WorldWideScience

Sample records for climatic regions

  1. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  2. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  3. Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Roebber, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We simulate the seasonal cycle of the Great Lakes' water temperature and lake ice using an idealized coupled lake-atmosphere-ice model. Under identical seasonally varying boundary conditions, this model exhibits more than one seasonally varying equilibrium solutions, which we associate with distinct regional climate regimes. Colder/warmer regimes are characterized by abundant/scarce amounts of wintertime ice and cooler/warmer summer temperatures, respectively. These regimes are also evident in the observations of the Great Lakes' climate variability over recent few decades, and are found to be most pronounced for Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, consistent with model predictions. Multiple climate regimes of the Great Lakes also play a crucial role in the accelerated warming of the lakes relative to the surrounding land regions in response to larger-scale global warming. We discuss the physical origin and characteristics of multiple climate regimes over the lakes, as well as their implications for a longer-term regional climate variability.

  4. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  5. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  6. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  7. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  8. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  9. Advancing Climate Dynamics Toward Reliable Regional Climate Projections

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE Shang-Ping

    2013-01-01

    With a scientific consensus reached regarding the anthropogenic effect on global mean temperature,developing reliable regional climate projections has emerged as a new challenge for climate science.A national project was launched in China in 2012 to study ocean's role in regional climate change.This paper starts with a review of recent advances in the study of regional climate response to global warming,followed by a description of the Chinese project including the rationale,objectives,and plan for field observations.The 15 research articles that follow in the special issue are highlighted,representing some of the initial results from the project.

  10. CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Belda; Petr Skalák; Aleš Farda; Tomáš Halenka; Michel Déqué; Gabriella Csima; Judit Bartholy; Csaba Torma; Constanta Boroneant; Mihaela Caian; Valery Spiridonov

    2015-01-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective...

  11. USGS Dynamical Downscaled Regional Climate

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by...

  12. Analysis of regional climate strategies in the Barents region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Himanen, S.; Inkeroeinen, J.; Latola, K.; Vaisanen, T.; Alasaarela, E.

    2012-11-15

    Climate change is a global phenomenon with especially harsh effects on the Arctic and northern regions. The Arctic's average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as elsewhere in the past few decades. Since 1966, the Arctic land area covered by snow in early summer has shrunk by almost a fifth. The Barents Region consists of the northern parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia (i.e. the European part of Russia). Climate change will cause serious impacts in the Barents Region because of its higher density of population living under harsh climatic conditions, thus setting it apart from other Arctic areas. In many cases, economic activities, like tourism, rely on certain weather conditions. For this reason, climate change and adaptation to it is of special urgency for the region. Regional climate change strategies are important tools for addressing mitigation and adaptation to climate change as they can be used to consolidate the efforts of different stakeholders of the public and private sectors. Regional strategies can be important factors in achieving the national and international goals. The study evaluated how the national climate change goals were implemented in the regional and local strategies and programmes in northern Finland. The specific goal was to describe the processes by which the regional strategies were prepared and implemented, and how the work was expanded to include the whole of northern Finland. Finally, the Finnish preparatory processes were compared to case examples of processes for preparing climate change strategies elsewhere in the Barents Region. This analysis provides examples of good practices in preparing a climate change strategy and implementing it. (orig.)

  13. Challenges in Modeling Regional Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    Precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff are vital to ecosystems and human activities. Predicting changes in the space-time characteristics of these water cycle processes has been a longstanding challenge in climate modeling. Different modeling approaches have been developed to allow high resolution to be achieved using available computing resources. Although high resolution is necessary to better resolve regional forcing and processes, improvements in simulating water cycle response are difficult to demonstrate and climate models have so far shown irreducible sensitivity to model resolution, dynamical framework, and physics parameterizations that confounds reliable predictions of regional climate change. Additionally, regional climate responds to both regional and global forcing but predicting changes in regional and global forcing such as related to land use/land cover and aerosol requires improved understanding and modeling of the dynamics of human-earth system interactions. Furthermore, regional response and regional forcing may be related through complex interactions that are dependent on the regional climate regimes, making decisions on regional mitigation and adaptation more challenging. Examples of the aforementioned challenges from on-going research and possible future directions will be discussed.

  14. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  15. "Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the

  16. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete

  17. Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil; Allen, Myles; Hall, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Projections of regional climate change have great utility for impact assessment at a local scale. The CORDEX climate projection framework presents a method of providing these regional projections by driving a regional climate model (RCM) with output from CMIP5 climate projection runs of global climate models (GCM). This produces an ensemble of regional climate projections, sampling the model uncertainty, the forcing uncertainty and the uncertainty of the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using the weather@home project to compute large ensembles of RCMs via volunteer distributed computing presents another method of generating projections of climate variables and also allows the sampling of the uncertainty due to internal variability. weather@home runs both a RCM and GCM on volunteer's home computers, with the free-running GCM driving the boundaries of the RCM. The GCM is an atmosphere only model and requires forcing at the lower boundary with sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. By constructing SST and SIC projections, using projections of GHG and other atmospheric gases, and running the weather@home RCM and GCM with these forcings, large ensembles of projections of climate variables at regional scales can be made. To construct the SSTs and SICs, a statistical model is built to represent the response of SST and SIC to increases in GHG concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This statistical model uses empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to represent the change in the long term trend of SSTs in the CMIP5 projections. A multivariate distribution of the leading principle components (PC) is produced using a copula and sampled to produce a timeseries of PCs which are recombined with the EOFs to generate a timeseries of SSTs, with internal variability added from observations. Hence, a large ensemble of SST projections is generated, with each SST

  18. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  19. Advance in Application of Regional Climate Models in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Wei; YAN Minhua; CHEN Panqin; XU Helan

    2008-01-01

    Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its changeprocess and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtainedon the following aspects: 1) the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoonprecipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summerrain belt and so on; 2) the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects (CO2 dou-bling) upon climate in the western China; and 3) the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, in-cluding the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil deg-radation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea con-trast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effectof vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the prefer-ences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made aboutthe application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.

  20. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  1. Satellite-based climate information within the WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obregón, A.; Nitsche, H.; Körber, M.; Kreis, A.; Bissolli, P.; Friedrich, K.; Rösner, S.

    2014-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) around the world to create science-based climate information on a regional scale within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The paper introduces the satellite component of the WMO Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) for Europe and the Middle East. The RCC-CM product portfolio is based on essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), spanning the atmospheric (radiation, clouds, water vapour) and terrestrial domains (snow cover, soil moisture). In the first part, the input data sets are briefly described, which are provided by the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) Satellite Application Facilities (SAF), in particular CM SAF, and by the ESA (European Space Agency) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). In the second part, the derived RCC-CM products are presented, which are divided into two groups: (i) operational monitoring products (e.g. monthly means and anomalies) based on near-real-time environmental data records (EDRs) and (ii) climate information records (e.g. climatologies, time series, trend maps) based on long-term thematic climate data records (TCDRs) with adequate stability, accuracy and homogeneity. The products are provided as maps, statistical plots and gridded data, which are made available through the RCC-CM website (www.dwd.de/rcc-cm).

  2. Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke D.

    2011-01-01

    We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

  3. Objective calibration of regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented

  4. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  5. The importance of buisiness climate and people climate on regional rerformance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Rikard; Hansen, Høgni Kalsø; Lindgren, Urban

    2014-01-01

    capita (GRP) at the regional level, this paper analyses the influence of business climate (business-friendly assets) and people climate (amenities). Based on panel-data regressions, it is shown that both business and people climate are related to regional performance. The exact nature...... of these relationships is, however, dependent on how both regional performance and business or people climate is defined....

  6. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob;

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that...

  7. Challenging some tenets of Regional Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laprise, R.; de Elía, R.; Caya, D.; Biner, S.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Diaconescu, E.; Leduc, M.; Alexandru, A.; Separovic, L.

    2008-08-01

    Nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are increasingly used for climate-change projections in order to achieve spatial resolutions that would be computationally prohibitive with coupled global climate models. RCMs are commonly thought to behave as a sort of sophisticated magnifying glass to perform dynamical downscaling, which is to add fine-scale details upon the large-scale flow provided as time-dependent lateral boundary condition. Regional climate modelling is a relatively new approach, initiated less than twenty years ago. The interest for the approach has grown rapidly as it offers a computationally affordable means of entering into appealing applications of timely societal relevance, such as high-resolution climate-change projections and seasonal prediction. There exists however a need for basic research aiming at establishing firmly the strengths and limitations of the technique. This paper synthesises the results of a stream of investigations on the merits and weaknesses of the nested approach, initiated almost a decade ago by some members of our team. This short paper revisits some commonly accepted notions amongst practitioners of Regional Climate Modelling, in the form of four tenets that will be challenged: (1) RCMs are capable of generating small-scale features absent in the driving fields supplied as lateral boundary conditions; (2) The generated small scales have the appropriate amplitudes and statistics; (3) The generated small scales accurately represent those that would be present in the driving data if it were not limited by resolution; (4) In performing dynamical downscaling, RCMs operate as a kind of sophisticated magnifying glass, in the sense that the small scales that are generated are uniquely defined for a given set of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). From the partial failure of the last two tenets emerges the notion of internal variability, which has often been thought to be negligible in one-way nested models due to the control

  8. Climate Impacts on Northern Canada: Regional Background

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowse, Terry D.; Peters, Daniel L. (Water and Climate Impacts Research Centre, Environment Canada, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)). e-mail: terry.prowse@ec.gc.caa; Furgal, Chris (Indigenous Environmental Studies Program, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON (Canada)); Bonsal, Barrie R. (National Water Research Inst., National Hydrology Research Centre, Environment Canada, Saskatoon, SK (Canada))

    2009-07-15

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 deg C in the south to as low as -20 deg C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be >700 mm y-1 in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y-1 over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  9. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  10. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  11. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  12. Climate Change and Migration in the MENA Region

    OpenAIRE

    Wodon, Quentin; Liverani, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and climate-induced migration (Foresight, 2011) are major global concerns. This is true for the MENA region as well. Yet empirical data on how perceptions of climate change and weather shocks affect migration in the region are scarce. To what extent are perceived and actual weather shocks and changes in the environment driving temporary and permanent migration flows? Do remi...

  13. Anthropogenic climate change in the Playa Lakes Joint Venture region

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Anthropogenic climate change has been driving regional climate shifts in the Playa Lakes Joint Venture zone since at least the mid 1970s. As a result, summers are...

  14. The direct impact of climate change on regional labour productivity

    OpenAIRE

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Kovats, R Sari; Simon J. Lloyd; Holt, Tom; Richard S.J. Tol

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change will increase outdoor and indoor heat loads, and may impair health and productivity for millions of working people. This study applies physiological evidence about effects of heat, climate guidelines for safe work environments, climate modelling and global distributions of working populations, to estimate the impact of two climate scenarios on future labour productivity. In most regions, climate change will decrease labour productivity, under the simple assumption of no ...

  15. Assessing the Transferability of the Regional Climate Model REMO to Different COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The transferability of the regional climate model REMO with a standard setup over different regions of the world has been evaluated. The study is based on the idea that the modeling parameters and parameterizations in a regional climate model should be robust to adequately simulate the major climatic characteristic of different regions around the globe. If a model is not able to do that, there might be a chance of an “overtuning” to the “home-region”, which means that the model physics are tuned in a way that it might cover some more fundamental errors, e.g., in the dynamics. All simulations carried out in this study contribute to the joint effort by the international regional downscaling community called COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX. REMO has been integrated over six CORDEX domains forced with the so-called perfect boundary conditions obtained from the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for the period 1989 to 2008. These six domains include Africa, Europe, North America, South America, West Asia and the Mediterranean region. Each of the six simulations was conducted with the identical model setup which allows investigating the transferability of a single model to regions with substantially different climate characteristics. For the consistent evaluation over the different domains, a new evaluation framework is presented by combining the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification with temperature-precipitation relationship plots and a probability density function (PDF skill score method. The evaluation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated precipitation and temperature, in comparison to observational datasets, shows that REMO is able to simulate the mean annual climatic features over all the domains quite reasonably, but still some biases remain. The regions over the Amazon and near the coast of major upwelling regions have a significant warm bias. Wet and dry biases appear over the

  16. Regional Collaborations to Combat Climate Change: The Climate Science Centers as Strategies for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, T. L.; Palmer, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The consortium approach taken by the CSCs allows the academic side of the Centers to gather expertise across departments, disciplines, and even institutions. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach. Partnership with the federal government facilitates interactions with the key on-the-ground stakeholders who are able to operationalize the results and conclusions of that research, monitor the progress of management actions, and provide feedback to refine future methodology and decisions as new information on climate impacts is discovered. For example, NE CSC researchers are analyzing the effect of climate change on the timing and volume of seasonal and annual streamflows and the concomitant effects on ecological and cultural resources; developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; studying the effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought and stream temperature on brook trout habitats, spatial distribution and population persistence; and conducting assessments of northeastern regional climate projections and high-resolution downscaling. Project methods are being developed in collaboration with stakeholders and results are being shared broadly with federal, state, and other partners to implement and refine effective and adaptive management actions.

  17. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2015-07-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  18. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2016-10-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  19. Climatic regionalization mapping of the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area,Australia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Demin Zhou; Shahbaz Khan; Akhtar Abbas; Tariq Rana; Haiying Zhang; Yun Chen

    2009-01-01

    In this study,spatial analysis techniques were used to generate climatic zoning maps of the East Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA),Australia.Long term climate data were used to analyze and assess regional climatic variation by cluster analysis in a GIS environment.Based on thermal and moisture factors,four variables were chosen to develop climate zones.These variables include annual average rainfalls,annual average ETc,annual average Growing Day Degree (GDD) and daily average temperature generated from daily climate data of 36 years (1971-2006) on 12 local weather stations as the fundamental elements of regional climate characteristics.GIS-based spatial analysis models are used to map climate sub-regions from sets of climatic parameters derived from regional climate data sources.Two climate zoning schemes are presented by integration of spatial interpolation,spatial cluster analysis and climate indices methods.One scheme comes with the two climate zones of the West and the East based on spatial cluster analysis according to selected climatic variables,and the other comes with the three comprehensive hydro-thermal zones and the six hydro-thermal balance zones.

  20. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  1. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in regional climate change projections over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alo, C. A.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2009-09-01

    Recent projections of climate change over the Mediterranean region based on general circulation models (e.g. IPCC AR4 GCMs) and regional climate models (e.g. PRUDENCE RCMs) generally show strong warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially in the summer. While the role of vegetation in modulating the regional climate is widely recognized, most, if not all, of these GCM and RCM climate change projections do not account for the response of the dynamic biosphere to potential climate changes. Here, we present preliminary results from ongoing 15-year simulations over the Mediterranean region with a regional climate model (RegCM3) asynchronously coupled to a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-DGVM). Three experiments are performed in order to explore the impact of vegetation feedback on simulated changes in mean climate, climate variability and extreme climatic events (i.e., flood-inducing storms, droughts, heat waves, and extreme winds). This includes 1) a present day climate run with dynamic vegetation, 2) a future climate run with dynamic vegetation, and 3) a future climate run with static vegetation (i.e. vegetation fixed at the present day state). RegCM3 and CLM-DGVM are both run at a horizontal grid spacing of 20 km over a region covering the Mediterranean basin and parts of Central Europe and Northern Africa. Results illustrate the importance of including vegetation feedback in predictions of climate change impacts on Mediterranean climate variability, extreme climatic events and storms.

  2. Possible (water sensitive) mitigation strategies for the urban climate in a regional climate modelling context

    OpenAIRE

    Demuzere, Matthias; Coutts, Andrew; Van Lipzig, Nicole

    2012-01-01

    Urban climate models provide a useful tool for assessing the impacts of urban land surface modification on urban climates. It provides a mechanism for trialling different scenarios for urban heat island mitigation. Only recently, urban land surfaces have been included in global and regional climate models. Often they represent a trade-off between the complexity of the biophysical processes of the urban canopy layer and the computational demands in order to be workable on regional climate time...

  3. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  4. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  5. Climate Change and Migration in the MENA Region: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Wodon, Quentin; Liverani, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and migration are major concerns in the MENA region, yet the empirical evidence on the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on migration remains limited. Information is broadly lacking on how households in vulnerable areas perceive changes in the climate, how they are affected by extreme weather events, whether they benefit from community and government programs to help them cope with and adapt to a changing climate, and how these conditions influence the decisio...

  6. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes...

  7. Regional Climate Modeling over South America: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvina A. Solman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This review summarizes the progress achieved on regional climate modeling activities over South America since the early efforts at the beginning of the 2000s until now. During the last 10 years, simulations with regional climate models (RCMs have been performed for several purposes over the region. Early efforts were mainly focused on sensitivity studies to both physical mechanisms and technical aspects of RCMs. The last developments were focused mainly on providing high-resolution information on regional climate change. This paper describes the most outstanding contributions from the isolated efforts to the ongoing coordinated RCM activities in the framework of the CORDEX initiative, which represents a major endeavor to produce ensemble climate change projections at regional scales and allows exploring the associated range of uncertainties. The remaining challenges in modeling South American climate features are also discussed.

  8. [Climatic suitability of single cropping rice planting region in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ju-Qi; Zhou, Guang-Sheng

    2012-02-01

    To clarify the leading climate factors affecting the distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China at national and annual temporal scales and to reveal the potential distribution and climatic suitability divisions of this planting region in China could not only provide scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of single cropping rice production, modifying planting pattern, and introducing fine varieties, but also ensure the food security of China. In this paper, the potential climate factors affecting the single cropping rice distribution in China at regional and annual scales were selected from related literatures, and the single cropping rice geographic information from the national agro-meteorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and spatial analyst function of Arc-GIS software, were adopted to clarify the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, and to construct a model about the relationships between the potential distribution of the planting region and the climate. The results showed that annual precipitation, moisture index, and days of not less than 18 degrees C stably were the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, with their cumulative contribution rate reached 94.5% of all candidate climate factors. The model constructed in this paper could well simulate the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China. According to the appearance frequency, the low, medium and high climatic suitability divisions of single cropping rice planting region in China were clarified, and the climate characteristics of the planting region in each climatic suitability division were analyzed. PMID:22586968

  9. Assessing Climate Change Induced Turnover in Bird Communities Using Climatically Analogous Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Janine Sybertz; Michael Reich

    2015-01-01

    It is crucial to define and quantify possible impacts of climate change on wildlife in order to be able to pre-adapt management strategies for nature conservation. Thus, it is necessary to assess which species might be affected by climatic changes, especially at the regional scale. We present a novel approach to estimate possible climate change induced turnovers in bird communities and apply this method to Lüneburg Heath, a region in northern Germany. By comparing species pools of future clim...

  10. STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF AGRARIAN SPHERE AND RECREATION IN THE ALTAI REGIONS, RUSSIA, UNDER REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    KRASNOYAROVA B.A.; KHARLAMOVA N.F.; SHARABARINA S.N.; PLUTALOVA T.G.; INDYUKOVA M.A.; GARMS E.O.

    2015-01-01

    The object of research is the territory of the Altai regions of Russia, in particular, Altai Krai and the Republic of Altai. It combines cultural and natural landscapes of the zonal steppe and forest-steppe areas and mountain altitudinal belts distinguished by a variety of climatic conditions. The analysis of possible climate changes in the Altai region showed a predominant development of land aridization under the reduction of humidity under a significant regional warming. The climate change...

  11. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    OpenAIRE

    A. Stenke; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; J. Gröbner; L. Maag; Brönnimann, Stefan; Peter, T

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a differ...

  12. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    OpenAIRE

    A. Stenke; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; J. Gröbner; L. Maag; S. Brönnimann; Peter, T

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on Earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a...

  13. Landcare and climate change: a regional perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Bass Coast in Victoria represents a microcosm of the wide range of issues on which climate change will impact. It is experiencing rapid demographic change as sea and tree change populations increase, it adjoins the urban fringe of Melbourne, it includes Victoria's most popular eco-tourism and other recreational tourism areas, and it continues to be an important agricultural production area. The area has been one of the most reliable climate zones in Australia, but it is predicted to be one of the most affected by climate change. Landcare is a community-based, government and corporate-funded national organisation established for over twenty years. Landcare has been responsible for developing a positive attitude to sustainable and productive land management and implementing landscape scale environmental improvement. In Bass Coast it faces a broad range of problems related to climate change and it suffers from a scarcity of science-based information on which to base strategic direction. Given the very long-term nature of climate change and the equally long-term nature of Bass Coast Landcare Network environmental programs, it is essential to have more evidence based information and the need is urgent. Examples: Vegetation species for future climate and robustness of indigenous vegetation; Water supplies for livestock and wildlife while maintaining environmental flows; Salinity issues, soil structure and health issues; Testing and extending changed farming practices as seasons change Specific research/information needs: Growth rates at higher C02, especially woody weeds; Assessment of evaporation prevention options for farm dams (urgently needed); Options for harvesting stormwater and storage for both agriculture and wildlife use; A flexible and simple template for objectively assessing the costs and benefits of changing farming practices; Localised information on likely reduction in run-off under lower rainfall conditions. Communities will face a

  14. Building a Regional Collaborative for Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherba, O.; Carlton, C.

    2015-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has a strong community of environmental educators with an articulated interest in expanding, elevating, and strengthening climate change programming. Based in this community, a group of educators identified a strong need for and interest in collaborating to increase capacity and knowledge, support pilot testing, and implement climate change best practices in educational and interpretive programs. Since its inception, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative has brought together over 25 organizations, ranging from wildlife refuges to nonprofit education centers and city park agencies. While still in its nascent phase, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative exemplifies the power of collective impact. With the backbone support of the Institute at the Golden Gate, the Collaborative has developed a common agenda and is making strides towards developing common measures of success. The initial development stages of this group present an interesting case study and highlight some of the challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned for others seeking to build their own collective impact initiative.

  15. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework ...

  16. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Gao, X.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections (using different climate policies), the climate system response (represented by different values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing), natural variability (by perturbing initial conditions) and structural uncertainty (using different climate models). The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an intermediate complexity earth system model (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the United States is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Secondly, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that uncertainty in temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to precipitation changes, with natural variability having a large impact in the first part of the 21st century. Overall, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty in future projections of climate change over the United States. In light of these results, we recommend that when investigating climate change impacts over specific regions, studies consider all four sources of uncertainty analyzed in this paper.

  17. Solar influence on global and regional climates

    OpenAIRE

    Lockwood, Mike

    2012-01-01

    The literature relevant to how solar variability influences climate is vast—but much has been based on inadequate statistics and non-robust procedures. The common pitfalls are outlined in this review. The best estimates of the solar influence on the global mean air surface temperature show relatively small effects, compared with the response to anthropogenic changes (and broadly in line with their respective radiative forcings). However, the situation is more interesting when o...

  18. Estimating the impacts of climate change on Brazilian regions

    OpenAIRE

    Azzoni, Carlos; Haddad, Eduardo

    2011-01-01

    An integrated approach projects the economic impacts from climate change and adaptation and mitigation policies, explicitly considering the various territorial scales in Brazil (macro-regions, states, micro-regions, and networks of cities). A computable general equilibrium (GCE) model was used to simulate two climate change-free scenarios regarding the future of Brazil’s economy that are consistent with the global economic development trends under IPCC’s scenarios A2 and B2. Climate shock...

  19. Assessing Climate Change Induced Turnover in Bird Communities Using Climatically Analogous Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janine Sybertz

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available It is crucial to define and quantify possible impacts of climate change on wildlife in order to be able to pre-adapt management strategies for nature conservation. Thus, it is necessary to assess which species might be affected by climatic changes, especially at the regional scale. We present a novel approach to estimate possible climate change induced turnovers in bird communities and apply this method to Lüneburg Heath, a region in northern Germany. By comparing species pools of future climatically analogous regions situated in France with the Lüneburg Heath species pool, we detected possible trends for alterations within the regional bird community in the course of climate change. These analyses showed that the majority of bird species in Lüneburg Heath will probably be able to tolerate the projected future climate conditions, but that bird species richness, in general, may decline. Species that might leave the community were often significantly associated with inland wetland habitats, but the proportion of inland wetlands within the regions had a significant influence on the magnitude of this effect. Our results suggest that conservation efforts in wetlands have to be strengthened in light of climate change because many species are, in principle, able to tolerate future climate conditions if sufficient habitat is available.

  20. Extreme precipitation and climate gradients in Patagonia revealed by high-resolution regional atmospheric climate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Wessem, J.M.; van de Berg, W.J.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L.H.; Schaefer, M.

    2014-01-01

    This study uses output of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model to describe the present-day (1979–2012) climate of Patagonia, with a particular focus on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Patagonian ice fields. Through a comparison with available in situ observations, it i

  1. Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections

    OpenAIRE

    Beniston, Martin; Stephenson, David B.; Christensen, Ole B.; Ferro, Christopher A. T.; Frei, Christoph; Goyette, Stéphane; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Holt, Tom; Jylhä, Kirsti; Koffi, Brigitte; Palutikof, Jean; Schöll, Regina; Semmler, Tido; Woth, Katja

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961–90) and future (2071–2100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves – Regional surface warming causes the fre...

  2. Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region

    OpenAIRE

    Wodon, Quentin; Burger, Nicholas; Grant, Audra; Liverani, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. Other coping and adaptation strategies include changing the household’s sources of livelihood, and selling assets or taking other emergency measures in cases of losses due to extreme weather events. Yet while there is a bur...

  3. Verification of regional climate models over the territory of Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakovska, S.; Palamarchuk, L.; Shedemenko, I.; Djukel, G.; Gnatjuk, N.

    2009-04-01

    Verification of regional climate models (RCMs) over the territory of Ukraine was the first stage of the National project for assessment of possible climate change and its impact on the economic and social life in Ukraine in XXI century. Since Ukraine has pretty different climates in different parts, the territory of Ukraine was divided on 11 regions with more or less uniform climate conditions: 7 almost equal in space regions in plain terrain, 2 - in coastal zones near the Black and Azov seas and 2 - in the Carpathian and the Crimean mountains. Verification of RCMs for climate characteristics was carried out for each defined region separately. Data of meteorological network in Ukraine (187 stations) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU 10-min global data-set) for multy-year monthly, season and annual means of temperature and precipitation for the period 1961-90 were used for verification of models' results. Two RCMs were used in the analysis of the past climate of Ukraine: REMO (MPI-M, Hamburg) and RegCM3 (ICTP, Trieste). Both models were constructed with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-40 data-set with horizontal spacing of ~25 km and vertically 27 (REMO) and 18 (RegCM3) Z-σ levels. In a whole, both models demonstrated better ability for temperature than precipitation characteristics. Very high correlation of 0.9 was found between models, network and CRU for temperatures and 0.7-0.8 for precipitation. Generally, models were warmer especially for summer months up to 2 oC. More precipitation in the models was found for winter season and less - for summer and in the mountainous subregions comparably with observations. In perspective we intend to run RCMs initialized with GCMs for the same period and for XXI century and account for the obtained systematic models' errors in the analysis of possible climate change over the territory of Ukraine.

  4. Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayten Erol

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

  5. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m−2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  6. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

  7. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of Earth tempering as a practice and of specific Earth sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground are included. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 20 locations in the United States.

  8. The WASCAL regional climate simulations for West Africa - how to add value to existing climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnault, J.; Heinzeller, D.; Klein, C.; Dieng, D.; Smiatek, G.; Bliefernicht, J.; Sylla, M. B.; Kunstmann, H.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) is a large-scale research-focused program designed to enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate change and increased variability. An integral part of its climate services is the provisioning of a new set of high resolution, ensemble-based regional climate change scenarios for the region of West Africa. In this contribution, we present the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate projections and provide information on the dissemination of the data. We discuss the model performance over the validation period for two of the three regional climate models employed, the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM), and give details about a novel precipitation database used to verify the models. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained from the WRF model runs for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX project. As an example, the figure shows the different climate change signals obtained for the total annual rainfall with respect to the 1980-2010 mean (WRF-E: WASCAL 12km high-resolution run MPI-ESM + WRFV3.5.1, CORDEX-E: 50km medium-resolution run MPI-ESM + RCA4, CORDEX-G: 50km medium-resolution run GFDL-ESM + RCA4).

  9. Leadership within regional climate change adaptation networks: the case of climate adaptation officers in Northern Hesse, Germany

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiller, S.J.; Meijerink, S.V.

    2016-01-01

    In the climate adaptation literature, leadership tends to be an understudied factor, although it may be crucial for regional adaptation governance. This article shows how leadership can be usefully conceptualized and operationalized within regional governance networks dealing with climate adaptation

  10. Climate in Context - How partnerships evolve in regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parris, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    In 2015, NOAA's RISA program will celebrate its 20th year of exploration in the development of usable climate information. In the mid-1990s, a vision emerged to develop interdisciplinary research efforts at the regional scale for several important reasons. Recognizable climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerge at the regional level where our understanding of observations and models coalesce. Critical resources for society are managed in a context of regional systems, such as water supply and human populations. Multiple scales of governance (local, state, and federal) with complex institutional relationships can be examined across a region. Climate information (i.e. data, science, research etc) developed within these contexts has greater potential for use. All of this work rests on a foundation of iterative engagement between scientists and decision makers. Throughout these interactions, RISAs have navigated diverse politics, extreme events and disasters, socio-economic and ecological disruptions, and advances in both science and technology. Our understanding of information needs is evolving into a richer understanding of complex institutional, legal, political, and cultural contexts within which people can use science to make informed decisions. The outcome of RISA work includes both cases where climate information was used in decisions and cases where capacity for using climate information and making climate resilient decisions has increased over time. In addition to balancing supply and demand of scientific information, RISAs are engaged in a social process of reconciling climate information use with important drivers of society. Because partnerships are critical for sustained engagement, and because engagement is critically important to the use of science, the rapid development of new capacity in regionally-based science programs focused on providing climate decision support is both needed and challenging. New actors can bolster

  11. The consistency evaluation of the climate version of the Eta regional forecast model developed for regional climate downscaling

    CERN Document Server

    Pisnichenko, I A

    2007-01-01

    The regional climate model prepared from Eta WS (workstation) forecast model has been integrated over South America with the horizontal resolution of 40 km for the period of 1961-1977. The model was forced at its lateral boundaries by the outputs of HadAMP. The data of HadAMP represent the simulation of modern climate with the resolution about150 km. In order to prepare climate regional model from the Eta forecast model was added new blocks and multiple modifications and corrections was made in the original model. The running of climate Eta model was made on the supercomputer SX-6. The detailed analysis of the results of dynamical downscaling experiment includes an investigation of a consistency between the regional and AGCM models as well as of ability of the regional model to resolve important features of climate fields on the finer scale than that resolved by AGCM. In this work we show the results of our investigation of the consistency of the output fields of the Eta model and HadAMP. We have analysed geo...

  12. Regional Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayhoe, K.; Burkett, V.; Grimm, N.; McCarthy, J.; Miles, E.; Overpeck, J.; Shea, E.; Wuebbles, D.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will affect one region differently from another. For that reason, the U.S. Unified Synthesis Product "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" broke down its assessment of climate change impacts on the country into 8 regions. Key highlights include: In the Northeast, agricultural production, including dairy, fruit, and maple syrup, will be increasingly affected as favorable climates shift northward. In the Southeast, accelerated sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity will have serious impacts. In the Midwest, under higher emissions scenarios, significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels will impact shipping, infrastructure, beaches, and ecosystems. In the Great Plains, projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency exacerbate concerns regarding the region's declining water resources. In the Southwest, water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for trade-offs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict. In the Northwest, salmon and other cold-water species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows. In Alaska, thawing permafrost damages roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. And in the U.S. islands in the Caribbean and Pacific, climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. In addition, significant sea-level rise and storm surge will affect coastal cities and ecosystems around the nation; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable.

  13. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Overview of Climate Change Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2012-04-01

    NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using six different regional climate models (RCMs ) and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within four atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. Insufficient funding was available to simulate all 24 combinations of RCMs and AOGCMs. Thus, we used a balanced fractional factorial statistical design to reduce the number of combinations of RCM-AOGCM pairs to twelve. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. The geographic domain was regionalized into 29 subregions based on common climatological features, and summary climate change statistics for each of the subregions have been produced. In this overview talk, results from the RCM climate change simulations for select subregions of North America will be presented.

  14. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  15. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro;

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere......-wave coupling on the atmosphere as well as on wave parameters. The model components are the regional climate model RCA, and the third generation wave model WAM. Two different methods are used for the coupling, using the roughness length and only including the effect of growing sea, and using the wave age...... in climate models for a realistic description of processes over sea....

  16. Partnerships in the Polar Regions: Climate to Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warburton, J.; Bartholow, S.

    2013-12-01

    PolarTREC (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating) is a program in which K-12 teachers spend 2-6 weeks participating in hands-on field research experiences in the polar regions which focus heavily on climate change and climate science. The goal of PolarTREC is to invigorate polar science education and understanding by bringing K-12 educators and polar researchers together. Through teachers, climate understanding can be shaped for the future by having scientifically literate students entering the workforce. Alone, PolarTREC reaches a myriad of classrooms throughout the country. With new partnerships of the National Park Service and Alaska Geographic, we developed additional field experiences in climate change education for teachers. Campaigns for climate literacy do impact students but are only effective with well-trained, experienced teachers. Our programmatic goal is to expand the opportunities for PolarTREC teachers to share their involvement in science with additional formal and informal educators. 'Teaching the teachers' will reach additional audiences in media, policy, and classrooms. Modeling this program, we designed and conducted teacher trainings on climate science in Denali National Park. Utilizing expert university faculty and park managers in climate science and PolarTREC alumni teachers, the program was touted as 'the best professional opportunity to date". This program gave new teachers the tools to adequately communicate climate science for a generation of scientifically literate students. This presentation will outline the practices used in creating and implementing a climate literacy program for teachers through partnerships that will effectively influence student learning.

  17. Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

    2011-12-01

    According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

  18. The role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, Sander; Stiller, Sabina; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Scholten, Peter; Smits, Robert; Lamoen, van Frank

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to better understand the role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation. We first present a framework, which distinguishes five functions of leadership within inter-organizational networks: the connective, enabling, adaptive, political–administrative and dissemination fu

  19. Modeling of Regional Climate over Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2011-04-09

    Observations, re-analyses, and climate model simulations show strong surface temperature trends in Middle East and Arabian Peninsula in the last 30 years. Trends are especially pronounced in summer exceeding +1K/decade. However, some regions, e.g., the So

  20. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  1. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  2. Spatial connectivity of urban clusters and regional climate effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, G.; Hu, Y.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid urbanization in East Asia in past three decades is considered as a remarkable process that featured with expansion of urban clusters and tightened linkages within and among clusters. Such process could lead to much larger scale climate effects, and could even contribute to sub-regional and regional climate change. In large area of urban clusters with significant expansion of built-up in relatively short period, local urban heat islands could contribute to sub-regional climate forcing. Here we use visible/near infrared and thermal infrared satellite data to estimate multiple scale structure of urban clusters, and to assess effects of urban heat islands at local and regional scales in East Asia. Our estimates of urban extent were greater than previously reported in most global datasets. Strong spatial connection and internal expansion were found in major urban clusters in past 30 years, and was accelerated in past 10 years. Many city clusters were merging into each other, with gradual blurring boundaries and disappearing of gaps among member cities. Cities and towns were more connected with roads and commercial corridors, while wildland and urban greens became more isolated as patches among built-up areas. We would argue that in many cases in this region, urban clusters are no longer "islands", they are now "seas" in term of climate related urban canopy. Urban greens such as parks and plantation were long recognized for their cooling effects that buffer the urban heat island effect, however, such cooling effects tend to be weakened as their patches became smaller and isolated, and over dominated by urban surfaces. There were significant positive relations between urban fraction and urban heat island effects as demonstrated by VNIR and TIR data from multiple satellites. Those new estimates are expected to effectively improve climate simulation for better understanding the impacts of inter-connected urban clusters on air temperature, precipitation, wind speed

  3. Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, D. G.; Marshall, G. J.; Connolley, W. M.; Parkinson, C.; Mulvaney, R.; Hodgson, D. A.; King, J. C.; Pudsey, C. J.; Turner, J.

