WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate-driven ecosystem shifts

  1. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith

    2008-01-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt...... ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity...... and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod...

  2. Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

    2018-03-01

    Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

  3. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

    2016-01-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of

  4. Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

    2017-05-01

    Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting

  5. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  6. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  7. Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee

    2016-01-01

    High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since ...... the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses...

  8. Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

    2009-12-01

    Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual

  9. Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William

    2017-01-01

    Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...... about their external environment, potentially mediated by information transmitted through social learning (i.e. culture). Vertical transmission of culture (between generations) might encourage conservative behaviour, constraining the ability of a species to respond, whilst horizontal transmission...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions...

  10. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C. [ed.; Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.; Estiarte, M.; Penuelas, J.; Llorens Guash, L.; Williams, D.; Gordon, C.; Pugh, B.; Roda, F.; Gundersen, P.; Gorissen, A.

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3 deg. C increase in temperature with more vigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought periods in the coming 100 years. The consequence of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climate change and thereby to improve the basis for the international negotiations and political decisions to avoid or minimise climate change and its effects, a European research project CLIMOOR has been initiated. The project is a cross European research project involving 6 research groups from Denmark, the Netherlands, UK and Spain and is funded by EU and the participating institutions. The project investigates the potential effects of warming and drought on heath and moorland ecosystems at four European sites. The ecosystems are manipulated at field scale by reducing the heat loss at night by IR-reflective curtains and by removing the precipitation during a 2 month period in the summer. The effects of these manipulations on the plants and the soil are studied. This report describes the technique used to apply the climate change at field scale and presents some preliminary results after the first growing season. EU and the participating institutions fund CLIMOOR. (au)

  11. Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

  12. Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socolar, Jacob B; Epanchin, Peter N; Beissinger, Steven R; Tingley, Morgan W

    2017-12-05

    Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5-12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.

  13. Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Jesse A; MacFarlane, William W; Willcox, Louisa

    2010-06-01

    Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host, lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks, however, are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein, we address widespread, ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation, whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, where, due to an inhospitable climate, past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds, spatial structure of forest types, and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests, and the ecological services they provide, is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine.

  14. Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Dakos, Vasilis; Groeger, Joachim P.

    2012-01-01

    methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face...

  15. Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

    2017-12-01

    -mode. Thus, this study identifies climate fluctuations as the main driver for hydrological regime shifts in Son Kol controlling physicochemical conditions and consequently causing abrupt species assemblage changes. This emphasizes the importance of multi-proxy approaches to identify triggers, thresholds and cascades of aquatic ecosystem transformations.

  16. Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

  17. Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buermann, Wolfgang; Beaulieu, Claudie; Parida, Bikash; Medvigy, David; Collatz, George J.; Sheffield, Justin; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2016-03-01

    The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ˜ 1 PgC yr-1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ˜ 30 % larger than observed (or ˜ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

  18. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  19. Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

    2017-11-14

    Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  20. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

  1. Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagne, Tyler O.; Hyrenbach, K. David; Hagemann, Molly E.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.

    2018-01-01

    Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level–based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher–trophic level to lower–trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems. PMID:29457134

  2. Climate-driven polar motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Michael A.; Wahr, John M.; Bryan, Frank O.

    1999-06-01

    The output of a coupled climate system model provides a synthetic climate record with temporal and spatial coverage not attainable with observational data, allowing evaluation of climatic excitation of polar motion on timescales of months to decades. Analysis of the geodetically inferred Chandler excitation power shows that it has fluctuated by up to 90% since 1900 and that it has characteristics representative of a stationary Gaussian process. Our model-predicted climate excitation of the Chandler wobble also exhibits variable power comparable to the observed. Ocean currents and bottom pressure shifts acting together can alone drive the 14-month wobble. The same is true of the excitation generated by the combined effects of barometric pressure and winds. The oceanic and atmospheric contributions are this large because of a relatively high degree of constructive interference between seafloor pressure and currents and between atmospheric pressure and winds. In contrast, excitation by the redistribution of water on land appears largely insignificant. Not surprisingly, the full climate effect is even more capable of driving the wobble than the effects of the oceans or atmosphere alone are. Our match to the observed annual excitation is also improved, by about 17%, over previous estimates made with historical climate data. Efforts to explain the 30-year Markowitz wobble meet with less success. Even so, at periods ranging from months to decades, excitation generated by a model of a coupled climate system makes a close approximation to the amplitude of what is geodetically observed.

  3. The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D.; Hay, Mark E.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L.; Booth, David J.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Feary, David A.; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J.; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A.; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K.

    2014-01-01

    Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. PMID:25009065

  4. Rapid ecosystem shifts in peatlands: linking plant physiology and succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granath, Gustaf; Strengbom, Joachim; Rydin, Håkan

    2010-10-01

    Stratigraphic records from peatlands suggest that the shift from a rich fen (calcareous fen) to an ombrotrophic bog can occur rapidly. This shift constitutes a switch from a species-rich ecosystem to a species-poor one with greater carbon storage. In this process, the invasion and expansion of acidifying bog species of Sphagnum (peat mosses) play a key role. To test under what conditions an acidifying bog species could invade a rich fen, we conducted three experiments, contrasting the bog species S. fucsum with the rich-fen species S. warnstorfii and S. teres. We first tested the effect of calcareous water by growing the three species at different constant height above the water table (HWT; 2, 7, and 14 cm) in a rich-fen pool and measured maximum photosynthetic rate and production and difference in length growth as an indicator of competition. In none of the species was the photosynthetic capacity negatively affected when placed at low HWT, but S. fuscum was a weaker competitor at low HWT. In our second experiment we transplanted the three species into microhabitats with different and naturally varying HWT in a rich fen. Here, S. fuscum nearly ceased to photosynthesize when transplanted to low HWT (brown moss carpet), while it performed similarly to the two rich-fen species at the intermediate level (S. warnstorfii hummock level). In contrast to S. fuscum, the rich-fen sphagna performed equally well in both habitats. The brown moss carpet was seasonally flooded, and in our third experiment we found that S. fuscum, but not S. teres, was severely damaged when submerged in rich-fen water. Our results suggest two thresholds in HWT affecting the ecosystem switch: one level that reduces the risk of submergence and a higher one that makes bog sphagna competitive against the rich-fen species.

  5. Variance as a Leading Indicator of Regime Shift in Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William A. Brock

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Many environmental conflicts involve pollutants such as greenhouse gas emissions that are dispersed through space and cause losses of ecosystem services. As pollutant emissions rise in one place, a spatial cascade of declining ecosystem services can spread across a larger landscape because of the dispersion of the pollutant. This paper considers the problem of anticipating such spatial regime shifts by monitoring time series of the pollutant or associated ecosystem services. Using such data, it is possible to construct indicators that rise sharply in advance of regime shifts. Specifically, the maximum eigenvalue of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate time series of pollutants and ecosystem services rises prior to the regime shift. No specific knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the regime shift is needed to construct the indicator. Such leading indicators of regime shifts could provide useful signals to management agencies or to investors in ecosystem service markets.

  6. Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

    2007-06-19

    Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

  7. Climate-driven Sympatry does not Lead to Foraging Competition Between Adélie and Gentoo Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, M. A.; Moline, M. A.; Fraser, W.; Patterson-Fraser, D.; Oliver, M. J.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species, population shifts and changes in ecosystem structure. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. At Palmer Station, we tested for foraging competition between these species by comparing their prey, Antarctic krill, distributions and penguin foraging behaviors on fine scales. To study these predator-prey dynamics, we simultaneously deployed penguin satellite transmitters, and a REMUS autonomous underwater vehicle that acoustically detected krill aggregations and measured physical and biological properties of the water column. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguin. In the upper 100 m of the water column, the distribution of krill aggregations were mainly associated with CHL and light, suggesting that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. Adélie and gentoo penguins mainly had spatially segregated foraging areas but in areas of overlap, gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is the major driver of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories.

  8. Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

    2015-01-01

    The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate...... change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from...... simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts....

  10. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...

  11. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

    2016-09-01

    The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leadley, P.; Proenca, V.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Biggs, R.; Bruley, E.; Cheung, W.; Cooper, D.; Figueiredo, J.; Gilman, E.; Guenette, S.; Hurtt, G.; Mbow, C.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Scholes, R.; Smith, M.S.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M.

    2014-01-01

    Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human-environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are

  14. Seasonal shift in net ecosystem production in a tropical estuary

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ram, A.S.P.; Nair, S.; Chandramohan, D.

    ) and community respiration (R). Measurements of these variables are a prerequisite to assess the trophic status of aquatic ecosystems. Del Giorgio et al. (1997) suggested that metabolic balance depends on the primary productivity of the system. The rate...), and heterotrophy is not restricted to oligotrophic sys- tems. Of late, there has been considerable debate on the role of planktonic communities as sources (del Giorgio et al. 1997; Duarte et al. 2001) or sinks (Williams 1998) of carbon in subtropical and temperate...

  15. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.

    2016-01-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

  16. Regime shifts in demersal assemblages of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: a comparative assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkman, Stephen P.; Yemane, Dawit; Atkinson, Lara J.

    2015-01-01

    Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community‐level sh......Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community...

  17. Trophic niche shifts driven by phytoplankton in sandy beach ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamino, Leandro; Martínez, Ana; Han, Eunah; Lercari, Diego; Defeo, Omar

    2016-10-01

    Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) together with chlorophyll a and densities of surf diatoms were used to analyze changes in trophic niches of species in two sandy beaches of Uruguay with contrasting morphodynamics (i.e. dissipative vs. reflective). Consumers and food sources were collected over four seasons, including sediment organic matter (SOM), suspended particulate organic matter (POM) and the surf zone diatom Asterionellopsis guyunusae. Circular statistics and a Bayesian isotope mixing model were used to quantify food web differences between beaches. Consumers changed their trophic niche between beaches in the same direction of the food web space towards higher reliance on surf diatoms in the dissipative beach. Mixing models indicated that A. guyunusae was the primary nutrition source for suspension feeders in the dissipative beach, explaining their change in dietary niche compared to the reflective beach where the proportional contribution of surf diatoms was low. The high C/N ratios in A. guyunusae indicated its high nutritional value and N content, and may help to explain the high assimilation by suspension feeders at the dissipative beach. Furthermore, density of A. guyunusae was higher in the dissipative than in the reflective beach, and cell density was positively correlated with chlorophyll a only in the dissipative beach. Therefore, surf diatoms are important drivers in the dynamics of sandy beach food webs, determining the trophic niche space and productivity. Our study provides valuable insights on shifting foraging behavior by beach fauna in response to changes in resource availability.

  18. Initial shifts in nitrogen impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes in an alpine meadow: patterns and causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Bing; Sun, Jian; Zhou, Qingping; Zong, Ning; Li, Linghao; Niu, Shuli

    2017-09-01

    Increases in nitrogen (N) deposition can greatly stimulate ecosystem net carbon (C) sequestration through positive N-induced effects on plant productivity. However, how net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and its components respond to different N addition rates remains unclear. Using an N addition gradient experiment (six levels: 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 gN m-2 yr-1) in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, we explored the responses of different ecosystem C fluxes to an N addition gradient and revealed mechanisms underlying the dynamic responses. Results showed that NEE, ecosystem respiration (ER), and gross ecosystem production (GEP) all increased linearly with N addition rates in the first year of treatment but shifted to N saturation responses in the second year with the highest NEE (-7.77 ± 0.48 µmol m-2 s-1) occurring under an N addition rate of 8 gN m-2 yr-1. The saturation responses of NEE and GEP were caused by N-induced accumulation of standing litter, which limited light availability for plant growth under high N addition. The saturation response of ER was mainly due to an N-induced saturation response of aboveground plant respiration and decreasing soil microbial respiration along the N addition gradient, while decreases in soil microbial respiration under high N addition were caused by N-induced reductions in soil pH. We also found that various components of ER, including aboveground plant respiration, soil respiration, root respiration, and microbial respiration, responded differentially to the N addition gradient. These results reveal temporal dynamics of N impacts and the rapid shift in ecosystem C fluxes from N limitation to N saturation. Our findings bring evidence of short-term initial shifts in responses of ecosystem C fluxes to increases in N deposition, which should be considered when predicting long-term changes in ecosystem net C sequestration.

  19. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): evidence of a recent regime shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomczak, Maciej Tomasz; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik

    2012-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and...... further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance......An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west......), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses...

  20. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

  1. Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

    2017-11-01

    Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

  2. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

    2015-01-01

    In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

  3. Initial shifts in nitrogen impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes in an alpine meadow: patterns and causes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Song

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Increases in nitrogen (N deposition can greatly stimulate ecosystem net carbon (C sequestration through positive N-induced effects on plant productivity. However, how net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE and its components respond to different N addition rates remains unclear. Using an N addition gradient experiment (six levels: 0, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 gN m−2 yr−1 in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, we explored the responses of different ecosystem C fluxes to an N addition gradient and revealed mechanisms underlying the dynamic responses. Results showed that NEE, ecosystem respiration (ER, and gross ecosystem production (GEP all increased linearly with N addition rates in the first year of treatment but shifted to N saturation responses in the second year with the highest NEE (−7.77 ± 0.48 µmol m−2 s−1 occurring under an N addition rate of 8 gN m−2 yr−1. The saturation responses of NEE and GEP were caused by N-induced accumulation of standing litter, which limited light availability for plant growth under high N addition. The saturation response of ER was mainly due to an N-induced saturation response of aboveground plant respiration and decreasing soil microbial respiration along the N addition gradient, while decreases in soil microbial respiration under high N addition were caused by N-induced reductions in soil pH. We also found that various components of ER, including aboveground plant respiration, soil respiration, root respiration, and microbial respiration, responded differentially to the N addition gradient. These results reveal temporal dynamics of N impacts and the rapid shift in ecosystem C fluxes from N limitation to N saturation. Our findings bring evidence of short-term initial shifts in responses of ecosystem C fluxes to increases in N deposition, which should be considered when predicting long-term changes in ecosystem net C sequestration.

  4. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  5. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  6. Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Feldman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

  7. Persistent natural acidification drives major distribution shifts in marine benthic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, C.; Vidal, M.; Canals, M.; Kersting, D. K.; Amblas, D.; Aspillaga, E.; Cebrián, E.; Delgado-Huertas, A.; Díaz, D.; Garrabou, J.; Hereu, B.; Navarro, L.; Teixidó, N.; Ballesteros, E.

    2015-01-01

    Ocean acidification is receiving increasing attention because of its potential to affect marine ecosystems. Rare CO2 vents offer a unique opportunity to investigate the response of benthic ecosystems to acidification. However, the benthic habitats investigated so far are mainly found at very shallow water (less than or equal to 5 m depth) and therefore are not representative of the broad range of continental shelf habitats. Here, we show that a decrease from pH 8.1 to 7.9 observed in a CO2 vent system at 40 m depth leads to a dramatic shift in highly diverse and structurally complex habitats. Forests of the kelp Laminaria rodriguezii usually found at larger depths (greater than 65 m) replace the otherwise dominant habitats (i.e. coralligenous outcrops and rhodolith beds), which are mainly characterized by calcifying organisms. Only the aragonite-calcifying algae are able to survive in acidified waters, while high-magnesium-calcite organisms are almost completely absent. Although a long-term survey of the venting area would be necessary to fully understand the effects of the variability of pH and other carbonate parameters over the structure and functioning of the investigated mesophotic habitats, our results suggest that in addition of significant changes at species level, moderate ocean acidification may entail major shifts in the distribution and dominance of key benthic ecosystems at regional scale, which could have broad ecological and socio-economic implications. PMID:26511045

  8. Ecosystem services and opportunity costs shift spatial priorities for conserving forest biodiversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Schröter

    Full Text Available Inclusion of spatially explicit information on ecosystem services in conservation planning is a fairly new practice. This study analyses how the incorporation of ecosystem services as conservation features can affect conservation of forest biodiversity and how different opportunity cost constraints can change spatial priorities for conservation. We created spatially explicit cost-effective conservation scenarios for 59 forest biodiversity features and five ecosystem services in the county of Telemark (Norway with the help of the heuristic optimisation planning software, Marxan with Zones. We combined a mix of conservation instruments where forestry is either completely (non-use zone or partially restricted (partial use zone. Opportunity costs were measured in terms of foregone timber harvest, an important provisioning service in Telemark. Including a number of ecosystem services shifted priority conservation sites compared to a case where only biodiversity was considered, and increased the area of both the partial (+36.2% and the non-use zone (+3.2%. Furthermore, opportunity costs increased (+6.6%, which suggests that ecosystem services may not be a side-benefit of biodiversity conservation in this area. Opportunity cost levels were systematically changed to analyse their effect on spatial conservation priorities. Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services trades off against timber harvest. Currently designated nature reserves and landscape protection areas achieve a very low proportion (9.1% of the conservation targets we set in our scenario, which illustrates the high importance given to timber production at present. A trade-off curve indicated that large marginal increases in conservation target achievement are possible when the budget for conservation is increased. Forty percent of the maximum hypothetical opportunity costs would yield an average conservation target achievement of 79%.

