WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate-related extreme events

  1. Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A. G.; Tadross, M.; Nussbaumer, P; Asante, K.; Metzger, M.J.; Rafael, J.; Goujon, A.; Brundrit, G.

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, ...

  2. Assessing current and future impacts of climate-related extreme events. The case of Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Hochrainer-Stigler, S.; Mechler, R.; Pflug, G.

    2010-01-01

    Extreme events and options for managing these risks are receiving increasing attention in research and policy. In order to cost these extremes, a standard approach is to use Integrated Assessment Models with global or regional resolution and represent risk using add-on damage functions that are based on observed impacts and contingent on gradual temperature increase. Such assessments generally find that economic development and population growth are likely to be the major drivers of natural d...

  3. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-26

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  4. Solar extreme events

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, Hugh S.

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative measures, this direct information does not extend more than a century and a half into the recent past. The magnitude distributions (occurrence frequencies) of solar events (flares/CMEs) typically decrease with the parameter measured or inferred (peak flux, mass, e...

  5. Solar extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Hudson, Hugh S

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative measures, this direct information does not extend more than a century and a half into the recent past. The magnitude distributions (occurrence frequencies) of solar events (flares/CMEs) typically decrease with the parameter measured or inferred (peak flux, mass, energy etc. Flare radiation fluxes tend to follow a power law slightly flatter than $S^{-2}$, where S represents a peak flux; solar particle events (SPEs) follow a still flatter power law up to a limiting magnitude, and then appear to roll over to a steeper distribution, which may take an exponential form or follow a broken power law. This inference comes from the terrestrial $^{14}$C record and from the depth dependence of various radioisotope proxies in the lunar regolith and in meteorites. Recently major new observation...

  6. Extreme events in computational turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, P K; Zhai, X M; Sreenivasan, Katepalli R

    2015-10-13

    We have performed direct numerical simulations of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence in a periodic box with 8,192(3) grid points. These are the largest simulations performed, to date, aimed at improving our understanding of turbulence small-scale structure. We present some basic statistical results and focus on "extreme" events (whose magnitudes are several tens of thousands the mean value). The structure of these extreme events is quite different from that of moderately large events (of the order of 10 times the mean value). In particular, intense vorticity occurs primarily in the form of tubes for moderately large events whereas it is much more "chunky" for extreme events (though probably overlaid on the traditional vortex tubes). We track the temporal evolution of extreme events and find that they are generally short-lived. Extreme magnitudes of energy dissipation rate and enstrophy occur simultaneously in space and remain nearly colocated during their evolution. PMID:26424452

  7. Extreme Energy Events Monitoring report

    CERN Document Server

    Baimukhamedova, Nigina

    2015-01-01

    Following paper reflects the progress I made on Summer Student Program within Extreme Energy Events Monitor project I was working on. During 8 week period I managed to build a simple detector system that is capable of triggering events similar to explosions (sudden change in sound levels) and measuring approximate location of the event. Source codes are available upon request and settings described further.

  8. Climate Networks and Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurths, J.

    2014-12-01

    We analyse some climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. The global scale view on climate networks offers promising new perspectives for detecting dynamical structures based on nonlinear physical processes in the climate system. Moreover, we evaluate different regional climate models from this aspect. This concept is also applied to Monsoon data in order to characterize the regional occurrence of extreme rain events and its impact on predictability. Changing climatic conditions have led to a significant increase in magnitude and frequency of spatially extensive extreme rainfall events in the eastern Central Andes of South America. These events impose substantial natural hazards for population, economy, and ecology by floods and landslides. For example, heavy floods in Bolivia in early 2007 affected more than 133.000 households and produced estimated costs of 443 Mio. USD. Here, we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. We apply our method to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and are able to predict a large amount of extreme rainfall events. Our study reveals a linkage between polar and subtropical regimes as responsible mechanism: Extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes is caused by the interplay of northward migrating frontal systems and a low-level wind channel from the western Amazon to the subtropics, providing additional moisture. Frontal systems from the Antarctic thus play a key role for sub-seasonal variability of the South American Monsoon System.

  9. On causality of extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Zanin, Massimiliano

    2016-01-01

    Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect both linear and non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task.

  10. Extreme Events in Nature and Society

    CERN Document Server

    Albeverio, Sergio; Kantz, Holger

    2006-01-01

    Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

  11. The National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J.; Kaiser, D. P.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Boden, T.; Devarakonda, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Climate Change Science Institute at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is establishing the National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED), with the goal of transforming how the United States studies and prepares for extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate. NEED will encourage the myriad, distributed extreme events research communities to move toward the adoption of common practices and will develop a new database compiling global historical data on weather- and climate-related extreme events (e.g., heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) and related information about impacts, costs, recovery, and available research. Currently, extreme event information is not easy to access and is largely incompatible and inconsistent across web sites. NEED's database development will take into account differences in time frames, spatial scales, treatments of uncertainty, and other parameters and variables, and leverage informatics tools developed at ORNL (i.e., the Metadata Editor [1] and Mercury [2]) to generate standardized, robust documentation for each database along with a web-searchable catalog. In addition, NEED will facilitate convergence on commonly accepted definitions and standards for extreme events data and will enable integrated analyses of coupled threats, such as hurricanes/sea-level rise/flooding and droughts/wildfires. Our goal and vision is that NEED will become the premiere integrated resource for the general study of extreme events. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "OME: Tool for generating and managing metadata to handle BigData." Big Data (Big Data), 2014 IEEE International Conference on. IEEE, 2014. [2] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "Mercury: reusable metadata management, data discovery and access system." Earth Science Informatics 3.1-2 (2010): 87-94.

  12. Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

    OpenAIRE

    M. Ghil; Yiou, P.; S. Hallegatte; B. D. Malamud; Naveau, P.; A. Soloviev; Friederichs, P.; Keilis-Borok, V.; Kondrashov, D.; V. Kossobokov; Mestre, O.; Nicolis, C.; Rust, H. W.; P. Shebalin; Vrac, M.

    2011-01-01

    We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction.

    Two important resul...

  13. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony J McMichael

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental c...

  14. Scaling in the Timing of Extreme Events

    OpenAIRE

    Corral, Alvaro

    2014-01-01

    Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the time between these extreme events, called respectively waiting time and quiet time. If the thresholds are high enough it is possible to justify the existence of scaling laws for the probability distribution of the times as a function of the threshold value, ...

  15. Hydrological EXtreme Events in Changing Climate: The HEX Events project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benito, G.; Macklin, M.G.; Cohen, K.M.; Herget, J.

    2013-01-01

    Chronological control of Late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial archives has much improved during the past decades, and this is renewing their use in order to improve records of extreme hydrological events worldwide. A extreme hydrological event is here defined in the sense given by Gregroy et al., (

  16. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations. PMID:26168924

  17. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  18. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  19. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine

    2016-08-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  20. Characteristics of Extreme Auroral Charging Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Willis, Emily; Parker, Linda Neergaard

    2014-01-01

    Today’s presentation describes preliminary results from a study of extreme auroral charging in low Earth orbit. Goal of study is to document characteristics of auroral charging events of importance to spacecraft design, operations, and anomaly investigations.

  1. Extreme events monitoring from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Yann; Bitar, Ahmad Al; Mahmoodi, Ali; Richaume, Philippe; Al-Yaari, Amen; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite was successfully launched in November 2009. This ESA led mission for Earth Observation is dedicated to provide soil moisture over continental surface (with an accuracy goal of 0.04 m3/m3), vegetation water content over land, and ocean salinity. These geophysical features are important as they control the energy balance between the surface and the atmosphere. Their knowledge at a global scale is of interest for climatic and weather researches, and in particular in improving model forecasts. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission has now been collecting data for 6 years. The whole data set has just been reprocessed (Version 620 for levels 1 and 2 and version 3 for level 3 CATDS). After 6 years it seems important to start using data for having a look at anomalies and see how they can relate to large scale events The purpose of this communication is to present the mission results after more than six years in orbit in a climatic trend perspective, as through such a period anomalies can be detected. Thereby we benefit from consistent datasets provided through the latest reprocessing using most recent algorithm enhancements. Using the above mentioned products it is possible to follow large events such as the evolution of the droughts in North America, or water fraction evolution over the Amazonian basin. In this occasion we will focus on the analysis of SMOS and ancillary products anomalies to reveal two climatic trends, the temporal evolution of water storage over the Indian continent in relation to rainfall anomalies, and the global impact of El Nino types of events on the general water storage distribution. This presentation shows in detail the use of long term data sets of L-band microwave radiometry in two specific cases, namely droughts and water budget over a large basin. Several other analyses are under way currently. Obviously, vegetation water content, but also dielectric constant, are carrying a wealth

  2. Hydrological EXtreme Events in Changing Climate: The HEX Events project

    OpenAIRE

    G. Benito; Macklin, M. G.; Cohen, K.M.; J. Herget

    2013-01-01

    Chronological control of Late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial archives has much improved during the past decades, and this is renewing their use in order to improve records of extreme hydrological events worldwide. A extreme hydrological event is here defined in the sense given by Gregroy et al., (2006), meaning any past process or phenomena related to the hydrological cycle (e.g. rainfall, runoff, snowmelt, flood, water recharge) with a magnitude higher/lower than the mean and probably abov...

  3. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  4. Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

    1997-12-31

    A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

  5. Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghil

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction.

    Two important results refer to (i the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

  6. Predictability of extreme events in social media

    CERN Document Server

    Miotto, José M

    2014-01-01

    It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method that, given some information on the items, quantifies the predictability of events, i.e., the potential of identifying in advance the most successful items defined as the upper bound for the quality of any prediction based on the same information. Applying this method to different data, ranging from views in YouTube videos to posts in Usenet discussion groups, we invariantly find that the predictability increases for the most extreme events. This indicates that, despite the inherently stochastic collective dynamics of users, efficient prediction is possible for the most extreme events.

  7. A Fourier analysis of extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2014-01-01

    The extremogram is an asymptotic correlogram for extreme events constructed from a regularly varying stationary sequence. In this paper, we define a frequency domain analog of the correlogram: a periodogram generated from a suitable sequence of indicator functions of rare events. We derive basic ...... properties of the periodogram such as the asymptotic independence at the Fourier frequencies and use this property to show that weighted versions of the periodogram are consistent estimators of a spectral density derived from the extremogram....

  8. On Extreme Events in Banking and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.R.C. Oordt (Maarten)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractUncertainty and new developments spread at an astonishing speed across the globe in financial markets. The recent extreme events in banking and finance triggered many new questions among academics, policy makers and the general public. Is global diversification at financial institutions

  9. Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.

    2013-05-01

    In this talk, I will review some recent work on extreme events, their causes and consequences. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts. US GDP data used in validating the vulnerability paradox found in a Non-Equilibrium Dynamical Model (NEDyM) for studying the impact of extreme events on a dynamic economy. The paradoxical result is that natural hazards affect more strongly an economy in expansion than when it is in a recession. The connection to the macroeconomic data is given by fluctuation-dissipation theory.

  10. Biological Extreme Events - Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutschick, V. P.

    2010-12-01

    Biological extreme events span wide ranges temporally and spatially and in type - population dieoffs, extinctions, ecological reorganizations, changes in biogeochemical fluxes, and more. Driving variables consist in meteorology, tectonics, orbital changes, anthropogenic changes (land-use change, species introductions, reactive N injection into the biosphere), and evolution (esp. of diseases). However, the mapping of extremes in the drivers onto biological extremes as organismal responses is complex, as laid out originally in the theoretical framework of Gutschick and BassiriRad (New Phytologist [2003] 100:21-42). Responses are nonlinear and dependent on (mostly unknown and) complex temporal sequences - often of multiple environmental variables. The responses are species- and genotype specific. I review extreme events over from past to present over wide temporal scales, while noting that they are not wholly informative of responses to the current and near-future drivers for at least two reasons: 1) the current combination of numerous environmental extremes - changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation, reactive N, land fragmentation, O3, etc. -is unprecedented in scope, and 2) adaptive genetic variation for organismal responses is constrained by poorly-characterized genetic structures (in organisms and populations) and by loss of genetic variation by genetic drift over long periods. We may expect radical reorganizations of ecosystem and biogeochemical functions. These changes include many ecosystem services in flood control, crop pollination and insect/disease control, C-water-mineral cycling, and more, as well as direct effects on human health. Predictions of such changes will necessarily be very weak in the critical next few decades, given the great deal of observation, experimentation, and theory construction that will be necessary, on both organisms and drivers. To make the research efforts most effective will require extensive, insightful planning, beginning

  11. Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siri, José Gabriel; Newell, Barry; Proust, Katrina; Capon, Anthony

    2016-03-01

    Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events. PMID:26219559

  12. Community Risk and Resilience to Climate Hazards and Extreme Events in the Turtle Region of Trinidad

    OpenAIRE

    HOLMES, TISHA

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation examines the socio-spatial impacts of climate-related hazards and extreme weather events and associated responses in the Turtle Region of Trinidad & Tobago. The Turtle Region supports a growing eco-tourism industry centered on excursions to remote pristine beaches, hiking trails, waterfalls, and the annual migration of female Leatherback turtles to lay their eggs on natal beaches. The Turtle Region also experiences rapid rates of coastal erosion and severe weather related ev...

  13. Thunderstorms as extreme climate event in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anđelković Goran

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Humankind has been exposed to climate extremes from the very beginning of its existence. Today, prevention and mitigation of natural catastrophes have become a priority for International Union and World Meteorological Organization. Atmospheric electrical discharges and thunders represent an event characteristic of our part of the world in the warm half of a year. This climate event pose a danger to human life and material goods, so this work discusses approximate number of days with thunder and the absolutely highest number of days with thunder in Serbia in the period from 1995 to 2005.

  14. Detecting Extreme Events in Gridded Climate Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramachandra, Bharathkumar [North Carolina State University (NCSU), Raleigh; Gadiraju, Krishna [North Carolina State University (NCSU), Raleigh; Vatsavai, Raju [North Carolina State University (NCSU), Raleigh; Kaiser, Dale Patrick [ORNL; Karnowski, Thomas Paul [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Detecting and tracking extreme events in gridded climatological data is a challenging problem on several fronts: algorithms, scalability, and I/O. Successful detection of these events will give climate scientists an alternate view of the behavior of different climatological variables, leading to enhanced scientific understanding of the impacts of events such as heat and cold waves, and on a larger scale, the El Nin o Southern Oscillation. Recent advances in computing power and research in data sciences enabled us to look at this problem with a different perspective from what was previously possible. In this paper we present our computationally efficient algorithms for anomalous cluster detection on climate change big data. We provide results on detection and tracking of surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies, a trend analysis, and a study of relationships between the variables. We also identify the limitations of our approaches, future directions for research and alternate approaches.

  15. Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Yue-Ping; Booij, Martijn J.; Tong, Yang-Bin

    2010-01-01

    With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrologi

  16. Lower extremity corrective reactions to slip events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cham, R; Redfern, M S

    2001-11-01

    A significant number of injuries in the workplace is attributed to slips and falls. Biomechanical responses to actual slip events determine whether the outcome of a slip will be recovery or a fall. The goal of this study was to examine lower extremity joint moments and postural adjustments for experimental evidence of corrective strategies evoked during slipping in an attempt to prevent falling. Sixteen subjects walked onto a possibly oily vinyl tile floor, while ground reaction forces and body motion were recorded at 350 Hz. The onset of corrective reactions by the body in an attempt to recover from slips became evident at about 25% of stance and continued until about 45% into stance, i.e. on average between 190 and 350 ms after heel contact. These reactions included increased flexion moment at the knee and extensor activity at the hip. The ankle, on the other hand, acted as a passive joint (no net moment) during fall trials. Joint kinematics showed increased knee flexion and forward rotation of the shank in an attempt to bring the foot back towards the body. Once again, the ankle kinematics appeared to play a less dominant role (compared to the knee) in recovery attempts. This study indicates that humans generate corrective reactions to slips that are different than previously reported responses to standing perturbations translating the supporting surface. PMID:11672718

  17. Past hydrological extreme events in a changing climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benito, G.; Macklin, M.G.; Cohen, K.M.; Herget, J.

    2015-01-01

    Fluvial records contain evidence of past hydrological changes in terms of water/sediment fluxes and extreme hydrological events (floods), which can be linked to Earth's climate variability. Sedimentological records of hydrological extremes can be complemented with historical documentary information

  18. Extreme temperature events analyzed with Fast Fourier Transform

    OpenAIRE

    Saa Requejo, Antonio; Tarquis Alfonso, Ana Maria; García Moreno, Rosario; Diaz Alvarez, Maria Cruz; Burgaz, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate events have received increased attention in the last few years, due to the often large loss of agriculture business and exponentially increasing costs associated with them and insurance planning. This increased attention raises the question as to whether extreme weather and climate events are truly increasing, whether this is only a perceived increase exacerbated by enhanced media coverage, or both. There are a number of ways extreme climate events can be defined, ...

  19. Energy Infrastructure and Extreme Events (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakimoto, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    The country's energy infrastructure is sensitive to the environment, especially extreme events. Increasing global temperatures, intense storms, and space weather have the potential to disrupt energy production and transport. It can also provide new opportunities as illustrated by the opening of the Northwest Passage. The following provides an overview of some of the high impacts of major geophysical events on energy production and transport. Future predictions of hurricanes suggest that we can expect fewer storms but they will be associated with stronger winds and more precipitation. The winds and storm surge accompanying hurricane landfall along the Gulf States has had a major impact on the coastal energy infrastructure and the oil/natural gas platforms. The impact of these surges will increase with predicted sea level rise. Hurricane Katrina caused damage to crude oil pipelines and refineries that reduced oil production by 19% for the year. The disruption that can occur is not necessarily linked with the maximum winds of the tropical storm as recently shown by Hurricane Sandy which was classified as a ';post-tropical cyclone' during landfall. Another intense circulation, the tornado, can also cause power outages and network breaks from high winds that can topple power poles or damage power lines from fallen trees. Fortunately, the Moore tornado, rated EF5, did not have a major impact on the oil and gas infrastructure in Oklahoma. The impact of earthquakes and tsunamis on energy was illustrated in Japan in 2011 with the shutdown of the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Other studies have suggested that there are areas in the United States where the energy services are highly vulnerable to major earthquakes that would disrupt electrical and gas networks for extended periods of time. Seismic upgrades to the energy infrastructure would help mitigate the impact. In 1859, a coronal mass ejection triggered a geomagnetic storm that disrupted communication wires around the world

  20. A Fourier analysis of extremal events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Yuwei

    extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

  1. Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppen, van C.S.A.; Mol, A.P.J.; Tatenhove, van J.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties requir

  2. Union Agency Lecture: Predicting and Managing Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubchenco, J.

    2011-12-01

    From tsunamis to tornadoes to hurricanes, floods, droughts, and heat waves, 2011 has been a year of extreme events reminding us of the vulnerability of the nation's communities to such events and the need to enhance our ability to anticipate and mitigate impacts of extreme events. Among its many roles, NOAA is responsible for providing critical environmental intelligence to the nation. To deliver this intelligence, we observe, monitor, and forecast environmental changes, including extreme events. The different time horizons for different types of extreme events require different observing, analytical and modeling approaches. Short-fuse events such as tornadoes, heavy rainfall, and solar storms present different challenges from those whose development can be tracked: hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, extended flooding, hypoxia, or dispersion of volcanic ash, wildfire smoke or oil following a spill. Occurrence of compound or cascading events, such as heat, drought, and poor air quality, add complexity to our ability to predict. Recent extreme events not only challenge us to improve monitoring and forecasting abilities, but also to improve capabilities to deliver credible and actionable information widely. This talk discusses some of the larger scientific, technological, and social science challenges in predicting and reducing impacts from extreme events.

  3. Extreme climatic events in a changing climate: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, M.

    2003-04-01

    While changes in the long-term mean state of climate will have many important consequences on numerous environmental, social, and economic sectors, the most significant impacts of climatic change are likely to come about from shifts in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Indeed, insurance costs resulting from extreme weather events have been steadily increasing over the last two decades, in response to both population pressures in regions that are at risk, but also because of the frequency and severity of certain forms of extremes. Regions now safe from catastrophic wind storms, heat waves, and floods could suddenly become vulnerable. The associated damage costs would consequently be extremely high. It seems appropriate, therefore, considering the environmental, human and economic costs exerted by extreme climatic events, to address the problem of whether there may be significant shifts in extremes of wind, precipitation or temperature in a changing global climate. In order to achieve these goals, the level of current scientific understanding and the availability of computational resources now enable numerical modeling techniques to be applied to this problem area. Examples will be given of particular numerical simulations of extreme events that have affected Western Europe and the alpine region in recent years. These simulations and impacts studies will be compared to observed events and trends during the 20th century, where adequate data is available to assess the manner in which certain forms of extreme events have changed, in part as a response to the global warming observed over the last 100 years.

  4. General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events

    OpenAIRE

    Brian Walker; Vincent, Jeffrey R.; Thomas Sterner; Jason Shogren; Marten Scheffer; Karl-Göran Mäler; Stephen Polasky; Kyle Meng; Geoffrey McCarney; Chuan-Zhong Li; Nils Kautsky; Hughes, Terry P.; Carl Folke; Gustav Engström; Anne-Sophie Crépin

    2012-01-01

    Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, lead...

  5. General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Walker

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.

  6. Extreme solar particle events: The worst case scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usoskin, Ilya; Kovaltsov, Gennady

    2016-04-01

    Sporadic eruptive energetic events on the Sun may occur during periods of high solar activity. Sometimes such events can be strong or even extreme posing serious hazards for the modern technology and communication dependent society. It is important to asses the worst case scenario for an extreme solar particle event and what the probability of its occurrence. The era of direct scientific exploration of the Sun is short - from few decades to a century, and yet several strong harmful events took place during that time. Can we expect even greater events? How often? What shall we prepare for? In order to answer these questions, one has to rely upon indirect methods by analyzing natural proxy archives. Here we present an overview of the history of extreme solar events in the past, from hundreds to millions of year, based on an analysis of cosmogenic isotopes in terrestrial archives (polar ice cores and tree rings) and in lunar rocks.

  7. Crop Diversiifcation in Coping with Extreme Weather Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Ji-kun; JIANG Jing; WANG Jin-xia; HOU Ling-ling

    2014-01-01

    Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversiifcation and which factors inlfuence farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and lfood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study ifnds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversiifcation. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers’ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers’ decisions on crop diversiifcation strategy, and their effects differ by farmers’ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.

  8. Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cann, K F; Thomas, D Rh; Salmon, R L; Wyn-Jones, A P; Kay, D

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

  9. Sovereign Default Analysis through Extreme Events Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile George MARICA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates contagion in international credit markets through the use of a novel jump detection technique proposed by Chan and Maheuin (2002. This econometrical methodology is preferred because it is non-linear by definition and not a subject to volatility bias. Also, the identified jumps in CDS premiums are considered as outliers positioned beyond any stochastic movement that can and is already modelled through well-known linear analysis. Though contagion is hard to define, we show that extreme discrete movements in default probabilities inferred from CDS premiums can lead to sound economic conclusions about the risk profile of sovereign nations in international bond markets. We find evidence of investor sentiment clustering for countries with unstable political regimes or that are engaged in armed conflict. Countries that have in their recent history faced currency or financial crises are less vulnerable to external unexpected shocks. First we present a brief history of sovereign defaults with an emphasis on their increased frequency and geographical reach, as financial markets become more and more integrated. We then pass to a literature review of the most important definitions for contagion, and discuss what quantitative methods are available to detect the presence of contagion. The paper continues with the details for the methodology of jump detection through non-linear modelling and its use in the field of contagion identification. In the last sections we present the estimation results for simultaneous jumps between emerging markets CDS and draw conclusions on the difference of behavior in times of extreme movement versus tranquil periods.

  10. Understanding Extreme Spanish Coastal Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, J. Javier; Esteban, M. Dolores; Silvestre, J. Manuel

    2013-04-01

    The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise by storm surge accompanying rain process on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the presentation analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market". The event was due to the meteorological phenomenon known as "gota fría" (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon affecting one or more basins on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish east to southeast inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn season there, and, as it happens, in other places around the world (East/Southeast Africa). Their occurrence, however shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes, on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons do). As a matter of fact, all of these equivalent though different phenomena may have different magnitude each time. An overview of the very main events since 11th century in the East to Southeast areas in Spain is shown in the presentation, looking for relation with climatic conditions and Climate changes on one hand, and with geomorphologic and geotechnical conditions on the other It also describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold

  11. Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patt, A.G.; Tadross, M.; Nussbaumer, P.; Asante, K.; Metzger, M.J.; Rafael, J.; Goujon, A.; Brundrit, G.

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts

  12. Predictability of extreme events in a branching diffusion model

    CERN Document Server

    Gabrielov, Andrei; Olsen, Sayaka; Zaliapin, Ilya

    2010-01-01

    We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with immigration. New elements -- observation space and observed events -- are introduced in order to formulate a prediction problem patterned after the geophysical and environmental applications. The problem consists of estimating the likelihood of occurrence of an extreme event given the observations of smaller events while the complete internal dynamics of the system is unknown. We look for premonitory patterns that emerge as an extreme event approaches; those patterns are deviations from the long-term system's averages. We have found a single control parameter that governs multiple spatio-temporal premonitory patterns. For that purpose, we derive i) complete analytic description of time- and space-dependent size distribution of particles generated by a single immigrant; ii) the...

  13. Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.P. Powell

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide, therefore, anticipating and calculating their effects on crop yields is important for topics ranging from food security to the economic viability of biomass products. Given the local nature of weather, particularly precipitation, effects are best measured at a local level. This paper analyzes weather events at the level of the farm for a specific crop, winter wheat. Once it has been established that extreme events are expected to continue occurring at historically high levels for farming locations throughout the Netherlands, the effects of those events on wheat yields are estimated while controlling for the other major input factors affecting yields. Econometric techniques are applied to an unbalanced panel data set of 334 farms for a period of up to 12 years. Analyzes show that the number of days with extreme high temperatures in Dutch wheat growing regions has significantly increased since the early 1900s, while the number of extreme low temperature events has fallen over that same period. The effects of weather events on wheat yields were found to be time specific in that the week in which an event occurred determined its effect on yields. High temperature events and precipitation events were found to significantly decrease yields.

  14. Extreme precipitation events and related weather patterns over Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    raheem Al-nassar, Ali; Sangrà, Pablo; Alarcón, Marta

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to investigate the extreme precipitation events and the associated weather phenomena in the Middle East and particularly in Iraq. For this purpose we used Baghdad daily precipitation records from the Iraqi Meteorological and Seismology Organization combined with ECMWF (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data for the period from January 2002 to December 2013. Extreme events were found statistically at the 90% percentile of the recorded precipitation, and were highly correlated with hydrological flooding in some cities of Iraq. We identified fifteen extreme precipitation events. The analysis of the corresponding weather patterns (500 hPa and 250 hPa geopotential and velocity field distribution) indicated that 5 events were related with cut off low causing the highest precipitation (180 mm), 3 events related with rex block (158 mm), 3 events related with jet streak occurrence (130 mm) and 4 events related with troughs (107 mm). . Five of these events caused flash floods and in particular one of them related with a rex block was the most dramatic heavy rain event in Iraq in 30 years. We investigated for each case the convective instability and dynamical forcing together with humidity sources. For convective instability we explored the distribution of the K index and SWEAT index. For dynamical forcing we analyzed at several levels Q vector, divergence, potential and relative vorticity advection and omega vertical velocity. Source of humidity was investigated through humidity and convergence of specific humidity distribution. One triggering factor of all the events is the advection and convergence of humidity from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Therefore a necessary condition for extreme precipitation in Iraq is the advection and convergence of humidity from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Our preliminary analysis also indicates that extreme precipitation events are primary dynamical forced playing convective instability a secondary role.

  15. Geophysical Hazards and Preventive Disaster Management of Extreme Natural Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2007-12-01

    Geophysical hazard is potentially damaging natural event and/or phenomenon, which may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption, or environmental degradation. Extreme natural hazards are a key manifestation of the complex hierarchical nonlinear Earth system. An understanding, accurate modeling and forecasting of the extreme hazards are most important scientific challenges. Several recent extreme natural events (e.g., 2004 Great Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami and the 2005 violent Katrina hurricane) demonstrated strong coupling between solid Earth and ocean, and ocean and atmosphere. These events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of a weak preventive disaster management. The less often natural events occur (and the extreme events are rare by definition), the more often the disaster managers postpone the preparedness to the events. The tendency to reduce the funding for preventive disaster management of natural catastrophes is seldom follows the rules of responsible stewardship for future generations neither in developing countries nor in highly developed economies where it must be considered next to malfeasance. Protecting human life and property against earthquake disasters requires an uninterrupted chain of tasks: from (i) understanding of physics of the events, analysis and monitoring, through (ii) interpretation, modeling, hazard assessment, and prediction, to (iii) public awareness, preparedness, and preventive disaster management.

  16. Extreme events in gross primary production: a characterization across continents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zscheischler

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate extremes can affect the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, for instance via a reduction of the photosynthetic capacity or alterations of respiratory processes. Yet the dominant regional and seasonal effects of hydrometeorological extremes are still not well documented. Here we quantify and characterize the role of large spatiotemporal extreme events in gross primary production (GPP as triggers of continental anomalies. We also investigate seasonal dynamics of extreme impacts on continental GPP anomalies. We find that the 50 largest positive (increase in uptake and negative extremes (decrease in uptake on each continent can explain most of the continental variation in GPP, which is in line with previous results obtained at the global scale. We show that negative extremes are larger than positive ones and demonstrate that this asymmetry is particularly strong in South America and Europe. Most extremes in GPP start in early summer. Our analysis indicates that the overall impacts and the spatial extents of GPP extremes are power law distributed with exponents that vary little across continents. Moreover, we show that on all continents and for all data sets the spatial extents play a more important role than durations or maximal GPP anomaly when it comes to the overall impact of GPP extremes. An analysis of possible causes implies that across continents most extremes in GPP can best be explained by water scarcity rather than by extreme temperatures. However, for Europe, South America and Oceania we identify also fire as an important driver. Our findings are consistent with remote sensing products. An independent validation against a literature survey on specific extreme events supports our results to a large extent.

  17. Laws of small numbers extremes and rare events

    CERN Document Server

    Falk, Michael; Hüsler, Jürg

    2004-01-01

    Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book in 1994, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have enjoyed an enormous and still increasing interest. The intention of the book is to give a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. This characteristic of the book was strengthened in the second edition by incorporating various new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, which has been added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory. Particularly notable is a new spectral decomposition of multivariate distributions in univariate ones which makes multivariate questions more accessible in theory and practice. One of the most innovative and fruitful topics during the last decades was the introduction of generalized Pareto distributions in the univariate extreme value theory. Such a statistical modelling of extremes is now systematically developed in the multivariate fram...

  18. Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, S.; Prabhat; Byna, S.; Gu, J.; Collins, W. D.; Wehner, M. F.

    2015-11-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States - and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076-2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981-2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.

  19. The Integrated periodogram of a dependent extremal event sequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the asymptotic properties of the integrated periodogram calculated from a sequence of indicator functions of dependent extremal events. An event in Euclidean space is extreme if it occurs far away from the origin. We use a regular variation condition on the underlying stationary.......i.d. case a Brownian bridge appears. In the general case, we propose a stationary bootstrap procedure for approximating the distribution of the limiting process. The developed theory can be used to construct classical goodness-of-fit tests such as the Grenander–Rosenblatt and Cramér–von Mises tests which...

  20. What is the right way to talk about extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, A. H.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events draw the attention of the public. By demonstrating the vulnerability of human society to climate, extreme events can cause nonscientists -government leaders as well as the broader population - to take the danger posed by anthropogenic global warming more seriously than they otherwise might. An extreme event that draws media attention can become a 'teachable moment'. But extreme events are difficult to talk about in a way that honors both the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying science. No single event can be attributed to climate change, and some types of events are not even clearly influenced by it (or not in any ways our science can yet demonstrate). Strong, media-friendly statements that closely connect specific events to climate - designed to make best use of the moment's teachability - can easily overstate the case. This will raise the hackles of one's colleagues, at a minimum, and at worst, may damage the credibility of the field more broadly. Yet talking too much about the uncertainties runs the risk of understating the basic truth that global warming is real and dangerous, and may lend inadvertent support to anti-scientific denialism. I will discuss this tension in the context of my own experiences in the media after 'Superstorm' Sandy. I will address arguments I have heard, from social scientists and media consultants, to the effect that climate scientists should adopt communications strategies that lead to stronger, more media-friendly statements, and learn to suppress the tendency, bred into us during our scientific training, to emphasize the uncertainties.

  1. Extreme Storm Event Assessments for Nuclear Facilities and Dam Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Nicholson, T. J.; Prasad, R.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme storm events over the last 35 years are being assessed to evaluate flood estimates for safety assessments of dams, nuclear power plants, and other high-hazard structures in the U.S. The current storm rainfall design standard for evaluating the flood potential at dams and non-coastal nuclear power plants is the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). PMP methods and estimates are published in the National Weather Service generalized hydrometeorological reports (HMRs). A new Federal Interagency cooperative effort is reviewing hydrometeorologic data from large storms which have occurred in the last 20 to 40 years and were not included in the database used in the development of many of the HMRs. Extreme storm data, such as the January 1996 storm in Pennsylvania, June 2008 Iowa storms, and Hurricanes Andrew (1992), Floyd (1999), Isabel (2003), Katrina (2005), need to be systematically assembled and analyzed for use in these regional extreme storm studies. Storm maximization, transposition, envelopment, and depth-area duration procedures will incorporate recent advances in hydrometeorology, including radar precipitation data and stochastic storm techniques. We describe new cooperative efforts to develop a database of extreme storms and to examine the potential impacts of recent extreme storms on PMP estimates. These efforts will be coordinated with Federal agencies, universities, and the private sector through an Extreme Storm Events Work Group under the Federal Subcommittee on Hydrology. This work group is chartered to coordinate studies and develop databases for reviewing and improving methodologies and data collection techniques used to estimate design precipitation up to and including the PMP. The initial effort focuses on collecting and reviewing extreme storm event data in the Southeastern U.S. that have occurred since Tropical Storm Agnes (1972). Uncertainties and exceedance probability estimates of PMP are being explored. Potential effects of climate

  2. Exploring the causes of rare extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

    2015-04-01

    Whereas trends of precipitation changes in general are disparate, an increase of extreme intensities of short precipitation events (daily to sub-hourly scale) with increasing temperatures seems unambiguous (e.g. Trenberth et al., Clim. Res. 47, 123-138, 2011; Berg et al., Nat. Clim. Change 13, 181-185, 2013; Kendon et al., Nat. Clim. Change 4, 570-576, 2014). In probability density functions (PDFs) of observed precipitation intensities that are frequently used in science and practice, high magnitude ("extreme") low frequency ("rare") precipitation events naturally appear at the tails of PDFs. Due to the factual data scarcity, rare extreme events ("REEs") are difficult to come by with statistical analyses. Amongst studies of extreme precipitation, statistical work nevertheless makes a major contribution to the research field. Usually as a first step, a threshold is defined to classify extreme events out of a sample (statistical extreme events, "SEEs"), where methods are affected by the sample size. Such thresholds can be described user-defined or constructed. Subsequently, a PDF is sought, fit and applied (e.g. Yilmaz et al., Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 4065-4076, 2014;, Papalexiou et al., Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 851-862, 2013). While these studies respond to the needs of engeneering practice in e.g. infrastructure design, or trend analysis of precipitation in climate studies, they a) have to ignore REEs because of practical or statistical/data limitations (i.e. left out as "residual risk") and b) tell us little about the underlying processes of the climate and weather system causing REEs. We define REEs in contrast to SEEs as to be of such occurrence that they cannot be sufficiently described nor predicted by means of a regular or fat-tailed PDF. We introduce a working hypothesis assuming that REEs are conditioned and caused by a conjunction of specific circumstances on different scales. We differentiate spatio-temporal circumstances of large

  3. Methodology for assessing probability of extreme hydrologic events coincidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prohaska Stevan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the presented research is improvement of methodology for probability calculation of coinciding occurrence of historic floods and droughts in the same year. The original procedure was developed in order to determine the occurrence probability of such an extreme historic event. There are two phases in calculation procedure for assessment of both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year. In the first phase outliers are detected as indicators of extreme events, their return periods are calculated and series' statistics adjusted. In the second phase conditional probabilities are calculated: empirical points are plotted, and both extreme drought and flood occurrence probability in the same year is assessed based on the plot. Outlier detection is performed for the territory of Serbia. Results are shown as maps of regions (basins prone to floods, hydrologic drought, or both. Step-by-step numeric example is given for assessing conditional probability of occurrence of flood and drought for GS Raska on the river Raska. Results of assessment of conditional probability in two more cases are given for combination of extreme flood and 30 day minimum flow.

  4. Temporal Trends of Discrete Extreme Events - A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmat, S. N.; Jayasuriya, N.; Bhuiyan, M.; Adnan, M. S.

    2016-07-01

    Investigating trends in discrete events is essential for the study of changing patterns of extreme events. Temporal trends in the inter-arrival times of occurrence of drought events were examined for 21 selected stations across Victoria, Australia. In the present study, the Standardize Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied for 12-month time scale to identify drought. A drought event here is defined as a period in which the SPI is continuously negative and reaching a value of -1.0 or less. Often, nonparametric tests are commonly used to test for trends including in discrete events. However, discrete events are not constant because of the presence of zero values or non-normality of data. The methodology applies to long-term records of event counts and is based on the stochastic concepts of Poisson process and standard linear regression. Overall, of the 21 stations, 15 showed statistically significant increasing frequency indicates those events are becoming more frequent. Only one station gave insignificant result. The remaining 5 stations showed the time between events was significantly increasing designates droughts are becoming less frequent.

  5. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.

    2012-04-01

    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  6. Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egidijus Rimkus

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania. Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37% were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27% during heavy precipitation events. Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22% in Lithuania.

  7. Tackling extremes: Challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, Liam; Van de Pol, M.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies – though few on animals – suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. However, ecological research on the impacts of ECEs has been limited b

  8. High resolution modelling of extreme precipitation events in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemerink, Martijn; Volp, Nicolette; Schuurmans, Wytze; Deckers, Dave

    2015-04-01

    The present day society needs to adjust to the effects of climate change. More extreme weather conditions are expected, which can lead to longer periods of drought, but also to more extreme precipitation events. Urban water systems are not designed for such extreme events. Most sewer systems are not able to drain the excessive storm water, causing urban flooding. This leads to high economic damage. In order to take appropriate measures against extreme urban storms, detailed knowledge about the behaviour of the urban water system above and below the streets is required. To investigate the behaviour of urban water systems during extreme precipitation events new assessment tools are necessary. These tools should provide a detailed and integral description of the flow in the full domain of overland runoff, sewer flow, surface water flow and groundwater flow. We developed a new assessment tool, called 3Di, which provides detailed insight in the urban water system. This tool is based on a new numerical methodology that can accurately deal with the interaction between overland runoff, sewer flow and surface water flow. A one-dimensional model for the sewer system and open channel flow is fully coupled to a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that simulates the overland flow. The tool uses a subgrid-based approach in order to take high resolution information of the sewer system and of the terrain into account [1, 2]. The combination of using the high resolution information and the subgrid based approach results in an accurate and efficient modelling tool. It is now possible to simulate entire urban water systems using extreme high resolution (0.5m x 0.5m) terrain data in combination with a detailed sewer and surface water network representation. The new tool has been tested in several Dutch cities, such as Rotterdam, Amsterdam and The Hague. We will present the results of an extreme precipitation event in the city of Schiedam (The Netherlands). This city deals with

  9. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  10. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  11. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  12. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  13. Reliability of structural systems subjected to extreme forcing events

    CERN Document Server

    Joo, Han-Kyul; Sapsis, Themistoklis P

    2016-01-01

    We characterize the complex, heavy-tailed probability distribution functions (pdf) describing the response and its local extrema for structural systems subjected to random forcing that includes extreme events. Our approach is based on the recent probabilistic decomposition-synthesis technique in, where we decouple rare events regimes from the background fluctuations. The result of the analysis has the form of a semi-analytical approximation formula for the pdf of the response (displacement, velocity, and acceleration) and the pdf of the local extrema. For special limiting cases (lightly damped or heavily damped systems) our analysis provides fully analytical approximations. We also demonstrate how the method can be applied to high dimensional structural systems through a two-degrees-of-freedom structural system undergoing rare events due to intermittent forcing. The derived formulas can be evaluated with very small computational cost and are shown to accurately capture the complicated heavy-tailed and asymmet...

  14. Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

    2016-04-01

    With the latest results on expected future increase in air temperature and precipitation changes reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climate robustness of important infrastructure is of raising concern in Norway, as well as in the rest of Europe. Economic consequences of natural disasters have increased considerably since 1950. In addition to the effect of demographic changes such as population growth, urbanization and more and more concentration of valuable assets, this increase is also related to an augmenting frequency of extreme events, such as storms, flooding, drought, and landslides. This change is also observable in Norway, where the increased frequency of strong precipitation has led to frequent flooding and landslide events during the last 20 years. A number of studies show that climate change causes an increase in both frequency and intensity of several types of extreme weather, especially when it comes to precipitation. Such extreme weather events greatly affect the transport infrastructure, with numerous and long closures of roads and railroads, in addition to damage and repair costs. Frequent closures of railroad and roads lead to delay or failure in delivery of goods, which again may lead to a loss of customers and/or - eventually - markets. Much of the Norwegian transport infrastructure is more than 50 years old and therefore not adequately dimensioned, even for present climatic conditions. In order to assess these problems and challenges posed to the Norwegian transport infrastructure from present-day and future extreme weather events, the project "Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk)" was performed under the research Council of Norway program 'NORKLIMA', between 2009 and 2013. The main results of the project are: - Moderate to strong precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense in Norway over the last 50 years, and this trend continues throughout the 21st

  15. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  16. Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Daniel; Davini, Paolo; Harvey, Ben; Massey, Neil; Haustein, Karsten; Woollings, Tim; Jones, Richard; Otto, Fredi; Guillod, Benoit; Sparrow, Sarah; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

    2016-08-01

    Atmospheric modes of variability relevant for extreme temperature and precipitation events are evaluated in models currently being used for extreme event attribution. A 100 member initial condition ensemble of the global circulation model HadAM3P is compared with both the multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the CMIP5 atmosphere-only counterparts (AMIP5). The use of HadAM3P allows for huge ensembles to be computed relatively fast, thereby providing unique insights into the dynamics of extremes. The analysis focuses on mid Northern Latitudes (primarily Europe) during winter, and is compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. The tri-modal Atlantic eddy-driven jet distribution is remarkably well captured in HadAM3P, but not so in the CMIP5 or AMIP5 multi-model mean, although individual models fare better. The well known underestimation of blocking in the Atlantic region is apparent in CMIP5 and AMIP5, and also, to a lesser extent, in HadAM3P. Pacific blocking features are well produced in all modeling initiatives. Blocking duration is biased towards models reproducing too many short-lived events in all three modelling systems. Associated storm tracks are too zonal over the Atlantic in the CMIP5 and AMIP5 ensembles, but better simulated in HadAM3P with the exception of being too weak over Western Europe. In all cases, the CMIP5 and AMIP5 performances were almost identical, suggesting that the biases in atmospheric modes considered here are not strongly coupled to SSTs, and perhaps other model characteristics such as resolution are more important. For event attribution studies, it is recommended that rather than taking statistics over the entire CMIP5 or AMIP5 available models, only models capable of producing the relevant dynamical phenomena be employed.

  17. Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

    2010-12-01

    The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

  18. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-06-01

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like.

  19. Clustering of extreme events created by multiple correlated maxima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo, Davide; Freitas, Ana Cristina Moreira; Freitas, Jorge Milhazes; Rodrigues, Fagner B.

    2016-02-01

    We consider stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating an observable function along the orbits of the system. The novelty is that we will consider observables achieving a global maximum value (possible infinite) at multiple points with special emphasis for the case where these maximal points are correlated or bound by belonging to the same orbit of a certain chosen point. These multiple correlated maxima can be seen as a new mechanism creating clustering of extreme observations, i.e., the occurrence of several extreme observations concentrated in the time frame. We recall that clustering was intimately connected with periodicity when the maximum was achieved at a single point. We will study this mechanism for creating clustering and will address the existence of limiting Extreme Value Laws, the repercussions on the value of the Extremal Index, the impact on the limit of Rare Events Points Processes, the influence on clustering patterns and the competition of domains of attraction. We also consider briefly and for comparison purposes multiple uncorrelated maxima. The systems considered include expanding maps of the interval such as Rychlik maps but also maps with an indifferent fixed point such as Manneville-Pomeau maps.

  20. Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

  1. Probabilistic forecast of daily areal precipitation focusing on extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bliefernicht, J.; Bárdossy, A.

    2007-04-01

    A dynamical downscaling scheme is usually used to provide a short range flood forecasting system with high-resolved precipitation fields. Unfortunately, a single forecast of this scheme has a high uncertainty concerning intensity and location especially during extreme events. Alternatively, statistical downscaling techniques like the analogue method can be used which can supply a probabilistic forecasts. However, the performance of the analogue method is affected by the similarity criterion, which is used to identify similar weather situations. To investigate this issue in this work, three different similarity measures are tested: the euclidean distance (1), the Pearson correlation (2) and a combination of both measures (3). The predictor variables are geopotential height at 1000 and 700 hPa-level and specific humidity fluxes at 700 hPa-level derived from the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis project. The study is performed for three mesoscale catchments located in the Rhine basin in Germany. It is validated by a jackknife method for a period of 44 years (1958-2001). The ranked probability skill score, the Brier Skill score, the Heidke skill score and the confidence interval of the Cramer association coefficient are calculated to evaluate the system for extreme events. The results show that the combined similarity measure yields the best results in predicting extreme events. However, the confidence interval of the Cramer coefficient indicates that this improvement is only significant compared to the Pearson correlation but not for the euclidean distance. Furthermore, the performance of the presented forecasting system is very low during the summer and new predictors have to be tested to overcome this problem.

  2. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin

    2011-11-01

    This article reviews Bayesian analysis methods applied to extreme climatic data. We particularly focus on applications to three different problems related to extreme climatic events including detection of abrupt regime shifts, clustering tropical cyclone tracks, and statistical forecasting for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. For identifying potential change points in an extreme event count series, a hierarchical Bayesian framework involving three layers - data, parameter, and hypothesis - is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time. For the data layer, a Poisson process with a gamma distributed rate is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, multiple candidate hypotheses with different change-points are considered. To calculate the posterior probability for each hypothesis and its associated parameters we developed an exact analytical formula, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and a more sophisticated reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. The algorithms are applied to several rare event series: the annual tropical cyclone or typhoon counts over the central, eastern, and western North Pacific; the annual extremely heavy rainfall event counts at Manoa, Hawaii; and the annual heat wave frequency in France. Using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a Bayesian clustering method built on a mixture Gaussian model is applied to objectively classify historical, spaghetti-like tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2007) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea into eight distinct track types. A regression based approach to forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in a region is developed. Specifically, by adopting large-scale environmental conditions prior to the tropical cyclone season, a Poisson regression model is built for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone counts, and a probit regression model is alternatively developed toward a binary classification problem. With a non

  3. Simulating an Extreme Wind Event in a Topographically Complex Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennard, Christopher

    2014-07-01

    Complex topography modifies local weather characteristics such as air temperature, rainfall and airflow within a larger regional extent. The Cape Peninsula around Cape Town, South Africa, is a complex topographical feature responsible for the modification of rainfall and wind fields largely downstream of the Peninsula. During the passage of a cold front on 2 October 2002, an extreme wind event associated with tornado-like damage occurred in the suburb of Manenberg, however synoptic conditions did not indicate convective activity typically associated with a tornado. A numerical regional climate model was operated at very high horizontal resolution (500 m) to investigate the dynamics of the event. The model simulated an interaction between the topography of the peninsula and an airflow direction change associated with the passage of the cold front. A small region of cyclonic circulation was simulated over Manenberg that was embedded in an area of negative vorticity and a leeward gravity wave. The feature lasted 14 min and moved in a north to south direction. Vertically, it was not evident above 220 m. The model assessment describes this event as a shallow but intense cyclonic vortex generated in the lee of the peninsula through an interaction between the peninsula and a change in wind direction as the cold front made landfall. The model did not simulate wind speeds associated with the observed damage suggesting that the horizontal grid resolution ought to be at the scale of the event to more completely understand such microscale airflow phenomena.

  4. The 1859 space weather event revisited: limits of extreme activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cliver Edward W.

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The solar flare on 1 September 1859 and its associated geomagnetic storm remain the standard for an extreme solar-terrestrial event. The most recent estimates of the flare soft X-ray (SXR peak intensity and Dst magnetic storm index for this event are: SXR class = X45 (±5 (vs. X35 (±5 for the 4 November 2003 flare and minimum Dst = −900 (+50, −150 nT (vs. −825 to −900 nT for the great storm of May 1921. We have no direct evidence of an associated solar energetic proton (SEP event but a correlation between >30 MeV SEP fluence (F30 and flare size based on modern data yields a best guess F30 value of ~1.1 × 1010 pr cm−2 (with the ±1σ uncertainty spanning a range from ~109–1011 pr cm−2 for a composite (multi-flare plus shock 1859 event. This value is approximately twice that of estimates/measurements – ranging from ~5–7 × 109 pr cm−2 – for the largest SEP episodes (July 1959, November 1960, August 1972 in the modern era.

  5. Recent Changes of Some Observed Climate Extreme Events in Kano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imole Ezekiel Gbode

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI. For the entire period, the results show a warming trend, an increased number of cool nights, more warm days, and a strong increase in the number of warm spells. The rainfall indices show a slight increase in annual total rainfall, a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days, and a significant increase in the number of extremely wet days. Such changes in climate may result in an increasing demand for domestic energy for cooling and a higher evaporation rate from water bodies and irrigated crop. These findings may give some guidance to politicians and planners in how to best cope with these extreme weather and climate events.

  6. Assessing Hydrological Extreme Events with Geospatial Data and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivoni, Enrique R.; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Nardi, Fernando; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Castelli, Fabio; Bras, Rafael L.; Ubertini, Lucio

    2004-09-01

    Prediction of river basin hydrological response to extreme meteorological events is a primary concern in areas with frequent flooding, landslides, and debris flows. Natural hydrogeological disasters in many regions lead to extensive property damage, impact on societal activities, and loss of life. Hydrologists have a long history of assessing and predicting hydrologic hazards through the combined use of field observations, monitoring networks, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Nevertheless, the integration of field data and computer models has yet to result in prediction systems that capture space-time interactions between meteorological forcing, land surface characteristics, and the internal hydrological response in river basins. Capabilities for assessing hydrologic extreme events are greatly enhanced via the use of geospatial data sets describing watershed properties such as topography, channel structure, soils, vegetation, and geological features. Recent advances in managing, processing, and visualizing cartographic data with geographic information systems (GIS) have enabled their direct use in spatially distributed hydrological models. In a distributed model application, geospatial data sets can be used to establish the model domain, specify boundary and initial conditions, determine the spatial variation of parameter values, and provide the spatial model forcing. By representing a watershed through a set of discrete elements, distributed models simulate water, energy, and mass transport in a landscape and provide estimates of the spatial pattern of hydrologic states, fluxes, and pathways.

  7. Top-side ionosphere response to extreme solar events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Dmitriev

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Strong X-flares and solar energetic particle (SEP fluxes are considered as sources of topside ionospheric disturbances observed by the ROCSAT-1/IPEI instrument during the Bastille Day event on 14 July 2000 and the Halloween event on 28 October–4 November 2003. It was found that within a prestorm period in the dayside ionosphere at altitudes of ~600 km the ion density increased up to ~80% in response to flare-associated enhancements of the solar X-ray emission. Ionospheric response to the SEP events was revealed both at sunlit and nightside hemispheres, where the ion density increased up to ~40% and 100%, respectively. We did not find any prominent response of the ion temperature to the X-ray and SEP enhancements. The largest X-ray and SEP impacts were found for the X17 solar flare on 28 October 2003, which was characterized by the most intense fluxes of solar EUV (Tsurutani et al., 2005 and relativistic solar particles (Veselovsky et al., 2004. Solar events on 14 July 2000 and 29 October 2003 demonstrate weaker impacts with respect to their X-ray and SEP intensities. The weakest ionospheric response is observed for the limb X28 solar flare on 4 November 2003. The topside ionosphere response to the extreme solar events is interpreted in terms of the short-duration impact of the solar electromagnetic radiation and the long-lasting impact of the SEP.

  8. Modern sedimentation and extreme event in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Huang; Su, Chih-Chieh

    2016-04-01

    The South China Sea is the largest marginal sea of the northwest Pacific. It is situated at the plate boundary of the Eurasian, Philippine Sea, and Indian plates and also on the North Western Pacific corridor of typhoons. The unique tectonic and climatic environment makes it has to face the potential of seafloor destructions, like submarine landslides and slumps, and high sediment discharges which induced by typhoon from Philippine. In this study, we analysis the sediment properties of modern extreme event records in cores and attempt to evaluate the history of extreme events in the South China Sea. Twelve gravity cores were collected in the central South China Sea basin and around Taiping island by using R/V Ocean Research 1 from 2014 to 2015 and a series of analysis including multi-sensor core logger, XRF core scanner (Itrax), core surface images, X-radiographs, bulk density, grain size, Pb-210 chronology and X-ray diffractometer were conducted in this study. On core surface images, an obvious brownish oxidized layer exist in core top with higher Pb-210 activity beneath this oxidized layer, and we speculate this layer is caused by nature hazard. According to the sampling time, we conjecture the oxidized layer might formed by typhoon Haiyan in 2013. In addition, the Itrax data shows high manganese content only exist in this layer which might related to the modern industrial pollution delivered by typhoon induced flooding from Philippine. The sedimentation rate of the non-event years in these cores which derived from Pb-210 chronology method is about 0.02 ~0.03 cm/yr. On contrary, the event layer caused by Haiyan with a recorded maximum 87cm deposits in the South China Sea. This study aims to characterize the typhoon induced deposits in the turbidite layer and use it to identify whether the other event layers recorded in these cores were related to typhoon activities and to reconstruct the strong tropical cyclone history in the western Pacific.

  9. Coastal evacuations by fish during extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Helen; Secor, David H.

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events is predicted to occur as a result of climate change. In coastal ecosystems, hurricanes and flooding can cause dramatic changes in water quality resulting in large mortality events in estuarine fauna. Facultative migration behaviors represent a key adaptation by which animals can evacuate ecological catastrophes, but remain poorly studied in marine systems. Here we identify coastal evacuations by otherwise resident riverine striped bass in the Hudson River Estuary, New York, USA, caused by an intense period of tropical storms in autumn 2011. These storms produced record rainfall and high water discharges into the Hudson River Estuary that increased the water level and reduced the water temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen levels. Striped bass moved out of the estuary, exhibiting novel migration behaviours, that may have been in response to the strong flow and unsuitable conditions. In the months following the storms, some fish demonstrated exploratory trips back to the estuary, which may have been to assess the conditions before returning for the remainder of the winter. Behavioural adaptions to weather events by striped bass and other coastal fishes will depend on maintenance of key population segments and unimpeded evacuation routes. PMID:27455872

  10. Preparing for Extreme Heat Events: Practices in Identifying Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Sabrina; Madrigano, Jaime; Zinsmeister, Emma

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme heat events. These events affect cities in increasingly abrupt and catastrophic ways; yet, many of the deaths caused by exposure to heat have gone unnoticed or are inaccurately identified, resulting in a lack of urgency in addressing this issue. We aim to address this under-identification of deaths from heat waves in order to better assess heat risk. We investigated death records in New York City from 2010 to 2012 to identify characteristics that vary between deaths officially categorized as caused by heat wave exposure (oHDs) and those possibly caused by heat (pHDs). We found that oHDs were more often black and of a younger age than would typically be expected. We also found that there was a lack of evidence to substantiate that an oHD had occurred, using the NYC official criteria. We conclude that deaths from heat waves are not being accurately recorded, leading to a mis-estimation. Training regarding the collection and interpretation of evidence may improve preparedness for heat events. PMID:27081884

  11. Coastal evacuations by fish during extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Helen; Secor, David H

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events is predicted to occur as a result of climate change. In coastal ecosystems, hurricanes and flooding can cause dramatic changes in water quality resulting in large mortality events in estuarine fauna. Facultative migration behaviors represent a key adaptation by which animals can evacuate ecological catastrophes, but remain poorly studied in marine systems. Here we identify coastal evacuations by otherwise resident riverine striped bass in the Hudson River Estuary, New York, USA, caused by an intense period of tropical storms in autumn 2011. These storms produced record rainfall and high water discharges into the Hudson River Estuary that increased the water level and reduced the water temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen levels. Striped bass moved out of the estuary, exhibiting novel migration behaviours, that may have been in response to the strong flow and unsuitable conditions. In the months following the storms, some fish demonstrated exploratory trips back to the estuary, which may have been to assess the conditions before returning for the remainder of the winter. Behavioural adaptions to weather events by striped bass and other coastal fishes will depend on maintenance of key population segments and unimpeded evacuation routes. PMID:27455872

  12. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  13. Management of the Extreme Events: Countering International Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Cristian Barna

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available After the terrorism attacks of September 11, 2001, there is recognition by both the public and private sectors that one needs to rethink our strategy for dealing with these low probability but extreme consequence events. September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States raised numerous questions related to counter-terrorism, foreign policy, as well as national security in the United States and abroad. They also raised the fundamental question of who should pay for losses due to terrorism.The question of who should pay for terrorism risk prevention and sustainable coverage within a country is likely to be seen first as a matter of collective responsibility that each country has to consider – a societal choice

  14. Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Skill at Reproducing Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinnis, S. A.; Tye, M. R.; Nychka, D. W.; Mearns, L. O.

    2015-12-01

    Climate model outputs usually have much coarser spatial resolution than is needed by impacts models. Although higher resolution can be achieved using regional climate models for dynamical downscaling, further downscaling is often required. The final resolution gap is often closed with a combination of spatial interpolation and bias correction, which constitutes a form of statistical downscaling. We use this technique to downscale regional climate model data and evaluate its skill in reproducing extreme events. We downscale output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset from its native 50-km spatial resolution to the 4-km resolution of University of Idaho's METDATA gridded surface meterological dataset, which derives from the PRISM and NLDAS-2 observational datasets. We operate on the major variables used in impacts analysis at a daily timescale: daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and winds. To interpolate the data, we use the patch recovery method from the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) regridding package. We then bias correct the data using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping (KDDM), which has been shown to exhibit superior overall performance across multiple metrics. Finally, we evaluate the skill of this technique in reproducing extreme events by comparing raw and downscaled output with meterological station data in different bioclimatic regions according to the the skill scores defined by Perkins et al in 2013 for evaluation of AR4 climate models. We also investigate techniques for improving bias correction of values in the tails of the distributions. These techniques include binned kernel density estimation, logspline kernel density estimation, and transfer functions constructed by fitting the tails with a generalized pareto distribution.

  15. Impacts of Land Use Management in Extreme Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Greg; Ewen, John; Geris, Josie; Enda O'Connell, P.

    2010-05-01

    It is increasingly recognised internationally that the management of land and water is strongly interdependent, and that integrated management approaches are needed. There is evidence that modern land management practices have caused an increase in flood risk in rural upland areas, so there is the potential to use land management control as a tool in flood risk mitigation programmes. Flooding from historical extreme rainfall events must be considered when designing mitigation programmes, especially if the designs have to take into account the possibility that such extreme events will become more frequent in the future. The largest 90 minute rainfall ever recorded in the UK was 117mm, in 1967 in the Dunsop catchment, NW England (25 km^2). Extensive land management changes have recently been made in the catchment, including peat restoration, tree planting and reductions in sheep stocking density, and the analysis of the flooding in 1967 was undertaken as part of a wider study on the potential impact of the recent changes. An important part of the work on the 1967 flood was the separation of the various roles played in flood generation; particularly the roles played by runoff generation from the hillslopes and flow though the drainage/river network. A novel approach has been developed, for role separation, which involves tracking the downstream propagation of information through the catchment. This is achieved using reverse algorithmic differentiation (adjoint modelling) of a gridded catchment model that includes a detailed hydraulic model for the flow drainage/river network. Results will be shown for how various information and sensitivities vary spatially across the catchment, allowing conclusions to be drawn about the potential for using land management control in flood risk mitigation programmes.

  16. Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.

    2016-09-01

    Located in an arid and semi-arid region of the world, Iran has experienced many extreme flood and drought events in the last and current century. The present study aims to assess the changes in Iran's flood magnitude and drought severity for 1950-2010, with some time span variation in some stations. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend was first applied to assess changes in flood and drought severity data. In addition, to consider the effect of serial correlation, two Pre-Whitening Trend (PWT) tests were also applied. It was observed that the number of stations with statistically significant trends has increased after applying PWT tests. Both increasing and decreasing trends were observed for drought severity and flood magnitude in different climate regions and major basins of Iran using these tests. The increase in flood magnitude and drought severity can be attributed partly to land use changes, an annual rainfall negative trend, a maximum rainfall increasing trend, and inappropriate water resources management policies. The paper indicates a critical situation related to extreme climate change in Iran and the increasing risk of environmental changes in the 21st century.

  17. A summary of extreme scattering events and a descriptive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiedler, R.; Dennison, B.; Johnston, K. J.; Waltman, E. B.; Simon, R. S.

    1994-08-01

    An ongoing monitoring program of compact extragalactic radio sources over the past 11 years has revealed many instances of unusual variations that cannot be explained using the standard models for intrinsic variability or normal refractive interstellar scintillation. The observations included simultaneous daily measurements at 2.695 and 8.085 GHz of 40 to 150 sources using the Green Bank interferometer over the period 1979 to 1989. Approximately 330 sources were also monitored with the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) 300 foot radio telescope at 3.25 and 4.675 GHz over the 6 month period 1987 December to 1988 May. In total, 594 source-years of observations have been obtained, of which 4.8 yr constitutes the total time span of unusual variability. The unusual variations, denoted as extreme scattering events (ESEs), are summarized here. The most striking property of ESEs is their frequency dependence, in which departures from the quiescent flux density (by as much as 50% at 2.7 GHz) have no counterpart at 8.1 GHz. The single exception occurred in the 8.1 GHz light curve of 0954+658, which showed spiky variations during the 2.7 GHz event. To date,10 ESEs have been tentatively identified in the 2.7 GHz light curves of nine quasars. These ESEs appear to occur preferentially near loops in the Galactic foreground brightness distribution. A simple model based on diffraction or refraction through Galactic regions of unusually high electron density turbulence is presented.

  18. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  19. Developing a concept of social-ecological-technological systems to characterize resilience of urban areas and infrastructure to extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chester, M.; Grimm, N. B.; Redman, C.; Miller, T.; McPherson, T.; Munoz-Erickson, T.; Chandler, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is widely considered one of the greatest challenges to global sustainability, with extreme events being the most immediate way that people experience this phenomenon. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to these events given their location, concentration of people, and increasingly complex and interdependent infrastructure. We are developing a conceptual framework for urban social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) that will allow researchers and practitioners to assess how infrastructure can be resilient, provide ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit urban populations. The framework integrates the three domains of social and equity issues, environmental quality and protection, and technical/engineering aspects, to form a concept of infrastructure that occurs at the intersection of the domains. Examples show how the more common socioecological systems and socially sensitive engineering approaches that fail to incorporate the third dimension may elevate vulnerability to climate-related disaster. The SETS conceptual framework bridges currently siloed social science, environmental science, and engineering approaches to significantly advance research into the structure, function, and emergent properties of SETS. Extreme events like heat waves in Phoenix; coastal and urban flooding in the wake of superstorm Sandy and following hurricanes in Miami, FL; drought in Mexico; and urban flooding in Baltimore, Portland, San Juan PR, Syracuse, and Valdivia, Chile provide examples of the impacts of and vulnerability to extreme events that demand a new approach. The infrastructure of the future must be resilient, leverage ecosystem services, improve social well being, and exploit new technologies in ways that benefit all segments of urban populations and are appropriate to the particular urban contexts. These contexts are defined not only by the biophysical environment but also by culture and

  20. Regional Frequency Analysis of extreme rainfall events, Tuscany (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, E.; Chiarello, V.; Rossi, G.

    2014-12-01

    The assessment of extreme hydrological events at sites characterized by short time series or where no data record exists has been mainly obtained by regional models. Regional frequency analysis based on the index variable procedure is implemented here to describe the annual maximum of rainfall depth of short durations in Tuscany region. The probability distribution TCEV - Two Component Extreme Value is used in the frame of the procedure for the parameters estimation based on a three levels hierarchical approach. The methodology deal with the delineation of homogeneous regions, the identification of a robust regional frequency distribution and the assessment of the scale factor, i.e. the index rainfall. The data set includes the annual maximum of daily rainfall of 351 gauge stations with at least 30 years of records, in the period 1916 - 2012, and the extreme rainfalls of short duration, 1 hour and 3, 6, 12, 24 hours. Different subdivisions hypotheses have been verified. A four regions subdivision, coincident with four subregions, which takes into account the orography, the geomorphological and climatic peculiarities of the Tuscany region, has been adopted. Particularly, for testing the regional homogeneity, the cumulate frequency distributions of the observed skewness and variation coefficients of the recorded times series, are compared with the theoretical frequency distribution obtained through a Monte Carlo technique. The related L-skewness and L-variation coefficients are also examined. The application of the Student t -test and the Wilcoxon test for the mean, as well as the χ2 was also performed. Further tests of subdivision hypotheses have been made through the application of discordancy D and heterogeneity H tests and the analysis of the observed and the theoretical TCEV model growth curves. For each region the daily rainfall growth curve has been estimated. The growth curves for the hourly duration have been estimated when the daily rainfall growth curve

  1. Observing and studying extreme low pressure events with altimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrère, Loren; Mertz, Françoise; Dorandeu, Joel; Quilfen, Yves; Patoux, Jerome

    2009-01-01

    The ability of altimetry to detect extreme low pressure events and the relationship between sea level pressure and sea level anomalies during extra-tropical depressions have been investigated. Specific altimeter treatments have been developed for tropical cyclones and applied to obtain a relevant along-track sea surface height (SSH) signal: the case of tropical cyclone Isabel is presented here. The S- and C-band measurements are used because they are less impacted by rain than the Ku-band, and new sea state bias (SSB) and wet troposphere corrections are proposed. More accurate strong altimeter wind speeds are computed thanks to the Young algorithm. Ocean signals not related to atmospheric pressure can be removed with accuracy, even within a Near Real Time context, by removing the maps of sea level anomaly (SLA) provided by SSALTO/Duacs. In the case of Extra-Tropical Depressions, the classical altimeter processing can be used. Ocean signal not related to atmospheric pressure is along-track filtered. The sea level pressure (SLP)-SLA relationship is investigated for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Indian oceans; three regression models are proposed allowing restoring an altimeter SLP with a mean error of 5 hPa if compared to ECMWF or buoys SLP. The analysis of barotropic simulation outputs points out the regional variability of the SLP/Model Sea Level relationship and the wind effects. PMID:22573955

  2. Observing and Studying Extreme Low Pressure Events with Altimetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability of altimetry to detect extreme low pressure events and the relationship between sea level pressure and sea level anomalies during extra-tropical depressions have been investigated. Specific altimeter treatments have been developed for tropical cyclones and applied to obtain a relevant along-track sea surface height (SSH signal: the case of tropical cyclone Isabel is presented here. The S- and C-band measurements are used because they are less impacted by rain than the Ku-band, and new sea state bias (SSB and wet troposphere corrections are proposed. More accurate strong altimeter wind speeds are computed thanks to the Young algorithm. Ocean signals not related to atmospheric pressure can be removed with accuracy, even within a Near Real Time context, by removing the maps of sea level anomaly (SLA provided by SSALTO/Duacs. In the case of Extra-Tropical Depressions, the classical altimeter processing can be used. Ocean signal not related to atmospheric pressure is along-track filtered. The sea level pressure (SLP-SLA relationship is investigated for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Indian oceans; three regression models are proposed allowing restoring an altimeter SLP with a mean error of 5 hPa if compared to ECMWF or buoys SLP. The analysis of barotropic simulation outputs points out the regional variability of the SLP/Model Sea Level relationship and the wind effects.

  3. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken place. A

  4. The XIV Global Warming International Conference & Expo (GWXIV)——Global extreme events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JamesA.Roberts

    2004-01-01

    The focus of this year's conference is Global Extreme Events, characterized as large-scale climatic effects that have been increasing in magnitude and frequency. Prof. Sinyan Shen, Chairman of the GW International Program Committee, has been leading the world on Global Extreme Events and Emergency Response. In the long term climate change will cause the Earth to transit to another equilibrium state through many oscillations in climatic pattern. Global warming causes extreme events and bad weather in the near term. The immediate

  5. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  6. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  7. Co-dependence of Extreme Events in High Frequency FX Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Arnold Polanski; Evarist Stoja

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate extreme events in high frequency, multivariate FX returns within a purposely built framework. We generalize univariate tests and concepts to multidimensional settings and employ these novel techniques for parametric and nonparametric analysis. In particular, we investigate and quantify the co-dependence of cross-sectional and intertemporal extreme events. We find evidence of the cubic law of extreme returns, their increasing and asymmetric dependence and of the s...

  8. Scaling and pattern of extreme geomorphic events in a mountain basin, Idaho, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, C. H.; Rieman, B. E.; McKean, J. A.; Dunham, J. B.; King, J. G.

    2003-12-01

    While extreme events are rare in individual streams or stream reaches, the occurrence of an extreme event somewhere within an ensemble of streams can be commonplace. The relationship between event frequency and magnitude for large units of analysis depends on the size of area considered and the spatial continuity of events. Some of the more extreme geomorphic events affect only a limited spatial area. Limitations to area relate to spatial extents of event triggers such as fires, thunderstorms, or rain-on-snow. Understanding the size of extreme events is important in approaching the frequency-magnitude relationships for larger analysis frames and clarifying the role of extreme events at different spatial scales. Sequential mapping of channel reorganizing events from aerial photography records dating back 40 years in the Boise River basin reveal important characteristics of severe disturbances in a spatial context. The most relevant to this discussion is that there is little coherence in extreme events beyond 10 km. Patterns of occurrence for fishes occupying these streams may reflect historic patterns of extinction and colonization following catastrophic disturbance. These patterns and recent data on apparent gene flow among streams suggest that scaling of ecological processes is concordant with the patterns of channel disturbance we have identified here. There is evidence that this scale relates more to the scale of driving storm events than to pre-existing land disturbances such as fire, logging, or grazing. One puzzle is that some areas seem more prone to multiple events than others, which may relate to underlying variation in lithology and exposure to weather. Lithology also constrains the temporal signature of extreme events. The spatial extent of events may serve as a valuable metric of event magnitude to gauge their ecological influence.

  9. Ultimate design load analysis of planetary gearbox bearings under extreme events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallego Calderon, Juan Felipe; Natarajan, Anand; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of extreme events on the planet bearings of a 5 MW gearbox. The system is simulated using an aeroelastic tool, where the turbine structure is modeled, and MATLAB/Simulink, where the drivetrain (gearbox and generator) are modeled using a lumped-parameter approach....... Three extreme events are assessed: low-voltage ride through, emergency stop and normal stop. The analysis is focused on finding which event has the most negative impact on the bearing extreme radial loads. The two latter events are carried out following the guidelines of the International...

  10. Spatio-temporal extreme events in a laser with a saturable absorber

    CERN Document Server

    Rimoldi, Cristina; Prati, Franco; Tissoni, Giovanna

    2016-01-01

    We study extreme events occurring in the transverse $(x,y)$ section of the field emitted by a broad-area semiconductor laser with a saturable absorber. The spatio-temporal events on which we perform the statistical analysis are identified as maxima of the field intensity in the 3D space $(x,y,t)$. We identify regions in the parameter space where extreme events are more likely to occur and we study the connection of those extreme events with the cavity solitons that are known to exist in the same system, both stationary and self-pulsing.

  11. Soliciting Feedback from Resource Managers to Inform Response to Extreme Event Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedsworth, L. W.

    2014-12-01

    To date, extreme events have been defined by scientists through a top-down approach, relying on observations for current extremes and climate model projections based on future scenarios for their expected changes. These abstract definitions of extreme events are based on a corresponding characterization of what is "normal" and perhaps the choice of a threshold (e.g., a percentile of a historical distribution for a given climate variable), beyond which would represent an extreme event. However, there are not necessarily direct connections between these definitions and what is considered "extreme" in terms of impacts that challenge resource management. Several researchers have suggested that extreme event definitions would also be informed by input from on-the-ground resource managers who are familiar with the systems being impacted, the climate conditions that pose risks to those systems, and their resilience and adaptive capacity. This research will present preliminary survey work designed to solicit input from air and water quality managers in terms of what is considered an extreme event, how these events have been weathered in the past, and planned for in the future. The survey is based on literature review, interviews with air and water quality managers in California, and outreach to the scientific community. This work is the first step of a multistage research effort to link input from resource managers with scientific information to better inform air and water quality management and impacts of extreme events under a changing climate.

  12. Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.

    including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint...

  13. Seasonal and regional variations in extreme precipitation event frequency using CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, E.; Sriver, R. L.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Kunkel, K. E.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding how the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are changing is important for regional risk assessments and adaptation planning. Here we use observational data and an ensemble of climate change model experiments (from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)) to examine past and potential future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation event frequency over the United States. Using the extreme precipitation index as a metric for extreme precipitation change, we find key differences between models and observations. In particular, the CMIP5 models tend to overestimate the number of spring events and underestimate the number of summer events. This seasonal shift in the models is amplified in projections. These results provide a basis for evaluating climate model skill in simulating observed seasonality and changes in regional extreme precipitation. Additionally, we highlight key sources of variability and uncertainty that can potentially inform regional impact analyses and adaptation planning.

  14. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  15. On the two steps threshold selection for over-threshold modelling of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardara, Pietro; Mazas, Franck; Weiss, Jerome; Andreewsky, Marc; Kergadallan, Xavier; Benoit, Michel; Hamm, Luc

    2013-04-01

    The estimation of the probability of occurrence of extreme events is traditionally achieved by fitting a probability distribution on a sample of extreme observations. In particular, the extreme value theory (EVT) states that values exceeding a given threshold converge through a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) if the original sample is composed of independent and identically distributed values. However, the temporal series of sea and ocean variables usually show strong temporal autocorrelation. Traditionally, in order to select independent events for the following statistical analysis, the concept of a physical threshold is introduced: events that excess that threshold are defined as "extreme events". This is the so-called "Peak Over a Threshold (POT)" sampling, widely spread in the literature and currently used for engineering applications among many others. In the past, the threshold for the statistical sampling of extreme values asymptotically convergent toward GPD and the threshold for the physical selection of independent extreme events were confused, as the same threshold was used for both sampling data and to meet the hypothesis of extreme value convergence, leading to some incoherencies. In particular, if the two steps are performed simultaneously, the number of peaks over the threshold can increase but also decrease when the threshold decreases. This is logic in a physical point of view, since the definition of the sample of "extreme events" changes, but is not coherent with the statistical theory. We introduce a two-steps threshold selection for over-threshold modelling, aiming to discriminate (i) a physical threshold for the selection of extreme and independent events, and (ii) a statistical threshold for the optimization of the coherence with the hypothesis of the EVT. The former is a physical events identification procedure (also called "declustering") aiming at selecting independent extreme events. The latter is a purely statistical optimization

  16. (When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

    2015-04-01

    In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain

  17. Extreme drought events in Germany during the last 60 yrs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.; Kumar, R.; Zink, M.

    2011-12-01

    Droughts are among the most costly natural disasters because they heavily impact on the economy of a region as well as on its social and cultural activities. Droughts do not only occur in arid or semiarid regions but also in humid ones. The year 2007, for example, was the sunniest, hottest and driest in Germany in the last two centuries. In this case, it was too dry too early. As a result, the harvest was cut by half leading to enormous losses in the primary sector. Consumer prices of some agricultural products went up 26 percent. The purpose of this study is to identify the major agricultural and hydrological droughts in Germany since 1950 based on their severity, duration and areal extend. To achieve this goal, a 60-yr retrospective hydrological simulation of the land surface water budget over Germany was carried out with the process-based distributed hydrological model mHM. The model was forced with grided daily precipitation and temperature data at 4x4 km, and the model simulations were carried out at same spatial resolutions. Point measurement data from more than 5600 raingauges and about 1120 meteorological stations (DWD) were interpolated with EDK. Land cover change was also considered during this period. Drought indices were derived as monthly quantiles of the simulated fluxes which include root zone soil moisture and total runoff. A Gaussian kernel smoother was used to estimate these quantiles at each grid cell. A spatio-temporal cluster algorithm was used to consolidate all significant drought events. Main statistics such as magnitude, areal extend, duration, and severity were estimated only on those selected clusters. The mHM model was calibrated in major river basins giving Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies for daily discharge simulations greater than 0.8 in the evaluation period. Plausibility tests between the simulated mHM soil moisture and land surface temperature from MODIS and regional climate model reanalysis data compared well. Results indicated that

  18. An Ensemble Approach to Extreme Space Weather Event Probability -- A First Look

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, S.; Fronczyk, K.; McCarron, E.; Pratt, L. M.

    2015-12-01

    An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social wellbeing. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events occur less frequently with only several historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) forensically examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events; and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present an analysis of several of these studies. We created a unified statistical framework to visualize previous analyses, and developed a model from an ensemble using statistical methods. We look at geomagnetic disturbance probability across multiple return periods. We discuss what the most likely 100-year extreme event (a parameter of interest to policy makers and planners) and the return period for other extreme historical events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policy makers and planners, the current limitations (in data and understanding) when compared to other hazards, and the gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.

  19. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7-11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951......, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than...

  20. A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.; Mankin, Justin S.; Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; Raymond, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

  1. Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; Jin, Fei-Fei; Timmermann, Axel; Collins, Mat; Vecchi, Gabriel; Lengaigne, Matthieu; England, Matthew H.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Takahashi, Ken; Guilyardi, Eric

    2015-02-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Niño and La Niña, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture. The 1998-1999 extreme La Niña event that followed the 1997-1998 extreme El Niño event switched extreme El Niño-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States. During extreme La Niña events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Niño characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming, but how La Niña will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. ), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Niña events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Niño events are conducive to development of the extreme La Niña events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Niño events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.

  2. Statistics of extreme events in Chinese stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the impact of financial factors on daily volume recurrent time intervals in the developing Chinese stock markets. The tails of probability distribution functions (PDFs) of volume recurrent intervals behave as a power-law, and the scaling exponent decreases with the increase of stock lifetime, which are similar to those in the US stock markets, and they are typical representatives of developed markets. The difference is that the power-law exponent values remain almost the same with the changes of market capitalization, mean volume, and mean trading value, respectively. These findings enrich the results for event statistics for financial markets. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  3. Extreme events as sources of health vulnerability: Drought as an example

    OpenAIRE

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Kathryn Bowen

    2016-01-01

    The health risks of climate change arise from the interactions of the hazards associated with a changing climate (e.g. increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as drought), the communities exposed to those hazards, the susceptibility of communities to adverse health impacts when exposed, and the capacity to prepare for and cope with the hazard. However, there is a very limited understanding of how extreme weather and climate events could themselves ...

  4. The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations

    OpenAIRE

    Fabina, NS; Baskett, ML; Gross, K.

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 by the Ecological Society of America. Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additional...

  5. Extreme rainfall analysis based on precipitation events classification in Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, Lorenzo; Fiori, Elisabetta; Molini, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Extreme rainfall statistical analysis is constituted by a consolidated family of techniques that allows to study the frequency and the statistical properties of the high-intensity meteorological events. This kind of techniques is well established and comprehends standards approaches like the GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) or TCEV (Two Components Extreme Value) probability distribution fit of the data recorded in a given raingauge on a given location. Regionalization techniques, that are aimed to spatialize the analysis on medium-large regions are also well established and operationally used. In this work a novel procedure is proposed in order to statistically characterize the rainfall extremes in a given region, basing on a "event-based" approach. Given a temporal sequence of continuous rain maps, an "event" is defined as an aggregate, continuous in time and space, of cells whose rainfall height value is above a certain threshold. Basing on this definition it is possible to classify, on a given region and for a given period, a population of events and characterize them with a number of statistics, such as their total volume, maximum spatial extension, duration, average intensity, etc. Thus, the population of events so obtained constitutes the input of a novel extreme values characteriztion technique: given a certain spatial scale, a mobile window analysis is performed and all the events that fall in the window are anlysed from an extreme value point of view. For each window, the extreme annual events are considered: maximum total volume, maximum spatial extension, maximum intensity, maximum duration are all considered for an extreme analysis and the corresponding probability distributions are fitted. The analysis allows in this way to statistically characterize the most intense events and, at the same time, to spatialize these rain characteristics exploring their variability in space. This methodology was employed on rainfall fields obtained by interpolation of

  6. Extreme events statistics in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galfi, Vera Melinda; Bodai, Tamas; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme events statistics provides a theoretical framework to analyze and predict extreme events based on the convergence of the distribution of the extremes to some limiting distribution. In this work we analyze the convergence of the distribution of extreme events to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), using a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model, and compare our results with theoretical findings from the field of extreme value theory for dynamical systems. We study the behavior of the GEV shape parameter by increasing the block size and of the GPD shape parameter by increasing the threshold, and compare the inferred parameters with a theoretical shape parameter that depends only on the geometrical properties of the attractor. The main objective is to find out whether this theoretical shape parameter can be used to evaluate extreme event analysis based on model output. For this, we perform very long simulations. We run our system with two different levels of forcing determined by two different meridional temperature gradients, one inducing a medium level of chaos and the other one a high level of chaos. We analyze in both cases extremes of energy variables.

  7. Soil biotic legacy effects of extreme weather events influence plant invasiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meisner, A.; De Deyn, G.B.; De Boer, W.; Van der Putten, W.H.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase future abiotic stresses on ecosystems through extreme weather events leading to more extreme drought and rainfall incidences [Jentsch A, et al. (2007) Front Ecol Environ 5(7):365–374]. These fluctuations in precipitation may affect soil biota, soil processes [E

  8. Triggering extreme events at the nanoscale in photonic seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, C.; van der Wel, R. E. C.; Rotenberg, N.; Kuipers, L.; Krauss, T. F.; di Falco, A.; Fratalocchi, A.

    2015-04-01

    Hurricanes, tsunamis, rogue waves and tornadoes are rare natural phenomena that embed an exceptionally large amount of energy, which appears and quickly disappears in a probabilistic fashion. This makes them difficult to predict and hard to generate on demand. Here we demonstrate that we can trigger the onset of rare events akin to rogue waves controllably, and systematically use their generation to break the diffraction limit of light propagation. We illustrate this phenomenon in the case of a random field, where energy oscillates among incoherent degrees of freedom. Despite the low energy carried by each wave, we illustrate how to control a mechanism of spontaneous synchronization, which constructively builds up the spectral energy available in the whole bandwidth of the field into giant structures, whose statistics is predictable. The larger the frequency bandwidth of the random field, the larger the amplitude of rare events that are built up by this mechanism. Our system is composed of an integrated optical resonator, realized on a photonic crystal chip. Through near-field imaging experiments, we record confined rogue waves characterized by a spatial localization of 206 nm and with an ultrashort duration of 163 fs at a wavelength of 1.55 μm. Such localized energy patterns are formed in a deterministic dielectric structure that does not require nonlinear properties.

  9. Triggering extreme events at the nanoscale in photonic seas

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Changxu

    2015-03-09

    Hurricanes, tsunamis, rogue waves and tornadoes are rare natural phenomena that embed an exceptionally large amount of energy, which appears and quickly disappears in a probabilistic fashion. This makes them difficult to predict and hard to generate on demand. Here we demonstrate that we can trigger the onset of rare events akin to rogue waves controllably, and systematically use their generation to break the diffraction limit of light propagation. We illustrate this phenomenon in the case of a random field, where energy oscillates among incoherent degrees of freedom. Despite the low energy carried by each wave, we illustrate how to control a mechanism of spontaneous synchronization, which constructively builds up the spectral energy available in the whole bandwidth of the field into giant structures, whose statistics is predictable. The larger the frequency bandwidth of the random field, the larger the amplitude of rare events that are built up by this mechanism. Our system is composed of an integrated optical resonator, realized on a photonic crystal chip. Through near-field imaging experiments, we record confined rogue waves characterized by a spatial localization of 206 nm and with an ultrashort duration of 163 fs at a wavelength of 1.55 μm. Such localized energy patterns are formed in a deterministic dielectric structure that does not require nonlinear properties.

  10. Power Outages, Extreme Events and Health: a Systematic Review of the Literature from 2011-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Chaamala; Landeg, Owen; Murray, Virginia

    2014-01-01

    Background Extreme events (e.g. flooding) threaten critical infrastructure including power supplies. Many interlinked systems in the modern world depend on a reliable power supply to function effectively. The health sector is no exception, but the impact of power outages on health is poorly understood. Greater understanding is essential so that adverse health impacts can be prevented and/or mitigated. Methods We searched Medline, CINAHL and Scopus for papers about the health impacts of power outages during extreme events published in 2011-2012. A thematic analysis was undertaken on the extracted information. The Public Health England Extreme Events Bulletins between 01/01/2013 - 31/03/2013 were used to identify extreme events that led to power outages during this three-month period. Results We identified 20 relevant articles. Power outages were found to impact health at many levels within diverse settings. Recurrent themes included the difficulties of accessing healthcare, maintaining frontline services and the challenges of community healthcare. We identified 52 power outages in 19 countries that were the direct consequence of extreme events during the first three months of 2013. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first review of the health impacts of power outages. We found the current evidence and knowledge base to be poor. With scientific consensus predicting an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events due to climate change, the gaps in knowledge need to be addressed in order to mitigate the impact of power outages on global health. PMID:24459613

  11. Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic (shorter duration timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics might be consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

  12. Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of non-stationary extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics are consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

  13. The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiggens Piers

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The solar energetic particle (SEP radiation environment is an important consideration for spacecraft design, spacecraft mission planning and human spaceflight. Herein is presented an investigation into the likely severity of effects of a very large Solar Particle Event (SPE on technology and humans in space. Fluences for SPEs derived using statistical models are compared to historical SPEs to verify their appropriateness for use in the analysis which follows. By combining environment tools with tools to model effects behind varying layers of spacecraft shielding it is possible to predict what impact a large SPE would be likely to have on a spacecraft in Near-Earth interplanetary space or geostationary Earth orbit. Also presented is a comparison of results generated using the traditional method of inputting the environment spectra, determined using a statistical model, into effects tools and a new method developed as part of the ESA SEPEM Project allowing for the creation of an effect time series on which statistics, previously applied to the flux data, can be run directly. The SPE environment spectra is determined and presented as energy integrated proton fluence (cm−2 as a function of particle energy (in MeV. This is input into the SHIELDOSE-2, MULASSIS, NIEL, GRAS and SEU effects tools to provide the output results. In the case of the new method for analysis, the flux time series is fed directly into the MULASSIS and GEMAT tools integrated into the SEPEM system. The output effect quantities include total ionising dose (in rads, non-ionising energy loss (MeV g−1, single event upsets (upsets/bit and the dose in humans compared to established limits for stochastic (or cancer-causing effects and tissue reactions (such as acute radiation sickness in humans given in grey-equivalent and sieverts respectively.

  14. Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

  15. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events; Impacts du changement climatique sur les evenements climatiques extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Terray, L. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  16. System of systems engineering and risk management of extreme events: concepts and case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bristow, Michele; Fang, Liping; Hipel, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause-and-effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. PMID:22804565

  17. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Guhathakurta; O P Sreejith; P A Menon

    2011-06-01

    The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.

  18. Roadmap on optical rogue waves and extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhmediev, Nail; Kibler, Bertrand; Baronio, Fabio; Belić, Milivoj; Zhong, Wei-Ping; Zhang, Yiqi; Chang, Wonkeun; Soto-Crespo, Jose M.; Vouzas, Peter; Grelu, Philippe; Lecaplain, Caroline; Hammani, K.; Rica, S.; Picozzi, A.; Tlidi, Mustapha; Panajotov, Krassimir; Mussot, Arnaud; Bendahmane, Abdelkrim; Szriftgiser, Pascal; Genty, Goery; Dudley, John; Kudlinski, Alexandre; Demircan, Ayhan; Morgner, Uwe; Amiraranashvili, Shalva; Bree, Carsten; Steinmeyer, Günter; Masoller, C.; Broderick, Neil G. R.; Runge, Antoine F. J.; Erkintalo, Miro; Residori, S.; Bortolozzo, U.; Arecchi, F. T.; Wabnitz, Stefan; Tiofack, C. G.; Coulibaly, S.; Taki, M.

    2016-06-01

    The pioneering paper ‘Optical rogue waves’ by Solli et al (2007 Nature 450 1054) started the new subfield in optics. This work launched a great deal of activity on this novel subject. As a result, the initial concept has expanded and has been enriched by new ideas. Various approaches have been suggested since then. A fresh look at the older results and new discoveries has been undertaken, stimulated by the concept of ‘optical rogue waves’. Presently, there may not by a unique view on how this new scientific term should be used and developed. There is nothing surprising when the opinion of the experts diverge in any new field of research. After all, rogue waves may appear for a multiplicity of reasons and not necessarily only in optical fibers and not only in the process of supercontinuum generation. We know by now that rogue waves may be generated by lasers, appear in wide aperture cavities, in plasmas and in a variety of other optical systems. Theorists, in turn, have suggested many other situations when rogue waves may be observed. The strict definition of a rogue wave is still an open question. For example, it has been suggested that it is defined as ‘an optical pulse whose amplitude or intensity is much higher than that of the surrounding pulses’. This definition (as suggested by a peer reviewer) is clear at the intuitive level and can be easily extended to the case of spatial beams although additional clarifications are still needed. An extended definition has been presented earlier by N Akhmediev and E Pelinovsky (2010 Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 185 1-4). Discussions along these lines are always useful and all new approaches stimulate research and encourage discoveries of new phenomena. Despite the potentially existing disagreements, the scientific terms ‘optical rogue waves’ and ‘extreme events’ do exist. Therefore coordination of our efforts in either unifying the concept or in introducing alternative definitions must be continued. From

  19. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  20. Combined effects of extreme climatic events and elevation on nutritional quality and herbivory of Alpine plants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Leingärtner

    Full Text Available Climatic extreme events can cause the shift or disruption of plant-insect interactions due to altered plant quality, e.g. leaf carbon to nitrogen ratios, and phenology. However, the response of plant-herbivore interactions to extreme events and climatic gradients has been rarely studied, although climatic extremes will increase in frequency and intensity in the future and insect herbivores represent a highly diverse and functionally important group. We set up a replicated climate change experiment along elevational gradients in the German Alps to study the responses of three plant guilds and their herbivory by insects to extreme events (extreme drought, advanced and delayed snowmelt versus control plots under different climatic conditions on 15 grassland sites. Our results indicate that elevational shifts in CN (carbon to nitrogen ratios and herbivory depend on plant guild and season. CN ratios increased with altitude for grasses, but decreased for legumes and other forbs. In contrast to our hypotheses, extreme climatic events did not significantly affect CN ratios and herbivory. Thus, our study indicates that nutritional quality of plants and antagonistic interactions with insect herbivores are robust against seasonal climatic extremes. Across the three functional plant guilds, herbivory increased with nitrogen concentrations. Further, increased CN ratios indicate a reduction in nutritional plant quality with advancing season. Although our results revealed no direct effects of extreme climatic events, the opposing responses of plant guilds along elevation imply that competitive interactions within plant communities might change under future climates, with unknown consequences for plant-herbivore interactions and plant community composition.

  1. Quantifying Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Resolved Synoptic Atmospheric Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Monier, E.; Entekhabi, D.

    2012-12-01

    An important question for climate change science is possible shifts in the extremes of regional water cycle, especially changes in patterns, intensity and/or frequency of extreme precipitation events. In this study, an analogue method is developed to help detect extreme precipitation events and their potential changes under future climate regimes without relying on the highly uncertain modeled precipitation. Our approach is based on the use of composite maps to identify the distinct synoptic and large-scale atmospheric conditions that lead to extreme precipitation events at local scales. The analysis of extreme daily precipitation events, exemplified in the south-central United States, is carried out using 62-yr (1948-2010) CPC gridded station data and NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Various aspects of the daily extremes are examined, including their historical ranking, associated common circulation features at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere, and moisture plumes. The scheme is first evaluated for the multiple climate model simulations of the 20th century from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive to determine whether the statistical nature of modeled precipitation events (i.e. the numbers of occurrences over each season) could well correspond to that of the observed. Further, the approach will be applied to the CMIP5 multi-model projections of various climate change scenarios (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios) in the next century to assess the potential changes in the probability of extreme precipitation events. The research results from this study should be of particular significance to help society develop adaptive strategies and prevent catastrophic losses.

  2. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  3. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  4. Impact of extreme precipitation events in the Miño-Sil river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-González, Manuel; Añel, Juan Antonio; de la Torre, Laura

    2015-04-01

    We herein research the impact of extreme rainfall events in the Miño-Sil basin, a heavily dammed basin located in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. Extreme rainfall events are very important in this basin because with 106 dams it is the most dammed in Spain. These dams are almost exclusively used for hydropower generation, the installed generating capacity reaches more than 2700 MW and represents almost 9% of the total installed electrical generation capacity of the Iberian Peninsula, therefore with a potential impact on the energy market. We research the extreme events of rainfall an their return periods trying to reproduce the past extreme events of rainfall and their time periods to prove the proper functioning of the adapted model, so we can forecast future extreme events of rainfall in the basin. This research tries to optimize the storage of dams and adapt the management to problems as climate change. The results obtained are very relevant for hydroelectric generation because the operation of hydropower system depends primarily on the availability of storaged water.

  5. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. PMID:26311274

  6. Changes in the frequency of extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, H. E.; Fiore, A. M.; Polvani, L. M.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Fang, Y.; Staehelin, J.

    2012-04-01

    Over the past few decades, thresholds for national air quality standards, intended to protect public health and welfare, have been lowered repeatedly. At the same time observations, over Europe and the Eastern U.S., demonstrate that extreme air pollution events (high O3 and PM2.5) are typically associated with stagnation events. Recent work showed that in a changing climate high air pollution events are likely to increase in frequency and duration. Within this work we examine meteorological and surface ozone observations from CASTNet over the U.S. and EMEP over Europe. With innovative statistical tools - i.e., statistics of extremes (EVT) - we analyze the frequency distribution of extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe. The upper tail of observed values at individual stations (e.g., within the CASTNet), i.e., the extremes (maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3>60ppb) are poorly described by a Gaussian distribution. However, further analysis showed that applying Peak-Over-Threshold-models, better capture the extremes and allows us to estimate return levels of pollution events above certain threshold values of interest. The results show that changes in national ambient air quality standards had significant effect on the occurrence frequency of high air pollution episodes.

  7. Recent changes in extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia: 1971-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jamaludin, Suhaila; Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2009-05-01

    This paper assesses recent changes in extremes of annual rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on daily rainfall data for ten rain-gauged stations over the period 1971-2005. Eight indices that represent the extreme events are defined and analyzed. Maps of trends for these indices, which are extreme dry spell (XDS), extreme rain sum (XRS), extreme wet day intensities at 95% and 99% percentiles (I95 and I99), proportion of extreme wet day to the total wet day (R95 and R99), and frequency of extreme wet day at 95% and 99% percentiles (N95 and N99), were analyzed based on annual data and seasons. When the indices are evaluated annually, the Mann-Kendall and linear regression trend tests showed increasing trends in the extreme intensity indices (I95 and I99) at two stations. A significant decrease in N99, associated with the frequency of extremely wet days, was observed at 60% of the stations. The change points for these indices are found to occur in the period of the 1980s. There is no significant trend detected for XDS, XRS, and proportion of extreme rainfall over total rainfall amount indices during the period considered in this study. Descriptive analysis of indices during the monsoon period showed that the annual spatial pattern for the peninsula is very much influenced by the northeast monsoon where the highest mean values for majority of the indices occur during this time period.

  8. Potential impacts of afforestation on climate change and extreme events in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Salami, Ayobami T.; Matthew, Olaniran J.; Odedokun, Sola

    2013-07-01

    Afforestation is usually thought as a good approach to mitigate impacts of warming over a region. This study presents an argument that afforestation may have bigger impacts than originally thought by previous studies. The study investigates the impacts of afforestation on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria, using a regional climate model (RegCM3), forced with global climate model simulations. The impacts of seven afforestation options on the near future (2031-2050, under A1B scenario) climate and the extreme events are investigated. RegCM3 replicates essential features in the present-day (1981-2000) climate and the associated extreme events, and adequately simulates the seasonal variations over the ecological zones in the country. However, the model simulates the seasonal climate better over the northern ecological zones than over the southern ecological zones. The simulated spatial distribution of the extreme events agrees well with the observation, though the magnitude of the simulated events is smaller than the observed. The study shows that afforestation in Nigeria could have both positive and negative future impacts on the climate change and extreme events in the country. While afforestation reduces the projected global warming and enhances rainfall over the afforested area (and over coastal zones), it enhances the warming and reduces the rainfall over the north-eastern part of the country. In addition, the afforestation induces more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events (flooding) over the coastal region and more frequent occurrence of heat waves and droughts over the semi-arid region. The positive and negative impacts of the afforestation are not limited to Nigeria; they extend to the neighboring countries. While afforestation lowers the warming and enhances rainfall over Benin Republic, it increases the warming and lowers the rainfall over Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The result of the study has important implication for the ongoing climate

  9. Uncertainties Related to Extreme Event Statistics of Sewer System Surcharge and Overflow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Johansen, C.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2005-01-01

    by performing long term simulations - using a sewer flow simulation model - and draw up extreme event statistics from the model simulations. In this context it is important to realize that uncertainties related to the input parameters of rainfall runoff models will give rise to uncertainties related...... to draw up extreme event statistics covering return periods of as much as 33 years. By comparing these two different extreme event statistics it is evident that these to a great extent depend on the uncertainties related to the input parameters of the rainfall runoff model.......Today it is common practice - in the major part of Europe - to base design of sewer systems in urban areas on recommended minimum values of flooding frequencies related to either pipe top level, basement level in buildings or level of road surfaces. Thus storm water runoff in sewer systems is only...

  10. Beyond Gaussian averages: redirecting international business and management research toward extreme events and power laws

    OpenAIRE

    Pierpaolo Andriani; Bill McKelvey

    2007-01-01

    Practicing managers live in a world of ‘extremes’, but international business and management research is based on Gaussian statistics that rule out such extremes. On occasion, positive feedback processes among interactive data points cause extreme events characterized by power laws. They seem ubiquitous; we list 80 kinds of them – half each among natural and social phenomena. We use imposed tension and Per Bak's ‘self-organized criticality’ to argue that Pareto-based science and statistics (b...

  11. A spatial and nonstationary model for the frequency of extreme rainfall events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the properties of extreme rainfall events have been observed worldwide. In relation to the discussion of ongoing climatic changes, it is of high importance to attribute these changes to known sources of climate variability. Focusing on spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of......, and the average summer temperature. The two latter showed a high relative importance. The established link will be beneficial when predicting future occurrences of precipitation extremes. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved....

  12. 500 years of regional forest growth variability and links to climatic extreme events in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Babst, Flurin; Carrer, Marco; Poulter, Benjamin; Urbinati, Carlo; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Frank, David

    2012-01-01

    Climatic extreme events strongly affect forest growth and thus significantly influence the inter-annual terrestrial carbon balance. As we are facing an increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes, extensive empirical archives are required to assess continental scale impacts of temperature and precipitation anomalies. Here we divide a tree-ring network of approximately 1000 sites into fifteen groups of similar high-frequency growth variability to reconstruct regional positive and n...

  13. Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Ziwang; Qiu, Xin; Liu, Jinliang; Madras, Neal; Wang, Xiaogang; Zhu, Huaiping

    2016-05-01

    As one of the most important extreme weather event types, extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on human and natural environment. This study assesses the projected long term trends in frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events represented by heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, very wet days and extreme wet days over Ontario, based on results of 21 CMIP3 GCM runs. To achieve this goal, first, all model data are linearly interpolated onto 682 grid points (0.45° × 0.45°) in Ontario; Next, biases in model daily precipitation amount are corrected with a local intensity scaling method to make the total wet days and total wet day precipitation from each of the GCMs are consistent with that from the climate forecast system reanalysis data, and then the four indices are estimated for each of the 21 GCM runs for 1968-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. After that, with the assumption that the rate parameter of the Poisson process for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events may vary with time as climate changes, the Poisson regression model which expresses the log rate as a linear function of time is used to detect the trend in frequency of extreme events in the GCMs simulations; Finally, the trends and their uncertainty are estimated. The result shows that in the twenty-first century annual heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days and very wet days and extreme wet days are likely to significantly increase over major parts of Ontario and particularly heavy precipitation days, very wet days are very likely to significantly increase in some sub-regions in eastern Ontario. However, trends of seasonal indices are not significant.

  14. Exploring the Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Extreme Weather Events using Multiple Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, L.; Schlosser, C. A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Felzer, B. S.; Monier, E.; Paw U, K.

    2012-12-01

    This study investigates the complex terrestrial ecosystems response to extreme weather events using three different land surface models. Previous studies have showed that extreme weather events can have serious and damaging impacts on human and natural systems and they are most evident on regional and local scales. Under climate change, extreme weather events are likely to increase in both magnitude and frequency, making realistic simulation of ecosystems response to extreme events more essential than ever in assessing the potential damaging impacts. Three different land surface models are used to explore the impacts of extreme events on regional to continental ecosystem responses. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) is a process-based ecosystem model that uses spatially referenced information on climate, elevation, soils, vegetation and water availability to make monthly estimates of vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes. The Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA) is a multi-layered land surface model based on eddy-covariance theory to calculate the biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of carbon dioxide, water, and momentums. The Community Land Model (CLM) is a community-based model widely used in global-scale land data assimilation research. The study focuses on the complex interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere such as water cycle, carbon and nitrogen budgets, and environmental conditions. The model simulations and performances are evaluated using the biogeophysical and micrometeorological observation data from the AmeriFlux sites across the continental US. This study compares and evaluates the ability of different models and their key components to capture terrestrial response to extreme weather events.

  15. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  16. Extreme events: being prepared for the pitfalls with progressing sustainable urban water management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keath, N A; Brown, R R

    2009-01-01

    It is widely accepted that new, more sustainable approaches to urban water management are required if cities and ecosystems are to become resilient to the effects of growing urban populations and global warming. Climate change predictions show that it is likely that cities around the world will be subject to an increasing number of extreme and less predictable events including flooding and drought. Historical transition studies have shown that major events such as extremes can expedite the adoption of new practices by destabilising existing management regimes and opening up new windows of opportunity for change. Yet, they can also act to reinforce and further entrench old practices. This case study of two Australian cities responding to extreme water scarcity reveals that being unprepared for extremes can undermine progress towards sustainable outcomes. The results showed that despite evidence of significant progress towards sustainable urban water management in Brisbane and Melbourne, the extreme water scarcity acted to reinforce traditional practices at the expense of emerging sustainability niches. Drawing upon empirical research and transitions literature, recommendations are provided for developing institutional mechanisms that are able to respond proactively to extreme events and be a catalyst for SUWM when such opportunities for change arise.

  17. Investigating the variation and non-stationarity in precipitation extremes based on the concept of event-based extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    She, Dunxian; Shao, Quanxi; Xia, Jun; Taylor, John A.; Zhang, Yongyong; Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Xiang; Zou, Lei

    2015-11-01

    Extreme precipitations (EP) could induce a series of social, environmental and ecological problems. Traditional EP analysis usually investigated the characteristics based on a fixed time scale and therefore ignored the continuity of EP occurrence. As a result, a comprehensive assessment on the influence and consequence of the EP occurring during consecutive time periods were largely eliminated. On the other hand, the characteristics of EP, including variables such as frequency, intensity and extreme volume, were commonly defined without sufficient consideration of the local tolerance capacity (which can be represented by a threshold level of EP) and therefore would sometimes be inappropriate. In this study, we proposed a concept of event-based extreme precipitation (EEP) by considering the continuity of EP and defined the statistical variables for the characteristics of an EEP event by taking account of local tolerance capacity. An EEP was identified as a collection of precipitation data over the consecutive time period in which all the precipitation amounts are above the pre-defined threshold, and EEP events are separated by at least one time step (e.g., day or hour) with precipitation amount below the threshold. As a case study which in fact motivated our proposal, we investigated the changes and variations of EEP with the consideration of potential non-stationarity in the Hanjiang River Basin of China (HJRB) during the time period of 1960-2013. Results showed that the concept of EEP, which could reflect the impact of continuity of EP occurrence and mirror the differences of local tolerance capacity, was more appropriate than the traditional method in the EP analysis.

  18. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Juan MORENO; Anders Pape Mφller

    2011-01-01

    Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history.

  19. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

  20. Introduction to CHRS CONNECT - a global extreme precipitation event database using object-oriented approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, P.; Thorstensen, A. R.; Liu, H.; Sellars, S. L.; Ashouri, H.; Huynh, P.; Palacios, T.; Li, P.; Tran, H.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K. L.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events cause natural disasters that impact many parts of the world. Understanding how these events vary in space and time is a key goal in climatology research. The recently developed CHRS CONNECT (Center for Hydrometeorology & Remote Sensing CONNected precipitation objECT) system is a global extreme precipitation event database derived from CHRS's satellite precipitation data products, including PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and PERSIANN-CDR (Climate Data Record). Precipitation data from PERSIANN is hourly, 0.25ox0.25o grid, 60oS - 60oN, from 2000 to 2015, and data from PERSIANN-CDR is daily, 0.25ox0.25o grid, 60oS - 60oN, from 1983 to 2015. We used an advanced method in computer science which represents a data point on a three dimensional grid (longitude, latitude and time) called volumetric pixel or voxel. An object segmentation algorithm was developed to derive precipitation events as objects. In each object, voxels are connected to each other through the 26 connectivity faces (a voxel is connected to a neighboring voxel if they share a common face). The object-oriented algorithm was designed to provide a unique means in which extreme precipitation events and their attributes can be stored in a searchable database. This database is accessible through a user-friendly interface (connect.eng.uci.edu), allowing the user to retrieve events that fit specific criteria of interest such as spatiotemporal domain, maximum intensity, minimum duration and climatology indices. The interface includes several modes for visualization such as total precipitation, event tracking, and event evolution animation. The CHRS CONNECT tool is designed to be used for climatology research related to extreme precipitation events as well as for water resources management applications.

  1. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.;

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961-90) and fut......This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961...

  2. On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Soloviev, A.; Gabrielov, A.

    2011-12-01

    We describe a uniform approach to predicting different extreme events, also known as critical phenomena, disasters, or crises. The following types of such events are considered: strong earthquakes; economic recessions (their onset and termination); surges of unemployment; surges of crime; and electoral changes of the governing party. A uniform approach is possible due to the common feature of these events: each of them is generated by a certain hierarchical dissipative complex system. After a coarse-graining, such systems exhibit regular behavior patterns; we look among them for "premonitory patterns" that signal the approach of an extreme event. We introduce methodology, based on the optimal control theory, assisting disaster management in choosing optimal set of disaster preparedness measures undertaken in response to a prediction. Predictions with their currently realistic (limited) accuracy do allow preventing a considerable part of the damage by a hierarchy of preparedness measures. Accuracy of prediction should be known, but not necessarily high.

  3. The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Lee. E. Brown; Russell G. DEATH; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E.; Milner, Alexander M.; Ormerod, Steve J.; Thompson, Ross M.; Pawar, Samraat

    2016-01-01

    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanisti...

  4. Radiation doses along selected flight profiles during two extreme solar cosmic ray events

    OpenAIRE

    E. Flückiger; Bütikofer, R.

    2011-01-01

    The radiation dose rates at flight altitudes may be hazardously increased during solar cosmic ray events. Within the scope of this paper we investigate the total accumulated radiation doses, i.e. the contribution of galactic and solar cosmic rays, during the two extreme solar cosmic ray events on 29 September 1989 and on 20 January 2005 along selected flight profiles. In addition, the paper discusses the consequences of possible solar cosmic ray flux approximations on the results of the radia...

  5. BOLIVAR-tool for analysis and simulation of metocean extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopatoukhin, Leonid; Boukhanovsky, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    Metocean extreme events are caused by the combination of multivariate and multiscale processes which depend from each other in different scales (due to short-term, synoptic, annual, year-to-year variability). There is no simple method for their estimation with controllable tolerance. Thus, the extreme analysis in practice is sometimes reduced to the exploration of various methods and models in respect to decreasing the uncertainty of estimates. Therefore, a researcher needs the multifaceted computational tools which cover the various branches of extreme analysis. BOLIVAR is the multi-functional computational software for the researches and engineers who explore the extreme environmental conditions to design and build offshore structures and floating objects. It contains a set of computational modules of various methods for extreme analysis, and a set of modules for the stochastic and hydrodynamic simulation of metocean processes. In this sense BOLIVAR is a Problem Solving Environment (PSE). The BOLIVAR is designed for extreme events analysis and contains a set of computational modules of IDM, AMS, POT, MENU, and SINTEF methods, and a set of modules for stochastic simulation of metocean processes in various scales. The BOLIVAR is the tool to simplify the resource-consuming computational experiments to explore the metocean extremes in univariate and multivariate cases. There are field ARMA models for short-term variability, spatial-temporal random pulse model for synoptic variability (storms and calms alteration), cyclostationare model of annual and year-to-year variability. The combination of above mentioned modules and data sources allows to estimate: omnidirectional and directional extremes (with T-years return periods); multivariate extremes (the set of parameters) and evaluation of their impacts to marine structures and floating objects; extremes of spatial-temporal fields (including the trajectory of T-years storms). An employment of concurrent methods for

  6. METHOD TO ASSESS THE EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN DANUBE FLUVIAL DELTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN MIERLĂ

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Method to assess the extreme hydrological events in Danube fluvial Delta. In this paper the subject is about of testing a method for Romania to assess the extreme hydrological events. In this paper through hydrological extreme events it should be understood as the extreme droughts and the extreme flooding. The place to be tested this method for Romania is the Danube Delta, fluvial delta to be more precisely. The importance of the area consists in the fact that is the third Delta of the Europe (after the Volga’s and Kuban’s. The method that is supposed to be tested on a specific part of the delta is aiming to rise the knowledge about the extreme hydrological events (drought and flooding and to be able to respond in an appropriate way to these. For this paper it will be taken into account the hydrological events occurred in 2003 (the exceptional drought and in 2006 (the exceptional flood. To do the analysis there were used satellite images (LANDSAT from the period that was taken into account and additional there were used the hypsometrical model of the Danube Delta for the specific area. The first two datasets (2003 and 2006 satellite images give information about were the border of the water (in drought period and respective in flooding one reached. The second dataset (the delta’s hypsometry give information about the altitude of the terrain in order to establish which areas, at a certain water level, are flooded. The result of these datasets combination is the calibration of the hypsometrical model of the Danube Delta, in that region, regarding the hydrological events in the sense of building-up the hydrograds as isolines. The new approach of this matter can be more concrete and makes easier to see on the cartographic support the hydrologic events. The information obtained from these datasets makes the awareness regarding the extreme hydrological events to be higher and respective the measures taken to mitigate these will be more efficient.

  7. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

    2015-02-24

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

  8. Local instability driving extreme events in a pair of coupled chaotic electronic circuits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Gilson F; Di Lorenzo, Orlando; de Silans, Thierry Passerat; Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos; Cavalcante, Hugo L D de Souza

    2016-06-01

    For a long time, extreme events happening in complex systems, such as financial markets, earthquakes, and neurological networks, were thought to follow power-law size distributions. More recently, evidence suggests that in many systems the largest and rarest events differ from the other ones. They are dragon kings, outliers that make the distribution deviate from a power law in the tail. Understanding the processes of formation of extreme events and what circumstances lead to dragon kings or to a power-law distribution is an open question and it is a very important one to assess whether extreme events will occur too often in a specific system. In the particular system studied in this paper, we show that the rate of occurrence of dragon kings is controlled by the value of a parameter. The system under study here is composed of two nearly identical chaotic oscillators which fail to remain in a permanently synchronized state when coupled. We analyze the statistics of the desynchronization events in this specific example of two coupled chaotic electronic circuits and find that modifying a parameter associated to the local instability responsible for the loss of synchronization reduces the occurrence of dragon kings, while preserving the power-law distribution of small- to intermediate-size events with the same scaling exponent. Our results support the hypothesis that the dragon kings are caused by local instabilities in the phase space. PMID:27415257

  9. Local instability driving extreme events in a pair of coupled chaotic electronic circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Gilson F.; Di Lorenzo, Orlando; de Silans, Thierry Passerat; Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos; Cavalcante, Hugo L. D. de Souza

    2016-06-01

    For a long time, extreme events happening in complex systems, such as financial markets, earthquakes, and neurological networks, were thought to follow power-law size distributions. More recently, evidence suggests that in many systems the largest and rarest events differ from the other ones. They are dragon kings, outliers that make the distribution deviate from a power law in the tail. Understanding the processes of formation of extreme events and what circumstances lead to dragon kings or to a power-law distribution is an open question and it is a very important one to assess whether extreme events will occur too often in a specific system. In the particular system studied in this paper, we show that the rate of occurrence of dragon kings is controlled by the value of a parameter. The system under study here is composed of two nearly identical chaotic oscillators which fail to remain in a permanently synchronized state when coupled. We analyze the statistics of the desynchronization events in this specific example of two coupled chaotic electronic circuits and find that modifying a parameter associated to the local instability responsible for the loss of synchronization reduces the occurrence of dragon kings, while preserving the power-law distribution of small- to intermediate-size events with the same scaling exponent. Our results support the hypothesis that the dragon kings are caused by local instabilities in the phase space.

  10. Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K.; Otto, F. E. L.; Uhe, P.; Schaller, N.; Allen, M. R.; Hermanson, L.; Christidis, N.; McLean, P.; Cullen, H.

    2016-06-01

    Within the last decade, extreme weather event attribution has emerged as a new field of science and garnered increasing attention from the wider scientific community and the public. Numerous methods have been put forward to determine the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to individual extreme weather events. So far nearly all such analyses were done months after an event has happened. Here we present a new method which can assess the fraction of attributable risk of a severe weather event due to an external driver in real-time. The method builds on a large ensemble of atmosphere-only general circulation model simulations forced by seasonal forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Taking the England 2013/14 winter floods as an example, we demonstrate that the change in risk for heavy rainfall during the England floods due to anthropogenic climate change, is of similar magnitude using either observed or seasonal forecast SSTs. Testing the dynamic response of the model to the anomalous ocean state for January 2014, we find that observed SSTs are required to establish a discernible link between a particular SST pattern and an atmospheric response such as a shift in the jetstream in the model. For extreme events occurring under strongly anomalous SST patterns associated with known low-frequency climate modes, however, forecast SSTs can provide sufficient guidance to determine the dynamic contribution to the event.

  11. Variability of wind direction statistics of mean and extreme wind events over the Baltic Sea region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svenja E. Bierstedt

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available It is not clear to what extent the variations of seasonal mean winds and seasonal extreme winds are related. We investigate this relationship for the Baltic Sea area by analysing two regional climate gridded data sets, coastDat2 and HiResAFF, for the periods 1948–2009 and 1850–2009, respectively. Both data sets are based on regional climate simulations incorporating information from observations with the aim of reproducing the observed trajectory of climate variables. We compare the wind direction distribution of mean and extreme wind events by analysing seasonal wind roses. Mean wind directions display a more isotropic distribution, with a seasonally varying maximum. Extreme winds are much more constrained to south-westerly and westerly directions. The co-variability in time between the wind speed along the dominant directions of seasonal mean and the seasonal extreme winds was investigated using a complex correlation coefficient. This coefficient enables the simultaneous investigation of the co-variability of two-dimensional variables, for example wind. This coefficient is small for all seasons, indicating a very weak co-variance in time between seasonal mean and seasonal extremes. Hence, deviations in the direction of the mean wind are not a good indicator for deviations in the direction of extreme winds. We also assess the spatial structure and temporal variability of mean and extreme wind statistics using a principal component analysis. The principal components exhibit no significant long-term trends over the simulation periods, although multidecadal trends are detected for some periods and seasons. In recent decades, wintertime mean and extremes shifted to a more south-westerly direction. In the other seasons, no trends in wind directions are detected. We also investigate the possibility that seasonal patterns of extreme winds might persist over several adjacent seasons. No such persistent patterns can be identified, and hence extreme

  12. Exploring regional stakeholder needs and requirements in terms of Extreme Weather Event Attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, M.; Meinke, I.; Vanderlinden, J. P.; Touili, N.; Von Storch, H.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme event attribution has increasingly received attention in the scientific community. It may also serve decision-making at the regional level where much of the climate change impact mitigation takes place. Nevertheless, there is, to date, little known about the requirements of regional actors in terms of extreme event attribution. We have therefore analysed these at the example of regional decision-makers for climate change-related activities and/or concerned with storm surge risks at the German Baltic Sea and heat wave risks in the Greater Paris area. In order to explore if stakeholders find scientific knowledge from extreme event attribution useful and how this information might be relevant to their decision-making, we consulted a diverse set of actors engaged in the assessment, mitigation and communication of storm surge, heat wave, and climate change-related risks. Extreme event attribution knowledge was perceived to be most useful to public and political awareness-raising, but was of little or no relevance for the consulted stakeholders themselves. It was not acknowledged that it would support adaptation planning as sometimes argued in the literature. The consulted coastal protection, health, and urban adaptation planners rather needed reliable statements about possible future changes in extreme events than causal statements about past events. To enhance salience, a suitable product of event attribution should be linked to regional problems, vulnerabilities, and impacts of climate change. Given that the tolerance of uncertainty is rather low, most of the stakeholders also claimed that a suitable product of event attribution is to be received from a trusted "honest broker" and published rather later, but with smaller uncertainties than vice versa. Institutional mechanisms, like regional climate services, which enable and foster communication, translation and mediation across the boundaries between knowledge and action can help fulfill such requirements

  13. Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

    2006-12-01

    Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

  14. Deterioration modeling for condition assessment of flexible pavements considering extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi Tari, Yasamin; Shahini Shamsabadi, Salar; Birken, Ralf; Wang, Ming

    2015-04-01

    Accurate pavement management systems are essential for states' Department Of Transportation and roadway agencies to plan for cost-effective maintenance and repair (M and R) strategies. Pavement deterioration model is an imperative component of any pavement management system since the future budget and M and R plans would be developed based on the predicted pavement performance measures. It is crucial for the pavement deterioration models to consider the factors that significantly aggravate the pavement condition. While many studies have highlighted the impact of different environmental, load, and pavement's structure on the life cycle of the pavement, effect of extreme weather events such as Floods and Snow Storms have often been overlooked. In this study, a pavement deterioration model is proposed which would consider the effect of traffic loads, climate conditions, and extreme weather events. Climate, load and performance data has been compiled for over twenty years and for eight states using the Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) databases. A stepwise regression approach is undertaken to quantify the effect of the extreme weather events, along with other influential factors on pavement performance in terms of International Roughness Index (IRI). Final results rendered more than 90% correlation with the quantified impact values of extreme weather events.

  15. Artistic Creativity and Extreme Events: The Heterogeneous Impact of War on Composers’ Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borowiecki, Karol Jan

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between extreme events and creativity is rather ambiguous and yet of significance across several disciplines. The following study adds to the debate by analyzing the impact of war on individual artistic output by building on a global sample of 115 prominent composers born after...

  16. The Challenges from Extreme Climate Events for Sustainable Development in Amazonia: the Acre State Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, M. D. N. M.

    2015-12-01

    In the past ten years Acre State, located in Brazil´s southwestern Amazonia, has confronted sequential and severe extreme events in the form of droughts and floods. In particular, the droughts and forest fires of 2005 and 2010, the 2012 flood within Acre, the 2014 flood of the Madeira River which isolated Acre for two months from southern Brazil, and the most severe flooding throughout the state in 2015 shook the resilience of Acrean society. The accumulated costs of these events since 2005 have exceeded 300 million dollars. For the last 17 years, successive state administrations have been implementing a socio-environmental model of development that strives to link sustainable economic production with environmental conservation, particularly for small communities. In this context, extreme climate events have interfered significantly with this model, increasing the risks of failure. The impacts caused by these events on development in the state have been exacerbated by: a) limitations in monitoring; b) extreme events outside of Acre territory (Madeira River Flood) affecting transportation systems; c) absence of reliable information for decision-making; and d) bureaucratic and judicial impediments. Our experience in these events have led to the following needs for scientific input to reduce the risk of disasters: 1) better monitoring and forecasting of deforestation, fires, and hydro-meteorological variables; 2) ways to increase risk perception in communities; 3) approaches to involve more effectively local and regional populations in the response to disasters; 4) more accurate measurements of the economic and social damages caused by these disasters. We must improve adaptation to and mitigation of current and future extreme climate events and implement a robust civil defense, adequate to these new challenges.

  17. Solar Energetic Particle Event Associated with the 2012 July 23 Extreme Solar Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Bei; Luhmann, Janet G; Hu, Huidong; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei

    2016-01-01

    We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which STEREO and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 AU at STEREO A, was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as ACE and SOHO, suggestive of a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 AU. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. The examinations of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity and spectra also g...

  18. Emergency Response to and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events and Environmental Changes in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Liao, Yongfeng; Yang, Linsheng; Li, Hairong; Ye, Bixiong; Wang, Wuyi

    2016-03-01

    China has achieved impressive rapid economic growth over the past 30 years but accompanied by significant extreme weather events and environmental changes caused by global change and overfast urbanization. Using the absolute hazards index (AHI), we assessed the spatial distribution patterns and related health effects of 4 major extreme natural disasters, including drought, floods (landslides, mudslides), hails, and typhoons from 2000 to 2011 at the provincial level in China. The results showed that (1) central and south China were the most affected by the 4 natural disasters, and north China suffered less; (2) the provinces with higher AHI suffered most from total death, missing people, collapse, and emergently relocated population; (3) the present health emergency response system to disasters in China mainly lacks a multidisciplinary approach. In the concluding section of this article, suggestions on preparedness and rapid response to extreme health events from environmental changes are proposed. PMID:25246501

  19. Vulnerability and resilience of European ecosystems towards extreme climatic events: The ecosystem perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, Kirsten; Rolinski, Susanne; Walz, Ariane; von Bloh, Werner; van Oijen, Marcel; Davin, Edouard; Vieli, Barla; Kato, Tomomichi; Beer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Extremes of meteorological events may but do not have to cause damages in ecosystems. Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on the resilience and stability of ecosystems worldwide. So far, the impacts of trends and extremes of physical drivers on ecosystems have generally been studied regardless of the extremeness of the ecosystem response. We base our analysis on a Probabilistic Risk Assessment concept of Van Oijen et al. (2013) quantifying the vulnerability of vegetation dynamics in relation to the extremeness of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation or drought indices. Here, the definition of extreme, hazardous weather conditions is based on the ecosystem response. Instead of searching for extreme meteorological events, we define extreme ecosystem responses in terms of threshold levels of carbon uptake, and search for the meteorological conditions which are responsible. Having defined hazardous events in this way, we quantify the vulnerability or resilience of ecosystems to such hazards. We apply this approach on results of different vegetation models (such as LPJmL, Orchidee, JSBACH or CLM4) and the forest model BASFOR using climatic input for Europe from the WATCH-ERAI-REMO climate dataset with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Our results show that under current climatic conditions, the southern part of Europe already suffers severe heat and drought stress which is reflected in our approach by vulnerability values being high for precipitation, relatively high for the SPEI index, moderately high for temperature and quite high for the consecutive dry days. Thus, hazard occurrence is frequent enough to determine ecosystem vulnerability but this depends on the definition of the threshold of hazardous ecosystem responses. Vulnerability values in the Mediterranean increase towards the end of the 21st century for all models indicating that a tipping point towards drought damages has been reached for the chosen climate scenario.

  20. Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

  1. Extreme dissipation event due to plume collision in a turbulent convection cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Jörg; Scheel, Janet D.

    2016-10-01

    An extreme dissipation event in the bulk of a closed three-dimensional turbulent convection cell is found to be correlated with a strong reduction of the large-scale circulation flow in the system that happens at the same time as a plume emission event from the bottom plate. The reduction in the large-scale circulation opens the possibility for a nearly frontal collision of down- and upwelling plumes and the generation of a high-amplitude thermal dissipation layer in the bulk. This collision is locally connected to a subsequent high-amplitude energy dissipation event in the form of a strong shear layer. Our analysis illustrates the impact of transitions in the large-scale structures on extreme events at the smallest scales of the turbulence, a direct link that is observed in a flow with boundary layers. We also show that detection of extreme dissipation events which determine the far-tail statistics of the dissipation fields in the bulk requires long-time integrations of the equations of motion over at least a hundred convective time units.

  2. Extreme dissipation event due to plume collision in a turbulent convection cell

    CERN Document Server

    Schumacher, Joerg

    2016-01-01

    An extreme dissipation event in the bulk of a closed three-dimensional turbulent convection cell is found to be correlated with a strong reduction of the large-scale circulation flow in the system that happens at the same time as a plume emission event from the bottom plate. The reduction in the large-scale circulation opens the possibility for a nearly frontal collision of down- and upwelling plumes and the generation of a high-amplitude thermal dissipation layer in the bulk. This collision is locally connected to a subsequent high-amplitude energy dissipation event in the form of a strong shear layer. Our analysis illustrates the impact of transitions in the large-scale structures on extreme events at the smallest scales of the turbulence, a direct link that is observed in a flow with boundary layers. We also show that detection of extreme dissipation events which determine the far-tail statistics of the dissipation fields in the bulk requires long-time integrations of the equations of motion over at least ...

  3. Subsurface signatures and timing of extreme wave events along the southeast Indian coast

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rajesh R Nair; Madhav K Murari; C S Vijaya Lakshmi; Ilya Buynevich; Ron J Goble; P Srinivasan; S G N Murthy; Deshraj Trivedi; Suresh Chandra Kandpal; S M Hussain; D Sengupta; Ashok K Singhvi

    2011-10-01

    Written history’s limitation becomes apparent when attempting to document the predecessors of extreme coastal events in the Indian Ocean, from 550–700 years in Thailand and 1000 years in Indonesia. Detailed ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys in Mahabalipuram, southeast India, complemented with sedimentological analyses, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and optical dating provide strong evidence of extreme wave events during the past 3700 years. The diagnostic event signatures include the extent and elevation of the deposits, as well as morphologic similarity of buried erosional scarps to those reported in northern Sumatra region. Optical ages immediately overlying the imaged discontinuities that coincides with high concentration of heavy minerals date the erosional events to 340 ± 35, 350 ± 20, 490 ± 30, 880 ± 40, 1080 ± 60, 1175 ± 188, 2193 ± 266, 2235 ± 881, 2489 ± 293, 2450 ± 130, 2585 ± 609, 3710 ± 200 years ago. These evidences are crucial in reconstructing paleo extreme wave events and will pave the way for regional correlation of erosional horizons along the northern margin of Indian Ocean.

  4. Sea extreme events during the last millennium in north-east of Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Raji

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Moroccan Mediterranean coast is located in one of the most vulnerable area to extreme weather events or tsunami hazards. The objective of this research is to reconstruct the historical extreme submersion-events record using sea-induced deposits preserved in coastal lagoon. The Nador lagoon is the largest Moroccan lagoon (115 km2 located along the Western Mediterranean which presents a high cyclogenetic character and is exposed to tsunamis from Alboran Sea. The sandy barrier which separates the lagoon from the Mediterranean Sea is marked by many overwashes, which indicate how intensely has been exposed to the adverse sea events through history. Using the UWITEC coring platform, an undisturbed MC4.5 core (1.15 m long was successfully sampled in the studied lagoon. To identify sea extreme events, a multi-proxy approach was applied combining sedimentogical and geochemical data. The preliminary results show that the identified paleo-events are concentrated over the last 500 years. The challenge that remains now is to distinguish between the tsunami and the storm deposits.

  5. Large Scale Influences on Drought and Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collow, A.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Koster, R. D.; Eichmann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Observations indicate that extreme weather events are increasing and it is likely that this trend will continue through the 21st century. However, there is uncertainty and disagreement in recent literature regarding the mechanisms by which extreme temperature and precipitation events are increasing, including the suggestion that enhanced Arctic warming has resulted in an increase in blocking events and a more meridional flow. A steady gradual increase in heavy precipitation events has been observed in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States, while the Southwestern United States, particularly California, has experienced suppressed precipitation and an increase in consecutive dry days over the past few years. The frequency, intensity, and duration of heavy precipitation events in the Midwestern United States and Northeastern United States, as well as drought in the Southwestern United States are examined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2). Indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices representing drought and heavy precipitation events have been calculated using the MERRA-2 dataset for the period of 1980 through 2014. Trends in these indices are analyzed and the indices are compared to large scale circulations and climate modes using a composite and statistical linkages approach. Statistically significant correlations are present in the summer months between heavy precipitation events and meridional flow despite the lack of enhanced Arctic warming, contradicting the suggested mechanisms. Weaker, though still significant, correlations are observed in the winter months when the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the Midlatitudes.

  6. Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)

  7. Total ozone and Umkehr observations at Hoher Sonnblick 1994-2011: Climatology and extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzka, M.; Hadzimustafic, J.; Simic, S.

    2014-01-01

    Umkehr and total ozone measurements have been carried out at Hoher Sonnblick (47.05°N, 12.95°E; 3106 m above sea level) since 1994 with the Brewer MkIV #093 spectrophotometer. These measurements are used to investigate trends in total and vertically resolved ozone in the period 1994-2011 and for establishing an Umkehr climatology. A method to estimate daily thresholds for extreme events in total ozone (TO3) based on skewed log-Weibull distributions is presented and applied to the record. An analysis of the such defined extreme events reveals a significant decline in the number of low events, whereas the high events increased by about the same amount. However, no significant trend is observed in the magnitude of extreme events. Solar activity and equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine show weak to no correlation with vertically resolved ozone, presumably due to the record's limited extent, while tropopause pressure and quasi-biennial oscillation show a significant influence. Trend analysis of total and vertically resolved ozone indicates a significant increase in TO3 of 2.0% per decade since 1994, whereas no recovery is observed in the upper stratosphere. While ozone concentrations continue to decrease or stagnate in the upper stratosphere, the loss is overcompensated by large gains in the lowest layers during winter, leading to a significant overall increase in TO3. During events with extremely low TO3, the largest deficiencies are found in the bottommost layers with a marked seasonal component. The topmost layers mainly contribute to TO3 reductions during late winter and fall.

  8. The Definition and Classification of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PENG Jing-Bei; BUEH Cholaw

    2011-01-01

    Using the observed daily temperatures from 756 stations in China during the period from 1951 to 2009, extensive and persistent extreme cold events (EPECEs) were defined according to the following three steps: 1) a station was defined as an extreme cold station (ECS) if the observed temperature was lower than its 10th percentile threshold; 2) an extensive extreme cold event was determined to be present if the approximated area occupied by the ECSs was more than 10% of the total area of China (83rd percentile) on its starting day and the maximum area occupied by the ECSs was at least 20% of the total area of China (96th percentile); and 3) an EPECE was determined to be present if the extensive extreme cold event lasted for at least for eight days. 52 EPECEs were identified in this manner, and these identification results were also verified using other reliable data. On the basis of cluster analysis, five types of EPECEs were classified according to the spatial distribution of ECSs at their most extensive time over the course of the EPECE.

  9. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  10. Urban-Induced Mechanisms for an Extreme Rainfall Event in Beijing China: A Satellite Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menglin S. Jin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Using 1 km satellite remote sensing observations, this paper examines the clouds, aerosols, water vapor and surface skin temperature over Beijing to understand the possible urban system contributions to the extreme rainfall event on 21 July 2012 (i.e., 721 event. Remote sensing measurements, with the advantage of high spatial resolution and coverage, reveal three key urban-related mechanisms: (a the urban heat island effect (UHI resulted in strong surface convection and high level cloud cover over Beijing; (b urban aerosol amount peaked before the rainfall, which “seeded” the clouds and invigorated precipitation; and (c urban tall buildings provided additional lift for the air mass and provided heat at the underlying boundary to keep the rainfall system alive for a long duration precipitation (>10 hours. With the existing rainfall system moving from the northwest and abundant water vapor was transported from the southeast into Beijing, the urban canyon-lifting, aerosol, and UHI effects all enhanced this extreme rainfall event. This work proves that urban system is responsible, at least partly, for urban rainfall extremes and thus should be considered for urban extreme rainfall prediction in the future.

  11. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adelie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  12. Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of

  13. Nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem from extreme atmospheric N deposition events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, Sonal; Blaud, Aimeric; Osborn, A Mark; Press, Malcolm C; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2016-06-01

    Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from recently detected extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events in which up to 90% of the annual N deposition can occur in just a few days. We undertook the first assessment of the fate of N from extreme deposition in High Arctic tundra and are presenting the results from the whole ecosystem (15)N labelling experiment. In 2010, we simulated N depositions at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g Nm(-2)yr(-1), applied as (15)NH4(15)NO3 in Svalbard (79(°)N), during the summer. Separate applications of (15)NO3(-) and (15)NH4(+) were also made to determine the importance of N form in their retention. More than 95% of the total (15)N applied was recovered after one growing season (~90% after two), demonstrating a considerable capacity of Arctic tundra to retain N from these deposition events. Important sinks for the deposited N, regardless of its application rate or form, were non-vascular plants>vascular plants>organic soil>litter>mineral soil, suggesting that non-vascular plants could be the primary component of this ecosystem to undergo measurable changes due to N enrichment from extreme deposition events. Substantial retention of N by soil microbial biomass (70% and 39% of (15)N in organic and mineral horizon, respectively) during the initial partitioning demonstrated their capacity to act as effective buffers for N leaching. Between the two N forms, vascular plants (Salix polaris) in particular showed difference in their N recovery, incorporating four times greater (15)NO3(-) than (15)NH4(+), suggesting deposition rich in nitrate will impact them more. Overall, these findings show that despite the deposition rates being extreme in statistical terms, biologically they do not exceed the capacity of tundra to sequester pollutant N during the growing season. Therefore, current and future extreme events may represent a major source of eutrophication. PMID:26956177

  14. A mechanism for decadal variations in the frequency of extreme El Niño events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Cai, W.

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest source of Earth's climate variability on interannual time scales, has massive impacts on extreme weathers, agriculture and ecosystems, particularly during extreme El Niño events, such as the 1982/83 and 1997/98 episodes. However, the associated mechanism is not fully understood, hindering their forecasts, as attested by the false alarm of an extreme El Niño in 2014 predicted by many models. Recent studies have identified additional precursors beyond westerly wind anomalies and oceanic heat content along the equatorial Pacific, including the southwest Pacific southerly jets, which tend to occur strongly and concurrently with equatorial westerly anomalies during extreme El Niño, but NOT during weak El Niño events. Here we show that the concurrences of southwest Pacific southerlies, anomalous equatorial westerlies, and their relationship, are modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)/Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), even on daily timescales. During a positive phase of the PDO/IPO, occurrences of westerly wind events (WWEs), in the region between the Maritime continent and the eastern Pacific Ocean, are reinforced by the southwest Pacific southerly surges (SPSSs) in austral winter. By contrast, during a negative phase of the PDO/IPO, such SPSSs are not reinforcing WWEs; instead stronger SPSSs are associated with weaker WWEs. This interdecadal contrast in the relationship between SPSSs and WWEs contributes to the decadal variations in the frequency of extreme El Niño events. The associated mechanism will be discussed.

  15. The impacts of '05.6' extreme flood event on riverine carbon fluxes in Xijiang River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN HuiGuo; HAN JingTai; ZHANG ShuRong; LU XiXi

    2007-01-01

    An extreme flood event with a frequency of nearly 200 year occurred in June of 2005 in the Xijiang River,the main trunk stream of the Zhujiang River. Samples were systematically collected during the flood event, and water quality parameters, including total suspended sediment (TSS), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) were analyzed,and riverine carbon concentrations associated with its changing pattern through the flood process were discussed. These parameters reflect the changes in basin surface flow and subsurface flow during the flood. This flood event influenced annual flux estimations of POC, DOC, and DIC to great extents.Based on carbon flux estimations for the year 2005 and the flood event (June 21-28) in the Xijiang River, it was found that DIC, DOC, and POC fluxes during '05.6' flood event are 1.52x106 g.km-2.a-1,0.24x106 g.km-2.a-1, and 0.54x106 g.km-2.a-1, and account for 14.87%, 24.75% and 44.89% of the annual fluxes in 2005, respectively. The results suggested that carbon exports during extreme flood events had great contributions to the total carbon fluxes and composition of various carbon components, being important for accurate estimates of annual carbon fluxes in rivers with frequent floods.

  16. 'The plunger hypothesis' - predicting the tropospheric impact of extreme stratospheric events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Simon; Baldwin, Mark; Stephenson, David

    2016-04-01

    The coupling of events in the polar stratosphere to those in the polar troposphere is not currently understood. Extreme events in the stratosphere have been identified to have a lasting influence on the tropospheric circulation below for a period of up to 60 days. As such understanding the downward propagation of stratospheric circulation anomalies would be beneficial to surface forecasting. In this work we use the new 'plunger hypothesis', that mass fluxes into and out of the polar region compress the polar column of air - in a manner similar to a plunger - and cause pressure and temperature anomalies. We demonstrate how a quasigeostrophic assumption within this hypothesis allows for the prediction of mass fluxes across the boundary to the polar region given the pressure distribution at the boundary. This then allows for a prediction of how a given stratospheric event such as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) or a strong vortex event influences the polar troposphere. The performance of this hypothesis is tested; its usefulness in improving surface forecasts, its accuracy in response to stratospheric events, and its ability to predict downward propagation of Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in the aftermath of extreme stratospheric events. The link between this work and the PV inversion formulation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling is discussed. This work forms part of a three and a half year PhD project.

  17. Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2010-10-01

    Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more

  18. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  19. Ensuring Resilience of Natural Resources under Exposure to Extreme Climate Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brent Jacobs

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural resources directly support rural livelihoods and underpin much of the wealth of rural and regional Australia. Climate change manifesting as increasing frequency and or severity of extreme weather events poses a threat to sustainable management of natural resources because the recurrence of events may exceed the resilience of natural systems or the coping capacity of social systems. We report the findings of a series of participatory workshops with communities in eight discrete landscapes in South East New South Wales, Australia. The workshops focused on how natural resource management (NRM is considered in the Prevent-Prepare-Respond-Recover emergency management cycle. We found that NRM is generally considered only in relation to the protection of life and property and not for the intrinsic value of ecosystem services that support communities. We make three recommendations to improve NRM under extreme climate events. Firstly, the support to communities offered by emergency management agencies could be bolstered by guidance material co-produced with government NR agencies. Secondly, financial assistance from government should specifically target the restoration and maintenance of green infrastructure to avoid loss of social-ecological resilience. Thirdly, action by natural resource dependent communities should be encouraged and supported to better protect ecosystem services in preparation for future extreme events.

  20. Occurrence of extreme solar particle events: Assessment from historical proxy data

    CERN Document Server

    Usoskin, I G

    2012-01-01

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with the fluence of (>30 MeV) protons F30>10^{10} cm^{-2} is evaluated based on data of cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in terrestrial archives centennial-millennial time scales. Four potential candidates with F30=(1-1.5)x10^{10} cm^{-2} and no events with F30>2x10^{10} cm^{-2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved 10Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F30=(1-3)x10^{10} cm^{-2} are found and clearly no event with F30>5x10^{10} cm^{-2} (50-fold the SPE of 23-Feb-1956) occurring. This values serve as an observational upper limit for the strength of SPE on the time scale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates to extreme SPEs. We built a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. ...

  1. Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Peter J; Jian, Jun

    2011-12-13

    The uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the developing world, owing to the greater societal vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the descent into perpetual and structural rural poverty. We provide two examples of how probabilistic environmental prediction of extreme weather events can support dynamic adaptation. In the current climate era, we describe how short-term flood forecasts have been developed and implemented in Bangladesh. Forecasts of impending floods with horizons of 10 days are used to change agricultural practices and planning, store food and household items and evacuate those in peril. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were anticipated in 2007 and 2008, with broad actions taking place in advance of the floods, grossing agricultural and household savings measured in units of annual income. We argue that probabilistic environmental forecasts disseminated to an informed user community can reduce poverty caused by exposure to unanticipated extreme events. Second, it is also realized that not all decisions in the future can be made at the village level and that grand plans for water resource management require extensive planning and funding. Based on imperfect models and scenarios of economic and population growth, we further suggest that flood frequency and intensity will increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yangtze catchments as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase. However, irrespective of the climate-change scenario chosen, the availability of fresh water in the latter half of the twenty-first century seems to be dominated by population increases that far outweigh climate-change effects. Paradoxically, fresh water availability may become more critical if there is no climate change.

  2. Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

  3. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate change caused increased

  4. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate

  5. A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Understanding the impacts of climate extremes on the carbon cycle is important for quantifying the carbon-cycle climate feedback and highly relevant to climate change assessments. Climate extremes and fires can have severe regional effects, but a spatially explicit global impact assessment is still lacking. Here, we directly quantify spatiotemporal contiguous extreme anomalies in four global data sets of gross primary production (GPP) over the last 30 years. We find that positive and negative GPP extremes occurring on 7% of the spatiotemporal domain explain 78% of the global interannual variation in GPP and a significant fraction of variation in the net carbon flux. The largest thousand negative GPP extremes during 1982–2011 (4.3% of the data) account for a decrease in photosynthetic carbon uptake of about 3.5 Pg C yr−1, with most events being attributable to water scarcity. The results imply that it is essential to understand the nature and causes of extremes to understand current and future GPP variability. (paper)

  6. Variability of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Kostianoy, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    The Fourth (2007) and Fifth (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that in the XXI century, climate change will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme nature events such as: extreme precipitation and extreme high and low air temperatures. All these will lead to floods, droughts, fires, shallowing of rivers, lakes and water reservoirs, desertification, dust storms, melting of glaciers and permafrost, algal bloom events in the seas, lakes and water reservoirs. In its turn, these events will lead to chemical and biological contamination of water, land and air. These events will result in a deterioration of quality of life, significant financial loss due to damage to the houses, businesses, roads, agriculture, forestry, tourism, and in many cases they end in loss of life. These predictions are confirmed by the results of the studies presented in the RosHydromet First (2008) and Second (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation. Scientists predictions have been repeatedly confirmed in the last 15 years - floods in Novorossiysk (2002), Krymsk and Gelendzhik (2012), the Far East (2013), heat waves in 2010, unusually cold winter (February) of 2012 and unusually warm winter of 2013/2014 in the European territory of Russia. In this regard, analysis and forecasting of extreme climate events associated with climate change in the territory of Russia are an extremely important task. This task is complicated by the fact that modern atmospheric models used by IPCC and RosHydromet badly reproduce and predict the intensity of precipitation. We are analyzing meteorological reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR, 20th Century Reanalysis, ERA-20C, JRA-55) and satellite data (NASA and AVISO) on air, water and land temperature, rainfall, wind speed and cloud cover, water levels in seas and lakes, index of vegetation over the past 30-60 years

  7. Brief communication "An extreme meteorological event at the ISMAR oceanographic tower"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bastianini

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We report the evidence of a remarkable meteorological event in the Northern Adriatic Sea. Following the irruption of cold northerly air into the previously hot and humid eastern part of the Po valley, a strong instability developed with violent thunderstorms. At the ISMAR oceanographic tower, 15 km off the coast of the Venice lagoon, although no one was on board, the records of 6 July 2008 from the various instruments coherently show the presence of an extreme and short-lived event that we associate either to a water spout or, more likely, to the strong downdraft of a mesoscale convective system

  8. Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2014-05-01

    Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

  9. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  10. A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Robin; Ferro, Chris; Kwasniok, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Ensemble post-processing methods are used in operational weather forecasting to form probability distributions that represent forecast uncertainty. Several such methods have been proposed in the literature, including logistic regression, ensemble dressing, Bayesian model averaging and non-homogeneous Gaussian regression. We conduct an imperfect model experiment with the Lorenz 1996 model to investigate the performance of these methods, especially when forecasting the occurrence of rare extreme events. We show how flexible bias-correction schemes can be incorporated into these post-processing methods, and that allowing the bias correction to depend on the ensemble mean can yield considerable improvements in skill when forecasting extreme events. In the Lorenz 1996 setting, we find that ensemble dressing, Bayesian model averaging and non-homogeneous Gaussian regression perform similarly, while logistic regression performs less well.

  11. Resilience of coastal wetlands to extreme hydrologic events in Apalachicola Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahsin, Subrina; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Singh, Arvind

    2016-07-01

    Extreme hydrologic events such as hurricanes and droughts continuously threaten wetlands which provide key ecosystem services in coastal areas. The recovery time for vegetation after impact from these extreme events can be highly variable depending on the hazard type and intensity. Apalachicola Bay in Florida is home to a rich variety of saltwater and freshwater wetlands and is subject to a wide range of hydrologic hazards. Using spatiotemporal changes in Landsat-based empirical vegetation indices, we investigate the impact of hurricane and drought on both freshwater and saltwater wetlands from year 2000 to 2015 in Apalachicola Bay. Our results indicate that saltwater wetlands are more resilient than freshwater wetlands and suggest that in response to hurricanes, the coastal wetlands took almost a year to recover, while recovery following a drought period was observed after only a month.

  12. Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections

    OpenAIRE

    Beniston, Martin; Stephenson, David B.; Christensen, Ole B.; Ferro, Christopher A. T.; Frei, Christoph; Goyette, Stéphane; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Holt, Tom; Jylhä, Kirsti; Koffi, Brigitte; Palutikof, Jean; Schöll, Regina; Semmler, Tido; Woth, Katja

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961–90) and future (2071–2100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves – Regional surface warming causes the fre...

  13. Preface "Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning"

    OpenAIRE

    A. Loukas; Llasat, M.-C.; U. Ulbrich

    2010-01-01

    This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovat...

  14. Herding interactions as an opportunity to prevent extreme events in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kononovicius, Aleksejus; Gontis, Vygintas

    2015-07-01

    A characteristic feature of complex systems in general is a tight coupling between their constituent parts. In complex socio-economic systems this kind of behavior leads to self-organization, which may be both desirable (e.g. social cooperation) and undesirable (e.g. mass panic, financial "bubbles" or "crashes"). Abundance of the empirical data as well as general insights into the trading behavior enables the creation of simple agent-based models reproducing sophisticated statistical features of the financial markets. In this contribution we consider a possibility to prevent self-organized extreme events in financial market modeling its behavior using agent-based herding model, which reproduces main stylized facts of the financial markets. We show that introduction of agents with predefined fundamentalist trading behavior helps to significantly reduce the probability of the extreme price fluctuations events. We also investigate random trading, which was previously found to be promising extreme event prevention strategy, and find that its impact on the market has to be considered among other opportunities to stabilize the markets.

  15. Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

  16. Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilú Bouchon

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. The fishery started during the mid 1950s, and since then it has been highly dependent on natural stock fluctuations, due to the sensitivity of anchovy stocks to ocean-climate variability. The main driver of anchovy stock variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and three extreme ENSO warm events were recorded in 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1997–1998. This study investigates the evolution of coping strategies developed by the anchovy fisheries to deal with climate variability and extreme ENSO events. Results showed eight coping strategies to reduce impacts on the fishery. These included: decentralized installation of anchovy processing factories; simultaneous ownership of fishing fleet and processing factories; use of low-cost unloading facilities; opportunistic utilization of invading fish populations; low cost intensive monitoring; rapid flexible management; reduction of fishmeal price uncertainty through controlled production based on market demand; and decoupling of fishmeal prices from those of other protein-rich feed substitutes like soybean. This research shows that there are concrete lessons to be learned from successful adaptations to cope with climate change-related extreme climatic events that impact the supply of natural resources. The lessons can contribute to improved policies for coping with climate change in the commercial fishery sector.

  17. Modelling the extreme precipitation event over Madeira Island on 20 February 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Luna

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In the morning of the 20 February of 2010 an extreme precipitation event occurred over Madeira Island. This event triggered several flash floods and mudslides in the southern parts of the island, resulting in 42 confirmed deaths, 100 injured, and at least 8 people still missing. These extreme weather conditions were associated to a weather frontal system moving northeastwards embedded in a low pressure area centered in the Azores archipelago. This storm was one in a series of such storms that affected Portugal, Spain, Morocco and the Canary islands causing flooding and strong winds. These storms were bolstered by an unusually strong sea surface temperature gradient across the Atlantic Ocean.

    In this study, the WRF model is used to evaluate the intensity and predictability of this precipitation extreme event over the island. The synoptic/orographic nature of the precipitation is also evaluated, as well as the sensitivity of the model to horizontal resolution and cumulus parameterization. Orography was found to be the main factor explaining the occurrence, amplitude and phase of precipitation over the Island.

  18. Relationships between interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Alice; Laureanti, Nicole; Rodakoviski, Rodrigo

    2016-04-01

    This study aims to clarify the impact of interdecadal climate oscillations (periods of 8 years and longer) on the frequency of extreme precipitation events over South America in the monsoon season (austral spring and summer), and determine the influence of these oscillations on the daily precipitation frequency distribution. Interdecadal variability modes of precipitation during the monsoon season are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 60 years period 1950-2009. The main disclosed modes are robust, since they are reproduced for different periods. They can produce differences around 50% in monthly precipitation between opposite phases. Oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields associated with these modes indicate that they have physical basis. The first modes in spring and summer display highest correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) SST mode, while the second modes have strongest correlation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) SST mode. However, there are also other influences on these modes. As the most dramatic consequences of climate variability stem from its influence on the frequency of extreme precipitation events, it is important to also assess this influence, since variations in monthly or seasonal precipitation do not necessarily imply significant alterations in their extreme events. This study seeks to answer the questions: i) Do opposite phases of the main interdecadal modes of seasonal precipitation produce significant anomalies in the frequency of extreme events? ii) Does the interdecadal variability of the frequency of extreme events show similar spatial and temporal structure as the interdecadal variability of the seasonal precipitation? iii) Does the interdecadal variability change the daily precipitation probability distribution between opposite phases? iv) In this case, which ranges of daily precipitation are most affected? The significant anomalies of the extreme

  19. Temporal & Spatial Distribution of Extreme Heat Event in NYC Metro-Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvi, M. N.

    2012-12-01

    Recent studies indicate an increase in extreme summer weather events that may be linked to global warming. Heat wave intensity and frequency trends are a relatively unexplored topic that may demonstrate a more pronounced global warming manifestation than general climate change. Extreme heat events have adverse effects on both, ecosystems and human health, killing over 70,000 in 2003 alone. This study aims to validate that extreme heat events have been increasing in intensity, frequency, duration and affected-area over the past 40 years. The importance of properly defining heat events is stressed. As there is no exact definition, this study uses the adjusted NOAA National Weather Service definition, in terms of heat index, a reference to human comfort as defined by temperature and humidity. A heat wave is defined when maximum outside conditions of human comfort levels are present for consecutive days. Complex cities such as New York (NYC) are also expected to experience more intense heat events when considering the Urban Heat Island Effect. To observe the extent of recent heat events in NYC, heat event trends were produced using data from up to 59 NYCMetNet surface weather stations covering all five boroughs of the City. Map comparisons of heat events from recent years (2010-2012) demonstrate an increase in the effected metro areas with concentrated maximums in the northwest part of the city, attributed to the dense urban landscape and a converging wind zone. To investigate temporal trends of heat waves in NYC, four NOAA-NCDC weather stations in the NYC Metro Area were used, providing data from 1973-2012. The time series results indicate that heat wave maximum intensities are increasing in NYC as a function of time since 1973 at a rate of 1.2°C/decade. The temporal plots demonstrate an annual increase in maximum intensity, frequency, and average event duration that could be attributed to increasing heat island and global warming. Future studies will expand this

  20. Plant Responses to Extreme Climatic Events: A Field Test of Resilience Capacity at the Southern Range Edge

    OpenAIRE

    Asier Herrero; Regino Zamora

    2014-01-01

    The expected and already observed increment in frequency of extreme climatic events may result in severe vegetation shifts. However, stabilizing mechanisms promoting community resilience can buffer the lasting impact of extreme events. The present work analyzes the resilience of a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem after an extreme drought in 2005, examining shoot-growth and needle-length resistance and resilience of dominant tree and shrub species (Pinus sylvestris vs Juniperus communis, and P...

  1. Processes and Geomorphological Impacts of an Extreme Flash Flood Event in SE Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooke, J.

    2015-12-01

    A major flash flood event took place on 28 September, 2012 in SE Spain, resulting in 10 fatalities and much damage to infrastructure regionally. The flood affected long-term monitoring sites in two catchments in which morphological changes and flow dynamics of these ephemeral channels were being measured. Thus detailed data on channel state prior to the flood were available. The flood event in the Nogalte catchment was extreme in its peak flow, rate of rise and unit runoff. The catchment has steep relief and much bare soil under almond groves, resulting in high sediment supply. The channel is confined in places, but mostly wide and braided, composed of loose gravel and occupying much of the valley floor. Flow was spatially continuous, with high connectivity throughout the catchment. The flood effects were net depositional in the monitored sites, with massive sedimentation on the channel bars. Vegetation was destroyed. Bank erosion and destruction of embankments took place in some locations. Hydraulic calculations indicate very high velocities, stream power and Froude numbers. Modelling and field evidence demonstrate extremely high sediment competence and sediment loadings. The influence of the event dynamics on processes and net outcomes is discussed. The impacts are compared with other events in this and neighbouring catchments. Overall, the event in the Nogalte did not alter the morphology markedly in spite of its extreme characteristics. It is suggested that these valley floors are adapted to this type of flash flood but that flows of such force and magnitude need to be allowed for in management in such an environment.

  2. Extreme climate events over northern China during the last 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HANHui; GONGDaoyi

    2003-01-01

    Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northem China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3% /10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the fiequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of-15%/10a.

  3. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and attribution of extreme regional low temperature event

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    封泰晨; 张珂铨; 苏海晶; 王晓娟; 龚志强; 张文煜

    2015-01-01

    Based on an objective identification technique for regional low temperature event (OITRLTE), the daily minimum temperature in China has been detected from 1960 to 2013. During this period, there were 60 regional extreme low temperature events (ERLTEs), which are included in the 690 regional low temperature events (RLTEs). The 60 ERLTEs are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the last 50 years, the intensity of the ERLTEs has become weak;the number of lasted days has decreased;and, the affected area has become small. However, that situation has changed in this century. In terms of spatial distribution, the high intensity regions are mainly in Northern China while the high frequency regions concentrate in Central and Eastern China. According to the affected area of each event, the 60 ERLTEs are classified into six types. The atmospheric circulation background fields which correspond to these types are also analyzed. The results show that, influenced by stronger blocking highs of Ural and Lake Baikal, as well as stronger southward polar vortex and East Asia major trough at 500-hPa geopotential height, cold air from high latitudes is guided to move southward and abnormal northerly winds at 850 hPa makes the cold air blow into China along diverse paths, thereby forming different types of regional extreme low temperatures in winter.

  4. Tree-ring responses to extreme climate events as benchmarks for terrestrial dynamic vegetation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rammig

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate extremes can trigger exceptional responses in terrestrial ecosystems, for instance by altering growth or mortality rates. Effects of this kind are often manifested in reductions of the local net primary production (NPP. Investigating a set of European long-term data on annual radial tree growth confirms this pattern: we find that 53% of tree ring width (TRW indices are below one standard deviation, and up to 16% of the TRW values are below two standard deviations in years with extremely high temperatures and low precipitation. Based on these findings we investigate if climate driven patterns in long-term tree growth data may serve as benchmarks for state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models such as LPJmL. The model simulates NPP but not explicitly the radial tree ring growth, hence requiring a generic method to ensure an objective comparison. Here we propose an analysis scheme that quantifies the coincidence rate of climate extremes with some biotic responses (here TRW or simulated NPP. We find that the reduction in tree-ring width during drought extremes is lower than the corresponding reduction of simulated NPP. We identify ten extreme years during the 20th century in which both, model and measurements indicate high coincidence rates across Europe. However, we detect substantial regional differences in simulated and observed responses to extreme events. One explanation for this discrepancy could be that the tree-ring data have preferentially been sampled at more climatically stressed sites. The model-data difference is amplified by the fact that dynamic vegetation models are designed to simulate mean ecosystem responses at landscape or regional scale. However, we find that both model-data and measurements display carry-over effects from the previous year. We conclude that using radial tree growth is a good basis for generic model-benchmarks if the data are analyzed by scale-free measures such as coincidence analysis. Our study shows

  5. Large-scale Agroecosytem's Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events in the Missouri River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Smith, K.; Corzo, G.; Chacon, J.; Carrillo-Cruz, C.

    2015-12-01

    A major challenge for water, energy and food security relies on the capability of agroecosyststems and ecosystems to adapt to a changing climate and land use changes. The interdependency of these forcings, understood through our ability to monitor and model processes across scales, indicate the "depth" of their impact on agroecosystems and ecosystems, and consequently our ability to predict the system's ability to return to a "normal" state. We are particularly interested in explore two questions: (1) how hydrometeorological and climate extreme events (HCEs) affect sub-seasonal to interannual changes in evapotranspiration and soil moisture? And (2) how agroecosystems recover from the effect of such events. To address those questions we use the land surface hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer-Leaf Area Index (MODIS-LAI) over two time spans (1950-2013 using a seasonal fixed LAI cycle) and 2001-2013 (an 8-day MODIS-LAI). VIC is forced by daily/16th degree resolution precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, and wind speed. In this large-scale experiment, resiliency is defined by the capacity of a particular agroecosystem, represented by a grid cell's ET, SM, and LAI to return to a historical average. This broad, yet simplistic definition will contribute to identify the possible components and their scales involved in agroecosystems and ecosystems capacity to adapt to the incidence of HCEs and technologies used to intensify agriculture and diversify their use for food and energy production. Preliminary results show that dynamical changes in land use, tracked by MODIS data, require larger time spans to address properly the influence of technologic improvements in crop production as well as the competition for land for biofuel vs. food production. On the other hand, fixed seasonal changes in land use allow us just to identify hydrologic changes mainly due to climate variability.

  6. Non-parametric frequency analysis of extreme values for integrated disaster management considering probable maximum events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takara, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a non-parametric frequency analysis method for hydrological extreme-value samples with a size larger than 100, verifying the estimation accuracy with a computer intensive statistics (CIS) resampling such as the bootstrap. Probable maximum values are also incorporated into the analysis for extreme events larger than a design level of flood control. Traditional parametric frequency analysis methods of extreme values include the following steps: Step 1: Collecting and checking extreme-value data; Step 2: Enumerating probability distributions that would be fitted well to the data; Step 3: Parameter estimation; Step 4: Testing goodness of fit; Step 5: Checking the variability of quantile (T-year event) estimates by the jackknife resampling method; and Step_6: Selection of the best distribution (final model). The non-parametric method (NPM) proposed here can skip Steps 2, 3, 4 and 6. Comparing traditional parameter methods (PM) with the NPM, this paper shows that PM often underestimates 100-year quantiles for annual maximum rainfall samples with records of more than 100 years. Overestimation examples are also demonstrated. The bootstrap resampling can do bias correction for the NPM and can also give the estimation accuracy as the bootstrap standard error. This NPM has advantages to avoid various difficulties in above-mentioned steps in the traditional PM. Probable maximum events are also incorporated into the NPM as an upper bound of the hydrological variable. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) can be a new parameter value combined with the NPM. An idea how to incorporate these values into frequency analysis is proposed for better management of disasters that exceed the design level. The idea stimulates more integrated approach by geoscientists and statisticians as well as encourages practitioners to consider the worst cases of disasters in their disaster management planning and practices.

  7. Spatial patterns of sediment dynamics within a medium-sized watershed over an extreme storm event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Peng; Zhang, Zhirou

    2016-08-01

    In this study, we quantified spatial patterns of sediment dynamics in a watershed of 311 km2 over an extreme storm event using watershed modeling and statistical analyses. First, we calibrated a watershed model, Dynamic Watershed Simulation Model (DWSM) by comparing the predicted with calculated hydrograph and sedigraph at the outlet for this event. Then we predicted values of event runoff volume (V), peak flow (Qpeak), and two types of event sediment yields for lumped morphological units that contain 42 overland elements and 21 channel segments within the study watershed. Two overland elements and the connected channel segment form a first-order subwatershed, several of which constitute a larger nested subwatershed. Next we examined (i) the relationships between these variables and area (A), precipitation (P), mean slope (S), soil erodibility factor, and percent of crop and pasture lands for all overland elements (i.e., the small spatial scale, SSS), and (ii) those between sediment yield, Qpeak, A, P, and event runoff depth (h) for the first-order and nested subwatersheds along two main creeks of the study watershed (i.e., the larger spatial scales, LSS). We found that at the SSS, sediment yield was nonlinearly well related to A and P, but not Qpeak and h; whereas at the LSS, linear relationships between sediment yield and Qpeak existed, so did the Qpeak-A, and Qpeak-P relationships. This linearity suggests the increased connectivity from the SSS to LSS, which was caused by ignorance of channel processes within overland elements. It also implies that sediment was transported at capacity during the extreme event. So controlling sediment supply from the most erodible overland elements may not efficiently reduce the downstream sediment load.

  8. Role of Anomalous States of Upper Tropospheric Circulation on Extremely Dry and Wet Summer Monsoon Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, S.; Koike, T.; Nishii, K.; Shrestha, M.

    2011-12-01

    Seasonal changes in wind pattern, monsoon, sometimes result in severe droughts and intense flooding in many parts of the world including South Asian countries like Pakistan. The livelihood of a vast population in Pakistan depends on agriculture and land use is strongly influenced by water-based ecosystems that depend on the monsoon rains. Furthermore, climate change studies undertaken so far reveal that action is essential in order to prevent long term damage to water cycle and thus of great concern to the community and stakeholders. Pakistan Summer Monsoon (PSM) is affected by both the disturbances from the tropical and the extratropical regions; however there is lack of understanding of physical mechanisms of PSM compared to other regional studies i.e. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and South-East Asian Monsoon (SEAM). In our study, we applied heat and vorticity budgets, and wave train analysis to reveal the mechanisms of the extremely dry and wet PSM events associated with the anomalous upper tropospheric conditions. We found that the extremely dry (wet) PSM events were closely related with the anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) upper-tropospheric circulation around northwest of Pakistan, and mid-upper tropospheric cooling (warming) anomaly around Pakistan and to its north/northwest. We also found in addition to Rossby wave response due to the suppressed (enhanced) convective activities around monsoon regions, the midlatitude wave energy propagation emanating around cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly around northwestern Atlantic, northeastern Atlantic, Europe or Mediterranean regions induced/reinforced/maintained the anomalous upper tropospheric cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation around northwest of Pakistan during extremely dry (wet) PSM events. Therefore, devastating drought (flood) events over the PSM region resulting from weak (strong) convection anomalies are induced by both the tropical and extratropical processes.

  9. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  10. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-07-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

  11. Granularity and textural analysis as a proxy for extreme wave events in southeast coast of India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C S Vijaya Lakshmi; P Srinivasan; S G N Murthy; Deshraj Trivedi; Rajesh R Nair

    2010-06-01

    Extreme wave events of 1000 and 1500 years (radiocarbon ages) have been recently reported in Mahabalipuram region, southeast coast of India. Subsequently, we carried out extensive sedimentological analysis in regions covering a total lateral coverage of 12 km with a new archeological site as the central portion of the study area. Twelve trenches in shore normal profiles exhibit landward thinning sequences as well as upward fining sequences confirming with the global signatures of extreme wave events. The sediment size ranges from fine-to-medium and moderately well sorted-to-well sorted, and exhibit positive skewness with platykurtic-to-leptokurtic nature. We now propose the abrupt winnowing or back and forth motion including unidirectional transport of these deposited sediments, which results in positive skewness. Textural analyses derived from scanning electron microscope studies (SEM) demonstrate the alteration produced, in the ilmenite mineral with vivid presence of pits and crescents with deformation observed on the surface due to extreme wave activities. This is further confirmed with the predominance of high-density mineral such as magnetite (5.2) and other heavy minerals in these deposits inferred the high-intensity of the reworking process of the beach shelf sediments.

  12. Vegetation response to extreme climate events on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change has led to more frequent extreme winters (aka, dzud) and summer droughts on the Mongolian Plateau during the last decade. Among these events, the 2000–2002 combined summer drought–dzud and 2010 dzud were the most severe on vegetation. We examined the vegetation response to these extremes through the past decade across the Mongolian Plateau as compared to decadal means. We first assessed the severity and extent of drought using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). We then examined the effects of drought by mapping anomalies in vegetation indices (EVI, EVI2) and land surface temperature derived from MODIS and AVHRR for the period of 2000–2010. We found that the standardized anomalies of vegetation indices exhibited positively skewed frequency distributions in dry years, which were more common for the desert biome than for grasslands. For the desert biome, the dry years (2000–2001, 2005 and 2009) were characterized by negative anomalies with peak values between −1.5 and −0.5 and were statistically different (P 2 = 65 and 60, p 2 = 53, p < 0.05). Our results showed significant differences in the responses to extreme climatic events (summer drought and dzud) between the desert and grassland biomes on the Plateau. (letter)

  13. Quantifying the US Crop Yield in Response to Extreme Climatic Events from 1948 to 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The increasingly frequent and severe extreme climatic events (ECEs) under climate changes will negatively affect crop productivity and threat the global food security. Reliable forecast of crop yields response to those ECEs is a prerequisite for developing strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress of quantifying such responses with ecosystem models has been slow. In this study, we first review existing algorithms of yields response to ECEs among major crops (i.e., Corn, Wheat and Soybean) for the United States from a set of process-based crop models. These algorithms are aggregated into four categories of ECEs: drought, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, and frost. Species-specific ECEs thresholds as tipping point of crop yield response curve are examined. Four constraint scalar functions derived for each category of ECEs are then added to an agricultural ecosystem model, CLM-AG, respectively. The revised model is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 to estimate the US major crop yields, and then evaluated with county-level yield statistics from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). We also include MODIS NPP product as a reference for the period 2001-2013. Our study will help to identify gaps in capturing yield response to ECEs with contemporary crop models, and provide a guide on developing the new generation of crop models to account for the effects of more future extreme climate events.

  14. Extreme meteorological events in nuclear power plant siting, excluding tropical cyclones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Safety Guide deals with the extremes of meteorological variables and the extreme meteorological phenomena in accordance with the general criteria of the Code. The Guide outlines a procedure based on the following steps: (1) The meteorological phenomena and variables are described and classified, according to their effects on safety. (2) Data sources are identified, and data are collected. (3) Meteorological variables such as air temperature are analysed to determine their design bases; and the design basis event in case of phenomena such as the design basis tornado is identified. (4) As appropriate, the design basis value for the variable, or the design basis for the phenomena (such as pressure drop and maximum wind speed of the design basis tornado), is defined. In the following sections, the general procedure for evaluating the design bases of extreme meteorological variables and phenomena is outlined. The procedure is then presented in detail for each variable or phenomenon considered. The variables characterizing the meteorological environment dealt with in this Guide are wind speed, atmospheric precipitation, and temperature. The extreme meteorological phenomena discussed here are the tornado and, briefly, the tropical cyclone, which is discussed more extensively in the Safety Guide on Design Basis Tropical Cyclone for Nuclear Power Plants (IAEA Safety Series No. 50-SG-S11B)

  15. An extreme internal solitary wave event observed in the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Chen, Zhaohui; Zhao, Wei; Zhang, Zhiwei; Zhou, Chun; Yang, Qingxuan; Tian, Jiwei

    2016-01-01

    With characteristics of large amplitude and strong current, internal solitary wave (ISW) is a major hazard to marine engineering and submarine navigation; it also has significant impacts on marine ecosystems and fishery activity. Among the world oceans, ISWs are particular active in the northern South China Sea (SCS). In this spirit, the SCS Internal Wave Experiment has been conducted since March 2010 using subsurface mooring array. Here, we report an extreme ISW captured on 4 December 2013 with a maximum amplitude of 240 m and a peak westward current velocity of 2.55 m/s. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the strongest ISW of the world oceans on record. Full-depth measurements also revealed notable impacts of the extreme ISW on deep-ocean currents and thermal structures. Concurrent mooring measurements near Batan Island showed that the powerful semidiurnal internal tide generation in the Luzon Strait was likely responsible for the occurrence of the extreme ISW event. Based on the HYCOM data-assimilation product, we speculate that the strong stratification around Batan Island related to the strengthening Kuroshio may have contributed to the formation of the extreme ISW. PMID:27444063

  16. An extreme internal solitary wave event observed in the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Chen, Zhaohui; Zhao, Wei; Zhang, Zhiwei; Zhou, Chun; Yang, Qingxuan; Tian, Jiwei

    2016-07-01

    With characteristics of large amplitude and strong current, internal solitary wave (ISW) is a major hazard to marine engineering and submarine navigation; it also has significant impacts on marine ecosystems and fishery activity. Among the world oceans, ISWs are particular active in the northern South China Sea (SCS). In this spirit, the SCS Internal Wave Experiment has been conducted since March 2010 using subsurface mooring array. Here, we report an extreme ISW captured on 4 December 2013 with a maximum amplitude of 240 m and a peak westward current velocity of 2.55 m/s. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the strongest ISW of the world oceans on record. Full-depth measurements also revealed notable impacts of the extreme ISW on deep-ocean currents and thermal structures. Concurrent mooring measurements near Batan Island showed that the powerful semidiurnal internal tide generation in the Luzon Strait was likely responsible for the occurrence of the extreme ISW event. Based on the HYCOM data-assimilation product, we speculate that the strong stratification around Batan Island related to the strengthening Kuroshio may have contributed to the formation of the extreme ISW.

  17. Extreme external events in the design and assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of feedback experience from the operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the past 20 years shows few cases of degradation of the plant safety initiated by external events. However, when these have occurred, the consequences have been serious, involving challenges to the defence in depth of the plant. Part of the problem involves the definition of the design basis parameters for some scenarios and differences among regulators on the methods for the protection of operational NPPs in relation to external events. This results in different engineering practices in Member States for the siting and design of NPPs. In the framework of the present revision of the IAEA safety standards on siting and design of NPPs, many initiatives have been implemented by the IAEA in recent years aimed at a systematic analysis of engineering practices in Member States. The most recent event in this connection was a Technical Committee Meeting (TCM) on Structural Safety of NPPs in Relation to Extreme External Loads, organized with the specific objective of evaluating the state of the art of NPP design in relation to external events. Such an analysis provided a technical background for the development of a common technical basis for an integrated approach in site evaluation, design and operation in relation to extreme external events. The scope included new and existing plants, as they are required to meet the same general safety principles, in spite of their peculiarities. The objective of this publication is to provide a technical background to drive regulators, plant owners and designers in the definition of a consistent strategy in selected safety issues on site evaluation, design and operation in relation to extreme external events. This publication is also of support to the IAEA in the development of safety standards since many Safety Guides dealing with related topics are under periodic review. Four major tasks were identified to comply with these general objectives

  18. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  19. The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabina, Nicholas S; Baskett, Marissa L; Gross, Kevin

    2015-09-01

    Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additionally explored how coral traits and competition with macroalgae mediate changes in bleaching regimes. Our results predict that severe bleaching events reduce coral persistence more than frequent bleaching. Corals with low adult mortality and high growth rates are successful when bleaching is mild, but bleaching resistance is necessary to persist when bleaching is severe, regardless of frequency. The existence of macroalgae-dominated stable states reduces coral persistence and changes the relative importance of coral traits. Building on previous studies, our results predict that management efforts may need to prioritize protection of "weaker" corals with high adult mortality when bleaching is mild, and protection of "stronger" corals with high bleaching resistance when bleaching is severe. In summary, future reef projections and conservation targets depend on both local bleaching regimes and biodiversity. PMID:26552262

  20. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-06-27

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability.

  1. Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

    2016-06-01

    The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

  2. Application of a Coupled WRF-Hydro Model for Extreme Flood Events in the Mediterranean Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredj, Erick; Givati, Amir

    2015-04-01

    More accurate simulation of precipitation and streamflow is a challenge that can be addressed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the hydrological model coupling extension package (WRF-Hydro).This is demonstrated for the country of Israel and surrounding regions. Simulations from the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system were verified against measurements from rain gauges and hydrometric stations in the domain for the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters (wet seasons). These periods were characterized by many punctuated hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic events, including both severe drought and extreme floods events. The WRF model simulations were initialized with 0.5 degree NOAA/NCEP GFS model data. The model domain was set up with 3 domains, up to 3km grid spacing resolution. The model configuration used here constitutes a fully distributed, 3-dimensional, variably-saturated surface and subsurface flow model. Application of terrain routing and, subsequently, channel and reservoir routing functions, to the uni-dimensional NOAA land surface model was motivated by the need to account for increased complexity in land surface states and fluxes and to provide a more physically-realistic conceptualization of terrestrial hydrologic processes. The simulation results indicated a good agreement with actual peak discharges for extreme flood events and for full hydrographs. Specifically the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro model as configured in this study shows improvement in simulated precipitation over one way WRF precipitation simulations. The correlation between the observed and the simulated precipitation using the fully coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system was higher than the standalone WRF model, especially for convective precipitation events that affect arid regions in the domain. The results suggest that the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system has potential for flood forecasting and flood warning purposes at 0-72 hour lead times for large cool season storm

  3. Forecasting extreme events in collective dynamics: an analytic signal approach to detecting discrete scale invariance

    CERN Document Server

    Viswanathan, G M

    2006-01-01

    A challenging problem in physics concerns the possibility of forecasting rare but extreme phenomena such as large earthquakes, financial market crashes, and material rupture. A promising line of research involves the early detection of precursory log-periodic oscillations to help forecast extreme events in collective phenomena where discrete scale invariance plays an important role. Here I investigate two distinct approaches towards the general problem of how to detect log-periodic oscillations in arbitrary time series without prior knowledge of the location of the moveable singularity. I first show that the problem has a definite solution in Fourier space, however the technique involved requires an unrealistically large signal to noise ratio. I then show that the quadrature signal obtained via analytic continuation onto the imaginary axis, using the Hilbert transform, necessarily retains the log-periodicities found in the original signal. This finding allows the development of a new method of detecting log-p...

  4. LISA extreme-mass-ratio inspiral events as probes of the black hole mass function

    CERN Document Server

    Gair, Jonathan R; Volonteri, Marta

    2010-01-01

    One of the sources of gravitational waves for the proposed space-based gravitational wave detector, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), are the inspirals of compact objects into supermassive black holes in the centres of galaxies - extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). Using LISA observations, we will be able to measure the parameters of each EMRI system detected to very high precision. However, the statistics of the set of EMRI events observed by LISA will be more important in constraining astrophysical models than extremely precise measurements for individual systems. The black holes to which LISA is most sensitive are in a mass range that is difficult to probe using other techniques, so LISA provides an almost unique window onto these objects. In this paper we explore, using Bayesian techniques, the constraints that LISA EMRI observations can place on the mass function of black holes at low redshift. We describe a general framework for approaching inference of this type --- using multiple observ...

  5. Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidokhti, Abbas-Ali A.; Gharaylou, Maryam; Pegahfar, Nafiseh; Sabetghadam, Samaneh; Rezazadeh, Maryam

    2016-03-01

    Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity is low in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

  6. Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abbas-Ali A Bidokhti; Maryam Gharaylou; Nafiseh Pegahfar; Samaneh Sabetghadam; Maryam Rezazadeh

    2016-03-01

    Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity islow in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

  7. Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

    2013-05-01

    The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a

  8. Daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida LR

    2014-05-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during the extended winter months have major socio-economic impacts such as floods, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems with Atlantic origin, although some extreme events in summer/autumn months can be linked to Mediterranean low pressure systems. Quite often these events are evaluated on a casuistic base and making use of data from relatively few stations. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events is presented here based on the extensive use of the most comprehensive database of daily gridded precipitation available for the Iberian Peninsula (IB02) and spanning from 1950 to 2008, with a resolution of 0.2° (approximately 16 x 22 km at latitude 40°N), for a total of 1673 pixels. This database is based on a dense network of rain gauges, combining two national data sets, 'Spain02' for peninsular Spain and Balearic islands, and 'PT02' for mainland Portugal, with a total of more than two thousand stations over Spain and four hundred stations over Portugal, all quality-controlled and homogenized. Through this objective method for ranking daily precipitation events the magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point and taking into account the daily precipitation normalised departure from climatology. Different precipitation rankings are presented considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are the water vapour (WV) core section of the broader warm conveyor belt occurring over the oceans along the warm sector of extra-tropical cyclones. They are usually W-E oriented steered by pre-frontal low level jets along the trailing cold front and subsequently feed the precipitation in the extra-tropical cyclones. They are relatively narrow regions of concentrated WV

  9. Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in

  10. Cosmic rays Monte Carlo simulations for the Extreme Energy Events Project

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, M; Aiola, S; Antolini, R; Avanzini, C; Baldini Ferroli, R; Bencivenni, G; Bossini, E; Bressan, E; Chiavassa, A; Cicalò, C; Cifarelli, L; Coccia, E; De Gruttola, D; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D'Incecco, M; Dreucci, M; Fabbri, F L; Frolov, V; Garbini, M; Gemme, G; Gnesi, I; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadou, D; La Rocca, P; Li, S; Librizzi, F; Maggiora, A; Massai, M; Miozzi, S; Panareo, M; Paoletti, R; Perasso, L; Pilo, F; Piragino, G; Regano, A; Riggi, F; Righini, G C; Sartorelli, G; Scapparone, E; Scribano, A; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Siddi, E; Spandre, G; Squarcia, S; Taiuti, M; Tosello, F; Votano, L; Williams, M C S; Yánez, G; Zichichi, A; Zuyeuski, R

    2014-01-01

    The Extreme Energy Events Project (EEE Project) is an innovative experiment to study very high energy cosmic rays by means of the detection of the associated air shower muon component. It consists of a network of tracking detectors installed inside Italian High Schools. Each tracking detector, called EEE telescope, is composed of three Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPCs). At present, 43 telescopes are installed and taking data, opening the way for the detection of far away coincidences over a total area of about 3 × 10 5 km 2 . In this paper we present the Monte Carlo simulations that have been performed to predict the expected coincidence rate between distant EEE telescopes.

  11. Cosmic rays Monte Carlo simulations for the Extreme Energy Events Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbrescia, M.; Agocs, A.; Aiola, S.; Antolini, R.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Bressan, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalò, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; De Gruttola, D.; De Pasquale, S.; Di Giovanni, A.; D'Incecco, M.; Dreucci, M.; Fabbri, F. L.; Frolov, V.; Garbini, M.; Gemme, G.; Gnesi, I.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; La Rocca, P.; Li, S.; Librizzi, F.; Maggiora, A.; Massai, M.; Miozzi, S.; Panareo, M.; Paoletti, R.; Perasso, L.; Pilo, F.; Piragino, G.; Regano, A.; Riggi, F.; Righini, G. C.; Sartorelli, G.; Scapparone, E.; Scribano, A.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Siddi, E.; Spandre, G.; Squarcia, S.; Taiuti, M.; Tosello, F.; Votano, L.; Williams, M. C. S.; Yánez, G.; Zichichi, A.; Zuyeuski, R.

    2014-08-01

    The Extreme Energy Events Project (EEE Project) is an innovative experiment to study very high energy cosmic rays by means of the detection of the associated air shower muon component. It consists of a network of tracking detectors installed inside Italian High Schools. Each tracking detector, called EEE telescope, is composed of three Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPCs). At present, 43 telescopes are installed and taking data, opening the way for the detection of far away coincidences over a total area of about 3 × 105 km2. In this paper we present the Monte Carlo simulations that have been performed to predict the expected coincidence rate between distant EEE telescopes.

  12. OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS: ASSESSMENT FROM HISTORICAL PROXY DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Usoskin, Ilya G. [Sodankylae Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit) and Department of Physical Sciences, University of Oulu, FIN-90014 Oulu (Finland); Kovaltsov, Gennady A., E-mail: ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of RAS, 194021 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-09-20

    The probability of occurrence of extreme solar particle events (SPEs) with proton fluence (>30 MeV) F{sub 30} {>=} 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} is evaluated based on data on the cosmogenic isotopes {sup 14}C and {sup 10}Be in terrestrial archives covering centennial-millennial timescales. Four potential candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-1.5) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} and no events with F{sub 30} > 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are identified since 1400 AD in the annually resolved {sup 10}Be data. A strong SPE related to the Carrington flare of 1859 AD is not supported by the data. For the last 11,400 years, 19 SPE candidates with F{sub 30} = (1-3) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} are found and clearly no event with F{sub 30} > 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} (50 times the SPE of 1956 February 23) has occurred. These values serve as observational upper limits on the strength of SPEs on the timescale of tens of millennia. Two events, ca. 780 and 1460 AD, appear in different data series making them strong candidates for extreme SPEs. We build a distribution of the occurrence probability of extreme SPEs, providing a new strict observational constraint. Practical limits can be set as F{sub 30} Almost-Equal-To 1, 2-3, and 5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} cm{sup -2} for occurrence probabilities Almost-Equal-To 10{sup -2}, 10{sup -3}, and 10{sup -4} yr{sup -1}, respectively. Because of the uncertainties, our results should be interpreted as a conservative upper limit on the SPE occurrence near Earth. The mean solar energetic particle (SEP) flux is evaluated as Almost-Equal-To 40 (cm{sup 2} s){sup -1}, in agreement with estimates from lunar rocks. On average, extreme SPEs contribute about 10% to the total SEP fluence.

  13. Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O

    2010-04-23

    Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150-200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

  14. The impact of extreme flooding events and anthropogenic stressors on the macrobenthic communities’ dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, P. G.; Raffaelli, D.; Lillebø, A. I.; Verdelhos, T.; Pardal, M. A.

    2008-02-01

    Marine and coastal environments are among the most ecologically and socio-economically important habitats on Earth. However, climate change associated with a variety of anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) may interact to produce combined impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, which in turn will have profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. Over period 1980-2000, the environment of the Mondego estuary, Portugal, has deteriorated through eutrophication, manifested in the replacement of seagrasses by opportunistic macroalgae, degradation of water quality and increased turbidity, and the system has also experienced extreme flood events. A restoration plan was implemented in 1998 which aimed to reverse the eutrophication effects, especially to restore the original natural seagrass ( Zostera noltii) community. This paper explores the interactions between extreme weather events (e.g. intense floods) and anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) on the dynamics of the macrobenthic assemblages and the socio-economic implications that follow. We found that during the previous decade, the intensification of extreme flooding events had significant effects on the structure and functioning of macrobenthic communities, specifically a decline in total biomass, a decline in species richness and a decline in suspension feeders. However, the earlier eutrophication process also strongly modified the macrobenthic community, seen as a decline in species richness, increase in detritivores and a decline in herbivores together with a significant increase in small deposit-feeding polychaetes. After the implementation of the management plan, macrobenthic assemblages seemed to be recovering from eutrophication, but it is argued here that those earlier impacts reduced system stability and the resilience of the macrobenthic assemblages, so that its ability to cope with other stressors was compromised. Thus

  15. The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

    2013-12-01

    The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

  16. Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

    2016-04-01

    How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these

  17. Extreme monsoon precipitation events over South Asia in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, K.; Sabin, T. P.; Mujumdar, M.; Priya, P.

    2012-04-01

    The recent series of flood events over Pakistan and Northwest India during the monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011 are examples of extreme phenomena during the last century that have evoked considerable interest among various scientific communities. One of the causes for the 2010 intense precipitation over Pakistan has been attributed to the interaction between the tropical monsoon surge and southward intruding extra-tropical circulation anomalies (Hong et al. 2011). On the other hand, it has been hypothesized by Mujumdar et al. (2012) that the westward shift of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) in response to the strong La Nina conditions during 2010 was instrumental in altering the convection and circulation over the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon trough region, which in turn sustained the moist convective activities over Indo-Pak through transport of moisture from the Arabian Sea. However several aspects of the dynamics of these intense monsoon precipitation events are not adequately understood especially when atmospheric convective instabilities are expected to amplify in the backdrop of the ongoing global warming. Here, we have carried out a set of ensemble simulation experiments using a high-resolution global climate model to understand the evolution of intense monsoon precipitation events over Pakistan and Northwest India as in 2010. The results based on the model simulations indicate that while interactions among the WPSH, the South Asian monsoon trough and sub-tropical westerlies are conducive for development of convective instabilities over the Indo-Pak region, the local convective activities are found to significantly amplify in response to the large build up of moisture associated with global warming. The present results have implications in understanding how extreme monsoon precipitation events in the Indo-Pak region might have responded to past climatic variations.

  18. The Effects of Model Resolution on the Simulation of Regional Climate Extreme Events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) was used to simulate extreme heavy rainfall events over the Yangtze River Basin in June 1999. The effects of model's horizontal and vertical resolution on the extreme climate events were investigated in detail. In principle, the model was able to characterize the spatial distribution of monthly heavy precipitation. The results indicated that the increase in horizontal resolution could reduce the bias of the modeled heavy rain and reasonably simulate the change of daily precipitation during the study period. A finer vertical resolution led to obviously improve rainfall simulations with smaller biases, and hence, better resolve heavy rainfall events. The increase in both horizontal and vertical resolution could produce better predictions of heavy rainfall events. Not only the rainfall simulation altered in the cases of different horizontal and vertical grid spacing, but also other meteorological fields demonstrated diverse variations in terms of resolution change in the model. An evident improvement in the simulated sea level pressure resulted from the increase of horizontal resolution, but the simulation was insensitive to vertical grid spacing. The increase in vertical resolution could enhance the simulation of surface temperature as well as atmospheric circulation at low levels, while the simulation of circulation at middle and upper levels were found to be much less dependent on changing resolution. In addition, cumulus parameterization schemes showed high sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Different convective schemes exhibited large discrepancies in rainfall simulations with regards to changing resolution. The percentage of convective precipitation in the Grell scheme increased with increasing horizontal resolution. In contrast, the Kain-Fritsch scheme caused a reduced ratio of convective precipitation to total rainfall accumulations corresponding to increasing

  19. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  20. Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinho, P. F.

    2015-12-01

    Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

  1. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2016-06-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  2. Application of Data Cubes for Improving Detection of Water Cycle Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albayrak, Arif; Teng, William

    2015-01-01

    As part of an ongoing NASA-funded project to remove a longstanding barrier to accessing NASA data (i.e., accessing archived time-step array data as point-time series), for the hydrology and other point-time series-oriented communities, "data cubes" are created from which time series files (aka "data rods") are generated on-the-fly and made available as Web services from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Data cubes are data as archived rearranged into spatio-temporal matrices, which allow for easy access to the data, both spatially and temporally. A data cube is a specific case of the general optimal strategy of reorganizing data to match the desired means of access. The gain from such reorganization is greater the larger the data set. As a use case of our project, we are leveraging existing software to explore the application of the data cubes concept to machine learning, for the purpose of detecting water cycle extreme events, a specific case of anomaly detection, requiring time series data. We investigate the use of support vector machines (SVM) for anomaly classification. We show an example of detection of water cycle extreme events, using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM).

  3. Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. M.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R.; Plater, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal managers and policy makers therefore need to make effective and timely decisions on the use of resources for the immediate and longer Research focused on "monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate" is becoming more common; its goal is to provide science-based decision support for effective adaptation to the consequences of storm impacts, both now and under future climate scenarios at the coast. The growing transfer of information between the science community and end-users is enabling leading research to have a greater impact on the socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. This special issue covers recent research activities relating to coastal hazard mapping in response to extreme events, economic impacts of long-term change, coastal processes influencing management decisions and the development of online decision support tools.

  4. Integrated safety assessment of Indian nuclear power plants for extreme events: Reducing impact on public mind

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anil Kakodkar; Ram Kumar Singh

    2013-10-01

    Nuclear energy professionals need to understand and address the catastrophe syndrome that of late seems to be increasingly at work in public mind in the context of nuclear energy. Classically the nuclear power reactor design and system evolution has been based on the logic of minimization of risk to an acceptable level and its quantification based on a deterministic approach and backed up by a further assessment based on the probabilistic methodology. However, in spite of minimization of risk, the reasons for anxiety and trauma in public mind that still prevails in the context of severe accidents needs to be understood and addressed. Margins between maximum credible accidents factored in the design and the ultimate load withstanding capacities of relevant systems need to be enhanced and guaranteed with a view to minimize release of radioactivity and avoid serious impact in public domain. A more realistic basis for management of an accident in public domain also needs to be quantified for this purpose. Assurance to public on limiting the consequences to a level that does not lead to a trauma is something that we need to be able to credibly demonstrate and confirm. The findings from Chernobyl reports point to significant psychological effects and related health disorders due to large scale emergency relocation of people that could have been possibly reduced by an order of magnitude without significant additional safety detriment. A combination of probabilistic and deterministic approaches should be evolved further to minimize consequences in public domain through enhancing safety margins and adding greater precision to quantitatively predicting accident progression and its management. The paper presents the case studies of the extreme external event such as tsunami and its impact on the coastal nuclear plants in India, the containment integrity assessment under the extreme internal event of over-pressurization and aircraft impact along with hydrogen deflagration

  5. Attribution of extreme events in the western US to human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mera, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    A project to investigate the role of human activities on the changing nature of extreme events in the western US began as part of a CLIVAR-sponsored Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) project. The climate institution was the Oregon State University and the application partner was the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). DLCD was interested in the changes in weather extremes in the Pacific Northwest, specifically extreme rainfall, flooding, and droughts. The project employs very large ensembles of regional model simulations through volunteer computing resources and allows for probabilistic event attribution (PEA), an important climate research technique. The model was found to have good representation of atmospheric rivers, a major source of extreme precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. The model domain also encompasses California and Nevada. One of the studies focused on attribution of extreme heat in relation to vulnerable populations in California's Central Valley, where heat waves have become progressively more severe due to increasing nighttime temperatures. Specifically, we found that that (1) simulations of the hottest summer days during the 2000s were twice as likely to occur using observed levels of greenhouse gases than in a counterfactual world without major human activities, (2) detrimental impacts of heat on public health-relevant variables, such as the number of days above 40°C, can be quantified and attributed to human activities using PEA, and (3) PEA can serve as a tool for addressing climate justice concerns of populations within developed nations. The research conducted through the PACE program has also provided a framework for a pioneering climate attribution study at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The UCS project takes advantage of new research that shows that nearly two-thirds of carbon pollution released into the atmosphere, reported as carbon dioxide equivalent with hundred-year global warming

  6. Total ozone patterns over the northern mid-latitudes: spatial correlations, extreme events and dynamical contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieder, H. E.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Ribatet, M.; Bodeker, G. E.; Davison, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    Tools from geostatistics and extreme value theory are applied to analyze spatial correlations in total ozone for the northern mid-latitudes. The dataset used in this study is the NIWA combined total ozone dataset (Bodeker et al., 2001; Müller et al., 2008). New tools from extreme value theory (Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) have recently been applied to the world's longest total ozone record from Arosa, Switzerland (e.g. Staehelin 1998a,b), in order to describe extreme events in low and high total ozone (Rieder et al., 200x). Within the current study, patterns in spatial correlation and frequency distributions of extreme events (e.g. ELOs and EHOs) are studied for the northern mid-latitudes. New insights in spatial patterns of total ozone for the northern mid-latitudes are presented. Koch et al. (2005) found that the increase in fast isentropic transport of tropical air to northern mid-latitudes contributed significantly to ozone changes between 1980 and 1989. Within this study the influence of changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. tropospheric and lower stratospheric pressure systems) on column ozone over the northern mid-latitudes is analyzed for the time period 1979-2007. References: Bodeker, G.E., J.C. Scott, K. Kreher, and R.L. McKenzie, Global ozone trends in potential vorticity coordinates using TOMS and GOME intercompared against the Dobson network: 1978-1998, J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D19), 23029-23042, 2001. Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer Series in Statistics, ISBN:1852334592, Springer, Berlin, 2001. Koch, G., H. Wernli, C. Schwierz, J. Staehelin, and T. Peter (2005), A composite study on the structure and formation of ozone miniholes and minihighs over central Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12810, doi:10.1029/2004GL022062. Müller, R., Grooß, J.-U., Lemmen, C., Heinze, D., Dameris, M., and Bodeker, G.: Simple measures of ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 251-264, 2008. Ribatet

  7. An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

  8. Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

    OpenAIRE

    Vincenzi, Simone

    2014-01-01

    One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as t...

  9. Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jingyun; Hao, Zhixin; Ge, Quansheng; Liu, Yang

    2016-04-01

    The study of regional climate changes for past 2000 year could present spatial pattern of climate variation and various historical analogues for the sensitivity and operation of the climate system (e.g., the modulations of internal variability, feedbacks and teleconnections, abrupt changes and regional extreme events, etc.) from inter-annual to centennial scales and provide the knowledge to predict and project climate in the near future. China is distinguished by a prominent monsoon climate in east, continental arid climate in northwest and high land cold climate in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau located at southwest. The long history of civilization and the variety of climate in China provides an abundant and well-dated documentary records and a wide range of natural archives (e.g., tree-ring, ice core, stalagmite, varved lake sediment, etc.) for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction. This paper presented a review of recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years. In recent 10 years, there were many new high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reported in China, e.g., the annual and decadal resolution series of temperature and precipitation in eastern China derived from historical documents, in western China derived from tree-ring and other natural archives. These new reconstructions provided more proxies and better spatial coverage to understand the characteristics of climate change over China and the uncertainty of regional reconstructions, as well as to reconstruct the high-resolution temperature series and the spatial pattern of precipitation change for whole China in the past millenniums by synthesizing the multi-proxy together. The updated results show that, in China, the warm intervals for the past 2000 years were in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921; as well as the cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. The extreme cold winters occurred in periods

  10. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  11. Response of Soil Respiration to Repeated Extreme Events in a Temperate Beech Forest in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitner, S.; Kobler, J.; Holtermann, C.; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, S.; Saronjic, N.; Zimmermann, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change research predicts an increase in weather extremes like severe droughts and heavy rainfalls in central Europe. Since soil moisture is one of the most important drivers of soil respiration, a change in precipitation regime is likely to influence ecosystem C cycling. During drying of soils, soil microbial activity decreases and dead microbial cells, osmolytes, and semi-decomposed organic matter accumulate. When dry soils are rewetted, this easily-decomposable C leads to a pulse in soil respiration, a phenomenon known as "Birch-effect". In terms of annual soil CO2emissions, it is not clear whether these post-wetting respiration pulses outweigh or even overcompensate preceding drought-induced reductions in soil respiration. To investigate the impact of repeated drought and heavy rainfall events, a two-year precipitation manipulation experiment was conducted in an Austrian beech forest. Experimental plots were covered with transparent roofs to exclude rainfall, and an irrigation system was used to simulate heavy rainfall events. Control plots received natural precipitation. Soil respiration was monitored 3-hourly with an automatic static chamber system connected to an infrared CO2 analyzer. Soil temperature (Tsoil) and volumetric water content (VWC) were recorded with a datalogger. Various statistical models were tested to describe the relationship between soil respiration, Tsoiland VWC. Our results showed that repeated extreme events strongly reduced variation in soil respiration. Droughts significantly reduced soil respiration, and reductions depended on the length of the drought period. Post-wetting respiration pulses did not outweigh drought-induced reductions. Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was best described with a Lloyd & Taylor model. Furthermore, in stressed plots VWC became limiting for soil respiration. Overall, our data corroborate the importance of the precipitation regime for soil respiration.

  12. Manaus city Flow Warning system and extreme events monitoring in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, A. L. M. R.; Oliveira, D.; Oliveira, M. A.; Moreira, D.; Maciel, J. S. C.

    2012-04-01

    The Amazon basin is the biggest watershed in the world, in the center of this basin, there is a city called Manaus, with population next to 2 million habitants. Manaus city is bounded by Negro River; one of the main rivers in Amazon, this river has its level checked by Fluvial Station in the Manaus harbor, which has a range of 100 years of hydrological data records. The hydrological cycle in the region next to Manaus has certain regularity, its common variety is considered of 7 months of rising river, in other words, the fluvial quotes rising and 5 months of falling (ebb). Although, the water level variation in Manaus Harbor, from its draft to flow can achieve the variation up to 16 meters of water level height, this difference can affect all the Amazon region, happening impacts such as the interference of regional agriculture and fluvial transportation, besides the economic activities in the harbor and local population welfare, arising from extreme events. Considering the relevance of prediction and accompanying of flows and drafts, the Geologic Survey of Brazil implemented, since 1989, a warning system to these extreme events. This paper focused to demonstrate the a warning system implemented from equations based on the Manaus Harbor quotes, since Negro River has a regular hydrological cycle, thus, it is possible to predict the highest quotes in the hydrological year, in advance till 75 days with accurate prediction, in a gap of 45 to 15 days before the flow. This paper presents, also, the biggest events occurred in a hundred years of records collected by Manaus Harbor, as example, the draft happened in December 2010 and the flow in June 2009, as well demonstrating the values and impacts in the Amazon region.

  13. Development of an Evaluation Methodology for Loss of Large Area induced from extreme events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sok Chul; Park, Jong Seuk; Kim, Byung Soon; Jang, Dong Ju; Lee, Seung Woo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    USNRC announced several regulatory requirements and guidance documents regarding the event of loss of large area including 10CFR 50.54(hh), Regulatory Guide 1.214 and SRP 19.4. In Korea, consideration of loss of large area has been limitedly taken into account for newly constructing NPPs as voluntary based. In general, it is hardly possible to find available information on methodology and key assumptions for the assessment of LOLA due to 'need to know based approach'. Urgent needs exists for developing country specific regulatory requirements, guidance and evaluation methodology by themselves with the consideration of their own geographical and nuclear safety and security environments. Currently, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company (KHNP) has developed an Extended Damage Mitigation Guideline (EDMG) for APR1400 under contract with foreign consulting company. The submittal guidance NEI 06-12 related to B.5.b Phase 2 and 3 focused on unit-wise mitigation strategy instead of site level mitigation or response strategy. Phase 1 mitigating strategy and guideline for LOLA (Loss of Large Area) provides emphasis on site level arrangement including cooperative networking outside organizations and agile command and control system. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety has carried out a pilot in-house research project to develop the methodology and guideline for evaluation of LOLA since 2014. This paper introduces the summary of major results and outcomes of the aforementioned research project. After Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident, the awareness on countering the event of loss of large area induced from extreme man-made hazards or extreme beyond design basis external event. Urgent need exists to develop regulatory guidance for coping with this undesirable situation, which has been out of consideration at existing nuclear safety regulatory framework due to the expectation of rare possibility of occurrence.

  14. Assessment of extreme quantitative precipitation forecasts and development of regional extreme event thresholds using data from HMT-2006 and COOP observers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, F.M.; Sukovich, E.; Reynolds, D.; Dettinger, M.; Weagle, S.; Clark, W.; Neiman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Extreme precipitation events, and the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) associated with them, are examined. The study uses data from the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT), which conducted its first field study in California during the 2005/06 cool season. National Weather Service River Forecast Center (NWS RFC) gridded QPFs for 24-h periods at 24-h (day 1), 48-h (day 2), and 72-h (day 3) forecast lead times plus 24-h quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) fromsites in California (CA) and Oregon-Washington (OR-WA) are used. During the 172-day period studied, some sites received more than 254 cm (100 in.) of precipitation. The winter season produced many extreme precipitation events, including 90 instances when a site received more than 7.6 cm (3.0 in.) of precipitation in 24 h (i.e., an "event") and 17 events that exceeded 12.7 cm (24 h)-1 [5.0 in. (24 h)-1]. For the 90 extreme events f.7.6 cm (24 h)-1 [3.0 in. (24 h)-1]g, almost 90% of all the 270 QPFs (days 1-3) were biased low, increasingly so with greater lead time. Of the 17 observed events exceeding 12.7 cm (24 h)-1 [5.0 in. (24 h)-1], only 1 of those events was predicted to be that extreme. Almost all of the extreme events correlated with the presence of atmospheric river conditions. Total seasonal QPF biases for all events fi.e., $0.025 cm (24 h)-1 [0.01 in. (24 h)-1]g were sensitive to local geography and were generally biased low in the California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) region and high in the Northwest River Forecast Center(NWRFC) domain. The low bias in CA QPFs improved with shorter forecast lead time and worsened for extreme events. Differences were also noted between the CNRFC and NWRFC in terms of QPF and the frequency of extreme events. A key finding from this study is that there were more precipitation events .7.6 cm (24 h)-1 [3.0 in. (24 h)21] in CA than in OR-WA. Examination of 422 Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites in the NWRFC domain and 400 in the CNRFC domain

  15. The CAULDRON game: Helping decision makers understand extreme weather event attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, P.; Otto, F. E. L.

    2014-12-01

    There is a recognition from academics and stakeholders that climate science has a fundamental role to play in the decision making process, but too frequently there is still uncertainty about what, when, how and why to use it. Stakeholders suggest that it is because the science is presented in an inaccessible manner, while academics suggest it is because the stakeholders do not have the scientific knowledge to understand and apply the science appropriately. What is apparent is that stakeholders need support, and that there is an onus on academia to provide it. This support is even more important with recent developments in climate science, such as extreme weather event attribution. We are already seeing the impacts of extreme weather events around the world causing lost of life and damage to property and infrastructure with current research suggesting that these events could become more frequent and more intense. If this is to be the case then a better understanding of the science will be vital in developing robust adaptation and business planning. The use of games, role playing and simulations to aid learning has long been understood in education but less so as a tool to support stakeholder understanding of climate science. Providing a 'safe' space where participants can actively engage with concepts, ideas and often emotions, can lead to deep understanding that is not possible through more passive mechanisms such as papers and web sites. This paper reports on a game that was developed through a collaboration led by the Red Cross/Red Crescent, University of Oxford and University of Reading to help stakeholders understand the role of weather event attribution in the decision making process. The game has already been played successfully at a number of high profile events including COP 19 and the African Climate Conference. It has also been used with students as part of a postgraduate environmental management course. As well as describing the design principles of the

  16. Digital Learning Network Education Events of NASA's Extreme Environments Mission Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Heather; Guillory, Erika

    2007-01-01

    NASA's Digital Learning Network (DLN) reaches out to thousands of students each year through video conferencing and web casting. The DLN has created a series of live education videoconferences connecting NASA s Extreme Environment Missions Operations (NEEMO) team to students across the United States. The programs are also extended to students around the world live web casting. The primary focus of the events is the vision for space exploration. During the programs, NEEMO Crewmembers including NASA astronauts, engineers and scientists inform and inspire students about the importance of exploration and share the impact of the project as it correlates with plans to return to the moon and explore the planet Mars. These events highlight interactivity. Students talk live with the aquanauts in Aquarius, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s underwater laboratory. With this program, NASA continues the Agency s tradition of investing in the nation's education programs. It is directly tied to the Agency's major education goal of attracting and retaining students in science, technology, and engineering disciplines. Before connecting with the aquanauts, the students conduct experiments of their own designed to coincide with mission objectives. This paper describes the events that took place in September 2006.

  17. Multiphysics Modeling in Watershed Systems: How Weak Nonlinearities Amplify Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, C.; Kumar, M.

    2009-04-01

    This research is developing a modeling system for the synthesis of multi-state, multi-scale distributed hydrologic processes based on the semi-discrete representation of the underlying physical process equations and state variables (Qu and Duffy, WRR 2007). Our interest is in devising a concise representation of watershed or river basin hydrodynamics, which allows interactions among major physical processes operating simultaneously, but with the flexibility to add or eliminate states/processes/constitutive relations depending on the objective of the numerical experiment or purpose of the scientific or operational application. In this paper we demonstrate how nonlinear coupling effects (e.g. unsaturated-saturated flow, gaining-losing streams) in the presence of weak periodic climate forcing can amplify or heavily damp streamflow during large rainfall events. Several examples are given where weak climate variations may have large effects on terrestrial response to large random precipitation events. The research demonstrates how climate and weather, interacting with weakly nonlinear and coupled processes in the watershed, can have a large impact on flooding from extreme precipitation events.

  18. Inter-annual variability of carbon exchange and extreme events at the Loobos pine forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbers, Jan; Moors, Eddy; Hutjes, Ronald; Jacobs, Cor; Jans, Wilma; Kruijt, Bart; Stolk, Petra; ter Maat, Herbert; Vermeulen, Marleen; Abreu, Pedro

    2013-04-01

    Introduction At the seasonal to inter-annual time scale large variations in net uptake exist as a result of changing weather conditions. It is therefore important to investigate the inter-annual variability of the uptake of forests as accurately as possible and relate it to physiological and physical constraints of the biosphere-atmosphere system. Present model concepts on NEE are well capable to reproduce average conditions, however they fail to reproduce short term variations. If we are able to explain these variations this will help to improve explaining inter-annual variability. We analysed the impact of extremes on inter-annual variation observed in measurements of eddy-covariance fluxes over the years 1997-2012 over a mid-latitude pine forest in The Netherlands. To improve our understanding of these variations, we tried to quantify and make a distinction between variations caused by environmental conditions by means of ecosystem response curves for real and maximum response. We analysed the remaining variation by looking at changes in site conditions, such as aging and nitrogen availability and disturbances caused by abrupt events such as storms, frost, harvest, fire etc. Results Based on annual totals, the inter-annual variability in NEE is the result of variations in Reco and, to a lesser extent, GPP. There is no evidence that annual meteorological averages are the main drivers for inter-annual variation in observed NEE. Response functions However at a monthly time step there is a strong correlation between GPP and radiation and to a lesser extend with temperature and maximum vapour pressure deficit. The correlation with VPDmax reflects the strong control VPD has on the stomatal closure of this eco-system. Reco correlates best with air temperature, marginally better than with superficial soil temperature. Including superficial soil moisture in the function slightly increases the correlation. Fitted response curves show that non-stressed ecosystem

  19. Self-Nowcast Model of extreme precipitation events for operational meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    França, G. B.; de Almeida, M. V.; Rosette, A. C.

    2015-10-01

    Nowadays many social activities require short-term (one to two hours) and local area forecasts of extreme weather. In particular, air traffic systems have been studying how to minimize the impact of meteorological events, such as turbulence, wind shear, ice, and heavy rain, which are related to the presence of convective systems during all flight phases. This paper presents an alternative self-nowcast model, based on neural network techniques, to produce short-term and local-specific forecasts of extreme meteorological events in the area of the landing and take-off region of Galeão, the principal airport in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Twelve years of data were used for neural network training and validation. Data are originally from four sources: (1) hourly meteorological observations from surface meteorological stations at five airports distributed around the study area, (2) atmospheric profiles collected twice a day at the meteorological station at Galeão Airport, (3) rain rate data collected from a network of twenty-nine rain gauges in the study area; and (4) lightning data regularly collected by national detection networks. An investigation was done about the capability of a neural network to produce early warning signs - or as a nowcasting tool - for extreme meteorological events. The self-nowcast model was validated using results from six categorical statistics, indicated in parentheses for forecasts of the first, second, and third hours, respectively, namely: proportion correct (0.98, 0.96, and 0.94), bias (1.37, 1.48, and 1.83), probability of detection (0.84, 0.80, and 0.76), false-alarm ratio (0.38, 0.46, and 0.58), and threat score (0.54, 0.47, and 0.37). Possible sources of error related to the validation procedure are discussed. Two key points have been identified in which there is a possibility of error: i.e., subjectivity on the part of the meteorologist making the observation, and a rain gauge measurement error of about 20 % depending on wind speed

  20. Constraining timing and origin of extreme wave events, Shirazuka Lowlands, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedesel, Svenja; Brill, Dominik; Brückner, Helmut; De Batist, Marc; Fujiwara, Osamu; Garrett, Ed; Heyvaert, Vanessa M. A.; Miyairi, Yosuke; Opitz, Stephan; Seeliger, Martin; Shishikura, Masanubu; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Zander, Anja

    2016-04-01

    Tsunami and storm surges are major threats on coastal settlements. The Pacific Coast of southwest Japan is impacted by typhoons and tsunamis caused by earthquakes along the Nankai trough. This part of the Philippine Sea to Eurasia Plate subduction zone is expected to cause another earthquake and tsunami in near future. To improve the predictability of potential events, it is important to establish chronologies of former tsunamis as a basis for long-term recurrence intervals. Characterization of potential event deposits following a multi-proxy approach provides information about sediment source, transport dynamics and depositional processes. Sandwiched between a mid-Pleistocene terrace and a beach ridge, the coastal lowlands at Shirasuka, are ideally situated to record evidence of typhoons and tsunamis. Sediment cores from the lowlands include seven potential extreme wave event deposits. Their age, roughly constrained from a radiocarbon chronology, is historical. However, since the radiocarbon plateau deteriorates the precision of radiocarbon dating, optically stimulated luminescence dating was tested at this site. Quartz, as the favoured mineral for dating young and potentially poorly bleached sediments failed due to low signal intensity, absence of a fast component, and sensitivity to IR stimulation. Instead, feldspar dating is applied, using a standard IR50 and the post-IR-IR130 protocol to account for both signal stability (anomalous fading) and bleachability of the relatively young age of the sediments (<1000 years). The promising feldspar luminescence properties revealed by both protocols may offer the potential to establish robust OSL ages for all seven recorded event deposits that, in the end, may help to refine the existing radiocarbon chronology. Beside the establishment of a high-resolution OSL chronology, sedimentological, geochemical and microfaunal analyses allow a more detailed characterization of the event deposits. By applying the end

  1. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

  2. EEE - Extreme Energy Events: an astroparticle physics experiment in Italian High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbrescia, M.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L.; Baldini Ferroli, R.; Batignani, G.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Bressan, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalò, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; Corvaglia, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Pasquale, S.; Di Giovanni, A.; D’Incecco, M.; Dreucci, M.; Fabbri, F. L.; Fattibene, E.; Ferrarov, A.; Forster, R.; Frolov, V.; Galeotti, P.; Garbini, M.; Gemme, G.; Gnesi, I.; Grazzi, S.; Gustavino, C.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; La Rocca, P.; Maggiora, A.; Maron, G.; Mazziotta, M. N.; Miozzi, S.; Noferini, F.; Nozzoli, F.; Panareo, M.; Panetta, M. P.; Paoletti, R.; Perasso, L.; Pilo, F.; Piragino, G.; Riggi, F.; Righini, G. C.; Rodriguez Rodriguez, A.; Sartorelli, G.; Scapparone, E.; Schioppa, M.; Scribano, A.; Selvi, M.; Serci, S.; Siddi, E.; Squarcia, S.; Taiuti, M.; Terreni, G.; Vistoli, M. C.; Votano, L.; Williams, M. C. S.; Zani, S.; Zichichi, A.; Zuyeuski, R.

    2016-05-01

    The Extreme Energy Events project (EEE) is aimed to study Extensive Air Showers (EAS) from primary cosmic rays of more than 1018 eV energy detecting the ground secondary muon component using an array of telescopes with high spatial and time resolution. The second goal of the EEE project is to involve High School teachers and students in this advanced research work and to initiate them in scientific culture: to reach both purposes the telescopes are located inside High School buildings and the detector construction, assembling and monitoring - together with data taking and analysis - are done by researchers from scientific institutions in close collaboration with them. At present there are 42 telescopes in just as many High Schools scattered all over Italy, islands included, plus two at CERN and three in INFN units. We report here some preliminary physics results from the first two common data taking periods together with the outreach impact of the project.

  3. Microbial utilization of litter carbon under the effect of extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrich, Steffen; Kuzyakov, Yakov; Glaser, Bruno

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to not only lead to an increase of average annual temperature but also to increase the frequency of extreme meteorological events. For example, extreme summer-droughts followed by heavy rainfall events are likely to increase. This may change SOM quality, composition, microbial community functioning and thus C turnover in temperate forest ecosystems. Therefore, we performed a tracer experiment in the "Fichtelgebirge" (Northern Bavaria) to verify the influence of strong drying followed by intensive rewetting on the microbial community structure and decomposition of litter-derived 13C by individual microbial groups. In 2010, sheltered plots with artificially simulated drought, those with additional irrigation and control sites under natural conditions were established at a Norway spruce forest. At each plot, we added 13C enriched spruce litter to simulate annual litter fall. Thereafter, we assessed the effect of extreme weather events on microbial community structure by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. In addition, we analyzed the 13C incorporation into bulk soil, microbial biomass and PLFA of the organic horizon and the mineral soil up to 10 cm. Additionally respired CO2 was quantified by closed chambers. Drought reduced the microbial biomass only in the organic horizon, while in the mineral soil the microbial abundance did not decrease compared to the control and irrigated plots. The decrease in microbial biomass in the organic horizon of the drought plots resulted also in a strongly reduced incorporation of litter derived C: Incorporation of litter 13C was a magnitude of three lower in the drought plots compared to the control and irrigation plots. Furthermore, after the drought period of 90 days the proportion of 13C in CO2 from soil respiration was reduced by about 95% on the drought plots compared to the control and irrigated plots. This is in agreement with the reduced degradation of litter derived C and thus a reduced C

  4. Real-time detection of an extreme scattering event: Constraints on Galactic plasma lenses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannister, Keith W; Stevens, Jamie; Tuntsov, Artem V; Walker, Mark A; Johnston, Simon; Reynolds, Cormac; Bignall, Hayley

    2016-01-22

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) are distinctive fluctuations in the brightness of astronomical radio sources caused by occulting plasma lenses in the interstellar medium. The inferred plasma pressures of the lenses are ~10(3) times the ambient pressure, challenging our understanding of gas conditions in the Milky Way. Using a new survey technique, we discovered an ESE while it was in progress. Here we report radio and optical follow-up observations. Modeling of the radio data demonstrates that the lensing structure is a density enhancement and the lens is diverging, ruling out one of two competing physical models. Our technique will uncover many more ESEs, addressing a long-standing mystery of the small-scale gas structure of our Galaxy.

  5. Real-time detection of an extreme scattering event: constraints on Galactic plasma lenses

    CERN Document Server

    Bannister, Keith W; Tuntsov, Artem V; Walker, Mark A; Johnston, Simon; Reynolds, Cormac; Bignall, Hayley

    2016-01-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) are distinctive fluctuations in the brightness of astronomical radio sources caused by occulting plasma lenses in the interstellar medium. The inferred plasma pressures of the lenses are $\\sim 10^3$ times the ambient pressure, challenging our understanding of gas conditions in the Milky Way. Using a new survey technique, we have discovered an ESE while it was in progress. We report radio and optical follow-up observations. Modelling of the radio data demonstrates that the lensing structure is a density enhancement and that the lens is diverging, ruling out one of two competing physical models. Our technique will uncover many more ESEs, addressing a long-standing mystery of the small-scale gas structure of the Galaxy.

  6. Possible Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Hot Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Jian-Qi

    2012-01-01

    This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.

  7. A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

    2013-01-01

    During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

  8. Real-time detection of an extreme scattering event: Constraints on Galactic plasma lenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannister, Keith W.; Stevens, Jamie; Tuntsov, Artem V.; Walker, Mark A.; Johnston, Simon; Reynolds, Cormac; Bignall, Hayley

    2016-01-01

    Extreme scattering events (ESEs) are distinctive fluctuations in the brightness of astronomical radio sources caused by occulting plasma lenses in the interstellar medium. The inferred plasma pressures of the lenses are ~103 times the ambient pressure, challenging our understanding of gas conditions in the Milky Way. Using a new survey technique, we discovered an ESE while it was in progress. Here we report radio and optical follow-up observations. Modeling of the radio data demonstrates that the lensing structure is a density enhancement and the lens is diverging, ruling out one of two competing physical models. Our technique will uncover many more ESEs, addressing a long-standing mystery of the small-scale gas structure of our Galaxy.

  9. Extreme Energy Events Project: Construction of the detectors and installation in Italian High Schools

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, M; An, S; Antolini, R; Badalà, A; Baldini Ferroli, R; Bencivenni, G; Blanco, F; Bressan, E; Chiavassa, A; Chiri, C; Cifarelli, L; Cindolo, F; Coccia, E; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D’Incecco, M; Fabbri, F L; Frolov, V; Garbini, M; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadou, D; Imponente, G; Kim, J; La Rocca, P; Librizzi, F; Maggiora, A; Menghetti, H; Miozzi, S; Moro, R; Panareo, M; Pappalardo, G S; Piragino, G; Riggi, F; Romano, F; Sartorelli, G; Sbarra, C; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Williams, C; Zuyeuski, R

    2008-01-01

    The EEE Project, conceived by its leader Antonino Zichichi, aims to detect Extreme Energy Events of cosmic rays with an array of muon telescopes distributed over the Italian territory. The Project involves Italian High Schools in order to introduce young people to Physics, also countervailing the recent crisis of university scientific classes inscriptions. The detectors for the EEE telescopes are Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPC) and have been constructed by teams of High School students who went in shift at the CERN laboratories. The mechanics and the electronics were developed by groups of researchers from CERN, the Italian Centro Fermi and INFN. The first group of schools of the EEE Project has inaugurated their telescopes recently. A status report of the Project and the preliminary results are presented.

  10. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-12-23

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  11. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  12. Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grotjahn, R.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

  13. Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

    2010-05-28

    The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope. PMID:20403836

  14. Investigation of Atmospheric Modelling Framework for Better Reconstruction on Historical Extreme Precipitation Event in PMP Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Hossain, F.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    During May 1-2, 2010, a record-breaking storm hit Nashville, and caused huge humanity and societal loss. It raises the importance of forecasting/reconstructing these types of extreme weather systems once again, in the meanwhile providing an excellent case for such atmospheric modelling studies. However, earlier studies suggest that successful reconstruction of this event depends on and is sensitive to a number of model options, making it difficult to establish a better model framework with more confidence. In this study we employed the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to investigate how this extreme precipitation event is sensitive to the model configuration, and identified options that would produce better results. We tested several combinations of modelling grid sizes together with initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC). At different grid sizes, we conducted a set of tests on various combinations of microphysics (Morrison, new Thompson and WSM5) and cumulus process (Kain-Fristch, Grell-Devenyi and Grell-Freitas) parameterization schemes. The model results were intensively evaluated under bias analysis as well as other metrics (probability of detection, bias, false alerts, HSS, ETS). The evaluation suggests that in general, simulation results benefit from finer model grids (5km). At 5km level, NCEP2 or NAM IC/BCs are more representative for the 2010 Nashville storm. There are no universally good parameterization schemes, but the WSM5 microphysics scheme, Kain-Fristch and Grell-Freitas cumulus schemes are recommended over other tested schemes. These better schemes would help to make better estimation of PMP in the region.

  15. The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šraj Mojca

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Substantial evidence shows that the frequency of hydrological extremes has been changing and is likely to continue to change in the near future. Non-stationary models for flood frequency analyses are one method of accounting for these changes in estimating design values. The objective of the present study is to compare four models in terms of goodness of fit, their uncertainties, the parameter estimation methods and the implications for estimating flood quantiles. Stationary and non-stationary models using the GEV distribution were considered, with parameters dependent on time and on annual precipitation. Furthermore, in order to study the influence of the parameter estimation approach on the results, the maximum likelihood (MLE and Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC methods were compared. The methods were tested for two gauging stations in Slovenia that exhibit significantly increasing trends in annual maximum (AM discharge series. The comparison of the models suggests that the stationary model tends to underestimate flood quantiles relative to the non-stationary models in recent years. The model with annual precipitation as a covariate exhibits the best goodness-of-fit performance. For a 10% increase in annual precipitation, the 10-year flood increases by 8%. Use of the model for design purposes requires scenarios of future annual precipitation. It is argued that these may be obtained more reliably than scenarios of extreme event precipitation which makes the proposed model more practically useful than alternative models.

  16. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Extreme Weather Events- A Case Study from Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S.; Mukand, M. S.; Kawasaki, A.; Webster, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    Assessment of hazard, vulnerability and risk of extreme weather are essential in order to inform and implement appropriate adaptation/prevention/mitigation strategies. Due to complex nature and uncertainties in future climate change predictions, it is not feasible to detail assessment of vulnerability at detailed scales for potential hazard and risk. Though different approaches and methods exist for running hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment, but still difficult to address all physical science, engineering, and social science research. In this study, we try to discuss on the human vulnerability and risk assessment approaches, tools and techniques of natural hazard due to extreme weather events (i.e. floods, cyclone). We analyzed different approaches and methods of vulnerability and risk assessment for flood hazard based on medium (1-10 days) and seasonal (1-3 months) ensembles probabilistic forecasts. The multiple weather ensembles (EPS) forecasts of European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) and downscaled Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) forecasts data were used to set up hydrological model. Due to high uncertainty in forecasts information, results summarized that data and inherent low resolutions of the information are major constrains for details comprehensive assessment. Risk and vulnerability rises to be based on multi-scale and cross-scale analyses, considering resilience dimensions and provide innovative tools for understanding, assessing and communicating probabilistic information to the users for decision making. The sectoral responses were developed with possible impacts scenarios based on uncertainty ranges to choose the most robust solution.

  17. Evaluating Projected Changes in Mean Processes, Extreme Events, and their Spatio-Temporal Dependence Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, A. R.; Steinhaeuser, K.; Kodra, E. A.; Kao, S.

    2010-12-01

    Observational datasets - both raw measurements and derived data products such as reanalysis data - are used to evaluate climate simulations run in forecast and hindcast modes. Bias and uncertainty in mean processes is quantified using statistical comparisons between observations and model-generated outputs. Weather and hydrological extremes under climate change are characterized using both event definitions and extreme value theory (EVT), and their aggregate statistics (intensity, duration and frequency) are likewise compared. The geographic variability and topographical biases are examined at continental to regional scales, and dependence structures (both spatio-temporal autocorrelation and long-range dependence) are assessed using statistical and nonlinear dynamical methods. These tools were developed primarily using the CMIP3/IPCC-AR4 archived model outputs, and are being additional tested with simulations from regional climate models which dynamically downscale the AR4 archives. This combination of traditional and novel tools is thus geared towards evaluation of multiple climate models which may handle processes or generate outputs at different spatial and temporal scales. The tools are expected to be immediately applicable to the CMIP5 data when it becomes available. The anticipated space-time resolutions will pose algorithmic challenges and computational demands, which will be addressed using analytic solutions and implementations thereof on high-performance scientific computing platforms.

  18. Understanding and predicting the impact of extreme storms events on European coastlines: the MICORE approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciavola, P.

    2009-04-01

    Both the EU and The United Nations are now taking seriously the predicted climate change scenarios of the IPCC. Of particular relevance to Integrated Coastal Zone Management is the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of powerful storm events characterised by larger peak wind speeds and consequently larger waves. Engineering has usually been favoured in the past as the best option for disaster mitigation at the coast. However, most engineering works are constrained by economics, and a compromise is sought between the potential threat to lives and property and the resources available for design and construction. Furthermore, the design of structures is based on predicted extreme events which themselves are subject to uncertainty, especially in a rapidly changing global climate. The huge damage to the city of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina illustrates clearly what can go wrong when the engineering design is subjected to forcing beyond its design limits and when civil evacuation and management plans fail. The proposed paper will address the issue of encouraging and facilitating exchange of information on storm impacts produced by nationally funded projects in Member States; establishing robust data management and data quality control and engaging with stakeholders and end users to optimise dissemination strategies. It will heavily rely on the information produced by the MICORE Project (FP7 contract 202798), using and enlarging the database collated by the project regarding the characteristics of extreme storm events occurred in the last 50 years. The MICORE project (www.micore.eu) will provide the knowledge necessary to assess the present day risks and to study the economic and social impact of future severe storm events. Together, these elements will have an important strategic impact on the safety of the people living in coastal areas and upon decision processes aimed at minimising the economic consequences of extreme events. The project will also

  19. A hypothesis on nanodust as a source of energy for extreme weather events and climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkovich, Simon

    2013-03-01

    There are many phenomena that attract energy, the source of which cannot be unerringly identified. Among those are: excess heat alleged to nuclear processes, sonoluminescence, wire fragmentation under high voltage pulses, diverse biophysical experiences, and some atmospheric effects, like ball lightning and terrestrial gamma rays. Destructive atmospheric events associated with intense air movements, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, expend huge amounts of energy equivalent to very many nuclear bombs. Our paper indicates a possibility for a new source of energy due to the so-called ``hot-clocking'' effect related to the holographic mechanism of the Universe that establishes the exclusive property of nonlocality. This may uncover energy in various unusual appearances, particularly, in the suspected trend of global warming as a direct contribution to the extreme weather events. The surmised clocking impacts from holographic reference beam can reveal themselves through gaseous aerosols and suspended contaminants that may have been increased with human technogenesis. According to recent EPRI report nanopowder for Ni-Pd alloys in the size range of 5-10 nm was found to cause small amounts of excess power, about 4 watt per gram. So, using a minimal norm of contamination (20 micrograms per cubic meter) as an approximate guide, we could estimate that the whole atmosphere would thus generate dozens of terawatts, a contribution comparable to that of the Sun.

  20. Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatalo, Juha M; Jägerbrand, Annika K; Molau, Ulf

    2016-02-18

    Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity.

  1. Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalonne L. White-Newsome

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme heat events (EHEs are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

  2. Strategies to reduce the harmful effects of extreme heat events: a four-city study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C; Parker, Edith A

    2014-02-13

    Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ-cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

  3. Evaluating aerosol impacts on Numerical Weather Prediction in two extreme dust and biomass-burning events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Samuel; Benedetti, Angela; Jones, Luke; Razinger, Miha; Haiden, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    The WMO-sponsored Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) set up a project aimed at understanding the importance of aerosols for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Three cases are being investigated by several NWP centres with aerosol capabilities: a severe dust case that affected Southern Europe in April 2012, a biomass burning case in South America in September 2012, and an extreme pollution event in Beijing (China) which took place in January 2013. At ECMWF these cases are being studied using the MACC-II system with radiatively interactive aerosols. Some preliminary results related to the dust and the fire event will be presented here. A preliminary verification of the impact of the aerosol-radiation direct interaction on surface meteorological parameters such as 2m Temperature and surface winds over the region of interest will be presented. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) verification using AERONET data will also be discussed. For the biomass burning case, the impact of using injection heights estimated by a Plume Rise Model (PRM) for the biomass burning emissions will be presented.

  4. Communicating natural hazards. The case of marine extreme events and the importance of the forecast's errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marone, Eduardo; Camargo, Ricardo

    2013-04-01

    Scientific knowledge has to fulfill some necessary conditions. Among them, it has to be properly communicated. Usually, scientists (mis)understand that the communication requirement is satisfied by publishing their results on peer reviewed journals. Society claims for information in other formats or languages and other tools and approaches have to be used, otherwise the scientific discoveries will not fulfill its social mean. However, scientists are not so well trained to do so. These facts are particularly relevant when the scientific work has to deal with natural hazards, which do not affect just a lab or a computer experiment, but the life and fate of human beings. We are actually working with marine extreme events related with sea level changes, waves and other coastal hazards. Primary, the work is developed on the classic scientific format, but focusing not only in the stochastic way of predicting such extreme events, but estimating the potential errors the forecasting methodologies intrinsically have. The scientific results are translated to a friendly format required by stakeholders (which are financing part of the work). Finally, we hope to produce a document prepared for the general public. Each of the targets has their own characteristics and we have to use the proper communication tools and languages. Also, when communicating such knowledge, we have to consider that stakeholders and general public have no obligation of understanding the scientific language, but scientists have the responsibility of translating their discoveries and predictions in a proper way. The information on coastal hazards is analyzed in statistical and numerical ways, departing from long term observation of, for instance, sea level. From the analysis it is possible to recognize different natural regimes and to present the return times of extreme events, while from the numerical models, properly tuned to reproduce the same past ocean behavior using hindcast approaches, it is

  5. Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCalla, M. R.

    2008-12-01

    The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the

  6. Jellyfish: Observational Properties of Extreme Ram-Pressure Stripping Events in Massive Galaxy Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conor, McPartland; Ebeling, Harald; Roediger, Elke

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the physical origin and observational signatures of extreme ram-pressure stripping (RPS) in 63 massive galaxy clusters at z=0.3-0.7, based on data in the F606W passband obtained with the Advanced Camera for Surveys aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. Using a training set of a dozen ``jellyfish" galaxies identified earlier in the same imaging data, we define quantitative morphological criteria to select candidate galaxies which are similar to known cases of RPS. Considering a sample of 16 ``jellyfish" galaxies (10 of which we present for the first time), we visually derive estimates of the projected direction of motion based on dynamical features such as apparent compression shocks and debris trails. Our findings suggest that the observed events occur primarily at large distances from the cluster core and involve infall trajectories featuring high impact parameters. Simple models of cluster growth show that such trajectories are consistent with two scenarios: 1) galaxy infall along filaments; and 2) infall at high velocities (≥1000 km/s) characteristic of cluster mergers. The observed distribution of events is best described by timescales of ˜few Myr in agreement with recent numerical simulations of RPS. The broader areal coverage of the Hubble Frontier Fields should provide an even larger sample of RPS events to determine the relative contributions of infall and cluster mergers. Prompted by the discovery of several jellyfish galaxies whose brightness in the F606W passband rivals or exceeds that of the respective brightest cluster galaxy, we attempt to constrain the luminosity function of galaxies undergoing RPS. The observed significant excess at the bright end compared to the luminosity functions of blue cluster members strongly suggests enhanced star formation, thus challenging theoretical and numerical studies according to which RPS merely displaces existing star-forming regions. In-depth studies of individual objects will help test our

  7. Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruiguang

    During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth's environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index ( Dst). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with Dst ⩽ -50 nT within 1-5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have Dst index ⩽ -100 nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All Dst depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward Bz and in close to 80% of the cases that the Bz was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.

  8. Characterising the Geomorphic Response of a Tropical Mega-River to an Extreme, Cyclone Induced, Flood Event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackney, C. R.; Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Parsons, D. R.; Aalto, R. E.; Nicholas, A. P.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme events have the ability to induce extensive geomorphic change in fluvial systems as a result of elevated discharge levels, increased sediment transport capacity and associated changes in sheer stresses along channel boundaries. Understanding how rapid rises in water levels change flow structures and channel boundary roughness is key to understanding the relative significance of large events in terms of driving local and system wide geomorphic change. However, capturing the fluvial process dynamics in operation during such events is technically and logistically difficult, especially in the world's largest rivers. During September 2013, on the peak of the monsoon, a series of tropical cyclones induced a large flood event within the Mekong basin. At the peak of the flood wave, discharge measured ~60000 m3/s; the 11th largest flood on record. Pre and post event high resolution topographic surveys of parts of the bed and bank were captured using a combination of contiguous multibeam echo sounding (MBES) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) during the event. Simultaneously detailed measurements of cross sectional and near bank flow structure were acquired using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp). Together, these unique datasets can be used to characterise and assess the geomorphic impact of a cyclone induced extreme flood event on the Mekong. We show how flow structures in the near bank region evolve with stage during the extreme event and how the associated geomorphic response is modulated by the distinctive process dynamics of a mega-river.

  9. Widespread extreme drought events in Iberia and their relationship with North Atlantic moisture flux deficit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Montero, Irene; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2015-04-01

    Droughts represent one of the most frequent climatic extreme events on the Iberian Peninsula, often with widespread negative ecological and environmental impacts, resulting in major socio-economic damages such as large decreases in hydroelectricity and agricultural productions or increasing forest fire risk. Unlike other weather driven extreme events, droughts duration could be from few months to several years. Here we employ a recently developed climatic drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI; Vicente-Serrano et al. 2010a), based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature fields. This index holds the advantage of combining a multi-scalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010a). In this study the SPEI was computed using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS3.21 High Resolution Gridded Data (0.5°) for the period 1901-2012. At this resolution the study region of Iberian Peninsula corresponds to a square of 30x30 grid pixels. The CRU Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) was used, through the Penmann-Monteith equation and the log-logistic probability distribution. This formulation allows a very good fit to the series of differences between precipitation and PET (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010b), using monthly averages of daily maximum and minimum temperature data and also monthly precipitation records. The parameters were estimated by means of the L-moment method. The application of multi-scalar indices to the high-resolution datasets allows identifying whether the Iberian Peninsula is in hydric stress and also whether drought is installed. Based on the gridded SPEI datasets, spanning from 1901 to 2012, obtained for timescales 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, an objective method is applied for ranking the most extensive extreme drought events that occurred on the Iberian Peninsula. This objective method is based on the evaluation of the

  10. Boulder accumulations related to extreme wave events on the eastern coast of Malta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biolchi, S.; Furlani, S.; Antonioli, F.; Baldassini, N.; Causon Deguara, J.; Devoto, S.; Di Stefano, A.; Evans, J.; Gambin, T.; Gauci, R.; Mastronuzzi, G.; Monaco, C.; Scicchitano, G.

    2015-10-01

    The accumulation of large boulders related to waves generated either by tsunamis or extreme storm events has been observed in different areas of the Mediterranean Sea. Along the NE and E low-lying rocky coasts of Malta tens of large boulder deposits have been surveyed, measured and mapped. These boulders have been detached and moved from the seafloor and lowest parts of the coast by the action of sea waves. In the Sicily-Malta channel, heavy storms are common and originate from the NE and NW winds. Conversely, few severe earthquakes and tsunamis are recorded in historical documents to have hit the Maltese archipelago, originated by seismicity activity related mainly to the Malta Escarpment, the Sicily Channel Rift Zone and the Hellenic Arc. We present a multi-disciplinary study, which aims to define the characteristics of the boulder accumulations along the eastern coast of Malta, in order to assess the coastal geo-hazard implications triggered by the sheer ability of extreme waves to detach and move large rocky blocks inland. The wave heights required to transport coastal boulders were calculated using various hydrodynamic equations. Particular attention was devoted to the quantification of the input parameters required in the workings of these equations. The axis sizes of blocks were measured with 3-D digital photogrammetric techniques and their densities were obtained throughout the use of a N-type Schmidt Hammer. Moreover, AMS ages were obtained from selected marine organisms encrusted on some of the boulders in various coastal sites. The combination of the results obtained by hydrodynamic equations and the radiocarbon dating suggests that the majority of the boulders has been detached and moved by intense storm waves. Nonetheless, it is possible that some of them may have been transported by tsunami.

  11. Boulder accumulations related to extreme wave events on the eastern coast of Malta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biolchi, Sara; Furlani, Stefano; Antonioli, Fabrizio; Baldassini, Niccoló; Causon Deguara, Joanna; Devoto, Stefano; Di Stefano, Agata; Evans, Julian; Gambin, Timothy; Gauci, Ritienne; Mastronuzzi, Giuseppe; Monaco, Carmelo; Scicchitano, Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    The accumulation of large boulders related to waves generated by either tsunamis or extreme storm events have been observed in different areas of the Mediterranean Sea. Along the eastern low-lying rocky coasts of Malta, five sites with large boulder deposits have been investigated, measured and mapped. These boulders have been detached and moved from the nearshore and the lowest parts of the coast by sea wave action. In the Sicily-Malta channel, heavy storms are common and originate from the NE and NW winds. Conversely, few tsunamis have been recorded in historical documents to have reached the Maltese archipelago. We present a multi-disciplinary study, which aims to define the characteristics of these boulder accumulations, in order to assess the coastal geo-hazard implications triggered by the sheer ability of extreme waves to detach and move large rocky blocks inland. The wave heights required to transport 77 coastal boulders were calculated using various hydrodynamic equations. Particular attention was given to the quantification of the input parameters required in the workings of these equations, such as size, density and distance from the coast. In addition, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C ages were determined from selected samples of marine organisms encrusted on some of the coastal boulders. The combination of the results obtained both by the hydrodynamic equations, which provided values comparable with those observed and measured during the storms, and radiocarbon dating suggests that the majority of the boulders have been detached and moved by intense storm waves. These boulders testify to the existence of a real hazard for the coasts of Malta, i.e. that of very high storm waves, which, during exceptional storms, are able to detach large blocks of volumes exceeding 10 m3 from the coastal edge and the nearshore bottom, and also to transport them inland. Nevertheless, the occurrence of one or more tsunami events cannot be ruled out, since

  12. Impacts of extreme weather events on highly eutrophic marine ecosystem (Rogoznica Lake, Adriatic coast)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciglenečki, I.; Janeković, I.; Marguš, M.; Bura-Nakić, E.; Carić, M.; Ljubešić, Z.; Batistić, M.; Hrustić, E.; Dupčić, I.; Garić, R.

    2015-10-01

    Rogoznica Lake is highly eutrophic marine system located on the Eastern Adriatic coast (43°32‧N, 15°58‧E). Because of the relatively small size (10,276 m2) and depth (15 m) it experiences strong natural and indirect anthropogenic influences. Dynamics within the lake is characterized by the extreme and highly variable environmental conditions (seasonal variations in salinity and temperature, water stratification and mixing, redox and euxinic conditions, concentrations of nutrients) which significantly influence the biology inside the lake. Due to the high phytoplankton activity, the upper part of the water column is well oxygenated, while hypoxia/anoxia usually occurs in the bottom layers. Anoxic part of the water column is characterized with high concentrations of sulfide (up to 5 mM) and nutrients (NH4+ up to 315 μM; PO43- up to 53 μM; SiO44- up to 680 μM) indicating the pronounced remineralization of the allochthonous organic matter, produced in the surface waters. The mixolimnion varies significantly within a season feeling effects of the Adriatic atmospheric and ocean dynamics (temperature, wind, heat fluxes, rainfall) which all affect the vertical stability and possibly induce vertical mixing and/or turnover. Seasonal vertical mixing usually occurs during the autumn/winter upon the breakdown of the stratification, injecting oxygen-rich water from the surface into the deeper layers. Depending on the intensity and duration of the vertical dynamics (slower diffusion and/or faster turnover of the water layers) anoxic conditions could developed within the whole water column. Extreme weather events such as abrupt change in the air temperature accompanied with a strong wind and consequently heat flux are found to be a key triggering mechanism for the fast turnover, introducing a large amount of nutrients and sulfur species from deeper parts to the surface. Increased concentration of nutrients, especially ammonium, phosphate, and silicates persisting for

  13. Characteristics of the extreme rainfall event and consequent flash floods in W Slovenia in September 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Rusjan

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available During a weather front that passed over large parts of Slovenia on 18.9.2007, extreme rainfall events were triggered causing several severe flash floods with six casualties. Out of 210 municipalities in Slovenia, 60 were reporting flood damages, and the total economic flood damage was later estimated at close to 200 million Euro; highest damage was claimed by Železniki municipality in NW Slovenia. The main purpose of the study presented in this paper was to put together available meteorological and hydrological data in order to get better insight into temporal and spatial dynamics and variability of the flash flood event along the Selška Sora River flowing through the town of Železniki. The weather forecast by the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (ARSO lead to early warning of floodings but has underestimated rainfall amounts by a factor of 2. Also meteorological radar underestimated ground rainfall as much as by 50%. During that day, in many rainfall gauging stations operated by ARSO in the area under investigation, extreme rainfall amounts were measured, e.g. 303 mm in 24 h or 157 mm in 2 h. Some of the measured rainfall amounts were the highest registered amounts in Slovenia so far. Statistical analysis using Gumble distribution was performed and rainfall return periods were estimated. When assessing rainfall return periods, a question of the sampling error as a consequence of short rainfall records used was raised. Furthermore, measured rainfall data were used to reconstruct hydrographs on selected water stations along the Selška Sora River. The cumulative areal precipitation for the Selška Sora River catchment upstream of Železniki amounted to 219 mm, while the modeled effective precipitation used to simulate the hydrograph peak was only 57 mm. The modeled direct runoff coefficient therefore amounts to 0.26. Surprisingly low value is mainly caused by the applied unit hydrograph method that seeks to meet the peak

  14. The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E; Death, Russell G; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E; Milner, Alexander M; Ormerod, Steve J; Thompson, Ross M; Pawar, Samraat

    2016-05-19

    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world. PMID:27114576

  15. The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E; Death, Russell G; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E; Milner, Alexander M; Ormerod, Steve J; Thompson, Ross M; Pawar, Samraat

    2016-05-19

    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.

  16. Learning from today's extreme weather events to increase our resilience to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.

    2009-04-01

    According to the IPCC, flooding is the most widespread serious potential impact of climate change on human settlement. Vulnerability to floods can be thought as a function of exposure and adaptive capacity, and all three entities have been increasing in many areas. Therefore, in order to inform decision-makers, it is crucial to better understand what are the vulnerability factors but also to what extend individuals and societies are capable to adapt their way of life to their changing environment. In this perspective, flash flood events offer a good example of the kind of extremes that our societies may have to face more often in the future. Characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity and small scale, they are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and leave very little lead-time for warnings. In this context, our interdisciplinary team conducts research focusing on individual and human organization responses to warning and crisis situations by using a comprehensive, coupled natural—human system approach over time and space scales. The objective is to understand i) what cognitive and situational factors help individuals and communities to shift from normal daily activities to adapted crisis response and ii) what is the dynamic of this process compared to the one of the natural phenomenon. In this regard, our research learned both from individual perception and behavioral intent survey ("what if" type of survey) than from actual behavioral data gathered in a context of post-event investigations. The review of the literature shows that behavioral intent surveys do not accurately predict warning and crisis response as well as behavioral data do. Knowing that, the difficulty is to obtain consistent and accurate spatio-temporal behavioral data. According to our experience, this is particularly difficult in the context of crisis situations. Behavioral verification requires real-time observations and data collection of indicators

  17. The Role of Axisymmetric Reconnection Events in JET Discharges with Extreme Shear Reversal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    B.C. Stratton; J.A. Breslau; R.V. Budny; S.C. Jardin; W. Park; H.R. Strauss; L.E. Zakharov; B. Alper; V. Drozdov; N.C. Hawkes; S. Reyes-Cortes; and Contributors to the EFDA-JET Work Programme

    2001-12-03

    Injection of Lower Hybrid Heating and Current Drive into the current ramp-up phase of Joint European Torus (JET) discharges can produce extremely reversed q-profiles characterized by a core region of very small or zero current density (within Motional Stark Effect diagnostic measurement errors) and q(subscript min) > 1. T(subscript e)-profiles show sawtooth-like collapses and the presence of an internal transport barrier. Accurate equilibrium reconstructions of these discharges are obtained using the ESC code, which was recently extended to allow equilibrium reconstructions in which a free boundary solver determines the plasma boundary and a fixed boundary solver provides the magnetic geometry and current density profile. The core current density does not appear to go negative, although current diffusion calculations indicate that sufficient non-inductive current drive to cause this is present. This is explained by nonlinear resistive MHD simulations in toroidal geometry which predict that these discharges undergo n=0 reconnection events (axisymmetric sawteeth) that redistribute the current to hold the core current density near zero.

  18. NASA Contributions to Improve Understanding of Extreme Events in the Global Energy and Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, William M.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has established the water cycle goals of the Nation's climate change program. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability. through integration of all necessary observations and research tools, To this end, in conjunction with NASA's Earth science research strategy, the overarching long-term NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) grand challenge can he summarized as documenting and enabling improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. This challenge requires documenting and predicting trends in the rate of the Earth's water and energy cycling that corresponds to climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of naturally occurring related meteorological and hydrologic events, which may vary as climate may vary in the future. The cycling of water and energy has obvious and significant implications for the health and prosperity of our society. The importance of documenting and predicting water and energy cycle variations and extremes is necessary to accomplish this benefit to society.

  19. On extreme transient events from rotating black holes and their gravitational wave emission

    CERN Document Server

    van Putten, Maurice H P M

    2016-01-01

    The super-luminous object ASASSN-15lh (SN2015L) is an extreme event with a total energy $E_{rad}\\simeq 1.1\\times 10^{52}$ erg in black body radiation on par with its kinetic energy $E_k$ in ejecta and a late time plateau in the UV, that defies a nuclear origin. It likely presents a new explosion mechanism for hydrogen-deprived supernovae. With no radio emission and no H-rich environment we propose to identify $E_{rad}$ with dissipation of a baryon-poor outflow in the optically thick remnant stellar envelope produced by a central engine. By negligible time scales of light crossing and radiative cooling of the envelope, SN2015L's light curve closely tracks the evolution of this engine. We here model its light curve by the evolution of black hole spin, during angular momentum loss in Alv\\'en waves to matter at the Inner Most Stable Circular Orbit (ISCO). The duration is determined by $\\sigma=M_T/M$ of the torus mass $M_T$ around the black hole of mass $M$: $\\sigma\\sim 10^{-7}$ and $\\sigma\\sim 10^{-2}$ for SN2015...

  20. Impacts of The Future Changes in Extreme Events on Migration in The Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  1. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. De Simon

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agro-ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter-early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L. Merr.. Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments: cooling (Co, warming (W, mix (M and control (C. An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh, soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in seed germination in both W and M treatments and a delay in germination for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co.

  2. Extreme Violation of Sleep Hygiene: Sleeping Against the Biological Clock During a Multiday Relay Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Maanen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Sleep hygiene is important for sleep quality and optimal performance during the day. However, it is not always possible to follow sleep hygiene requirements. In multiday relay events, athletes have to sleep immediately after physical exertion and sometimes against their biological clock. Objectives In this pilot study we investigated the effect of having to sleep at an abnormal circadian time on sleep duration. Patients and Methods Eight runners and two cyclists performing a 500 km relay race were followed. They were divided into two groups that took turns in running and resting. Each group ran four times for approximately five hours while the other group slept. As a result, sleep times varied between normal and abnormal times. All athletes wore actigraphs to record the duration and onset of sleep. Results Linear mixed model analyses showed that athletes slept on average 43 minutes longer when they slept during usual (night times than during abnormal (day times. In general, sleep duration decreased during the race with on average 18 minutes per period. Conclusions This pilot study shows that, even under extreme violation of sleep hygiene rules, there still is an apparent effect of circadian rhythm on sleep duration in relay race athletes.

  3. Property damage recovery and coping behavior of households affected by an extreme flood event in Marikina City, Metro Manila, Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    JAMIL PAOLO S. FRANCISCO

    2015-01-01

    This study identifies the factors influencing household choice of coping strategy to an extreme flood event in Marikina City in the National Capital Region of the Philippines, as well as household recovery after the event, measured in terms of the length of time to repair, rebuild, or replace damaged property. A survey of 400 households was conducted to obtain data. A multinomial logistic model was used to analyze coping strategy choice among three possible alternatives: (1) reactive and shor...

  4. Plant phenological responses to extreme events - A long term perspective from the Chihuahuan Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, D. M.; Peters, D. P.; Anderson, J.; Yao, J.

    2011-12-01

    Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern USA are especially sensitive to changes in temperature as well as drought frequency and intensity. Timing of periodic life cycle events (i.e., phenology) is an integrated and salient indicator of plant responses to climate change. We examine an 18-year dataset of monthly observations of plant phenology for two species of perennial grasses and a deciduous shrub (honey mesquite) distributed across three upland grassland sites and three mesquite-dominated sites on the Jornada Basin USDA-LTER in southern New Mexico, USA. Precipitation is highly variable between years and across space. Long-term phenology data collection spanned a multi-year drought (1994-2003) followed by a sequence of years with average to very high rainfall (2004 - 2008). Our objective was to compare and contrast responses to extreme dry and wet cycles in the timing and duration of first leaf and fruit production for two grasses (Bouteloua eriopoda [black grama], Sporobolus flexuosus [mesa dropseed]) with one co-existing shrub that has displaced grasses in this system (Prosopis glandulosa [honey mesquite]). Monthly field observations yield estimates of phenological status and abundance for 18 growing seasons from 1993 to 2010. All three species most commonly initiated new growth prior to onset of the monsoon rains (March or April). Timing of first growth for mesquite was less variable (standard deviation = 0.47) than for black grama (SD = 1.42) and mesa dropseed (SD = 1.22) grasses. Initial growth for grasses was delayed to September in 2006 following twelve months of deficit values for PDSI. The appearance of first fruit for grasses occurred consistently in August or September, although the number of plants producing fruit was highly variable from year to year. The largest numbers of fruit-bearing grasses were observed in late fall 2008 in response to heavy monsoon rains in 2006 and 2008. Mesquite demonstrated remarkable synchrony in the production of

  5. Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSweeney, Kendra; Coomes, Oliver T

    2011-03-29

    Two distinct views are evident in research on how rural communities in developing countries cope with extreme weather events brought by climate change: (i) that the resource-reliant poor are acutely vulnerable and need external assistance to prepare for such events, and (ii) that climate-related shocks can offer windows of opportunity in which latent local adaptive capacities are triggered, leading to systemic improvement. Results from a longitudinal study in a Tawahka community in Honduras before and after Hurricane Mitch (1994-2002) indicate that residents were highly vulnerable to the hurricane--due in part to previous development assistance--and that the poorest households were the hardest hit. Surprisingly, however, the disaster enabled the poor to initiate an institutional change that led to more equitable land distribution, slowed primary forest conversion, and positioned the community well to cope with comparable flooding occurring 10 y later. The study provides compelling evidence that communities can seize on the window of opportunity created by climate-induced shocks to generate sustained social-ecological improvement, and suggests that future interventions should foster local capacities for endogenous institutional change to enhance community resilience to climate shocks. PMID:21402909

  6. Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSweeney, Kendra; Coomes, Oliver T

    2011-03-29

    Two distinct views are evident in research on how rural communities in developing countries cope with extreme weather events brought by climate change: (i) that the resource-reliant poor are acutely vulnerable and need external assistance to prepare for such events, and (ii) that climate-related shocks can offer windows of opportunity in which latent local adaptive capacities are triggered, leading to systemic improvement. Results from a longitudinal study in a Tawahka community in Honduras before and after Hurricane Mitch (1994-2002) indicate that residents were highly vulnerable to the hurricane--due in part to previous development assistance--and that the poorest households were the hardest hit. Surprisingly, however, the disaster enabled the poor to initiate an institutional change that led to more equitable land distribution, slowed primary forest conversion, and positioned the community well to cope with comparable flooding occurring 10 y later. The study provides compelling evidence that communities can seize on the window of opportunity created by climate-induced shocks to generate sustained social-ecological improvement, and suggests that future interventions should foster local capacities for endogenous institutional change to enhance community resilience to climate shocks.

  7. Rare events modeling with support vector machine: Application to forecasting large-amplitude geomagnetic substorms and extreme events in financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrishchaka, V. V.; Ganguli, S. B.

    2001-12-01

    Reliable forecasting of rare events in a complex dynamical system is a challenging problem that is important for many practical applications. Due to the nature of rare events, data set available for construction of the statistical and/or machine learning model is often very limited and incomplete. Therefore many widely used approaches including such robust algorithms as neural networks can easily become inadequate for rare events prediction. Moreover in many practical cases models with high-dimensional inputs are required. This limits applications of the existing rare event modeling techniques (e.g., extreme value theory) that focus on univariate cases. These approaches are not easily extended to multivariate cases. Support vector machine (SVM) is a machine learning system that can provide an optimal generalization using very limited and incomplete training data sets and can efficiently handle high-dimensional data. These features may allow to use SVM to model rare events in some applications. We have applied SVM-based system to the problem of large-amplitude substorm prediction and extreme event forecasting in stock and currency exchange markets. Encouraging preliminary results will be presented and other possible applications of the system will be discussed.

  8. Simulations of The Extreme Precipitation Event Enhanced by Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly over the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakan Doǧan, Onur; Önol, Barış

    2016-04-01

    Istanbul Technical University, Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey In this study, we examined the extreme precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using regional climate model, RegCM4. The flood caused by excessive rain in August 26, 2010 killed 12 people and the landslides in Rize province have damaged many buildings. The station based two days total precipitation exceeds 200 mm. One of the usual suspects for this extreme event is positive anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Black Sea where the significant warming trend is clear in the last three decades. In August 2010, the monthly mean SST is higher than 3 °C with respect to the period of 1981-2010. We designed three sensitivity simulations with RegCM4 to define the effects of the Black Sea as a moisture source. The simulation domain with 10-km horizontal resolution covers all the countries bordering the Black Sea and simulation period is defined for entire August 2010. It is also noted that the spatial variability of the precipitation produced by the reference simulation (Sim-0) is consistent with the TRMM data. In terms of analysis of the sensitivity to SST, we forced the simulations by subtracting 1 °C (Sim-1), 2 °C (Sim-2) and 3 °C (Sim-3) from the ERA-Interim 6-hourly SST data (considering only the Black Sea). The sensitivity simulations indicate that daily total precipitation for all these simulations gradually decreased based on the reference simulation (Sim-0). 3-hourly maximum precipitation rates for Sim-0, Sim-1, Sim-2 and Sim-3 are 32, 25, 13 and 10.5 mm respectively over the hotspot region. Despite the fact that the simulations signal points out the same direction, degradation of the precipitation intensity does not indicate the same magnitude for all simulations. It is revealed that 2 °C (Sim-2) threshold is critical for SST sensitivity. We also calculated the humidity differences from the simulation and these

  9. Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm

    2006-08-01

    an acceptable level. Due to the rarity of such extreme events, specific risk prevention measures are hardly justified with exception of attempts to divert earth-orbit crossing meteorites from their dangerous path. For the industry it is particularly important to achieve full transparency as regards covered and non-covered risks and to define in a systematic manner the limits of insurability for super-disasters.

  10. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dooremalen, van C.; Berg, M.P.; Ellers, J.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent

  11. Extreme drought event and shrub invasion combine to reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Maria; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa; Pinto, Joaquim; Bugalho, Miguel; Werner, Christiane

    2016-04-01

    Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience to extreme droughts. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that the native shrub invasion and extreme drought combined to reduce ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during three years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined much stronger (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year. Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species can combine with projected recurrent extreme droughts causing critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome increasing the probability of tree mortality (Caldeira et.al. 2015

  12. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J.

    2013-01-01

    The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more...... frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5......years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme...

  13. Carbon loss and greenhouse gas emission from extreme fire events occurred in Sardinia, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Pellizzaro, G.; Arca, B.; Duce, P.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    It is widely recognized that biomass burning is a significant driver of CO2 cycling and a source of greenhouse gases, aerosol particles, and other chemically reactive atmospheric gases. The large amounts of carbon that fires release into the atmosphere could approach levels of anthropogenic carbon emissions, especially in years of extreme fire activity. CO2 emissions from 2007 forest fires in Greece were in the range of 4.5 Mt, representing about the 4% of the total annual CO2 emissions of that country (http://effis.jrc.it/). Barbosa et al. (2006) reported a similar percentage of fire emissions to total emissions of CO2 in Portugal during the extreme fire seasons of 2003 and 2005. Currently, inventory methods for biomass burning emission use the equation first proposed by Seiler and Crutzen (1980), taking into account the area burned, the amount of biomass burned, and the emission factors associated with each specific chemical species. However, several errors and uncertainties can affect the emission assessment, due to the estimate consistency of the various parameters involved in the equation, including flaming and smoldering combustion periods, appropriate fuel load evaluations and gaseous emission factors for different fuel fractions and fire types. In this context, model approaching can contribute to better appraise fuel consumption and the resultant emissions. In addition, more comprehensive and accurate data inputs would be of valuable help for predicting and quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions. The purpose of this work is to explore the impacts of extreme fire events occurred in Sardinia Island (Italy) using an integrated approach combining modelling fire emissions, field observations and remotely-sensed data. In order to achieve realistic fire emission estimates, we used the FOFEM model, due to the necessity to use a consistent modeling methodology across source categories, the input required, and its ability to estimate flaming and

  14. Interannual and Intraseasonal oscillations and extreme events over South America simulated by HIGEM models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio, Maria; Ambrizzi, Tercio

    2014-05-01

    -90 days) timescales using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events were analyzed in six sub-regions of SA. The criterion for selection of extremes was based on the quartiles of rainfall anomalies in the bands of interest. The interannual variability analysis showed that coupled simulations intensify the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Amazon and southeastern of SA. In the Intraseasonal scale, although the simulations intensify this signal, the coupled models present larger similarities with observations than the atmospheric models for the extremes of precipitation in the SA. Note that there are differences between simulated and observed IS anomalies indicating that the models have problems to correctly represent the intensity of low frequency phenomena in this scale. The simulation of ENSO in GCMs can be attributed to their high resolution, mainly in the oceanic component, which contributes to the better solution of the small scale vortices in the ocean. This implies in improvements in the forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) and as consequence in the ability of atmosphere to respond to this feature.

  15. The applicability of OSL as a sedimentological proxy: new avenues to distinguish extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, G. I.

    2012-12-01

    Signature underwater tsunami deposits have been relatively recently found in the upper Mediterranean shelf offshore Israel. They have been attributed as a potential cause for the demise of the ancient Roman city of Caesarea Maritima and its artificial Herodian harbour of Sebastos. Present annual large winter storm activity (2010-2011; waves heights up to 14 m) has severely impacted the area, showing increased coastal erosion and rigorous movement of nearshore sands, complicating the stratigraphical histories of the near offshore record. Recent sedimentological and geoarchaeological studies conducted in and around the harbour have been aimed to investigate extreme event characterization by different means, using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL). A comparative study of modern and palaeo-storm sediments was launched in order to obtain physical correlation between offshore sediments, enabling further comparison with historical tsunami deposits, as well as modern and ancient sands emplaced during normal marine conditions. A suite of previously collected and identified sediment samples was selected from the same area where the modern storm analogues were collected. The palaeo-samples came from long-vertical hydraulic percussion cores (14-30 m depths) and small horizontal tubes pushed into excavated underwater sediment walls (2-12 m depths). The uniqueness of OSL relays on its capacity to date the last time a mineral grain was effectively exposed to sunlight, just prior to its burial. It is intrinsically related to final depositional process, which should reflect the completeness of the OSL signal resetting (zeroing process), evidenced by the normality and modality of the Equivalent Dose (DE) distribution. In Optical Dating, DE over-dispersion values have been used as a measure of inhomogeneitiy in the natural palaeo-dose of sediments. Such heterogeneity can be due to an array of causes, including insufficient zeroing during transport and deposition, or turbation

  16. Producing physically consistent and bias free extreme precipitation events over the Switzerland: Bridging gaps between meteorology and impact models

    Science.gov (United States)

    José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro; Martius, Olivia; Felder, Guido

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation episodes, although rare, are natural phenomena that can threat human activities, especially in areas densely populated such as Switzerland. Their relevance demands the design of public policies that protect public assets and private property. Therefore, increasing the current understanding of such exceptional situations is required, i.e. the climatic characterisation of their triggering circumstances, severity, frequency, and spatial distribution. Such increased knowledge shall eventually lead us to produce more reliable projections about the behaviour of these events under ongoing climate change. Unfortunately, the study of extreme situations is hampered by the short instrumental record, which precludes a proper characterization of events with return period exceeding few decades. This study proposes a new approach that allows studying storms based on a synthetic, but physically consistent database of weather situations obtained from a long climate simulation. Our starting point is a 500-yr control simulation carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In a second step, this dataset is dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to a final resolution of 2 km over the Alpine area. However, downscaling the full CESM simulation at such high resolution is infeasible nowadays. Hence, a number of case studies are previously selected. This selection is carried out examining the precipitation averaged in an area encompassing Switzerland in the ESM. Using a hydrological criterion, precipitation is accumulated in several temporal windows: 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and 10 days. The 4 most extreme events in each category and season are selected, leading to a total of 336 days to be simulated. The simulated events are affected by systematic biases that have to be accounted before this data set can be used as input in hydrological models. Thus, quantile mapping is used to remove such biases. For this task

  17. The spatial distribution of extreme climate events, another climate inequity for the world’s most vulnerable people

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Donna

    2016-09-01

    Does the climate change signal emerge equally from internal climate variability across the globe? If not, are there particular locations where temperature extremes might disproportionately affect specific populations? The letter by Harrington et al (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 055007) argues that people living in low latitude countries, which contain the majority of the world’s poorest people, are—and will continue to be—disproportionately affected by increases in temperature extremes. Due to differences in expertise of climate scientists, and climate impact and adaptation scientists, few climate extreme event analyses are spatially disaggregated and linked to local populations’ socio-economic characteristics. The research presented in this letter begins to bridge this gap by providing evidence of inequitable spatial impacts from climate extremes on the world’s poorest people.

  18. Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

  19. Extreme climatic events: impacts of drought and high temperature on physiological processes in agronomically important plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urs eFeller

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate models predict more frequent and more severe extreme events (e.g. heat waves, extended drought periods, flooding in many regions for the next decades. The impact of adverse environmental conditions on crop plants is ecologically and economically relevant. This review is focused on drought and heat effects on physiological status and productivity of agronomically important plants. Stomatal opening represents an important regulatory mechanism during drought and heat stress since it influences simultaneously water loss via transpiration and CO2 diffusion into the leaf apoplast which further is utilized in photosynthesis. Along with the reversible short-term control of stomatal opening, stomata and leaf epidermis may produce waxy deposits and irreversibly down-regulate the stomatal conductance and non-stomatal transpiration. As a consequence photosynthesis will be negatively affected. Rubisco activase - a key enzyme in keeping the Calvin cycle functional – is heat-sensitive and may become a limiting factor at elevated temperature. The accumulated reactive oxygen species during stress represent an additional challenge under unfavorable conditions. Drought and heat cause accumulation of free amino acids which are partially converted into compatible solutes such as proline. This is accompanied by lower rates of both nitrate reduction and de novo amino acid biosynthesis. Protective proteins (e.g. dehydrins, chaperones, antioxidant enzymes or the key enzyme for proline biosynthesis play an important role in leaves and may be present at higher levels under water deprivation or high temperatures. On the whole plant level, effects on long-distance translocation of solutes via xylem and phloem and on leaf senescence (e.g. anticipated, accelerated or delayed senescence are important. The factors mentioned above are relevant for the overall performance of crops under drought and heat and must be considered for genotype selection and breeding programs.

  20. The Physical Processes of Eruptive Flares Revealed By An Extremely-Long-Duration Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhou, Zhenjun

    2016-05-01

    In this work, we report the physical processes of eruptive flares inferred from an extremely- long-duration event occurred on June 21, 2011. The flare, peaked at C7.7 level, had a two-hour-long rise time in soft X-rays emission; this rise time is much longer than the typical rise time of solar flares that last for only about ten minutes. Combining the fact that the flare occurred near the disk center as seen by SDO, but near the limbs as seen by STEREO A and B, we are able to track the evolution of the eruption in 3-D as well as in a rare slow-motion manner. The time sequence of temperature maps, constructed from six corona-temperature passbands of AIA, clearly shows process of how the highly-twisted sigmoid structure prior to the eruption is transformed into a near-potential post-eruption loop arcade. The observed sigmoid is likely to be the structure of a twisted magnetic flux rope, which reached a height of about 60 Mm at the onset of the eruption. The onset is likely triggered by the torus instability (or loss of equilibrium) of the flux rope as indicated by the slow rise motion prior to the impulsive phase. We also find that the complex evolution of footprints of the eruption as seen from AIA transition region images is consistent with the magnetic evolution in the corona, which is the consequence of the combined effects of the expansion of the magnetic flux rope and the magnetic reconnection of surrounding magnetic fields.

  1. Extreme events in Italy from documentary sources: Venice as a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venice risks to be submerged as a consequence of two problems: local land subsidence and sea level rise due to global warming. They both contribute to what is referred as Apparent Sea Level Rise (ASLR). Flooding Tides (locally: Acqua Alta) submerge Venice with an exponentially increasing frequency. The Acqua Alta is generated by a number of factors, the main of them being the Sirocco wind blowing over the Adriatic Sea, that ultimately displaces waters towards Venice. These extreme events have been investigated by using the documentary description of past floods, accurately reported over the last millennium, and tide gauge records for the recent period. A fundamental problem is to know the trend of the ASLR, possibly distinguishing between land subsidence and sea level components. Instrumental data go back to 1872 and a key point is to extend our knowledge back in time. Long-term ASLR has been investigated with the help of a biological indicator, the height of the green belt of the algae that live in the tidal range and whose upper front shows the average high tide level. Fortunately, in the first half of the 18. century, this indicator was accurately drawn by the famous painter Antonio Canaletto (1697-1768) and his pupils, mainly Bernardo Bellotto (1722-1780), in their photographic paintings made with an optical 'camera obscura'. It has been possible to compare the tidal level, as it was in the 1700s and today. After careful spot investigation and minor corrections for some changes to the hydrological system occurred in the meantime, the bulk submersion of Venice estimated from the paintings is 61±11 cm with average yearly trend 1.9 mm y-1

  2. Economic Fluctuations and Statistical Physics: Quantifying Extremely Rare and Much Less Rare Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, H. Eugene

    2008-03-01

    Recent analysis of truly huge quantities of empirical data suggests that classic economic theories not only fail for a few outliers, but that there occur similar outliers of every possible size. In fact, if one analyzes only a small data set (say 10^4 data points), then outliers appear to occur as ``rare events.'' However, when we analyze orders of magnitude more data (10^8 data points!), we find orders of magnitude more outliers---so ignoring them is not a responsible option, and studying their properties becomes a realistic goal. We find that the statistical properties of these ``outliers'' are identical to the statistical properties of everyday fluctuations. For example, a histogram giving the number of fluctuations of a given magnitude x for fluctuations ranging in magnitude from everyday fluctuations to extremely rare fluctuations that occur with a probability of only 10-8 is a perfect straight line in a double-log plot. Quantitative analogies between financial fluctuations and earthquakes will be discussed. Two unifying principles that underlie much of the finance analysis we will present are scale invariance and universality [R. N. Mantegna and H. E. Stanley, Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations & Complexity in Finance/ (Cambridge U. Press, 2000)]. Scale invariance is a property not about algebraic equations but rather about functional equations, which have as their solutions not numbers but rather functional forms. The key idea of universality is that the identical set of laws hold across diverse markets, and over diverse time periods. This work was carried out in collaboration with a number of students and colleagues, chief among whom are X. Gabaix (MIT and Princeton) and V. Plerou (Boston University).

  3. Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting

  4. Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting

  5. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

    2016-02-01

    In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days/decade, P = 0.0001) during 1960-2013. Most of stations with significant changes in SDII and CDD occurred in central and southeastern Loess Plateau. However, the changes in days of erosive rainfall, heavy rain, rainstorm, maximum 5-day precipitation, and very-wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

  6. Climate Model Simulation of Present and Future Extreme Events in Latin America and the Caribbean: What Spatial Resolution is Required?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, C. M.; Oglesby, R. J.; Mawalagedara, R.; Mohammad Abadi Kamarei, A.

    2015-12-01

    Latin America and the Caribbean are at risk of extreme climate events, including flooding rains, damaging winds, drought, heat waves, and in high elevation mountainous regions, excessive snowfalls. The causes of these events are numerous - flooding rains and damaging winds are often associated with tropical cyclones, but also can occur, either separately or in tandem, due to smaller, more localized storms. Similarly, heat waves and droughts can be large scale or localized, and frequently occur together (as excessive drying can lead to enhanced heating, while enhanced heating in turn promotes additional drying). Even in the tropics, extreme snow and ice events can have severe consequences due to avalanches, and also impact water resources. Understanding and modeling the climate controls behind these extreme events requires consideration of a range of time and space scales. A common strategy is to use a global climate model (GCM) to simulate the large-scale (~100km) daily atmospheric controls on extreme events. A limited area, high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is then employed to dynamically downscale the results, so as to better incorporate the influence of topography and, secondarily, the nature of the land cover. But what resolution is required to provide the necessary results, i.e., minimize biases due to improper resolution? In conjunction with our partners from participating Latin American and Caribbean nations, we have made an extensive series of simulations, both region-wide and for individual countries, using the WRF regional climate model to downscale output from a variety of GCMs, as well as Reanalyses (as a proxy for observations). The simulations driven by the Reanalyses are used for robust model verification against actual weather station observations. The simulations driven by GCMs are designed to provide projections of future climate, including importantly how the nature and number of extreme events may change through coming decades. Our

  7. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  8. Detection of planets in extremely weak central perturbation microlensing events via next-generation ground-based surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Chung, Sun-Ju; Koo, Jae-Rim

    2014-01-01

    Even though the recently discovered high-magnification event MOA-2010-BLG-311 had complete coverage over the peak, confident planet detection did not happen due to extremely weak central perturbations (fractional deviations of $\\lesssim 2\\%$). For confident detection of planets in extremely weak central perturbation (EWCP) events, it is necessary to have both high cadence monitoring and high photometric accuracy better than those of current follow-up observation systems.The next-generation ground-based observation project, KMTNet (Korea Microlensing Telescope Network), satisfies the conditions. We estimate the probability of occurrence of EWCP events with fractional deviations of $\\leq 2\\%$ in high-magnification events and the efficiency of detecting planets in the EWCP events using the KMTNet. From this study, we find that the EWCP events occur with a frequency of $> 50\\%$ in the case of $\\lesssim 100\\ M_{\\rm E}$ planets with separations of $0.2\\ {\\rm AU} \\lesssim d \\lesssim 20\\ {\\rm AU}$. We find that for m...

  9. Impacts of extreme temperature events on mortality: analysis over individual seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, J.; Plavcova, E.; Kyncl, J.; Kriz, B.; Pokorna, L.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme temperature events influence human society in many ways, including impacts on morbidity and mortality. While the effects of hot summer periods are relatively direct in mid-latitudinal regions, much less is known and little consensus has been achieved about possible consequences of both positive and negative temperature extremes in other parts of year. The study examines links between spells of hot and cold temperature anomalies and daily all-cause (total) mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) in individual seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON). The datasets cover the period 1986-2006. Hot (cold) spells are defined in terms of anomalies of average daily temperature from the mean annual cycle as periods of at least 2 successive days on which the anomalies are above (below) the 95% (5%) quantile of the empirical distribution of the anomalies. Excess daily mortality is established by calculating deviations of the observed number of deaths and the expected number of deaths, which takes into account effects of long-term changes in mortality and the annual cycle. Periods when mortality is affected by influenza and acute respiratory infection outbreaks have been identified and excluded from the datasets before the analysis. The study is carried out for several population groups in order to identify dependence of the mortality impacts on age and gender; in particular, we focus on differences in the impacts on the elderly (70+ yrs) and younger age groups (0-69 yrs). Although results for hot- and cold-related mortality are less conclusive in the other seasons outside summer, significant links are found in several cases. The analysis reveals that - the largest effects of either hot or cold spells are observed for hot spells in JJA, with a 14% (16%) increase in mortality for the 1-day lag for all ages (70+ yrs); - much smaller but still significant effects are associated with hot spells in MAM; - the

  10. The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

    2016-04-01

    There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water

  11. Impact of Extreme Events and Soil Hydraulic Conductivity on the Evolution of a Mesa-top Waste Repository Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, K. J.; Wilson, C. J.; Lane, L. J.; Newman, B. D.; Schofield, T. G.

    2005-12-01

    The Siberia model was used to optimize the design of a mesa-top waste repository cover at Los Alamos National Laboratory on the Pajarito Plateau in Northern New Mexico, USA. The cover was designed to meet criteria that the depth to waste from the cover surface would be greater than 1 meter after 1000 years of erosion. The model was run using two steady-state landscape forming events (2 and 5 year return periods) derived from a 20 year data set at the Santa Rita Experimental Watershed in Arizona, and hydraulic properties of two soils, loam and sandy loam. Although we were able to show that the final design cover met the performance criteria for both high and moderate erosion scenarios, concerns remained about the impact of extreme events. In addition, Hydrus simulations, based on saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) measurements from cores of cover material comprised of crushed tuff and a bentonite admixture, suggested that surface runoff on the cover might be orders of magnitude higher than the landscape forming runoff events used for the Siberia simulations. The Siberia runoff events were based on Ksat values for loam and sandy loam soils with identical texture (% sand , silt and clay) to the engineered cover soil, but these values assume soil structure that may or may not develop in the engineered cover. This work summarizes the impacts of both 1) the timing and size of extreme events and 2) the impact of soil structure and Ksat, on long-term repository cover evolution.

  12. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenchuk, Philipp R; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J

    2013-08-01

    The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often occurring

  13. Extreme climate events,migration for cultivation and policies:A case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Based on the historical records of the annual increase in the workforce (men older than 16 years of age), the annual new taxed cropland in the Shengjing area (Northeast China), the extreme climate events in North China, and related management policies in Northeast China during 1661―1680, a case study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the extreme climate events in North China and the migration to Northeast China for cultivation. This study has found that the migration to Northeast China for cultivation from 1661 to 1680 was a response to the drought events that occurred in North China. The upsurge of migration, which occurred in 1665―1680, was a response to the drought period during 1664―1680 in North China while the fewer disasters period in Northeast China. There were three migratory peaks during the upsurge of migration, which corresponded to the three drought events. The peaks of migration, however, often lagged behind the drought events about 1―2 years. The encourag-ing-migration policy, which was adopted to encourage cultivation in Northeast China, did not produce much migration into the region in the early Qing Dynasty. It did, however, provide a policy background, which ensured more than 10000 migrants per year to Northeast China when North China suffered from drought/flood disasters. As a response to the highest peak of migration induced by the severe droughts in North China during 1664―1667, a prohibiting-migration policy restricted further migration to Northeast China was carried out in 1668. Although the prohibiting-migration policy could not entirely stop the migrants fleeing from famine in North China to Northeast China, the migrants and cultivation were significantly reduced under the policy. The frequent changes of the policy on the years when taxation started after the land was cultivated were also related to climate events. The extreme climate events in North China, migration to Northeast China for cultivation

  14. Extreme climate events, migration for cultivation and policies: A case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG XiuQi; YE Yu; ZENG ZaoZao

    2007-01-01

    Based on the historical records of the annual increase in the workforce(men older than 16 years of age),the annual new taxed cropland in the Shengjing area (Northeast China),the extreme climate events in North China,and related management policies in Northeast China during 1661-1680,a case study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the extreme climate events in North China and the migration to Northeast China for cultivation.This study has found that the migration to Northeast China for cultivation from 1661 to 1680 was a response to the drought events that occurred in North China.The upsurge of migration,which occurred in 1665-1680,was a response to the drought period during 1664-1680 in North China while the fewer disasters period in Northeast China.There were three migratory peaks during the upsurge of migration,which corresponded to the three drought events.The peaks of migration,however,often lagged behind the drought events about 1-2 years.The encouraging-migration policy,which was adopted to encourage cultivation in Northeast China,did not produce much migration into the region in the early Qing Dynasty.It did,however,provide a policy background,which ensured more than 10000 migrants per year to Northeast China when North China suffered from drought/flood disasters.As a response to the highest peak of migration induced by the severe droughts in North China during 1664-1667,a prohibiting-migration policy restricted further migration to Northeast China was carried out in 1668.Although the prohibiting-migration policy could not entirely stop the migrants fleeing from famine in North China to Northeast China,the migrants and cultivation were significantly reduced under the policy.The frequent changes of the policy on the years when taxation started after the land was cultivated were also related to climate events.The extreme climate events in North China,migration to Northeast China for cultivation,and the related management policies showed

  15. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenchuk, Philipp R; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often

  16. Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Tim L

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios. PMID:23835423

  17. Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Tim L

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

  18. Projecting future climate change effects on the extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin, China

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, F.; San, Y. Y.; Li, Y.; Ma, M.; Ren, L.; Zhao, C; Liu, Y; Yang, X.; Jiang, S.; H Shen

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a framework to project the potential future climate change impacts on extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin in North China is presented. This framework includes a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from a regional climate model for historical streamflow simulations and future streamflow projections, and models for univariate drought assessment and copula-based bivariate drought analysis. It is projected by the univa...

  19. Managing Expectations: Results from Case Studies of US Water Utilities on Preparing for, Coping with, and Adapting to Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beller-Simms, N.; Metchis, K.

    2014-12-01

    Water utilities, reeling from increased impacts of successive extreme events such as floods, droughts, and derechos, are taking a more proactive role in preparing for future incursions. A recent study by Federal and water foundation investigators, reveals how six US water utilities and their regions prepared for, responded to, and coped with recent extreme weather and climate events and the lessons they are using to plan future adaptation and resilience activities. Two case studies will be highlighted. (1) Sonoma County, CA, has had alternating floods and severe droughts. In 2009, this area, home to competing water users, namely, agricultural crops, wineries, tourism, and fisheries faced a three-year drought, accompanied at the end by intense frosts. Competing uses of water threatened the grape harvest, endangered the fish industry and resulted in a series of regulations, and court cases. Five years later, new efforts by partners in the entire watershed have identified mutual opportunities for increased basin sustainability in the face of a changing climate. (2) Washington DC had a derecho in late June 2012, which curtailed water, communications, and power delivery during a record heat spell that impacted hundreds of thousands of residents and lasted over the height of the tourist-intensive July 4th holiday. Lessons from this event were applied three months later in anticipation of an approaching Superstorm Sandy. This study will help other communities in improving their resiliency in the face of future climate extremes. For example, this study revealed that (1) communities are planning with multiple types and occurrences of extreme events which are becoming more severe and frequent and are impacting communities that are expanding into more vulnerable areas and (2) decisions by one sector can not be made in a vacuum and require the scientific, sectoral and citizen communities to work towards sustainable solutions.

  20. High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

    2016-04-01

    Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions < 6 km. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March 2003. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

  1. Insurance as an adaptation strategy for extreme weather events indeveloping countries and economies in transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan

    2004-06-30

    thisperiod, insurance covered four percent of total costs of weather-relateddisasters in emerging markets compared to 40 percent in high-incomecountries. While relatively small, insurance payments to people inemerging markets associated with these losses were three-times themagnitude of international aid. The potential for changes in weatherpatterns, including both average conditions and extreme events, wouldlikely raise the demand for insurance whether the changes area resultnatural variability or human-induced climate change. At the same time,increases in weather-related damage create uncertainties and challengeinsurers ability and willingness to assume or affordably price these newrisks. Sustainable development can contribute to managing and maintainingthe insurability of these risks and thereby reduce the need forindividuals and governments to absorb the costs.Because of themulti-national structure of the insurance a

  2. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  3. The 2012 July 23 Backside Eruption: An Extreme Energetic Particle Event?

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Thakur, Neeharika; Mäkelä, Pertti; Xie, Hong; Akiyama, Sachiko

    2016-01-01

    The backside coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 July 23 had a short Sun to Earth shock transit time (18.5 hours). The associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event had a >10 MeV proton flux peaking at ~5000 pfu, and the energetic storm particle (ESP) event was an order of magnitude larger, making it the most intense event in the space era at these energies. By a detailed analysis of the CME, shock, and SEP characteristics, we find that the July 23 event is consistent with a high-energy SEP event (accelerating particles to GeV energies). The time of maximum and fluence spectra in the range 10-100 MeV were very hard, similar to those of ground level enhancement (GLE) events. We found a hierarchical relationship between the CME initial speeds and the fluence spectral indices: CMEs with low initial speeds had SEP events with the softest spectra, while those with highest initial speeds had SEP events with the hardest spectra. CMEs attaining intermediate speeds result in moderately hard spectra. The July 23 even...

  4. Comparison of pointwise and regional statistical approaches to detect non stationarity in extreme rainfall events. Application to the Sahelian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Lebel, T.; Quantin, G.; Favre, A.; Blanchet, J.; Ali, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studying trends in rainfall extremes at regional scale is required to provide reference climatology to evaluate General Circulation Model global predictions as well as to help managing and designing hydraulic works. The present study compares three methods to detect trends (linear and change-point) in series of daily rainfall annual maxima: (i) The first approach is widely used and consist in applying statistical stationarity tests (linear trend and change-point) on the point-wise maxima series; (ii) The second approach compares the performances of a constant and a time dependent Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fitted to the point-wise maxima series. (iii) The last method uses an original regional statistical model based on space-time GEV distribution which is used to detect changes in rainfall extremes directly at regional scale. The three methods are applied to detect trends in extreme daily rainfall over the Sahel during the period 1950-1990 for which a network of 128 daily rain gages is available. This region has experienced an intense drought since the end of the 1960s; it is thus an interesting case-study to illustrate how a regional climate change can affect the extreme rainfall distributions. One major result is that the statistical stationarity tests rarely detect non-stationarities in the series while the two GEV-based models converge to show that the extreme rainfall series have a negative break point around 1970. The study points out the limit of the widely used classical stationarity tests to detect trends in noisy series affected by sampling errors. The use of parametric time-dependent GEV seems to reduce this effect especially when a regional approach is used. From a climatological point of view, the results show that the great Sahelian drought has been accompanied by a decrease of extreme rainfall events, both in magnitude and occurence.

  5. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle events of September–October 1989 on polar stratospheric aerosols: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ionization source of the middle and low Earth's atmosphere is related to energetic particles coming from outer space. Usually it is ionization from cosmic rays that is always present in the atmosphere. But in a case of a very strong solar eruption, some solar energetic particles (SEPs can reach middle/low atmosphere increasing the ionization rate up to some orders of magnitude at polar latitudes. We continue investigating such a special class of solar events and their possible applications for natural variations of the aerosol content. After the case study of the extreme SEP event of January 2005 and its possible effect upon polar stratospheric aerosols, here we analyze atmospheric applications of the sequence of several events that took place over autumn 1989. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from two satellites with space-borne optical instruments SAGE II and SAM II that were operating during September–October 1989, we found that an extreme major SEP event might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, the effect of the additional ambient air ionization on the aerosol formation is minor, in comparison with temperature effect, and can take place only in the cold polar atmospheric conditions. The extra aerosol mass formed under the temperature effect allows attributing most of the changes to the "ion–aerosol clear sky mechanism".

  6. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle events of September–October 1989 on polar stratospheric aerosols: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main ionization source of the middle and low Earth atmosphere is related to energetic particles coming from outer space. Usually it is ionization from cosmic rays that is always present in the atmosphere. But in a case of a very strong solar eruption some solar energetic particles (SEP can reach middle/low atmosphere increasing the ionization rate up to some orders of magnitude at polar latitudes. We continue investigating such a special class of solar events and their possible applications for natural variations of the aerosol content. After the case study of the extreme SEP event of January 2005 and its possible effect upon polar stratospheric aerosols, here we analyze atmospheric applications of the second sequence of several events that took place over the Autumn 1989. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from two satellites with space-borne optical instruments SAGE II and SAM II that were operating during September–October 1989, we found that an extreme major SEP event might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, the effect of the additional ambient air ionization on the aerosol formation is minor, in comparison with temperature effect, and can take place only in the cold polar atmospheric conditions.

  7. Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.

  8. Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jong-Suk [School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People' s Republic of China (China); Jain, Shaleen, E-mail: shaleen.jain@maine.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469-5711 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.

  9. Risk Management in the Original Extreme Sporting Event: The Pole Vault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemiller, Jim; Hardin, Robin

    2010-01-01

    The pole vault was considered the ultimate test of physical ability and daring before the advent of modern extreme sports such as skateboarding, snowboarding, and mountain biking. The inherent risks of the pole vault have been well documented. The National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research reported in 2007 that the catastrophic injury…

  10. Numerical simulation of runoff from extreme rainfall events in a mountain water catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Burguete

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical model for unsteady shallow water flow over initially dry areas is applied to a case study in a small drainage area at the Spanish Ebro River basin. Several flood mitigation measures (reforestation, construction of a small reservoir and channelization are simulated in the model in order to compare different extreme rainfall-runoff scenarios.

  11. Lower extremity injury criteria for evaluating military vehicle occupant injury in underbelly blast events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Brian J; Bir, Cynthia A

    2009-11-01

    Anti-vehicular (AV) landmines and improvised explosive devices (IED) have accounted for more than half of the United States military hostile casualties and wounded in Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) (Department of Defense Personnel & Procurement Statistics, 2009). The lower extremity is the predominantly injured body region following an AV mine or IED blast accounting for 26 percent of all combat injuries in OIF (Owens et al., 2007). Detonations occurring under the vehicle transmit high amplitude and short duration axial loads onto the foot-ankle-tibia region of the occupant causing injuries to the lower leg. The current effort was initiated to develop lower extremity injury criteria for occupants involved in underbelly blast impacts. Eighteen lower extremity post mortem human specimens (PMHS) were instrumented with an implantable load cell and strain gages and impacted at one of three incrementally severe AV axial loading conditions. Twelve of the 18 PMHS specimens sustained fractures of the calcaneus, talus, fibula and/or tibia. The initiation of skeletal injury was precisely detected by strain gages and corresponded with local peak axial tibia force. Survival analysis identified peak axial tibia force and impactor velocity as the two best predictors of incapacitating injury. A tibia axial force of 5,931 N and impactor velocity of 10.8 m/s corresponds with a 50 percent risk of an incapacitating injury. The criteria may be utilized to predict the probability of lower extremity incapacitating injury in underbelly blast impacts. PMID:20058557

  12. The imprint of extreme climate events in century-long time series of wood anatomical traits in high-elevation conifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eCarrer

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climate events are of key importance for forest ecosystems. However, both the inherent infrequency, stochasticity and multiplicity of extreme climate events, and the array of biological responses, challenges investigations. To cope with the long life cycle of trees and the paucity of the extreme events themselves, our inferences should be based on long-term observations. In this context, tree rings and the related xylem anatomical traits represent promising sources of information, due to the wide time perspective and quality of the information they can provide.Here we test, on two high-elevation conifers (Larix decidua and Picea abies sampled at 2100 m a.s.l. in the Eastern Alps, the associations among temperature extremes during the growing season and xylem anatomical traits, specifically the number of cells per ring (CN, cell wall thickness (CWT and cell diameter (CD. To better track the effect of extreme events over the growing season, tree rings were partitioned in 10 sectors. Climate variability has been reconstructed, for 1800-2011 at monthly resolution and for 1926-2011 at daily resolution, by exploiting the excellent availability of very long and high quality instrumental records available for the surrounding area, and taking into account the relationship between meteorological variables and site topographical settings.Summer temperature influenced anatomical traits of both species, and tree-ring anatomical profiles resulted as being associated to temperature extremes. Most of the extreme values in anatomical traits occurred with warm (positive extremes or cold (negative conditions. However, 0% - 34% of occurrences did not match a temperature extreme event. Specifically, CWT and CN extremes were more clearly associated to climate than CD, which presented a bias to track cold extremes.Dendroanatomical analysis, coupled to high-quality daily-resolved climate records, seems a promising approach to study the effects of extreme events

  13. The Imprint of Extreme Climate Events in Century-Long Time Series of Wood Anatomical Traits in High-Elevation Conifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrer, Marco; Brunetti, Michele; Castagneri, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climate events are of key importance for forest ecosystems. However, both the inherent infrequency, stochasticity and multiplicity of extreme climate events, and the array of biological responses, challenges investigations. To cope with the long life cycle of trees and the paucity of the extreme events themselves, our inferences should be based on long-term observations. In this context, tree rings and the related xylem anatomical traits represent promising sources of information, due to the wide time perspective and quality of the information they can provide. Here we test, on two high-elevation conifers (Larix decidua and Picea abies sampled at 2100 m a.s.l. in the Eastern Alps), the associations among temperature extremes during the growing season and xylem anatomical traits, specifically the number of cells per ring (CN), cell wall thickness (CWT), and cell diameter (CD). To better track the effect of extreme events over the growing season, tree rings were partitioned in 10 sectors. Climate variability has been reconstructed, for 1800-2011 at monthly resolution and for 1926-2011 at daily resolution, by exploiting the excellent availability of very long and high quality instrumental records available for the surrounding area, and taking into account the relationship between meteorological variables and site topographical settings. Summer temperature influenced anatomical traits of both species, and tree-ring anatomical profiles resulted as being associated to temperature extremes. Most of the extreme values in anatomical traits occurred with warm (positive extremes) or cold (negative) conditions. However, 0-34% of occurrences did not match a temperature extreme event. Specifically, CWT and CN extremes were more clearly associated to climate than CD, which presented a bias to track cold extremes. Dendroanatomical analysis, coupled to high-quality daily-resolved climate records, seems a promising approach to study the effects of extreme events on trees

  14. Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Si, Ha; Dong, Zhenhua; Cao, Tiehua; Lan, Wu

    2016-08-01

    Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.

  15. Probing collective effects in hadronisation with the extremes of the underlying event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Skands, P.; Farrington, S.

    2016-05-01

    We define a new set of observables to probe the structure of the underlying event in hadron collisions. We use the conventional definition of the "transverse region" in jet events and, for a fixed window in jet p_perp , propose to measure several discriminating quantities as a function of the level of activity in the transverse region. The measurement of these observables in LHC data would reveal whether, e.g., the properties of "low-UE" events are compatible with equivalent measurements in e^+e^- collisions (jet universality), and whether the scaling behaviour towards "high-UE" events exhibits properties of non-trivial soft-QCD dynamics, such as colour reconnections or other collective phenomena. We illustrate at √{s} = 13 {TeV} that significant discriminatory power is obtained in comparisons between MC models with varying treatments of collective effects, including Pythia 8, epos, and Dipsy.

  16. Probing Collective Effects in Hadronisation with the Extremes of the Underlying Event

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Tim; Farrington, Sinead

    2016-01-01

    We define a new set of observables to probe the structure of the underlying event in hadron collisions. We use the conventional definition of the `transverse region' in jet events and, for a fixed window in jet $p_\\perp$, propose to measure several discriminating quantities as a function of the level of activity in the transverse region. The measurement of these observables in LHC data would reveal whether, e.g., the properties of `low-UE' events are compatible with equivalent measurements in $e^+e^-$ collisions (jet universality), and whether the scaling behaviour towards `high-UE' events exhibits properties of non-trivial soft-QCD dynamics, such as colour re-connections or other collective phenomena. We illustrate at $\\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV that significant discriminatory power is obtained in comparisons between MC models with varying treatments of collective effects, including Pythia 8, EPOS, and Dipsy.

  17. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  18. Toward Improving Predictability of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events: the Use of Multi-scale Climate Modeling in the Northern High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Torres-Alavez, J.; Mohamad Abadi, A.; Walko, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    Our goal is to investigate possible sources of predictability of hydrometeorological extreme events in the Northern High Plains. Hydrometeorological extreme events are considered the most costly natural phenomena. Water deficits and surpluses highlight how the water-climate interdependence becomes crucial in areas where single activities drive economies such as Agriculture in the NHP. Nonetheless we recognize the Water-Climate interdependence and the regulatory role that human activities play, we still grapple to identify what sources of predictability could be added to flood and drought forecasts. To identify the benefit of multi-scale climate modeling and the role of initial conditions on flood and drought predictability on the NHP, we use the Ocean Land Atmospheric Model (OLAM). OLAM is characterized by a dynamic core with a global geodesic grid with hexagonal (and variably refined) mesh cells and a finite volume discretization of the full compressible Navier Stokes equations, a cut-grid cell method for topography (that reduces error in computational gradient computation and anomalous vertical dispersion). Our hypothesis is that wet conditions will drive OLAM's simulations of precipitation to wetter conditions affecting both flood forecast and drought forecast. To test this hypothesis we simulate precipitation during identified historical flood events followed by drought events in the NHP (i.e. 2011-2012 years). We initialized OLAM with CFS-data 1-10 days previous to a flooding event (as initial conditions) to explore (1) short-term and high-resolution and (2) long-term and coarse-resolution simulations of flood and drought events, respectively. While floods are assessed during a maximum of 15-days refined-mesh simulations, drought is evaluated during the following 15 months. Simulated precipitation will be compared with the Sub-continental Observation Dataset, a gridded 1/16th degree resolution data obtained from climatological stations in Canada, US, and

  19. Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone

    2014-08-01

    One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction.

  20. Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wildfires are a natural and important element in the functioning of boreal forests. However, in some years, fires with extreme spread and severity occur. Such severe fires can degrade the forest, affect human values, emit huge amounts of carbon and aerosols and alter the land surface albedo. Usually, wind, slope and dry air conditions have been recognized as factors determining fire spread. Here we identify surface moisture as an additional important driving factor for the evolution of extreme fire events in the Baikal region. An area of 127 000 km2 burned in this region in 2003, a large part of it in regions underlain by permafrost. Analyses of satellite data for 2002–2009 indicate that previous-summer surface moisture is a better predictor for burned area than precipitation anomalies or fire weather indices for larch forests with continuous permafrost. Our analysis advances the understanding of complex interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil, and how coupled mechanisms can lead to extreme events. These findings emphasize the importance of a mechanistic coupling of soil thermodynamics, hydrology, vegetation functioning, and fire activity in Earth system models for projecting climate change impacts over the next century. (letter)

  1. No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka H Malinowska

    Full Text Available Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i trends in distribution patterns, (ii the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity, or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat. Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

  2. A systemic approach for managing extreme risk events-dynamic financial analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ph.D.Student Rodica Ianole; Ph. D. Student Ioana - Julieta Josan; Ph.D.Marian Zulean

    2011-01-01

    Following the Black Swan logic, it often happens that what we do not know becomes more relevant that what we (believe to) know. The management of extreme risks falls under this paradigm in the sense that it cannot be limited to a static approach based only on objective and easily quantifiable variables. Making appeal to the operational tools developed primarily for the insurance industry, the present paper aims to investigate how dynamic financial analysis (DFA) can be used within the framewo...

  3. The Role of Insurance in Managing Extreme Events: Implications for Terrorism Coverage

    OpenAIRE

    Howard Kunreuther

    2001-01-01

    A key question being raised since September 11 th is the appropriate role of the private and public sectors in reducing losses and offering insurance protection against extreme risks such as natural disasters, technological accidents and terrorist activities. The following scenario illustrates the challenges and opportunities facing the insurance and reinsurance industry in this regard: Scenario: Over the past 10 years the AllRisk (AR) Insurance Company has provided $500 million in coverage t...

  4. A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model for extreme precipitation events

    KAUST Repository

    Ghosh, Souparno

    2011-03-01

    We propose a new approach to model a sequence of spatially distributed time series of extreme values. Unlike common practice, we incorporate spatial dependence directly in the likelihood and allow the temporal component to be captured at the second level of hierarchy. Inferences about the parameters and spatio-temporal predictions are obtained via MCMC technique. The model is fitted to a gridded precipitation data set collected over 99 years across the continental U.S. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  5. Genetic Programming for the Downscaling of Extreme Rainfall Events on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Hadi Pour

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A genetic programming (GP-based logistic regression method is proposed in the present study for the downscaling of extreme rainfall indices on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, which is considered one of the zones in Malaysia most vulnerable to climate change. A National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis dataset at 42 grid points surrounding the study area was used to select the predictors. GP models were developed for the downscaling of three extreme rainfall indices: days with larger than or equal to the 90th percentile of rainfall during the north-east monsoon; consecutive wet days; and consecutive dry days in a year. Daily rainfall data for the time periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2000 were used for the calibration and validation of models, respectively. The results are compared with those obtained using the multilayer perceptron neural network (ANN and linear regression-based statistical downscaling model (SDSM. It was found that models derived using GP can predict both annual and seasonal extreme rainfall indices more accurately compared to ANN and SDSM.

  6. Extreme solar event of AD775: Potential radiation exposure to crews in deep space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, L. W.; Porter, J. A.; deWet, W. C.; Smith, W. J.; McGirl, N. A.; Heilbronn, L. H.; Moussa, H. M.

    2016-06-01

    The existence of a historically large cosmic event in AD774 or 775, of probable solar origin, has recently been confirmed from records of 14C levels in tree rings located at widely separated locations on Earth, 10Be records in polar ice cores, and historical records of aurora sightings. Usoskin et al. (2013) [16] suggest that such an event, of solar origin, would have a proton fluence of ~4.5×1010 cm-2 at energies above 30 MeV, with a hard energy spectrum comparable to the event of 23 February 1956. In this work we investigate the possible radiation exposures to crews of missions on the surface of Mars, from such an event. In this work we use the HZETRN radiation transport code, originally developed at NASA Langley Research Center, and the Computerized Anatomical Male and Female human geometry models to estimate exposures for a variety of aluminum shield areal densities similar to those provided by a spacesuit, surface lander, and permanent habitat on the Martian surface. Comparisons of the predicted organ exposures with recently-recommended radiation exposure limits are made. Potential health effects on crews, of such an event, are also discussed.

  7. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crystal Romeo Upperman

    Full Text Available Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989 that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate, including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events; responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.

  8. Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

    2016-08-01

    Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

  9. Tracking the Moisture Sources of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Shandong, China in July 2007:A Computational Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张弛; 李琦

    2014-01-01

    This paper utilizes a modified Water Accounting Model (WAM) to track the moisture sources of an extreme precipitation event in Shandong during 18-20 July 2007. It is found that different methods in dealing with the residual of the water budget always produce different results in moisture recycling calculations. In addition, results from the backward tracking without the residual are in complete agreement with those from the forward tracking with the residual, and vice versa, implying a mathematical consistency. We thus analyze and derive the conditions under which the two tracking approaches equate with each other. We applied the backward tracking to the Shandong extreme rainfall case and obtained quantitative estimates of moisture contributions of three selected regions away from the rainfall area. The results indicate that the spatial pattern rather than numerical value of the recycling moisture is more reliable in tracking the moisture sources. The moisture of this Shandong rainfall event comes mostly from the nearby upwind area in Southwest China, which is of the terrestrial origin; while the moisture originating from the neighboring West Pacific contributes little to this event.

  10. Estimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records

    CERN Document Server

    Schrijver, C J; Baltensperger, U; Cliver, E W; Guedel, M; Hudson, H S; McCracken, K G; Osten, R A; Peter, Th; Soderblom, D R; Usoskin, I G; Wolff, E W

    2012-01-01

    The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes, these proxies cannot presently be used to help determine the flare energy frequency distribution. Being thus limited to the use of direct flare observations, we evaluate the probabilities of large-energy solar explosions by combining solar flare observations with an ensemble of stellar flare observations. We conclude that solar flare energies form a relatively smooth distribution from small events to large flares, while...

  11. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak

  12. Characterization and effects of cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Coast and their relationship to extreme wave events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Ortiz-Royero

    2013-07-01

    passage of cold fronts during the last 16 yr were identified. Although the Colombian Caribbean has been affected by storms and hurricanes in the past, this research allows us to conclude that, there is a strong relationship between cold fronts and the largest waves in the Colombian Caribbean during the last 16 yr, which have caused damage to coastal infrastructure. We verified that the passage of a cold front corresponded to the most significant extreme wave event of the last two decades in the Colombian Caribbean, which caused the structural collapse of the Puerto Colombia pier, located near the city of Barranquilla, between 5 and 10 March 2009. This information is invaluable when evaluating average and extreme wave regimes for the purpose of informing the design of structures in this region of the Caribbean.

  13. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education. PMID:23619577

  14. Effects of extreme weather events and legume presence on mycorrhization of Plantago lanceolata and Holcus lanatus in the field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, J; Kreyling, J; Singh, B K; Jentsch, A

    2016-03-01

    Little is known about direct and indirect effects of extreme weather events on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) under field conditions. In a field experiment, we investigated the response of mycorrhization to drought and heavy rain in grassland communities. We quantified AMF biomass in soil, mycorrhization of roots of the grass Holcus lanatus and the forb Plantago lanceolata, as well as plant performance. Plants were grown in four-species communities with or without a legume. We hypothesised that drought increases and heavy rain decreases mycorrhization, and that higher mycorrhization will be linked to improved stress resistance and higher biomass production. Soil AMF biomass increased under both weather extremes. Heavy rain generally benefitted plants and increased arbuscules in P. lanceolata. Drought neither reduced plant performance nor root mycorrhization. Arbuscules increased in H. lanatus several weeks after drought, and in P. lanceolata several weeks after heavy rain spells. These long-lasting effects of weather events on mycorrhization highlight the indirect influence of climate on AMF via their host plant. Legume presence increased plant community biomass, but had only minor effects on mycorrhization. Arbuscule colonisation was negatively correlated with senescence during the dry summer. Mycorrhization and biomass production in P. lanceolata were positively related. However, increased mycorrhization was related to less biomass in the grass. AMF mycelium in soil might generally increase under extreme events, root colonisation, however, is host species specific. This might amplify community shifts in grassland under climate change by further increasing stress resistance of species that already benefit from changed precipitation. PMID:26284575

  15. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  16. Probing collective effects in hadronisation with the extremes of the underlying event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, T.; Farrington, S. [University of Warwick, Department of Physics, Coventry (United Kingdom); Skands, P. [Monash University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Clayton, VIC (Australia)

    2016-05-15

    We define a new set of observables to probe the structure of the underlying event in hadron collisions. We use the conventional definition of the ''transverse region'' in jet events and, for a fixed window in jet p {sub perpendicular} {sub to}, propose to measure several discriminating quantities as a function of the level of activity in the transverse region. The measurement of these observables in LHC data would reveal whether, e.g., the properties of ''low-UE'' events are compatible with equivalent measurements in e{sup +}e{sup -} collisions (jet universality), and whether the scaling behaviour towards ''high-UE'' events exhibits properties of non-trivial soft-QCD dynamics, such as colour reconnections or other collective phenomena. We illustrate at √(s) = 13 TeV that significant discriminatory power is obtained in comparisons between MC models with varying treatments of collective effects, including Pythia 8, epos, and Dipsy. (orig.)

  17. An analysis of extreme intraseasonal rainfall events during January-March 2010 over eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Suxiang; Huang, Qian

    2016-09-01

    The precipitation over eastern China during January-March 2010 exhibited a marked intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and a dominant period of 10-60 days. There were two active intraseasonal rainfall periods. The physical mechanisms responsible for the onset of the two rainfall events were investigated using ERA-interim data. In the first ISO event, anomalous ascending motion was triggered by vertically integrated (1000-300 hPa) warm temperature advection. In addition to southerly anomalies on the intraseasonal (10-60-day) timescale, synoptic-scale southeasterly winds helped advect warm air from the South China Sea and western Pacific into the rainfall region. In the second ISO event, anomalous convection was triggered by a convectively unstable stratification, which was caused primarily by anomalous moisture advection in the lower troposphere (1000-850 hPa) from the Bay of Bengal and the Indo-China Peninsula. Both the intraseasonal and the synoptic winds contributed to the anomalous moisture advection. Therefore, the winter intraseasonal rainfall events over East Asia in winter could be affected not only by intraseasonal activities but also by higher frequency disturbances.

  18. Extreme meteorological events and nuclear facilities safety; Fenomenos meteorologicos extremos e a seguranca das instalacoes nucleares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Patricia Moco Princisval

    2006-07-01

    An External Event is an event that originates outside the site and whose effects on the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) should be considered. Such events could be of natural or human induced origin and should be identified and selected for design purposes during the site evaluation process. This work shows that the subtropics and mid latitudes of South America east of the Andes Mountain Range have been recognized as prone to severe convective weather. In Brazil, the events of tornadoes are becoming frequent; however there is no institutionalized procedure for a systematic documentation of severe weather. The information is done only for some scientists and by the newspapers. Like strong wind can affect the structural integrity of buildings or the pressure differential can affect the ventilation system, our concern is the safety of NPP and for this purpose the recommendations of International Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear are showed and also a data base of tornadoes in Brazil is done. (author)

  19. Extreme violation of sleep hygiene: sleeping against the biological clock during a multiday relay event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. van Maanen; B. Roest; M. Moen; F. Oort; P. Vergouwen; I Paul; P. Groenenboom; M. Smits

    2015-01-01

    Background: Sleep hygiene is important for sleep quality and optimal performance during the day. However, it is not always possible to follow sleep hygiene requirements. In multiday relay events, athletes have to sleep immediately after physical exertion and sometimes against their biological clock.

  20. Fast-track extreme event attribution: How fast can we disentangle thermodynamic (forced) and dynamic (internal) contributions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Within the last decade, extreme weather event attribution has emerged as a new field of science and garnered increasing attention from the wider scientific community and the public. Numerous methods have been put forward to determine the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to individual extreme weather events. So far nearly all such analyses were done months after an event has happened. First, we present our newly established method which can assess the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) of a severe weather event due to an external driver in real-time. The method builds on a large ensemble of atmosphere-only GCM/RCM simulations forced by seasonal forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Taking the UK 2013/14 winter floods as an example, we demonstrate that the change in risk for heavy rainfall during the England floods due to anthropogenic climate change is of similar magnitude using either observed or seasonal forecast SSTs. While FAR is assumed to be independent from event-specific dynamic contributions due to anomalous circulation patterns as a first approximation, the risk of an event to occur under current conditions is clearly a function of the state of the atmosphere. The shorter the event, the more it is a result of chaotic internal weather variability. Hence we are interested to (1) attribute the event to thermodynamic and dynamic causes and to (2) establish a sensible time-scale for which we can make a useful and potentially robust attribution statement with regard to event-specific dynamics. Having tested the dynamic response of our model to SST conditions in January 2014, we find that observed SSTs are required to establish a discernible link between anomalous ocean temperatures and the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in general and the UK in particular. However, for extreme events occurring under strongly anomalous SST patterns, associated with known low-frequency climate modes such as El Nino or La Nina, forecast SSTs can

  1. Modelling Tradeoffs Evolution in Multipurpose Water Systems Operation in Response to Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, E.; Gazzotti, P.; Amigoni, F.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2015-12-01

    Multipurpose water resource systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of the operating objectives, which - under steady state climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions - is supposed to ensure a fair and/or efficient balance among the conflicting interests. Extreme variability in the system's drivers might affect operators' risk aversion and force a change in the tradeoff. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of operators' behavior and the associated system's performance. In this study, we explore how the selection of different optimal tradeoffs among the operating objectives is linked to the variations of the boundary conditions, such as, for example, drifting rainfall season or remarkable changes in crop and energy prices. We argue that tradeoff selection is driven by recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming on one of the operating objective target value should push the tradeoff toward the disadvantaged objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operators' tradeoff selection process. We map the selection onto a multi lateral negotiation process, where different multiple, virtual agents optimize different operating objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise on the operating policy. The agent's rigidity in each negotiation round is determined by the recent system performances according to the specific objective it represents. The negotiation follows a set-based egocentric monotonic concession protocol: at each negotiation step an agent incrementally adds some options to the set of its acceptable compromises and (possibly) accepts lower and lower satisfying policies until an agreement is achieved. We apply this reiterated negotiation framework on the regulated Lake Como, Italy, simulating the lake dam operation and its recurrent updates over the last 50 years. The operation aims to balance shoreline flood prevention and irrigation

  2. To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren

    2008-01-01

    In urban drainage modeling long term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties concerning long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer...... volumes. Traditionally it is rarely to dispose of long term rainfall time series from a local catchment rain gauge. In the present case study this is actually the case. 2 rainfall gauges have recorded events for approximately 9 years at 2 locations within the catchment. Beside these 2 gauges another 7...

  3. To what extent does variability of historical rainfall series influence extreme event statistics of sewer system surcharge and overflows?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren

    2009-01-01

    In urban drainage modelling long term extreme statistics has become an important basis for decision-making e.g. in connection with renovation projects. Therefore it is of great importance to minimize the uncertainties concerning long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer...... volumes. Traditionally it is rarely to dispose of long term rainfall time series from a local catchment rain gauge. In the present case study this is actually the case. 2 rainfall gauges have recorded events for approximately 9 years at 2 locations within the catchment. Beside these 2 gauges another 7...

  4. Extreme events, intrinsic landforms and humankind: Post-tsunami scenario along Nagore–Velankanni coast, Tamil Nadu, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    complexes act as physical barriers and protect the hinterland from the forces of the ocean, including wave run - up due to extreme events. Wide beaches and high dunes act as efficient dissipators of wave energy. Sand dunes serve as a store that waves... are demolished. c , Pr u dent restoration of a damaged coast: sand dunes are recreated, forests are extended, ro ads are redesigned, buildings are r e- located inland, port is shifted upstream, sea walls are avoided, adequate buffer zones are designated. a...

  5. Hybrid approach in statistical bias correction of projected precipitation for the frequency analysis of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Um, Myoung-Jin; Kim, Hanbeen; Heo, Jun-Haeng

    2016-08-01

    A general circulation model (GCM) can be applied to project future climate factors, such as precipitation and atmospheric temperature, to study hydrological and environmental climate change. Although many improvements in GCMs have been proposed recently, projected climate data are still required to be corrected for the biases in generating data before applying the model to practical applications. In this study, a new hybrid process was proposed, and its ability to perform bias correction for the prediction of annual precipitation and annual daily maxima, was tested. The hybrid process in this study was based on quantile mapping with the gamma and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and a spline technique to correct the bias of projected daily precipitation. The observed and projected daily precipitation values from the selected stations were analyzed using three bias correction methods, namely, linear scaling, quantile mapping, and hybrid methods. The performances of these methods were analyzed to find the optimal method for prediction of annual precipitation and annual daily maxima. The linear scaling method yielded the best results for estimating the annual average precipitation, while the hybrid method was optimal for predicting the variation in annual precipitation. The hybrid method described the statistical characteristics of the annual maximum series (AMS) similarly to the observed data. In addition, this method demonstrated the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) and the highest coefficient of determination (R2) for predicting the quantiles of the AMS for the extreme value analysis of precipitation.

  6. Extreme ball lightning event of August 6, 1868 in County Donegal, Ireland.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    VanDevender, J. Pace; McGinley, Niall (Ardaturr, Donegal, Ireland); van Doorn, Peter (Tornado and Storm Research Organization, TORRO, Thelwall, Warrington, UK); Wilson, Peter (University of Ulster, Northern Ireland, UK); VanDevender, Aaron P. (National Institute of Standards and Technology, Boulder, CO)

    2008-04-01

    Although laboratory experiments have produced glowing balls of light that fade in <1 s after external power is removed and theories have been proposed to explain low-energy events, energetic ball lightning is not understood. A seminal event that illuminates the fundamental nature of ball lightning is needed to advance our understanding of the phenomenon. We report such a seminal event: the energetic ball lightning event of August 6, 1868, in County Donegal, Ireland, extensively reported to the Royal Society by M. Fitzgerald. It lasted for 20 minutes, left a 6 m square hole and a 100 m long by 1.2 m deep trench, tore away a 25 m long and 1.5 m deep stream bank that diverted the course of the stream, and terminated by producing a shallow cave in the opposite bank of the stream. We found and characterized the site and show that the geomorphology and carbon dating support the account by M. Fitzgerald. We find that the excavation is not consistent with chemical, nuclear, or electrostatic forces but is consistent with Analysis of the event and the local conditions in 2006 is consistent with magnetic induction at {approx} 1 MHz frequency expelling the moderately conductive, water saturated peat down to the underlying clay/rock layer. The 60-cm diameter--which diminished to 10 cm diameter without reducing the impact of the ball lightning on the environment--and the size of the depressions, the yield strength of the peat, and the lack of any mention of smoke or steam in Fitzgerald's report would be consistent with the core of the ball lightning being a magnetically levitated mini black hole weighing more than 20,000 kg. The results suggest that such energetic ball lightning should be detectable at great distances by its electromagnetic emissions, which might provide a characteristic signature to reveal the source of the energy and the equilibrium configuration of the contained currents. Unexplained intermittent emissions in the MHz range are necessary but not

  7. Sensitivity of the WRF model to the lower boundary in an extreme precipitation event – Madeira Island case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Teixeira

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Through the years, the advances in satellite technology made feasible the acquisition of information about the Earth surface, such as elevation and land use with great detail and resolution. This information can be included in numerical atmospheric models, updating them and providing a more detailed lower boundary, which in turn can improve the results of events forced by it. Given this, this work aims to study the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecast model to three different topography datasets as well as two different land use datasets in an extreme precipitation event. A test case study in which topography driven precipitation was dominant over Madeira Island was considered which triggered several flash floods and mudslides in the southern parts of the island. Model results show higher model skill in precipitation over Madeira leeward and in the windward wind flow, in spite of the non significant enhancement on the overall results with higher resolution datasets of topography and land use.

  8. Adaptive Capacity of Households, Community Organizations and Institutions for Extreme Climate Events in the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    Linda M Penalba; Elazegui, Dulce D.

    2011-01-01

    Tropical cyclone is the most commonly occurring natural hazard in the Philippines causing billions of pesos worth in socio-economic losses and other forms of damages. Analysis of 59-year data on Philippine typhoons revealed that their intensity had been increasing, especially since the 1990s. It is therefore important for people, communities, and institutions to enhance their capacity to adapt to typhoon events and improve resilience to their probable risks. This research work focused on loca...

  9. Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be

  10. Secondary stressors and extreme events and disasters: a systematic review of primary research from 2010-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Sarah; Rubin, G James; Murray, Virginia; Rogers, M Brooke; Amlôt, Richard; Williams, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Extreme events and disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, cause distress and are associated with some people developing mental disorders. Primary stressors inherent in many disasters can include injuries sustained or watching someone die. The literature recognises the distress which primary stressors cause and their association with mental disorders. Secondary stressors such as a lack of financial assistance, the gruelling process of submitting an insurance claim, parents' worries about their children, and continued lack of infrastructure can manifest their effects shortly after a disaster and persist for extended periods of time. Secondary stressors, and their roles in affecting people's longer-term mental health, should not be overlooked. We draw attention in this review to the nature of secondary stressors that are commonly identified in the literature, assess how they are measured, and develop a typology of these stressors that often affect people after extreme events. Methods We searched for relevant papers from 2010 and 2011 using MEDLINE®, Embase and PsycINFO®. We selected primary research papers that evaluated the associations between secondary stressors and distress or mental disorders following extreme events, and were published in English. We extracted information on which secondary stressors were assessed, and used thematic analysis to group the secondary stressors into a typology. Results Thirty-two relevant articles published in 2010 and 2011 were identified. Many secondary stressors were poorly defined and difficult to differentiate from primary stressors or other life events. We identified 11 categories of secondary stressors, though some extend over more than one category. The categories include: economic stressors such as problems with compensation, recovery of and rebuilding homes; loss of physical possessions and resources; health-related stressors; stress relating to education and schooling; stress arising from media

  11. Hydro-Meteocean Nature of some Extreme Flood Events and Some Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, J. Javier

    2013-04-01

    The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the paper analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market". The event, as frequently, was due to a meteorological phenomenon known as "gota fría" (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish east to southeast inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn season there, and, as it happens, in other places around the world (East/Southeast Africa). Their occurrence, however shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes, on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons do). As a matter of fact, all of these equivalent though different phenomena may have different magnitude each time. This paper describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold drop phenomenon as a whole, on the generation of its rains and on the different natures and consequences of its flood. This paper explains also the ways in which the maritime weather in front of the basin and the consequent sea level govern floods on the lowest zone of any hydrographical basin, showing that event as a real

  12. Non-linear time series extreme events and integer value problems

    CERN Document Server

    Turkman, Kamil Feridun; Zea Bermudez, Patrícia

    2014-01-01

    This book offers a useful combination of probabilistic and statistical tools for analyzing nonlinear time series. Key features of the book include a study of the extremal behavior of nonlinear time series and a comprehensive list of nonlinear models that address different aspects of nonlinearity. Several inferential methods, including quasi likelihood methods, sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods and particle filters, are also included so as to provide an overall view of the available tools for parameter estimation for nonlinear models. A chapter on integer time series models based on several thinning operations, which brings together all recent advances made in this area, is also included. Readers should have attended a prior course on linear time series, and a good grasp of simulation-based inferential methods is recommended. This book offers a valuable resource for second-year graduate students and researchers in statistics and other scientific areas who need a basic understanding of nonlinear time ...

  13. Missing data imputation of climate datasets: implications to modeling extreme drought events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia Tatiana Ferrari

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Time series from weather stations in Brazil have several missing data, outliers and spurious zeroes. In order to use this dataset in risk and meteorological studies, one should take into account alternative methodologies to deal with these problems. This article describes the statistical imputation and quality control procedures applied to a database of daily precipitation from meteorological stations located in the State of Parana, Brazil. After imputation, the data went through a process of quality control to identify possible errors, such as: identical precipitation over seven consecutive days and precipitation values that differ significantly from the values in neighboring weather stations. Next, we used the extreme value theory to model agricultural drought, considering the maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation below 7 mm for the period between January and February, in the main soybean agricultural regions in the State of Parana.

  14. Initiation, maintenance, and properties of convection in an extreme rainfall event during SCMREX: Observational analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Luo, Yali; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao

    2014-12-01

    A long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS) with extreme rainfall over the western coastal region of Guangdong on 10 May 2013 during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) is studied. The environmental conditions are characterized by little convective inhibition, low-lifting condensation level, moderate convective available potential energy and precipitable water, and lack of low-level jets from the tropical ocean. Repeated convective back building and subsequent northeastward "echo training" of convective cells are found during the MCS's development stages. However, the initiation/maintenance factors and organization of convection differ significantly during the earlier and later stages. From midnight to early morning, convection is continuously initiated as southeasterly flows near the surface impinge on the east side of mesoscale mountains near the coastal lines and then moves northeastward, leading to formation of two quasi-stationary rainbands. From early morning to early afternoon, new convection is repeatedly triggered along a mesoscale boundary between precipitation-induced cold outflows and warm air from South China Sea and Gulf of Tokin, resulting in the formation of "band training" of several parallel rainbands that move eastward in a later time, i.e., two scales of "training" of convective elements are found. As the MCS dissipates, a stronger squall line moves into the region from the west and passes over within about 3.5 h, contributing about 10%-15% to the total rainfall amount. It is concluded that terrain, near-surface winds, warm advection from the upstream ocean in the boundary layer, and precipitation-generated cold outflows play important roles in initiating and maintaining the extreme rain-producing MCS.

  15. Improved understanding of an extreme rainfall event at the Himalayan foothills – a case study using COSMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhakar Shrestha

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, an increased occurrence of loss and damage of property and human casualties over the southern rim area of the Himalayas, caused by landslides following intense rainfall events, has been reported. An analysis of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-gridded rainfall data shows that events with an exceedance probability of 1.6% for 200 mm/d rainfall are common over this region during the monsoon season. An improved understanding of the mechanisms, which lead to such events, is important for their prediction and to estimate the impact of climate change on their recurrence. In this study, we analyse such an extreme precipitation event, which hit the Uttarakhand region of the central Himalayas on 13 September 2012. We use the operational regional weather forecast model COSMO at a convection-permitting resolution of 2.8 km to simulate this event. The spatial pattern of daily-accumulated precipitation and atmospheric state profiles simulated by the model compared well with the TRMM-gridded data and radiosonde observations, which adds confidence to our model results. Our analysis suggests a three-step mechanism leading to this event: (1 development of an easterly low-level wind along the Gangetic Plain caused by a low pressure system over the central Gangetic Plain; (2 convergence of moisture over the north-western part of India, leading to an increase of potential instability of the air mass along the valley recesses, which is capped by an inversion located above the ridgeline; and (3 strengthening of the north-westerly flow above the ridges, which supports the lifting of the potentially unstable air over the protruding ridge of the foothills of the Himalayas and triggers shallow convection, which on passing through adjacent folds initiates deep convection.

  16. Household and Community Assets and Farmers’ Adaptation to Extreme Weather Event:the Case of Drought in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yang-jie; HUANG Ji-kun; WANG Jin-xia

    2014-01-01

    Under climate change, rising frequency and serious extreme weather events have challenged agricultural production. Designing appropriate adaptation measures to the extreme weather events require rigorous and empirical analysis. The overall goals of this study are to understand physical adaptation measures taken by farmers and the impacts of household and community assets on farmers’ adaptation when they face drought. The analyses are based on a unique data set collected from a household survey in three provinces in China. The survey results show that though not common on annual basis, some farmers did use physical adaptation measures to ifght drought. Regression analysis reveals that both household and community assets significantly affect farmers’ adaptation behaviors. Improving households’ social capital and wealth, communities’ network and access to government’s anti-drought service can facilitate farmers’ adaptation to drought. Results indicate that community’s irrigation infrastructure and physical adaptation taken by farmers can substitute each other. Further analysis shows that the households taking adaptation measures have higher crop yields than those without taking these measures. The paper concludes with several policy implications.

  17. Using Discrete Event Simulation for Programming Model Exploration at Extreme-Scale: Macroscale Components for the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilke, Jeremiah J [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Kenny, Joseph P. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Discrete event simulation provides a powerful mechanism for designing and testing new extreme- scale programming models for high-performance computing. Rather than debug, run, and wait for results on an actual system, design can first iterate through a simulator. This is particularly useful when test beds cannot be used, i.e. to explore hardware or scales that do not yet exist or are inaccessible. Here we detail the macroscale components of the structural simulation toolkit (SST). Instead of depending on trace replay or state machines, the simulator is architected to execute real code on real software stacks. Our particular user-space threading framework allows massive scales to be simulated even on small clusters. The link between the discrete event core and the threading framework allows interesting performance metrics like call graphs to be collected from a simulated run. Performance analysis via simulation can thus become an important phase in extreme-scale programming model and runtime system design via the SST macroscale components.

  18. The characteristics of clusters of weather and extreme climate events in China during the past 50 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The pick-up algorithm by the k-th order cluster for the closest distance is used in the fields of weather and climactic events, and the technical terms clustered index and high clustered region are defined to investigate their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in China during the past 50 years. The results show that the contribution of extreme high-temperature event clusters changed in the period from the 1960s to the 1970s, and its strength was enhanced. On the other hand, the decreasing trend in the clusters of low-temperature extremes can be taken as a signal for warmer winters to follow in the decadal time scale. Torrential rain and heavy rainfall clusters have both been lessened in the past 50 years, and have different cluster characteristics because of their definitions. Regions with high clustered indexes are concentrated in southern China. The spatial evolution of the heavy rainfall clusters reveals that clustered heavy rainfall has played an important role in the rain-belt pattern over China during the last 50 years. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  19. The characteristics of clusters of weather and extreme climate events in China during the past 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Ping; Hou Wei; Feng Guo-Lin

    2012-01-01

    The pick-up algorithm by the k-th order cluster for the closest distance is used in the fields of weather and climactic events,and the technical terms clustered index and high clustered region are defined to investigate their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in China during the past 50 years.The results show that the contribution of extreme high-temperature event clusters changed in the period from the 1960s to the 1970s,and its strength was enhanced.On the other hand,the decreasing trend in the clusters of low-temperature extremes can be taken as a signal for warmer winters to follow in the decadal time scale.Torrential rain and heavy rainfall clusters have both been lessened in the past 50 years,and have different cluster characteristics because of their definitions.Regions with high clustered indexes are concentrated in southern China.The spatial evolution of the heavy rainfall clusters reveals that clustered heavy rainfall has played an important role in the rain-belt pattern over China during the last 50 years.

  20. Spatial vulnerability under extreme events: a case of Asian dust storm's effects on children's respiratory health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Yang, Chiang-Hsing; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2013-04-01

    Asian dust storm (ADS) events have raised concerns regarding their adverse impact on human health. Whether ADS events can result in the heterogeneity of health impacts on children across space and time has not been studied. The goal of this study is to examine the spatial vulnerability impact of ADS events on children's respiratory health geographically and to analyze any patterns related to ADS episodes. From 1998 to 2007, data from both preschool children's and schoolchildren's daily respiratory clinic visits, gathered from patients located in 41 districts of Taipei City and New Taipei City, are analyzed in a Bayesian spatiotemporal model in order to investigate the interaction between spatial effects and ADS episodes. When adjusting for the temporal effect, air pollutants, and temperature, the spatial pattern explicitly varies during defined study periods: non-ADS periods, ADS periods, and post-ADS periods. Compared to non-ADS periods, the relative rate of children's respiratory clinic visits significantly reduced 0.74 to 0.99 times in most districts during ADS periods, while the relative rate rose from 1.01 to 1.11 times in more than half of districts during post-ADS periods, especially in schoolchildren. This spatial vulnerability denotes that the significantly increased relative rate of respiratory clinic visits during post-ADS periods is primarily located in highly urbanized areas for both children's populations. Hence, the results of this study suggest that schoolchildren are particularly more vulnerable to the health impacts of ADS exposure in terms of higher excessive risks over a larger spatial extent than preschool children, especially during post-ADS periods. PMID:23403144

  1. The role of water vapor and its associated latent heating in extreme Beaufort coastal storm surge events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyakum, J. R.; Small, D. L.; Atallah, E.; Liu, N.; Kuo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    During the rather limited ice-free season that typically may occur from late July through early October, the Beaufort Sea region is susceptible to extreme windstorms, many of which produce damaging storm surges to low-lying coastal communities. During the most recent years, the ice-free season has lengthened, suggesting an increased vulnerability of coastal communities to cyclogenesis-related windstorms. Therefore, our research focuses on the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms responsible for significant surface wind events during the ice-free season in this region. We demonstrate that these storm surge events are often associated with the generation of large-scale atmospheric circulation regomes conducive to North American droughts. Our analysis methodology includes the detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis, including numerical experiments, on a case of an especially long-lived extreme storm surge that occurred in September 1999. We utilize conventional surface and upper-air station data, along with satellite and ground-based water vapor data. We also utilize global and regional reanalysis data to document the synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments associated with the cyclogenesis events. Our numerical experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model include sensitivity testing with COSMIC-derived water vapor data, and sensitivity tests to illustrate the relative roles that latent heating plays in the storm surge event, at various stages in its lifecycle. A particularly important finding of our research on the devastating September 1999 storm surge event is that a relatively rare case of explosive cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Alaska is a key player in this Beaufort storm surge. The deep-tropospheric latent heating during the explosive cyclogenesis generates a dynamic tropopause ridge. This ridge in turn induces surface ridging that contributes to the strong west-northwesterlies associated with the storm surge. This generation of the dynamic

  2. Building hazard maps of extreme daily rainy events from PDF ensemble, via REA method, on Senegal River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Giraldo

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa, one of the poorest of the Earth, is characterized by high rainfall variability and rapid population growth. In this region, heavy storm events frequently cause extensive damage. Nonetheless, the projections for change in extreme rainfall values have shown a great divergence between Regional Climate Models (RCM, increasing the forecast uncertainty. Novel methodologies should be applied, taking into account both the variability provided by different RCMs, as well as the non-stationary nature of time series for the building of hazard maps of extreme rainfall events. The present work focuses in the probability density functions (PDFs-based evaluation and a simple quantitative measure of how well each RCM considered can capture the observed annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR series on the Senegal River basin. Since meaningful trends have been detected in historical rainfall time series for the region, non-stationary probabilistic models were used to fit the PDF parameters to the AMDR time series. In the development of PDF ensemble by bootstrapping techniques, Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA maps were applied to score the RCMs. The REA factors were computed using a metric to evaluate the agreement between observed -or best estimated- PDFs, and that simulated with each RCM. The assessment of plausible regional trends associated to the return period, from the hazard maps of AMDR, showed a general rise, owing to an increase in the mean and the variability of extreme precipitation. These spatial-temporal distributions could be considered by local stakeholders in such a way as to reach a better balance between mitigation and adaptation.

  3. Simulating extreme-mass-ratio systems in full general relativity: tidal disruption events

    Science.gov (United States)

    East, William; Pretorius, Frans

    2014-03-01

    Sparked by recent and anticipated observations, there is considerable interest in understanding events where a star is tidally disrupted by a massive black hole. Motivated by this and other applications, we introduce a new method for numerically evolving the full Einstein field equations in situations where the spacetime is dominated by a known background solution. The technique leverages the knowledge of the background solution to subtract off its contribution to the truncation error, thereby more efficiently achieving a desired level of accuracy. We demonstrate how the method can be applied to systems consisting of a solar-type star and a supermassive black hole with mass ratios >=106 . The self-gravity of the star is thus consistently modelled within the context of general relativity, and the star's interaction with the black hole computed with moderate computational cost, despite the over five orders of magnitude difference in gravitational potential (as defined by the ratio of mass to radius). We study the tidal deformation of the star during infall, as well as the gravitational wave emission, and discuss ongoing work to understand the importance of strong-field gravity effects on tidal disruption events.

  4. Disentangling event-scale hydrologic flow partitioning in mountains of the Korean Peninsula under extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, Christopher L.

    2016-07-01

    Mountainous headwaters include a variety of spatial landscape units; however, the flow contribution from different hydrologic components is complex and often unclear. In addition to complex landscape controls, temporal meteorological drivers play an important role in the distribution between surface runoff and subsurface storage changes. This spatiotemporal variability in partitioning can influence catchment-wide flow accumulation and nutrient and sediment loading. We use a multi-year, multi-method analysis of stable isotopes, geochemical indicators, and discharge distributed throughout the Haean catchment in South Korea to identify temporal variability in hydrologic flow partitioning from surface runoff, springs, shallow interflow, and groundwater under monsoonal conditions. By combining a weighted, multi-method discharge approach, high frequency, synoptic, catchment-wide isotopic and geochemical sampling, and baseflow analysis, we characterize watershed-scale spatiotemporal hydrologic flow partitioning. Meteorological drivers are spatially variable throughout the catchment and temporally between individual events. Baseflow contributions in the high elevation, forested areas are up to 50%, while the majority of the catchment is approximately 20%. Our study builds on previously reported seasonality of isotopic signatures by quantifying trends in distributed event-based partitioning of isotopic tracers. We demonstrate that high frequency flow partitioning can accurately be determined in mountainous topography with high precipitation and that there is a need for multiple method characterizations. Our results further show the benefit of spatially distributed synoptic sampling for process understanding of hydrologic partitioning throughout the watersheds.

  5. Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkoski, Jaroslaw

    2016-04-01

    increased flows, with strong seasonal changes. The results of the DHR analysis show that hydro-climatic extremes are characterized by oscillatory behavior at different time scales. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The climate, water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  6. Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess

  7. Extreme star formation events in quasar hosts over ${\\bf0.5<\\textit{z}<4}$

    CERN Document Server

    Pitchford, Lura K; Feltre, Anna; Farrah, Duncan; Clarke, Charlotte; Harris, Kathryn; Hurley, Peter; Oliver, Sebastian; Page, Mathew; Wang, Lingyu

    2016-01-01

    We explore the relationship between active galactic nuclei and star formation in a sample of 513 optically luminous type 1 quasars up to redshifts of $\\sim$4 hosting extremely high star formation rates (SFRs). The quasars are selected to be individually detected by the \\textit{Herschel} SPIRE instrument at $> $3$\\sigma$ at 250 $\\mu$m, leading to typical SFRs of order of 1000 M$_{\\odot}$yr$^{-1}$. We find the average SFRs to increase by almost a factor 10 from $z\\sim0.5$ to $z\\sim3$, mirroring the rise in the comoving SFR density over the same epoch. However, we find that the SFRs remain approximately constant with increasing accretion luminosity for accretion luminosities above 10$^{12}$ L$_{\\odot}$. We also find that the SFRs do not correlate with black hole mass. Both of these results are most plausibly explained by the existence of a self-regulation process by the starburst at high SFRs, which controls SFRs on time-scales comparable to or shorter than the AGN or starburst duty cycles. We additionally find ...

  8. Increased Extreme Hydrological Events and Decreased Water Supply Availability for the Southwestern United States Projected by Mid-Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagan, B. R.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Naz, B. S.; Kao, S. C.; Mei, R.; Kendall, D. R.; Pal, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Semi-arid Southern California relies primarily on imported water originating mostly from snowpack in basins outside of the region including the San-Joaquin River, Tulare Lake, Sacramento River, Owens Valley, Mono Lake, and Colorado River basins. This study provides an integrated ensemble approach to assessing climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and hydrologic extremes for all water supplies to Southern California. Output from 10 global climate models is used to force a regional climate model and hydrological model resulting in high-resolution 4.17-km output for the region. Greenhouse gas concentrations are prescribed according to historical values for the present-day (1965-2005) and the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the near to mid term future (2010-2050). On the annual timescale, temperature, precipitation and evaporation increase throughout the majority of the study area. With increased temperatures, precipitation is less likely to fall as snow, decreasing snowpack and natural storage and shifting peak flows to earlier in the year. Daily annual maximum runoff and precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in intensity and frequency by mid-century. The 50-year event, for example, becomes approximately five times more likely in the Colorado River basin and twice as likely in the other basins. In densely populated coastal Southern Californian cities, extreme flood events become three to five times as likely substantially increasing the risk of overburdening flood control systems and potential widespread flooding. The escalating likelihood of the combined effects of runoff occurring earlier in the year and in significantly higher amounts poses a substantial flood control risk requiring adaptation measures such as water release from reservoirs. Significant snowpack reductions and increased flood risk will likely necessitate additional multiyear storage solutions for urban and agricultural regions in the Southwestern US.

  9. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of cloud condensation nuclei, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can be formed and grow large enough to influence cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the southern and northern polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high during this extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles up to the size of CCN. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to provide evidence for the probable production of stratospheric CCN from cosmic ray induced ionization.

  10. Using coarse GPS data to quantify city-scale transportation system resilience to extreme events

    CERN Document Server

    Donovan, Brian

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a method to quantitatively measure the resilience of transportation systems using GPS data from taxis. The granularity of the GPS data necessary for this analysis is relatively coarse; it only requires coordinates for the beginning and end of trips, the metered distance, and the total travel time. The method works by computing the historical distribution of pace (normalized travel times) between various regions of a city and measuring the pace deviations during an unusual event. This method is applied to a dataset of nearly 700 million taxi trips in New York City, which is used to analyze the transportation infrastructure resilience to Hurricane Sandy. The analysis indicates that Hurricane Sandy impacted traffic conditions for more than five days, and caused a peak delay of two minutes per mile. Practically, it identifies that the evacuation caused only minor disruptions, but significant delays were encountered during the post-disaster reentry process. Since the implementation of this me...

  11. CHANGES IN FREQUENCY, PERSISTENCE AND INTENSITY OF EXTREME HIGH-TEMPERATURE EVENTS IN THE ROMANIAN PLAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DRAGOTĂ CARMEN-SOFIA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent summer heat waves (2003, 2010 had a strong socio-economic impact in different parts of the continent by means of crop shortfalls and forest fires. Sustained hot days became more frequent in the recent decades in many European regions, affecting human health and leading to additional deaths. This signal has been outlined in many studies conducted in Romania, suggesting that the southern region of Romania is particularly subject to large temperature increase. This work investigates the changing annual and seasonal heat waves at regional scale of the Romanian Plain, over period 1961-2014. Daily maximum temperature recorded at six weather stations available from the ECA&D project (European Climate Assessment and Datasets were analyzed. The changes in the seasonal frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves were studied using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test, as recommended by the scientific expert team on climate change detection. The likelyhood of higher maximum temperatures rise, particularly after the mid 1980s, and the changes in the upper tail of the probability density functions of these temperatures, within the extreme domain (beyond the 95% percentile level, explain the persistence and intensity of heat waves. The upward trends are dominant most of the year, and many of the calculated decadal slopes were found statistically significant (relative to the 5% level, proving an ongoing and strong warming all over the region. Our findings are in good agreement with several recent studies carried out at European and national scale and pledge for further scientific analyses i.e. heat stress impact on public health and agriculture.

  12. Extreme star formation events in quasar hosts over 0.5 < z < 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitchford, L. K.; Hatziminaoglou, E.; Feltre, A.; Farrah, D.; Clarke, C.; Harris, K. A.; Hurley, P.; Oliver, S.; Page, M.; Wang, L.

    2016-11-01

    We explore the relationship between active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star formation in a sample of 513 optically luminous type 1 quasars up to redshifts of ˜4 hosting extremely high star formation rates (SFRs). The quasars are selected to be individually detected by the Herschel SPIRE instrument at >3σ at 250 μm, leading to typical SFRs of order of 1000 M⊙ yr-1. We find the average SFRs to increase by almost a factor 10 from z ˜ 0.5 to z ˜ 3, mirroring the rise in the comoving SFR density over the same epoch. However, we find that the SFRs remain approximately constant with increasing accretion luminosity for accretion luminosities above 1012 L⊙. We also find that the SFRs do not correlate with black hole mass. Both of these results are most plausibly explained by the existence of a self-regulation process by the starburst at high SFRs, which controls SFRs on time-scales comparable to or shorter than the AGN or starburst duty cycles. We additionally find that SFRs do not depend on Eddington ratio at any redshift, consistent with no relation between SFR and black hole growth rate per unit black hole mass. Finally, we find that high-ionization broad absorption line (HiBAL) quasars have indistinguishable far-infrared properties to those of classical quasars, consistent with HiBAL quasars being normal quasars observed along a particular line of sight, with the outflows in HiBAL quasars not having any measurable effect on the star formation in their hosts.

  13. The recent extreme hydrological events in the Western Amazon Basin: The role of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza, J.; Ronchail, J.; Guyot, J.; Santini, W.; Lavado, W.; Ore-Hybam Observatory

    2013-05-01

    The Peruvian Amazonas River, the main western tributary of the Amazon basin, has a huge drainage (750 000 km2, 50% of which lies in the Andes) and a mean discharge estimated in 32 000 m3/s, which correspond to 15% of the Amazon discharge at the estuary. Recently, in a context of significant discharge diminution during the low-water season (1970-2012), severe hydrological events, as intense droughts and floods, have been reported in the Peruvian Amazonas River. As they have not been always observed in other regions of the Amazon basin and because they have strong impacts on vulnerable riverside residents, we shall focus on the origin and the predictability of the western Amazon extremes, providing a review of the main findings about the climate features during recent extreme hydrological events in western Amazon. While the lowest discharge value was observed in September 2010 (8 300 m3/s) at the hydrological Tamshiyacu station (near to Iquitos city), a rapid transition toward a high discharge was noticed in April 2011 (45 000 m3/s). Finally, in April 2012, during the on going high waters period, the Amazonas River is experimenting its historical highest discharge (55 000 m3/s). Our work is based on several datasets including in-situ discharge and rainfall information from ORE-HYBAM observatory. Extreme droughts (1995, 2005 and 2010) are generally associated with positive SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and weak trade winds and water vapor transport toward the western Amazon, which, in association with increased subsidence over central and southern Amazon, explain the lack of rainfall and very low discharge values. But, in 1998, toward the end of the 1997-98 El Niño event, the drought has been more likely related to an anomalous divergence of water vapor in the western Amazon that is characteristic of a warm event in the Pacific. The years with a rapid transition form low waters to very high floods (e.g. September 2010 to April 2011) are characterized

  14. Relationship Between HIMAWARI-8-DERIVED Overshooting Tops and Extreme Weather Events in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, H. M.; Kim, M. A.; Im, J.

    2016-06-01

    Severe weathers such as heavy rainfall, floods, strong wind, and lightning are closely related with the strong convection activities of atmosphere. Overshooting tops sometimes occur by deep convection above tropopause, penetrating into the lower stratosphere. Due to its high potential energy, the detection of OT is crucial to understand the climatic phenomena. Satellite images are useful to detect the dynamics of atmospheric conditions using cloud observation. This study used machine learning methods for extracting OTs. The reference cases were built using CloudSat, CALIPSO, and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data with Himawari-8 imagery. As reference cases, 11 OT events were detected. The aim of this study is the investigation of relationship between OTs cases and the occurrences of heavy rainfall. For investigation of OT effects, TRMM daily rain rate data (mm/hr) were collected and averaged at 25 km intervals until 250km from the center of OT cases. As the result, precipitation rate clearly coincides with the distance from the center of OT occurrence.

  15. Micro-halocline enabled nutrient recycling may explain extreme Azolla event in the Eocene Arctic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Kempen, Monique M L; Smolders, Alfons J P; Lamers, Leon P M; Roelofs, Jan G M

    2012-01-01

    In order to understand the physicochemical mechanisms that could explain the massive growth of Azolla arctica in the Eocene Arctic Ocean, we carried out a laboratory experiment in which we studied the interacting effects of rain and wind on the development of salinity stratification, both in the presence and in the absence of a dense Azolla cover. Additionally, we carried out a mesocosm experiment to get a better understanding of the nutrient cycling within and beneath a dense Azolla cover in both freshwater and brackish water environments. Here we show that Azolla is able to create a windproof, small-scale salinity gradient in brackish waters, which allows for efficient recycling of nutrients. We suggest that this mechanism ensures the maintenance of a large standing biomass in which additional input of nutrients ultimately result in a further expansion of an Azolla cover. As such, it may not only explain the extent of the Azolla event during the Eocene, but also the absence of intact vegetative Azolla remains and the relatively low burial efficiency of organic carbon during this interval. PMID:23166833

  16. Micro-halocline enabled nutrient recycling may explain extreme Azolla event in the Eocene Arctic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique M L van Kempen

    Full Text Available In order to understand the physicochemical mechanisms that could explain the massive growth of Azolla arctica in the Eocene Arctic Ocean, we carried out a laboratory experiment in which we studied the interacting effects of rain and wind on the development of salinity stratification, both in the presence and in the absence of a dense Azolla cover. Additionally, we carried out a mesocosm experiment to get a better understanding of the nutrient cycling within and beneath a dense Azolla cover in both freshwater and brackish water environments. Here we show that Azolla is able to create a windproof, small-scale salinity gradient in brackish waters, which allows for efficient recycling of nutrients. We suggest that this mechanism ensures the maintenance of a large standing biomass in which additional input of nutrients ultimately result in a further expansion of an Azolla cover. As such, it may not only explain the extent of the Azolla event during the Eocene, but also the absence of intact vegetative Azolla remains and the relatively low burial efficiency of organic carbon during this interval.

  17. Smoke aerosol and its radiative effects during extreme fire event over Central Russia in summer 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Chubarova

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Different microphysical, optical and radiative properties of aerosol were analyzed during the severe fires in summer 2010 over Central Russia using ground measurements at two AERONET sites in Moscow (Meteorological Observatory of Moscow State University – MSU MO and Zvenigorod (Moscow Region and radiative measurements at the MSU MO. Volume aerosol size distribution in smoke conditions had a bimodal character with the significant prevalence of fine mode particles, for which effective radius was shifted to higher values (reff-fine = 0.24 μm against approximately 0.15 μm in typical conditions. For smoke aerosol, the imaginary part of refractive index (REFI in the visible spectral region was lower than that for typical aerosol (REFIλ =675 nm = 0.006 against REFIλ =675 nm = 0.01, while single scattering albedo (SSA was significantly higher (SSAλ =675 nm = 0.95 against SSAλ =675 nm ~ 0.9. Extremely high aerosol optical thickness at 500 nm (AOT500 was observed on 6–8 August reaching the absolute maximum on 7 August in Moscow (AOT500 = 6.4 and at Zvenigorod (AOT500 = 5.9. A dramatic attenuation of solar irradiance at ground was also recorded. Maximum irradiance loss had reached 64% for global shortwave irradiance, 91% for UV radiation 300–380 nm, and 97% for erythemally-weighted UV irradiance at relatively high solar elevation 47°. Significant spectral dependence in attenuation of solar irradiance in smoky conditions was mainly explained by higher AOT and smaller SSA in UV (0.8–0.9 compared with SSA in the visible region of spectrum. The assessments of radiative forcing effect (RFE at the TOA indicated a significant cooling of the smoky atmosphere. Instant RFE reached −167 Wm−2 at AOT500 = 6.4, climatological RFE calculated with August 2010 monthly mean AOT was about −65 Wm−2, compared with −20 Wm−2 for typical aerosol according to

  18. Insurance as an adaptation strategy for extreme weather events indeveloping countries and economies in transition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Evan

    2004-06-30

    The insurance industry can play a material role indecreasing the vulnerability of developing countries and economies intransition to weather-related natural disasters while simultaneouslysupporting both its own market-based objectives and the objectives ofsustainable development. Although insurance is not a "silver bullet" forthe problems posed by natural disasters in emerging markets,public-private partnerships can enhance insurance's ability to spread therisks and manage the costs of weather-related disasters as well as toincrease the pool of people who have access to coverage. (For simplicityin this report, the phrase "emerging markets" is intended to encompassdeveloping countries and economies in transition.) Promising strategiesfor emerging markets involve establishing innovative products and systemsfor delivering insurance and using technologies and practices that bothreduce vulnerability to disaster-related insurance losses and supportsustainable development (including reducing greenhouse gas emissions).These strategies can enhance sustainable development efforts and increasethe insurability of risks, making insurance markets in emerging marketsmore viable. Emerging markets are especially vulnerable to extremeweather events, which impede development by causing physical damage,compromising human and ecosystem health, diverting scarce resources todisaster relief and recovery, and deterring future investment andinsurance availability by amplifying the risks faced by foreigninterests. An average of 300 million people are affected or killed eachyear by weather-related disasters in emerging markets. Characteristics ofemerging markets contributing to their particular vulnerability incontrast to developed nations include: greater frequency of poverty;weaker lifelines (transportation, communication, utilities, emergencyresponse, and hospitals); poorer quality of construction and absence ofor deficiencies in building codes and other regulations; and

  19. Impacts of Extreme Hot Weather Events on Electricity Consumption in Baden-Wuerttemberg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimler, S.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in electricity consumption due to hot weather events were examined for the German federal state Baden-Württemberg. The analysis consists of three major steps: Firstly, an analysis of the media coverage on the hot summer of 2003 gives direct and indirect information about changes in electricity demand due to changes in consumption patterns. On the one hand there was an overall increase in electricity demand due to the more frequent use of air conditionings, fans, cooling devices and water pumps. On the other hand shifts in electricity consumption took place due to modifications in daily routines: if possible, core working times were scheduled earlier, visitor streams in gastronomy and at events shifted from noon to evening hours, a temporal shifting of purchases took place in early morning or evening hours, and an increased night-activity was documented by a higher number of police operations due to noise disturbances. In a second step, some of the findings of the media analysis were quantified for households in the city region of Karlsruhe. For the chosen electric device groups refrigerators, mini-coolers, air conditionings, fans and electric stoves the difference between the consumption on a hot summer day and a normal summer day was computed. For this purpose, assumptions had to be made on the share of affected households, affected devices or usage patterns. These assumptions were summarized into three scenarios on low, medium and high heat induced changes in electricity consumption. In total, the quantification resulted in a range of about 7.5 to 9.2 % of heat-induced over-consumption related to the average amount of electrical load that is normally provided to Karlsruhe households on a summer's day. A third analysis of summer load curves aimed at testing the following hypotheses derived from the media analysis regarding changes in every-day routines and their effects on shifts in load profiles. To test the hypotheses, correlation tests were applied. (1

  20. Characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of daily extreme temperature events in China: Minimum temperature records in different climate states against the background of the most probable temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qian Zhong-Hua; Hu Jing-Guo; Feng Guo-Lin; Cao Yong-Zhong

    2012-01-01

    Based on the skewed function,the most probable temperature is defined and the spatiotemporal distributions of the frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events in different climate states over China are investigated,where the climate states are referred to as State Ⅰ,State Ⅱ and State Ⅲ,i.e.,the daily minimum temperature records of 1961-1990,1971-2000,and 1981-2009.The results show that in space the frequency of high temperature events in summer decreases clearly in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River in State Ⅰ and that low temperature events decrease in northern China in State Ⅱ.In the present state,the frequency of high temperature events increases significantly in most areas over China except the north east,while the frequency of low temperature events decreases mainly in north China and the regions between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River.The distributions of frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events are consistent in space.The analysis of time evolution of extreme events shows that the occurrence of high temperature events become higher with the change in state,while that of low temperature events decreases.High temperature events are becoming stronger as well and deserve to be paid special attention.

  1. Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F; Donner, Reik V; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2016-08-16

    Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides. PMID:27457927

  2. Impacts of climate variability and extreme events on the terrestrial carbon cycle of the Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, A. B.; Cox, P.; Wiltshire, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, C. D.; Mercado, L.; Groenendijk, M.; Sitch, S.

    2013-12-01

    , biomass, and photosynthesis. Simulated fluxes of net ecosystem exchange, sensible and latent heat fluxes were closest to FLUXNET observations when the model was run with optimized physiological parameters, deep roots, and a relaxed soil moisture stress function. We also compared seasonality of modelled photosynthesis to that implied from measurements of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence from the GOSAT satellite, and found good agreement. This gives us confidence in using the model to assess impacts of climate variability. Over the past several decades, the largest fluxes of CO2 from the biosphere to the atmosphere occurred during years of extreme drought: for example during 1987, 1998, and 2010. We analyse the driving factors behind these fluxes to assess climate sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. The relationship between terrestrial carbon fluxes and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are explored as the largest source of the variability, which can help in predicting future sensitivity of the forest.

  3. Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B

    2011-04-01

    Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.

  4. Extreme flood events and climate change around 3500 aBP in the Central Plains of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIA Zhengkai; WANG Zanhong; ZHAO Qingchun

    2004-01-01

    The Xinzhai Period (3550-3400 aBP) belongs to Late Neolithic Culture, which bridges the Longshan Culture and the Xia Culture in the Central Plains of China. By studying the living environment of ancient human beings at the Xinzhai site, Henan Province, this paper presents the discovery of extreme floods which threatened and destroyed the living environment of the ancient human beings during the Xinzhai Period. Pollen analysis and carbon-oxygen isotope measurement suggest that the climate was warm and wet during the Xinzhai Period, in contrast to the warm and arid climate during the Longshan Culture Period. The frequent flood events were the response of abrupt climate change during the Xinzhai Period. The conclusions drawn from this study not only help better understand the environmental change in the Central Plains of China around 3500 aBP, but also provide important clues to the environmental background for the origin of Chinese civilization.

  5. Temporal changes in allele frequencies in a small marble trout Salmo marmoratus population threatened by extreme flood events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujolar, J M; Vincenzi, S; Zane, L; Crivelli, A J

    2016-03-01

    The effect of extreme floods on the genetic composition of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Lipovscek, a tributary of the Soca River in Slovenia, which has been affected by multiple destructive flood events for centuries was investigated. By monitoring genetic variability during the period 2004-2011, apparent signatures of genetic erosion including a decline in observed and expected heterozygosities and allelic richness were observed. Contemporary effective population size was estimated between 11 and 55 individuals, which is congruent with census data. The data suggest asymmetric gene flow between the two sections of the river. The existence of substantial downstream migration (15-19%) was confirmed by paternity analysis. A small (1-3%) upstream migration was also suggested, which was confirmed by tagging data. Overall, low genetic diversity has not prevented the survival of the Lipovscek population, which might be a common feature of salmonid freshwater populations. PMID:26832308

  6. Determinants of property damage recovery time amongst households affected by an extreme flood event in Metro Manila, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamil Paolo Francisco

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study identified the factors that influence household recovery following an extreme flood event, measured in terms of the length of time to repair, rebuild or replace damaged private property. Data was obtained through a survey of 400 households in Marikina City in Metro Manila, Philippines. Results from the empirical analysis indicated that household income, access to credit (borrowing, the use of a flood alarm system, access to safe shelter, membership in a community organisation, adoption of disaster-specific anticipatory measures and adoption of general preventive measures significantly reduced the time it took for affected households to recover from property damage. Evacuation, relief aid, type of housing, education, household size and frequency of flooding in the area did not have significant effects.

  7. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  8. Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naeslund, Jens-Ove (comp.)

    2006-11-15

    The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge of the climate-related conditions and processes relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Can. The report also includes a concise background description of the climate system. The report includes three main chapters: A description of the climate system (Chapter 2); Identification and discussion of climate-related issues (Chapter 3); and, A description of the evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment (Chapter 4). Chapter 2 includes an overview of present knowledge of the Earth climate system and the climate conditions that can be expected to occur in Sweden on a 100,000 year time perspective. Based on this, climate-related issues relevant for the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository are identified. These are documented in Chapter 3 'Climate-related issues' to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment. Finally, in Chapter 4, 'Evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment' an evolution for a 120,000 year period is presented, including discussions of identified climate-related issues of importance for repository safety. The documentation is from a scientific point of view not exhaustive, since such a treatment is neither necessary for the purposes of the safety assessment nor possible within the scope of a safety assessment. As further described in the SR-Can Main Report and in the Features Events and Processes report, the content of the present report has been audited by comparison with FEP databases compiled in other assessment projects. This report follows as far as possible the template for documentation of processes regarded as internal to the repository system. However, the term processes is not used in this report, instead the term issue has been used. Each issue includes a set of processes together resulting in the

  9. Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge of the climate-related conditions and processes relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Can. The report also includes a concise background description of the climate system. The report includes three main chapters: A description of the climate system (Chapter 2); Identification and discussion of climate-related issues (Chapter 3); and, A description of the evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment (Chapter 4). Chapter 2 includes an overview of present knowledge of the Earth climate system and the climate conditions that can be expected to occur in Sweden on a 100,000 year time perspective. Based on this, climate-related issues relevant for the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository are identified. These are documented in Chapter 3 'Climate-related issues' to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment. Finally, in Chapter 4, 'Evolution of climate-related conditions for the safety assessment' an evolution for a 120,000 year period is presented, including discussions of identified climate-related issues of importance for repository safety. The documentation is from a scientific point of view not exhaustive, since such a treatment is neither necessary for the purposes of the safety assessment nor possible within the scope of a safety assessment. As further described in the SR-Can Main Report and in the Features Events and Processes report, the content of the present report has been audited by comparison with FEP databases compiled in other assessment projects. This report follows as far as possible the template for documentation of processes regarded as internal to the repository system. However, the term processes is not used in this report, instead the term issue has been used. Each issue includes a set of processes together resulting in the behaviour of a

  10. Simulations of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols during the extreme haze events over northern China in October 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dan; Liu, Zhiquan; Fast, Jerome; Ban, Junmei

    2016-08-01

    Extreme haze events have occurred frequently over China in recent years. Although many studies have investigated the formation mechanisms associated with PM2.5 for heavily polluted regions in China based on observational data, adequately predicting peak PM2.5 concentrations is still challenging for regional air quality models. In this study, we evaluate the performance of one configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and use the model to investigate the sensitivity of heterogeneous reactions on simulated peak sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium concentrations in the vicinity of Beijing during four extreme haze episodes in October 2014 over the North China Plain. The highest observed PM2.5 concentration of 469 µg m-3 occurred in Beijing. Comparisons with observations show that the model reproduced the temporal variability in PM2.5 with the highest PM2.5 values on polluted days (defined as days in which observed PM2.5 is greater than 75 µg m-3), but predictions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium were too low on days with the highest observed concentrations. Observational data indicate that the sulfur/nitric oxidation rates are strongly correlated with relative humidity during periods of peak PM2.5; however, the model failed to reproduce the highest PM2.5 concentrations due to missing heterogeneous/aqueous reactions. As the parameterizations of those heterogeneous reactions are not well established yet, estimates of SO2-to-H2SO4 and NO2/NO3-to-HNO3 reaction rates that depend on relative humidity were applied, which improved the simulation of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium enhancement on polluted days in terms of both concentrations and partitioning among those species. Sensitivity simulations showed that the extremely high heterogeneous reaction rates and also higher emission rates than those reported in the emission inventory were likely important factors contributing to those peak PM2.5 concentrations.

  11. Simulations of Sulfate-Nitrate-Ammonium (SNA) aerosols during the extreme haze events over Northern China in 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Dan; Liu, Zhiquan; Fast, Jerome D.; Ban, Junmei

    2016-08-30

    Extreme haze events have occurred frequently over China in recent years. Although many studies have investigated the formation mechanisms associated with PM2.5 for heavily polluted regions in China based on observational data, adequately predicting peak PM2.5 concentrations is still challenging for regional air quality models. In this study, we evaluate the performance of one configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and use the model to investigate the sensitivity of heterogeneous reactions on simulated peak sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium concentrations in the vicinity of Beijing during four extreme haze episodes in October 2014 over the North China Plain. The highest observed PM2.5 concentration of 469 μg m-3 occurred in Beijing. Comparisons with observations show that the model reproduced the temporal variability in PM2.5 with the highest PM2.5 values on polluted days (defined as days in which observed PM2.5 is greater than 75 μg m-3), but predictions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium were too low on days with the highest observed concentrations. Observational data indicate that the sulfur/nitric oxidation rates are strongly correlated with relative humidity during periods of peak PM2.5; however, the model failed to reproduce the highest PM2.5 concentrations due to missing heterogeneous reactions. As the parameterizations of those reactions is not well established yet, estimates of SO2-to-H2SO4 and NO2/NO3-to-HNO3 reaction rates that depend on relative humidity were applied which improved the simulation of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium enhancement on polluted days in terms of both concentrations and partitioning among those species. Sensitivity simulations showed that the extremely high heterogeneous reaction rates and also higher emission rates than those reported in the emission inventory

  12. Two spatial scales in a bleaching event: Corals from the mildest and the most extreme thermal environments escape mortality

    KAUST Repository

    Pineda, Jesús

    2013-07-28

    In summer 2010, a bleaching event decimated the abundant reef flat coral Stylophora pistillata in some areas of the central Red Sea, where a series of coral reefs 100–300 m wide by several kilometers long extends from the coastline to about 20 km offshore. Mortality of corals along the exposed and protected sides of inner (inshore) and mid and outer (offshore) reefs and in situ and satellite sea surface temperatures (SSTs) revealed that the variability in the mortality event corresponded to two spatial scales of temperature variability: 300 m across the reef flat and 20 km across a series of reefs. However, the relationship between coral mortality and habitat thermal severity was opposite at the two scales. SSTs in summer 2010 were similar or increased modestly (0.5°C) in the outer and mid reefs relative to 2009. In the inner reef, 2010 temperatures were 1.4°C above the 2009 seasonal maximum for several weeks. We detected little or no coral mortality in mid and outer reefs. In the inner reef, mortality depended on exposure. Within the inner reef, mortality was modest on the protected (shoreward) side, the most severe thermal environment, with highest overall mean and maximum temperatures. In contrast, acute mortality was observed in the exposed (seaward) side, where temperature fluctuations and upper water temperature values were relatively less extreme. Refuges to thermally induced coral bleaching may include sites where extreme, high-frequency thermal variability may select for coral holobionts preadapted to, and physiologically condition corals to withstand, regional increases in water temperature.

  13. Extreme Cosmic-Ray-Dominated-Regions: a new paradigm for high star formation density events in the Universe

    CERN Document Server

    Thi, Wing-Fai; Viti, Serena

    2010-01-01

    We examine in detail the recent proposal that extreme Cosmic-Ray-Dominated-Regions (CRDRs) characterize the ISM of galaxies during events of high-density star formation, fundamentally altering its initial conditions (Papadopoulos 2010). Solving the coupled chemical and thermal state equations for dense UV-shielded gas reveals that the large cosmic ray energy densities in such systems (U_{CR}~(few)x(10^3-10^4) U_{CR,Gal}) will indeed raise the minimum temperature of this phase (where the initial conditions of star formation are set) from ~10K (as in the Milky Way) to ~(50-100)K. Moreover in such extreme CRDRs the gas temperature remains fully decoupled from that of the dust, with T_{kin} >> T_{dust}, even at high densities (n(H_2)~10^5--10^6 cm^{-3}), quite unlike CRDRs in the Milky Way where T_k~T_{dust} when n(H_2) >= 10^5 cm^{-3}. These dramatically different star formation initial conditions will: a) boost the Jeans mass of UV-shielded gas regions by factors of ~10--100 with respect to those in quiescent o...

  14. Meteorological Drivers of Extremes in Daily Stem Radius Variations of Beech, Oak, and Pine in Northeastern Germany: An Event Coincidence Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegmund, Jonatan F; Sanders, Tanja G M; Heinrich, Ingo; van der Maaten, Ernst; Simard, Sonia; Helle, Gerhard; Donner, Reik V

    2016-01-01

    Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem radius variations, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV) of three domestic tree species (beech, oak, and pine) from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA) to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions. PMID:27375625

  15. Meteorological Drivers of Extremes in Daily Stem Radius Variations of Beech, Oak and Pine in Northeastern Germany: An Event Coincidence Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonatan Frederik Siegmund

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem diameter or radius variations, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV of three domestic tree species (beech, oak and pine from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions.

  16. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme