Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions
Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.
2008-12-01
Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from
Broad-Scale Environmental Conditions Responsible for Post-Fire Vegetation Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stuart E. Marsh
2010-11-01
Full Text Available Ecosystem response to disturbance is influenced by environmental conditions at a number of scales. Changes in climate have altered fire regimes across the western United States, and have also likely altered spatio-temporal patterns of post-fire vegetation regeneration. Fire occurrence data and a vegetation index (NDVI derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR were used to monitor post-fire vegetation from 1989 to 2007. We first investigated differences in post-fire rates of vegetation regeneration between ecoregions. We then related precipitation, temperature, and elevation records at four temporal scales to rates of post-fire vegetation regeneration to ascertain the influence of climate on post-fire vegetation dynamics. We found that broad-scale climate factors are an important influence on post-fire vegetation regeneration. Most notably, higher rates of post-fire regeneration occurred with warmer minimum temperatures. Increases in precipitation also resulted in higher rates of post-fire vegetation growth. While explanatory power was slight, multiple statistical approaches provided evidence for real ecological drivers of post-fire regeneration that should be investigated further at finer scales. The sensitivity of post-disturbance vegetation dynamics to climatic drivers has important ramifications for the management of ecosystems under changing climatic conditions. Shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes are likely to result in changes in post-disturbance dynamics, which could represent important feedbacks into the global climate system.
Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change
Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm
2016-07-01
Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.
Plant functional diversity affects climate-vegetation interaction
Groner, Vivienne P.; Raddatz, Thomas; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin
2018-04-01
We present how variations in plant functional diversity affect climate-vegetation interaction towards the end of the African Humid Period (AHP) in coupled land-atmosphere simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). In experiments with AHP boundary conditions, the extent of the green Sahara varies considerably with changes in plant functional diversity. Differences in vegetation cover extent and plant functional type (PFT) composition translate into significantly different land surface parameters, water cycling, and surface energy budgets. These changes have not only regional consequences but considerably alter large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the position of the tropical rain belt. Towards the end of the AHP, simulations with the standard PFT set in MPI-ESM depict a gradual decrease of precipitation and vegetation cover over time, while simulations with modified PFT composition show either a sharp decline of both variables or an even slower retreat. Thus, not the quantitative but the qualitative PFT composition determines climate-vegetation interaction and the climate-vegetation system response to external forcing. The sensitivity of simulated system states to changes in PFT composition raises the question how realistically Earth system models can actually represent climate-vegetation interaction, considering the poor representation of plant diversity in the current generation of land surface models.
Semi-arid vegetation response to antecedent climate and water balance windows
Thoma, David P.; Munson, Seth M.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Witwicki, Dana L.; Bunting, Erin
2016-01-01
Questions Can we improve understanding of vegetation response to water availability on monthly time scales in semi-arid environments using remote sensing methods? What climatic or water balance variables and antecedent windows of time associated with these variables best relate to the condition of vegetation? Can we develop credible near-term forecasts from climate data that can be used to prepare for future climate change effects on vegetation? Location Semi-arid grasslands in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah, USA. Methods We built vegetation response models by relating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS imagery in Mar–Nov 2000–2013 to antecedent climate and water balance variables preceding the monthly NDVI observations. We compared how climate and water balance variables explained vegetation greenness and then used a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance models to forecast monthly NDVI for three holdout years. Results Water balance variables explained vegetation greenness to a greater degree than climate variables for most growing season months. Seasonally important variables included measures of antecedent water input and storage in spring, switching to indicators of drought, input or use in summer, followed by antecedent moisture availability in autumn. In spite of similar climates, there was evidence the grazed grassland showed a response to drying conditions 1 mo sooner than the ungrazed grassland. Lead times were generally short early in the growing season and antecedent window durations increased from 3 mo early in the growing season to 1 yr or more as the growing season progressed. Forecast accuracy for three holdout years using a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance variables outperformed forecasts made with a naïve NDVI climatology. Conclusions We determined the influence of climate and water balance on vegetation at a fine temporal scale, which presents an opportunity to forecast vegetation
Determining Thermal Specifications for Vegetated GREEN Roofs in Moderate Winter Climats
Dr. Christoph Maria Ravesloot
2015-01-01
Because local weather conditions in moderate climates are changing constantly, heat transfer specifications of substrate and vegetation in vegetated green roofs also change accordingly. Nevertheless, it is assumed that vegetated green roofs can have a positive effect on the thermal performance of
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.-N. Woillez
2013-03-01
Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.
Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A
2014-01-01
The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.
Changes in climatic conditions, vegetation cover and erosion during the Holocene in southeast Spain
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.
2009-07-01
The present-day landscape in Southeast Spain is the result of a long occupation history. To have a better understanding of the impact of human societies on soil degradation, we analysed the main shifts in vegetation cover, climate and human occupation for the last 12000 years. Our analyses use recently published information from continental and marine pollen series. The data suggest that climatic factors appear to be important driving factors of vegetation degradation induced by an increased aridity that is already recorded at about 5000 years ago. (Author) 19 refs.
Changes in climatic conditions, vegetation cover and erosion during the Holocene in southeast Spain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.
2009-01-01
The present-day landscape in Southeast Spain is the result of a long occupation history. To have a better understanding of the impact of human societies on soil degradation, we analysed the main shifts in vegetation cover, climate and human occupation for the last 12000 years. Our analyses use recently published information from continental and marine pollen series. The data suggest that climatic factors appear to be important driving factors of vegetation degradation induced by an increased aridity that is already recorded at about 5000 years ago. (Author) 19 refs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Helder Fraga
Full Text Available The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.
Lucas, M.; Miura, T.; Trauernicht, C.; Frazier, A. G.
2017-12-01
A drought which results in prolonged and extended deficit in naturally available water supply and creates multiple stresses across ecosystems is classified as an ecological drought. Detecting and understanding the dynamics and response of such droughts in tropical systems, specifically across various vegetation and climatic gradients is fairly undetermined, yet increasingly important for better understandings of the ecological effects of drought. To understanding the link between what lengths and intensities of known meteorological drought triggers detectable ecological vegetation responses, a landscape scale regression analysis evaluating the response (slope) and relationship strength (R-squared) of several cumulative SPI (standard precipitation index) lengths(1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 month), to various satellite derived monthly vegetation indices anomalies (NDVI, EVI, EVI2, and LSWI) was performed across a matrix of dominant vegetation covers (grassland, shrubland, and forest) and climatic moisture zones (arid, dry, mesic, and wet). The nine different SPI lags across these climactic and vegetation gradients was suggest that stronger relationships and steeper slopes were found in dryer climates (across all vegetation covers) and finer vegetation types (across all moisture zones). Overall NDVI, EVI and EVI2 showed the best utility in these dryer climatic zones across all vegetation types. Within arid and dry areas "best" fits showed increasing lengths of cumulative SPI were with increasing vegetation coarseness respectively. Overall these findings suggest that rainfall driven drought may have a stronger impact on the ecological condition of vegetation in water limited systems with finer vegetation types ecologically responding more rapidly to meteorological drought events than coarser woody vegetation systems. These results suggest that previously and newly documented trends of decreasing rainfall and increasing drought in Hawaiian drylands may have
Cuo, L.
2017-12-01
Desert is an area that receives less than 25 cm precipitation in cold climate or 50 cm precipitation in hot climate (Miller, 1961). Others defined true desert as a region having no recorded precipitation in 12 consecutive months (McGinnies et al., 1968). According to Koppen-Gieger climate classification system, if mean annual precipitation is less than 50% of the value A calculated by mean annual temperature times 20 plus 280 if 70% or more precipitation falls in April-September, the region has desert climate; if the mean annual precipitation is within 50%-100% of the value A, the region has semi-arid or steppe climate. On the Tibetan Plateau, the above definitions will result in no desert at all or the majority of the region falling into the category of desert which is not consistent with reality based on field exploration. In this study, the fractional vegetation coverage (FPC), precipitation, soil moisture and extreme wind days are used as indices to define areas of various degrees of desertification which produces much more realistic distribution of desert areas on the plateau. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Vegetation model (LPJ) is used to simulate vegetation growth, succession and vegetation properties such as FPC and soil moisture on the Tibetan Plateau. Gridded daily climate data are generated to drive the model and to analyze the status and changes of various deserts including light desert, medium desert, severe desert, extremely severe desert and desert proned area. The study will reveal the status and changes of possible driving factors of desertification, as well as various kinds of desert on the Tibetan Plateau during 1957-2015.
Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skov, Flemming; Nygaard, Bettina; Wind, Peter; Floejgaard, Camilla; Borchsenius, Finn; Normand, Signe; Balslev, Henrik; Svenning, Jens-Christian
2009-01-01
In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Soerensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and adaptive
Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark
Skov, Flemming; Nygaard, Bettina; Wind, Peter; Borchsenius, Finn; Normand, Signe; Balslev, Henrik; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian
2009-11-01
In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Sørensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and adaptive
Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Skov, Flemming; Nygaard, Bettina; Wind, Peter; Floejgaard, Camilla [Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Grenaavej 14, DK-8410 Roende (Denmark); Borchsenius, Finn; Normand, Signe; Balslev, Henrik; Svenning, Jens-Christian, E-mail: fs@dmu.d [Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark)
2009-11-01
In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Soerensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and
Werner, Christian; Liakka, Johan; Schmid, Manuel; Fuentes, Juan-Pablo; Ehlers, Todd A.; Hickler, Thomas
2017-04-01
Vegetation composition and establishment is strongly dependent on climate conditions but also a result of vegetation dynamics (competition for light, water and nutrients). In addition, vegetation exerts control over the development of landscapes as it mediates the climatic and hydrological forces shaping the terrain via hillslope and fluvial processes. At the same time, topography as well as soil texture and soil depth affect the microclimate, soil water storage and rooting space that is defining the environmental envelope for vegetation development. Within the EarthShape research program (www.earthshape.net) we evaluate these interactions by simulating the co-evolution of landscape and vegetation with a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (LandLab). LPJ-GUESS is a mechanistic model driven by daily or monthly weather data and explicitly simulates vegetation physiology, succession, competition and water and nutrient cycling. Here we present the results of first transient vegetation simulations from 21kyr BP to present-day using the TraCE-21ka climate dataset for four focus sites along the coastal cordillera of Chile that are exposed to a substantial meridional climate gradient (ranging from hyper-arid to humid-temperate conditions). We show that the warming occurring in the region from LGM to present, in addition to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, led to a shift in vegetation composition and surface cover. Future work will show how these changes resonate in the dynamics of hillslope and fluvial erosion and ultimately bi-directional feedback mechanisms of vegetation development and landscape evolution/ soil formation (see also companion presentation by Schmid et al., this session).
Updated vegetation information in high resolution regional climate simulations using WRF
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Joakim Refslund; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.
Climate studies show that the frequency of heat wave events and above-average high temperatures during the summer months over Europe will increase in the coming decades. Such climatic changes and long-term meteorological conditions will impact the seasonal development of vegetation and ultimately...... modify the energy distribution at the land surface. In weather and climate models it is important to represent the vegetation variability accurately to obtain reliable results. The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model uses a green vegetation fraction (GVF) climatology to represent the seasonal...... or changes in management practice since it is derived more than twenty years ago. In this study, a new high resolution, high quality GVF product is applied in a WRF climate simulation over Denmark during the 2006 heat wave year. The new GVF product reflects the year 2006 and it was previously tested...
Zhang, Yuan-Dong; Zhang, Xiao-He; Liu, Shi-Rong
2011-02-01
Based on the 1982-2006 NDVI remote sensing data and meteorological data of Southwest China, and by using GIS technology, this paper interpolated and extracted the mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and drought index in the region, and analyzed the correlations of the annual variation of NDVI in different vegetation types (marsh, shrub, bush, grassland, meadow, coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, alpine vegetation, and cultural vegetation) with corresponding climatic factors. In 1982-2006, the NDVI, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation had an overall increasing trend, and the drought index decreased. Particularly, the upward trend of mean annual temperature was statistically significant. Among the nine vegetation types, the NDVI of bush and mash decreased, and the downward trend was significant for bush. The NDVI of the other seven vegetation types increased, and the upward trend was significant for coniferous forest, meadow, and alpine vegetation, and extremely significant for shrub. The mean annual temperature in the areas with all the nine vegetation types increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no significant change. The drought index in the areas with marsh, bush, and cultural vegetation presented an increasing trend, that in the areas with meadow and alpine vegetation decreased significantly, and this index in the areas with other four vegetation types had an unobvious decreasing trend. The NDVI of shrub and coniferous forest had a significantly positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and that of shrub and meadow had significantly negative correlation with drought index. Under the conditions of the other two climatic factors unchanged, the NDVI of coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, and alpine vegetation showed the strongest correlation with mean annual temperature, that of grass showed the strongest correlation with annual precipitation, and the NDVI of mash, shrub, grass, meadow, and cultural
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci, Cubo 31C, I-87036, Rende (CS) (Italy); Vecchio, Antonio, E-mail: tommaso.alberti@unical.it, E-mail: tommasoalberti89@gmail.com [LESIA—Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, 5 place Jules Janssen, F-92190, Meudon (France)
2017-07-20
The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio
2017-01-01
The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.
Quantifying How Climate Affects Vegetation in the Amazon Rainforest
Das, K.; Kodali, A.; Szubert, M.; Ganguly, S.; Bongard, J.
2016-12-01
Amazon droughts in 2005 and 2010 have raised serious concern about the future of the rainforest. Amazon forests are crucial because of their role as the largest carbon sink in the world which would effect the global warming phenomena with decreased photosynthesis activity. Especially, after a decline in plant growth in 1.68 million km2 forest area during the once-in-a-century severe drought in 2010, it is of primary importance to understand the relationship between different climatic variables and vegetation. In an earlier study, we have shown that non-linear models are better at capturing the relation dynamics of vegetation and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, compared to linear models. In this research, we learn precise models between vegetation and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) for normal conditions in the Amazon region using genetic programming based symbolic regression. This is done by removing high elevation and drought affected areas and also considering the slope of the region as one of the important factors while building the model. The model learned reveals new and interesting ways historical and current climate variables affect the vegetation at any location. MAIAC data has been used as a vegetation surrogate in our study. For temperature and precipitation, we have used TRMM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature data sets while learning the non-linear regression model. However, to generalize the model to make it independent of the data source, we perform transfer learning where we regress a regularized least squares to learn the parameters of the non-linear model using other data sources such as the precipitation and temperature from the Climatic Research Center (CRU). This new model is very similar in structure and performance compared to the original learned model and verifies the same claims about the nature of dependency between these climate variables and the vegetation in the Amazon region. As a result of this
Past and future effects of climate change on spatially heterogeneous vegetation activity in China
Gao, Jiangbo; Jiao, Kewei; Wu, Shaohong; Ma, Danyang; Zhao, Dongsheng; Yin, Yunhe; Dai, Erfu
2017-07-01
Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.
Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective
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Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))
2009-04-15
This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform
Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara
2009-04-01
This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform
Last Glacial vegetation and climate change in the southern Levant
Miebach, Andrea; Chen, Chunzhu; Litt, Thomas
2015-04-01
Reconstructing past climatic and environmental conditions is a key task for understanding the history of modern mankind. The interaction between environmental change and migration processes of the modern Homo sapiens from its source area in Africa into Europe is still poorly understood. The principal corridor of the first human dispersal into Europe and also later migration dynamics crossed the Middle East. Therefore, the southern Levant is a key area to investigate the paleoenvironment during times of human migration. In this sense, the Last Glacial (MIS 4-2) is particularly interesting to investigate for two reasons. Firstly, secondary expansions of the modern Homo sapiens are expected to occur during this period. Secondly, there are ongoing discussions on the environmental conditions causing the prominent lake level high stand of Lake Lisan, the precursor of the Dead Sea. This high stand even culminated in the merging of Lake Lisan and Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee). To provide an independent proxy for paleoenvironmental reconstructions in the southern Levant during the Last Glacial, we investigated pollen assemblages of the Dead Sea/Lake Lisan and Lake Kinneret. Located at the Dead Sea Transform, the freshwater Lake Kinneret is nowadays connected via the Jordan with the hypersaline Dead Sea, which occupies Earth's lowest elevation on land. The southern Levant is a transition area of three different vegetation types. Therefore, also small changes in the climate conditions effect the vegetation and can be registered in the pollen assemblage. In contrast to the Holocene, our preliminary results suggest another vegetation pattern during the Last Glacial. The vegetation belt of the fragile Mediterranean biome did no longer exist in the vicinity of Lake Kinneret. Moreover, the vegetation was rather similar in the whole study area. A steppe vegetation with dwarf shrubs, herbs, and grasses predominated. Thermophilous elements like oaks occurred in limited amounts. The
Broad-Scale Environmental Conditions Responsible for Post-Fire Vegetation Dynamics
Casady, Grant M.; Marsh, Stuart E.
2010-01-01
Ecosystem response to disturbance is influenced by environmental conditions at a number of scales. Changes in climate have altered fire regimes across the western United States, and have also likely altered spatio-temporal patterns of post-fire vegetation regeneration. Fire occurrence data and a vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) were used to monitor post-fire vegetation from 1989 to 2007. We first investigated differences in post-fi...
Oscillations in a simple climate-vegetation model
Rombouts, J.; Ghil, M.
2015-05-01
We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate-vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate-vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.
Effects of climate change on forest vegetation in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 6
Keane, Robert E.; Mahalovich, Mary Frances; Bollenbacher, Barry L.; Manning, Mary E.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Jain, Terrie B.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Larson, Andrew J.; Webster, Meredith M.
2018-01-01
The projected rapid changes in climate will affect the unique vegetation assemblages of the Northern Rockies region in myriad ways, both directly through shifts in vegetation growth, mortality, and regeneration, and indirectly through changes in disturbance regimes and interactions with changes in other ecosystem processes, such as hydrology, snow dynamics, and exotic invasions (Bonan 2008; Hansen and Phillips 2015; Hansen et al. 2001; Notaro et al. 2007). These impacts, taken collectively, could change the way vegetation is managed by public land agencies in this area. Some species may be in danger of rapid decreases in abundance, while others may undergo range expansion (Landhäusser et al. 2010). New vegetation communities may form, while historical vegetation complexes may simply shift to other areas of the landscape or become rare. Juxtaposed with climate change concerns are the consequences of other land management policies and past activities, such as fire exclusion, fuels treatments, and grazing. A thorough assessment of the responses of vegetation to projected climate change is needed, along with an evaluation of the vulnerability of important species, communities, and vegetation-related resources that may be influenced by the effects, both direct and indirect, of climate change. This assessment must also account for past management actions and current vegetation conditions and their interactions with future climates.
Decision-Support System for Urban Air Pollution under Future Climate Conditions
Jensen , Steen ,; Brandt , Jørgen; Hvidberg , Martin; Ketzel , Matthias; Hedegaard , Gitte ,; Christensen , Jens ,
2011-01-01
Part 6: Climate Services and Environmental Tools for Urban Planning and Climate Change Applications and Services; International audience; Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions and challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Urban climates will be faced with elevated temperatures and future climate conditions are expected to cause higher ozone concentrations, increased biogenic emissions from vegetation, changes in the chemistry of the atm...
Mukwada, Geoffrey; Manatsa, Desmond
2018-05-24
The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.
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Bin He
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm–dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm
Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D
2017-07-01
Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water
Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.
2017-01-01
Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water
Climatic drivers of vegetation based on wavelet analysis
Claessen, Jeroen; Martens, Brecht; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Molini, Annalisa; Miralles, Diego
2017-04-01
Vegetation dynamics are driven by climate, and at the same time they play a key role in forcing the different bio-geochemical cycles. As climate change leads to an increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological extremes, vegetation is expected to respond to these changes, and subsequently feed back on their occurrence. This response can be analysed using time series of different vegetation diagnostics observed from space, in the optical (e.g. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF)) and microwave (Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD)) domains. In this contribution, we compare the climatic drivers of different vegetation diagnostics, based on a monthly global data-cube of 24 years at a 0.25° resolution. To do so, we calculate the wavelet coherence between each vegetation-related observation and observations of air temperature, precipitation and incoming radiation. The use of wavelet coherence allows unveiling the scale-by-scale response and sensitivity of the diverse vegetation indices to their climatic drivers. Our preliminary results show that the wavelet-based statistics prove to be a suitable tool for extracting information from different vegetation indices. Going beyond traditional methods based on linear correlations, the application of wavelet coherence provides information about: (a) the specific periods at which the correspondence between climate and vegetation dynamics is larger, (b) the frequencies at which this correspondence occurs (e.g. monthly or seasonal scales), and (c) the time lag in the response of vegetation to their climate drivers, and vice versa. As expected, areas of high rainfall volumes are characterised by a strong control of radiation and temperature over vegetation. Furthermore, precipitation is the most important driver of vegetation variability over short terms in most regions of the world - which can be explained by the rapid response of leaf development towards available water content
How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modeling approach
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Nabil Laanaia
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The implementation of adaptation strategies of agriculture and forestry to climate change is conditioned by the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the vegetation cycle and of the associated uncertainties. Using the same generic Land Surface Model (LSM to simulate the response of various vegetation types is more straightforward than using several specialized crop and forestry models, as model implementation differences are difficult to assess. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of a LSM to address this issue. Using the SURFEX (“Surface Externalisée” modeling platform, we produced and analyzed 150-yr (1950–2100 simulations of the biomass of four vegetation types (rainfed straw cereals, rainfed grasslands, broadleaf and needleleaf forests and of the soil water content associated to each of these vegetation types over France. Statistical methods were used to quantify the impact of climate change on simulated phenological dates. The duration of soil moisture stress periods increases everywhere in France, especially for grasslands with, on average, an increase of 9 days per year in near-future (NF conditions and 36 days per year in distant-future (DF conditions. For all the vegetation types, leaf onset and the annual maximum LAI occur earlier. For straw cereals in the Languedoc-Provence-Corsica area, NF leaf onset occurs 18 days earlier and 37 days earlier in DF conditions, on average. On the other hand, local discrepancies are simulated for the senescence period (e.g. earlier in western and southern France for broadleaf forests, slightly later in mountainous areas of eastern France for both NF and DF. Changes in phenological dates are more uncertain in DF than in NF conditions in relation to differences in climate models, especially for forests. Finally, it is shown that while changes in leaf onset are mainly driven by air temperature, longer soil moisture stress periods trigger earlier leaf senescence
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ramirez, Vanessa Valdez; Williams, Stephen E.; VanDerWal, Jeremy
2007-01-01
Full text: Full text: There is now ample evidence demonstrating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and human society (Walther ef a/. 2002). Numerous studies have shown climate change is one of the most significant threats to tropical forests, such as the Wet Tropics Heritage Area, due to their high biodiversity and endemism (Pounds ef al. 1999; Hughes 2000; Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Williams ef al. (2003) suggested that small shifts in net primary productivity (NPP) as a result of climate change could lead to potentially massive follow-on effects for the extremely diverse and vulnerable rainforest flora and fauna. It is therefore crucial to explore the relationships between NPP and local biodiversity, especially to create models for different climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, NPP in the Wet Tropics has yet to be estimated. This is the first study to provide a general NPP estimate for the Wet Tropics bioregion using climate surrogates (Schuur 2003). This technique estimates NPP in an accurate, repeatable, and cost-effective way. NPP values were linked to vegetation types and examined under various climatic and environmental conditions. Results show a significant difference in productivity according to vegetation types and climatic variables, with temperature and rainfall seasonality as the most important determining variables. Additionally, lowland and upland vegetations showed a significant difference in productivity patterns throughout the year. Vegetation types located above 1000 metres in altitude had the lowest values of mean annual productivity due to their high rainfall and low temperatures; vegetation types located below 600 metres showed increased productivity values during the wet season (December-March). Net primary productivity will certainly be impacted by changes in temperature and rainfall, due to climate change. Although an increase in NPP values can be predicted for upland areas, the more widely distributed lowlands will drastically
Relationships between vegetation and climate change in Transbaikalia, Siberia
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Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I. [V.N. Sukachev Inst. of Forest, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Akademgorodok, Krasnoyarsk (Russian Federation)
2002-10-01
This paper demonstrated how vegetation of the Lake Baikal basin may respond to climate change at a mountain biome (an orobiome over the entire basin) and a stand in a locality. An orobiome vegetation model was developed along with a higher resolution stand model based on climatic parameters. Regional climates were modeled based on physiology and site climates based on topography. Bioclimatic multiple regression models were then developed to predict regional vegetation and forest stand characteristics distribution over a mountain range in Central Transbaikalia under current and future climate scenarios. Bioclimatic models were combined with climatic layers of different resolutions. Tree species composition and wood volume was predicted based on 2 climate indices - temperature sums (base 5 degrees C) and the dryness index. Results indicate that lowland vegetation will shift 250 m upslope and highland vegetation will shift 450 m upslope. This will significantly reduce the tundra and light-needled taiga, and will expand the forest-steppe. Results also indicate that the total phytomass within the entire basin will not change much. Stand phytomass across the basin will, however, increase. The model used in this study does not include climate-forcing factors such as wind, snow and permafrost. The model is open to new development to include a dynamic components that would inject vitality into the model. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.
Tadesse, Tsegaye; Demisse, Getachew Berhan; Zaitchik, Ben; Dinku, Tufa
2014-03-01
An experimental drought monitoring tool has been developed that predicts the vegetation condition (Vegetation Outlook) using a regression-tree technique at a monthly time step during the growing season in Eastern Africa. This prediction tool (VegOut-Ethiopia) is demonstrated for Ethiopia as a case study. VegOut-Ethiopia predicts the standardized values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at multiple time steps (weeks to months into the future) based on analysis of "historical patterns" of satellite, climate, and oceanic data over historical records. The model underlying VegOut-Ethiopia capitalizes on historical climate-vegetation interactions and ocean-climate teleconnections (such as El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) expressed over the 24 year data record and also considers several environmental characteristics (e.g., land cover and elevation) that influence vegetation's response to weather conditions to produce 8 km maps that depict future general vegetation conditions. VegOut-Ethiopia could provide vegetation monitoring capabilities at local, national, and regional levels that can complement more traditional remote sensing-based approaches that monitor "current" vegetation conditions. The preliminary results of this case study showed that the models were able to predict the vegetation stress (both spatial extent and severity) in drought years 1-3 months ahead during the growing season in Ethiopia. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and satellite-observed vegetation condition range from 0.50 to 0.90. Based on the lessons learned from past research activities and emerging experimental forecast models, future studies are recommended that could help Eastern Africa in advancing knowledge of climate, remote sensing, hydrology, and water resources.
Pickarski, N.; Litt, T.
2017-12-01
A new detailed pollen and oxygen isotope record of the penultimate interglacial-glacial cycle (ca. 250-129 ka; MIS 7-6), has been generated from the sediment core at Lake Van, Turkey. The integration of all available proxies (pollen, microscopic charcoal, δ18Obulk, and XRF) shows three temperate intervals of high effective soil moisture availability. This is evidenced by the predominance of oak steppe-forested landscapes similar to the present interglacial vegetation in this sensitive semiarid region. The wettest/warmest stage, as indicated by highest temperate tree percentages, can be broadly correlated with MIS 7c, while the amplitude of the tree population maximum during the oldest penultimate interglacial (MIS 7e) appears to be reduced due to warm but drier climatic conditions. A detailed comparison of the penultimate interglacial complex (MIS 7) to the last interglacial (MIS 5e) and the current interglacial (MIS 1) provides a vivid illustration of possible differences in the successive climatic cycles. Intervening periods of treeless vegetation (MIS 7d, 7a) were predominated by steppe elements. The occurrence of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae during MIS 7d indicates very dry and cold climatic conditions, while higher temperate tree percentages (mainly deciduous Quercus) points to relatively humid and mild conditions throughout MIS 7b. Despite the general dominance of dry and cold desert-steppe vegetation during the penultimate glacial (MIS 6), this period can be divided into two parts: an early stage (ca. 193-157 ka) with higher oscillations in tree percentages and a later stage (ca. 157-131 ka) with lower tree percentages and subdued oscillations. Furthermore, we are able to identify the MIS 6e event (ca. 179-159 ka), which reveals clear climate variability due to rapid alternation in the vegetation cover. In comparison with long European pollen archives, speleothem isotope records from the Near East, and global climate parameters, the new high
African climate and vegetation at the roots of humankind during the Pliocene
Contoux, Camille; Ramstein, Gilles; Banks, Will; Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Zhang, Zhongshi
2017-04-01
This study is devoted to the intricate links between climate, vegetation and hominin population distribution during Pliocene, during which peculiar combinations of climate and vegetation conditions have favored the development of hominin species. The aridification of North Africa from the Late Oligocene to the Tortonian has been recently linked to the Tethys shrinkage and associated changes in monsoon patterns. Since the Tortonian the response to orbital forcing has drastically increased accompanied by the onset of the Sahara desert [Zhang et al , Nature 2014] . Therefore, the context of the emergence and development of hominins is marked by a succession of wet and dry periods driven by orbital forcing factors. We focus here on the Pliocene period during which fossils have been discovered West and East of the African Rift (in the Chad basin and Rift Valley respectively). In order to better understand the climate and vegetation relationships during this period allowing populations to live both West and East of the Rift, we simulated the climate of the Pliocene for different orbital configurations with the coupled model IPSL-CM5A (OAGCM). We then use these simulated climates to carry out an equilibrium vegetation model, BIOME4, for 4 different orbital configurations with high eccentricity. We found that australopithecines occur in areas were primary productivity and precipitation are low, suggesting they were adapted to semi-arid environments.
INFORMATION-ANALYTICAL SYSTEM OF FORECAST VEGETATION FIRES IN NATURAL CONDITIONS
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R. M. Kogan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A system for spatial prediction for fire danger as function of weather and pyrological vegetation characteristics was constructed. The method of calculating the time conducted vegetable combustible materials in fire condition of each month of the season was suggested. Calculate the probability of fires and danger periods of plant formations in a monsoon climate. The geographic information system was developed, it was tested in the Middle Amur region in the Russian Far East.
The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change
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U. Port
2012-11-01
Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.
Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.
Changes in vegetation phenology on the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants.
Miao, Lijuan; Müller, Daniel; Cui, Xuefeng; Ma, Meihong
2017-01-01
Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.
Simulations of Vegetation Impacts on Arctic Climate
Bonfils, C.; Phillips, T. J.; Riley, W. J.; Post, W. M.; Torn, M. S.
2009-12-01
Because global warming disproportionately influences high-latitude climate, changes in arctic vegetation are in progress. These land-cover changes include redistribution of local vegetation types as well as northward migration of lower-latitude species in response to the increasing warming. The resulting displacement of low-lying tundra vegetation by shrubs and trees darkens the surface, thus accelerating regional warming. As participants in the U.S. Department of Energy IMPACTS Project, we are investigating the potential for abrupt arctic climatic change resulting from such variations in vegetation, among other mechanisms. To estimate the relative magnitudes of effects to be expected from changes in high-latitude land cover, we are conducting several numerical experiments with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). These experiments include: 1) A “present-day-climate” control experiment with current atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations and climatological monthly sea surface temperatures and sea ice extents prescribed, and with “standard” CLM plant functional types (PFTs) specified; 2) A “changed-vegetation-type” experiment that is the same as 1), except that the “standard” PFTs are augmented by additional vegetation types (forbs, sedges, shrubs, mosses, and lichens) that are not presently represented in CLM. This experiment will require information on the location, fractional cover, and physiological parameterizations of these new PFTs. 3) A “changed-vegetation-extent experiment” that is the same as 2), except that the spatial extents of selected PFTs (e.g. shrubs or boreal forest PFTs) are shifted northward from their present locations in the CLM. We will report on the atmospheric climate and land-surface feedbacks associated with these vegetation changes, with emphasis on local and regional surface energy and moisture fluxes and near-surface temperature, humidity, and clouds. Acknowledgments This work was performed under the auspices
Climate and Vegetation Effects on Temperate Mountain Forest ...
Current forest composition may be resilient to typical climatic variability; however, climate trends, combined with projected changes in species composition, may increase tree vulnerability to water stress. A shift in forest composition toward tree species with higher water use has implications for biogenic emissions and deposition of reactive nitrogen and carbon compounds. Forest evapotranspiration (ET) can vary greatly at daily and seasonal time scales, but compared to carbon fluxes, often exhibits relatively consistent inter-annual behavior. The processes controlling ET involve the combined effects of physical and biological factors. Atmospheric conditions that promote high ET, consisting of high radiation and vapor pressure deficit (D), are often characterized by rainless periods when soil water supply to vegetation may be limiting and plant stomata may close to prevent excessive water loss. In contrast, periods of high ecosystem water availability require frequent precipitation and are characterized by low D. Thus, the combination of these contrasting conditions throughout a growing season may explain some of the consistency in ET. Additionally, vegetation composition is also an important factor in determining ET. In mixed species forests, physiological differences in water use strategies (e.g. isohydric/anisohydric species) can produce conservative water use throughout wet and dry phases of the growing season. Furthermore, transpiration by evergreen specie
Handiani, Dian Noor
2012-01-01
This study focuses on the climate and vegetation responses to abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. Two abrupt climate events are explored: the abrupt cooling of the Heinrich event 1 (HE1), followed by the abrupt warming of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (BA). These two events are simulated by perturbing the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean, with the intention of altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and also of in...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Garreta, Vincent; Guiot, Joel; Hely, Christelle [CEREGE, UMR 6635, CNRS, Universite Aix-Marseille, Europole de l' Arbois, Aix-en-Provence (France); Miller, Paul A.; Sykes, Martin T. [Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund (Sweden); Brewer, Simon [Universite de Liege, Institut d' Astrophysique et de Geophysique, Liege (Belgium); Litt, Thomas [University of Bonn, Paleontological Institute, Bonn (Germany)
2010-08-15
Climate reconstructions from data sensitive to past climates provide estimates of what these climates were like. Comparing these reconstructions with simulations from climate models allows to validate the models used for future climate prediction. It has been shown that for fossil pollen data, gaining estimates by inverting a vegetation model allows inclusion of past changes in carbon dioxide values. As a new generation of dynamic vegetation model is available we have developed an inversion method for one model, LPJ-GUESS. When this novel method is used with high-resolution sediment it allows us to bypass the classic assumptions of (1) climate and pollen independence between samples and (2) equilibrium between the vegetation, represented as pollen, and climate. Our dynamic inversion method is based on a statistical model to describe the links among climate, simulated vegetation and pollen samples. The inversion is realised thanks to a particle filter algorithm. We perform a validation on 30 modern European sites and then apply the method to the sediment core of Meerfelder Maar (Germany), which covers the Holocene at a temporal resolution of approximately one sample per 30 years. We demonstrate that reconstructed temperatures are constrained. The reconstructed precipitation is less well constrained, due to the dimension considered (one precipitation by season), and the low sensitivity of LPJ-GUESS to precipitation changes. (orig.)
Quetin, Gregory R.
The natural composition of terrestrial ecosystems can be shaped by climate to take advantage of local environmental conditions. Ecosystem functioning, e.g. interaction between photosynthesis and temperature, can also acclimate to different climatological states. The combination of these two factors thus determines ecological-climate interactions. The ecosystem functioning also plays a key role in predicting the carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, terrestrial surface energy balance, and the feedbacks in the climate system. Predicting the response of the Earth's biosphere to global warming requires the ability to mechanistically represent the processes controlling ecosystem functioning through photosynthesis, respiration, and water use. The physical environment in a place shapes the vegetation there, but vegetation also has the potential to shape the environment, e.g. increased photosynthesis and transpiration moisten the atmosphere. These two-way ecoclimate interactions create the potential for feedbacks between vegetation at the physical environment that depend on the vegetation and the climate of a place, and can change throughout the year. In Chapter 1, we derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by analyzing how the sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate at large spatial scales. In hot and wet locations, vegetation is greener in warmer years despite temperatures likely exceeding thermally optimum conditions. However, sunlight generally increases during warmer years, suggesting that the increased stress from higher atmospheric water demand is offset by higher rates of photosynthesis. The sensitivity of vegetation
Yang, Hao; Luo, Peng; Wang, Jun; Mou, Chengxiang; Mo, Li; Wang, Zhiyuan; Fu, Yao; Lin, Honghui; Yang, Yongping; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt
2015-01-01
Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang) increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water
Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau
Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.
2017-12-01
The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)
Changes in vegetation phenology on the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants.
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Lijuan Miao
Full Text Available Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.
Climate contributions to vegetation variations in Central Asian drylands
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Li; Fensholt, Rasmus
2015-01-01
Central Asia comprises a large fraction of the world's drylands, known to be vulnerable to climate change. We analyzed the inter-annual trends and the impact of climate variability in the vegetation greenness for Central Asia from 1982 to 2011 using GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index...
Climate change and spatial distribution of vegetation in Colombia
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Juan Carlos Alarcon Hincapie
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Vegetation change under two climate change scenarios in different periods of the 21st Century are modeled for Colombia. Vegetation for the years 1970 to 2000 was reproduced using the Holdridge model with climate data with a spatial resolution of 900 meters. The vegetation types that occupied the most territory were sub-humid tropical forest, tropical dry forest and Andean wet forest. These results were validated by comparing with the Colombian ecosystem map (SINA, 2007, which confirmed a high degree of similarity between the modeled spatial vegetation patterns and modern ecosystem distributions. Future vegetation maps were simulated using data generated by a regional climate model under two scenarios (A2 and B2; IPCC, 2007 for the periods 2011-2040 and 2070-2100. Based on our predictions high altitude vegetation will convert to that of lower altitudes and drier provinces with the most dramatic change occurring in the A2 scenario from 2070-2100. The most affected areas are the páramo and other high Andean vegetation types, which in the timeframe of the explored scenarios will disappear by the middle of the 21st Century.
Quantifying the effects of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation in Europe
Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph M.; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Smith, Benjamin; Kaplan, Jed O.; Alenius, Teija; Birks, H. John B.; Bjune, Anne E.; Christiansen, Jörg; Dodson, John; Edwards, Kevin J.; Giesecke, Thomas; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Kangur, Mihkel; Koff, Tiiu; Latałowa, Małgorzata; Lechterbeck, Jutta; Olofsson, Jörgen; Seppä, Heikki
2017-09-01
Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen-based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming
Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick
2013-04-01
Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and
IN11B-1621: Quantifying How Climate Affects Vegetation in the Amazon Rainforest
Das, Kamalika; Kodali, Anuradha; Szubert, Marcin; Ganguly, Sangram; Bongard, Joshua
2016-01-01
Amazon droughts in 2005 and 2010 have raised serious concern about the future of the rainforest. Amazon forests are crucial because of their role as the largest carbon sink in the world which would effect the global warming phenomena with decreased photosynthesis activity. Especially, after a decline in plant growth in 1.68 million km2 forest area during the once-in-a-century severe drought in 2010, it is of primary importance to understand the relationship between different climatic variables and vegetation. In an earlier study, we have shown that non-linear models are better at capturing the relation dynamics of vegetation and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, compared to linear models. In this research, we learn precise models between vegetation and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) for normal conditions in the Amazon region using genetic programming based symbolic regression. This is done by removing high elevation and drought affected areas and also considering the slope of the region as one of the important factors while building the model. The model learned reveals new and interesting ways historical and current climate variables affect the vegetation at any location. MAIAC data has been used as a vegetation surrogate in our study. For temperature and precipitation, we have used TRMM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature data sets while learning the non-linear regression model. However, to generalize the model to make it independent of the data source, we perform transfer learning where we regress a regularized least squares to learn the parameters of the non-linear model using other data sources such as the precipitation and temperature from the Climatic Research Center (CRU). This new model is very similar in structure and performance compared to the original learned model and verifies the same claims about the nature of dependency between these climate variables and the vegetation in the Amazon region. As a result of this
Xiao, Xiayun; Haberle, Simon G.; Shen, Ji; Xue, Bin; Burrows, Mark; Wang, Sumin
2017-06-01
A high-resolution, continuous 18.5 kyr (1 kyr = 1000 cal yr BP) macroscopic charcoal record from Qinghai Lake in southwestern Yunnan Province, China, reveals postglacial fire frequency and variability history. The results show that three periods with high-frequency and high-severity fires occurred during the periods 18.5-15.0, 13.0-11.5, and 4.3-0.8 ka, respectively. This record was compared with major pollen taxa and pollen diversity indices from the same core, and tentatively related to the regional climate proxy records with the aim to separate climate- from human-induced fire activity, and discuss vegetation-fire-climate interactions. The results suggest that fire was mainly controlled by climate before 4.3 ka and by the combined actions of climate and humans after 4.3 ka. Before 4.3 ka, high fire activity corresponded to cold and dry climatic conditions, while warm and humid climatic conditions brought infrequent and weak fires. Fire was an important disturbance factor and played an important role in forest dynamics around the study area. Vegetation responses to fire after 4.3 ka are not consistent with those before 4.3 ka, suggesting that human influence on vegetation and fire regimes may have become more prevalent after 4.3 ka. The comparisons between fire activity and vegetation reveal that evergreen oaks are flammable plants and fire-tolerant taxa. Alnus is a fire-adapted taxon and a nonflammable plant, but density of Alnus forest is a key factor to decide its fire resistance. The forests dominated by Lithocarpus/Castanopsis and/or tropical trees and shrubs are not easy to ignite, but Lithocarpus/Castanopsis and tropical trees and shrubs are fire-sensitive taxa. Fire appears to be unfavourable to plant diversity in the study area.
Observational Quantification of Climatic and Human Influences on Vegetation Greening in China
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Wenjian Hua
2017-04-01
Full Text Available This study attempts to quantify the relative contributions of vegetation greening in China due to climatic and human influences from multiple observational datasets. Satellite measured vegetation greenness, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and relevant climate, land cover, and socioeconomic data since 1982 are analyzed using a multiple linear regression (MLR method. A statistically significant positive trend of average growing-season (April–October NDVI is found over more than 34% of the vegetated areas, mainly in North China, while significant decreases in NDVI are only seen in less than 5% of the areas. The relationships between vegetation and climate (temperature, precipitation, and radiation vary by geographical location and vegetation type. We estimate the NDVI changes in association with the non-climatic effects by removing the climatic effects from the original NDVI time series using the MLR analysis. Our results indicate that land use change is the dominant factor driving the long-term changes in vegetation greenness. The significant greening in North China is due to the increase in crops, grasslands, and forests. The socioeconomic datasets provide consistent and supportive results for the non-climatic effects at the provincial level that afforestation and reduced fire events generally have a major contribution. This study provides a basis for quantifying the non-climatic effects due to possible human influences on the vegetation greening in China.
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Hao Yang
Full Text Available Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water
Vegetation and climate history during the last millennium derived from Anggertu Lake, Tengger Desert
Duan, F.; An, C.; Zhao, Y.; Wang, W.; Cao, Z.
2017-12-01
Studying the climate changes during the last millennium can help us to understand current relationship between human-social activities and natural environment changes, and improve projections of future climate. Pollen assemblages, loss-on-ignition (LOIorg at 550 °C) and grain size data collected from sediment core (AGE15A) from the center of Anggertu lake (eastern Tengger Desert, Inner Mongolia) are presented to reconstruct regional vegetation and climate history during the last millennium. Results show that: 1) desert or desert steppe dominated by Artemisia and Amaranthaceae expanded around this region during the period of 988 1437 A.D., indicating a generally dry climate condition with two short humid periods (1003 1082 A.D. and 1388 1437 A.D). These two wet periods are characterized by relatively high vegetation cover and bio-productivity, reflected by high pollen concentrations and LOIorg. Increase in the steppe or meadow vegetation communities (Poaceae, Cyperaceae) and vegetation cover during the period of 1437 2015 A.D. suggest a wetting trend, as also indicated by gradually finer grain size. The relatively high LOI indicate a high bio-productivity during this interval. And then unstable lacustrine environment was found with frequent fluctuations in pollen concentration and grain size since 1842 A.D.. 2) This study recorded a relatively dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP; 1082 1388 A.D.) and a wet Little Ice Age (LIA; 1437 1842 A.D.), which is generally consistent with climate characteristics in arid central Asia (ACA). 3) Increased Amaranthaceae and high abundance of Poaceae were related to overgrazing and agricultural activities at that time to some extent. Thus vegetation evolution of the lake region was influenced by human activities and climate changes.
Does urban vegetation mitigate air pollution in northern conditions?
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Setälä, Heikki; Viippola, Viljami; Rantalainen, Anna-Lea; Pennanen, Arto; Yli-Pelkonen, Vesa
2013-01-01
It is generally accepted that urban vegetation improves air quality and thereby enhances the well-being of citizens. However, empirical evidence on the potential of urban trees to mitigate air pollution is meager, particularly in northern climates with a short growing season. We studied the ability of urban park/forest vegetation to remove air pollutants (NO 2 , anthropogenic VOCs and particle deposition) using passive samplers in two Finnish cities. Concentrations of each pollutant in August (summer; leaf-period) and March (winter, leaf-free period) were slightly but often insignificantly lower under tree canopies than in adjacent open areas, suggesting that the role of foliage in removing air pollutants is insignificant. Furthermore, vegetation-related environmental variables (canopy closure, number and size of trees, density of understorey vegetation) did not explain the variation in pollution concentrations. Our results suggest that the ability of urban vegetation to remove air pollutants is minor in northern climates. -- Highlights: ► The ability of northern urban vegetation to remove air pollutants is minor. ► Vegetation-related environmental variables had no effect on air pollution levels. ► The ability of vegetation to clean air did not differ between summer and winter. ► Dry deposition passive samplers proved applicable in urban air pollution study. -- The ability of urban vegetation to remove air pollutants seems to be minor in northern climates
Franco-Gaviria, F.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Cordero-Oviedo, C.; López-Pérez, M.; Cárdenes-Sandí, G. M.; Romero, F. M.
2018-06-01
Climate variability and human activities have shaped the vegetation communities of the Maya region of southern Mexico and Central America on centennial to millennial timescales. Most research efforts in the region have focused on the lowlands, with relatively little known about the environmental history of the regional highlands. Here we present data from two sediment sequences collected from lakes in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico. Our aim was to disentangle the relative contributions of climate and human activities in the development of regional vegetation during the late Holocene. The records reveal a long-term trend towards drier conditions with superimposed centennial-scale droughts. A declining moisture trend from 3400 to 1500 cal yr BP is consistent with previously reported southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, whereas periodic droughts were probably a consequence of drivers such as El Niño. These conditions, together with dense human occupation, converted the vegetation from forest to more open systems. According to the paleoecological records, cultural abandonment of the area occurred ca. 1500 cal yr BP, favoring forest recovery that was somewhat limited by low moisture availability. About 600 cal yr BP, wetter conditions promoted the establishment of modern montane cloud forests, which consist of a diverse mixture of temperate and tropical elements. The vegetation types that occupied the study area during the last few millennia have remained within the envelope defined by the modern vegetation mosaic. This finding highlights the importance of microhabitats in the maintenance biodiversity through time, even under scenarios of high climate variability and anthropogenic pressure.
Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality
Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.
2014-12-01
Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover
Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Bighorn Basin, southern Montana
Lyford, M.E.; Betancourt, J.L.; Jackson, S.T.
2002-01-01
Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains. ?? 2002 University of Washington.
Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.
2017-12-01
Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land
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J. Bakker
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Anatolia forms a bridge between Europe, Africa and Asia and is influenced by all three continents in terms of climate, vegetation and human civilisation. Unfortunately, well-dated palynological records focussing on the period from the end of the classical Roman period until subrecent times are rare for Anatolia and completely absent for southwest Turkey, resulting in a lacuna in knowledge concerning the interactions of climatic change, human impact, and environmental change in this important region. Two well-dated palaeoecological records from the Western Taurus Mountains, Turkey, provide a first relatively detailed record of vegetation dynamics from late Roman times until the present in SW Turkey. Combining pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, sedimentological, archaeological data, and newly developed multivariate numerical analyses allows for the disentangling of climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation change. Results show changes in both the regional pollen signal as well as local soil sediment characteristics match shifts in regional climatic conditions. Both climatic as well as anthropogenic change had a strong influence on vegetation dynamics and land use. A moist environmental trend during the late-3rd century caused an increase in marshes and wetlands in the moister valley floors, limiting possibilities for intensive crop cultivation at such locations. A mid-7th century shift to pastoralism coincided with a climatic deterioration as well as the start of Arab incursions into the region, the former driving the way in which the vegetation developed afterwards. Resurgence in agriculture was observed in the study during the mid-10th century AD, coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. An abrupt mid-12th century decrease in agriculture is linked to socio-political change, rather than the onset of the Little Ice Age. Similarly, gradual deforestation occurring from the 16th century onwards has been linked to changes in
Climatic factors driving vegetation declines in the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts.
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Wenqian Zhao
Full Text Available Along with global climate change, the occurrence of extreme droughts in recent years has had a serious impact on the Amazon region. Current studies on the driving factors of the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts has focused on the influence of precipitation, whereas the impacts of temperature and radiation have received less attention. This study aims to explore the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation decline during the extreme droughts using vegetation index, precipitation, temperature and radiation datasets. First, time-lag effects of Amazonian vegetation responses to precipitation, radiation and temperature were analyzed. Then, a multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the contributions of climatic factors to vegetation greenness, from which the dominant climate-driving factors were determined. Finally, the climate-driven factors of Amazonian vegetation greenness decline during the 2005 and 2010 extreme droughts were explored. The results showed that (i in the Amazon vegetation greenness responded to precipitation, radiation and temperature, with apparent time lags for most averaging interval periods associated with vegetation index responses of 0-4, 0-9 and 0-6 months, respectively; (ii on average, the three climatic factors without time lags explained 27.28±21.73% (mean±1 SD of vegetation index variation in the Amazon basin, and this value increased by 12.22% and reached 39.50±27.85% when time lags were considered; (iii vegetation greenness in this region in non-drought years was primarily affected by precipitation and shortwave radiation, and these two factors altogether accounted for 93.47% of the total explanation; and (iv in the common epicenter of the two droughts, pixels with a significant variation in precipitation, radiation and temperature accounted for 36.68%, 40.07% and 10.40%, respectively, of all pixels showing a significant decrease in vegetation index in 2005, and 15.69%, 2.01% and 45.25% in
Disentangling Modern Fire-Climate-Vegetation Relationships across the Boreal Forest Biome
Young, A. M.; Boschetti, L.; Duffy, P.; Hu, F.; Higuera, P.