  9. Ecosystem Services and Opportunity Costs Shift Spatial Priorities for Conserving Forest Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Matthias; Rusch, Graciela M.; Barton, David N.; Blumentrath, Stefan; Nordén, Björn

    2014-01-01

    Inclusion of spatially explicit information on ecosystem services in conservation planning is a fairly new practice. This study analyses how the incorporation of ecosystem services as conservation features can affect conservation of forest biodiversity and how different opportunity cost constraints can change spatial priorities for conservation. We created spatially explicit cost-effective conservation scenarios for 59 forest biodiversity features and five ecosystem services in the county of Telemark (Norway) with the help of the heuristic optimisation planning software, Marxan with Zones. We combined a mix of conservation instruments where forestry is either completely (non-use zone) or partially restricted (partial use zone). Opportunity costs were measured in terms of foregone timber harvest, an important provisioning service in Telemark. Including a number of ecosystem services shifted priority conservation sites compared to a case where only biodiversity was considered, and increased the area of both the partial (+36.2%) and the non-use zone (+3.2%). Furthermore, opportunity costs increased (+6.6%), which suggests that ecosystem services may not be a side-benefit of biodiversity conservation in this area. Opportunity cost levels were systematically changed to analyse their effect on spatial conservation priorities. Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services trades off against timber harvest. Currently designated nature reserves and landscape protection areas achieve a very low proportion (9.1%) of the conservation targets we set in our scenario, which illustrates the high importance given to timber production at present. A trade-off curve indicated that large marginal increases in conservation target achievement are possible when the budget for conservation is increased. Forty percent of the maximum hypothetical opportunity costs would yield an average conservation target achievement of 79%. PMID:25393951

  10. Influence of benthic macrofauna community shifts on ecosystem functioning in shallow estuaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik eKristensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We identify how ecosystem functioning in shallow estuaries is affected by shifts in benthic fauna communities. We use the shallow estuary, Odense Fjord, Denmark, as a case study to test our hypotheses that (1 shifts in benthic fauna composition and species functional traits affect biogeochemical cycling with cascading effects on ecological functioning, which may (2 modulate pelagic primary productivity with feedbacks to the benthic system. Odense Fjord is suitable because it experienced dramatic shifts in benthic fauna community structure from 1998 to 2008. We focused on infaunal species with emphasis on three dominating burrow-dwelling polychaetes: the native Nereis (Hediste diversicolor and Arenicola marina, and the invasive Marenzelleria viridis. The impact of functional traits in the form of particle reworking and ventilation on biogeochemical cycles, i.e. sediment metabolism and nutrient dynamics, was determined from literature data. Historical records of summer nutrient levels in the water column of the inner Odense Fjord show elevated concentrations of NH4+ and NO3- (DIN during the years 2004-2006, exactly when the N. diversicolor population declined and A. marina and M. viridis populations expanded dramatically. In support of our first hypothesis, we show that excess NH4+ delivery from the benthic system during the A. marina and M. viridis expansion period enriched the overlying water in DIN and stimulated phytoplankton concentration. The altered benthic-pelagic coupling and stimulated pelagic production may, in support of our second hypothesis, have feedback to the benthic system by changing the deposition of organic material. We therefore advice to identify the exact functional traits of the species involved in a community shift before studying its impact on ecosystem functioning. We also suggest studying benthic community shifts in shallow environments to obtain knowledge about the drivers and controls before exploring deep

  11. Shifting Restoration Policy to Address Landscape Change, Novel Ecosystems, and Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joy B. Zedler

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy to guide ecological restoration needs to aim toward minimizing the causes of ecosystem degradation; where causes cannot be eliminated or minimized, policy needs to shift toward accommodating irreversible landscape alterations brought about by climate change, nitrogen deposition, altered hydrology, degraded soil, and declining biodiversity. The degree to which lost diversity and ecosystem services can be recovered depends on the extent and nature of landscape change. For wetlands that occur at the base of watersheds that have been developed for agriculture or urban centers, the inflows of excess water, sediment, and nutrients can be permanent and can severely challenge efforts to restore historical services, including biodiversity support. In such cases, the historical state of downstream wetlands will not be completely restorable. Wetland restoration policy should promote watershed planning, wherein wetland and upland restoration is prioritized to achieve multiple, specific ecosystem services. For downstream wetlands, it is realistic to aim to enhance nitrogen removal and to establish native plants that are matrix dominants, namely, those that facilitate rather than displace other natives. More ambitious objectives such as maximizing diversity would be suitable for less-altered, upstream wetlands. Policy should also call for adaptive restoration and long-term assessments. For large sites and multiple sites of a given wetland type within a region, experimental tests can determine a wetland's ability to support high levels of ecosystem services. Once projects are underway, long-term monitoring of structural and functional indicators can characterize progress toward each objective. Managers can then learn which targets are unachievable based on data, not just opinion. Where an experimental treatment shows limited progress, practitioners would shift to more promising treatments and targets, thereby adapting restoration efforts to changing

  12. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Liebergesell

    Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  13. Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

    2012-01-01

    Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts

  14. Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

    2017-05-01

    In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

  15. Paradigm shifts in fish conservation: moving to the ecosystem services concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowx, I G; Portocarrero Aya, M

    2011-12-01

    Various factors constrain the existence and development of inland fishes and fisheries, such as pollution, habitat degradation, alien invasive species, local user conflicts, low social priority and inadequate research and funding. In many cases, however, degradation of the environment and loss of aquatic habitat are the predominant concerns for the conservation of freshwater aquatic biota. The need for concerted effort to prevent and reduce environmental degradation, as well as protection of freshwater fishes and fisheries as renewable common pool resources or entities in their own right, are the greatest challenges facing the conservation of fishes in inland waters. Unfortunately, traditional conservation practices such as regulation of exploitation, protected areas and habitat restoration have failed to arrest the alarming increase in number of threatened freshwater fish species worldwide. This paper examines the shifting paradigm of fisheries management from rule-based regulation, through fishery enhancement towards the ecosystem approach to fisheries, with reference to inland waters, and how the emerging concept of ecosystem services coupled with traditional fish conservation management practices, institutional restructuring and integrated management planning should provide a more sustainable thrust to formulation and promotion of fish conservation initiatives. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  16. Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Ooi, Ying W

    2018-05-01

    Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. © 2017

  17. Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

    2012-08-01

    Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts

  18. Body-size spectra of biofilm-dwelling protozoa and their seasonal shift in coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lu; Xu, Guangjian; Wang, Zheng; Xu, Henglong

    2016-10-01

    Community-based assessment of protozoa is usually performed at a taxon-dependent resolution. As an inherent 'taxon-free' trait, however, body-size spectrum has proved to be a highly informative indicator to summarize the functional structure of a community in both community research and monitoring programs in aquatic ecosystems. To demonstrate the relationships between the taxon-free resolution of protozoan communities and water conditions, the body-size spectra of biofilm-dwelling protozoa and their seasonal shift and environmental drivers were explored based on an annual dataset collected monthly from coastal waters of the Yellow Sea, northern China. Body sizes were calculated in equivalent spherical diameter (ESD). Among a total of 8 body-size ranks, S2 (19-27μm), S3 (28-36μm), S4 (37-50μm) and S5 (53-71μm) were the top four levels in frequency of occurrence, while rank S1 (13-17μm), S2 and S4 were the dominant levels in abundance. These dominants showed a clear seasonal succession: S2/S4 (spring)→S2/S4 (summer)→S4 (autumn)→S2 (winter) in frequency of occurrence; S1 (spring)→S4 (summer)→S2 (autumn)→S1 (winter) in abundance. Bootstrapped average analysis showed a clear seasonal shift in body-size spectra of the protozoa during a 1-year cycle, and the best-matching analysis demonstrated that the temporal variations in frequency of occurrence and abundance were significantly correlated with water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), alone or in combination with chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nutrients. Thus, the body-size spectra of biofilm-dwelling protozoa were seasonally shaped and might be used as a time and cost efficient bioindicator of water quality in marine ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  19. Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

    2017-02-01

    Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

  20. Response of testate amoebae to a late Holocene ecosystem shift in an Amazonian peatland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindles, Graeme T; Kelly, Thomas J; Roucoux, Katherine H; Lawson, Ian T

    2018-03-15

    To date there have only been two studies using testate amoebae as palaeoecological indicators in tropical peatlands. Here we present a new ∼500-year testate amoeba record from San Jorge, a domed peatland in Peruvian Amazonia, which has a well-constrained vegetation history based on pollen analysis. We observe a major shift from Hyalosphenia subflava to Cryptodifflugia oviformis-dominated communities at ∼50 cm depth (c. AD 1760), which suggests a change to drier conditions in the peatland. The application of a statistical transfer function also suggests a deepening of the water table at this time. The transition in the microbial assemblage occurs at a time when pollen and geochemical data indicate drier conditions (reduced influence of river flooding), leading to an ecosystem switch to more ombrotrophic-like conditions in the peatland. Our work illustrates the potential of testate amoebae as important tools in tropical peatland palaeoecology, and the power of multiproxy approaches for understanding the long-term development of tropical peatlands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  1. Shifts of community composition and population density substantially affect ecosystem function despite invariant richness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spaak, Jurg W.; Baert, Jan M.; Baird, Donald J.; Eisenhauer, Nico; Maltby, Lorraine; Pomati, Francesco; Radchuk, Viktoriia; Rohr, Jason R.; Brink, van den Paul J.; Laender, De Frederik

    2017-01-01

    There has been considerable focus on the impacts of environmental change on ecosystem function arising from changes in species richness. However, environmental change may affect ecosystem function without affecting richness, most notably by affecting population densities and community

  2. Greenness and Carbon Stocks of Mangroves: A climate-driven Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lule, A. V.; Colditz, R. R.; Herrera-Silveira, J.; Guevara, M.; Rodriguez-Zuniga, M. T.; Cruz, I.; Ressl, R.; Vargas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mangroves cover less than 1% of the earth's surface and are one o­­­f the most productive ecosystems of the world. They are highly vulnerable to climate variability due to their sensitivity to environmental changes; therefore, there are scientific and societal needs to designed frameworks to assess mangrove's vulnerability. We study the relationship between climate drivers, canopy greenness and carbon stocks to quantify a potential climate-driven effect on mangrove carbon dynamics. We identify greenness trends and their relationships with climate drivers and carbon stocks throughout 15 years (2001-2015) across mangrove forests of Mexico. We defined several categories for mangroves: a) Arid mangroves with superficial water input (ARsw); b) Humid mangroves with interior or underground water input (HUiw); and c) Humid mangroves with superficial water input (HUsw). We found a positive significant trend of greenness for ARsw and HUsw categories (pmangrove's categories (pmangrove categories showed higher greenness values during winter; which is likely driven by temperature with a lag of -3 to -5 months (r2 > 0.69). Precipitation and temperature drive canopy greenness only across HUsw. Regarding carbon stocks, the HUiw shows the lower amount of aboveground carbon (AGC; 12.7 Mg C ha-1) and the higher belowground carbon (BGC; 219 Mg C ha-1). The HUsw shows the higher amount of AGC (169.5 Mg C ha-1) and the ARsw the lower of BGC (92.4 Mg C ha-1). Climate drivers are better related with canopy greenness and AGC for both humid mangrove categories (r2 > 0.48), while the relationship of BGC and canopy greenness is lower for all categories (r2 mangrove's ecosystem function and environmental services, as well as their potential vulnerability to climate variability.

  3. Shifting spatial priorities for ecosystem services in Europe following land use change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Willem; van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-01-01

    Policy objectives to maintain ecosystem services are increasingly set. Methods to identify priority areas for ecosystem services can assist in the implementation of such policy objectives. While land use change is an important driver of changes in ecosystem services over time, most prioritization

  4. Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

    2013-09-01

    Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our

  5. Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göckede, Mathias; Kittler, Fanny; Kwon, Min Jung; Burjack, Ina; Heimann, Martin; Kolle, Olaf; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergey

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic conditions are a key factor in Arctic ecosystems, with strong influences on ecosystem structure and related effects on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. With systematic changes in water availability expected for large parts of the northern high-latitude region in the coming centuries, knowledge on shifts in ecosystem functionality triggered by altered water levels is crucial for reducing uncertainties in climate change predictions. Here, we present findings from paired ecosystem observations in northeast Siberia comprising a drained and a control site. At the drainage site, the water table has been artificially lowered by up to 30 cm in summer for more than a decade. This sustained primary disturbance in hydrologic conditions has triggered a suite of secondary shifts in ecosystem properties, including vegetation community structure, snow cover dynamics, and radiation budget, all of which influence the net effects of drainage. Reduced thermal conductivity in dry organic soils was identified as the dominating drainage effect on energy budget and soil thermal regime. Through this effect, reduced heat transfer into deeper soil layers leads to shallower thaw depths, initially leading to a stabilization of organic permafrost soils, while the long-term effects on permafrost temperature trends still need to be assessed. At the same time, more energy is transferred back into the atmosphere as sensible heat in the drained area, which may trigger a warming of the lower atmospheric surface layer.

  6. Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Göckede

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic conditions are a key factor in Arctic ecosystems, with strong influences on ecosystem structure and related effects on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. With systematic changes in water availability expected for large parts of the northern high-latitude region in the coming centuries, knowledge on shifts in ecosystem functionality triggered by altered water levels is crucial for reducing uncertainties in climate change predictions. Here, we present findings from paired ecosystem observations in northeast Siberia comprising a drained and a control site. At the drainage site, the water table has been artificially lowered by up to 30 cm in summer for more than a decade. This sustained primary disturbance in hydrologic conditions has triggered a suite of secondary shifts in ecosystem properties, including vegetation community structure, snow cover dynamics, and radiation budget, all of which influence the net effects of drainage. Reduced thermal conductivity in dry organic soils was identified as the dominating drainage effect on energy budget and soil thermal regime. Through this effect, reduced heat transfer into deeper soil layers leads to shallower thaw depths, initially leading to a stabilization of organic permafrost soils, while the long-term effects on permafrost temperature trends still need to be assessed. At the same time, more energy is transferred back into the atmosphere as sensible heat in the drained area, which may trigger a warming of the lower atmospheric surface layer.