    2002-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that global warming was 0.6 ñ 0.2 degrees C during the 20th Century and cited increases in greenhouse gases as a likely contributor. But this average conceals the complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally biased, decadally variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming ? substantially more rapid than the global mean. We discuss the spatial and temporal significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. New analyses of station records show no ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming but significant RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. We investigate the likelihood that this could be amplification of a global warming, and use climate-proxy data to indicate that this RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia and unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. We can show a strong connection between RRR warming and reduced sea-ice duration in an area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process causes the RRR warming, and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining it is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.

  4. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Batlle Bayer

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation might amplify (positive feedback or dampen (negative feedback the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle. Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature.

    When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback. Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback. In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one.

    Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC. In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES and Integrated Assessment (IA modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  5. Mid-Holocene regional reorganization of climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. W. Wirtz

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We integrate 130 globally distributed proxy time series to refine the understanding of climate variability during the Holocene. Cyclic anomalies and temporal trends in periodicity from the Lower to the Upper Holocene are extracted by combining Lomb-Scargle Fourier-transformed spectra with bootstrapping. Results were cross-checked by counting events in the time series. Main outcomes are: First, the propensity of the climate system to fluctuations is a region specific property. Many records of adjacent sites reveal a similar change in variability although they belong to different proxy types (e.g., δ18O, lithic composition. Secondly, at most sites, irreversible change occured in the Mid-Holocene. We suggest that altered ocean circulation together with slightly modified coupling intensity between regional climate subsystems around the 5.5 kyr BP event (termination of the African Humid Period were responsible for the shift. Fluctuations especially intensified along a pan-American corridor. This may have led to an unequal crisis probability for early human civilizations in the Old and New World. Our study did not produce evidence for millennial scale cyclicity in some solar activity proxies for the Upper Holocene, nor for a privileged role of the prominent 250, 550, 900 and 1450 yr cycles. This lack of global periodicities corroborates the regional character of climate variability.

  6. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  7. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  8. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  9. Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lionello

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

  10. Simulations of LGM climate of East Asia by regional climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑益群; 于革; 王苏民; 薛滨; 刘华强; 曾新民

    2003-01-01

    Climate conditions in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were remarkably different from the present ones. Adopting a regional climate model (RCM) which has included a detailed land surface scheme, LGM climate of East Asia has been simulated. The effects of vegetation changes on LGM climate have been diagnosed by adding forces of LGM paleovegetation reconstructed from the geological records. The results of the simulations by RCM indicate that large decreases in whole year temperature of East Asia continent caused strongly enhanced winter monsoon and weakened summer monsoon. The strengthening and westward-stretching of the Subtropical High of West-Pacific are the key reasons of decreases of LGM summer precipitation in eastern China. Precipitation and effective precipitation were increased in the Tibetan Plateau and Middle-Asia, while the humid condition in the Tibetan Plateau was mainly caused by increase of precipitation. Accumulated snow of LGM was also increased in the Tibetan Plateau, which was helpful to developing glacier and permafrost. This experiment has simulated that the frozen soil areas extend southward to 30°N. In LGM climate simulation, climate effects caused by external forces were amplified by added paleovegetation, therefore, decreases of temperature, changes of precipitation and snowfall, and other climatic parameters were further strengthened, making the simulation results more approach to geological evidences.

  11. Implementation of a parallel version of a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstengarbe, F.W. [ed.; Kuecken, M. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Schaettler, U. [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main (Germany). Geschaeftsbereich Forschung und Entwicklung

    1997-10-01

    A regional climate model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meterology and the German Climate Computing Centre in Hamburg based on the `Europa` and `Deutschland` models of the German Weather Service has been parallelized and implemented on the IBM RS/6000 SP computer system of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research including parallel input/output processing, the explicit Eulerian time-step, the semi-implicit corrections, the normal-mode initialization and the physical parameterizations of the German Weather Service. The implementation utilizes Fortran 90 and the Message Passing Interface. The parallelization strategy used is a 2D domain decomposition. This report describes the parallelization strategy, the parallel I/O organization, the influence of different domain decomposition approaches for static and dynamic load imbalances and first numerical results. (orig.)

  12. Model experiments on climate change in the Tokyo metropolitan area using regional climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.

    2011-12-01

    There is a possibility that the future atmospheric warming leads to more frequent heavy rainfall in the metropolitan area, thereby increasing the risk of floods. As part of REsearch Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, we started numerical model experiments for investigating the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in water hazard assessments in the metropolitan area by the use of regional climate scenarios. The model experiments adopt dynamical downscaling techniques. Future climate projections obtained from regional climate model simulations at 20 km horizontal grid spacing are downscaled into finer grids (less than 5 km resolutions) of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0 modified by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED-RAMS). Prior to performing the dynamical downscaling experiments, the NIED-RAMS model biases are evaluated by comparing long-term surface meteorological observations with results of the model simulations that are carried out by using the Japanese Re-Analysis (JRA) data and Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model outputs as the initial and boundary conditions.

  13. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  14. Planetary boundary layer energetics simulated from a regional climate model over Europe for present climate and climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, E.; Yagüe, C.; Gaertner, M. A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a description of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) for current (1960-1990) and future (2070-2100) climate periods as obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) centered on the Mediterranean basin. Vertically integrated turbulent kinetic energy (TKEZ) and boundary layer height (z i ) are used to describe PBL energetics. Present climate shows a TKEZ annual cycle with a clear summer maximum for southern regions, while northern regions of Europe exhibit a smoother or even a lack of cycle. Future climate conditions exhibit a similar behaviour, with an increase in the summer maximum peaks. A detailed analysis of summer surface climate change energetics over land shows an increased Bowen ratio and decreases in the evaporative fraction. The enhanced sensible heat flux responsible for these results causes an energy surplus inside the PBL, resulting in increased convective activity and corresponding TKEZ. These results are consistent with temperature increases obtained by several other model simulations, and also indicate that changes in the turbulent transport from the PBL to the free troposphere can affect atmospheric circulations.

  15. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavita Tariyal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayan region represents enormous variability of climates, hydrological and ecological systems, plus a diversity of cultures and communities. It is an essentiality to the ecological security of the Indian landmass, through providing forest cover, feeding recurrent rivers that are the source of potable water, irrigation, and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich foundation for high value agriculture, and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the troposphere and the consequential global warming is posing a great environmental threat to water and food security at universal level. Change in climate may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. This potential variability in climate will have a serious impact on several ecosystem services, such as cleaning water and removing carbon from the atmosphere. Various services of ecosystems viz. land and water resources, agriculture, biodiversity will experience a wide range of stresses together with pests and pathogens, invasive species, atmospheric pollution, acute events, wildfires and floods. Direct stresses posed due to climate change may get intensified through high temperatures, reduced water availability, and altered frequency of extreme events and severe storms. Climate change will potentially make a threat on the availability of, and access to, water resources. The Himalayan ecosystem is vulnerable to the impacts and consequences of a changes on account of natural causes, b climate change resulting from human-induced emissions and c developmental paradigms of the modern society. Adaptation factors in the element of ‘sustainability’ into development initiatives and provides for additional measures and resources to safeguard environmental gains against climate impacts.

  16. A review on regional convection permitting climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lipzig, Nicole; Prein, Andreas; Brisson, Erwan; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Demuzere, Matthias; Saeed, Sajjad; Stengel, Martin

    2016-04-01

    With the increase of computational resources, it has recently become possible to perform climate model integrations where at least part the of convection is resolved. Since convection-permitting models (CPMs) are performing better than models where convection is parameterized, especially for high-impact weather like extreme precipitation, there is currently strong scientific progress in this research domain (Prein et al., 2015). Another advantage of CPMs, that have a horizontal grid spacing challenging task due to compensating deficiencies that currently exist in `state-of-the-art' models, yielding a good representation of average climate conditions. In the light of using CPMs to study climate change it is necessary that these deficiencies are addressed in future research. Coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs. Brisson, E., K. Van Weverberg, M. Demuzere, A. Devis, S. Saeed, M. Stengel, N.P.M. van Lipzig, 2016. How well can a convection-permitting climate model reproduce 1 decadal statistics of precipitation, temperature and cloud characteristics? Clim. Dyn. (minor revisions). Prein, Andreas F., Wolfgang Langhans, Giorgia Fosser, Andrew Ferrone, Nikolina Ban, Klaus Goergen, Michael Keller, Merja Tölle, Oliver Gutjahr, Frauke Feser, Erwan Brisson, Stefan Kollet, Juerg Schmidli, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Ruby Leung. (2015) A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Reviews of Geophysics 53:10.1002/rog.v53.2, 323-361

  17. Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

    1994-01-01

    The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

  18. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Region

  19. Etude Climat no. 36 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans: a tool for guiding the energy and climate transition in French regions'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: The Regional Climate-Air-Energy Plan (SRCAE - Schema Regional Climat-Air-Energie) was introduced by the Grenelle II legislation. The Plans are co-authored by the State through its decentralised services and the 'Conseil Regionaux' (regional councils) with the objective to guide climate and energy policy in the 26 French regions through to 2020 and 2050. Starting from an assessment of regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the SRCAE establishes energy transition scenarios based on the sectoral and structural guidelines that constitute the principal framework of the regional strategy. This report offers a detailed analysis of the strategies chosen by the various Regions for a successful transition to low-carbon energy sources, via the study of eleven SRCAEs that were opened to public consultation before the end of July 2012 (Alsace, Aquitaine, Auvergne, Bourgogne, Centre, Champagne-Ardenne, Ile-de-France, Midi-Pyrenees, Nord-Pas de Calais, Picardie and Rhone-Alpes regions). The wide range of methodologies used by the Regions, both to draw up their inventories of GHG emissions and for their scenarios, means that a quantitative comparison between regions or against the national objectives is not possible. Nevertheless, the report establishes a typology of regions and identifies policies that are common to all regions and those chosen in response to local characteristics. Certain guidelines could be applied by other regions of the same type, or could feed into discussions at national level. The report also indicates that the SRCAEs go beyond the competencies of the Regions, highlighting the role of local, national and European decision-making in the success of a regional energy transition. Particular attention was paid to the building and transport sectors, often identified as having the largest potential for reducing

  20. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  1. Point Climat no. 26 'Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans at the heart of the debate on the energy transition'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: On the eve of the introduction of the environmental assessment procedure for planning documents, almost all Regional Climate - Air - Energy Plans have now been published. This Climate Brief assesses regional climate strategies, which rely on significant commitment from those involved, including citizens by changing their behaviour, companies by improving their energy efficiency and the banking sector through financial support. Identification of these challenges and areas for action will feed into the national debate on energy transition which began last autumn

  2. Cenozoic climate and paleogeographic changes in the Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Ogasawara, K.; Wolfe, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    This special issue represents the proceedings of the symposium, held as part of the 29th International Geological Congress, 1992. Other relevant papers on Cainozoic climate change in Japan are also included. Data is assembled from the Pacific Ocean itself, its marginal seas, in particular the Sea of Japan, and the surrounding coastal states. The palaeoenvironment of the region is reconstructed from the analysis of micropalaeontological, isotopic and stratigraphic data from deep-sea and terrestrial cores. -S.J.Stone

  3. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    OpenAIRE

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which...

  4. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the result of the regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile Basin. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are quite satisfactory given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment. The paper presents the validation results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river, the Sudd swamps, and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000. Observational datasets were used to evaluate the model results including radiation, precipitation, runoff and evaporation data. The evaporation data were derived from satellite images over a major part of the Upper Nile. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The sources of atmospheric moisture to the basin, and location of convergence/divergence fields could be accurately illustrated. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  5. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the result of the first regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are surprisingly accurate given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment.

    The paper presents model results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000, but focuses on the Sudd swamp. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  6. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  7. Distribution Channel Choices of Wineries in Emerging Cool Climate Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Lin; Gómez, Miguel I.; Chaddad, Fabio R.; Ross, R. Brent

    2014-01-01

    The number of wineries in nontraditional cool climate regions of the United States has increased dramatically in the last decade. We examine factors influencing distribution channel choices by these wineries, including winery characteristics, marketing strategies, and the extent of vertical and horizontal integration. Using a survey of winery operators in Michigan, Missouri, and New York, we developed fractional logit models to test hypotheses regarding their distribution channel choices. We ...

  8. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION

    OpenAIRE

    Kavita Tariyal; Dhanesh Mohan Bartwal

    2014-01-01

    The Himalayan region represents enormous variability of climates, hydrological and ecological systems, plus a diversity of cultures and communities. It is an essentiality to the ecological security of the Indian landmass, through providing forest cover, feeding recurrent rivers that are the source of potable water, irrigation, and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich foundation for high value agriculture, and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. Increasing concentr...

  9. Regional differences in climate change of the ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lastovicka, Jan

    2016-07-01

    The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide CO2, in the atmosphere affects not only the troposphere and surface climate, it affects the whole atmosphere-ionosphere system and it induces long-term trends and/or climate change in the ionosphere. The geographic distribution of CO2 in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere is relatively homogeneous and the long-term increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known to be stable. However, there are some other secondary drivers of long-term trends in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere, whose long-term behavior and/or effects either are not spatially homogeneous or are not stable in time (or both). Geomagnetic activity, solar activity, secular change of the Earth's magnetic field, long-term evolution of stratospheric ozone concentration and atmospheric wave activity are such trend drivers. They are responsible for regional differences in trends and also for their temporal non-stability. Regions of strong trends as a consequence of regional differences of trends represent a specific kind of risk from the point of view of space/ionospheric climate. These features of ionospheric trends will briefly be treated in this presentation.

  10. Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Böhm

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our

  11. The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Schimanke

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA and a Little Ice Age (LIA, is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.

  12. Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    J.S.PAL; F.GIORGI

    2007-01-01

    A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.

  13. Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO XueJie; ZHANG DongFeng; CHEN ZhongXin; J.S.PAL; F. GIORGI

    2007-01-01

    A regional climate model (RegCM3)nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987-2001),one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic activities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter. Land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change significantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, decreased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China).In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.

  14. Simulation of Effects of Land Use Change on Climate in China by a Regional Climate Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 罗勇; 林万涛; 赵宗慈; FilippoGIORGI

    2003-01-01

    Climate effects of land use change in China as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2)are investigated. The model is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Two multi-year simulations, one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover, are conducted. Statistically significant changes of precipitation, surface air temperature, and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are analyzed based on the difference between the two simulations. The simulated effects of land use change over China include a decrease of mean annual precipitation over Northwest China, a region with a prevalence of arid and semi-arid areas;an increase of mean annual surfaoe air temperature over some areas; and a decrease of temperature along coastal areas. Summer mean daily maximum temperature increases in many locations, while winter mean daily minimum temperature decreases in East China and increases in Northwest China. The upper soil moisture decreases significantly across China. The results indicate that the same land use change may cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics.

  15. CORDEX.be: COmbining Regional climate Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Termonia, Piet; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; De Ridder, Koen; Fettweis, Xavier; Gobin, Anne; Luyten, Patrick; Marbaix, Philippe; Pottiaux, Eric; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Van Lipzig, Nicole; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Willems, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of the ongoing project CORDEX.be, "COmbining Regional Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium: CORDEX and Beyond" is to gather existing and ongoing Belgian research activities in the domain of climate modelling to create a coherent scientific basis for future climate services in Belgium. The project regroups eight Belgian Institutes under a single research program of the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO). The project involves three regional climate models: the ALARO model, the COSMO-CLM model and the MAR model running according to the guidelines of the CORDEX project and at convection permitting resolution on small domains over Belgium. The project creates a framework to address four objectives/challenges. First, this projects aims to contribute to the EURO-CORDEX project. Secondly, RCP simulations are executed at convection-permitting resolutions (3 to 5 km) on small domains. Thirdly, the output of the atmospheric models is used to drive land surface models (the SURFEX model and the Urbclim model) with urban modules, a crop model (REGCROP), a tides and storm model (COHERENS) and the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model that simulates the fluxes emitted by vegetation. Finally, one work package will translate the uncertainty present in the CORDEX database to the high-resolution output of the CORDEX.be project. The organization of the project will be presented and first results will be shown, demonstrating that convection-permitting models can add extra skill to the mesoscale version of the regional climate models, in particular regarding the extreme value statistics and the diurnal cycle.

  16. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  17. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  18. SIMULATION OF PRESENT CLIMATE OVER EAST ASIA BY A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Dong-feng; GAO Xue-jie; OUYANG Li-cheng; DONG Wen-jie

    2008-01-01

    A 15-year simulation of climate over East Asia is conducted with the latest version of a regional climate model RegCM3 nested in one-way mode to the ERA40 Re-analysis data. The performance of themodel in simulating present climate over East Asia and China is investigated. Results show that RegCM3 can reproduce well the atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The simulation of the main distribution patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over China and their seasonal cycle/evolution, are basically agree with that of the observation. Meanwhile a general cold bias is found in the simulation. AS for the precipitation, the model tends to overestimate the precipitation in northern China while underestimate it in southern China, particularly in winter. In general, the model has better performance in simulating temperature than precipitation.

  19. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  20. 'Initial' Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Xueli

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the effects of 'initial' soil moisture (SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations (denoted as CTL), a series of sensitivity experi-ments were conducted, including the DRY and WET experiments, in which the simulated 'initial' SM over the region 30-50°N, 75 -105°E was only 5% and 50%, and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL, respectively. The results show that SM change can modify the subsequent climate in not only the SM-change region proper but also the far downstream regions in Eastern and even Northeastern China. The SM-change effects are generally more prominent in the WET than in the DRY experiments. After the SM is initially increased, the SM in the SM-change region is always higher than that in the CTL, the latent (sensible) heat flux there increases (decreases), and the surface air temperature decreases. Spatially, the most prominent changes in the WET experiments are surface air temperature decrease, geopotential height decrease and corresponding abnormal changes of cyclonic wind vectors at the mid-upper troposphere levels. Generally opposite effects exist in the DRY experiments but with much weaker intensity. In addi-tion, the differences between the results obtained from the two sets of sensitivity experiments and those of the CTL are not always consistent with the variation of the initial SM. Being different from the variation of temperature, the rainfall modifications caused by initial SM change are not so distinct and in fact they show some common features in the WET and DRY experiments. This might imply that SM is only one of the factors that impact the subsequent climate, and its effect is involved in complex processes within the atmosphere, which needs further investigation.

  1. Evaluating the effect of climate change on areal reduction factors using regional climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Johnson, Fiona; Evans, Jason

    2015-09-01

    Areal reduction factors (ARFs) are commonly used to transform point design rainfall to represent the average design rainfall for a catchment area. While there has been considerable attention paid in the research and engineering communities to the likely changes in rainfall intensity in future climates, the issue of changes to design areal rainfall has been largely ignored. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on ARFs. A new methodology for estimating changes in ARFs is presented. This method is used to assess changes in ARFs in the greater Sydney region using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM). ARFs under present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climate conditions were derived and compared for annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) from 50% to 5% for durations ranging from 1 h to 120 h. The analysis shows two main trends in the future changes in ARFs. For the shortest duration events (1-h) the ARFs are found to increase which implies that these events will tend to have a larger spatial structure in the future than the current climate. In contrast, storms with durations between 6 and 72 h are likely to have decreased ARFs in the future, suggesting a more restricted spatial coverage of storms under a warming climate. The extent of the decrease varies with event frequency and catchment size. The largest decreases are found for large catchments and rare events. Although the results here are based on a single RCM and need to be confirmed in future work with multiple models, the framework that is proposed will be useful for future studies considering changes in the areal extent of rainfall extremes.

  2. Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.

    2009-11-01

    Recent work has shown that current bio-energy policy directives may have harmful, indirect consequences, affecting both food security and the global climate system. An additional unintended but direct effect of large-scale biofuel production is the impact on local and regional climate resulting from changes in the energy and moisture balance of the surface upon conversion to biofuel crops. Using the latest version of the WRF modeling system we conducted twenty-four, midsummer, continental-wide, sensitivity experiments by imposing realistic biophysical parameter limits appropriate for bio-energy crops in the Corn Belt of the United States. In the absence of strain/crop-specific parameterizations, a primary goal of this work was to isolate the maximum regional climate impact, for a trio of individual July months, due to land-use change resulting from bio-energy crops and to identify the relative importance of each biophysical parameter in terms of its individual effect. Maximum, local changes in 2 m temperature of the order of 1°C occur for the full breadth of albedo (ALB), minimum canopy resistance (RCMIN), and rooting depth (ROOT) specifications, while the regionally (105°W-75°W and 35°N-50°N) and monthly averaged response of 2 m temperature was most pronounced for the ALB and RCMIN experiments, exceeding 0.2°C. The full range of albedo variability associated with biofuel crops may be sufficient to drive regional changes in summertime rainfall. Individual parameter effects on 2 m temperature are additive, highlight the cooling contribution of higher leaf area index (LAI) and ROOT for perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus) versus annual crops (e.g., maize), and underscore the necessity of improving location- and vegetation-specific representation of RCMIN and ALB.

  3. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  4. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  5. Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

    KAUST Repository

    Goddard, Scott D.

    2015-05-01

    Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.

  6. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

    2012-12-01

    There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high

  8. Regional climate model projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, J. P.; Bormann, K.; Katzfey, J.; Dean, S.; Arritt, R.

    2016-08-01

    This study presents results from regional climate model (RCM) projections for the south-west Pacific Ocean. The regional models used bias corrected sea surface temperatures. Six global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a global variable resolution model on a quasi-uniform 60 km grid. One of these simulations was used to drive three limited area regional models. Thus a four member ensemble was produced by different RCMs downscaling the same GCM (GFDL2.1), and a six member ensemble was produced by the same RCM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model—CCAM) downscaling six different GCMs. Comparison of the model results with precipitation observations shows the differences to be dominated by the choice of RCM, with all the CCAM simulations performing similarly and generally having lower error than the other RCMs. However, evaluating aspects of the model representation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) does not show CCAM to perform better in this regard. In terms of the future projections of the SPCZ for the December-January-February season, the ensemble showed no consensus change in most characteristics though a majority of the ensemble members project a decrease in the SPCZ strength. Thus, similar to GCM based studies, there is large uncertainty concerning future changes in the SPCZ and there is no evidence to suggest that future changes will be outside the natural variability. These RCM simulations do not support an increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events.

  9. Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, M.; Holman, K.; Zarrin, A.; Fluck, E.; Vavrus, S. J.; Bennington, V.

    2012-12-01

    The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region, while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October-March and decreases during May-August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea-level pressure in autumn-winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones.

  10. Attributing Sources of Variability in Regional Climate Model Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, C. G.; Sain, S. R.

    2008-12-01

    Variability in regional climate model (RCM) projections may be due to a number of factors, including the choice of RCM itself, the boundary conditions provided by a driving general circulation model (GCM), and the choice of emission scenario. We describe a new statistical methodology, Gaussian Process ANOVA, which allows us to decompose these sources of variability while also taking account of correlations in the output across space. Our hierarchical Bayesian framework easily allows joint inference about high probability envelopes for the functions, as well as decompositions of total variance that vary over the domain of the functions. These may be used to create maps illustrating the magnitude of each source of variability across the domain of the regional model. We use this method to analyze temperature and precipitation data from the Prudence Project, an RCM intercomparison project in which RCMs were crossed with GCM forcings and scenarios in a designed experiment. This work was funded by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).

  11. Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region Driven by Three Global Data Sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Shiyuan (Sharon); Li, Xiuping; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Gustafson, William I.

    2012-06-27

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990–1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperatures derived from the NCEP Global Reanalysis and output from the CCSM3 and GISS general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results are compared to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The three RCM simulations appeared to be more accurate in winter and least accurate in summer, and more accurate aloft than near the surface. The reanalysis-constrained simulation adequately captured the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the observed surface-air temperature and precipitation, but it produced consistently across all seasons a cold bias that is generally larger over the lakes than over land and a wet bias due to an overestimation of nonconvective precipitation. The simulated seasonal cycle of moisture–flux convergence over the region was in very good agreement with NARR. The two GCM-driven runs adequately simulated the spatial and seasonal variation of temperature, but overestimated cold-season precipitation and underestimated summer precipitation, reversing the observed annual precipitation cycle. The GISS-driven run failed to simulate the prevailing low-level flow and moisture convergence patterns. All three RCM simulations successfully captured the impact of the Great Lakes on the region's climate, especially on winter precipitation, a significant improvement over coarse-resolution GCM simulations over the region.

  12. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  13. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridgwell, Andy; Singarayer, Joy S; Hetherington, Alistair M; Valdes, Paul J

    2009-01-27

    The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming ("geoengineering"), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation. Specifically, we propose a "bio-geoengineering" approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1 degrees C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO(2). Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.

  14. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  15. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate predictions of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES, and investigates the predicted changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the Generalised Pareto Distribution. The models show that for much of Europe the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  16. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    The relationship between the characteristics of wine and its geographic origin is frequently used to explain the hierarchy of high-quality wines. Port wine is produced from grapes grown in selected areas of the Douro valley, in Portugal, the so-called Região Demarcada do Douro, the first wine-producing region of the world (dating from 1758). The Douro region presents distinctive climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Moreover Portugal possesses a large array of native varietals, producing an abundant diversity of different wines. The most protected wines, produced only with some authorised grape varietals in the demarcated regions, are labelled D.O.C. (Denominação de Origem Controlada, similar to the French Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC)) which secures a superior wine quality. Recent warming trends in Portugal are associated with the significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, and the increase in the frequency of hot days and tropical nights, especially in spring and summer, together with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves and frost days (Santo et al., 2014). Moreover a predominantly negative tendency in precipitation indices was also found (de Lima et al., 2014). These trends and associated changes in temperature and precipitation regimes may exert strong influences on agriculture systems. In this work we have performed an analysis of the distinct behaviour of several meteorological fields in vintage versus non-vintage years for Port Wine on one hand and Alentejo and Dão/Bairrada DOC regions on the other hand, during the period spanning from 1964-1995. The relative importance of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and frost days is assessed for each individual month of the vegetative cycle and their importance to the wine quality is evaluated. Furthermore, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure fields over the Euro Atlantic region are also compared for years

  17. Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

  18. EXTENDING LKN CLIMATE REGIONALIZATION WITH SPATIAL REGULARIZATION: AN APPLICATION TO EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Liss, Alexander; Yulia R. Gel; Kulinkina, Alexandra; Naumova, Elena N.

    2016-01-01

    Regional climate is a critical factor in public health research, adaptation studies, climate change burden analysis, and decision support frameworks. Existing climate regionalization schemes are not well suited for these tasks as they rarely take population density into account. In this work, we are extending our recently developed method for automated climate regionalization (LKN-method) to incorporate the spatial features of target population. The LKN method consists of the data limiting st...

  19. Multi-model drought estimation using regional climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M. F.; Sung, B.; Evans, J. P.; Sheffield, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought is a recurring climatic phenomenon in Australia and many other regions of the world. Apart from the considerable social and health repercussions that widespread drought has at a community level, there are major implications to the landscape, economy and water resources sectors. One of the key outputs in drought characterisation is determining the degree, extent and severity of the actual drought. However, there exist a range of techniques to quantify drought (each with its own definition) that adds to the level of uncertainty in accurate estimation. To examine the range and variability in multi-model drought prediction, a study of drought characteristics is undertaken, focusing on one of Australia's most significant agricultural regions: the Murray Darling Basin (MDB). Common drought indices including the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Standard Runoff Index (SRI), Soil Moisture Percentiles (SMP) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) were derived using output from a high resolution regional climate simulation of the MDB for the period from 1985 to 2008. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted by comparing these indices across regional scales. A severity-area-duration analysis and drought clustering approach were also used to characterize the extent and severity of these events across south-eastern Australia. Overall it was found that the four drought indices responded similarly to precipitation anomalies and successfully captured the major droughts over the nearly 25 years of simulation. The recent Australian drought from 2002-2008 was the most severe as shown by various analyses. Indeed, the Murray Darling Basin experienced contiguous moderate to extreme drought conditions for long periods, covering almost 100% of both the Darling and Murray Basins. Analysis of results also showed that the duration of droughts varied greatly between indices, as drought assessments using soil moisture parameters tended to recover in response to precipitation at

  20. Regional climate, local climate and ozone air pollution in Tours and Orleans cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The importance of the relations between climate and the air pollution justifies the interest related to the role of the urban heat island of heat with respect to the night persistence of ozone in urban environment. When the days are favourable with important ozone concentrations, the agglomerations of the area observe a dynamics day laborer of ozone different from that observed in rural environment. The study is undertaken on the towns of Turns and Orleans where the observations of Lig'Air revealed a night persistence of ozone whereas the concentrations drop more quickly in periphery. This phenomenon is remarkable during the little broken down anticyclonic days. The region region Centre is a ground of study privileged for ozone because of its situation in the south-west of the Island of France rich in precursors of ozone. When flow is of continental origin, the Centre area is found then under the influence of the Paris area. The investigation of a study of the air pollution must take into account the notes of the regional climate and local climate. Several preliminary studies must intervene to answer our principal problems. First of all a descriptive study of the regional climate is carried out with the participation of Meteo-France. The current absence of climatic atlas as well as the many disparities of the climate related to extended from the territory partly justify the interest of our study. The regional approach of the climate is also essential for the continuation of work on a finer scale on the agglomerations of Turns and Orleans in order to detect the urban heat island of heat there. Collaboration with Meteo-France and Lig'Air made it possible to establish a satisfying network of measurement making it possible to obtain notable thermal differences between the downtown area and the surrounding rural environment. The correlation between meteorology and the proven air pollution leads us to establish the climatology of ozone. Many are the studies having

  1. Statistical Downscaling Of Local Climate In The Alpine Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaspar, Severin; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on the alpine region was disproportional strong in the past decades compared to the surrounding areas, which becomes manifest in a higher increase in surface air temperature. Beside the thermal changes also implications for the hydrological cycle may be expected, acting as a very important factor not only for the ecosystem but also for mankind, in the form of water security or considering economical aspects like winter tourism etc. Therefore, in climate impact studies, it is necessary to focus on variables with high influence on the hydrological cycle, for example temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity and radiation. The aim of this study is to build statistical downscaling models which are able to reproduce temperature and precipitation at the mountainous alpine weather stations Zugspitze and Sonnblick and to further project these models into the future to identify possible changes in the behavior of these climate variables and with that in the hydrological cycle. Beside facing a in general very complex terrain in this high elevated regions, we have the advantage of a more direct atmospheric influence on the meteorology of the exposed weather stations from the large scale circulation. Two nonlinear statistical methods are developed to model the station-data series on a daily basis: On the one hand a conditional classification approach was used and on the other hand a model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was built. The latter is in focus of this presentation. One of the important steps of developing a new model approach is to find a reliable predictor setup with e.g. informative predictor variables or adequate location and size of the spatial domain. The question is: Can we include synoptic background knowledge to identify an optimal domain for an ANN approach? The yet developed ANN setups and configurations show promising results in downscaling both, temperature (up to 80 % of explained variance) and precipitation (up

  2. Late Cenozoic climate and the phylogenetic structure of regional conifer floras worldwide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.L. Eiserhardt; F. Borchsenius; B. Sandel; W.D. Kissling; J.-C. Svenning

    2015-01-01

    Aim Using conifers as a model system, we aim to test four hypotheses. H1: the processes that shape the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages depend on climate. H2: apparent effects of current climate can be equally well explained by past climate. H3: strong Quaternary climate oscill

  3. Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling: implications for water resources management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buytaert, W.; Vuille, M.; Dewulf, A.; Urrutia, R.; Karmalkar, A.; Célleri, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate

  4. MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 林一骅; 赵宗慈

    2003-01-01

    Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run(2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2 + aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature.The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.

  5. Feature tracking in high-resolution regional climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Neil R.

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, a suite of algorithms are presented which facilitate the identification and tracking of storm-indicative features, such as mean sea-level pressure minima, in high resolution regional climate data. The methods employ a hierarchical triangular mesh, which is tailored to the regional climate data by only subdividing triangles, from an initial icosahedron, within the domain of the data. The regional data is then regridded to this triangular mesh at each level of the grid, producing a compact representation of the data at numerous resolutions. Storm indicative features are detected by first subtracting the background field, represented by a low resolution version of the data, which occurs at a lower level in the mesh. Anomalies from this background field are detected, as feature objects, at a mesh level which corresponds to the spatial scale of the feature being detected and then refined to the highest mesh level. These feature objects are expanded to an outer contour and overlapping objects are merged. The centre points of these objects are tracked across timesteps by applying an optimisation scheme which uses five hierarchical rules. Objects are added to tracks based on the highest rule in the scheme they pass and, if two objects pass the same rule, the cost of adding the object to the track. An object exchange scheme ensures that adding an object to a track is locally optimal. An additional track optimisation phase is performed which exchanges segments between tracks and merges tracks to obtain a globally optimal track set. To validate the suite of algorithms they are applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and compared to other storm-indicative feature tracking algorithms.

  6. Outcomes of the UN Climate Summit in Paris: Instability of Regional Systems and New Risks of Regional Development

    OpenAIRE

    Ковалев, Юрий Юрьевич

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses the environmental, socio-economic and political aspects of global climate change. The causes and consequences of global warming are assessed from the perspective of the theory of territorial systems. The features of global climate discourse are analyzed. Possible scenarios and risks of territorial development in various regions of the world are described. Some strategies to counter climate change are considered.Key words: Global climate change summit in Paris, instabilit...

  7. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  8. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  9. North American regional climate reconstruction from underground temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Beltrami, Hugo; Mareschal, Jean-Claude

    2016-04-01

    Within the framework of the PAGES NorthAmerica2k project, 514 North American temperature-depth profiles were analyzed to infer recent climate changes. The ground surface temperature (GST) histories for the last 500 years were reconstructed from the subsurface temperature anomalies using a singular value decomposition (SVD) inversion that retains four principal components and takes into account time logging differences. Steady-state surface temperature and thermal gradient were estimated by linear regression for the lower 100 meters of the temperature profile, and climate induced subsurface temperature anomalies were estimated as departures from the steady-state conditions. Additionally, a Monte-Carlo method was used to find the range of solutions within a maximum subsurface anomaly error determined by the minimum distance between the model and the data. A regional analysis was performed for the last 5 centuries yielding mean temperature change every 50 years. The GST history results, presented as the mean and 95% confidence interval, show a warming by 1.0°C to 2.5°C during the post industrial era.