2015-12-01
Fire regimes differ between Eurasian and North American boreal forests, due in part to differences in climate and the dominant forest types. While North American boreal forests are dominated by stand-replacing fires, much of the Eurasian boreal forest is characterized by lower intensity surface fires. These different fire regimes have important consequences for continental-scale biogeochemical cycling and surface-energy fluxes1. Here, we use generalized linear models (GLM) and boosted regression trees (BRT) to explore the relative importance of vegetation, annual climatic factors, and their interactions in determining annual fire occurrence across Eurasian and North American boreal forests. We use remotely sensed burned area (MCD64A1), land cover (MCD12Q1), and observed climate data (CRU) from 2002-2012 at 0.25° spatial resolution to quantify these relationships at annual temporal scales and continental spatial scales. The spatial distribution of boreal fire occurrence was well explained with climate and vegetation variables, with similarities and differences in fire-climate-vegetation relationships between Eurasia and North America. For example, while GLMs indicate vegetation is a significant factor determining fire occurrence in both continents, the effect of climate differed. Spring temperature and precipitation are significant factors explaining fire occurrence in Eurasia, but no climate variables were significant for explaining fire occurrence in North America. BRTs complement this analysis, highlighting climatic thresholds to fire occurrence in both continents. The nature of these thresholds can vary among vegetation types, even within each continent, further implying regional sensitivity to climate-induced shifts in wildfire activity. To build on these results and better understand regional sensitivity of northern-high latitude fire regimes, future work will explore these relationships in forest-tundra and arctic tundra ecosystems, and apply historical
Notable shifting in the responses of vegetation activity to climate change in China
Chen, Aifang; He, Bin; Wang, Honglin; Huang, Ling; Zhu, Yunhua; Lv, Aifeng
The weakening relationship between inter-annual temperature variability and vegetation activity in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades has been reported by a recent study. However, how and to what extent vegetation activity responds to climate change in China is still unclear. We applied the Pearson correlation and partial correlation methods with a moving 15-y window to the GIMMS NDVI dataset from NOAA/AVHRR and observed climate data to examine the variation in the relationships between vegetation activity and climate variables. Results showed that there was an expanding negative response of vegetation growth to climate warming and a positive role of precipitation. The change patterns between NDVI and climate variables over vegetation types during the past three decades pointed an expending negative correlation between NDVI and temperature and a positive role of precipitation over most of the vegetation types (meadow, grassland, shrub, desert, cropland, and forest). Specifically, correlation between NDVI and temperature (PNDVI-T) have shifted from positive to negative in most of the station of temperature-limited areas with evergreen broadleaf forests, whereas precipitation-limited temperate grassland and desert were characterized by a positive PNDVI-P. This study contributes to ongoing investigations of the effects of climate change on vegetation activity. It is also of great importance for designing forest management strategies to cope with climate change.
Wang, H.
2017-12-01
Seasonal differences in climatic controls of vegetation growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China Bin He1 , Haiyan Wan11 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Corresponding author: Bin He, email addresses: hebin@bnu.edu.cnPhone:+861058806506, Address: Beijing Normal University, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Email addresses of co-authors: wanghaiyan@mail.bnu.edu.cnABSTRACTLaunched in 2000, the Beiing-Tainjin Sand Source Controlling Project (BTSSCP) is an ecological restoration project intended to prevent desertification in China. Evidence from multiple sources has confirmed increases in vegetation growth in the BTSSCP region since the initiation of the project. Precipitation and related soil moisture conditions typically are considered to be the main drivers of vegetation growth in this arid region. However, by investigating the relationships between vegetation growth and corresponding climatic factors, we identified seasonal variation in the climatic constraints of vegetation growth. In spring, vegetation growth is stimulated mainly by elevated temperature, whereas precipitation is the lead driver of summer greening. In autumn, positive effects of both temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were observed. Furthermore, strong biosphere-atmosphere interactions were observed in this region. Spring warming promotes vegetation growth, but also reduces soil moisture. Summer greening has a strong cooling effect on land surface temperature. These results indicate that 1) precipitation-based projections of vegetation growth may be misleading; and 2) the ecological and environment consequences of ecological projects should be comprehensively evaluated. KEYWORDS: vegetation growth, climatic drivers, seasonal variation, BTSSCP
High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician
Porada, Philipp; Lenton, Tim; Pohl, Alexandre; Weber, Bettina; Mander, Luke; Donnadieu, Yannick; Beer, Christian; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel
2017-04-01
Early non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician may have strongly increased chemical weathering rates of surface rocks at the global scale. This could have led to a drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and, consequently, a decrease in global temperature and an interval of glaciations. Under current climatic conditions, usually field or laboratory experiments are used to quantify enhancement of chemical weathering rates by non-vascular vegetation. However, these experiments are constrained to a small spatial scale and a limited number of species. This complicates the extrapolation to the global scale, even more so for the geological past, where physiological properties of non-vascular vegetation may have differed from current species. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate large-scale chemical weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. For this purpose, we use a process-based model of lichens and bryophytes, since these organisms are probably the closest living analogue to Late Ordovician vegetation. The model explicitly represents multiple physiological strategies, which enables the simulated vegetation to adapt to Ordovician climatic conditions. We estimate productivity of Ordovician vegetation with the model, and relate it to chemical weathering by assuming that the organisms dissolve rocks to extract phosphorus for the production of new biomass. Thereby we account for limits on weathering due to reduced supply of unweathered rock material in shallow regions, as well as decreased transport capacity of runoff for dissolved weathered material in dry areas. We simulate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 km3 (rock) per year, which we define as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. Our estimate is around 3 times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Furthermore, chemical weathering rates simulated by our model are highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration, which implies
Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.
2012-12-01
We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical
Improvement of greenhouse design and climate control in mediterranean conditions
Tuzel, Yuksel; Zwart, de Feije; Sapounas, A.; Hemming, Silke; Stanghellini, Cecilia
2017-01-01
The Mediterranean Region is one of the most important areas of the world in terms of protected cultivation. Turkey, with its increasing greenhouse area, is one of the representative countries of the region. Thanks to the mild winter climatic conditions, cultivation of vegetables under simple
Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability
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Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)
2008-06-15
The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Valeria Soledad Duval
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The study of vegetation from the Geography perspective focuses on the analysis of the spatial distribution and on the factors affecting it. One of these factors is the climate, which determines the characteristics of the vegetation and, on a larger scale, of the communities. The aim of this paper is to analyze the climate-vegetation relationship by studying adaptations of the jarillal community regarding the semiarid climate in the Lihué Calel National Park, Argentina. Therefore, this contribution is concerned with the knowledge of the characteristics of the environment in order to understand how vegetation responds to certain phenomena, so management of protected areas will be more suitable. Lihué Calel National Park is a national protected area located in the south-center of La Pampa province, Argentina. According to Cabrera (1976 the area belongs to the floristic province of “monte” and the climate is warm and dry. In the interest to achieve the goals of this paper, Thornthwaite and Mather´s water balance was done. The data was collected from a weather station that belongs to the national park, for the period 1995-2010. Emberger›s pluviothermic coefficient, Lang´s rainfall index, De Martonne´s aridity index and Currey´s continentality index were analyzed. In addition, ten stands or plots of vegetation were placed to determine the floristic composition and the vegetation physiognomy. Then, plants species were identified as individuals and their adaptive responses were also analyzed. In conclusion, the survey verified that semi-arid climate conditions determine the morphology and the appearance of jarillal. Climate analysis shows that for the period 1995-2010 the average annual temperature is 16.2° C and reveals that thermal summers and winters are well differentiated. Large water deficit is defined, because water balance indicates that the evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during every month of the year. According to
Biocrust spectral response as affected by changing climatic conditions
Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Guirado, Emilio; Escribano, Paula; Reyes, Andres; Weber, Bettina
2017-04-01
Drylands are characterized by scarce vegetation coverage and low rates of biological activity, both constrained by water scarcity. Under these conditions, biocrusts form key players of ecosystem functioning. They comprise complex poikilohydric communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens and bryophytes together with heterotrophic bacteria, archaea and fungi, which cover the uppermost soil layer. Biocrusts can cope with prolonged phases of drought, being rapidly re-activated when water becomes available again. Upon reactivation, biocrusts almost immediately turn green, fixing atmospheric carbon and nitrogen and increasing ecosystem productivity. However, due to their inconspicuous growth they have only rarely been analysed and spatially and temporally continuous information on their response to water pulses is missing. These data are particularly important under changing climatic conditions predicting an increase in aridity and variations in precipitation patterns within most of the dryland regions. In the present study, we used multi-temporal series of NDVI obtained from LANDSAT images to analyze biocrust and vegetation response to water pulses within the South African Succulent Karoo and we predicted their future response under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that biocrust and vegetation greenness are controlled by aridity, solar radiation and soil water content, showing similar annual patterns, with minimum values during dry periods that increased within the rainy season and decreased again after the onset of drought. However, biocrusts responded faster to water availability and turned green almost immediately after small rains, producing a small NDVI peak only few days after rainfall, whereas more time was needed for vegetation to grow new green tissue. However, once the photosynthetic tissue of vegetation was restored, it caused the highest increase of NDVI values after the rain. Predicted changes in precipitation patterns and aridity
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vinet, J.
2000-11-01
In summer, temperatures in cities may rise, thereby inducing the so-called 'urban heat island' and tremendous consequences on outdoor comfort, health risks, pollutant emission and energy consumption. Replacing vegetation and moist surfaces by concrete or asphalt may enhance these problems. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to quantify the impact of vegetation and water on urban micro-climate and comfort through numerical modelling; In the first part, a scientific literature review considers various topics applied to our problem such as urban micro-climate, simulations, urbanism, urban forestry and outdoor thermal comfort. This information is relevant to define and interpret further numerical modelling. Numerical simulations based on the coupling of the SOLENE. thermal program and the N3S CFD code are proposed to model wind flow, air and surface temperatures. The theoretical principles, hypothesis and coupling methodology are presented here. This set of numerical tools is combined in order to help urban or landscape planners, architects and engineers, to analyse the impacts of different projects on micro-climate and on outdoor thermal comfort, under hot summer conditions. To illustrate this approach, an open space in Montpellier (southern France) called the 'Place du Millenaire' and designed by Ricardo Bofill is studied, considering various cases (no vegetation, actual vegetation and vegetation in 30 years). The comparative results demonstrate improvements of urban form, micro-climate and outdoor thermal comfort. (author)
Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.
2012-07-01
The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP) is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP) climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period. In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this time period. Further
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Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Chaobin; Wang, Zhaoqi; Chen, Yizhao; Gang, Chengcheng [School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Xianlin Road 163, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210046 (China); An, Ru [School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Xikang Road 129, Nanjing, 210098 (China); Li, Jianlong, E-mail: lijianlongnju@163.com [School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Xianlin Road 163, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210046 (China)
2016-09-01
The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance to the ecological security of China, has undergone climate changes and a shift in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. To reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics and calculate the contributions of driving factors in the TRSR across different periods from 1982 to 2012, net primary productivity (NPP) estimated using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model was used to assess the status of vegetation. The actual effects of different climatic variation trends on interannual variation in NPP were analyzed. Furthermore, the relationships of NPP with different climate factors and human activities were analyzed quantitatively. Results showed the following: from 1982 to 2012, the average NPP in the study area was 187.37 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −1}. The average NPP exhibited a fluctuation but presented a generally increasing trend over the 31-year study period, with an increase rate of 1.31 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}. During the entire study period, the average contributions of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation to NPP interannual variation over the entire region were 0.58, 0.73, and 0.09 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}, respectively. Radiation was the climate factor with the greatest influence on NPP interannual variation. The factor that restricted NPP increase changed from temperature and radiation to precipitation. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP interannual variation were 1.40 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2} and − 0.08 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}, respectively. From 1982 to 2000, the general climate conditions were favorable to vegetation recovery, whereas human activities had a weaker negative impact on vegetation growth. From 2001 to 2012, climate conditions began to have a negative impact on vegetation growth, whereas human activities made a favorable impact on vegetation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Chaobin; Wang, Zhaoqi; Chen, Yizhao; Gang, Chengcheng; An, Ru; Li, Jianlong
2016-01-01
The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance to the ecological security of China, has undergone climate changes and a shift in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. To reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics and calculate the contributions of driving factors in the TRSR across different periods from 1982 to 2012, net primary productivity (NPP) estimated using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model was used to assess the status of vegetation. The actual effects of different climatic variation trends on interannual variation in NPP were analyzed. Furthermore, the relationships of NPP with different climate factors and human activities were analyzed quantitatively. Results showed the following: from 1982 to 2012, the average NPP in the study area was 187.37 g cm"−"2 yr"−"1. The average NPP exhibited a fluctuation but presented a generally increasing trend over the 31-year study period, with an increase rate of 1.31 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2. During the entire study period, the average contributions of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation to NPP interannual variation over the entire region were 0.58, 0.73, and 0.09 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2, respectively. Radiation was the climate factor with the greatest influence on NPP interannual variation. The factor that restricted NPP increase changed from temperature and radiation to precipitation. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP interannual variation were 1.40 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2 and − 0.08 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2, respectively. From 1982 to 2000, the general climate conditions were favorable to vegetation recovery, whereas human activities had a weaker negative impact on vegetation growth. From 2001 to 2012, climate conditions began to have a negative impact on vegetation growth, whereas human activities made a favorable impact on vegetation recovery. - Highlights: • Partitioned the
Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo
2012-01-01
Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.
Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he
2011-04-01
Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.
Vegetation response to climate change : implications for Canada's conservation lands
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scott, D.; Lemieux, C.
2003-01-01
Studies have shown that Canada's national parks are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A wide range of biophysical climate change impacts could affect the integrity of conservation lands in each region of Canada. This report examines the potential impact of climate change on landscape alterations and vegetation distribution in Canada's wide network of conservation lands. It also presents several ways to integrate climate change into existing conservation policy and adaptation strategies. Canada's conservation lands include provincial parks, migratory bird sanctuaries, national wildlife areas and wildlife protected areas. This is the first study to examine biome changes by applying an equilibrium Global Vegetation Model (GVM) to Canada's network of national park systems. Some of the policy and planning challenges posed by changes in landscape level vegetation were also addressed. The report indicates that in terms of potential changes to the biome classification of Canada's national forests, more northern biomes are projected to decrease. These northern biomes include the tundra, taiga and boreal conifer forests. 56 refs., 8 tabs., 6 figs
Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem
2017-04-01
Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger
Disentangling the Role of Climate, Topography and Vegetation in Species Richness Gradients.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mario R Moura
Full Text Available Environmental gradients (EG related to climate, topography and vegetation are among the most important drivers of broad scale patterns of species richness. However, these different EG do not necessarily drive species richness in similar ways, potentially presenting synergistic associations when driving species richness. Understanding the synergism among EG allows us to address key questions arising from the effects of global climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Herein, we use variation partitioning (also know as commonality analysis to disentangle unique and shared contributions of different EG in explaining species richness of Neotropical vertebrates. We use three broad sets of predictors to represent the environmental variability in (i climate (annual mean temperature, temperature annual range, annual precipitation and precipitation range, (ii topography (mean elevation, range and coefficient of variation of elevation, and (iii vegetation (land cover diversity, standard deviation and range of forest canopy height. The shared contribution between two types of EG is used to quantify synergistic processes operating among EG, offering new perspectives on the causal relationships driving species richness. To account for spatially structured processes, we use Spatial EigenVector Mapping models. We perform analyses across groups with distinct dispersal abilities (amphibians, non-volant mammals, bats and birds and discuss the influence of vagility on the partitioning results. Our findings indicate that broad scale patterns of vertebrate richness are mainly affected by the synergism between climate and vegetation, followed by the unique contribution of climate. Climatic factors were relatively more important in explaining species richness of good dispersers. Most of the variation in vegetation that explains vertebrate richness is climatically structured, supporting the productivity hypothesis. Further, the weak synergism between topography and
Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.
Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid
2015-04-15
Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating
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Garcia-Haro, F. J.; Moreno, A.; Perez-Hoyos, A.; Gilabert, M. A.; Melia, J.; Belda, F.; Poquet, D.; Martinez, B.; Verger, A.
2009-07-01
Monitoring the vegetation activity over long time-scales is necessary to discern ecosystem response to climate variability. Spatial and temporally consistent estimates of the biophysical variables such as fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and leaf area index (LAI) have been obtained in the context of DULCINEA Project. We used long-term monthly climate statistics to build simple climatic indices (SPI, moisture index) at different time scales. From these indices, we estimated that the climatic disturbances affected both the growing season and the total amount of vegetation. This implies that the anomaly of vegetation cover is a good indicator of moisture condition and can be an important data source when used for detecting an monitoring drought in the Iberian Peninsula. The impact of climate variability on the vegetation dynamics has shown not to be the same for every region. We concluded that the relationships between vegetation anomaly and moisture availability are significant for the arid and semiarid areas. (Author) 6 refs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garcia-Haro, F. J.; Moreno, A.; Perez-Hoyos, A.; Gilabert, M. A.; Melia, J.; Belda, F.; Poquet, D.; Martinez, B.; Verger, A.
2009-01-01
Monitoring the vegetation activity over long time-scales is necessary to discern ecosystem response to climate variability. Spatial and temporally consistent estimates of the biophysical variables such as fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and leaf area index (LAI) have been obtained in the context of DULCINEA Project. We used long-term monthly climate statistics to build simple climatic indices (SPI, moisture index) at different time scales. From these indices, we estimated that the climatic disturbances affected both the growing season and the total amount of vegetation. This implies that the anomaly of vegetation cover is a good indicator of moisture condition and can be an important data source when used for detecting an monitoring drought in the Iberian Peninsula. The impact of climate variability on the vegetation dynamics has shown not to be the same for every region. We concluded that the relationships between vegetation anomaly and moisture availability are significant for the arid and semiarid areas. (Author) 6 refs.
Simulating sub-Milankovitch climate variations associated with vegetation dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Tuenter
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Climate variability at sub-Milankovitch periods (between 2 and 15 kyr is studied in a set of transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere/ocean/vegetation model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2. Focus is on the region influenced by the African and Asian summer monsoon. Pronounced variations at periods of about 10 kyr (Asia and Africa and about 5 kyr (Asia are found in the monsoonal runoff in response to the precessional forcing. In the model this is due to the following mechanism. For low summer insolation (precession maximum precipitation is low and desert expands at the expense of grass, while for high insolation (precession minimum precipitation is high and the tree fraction increases also reducing the grass fraction. This induces sub-Milankovitch variations in the grass fraction and associated variations in the water holding capacity of the soil. The runoff does not exhibit sub-Milankovitch variability when vegetation is kept fixed. High-latitude vegetation also exhibits sub-Milankovitch variability under both obliquity and precessional forcing. We thus hypothesize that sub-Milankovitch variability can occur due to the dynamic response of the vegetation. However, this mechanism should be further tested with more sophisticated climate/vegetation models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Romano
2011-12-01
Full Text Available We investigate the potential impact of accounting for seasonal variations in the climatic forcing and using different methods to parameterize the soil water content at field capacity on the water balance components computed by a bucket model (BM. The single-layer BM of Guswa et al. (2002 is employed, whereas the Richards equation (RE based Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model is used as a benchmark model. The results are analyzed for two differently-textured soils and for some synthetic runs under real-like seasonal weather conditions, using stochastically-generated daily rainfall data for a period of 100 years. Since transient soil-moisture dynamics and climatic seasonality play a key role in certain zones of the World, such as in Mediterranean land areas, a specific feature of this study is to test the prediction capability of the bucket model under a condition where seasonal variations in rainfall are not in phase with the variations in plant transpiration. Reference is made to a hydrologic year in which we have a rainy period (starting 1 November and lasting 151 days where vegetation is basically assumed in a dormant stage, followed by a drier and rainless period with a vegetation regrowth phase. Better agreement between BM and RE-SWAP intercomparison results are obtained when BM is parameterized by a field capacity value determined through the drainage method proposed by Romano and Santini (2002. Depending on the vegetation regrowth or dormant seasons, rainfall variability within a season results in transpiration regimes and soil moisture fluctuations with distinctive features. During the vegetation regrowth season, transpiration exerts a key control on soil water budget with respect to rainfall. During the dormant season of vegetation, the precipitation regime becomes an important climate forcing. Simulations also highlight the occurrence of bimodality in the probability distribution of soil moisture during the season when plants are
Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H.R.; Hollister, Robert D.
2012-01-01
Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations...... of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups...... to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bathiany, S. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Claussen, M. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany); Fraedrich, K. [Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany)
2012-05-15
Paleoclimatic records indicate a decline of vegetation cover in the Western Sahara at the end of the African Humid Period (about 5,500 years before present). Modelling studies have shown that this phenomenon may be interpreted as a critical transition that results from a bifurcation in the atmosphere-vegetation system. However, the stability properties of this system are closely linked to climate variability and depend on the climate model and the methods of analysis. By coupling the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, with the simple dynamic vegetation model VECODE, we assess previous methods for the detection of multiple equilibria, and demonstrate their limitations. In particular, a stability diagram can yield misleading results because of spatial interactions, and the system's steady state and its dependency on initial conditions are affected by atmospheric variability and nonlinearities. In addition, we analyse the implications of climate variability for the abruptness of a vegetation decline. We find that a vegetation collapse can happen at different locations at different times. These collapses are possible despite large and uncorrelated climate variability. Because of the nonlinear relation between vegetation dynamics and precipitation the green state is initially stabilised by the high variability. When precipitation falls below a critical threshold, the desert state is stabilised as variability is then also decreased. (orig.)
Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Shrestha, Nawal; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Tang, Zhiyao; Wang, Zhiheng
2017-01-01
Analyzing how climate change affects vegetation distribution is one of the central issues of global change ecology as this has important implications for the carbon budget of terrestrial vegetation. Mapping vegetation distribution under historical climate scenarios is essential for understanding the response of vegetation distribution to future climatic changes. The reconstructions of palaeovegetation based on pollen data provide a useful method to understand the relationship between climate and vegetation distribution. However, this method is limited in time and space. Here, using species distribution model (SDM) approaches, we explored the climatic determinants of contemporary vegetation distribution and reconstructed the distribution of Chinese vegetation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) and Middle-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP). The dynamics of vegetation distribution since the LGM reconstructed by SDMs were largely consistent with those based on pollen data, suggesting that the SDM approach is a useful tool for studying historical vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change across time and space. Comparison between the modeled contemporary potential natural vegetation distribution and the observed contemporary distribution suggests that temperate deciduous forests, subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests, temperate deciduous shrublands and temperate steppe have low range fillings and are strongly influenced by human activities. In general, the Tibetan Plateau, North and Northeast China, and the areas near the 30°N in Central and Southeast China appeared to have experienced the highest turnover in vegetation due to climate change from the LGM to the present. PMID:28426780
Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.
1998-01-01
Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.
Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.
DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J
2009-03-01
The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.
Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado
2012-01-01
Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...
Water–Soil–Vegetation Dynamic Interactions in Changing Climate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xixi Wang
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Previous studies of land degradation, topsoil erosion, and hydrologic alteration typically focus on these subjects individually, missing important interrelationships among these important aspects of the Earth’s system. However, an understanding of water–soil–vegetation dynamic interactions is needed to develop practical and effective solutions to sustain the globe’s eco-environment and grassland agriculture, which depends on grasses, legumes, and other fodder or soil-building crops. This special issue is intended to be a platform for a discussion of the relevant scientific findings based on experimental and/or modeling studies. Its 12 peer-reviewed articles present data, novel analysis/modeling approaches, and convincing results of water–soil–vegetation interactions under historical and future climates. Two of the articles examine how lake/pond water quality is related to human activity and climate. Overall, these articles can serve as important references for future studies to further advance our understanding of how water, soil, and vegetation interactively affect the health and productivity of the Earth’s ecosystem.
Greenhouse design for vegetable production in subtropical climate in Taiwan
Hemming, S.; Speetjens, S.L.; Wang, D.; Tsay, J.R.
2014-01-01
In Taiwan open field vegetable production is threatened by subtropical climatic disasters, such as high wind speeds and heavy rainfall, which can cause the destruction of whole crops. Next to that vegetable production is threatened by pests and diseases resulting a high need for pesticides.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McGuire, D.A. [Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
1995-06-01
We extrapolated 3 biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC, CENTURY, and TEM) across the continental US with the vegetation distributions of 3 biogeography models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) for contemporary climate at 355 ppmv CO{sub 2} and each of 3 GCM climate scenarios at 710 ppmv. For contemporary conditions, continental NPP ranges from 3132 to 3854 TgC/yr and total carbon storage ranges from 109 to 125 PgC. The responses of NPP range from no response (BIOME-BGC with DOLY or MAPSS vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 53% and 56% (TEM with BIOME2 vegetations for GFDL and OSU climates). The responses of total carbon storage vary from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to increases of 52% and 56% (TEM with BIOME2 vegetations for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are caused by both decreased forest area (from 44% to 38%) and photosynthetic water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with BIOME2 vegetations are caused by forest expansion (from 46% to 67% for OSU and to 75% for GFDL) and increased nitrogen cycling.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.
2015-01-01
Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...
Chang, F.; Liu, W.; Zhou, H.; Ning, T.; Wang, Y.
2017-12-01
The Jinghe River is a second-order tributary of the Yellow River, and located in the middle-south part of the Loess Plateau. The watershed area is 45421km², with the mean annual precipitation (P) being about 508mm and aridity index 2.09. For a long time, soil and water loss in this watershed is severe, resulting in very fragile ecological environment. The GIMMS-normalized vegetation index NDVI is used to reflect condition of vegetation cover, and P and Penman potential evapotranspiration (ET) to represent climate water and heat conditions. The annual actual ET is estimated as the difference between P and runoff (ignoring the change of watershed water storage during each hydrological year, May to April of the following year). These concepts were introduced to discuss the dynamic characteristics of vegetation cover and its response to climate change. Results showed that the mean annual NDVI value was 0.51, showing a stable increasing trend from 2000 with an annual increasing rate of 8.7×10¯³. This result is consistent with the implementation of the project that converts farmland to forests and grassland and has achieved remarkable success in the Loess Plateau since 1999. It also indicates that the positive impact of human activity has been strengthened under the background of climate change. From 1982 to 2012, the annual actual ET was 464mm, accounting for 93.6% of annual P over the same period. The NDVI value of main growing season (5-9 months) is significantly correlated with annual P and annual humid index (ratio of annual P to annual potential ET). Vegetation water consumption is the main part of land surface ET, and the relationship between annual actual ET and NDVI value over the same period is also significant. The NDVI value, P and potential ET variation varied substantially within the Jinghe River watershed, and their relationships in different regions at an inter-annual scale are different. Currently, we are investigating the influence of the changes in
Millar, David J.; Cooper, David J.; Ronayne, Michael J.
2018-06-01
Hydrological dynamics act as a primary control on ecosystem function in mountain peatlands, serving as an important regulator of carbon fluxes. In western North America, mountain peatlands exist in different hydrogeological settings, across a range climatic conditions, and vary in floristic composition. The sustainability of these ecosystems, particularly those at the low end of their known elevation range, is susceptible to a changing climate via changes in the water cycle. We conducted a hydrological investigation of two mountain peatlands, with differing vegetation, hydrogeological setting (sloping vs basin), and climate (strong vs weak monsoon influence). Growing season saturated zone water budgets were modeled on a daily basis, and subsurface flow characterizations were performed during multiple field campaigns at each site. The sloping peatland expectedly showed a strong lateral groundwater potential gradient throughout the growing season. Alternatively, the basin peatland had low lateral gradients but more pronounced vertical gradients. A zero-flux plane was apparent at a depth of approximately 50 cm below the peat surface at the basin peatland; shallow groundwater above this depth moved upward towards the surface via evapotranspiration. The differences in groundwater flow dynamics between the two sites also influenced water budgets. Higher groundwater inflow at the sloping peatland offset higher rates of evapotranspiration losses from the saturated zone, which were apparently driven by differences in vegetative cover. This research revealed that although sloping peatlands cover relatively small portions of mountain watersheds, they provide unique settings where vegetation directly utilizes groundwater for transpiration, which were several-fold higher than typically reported for surrounding uplands.
Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.
2017-12-01
Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to
Change in Vegetation Growth and Its Feedback to Climate in the Tibet Plateau
Piao, S.
2015-12-01
Vegetation growth is strongly influenced by climate and climate change and can affect the climate system through a number of bio-physical processes. As a result, monitoring, understanding and predicting the response of vegetation growth to global change has been a central activity in Earth system science during the past two decades. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced a pronounced warming over recent decades. The warming rate of the TP over the period 1960-2009 was about twice the global average warming rate, yet with heterogeneous patterns. In this study, we use satellite derived NDVI data to investigate spatio-temporal change in vegetation growth over the last three decades.
Increasing of Urban Radiation due to Climate Change and Reduction Strategy using Vegetation
Park, C.; Lee, D.; Heo, H. K.; Ahn, S.
2017-12-01
Urban Heat Island (UHI) which means urban air temperature is higher than suburban area is one of the most important environmental issues in Urban. High density of buildings and high ratio of impervious surfaces increases the radiation fluxes in urban canopy. Furthermore, climate change is expected to make UHI even more seriously in the future. Increased irradiation and air temperature cause high amount of short wave and long wave radiation, respectively. This increases net radiation negatively affects heat condition of pedestrian. UHI threatens citizen's health by increasing violence and heat related diseases. For this reason, understanding how much urban radiation will increase in the future, and exploring radiation reduction strategies is important for reducing UHI. In this research, we aim to reveal how the radiation flux in the urban canyon will change as the climate change and determine how much of urban vegetation will be needed to cover this degradation. The study area is a commercial district in Seoul where highly populated area. Due to the high density of buildings and lack of urban vegetation, this area has a poor thermal condition in summer. In this research, we simulate the radiation flux on the ground using multi-layer urban canopy model. Unlike conventionally used urban canopy model to simulate radiation transfer using vertically single layer, the multi-layer model we used here, enables to consider the vertical heterogeneous of buildings and urban vegetation. As a result, net radiation of urban ground will be increase 2.1 W/m² in the 2050s and 2.7 W/m² in the 2100s. And to prevent the increase of radiation, it is revealed that the urban vegetation should by increased by 10%. This research will be valuable in establishing greening planning as a strategy to reduce UHI effect.
Impacts of Vegetation and Urban planning on micro climate in Hashtgerd new Town
Sodoudi, Sahar; langer, Ines; Cubasch, Ulrich
2013-04-01
One of the objectives of climatological part of project Young Cities 'Developing Energy-Efficient Urban Fabric in the Tehran-Karaj Region' is to simulate the micro climate (with 1m resolution) in 35ha of new town Hashtgerd, which is located 65 km far from mega city Tehran. The Project aims are developing, implementing and evaluating building and planning schemes and technologies which allow to plan and build sustainable, energy-efficient and climate sensible form mass housing settlements in arid and semi-arid regions ("energy-efficient fabric"). Climate sensitive form also means designing and planning for climate change and its related effects for Hashtgerd New Town. By configuration of buildings and open spaces according to solar radiation, wind and vegetation, climate sensitive urban form can create outdoor thermal comfort. To simulate the climate on small spatial scales, the micro climate model Envi-met has been used to simulate the micro climate in 35 ha. The Eulerian model ENVI-met is a micro-scale climate model which gives information about the influence of architecture and buildings as well as vegetation and green area on the micro climate up to 1 m resolution. Envi-met has been run with information from topography, downscaled climate data with neuro-fuzzy method, meteorological measurements, building height and different vegetation variants (low and high number of trees) Through the optimal Urban Design and Planning for the 35ha area the microclimate results shows, that with vegetation the microclimate in street canopies will be change: • 2 m temperature is decreased by about 2 K • relative humidity increase by about 10 % • soil temperature is decreased by about 3 K • wind speed is decreased by about 60% The style of buildings allows free movement of air, which is of high importance for fresh air supply. The increase of inbuilt areas in 35 ha reduces the heat island effect through cooling caused by vegetation and increase of air humidity which
Kim, J. B.; Pitts, B.
2013-12-01
MC1 dynamic global vegetation model simulates vegetation response to climate change by simulating vegetation production, soil biogeochemistry, plant biogeography and fire. It has been applied at a wide range of spatial scales, yet the spatio-temporal patterns of simulated vegetation production, which drives the model's response to climate change, has not been examined in detail. We ran MC1 for California at a relatively fine scale, 30 arc-seconds, for the historical period (1895-2006) and for the future (2007-2100), using downscaled data from four CMIP3-based climate projections: A2 and B1 GHG emissions scenarios simulated by PCM and GFDL GCMs. The use of these four climate projections aligns our work with a body of climate change research work commissioned by the California Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. The four climate projections vary not only in terms of changes in their annual means, but in the seasonality of projected climate change. We calibrated MC1 using MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011 as a guide, and adapting a published technique for adjusting simulated vegetation production by increasing the simulated plant rooting depths. We evaluated the simulation results by comparing the model output for the historical period with several benchmark datasets, summarizing by EPA Level 3 Ecoregions. Multi-year summary statistics of model predictions compare moderately well with Kuchler's potential natural vegetation map, National Biomass and Carbon Dataset, Leenhouts' compilation of fire return intervals, and, of course, the MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011. When we compared MC1's monthly NPP values with MODIS monthly GPP data (2000-2011), however, the seasonal patterns compared very poorly, with NPP/GPP ratio for spring (Mar-Apr-May) often exceeding 1, and the NPP/GPP ratio for summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) often flattening to zero. This suggests MC1's vegetation production algorithms are overly biased for spring production at the cost of summer production. We
Dynamics of climatic characteristics influencing vegetation in Siberia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shulgina, Tamara M; Genina, Elena Yu; Gordov, Evgeny P
2011-01-01
The spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics of surface air temperature and precipitation and those bioclimatic indices that are based upon factors which control vegetation cover are investigated. Surface air temperature and precipitation data are retrieved from the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA datasets, respectively, which were found to be the closest to the observational data. We created an archive of bioclimatic indices for further detailed studies of interrelations between local climate and vegetation cover changes, which include carbon uptake changes related to changes of vegetation types and amount, as well as with spatial shifts of vegetation zones. Meanwhile, analysis reveals significant positive trends of the growing season length accompanied by a statistically significant increase of the sums of the growing degree days and precipitation over the south of West Siberia. The trends hint at a tendency for an increase of vegetation ecosystems' productivity across the south of West Siberia (55°–60°N, 59°–84°E) in the past several decades and (if sustained) may lead to a future increase of vegetation productivity in this region.
Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga
2016-01-01
Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kicklighter, D W; Melillo, J M; Lu, X; Cai, Y; Paltsev, S; Sokolov, A P; Reilly, J M; Zhuang, Q; Parfenova, E I; Tchebakova, N M
2014-01-01
Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region’s landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies. (paper)
Tang, A.M.; Hughes, P.N.; Dijkstra, T.A.; Askarinejad, A.; Brenčič, M.; Cui, Y.J.; Diez, J.J.; Firgi, T.; Gajewska, B.; Gentile, F.; Grossi, G.; Jommi, C.; Kehagia, F.; Koda, E.; Maat, Ter H.W.; Lenart, S.; Lourenco, S.; Oliveira, M.; Osinski, P.; Springman, S.M.; Stirling, R.; Toll, D.G.; Beek, Van V.
2018-01-01
In assessing the impact of climate change on infrastructure, it is essential to consider the interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and the near-surface soil. This paper presents an overview of these processes, focusing on recent advances from the literature and those made by members of
Climate is a key driver regulating vegetation structure across rural ecosystems. In urban ecosystems, multiple interactions between humans and the environment can have homogenizing influences, confounding the relationship between vegetation structure and climate. In fact, vegetat...
Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Klein, Petra M., E-mail: pkklein@ou.edu [School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Coffman, Reid, E-mail: rcoffma4@kent.edu [College of Architecture and Environmental Design, Kent State University, Kent, OH (United States)
2015-04-15
Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April–October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating
Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klein, Petra M.; Coffman, Reid
2015-01-01
Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April–October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pessenda, L.C.R.; Gouveia, S.E.M; Aravena, R; Boulet, R; Bendassolli, J.A
2001-01-01
The use of carbon isotopes in studies of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics have been applied to infer information about vegetation and climate changes during the late Quaternary (Schwartz et al., 1986; Pessenda et al., 1996). This approach had also been used in different areas in Brazil to document vegetation changes during the Holocene (Desjardins et al., 1996; Gouveia et al., 1997; Pessenda et al., 1998a, b, 2001) and late Pleistocene/Holocene (Freitas et al., 2001). The application of carbon isotopes is based on the different 13 C composition of C 3 and C 4 plants and its preservation in SOM. 13 C values of C 3 plant species range from approximately -32% o to -20% o PDB, with a mean of -27% o . In contrast, δ 13 C of C 4 species range from -17% o to -9% o with mean of -13% o . Thus, C 3 and C 4 plant species have distinct δ 13 C values and differ from each other by approximately 14% o (Boutton, 1991). The study of charcoal fragments found in sediments and soils also supplies information about climatic conditions. Charcoal distribution in the soil profiles can provide information about the occurrence of paleofires (Pessenda et al., 1996), possibly associated with drier climate periods and/or human disturbance. In this paper we report δ 13 C data of soil and 14 C dates on charcoal from five soil profiles collected under natural vegetation in the Parana and Sao Paulo states, southeastern Brazil. Carbon isotopes are used to evaluate vegetation changes during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Charcoal distribution in the soil and its dating are used to infer linkage between forest fires and climate changes and to establish the chronology (au)
Vegetation response to climate change : implications for Canada's conservation lands
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Scott, D. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Adaptation and Impact Research Group; Lemieux, C. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography
2003-05-01
Studies have shown that Canada's national parks are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A wide range of biophysical climate change impacts could affect the integrity of conservation lands in each region of Canada. This report examines the potential impact of climate change on landscape alterations and vegetation distribution in Canada's wide network of conservation lands. It also presents several ways to integrate climate change into existing conservation policy and adaptation strategies. Canada's conservation lands include provincial parks, migratory bird sanctuaries, national wildlife areas and wildlife protected areas. This is the first study to examine biome changes by applying an equilibrium Global Vegetation Model (GVM) to Canada's network of national park systems. Some of the policy and planning challenges posed by changes in landscape level vegetation were also addressed. The report indicates that in terms of potential changes to the biome classification of Canada's national forests, more northern biomes are projected to decrease. These northern biomes include the tundra, taiga and boreal conifer forests. 56 refs., 8 tabs., 6 figs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gutierrez Rey, Hilda Jeanneth
2002-01-01
This technical paper summarizes the gradual thesis Approach to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetation covers in Colombia in face of a possible global climate change (Gutierrez, 2001). It present the methodologies and results of the construction of a prospective model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) for evaluating the vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia, in face of a possible global climate chance. The analysis of the vulnerability of the possible impact on vegetation and for identification of its vulnerability as a consequence of climate change was carried out by application of the method of direct function establishing, recommended by IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1999). An analysis of the displacement of Life Zones of Holdridge was made under a scenario with duplication of the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and identified vegetation affected by displacement. These results were adjusted to the bioclimatic and biogeographic conditions of the country. The Model of Vulnerability of the Vegetation Covers of Colombia was developed in Spatial Modeler Language, of Arc/lnfo and Erdas Imagine. This model is able to generate the spatial distribution of the climatic variables and Bioclimatic Units, under past, present and future climate scenarios, as well as to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia in face a climatic change. For the improvement of the model of Vulnerability, specially the intermediate products, it was subdivided in three Phases or Subsystems: In the First Phase or Present Subsystem, the sub models generate a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a currently scenario of Climatic Line Base 1961-1990. In the Second Phase or Subsystem of Climate Change, the sub models develop a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a future climate Scenario with duplication of the contained of the CO 2 in the atmosphere
Yitayew, M.; Didan, K.; Barreto-munoz, A.
2013-12-01
The Nile Basin is one of the world's water resources hotspot that is home to over 437 million people in ten riparian countries with 54% or 238 millions live directly within the basin. The basin like all other basins of the world is facing water resources challenges exacerbated by climate change and increased demand. Nowadays any water resource management action in the basin has to assess the impacts of climate change to be able to predict future water supply and also to help in the negotiation process. Presently, there is a lack of basin wide weather networks to understand sensitivity of the vegetation cover to the impacts of climate change. Vegetation plays major economic and ecological functions in the basin and provides key services ranging from pastoralism, agricultural production, firewood, habitat and food sources for the rich wildlife, as well as a major role in the carbon cycle and climate regulation of the region. Under the threat of climate change and the incessant anthropogenic pressure the distribution and services of the region's ecosystems are projected to change The goal of this work is to assess and characterize how the basin vegetation productivity, distribution, and phenology have changed over the last 30+ years and what are the key climatic drivers of this change. This work makes use of a newly generated multi-sensor long-term land surface data set about vegetation and phenology. Vegetation indices derived from remotely sensed surface reflectance data are commonly used to characterize phenology or vegetation dynamics accurately and with enough spatial and temporal resolution to support change detection. We used more than 30 years of vegetation index and growing season data from AVHRR and MODIS sensors compiled by the Vegetation Index and Phenology laboratory (VIP LAB) at the University of Arizona. Available climate data about precipitation and temperature for the corresponding 30 years period is also used for this analysis. We looked at the
Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Chapin, F. Stuart; Yi, S.; Thompson, Catharine Copass
2009-01-01
Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch (Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration (RH) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m−2·10 yr−1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kaspersen, Per; Fensholt, Rasmus; Huber Gharib, Silvia
2011-01-01
Linear trend analysis and seasonal trend analysis are performed on gridded data of vegetation, rainfall, solar radiation flux, and air temperature, in order to examine the influence of the past three decades of climate variability and change on the Sahelian vegetation dynamics. Per......-pixel correlation analyses are conducted on annual and monthly data, and analyses of change in the potential climatic constraints to the natural vegetation development from 1982–2007 are performed. The results reveal two distinct periods: (a) 1982–1994 marked by large increases in vegetation productivity...... and rainfall and little change in average air temperatures and solar radiation and (b) 1995–2007 characterized by no distinct trends in vegetation productivity and rainfall and increase in average air temperatures and decrease in solar radiation flux. Correlations between vegetation productivity and climatic...
Zhang, Hui; Piilo, Sanna R.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Charman, Dan J.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Väliranta, Minna M.
2018-02-01
Climate warming has inevitable impacts on the vegetation and hydrological dynamics of high-latitude permafrost peatlands. These impacts in turn determine the role of these peatlands in the global biogeochemical cycle. Here, we used six active layer peat cores from four permafrost peatlands in Northeast European Russia and Finnish Lapland to investigate permafrost peatland dynamics over the last millennium. Testate amoeba and plant macrofossils were used as proxies for hydrological and vegetation changes. Our results show that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Russian sites experienced short-term permafrost thawing and this induced alternating dry-wet habitat changes eventually followed by desiccation. During the Little Ice Age (LIA) both sites generally supported dry-hummock habitats, at least partly driven by permafrost aggradation. However, proxy data suggest that occasionally, MCA habitat conditions were drier than during the LIA, implying that evapotranspiration may create important additional eco-hydrological feedback mechanisms under warm conditions. All sites showed a tendency towards dry conditions as inferred from both proxies starting either from ca. 100 years ago or in the past few decades after slight permafrost thawing, suggesting that recent warming has stimulated surface desiccation rather than deeper permafrost thawing. This study shows links between two important controls over hydrology and vegetation changes in high-latitude peatlands: direct temperature-induced surface layer response and deeper permafrost layer-related dynamics. These data provide important backgrounds for predictions of Arctic permafrost peatlands and related feedback mechanisms. Our results highlight the importance of increased evapotranspiration and thus provide an additional perspective to understanding of peatland-climate feedback mechanisms.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. A. Troch
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Budyko (1974 postulated that long-term catchment water balance is controlled to first order by the available water and energy. This leads to the interesting question of how do landscape characteristics (soils, geology, vegetation and climate properties (precipitation, potential evaporation, number of wet and dry days interact at the catchment scale to produce such a simple and predictable outcome of hydrological partitioning? Here we use a physically-based hydrologic model separately parameterized in 12 US catchments across a climate gradient to decouple the impact of climate and landscape properties to gain insight into the role of climate-vegetation-soil interactions in long-term hydrologic partitioning. The 12 catchment models (with different paramterizations are subjected to the 12 different climate forcings, resulting in 144 10 yr model simulations. The results are analyzed per catchment (one catchment model subjected to 12 climates and per climate (one climate filtered by 12 different model parameterization, and compared to water balance predictions based on Budyko's hypothesis (E/P = ϕ (Ep/P; E: evaporation, P: precipitation, Ep: potential evaporation. We find significant anti-correlation between average deviations of the evaporation index (E/P computed per catchment vs. per climate, compared to that predicted by Budyko. Catchments that on average produce more E/P have developed in climates that on average produce less E/P, when compared to Budyko's prediction. Water and energy seasonality could not explain these observations, confirming previous results reported by Potter et al. (2005. Next, we analyze which model (i.e., landscape filter characteristics explain the catchment's tendency to produce more or less E/P. We find that the time scale that controls subsurface storage release explains the observed trend. This time scale combines several geomorphologic and hydraulic soil properties. Catchments with relatively longer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1985-01-01
Major changes in the climate of the Nevada Test Site have occurred during the last 45,000 years. Understanding this climate variability is important in assessing the region's suitability for permanent nuclear-waste repositories. Future climatic changes probably will occur within the time the waste materials are hazardous. The nature and magnitude of previous fluctuations indicate the nature of future climatic change that may impact on a nuclear waste repository. Reconstructions of past vegetation are used to infer climatic conditions during the past 45,000 years. Plant macrofossils from ancient packrat (Neotoma spp.) middens provide the data for these analyses. Middens can be older than 50,000 years, and they are common in the region. Each contains abundant mummified plant fossils, representing the plant species growing within about 30 meters of the site. Radiocarbon-dated midden samples provide detailed records of climate-induced vegetation change. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide within the next 500 years probably will result in a 2 0 to 3 0 C increase in annual temperature and intensified rainfall in the Nevada Test Site region. Analogs with previous glacial-interglacial cycles indicate that this ''superinterglacial'' may be no more than a relatively brief reversal in the protracted trend toward the next ice age. Current models indicate that, within the next 10,000 years, climatic conditions may be similar to those of the last glacial age
Vögeli, Natalie; Najman, Yani; van der Beek, Peter; Huyghe, Pascale; Wynn, Peter M.; Govin, Gwladys; van der Veen, Iris; Sachse, Dirk
2017-08-01
The Himalaya has a major influence on global and regional climate, in particular on the Asian monsoon system. The foreland basin of the Himalaya contains a record of tectonics and paleoclimate since the Miocene. Previous work on the evolution of vegetation and climate has focused on the central and western Himalaya, where a shift from C3 to C4 vegetation has been observed at ∼7 Ma and linked to increased seasonality, but the climatic evolution of the eastern part of the orogen is less well understood. In order to track vegetation as a marker of monsoon intensity and seasonality, we analyzed δ13 C and δ18 O values of soil carbonate and associated δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon from previously dated sedimentary sections exposing the syn-orogenic detrital Dharamsala and Siwalik Groups in the west, and, for the first time, the Siwalik Group in the east of the Himalayan foreland basin. Sedimentary records span from 20 to 1 Myr in the west (Joginder Nagar, Jawalamukhi, and Haripur Kolar sections) and from 13 to 1 Myr in the east (Kameng section), respectively. The presence of soil carbonate in the west and its absence in the east is a first indication of long-term lateral climatic variation, as soil carbonate requires seasonally arid conditions to develop. δ13 C values in soil carbonate show a shift from around -10‰ to -2‰ at ∼7 Ma in the west, which is confirmed by δ13 C analyses on bulk organic carbon that show a shift from around -23‰ to -19‰ at the same time. Such a shift in isotopic values is likely to be associated with a change from C3 to C4 vegetation. In contrast, δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon remain at ∼ - 23 ‰ in the east. Thus, our data show that the current east-west variation in climate was established at 7 Ma. We propose that the regional change towards a more seasonal climate in the west is linked to a decrease of the influence of the Westerlies, delivering less winter precipitation to the western Himalaya, while the east
O'Donnell, Frances C; Flatley, William T; Springer, Abraham E; Fulé, Peter Z
2018-06-25
Climate change and wildfire are interacting to drive vegetation change and potentially reduce water quantity and quality in the southwestern United States, Forest restoration is a management approach that could mitigate some of these negative outcomes. However, little information exists on how restoration combined with climate change might influence hydrology across large forest landscapes that incorporate multiple vegetation types and complex fire regimes. We combined spatially explicit vegetation and fire modeling with statistical water and sediment yield models for a large forested landscape (335,000 ha) on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona, USA. Our objective was to assess the impacts of climate change and forest restoration on the future fire regime, forest vegetation, and watershed outputs. Our model results predict that the combination of climate change and high-severity fire will drive forest turnover, biomass declines, and compositional change in future forests. Restoration treatments may reduce the area burned in high-severity fires and reduce conversions from forested to non-forested conditions. Even though mid-elevation forests are the targets of restoration, the treatments are expected to delay the decline of high-elevation spruce-fir, aspen, and mixed conifer forests by reducing the occurrence of high-severity fires that may spread across ecoregions. We estimate that climate-induced vegetation changes will result in annual runoff declines of up to 10%, while restoration reduced or reversed this decline. The hydrologic model suggests that mid-elevation forests, which are the targets of restoration treatments, provide around 80% of runoff in this system and the conservation of mid- to high-elevation forests types provides the greatest benefit in terms of water conservation. We also predict that restoration treatments will conserve water quality by reducing patches of high-severity fire that are associated with high sediment yield. Restoration
Emergent properties of climate-vegetation feedbacks in the North American Monsoon Macrosystem
Mathias, A.; Niu, G.; Zeng, X.
2012-12-01
The ability of ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and associated disturbances (e.g. wildfires, spread of invasive species) is greatly affected by the stability of feedback interactions between climate and vegetation. In order to study climate-vegetation interactions, such as CO2 and H2O exchange in the North American Monsoon System (NAMS), we plan to couple a community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) used in regional climate models (WRF) with an individual based, spatially explicit vegetation model (ECOTONE). Individual based modeling makes it possible to link individual plant traits with properties of plant communities. Community properties, such as species composition and species distribution arise from dynamic interactions of individual plants with each other, and with their environment. Plants interact with each other through intra- and interspecific competition for resources (H2O, nitrogen), and the outcome of these interactions depends on the properties of the plant community and the environment itself. In turn, the environment is affected by the resulting change in community structure, which may have an impact on the drivers of climate change. First, we performed sensitivity tests of ECOTONE to assess its ability to reproduce vegetation distribution in the NAMS. We compared the land surface model and ECOTONE with regard to their capability to accurately simulate soil moisture, CO2 flux and above ground biomass. For evaluating the models we used the eddy-correlation sensible and latent heat fluxes, CO2 flux and observations of other climate and environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and moisture) from the Santa Rita experimental range. The model intercomparison helped us understand the advantages and disadvantages of each model, providing us guidance for coupling the community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) with ECOTONE.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shuangshuang Li
2015-08-01
Full Text Available In recent decades, climate change has affected vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau’s Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region in central China using MODIS-NDVI data for 2000–2014. We examined the roles of regional climate change and human activities in vegetation restoration, particularly from 1999 when conversion of sloping farmland to forestland or grassland began under the national Grain-for-Green program. Our results indicated a general upward trend in average NDVI values in the study area. The region’s annual growth rate greatly exceeded those of the Three-North Shelter Forest, the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the Qinling–Daba Mountains, and the Three-River Headwater region. The green vegetation zone has been annually extending from the southeast toward the northwest, with about 97.4% of the region evidencing an upward trend in vegetation cover. The NDVI trend and fluctuation characteristics indicate the occurrence of vegetation restoration in the study region, with gradual vegetation stabilization associated with 15 years of ecological engineering projects. Under favorable climatic conditions, increasing local vegetation cover is primarily attributable to ecosystem reconstruction projects. However, our findings indicate a growing risk of vegetation degradation in the northern part of Shaanxi Province as a result of energy production facilities and chemical industry infrastructure, and increasing exploitation of mineral resources.
Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.