  7. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mark Scriber

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

  8. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scriber, Jon Mark

    2013-12-24

    Comprising 50%-75% of the world's fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including "invasive species" in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. "Invasive genes" (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. "Genetic rescue" via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced "reshuffling" (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes may become

  9. Shifts in ecosystem services in deprived urban areas: understanding people's responses and consequences for well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marthe L. Derkzen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Urban commons are under pressure. City development has led to the encroachment and ecological degradation of urban open space. Although there is growing insight that urban ecosystems need to be protected, there is hardly any attention for the consequences (of both pressures and protection efforts for vulnerable human population groups. We aim to understand how urban development affects the well-being of the urban poor, through shifts in ecosystem services (ES and people's responses to these shifts. We performed household interviews and group mapping sessions in seven urban lake communities in Bangalore, India. Changes at Bangalore's lakes can be summarized by three trends: privatization followed by conversion, pollution followed by degradation, and restoration followed by gentrification. Over time, this resulted in a shift in the types of ES supplied and demanded, the nature of use, and de facto governance: from provisioning, communal and public; to cultural, individual, and private. Lake dwellers responded by finding (other sources of income, accepting lower quality or less accessible ES, and/or completely stopping the use of certain ES. The consequences of ecosystem change for people's well-being differ depending on a household's ability to adapt and on individual circumstances, land tenure and financial capital in particular. To guarantee a future for Bangalore's lakes, restoration seems the only viable option. Although beautiful lake parks may be a solution for the well-off and not-too-poor, leaving the very poor without options to adapt to the new circumstances puts them at risk of becoming even more marginalized. We show that ecosystem degradation and restoration alike can impact the well-being of the urban poor. People's experiences allowed us to couple ecosystem change to well-being through ES and adaptation strategies. Hence, we revealed multiple cause-effect relations. Understanding these relations contributes to sustainable urban

  10. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem to a methane source

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, A.L.; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Blok, D.; Limpens, J.; Elberling, B.; Gallagher, A.; Li, B.; Petrov, R.E.; Maximov, T.C.; Huissteden, van J.; Berendse, F.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic tundra ecosystems are warming almost twice as fast as the global average1. Permafrost thaw and the resulting release of greenhouse gases from decomposing soil organic carbon have the potential to accelerate climate warming2, 3. In recent decades, Arctic tundra ecosystems have changed

  11. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem into methane source

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, A.L.; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Blok, D.; Limpens, J.; Elberling, B.; Gallagher, A.; Li, B.; Petrov, R.E.; Maximov, T.C.; van Huissteden, J.; Berendse, F.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic tundra ecosystems are warming almost twice as fast as the global average. Permafrost thaw and the resulting release of greenhouse gases from decomposing soil organic carbon have the potential to accelerate climate warming. In recent decades, Arctic tundra ecosystems have changed rapidly,

  12. Property rights, institutional regime shifts and the provision of freshwater ecosystem services on the Pongola River floodplain, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bimo Abraham Nkhata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a property rights perspective to interpret institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. Institutional regime shifts are conceived as persistent changes in the structure and function of a system. Property rights are viewed as an important component of institutional regimes. The paper draws on a case study of flow regulation on the Pongolo Floodplain in South Africa to illustrate the central role of property rights in mediating institutional regime shifts. The case study illustrates that there are many combinations of property rights that underpin institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. It provides useful insights into the consequences of failing to recognize, establish and enforce bundles of rights. A major thrust of the case study is that the nature and context of property rights are important in determining the long-term provision of these services. By examining the configurations of property rights that have governed the Pongola River floodplain over the years, the paper demonstrates the importance of explicitly defining and categorizing the range of rights.

  13. Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Owen; Mushet, David M.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; LaBaugh, James W.

    2017-01-01

    Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region. We explored numerous lines of evidence to identify: (1) how the recent wet period compared to historical variability, (2) hydrological, geochemical, and biological responses, and (3) how these responses might represent a state shift in the region’s wetland ecosystems. We analyzed long-term climate records and compared how different hydrological variables responded in this wet period compared to decades before the observed shift. Additionally, we used multi-decadal records of waterfowl population and subsurface tile drain records to explore wildlife and human responses to a shifting climate. Since 1993, a novel precipitation regime corresponded with increased pond numbers, ponded-water depths, lake levels, stream flows, groundwater heights, soil-moisture, waterfowl populations, and installation of subsurface tile drains in agricultural fields. These observed changes reflect an alteration in water storage and movement across the landscape that in turn has altered solute sources and concentrations of prairie-pothole wetlands and has increased pond permanence. Combined, these changes represent significant evidence for a state shift in the ecohydrological functioning of the region’s wetland ecosystems, a shift that may require a significant refinement of the previously developed “wetland continuum” concept.

  14. Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

    2017-01-01

    The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Identifying Shifts in Leaf-Litter Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae across Ecosystem Boundaries Using Multiple Sampling Methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Wiezik

    Full Text Available Global or regional environmental changes in climate or land use have been increasingly implied in shifts in boundaries (ecotones between adjacent ecosystems such as beech or oak-dominated forests and forest-steppe ecotones that frequently co-occur near the southern range limits of deciduous forest biome in Europe. Yet, our ability to detect changes in biological communities across these ecosystems, or to understand their environmental drivers, can be hampered when different sampling methods are required to characterize biological communities of the adjacent but ecologically different ecosystems. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae have been shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and vegetation and they require different sampling methods in closed vs. open habitats. We compared ant assemblages of closed-forests (beech- or oak-dominated and open forest-steppe habitats in southwestern Carpathians using methods for closed-forest (litter sifting and open habitats (pitfall trapping, and developed an integrated sampling approach to characterize changes in ant assemblages across these adjacent ecosystems. Using both methods, we collected 5,328 individual ant workers from 28 species. Neither method represented ant communities completely, but pitfall trapping accounted for more species (24 than litter sifting (16. Although pitfall trapping characterized differences in species richness and composition among the ecosystems better, with beech forest being most species poor and ecotone most species rich, litter sifting was more successful in identifying characteristic litter-dwelling species in oak-dominated forest. The integrated sampling approach using both methods yielded more accurate characterization of species richness and composition, and particularly so in species-rich forest-steppe habitat where the combined sample identified significantly higher number of species compared to either of the two methods on their own. Thus, an integrated

  16. Identifying Shifts in Leaf-Litter Ant Assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) across Ecosystem Boundaries Using Multiple Sampling Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiezik, Michal; Svitok, Marek; Wieziková, Adela; Dovčiak, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Global or regional environmental changes in climate or land use have been increasingly implied in shifts in boundaries (ecotones) between adjacent ecosystems such as beech or oak-dominated forests and forest-steppe ecotones that frequently co-occur near the southern range limits of deciduous forest biome in Europe. Yet, our ability to detect changes in biological communities across these ecosystems, or to understand their environmental drivers, can be hampered when different sampling methods are required to characterize biological communities of the adjacent but ecologically different ecosystems. Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) have been shown to be particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and vegetation and they require different sampling methods in closed vs. open habitats. We compared ant assemblages of closed-forests (beech- or oak-dominated) and open forest-steppe habitats in southwestern Carpathians using methods for closed-forest (litter sifting) and open habitats (pitfall trapping), and developed an integrated sampling approach to characterize changes in ant assemblages across these adjacent ecosystems. Using both methods, we collected 5,328 individual ant workers from 28 species. Neither method represented ant communities completely, but pitfall trapping accounted for more species (24) than litter sifting (16). Although pitfall trapping characterized differences in species richness and composition among the ecosystems better, with beech forest being most species poor and ecotone most species rich, litter sifting was more successful in identifying characteristic litter-dwelling species in oak-dominated forest. The integrated sampling approach using both methods yielded more accurate characterization of species richness and composition, and particularly so in species-rich forest-steppe habitat where the combined sample identified significantly higher number of species compared to either of the two methods on their own. Thus, an integrated sampling

  17. Nutrient reduction and climate change cause a potential shift from pelagic to benthic pathways in a eutrophic marine ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Blenckner, T.; Stenseth, N.C.

    2012-01-01

    The degree to which marine ecosystems may support the pelagic or benthic food chain has been shown to vary across natural and anthropogenic gradients for e.g., in temperature and nutrient availability. Moreover, such external forcing may not only affect the flux of organic matter but could trigger...... variables across all trophic levels, we here propose a potential regime shift from pelagic to benthic regulatory pathways; a possible first sign of recovery from eutrophication likely triggered by drastic nutrient reductions (involving both nitrogen and phosphorus), in combination with climate...

  18. Shifts of microbial communities of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivation in a closed artificial ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Youcai; Fu, Yuming; Dong, Chen; Jia, Nannan; Liu, Hong

    2016-05-01

    The microbial communities of plant ecosystems are in relation to plant growing environment, but the alteration in biodiversity of rhizosphere and phyllosphere microbial communities in closed and controlled environments is unknown. The purpose of this study is to analyze the change regularity of microbial communities with wheat plants dependent-cultivated in a closed artificial ecosystem. The microbial community structures in closed-environment treatment plants were investigated by a culture-dependent approach, polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE), and Illumina Miseq high-throughput sequencing. The results indicated that the number of microbes decreased along with time, and the magnitude of bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes were 10(7)-10(8), 10(5), and 10(3)-10(4) CFU/g (dry weight), respectively. The analysis of PCR-DGGE and Illumina Miseq revealed that the wheat leaf surface and near-root substrate had different microbial communities at different periods of wheat ecosystem development and showed that the relative highest diversity of microbial communities appeared at late and middle periods of the plant ecosystem, respectively. The results also indicated that the wheat leaf and substrate had different microbial community compositions, and the wheat substrate had higher richness of microbial community than the leaf. Flavobacterium, Pseudomonas, Paenibacillus, Enterobacter, Penicillium, Rhodotorula, Acremonium, and Alternaria were dominant in the wheat leaf samples, and Pedobacter, Flavobacterium, Halomonas, Marinobacter, Salinimicrobium, Lysobacter, Pseudomonas, Halobacillus, Xanthomonas, Acremonium, Monographella, and Penicillium were dominant populations in the wheat near-root substrate samples.

  19. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2010-09-01

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  20. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fort, H; Mazzeo, N; Scheffer, M; Nes, E van

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  1. Climate-Driven Changes Within the Larch Forest of Northern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.

    2015-12-01

    Thanks to the support of NASA's Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Focus Area programs, joint NASA/ Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences studies have been conducted throughout Siberia. The overall objective has been to obtain field and satellite measurements to examine carbon stocks and track changes in forests across this vast area. In this presentation, we discuss some of the finding from this 25+ year collaboration' i.e., observed climate-driven changes within larch communities in northern Siberia. Field measurements and satellite data, including Terra/MODIS, Landsat, GRACE and QuickBird were used for analysis of forest conditions. The following results will be discussed. (1). At the northern limit of larch (Larix gmelinii) range (i.e.,~72°N) tree mortality was observed during the cooling period from the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century. Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) trees re-establishment followed warming temperatures by the middle of the19th century. The current tree line has recovered to the pre-LIA line location although tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower. The mean rate of upward migration was found to be 0.35 m yr-1 (with a range of 0.21-0.58). (2) The migration of the "dark needle conifers" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) into the southern margin zone of larch dominated forest was documented. Meanwhile, within the traditional DNC range decline and mortality of both Siberian pine and fir were observed and attributed, primarily, due to an increased drought. (3) Within Central Siberia larch growth is limited by early summer temperatures and available water from thawing permafrost. Larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), drought (SPEI; r = 0.68-0.82), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), previous year precipitation (r = 0.63) and soil water anomalies (r = 0.79). Larch TRW growth and Gross Primary Productivity

  2. Shifts in alpine lakes' ecosystems in Japan driven by increasing Asian dusts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsugeki, N. K.; Tani, Y.; Ueda, S.; Agusa, T.; Toyoda, K.; Kuwae, M.; Oda, H.; Tanabe, S.; Urabe, J.

    2011-12-01

    Recently in East Asia the amount of fossil fuel combustion have increased with economic growth. It has caused a problem of trans-boundary air pollution in the whole of eastern Asia. Furthermore, Asian dust storms contribute episodically to the global aerosol load. However, the effects of increased Asian dusts on aquatic ecosystems are not well understood. If biologically important nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are transported via air dust, the atmospheric deposition of the dust may have serious impacts on recipient aquatic ecosystems because the biological production is limited by these nutrient elements. A previous report using sedimentary records has evaluated that atmospheric P inputs to the alpine lakes in the United States increased fivefold following the increased western settlement to this country during the nineteenth century. Since P is the most deficient nutrient for production in many lakes increase in P loading through atmospheric deposition of anthropogenically-derived dust might greatly affect the lake ecosystems. We examined fossil pigments and zooplankton remains from Pb-dated sediments taken from a high mountain lake of Hourai-Numa, located in the Towada-Hachimantai National Park of Japan, to uncover historical changes in the phyto- and zooplankton community over the past 100 years. Simultaneously, we measured the biogeochemical variables of TOC, TN, TP, δ13C, δ15N, and 206Pb/207Pb, 208Pb/207Pb in the sediments to identify environmental factors causing such changes. As a result, despite little anthropogenic activities in the watersheds, alpine lakes in Japan Islands increased algal and herbivore plankton biomasses by 3-6 folds for recent years depending on terrestrial the surrounded vegetations and landscape conditions. Biological and biogeochemical proxies recorded in the lake sediments indicate that this eutrophication occurred after the 1990s when P deposition increased due to atmospheric loading transported from Asian

  3. Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Adams, Layne G.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.

  4. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Tropical Atlantic climate and ecosystem regime shifts during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieling, Joost; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röhl, Ursula; Westerhold, Thomas; Bohaty, Steven M.; Sluijs, Appy

    2018-01-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma) was a phase of rapid global warming associated with massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system from a 13C-depleted reservoir. Many midlatitude and high-latitude sections have been studied and document changes in salinity, hydrology and sedimentation, deoxygenation, biotic overturning, and migrations, but detailed records from tropical regions are lacking. Here, we study the PETM at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 959 in the equatorial Atlantic using a range of organic and inorganic proxies and couple these with dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblage analysis. The PETM at Site 959 was previously found to be marked by a ˜ 3.8 ‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and a ˜ 4 °C surface ocean warming from the uppermost Paleocene to peak PETM, of which ˜ 1 °C occurs before the onset of the CIE. We record upper Paleocene dinocyst assemblages that are similar to PETM assemblages as found in extratropical regions, confirming poleward migrations of ecosystems during the PETM. The early stages of the PETM are marked by a typical acme of the tropical genus Apectodinium, which reaches abundances of up to 95 %. Subsequently, dinocyst abundances diminish greatly, as do carbonate and pyritized silicate microfossils. The combined paleoenvironmental information from Site 959 and a close-by shelf site in Nigeria implies the general absence of eukaryotic surface-dwelling microplankton during peak PETM warmth in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, most likely caused by heat stress. We hypothesize, based on a literature survey, that heat stress might have reduced calcification in more tropical regions, potentially contributing to reduced deep sea carbonate accumulation rates, and, by buffering acidification, also to biological carbonate compensation of the injected carbon during the PETM. Crucially, abundant organic benthic foraminiferal linings imply sustained export production, likely driven by prokaryotes. In

  6. Tropical Atlantic climate and ecosystem regime shifts during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frieling

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma was a phase of rapid global warming associated with massive carbon input into the ocean–atmosphere system from a 13C-depleted reservoir. Many midlatitude and high-latitude sections have been studied and document changes in salinity, hydrology and sedimentation, deoxygenation, biotic overturning, and migrations, but detailed records from tropical regions are lacking. Here, we study the PETM at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP Site 959 in the equatorial Atlantic using a range of organic and inorganic proxies and couple these with dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst assemblage analysis. The PETM at Site 959 was previously found to be marked by a  ∼  3.8 ‰ negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE and a  ∼  4 °C surface ocean warming from the uppermost Paleocene to peak PETM, of which  ∼  1 °C occurs before the onset of the CIE. We record upper Paleocene dinocyst assemblages that are similar to PETM assemblages as found in extratropical regions, confirming poleward migrations of ecosystems during the PETM. The early stages of the PETM are marked by a typical acme of the tropical genus Apectodinium, which reaches abundances of up to 95 %. Subsequently, dinocyst abundances diminish greatly, as do carbonate and pyritized silicate microfossils. The combined paleoenvironmental information from Site 959 and a close-by shelf site in Nigeria implies the general absence of eukaryotic surface-dwelling microplankton during peak PETM warmth in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, most likely caused by heat stress. We hypothesize, based on a literature survey, that heat stress might have reduced calcification in more tropical regions, potentially contributing to reduced deep sea carbonate accumulation rates, and, by buffering acidification, also to biological carbonate compensation of the injected carbon during the PETM. Crucially, abundant organic benthic foraminiferal linings imply

  7. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Adam J; Thatje, Sven; Linse, Katrin

    2012-01-01

    The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  8. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem to a methane source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Ake L.; Heijmans, Monique P.D.; Blok, Daan

    2015-01-01

    , including expansion of woody vegetation5,6, in response to changing climate conditions. How such vegetation changes contribute to stabilization or destabilization of the permafrost is unknown. Here we present six years of field observations in a shrub removal experiment at a Siberian tundra site. Removing...... the shrub part of the vegetation initiated thawing of ice-rich permafrost, resulting in collapse of the originally elevated shrub patches into waterlogged depressions within five years. This thaw pond development shifted the plots from a methane sink into a methane source. The results of our field......-emitting wet depressions could become more abundant in the lowland tundra landscape, at the cost of permafrost-stabilizing low shrub vegetation....

  9. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Reed

    Full Text Available The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  10. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schmid, B. V.; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. R.; Ginzler, Ch.; Walloe, L.; Bramanti, B.; Stenseth, N. C.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 112, č. 10 (2015), s. 3020-3025 ISSN 0027-8424 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : yersinia-pestis * xenopsylla-cheopis * bubonic plague * central-asia * synchrony * dynamics * transmission * temperature * populations * thresholds * Yersinia pestis * medieval epidemiology * climate-driven disease dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 9.423, year: 2015 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/10/3020.full.pdf

  11. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanberry, Brice B; Dey, Dan C; He, Hong S

    2012-01-01

    Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and conservation that rely on

  12. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brice B Hanberry

    Full Text Available Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850 and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008, we compared composition, distribution, and site factors of 21 tree species or species groups in the Missouri Ozarks. We used 24 environmental variables and random forests as a classification method to model distributions. Eastern redcedar, elms, maples, and other fire-sensitive species have increased in dominance in oak forests, with concurrent reductions by oak species; specific changes varied by ecological subsection. Ordinations displayed loss of separation between formerly distinctive oak and fire-sensitive tree species groups. Distribution maps showed decreased presence of disturbance-dependent oak and pine species and increased presence of fire-sensitive species that generally expanded from subsections protected from fire along rivers to upland areas, except for eastern redcedar, which expanded into these subsections. Large scale differences in spatial gradients between past and present communities paralleled reduced influence of local topographic gradients in the varied relief of the Missouri Ozarks, as fire-sensitive species have moved to higher, drier, and sunnier sites away from riverine corridors. Due to changes in land use, landscapes in the Missouri Ozarks, eastern United States, and world-wide are changing from open oak and pine-dominated ecosystems to novel oak-mixed species forests, although at fine scales, forests are becoming more diverse in tree species today. Fire suppression weakened the influence by environmental gradients over species dominance, allowing succession from disturbance-dependent oaks to an alternative state of fire-sensitive species. Current and future research and

  13. Climate change implications of shifting forest management strategy in a boreal forest ecosystem of Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, Ryan M; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Astrup, Rasmus; Cherubini, Francesco; Kvalevåg, Maria; Strømman, Anders H

    2014-02-01

    Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand-level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear-cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of −0.13 °C at a deciduous site and −0.25 °C at a clear-cut site were observed over a 6-year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes – despite predicted long-term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business-as-usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO2 emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned −8 to −159 Tg-CO2-eq., depending on whether near-term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately −20 to −300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon-only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive – and at best – suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a

  14. Spectral decomposition of regulatory thresholds for climate-driven fluctuations in hydro- and wind power availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wörman, A.; Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Zmijewski, N.; Riml, J.

    2017-08-01

    Climate-driven fluctuations in the runoff and potential energy of surface water are generally large in comparison to the capacity of hydropower regulation, particularly when hydropower is used to balance the electricity production from covarying renewable energy sources such as wind power. To define the bounds of reservoir storage capacity, we introduce a dedicated reservoir volume that aggregates the storage capacity of several reservoirs to handle runoff from specific watersheds. We show how the storage bounds can be related to a spectrum of the climate-driven modes of variability in water availability and to the covariation between water and wind availability. A regional case study of the entire hydropower system in Sweden indicates that the longest regulation period possible to consider spans from a few days of individual subwatersheds up to several years, with an average limit of a couple of months. Watershed damping of the runoff substantially increases the longest considered regulation period and capacity. The high covariance found between the potential energy of the surface water and wind energy significantly reduces the longest considered regulation period when hydropower is used to balance the fluctuating wind power.

  15. Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

    2015-12-01

    Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  17. Making the ecosystem approach operational-Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Österblom, H.; Gårdmark, A.; Bergström, L.

    2010-01-01

    Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social–ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem...... stimulating innovations and re-organizing governance structures at drainage basin level to the Baltic Sea catchment as a whole. Experimentation and innovation at local to the regional levels is critical for a transition to ecosystem-based management. Establishing science-based learning platforms at sub...

  18. Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hicks Pries, C.E.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Schuur, E.A.G.; Natali, S.M.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Aerts, R.; Dorrepaal, E.

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change

  19. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

  20. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myksvoll, Mari S; Erikstad, Kjell E; Barrett, Robert T; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

    2013-01-01

    Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  1. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari S Myksvoll

    Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  2. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2015-01-01

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  3. Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local

  4. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

  5. Shifts in ecosystem services in deprived urban areas : Understanding people’s responses and consequences for well-being

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derkzen, Marthe L.; Nagendra, Harini; Van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.; Purushotham, Anusha; Verburg, Peter H.

    2017-01-01

    Urban commons are under pressure. City development has led to the encroachment and ecological degradation of urban open space. Although there is growing insight that urban ecosystems need to be protected, there is hardly any attention for the consequences (of both pressures and protection efforts)

  6. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

  7. Cross-site comparisons of concentration-discharge relationships reveal climate-driven chemostatic set points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsey, S.; Kirchner, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow solute concentrations often vary predictably with flows, providing insight into processes controlling solute generation and export. Previous work by the authors showed that log-transformed concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments had relatively low slopes, implying that these watersheds behaved almost like chemostats. That is, their rates of solute production and/or mobilization were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 sq. km in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings.Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described above. However, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations among these catchments are negatively correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. Thus, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. We present examples illustrating short-term and long-term controls on water quality consistent with variations in weather and climate, and discuss their implications.

  8. Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kicklighter, D W; Melillo, J M; Lu, X; Cai, Y; Paltsev, S; Sokolov, A P; Reilly, J M; Zhuang, Q; Parfenova, E I; Tchebakova, N M

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region’s landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies. (paper)

  9. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluate...

  10. Surface area changes of Himalayan ponds as a proxy of hydrological climate-driven fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Franco; Thakuri, Sudeep; Guyennon, Nicolas; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

    2016-04-01

    The meteorological measurements at high-elevations of the Himalayan range are scarce due to the harsh conditions of these environments which limit the suitable maintenance of weather stations. As a consequence, the meager knowledge on how the climate is changed in the last decades at Himalayan high-elevations sets a serious limit upon the interpretation of relationships between causes and recent observed effects on the cryosphere. Although the glaciers masses reduction in Himalaya is currently sufficiently well described, how changes in climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) have influenced the melting and shrinkage processes are less clear. Consequently, the uncertainty related to the recent past amplifies when future forecasts are done, both for climate and impacts. In this context, a substantial body of research has already demonstrated the high sensitivity of lakes and ponds to climate. Some climate-related signals are highly visible and easily measurable in lakes. For example, climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area have been observed in many remote sites. On interior Tibetan Plateau the lake growth since the late 1990s is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation and weakened evaporation. Differently, other authors attribute at the observed increases of lake surfaces at the enhanced glacier melting. In our opinion these divergences found in literature are due to the type of glacial lakes considered in the study and in particular their relationship with glaciers. In general, in Himalaya three types of glacial lakes can be distinguished: (i) lakes that are not directly connected with glaciers, but that may have a glacier located in their basin (unconnected glacial lakes); (ii) supraglacial lakes, which develop on the surface of the glacier downstream; or (iii) proglacial lakes, which are moraine-dammed lakes that are in contact with the glacier front. Some of these lakes store large quantities of water and are susceptible to GLOFs

  11. Theropod Fauna from Southern Australia Indicates High Polar Diversity and Climate-Driven Dinosaur Provinciality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Roger B. J.; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

    2012-01-01

    hallmark ‘Gondwanan’ fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels. PMID:22615916

  12. Deep Ion Torrent sequencing identifies soil fungal community shifts after frequent prescribed fires in a southeastern US forest ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Shawn P; Callaham, Mac A; Oliver, Alena K; Jumpponen, Ari

    2013-12-01

    Prescribed burning is a common management tool to control fuel loads, ground vegetation, and facilitate desirable game species. We evaluated soil fungal community responses to long-term prescribed fire treatments in a loblolly pine forest on the Piedmont of Georgia and utilized deep Internal Transcribed Spacer Region 1 (ITS1) amplicon sequencing afforded by the recent Ion Torrent Personal Genome Machine (PGM). These deep sequence data (19,000 + reads per sample after subsampling) indicate that frequent fires (3-year fire interval) shift soil fungus communities, whereas infrequent fires (6-year fire interval) permit system resetting to a state similar to that without prescribed fire. Furthermore, in nonmetric multidimensional scaling analyses, primarily ectomycorrhizal taxa were correlated with axes associated with long fire intervals, whereas soil saprobes tended to be correlated with the frequent fire recurrence. We conclude that (1) multiplexed Ion Torrent PGM analyses allow deep cost effective sequencing of fungal communities but may suffer from short read lengths and inconsistent sequence quality adjacent to the sequencing adaptor; (2) frequent prescribed fires elicit a shift in soil fungal communities; and (3) such shifts do not occur when fire intervals are longer. Our results emphasize the general responsiveness of these forests to management, and the importance of fire return intervals in meeting management objectives. © 2013 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Exploring Ecosystems and Health by Shifting to a Regional Focus: Perspectives from the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Kingsley

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights contributions that can be made to the public health field by incorporating “ecosystem approaches to health” to tackle future environmental and health challenges at a regional level. This qualitative research reviews attitudes and understandings of the relationship between public health and the environment and the priorities, aspirations and challenges of a newly established group (the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter who are attempting to promote these principles. Ten semi-structured interviews with Oceania EcoHealth Chapter members highlighted the important role such groups can play in informing organisations working in the Oceania region to improve both public health and environmental outcomes simultaneously. Participants of this study emphasise the need to elevate Indigenous knowledge in Oceania and the role regional groups play in this regard. They also emphasis that regional advocacy and ecosystem approaches to health could bypass silos in knowledge and disciplinary divides, with groups like the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter acting as a mechanism for knowledge exchange, engagement, and action at a regional level with its ability to bridge the gap between environmental stewardship and public health.

  14. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

  15. Exploring Ecosystems and Health by Shifting to a Regional Focus: Perspectives from the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsley, Jonathan; Patrick, Rebecca; Horwitz, Pierre; Parkes, Margot; Jenkins, Aaron; Massy, Charles; Henderson-Wilson, Claire; Arabena, Kerry

    2015-01-01

    This article highlights contributions that can be made to the public health field by incorporating “ecosystem approaches to health” to tackle future environmental and health challenges at a regional level. This qualitative research reviews attitudes and understandings of the relationship between public health and the environment and the priorities, aspirations and challenges of a newly established group (the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter) who are attempting to promote these principles. Ten semi-structured interviews with Oceania EcoHealth Chapter members highlighted the important role such groups can play in informing organisations working in the Oceania region to improve both public health and environmental outcomes simultaneously. Participants of this study emphasise the need to elevate Indigenous knowledge in Oceania and the role regional groups play in this regard. They also emphasis that regional advocacy and ecosystem approaches to health could bypass silos in knowledge and disciplinary divides, with groups like the Oceania EcoHealth Chapter acting as a mechanism for knowledge exchange, engagement, and action at a regional level with its ability to bridge the gap between environmental stewardship and public health. PMID:26473903

  16. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

  17. Ecosystem Alterations and Species Range Shifts: An Atlantic-Mediterranean Cephalaspidean Gastropod in an Inland Egyptian Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaquias, Manuel António E.

    2016-01-01

    The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt), a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy) and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny). Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown. PMID:27248835

  18. Ecosystem Alterations and Species Range Shifts: An Atlantic-Mediterranean Cephalaspidean Gastropod in an Inland Egyptian Lake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Cruz-Rivera

    Full Text Available The eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean marine Cephalaspidea gastropod Haminoea orbignyana was collected from Lake Qarun (Fayoum, Egypt, a landlocked lake that has undergone a shift from freshwater to estuarine conditions in the past 100 years. Species identity was confirmed by both morphological (anatomical dissection and scanning electron microscopy and molecular methods (COI gene phylogeny. Observations suggested a robust population of H. orbignyana in the lake with a density of ca. 64 individuals/m2 and ca. 105 egg masses/m2 during surveys conducted in the summer of 2013. The vast majority of snails and egg masses were found under rocks. Observations of egg masses in the lab showed a gradual change from whitish to yellow-green as the eggs matured and the release of veliger larvae alone after about a week. Although adult cephalaspideans readily consumed filamentous red and green algae, and cyanobacteria, laboratory trials showed that they consumed significantly more of the red alga Ceramium sp., than of the green alga Cladophora glomerata, with consumption of Oscillatoria margaritifera being similar to those on the two algae. When grown on these resources for 16 days, H. orbignyana maintained their mass on the rhodophyte and cyanobacterium, but not in starvation controls. No cephalaspideans grew over the course of this experiment. Lake Qarun has been periodically restocked with Mediterranean fishes and prawns since the 1920s to maintain local fisheries, which represents a possible route of colonization for H. orbignyana. Yet, based on literature records, it seems more likely that invasion of the lake by this gastropod species has occurred only within the last 20 years. As human activities redistribute species through direct and indirect means, the structure of the community of this inland lake has become unpredictable and the long-term effects of these recent introductions are unknown.

  19. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  20. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-09-07

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. © 2015 The Authors.

  1. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  2. Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moellmann, C; Diekmann, Rabea; Muller-Karulis, B

    2009-01-01

    the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto......Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure...

  3. Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

    2016-06-01

    Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes ( Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reefs: present-day reefs that are vulnerable to climate-induced coral bleaching, and reefs with more bleaching-robust coral taxa, thereby simulating the likely future of coral reefs under a warming climate. Fish communities were allowed to establish naturally on the reefs during the summer recruitment period. Climate-robust reefs had lower total species richness of coral-reef fishes than climate-vulnerable reefs, but total fish abundance was not significantly different between reef types (pooled across all species and life-history stages). The nature of aggressive interactions, measured as the number of aggressive chases, varied according to coral composition; on climate-robust reefs, juveniles used the substratum less often to avoid aggression from competitors, and interspecific aggression became relatively more frequent than intraspecific aggression for juveniles of the coral-obligate P. moluccensis. This study highlights the importance of coral composition as a determinant of behaviour and diversity of coral-reef fishes.