  10. Effects of climatic changes on anisakid nematodes in polar regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rokicki, Jerzy

    2009-11-01

    Anisakid nematodes are common in Antarctic, sub-Antarctic, and Arctic areas. Current distributional knowledge of anisakids in the polar regions is reviewed. Climatic variables influence the occurrence and abundance of anisakids, directly influencing their free-living larval stages and also indirectly influencing their predominantly invertebrate (but also vertebrate) hosts. As these parasites can also be pathogenic for humans, the paucity of information available is a source of additional hazard. As fish are a major human dietary component in Arctic and Antarctic areas, and are often eaten without heat processing, a high risk of infection by anisakid larvae might be expected. The present level of knowledge, particularly relating to anisakid larval stages present in fishes, is far from satisfactory. Preliminary molecular studies have revealed the presence of species complexes. Contemporary climate warming is modifying the marine environment and may result in an extension of time during which anisakid eggs can persist and hatch, and of the time period during which newly hatched larvae remain viable. As a result there may be an increase in the extent of anisakid distribution. Continued warming will modify the composition of the parasitic nematode fauna of marine animals, due to changes in feeding habits, as the warming of the sea and any localised reduction in salinity (from freshwater runoff) can be expected to bring about changes in the species composition of pelagic and benthic invertebrates.

  11. Summer crops evapotranspiration for two climatically constrating regions of Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the growth and development of grain crops there are a series of limiting factors which prevent obtaining yields to full potential. In particular, in summer crops grown in rain fed conditions, water deficiency stands out as one of the main factors affecting yield productivity. In this study crop evapotranspiration (E Tc) was estimated as a way to assess water needs in summer crops and real evapotranspiration (E Tr) of rain fed crops that occurs under field conditions. The study consisted in estimating E Tc and E Tr of soybean G M IV and V I, corn, sorghum and sunflower in two contrasting climatic regions of Uruguay for a period of 24 years (1984/2007) using the model WinISAREG. Water needs varied. The Nina and Nino years stood out with higher and lower values of Etc respectively. Such water needs are linked to cycle duration. Daily Etc was higher in the North and total Etc was higher in the South. The Etr obtained was substantially lower than Etc and with higher variability in most agr o-climatic situations studied. Sunflower and sorghum were the crops that presented the least differences between Etc and E Tr, and soybean and corn showed the greatest differences at both locations

  12. Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results

    OpenAIRE

    Salzmann, N.; Noetzli, J.; C. Hauck; Gruber, S.; M. Hoelzle; Haeberli, W.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. ...

  13. Climate change and the Portuguese precipitation: ENSEMBLES regional climate models results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Ferreira, João Jacinto; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2015-10-01

    In Portugal, the precipitation regimes present one of the highest volumes of extreme precipitation occurrence in Europe, and one of the largest mean precipitation spatial gradient (annual observed values above 2,500 mm in the NW and under 400 mm in the SE). Moreover, southern Europe is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. In the ENSEMBLES framework many climate change assessment studies were performed, but none focused on Portuguese precipitation. An extensive evaluation and ranking of the RCMs results addressing the representation of mean precipitation and frequency distributions was performed through the computation of statistical errors and frequency distribution scores. With these results, an ensemble was constructed; giving the same weight to mean precipitation and distribution model skills. This ensemble reveals a good ability to describe the precipitation regime in Portugal, and enables the evaluation of the eventual impact of climate change on Portuguese precipitation according to the A1B scenario. The mean seasonal precipitation is expected to decrease substantially in all seasons, excluding winter. This reduction is statistically significant; it spans from less than 20 % in the north to 40 % in the south in the intermediate seasons, and is above 50 % in the largest portion of mainland in summer. At a basin level the precipitation diminishes in all months for all the basins with exception of December. Total precipitation PDFs reveal an important decrease of the contribution from low to moderate/high precipitation bins, and a striking rise for days with extreme rainfall, up to 30 %.

  14. Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Oriana Ovalle-Rivera; Peter Läderach; Christian Bunn; Michael Obersteiner; Götz Schroth

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee ('Coffea arabica') within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s...

  15. Climate Change Scenarios of Precipitation Extremes in the Carpathian Region Based on an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ladislav Gaál

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study examines projected changes in precipitation extremes, aggregated on several time scales (1 hour, 1 day, and 5 days, in simulations of 12 regional climate models (RCMs with high spatial resolution (~25 km. The study area is the Carpathian Basin (Central and Southeastern Europe which has a complex topography and encompasses the whole territory of Slovakia and Hungary as well as major parts of Romania and western Ukraine. We focus on changes in mean seasonal maxima and high quantiles (50-year return values projected for the late 21st century (time slice 2070–2099 in comparison to the control period (time slice 1961–1990, for summer and winter. The 50-year return values are estimated by means of a regional frequency analysis based on the region-of-influence method, which reduces random variability and leads to more reliable estimates of high quantiles. In winter, all examined characteristics of precipitation (seasonal totals, mean seasonal maxima, and 50-year return values for both short-term and multi-day aggregations show similar patterns of projected increases for the late 21st century. In summer, by contrast, drying is projected for seasonal totals in all RCMs while increases clearly prevail for the 50-year return values. The projected increases are larger for short-term (hourly extremes that are more directly related to convective activity than multiday extremes. This suggests that the probability of occurrence of flash floods may increase more than that of large-scale floods in a warmer climate. The within-ensemble variability (and associated uncertainty is, nevertheless, much larger in summer than in winter.

  16. Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changhai; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Li, Yanping; Newman, Andrew; Thompson, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    The WRF model with a domain size of 1360x1016x51 points, using a 4 km spacing to encompass most of North America, is employed to investigate the water cycle and climate change impacts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Four suites of numerical experiments are being conducted, consisting of a 13-year retrospective simulation forced with ERA-I reanalysis, a 13-year climate sensitivity or Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation, and two 10-year CMIP5-based historical/future period simulations based on a revised bias-correction method. The major objectives are: 1) to evaluate high-resolution WRF's capability to capture orographic precipitation and snow mass balance over the western CONUS and convective precipitation over the eastern CONUS; 2) to assess future changes of seasonal snowfall and snowpack and associated hydrological cycles along with their regional variability across the different mountain barriers and elevation dependency, in response to the CMIP5 projected 2071-2100 climate warming; 3) to examine the precipitation changes under the projected global warming, with an emphasis on precipitation extremes and the warm-season precipitation corridor in association with MCS tracks in the central US; and 4) to provide a valuable community dataset for regional climate change and impact studies. Preliminary analysis of the retrospective simulation shows both seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature are well reproduced, with precipitation bias being within 10% of the observations and temperature bias being below 1 degree C in most seasons and locations. The observed annual cycle of snow water equivalent (SWE), such as peak time and disappearance time, is also realistically replicated, even though the peak value is somewhat underestimated. The PGW simulation shows a large cold-season warming in northeast US and eastern Canada, possibly associated with snow albedo feedback, and a strong summer warming in north central US in association with

  17. Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torben Koenigk

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

  18. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on Earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size" against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a tremendous self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests Earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with massive sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of Northern America and Eurasia to chilling

  19. Building America Best Practices Series: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilbride, Theresa L.

    2008-10-01

    This document describes the eight climate region designations used by the US Department of Energy Building America Program. In addition to describing the climate zones, the document includes a complete list of every county in the United States and their climate region designations. The county lists are grouped by state. The doucment is intended to assist builders to easily identify what climate region they are building in and therefore which climate-specific Building America best practices guide would be most appropriate for them.

  20. USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Midwest Regional Climate Hub covers the States of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin and represents one of the most extensive and intensive agricultural systems in the world. The Northern Forests Climate Sub Hub shares this footprint and represents people...

  1. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael;

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider...... to a range in hydrological effects of climate change, mainly originating from simulated precipitation amounts......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present...

  2. Simulation of the Arid Climate of the Southern Great Basin Using a Regional Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Bates, Gary T.; Nieman, Steven J.

    1992-11-01

    As part of the development effort of a regional climate model (RCM)for the southern Great Basin, this paper present savalidation analysis of the climatology generated by a high-resolution RCM driven by observations. The RCM is aversion of the National Center for atmospheric Research-Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, version 4 (MM4), modified for application to regional climate simulation. Two multiyear simulations, for the periods 1 January 1982 to 31 December 1983 and 1 January 1988 to 25 April 1989, were performed over the western United States with the RCM driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses of observations. The model resolution is 60 km. This validation analysis is the first phase of a project to produce simulations of future climate scenarios over a region surrounding Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the only location currently being considered as a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository site.Model-produced surface air temperatures and precipitation were compared with observations from five southern Nevada stations located in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain. The seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation were simulated well. Monthly and seasonal temperature biases were generally negative and largely explained by differences in elevation between the observing stations and the model topography. The model-simulated precipitation captured the extreme dryness of the Great Basin. Average yearly precipitation was generally within 30% of observed and the range of monthly precipitation amounts was the same as in the observations. Precipitation biases were mostly negative in the summer and positive in the winter. The number of simulated daily precipitation events for various precipitation intervals was within factors of 1.5-3.5 of observed. Overall, the model tended to overestimate the number of light precipitation events and underestimate the number of heavy precipitation events. At Yucca Mountain, simulated

  3. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  4. Simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. with four nested regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, P B; Arritt, R W; Coquard, J; Gutowski, W; Han, J; Iorio, J; Kim, J; Leung, L R; Roads, J; Zeledon, E

    2004-06-15

    We analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean-atmosphere climate models. Our primary goal is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, we compare RCM results to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, we compare RCM results to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western U.S., we find that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region, in both present and future climates. In present-climate simulations, the RCMs have biases in spatially-averaged simulated precipitation and near-surface temperature that seem to be very close to those of the driving GCMs. In future-climate simulations, the spatially-averaged RCM-projected responses in precipitation and near-surface temperature are also very close to those of the respective driving GCMs. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs are in many regions not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases.

  5. Climate change vulnerability in Ethiopia : disaggregation of Tigray Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gebrehiwot, T.G.; Veen, van der A.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and variability severely affect rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, yet they are causes of stress vulnerable rural households have to cope with. This paper investigated farming communities' vulnerability to climate change and climate variability across 34 agricultural-bas

  6. Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a m

  7. Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number

  8. The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart

    2012-01-01

    The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected

  9. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

    2008-12-01

    The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector

  10. Extending Lkn Climate Regionalization with Spatial Regularization: AN Application to Epidemiological Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liss, Alexander; Gel, Yulia R.; Kulinkina, Alexandra; Naumova, Elena N.

    2016-06-01

    Regional climate is a critical factor in public health research, adaptation studies, climate change burden analysis, and decision support frameworks. Existing climate regionalization schemes are not well suited for these tasks as they rarely take population density into account. In this work, we are extending our recently developed method for automated climate regionalization (LKN-method) to incorporate the spatial features of target population. The LKN method consists of the data limiting step (L-step) to reduce dimensionality by applying principal component analysis, a classification step (K-step) to produce hierarchical candidate regions using k-means unsupervised classification algorithm, and a nomination step (N-step) to determine the number of candidate climate regions using cluster validity indexes. LKN method uses a comprehensive set of multiple satellite data streams, arranged as time series, and allows us to define homogeneous climate regions. The proposed approach extends the LKN method to include regularization terms reflecting the spatial distribution of target population. Such tailoring allows us to determine the optimal number and spatial distribution of climate regions and thus, to ensure more uniform population coverage across selected climate categories. We demonstrate how the extended LKN method produces climate regionalization can be better tailored to epidemiological research in the context of decision support framework.

  11. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenke, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; Gröbner, J.; Maag, L.; Brönnimann, S.; Peter, T.

    2013-10-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a

  12. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size" against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North

  13. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 7.1: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baechler, Michael C.; Williamson, Jennifer L.; Gilbride, Theresa L.; Cole, Pamala C.; Hefty, Marye G.; Love, Pat M.

    2010-08-30

    This report for DOE's Building America program helps builders identify which Building America climate region they are building in. The guide includes maps comparing the Building America regions with climate designations used in the International Energy Conservation Code for Residential Buildings and lists all U.S. counties by climate zone. A very brief history of the development of the Building America climate map and descriptions of each climate zone are provided. This report is available on the Building America website www.buildingamerica.gov.

  14. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

  15. Artificial snowmaking possibilities and climate change based on regional climate modeling in the Southern Black Forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, Philipp; Matzarakis, Andreas [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Steiger, Robert [alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Technologies, Innsbruck (Austria)

    2012-04-15

    Winter sport, especially ski tourism - is one of those sectors of tourism that will be affected by climate change. Ski resorts across the Alps and in the adjacent low mountain ranges react to warm winter seasons by investing in artificial snowmaking. But snowmaking in warm winter seasons is fraught with risk, because sufficiently low air temperature will become less frequent in the future. The present study deals with the ski resort Feldberg, which has 14 ski lifts and 16 ski slopes which is the biggest ski resort in the German Federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg. The impact of climate change in this region is extraordinary important because winter tourism is the main source of revenue for the whole area around the ski resort. The study area is in altitudinal range of 850 to 1450 meters above sea level. At the moment, it is possible to supply one third of the whole area with artificial snow, but there is plan for artificial snowmaking of the whole Feldberg area by the year 2020. Based on this, more detailed investigations of season length and the needed volume of produced snow are necessary. A ski season simulation model (SkiSim 2.0) was applied in order to assess potential impacts of climate change on the Feldberg ski area for the A1B and B1 emission scenarios based on the ECHAM5 GCM downscaled by the REMO RCM. SkiSim 2.0 calculates daily snow depth (natural and technically produced snow) and the required amount of artificial snow for 100 m altitudinal bands. Analysing the development of the number of potential skiing days, it can be assessed whether ski operation is cost covering or not. Model results of the study show a more pronounced and rapid shortening of the ski season in the lower ranges until the year 2100 in each climate scenario. In both the A1B and B1 scenario runs of REMO, a cost-covering ski season of 100 days cannot be guaranteed in every altitudinal range even if snowmaking is considered. In this context, the obtained high-resolution snow data can

  16. Burgundy regional climate change and its potential impact on grapevines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Yiwen [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); G.C. Rieber Climate Institute at the Nansen Environment and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Castel, Thierry [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); AgroSup, Department of Agriculture and Environment, Dijon (France); Richard, Yves; Cuccia, Cedric [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); Bois, Benjamin [University of Burgundy, Center for Climate Research, UMR 5210 CNRS, Dijon (France); IUVV, University of Burgundy, Dijon (France)

    2012-10-15

    ARPEGE general circulation model simulations were dynamically downscaled by The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for the study of climate change and its impact on grapevine growth in Burgundy region in France by the mid twenty-first century. Two time periods were selected: 1970-1979 and 2031-2040. The WRF model driven by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data was validated against in situ surface temperature observations. The daily maximum and minimum surface temperature (T{sub max} and T{sub min}) were simulated by the WRF model at 8 x 8 km horizontal resolution. The averaged daily T{sub max} for each month during 1970-1979 have good agreement with observations, the averaged daily T{sub min} have a warm bias about 1-2 K. The daily T{sub max} and T{sub min} for each month (domain averaged) during 2031-2040 show a general increase. The largest increment ({proportional_to}3 K) was found in summer. The smallest increments (<1 K) were found in spring and fall. The spatial distribution of temperature increment shows a strong meridional gradient, high in south in summer, reversing in winter. The resulting potential warming rate in summer is equivalent to 4.7 K/century under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. The dynamically downscaled T{sub max} and T{sub min} were used to simulate the grape (Pinot noir grape variety) flowering and veraison dates. For 2031-2040, the projected dates are 8 and 12 days earlier than those during 1970-1979, respectively. The simulated hot days increase more than 50% in the two principal grapevine regions. They show strong impact on Pinot noir development. (orig.)

  17. Climatic Data Integration and Analysis - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Sheneman, L.; Gollberg, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA) is a five-year USDA/NIFA-funded coordinated agriculture project to examine the sustainability of cereal crop production systems in the Pacific Northwest, in relationship to ongoing climate change. As part of this effort, an extensive data management system has been developed to enable researchers, students, and the public, to upload, manage, and analyze various data. The REACCH PNA data management team has developed three core systems to encompass cyberinfrastructure and data management needs: 1) the reacchpna.org portal (https://www.reacchpna.org) is the entry point for all public and secure information, with secure access by REACCH PNA members for data analysis, uploading, and informational review; 2) the REACCH PNA Data Repository is a replicated, redundant database server environment that allows for file and database storage and access to all core data; and 3) the REACCH PNA Libraries which are functional groupings of data for REACCH PNA members and the public, based on their access level. These libraries are accessible thru our https://www.reacchpna.org portal. The developed system is structured in a virtual server environment (data, applications, web) that includes a geospatial database/geospatial web server for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), use of ESRI's Geoportal Server for data discovery and metadata management (under the ISO 19115-2 standard), Thematic Realtime Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) for data cataloging, and Interactive Python notebook server (IPython) technology for data analysis. REACCH systems are housed and maintained by the Northwest Knowledge Network project (www.northwestknowledge.net), which provides data management services to support research. Initial project data harvesting and meta-tagging efforts have resulted in the interrogation and loading of over 10 terabytes of climate model output, regional entomological data

  18. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  19. Nordic co-operation regarding regionalized climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article presents some of the experiments and preliminary results of the Nordic Ensemble of Climate Scenarios which is a joint effort between RegClim, Sweclim (Sweden) and DCC (the Danish Climate Centre) regarding the dynamic reduction of global climate scenarios in Scandinavia. The global warming, radiation enhancements and greenhouse gas concentrations have been studied for periods from pre industrial time till the year 2080. Plans for future studies are mentioned

  20. The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart

    2012-01-01

    The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected

  1. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Arritt, R.; Biner, S.; Bukovsky, Melissa; McGinnis, Seth; Sain, Steve; Caya, Daniel; Correia Jr., James; Flory, Dave; Gutowski, William; Takle, Gene; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; McDaniel, Larry; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun; Roads, J.; Sloan, Lisa; Snyder, Mark A.

    2012-09-20

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is an international effort designed to systematically investigate the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and produce high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, with a common domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The program also includes an evaluation component (Phase I) wherein the participating RCMs are nested within 25 years of NCEP/DOE global reanalysis II. The grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km.

  2. Reconstructing regional climate networks from irregularly sampled satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Donner, Reik V.; Sykioti, Olga; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    With the increasing availability of remote sensing data Earth System Analysis has taken a great step forward. Satellite data with high resolution in time and space allow for an in-depth analysis of small-scale processes in the climate as well as ecosystems. This data type, however, also harbors crucial conceptual complications. First, depending on whether the satellite is orbiting on an ascending or descending path systematic biases are induced into the dataset and both measurements can not be evaluated simultaneously without an appropriate preprocessing. Second, remote sensing data are usually not produced with equidistant temporal sampling, but might contain huge gaps, due to cloud cover or maintenance work and irregular time steps, due to the orbiting time of the satellite. In this work, we utilize sea surface temperature (SST) data obtained from the SMOS satellite as part of ESA's Earth Explorer Mission to study small-scale regional interactions between different parts of the Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea. In a first step, we create homogeneous time series for each grid point by combining data from ascending and descending satellite paths by utilizing principal component and singular spectrum analysis. To address the issue of irregular temporal sampling we utilize a kernel weighted version of the linear cross-correlation function to compute lagged correlations between all pairs of grid points in the dataset. By setting a threshold to the thus obtained correlation matrix we obtain a binary matrix which can be interpreted as the adjacency matrix of a complex network. We then use tools from complex network theory to study regional interdependencies in the study area for different time lags of up to forty days. We find that the obtained networks represent well the observed average wind directions and speeds and display interaction structures between small regions in the Aegean Sea, which are in good agreement with earlier observations. The methods presented

  3. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region

    OpenAIRE

    RODERFELD Hedwig; Blyth, Eleanor; DANKERS RUTGER; Huse, Geir; Slagstad, Dag; Ellingsen, Ingrid; Wolf, Annett; Lange, Manfred A.

    2008-01-01

    The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models a...

  4. New climate-proof cropping systems in dry areas of the Mediterranean region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Sven-Erik

    2014-01-01

    A climate-proof cropping system is a system which is able to mitigate the effects of climate change, which often are unpredictable and extreme. The special issue is related to the subject of improving cropping systems in the Mediterranean region, which is one of the regions in the world facing mo...... of the world, where Mediterranean climate is found, such as Western Australia and Western Chile, and in many dry areas of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East....

  5. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [The Pennsylvania State University; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado at Boulder and NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory; Li, Wei [The Pennsylvania State University

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  6. Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling: implications for water resources management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Buytaert

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate models (RCMs are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty.

  7. Analysis of possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes of different regions in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bormann

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the impact of climate change scenarios on the hydrological regimes of five different regions in Germany is investigated. These regions (Northwest Germany, Northeast Germany and East German basins, upper and lower Rhine, pre-Alps differ with respect to present climate and projected climate change. The physically based SVAT-model SIMULAT is applied to theoretical soil columns based on combinations of land use, soil texture and groundwater depth to quantify climate change effects on the hydrological regime. Observed climate, measured at climate stations of the German Weather Service (1991–2007, is used for comparison with climate projections (2071–2100 generated by the regional scale climate model WETTREG.

    While all climate scenarios implicate an increase in precipitation in winter, a decrease in precipitation in summer and an increase in temperature, the simulated impacts on the hydrological regime are regionally different. In the Rhine region and in Northwest Germany, an increase in the annual runoff and groundwater recharge is simulated despite the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In the Eastern part of Germany and the pre-Alps, annual runoff and groundwater recharge will decrease. Due to dry conditions in summer, the soil moisture deficit will increase (in Northeast Germany and the East German basins in particular or remain constant (Rhine region. In all regions the seasonal variability in runoff and soil moisture status will increase. Despite regional warming actual evapotranspiration will decrease in most regions except in areas with shallow groundwater tables and the lower Rhine. Although the study is limited by the fact that only one climate model was used to drive one hydrologic model, the study shows that the hydrological regime will be affected by climate change. The direction of the expected changes seems to be obvious as well as the necessity of the adaptation of future water

  8. Simulation of South Asian aerosols for regional climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Solmon, Fabien; Giorgi, Filippo; Mariotti, Laura; Babu, S. Suresh; Moorthy, K. Krishna

    2012-02-01

    Extensive intercomparison of columnar and near-surface aerosols, simulated over the South Asian domain using the aerosol module included in the regional climate model (RegCM4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) have been carried out using ground-based network of Sun/sky Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) radiometers, satellite sensors such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and ground-based black carbon (BC) measurements made at Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) network stations. In general, RegCM4 simulations reproduced the spatial and seasonal characteristics of aerosol optical depth over South Asia reasonably well, particularly over west Asia, where mineral dust is a major contributor to the total aerosol loading. In contrast, RegCM4 simulations drastically underestimated the BC mass concentrations over most of the stations, by a factor of 2 to 5, with a large spatial variability. Seasonally, the discrepancy between the measured and simulated BC tended to be higher during winter and periods when the atmospheric boundary layer is convectively stable (such as nighttime and early mornings), while during summer season and during periods when the boundary layer is convectively unstable (daytime) the discrepancies were much lower, with the noontime values agreeing very closely with the observations. A detailed analysis revealed that the model does not reproduce the nocturnal high in BC, observed at most of the Indian sites especially during winter, because of the excessive vertical transport of aerosols under stable boundary layer conditions. As far as the vertical distribution was concerned, the simulated vertical profiles of BC agreed well with airborne measurements during daytime. This comprehensive validation exercise reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the model in simulating the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the aerosol fields over

  9. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  10. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  11. Estimation of regional mass anomalies from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, R.; Singh, S. K.; Rajawat, A. S.; Ajai

    2014-11-01

    Time-variable gravity changes are caused by a combination of postglacial rebound, redistribution of water and snow/ice on land and as well as in the ocean. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002, provides monthly average of the spherical harmonic co-efficient. These spherical harmonic co-efficient describe earth's gravity field with a resolution of few hundred kilometers. Time-variability of gravity field represents the change in mass over regional level with accuracies in cm in terms of Water Equivalent Height (WEH). The WEH reflects the changes in the integrated vertically store water including snow cover, surface water, ground water and soil moisture at regional scale. GRACE data are also sensitive towards interior strain variation, surface uplift and surface subsidence cover over a large area. GRACE data was extracted over the three major Indian River basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, in the Himalayas which are perennial source of fresh water throughout the year in Northern Indian Plain. Time series analysis of the GRACE data was carried out from 2003-2012 over the study area. Trends and amplitudes of the regional mass anomalies in the region were estimated using level 3 GRACE data product with a spatial resolution at 10 by 10 grid provided by Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas at Austin. Indus basin has shown a subtle decreasing trend from 2003-2012 however it was observed to be statistically insignificant at 95 % confidence level. Ganga and Brahmaputra basins have shown a clear decreasing trend in WEH which was also observed to be statistically significant. The trend analysis over Ganga and Brahamputra basins have shown an average annual change of -1.28 cm and -1.06 cm in terms of WEH whereas Indus basin has shown a slight annual change of -0.07 cm. This analysis will be helpful to understand the loss of mass in terms of WEH over Indian Himalayas and will be crucial for hydrological and

  12. Placing Central European climate archives into a regional tephrochronological framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, C. S.; Blockley, S. P. E.; Lotter, A. F.; Filippi, M. L.; Pollard, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    A number of Lateglacial and Early Holocene lacustrine records from Central and Southern Europe have been shown to contain both visible and micro-tephra deposits, which can be correlated to volcanic eruptions from multiple volcanic sources. Detailed environmental proxy records, which outline local and regional responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Last Glacial to Interglacial transition (LGIT), are thus constrained within a regional tephrochronological framework. Amongst other volcanic markers, the Laacher See Tephra, erupted from the Eifel region of Germany at 12,880 ±120 varve yrs BP (Brauer et al., 1999), and the Vedde Ash, erupted from Iceland between 12,225 and 11,832 cal. yrs BP (Blockley et al., 2007), are found within some of the same lake cores (e.g., Blockley et al., 2008). These key horizons, which bracket the onset of the Younger Dryas Interstadial, provide precise and absolutely dated tie points around which a detailed picture of the timing of local and regional environmental transitions can be constructed. The presence of the Vedde Ash in the Swiss lake sites allows a direct linkage to the Greenland Ice Core chronology (Mortensen et al., 2005) and highlights the potential for key tephra deposits to be found and correlated across wide geographical areas. This paper summarises the results of tephrochronological investigations into a suite of Central European records, which includes: Soppensee and Rotsee, in Central Switzerland; Rotmeer, in Southern Germany; and Lavarone, in Northern Italy. Chemical analysis of each tephra deposit has been carried out and the sources of the eruption events have been identified. Where appropriate, tephra ages have been transferred from high-precision annually-resolved chronologies and integrated with Bayesian-based radiocarbon age models for the sites. The environmental archives of the LGIT at each site are then compared on a common timescale, and further comparisons are made with other published European tephra

  13. Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Flow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A Regional Climate Model Perspective, The

    OpenAIRE

    Manoj Jha; Zaitao Pan; Takle, Eugene S.; Roy Gu

    2003-01-01

    We evaluate the impact of climate change on stream flow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) by using a regional climate model (RCM) coupled with a hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was calibrated and validated against measured stream flow data using observed weather data and inputs from the Environmental Protection Agency's BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources) geographical information/database system. The c...

  14. Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Forsythe

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A three-step climate classification was applied to a spatial domain covering the Himalayan arc and adjacent plains regions using input data from four global meteorological reanalyses. Input variables were selected based on an understanding of the climatic drivers of regional water resource variability and crop yields. Principal components analysis (PCA of those variables and k means clustering on the PCA outputs revealed a reanalysis ensemble consensus for eight sub-regional climate zones. Spatial statistics of input variables for each zone revealed consistent, distinct climatologies. This climate classification approach has potential both for enhancing assessment of climatic influences on water resources and food security as well as for characterising the skill and bias of gridded datasets, both meteorological reanalyses and climate models, for reproducing sub-regional climatologies. Through their spatial descriptors (area, geographic centroid, elevation mean range, climate classifications also provide metrics, beyond simple changes in individual variables, with which to assess the magnitude of projected climate change. Such sophisticated metrics are of particular interest for regions, including mountainous areas, where natural and anthropogenic systems are expected to be sensitive to incremental climate shifts.

  15. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F.

    1999-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

  16. Effects of climate change on regional energy systems focussing on space heating and cooling: A case study of Austria

    OpenAIRE

    Hausl Stephan; Themessl Matthias; Gadocha Sabine; Schardinger Ingrid; Biberacher Markus; Castellazzi Bernhard; Gobiet Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Climate change affects regions differently and therefore also climate change effects on energy systems need to be analyzed region specific. The objective of the study presented is to show and analyze these effects on regional energy systems following a high spatial resolution approach. Three regional climate scenarios are downscaled to a 1 km resolution and error corrected for three different testing regions in Austria. These climate data are used to analyz...

  17. Enhancements to modeling regional climate response and global variability; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efforts during this grant period focused on three main considerations: (a) developing and testing various climate scenarios with SEAM, a newly created model (b) model reconstruction efforts to speed up computations and (c) optimum realization statistics

  18. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee. PMID:25875230

  19. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oriana Ovalle-Rivera

    Full Text Available Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

  20. Climate change impact on the river runoff: regional study for the Central Asian Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    increase is expected in evaporation from water surfaces of 15-20%. The most severe and climate conditions in the watershed area were predicted under the CCCM model. According to this model, if CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled, then the runoffs of the Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers are expected to be reduced by 28 and 40%, respectively. According to GFDL and GISS scenarios, presented.(Author)e experiencethe catchment area would increase by 3-4oC and average annual precipitation volume by 10-15%. Under these scenarios, one could expect that no significant reduction in the Amudarya and Syrdarya runoff would occur. An air temperature rise of 1-2oC will intensify the process of ice degradation. In 1957-180 glaciers in the Aral Sea river basins lost 115.5 km3 Of ice (approximately 104 km3 of water), which constituted almost 20 per cent of the 1957 ice reserve. By 2000 another 14 per cent of the 1957 reserve were lost. By 2020 glaciers will lose at least another 10 per cent of their initial volume. Calculations of regional climatic scenarios by the year 2030 also indicate persistence of present runoff volumes accompanied by an increase in fluctuations from year. Longer-term assessments are more pessimistic, since, along with increasing evaporation, water resource inputs (snow and glaciers in the mountains) are continuously shrinking. (Author)

  1. Impact of climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in the Tiber River Basin (Central Italy) Using Regional Climate model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muluneh, F. B.; Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.; Fiori, A.

    2011-12-01

    Quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by many internal and external drivers. Changes in climate variables can affect the quantity and quality of various components of hydrological cycle. Among others, the local effects of climate change on groundwater resources were not fully studied in different part of the world as compared to the surface water. Moreover, understanding the potential impact of climate change on groundwater is more complex than surface water. The main objective of this study is to analyze the potential impact of climate change on Groundwater recharge in the Tiber River Basin using outputs from Regional Climate model. In this study, a physically-based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate recharge characteristics and its response to climate change in Tiber River Basin (central Italy). The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963-1970 and 1971-1978 respectively. During calibration, the model was highly sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters. Dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature datasets from ten Regional Climate Models (RCM) archived in 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)' were used to force the model to assess the climate change impact on the study area. A quantile-mapping statistical correction procedure was applied to the RCM dataset to correct the inherent systematic biases. The climate change analysis indicated that by the end of 2080s the rainfall was found to decrease nearly up to 40% in dry period and there was an increase in temperature that could reach as high as 3 to 5 oC. By the end of 2080s the ground water recharge shows a decreasing trend as a response to changes in rainfall. However as the timing of both precipitation and

  2. Simulation of Effects of Grassland Degradation on Regional Climate over Sanjiangyuan Region in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIAN Lishu; SHU Jiong

    2009-01-01

    Regional climate model (RegCM3) was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes (e.g., grassland degradation in this study) on local and regional climate over the Sanjiangyuan region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two multiyear (1991-1999) numerical simulation experiments were conducted: one was a control experiment with current land use and the other was a desertification experiment with potential grassland degradation. Preliminary analysis indicated that RegCM3 is appropriate for simulating land-climate interactions, as the patterns of the simulated surface air temperature, the summer precipitation, and the geopotential height fields are consistent with the observed values. The desertification over the Sanjiangyuan region will cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics. The area with obvious change in surface air temperature inducing by grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A winter surface air temperature drop and the other seasons' surface air temperature increase will be observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on two numerical simulation experiments. Surface air temperature changes in spring are the largest (0.46℃), and in winter are the smallest (smaller than 0.03℃), indicating an increasing mean annual surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Surface air temperature changes will be smaller and more complex over the surrounding region, with minor winter changes for the regions just outside the plateau and notable summer changes over the north of the Yangtze River. The reinforced summer heat source in the plateau will lead to an intensification of heat low, causing the West Pacific subtropical high to retreat eastward. This will be followed by a decrease of precipitation in summer. The plateau's climate tends to become warm and dry due to the grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan

  3. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  4. The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Mitchell T.; Karoly, David J.; Rosier, Suzanne M.; Dean, Sam M.; King, Andrew D.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Jones, Richard G.; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.

    2016-09-01

    A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extremes over Australia and New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia-New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with a nested regional model over the Australasian region. By harnessing the aggregated computing power of home computers, weather@home is able to generate an unprecedented number of simulations of possible weather under various climate scenarios. This combination of large ensemble sizes with high spatial resolution allows extreme events to be examined with well-constrained estimates of sampling uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the weather@home Australia-New Zealand project, including initial evaluation of the regional model performance. The model is seen to be capable of resolving many climate features that are important for the Australian and New Zealand regions, including the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on driving natural climate variability. To date, 75 model simulations of the historical climate have been successfully integrated over the period 1985-2014 in a time-slice manner. In addition, multi-thousand member ensembles have also been generated for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 under climate scenarios with and without the effect of human influences. All data generated by the project are freely available to the broader research community.

  5. Climate change: is Southeast Asia up to the challenge?: the roles of climate variability and climate change on smoke haze occurrences in Southeast Asia region

    OpenAIRE

    Tangang, Fredolin

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the smoke-haze episodes in the Southeast Asia region and how their occurrence can be related to climate variability and future climate change in the region. The haze episode over this region has been an almost yearly occurrence but becomes severe during the prolonged dry period associated with the El Niño phenomenon. The longest and most severe case was the episode of September to November 1997 that occurred in conjunction with the extreme 1997/98 El ...

  6. Changes in Soil Temperature Regimes under Regional Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, S. W.

    2013-12-01

    Soil temperatures can provide a smoothed record of regional changes in atmospheric conditions due to soil thermal properties that reduce the annual air and surface temperature amplitude. In areas with seasonal snow cover, however, its insulating effect isolates the soil thermal regime from winter air temperatures. Under changing regional climate patterns, snow cover extent, depth and duration are decreasing. The net effect is thus an expected winter cooling of soil temperature. However, the extent to which this might be mitigated by warmer summer conditions, and changing soil moisture remains to be seen. To examine the relative strength of a cold-season cooling signal versus enhanced summer warming, a network of soil temperature loggers has recorded hourly soil temperatures over the period 2005-2013 within a single watershed experiencing 'lake effect snow'. Elevations range from 168 m to 612 m, on Silurian and Ordovician shale, limestone, and sandstone that have been heavily glaciated. Most of the sites are located on NY Department of Environmental Conservation land in mixed, hardwood and spruce forests. At six sites in varied topographic and land-use setting, two ONSET HOBO Outdoor 4 channel soil temperature loggers are deployed in order to reduce concerns of data reliability and systematic logger drift. Five sites also record air temperature using HOBO Pro Series Temperature loggers at three sites and HOBO Weather Stations at two. Soil temperature data are recorded at hourly intervals at depths of 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-cm. Several other sites have been operationalized over the 8 year period, but have been tampered with, damaged, stolen, or have failed. These partial records are included to provide greater geographic representation of changing conditions where possible. Data indicate decreasing winter soil temperatures in specific land-use and topographic settings. Only one site, located in a dense spruce plantation, experiences soil freezing within the top 5 cm

  7. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  8. Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

    2016-01-15

    The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges.

  9. Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

  10. Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

    OpenAIRE

    Dongsheng Zhao; Shaohong Wu; Yunhe Yin

    2013-01-01

    The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future clim...

  11. The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

    2013-12-01

    Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the

  12. Assessing climate impacts of planning policies-An estimation for the urban region of Leipzig (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this method is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.

  13. Very high resolution regional climate model simulations over Greenland: Identifying added value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucas-Picher, P.; Wulff-Nielsen, M.; Christensen, J.H.;

    2012-01-01

    This study presents two simulations of the climate over Greenland with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM5 at 0.05° and 0.25° resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1989–2009. These simulations are validated against observations from meteorol......This study presents two simulations of the climate over Greenland with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM5 at 0.05° and 0.25° resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1989–2009. These simulations are validated against observations from...... models. However, the bias between the simulations and the few available observations does not reduce with higher resolution. This is partly explained by the lack of observations in regions where the higher resolution is expected to improve the simulated climate. The RCM simulations show...

  14. USDA Southwest Regional Hub for Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Havstad, K.

    2014-12-01

    The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up of six states: New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, California and Hawaii (plus the Trust Territories of the Pacific Islands). The SW Climate Hub has a subsidiary hub located in Davis, California. The Southwest region has high climatic diversity, with the lowest and highest average annual rainfall in the U.S.(6.0 cm in Death Valley, CA and 1168 cm at Mt. Waialeale, HI). There are major deserts in five of the six states, yet most of the states, with exception of Hawaii, depend upon the melting of mountain snowpacks for their surface water supply. Additionally, many of the agricultural areas of the SW Regional Hub depend upon irrigation water to maintain productivity. Scientific climate information developed by the Hub will be used for climate-smart decision making. To do this, the SW Regional Hub will rely upon existing infrastructure of the Cooperative Extension Service at Land-Grant State Universities. Extension service and USDA-NRCS personnel have existing networks to communicate with stakeholders (farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners) through meetings and workshops which have already started in the six states. Outreach through the development of a weather and climate impact modules designed for seventh grade students and their teachers will foster education of future generations of rural land managers. We will be synthesizing and evaluating existing reports, literature and information on regional climate projections, water resources, and agricultural adaptation strategies related to climate in the Southwest. The results will be organized in a spatial format and provided through the SW Hub website (http://swclimatehub.info) and peer-reviewed articles.

  15. Regional climate signal modified by local factors - multi core study records (Lake Czechowskie region, N Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawiska, Izabela; Rzodkiewicz, Monika; Noryśkiewicz, Agnieszka; Kramkowski, Mateusz; Obremska, Milena; Ott, Florian; Plessen, Birgit; Tjallingii, Rik; Słowiński, Michał; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Brauer, Achim

    2016-04-01

    Lake sediments can be utilized as valuable paleoclimate and environmental archives as they contain information of past changes. Multi-proxy analyses of sedimentary compartments (e.g. pollen, diatoms, Cladocera) reveal those changes. However, to decipher the spatial variability of past climate changes and to define the proxies suited for local and regional scale reconstructions archive comparisons are needed. Here we present a detailed multi-proxy study from four different sediment cores covering the Younger Dryas cold period from the Lake Czechowskie region (N Poland). Three cores are located along a transect in the Lake Czechowskie basin from its deepest point towards a former lake bay close to today's shoreline. The fourth lacustrine sediment core was retrieved from the Trzechowskie paleolake, app. 1 km W from Lake Czechowskie. The dataset comprises information from pollen (AP, NAP, Juniperus, Betula-tree, Pinus silvestris), diatom (planktonic/benthic index, diatom valve concentration, dominant species), Cladocera (planktonic/benthic index, dominant species, number of Cladocera species, total sum of specimens) and geochemical (TOC and CaCO3 content, mineral matter, titanium) analyses. At the beginning of the Younger Dryas the AP pollen share decreased and NAP and Juniperus pollen increased in all studied locations. The mineral matter and titanium record showed higher values in two cores taken from the deepest parts of Lake Czechowskie and the core from Trzechowskie paleolake while in the core located at the marginal part of the lake it was already high in Allerød and it did not change much in Younger Dryas. The Cladocera based indexes: total sum of specimens and number of species decreased at the beginning of YD but on the contrary the Cladocera species composition changes were site-specific. The diatoms valve concentration index significantly lowered in core from the deep location while on the contrary increased in core from paleolake Trzechowskie. Our results

  16. The effect of the thermal component change on regional climate indices in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joksimović Marko M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of climate changes is most often based on the analysis of time series of temperature and precipitation in urban areas and the increase in the emission of gases having a greenhouse effect. On the other hand, the selection of representative and relevant stations and comprehensive analysis of climate indicators lead to better and more exact assessments on climate changes at the regional level. In order to connect climate changes with agricultural, biological, socio-economic and tourism databases, the paper deals with the dynamic analysis of changes in thermal component expressed through the values of regional climate indices in four climatological stations with different geographical positions in Serbia. There are significant differences between the two time series data (1961-1990 and 1991-2013 on temperature and humidity, precipitation, insolation and wind speed. However, after using the climatic indices as a tool for assessing climate changes, the results of the study suggest the relative influence of the thermal component on the change of climate indices, with a slight increase in the index of significance for human activities. Relying on the results of this alternative approach to the study of climate changes, the fact remains that the climate is not fixed but highly variable factor that should be taken into consideration in terms of monitoring, evaluation and management of the area. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 176008 i br. III47007

  17. The Amazon region: tropical deforestation, biogeochemical cycles and the climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabat, P.; Andreae, M.O.; Silva-Dias, M.A.; Veraart, J.A.; Brink, N.J.

    2003-01-01

    The biogeochemical cycling of carbon, water, energy, aerosols, and trace gases in the Amazon Basin, and the interactions between deforestation, rainfall and climate were all investigated in this programme as a part of an integrated cluster of inter-linked and complementary research projects. These i

  18. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walsum, van P.E.V.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The couplin

  19. A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE SHRUNK WETLAND AROUND QINGHAI LAKE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG HanJie; JING Li; GAO YunXiao

    2005-01-01

    Because of the increasing concerns about global climate change, it has been known by more and more peoples that there is a close relationship between wetland and/or peatland resources and climate change. This paper presents a new methodology to study the local climate variation caused by wetland shrinking around Qinghai Lake, the largest in-land salty lake in China, by use of a regional climate model (RCM) that commonly used in climate change study. The objective focuses on the regional climate effect of the shrunk wetland coverage in recent years. The results of numerical experiment showed that if the wetland coverage around Qinhai Lake were recovered as if in early 50s of last century,the regional climate in this area could be better with more cloud covers, higher relative humidity and more precipitation. In the other word, the area of wetland reduced is one of the most important reasons that caused regional climate aridification,eco-environmental deterioration and even desertification around Qinhai Lake.

  20. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability.

  1. STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCING SYSTEMATIC ERRORS ON MONTHLY REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL FORECAST

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Xin-min; XI Chao-li

    2009-01-01

    A nested-model system is constructed by embedding the regional climate model RegCM3 into a general circulation model tbr monthly-scale regional climate forecast over East China. The systematic errors are formulated for the region on the basis of 10-yr (1991-2000) results of the nested-model system,and of the datasets of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the temperature analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC),U.S.A.,which are then used for correcting the original forecast by the system for the period 2001-2005. After the assessment of the original and corrected forecasts for monthly precipitation and surthce air temperature,it is found that the corrected forecast is apparently better than the original,suggesting that the approach can be applied for improving monthly-scale regional climate dynamical lbrecast.

  2. Evaluation and study climatic and hydrographic recreational resources of Dnipropetrovsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorb A.S.

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Done scoring and studied the characteristics of the geographical distribution of recreational climatic and geographical hydro resources Dnipropetrovsk region. For calculations used statistical data observations for the period 1964 - 2005.

  3. 75 FR 4411 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Department of the Interior Regional Climate Science...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-27

    ... science partners. Information from this collection will be used to evaluate proposals submitted for... United States Geological Survey Agency Information Collection Activities: Department of the Interior Regional Climate Science Centers AGENCY: United States Geological Survey (USGS), Interior. ACTION:...

  4. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    OpenAIRE

    Mondal, A.; P. P. Mujumdar

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand ...

  5. Regional Impact of Climate on Japanese Encephalitis in Areas Located near the Three Gorges Dam

    OpenAIRE

    Yuntao Bai; Zhiguang Xu; Jing Zhang; Deqiang Mao; Chao Luo; Yuanyuan He; Guodong Liang; Bo Lu; Michael S. Bisesi; Qinghua Sun; Xinyi Xu; Weizhong Yang; Qiyong Liu

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In this study, we aim to identify key climatic factors that are associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in areas located near the Three Gorges Dam, between 1997 and 2008. METHODS: We identified three geographical regions of Chongqing, based on their distance from the Three Gorges Dam. Collectively, the three regions consisted of 12 districts from which study information was collected. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models were run to identify key climatic...

  6. Problems and Ways of Improving the Business Climate in the Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Nazym Aminovna Uruzbaeva

    2016-01-01

    The existence of the specific conditions and development factors of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the regions of Kazakhstan supposes the differentiated state policy in order to maintain a favorable business climate. The article presents the results of the research whose purpose was to determine the main issues and directions of the improvement of the business climate in the regions. This allows to intensify the activities of local authorities in support of SMEs conside...

  7. Tree recruitment in the Forest-tundra Ecotone : Limitation and facilitation processes in contrasting climatic Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Albertsen, Elena

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this study was to analyse how abiotic and biotic constraint and facilitation agents determine tree recruitment in the alpine zone in climatically different regions as well as across species; Birch, pine and spruce. Location: The study was located to Grødalen, Haltdalen and Røros representing a coastal-inland gradient, where birch was included along the entire climatic gradient and all three species in one region (Haltdalen). Methods: Variables collected for seedling/...

  8. CHANGES IN LAND COVER AND USE AFFECT THE LOCAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE IN PIRACICABA, BRAZIL

    OpenAIRE

    Priscila Pereira Coltri; Nelson Jesus Ferreira; Saulo Freitas; Valdemar Antonio Demetrio

    2008-01-01

    Land use and changes in land cover play an important role in local and regional climatic conditions, especially in tropical regions. Piracicaba, a city in southeastern Brazil, has an economy that is based primarily on sugar cane cultivation. The seasonality of this crop means that there are marked annual fluctuations in land use and cover in this municipality. In this work, we investigated the seasonal variation in urban heat-islands and local climatic variations by using remote sensing data,...

  9. Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers

    OpenAIRE

    Olivier Blarquez; Ali, Adam A.; Girardin, Martin P.; Pierre Grondin; Bianca Fréchette; Yves Bergeron; Christelle Hély

    2015-01-01

    Climate, vegetation and humans act on biomass burning at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a dense network of sedimentary charcoal records from eastern Canada to reconstruct regional biomass burning history over the last 7000 years at the scale of four potential vegetation types: open coniferous forest/tundra, boreal coniferous forest, boreal mixedwood forest and temperate forest. The biomass burning trajectories were compared with regional climate trends reconstru...

  10. Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change impacts on US regional and urban air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Trail

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (Western US, Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (northeast. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

  11. Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

  12. Climatic effects on cooling load determination in subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prevailing local climatic conditions affect the building loads and the heating, ventilating and air conditioning equipment sizing and performance. This paper presents work on the determination of outdoor design conditions for cooling load calculation. The computer package DOE-2.1E was used to simulate the hourly cooling load of a generic commercial office building in Hong Kong. Totally, 22 weather data sets, from 1979 to 2000, were used for the analysis. The findings indicate that the outdoor climatic conditions developed for cooling load estimation via the simulations are less stringent than the current outdoor design data and approaches adopted by local architectural and engineering practices. Building designers should select and evaluate critically the outdoor design conditions in order to achieve optimum air conditioning equipment sizing

  13. Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon; de Elía, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    The Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) measures the response of global temperatures to cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the TCRE is a global quantity, climate impacts manifest predominantly in response to local climate changes. Here we quantify the link between CO2 emissions and regional temperature change, showing that regional temperatures also respond approximately linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions. Using an ensemble of twelve Earth system models, we present a novel application of pattern scaling to define the regional pattern of temperature change per emission of CO2. Ensemble mean regional TCRE values range from less than 1 °C per TtC for some ocean regions, to more than 5 °C per TtC in the Arctic, with a pattern of higher values over land and at high northern latitudes. We find also that high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions. The strong linearity of the regional climate response over most land regions provides a robust way to quantitatively link anthropogenic CO2 emissions to local-scale climate impacts.

  14. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  15. Integrated Analysis of Climate, Soil, Topography and Vegetative Growth in Iberian Viticultural Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cancela, Javier J.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Santos, João A.

    2015-04-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  16. Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

    2014-01-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  17. Simulated climate variability in the region of Rapa Nui during the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Junk

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Easter Island, an isolated island in the Southeast Pacific, was settled by the Polynesians probably between 600 and 1200 AD and discovered by the Europeans in 1722 AD. While the Polynesians presumably found a profuse palm woodland on Easter Island, the Europeans faced a landscape dominated by grassland. Scientists have examined potential anthropogenic, biological and climatic induced vegetation changes on Easter Island. Here, we analyze observational climate data for the last decades and climate model results for the period 800–1750 AD to explore potential causes for a climatic-induced vegetation change. A direct influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the climatic parameters of Easter Island could not be found in the model simulations. Furthermore, strong climatic trends from a warm Medieval Period to a Little Ice Age or rapid climatic fluctuations due to large volcanic eruptions were not verifiable for the Easter Island region, although they are detectable in the simulations for many regions world wide. Hence we tentatively conclude that large-scale climate changes in the oceanic region around Easter Island might be too small to explain strong vegetation changes on the island over the last millennium.

  18. Simulated climate variability in the region of Rapa Nui during the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Junk

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapa Nui, an isolated island in the Southeast Pacific, was settled by the Polynesians most likely around 1200 AD and was discovered by the Europeans in 1722 AD. While the Polynesians presumably found a profuse palm woodland on Rapa Nui, the Europeans faced a landscape dominated by grassland. Scientists have examined potential anthropogenic, biological and climatic induced vegetation changes on Rapa Nui. Here, we analyse observational climate data for the last decades and climate model results for the period 800–1750 AD to explore the potential for a climatic-induced vegetation change. A direct influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the climatic parameters of Rapa Nui could not be found in the model simulations. Furthermore, strong climatic trends from a warm Medieval Period to a Little Ice Age or rapid climatic fluctuations due to large volcanic eruptions were not verifiable for the Rapa Nui region, although they are detectable in the simulations for many regions world wide. Hence, we tentatively conclude that large-scale climate changes in the oceanic region around Rapa Nui might be too small to explain strong vegetation changes on the island over the last millennium.

  19. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

  20. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  1. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies. PMID:24113738

  2. Performance of ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Central Europe using various metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtanová, Eva; Mikšovský, Jiří; Kalvová, Jaroslava; Pišoft, Petr; Motl, Martin

    2012-05-01

    We show the evaluation of ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis ERA40 over a region centered at the Czech Republic. Attention is paid especially to the model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ, being used as the basis of the new climate change scenarios simulation for the Czech Republic. The validation criteria used here are based on monthly or seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation. We concentrate not only on spatiotemporal mean values but also on temporal standard deviation, inter-annual variability, the mean annual cycle, and the skill of the models to represent the observed spatial patterns of these quantities. Model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ performs quite well in comparison to the other RCMs; we find its performance satisfactory for further use for impact studies. However, it is also shown that the results of evaluation of the RCMs' skill in simulating observed climate strongly depend on the criteria incorporated for the evaluation.

  3. Climate Change and South Asia: What Makes the Region Most Vulnerable?

    OpenAIRE

    Islam, A.K.M. Nazrul; Sultan, Salma; Afroz,

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is no more a distant possibility rather a reality. Due to geo-physical conditions and socio-economic-demographic backwardness South Asia is projected as one of the worst affected regions from global warming and climate change. The region is the home of about 1.5 billion of the world’s population and a chunk of the global poor. Climate change will affect agriculture sector across South Asian countries very hard. The overwhelming dependence on agriculture and natural resources fo...

  4. The representation of location by a regional climate model in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, D.; Widmann, M.

    2015-08-01

    To assess potential impacts of climate change for a specific location, one typically employs climate model simulations at the grid box corresponding to the same geographical location. For most of Europe, this choice is well justified. But, based on regional climate simulations, we show that simulated climate might be systematically displaced compared to observations. In particular in the rain shadow of mountain ranges, a local grid box is therefore often not representative of observed climate: the simulated windward weather does not flow far enough across the mountains; local grid boxes experience the wrong air masses and atmospheric circulation. In some cases, also the local climate change signal is deteriorated. Classical bias correction methods fail to correct these location errors. Often, however, a distant simulated time series is representative of the considered observed precipitation, such that a non-local bias correction is possible. These findings also clarify limitations of bias correcting global model errors, and of bias correction against station data.

  5. The representation of location by regional climate models in complex terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Maraun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available To assess potential impacts of climate change for a specific location, one typically employs climate model simulations at the grid box corresponding to the same geographical location. But based on regional climate model simulations, we show that simulated climate might be systematically displaced compared to observations. In particular in the rain shadow of moutain ranges, a local grid box is therefore often not representative of observed climate: the simulated windward weather does not flow far enough across the mountains; local grid boxes experience the wrong airmasses and atmospheric circulation. In some cases, also the local climate change signal is deteriorated. Classical bias correction methods fail to correct these location errors. Often, however, a distant simulated time series is representative of the considered observed precipitation, such that a non-local bias correction is possible. These findings also clarify limitations of bias correcting global model errors, and of bias correction against station data.

  6. Role of climate variability in the heatstroke death rates of Kanto region in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akihiko, Takaya; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K

    2014-07-10

    The death toll by heatstroke in Japan, especially in Kanto region, has sharply increased since 1994 together with large interannual variability. The surface air temperature and humidity observed during boreal summers of 1980-2010 were examined to understand the role of climate in the death toll. The extremely hot days, when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C, are more strongly associated with the death toll than the conventional Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index. The extremely hot days tend to be associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting a potential link with tropical climate variability to the heatstroke related deaths. Also, the influence of these climate modes on the death toll has strengthened since 1994 probably related to global warming. It is possible to develop early warning systems based on seasonal climate predictions since recent climate models show excellent predictability skills for those climate modes.

  7. Effect of climatic change on surface environments in the typical region of Horqin Sandy Land

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The town of Agura,a typical region in Horqin Sandy Land,was selected as the study area in this paper.Using 12 remote sensing images and climatic data from the past 20 years,the effects of climate change on surface environments were analyzed.The impact indices of climatic factors,along with their corresponding ranks,were used to characterize the responses of different types of surface environments to climate change.Results show that in the past 20 years,the surface environments of the study area have been deteriorating.Furthermore,there is a positive relationship between the changes in surface environments and those in climatic factors.Various climatic factors influence surface environments in different ways and at different levels.The most sensitive factor is relative humidity,followed by precipitation and evaporation.Overall,moisture is the key factor that affects the changes in surface environments of arid and semi-arid areas.

  8. Role of climate variability in the heatstroke death rates of Kanto region in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akihiko, Takaya; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2014-07-01

    The death toll by heatstroke in Japan, especially in Kanto region, has sharply increased since 1994 together with large interannual variability. The surface air temperature and humidity observed during boreal summers of 1980-2010 were examined to understand the role of climate in the death toll. The extremely hot days, when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35°C, are more strongly associated with the death toll than the conventional Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index. The extremely hot days tend to be associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting a potential link with tropical climate variability to the heatstroke related deaths. Also, the influence of these climate modes on the death toll has strengthened since 1994 probably related to global warming. It is possible to develop early warning systems based on seasonal climate predictions since recent climate models show excellent predictability skills for those climate modes.

  9. Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg

    2016-04-01

    Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and

  10. European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.

  11. Analysis of Extreme Heat in Historical and Projected Climate Simulations for Regional Climate Planning Purposes in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geil, K.; Zeng, X.; McMahan, B.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) states that global climate models predict more extreme temperatures and more frequent, intense, and longer heat waves on a regional basis as global temperatures rise throughout the 21st century, but a thorough test of whether these models can simulate observed heat metrics and trends over the historical period was not included in the assessment. Understanding the capabilities of climate models over the historical period is crucial to assessing our confidence in their predictive ability at regional scales. Our work fills this research gap by evaluating the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) models as compared to observational data using multiple heat metrics. Our metrics are targeted for the southwest United States, but our regional analysis covers the entire continental U.S. and Alaska using 7 of the regions delineated by the NCA. The heat metrics include heat wave and cold wave frequency, intensity, and duration, overnight low temperatures, onset and length of the hot season, and human heat stress. For the best performing models, we compute the same heat metrics for the RCP scenarios. In addition to presenting the results of our CMIP5 historical and RCP analyses, we also describe how our results may be applied to the benefit of our community in Southern Arizona as a case study. Our research will be used by NOAA's Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) and by an interdisciplinary collaborative team of researchers from the University of Arizona working with an electric utility to integrate climate information into their strategic planning.

  12. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  13. Florida-focused climate change lesson demonstrations from the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    A variety of Florida-focused climate change activities will be featured as part of the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops. In a combined effort from Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and University of South Florida's Coalition for Science Literacy (CSL), and supported by NASA's NICE initiative, the ASK Florida professional development workshops are a series of workshops designed to enhance and support climate change information and related pedagogical skills for middle school science teachers from Title-I schools in Florida. These workshops took place during a two-year period from 2011 to 2013 and consisted of two cohorts in Hillsborough and Volusia counties in Florida. Featured activities include lab-style exercises demonstrating topics such as storm surge and coastal geometry, sea level rise from thermal expansion, and the greenhouse effect. These types of labs are modified so that they allow more independent, inquiry thinking as they require teachers to design their own experiment in order to test a hypothesis. Lecture based activities are used to cover a broad range of topics including hurricanes, climate modeling, and sink holes. The more innovative activities are group activities that utilize roll-playing, technology and resources, and group discussion. For example, 'Climate Gallery Walk' is an activity that features group discussions on each of the climate literacy principles established by the United States Global Change Research Program. By observing discussions between individuals and groups, this activity helps the facilitators gather information on their previous knowledge and identify possible misconceptions that will be addressed within the workshops. Furthermore, 'Fact or Misconception' presents the challenge of identifying whether a given statement is fact or misconception based on the material covered throughout the workshops. It serves as a way to

  14. Climate-Smart Landscapes for Managing Water Resources in the Tea Growing Regions of Northeast India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, N.; Biggs, E. M.; Saikia, S. D.; Duncan, J.

    2015-12-01

    Tea is an important global agricultural commodity, both commercially and culturally. Assam, an agrarian state in northeast India is the largest single tea growing region in the world and the productivity (both in terms of quantity and quality) requires a specific range of enviro-climatic conditions. Precipitation and temperature are two climate factors which highly influence productivity. Thus water plays a critical role in sustaining future tea production in Assam. Recently the region has been affected by heterogeneous spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and rising temperatures. This has led to temporally varying drought-like conditions during the tea production season, reducing crop resilience and degrading yield quality. Quantifying regional climate-yield characteristics enables more effective decision-making regarding climate change mitigation, water resources management and adaptation to sustain (and enhance) future tea crop production. This research used a panel based regression model to statistically quantify the extent to which precipitation and temperature variables are associated with changes in tea yield. Monthly time-series climate and yield data were regressed for the period 2004 to 2014. Yield data were obtained from 80 tea estates across the four main tea growing regions of Assam, and 120 climate variables were selected for analysis. Results indicate that periods of drought (e.g. more than 10 consecutive days of zero precipitation) are significantly associated with reductions in yield, whereas periods of intense precipitation (e.g. number of days where the 95th percentile was exceeded) are generally associated with increased yield. These results have provided an enhanced understanding of climate-yield characteristics, which will subsequently be used to deliver more climate-smart advisory decision-support services to tea producers in the region. Although water resources management practices, such as water harvesting structures, check dams

  15. Scalability of regional climate change in Europe for high-end scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, O. B.; Yang, S.; Boberg, F.;

    2015-01-01

    With the help of a simulation using the global circulation model (GCM) EC-Earth, downscaled over Europe with the regional model DMI-HIRHAM5 at a 25 km grid point distance, we investigated regional climate change corresponding to 6°C of global warming to investigate whether regional climate change...... are close to the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We investigated the extent to which pattern scaling holds, i.e. the approximation that the amplitude of any climate change will be approximately proportional to the amount of global warming. We address this question through a comparison of climate change results...... generally scales with global temperature even for very high levels of global warming. Through a complementary analysis of CMIP5 GCM results, we estimated the time at which this temperature may be reached; this warming could be reached in the first half of the 22nd century provided that future emissions...

  16. Climate Change and Regulation in International and Regional Level, Especially the Built Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putnoki Zsuzsanna

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article starts with a brief insight into the history of climate change, with a scope on the international and legal aspects of ever-changing regulations. The regional level is in the article is The European Union, as the only regional economic integration organization under the Kyoto Protocol. It deals with the United Nation’s international agreements like UNFCCC its Kyoto’s Protocol and the Post-Kyoto era. It also analyses the EU’s system in the climate change law with correspondence the international rules. Comparison between international and regional legislation in the climate change is used as a tool of analysis. Finally an insight is given into a special field in the climate change, the build environment, reflecting on the related United Nation’s recommendation and the EU’s regulation.

  17. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niiranen, S.; Yletyinen, J.; Tomczak, M.T.;

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed...... approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional...... biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future...

  18. Climate change, water, and agriculture: a study of two contrasting regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.; Zhang, X.

    2009-12-01

    We present a study of potential impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in two contrasting regions, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia and the Northern Great Plains in the United States. The Aral Sea basin is one of the most anthropogenically modified areas of the world; it is also a zone of a water-related ecological crisis. We concentrate on studying water security of five countries in the region, which inherit their water regulation from the planned economy of USSR. Water management was targeted at maximizing agricultural output through diverting the river flow into an extensive and largely ineffective network of irrigation canals. The current water crisis is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region. In the same way as the Aral Sea basin, the Northern Great Plains is expected to be a region heavily impacted by climate change. We concentrate on

  19. Regional climate change and the impact on hydrology in the Volta Basin of West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, G.

    2006-10-15

    The Volta Basin is a climate sensitive, semi-arid to sub-humid region in West Africa. Livelihood of the population is mainly dependent on agriculture and therefore highly vulnerable to rainfall variability and climate change. For an investigation of the impact of a possible global climate change to regional climate and surface, as well as sub-surface hydrology in the region of the Volta Basin, coupled regional climate-hydrology simulations were performed. Therefore, the mesoscale meteorological model MM5 was set up, fully coupled to a 1-dimensional SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) model, to account for soilatmosphere feedback mechanisms. After a validation was performed, MM5 was used as a regional climate model to simulated two 10-years time slices: 1991-2000 and 2030-2039. The emission scenario IS92a output of the global climate model ECHAM4 was downscaled dynamically, to a final resolution of 9km, for the Volta Basin. These regional climate simulations were then coupled to the physically based, distributed hydrological model WaSiM, after the calibration and adaptation of the hydrological model to the study region. A comparison the GCM output, as well as the RCM output for present-day climate simulation to observations showed a wet bias over the Sahel and a sufficient accuracy in temperature representation for the ECHAM4, present-day simulation (1961-1990). In the regional climate simulations, the displacement of the Inter Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) to the North at the beginning of the rainy season, as well as the displacement South, at the end occur too early. Rainfall also showed a negative deviation along the coast but a sufficient accuracy in the Volta Basin. The study demonstrates the ability of the coupled modelling system to reasonably simulate West African climate and hydrology conditions. For the selected scenario and time slices, the change signal in precipitation, as well as surface and subsurface hydrology variables lies with few exceptions

  20. Evaluation of an IPCC climate report. An analysis of conclusions on the possible regional consequences of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report contains the results of a study of the reliability of the regional chapters (H9-16) of the contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Climate Report of the IPCC (the sub report on consequences, adaptation and vulnerability). Moreover an assessment was made of the possible consequences of errors for the conclusions in the high level summaries of that report. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency did not detect any errors that may undermine the main conclusions of the scientific UN Climate Panel IPCC of 2007 on the possible future consequences of climate change. However, some of the substantiations of the conclusions lack clarity. To prevent lack of clarity and inaccuracies the IPCC needs to invest more in quality checks.

  1. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [University of Kansas; Mechem, David [University of Kansas; Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State University

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  2. Development of Crop Yield Estimation Method by Applying Seasonal Climate Prediction in Asia-Pacific Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Y.; Lee, E.

    2015-12-01

    Under the influence of recent climate change, abnormal weather condition such as floods and droughts has issued frequently all over the world. The occurrence of abnormal weather in major crop production areas leads to soaring world grain prices because it influence the reduction of crop yield. Development of crop yield estimation method is important means to accommodate the global food crisis caused by abnormal weather. However, due to problems with the reliability of the seasonal climate prediction, application research on agricultural productivity has not been much progress yet. In this study, it is an object to develop long-term crop yield estimation method in major crop production countries worldwide using multi seasonal climate prediction data collected by APEC Climate Center. There are 6-month lead seasonal predictions produced by six state-of-the-art global coupled ocean-atmosphere models(MSC_CANCM3, MSC_CANCM4, NASA, NCEP, PNU, POAMA). First of all, we produce a customized climate data through temporal and spatial downscaling methods for use as a climatic input data to the global scale crop model. Next, we evaluate the uncertainty of climate prediction by applying multi seasonal climate prediction in the crop model. Because rice is the most important staple food crop in the Asia-Pacific region, we assess the reliability of the rice yields using seasonal climate prediction for main rice production countries. RMSE(Root Mean Squire Error) and TCC(Temporal Correlation Coefficient) analysis is performed in Asia-Pacific countries, major 14 rice production countries, to evaluate the reliability of the rice yield according to the climate prediction models. We compare the rice yield data obtained from FAOSTAT and estimated using the seasonal climate prediction data in Asia-Pacific countries. In addition, we show that the reliability of seasonal climate prediction according to the climate models in Asia-Pacific countries where rice cultivation is being carried out.

  3. Feedback of forest distribution on the simulated climate of the metropolitan region of Hamburg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Juliane; Gálos, Borbála; Rechid, Diana

    2013-04-01

    Regional climate change projections show a changing climate in the metropolitan region of Hamburg for the end of the century: The temperature could increase and the precipitation in summer could decrease. To cope with the probably longer lasting and hotter summer conditions in Europe there are different possible adaptation measures in land management practice, e.g. forest conversion. That means the conversion of mostly coniferous forest monocultures to deciduous and mixed forests. Mixed forests are generally more adaptable in comparison to conifer forests. They ensure an increased groundwater recharge because of less canopy interception and reduced transpiration outside the growing season. An interesting question is how forest conversion would feedback to the regional climate under different climate conditions. To explore climate feedbacks, REMO (regional climate model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg) is applied. To get a more realistic representation of the land surface, a current dataset from a digital basis landscape model of the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy is used instead of the standard representation of the land surface in REMO. In some areas of the metropolitan region of Hamburg the updated land surface increases the forest fraction. Additionally, all coniferous forest types are converted into broadleaf forest types to study the maximum impact on the simulated near surface climate. This set-up is used for a climate simulation with REMO, forced by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data for the period of 1990-2008. Selected climate variables are analyzed and the associated processes are investigated: The different forest distributions affect particularly the evapotranspiration and thus the water- and energy cycle of the soil and the lower atmosphere. Especially, the effects in the very hot and dry year 2003 and in the wet year 2002 are analyzed. To study the impacts of the forest distributions under different climate conditions, a

  4. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Jagger, Thomas H.; James B. Elsner; Widen, Holly M.

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term...

  5. The representation of location by regional climate models in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2015-04-01

    To assess potential impacts of climate change for a specific location, one typically employs climate model simulations at the grid box corresponding to the same geographical location. But based on regional climate model simulations, we show that simulated climate might be systematically displaced compared to bservations. In particular in the rain shadow of moutain ranges, a local grid box is therefore often not representative of observed climate: the simulated windward weather does not flow far enough across the mountains; local grid boxes experience the wrong airmasses and atmospheric circulation. In some cases, also the local climate change signal is deteriorated. Classical bias correction methods fail to correct these location errors. Often, however, a distant simulated time series is representative of the considered observed precipitation, such that a non-local bias correction is possible. We illustrate the problem based on regional climate model simulations for Europe. Especially over complex topography such as the rain shadow of the Alps, local grid-box values often do not represent observed climate. A non-local bias correction, for the Alps based on simulated data from the windward side of the main mountain ridge, considerably improves the representation. These findings also clarify limitations of bias correcting global model errors, and of bias correction against station data.

  6. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  7. Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Steen

    Full Text Available The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs. We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%. However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper to -100% (Wilson's Snipe. Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

  8. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  9. Climate variability in the Carpathian Mountains Region over 1961-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheval, Sorin; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru

    2014-07-01

    The Carpathian Mountains Region (CMR) lies over parts of the territories of seven Central and Southeastern European countries, and the mountain chain induces major changes in the temperate climate specific to the latitudes between 43° and 49°N. Different administrations govern the long-term meteorological networks; the infrastructure, collection protocols, and storage capacities are specific to each country, so that a comprehensive study on the climate of the area has met considerable difficulties along time. Climate of the Carpathian Region (CARPATCLIM) is a regional initiative developed between 2010 and 2013 aiming to enhance the climatic information in the area by providing comprehensive, temporally and spatially homogenous data sets of the main meteorological variables. Based on daily data aggregated to a monthly scale at 10-km resolution, this study exploits and promotes the results of the CARPATCLIM project, documenting the variability of the main climatic variables over 1961-2010. For each month, the significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified, mapped and placed in the context of previous studies and climate change perspectives. The study has revealed several patterns in the climatic variability, i.e., positive or negative trends prevailing over the entire area, very distinct delineation between various trends induced by the Carpathian Mountain chain, and pledges for further scientific approaches, i.e., causes of the variability and applications in other domains.

  10. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

  11. Testing the ability of RIEMS2.0 (Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System) on regional climate simulation in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, D.; Fu, C.; Yan, X.

    2010-12-01

    RIEMS1.0 (Regional Integrated Environmental Modeling System version 1.0) was developed by researchers from the START (Global change System for Analysis, Research, and Training) Regional Center for Temperate East Asia, IAP/CAS in 1998. The model was built on the thermodynamic frame of PSU/NCAR MM5V2, into which a land surface scheme (BATS1e) and radiative transfer scheme (the revised CCM3) are integrated. The model has been widely used in regional climate studies in the East Asia monsoon system and expresses excellent performance from RMIP (Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project). RIEMS2.0 is now being developed starting from RIEMS1.0 by the Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, IAP/CAS, and Nanjing University. The new version is built on the thermodynamic framework of nonhydrostatic approximation from MM5V3 with the same land surface model and radiation scheme as RIEMS1.0. To make it an integrated modeling system, the Princeton ocean mode (POM), Atmosphere-Vegetation interaction model (AVIM) and a chemical model are now being integrated. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate short-term climate, we perform ensemble simulations with different physics process schemes. The model will be used to perform ensemble simulations on two continuous extreme climate events, which is serve drought with high temperature in north China in the summer (June, July and August) of 1997 and serve flood in the Yangtze River valley in the summer of 1998. The results show that RIEMS2.0 can reproduce the spatial distribution of the precipitation and SAT from two continuous extreme climate events in the summer of 1997/1998, and disclose sub-regional characteristics. Though difference can be found among ensemble members, ensembles can decrease the model’s uncertainty and improve the simulation decision in a certain degree. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate long-term climate and climate change, we compare

  12. NOAA/NCEI/Regional Climate Services: Working with Partners and Stakeholders across a Wide Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecray, E. L.

    2015-12-01

    Federal agencies all require plans to be prepared at the state level that outline the implementation of funding to address wildlife habitat, human health, transportation infrastructure, coastal zone management, environmental management, emergency management, and others. These plans are now requiring the consideration of changing climate conditions. So where does a state turn to discuss lessons learned, obtain tools and information to assess climate conditions, and to work with other states in their region? Regional networks and collaboratives are working to deliver this sector by sector. How do these networks work? Do they fit together in any way? What similarities and differences exist? Is anyone talking across these lines to find common climate information requirements? A sketch is forming that links these efforts, not by blending the sectors, but by finding the areas where coordination is critical, where information needs are common, and where delivery mechanisms can be streamlined. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's Regional Climate Services Directors have been working at the interface of stakeholder-driven information delivery since 2010. This talk will outline the regional climate services delivery framework for the Eastern Region, with examples of regional products and information.

  13. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  14. Problems and Ways of Improving the Business Climate in the Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazym Aminovna Uruzbaeva

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The existence of the specific conditions and development factors of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs in the regions of Kazakhstan supposes the differentiated state policy in order to maintain a favorable business climate. The article presents the results of the research whose purpose was to determine the main issues and directions of the improvement of the business climate in the regions. This allows to intensify the activities of local authorities in support of SMEs considering the peculiarities of the territories’ development. The subject matter of this research is the conditions and factors generating the business climate of the region. As a hypothesis, a direct connection between the prevailing regional business climate and the development of the quantitative indicators of active SMEs in the field was assumed. The study used the method of comparative analysis, sociological methods of focus groups, survey research, statistical methods and statistical methods of ranking and grouping. The article theoretically substantiates the correctness of the usage of «business climate» category as a scope of the study in the framework of the project of «Implementation of «Business Climate» as an Independent Rating», which makes possible the argumentation of the used methodology and concretization of the factors affecting the functioning of SMEs in the regions. This research has confirmed the direct correlation between the established business climate in the regions and quantitative indicators of the development of SMEs at the local level. Such factors as “financial resources” and “government support” have been determined as limiting the business development in a greater degree. In conclusion, a set of measures to improve the business climate in the region both at national and regional levels of government has been provided. In addition, it has been concluded that to generate a favorable business environment in the regions of

  15. Intersections of downscaling, the ethics of climate services, and regional research grand challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitson, B.; Jack, C. D.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    Possibly the leading complication for users of climate information for policy and adaptation is the confusing mix of contrasting data sets that offer widely differing (and often times fundamentally contradictory) indications of the magnitude and direction of past and future regional climate change. In this light, the most pressing scientific-societal challenge is the need to find new ways to understand the sources of conflicting messages from multi-model, multi-method and multi-scale disparities, to develop and implement new analytical methodologies to address this difficulty and so to advance the interpretation and communication of robust climate information to decision makers. Compounding this challenge is the growth of climate services which, in view of the confusing mix of climate change messages, raises serious concerns as to the ethics of communication and dissemination of regional climate change data.The Working Group on Regional Climate (WGRC) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) oversees the CORDEX downscaling program which offers a systematic approach to compare the CMIP5 GCMs alongside RCMs and Empirical-statistical (ESD) downscaling within a common experimental design, and which facilitates the evaluation and assessment of the relative information content and sources of error. Using results from the CORDEX RCM and ESD evaluation experiment, and set against the regional messages from the CMIP5 GCMs, we examine the differing messages that arise from each data source. These are then considered in terms of the implications of consequence if each data source were to be independently adopted in a real world use-case scenario. This is then cast in the context of the emerging developments on the distillation dilemma - where the pressing need is for multi-method integration - and how this relates to the WCRP regional research grand challenges.

  16. Alpine bird distributions along elevation gradients: the consistency of climate and habitat effects across geographic regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Dan; Brambilla, Mattia; Caprio, Enrico; Pedrini, Paolo; Rolando, Antonio

    2016-08-01

    Many species have shown recent shifts in their distributions in response to climate change. Patterns in species occurrence or abundance along altitudinal gradients often serve as the basis for detecting such changes and assessing future sensitivity. Quantifying the distribution of species along altitudinal gradients acts as a fundamental basis for future studies on environmental change impacts, but in order for models of altitudinal distribution to have wide applicability, it is necessary to know the extent to which altitudinal trends in occurrence are consistent across geographically separated areas. This was assessed by fitting models of bird species occurrence across altitudinal gradients in relation to habitat and climate variables in two geographically separated alpine regions, Piedmont and Trentino. The ten species studied showed non-random altitudinal distributions which in most cases were consistent across regions in terms of pattern. Trends in relation to altitude and differences between regions could be explained mostly by habitat or a combination of habitat and climate variables. Variation partitioning showed that most variation explained by the models was attributable to habitat, or habitat and climate together, rather than climate alone or geographic region. The shape and position of the altitudinal distribution curve is important as it can be related to vulnerability where the available space is limited, i.e. where mountains are not of sufficient altitude for expansion. This study therefore suggests that incorporating habitat and climate variables should be sufficient to construct models with high transferability for many alpine species. PMID:27139426

  17. Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

    2012-12-01

    The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key

  18. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  19. The MIT IGSM-CAM framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) version 2.3 is an intermediate complexity fully coupled earth system model that allows simulation of critical feedbacks among its various components, including the atmosphere, ocean, land, urban processes and human activities. A fundamental feature of the IGSM2.3 is the ability to modify its climate parameters: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. As such, the IGSM2.3 provides an efficient tool for generating probabilistic distribution functions of climate parameters using optimal fingerprint diagnostics. A limitation of the IGSM2.3 is its zonal-mean atmosphere model that does not permit regional climate studies. For this reason, the MIT IGSM2.3 was linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 and new modules were developed and implemented in CAM in order to modify its climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing to match that of the IGSM. The IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and innovative framework to study regional climate change where climate parameters can be modified to span the range of uncertainty and various emissions scenarios can be tested. This paper presents results from the cloud radiative adjustment method used to modify CAM's climate sensitivity. We also show results from 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (a median "business as usual" scenario where no policy is implemented after 2012 and a policy scenario where greenhouse-gas are stabilized at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent concentrations by 2100) and three sets of climate parameters. The three values of climate sensitivity chosen are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the observed 20th century climate change with simulations by the IGSM with a wide range of climate parameters values. The associated aerosol forcing values were chosen to ensure a good agreement of the simulations

  20. Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: Past, present & future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Henry F.; Grosjean, Martin; Graumlich, Lisa J.

    2003-01-01

    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research and review articles, arising from papers that were presented and discussed at a workshop held in Davos, Switzerland on 25–28 June 2001. The workshop was titled ‘Climate Change at High Elevation Sites: Emerging Impacts’, and was convened to reprise an earlier conference on the same subject that was held in Wengen, Switzerland in 1995 (Diaz et al., 1997). The Davos meeting had as its main goals, a discussion of the following key issues: (1) reviewing recent climatic trends in high elevation regions of the world, (2) assessing the reliability of various biological indicators as indicators of climatic change, and (3) assessing whether physical impacts of climatic change in high elevation areas are becoming evident, and to discuss a range of monitoring strategies needed to observe and to understand the nature of any changes.

  1. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens;

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  2. Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

    2016-03-01

    Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

  3. Present-day regional climate simulation over Malaysia and western Maritime Continent region using PRECIS forced with ERA40 reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwan, Meng Sei; Tangang, Fredolin T.; Juneng, Liew

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the performance of the regional climate model, PRECIS, in reproducing the historical seasonal mean climatology over the Malaysian region. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal climate pattern of the temperature, precipitation and large-scale circulation was reasonably good. The biases of temperature are less than 2 °C in general, while the seasonal cycles match the observed pattern despite some differences in certain regions. However, the biases for precipitation were greater, particularly over the mountainous areas. These biases could be associated with the deficiencies of the model physics, related to the misrepresentation of the land-surface interaction and convective scheme. Furthermore, the model fails to simulate the mean sea-level pressure over the interior part of Borneo with a significant low-pressure centre. A higher magnitude of the moisture convergence and divergence simulated by the model also contributed to the biases of precipitation over Malaysia.

  4. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  5. Climate Services for Adaptation Support: Sectors, Regions, and Product Lines (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, T.; Shea, E. E.

    2009-12-01

    Environmental information for decision support must be user-focused, accurate, and actionable. As the deleterious impacts of a non-stationary climate system manifest themselves through loss of civil infrastructure, cultural, and natural resources, NOAA and other science agencies are restructuring their approach to decision support, moving from a climate perspectives-centric model to one that offers more nimble, granular, and timely product lines supporting a breadth of sectoral- and regionally-focused decisions. This talk outlines NOAA’s efforts to this end, including its framing of sectors and regions, its development of emerging product lines, and its reliance on technological advances to better disseminate information. Through its climate services efforts, NOAA’s climate data resources can be leveraged to support sound adaptation decision making for societal infrastructure development and in the stewardship of marine, ocean, coastal, and terrestrial natural resources.

  6. Potential climatic effects of light absorbing particles over the Third Pole regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Zhenming; Kang, Shichang

    2016-04-01

    Light absorbing particles (LAPs) have important impact on regional climate over the Third Pole regions. Carbonaceous and mineral aerosols, which are considered as the anthropogenic and natural sources respectively, can absorb and scatter incident solar radiation in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, LAPs deposition in snow/ice can also change the surface albedo, resulting in perturbations in the surface radiation balance. However, most studies that have made quantitative assessments of the climatic effect of LAPs over the Third Pole regions did not consider the impact of dust on snow/ice at the surface. In this study, a regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (Regional Climate Model version 4.3.4) coupled with an aerosol-snow/ice feedback module was used to investigate the emission, distribution, and deposition of carbonaceous and dust aerosols. The study was focused on the two issues: 1) the evaluation of model performance; 2) the assessment of climatic effects induced by carbonaceous and mineral dust aerosols, respectively.

  7. Exploring Climate Science with WV Educators: A Regional Model for Teacher Professional Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruberg, L. F.; Calinger, M.

    2014-12-01

    The National Research Council Framework for K-12 Science Literacy reports that children reared in rural agricultural communities, who experience regular interactions with plants and animals, develop more sophisticated understanding of ecology and biological systems than do urban and suburban children of the same age. West Virginia (WV) is a rural state. The majority of its residents live in communities of fewer than 2,500 people. Based on the features of the population being served and their unique strengths, this presentation focuses on a regional model for teacher professional development that addresses agricultural and energy vulnerabilities and adaptations to climate change in WV. The professional development model outlined shows how to guide teachers to use a problem-based learning approach to introduce climate data and analysis techniques within a scenario context that is locally meaningful. This strategy engages student interest by focusing on regional and community concerns. Climate science standards are emphasized in the Next Generation Science Standards, but WV has not provided its teachers with appropriate instructional resources to meet those standards. The authors addressed this need by offering a series of climate science education workshops followed by online webinars offered to WV science educators free of charge with funding by the West Virginia Space Grant Consortium. The authors report on findings from this series of professional development workshops conducted in partnership with the West Virginia Science Teachers Association. The goal was to enhance grades 5-12 teaching and learning about climate change through problem-based learning. Prior to offering the climate workshops, all WV science educators were asked to complete a short questionnaire. As Figure 1 shows, over 40% of the teacher respondents reported being confident in teaching climate science content. For comparison post workshops surveys measure teacher confidence in climate science

  8. A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earth's continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction. (letter)

  9. Regional characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/summer climate modes in Chinese mainland

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI XiaoHui; XU XiangDe

    2007-01-01

    Tomé and Miranda's climate trend turning discriminatory model is used to identify the spatial-temporal characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/summer climate modes at stations and in eight sub-areas over Chinese mainland based on the 1961-2000 observations. It is found that the stations with close occurrence years of the interdecadal trend turning (ITT) and coincident trends after the ITT exhibit a zonal distribution. A view is accordingly proposed that the interdecadal turnings of climate modes in China have remarkably regional structures. The research results show that after the early 1980s, winter climate over Chinese mainland overall trends towards a "warm-wet" mode, while summer climate had an abrupt change into "warm wet" mode in the late 1980s, suggesting that the time of the "warm-wet" mode turning for winter climate is earlier than that for summer climate. The regional characteristics and test results of the ITTs in eight sub-areas suggest that winter climate exhibits a distinctive "warm-dry" trend in North China after the late 1970s, and a slight "warm-dry" trend in Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China after the late 1980s. A "warm-wet" trend appears in the rest four sub-areas (the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Valley, briefly Jianghuai, the east of the Tibetan plateau, and the east and west of Northwest China) after the early 1980s. The summer climate trends towards a "warm-dry" mode in Northeast China, North China and the east of Northwest China after the late 1980s, but a "warm-wet" mode appears in Southwest China and the east of the Tibetan plateau after the middle 1970s, as well as in Jianghuai and the west of Northwest China after the early 1980s. Specially, summer climate in South China started a "cold-wet" trend in 1984.

  10. Building America Best Practices Series - High-Performance Home Technologies: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baechler, Michael C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Gilbride, Theresa L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cole, Pam C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hefty, Marye G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ruiz, Kathi [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-11-01

    This report identifies the climate region of each county in the United States. The report is intended as an aid in helping builders to identify the appropriate climate designation for the counties in which they are building.

  11. Tectonic and climatic evolution of the Arabian Sea region: an introduction

    OpenAIRE

    Clift, Peter D.; Kroon, Dirk; Gaedicke, Christoph; Craig, Jonathan

    2002-01-01

    ExtractThe evolution of the global oceanic and atmospheric circulation systems has been affected by several forcing processes, with orbital variations being dominant on shorter geological time scales. Over longer periods of time (> 10 Ma) the tectonic evolution of the solid Earth has been recognized as the major control on the development of the global climate system. Tectonic activity acts in one of two different ways to influence regional and global climate. The earliest solid Earth-clim...

  12. Technologies to Improve the Performance of A/C Systems in Hot Climate Regions

    OpenAIRE

    Bahman, Ammar M.; Eckhard A. Groll; Horton, W. Travis; Braun, James E.

    2014-01-01

    Air conditioning contributes significantly to building energy consumption in hot climate regions. In addition to greater cooling requirements in hot climates, cooling equipment efficiency decreases with increasing outdoor temperature. Therefore, it is advantageous to develop improved technologies that can achieve higher efficiency at high ambient conditions. In this paper, two novel compression technologies are investigated for application in high ambient temperature air conditioning via simu...

  13. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

    OpenAIRE

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-01-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Cli...

  14. Improvement of surface albedo parameterization within a regional climate model (RegCM3)

    OpenAIRE

    Bao, Y; Lü, S.

    2009-01-01

    A parameterization for calculating surface albedo of Solar Zenith Angel (SZA) dependence with coefficient for each vegetation type determined on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) reformed by the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) is incorporated within the latest Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), and evaluated with a high resolution one-way nesting simulation in China using the Climate ...

  15. 500 years of regional forest growth variability and links to climatic extreme events in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Babst, Flurin; Carrer, Marco; Poulter, Benjamin; Urbinati, Carlo; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Frank, David

    2012-01-01

    Climatic extreme events strongly affect forest growth and thus significantly influence the inter-annual terrestrial carbon balance. As we are facing an increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes, extensive empirical archives are required to assess continental scale impacts of temperature and precipitation anomalies. Here we divide a tree-ring network of approximately 1000 sites into fifteen groups of similar high-frequency growth variability to reconstruct regional positive and n...

  16. A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions

    OpenAIRE

    M. H. J. van Huijgevoort; Hazenberg, P.; H. A. J. van Lanen; R. Uijlenhoet

    2012-01-01

    The identification of hydrological drought at global scale has received considerable attention during the last decade. However, climate-induced variation in runoff across the world makes such analyses rather complicated. This especially holds for the drier regions of the world (both cold and warm), where for a considerable period of time, zero runoff can be observed. In the current paper, we present a method that enables to identify drought at global scale across climate regimes in a consiste...

  17. New Levels of Climate Adaptation Policy: Analyzing the Institutional Interplay in the Baltic Sea Region

    OpenAIRE

    Sirkku Juhola; Erik Glaas

    2013-01-01

    International policy development and expected climate change impacts such as flooding, landslides, and the extinction of sensitive species have forced countries around the Baltic Sea to begin working on national climate adaptation policies. Simultaneously, the EU is building both a central and a macro-regional Baltic Sea-wide adaptation strategy to support national policy developments. However, it yet remains unclear how these EU strategies will complement each other or national policies. Thi...

  18. Impacts of climate change on erosion in humid and dry Mediterranean regions of Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Nunes, João Pedro; Santos, Juliana Marisa; Sampaio, Elsa; Corte-Real, João; Moreira, Madalena; Jacinto, Rita; Bernard-Jannin, Léonard

    2014-01-01

    Soils in the Mediterranean regions of Europe are often vulnerable to soil erosion, due to a combination of annual plant cover cycles, centuries of human use, the concentration of rainstorms in a short period of the year, and other factors. Climate change could bring about a warmer and drier climate, limiting vegetation growth while bringing heavier storms during winter. This could eventually lead to higher risks of soil losses and the consequential problems of land degradation and...

  19. Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

    2015-01-01

    Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual

  20. Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

    2015-01-01

    Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual

  1. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  2. Community Risk and Resilience to Climate Hazards and Extreme Events in the Turtle Region of Trinidad

    OpenAIRE

    HOLMES, TISHA

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation examines the socio-spatial impacts of climate-related hazards and extreme weather events and associated responses in the Turtle Region of Trinidad & Tobago. The Turtle Region supports a growing eco-tourism industry centered on excursions to remote pristine beaches, hiking trails, waterfalls, and the annual migration of female Leatherback turtles to lay their eggs on natal beaches. The Turtle Region also experiences rapid rates of coastal erosion and severe weather related ev...

  3. Managing water infrastructures in the Berlin-Brandenburg region between climate change, economic restructuring and commercialisation

    OpenAIRE

    Hüesker, Frank; Moss, Timothy,; Naumann, Matthias

    2012-01-01

    Global change is posing a major challenge to existing forms of natural resource use, socio-economic development and institutional regulation. Although trends such as climate change, socio-economic transformation and institutional change are global in their scope, they have very specific regional outcomes. Regionally distinct coping strategies are required which take into account both the diversity of regional impacts of global change and the local contexts of appropriate responses. This paper...

  4. A new generation of the regional climate model REMO: REMO non-hydrostatic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieck, Kevin; Raub, Thomas; Marien, Lennart; Buntemeyer, Lars; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The regional climate model REMO is well established and has proofed it's value in regional climate simulations for more than a decade. However, due to the hydrostatic formulation REMO is not able to produce useful regional climate information on scales smaller than ~10 km. The demand for higher resolution data especially in the climate service sector is evident. Often climate change information on urban district or even point level is needed. A previous development of a non-hydrostatic dynamical core for REMO utilizing ideas of Miller and Pearce (1974) and Janjic (2001) has been picked up and implemented into the latest hydrostatic REMO version. One of the advantages of the Janjic formulation is that hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic computations are well separated. This offers a straightforward implementation of the non-hydrostatic calculations into an existing hydrostatic model. Other advantages are the easy quantification of the error done by the hydrostatic approximation and the lower computational costs at lower resolutions by switching of the non-hydrostatic part. We will show results from climate simulations on the EURO-CORDEX domain with and without non-hydrostatic option.

  5. Downscaling Statistical Model Techniques for Climate Change Analysis Applied to the Amazon Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Mendes

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon is an area covered predominantly by dense tropical rainforest with relatively small inclusions of several other types of vegetation. In the last decades, scientific research has suggested a strong link between the health of the Amazon and the integrity of the global climate: tropical forests and woodlands (e.g., savannas exchange vast amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are thought to be important in controlling local and regional climates. Consider the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the role of the protected area in the conservation of biodiversity and state-of-art of downscaling model techniques based on ANN Calibrate and run a downscaling model technique based on the Artificial Neural Network (ANN that is applied to the Amazon region in order to obtain regional and local climate predicted data (e.g., precipitation. Considering the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the state-of-art of downscaling techniques for climate models, the shower of this work is presented as follows: the use of ANNs good similarity with the observation in the cities of Belém and Manaus, with correlations of approximately 88.9% and 91.3%, respectively, and spatial distribution, especially in the correction process, representing a good fit.

  6. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  7. Use of a Regional Climate Model to Diagnose Circulation and Surface Climate Controls of Wildfire in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, S. W.; Bartlein, P. J.; Alder, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    We explore monthly North American climate and wildfire relationships through joint analysis of a new wildfire data base and climate simulations that we conducted with the RegCM3 regional climate model. We derived the new data base, which covers 1986-2012, by screening and merging the US FPA-FOD, US NIFC and Canadian CNFDB data guided by an analysis that included the examination of "heavy-tailed" statistical distributions (Pareto and tapered Pareto) in order to maximize the number of combined records while minimizing potential irregularities and noise such as over- and under-reporting and spurious data. We associate area burned from lightning-set wildfires, as registered to the start date of the fires, with the simulated atmospheric circulation and the surface water and energy balances at 50 km over NA and at 15 km for 4 sub-regions of NA. Our 50-km results clearly associate the seasonal cycle and spatial distribution of wildfire in the US and Canada with the seasonal cycle of atmospheric circulation and surface climate, in particular to solar and long-wave radiation and latent and sensible heating. We also use the 50-km model output to diagnose the within-season temporal and spatial characteristics of wildfire (e.g., the Northern Rockies versus the Boreal forest) and the characteristics of individual fire years. Over the 15-km sub-regions, we use composite anomalies of the surface water and energy balances to differentiate the spatial and temporal controls of high- and low-fire years and to assess the role of interannual variability in the fire record

  8. The Role of Low-Level Jets in Regional Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Low Level Jets are ubiquitous features of the global climate system. These "rivers of air" in the lower atmosphere act as a scale transfer mechanism, bridging the larger scale climate variability and change to regionally focused impacts. During the boreal spring and summer, the North American low-level jet (NALLJ) transports copious amounts of momentum, heat, and moisture into central and eastern United States, with significant impacts on regional hydroclimate variability (drought and pluvial), extreme events (tornadic activity), ecology (jellyfish and bird migration), atmospheric constituent transport (ozone), and energy development (wind power). Given the interdisciplinary importance of the NALLJ, its mean state and variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales will be discussed in a simple framework to stimulate cross-disciplinary thought and discussion with regard to warm season regional climate variability and change.

  9. Western Regional Center of the National Institute for Climatic Change Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hungate, Bruce A. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)

    2013-05-02

    The major goal of this project was fostering, integrating, synthesizing, and disseminating experimental, observational, and modeling research on predicted climate change in the western region of the U.S. and the impacts of that change on the structure, productivity, and climatic interactions of the region's natural and managed ecological systems. This was accomplished through administering a competitive grants program developed in collaboration with the other four regional centers of the NICCR. The activities supported included efforts to synthesize research on climate change in the western U.S. through meta-analysis studies, model comparisons, and data synthesis workshops. Results from this work were disseminated to the scientific and public media. This project also supported the development of the NICCR web site, hosted at NAU, which was used as the means to accept pre-proposal and proposal submissions for each funding cycle, and served as a clearing house for public outreach for results from NICCR-funded research

  10. GIS-based climatic regionalization of ratoon rice in Chongqing area

    Science.gov (United States)

    gao, Yanghua; Chen, Zhijun; Yang, Shiqi; Tang, Yunhui; Yuan, Deshen

    2010-07-01

    According to ratoon rice growth and yield formation with meteorological conditions, the paper analyzed the main climatic factors which influence the growth of ratoon rice, and determined the accumulated temperature and sunshine duration of the key period as the index of climatic regionalization. The fine spatial distribution of ratoon rice regionalization was made based on the spatial distribution of indexes which was made based on the GIS and 1:250,000 DEM. And then the paper reviewed the characteristics of various types of regional climate resources separately and put forward proposals in allusion to the cultivation based on the coordinated development between the ratoon rice and other crops in late autumn, the development of annual planting plan and cultivation methods.

  11. Future changes in Australian midlatitude cyclones using a regional climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepler, Acacia; Di Luca, Alejandro; Ji, Fei; Alexander, Lisa; Evans, Jason; Sherwood, Steven

    2016-04-01

    Midlatitude cyclones cause the majority of strong winds, high seas and coastal flooding along the east coast of Australia, and are also an important contributor to annual rainfall variability and water security. For this reason, there is substantial interest in how the frequency or behaviour of these cyclones may change during the 21st century. A recent regional downscaling project in southeastern Australia (NARCliM) provides an ensemble of climate model projections at both 50km and 10km resolutions for the 20-year periods 1990-2009 and 2060-2079. This allows us to analyse and assess the projections of midlatitude cyclones in significantly more detail than previous studies. NARCliM is an ensemble of 4 CMIP3 Global Climate Models (GCMs) which have been downscaled using three different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with both GCMs and regional downscaling parameters chosen to optimise both model skill and independence of errors during the current climate. In addition to the ensemble of regional climate projections, we also employ three different cyclone identification and tracking methods which have been recently evaluated in the study region. This provides the most robust assessment to date of future changes in cyclone activity in this region, drawing attention to both areas of consistency and seasons and locations of high inter-model or inter-method uncertainty. The high resolution regional models also allow the first assessment of future changes in the frequency of heavy rainfall and strong winds associated with these systems.

  12. Climate instability in the Yili region,Xinjiang during the last glaciation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The climate is influenced by westerlies year in year out and the aeolian loess is widespread in the Yili region,the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Through the study of the loess section with a thickness of 21.5 m,much useful information about climatic change in this region during the last glaciation was gotten. Grain size analysis of loess samples in the section showed that the climatic change in the Yili region was of instability during the last glaciation and similar to those of the North Atlantic Ocean and Greenland. In correspondence with the Heinrich events,the percentage of the size fraction of loess with grain size less than 10 mm decreased in cold stadials in the Yili region. This result suggests that the westerly wind be strengthened during the cold periods. Compared with the stadials,the content of the loess with grain size less than 10 mm was increased in interstadials,which indicated that the strength of the westerly wind was weakened. It is obvious that the climate was instable not only in the North Atlantic Ocean and polar regions,but also in other areas of Northern Hemisphere during the last glaciation.

  13. Environmental consequences of the climate change in tropical regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonima, L.

    2010-09-01

    The present study shows the first evidence of the global warming in the Colombian Caribbean region and more particularly in the Departamento de Córdoba. According to the results obtained for six selected meteorological stations of the mentioned Departamento, the analysis of the air temperature variation and the calculation of the water deficit for a time period of 30 years show an air temperature increase between 0.5 °C and 0.7 °C and the subsequent water déficit increment as a result of the great water evaporation of the different surfaces. The ENSO influence on the global warming will by also discussed.The global warming of this region, caused by uncontrollable forest deforestation and unsuitable agricultural and livestock activities, yields to environmental alterations, specially in vegetation cover and soil quality. Meteorological data, agrarian information and digital satellite images were used for analizing the environmental changes ocurred in the studied zone during the selected period of time. Besides the identification of the global warming and the quantification of the environmental deterioration of the zone of study (digital thematic maps), the results obtained can be considered as a contribution for establishing general criteria for the further adequate management of it.

  14. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  15. Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate models (GCMs) have become increasingly important for climate change science and provide the basis for most impact studies. Since impact models are highly sensitive to input climate data, GCM skill is crucial for getting better short-, medium- and long-term outlooks for agricultural production and food security. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 ensemble is likely to underpin the majority of climate impact assessments over the next few years. We assess 24 CMIP3 and 26 CMIP5 simulations of present climate against climate observations for five tropical regions, as well as regional improvements in model skill and, through literature review, the sensitivities of impact estimates to model error. Climatological means of seasonal mean temperatures depict mean errors between 1 and 18 ° C (2–130% with respect to mean), whereas seasonal precipitation and wet-day frequency depict larger errors, often offsetting observed means and variability beyond 100%. Simulated interannual climate variability in GCMs warrants particular attention, given that no single GCM matches observations in more than 30% of the areas for monthly precipitation and wet-day frequency, 50% for diurnal range and 70% for mean temperatures. We report improvements in mean climate skill of 5–15% for climatological mean temperatures, 3–5% for diurnal range and 1–2% in precipitation. At these improvement rates, we estimate that at least 5–30 years of CMIP work is required to improve regional temperature simulations and at least 30–50 years for precipitation simulations, for these to be directly input into impact models. We conclude with some recommendations for the use of CMIP5 in agricultural impact studies. (letter)

  16. Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Evans, J. P.

    2013-03-26

    Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

  17. Climate Variability is Influencing Agricultural Expansion and Output in a Key Agricultural Region of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spera, S. A.; Cohn, A.; VanWey, L.; Mustard, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last decade, the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso has both expanded and intensified its agricultural production to become the country's leading producer of soy, corn, and cotton. Yet this increase in agricultural production may be threatened due to changes in the region's climate stemming from deforestation caused by the agricultural expansion itself. The sensitivity of Mato Grosso's agriculture to climate variability has important implications for both climate change mitigation and climate adaptation. The vast bulk of research on the drivers of land use change in the region has examined economic and institutional drivers. Leveraging a novel remote sensing-derived dataset classifying shifts between single (cultivating one commercial crop per growing season) and double cropping (cultivating two commercial crops per growing season), we investigated the influence of climate variability on land use change during the period 2000 to 2011. Over the past decade, over half of Mato Grosso's farm area transitioned from single cropping to double cropping. We used regression analysis (controlling for space and time fixed effects) to show monthly rainfall, monthly temperature, agricultural commodity prices, and agricultural revenue to be the main drivers of adoption of double cropping and reversion to single cropping in the region. The influence of climate varies as much as five orders of magnitude across these outcomes, with both temperature and precipitation exhibiting the largest climatic influence on the transition from single to double cropping. Temperature consistently proves to be more important, explaining three times more of the variance than precipitation for each outcome. Months at the beginning of a given first crop season, the end of that first crop season, and middle of the subsequent second crop season are particularly important for planting decisions in the subsequent growing year. Fitting our land transition models using remote-sensing derived

  18. Predicting Climate Variability over the Indian Region Using Data Mining Strategies

    CERN Document Server

    Mallenahalli, Naresh Kumar

    2015-01-01

    In this paper an approach based on expectation maximization (EM) clustering to find the climate regions and a support vector machine to build a predictive model for each of these regions is proposed. To minimize the biases in the estimations a ten cross fold validation is adopted both for obtaining clusters and building the predictive models. The EM clustering could identify all the zones as per the Koppen classification over Indian region. The proposed strategy when employed for predicting temperature has resulted in an RMSE of $1.19$ in the Montane climate region and $0.89$ in the Humid Sub Tropical region as compared to $2.9$ and $0.95$ respectively predicted using k-means and linear regression method.

  19. Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosio, Alessandro; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

    2016-03-01

    In the framework of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX), an ensemble of climate change projections for Africa has been created by downscaling the simulations of four global climate models (GCMs) by means of the consortium for small-scale modeling (COSMO) regional climate model (RCM) (COSMO-CLM, hereafter, CCLM). Differences between the projected temperature and precipitation simulated by CCLM and the driving GCMs are analyzed and discussed. The projected increase of seasonal temperature is found to be relatively similar between GCMs and RCM, although large differences (more than 1 °C) exist locally. Differences are also found for extreme-event related quantities, such as the spread of the upper end of the maximum temperature probability distribution function and, in turn, the duration of heat waves. Larger uncertainties are found in the future precipitation changes; this is partly a consequence of the inter-model (GCMs) variability over some areas (e.g. Sahel). However, over other regions (e.g. Central Africa) the rainfall trends simulated by CCLM and the GCMs show opposite signs, with CCLM showing a significant reduction in precipitation at the end of the century. This uncertain and sometimes contrasting behaviour is further investigated by analyzing the different models' response to the land-atmosphere interaction and feedback. Given the large uncertainty associated with inter-model variability across GCMs and the reduced spread in the results when a single RCM is used for downscaling, we strongly emphasize the importance of exploiting fully the CORDEX-Africa multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble in order to assess the robustness of the climate change signal and, possibly, to identify and quantify the many sources of uncertainty that still remain.

  20. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  1. Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Regional Climate in the Northeast Megalopolis, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Yingzhi Lin; Anping Liu; Enjun Ma; Xing Li; Qingling Shi

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, evidences for influences of future urban expansion on regional climate in the Northeast megalopolis, USA, are presented. The model-based analysis shows that future urban expansion will significantly result in regional climate change. An average annual temperature increase ranging from 2°C to 5°C in new urban area and an average annual temperature decrease ranging from 0.40°C to 1.20°C in the south of the megalopolis will be caused by future urban expansion. The average annual p...

  2. Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for EU regions.

    OpenAIRE

    Salvador Barrios; Juan Nicolas Ibañez Rivas

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of climate change on EU tourism demand and to provide long-term (2100) scenarios to be used in the general equilibrium GEM-E3 to allow for potential interactions with the rest of the economy. The analysis is based on a bottom-up approach to derive country-wide figures making use of detailed regional data. Our study brings three novel aspects to the existing literature on recreational demand and climate. First, we derive region-spe...

  3. Regional climate network analysis from irregularly sampled satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Sykioti, Olga; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Balasis, George; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V.

    2016-04-01

    With the increasing availability of remote sensing data Earth System Analysis has taken a great step forward. This type of data, however, also harbors a variety of conceptual complications. First, depending on whether the satellite is orbiting on an ascending or descending path systematic biases are induced into the data, and both measurements cannot be evaluated simultaneously without an appropriate preprocessing. Second, remote sensing data are usually not produced with equidistant temporal sampling, but might contain huge gaps and irregular time steps. Third, the time period covered by the data is often too short to perform an appropriate seasonal detrending. Here, we propose a general framework to create homogeneous anomalized time series for a (multivariate) satellite data set by combining time series from ascending and descending satellite paths or even different missions using principal component and singular spectrum analysis. We then exemplarily apply our method to sea surface temperature data obtained from the SMOS satellite mission to study small-scale regional correlative patterns covering different parts of the Aegean Sea. To address the issue of irregular temporal sampling we utilize a kernel weighted version of the linear cross-correlation function to compute lagged correlations between all pairs of grid points in the data set. By binarizing the thus obtained matrices, we obtain a network representation of the system's similarity structure. Ultimately, we use tools from complex network theory to study regional interdependencies in the study area for different time lags of up to forty days. We find that the obtained networks represent well the observed average wind directions and speeds and display interaction structures between small regions in the Aegean Sea, which are in good agreement with earlier observations. In a second step, we extend the study area to the whole Mediterranean and Black Sea and investigate lagged interactions between these two

  4. Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that

  5. Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

  6. Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

  7. Winter climate variability and classification in the Bulgarian Mountainous Regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problems of snowiness and thermal conditions of winters are of high interest of investigations because of the more frequent droughts, occurred in the region. In the present study an attempt to reveal tendencies existing during the last 70 years of 20 th century in the course winter precipitation and,temperature as well as in some of the snow cover parameters. On the base of mean winter air temperature winters in the Bulgarian mountains were analyzed and classified. The main results of the study show that winter precipitation has decrease tendencies more significant in the highest parts of the mountains. On the other hand winter air temperature increases. It shows a relatively well-established maximum at the end of the studied period. In the Bulgarian mountains normal winters are about 35-40% of all winters. (Author)

  8. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  9. Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction

  10. CLIMATE CHANGES AND ADAPTATION POLICIES IN THE BALTIC AND THE ADRIATIC REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branko Bosnjakovic

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of differences and similarities of the current climate changes in the Baltic and Adriatic coastal regions and appropriate adaptation policies on national, regional and European level. All reparian countries are at different stages of developing and implementing national adaptation strategies. The proposal for an overall BSR wide Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan has been launched with the aim to recommend actions for climate change adaptation in the Baltic region. No similar agreement has been concluded yet on the protection of the semi-closed Adriatic Sea, the surface of which is about 1/2 of that of the Baltic Sea, and whose coastal region is home to about 1/4 of that of the Baltic Sea. The differences in the socio-economic characteristics and indicators may be partly responsible for the differring attitudes, actions and reporting concerning the adaptation to climate change, both between individual countries, as well as between the two regions as a whole

  11. Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.

  12. Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Sorghum Yield in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, G.; Anandhi, A.; Prasad, P.; Staggenborg, S. A.; Gowda, P. H.; Rice, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    The Ogallala aquifer region consists of 232 counties spread over 8 states of United States is facing declining water levels and deteriorating water quality which in turn affects the crop production in these counties. Coupled with the water stress, the changing climatic conditions also has adverse effects on crop production. The objectives of this study was to generate the future scenarios of grain sorghum production in the Ogallala region for plausible future climates. Three RCM's participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), used in this study are Canadian RCM (CRCM), Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) and the Hadley Regional Model (HRM3). The RCMs were nested within the AOGCMs for the current period 1971-2000 and for the future period 2041-2070 for A2 emission scenario. Grain sorghum yield were simulated across the study region using the CERES-Sorghum model program available in the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop simulation model suite. Daily data on rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature generated from the RCM were used as meteorological inputs in the current analysis. Grain sorghum hybrid 'Pioneer 8333' planting date and density were set at 5 June and 160,000 plants per hectare respectively. Simulation results show a decrease in the yield of grain sorghum for A2 emission scenario without considering effects of elevated carbon dioxide and changes in genetics. Results of the study provide critical information needed to help decision/policy makers to device long-term strategies to cope with impacts of climate change and variability on water use and crop production for the Ogallala aquifer region.

  13. Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

    2016-10-01

    Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

  14. Changes in Cyclone Pattern with Climate Change Perspective in the Coastal Regions of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SM Masud Rana

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has started to alter the way how climatic events take place on the earth. Occurrence and distribution of extreme climatic events are now more frequent and undoubtedly Bangladesh is experiencing the effects of climate change among which the extreme events manifest in a more evident and devastating way. This paper aims at eliciting evidences of the effect of climate change on the characteristics of cyclones of this region.   Recent histories of cyclones that formed at the Bay of Bengal and made landfall on the coasts of Bangladesh, ranging from 1795 to 2009, were studied. Frequency of the cyclones has shown an increasing trend along with their intensity. Frequency of weaker cyclones is decreasing and although intensity of the weaker storm is rising, they are rising at a greater rate for the stronger storms and hence there will be large differences among the intensity of the future cyclones. Storm surges show a positive correlation with the intensity of the storms hence greater storm surges can be expected in the future. Storms tracks seem to remain unaltered for a long tract of time. These analyses implicate the necessity to decelerate climate change and also increase awareness among the highly dense population of the coastal regions of the developing countries to reduce damages due to such extreme events.

  15. Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future

  16. The Sahel Region of West Africa: Examples of Climate Analyses Motivated By Drought Management Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiaye, O.; Ward, M. N.; Siebert, A. B.

    2011-12-01

    The Sahel is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world. This paper focuses on climate sources of drought, and some new analyses mostly driven by users needing climate information to help in drought management strategies. The Sahel region of West Africa is a transition zone between equatorial climate and vegetation to the south, and desert to the north. The climatology of the region is dominated by dry conditions for most of the year, with a single peak in rainfall during boreal summer. The seasonal rainfall total contains both interannual variability and substantial decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV). This brings climate analysis and drought management challenges across this range of timescales. The decline in rainfall from the wet decades of the 1950s and 60s to the dry decades of the 1970s and 80s has been well documented. In recent years, a moderate recovery has emerged, with seasonal totals in the period 1994-2010 significantly higher than the average rainfall 1970-1993. These MDV rainfall fluctuations have expression in large-scale sea-surface temperature fluctuations in all ocean basins, placing the changes in drought frequency within broader ocean-atmosphere climate fluctuation. We have evaluated the changing character of low seasonal rainfall total event frequencies in the Sahel region 1950-2010, highlighting the role of changes in the mean, variance and distribution shape of seasonal rainfall totals as the climate has shifted through the three observed phases. We also consider the extent to which updating climate normals in real-time can damp the bias in expected event frequency, an important issue for the feasibility of index insurance as a drought management tool in the presence of a changing climate. On the interannual timescale, a key factor long discussed for agriculture is the character of rainfall onset. An extended dry spell often occurs early in the rainy season before the crop is fully established, and this often leads to crop

  17. Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Nadine; NöTzli, Jeannette; Hauck, Christian; Gruber, Stephan; Hoelzle, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried

    2007-06-01

    Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. This study assesses a possible range of changes in the GST (ΔGST) in complex mountain topography. To account for uncertainties associated with RCM output, a set of 12 different scenario climate time series (including 10 RCM-based and 2 incremental scenarios) was applied to the topography and energy balance (TEBAL) model to simulate average ΔGST for 36 different topographic situations. Variability of the simulated ΔGST is related primarily to the emission scenarios, the RCM, and the approach used to apply RCM results to the impact model. In terms of topography, significant influence on GST simulation was shown by aspect because it modifies the received amount of solar radiation at the surface. North faces showed higher sensitivity to the applied climate scenarios, while uncertainties are higher for south faces. On the basis of the results of this study, use of RCM-based scenarios is recommended for mountain permafrost impact studies, as opposed to incremental scenarios.

  18. Climatic Control on Forests and Tree Species Distribution in the Forest Region of Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    North-east (NE) China covers considerable climatic gradients and all major forests types of NE Asia. In the present study, 10 major forest types across the forest region of NE China were sampled to investigate forest distribution in relation to climate. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that growing season precipitation and energy availability were primary climatic factors for the overall forest pattern of NE China, accounting for 66% of the explanatory power of CCA. Conversely, annual precipitation and winter coldness had minor effects. Generalized additive models revealed that tree species responded to climatic gradients differently and showed three types of response curve: (i) monotonous decline; (ii) monotonous increase; and (iii) a unimodal pattern. Furthermore, tree species showed remarkable differences in limiting climatic factors for their distribution. The power of climate in explaining species distribution declined significantly with decreasing species dominance, suggesting that the distribution of dominant species was primarily controlled by climate, whereas that of subordinate species was more affected by competition from other species.

  19. Predictability of Regional Climate: A Bayesian Approach to Analysing a WRF Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruyere, C. L.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Paimazumder, D.

    2013-12-01

    This study investigates aspects of climate predictability with a focus on climatic variables and different characteristics of extremes over nine North American climatic regions and two selected Atlantic sectors. An ensemble of state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations is used for the analysis. The ensemble is comprised of a combination of various physics schemes, initial conditions, domain sizes, boundary conditions and breeding techniques. The main objectives of this research are: 1) to increase our understanding of the ability of WRF to capture regional climate information - both at the individual and collective ensemble members, 2) to investigate the role of different members and their synergy in reproducing regional climate 3) to estimate the associated uncertainty. In this study, we propose a Bayesian framework to study the predictability of extremes and associated uncertainties in order to provide a wealth of knowledge about WRF reliability and provide further clarity and understanding of the sensitivities and optimal combinations. The choice of the Bayesian model, as opposed to standard methods, is made because: a) this method has a mean square error that is less than standard statistics, which makes it a more robust method; b) it allows for the use of small sample sizes, which are typical in high-resolution modeling; c) it provides a probabilistic view of uncertainty, which is useful when making decisions concerning ensemble members.

  20. A Regional Response to Climate Information Needs during the 1993 Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Changnon, Stanley A.; Hollinger, Steven E.; Reinke, Beth C.; Wendland, Wayne M.; Angel, James R.

    1995-12-01

    Effective responses by government agencies, businesses, and private industry to climate disasters such as the disastrous Mississippi River flood of 1993 hinge on the regional availability of diverse up-to-date weather, climate, and water information. In addition to the obvious need for accurate forecasts and warnings of severe weather and floods, other types of meteorologically based information can contribute to effective responses. Some examples of information requested during and after the 1993 flood include 1) hydroclimatic assessments of the magnitude of the event, 2) agricultural assessments of the impacts of heavy rains and flooding on corn and soybean production, and 3) probabilistic outlooks of the recurrence of flooding based on soil moisture conditions. Quick responses to these climate information needs necessitate 1) a real-time climate monitoring system, 2) physical models to assess effects and impacts, and 3) scientific expertise to address complex issues.

  1. Impact of Climate Change on Urban Agglomerations in China's Coastal Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong Suocheng; Tao Shu; YangWangzhou; Li Fei; LiShuangcheng; Li Yu; Liu Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and urbanization issues are the two key factors that make humans liable to be affected by disasters, which are overlapped in urban agglomeration. The five big urban agglom- erations of China with strong economic power are the important engines for national economic and social development. However, being in the sea-land mutual interaction belts with a vast hazard- bearing body, they are affected by sea-land compound disasters, and are liable to suffer heavy disaster losses with climate change. It is suggested that government departments concerned should fully recognize the impact of climate change on coastal urban ag- glomerations, propose strategies as soon as possible, and integrate the impact of climate change and adaptation countermeasures into the various kinds of social-economic development plans for coastal urban regions.

  2. Meticulous Regionalization of Climate Suitability about Spring Potato Planting in Western Guizhou Based on GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHI; Zai-xiang; MO; Jian-guo; KANG; Xue-liang; GU; Xiao-ping; XIAO; Jun

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] The study aimed to carry out the regionalization of climate suitability about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou on the basis of GIS technology. [Method] Based on the climatic data of 15 meteorological stations in Western Guizhou during the growing period of spring potato from March to August in 1978-2010, the regionalization indicators of climate suitability about spring potato planting were determined according to the correlation between climatic factors and meteorological yield of spring potato. Afterwards, on the basis of climitic data and corresponding basic geographical information like longitude, latitude, altitude, slope and aspect, the spatial analysis models of division indicators about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou were established by using GIS spatial overlay analysis and used to carry out the township-level regionalization of climate suitability about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou with 100 m×100 m grids. [Result] Based on the relationship between meteorological yield of spring potato and climatic factors in Western Guizhou from 1978 to 2010, eight climatic division indicators, including altitude, average temperature,10 ℃ active accumulated temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in the growth stage, average temperature in July, average temperature difference between day and night from July to August, and precipitation from May to July, were chosen for spring potato planting, and each indicator had three levels, namely the most suitable, suitable and sub-suitable. Meanwhile, Western Guizhou was grouped into three areas according to these indicators, including the most suitable area, suitable area and sub-suitable area, and their area accounted for 52%, 45% and 3% of total area of the whole province respectively. [Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the production layout and species selection of spring potato in Western Guizhou.

  3. Meticulous Regionalization of Climate Suitability about Spring Potato Planting in Western Guizhou Based on GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHI; Zai-xiang; MO; Jian-guo; KANG; Xue-liang; GU; Xiao-ping; XIAO; Jun

    2012-01-01

    [Objective] The study aimed to carry out the regionalization of climate suitability about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou on the basis of GIS technology. [Method] Based on the climatic data of 15 meteorological stations in Western Guizhou during the growing period of spring potato from March to August in 1978-2010, the regionalization indicators of climate suitability about spring potato planting were determined according to the correlation between climatic factors and meteorological yield of spring potato. Afterwards, on the basis of climitic data and corresponding basic geographical information like longitude, latitude, altitude, slope and aspect, the spatial analysis models of division indicators about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou were established by using GIS spatial overlay analysis and used to carry out the township-level regionalization of climate suitability about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou with 100 m×100 m grids. [Result] Based on the relationship between meteorological yield of spring potato and climatic factors in Western Guizhou from 1978 to 2010, eight climatic division indicators, including altitude, average temperature,>10 ℃ active accumulated temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in the growth stage, average temperature in July, average temperature difference between day and night from July to August, and precipitation from May to July, were chosen for spring potato planting, and each indicator had three levels, namely the most suitable, suitable and sub-suitable. Meanwhile, Western Guizhou was grouped into three areas according to these indicators, including the most suitable area, suitable area and sub-suitable area, and their area accounted for 52%, 45% and 3% of total area of the whole province respectively. [Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the production layout and species selection of spring potato in Western Guizhou.

  4. FFT analysis on NDVI annual cycle and climatic regionality in Northeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negrón Juárez, Robinson I.; Liu, William T.

    2001-11-01

    By considering that the climate of Northeast Brazil (NEB) has distinct wet and dry seasons, the mixed radix fast Fourier transform (mrFFT) algorithm, developed at the National Aerospace Centre of the Netherlands, was applied to a monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from July 1981 to June 1993, to generate phase, amplitude and mean NDVI data using a 1-year frequency in order to improve the analysis of its spatial variation.The NDVI mean values varied from >0.7, which occurred in northwest and southeast regions, to 0.25 in the northeast region. By using spatial variations of phase, amplitude and mean NDVI values, 15 climate types were delineated for the NEB.The spatial distribution of climate types in the NEB delineated by the NDVI FFT analysis agreed mostly with the climatic types presented by Hargreaves (Precipitation dependability and potentials for agricultural production in Northeast Brazil. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária-EMBRAPA, Brazil, 1974), except regions with higher spatial variability and limited surface meteorological data. Among the three components: phase, amplitude and mean NDVI, the phase image, informing the initiation and duration of rainy season, was the most important component for climate-type delineation. Nevertheless, while the extreme values of amplitude, inferring a high wet-dry rainfall regime contrast, and mean NDVI, inferring annual rainfall total, occurred in the same phase area, amplitude and mean NDVI images were used for further delineation. It is concluded that the application of the mrFFT algorithm to NDVI time series analysis is an effective method for identifying vegetation phenology and hence to delineate the transit spatial change of climate types. Our further study is to construct and validate the alternative El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought onset model for each of the 15 climate types delineated for the NEB.

  5. Regional climate model experiments to investigate the Asian monsoon in the Late Miocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tang

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The Late Miocene (11.6–5.3 Ma is a crucial period in the history of the Asian monsoon. Significant changes in the Asian climate regime have been documented for this period, which saw the formation of the modern Asian monsoon system. However, the spatiotemporal structure of these changes is still ambiguous, and the associated mechanisms are debated. Here, we present a simulation of the average state of the Asian monsoon climate for the Tortonian (11–7 Ma using the regional climate model CCLM3.2. We employ relatively high spatial resolution (1° × 1° and adapt the physical boundary conditions such as topography, land-sea distribution and vegetation in the regional model to represent the Late Miocene. As climatological forcing, the output of a Tortonian run with a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is used. Our regional Tortonian run shows a stronger-than-present East Asian winter monsoon wind as a result of the enhanced mid-latitude westerly wind of our global forcing and the lowered present-day northern Tibetan Plateau in the regional model. The summer monsoon circulation is generally weakened in our regional Tortonian run compared to today. However, the changes of summer monsoon precipitation exhibit major regional differences. Precipitation decreases in northern China and northern India, but increases in southern China, the western coast and the southern tip of India. This can be attributed to the changes in both the regional topography (e.g. the lower northern Tibetan Plateau and the global climate conditions (e.g. the higher sea surface temperature. The spread of dry summer conditions over northern China and northern Pakistan in our Tortonian run further implies that the monsoonal climate may not have been fully established in these regions in the Tortonian. Compared with the global model, the high resolution regional model highlights the spatial differences of the Asian monsoon climate in the Tortonian, and better

  6. Estimation of regional mass anomalies from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Himalayan region

    OpenAIRE

    Agrawal, R.; Singh, S.K.; Rajawat, A. S.; Ajai

    2014-01-01

    Time-variable gravity changes are caused by a combination of postglacial rebound, redistribution of water and snow/ice on land and as well as in the ocean. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002, provides monthly average of the spherical harmonic co-efficient. These spherical harmonic co-efficient describe earth’s gravity field with a resolution of few hundred kilometers. Time-variability of gravity field represents the change in mass ...

  7. Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering of Spodoptera exigua Hübner in regions of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia-Lin Zheng

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Inferential models are usually used to evaluate the effect of winter warming on range expansion of insects. Generally, correlative approaches used to predict changes in the distributions of organisms are based on the assumption that climatic boundaries are fixed. Spodoptera exigua Htibner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae overwinters as larvae or pupae in China regions. To understand the climate change impacts on overwintering of this species in regions of China, CLIMEX and Arc-GIS models were used to predict possible changes of distribution based on temperature. The climate change projection clearly indicated that the northern boundary of overwintering for S. exigua will shift northward from current distribution. Thus, the ongoing winter warming is likely to increase the frequency of S. exigua outbreaks.

  8. Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiri, Oliver; Brooks, Stephen J.; Renssen, Hans; Bedford, Alan; Hazekamp, Marjolein; Ilyashuk, Boris; Jeffers, Elizabeth S.; Lang, Barbara; Kirilova, Emiliya; Kuiper, Saskia; Millet, Laurent; Samartin, Stéphanie; Toth, Monika; Verbruggen, Frederike; Watson, Jenny E.; van Asch, Nelleke; Lammertsma, Emmy; Amon, Leeli; Birks, Hilary H.; Birks, H. John B.; Mortensen, Morten F.; Hoek, Wim Z.; Magyari, Enikö; Sobrino, Castor Muñoz; Seppä, Heikki; Tinner, Willy; Tonkov, Spassimir; Veski, Siim; Lotter, André F.

    2014-01-01

    Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized paleoclimate datasets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based paleotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our paleotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe. PMID:25208610

  9. Climate trends in a non-traditional high quality wine producing region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludmila Bardin-Camparotto

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The global warming may put pressure over some world's highest quality wine producing regions. This fact indicates the need to evaluate the presence of climate change in non-traditional wine producing regions of the Globe. Therefore, the goals of this study were to detect trends in rainfall and air temperature series obtained from three locations of the eastern part of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (a non-traditional high quality wine producing region and to evaluate the effect of the detected climate trends on agrometeorological indices frequently used to indicate suitable areas for wine production. The trend analyses were applied to maximum and minimum air temperature series, rainfall series and to the following agrometeorological parameters: heliothermal index, cool night index and growing degree-days. These three indices were selected due to their previous use in studies that address the effect of regional climate conditions on the general wine style. The analyses took into account the grape phenological aspects for both summer and winter growing seasons. The results found in this study support the hypothesis of the presence of climate trends in the wine producing regions of the eastern part of the State of São Paulo-Brazil. These trends are mostly linked to changes in the minimum air temperature. The results also reveal a shortening in the duration of grapevines phenological phases and a change to warmer conditions during the ripening Months. These changes are consistent with the climate changes observed in other wine producing regions of the world and may negatively affect the wine production of the eastern part of the State of São Paulo.

  10. Implications of NARCCAP on the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change and an Integrated U.S. Water-Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Blanc, E.; Strzepek, K. M.; Monier, E.

    2012-12-01

    In order for regional, integrated impact and adaptation assessments to be regarded as risk-based approaches, they must encompass to the fullest extent possible, the range of regional and global climate-change uncertainties as well as consistent economic pathways that underlie them. As such, the computational burden on any probabilistic construction (i.e. frequency distribution) that quantify these uncertainties is substantial when considering the large ensembles required from multiple, regional climate models. Thus, hybrid or statistical methods that encapsulate salient trend signals from regional climate models yet avoid the exhaustive amount of explicit simulations but remain consistent with the socio-economic pathway under which it is forced, would be highly desirable. We therefore present a hybrid frequency distribution (HFD) approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved climate-change kernel (CCK) patterns from archived climate-model projections. The approach has been extended to the climate-model outputs of the North American Regional Climate Change Project (NARCCAP). Specifically, we compare the NARCCAP CCKs to those of CMIP3, CMIP5, as well as the corresponding climate models that force the NARCCAP models. Many of the NARCCAP CCKs retain the large-scale patterns of their climate-model counterparts. However, regional and seasonal exceptions are also seen and carry with them important important climate-impact consequences. We then assess the consequences of the NARCCAP HFDs to a U.S. water-impact, climate-change assessment performed by the Water Resource System (WRS) of the IGSM.

  11. Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

  12. A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Hazenberg, P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2012-01-01

    The identification of hydrological drought at global scale has received considerable attention during the last decade. However, climate-induced variation in runoff across the world makes such analyses rather complicated. This especially holds for the drier regions of the world (both cold and warm),

  13. Climate change collaboration among natural resource management agencies: lessons learned from two US regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemieux, Christopher J.; Thompson, Jessica; Slocombe, D. Scott; Schuster, Rudy

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that regional collaboration can facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts through integrated planning and management. In an attempt to understand the underlying institutional factors that either support or contest this assumption, this paper explores the institutional factors influencing adaptation to climate change at the regional scale, where multiple public land and natural resource management jurisdictions are involved. Insights from two mid-western US case studies reveal that several challenges to collaboration persist and prevent fully integrative multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning at a regional scale. We propose that some of these challenges, such as lack of adequate time, funding and communication channels, be reframed as opportunities to build interdependence, identify issue-linkages and collaboratively explore the nature and extent of organisational trade-offs with respect to regional climate change adaptation efforts. Such a reframing can better facilitate multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning and management of shared biophysical resources generally while simultaneously enhancing organisational capacity to mitigate negative effects and take advantage of potentially favourable future conditions in an era characterised by rapid climate change.

  14. Climatic Cycles and Gradients of the El Niño Core Region in North Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rütger Rollenbeck

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic processes in northern Peru are evaluated on surface observation independent of modelling studies. The region is characterized by regular oscillations, but episodic El Niño-events introduce strong disturbances. Conceptual models based on observations, remote sensing data, and output of regional climate models are compared with data from a new station network. The results show regular oscillations of all climate variables on the annual and daily time scale. The daily cycle is probably associated with thermotidal forcings, causing gravity waves to emanate from the Andes Cordillera. Main factors are the interaction of large scale pressure systems like the Southeast Pacific High and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ. Also, there are regional factors: an extended sea-breeze system, the barrier-effect of the Andes, additional energy input by elevated radiation absorption at the mountain slopes, local wind systems, and the variations of the sea surface temperature. At the coast, a low-level jet works as a thermodynamic energy sink, suppressing deep convection and supporting the aridity. Those patterns are found in most of the station data and the processes of this climate can generally be confirmed. The overturning of this stable system with the onset of El Niño-conditions is possibly caused by disruptions of the regional circulation.

  15. Climate change impacts on soil erosion in the Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quantifying changes in potential soil erosion under projections of changing climate is important for the sustainable management of land resources, especially for regions dominated by agricultural land use, as soil loss estimates will be helpful in identifying areas susceptible to erosion, targeting ...

  16. Aerosols: connection between regional climatic change and air quality (Iupac Technical Report)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slanina, J.; Zhang, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    yAerosols play an important role in all problems connected with air pollution, ranging from very local effects and human health problems to regional problems such as acid deposition and eutrophication up to continental and global questions such as stratospheric ozone loss and climatic change. In thi

  17. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  18. Updated cloud physics improve the modelled near surface climate of Antarctica of a regional atmospheric climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. van Wessem

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The physics package of the polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 has been updated from RACMO2.1 to RACMO2.3. The update constitutes, amongst others, the inclusion of a parameterization for cloud ice super-saturation, an improved turbulent and radiative flux scheme and a changed cloud scheme. In this study the effects of these changes on the modelled near-surface climate of Antarctica are presented. Significant biases remain, but overall RACMO2.3 better represents the near-surface climate in terms of the modelled surface energy balance, based on a comparison with > 750 months of data from nine automatic weather stations located in East Antarctica. Especially the representation of the sensible heat flux and net longwave radiative flux has improved with a decrease in biases of up to 40 %. These improvements are mainly caused by the inclusion of ice super-saturation, which has led to more moisture being transported onto the continent, resulting in more and optically thicker clouds and more downward longwave radiation. As a result, modelled surface temperatures have increased and the bias, when compared to 10 m snow temperatures from 64 ice core observations, has decreased from −2.3 K to −1.3 K. The weaker surface temperature inversion consequently improves the representation of the sensible heat flux, whereas wind speed remains unchanged.

  19. Climate information for the wind energy industry in the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Davis, Melanie; Schmidt, Peter; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    According to the World Wind Energy Association the total wind generation capacity worldwide has come close to cover 3% of the world's electricity demand in 2011. Thanks to the enormous resource potential and the relatively low costs of construction and maintenance of wind power plants, the wind energy sector will remain one of the most attractive renewable energy investment options. Studies reveal that climate variability and change pose a new challenge to the entire renewable energy sector, and in particular for wind energy. Stakeholders in the wind energy sector mainly use, if available, site-specific historical climate information to assess wind resources at a given project site. So far, this is the only source of information that investors (e.g., banks) are keen to accept for decisions concerning the financing of wind energy projects. However, one possible wind energy risk at the seasonal scale is the volatility of earnings from year to year investment. The most significant risk is therefore that not enough units of energy (or megawatt hours) can be generated from the project to capture energy sales to pay down debt in any given quarter or year. On the longer time scale the risk is that a project's energy yields fall short of their estimated levels, resulting in revenues that consistently come in below their projection, over the life of the project. The nature of the risk exposure determines considerable interest in wind scenarios, as a potential component of both the planning and operational phase of a renewable energy project. Fundamentally, by using climate projections, the assumption of stationary wind regimes can be compared to other scenarios where large scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns may affect local wind regimes. In the framework of CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project, climate experts are exploring the potential of seasonal to decadal climate forecast techniques (time-frame 2012-2040) and regional climate scenarios (time horizon 2040+) over the

  20. Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the

  1. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Status and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutowski, W. J.

    2009-12-01

    NARCCAP is a multi-institutional program that is investigating systematically the uncertainties in regional scale simulations of contemporary climate and projections of future climate. NARCCAP is supported by multiple federal agencies. NARCCAP is producing an ensemble of high-resolution climate-change scenarios by nesting multiple RCMs in reanalyses and multiple atmosphere-ocean GCM simulations of contemporary and future-scenario climates. The RCM domains cover the contiguous U.S., northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The simulation suite also includes time-slice, high resolution GCMs that use sea-surface temperatures from parent atmosphere-ocean GCMs. The baseline resolution of the RCMs and time-slice GCMs is 50 km. Simulations use three sources of boundary conditions: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP-II Reanalysis, GCMs simulating contemporary climate and GCMs using the A2 SRES emission scenario for the twenty-first century. Simulations cover 1979-2004 and 2038-2060, with the first 3 years discarded for spin-up. The resulting RCM and time-slice simulations offer opportunity for extensive analysis of RCM simulations as well as a basis for multiple high-resolution climate scenarios for climate change impacts assessments. Geophysical statisticians are developing measures of uncertainty from the ensemble. To enable very high-resolution simulations of specific regions, both RCM and high-resolution time-slice simulations are saving output needed for further downscaling. All output is publically available to the climate analysis and the climate impacts assessment community, through an archiving and data-distribution plan. Some initial results show that the models closely reproduce ENSO-related precipitation variations in coastal California, where the correlation between the simulated and observed monthly time series exceeds 0.94 for all models. The strong El Nino events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 are well reproduced for

  2. Complex Networks Reveal Persistent Global / Regional Structure and Predictive Information Content in Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhaeuser, K.; Chawla, N. V.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2010-12-01

    Recent articles have posited that the skills of climate model projections, particularly for variables and scales of interest to decision makers, may need to be significantly improved. Here we hypothesize that there is information content in variables that are projected more reliably, for example, sea surface temperatures, which is relevant for improving predictions of other variables at scales which may be more crucial, for example, regional land temperature and precipitation anomalies. While this hypothesis may be partially supported based on conceptual understanding, a key question to explore is whether the relevant information content can be meaningfully extracted from observations and model simulations. Here we use climate reconstructions from reanalysis datasets to examine the question in detail. Our tool of choice is complex networks, which have provided useful insights in the context of descriptive analysis and change detection for climate in the recent literature. We describe a new adaptation of complex networks based on computational approaches which provide additional descriptive insights at both global and regional scales, specifically sea surface variables, and provide a unified framework for data-guided predictive modeling, specifically for regional temperature and precipitation over land. Complex networks were constructed from historical data to study the properties of the global climate system and characterize behavior at the global scale. Clusters based on community detection, which leverage the network distance, were used to identify regional structures. Persistence and stability of these features over time were evaluated. Predictive information content of ocean indicators with respect to land climate was extracted using a suite of regression models and validated on held-out data. Our results suggest that the new adaptation of complex networks may be well-suited to provide a unified framework for exploring climate teleconnections or long

  3. Climate change, energy and sustainability: lessons from the Toronto-Niagara region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    (electricity and natural gas), and the demand for energy. Climate factors considered include changes in the mean, but more importantly variability in temperatures and changes in extreme weather events. This part of the discussion draws upon extensive research in the Toronto-Niagara Region, which has been supported through the Federal Interdepartmental Panel on Energy Research and Development (PERD). Emphasis is placed on identifying what aspects of current climate have had the greatest impact on the energy sector, and the adaptation options that will be necessary to reduce future vulnerability in face of inevitable climate variability and change. In section three, the emphasis shifts towards actions to reduce GHG plus related emissions, within the context of environmental and health benefits. The co-benefits of reducing GHG plus related emissions includes the implications for ecosystems and biodiversity, environmental health (managed (forestry) and unmanaged (agriculture) systems), social welfare and human health. This discussion is based on research conducted on co-benefits as part of the multi-stakeholder process to develop a national strategy on climate change. The paper concludes by providing a preliminary assessment of the various mitigation options currently being proposed to help reach emission targets set out in the Kyoto Protocol, as they apply to the Toronto-Niagara Region. The assessment, which will be undertaken in greater depth as part of Phases III through V of the PERD supported project, considers the vulnerability of an altered energy system to climate change impacts, and the potential co-benefits for environment and health This includes changes brought about by fossil fuel switching, the inter-provincial transmission of electricity, alternative technologies, and energy efficiency, amongst other mitigation actions. (author)

  4. Past and future evolution of Himalayan glaciers: a regional climate model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Kotlarski, Sven; Moseley, Christopher; Sieck, Kevin; Frey, Holger; Stoffel, Markus; Jacob, Daniela

    2013-04-01

    Over 800 million people depend on glacier melt water runoff throughout the Hindu-Kush and Himalaya (HKH) region. The region, also called as "Water tower of Asia", is the location of several major rivers basins, like Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus etc. Glaciers in the HKH region are the primary source of water for the perennial rivers. Previous studies have assessed glacier areas and volumes in the HKH region by remote sensing techniques and slope-dependent thickness estimations. We here present a study in which, for the first time a glacier parameterization scheme is dynamically coupled to a regional climate model and applied over the South Asian Himalayan mountain range. The glacier scheme interactively simulates the mass balance as well as changes of the areal extent of glaciers on a sub-grid scale. Various observational data sets, in particular a regional glacier inventory, have been compiled and were used to initialize glacier area and volume in the year 1989. A simulation for the period 1989-2008 using the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis as atmospheric boundary forcing was carried out. Preliminary results show a simulated decrease of glacier area of about 20% between 1989 and 2008. The spatial patterns of glacier area change show a remarkable decrease, but do show some regions of increase especially over the Karakoram (western Himalaya), a region for which available observations-based estimates also indicate a positive mass balance anomaly. The positive relation between altitude and mass balance is qualitatively reproduced by the model. The model is able to approximately represent the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for selected sub-region when compared to observed values but simulated ELA's seem to have a systematic negative bias which, in turn, suggests an overestimation of the mean regional mass balance. Our results indicate that observed glacier changes can be approximately reproduced within a regional climate model based on simplified concepts of glacier-climate

  5. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  6. Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Virginia H [ORNL; Hughes, M. Joseph [University of Tennessee (UT); Hayes, Daniel J [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel

  7. Regional impact of climate on Japanese encephalitis in areas located near the three gorges dam.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuntao Bai

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In this study, we aim to identify key climatic factors that are associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in areas located near the Three Gorges Dam, between 1997 and 2008. METHODS: We identified three geographical regions of Chongqing, based on their distance from the Three Gorges Dam. Collectively, the three regions consisted of 12 districts from which study information was collected. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models were run to identify key climatic factors of the transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus for both the whole study area and for each individual region; linear regression models were conducted to examine the fluctuation of climatic variables over time during the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2008, the incidence of Japanese encephalitis decreased throughout the entire city of Chongqing, with noticeable variations taking place in 2000, 2001 and 2006. The eastern region, which is closest to the Three Gorges Dam, suffered the highest incidence of Japanese encephalitis, while the western region experienced the lowest incidence. Linear regression models revealed that there were seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period. Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression models indicated a significant positive association between temperature (with a lag of 1 and 3 months and Japanese encephalitis incidence, and a significant negative association between rainfall (with a lag of 0 and 4 months and Japanese encephalitis incidence. CONCLUSION: The spatial and temporal trends of Japanese encephalitis incidence that occurred in the City of Chongqing were associated with temperature and rainfall. Seasonal fluctuations of climatic variables during this period were also observed. Additional studies that focus on long-term data collection are needed to validate the findings of this study and to further explore the effects of the Three Gorges Dam on Japanese

  8. First steps of the regional climate model MAR over the Euro-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholzen, Chloé; Fettweis, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of the Euro-CORDEX initiative, the Laboratory of Climatology of the University of Liège, Belgium, is currently using the regional climate model MAR (for "Modèle Atmosphérique Régional") to simulate the past, present and future climate over Europe. Simulations are being performed for both available resolutions over the Euro-CORDEX domain, namely 0.11 deg. (12.5 km) and 0.44 deg. (50 km). Historical and present-day runs (1979-2015) use the ERA-Interim and the NCEP/NCAR-v1 reanalyses as boundary conditions, whereas future projections are driven by two selected GCMs from the CMIP5 database: NorESM1-M and MIROC5. All CMIP5-GCMs were previously compared against ERA-Interim reanalysis data in terms of their ability to represent the current mean climate over Europe. The GCMs also underwent a statistical classification based on the calculation of skill-scores evaluating for instance 850 hPa temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height. Several settings and parameters were tested in order to calibrate the regional climate model MAR over the Euro-CORDEX domain. MAR was validated with respect to observations from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). The aim of this study is to assess the performance of MAR in comparing its results to other RCMs used within the Euro-CORDEX initiative.

  9. Coral oxygen isotope records of interdecadal climate variations in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagnato, Stefan; Linsley, Braddock K.; Howe, Stephen S.; Wellington, Gerard M.; Salinger, Jim

    2005-06-01

    The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), a region of high rainfall, is a major feature of subtropical Southern Hemisphere climate and contributes to and interacts with circulation features across the Pacific, yet its past temporal variability and forcing remain only partially understood. Here we compare coral oxygen isotopic (δ18O) series (spanning A.D. 1997-1780 and A.D. 2001-1776) from two genera of hermatypic corals in Fiji, located within the SPCZ, to examine the fidelity of these corals in recording climate change and SPCZ interdecadal dynamics. One of these coral records is a new 225-year subannually resolved δ18O series from the massive coral Diploastreaheliopora. Diploastrea's use in climate reconstructions is still relatively new, but this coral has shown encouragingly similar interannual variability to Porites, the coral genus most commonly used in Pacific paleoclimate studies. In Fiji we observe that interdecadal δ18O variance is also similar in these two coral genera, and Diploastrea contains a larger-amplitude interdecadal signal that more closely tracks instrumental-based indices of Pacific interdecadal climate change and the SPCZ than Porites. Both coral δ18O series record greater interdecadal variability from ˜1880 to 1950, which is consistent with the observations of Folland et al. (2002), who reported higher variability in SPCZ position before 1945. These observations indicate that Diploastrea will likely provide a significant new source of long-term climate information from the SPCZ region.

  10. Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions. Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO2 will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors

  11. Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Martín-Puertas

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

  12. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  13. Multiple satellite estimates of urban fractions and climate effects at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, G.; Xu, R.; He, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Regional climate is controlled by large scale forcing at lateral boundary and physical processes within the region. Landuse in East Asia has been changed substantially in the last three decades, featured with expansion of urban built-up at unprecedented scale and speed. The fast expansion of urban areas could contribute to local even regional climate change. However, current spatial datasets of urban fractions do not well represent extend and expansion of urban areas in the regions, and the best available satellite data and remote sensing techniques have not been well applied to serve regional modeling of urbanization impacts on near surface temperature and other climate variables. Better estimates of localized urban fractions and urban climate effects are badly needed. Here we use high and mid resolution satellite data to estimate urban fractions and to assess effects of urban heat islands at local and regional scales. With our fractional cover, data fusion, and differentiated threshold approaches, estimated urban extent was greater than previously reported in many global datasets. Many city clusters were merging into each other, with gradual blurring boundaries and disappearing of gaps among member cities. Cities and towns were more connected with roads and commercial corridors, while wildland and urban greens became more isolated as patches among built-up areas. Those new estimates are expected to effectively improve climate simulation at local and regional scales in East Asia. There were significant positive relations between urban fraction and urban heat island effects as demonstrated by VNIR and TIR data from multiple satellites. Stronger warming was detected at the meteorological stations that experienced greater urbanization, i.e., those with a higher urbanization rate. While the total urban area affects the absolute temperature values, the change of the urban area (urbanization rate) likely affects the temperature trend. Increases of approximately 10% in

  14. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

    2008-01-01

    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  15. Large-scale winds in the southern North Sea region: The wind part of the KNMI'14 climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Sterl, Andreas; Bakker, A.; Van den Brink, H.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Stepek, A; Wijnant, I; Winter, R.C. de

    2015-01-01

    The wind climate and its possible change in a warming world are important topics for many applications, among which are marine and coastal safety and wind energy generation. Therefore, wind is an important variable to investigate for climate change scenarios. In developing the wind part of the KNMI'14 climate change scenarios, output from several model categories have been analysed, ranging from global General Circulation Models via regional climate model (RCMs) to suitably re-sampled RCM out...

  16. A regional and global analysis of carbon dioxide physiological forcing and its impact on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Timothy; Doutriaux-Boucher, Marie; Boucher, Olivier; Forster, Piers M.

    2011-02-01

    An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has both a radiative (greenhouse) effect and a physiological effect on climate. The physiological effect forces climate as plant stomata do not open as wide under enhanced CO2 levels and this alters the surface energy balance by reducing the evapotranspiration flux to the atmosphere, a process referred to as `carbon dioxide physiological forcing'. Here the climate impact of the carbon dioxide physiological forcing is isolated using an ensemble of twelve 5-year experiments with the Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3LC fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model where atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are instantaneously quadrupled and thereafter held constant. Fast responses (within a few months) to carbon dioxide physiological forcing are analyzed at a global and regional scale. Results show a strong influence of the physiological forcing on the land surface energy budget, hydrological cycle and near surface climate. For example, global precipitation rate reduces by ~3% with significant decreases over most land-regions, mainly from reductions to convective rainfall. This fast hydrological response is still evident after 5 years of model integration. Decreased evapotranspiration over land also leads to land surface warming and a drying of near surface air, both of which lead to significant reductions in near surface relative humidity (~6%) and cloud fraction (~3%). Patterns of fast responses consistently show that results are largest in the Amazon and central African forest, and to a lesser extent in the boreal and temperate forest. Carbon dioxide physiological forcing could be a source of uncertainty in many model predicted quantities, such as climate sensitivity, transient climate response and the hydrological sensitivity. These results highlight the importance of including biological components of the Earth system in climate change studies.

  17. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  18. Global and Regional Climate Responses Solar Radiation Management: Results from a climateprediction.net Geoengineering Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, Katharine; Allen, Myles; Ingram, William; Keith, David; Granger Morgan, M.

    2010-05-01

    To date modeling studies suggest that, while significant hydrological anomalies could result from the artificial addition of reflecting aerosols in the stratosphere for the purpose of solar radiation management (SRM), even at the regional level such a geoengineered world would bear a much closer resemblance to a low CO2 world, than to an unmodified high CO2 world. These previous modeling studies have generally compared one or two SRM forcing scenarios to various business-as-usual controls. However, such approaches cannot provide much information about regional sensitivities to the levels of SRM that might realistically result. Should engaging in SRM every be seriously contemplated, such regional analysis of a range of realistic scenarios will be an essential input to any process of geopolitical decision-making. Here we present the results from a large-ensemble experiment that used the HadCM3L GCM, implemented through climateprediction.net. The analysis examines 135 globally-uniform stratospheric optical depth modification scenarios designed to stabilize global temperatures under SRES A1B. Scenarios were tested using ten-member subensembles which made small perturbations to initial conditions. All simulations use identical standard settings of model physics parameters and are initiated from historically-forced runs from 1920-2005. A total of 7,331 simulations of the years 2000-2080 were performed for this experiment using computing resources donated by the general public. Our analysis of regional temperature and precipitation anomalies, normalized to account for variability, shows that SRM compensations for anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing do generally return regional climates closer to their baseline climate states than the no-geoengineering, business-as-usual scenarios. However, we find that the magnitudes and sensitivities of regional responses to this type of activity, as modeled in HadCM3L, are highly variable. As the amount of SRM increases to compensate

  19. Climate change on the southern slope of Mt.Qomolangma (Everest) Region in Nepal since 1971

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QI Wei; ZHANG Yili; GAO Jungang; YANG Xuchao; LIU Linshan; Narendra R.KHANAL

    2013-01-01

    Based on monthly mean,maximum,and minimum air temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 10 meteorological stations on the southern slope of the Mt.Qomolangma region in Nepal between 1971 and 2009,the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic change in this region were analyzed using climatic linear trend,Sen's Slope Estimates and Mann-Kendall Test analysis methods.This paper focuses only on the southern slope and attempts to compare the results with those from the northern slope to clarify the characteristics and trends of climatic change in the Mt.Qomolangma region.The results showed that:(1) between 1971 and 2009,the annual mean temperature in the study area was 20.0℃,the rising rate of annual mean temperature was 0.25℃/10a,and the temperature increases were highly influenced by the maximum temperature in this region.On the other hand,the temperature increases on the northern slope of Mt.Qomolangma region were highly influenced by the minimum temperature.In 1974 and 1992,the temperature rose noticeably in February and September in the southern region when the increment passed 0.9℃.(2) Precipitation had an asymmetric distribution; between 1971 and 2009,the annual precipitation was 1729.01 mm.In this region,precipitation showed an increasing trend of 4.27mm/a,but this was not statistically significant.In addition,the increase in rainfall was mainly concentrated in the period from April to October,including the entire monsoon period (from June to September) when precipitation accounts for about 78.9% of the annual total.(3) The influence of altitude on climate warming was not clear in the southern region,whereas the trend of climate warming was obvious on the northern slope of Mt.Qomolangma.The annual mean precipitation in the southern region was much higher than that of the northern slope of the Mt.Qomolangma region.This shows the barrier effect of the Himalayas as a whole and Mt.Qomolangma in particular.

  20. On the Ability of the Regional Climate Model RIEMS to Simulate the Present Climate over Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    A continuous 10-year simulation in Asia for the period of 1 July 1988 to 31 December 1998 was conducted using the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS) with NCEP Reanalysis Ⅱ data as the driving fields. The model processes include surface physics state package (BATS le), a Holtslag explicit planetary boundary layer formulation, a Grell cumulus parameterization, and a modified radiation package (CCM3). Model-produced surface temperature and precipitation are compared with observations from 1001 meteorology stations distributed over Asia and with the 0.5°× 0.5° CRU gridded dataset. The analysis results show that: (1) RIEMS reproduces well the spatial pattern and the seasonal cycle of surface temperature and precipitation; (2) When regionally averaged, the seasonal mean temperature biases are within 1-2°C. For precipitation, the model tends to give better simulation in winter than in summer,and seasonal precipitation biases are mostly in the range of -12%-50%; (3) Spatial correlation coefficients between observed and simulated seasonal precipitation are higher in north of the Yangtze River than in the south and higher in winter than in summer; (4) RIEMS can well reproduce the spatial pattern of seasonal mean sea level pressure. In winter, the model-simulated Siberian high is stronger than the observed. In summer, the simulated subtropical high is shifted northwestwards; (5) The temporal evolution of the East Asia summer monsoon rain belt, with steady phases separated by more rapid transitions, is reproduced.

  1. Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Ying; LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; SHI Ying; XU Yinlong; ZHU Jinhong

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.

  2. Climatic controls on ecosystem resilience: Postfire regeneration in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Adam M.; Latimer, Andrew M.; Silander, John A.

    2015-01-01

    Conservation of biodiversity and natural resources in a changing climate requires understanding what controls ecosystem resilience to disturbance. This understanding is especially important in the fire-prone Mediterranean systems of the world. The fire frequency in these systems is sensitive to climate, and recent climate change has resulted in more frequent fires over the last few decades. However, the sensitivity of postfire recovery and biomass/fuel load accumulation to climate is less well understood than fire frequency despite its importance in driving the fire regime. In this study, we develop a hierarchical statistical framework to model postfire ecosystem recovery using satellite-derived observations of vegetation as a function of stand age, topography, and climate. In the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, a fire-prone biodiversity hotspot, we found strong postfire recovery gradients associated with climate resulting in faster recovery in regions with higher soil fertility, minimum July (winter) temperature, and mean January (summer) precipitation. Projections using an ensemble of 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that warmer winter temperatures in 2080–2100 will encourage faster postfire recovery across the region, which could further increase fire frequency due to faster fuel accumulation. However, some models project decreasing precipitation in the western CFR, which would slow recovery rates there, likely reducing fire frequency through lack of fuel and potentially driving local biome shifts from fynbos shrubland to nonburning semidesert vegetation. This simple yet powerful approach to making inferences from large, remotely sensed datasets has potential for wide application to modeling ecosystem resilience in disturbance-prone ecosystems globally. PMID:26150521

  3. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  4. A regional climate simulation study with land cover dynamics in Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hanjie; Ju, Yongmao; Li, Jianyun; Qiu, Guoyu

    2007-09-01

    A social-economic database based on the Governmental Statistical Annals, county-to-county investigation, literature verification, as well as the satellite identification was completed recently by the Remote Sensing and GIS Research Center, Beijing Normal University of China. The GIS Operational System handing this database not only provides details of the social, ecological, and economic information of the Northern China's 13 provinces since earlier 1950s, but also gives out predictions of these information by 2050 with different sceneries concerning the population increase, land use variation, governmental policy adjusting, administrating capability, science and technology development, National GDP increment, as well as world climate change. Aims at further regional climate simulation study, there is a special module nested in the GIS Operational System that interprets the county-level administrative data-units to a 60 × 60 km numerical mesh-grid suitable for climate model. By incorporating the land use dynamics provided by the above database, the new generation of the Regional Integrate Environment Modeling System (RIEMS2.0) was used for climate simulation study. The preliminary simulation studies show that: (1) the regional climate will be affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed; (2) the integrate impact of the LULC variation on climate (such as temperature, humidity and net long-wave radiation, precipitation) is not only limited to the Northern China where LULC varies, but also to the whole numerical domain where the LULC does not vary at all; (3) the ecological construction engineering implemented in Northern China including the Green-Great Wall construction engineering, the replace farming with forestry and grass movement, and the natural forest conservation etc has shown and will work positively on the eco-environment improvement, particularly shown as the increased

  5. CHANGES IN LAND COVER AND USE AFFECT THE LOCAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE IN PIRACICABA, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscila Pereira-Coltri

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Land use and changes in land cover play an important role in local and regional climatic conditions, especially in tropical regions. Piracicaba, a city in southeastern Brazil, has an economy that is based primarily on sugar cane cultivation. The seasonality of this crop means that there are marked annual fluctuations in land use and cover in this municipality. In this work, we investigated the seasonal variation in urban heat-islands and local climatic variations by using remote sensing data, geographic information system (GIS and atmospheric modeling. The urban heat-islands were analyzed by using Landsat 7 (Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ images for the sugar cane crop (January to March and non-crop (August to November periods, and these images were subsequently converted to land surface brightness temperature. The average temperature in the non-crop period was 3.5°C higher than in the crop period, which suggested that heat-island intensity may be linked to the seasonality of sugar cane cultivation. In order to examine the influence of urban areas on regional temperature changes and heat fluxes, numerical simulations were done with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS. Overall, the results obtained suggested that local and regional climatic dynamics were related to land use and changes in land cover.

  6. The Influence of Land Surface Changes on Regional Climate in Northwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Xingkui; ZHANG Feng; Jason K.LEVY

    2007-01-01

    Land surface changes effect the regional climate due to the complex coupling of land-atmosphere interactions. From 1995 to 2000, a decrease in the vegetation density and an increase in ground-level thermodynamic activity has been documented by multiple data sources in Northwest China, including meteorological, reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) satellite remote sensing data. As the ground-level thermodynamic activity increases, humid air from the surrounding regions converge toward desert (and semi-desert) regions, causing areas with high vegetation cover to become gradually more arid. Furthermore, land surface changes in Northwest China are responsible for a decrease in total cloud cover, a decline in the fraction of low and middle clouds, an increase in high cloud cover (due to thermodynamic activity) and other regional climatic adaptations. It is proposed that, beginning in 1995, these cloud cover changes contributed to a "greenhouse" effect, leading to the rapid air temperature increases and other regional climate impacts that have been observed over Northwest China.

  7. Do Regional Disparities in Research on Climate and Water Influence Adaptive Capacity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiparsky, M.; Brooks, C. [Energy and Resources Group, University of California, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3050 (United States); Gleick, P.H. [Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA, 94612 (United States)

    2006-08-15

    As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries.

  8. Plants adapted to warmer climate do not outperform regional plants during a natural heat wave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucharova, Anna; Durka, Walter; Hermann, Julia-Maria; Hölzel, Norbert; Michalski, Stefan; Kollmann, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver

    2016-06-01

    With ongoing climate change, many plant species may not be able to adapt rapidly enough, and some conservation experts are therefore considering to translocate warm-adapted ecotypes to mitigate effects of climate warming. Although this strategy, called assisted migration, is intuitively plausible, most of the support comes from models, whereas experimental evidence is so far scarce. Here we present data on multiple ecotypes of six grassland species, which we grew in four common gardens in Germany during a natural heat wave, with temperatures 1.4-2.0°C higher than the long-term means. In each garden we compared the performance of regional ecotypes with plants from a locality with long-term summer temperatures similar to what the plants experienced during the summer heat wave. We found no difference in performance between regional and warm-adapted plants in four of the six species. In two species, regional ecotypes even outperformed warm-adapted plants, despite elevated temperatures, which suggests that translocating warm-adapted ecotypes may not only lack the desired effect of increased performance but may even have negative consequences. Even if adaptation to climate plays a role, other factors involved in local adaptation, such as biotic interactions, may override it. Based on our results, we cannot advocate assisted migration as a universal tool to enhance the performance of local plant populations and communities during climate change. PMID:27516871

  9. A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Lopez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The current study focuses on the development of a regional framework to evaluate hydrologic and sediment sensitivity due to predicted future climate variability using developed archetypal watersheds. The developed archetypes are quasi-synthetic watersheds that integrate observed regional physiographic features (i.e., geomorphology, land cover patterns, etc. with synthetic derivation of basin and reach networks. Each of the three regional archetypes (urban, vegetated and mixed land covers simulates satisfactory hydrologic and sediment behavior compared to historical observations (flow and sediment prior to the climate sensitivity analysis. Climate scenarios considered increasing temperature estimated from the IPCC and precipitation variability based on historical observations and expectations. Archetypal watersheds are modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran model (EPA HSPF and relative changes to streamflow and sediment flux are evaluated. Results indicate that the variability and extent of vegetation play a key role in watershed sensitivity to predicted climate change. Temperature increase alone causes a decrease in annual flow and an increase in sediment flux within the vegetated archetypal watershed only, and these effects are partially mitigated by the presence of impervious surfaces within the urban and mixed archetypal watersheds. Depending on extent of precipitation variability, urban and moderately urban systems can expect the largest alteration to flow regimes where high flow events are expected to become more frequent. As a result, enhanced wash-off of suspended-sediments from available pervious surfaces is expected.

  10. Numerical Experiments on the Spin-up Time for Seasonal-Scale Regional Climate Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHONG Zhong; HU Yijia; MIN Jinzhong; XU Honglei

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, the numerical experiments on the issue of spin-up time for seasonal-scale regional climate modeling were conducted with the newly Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), in the case of the abnormal climate event during the summer of 1998 in China. To test the effect of spin-up time on the regional climate simulation results for such abnormal climate event, a total of 11 experiments were performed with different spin-up time from 10 days to 6 months, respectively. The simulation results show that, for the meteorological variables in the atmosphere, the model would be running in "climate mode" after 4-8-day spin-up time, then,it is independent of the spin-up time basically, and the simulation errors are mainly caused by the model's failure in describing the atmospheric processes over the model domain. This verifies again that the regional climate modeling is indeed a lateral boundary condition problem as demonstrated by earlier research work.The simulated mean precipitation rate over each subregion is not sensitive to the spin-up time, but the precipitation scenario is somewhat different for the experiment with different spin-up time, which shows that there exists the uncertainty in the simulation to precipitation scenario, and such a uncertainty exhibits more over the areas where heavy rainfall happened. Generally, for monthly-scale precipitation simulation, aspin-up time of 1 month is enough, whereas a spin-up time of 2 months is better for seasonal-scale one.Furthermore, the relationship between the precipitation simulation error and the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon was analyzed. It is found that the variability of correlation coefficient for precipitation is more significant over the areas where the summer monsoon is predominant. Therefore, the model's capability in reproducing precipitation features is related to the heavy rainfall processes associated with the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon, which suggests

  11. Effect of climate factors on wood veneers exposed to outdoor conditions in black sea region

    OpenAIRE

    Köse, Gaye; Temiz, Ali; Akbaş, Selçuk; Özkan, Emre

    2013-01-01

    In this study, 2×100×200 mm wood veneers obtained from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), European black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) and beech (Fagus orientalis L.) wood were exposed to outdoor climate conditions at three different cities (Trabzon, Artvin, and Kastamonu) of Black Sea region in Turkey for totally 4 months from May to August, 2012. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of climate factors on the changes occurred on different types of wood veneers that were subjected to ...

  12. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  13. Final Report on Hierarchical Coupled Modeling and Prediction of Regional Climate Change in the Atlantic Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A& M University

    2011-10-30

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: a) Carried out studies of climate changes in the past using a hierarchy of intermediate coupled models (Chang et al., 2008; Wan et al 2009; Wen et al., 2010a,b) b) Completed the development of a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM; Patricola et al., 2011a,b) c) Carried out studies testing hypotheses testing the origin of systematic errors in the CRCM (Patricola et al., 2011a,b) d) Carried out studies of the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, in the context of barrier layer interactions (Balaguru et al)

  14. Strategies for Teaching Regional Climate Modeling: Online Professional Development for Scientists and Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.; Yarker, M. B.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Otto, F. E. L.

    2014-12-01

    There is a clear role for climate science in supporting decision making at a range of scales and in a range of contexts: from Global to local, from Policy to Industry. However, clear a role climate science can play, there is also a clear discrepancy in the understanding of how to use the science and associated tools (such as climate models). Despite there being a large body of literature on the science there is clearly a need to provide greater support in how to apply appropriately. However, access to high quality professional development courses can be problematic, due to geographic, financial and time constraints. In attempt to address this gap we independently developed two online professional courses that focused on helping participants use and apply two regional climate models, WRF and PRECIS. Both courses were designed to support participants' learning through tutor led programs that covered the basic climate scientific principles of regional climate modeling and how to apply model outputs. The fundamental differences between the two courses are: 1) the WRF modeling course expected participants to design their own research question that was then run on a version of the model, whereas 2) the PRECIS course concentrated on the principles of regional modeling and how the climate science informed the modeling process. The two courses were developed to utilise the cost and time management benefits associated with eLearning, with the recognition that this mode of teaching can also be accessed internationally, providing professional development courses in countries that may not be able to provide their own. The development teams saw it as critical that the courses reflected sound educational theory, to ensure that participants had the maximum opportunity to learn successfully. In particular, the role of reflection is central to both course structures to help participants make sense of the science in relation to their own situation. This paper details the different

  15. Objective calibration of regional climate models: Application over Europe and North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellprat, O.; de Elía, R.; Frigon, A.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; Laprise, R.; Schär, C.

    2014-12-01

    An important source of model uncertainty in climate models arises from unconfined model parameters in physical parameterizations. These parameters are commonly estimated on the basis of manual adjustments (expert tuning), which carries the risk of over-tuning the parameters for a specific climate region or time period. This issue is particularly germane in the case of regional climate models (RCM), which are often developed and used in one or a few geographical regions only. Here we address the role of objective parameter calibration in this context. Using a previously developed objective calibration methodology, we calibrate an RCM over two regions (Europe and North America) and investigate the transferability of the results. A total of eight different model parameters are calibrated, using a metamodel to account for parameter interactions. We demonstrate that the calibration is effective in reducing model biases in both domains. For Europe, this concerns in particular a pronounced reduction of the summer warm bias and the associated overestimation of interannual temperature variability, that has persisted previous expert tuning efforts and that is common in many global and regional climate models. The key process responsible behind this improvement is an increased hydrological conductivity. Over North America, there is also some reduction of the summer warm bias, but in addition the calibration achieves a pronounced reduction of winter biases in interannual temperature variability. We also find that the calibrated parameter values are almost identical for both domains, i.e. the parameter calibration is transferable between the two regions. This is a promising result and indicates that models may be more universal than previously considered.

  16. Projected changes to high temperature events for Canada based on a regional climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Diro, Gulilat Tefera; Khaliq, M. Naveed; Beltrami, Hugo; Caya, Daniel

    2016-05-01

    Extreme hot spells can have significant impacts on human society and ecosystems, and therefore it is important to assess how these extreme events will evolve in a changing climate. In this study, the impact of climate change on hot days, hot spells, and heat waves, over 10 climatic regions covering Canada, based on 11 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the June to August summer period is presented. These simulations were produced with six RCMs driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM), for the A2 emission scenario, for the current 1970-1999 and future 2040-2069 periods. Two types of hot days, namely HD-1 and HD-2, defined respectively as days with only daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and both Tmax and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) exceeding their respective thresholds (i.e., period-of-record 90th percentile of Tmax and Tmin values), are considered in the study. Analogous to these hot days, two types of hot spells, namely HS-1 and HS-2, are identified as spells of consecutive HD-1 and HD-2 type hot days. In the study, heat waves are defined as periods of three or more consecutive days, with Tmax above 32 °C threshold. Results suggest future increases in the number of both types of hot days and hot spell events for the 10 climatic regions considered. However, the projected changes show high spatial variability and are highly dependent on the RCM and driving AOGCM combination. Extreme hot spell events such as HS-2 type hot spells of longer duration are expected to experience relatively larger increases compared to hot spells of moderate duration, implying considerable heat related environmental and health risks. Regionally, the Great Lakes, West Coast, Northern Plains, and Maritimes regions are found to be more affected due to increases in the frequency and severity of hot spells and/or heat wave characteristics, requiring more in depth studies for these regions

  17. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  18. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Donat, Markus G; Pitman, Andy J; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L

    2016-01-28

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  19. Climate-proofing spatial planning and water management projects: an analysis of 100 local and regional projects in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sedee, A.G.J.; Swart, R.J.; Pater, de F.; Goosen, H.; Pijnappels, M.H.J.; Vellinga, P.

    2014-01-01

    Since the turn of the century, an increasing number of local and regional authorities in Europe started making their city or region resilient to climate change, or ‘climate-proof’. Publications about the actual experiences with implementing these adaptation policies are as yet anecdotal, determined

  20. Streamflow estimation using WRF-Hydro with dynamically downscaled climate variables over southern tropical Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June to September), which constitutes around 80% of India's annual rainfall, has shown an increasing trend in intensity and frequency of extreme events (Goswami et al., 2006). It is a widely recognized fact that the increasing temperature in association with anthropogenic activities can affect the hydrological cycle, which leads to extreme events. In addition a shift in extremes of the spatial pattern of ISMR has recently been observed (Ghosh et al., 2011). Such changes in rainfall on temporal and spatial scale can further affect the stream flow over a given region subsequently making water resource management a difficult task (Mondal and Mujumdar, 2015). The hydrological models used for the stream flow estimation are dependent on various climate variables as input data. These climate variables could be obtained through either observational networks or climate model outputs. Due to the scarcity of the observational data over the Indian region and the coarse resolution of global climate model output, which is used as input to hydrologic models, large uncertainties are introduced in stream flow output (Overgaard et al., 2007). In the present study we have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al. 2008) to downscale the essential climate variables (surface temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.) as an input for its coupled hydrological extension, WRF Hydro (NCAR user's guide). We will present the results obtained from the WRF-hydro simulation to estimate the stream flow over the Thamirabarani river basin in Southern Tropical Indian region. Preliminary simulations using WRF to estimate the precipitation showed the reasonable quantitative agreement with observed values. An attempt will be made to demonstrate how these results can further be used for developing flood-forecasting techniques and for local regional water resource management.

  1. A Preliminary Synthesis of Modeled Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional Ozone Concentrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weaver, C. P.; Liang, X. Z.; Zhu, J.; Adams, P. J.; Amar, Praveen; Avise, J.; Caughey, M.; Chen, J.; Cohen, R. C.; Cooter, E.; Dawson, J. P.; Gilliam, R.; Gilliland, A.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Grambsch, A.; Grano, D.; Guenther, Alex; Gustafson, William I.; Harley, R. A.; He, Shan; Hemming, B.; Hogrefe, C.; Huang, H. -C.; Hunt, Sherri W.; Jacob, D.; Kinney, Patrick L.; Kunkel, K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lamb, Brian K.; Larkin, N.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Lin, J.; Lynn, B. H.; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Mass, Clifford S.; KcKenzie, D.; Mickley, L. J.; O' Neil, S.; Nolte, C.; Pandis, S. N.; Racherla, P. N.; Rosenzweig, C.; Russell, Armistead G.; Salathe, E.; Steiner, A. L.; Tagaris, Efthimios; Tao, Z.; Tonse, S.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Williams, A.; Winner, D. A.; Woo, J.-H; Wu, S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    2009-12-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential impacts of global climate change (c. 2050) on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions between climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality, the ultimate goal of which is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential impacts of global change on air quality, including O3, particulate matter (PM), and mercury (Hg). The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment whose aim was to consider the effects of climate change alone, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases in summertime O3 concentrations over some substantial regions of the country. These regional patterns of change, however, are not, in general, the same across the different simulations. These differences result from variations in the simulated patterns of mean changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. Some regions, such as the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, show greater agreement across groups, whereas others, such as the West Coast and the Southeast, show wider disagreements. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O3 response to climate change.

  2. Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-08-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  3. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  4. Evaluation of regional climate model simulations versus gridded observed and regional reanalysis products using a combined weighting scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eum, Hyung-Il; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Gachon, Philippe [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Climate Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Ouarda, Taha [University of Quebec, INRS-ETE (Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Quebec, QC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    This study presents a combined weighting scheme which contains five attributes that reflect accuracy of climate data, i.e. short-term (daily), mid-term (annual), and long-term (decadal) timescales, as well as spatial pattern, and extreme values, as simulated from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with respect to observed and regional reanalysis products. Southern areas of Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are used for the study area. Three series of simulation from two different versions of the Canadian RCM (CRCM4.1.1, and CRCM4.2.3) are employed over 23 years from 1979 to 2001, driven by both NCEP and ERA40 global reanalysis products. One series of regional reanalysis dataset (i.e. NARR) over North America is also used as reference for comparison and validation purpose, as well as gridded historical observed daily data of precipitation and temperatures, both series have been beforehand interpolated on the CRCM 45-km grid resolution. Monthly weighting factors are calculated and then combined into four seasons to reflect seasonal variability of climate data accuracy. In addition, this study generates weight averaged references (WARs) with different weighting factors and ensemble size as new reference climate data set. The simulation results indicate that the NARR is in general superior to the CRCM simulated precipitation values, but the CRCM4.1.1 provides the highest weighting factors during the winter season. For minimum and maximum temperature, both the CRCM4.1.1 and the NARR products provide the highest weighting factors, respectively. The NARR provides more accurate short- and mid-term climate data, but the two versions of the CRCM provide more precise long-term data, spatial pattern and extreme events. Or study confirms also that the global reanalysis data (i.e. NCEP vs. ERA40) used as boundary conditions in the CRCM runs has non-negligible effects on the accuracy of CRCM simulated precipitation and temperature values. In addition, this study demonstrates

  5. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  6. Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, D.

    2012-12-01

    This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a

  7. Dust emission size distribution impact on aerosol budget and radiative forcing over the Mediterranean region: a regional climate model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Nabat

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates the dust emission and load over the Mediterranean basin using the coupled-chemistry-aerosol regional climate model RegCM-4. The first step of this work focuses on dust particle emission size distribution modeling. We compare a parameterization in which the emission is based on the individual kinetic energy of the aggregates striking the surface to a recent parameterization based on an analogy with the fragmentation of brittle materials. The main difference between the two dust schemes concerns the mass proportion of fine aerosol which is reduced in the case of the new dust parameterization, with consequences for optical properties. At the episodic scale, comparisons between RegCM-4 simulations, satellite and ground-based data show a clear improvement using the new dust distribution in terms of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD values and geographic gradients. These results are confirmed at the seasonal scale for the investigated year 2008. A multi-annual simulation is finally carried out using the new dust distribution over the period 2000–2009. This change of dust distribution has sensitive impacts on the simulated regional dust budget, notably dry dust deposition and the regional direct aerosol radiative forcing over the Mediterranean basin. This could clearly modify the possible effects of dust aerosols on the biogeochemical activity and climate of the Mediterranean basin. In particular, we find that the new size distribution produces a higher dust deposition flux, and smaller top of atmosphere (TOA dust radiative cooling.

  8. Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will describe a project to between ecologists and climate scientists to inform National Park Service managers who are developing scenario planning for their parks and surrounding areas; this effort is advancing scenario methodologies and improving delivery mechanisms and applications to decision-making for National Parks. Climate change is expressed in both regional climatic shifts (e.g., temperature and precipitation changes) and local resource impacts. Resource management in a changing climate is challenging because future climate change and resource responses cannot be precisely predicted. Scenario planning is a tool to assess the range of plausible future conditions. However, selecting, acquiring, synthesizing, and scaling climate information for scenario planning requires significant time and skills. This project, which was recently selected for funding by the NC CSC, has three goals: 1) synthesize climate data into 3-5 distinctly different but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; 2) craft summaries of these climate futures that are relevant to local land management units; and 3) apply these local summaries to further develop quantitative climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and simulation models. We will engage multiple stakeholders in two focal areas within the region: southwestern South Dakota in the vicinity of Badlands National Park, and central North Dakota in the vicinity of Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. This effort will increase climate change planning efficiency in the region; promote collaborations across jurisdictions; and develop a prototype for a novel, efficient, and replicable form of scenario planning that could serve additional management units.

  9. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  10. The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polade, Suraj D.; Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D.

    2014-03-01

    Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

  11. DOI Climate Science Centers--Regional science to address management priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, Robin

    2012-01-01

    Our Nation's lands, waters, and ecosystems and the living and cultural resources they contain face myriad challenges from invasive species, the effects of changing land and water use, habitat fragmentation and degradation, and other influences. These challenges are compounded by increasing influences from a changing climate—higher temperatures, increasing droughts, floods, and wildfires, and overall increasing variability in weather and climate. The Department of the Interior (DOI) has established eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSC) (fig. 1) that will provide scientific information and tools to natural and cultural resource managers as they plan for conserving these resources in a changing world. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) is managing the CSCs on behalf of the DOI.

  12. The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polade, Suraj D; Pierce, David W; Cayan, Daniel R; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D

    2014-01-01

    Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability. PMID:24621567

  13. Modelling the regional climate and isotopic composition of Svalbard precipitation using REMOiso

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Divine..[], D.V.; Sjolte, Jesper; Isaksson, E.;

    2011-01-01

    Simulations of a regional (approx. 50 km resolution) circulation model REMOiso with embedded stable water isotope module covering the period 1958-2001 are compared with the two instrumental climate and four isotope series (d18O) from western Svalbard. We examine the data from ice cores drilled on...... Svalbard ice caps in 1997 (Lomonosovfonna, 1250 m asl) and 2005 (Holtedahlfonna, 1150 m asl) and the GNIP series from Ny-angstrom lesund and Isfjord Radio. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation data from Longyearbyen and Ny-angstrom lesund are used to assess the skill of the model in...... reproducing the local climate. The model successfully captures the climate variations on the daily to multidecadal times scales although it tends to systematically underestimate the winter SAT. Analysis suggests that REMOiso performs better at simulating isotope compositions of precipitation in the winter...

  14. Climate impacts and adaptation in Germany. Phase 1. Regional climate scenarios for Germany. Final report; Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland. Phase 1. Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien fuer Deutschland. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, Daniela; Goettel, Holger; Kotlarski, Sven; Lorenz, Philip; Sieck, Kevin [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie (MPI-M), Hamburg (Germany)

    2008-08-15

    The regional climate scenarios were evaluated using the climate model REMO. The model calculations were actualized and compared with observed data. The validation of the modeling results was performed using data sets concerning the temporal behavior, the precipitation amounts in several altitudes and the analysis of the probability density function of the air temperature. The results of different climate scenarios are discussed for the mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature. The model allows the prediction of the temporal development and number of summer days and extremely hot days. The change of further indices due to the climatic change caused by increasing greenhouse gas emissions is discussed.

  15. A regional response to global climate change: New England and eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Resource managers, scientists, and policy makers from New England and eastern Canada assembled at a 1993 symposium to consider the regional implications of global climate change and to develop state and provincial adaptation strategies. A summary is presented of issues discussed at this meeting, information gaps identified, and recommendations for an appropriate regional response. The symposium began with a regional overview and a review of the climate system and possible environmental impacts of global warming. Policy implications were also discussed. Working groups considered issues related to energy use, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry and agriculture, recreation and tourism, and sea level rise. Given the remaining uncertainties about the timing and extent of global warming, especially on a regional scale, the symposium recommended adoption of a series of measures which are beneficial in their own right and in the face of present variations of climate and its extremes. The recommendations were characterized by three broad themes: diversification of the natural resources based economy; risks to human health, ecological communities, and economic infrastructure; and information development and sharing. Proposed strategies were grouped in four major categories: adaptation to future changes; trend assessment; education; and limitation of greenhouse gas emissions

  16. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-08-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8 degrees C scenario, but to decrease significantly (-9.4%) under the 'business as usual' A1FI/+4.0 degrees C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras. PMID:20335215

  17. Climate change and water storage variability over an arid endorheic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Wang, Chao; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Xi; Yu, Zhongbo

    2015-10-01

    Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) plays an important role in regional climate and water resources management, especially in arid regions under global change context. However, serious lack of in-situ measurements in remote alpine mountains is hindering our current understanding of regional TWS change in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), a large and typical arid endorheic area in Northwest China of Central Asia. To solve the problem, four different hydrology products from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, model simulations from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) in conjunction with in-situ measurements, are utilized to investigate patterns and underlying causes of TWS and its component changes. An excess of precipitation over evapotranspiration (ET) plus runoff contributes to an increase of TWS. The phase of Total Soil Moisture (TSM) lags that of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), indicating a recharge from snowmelt to TSM. Increasing TWS together with decreasing SWE resulted in an increase of subsurface water. Our results are of great value to amend basin-wide water management and conservation strategies for the similar arid regions considering climate change.

  18. Evaluation of Future Precipitation Scenario Using Statistical Downscaling MODEL over Three Climatic Region of Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigdel, M.

    2014-12-01

    Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions such as humid, sub-humid and arid region of Nepal Himalaya. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP reanalysis data, the validation of the model and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 (high green house gases emission) and B2 (low green house gases emission) of the HadCM3 model for the future. Under both scenarios H3A2 and H3B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75% under scenario H3A2 and increase near about 11.68% under scenario H3B2 in the 2050s. For the 2080s there would be increase of 8.28% and 13.30% under H3A2 and H3B2 respectively compared to the base period.

  19. 15 local climate-energy plans: regions and districts, local leaders of the struggle against climate change; 15 plans climat - energie territoriaux regions et departements, animateurs territoriaux de la lutte contre le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    This report presents some general information, the sectors addressed by the Climate - Energy Plan, the approaches adopted, the plan elaboration process (organisation, participation and governance, diagnosis and challenges identification, communication actions), the actions and their follow-up, the success factors and the improvement opportunities of the Climate-energy Plans elaborated and adopted by different French regions (Alsace, Aquitaine, Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comte, Haute-Normandie, Languedoc-Roussillon, Limousin, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Poitou-Charentes) and districts (Alpes Maritimes, Bas-Rhin, Eure, Seine-Maritime)

  20. RCWIM - an improved global water isotope pattern prediction model using fuzzy climatic clustering regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguás-Araguás, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2013-04-01

    Prediction of geospatial H and O isotopic patterns in precipitation has become increasingly important to diverse disciplines beyond hydrology, such as climatology, ecology, food authenticity, and criminal forensics, because these two isotopes of rainwater often control the terrestrial isotopic spatial patterns that facilitate the linkage of products (food, wildlife, water) to origin or movement (food, criminalistics). Currently, spatial water isotopic pattern prediction relies on combined regression and interpolation techniques to create gridded datasets by using data obtained from the Global Network of Isotopes In Precipitation (GNIP). However, current models suffer from two shortcomings: (a) models may have limited covariates and/or parameterization fitted to a global domain, which results in poor predictive outcomes at regional scales, or (b) the spatial domain is intentionally restricted to regional settings, and thereby of little use in providing information at global geospatial scales. Here we present a new global climatically regionalized isotope prediction model which overcomes these limitations through the use of fuzzy clustering of climatic data subsets, allowing us to better identify and customize appropriate covariates and their multiple regression coefficients instead of aiming for a one-size-fits-all global fit (RCWIM - Regionalized Climate Cluster Water Isotope Model). The new model significantly reduces the point-based regression residuals and results in much lower overall isotopic prediction uncertainty, since residuals are interpolated onto the regression surface. The new precipitation δ2H and δ18O isoscape model is available on a global scale at 10 arc-minutes spatial and at monthly, seasonal and annual temporal resolution, and will provide improved predicted stable isotope values used for a growing number of applications. The model further provides a flexible framework for future improvements using regional climatic clustering.

  1. Non-stationarities in land-atmosphere-climate interactions in Europe and the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romberg, Karin; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2016-04-01

    Interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere are of major importance for the regional and global climate. Soil moisture thereby plays a key role: availability of water in the soils is one of the drivers of evaporation and thus impacts on temperature and precipitation. Regions of strong soil moisture-atmosphere coupling include the Mediterranean area while in other regions of Europe non-local effects such as the advection of dry (moist) air are more important. However, previous studies have also shown that climate is fundamentally non-stationary and that such non-stationarities occur on various spatial and temporal scales. These studies have mainly focused on sea-surface-atmosphere interactions or circulation-climate interactions. Thus, the question arises whether soil-moisture-atmosphere-climate interactions also show a non-stationary behavior. As a first step, Varimax-rotated s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce dimensions of soil moisture fields, circulation variables as well as of 2m temperature fields. The resulting PC loadings represent the spatial patterns while the PC scores are the corresponding time coefficients. For the analysis of non-stationarities, the time coefficients of soil moisture and temperature are further used in 30-year running correlation and feedback parameter analyses. Furthermore, correlation analyses are carried out for the circulation variables and soil moisture or temperature, as changes of the atmospheric circulation are a potential source of non-stationarities. All analyses focus on the boreal summer season 1950-2009. Results show substantial non-stationaries in the relationship between soil moisture and temperature in several regions in the European and Mediterranean domain. Depending on the region considered, these changes are accompanied by modifications in different large-scale circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavia pattern or a high pressure system centered

  2. Quantifying some of the impacts of dust and other aerosol on the Caspian Sea region using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elguindi, N.; Solmon, F.; Turuncoglu, U.

    2016-01-01

    The Central Asian deserts are a major dust source region that can potentially have a substantial impact on the Caspian Sea. Despite major advances in the modeling and prediction of the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) during recent years, no study to date has investigated the climatic effects of dust on the hydrological budget of the Sea. In this study, we utilize a regional climate model coupled to an interactive emission and transport scheme to simulate the effects of dust and other aerosol in the Caspian region. First, we present a validation of the model using a variety of AOD satellite observations as well as a climatology of dust storms. Compared to the range of satellite estimates, the model's AOD climatology is closer to the lower end of the observations, and exhibit a significant underestimation over the clay deserts found on the Ustyurt plateau and north of the Aral Sea. Nevertheless, we find encouraging results in that the model is able to reproduce the gradient of increasing AOD intensity from the middle to the southern part of the Sea. Spatially, the model reproduces reasonably well the observed climatological dust storm frequency maps which show that the most intense dust source regions to be found in the Karakum desert in Turkmenistan and Kyzylkum desert in Uzbekistan east of the Aral Sea. In the second part of this study we explore some impacts of dust and other aerosol on the climatology of the region and on the energy budget of the Sea. We find that the overall direct radiative effects of dust and other aerosol reduce the amount of shortwave radiation reaching the surface, dampen boundary layer turbulence and inhibit convection over the region. We also show that by including dust and aerosol in our simulation, we are able to reduce the positive biases in sea surface temperatures by 1-2 °C. Evaporation is also considerably reduced, resulting in an average difference of approximately 10 mm year^{-1} in the Sea's hydrological budget which is substantial

  3. Future agricultural water demand under climate change: regional variability and uncertainties arising from CMIP5 climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, J.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.

    2012-12-01

    The agricultural sector (irrigation and livestock) uses by far the largest amount of water among all sectors and is responsible for 70% of the global water withdrawal. At a country scale, irrigation water withdrawal often exceeds 90% of the total water used in many of emerging and developing countries such as India, Pakistan, Iran and Mexico, sustaining much of food production and the livelihood of millions of people. The livestock sector generally accounts less than 1-2% of total water withdrawal, yet exceeds 10-30% of the total water used in many of the African countries. Future agricultural water demand is, however, subject to large uncertainties due to anticipated climate change, i.e. warming temperature and changing precipitation variability, in various regions of the world. Here, we use a global hydrological and water resources model to quantify the impact of climate change on regional irrigation and livestock water demand, and the resulting uncertainties arsing from newly available CMIP5 climate projections obtained through Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP; http://www.isi-mip.org/). Irrigation water requirement per unit crop area is estimated by simulating daily soil water balance with crop-related data. Livestock water demand is calculated by combining livestock densities with their drinking water requirements that is a function of air temperature. The results of the ensemble mean show that global irrigation and livestock water demand increased by ~6% and ~12% by 2050 respectively primarily due to higher evaporative demand as a result of increased temperature. At a regional scale, agricultural water demand decreased over some parts of Europe (e.g., Italy, Germany) and Southeast Asia (e.g., the Philippines, Malaysia), but increased over South Asia, the U.S., the Middle East and Africa. However, the projections are highly uncertain over many parts of the world. The results of the ensemble projections in agricultural water demand

  4. Regional modelling of nitrate leaching from Swiss organic and conventional cropping systems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calitri, Francesca; Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Zaccone, Claudio; Spiess, Ernst; Herrera, Juan; Six, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Organic cropping systems have been promoted as a sustainable alternative to minimize the environmental impacts of conventional practices. Relatively little is known about the potential to reduce NO3-N leaching through the large-scale adoption of organic practices. Moreover, the potential to mitigate NO3-N leaching and thus the N pollution under future climate change through organic farming remain unknown and highly uncertain. Here, we compared regional NO3-N leaching from organic and conventional cropping systems in Switzerland using a terrestrial biogeochemical process-based model DayCent. The objectives of this study are 1) to calibrate and evaluate the model for NO3-N leaching measured under various management practices from three experiments at two sites in Switzerland; 2) to estimate regional NO3-N leaching patterns and their spatial uncertainty in conventional and organic cropping systems (with and without cover crops) for future climate change scenario A1B; 3) to explore the sensitivity of NO3-N leaching to changes in soil and climate variables; and 4) to assess the nitrogen use efficiency for conventional and organic cropping systems with and without cover crops under climate change. The data for model calibration/evaluation were derived from field experiments conducted in Liebefeld (canton Bern) and Eschikon (canton Zürich). These experiments evaluated effects of various cover crops and N fertilizer inputs on NO3-N leaching. The preliminary results suggest that the model was able to explain 50 to 83% of the inter-annual variability in the measured soil drainage (RMSE from 12.32 to 16.89 cm y-1). The annual NO3-N leaching was also simulated satisfactory (RMSE = 3.94 to 6.38 g N m-2 y-1), although the model had difficulty to reproduce the inter-annual variability in the NO3-N leaching losses correctly (R2 = 0.11 to 0.35). Future climate datasets (2010-2099) from the 10 regional climate models (RCM) were used in the simulations. Regional NO3-N leaching

  5. MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CENTER OF THE DOE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, Andrew J. [Michigan Technological University

    2014-02-28

    The goal of NICCR (National Institute for Climatic Change Research) was to mobilize university researchers, from all regions of the country, in support of the climatic change research objectives of DOE/BER. The NICCR Midwestern Regional Center (MRC) supported work in the following states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The MRC of NICCR was able to support nearly $8 million in climatic change research, including $6,671,303 for twenty projects solicited and selected by the MRC over five requests for proposals (RFPs) and $1,051,666 for the final year of ten projects from the discontinued DOE NIGEC (National Institute for Global Environmental Change) program. The projects selected and funded by the MRC resulted in 135 peer-reviewed publications and supported the training of 25 PhD students and 23 Masters students. Another 36 publications were generated by the final year of continuing NIGEC projects supported by the MRC. The projects funded by the MRC used a variety of approaches to answer questions relevant to the DOE’s climate change research program. These included experiments that manipulated temperature, moisture and other global change factors; studies that sought to understand how the distribution of species and ecosystems might change under future climates; studies that used measurements and modeling to examine current ecosystem fluxes of energy and mass and those that would exist under future conditions; and studies that synthesized existing data sets to improve our understanding of the effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems. In all of these efforts, the MRC specifically sought to identify and quantify responses of terrestrial ecosystems that were not well understood or not well modeled by current efforts. The MRC also sought to better understand and model important feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and regional

  6. Adaptation of rainfed agriculture to climatic variability in the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogé, P.; Friedman, A. R.; Astier, M.; Altieri, M.

    2015-12-01

    The traditional management systems of the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico offer historical lessons about resilience to climatic variability. We interviewed small farmers to inquire about the dynamics of abandonment and persistence of a traditional management systems. We interpret farmers' narratives from a perspective of general agroecological resilience. In addition, we facilitated workshops in small farmers described their adaptation to past climate challenges and identified 14 indicators that they subsequently used to evaluate the condition of their agroecosystems. The most recent years presented increasingly extreme climatic and socioeconomic hardships: increased temperatures, delayed rainy seasons, reduced capacity of soils to retain soil moisture, changing cultural norms, and reduced rural labor. Farmers reported that their cropping systems were changing for multiple reasons: more drought, later rainfall onset, decreased rural labor, and introduced labor-saving technologies. Examination of climate data found that farmers' climate narratives were largely consistent with the observational record. There have been increases in temperature and rainfall intensity, and an increase in rainfall seasonality that may be perceived as later rainfall onset. Farmers ranked landscape-scale indicators as more marginal than farmer management or soil quality indicators. From this analysis, farmers proposed strategies to improve the ability of their agroecosystems to cope with climatic variability. Notably, they recognized that social organizing and education are required for landscape-level indicators to be improved. Transformative change is required to develop novel cropping systems and complementary activities to agriculture that will allow for farming to be sustained in the face of these challenges. Climate change adaptation by small farmers involves much more than just a set of farming practices, but also community action to tackle collective problems.

  7. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M

    2014-06-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build

  8. Impact of land surface degradation in northern China and southern Mongolia on regional climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Jingyong; DONG Wenjie; FU Congbin

    2005-01-01

    Clear evidence provided by the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data identifies that there exists a sensitive region of vegetation-climate interaction located in the transitional zone over northern China and its surrounding areas, where the vegetation cover change has the most significant influence on summer precipitation over China. Comparison of reanalysis data with station data provides a good method to assess the impacts of land use change on surface temperature, and the most obvious contribution of land use change may be to lead to notable warming over northern China in the interdecadal time scale. Based on the new statistical results, a high-resolution regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS) is employed to investigate the effects of land surface degradation over the transitional zone and its surrounding areas (northern China and southern Mongolia) on the regional climate. Land degradation results in the decreases in precipitation over northern and southern China, and the increase in between, and increased and decreased temperature over vegetation change areas and the adjacent area to the south, respectively. Not only would it change the surface climate, but also bring the significant influence on the atmospheric circulation. Both the surface climate and circulation changes generally agree to the observed interdecadal anomalies over the last five decades. These integrated statistical and simulated results imply that land surface degradation over the transitional zone in northern China and its surrounding areas could be one of the main causes responsible for the climate anomalies over China, especially the drought over northern China.

  9. Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royles, Jessica; Griffiths, Howard

    2015-03-01

    Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats.

  10. Regional flood frequency analysis in Triveneto (Italy): climate and scale controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

    2016-04-01

    The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national regionalization approaches. Our study focuses on the Triveneto region, a broad geographical area in North-eastern Italy consisting of the administrative regions of Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 80s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for ~80 catchments located in Triveneto. Our dataset includes the historical data mentioned above, together with more recent data obtained from Regional Services and annual maximum peak streamflows extracted from inflow series to artificial reservoirs and provided by dam managers. All ~80 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The main objectives of our study are: (1) to check whether climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) to verify the possible presence of trends as well as abrupt changes in the intensity and frequency of flood extremes by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to assess the reliability and representativeness of the reference procedure for design flood estimation relative to flood data that were not included in the VA.PI. dataset (i.e. more recent data collected after the 80s and historical data provided by dam managers); (4) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI).

  11. Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan; Melcher, Cynthia P.

    2016-01-01

    The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

  12. Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decadal climate prediction is a branch of climate modelling with the theoretical potential to anticipate climate impacts years in advance. Here we present analysis of the ENSEMBLES decadal simulations, the first multi-model decadal hindcasts, focusing on the skill in prediction of temperature and precipitation—important for impact prediction. Whilst previous work on this dataset has focused on the skill in multi-year averages, we focus here on the skill in prediction at smaller timescales. Considering annual and seasonal averages, we look at correlations, potential predictability and multi-year trend correlations. The results suggest that the prediction skill for temperature comes from the long-term trend, and that precipitation predictions are not skilful. The potential predictability of the models is higher for annual than for seasonal means and is largest over the tropics, though it is low everywhere else and is much lower for precipitation than for temperature. The globally averaged temperature trend correlation is significant at the 99% level for all models and is higher for annual than for seasonal averages; however, for smaller spatial regions the skill is lower. For precipitation trends, the correlations are not skilful on either annual or seasonal scales. Whilst climate models run in decadal prediction mode may be useful by other means, the hindcasts studied here have limited predictive power on the scales at which climate impacts and the results presented suggest that they do not yet have sufficient skill to drive impact models on decadal timescales. (letter)

  13. Climate Variability, Andean Livelihood Strategies, Development and Adaptation in the Andean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, C.; Quiroz, R.; Zorogastua, P.; Baigorrea, G.

    2002-05-01

    Development programs in the Andes have failed to recognize climate variability as an element that is crucial to the adoption of new alternatives. Dairy, potatoes, improved sheep, forages are all part of the history of development in this region. A combination of climate variability, changes in the economy, the political environment, and land tenure reform shape rural livelihoods and welfare. Diversification, linking to markets, and networking are some elements that contribute to the resilience of families in the Andes. Strategies change, are flexible, and may incorporate non-agricultural activities. While some farmers are able to improve their welfare through the life cycle, others become poorer. Climate variability increases the vulnerability of some groups; in other cases, because of diversification and assets, households build economic portfolios that are more resilient to the elements. The many projects provide insights into how in the long run households improve their environment, hinting at mechanisms to adapt to climate change. In order to understand changing composition of portfolios in future scenarios of spatial heterogeneous areas such as mountains (Andes), estimates of models predicting climate change at a global scale are not useful because their resolution. Therefore, downscaling tools are useful. Spatial heterogeneity is assessed through agroecozoning. Both production and the impact on some environmental indicators are simulated through process-based models, for the Ilave-Huenque watershed in Peru that help in discussing scenarios of adaptation.

  14. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  15. Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students

  16. A needs assessment for climate change education in the Great Lakes region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, S.; Schneider, L. B.; Walters, H.

    2011-12-01

    The National Science Foundation funded Great Lakes Climate Change Science and Education Systemic Network project is implementing a two year planning effort to create innovative education programs to benefit the public, formal and informal educators, scientists, and journalists in the region. The current partners include Eastern Michigan University, NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Knight Center for Environmental Journalism, Ashland University, Ann Arbor Hands-On Museum, and the College of Exploration. To create a network we are planning to bring together different stakeholders to write two white papers, one from the scientists' perspective and the other from the educators'(both formal and informal) perspective. The current partners' key personnel have produced a list of possible people/institutions to include in a stakeholder survey. Some of the key personnel developed their databases from scratch. Some used listserves, and others tried a snowball email. To identify the best strategy that will inform these various stakeholders and the public regarding the science of climate change in the Great Lakes Region, a survey was developed for each of the different stakeholders. The survey is divided into three parts: 1) questions which convey some understanding of climate science and climate change 2) demographic questions, and finally 3) questions that pertain to the professional concerns or perspectives of the various stakeholders. This survey is being used to provide the project team with a "needs assessment" from the interested members of those stakeholders. The results from this process will be summarized.

  17. Potential effects of climate change on hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biftu, G.F.; Beersing, A.; Kalinga, O.A.; Pandit, K.N. [Golder Associates Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2007-07-01

    The potential effects of climate change must be incorporated within environmental assessments of oil and gas developments. This paper evaluated the findings of a study examining the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta. Components of the study included a review of trends in climate parameters and their effect on hydrology, as well as statistical analyses of precipitation, temperature and stream flow data of the Athabasca River at both the local and regional scale. The influences of tributary streams were also examined. Results of the study demonstrated that air temperatures have been steadily rising over the past few decades. Recorded annual precipitation also increased during the spring and summer months, and decreased during the winter and fall. Annual mean flows decreased. Results suggested that wet and dry cycles tended to exaggerate trends when only partial segments of the cycles were analyzed. The analysis of flows in the tributary streams indicated a that mean and peak flows were also decreasing. However, an increase in peak winter flows was observed. It was concluded that there is a large degree of uncertainty in the predictions of the hydrologic effects of climate change. 17 refs., 6 tabs.

  18. Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

  19. Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

  20. Characteristics of an early Holocene climate and environment from lake sediments in Ebinur region, NW China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Jinglu; SHEN Ji; WANG Sumin; JIN Zhangdong; YANG Xiangdong

    2005-01-01

    The characteristics of climatic environment in the early Holocene epoch were studied through analyzing environmental proxies from the sediments in the Ebinur Lake--a closed one in the arid region. The pollen assemblage and other geochemical indices showed that, the temperature was somewhat low in the period (8.0-11.5 cal kaBP) as a whole, but in the early period (11.5-10.6 cal kaBP) the temperature was higher, in company with more precipitation. In the conversion period from the early Holocene epoch to the middle Holocene epoch (8.9-8.0 cal kaBP) the climate fluctuated remarkably. Particularly the three layers of peat sediment revealed the strong instability of climate in the early Holocene epoch in the Ebinur region. All information on the development of peat and the experimental data of pollen and stable isotopes implied that, the climatic condition at 8.2, 8.6 and 10.5 cal kaBP was characterized by noticeable cold and humidness, and could be regarded as three cold and humid events in the early Holocene epoch.

  1. Rainfall variability, climate change and regionalization in the African monsoon region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This summary recalls some results at the end of the AMMA international experiment (2003-2010) in terms of variability of the African monsoon at the intra-seasonal to multi-decadal scales and of climate prospective. The results confirmed the weight of surface temperatures and marine tele-connections for inter-annual and decadal fluctuations and stressed the importance of atmospheric variability. They also described the dominant modes of intra-seasonal variability as their interactions with the surface. Several hypotheses involving memory effects related to soil water and vegetation, particularly in boreal spring and autumn have also been made. Prospective analysis from model output suggests rainfall surplus around 2050 over the Eastern-central Sahel and relative deficit to the West. Phase 2 of AMMA (2010-2020) will focus more on aspects that have a high social impact in direct collaboration with meteorological services predictability, prediction scores, operational indicators, evaluation of the part of anthropogenic forcing in the current and future variations. (authors)

  2. The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

    KAUST Repository

    Meng, Xianhong

    2013-05-05

    Albedo plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions and local climate. This study presents the impact on simulating regional climate, and the evolution of a drought, when using the default climatological albedo as is usually done in regional climate modelling, or using the actual observed albedo which is rarely done. Here, time-varying satellite derived albedo data is used to update the lower boundary condition of the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model in order to investigate the influence of observed albedo on regional climate simulations and also potential changes to land-atmosphere feedback over south-east Australia. During the study period from 2000 to 2008, observations show that albedo increased with an increasingly negative precipitation anomaly, though it lagged precipitation by several months. Compared to in-situ observations, using satellite observed albedo instead of the default climatological albedo provided an improvement in the simulated seasonal mean air temperature. In terms of precipitation, both simulations reproduced the drought that occurred from 2002 through 2006. Using the observed albedo produced a drier simulation overall. During the onset of the 2002 drought, albedo changes enhanced the precipitation reduction by 20 % on average, over locations where it was active. The area experiencing drought increased 6.3 % due to the albedo changes. Two mechanisms for albedo changes to impact land-atmosphere drought feedback are investigated. One accounts for the increased albedo, leading to reduced turbulent heat flux and an associated decrease of moist static energy density in the planetary boundary layer; the other considers that enhanced local radiative heating, due to the drought, favours a deeper planetary boundary layer, subsequently decreasing the moist static energy density through entrainment of the free atmosphere. Analysis shows that drought related large-scale changes in the regional climate favour a

  3. Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legave, Jean-Michel; Guédon, Yann; Malagi, Gustavo; El Yaacoubi, Adnane; Bonhomme, Marc

    2015-01-01

    The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

  4. Differentiated responses of apple tree floral phenology to global warming in contrasting climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Michel eLegave

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation declines and heat accumulation increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift towards responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

  5. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  6. Perceptions of Climate Change, Weather Shocks, and Impacts on Households in the MENA region

    OpenAIRE

    Adoho, Franck; Wodon, Quentin

    2014-01-01

    What are the perceptions of households in the Middle East and North Africa Region regarding changes in the climate of the areas where they live? To what extent are households affected by extreme weather events such as droughts or floods? And who tends to suffer the most from such events when they occur? This chapter suggests answers to these questions on the basis of new household survey data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. The household surveys were implemente...

  7. Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Collins

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs and global temperature change potentials (GTPs. For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs. The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20–30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

  8. Sensitivity of lake ice regimes to climate change in the nordic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gebre

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A one-dimensional process-based multi-year lake ice model, MyLake, was used to simulate lake ice phenology and annual maximum lake ice thickness for the Nordic region comprising Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries. The model was first tested and validated using observational meteorological forcing on a candidate lake (Lake Atnsjøen and using downscaled ERA-40 reanalysis data set. To simulate ice conditions for the contemporary period of 1961–2000, the model was driven by gridded meteorological forcings from ERA-40 global reanalysis data downscaled to a 25 km resolution using the Rossby Center Regional Climate Model (RCA. The model was then forced with two future climate scenarios from the RCA driven by two different GCMs based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The two climate scenarios correspond to two future time periods namely the 2050s (2041–2070 and the 2080s (2071–2100. To take into account the influence of lake morphometry, simulations were carried out for four different hypothetical lake depths (5 m, 10 m, 20 m, 40 m placed at each of the 3708 grid cells. Based on a comparison of the mean predictions in the future 30 yr periods with the control (1961–1990 period, ice cover durations in the region will be shortened by 1 to 11 weeks in 2041–2070, and 3 to 14 weeks in 2071–2100. Annual maximum lake ice thickness, on the other hand, will be reduced by a margin of up to 60 cm by 2041–2070 and up to 70 cm by 2071–2100. The simulated changes in lake ice characteristics revealed that the changes are less dependent on lake depths though there are slight differences. The results of this study provide a~regional perspective of anticipated changes in lake ice regimes due to climate warming across the study area by the middle and end of this century.

  9. Dynamical downscaling of regional climate over eastern China using RSM with multiple physics scheme ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peishu, Zong; Jianping, Tang; Shuyu, Wang; Lingyun, Xie; Jianwei, Yu; Yunqian, Zhu; Xiaorui, Niu; Chao, Li

    2016-06-01

    The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble.

  10. Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Roshin, R.P.; Narvekar, J.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Vivekanandan, E

    version: Marine Environmental Research: 68(5); 2009; 217-222 Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift S. Prasanna Kumar 1* , Raj P. Roshin 1 , Jayu Narvekar 1 , P.K. Dinesh Kumar 2 and E. Vivekanandan 3...; winter temperature; wheat production; food quantity; vegetation cover. _____________________________________________________________ * Corresponding Author. S. Prasanna Kumar, Tel. +91 832 2450300; Fax +91 2450608, E-mail address: prasanna...

  11. Evaluation of precipitation over an oceanic region of Japan in convection-permitting regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Akihiko; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Kawase, Hiroaki; Nosaka, Masaya

    2016-05-01

    We investigated the performance of a convection-permitting regional climate model with respect to precipitation in the present climate around the southwestern oceanic region of Japan. The effects of explicit representation of convective processes without cumulus parameterization can be properly estimated by using a model domain without complex topography or convoluted coastlines. The amounts of annual and monthly precipitation and the frequencies of daily and hourly precipitation were well reproduced by the convection-permitting model with a 2-km grid spacing, and its performance was better than that of a model with a coarser mesh. In particular, the frequencies of hourly precipitation in the convection-permitting simulation matched the observed frequencies for precipitation intensities below 20 mm h-1. Above intensities of 20 mm h-1, however, the convection-permitting model tended to overestimate the frequency of hourly precipitation. To explore the mechanism of this overestimation of heavy hourly precipitation, the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation to the horizontal resolution was tested by changing the horizontal grid spacing of the model from 2 to 4 km and then 1.5 km. The results showed that the overestimation was increased when the horizontal resolution was coarser, owing to spurious grid-scale precipitation, which causes heavy precipitation to be highly concentrated in a single grid. This spurious grid-scale precipitation may be caused by insufficient representation of convective downdrafts in convection-permitting simulations by models with coarser resolutions.

  12. Evaluating climate variables, indexes and thresholds governing Arctic urban sustainability: case study of Russian permafrost regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, O. A.; Kokorev, V.

    2013-12-01

    Addressing Arctic urban sustainability today forces planners to deal with the complex interplay of multiple factors, including governance and economic development, demography and migration, environmental changes and land use, changes in the ecosystems and their services, and climate change. While the latter can be seen as a factor that exacerbates the existing vulnerabilities to other stressors, changes in temperature, precipitation, snow, river and lake ice, and the hydrological regime also have direct implications for the cities in the North. Climate change leads to reduced demand for heating energy, on one hand, and heightened concerns about the fate of the infrastructure built upon thawing permafrost, on the other. Changes in snowfall are particularly important and have direct implications for the urban economy, as together with heating costs, expenses for snow removal from streets, airport runways, roofs and ventilation corridors underneath buildings erected on pile foundations on permafrost constitute the bulk of the city's maintenance budget. Many cities are located in river valleys and are prone to flooding that leads to enormous economic losses and casualties, including human deaths. The severity of the northern climate has direct implications for demographic changes governed by regional migration and labor flows. Climate could thus be viewed as an inexhaustible public resource that creates opportunities for sustainable urban development. Long-term trends show that climate as a resource is becoming more readily available in the Russian North, notwithstanding the general perception that globally climate change is one of the challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. In this study we explore the sustainability of the Arctic urban environment under changing climatic conditions. We identify key governing variables and indexes and study the thresholds beyond which changes in the governing climatic parameters have significant impact on the economy

  13. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  14. Regional climate projections in two alpine river basins: Upper Danube and Upper Brahmaputra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobler, A.; Yaoming, M.; Sharma, N.; Kienberger, S.; Ahrens, B.

    2011-04-01

    Projections from coarse-grid global circulation models are not suitable for regional estimates of water balance or trends of extreme precipitation and temperature, especially not in complex terrain. Thus, downscaling of global to regionally resolved projections is necessary to provide input to integrated water resources management approaches for river basins like the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB). This paper discusses the application of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM as a dynamical downscaling tool. To provide accurate data the COSMO-CLM model output was post-processed by statistical means. This downscaling chain performs well in the baseline period 1971 to 2000. However, COSMO-CLM performs better in the UDRB than in the UBRB because of a longer application experience and a less complex climate in Europe. Different climate change scenarios were downscaled for the time period 1960-2100. The projections show an increase of temperature in both basins and for all seasons. The values are generally higher in the UBRB with the highest values occurring in the region of the Tibetan Plateau. Annual precipitation shows no substantial change. However, seasonal amounts show clear trends, for instance an increasing amount of spring precipitation in the UDRB. Again, the largest trends for different precipitation statistics are projected in the region of the Tibetan Plateau. Here, the projections show up to 50% longer dry periods in the months June to September with a simultaneous increase of about 10% for the maximum amount of precipitation on five consecutive days. For the Assam region in India, the projections also show an increase of 25% in the number of consecutive dry days during the monsoon season leading to prolonged monsoon breaks.

  15. Quantification of the uncertainties in soil and vegetation parameterizations for regional climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breil, Marcus; Schädler, Gerd

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the german research program MiKlip II is the development of an operational climate prediction system that can provide reliable forecasts on a decadal time scale. Thereby, one goal of MiKlip II is to investigate the feasibility of regional climate predictions. Results of recent studies indicate that the regional climate is significantly affected by the interactions between the soil, the vegetation and the atmosphere. Thus, within the framework of MiKlip II a workpackage was established to assess the impact of these interactions on the regional decadal climate predictability. In a