2007-05-01
A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km coupled with a potential vegetation model is used to simulate future vegetation distributions over South America. The coupled model, which produces an accurate representation of today's climate and vegetation, is forced with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, sea surface temperature from a global model, and scenarios of future land use practices to predict climate and vegetation distributions for the last 2 decades of the 21st century. When only climate change is considered, under a business-as-usual scenario for global emissions, the extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent by the end of this century, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward. Reductions in annual mean precipitation are widespread and rainfall becomes insufficient to support the rainforest in these regions, but some areas receive more precipitation. The length of the dry season increases in the central and southern Amazon in association with changes in the large-scale tropical circulation. Without this change in seasonality, local refugia of Amazon vegetation would be preserved and the retreat of the rainforest would be somewhat less extensive. Including various projections of future land use practices in addition to climate change may accelerate the unrecoverable demise of the rainforest and feedback to modify climate on regional space scales. The portions of the rainforest that are most vulnerable to climate change are the same as those that are under the most pressure from human activity, presenting a remarkable competition.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Olena Dubovyk
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Currently there is a lack of quantitative information regarding the driving factors of vegetation dynamics in post-Soviet Central Asia. Insufficient knowledge also exists concerning vegetation variability across sub-humid to arid climatic gradients as well as vegetation response to different land uses, from natural rangelands to intensively irrigated croplands. In this study, we analyzed the environmental drivers of vegetation dynamics in five Central Asian countries by coupling key vegetation parameter “overall greenness” derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series data, with its possible factors across various management and climatic gradients. We developed nine generalized least-squares random effect (GLS-RE models to analyze the relative impact of environmental factors on vegetation dynamics. The obtained results quantitatively indicated the extensive control of climatic factors on managed and unmanaged vegetation cover across Central Asia. The most diverse vegetation dynamics response to climatic variables was observed for “intensively managed irrigated croplands”. Almost no differences in response to these variables were detected for managed non-irrigated vegetation and unmanaged (natural vegetation across all countries. Natural vegetation and rainfed non-irrigated crop dynamics were principally associated with temperature and precipitation parameters. Variables related to temperature had the greatest relative effect on irrigated croplands and on vegetation cover within the mountainous zone. Further research should focus on incorporating the socio-economic factors discussed here in a similar analysis.
Albedo and vegetation demand-side management options for warm climates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, Darwin C.
1997-01-01
For electric utilities, demand-side management (DSM) can reduce electric load and shift load from peak to off-peak periods. In general, the investor in DSM collects the reward with lower electric bills, excepting a positive externality because of reduced tropospheric and stratospheric air pollution from fossil fuel power plants. In warm climates, DSM options include increasing albedo and vegetation, respectively, by painting surfaces white and planting trees; these DSM options are distinguished from all other DSM options because of ecosystem effects. Ambient temperature falls, mitigating the urban 'heat island', which reduces electric load and ozone formation. The investor in albedo and vegetation DSM options does not collect all of the reward from lower electric bills, since the lower ambient temperature provides savings to all customers who use electricity for air conditioning and refrigeration. Similar to other DSM options, air pollution is also reduced as a result of lower power plant emissions. Complex airshed models and electric utility system dispatch models are applied in this paper to account for some of these ecosystem effects. Unaccounted ecosystem effects remain, stymieing cost effectiveness analysis
Response of Vegetation to Climate Change in the Drylands of East Asia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dai, L; Wang, K; Wang, R L; Zhang, L
2014-01-01
Over the past 25 years, global climate and environmental changes have caused an unprecedented rate of vegetation change, as exemplified in the drylands of East Asia. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation in this region and analysed their relationship with climate data. Our results show that vegetation productivity significantly increased from 1982 to 2006. This increasing trend was observed for most of the region, particularly for northwest Mongolia and central Inner Mongolia. Grasslands, croplands, forests, and shrublands, all exhibited this trend. The annual growth rate of the grasslands determined using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was the largest observed change; reaching 0.07% p.a, followed by shrublands (0.06%), croplands (0.03%), and forests (0.02%). In the different geographic regions, the roles of temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were shown to be different. Temperature was the dominant factor for the observed NDVI increase in northwest Mongolia and the centre of Inner Mongolia. The combined influences of temperature and precipitation changes have resulted in the promotion of vegetation growth, as seen in eastern GanSu. Temperature change is the primary factor for initiating vegetation growth in spring and autumn because warmer temperatures increase the length of the growing season, and are thus evaluated as an increased NDVI value. Increased precipitation has been shown to play a positive role on vegetation growth during summer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stuart E. Marsh
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Climate change and variability are expected to impact the synchronicity and interactions between the Sonoran Desert and the forested sky islands which represent steep biological and environmental gradients. The main objectives were to examine how well satellite greenness time series data and derived phenological metrics (e.g., season start, peak greenness can characterize specific vegetation communities across an elevation gradient, and to examine the interactions between climate and phenological metrics for each vegetation community. We found that representative vegetation types (11, varying between desert scrub, mesquite, grassland, mixed oak, juniper and pine, often had unique seasonal and interannual phenological trajectories and spatial patterns. Satellite derived land surface phenometrics (11 for each of the vegetation communities along the cline showed numerous distinct significant relationships in response to temperature (4 and precipitation (7 metrics. Satellite-derived sky island vegetation phenology can help assess and monitor vegetation dynamics and provide unique indicators of climate variability and patterns of change.
Using management to address vegetation stress related to land-use and climate change
Middleton, Beth A.; Boudell, Jere; Fisichelli, Nicholas
2017-01-01
While disturbances such as fire, cutting, and grazing can be an important part of the conservation of natural lands, some adjustments to management designed to mimic natural disturbance may be necessary with ongoing and projected climate change. Stressed vegetation that is incapable of regeneration will be difficult to maintain if adults are experiencing mortality, and/or if their early life-history stages depend on disturbance. A variety of active management strategies employing disturbance are suggested, including resisting, accommodating, or directing vegetation change by manipulating management intensity and frequency. Particularly if land-use change is the main cause of vegetation stress, amelioration of these problems using management may help vegetation resist change (e.g. strategic timing of water release if a water control structure is available). Managers could direct succession by using management to push vegetation toward a new state. Despite the historical effects of management, some vegetation change will not be controllable as climates shift, and managers may have to accept some of these changes. Nevertheless, proactive measures may help managers achieve important conservation goals in the future.
Naeem, Shahid; Cao, Chunxiang; Waqar, Mirza Muhammad; Wei, Chen; Acharya, Bipin Kumar
2018-01-01
The rapid increase in urbanization due to population growth leads to the degradation of vegetation in major cities. This study investigated the spatial patterns of the ecoenvironmental conditions of inhabitants of two distinct Asian capital cities, Beijing of China and Islamabad of Pakistan, by utilizing Earth observation data products. The significance of urban vegetation for the cooling effect was studied in local climate zones, i.e., urban, suburban, and rural areas within 1-km2 quantiles. Landsat-8 (OLI) and Gaofen-1 satellite imagery were used to assess vegetation cover and land surface temperature, while population datasets were used to evaluate environmental impact. Comparatively, a higher cooling effect of vegetation presence was observed in rural and suburban zones of Beijing as compared to Islamabad, while the urban zone of Islamabad was found comparatively cooler than Beijing's urban zone. The urban thermal field variance index calculated from satellite imagery was ranked into the ecological evaluation index. The worst ecoenvironmental conditions were found in urban zones of both cities where the fraction of vegetation is very low. Meanwhile, this condition is more serious in Beijing, as more than 90% of the total population is living under the worst ecoenvironment conditions, while only 7% of the population is enjoying comfortable conditions. Ecoenvironmental conditions of Islamabad are comparatively better than Beijing where ˜61% of the total population live under the worst ecoenvironmental conditions, and ˜24% are living under good conditions. Thus, Islamabad at this early growth stage can learn from Beijing's ecoenvironmental conditions to improve the quality of living by controlling the associated factors in the future.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. van Huissteden
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4 concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox, vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax, plant transport rate (Vtransp, maximum rooting depth (Zroot and root exudation rate (fex. Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming
Berrittella, C.; van Huissteden, J.
2011-10-01
Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG) wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox), vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax), plant transport rate (Vtransp), maximum rooting depth (Zroot) and root exudation rate (fex). Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming dominance of
Effects of projected climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, USA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Becky K. Kerns
2018-04-01
Full Text Available We used autecological, paleoecological, and modeling information to explore the potential effects of climate change on vegetation in the Blue Mountains ecoregion, Oregon (USA. Although uncertainty exists about the exact nature of future vegetation change, we infer that the following are likely to occur by the end of the century: (1 dominance of ponderosa pine and sagebrush will increase in many locations, (2 the forest-steppe ecotone will move upward in latitude and elevation, (3 ponderosa pine will be distributed at higher elevations, (4 subalpine and alpine systems will be replaced by grass species, pine, and Douglas-fir, (5 moist forest types may increase under wetter scenarios, (6 the distribution and abundance of juniper woodlands may decrease if the frequency and extent of wildfire increase, and (7 grasslands and shrublands will increase at lower elevations. Tree growth in energy-limited landscapes (high elevations, north aspects will increase as the climate warms and snowpack decreases, whereas tree growth in water-limited landscapes (low elevations, south aspects will decrease. Ecological disturbances, including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and non-native species, which are expected to increase in a warmer climate, will affect species distribution, tree age, and vegetation structure, facilitating transitions to new combinations of species and vegetation patterns. In dry forests where fire has not occurred for several decades, crown fires may result in high tree mortality, and the interaction of multiple disturbances and stressors will probably exacerbate stress complexes. Increased disturbance will favor species with physiological and phenological traits that allow them to tolerate frequent disturbance. Keywords: Climate change, Disturbance, Vegetation, Wildfire
Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: a model-data comparison
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D. Handiani
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial. We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions.
Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America.
The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote
Fisher, Jeremy Isaac
Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat
Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.
Jonathan. Thompson
2005-01-01
Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how Californiaâs environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...
Ritson, Jonathan P; Bell, Michael; Graham, Nigel J D; Templeton, Michael R; Brazier, Richard E; Verhoef, Anne; Freeman, Chris; Clark, Joanna M
2014-12-15
Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Yao, Yi-Feng; Li, Xiao; Jiang, Hong-En; Ferguson, David K; Hueber, Francis; Ghosh, Ruby; Bera, Subir; Li, Cheng-Sen
2012-01-01
It is demonstrated that palynomorphs can occur in fired ancient potsherds when the firing temperature was under 350°C. Pollen and phytoliths recovered from incompletely fired and fully fired potsherds (ca. 2700 yrs BP) from the Yanghai Tombs, Turpan, Xinjiang, NW China can be used as potential indicators for reconstructing past vegetation and corresponding climate in the area. The results show a higher rate of recovery of pollen and phytoliths from incompletely fired potsherds than from fully fired ones. Charred phytoliths recovered from both fully fired and incompletely fired potsherds prove that degree and condition of firing result in a permanent change in phytolith color. The palynological data, together with previous data of macrobotanical remains from the Yanghai Tombs, suggest that temperate vegetation and arid climatic conditions dominated in the area ca. 2700 yrs BP.
A, Duo; Zhao, Wenji; Qu, Xinyuan; Jing, Ran; Xiong, Kai
2016-12-01
Global climate change has led to significant vegetation changes in the past half century. North China Plain, the most important grain production base of china, is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying. The vegetation coverage, which is used to monitor vegetation change, can respond to climate change (temperature and precipitation). In this study, GIMMS (Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies)-NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) - NDVI data and climate data, during 1981-2013, were used to investigate the spatial distribution and changes of vegetation. The relationship between climate and vegetation on different spatial (agriculture, forest and grassland) and temporal (yearly, decadal and monthly) scales were also analyzed in North China Plain. (1) It was found that temperature exhibiting a slight increase trend (0.20 °C/10a, P 0.05). The climate mutation period was during 1991-1994. (2) Vegetation coverage slight increase was observed in the 55% of total study area, with a change rate of 0.00039/10a. Human activities may not only accelerate the changes of the vegetation coverage, but also c effect to the rate of these changes. (3) Overall, the correlation between the vegetation coverage and climatic factor is higher in monthly scale than yearly scale. The correlation analysis between vegetation coverage and climate changes showed that annual vegetation coverage was better correlatend with precipitation in grassland biome; but it showed a better correlated with temperature i the agriculture biome and forest biome. In addition, the vegetation coverage had sensitive time-effect respond to precipitation. (4) The vegetation coverage showed the same increasing trend before and after the climatic variations, but the rate of increase slowed down. From the vegetation coverage point of view, the grassland ecological zone had an obvious response to the climatic variations, but the
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John B. Kim
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model
Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi
2013-01-01
Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zoran, M.; Stefan, S.
2007-01-01
Climate-induced changes at the land surface may in turn feed back on the climate itself through changes in soil moisture, vegetation, radiative characteristics, and surface-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor. Thresholding based on biophysical variables derived from time trajectories of satellite data is a new approach to classifying forest land cover via remote . sensing .The input data are composite values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Classification accuracies are function of the class, comparison method and season of the year. The aim of the paper is forest biomass assessment and land-cover changes analysis due to climatic effects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Valolahti, Hanna Maritta
The role of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) affecting Earths’ climate system is one of the greatest uncertainties when modelling the global climate change. BVOCs presence in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms when they involve atmospheric...... chemistry and physics. Vegetation is the main source of BVOCs. Their production is directly linked to temperature and the foliar biomass. On global scale, vegetation in subarctic and arctic regions has been modeled to have only minor contribution to annual total BVOC emissions. In these regions cold...... temperature has been regulating annual plant biomass production, but ongoing global warming is more pronounced in these regions than what the global average is. This may increase the importance of subarctic and arctic vegetation as a source of BVOC emissions in near future. This thesis aims to increase...
The fire-vegetation-climate system: how ecology can contribute to earth system science
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Archibald, S
2013-05-01
Full Text Available and future state of global vegetation. A key complexity that is currently not well captured by Earth System models is that vegetation is not always deterministically responsive to climate and soils. Feedbacks within the Earth System, top-down controls...
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Antonius G T Schut
Full Text Available Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR. However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR data and Red Green and Blue (RGB imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8 and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2 of 0.8-0.9 allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented
The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E [V N Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 (Russian Federation); Soja, A J, E-mail: ncheby@forest.akadem.r, E-mail: Amber.J.Soja@nasa.go [National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Sciences, 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199 (United States)
2009-10-15
Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.
Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation
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A. Arneth
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their
A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale
Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki
2011-11-01
The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.
Inbar, Assaf; Nyman, Petter; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary
2016-04-01
Water and radiation are unevenly distributed across the landscape due to variations in topography, which in turn causes water availability differences on the terrain according to elevation and aspect orientation. These differences in water availability can cause differential distribution of vegetation types and indirectly influence the development of soil and even landform, as expressed in hillslope asymmetry. While most of the research on the effects of climate on the vegetation and soil development and landscape evolution has been concentrated in drier semi-arid areas, temperate forested areas has been poorly studied, particularly in South Eastern Australia. This study uses soil profile descriptions and data on soil depth and landform across climatic gradients to explore the degrees to which coevolution of vegetation, soils and landform are controlled by radiative forcing and rainfall. Soil depth measurements were made on polar and equatorial facing hillslopes located at 3 sites along a climatic gradient (mean annual rainfall between 700 - 1800 mm yr-1) in the Victorian Highlands, where forest types range from dry open woodland to closed temperate rainforest. Profile descriptions were taken from soil pits dag on planar hillslopes (50 m from ridge), and samples were taken from each horizon for physical and chemical properties analysis. Hillslope asymmetry in different precipitation regimes of the study region was quantified from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). Significant vegetation differences between aspects were noted in lower and intermediate rainfall sites, where polar facing aspects expressed higher overall biomass than the drier equatorial slope. Within the study domain, soil depth was strongly correlated with forest type and above ground biomass. Soil depths and chemical properties varied between topographic aspects and along the precipitation gradient, where wetter conditions facilitate deeper and more weathered soils. Furthermore, soil depths showed
Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A
2012-02-01
Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
Shao, Huai-Yong; Wu, Jin-Hui; Liu, Meng; Yang, Wu-Nian
2014-01-01
It is an important research area to quantitatively studying the relationship between global climatic change and vegetation change based on the remote sensing technology. Panxi area is the ecological barrier of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and it is essential for the stability of the ecological environment of Sichuan as well as that of the whole China. The present article analyzes the vegetation change in 2001-2008 and the relationship between vegetation change and climatic variations of Panxi area, based on MODIS multispectral data and meteorological data. The results indicate that NDVI is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The precipitation is the major factor that affects the change of vegetation in the Panxi region and the trend of NDVI is similar with autumn precipitation; while at the same time the influence of climate has a one-month-time-lag.
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S. Joannin
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081 from Lake Ledro (652 m a.s.l., southern Alps, Italy. Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF measurements recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitude-dependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir and of the Larix (larch development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP, Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200–7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Combourieu-Nebout
2013-09-01
resulting in a homogeneous seasonal precipitation regime. After 6000 cal yr BP, summer precipitation decreases towards present-day values while winter precipitation rises regularly showing the setting up of Mediterranean climate conditions. Multiproxy evidence from core MD 90-917 provides a deeper understanding of the role of precipitation and particularly the seasonality of precipitation in mediating vegetation change in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene.
The yield of eggplant depending on climate conditions and mulching
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Adamczewska-Sowińska Katarzyna
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The field production of eggplant in moderate climates is difficult as it depends heavily on thermal conditions. Eggplant is a species that is sensitive to low temperatures, and temperatures below 16°C constrain the growth of young plants. Other disadvantageous factors include: temperatures that are too high, water shortage and excessive soil humidity. The growth conditions for eggplant can be improved by using mulches. The purpose of the experiment was the assessment of eggplant cropping while using synthetic mulches of polyethylene foil and polypropylene textile. The research took five years (2008-2012 and on the basis of the obtained results it was possible to determine the influence of weather conditions on the yielding of this species. It was proven that eggplant cropping significantly depended on the air temperature and the amount of rainfall during the vegetation period. The highest yield was observed when the average air temperature was high and at the same time rainfall was evenly distributed throughout the vegetation season. It also turned out that the agro-technical procedure which significantly increased eggplant fruit cropping was mulching the soil with polyethylene black foil, or transparent foil, previously having applied a herbicide.
Lu Hao; Cen Pan; Peilong Liu; Decheng Zhou; Liangxia Zhang; Zhe Xiong; Yongqiang Liu; Ge Sun
2016-01-01
Accurate detection and quantification of vegetation dynamics and drivers of observed climatic and anthropogenic change in space and time is fundamental for our understanding of the atmosphereâbiosphere interactions at local and global scales. This case study examined the coupled spatial patterns of vegetation dynamics and climatic variabilities during the past...
Wang, Hai-Mei; Li, Zheng-Hai; Wang, Zhen
2013-01-01
Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations and the statistical data of livestock density in Xilinguole League in 1981-2007, and by using ArcGIS, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution of the climate aridity and livestock density in the League, and in combining with the ten-day data of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in 1981-2007, the driving factors of the vegetation cover change in the League were discussed. In the study period, there was a satisfactory linear regression relationship between the climate aridity and the vegetation coverage. The NDVI and the livestock density had a favorable binomial regression relationship. With the increase of NDVI, the livestock density increased first and decreased then. The vegetation coverage had a complex linear relationship with livestock density and climate aridity. The NDVI had a positive correlation with climate aridity, but a negative correlation with livestock density. Compared with livestock density, climate aridity had far greater effects on the NDVI.
Manners, R.; Schmidt, J. C.; Wheaton, J. M.
2011-12-01
An enduring question in geomorphology is the role of riparian vegetation in inducing or exacerbating channel narrowing. It is typically difficult to isolate the role of vegetation in causing channel narrowing, because narrowing typically occurs where there are changes in stream flow, sediment supply, the invasion of non-native vegetation, and sometimes climate change. Therefore, linkages between changes in vegetation communities and changes in channel form are often difficult to identify. We took a mechanistic approach to isolate the role of the invasive riparian shrub tamarisk (Tamarix spp) in influencing channel narrowing in the Colorado River basin. Detailed geomorphic reconstructions of two sites on the Yampa and Green Rivers, respectively, in Dinosaur National Monument show that channel narrowing has been progressive and that tamarisk encroachment has also occurred; at the same time, dams have been constructed, diversions increased, and spring snowmelt runoff has been occurring earlier in spring. We simulated hydraulic and sediment transport conditions during the two largest floods of record -- 1984 and 2011. Two-dimensional hydraulic models were built to reflect these conditions and allowed us to perform sensitivity tests to determine the dominant determinants of the observed patterns of erosion and deposition. Channel and floodplain topography were constrained through detailed stratigraphic analysis, including precise dating of deposits based on dating of buried tamarisk plants in a series of floodplain trenches and pits. We also used historical air photos to establish past channel topography. To parameterize the influence of riparian vegetation, we developed a model that links detailed terrestrial laser scan (TLS) measurements of stand structure and its corresponding hydraulic roughness at the patch scale to reach-scale riparian vegetation patterns determined from airborne LiDaR (ALS). This model, in conjunction with maps of the ages and establishment
Tadesse, Tsegaye; Wardlow, Brian D.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Svoboda, Mark; Hayes, Michael; Fuchs, Brian; Gutzmer, Denise
2015-01-01
The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of record-breaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the drought across the region corresponded well to the record warm temperatures and much-below-normal precipitation reported by the National Climatic Data Center and the sectoral drought impacts documented by the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). VegDRI values and maps also showed the evolution of the drought signal before the Las Conchas Fire (the largest fire in New Mexico’s history). Reports in the DIR indicated that the 2011 drought had major adverse impacts on most rangeland and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma, resulting in total direct losses of more than $12 billion associated with crop, livestock, and timber production. These severe impacts on vegetation were depicted by the VegDRI at subcounty, state, and regional levels. This study indicates that the VegDRI maps can be used with traditional drought indicators and other in situ measures to help producers and government officials with various management decisions, such as justifying disaster assistance, assessing fire risk, and identifying locations to move livestock for grazing.
Zhou, Dingwen; Fan, Guangzhou; Huang, Ronghui; Fang, Zhifang; Liu, Yaqin; Li, Hongquan
2007-05-01
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982 2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences: an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stewart, L.; Alsos, Inger G.; Bay, Christian
2016-01-01
Aim The Arctic has experienced marked climatic differences between glacial and interglacial periods and is now subject to a rapidly warming climate. Knowledge of the effects of historical processes on current patterns of diversity may aid predictions of the responses of vegetation to future climate...... species richness of the vascular plant flora of 21 floristic provinces and examined local species richness in 6215 vegetation plots distributed across the Arctic. We assessed levels of genetic diversity inferred from amplified fragment length polymorphism variation across populations of 23 common Arctic...... size compared to the models of bryophyte and lichen richness. Main conclusion Our study suggests that imprints of past glaciations in Arctic vegetation diversity patterns at the regional scale are still detectable today. Since Arctic vegetation is still limited by post-glacial migration lag...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pablo Luis Peri
2018-02-01
Full Text Available In Southern Patagonia, a long-term monitoring network has been established to assess bio-indicators as an early warning of environmental changes due to climate change and human activities. Soil organic carbon (SOC content in rangelands provides a range of important ecosystem services and supports the capacity of the land to sustain plant and animal productivity. The objectives in this study were to model SOC (30 cm stocks at a regional scale using climatic, topographic and vegetation variables, and to establish a baseline that can be used as an indicator of rangeland condition. For modelling, we used a stepwise multiple regression to identify variables that explain SOC variation at the landscape scale. With the SOC model, we obtained a SOC map for the entire Santa Cruz province, where the variables derived from the multiple linear regression models were integrated into a geographic information system (GIS. SOC stock to 30 cm ranged from 1.38 to 32.63 kg C m−2. The fitted model explained 76.4% of SOC variation using as independent variables isothermality, precipitation seasonality and vegetation cover expressed as a normalized difference vegetation index. The SOC map discriminated in three categories (low, medium, high determined patterns among environmental and land use variables. For example, SOC decreased with desertification due to erosion processes. The understanding and mapping of SOC in Patagonia contributes as a bridge across main issues such as climate change, desertification and biodiversity conservation.
Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel
2010-01-01
To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...
Interactions between Climate, Land Use and Vegetation Fire Occurrences in El Salvador
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Dolors Armenteras
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Vegetation burning is a global environmental threat that results in local ecological, economic and social impacts but also has large-scale implications for global change. The burning is usually a result of interacting factors such as climate, land use and vegetation type. Despite its importance as a factor shaping ecological, economic and social processes, countries highly vulnerable to climate change in Central America, such as El Salvador, lack an assessment of this complex relationship. In this study we rely on remotely sensed measures of the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI and thermal anomaly detections by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor to identify vegetation cover changes and fire occurrences. We also use land use data and rainfall observations derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data to determine the spatial and temporal variability and interactions of these factors. Our results indicate a highly marked seasonality of fire occurrence linked to the climatic variability with a peak of fire occurrences in 2004 and 2013. Low vegetation indices occurred in March–April, around two months after the driest period of the year (December–February, corresponding to months with high detection of fires. Spatially, 65.6% of the fires were recurrent and clustered in agriculture/cropland areas and within 1 km of roads (70% and only a 4.7% of fires detected were associated with forests. Remaining forests in El Salvador deserve more attention due to underestimated consequences of forest fires. The identification of these clear patterns can be used as a baseline to better shape management of fire regimes and support decision making in this country. Recommendations resulting from this work include focusing on fire risk models and agriculture fires and long-term ecological and economic consequences of those. Furthermore, El Salvador will need to include agricultural fires in the
Adiyoga, W.
2018-02-01
A survey was carried out in South Sulawesi, Indonesia interviewing 220 vegetable farmers. It was aimed at examining the vegetable farmers’ perception of climate change and assessing the consistency of farmers’ perception with available time series meteorological data. Results suggest that meteorological data analysis is in agreement with farmers’ perception regarding faster start, longer ending, and longer duration of rainy season. Further data analysis supports the claim of most farmers who perceive the occurrence of increasing air temperature, changing or shifting of the hottest and coldest month. Most respondents also suggest that climate change has affected vegetable farm yield and profitability. Other respondents even predict that climate change may affect the quality of life of their future descendants. Meanwhile, significant number of farmers is quite optimistic that they can cope with climate change problems through adaptation strategy. However, the attitude of farmers towards climate change is mostly negative as compared to positive or neutral feeling. Informative and educational campaign should be continuously carried out to encourage farmers in developing positive attitude or positive thinking towards climate change. Positive attitude may eventually lead to constructive behavior in selecting and implementing adaptation options.
Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Bennett, A. P.; Breen, Amy L.; Genet, Helene; Lindgren, Michael A.; Kurkowski, Tom; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T. Scott
2016-01-01
Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m−2 decade−1regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m−2 decade−1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m−2 decade−1). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m−2decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W
Varying responses of vegetation activity to climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau grassland.
Cong, Nan; Shen, Miaogen; Yang, Wei; Yang, Zhiyong; Zhang, Gengxin; Piao, Shilong
2017-08-01
Vegetation activity on the Tibetan Plateau grassland has been substantially enhanced as a result of climate change, as revealed by satellite observations of vegetation greenness (i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI). However, little is known about the temporal variations in the relationships between NDVI and temperature and precipitation, and understanding this is essential for predicting how future climate change would affect vegetation activity. Using NDVI data and meteorological records from 1982 to 2011, we found that the inter-annual partial correlation coefficient between growing season (May-September) NDVI and temperature (R NDVI-T ) in a 15-year moving window for alpine meadow showed little change, likely caused by the increasing R NDVI-T in spring (May-June) and autumn (September) and decreasing R NDVI-T in summer (July-August). Growing season R NDVI-T for alpine steppe increased slightly, mainly due to increasing R NDVI-T in spring and autumn. The partial correlation coefficient between growing season NDVI and precipitation (R NDVI-P ) for alpine meadow increased slightly, mainly in spring and summer, and R NDVI-P for alpine steppe increased, mainly in spring. Moreover, R NDVI-T for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with more precipitation for alpine steppe. R NDVI-P for the growing season was significantly higher in those 15-year windows with higher temperature, and this tendency was stronger for alpine meadow than for alpine steppe. These results indicate that the impact of warming on vegetation activity of Tibetan Plateau grassland is more positive (or less negative) during periods with more precipitation and that the impact of increasing precipitation is more positive (or less negative) during periods with higher temperature. Such positive effects of the interactions between temperature and precipitation indicate that the projected warmer and wetter future climate will enhance vegetation activity
Holocene vegetation and climate change on the Haanja heights, South-East Estonia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saarse, Leili; Rajamaee, Raivo
1997-01-01
The development of forests on the Haanja Heights has been controlled by external factors, including climate, soils, hydrology, and human impact. The sediment sequence from Lake Kirikumaee, which covers about 12 000 years, records the vegetation history throughout the Late Glacial and Holocene. In the Alleroed, woodland tundra with sparse birch and willow was established. Grass-shrub tundra in the Younger Dryas was replaced by birch forest in the Pre-Boreal. During the Holocene two major shifts in vegetation dynamics occurred: the first about 8500 BP with a sharp decline in Betula-Pinus forest and development of broad-leaved forest, and the second about 3500 BP, with a decline in broad-leaved forest and regeneration of Pinus-Betula forest with a high share of Picea. The climate modelling, based on pollen record and lake-level changes, suggest cold, severe climate with low precipitation values in the early Pre-Boreal. Between 9500-8500 BP the climate was rather stable. The lake level first rose, then stabilized, and finally dropped. The sharp climate amelioration in the late Boreal together with the humidity increase resulted in a lake-level rise. The decreased precipitation and rather high summer temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and reduced water balance are characteristic of the Sub-Boreal. Since 3500 BP, the climate deteriorated and mixed coniferous forest started to dominate. Several small climatic fluctuations, including the Little Ice Age cooling, have been traced by modelling. (author)
Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.
2015-01-01
Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.
Bremond, L.; Alexandre, A.; Hely, C.; Vincens, A.; Williamson, D.; Guiot, J.
2004-12-01
Global vegetation models provide a way to translate the outputs from climate models into maps of potential vegetation distribution for present, past and future. Validation of these models goes through the comparison between model outputs and vegetation proxies for well constrained past climatic periods. Grass-dominated biomes are widespread and numerous. This diversity is hardly mirrored by common proxies such as pollen, charcoal or carbon isotopes. Phytoliths are amorphous silica that precipitate in and/or between living plant cells. They are commonly used to trace grasslands dynamics. However, calibration between phytolith assemblages, vegetation, and climate parameters are scarce. This work introduces transfer functions between phytolith indices, inter-tropical grassland physiognomy, and bio-climatic data that will be available for model/data comparisons. The Iph phytolith index discriminates tall from short grass savannas in West Africa. A transfer function allows to estimate evapo-transpiration AET/PET. The Ic phytolith index accurately estimates the proportion of Pooideae and Panicoideae grass sub-families, and potentially the C4/C3 grass dominance on East African mountains. The D/P index appears as a good proxy of Leaf Area Index (LAI) in tropical areas. These environmental parameters are commonly used as vegetation model outputs, but have been, up to now, hardly estimated by vegetation proxies. These transfer functions are applied to a 50,000 yr phytolith sequence from a crater lake (9°S; 33°E Tanzania). The record is compared to the pollen vegetation reconstruction and confronted to simulations of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model (Stitch et. al, 2003).
Maezumi, S. Y.; Power, M. J.; Mayle, F. E.; McLauchlan, K.; Iriarte, J.
2015-01-01
Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are predicted to increase by ~ 3 °C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ~ 20%. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500 year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed for phytoliths, stable isotopes and charcoal. A non-analogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Late Glacial-Early Holocene period (14 500-9000 ka), that included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Late Glacial vegetation was fire sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the Early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly fire-dependent during the Middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels, and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guang Xu
2014-04-01
Full Text Available Understanding how the dynamics of vegetation growth respond to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is critical to projecting future ecosystem dynamics and the adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, we investigated vegetated growth dynamics (annual productivity, seasonality and the minimum amount of vegetated cover in China and their relations with climatic factors during 1982–2011, using the updated Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS third generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset and climate data acquired from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. Major findings are as follows: (1 annual mean NDVI over China significantly increased by about 0.0006 per year from 1982 to 2011; (2 of the vegetated area in China, over 33% experienced a significant positive trend in vegetation growth, mostly located in central and southern China; about 21% experienced a significant positive trend in growth seasonality, most of which occurred in northern China (>35°N; (3 changes in vegetation growth dynamics were significantly correlated with air temperature and precipitation (p < 0.001 at a region scale; (4 at the country scale, changes in NDVI was significantly and positively correlated with annual air temperature (r = 0.52, p < 0.01 and not associated with annual precipitation (p > 0.1; (5 of the vegetated area, about 24% showed significant correlations between annual mean NDVI and air temperature (93% positive and remainder negative, and 12% showed significant correlations of annual mean NDVI with annual precipitation (65% positive and 35% negative. The spatiotemporal variations in vegetation growth dynamics were controlled primarily by temperature and secondly by precipitation. Vegetation growth was also affected by human activities; and (6 monthly NDVI was significantly correlated with the
Morales-Molino, César; García-Antón, Mercedes; Postigo-Mijarra, José M.; Morla, Carlos
2013-01-01
A new palaeoecological sequence from the western Iberian Central Range significantly contributes to the knowledge on the Holocene vegetation dynamics in central Iberia. This sequence supports the existence of time-transgressive changes in the vegetation cover during the beginning of the Holocene over these central Iberian mountains, specifically the replacement of boreal birch-pine forests with Mediterranean communities. Anthracological analyses also indicate the replacement of boreal pines (Pinus sylvestris) with Mediterranean ones (Pinus pinaster) during the early Holocene. The observed vegetation changes were generally synchronous with climatic phases previously reconstructed for the western Mediterranean region, and they suggest that the climatic trends were most similar to those recorded in the northern Mediterranean region and central Europe. Several cycles of secondary succession after fire ending with the recovery of mature forest have been identified, which demonstrates that the vegetation of western Iberia was highly resilient to fire disturbance. However, when the recurrence of fire crossed a certain threshold, the original forests were not able to completely recover and shrublands and grasslands became dominant; this occurred approximately 5800-5400 cal yr BP. Afterwards, heathlands established as the dominant vegetation, which were maintained by frequent and severe wildfires most likely associated with human activities in a climatic framework that was less suitable for temperate trees. Finally, our palaeoecological record provides guidelines on how to manage protected areas in Mediterranean mountains of southwestern Europe, especially regarding the conservation and restoration of temperate communities that are threatened there such as birch stands.
Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.
2018-02-01
Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.
Detecting vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in mid-Holocene North Africa from two climate models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Yi; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel; Kutzbach, John E.
2008-03-31
Using two climate-vegetation model simulations from the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 2), we investigate vegetation-precipitation feedbacks across North Africa during the mid-Holocene. From mid-Holocene snapshot runs of FOAM and CCSM2, we detect a negative feedback at the annual timescale with our statistical analysis. Using the Monte- Carlo bootstrap method, the annual negative feedback is further confirmed to be significant in both simulations. Additional analysis shows that this negative interaction is partially caused by the competition between evaporation and transpiration in North African grasslands. Furthermore, we find the feedbacks decrease with increasing timescales, and change signs from positive to negative at increasing timescales in FOAM. The proposed mechanism for this sign switch is associated with the different persistent timescales of upper and lower soil water contents, and their interactions with vegetation and atmospheric precipitation.
Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.
2015-12-01
While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.
Late glacial vegetation and climate changes in the high mountains of Bulgaria (Southeast Europe)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bozilova, E.D.; Tonkov, S.B.
2005-01-01
Full text: The Late glacial vegetation history in the high mountains of Southern Bulgaria (Rila, Pirin, Western Rhodopes) is reconstructed by means of pollen analysis, plant macrofossils and radiocarbon dating of sediments from lakes and peat-bogs located between 1300 and 2200 m a.s.l. The vegetation response to the climate fluctuations after 13000 14 C yrs. BP in the Rila Mountains is bound for the first time to a detailed chronological framework. Two stadial and one interstadial phases are delimited analogous with the Oldest Dryas-Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas cycle for Western Europe. During the stadials mountain-steppe vegetation composed of Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Poaceae and other cold-resistant herbs dominated at high elevation with sparse stands of Pinus, Betula, and shrubland of Juniperus and Ephedra. The climate improvement in the interstadial resulted in the initial spread of deciduous and coniferous trees (Quercus, Tilia, Corylus, Carpinus, Abies, Picea) from their local refugia below 1000 m. The palaeoecological record from the climate deterioration during the Younger Dryas is documented in thin sections of the cores investigated. (author)
Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Ji, Lei; Lei, Liping; Wang, Cuizhen; Yan, Dongmei; Li, Bin; Li, Jing
2013-01-01
The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036 yr−1. Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.
Assessing the impact of climate variability on catchment water balance and vegetation cover
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. Xu
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Understanding the interactions among climate, vegetation cover and the water cycle lies at the heart of the study of watershed ecohydrology. Recently, considerable attention is being paid to the effect of climate variability on catchment water balance and also associated vegetation cover. In this paper, we investigate the general pattern of long-term water balance and vegetation cover (as reflected by fPAR among 193 study catchments in Australia through statistical analysis. We then employ the elasticity analysis approach for quantifying the effects of climate variability on hydrologic partitioning (including total, surface and subsurface runoff and on vegetation cover (including total, woody and non-woody vegetation cover. Based on the results of statistical analysis, we conclude that annual runoff (R, evapotranspiration (E and runoff coefficient (R/P increase with vegetation cover for catchments in which woody vegetation is dominant and annual precipitation is relatively high. Control of water available on annual evapotranspiration in non-woody dominated catchments is relatively stronger compared to woody dominated ones. The ratio of subsurface runoff to total runoff (Rg/R also increases with woody vegetation cover. Through the elasticity analysis of catchment runoff, it is shown that precipitation (P in current year is the most important factor affecting the change in annual total runoff (R, surface runoff (Rs and subsurface runoff (Rg. The significance of other controlling factors is in the order of annual precipitation in previous years (P−1 and P−2, which represents the net effect of soil moisture and annual mean temperature (T in current year. Change of P by +1% causes a +3.35% change of R, a +3.47% change of Rs and a +2.89% change of
Camill, Philip; Barry, Ann; Williams, Evie; Andreassi, Christian; Limmer, Jacob; Solick, Donald
2009-12-01
Climate warming may increase the size and frequency of fires in the boreal biome, possibly causing greater carbon release that amplifies warming. However, in peatlands, vegetation change may also control long-term fire and carbon accumulation, confounding simple relationships between climate, fire, and carbon accumulation. Using 17 peat cores dating to 8000 cal years B.P. from northern Manitoba, Canada, we addressed the following questions: (1) Do past climate changes correlate with shifts in peatland vegetation? (2) What is the relationship between peatland vegetation and fire severity? (3) What is the mean return interval for boreal peat fires, and how does it change across fires of different severities? (4) How does fire severity affect carbon accumulation rates? (5) Do fire and long-term carbon accumulation change directly in response to climate or indirectly though climate-driven changes in vegetation? We measured carbon accumulation rates, fire severity, and return intervals using macroscopic charcoal and changes in vegetation using macrofossils. Climate and vegetation changes covaried, with shifts from wetter fen to drier, forested bog communities during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). Fires became more severe following the shift to forested bogs, with fire severity peaking after 4000 cal years B.P. rather than during the HTM. Rising fire severity, in turn, was correlated with a significant decrease in carbon accumulation from ˜6000 to 2000 cal years B.P. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age affected vegetation composition and permafrost, further impacting fire and carbon accumulation. Our results indicate that long-term changes in fire and carbon dynamics are mediated by climate-driven changes in vegetation.
Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Franz, E.
2013-01-01
The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric
Crum, Steven M; Shiflett, Sheri A; Jenerette, G Darrel
2017-09-15
Many cities are increasing vegetation in part due to the potential for microclimate cooling. However, the magnitude of vegetation cooling and sensitivity to mesoclimate and meteorology are uncertain. To improve understanding of the variation in vegetation's influence on urban microclimates we asked: how do meso- and regional-scale drivers influence the magnitude and timing of vegetation-based moderation on summertime air temperature (T a ), relative humidity (RH) and heat index (HI) across dryland cities? To answer this question we deployed a network of 180 temperature sensors in summer 2015 over 30 high- and 30 low-vegetated plots in three cities across a coastal to inland to desert climate gradient in southern California, USA. In a followup study, we deployed a network of temperature and humidity sensors in the inland city. We found negative T a and HI and positive RH correlations with vegetation intensity. Furthermore, vegetation effects were highest in evening hours, increasing across the climate gradient, with reductions in T a and increases in RH in low-vegetated plots. Vegetation increased temporal variability of T a , which corresponds with increased nighttime cooling. Increasing mean T a was associated with higher spatial variation in T a in coastal cities and lower variation in inland and desert cities, suggesting a climate dependent switch in vegetation sensitivity. These results show that urban vegetation increases spatiotemporal patterns of microclimate with greater cooling in warmer environments and during nighttime hours. Understanding urban microclimate variation will help city planners identify potential risk reductions associated with vegetation and develop effective strategies ameliorating urban microclimate. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Gao, Qingzhu; Guo, Yaqi; Xu, Hongmei; Ganjurjav, Hasbagen; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Liu, Shuo
2016-06-01
Changes in climate have caused impacts on ecosystems on all continents scale, and climate change is also projected to be a stressor on most ecosystems even at the rate of low- to medium-range warming scenarios. Alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change. To quantify the climate change impacts on alpine ecosystems, we simulated the vegetation distribution and net primary production in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ model) was parameter and test to make it applicable to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Climate projections that were applied to LPJ model in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. Results based on climate projections indicated changes from 1.3°C to 4.2°C in annual temperature and changes from 2% to 5% in annual precipitation. The main impacts on vegetation distribution was increase in the area of forests and shrubs, decrease in alpine meadows which mainly replaced by shrubs which dominated the eastern plateau, and expanding in alpine steppes to the northwest dominated the western and northern plateau. The NPP was projected to increase by 79% and 134% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected NPP generally increased about 200gC·m(-2)·yr(-1) in most parts of the plateau with a gradual increase from the eastern to the western region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau at the end of this century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Wang, Cuizhen; Ji, Lei; Li, Jing; Wang, Kun; Dai, Lin
2014-01-01
The increased rate of annual temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exceeded all other areas of the same latitude in recent decades. The influence of the warming climate on the alpine ecosystem of the plateau was distinct. An analysis of alpine vegetation under changes in climatic conditions was conducted in this study. This was done through an examination of vegetation greenness and its relationship with climate variability using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite imagery and climate datasets. Vegetation in the plateau experienced a positive trend in greenness, with 18.0 % of the vegetated areas exhibiting significantly positive trends, which were primarily located in the eastern and southwestern parts of the plateau. In grasslands, 25.8 % of meadows and 14.1 % of steppes exhibited significant upward trends. In contrast, the broadleaf forests experienced a trend of degradation. Temperature, particularly summer temperature, was the primary factor promoting the vegetation growth in the plateau. The wetter and warmer climate in the east contributed to the favorable conditions for vegetation. The alpine meadow was mostly sensitive to temperature, while the steppes were sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to vegetation growth in the alpine region, the rising temperature coupled with reduced precipitation in the south did not favor vegetation growth due to low humidity and poor soil moisture conditions.
Vegetation exerts a greater control on litter decomposition than climate warming in peatlands.
Ward, Susan E; Orwin, Kate H; Ostle, Nicholas J; Briones, J I; Thomson, Bruce C; Griffiths, Robert I; Oakley, Simon; Quirk, Helen; Bardget, Richard D
2015-01-01
Historically, slow decomposition rates have resulted in the accumulation of large amounts of carbon in northern peatlands. Both climate warming and vegetation change can alter rates of decomposition, and hence affect rates of atmospheric CO2 exchange, with consequences for climate change feedbacks. Although warming and vegetation change are happening concurrently, little is known about their relative and interactive effects on decomposition processes. To test the effects of warming and vegetation change on decomposition rates, we placed litter of three dominant species (Calluna vulgaris, Eriophorum vaginatum, Hypnum jutlandicum) into a peatland field experiment that combined warming.with plant functional group removals, and measured mass loss over two years. To identify potential mechanisms behind effects, we also measured nutrient cycling and soil biota. We found that plant functional group removals exerted a stronger control over short-term litter decomposition than did approximately 1 degrees C warming, and that the plant removal effect depended on litter species identity. Specifically, rates of litter decomposition were faster when shrubs were removed from the plant community, and these effects were strongest for graminoid and bryophyte litter. Plant functional group removals also had strong effects on soil biota and nutrient cycling associated with decomposition, whereby shrub removal had cascading effects on soil fungal community composition, increased enchytraeid abundance, and increased rates of N mineralization. Our findings demonstrate that, in addition to litter quality, changes in vegetation composition play a significant role in regulating short-term litter decomposition and belowground communities in peatland, and that these impacts can be greater than moderate warming effects. Our findings, albeit from a relatively short-term study, highlight the need to consider both vegetation change and its impacts below ground alongside climatic effects when
Mumma, Stephanie Ann; Whitlock, Cathy; Pierce, Kenneth
2012-01-01
A sediment core extending to 28,000 cal yr BP from Lower Red Rock Lake in the Centennial Valley of southwestern Montana provides new information on the nature of full-glacial vegetation as well as a history of late-glacial and Holocene vegetation and climate in a poorly studied region. Prior to 17,000 cal yr BP, the eastern Centennial Valley was occupied by a large lake (Pleistocene Lake Centennial), and valley glaciers were present in adjacent mountain ranges. The lake lowered upon erosion of a newly formed western outlet in late-glacial time. High pollen percentages of Juniperus, Poaceae, Asteraceae, and other herbs as well as low pollen accumulation rates suggest sparse vegetation cover. Inferred cold dry conditions are consistent with a strengthened glacial anticyclone at this time. Between 17,000 and 10,500 cal yr BP, high Picea and Abies pollen percentages suggest a shift to subalpine parkland and warmer conditions than before. This is attributed to the northward shift of the jet stream and increasing summer insolation. From 10,500 to 7100 cal yr BP, pollen evidence of open dry forests suggests warm conditions, which were likely a response to increased summer insolation and a strengthened Pacific subtropical high-pressure system. From 7100 to 2400 cal yr BP, cooler moister conditions promoted closed forest and wetlands. Increases in Picea and Abies pollen percentages after 2400 cal yr BP suggest increasing effective moisture. The postglacial pattern of Pseudotsuga expansion indicates that it arrived later on the Atlantic side of the Continental Divide than on the Pacific side. The Divide may have been a physical barrier for refugial populations or it delimited different climate regions that influenced the timing of Pseudotsuga expansion.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hashim, M; Pour, A B; Onn, C H
2014-01-01
Remote sensing technology is an important tool to analyze vegetation dynamics, quantifying vegetation fraction of Earth's agricultural and natural vegetation. In optical remote sensing analysis removing atmospheric interferences, particularly distribution of cloud contaminations, are always a critical task in the tropical climate. This paper suggests a fast and alternative approach to remove cloud and shadow contaminations for Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper + (ETM + ) multi temporal datasets. Band 3 and Band 4 from all the Landsat ETM + dataset are two main spectral bands that are very crucial in this study for cloud removal technique. The Normalise difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalised difference soil index (NDSI) are two main derivatives derived from the datasets. Change vector analysis is used in this study to seek the vegetation dynamics. The approach developed in this study for cloud optimizing can be broadly applicable for optical remote sensing satellite data, which are seriously obscured with heavy cloud contamination in the tropical climate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
shadan khorshidi
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Most deciduous trees need low temperature to break flower bud dormancy. One of the most important abiotic stresses is low temperature which limits production of temperate fruits. Pear production has been considerably reduced in recent years. Important pear cultivars show different levels of resistance to cold. Cold compatibility followed by resistance increase is controlled genetically and contains several mechanisms which lead to production of different metabolites such as: polypeptides, amino acids and sugars. The object of this research was to evaluate the frost resistance of different ‘Dare Gazi’ genotypes and other pear cultivars in Mashhad climate condition. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted to investigate the frost resistance of 23 ‘Dare Gazi’ pear genotypes and nine other cultivars include: ‘William’s’, ‘Bell de june’, ‘Spadona’, ‘Koshia’, ‘Domkaj’, ‘Torsh’, ‘Sebri’ and ‘Tabrizi’. Plant material contained vegetative and reproductive buds of one-year-old shoot samples which were collected from 25-year old trees on March 2014, four days after winter cold (-6.6 °C in three directions of trees and sent to the laboratory. Frost damages of vegetative and reproductive buds were investigated based on visual observations (%, electrolyte leakage (EC and proline content. EC was measured with a Metrohm 644 digital conductivity meter and proline content was measured based on Bates et al. (1973 method, using acid ninhydrin. The experiment was performed on completely randomized experimental design with three replications. Statistical analysis was carried out using MSTAT-C and Excel software. Mean values were compared using the least significance difference test (LSD at 1% levels. Cluster analysis was conducted by SPSS 16 program. Results and Discussion: Highest EC of reproductive buds was observed in ‘Dare Gazi’ 10, 19, ‘Tabrizi’ and ‘Torsh’ whereas ‘Dare Gazi’ 8, 18
Vegetation physiology controls continental water cycle responses to climate change
Lemordant, L. A.; Swann, A. L. S.; Cook, B.; Scheff, J.; Gentine, P.
2017-12-01
Abstract per se:Predicting how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle is of utmost importance for ecological systems and for human life and activities. A typical perspective is that global warming will cause an intensification of the mean state, the so-called "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" paradigm. While this result is robust over the oceans, recent works suggest it may be less appropriate for terrestrial regions. Using Earth System Models (ESMs) with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology, PHYS) and atmospheric (radiative, ATMO) CO2 responses, we show that the CO2 physiological response dominates the change in the continental hydrologic cycle compared to radiative and precipitation changes due to increased atmospheric CO2, counter to previous assumptions. Using multiple linear regression analysis, we estimate the individual contribution of each of the three main drivers, precipitation, radiation and physiological CO2 forcing (see attached figure). Our analysis reveals that physiological effects dominate changes for 3 key indicators of dryness and/or vegetation stress (namely LAI, P-ET and EF) over the largest fraction of the globe, except for soil moisture which exhibits a more complex response. This highlights the key role of vegetation in controlling future terrestrial hydrologic response.Legend of the Figure attached:Decomposition along the three main drivers of LAI (a), P-ET (b), EF (c) in the control run. Green quantifies the effect of the vegetation physiology based on the run PHYS; red and blue quantify the contribution of, respectively, net radiation and precipitation, based on multiple linear regression in ATMO. Pie charts show for each variable the fraction (labelled in %) of land under the main influence (more than 50% of the changes is attributed to this driver) of one the three main drivers (green for grid points dominated by vegetation physiology, red for grid points dominated by net radiation, and blue for grid points dominated by the
Bodegom, P. V.
2015-12-01
Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.
Magnan, Gabriel; van Bellen, Simon; Davies, Lauren; Froese, Duane; Garneau, Michelle; Mullan-Boudreau, Gillian; Zaccone, Claudio; Shotyk, William
2018-04-01
Northern boreal peatlands are major terrestrial sinks of organic carbon and these ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to human activities and climate change, act as sensitive archives of past environmental change at various timescales. This study aims at understanding how the climate changes of the last 1000 years have affected peatland vegetation dynamics in the boreal region of Alberta in western Canada. Peat cores were collected from five bogs in the Fort McMurray region (56-57° N), at the southern limit of sporadic permafrost, and two in central Alberta (53° N and 55° N) outside the present-day limit of permafrost peatlands. The past changes in vegetation communities were reconstructed using detailed plant macrofossil analyses combined with high-resolution peat chronologies (14C, atmospheric bomb-pulse 14C, 210Pb and cryptotephras). Peat humification proxies (C/N, H/C, bulk density) and records of pH and ash content were also used to improve the interpretation of climate-related vegetation changes. Our study shows important changes in peatland vegetation and physical and chemical peat properties during the Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling period mainly from around 1700 CE and the subsequent climate warming of the 20th century. In some bogs, the plant macrofossils have recorded periods of permafrost aggradation during the LIA with drier surface conditions, increased peat humification and high abundance of ericaceous shrubs and black spruce (Picea mariana). The subsequent permafrost thaw was characterized by a short-term shift towards wetter conditions (Sphagnum sect. Cuspidata) and a decline in Picea mariana. Finally, a shift to a dominance of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia (mainly Sphagnum fuscum) occurred in all the bogs during the second half of the 20th century, indicating the establishment of dry ombrotrophic conditions under the recent warmer and drier climate conditions.
Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States
Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.
2018-01-01
Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities
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Flavio Justino
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Previous work suggests that changes in seasonality could lead to a 70% reduction in the extent of the Amazon rainforest. The primary cause of the dieback of the rainforest is a lengthening of the dry season due to a weakening of the large-scale tropical circulation. Here we examine these changes in the seasonal cycle. Under present day conditions the Amazon climate is characterized by a zonal separation of the dominance of the annual and semi-annual seasonal cycles. This behavior is strongly modified under greenhouse warming conditions, with the annual cycle becoming dominant throughout the Amazon basin, increasing differences between the dry and wet seasons. In particular, there are substantial changes in the annual cycle of temperature due to the increase in the temperature of the warmest month, but the lengthening of the dry season is believed to be particularly important for vegetation-climate feedbacks. Harmonic analysis performed to regional climate model simulations yields results that differ from the global climate model that it is forced from, with the regional model being more sensitive to changes in the seasonal cycle.
Late Holocene Vegetation and Climate at the Mid Altitudes of the Western Himalaya
ROY, I.; Ranhotra, P. S.; Shekhar, M.; Bhattacharyya, A.; Agrawal, S.; Kumar, P.; Patil, S. K.; Pal, A. K.
2017-12-01
The palynological, stable carbon isotope and magnetic susceptibility studies of a 42 cm deep sedimentary core collected from palaeolacustrine deposit at the Nachiketa area ( 2,400 m amsl) near Uttarkashi of Western Himalaya provides the late Holocene vegetation and climatic scenario of the area. Between 3200 to 1650 cal yrs BP, the high susceptibility (χlf) values along with the good frequency of fern spores might indicate the prevailing moist conditions due to high summer monsoon with good influx of the sediments. However, the low pollen concentration between 3200 to 2680 cal years BP might be due to less ground vegetation cover or poor pollen preservation in the sediments. The well represented fern spores along with the other ground vegetation taxa in the period from 1650 cal yrs BP to 600 cal yrs BP also indicates the continuous prevalence of moist conditions that can be related with the globally known medieval warm period (MWP), supported by the δ13C values around -24‰ during this time and the high χLF values. Moreover, the good representation of Cyperaceae pollen suggests the in-filling of the lake followed by the invasion of ground vegetation viz. Cheno/Ams, Apiaceae, Poaceae etc. The good pollen frequency of broadleaved taxa viz. Quercus and Alnus also supports the moist conditions. Since 600 cal years BP the lowered χLF values signifies reduced input from the surrounding suggesting the filling of the lake. The marked increase in the pollen frequency of Cheno/Ams with low values of fern spores suggest less moist conditions with reduced summer monsoon that can be related to Little Ice Age (LIA) episode. Also the low negative δ13C values (around -21‰) indicates the less ground moisture supporting the C4 taxa. The Quercus and Alnus also reduced in their pollen presence. Whereas the Pinus pollen increased gradually since nearly before 410 cal years BP till recent showing the increased invasion of this taxa to near proximity of the area. The
Fuertes, Elaine; Butland, Barbara K; Ross Anderson, H; Carlsten, Chris; Strachan, David P; Brauer, Michael
2014-10-01
The effect of climate change and its effects on vegetation growth, and consequently on rhinitis, are uncertain. To examine between- and within-country associations of climate measures and the normalized difference vegetation index with intermittent and persistent rhinitis symptoms in a global context. Questionnaire data from 6- to 7-year-olds and 13- to 14-year-olds were collected in phase 3 of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood. Associations of intermittent (>1 symptom report but not for 2 consecutive months) and persistent (symptoms for ≥2 consecutive months) rhinitis symptom prevalences with temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure, and the normalized difference vegetation index were assessed in linear mixed-effects regression models adjusted for gross national income and population density. The mean difference in prevalence per 100 children (with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) per interquartile range increase of exposure is reported. The country-level intermittent symptom prevalence was associated with several country-level climatic measures, including the country-level mean monthly temperature (6.09 °C; 95% CI, 2.06-10.11°C per 10.4 °C), precipitation (3.10 mm; 95% CI, 0.46-5.73 mm; per 67.0 mm), and vapor pressure (6.21 hPa; 95% CI, 2.17-10.24 hPa; per 10.4 hPa) among 13- to 14-year-olds (222 center in 94 countries). The center-level persistent symptom prevalence was positively associated with several center-level climatic measures. Associations with climate were also found for the 6- to 7-year-olds (132 center in 57 countries). Several between- and within-country spatial associations between climatic factors and intermittent and persistent rhinitis symptom prevalences were observed. These results provide suggestive evidence that climate (and future changes in climate) may influence rhinitis symptom prevalence. Copyright © 2014 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Shellito, Cindy J.; Sloan, Lisa C.
2006-02-01
Models that allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate provide a unique method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in pre-Quaternary time periods. In this paper, we consider how Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), which have been developed for simulations with present day climate, can be used for paleoclimate studies. We begin with a series of tests in the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM)-DGVM with Eocene geography to examine (1) the effect of removing C 4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO 2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. The tests were designed to highlight some of the challenges of using these models and prompt discussion of possible improvements. We discuss how lack of detail in model boundary conditions, uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, and inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM can affect interpretation of model results. However, we also review a number of DGVM features that can facilitate understanding of past climates and offer suggestions for improving paleo-DGVM studies.
Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ikonen, J P; Sucksdorff, Y [Finnish Environment Agency, Helsinki (Finland)
1997-12-31
In this study the soil/vegetation/atmosphere-model based on the formulation of Deardorff was refined to hour basis and applied to a field in Vihti. The effect of model parameters on model results (energy fluxes, temperatures) was also studied as well as the effect of atmospheric conditions. The estimation of atmospheric conditions on the soil-vegetation system as well as an estimation of the effect of vegetation parameters on the atmospheric climate was estimated. Areal surface fluxes, temperatures and moistures were also modelled for some river basins in southern Finland. Land-use and soil parameterisation was developed to include properties and yearly variation of all vegetation and soil types. One classification was selected to describe the hydrothermal properties of the soils. Evapotranspiration was verified against the water balance method
Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ikonen, J.P.; Sucksdorff, Y. [Finnish Environment Agency, Helsinki (Finland)
1996-12-31
In this study the soil/vegetation/atmosphere-model based on the formulation of Deardorff was refined to hour basis and applied to a field in Vihti. The effect of model parameters on model results (energy fluxes, temperatures) was also studied as well as the effect of atmospheric conditions. The estimation of atmospheric conditions on the soil-vegetation system as well as an estimation of the effect of vegetation parameters on the atmospheric climate was estimated. Areal surface fluxes, temperatures and moistures were also modelled for some river basins in southern Finland. Land-use and soil parameterisation was developed to include properties and yearly variation of all vegetation and soil types. One classification was selected to describe the hydrothermal properties of the soils. Evapotranspiration was verified against the water balance method
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Hough-Snee Nate
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Instream wood is a driver of geomorphic change in low-order streams, frequently altering morphodynamic processes. Instream wood is a frequently measured component of streams, yet it is a complex metric, responding to ecological and geomorphic forcings at a variety of scales. Here we seek to disentangle the relative importance of physical and biological processes that drive wood growth and delivery to streams across broad spatial extents. In so doing, we ask two primary questions: (1 is riparian vegetation a composite variable that captures the indirect effects of climate and disturbance on instream wood dynamics? (2 What are the direct and indirect relationships between geomorphic setting, vegetation, climate, disturbance, and instream wood dynamics? We measured riparian vegetation composition and wood frequency and volume at 720 headwater reaches within the American interior Pacific Northwest. We used ordination to identify relationships between vegetation and environmental attributes, and subsequently built a structural equation model to identify how climate and disturbance directly affect vegetation composition and how vegetation and geomorphic setting directly affect instream wood volume and frequency. We found that large wood volume and frequency are directly driven by vegetation composition and positively correlated to wildfire, elevation, stream gradient, and channel bankfull width. Indicator species at reaches with high volumes of wood were generally long-lived, conifer trees that persist for extended durations once delivered to stream habitats. Wood dynamics were also indirectly mediated by factors that shape vegetation: wildfire, precipitation, elevation, and temperature. We conclude that wood volume and frequency are driven by multiple interrelated climatic, geomorphic, and ecological variables. Vegetation composition and geomorphic setting directly mediate indirect relationships between landscape environmental processes and instream
O'ishi, R.; Abe-Ouchi, A.
2013-07-01
When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago) is cold and dry compared to the present-day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm). In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM, the MIROC-LPJ). The MIROC-LPJ is different from earlier studies in the introduction of a bias correction method in individual running GCM experiments. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback) and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows that global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5 % due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using offline Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM). Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 597 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 282 ppm atmospheric CO2. In the LGM experiments, the global carbon distribution is generally the same whether the vegetation feedback to the atmosphere is included or not. However, the inclusion of vegetation feedback causes substantial terrestrial carbon storage change, especially in explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.
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R. O'ishi
2013-07-01
Full Text Available When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago is cold and dry compared to the present-day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm. In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM, the MIROC-LPJ. The MIROC-LPJ is different from earlier studies in the introduction of a bias correction method in individual running GCM experiments. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows that global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5 % due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using offline Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM. Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 597 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 282 ppm atmospheric CO2. In the LGM experiments, the global carbon distribution is generally the same whether the vegetation feedback to the atmosphere is included or not. However, the inclusion of vegetation feedback causes substantial terrestrial carbon storage change, especially in explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.
NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Version 4
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains gridded daily Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Advanced Very High Resolution...
Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert
2018-01-01
Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased
Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert
2017-11-01
Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gouveia, Susy E.M.; Pessenda, Luiz C.R.; Freitas, Hermes A.; Silva, Vanessa F.; Pellegrinotti, Thais C.; Aravena, Ramon; Scheel-Ybert, Rita; Bendassolli, Jose A.
2000-01-01
This paper presents an attempt to reconstruct vegetation and climate changes in the central region of the state of Sao Paulo (Jaguariuna) and west of the state of Mato Grosso (Pontes e Lacerda) during the last 12,000 years BP, based on δ 13 C values of soil organic matter (SOM), 14 C dating and botanical identification of buried charcoal in the soil profiles. Sampling site in Sao Paulo was located under natural vegetation ('cerradao'), along the slope of small hills and in the top of slope under the semi-deciduous forest in Mato Grosso. Charcoal was found predominantly between 150 and 50 cm depth, indicating a period of greater frequency of fires in these regions, between 6,000 and 3,000 years BP. More enriched values of δ 13 C of SOM (predominance of C 4 plants) were observed from approximately 12,000 to 7,000 years BP in Jaguariuna, indicating drier climate when compared with nowadays conditions. The charcoal analyses indicated the predominance of cerrado species. In Pontes e Lacerda site, the δ 13 C profile suggests the presence of C 3 vegetation (forest) during the last 10,000 years and the most of identified charcoal fragments indicated the presence of semi-deciduous forest as well as cerrado species. (author)
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Losjoe, K.; Johansson, Barbro; Bringfelt, B.; Oleskog, I.; Bergstroem, S.
1999-01-01
Climate change and man-made interference will cause an impact on runoff and groundwater recharge in the future. With the aim to give a conception of seasonal variations and the magnitude of the differences, the HBV model has been used as a tool for simulating five climate alternatives in two areas of south-east Sweden. The climate alternatives include both increased and decreased temperature and precipitation. These are not predictions of a future climate change, and should only be regarded as examples. The purpose has been to exemplify a conceivable magnitude of change during temperate/boreal conditions. It has not been within the scope of this report to evaluate the most probable climate change scenarios. The impacts of different climate scenarios on the total groundwater recharge and the deep groundwater recharge have been calculated as long-term mean values and are presented in comparison with model-simulated values with an actual (recorded) climate sequence. The results show great differences between the climate alternatives. An increase in temperature will decrease snow accumulation and increase the evapotranspiration and can totally extinguish the spring snowmelt peak in runoff and groundwater recharge. A decreased temperature, on the contrary, will imply decreased winter runoff and recharge values and an increase in spring and summer values. Evapotranspiration and soil water content play a key role in the runoff and recharge processes. This report makes a review of some literature about work done within the areas of investigation and calculation of evapotranspiration. Research is in progress, not only on formulating future climate scenarios, but also on distinguishing evapotranspiration from different kinds of vegetation. These are complex questions, but vital ones, as a climate change will also affect the vegetation. Until new research results are presented, well-known methods can be used for simulating the effects of logging on runoff and groundwater
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Zhiwei Wang
Full Text Available The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP contains the largest permafrost area in a high-altitude region in the world, and the unique hydrothermal environments of the active layers in this region have an important impact on vegetation growth. Geographical locations present different climatic conditions, and in combination with the permafrost environments, these conditions comprehensively affect the local vegetation activity. Therefore, the responses of vegetation to climate change in the permafrost region of the QTP may be varied differently by geographical location and vegetation condition. In this study, using the latest Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI product based on turning points (TPs, which were calculated using a piecewise linear model, 9 areas within the permafrost region of the QTP were selected to investigate the effect of geographical location and vegetation type on vegetation growth from 1982 to 2012. The following 4 vegetation types were observed in the 9 selected study areas: alpine swamp meadow, alpine meadow, alpine steppe and alpine desert. The research results show that, in these study areas, TPs mainly appeared in 2000 and 2001, and almost 55.1% and 35.0% of the TPs were located in 2000 and 2001. The global standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI and 7 meteorological variables were selected to analyze their correlations with NDVI. We found that the main correlative variables to vegetation productivity in study areas from 1982 to 2012 were precipitation, surface downward long-wave radiation and temperature. Furthermore, NDVI changes exhibited by different vegetation types within the same study area followed similar trends. The results show that regional effects rather than vegetation type had a larger impact on changes in vegetation growth in the permafrost regions of the QTP, indicating that climatic factors had a larger impact in the permafrost
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Jinghui Qi
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The vegetation response to climatic factors is a hot topic in global change research. However, research on vegetation in Shule River Basin, which is a typical arid region in northwest China, is still limited, especially at micro scale. On the basis of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data and daily meteorological data, employing panel data models and other mathematical models, the aim of this paper is to reveal the interactive relationship between vegetation variation and climatic factors in Shule River Basin. Results show that there is a widespread greening trend in the whole basin during 2000–2015, and 80.28% of greening areas (areas with vegetation improvement are distributed over upstream region, but the maximum vegetation variation appears in downstream area. The effects of climate change on NDVI lag about half to one month. The parameters estimated using panel data models indicate that precipitation and accumulated temperature have positive contribution to NDVI. With every 1-mm increase in rainfall, NDVI increases by around 0.223‰ in upstream area and 0.6‰ in downstream area. With every 1-°C increase in accumulated temperature, NDVI increases by around 0.241‰ in upstream area and 0.174‰ in downstream area. Responses of NDVI to climatic factors are more sensitive when these factors are limiting than when they are not limiting. NDVI variation has performance in two seasonal and inter-annual directions, and the range of seasonal change is far more than that of inter-annual change. The inverted U-shaped curve of the variable intercepts reflects the seasonal change. Our results might provide some scientific basis for the comprehensive basin management.
Evolution of the vegetation system in the Heihe River basin in the last 2000 years
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S. Li
2017-08-01
Full Text Available The response of vegetation systems to the long-term changes in climate, hydrology, and social–economic conditions in river basins is critical for sustainable river basin management. This study aims to investigate the evolution of natural and crop vegetation systems in the Heihe River basin (HRB over the past 2000 years. Archived Landsat images, historical land use maps and hydrological records were introduced to derive the long-term spatial distribution of natural and crop vegetation and the corresponding biomass levels. The major findings are that (1 both natural and crop vegetation experienced three development stages: a pre-development stage (before the Republic of China, a rapid development stage (Republic of China – 2000, and a post-development stage (after 2000. Climate and hydrological conditions did not show significant impacts over crop vegetation, while streamflow presented synchronous changes with natural vegetation in the first stage. For the second stage, warmer temperature and increasing streamflow were found to be important factors for the increase in both natural and crop vegetation in the middle reaches of the HRB. For the third stage, positive climate and hydrological conditions, together with policy interventions, supported the overall vegetation increase in both the middle and lower HRB; (2 there was a significantly faster increase in crop biomass than that of native vegetation since 1949, which could be explained by the technological development; and (3 the ratio of natural vegetation to crop vegetation decreased from 16 during the Yuan Dynasty to about 2.2 since 2005. This ratio reflects the reaction of land and water development to a changing climate and altering social–economic conditions at the river basin level; therefore, it could be used as an indicator of water and land management at river basins.
Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.
2017-12-01
Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in
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Satrio; Sidauruk, P.; Pratikno, B.
2012-01-01
Climate and vegetation study using environmental isotopes (i.e., 13 C, 14 C and 18 O) variations of stalactite has been conducted at Seropan cave, Gunung Kidul Karst area. The stalactite samples were collected from Seropan Cave at Semanu, Gunung Kidul, Yogyakarta. The objective of study is to understand the climate change, and vegetation types, temperature of atmosphere, age and stalactite growth rate through the interpretation of environmental isotopes (i.e., 13 C, 14 C and 18 O) of stalactite samples. The environmental isotope content of stalactite samples were analysed through CaCO 3 compound that was found at the stalactite samples. The 13 C content of samples is important to understand climate undulation and also vegetation variation. On the other hand, the variation of 18 O and 14 C contents is important to predict past temperature of atmosphere, and the age as well as stalactite growth rate, respectively. The result of environmental 13 C isotope analysis showed that Gunung Kidul area in general can be classified as dry climate. It is also indicated that almost 87.5 % of local vegetation can be classified as dry vegetation C4 as can be seen from the variation of δ 13 C content that is -6 ‰ to +2 ‰ vs PDB. This can also mean that only 12.5 % of the time that the vegetation in the area is wet in which the variation of δ 13 C content is in the range -14 ‰ to -6 ‰ vs PDB. The variations of 18 O contents of the samples (carbonate stalactite, or drip water) showed that the average temperature since 1621 to 2011 was around 19.5 °C. On the other hand, the variations of 14 C contents of the samples showed that stalactite growth rate was around 0.1 mm/year or one mm in ten years. The result shows that the stalactite growth is very slow as generally expected in tropical area such as Gunung Kidul. (author)
Megalake Chad impact on climate and vegetation during the late Pliocene and the mid-Holocene
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C. Contoux
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Given the growing evidence for megalakes in the geological record, assessing their impact on climate and vegetation is important for the validation of palaeoclimate simulations and therefore the accuracy of model–data comparison in lacustrine environments. Megalake Chad (MLC occurrences are documented not only for the mid-Holocene but also for the Mio-Pliocene (Schuster et al., 2009. At this time, the surface covered by water would have reached up to ~350 000 km2 (Ghienne et al., 2002; Schuster et al., 2005; Leblanc et al., 2006, making it an important evaporation source, possibly modifying climate and vegetation in the Chad Basin. We investigated the impact of such a giant continental water area in two different climatic backgrounds within the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (PMIP3: the late Pliocene (3.3 to 3 Ma, i.e. the mid-Piacenzian warm period and the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP. In all simulations including MLC, precipitation is drastically reduced above the lake surface because deep convection is inhibited by overlying colder air. Meanwhile, convective activity is enhanced around MLC because of the wind increase generated by the flat surface of the megalake, transporting colder and moister air towards the eastern shore of the lake. The effect of MLC on precipitation and temperature is not sufficient to widely impact vegetation patterns. Nevertheless, tropical savanna is present in the Chad Basin in all climatic configurations, even without MLC presence, showing that the climate itself is the driver of favourable environments for sustainable hominid habitats.
Use of Vegetation Health Data for Estimation of Aus Rice Yield in Bangladesh
Rahman, Atiqur; Roytman, Leonid; Krakauer, Nir Y.; Nizamuddin, Mohammad; Goldberg, Mitch
2009-01-01
Rice is a vital staple crop for Bangladesh and surrounding countries, with interannual variation in yields depending on climatic conditions. We compared Bangladesh yield of aus rice, one of the main varieties grown, from official agricultural statistics with Vegetation Health (VH) Indices [Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and Vegetation Health Index (VHI)] computed from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data covering a period of 15 years (1991...
Zhang, Wenxin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf
2013-09-01
One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.
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Shuman, J K; Shugart, H H
2009-01-01
Climate warming could strongly influence the structure and composition of the Eurasian boreal forest. Temperature related changes have occurred, including shifts in treelines and changes in regeneration. Dynamic vegetation models are well suited to the further exploration of the impacts that climate change may have on boreal forests. Using the individual-based gap model FAREAST, forest composition and biomass are simulated at over 2000 sites across Eurasia. Biomass output is compared to detailed forest data from a representative sample of Russian forests and a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact that elevated temperatures and modified precipitation will have on forest biomass and composition in Eurasia. Correlations between model and forest inventory biomass are strong for several boreal tree species. A significant relationship is shown between altered precipitation and biomass. This analysis showed that a modest increase in temperature of 2 deg. C across 200 years had no significant effect on biomass; however further exploration with increased warming reflective of values measured within Siberia, or at an increased rate, are warranted. Overall, FAREAST accurately simulates forest biomass and composition at sites throughout a large geographic area with widely varying climatic conditions and produces reasonable biomass responses to simulated climatic shifts. These results indicate that this model is robust and useful in making predictions regarding the effect of future climate change on boreal forest structure across Eurasia.
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Amundson, R.G.; Chadwick, O.A.; Sowers, J.M.; Doner, H.E.
1988-01-01
The relationship between the stable C-isotope composition of the soil environment and modern climate and vegetation was determined empirically along a present-day climatic transect in the eastern Mojave Desert. The δ 13 C of the soil CO 2 and carbonates decreased with increasing elevation and plant density, even though plant assemblages at all elevations were isotopically similar. Several factors, including differences in the ratios of pedogenic of limestone calcite and differences in past vegetation, were considered as explanations of this trend, However, it appears that in the sparsely vegetated Mojave Desert, the δ 13 C of pedogenic carbonate is controlled by differences in plant density and biological activity. This relationship may provide a tool for assessing past vegetational densities, as long as the vegetation is isotopically homogeneous. (author)
Li, Z.; Xia, J.; Ahlström, A.; Rinke, A.; Koven, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ji, D.; Zhang, G.; Krinner, G.; Chen, G.; Dong, J.; Liang, J.; Moore, J.; Jiang, L.; Yan, L.; Ciais, P.; Peng, S.; Wang, Y.; Xiao, X.; Shi, Z.; McGuire, A. D.; Luo, Y.
2017-12-01
The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern high latitudes since 1960s1-3. It remains unclear that whether this mechanism is still robust since 1990s, because a paused vegetation growth increase4,5 and weakened temperature control on CO2 uptake6,7 have been detected during this period. Here, based on in-situ atmospheric CO2 concentration records above northern 50o N, we found a slowdown of the atmospheric CO2 amplification from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s. This phenomenon is associated with the pause of vegetation greening trend and slowdown of spring warming. We further showed that both the vegetation greenness and its growing season length are positively correlated to spring but not autumn temperature from 1982 to 2010 over the northern lands. However, the state-of-art terrestrial biosphere models produce positive responses of gross primary productivity to both spring and autumn warming. These findings emphasize the importance of vegetation-climate feedback in shaping the atmospheric CO2 seasonality, and call for an improved carbon-cycle response to non-uniform seasonal warming at high latitudes in current models.
The Late Quaternary history of climate and vegetation in East and southern Africa
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E. M. van Zinderen Bakker Sr
1983-11-01
Full Text Available In the vast region of East and southern Africa the alternating glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternarv were characterized by considerable changes in temperature and precipitation. During the last glacial maximum the influence of the ITCZ was limited, while the circulation systems were strengthened. The ocean surface waters were cooler and the Benguela Current was activated. In the montane areas of East Africa and also in southern Africa the temperature dropped by about 6°C. During this hypothermal period, rainfall on the east African plateau and mountains diminished. Summer precipitation could still penetrate the eastern half of southern Africa from the Indian Ocean, while the western half was arid to semi-arid. Cyclonic winter rain migrated further north beyond the latitude of the Orange River. The consequences of these climatic changes during the last glacial maximum were that the woodlands of East Africa opened up. On the plateau of South Africa austro-afroalpine vegetation dominated. The south coastal plain was very windy and cold to temperate, while the Namib and Kalahari were respectively hyper-arid and semi-humid. During hyperthermals the vegetation pattern resembled present-day conditions more closely.
Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis
This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.
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Armin H. Seydack
2012-02-01
Developing the climate–vegetation response model involved three main components, namely (1 defining indicators of forage availability to herbivores (nitrogen productivity, nitrogen quality, carbon-nutrient quality, (2 identifying herbivore species guilds of similar nutritional requirements with respect to these indicators [bulk feeders with tolerance to fibrous herbage (buffalo, waterbuck, bulk feeders with preference for high nitrogen quality forage (short grass preference grazers: blue wildebeest and zebra and selective feeders where dietary items of relatively high carbon-nutrient quality represented key forage resources (selective grazers: sable antelope, roan antelope, tsessebe, eland] and (3 developing a process model where the expected effects of plant metabolic responses to climate on key forage resources were made explicit. According to the climate–vegetation response model both shorter-term transient temperature acclimation pulses and longer-term shifts in plant metabolic functionality settings were predicted to have occurred in response to temperature trends over the past century. These temperature acclimation responses were expected to have resulted in transient pulses of increased forage availability (increased nitrogen- and carbon-nutrient quality, as well as the progressive long-term decline of the carbon-nutrient quality of forage. Conservation implications: The climate–vegetation response model represents a research framework for further studies contributing towards the enhanced understanding of landscape-scale functioning of savanna systems with reference to the interplay between climate, vegetation and herbivore population dynamics. Gains in such understanding can support sound conservation management.
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Antonius G T Schut
Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.
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Yi Song
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The Qinghai-Tibet (QT Plateau Engineering Corridor is located in the hinterland of the QT Plateau, which is highly sensitive to global climate change. Climate change causes permafrost degradation, which subsequently affects vegetation growth. This study focused on the vegetation dynamics and their relationships with climate change and human activities in the region surrounding the QT Plateau Engineering Corridor. The vegetation changes were inferred by applying trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall trend test and abrupt change analysis. Six key regions, each containing 40 nested quadrats that ranged in size from 500 × 500 m to 20 × 20 km, were selected to determine the spatial scales of the impacts from different factors. Cumulative growing season integrated enhanced vegetation index (CGSIEVI values were calculated for each of the nested quadrats of different sizes to indicate the overall vegetation state over the entire year at different spatial scales. The impacts from human activities, a sudden increase in precipitation and permafrost degradation were quantified at different spatial scales using the CGSIEVI values and meteorological data based on the double mass curve method. Three conclusions were derived. First, the vegetation displayed a significant increasing trend over 23.6% of the study area. The areas displaying increases were mainly distributed in the Hoh Xil. Of the area where the vegetation displayed a significant decreasing trend, 72.4% was made up of alpine meadows. Second, more vegetation, especially the alpine meadows, has begun to degenerate or experience more rapid degradation since 2007 due to permafrost degradation and overgrazing. Finally, an active layer depth of 3 m to 3.2 m represents a limiting depth for alpine meadows.
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Zheng Li
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months. When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation’s responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April–October. The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages.
Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model
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Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)
1993-09-01
A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Wenxin; Miller, Paul A; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf
2013-01-01
One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model–downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961–1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051–2080), a poleward advance of the forest–tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH 4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH 4 , may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux. (letter)
Developing digital vegetation for central hardwood forest types: A case study from Leslie County, KY
Bo Song; Wei-lun Tsai; Chiao-ying Chou; Thomas M. Williams; William Conner; Brian J. Williams
2011-01-01
Digital vegetation is the computerized representation, with either virtual images or animations, of vegetation types and conditions based on current measurements or ecological models. Digital vegetation can be useful in evaluating past, present, or future land use; changes in vegetation linked to climate change; or restoration efforts. Digital vegetation can be...
Duprat-Oualid, Fanny; Begeot, Carole; Rius, Damien; Millet, Laurent; Magny, Michel
2016-04-01
changes at millennial/pluri-millennial scale. The well-known afforestation of the Late-Glacial interstadial and the Holocene (with pine and hazel-dominated forests respectively) are recorded. Our results also reveal a three-phase sequence in the Last-Glacial. The persistence of very cold conditions between 24 and 30 kyr cal. BP favored a drastic steppe grassland. In contrast, trees proportion increased during the two other periods (14.7-24 and 30-45 kyr cal. BP) in correlation with a relative favorable climate. Second, the respons of vegetation to centennial scale climatic events is characterized by the successive rapid establishment of two different landscapes. GS are dominated by steppic taxa (Artemisia, Helianthemum), whereas more or less complete ecological successions Juniperus-Betula-Pinus seem to occur for most GIs when edaphic conditions became more favorable. Therefore, we suggest a global forcing defined by the strong impact of the climate variability on vegetation changes. We also propose the contribution of local characteristics (latitude, topography) which favored flora migration and long distance pollen inputs from refuge areas. Heiri O., Koinig K.A., Spötl C., Barrett S, Brauer A., Drescher-Schneider R., Gaar D., Ivy-Ochs S., Kerschner H., Luetscher M., Moran A., Nicolussi K., Preusser F., Schmidt R., Schoeneich P., Schwörer C., Sprafke T., Terhorst B., Tinner W. -2014- "Palaeoclimate records 60-8 ka in the Austrian and Swiss Alps and their forelands", Quaternary Science Review, 106 : 186-205.
Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.
2017-08-01
The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over
Climate effects on vegetation vitality at the treeline of boreal forests of Mongolia
Klinge, Michael; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Erasmi, Stefan; Nikolaus Karger, Dirk; Hauck, Markus
2018-03-01
In northern Mongolia, at the southern boundary of the Siberian boreal forest belt, the distribution of steppe and forest is generally linked to climate and topography, making this region highly sensitive to climate change and human impact. Detailed investigations on the limiting parameters of forest and steppe in different biomes provide necessary information for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and prognosis of potential landscape change. In this study, remote sensing data and gridded climate data were analyzed in order to identify main distribution patterns of forest and steppe in Mongolia and to detect environmental factors driving forest development. Forest distribution and vegetation vitality derived from the normalized differentiated vegetation index (NDVI) were investigated for the three types of boreal forest present in Mongolia (taiga, subtaiga and forest-steppe), which cover a total area of 73 818 km2. In addition to the forest type areas, the analysis focused on subunits of forest and nonforested areas at the upper and lower treeline, which represent ecological borders between vegetation types. Climate and NDVI data were analyzed for a reference period of 15 years from 1999 to 2013. The presented approach for treeline delineation by identifying representative sites mostly bridges local forest disturbances like fire or tree cutting. Moreover, this procedure provides a valuable tool to distinguish the potential forested area. The upper treeline generally rises from 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the northeast to 2700 m a.s.l. in the south. The lower treeline locally emerges at 1000 m a.s.l. in the northern taiga and rises southward to 2500 m a.s.l. The latitudinal gradient of both treelines turns into a longitudinal one on the eastern flank of mountain ranges due to higher aridity caused by rain-shadow effects. Less productive trees in terms of NDVI were identified at both the upper and lower treeline in relation to the respective total boreal forest
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z. Yin
2014-05-01
Full Text Available A myriad of interactions exist between vegetation and local climate for arid and semi-arid regions. Vegetation function, structure and individual behavior have large impacts on carbon–water–energy balances, which consequently influence local climate variability that, in turn, feeds back to the vegetation. In this study, a conceptual vegetation structure scheme is formulated and tested in the new Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model (BOSVM to explore the importance of vegetation structure and vegetation adaptation to water stress on equilibrium biomass states. Surface energy, water and carbon fluxes are simulated for a range of vegetation structures across a precipitation gradient in West Africa and optimal vegetation structures that maximize biomass for each precipitation regime are determined. Two different strategies of vegetation adaptation to water stress are included. Under dry conditions vegetation tries to maximize the water use efficiency and leaf area index as it tries to maximize carbon gain. However, a negative feedback mechanism in the vegetation–soil water system is found as the vegetation also tries to minimize its cover to optimize the surrounding bare ground area from which water can be extracted, thereby forming patches of vertical vegetation. Under larger precipitation, a positive feedback mechanism is found in which vegetation tries to maximize its cover as it then can reduce water loss from bare soil while having maximum carbon gain due to a large leaf area index. The competition between vegetation and bare soil determines a transition between a "survival" state to a "growing" state.
Vegetation response to extreme climate events on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2010
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John, Ranjeet; Chen Jiquan; Ouyang Zutao; Becker, Richard; Xiao Jingfeng; Samanta, Arindam; Ganguly, Sangram; Yuan Wenping; Batkhishig, Ochirbat
2013-01-01
Climate change has led to more frequent extreme winters (aka, dzud) and summer droughts on the Mongolian Plateau during the last decade. Among these events, the 2000–2002 combined summer drought–dzud and 2010 dzud were the most severe on vegetation. We examined the vegetation response to these extremes through the past decade across the Mongolian Plateau as compared to decadal means. We first assessed the severity and extent of drought using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). We then examined the effects of drought by mapping anomalies in vegetation indices (EVI, EVI2) and land surface temperature derived from MODIS and AVHRR for the period of 2000–2010. We found that the standardized anomalies of vegetation indices exhibited positively skewed frequency distributions in dry years, which were more common for the desert biome than for grasslands. For the desert biome, the dry years (2000–2001, 2005 and 2009) were characterized by negative anomalies with peak values between −1.5 and −0.5 and were statistically different (P 2 = 65 and 60, p 2 = 53, p < 0.05). Our results showed significant differences in the responses to extreme climatic events (summer drought and dzud) between the desert and grassland biomes on the Plateau. (letter)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tarasov, P. [Free University, Institute of Geological Sciences, Palaeontology Department, Berlin (Germany); Granoszewski, W. [Polish Geological Institute, Carpathian Branch, Krakow (Poland); Bezrukova, E.; Abzaeva, A. [Siberian Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geochemistry, Irkutsk (Russian Federation); Brewer, S. [CEREGE CNRS/University P. Cezanne, UMR 6635, BP80, Aix-en-Provence (France); Nita, M. [University of Silesia, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Sosnowiec (Poland); Oberhaensli, H. [GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam (Germany)
2005-11-01
Changes in mean temperature of the coldest (T{sub c}) and warmest month (T{sub w}), annual precipitation (P{sub ann}) and moisture index ({alpha}) were reconstructed from a continuous pollen record from Lake Baikal, Russia. The pollen sequence CON01-603-2 (53 57'N, 108 54'E) was recovered from a 386 m water depth in the Continent Ridge and dated to ca. 130-114.8 ky BP. This time interval covers the complete last interglacial (LI), corresponding to MIS 5e. Results of pollen analysis and pollen-based quantitative biome reconstruction show pronounced changes in the regional vegetation throughout the record. Shrubby tundra covered the area at the beginning of MIS 5e (ca. 130-128 ky), consistent with the end of the Middle Pleistocene glaciation. The late glacial climate was characterised by low winter and summer temperatures (T{sub c}{proportional_to} -38 to -35 C and T{sub w}{proportional_to}11-13 C) and low annual precipitation (P{sub ann}{proportional_to}300 mm). However, the wide spread of tundra vegetation suggests rather moist environments associated with low temperatures and evaporation (reconstructed {alpha}{proportional_to}1). Tundra was replaced by boreal conifer forest (taiga) by ca. 128 ky BP, suggesting a transition to the interglacial. Taiga-dominant phase lasted until ca. 117.4 ky BP, e.g. about 10 ky. The most favourable climate conditions occurred during the first half of the LI. P{sub ann} reached 500 mm soon after 128 ky BP. However, temperature changed more gradually. Maximum values of T{sub c}{proportional_to} -20 C and T{sub w}{proportional_to}16-17 C are reconstructed from about 126 ky BP. Conditions became gradually colder after ca. 121 ky BP. T{sub c} dropped to {proportional_to} -27 C and T{sub w} to {proportional_to}15 C by 119.5 ky BP. The reconstructed increase in continentality was accompanied by a decrease in P{sub ann} to {proportional_to}400-420 mm. However, the climate was still humid enough ({alpha}{proportional_to}0.9) to
Kim, Y.; Wang, G.
2006-05-01
Soil moisture-vegetation-precipitation feedbacks tend to enhance soil moisture memory in some areas of the globe, which contributes to the subseasonal and seasonal climate prediction skill. In this study, the impact of vegetation on precipitation over North America is investigated using a coupled land-atmosphere model CAM3- CLM3. The coupled model has been modified to include a predictive vegetation phenology scheme and validated against the MODIS data. Vegetation phenology is modeled by updating the leaf area index (LAI) daily in response to cumulative and concurrent hydrometeorological conditions. First, driven with the climatological SST, a large group of 5-member ensembles of simulations from the late spring and summer to the end of year are generated with the different initial conditions of soil moisture. The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies on subsequent precipitation is examined with the predictive vegetation phenology scheme disabled/enabled ("SM"/"SM_Veg" ensembles). The simulated climate differences between "SM" and "SM_Veg" ensembles represent the role of vegetation in soil moisture-vegetation- precipitation feedback. Experiments in this study focus on how the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on their characteristics, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage and vertical depth, and further how it is modified by the interactive vegetation. Our results, for example, suggest that the impact of late spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident in subsequent precipitation until early summer when local convective precipitation dominates. With the summer wet soil moisture anomalies, vegetation tends to enhance the positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation, while vegetation tends to suppress such positive feedback with the late spring anomalies. Second, the impact of vegetation feedback is investigated by driving the model with the inter-annually varying monthly SST (1983-1994). With the
Mediterranean biomes: Evolution of their vegetation, floras and climate
Rundel, Philip W.; Arroyo, Mary T.K.; Cowling, R.M.; Keeley, J. E.; Lamont, B.B.; Vargas, Pablo
2016-01-01
Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) possess the highest levels of plant species richness in the world outside of the wet tropics. Sclerophyll vegetation similar to today’s mediterranean-type shrublands was already present on oligotrophic soils in the wet and humid climate of the Cretaceous, with fire-adapted Paleogene lineages in southwestern Australia and the Cape Region. The novel MTC seasonality present since the mid-Miocene has allowed colonization of MTEs from a regional species pool with associated diversification. Fire persistence has been a primary driving factor for speciation in four of the five regions. Understanding the regional patterns of plant species diversity among the MTEs involves complex interactions of geologic and climatic histories for each region as well as ecological factors that have promoted diversification in the Neogene and Quaternary. A critical element of species richness for many MTE lineages has been their ability to speciate and persist at fine spatial scales, with low rates of extinction.
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Mmoto L. Masubelele
2013-10-01
Conservation implications: We provided an historical assessment of the pattern of vegetation and climatic trends that can help evaluate many of South African National Parks’ biodiversity monitoring programmes, especially relating to habitat change. It will help arid parks in assessing the trajectories of vegetation in response to herbivory, climate and management interventions.
Kotthoff, U.; Greenwood, D. R.; McCarthy, F. M. G.; Müller-Navarra, K.; Prader, S.; Hesselbo, S. P.
2014-08-01
We investigated the palynology of sediment cores from Site M0027 of IODP (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program) Expedition 313 on the New Jersey shallow shelf to examine vegetation and climate dynamics on the east coast of North America between 33 and 13 million years ago and to assess the impact of over-regional climate events on the region. Palynological results are complemented with pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions. Our results indicate that the hinterland vegetation of the New Jersey shelf was characterized by oak-hickory forests in the lowlands and conifer-dominated vegetation in the highlands from the early Oligocene to the middle Miocene. The Oligocene witnessed several expansions of conifer forest, probably related to cooling events. The pollen-based climate data imply an increase in annual temperatures from ∼11.5 °C to more than 16 °C during the Oligocene. The Mi-1 cooling event at the onset of the Miocene is reflected by an expansion of conifers and mean annual temperature decrease of ∼4 °C, from ∼16 °C to ∼12 °C around 23 million years before present. Relatively low annual temperatures are also recorded for several samples during an interval around ∼20 million years before present, which may reflect the Mi-1a and the Mi-1aa cooling events. Generally, the Miocene ecosystem and climate conditions were very similar to those of the Oligocene. Miocene grasslands, as known from other areas in the USA during that time period, are not evident for the hinterland of the New Jersey shelf, possibly reflecting moisture from the proto-Gulf Stream. The palaeovegetation data reveal stable conditions during the mid-Miocene climatic optimum at ∼15 million years before present, with only a minor increase in deciduous-evergreen mixed forest taxa and a decrease in swamp forest taxa. Pollen-based annual temperature reconstructions show average annual temperatures of ∼14 °C during the mid-Miocene climatic optimum, ∼2 °C higher than today
Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter
2011-11-01
The Palaeogene was the most recent greenhouse period on Earth. Especially for the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene, several superimposed short-term hyperthermal events have been described, including extremes such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Major faunal and floral turnovers in the marine and terrestrial realms were recorded in association with these events. High-resolution palynological analysis of the early Middle Eocene maar lake sediments at Messel, near Darmstadt, Germany, provides an insight into the dynamics of a climax vegetation during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate in a time span without significant climatic excursions. Numerical techniques like detrended correspondence analysis and wavelet analysis have been applied to recognize cyclic fluctuations and long-term trends in the vegetation through a time interval of approximately 640 kyr. Based on the numerical zoning of the pollen diagram, three phases in the development of the vegetation may be distinguished. Throughout these phases, the climax vegetation did not change substantially in qualitative composition, but a trend towards noticeably less humid conditions probably in combination with a drop of the water level in the lake may be recognized. A shift in algal population from the freshwater dinoflagellate cyst Messelodinium thielepfeifferae to a dominance of Botryococcus in the uppermost part of the core is interpreted as a response to changes in acidity and nutrient availability within the lake. Time series analyses of pollen assemblages show that variations in the Milankovitch range of eccentricity, obliquity and precession can be distinguished. In addition, fluctuations in the sub-Milankovitch range are indicated. This demonstrates that floral changes during steady depositional conditions in the Middle Eocene of Messel were controlled by orbital forcing.
J. Azuara; N. Combourieu-Nebout; V. Lebreton; F. Mazier; S. D. Müller; L. Dezileau
2015-01-01
Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics ove...
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Li, Changbin; Yang, Linshan; Wang, Shuaibing; Yang, Wenjin; Zhu, Gaofeng; Qi, Jiaguo; Zou, Songbing; Zhang, Feng
2014-01-01
The 30-year normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series from AVHRR/MODIS satellite sensors was used in this study to assess the regional vegetation dynamic changes in the Tao River Basin, which cuts across the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) and the Southwestern Loess Plateau (SLP). First, principal component and correlation analyses were carried out to determine the key climatic variables driving ecological change in the region. Then, regression models were tested to correlate NDVI with the selected climatic variables to determine their predictive power. Finally, Sen’s slope method was used to determine how terrestrial vegetation has responded to regional climate change in the region. The results indicated an average winter season NDVI value of 0.14 in the ETP but only 0.04 in the SLP. Primarily driven by increasing temperature, vegetation growth has generally been enhanced since 1981; spring NDVI increased by 0.03 every 10 years in the ETP and 0.02 in the SLP. Further, results from trend analyses suggest vegetation growth in the ETP shifted to earlier-start and earlier-end dates, however in the SLP, the growing season has been extended with an earlier-start and later-end date. The precipitation threshold for vegetation germination, measured by the cumulative spring rainfall, was found to be 44 mm for both the ETP and SLP. (paper)
A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies
Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.
2017-12-01
Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.
Bartowitz, K.; Morrison, P.; Romain-Bondi, K.; Smith, C. W.; Warne, L.; McGill, D.
2016-12-01
aid in management of the state-threatened species. The combination of severe fire and extreme heat/drought may result in shifts from shrub-steppe to grass/forb communities, as well as range contraction of ponderosa pine forests. The study reveals the importance of subsequent climatic conditions on vegetation recovery after a fire.
On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change
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Kelly K. Caylor
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.
Zhang, Baoqing; He, Chansheng; Burnham, Morey; Zhang, Lanhui
2016-01-01
In this study, the coupling effects of climate aridity and vegetation restoration on runoff and sediment yield over the Loess Plateau were examined and characterized. To take into consideration the complexity of drought, as well as the varied strengths and weaknesses of different drought measures, two drought indices are selected to identify and evaluate drought variability. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were obtained to monitor and express spatiotemporal variations in vegetation cover. The results show that most regions of the Loess Plateau experienced increasingly severe droughts over the past 40years, and these regions comprise the major source of the Yellow River sediment. Climatic drying initially occurred in the 1990s, and became statistically significant in 2000s. The increasingly severe droughts could negatively impact surface and groundwater supplies as well as soil water storage, but may also minimize surface runoff yield, which is one of the major causes of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. Vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau was significantly improved after the implementation of "Grain for Green" project, which were helpful for controlling severe soil erosion. With the impacts of the construction of check dams, terraces and large reservoirs, runoff and sediment yield over the Loess Plateau initially exhibited downward trends between 1970 and 1990. After 1990, with the effects of the climate warming and drying, a second sharp reduction in runoff and sediment yield occurred. The coupling effects of climate aridity and vegetation restoration have led to a third significant decrease in runoff and sediment yield over the Loess Plateau after 2000. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.
2017-12-01
We use a hydrologic model to analyze hillslope runoff under a range of climate and land use conditions in the San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB), central coastal California, including contemporary land use and incremental deforestation. The SLRB is a heavily forested watershed with chronically overdrafted aquifers; in some areas, groundwater levels have been lowered by >50 m in recent decades. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can help mitigate declines in groundwater storage, routing excess surface flows to locations where they can infiltrate. We are especially interested in opportunities for collection of stormwater runoff, particularly where development and other changes in landuse have increased hill slope runoff. To assess hillslope runoff at the subwatershed scale (10-100 ha; 25-250 ac), we apply the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to a high-resolution, digital elevation model and populate the simulation with area- and density-weighted vegetation and soil parameters calculated from high resolution input data. We also develop and apply a catalog of dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios from the historic record (1981-2014). In addition, we simulate conditions ranging from 0 to 100 percent of redwoods harvested (representing the mid-1800s to 1930s logging era) using a historical land use data set to alter soil and vegetation conditions. Results under contemporary land use suggest there are ample opportunities to establish MAR projects during all climate scenarios; hill slope runoff generation is spatially variable and on average exceeds 23,000 ac-ft/yr (3.2 in/yr) during the driest climate scenario. Preliminary results from the deforestation scenarios show notable increases in hillslope runoff with progressive redwood harvesting. Relative to pre-logging conditions, between 1.1 in (dry climates) and 1.5 in (wet climates) more runoff is generated under contemporary conditions, with most of the runoff increase occurring in urban areas. These modeling methods
Ozone impacts on vegetation in a nitrogen enriched and changing climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mills, Gina; Harmens, Harry; Wagg, Serena; Sharps, Katrina; Hayes, Felicity; Fowler, David; Sutton, Mark; Davies, Bill
2016-01-01
This paper provides a process-oriented perspective on the combined effects of ozone (O_3), climate change and/or nitrogen (N) on vegetation. Whereas increasing CO_2 in controlled environments or open-top chambers often ameliorates effects of O_3 on leaf physiology, growth and C allocation, this is less likely in the field. Combined responses to elevated temperature and O_3 have rarely been studied even though some critical growth stages such as seed initiation are sensitive to both. Under O_3 exposure, many species have smaller roots, thereby enhancing drought sensitivity. Of the 68 species assessed for stomatal responses to ozone, 22.5% were unaffected, 33.5% had sluggish or increased opening and 44% stomatal closure. The beneficial effect of N on root development was lost at higher O_3 treatments whilst the effects of increasing O_3 on root biomass became more pronounced as N increased. Both responses to gradual changes in pollutants and climate and those under extreme weather events require further study. - Highlights: • CO_2 amelioration of O_3 effects on leaf physiology are less likely in the field. • Both extremes of temperature and O_3 impact on critical growth stages. • Many species are more sensitive to drought as a result of exposure to O_3 pollution. • The beneficial effect of N on root development is lost at higher O_3 treatments. • The effects of O_3 on root biomass are higher at high than low N. - A process-oriented perspective on the combined effects of ozone, climate change and/or nitrogen on vegetation.
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Jian Yang
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Net primary productivity (NPP is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this study, NPP was estimated based on two models and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spaectroradiometer (MODIS data. The spatiotemporal patterns of NPP and the correlations with climate factors and vegetation phenology were then analyzed. Our results showed that NPP derived from MODIS performed well in China. Spatially, NPP decreased from the southeast toward the northwest. Temporally, NPP showed a nonlinear increasing trend at a national scale, but the magnitude became slow after 2004. At a regional scale, NPP in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau showed a nonlinear increasing trend, while the NPP decreased in most areas of Southern China. The decreases in NPP were more than offset by the increases. At the biome level, all vegetation types displayed an increasing trend, except for shrub and evergreen broad forests (EBF. Moreover, a turning point year occurred for all vegetation types, except for EBF. Generally, climatic factors and Length of Season were all positively correlated with the NPP, while the relationships were much more diverse at a regional level. The direct effect of solar radiation on the NPP was larger (0.31 than precipitation (0.25 and temperature (0.07. Our results indicated that China could mitigate climate warming at a regional and/or global scale to some extent during the time period of 2001–2014.
Climate controls photosynthetic capacity more than leaf nitrogen contents
Ali, A. A.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.
2013-12-01
Global vegetation models continue to lack the ability to make reliable predictions because the photosynthetic capacity varies a lot with growth conditions, season and among species. It is likely that vegetation models link photosynthetic capacity to concurrent changes in leaf nitrogen content only. To improve the predictions of the vegetation models, there is an urgent need to review species growth conditions and their seasonal response to changing climate. We sampled the global distribution of the Vcmax (maximum carboxylation rates) data of various species across different environmental gradients from the literature and standardized its value to 25 degree Celcius. We found that species explained the largest variation in (1) the photosynthetic capacity and (2) the proportion of nitrogen allocated for rubisco (PNcb). Surprisingly, climate variables explained more variations in photosynthetic capacity as well as PNcb than leaf nitrogen content and/or specific leaf area. The chief climate variables that explain variation in photosynthesis and PNcb were radiation, temperature and daylength. Our analysis suggests that species have the greatest control over photosynthesis and PNcb. Further, compared to leaf nitrogen content and/or specific leaf area, climate variables have more control over photosynthesis and PNcb. Therefore, climate variables should be incorporated in the global vegetation models when making predictions about the photosynthetic capacity.
Community responses to extreme climatic conditions
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Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].
Empirical methods for estimating future climatic conditions
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Anon.