  4. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep; Tian, Feng; Schurgers, Guy; Verger, Aleixandre; Mertz, Ole; Palmer, John R B; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-03-06

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody vegetation. There is thus an incomplete understanding of how woody vegetation responds to socio-economic and environmental change. Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992-2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km 2 ) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km 2 ), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO 2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and carbon stocks. This nuanced picture of changes in woody cover challenges widely held views of a general and ongoing reduction of the woody vegetation in Africa.

  5. River piracy and drainage basin reorganization led by climate-driven glacier retreat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, Daniel H.; Clague, John J.; Best, James L.; Schoof, Christian; Willis, Michael J.; Copland, Luke; Roe, Gerard H.

    2017-04-01

    River piracy--the diversion of the headwaters of one stream into another one--can dramatically change the routing of water and sediment, with a profound effect on landscape evolution. Stream piracy has been investigated in glacial environments, but so far it has mainly been studied over Quaternary or longer timescales. Here we document how retreat of Kaskawulsh Glacier--one of Canada's largest glaciers--abruptly and radically altered the regional drainage pattern in spring 2016. We use a combination of hydrological measurements and drone-generated digital elevation models to show that in late May 2016, meltwater from the glacier was re-routed from discharge in a northward direction into the Bering Sea, to southward into the Pacific Ocean. Based on satellite image analysis and a signal-to-noise ratio as a metric of glacier retreat, we conclude that this instance of river piracy was due to post-industrial climate change. Rapid regional drainage reorganizations of this type can have profound downstream impacts on ecosystems, sediment and carbon budgets, and downstream communities that rely on a stable and sustained discharge. We suggest that the planforms of Slims and Kaskawulsh rivers will adjust in response to altered flows, and the future Kaskawulsh watershed will extend into the now-abandoned headwaters of Slims River and eventually capture the Kluane Lake drainage.

  6. A First Regional-Scale Estimate of Climate-Driven Terrestrial Carbon Export in Boreal Catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazzareno Diodato

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Highly dynamic hydro-geomorphic processes are known to drive exports of carbon (C from river basins, but are not yet fully understood. Within this study, we simulated total organic carbon (TOC exports at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi in the Gulf of Bothnia (Finland with a parsimonious hydrological model. With thorough consideration of the dependence of erosion and sediment transport processes on seasonal precipitation rates, a satisfactory agreement was obtained between modelling and experimental observations (1962–2005. This provided confidence in the capability of the parsimonious model to represent temporal and spatial export dynamics. In the period 1860–2014, TOC export at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi was estimated to be highest on average (~5.5 Mg km−2·year−1 over 1974–2014 while the lowest TOC export (~2.5 Mg km−2·year−1 was estimated in 1860–1918 (with high levels of interannual-to-multidecadal variation. Regional simulations indicate that TOC increased in recent decades (on average, 4–5 Mg km−2·year−1 in 1974–2014 against ~3 Mg km−2·year−1 in 1940–1973 in northern Scandinavia and Finland. Warming-induced variability of TOC (which depends on precipitation patterns may have altered the rates of C exchanges in aquatic ecosystems over recent years. TOC exports may continue to increase in boreal catchments with increasing temperatures as represented by future projections.

  7. Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia

  8. The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachatryan, S.

    2009-05-01

    Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

  9. A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Jacobs

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality and space (geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios.

  10. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G W

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the

  11. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol, Janet; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G.W.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the

  12. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

  13. Disentangling the climate-driven bimodal growth pattern in coastal and continental Mediterranean pine stands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Ribas, Montse; Gazol, Antonio; Gutierrez, E; Carrer, Marco

    2018-02-15

    Mediterranean climate promotes two distinct growth peaks separated by summer quiescence in trees. This bimodal pattern has been associated to favourable growing conditions during spring and autumn when mild temperatures and soil-water availability enhance cambial activity. Climatic models predict progressive warming and drying for the Mediterranean Basin, which could shorten or shift the spring and autumn growing seasons. We explored this idea by comparing two sites with different Mediterranean climate types (continental/dry and coastal/wet) and studied how climate drives the bimodal growth pattern in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis). Specifically we investigated the intra-annual changes in wood anatomy and the corresponding formation of density fluctuations (IADF). Trees on both sites were analyzed by dendrometer monitoring and by developing chronologies of wood anatomical traits. Radial-increment dynamics followed a similar bimodal pattern in both sites but coastal trees showed higher increments during the spring and autumn growth peaks, especially in autumn. The summer rest of cambium activity occurs almost one month earlier in the coastal than in the inland site. Lumen area and cell-wall thickness were significantly smaller in the continental site, while the increment rate of cell-wall thickness during an IADF event was much higher in the coastal pines. The accumulated soil moisture deficit was the main climatic constraint of tracheid enlargement in continental pines. Intra-annual density fluctuations were more frequent in the coastal trees where wood anatomy features recover to average values after such events, meanwhile inland trees presented a much lower recovery rate. Growth bimodality and the formation of density fluctuations were linked, but mild climate of the coastal site allows a longer growing season, which explains why trees in this area showed higher and more variable growth rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  15. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David D Gustine

    Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  16. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  17. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

  18. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

  19. Will the balance of power shift among native eastern Pacific estuary ecosystem engineers with the introduced bopyrid isopod parasite orthione griffenis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The blue mud shrimp, Upogebia pugettensis, the bay ghost shrimp, Neotrypaea californiensis, and eelgrass, Zostera marina are endemic ecosystem engineers that define the ecological structure and function of estuaries along the Pacific coast of the US as significantly as do marshes...

  20. Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

  1. North Atlantic ecosystem shifts revealed by cod otolith δ15N and δ13C chronologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jens Brøgger; Nielsen, Jens Munk; Steingrund, Petur

    . To study the link between environmental changes and ecosystem trophic structure we developed δ15N and δ13C chronologies by analyzing the organic matrix of cod otoliths from the Faroe Shelf cod population (1950-2010) and the Nuuk Fjord cod population (1927-2009). Significant correlations between δ15N & δ13C...... of organic matrix of otolith core material (Nuuk Fjord) and annual growth increments in Ocean Quahog (A. Islandica) shells will be included.......Changes in climate and exploitation have caused large fluctuations in the productivity of many North Atlantic cod populations and the collapse of many cod fisheries. These fluctuations are most likely due to a combined effect of physical processes and changes in ecosystem trophic structure...

  2. Linking ecosystem scale vegetation change to shifts in carbon and water cycling: the consequences of widespread piñon mortality in the Southwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvak, Marcy Ellen [University of New Mexico

    2012-10-01

    The southwestern United States experienced an extended drought from 1999-2002 which led to widespread coniferous tree mortality. Piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands, which occupy 24 million ha throughout the Southwest, were extremely vulnerable to this drought. An abrupt die-off of 40 to 95% of piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and 2-25% of juniper (Juniperus monosperma) across 1.5 million ha triggered rapid and extensive changes in the structure of PJ woodlands with potentially large, yet unknown, consequences for ecosystem services and feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate system. Given the spatial extent of PJ woodlands (3rd largest biome in the US) and climatic predictions of increased frequency and intensity of drought in the region, it is crucial to understand the consequences of these disturbances on regional carbon and energy dynamics, biogeochemical processes and atmospheric CO2. The overall objective of our research was to quantify what impact widespread mortality of piñon trees has for carbon and water cycling in PJ woodlands. Our specific objectives for this proposal were: 1) Quantify the carbon, water and energy exchange trajectory after mortality in PJ woodlands; 2) Determine the mechanisms controlling the response and recovery of ecosystem production and respiration processes following large-scale piñon mortality; 3) Use the relationships we measure between ecosystem structure and function PJ woodlands recover from mortality to scale the results of our study up to the regional scale.

  3. The disjunct pattern of the Neotropical harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Gonyleptidae explained by climate-driven range shifts in the Quaternary: Paleodistributional and molecular evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Vergara

    Full Text Available The disjunct distribution of the harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Opiliones, Gonyleptidae is used as a case study to test the hypothesis of a trans-Chaco Pleistocene paleobridge during range expansion stages. This would have temporarily connected humid regions ('Mesopotamia' in northeastern Argentina, and the 'Yungas' in the northwest, NWA in the subtropical and temperate South American lowlands. The present study combines two independent approaches: paleodistributional reconstruction, using the Species Distribution Modeling method MaxEnt and projection onto Quaternary paleoclimates (6 kya, 21 kya, 130 kya, and phylogeographic analyses based on the cytochrome oxidase subunit I molecular marker. Models predict a maximal shrinkage during the warm Last Interglacial (130 kya, and the rise of the hypothesized paleobridge in the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya, revealing that cold-dry stages (not warm-humid ones, as supposed enabled the range expansion of this species. The disjunction was formed in the mid-Holocene (6 kya and is intensified under current conditions. The median-joining network shows that NWA haplotypes are peripherally related to different Mesopotamian lineages; haplotypes from Santa Fe and Córdoba Provinces consistently occupy central positions in the network. According to the dated phylogeny, Mesopotamia-NWA expansion events would have occurred in the last glacial period, in many cases closely associated to the Last Glacial Maximum, with most divergence events occurring shortly thereafter. Only two (out of nine NWA haplotypes are shared with Mesopotamian localities. A single, presumably relictual NWA haplotype was found to have diverged much earlier, suggesting an ancient expansion event not recoverable by the paleodistributional models. Different measures of sequence statistics, genetic diversity, population structure and history of demographic changes are provided. This research offers the first available evidence for the historical origin of NWA disjunct populations of a Mesopotamian harvestman.

  4. Shifting the Arctic Carbon Balance: Effects of a Long-Term Fertilization Experiment and Anomalously Warm Temperatures on Net Ecosystem Exchange in the Alaskan Tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, S.; Natali, S.; Rastetter, E. B.; Shaver, G. R.; Graham, L. M.; Jastrow, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    The arctic is warming at an accelerated rate relative to the globe. Among the predicted consequences of warming temperatures in the arctic are increased gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and nutrient availability. The net effect of these changes on the carbon (C) cycle and resulting C balance and feedback to climate change remain unclear. Historically the Arctic has been a C sink, but evidence from recent years suggests some regions in the Arctic are becoming C sources. To predict the role of the Arctic in global C cycling, the mechanisms affecting arctic C balances need to be better resolved. We measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a long-term, multi-level, fertilization experiment at Toolik Lake, AK during an anomalously warm summer. We modeled NEE, ER, and GPP using a Bayesian network model. The best-fit model included Q10 temperature functions and linear fertilization functions for both ER and GPP. ER was more strongly affected by temperature and GPP was driven more by fertilization level. As a result, fertilization increased the C sink capacity, but only at moderate and low temperatures. At high temperatures (>28 °C) the NEE modeled for the highest level of fertilization was not significantly different from zero. In contrast, at ambient nutrient levels modeled NEE was significantly below zero (net uptake) until 35 °C, when it becomes neutral. Regardless of the level of fertilization, NEE never decreased with warming. Temperature in low ranges (5-15°C) had no net effect on NEE, whereas NEE began to increase exponentially with temperature after a threshold of 15°C until becoming a net source to the atmosphere at 37°C. Our results indicate that the C sink strength of tundra ecosystems can be increased with small increases in nutrient availability, but that large increase in nutrient availability can switch tundra ecosystems into C sources under warm conditions. Warming temperatures in tundra ecosystems will only decrease C

  5. Northern Peatland Shifts Under Changing Climate and Their Impact on Permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shur, Y.; Jorgenson, T.; Kanevskiy, M. Z.

    2014-12-01

    Formation of peatlands depends primarily on climate and its interactions with hydrology, soil thermal regimes, plant composition, and nutrients. A water balance with precipitation exceeding evaporation is necessary for their formation. The rate of peat accumulation also greatly depends on thermal resources. The prominent impact of the water balance and temperature on peatland formation is evident in the West Siberia Lowland. The rate of peat accumulation steadily increases from arctic tundra to moss tundra, to forest tundra, to northern taiga, and to southern taiga. This increase is a result in increase in air temperature and length of the growing season because all of these zones have water balance favorable for peat formation. Further to south, evaporation prevails over precipitation and peat formation occurs only in isolated areas. Climate change will redefine geographical distribution of climatic and vegetation zones. It is predicted that in arctic and subarctic regions the difference between precipitation and evaporation will increase and as a result these regions will remain favorable to peat accumulation. With increase of thermal resources, the rate of peat accumulation will also increase. The Alaska Arctic Coastal Plain is of a special interest because it has thousands of shallow lakes, which due to warming climate would shift from open waterbodies to peatlands through shoreline paludification and infilling. The accumulation of organic matter will likely turn open water into shore fens and bogs, and eventually to peat plateaus, as is occurring in many boreal landscapes. Expected impact on permafrost in arctic and subarctic regions will include rise of the permafrost table, thickening of the ice-rich intermediate layer with ataxitic (suspended) cryostructure, and replacement of frost boils with earth hummocks. In the contemporary continuous permafrost zone, permafrost formed as climate-driven will be transformed into climate-driven ecosystem protected

  6. The spatial and temporal shifts of biofuel production in the ecosystem-level carbon and water dynamics in the central plains of US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, P.; Brunsell, N. A.

    2011-12-01

    The grasslands of the central plains US are the leading producer of wheat, sorghum and a significant amount of corn and soybean. By linking the food production and energy cycles, increasing demand for ethanol, biodiesel, and food, not only regional ecosystems are altered by the influences of Land-Use Land-Cover (LULC), but it is also a challenge for us to gain more knowledge about the carbon balance on fuel and food. In order to ascertain the impacts of changing LULC on carbon and water dynamics, more specifically, to examine the impacts of altering current land cover to increase biofuel production in this region, we used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and precipitation record for the period from 1982 to 2003 to show the temporal dynamics associated with different landcover types as a function of location along the mean precipitation gradient; and then employed Biome-BGC model to estimate key carbon fluxes and storage pools associated with each of the different landcover classes, as well as the fluxes resulting from landcover changes. Results show an increasing trend of NDVI is from the west to the east, which agreed with the spatial distribution of precipitation, however due to some of LULC types are grown by irrigation, precipitation is not the main effect for vegetation development in west portion. However, overall within the study area, indicated by the temporal distributed plots of wavelet analysis for NDVI and precipitation, vegetation dynamics is obviously affected by long-term regional climatic factors, i.e. precipitation, not by short-term or individual local factors instead. On the other hand, by inputting actual land cover and interpolated meteorological data, as well as important ecosystem variables that govern carbon dynamics, we can better define the impacts of biofuel productions; moreover, this ecosystem carbon cycling simulation by Bio-BGC model illustrates that the extent of those landcover responses depend not only on the rate

  7. Shift Colors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Publications & News Shift Colors Pages default Sign In NPC Logo Banner : Shift Colors Search Navy Personnel Command > Reference Library > Publications & News > Shift Colors Top Link Bar Navy Personnel Library Expand Reference Library Quick Launch Shift Colors Shift Colors Archives Mailing Address How to

  8. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems provides data and information on the extent and classification of ecosystems circa 2000, including coastal,...

  9. How will coral reef fish communities respond to climate-driven disturbances? Insight from landscape-scale perturbations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Thomas C; Brooks, Andrew J; Holbrook, Sally J; Schmitt, Russell J; Washburn, Libe; Bernardi, Giacomo

    2014-09-01

    Global climate change is rapidly altering disturbance regimes in many ecosystems including coral reefs, yet the long-term impacts of these changes on ecosystem structure and function are difficult to predict. A major ecosystem service provided by coral reefs is the provisioning of physical habitat for other organisms, and consequently, many of the effects of climate change on coral reefs will be mediated by their impacts on habitat structure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand the independent and combined effects of coral mortality and loss of physical habitat on reef-associated biota. Here, we use a unique series of events affecting the coral reefs around the Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia to differentiate between the impacts of coral mortality and the degradation of physical habitat on the structure of reef fish communities. We found that, by removing large amounts of physical habitat, a tropical cyclone had larger impacts on reef fish communities than an outbreak of coral-eating sea stars that caused widespread coral mortality but left the physical structure intact. In addition, the impacts of declining structural complexity on reef fish assemblages accelerated as structure became increasingly rare. Structure provided by dead coral colonies can take up to decades to erode following coral mortality, and, consequently, our results suggest that predictions based on short-term studies are likely to grossly underestimate the long-term impacts of coral decline on reef fish communities.

  10. Shifts in Abundance and Diversity of Soil Ammonia-Oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea Associated with Land Restoration in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Chen

    Full Text Available The Grain to Green Project (GGP is an unprecedented land restoration action in China. The project converted large areas (ca 10 million ha of steep-sloped/degraded farmland and barren land into forest and grassland resulting in ecological benefits such as a reduction in severe soil erosion. It may also affect soil microorganisms involved in ammonia oxidization, which is a key step in the global nitrogen cycle. The methods for restoration that are typically adopted in semi-arid regions include abandoning farmland and growing drought tolerant grass (Lolium perenne L. or shrubs (Caragana korshinskii Kom.. In the present study, the effects of these methods on the abundance and diversity of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB and ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA were evaluated via quantitative real-time PCR, terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism and clone library analysis of amoA genes. Comparisons were made between soil samples from three restored lands and the adjacent farmland in Inner Mongolia. Both the abundance and community composition of AOB were significantly different between the restored lands and the adjacent control. Significantly lower nitrification activity was observed for the restored land. Clone library analysis revealed that all AOB amoA gene sequences were affiliated with Nitrosospira. Abundance of the populations that were associated with Nitrosospira sp. Nv6 which had possibly adapted to high concentrations of inorganic nitrogen, decreased on the restored land. Only a slight difference in the AOB communities was observed between the restored land with and without the shrub (Caragana korshinskii Kom.. A minor effect of land restoration on AOA was observed. In summary, land restoration negatively affected the abundance of AOB and soil nitrification activities, suggesting the potential role of GGP in the leaching of nitrates, and in the emission of N2O in related terrestrial ecosystems.

  11. Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem goods and services are the many life-sustaining benefits we receive from nature and contribute to environmental and human health and well-being. Ecosystem-focused research will develop methods to measure ecosystem goods and services.

  12. Sap-feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate-driven patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V; Stekolshchikov, Andrey V; Söderman, Guy; Labina, Eugenia S; Zverev, Vitali; Zvereva, Elena L

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap-feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant-herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap-feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750-1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008-2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap-feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap-feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome-shaped relationships between the loads of sap-feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap-feeders will increase by 0-45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65-210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap-feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap-feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant-plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems. © 2014

  13. Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiot, Joel; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-10-28

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  14. Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

    2015-01-01

    Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing

  15. Bottomland Hardwood Ecosystem Management Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Stanturf; Calvin E. Meier

    1994-01-01

    Federal agency approaches to land management are undergoing a shift from parcel-specific concerns toward a more holistic, ecosystem management approach. Southern bottomland hardwood ecosystems provide important environmental services and commodity goods (Wharton et al. 1982), yet much of our knowledge of these systems comes from anecdotal information. The Bottomland...

  16. Projections of climate-driven changes in tuna vertical habitat based on species-specific differences in blood oxygen affinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mislan, K A S; Deutsch, Curtis A; Brill, Richard W; Dunne, John P; Sarmiento, Jorge L

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen concentrations are hypothesized to decrease in many areas of the ocean as a result of anthropogenically driven climate change, resulting in habitat compression for pelagic animals. The oxygen partial pressure, pO 2 , at which blood is 50% saturated (P 50 ) is a measure of blood oxygen affinity and a gauge of the tolerance of animals for low ambient oxygen. Tuna species display a wide range of blood oxygen affinities (i.e., P 50 values) and therefore may be differentially impacted by habitat compression as they make extensive vertical movements to forage on subdaily time scales. To project the effects of end-of-the-century climate change on tuna habitat, we calculate tuna P 50 depths (i.e., the vertical position in the water column at which ambient pO 2 is equal to species-specific blood P 50 values) from 21st century Earth System Model (ESM) projections included in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, we project P 50 depths to shoal, indicating likely habitat compression for tuna species due to climate change. Tunas that will be most impacted by shoaling are Pacific and southern bluefin tunas-habitat compression is projected for the entire geographic range of Pacific bluefin tuna and for the spawning region of southern bluefin tuna. Vertical shifts in P 50 depths will potentially influence resource partitioning among Pacific bluefin, bigeye, yellowfin, and skipjack tunas in the northern subtropical and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. By establishing linkages between tuna physiology and environmental conditions, we provide a mechanistic basis to project the effects of anthropogenic climate change on tuna habitats. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  17. Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Marcello A; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P

    2015-11-17

    Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell'Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

  18. North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luczak, C; Beaugrand, G; Lindley, J A; Dewarumez, J-M; Dubois, P J; Kirby, R R

    2012-10-23

    A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

  19. Shifting Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, Jenni

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the shifts in attention and focus as one teacher introduces and explains an image that represents the processes involved in a numeric problem that his students have been working on. This paper takes a micro-analytic approach to examine how the focus of attention shifts through what the teacher and students do and say in the…

  20. Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

    2009-11-17

    Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

  1. Alpine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.W. Rundel; C.I. Millar

    2016-01-01

    Alpine ecosystems are typically defined as those areas occurring above treeline, while recognizing that alpine ecosystems at a local scale may be found below this boundary for reasons including geology, geomorphology, and microclimate. The lower limit of the alpine ecosystems, the climatic treeline, varies with latitude across California, ranging from about 3500 m in...

  2. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  3. Treeline advances and associated shifts in the ground vegetation alter fine root dynamics and mycelia production in the South and Polar Urals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solly, Emily F; Djukic, Ika; Moiseev, Pavel A; Andreyashkina, Nelly I; Devi, Nadezhda M; Göransson, Hans; Mazepa, Valeriy S; Shiyatov, Stepan G; Trubina, Marina R; Schweingruber, Fritz H; Wilmking, Martin; Hagedorn, Frank

    2017-02-01

    Climate warming is shifting the elevational boundary between forests and tundra upwards, but the related belowground responses are poorly understood. In the pristine South and Polar Urals with shifts of the treeline ecotone documented by historical photographs, we investigated fine root dynamics and production of extramatrical mycorrhizal mycelia (EMM) along four elevational transects reaching from the closed forest to the treeless tundra. In addition, we analysed elevational differences in climate and vegetation structure, and excavated trees to estimate related changes in the partitioning between below- and aboveground biomass. Fine root biomass of trees (<2 mm) increased by 13-79% with elevation, paralleled by a 35-72% increase in ground vegetation fine roots from the closed forest to the tundra. During the first year of decomposition, mass loss of fine root litter from different vegetation types was greater at lower elevations in the forest-tundra ecotone. The ratio between fine roots of trees and stem biomass largely increased with elevation in both regions, but these increases were not accompanied by a distinct production of EMM. Production of EMM, however, increased with the presence of ectomycorrhizal trees at the transition from the tundra to the forest. Our results imply that the recorded upward expansion of forest into former tundra in the Ural Mountains by 4-8 m per decade is decreasing the partitioning of plant biomass to fine roots. They further suggest that climate-driven forest advances will alter EMM production rates with potential feedbacks on soil carbon and nutrient cycling in these ecosystems.

  4. Belowground Plant–Herbivore Interactions Vary among Climate-Driven Range-Expanding Plant Species with Different Degrees of Novel Chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rutger A. Wilschut

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An increasing number of studies report plant range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to global warming. However, consequences for interactions with other species in the novel ranges are poorly understood. Here, we examine how range-expanding plant species interact with root-feeding nematodes from the new range. Root-feeding nematodes are ubiquitous belowground herbivores that may impact the structure and composition of natural vegetation. Because of their ecological novelty, we hypothesized that range-expanding plant species will be less suitable hosts for root-feeding nematodes than native congeneric plant species. In greenhouse and lab trials we compared nematode preference and performance of two root-feeding nematode species between range-expanding plant species and their congeneric natives. In order to understand differences in nematode preferences, we compared root volatile profiles of all range-expanders and congeneric natives. Nematode preferences and performances differed substantially among the pairs of range-expanders and natives. The range-expander that had the most unique volatile profile compared to its related native was unattractive and a poor host for nematodes. Other range-expanding plant species that differed less in root chemistry from native congeners, also differed less in nematode attraction and performance. We conclude that the three climate-driven range-expanding plant species studied varied considerably in their chemical novelty compared to their congeneric natives, and therefore affected native root-feeding nematodes in species-specific ways. Our data suggest that through variation in chemical novelty, range-expanding plant species may vary in their impacts on belowground herbivores in the new range.

  5. Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Deqin; Zhu, Wenquan; Zheng, Zhoutao; Zhang, Donghai; Pan, Yaozhong; Jiang, Nan; Zhou, Xiafei

    2015-01-01

    The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years). In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April) in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May) in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1) from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate.

  6. The interaction of neutral evolutionary processes with climatically-driven adaptive changes in the 3D shape of the human os coxae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betti, Lia; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Manica, Andrea; Lycett, Stephen J

    2014-08-01

    Differences in the breadth of the pelvis among modern human populations and among extinct hominin species have often been interpreted in the light of thermoregulatory adaptation, whereby a larger pelvic girdle would help preserve body temperature in cold environments while a narrower pelvis would help dissipate heat in tropical climates. There is, however, a theoretical problem in interpreting a pattern of variation as evidence of selection without first accounting for the effects of neutral evolutionary processes (i.e., mutation, genetic drift and migration). Here, we analyse 3D configurations of 27 landmarks on the os coxae of 1494 modern human individuals representing 30 male and 23 female populations from five continents and a range of climatic conditions. We test for the effects of climate on the size and shape of the pelvic bone, while explicitly accounting for population history (i.e., geographically-mediated gene flow and genetic drift). We find that neutral processes account for a substantial proportion of shape variance in the human os coxae in both sexes. Beyond the neutral pattern due to population history, temperature is a significant predictor of shape and size variation in the os coxae, at least in males. The effect of climate on the shape of the pelvic bone, however, is comparatively limited, explaining only a small percentage of shape variation in males and females. In accordance with previous hypotheses, the size of the os coxae tends to increase with decreasing temperature, although the significance of the association is reduced when population history is taken into account. In conclusion, the shape and size of the human os coxae reflect both neutral evolutionary processes and climatically-driven adaptive changes. Neutral processes have a substantial effect on pelvic variation, suggesting such factors will need to be taken into account in future studies of human and fossil hominin coxal variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  7. Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deqin Fan

    Full Text Available The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years. In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1 from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate.

  8. Market shifting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forst, Michael

    2013-11-01

    After years of oversupply and artificially low module pricing, market analysts believe that the solar industry will begin to stabilize by 2017. While the market activities are shifting from Europe to the Asia Pacific region and the United States, the solar shakeout continues to be in full swing including solar cell and module manufacturing. (orig.)

  9. Tough Shift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brewer, Robert S.; Verdezoto, Nervo; Holst, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    people to change their behavior at home. Leveraging prior research on encouraging reductions in residential energy use through game play, we introduce ShareBuddy: a casual mobile game intended to encourage players not only to reduce, but also to shift their electricity use. We conducted two field studies...... real-world resource use into a game....

  10. Drained coastal peatlands: A potential nitrogen source to marine ecosystems under prolonged drought and heavy storm events-A microcosm experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongjun; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi; Flanagan, Neal

    2016-10-01

    Over the past several decades there has been a massive increase in coastal eutrophication, which is often caused by increased runoff input of nitrogen from landscape alterations. Peatlands, covering 3% of land area, have stored about 12-21% of global soil organic nitrogen (12-20Pg N) around rivers, lakes and coasts over millennia and are now often drained and farmed. Their huge nitrogen pools may be released by intensified climate driven hydrologic events-prolonged droughts followed by heavy storms-and later transported to marine ecosystems. In this study, we collected peat monoliths from drained, natural, and restored coastal peatlands in the Southeastern U.S., and conducted a microcosm experiment simulating coupled prolonged-drought and storm events to (1) test whether storms could trigger a pulse of nitrogen export from drought-stressed peatlands and (2) assess how differentially hydrologic managements through shifting plant communities affect nitrogen export by combining an experiment of nitrogen release from litter. During the drought phase, we observed a significant temporal variation in net nitrogen mineralization rate (NMR). NMR spiked in the third month and then decreased rapidly. This pattern indicates that drought duration significantly affects nitrogen mineralization in peat. NMR in the drained site reached up to 490±110kgha(-1)year(-1), about 5 times higher than in the restored site. After the 14-month drought phase, we simulated a heavy storm by bringing peat monoliths to saturation. In the discharge waters, concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen in the monoliths from the drained site (72.7±16.3mgL(-1)) was about ten times as high as from the restored site. Our results indicate that previously drained peatlands under prolonged drought are a potent source of nitrogen export. Moreover, drought-induced plant community shifts to herbaceous plants substantially raise nitrogen release with lasting effects by altering litter quality in peatlands

  11. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  12. Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stam, F.C.; Spigel, Ben

    2016-01-01

    This paper reviews and discusses the emergent entrepreneurial ecosystem approach. Entrepreneurial ecosystems are defined as a set of interdependent actors and factors coordinated in such a way that they enable productive entrepreneurship within a particular territory. The purpose of this paper is to

  13. Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....

  14. Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

  15. Fluid Shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenger, M. B.; Hargens, A. R.; Dulchavsky, S. A.; Arbeille, P.; Danielson, R. W.; Ebert, D. J.; Garcia, K. M.; Johnston, S. L.; Laurie, S. S.; Lee, S. M. C.; hide

    2017-01-01

    Introduction. NASA's Human Research Program is focused on addressing health risks associated with long-duration missions on the International Space Station (ISS) and future exploration-class missions beyond low Earth orbit. Visual acuity changes observed after short-duration missions were largely transient, but now more than 50 percent of ISS astronauts have experienced more profound, chronic changes with objective structural findings such as optic disc edema, globe flattening and choroidal folds. These structural and functional changes are referred to as the visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Development of VIIP symptoms may be related to elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) secondary to spaceflight-induced cephalad fluid shifts, but this hypothesis has not been tested. The purpose of this study is to characterize fluid distribution and compartmentalization associated with long-duration spaceflight and to determine if a relation exists with vision changes and other elements of the VIIP syndrome. We also seek to determine whether the magnitude of fluid shifts during spaceflight, as well as any VIIP-related effects of those shifts, are predicted by the crewmember's pre-flight status and responses to acute hemodynamic manipulations, specifically posture changes and lower body negative pressure. Methods. We will examine a variety of physiologic variables in 10 long-duration ISS crewmembers using the test conditions and timeline presented in the figure below. Measures include: (1) fluid compartmentalization (total body water by D2O, extracellular fluid by NaBr, intracellular fluid by calculation, plasma volume by CO rebreathe, interstitial fluid by calculation); (2) forehead/eyelids, tibia, and calcaneus tissue thickness (by ultrasound); (3) vascular dimensions by ultrasound (jugular veins, cerebral and carotid arteries, vertebral arteries and veins, portal vein); (4) vascular dynamics by MRI (head/neck blood flow, cerebrospinal fluid

  16. Ecosystem thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Palacio, German Rau

    1998-01-01

    Ecology is no more a descriptive and self-sufficient science. Many viewpoints are needed simultaneously to give a full coverage of such complex systems: ecosystems. These viewpoints come from physics, chemistry, and nuclear physics, without a new far from equilibrium thermodynamics and without new mathematical tools such as catastrophe theory, fractal theory, cybernetics and network theory, the development of ecosystem science would never have reached the point of today. Some ideas are presented about the importance that concept such as energy, entropy, exergy information and none equilibrium have in the analysis of processes taking place in ecosystems

  17. Urban ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duvigneaud, P

    1974-01-01

    The author considers the town as an ecosystem. He examines its various subdivisions (climate, soil, structure, human and non-human communities, etc.) for which he chooses examples with particular reference to the city of Brussels.

  18. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  19. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  20. Integration of a Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato into Mountain Ecosystems, Following a Shift in the Altitudinal Limit of Distribution of Their Vector, Ixodes ricinus (Krkonoše Mountains, Czech Republic)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Danielová, V.; Daniel, M.; Schwarzová, L.; Materna, J.; Rudenko, Natalia; Golovchenko, Maryna; Holubová, J.; Grubhoffer, Libor; Kilian, P.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 3 (2010), s. 223-230 ISSN 1530-3667 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA310/06/1546 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60220518 Keywords : Borrelia burgdorferi genospecies * Climate * Ixodes ricinus tick * Mountain ecosystems * Tick-borne encephalitis virus Subject RIV: GJ - Animal Vermins ; Diseases, Veterinary Medicine Impact factor: 2.733, year: 2010

  1. Ecosystem Restoration: Fact or Fancy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Stanturf; Callie J. Schweitzer; Stephen H. Schoenholtz; James P. Barnett; Charles K. McMahon; Donald J. Tomszak

    1998-01-01

    Ecological restoration is generally accepted as the reestablishment of natural ecological processes that produce certain dynamic ecosystem properties of structure, function, and processes. But restore to what? The most frequently used conceptual model for the restoration process is the shift of conditions from some current (degraded) dynamic state to some past dynamic...

  2. Forest operations for ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert B. Rummer; John Baumgras; Joe McNeel

    1997-01-01

    The evolution of modern forest resource management is focusing on ecologically sensitive forest operations. This shift in management strategies is producing a new set of functional requirements for forest operations. Systems to implement ecosystem management prescriptions may need to be economically viable over a wider range of piece sizes, for example. Increasing...

  3. Strategic ecosystems of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquez Calle German

    2002-01-01

    The author relates the ecosystems in Colombia, he makes a relationship between ecosystems and population, utility of the ecosystems, transformation of the ecosystems and poverty and he shows a methodology of identification of strategic ecosystems

  4. Shifting Sugars and Shifting Paradigms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegal, Mark L.

    2015-01-01

    No organism lives in a constant environment. Based on classical studies in molecular biology, many have viewed microbes as following strict rules for shifting their metabolic activities when prevailing conditions change. For example, students learn that the bacterium Escherichia coli makes proteins for digesting lactose only when lactose is available and glucose, a better sugar, is not. However, recent studies, including three PLOS Biology papers examining sugar utilization in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, show that considerable heterogeneity in response to complex environments exists within and between populations. These results join similar recent results in other organisms that suggest that microbial populations anticipate predictable environmental changes and hedge their bets against unpredictable ones. The classical view therefore represents but one special case in a range of evolutionary adaptations to environmental changes that all organisms face. PMID:25688600

  5. Shifting sugars and shifting paradigms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark L Siegal

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available No organism lives in a constant environment. Based on classical studies in molecular biology, many have viewed microbes as following strict rules for shifting their metabolic activities when prevailing conditions change. For example, students learn that the bacterium Escherichia coli makes proteins for digesting lactose only when lactose is available and glucose, a better sugar, is not. However, recent studies, including three PLOS Biology papers examining sugar utilization in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, show that considerable heterogeneity in response to complex environments exists within and between populations. These results join similar recent results in other organisms that suggest that microbial populations anticipate predictable environmental changes and hedge their bets against unpredictable ones. The classical view therefore represents but one special case in a range of evolutionary adaptations to environmental changes that all organisms face.

  6. Designer ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Awasthi, Ashutosh; Singh, Kripal; O'Grady, Audrey; Courtney, Ronan; Kalra, Alok; Singh, Rana Pratap; Cerda Bolinches, Artemio; Steinberger, Yosef; Patra, D.D.

    2016-01-01

    Increase in human population is accelerating the rate of land use change, biodiversity loss and habitat degradation, triggering a serious threat to life supporting ecosystem services. Existing strategies for biological conservation remain insufficient to achieve a sustainable human-nature

  7. Structure, functioning, and cumulative stressors of Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tecchio, Samuele; Coll, Marta; Sardà, Francisco

    2015-06-01

    Environmental stressors, such as climate fluctuations, and anthropogenic stressors, such as fishing, are of major concern for the management of deep-sea ecosystems. Deep-water habitats are limited by primary productivity and are mainly dependent on the vertical input of organic matter from the surface. Global change over the latest decades is imparting variations in primary productivity levels across oceans, and thus it has an impact on the amount of organic matter landing on the deep seafloor. In addition, anthropogenic impacts are now reaching the deep ocean. The Mediterranean Sea, the largest enclosed basin on the planet, is not an exception. However, ecosystem-level studies of response to varying food input and anthropogenic stressors on deep-sea ecosystems are still scant. We present here a comparative ecological network analysis of three food webs of the deep Mediterranean Sea, with contrasting trophic structure. After modelling the flows of these food webs with the Ecopath with Ecosim approach, we compared indicators of network structure and functioning. We then developed temporal dynamic simulations varying the organic matter input to evaluate its potential effect. Results show that, following the west-to-east gradient in the Mediterranean Sea of marine snow input, organic matter recycling increases, net production decreases to negative values and trophic organisation is overall reduced. The levels of food-web activity followed the gradient of organic matter availability at the seafloor, confirming that deep-water ecosystems directly depend on marine snow and are therefore influenced by variations of energy input, such as climate-driven changes. In addition, simulations of varying marine snow arrival at the seafloor, combined with the hypothesis of a possible fishery expansion on the lower continental slope in the western basin, evidence that the trawling fishery may pose an impact which could be an order of magnitude stronger than a climate-driven

  8. Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

    2017-05-02

    Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

  9. Early signatures of regime shifts in complex dynamical systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2015-02-05

    Feb 5, 2015 ... journal of. February 2015 ... populations, financial markets, complex diseases and gene circuits. ... A recent exhaustive analysis of recorded ecosystem shifts points to an approach- .... The quantitative estimation of these.

  10. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  11. Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

    1997-01-01

    The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Managing for resilience: an information theory-based approach to assessing ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystems are complex and multivariate; hence, methods to assess the dynamics of ecosystems should have the capacity to evaluate multiple indicators simultaneously. Most research on identifying leading indicators of regime shifts has focused on univariate methods and simple mod...

  13. Tropical ecosystems into the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. S. Bawa; W. J. Kress; N. M. Nadkarni; S. Raven P. H. Lele; D. H. Janzen; A. E. Lugo; P. S. Ashton; T. E. Lovejoy

    2004-01-01

    WE ENDORSE THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF America’s (ESA) call to shift its primary focus from the study of undisturbed ecosystems to interdisciplinary studies of humaninfluenced ecosystems for the betterment of human societies (1, 2). At the 2004 annual meeting of the Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation (ATBC) in Miami, Florida, we released a report (“Beyond...

  14. Climate-driven mathematical models to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak in the presence of widespread asymptomatic infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommar, Carlos J.; Robinson, Marguerite; Lowe, Rachel; Conan, Anne; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    The emergence and persistence of human pathogens in the environment represents a constant threat to society, with global implications for human health, economies and ecosystems. Of particular concern are vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, which are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new regions. This unprecedented situation has been partly attributed to the increase in global temperatures in recent decades which has allowed non-native mosquito species to invade and successfully colonise previously inhospitable environments. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. In turn, vector populations are thought to be driven by external environmental variables, such as precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the ability of asymptomatic individuals to successfully transmit the infection and evade control measures can undermine public health interventions. We employed a stochastic model, which explicitly included asymptomatic and undocumented laboratory confirmed cases, and applied it to a documented outbreak in Cambodia in 2012 (Trapeang Roka village, Kampong Speu Province). The resulting estimate of the reproduction number was considerably higher than values obtained for previous outbreaks and highlights the importance of asymptomatic transmission. Subsequently, we develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals alone is

  15. Regime shifts, resilience and recovery of a cod stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Diekmann, Rabea; Möllmann, Christian

    2010-01-01

    In the North and Baltic seas Atlantic cod Gadus morhua stocks collapsed as part or one of the major factors inducing large-scale ecosystem regime shifts. Determining the relative contribution of overfishing and climate variability in causing these shifts has proven difficult. While facing similar...

  16. Two Late Pleistocene climate-driven incision/aggradation rhythms in the middle Dnieper River basin, west-central Russian Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panin, Andrei; Adamiec, Grzegorz; Buylaert, Jan-Pieter; Matlakhova, Ekaterina; Moska, Piotr; Novenko, Elena

    2017-06-01

    warm climate phases - late MIS 3, post-LGM warming including the Bølling-Allerød interstadial. Anomalously large size of the preserved river palaeochannels prove that the post-LGM incision phase was induced by a climatically forced large increase of water runoff. Considerable increase of water discharges is considered the most probably cause for the late MIS 4 incision phase also. Therefore river incision seems to have been governed rather by changing water runoff that oscillated in phase shift with the thermal regime.

  17. Astronomical Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuenschwander, D. E.; Finkenbinder, L. R.

    2004-05-01

    Just as quetzals and jaguars require specific ecological habitats to survive, so too must planets occupy a tightly constrained astronomical habitat to support life as we know it. With this theme in mind we relate the transferable features of our elementary astronomy course, "The Astronomical Basis of Life on Earth." Over the last five years, in a team-taught course that features a spring break field trip to Costa Rica, we have introduced astronomy through "astronomical ecosystems," emphasizing astronomical constraints on the prospects for life on Earth. Life requires energy, chemical elements, and long timescales, and we emphasize how cosmological, astrophysical, and geological realities, through stabilities and catastrophes, create and eliminate niches for biological life. The linkage between astronomy and biology gets immediate and personal: for example, studies in solar energy production are followed by hikes in the forest to examine the light-gathering strategies of photosynthetic organisms; a lesson on tides is conducted while standing up to our necks in one on a Pacific beach. Further linkages between astronomy and the human timescale concerns of biological diversity, cultural diversity, and environmental sustainability are natural and direct. Our experience of teaching "astronomy as habitat" strongly influences our "Astronomy 101" course in Oklahoma as well. This "inverted astrobiology" seems to transform our student's outlook, from the universe being something "out there" into something "we're in!" We thank the SNU Science Alumni support group "The Catalysts," and the SNU Quetzal Education and Research Center, San Gerardo de Dota, Costa Rica, for their support.

  18. Micropatch Antenna Phase Shifting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Thursby, Michael

    2000-01-01

    .... We have been looking at the ability of embedded element to adjust the phase shift seen by the element with the goal of being able to remove the phase shifting devices from the antenna and replace...

  19. Micropatch Antenna Phase Shifting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Thursby, Michael

    1999-01-01

    .... We have been looking at the ability of embedded element to adjust the phase shift seen by the element wit the goal of being able to remove the phase shifting devices from the antenna and replace...

  20. Risk and markets for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendor, Todd K; Riggsbee, J Adam; Doyle, Martin

    2011-12-15

    Market-based environmental regulations (e.g., cap and trade, "payments for ecosystem services") are increasingly common. However, few detailed studies of operating ecosystem markets have lent understanding to how such policies affect incentive structures for improving environmental quality. The largest U.S. market stems from the Clean Water Act provisions requiring ecosystem restoration to offset aquatic ecosystems damaged during development. We describe and test how variations in the rules governing this ecosystem market shift risk between regulators and entrepreneurs to promote ecological restoration. We analyze extensive national scale data to assess how two critical aspects of market structure - (a) the geographic scale of markets and (b) policies dictating the release of credits - affect the willingness of entrepreneurs to enter specific markets and produce credits. We find no discernible relationship between policies attempting to ease market entry and either the number of individual producers or total credits produced. Rather, market entry is primarily related to regional geography (the prevalence of aquatic ecosystems) and regional economic growth. Any improvements to policies governing ecosystem markets require explicit evaluation of the interplay between policy and risk elements affecting both regulators and entrepreneurial credit providers. Our findings extend to emerging, regulated ecosystem markets, including proposed carbon offset mechanisms, biodiversity banking, and water quality trading programs.

  1. Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Carlos M; Agustí, Susana; Wassmann, Paul; Arrieta, Jesús M; Alcaraz, Miquel; Coello, Alexandra; Marbà, Núria; Hendriks, Iris E; Holding, Johnna; García-Zarandona, Iñigo; Kritzberg, Emma; Vaqué, Dolors

    2012-02-01

    The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

  2. OpenShift Workshop

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Rodriguez Peon, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    Workshop to introduce developers to the OpenShift platform available at CERN. Several use cases will be shown, including deploying an existing application into OpenShift. We expect attendees to realize about OpenShift features and general architecture of the service.

  3. Measuring Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Stam, F.C.

    2017-01-01

    How can entrepreneurial ecosystems and productive entrepreneurship can be traced empirically and how is entrepreneurship related to entrepreneurial ecosystems. The analyses in this chapter show the value of taking a systems view on the context of entrepreneurship. We measure entrepreneurial ecosystem elements and use these to compose an entrepreneurial ecosystem index. Next, we measure the output of entrepreneurial ecosystems with different indicators of high-growth firms. We use the 12 provi...

  4. Mapping Ecosystem Services

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiev,Teodor; Burkhard,Benjamin; Maes,Joachim

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystem structure and function (in combination with other inputs) to human well-being. That means, humankind is strongly dependent on well-functioning ecosystems and natural capital that are the base for a constant flow of ecosystem services from nature to society. Therefore ecosystem services have the potential to become a major tool for policy and decision making on global, national, regional and local scales. Possible applications are manifold:...

  5. A Framework to Quantify the Strength of the Ecological Links Between an Environmental Stressor and Final Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic stressors such as climate change, fire, and pollution are driving shifts in ecosystem function and resilience. Scientists generally rely on biological indicators of these stressors to signal that ecosystem conditions have been altered beyond an acceptable amount. Ho...

  6. Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Canadell, J.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, ACT (Australia). Global Carbon Project; Pataki, D.E. [California Univ., Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science]|[California Univ., Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Pitelka, L.F. (eds.) [Maryland Univ., Frostburg, MD (United States). Appalachian Lab.

    2007-07-01

    Over 100 authors present 25 contributions on the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystems including: * key processes of the earth system such as the CO2 fertilization effect, shifts in disturbances and biome distribution, the saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink, and changes in functional biodiversity, * ecosystem services such the production of wheat, pest control, and carbon storage in croplands, and * sensitive regions in the world threaten by rapid changes in climate and land use such as high latitudes ecosystems, tropical forest in Southeast Asia, and ecosystems dominated by Monsoon climate. The book also explores new research developments on spatial thresholds and nonlinearities, the key role of urban development in global biogeochemical processes, and the integration of natural and social sciences to address complex problems of the human-environment system. (orig.)

  7. Transformation of Digital Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan; Hedman, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    the Digital Ecosystem Technology Transformation (DETT) framework for explaining technology-based transformation of digital ecosystems by integrating theories of business and technology ecosystems. The framework depicts ecosystem transformation as distributed and emergent from micro-, meso-, and macro- level......In digital ecosystems, the fusion relation between business and technology means that the decision of technical compatibility of the offering is also the decision of how to position the firm relative to the coopetive relations that characterize business ecosystems. In this article we develop...... coopetition. The DETT framework consists an alternative to the existing explanations of digital ecosystem transformation as the rational management of one central actor balancing ecosystem tensions. We illustrate the use of the framework by a case study of transformation in the digital payment ecosystem...

  8. Ecosystem degradation in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, B.N.

    1990-01-01

    Environmental and ecosystem studies have assumed greater relevance in the last decade of the twentieth century than even before. The urban settlements are becoming over-crowded and industries are increasingly polluting the air, water and sound in our larger metropolises. Degradation of different types of ecosystem are discussed in this book, Ecosystem Degradation in India. The book has been divided into seven chapters: Introduction, Coastal and Delta Ecosystem, River Basin Ecosystem, Mountain Ecosystem, Forest Ecosystem, Urban Ecosystem and the last chapter deals with the Environmental Problems and Planning. In the introduction the environmental and ecosystem degradation problems in India is highlighted as a whole while in other chapters mostly case studies by experts who know their respective terrain very intimately are included. The case study papers cover most part of India and deal with local problems, stretching from east coast to west coast and from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. (author)

  9. Climate-driven changes in water level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik

    2013-01-01

    level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions...... hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350-8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260-8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...

  10. Tree growth and vegetation activity at the ecosystem-scale in the eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulthard, Bethany L.; Touchan, Ramzi; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Meko, David M.; Sivrikaya, Fatih

    2017-08-01

    Linking annual tree growth with remotely-sensed terrestrial vegetation indices provides a basis for using tree rings as proxies for ecosystem primary productivity over large spatial and long temporal scales. In contrast with most previous tree ring/remote sensing studies that have focused on temperature-limited boreal and taiga environments, here we compare the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with a network of Pinus brutia tree ring width chronologies collected along ecological gradients in semiarid Cyprus, where both radial tree growth and broader vegetation activity are controlled by drought. We find that the interaction between precipitation, elevation, and land-cover type generate a relationship between radial tree growth and NDVI. While tree ring chronologies at higher-elevation forested sites do not exhibit climate-driven linkages with NDVI, chronologies at lower-elevation dry sites are strongly correlated with NDVI during the winter precipitation season. At lower-elevation sites, land cover is dominated by grasslands and shrublands and tree ring widths operate as a proxy for ecosystem-scale vegetation activity. Tree rings can therefore be used to reconstruct productivity in water-limited grasslands and shrublands, where future drought stress is expected to alter the global carbon cycle, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning in the 21st century.

  11. Choice Shifts in Groups

    OpenAIRE

    Kfir Eliaz; Debraj Ray

    2004-01-01

    The phenomenon of "choice shifts" in group decision-making is fairly ubiquitous in the social psychology literature. Faced with a choice between a ``safe" and ``risky" decision, group members appear to move to one extreme or the other, relative to the choices each member might have made on her own. Both risky and cautious shifts have been identified in different situations. This paper demonstrates that from an individual decision-making perspective, choice shifts may be viewed as a systematic...

  12. Implementing OpenShift

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Adam

    2013-01-01

    A standard tutorial-based approach to using OpenShift and deploying custom or pre-built web applications to the OpenShift Online cloud.This book is for software developers and DevOps alike who are interested in learning how to use the OpenShift Platform-as-a-Service for developing and deploying applications, how the environment works on the back end, and how to deploy their very own open source Platform-as-a-Service based on the upstream OpenShift Origin project.

  13. Insomnia in shift work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallières, Annie; Azaiez, Aïda; Moreau, Vincent; LeBlanc, Mélanie; Morin, Charles M

    2014-12-01

    Shift work disorder involves insomnia and/or excessive sleepiness associated with the work schedule. The present study examined the impact of insomnia on the perceived physical and psychological health of adults working on night and rotating shift schedules compared to day workers. A total of 418 adults (51% women, mean age 41.4 years), including 51 night workers, 158 rotating shift workers, and 209 day workers were selected from an epidemiological study. An algorithm was used to classify each participant of the two groups (working night or rotating shifts) according to the presence or absence of insomnia symptoms. Each of these individuals was paired with a day worker according to gender, age, and income. Participants completed several questionnaires measuring sleep, health, and psychological variables. Night and rotating shift workers with insomnia presented a sleep profile similar to that of day workers with insomnia. Sleep time was more strongly related to insomnia than to shift work per se. Participants with insomnia in the three groups complained of anxiety, depression, and fatigue, and reported consuming equal amounts of sleep-aid medication. Insomnia also contributed to chronic pain and otorhinolaryngology problems, especially among rotating shift workers. Work productivity and absenteeism were more strongly related to insomnia. The present study highlights insomnia as an important component of the sleep difficulties experienced by shift workers. Insomnia may exacerbate certain physical and mental health problems of shift workers, and impair their quality of life. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Measuring Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stam, F.C.

    How can entrepreneurial ecosystems and productive entrepreneurship can be traced empirically and how is entrepreneurship related to entrepreneurial ecosystems. The analyses in this chapter show the value of taking a systems view on the context of entrepreneurship. We measure entrepreneurial

  15. Coral reefs - Specialized ecosystems

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Wafar, M.V.M.

    This paper discusses briefly some aspects that characterize and differentiate coral reef ecosystems from other tropical marine ecosystems. A brief account on the resources that are extractable from coral reefs, their susceptibility to natural...

  16. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  17. Ecosystem classification, Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.J. Robin-Abbott; L.H. Pardo

    2011-01-01

    The ecosystem classification in this report is based on the ecoregions developed through the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) for North America (CEC 1997). Only ecosystems that occur in the United States are included. CEC ecoregions are described, with slight modifications, below (CEC 1997) and shown in Figures 2.1 and 2.2. We chose this ecosystem...

  18. On Man and Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookfield, Harold

    1982-01-01

    Distinctions between natural ecosystems and human ecosystems are misleading. Natural and social sciences can be integrated through the concept of a "human-use ecosystem," in which social scientists analyze the community, household, and individual, and natural scientists analyze the land. Includes a case study of St. Kitts. (KC)

  19. Global Ecosystem Restoration Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandez, Miguel; Garcia, Monica; Fernandez, Nestor

    2015-01-01

    The Global ecosystem restoration index (GERI) is a composite index that integrates structural and functional aspects of the ecosystem restoration process. These elements are evaluated through a window that looks into a baseline for degraded ecosystems with the objective to assess restoration...

  20. Towards ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duku, C.; Rathjens, H.; Zwart, S.J.; Hein, L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is an emerging field that aims to provide a consistent approach to analysing environment-economy interactions. One of the specific features of ecosystem accounting is the distinction between the capacity and the flow of ecosystem services. Ecohydrological modelling to support

  1. Rights to ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. Many of these services are provided outside the borders of the land where they are produced; this article investigates who is entitled to these non-excludable ecosystem services from two libertarian perspectives. Taking a

  2. Dynamic behaviour of lagoon ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cioffi, F.

    2008-01-01

    The dynamic behaviour of primary producers in coastal lagoons due to change of external control parameters, phosphorous external load and maximum tidal flow rate, is investigated by using a eutrophication model. The eutrophication model allows the simulation of the temporal evolution of the concentration of the following species: a) in the water column: dissolved oxygen, vegetal organic carbon, particulate and dissolved organic carbon, dissolved phosphorous and hydrogen sulphide; b) in sediments: dissolved oxygen, particulate and dissolved organic carbon, dissolved and adsorbed phosphorous, hydrogen sulphide. The vegetal organic carbon is distinguished in three components related to the main groups of primary producers, namely eel grass, macro algae and microalgae, having different modalities of nutrient uptake and kinetics parameters depending on the S/V ratio. Diagrams representing the ecosystems dynamic response to the changes of the control parameters were constructed by simulations. The response diagrams suggest the existence of regime shifts which border different ecosystem stability ranges, characterized by the dominance of a specific group of primary producers and by different ecosystem vulnerability at summer water anoxia. A catastrophic bifurcation or abrupt regime shift, evidenced by Poincare sections obtained mapping, at a prefixed time period, the values of the concentration of the species, occurs for a critical value of the control parameter and manifests itself as an abrupt change of the dominant species from eel grass to macro algae. An analogous abrupt change from eel grass to macro algae occurs for a critical value of the tidal flowrate assumed as control parameter in simulations conducted for an assigned value of external phosphorous load.

  3. Shifted Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2007-01-01

    Delayed mixing is a problem of theoretical interest and practical importance, e.g., in speech processing, bio-medical signal analysis and financial data modelling. Most previous analyses have been based on models with integer shifts, i.e., shifts by a number of samples, and have often been carried...

  4. Homogeneous bilateral block shifts

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Douglas class were classified in [3]; they are unilateral block shifts of arbitrary block size (i.e. dim H(n) can be anything). However, no examples of irreducible homogeneous bilateral block shifts of block size larger than 1 were known until now.

  5. OpenShift cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Gulati, Shekhar

    2014-01-01

    If you are a web application developer who wants to use the OpenShift platform to host your next big idea but are looking for guidance on how to achieve this, then this book is the first step you need to take. This is a very accessible cookbook where no previous knowledge of OpenShift is needed.

  6. Josephson shift registers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Przybysz, J.X.

    1989-01-01

    This paper gives a review of Josephson shift register circuits that were designed, fabricated, or tested, with emphasis on work in the 1980s. Operating speed is most important, since it often limits system performance. Older designs used square-wave clocks, but most modern designs use offset sine waves, with either two or three phases. Operating margins and gate bias uniformity are key concerns. The fastest measured Josephson shift register operated at 2.3 GHz, which compares well with a GaAs shift register that consumes 250 times more power. The difficulties of high-speed testing have prevented many Josephson shift registers from being operated at their highest speeds. Computer simulations suggest that 30-GHz operation is possible with current Nb/Al 2 O 3 /Nb technology. Junctions with critical current densities near 10 kA/cm 2 would make 100-GHz shift registers feasible

  7. Ecosystem services in ECOCLIM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lise Lotte; Boegh, Eva; Bendtsen, J

    that actions initiated to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions are sustainable and not destructive to existing ecosystem services. Therefore it is important to address i.e. land use change in relation to the regulating services of the ecosystems, such as carbon sequestration and climate regulation. At present...... a thorough understanding of the ecosystem processes controlling the uptake or emissions of GHG is fundamental. Here we present ECOCLIM in the context of ecosystem services and the experimental studies within ECOCLIM which will lead to an enhanced understanding of Danish ecosystems....

  8. Fishing for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Kevin L; Pegg, Mark A; Cole, Nicholas W; Siddons, Stephen F; Fedele, Alexis D; Harmon, Brian S; Ruskamp, Ryan L; Turner, Dylan R; Uerling, Caleb C

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Ecosystem thresholds, tipping points, and critical transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.; Reed, Sasha C.; Peñuelas, Josep; McDowell, Nathan G.; Sala, Osvaldo E.

    2018-01-01

    Abrupt shifts in ecosystems are cause for concern and will likelyintensify under global change (Scheffer et al., 2001). The terms‘thresho lds’, ‘tipping points’, and ‘critical transitions’ have beenused interchangeably to refer to sudden changes in the integrityor state of an ecosystem caused by environmental drivers(Holling, 1973; May, 1977). Threshold-based concepts havesignific antly aided our capacity to predict the controls overecosystem structure and functioning (Schwinning et al., 2004;Peters et al., 2007) and have become a framework to guide themanagement of natural resources (Glick et al., 2010; Allen et al.,2011). However, our unders tanding of how biotic and abioticdrivers interact to regulate ecosystem responses and of ways toforecast th e impending responses remain limited. Terrestrialecosystems, in particular, are already responding to globalchange in ways that are both transformati onal and difficult topredict due to strong heterogeneity across temporal and spatialscales (Pe~nuelas & Filella, 2001; McDowell et al., 2011;Munson, 2013; Reed et al., 2016). Comparing approaches formeasuring ecosystem performance in response to changingenvironme ntal conditions and for detecting stress and thresholdresponses can improve tradition al tests of resilience and provideearly warning signs of ecosystem transitions. Similarly, com-paring responses across ecosystems can offer insight into themechanisms that underlie variation in threshold responses.

  10. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  11. Nurses' shift reports

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buus, Niels; Hoeck, Bente; Hamilton, Bridget Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To identify reporting practices that feature in studies of nurses' shift reports across diverse nursing specialities. The objectives were to perform an exhaustive systematic literature search and to critically review the quality and findings of qualitative field studies...... of nurses' shift reports. BACKGROUND: Nurses' shift reports are routine occurrences in healthcare organisations that are viewed as crucial for patient outcomes, patient safety and continuity of care. Studies of communication between nurses attend primarily to 1:1 communication and analyse the adequacy...... and accuracy of patient information and feature handovers at the bedside. Still, verbal reports between groups of nurses about patients are commonplace. Shift reports are obvious sites for studying the situated accomplishment of professional nursing at the group level. This review is focused exclusively...

  12. Shift Verification and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pandya, Tara M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Evans, Thomas M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Davidson, Gregory G [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Seth R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Godfrey, Andrew T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-07

    This documentation outlines the verification and validation of Shift for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Five main types of problems were used for validation: small criticality benchmark problems; full-core reactor benchmarks for light water reactors; fixed-source coupled neutron-photon dosimetry benchmarks; depletion/burnup benchmarks; and full-core reactor performance benchmarks. We compared Shift results to measured data and other simulated Monte Carlo radiation transport code results, and found very good agreement in a variety of comparison measures. These include prediction of critical eigenvalue, radial and axial pin power distributions, rod worth, leakage spectra, and nuclide inventories over a burn cycle. Based on this validation of Shift, we are confident in Shift to provide reference results for CASL benchmarking.

  13. Molecular Electronic Shift Registers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beratan, David N.; Onuchic, Jose N.

    1990-01-01

    Molecular-scale shift registers eventually constructed as parts of high-density integrated memory circuits. In principle, variety of organic molecules makes possible large number of different configurations and modes of operation for such shift-register devices. Several classes of devices and implementations in some specific types of molecules proposed. All based on transfer of electrons or holes along chains of repeating molecular units.

  14. Benthic algae compensate for phytoplankton losses in large aquatic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brothers, Soren; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Sibley, Paul

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic activities can induce major trophic shifts in aquatic systems, yet we have an incomplete understanding of the implication of such shifts on ecosystem function and on primary production (PP) in particular. In recent decades, phytoplankton biomass and production in the Laurentian Great Lakes have declined in response to reduced nutrient concentrations and invasive mussels. However, the increases in water clarity associated with declines in phytoplankton may have positive effects on benthic PP at the ecosystem scale. Have these lakes experienced oligotrophication (a reduction of algal production), or simply a shift in autotrophic structure with no net decline in PP? Benthic contributions to ecosystem PP are rarely measured in large aquatic systems, but our calculations based on productivity rates from the Great Lakes indicate that a significant proportion (up to one half, in Lake Huron) of their whole-lake production may be benthic. The large declines (5-45%) in phytoplankton production in the Great Lakes from the 1970s to 2000s may be substantially compensated by benthic PP, which increased by up to 190%. Thus, the autotrophic productive capacity of large aquatic ecosystems may be relatively resilient to shifts in trophic status, due to a redirection of production to the near-shore benthic zone, and large lakes may exhibit shifts in autotrophic structure analogous to the regime shifts seen in shallow lakes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Seagrass sediments reveal the long-term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Oscar; Lavery, Paul; Masque, Pere; Inostroza, Karina; Bongiovanni, James; Duarte, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time-course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass-dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Land Use, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services

    OpenAIRE

    Attavanich, Witsanu; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; McCarl, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    The combination of shifts in crop production and a reduction in wetland ecosystems associated with climate change are forecast to reduce native grasslands and associated obligate species. Most estimates of climate change impacts to wildlife, however, do not account for how humans are likely to alter land use in response to climate changes. We examine the joint effect of climate change and the resulting land use response of farmers on waterfowl production in the Prairie Pothole Region of Nor...

  17. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K.; Fenichel, Eli P.

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystems store vast quantities of wealth, but difficulties measuring wealth held in ecosystems prevent its inclusion in accounting systems. