WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate-driven ecosystem shifts

  1. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith

    2008-01-01

    ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity...

  2. Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

    2018-02-01

    Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

  3. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

    2016-01-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of

  4. Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

    2017-05-01

    Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting

  5. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  6. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  7. Compositional shifts in Costa Rican forests due to climate-driven species migrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeley, Kenneth J; Hurtado, Johanna; Saatchi, Sassan; Silman, Miles R; Clark, David B

    2013-11-01

    Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1-ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70-2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate-driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr(-1) (95% CI = 0.0005-0.0132 °C yr(-1) ). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr(-1) , migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of

  8. Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee

    2016-01-01

    High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since ...... the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses...

  9. Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William

    2017-01-01

    about their external environment, potentially mediated by information transmitted through social learning (i.e. culture). Vertical transmission of culture (between generations) might encourage conservative behaviour, constraining the ability of a species to respond, whilst horizontal transmission...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions......Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...

  10. A Holocene record of climate-driven shifts in coastal carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Siddhartha; Zimmerman, A.R.; Hunsinger, G.B.; Willard, D.; Dunn, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    A sediment core collected in the mesohaline portion of Chesapeake Bay was found to contain periods of increased delivery of refractory black carbon (BC) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The BC was most likely produced by biomass combustion during four centennialscale dry periods as indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), beginning in the late Medieval Warm Period of 1100 CE. In contrast, wetter periods were associated with increased non-BC organic matter influx into the bay, likely due to greater runoff and associated nutrient delivery. In addition, an overall increase in both BC and non-BC organic matter deposition during the past millennium may reflect a shift in climate regime. The finding that carbon sequestration in the coastal zone responds to climate fluctuations at both centennial and millennial scales through fire occurrence and nutrient delivery has implications for past and future climate predictions. Drought-induced fires may lead, on longer timescales, to greater carbon sequestration and, therefore, represent a negative climate feedback. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Fire severity mediates climate-driven shifts in understorey community composition of black spruce stands of interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emily L. Bernhardt; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; F. Stuart Chapin

    2011-01-01

    Question: How do pre-fire conditions (community composition and environmental characteristics) and climate-driven disturbance characteristics (fire severity) affect post-fire community composition in black spruce stands? Location: Northern boreal forest, interior Alaska. Methods: We compared plant community composition and environmental stand characteristics in 14...

  12. When cold is better: climate-driven elevation shifts yield complex patterns of diversification and demography in an alpine specialist (American pika, Ochotona princeps).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbreath, Kurt E; Hafner, David J; Zamudio, Kelly R

    2009-11-01

    The genetic consequences of climate-driven range fluctuation during the Pleistocene have been well studied for temperate species, but cold-adapted (e.g., alpine, arctic) species that may have responded uniquely to past climatic events have received less attention. In particular, we have no a priori expectation for long-term evolutionary consequences of elevation shifts into and out of sky islands by species adapted to alpine habitats. Here, we examined the influence of elevation shifts on genetic differentiation and historical demography in an alpine specialist, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Pika populations are divided into five genetic lineages that evolved in association with separate mountain systems, rather than lineages that reflect individual sky islands. This suggests a role for glacial-period elevation shifts in promoting gene flow among high-elevation populations and maintaining regional cohesion of genetic lineages. We detected a signature of recent demographic decline in all lineages, consistent with the expectation that Holocene climate warming has driven range retraction in southern lineages, but unexpected for northern populations that presumably represent postglacial expansion. An ecological niche model of past and future pika distributions highlights the influence of climate on species range and indicates that the distribution of genetic diversity may change dramatically with continued climate warming.

  13. Simulating the Interacting Effects of Intraspecific Variation, Disturbance, and Competition on Climate-Driven Range Shifts in Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Emily V; Ormond, Rhys A

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to favor shifts in plant distributions; some such shifts are already being observed along elevation gradients. However, the rate of such shifts may be limited by their ability to reach newly suitable areas and by competition from resident species. The degree of local adaptation and genetic variation may also play a role in the interaction between migrants and residents by affecting relative fitness. We used a simulation model to explore the interacting effects of dispersal, fecundity, disturbance, and genetic variation on range-edge dynamics between a pair of demographically similar tree species. Ideal climate for an individual is determined by genotype. The simulated landscape undergoes an 80-year period of climate change in which climate bands shift upslope; subsequently, climate is held constant for 300 years. The presence of a high-elevation competitor caused a significant lag in the range shift of the low-elevation species relative to competition-free scenarios. Increases in fecundity and dispersal distance both helped to speed up the replacement of the high-elevation species by the low-elevation species at their range boundary. While some disturbance scenarios facilitated this transition, frequent canopy disturbance inhibited colonization by removing reproductive adults and led to range contractions in both species. Differences between dispersal scenarios were more pronounced when disturbance was frequent (15 vs. 25 year return interval) and dispersal was limited. When the high-elevation species lacked genetic variation, its range was more-easily invaded by the low-elevation species, while a similar lack of variation in the low-elevation species inhibited colonization-but only when this lack of variation decreased the fitness of the affected species near the range boundary. Our model results support the importance of measuring and including dispersal/fecundity, disturbance type and frequency, and genetic variation when assessing the

  14. Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Groeger, Joachim P.

    2012-01-01

    Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Us...

  15. Climate-driven Shifting in Distribution Patterns of Calanus sinicus Brodsky in the Continental Shelf Waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Q.; Liu, H.; Yan, Q. L.; Fan, J. F.

    2016-02-01

    Large-scale variations in zooplankton dynamics, including the poleward movements and earlier timing of life cycle events, have been widely observed over recent decades. The biogeographical shifts are often related to the increasing sea surface temperature or the long-term climatological change, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (NESO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The Copepod Calanus sinicus Brodsky plays an important trophic role in the continental shelf waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean as a grazer of phytoplankton and main food source for many ecologically and commercially important fish, such as sardine and anchovy. Because of its importance in marine ecosystem dynamics, C. sinicus was selected as one of the "keystone species" in the China-GLOBEC program. In this study, we examined the shifts in spatial patterns of the species within its distribution domain - the Yellow Sea and the northern East China Sea in the 1950s, 1980s and 2010s. We used contour mapping and a mathematical model to locate the geographical distribution center of the species. We found a significant relationship (r=0.594, P<0.05) between the monthly PDO index and the latitudes of the distribution center of C. sinicus, and a lag of two months for copepods to respond the PDO index. Our findings imply a northward shifting in the distribution center, and the northern Yellow Sea is becoming a new distribution center as another possible over-summering site of C. sinicus.

  16. Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

    2017-12-01

    -mode. Thus, this study identifies climate fluctuations as the main driver for hydrological regime shifts in Son Kol controlling physicochemical conditions and consequently causing abrupt species assemblage changes. This emphasizes the importance of multi-proxy approaches to identify triggers, thresholds and cascades of aquatic ecosystem transformations.

  17. Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

  18. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; Ruiter, de P.C.; Koppel, van de J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to

  19. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  20. Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

    2017-10-01

    Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the

  1. The potential for regime shifts in high latitude terrestrial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, P. S.; Goetz, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate constrains the extent of the two major terrestrial biomes at high latitudes: boreal forests and arctic tundra. Model simulations provide considerable evidence that physical and biogeochemical feedbacks from these regions to the climate system act to maintain a status quo of climate and biome distribution. Ongoing anthropogenically driven changes in climate are particularly pronounced in high latitude regions, and empirical evidence for their influence on tundra and boreal ecosystems is mounting. Global vegetation models project changes to accelerate in coming decades, culminating in profound shifts in high latitude biomes by the end of this century. Regime shifts are surprisingly large changes in a system that occur when a it moves between alternative stable states ('attractors'), without the equivalent large shift of an external driver. In association with climate change, regime shifts in ecosystems could theoretically generate significant modifications to ecosystem-climate feedbacks, in the Arctic for example through the respiration or combustion of large amounts of soil carbon. Here we review evidence for historical regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems at high latitudes, including shifts in species dominance and distribution. We describe ongoing changes in characteristics of these ecosystems, including vegetation productivity, composition, and the fire regime, and discuss whether they can be indicators of impeding regime shifts. Finally, we discuss the potential of exploiting regime shifts in tundra and boreal systems for climate change mitigation or resource management by forcing ecosystems to shift towards a more desirable stable state.

  2. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Folke, C.; Carpenter, S.; Walker, B.; Scheffer, M.; Elmqvist, T.; Gunderson, L.; Holling, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    We review the evidence of regime shifts in terrestrial and aquatic environments in relation to resilience of complex adaptive ecosystems and the functional roles of biological diversity in this context. The evidence reveals that the likelihood of regime shifts may increase when humans reduce

  3. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

  4. Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagne, Tyler O; Hyrenbach, K David; Hagemann, Molly E; Van Houtan, Kyle S

    2018-02-01

    Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level-based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher-trophic level to lower-trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems.

  5. Ecosystem Network Shifts As Indicators of Climate Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, A. E.; Kumar, P.

    2014-12-01

    Ecosystem states evolve due to complex interactions over various space and time scales. Process networks, in which nodes are time series variables and directional links are measures of information transfer, provide a method to analyze an ecosystem in terms of feedbacks, information transfer, and synchronization. It has been shown using FLUXNET data and ecohydrological modeling that variables such as precipitation, soil temperature, soil moisture, and heat fluxes exhibit forcings and feedbacks that are altered during periods of climate extremes such as drought. In this study, we use methods to deal with short datasets to observe shifts in network behavior over hourly to daily timescales. We compute network properties including transfer entropy, mutual information, and net system transport. To test our methods, we first generate chaotic test networks of various sizes and connectivity structures. It is found that a single feedback between two nodes causes a "self-feedback" to be detected at both nodes, which propagates throughout the network causing complete connectivity at predictable timescales. Depending on the symmetry of feedbacks and overall connectivity, a network may partially or completely synchronize. We then apply our methods to evaluate short-term ecosystem responses to climate extremes in agricultural landscapes in Illinois. We use 30- minute flux tower data from Bondville, IL, and 1 to15-minute data from recently installed weather stations and flux tower in the Sangamon River watershed to analyze network structure before, during, and after rainfall events or dry periods. Simulations in MLCan, a plant-atmosphere-canopy model, are performed to incorporate unmeasured nodes involving photosynthesis and soil hydrology. We compare the structure of feedbacks, forcings, and synchronization to vegetation response as measured by LAI or NDVI, in addition to a comparison with our test networks. This type of analysis can identify the feedbacks and links critical for

  6. Rapid ecosystem shifts in peatlands: linking plant physiology and succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granath, Gustaf; Strengbom, Joachim; Rydin, Håkan

    2010-10-01

    Stratigraphic records from peatlands suggest that the shift from a rich fen (calcareous fen) to an ombrotrophic bog can occur rapidly. This shift constitutes a switch from a species-rich ecosystem to a species-poor one with greater carbon storage. In this process, the invasion and expansion of acidifying bog species of Sphagnum (peat mosses) play a key role. To test under what conditions an acidifying bog species could invade a rich fen, we conducted three experiments, contrasting the bog species S. fucsum with the rich-fen species S. warnstorfii and S. teres. We first tested the effect of calcareous water by growing the three species at different constant height above the water table (HWT; 2, 7, and 14 cm) in a rich-fen pool and measured maximum photosynthetic rate and production and difference in length growth as an indicator of competition. In none of the species was the photosynthetic capacity negatively affected when placed at low HWT, but S. fuscum was a weaker competitor at low HWT. In our second experiment we transplanted the three species into microhabitats with different and naturally varying HWT in a rich fen. Here, S. fuscum nearly ceased to photosynthesize when transplanted to low HWT (brown moss carpet), while it performed similarly to the two rich-fen species at the intermediate level (S. warnstorfii hummock level). In contrast to S. fuscum, the rich-fen sphagna performed equally well in both habitats. The brown moss carpet was seasonally flooded, and in our third experiment we found that S. fuscum, but not S. teres, was severely damaged when submerged in rich-fen water. Our results suggest two thresholds in HWT affecting the ecosystem switch: one level that reduces the risk of submergence and a higher one that makes bog sphagna competitive against the rich-fen species.

  7. Developing a protocol for long-term population monitoring and habitat projections for a climate-sensitive sentinel species to track ecosystem change and species range shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beers, A.

    2016-12-01

    As a response to ongoing climate change, many species have started to shift their ranges poleward and toward higher elevations and mountain environments are predicted to experience especially rapid climatic changes. Because of this, there is likely a greater risk of habitat loss and local extinctions for species at high elevations compared to species at lower elevations. Among those potentially threatened habitat specialists is the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a climate sensitive indicator of climate change effects which may already be experiencing climate driven extirpations. Pikas are considered sentinels, indicators of greater ecosystem change. Changes in their distribution speaks to changes in availability of resources they require and shifts in the environment. Pika presence is closely tied to sub-surface ice features that act as a temperature buffer and water source. Those sub-surface ice features are critical in water cycling and long-term water storage and drive downstream hydrological and ecological processes. Understanding how this species responds to climate change therefore provides a model to inform landscape level conservation and management decisions. Pikas may be particularly vulnerable in parts of Colorado, including Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) and the Niwot Ridge LTER (NWT), where they may face population collapse as habitat suitability and connectivity both decline in response to various possible climate change scenarios, in large part because of cold stress and declining functional connectivity. Because of their potential role as an ecosystem indicator, their risk for decline, and how limitations to their survival likely vary across their range, management groups can use place based models of habitat suitability for pikas or other sentinel species in designing long term monitoring protocols to detect ecosystem responses to climate change. In this project we used remotely sensed data, occupancy surveys, and a random tessellation

  8. Variance as a Leading Indicator of Regime Shift in Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William A. Brock

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Many environmental conflicts involve pollutants such as greenhouse gas emissions that are dispersed through space and cause losses of ecosystem services. As pollutant emissions rise in one place, a spatial cascade of declining ecosystem services can spread across a larger landscape because of the dispersion of the pollutant. This paper considers the problem of anticipating such spatial regime shifts by monitoring time series of the pollutant or associated ecosystem services. Using such data, it is possible to construct indicators that rise sharply in advance of regime shifts. Specifically, the maximum eigenvalue of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate time series of pollutants and ecosystem services rises prior to the regime shift. No specific knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the regime shift is needed to construct the indicator. Such leading indicators of regime shifts could provide useful signals to management agencies or to investors in ecosystem service markets.

  9. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

    2007-06-19

    Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

  10. Climate-driven Sympatry does not Lead to Foraging Competition Between Adélie and Gentoo Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, M. A.; Moline, M. A.; Fraser, W.; Patterson-Fraser, D.; Oliver, M. J.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species, population shifts and changes in ecosystem structure. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. At Palmer Station, we tested for foraging competition between these species by comparing their prey, Antarctic krill, distributions and penguin foraging behaviors on fine scales. To study these predator-prey dynamics, we simultaneously deployed penguin satellite transmitters, and a REMUS autonomous underwater vehicle that acoustically detected krill aggregations and measured physical and biological properties of the water column. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguin. In the upper 100 m of the water column, the distribution of krill aggregations were mainly associated with CHL and light, suggesting that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. Adélie and gentoo penguins mainly had spatially segregated foraging areas but in areas of overlap, gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is the major driver of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories.

  11. Seasonal shift in net ecosystem production in a tropical estuary

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ram, A.S.P.; Nair, S.; Chandramohan, D.

    Net ecosystem production was examined in the Mandovi and Zuari estuaries (southwestern India) and the adjoining coastal waters for a period of 1 yr (January to December 1998). The study period encompassed premonsoon, monsoon, and postmonsoon seasons...

  12. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate...... change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from...... simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts....

  13. Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

    2015-01-01

    The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Optimizing Computing Platforms for Climate-Driven Ecological Forecasting Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, S. S.; Williams, J. W.

    2016-12-01

    Species distribution models are widely used, climate-driven ecological forecasting tools that use machine-learning techniques to predict species range shifts and ecological responses to 21st century climate change. As high-resolution modern and fossil biodiversity data becomes increasingly available and statistical learning methods become more computationally intensive, choosing the correct computing configuration on which to run these models becomes more important. With a variety of low-cost cloud and desktop computing options available, users of forecasting models must balance performance gains achieved by provisioning more powerful hardware with the cost of using these resources. We present a framework for estimating the optimal computing solution for a given modeling activity. We argue that this framework is capable of identifying the optimal computing solution - the one that maximizes model accuracy while minimizing resource cost and computing time. Our framework is built on constituent models of algorithm execution time, predictive skill, and computing cost. We demonstrate the results of the framework using four leading species distribution models: multivariate adaptive regression splines, generalized additive models, support vector machines, and boosted regression trees. The constituent models themselves are shown to have high predictive accuracy, and can be used independently to estimate the effects of using larger input datasets, such as those that incorporate data from the fossil record. When used together, our framework shows highly significant predictive ability, and is designed to be used by researchers to inform future computing provisioning strategies.

  15. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...

  16. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Implications of spatial heterogeneity for regime shifts in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.

    2005-01-01

    Although alternative stable states are commonly found in simple models, it seems reasonable to assume that the response of real ecosystems to environmental change should often be smoothed by spatial heterogeneity and other stabilizing mechanisms. Here, we systematically explore the effect of spatial

  18. Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Boicenco, Laura; Grishin, Alexandre N; Lazar, Luminita; Mihneva, Vesselina; Shlyakhov, Vladislav A; Zengin, Mustafa

    2017-04-01

    By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem

  19. Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

    2014-01-01

    Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

  20. Shift in fire-ecosystems and weather changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongani Finiza

    2013-01-01

    During recent decades too much focus fell on fire suppression and fire engineering methods. Little attention has been given to understanding the shift in the changing fire weather resulting from the global change in weather patterns. Weather change have gradually changed the way vegetation cover respond to fire occurrence and brought about changes in fire behavior and...

  1. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-01-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

  2. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): evidence of a recent regime shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomczak, Maciej Tomasz; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik

    2012-01-01

    and main outflow to the Kattegat in the east. We showed that from 1990 to 1995, the ecosystem structure shifted from dominance by demersal fish species (eel pout, whiting, flounder, plaice) to that of pelagic fish species (sprat, herring, sticklebacks), smallbodied fish species (black goby, pipefish......), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses...

  3. Trophic niche shifts driven by phytoplankton in sandy beach ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamino, Leandro; Martínez, Ana; Han, Eunah; Lercari, Diego; Defeo, Omar

    2016-10-01

    Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) together with chlorophyll a and densities of surf diatoms were used to analyze changes in trophic niches of species in two sandy beaches of Uruguay with contrasting morphodynamics (i.e. dissipative vs. reflective). Consumers and food sources were collected over four seasons, including sediment organic matter (SOM), suspended particulate organic matter (POM) and the surf zone diatom Asterionellopsis guyunusae. Circular statistics and a Bayesian isotope mixing model were used to quantify food web differences between beaches. Consumers changed their trophic niche between beaches in the same direction of the food web space towards higher reliance on surf diatoms in the dissipative beach. Mixing models indicated that A. guyunusae was the primary nutrition source for suspension feeders in the dissipative beach, explaining their change in dietary niche compared to the reflective beach where the proportional contribution of surf diatoms was low. The high C/N ratios in A. guyunusae indicated its high nutritional value and N content, and may help to explain the high assimilation by suspension feeders at the dissipative beach. Furthermore, density of A. guyunusae was higher in the dissipative than in the reflective beach, and cell density was positively correlated with chlorophyll a only in the dissipative beach. Therefore, surf diatoms are important drivers in the dynamics of sandy beach food webs, determining the trophic niche space and productivity. Our study provides valuable insights on shifting foraging behavior by beach fauna in response to changes in resource availability.

  4. The exergy of a phase shift: Ecosystem functioning loss in seagrass meadows of the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montefalcone, Monica; Vassallo, Paolo; Gatti, Giulia; Parravicini, Valeriano; Paoli, Chiara; Morri, Carla; Bianchi, Carlo Nike

    2015-04-01

    Sustained functioning of ecosystems is predicted to depend upon the maintenance of their biodiversity, structure and integrity. The large consensus achieved in this regard, however, faces to the objective difficulty of finding appropriate metrics to measure ecosystem functioning. Here, we aim at evaluating functional consequence of the phase shift occurring in meadows of the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica, a priority habitat that is undergoing regression in many coastal areas due to multiple human pressures. Structural degradation of the P. oceanica ecosystem, consequent to increasing coastal exploitation and climate change, may result in the progressive replacement of this seagrass by opportunistic macrophytes, either native or alien. Reviewing published information and our personal records, we measured changes in biological habitat provisioning, species richness and biomass associated to each of the alternative states characterizing the phase shift. Then, ecosystem functioning was assessed by computing the exergy associated to each state, exergy being a state variable that measures the ecosystem capacity to produce work. Phase shift was consistently shown to imply loss in habitat provision, species richness, and biomass; structural and compositional loss was parallelled by a reduction of exergy content, thus providing for the first time an objective and integrative measure of the loss of ecosystem functioning following the degradation of healthy seagrass meadows.

  5. Interactions of simulated drought and nutrient additions drive persistent shifts in soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gasses in managed pine ecosystems across the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahm, B. D.; Markewitz, D.; Vogel, J. G.; Gann, C.; Malghani, S.; McElligott, K.; Shrestha, R.; Sutter, L.

    2016-12-01

    Over 13 of the 24 million ha of pine forests in the United States are managed in the southeast as plantations. Fertilization is a common management practice to increase productivity across the region, and occurs on over 400,000 ha annually. Climate projections for the region include decreased precipitation during the growing season and declines in the productivity of these forests are predicted as a result. It is unclear how such management- and climate-driven alterations to productivity will interact. This uncertainty extends to other biogeochemical processes, including feedbacks to the climate system in the form of soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gasses (CO2, N2O, and CH4). Full-factorial fertilization x throughfall reduction experiments at the stand scale were replicated across the range of managed loblolly pine in the southeastern United States. Within that experiment, soil greenhouse gas fluxes were quantified seasonally using vented static chambers. Consistent shifts in soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gasses were observed across the regional network. Main effects of fertilization or throughfall reduction were inconsistent, but the interaction of fertilization and throughfall reduction significantly increased soil CO2 and N2O emissions, and decreased soil CH4 uptake. Of particular interest was the duration of the observed responses. Other studies have shown ephemeral shifts in the soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gasses in response to individual forest fertilization events that rarely last beyond a year or single growing season. Here we observe changes in these fluxes that were immediate and have continued to persist four years after treatment initiation. The magnitude and duration of this dynamic is important to better quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on the potential for these managed forest ecosystems to mitigate climate change.

  6. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

  7. Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

    2017-11-01

    Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

  8. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  9. Regime shifts in bistable water-stressed ecosystems due to amplification of stochastic rainfall patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis; Dentz, Marco; Juanes, Ruben

    2015-05-01

    We develop a framework that casts the point water-vegetation dynamics under stochastic rainfall forcing as a continuous-time random walk (CTRW), which yields an evolution equation for the joint probability density function (PDF) of soil-moisture and biomass. We find regime shifts in the steady-state PDF as a consequence of changes in the rainfall structure, which flips the relative strengths of the system attractors, even for the same mean precipitation. Through an effective potential, we quantify the impact of rainfall variability on ecosystem resilience and conclude that amplified rainfall regimes reduce the resilience of water-stressed ecosystems, even if the mean annual precipitation remains constant.

  10. Shifts in the distribution of molting Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) indicate ecosystem change in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexson, Matthew; Petersen, Margaret; Breed, Greg A.; Powell, Abby N.

    2016-01-01

    Shifts in the distribution of benthivorous predators provide an indication of underlying environmental changes in benthic-mediated ecosystems. Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) are benthivorous sea ducks that spend the nonbreeding portion of their annual cycle in the Bering, Chukchi, Beaufort, and East Siberian seas. Sea ducks generally molt in biologically productive areas with abundant prey. If the distribution of eiders at molting areas matches prey abundance, spatial shifts may indicate changes in environmental conditions in the Arctic. We used a randomization procedure to test for shifts in the distribution of satellite telemetry locations received from Spectacled Eiders in the 1990s and 2008–2011 within 4 late-summer, ice-free molting areas: Indigirka–Kolyma, northern Russia; Ledyard Bay, eastern Chukchi Sea; Norton Sound, northeastern Bering Sea; and Mechigmenskiy Gulf, northwestern Bering Sea. We also tested for interannual and interdecadal changes in dive depth required to reach prey, which might affect the energetic costs of foraging during the molting period. Transmitter-marked birds used each molting area in each year, although the distribution of Spectacled Eiders shifted within each area. Interdecadal shifts in Ledyard Bay and Norton Sound decreased dive depth in recent years, although minor differences in depth were biologically negligible in relation to the energetic expense of feather growth. Shifts in Mechigmenskiy Gulf and Indigirka–Kolyma did not occur consistently within or among decades, which suggests greater interannual variability among environmental factors that influence distribution in these areas. Shifts in each molting area suggest dynamic ecosystem processes, with implications for Spectacled Eiders if changes result in novel competition or predation, or in shifting prey regimes.

  11. Impacts of shifting fire regime on ecosystem carbon storage capacity in the interior Alaskan forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Kelly, R.; Hu, F.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is the primary disturbance in the boreal forest, and variations in fire regimes have important ecological, biogeochemical, and socioeconomic implications. Recent widespread burning throughout the biome has been convincingly linked to climatic warming, with expectations of increased burning with future climate change. However, fire-regime dynamics are scale-dependent, and it is unclear whether empirical climate-fire relationships derived from the short observational record are applicable to future projections. Paleo-fire reconstructions offer a valuable extension to historical fire records by providing a context for ongoing change and offering insights to the causes and consequences of fire regime shifts over decades to millennia. The main objectives of this study are to address 1) how fire regime shift impacts ecosystem C dynamics at a millennial time scale; and 2) which factor is more important in regulating the dynamics of ecosystem C storage capacity at decades to millennium scales among fire, CO2 and temperature. In this study, the REGIME model (Weng et al. JGR, 2012) has been modified to evaluate the dynamics of ecosystem C storage capacity (the theoretic capacity of an ecosystem to store C) since 3000 years BP for the black spruce forests in interior Alaska under the influence of changing fire regime, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and climate warming, all of which were derived from paleo-data. In addition, C storage capacity was also modeled through the 21 century using IPCC scenarios for CO2 and temperature, and fire regime scenario derived based on a paleo-fire dataset. Overall, fire frequency has been constant but fire severity has increased significantly since 3000 years BP for the studied area. Our results indicate that this fire regime shifting alone or in combination with temperature and/or CO2 always decrease ecosystem C storage capacity over the past 3000 years. Among the single factors, fire regime shifting results in the greatest

  12. Initial shifts in nitrogen impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes in an alpine meadow: patterns and causes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Song

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Increases in nitrogen (N deposition can greatly stimulate ecosystem net carbon (C sequestration through positive N-induced effects on plant productivity. However, how net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE and its components respond to different N addition rates remains unclear. Using an N addition gradient experiment (six levels: 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 gN m−2 yr−1 in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, we explored the responses of different ecosystem C fluxes to an N addition gradient and revealed mechanisms underlying the dynamic responses. Results showed that NEE, ecosystem respiration (ER, and gross ecosystem production (GEP all increased linearly with N addition rates in the first year of treatment but shifted to N saturation responses in the second year with the highest NEE (−7.77 ± 0.48 µmol m−2 s−1 occurring under an N addition rate of 8 gN m−2 yr−1. The saturation responses of NEE and GEP were caused by N-induced accumulation of standing litter, which limited light availability for plant growth under high N addition. The saturation response of ER was mainly due to an N-induced saturation response of aboveground plant respiration and decreasing soil microbial respiration along the N addition gradient, while decreases in soil microbial respiration under high N addition were caused by N-induced reductions in soil pH. We also found that various components of ER, including aboveground plant respiration, soil respiration, root respiration, and microbial respiration, responded differentially to the N addition gradient. These results reveal temporal dynamics of N impacts and the rapid shift in ecosystem C fluxes from N limitation to N saturation. Our findings bring evidence of short-term initial shifts in responses of ecosystem C fluxes to increases in N deposition, which should be considered when predicting long-term changes in ecosystem net C sequestration.

  13. Drought-induced vegetation shifts in terrestrial ecosystems: The key role of regeneration dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

    2016-09-01

    Ongoing climate change is modifying climatic conditions worldwide, with a trend towards drier conditions in most regions. Vegetation will respond to these changes, eventually adjusting to the new climate. It is unclear, however, how close different ecosystems are to climate-related tipping points and, thus, how dramatic these vegetation changes will be in the short- to mid-term, given the existence of strong stabilizing processes. Here, we review the published evidence for recent drought-induced vegetation shifts worldwide, addressing the following questions: (i) what are the necessary conditions for vegetation shifts to occur? (ii) How much evidence of drought-induced vegetation shifts do we have at present and where are they occurring? (iii) What are the main processes that favor/oppose the occurrence of shifts at different ecological scales? (iv) What are the complications in detecting and attributing drought-induced vegetation shifts? (v) What ecological factors can interact with drought to promote shifts or stability? We propose a demographic framework to classify the likely outcome of instances of drought-induced mortality, based upon the survival of adults of potential replacement species and the regeneration of both formerly dominant affected species and potential replacement species. Out of 35 selected case studies only eight were clearly consistent with the occurrence of a vegetation shift (species or biome shift), whereas three corresponded to self-replacements in which the affected, formerly dominant species was able to regenerate after suffering drought-induced mortality. The other 24 cases were classified as uncertain, either due to lack of information or, more commonly, because the initially affected and potential replacement species all showed similar levels of regeneration after the mortality event. Overall, potential vegetation transitions were consistent with more drought-resistant species replacing less resistant ones. However, almost half (44

  14. Ecosystem management can mitigate vegetation shifts induced by climate change in African savannas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheiter, Simon; Savadogo, Patrice

    2017-04-01

    The welfare of people in the tropics and sub-tropics strongly depends on goods and services that ecosystems supply. Flows of these ecosystem services are strongly influenced by interactions between climate change and land use. A prominent example are savannas, covering approximately 20% of the Earth's land surface. Key ecosystem services in these areas are fuel wood for cooking and heating, food production and livestock. Changes in the structure and dynamics of savanna vegetation may strongly influence local people's living conditions, as well as the climate system and biogeochemical cycles. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore interactive effects of climate and land use on the vegetation structure, distribution and carbon cycling of African savannas under current and future conditions. More specifically, we simulate long term impacts of fire management, grazing and fuel wood harvesting. The model projects that under future climate without human land use impacts, large savanna areas would shift towards more wood dominated vegetation due to CO2 fertilization effects and changes in water use efficiency. However, land use activities can mitigate climate change impacts on vegetation to maintain desired ecosystem states that ensure fluxes of important ecosystem services. We then use optimization algorithms to identify sustainable land use strategies that maximize the utility of people managing savannas while preserving a stable vegetation state. Our results highlight that the development of land use policy for tropical and sub-tropical areas needs to account for climate change impacts on vegetation.

  15. Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Feldman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

  16. Persistent natural acidification drives major distribution shifts in marine benthic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, C.; Vidal, M.; Canals, M.; Kersting, D. K.; Amblas, D.; Aspillaga, E.; Cebrián, E.; Delgado-Huertas, A.; Díaz, D.; Garrabou, J.; Hereu, B.; Navarro, L.; Teixidó, N.; Ballesteros, E.

    2015-01-01

    Ocean acidification is receiving increasing attention because of its potential to affect marine ecosystems. Rare CO2 vents offer a unique opportunity to investigate the response of benthic ecosystems to acidification. However, the benthic habitats investigated so far are mainly found at very shallow water (less than or equal to 5 m depth) and therefore are not representative of the broad range of continental shelf habitats. Here, we show that a decrease from pH 8.1 to 7.9 observed in a CO2 vent system at 40 m depth leads to a dramatic shift in highly diverse and structurally complex habitats. Forests of the kelp Laminaria rodriguezii usually found at larger depths (greater than 65 m) replace the otherwise dominant habitats (i.e. coralligenous outcrops and rhodolith beds), which are mainly characterized by calcifying organisms. Only the aragonite-calcifying algae are able to survive in acidified waters, while high-magnesium-calcite organisms are almost completely absent. Although a long-term survey of the venting area would be necessary to fully understand the effects of the variability of pH and other carbonate parameters over the structure and functioning of the investigated mesophotic habitats, our results suggest that in addition of significant changes at species level, moderate ocean acidification may entail major shifts in the distribution and dominance of key benthic ecosystems at regional scale, which could have broad ecological and socio-economic implications. PMID:26511045

  17. Ecosystem services and opportunity costs shift spatial priorities for conserving forest biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Schröter

    Full Text Available Inclusion of spatially explicit information on ecosystem services in conservation planning is a fairly new practice. This study analyses how the incorporation of ecosystem services as conservation features can affect conservation of forest biodiversity and how different opportunity cost constraints can change spatial priorities for conservation. We created spatially explicit cost-effective conservation scenarios for 59 forest biodiversity features and five ecosystem services in the county of Telemark (Norway with the help of the heuristic optimisation planning software, Marxan with Zones. We combined a mix of conservation instruments where forestry is either completely (non-use zone or partially restricted (partial use zone. Opportunity costs were measured in terms of foregone timber harvest, an important provisioning service in Telemark. Including a number of ecosystem services shifted priority conservation sites compared to a case where only biodiversity was considered, and increased the area of both the partial (+36.2% and the non-use zone (+3.2%. Furthermore, opportunity costs increased (+6.6%, which suggests that ecosystem services may not be a side-benefit of biodiversity conservation in this area. Opportunity cost levels were systematically changed to analyse their effect on spatial conservation priorities. Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services trades off against timber harvest. Currently designated nature reserves and landscape protection areas achieve a very low proportion (9.1% of the conservation targets we set in our scenario, which illustrates the high importance given to timber production at present. A trade-off curve indicated that large marginal increases in conservation target achievement are possible when the budget for conservation is increased. Forty percent of the maximum hypothetical opportunity costs would yield an average conservation target achievement of 79%.

  18. Ecosystem Services and Opportunity Costs Shift Spatial Priorities for Conserving Forest Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Matthias; Rusch, Graciela M.; Barton, David N.; Blumentrath, Stefan; Nordén, Björn

    2014-01-01

    Inclusion of spatially explicit information on ecosystem services in conservation planning is a fairly new practice. This study analyses how the incorporation of ecosystem services as conservation features can affect conservation of forest biodiversity and how different opportunity cost constraints can change spatial priorities for conservation. We created spatially explicit cost-effective conservation scenarios for 59 forest biodiversity features and five ecosystem services in the county of Telemark (Norway) with the help of the heuristic optimisation planning software, Marxan with Zones. We combined a mix of conservation instruments where forestry is either completely (non-use zone) or partially restricted (partial use zone). Opportunity costs were measured in terms of foregone timber harvest, an important provisioning service in Telemark. Including a number of ecosystem services shifted priority conservation sites compared to a case where only biodiversity was considered, and increased the area of both the partial (+36.2%) and the non-use zone (+3.2%). Furthermore, opportunity costs increased (+6.6%), which suggests that ecosystem services may not be a side-benefit of biodiversity conservation in this area. Opportunity cost levels were systematically changed to analyse their effect on spatial conservation priorities. Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services trades off against timber harvest. Currently designated nature reserves and landscape protection areas achieve a very low proportion (9.1%) of the conservation targets we set in our scenario, which illustrates the high importance given to timber production at present. A trade-off curve indicated that large marginal increases in conservation target achievement are possible when the budget for conservation is increased. Forty percent of the maximum hypothetical opportunity costs would yield an average conservation target achievement of 79%. PMID:25393951

  19. Abrupt shifts in ecosystem function and intensification of global biogeochemical cycle driven by hydroclimatic extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Zhang, Yongguang; Xie, Zunyi; Giovannini, Leandro; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

    2016-04-01

    Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is increasing the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme climate events globally. The potential influences resulting from amplification of the hydro-climatic cycle, coupled with an accelerating warming trend, pose great concerns on the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, maintain biodiversity, provide ecosystem services, food security, and support human livelihood. Despite the great implications, the magnitude, direction, and carry-over effect of these extreme climate events on ecosystem function, remain largely uncertain. To address these pressing issues, we conducted an observational, interdisciplinary study using satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis (chlorophyll fluorescence), and in-situ flux tower measures of ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, to reveal the shifts in ecosystem function across extreme drought and wet periods. We further determine the factors that govern ecosystem sensitivity to hydroclimatic extremes. We focus on Australia but extended our analyses to other global dryland regions due to their significant role in global biogeochemical cycles. Our results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet hydroclimatic extremes on ecosystem function, with abrupt changes in vegetation productivity, carbon uptake, and water-use-efficiency between years. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of vegetation growth seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during extreme drought years. We further identified a significant increasing trend (p Australia and many other global regions, resulting in an increasing trend in magnitude of the episodic carbon sink pulses coupled to each La Niña-induced wet years. This finding is of global biogeochemical significance, with the consequence of amplifying the global carbon cycle. Lastly, we use landscape

  20. Shifting Restoration Policy to Address Landscape Change, Novel Ecosystems, and Monitoring

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    Joy B. Zedler

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy to guide ecological restoration needs to aim toward minimizing the causes of ecosystem degradation; where causes cannot be eliminated or minimized, policy needs to shift toward accommodating irreversible landscape alterations brought about by climate change, nitrogen deposition, altered hydrology, degraded soil, and declining biodiversity. The degree to which lost diversity and ecosystem services can be recovered depends on the extent and nature of landscape change. For wetlands that occur at the base of watersheds that have been developed for agriculture or urban centers, the inflows of excess water, sediment, and nutrients can be permanent and can severely challenge efforts to restore historical services, including biodiversity support. In such cases, the historical state of downstream wetlands will not be completely restorable. Wetland restoration policy should promote watershed planning, wherein wetland and upland restoration is prioritized to achieve multiple, specific ecosystem services. For downstream wetlands, it is realistic to aim to enhance nitrogen removal and to establish native plants that are matrix dominants, namely, those that facilitate rather than displace other natives. More ambitious objectives such as maximizing diversity would be suitable for less-altered, upstream wetlands. Policy should also call for adaptive restoration and long-term assessments. For large sites and multiple sites of a given wetland type within a region, experimental tests can determine a wetland's ability to support high levels of ecosystem services. Once projects are underway, long-term monitoring of structural and functional indicators can characterize progress toward each objective. Managers can then learn which targets are unachievable based on data, not just opinion. Where an experimental treatment shows limited progress, practitioners would shift to more promising treatments and targets, thereby adapting restoration efforts to changing

  1. Soil Carbon Stocks in a Shifting Ecosystem; Climate Induced Migration of Mangroves into Salt Marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, L.; Osborne, T.; Feller, I. C.

    2015-12-01

    Across the globe, coastal wetland vegetation distributions are changing in response to climate change. The increase in global average surface temperature has already caused shifts in the structure and distribution of many ecological communities. In parts of the southeastern United States, increased winter temperatures have resulted in the poleward range expansion of mangroves at the expense of salt marsh habitat. Our work aims to document carbon storage in the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone and any potential changes in this reservoir that may ensue due to the shifting range of this habitat. Differences in SOM and C stocks along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Florida will be presented. The gradient studied spans 342 km and includes pure mangrove habitat, the salt marsh - mangrove ecotone, and pure salt marsh habitat.This latitudinal gradient gives us an exceptional opportunity to document and investigate ecosystem soil C modifications as mangroves transgress into salt marsh habitat due to climatic change.

  2. Regime Shifts and Ecosystem Service Generation in Swedish Coastal Soft Bottom Habitats: When Resilience is Undesirable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Troell

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystems can undergo regime shifts where they suddenly change from one state into another.  This can have important implications for formulation of management strategies, if system characteristics develop that are undesirable from a human perspective, and that have a high resistance to restoration efforts. This paper identifies some of the ecological and economic consequences of increased abundance of filamentous algae on shallow soft bottoms along the Swedish west coast. It is suggested that a successive increase in the sediment nutrient pool has undermined the resilience of these shallow systems. After the regime shift has occurred, self-generation properties evolve keeping the system locked in a high-density algae state. The structural and functional characteristics of the new system state differ significantly from the original one, resulting in less valuable ecosystem goods and services generated for society. In Sweden, loss of value results from the reduced capacity for mitigating further coastal eutrophication, reduced habitat quality for commercial fishery species, and the loss of aesthetic and recreational values.

  3. Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

    2012-01-01

    Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts

  4. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebergesell, Mario; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

  5. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Liebergesell

    Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  6. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebergesell, Mario; Reu, Björn; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Peñuelas, Josep; Wirth, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  7. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanbauer, Trisha L; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Nash, Kirsty L; Stone, Jeffery R; Stow, Craig A; Sundstrom, Shana M

    2016-06-29

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. © 2016 The Author(s).

  8. Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

    2017-05-01

    In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

  9. An anthropogenic habitat within a suboptimal colonized ecosystem provides improved conditions for a range-shifting species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannizzo, Zachary J; Dixon, Sara R; Griffen, Blaine D

    2018-02-01

    Many species are shifting their ranges in response to the changing climate. In cases where such shifts lead to the colonization of a new ecosystem, it is critical to establish how the shifting species itself is impacted by novel environmental and biological interactions. Anthropogenic habitats that are analogous to the historic habitat of a shifting species may play a crucial role in the ability of that species to expand or persist in suboptimal colonized ecosystems. We tested if the anthropogenic habitat of docks, a likely mangrove analog, provides improved conditions for the range-shifting mangrove tree crab Aratus pisonii within the colonized suboptimal salt marsh ecosystem. To test if docks provided an improved habitat, we compared the impact of the salt marsh and dock habitats on ecological and life history traits that influence the ability of this species to persist and expand into the salt marsh and compared these back to baselines in the historic mangrove ecosystem. Specifically, we examined behavior, physiology, foraging, and the thermal conditions of A. pisonii in each habitat. We found that docks provide a more favorable thermal and foraging habitat than the surrounding salt marsh, while their ability to provide conditions which improved behavior and physiology was mixed. Our study shows that anthropogenic habitats can act as analogs to historic ecosystems and enhance the habitat quality for range-shifting species in colonized suboptimal ecosystems. If the patterns that we document are general across systems, then anthropogenic habitats may play an important facilitative role in the range shifts of species with continued climate change.

  10. Paradigm shifts in fish conservation: moving to the ecosystem services concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowx, I G; Portocarrero Aya, M

    2011-12-01

    Various factors constrain the existence and development of inland fishes and fisheries, such as pollution, habitat degradation, alien invasive species, local user conflicts, low social priority and inadequate research and funding. In many cases, however, degradation of the environment and loss of aquatic habitat are the predominant concerns for the conservation of freshwater aquatic biota. The need for concerted effort to prevent and reduce environmental degradation, as well as protection of freshwater fishes and fisheries as renewable common pool resources or entities in their own right, are the greatest challenges facing the conservation of fishes in inland waters. Unfortunately, traditional conservation practices such as regulation of exploitation, protected areas and habitat restoration have failed to arrest the alarming increase in number of threatened freshwater fish species worldwide. This paper examines the shifting paradigm of fisheries management from rule-based regulation, through fishery enhancement towards the ecosystem approach to fisheries, with reference to inland waters, and how the emerging concept of ecosystem services coupled with traditional fish conservation management practices, institutional restructuring and integrated management planning should provide a more sustainable thrust to formulation and promotion of fish conservation initiatives. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  11. Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Ooi, Ying W

    2018-05-01

    Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. © 2017

  12. Retrospective analysis of Bering Sea bottom trawl surveys: regime shift and ecosystem reorganization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conners, M. E.; Hollowed, A. B.; Brown, E.

    2002-10-01

    This paper compiles data from bottom trawl surveys using variations on a 400-mesh eastern trawl gear into a 38-year time series (1963-2000), using a robust index of median catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an indicator of regional abundance. Time series are presented for three index sites in the southeastern Bering Sea: the inner shelf in Bristol Bay, the middle shelf north of Unimak Island, and the outer shelf near the Pribilof Islands. All three sites show strong evidence of a shift in benthic biomass and community structure in the early to mid-1980s. During this period, all three sites showed substantial increases in the abundances of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, rock sole, flathead sole, cartilaginous fishes (skates) and non-crab benthic invertebrates. Species composition, especially of flatfish, differs at the three sites, but the trend for groundfish abundance to increase was consistent at all three sites. The similarity in trends both across the region and across both commercial and unexploited groups suggests to us that a complete reorganization of benthic and demersal food webs may have taken place. The timing of change in trawl catch weight is consistent with effects of the strong regime shift observed in climate indices in 1976-1977. There is little evidence of similar biological responses to subsequent, less pronounced changes in climate. Our data are also consistent with recently documented shifts in ecosystem dynamics resulting from changes in ice cover and thermal structure in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analysis indicates that there was a much higher biomass of groundfish at all three sites during 1980-2000 than in 1960-1980. This result provides evidence against the hypothesis that the overall productivity of the eastern Bering Sea has decreased. The precipitous decline of the endangered Steller sea lion in this region from 1975-1985 was concurrent with an overall increase in abundance of groundfish prey.

  13. Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

    2015-12-01

    Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Body-size spectra of biofilm-dwelling protozoa and their seasonal shift in coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lu; Xu, Guangjian; Wang, Zheng; Xu, Henglong

    2016-10-01

    Community-based assessment of protozoa is usually performed at a taxon-dependent resolution. As an inherent 'taxon-free' trait, however, body-size spectrum has proved to be a highly informative indicator to summarize the functional structure of a community in both community research and monitoring programs in aquatic ecosystems. To demonstrate the relationships between the taxon-free resolution of protozoan communities and water conditions, the body-size spectra of biofilm-dwelling protozoa and their seasonal shift and environmental drivers were explored based on an annual dataset collected monthly from coastal waters of the Yellow Sea, northern China. Body sizes were calculated in equivalent spherical diameter (ESD). Among a total of 8 body-size ranks, S2 (19-27μm), S3 (28-36μm), S4 (37-50μm) and S5 (53-71μm) were the top four levels in frequency of occurrence, while rank S1 (13-17μm), S2 and S4 were the dominant levels in abundance. These dominants showed a clear seasonal succession: S2/S4 (spring)→S2/S4 (summer)→S4 (autumn)→S2 (winter) in frequency of occurrence; S1 (spring)→S4 (summer)→S2 (autumn)→S1 (winter) in abundance. Bootstrapped average analysis showed a clear seasonal shift in body-size spectra of the protozoa during a 1-year cycle, and the best-matching analysis demonstrated that the temporal variations in frequency of occurrence and abundance were significantly correlated with water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), alone or in combination with chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nutrients. Thus, the body-size spectra of biofilm-dwelling protozoa were seasonally shaped and might be used as a time and cost efficient bioindicator of water quality in marine ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  15. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

    2017-02-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

  16. Nutrient reduction and climate change cause a potential shift from pelagic to benthic pathways in a eutrophic marine ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Blenckner, T.; Stenseth, N.C.

    2012-01-01

    for the occurrence of regime shifts and the relative importance of multiple drivers, e.g., climate change, eutrophication and commercial fishing on ecosystem dynamics and trophic pathways. Using multivariate statistics and nonlinear regression on a comprehensive data set, covering abiotic factors and biotic...... large and abrupt changes, i.e., trophic cascades and ecological regime shifts, which once having occurred may prove potentially irreversible. In this study, we investigate the state and regulatory pathways of the Kattegat; a eutrophied and heavily exploited marine ecosystem, specifically testing...... variables across all trophic levels, we here propose a potential regime shift from pelagic to benthic regulatory pathways; a possible first sign of recovery from eutrophication likely triggered by drastic nutrient reductions (involving both nitrogen and phosphorus), in combination with climate...

  17. Regime shifts of Cruces River wetland ecosystem: current conditions, future uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor H Marín

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available During April-May 2004 the Cruces River wetland ecosystem, located in Valdivia (40°S, southern Chile, was described as shifting from a clear water regime, dominated by the exotic macrophyte Egeria densa, to turbid waters and absence of submerged macrophytes. We analyzed the trophic status and ecological regime of the wetland from November 2011 through January 2013. The trophic status was determined comparing values of selected variables (nutrients, chlorophyll-a and transparency with OECD criteria. The ecological regime was determined comparing the same variables with the criteria proposed by Ibelings et al. (2007. We further compared the concentration of nutrients and suspended solids with previous measurements. Current trophic status of the wetland is between eutrophic and hypereutrophic, as shown by results, and its ecological regime intermediate, between clear and turbid waters, with a considerable risk of returning to turbid waters. In this article we discuss the potential relationship between the watershed land use (agriculture, cattle feeding and forestry, the change in wetland's trophic level and future conditions.

  18. Climate-driven diversity dynamics in plants and plant-feeding insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, Tommi; Linder, Hans Peter; Peña, Carlos; Malm, Tobias; Wahlberg, Niklas

    2012-08-01

    The origin of species-rich insect-plant food webs has traditionally been explained by diversifying antagonistic coevolution between plant defences and herbivore counter-defences. However, recent studies combining paleoclimatic reconstructions with time-calibrated phylogenies suggest that variation in global climate determines the distribution, abundance and diversity of plant clades and, hence, indirectly influences the balance between speciation and extinction in associated herbivore groups. Extant insect communities tend to be richest on common plant species that have many close relatives. This could be explained either by climate-driven diffuse cospeciation between plants and insects, or by elevated speciation and reduced extinction in herbivore lineages associated with expanding host taxa (resources). Progress in paleovegetation reconstructions in combination with the rapidly increasing availability of fossil-calibrated phylogenies provide means to discern between these alternative hypotheses. In particular, the 'Diffuse cospeciation' scenario predicts closely matching main diversification periods in plants and in the insects that feed upon them, while the 'Resource abundance-dependent diversification' hypothesis predicts that both positive and negative responses of insect diversity are lagged in relation to host-plant availability. The dramatic Cenozoic changes in global climate provide multiple possibilities for studying the mechanisms by which climatic shifts may drive diversity dynamics in plants and insect herbivores. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Shifts of community composition and population density substantially affect ecosystem function despite invariant richness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spaak, Jurg W.; Baert, Jan M.; Baird, Donald J.; Eisenhauer, Nico; Maltby, Lorraine; Pomati, Francesco; Radchuk, Viktoriia; Rohr, Jason R.; Brink, van den Paul J.; Laender, De Frederik

    2017-01-01

    There has been considerable focus on the impacts of environmental change on ecosystem function arising from changes in species richness. However, environmental change may affect ecosystem function without affecting richness, most notably by affecting population densities and community

  20. Greenness and Carbon Stocks of Mangroves: A climate-driven Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lule, A. V.; Colditz, R. R.; Herrera-Silveira, J.; Guevara, M.; Rodriguez-Zuniga, M. T.; Cruz, I.; Ressl, R.; Vargas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mangroves cover less than 1% of the earth's surface and are one o­­­f the most productive ecosystems of the world. They are highly vulnerable to climate variability due to their sensitivity to environmental changes; therefore, there are scientific and societal needs to designed frameworks to assess mangrove's vulnerability. We study the relationship between climate drivers, canopy greenness and carbon stocks to quantify a potential climate-driven effect on mangrove carbon dynamics. We identify greenness trends and their relationships with climate drivers and carbon stocks throughout 15 years (2001-2015) across mangrove forests of Mexico. We defined several categories for mangroves: a) Arid mangroves with superficial water input (ARsw); b) Humid mangroves with interior or underground water input (HUiw); and c) Humid mangroves with superficial water input (HUsw). We found a positive significant trend of greenness for ARsw and HUsw categories (p 0.69). Precipitation and temperature drive canopy greenness only across HUsw. Regarding carbon stocks, the HUiw shows the lower amount of aboveground carbon (AGC; 12.7 Mg C ha-1) and the higher belowground carbon (BGC; 219 Mg C ha-1). The HUsw shows the higher amount of AGC (169.5 Mg C ha-1) and the ARsw the lower of BGC (92.4 Mg C ha-1). Climate drivers are better related with canopy greenness and AGC for both humid mangrove categories (r2 > 0.48), while the relationship of BGC and canopy greenness is lower for all categories (r2 < 0.21). Our results have implications for better understanding mangrove's ecosystem function and environmental services, as well as their potential vulnerability to climate variability.

  1. Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göckede, Mathias; Kittler, Fanny; Kwon, Min Jung; Burjack, Ina; Heimann, Martin; Kolle, Olaf; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergey

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic conditions are a key factor in Arctic ecosystems, with strong influences on ecosystem structure and related effects on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. With systematic changes in water availability expected for large parts of the northern high-latitude region in the coming centuries, knowledge on shifts in ecosystem functionality triggered by altered water levels is crucial for reducing uncertainties in climate change predictions. Here, we present findings from paired ecosystem observations in northeast Siberia comprising a drained and a control site. At the drainage site, the water table has been artificially lowered by up to 30 cm in summer for more than a decade. This sustained primary disturbance in hydrologic conditions has triggered a suite of secondary shifts in ecosystem properties, including vegetation community structure, snow cover dynamics, and radiation budget, all of which influence the net effects of drainage. Reduced thermal conductivity in dry organic soils was identified as the dominating drainage effect on energy budget and soil thermal regime. Through this effect, reduced heat transfer into deeper soil layers leads to shallower thaw depths, initially leading to a stabilization of organic permafrost soils, while the long-term effects on permafrost temperature trends still need to be assessed. At the same time, more energy is transferred back into the atmosphere as sensible heat in the drained area, which may trigger a warming of the lower atmospheric surface layer.

  2. Climate-driven diversification in two widespread Galerida larks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crochet Pierre-André

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The major impact of Plio-Pleistocene climatic oscillations on the current genetic structure of many species is widely recognised but their importance in driving speciation remains a matter of controversies. In addition, since most studies focused on Europe and North America, the influence of many other biogeographic barriers such as the Sahara remains poorly understood. In this paper, climate-driven diversification was investigated by using a comparative phylogeographic approach in combination with phenotypic data in two avian species groups distributed on both sides of the deserts belt of Africa and Asia. In particular, we tested whether: 1 vicariance diversification events are concomitant with past climatic events; and 2 current ecological factors (using climate and competition as proxies contribute to phenotypic divergence between allopatric populations. Results Mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data indicated that the crested and Thekla lark species groups diverged in the early Pliocene and that subsequent speciation events were congruent with major late Pliocene and Pleistocene climatic events. In particular, steep increase in aridity in Africa near 2.8 and 1.7 million years ago were coincident with two north-south vicariance speciation events mediated by the Sahara. Subsequent glacial cycles of the last million years seem to have shaped patterns of genetic variation within the two widespread species (G. cristata and G. theklae. The Sahara appears to have allowed dispersal from the tropical areas during climatic optima but to have isolated populations north and south of it during more arid phases. Phenotypic variation did not correlate with the history of populations, but was strongly influenced by current ecological conditions. In particular, our results suggested that (i desert-adapted plumage evolved at least three times and (ii variation in body size was mainly driven by interspecific competition, but the response

  3. Climate-driven diversification in two widespread Galerida larks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaumet, Alban; Crochet, Pierre-André; Pons, Jean-Marc

    2008-01-29

    The major impact of Plio-Pleistocene climatic oscillations on the current genetic structure of many species is widely recognised but their importance in driving speciation remains a matter of controversies. In addition, since most studies focused on Europe and North America, the influence of many other biogeographic barriers such as the Sahara remains poorly understood. In this paper, climate-driven diversification was investigated by using a comparative phylogeographic approach in combination with phenotypic data in two avian species groups distributed on both sides of the deserts belt of Africa and Asia. In particular, we tested whether: 1) vicariance diversification events are concomitant with past climatic events; and 2) current ecological factors (using climate and competition as proxies) contribute to phenotypic divergence between allopatric populations. Mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data indicated that the crested and Thekla lark species groups diverged in the early Pliocene and that subsequent speciation events were congruent with major late Pliocene and Pleistocene climatic events. In particular, steep increase in aridity in Africa near 2.8 and 1.7 million years ago were coincident with two north-south vicariance speciation events mediated by the Sahara. Subsequent glacial cycles of the last million years seem to have shaped patterns of genetic variation within the two widespread species (G. cristata and G. theklae). The Sahara appears to have allowed dispersal from the tropical areas during climatic optima but to have isolated populations north and south of it during more arid phases. Phenotypic variation did not correlate with the history of populations, but was strongly influenced by current ecological conditions. In particular, our results suggested that (i) desert-adapted plumage evolved at least three times and (ii) variation in body size was mainly driven by interspecific competition, but the response to competition was stronger in more arid

  4. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mark Scriber

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

  5. Shifts in ecosystem services in deprived urban areas: understanding people's responses and consequences for well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marthe L. Derkzen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Urban commons are under pressure. City development has led to the encroachment and ecological degradation of urban open space. Although there is growing insight that urban ecosystems need to be protected, there is hardly any attention for the consequences (of both pressures and protection efforts for vulnerable human population groups. We aim to understand how urban development affects the well-being of the urban poor, through shifts in ecosystem services (ES and people's responses to these shifts. We performed household interviews and group mapping sessions in seven urban lake communities in Bangalore, India. Changes at Bangalore's lakes can be summarized by three trends: privatization followed by conversion, pollution followed by degradation, and restoration followed by gentrification. Over time, this resulted in a shift in the types of ES supplied and demanded, the nature of use, and de facto governance: from provisioning, communal and public; to cultural, individual, and private. Lake dwellers responded by finding (other sources of income, accepting lower quality or less accessible ES, and/or completely stopping the use of certain ES. The consequences of ecosystem change for people's well-being differ depending on a household's ability to adapt and on individual circumstances, land tenure and financial capital in particular. To guarantee a future for Bangalore's lakes, restoration seems the only viable option. Although beautiful lake parks may be a solution for the well-off and not-too-poor, leaving the very poor without options to adapt to the new circumstances puts them at risk of becoming even more marginalized. We show that ecosystem degradation and restoration alike can impact the well-being of the urban poor. People's experiences allowed us to couple ecosystem change to well-being through ES and adaptation strategies. Hence, we revealed multiple cause-effect relations. Understanding these relations contributes to sustainable urban

  6. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem into methane source

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, A.L.; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Blok, D.; Limpens, J.; Elberling, B.; Gallagher, A.; Li, B.; Petrov, R.E.; Maximov, T.C.; van Huissteden, J.; Berendse, F.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic tundra ecosystems are warming almost twice as fast as the global average. Permafrost thaw and the resulting release of greenhouse gases from decomposing soil organic carbon have the potential to accelerate climate warming. In recent decades, Arctic tundra ecosystems have changed rapidly,

  7. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem to a methane source

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, A.L.; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Blok, D.; Limpens, J.; Elberling, B.; Gallagher, A.; Li, B.; Petrov, R.E.; Maximov, T.C.; Huissteden, van J.; Berendse, F.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic tundra ecosystems are warming almost twice as fast as the global average1. Permafrost thaw and the resulting release of greenhouse gases from decomposing soil organic carbon have the potential to accelerate climate warming2, 3. In recent decades, Arctic tundra ecosystems have changed

  8. Property rights, institutional regime shifts and the provision of freshwater ecosystem services on the Pongola River floodplain, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bimo Abraham Nkhata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a property rights perspective to interpret institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. Institutional regime shifts are conceived as persistent changes in the structure and function of a system. Property rights are viewed as an important component of institutional regimes. The paper draws on a case study of flow regulation on the Pongolo Floodplain in South Africa to illustrate the central role of property rights in mediating institutional regime shifts. The case study illustrates that there are many combinations of property rights that underpin institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. It provides useful insights into the consequences of failing to recognize, establish and enforce bundles of rights. A major thrust of the case study is that the nature and context of property rights are important in determining the long-term provision of these services. By examining the configurations of property rights that have governed the Pongola River floodplain over the years, the paper demonstrates the importance of explicitly defining and categorizing the range of rights.

  9. Insights into the Sensitivity and Resilience of Riparian Ecosystems to Flow Regime Shifts Through a Coupled Ecogeomorpic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diehl, R. M.; Wilcox, A. C.; Merritt, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    Management of river systems relies on an understanding of the relationship between flow and ecosystem properties. Flow response curves formalize this relationship by empirically linking the form and/or function of the biota or physical template of a river system to a change in flow properties. To gain insight into the coupled nature of riparian ecosystems, and make predictions about their response to a change in discharge, we built an ecogeomorphic model from a series of flow response curves based on data collected on the Yampa and Green Rivers, Colorado and Utah. These curves relate attributes of the flow regime to the 1) presence/absence of groupings of functionally similar plants (riparian response guilds), 2) plant cover density, and 3) plot-scale topographic response to a single flood event. Our model successfully identifies the spatial distribution of suitable plant guild habitat and has moderate success predicting the magnitude and direction of the geomorphic response to flood events. The shape of the resulting response curves are non-linear and exhibit clear thresholds. These features suggest that ecogeomorphic processes that shape riparian communities are at times highly sensitive, and at other times highly resilient, to the magnitude and direction of shifts in the flow regime. We explore this observation by comparing the trajectory of riparian ecosystem adjustment for three future flow scenarios in the Yampa River. The six plant guilds we model all show sensitivity to shifts in some part of the flow regime, and resilience to others. Erosional and depositional patterns respond in part to the shifts in guild distributions, but also in part in response to changes in flow hydraulics. Use of guilds in our model facilitates generalization across large environmental gradients and across systems. The linkages among environmental conditions, riparian plant community dynamics, and morphodynamics represented in our ecogeomorphic model makes this approach a powerful

  10. Shifts of community composition and population density substantially affect ecosystem function despite invariant richness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaak, Jurg W; Baert, Jan M; Baird, Donald J; Eisenhauer, Nico; Maltby, Lorraine; Pomati, Francesco; Radchuk, Viktoriia; Rohr, Jason R; Van den Brink, Paul J; De Laender, Frederik

    2017-10-01

    There has been considerable focus on the impacts of environmental change on ecosystem function arising from changes in species richness. However, environmental change may affect ecosystem function without affecting richness, most notably by affecting population densities and community composition. Using a theoretical model, we find that, despite invariant richness, (1) small environmental effects may already lead to a collapse of function; (2) competitive strength may be a less important determinant of ecosystem function change than the selectivity of the environmental change driver and (3) effects on ecosystem function increase when effects on composition are larger. We also present a complementary statistical analysis of 13 data sets of phytoplankton and periphyton communities exposed to chemical stressors and show that effects on primary production under invariant richness ranged from -75% to +10%. We conclude that environmental protection goals relying on measures of richness could underestimate ecological impacts of environmental change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

    2017-01-01

    The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. The benthic shift of the Frisian Front (Southern North Sea) ecosystem : possible mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amaro, T.P.F.

    2005-01-01

    In the southern areas of the Frisian Front (southernNorth Sea), a drastic shift in the abundance of most of themacrobenthicfauna during 1992-1997 has also been revealed. Especially a shift in abundances from the brittle star Amphiura

  13. Identifying Shifts in Leaf-Litter Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) across Ecosystem Boundaries Using Multiple Sampling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiezik, Michal; Svitok, Marek; Wieziková, Adela; Dovčiak, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Global or regional environmental changes in climate or land use have been increasingly implied in shifts in boundaries (ecotones) between adjacent ecosystems such as beech or oak-dominated forests and forest-steppe ecotones that frequently co-occur near the southern range limits of deciduous forest biome in Europe. Yet, our ability to detect changes in biological communities across these ecosystems, or to understand their environmental drivers, can be hampered when different sampling methods are required to characterize biological communities of the adjacent but ecologically different ecosystems. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) have been shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and vegetation and they require different sampling methods in closed vs. open habitats. We compared ant assemblages of closed-forests (beech- or oak-dominated) and open forest-steppe habitats in southwestern Carpathians using methods for closed-forest (litter sifting) and open habitats (pitfall trapping), and developed an integrated sampling approach to characterize changes in ant assemblages across these adjacent ecosystems. Using both methods, we collected 5,328 individual ant workers from 28 species. Neither method represented ant communities completely, but pitfall trapping accounted for more species (24) than litter sifting (16). Although pitfall trapping characterized differences in species richness and composition among the ecosystems better, with beech forest being most species poor and ecotone most species rich, litter sifting was more successful in identifying characteristic litter-dwelling species in oak-dominated forest. The integrated sampling approach using both methods yielded more accurate characterization of species richness and composition, and particularly so in species-rich forest-steppe habitat where the combined sample identified significantly higher number of species compared to either of the two methods on their own. Thus, an integrated sampling

  14. Identifying Shifts in Leaf-Litter Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae across Ecosystem Boundaries Using Multiple Sampling Methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Wiezik

    Full Text Available Global or regional environmental changes in climate or land use have been increasingly implied in shifts in boundaries (ecotones between adjacent ecosystems such as beech or oak-dominated forests and forest-steppe ecotones that frequently co-occur near the southern range limits of deciduous forest biome in Europe. Yet, our ability to detect changes in biological communities across these ecosystems, or to understand their environmental drivers, can be hampered when different sampling methods are required to characterize biological communities of the adjacent but ecologically different ecosystems. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae have been shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and vegetation and they require different sampling methods in closed vs. open habitats. We compared ant assemblages of closed-forests (beech- or oak-dominated and open forest-steppe habitats in southwestern Carpathians using methods for closed-forest (litter sifting and open habitats (pitfall trapping, and developed an integrated sampling approach to characterize changes in ant assemblages across these adjacent ecosystems. Using both methods, we collected 5,328 individual ant workers from 28 species. Neither method represented ant communities completely, but pitfall trapping accounted for more species (24 than litter sifting (16. Although pitfall trapping characterized differences in species richness and composition among the ecosystems better, with beech forest being most species poor and ecotone most species rich, litter sifting was more successful in identifying characteristic litter-dwelling species in oak-dominated forest. The integrated sampling approach using both methods yielded more accurate characterization of species richness and composition, and particularly so in species-rich forest-steppe habitat where the combined sample identified significantly higher number of species compared to either of the two methods on their own. Thus, an integrated

  15. Identifying Shifts in Leaf-Litter Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) across Ecosystem Boundaries Using Multiple Sampling Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiezik, Michal; Svitok, Marek; Wieziková, Adela; Dovčiak, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Global or regional environmental changes in climate or land use have been increasingly implied in shifts in boundaries (ecotones) between adjacent ecosystems such as beech or oak-dominated forests and forest-steppe ecotones that frequently co-occur near the southern range limits of deciduous forest biome in Europe. Yet, our ability to detect changes in biological communities across these ecosystems, or to understand their environmental drivers, can be hampered when different sampling methods are required to characterize biological communities of the adjacent but ecologically different ecosystems. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) have been shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and vegetation and they require different sampling methods in closed vs. open habitats. We compared ant assemblages of closed-forests (beech- or oak-dominated) and open forest-steppe habitats in southwestern Carpathians using methods for closed-forest (litter sifting) and open habitats (pitfall trapping), and developed an integrated sampling approach to characterize changes in ant assemblages across these adjacent ecosystems. Using both methods, we collected 5,328 individual ant workers from 28 species. Neither method represented ant communities completely, but pitfall trapping accounted for more species (24) than litter sifting (16). Although pitfall trapping characterized differences in species richness and composition among the ecosystems better, with beech forest being most species poor and ecotone most species rich, litter sifting was more successful in identifying characteristic litter-dwelling species in oak-dominated forest. The integrated sampling approach using both methods yielded more accurate characterization of species richness and composition, and particularly so in species-rich forest-steppe habitat where the combined sample identified significantly higher number of species compared to either of the two methods on their own. Thus, an integrated sampling

  16. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem to a methane source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Ake L.; Heijmans, Monique P.D.; Blok, Daan

    2015-01-01

    Arctic tundra ecosystems are warming almost twice as fast as the global average1. Permafrost thaw and the resulting release of greenhouse gases from decomposing soil organic carbon have the potential to accelerate climate warming2,3. In recent decades, Arctic tundra ecosystems have changed rapidly4......, including expansion of woody vegetation5,6, in response to changing climate conditions. How such vegetation changes contribute to stabilization or destabilization of the permafrost is unknown. Here we present six years of field observations in a shrub removal experiment at a Siberian tundra site. Removing...... experiment demonstrate the importance of the vegetation cover for protection of the massive carbon reservoirs stored in the permafrost and illustrate the strong vulnerability of these tundra ecosystems to perturbations. If permafrost thawing can more frequently trigger such local permafrost collapse, methane...

  17. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doney, Scott C; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Duffy, J Emmett; Barry, James P; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A; Galindo, Heather M; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M; Hollowed, Anne B; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N; Sydeman, William J; Talley, Lynne D

    2012-01-01

    In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doney, Scott C.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Emmett Duffy, J.; Barry, James P.; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A.; Galindo, Heather M.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N.; Sydeman, William J.; Talley, Lynne D.

    2012-01-01

    In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

  19. Warming Alters the Size Spectrum and Shifts the Distribution of Biomass in Aquatic Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Body size is one of the key determinants of community structure. The relationship between abundance and body size can explain how community biomass is partitioned among the biota of an ecosystem. We used an aquatic mesocosm experiment to determine how warming of ~4?C would affect the body size, biomass and taxonomic structure of planktonic communities. We found that warming increased the steepness of the slope of the community size spectrum, primarily by altering the phyto...

  20. North Atlantic ecosystem shifts revealed by cod otolith δ15N and δ13C chronologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Brøgger; Nielsen, Jens Munk; Steingrund, Petur

    . To study the link between environmental changes and ecosystem trophic structure we developed δ15N and δ13C chronologies by analyzing the organic matrix of cod otoliths from the Faroe Shelf cod population (1950-2010) and the Nuuk Fjord cod population (1927-2009). Significant correlations between δ15N & δ13C...... of organic matrix of otolith core material (Nuuk Fjord) and annual growth increments in Ocean Quahog (A. Islandica) shells will be included....

  1. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  2. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2010-09-01

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  3. Regime shifts in demersal assemblages of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: a comparative assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkman, Stephen P.; Yemane, Dawit; Atkinson, Lara J.

    2015-01-01

    the importance of accounting for changes in sampling protocols during the analysis and interpretation of long‐term data. For Angola, a community level shift in the mid‐2000s and population‐level changes for a few species (mainly positive), could not have been influenced by gear changes which took place mainly...

  4. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  5. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida: models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Langer

    Full Text Available Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  6. Climate-Driven Changes Within the Larch Forest of Northern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.

    2015-12-01

    Thanks to the support of NASA's Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Focus Area programs, joint NASA/ Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences studies have been conducted throughout Siberia. The overall objective has been to obtain field and satellite measurements to examine carbon stocks and track changes in forests across this vast area. In this presentation, we discuss some of the finding from this 25+ year collaboration' i.e., observed climate-driven changes within larch communities in northern Siberia. Field measurements and satellite data, including Terra/MODIS, Landsat, GRACE and QuickBird were used for analysis of forest conditions. The following results will be discussed. (1). At the northern limit of larch (Larix gmelinii) range (i.e.,~72°N) tree mortality was observed during the cooling period from the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century. Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) trees re-establishment followed warming temperatures by the middle of the19th century. The current tree line has recovered to the pre-LIA line location although tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower. The mean rate of upward migration was found to be 0.35 m yr-1 (with a range of 0.21-0.58). (2) The migration of the "dark needle conifers" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) into the southern margin zone of larch dominated forest was documented. Meanwhile, within the traditional DNC range decline and mortality of both Siberian pine and fir were observed and attributed, primarily, due to an increased drought. (3) Within Central Siberia larch growth is limited by early summer temperatures and available water from thawing permafrost. Larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), drought (SPEI; r = 0.68-0.82), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), previous year precipitation (r = 0.63) and soil water anomalies (r = 0.79). Larch TRW growth and Gross Primary Productivity

  7. Shifting species ranges and changing phenology: A new approach to mining social media for ecosystems observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuka, M. Z.; Osborne-Gowey, J. D.; Fuka, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    Geoscientists & ecologists are increasingly using social media to solicit 'citizen scientists' to participate in the data collection process. However, social media users are also a largely untapped resource of spontaneous, unsolicited observations of the natural world. Of particular interest are observations of species phenology & range to better develop a predictive understanding of how ecosystems are affected by a changing climate and human-mediated influences. Social media users' observations include information on phenological & biological phenomena such as flowers blooming, native & invasive species sightings, unusual behaviors, animal tracks, droppings, damage, feeding, nesting, etc. Our AGU2011 pilot study on the North American armadillo suggests that useful observational data can be extracted from Twitter to map current species ranges to compare with past ranges. We have expanded that work by mining Twitter for a number of North American species and ecosystem observations to determine usefulness for environmental applications such as: 1) supplementing existing databases, 2) identifying outlier phenomena, 3) guiding additional crowd-sourced studies and data collection efforts, 4) recruiting citizen scientists, 5) gauging sentiment about the observations and 6) informing ecosystems policy-making and education. We present the results for our evaluation of a representative sample from a list of 200+ species for which we've collected data since August 2011. Our results include frequency of reports and sightings by day, week and month, where the number of observations range from a few per month to ten or more per day. We discuss challenges, best practices and tools for distilling information from crowd-sourced observations gathered via Twitter in the form of 140-character 'tweets'. For example, geolocation is a critical issue. Despite the prevalence of smart phones, specific latitudinal and longitudinal coordinates are included in fewer than 10% of the

  8. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Reed

    Full Text Available The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  9. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Adam J; Thatje, Sven; Linse, Katrin

    2012-01-01

    The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  10. Tropical Atlantic climate and ecosystem regime shifts during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieling, Joost; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röhl, Ursula; Westerhold, Thomas; Bohaty, Steven M.; Sluijs, Appy

    2018-01-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma) was a phase of rapid global warming associated with massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system from a 13C-depleted reservoir. Many midlatitude and high-latitude sections have been studied and document changes in salinity, hydrology and sedimentation, deoxygenation, biotic overturning, and migrations, but detailed records from tropical regions are lacking. Here, we study the PETM at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 959 in the equatorial Atlantic using a range of organic and inorganic proxies and couple these with dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblage analysis. The PETM at Site 959 was previously found to be marked by a ˜ 3.8 ‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and a ˜ 4 °C surface ocean warming from the uppermost Paleocene to peak PETM, of which ˜ 1 °C occurs before the onset of the CIE. We record upper Paleocene dinocyst assemblages that are similar to PETM assemblages as found in extratropical regions, confirming poleward migrations of ecosystems during the PETM. The early stages of the PETM are marked by a typical acme of the tropical genus Apectodinium, which reaches abundances of up to 95 %. Subsequently, dinocyst abundances diminish greatly, as do carbonate and pyritized silicate microfossils. The combined paleoenvironmental information from Site 959 and a close-by shelf site in Nigeria implies the general absence of eukaryotic surface-dwelling microplankton during peak PETM warmth in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, most likely caused by heat stress. We hypothesize, based on a literature survey, that heat stress might have reduced calcification in more tropical regions, potentially contributing to reduced deep sea carbonate accumulation rates, and, by buffering acidification, also to biological carbonate compensation of the injected carbon during the PETM. Crucially, abundant organic benthic foraminiferal linings imply sustained export production, likely driven by prokaryotes. In

  11. Tropical Atlantic climate and ecosystem regime shifts during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frieling

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma was a phase of rapid global warming associated with massive carbon input into the ocean–atmosphere system from a 13C-depleted reservoir. Many midlatitude and high-latitude sections have been studied and document changes in salinity, hydrology and sedimentation, deoxygenation, biotic overturning, and migrations, but detailed records from tropical regions are lacking. Here, we study the PETM at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP Site 959 in the equatorial Atlantic using a range of organic and inorganic proxies and couple these with dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst assemblage analysis. The PETM at Site 959 was previously found to be marked by a  ∼  3.8 ‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE and a  ∼  4 °C surface ocean warming from the uppermost Paleocene to peak PETM, of which  ∼  1 °C occurs before the onset of the CIE. We record upper Paleocene dinocyst assemblages that are similar to PETM assemblages as found in extratropical regions, confirming poleward migrations of ecosystems during the PETM. The early stages of the PETM are marked by a typical acme of the tropical genus Apectodinium, which reaches abundances of up to 95 %. Subsequently, dinocyst abundances diminish greatly, as do carbonate and pyritized silicate microfossils. The combined paleoenvironmental information from Site 959 and a close-by shelf site in Nigeria implies the general absence of eukaryotic surface-dwelling microplankton during peak PETM warmth in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, most likely caused by heat stress. We hypothesize, based on a literature survey, that heat stress might have reduced calcification in more tropical regions, potentially contributing to reduced deep sea carbonate accumulation rates, and, by buffering acidification, also to biological carbonate compensation of the injected carbon during the PETM. Crucially, abundant organic benthic foraminiferal linings imply

  12. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  13. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schmid, B. V.; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. R.; Ginzler, Ch.; Walloe, L.; Bramanti, B.; Stenseth, N. C.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 112, č. 10 (2015), s. 3020-3025 ISSN 0027-8424 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : yersinia-pestis * xenopsylla-cheopis * bubonic plague * central-asia * synchrony * dynamics * transmission * temperature * populations * thresholds * Yersinia pestis * medieval epidemiology * climate-driven disease dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 9.423, year: 2015 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/10/3020.full.pdf

  14. Climate change implications of shifting forest management strategy in a boreal forest ecosystem of Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Ryan M; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Astrup, Rasmus; Cherubini, Francesco; Kvalevåg, Maria; Strømman, Anders H

    2014-02-01

    Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand-level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear-cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of −0.13 °C at a deciduous site and −0.25 °C at a clear-cut site were observed over a 6-year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes – despite predicted long-term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business-as-usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO2 emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned −8 to −159 Tg-CO2-eq., depending on whether near-term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately −20 to −300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon-only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive – and at best – suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a

  15. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brice B Hanberry

    Full Text Available Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850 and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008, we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and

  16. Impact of shifts in agriculture practices on lake ecosystems from SE Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iurian, Andra-Rada; Csaba Begy, Robert; Szabolcs, Kelemen; Simon, Hedvig; Martonos, Ildiko Melinda; Mircea Margineanu, Romul

    2017-04-01

    Well preserved lacustrine and wetland areas of special ecological interest from Ialomitei and Danube River Basins were investigated with the aim to assess temporal and spatial variability in sediment accumulation rates in relation to the multiple socio-economic and political changes that occurred with the rise and fall of socialism (1948-1989) in Romania. These shifts in the political systems resulted in space dynamics of the main land use/cover classes and their quality, a new type of landed property and land exploitation. The temporal context for the study (last 100 years) was provided by Pb-210 geochronology with Chernobyl Cs-137 as independent chronological marker. The study sites are located on the Southern Romanian Plain (Danube Plain), the main agricultural area in Romania, well known for high productivity of soils and good crop yields. The post-communist land reform resulted in the excessive fragmentation of farm land and the marked degradation of soil quality, leading to increased land vulnerability to extreme weathering and eventually to its abandonment in low-productive regions. The results are discussed in the context of the chronological data, sediment composition and historic meteorological records. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-RU-TE-2014-4-1772.