1990-01-01
Applying the empirical approach permits the derivation of estimates of the future climate that are nearly independent of conclusions based on theoretical (model) estimates. This creates an opportunity to compare these results with those derived from the model simulations of the forthcoming changes in climate, thus increasing confidence in areas of agreement and focusing research attention on areas of disagreements. The premise underlying this approach for predicting anthropogenic climate change is based on associating the conditions of the climatic optimums of the Holocene, Eemian, and Pliocene with corresponding stages of the projected increase of mean global surface air temperature. Provided that certain assumptions are fulfilled in matching the value of the increased mean temperature for a certain epoch with the model-projected change in global mean temperature in the future, the empirical approach suggests that relationships leading to the regional variations in air temperature and other meteorological elements could be deduced and interpreted based on use of empirical data describing climatic conditions for past warm epochs. Considerable care must be taken, of course, in making use of these spatial relationships, especially in accounting for possible large-scale differences that might, in some cases, result from different factors contributing to past climate changes than future changes and, in other cases, might result from the possible influences of changes in orography and geography on regional climatic conditions over time
Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald
2015-04-01
not so much at medium elevations. (ii) Considering climate change, the variability that is due to the GCM-RCM chains is much greater than the variability induced by the uncertainty in the initial climatic conditions. (iii) The uncertainties caused by the intrinsic stochasticity in the DVMs and by the random generation of the climate time-series are negligible. Overall, our results indicate that DVMs are quite sensitive to the climate data, highlighting particularly (1) the limitations of using one single multi-model average climate change scenario in climate impact studies and (2) the need to better consider the uncertainty in climate model outputs for projecting future vegetation changes.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soad, A.A.A.
2013-01-01
Date palms of 10 year old Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana varieties from Al-Madina, Saudi Arabia were evaluated under the agro-climatic conditions of Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan throughout the growing seasons from 2009 to 2011. The results obtained indicated better fruit quality similar to those fruits obtained from the original place of origin. The palms of the three varieties were thriving successfully. The edible stage of vars. Ajwa and Safawi is tamer and rutab for var. Ruthana. The fruit was harvested early from 13 to 20th of July before the onset of monsoons. The fruit size of vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana at their edible stages were 3.16, 4.25 and 3.52 cm long, and 2.31, 2.05 and 2.38 cm in diameter, respectively. The average fruit and seed weight of vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana were 11.42, 10.49 and 12.42 g, and 1.23, 0.88 and 1.1 g, respectively. The fruit flesh percentage in vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana reached 89.14%, 90.84% and 90.92%, respectively. It was found that the climatic conditions of Khairpur are suitable for the cultivation of these three exotic varieties. The vegetative, flowering and fruit characteristics of the three varieties were described, and the impact of climatic conditions on fruit quality was discussed in this study. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hutchison, B.A.; Taylor, F.G.; Wendt, R.L.
1982-04-01
The space-conditioning energy conservation potentials of landscapes designed to ameliorate building microclimates are evaluated. The physical bases for vegetative modifications of climate are discussed, and results of past study of the effects of vegetation on space-conditioning energy consumption in buildings are reviewed. The state-of-the-art of energy-conserving landscape designs is assessed and recommendations are presented for further research.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schollert, Michelle
common arctic plant species, illustrating the great importance of vegetation composition for determining ecosystem BVOC emissions. Additionally, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses in common arctic plant species to effects of climate change: warming, shading and snow addition. Against...... treatment effects on BVOC emissions. Furthermore, the anatomy of arctic plants seems to respond differently to warming than species at lower latitudes. The results in this thesis demonstrate the complexity of the effects of climate change on BVOC emissions and leaf anatomy of arctic plant species...... emissions from the arctic region are assumed to be low, but data from the region is lacking. BVOC emissions are furthermore expected to change drastically due to the rapidly proceeding climate change in the Arctic, which can provide a feedback to climate warming of unknown direction and magnitude. BVOC...
Azuara , J; Combourieu-Nebout , N; Lebreton , V; Mazier , F; Müller , S D; Dezileau , L ,
2015-01-01
International audience; Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamic...
Topographically-controlled site conditions drive vegetation pattern on inland dunes in Poland
Sewerniak, Piotr; Jankowski, Michał
2017-07-01
The inland dunes of Central Europe are commonly overplanted by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) monocultures in which the primary occurrence of the natural vegetation pattern is obliterated. We hypothesize that on naturally revegetated inland dunes the pattern is clear and driven by topographically-controlled site conditions. To test this hypothesis, we addressed the following research questions: (1) Does topography drive vegetation patterns on inland dunes and if so, what are main differences between vegetation in varying relief positions? (2) To what extent does topography involve the variability of microclimates and of soil properties, and how does the topographically-induced differentiation of these site conditions control vegetation patterns? We conducted interdisciplinary studies (applying floristic, pedological and microclimatic research techniques) on a naturally revegetated inland dune area situated on a military artillery training ground near Toruń, northern Poland. We investigated vegetation patterns with reference to three topographical position variants (north-facing slopes, south-facing slopes, and intra-dune depressions). We found distinct differences in vegetation characteristics covering the aforementioned topographical positions. This primarily concerned species composition of ground vegetation: Calluna vulgaris was dominant species on north-facing slopes, Corynephorus canescens on south-facing slopes, while Calamagrostis epigejos in intra-dune depressions. In comparison to dune slopes, the depressions were characterized by much higher biodiversity of vascular plant species. This followed the most favorable soil conditions for the existence of plants (higher moisture and nutrient pools) occurring in low topographical positions. However, tree succession was most advanced not in depressions, where the competitive impact of tall grasses on seedlings was recognized, but on north-facing slopes. Based on our results, we formulated some suggestions, which
Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model
Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.
2006-12-01
One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.
Climate effects on vegetation vitality at the treeline of boreal forests of Mongolia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Klinge
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In northern Mongolia, at the southern boundary of the Siberian boreal forest belt, the distribution of steppe and forest is generally linked to climate and topography, making this region highly sensitive to climate change and human impact. Detailed investigations on the limiting parameters of forest and steppe in different biomes provide necessary information for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and prognosis of potential landscape change. In this study, remote sensing data and gridded climate data were analyzed in order to identify main distribution patterns of forest and steppe in Mongolia and to detect environmental factors driving forest development. Forest distribution and vegetation vitality derived from the normalized differentiated vegetation index (NDVI were investigated for the three types of boreal forest present in Mongolia (taiga, subtaiga and forest–steppe, which cover a total area of 73 818 km2. In addition to the forest type areas, the analysis focused on subunits of forest and nonforested areas at the upper and lower treeline, which represent ecological borders between vegetation types. Climate and NDVI data were analyzed for a reference period of 15 years from 1999 to 2013. The presented approach for treeline delineation by identifying representative sites mostly bridges local forest disturbances like fire or tree cutting. Moreover, this procedure provides a valuable tool to distinguish the potential forested area. The upper treeline generally rises from 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l. in the northeast to 2700 m a.s.l. in the south. The lower treeline locally emerges at 1000 m a.s.l. in the northern taiga and rises southward to 2500 m a.s.l. The latitudinal gradient of both treelines turns into a longitudinal one on the eastern flank of mountain ranges due to higher aridity caused by rain-shadow effects. Less productive trees in terms of NDVI were identified at both the upper and lower treeline in relation
Ceccato, P.
2015-12-01
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.
Climatic growing conditions of Jatropha curcas L.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Maes, W.H.; Achten, W.M.J.; Muys, B. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Trabucco, A. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); International Water Management Institute (IWMI), P.O. Box 2075, Colombo (Sri Lanka)
2009-10-15
The massive investment in new jatropha plantations worldwide is not sufficiently based on a profound scientific knowledge of its ecology. In this article, we define the climatic conditions in its area of natural distribution by combining the locations of herbarium specimens with corresponding climatic information, and compare these conditions with those in 83 jatropha plantations worldwide. Most specimens (87%) were found in tropical savannah and monsoon climates (A{sub m}, A{sub w}) and in temperate climates without dry season and with hot summer (C{sub fa}), while very few were found in semi-arid (B{sub S}) and none in arid climates (B{sub W}). Ninety-five percent of the specimens grew in areas with a mean annual rainfall above 944 mm year{sup -1} and an average minimum temperature of the coldest month (T{sub min}) above 10.5 C. The mean annual temperature range was 19.3-27.2 C. The climatic conditions at the plantations were different from those of the natural distribution specimens for all studied climatic variables, except average maximum temperature in the warmest month. Roughly 40% of the plantations were situated in regions with a drier climate than in 95% of the area of the herbarium specimens, and 28% of the plantations were situated in areas with T{sub min} below 10.5 C. The observed precipitation preferences indicate that jatropha is not common in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. Plantations in arid and semi-arid areas hold the risk of low productivity or irrigation requirement. Plantations in regions with frost risk hold the risk of damage due to frost. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mushtaq, S.; Amjad, M.; Ziaf, K.; Cheema, K.L.
2013-01-01
Onion varieties are very specific in their photoperiod and vernalization requirements and therefore vary for yield, yield related traits and bolting in a specific agro-climate. Therefore, performance of nineteen onion varieties for these traits was evaluated at Vegetable Research Institute, Faisalabad. The maximum bolting percentage was recorded in Desi Red (46.67%) that indicates less vernalization requirement of this variety while it was the minimum in Faisal Red and VRIO-6 (13.33%). The cultivar Phulkara produced larger size bulbs (73.22 mm diameter) as well as highest yield (21.90 t ha/sup -1/) and bulb to neck diameter ratio (6.75). Similarly, minimum weight loss during curing was observed in Desi Red (4.64%), Pusa Red (4.76%) and Phulkara (4.83%), indicating higher dry matter contents while maximum weight loss (6%) was recorded in VRIO-6. Overall results revealed that both Phulkara and Desi Red are excellent for processing while Dark Red for cooking purpose under agro-climatic conditions of Faisalabad. (author)
Vegetation Response to Climate Change in the Southern Part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau at Basinal Scale
Liu, X.; Liu, C.; Kang, Q.; Yin, B.
2018-04-01
Global climate change has significantly affected vegetation variation in the third-polar region of the world - the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As one of the most important indicators of vegetation variation (growth, coverage and tempo-spatial change), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is widely employed to study the response of vegetation to climate change. However, a long-term series analysis cannot be achieved because a single data source is constrained by time sequence. Therefore, a new framework was presented in this paper to extend the product series of monthly NDVI, taking as an example the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, one of the most important river basins in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. NDVI products were acquired from two public sources: Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). After having been extended using the new framework, the new time series of NDVI covers a 384 months period (1982-2013), 84 months longer than previous time series of NDVI product, greatly facilitating NDVI related scientific research. In the new framework, the Gauss Filtering Method was employed to filter out noise in the NDVI product. Next, the standard method was introduced to enhance the comparability of the two data sources, and a pixel-based regression method was used to construct NDVI-extending models with one pixel after another. The extended series of NDVI fit well with original AVHRR-NDVI. With the extended time-series, temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity of NDVI in the study area were studied. Principal influencing factors on NDVI were further determined. The monthly NDVI is highly correlated with air temperature and precipitation in terms of climatic change wherein the spatially averaged NDVI slightly increases in the summer and has increased in temperature and decreased in precipitation in the 32 years period. The spatial heterogeneity of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Betancourt, J.L.; Biggar, N.
1985-06-01
Packrat midden sequences from two caves (elevations 1585 and 2195 m; 5200 and 7200 ft) southwest of the Abajo Mountains in southeast Utah record vegetation changes that are attributed to climatic changes occurring during the last 13,000 years. These data are useful in assessing potential future climates at proposed nuclear waste sites in the area. Paleoclimates are reconstructed by defining modern elevational analogs for the vegetation assemblages identified in the middens. Based on the midden record, a climate most extreme from the present occurred prior to approximately 10,000 years before present (BP), when mean annual temperature was probably 3 to 4C (5.5 to 7F) cooler than present. However, cooling could not have exceeded 5C (9F) at 1585 m (5200 ft). Accompanying mean annual precipitation is estimated to have been from 35 to 140% greater than at present, with rainfall concentrated in the winter months. Vegetational changes beginning approximately 10,000 years BP are attributed to increased summer and mean annual temperatures, a decreasing frequency of spring freezes, and a shift from winter- to summer-dominant rainfall. Greater effective moisture than present is inferred at both cave sites from approximately 8000 to 4000 years BP. Modern flora was present at both sites by about 2000 years BP
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grant M. Casady
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Post-fire vegetation response is influenced by the interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors such as topography, climate, vegetation type and restoration practices. Previous research has analyzed the relationship of some of these factors to vegetation response, but few have taken into account the effects of pre-fire restoration practices. We selected three wildfires that occurred in Bandelier National Monument (New Mexico, USA between 1999 and 2007 and three adjacent unburned control areas. We used interannual trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS to assess vegetation response, which we define as the average potential photosynthetic activity through the summer monsoon. Topography, fire severity and restoration treatment were obtained and used to explain post-fire vegetation response. We applied parametric (Multiple Linear Regressions-MLR and non-parametric tests (Classification and Regression Trees-CART to analyze effects of fire severity, terrain and pre-fire restoration treatments (variable used in CART on post-fire vegetation response. MLR results showed strong relationships between vegetation response and environmental factors (p < 0.1, however the explanatory factors changed among treatments. CART results showed that beside fire severity and topography, pre-fire treatments strongly impact post-fire vegetation response. Results for these three fires show that pre-fire restoration conditions along with local environmental factors constitute key processes that modify post-fire vegetation response.
Terrestrial transect study on driving mechanism of vegetation changes
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
2008-01-01
In terms of Chinese climate-vegetation model based on the classification of plant functional types, to- gether with climatic data from 1951 to 1980 and two future climatic scenarios (SRES-A2 and SRES-B2) in China from the highest and the lowest emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, the distribution patterns of vegetation types and their changes along the Northeast China Transect (NECT) and the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC) were simulated in order to understand the driving mechanisms of vegetation changes under climatic change. The results indicated that the vegetation distribution patterns would change significantly under future climate, and the major factors driving the vegetation changes were water and heat. However, the responses of various vegetation types to the changes in water and heat factors were obviously different. The vegetation changes were more sensi- tive to heat factors than to water factors. Thus, in the future climate warming will significantly affect vegetation distribution patterns.
Analysis of the Driving Forces in Vegetation Variation in the Grain for Green Program Region, China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wang Hao
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The Chinese government introduced six ecological restoration programs to improve its natural environment. Although these programs have proven successful in improving local environmental conditions, some studies have questioned their effectiveness when regions suffer from extreme weather conditions. Using the Grain for Green Program (GGP region as a study area, we estimated vegetation activities in the GGP region from 2000 to 2010 to clarify the trends in vegetation growth and their driving forces. The results showed that: (1 vegetation activities improved in the GGP region during 2000-2010, with 58.94% of the area showing an increased trend in the NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index; (2 26.33% of the increased vegetation was caused by human interference, and 11.61% by climate variation, human activity was the dominant cause, and resulted in 54.68% of the degradation compared to 4.74% from climate change; and, (3 the contribution of different land use types to the NDVI interannual variations showed that high contribution regions were focused in the arid and semiarid areas, where the vegetation growth is associated with variations in recipitation and temperature. However, conversions between farmland and grassland or forest had a significant effect on the change in the NDVI trend. Therefore, although climate conditions can affect vegetation growth, human activities are more important in vegetation changes, and appropriate human activities would contribute to its continual improvement. Hence, we recommend establishing an assessment and scientific management mechanism for eco-risks in the design and management of ecosystem restoration programs.
Mishra, N. B.; Mainali, K. P.
2016-12-01
Climatic changes along with anthropogenic disturbances are causing dramatic ecological impacts in mid to high latitude mountain vegetation including in the Himalayas which are ecologically sensitive environments. Given the challenges associated with in situ vegetation monitoring in the Himalayas, remote sensing based quantification of vegetation dynamics can provide essential ecological information on changes in vegetation activity that may consist of alternative sequence of greening and/or browning periods. This study utilized a trend break analysis procedure for detection of monotonic as well as abrupt (either interruption or reversal) trend changes in smoothed normalized difference vegetation index satellite time-series data over the Himalayas. Overall, trend breaks in vegetation greenness showed high spatio-temporal variability in distribution considering elevation, ecoregion and land cover/use stratifications. Interrupted greening was spatially most dominant in all Himalayan ecoregions followed by abrupt browning. Areas showing trend reversal and monotonic trends appeared minority. Trend type distribution was strongly dependent on elevation as majority of greening (with or without interruption) occurred at lower elevation areas at higher elevation were dominantly. Ecoregion based stratification of trend types highlighted some exception to this elevational dependence as high altitude ecoregions of western Himalayas showed significantly less browning compared to the ecoregions in eastern Himalaya. Land cover/use based analysis of trend distribution showed that interrupted greening was most dominant in closed needleleafed forest following by rainfed cropland and mosaic croplands while interrupted browning most dominant in closed to open herbaceous vegetation found at higher elevation areas followed by closed needleleafed forest and closed to open broad leafed evergreen forests. Spatial analysis of trend break timing showed that for majority of areas experiencing
Wu, Jing; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Luo; Chu, Guo-qiang; Liu, Jia-qi
2016-01-01
The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2-16.6 ka BP and 12.8-11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3-18.0 ka BP) and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jing Wu
Full Text Available The Great Khingan Mountain range, Northeast China, is located on the northern limit of modern East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM and thus highly sensitive to the extension of the EASM from glacial to interglacial modes. Here, we present a high-resolution pollen record covering the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene from a closed crater Lake Moon to reconstruct vegetation history during the glacial-interglacial transition and thus register the evolution of the EASM during the last deglaciation. The vegetation history has gone through distinct changes from subalpine meadow in the last glacial maximum to dry steppe dominated by Artemisia from 20.3 to 17.4 ka BP, subalpine meadow dominated by Cyperaceae and Artemisia between 17.4 and 14.4 ka BP, and forest steppe dominated by Betula and Artemisia after 14.4 ka BP. The pollen-based temperature index demonstrates a gradual warming trend started at around 20.3 ka BP with interruptions of several brief events. Two cold conditions occurred around at 17.2-16.6 ka BP and 12.8-11.8 ka BP, temporally correlating to the Henrich 1 and the Younger Dryas events respectively, 1and abrupt warming events occurred around at 14.4 ka BP and 11.8 ka BP, probably relevant to the beginning of the Bølling-Allerød stages and the Holocene. The pollen-based moisture proxy shows distinct drought condition during the last glacial maximum (20.3-18.0 ka BP and the Younger Dryas. The climate history based on pollen record of Lake Moon suggests that the regional temperature variability was coherent with the classical climate in the North Atlantic, implying the dominance of the high latitude processes on the EASM evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM to early Holocene. The local humidity variability was influenced by the EASM limitedly before the Bølling-Allerød warming, which is mainly controlled by the summer rainfall due to the EASM front covering the Northeast China after that.
Miocene vegetation shift and climate change: Evidence from the Siwalik of Nepal
Srivastava, Gaurav; Paudayal, Khum N.; Utescher, Torsten; Mehrotra, R. C.
2018-02-01
We reconstruct climate and vegetation applying the Coexistence Approach (CA) methodology on two palaeofloras recovered from the Lower (middle Miocene; 13-11 Ma) and Middle Siwalik (late Miocene; 9.5-6.8 Ma) sediments of Surai Khola section, Nepal. The reconstructed mean annual temperature (MAT) and cold month mean temperature (CMT) show an increasing trend, while warm month mean temperature (WMT) remains nearly the same during the period. The reconstructed precipitation data indicates that the summer monsoon precipitation was nearly the same during the middle and late Miocene, while the winter season precipitation significantly decreased in the late Miocene. The overall precipitation infers increased rainfall seasonality during the late Miocene. The vegetation during the middle Miocene was dominated by wet evergreen taxa, whereas deciduous ones increased significantly during the late Miocene. The reconstructed climate data indicates that high temperature and significantly low precipitation during the winter season (dry season) in the late Miocene might have enhanced forest fire which favoured the expansion of C4 plants over C3 plants during the period. This idea gets further support not only from a recent forest fire in northern India that was caused by the weakening of winter precipitation, but also from the burnt wood recovered from the late Miocene Siwalik sediments of northern India.
Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.
2012-12-01
Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these
Zhao, Anzhou; Zhang, Anbing; Liu, Xianfeng; Cao, Sen
2018-04-01
Extreme drought, precipitation, and other extreme climatic events often have impacts on vegetation. Based on meteorological data from 52 stations in the Loess Plateau (LP) and a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the third-generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g) dataset, this study investigated the relationship between vegetation change and climatic extremes from 1982 to 2013. Our results showed that the vegetation coverage increased significantly, with a linear rate of 0.025/10a ( P NDVI revealed an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast, with about 61.79% of the LP exhibiting a significant increasing trend ( P NDVI at the yearly time scale ( P NDVI during the spring and autumn ( P NDVI and RX1day, TMAXmean, TXn, and TXx was insignificant in summer. Vegetation exhibited a significant negative relationship with precipitation extremes in winter ( P NDVI in Yan'an and Yulin during 1998-2013, r = 0.859 and 0.85, n = 16, P < 0.001.
Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.
2014-12-01
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.
Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change
Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek
2010-01-01
Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2003-01-01
either significantly warmer or cooler than the present. The next stage in the hierarchical strategy was to use a GCM and biosphere model, to simulate in more detail these extreme time periods. This deliverable starts with a description of the GCM and biosphere models used, and continues with an assessment of the models' performance in simulating the present day climate. It then gives a summary of the boundary conditions that constrain the model for the future climate simulations, as indicated by the LLN-2D model, and describes how these boundary conditions are implemented in the models. The majority of the deliverable is a description of the GCM results for the future climate simulations, and the resulting vegetation distributions. This is followed by a section focusing on the areas of specific interest. Finally, there is a critical discussion, which includes a comparison of some of the results with previous work, and an assessment of the uncertainty in the model results. There are many figures in this deliverable, all of which are included at the back. However, not all of the potentially interesting data from the models is discussed or presented. Therefore, data from all the simulations are available on the business collaborator at http://cobweb.businesscollaborator.com/bc/bc.cgi
Vegetation dynamics of the Guatemalan lowlands from MIS7 to MIS5: Evidence from Lake Petén-Itzá
Cruz-Silva, E.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Bush, M. B.
2013-05-01
Reconstructing vegetation patterns of past warm climatic stages is critical for understanding modern processes that affect diversity and climate. Tropical lowlands are of special interest because of the high biodiversity they foster and the risks they face under a scenario of rapid climate change. With a basal age of more that 191,000 years, core PI-1 from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemalan lowlands, offer an exceptional opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the vegetation of the area during climatic stages that might be analogous to today. Pollen analysis of the lower part of this sedimentary record shows a sequence of five different climatic stages of alternating warm and cold conditions. According to our interpretation, tropical forests extended in the area during MIS7 and MIS5, with the former characterized by drier conditions than the latter. Apparently forest dynamics closely followed global climatic changes that were recorded in the Antarctic and the Marine Stack records. Our results confirm that vegetation of the Peninsula, although highly resilient, has been very sensitive to global climatic changes.
Decline of woody vegetation in a saline landscape in the Groundnut Basin, Senegal
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sambou, Antoine; Theilade, Ida; Fensholt, Rasmus
2016-01-01
Several studies have documented that vegetation in the Sahel is highly dynamic and is affected by the prevailing climatic conditions, as well as by human use of the areas. However, little is known about vegetation dynamics in the large saline areas bordering the rivers of West Africa. Combining s...
Zhang, Zengxin; Chang, Juan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Zhou, Yang; Wu, Yanhong; Chen, Xi; Jiang, Shanshan; Duan, Zheng
2018-09-01
Lakes and vegetation are important factors of the Earth's hydrological cycle and can be called an "indicator" of climate change. In this study, long-term changes of lakes' area and vegetation coverage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and their relations to the climate change were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall method during the past 30years. Results showed that: 1) the lakes' area of the QTP increased significantly during the past 30years as a whole, and the increasing rates have been dramatically sped up since the year of 2000. Among them, the area of Ayakekumu Lake has the fastest growing rate of 51.35%, which increased from 618km 2 in the 1980s to 983km 2 in the 2010s; 2) overall, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased in the QTP during the past 30years. Above 79% of the area in the QTP showed increasing trend of NDVI before the year of 2000; 3) the air temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly, and the pan evaporation decreased significantly during the past 30years. The lake area and vegetation coverage changes might be related to the climate change. The shifts in the temporal climate trend occurred around the year 2000 had led the lake area and vegetation coverage increasing. This study is of importance in further understanding the environmental changes under global warming over the QTP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lu Hao
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Accurate detection and quantification of vegetation dynamics and drivers of observed climatic and anthropogenic change in space and time is fundamental for our understanding of the atmosphere–biosphere interactions at local and global scales. This case study examined the coupled spatial patterns of vegetation dynamics and climatic variabilities during the past three decades in the Upper Heihe River Basin (UHRB, a complex multiple use watershed in arid northwestern China. We apply empirical orthogonal function (EOF and singular value decomposition (SVD analysis to isolate and identify the spatial patterns of satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI and their close relationship with the variability of an aridity index (AI = Precipitation/Potential Evapotranspiration. Results show that UHRB has become increasingly warm and wet during the past three decades. In general, the rise of air temperature and precipitation had a positive impact on mean LAI at the annual scale. At the monthly scale, LAI variations had a lagged response to climate. Two major coupled spatial change patterns explained 29% and 41% of the LAI dynamics during 1983–2000 and 2001–2010, respectively. The strongest connections between climate and LAI were found in the southwest part of the basin prior to 2000, but they shifted towards the north central area afterwards, suggesting that the sensitivity of LAI to climate varied over time, and that human disturbances might play an important role in altering LAI patterns. At the basin level, the positive effects of regional climate warming and precipitation increase as well as local ecological restoration efforts overwhelmed the negative effects of overgrazing. The study results offer insights about the coupled effects of climatic variability and grazing on ecosystem structure and functions at a watershed scale. Findings from this study are useful for land managers and policy makers to make better decisions in response to climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Agouz, S.A.; Kabeel, A.E.
2014-01-01
Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ω in , air and T Reg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The T sup,air , ω sup,air , COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates
Ager, T.A.
2003-01-01
Pollen analysis of a sediment core from Zagoskin Lake on St. Michael Island, northeast Bering Sea, provides a history of vegetation and climate for the central Bering land bridge and adjacent western Alaska for the past ???30,000 14C yr B.P. During the late middle Wisconsin interstadial (???30,000-26,000 14C yr B.P.) vegetation was dominated by graminoid-herb tundra with willows (Salix) and minor dwarf birch (Betula nana) and Ericales. During the late Wisconsin glacial interval (26,000-15,000 14C yr B.P.) vegetation was graminoid-herb tundra with willows, but with fewer dwarf birch and Ericales, and more herb types associated with dry habitats and disturbed soils. Grasses (Poaceae) dominated during the peak of this glacial interval. Graminoid-herb tundra suggests that central Beringia had a cold, arid climate from ???30,000 to 15,000 14C yr B.P. Between 15,000 and 13,000 14C yr B.P., birch shrub-Ericales-sedge-moss tundra began to spread rapidly across the land bridge and Alaska. This major vegetation change suggests moister, warmer summer climates and deeper winter snows. A brief invasion of Populus (poplar, aspen) occurred ca. 11,000-9500 14C yr B.P., overlapping with the Younger Dryas interval of dry, cooler(?) climate. During the latest Wisconsin to middle Holocene the Bering land bridge was flooded by rising seas. Alder shrubs (Alnus crispa) colonized the St. Michael Island area ca. 8000 14C yr B.P. Boreal forests dominated by spruce (Picea) spread from interior Alaska into the eastern Norton Sound area in middle Holocene time, but have not spread as far west as St. Michael Island. ?? 2003 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Motew, M.; Kucharik, C. J.
2011-12-01
While much attention is focused on future impacts of climate change on ecosystems, much can be learned about the previous interactions of ecosystems with recent climate change. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation distributions (i.e. grasses, trees, and shrubs) and carbon and water cycling across the Upper Midwest USA from 1948-2007 using the Agro-IBIS dynamic vegetation model. We drove the model using a historical, gridded daily climate data set (temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at a spatial resolution of 5 min x 5 min. While trends in climate variables exhibited heterogeneous spatial patterns over the study period, the overall impact of climate change on vegetation productivity was positive. We observed total increases in net primary productivity (NPP) ranging from 20-150 g C m-2, based on linear regression analysis. We determined that increased summer relative humidity, increased annual precipitation and decreased mean maximum summer temperatures were key variables contributing to these positive trends, likely through a reduction in soil moisture stress (e.g., increased available water) and heat stress. Model simulations also illustrated an increase in annual drainage throughout the region of 20-140 mm yr-1, driven by substantial increases in annual precipitation. Evapotranspiration had a highly variable spatial trend over the 60-year period, with total change over the study period ranging between -100 and +100 mm yr-1. We also analyzed potential changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions at the biome level, but hypothesize that the model may be unable to adequately capture competitive interactions among PFTs as well as the dynamics between upper and lower canopies consisting of trees, grasses and shrubs. An analysis of the bioclimatic envelopes for PFTs common to the region revealed no significant change to the boreal conifer tree climatic domain over the study
Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning; Zhao, Yong; Mao, Weiyi; Xu, Xinbing; Liu, Yang; Yang, Qing
2018-02-01
Observed data showed the climatic transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang during the past 30 years and will probably affect vegetation dynamics. Here, we analyze the interannual change of vegetation index based on the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with temperature and precipitation extreme over the Xinjiang, using the 8-km NDVI third-generation (NDVI3g) from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) from 1982 to 2010. Few previous studies analyzed the link between climate extremes and vegetation response. From the satellite-based results, annual NDVI significantly increased in the first two decades (1981-1998) and then decreased after 1998. We show that the NDVI decrease over the past decade may conjointly be triggered by the increases of temperature and precipitation extremes. The correlation analyses demonstrated that the trends of NDVI was close to the trend of extreme precipitation; that is, consecutive dry days (CDD) and torrential rainfall days (R24) positively correlated with NDVI during 1998-2010. For the temperature extreme, while the decreases of NDVI correlate positively with warmer mean minimum temperature ( Tnav), it correlates negatively with the number of warmest night days ( Rwn). The results suggest that the climatic extremes have possible negative effects on the ecosystem.
Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C
2015-08-01
• Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.
Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.
2015-09-01
Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the Late Holocene and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of climatic instability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events depicted in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of evergreen taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. The Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activities and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.
Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.
2015-12-01
Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean paleoenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of high-frequency climate variability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events observed in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of sclerophyllous taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. Classical Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activity and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while the cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.
Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
Bartlein, P.J.; Edwards, M.E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Shafer, Sarah; Anderson, P.M.; Brubaker, L. B; Lozhkin, A. V
2015-01-01
Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control, which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal
Terrestrial Water Storage and Vegetation Resilience to Drought
Meyer, V.; Reager, J. T., II; Konings, A. G.
2017-12-01
The expected increased occurrences of hydrologic extreme events such as droughts in the coming decades motivates studies to better understand and predict the response of vegetation to such extreme conditions. Previous studies have addressed vegetation resilience to drought, defined as its ability to recover from a perturbation (Hirota et al., 2011; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2012), but appear to only focus on precipitation and a couple of vegetation indices, hence lacking a key element: terrestrial water storage (TWS). In this study, we combine and compare multiple remotely-sensed hydro-ecological datasets providing information on climatic and hydrological conditions (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) and indices characterizing the state of the vegetation (vegetation water content using Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active and Passive), Gross Primary Production (GPP) from FluxCom and Specific Fluorescence Intensity (SFI, from GOSat)) to assess the ability of vegetation to face and recover from droughts across the globe. Our results suggest that GRACE hydrological data bridge the knowledge gap between precipitation deficit and vegetation response. All products are aggregated at a 0.5º spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution to match the GRACE Mascon product. Despite these coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, we find that the relationship between existing remotely-sensed eco-hydrologic data varies spatially, both in terms of strength of relationship and time lag, showing the response time of vegetation characteristics to hydrological changes and highlighting the role of water storage. A special attention is given to the Amazon river basin, where two well documented droughts occurred in 2005 and 2010, and where a more recent drought occurred in 2015/2016. References : Hirota, Marina, et al. "Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions." Science
A 13,500 Year Record of Holocene Climate, Fire and Vegetation from Swan Lake, Idaho, USA
Wahl, D.; Anderson, L.; Miller, D. M.; Rosario, J. J.; Starratt, S.; McGeehin, J. P.; Bright, J. E.
2015-12-01
Modern climate dynamics in the western US are largely determined by a combination of two factors: 1) the strength and position of midlatitude pressure systems, which, in turn, are responsible for the generation and trajectory of winter storms, and 2) the strength of the North America Monsoon (NAM) which brings summer precipitation northward in response to northern hemisphere warming. Paleoclimate records from the Great Basin of the western US suggest some coherence in the timing of major climatic shifts during the Holocene. However, knowledge of the timing and magnitude of these changes at local scales, which can help explain the relative contribution of midlatitude winter storms vs. NAM, is lacking in many places. Here we present new data that constrain the timing and magnitude of late glacial and Holocene climate variability in the northeastern Great Basin, provide insight into past spatial variability of precipitation patterns in the western US, and improve our understanding of regional scale influences on Great Basin climate. In 2011, a 7.65 m sediment core was raised from Swan Lake, a small wetland located in southeastern Idaho that was formed in the spillway channel created by the catastrophic flooding of Lake Bonneville ~18 ka BP. Pollen, charcoal, clumped isotope, diatom, ostracod, and sedimentological data are used to reconstruct vegetation, fire history, and lake level/groundwater flux over the last 13,500 years. Age control is provided by 19 AMS radiocarbon determinations, which are reported as thousands of calibrated years before present (ka BP). This effort builds on earlier work by Bright (1966) who reported on pollen, macrofossils, and sediment type from Swan Lake. Our data suggest cool and wet conditions prevailed until around 12.3 ka BP, after which a drying trend begins. The early Holocene was marked by a warmer, drier climate, which persisted until around 6.2 ka BP. Moister conditions after 6.2 ka BP likely resulted from a combination of enhanced
VEGETATION RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU AT BASINAL SCALE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. Liu
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Global climate change has significantly affected vegetation variation in the third-polar region of the world – the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As one of the most important indicators of vegetation variation (growth, coverage and tempo-spatial change, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI is widely employed to study the response of vegetation to climate change. However, a long-term series analysis cannot be achieved because a single data source is constrained by time sequence. Therefore, a new framework was presented in this paper to extend the product series of monthly NDVI, taking as an example the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, one of the most important river basins in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. NDVI products were acquired from two public sources: Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR and Moderate-Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS. After having been extended using the new framework, the new time series of NDVI covers a 384 months period (1982–2013, 84 months longer than previous time series of NDVI product, greatly facilitating NDVI related scientific research. In the new framework, the Gauss Filtering Method was employed to filter out noise in the NDVI product. Next, the standard method was introduced to enhance the comparability of the two data sources, and a pixel-based regression method was used to construct NDVI-extending models with one pixel after another. The extended series of NDVI fit well with original AVHRR-NDVI. With the extended time-series, temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity of NDVI in the study area were studied. Principal influencing factors on NDVI were further determined. The monthly NDVI is highly correlated with air temperature and precipitation in terms of climatic change wherein the spatially averaged NDVI slightly increases in the summer and has increased in temperature and decreased in precipitation in the 32 years period. The
Castro, C. L.; Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.
2007-05-01
Previous work has established that the dominant modes of Pacific SSTs influence the summer climate of North America through large-scale forcing, and this effect is most pronounced during the early part of the season. It is hypothesized, then, that land surface influences become more dominant in the latter part of the season as remote teleconnection influences diminish. As a first step toward investigation of this hypothesis in a regional climate model (RCM) framework, the statistically signficant spatiotemporal patterns of variability and covariability in North American precipitation (specified by the standardized precipitation index, or SPI), soil moisture, and vegetation are determined for timescales from a month to six months. To specify these respective data we use: CPC gauge- derived precipitation (1950-2000), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model and NOAH Model NLDAS soil moisture and temperature, and the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS-NDVI). The principal statistical tool used is multiple taper frequency singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD), and this is supplemented by wavelet analysis for specific areas of interest. The significant interannual variability in all of these data occur at a timescale of about 7 to 9 years and appears to be the integrated effect of remote SST forcing from the Pacific. Considering the entire year, the spatial pattern for precipitation resembles the typical ENSO winter signature. If the summer season is considered seperately, the out of phase relationship between precipitation anomalies in the central U.S. and core monsoon region is apparent. The largest soil moisture anomalies occur in the central U.S., since precipitation in this region has a consistent relationship to Pacific SSTs for the entire year. This helps to explain the approximately 20 year periodicity in drought conditions there. Unlike soil moisture, the largest anomalies in vegetation occur in the
Permafrost warming and vegetation changes in continental Antarctica
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guglielmin, Mauro; Dalle Fratte, Michele; Cannone, Nicoletta
2014-01-01
Continental Antarctica represents the last pristine environment on Earth and is one of the most suitable contexts to analyze the relations between climate, active layer and vegetation. In 2000 we started long-term monitoring of the climate, permafrost, active layer and vegetation in Victoria Land, continental Antarctica. Our data confirm the stability of mean annual and summer air temperature, of snow cover, and an increasing trend of summer incoming short wave radiation. The active layer thickness is increasing at a rate of 0.3 cm y −1 . The active layer is characterized by large annual and spatial differences. The latter are due to scarce vegetation, a patchy and very thin organic layer and large spatial differences in snow accumulation. The active layer thickening, probably due to the increase of incoming short wave radiation, produced a general decrease of the ground water content due to the better drainage of the ground. The resultant drying may be responsible for the decline of mosses in xeric sites, while it provided better conditions for mosses in hydric sites, following the species-specific water requirements. An increase of lichen vegetation was observed where the climate drying occurred. This evidence emphasizes that the Antarctic continent is experiencing changes that are in total contrast to the changes reported from maritime Antarctica. (paper)
Schüler, Lisa; Hemp, Andreas; Zech, Wolfgang; Behling, Hermann
2012-04-01
The pollen, charcoal and sedimentological record from the Maundi crater, located at 2780 m elevation on the south-eastern slope of Mt Kilimanjaro, is one of the longest terrestrial records in equatorial East Africa, giving an interesting insight into the vegetation and climate dynamics back to the early last Glacial period. Our sediment record has a reliable chronology until 42 ka BP. An extrapolation of the age-depth model, as well as matching with other palaeo-records from tropical East Africa, suggest a total age of about 90 ka BP at the bottom of the record. During the last Glacial the distribution as well as the composition of the vegetation belts classified as colline savanna, submontane woodland, montane forest, ericaceous belt, and alpine vegetation changed. The early last Glacial is characterized by high amounts of Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen suggesting a climatically dry but stable phase. Based on the absence of pollen grains in samples deposited around 70 ka BP, we assume the occurrence of distinct drought periods. During the pre-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) a higher taxa diversity of the ericaceous and montane zone is recorded and suggests a spread of forest and shrub vegetation, thus indicating a more humid period. The taxa diversity increases steadily during the recorded time span. The decent of vegetation zones indicate dry and cold conditions during the LGM and seem to have been detrimental for many taxa, especially those of the forest vegetation; however, the early last Glacial seems to have been markedly drier than the LGM. The reappearance of most of the taxa (most importantly Alchemilla, Araliaceae, Dodonea, Hagenia, Ilex, Myrsine, Moraceae, Piperaceae) during the deglacial and Holocene period suggest a shift into humid conditions. An increase in ferns and the decrease in grasses during the Holocene also indicate increasing humidity. Fire played an important role in controlling the development and elevation of the ericaceous zone and the tree
Biodiversity of Terrestrial Vegetation during Past Warm Periods
Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Ridgwell, A.
2016-12-01
Previous modelling studies of vegetation have generally used a small number of plant functional types to understand how the terrestrial biosphere responds to climate changes. Whilst being useful for understanding first order climate feedbacks, this climate-envelope approach makes a lot of assumptions about past vegetation being very similar to modern. A trait-based method has the advantage for paleo modelling in that there are substantially less assumptions made. In a novel use of the trait-based dynamic vegetation model JeDi, forced with output from climate model HadCM3, we explore past biodiversity and vegetation carbon changes. We use JeDi to model an optimal 2000 combinations of fifteen different traits to enable assessment of the overall level of biodiversity as well as individual growth strategies. We assess the vegetation shifts and biodiversity changes in past greenhouse periods to better understand the impact on the terrestrial biosphere. This work provides original insights into the response of vegetation and terrestrial carbon to climate and hydrological changes in high carbon dioxide climates over time, including during the Late Permian and Cretaceous. We evaluate how the location of biodiversity hotspots and species richness in past greenhouse climates is different to the present day.
An analysis on vegetation pattern of ecotone in North China
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Jia, J.C.; Zhang, H.Y. [North China Electric Power Univ., Beijing (China). Energy and Environmental Research Center
2008-07-01
Vegetation pattern is influenced by several natural factors, including climatic elements, elevation factors and soil conditions. Since soil formation and soil types are influenced by water-temperature conditions, much can be learned about vegetation distribution patterns by studying the relationship between water-temperature conditions and vegetation distribution. This paper presented the results of a study whose purpose was to provide scientific evidence for exploiting natural resources, planting trees, and restoring grassland from cropland. A warmth index (WI ) and humidity index (HI) were used to examine the relation between the distribution of vegetation and the water-temperature condition in North China's ecotone, the transition area between two adjacent but different plant communities, including steppe, bush and forest ecosystems. A vegetation map of the study site was digitized and then converted into a vegetation grid map from which 17 different vegetation types were chosen as the study object. A monthly mean temperature grid map and precipitation grid map of the study site were made based on the method of spatial interpolation, by using 119 meteorological data for 50 years during the period from 1951 to 2000. The thermal distribution curves and humidity distribution curves of 17 vegetation types in North China, determined the whole range and optimum range of WI and HI of 17 vegetation types. The relative proportion of each vegetation type distributed in the optimum range of WI and HI were calculated. The vegetation pattern was analyzed according to the WI and HI standard, and was described by species and their relative amount. 10 refs., 5 tabs., 3 figs.
Dafflon, B.; Leger, E.; Robert, Y.; Ulrich, C.; Peterson, J. E.; Soom, F.; Biraud, S.; Tran, A. P.; Hubbard, S. S.
2017-12-01
Improving understanding of Arctic ecosystem functioning and parameterization of process-rich hydro-biogeochemical models require advances in quantifying ecosystem properties, from the bedrock to the top of the canopy. In Arctic regions having significant subsurface heterogeneity, understanding the link between soil physical properties (incl. fraction of soil constituents, bedrock depth, permafrost characteristics), thermal behavior, hydrological conditions and landscape properties is particularly challenging yet is critical for predicting the storage and flux of carbon in a changing climate. This study takes place in Seward Peninsula Watersheds near Nome AK and Council AK, which are characterized by an elevation gradient, shallow bedrock, and discontinuous permafrost. To characterize permafrost distribution where the top of permafrost cannot be easily identified with a tile probe (due to rocky soil and/or large thaw layer thickness), we developed a novel technique using vertically resolved thermistor probes to directly sense the temperature regime at multiple depths and locations. These measurements complement electrical imaging, seismic refraction and point-scale data for identification of the various thermal behavior and soil characteristics. Also, we evaluate linkages between the soil physical-thermal properties and the surface properties (hydrological conditions, geomorphic characteristics and vegetation distribution) using UAV-based aerial imaging. Data integration and analysis is supported by numerical approaches that simulate hydrological and thermal processes. Overall, this study enables the identification of watershed structure and the links between various subsurface and landscape properties in representative Arctic watersheds. Results show very distinct trends in vertically resolved soil temperature profiles and strong lateral variations over tens of meters that are linked to zones with various hydrological conditions, soil properties and vegetation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guoqing Li
2015-06-01
Full Text Available A risk assessment of vegetation zone responses to climate change was conducted using the classical Holdridge life zone model on the Loess Plateau of Northwest China. The results show that there are currently ten vegetation zones occurring on the Loess Plateau (1950–2000, including alvar desert, alpine wet tundra, alpine rain tundra, boreal moist forest, boreal wet forest, cool temperate desert, cool temperate desert scrub, cool temperate steppe, cool temperate moist forest, warm temperate desert scrub, warm temperate thorn steppe, and warm temperate dry forest. Seventy years later (2070S, the alvar desert, the alpine wet tundra and the cool temperate desert will disappear, while warm temperate desert scrub and warm temperate thorn steppe will emerge. The area proportion of warm temperate dry forest will expand from 12.2% to 22.8%–37.2%, while that of cool temperate moist forest will decrease from 18.5% to 6.9%–9.5%. The area proportion of cool temperate steppe will decrease from 51.8% to 34.5%–51.6%. Our results suggest that future climate change will be conducive to the growth and expansion of forest zones on the Loess Plateau, which can provide valuable reference information for regional vegetation restoration planning and adaptive strategies in this region.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Backes, G.; Lyngkjær, M. F.
2015-01-01
Climate change is likely to decrease crop yields worldwide. Developing climate resilient cultivars is one way to combat this production scarcity, however, little is known of crop response to future climate conditions and in particular the variability within crops.In Scandinavia, barley is widely...... cultivated, but yields have stagnated since the start of this century. In this study we cultivated 138 spring barley accessions in a climate phytotron under four treatments mimicking forecasted levels of temperature, carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and ozone ([O3]) at the end of the 21st century1...... yield, grain protein concentration, grain protein harvested, number of grains, number of ears, aboveground vegetative biomass and harvest index. In addition, stability of the production was calculated over the applied treatments for the assessed parameters.In the climate scenario of elevated temperature...
Janssen, Renee; Joordens, Josephine; Koutamanis, Dafne; Puspaningrum, Mika; de Vos, John; den Ouden, Natasja; van der Lubbe, Jeroen; Reijmer, John; Hampe, Oliver; Davies, Gareth; Vonhof, Hubert
2017-04-01
Climate and sea level fluctuations play a dominant role in the Quaternary biodiversity dynamics of Indonesia, with glacial-interglacial cycles affecting hydroclimate, vegetation, and animal migrations. We analyzed the carbon (δ13C), oxygen (δ18O), and strontium (87Sr/86Sr) isotopes of bovid, cervid, and suid teeth from several Pleistocene and Holocene sites on Java and Sumatra, in order to refine reconstructions of the paleohabitats of these faunas, gain more insight into their climatic background, and constrain their chronology. Our carbon isotope data indicate that individual sites are strongly dominated by the presence of either C3-browsers or C4-grazers. Herbivores from the Padang Highlands (Sumatra) and Hoekgrot (Java) cave faunas were mainly C3-browsers, while the studied herbivores from Homo erectus-bearing sites Trinil and Sangiran (Java) utilized an almost exclusive C4 diet. The C4 signal of Trinil herbivores confirms that the Hauptknochenschicht (Trinil HK) was deposited during glacial conditions, allowing us to hypothesize that it can be dated to MIS 16, 14 or 12. We propose that the dominant vegetation signals in Indonesian fossil sites, as revealed by δ13C data, reflect a glacial-interglacial contrast. The scarcity of δ13C values typically indicating mixed C3/C4 feeding may indicate that the transition between glacial and interglacial precipitation regimes was relatively abrupt. The observed positive correlation between δ13C and δ18O values can be attributed to the glacial-interglacial contrast between precipitation δ18O values, caused by differences in monsoon intensity. The 87Sr/86Sr data show that the dominant C4 signal observed in the Sangiran and Trinil herbivore faunas corresponds with roaming in a variety of landscape settings, corroborating our hypothesis that the δ13C values are representative of the overall C3/C4vegetation balance in these areas. These results provide a framework that will allow interpretation of future isotope data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huan Tang
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Vegetation phenology has been used in studies as an indicator of an ecosystem’s responses to climate change. Satellite remote sensing techniques can capture changes in vegetation greenness, which can be used to estimate vegetation phenology. In this study, a long-term vegetation phenology study of the Greater Khingan Mountain area in Northeastern China was performed by using the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS normalized difference vegetation index version 3 (NDVI3g dataset from the years 1982–2012. After reconstructing the NDVI time series, the start date of the growing season (SOS, the end date of the growing season (EOS and the length of the growing season (LOS were extracted using a dynamic threshold method. The response of the variation in phenology with climatic factors was also analyzed. The results showed that the phenology in the study area changed significantly in the three decades between 1982 and 2012, including a 12.1-day increase in the entire region’s average LOS, a 3.3-day advance in the SOS and an 8.8-day delay in the EOS. However, differences existed between the steppe, forest and agricultural regions, with the LOSs of the steppe region, forest region and agricultural region increasing by 4.40 days, 10.42 days and 1.71 days, respectively, and a later EOS seemed to more strongly affect the extension of the growing season. Additionally, temperature and precipitation were closely correlated with the phenology variations. This study provides a useful understanding of the recent change in phenology and its variability in this high-latitude study area, and this study also details the responses of several ecosystems to climate change.
Millennial climatic fluctuations are key to the structure of last glacial ecosystems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brian Huntley
Full Text Available Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM in "normal" and "hosing" experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The "hosing" experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the "normal" experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.
Millennial climatic fluctuations are key to the structure of last glacial ecosystems.
Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R M; Collingham, Yvonne C; Hickler, Thomas; Lister, Adrian M; Singarayer, Joy; Stuart, Anthony J; Sykes, Martin T; Valdes, Paul J
2013-01-01
Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in "normal" and "hosing" experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The "hosing" experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the "normal" experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph Shea
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Reviewed: Climate Change, Glacier Response, and Vegetation Dynamics in the Himalaya: Contributions Toward Future Earth Initiatives. Edited by R. B. Singh, Udo Schickhoff, and Suraj Mal. Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2016. xvi + 399 pp. Hardcover: US$ 179.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28975-5. E-book: US$ 139.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28977-9.
Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach
Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.
2014-01-01
A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.
Keribin, R. M.; Friend, A. D.; Purves, D.; Smith, M. J.
2013-12-01
Vegetation, from tropical rainforests to the tundra, is the basis of the world food chain but is also a key component of the Earth system, with biophysical and biogeochemical impacts on the global climate, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important integrative tool for understanding its responses to climate change. DGVMs up to now have treated only a small number of plant types representing broad divisions in vegetation worldwide (e.g. trees and grasses, broadleaf and needleleaf, deciduousness), but these categories ignore most of the variation that exists between plant species and between individuals within a species. Research in community ecology makes it clear however that these variations can affect large-scale ecosystem properties such as productivity and resilience to environmental changes. The current challenge is for DGVMs to account for fine-grained variations between plants and a few such models are being developed using newly-available plant trait databases such as the TRY database and insights from community ecology such as habitat filtering. Hybrid is an individual-based DGVM, first published in 1993, that models plant physiology in a mechanistic way. We modified Hybrid 8, the latest version of the model which uses surface physics taken from the GISS ModelE GCM, to include a mechanistic gap-model component with individual-based variation in tree wood density. This key plant trait is known to be strongly correlated with a trade-off between growth and mortality in the majority of forests worldwide, which allows for otherwise-similar individuals to have different life-history strategies. We investigate how the inclusion of continuous variation in wood density into the model affects the ecosystem's transient dynamics under climate change.
McDonnell, T C; Reinds, G J; Sullivan, T J; Clark, C M; Bonten, L T C; Mol-Dijkstra, J P; Wamelink, G W W; Dovciak, M
2018-03-01
Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Liu, Jun-Hui; Gao, Ji-Xi
2008-09-01
Based on the remote sensing images and the meteorological data in 1986 and 2000, and by using the model of extracting vegetation coverage, the spatiotemporal changes of vegetation coverage in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China in 1986-2000 were studied, with the effects of climate and land use change on the changes analyzed. The results showed that in this ecotone, the area with lower vegetation coverage was increasing, while that with higher vegetation coverage was in adverse. The regions with increasing vegetation coverage were mainly in the east of northeast section, the west of north section, and the west of northwest section of the ecotone, while the vegetation coverage in the other sections was obviously degraded. The vegetation coverage were positively correlated with precipitation and aridity index, but negatively correlated with temperature. The change direction and extent of the vegetation coverage varied with land use types.
A west-east vegetation transect through Africa south of the Tropic of Capricorn
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B. J. Coetzee
1975-11-01
Full Text Available Changes in predominant vegetation physiognomy, prominent species and physiography along the route following an I 800 km transect across southern Africa near the Tropic of Capricorn, are described. Eleven main discontinuities in the structure and Holistic composition of the vegetation along the transect are related to a climatic gradient across the Continent. Floristic variation within the main structural types is largely related to rainfall, severity of frost, soil conditions, exposure, slope and aspect. The main vegetation classes distinguished coincide largely with major differences in carrying capacity of the vegetation.
Garfin, G. M.; Eischeid, J. K.; Cole, K. L.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N. S.
2008-12-01
Recent and rapid forest mortality in western North America and associated changes in fire frequency and area burned are among the chief concerns of ecosystem managers. These examples of climate change surprises demonstrate nonlinear and threshold ecosystem responses to increased temperatures and severe drought. A consistent management request from climate change adaptation workshops held during the last four years in the southwest U.S. is for region-specific estimates of climate and vegetation change, in order to provide guidance for management of federal and state forest, range, and riparian preserves and land holdings. Partly in response to these concerns, and partly in the interest of improving knowledge of potential ecosystem changes and their relationships with observed changes and changes demonstrated in the paleoecological record, we developed a set of integrated climate and ecosystem analyses. We selected five of twenty-two GCMs from the PCMDI archive of IPCC AR4 model runs, based on their approximations of observed critical seasonality for vegetation in the Southern Colorado Plateau (domain: 35°- 38°N, 114°-107°W), centered on the Four Corners states. We used three key seasons in our analysis, winter (November-March), pre-monsoon (May-June), and monsoon (July- September). Projections of monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation from our five-model ensemble indicate steadily increasing temperatures in our region of interest during the twenty-first century. By 2050, the ensemble projects increases of 3.0°C during May and June, months critical for drought stress and tree mortality, and 4.5-5.0°C by 2090. Projected temperature changes for months during the heart of winter (December and January) are on the order of 2.5°C by 2050 and 3.0°C by 2090; such changes are likely to affect snow hydrology in middle to low elevations in the Southern Colorado Plateau. Summer temperature increases are on the order of 2.5°C (2050) and 4.0°C (2090). The
Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie
2013-04-01
Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been
El-Vilaly, Mohamed Abd Salam; Didan, Kamel; Marsh, Stuart E.; van Leeuwen, Willem J. D.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Munoz, Armando Barreto
2018-03-01
For more than a decade, the Four Corners Region has faced extensive and persistent drought conditions that have impacted vegetation communities and local water resources while exacerbating soil erosion. These persistent droughts threaten ecosystem services, agriculture, and livestock activities, and expose the hypersensitivity of this region to inter-annual climate variability and change. Much of the intermountainWestern United States has sparse climate and vegetation monitoring stations, making fine-scale drought assessments difficult. Remote sensing data offers the opportunity to assess the impacts of the recent droughts on vegetation productivity across these areas. Here, we propose a drought assessment approach that integrates climate and topographical data with remote sensing vegetation index time series. Multisensor Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data from 1989 to 2010 at 5.6 km were analyzed to characterize the vegetation productivity changes and responses to the ongoing drought. A multi-linear regression was applied to metrics of vegetation productivity derived from the NDVI time series to detect vegetation productivity, an ecosystem service proxy, and changes. The results show that around 60.13% of the study area is observing a general decline of greenness ( pchallenges to the region's already stressed ecosystems. Whereas the results provide additional insights into this isolated and vulnerable region, the drought assessment approach used in this study may be adapted for application in other regions where surface-based climate and vegetation monitoring record is spatially and temporally limited.
Analysis of Trends in Vegetation Avhrr-Ndvi Data Across Sokoto ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The current situation in vegetation productivity across Nigeria and indeed in Sokoto State is being affected by climatic change and other unfavourable environmental conditions. Time-series Remotely Sensed data within Geographic Information System (GIS) environment can be utilized to timely monitor the trajectory in ...
Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events
Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.
2010-05-01
Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region
The biophysical link between climate, water, and vegetation in bioenergy agro-ecosystems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bagley, Justin E.; Davis, Sarah C.; Georgescu, Matei; Hussain, Mir Zaman; Miller, Jesse; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; VanLoocke, Andy; Bernacchi, Carl J.
2014-01-01
Land use change for bioenergy feedstocks is likely to intensify as energy demand rises simultaneously with increased pressure to minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Initial assessments of the impact of adopting bioenergy crops as a significant energy source have largely focused on the potential for bioenergy agroecosystems to provide global-scale climate regulating ecosystem services via biogeochemical processes. Such as those processes associated with carbon uptake, conversion, and storage that have the potential to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). However, the expansion of bioenergy crops can also lead to direct biophysical impacts on climate through water regulating services. Perturbations of processes influencing terrestrial energy fluxes can result in impacts on climate and water across a spectrum of spatial and temporal scales. Here, we review the current state of knowledge about biophysical feedbacks between vegetation, water, and climate that would be affected by bioenergy-related land use change. The physical mechanisms involved in biophysical feedbacks are detailed, and interactions at leaf, field, regional, and global spatial scales are described. Locally, impacts on climate of biophysical changes associated with land use change for bioenergy crops can meet or exceed the biogeochemical changes in climate associated with rising GHG's, but these impacts have received far less attention. Realization of the importance of ecosystems in providing services that extend beyond biogeochemical GHG regulation and harvestable yields has led to significant debate regarding the viability of various feedstocks in many locations. The lack of data, and in some cases gaps in knowledge associated with biophysical and biochemical influences on land–atmosphere interactions, can lead to premature policy decisions. - Highlights: • The physical basis for biophysical impacts of expanding bioenergy agroecosystems on climate and water is described. • We
Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Climate over China
Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.
2014-12-01
Land cover changes can influence regional climate through modifying the surface energy balance and water fluxes, and can also affect climate at large scales via changes in atmospheric general circulation. With rapid population growth and economic development, China has experienced significant land cover changes, such as deforestation, grassland degradation, and farmland expansion. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to investigate the climate impacts of anthropogenic land cover changes over China. To isolate the climatic effects of land cover change, we focus on the CAM and CLM models, with prescribed climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice cover. Two experiments were performed, one with current vegetation and the other with potential vegetation. Current vegetation conditions were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, and potential vegetation over China was obtained from Ramankutty and Foley's global potential vegetation dataset. Impacts of land cover changes on surface air temperature and precipitation are assessed based on the difference of the two experiments. Results suggest that land cover changes have a cold-season cooling effect in a large region of China, but a warming effect in summer. These temperature changes can be reconciled with albedo forcing and evapotranspiration. Moreover, impacts on atmospheric circulation and the Asian Monsoon is also discussed.
A vital link: water and vegetation in the Anthropocene
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Gerten
2013-10-01
Full Text Available This paper argues that the interplay of water, carbon and vegetation dynamics fundamentally links some global trends in the current and conceivable future Anthropocene, such as cropland expansion, freshwater use, and climate change and its impacts. Based on a review of recent literature including geographically explicit simulation studies with the process-based LPJmL global biosphere model, it demonstrates that the connectivity of water and vegetation dynamics is vital for water security, food security and (terrestrial ecosystem dynamics alike. The water limitation of net primary production of both natural and agricultural plants – already pronounced in many regions – is shown to increase in many places under projected climate change, though this development is partially offset by water-saving direct CO2 effects. Natural vegetation can to some degree adapt dynamically to higher water limitation, but agricultural crops usually require some form of active management to overcome it – among them irrigation, soil conservation and eventually shifts of cropland to areas that are less water-limited due to more favourable climatic conditions. While crucial to secure food production for a growing world population, such human interventions in water–vegetation systems have, as also shown, repercussions on the water cycle. Indeed, land use changes are shown to be the second-most important influence on the terrestrial water balance in recent times. Furthermore, climate change (warming and precipitation changes will in many regions increase irrigation demand and decrease water availability, impeding rainfed and irrigated food production (if not CO2 effects counterbalance this impact – which is unlikely at least in poorly managed systems. Drawing from these exemplary investigations, some research perspectives on how to further improve our knowledge of human–water–vegetation interactions in the Anthropocene are outlined.
Scott A. Mensing; John L. Korfmacher; Thomas Minckley; Robert C. Musselman
2012-01-01
Future climate projections predict warming at high elevations that will impact treeline species, but complex topographic relief in mountains complicates ecologic response, and we have a limited number of long-term studies examining vegetation change related to climate. In this study, pollen and conifer stomata were analyzed from a 2.3 m sediment core extending to 15,...
Climate change and topography as drivers of Latin American biome dynamics
Flantua, S.G.A.
2017-01-01
This thesis focuses on Latin America. It uses paleobotanic data which are indicative of past vegetation and climate change on the basis of relationships between fossils left by the modern vegetation and modern environmental conditions. For the first time, palynological data is analyzed spatially in
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, Qin; Engstrom, Ryan; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Strelestskiy, Dmitry; Epstein, Howard E
2015-01-01
Northwestern Siberia has been undergoing a range of land cover and land use changes associated with climate change, animal husbandry and development of mineral resources, particularly oil and gas. The changes caused by climate and oil/gas development Southeast of the city of Nadym were investigated using multi-temporal and multi-spatial remotely sensed images. Comparison between high spatial resolution imagery acquired in 1968 and 2006 indicates that 8.9% of the study area experienced an increase in vegetation cover (e.g. establishment of new saplings, extent of vegetated cover) in response to climate warming while 10.8% of the area showed a decrease in vegetation cover due to oil and gas development and logging activities. Waterlogging along linear structures and vehicle tracks was found near the oil and gas development site, while in natural landscapes the drying of thermokarst lakes is evident due to warming caused permafrost degradation. A Landsat time series dataset was used to document the spatial and temporal dynamics of these ecosystems in response to climate change and disturbances. The impacts of land use on surface vegetation, radiative, and hydrological properties were evaluated using Landsat image-derived biophysical indices. The spatial and temporal analyses suggest that the direct impacts associated with infrastructure development were mostly within 100 m distance from the disturbance source. While these impacts are rather localized they persist for decades despite partial recovery of vegetation after the initial disturbance and can have significant implications for changes in permafrost dynamics and surface energy budgets at landscape and regional scales. (letter)
Spatial relationship between climatologies and changes in global vegetation activity.
de Jong, Rogier; Schaepman, Michael E; Furrer, Reinhard; de Bruin, Sytze; Verburg, Peter H
2013-06-01
Vegetation forms a main component of the terrestrial biosphere and plays a crucial role in land-cover and climate-related studies. Activity of vegetation systems is commonly quantified using remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI). Extensive reports on temporal trends over the past decades in time series of such indices can be found in literature. However, little remains known about the processes underlying these changes at large spatial scales. In this study, we aimed at quantifying the spatial relationship between changes in potential climatic growth constraints (i.e. temperature, precipitation and incident solar radiation) and changes in vegetation activity (1982-2008). We demonstrate an additive spatial model with 0.5° resolution, consisting of a regression component representing climate-associated effects and a spatially correlated field representing the combined influence of other factors, including land-use change. Little over 50% of the spatial variance could be attributed to changes in climatologies; conspicuously, many greening trends and browning hotspots in Argentina and Australia. The nonassociated model component may contain large-scale human interventions, feedback mechanisms or natural effects, which were not captured by the climatologies. Browning hotspots in this component were especially found in subequatorial Africa. On the scale of land-cover types, strongest relationships between climatologies and vegetation activity were found in forests, including indications for browning under warming conditions (analogous to the divergence issue discussed in dendroclimatology). © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stoehr, Michael [B.A.U.M. Consult GmbH, Muenchen (Germany). International and Energy Projects; Pickel, Peter [John Deere European Technology Innovation Center, Kaiserslautern (Germany)
2012-07-01
The use of biofuels in agricultural machinery is an option for complying with climate protection requirements that are presently discussed to be placed on manufacturers of mobile off-road machinery by the European Commission. A mathematical model has been developed that allows calculating greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) of biofuels for complex production paths in a straightforward, transparent manner and in pattern with the EU's Fuel Quality Directive (FQD). Therewith it has been shown that both rape seed and camelina sativa oil fuels can save more than 60 % GHGE. Key parameters have been identified and rules for a climate design of vegetable oil fuels have been formulated. (orig.)
Mougin, E.; Hiernaux, P.; Kergoat, L.; Grippa, M.; de Rosnay, P.; Timouk, F.; Le Dantec, V.; Demarez, V.; Lavenu, F.; Arjounin, M.; Lebel, T.; Soumaguel, N.; Ceschia, E.; Mougenot, B.; Baup, F.; Frappart, F.; Frison, P. L.; Gardelle, J.; Gruhier, C.; Jarlan, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Sanou, B.; Tracol, Y.; Guichard, F.; Trichon, V.; Diarra, L.; Soumaré, A.; Koité, M.; Dembélé, F.; Lloyd, C.; Hanan, N. P.; Damesin, C.; Delon, C.; Serça, D.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Seghieri, J.; Becerra, S.; Dia, H.; Gangneron, F.; Mazzega, P.
2009-08-01
SummaryThe Gourma site in Mali is one of the three instrumented meso-scale sites deployed in West-Africa as part of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Located both in the Sahelian zone sensu stricto, and in the Saharo-Sahelian transition zone, the Gourma meso-scale window is the northernmost site of the AMMA-CATCH observatory reached by the West African Monsoon. The experimental strategy includes deployment of a variety of instruments, from local to meso-scale, dedicated to monitoring and documentation of the major variables characterizing the climate forcing, and the spatio-temporal variability of surface processes and state variables such as vegetation mass, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture and surface fluxes. This paper describes the Gourma site, its associated instrumental network and the research activities that have been carried out since 1984. In the AMMA project, emphasis is put on the relations between climate, vegetation and surface fluxes. However, the Gourma site is also important for development and validation of satellite products, mainly due to the existence of large and relatively homogeneous surfaces. The social dimension of the water resource uses and governance is also briefly analyzed, relying on field enquiry and interviews. The climate of the Gourma region is semi-arid, daytime air temperatures are always high and annual rainfall amounts exhibit strong inter-annual and seasonal variations. Measurements sites organized along a north-south transect reveal sharp gradients in surface albedo, net radiation, vegetation production, and distribution of plant functional types. However, at any point along the gradient, surface energy budget, soil moisture and vegetation growth contrast between two main types of soil surfaces and hydrologic systems. On the one hand, sandy soils with high water infiltration rates and limited run-off support almost continuous herbaceous vegetation with scattered woody plants. On the other
Estimation of vegetation cover resilience from satellite time series
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T. Simoniello
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Resilience is a fundamental concept for understanding vegetation as a dynamic component of the climate system. It expresses the ability of ecosystems to tolerate disturbances and to recover their initial state. Recovery times are basic parameters of the vegetation's response to forcing and, therefore, are essential for describing realistic vegetation within dynamical models. Healthy vegetation tends to rapidly recover from shock and to persist in growth and expansion. On the contrary, climatic and anthropic stress can reduce resilience thus favouring persistent decrease in vegetation activity.
In order to characterize resilience, we analyzed the time series 1982–2003 of 8 km GIMMS AVHRR-NDVI maps of the Italian territory. Persistence probability of negative and positive trends was estimated according to the vegetation cover class, altitude, and climate. Generally, mean recovery times from negative trends were shorter than those estimated for positive trends, as expected for vegetation of healthy status. Some signatures of inefficient resilience were found in high-level mountainous areas and in the Mediterranean sub-tropical ones. This analysis was refined by aggregating pixels according to phenology. This multitemporal clustering synthesized information on vegetation cover, climate, and orography rather well. The consequent persistence estimations confirmed and detailed hints obtained from the previous analyses. Under the same climatic regime, different vegetation resilience levels were found. In particular, within the Mediterranean sub-tropical climate, clustering was able to identify features with different persistence levels in areas that are liable to different levels of anthropic pressure. Moreover, it was capable of enhancing reduced vegetation resilience also in the southern areas under Warm Temperate sub-continental climate. The general consistency of the obtained results showed that, with the help of suited analysis
Tourism and climate conditions in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2000-2010
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Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro
2014-06-01
Full Text Available The general behavior of the tourism sector in Puerto Rico, with its marked seasonality, hints at a close relationship between tourism activities and climate conditions. Even if weather condition is only one of many variables considered by travelling tourists, climate conditions weigh heavily in the majority of the decisions. The effect of climate variability on the environment could be manifested in warmer temperature, heat waves, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as severe storms and hurricanes, floods, and sea level rise. These conditions affect different sectors of society, among them public health and the economy. Therefore, our research has two main objectives: to establish a tourism climate index (TCI for Puerto Rico and to analyze if occupancy rates in hotels correspond to local weather conditions. Even though there are many other variables that could have positive or negative effects on tourism activities, results showed a significant association between occupancy rate in Puerto Rico and climate indexes. According to both TCI and the mean historical climate for tourism indexes, the most favorable months for tourism in Puerto Rico were February and March (winter, whereas the worst season was the end of August and the beginning of September (summer-fall. Although winter represents dry conditions and lower temperatures in San Juan, it also represents the highest occupancy rate during the years examined. In summer and fall, data showed high occupancy rates, yet climate conditions were not suitable; these months also correspond to the hurricane season. During this season, high relative occupancy rates responded to internal and local tourism patterns. It can therefore be assumed that until the climate-tourism relationship is well characterized, there is little hope of fully understanding the potential economic effects, detrimental or beneficial, of global climate change, not only on tourism in Puerto Rico, but on
Kousis, Ilias; Koutsodendris, Andreas; Peyron, Odile; Leicher, Niklas; Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Giaccio, Biagio; Knipping, Maria; Pross, Jörg
2018-06-01
To better understand climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, we here present a new, centennial-scale-resolution pollen record from Lake Ohrid (Balkan Peninsula) derived from sediment cores retrieved during an International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) campaign. Our palynological data, augmented by quantitative pollen-based climate reconstructions, provide insight into the vegetation dynamics and thus also climate variability in SE Europe during one of the best orbital analogues for the Holocene. Comparison of our palynological results with other proxy data from Lake Ohrid as well as with regional and global climate records shows that the vegetation in SE Europe responded sensitively both to long- and short-term climate change during MIS 11. The chronology of our palynological record is based on orbital tuning, and is further supported by the detection of a new tephra from the Vico volcano, central Italy, dated to 410 ± 2 ka. Our study indicates that MIS 11c (∼424-398 ka) was the warmest interval of MIS 11. The younger part of the interglacial (i.e., MIS 11b-11a; ∼398-367 ka) exhibits a gradual cooling trend passing over into MIS 10. It is characterized by considerable millennial-scale variability as inferred by six abrupt forest-contraction events. Interestingly, the first forest contraction occurred during full interglacial conditions of MIS 11c; this event lasted for ∼1.7 kyrs (406.2-404.5 ka) and was characterized by substantial reductions in winter temperature and annual precipitation. Most notably, it occurred ∼7 ka before the end of MIS 11c and ∼15 ka before the first strong ice-rafted debris event in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that millennial-scale climate variability during MIS 11 was established in Southern Europe already during MIS 11c, which is earlier than in the North Atlantic where it is registered only from MIS 11b onwards.
Climatic controls on diffuse groundwater recharge across Australia
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O. V. Barron
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Reviews of field studies of groundwater recharge have attempted to investigate how climate characteristics control recharge, but due to a lack of data have not been able to draw any strong conclusions beyond that rainfall is the major determinant. This study has used numerical modelling for a range of Köppen-Geiger climate types (tropical, arid and temperate to investigate the effect of climate variables on recharge for different soil and vegetation types. For the majority of climate types, the correlation between the modelled recharge and total annual rainfall is weaker than the correlation between recharge and the annual rainfall parameters reflecting rainfall intensity. Under similar soil and vegetation conditions for the same annual rainfall, annual recharge in regions with winter-dominated rainfall is greater than in regions with summer-dominated rainfall. The importance of climate parameters other than rainfall in recharge estimation is highest in the tropical climate type. Mean annual values of solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit show a greater importance in recharge estimation than mean annual values of the daily mean temperature. Climate parameters have the lowest relative importance in recharge estimation in the arid climate type (with cold winters and the temperate climate type. For 75% of all soil, vegetation and climate types investigated, recharge elasticity varies between 2 and 4 indicating a 20% to 40% change in recharge for a 10% change in annual rainfall. Understanding how climate controls recharge under the observed historical climate allows more informed choices of analogue sites if they are to be used for climate change impact assessments.
Trend shifts in satellite-derived vegetation growth in Central Eurasia, 1982-2013.
Xu, Hao-Jie; Wang, Xin-Ping; Yang, Tai-Bao
2017-02-01
Central Eurasian vegetation is critical for the regional ecological security and the global carbon cycle. However, climatic impacts on vegetation growth in Central Eurasia are uncertain. The reason for this uncertainty lies in the fact that the response of vegetation to climate change showed nonlinearity, seasonality and differences among plant functional types. Based on remotely sensed vegetation index and in-situ meteorological data for the years 1982-2013, in conjunction with the latest land cover type product, we analyzed how vegetation growth trend varied across different seasons and evaluated vegetation response to climate variables at regional, biome and pixel scales. We found a persistent increase in the growing season NDVI over Central Eurasia during 1982-1994, whereas this greening trend has stalled since the mid-1990s in response to increased water deficit. The stalled trend in the growing season NDVI was largely attributed by summer and autumn NDVI changes. Enhanced spring vegetation growth after 2002 was caused by rapid spring warming. The response of vegetation to climatic factors varied in different seasons. Precipitation was the main climate driver for the growing season and summer vegetation growth. Changes in temperature and precipitation during winter and spring controlled the spring vegetation growth. Autumn vegetation growth was mainly dependent on the vegetation growth in summer. We found diverse responses of different vegetation types to climate drivers in Central Eurasia. Forests were more responsive to temperature than to precipitation. Grassland and desert vegetation responded more strongly to precipitation than to temperature in summer but more strongly to temperature than to precipitation in spring. In addition, the growth of desert vegetation was more dependent on winter precipitation than that of grasslands. This study has important implications for improving the performance of terrestrial ecosystem models to predict future vegetation
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S. Joannin
2012-12-01
Full Text Available A high-resolution pollen record from Lago Trifoglietti in Calabria (southern Italy provides new insights into the paleoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes which characterise the Holocene period in the southern Italy. The chronology is based on 11 AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial organic material. The Holocene history of the vegetation cover shows the persistence of an important and relatively stable Fagus forest present over that entire period, offering a rare example of a beech woodstand able to withstand climate changes for more than 11 000 yr. Probably in relation with early Holocene dry climate conditions which affected southern Italy, the Trifoglietti pollen record supports a southward delay in thermophyllous forest expansion dated to ca. 13 500 cal BP at Monticchio, ca. 11 000 cal BP at Trifoglietti, and finally ca. 9800 cal BP in Sicily. Regarding the human impact history, the Trifoglietti pollen record shows only poor imprints of agricultural activities and anthopogenic indicators, apart from those indicating pastoralism activities beneath forest cover. The selective exploitation of Abies appears to have been the strongest human impact on the Trifoglietti surroundings. On the basis of (1 a specific ratio between hygrophilous and terrestrial taxa, and (2 the Modern Analogue Technique, the pollen data collected at Lago Trifoglietti led to the establishment of two palaeoclimatic records tracing changes in (1 lake depth and (2 annual precipitation. On a millennial scale, these records give evidence of increasing moisture from ca. 11 000 to ca. 9400 cal BP and maximum humidity from ca. 9400 to ca. 6200 cal BP, prior to a general trend towards the drier climate conditions that have prevailed up to the present. In addition, several successive centennial-scale oscillations appear to have punctuated the entire Holocene. The identification of a cold dry event around 11 300 cal BP, responsible for a marked decline in
Edvardsson, Johannes; Stančikaitė, Miglė; Miras, Yannick; Corona, Christophe; Gryguc, Gražyna; Gedminienė, Laura; Mažeika, Jonas; Stoffel, Markus
2018-04-01
To increase our understanding of long-term climate dynamics and its effects on different ecosystems, palaeoclimatic and long-term botanical reconstructions need to be improved, in particular in underutilized geographical regions. In this study, vegetation, (hydro)climate, and land-use changes were documented at two southeast Lithuanian peatland complexes - Čepkeliai and Rieznyčia - for the Late-Holocene period. The documentation was based on a combination of pollen, plant macrofossils, peat stratigraphic records, and subfossil trees. Our results cover the last two millennia and reveal the existence of moist conditions in Southern Lithuania between 300 and 500 CE and from 950 to 1850 CE. Conversely, changes towards warmer and/or dryer conditions have been recorded in 100, 600, and 750 CE, and since the 1850s. Significant differences with other Baltic proxies prevent deriving a complete and precise long-term reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variability at the regional scale. Yet, our results provide an important cornerstone for an improved understanding of regional climate change, i.e. in a region for which only (i) few detailed palaeobotanical studies exist and which has, in addition, been considered as (ii) an ecologically sensitive region at the interface between the temperate and boreal bioclimatic zones.
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S. Bathiany
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Early warning signals (EWS have become a popular statistical tool to infer stability properties of the climate system. In Part 1 of this two-part paper we have presented a diagnostic method to find the hotspot of a sudden transition as opposed to regions that experience an externally induced tipping as a mere response. Here, we apply our method to the atmosphere–vegetation model PlanetSimulator (PlaSim – VECODE using a regression model. For each of two vegetation collapses in PlaSim-VECODE, we identify a hotspot of one particular grid cell. We demonstrate with additional experiments that the detected hotspots are indeed a particularly sensitive region in the model and give a physical explanation for these results. The method can thus provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on the vulnerability of certain subsystems in climate models.
Guan, Qingyu; Yang, Liqin; Guan, Wenqian; Wang, Feifei; Liu, Zeyu; Xu, Chuanqi
2018-03-01
Vegetation cover is a commonly used indicator for evaluating terrestrial environmental conditions, and for revealing environmental evolution and transitions. Spatiotemporal variations in the vegetation cover of the Hexi Corridor and surrounding areas from 2000 to 2010 were investigated using MODIS NDVI data, and the causes of vegetation cover changes were analyzed, considering both climatic variability and human activities. The vegetation cover of the study area increased during 2000-2010. The greenness of the vegetation showed a significant increase from the northwest to the southeast, which was similar to the spatial distribution of the annual precipitation. Variations in vegetation have a close relationship with those in precipitation within the Qilian Mountains region, but the NDVI is negatively correlated with precipitation in oasis areas. Increasing temperatures led to drought, inhibiting vegetation growth in summer; however, increasing temperatures may have also advanced and prolonged the growing periods in spring and autumn. The NDVI showed a slight degradation in March and July, primarily in the Qilian Mountains, and especially the Wushao Mountains. In March, due to low temperatures, the metabolism rate of vegetation was too slow to enable strong plant growth in high elevations of the Qilian Mountains. In July, increasing temperatures enhanced the intensity of transpiration and decreasing precipitation reduced the moisture available to plants, producing a slight degradation of vegetation in the Qilian Mountains. In May and August, the NDVI showed a significant improvement, primarily in the artificial oases and the Qilian Mountains. Abundant precipitation provided the necessary water for plant growth, and suitable temperatures increased the efficiency of photosynthesis, resulting in a significant improvement of vegetation in the Qilian Mountains. The improvement of production technologies, especially in irrigation, has been beneficial to the growth of
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Gouveia, S.E.M.; Pessenda, L.C.R.; Boulet, R.; Aravena, R.; Scheel-Ybert, R.
1999-01-01
This paper presents an attempt to reconstruct vegetation and climate changes in the Jaguariuna and Botucatu regions (state of Sao Paulo, southeast of Brazil) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene, based on σ 13 C values of soil organic matter (SOM), 14 C dating and analysis of charcoal present in the soil profiles. Sampling sites were located under natural vegetation (cerradao), along the slopes of small hills. charcoal was found predominantly between 50 and 150 cm deep, indicating a period of greater frequency of fires in this area, between 3000 and 6000 years BP. The presence of charcoal on tops of the hills suggests that sedimentation could not be the major process responsible for burying the charcoal within the soil. Biological activity (termites, ants, earthworms) played an important role in this process. For Jaguariuna site, more enriched values of σ 13 C of SOM were observed from the late Pleistocene until mid Holocene, indicating drier climate when compared with present-day conditions. For Botucatu site, the σ 13 C profile suggests predominance of C 3 vegetation during the entire Holocene. (author)
Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas
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Karin Lundgren
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly electricity use to outdoor temperatures and humidity; modeled future predictions when facing additional heat due to climate change, related air conditioning with increased street level heat and estimated future air conditioning use in major urban areas. However, global and localized studies linking climate variables with air conditioning alone are lacking. More research and detailed data is needed looking at the effects of increasing air conditioning use, electricity consumption, climate change and interactions with the urban heat island effect. Climate change mitigation, for example using renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic electricity generation, to power air conditioning, and other sustainable methods to reduce heat exposure are needed to make future urban areas more climate resilient.
Bartholomeus, R.P.; Witte, J.P.M.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Aerts, R.
2008-01-01
Question: Is it possible to improve the general applicability and significance of empirical relationships between abiotic conditions and vegetation by harmonization of temporal data? Location: The Netherlands. Methods: Three datasets of vegetation, recorded after periods with different
Vescovi, E.; Ravazzi, C.; Arpenti, E.; Finsinger, W.; Pini, R.; Valsecchi, V.; Wick, L.; Ammann, B.; Tinner, W.
2007-01-01
We reconstruct the vegetational history of the southern side of the Alps at 18,000–10,000 cal yr BP using previous and new AMS-dated stratigraphic records of pollen, stomata, and macrofossils. To address potential effects of climatic change on vegetation, we compare our results with independent
Valolahti, Hanna; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Faubert, Patrick; Michelsen, Anders; Rinnan, Riikka
2015-09-01
Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensitive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, we aimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term (up to 13 treatment years). We also aimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic would affect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open-top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments on subarctic heath in Abisko, northern Sweden. After 11 and 13 treatment years, BVOCs were sampled from plant communities in the experimental plots using a push-pull enclosure technique and collection into adsorbent cartridges during the growing season and analyzed with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Plant species coverage in the plots was analyzed by the point intercept method. Warming by 2 °C caused a 2-fold increase in monoterpene and 5-fold increase in sesquiterpene emissions, averaged over all measurements. When the momentary effect of temperature was diminished by standardization of emissions to a fixed temperature, warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increase appeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treatment also caused significant increases in the emission rates of some BVOC groups, especially when combined with warming. The combined treatment had both the largest vegetation changes and the highest BVOC emissions. The increased emissions under litter addition were probably a result of a changed vegetation composition due to alleviated nutrient limitation and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarctic vegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor
Climate change and its potential impact on mechanical, hydraulic and chemical conditions
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Naslund, J.O.
2009-01-01
The strategy for managing climate related conditions in SKB ' s safety assessments are based on the notion that it is not possible to predict climate in a 100 000-year time perspective. Instead, the approach in the SR-Can safety assessment was to identify and analyse both moderate climate evolutions as well as extremes within which the climate in Scandinavia may vary. To this end, knowledge on general climate variations in Scandinavia was used to identify characteristic climate domains which in turn were used to build a number of selected climate scenarios. The relevant climate domains for the Forsmark and Laxemar sites in the 100 000-year time perspective are; 1) a temperate climate domain, 2) a peri-glacial climate domain, and 3) a glacial climate domain. Also submerged/non-submerged conditions at the sites are of importance. In the SR-Can safety assessment several climate scenarios were investigated, including a reference evolution based on a repetition of reconstructed conditions for last glacial cycle (the Weichselian glaciation and the Holocene interglacial). For this reconstruction, extensive numerical simulations of ice sheets, isostatic changes, and permafrost were conducted. The resulting scenario showed site-specific timing and duration of the three climate domains and submerged periods for the full glacial cycle. This scenario is not a prediction of a future climate evolution. Instead it is one example of a future evolution that in a realistic and consistent way covers all relevant climate related changes that can be expected in a 100 000-year time perspective. Subsequently, this scenario formed the basis for the construction of additional climate scenarios that were used to analyse the effects of more extreme climate evolutions than during the last glacial cycle. Examples of complementary scenarios are a warmer and wetter climate scenario caused by an increased greenhouse effect, and colder scenarios with deeper permafrost or thicker ice sheets than in
Rudaya, Natalia; Nazarova, Larisa; Novenko, Elena; Babich, Valery; Kalugin, Ivan; Daryin, Andrei
2015-04-01
We report the first high-resolution (with intervals ca. 20-50 years) late-Holocene (4200 yr BP) pollen record from Lake Teletskoye, Altai Mountains, obtained from the underwater Ridge of Sofia Lepneva in 2006 (core Tel 2006). The study presents (i) the results of palynological analysis of Tel 2006; (ii) the results of spectral analysis of natural cycles based on the periodical fluctuation of taiga-biome curve; and (iii) quantitative reconstructions of the late-Holocene regional vegetation, woody coverage and climate in northern part of the Altai Mountains in order to define place of Northeast Altai on the map of the late-Holocene Central Asian environmental history. Late Holocene vegetation of the northeastern part of Altai recorded in Tel 2006 core is characterized by spread of dark-coniferous forest with structure similar to modern. Dominant trees, Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and Siberian fir (Abies sibirica), are the most ecological sensitive taxa between Siberian conifers (Shumilova, 1962), that as a whole suggests mild and humid climatic conditions during last 4200 years. However, changes of pollen taxa percentages and results of numerical analysis reveal pronounced fluctuation of climate and vegetation. Relatively cool and dry stage occurred prior to ca. 3500 cal yr BP. Open vegetation was widespread in the region with maximum deforestation and minimal July temperatures between 3800-3500 cal yr BP. Steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaceae could grow on the open sites around Lake Teletskoye. Reconstructed woody coverage is very low and varies between 29-35%. After ca. 3500 cal yr BP the area of dark-coniferous mountain taiga has significantly enlarged with maximums of woody coverages and taiga biome scores between ca. 2470-1040 cal yr BP. In the period of ~3500-2500 cal yr BP the averages July temperatures increased more than 1 0C. Climate became warmer and wetter. During last millennium (after 1040 cal yr BP) average July
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Marko Vainu
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Numerous lakes in the world serve as sensitive indicators of climate change. Water levels for lakes Ahnejärv and Martiska, two vulnerable oligotrophic closed-basin lakes on sandy plains in northeastern Estonia, fell more than 3 m in 1946–1987 and rose up to 2 m by 2009. Earlier studies indicated that changes in rates of groundwater abstraction were primarily responsible for the changes, but scientifically sound explanations for water-level fluctuations were still lacking. Despite the inconsistent water-level dataset, we were able to assess the importance of changing climate, catchment vegetation and hydrogeology in water-level fluctuations in these lakes. Our results from water-balance simulations indicate that before the initiation of groundwater abstraction in 1972 a change in the vegetation composition on the catchments triggered the lake-level decrease. The water-level rise in 1990–2009 was caused, in addition to the reduction of groundwater abstraction rates, by increased precipitation and decreased evaporation. The results stress that climate, catchment vegetation and hydrogeology must all be considered while evaluating the causes of modern water-level changes in lakes.
Renssen, H.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Brovkin, V.; Driesschaert, E.; Wolk, F.
2005-01-01
The response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE. Only long-term changes in insolation and atmospheric CO
Georgian climate change under global warming conditions
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Mariam Elizbarashvili
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.
Remote sensing the vulnerability of vegetation in natural terrestrial ecosystems
Alistair M. S. Smith; Crystal A. Kolden; Wade T. Tinkham; Alan F. Talhelm; John D. Marshall; Andrew T. Hudak; Luigi Boschetti; Michael J. Falkowski; Jonathan A. Greenberg; John W. Anderson; Andrew Kliskey; Lilian Alessa; Robert F. Keefe; James R. Gosz
2014-01-01
Climate change is altering the species composition, structure, and function of vegetation in natural terrestrial ecosystems. These changes can also impact the essential ecosystem goods and services derived from these ecosystems. Following disturbances, remote-sensing datasets have been used to monitor the disturbance and describe antecedent conditions as a means of...
Climate, vegetation, distribution of taxa and diversity: A synthesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nazrul-Islam, A.K.M.
2005-07-01
An attempt has been made to investigate from a range of viewpoints the principle of the climatic control of plant distribution. The accumulated plant weight (w) is related to the incoming solar radiation (S) and is dependent on leaf area index, the incoming solar radiation and the efficiency of solar radiation to dry matter conversion. A review is presented and a model is discussed in order to stimulate interest and knowledge in this crucial and central theme of ecology. The aim is to develop a model based on eco-physiological principles to predict the major vegetational zones of the globe. Predictions were based on various plant responses, such as low temperature survival and evapo-transpiration. Taxonomic diversity declined in a poleward direction; for both the northern and southern hemispheres family diversity is greatest near the equator, declined markedly from latitude 30 deg. to 90 deg. Strong correlation between family diversity and absolute minimum temperature exists and a regression line suggests a decrease of 3.3 families per deg. C reductions in minimum temperature. Analysis of the islands ecology differing in areas at various altitudes of the present and past has been most productive in providing means of investigating dispersal and migration and vertical diversity. Experimental studies have been attempted in herbaceous vegetation at different latitudes (tundra and British Isles) by clearing the native species (Carex bigelowii, Eriphorum vaginatum) of the area and by introducing exotic species such as Lolium perenne. The cover of the exotic species subsequently declined and ultimately became extinct and was covered by the native species. In order to investigate the climatic control of the distribution of taxa it becomes necessary to split the life (life cycles) of a plant into a number of stages, each of which is a link in the chain of survival and each of which can dominate the control of distribution. When a stage of life cycle is broken then
Climate, vegetation, distribution of taxa and diversity: A synthesis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nazrul-Islam, A K.M. [Ecology Laboratory, Department of Botany, University of Dhaka, Dhaka (Bangladesh); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)
2005-07-15
An attempt has been made to investigate from a range of viewpoints the principle of the climatic control of plant distribution. The accumulated plant weight (w) is related to the incoming solar radiation (S) and is dependent on leaf area index, the incoming solar radiation and the efficiency of solar radiation to dry matter conversion. A review is presented and a model is discussed in order to stimulate interest and knowledge in this crucial and central theme of ecology. The aim is to develop a model based on eco-physiological principles to predict the major vegetational zones of the globe. Predictions were based on various plant responses, such as low temperature survival and evapo-transpiration. Taxonomic diversity declined in a poleward direction; for both the northern and southern hemispheres family diversity is greatest near the equator, declined markedly from latitude 30 deg. to 90 deg. Strong correlation between family diversity and absolute minimum temperature exists and a regression line suggests a decrease of 3.3 families per deg. C reductions in minimum temperature. Analysis of the islands ecology differing in areas at various altitudes of the present and past has been most productive in providing means of investigating dispersal and migration and vertical diversity. Experimental studies have been attempted in herbaceous vegetation at different latitudes (tundra and British Isles) by clearing the native species (Carex bigelowii, Eriphorum vaginatum) of the area and by introducing exotic species such as Lolium perenne. The cover of the exotic species subsequently declined and ultimately became extinct and was covered by the native species. In order to investigate the climatic control of the distribution of taxa it becomes necessary to split the life (life cycles) of a plant into a number of stages, each of which is a link in the chain of survival and each of which can dominate the control of distribution. When a stage of life cycle is broken then
Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.
2016-12-01
Water limited conditions strongly impacts soil and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions, which are commonly heterogeneous ecosystems, characterized by inter-annual rainfall variability, topography variability and contrasting plant functional types (PFTs) competing for water use. Historical human influences (e.g., deforestation, urbanization) further altered these ecosystems. Sardinia island is a representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. Two contrasting case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin (1700 km2). The first site is a typical grassland on an alluvial plan valley (soil depth > 2m) while the second is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation species (mainly wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous) that grow in a soil bounded from below by a rocky layer of basalt, partially fractured (soil depth 15 - 40 cm). In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation technique while soil moisture was continuously estimated with water content reflectometers, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) was estimated. The following objectives are addressed:1) pointing out the dynamics of land surface fluxes, soil moisture, CO2 and vegetation cover for two contrasting water-limited ecosystems; 2) assess the impact of the soil depth and type on the CO2 and water balance dynamics; 3) evaluate the impact of past and future climate change scenarios on the two contrasting ecosystems. For reaching the objectives an ecohydrologic model that couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM) has been used. Historical meteorological data are available from 1922 and hydro-meteorological scenarios are then generated using a weather generator. The VDM-LSM model predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated
CO2-vegetation feedbacks and other climate changes implicated in reducing base flow
Trancoso, Ralph; Larsen, Joshua R.; McVicar, Tim R.; Phinn, Stuart R.; McAlpine, Clive A.
2017-03-01
Changes in the hydrological cycle have a significant impact in water limited environments. Globally, some of these regions are experiencing declining precipitation yet are simultaneously becoming greener, partly due to vegetation feedbacks associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Reduced precipitation together with increasing rates of actual evapotranspiration diminishes streamflow, especially base flow, a critical freshwater dry-season resource. Here we assess recent changes in base flow in Australia from 1981-2013 and 1950-2013 and separate the contribution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and other factors on base flow trends. Our findings reveal that these other factors influencing the base flow trends are best explained by an increase in photosynthetic activity. These results provide the first robust observational evidence that increasing atmospheric CO2 and its associated vegetation feedbacks are reducing base flow in addition to other climatic impacts. These findings have broad implications for water resource management, especially in the world's water limited regions.
Vegetation Cover based on Eagleson's Ecohydrological Optimality in Northeast China Transect (NECT)
Cong, Z.; Mo, K.; Qinshu, L.; Zhang, L.
2016-12-01
Vegetation is considered as the indicator of climate, thus the study of vegetation growth and distribution is of great importance to cognize the ecosystem construction and functions. Vegetation cover is used as an important index to describe vegetation conditions. In Eagleson's ecohydrological optimality, the theoretical optimal vegetation cover M* can be estimated by solving water balance equations. In this study, the theory is applied in the Northeast China Transect (NECT), one of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programs (IGBP) terrestrial transects. The spatial distribution of actual vegetation cover M, which is derived from Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), shows that there is a significant gradient ranging from 1 in the east forests to 0 in the west desert. The result indicates that the theoretical M* fits the actual M well (for forest, M* = 0.822 while M = 0.826; for grassland, M* = 0.353 while M = 0.352; the correlation coefficient between M and M* is 0.81). The reasonable calculated proportion of water balance components further demonstrates the applicability of the ecohydrological optimality theory. M* increases with the increase of LAI, leaf angle, stem fraction and temperature, and decreases with the increase of precipitation amount. This method offers the possibility to analyze the impacts of climate change to vegetation cover quantitatively, thus providing advices for eco-restoration projects.
Projecting the Dependence of Sage-steppe Vegetation on Redistributed Snow in a Warming Climate.
Soderquist, B.; Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Strand, E. K.
2015-12-01
In mountainous regions, the redistribution of snow by wind can increase the effective precipitation available to vegetation. Moisture subsidies caused by drifting snow may be critical to plant productivity in semi-arid ecosystems. However, with increasing temperatures, the distribution of precipitation is becoming more uniform as rain replaces drifting snow. Understanding the ecohydrological interactions between sagebrush steppe vegetation communities and the heterogeneous distribution of soil moisture is essential for predicting and mitigating future losses in ecosystem diversity and productivity in regions characterized by snow dominated precipitation regimes. To address the dependence of vegetation productivity on redistributed snow, we simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen, sagebrush, and C3 grass plant functional types spanning a precipitation phase (rain:snow) gradient in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed and Critical Zone Observatory (RCEW-CZO). The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate NPP at three sites located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. To assess climate change impacts on future plant productivity, mid-century (2046-2065) NPP was simulated using the average temperature increase from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. At the driest site, mid-century projections of decreased snow cover and increased growing season evaporative demand resulted in limiting soil moisture up to 30 and 40 days earlier for aspen and sage respectively. While spring green up for aspen occurred an average of 13 days earlier under climate change scenarios, NPP remained negative up to 40 days longer during the growing season. These results indicate that the loss of the soil moisture subsidy stemming from prolonged redistributed snow water resources can directly influence ecosystem productivity in the rain:snow transition zone.
Responses of Vegetation Cover to Environmental Change in Large Cities of China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kai Jin
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Vegetation cover is crucial for the sustainability of urban ecosystems; however, this cover has been undergoing substantial changes in cities. Based on climate data, city statistical data, nighttime light data and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset, we investigate the spatiotemporal variations of climate factors, urban lands and vegetation cover in 71 large cities of China during 1998–2012, and explore their correlations. A regression model between growing-season NDVI (G-NDVI and urban land proportion (PU is built to quantify the impact of urbanization on vegetation cover change. The results indicate that the spatiotemporal variations of temperature, precipitation, PU and G-NDVI are greatly different among the 71 cities which experienced rapid urbanization. The spatial difference of G-NDVI is closely related to diverse climate conditions, while the inter-annual variations of G-NDVI are less sensitive to climate changes. In addition, there is a negative correlation between G-NDVI trend and PU change, indicating vegetation cover in cities have been negatively impacted by urbanization. For most of the inland cities, the urbanization impacts on vegetation cover in urban areas are more severe than in suburban areas. But the opposite occurs in 17 cities mainly located in the coastal areas which have been undergoing the most rapid urbanization. Overall, the impacts of urbanization on G-NDVI change are estimated to be −0.026 per decade in urban areas and −0.015 per decade in suburban areas during 1998–2012. The long-term developments of cities would persist and continue to impact on the environmental change and sustainability. We use a 15-year window here as a case study, which implies the millennia of human effects on the natural biotas and warns us to manage landscapes and preserve ecological environments properly.
Cegnar, T.
2010-09-01
Arts and climate science have more in common points than it appears at first glance. Artistic works can help us to directly or indirectly learn about climatic conditions and weather events in the past, but are also very efficient in raising awareness about climate change nowadays. Long scientific articles get very little response among general public, because most people don't want to read long articles. There is a need to communicate climate change issues more powerfully and more directly, with simple words, pictures, sculptures, installations. Artistic works can inspire people to take concrete action. A number of communication media can fit this purpose. Artists can speak to people on an emotional and intellectual level; they can help people to see things from another perspective and in new ways. Artists can motivate change; they have the freedom to weave facts, opinions, thoughts, emotion and colour all together. Paintings are witnesses of the past climatic conditions. We can learn from paintings, architectural constructions and sculptures about the vegetation, weather events, animals, and way of living. Mentioning only some few examples: old paintings in caves, also Flemish painters are often shown for their winter landscapes, and paintings are very useful to illustrate how fast glaciers are melting. At the end, we shall not forget that dilapidation of art masterpieces often depends on climatic conditions.
Effects of different irrigation regimes on vegetative growth, fruit yield ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ONOS
2010-09-06
Sep 6, 2010 ... This study was conducted during five growing seasons from 2004 to 2008 to investigate effects of different irrigation regimes on vegetative growth, fruit yield and quality of Salak apricot trees in semi- arid climatic conditions. ... is very important to know the critical stages of fruit development and the final ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huguet; Delas; Delmas; Demias; Flanzy; Benard; Puyaubert; Fioramonti; Marty; Barbier; Le Blaye; Michon
1961-01-01
Various vegetables were cultivated in 4 different types of soil, having received, or receiving periodically, strontium-90 or caesium-137 in fairly strong doses, in order to facilitate the measurement of the fraction of these radioelements taken up by the vegetables. In sandy soil, whole plants absorbed 2 to 3 per cent of Sr and 3 to 9 parts per thousand of Cs approximately; in clay soils, 1 to 6 parts per thousand of Sr and 0,2 to 2 parts per thousand of Cs; Cs, however, migrates relatively more than Sr in fruits or storage organs. The experiments confirmed that the quotient of the ratios 90 Sr/Ca in the vegetables and in the ploughed layer varies comparatively slightly; these would be a certain safety margin in assuming this ratio to be slightly above unity (to be confirmed after homogenising the ploughed layer). In view of the fact that in an arid climate it is necessary to apply several tens of litres of irrigation water (up to 50) in order to produce 1 kg of vegetables (fresh whole plants) and that furthermore, the radioelements of the residue from the crop harvest return to the soil, it can be expected that the limit of accumulation 1 kg of certain vegetables will contain as much of each radioelement as several tens of litres of irrigation water. (author) [fr
Soderquist, B.; Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Strand, E. K.
2016-12-01
earlier due to increased early season soil moisture use and higher summer vapor pressure deficits. These results indicate that vegetation response to decreased snowpack can result in significant drought stress although phenological shifts that better align leaf production and precipitation ameliorate this response in some years. Precipitation regimes in many semiarid ecosystems are becoming increasingly dominated by winter rainfall as a result of climate change. Across these regions, snowpack plays a vital role in the distribution and timing of soil moisture availability. Rising temperatures will result in a more uniform distribution of soil moisture, advanced spring phenology, and prolonged growing seasons. Productive and wide ranging tree species like aspen, Populus tremuloides, may experience increased vulnerability to drought and mortality resulting from both reduced snowpack and increased evaporative demand during the growing season. We simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen stands spanning the rain:snow transition zone in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (RCCZO) in southwest Idaho, USA. Within the RCCZO, the total amount of precipitation has remained unchanged over the past 50 years, however the percentage of the precipitation falling as snow has declined by approximately 4% per decade at mid-elevation sites. The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate aspen NPP at three stands located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. After adjusting precipitation inputs to account for the redistribution of snow, we assessed climate change impacts on future aspen productivity. Mid-century (2046-2065) aspen NPP was simulated using temperature projections from a multi-model average under high emission conditions using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set. While climate change simulations indicated over a 20% decrease in annual NPP for some years, NPP rates for other mid
The soil water balance in a mosaic of clumped vegetation
Pizzolla, Teresa; Manfreda, Salvatore; Caylor, Kelly; Gioia, Andrea; Iacobellis, Vito
2014-05-01
The spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture influences the plant growth and the distribution of terrestrial vegetation. This effect is more evident in arid and semiarid ecosystems where the interaction between individuals and the water limited conditions play a fundamental role, providing environmental conditions which drive a variety of non-linear ecohydrological response functions (such as transpiration, photosynthesis, leakage). In this context, modeling vegetation patterns at multiple spatial aggregation scales is important to understand how different vegetation structures can modify the soil water distribution and the exchanged fluxes between soil and atmosphere. In the present paper, the effect of different spatial vegetation patterns, under different climatic scenarios, is investigated in a patchy vegetation mosaic generated by a random process of individual tree canopies and their accompanying root system. Vegetation pattern are generated using the mathematical framework proposed by Caylor et al. (2006) characterized by a three dimensional stochastic vegetation structure, based on the density, dispersion, size distribution, and allometry of individuals within a landscape. A Poisson distribution is applied to generate different distribution of individuals paying particular attention on the role of clumping on water distribution dynamics. The soil water balance is evaluated using the analytical expression proposed by Laio et al. (2001) to explore the influence of climate and vegetation patterns on soil water balance steady-state components (such as the average rates of evaporation, the root water uptake and leakage) and on the stress-weighted plant water uptake. Results of numerical simulations show that clumping may be beneficial for water use efficiency at the landscape scale. References Caylor, Kelly K., P. D'Odorico and I. Rodriguez Iturbe: On the ecohydrology of structurally heterogeneous semiarid landscape. Water Resour. Res., 28, W07424, 2006
Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai
2016-02-12
Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.
Yang, Yuting; Guan, Huade; Shen, Miaogen; Liang, Wei; Jiang, Lei
2015-02-01
Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Microscale vegetation-soil feedback boosts hysteresis in a regional vegetation-climate system
Janssen, R.H.H.; Meinders, M.B.J.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.
2008-01-01
It has been hypothesized that a positive feedback between vegetation cover and monsoon circulation may lead to the existence of two alternative stable states in the Sahara region: a vegetated state with moderate precipitation and a desert state with low precipitation. This could explain the sudden
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. F. Muniz
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Vegetative aerial organs are considerably more exposed to environmental conditions and can reflect the specific adaptations of plants to their local environment. Aldama grandiflora species are known to be widely distributed in Brazil; therefore, individuals from different populations of this species are thought to be exposed to different abiotic and biotic conditions. Several anatomical studies conducted on Brazilian Aldama species have mainly focused on the qualitative anatomical characters or traits of these species, but not on their quantitative traits. In this study, we evaluated whether climate and soil conditions can change the morphometry among individuals of A. grandiflora collected from six sites in the Goiás State, Brazil, by assessing their anatomical characters. Further, soil sampling was performed, and climate data were collected from all the six sites. The analysis indicated few statistical differences among the populations evaluated, showing that A. grandiflora presented consistent leaf and stem anatomical characteristics. The small morpho-anatomical differences found among individuals of the different populations evaluated, reflected the soil conditions in which these populations were grown. Therefore, environmental factors have a significant influence on the morpho-anatomy of Aldama grandiflora.
Moulin, S.; Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Ruget, F.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Lecharpentier, P.; Ripoche, D.; Launay, M.; Brisson, N.
2012-04-01
In the coming years, water resources and vegetation production of Mediterranean areas will be drastically affected by climate changes as well as intense and rapid changes in the land use. The impact of climate and land-use changes on water balance and vegetation production can be analysed and predicted through land surface models, provided that the uncertainties associated to these models and to the data used to run them are evaluated. Vegetation phenology is generally poorly taken into account in land surface models and may be a substantial source of uncertainties for global change scenario studies. In this paper, we discuss the improvement obtained in Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) modelling by taking into account the phenology using a crop growth model, focusing on the water budget, over a Mediterranean crop site. The STICS model (Brisson et al, 1998) is used to simulate crop processes (growth and development, taking into account water and nitrogen exchanges between the environment and the crop). STICS describes the vegetation phenology very accurately and was validated for many types of crop and various pedoclimatic conditions. The SVAT model being analyzed is the a-gs version (Calvet et al., 1998) of the ISBA model (Noilhan et al, 1989), which simulates the photosynthesis and calculates the plant biomass and the Leaf Area Index (LAI) using a simple growth model. In STICS, the phenology is driven by the sum of daily air temperatures, which is quite realistic, while in ISBA, the phenology is driven by the plant carbon assimilation. Measurements (vegetation characteristics, soil properties, agricultural practises, energy and water balance) performed in the lower Rhone valley experimental area (Avignon, France) are used as well as long series of climatic data (past records and future simulations). In a first step, by running STICS and ISBA for maize and wheat crops with long series of climatic data, including future scenarios of climate (CLIMATOR
Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling
Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.
2016-04-01
This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support
Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Ostle, Nick; Whitaker, Jeanette
2013-04-01
Peatlands are important carbon (C) stores, with boreal and subarctic peatlands containing 15-30 % of the world soil carbon stock (Limpens et al., 2008). Research has demonstrated that greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in peatlands are influenced by vegetation, soil property and climatic variables, including plant functional type (PFT), water table height and temperature. In this paper we present data from Black Law Wind Farm, Scotland, where we examined the effect of a predicted wind turbine-induced microclimatic gradient and PFT on carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes. Moreover, we determined the role of vegetation, soil property and climatic variables as predictors of the variation in CO2 and CH4 emissions. We measured CO2 and CH4 at 48 plots within Black Law Wind Farm at monthly intervals from May 2011 to April 2012. Four sampling sites were located along a predicted wind turbine-induced microclimatic gradient. At each site four blocks were established, each with plots in areas dominated by mosses, sedges and shrubs. Plant biomass and PFT (vegetation factors); soil moisture, water table height, peat depth, C content, nitrogen (N) content and C:N (soil properties); and soil temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) (climatic variables) were measured. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) models based on the microclimatic gradient site, PFT and season when measurements were made explained 58 %, 44 % and 49 % of the variation in ecosystem respiration, photosynthesis and CH4, respectively. Site, PFT, season and their interactions were all significant for respiration and photosynthesis (with the exception of the PFT*site interaction) but for CH4 only the main effects were significant. Parsimonious ANOVA models using the biotic, soil property and climatic explanatory data explained 62 %, 55 % and 49 % of the variation in respiration, photosynthesis and CH4, respectively. Published studies (Baidya Roy and Traiteur 2010; Zhou et al., 2012) and preliminary
Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zeng, Zhenzhong [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Piao, Shilong [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Li, Laurent Z. X. [Sorbonne Univ. Paris (France); Zhou, Liming [State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Wang, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Li, Yue [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Lian, Xu [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Wood, Eric F. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Friedlingstein, Pierre [Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Estes, Lyndon D. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Clark Univ., Worcester, MA (United States); Myneni, Ranga B. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Peng, Shushi [Peking Univ., Beijing (China); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Seneviratne, Sonia I. [ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Wang, Yingping [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Aspendale, VIC (Australia)
2017-05-22
The surface air temperature response to vegetation changes has been studied for the extreme case of land-cover change; yet, it has never been quantified for the slow but persistent increase in leaf area index (LAI) observed over the past 30 years (Earth greening). We isolate the fingerprint of increasing LAI on surface air temperature using a coupled land–atmosphere global climate model prescribed with satellite LAI observations. Furthermore, we found that the global greening has slowed down the rise in global land-surface air temperature by 0.09 ± 0.02 °C since 1982. This net cooling effect is the sum of cooling from increased evapotranspiration (70%), changed atmospheric circulation (44%), decreased shortwave transmissivity (21%), and warming from increased longwave air emissivity (-29%) and decreased albedo (-6%). The global cooling originated from the regions where LAI has increased, including boreal Eurasia, Europe, India, northwest Amazonia, and the Sahel. Increasing LAI did not, but, significantly change surface air temperature in eastern North America and East Asia, where the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes mask local vegetation feedbacks. Overall, the sum of biophysical feedbacks related to the greening of the Earth mitigated 12% of global land-surface warming for the past 30 years.
Muff, Christine; Dragano, N; Jöckel, K-H; Moebus, S; Möhlenkamp, S; Erbel, R; Mann, K; Siegrist, J
2010-08-01
As smoking and unhealthy diet are more prevalent in lower socioeconomic groups, this study aims at exploring whether associations between smoking and fruit and vegetable consumption are confounded by socioeconomic conditions or if smoking is independently associated with consumption. Cross-sectional analyses of 4,814 middle-aged participants from the Heinz Nixdorf recall study, a population-based cohort study in Germany. Fruit and vegetable consumption was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. Education and income were used as indicators for socioeconomic groups. Logistic regression models were run to estimate odds ratios for consumption by smoking status. Smoking is associated with poor consumption of fruits and raw vegetables/salad in both genders, and with poor consumption of boiled vegetables and fruit/vegetable juice in men. Importantly, poor consumption is related to smoking independently of people's socioeconomic conditions. The findings imply that smokers in all socioeconomic groups are at higher risk for unhealthy intake of fruits and vegetables. Public health interventions targeted to smokers should include dietary instructions.
Christie, M.; Bernhardt, C. E.; Clear, J.; Corbett, D. R.; Horton, B.
2017-12-01
, moister conditions and disappear from regions as conditions become warmer or drier. We combine the various histories of vegetation change from pollen assemblages into a single source for researchers to use when attempting to understand geochronology and impacts of climate change along the Atlantic coast of the United States.
Beckley, Carl S; Shaban, Salisu; Palmer, Guy H; Hudak, Andrew T; Noh, Susan M; Futse, James E
2016-01-01
Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B. bigemina prevalence
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carl S Beckley
Full Text Available Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B
Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings
Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...
Wind energy under cold climate conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Maribo Pedersen, B.
1999-03-01
There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)
Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions
Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.
2015-04-01
Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rebecca Mary Bernadette Harris
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Changes to the frequency of fire due to management decisions and climate change have the potential to affect the flammability of vegetation, with long-term effects on the vegetation structure and composition. Frequent fire in some vegetation types can lead to transformational change beyond which the vegetation type is radically altered. Such feedbacks limit our ability to project fuel loads under future climatic conditions or to consider the ecological tradeoffs associated with management burns. We present a “pathway modelling” approach to consider multiple transitional pathways that may occur under different fire frequencies. The model combines spatial layers representing current and future fire danger, biomass, flammability, and sensitivity to fire to assess potential future fire activity. The layers are derived from a dynamically downscaled regional climate model, attributes from a regional vegetation map, and information about fuel characteristics. Fire frequency is demonstrated to be an important factor influencing flammability and availability to burn and therefore an important determinant of future fire activity. Regional shifts in vegetation type occur in response to frequent fire, as the rate of change differs across vegetation type. Fire-sensitive vegetation types move towards drier, more fire-adapted vegetation quickly, as they may be irreversibly impacted by even a single fire, and require very long recovery times. Understanding the interaction between climate change and fire is important to identify appropriate management regimes to sustain fire-sensitive communities and maintain the distribution of broad vegetation types across the landscape.
Mulmi, Prajula; Block, Steven A; Shively, Gerald E; Masters, William A
2016-12-01
Environmental conditions in early life are known to have impacts on later health outcomes, but causal mechanisms and potential remedies have been difficult to discern. This paper uses the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys of 2006 and 2011, combined with earlier NASA satellite observations of variation in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at each child's location and time of birth to identify the trimesters of gestation and periods of infancy when climate variation is linked to attained height later in life. We find significant differences by sex: males are most affected by conditions in their second trimester of gestation, and females in the first three months after birth. Each 100-point difference in NDVI at those times is associated with a difference in height-for-age z-score (HAZ) measured at age 12-59 months of 0.088 for boys and 0.054 for girls, an effect size similar to that of moving within the distribution of household wealth by close to one quintile for boys and one decile for girls. The entire seasonal change in NDVI from peak to trough is approximately 200-300 points during the 2000-2011 study period, implying a seasonal effect on HAZ similar to one to three quintiles of household wealth. This effect is observed only in households without toilets; in households with toilets, there is no seasonal fluctuation, implying protection against climatic conditions that facilitate disease transmission. We also use data from the Nepal Living Standards Surveys on district-level agricultural production and marketing, and find a climate effect on child growth only in districts where households' food consumption derives primarily from their own production. Robustness tests find no evidence of selection effects, and placebo regression results reveal no significant artefactual correlations. The timing and sex-specificity of climatic effects are consistent with previous studies, while the protective effects of household sanitation and food markets are
Vegetation anomalies caused by antecedent precipitation in most of the world
Papagiannopoulou, C.; Miralles, D. G.; Dorigo, W. A.; Verhoest, N. E. C.; Depoorter, M.; Waegeman, W.
2017-07-01
Quantifying environmental controls on vegetation is critical to predict the net effect of climate change on global ecosystems and the subsequent feedback on climate. Following a non-linear Granger causality framework based on a random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of multi-decadal satellite data records to uncover the main drivers of monthly vegetation variability at the global scale. Results indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation globally: about 61% of the vegetated surface was primarily water-limited during 1981-2010. This included semiarid climates but also transitional ecoregions. Intra-annually, temperature controls Northern Hemisphere deciduous forests during the growing season, while antecedent precipitation largely dominates vegetation dynamics during the senescence period. The uncovered dependency of global vegetation on water availability is substantially larger than previously reported. This is owed to the ability of the framework to (1) disentangle the co-linearities between radiation/temperature and precipitation, and (2) quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our results reveal a prolonged effect of precipitation anomalies in dry regions: due to the long memory of soil moisture and the cumulative, non-linear, response of vegetation, water-limited regions show sensitivity to the values of precipitation occurring three months earlier. Meanwhile, the impacts of temperature and radiation anomalies are more immediate and dissipate shortly, pointing to a higher resilience of vegetation to these anomalies. Despite being infrequent by definition, hydro-climatic extremes are responsible for up to 10% of the vegetation variability during the 1981-2010 period in certain areas, particularly in water-limited ecosystems. Our approach is a first step towards a quantitative comparison of the resistance and resilience signature of different ecosystems, and can be used to benchmark Earth
Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology
Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton
2009-01-01
Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.
Crump, S. E.; Sepúlveda, J.; Bunce, M.; Miller, G. H.
2017-12-01
Modern ecological studies are revealing that the "greening" of the Arctic, resulting from a poleward shift in woody vegetation ranges, is already underway. The increasing abundance of shrubs in tundra ecosystems plays an important role in the global climate system through multiple positive feedbacks, yet uncertainty in future predictions of terrestrial vegetation means that climate models are likely not capturing these feedbacks accurately. Recently developed molecular techniques for reconstructing past vegetation and climate allow for a closer look at the paleo-record in order to improve our understanding of tundra community responses to climate variability; our current research focus is to apply these tools to both Last Interglacial and Holocene warm times. Here we present initial results from a small lake on southern Baffin Island spanning the last 7.2 ka. We reconstruct climate with both bulk geochemical and biomarker proxies, primarily using biogenic silica and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) as temperature indicators. We assess shifts in plant community using multivariate analysis of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding data. This combination of approaches reveals that the vegetation community has responded sensitively to early Holocene warmth, Neoglacial cooling, and possibly modern anthropogenic warming. To our knowledge, this represents the first combination of a quantitative, biomarker-based climate reconstruction with a sedaDNA-based paleoecological reconstruction, and offers a glimpse at the potential of these molecular techniques used in tandem.
Effects of different irrigation regimes on vegetative growth, fruit yield ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This study was conducted during five growing seasons from 2004 to 2008 to investigate effects of different irrigation regimes on vegetative growth, fruit yield and quality of Salak apricot trees in semiarid climatic conditions. There were six irrigation treatments, five of which (S1, S2, S3, S4 and S5) were based on adjustment ...
Ecosystems past: prehistory of California vegetation
C.I. Millar; W.B. Woolfenden
2016-01-01
The history of California's vegetation, from origins in the Mesozoic through Quaternary is outlined. Climatic and geologic history and the processes driving changes in vegetation over time are also described.Â
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asma Foughali
2015-07-01
Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to
The impacts of the dust radiative effect on vegetation growth in the Sahel
Evans, S. M.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Ginoux, P. A.
2017-12-01
Many studies have been conducted on the effects of dust on rainfall in the Sahel, and generally show that African dust weakens the West African Monsoon, drying the region. This drying is often assumed to reduce vegetation cover for the region, providing a positive feedback with dust emission. There are, however, other competing effects of dust that are also important to plant growth, including a reduction in surface temperature, a reduction in downwelling solar radiation, and an increase in the diffuse fraction of that solar radiation. Using the NOAA/GFDL CM3 model coupled to the dynamic vegetation model LM3, we demonstrate that the combined effect of all these processes is to decrease the vegetation coverage and productivity of the Sahel and West Africa. We accomplish this by comparing experiments with radiatively active dust to experiments with radiatively invisible dust. We find that in modern conditions, the dust radiative effect reduces the net primary productivity of West Africa and the Sahel by up to 30% locally, and when summed over the region accounts for a difference of approximately 0.4 GtC per year. Experiments where the vegetation experiences preindustrial rather than modern CO2 levels show that without carbon fertilization, this loss of productivity would be approximately 10% stronger. In contrast, during preindustrial conditions the vegetation response is less than half as strong, despite the dust induced rainfall and temperature anomalies being similar. We interpret this as the vegetation being less susceptible to drought in a less evaporative climate. These changes in vegetation create the possibility of a dust-vegetation feedback loop whose strength varies with the mean state of the climate, and which may grow stronger in the future.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goetz, Scott J; Sun, Mindy; Zolkos, Scott; Hansen, Andy; Dubayah, Ralph
2014-01-01
Recent advances in remote sensing and ecological modeling warrant a timely and robust investigation of the ecological variables that underlie large-scale patterns of breeding bird species richness, particularly in the context of intensifying land use and climate change. Our objective was to address this need using an array of bioclimatic and remotely sensed data sets representing vegetation properties and structure, and other aspects of the physical environment. We first build models of bird species richness across breeding bird survey (BBS) routes, and then spatially predict richness across the coterminous US at moderately high spatial resolution (1 km). Predictor variables were derived from various sources and maps of species richness were generated for four groups (guilds) of birds with different breeding habitat affiliation (forest, grassland, open woodland, scrub/shrub), as well as all guilds combined. Predictions of forest bird distributions were strong (R 2 = 0.85), followed by grassland (0.76), scrub/shrub (0.63) and open woodland (0.60) species. Vegetation properties were generally the strongest determinants of species richness, whereas bioclimatic and lidar-derived vertical structure metrics were of variable importance and dependent upon the guild type. Environmental variables (climate and the physical environment) were also frequently selected predictors, but canopy structure variables were not as important as expected based on more local to regional scale studies. Relatively sparse sampling of canopy structure metrics from the satellite lidar sensor may have reduced their importance relative to other predictor variables across the study domain. We discuss these results in the context of the ecological drivers of species richness patterns, the spatial scale of bird diversity analyses, and the potential of next generation space-borne lidar systems relevant to vegetation and ecosystem studies. This study strengthens current understanding of bird species–climate–vegetation
DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS MANAGEMENT
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Novikova L.V.
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The scientific work is devoted to the analysis and development of the automated control system of the climatic conditions of the minites. The analysis of existing automated control systems is carried out, in particular attention is paid to the systems of climate control of greenhouses. The technical means of the control system are determined. As a platform, Arduino®Uno is selected.
Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luxmoore, R.J.; Baldocchi, D.D.
1994-01-01
Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Natacha Foucreau
Full Text Available As a consequence of global warming, it is important to characterise the potential changes occurring for some functional processes through the intra-specific study of key species. Changes in species distribution, particularly when key or engineer species are affected, should contribute to global changes in ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examined the potential consequences induced by global warming on ecosystem functioning in term of organic matter recycling. We compared consumption of leaf litter by some shredder populations (Gammarus pulex between five tree species inhabiting continental (i.e., the northern region of the Rhône River Valley and/or Mediterranean (i.e., the southern region of the Rhône River Valley conditions. To consider any potential adaptation of the gammarid population to vegetation in the same climate conditions, three populations of the key shredder Gammarus pulex from the northern region and three from the southern region of the Rhône River Valley were used. We experimentally compared the effects of the geographical origin of both the gammarid populations and the leaf litter species on the shredding activity and the physiological state of animals (through body triglyceride content. This study demonstrated that leaf toughness is more important than geographical origin for determining shredder leaf litter consumption. The overall consumption rate of the gammarid populations from the southern region of Rhône Valley was much higher than that of the populations from the northern region, but no clear differences between the origins of the leaf litter (i.e., continental vs. Mediterranean were observed. The northwards shift of G. pulex populations adapted to warmer conditions might significantly modify organic matter recycling in continental streams. As gammarid populations can demonstrate local adaptations to certain leaf species as a trophic resource, changes in riparian vegetation associated with climate change
Effect of limestone dust on vegetation in an area with a Mediterranean climate
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gale, J; Easton, J
1979-01-01
Possible effects of limestone dust on photosynthesis and transpiration throughout the summer season were assessed. Calculations were based on measurements of the dust accumulating on the leaves during the summer season, photosynthesis light curves of representative species, effect of dust on the optical characteristics of the leaves and stomatal diffusion resistances in the region of the quarry based on meteorological data. On a seasonal basis the dust was calculated to have only a very small effect in reducing photosynthesis and transpiration. A field experiment in which irrigated Xanthium strumarium plants were grown at different distances downwind from the quarry showed no deleterious effect of the dust even when plants close to the quarry were heavily coated. Comparison of aerial photographs taken just before the quarry was opened and 22 years later revealed no changes in the size, number or distribution pattern of the perennial, tree and shrub vegetation. It is concluded that, in an area with a Mediterranean climate, limestone dust, whilst being aesthetically offensive, does not significantly affect the growth of the natural vegetation. 13 references, 5 figures, 3 tables.
Jiang, Rengui; Xie, Jiancang; He, Hailong; Kuo, Chun-Chao; Zhu, Jiwei; Yang, Mingxiang
2016-09-01
As one of the most popular vegetation indices to monitor terrestrial vegetation productivity, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to study the plant growth and vegetation productivity around the world, especially the dynamic response of vegetation to climate change in terms of precipitation and temperature. Alberta is the most important agricultural and forestry province and with the best climatic observation systems in Canada. However, few studies pertaining to climate change and vegetation productivity are found. The objectives of this paper therefore were to better understand impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in Alberta using the NDVI and provide reference for policy makers and stakeholders. We investigated the following: (1) the variations of Alberta's smoothed NDVI (sNDVI, eliminated noise compared to NDVI) and two climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) using non-parametric Mann-Kendall monotonic test and Thiel-Sen's slope; (2) the relationships between sNDVI and climatic variables, and the potential predictability of sNDVI using climatic variables as predictors based on two predicted models; and (3) the use of a linear regression model and an artificial neural network calibrated by the genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) to estimate Alberta's sNDVI using precipitation and temperature as predictors. The results showed that (1) the monthly sNDVI has increased during the past 30 years and a lengthened growing season was detected; (2) vegetation productivity in northern Alberta was mainly temperature driven and the vegetation in southern Alberta was predominantly precipitation driven for the period of 1982-2011; and (3) better performances of the sNDVI-climate relationships were obtained by nonlinear model (ANN-GA) than using linear (regression) model. Similar results detected in both monthly and summer sNDVI prediction using climatic variables as predictors revealed the applicability of two models for
Li, Furong; Zhao, Yan; Gaillard, Marie José; Li, Huan; Sun, Jinghui; Xu, Qinghai
2017-01-01
Fossil pollen records are widely used to reconstruct past climate. Such reconstructions require that the relationships between pollen assemblages, vegetation, and climate are well understood. These can be studied in present circumstances given we assume that modern vegetation and climate are
Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass
Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Plutzar, Christoph; Bais, Anna Liza S.; Carvalhais, Nuno; Fetzel, Tamara; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Lauk, Christian; Niedertscheider, Maria; Pongratz, Julia; Thurner, Martin; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan
2018-01-01
Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.
Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass.
Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Plutzar, Christoph; Bais, Anna Liza S; Carvalhais, Nuno; Fetzel, Tamara; Gingrich, Simone; Haberl, Helmut; Lauk, Christian; Niedertscheider, Maria; Pongratz, Julia; Thurner, Martin; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan
2018-01-04
Carbon stocks in vegetation have a key role in the climate system. However, the magnitude, patterns and uncertainties of carbon stocks and the effect of land use on the stocks remain poorly quantified. Here we show, using state-of-the-art datasets, that vegetation currently stores around 450 petagrams of carbon. In the hypothetical absence of land use, potential vegetation would store around 916 petagrams of carbon, under current climate conditions. This difference highlights the massive effect of land use on biomass stocks. Deforestation and other land-cover changes are responsible for 53-58% of the difference between current and potential biomass stocks. Land management effects (the biomass stock changes induced by land use within the same land cover) contribute 42-47%, but have been underestimated in the literature. Therefore, avoiding deforestation is necessary but not sufficient for mitigation of climate change. Our results imply that trade-offs exist between conserving carbon stocks on managed land and raising the contribution of biomass to raw material and energy supply for the mitigation of climate change. Efforts to raise biomass stocks are currently verifiable only in temperate forests, where their potential is limited. By contrast, large uncertainties hinder verification in the tropical forest, where the largest potential is located, pointing to challenges for the upcoming stocktaking exercises under the Paris agreement.
Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment
Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston
2010-01-01
Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...
Turco, Marco; Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Saaroni, Hadas
2017-04-01
On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980-2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982-2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987-2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.
Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.
2015-06-01
Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.
Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100
Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.
2006-12-01
A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the
László Phd, Dd. M.
2009-04-01
. Negative effects (drought, excess rainfall) were diminished by 20-25% with Mg treatments. c, Correlation between rye yields and precipitation during vegetation seasons showed that optimum yield (4.0 t ha-1) develops in the 430-470 mm range. 2. Potato: a, Trial years were estimated by recurrent extremes of climate. b, In vegetation seasons poor in rainfall yield safety in potato cannot be secured by fertilisation (N, NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg) alone. Under this weather condition yield was decreased by 35%. c, Optimum yields range between 17-21 t ha-1 at 280-350 mm. 3. Winter wheat: a, Climate was manifested mainly by precipitation using average, drought, dry and rainy levels. b, Yields from drought year effects with N, NP and NK combinations were diminished to 48% and with NPK and NPKMg treatments fell to 51%. c, Optimum yields (3.5-4.0 t ha-1) were developed at 450-500 mm. This paper summarises quantified results of rye, potato and winter wheat research with regarding to interaction effects and relationships between climate (rainfall)-mineral nutrition-crop production changes in Hungary during a long term field experiment to agricultural sustainability. Key words: ecology, rainfall, crop, fertilization, yield Introduction: "Climate Change" are recognized as a serious environmental issues [1]. Presently the build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the inertia in trends in emissions means that we can expect significant changes for at least the next few decades and probably for the whole 21th century too [2]. It would badly need to understand what might be involved in adapting to the new climates. A decade ago, researchers asked the „what if" question. For example, what will be the impact if climate changes. Now, we must increasingly address the following question: how do we respond effectivelly to prevent damaging impacts and take advantage of new climatic opportunities [3]. This question requires detailed in information regarding expected impacts and effect
Vegetation Response to Changing Climate - A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin in Nepal Himalaya
Panthi, J., Sr.; Kirat, N. H.; Dahal, P.
2015-12-01
The climate of the Himalayan region is changing rapidly - temperature is increasingly high and rainfall has become unpredictable. IPCC predicts that average annual mean temperature over the Asian land mass, including the Himalayas, will increase by about 3°C by the 2050s and about 5°C by the 2080s and the average annual precipitation in this region will increase by 10-30% by 2080s. Climate and the human activities can influence the land cover status and the eco-environmental quality. There are enough evidences that there is strong interaction between climate variability and ecosystems. A project was carried out in Gandaki river basin in central Nepal to analyze the relationship of NDVI vegetation index with the temperature, rainfall and snowcover information. The relationships were analyzed for different landuses classes-grassland, forest and agriculture. Results show that the snowcover area is decreasing at the rate of 0.15% per year in the basin. The NDVI shows seasonal fluctuations and lightly correlated with the rainfall and temperature.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Dostálek, J.; Frantík, Tomáš
2011-01-01
Roč. 66, č. 5 (2011), s. 837-847 ISSN 0006-3088 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0571 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : climate change * dry grassland * vegetation coverage Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 0.557, year: 2011
Fifteen years of enhanced vegetation index data from the MODIS sensor are examined in conjunction with precipitation and the Palmer drought severity index to assess how well growing season conditions for vegetation within grazing allotments of Nevada can be predicted at different times of the year. ...
Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)
Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.
2012-04-01
temperature while maize is more vulnerable to climate change, especially to hot and dry RCMs/2071-2100/SRES A1B scenario. Against the current climatic conditions, temperature rise foreseen by both scenarios brings about a decrease of the vegetation period. Under these conditions, the rising of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) during the two climate change projected intervals have a positive effect on photosynthesis, which might lead to increase yields, thus counteracting the negative effect of shortening the vegetation period. Under the same climate change conditions, the maize yield shrinks, but more acute in the case of RCMs/2071-2100 scenario due to temperature raise which trigger shortening of the vegetation period coupled with water stress, especially during the flowering and yield formation interval (May-August).
Responses of Montane Forest to Climate Variability in the Central Himalayas of Nepal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janardan Mainali
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Climate changes are having dramatic ecological impacts in mid- to high-latitude mountain ranges where growth conditions are limited by climatic variables such as duration of growing season, moisture, and ambient temperature. We document patterns of forest vegetative response for 5 major alpine forest communities to current climate variability in the central Himalayas of Nepal to provide a baseline for assessment of future changes, as well as offer some insight into the trajectory of these changes over time. We used mean monthly surface air temperature and rainfall and the monthly averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI to compare relative vegetation productivity among forest types and in relation to both climatic variables. Because changes in temperature and precipitation are directly manifested as changes in phenology, we examined current vegetative responses to climate variability in an effort to determine which climate variable is most critical for different alpine forest types. Our results show that correlations differ according to vegetation type and confirm that both precipitation and temperature affect monthly NDVI values, though more significant correlations were found with temperature data. The temperature response was more consistent because at the maximum increased temperatures, there was still an ongoing increase in vegetative vigor. This indicates that temperature is still the major limiting factor for plant growth at higher-elevation sites. This part of the Himalayas has abundant moisture, and some forest types are already saturated in terms of growth in relation to precipitation. Clear increases in productivity are documented on the upper treeline ecotones, and these systems are likely to continue to have increasing growth rates.
Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria
2015-04-01
The Tagus river basin is located in a transitional region between humid and semi-arid climate. The lower part of the basin is a strategic source of water for Portugal, providing water for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supplies for over 4 million people. Climate change in this region is expected to lead to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, therefore increasing climatic aridity. In this transitional region, this could lead to an increased frequency of severe droughts, threatening climatic support for current agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the sustainability of domestic water supplies. This work evaluated the impacts of climate change on drought frequency and severity for the Portuguese part of the Tagus river basin. Climate change scenarios for 2010-2100 (A2 greenhouse emission scenarios) were statistically downscaled for the study area. They were evaluated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, which simulated vegetation water demand and drought stress, soil water availability, irrigation abstraction, streamflow, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge. Water inflows from Spain were estimated using an empirical climate-based model. Drought occurrence and severity was analyzed in terms of: * meteorological drought, based on (i) the Standardized Precipitation Index and (ii) the Aridity Index; * vegetation/agricultural drought, based on plant water stress; * hydrological drought, based on (i) streamflow rates and (ii) reservoir storage; * socio-economic drought, based on (i) the capacity of the main reservoir in the system (Castelo de Bode) to sustain hydropower and domestic supplies, and (ii) the rate of groundwater extraction vs. irrigation demands for the cultures located in the intensive cultivation regions of the Lezírias near the Tagus estuary. The results indicate a trend of increasing frequency and severity of most drought types during the XXIst century, with a
Lake-level increasing under the climate cryoaridization conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum
Amosov, Mikhail; Strelkov, Ivan
2017-04-01
A lake genesis and lake-level increasing during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are the paramount issues in paleoclimatology. Investigating these problems reveals the regularities of lake development and figures out an arid territory conditions at the LGM stage. Pluvial theory is the most prevalent conception of lake formation during the LGM. This theory is based on a fact that the water bodies emerged and their level increased due to torrential rainfalls. In this study, it is paid attention to an alternative assumption of lake genesis at the LGM stage, which is called climate cryoaridization. In accordance with this hypothesis, the endorheic water basins had their level enlarged because of a simultaneous climate aridity and temperature decrease. In this research, a lake-level increasing in endorheic regions of Central Asia and South American Altiplano of the Andes is described. The lake investigation is related to its conditions during the LGM. The study also includes a lake catalogue clearly presenting the basin conditions at the LGM stage and nowadays. The data compilation partly consists of information from an earlier work of Mikhail Amosov, Lake-levels, Vegetation And Climate In Central Asia During The Last Glacial Maximum (EGU2014-3015). According to the investigation, a lake catalogue on 27 lakes showed that most of the water bodies had higher level. This feature could be mentioned for the biggest lakes of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Issyk-Kul etc. and for the small ones located in the mountains, such as Pamir, Tian-Shan and Tibet. Yet some lakes that are situated in Central Asian periphery (Lake Qinghai and lakes in Inner Mongolia) used to be lower than nowadays. Also, the lake-level increasing of Altiplano turned to be a significant feature during the LGM in accordance with the data of 5 lakes, such as Titicaca, Coipasa-Uyuni, Lejia, Miscanti and Santa-Maria. Most of the current endorheic basins at the LGM stage were filled with water due to abundant
Peteet, Dorothy; Andreev, Andrei; Bardeen, William; Mistretta, Francesca
1998-01-01
Stratigraphic analyses of peat composition, LOI, pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, and AMS ages are used to reconstruct the peatland, vegetation and climatic dynamics in the Pur-Taz region of western Siberia over 5000 years (9300 - 4500 BP). Section stratigraphy shows many changes from shallow lake sediment to different combinations of forested or open sedge, moss, and Equisetum fen and peatland environments. Macrofossil and pollen data indicate that Larix sibirica and Betula pubescens trees were first to arrive, followed by Picea obovata. The dominance of Picea macrofossils 6000-5000 BP in the Pur-Taz peatland along with regional Picea pollen maxima indicate warmer conditions and movement of the spruce treeline northward at this time. The decline of pollen and macrofossils from all of these tree species in uppermost peats suggests a change in the environment less favorable for their growth, perhaps cooler temperatures and/or less moisture. Of major significance is the evidence for old ages of the uppermost peats in this area of Siberia, suggesting a real lack of peat accumulation in recent millennia or recent oxidation of uppermost peat.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olchev, A; Kurbatova, J; Novenko, E; Desherevskaya, O; Krasnorutskaya, K
2009-01-01
Effects of possible climatic and vegetation changes on H 2 O and CO 2 fluxes in boreal forest ecosystems of the central part of European Russia were quantified using modeling and experimental data. The future pattern of climatic conditions for the period up to 2100 was derived using the global climatic model ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al 2003 The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model Description, Report 349 (Hamburg: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology) p 127) with the A1B emission scenario. The possible trends of future vegetation changes were obtained by reconstructions of vegetation cover and paleoclimatic conditions in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, as provided from pollen and plant macrofossil analysis of profiles in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (CFSNBR). Applying the method of paleoanalogues demonstrates that increasing the mean annual temperature, even by 1-2 deg. C, could result in reducing the proportion of spruce in boreal forest stands by up to 40%. Modeling experiments, carried out using a process-based Mixfor-SVAT model, show that the expected future climatic and vegetation changes lead to a significant increase of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) of the boreal forests. Despite the expected warming and moistening of the climate, the modeling experiments indicate a relatively weak increase of annual evapotranspiration (ET) and even a reduction of transpiration (TR) rates of forest ecosystems compared to present conditions.
Variations in pollen counts largely explained by climate and weather
Jung, Stephan; Damialis, Athanasios; Estrella, Nicole; Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette
2017-04-01
The interaction between climate and vegetation is well studied within phenology. Climatic / weather conditions affect e.g. flowering date, length of vegetation period, start and end of the season and the plant growth. Besides phenological stages also pollen counts can be used to investigate the interaction between climate and vegetation. Pollen emission and distribution is directly influenced by temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity/precipitation. The objective of this project is to study daily/sub daily variations in pollen counts of woody and herbaceous plant species along an altitudinal gradient with different climatic conditions during the vegetation period. Measurements of pollen were carried out with three volumetric pollen traps installed at the altitudes 450 m a.s.l (Freising), 700 m a.s.l (Garmisch-Partenkirchen), and 2700 m a.s.l (Schneefernerhaus near Zugspitze) representing gradient from north of Munich towards the highest mountain of Germany. Airborne pollen concentrations were recorded during the years 2014-2015. The altitudinal range of these three stations accompanied by different microclimates ("space for time approach") can be used as proxy for climate change and to assess its impact on pollen counts and thus allergenic risk for human health. For example the pollen season is shortened and pollen amount is reduced at higher sites. For detailed investigations pollen of the species Plantago, Quercus, Poaceae, Cupressaceae, Cyperacea, Betula and Platanus were chosen, because those are found in appropriate quantities. In general, pollen captured in the pollen traps to a certain extent has its origin from the immediate surrounding. Thus, it mirrors local species distribution. But furthermore the distance of pollen transport is also based on (micro-) climatic conditions, land cover and topography. The pollen trap shortly below the summit of Zugspitze (Schneefernerhaus) has an alpine environment without vegetation nearby. Therefore, this
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dorji, Ugyen; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind; Bøcher, Peder Klith
2016-01-01
Bhutan, located in the Himalayas in the South Asian monsoon region, has extremely high variation in elevation, climatic conditions, and land cover despite its small geographical area, as well as great biodiversity. This paper provides the first comprehensive description of climatic conditions....... The spatial distribution of precipitation was mainly controlled by latitude, having a quadratic relationship, with the highest rates in the southern foothills of the Himalayan range and the lowest at midlatitudes. The land cover is affected by topography and local climate, with variations in temperature being...... a main deciding factor for vegetation types; most human settlements and associated land uses are concentrated at lower elevations....
Peatlands as a unique climatic hotspots
Slowinska, S.; Marcisz, K.; Slowinski, M. M.; Blazejczyk, K.; Lamentowicz, M.
2017-12-01
Peatlands are unique environments, often acting as microrefugia of various taxa. High groundwater table, organic soils, specific vegetation and topography are important determinants of their local climatic conditions. However, relations between those determinants are not stable. For example, seasonal changes in weather patterns, hydrological dynamics, and local vegetation may alter microclimate. Additionally, long-term changes are important factor, as for example overgrowing due to significant change of microclimate conditions, what in turn changes geochemical and biological processes in the peat layer. We have been investigating interactions between abiotic and biotic factors of a small Sphagnum mire (ca. 6.0 ha) for over ten years now. The mire is located in Poland in transitional temperate climate and is the only place in polish lowlands where glacial relict Betula nana occurs. Identification of local climate of the mire, its microclimatic differentiation and its influence on surroundings were objectives of the study. We recorded water level fluctuations, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature and humidity, and peat temperature at five monitoring plots at the mire and observed significant differences between them. We also investigated Sphagnum mosses growth and testate amoeba diversity and community structure to understand biological response of those differences. We observed that local climate of the mire was significantly different from open area reference place, it was much colder especially during nights. The average minimal temperature at the height 30 cm for growing seasons 2010-2012 was 3.7oC lower there and ground frosts occurred even in the summer. The climate of the mire affected the forest directly adjacent to it, and depending on weather conditions the strength and the distance of this interaction was different. Our results show that micro-environmental changes affects on biological processes and should be taken into consideration
King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.
2013-01-01
Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions
King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J
2013-01-01
Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions
King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J
2013-12-01
Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and
Mapping of the Land Cover Spatiotemporal Characteristics in Northern Russia Caused by Climate Change
Panidi, E.; Tsepelev, V.; Torlopova, N.; Bobkov, A.
2016-06-01
The study is devoted to the investigation of regional climate change in Northern Russia. Due to sparseness of the meteorological observation network in northern regions, we investigate the application capabilities of remotely sensed vegetation cover as indicator of climate change at the regional scale. In previous studies, we identified statistically significant relationship between the increase of surface air temperature and increase of the shrub vegetation productivity. We verified this relationship using ground observation data collected at the meteorological stations and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data produced from Terra/MODIS satellite imagery. Additionally, we designed the technique of growing seasons separation for detailed investigation of the land cover (shrub cover) dynamics. Growing seasons are the periods when the temperature exceeds +5°C and +10°C. These periods determine the vegetation productivity conditions (i.e., conditions that allow growth of the phytomass). We have discovered that the trend signs for the surface air temperature and NDVI coincide on planes and river floodplains. On the current stage of the study, we are working on the automated mapping technique, which allows to estimate the direction and magnitude of the climate change in Northern Russia. This technique will make it possible to extrapolate identified relationship between land cover and climate onto territories with sparse network of meteorological stations. We have produced the gridded maps of NDVI and NDWI for the test area in European part of Northern Russia covered with the shrub vegetation. Basing on these maps, we may determine the frames of growing seasons for each grid cell. It will help us to obtain gridded maps of the NDVI linear trend for growing seasons on cell-by-cell basis. The trend maps can be used as indicative maps for estimation of the climate change on the studied areas.
Updated vegetation information in high resolution WRF simulations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Joakim Refslund; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.
2013-01-01
modify the energy distribution at the land surface. In weather and climate models it is important to represent the vegetation variability accurately to obtain reliable results. The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model uses green vegetation fraction (GVF) time series to represent vegetation...... seasonality. The GVF of each grid cell is additionally used to scale other parameters such as LAI, roughness, emissivity and albedo within predefined intervals. However, the default GYP used by WRF does not reflect recent climatic changes or change in management practices since it was derived more than 20...
Shellito, C. J.; Sloan, L. C.
2004-12-01
A major turnover in benthic marine and terrestrial fauna marks the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) (~55Ma), a period of ~150 ky in which there was a rapid rise in deep sea and high latitude sea surface temperatures by 5-8C. Curiously, no major responses to this warming in the terrestrial floral record have been detected to date. Here, we present results from experiments examining the response of the global distribution of vegetation to changes in climate at the IETM using the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate, and thus, provide a unique new method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in Earth's past. However, there are a number of drawbacks to using these models that can affect interpretation of results. More specifically, these drawbacks involve uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM, and lack of available detail regarding paleo-geography and paleo-soil type for use in model boundary conditions. For a better understanding of these drawbacks, we present results from a series of tests in the NCAR LSM-DGVM which examine (1) the effect of removing C4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. We consider our DGVM results for the IETM in light of output from these sensitivity experiments.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. J. A. Werger
1983-11-01
Full Text Available Southern Africa is characterized by a highly diversified vegetational cover with extremes as contrasting as desert, tropical forest, alpine grassland, or mediterranean type scrub, and many other types in between. This vegetational pattern is strongly correlated to the climatological pattern. It is therefore likely that past changes in climate can still be partly traced in the vegetational pattern, particularly in geographical anomalies, and that study of these patterns provides complementary evidence to palynological research. The following anomalies in the vegetational pattern are briefly discussed: 1. island-wise occurrence of Afro-montane vegetation on mesic, sheltered sites in the southern Sudano- Zambezian Region, in particular in the Highveld grassland/False Karoo transition area; 2. similar westward occurrence of Sudano-Zambezian scrub patches in the Karoo-Namib Region near the Orange/Vaal confluence; 3. scattered occurrence of Sudano-Zambezian woody species in a matrix of Karoo-Namib vegetation in the marginal Karoo-Namib Region; 4. island-wise occurrence of frost-tolerant, dry, karroid dwarf shrub vegetation of predominantly C,-plants on isolated peaks in the winter rainfall area of Namaqualand; 5. peculiar patchy distribution of some succulents in wide areas of climatically rather homogeneous, succulent dwarf shrub vegetation of predominantly CAM-plants in the escarpment area of Namaqualand. a pattern reminiscent of that in many Cape fynbos species. Interpretation of these patterns logically leads to the conclusion that these result from a previously wetter, a previously cooler, or a previously wetter and cooler climate, respectively, over the parts of southern Africa under discussion. This conclusion is compared with published palynological views.
Zhang, Q.; Tan, Z.; Xu, X.
2017-12-01
Exemplified in the Yangtze River floodplain lake, Poyang Lake, investigations were carried out to examine the dependence of vegetation on hydrological variables. The Lake is one of the few lakes that remain naturally connected to the Yangtze River. The Lake surface expanses to 4000 km2 in wet seasons, and reduces to less than 1000 km2 in dry seasons, creating some 3000 km2 vital wetland habitats for many animals. Remote sensing was used to obtain the spatial distribution of wetland vegetations. A lake hydrodynamic model using MIKE 21 was employed to determine the variability of wetland inundation. In-situ high time frequency observations of climate, soil moisture, and groundwater depth were also conducted in a typical wetland transect of 1 km long. Vegetations were sampled periodically to obtain species composition, diversity and biomass. Results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation highly depended on the inundation duration and depth. Optimal hydrological variables existed for the typical vegetations in Poyang Lake wetland. Numerical simulations using HYDRUS-1D further demonstrated that both groundwater depth and soil moisture had significant effects on the growth of vegetation and the water demand in terms of transpiration, even in a wet climate zone such as middle Yangtze River. It was found that the optimal groundwater depths existed for both above- and belowground biomass. Simulation scenarios indicated that climate changes and human modification of hydrology would affect the water usage of vegetation and may cause a strategic adaptation of the vegetation to the stressed hydrological conditions. The study revealed new knowledge on the high dependence of wetland vegetation on both surface water regime and groundwater depths, in wet climate zone. Outcomes of this study may provide support for an integrated management of balancing water resources development and wetland sustainability maintenance in Poyang Lake, and other floodplain wetlands, with
Ferreira, Fabio Cop; Souza, Ursulla Pereira; Petrere Junior2, Miguel
2015-01-01
Abstract The riparian vegetation in lakes and reservoirs is source of course wood structures such as trunks and branches and is used as sheltering, spawning and foraging habitats for fishes. The reduction of these submerged structures can thus, affect the composition and structure of fish assemblages in reservoirs. Aim To evaluate the influence of riparian vegetation on the biotic condition of fish assemblage by adapting the Reservoir Fish Assemblage Index (RFAI) to two reservoirs in the Upp...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabio Cop Ferreira
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract The riparian vegetation in lakes and reservoirs is source of course wood structures such as trunks and branches and is used as sheltering, spawning and foraging habitats for fishes. The reduction of these submerged structures can thus, affect the composition and structure of fish assemblages in reservoirs. Aim To evaluate the influence of riparian vegetation on the biotic condition of fish assemblage by adapting the Reservoir Fish Assemblage Index (RFAI to two reservoirs in the Upper Paranapanema river basin, São Paulo State, Brazil. Methods The RFAI was adapted from metrics related to the functional characteristics and composition of fish assemblages through a protocol of metric selection and validation, and to its response to the presence of riparian vegetation. Results The final RFAI was composed by nine metrics, been lower in sites without riparian vegetation as consequence of the predominance of larger individuals and the percent of piscivorous and detritivorous fishes. Conclusions These results suggest that increasing shore habitat complexity in reservoirs by maintaining riparian vegetation increases fish biotic integrity.
Micro climate Simulation in new Town `Hashtgerd' using downscaled climate data
Sodoudi, S.
2010-12-01
One of the objectives of climatological part of project Young Cities ‘Developing Energy-Efficient Urban Fabric in the Tehran-Karaj Region’ is to simulate the micro climate (with 1m resolution) in 35ha of new town Hashtgerd, which is located 65 km far from mega city Tehran. The Project aims are developing, implementing and evaluating building and planning schemes and technologies which allow to plan and build sustainable, energy-efficient and climate sensible form mass housing settlements in arid and semi-arid regions (energy-efficient fabric). Climate sensitive form also means designing and planning for climate change and its related effects for Hashtgerd New Town. By configuration of buildings and open spaces according to solar radiation, wind and vegetation, climate sensitive urban form can create outdoor thermal comfort. To simulate the climate on small spatial scales, the micro climate model Envi-met has been used to simulate the micro climate in 35 ha. The Eulerian model ENVI-met is a micro-scale climate model which gives information about the influence of architecture and buildings as well as vegetation and green area on the micro climate up to 1 m resolution. Envi-met has been run with information from topography, downscaled climate data with neuro-fuzzy method, meteorological measurements, building height and different vegetation variants (low and high number of trees) The first results were compared with each other and show In semi-arid climates the protection from solar radiation is of major importance. This can be achieved by implementation of vegetation and geometry of buildings. Due to the geographical location and related sun’s orbit the degree of shading in this area is rather low. Technical construction such awnings have to be implemented. A second important factor is wind. The design follows the idea to block the prevailing winds from west and northwest as well as the hot and dusty winds in summer time from the southeast but at the same time
Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California
Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.
2016-01-01
Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as
Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jon E. Keeley
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grogan, Paul; Jonasson, Sven Evert
2006-01-01
General circulation models consistently predict that regional warming will be most rapid in the Arctic, that this warming will be predominantly in the winter season, and that it will often be accompanied by increasing snowfall. Paradoxically, despite the strong cold season emphasis in these predi...... will respond to climate change during winter because they indicate a threshold (~1 m) above which there would be little effect of increased snow accumulation on wintertime biogeochemical cycling....... in these predictions, we know relatively little about the plot and landscape-level controls on tundra biogeochemical cycling in wintertime as compared to summertime. We investigated the relative influence of vegetation type and climate on CO2 production rates and total wintertime CO2 release in the Scandinavian...... subarctic. Ecosystem respiration rates and a wide range of associated environmental and substrate pool size variables were measured in the two most common vegetation types of the region (birch understorey and heath tundra) at four paired sites along a 50 km transect through a strong snow depth gradient...
New views on changing Arctic vegetation
Kennedy, Robert E.
2012-03-01
As climate changes, how will terrestrial vegetation respond? Because the fates of many biogeochemical, hydrological and economic cycles depend on vegetation, this question is fundamental to climate change science but extremely challenging to address. This is particularly true in the Arctic, where temperature change has been most acute globally (IPCC 2007) and where potential feedbacks to carbon, energy and hydrological cycles have important implications for the rest of the Earth system (Chapin et al 2000). It is well known that vegetation is tightly coupled to precipitation and temperature (Whittaker 1975), but predicting the response of vegetation to changes in climate involves much more than invoking the limitations of climate envelopes (Thuiller et al 2008). Models must also consider efficacy of dispersal, soil constraints, ecological interactions, possible CO2 fertilization impacts and the changing impact of other, more proximal anthropogenic effects such as pollution, disturbance, etc (Coops and Waring 2011, Lenihan et al 2008, Scheller and Mladenoff 2005). Given this complexity, a key test will be whether models can match empirical observations of changes that have already occurred. The challenge is finding empirical observations of change that are appropriate to test hypothesized impacts of climate change. As climate gradually changes across broad bioclimatic gradients, vegetation condition may change gradually as well. To capture these gradual trends, observations need at least three characteristics: (1) they must quantify a vegetation attribute that is expected to change, (2) they must measure that attribute in exactly the same way over long periods of time, and (3) they must sample diverse communities at geographic scales commensurate with the scale of expected climatic shifts. Observation networks meeting all three criteria are rare anywhere on the globe, but particularly so in remote areas. For this reason, satellite images have long been used as a
Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.
2012-12-01
For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This
Kern, A.; Baker, P. A.; Cruz, F. W., Sr.; Dwyer, G. S.; Silva, C. G.; Oliveira, A. S.; Willard, D. A.
2016-12-01
Northeastern (NE) Brazil is characterized today by a dry climate and vegetation, which separate the humid forests of the Amazonia from those along the Atlantic coast. Species composition and molecular genetics suggest phases of exchange between these forests in the past and the NE region is the most likely corridor for migration. However, the vegetation history of the NE is largely unknown, leaving questions on the impact of glacial stages on the forest composition and the timing of cyclic transitions from tropical rainforest to semi-arid vegetation or vice versa. Here, we present preliminary results from a marine record recovered from the equatorial Brazilian continental margin covering the last 1.5 Ma. Pollen-based reconstructions across several glacial and interglacial stages provide data on vegetation expansion and retraction of these different biomes. Vegetation changes during drying/cooling events in the NE, which may be linked to movements of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone or/and intensities of the South American Monsoon System. Increases in terrestrial input to the core site during these climatic events may be of NE origin or Amazon origin. In the latter case, these increases would mark a decrease or reversal of the strength of the North Brazil Current. This study is funded by FAPESP projects 2015/18314-7, 2014/05582-0 and the FAPESPBIOTA/NSF-Dimensions project 2012/50260-6).
Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem
White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.
2008-01-01
Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire
Pound, Matthew J; Salzmann, Ulrich
2017-02-24
Rapid global cooling at the Eocene - Oligocene Transition (EOT), ~33.9-33.5 Ma, is widely considered to mark the onset of the modern icehouse world. A large and rapid drop in atmospheric pCO 2 has been proposed as the driving force behind extinctions in the marine realm and glaciation on Antarctica. However, the global terrestrial response to this cooling is uncertain. Here we present the first global vegetation and terrestrial temperature reconstructions for the EOT. Using an extensive palynological dataset, that has been statistically grouped into palaeo-biomes, we show a more transitional nature of terrestrial climate change by indicating a spatial and temporal heterogeneity of vegetation change at the EOT in both hemispheres. The reconstructed terrestrial temperatures show for many regions a cooling that started well before the EOT and continued into the Early Oligocene. We conclude that the heterogeneous pattern of global vegetation change has been controlled by a combination of multiple forcings, such as tectonics, sea-level fall and long-term decline in greenhouse gas concentrations during the late Eocene to early Oligocene, and does not represent a single response to a rapid decline in atmospheric pCO 2 at the EOT.
Li, Haidong; Jiang, Jiang; Chen, Bin; Li, Yingkui; Xu, Yuyue; Shen, Weishou
2016-03-01
The eastern Himalayas, especially the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon Nature Reserve (YNR), is a global hotspot of biodiversity because of a wide variety of climatic conditions and elevations ranging from 500 to > 7000 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The mountain ecosystems at different elevations are vulnerable to climate change; however, there has been little research into the patterns of vegetation greening and their response to global warming. The objective of this paper is to examine the pattern of vegetation greening in different altitudinal zones in the YNR and its relationship with vegetation types and climatic factors. Specifically, the inter-annual change of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its variation along altitudinal gradient between 1999 and 2013 was investigated using SPOT-VGT NDVI data and ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM) data. We found that annual NDVI increased by 17.58% in the YNR from 1999 to 2013, especially in regions dominated by broad-leaved and coniferous forests at lower elevations. The vegetation greening rate decreased significantly as elevation increased, with a threshold elevation of approximately 3000 m. Rising temperature played a dominant role in driving the increase in NDVI, while precipitation has no statistical relationship with changes in NDVI in this region. This study provides useful information to develop an integrated management and conservation plan for climate change adaptation and promote biodiversity conservation in the YNR.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Montoya, M L [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik
1999-07-01
Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich auch
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Montoya, M.L. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik
1999-07-01
Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich
Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem
Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.
2010-01-01
This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater‐influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2
Chapter 7: Developing climate-informed state-and-transition models
Miles A. Hemstrom; Jessica E. Halofsky; David R. Conklin; Joshua S. Halofsky; Dominique Bachelet; Becky K. Kerns
2014-01-01
Land managers and others need ways to understand the potential effects of climate change on local vegetation types and how management activities might be impacted by climate change. To date, climate change impact models have not included localized vegetation communities or the integrated effects of vegetation development dynamics, natural disturbances, and management...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Su Yean Teh
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.
Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Assaf Anyamba
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya.We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004-2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3-4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found
Fischer, H.
2017-12-01
The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cortes S, Sandra P; Van der Hammen, Thomas; Rangel Ch, J Orlando
1999-01-01
Two physiognomic plant communities were characterized: open vegetation which include the associations Dichondro repentis - Cupheetum serpyllifoliae (meadows), Baccharido rupicolae - Dodonaeetum viscosae (low shrubby vegetation), Andropogono aequatoriensis - Epidendretum elongatae (casmophytic vegetation) and Chaetolepido microphyllae-Espeletiopsietum corymbosae (shrubby vegetation-type with rosette plants). The closed vegetation includes two kinds of forests, Miconio ligustrinae- Weinmannietum tomentosae and Daphnopsio caracasanae - Xylosmetum spiculiferae. According to the floristic composition, depth of the soil, slope climate, relief and the anthropic influence (including degradation and natural succession), two trends in plant succession were defined
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Blok, Daan; Heijmans, Monique M P D; Berendse, Frank [Nature Conservation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen (Netherlands); Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela [Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zuerich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zuerich (Switzerland); Bartholomeus, Harm [Centre for Geo-Information, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen (Netherlands); Maximov, Trofim C, E-mail: daan.blok@wur.nl [Biological Problems of the Cryolithozone, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Division, 41, Lenin Prospekt, Yakutsk, The Republic of Sakha, Yakutia 677980 (Russian Federation)
2011-07-15
Recently observed Arctic greening trends from normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data suggest that shrub growth is increasing in response to increasing summer temperature. An increase in shrub cover is expected to decrease summer albedo and thus positively feed back to climate warming. However, it is unknown how albedo and NDVI are affected by shrub cover and inter-annual variations in the summer climate. Here, we examine the relationship between deciduous shrub fractional cover, NDVI and albedo using field data collected at a tundra site in NE Siberia. Field data showed that NDVI increased and albedo decreased with increasing deciduous shrub cover. We then selected four Arctic tundra study areas and compiled annual growing season maximum NDVI and minimum albedo maps from MODIS satellite data (2000-10) and related these satellite products to tundra vegetation types (shrub, graminoid, barren and wetland tundra) and regional summer temperature. We observed that maximum NDVI was greatest in shrub tundra and that inter-annual variation was negatively related to summer minimum albedo but showed no consistent relationship with summer temperature. Shrub tundra showed higher albedo than wetland and barren tundra in all four study areas. These results suggest that a northwards shift of shrub tundra might not lead to a decrease in summer minimum albedo during the snow-free season when replacing wetland tundra. A fully integrative study is however needed to link results from satellite data with in situ observations across the Arctic to test the effect of increasing shrub cover on summer albedo in different tundra vegetation types.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blok, Daan; Heijmans, Monique M P D; Berendse, Frank; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela; Bartholomeus, Harm; Maximov, Trofim C
2011-01-01
Recently observed Arctic greening trends from normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data suggest that shrub growth is increasing in response to increasing summer temperature. An increase in shrub cover is expected to decrease summer albedo and thus positively feed back to climate warming. However, it is unknown how albedo and NDVI are affected by shrub cover and inter-annual variations in the summer climate. Here, we examine the relationship between deciduous shrub fractional cover, NDVI and albedo using field data collected at a tundra site in NE Siberia. Field data showed that NDVI increased and albedo decreased with increasing deciduous shrub cover. We then selected four Arctic tundra study areas and compiled annual growing season maximum NDVI and minimum albedo maps from MODIS satellite data (2000-10) and related these satellite products to tundra vegetation types (shrub, graminoid, barren and wetland tundra) and regional summer temperature. We observed that maximum NDVI was greatest in shrub tundra and that inter-annual variation was negatively related to summer minimum albedo but showed no consistent relationship with summer temperature. Shrub tundra showed higher albedo than wetland and barren tundra in all four study areas. These results suggest that a northwards shift of shrub tundra might not lead to a decrease in summer minimum albedo during the snow-free season when replacing wetland tundra. A fully integrative study is however needed to link results from satellite data with in situ observations across the Arctic to test the effect of increasing shrub cover on summer albedo in different tundra vegetation types.
The Impact of Climate Change on Recent Vegetation Changes on Dovrefjell, Norway
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jarle Inge Holten
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The ongoing climate warming has been reported to affect a broad range of organisms, and mountain ecosystems are considered to be particularly sensitive because they are limited by low temperatures. Meteorological data show an increased temperature for the alpine areas at Dovrefjell, Norway, causing a prolonged growing season and increased temperature sum. As part of the worldwide project Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA, the short-term changes in vascular plant species richness, species composition of lichen and vascular plant communities, and abundance of single species were studied at four summits representing an altitudinal gradient from the low alpine to the high alpine zone. During the period from 2001 to 2008, an increase in species richness at the lowest summit, as well as a change in the composition of vascular plant communities, was found at the two lowest summits. The results also indicate an increase in abundance of some shrubs and graminoids and a decline in the cover of some species of lichens at the lowest summit. These changes are in accordance with climate induced changes reported in other studies, but other causes for the observed vegetation changes, in particular changes in grazing and trampling pressure, cannot be ruled out.
Effects of Warming Hiatuses on Vegetation Growth in the Northern Hemisphere
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hong Wei
2018-04-01
Full Text Available There have been hiatuses in global warming since the 1990s, and their potential impacts have attracted extensive attention and discussion. Changes in temperature not only directly affect the greening of vegetation but can also indirectly alter both the growth state and the growth tendency of vegetation by altering other climatic elements. The middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH constitute the region that has experienced the most warming in recent decades; therefore, identifying the effects of warming hiatuses on the vegetation greening in that region is of great importance. Using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data and climatological observation data from 1982–2013, we investigated hiatuses in warming trends and their impact on vegetation greenness in the NH. Our results show that the regions with warming hiatuses in the NH accounted for 50.1% of the total area and were concentrated in Mongolia, central China, and other areas. Among these regions, 18.8% of the vegetation greenness was inhibited in the warming hiatus areas, but 31.3% of the vegetation grew faster. Because temperature was the main positive climatic factor in central China, the warming hiatuses caused the slow vegetation greening rate. However, precipitation was the main positive climatic factor affecting vegetation greenness in Mongolia; an increase in precipitation accelerated vegetation greening. The regions without a warming hiatus, which were mainly distributed in northern Russia, northern central Asia, and other areas, accounted for 49.9% of the total area. Among these regions, 21.4% of the vegetation grew faster over time, but 28.5% of the vegetation was inhibited. Temperature was the main positive factor affecting vegetation greenness in northern Russia; an increase in temperature promoted vegetation greening. However, radiation was the main positive climatic factor in northern central Asia; reductions in radiation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Feifei Pan
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Based on 541 Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, the normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVIs of the wetland vegetation at Xitugou (XTG and Wowachi (WWC inside the Dunhuang Yangguan National Nature Reserve (YNNR in northwest China were calculated for assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland vegetation in the YNNR. It was found that the wetland vegetation at the XTG and WWC had both shown a significant increasing trend in the past 20–30 years and the increase in both the annual mean temperature and annual peak snow depth over the Altun Mountains led to the increase of the wetland vegetation. The influence of the local precipitation on the XTG wetland vegetation was greater than on the WWC wetland vegetation, which demonstrates that in extremely arid regions, the major constraint to the wetland vegetation is the availability of water in soils, which is greatly related to the surface water detention and discharge of groundwater. At both XTG and WWC, the snowmelt from the Altun Mountains is the main contributor to the groundwater discharge, while the local precipitation plays a lesser role in influencing the wetland vegetation at the WWC than at the XTG, because the wetland vegetation grows on a relatively flat terrain at the WWC, while it grows on a stream channel at the XTG.
Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem
Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.
2010-01-01
This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater-influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration
Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.
Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun
2016-02-01
This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.
Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra
2016-04-01
A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time
Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang
2016-08-01
The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to.
Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik
2017-01-01
for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts......The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate....... Both under 2010 and 2050 climatic conditions, four subscenarios were modelled, based on a combination of two soil types and two climates. Included in the assessment were seed production, soil preparation, fertilization, pesticide application, and harvest. When processes in the life cycle resulted in co...
Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.
Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S
2016-06-05
South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).
Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn
2002-01-01
The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
saeid shafiei
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Introduction Various factors like climatic conditions, vegetation, soil properties, topography, time, plant residue quality and crop management strategies affect the decomposition rate of organic carbon (OC and its residence time in soil. Plant residue management concerns nutrients recycling, carbon recycling in ecosystems and the increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Plant residue decomposition is a fundamental process in recycling of organic matter and elements in most ecosystems. Soil management, particularly plant residue management, changes soil organic matter both qualitatively and quantitatively. Soil respiration and carbon loss are affected by soil temperature, soil moisture, air temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. In natural agro-ecosystems, residue contains different concentrations of nitrogen. It is important to understand the rate and processes involved in plant residue decomposition, as these residues continue to be added to the soil under different weather conditions, especially in arid and semi-arid climates. Material and methods Organic carbon mineralization of alfalfa residue with different nitrogen concentrations was assessed in different climatic conditions using split-plot experiments over time and the effects of climate was determined using composite analysis. The climatic conditions were classified as warm-arid (Jiroft, temperate arid (Narab and cold semi-arid (Sardouiyeh using cluster analysis and the nitrogen (N concentrations of alfalfa residue were low, medium and high. The alfalfa residue incubated for four different time periods (2, 4, 6 and 8 months. The dynamics of organic carbon in different regions measured using litter bags (20×10 cm containing 20 g alfalfa residue of 2-10 mm length which were placed on the soil surface. Results and discussion The results of this study showed that in a warm-arid (Jiroft, carbon loss and the carbon decomposition rate constant were low in a cold semi
Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?
Balcerak, Ernie
2011-08-01
For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)
Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions
Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie
2013-04-01
Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been
Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter
2017-04-01
Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.
Xie, Tian; Cui, Baoshan; Bai, Junhong; Li, Shanze; Zhang, Shuyan
2018-02-01
Determining how human disturbance affects plant community persistence and species conservation is one of the most pressing ecological challenges. The large-scale disturbance form defense structures usually have a long-term and potential effect on phytocommunity in coastal saltmarshes. Coastal defense structures usually remove the effect of tidal wave on tidal salt marshes. As a consequence, edaphic factors such as the salinity and moisture contents are disturbed by tidal action blocking. However, few previous studies have explicitly addressed the response of halophyte species persistence and dynamics to the changing edaphic conditions. The understanding of the response of species composition in seed banks and aboveground vegetation to the stress is important to identify ecological effect of coastal defense structures and provide usefully insight into restoration. Here, we conducted a field study to distinguish the density, species composition and relationships of seed bank with aboveground vegetation between tidal flat wetlands with and without coastal defense structures. We also addressed the role of edaphic condition in vegetation degradation caused by coastal defense structures in combination with field monitor and greenhouse experiments. Our results showed the density of the seed bank and aboveground vegetation in the tidal flat without coastal defense structures was significantly lower than the surrounded flat with coastal defense structures. A total of 14 species were founded in the surrounded flat seed bank and 11 species in the tidal flat, but three species were only recorded in aboveground vegetation of the tidal flat which was much lower than 24 aboveground species in the surrounded flat. The absent of species in aboveground vegetation contributed to low germination rate which depend on the edaphic condition. The germination of seeds in the seed bank were inhabited by high soil salinity in the tidal flat and low soil moisture in the surrounded flat. Our
D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch
2017-01-01
Aridland riparian ecosystems are limited, the climate is changing, and further hydrological change is likely in the American Southwest. To protect riparian ecosystems and organisms, we need to understand how they are affected by disturbance processes and stressors such as fire, drought, and non-native plant invasions. Riparian vegetation is critically important as...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jesslyn F. Brown
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Monitoring systems benefit from high temporal frequency image data collected from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS system. Because of near-daily global coverage, MODIS data are beneficial to applications that require timely information about vegetation condition related to drought, flooding, or fire danger. Rapid satellite data streams in operational applications have clear benefits for monitoring vegetation, especially when information can be delivered as fast as changing surface conditions. An “expedited” processing system called “eMODIS” operated by the U.S. Geological Survey provides rapid MODIS surface reflectance data to operational applications in less than 24 h offering tailored, consistently-processed information products that complement standard MODIS products. We assessed eMODIS quality and consistency by comparing to standard MODIS data. Only land data with known high quality were analyzed in a central U.S. study area. When compared to standard MODIS (MOD/MYD09Q1, the eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI maintained a strong, significant relationship to standard MODIS NDVI, whether from morning (Terra or afternoon (Aqua orbits. The Aqua eMODIS data were more prone to noise than the Terra data, likely due to differences in the internal cloud mask used in MOD/MYD09Q1 or compositing rules. Post-processing temporal smoothing decreased noise in eMODIS data.
Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.
2013-12-01
Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience
Use of vegetation health data for estimation of aus rice yield in bangladesh.
Rahman, Atiqur; Roytman, Leonid; Krakauer, Nir Y; Nizamuddin, Mohammad; Goldberg, Mitch
2009-01-01
Rice is a vital staple crop for Bangladesh and surrounding countries, with interannual variation in yields depending on climatic conditions. We compared Bangladesh yield of aus rice, one of the main varieties grown, from official agricultural statistics with Vegetation Health (VH) Indices [Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and Vegetation Health Index (VHI)] computed from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data covering a period of 15 years (1991-2005). A strong correlation was found between aus rice yield and VCI and VHI during the critical period of aus rice development that occurs during March-April (weeks 8-13 of the year), several months in advance of the rice harvest. Stepwise principal component regression (PCR) was used to construct a model to predict yield as a function of critical-period VHI. The model reduced the yield prediction error variance by 62% compared with a prediction of average yield for each year. Remote sensing is a valuable tool for estimating rice yields well in advance of harvest and at a low cost.
Use of Vegetation Health Data for Estimation of Aus Rice Yield in Bangladesh
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Nizamuddin
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Rice is a vital staple crop for Bangladesh and surrounding countries, with interannual variation in yields depending on climatic conditions. We compared Bangladesh yield of aus rice, one of the main varieties grown, from official agricultural statistics with Vegetation Health (VH Indices [Vegetation Condition Index (VCI, Temperature Condition Index (TCI and Vegetation Health Index (VHI] computed from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR data covering a period of 15 years (1991–2005. A strong correlation was found between aus rice yield and VCI and VHI during the critical period of aus rice development that occurs during March-April (weeks 8–13 of the year, several months in advance of the rice harvest. Stepwise principal component regression (PCR was used to construct a model to predict yield as a function of critical-period VHI. The model reduced the yield prediction error variance by 62% compared with a prediction of average yield for each year. Remote sensing is a valuable tool for estimating rice yields well in advance of harvest and at a low cost.
Booth, R.K.; Jackson, S.T.; Thompson, T.A.
2002-01-01
We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum-dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (???8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occured contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga. Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate. ?? 2002 University of Washington.
Vegetation Response to Upper Pliocene Glacial/Interglacial Cyclicity in the Central Mediterranean
Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie
1993-09-01
New detailed pollen analysis of the lower part of the Upper Pliocene Semaforo section (Crotone, Italy) documents cyclic behavior of vegetation at the beginning of the Northern Hemisphere glaciations. The competition between four vegetation units (subtropical humid forest, deciduous temperate forest, altitudinal coniferous forest, and open xeric assemblage) probably reflects modifications of vegetation belts at this montane site. Several increases in herbaceous open vegetation regularly alternate with subtropical humid forest, which expresses rapid climatic oscillations. The complete temporal succession—deciduous forest (rich in Quercus), followed by subtropical humid forest (Taxodiaceae and Cathaya), then altitudinal coniferous forest ( Tsuga, Cedrus, Abies, and Picea), and finally herbaceous open vegetation (Graminae, Compositae, and Artemisia )—displays the climatic evolution from warm and humid interglaciation to cold and dry glaciation. It also suggests an independent variation of temperature and humidity, the two main climatic parameters. The vegetation history of southern Calabria recorded in the Semaforo section have been correlated with the ∂ 18O signal established in the Atlantic Ocean.
Carbohydrates and phenols as quantitative molecular vegetation proxies in peats
Kaiser, K.; Benner, R. H.
2012-12-01
Vegetation in peatlands is intricately linked to local environmental conditions and climate. Here we use chemical analyses of carbohydrates and phenols to reconstruct paleovegetation in peat cores collected from 56.8°N (SIB04), 58.4°N (SIB06), 63.8°N (G137) and 66.5°N (E113) in the Western Siberian Lowland. Lignin phenols (vanillyl and syringyl phenols) were sensitive biomarkers for vascular plant contributions and provided additional information on the relative contributions of angiosperm and gymnosperm plants. Specific neutral sugar compositions allowed identification of sphagnum mosses, sedges (Cyperaceae) and lichens. Hydroxyphenols released by CuO oxidation were useful tracers of sphagnum moss contributions. The three independent molecular proxies were calibrated with a diverse group of peat-forming plants to yield quantitative estimates (%C) of vascular plant, sphagnum moss and lichen contributions in peat core samples. Correlation analysis indicated the three molecular proxies produced fairly similar results for paleovegetation compositions, generally within the error interval of each approach (≤26%). The lignin-based method generally lead to higher estimates of vascular plant vegetation. Several significant deviations were also observed due to different reactivities of carbohydrate and phenolic polymers during peat decomposition. Rapid vegetation changes on timescales of 50-200 years were observed in the southern cores SIB04 and SIB06 over the last 2000 years. Vanillyl and syringyl phenol ratios indicated these vegetation changes were largely due to varying inputs of angiosperm and gymnosperm plants. The northern permafrost cores G137 and E113 showed a more stable development. Lichens briefly replaced sphagnum mosses and vascular plants in both of these cores. Shifts in vegetation did not correlate well with Northern hemisphere climate variability over the last 2000 years. This suggested that direct climate forcing of peatland dynamics was overridden
Menking, Kirsten M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Anderson, Roger Y.
2012-01-01
Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an 1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, 5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.
Post Fire Vegetation Recovery in Greece after the large Drought event of 2007
Gouveia, Célia M.; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo
2013-04-01
Fire is a natural factor of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, fire regimes in the European Mediterranean areas have been changing in the last decades, mainly due to land-use changes and climate driven factors possibly associated with climatic warming (e.g. decline of precipitation, increasing temperatures but also higher frequency of heatwaves). In Greece, the fire season of 2007 was particularly devastating, achieving the new all-time record of estimated burnt area (225 734 ha), since 1980. Additionally, we must stress that prior to the summer fire season in 2007, Greece suffered an exceptional drought event. This severe drought had a strong negative impact in vegetation dynamics. Since water availability is a crucial factor in post-fire vegetation recovery, it is desirable to assess the impact that such water-stress conditions had on fire sensitivity and post-fire vegetation recovery. Based on monthly values of NDVI, at the 1km×1km spatial scale, as obtained from the VEGETATION-SPOT5 instrument, from 1999 to 2010, large burnt scars are identified in Greece, during 2007 fire season. Vegetation recovery is then assessed based on a mono parametric regression model originally developed by Gouveia et al. (2010) to identify large burnt scars in Portugal during the 2003 fire season and after applied to 2005 fire season (Bastos et al., 2012). Some large burnt areas are selected and the respective NDVI behaviour is monitored throughout the pre and the post fire period. The vegetation dynamics during the pre-fire period is analysed and related to the extreme climatic events that characterised the considered period. An analysis is made of the dependence of recovery rates on land cover types and fire damage. Finally results are compared to results already obtained for Portugal (Gouveia et al. 2010). This work emphasises the use of a simple methodology, when applied to low resolution satellite imagery in order to monitor vegetation recovery after large fires events over
Blatt, Alexandria D; Roe, Liane S; Rolls, Barbara J
2011-04-01
The overconsumption of energy-dense foods leads to excessive energy intakes. The substitution of low-energy-dense vegetables for foods higher in energy density can help decrease energy intakes but may be difficult to implement if individuals dislike the taste of vegetables. We investigated whether incorporating puréed vegetables to decrease the energy density of entrées at multiple meals reduced daily energy intakes and increased daily vegetable intakes. In this crossover study, 20 men and 21 women ate ad libitum breakfast, lunch, and dinner in the laboratory once a week for 3 wk. Across conditions, entrées at meals varied in energy density from standard versions (100% condition) to reduced versions (85% and 75% conditions) by the covert incorporation of 3 or 4.5 times the amount of puréed vegetables. Entrées were accompanied by unmanipulated side dishes. Participants rated their hunger and fullness before and after meals. Subjects consumed a consistent weight of foods across conditions of energy density; thus, the daily energy intake significantly decreased by 202 ± 60 kcal in the 85% condition (P kcal in the 75% condition (P Daily vegetable consumption significantly increased from 270 ± 17 g of vegetables in the 100% condition to 487 ± 25 g of vegetables in the 75% condition (P < 0.0001). Despite the decreased energy intake, ratings of hunger and fullness did not significantly differ across conditions. Entrées were rated as similar in palatability across conditions. Large amounts of puréed vegetables can be incorporated into various foods to decrease the energy density. This strategy can lead to substantial reductions in energy intakes and increases in vegetable intakes. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01165086.
Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.
2012-04-01
Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato
Simulated impacts of land cover change on summer climate in the Tibetan Plateau
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Qian; Xue Yongkang
2010-01-01
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a key region of land-atmosphere interactions with severe eco-environment degradation. This study uses an atmospheric general circulation model, NCEP GCM/SSiB, to present the major TP summer climate features for six selected ENSO years and preliminarily assess the possible impact of land cover change on the summer circulation over the TP. Compared to Reanalysis II data, the GCM using satellite derived vegetation properties generally reproduces the main 6-year-mean TP summer circulation features despite some discrepancies in intensity and geographic locations of some climate features. Two existing vegetation maps with very different land cover conditions over the TP, one with bare ground and one with vegetation cover, derived from satellite derived data, are tested and produce clearer climate signals due to land cover change. It shows that land cover change from vegetated land to bare ground decreases the radiation absorbed by the surface and results in weaker surface thermal effects, which lead to lower atmospheric temperature, as well as weaker vertical ascending motion, low-layer cyclonic, upper level anticyclonic, and summer monsoon circulation. These changes in circulation cause a decrease in the precipitation in the southeastern TP.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
2017-12-12
Our overall goal in this research was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal was motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we tested the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming. In collaboration with our Purdue and MIT colleagues, we have attempted to quantify global climate warming effects on land-atmosphere interactions, land-river network interactions, permafrost degradation, vegetation shifts, and land use influence water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes to and from terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-arctic along with their
Response of the Amazon rainforest to late Pleistocene climate variability
Häggi, Christoph; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Merkel, Ute; Mulitza, Stefan; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael; Schefuß, Enno
2017-12-01
Variations in Amazonian hydrology and forest cover have major consequences for the global carbon and hydrological cycles as well as for biodiversity. Yet, the climate and vegetation history of the lowland Amazon basin and its effect on biogeography remain debated due to the scarcity of suitable high-resolution paleoclimate records. Here, we use the isotopic composition (δD and δ13C) of plant-waxes from a high-resolution marine sediment core collected offshore the Amazon River to reconstruct the climate and vegetation history of the integrated lowland Amazon basin for the period from 50,000 to 12,800 yr before present. Our results show that δD values from the Last Glacial Maximum were more enriched than those from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the present-day. We interpret this trend to reflect long-term changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation, with overall drier conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results thus suggest a dominant glacial forcing of the climate in lowland Amazonia. In addition to previously suggested thermodynamic mechanisms of precipitation change, which are directly related to temperature, we conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation are crucial to explain the temporal evolution of Amazonian rainfall variations, as demonstrated in climate model experiments. Our vegetation reconstruction based on δ13C values shows that the Amazon rainforest was affected by intrusions of savannah or more open vegetation types in its northern sector during Heinrich Stadials, while it was resilient to glacial drying. This suggests that biogeographic patterns in tropical South America were affected by Heinrich Stadials in addition to glacial-interglacial climate variability.
Ecogeomorphology of Sand Dunes Shaped by Vegetation
Tsoar, H.
2014-12-01
Two dune types associated with vegetation are known: Parabolic and Vegetated Linear Dunes (VLDs), the latters are the dominant dune type in the world deserts. Parabolic dunes are formed in humid, sub-humid and semi-arid environments (rather than arid) where vegetation is nearby. VLDs are known today in semiarid and arid lands where the average yearly rainfall is ≥100 mm, enough to support sparse cover of vegetation. These two dune types are formed by unidirectional winds although they demonstrate a different form and have a distinct dynamics. Conceptual and mathematical models of dunes mobility and stability, based on three control parameters: wind power (DP), average annual precipitation (p), and the human impact parameter (μ) show that where human impact is negligible the effect of wind power (DP) on vegetative cover is substantial. The average yearly rainfall of 60-80 mm is the threshold of annual average rainfall for vegetation growth on dune sand. The model is shown to follow a hysteresis path, which explains the bistability of active and stabilized dunes under the same climatic conditions with respect to wind power. We have discerned formation of parabolic dunes from barchans and transverse dunes in the coastal plain of Israel where a decrease in human activity during the second half of the 20th century caused establishment of vegetation on the crest of the dunes, a process that changed the dynamics of these barchans and transverse dunes and led to a change in the shape of the windward slope from convex to concave. These dunes gradually became parabolic. It seems that VLDs in Australia or the Kalahari have always been vegetated to some degree, though the shrubs were sparser in colder periods when the aeolian erosion was sizeable. Those ancient conditions are characterized by higher wind power and lower rainfall that can reduce, but not completely destroy, the vegetation cover, leading to the formation of lee (shadow) dunes behind each shrub. Formation of
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Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D.; Ferre Bueno, E.; Martinez-Murillo, J. F.; Gabarron-Galeote, M. A.
2009-01-01
The Andalusian Mediterranean Watershed, in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, shows a climatic gradient from the Straits of Gibraltar (1,600 mm year - 1) to the Cabo de Gata (150 mm year 1 ). Climate conditions differences are translating into variations in the elements of the eco-geomorphologic system at hillslope scale. In this study has been analysed the immediate consequences of a period of two years drought (2004-06) on several elements of the Mediterranean eco-geomorphologic system at three hillslopes (sub-humid, dry Mediterranean and semi-arid). the soil water content, the pattern of vegetation and some soil properties (organic matter content, aggregate stability and permeability) were analysed before (Nov-2003) and during (Nov-2005) the drought period. Final results have shown: i) reduction in soil water content which reached in the wet seasons values below wilting point, affecting negatively to the water available for vegetation and especially in the wettest sites; ii) reduction in vegetation cover and in the number of plants, especially at semi-arid field site; iii) changes in the organic matter content which aggravates the loss of stability of soil aggregates, a process seen more clearly under more arid conditions; and iv) reduction of soil permeability in all situations in the climate gradient studied, which supposes a priori an increase in erosive processes due to surface runoff. These results indicate increased vulnerability of the eco-geomorphologic system because of the rainfall drought situation. (Author) 14 refs.
Strengers, B.J.; Müller, C.; Schaeffer, M.; Haarsma, R.J.; Severijns, C.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Houdt, Van den R.; Oostenrijk, R.
2010-01-01
This study describes the coupling of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), Lund–Potsdam–Jena Model for managed land (LPJmL), with the general circulation model (GCM), Simplified Parameterizations primitivE Equation DYnamics model (SPEEDY), to study the feedbacks between land-use change and
Sarkar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Chiu, L.; Kafatos, M.
2005-12-01
Increasing population and urbanization have created stress on developing nations. The quickly shifting patterns of vegetation change in different parts of the world have given rise to the pertinent question of feedback on the climate prevailing on local to regional scales. It is now known with some certainty, that vegetation changes can affect the climate by influencing the heat and water balance. The hydrological cycle particularly is susceptible to changes in vegetation. The Monsoon rainfall forms a vital link in the hydrological cycle prevailing over South East Asia This work examines the variability of vegetation over South East Asia and assesses its impact on the monsoon rainfall. We explain the role of changing vegetation and show how this change has affected the heat and energy balance. We demonstrate the role of vegetation one season earlier in influencing rainfall intensity over specific areas in South East Asia and show the ramification of vegetation change on the summer rainfall behavior. The vegetation variability study specifically focuses on India and China, two of the largest and most populous nations. We have done an assessment to find out the key meteorological and human induced parameters affecting vegetation over the study area through a spatial analysis of monthly NDVI values. This study highlights the role of monsoon rainfall, regional climate dynamics and large scale human induced pollution to be the crucial factors governing the vegetation and vegetation distribution. The vegetation is seen to follow distinct spatial patterns that have been found to be crucial in its eventual impact on monsoon rainfall. We have carried out a series of sensitivity experiments using a land surface hydrologic modeling scheme. The vital energy and water balance parameters are identified and the daily climatological cycles are examined for possible change in behavior for different boundary conditions. It is found that the change from native deciduous forest
Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California
Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.
2015-12-01
The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).
Oscillations in a simple climate–vegetation model
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J. Rombouts
2015-05-01
Full Text Available We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate–vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate–vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.
Climatic and ecological aspects of desertification
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Mabbutt, J A
1977-01-01
An ecosystematic approach to the study of desertification is urged in order to develop an integrated and balanced understanding of the interacting systems, such as vegetation and animal grazing. Desertification as a result of drought conditions of the 1960s and 1970s and man's impact on desert lands is viewed as an urgent problem that is hampered by the lack of climatic records and the extremely variable desert rainfall. The author explores questions of whether the recent African drought is part of a cycle or is a long-term shift in climatic zones; to what extent human activities (such as farming on marginal land) have contributed to desert formation; the possibility of long-range weather forecasting to predict fluctuations and cycles in rainfall; and the opportunities available for modifying desert climates. Measures to counter desertification include management of animal population, vegetation, and water, and include remedial practices of reducing herds and allowing lands to rest and regenerate. The physical changes associated with sand-drifting and gully erosion are described. The need for proper surveys, monitoring, and assessments of land-use systems is stressed. (DCK)
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Khaldoun Rishmawi
2016-11-01
Full Text Available In water limited environments precipitation is often considered the key factor influencing vegetation growth and rates of development. However; other climate variables including temperature; humidity; the frequency and intensity of precipitation events are also known to affect productivity; either directly by changing photosynthesis and transpiration rates or indirectly by influencing water availability and plant physiology. The aim here is to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation responses to precipitation and to additional; relevant; meteorological variables. First; an empirical; statistical analysis of the relationship between precipitation and the additional meteorological variables and a proxy of vegetation productivity (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI is reported and; second; a process-oriented modeling approach to explore the hydrologic and biophysical mechanisms to which the significant empirical relationships might be attributed. The analysis was conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa; between 5 and 18°N; for a 25-year period 1982–2006; and used a new quasi-daily Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR dataset. The results suggest that vegetation; particularly in the wetter areas; does not always respond directly and proportionately to precipitation variation; either because of the non-linearity of soil moisture recharge in response to increases in precipitation; or because variations in temperature and humidity attenuate the vegetation responses to changes in water availability. We also find that productivity; independent of changes in total precipitation; is responsive to intra-annual precipitation variation. A significant consequence is that the degree of correlation of all the meteorological variables with productivity varies geographically; so no one formulation is adequate for the entire region. Put together; these results demonstrate that vegetation responses to meteorological variation are more
Greening Kenya’s drylands through climate-smart agriculture
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Quevenco, Rodolfo
2015-01-01
Arid and semi-arid lands account for almost 80 per cent of Kenya’s land area, and climate change is threatening this fragile ecosystem. In a country where suboptimal agricultural practices already result in poor crop growth, low vegetative cover, low crop yields and serious land degradation, weather conditions resulting from climate change and variability have made drought and water scarcity common. Using nuclear techniques, the IAEA is helping Kenya improve soil fertility and water management technologies, as part of the introduction of Integrated Soil Fertility Management, which can help maintain the right water, nutrient and carbon balance and maximize climate change adaptation in agricultural systems.
Arsenic uptake and speciation in vegetables grown under greenhouse conditions.
Smith, E; Juhasz, A L; Weber, J
2009-04-01
The accumulation of arsenic (As) by vegetables is a potential human exposure pathway. The speciation of As in vegetables is an important consideration due to the varying toxicity of different As species. In this study, common Australian garden vegetables were hydroponically grown with As-contaminated irrigation water to determine the uptake and species of As present in vegetable tissue. The highest concentrations of total As were observed in the roots of all vegetables and declined in the aerial portions of the plants. Total As accumulation in the edible portions of the vegetables decreased in the order radish > mung bean > lettuce = chard. Arsenic was present in the roots of radish, chard, and lettuce as arsenate (As(V)) and comprised between 77 and 92% of the total As present, whereas in mung beans, arsenite (As(III)) comprised 90% of the total As present. In aerial portions of the vegetables, As was distributed equally between both As(V) and As(III) in radish and chard but was present mainly as As(V) in lettuce. The presence of elevated As in vegetable roots suggests that As species may be complexed by phytochelatins, which limits As translocation to aerial portions of the plant.
Shrestha, R.; Mitchell, J. J.; Glenn, N. F.; Flores, A. N.
2014-12-01
The distribution of species and vegetation types across the western US are expected to shift in response to climate change. Previous studies have documented the change in fire regime and the increasing fire-invasive grass cycle occurring in the western U.S. The change in vegetation structure due to climate change and invasive species alters the fuel load, making these ecosystems vulnerable to high-severity fire. Synergistic remote sensing data, such as hyperspectral data and high-resolution lidar, can be leveraged to capture the composition and structural variability of short-statured semiarid vegetation (e.g. sagebrush, annual grasses). We use a random-forests based fusion technique to integrate multi-source airborne data (hyperspectral and LiDAR) and generate spatially-explicit estimates of vegetation composition and structure (biomass, cover, density, height, LAI) and associated uncertainty across a climate and elevation gradient in southern Idaho. The results will be used to initialize an individual-based terrestrial biosphere model (Ecosystem Demography, ED2) and estimate structural dynamics under future scenarios. This study will provide a basis for understanding feedback mechanisms related to changing climate conditions, fire regimes and patterns of non-native plant invasion. The forthcoming field and remote sensing collection campaigns are also designed for parameterizing a dryland shrub plant functional type in the ED2 model.
Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011
Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.
2012-12-01
Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;
Uno, K. T.; Boisserie, J. R.; Cerling, T. E.; Polissar, P. J.
2017-12-01
Reconstructing vegetation at hominid localities in eastern Africa remains a significant challenge for examining the role of climate and environment in human evolution. Plant wax biomarker approaches, particularly carbon isotopes of n-alkyl lipids, have been increasingly used to estimate the proportion of C3 and C4 vegetation in past environments. Identifying new biomarkers indicative of vegetation type, specifically those that can be used to identify (C3) grasses prior to the late Miocene C4 expansion, will enable vegetation reconstructions during the first half of the Neogene, where much remains to be learned about hominid environments. Here, we begin to look beyond carbon isotopes from n-alkyl lipids by analyzing molecular distributions and screening for new plant biomarkers that can be used to identify plant functional types or possibly, more specific taxonomic information. We evaluate molecular distributions, carbon isotope ratios, and pentacyclic triterpenoid methyl esters (PTMEs) in modern soils from a wide range of ecosystems in Ethiopia and Kenya where vegetation types, fraction woody cover, and climatic conditions are known. Preliminary data suggest PTMEs are associated with grassy ecosystems but absent from forested ones. We also find that woody cover can be estimated using n-alkane molecular distributions. This non-isotopic approach to reconstructing woody cover opens the door to reconstructing Neogene vegetation provided the molecular distributions of C3 grasses in the past are similar to those of modern C4 grasses.
Vegetation change, malnutrition and violence in the Horn of Africa
Rowhani, P.; Degomme, O.; Linderman, M.; Guha-Sapir, D.; Lambin, E.
2008-12-01
In certain circumstances, climate change in association with a broad range of social factors may increase the risk of famines and subsequently, violent conflict. The impacts of climate change on society will be experienced both through changes in mean conditions over long time periods and through increases in extreme events. Recent studies have shown the historical effects of long term climate change on societies and the importance of short term climatic triggers on armed conflict. However, most of these studies are at the state level ignoring local conditions. Here we use detailed information extracted from wide-swath satellite data (MODIS) to analyze the impact of climate variability change on malnutrition and violent conflict. More specifically, we perform multivariate logistic regression analysis in order to explain the geographical distribution of malnutrition and conflict in the Horn of Africa on a sub-national level. This region, constituted by several unstable and poor states, has been affected by droughts, floods, famines, and violence in the past few years. Three commonly used nutrition and mortality indicators are used to characterize the health situation (CE-DAT database). To map violence we use the georeferenced Armed Conflicts dataset developed by the Center for the Study of Civil War. Explanatory variables include several socio-economic variables and environmental variables characterizing land degradation, vegetation activity, and interannual variability in land-surface conditions. First results show that interannual variability in land-surface conditions is associated with malnutrition but not with armed conflict. Furthermore, land degradation seems not to be associated with either malnutrition or armed conflict.
Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions
George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy
2015-01-01
The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...
Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas
2018-01-01
Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.
Fire regimes and vegetation responses in two Mediterranean-climate regions
Montenegro, G.; Ginocchio, R.; Segura, A.; Keely, J.E.; Gomez, M.
2004-01-01
Wildfires resulting from thunderstorms are common in some Mediterranean-climate regions, such as southern California, and have played an important role in the ecology and evolution of the flora. Mediterranean-climate regions are major centers for human population and thus anthropogenic impacts on fire regimes may have important consequences on these plant formations. However, changes in fire regimes may have different impacts on Mediterranean type-ecosystems depending on the capability of plants to respond to such perturbations. Therefore, we compare here fire regimes and vegetation responses of two Mediterranean-climate regions which differ in wildfire regimes and history of human occupation, the central zone of Chile (matorral) and the southern area of California in United States (chaparral). In Chile almost all fires result from anthropogenic activities, whereas lightning fires resulting from thunderstorms are frequent in California. In both regions fires are more frequent in summer, due to high accumulation of dry plant biomass for ignition. Humans have markedly increased fires frequency both in the matorral and chaparral, but extent of burned areas has remained unaltered, probably due to better fire suppression actions and a decline in the built-up of dry plant fuel associated to increased landscape fragmentation with less flammable agricultural and urban developments. As expected, post-fire plant regeneration responses differs between the matorral and chaparral due to differences in the importance of wildfires as a natural evolutionary force in the system. Plants from the chaparral show a broader range of post-fire regeneration responses than the matorral, from basal resprouting, to lignotuber resprouting, and to fire-stimulated germination and flowering with fire-specific clues such as heat shock, chemicals from smoke or charred wood. Plants from the matorral have some resprouting capabilities after fire, but these probably evolved from other environmental
Forbes, B. C.; Horstkotte, T.; Utsi, T. A.; Larsson-Blind, Å.; Burgess, P.; Käyhkö, J.; Oksanen, L.; Johansen, B.
2016-12-01
Many primary livelihoods in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions are increasingly faced with accelerating effects of climate change and resource exploitation. The often close connection between indigenous populations and the dynamics of their respective territories allows them to make detailed observations of how these changes transform the landscapes where they practice their daily activities. Here, we report Sami reindeer herders' observations based on their long-term occupancy and use of contrasting pastoral landscapes in northern Fennoscandia. In particular, we focus on the capacity for various herd management regimes to prevent a potential transformation of open tundra vegetation to shrubland or woodland. Fennoscandian Sami herders did not confirm a substantial, rapid or large-scale transformation of treeless arctic-alpine areas into shrub- and/or woodlands as a consequence of climate change. However, where encroachment of open tundra landscapes has been observed, a range of drivers were deemed responsible. These included abiotic conditions, anthropogenic influences and the direct and indirect effects of reindeer. Mountain birch tree line advances were in some cases associated with reduced or discontinued grazing, depending on the seasonal significance of these particular areas. In the many places where tree line has risen, herding practices have by necessity adapted to these changes. Exploiting the capacity of reindeer grazing/browsing as a conservation tool offers new adaptive strategies of ecosystem management to counteract a potential encroachment of the tundra by woody plants. However, such novel solutions in environmental governance are confronted with difficult trade-offs involved in ecosystem management for ecologically reasonable, economically viable and socially desirable management strategies.
David W. Peterson; Becky K. Kerns; Erich Kyle Dodson
2014-01-01
The purpose of this study was to review scientifi c knowledge and model projections on vegetation vulnerability to climatic and other environmental changes in the Pacifi c Northwest, with emphasis on fi ve major biome types: subalpine forests and alpine meadows, maritime coniferous forests, dry coniferous forests, savannas and woodlands (oak and juniper), and interior...
M'mboroki, Kiambi Gilbert; Wandiga, Shem; Oriaso, Silas Odongo
2018-03-29
The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grasslands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 °C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the
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N. Andela
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Drylands, covering nearly 30% of the global land surface, are characterized by high climate variability and sensitivity to land management. Here, two satellite-observed vegetation products were used to study the long-term (1988–2008 vegetation changes of global drylands: the widely used reflective-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and the recently developed passive-microwave-based Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD. The NDVI is sensitive to the chlorophyll concentrations in the canopy and the canopy cover fraction, while the VOD is sensitive to vegetation water content of both leafy and woody components. Therefore it can be expected that using both products helps to better characterize vegetation dynamics, particularly over regions with mixed herbaceous and woody vegetation. Linear regression analysis was performed between antecedent precipitation and observed NDVI and VOD independently to distinguish the contribution of climatic and non-climatic drivers in vegetation variations. Where possible, the contributions of fire, grazing, agriculture and CO2 level to vegetation trends were assessed. The results suggest that NDVI is more sensitive to fluctuations in herbaceous vegetation, which primarily uses shallow soil water, whereas VOD is more sensitive to woody vegetation, which additionally can exploit deeper water stores. Globally, evidence is found for woody encroachment over drylands. In the arid drylands, woody encroachment appears to be at the expense of herbaceous vegetation and a global driver is interpreted. Trends in semi-arid drylands vary widely between regions, suggesting that local rather than global drivers caused most of the vegetation response. In savannas, besides precipitation, fire regime plays an important role in shaping trends. Our results demonstrate that NDVI and VOD provide complementary information and allow new insights into dryland vegetation dynamics.
Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.
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Daniel Argüeso
Full Text Available We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009 and future (2040-2059 simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.
Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.
Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K
2010-12-01
About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.
Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.
2014-12-01
GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest
Muji Susantoro, Tri; Wikantika, Ketut; Saepuloh, Asep; Handoyo Harsolumakso, Agus
2018-05-01
Selection of vegetation indices in plant mapping is needed to provide the best information of plant conditions. The methods used in this research are the standard deviation and the linear regression. This research tried to determine the vegetation indices used for mapping the sugarcane conditions around oil and gas fields. The data used in this study is Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS. The standard deviation analysis on the 23 vegetation indices with 27 samples has resulted in the six highest standard deviations of vegetation indices, termed as GRVI, SR, NLI, SIPI, GEMI and LAI. The standard deviation values are 0.47; 0.43; 0.30; 0.17; 0.16 and 0.13. Regression correlation analysis on the 23 vegetation indices with 280 samples has resulted in the six vegetation indices, termed as NDVI, ENDVI, GDVI, VARI, LAI and SIPI. This was performed based on regression correlation with the lowest value R2 than 0,8. The combined analysis of the standard deviation and the regression correlation has obtained the five vegetation indices, termed as NDVI, ENDVI, GDVI, LAI and SIPI. The results of the analysis of both methods show that a combination of two methods needs to be done to produce a good analysis of sugarcane conditions. It has been clarified through field surveys and showed good results for the prediction of microseepages.
Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Santoro, Maurizio; Tum, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane
2016-04-01
Long-term vegetation dynamics are one of the key uncertainties of the carbon cycle. There are large differences in simulated vegetation carbon stocks and fluxes including productivity, respiration and carbon turnover between global vegetation models. Especially the implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current models and their importance at global scale is highly uncertain. These shortcomings have been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which cannot be provided by inventory data alone. Instead, we recently have been able to estimate northern boreal and temperate forest carbon stocks based on radar remote sensing data. Our spatially explicit product (0.01° resolution) shows strong agreement to inventory-based estimates at a regional scale and allows for a spatial evaluation of carbon stocks and dynamics simulated by global vegetation models. By combining this state-of-the-art biomass product and NPP datasets originating from remote sensing, we are able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests along spatial gradients. We observe an increasing turnover rate with colder winter temperatures and longer winters in boreal forests, suggesting frost damage and the trade-off between frost adaptation and growth being important mortality processes in this ecosystem. In contrast, turnover rate increases with climatic conditions favouring drought and insect outbreaks in temperate forests. Investigated global vegetation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce observation-based spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well in terms of NPP, simulated
Effects of submerged vegetation on water clarity across climates
Kosten, S.; Lacerot, G.; Jeppesen, E.; Motta Marques, D.M.L.; Nes, van E.H.; Mazzeo, N.; Scheffer, M.
2009-01-01
A positive feedback between submerged vegetation and water clarity forms the backbone of the alternative state theory in shallow lakes. The water clearing effect of aquatic vegetation may be caused by different physical, chemical, and biological mechanisms and has been studied mainly in temperate
On the sources of vegetation activity variation, and their relation with water balance in Mexico
F. Mora; L.R. Iverson
1998-01-01
Natural landscape surface processes are largely controlled by the relationship between climate and vegetation. Water balance integrates the effects of climate on patterns of vegetation distribution and productivity, and for that season, functional relationships can be established using water balance variables as predictors of vegetation response. In this study, we...
Vegetation mapping of the Mond Protected Area of Bushehr Province (south-west Iran).
Mehrabian, Ahmadreza; Naqinezhad, Alireza; Mahiny, Abdolrassoul Salman; Mostafavi, Hossein; Liaghati, Homan; Kouchekzadeh, Mohsen
2009-03-01
Arid regions of the world occupy up to 35% of the earth's surface, the basis of various definitions of climatic conditions, vegetation types or potential for food production. Due to their high ecological value, monitoring of arid regions is necessary and modern vegetation studies can help in the conservation and management of these areas. The use of remote sensing for mapping of desert vegetation is difficult due to mixing of the spectral reflectance of bright desert soils with the weak spectral response of sparse vegetation. We studied the vegetation types in the semiarid to arid region of Mond Protected Area, south-west Iran, based on unsupervised classification of the Spot XS bands and then produced updated maps. Sixteen map units covering 12 vegetation types were recognized in the area based on both field works and satellite mapping. Halocnemum strobilaceum and Suaeda fruticosa vegetation types were the dominant types and Ephedra foliata, Salicornia europaea-Suaeda heterophylla vegetation types were the smallest. Vegetation coverage decreased sharply with the increase in salinity towards the coastal areas of the Persian Gulf. The highest vegetation coverage belonged to the riparian vegetation along the Mond River, which represents the northern boundary of the protected area. The location of vegetation types was studied on the separate soil and habitat diversity maps of the study area, which helped in final refinements of the vegetation map produced.
Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn
2002-01-01
The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....
Antecedent conditions influence soil respiration differences in shrub and grass patches
Quantifying the response of soil respiration to past environmental conditions is critical for predicting how future climate and vegetation change will impact ecosystem carbon balance. Increased shrub dominance in semiarid grasslands has potentially large effects on soil carbon cycling. The goal of t...
The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios
Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.
2009-09-01
The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.
Zhang, Qi
2017-04-01
Hydrological regime has been widely recognized as one of the major forces determining vegetation distribution in seasonally flooded wetlands. To explore the influences of hydrological conditions on the spatial distribution of wetland vegetation, an experimental transect in Poyang Lake wetland, the largest freshwater lake in China, was selected as a study area. In-situ high time frequency observations of climate, soil moisture, groundwater level and surface water level were simultaneously conducted. Vegetation was sampled periodically to obtain species composition, diversity and biomass. Results show that significant hydrological gradient exists along the experimental transect. Both groundwater level and soil moisture demonstrate high correlation with the distribution of different communities of vegetation. Above- and belowground biomass present Gaussian models along the gradient of groundwater depth in growing seasons. It was found that the optimal average groundwater depths for above- and belowground biomass are 0.8 m and 0.5 m, respectively. Numerical simulations using HYDRUS-1D further indicated that the groundwater depths had significant influences on the water usage by vegetation, which suggested the high dependence of wetland vegetation on groundwater, even in a wet climate zone such as Poyang Lake. The study revealed new knowledge on the interaction of hydrological regime and wetland vegetation, and provided scientific support for an integrated management of balancing wetland ecology and water resources development in Poyang Lake, and other lake floodplain wetlands, with strong human interferences.