  17. Palaeo leaf economics reveal a shift in ecosystem function associated with the end-Triassic mass extinction event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, W K; Wright, I J; Bacon, K L; Lenz, T I; Steinthorsdottir, M; Parnell, A C; McElwain, J C

    2017-07-17

    Climate change is likely to have altered the ecological functioning of past ecosystems, and is likely to alter functioning in the future; however, the magnitude and direction of such changes are difficult to predict. Here we use a deep-time case study to evaluate the impact of a well-constrained CO 2 -induced global warming event on the ecological functioning of dominant plant communities. We use leaf mass per area (LMA), a widely used trait in modern plant ecology, to infer the palaeoecological strategy of fossil plant taxa. We show that palaeo-LMA can be inferred from fossil leaf cuticles based on a tight relationship between LMA and cuticle thickness observed among extant gymnosperms. Application of this new palaeo-LMA proxy to fossil gymnosperms from East Greenland reveals significant shifts in the dominant ecological strategies of vegetation found across the Triassic-Jurassic transition. Late Triassic forests, dominated by low-LMA taxa with inferred high transpiration rates and short leaf lifespans, were replaced in the Early Jurassic by forests dominated by high-LMA taxa that were likely to have slower metabolic rates. We suggest that extreme CO 2 -induced global warming selected for taxa with high LMA associated with a stress-tolerant strategy and that adaptive plasticity in leaf functional traits such as LMA contributed to post-warming ecological success.

  18. Spectral decomposition of regulatory thresholds for climate-driven fluctuations in hydro- and wind power availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wörman, A.; Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Zmijewski, N.; Riml, J.

    2017-08-01

    Climate-driven fluctuations in the runoff and potential energy of surface water are generally large in comparison to the capacity of hydropower regulation, particularly when hydropower is used to balance the electricity production from covarying renewable energy sources such as wind power. To define the bounds of reservoir storage capacity, we introduce a dedicated reservoir volume that aggregates the storage capacity of several reservoirs to handle runoff from specific watersheds. We show how the storage bounds can be related to a spectrum of the climate-driven modes of variability in water availability and to the covariation between water and wind availability. A regional case study of the entire hydropower system in Sweden indicates that the longest regulation period possible to consider spans from a few days of individual subwatersheds up to several years, with an average limit of a couple of months. Watershed damping of the runoff substantially increases the longest considered regulation period and capacity. The high covariance found between the potential energy of the surface water and wind energy significantly reduces the longest considered regulation period when hydropower is used to balance the fluctuating wind power.

  19. Climate-driven variation in the intensity of a host-symbiont animal interaction along a broad elevation gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Meléndez

    Full Text Available Gradients of environmental stress may affect biotic interactions in unpredictable ways responding to climate variation, depending on the abiotic stress tolerance of interacting partners. Here, we study the effect of local climate on the intensity of feather mites in six mountain passerines along a 1400 m elevational gradient characterized by shifting temperature and rainfall. Although obligatory symbionts of warm-blooded organisms are assumed to live in mild and homeothermic environments, those inhabiting external, non-blood-irrigated body portions of the host organism, such as feather mites, are expected to endure exposure to the direct influence of a fluctuating climate. As expected, feather mite intensity declined with elevation in all bird species, a pattern that was also found in cold-adapted passerines that have typical alpine habits. The elevation cline was mainly explained by a positive effect of the average temperature upon mite intensity in five of the six species studied. Precipitation explained less variance in mite intensity than average temperature, and showed a negative correlation in half of the studied species. We found no climate-driven migration of mites along the wings of birds, no replacement of mite species along elevation gradients and no association with available food resources for mites (estimated by the size of the uropygial gland. This study suggests that ectosymbionts of warm-blooded animals may be highly sensitive to climatic variation and become less abundant under stressful environmental conditions, providing empirical evidence of the decline of specialized biotic interactions among animal species at high elevations.

  20. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  1. Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hicks Pries, C.E.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Schuur, E.A.G.; Natali, S.M.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Aerts, R.; Dorrepaal, E.

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change

  2. Monitoring strategies of stream phosphorus under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyenola, Guillermo; Meerhoff, Marianna; Teixeira-de Mello, Franco

    2015-01-01

    Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from land to downstream aquatic systems, in particular of phosphorus (P) from agricultural lands. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the differences in P export patterns and the pe...... relevant in currently flashy systems and also in systems where climate change predictions suggest an increase in stream flashiness.......Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from land to downstream aquatic systems, in particular of phosphorus (P) from agricultural lands. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the differences in P export patterns...... and the performance of alternative monitoring strategies in streams under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes. We compared a set of paired streams draining lowland micro-catchments under temperate climate and stable discharge conditions (Denmark) and under sub-tropical climate and flashy conditions (Uruguay). We...

  3. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2015-01-01

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  4. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

  5. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari S Myksvoll

    Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  6. J1-M267 Y lineage marks climate-driven pre-historical human displacements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tofanelli, Sergio; Ferri, Gianmarco; Bulayeva, Kazima; Caciagli, Laura; Onofri, Valerio; Taglioli, Luca; Bulayev, Oleg; Boschi, Ilaria; Alù, Milena; Berti, Andrea; Rapone, Cesare; Beduschi, Giovanni; Luiselli, Donata; Cadenas, Alicia M; Awadelkarim, Khalid Dafaallah; Mariani-Costantini, Renato; Elwali, Nasr Eldin; Verginelli, Fabio; Pilli, Elena; Herrera, Rene J; Gusmão, Leonor; Paoli, Giorgio; Capelli, Cristian

    2009-11-01

    The present day distribution of Y chromosomes bearing the haplogroup J1 M267(*)G variant has been associated with different episodes of human demographic history, the main one being the diffusion of Islam since the Early Middle Ages. To better understand the modes and timing of J1 dispersals, we reconstructed the genealogical relationships among 282 M267(*)G chromosomes from 29 populations typed at 20 YSTRs and 6 SNPs. Phylogenetic analyses depicted a new genetic background consistent with climate-driven demographic dynamics occurring during two key phases of human pre-history: (1) the spatial expansion of hunter gatherers in response to the end of the late Pleistocene cooling phases and (2) the displacement of groups of foragers/herders following the mid-Holocene rainfall retreats across the Sahara and Arabia. Furthermore, J1 STR motifs previously used to trace Arab or Jewish ancestries were shown unsuitable as diagnostic markers for ethnicity.

  7. Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local

  8. Making the ecosystem approach operational-Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Österblom, H.; Gårdmark, A.; Bergström, L.

    2010-01-01

    Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social–ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem...... of the Baltic Sea sub-basins, and their driving forces, points to a number of challenges. There is however a movement towards a new governance regime. Bottom-up pilot initiatives can lead to a diffusion of innovation within the existing governance framework. Top-down, enabling EU legislation, can help...

  9. Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tyler L.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Rover, Jennifer R.; Koch, Joshua C.; Bertram, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

  10. Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tyler L; Lindberg, Mark S; Schmutz, Joel A; Heglund, Patricia J; Rover, Jennifer; Koch, Joshua C; Bertram, Mark R

    2015-03-01

    Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985-1989 to 2010-2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Monitoring climate-driven ice regime shifts of Pan-Arctic lakes with long-term satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surdu, Cristina; Fernandez Prieto, Diego; Duguay, Claude

    2017-04-01

    Arctic lakes represent an important part of the global cryosphere and the timing of the seasonal freeze-thaw cycle, and the fraction of lakes freezing to the bed in winter, are a useful tool for monitoring the impacts on the cryosphere from global climate change and warming Arctic temperatures. Lake ice-cover both forces and responds to climate variability. Freeze-up and break-up timing of the lake ice cover affects ecological processes and land-atmosphere energy exchanges. Trends in the phenology and thickness of the ice tend to be related to climatic and meteorological conditions, such as variations in air temperature and snow cover. To date, records of ice phenology and winter maximum ice thickness for shallow Arctic lakes are relatively sparse and vary in length thus limiting detection of longer-term trends at a regional scale. In this study, break-up timing and winter maximum ice thickness was observed for over 900, mainly small and medium size lakes, of various depths, many of which are shallow, across the Arctic, from 1992 to 2016, using satellite imagery. To evaluate the extent of changes that lake ice has undergone in recent climate conditions, three key, lake-rich Arctic regions were selected: the North Slope of Alaska (with the longest observational record), the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Lena Della in northern Siberia. This research provides a detailed spatial analysis of changes in ice break-up, winter maximum ice thickness and summer ice minimum for High Arctic lakes, investigating regional trends and regional comparison, and climatic drivers for each region.

  12. Day length unlikely to constrain climate-driven shifts in leaf-out times of northern woody plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zohner, Constantin M.; Benito, Blas M.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S.

    2016-12-01

    The relative roles of temperature and day length in driving spring leaf unfolding are known for few species, limiting our ability to predict phenology under climate warming. Using experimental data, we assess the importance of photoperiod as a leaf-out regulator in 173 woody species from throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and we also infer the influence of winter duration, temperature seasonality, and inter-annual temperature variability. We combine results from climate- and light-controlled chambers with species’ native climate niches inferred from georeferenced occurrences and range maps. Of the 173 species, only 35% relied on spring photoperiod as a leaf-out signal. Contrary to previous suggestions, these species come from lower latitudes, whereas species from high latitudes with long winters leafed out independent of photoperiod. The strong effect of species’ geographic-climatic history on phenological strategies complicates the prediction of community-wide phenological change.

  13. Response of pollen diversity to the climate-driven altitudinal shift of vegetation in the Colombian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Chengyu; Hooghiemstra, Henry; Duivenvoorden, Joost F

    2007-02-28

    Change in diversity of fossil pollen through time is used as a surrogate for biodiversity history. However, there have been few studies to explore the sensitivity of the measured pollen diversity to vegetation changes and the relationship between pollen diversity and plant diversity. This paper presents results of a study to assess the relationship between pollen diversity and relative abundance of pollen from different altitudinal vegetation belts (subandean forest, Andean forest, subparamo and grassparamo) in three records from the tropical Andes in Colombia. The results indicated that plant diversity in the vegetation declined with altitude and pollen diversity is positively correlated to the abundance of pollen from lower altitude vegetation belts and negatively correlated to that from the grassparamo. These results, therefore, suggest that pollen diversity coarsely reflects the diversity of the surrounding vegetation. Using this interpretation, we were able to predict changes in plant diversity over the past 430000 years in the Colombian Andes. Results indicated that under warmer climatic conditions, more species-diverse vegetation of low elevation moved upslope to contribute more pollen diversity to the study sites, and under colder conditions, species-poor grassparamo moved downslope and observed pollen diversity was lower. This study concludes that fossil pollen diversity may provide an important proxy to reconstruct the temporal changes in plant diversity.

  14. Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kicklighter, D W; Melillo, J M; Lu, X; Cai, Y; Paltsev, S; Sokolov, A P; Reilly, J M; Zhuang, Q; Parfenova, E I; Tchebakova, N M

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region’s landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies. (paper)

  15. Shifts in ecosystem services in deprived urban areas : Understanding people’s responses and consequences for well-being

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derkzen, Marthe L.; Nagendra, Harini; Van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.; Purushotham, Anusha; Verburg, Peter H.

    2017-01-01

    Urban commons are under pressure. City development has led to the encroachment and ecological degradation of urban open space. Although there is growing insight that urban ecosystems need to be protected, there is hardly any attention for the consequences (of both pressures and protection efforts)

  16. Cross-site comparisons of concentration-discharge relationships reveal climate-driven chemostatic set points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsey, S.; Kirchner, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow solute concentrations often vary predictably with flows, providing insight into processes controlling solute generation and export. Previous work by the authors showed that log-transformed concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments had relatively low slopes, implying that these watersheds behaved almost like chemostats. That is, their rates of solute production and/or mobilization were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 sq. km in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings.Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described above. However, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations among these catchments are negatively correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. Thus, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. We present examples illustrating short-term and long-term controls on water quality consistent with variations in weather and climate, and discuss their implications.

  17. Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrakis, Roy; van Leeuwen, Willem J.D.; Villarreal, Miguel; Tashjian, Paul; Dello Russo, Regina; Scott, Christopher A.

    2017-01-01

    Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

  18. Stream ecosystem integrity is impaired by logging and shifting agriculture in a global megadiversity center (Sarawak, Borneo)

    OpenAIRE

    Jinggut, T.; Yule, C.M.; Boyero, Luz

    2012-01-01

    In common with most of Borneo, the Bakun region of Sarawak is currently subject to heavy deforestation mainly due to logging and, to a lesser extent, traditional slash-and-burn farming practices. This has the potential to affect stream ecosystems, which are integrators of environmental change in the surrounding terrestrial landscape. This study evaluated the effects of both types of deforestation by using functional and structural indicators (leaf litter decomposition rates and associated det...

  19. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kong, X.; He, Q.; Yang, B.; He, W.; Xu, F.; Janssen, A.B.G.; Kuiper, J.J.; Van Gerven, L.P.A.; Qin, N.; Jiang, Y.; Liu, W.; Yang, C.; Bai, Z.; Zhang, M.; Kong, F.; Janse, J.H.; Mooij, W.M.

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such ‘regime shifts’ can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and

  20. Theropod fauna from southern Australia indicates high polar diversity and climate-driven dinosaur provinciality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Roger B J; Rich, Thomas H; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

    2012-01-01

    'Gondwanan' fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels.

  1. Theropod Fauna from Southern Australia Indicates High Polar Diversity and Climate-Driven Dinosaur Provinciality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Roger B. J.; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

    2012-01-01

    hallmark ‘Gondwanan’ fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels. PMID:22615916

  2. Stream ecosystem integrity is impaired by logging and shifting agriculture in a global megadiversity center (Sarawak, Borneo).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jinggut, Tajang; Yule, Catherine M; Boyero, Luz

    2012-10-15

    In common with most of Borneo, the Bakun region of Sarawak is currently subject to heavy deforestation mainly due to logging and, to a lesser extent, traditional slash-and-burn farming practices. This has the potential to affect stream ecosystems, which are integrators of environmental change in the surrounding terrestrial landscape. This study evaluated the effects of both types of deforestation by using functional and structural indicators (leaf litter decomposition rates and associated detritivores or 'shredders', respectively) to compare a fundamental ecosystem process, leaf litter decomposition, within logged, farmed and pristine streams. Slash-and-burn agricultural practices increased the overall rate of decomposition despite a decrease in shredder species richness (but not shredder abundance) due to increased microbial decomposition. In contrast, decomposition by microbes and invertebrates was slowed down in the logged streams, where shredders were less abundant and less species rich. This study suggests that shredder communities are less affected by traditional agricultural farming practices, while modern mechanized deforestation has an adverse effect on both shredder communities and leaf breakdown. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

  4. Vulnerabilities of ecosystems across U.S. National Parks to biome shifts, wildfire changes, and invasive species due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, P.; Eigenbrod, F.; Early, R.; Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Williams, J. W.

    2016-12-01

    U.S. national parks conserve globally unique biodiversity. Yet, historical impacts of climate change and future vulnerabilities threaten species and ecosystems across this system of protected areas. Spatial analyses of historical climate and downscaled future climate projections show climate trends across the system. Spatial analyses of vegetation and wildfire (using a dynamic global vegetation model), habitat fragmentation (using remote sensing-derived land cover), and invasive species introduction and establishment show patterns of future vulnerability across the 50 U.S. states and 412 U.S. national parks. Results reveal high historical and projected temperature increases and precipitation changes, projected increases of wildfire across western U.S. national parks, high vulnerability to biome shifts and habitat fragmentation of up to one-third of National Park System area, and high vulnerability to invasive species of one-ninth of National Park System area. Ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Range, desert Southwest, and Laurentian Great Lakes are highly vulnerable to upslope and poleward shifts of the North America sequence of biomes: temperate shrubland - temperate broadleaf forest - temperate mixed forest - temperate conifer forest - subalpine and boreal forest - alpine and tundra. These areas include Grand Canyon, Mount Rainier, and Yosemite National Parks. The southwestern U.S., including Grand Canyon and Sequoia National Parks, is vulnerable to increases in wildfire. The eastern and midwestern U.S., including Great Smokey Mountains and Voyageurs National Parks, are highly vulnerable to invasive species. These results identify vulnerable areas and potential refugia to help prioritize areas for future natural resource management actions and biodiversity conservation in U.S. national parks.

  5. Influence of Climate-induced Vegetation Shifts on Future Land Use and Associated Land Carbon Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; PArfenova, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Land ecosystems will be under a variety of pressures in the 21st century that will affect both their structure and function. Climate change and land-use change are likely to be the major pressures. Climate change will lead to changes in disturbance regimes such as fire and changes in the distribution of plant and animal species. Land-use changes, driven by population growth, resource consumption and a broad set of economic considerations, will interact with climate-driven changes to reshape the earth's landscape. Northern Eurasia is a region where these changes could be dramatic. Here we present results of an integrated assessment analysis for the region that examines the consequences of concurrent pressures on land ecosystems associated with climate and land-use changes. Preliminary results indicate that climate-induced vegetation shifts allow a larger increase in area (an additional 55-60%) used for food crop production in northern Eurasia by the middle of the 21st century than is projected when vegetation shifts are not considered. In addition, the area of pastures in the region increases by 15-17% and the area of managed forests increases by 6-215% with vegetation shifts whereas these areas decrease by 3-5% and 51-68%, respectively, over this same time period when no vegetation shifts are considered. Consideration of climate-induced vegetation shifts triples the estimated loss of terrestrial carbon under a no policy scenario and causes the region to become a carbon source rather than a carbon sink under a climate policy scenario. Thus, consideration of vegetation shifts should be included in future assessments of environmental change on terrestrial carbon budgets.

  6. Ecosystem Alterations and Species Range Shifts: An Atlantic-Mediterranean Cephalaspidean Gastropod in an Inland Egyptian Lake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Cruz-Rivera

    Full Text Available The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt, a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny. Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown.

  7. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  8. Influence of Climate-induced Vegetation Shifts on Future Land Use and Associated Land Carbon Fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; Parfenova, E. I.; Sokolov, A. P.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.

    2012-04-01

    Land ecosystems in northern Eurasia will be under a variety of pressures in the 21st century that will affect both their structure and function. Climate change and land-use change are likely to be the major pressures. Climate change will lead to changes in disturbance regimes such as fire and changes in the distribution of plant and animal species. Land-use changes, driven by population growth, resource consumption and a broad set of economic considerations, will interact with climate-driven changes to reshape the earth's landscape. Here we present results of an integrated assessment analysis for the region that examines the consequences of concurrent pressures on land ecosystems associated with climate and land-use changes. Preliminary results indicate that climate-induced vegetation shifts allow more areas in northern Eurasia to be used for food crop production (an additional 23%) and pastures (an additional 38%), but limits the additional area to be used as managed forests (38% less) by the end of the 21st century than is projected when vegetation shifts are not considered and no climate policy is implemented. In contrast, under a climate policy, climate-induced vegetation shifts had little influence on food production, but allow more area to be used for cellulosic biofuel production (an additional 23%), and less additional area to be used for pasture (50% less) and managed forests (28% less) over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become a carbon source over the 21st century whereas the region is projected to be a carbon sink if no vegetation shifts are assumed to occur. Thus, consideration of vegetation shifts should be included in future assessments of environmental change on terrestrial carbon budgets in this region.

  9. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V.; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-01-01

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. PMID:26336179

  10. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-09-07

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. © 2015 The Authors.

  11. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  12. A variable-instar climate-driven individual beetle-based phenology model for the invasive Asian longhorned beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Talbot Trotter, III; Melody A. Keena

    2016-01-01

    Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology...

  13. Earth-System Scales of Biodiversity Variability in Shallow Continental Margin Seafloor Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, S. E.; White, S. M.; Hill, T. M.; Kennett, J.

    2015-12-01

    High-resolution paleoceanographic sedimentary sequences allow for the description of ecosystem sensitivity to earth-system scales of climate and oceanographic change. Such archives from Santa Barbara Basin, California record the ecological consequences to seafloor ecosystems of climate-forced shifts in the California Current Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). Here we use core MV0508-20JPC dated to 735,000±5,000 years ago (Marine Isotope Stage 18) as a "floating window" of millennial-scale ecological variability. For this investigation, previously published archives of planktonic δ18O (Globigerina bulloides) record stadial and interstadial oscillations in surface ocean temperature. Core MV0508-20JPC is an intermittently laminated archive, strongly influenced by the California Current OMZ, with continuously preserved benthic foraminifera and discontinuously preserved micro-invertebrates, including ophiuroids, echinoderms, ostracods, gastropods, bivalves and scaphopods. Multivariate statistical approaches, such as ordinations and cluster analyses, describe climate-driven changes in both foraminiferal and micro-invertebrate assemblages. Statistical ordinations illustrate that the shallow continental margin seafloor underwent predictable phase-shifts in oxygenation and biodiversity across stadial and interstadial events. A narrow suite of severely hypoxic taxa characterized foraminiferal communities from laminated intervals, including Bolivina tumida, Globobulimina spp., and Nonionella stella. Foraminiferal communities from bioturbated intervals are diverse and >60% similar to each other, and they are associated with echinoderm, ostracod and mollusc fossils. As with climate shifts in the latest Quaternary, there is a sensitive benthic ecosystem response in mid-Pleistocene continental margins to climatically related changes in OMZ strength.

  14. Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moellmann, C; Diekmann, Rabea; Muller-Karulis, B

    2009-01-01

    Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure...... the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto...... to atmospherically induced environmental change by reducing the anthropogenic impact....

  15. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep; Tian, Feng; Schurgers, Guy; Verger, Aleixandre; Mertz, Ole; Palmer, John R B; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-03-06

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody vegetation. There is thus an incomplete understanding of how woody vegetation responds to socio-economic and environmental change. Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992-2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km 2 ) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km 2 ), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO 2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and carbon stocks. This nuanced picture of changes in woody cover challenges widely held views of a general and ongoing reduction of the woody vegetation in Africa.

  16. River piracy and drainage basin reorganization led by climate-driven glacier retreat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, Daniel H.; Clague, John J.; Best, James L.; Schoof, Christian; Willis, Michael J.; Copland, Luke; Roe, Gerard H.

    2017-04-01

    River piracy--the diversion of the headwaters of one stream into another one--can dramatically change the routing of water and sediment, with a profound effect on landscape evolution. Stream piracy has been investigated in glacial environments, but so far it has mainly been studied over Quaternary or longer timescales. Here we document how retreat of Kaskawulsh Glacier--one of Canada's largest glaciers--abruptly and radically altered the regional drainage pattern in spring 2016. We use a combination of hydrological measurements and drone-generated digital elevation models to show that in late May 2016, meltwater from the glacier was re-routed from discharge in a northward direction into the Bering Sea, to southward into the Pacific Ocean. Based on satellite image analysis and a signal-to-noise ratio as a metric of glacier retreat, we conclude that this instance of river piracy was due to post-industrial climate change. Rapid regional drainage reorganizations of this type can have profound downstream impacts on ecosystems, sediment and carbon budgets, and downstream communities that rely on a stable and sustained discharge. We suggest that the planforms of Slims and Kaskawulsh rivers will adjust in response to altered flows, and the future Kaskawulsh watershed will extend into the now-abandoned headwaters of Slims River and eventually capture the Kluane Lake drainage.

  17. Climate-change driven range shifts of anchovy biomass projected by bio-physical coupling individual based model in the marginal seas of East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sukgeun; Pang, Ig-Chan; Lee, Joon-ho; Lee, Kyunghwan

    2016-12-01

    Recent studies in the western North Pacific reported a declining standing stock biomass of anchovy ( Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and a climate-driven southward shift of anchovy catch in Korean waters. We investigated the effects of a warming ocean on the latitudinal shift of anchovy catch by developing and applying individual-based models (IBMs) based on a regional ocean circulation model and an IPCC climate change scenario. Despite the greater uncertainty, our two IBMs projected that, by the 2030s, the strengthened Tsushima warm current in the Korea Strait and the East Sea, driven by global warming, and the subsequent confinement of the relatively cold water masses within the Yellow Sea will decrease larval anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea, but will increase it in the Korea Strait and the East Sea. The decreasing trend of anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea was reproduced by our models, but further validation and enhancement of the models is required together with extended ichthyoplankton surveys to understand and reliably project range shifts of anchovy and the impacts such range shifts will have on the marine ecosystems and fisheries in the region.

  18. Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia

  19. Climate-driven diversity change in annual grasslands: Drought plus deluge does not equal normal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Susan P; LaForgia, Marina L; Latimer, Andrew M

    2018-04-01

    Climate forecasts agree that increased variability and extremes will tend to reduce the availability of water in many terrestrial ecosystems. Increasingly severe droughts may be exacerbated both by warmer temperatures and by the relative unavailability of water that arrives in more sporadic and intense rainfall events. Using long-term data and an experimental water manipulation, we examined the resilience of a heterogeneous annual grassland community to a prolonged series of dry winters that led to a decline in plant species richness (2000-2014), followed by a near-record wet winter (2016-2017), a climatic sequence that broadly resembles the predicted future in its high variability. In our 80, 5-m 2 observational plots, species richness did not recover in response to the wet winter, and the positive relationship of richness to annual winter rainfall thus showed a significant weakening trend over the 18-year time period. In experiments on 100, 1-m 2 plots, wintertime water supplementation increased and drought shelters decreased the seedling survival and final individual biomass of native annual forbs, the main functional group contributing to the observed long-term decline in richness. Water supplementation also increased the total cover of native annual forbs, but only increased richness within nested subplots to which seeds were also added. We conclude that prolonged dry winters, by increasing seedling mortality and reducing growth of native forbs, may have diminished the seedbank and thus the recovery potential of diversity in this community. However, the wet winter and the watering treatment did cause recovery of the community mean values of a key functional trait (specific leaf area, an indicator of drought intolerance), suggesting that some aggregate community properties may be stabilized by functional redundancy among species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Jacobs

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality and space (geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios.

  1. The influence of climate regime shifts on the marine environment and ecosystems in the East Asian Marginal Seas and their mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kun Jung, Hae; Rahman, SM Mustafizur; Kang, Chang-Keun; Park, Se-Young; Heon Lee, Sang; Je Park, Hyun; Kim, Hyun-Woo; Il Lee, Chung

    2017-09-01

    Step changes to seawater temperature (SWT) in the East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) are associated with three recent climate regime shifts (CRS) occurring in the mid-1970s, late 1980s, and late 1990s, but the responses of the ocean conditions and marine ecosystems had regional differences. A step change in SWT in the East China Sea (ECS) was detected after the CRS of the 1970s as were step changes in the North Pacific Index (NPI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI), and East Asian Winter Monsoon Index (EAWMI). SWT in the ECS decreased with decreasing warm water volume transport into the EAMS and a strong monsoon, but step changes in SWT in other regions were not detected as clearly. After the CRS of the 1980s, SWT in all EAMS increased rapidly with step changes detected in all five climate indices examined. These changes were associated with a weak winter monsoon, increasing surface air temperature (SAT), and increasing warm water volume transport into the EAMS. However, after the CRS of the 1990s, a decrease in SWT around the EAMS was detected in the northern part of East China Sea (NECS), and the ECS with step changes also in the EAWMI and the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). In contrast, SWT in the East Sea/Sea of Japan (EJS) and the Yellow Sea (YS) continuously increased during this time. Long-term changes in zooplankton biomass were affected by regional differences in the responses of atmospheric and oceanic variability to CRSs. Specifically, long-term changes in the timing of peaks in zooplankton abundances exhibited differences. During warm periods (e.g. after the 1980s CRS) in the EJS, the amount of zooplankton biomass in October increased, while in February it decreased. On the contrary, in the YS and the NECS, the peaks of October and June in zooplankton biomass occurred during cold periods (after the 1970s and 1990s CRS). Major fisheries resources also responded to the three CRSs, although warm and cold water species responded differently to changes

  2. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G W

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the

  3. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol, Janet; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G.W.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the

  4. Agriculture erases climate-driven β-diversity in Neotropical bird communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karp, Daniel S; Frishkoff, Luke O; Echeverri, Alejandra; Zook, Jim; Juárez, Pedro; Chan, Kai M A

    2018-01-01

    Earth is experiencing multiple global changes that will, together, determine the fate of many species. Yet, how biological communities respond to concurrent stressors at local-to-regional scales remains largely unknown. In particular, understanding how local habitat conversion interacts with regional climate change to shape patterns in β-diversity-differences among sites in their species compositions-is critical to forecast communities in the Anthropocene. Here, we study patterns in bird β-diversity across land-use and precipitation gradients in Costa Rica. We mapped forest cover, modeled regional precipitation, and collected data on bird community composition, vegetation structure, and tree diversity across 120 sites on 20 farms to answer three questions. First, do bird communities respond more strongly to changes in land use or climate in northwest Costa Rica? Second, does habitat conversion eliminate β-diversity across climate gradients? Third, does regional climate control how communities respond to habitat conversion and, if so, how? After correcting for imperfect detection, we found that local land-use determined community shifts along the climate gradient. In forests, bird communities were distinct between sites that differed in vegetation structure or precipitation. In agriculture, however, vegetation structure was more uniform, contributing to 7%-11% less bird turnover than in forests. In addition, bird responses to agriculture and climate were linked: agricultural communities across the precipitation gradient shared more species with dry than wet forest communities. These findings suggest that habitat conversion and anticipated climate drying will act together to exacerbate biotic homogenization. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Blaustein, Andrew R; Johnson, Pieter T J; Paull, Sara H; Young, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions

  6. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

  7. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  8. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  9. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David D Gustine

    Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  10. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

  11. Linking ecosystem scale vegetation change to shifts in carbon and water cycling: the consequences of widespread piñon mortality in the Southwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvak, Marcy Ellen [University of New Mexico

    2012-10-01

    The southwestern United States experienced an extended drought from 1999-2002 which led to widespread coniferous tree mortality. Piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands, which occupy 24 million ha throughout the Southwest, were extremely vulnerable to this drought. An abrupt die-off of 40 to 95% of piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and 2-25% of juniper (Juniperus monosperma) across 1.5 million ha triggered rapid and extensive changes in the structure of PJ woodlands with potentially large, yet unknown, consequences for ecosystem services and feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate system. Given the spatial extent of PJ woodlands (3rd largest biome in the US) and climatic predictions of increased frequency and intensity of drought in the region, it is crucial to understand the consequences of these disturbances on regional carbon and energy dynamics, biogeochemical processes and atmospheric CO2. The overall objective of our research was to quantify what impact widespread mortality of piñon trees has for carbon and water cycling in PJ woodlands. Our specific objectives for this proposal were: 1) Quantify the carbon, water and energy exchange trajectory after mortality in PJ woodlands; 2) Determine the mechanisms controlling the response and recovery of ecosystem production and respiration processes following large-scale piñon mortality; 3) Use the relationships we measure between ecosystem structure and function PJ woodlands recover from mortality to scale the results of our study up to the regional scale.

  12. Carbon-cycle implications of asymmetry in response of semi-arid ecosystem phenology and productivity to rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Benjamin; Haverd, Vanessa; Ahlström, Anders; Canadell, Josep

    2017-04-01

    Semi-arid savannahs and shrublands of the tropics and subtropics play a key role in the inter-annual variability of the global carbon cycle and are emerging as an important player - comparable with tropical forests - in terms of their contribution to the ongoing sink trend of the carbon exchange between the global land surface and atmosphere. Both the variability and carbon balance trend of the savannah-shrubland biome are characterised by shifting phenology, mediated by changes in the seasonality and relative contributions to ecosystem productivity of woody vegetation elements and grasses. Shifts in water availability associated with the impacts of global circulation systems on the distribution and amount of rainfall are a key driver of vegetation response in these ecosystems, which tolerate drought, but spring to life, becoming highly productive, during episodes of ample water supply. This "boom or bust" behaviour with respect to water availability may be expected to translate into an asymmetric response to rainfall change, positive anomalies in rainfall tending to lead to larger increases in productivity compared with the corresponding decrease in productivity resulting from a negative anomaly of comparable size. As rainfall distributions over time themselves exhibit asymmetry, an 'intrinsic' (ecosystem response-driven) and 'extrinsic' (climate or weather forcing-driven) component of asymmetry may be distinguished. We investigated the prevalence of asymmetry in forcing and response of ecosystem productivity to rainfall variability globally and for the illustrative case of Australia, which emerges as a global 'hot spot' for rainfall-driven variability in ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) and associated net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Employing two climate-driven ecosystem models, informed by multiple observation types (land-atmosphere fluxes, biomass, streamflow and remotely-sensed vegetation cover), we show that the inland region of Australia, dominated

  13. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems. Results after first growing season and mid term status report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3oC increase in temperature with morevigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought...

  14. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liebergesell, M.; Reu, B.; Stahl, U.; Freiberg, M.; Welk, E.; Kattge, J.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Peñuelas, J.; Wirth, C.

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to

  15. Shifts in Abundance and Diversity of Soil Ammonia-Oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea Associated with Land Restoration in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Chen

    Full Text Available The Grain to Green Project (GGP is an unprecedented land restoration action in China. The project converted large areas (ca 10 million ha of steep-sloped/degraded farmland and barren land into forest and grassland resulting in ecological benefits such as a reduction in severe soil erosion. It may also affect soil microorganisms involved in ammonia oxidization, which is a key step in the global nitrogen cycle. The methods for restoration that are typically adopted in semi-arid regions include abandoning farmland and growing drought tolerant grass (Lolium perenne L. or shrubs (Caragana korshinskii Kom.. In the present study, the effects of these methods on the abundance and diversity of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB and ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA were evaluated via quantitative real-time PCR, terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism and clone library analysis of amoA genes. Comparisons were made between soil samples from three restored lands and the adjacent farmland in Inner Mongolia. Both the abundance and community composition of AOB were significantly different between the restored lands and the adjacent control. Significantly lower nitrification activity was observed for the restored land. Clone library analysis revealed that all AOB amoA gene sequences were affiliated with Nitrosospira. Abundance of the populations that were associated with Nitrosospira sp. Nv6 which had possibly adapted to high concentrations of inorganic nitrogen, decreased on the restored land. Only a slight difference in the AOB communities was observed between the restored land with and without the shrub (Caragana korshinskii Kom.. A minor effect of land restoration on AOA was observed. In summary, land restoration negatively affected the abundance of AOB and soil nitrification activities, suggesting the potential role of GGP in the leaching of nitrates, and in the emission of N2O in related terrestrial ecosystems.

  16. How will coral reef fish communities respond to climate-driven disturbances? Insight from landscape-scale perturbations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Thomas C; Brooks, Andrew J; Holbrook, Sally J; Schmitt, Russell J; Washburn, Libe; Bernardi, Giacomo

    2014-09-01

    Global climate change is rapidly altering disturbance regimes in many ecosystems including coral reefs, yet the long-term impacts of these changes on ecosystem structure and function are difficult to predict. A major ecosystem service provided by coral reefs is the provisioning of physical habitat for other organisms, and consequently, many of the effects of climate change on coral reefs will be mediated by their impacts on habitat structure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand the independent and combined effects of coral mortality and loss of physical habitat on reef-associated biota. Here, we use a unique series of events affecting the coral reefs around the Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia to differentiate between the impacts of coral mortality and the degradation of physical habitat on the structure of reef fish communities. We found that, by removing large amounts of physical habitat, a tropical cyclone had larger impacts on reef fish communities than an outbreak of coral-eating sea stars that caused widespread coral mortality but left the physical structure intact. In addition, the impacts of declining structural complexity on reef fish assemblages accelerated as structure became increasingly rare. Structure provided by dead coral colonies can take up to decades to erode following coral mortality, and, consequently, our results suggest that predictions based on short-term studies are likely to grossly underestimate the long-term impacts of coral decline on reef fish communities.

  17. Temporal shifts in floristic and avian diversity in Mediterranean pine forest ecosystems under different fire pressure: The island of Zakynthos as a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos Poirazidis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We evaluated how fire impacts the ecological coherence of Aleppo pine forests and their biodiversity over a 40-year period. The study area forms part of an insular ecosystem of Zakynthos Island (Zante in western Greece, which forms part of the Ionian Islands. Post-fire effects were studied for both plant and bird diversity at 20 sampling plots, using stratified random sampling, during the summer of 2012. The plots were selected based on the frequency of burning since the 1970s. Sites were categorized as: 1 no burning for >40 years, 2 burnt once in the 1970s, 3 burnt twice, first in the 1970s and again in 2000–2010, 4 burnt three times, first in the 1970s, and twice more in 2000–2010, and 5 burnt four times, first in the1970s, twice more in 2000–2010, and again in 2011. A total of 79 plant species and 26 bird species were recorded at the studied sites. One-way ANOVA analysis showed that fire intensity has a significant impact on alpha floristic diversity. Average plant species richness at sites that burned in 2011 was significantly higher than in those that burned in the 1970s. Detected differences in bird species richness were not significant; however, more species were documented in the forested habitats (unburnt for >40 years, and burnt in the 1970s. The highest Jaccard similarity index was observed between the sites that had not burned for more than 40 years and the sites that burned in the 1970s. The lowest floristic similarity to non-burnt sites was observed between the recently burnt sites in 2011 and the sites that burned in the 1970s. The lowest bird similarity was detected between recently burnt sites in 2011 and sites that had not burned for more than 40 years. DCA ordination showed the presence of a clear fire gradient, from intensively burnt open sites to non-burnt forest sites. We suggest that fire is essential to maintain biodiversity in Aleppo pine forests, but only at intermediate frequency.

  18. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems provides data and information on the extent and classification of ecosystems circa 2000, including coastal,...

  19. Sap-feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate-driven patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V; Stekolshchikov, Andrey V; Söderman, Guy; Labina, Eugenia S; Zverev, Vitali; Zvereva, Elena L

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap-feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant-herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap-feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750-1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008-2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap-feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap-feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome-shaped relationships between the loads of sap-feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap-feeders will increase by 0-45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65-210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap-feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap-feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant-plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems. © 2014

  20. Satellite-based model detection of recent climate-driven changes in northern high-latitude vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke; Kimball, John S.; Hogg, E. H.; Zhao, Maosheng; Oechel, Walter C.; Cassano, John J.; Running, Steven W.

    2008-09-01

    We applied a satellite remote sensing based production efficiency model (PEM) using an integrated AVHRR and MODIS FPAR/LAI time series with a regionally corrected NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily surface meteorology and NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget shortwave solar radiation inputs to assess annual terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska from 1983 to 2005. Our results show that low temperature constraints on Boreal-Arctic NPP are decreasing by 0.43% per year (P vegetation moisture constraints of 0.49% per year (P = 0.04) are offsetting the potential benefits of longer growing seasons and contributing to recent disturbances in NPP. The PEM simulations of NPP seasonality, annual anomalies and trends are similar to stand inventory network measurements of boreal aspen stem growth (r = 0.56; P = 0.007) and atmospheric CO2 measurement based estimates of the timing of growing season onset (r = 0.78; P forest region after the late-1990s. However, seasonal low temperatures are still a dominant limitation on regional NPP. Despite recent drought events, mean annual NPP for the pan-Arctic region showed a positive growth trend of 0.34% per year (20.27 TgC/a; P = 0.002) from 1983 to 2005. Drought induced NPP decreases may become more frequent and widespread as regional ecosystems adjust to a warmer, drier atmosphere, though the occurrence and severity of drought events will depend on future patterns of plant-available moisture.

  1. Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial energy and water fluxes: a site-level to global-scale analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

    2014-06-01

    We used a land surface model constrained using data from flux tower sites, to analyze the biases in ecosystem energy and water fluxes arising due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. Following site-level model calibration encompassing major vegetation types from the tropics to the northern high-latitudes, we repeated the site and global simulations using two reanalysis datasets: the NCEP/NCAR and the CRUNCEP. In comparison with the model simulations using observed meteorology from sites, the reanalysis-driven simulations produced several systematic biases in net radiation (Rn ), latent heat (LE), and sensible heat (H) fluxes. These include: (i) persistently positive tropical/subtropical biases in Rn using the NCEP/NCAR, and gradually transitioning to negative Rn biases in the higher latitudes; (ii) large positive H biases in the tropics/subtropics using the NCEP/NCAR; (iii) negative LE biases using the NCEP/NCAR above 40°N; (iv) high tropical LE using the CRUNCEP in comparison with observationally derived global estimates; and (v) flux-partitioning biases from canopy and ground components. Across vegetation types, we investigated the role of the meteorological drivers (shortwave and longwave radiation, atmospheric humidity, temperature, precipitation) and their seasonal biases in controlling these reanalysis-driven uncertainties. At the global scale, our site-level analysis explains several model-data differences in the LE and H fluxes when compared with observationally derived global estimates of these fluxes. Using our results, we discuss the implications of site-level model calibration on subsequent regional/global applications to study energy and hydrological processes. The flux-partitioning biases presented in this study have potential implications on the couplings among terrestrial carbon, energy, and water fluxes, and for the calibration of land-atmosphere parameterizations that are dependent on LE/H partitioning. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

    2015-01-01

    Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing

  3. Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem goods and services are the many life-sustaining benefits we receive from nature and contribute to environmental and human health and well-being. Ecosystem-focused research will develop methods to measure ecosystem goods and services.

  4. Projections of climate-driven changes in tuna vertical habitat based on species-specific differences in blood oxygen affinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mislan, K A S; Deutsch, Curtis A; Brill, Richard W; Dunne, John P; Sarmiento, Jorge L

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen concentrations are hypothesized to decrease in many areas of the ocean as a result of anthropogenically driven climate change, resulting in habitat compression for pelagic animals. The oxygen partial pressure, pO 2 , at which blood is 50% saturated (P 50 ) is a measure of blood oxygen affinity and a gauge of the tolerance of animals for low ambient oxygen. Tuna species display a wide range of blood oxygen affinities (i.e., P 50 values) and therefore may be differentially impacted by habitat compression as they make extensive vertical movements to forage on subdaily time scales. To project the effects of end-of-the-century climate change on tuna habitat, we calculate tuna P 50 depths (i.e., the vertical position in the water column at which ambient pO 2 is equal to species-specific blood P 50 values) from 21st century Earth System Model (ESM) projections included in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, we project P 50 depths to shoal, indicating likely habitat compression for tuna species due to climate change. Tunas that will be most impacted by shoaling are Pacific and southern bluefin tunas-habitat compression is projected for the entire geographic range of Pacific bluefin tuna and for the spawning region of southern bluefin tuna. Vertical shifts in P 50 depths will potentially influence resource partitioning among Pacific bluefin, bigeye, yellowfin, and skipjack tunas in the northern subtropical and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. By establishing linkages between tuna physiology and environmental conditions, we provide a mechanistic basis to project the effects of anthropogenic climate change on tuna habitats. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  5. Climate-driven diversification and Pleistocene refugia in Philippine birds: evidence from phylogeographic structure and paleoenvironmental niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosner, Peter A; Sánchez-González, Luis A; Peterson, A Townsend; Moyle, Robert G

    2014-09-01

    Avian diversification in oceanic archipelagos is largely attributed to isolation across marine barriers. During glacial maxima, lowered sea levels resulted in repeated land connections between islands joined by shallow seas. Consequently, such islands are not expected to show endemism. However, if climate fluctuations simultaneously caused shifts in suitable environmental conditions, limiting populations to refugia, then occurrence on and dispersal across periodic land bridges are not tenable. To assess the degree to which paleoclimate barriers, rather than marine barriers, drove avian diversification in the Philippine Archipelago, we produced ecological niche models for current-day, glacial maxima, and interglacial climate scenarios to infer potential Pleistocene distributions and paleoclimate barriers. We then tested marine and paleoclimate barriers for correspondence to geographic patterns of population divergence, inferred from DNA sequences from eight codistributed bird species. In all species, deep-water channels corresponded to zones of genetic differentiation, but six species exhibited deeper divergence associated with a periodic land bridge in the southern Philippines. Ecological niche models for these species identified a common paleoclimate barrier that coincided with deep genetic structure among populations. Although dry land connections joined southern Philippine islands during low sea level stands, unfavorable environmental conditions limited populations within landmasses, resulting in long-term isolation and genetic differentiation. These results highlight the complex nature of diversification in archipelagos: marine barriers, changes in connectivity due to sea level change, and climate-induced refugia acted in concert to produce great species diversity and endemism in the Philippines. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  6. Shifting Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, Jenni

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…

  7. Climate-driven increase of natural wetland methane emissions offset by human-induced wetland reduction in China over the past three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Jiang, Hong; Fang, Xiuqin; Chen, Huai; Niu, Zhichun; Gong, Peng; Lin, Guanghui; Wang, Meng; Yang, Yanzheng; Chang, Jie; Ge, Ying; Xiang, Wenhua; Deng, Xiangwen; He, Jin-Sheng

    2016-01-01

    Both anthropogenic activities and climate change can affect the biogeochemical processes of natural wetland methanogenesis. Quantifying possible impacts of changing climate and wetland area on wetland methane (CH4) emissions in China is important for improving our knowledge on CH4 budgets locally and globally. However, their respective and combined effects are uncertain. We incorporated changes in wetland area derived from remote sensing into a dynamic CH4 model to quantify the human and climate change induced contributions to natural wetland CH4 emissions in China over the past three decades. Here we found that human-induced wetland loss contributed 34.3% to the CH4 emissions reduction (0.92 TgCH4), and climate change contributed 20.4% to the CH4 emissions increase (0.31 TgCH4), suggesting that decreasing CH4 emissions due to human-induced wetland reductions has offset the increasing climate-driven CH4 emissions. With climate change only, temperature was a dominant controlling factor for wetland CH4 emissions in the northeast (high latitude) and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (high altitude) regions, whereas precipitation had a considerable influence in relative arid north China. The inevitable uncertainties caused by the asynchronous for different regions or periods due to inter-annual or seasonal variations among remote sensing images should be considered in the wetland CH4 emissions estimation.

  8. Bottomland Hardwood Ecosystem Management Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Stanturf; Calvin E. Meier

    1994-01-01

    Federal agency approaches to land management are undergoing a shift from parcel-specific concerns toward a more holistic, ecosystem management approach. Southern bottomland hardwood ecosystems provide important environmental services and commodity goods (Wharton et al. 1982), yet much of our knowledge of these systems comes from anecdotal information. The Bottomland...

  9. Fire and ecosystem change in the Arctic across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Elizabeth H.; Pedentchouk, Nikolai; Schouten, Stefan; Pagani, Mark; Freeman, Katherine H.

    2017-06-01

    Fire has been an important component of ecosystems on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Fire can affect vegetation distribution, the carbon cycle, and climate. The relationship between climate and fire is complex, in large part because of a key role of vegetation type. Here, we evaluate regional scale fire-climate relationships during a past global warming event, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), in order to understand how vegetation influenced the links between climate and fire occurrence in the Arctic region. To document concurrent changes in climate, vegetation, and fire occurrence, we evaluated biomarkers, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), terpenoids, and alkanes, from the PETM interval at a marine depositional site (IODP site 302, the Lomonosov Ridge) in the Arctic Ocean. Biomarker, fossil, and isotope evidence from site 302 indicates that terrestrial vegetation changed during the PETM. The abundance of the C29n-alkanes, pollen, and the ratio of leaf-wax n-alkanes relative to diterpenoids all indicate that proportional contributions from angiosperm vegetation increased relative to that from gymnosperms. These changes accompanied increased moisture transport to the Arctic and higher temperatures, as recorded by previously published proxy records. We find that PAH abundances were elevated relative to total plant biomarkers throughout the PETM, and suggest that fire occurrence increased relative to plant productivity. The fact that fire frequency or prevalence may have increased during wetter Arctic conditions suggests that changes in fire occurrence were not a simple function of aridity, as is commonly conceived. Instead, we suggest that the climate-driven ecological shift to angiosperm-dominated vegetation was what led to increased fire occurrence. Potential increases in terrestrial plant biomass that arose from warm, wet, and high CO2 conditions were possibly attenuated by biomass burning associated with compositional changes

  10. Resilience and Vulnerability of Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems: Key Mechanisms and Habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juday, G. P.; Trouillier, M.; Morimoto, M.

    2016-12-01

    The northwestern North American boreal forest experienced a rapid regime shift to elevated temperatures in the mid 1970s, with profound consequences for forests. The common tree species aspen (Asp), Alaska birch (Abir), and white (Wspr) and black spruce display both vulnerability and resilience. Tree growth of all species is well modeled by empirical temperature indices, with both positive and negative temperature relationships. Extreme tree stress and mortality have been detected in radial growth and photo monitoring at Bonanza Creek LTER and across interior boreal Alaska. However, trees on formerly marginally cool sites and regions are resilient or vigorous and accelerating in growth. Wspr experiences an exponential decline in photosynthesis between 21 and 28 deg. C, and such temperatures occur more frequently in the interior boreal region. Abir displays extensive evidence of top dieback from hydraulic conductivity failure, and is experiencing extensive defoliation from leaf miners, as did Asp. However, summer precipitation in interior Alaska has been at record levels since 2014, and unprecedented radial growth occurred in Wspr on the warmest and driest sites. The phenology of Wspr height elongation is effectively modeled by an empirically derived model of temperature and precipitation. The modeled date of cessation of growth occurs earlier by about 3 weeks over the past century, which nearly matches the advance of spring growth. A geographically coherent picture is emerging of systematic climate-driven change, overlain with exceptional events (insect outbreaks, droughts, heavy rains) in space, time, or type. One of the most vulnerable boreal forest habitats is old-growth (150+ yrs.) white spruce, which is a key component of biodiversity, providing important structures for birds, lichens, and mammals, and the most favorable opportunity for wood harvest. Resource management law and policy mandates to maintain ecosystems are mismatched with the unfolding reality.

  11. Applying ecosystem management to urban forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer

    2007-01-01

    During the 1990s, the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service shifted from commodity production management to ecosystem-based management (Overbay, 1992). Although definitions of ecosystem-based management vary by objectives, the principle had four primary elements: (1) maintaining viable populations of native species, (2) representing native ecosystems...

  12. Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

    2009-11-17

    Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

  13. Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deqin Fan

    Full Text Available The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years. In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1 from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate.

  14. Tough Shift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brewer, Robert S.; Verdezoto, Nervo; Holst, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    people to change their behavior at home. Leveraging prior research on encouraging reductions in residential energy use through game play, we introduce ShareBuddy: a casual mobile game intended to encourage players not only to reduce, but also to shift their electricity use. We conducted two field studies...... real-world resource use into a game....

  15. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  16. Alpine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.W. Rundel; C.I. Millar

    2016-01-01

    Alpine ecosystems are typically defined as those areas occurring above treeline, while recognizing that alpine ecosystems at a local scale may be found below this boundary for reasons including geology, geomorphology, and microclimate. The lower limit of the alpine ecosystems, the climatic treeline, varies with latitude across California, ranging from about 3500 m in...

  17. Reality check of socio-hydrological interactions in water quality and ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destouni, Georgia; Fischer, Ida; Prieto, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Socio-hydrological interactions in water management for improving water quality and ecosystem status include as key components both (i) the societal measures taken for mitigation and control, and (ii) the societal characterization and monitoring efforts made for choosing management targets and checking the effects of measures taken to reach the targets. This study investigates such monitoring, characterization and management efforts and effects over the first six-year management cycle of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The investigation uses Sweden and the WFD-regulated management of its stream and lake waters as a concrete quantification example, with focus on the nutrient and eutrophication conditions that determine the most prominent water quality and ecosystem problems in need of mitigation in the Swedish waters. The case results show a relatively small available monitoring base for determination of these nutrient and eutrophication conditions, even though they constitute key parts in the overall WFD-based approach to classification and management of ecosystem status. Specifically, actual nutrient monitoring exists in only around 1% (down to 0.2% for nutrient loads) of the Swedish stream and lake water bodies; modeling is used to fill the gaps for the remaining unmonitored fraction of classified and managed waters. The available data show that the hydro-climatically driven stream water discharge is a primary explanatory variable for the resulting societal classification of ecosystem status in Swedish waters; this may be due to the discharge magnitude being dominant in determining nutrient loading to these waters. At any rate, with such a hydro-climatically related, rather than human-pressure related, determinant of the societal ecosystem-status classification, the main human-driven causes and effects of eutrophication may not be appropriately identified, and the measures taken for mitigating these may not be well chosen. The available monitoring data

  18. Drained coastal peatlands: A potential nitrogen source to marine ecosystems under prolonged drought and heavy storm events-A microcosm experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongjun; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi; Flanagan, Neal

    2016-10-01

    Over the past several decades there has been a massive increase in coastal eutrophication, which is often caused by increased runoff input of nitrogen from landscape alterations. Peatlands, covering 3% of land area, have stored about 12-21% of global soil organic nitrogen (12-20Pg N) around rivers, lakes and coasts over millennia and are now often drained and farmed. Their huge nitrogen pools may be released by intensified climate driven hydrologic events-prolonged droughts followed by heavy storms-and later transported to marine ecosystems. In this study, we collected peat monoliths from drained, natural, and restored coastal peatlands in the Southeastern U.S., and conducted a microcosm experiment simulating coupled prolonged-drought and storm events to (1) test whether storms could trigger a pulse of nitrogen export from drought-stressed peatlands and (2) assess how differentially hydrologic managements through shifting plant communities affect nitrogen export by combining an experiment of nitrogen release from litter. During the drought phase, we observed a significant temporal variation in net nitrogen mineralization rate (NMR). NMR spiked in the third month and then decreased rapidly. This pattern indicates that drought duration significantly affects nitrogen mineralization in peat. NMR in the drained site reached up to 490±110kgha(-1)year(-1), about 5 times higher than in the restored site. After the 14-month drought phase, we simulated a heavy storm by bringing peat monoliths to saturation. In the discharge waters, concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen in the monoliths from the drained site (72.7±16.3mgL(-1)) was about ten times as high as from the restored site. Our results indicate that previously drained peatlands under prolonged drought are a potent source of nitrogen export. Moreover, drought-induced plant community shifts to herbaceous plants substantially raise nitrogen release with lasting effects by altering litter quality in peatlands

  19. Fluid Shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A. R.; Dulchavsky, S. A.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R. W.; Ebert, D. J.; Garcia, K. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Laurie, S. S.; Lee, S. M. C.; hide

    2017-01-01

    Introduction. NASA's Human Research Program is focused on addressing health risks associated with long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but now more than 50 percent of ISS astronauts have experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural findings such as optic disc edema, globe flattening and choroidal folds. These structural and functional changes are referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Development of VIIP symptoms may be related to elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) secondary to spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to determine if a relation exists with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as any VIIP-related effects of those shifts, are predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight status and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations, specifically posture changes and lower body negative pressure. Methods. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, and calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound); (3) vascular dimensions by ultrasound (jugular veins, cerebral and carotid arteries, vertebral arteries and veins, portal vein); (4) vascular dynamics by MRI (head/neck blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid

  20. Shifting Blame?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garofalo, Orsola; Rott, Christina

    2017-01-01

    either the decision maker or a spokesperson communicates the decided allocation to recipients, who then determine whether to punish either of them. We find that receivers punish both the decision maker and the spokesperson more often, and more heavily, for unfair allocations communicated...... by the spokesperson if there is room for shifting blame. The increased punishment results from the messenger’s style of delivery: spokespersons are more likely than decision makers to express emotional regret instead of rational need. Receivers seem to punish the former style of communication because they view...

  1. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  2. AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS,

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquatic ecosystems are a vital part of the urban water cycle (and of urban areas more broadly), and, if healthy, provide a range of goods and services valued by humans (Meyer 1997). For example, aquatic ecosystems (e.g., rivers, lakes, wetlands) provide potable water, food resou...

  3. Shifting Sugars and Shifting Paradigms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegal, Mark L.

    2015-01-01

    No organism lives in a constant environment. Based on classical studies in molecular biology, many have viewed microbes as following strict rules for shifting their metabolic activities when prevailing conditions change. For example, students learn that the bacterium Escherichia coli makes proteins for digesting lactose only when lactose is available and glucose, a better sugar, is not. However, recent studies, including three PLOS Biology papers examining sugar utilization in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, show that considerable heterogeneity in response to complex environments exists within and between populations. These results join similar recent results in other organisms that suggest that microbial populations anticipate predictable environmental changes and hedge their bets against unpredictable ones. The classical view therefore represents but one special case in a range of evolutionary adaptations to environmental changes that all organisms face. PMID:25688600

  4. Shifting sugars and shifting paradigms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark L Siegal

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available No organism lives in a constant environment. Based on classical studies in molecular biology, many have viewed microbes as following strict rules for shifting their metabolic activities when prevailing conditions change. For example, students learn that the bacterium Escherichia coli makes proteins for digesting lactose only when lactose is available and glucose, a better sugar, is not. However, recent studies, including three PLOS Biology papers examining sugar utilization in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, show that considerable heterogeneity in response to complex environments exists within and between populations. These results join similar recent results in other organisms that suggest that microbial populations anticipate predictable environmental changes and hedge their bets against unpredictable ones. The classical view therefore represents but one special case in a range of evolutionary adaptations to environmental changes that all organisms face.

  5. Integration of a Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato into Mountain Ecosystems, Following a Shift in the Altitudinal Limit of Distribution of Their Vector, Ixodes ricinus (Krkonoše Mountains, Czech Republic)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Danielová, V.; Daniel, M.; Schwarzová, L.; Materna, J.; Rudenko, Natalia; Golovchenko, Maryna; Holubová, J.; Grubhoffer, Libor; Kilian, P.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 3 (2010), s. 223-230 ISSN 1530-3667 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA310/06/1546 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60220518 Keywords : Borrelia burgdorferi genospecies * Climate * Ixodes ricinus tick * Mountain ecosystems * Tick-borne encephalitis virus Subject RIV: GJ - Animal Vermins ; Diseases, Veterinary Medicine Impact factor: 2.733, year: 2010

  6. Ecosystem thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Palacio, German Rau

    1998-01-01

    Ecology is no more a descriptive and self-sufficient science. Many viewpoints are needed simultaneously to give a full coverage of such complex systems: ecosystems. These viewpoints come from physics, chemistry, and nuclear physics, without a new far from equilibrium thermodynamics and without new mathematical tools such as catastrophe theory, fractal theory, cybernetics and network theory, the development of ecosystem science would never have reached the point of today. Some ideas are presented about the importance that concept such as energy, entropy, exergy information and none equilibrium have in the analysis of processes taking place in ecosystems

  7. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E; Fortini, Lucas B; Amidon, Fred A; Miller, Stephen E; Jacobi, James D; Price, Jonathan P; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  8. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  9. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  10. Forest operations for ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert B. Rummer; John Baumgras; Joe McNeel

    1997-01-01

    The evolution of modern forest resource management is focusing on ecologically sensitive forest operations. This shift in management strategies is producing a new set of functional requirements for forest operations. Systems to implement ecosystem management prescriptions may need to be economically viable over a wider range of piece sizes, for example. Increasing...

  11. Strategic ecosystems of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquez Calle German

    2002-01-01

    The author relates the ecosystems in Colombia, he makes a relationship between ecosystems and population, utility of the ecosystems, transformation of the ecosystems and poverty and he shows a methodology of identification of strategic ecosystems

  12. Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

    2017-05-02

    Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

  13. The dynamic regime concept for ecosystem management and restoration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mayer, A.; Rietkerk, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    Because the response of ecosystem patterns and processes to disturbance is rarely linear, the dynamic regime concept offers a more realistic construct than linear models for understanding ecosystems. Dynamic regimes, and shifts between them, have been reported for a diversity of ecosystem

  14. The Dynamic Regime Concept for Ecosystem Management and Restoration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mayer, A.L.; Rietkerk, M.

    2004-01-01

    Because the response of ecosystem patterns and processes to disturbance is rarely linear, the dynamic regime concept offers a more realistic construct than linear models for understanding ecosystems. Dynamic regimes, and shifts between them, have been reported for a diversity of ecosystem types (e.

  15. Adaptive management for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgé, Hannah E; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Pope, Kevin L

    2016-12-01

    Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with management designed to meet the demands of a growing human population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Shifting Cultivation : Promoting Innovative Policy and Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Researchers will take a pragmatic approach to dealing with the livelihood issues of the cultivators and the health of the ecosystem, and assess the effects of increasing population pressure and market forces. The idea is to share good policies and practices related to shifting cultivation and alternative options through ...

  17. Regime shifts, resilience and recovery of a cod stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Diekmann, Rabea; Möllmann, Christian

    2010-01-01

    In the North and Baltic seas Atlantic cod Gadus morhua stocks collapsed as part or one of the major factors inducing large-scale ecosystem regime shifts. Determining the relative contribution of overfishing and climate variability in causing these shifts has proven difficult. While facing similar...... of the local cod stock to environmental change. The recovery and healthy condition of the Sound cod stock illustrate the need for adaptive marine management strategies that maximize ecosystem resilience....

  18. Recent drought effects on ecosystem carbon uptake in California ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Guan, K.; Brodrick, P. G.; Berry, J. A.; Asner, G. P.

    2016-12-01

    California is one of the Earth's most biodiverse places and most of California has experienced an extreme (millennium scale) drought in the period of 2012-2015. Although the effect of the drought on the water resources have been well studied, the responses of ecosystems has not been explored in this detail. This study used advanced remotely sensed data (e.g., remotely sensed vegetation indices and solar-induced fluorescence), an ecosystem model, and model-data fusion techniques to study the impacts of the severe drought on ecosystem carbon uptakes in California. We have found that: (1) the drought has significantly suppressed carbon uptake and light use efficiency in California ecosystems - except in the semi-deserts, and the moist forests in the northern coast; (2) effects on the photosynthetic capacity of the ecosystems extends after the drought is relieved; and (3) the drought has shifted both the timing and magnitude of the seasonality of the carbon uptake in non-forested regions. These findings provide a better understanding of the impacts of droughts, and provide an improved basis for prediction of ecosystem responses under a more extreme climate in the future.

  19. Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynard, Christine N; Gay, Pierre-Emmanuel; Lecoq, Michel; Foucart, Antoine; Piou, Cyril; Chapuis, Marie-Pierre

    2017-11-01

    The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future

  20. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  1. A Decade of Plant Species Changes on a Mire in the Italian Alps. Vegetation-Controlled or Climate-Driven Mechanisms?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bragazza, L. [Department of Natural and Cultural Resources, University of Ferrara, Corso Porta Mare 2, I-44100 Ferrara (Italy)

    2006-08-15

    Variation of plant species cover on a Sphagnum-dominated mire in the south-eastern Alps of Italy was assessed over a 10-year period in relation to depth to the water table, peat accumulation rate, and climate. Population dynamics of vascular species appeared to be primarily affected by the autogenic process of peat accumulation, which determined the lowering of water-table position at microhabitat scale. Increase of depth to the water table through peat accumulation resulted in increased cover of ericaceous shrubs at previously moister microhabitats. Conversely, graminoid species such as Eriophorum vaginatum, Trichophorum caespitosum, and Scheuchzeria palustris being negatively affected by autogenic peat growth, were forced to shift their niche towards the wetter end of the water-table gradient. Carex limosa and Carex rostrata decreased their cover along the whole gradient in depth to the water table, likely due to multiple processes related to peat accumulation, competition with bryophytes, and a negative feedback due to increased litter deposition. Bryophytes, in particular Sphagnum mosses, appeared more sensitive to climatic conditions, with higher precipitation favouring faster-growing species. Accordingly, Sphagnum fallax and Sphagnum magellanicum increased their cover much more than Sphagnum capillifolium, whereas Polytrichum strictum showed the strongest decrease at sites where S. magellanicum cover increased most.

  2. Early signatures of regime shifts in complex dynamical systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2015-02-05

    Feb 5, 2015 ... A large number of studies have recently been carried out on the early signatures of regime shifts in a number of dynamical systems, e.g., ecosystems, the climate, fish and wildlife populations, ... Noise-induced regime shifts are also possible for which the vicinity of the bifurcation point is not essential. In this ...

  3. Climate-driven mathematical models to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak in the presence of widespread asymptomatic infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommar, Carlos J.; Robinson, Marguerite; Lowe, Rachel; Conan, Anne; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    The emergence and persistence of human pathogens in the environment represents a constant threat to society, with global implications for human health, economies and ecosystems. Of particular concern are vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, which are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new regions. This unprecedented situation has been partly attributed to the increase in global temperatures in recent decades which has allowed non-native mosquito species to invade and successfully colonise previously inhospitable environments. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. In turn, vector populations are thought to be driven by external environmental variables, such as precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the ability of asymptomatic individuals to successfully transmit the infection and evade control measures can undermine public health interventions. We employed a stochastic model, which explicitly included asymptomatic and undocumented laboratory confirmed cases, and applied it to a documented outbreak in Cambodia in 2012 (Trapeang Roka village, Kampong Speu Province). The resulting estimate of the reproduction number was considerably higher than values obtained for previous outbreaks and highlights the importance of asymptomatic transmission. Subsequently, we develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals alone is

  4. Managing for resilience: an information theory-based approach to assessing ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystems are complex and multivariate; hence, methods to assess the dynamics of ecosystems should have the capacity to evaluate multiple indicators simultaneously. Most research on identifying leading indicators of regime shifts has focused on univariate methods and simple mod...

  5. Two Late Pleistocene climate-driven incision/aggradation rhythms in the middle Dnieper River basin, west-central Russian Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panin, Andrei; Adamiec, Grzegorz; Buylaert, Jan-Pieter; Matlakhova, Ekaterina; Moska, Piotr; Novenko, Elena

    2017-06-01

    warm climate phases - late MIS 3, post-LGM warming including the Bølling-Allerød interstadial. Anomalously large size of the preserved river palaeochannels prove that the post-LGM incision phase was induced by a climatically forced large increase of water runoff. Considerable increase of water discharges is considered the most probably cause for the late MIS 4 incision phase also. Therefore river incision seems to have been governed rather by changing water runoff that oscillated in phase shift with the thermal regime.

  6. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecl, Gretta T; Araújo, Miguel B; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Jarzyna, Marta A; Jennings, Sarah; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif I; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; Mitchell, Nicola J; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Popova, Ekaterina; Robinson, Sharon A; Scheffers, Brett R; Shaw, Justine D; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Sunday, Jennifer M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wernberg, Thomas; Wapstra, Erik; Williams, Stephen E

    2017-03-31

    Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  7. OpenShift Workshop

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Rodriguez Peon, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Workshop to introduce developers to the OpenShift platform available at CERN. Several use cases will be shown, including deploying an existing application into OpenShift. We expect attendees to realize about OpenShift features and general architecture of the service.

  8. Monitoring Trends in Productivity to Identify Vulnerable Ecosystems: Measuring Ecosystem Condition and Drought Resistance Across California Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, S. L.; Tulbure, M. G.; Pérez-Luque, A. J.; Ryan, M. G.; Joyce, L. A.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are vital for their role in fixing and storing carbon and recycling water and nutrients. Ecosystems buffer the atmosphere from large changes in carbon dioxide through processes (i.e. photosynthesis, respiration, evapotranspiration, and nutrient cycling) that are both driven by and an important feedback to climate and disturbance regimes. Although we understand the carbon value provided by ecosystems, the persistence of carbon sinks is a concern because the processes promoting carbon storage change overtime, shift with climate, and are heavily influenced by disturbance regimes. Combined with the diversity of natural ecosystems, the recent occurrence of drought make California an important case study to examine variations in productivity and drought resistance. We used a time series (2002-2014) of climate and productivity indices to identify drivers of ecosystem condition and drought resistance. Our results show distinct patterns in water use efficiency (WUE) in resilient and vulnerable ecosystems. Under normal conditions WUE varied across California (0.08 to 3.85 g C mm-1 H2O) and WUE generally increased under severe drought conditions in 2014 (pdrought conditions. Strong correlations between changes in WUE, precipitation and leaf area index (LAI) indicate that ecosystems with a lower average LAI (i.e. grasslands) also had greater C uptake rates and higher rates of carbon uptake efficiency (CUE = NPP/ LAI) under severe drought conditions. Drought severity, precipitation and WUE were identified as important drivers of shifts in ecosystem classes over the study period. These findings have important implications for understanding climate change effects on primary productivity and C sequestration across ecosystems and how this may influence ecosystem resistance in the future.

  9. Microbial Ecosystems, Protection of

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodelier, P.L.E.; Nelson, K.E.

    2014-01-01

    Synonyms Conservation of microbial diversity and ecosystem functions provided by microbes; Preservation of microbial diversity and ecosystem functions provided by microbes Definition The use, management, and conservation of ecosystems in order to preserve microbial diversity and functioning.

  10. A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    Peñuelas, Josep

    2003-01-01

    Shifts in plant species and biome distribution in response to warming have been described in past climate changes. However, reported evidence of such shifts under current climate change is still scarce. By comparing current and 1945 vegetation distribution in the Montseny mountains (Catalonia, NE Spain), we report here a progressive replacement of cold-temperate ecosystems by Mediterranean ecosystems. Beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest has shifted altitudinally upwards by ca. 70 m at the highest ...

  11. From individuals to ecosystem function: toward an integration of evolutionary and ecosystem ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Oswald J; Grabowski, Jonathan H; Peckarsky, Barbara L; Preisser, Evan L; Trussell, Geoffrey C; Vonesh, James R

    2008-09-01

    An important goal in ecology is developing general theory on how the species composition of ecosystems is related to ecosystem properties and functions. Progress on this front is limited partly because of the need to identify mechanisms controlling functions that are common to a wide range of ecosystem types. We propose that one general mechanism, rooted in the evolutionary ecology of all species, is adaptive foraging behavior in response to predation risk. To support our claim, we present two kinds of empirical evidence from plant-based and detritus-based food chains of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The first kind comes from experiments that explicitly trace how adaptive foraging influences ecosystem properties and functions. The second kind comes from a synthesis of studies that individually examine complementary components of particular ecosystems that together provide an integrated perspective on the link between adaptive foraging and ecosystem function. We show that the indirect effects of predators on plant diversity, plant productivity, nutrient cycling, trophic transfer efficiencies, and energy flux caused by consumer foraging shifts in response to risk are qualitatively different from effects caused by reductions in prey density due to direct predation. We argue that a perspective of ecosystem function that considers effects of consumer behavior in response to predation risk will broaden our capacity to explain the range of outcomes and contingencies in trophic control of ecosystems. This perspective also provides an operational way to integrate evolutionary and ecosystem ecology, which is an important challenge in ecology.

  12. Risk and markets for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendor, Todd K; Riggsbee, J Adam; Doyle, Martin

    2011-12-15

    Market-based environmental regulations (e.g., cap and trade, "payments for ecosystem services") are increasingly common. However, few detailed studies of operating ecosystem markets have lent understanding to how such policies affect incentive structures for improving environmental quality. The largest U.S. market stems from the Clean Water Act provisions requiring ecosystem restoration to offset aquatic ecosystems damaged during development. We describe and test how variations in the rules governing this ecosystem market shift risk between regulators and entrepreneurs to promote ecological restoration. We analyze extensive national scale data to assess how two critical aspects of market structure - (a) the geographic scale of markets and (b) policies dictating the release of credits - affect the willingness of entrepreneurs to enter specific markets and produce credits. We find no discernible relationship between policies attempting to ease market entry and either the number of individual producers or total credits produced. Rather, market entry is primarily related to regional geography (the prevalence of aquatic ecosystems) and regional economic growth. Any improvements to policies governing ecosystem markets require explicit evaluation of the interplay between policy and risk elements affecting both regulators and entrepreneurial credit providers. Our findings extend to emerging, regulated ecosystem markets, including proposed carbon offset mechanisms, biodiversity banking, and water quality trading programs.

  13. Implementing OpenShift

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Adam

    2013-01-01

    A standard tutorial-based approach to using OpenShift and deploying custom or pre-built web applications to the OpenShift Online cloud.This book is for software developers and DevOps alike who are interested in learning how to use the OpenShift Platform-as-a-Service for developing and deploying applications, how the environment works on the back end, and how to deploy their very own open source Platform-as-a-Service based on the upstream OpenShift Origin project.

  14. Improvements in Spatiotemporal Ecosystem Monitoring in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas

    to be irreversible and accelerate due to positive feedbacks. However, the ecological consequences of climate change in the Arctic such as shifts in snowmelt timing, changes in ecosystem productivity, and shifts in phenology are not widely studied when taking the magnitude of abiotic changes into account. Long term...... ecosystem monitoring at several spatial scales are consequently of great importance when evaluating methods to adapt to and mitigate climatic changes in the Arctic. This PhD defense will focus on the use and scaling of multiplatform remotely sensed data in the monitoring of snow cover dynamics, vegetation...... productivity and phenology in Greenland. Specifically, emphasis will be put on: the application of broad band digital cameras in the monitoring of Arctic phenology; the use of digital camera data as a proxy for ecosystem productivity in sparsely vegetated biomes; investigations of the interactions between snow...

  15. Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Carlos M; Agustí, Susana; Wassmann, Paul; Arrieta, Jesús M; Alcaraz, Miquel; Coello, Alexandra; Marbà, Núria; Hendriks, Iris E; Holding, Johnna; García-Zarandona, Iñigo; Kritzberg, Emma; Vaqué, Dolors

    2012-02-01

    The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

  16. Climate-driven changes in water level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik

    2013-01-01

    throughout the period. The lake did not return to its pre-8.2-ka event status during the period of analysis, but remained more productive for centuries after the climatic anomaly as judged from the pigment accumulation and assemblage composition. The change to more eutrophic conditions may have been...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...

  17. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

    2013-07-01

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  19. Homogeneous bilateral block shifts

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Homogeneous bilateral block shifts. ADAM KORÁNYI. Department of Mathematics, The Graduate Center, City University of New York,. New York, NY 10016, USA. E-mail: Adam.Koranyi@lehman.cuny.edu. MS received 18 January 2013. Abstract. A new 3-parameter family of homogeneous 2-by-2 block shifts is described.

  20. Homogeneous bilateral block shifts

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A new 3-parameter family of homogeneous 2-by-2 block shifts is described. These are the first examples of irreducible homogeneous bilateral block shifts of block size larger than 1. Author Affiliations. Adam Korányi1. Department of Mathematics, The Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY 10016, USA ...

  1. Homogeneous bilateral block shifts

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Douglas class were classified in [3]; they are unilateral block shifts of arbitrary block size (i.e. dim H(n) can be anything). However, no examples of irreducible homogeneous bilateral block shifts of block size larger than 1 were known until now.

  2. Shifting employment revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, Jan; Gramuglia, Alessia

    2014-01-01

    The CLR-network examined in 2006 the phenomenon of undeclared labour, with specific regard to the construction sector. The resulting study, Shifting Employment: undeclared labour in construction (Shifting-study hereafter), gave evidence that this is an area particularly affected by undeclared

  3. OpenShift cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Gulati, Shekhar

    2014-01-01

    If you are a web application developer who wants to use the OpenShift platform to host your next big idea but are looking for guidance on how to achieve this, then this book is the first step you need to take. This is a very accessible cookbook where no previous knowledge of OpenShift is needed.

  4. A Framework to Quantify the Strength of the Ecological Links Between an Environmental Stressor and Final Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic stressors such as climate change, fire, and pollution are driving shifts in ecosystem function and resilience. Scientists generally rely on biological indicators of these stressors to signal that ecosystem conditions have been altered beyond an acceptable amount. Ho...

  5. Ecology: Fungal feedbacks to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natali, Susan M.; Mack, Michelle C.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is known to affect the carbon balance of Arctic tundra ecosystems by influencing plant growth and decomposition. Less predictable climate-driven biotic events, such as disease outbreaks, are now shown to potentially shift these ecosystems from net carbon sinks to sources.

  6. What can ecology contribute to ecosystem-based management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrush, Simon F; Dayton, Paul K

    2010-01-01

    Modern fishing changes the ocean environment in many ways, including disturbing the sea floor, altering the food webs, and shifting many important ecosystem functions. Natural history, oceanographic, habitat, behavior, and ecological information must be integrated to implement meaningful ecosystem-based management. We discuss the urgent need to expand the concept of essential fish habitat to include important food-web relationships. The need for a broader perspective in terms of ecosystem function and the effects of interactive stressors is emphasized to maintain the vitality and resilience of valued ecosystems. Maintenance of multiple ecosystem functions is a key factor in the adaptive capacity of ecosystems to change. We argue that an ecological understanding of resilience embraces uncertainty and encourages multiple approaches to the management of humans such that ecosystem functions are maintained.

  7. Ecosystem degradation in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, B.N.

    1990-01-01

    Environmental and ecosystem studies have assumed greater relevance in the last decade of the twentieth century than even before. The urban settlements are becoming over-crowded and industries are increasingly polluting the air, water and sound in our larger metropolises. Degradation of different types of ecosystem are discussed in this book, Ecosystem Degradation in India. The book has been divided into seven chapters: Introduction, Coastal and Delta Ecosystem, River Basin Ecosystem, Mountain Ecosystem, Forest Ecosystem, Urban Ecosystem and the last chapter deals with the Environmental Problems and Planning. In the introduction the environmental and ecosystem degradation problems in India is highlighted as a whole while in other chapters mostly case studies by experts who know their respective terrain very intimately are included. The case study papers cover most part of India and deal with local problems, stretching from east coast to west coast and from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. (author)

  8. Transformation of Digital Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan; Hedman, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    the Digital Ecosystem Technology Transformation (DETT) framework for explaining technology-based transformation of digital ecosystems by integrating theories of business and technology ecosystems. The framework depicts ecosystem transformation as distributed and emergent from micro-, meso-, and macro- level...... coopetition. The DETT framework consists an alternative to the existing explanations of digital ecosystem transformation as the rational management of one central actor balancing ecosystem tensions. We illustrate the use of the framework by a case study of transformation in the digital payment ecosystem......In digital ecosystems, the fusion relation between business and technology means that the decision of technical compatibility of the offering is also the decision of how to position the firm relative to the coopetive relations that characterize business ecosystems. In this article we develop...

  9. Nurses' shift reports

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buus, Niels; Hoeck, Bente; Hamilton, Bridget Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    practices were described as highly conventionalised and locally situated, but with occasional opportunities for improvisation and negotiation between nurses. Finally, shift reports were described as multifunctional meetings, with individual and social effects for nurses and teams. CONCLUSION: Innovations...... of nurses' shift reports. BACKGROUND: Nurses' shift reports are routine occurrences in healthcare organisations that are viewed as crucial for patient outcomes, patient safety and continuity of care. Studies of communication between nurses attend primarily to 1:1 communication and analyse the adequacy...... and negotiate care....

  10. Tree growth and vegetation activity at the ecosystem-scale in the eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulthard, Bethany L.; Touchan, Ramzi; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Meko, David M.; Sivrikaya, Fatih

    2017-08-01

    Linking annual tree growth with remotely-sensed terrestrial vegetation indices provides a basis for using tree rings as proxies for ecosystem primary productivity over large spatial and long temporal scales. In contrast with most previous tree ring/remote sensing studies that have focused on temperature-limited boreal and taiga environments, here we compare the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with a network of Pinus brutia tree ring width chronologies collected along ecological gradients in semiarid Cyprus, where both radial tree growth and broader vegetation activity are controlled by drought. We find that the interaction between precipitation, elevation, and land-cover type generate a relationship between radial tree growth and NDVI. While tree ring chronologies at higher-elevation forested sites do not exhibit climate-driven linkages with NDVI, chronologies at lower-elevation dry sites are strongly correlated with NDVI during the winter precipitation season. At lower-elevation sites, land cover is dominated by grasslands and shrublands and tree ring widths operate as a proxy for ecosystem-scale vegetation activity. Tree rings can therefore be used to reconstruct productivity in water-limited grasslands and shrublands, where future drought stress is expected to alter the global carbon cycle, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning in the 21st century.

  11. Shift Verification and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandya, Tara M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Evans, Thomas M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Davidson, Gregory G [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Seth R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Godfrey, Andrew T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-07

    This documentation outlines the verification and validation of Shift for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Five main types of problems were used for validation: small criticality benchmark problems; full-core reactor benchmarks for light water reactors; fixed-source coupled neutron-photon dosimetry benchmarks; depletion/burnup benchmarks; and full-core reactor performance benchmarks. We compared Shift results to measured data and other simulated Monte Carlo radiation transport code results, and found very good agreement in a variety of comparison measures. These include prediction of critical eigenvalue, radial and axial pin power distributions, rod worth, leakage spectra, and nuclide inventories over a burn cycle. Based on this validation of Shift, we are confident in Shift to provide reference results for CASL benchmarking.

  12. Coral reefs - Specialized ecosystems

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Wafar, M.V.M.

    This paper discusses briefly some aspects that characterize and differentiate coral reef ecosystems from other tropical marine ecosystems. A brief account on the resources that are extractable from coral reefs, their susceptibility to natural...

  13. Soil community structure and ecosystem C cycling in arid ecosystems experiencing multiple environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavao-Zuckerman, M. A.; Cable, J. M.; Huxman, T. E.; Scott, R. L.; Williams, D. G.

    2005-12-01

    Despite the importance of soil carbon cycling to the response of water-limited ecosystems to global change, our understanding of this ecosystem component is still in its infancy. Adding to the complexity in knowledge building, ecosystems are exposed to simultaneous multiple shifts within global change scenarios. For example, semiarid grasslands in southern Arizona are currently undergoing encroachment by woody plants at the same time that climate change models predict increases in frequency and magnitude of precipitation inputs over the next 50 years. We are investigating how heterogeneity of plant cover mediates the response of soil community structure and ecosystem C cycling to seasonal monsoon rain inputs. Field plots were established in a mesquite shrubland in the San Pedro River Basin, AZ that are dominated by either: Sporobulus wrightii, medium sized Prosopis velutina, or large Prosopis velutina, additional plots were located in intercanopy areas. Both increased quantity and quality of litter inputs to the soil component, and physical influences of the shrubs on ecosystem water and energy budgets affects plots influenced by the development of Prosopis. Plant species influenced the response of soil microbial biomass to precipitation pulses. Plant cover also influenced the dynamics of soil nematodes. Magnitude of precipitation inputs and plant cover interact to affect the abundance of trophic group abundances and food web structure. These results will be discussed vis-à-vis the importance of soil organisms for driving ecosystem dynamics, and the appropriateness of dominant paradigms in arid land ecology (notably the pulse-reserve paradigm) for understanding soil components of arid ecosystems. Shifts in soil flora and fauna have important implications for ecosystem C-cycling via alterations of trophic dynamics, and the contribution of heterotrophic respiration to C efflux from ecosystems.

  14. Determination of areas with the most significant shift in persistence of pests in Europe under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svobodová, Eva; Trnka, Miroslav; Dubrovský, Martin; Semerádová, Daniela; Eitzinger, Josef; Stěpánek, Petr; Zalud, Zdeněk

    2014-05-01

    This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on the ranges of crop pest species in Europe. The organisms included in the study were species from the family Tortricidae (Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana) and the family Pyralidae (Ostrinia nubilalis), Chrysomelidae beetles (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus) and species from the family Aphididae (Ropalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae). Climate conditions in the year 2055 were simulated using a subset of five representative global circulation models. Model simulations using these climate change scenarios showed significant shifts in the climatic niches of the species in this study. For Central Europe, the models predicted a shift in the ranges of pest species to higher altitudes and increases in the number of generations (NG) of the pests. In contrast, in the southern regions of Europe, the NG is likely to decrease owing to insufficient humidity. The ranges of species are likely to shift to the north. Based on the ensemble-scenario mean for 2055, a climate-driven northward shift of between 3° N (O. nubilalis) and 11° N (L. botrana) is expected. The areas that are most sensitive to experiencing a significant increase in climate suitability for future pest persistence were identified. These areas include Central Europe, the higher altitudes of the Alps and Carpathians and areas above 55° N. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Rights to ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. Many of these services are provided outside the borders of the land where they are produced; this article investigates who is entitled to these non-excludable ecosystem services from two libertarian perspectives. Taking a

  16. Towards ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duku, C.; Rathjens, H.; Zwart, S.J.; Hein, L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is an emerging field that aims to provide a consistent approach to analysing environment-economy interactions. One of the specific features of ecosystem accounting is the distinction between the capacity and the flow of ecosystem services. Ecohydrological modelling to support

  17. Global Ecosystem Restoration Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandez, Miguel; Garcia, Monica; Fernandez, Nestor

    2015-01-01

    The Global ecosystem restoration index (GERI) is a composite index that integrates structural and functional aspects of the ecosystem restoration process. These elements are evaluated through a window that looks into a baseline for degraded ecosystems with the objective to assess restoration...

  18. Ecosystem classification, Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.J. Robin-Abbott; L.H. Pardo

    2011-01-01

    The ecosystem classification in this report is based on the ecoregions developed through the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) for North America (CEC 1997). Only ecosystems that occur in the United States are included. CEC ecoregions are described, with slight modifications, below (CEC 1997) and shown in Figures 2.1 and 2.2. We chose this ecosystem...

  19. Ecosystem services in ECOCLIM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lise Lotte; Boegh, Eva; Bendtsen, J

    that actions initiated to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions are sustainable and not destructive to existing ecosystem services. Therefore it is important to address i.e. land use change in relation to the regulating services of the ecosystems, such as carbon sequestration and climate regulation. At present...... a thorough understanding of the ecosystem processes controlling the uptake or emissions of GHG is fundamental. Here we present ECOCLIM in the context of ecosystem services and the experimental studies within ECOCLIM which will lead to an enhanced understanding of Danish ecosystems....

  20. Early signatures of regime shifts in complex dynamical systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2015-02-05

    Feb 5, 2015 ... Abstract. A large number of studies have recently been carried out on the early signatures of regime shifts in a number of dynamical systems, e.g., ecosystems, the climate, fish and wildlife populations, financial markets, complex diseases and gene circuits. The underlying model in most cases is that of the ...

  1. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

  2. Shifting conceptions of complexity in forest management and silviculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert T. Fahey; Brandon C. Alveshere; Julia I. Burton; Anthony W. D' Amato; Yvette L. Dickinson; William S. Keeton; Christel C. Kern; Andrew J. Larson; Brian J. Palik; Klaus J. Puettmann; Michael R. Saunders; Christopher R. Webster; Jeff W. Atkins; Christopher M. Gough; Brady S. Hardiman

    2018-01-01

    In the past several decades, a trend in forestry and silviculture has been toward promoting complexity in forest ecosystems, but how complexity is conceived and described has shifted over time as new ideas and terminology have been introduced. Historically, ecologically-focused silviculture has focused largely on manipulation of structural complexity, but often with...

  3. Fishing for ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Kevin L.; Pegg, Mark A.; Cole, Nicholas W.; Siddons, Stephen F.; Fedele, Alexis D.; Harmon, Brian S.; Ruskamp, Ryan L.; Turner, Dylan R.; Uerling, Caleb C.

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships.

  4. Fishing for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Kevin L; Pegg, Mark A; Cole, Nicholas W; Siddons, Stephen F; Fedele, Alexis D; Harmon, Brian S; Ruskamp, Ryan L; Turner, Dylan R; Uerling, Caleb C

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  6. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Birgé, Hannah E; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G; Johnson, Richard K

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  7. Valuing Ecosystem Services in Terms of Ecological Risks and Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abson, Dave; Termansen, Mette

    2011-01-01

    ecosystem services are not of direct value and that the losses of such services can be expressed in terms of the effects of their loss on the risk to the provision of the directly valued ecosystem services they support. We propose a heuristic framework that considers the relations between ecological risks...... are generally produced and consumed in ways that make them amenable to economic valuation. The values associated with cultural ecosystem services lie outside the domain of economic valuation, but their worth may be expressed through noneconomic, deliberative forms of valuation. We argue that supporting...... and returns in the provision of ecosystem services. The proposed ecosystem-service valuation framework, which allows the expression of the value of all types of ecosystem services, calls for a shift from static, purely monetary valuation toward the consideration of trade-offs between the current flow...

  8. Shifting currents: Progress, setbacks, and shifts in policy and practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Dunning, Charles; Robertson, Dale M.

    2016-01-01

    clean water future. More than a decade has passed since our first statewide WOW conversation and the report that captured recommendations from its participants: Waters of Wisconsin: The Future of Our Aquatic Ecosystems and Resources. Drawing from a diverse and growing set of stakeholders from across the state, the Wisconsin Academy initiated a new conversation in 2012 (known as WOW II) to assess progress in regard to our 2003 recommendations. We also sought to review the status of waters in Wisconsin today. The result of this renewed conversation is Shifting Currents: Progress, Setbacks, and Shifts in Policy and Practice. The new report assesses progress in brief, and explores in greater depth the continuing and emerging challenges to water quality, supply, and aquatic ecosystems in Wisconsin.In this report, we first review the context and frameworks for public decision-making about water and then examine some of the root causes—or “drivers”—and ecological stressors that underlie many of the symptoms we see in the form of pollution or ecosystem degradation in Wisconsin. This is followed by a summary of current water issues, many of which had been identified in the 2003 report and remain relevant today. We examine progress since 2003 but also setbacks, and discuss issues that we are likely to continue to face in the coming decades, including controlling agricultural runoff, mitigating climate change and grappling with its effects on the state’s waters, protecting groundwater from bacterial contamination and other pollutants, and preventing groundwater depletion. We also attempt to anticipate issues on the horizon. We offer a deeper look at some particular challenges, such as phosphorus pollution and groundwater contamination. We then consider the current decision-making framework and how it is shaping our capacity to respond to water challenges in Wisconsin. Finally, we offer recommendations and identify opportunities to safeguard Wisconsin’s waters in the

  9. Shifting Up a Gear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Martin

    1997-01-01

    Shift workers are often excluded from educational opportunities on and off the job. General education and leisure learning needs are addressed less than job-specific training needs. Providers should consider open/distance learning, creative marketing, targeted funding, and consortia of employer-developed programs. (SK)

  10. Understanding regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heymann, Matthias; Nielsen, Kristian Hvidtfelt

    ”. Danish wind power development is all the more surprising, as the innovation process in wind technology was carried to a large extent by non-academic craftsmen and political activists. Many features of this innovation story have been investigated and that research makes it possible to summarize...... the current understanding of the regime shift....

  11. Shifting employment revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, J.; Gramuglia, A.

    2014-01-01

    The CLR-network examined in 2006 the phenomenon of undeclared labour, with specific regard to the construction sector. The resulting study, Shifting Employment: undeclared labour in construction, gave evidence that this is an area particularly affected by undeclared activities with one of the

  12. Paradigm Shifts into Giftedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meckstroth, Elizabeth

    1992-01-01

    The process of recognizing qualities of giftedness in a child evokes a range of responses in families, affecting the roles and relationships of an entire family system as the whole family constellation shifts to accommodate a child's giftedness, and each family member's reactions differ because of their own particular temperament, personality,…

  13. Seagrass sediments reveal the long-term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Oscar; Lavery, Paul; Masque, Pere; Inostroza, Karina; Bongiovanni, James; Duarte, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time-course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass-dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Ecosystem thresholds: Interrelated tipping points in broad-scale tree mortality, fire regimes, and ecohydrological dynamics (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.

    2010-12-01

    Climate variability and land use are key drivers of interrelated changes in ecosystem patterns and disturbance processes, including broad-scale tree mortality, fire regimes, and ecohydrological runoff and erosion dynamics. Pervasive ecosystem changes have occurred over the past century in montane landscapes of the southwestern USA, with forest die-off and severe fire activity affecting millions of hectares since the late 1990s, a period including severe drought and unusual warmth. Current and historic patterns of vegetation change, forest die-off (and associated insect outbreaks), fire activity, and runoff and erosion dynamics are described for the Southwest (particularly the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico) to illustrate nonlinear threshold responses to climate and land use stressors. In addition, a recent global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality (Allen et al., 2010, Forest Ecology and Management 259:660-684) highlights the central role of thresholds in processes at fine spatial scales to drive tipping points in tree mortality that can propagate at landscape and even sub-continental scales. These climate-driven increases in both chronic background tree mortality rates and episodes of rapid, broad-scale forest mortality are linked to thresholds in tree physiological stress responses, sometimes amplified by epidemic dynamics of associated biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles in western North America). Methods for these results include dendrochronological reconstructions of tree demographies and fire regimes, dendrometer measurements of pine tree-growth since 1991 and associated tree-ring studies of stable carbon isotopes, monitoring of herbaceous vegetation along 3 km of permanent transects since 1991, photographic and remote-sensing interpretation of forest die-off and fire activity, intensive storm-event-resolution measurements of runoff and erosion at multiple spatial scales from a 1.09 ha watershed since 1993, and ongoing research on the patterns

  15. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-02

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.

  16. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Ecosystem quality in LCIA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Woods, John S.; Damiani, Mattia; Fantke, Peter

    2017-01-01

    viewpoint and recommendations for future developments in LCIA related to the ecosystem quality area of protection (AoP). Through our recommendations, we aim to encourage LCIA developments that improve the usefulness and global acceptability of LCIA results. Methods: We analyze current ecosystem quality...... metrics and provide recommendations to the LCIA research community for achieving further developments towards comparable and more ecologically relevant metrics addressing ecosystem quality. Results and discussion: We recommend that LCIA development for ecosystem quality should tend towards species......—should be framed to facilitate their final expression in a single, aggregated metric. This would also improve comparability with other LCIA damage-level indicators. Furthermore, to allow for a broader inclusion of ecosystem quality perspectives, the development of an additional indicator related to ecosystem...

  18. Dynamic belowground ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, W. F.; Santantonio, D.; McGinty, D.

    1979-01-01

    Roots comprise the primary interface between plant and soil for uptake of water and nutrients. Much is known about the biochemistry, cell physiology and membrane physics associated with these important processes. In this paper we discuss the role of the belowground ecosystem, especially the autotrophic root component, in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. Beyond recognizing roles of anchoring terrestrial plants and uptake of water and nutrients, this component of the forest has been largely neglected in an ecosystem context. In order to focus discussion on the properties of the belowground ecosystem, we use the term rhizosphere to include roots, mycorrhizae, microbes, and rhizophagus invertebrates.

  19. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.F.; Sherwood, D.G.

    1982-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift reactor comprises a reactive core having fuel assemblies accommodating both water displacer elements and neutron absorbing control rods for selectively changing the volume of water-moderator in the core. The fuel assemblies with displacer and control rods are arranged in alternating fashion so that one displacer element drive mechanism may move displacer elements in more than one fuel assembly without interfering with the movement of control rods of a corresponding control rod drive mechanisms. (author)

  20. The Emerging Promise of Business EcoSystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Carbone

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the relevance of new business models and ecosystems in the knowledge-era economy. We begin with an introduction then argue that the shift in what is valued drives the need for new business models. The third section provides examples of innovative business models. The fourth section describes two key roles in an ecosystem: keystone and niche player. Finally, the last section provides the conclusions of this article.

  1. Placing ecosystem sustainability within the context of dynamic earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidle, R. C.

    2013-12-01

    Because the concept of ecosystem sustainability and the practice of sustainable land management both have long-term foci, it is necessary to view these from the perspective of dynamic rather than static systems. In addition to the typical static system approach for assessing ecosystem sustainability, three additional perspectives are presented. These are resilient systems, systems where tipping points occur, and systems subject to episodic geophysical resetting. Ecosystem resilience accommodates both natural and anthropogenic stressors and should be considered to properly frame many ecosystem assessments. A more complex problem emerges when stressors push systems to tipping points, causing a regime shift. Both chronic anthropogenic activities (e.g., over-grazing, forest conversion, poor irrigation practices) and natural changes (e.g., climate anomalies, geochemical weathering, tectonic uplift, vegetative succession) can exhaust ecosystem resilience leading to a rapid change in state. Anthropogenic perturbations can also lower the initiation threshold and increase the magnitude and frequency of certain natural disasters, increasing the likelihood of ecosystem change. Furthermore, when major episodic geophysical events (e.g., large earthquakes, tsunami, and floods; widespread volcanic activity and landslides) exceed thresholds of ecosystem resilience they may reset the attributes of entire systems or landscapes. Large disasters can initiate a cascade of linked events, as in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, where tsunami, fires, landslides, artificial fillslope collapses, radioactive releases, and associated health effects occurred. Understanding the potential for natural change (both chronic and episodic) in ecosystems is essential not only to the environmental aspect of sustainability but also to economic and social aspects. Examples are presented for: (1) ecosystems vulnerable to tipping points (Yunnan, China) and (2) ecosystems reset by earthquakes and

  2. BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS VS BUSINESS DIGITAL ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela Lazarica

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available E-business is often described as the small organisations’ gateway to global business and markets. The adoption of Internet-based technologies for e-business is a continuous process, with sequential steps of evolution. The latter step in the adoption of Internet-based technologies for business, where the business services and the software components are supported by a pervasive software environment, which shows an evolutionary and self-organising behaviour are named digital business ecosystems. The digital business ecosystems are characterized by intelligent software components and services, knowledge transfer, interactive training frameworks and integration of business processes and e-government models.

  3. A new modeling approach to define marine ecosystems food-web status with uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaalali, Aurélie; Saint-Béat, Blanche; Lassalle, Géraldine; Le Loc'h, François; Tecchio, Samuele; Safi, Georges; Savenkoff, Claude; Lobry, Jérémy; Niquil, Nathalie

    2015-06-01

    Ecosystem models are currently one of the most powerful approaches used to project and analyse the consequences of anthropogenic and climate-driven changes in food web structure and function. The modeling community is however still finding the effective representation of microbial processes as challenging and lacks of techniques for assessing flow uncertainty explicitly. A linear inverse model of the Bay of Biscay continental shelf was built using a Monte Carlo method coupled with a Markov Chain (LIM-MCMC) to characterize the system's trophic food-web status and its associated structural and functional properties. By taking into account the natural variability of ecosystems (and their associated flows) and the lack of data on these environments, this innovative approach enabled the quantification of uncertainties for both estimated flows and derived food-web indices. This uncertainty assessment constituted a real improvement on the existing Ecopath model for the same area and both models results were compared. Our results suggested a food web characterized by main flows at the basis of the food web and a high contribution of primary producers and detritus to the entire system input flows. The developmental stage of the ecosystem was characterized using estimated Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indices; the LIM-MCMC produced a higher estimate of flow specialization (than the estimate from Ecopath) owing to better consideration of bacterial processes. The results also pointed to a detritus-based food-web with a web-like structure and an intermediate level of internal flow complexity, confirming the results of previous studies. Other current research on ecosystem model comparability is also presented.

  4. Matching the phenology of Net Ecosystem Exchange and vegetation indices estimated with MODIS and FLUXNET in-situ observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balzarolo, M.; Vicca, S.; Nguy-Robertson, A.L.; Bonal, D.; Elbers, J.A.; Fu, Y.H.; Grünwald, T.; Horemans, J.A.; Papale, D.; Peñuelas, J.; Suyker, A.; Veroustraete, F.

    2016-01-01

    Shifts in ecosystem phenology play an important role in the definition of inter-annual variability of net ecosystem carbon uptake. A good estimate at the global scale of ecosystem phenology, mainly that of photosynthesis or gross primary productivity (GPP), may be provided by vegetation indices

  5. Tribal Ecosystem Research Program (TERP) Workshop ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    USEPA is developing alternative approaches to quantify improvements to impaired waterbodies (USEPA 303(d)/TMDL Draft Guidance). Tribal environmental programs are leading the way in the paradigm shift towards sustainability of natural resources. Resources such as wildlife, aquatic habitat are dependent on the development of a riparian and upland management strategy, which considers and adapts to certain ecological relationships. Tribal traditional environmental knowledge (TEK) is a central concept in the cultural and resource stewardship practices of Native Americans. Native American populations have been accumulating knowledge of these ecosystem relationships, and have relied on them for basic survival for thousands of years. As such, TEK is the accumulated understanding of ecosystem function. As North America’s first environmental stewards, Native American populations have developed a unique relationship with the land and its resources. Objective of this workshop is to fuse TEK with environmental science to create an ecosystem, or landscape, research program oriented toward land management practices. This is essentially translating and combining TEK with an ecosystem function approach to provide a comprehensive basis for identifying and evaluating current and historical land use practices. Tribal and USEPA cooperative stream and wetland research focuses on making the connections between upland and riparian ecosystems. Analyzing spatial relationships and short

  6. Coastal ecosystems, productivity and ecosystem protection: Coastal ecosystem management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngoile, M.A.K.; Horrill, C.J. (Inst. of Marine Sciences, Zanzibar (Tanzania, United Republic of))

    1993-01-01

    The coastal zone is a complex ecosystem under the influence of physical, chemical and biological processes. Under natural conditions these processes interact and maintain an equilibrium in the coastal ecosystem. Man makes a variety of important uses of coastal resources, ranging from harvesting of living resources, extraction of nonliving resources, and recreation, to the disposal of wastes. Man's extensive use of the oceans introduces factors which bring about an imbalance in the natural processes, and may result in harmful and hazardous effects to life hindering further use. Man's pressure on the resources of the coastal zone is already manifest and will increase manifold. This calls for an immediate solution to the protection and sustainable use of coastal resources. The current sectorized approach to the management of human activities will not solve the problem because the different resources of the coastal zone interact in such a manner that disturbances in one cause imbalance in the others. This is further complicated by the sectorized approach to research and limited communication between policy makers, managers, and scientists. This paper discusses strategies for managing coastal-resources use through an integrated approach. The coastal zone is presented as a unified ecosystem in equilibrium and shows that man's extensive use of the coastal resources destabilizes this equilibrium. Examples from the East Africa Region are presented. 15 refs, 2 figs, 3 tabs

  7. Coastal ecosystems, productivity and ecosystem protection: Coastal ecosystem management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngoile, M.A.K.; Horrill, C.J.

    1993-01-01

    The coastal zone is a complex ecosystem under the influence of physical, chemical and biological processes. Under natural conditions these processes interact and maintain an equilibrium in the coastal ecosystem. Man makes a variety of important uses of coastal resources, ranging from harvesting of living resources, extraction of nonliving resources, and recreation, to the disposal of wastes. Man's extensive use of the oceans introduces factors which bring about an imbalance in the natural processes, and may result in harmful and hazardous effects to life hindering further use. Man's pressure on the resources of the coastal zone is already manifest and will increase manifold. This calls for an immediate solution to the protection and sustainable use of coastal resources. The current sectorized approach to the management of human activities will not solve the problem because the different resources of the coastal zone interact in such a manner that disturbances in one cause imbalance in the others. This is further complicated by the sectorized approach to research and limited communication between policy makers, managers, and scientists. This paper discusses strategies for managing coastal-resources use through an integrated approach. The coastal zone is presented as a unified ecosystem in equilibrium and shows that man's extensive use of the coastal resources destabilizes this equilibrium. Examples from the East Africa Region are presented. 15 refs, 2 figs, 3 tabs

  8. Belowground ecosystems [chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carole Coe Klopatek

    1995-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service defined ecosystem management as "an ecological approach to achieve multiple-use management of national forests and grasslands by blending the needs of people and environmental values in such a way that national forests and grasslands represent diverse, healthy, productive, and sustainable ecosystems" (June 4, 1992, letter from Chief FS...

  9. Ecosystem Management and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.D. Peine; B.L. Jacobs; K.E. Franzreb; M.R. Stevens

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem management (EM) promotes an integrated approach to environmental issues; its central goal is the protection of entire ecosystems. By focusing on an interdisciplinary solution to environmental challenges, EM can help to synthesize societal, economic scientific, and governmental goals. Furthermore, as EM becomes part of the foundation of environmental...

  10. Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocock, K.L.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes information on the distribution and movement of radionuclides in semi-natural terrestrial ecosystems in north-west England with particular emphasis on inputs to, and outputs from ecosystems; on plant and soil aspects; and on radionuclides in fallout and in discharges by the nuclear industry. (author)

  11. Mapping cultural ecosystem services:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Zulian, Grazia; Kopperoinen, Leena

    2014-01-01

    Research on ecosystem services mapping and valuing has increased significantly in recent years. However, compared to provisioning and regulating services, cultural ecosystem services have not yet been fully integrated into operational frameworks. One reason for this is that transdisciplinarity...... surveys are a main source of information. Among cultural ecosystem services, assessment of outdoor recreation can be based on a large pool of literature developed mostly in social and medical science, and landscape and ecology studies. This paper presents a methodology to include recreation...... in the conceptual framework for EU wide ecosystem assessments (Maes et al., 2013), which couples existing approaches for recreation management at country level with behavioural data derived from surveys, and population distribution data. The proposed framework is based on three components: the ecosystem function...

  12. Ecosystem responses to recent climate change and fire disturbance at northern high latitudes: observations and model results contrasting northern Eurasia and North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goetz, S J; Mack, M C; Gurney, K R; Randerson, J T; Houghton, R A

    2007-01-01

    Vegetation composition at high latitudes plays a critical role in the climate and, in turn, is strongly affected by the climate. The increased frequency of fires expected as a result of climate warming at high latitudes will feedback positively to further warming by releasing carbon to the atmosphere, but will also feedback negatively by increasing the surface albedo. The net effect is complex because the severity of fire affects the trajectory of both carbon stocks and albedo change following a fire, and these are likely to differ between high latitude ecosystems in North America and northern Eurasia. Here we use growth trajectories, productivity trends and regional carbon fluxes to characterize these fire- and climate-driven changes

  13. Noise-induced stability in dryland plant ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2005-08-02

    Dryland plant ecosystems tend to exhibit bistable dynamics with two preferential configurations of bare and vegetated soils. Climate fluctuations are usually believed to act as a source of disturbance on these ecosystems and to reduce their stability and resilience. In contrast, this work shows that random interannual fluctuations of precipitation may lead to the emergence of an intermediate statistically stable condition between the two stable states of the deterministic dynamics of vegetation. As a result, there is an enhancement of ecosystem resilience and a decrease in the likelihood of catastrophic shifts to the desert state.

  14. Shift rostering using decomposition: assign weekend shifts first

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veen, Egbert; Hans, Elias W.; Post, Gerhard F.; Veltman, Bart

    This paper introduces a shift rostering problem that surprisingly has not been studied in literature: the weekend shift rostering problem. It is motivated by our experience that employees’ shift preferences predominantly focus on the weekends, since many social activities happen during weekends. The

  15. Ecosystem approach in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabiullin, Iskander

    2017-04-01

    Environmental education is a base for sustainable development. Therefore, in our school we pay great attention to environmental education. Environmental education in our school is based on ecosystem approach. What is an ecosystem approach? Ecosystem is a fundamental concept of ecology. Living organisms and their non-living environments interact with each other as a system, and the biosphere planet functions as a global ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary for children to understand relationships in ecosystems, and we have to develop systems thinking in our students. Ecosystem approach and systems thinking should help us to solve global environmental problems. How do we implement the ecosystem approach? Students must understand that our biosphere functions as a single ecosystem and even small changes can lead to environmental disasters. Even the disappearance of one plant or animal species can lead to irreversible consequences. So in the classroom we learn the importance of each living organism for the nature. We pay special attention to endangered species, which are listed in the Red Data List. Kids are doing projects about these organisms, make videos, print brochures and newspapers. Fieldwork also plays an important role for ecosystem approach. Every summer, we go out for expeditions to study species of plants and animals listed in the Red Data List of Tatarstan. In class, students often write essays on behalf of any endangered species of plants or animals, this also helps them to understand the importance of each living organism in nature. Each spring we organise a festival of environmental projects among students. Groups of 4-5 students work on a solution of environmental problems, such as water, air or soil pollution, waste recycling, the loss of biodiversity, etc. Participants shoot a clip about their project, print brochures. Furthermore, some of the students participate in national and international scientific Olympiads with their projects. In addition to

  16. Repetition and Translation Shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Zupan

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Repetition manifests itself in different ways and at different levels of the text. The first basic type of repetition involves complete recurrences; in which a particular textual feature repeats in its entirety. The second type involves partial recurrences; in which the second repetition of the same textual feature includes certain modifications to the first occurrence. In the article; repetitive patterns in Edgar Allan Poe’s short story “The Fall of the House of Usher” and its Slovene translation; “Konec Usherjeve hiše”; are compared. The author examines different kinds of repetitive patterns. Repetitions are compared at both the micro- and macrostructural levels. As detailed analyses have shown; considerable microstructural translation shifts occur in certain types of repetitive patterns. Since these are not only occasional; sporadic phenomena; but are of a relatively high frequency; they reduce the translated text’s potential for achieving some of the gothic effects. The macrostructural textual property particularly affected by these shifts is the narrator’s experience as described by the narrative; which suffers a reduction in intensity.

  17. Insects overshoot the expected upslope shift caused by climate warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claus Bässler

    Full Text Available Along elevational gradients, climate warming may lead to an upslope shift of the lower and upper range margin of organisms. A recent meta-analysis concluded that these shifts are species specific and considerably differ among taxonomic lineages. We used the opportunity to compare upper range margins of five lineages (plants, beetles, flies, hymenoptera, and birds between 1902-1904 and 2006-2007 within one region (Bavarian Forest, Central Europe. Based on the increase in the regional mean annual temperature during this period and the regional lapse rate, the upslope shift is expected to be between 51 and 201 m. Averaged across species within lineages, the range margin of all animal lineages shifted upslope, but that of plants did not. For animals, the observed shifts were probably due to shifts in temperature and not to changes in habitat conditions. The range margin of plants is therefore apparently not constrained by temperature, a result contrasting recent findings. The mean shift of birds (165 m was within the predicted range and consistent with a recent global meta-analysis. However, the upslope shift of the three insect lineages (>260 m exceeded the expected shift even after considering several sources of uncertainty, which indicated a non-linear response to temperature. Our analysis demonstrated broad differences among lineages in their response to climate change even within one region. Furthermore, on the considered scale, the response of ectothermic animals was not consistent with expectations based on shifts in the mean annual temperature. Irrespective of the reasons for the overshooting of the response of the insects, these shifts lead to reorganizations in the composition of assemblages with consequences for ecosystem processes.

  18. Lanthanide shift reagents, binding, shift mechanisms and exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, J.W.M. de

    1977-01-01

    Paramagnetic lanthanide shift reagents, when added to a solution of a substrate, induce shifts in the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrum of the substrate molecules. The induced shifts contain information about the structure of the shift reagent substrate complex. The structural information, however, may be difficult to extract because of the following effects: (1) different complexes between shift reagent and substrate may be present in solution, e.g. 1:1 and 1:2 complexes, and the shift observed is a weighed average of the shifts of the substrate nuclei in the different complexes; (2) the Fermi contact interaction, arising from the spin density at the nucleus, contributes to the induced shift; (3) chemical exchange effects may complicate the NMR spectrum. In this thesis, the results of an investigation into the influence of these effects on the NMR spectra of solutions containing a substrate and LSR are presented. The equations describing the pseudo contact and the Fermi contact shift are derived. In addition, it is shown how the modified Bloch equations describing the effect of the chemical exchange processes occurring in the systems studied can be reduced to the familiar equations for a two-site exchange case. The binding of mono- and bifunctional ethers to the shift reagent are reported. An analysis of the induced shifts is given. Finally, the results of the experiments performed to study the exchange behavior of dimethoxyethane and heptafluorodimethyloctanedionato ligands are presented

  19. Progressive changes in the Western English Channel foster a reorganization in the plankton food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reygondeau, Gabriel; Molinero, J.C.; Coombs, S.

    2015-01-01

    . (2013) drive a profound restructuration of the plankton community modifying the phenology and the dominance of key planktonic groups including fish larvae. Consequently, the slow but deep modifications detected in the plankton community highlight a climate driven ecosystem shift in the Western English...

  20. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Scenarios provide useful insight into the complex factors that drive ecosystem change, estimating the magnitude of regional...

  1. The shift in windpower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gipe, P.

    1992-01-01

    Despite new production records, the near-term market for new windpower projects in the US remains bleak. Congressional incentives and project proposals in the mid-1990s offer promise, but for now most development has shifted to Europe. During 1992 and 1993 the largest wind projects developed by US companies will not be in the US, but in the United Kingdom and Spain. Indeed, most of the US's windpower industry is going abroad, establishing offices overseas. This move toward Europe comes as little surprise. New project development for US firms has faltered at home while the European market has burgeoned. The topics of the article include the move to Europe, a reduction in California's share of producing wind power plants, a rise in Europe's share of producing wind power plants, the future market for wind power in the US, and reawakening California's market

  2. Payments for Ecosystem Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chan, Kai M.A; Anderson, Emily K.; Chapman, Mollie

    2017-01-01

    Payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs are one prominent strategy to address economic externalities of resource extraction and commodity production, improving both social and ecological outcomes. But do PES and related incentive programs achieve that lofty goal? Along with considerable...

  3. Ecosystem Analysis Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgess, R.L.

    1978-01-01

    Progress is reported on the following research programs: analysis and modeling of ecosystems; EDFB/IBP data center; biome analysis studies; land/water interaction studies; and computer programs for development of models

  4. Revisiting software ecosystems research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    ‘Software ecosystems’ is argued to first appear as a concept more than 10 years ago and software ecosystem research started to take off in 2010. We conduct a systematic literature study, based on the most extensive literature review in the field up to date, with two primarily aims: (a) to provide...... an updated overview of the field and (b) to document evolution in the field. In total, we analyze 231 papers from 2007 until 2014 and provide an overview of the research in software ecosystems. Our analysis reveals a field that is rapidly growing both in volume and empirical focus while becoming more mature...... from evolving. We propose means for future research and the community to address them. Finally, our analysis shapes the view of the field having evolved outside the existing definitions of software ecosystems and thus propose the update of the definition of software ecosystems....

  5. Pesticide Pollution in Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    İlter, Hüseyin; Kurt, Burak; Ötegen, Volkan Recai; Akbaba, Muhsin

    2018-01-01

    Pesticidepollution affects both aquatic and soil ecosystems. Factors that promotepesticide pollution include drainage patterns, properties of the pesticide,rainfall, microbial activity, treatment surface and rate of application.Pesticides are able to move from one ecosystem to another through processessuch as transfer (mobility) and transformation (degradation). Transfer mayoccur through surface runoff, vapourization to atmosphere, sorption (adsorp‐tion/desorp-tion), plant uptakeor soil water...

  6. Repeated climate-linked host shifts have promoted diversification in a temperate clade of leaf-mining flies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Isaac S; Mitter, Charles; Scheffer, Sonja J

    2009-10-27

    A central but little-tested prediction of "escape and radiation" coevolution is that colonization of novel, chemically defended host plant clades accelerates insect herbivore diversification. That theory, in turn, exemplifies one side of a broader debate about the relative influence on clade dynamics of intrinsic (biotic) vs. extrinsic (physical-environmental) forces. Here, we use a fossil-calibrated molecular chronogram to compare the effects of a major biotic factor (repeated shift to a chemically divergent host plant clade) and a major abiotic factor (global climate change) on the macroevolutionary dynamics of a large Cenozoic radiation of phytophagous insects, the leaf-mining fly genus Phytomyza (Diptera: Agromyzidae). We find one of the first statistically supported examples of consistently elevated net diversification accompanying shift to new plant clades. In contrast, we detect no significant direct effect on diversification of major global climate events in the early and late Oligocene. The broader paleoclimatic context strongly suggests, however, that climate change has at times had a strong indirect influence through its effect on the biotic environment. Repeated rapid Miocene radiation of these flies on temperate herbaceous asterids closely corresponds to the dramatic, climate-driven expansion of seasonal, open habitats.

  7. Adaptation approaches for conserving ecosystems services and biodiversity in dynamic landscapes caused by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oswald J. Schmitz; Anne M. Trainor

    2014-01-01

    Climate change stands to cause animal species to shift their geographic ranges. This will cause ecosystems to become reorganized across landscapes as species migrate into and out of specific locations with attendant impacts on values and services that ecosystems provide to humans. Conservation in an era of climate change needs to ensure that landscapes are resilient by...

  8. Direct and terrestrial vegetation-mediated effects of environmental change on aquatic ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky A. Ball; John S. Kominoski; Heather E. Adams; Stuart E. Jones; Evan S. Kane; Terrance D. Loecke; Wendy M. Mahaney; Jason P. Martina; Chelse M. Prather; Todd M.P. Robinson; Christopher T. Solomon

    2010-01-01

    Global environmental changes have direct effects on aquatic ecosystems, as well as indirect effects through alterations of adjacent terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning. For example, shifts in terrestrial vegetation communities resulting from global changes can affect the quantity and quality of water, organic matter, and nutrient inputs to aquatic...

  9. The role of mosses in ecosystem succession and function in Alaska's boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merritt R. Turetsky; Michelle C. Mack; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; Jennifer W. Harden

    2010-01-01

    Shifts in moss communities may affect the resilience of boreal ecosystems to a changing climate because of the role of moss species in regulating soil climate and biogeochemical cycling. Here, we use long-term data analysis and literature synthesis to examine the role of moss in ecosystem succession, productivity, and decomposition. In Alaskan forests, moss abundance...

  10. Drivers of treeline shift in different European mountains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cudlín, Pavel; Klopčič, M.; Tognetti, R.; Máliš, F.; Alados, C. L.; Bebi, P.; Grunewald, K.; Zhiyanski, M.; Andonowski, V.; La Porta, N.; Bratanova-Doncheva, S.; Kachaunová, E.; Edwards-Jonášová, Magda; Ninot, J. M.; Rigling, A.; Hofgaard, A.; Hlásný, T.; Skalák, Petr; Wielgolaski, F. E.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 73, 1-2 (2017), s. 135-150 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠk(CZ) LD14039 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Vegetation zone shift * Climate change * Climate models * Treeline ecotone * European mountains * Ecosystem services Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016

  11. Novel urban ecosystems, biodiversity, and conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowarik, Ingo

    2011-01-01

    With increasing urbanization the importance of cities for biodiversity conservation grows. This paper reviews the ways in which biodiversity is affected by urbanization and discusses the consequences of different conservation approaches. Cities can be richer in plant species, including in native species, than rural areas. Alien species can lead to both homogenization and differentiation among urban regions. Urban habitats can harbor self-sustaining populations of rare and endangered native species, but cannot replace the complete functionality of (semi-)natural remnants. While many conservation approaches tend to focus on such relict habitats and native species in urban settings, this paper argues for a paradigm shift towards considering the whole range of urban ecosystems. Although conservation attitudes may be challenged by the novelty of some urban ecosystems, which are often linked to high numbers of nonnative species, it is promising to consider their associated ecosystem services, social benefits, and possible contribution to biodiversity conservation. - Highlights: → This paper reviews biotic responses to urbanization and urban conservation approaches. → Cities may be rich in both native and nonnative species. → Urban habitats cannot replace the functionality of natural remnants. → However, even novel urban habitats may harbour rare and endangered species. → Conservation approaches should consider the perspective of novel urban ecosystems. - This paper reviews the ways in which biodiversity is affected by urbanization and argues for expanding urban conservation approaches.

  12. Network Skewness Measures Resilience in Lake Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langdon, P. G.; Wang, R.; Dearing, J.; Zhang, E.; Doncaster, P.; Yang, X.; Yang, H.; Dong, X.; Hu, Z.; Xu, M.; Yanjie, Z.; Shen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in ecosystem resilience defy straightforward quantification from biodiversity metrics, which ignore influences of community structure. Naturally self-organized network structures show positive skewness in the distribution of node connections. Here we test for skewness reduction in lake diatom communities facing anthropogenic stressors, across a network of 273 lakes in China containing 452 diatom species. Species connections show positively skewed distributions in little-impacted lakes, switching to negative skewness in lakes associated with human settlement, surrounding land-use change, and higher phosphorus concentration. Dated sediment cores reveal a down-shifting of network skewness as human impacts intensify, and reversal with recovery from disturbance. The appearance and degree of negative skew presents a new diagnostic for quantifying system resilience and impacts from exogenous forcing on ecosystem communities.

  13. Mobile Innovations in the Education Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Kim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shares macro-level perspectives drawn from business and engineering on the widespread efforts to bring innovation to education ecosystems. Significant shifts are occurring in the education marketplace: from content delivery technologies to video capturing and processing technologies. The changes involve a combination of large corporations and small innovative start-ups, for example, there is increased emphasis on engineering approaches to the integration of pedagogy and learning analytics into online education systems, more marketplace-based companies are surfacing, and global edupreneurs are building an array of skill-based training and workforce ecosystems. In short, it is highly predictable that the ways people acquire knowledge and learn new skills, evaluate competencies, and secure jobs will change drastically in the future.

  14. Monetary accounting of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.; Edens, Bram; Schröter, Matthias; Hein, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting aims to provide a better understanding of ecosystem contributions to the economy in a spatially explicit way. Ecosystem accounting monitors ecosystem services and measures their monetary value using exchange values consistent with the System of National Accounts (SNA). We

  15. Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

  16. Chemical shift imaging: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brateman, L.

    1986-01-01

    Chemical shift is the phenomenon that is seen when an isotope possessing a nuclear magnetic dipole moment resonates at a spectrum of resonance frequencies in a given magnetic field. These resonance frequencies, or chemical shifts, depend on the chemical environments of particular nuclei. Mapping the spatial distribution of nuclei associated with a particular chemical shift (e.g., hydrogen nuclei associated with water molecules or with lipid groups) is called chemical shift imaging. Several techniques of proton chemical shift imaging that have been applied in vivo are presented, and their clinical findings are reported and summarized. Acquiring high-resolution spectra for large numbers of volume elements in two or three dimensions may be prohibitive because of time constraints, but other methods of imaging lipid of water distributions (i.e., selective excitation, selective saturation, or variations in conventional magnetic resonance imaging pulse sequences) can provide chemical shift information. These techniques require less time, but they lack spectral information. Since fat deposition seen by chemical shift imaging may not be demonstrated by conventional magnetic resonance imaging, certain applications of chemical shift imaging, such as in the determination of fatty liver disease, have greater diagnostic utility than conventional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, edge artifacts caused by chemical shift effects can be eliminated by certain selective methods of data acquisition employed in chemical shift imaging

  17. Perceived shift. South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coovadia, H

    1998-01-01

    This speech challenges the global community to commit to reducing HIV/AIDS in Durban, South Africa, where 1 in 4 adults is infected with the virus. A commitment of resources and energy would show good faith in fairness, generate unstoppable momentum in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS, provide a genuine renewal in the war against this disease, and set an example for other low income, resource poor, and HIV-epidemic countries. In 2000, the 13th Annual International AIDS Conference will be suitably located in Durban in a region with the highest rates of HIV/AIDS. The 1998 UNAIDS report states that 70% of those infected with HIV (21 million) are in Africa. A shift in program effort and political will would mark a turning point in the war against AIDS. There are four "P's" behind prevention and control of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: politicians, people, private sector, and programs. It is suggested that next year's conference should include political will that will become unshakable. Budgets need to be realistic. People should have unquestionable tolerance, acceptance, and generosity. Community organizations should be strengthened. Discrimination should be stopped. Science needs to be advanced. The private sector's involvement should be meaningful and supportive. Programs should be appropriate, affordable, and accessible. Many gaps need to be bridged and many people need to enlist their aid. The author urges that conference participants remember the afflicted poor and plan for a rebirth and renewal of hope.

  18. Shifting environmental baselines in the Red Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, A R G; Ghazi, S J; Tkaczynski, P J; Venkatachalam, A J; Santillan, A; Pancho, T; Metcalfe, R; Saunders, J

    2014-01-15

    The Red Sea is among the world's top marine biodiversity hotspots. We re-examined coastal ecosystems at sites surveyed during the 1980s using the same methodology. Coral cover increased significantly towards the north, mirroring the reverse pattern for mangroves and other sedimentary ecosystems. Latitudinal patterns are broadly consistent across both surveys and with results from independent studies. Coral cover showed greatest change, declining significantly from a median score of 4 (1000-9999 m(2)) to 2 (10-99m(2)) per quadrat in 2010/11. This may partly reflect impact from coastal construction, which was evident at 40% of sites and has significantly increased in magnitude over 30 years. Beach oil has significantly declined, but shore debris has increased significantly. Although substantial, levels are lower than at some remote ocean atolls. While earlier reports have suggested that the Red Sea is generally healthy, shifting environmental baselines are evident from the current study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluating ecosystem services provided by non-native species: an experimental test in California grasslands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Stein

    Full Text Available The concept of ecosystem services--the benefits that nature provides to human's society--has gained increasing attention over the past decade. Increasing global abiotic and biotic change, including species invasions, is threatening the secure delivery of these ecosystem services. Efficient evaluation methods of ecosystem services are urgently needed to improve our ability to determine management strategies and restoration goals in face of these new emerging ecosystems. Considering a range of multiple ecosystem functions may be a useful way to determine such strategies. We tested this framework experimentally in California grasslands, where large shifts in species composition have occurred since the late 1700's. We compared a suite of ecosystem functions within one historic native and two non-native species assemblages under different grazing intensities to address how different species assemblages vary in provisioning, regulatory and supporting ecosystem services. Forage production was reduced in one non-native assemblage (medusahead. Cultural ecosystem services, such as native species diversity, were inherently lower in both non-native assemblages, whereas most other services were maintained across grazing intensities. All systems provided similar ecosystem services under the highest grazing intensity treatment, which simulated unsustainable grazing intensity. We suggest that applying a more comprehensive ecosystem framework that considers multiple ecosystem services to evaluate new emerging ecosystems is a valuable tool to determine management goals and how to intervene in a changing ecosystem.

  20. Evaluating ecosystem services provided by non-native species: an experimental test in California grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Claudia; Hallett, Lauren M; Harpole, W Stanley; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-01-01

    The concept of ecosystem services--the benefits that nature provides to human's society--has gained increasing attention over the past decade. Increasing global abiotic and biotic change, including species invasions, is threatening the secure delivery of these ecosystem services. Efficient evaluation methods of ecosystem services are urgently needed to improve our ability to determine management strategies and restoration goals in face of these new emerging ecosystems. Considering a range of multiple ecosystem functions may be a useful way to determine such strategies. We tested this framework experimentally in California grasslands, where large shifts in species composition have occurred since the late 1700's. We compared a suite of ecosystem functions within one historic native and two non-native species assemblages under different grazing intensities to address how different species assemblages vary in provisioning, regulatory and supporting ecosystem services. Forage production was reduced in one non-native assemblage (medusahead). Cultural ecosystem services, such as native species diversity, were inherently lower in both non-native assemblages, whereas most other services were maintained across grazing intensities. All systems provided similar ecosystem services under the highest grazing intensity treatment, which simulated unsustainable grazing intensity. We suggest that applying a more comprehensive ecosystem framework that considers multiple ecosystem services to evaluate new emerging ecosystems is a valuable tool to determine management goals and how to intervene in a changing ecosystem.

  1. Dimensions of ecosystem theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, R.V.; Reichle, D.E.

    1979-01-01

    Various dimensions of ecosystem structure and behavior that seem to develop from the ubiquitous phenomena of system growth and persistence were studied. While growth and persistence attributes of ecosystems may appear to be simplistic phenomena upon which to base a comprehensive ecosystem theory, these same attributes have been fundamental to the theoretical development of other biological disciplines. These attributes were explored at a hierarchical level in a self-organizing system, and adaptive system strategies that result were analyzed. Previously developed causative relations (Reichle et al., 1975c) were examined, their theoretical implications expounded upon, and the assumptions tested with data from a variety of forest types. The conclusions are not a theory in themselves, but a state of organization of concepts contributing towards a unifying theory, along the lines promulgated by Bray (1958). The inferences drawn rely heavily upon data from forested ecosystems of the world, and have yet to be validated against data from a much more diverse range of ecosystem types. Not all of the interpretations are logically tight - there is room for other explanations, which it is hoped will provide fruitful grounds for further speculation

  2. Forest restoration, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aerts Raf

    2011-11-01

    ecosystem functioning context, but it also highlights that much remains to be understood, especially regarding the relation between forest functioning on the one side and genetic diversity and above-ground-below-ground species associations on the other. The strong emphasis of the BEF-approach on functional rather than taxonomic diversity may also be the beginning of a paradigm shift in restoration ecology, increasing the tolerance towards allochthonous species.

  3. Forest restoration, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Raf; Honnay, Olivier

    2011-11-24

    Globally, forests cover nearly one third of the land area and they contain over 80% of terrestrial biodiversity. Both the extent and quality of forest habitat continue to decrease and the associated loss of biodiversity jeopardizes forest ecosystem functioning and the ability of forests to provide ecosystem services. In the light of the increasing population pressure, it is of major importance not only to conserve, but also to restore forest ecosystems. Ecological restoration has recently started to adopt insights from the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) perspective. Central is the focus on restoring the relation between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here we provide an overview of important considerations related to forest restoration that can be inferred from this BEF-perspective. Restoring multiple forest functions requires multiple species. It is highly unlikely that species-poor plantations, which may be optimal for above-ground biomass production, will outperform species diverse assemblages for a combination of functions, including overall carbon storage and control over water and nutrient flows. Restoring stable forest functions also requires multiple species. In particular in the light of global climatic change scenarios, which predict more frequent extreme disturbances and climatic events, it is important to incorporate insights from the relation between biodiversity and stability of ecosystem functioning into forest restoration projects. Rather than focussing on species per se, focussing on functional diversity of tree species assemblages seems appropriate when selecting tree species for restoration. Finally, also plant genetic diversity and above - below-ground linkages should be considered during the restoration process, as these likely have prominent but until now poorly understood effects at the level of the ecosystem. The BEF-approach provides a useful framework to evaluate forest restoration in an ecosystem functioning context, but

  4. Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

    2018-03-14

    To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of Science TM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

  5. Trait-based approaches for understanding microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krause, S.; Le Roux, X.; Niklaus, P.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Lennon, J.T.; Bertilsson, S.A.; Grossart, H.P.; Philippot, L.; Bodelier, P.L.E.

    2014-01-01

    In ecology, biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has seen a shift in perspective from taxonomy to function in the last two decades, with successful application of trait-based approaches. This shift offers opportunities for a deeper mechanistic understanding of the role of biodiversity

  6. Quantized beam shifts in graphene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-10-08

    We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α2. We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

  7. Working group 7: Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verheyen, R.

    1976-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the environmental impact of nuclear power plants. The effects of ionizing radiations, of the thermal and chemical pollution on aquatic ecosystems as well as on terrestrial ecosystems have been estimated. After a general survey of such effects and their interaction, practical conclusions in regard to determined areas such as Meuse-Escaut marine and the coast have been drawn. The contamination effects of food chains have been evaluted under deliberately pessimistic conditions with regard to the choice of the radionuclide as well as of concentration factors. Following the biodegradation conditions of the surface waters, criteria for the quality of the aquatic ecosystems have been established. Finally, attention has been paid on certain factors affecting the site selection especially within the frame of the nature conservation. The effects of cooling towers have been also considered. (G.C.)

  8. Sea Ice Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigo, Kevin R.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth. The liquid brine fraction of the ice matrix is home to a diverse array of organisms, ranging from tiny archaea to larger fish and invertebrates. These organisms can tolerate high brine salinity and low temperature but do best when conditions are milder. Thriving ice algal communities, generally dominated by diatoms, live at the ice/water interface and in recently flooded surface and interior layers, especially during spring, when temperatures begin to rise. Although protists dominate the sea ice biomass, heterotrophic bacteria are also abundant. The sea ice ecosystem provides food for a host of animals, with crustaceans being the most conspicuous. Uneaten organic matter from the ice sinks through the water column and feeds benthic ecosystems. As sea ice extent declines, ice algae likely contribute a shrinking fraction of the total amount of organic matter produced in polar waters.

  9. Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is undergoing major changes in many of its fundamental physical constituents, from a shift from multi- to first-year ice, shorter ice-covered periods, increasing freshwater runoff and surface stratification, to warming and alteration in the distribution of water masses....... These changes have important impacts on the chemical and biological processes that are at the root of marine food webs, influencing their structure, function and biodiversity. Here we summarise current knowledge on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and provide an overview of fundamental factors...... that structure ecosystem biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean. We also discuss climateassociated effects on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and discuss implications for the functioning of Arctic marine food webs. Based on the complexity and regional character of Arctic ecosystem reponses...

  10. Habitat-mediated facilitation and counteracting ecosystem engineering interactively influence ecosystem responses to disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eklöf, Johan S; van der Heide, Tjisse; Donadi, Serena; van der Zee, Els M; O'Hara, Robert; Eriksson, Britas Klemens

    2011-01-01

    Recovery of an ecosystem following disturbance can be severely hampered or even shift altogether when a point disturbance exceeds a certain spatial threshold. Such scale-dependent dynamics may be caused by preemptive competition, but may also result from diminished self-facilitation due to weakened ecosystem engineering. Moreover, disturbance can facilitate colonization by engineering species that alter abiotic conditions in ways that exacerbate stress on the original species. Consequently, establishment of such counteracting engineers might reduce the spatial threshold for the disturbance, by effectively slowing recovery and increasing the risk for ecosystem shifts to alternative states. We tested these predictions in an intertidal mudflat characterized by a two-state mosaic of hummocks (humps exposed during low tide) dominated by the sediment-stabilizing seagrass Zostera noltii) and hollows (low-tide waterlogged depressions dominated by the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina). In contrast to expectations, seagrass recolonized both natural and experimental clearings via lateral expansion and seemed unaffected by both clearing size and lugworm addition. Near the end of the growth season, however, an additional disturbance (most likely waterfowl grazing and/or strong hydrodynamics) selectively impacted recolonizing seagrass in the largest (1 m(2)) clearings (regardless of lugworm addition), and in those medium (0.25 m(2)) clearings where lugworms had been added nearly five months earlier. Further analyses showed that the risk for the disturbance increased with hollow size, with a threshold of 0.24 m(2). Hollows of that size were caused by seagrass removal alone in the largest clearings, and by a weaker seagrass removal effect exacerbated by lugworm bioturbation in the medium clearings. Consequently, a sufficiently large disturbance increased the vulnerability of recolonizing seagrass to additional disturbance by weakening seagrass engineering effects (sediment

  11. Consumer-driven nutrient dynamics in freshwater ecosystems: from individuals to ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Carla L; Capps, Krista A; Rugenski, Amanda T; Vanni, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    The role of animals in modulating nutrient cycling [hereafter, consumer-driven nutrient dynamics (CND)] has been accepted as an important influence on both community structure and ecosystem function in aquatic systems. Yet there is great variability in the influence of CND across species and ecosystems, and the causes of this variation are not well understood. Here, we review and synthesize the mechanisms behind CND in fresh waters. We reviewed 131 articles on CND published between 1973 and 1 June 2015. The rate of new publications in CND has increased from 1.4 papers per year during 1973-2002 to 7.3 per year during 2003-2015. The majority of investigations are in North America with many concentrating on fish. More recent studies have focused on animal-mediated nutrient excretion rates relative to nutrient demand and indirect impacts (e.g. decomposition). We identified several mechanisms that influence CND across levels of biological organization. Factors affecting the stoichiometric plasticity of consumers, including body size, feeding history and ontogeny, play an important role in determining the impact of individual consumers on nutrient dynamics and underlie the stoichiometry of CND across time and space. The abiotic characteristics of an ecosystem affect the net impact of consumers on ecosystem processes by influencing consumer metabolic processes (e.g. consumption and excretion/egestion rates), non-CND supply of nutrients and ecosystem nutrient demand. Furthermore, the transformation and transport of elements by populations and communities of consumers also influences the flow of energy and nutrients across ecosystem boundaries. This review highlights that shifts in community composition or biomass of consumers and eco-evolutionary underpinnings can have strong effects on the functional role of consumers in ecosystem processes, yet these are relatively unexplored aspects of CND. Future research should evaluate the value of using species traits and abiotic

  12. Coral reef ecosystem

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Wafar, M.V.M.; Wafar, S.

    3 Coral Reef Ecosystem M. V M. Wafar 1 and Sayeeda Wafar Among the various inland and coastal wetlands, it is probably the coral reef ecosystem that has generated the greatest sc-ientific and economic interest and received in the recent years a world... they play in global biogeochemical cycles as sinks for atmo spheric carbon dioxide. The economic potential includes c-aleium car bonate, food and ornamental fishes, bio-molecules, tourism, molluscan shells, macro-algae, a range of other minor products...

  13. Work shifts in Emergency Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Recupero

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Emergency Medicine is known as a high stress specialty. The adverse effect of constantly rotating shifts is the single most important reason given for premature attrition from the field. In this work problems tied with night shift work will be taken into account and some solutions to reduce the impact of night work on the emergency physicians will be proposed.

  14. Estimating ecosystem carbon change in the Conterminous United States based on 40 years of land-use change and disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Rayfield, B.; Liu, J.; Sherba, J.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Wilson, T. S.; Zhu, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Since 1970, the combined changes in land use, land management, climate, and natural disturbances have dramatically altered land cover in the United States, resulting in the potential for significant changes in terrestrial carbon storage and flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Processes including urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, and forest management have had impacts - both positive and negative - on the amount of natural vegetation, the age structure of forests, and the amount of impervious cover. Anthropogenic change coupled with climate-driven changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly the frequency and severity of wildfire, together determine the spatio-temporal patterns of land change and contribute to changing ecosystem carbon dynamics. Quantifying this effect and its associated uncertainties is fundamental to developing a rigorous and transparent carbon monitoring and assessment programs. However, large-scale systematic inventories of historical land change and their associated uncertainties are sparse. To address this need, we present a newly developed modeling framework, the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). The LUCAS model integrates readily available high quality, empirical land-change data into a stochastic space-time simulation model representing land change feedbacks on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We applied the LUCAS model to estimate regional scale changes in carbon storage, atmospheric flux, and net biome production in 84 ecological regions of the conterminous United States for the period 1970-2015. The model was parameterized using a newly available set of high resolution (30 m) land-change data, compiled from Landsat remote sensing imagery, including estimates of uncertainty. Carbon flux parameters for each ecological region were derived from the IBIS dynamic global vegetation model with full carbon cycle accounting. This paper presents our initial findings describing regional and

  15. Metabolic impact of shift work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimberg, Ioná Zalcman; Fernandes Junior, Silvio A; Crispim, Cibele Aparecida; Tufik, Sergio; de Mello, Marco Tulio

    2012-01-01

    In developing countries, shift work represents a considerable contingent workforce. Recently, studies have shown that overweight and obesity are more prevalent in shift workers than day workers. In addition, shift work has been associated with a higher propensity for the development of many metabolic disorders, such as insulin resistance, diabetes, dislipidemias and metabolic syndrome. Recent data have pointed that decrease of the sleep time, desynchronization of circadian rhythm and alteration of environmental aspects are the main factors related to such problems. Shortened or disturbed sleep is among the most common health-related effects of shift work. The plausible physiological and biological mechanisms are related to the activation of the autonomic nervous system, inflammation, changes in lipid and glucose metabolism, and related changes in the risk for atherosclerosis, metabolic syndrome, and type II diabetes. The present review will discuss the impact of shift work on obesity and metabolic disorders and how disruption of sleep and circadian misalignment may contribute to these metabolic dysfunctions.

  16. Adaptive management for ecosystem services (j/a) | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with manage

  17. Formation of Service Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonas, Julia M.; Sörhammar, David; Satzger, Gerhard

    proposition; a value proposition (e.g., a business opportunity or a business idea) may form the starting point for actors to collaborate and integrate resources in order realize the value proposition. The initiator of a service ecosystem could for example be an actor (Mark Zuckerberg), resources (website...

  18. Governing ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, René; Selnes, Trond; Verweij, Pita

    2016-01-01

    The TEEB approach to the use of ecosystem services has found its way to policy as a means to biodiversity conservation and greening of the economy. In this paper we analysed the uptake of the TEEB approach at national and local levels by applying a framework that revolves around the problem,

  19. Governance of Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Primmer, Eeva; Jokinen, Pekka; Blicharska, Malgorzata; Barton, David N.; Bugter, Rob; Potschin, Marion

    2015-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies justified with science and intrinsic value arguments have produced disappointing outcomes, and the need for conservation is now being additionally justified with the concept of ecosystem services. However, little, if any empirical attention is paid to ways in

  20. The Ecosystem Engineer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walles, B.; Salvador de Paiva, J.; Van Prooijen, B.; Ysebaert, T.; Smaal, A.C.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers that inhabit coastal and estuarine environments, such as reef building oysters, do not only stabilise the sediment within their reefs, but their influence might also extend far outside their reefs, affecting tidal flat morphology and protecting the surrounding soft-sediment

  1. Shelf-sea ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, J J

    1980-01-01

    An analysis of the food chain dynamics of the Oregon, Alaskan, and New York shelves is made with respect to differences in physical forcing of these ecosystems. The world's shelves are 10% of the area of the ocean, yield 99% of the world's fish catch, and may be a major sink in the global CO/sub 2/ budget.

  2. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G W

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.

  3. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Dirnböck

    Full Text Available Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+ together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.

  4. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P.; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G. W.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered. PMID:28898262

  5. [Urban ecosystem services: A review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Qi-zheng; Huang, Gan-lin; Wu, Jian-guo

    2015-04-01

    Maintaining and improving ecosystem services in urban areas and human well-being are essential for sustainable development and therefore constitute an important topic in urban ecology. Here we reviewed studies on ecosystem services in urban areas. Based on the concept and classification of urban ecosystem services, we summarized characteristics of urban ecosystem services, including the human domination, high demand of ecosystem services in urban areas, spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services supply and demand in urban areas, multi-services of urban green infrastructures, the socio-economic dimension of ecosystem services supply and ecosystem disservices in urban areas. Among different urban ecosystem services, the regulating service and cultural service are particularly indispensable to benefit human health. We pointed out that tradeoffs among different types of ecosystem services mostly occur between supportive service and cultural service, as well as regulating service and cultural service. In particular, we emphasized the relationship between landscape design (i.e. green infrastructure) and ecosystem services supply. Finally, we discussed current gaps to link urban ecosystem services studies to landscape design and management and pointed out several directions for future research in urban ecosystem services.

  6. Spatial characterisation of the Benguela ecosystem for ecosystem ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three countries of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME), namely Angola, Namibia and South Africa, have committed to implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM) including an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) in the region, to put in practice the principles of sustainable development in ...

  7. El Niño effects on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmgren, M; Scheffer, M; Ezcurra, E; Gutiérrez, J R.; Mohren, G M.J.

    2001-02-01

    New studies are showing that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has major implications for the functioning of different ecosystems, ranging from deserts to tropical rain forests. ENSO-induced pulses of enhanced plant productivity can cascade upward through the food web invoking unforeseen feedbacks, and can cause open dryland ecosystems to shift to permanent woodlands. These insights suggest that the predicted change in extreme climatic events resulting from global warming could profoundly alter biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Our increasing ability to predict El Niño effects can be used to enhance management strategies for the restoration of degraded ecosystems.

  8. Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2015-01-01

    Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

  9. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Population

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Population data sets provide baseline population information as one of the drivers of ecosystem change. The data helped in...

  10. Simultaneous shifts in elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids of Emiliania huxleyi in response to environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Rong; Ismar, Stefanie M. H.; Sommer, Ulrich; Zhao, Meixun

    2018-02-01

    Climate-driven changes in environmental conditions have significant and complex effects on marine ecosystems. Variability in phytoplankton elements and biochemicals can be important for global ocean biogeochemistry and ecological functions, while there is currently limited understanding on how elements and biochemicals respond to the changing environments in key coccolithophore species such as Emiliania huxleyi. We investigated responses of elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids (FAs) in a strain of E. huxleyi under three temperatures (12, 18 and 24 °C), three N : P supply ratios (molar ratios 10:1, 24:1 and 63:1) and two pCO2 levels (560 and 2400 µatm). Overall, C : N : P stoichiometry showed the most pronounced response to N : P supply ratios, with high ratios of particulate organic carbon vs. particulate organic nitrogen (POC : PON) and low ratios of PON vs. particulate organic phosphorus (PON : POP) in low-N media, and high POC : POP and PON : POP in low-P media. The ratio of particulate inorganic carbon vs. POC (PIC : POC) and polyunsaturated fatty acid proportions strongly responded to temperature and pCO2, both being lower under high pCO2 and higher with warming. We observed synergistic interactions between warming and nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2) on elemental cellular contents and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) proportion in most cases, indicating the enhanced effect of warming under nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2). Our results suggest differential sensitivity of elements and FAs to the changes in temperature, nutrient availability and pCO2 in E. huxleyi, which is to some extent unique compared to non-calcifying algal classes. Thus, simultaneous changes of elements and FAs should be considered when predicting future roles of E. huxleyi in the biotic-mediated connection between biogeochemical cycles, ecological functions and climate change.

  11. Signatures of global warming and regional climate shift in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Roshin, R.P.; Narvekar, J.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Vivekanandan, E.

    productivity that is tightly-coupled with the climate-shift. 59 Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems- (2010) Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems- (2010) 60 61 Climate Change and Aquatic Ecosystems- (2010) Figure 4. Basin-averaged chlorophyll pigment... in the Arabian Sea. They also showed that the warming of winter after 1995 has affected the wheat production of India. In this paper we use the data presented by Prasanna Kumar et al. (2009) and analyze their results in the context of increased marine...

  12. Shifted Baselines Reduce Willingness to Pay for Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loren McClenachan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A loss of memory of past environmental degradation has resulted in shifted baselines, which may result in conservation and restoration goals that are less ambitious than if stakeholders had a full knowledge of ecosystem potential. However, the link between perception of baseline states and support for conservation planning has not been tested empirically. Here, we investigate how perceptions of change in coral reef ecosystems affect stakeholders' willingness to pay (WTP for the establishment of protected areas. Coral reefs are experiencing rapid, global change that is observable by the public, and therefore provide an ideal ecosystem to test links between beliefs about baseline states and willingness to support conservation. Our survey respondents perceived change to coral reef communities across six variables: coral abundance, fish abundance, fish diversity, fish size, sedimentation, and water pollution. Respondants who accurately perceived declines in reef health had significantly higher WTP for protected areas (US $256.80 vs. $102.50 per year, suggesting that shifted baselines may reduce engagement with conservation efforts. If WTP translates to engagement, this suggests that goals for restoration and recovery are likely to be more ambitious if the public is aware of long term change. Therefore, communicating the scope and depth of environmental problems is essential in engaging the public in conservation.

  13. The Coevolution of Digital Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    SungYong, Um

    2016-01-01

    Digital ecosystems are one of the most important strategic issues in the current digital economy. Digital ecosystems are dynamic and generative. They evolve as new firms join and as heterogeneous systems are integrated into other systems. These features digital ecosystems determine economic and technological success in the competition among…

  14. Promoting Transfer of Ecosystems Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yawen; Hmelo-Silver, Cindy E.; Jordan, Rebecca; Eberbach, Catherine; Sinha, Suparna

    2016-01-01

    This study examines to what extent students transferred their knowledge from a familiar aquatic ecosystem to an unfamiliar rainforest ecosystem after participating in a technology-rich inquiry curriculum. We coded students' drawings for components of important ecosystems concepts at pre- and posttest. Our analysis examined the extent to which each…

  15. Ecosystems in the Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louviere, Gregory

    2011-01-01

    Habitats, ecology and evolution are a few of the many metaphors commonly associated with the domain of biological ecosystems. Surprisingly, these and other similar biological metaphors are proving to be equally associated with a phenomenon known as digital ecosystems. Digital ecosystems make a direct connection between biological properties and…

  16. Drought effects on ecosystem functioning and interactions with CO2 and warming - results from CLIMAITE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Claus; Ibrom, Andreas; Linden, Leon G.; Selsted, Merete B.; Albert, Kristian R.; Kongstad, Jane; Andresen, Louise C.

    2010-05-01

    Current predictions indicate that, unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, atmospheric CO2 concentrations will double during the present century inducing an additional 1.4 to 5.8oC increase in mean global temperature, alterations in global and regional precipitation patterns, and increase the frequency and magnitude of severe weather events (e.g. droughts and floods). Such changes will have strong effects on the terrestrial ecosystems as CO2, temperature and water are main drivers in ecosystem processes. There is growing concern that climate driven changes in precipitation patterns and water availability will have significant effects on ecosystem processes and functioning, and in some regions may be the most influential climate change factor. Yet, it has received much less attention in recent climate change research relative to elevated CO2 and temperature. Furthermore, most precipitation experiments have focussed on water alone despite the fact that at least CO2 and temperature will change simultaneously and both of these factors will have direct or indirect effects on water status and use in the ecosystem. In the CLIMAITE project a Danish heathland has been exposed since 2005 to elevated CO2, temperature and extended drought in a full factorial experiment (Mikkelsen et al., 2008). The CO2 concentration in the canopy level is elevated by 50% by the Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) technique, temperature is elevated by 1-2 °C by the passive night time warming technique and summer drought is extended for 4-6 weeks by rain out shelters. The full factor combination mimics recent climate projections for Denmark 2075. Following the experiments, responses of major ecosystem processes and functioning is recorded. Drought generally leads to hypothesised reductions in most ecosystem processes during and shortly after the drought but on the short term, many of these processes also show a strong potential to recover during rewetting. Drought reduces

  17. Climatic drivers for multidecadal shifts in solute transport and methane production zones within a large peat basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Paul H.; Siegel, Donald I.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Reeve, Andrew S.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Corbett, J. Elizabeth; Dasgupta, Soumitri; Levy, Zeno

    2016-01-01

    Northern peatlands are an important source for greenhouse gases, but their capacity to produce methane remains uncertain under changing climatic conditions. We therefore analyzed a 43 year time series of the pore-water chemistry to determine if long-term shifts in precipitation altered the vertical transport of solutes within a large peat basin in northern Minnesota. These data suggest that rates of methane production can be finely tuned to multidecadal shifts in precipitation that drive the vertical penetration of labile carbon substrates within the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. Tritium and cation profiles demonstrate that only the upper meter of these peat deposits was flushed by downwardly moving recharge from 1965 to 1983 during a Transitional Dry-to-Moist Period. However, a shift to a moister climate after 1984 drove surface waters much deeper, largely flushing the pore waters of all bogs and fens to depths of 2 m. Labile carbon compounds were transported downward from the rhizosphere to the basal peat at this time producing a substantial enrichment of methane in Δ14C with respect to the solid-phase peat from 1991 to 2008. These data indicate that labile carbon substrates can fuel deep production zones of methanogenesis that more than doubled in thickness across this large peat basin after 1984. Moreover, the entire peat profile apparently has the capacity to produce methane from labile carbon substrates depending on climate-driven modes of solute transport. Future changes in precipitation may therefore play a central role in determining the source strength of peatlands in the global methane cycle.

  18. Explaining (Missing) Regulator Paradigm Shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wigger, Angela; Buch-Hansen, Hubert

    2014-01-01

    The global financial and economic crisis has prompted some scholars to suggest that a fundamental regulatory shift away from neoliberalism will take place – both in general and in the field of EU competition regulation. This paper shows that so far no radical break with the neoliberal type...... of competition regulation is heaving into sight. It sets out to explain this from the vantage point of a critical political economy perspective, which identifies the circumstances under which a crisis can result in a regulatory paradigm shift. Contrasting the current situation with the shift in EC/EU competition...... regulation after the crisis in the 1970s, the paper argues that the preconditions for a fundamental shift in this issue area are not present this time around. Several reasons account for this: the current crisis has been construed by economic and political elites as a crisis within and not of neoliberal...

  19. Marine Ecosystem Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasler, Berit; Ahtiainen, Heini; Hasselström, Linus

    MARECOS (Marine Ecosystem Services) er et tværfagligt studie, der har haft til formål at tilvejebringe information vedrørende kortlægning og værdisætning af økosystemtjenester, som kan anvendes i forbindelse med udformning af regulering på det marine område såvel nationalt, som regionalt og...

  20. The river ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Descy, J.P.; Lambinon, J.

    1984-01-01

    From the standpoint of the ecologist, a river is an ecosystem characterized by its biocoenosis, in dynamic equilibrium with the abiotic environment. This ecosystem can be envisaged at the structural level by examining its physical, chemical and biological properties, together with the relationships existing between these compartments. The biocoenotic structure of a river is relatively complex: it manifests, among other specific features, the presence of plankton communities which show marked space-time variations. The function of the river ecosystem can be approximated by a study of the relationships between the biotic and abiotic components: primary production, secondary production, recycling of organic matter, etc. Lotic environments are subject to frequent disturbance from various forms of man-made pollution: organic pollution, eutrophization, thermal pollution, mineral pollution, contamination by organic and mineral micropollutants, as well as by radionuclides, mechanical pollution and physical degradation. The biocoenotic effects of these forms of pollution may be evaluated, in particular, using biological indicators (bioindicators): these are either able to show the overall impact of the pollution on the biocoenosis or else they permit the detection and evaluation of certain pollutant forms. (author)

  1. Microplastic in Aquatic Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivleva, Natalia P; Wiesheu, Alexandra C; Niessner, Reinhard

    2017-02-06

    The contamination of marine and freshwater ecosystems with plastic, and especially with microplastic (MP), is a global ecological problem of increasing scientific concern. This has stimulated a great deal of research on the occurrence of MP, interaction of MP with chemical pollutants, the uptake of MP by aquatic organisms, and the resulting (negative) impact of MP. Herein, we review the major issues of MP in aquatic environments, with the principal aims 1) to characterize the methods applied for MP analysis (including sampling, processing, identification and quantification), indicate the most reliable techniques, and discuss the required further improvements; 2) to estimate the abundance of MP in marine/freshwater ecosystems and clarify the problems that hamper the comparability of such results; and 3) to summarize the existing literature on the uptake of MP by living organisms. Finally, we identify knowledge gaps, suggest possible strategies to assess environmental risks arising from MP, and discuss prospects to minimize MP abundance in aquatic ecosystems. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

  3. Characterizing the Danish telemedicine ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos; Hansen, Klaus Marius

    2013-01-01

    and interoperability issues, silo solutions, and lack of guidelines and standards. In this paper, we characterise the ecosystem evolved around the telemedicine services in Denmark and study the actors involved in this ecosystem. We establish a method for this study, where we define two actor roles and ways...... of characterizing actor contributions, and apply the method to the largest healthcare region of Denmark. Our findings reveal an ecosystem that is relatively closed to new actors, where the actors tend to be related to single telemedicine applications, the applications have low connectivity, and the most influential...... actors of the ecosystem can be characterised as both being beneficial and inhibitory to the ecosystem prosperity....

  4. Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisano, Masumi; Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

    2018-02-01

    Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  5. Ecosystem Management. A Management View

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

    The need for management of the marine ecosystem using a broad perspective has been recommended under a variety of names. This paper uses the term Ecosystem Management, which is seen as a convergence between the ecological idea of an organisational hierarchy and the idea of strategic planning...... with a planning hierarchy---with the ecosystem being the strategic planning level. Management planning requires, in order to establish a quantifiable means and ends chain, that the goals at the ecosystem level can be linked to operational levels; ecosystem properties must therefore be reducible to lower...... genetic relation. The population structure is below the ecosystem in terms of the planning level, and goals for the community's genetic structure cannot be meaningful defined without setting strategic goals at the ecosystem level for functional groups....

  6. Complex trophic interactions in kelp forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Danner, E.M.; Doak, D.F.; Konar, B.; Springer, A.M.; Steinberg, P.D.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, T.M.

    2004-01-01

    The distributions and abundances of species and populations change almost continuously. Understanding the processes responsible is perhaps ecology’s most fundamental challenge. Kelp-forest ecosystems in southwest Alaska have undergone several phase shifts between alga- and herbivore-dominated states in recent decades. Overhunting and recovery of sea otters caused the earlier shifts. Studies focusing on these changes demonstrate the importance of top-down forcing processes, a variety of indirect food-web interactions associated with the otter-urchin-kelp trophic cascade, and the role of food-chain length in the coevolution of defense and resistance in plants and their herbivores. This system unexpectedly shifted back to an herbivore-dominated state during the 1990s, because of a sea-otter population collapse that apparently was driven by increased predation by killer whales. Reasons for this change remain uncertain but seem to be linked to the whole-sale collapse of marine mammals in the North Pacific Ocean and southern Bering Sea. We hypothesize that killer whales sequentially "fished down" pinniped and sea-otter populations after their earlier prey, the great whales, were decimated by commercial whaling. The dynamics of kelp forests in southwest Alaska thus appears to have been influenced by an ecological chain reaction that encompassed numerous species and large scales of space and time.

  7. Developing micro-level urban ecosystem indicators for sustainability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dizdaroglu, Didem

    2015-01-01

    Sustainability assessment is increasingly being viewed as an important tool to aid in the shift towards sustainable urban ecosystems. An urban ecosystem is a dynamic system and requires regular monitoring and assessment through a set of relevant indicators. An indicator is a parameter which provides information about the state of the environment by producing a quantitative value. Indicator-based sustainability assessment needs to be considered on all spatial scales to provide efficient information of urban ecosystem sustainability. The detailed data is necessary to assess environmental change in urban ecosystems at local scale and easily transfer this information to the national and global scales. This paper proposes a set of key micro-level urban ecosystem indicators for monitoring the sustainability of residential developments. The proposed indicator framework measures the sustainability performance of urban ecosystem in 3 main categories including: natural environment, built environment, and socio-economic environment which are made up of 9 sub-categories, consisting of 23 indicators. This paper also describes theoretical foundations for the selection of each indicator with reference to the literature [tr

  8. Global climate change and the evolutionary ecology of ecosystem functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Oswald J

    2013-09-01

    Environmental warming due to global climate change is an important stressor that stands to alter organismal physiology and, ultimately, carbon cycling in ecosystems. Yet the theoretical framework for predicting warming effects on whole-ecosystem carbon balance by way of changes in organismal physiology remains rudimentary. This is because ecosystem science has yet to embrace principles of evolutionary ecology that offer the means to explain how environmental stress on organisms mediates ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here, using selected case studies and a theoretical model, I sketch out one framework that shows how increases in animal metabolic rates in response to thermal stress lead to phenotypically plastic shifts in animal elemental demand, from nitrogen-rich proteins that support production to carbon-rich soluble carbohydrates that support elevated energy demands. I further show how such a switch in resource selection alters the fate of carbon between atmospheric versus animal, plant, and soil pools. The framework shows that animals, despite having relatively low biomass representation in ecosystems, can nonetheless have disproportionately larger effects on carbon cycling in ecosystems whose effects are exacerbated by environmental stressors like climate warming. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  9. Nutrient enrichment, biodiversity loss, and consequent declines in ecosystem productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isbell, Forest; Reich, Peter B; Tilman, David; Hobbie, Sarah E; Polasky, Stephen; Binder, Seth

    2013-07-16

    Anthropogenic drivers of environmental change often have multiple effects, including changes in biodiversity, species composition, and ecosystem functioning. It remains unknown whether such shifts in biodiversity and species composition may, themselves, be major contributors to the total, long-term impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystem functioning. Moreover, although numerous experiments have shown that random losses of species impact the functioning of ecosystems, human-caused losses of biodiversity are rarely random. Here we use results from long-term grassland field experiments to test for direct effects of chronic nutrient enrichment on ecosystem productivity, and for indirect effects of enrichment on productivity mediated by resultant species losses. We found that ecosystem productivity decreased through time most in plots that lost the most species. Chronic nitrogen addition also led to the nonrandom loss of initially dominant native perennial C4 grasses. This loss of dominant plant species was associated with twice as great a loss of productivity per lost species than occurred with random species loss in a nearby biodiversity experiment. Thus, although chronic nitrogen enrichment initially increased productivity, it also led to loss of plant species, including initially dominant species, which then caused substantial diminishing returns from nitrogen fertilization. In contrast, elevated CO2 did not decrease grassland plant diversity, and it consistently promoted productivity over time. Our results support the hypothesis that the long-term impacts of anthropogenic drivers of environmental change on ecosystem functioning can strongly depend on how such drivers gradually decrease biodiversity and restructure communities.

  10. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K; Fenichel, Eli P

    2017-06-20

    We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio's performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth.

  11. Obscuring ecosystem function with application of the ecosystem services concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Markus J; Hall, Damon M; Feldpausch-Parker, Andrea M; Peterson, Tarla Rai

    2010-02-01

    Conservationists commonly have framed ecological concerns in economic terms to garner political support for conservation and to increase public interest in preserving global biodiversity. Beginning in the early 1980s, conservation biologists adapted neoliberal economics to reframe ecosystem functions and related biodiversity as ecosystem services to humanity. Despite the economic success of programs such as the Catskill/Delaware watershed management plan in the United States and the creation of global carbon exchanges, today's marketplace often fails to adequately protect biodiversity. We used a Marxist critique to explain one reason for this failure and to suggest a possible, if partial, response. Reframing ecosystem functions as economic services does not address the political problem of commodification. Just as it obscures the labor of human workers, commodification obscures the importance of the biota (ecosystem workers) and related abiotic factors that contribute to ecosystem functions. This erasure of work done by ecosystems impedes public understanding of biodiversity. Odum and Odum's radical suggestion to use the language of ecosystems (i.e., emergy or energy memory) to describe economies, rather than using the language of economics (i.e., services) to describe ecosystems, reverses this erasure of the ecosystem worker. Considering the current dominance of economic forces, however, implementing such solutions would require social changes similar in magnitude to those that occurred during the 1960s. Niklas Luhmann argues that such substantive, yet rapid, social change requires synergy among multiple societal function systems (i.e., economy, education, law, politics, religion, science), rather than reliance on a single social sphere, such as the economy. Explicitly presenting ecosystem services as discreet and incomplete aspects of ecosystem functions not only allows potential economic and environmental benefits associated with ecosystem services, but also

  12. Dynamics of a producer-freeloader ecosystem on the brink of collapse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Lei; Gore, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystems can undergo sudden shifts to undesirable states, but recent studies with simple single-species ecosystems have demonstrated that advance warning can be provided by the slowing down of population dynamics near a tipping point. However, it is unclear how this “critical slowing down” will manifest in ecosystems with strong interactions between their components. Here we probe the dynamics of an experimental producer-freeloader ecosystem as it approaches a catastrophic collapse. Surprisingly, the producer population grows in size as the environment deteriorates, highlighting that population size can be a misleading measure of ecosystem stability. By analyzing the oscillatory producer-freeloader dynamics for over 100 generations in multiple environmental conditions, we find that the collective ecosystem dynamics slow down as the tipping point is approached. Analysis of the coupled dynamics of interacting populations may therefore be necessary to provide advance warning of collapse in complex communities. PMID:24785661

  13. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery. Dorland

    2011-01-01

    The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

  14. ROLE OF REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM TO ANALYZE THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Mohommad Shahid; Shambhu Prasad Joshi

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is an inevitable process impacting the forest ecosystem. Various impacts like treeline shift, forest fires, and Species distribution are due to the effect of climate change. Green House Gases concentration in the atmosphere is increasing day by day due to anthropogenic activities. The pace of climate change is very alarming which will have the substantial impact on the forest ecosystem. Role of remote sensing and geographic information system in observing the forest ecosystem w...

  15. SAT in shift manager training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecuyer, F.

    1995-01-01

    EDF has improved the organization of the operation shift teams with the replacement of shift supervisor in shift manager function. The shift manager is not only responsible for tasks associated to plant operation (production), but he is also responsible for safety of these tasks and for management of shift team members. A job analysis of this new job position has been performed in order to design the training programme. It resulted in a 10-month training programme that includes 8 weeks in safety-related topics and 12 weeks in soft-skills related topics. The safety related training courses are mandatory, the other courses are optional courses depending on individual trainee needs. The training also includes the development of management competencies. During the 10 month period, each trainee develops an individual project that is evaluated by NPP manager. As well, as group project is undertaken by the trainees and overseen by a steering committee. The steering committee participates in the evaluation process and provides operational experience feedback to the trainee groups and to the overall programme

  16. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    , nutrients). With limited resources, these complementary experiments should be focused in high-priority ecosystems, with experimental treatments designed to address the major uncertainties in each system. Critical ecosystems, both managed and unmanaged, have been identified using the above criteria and key uncertainties in current understanding of ecosystem processes used to identify critical issues and experiments. The sizes of both the whole-ecosystem experiments and the multifactor experimental treatment units must be based on the sizes of the dominant organisms, the scale of major processes in each system, and the spatial heterogeneity of each system. For example, large-scale ecosystem manipulations in temperate forests should evaluate at a minimum CO{sub 2} and temperature and could be conducted on small, gauged catchments. The multifactor process experiments should address all major environmental driving variables, and the treatment units should be large enough to include multiple individuals of the major tree species. This approach represents a fundamental shift in the scale and integration of experimental ecosystem research: from the current small-scale, single- or two-factor experiments in simple natural or artificial ecosystems to highly coordinated, large-scale, replicated experiments in complex ecosystems, with multiple interacting factors being evaluated at two (or more) complementary levels of spatial scale and process resolution. These experiments will require an unprecedented long-term funding commitment and concentration of large-scale experimental research at a few major sites, with significant new investment in infrastructure to support large interdisciplinary teams of scientists.

  17. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

    2016-12-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  18. Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based approach. MD Smith, A Jarre. Abstract. This study explores the usefulness of a frame-based modelling approach in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, with four frames describing observed small pelagic fish dominance patterns. We modelled the ...

  19. Sustainable web ecosystem design

    CERN Document Server

    O'Toole, Greg

    2013-01-01

    This book is about the process of creating web-based systems (i.e., websites, content, etc.) that consider each of the parts, the modules, the organisms - binary or otherwise - that make up a balanced, sustainable web ecosystem. In the current media-rich environment, a website is more than a collection of relative html documents of text and images on a static desktop computer monitor. There is now an unlimited combination of screens, devices, platforms, browsers, locations, versions, users, and exabytes of data with which to interact. Written in a highly approachable, practical style, this boo

  20. Ecosystem approaches to human health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen N. Ole

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The promotion of human health must be embedded in the wider pursuit of ecosystem health. Interventions will be impaired if ecosystem-linked determinants of health are not taken into account. In the extreme case, if ecosystems lose their capacity for renewal, society will lose life support services. Essential features of ecosystem health are the capacity to maintain integrity and to achieve reasonable and sustainable human goals. An ecosystem approach to research and management must be transdisciplinary and assure participation of stakeholders. These requisites provide a means for science to better deal with the complexity of ecosystems, and for policy-makers and managers to establish and achieve reasonable societal goals. The ecosystem approach can determine links between human health and activities or events which disturb ecosystem state and function. Examples are: landscape disturbance in agriculture, mining, forestry, urbanization, and natural disasters. An understanding of these links can provide guidance for management interventions and policy options that promote human health. An ecosystem approach to management must be adaptive because of irreducible uncertainty in ecosystem function.

  1. shift

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    during the course of an academic year at the University of Witwatersrand following recent reforms in training and assessment methods Method: All fifth ... Assessment of Psychiatry in medical education at the. University of Witwatersrand ... or two examiners, to assess mainly clinical competence; multiple-choice questions ...

  2. Response shift en retrospectie. / Response shift in retrospect.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogstraten, J.; de Meijer, E.; Sprangers, M.

    1986-01-01

    Discusses the relationship between response shift and the concept of "artifact" with reference to W. K. Hofstee's (1986) arguments. The use of retrospective posttests instead of retrospective pretests is rejected, and some empirical approaches for assessing the impact of social desirability and

  3. Paradigm Shifts in Ophthalmic Diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebag, J; Sadun, Alfredo A; Pierce, Eric A

    2016-08-01

    Future advances in ophthalmology will see a paradigm shift in diagnostics from a focus on dysfunction and disease to better measures of psychophysical function and health. Practical methods to define genotypes will be increasingly important and non-invasive nanotechnologies are needed to detect molecular changes that predate histopathology. This is not a review nor meant to be comprehensive. Specific topics have been selected to illustrate the principles of important paradigm shifts that will influence the future of ophthalmic diagnostics. It is our impression that future evaluation of vision will go beyond visual acuity to assess ocular health in terms of psychophysical function. The definition of disease will incorporate genotype into what has historically been a phenotype-centric discipline. Non-invasive nanotechnologies will enable a paradigm shift from disease detection on a cellular level to a sub-cellular molecular level. Vision can be evaluated beyond visual acuity by measuring contrast sensitivity, color vision, and macular function, as these provide better insights into the impact of aging and disease. Distortions can be quantified and the psychophysical basis of vision can be better evaluated than in the past by designing tests that assess particular macular cell function(s). Advances in our understanding of the genetic basis of eye diseases will enable better characterization of ocular health and disease. Non-invasive nanotechnologies can assess molecular changes in the lens, vitreous, and macula that predate visible pathology. Oxygen metabolism and circulatory physiology are measurable indices of ocular health that can detect variations of physiology and early disease. This overview of paradigm shifts in ophthalmology suggests that the future will see significant improvements in ophthalmic diagnostics. The selected topics illustrate the principles of these paradigm shifts and should serve as a guide to further research and development. Indeed

  4. Plant Ecological Strategies Shift Across the Cretaceous–Paleogene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blonder, Benjamin; Royer, Dana L.; Johnson, Kirk R.; Miller, Ian; Enquist, Brian J.

    2014-01-01

    The Chicxulub bolide impact caused the end-Cretaceous mass extinction of plants, but the associated selectivity and ecological effects are poorly known. Using a unique set of North Dakota leaf fossil assemblages spanning 2.2 Myr across the event, we show among angiosperms a reduction of ecological strategies and selection for fast-growth strategies consistent with a hypothesized recovery from an impact winter. Leaf mass per area (carbon investment) decreased in both mean and variance, while vein density (carbon assimilation rate) increased in mean, consistent with a shift towards “fast” growth strategies. Plant extinction from the bolide impact resulted in a shift in functional trait space that likely had broad consequences for ecosystem functioning. PMID:25225914

  5. VP Anaphors and Object Shift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsnes, Bjarne

    2013-01-01

    The article discusses the placement of the VP anaphor det ‘it’ as a complement of verbs selecting VP complements in Danish. With verbs that only allow a VP complement, the VP anaphor must be in SpecCP regardless of its information structure properties. If SpecCP is occupied by an operator, the an...... be in situ. The article argues that a shifted pronominal in Danish must be categorially licensed by the verb and extends this analysis to shifting locatives. An Optimality Theory analysis is proposed that accounts for the observed facts....

  6. Radio-capacity of ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kultakhmedov, Yu.; Kultakhmedova-Vyshnyakova, V.

    1997-01-01

    This paper consider a universal approach to ecosystems of different types, based on representation of their radio-capacity. The concept of ecosystem includes reproduction of components (bio-productivity) and conditions such as maintaining of environment quality. Radio-capacity in the case of radionuclide pollution appears in accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides in the ecosystem. As a result the radionuclides are redistributed and buried in soil or lake bottom sediments. Estimation models for the radio-capacity of water and terrestrial ecosystems are represented. The calculations of the radio-capacity factor of water ecosystems are performed, and the high radio-capacity of a freshwater reservoir (F=0.6-0.8) and extremely high radio-capacity of a reservoir cascade (F c =0.99) is shown material from the Dnieper's cascade reservoirs. The methods of radio-capacity estimation of agroecosystems, wood and marine ecosystems are developed. (authors)

  7. Conditions for entrepreneurial ecosystem development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Radziwon, Agnieszka; Bogers, Marcel; Brem, Alexander

    In this paper, we explore on the value creation and capturing process in a regional entrepreneurial ecosystem. We investigate the conditions for the ecosystem development with a particular focus on small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), potentially the largest group of stakeholders within many...... ecosystems. The key findings discussed in the paper include general organizational requirements and governing structures, the role of leadership and ownership of the initiatives, and suggestions for potential collaborative areas. The paper concludes with suggestions both for potential inter...

  8. Ecosystem Management and Ecological Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    JØrgensen, S.E.

    2002-01-01

    It is the intention of this paper to demonstrate that environmental technology must be supplemented by other tools to be able to solve environmental problems properly. Five cases are used to illustrate the possibilities of ecological engineering, a new engineering field based on ecology, as chemical engineering is based on chemistry. It encompasses restoration of ecosystems, utilization of ecosystems to the benefit of both mankind and nature, construction of ecosystems, and ecologically sound...

  9. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-01-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence. (paper)

  10. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Biodiversity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Biodiversity provides data and information on amphibians, disease agents (extent and distribution of infectious and parasitic...

  11. Ecosystem services for energy security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athanas, Andrea; McCormick, Nadine

    2010-09-15

    The world is at an energy crossroads. The changes underway will have implications for ecosystems and livelihoods. Energy security is the reliable supply of affordable energy, of which there are two dimensions; reliability and resilience. Changes in ecosystem services linked to degradation and climate change have the potential to impact both on the reliabiity of energy systems and on their resiliance. Investing in ecosystems can help safeguard energy systems, and mitigate unforeseen risks to energy security. The energy and conservation community should come together to build reliable and resilliant energy systems in ways which recognise and value supporting ecosystems.

  12. Understanding the mobile money ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tobbin, P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the structure of the new mobile money ecosystem and the roles of its key players. Mobile money is an evolving sector both in volume and in economic impact especially in the developing world. The paper is an exploratory study that investigates the structure of the ecosystem......, providing a foundation for future strategic analysis of the system. We adopt a theoretical insight from Moore's business ecosystem theory to explain the key roles of the actors in the mobile money ecosystem. And also draw extensively from the work of Iansiti and Levien to explain the best strategies...

  13. Does the ARFIMA really shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monache, Davide Delle; Grassi, Stefano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    Short memory models contaminated by level shifts have long-memory features similar to those associated to processes generated under fractional integration. In this paper, we propose a robust testing procedure, based on an encompassing parametric specification, that allows to disentangle the level...

  14. Shift Work: Improving Daytime Sleep

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Good daytime sleep is possible, though, if shift work is a necessary part of your work life. To promote better sleep during the day: ... Take naps. Napping late in the day before work might help you make up your sleep debt. ...

  15. Leadership Shifts in Changing Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubrzycki, Jaclyn

    2013-01-01

    As groups representing local and state education players struggle to remain relevant in a policy conversation often dominated by foundations, think tanks, new advocacy groups, and political and business figures, a shift in leadership has been under way at major associations. Most of the changes have come as part of the natural churn; former…

  16. Shift register neutron coincidence module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephens, M.M.; Swansen, J.E.; East, L.V.

    1975-11-01

    A neutron coincidence module was designed using multistage shift registers to produce the coincidence gates and a crystal controlled oscillator with variable clock outputs to change the gate lengths. The advantage of this system over the conventional, thermal-neutron coincidence gates is a decrease in deadtime by more than an order of magnitude

  17. The Shift Needed for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Peter A. C.; Sharicz, Carol

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this action research is to begin to assess to what extent organizations have in practice begun to make the shift towards triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability. Design/methodology/approach: A definition of TBL sustainability is provided, and key elements of TBL sustainability considered necessary to success are identified…

  18. Environmental Protection: a shifting focus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dr. ir. Jan Venselaar

    2004-01-01

    The last two decades have seen a fundamental change in the way chemistry handles environmental issues. A shift in focus has occurred from 'end-of-pipe' to prevention and process integration. Presently an even more fundamental change is brought about by the need for sustainable development. It is

  19. Exploring inter-organizational collaboration for innovation in a regional ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Radziwon, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed a shift from a closed to an open innovation model, where firms complement their own resources with external resources and competencies. Communities, networks, ecosystems, alliances, and other coupled forms of open innovation have increased their prevalence and impact......-organizational collaboration by offering insights into the influence of key elements such as: Knowledge Transfer among ecosystem members, Resource Recombination with and without financial benefits and Power Balance between large and small collaboration partners....

  20. Reduced carbon sequestration in a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) ecosystem impacted by fish farming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Apostolaki, E; Holmer, Marianne; Marbà, N

    2011-01-01

    We studied the relationship between sediment nutrient enrichment and carbon sequestration, using the ratio of gross primary production to respiration (P/R), in a fish-farming impacted and an unaffected Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) ecosystem in the Aegean Sea, Greece. Carbon (C....... Such a regime shift indicates a loss of storage capacity of the seagrass ecosystem, jeopardizing the key role of P. oceanica as a carbon sink in the Mediterranean....

  1. Appropriate experimental ecosystem warming methods by ecosystem, objective, and practicality

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.L. Aronson; S.G. McNulty

    2009-01-01

    The temperature of the Earth is rising, and is highly likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The study of the effects of sustained heating on the ecosystems of the world is necessary so that wemight predict and respond to coming changes on both large and small spatial scales. To this end, ecosystem warming studies have...

  2. Payment for ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Oddershede, Jakob Stoktoft; Pedersen, Anders Branth

    Research question: Northern Europe experiences an increasingly wet climate, leading to more frequent and severe fluvial flood events. Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is becoming recognised as a valuable yet under-utilised means to alleviating negative effects of a changing climate. This however...... that would allow the local municipality to periodically flood farmland in order to avoid or limit urban flooding from Storåen. The experiment aims to estimate the costs of getting farmers to participate in the scheme, which would represent (some of) the costs of reducing climate change problems in the town...... of Holstebro. In a number of choice occasions, farmers were asked to select between either no contract or contracts characterised by a set of positive and negative attributes, including a whether or not to require specific flood resistant crops or not; whether to allow for a compensation in case of crop loss...

  3. Ecotoxicology and ecosystems health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiani, Giovanni

    2002-01-01

    There is mounting evidence that traditional investigations are no longer sufficient either to assess the ecological characteristics of a resource or to better understand the dynamics of an ecosystem. Reliable experimental data to be used for further investigation as well as for environmental corrective action are obtained using the traditional quantitative and qualitative biological methods. In fact, environmental health is connected with well functioning global and local ecological cycles, that also assure renewable, good quality natural resources. There is, therefore, a keen need for new, adequate techniques based on biological parameters that will allow for a better understanding and protection of the environment. The use of biological indexes and indicators and toxicology tests have been also prescribed by a recent Italian law on water protection. Differences between toxicology, environmental toxicology and ecotoxicology, often used as equivalent terms, are also analyzed. Furthermore a new classification is proposed and mapping of ecobiotic and toxicologic data on studying waters in river basins.

  4. Impacts of climate change on marine organisms and ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brierley, Andrew S; Kingsford, Michael J

    2009-07-28

    Human activities are releasing gigatonnes of carbon to the Earth's atmosphere annually. Direct consequences of cumulative post-industrial emissions include increasing global temperature, perturbed regional weather patterns, rising sea levels, acidifying oceans, changed nutrient loads and altered ocean circulation. These and other physical consequences are affecting marine biological processes from genes to ecosystems, over scales from rock pools to ocean basins, impacting ecosystem services and threatening human food security. The rates of physical change are unprecedented in some cases. Biological change is likely to be commensurately quick, although the resistance and resilience of organisms and ecosystems is highly variable. Biological changes founded in physiological response manifest as species range-changes, invasions and extinctions, and ecosystem regime shifts. Given the essential roles that oceans play in planetary function and provision of human sustenance, the grand challenge is to intervene before more tipping points are passed and marine ecosystems follow less-buffered terrestrial systems further down a spiral of decline. Although ocean bioengineering may alleviate change, this is not without risk. The principal brake to climate change remains reduced CO(2) emissions that marine scientists and custodians of the marine environment can lobby for and contribute to. This review describes present-day climate change, setting it in context with historical change, considers consequences of climate change for marine biological processes now and in to the future, and discusses contributions that marine systems could play in mitigating the impacts of global climate change.

  5. Ecology in Small Aquatic Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel René

    Small ecosystems are many-fold more abundant than their larger counterparts. Both on regional and global scale small lakes outnumber medium and large lakes and account for a much larger surface area. Small streams are also far more common than rivers. Despite their abundance small ecosystems are ...

  6. Economic values of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Beukering, Pieter J H; Brouwer, Roy; Koetse, Mark J.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystems provide important commodities and environmental benefits to society. As such, the management of ecosystems is an economic, social, and political issue encompassing all sectors of an economy. It involves trade-offs between competing uses and users, as well as between additional economic

  7. Ecosystem Restoration: A Manager's Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    James G. Kenna; Gilpin R., Jr. Robinson; Bill Pell; Michael A. Thompson; Joe McNeel

    1999-01-01

    Elements of ecological restoration underlie much of what we think of as ecosystem management, and restoration projects on federal lands represent some of the most exciting, challenging, and convincing demonstrations of applied ecosystem management. The Society for Ecological Restoration defined restoration as "the process of reestablishing to the extent possible...

  8. Terrestrial ecosystems and their change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anatoly Z. Shvidenko; Eric Gustafson; A. David McGuire; Vjacheslav I. Kharuk; Dmitry G. Schepaschenko; Herman H. Shugart; Nadezhda M. Tchebakova; Natalia N. Vygodskaya; Alexander A. Onuchin; Daniel J. Hayes; Ian McCallum; Shamil Maksyutov; Ludmila V. Mukhortova; Amber J. Soja; Luca Belelli-Marchesini; Julia A. Kurbatova; Alexander V. Oltchev; Elena I. Parfenova; Jacquelyn K. Shuman

    2012-01-01

    This chapter considers the current state of Siberian terrestrial ecosystems, their spatial distribution, and major biometric characteristics. Ongoing climate change and the dramatic increase of accompanying anthropogenic pressure provide different but mostly negative impacts on Siberian ecosystems. Future climates of the region may lead to substantial drying on large...

  9. Refocusing ecosystem services towards sustainability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schroter, Matthias; Stumpf, Klara H.; Loos, Jacqueline; Oudenhoven, van Alexander P.E.; Böhnke-Henrichs, Anne; Abson, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystem services and sustainability have become prominent concepts in international policy and research agendas. However, a common conceptual ground between these concepts is currently underdeveloped. In particular, a vision is missing on how to align ecosystem services with overarching

  10. Forest Ecosystem services: Water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; James Vose; Travis Warziniack; Bill Holman

    2017-01-01

    Since the publication of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005), awareness has steadily grown regarding the importance of maintaining natural capital. Forest vegetation is a valuable source of natural capital, and the regulation of water quantity and quality is among the most important forest ecosystem services in many regions around the world. Changes in...

  11. Special training of shift personnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, H.D.

    1981-01-01

    The first step of on-the-job training is practical observation phase in an operating Nuclear Plant, where the participants are assigned to shift work. The simulator training for operating personnel, for key personnel and, to some extent, also for maintenance personnel and specialists give the practical feeling for Nuclear Power Plant behaviour during normal and abnormal conditions. During the commissioning phase of the own Nuclear Power Plant, which is the most important practical training, the participants are integrated into the commissioning staff and assisted during their process of practical learning by special instructors. The preparation for the licensing exams is vitally important for shift personnel and special courses are provided after the first non-nuclear trial operation of the plant. Personnel training also includes performance of programmes and material for retraining, training of instructors and assistance in building up special training programmes and material as well as training centers. (orig./RW)

  12. Debt Shifting and Ownership Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Dirk Schindler; Guttorm Schjelderup

    2011-01-01

    Previous theoretical studies on the debt shifting behavior of multinationals have assumed affiliates of multinationals to be wholly owned. We develop a model that allows a multinational firm to determine both the leverage and ownership structure in affiliates endogenously. A main finding is that affiliates with minority owners have less debt than wholly owned affiliates and therefore a less tax efficient financing structure. This is due to an externality that arises endogenously in our model,...

  13. Into the Era of shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencik, Lars

    2005-01-01

    Globalization and new communication technologies shape new increasingly unpredictable living conditions. Societies as individuals face a world og growing predictive impotence. Traditions loose their power as guides for maneuvering - where traditions was reflection will be. At the same time people......, life styles, experiences and sexuality. Even thougts and feelings.In the era of shifts we shall be living with ever more design in an ever less designed world....

  14. Hadronic shift in pionic hydrogen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hennebach, M.; Gotta, D. [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institut fuer Kernphysik, Juelich (Germany); Anagnostopoulos, D.F. [University of Ioannina, Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Ioannina (Greece); Dax, A.; Liu, Y.W.; Markushin, V.E.; Simons, L.M. [Paul Scherrer Institut, Laboratory for Particle Physics, Villigen (Switzerland); Fuhrmann, H.; Gruber, A.; Hirtl, A.; Zmeskal, J. [Austrian Academy of Sciences, Stefan Meyer Institute for Subatomic Physics, Vienna (Austria); Indelicato, P. [UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Laboratoire Kastler Brossel, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); CNRS, Laboratoire Kastler Brossel, Paris (France); Departement de Physique de l' Ecole Normale Superieure, Laboratoire Kastler Brossel, Paris (France); Manil, B. [UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Laboratoire Kastler Brossel, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); Rusi el Hassani, A.J. [Universite Abdelmalek Essaadi, Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, Tanger (Morocco); Trassinelli, M. [Sorbonne Universites, Institut des NanoSciences de Paris, Paris (France); CNRS, Institut des NanoSciences de Paris, Paris (France)

    2014-12-01

    The hadronic shift in pionic hydrogen has been redetermined to be ε {sub 1s} = 7.086 ± 0.007(stat) ± 0.006(sys) eV by X-ray spectroscopy of ground-state transitions applying various energy calibration schemes. The experiment was performed at the high-intensity low-energy pion beam of the Paul Scherrer Institut by using the cyclotron trap and an ultimate-resolution Bragg spectrometer with bent crystals. (orig.)

  15. Multicolor Holography With Phase Shifting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vikram, Chandra S.

    1996-01-01

    Prototype apparatus constructed to test feasibility of two-color holographic interferometric scheme in which data for reconstructing holographic wavefront obtained with help of phase-shifting technique. Provides two sets of data needed to solve equations for effects of temperature and concentration. Concept extended to holography at three or more wavelengths to measure three or more phenomena associated with significant variations in index of refraction

  16. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hao; Luo, Peng; Wang, Jun; Mou, Chengxiang; Mo, Li; Wang, Zhiyuan; Fu, Yao; Lin, Honghui; Yang, Yongping; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt

    2015-01-01

    Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang) increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  17. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yang

    Full Text Available Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  18. Water quality and ecosystem management: Data-driven reality check of effects in streams and lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destouni, Georgia; Fischer, Ida; Prieto, Carmen

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates nutrient-related water quality conditions and change trends in the first management periods of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD; since 2009) and Baltic Sea Action Plan (BASP; since 2007). With mitigation of nutrients in inland waters and their discharges to the Baltic Sea being a common WFD and BSAP target, we use Sweden as a case study of observable effects, by compiling and analyzing all openly available water and nutrient monitoring data across Sweden since 2003. The data compilation reveals that nutrient monitoring covers only around 1% (down to 0.2% for nutrient loads) of the total number of WFD-classified stream and lake water bodies in Sweden. The data analysis further shows that the hydro-climatically driven water discharge dominates the determination of waterborne loads of both total phosphorus and total nitrogen across Sweden. Both water discharge and the related nutrient loads are in turn well correlated with the ecosystem status classification of Swedish water bodies. Nutrient concentrations do not exhibit such correlation and their changes over the study period are on average small, but concentration increases are found for moderate-to-bad status waters, for which both the WFD and the BSAP have instead targeted concentration decreases. In general, these results indicate insufficient distinction and mitigation of human-driven nutrient components in inland waters and their discharges to the sea by the internationally harmonized applications of the WFD and the BSAP. The results call for further comparative investigations of observable large-scale effects of such regulatory/management frameworks in different parts of the world.

  19. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  20. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, C.R.; Leech, David; Van de Pol, M.

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that

  1. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Yu

    2018-03-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth's hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 121(11):8352-8370, 2016) by combining the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with an ocean model output. In this study, we reconstructed the observed seasonal geocenter motion with geophysical model predictions of mass variations in the polar ice sheets, continental glaciers, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and atmosphere and dynamic ocean (AO). The reconstructed geocenter motion time series is shown to be in close agreement with the solution based on GRACE data supporting with an ocean bottom pressure model. Over 85% of the observed geocenter motion time series, variance can be explained by the reconstructed solution, which allows a further investigation of the driving mechanisms. We then demonstrated that AO component accounts for 54, 62, and 25% of the observed geocenter motion variances in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. The TWS component alone explains 42, 32, and 39% of the observed variances. The net mass changes over oceans together with self-attraction and loading effects also contribute significantly (about 30%) to the seasonal geocenter motion in the X and Z directions. Other contributing sources, on the other hand, have marginal (less than 10%) impact on the seasonal variations but introduce a linear trend in the time series.

  2. Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waha, K.; Bussel, van L.G.J.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.

    2012-01-01

    Aim To simulate the sowing dates of 11 major annual crops at the global scale at high spatial resolution, based on climatic conditions and crop-specific temperature requirements. Location Global. Methods Sowing dates under rainfed conditions are simulated deterministically based on a set of rules

  3. Climate-driven enrichment of pollutants in peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Martínez Cortizas

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands play an important role for global carbon dynamics, acting as a sink or source depending on climate. Such changes imply a series of additional effects because peatlands are also an important reservoir of atmospherically derived pollutants. Using a multiproxy approach (non-pollen-palynomorphs, δ15N, C/N, Se, Br, I, Hg, Ti, we show a relationship between climate (wetter–drier and peat decomposition, which affected element concentrations in a Spanish bog during the last 5500 years. Changes in superficial wetness played a critical role in the cycling of elements coupled to carbon dynamics. Dry phases caused increased peat mineralisation, resulting in a 2–3 times increase in concentrations of the analysed elements independent from atmospheric fluxes. Under the present trend of climate change large areas of northern peatlands are expected to be severely affected; in this context our findings indicate that the increase in carbon release, which leads to an enrichment of elements, may enhance the export of stored contaminants (Hg, organohalogens to the aquatic systems or to the atmosphere.

  4. Climate-driven changes of production regions in Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, M.; Eitzinger, J.; Hlavinka, P.; Dubrovský, Martin; Semerádová, Daniela; Štěpánek, P.; Thaler, S.; Žalud, Z.; Možný, M.; Formayer, H.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 6 (2009), s. 257-266 ISSN 1214-1178 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA521/08/1682 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climate change * agroclimatic zoning * water deficit * growing season * AgriClim Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.697, year: 2009 http://www.agriculturejournals.cz/uniqueFiles/08423.pdf

  5. Climate-driven population divergence in sex-determining systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pen, Ido; Uller, Tobias; Feldmeyer, Barbara; Harts, Anna; While, Geoffrey M.; Wapstra, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Sex determination is a fundamental biological process, yet its mechanisms are remarkably diverse(1,2). In vertebrates, sex can be determined by inherited genetic factors or by the temperature experienced during embryonic development(2,3). However, the evolutionary causes of this diversity remain

  6. Shift Work and Endocrine Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Ulhôa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this review was to investigate the impact of shift and night work on metabolic processes and the role of alterations in the sleep-wake cycle and feeding times and environmental changes in the occurrence of metabolic disorders. The literature review was performed by searching three electronic databases for relevant studies published in the last 10 years. The methodological quality of each study was assessed, and best-evidence synthesis was applied to draw conclusions. The literature has shown changes in concentrations of melatonin, cortisol, ghrelin, and leptin among shift workers. Melatonin has been implicated for its role in the synthesis and action of insulin. The action of this hormone also regulates the expression of transporter glucose type 4 or triggers phosphorylation of the insulin receptor. Therefore, a reduction in melatonin can be associated with an increase in insulin resistance and a propensity for the development of diabetes. Moreover, shift work can negatively affect sleep and contribute to sedentarism, unhealthy eating habits, and stress. Recent studies on metabolic processes have increasingly revealed their complexity. Physiological changes induced in workers who invert their activity-rest cycle to fulfill work hours include disruptions in metabolic processes.

  7. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

  8. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. PMID:25394857

  9. Ecosystem functional response across precipitation extremes in a sagebrush steppe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew T. Tredennick

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Precipitation is predicted to become more variable in the western United States, meaning years of above and below average precipitation will become more common. Periods of extreme precipitation are major drivers of interannual variability in ecosystem functioning in water limited communities, but how ecosystems respond to these extremes over the long-term may shift with precipitation means and variances. Long-term changes in ecosystem functional response could reflect compensatory changes in species composition or species reaching physiological thresholds at extreme precipitation levels. Methods We conducted a five year precipitation manipulation experiment in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem in Idaho, United States. We used drought and irrigation treatments (approximately 50% decrease/increase to investigate whether ecosystem functional response remains consistent under sustained high or low precipitation. We recorded data on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP, species abundance, and soil moisture. We fit a generalized linear mixed effects model to determine if the relationship between ANPP and soil moisture differed among treatments. We used nonmetric multidimensional scaling to quantify community composition over the five years. Results Ecosystem functional response, defined as the relationship between soil moisture and ANPP, was similar among irrigation and control treatments, but the drought treatment had a greater slope than the control treatment. However, all estimates for the effect of soil moisture on ANPP overlapped zero, indicating the relationship is weak and uncertain regardless of treatment. There was also large spatial variation in ANPP within-years, which contributes to the uncertainty of the soil moisture effect. Plant community composition was remarkably stable over the course of the experiment and did not differ among treatments. Discussion Despite some evidence that ecosystem functional response became more

  10. Navigating the Back Loop: Fostering Social Innovation and Transformation in Ecosystem Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinette Biggs

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Addressing the environmental challenges of the 21st century requires substantial changes to the way modern society views and manages ecosystems. In particular, many authors contend that fundamental transformation of the largely sectoral, expert-centered ecosystem-management institutions of modern, Western societies is needed. There is increasing agreement that more adaptive, integrated, collaborative ecosystem-management approaches, interlinked at multiple scales, would improve society's ability to sustainably manage complex social-ecological systems. Therefore, understanding processes of transformation, and factors that may enable transformation in ecosystem management, has become an active research area. We explore ecosystem-management transformations using a social-innovation framework. Based on three local-level case studies of transformation in freshwater management, we provide a pilot assessment of factors that may promote the emergence and adoption of integrated, collaborative ecosystem-management approaches. Our analysis suggests that ongoing environmental degradation, increasing environmental awareness, and shifting societal values are creating fertile ground for the emergence and adoption of new approaches to ecosystem management. Based on the case studies we examined, we suggest that initiatives that foster environmental awareness and attachment to local ecosystems, develop capacity for social entrepreneurship in the environmental arena, promote dialogue between key stakeholders, and provide institutional support to new institutions may facilitate the emergence of integrated, collaborative ecosystem-management approaches.

  11. Parasite infection alters nitrogen cycling at the ecosystem scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mischler, John; Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Townsend, Alan R

    2016-05-01

    Despite growing evidence that parasites often alter nutrient flows through their hosts and can comprise a substantial amount of biomass in many systems, whether endemic parasites influence ecosystem nutrient cycling, and which nutrient pathways may be important, remains conjectural. A framework to evaluate how endemic parasites alter nutrient cycling across varied ecosystems requires an understanding of the following: (i) parasite effects on host nutrient excretion; (ii) ecosystem nutrient limitation; (iii) effects of parasite abundance, host density, host functional role and host excretion rate on nutrient flows; and (iv) how this infection-induced nutrient flux compares to other pools and fluxes. Pathogens that significantly increase the availability of a limiting nutrient within an ecosystem should produce a measurable ecosystem-scale response. Here, we combined field-derived estimates of trematode parasite infections in aquatic snails with measurements of snail excretion and tissue stoichiometry to show that parasites are capable of altering nutrient excretion in their intermediate host snails (dominant grazers). We integrated laboratory measurements of host nitrogen excretion with field-based estimates of infection in an ecosystem model and compared these fluxes to other pools and fluxes of nitrogen as measured in the field. Eighteen nitrogen-limited ponds were examined to determine whether infection had a measurable effect on ecosystem-scale nitrogen cycling. Because of their low nitrogen content and high demand for host carbon, parasites accelerated the rate at which infected hosts excreted nitrogen to the water column in a dose-response manner, thereby shifting nutrient stoichiometry and availability at the ecosystem scale. Infection-enhanced fluxes of dissolved inorganic nitrogen were similar to other commonly important environmental sources of bioavailable nitrogen to the system. Additional field measurements within nitrogen-limited ponds indicated that

  12. Towards a consistent approach for ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edens, B.; Hein, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    In spite of an increasing interest in environmental economic accounting, there is still very limited experience with the integration of ecosystem services and ecosystem capital in national accounts. This paper identifies four key methodological challenges in developing ecosystem accounts: the

  13. Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, B.J.; Kennedy, V.H.; Nelson, A.

    1983-06-01

    A bibliographical database has been developed to provide quick access to research and background literature in the field of radioecology. This is a development of an earlier database described by Nelson (Bocock 1981). ITE's particular fields of interest have led to a subject bias in the bibliography towards studies in Cumbria, especially those concerned with radionuclides originating from the reprocessing plant at Sellafield, and towards ecological research studies that are complementary to radionuclide studies. Other subjects covered, include the chemistry of radionuclides, budgets and transfers within ecosystems and techniques for the analysis of environmental samples. ITE's research objectives have led to the establishment of a specialized database which is intended to complement rather than compete with the large international databases made available by suppliers such as IRS-DIALTECH or DIALOG. Currently the database holds about 1900 references which are stored on a 2 1/2 megabyte hard disk on a Digital PDP11/34 computer operating under a time shared system. The references follow a standard format. (author)

  14. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Tudela, Sergi; Palomera, Isabel; Pranovi, Fabio

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impacts of fishing-i.e., the level of ecosystem overfishing. Here we evaluate the historical and current risk of ecosystem overfishing at a global scale by quantifying the depletion of secondary production using the best available fisheries and ecological data (i.e., catch and primary production). Our results highlight an increasing trend in the number of unsustainable fisheries (i.e., an increase in the risk of ecosystem overfishing) from the 1950s to the 2000s, and illustrate the worldwide geographic expansion of overfishing. These results enable to assess when and where fishing became unsustainable at the ecosystem level. At present, total catch per capita from Large Marine Ecosystems is at least twice the value estimated to ensure fishing at moderate sustainable levels.

  15. Ontogenetic functional diversity: size structure of a keystone predator drives functioning of a complex ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolf, Volker H W; Rasmussen, Nick L

    2013-05-01

    A central challenge in community ecology is to understand the connection between biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems. While traditional approaches have largely focused on species-level diversity, increasing evidence indicates that there exists substantial ecological diversity among individuals within species. By far, the largest source of this intraspecific diversity stems from variation among individuals in ontogenetic stage and size. Although such ontogenetic shifts are ubiquitous in natural communities, whether and how they scale up to influence the structure and functioning of complex ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we take an experimental approach to examine the consequences of ontogenetic niche shifts for the structure of communities and ecosystem processes. In particular we experimentally manipulated the stage structure in a keystone predator, larvae of the dragonfly Anax junius, in complex experimental pond communities to test whether changes in the population stage or size structure of a keystone species scale up to alter community structure and ecosystem processes, and how functional differences scale with relative differences in size among stages. We found that the functional role of A. junius was stage-specific. Altering what stages were present in a pond led to concurrent changes in community structure, primary producer biomass (periphyton and phytoplankton), and ultimately altered ecosystem processes (respiration and net primary productivity), indicating a strong, but stage-specific, trophic cascade. Interestingly, the stage-specific effects did not simply scale with size or biomass of the predator, but instead indicated clear ontogenetic niche shifts in ecological interactions. Thus, functional differences among stages within a keystone species scaled up to alter the functioning of entire ecosystems. Therefore, our results indicate that the classical approach of assuming an average functional role of a species can be misleading because

  16. Ecosystem Services: Benefits Supplied to Human Societies by Natural Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    The module provides a link to an article that is part of a series of articles in Issues in Ecology. This article discusses the many services an ecosystem provides in order to sustain and fulfill human needs.

  17. Incoherent and coherent tune shifts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, S.Y. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States). AGS Dept.

    1995-12-31

    The longitudinal and transverse microwave instabilities are the two important limiting factors for the performance of an accelerator. Comparing with the fairly unified approach for the longitudinal microwave instabilities, different approaches have been used to define the transverse microwave instabilities. One reason of this is related to the role played by the space charge incoherent and coherent tune shifts. In this article, the transverse microwave instabilities will be discussed by defining separately the roles of the space charge incoherent and coherent tunes, which are represented by the space charge transverse impedances. Preliminary results for the AGS as proton driver are presented by using this approach.

  18. Steady State Shift Damage Localization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sekjær, Claus; Bull, Thomas; Markvart, Morten Kusk

    2017-01-01

    The steady state shift damage localization (S3DL) method localizes structural deterioration, manifested as either a mass or stiffness perturbation, by interrogating the damage-induced change in the steady state vibration response with damage patterns cast from a theoretical model. Damage is, thus...... the required accuracy when examining complex structures, an extensive amount of degrees of freedom (DOF) must often be utilized. Since the interrogation matrix for each damage pattern depends on the size of the system matrices constituting the FE-model, the computational time quickly becomes of first...

  19. Implications of tristability in pattern-forming ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelnik, Yuval R.; Gandhi, Punit; Knobloch, Edgar; Meron, Ehud

    2018-03-01

    Many ecosystems show both self-organized spatial patterns and multistability of possible states. The combination of these two phenomena in different forms has a significant impact on the behavior of ecosystems in changing environments. One notable case is connected to tristability of two distinct uniform states together with patterned states, which has recently been found in model studies of dryland ecosystems. Using a simple model, we determine the extent of tristability in parameter space, explore its effects on the system dynamics, and consider its implications for state transitions or regime shifts. We analyze the bifurcation structure of model solutions that describe uniform states, periodic patterns, and hybrid states between the former two. We map out the parameter space where these states exist, and note how the different states interact with each other. We further focus on two special implications with ecological significance, breakdown of the snaking range and complex fronts. We find that the organization of the hybrid states within a homoclinic snaking structure breaks down as it meets a Maxwell point where simple fronts are stationary. We also discover a new series of complex fronts between the uniform states, each with its own velocity. We conclude with a brief discussion of the significance of these findings for the dynamics of regime shifts and their potential control.

  20. The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigenbrod, F.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.; Heinemeyer, A.; Armsworth, P. R.; Gaston, K. J.

    2011-01-01

    Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services—flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban ‘sprawl’ will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the ‘densification’ urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization. PMID:21389035

  1. Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushet, David M.; McKenna, Owen; LaBaugh, James W.; Euliss, Ned H.; Rosenberry, Donald O.

    2018-01-01

    The Wetland Continuum is a conceptual framework that facilitates the interpretation of biological studies of wetland ecosystems. Recently summarized evidence documenting how a multi-decadal wet period has influenced aspects of wetland, lake and stream systems in the southern prairie-pothole region of North America has revealed the potential for wetlands to shift among alternate states. We propose that incorporation of state shifts into the Wetland Continuum, as originally proposed or as modified by Hayashi et al., is a relatively simple matter if one allows for shifts of wetlands along the horizontal, groundwater axis of the framework under conditions of extreme and sustained wet or dry conditions. We suggest that the ease by which state shifts can be accommodated within both the original and modified frameworks of the Wetland Continuum is a testament to the robustness of the concept when it is related to the alternative-stable-state concept.

  2. Puako Ecosystem Model Output Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are valued differently by different users. Managers are challenged to comprehensively address the full...

  3. Mineral nutrients in mediterranean ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Day, JA

    1983-06-01

    Full Text Available ' classifications of plant forms and formations, categories implicitly based on their intuitive views of convergence. Because of the striking similarities in plant form among the small, widely-separated Mediterranean ecosystems (Figure 1), biogeographical concepts...

  4. Engineering Ecosystems and Synthetic Ecologies#

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mee, Michael T; Wang, Harris H

    2012-01-01

    Microbial ecosystems play an important role in nature. Engineering these systems for industrial, medical, or biotechnological purposes are important pursuits for synthetic biologists and biological engineers moving forward. Here, we provide a review of recent progress in engineering natural and synthetic microbial ecosystems. We highlight important forward engineering design principles, theoretical and quantitative models, new experimental and manipulation tools, and possible applications of microbial ecosystem engineering. We argue that simply engineering individual microbes will lead to fragile homogenous populations that are difficult to sustain, especially in highly heterogeneous and unpredictable environments. Instead, engineered microbial ecosystems are likely to be more robust and able to achieve complex tasks at the spatial and temporal resolution needed for truly programmable biology. PMID:22722235

  5. Mirador - Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. This Focus Area deals with the cycling of carbon in reservoirs and ecosystems as it changes naturally, is changed by humans,...

  6. Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandasamy, Narayanan; Hardy, Ben; Page, Lionel; Schaffner, Markus; Graggaber, Johann; Powlson, Andrew S; Fletcher, Paul C; Gurnell, Mark; Coates, John

    2014-03-04

    Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over 8 d to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking and found that participants became more risk-averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an underappreciated cause of market instability.

  7. Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

    2017-04-01

    Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Unintended cultivation, shifting baselines, and conflict between objectives for fisheries and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Christopher J; Trebilco, Rowan

    2014-06-01

    The effects of fisheries on marine ecosystems, and their capacity to drive shifts in ecosystem states, have been widely documented. Less well appreciated is that some commercially valuable species respond positively to fishing-induced ecosystem change and can become important fisheries resources in modified ecosystems. Thus, the ecological effects of one fishery can unintentionally increase the abundance and productivity of other fished species (i.e., cultivate). We reviewed examples of this effect in the peer-reviewed literature. We found 2 underlying ecosystem drivers of the effect: trophic release of prey species when predators are overfished and habitat change. Key ecological, social, and economic conditions required for one fishery to unintentionally cultivate another include strong top-down control of prey by predators, the value of the new fishery, and the capacity of fishers to adapt to a new fishery. These unintended cultivation effects imply strong trade-offs between short-term fishery success and conservation efforts to restore ecosystems toward baseline conditions because goals for fisheries and conservation may be incompatible. Conflicts are likely to be exacerbated if fisheries baselines shift relative to conservation baselines and there is investment in the new fishery. However, in the long-term, restoration toward ecosystem baselines may often benefit both fishery and conservation goals. Unintended cultivation can be identified and predicted using a combination of time-series data, dietary studies, models of food webs, and socioeconomic data. Identifying unintended cultivation is necessary for management to set compatible goals for fisheries and conservation. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. nitrogen saturation in stream ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Earl, S. R.; Valett, H. M.; Webster, J. R.

    2006-01-01

    The concept of nitrogen (N) saturation has organized the assessment of N loading in terrestrial ecosystems. Here we extend the concept to lotic ecosystems by coupling Michaelis-Menten kinetics and nutrient spiraling. We propose a series of saturation response types, which may be used to characterize the proximity of streams to N saturation. We conducted a series of short-term N releases using a tracer ((NO3)-N-15-N) to measure uptake. Experiments were conducted in streams spanning a gradient ...

  10. Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Niels M.; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier

    2017-01-01

    How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they ...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

  11. Ecosystem Overfishing in the Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Tudela, Sergi; Palomera, Isabel; Pranovi, Fabio

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impac...

  12. Ecosystem restoration strengthens pollination network resilience and function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser-Bunbury, Christopher N; Mougal, James; Whittington, Andrew E; Valentin, Terence; Gabriel, Ronny; Olesen, Jens M; Blüthgen, Nico

    2017-02-09

    Land degradation results in declining biodiversity and the disruption of ecosystem functioning worldwide, particularly in the tropics. Vegetation restoration is a common tool used to mitigate these impacts and increasingly aims to restore ecosystem functions rather than species diversity. However, evidence from community experiments on the effect of restoration practices on ecosystem functions is scarce. Pollination is an important ecosystem function and the global decline in pollinators attenuates the resistance of natural areas and agro-environments to disturbances. Thus, the ability of pollination functions to resist or recover from disturbance (that is, the functional resilience) may be critical for ensuring a successful restoration process. Here we report the use of a community field experiment to investigate the effects of vegetation restoration, specifically the removal of exotic shrubs, on pollination. We analyse 64 plant-pollinator networks and the reproductive performance of the ten most abundant plant species across four restored and four unrestored, disturbed mountaintop communities. Ecosystem restoration resulted in a marked increase in pollinator species, visits to flowers and interaction diversity. Interactions in restored networks were more generalized than in unrestored networks, indicating a higher functional redundancy in restored communities. Shifts in interaction patterns had direct and positive effects on pollination, especially on the relative and total fruit production of native plants. Pollinator limitation was prevalent at unrestored sites only, where the proportion of flowers producing fruit increased with pollinator visitation, approaching the higher levels seen in restored plant communities. Our results show that vegetation restoration can improve pollination, suggesting that the degradation of ecosystem functions is at least partially reversible. The degree of recovery may depend on the state of degradation before restoration

  13. Evolving Ecosystems in Education: The Nature and Implications of Private Supplementary Tutoring in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, Mark; Kobakhidze, Magda Nutsa

    2015-01-01

    An established literature draws on ecological concepts to analyze interrelationships within education structures and processes, and the impact of shifting balances. Private supplementary tutoring--relatively new in ecosystems of education around the world--is creating significant changes in relationships, particularly as they concern teachers'…

  14. Integrating neotropical migratory birds into Forest Service plans for ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah M. Finch; William M. Block; Reg A. Fletcher; Leon F. Fager

    1993-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service is undergoing a major change in focus in response to public interests, growing concern for sustaining natural resources, and new knowledge about wildlife, fisheries, forests and grasslands, and how they interact at the ecosystem level. This shift in direction affects how Forest Service lands are managed, what research is conducted, how resource...

  15. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services,

  16. Beyond urban legends: an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward T.A. Pickett; Mary L. Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Peter M. Groffman; Lawrence E. Band; Christopher G. Boone; William R., Jr. Burch; Susan B. Grimmond; John Hom; Jennifer C. Jenkins; Neely L. Law; Charles H. Nilon; Richard V. Pouyat; Katalin Szlavecz; Paige S. Warren; Matthew A. Wilson

    2008-01-01

    The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions...

  17. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem

  18. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska

    2015-01-01

    Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services, and the loss of

  19. Vulnerability of landscape carbon fluxes to future climate and fire in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erica A. H. Smithwick; Anthony L. Westerling; Monica G. Turner; William H. Romme; Michael G. Ryan

    2011-01-01

    More frequent fires under climate warming are likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) stocks by reducing the amount of C stored in biomass and soil. However, the thresholds of fire frequency that could shift landscapes from C sinks to C sources under future climates are not known. We used the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) as a case study to explore the conditions...

  20. Individual differences in shift work tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers-van der Holst, H.M.

    2016-01-01

    Shift work is a key feature of our contemporary 24/7 society, employing several successive work teams to sustain around-the-clock operations. However, numerous studies imply that frequently shifting the periods of sleep and wakefulness poses a serious threat to the shift worker’s physical, mental

  1. Shifting Cultivation : Promoting Innovative Policy and Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Shifting Cultivation : Promoting Innovative Policy and Development Options in the Eastern Himalayas. Shifting ... pressure and market forces. The idea is to share good policies and practices related to shifting cultivation and alternative options through regional exchange. ... Les chaînes de valeur comme leviers stratégiques.

  2. Simultaneous shifts in elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids of Emiliania huxleyi in response to environmental changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate-driven changes in environmental conditions have significant and complex effects on marine ecosystems. Variability in phytoplankton elements and biochemicals can be important for global ocean biogeochemistry and ecological functions, while there is currently limited understanding on how elements and biochemicals respond to the changing environments in key coccolithophore species such as Emiliania huxleyi. We investigated responses of elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids (FAs in a strain of E. huxleyi under three temperatures (12, 18 and 24 °C, three N : P supply ratios (molar ratios 10:1, 24:1 and 63:1 and two pCO2 levels (560 and 2400 µatm. Overall, C : N : P stoichiometry showed the most pronounced response to N : P supply ratios, with high ratios of particulate organic carbon vs. particulate organic nitrogen (POC : PON and low ratios of PON vs. particulate organic phosphorus (PON : POP in low-N media, and high POC : POP and PON : POP in low-P media. The ratio of particulate inorganic carbon vs. POC (PIC : POC and polyunsaturated fatty acid proportions strongly responded to temperature and pCO2, both being lower under high pCO2 and higher with warming. We observed synergistic interactions between warming and nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2 on elemental cellular contents and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA proportion in most cases, indicating the enhanced effect of warming under nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2. Our results suggest differential sensitivity of elements and FAs to the changes in temperature, nutrient availability and pCO2 in E. huxleyi, which is to some extent unique compared to non-calcifying algal classes. Thus, simultaneous changes of elements and FAs should be considered when predicting future roles of E. huxleyi in the biotic-mediated connection between biogeochemical cycles, ecological functions and climate change.

  3. How the origin of organic compounds affects vegetation patchiness and regime shifts in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, S.C.; Nierop, K.G.J.; Mao, J.

    2012-01-01

    Soil water repellency (SWR) is a common property of soils and has been reported from all inhabited continents. It can have negative consequences for plant growth due to stagnation of water infiltration. Recently, the understanding of SWR has increased, mainly for the soil physical mechanisms.

  4. The shift to Cloud Computing : The impact of disruptive technology on the enterprise software business ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuis, Lambert J.M.; Ehrenhard, Michel L.; Prause, Lars

    2017-01-01

    The rapid diffusion of Cloud Computing influences the way enterprise software is developed, distributed, and implemented. This uptake of Cloud Computing has profound implications for the IT industry and related industries, as it does not only affect the vendors' business models but also the other

  5. Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, M.

    2013-12-01

    Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in coming decades in all parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resource development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of co-evolution of the coupled human-water system, to serve as the theoretical framework for more detailed analysis of

  6. “Coral Dominance”: A Dangerous Ecosystem Misnomer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S. Vroom

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Over 100 years ago, before threats such as global climate change and ocean acidification were issues engrossing marine scientists, numerous tropical reef biologists began expressing concern that too much emphasis was being placed on coral dominance in reef systems. These researchers believed that the scientific community was beginning to lose sight of the overall mix of calcifying organisms necessary for the healthy function of reef ecosystems and demonstrated that some reefs were naturally coral dominated with corals being the main organisms responsible for reef accretion, yet other healthy reef ecosystems were found to rely almost entirely on calcified algae and foraminifera for calcium carbonate accumulation. Despite these historical cautionary messages, many agencies today have inherited a coral-centric approach to reef management, likely to the detriment of reef ecosystems worldwide. For example, recent research has shown that crustose coralline algae, a group of plants essential for building and cementing reef systems, are in greater danger of exhibiting decreased calcification rates and increased solubility than corals in warmer and more acidic ocean environments. A shift from coral-centric views to broader ecosystem views is imperative in order to protect endangered reef systems worldwide.

  7. Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.

    2017-01-01

    Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

  8. Synergistic impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on model ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Lewis J; Newbold, Tim; Purves, Drew W; Tittensor, Derek P; Harfoot, Michael B J

    2016-09-28

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity, yet separating their effects is challenging. We use a multi-trophic, trait-based, and spatially explicit general ecosystem model to examine the independent and synergistic effects of these processes on ecosystem structure. We manipulated habitat by removing plant biomass in varying spatial extents, intensities, and configurations. We found that emergent synergistic interactions of loss and fragmentation are major determinants of ecosystem response, including population declines and trophic pyramid shifts. Furthermore, trait-mediated interactions, such as a disproportionate sensitivity of large-sized organisms to fragmentation, produce significant effects in shaping responses. We also show that top-down regulation mitigates the effects of land use on plant biomass loss, suggesting that models lacking these interactions-including most carbon stock models-may not adequately capture land-use change impacts. Our results have important implications for understanding ecosystem responses to environmental change, and assessing the impacts of habitat fragmentation. © 2016 The Authors.

  9. Tilt shift determinations with spatial-carrier phase-shift method in temporal phase-shift interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Qian; Wang, Yang; He, Jianguo; Ji, Fang; Wang, Baorui

    2014-01-01

    An algorithm is proposed to deal with tilt-shift errors in temporal phase-shift interferometry (PSI). In the algorithm, the tilt shifts are detected with the spatial-carrier phase-shift (SCPS) method and then the tilt shifts are applied as priori information to the least-squares fittings of phase retrieval. The algorithm combines the best features of the SCPS and the temporal PSI. The algorithm could be applied to interferograms of arbitrary aperture without data extrapolation for the Fourier transform is not involved. Simulations and experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. The statistics of simulation results show a satisfied accuracy in detecting tilt-shift errors. Comparisons of the measurements with and without environmental vibration show that the proposed algorithm could compensate tilt-shift errors and retrieve wavefront phase accurately. The algorithm provides an approach to retrieve wavefront phase for the temporal PSI in vibrating environment. (paper)

  10. Navigating complexity through knowledge coproduction: Mainstreaming ecosystem services into disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyers, Belinda; Nel, Jeanne L; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Sitas, Nadia; Nel, Deon C

    2015-06-16

    Achieving the policy and practice shifts needed to secure ecosystem services is hampered by the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their management. Methods for the participatory production and exchange of knowledge offer an avenue to navigate this complexity together with the beneficiaries and managers of ecosystem services. We develop and apply a knowledge coproduction approach based on social-ecological systems research and assess its utility in generating shared knowledge and action for ecosystem services. The approach was piloted in South Africa across four case studies aimed at reducing the risk of disasters associated with floods, wildfires, storm waves, and droughts. Different configurations of stakeholders (knowledge brokers, assessment teams, implementers, and bridging agents) were involved in collaboratively designing each study, generating and exchanging knowledge, and planning for implementation. The approach proved useful in the development of shared knowledge on the sizable contribution of ecosystem services to disaster risk reduction. This knowledge was used by stakeholders to design and implement several actions to enhance ecosystem services, including new investments in ecosystem restoration, institutional changes in the private and public sector, and innovative partnerships of science, practice, and policy. By bringing together multiple disciplines, sectors, and stakeholders to jointly produce the knowledge needed to understand and manage a complex system, knowledge coproduction approaches offer an effective avenue for the improved integration of ecosystem services into decision making.

  11. Origin of Pareto-like spatial distributions in ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manor, Alon; Shnerb, Nadav M

    2008-12-31

    Recent studies of cluster distribution in various ecosystems revealed Pareto statistics for the size of spatial colonies. These results were supported by cellular automata simulations that yield robust criticality for endogenous pattern formation based on positive feedback. We show that this patch statistics is a manifestation of the law of proportionate effect. Mapping the stochastic model to a Markov birth-death process, the transition rates are shown to scale linearly with cluster size. This mapping provides a connection between patch statistics and the dynamics of the ecosystem; the "first passage time" for different colonies emerges as a powerful tool that discriminates between endogenous and exogenous clustering mechanisms. Imminent catastrophic shifts (such as desertification) manifest themselves in a drastic change of the stability properties of spatial colonies.

  12. The evolution of intellectual property strategy in innovation ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holgersson, Marcus; Granstrand, Ove; Bogers, Marcel

    2018-01-01

    In this article, we attempt to extend and nuance the debate on intellectual property (IP) strategy, appropriation, and open innovation in dynamic and systemic innovation contexts. We present the case of four generations of mobile telecommunications systems (covering the period 1980......-2015), and describe and analyze the co-evolution of strategic IP management and innovation ecosystems. Throughout this development, technologies and technological relationships were governed with different and shifting degrees of formality. Simultaneously, firms differentiated technology accessibility across actors...... and technologies to benefit from openness and appropriation of innovation. Our analysis shows that the discussion of competitiveness and appropriability needs to be expanded from the focal appropriability regime and complementary assets to the larger context of the innovation ecosystem and its cooperative...

  13. The evolution of intellectual property strategy in innovation ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holgersson, Marcus; Granstrand, Ove; Bogers, Marcel

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we attempt to extend and nuance the debate on intellectual property (IP) strategy, appropriation, and open innovation in dynamic and systemic innovation contexts. We present the case of four generations of mobile telecommunications systems (covering the period 1980......-2015), and describe and analyze the co-evolution of strategic IP management and innovation ecosystems. Throughout this development, technologies and technological relationships were governed with different and shifting degrees of formality. Simultaneously, firms differentiated technology accessibility across actors...... and technologies to benefit from openness and appropriation of innovation. Our analysis shows that the discussion of competitiveness and appropriability needs to be expanded from the focal appropriability regime and complementary assets to the larger context of the innovation ecosystem and its cooperative...

  14. Governance of ecosystem services on small islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polman, Nico; Reinhard, Stijn; Bets, van L.K.J.; Kuhlman, Tom

    2016-01-01

    Natural ecosystems provide an attractive focus for tourism on small islands. However, at the same time tourism and other human actions can be detrimental to these ecosystems especially because governance of the ecosystem may be difficult due to the limited resilience of small island ecosystems.

  15. Defining Ecosystem Assets for Natural Capital Accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Ken; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems' capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.

  16. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubayah, R.; Goetz, S. J.; Blair, J. B.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Hansen, M.; Healey, S. P.; Hofton, M. A.; Hurtt, G. C.; Kellner, J.; Luthcke, S. B.; Swatantran, A.

    2014-12-01

    Spaceborne lidar has been identified as a key technology by the international ecosystem science community because it enables accurate estimates of canopy structure and biomass and forms the basis for fusion approaches that extend the capabilities of existing and planned radar missions, such as the NASA-ISRO SAR and the ESA BIOMASS mission. The Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation Lidar (GEDI Lidar) was recently selected by NASA's Earth Ventures Instrument (EVI) program. From its vantage point on the International Space Station, GEDI Lidar provides high-resolution observations of forest vertical structure and addresses three, core science questions: What is the aboveground carbon balance of the land surface? What role will the land surface play in mitigating atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades? How does ecosystem structure affect habitat quality and biodiversity? GEDI informs these science questions by making billions of lidar waveform observations of canopy structure over its nominal one year mission length. The instrument uses three laser transmitters to produce 14 parallel tracks of 25 m footprints. These canopy measurements are then used to measure biomass and in fusion with radar and other remote sensing data to quantify changes in biomass resulting from disturbance and recovery. GEDI further marries ecosystem structure from lidar with ecosystem modeling to predict the sequestration potential of existing forests and to evaluate the impact of policy-driven afforestation and reforestation actions on sequestering additional carbon. Lastly, GEDI's observations of ecosystem structure provide a mapping of critical habitat metrics at the fine scales required for understanding the patterns, processes, and controls on biodiversity and habitat quality. The selection of GEDI Lidar, when combined with the rapid advancement of new radar missions and the availability of long-term land cover archives from passive optical sensors, ushers in an exciting new era of land

  17. Accumulation of carbon in northern mire ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolonen, K.; Turunen, J.; Alm, J. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology; Korhola, A. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Physical Geography; Jungner, H. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dating Lab.; Vasander, H. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    The basic feature in the functional ecology of any mire ecosystem is retardation of the effective decay of organic material resulting in a conspicuous accumulation of plant debris as peat overtime. The carbon accumulation process is slow, and climatic change may have an impact on the carbon cycle of peatlands, therefore, it has been of interest to study the rate of carbon accumulation by geological methods from dated peat strata. The approach is hampered by several facts. First, the mires vary enormously as to their vegetation and hydrology and hence their production and decay properties. It follows that a great number of study sites are needed. Second, the peat in mires expands both vertically and laterally, and this requires a spatial reconstruction of carbon accumulation within a mire basin. Third, simple geological methods cannot account for the actual rate of carbon accumulation in peat, and finally, an additional carbon sink in the mire ecosystems can be the mineral subsoil beneath peat. The proposed warming will perhaps shift northwards the existing climatic mire regimes and, thus, the northern aapa fens will change to Sphagnum bogs that are more effective in sequestering carbon, but distinctly less effective in their CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O emanation. The role of mire fires in more remote northern areas may then become another important factor. The answer to the important question of future total sequestration of carbon to peatlands depends on the precipitation and its seasonal distribution pattern. Most climatic scenarios predict a decrease in the evaporation surplus during the summer at northern regions. Presumably, the consequent lowering of the water table would improve growth of forest on mires and simultaneously decrease the methane fluxes from peat. The combined net effect could be a clear restraining of the radiative forcing

  18. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa A; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

    2010-03-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activity, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in our study, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning, and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the

  19. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

  20. Shifts in coral-assemblage composition do not ensure persistence of reef functionality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo; Carricart-Ganivet, Juan P.; Horta-Puga, Guillermo; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto

    2013-12-01

    Coral communities are changing rapidly worldwide through loss of coral cover and shifts in species composition. Although many reef-building corals are likely to decline, some weedy opportunistic species might increase in abundance. Here we explore whether the reshuffling of species can maintain ecosystem integrity and functioning. Using four common Caribbean reef-building coral genera we modeled rates of reef construction and complexity. We show that shifting coral assemblages result in rapid losses in coral-community calcification and reef rugosity that are independent of changes in the total abundance of reef corals. These losses are considerably higher than those recently attributed to climate change. Dominance patterns of coral assemblages seem to be the most important driver of the functioning of coral reefs and thus, the future of these ecosystems might depend not only on reductions of local and global stressors, but also on the maintenance of keystone coral species.

  1. Shifts in coral-assemblage composition do not ensure persistence of reef functionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo; Carricart-Ganivet, Juan P; Horta-Puga, Guillermo; Iglesias-Prieto, Roberto

    2013-12-12

    Coral communities are changing rapidly worldwide through loss of coral cover and shifts in species composition. Although many reef-building corals are likely to decline, some weedy opportunistic species might increase in abundance. Here we explore whether the reshuffling of species can maintain ecosystem integrity and functioning. Using four common Caribbean reef-building coral genera we modeled rates of reef construction and complexity. We show that shifting coral assemblages result in rapid losses in coral-community calcification and reef rugosity that are independent of changes in the total abundance of reef corals. These losses are considerably higher than those recently attributed to climate change. Dominance patterns of coral assemblages seem to be the most important driver of the functioning of coral reefs and thus, the future of these ecosystems might depend not only on reductions of local and global stressors, but also on the maintenance of keystone coral species.

  2. Seagrass sediments reveal the long-term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem

    KAUST Repository

    Serrano, Oscar

    2016-01-28

    © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time-course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass-dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments <0.125 mm and stable carbon isotope signatures (δ13C) of the organic matter were detected between 1850s and 1920s, whereas the shift detected in P concentration occurred several decades later (1960s). The first degradation phase (1850s-1950s) follows the onset of European settlement in Australia and was characterized by a strong increase in sediment accumulation rates and fine-grained particles, driven primarily by enhanced run-off due to land clearance and agriculture in the catchment. About 80% of total seagrass area at Oyster Harbour was lost during the second phase of environmental degradation (1960s until present). The sharp increase in P concentration and the increasing contribution of algae and terrestrial inputs into the sedimentary organic matter pool around 1960s provides compelling evidence of the documented eutrophication of the estuary and the subsequent loss of seagrass meadows. The results presented demonstrate the power of seagrass sedimentary archives to reconstruct the trajectories of anthropogenic pressures on estuarine ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems.

  3. Dynamics and computation in functional shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namikawa, Jun; Hashimoto, Takashi

    2004-07-01

    We introduce a new type of shift dynamics as an extended model of symbolic dynamics, and investigate the characteristics of shift spaces from the viewpoints of both dynamics and computation. This shift dynamics is called a functional shift, which is defined by a set of bi-infinite sequences of some functions on a set of symbols. To analyse the complexity of functional shifts, we measure them in terms of topological entropy, and locate their languages in the Chomsky hierarchy. Through this study, we argue that considering functional shifts from the viewpoints of both dynamics and computation gives us opposite results about the complexity of systems. We also describe a new class of shift spaces whose languages are not recursively enumerable.

  4. Does workplace health promotion reach shift workers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Garde, Anne Helene; Clausen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: One reason for health disparities between shift and day workers may be that workplace health promotion does not reach shift workers to the same extent as it reaches day workers. This study aimed to investigate the association between shift work and the availability of and participatio...... could not confirm that shift workers in general report a lower availability of and participation in workplace health promotion.......OBJECTIVES: One reason for health disparities between shift and day workers may be that workplace health promotion does not reach shift workers to the same extent as it reaches day workers. This study aimed to investigate the association between shift work and the availability of and participation...... in workplace health promotion. METHODS: We used cross-sectional questionnaire data from a large representative sample of all employed people in Denmark. We obtained information on the availability of and participation in six types of workplace health promotion. We also obtained information on working hours, ie...

  5. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Developing spatial biophysical accounting for multiple ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.; Schroter, M.; Hein, L.G.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is receiving increasing interest as a way to systematically monitor the conditions of ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. A critical element of ecosystem accounting is understanding spatially explicit flows of ecosystem services. We developed spatial biophysical

  7. Variable impact of late-Quaternary megafaunal extinction in causing ecological state shifts in North and South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnosky, Anthony D.; Lindsey, Emily L.; Villavicencio, Natalia A.; Bostelmann, Enrique; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Wanket, James; Marshall, Charles R.

    2016-01-01

    Loss of megafauna, an aspect of defaunation, can precipitate many ecological changes over short time scales. We examine whether megafauna loss can also explain features of lasting ecological state shifts that occurred as the Pleistocene gave way to the Holocene. We compare ecological impacts of late-Quaternary megafauna extinction in five American regions: southwestern Patagonia, the Pampas, northeastern United States, northwestern United States, and Beringia. We find that major ecological state shifts were consistent with expectations of defaunation in North American sites but not in South American ones. The differential responses highlight two factors necessary for defaunation to trigger lasting ecological state shifts discernable in the fossil record: (i) lost megafauna need to have been effective ecosystem engineers, like proboscideans; and (ii) historical contingencies must have provided the ecosystem with plant species likely to respond to megafaunal loss. These findings help in identifying modern ecosystems that are most at risk for disappearing should current pressures on the ecosystems' large animals continue and highlight the critical role of both individual species ecologies and ecosystem context in predicting the lasting impacts of defaunation currently underway.

  8. Variable impact of late-Quaternary megafaunal extinction in causing ecological state shifts in North and South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnosky, Anthony D; Lindsey, Emily L; Villavicencio, Natalia A; Bostelmann, Enrique; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Wanket, James; Marshall, Charles R

    2016-01-26

    Loss of megafauna, an aspect of defaunation, can precipitate many ecological changes over short time scales. We examine whether megafauna loss can also explain features of lasting ecological state shifts that occurred as the Pleistocene gave way to the Holocene. We compare ecological impacts of late-Quaternary megafauna extinction in five American regions: southwestern Patagonia, the Pampas, northeastern United States, northwestern United States, and Beringia. We find that major ecological state shifts were consistent with expectations of defaunation in North American sites but not in South American ones. The differential responses highlight two factors necessary for defaunation to trigger lasting ecological state shifts discernable in the fossil record: (i) lost megafauna need to have been effective ecosystem engineers, like proboscideans; and (ii) historical contingencies must have provided the ecosystem with plant species likely to respond to megafaunal loss. These findings help in identifying modern ecosystems that are most at risk for disappearing should current pressures on the ecosystems' large animals continue and highlight the critical role of both individual species ecologies and ecosystem context in predicting the lasting impacts of defaunation currently underway.

  9. Characterizing changes in marine ecosystem services

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Kai MA; Ruckelshaus, Mary

    2010-01-01

    The benefits of marine ecosystems for people are increasingly being characterized through the concept of ecosystem services, with the promise to aid decision making from marine spatial planning to ecosystem-based management. The characterization of changes in marine ecosystem services is central to the application of ecological science to policy contexts, and this field is quickly evolving with innovations in frameworks for integrating science, understanding of ecosystems and human benefits, ...

  10. Dry-season retreat and dietary shift of the dart-poison frog Dendrobates tinctorius (Anura: Dendrobatidae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Born, M.; Bongers, F.; Poelman, E.H.; Sterck, F.J.

    2010-01-01

    Dry-season retreat and dietary shift of the dart-poison frog Delldrobates tillCtOrillS (Anura: Dendrobatidae). Seasonal rainfall affects tropical forest dynamics and behavior of species that are part of these ecosystems. TIle positive correlation between amphibian ac tivity pattems and rainfall has

  11. Parallel ecological networks in ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olff, Han; Alonso, David; Berg, Matty P.; Eriksson, B. Klemens; Loreau, Michel; Piersma, Theunis; Rooney, Neil

    2009-01-01

    In ecosystems, species interact with other species directly and through abiotic factors in multiple ways, often forming complex networks of various types of ecological interaction. Out of this suite of interactions, predator–prey interactions have received most attention. The resulting food webs, however, will always operate simultaneously with networks based on other types of ecological interaction, such as through the activities of ecosystem engineers or mutualistic interactions. Little is known about how to classify, organize and quantify these other ecological networks and their mutual interplay. The aim of this paper is to provide new and testable ideas on how to understand and model ecosystems in which many different types of ecological interaction operate simultaneously. We approach this problem by first identifying six main types of interaction that operate within ecosystems, of which food web interactions are one. Then, we propose that food webs are structured among two main axes of organization: a vertical (classic) axis representing trophic position and a new horizontal ‘ecological stoichiometry’ axis representing decreasing palatability of plant parts and detritus for herbivores and detrivores and slower turnover times. The usefulness of these new ideas is then explored with three very different ecosystems as test cases: temperate intertidal mudflats; temperate short grass prairie; and tropical savannah. PMID:19451126

  12. Ecosystem services provided by waterbirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Andy J; Elmberg, Johan

    2014-02-01

    Ecosystem services are ecosystem processes that directly or indirectly benefit human well-being. There has been much recent literature identifying different services and the communities and species that provide them. This is a vital first step towards management and maintenance of these services. In this review, we specifically address the waterbirds, which play key functional roles in many aquatic ecosystems, including as predators, herbivores and vectors of seeds, invertebrates and nutrients, although these roles have often been overlooked. Waterbirds can maintain the diversity of other organisms, control pests, be effective bioindicators of ecological conditions, and act as sentinels of potential disease outbreaks. They also provide important provisioning (meat, feathers, eggs, etc.) and cultural services to both indigenous and westernized societies. We identify key gaps in the understanding of ecosystem services provided by waterbirds and areas for future research required to clarify their functional role in ecosystems and the services they provide. We consider how the economic value of these services could be calculated, giving some examples. Such valuation will provide powerful arguments for waterbird conservation. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  13. Progress and challenges in the development of ecosystem accounting as a tool to analyse ecosystem capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, Lars; Obst, Carl; Edens, Bram; Remme, R.P.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting has been developed as a systematic approach to incorporate measures of ecosystem services and ecosystem assets into an accounting structure. Ecosystem accounting involves spatially explicit modelling of ecosystem services and assets, in both physical and monetary terms. A

  14. Climate change-driven species' range shifts filtered by photoperiodism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikkonen, Kari; Taulavuori, Kari; Hyvönen, Terho; Gundel, Pedro E.; Hamilton, Cyd E.; Vänninen, Irene; Nissinen, Anne; Helander, Marjo

    2012-04-01

    Forecasts of species range shifts as a result of climate change are essential, because invasions by exotic species shape biodiversity and therefore ecosystem functions and services. Ecologists have focused on propagule pressure (for example, the number of individuals and invasion events), the characteristics of an invading species, and its new abiotic and biotic environment to predict the likelihood of range expansion and invasion. Here, we emphasize the role of photoperiodic response on the range expansion of species. Unlike temperature, the latitudinal gradient of seasonal changes in day length is a stable, abiotic environmental factor that does not change with local or global climate. Predicting range expansions across latitudes and the subsequent consequences for native communities requires a more comprehensive understanding of how species use day length to coordinate seasonal growth, reproduction, physiology and synchronization of life cycles with interacting individuals and species.

  15. Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Daniel; Sun, Zhanli; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

    2014-01-01

    Payment schemes for ecosystem services such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) rely on the prediction of ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios to ensure that emission reductions from carbon credits are additional. However, land systems often undergo periods of nonlinear...... and abrupt change that invalidate predictions calibrated on past trends. Rapid land-system change can occur when critical thresholds in broad-scale underlying drivers such as commodity prices and climate conditions are crossed or when sudden events such as political change or natural disasters punctuate long-term...... period but show recent signs of rapid change. The observed regime shifts were difficult to anticipate, which compromises the validity of predictions of future land-system changes and the assessment of their impact on greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, agriculture, biodiversity...

  16. Tipping point in plant-fungal interactions under severe drought causes abrupt rise in peatland ecosystem respiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassey, Vincent E J; Reczuga, Monika K; Zielińska, Małgorzata; Słowińska, Sandra; Robroek, Bjorn J M; Mariotte, Pierre; Seppey, Christophe V W; Lara, Enrique; Barabach, Jan; Słowiński, Michał; Bragazza, Luca; Chojnicki, Bogdan H; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Mitchell, Edward A D; Buttler, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    Ecosystems are increasingly prone to climate extremes, such as drought, with long-lasting effects on both plant and soil communities and, subsequently, on carbon (C) cycling. However, recent studies underlined the strong variability in ecosystem's response to droughts, raising the issue of nonlinear responses in plant and soil communities. The conundrum is what causes ecosystems to shift in response to drought. Here, we investigated the response of plant and soil fungi to drought of different intensities using a water table gradient in peatlands-a major C sink ecosystem. Using moving window structural equation models, we show that substantial changes in ecosystem respiration, plant and soil fungal communities occurred when the water level fell below a tipping point of -24 cm. As a corollary, ecosystem respiration was the greatest when graminoids and saprotrophic fungi became prevalent as a response to the extreme drought. Graminoids indirectly influenced fungal functional composition and soil enzyme activities through their direct effect on dissolved organic matter quality, while saprotrophic fungi directly influenced soil enzyme activities. In turn, increasing enzyme activities promoted ecosystem respiration. We show that functional transitions in ecosystem respiration critically depend on the degree of response of graminoids and saprotrophic fungi to drought. Our results represent a major advance in understanding the nonlinear nature of ecosystem properties to drought and pave the way towards a truly mechanistic understanding of the effects of drought on ecosystem processes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Defining ecosystem assets for natural capital accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems’ capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.

  18. Defining Ecosystem Assets for Natural Capital Accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Ken; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems’ capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks. PMID:27828969

  19. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: Management of Baltic cod stock requires an ecosystem approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möllmann, Christian; Blenckner, T.; Casini, M.

    2011-01-01

    In a recent ‘As We See It’ article, Cardinale & Svedäng (2011; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 425:297–301) used the example of the Eastern Baltic (EB) cod stock to argue that the concept of ecosystem regime shifts, especially the potential existence of alternative stable states (or dynamic regimes), blurs...... the fact that human exploitation (i.e. fishing) is the strongest impact on marine ecosystems. They further concluded that single-species approaches to resource management are functioning and that ecosystem-based approaches are not necessary. We (1) argue that the recent increase in the EB cod stock...... is inherently uncertain, (2) discuss the critique of the regime shift concept, and (3) describe why the EB cod stock dynamics demonstrates the need for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management....

  20. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Seeing the forest and the trees - A cross-scale assessment of wildfire and carbon dynamics in fire-prone, forested ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel A. Loehman; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Karin L. Riley

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires are an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and one of the main pathways for movement of carbon from the land surface to the atmosphere. Fires have received much attention in recent years as potential catalysts for shifting landscapes from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Unless structural or functional ecosystem shifts occur, net carbon balance...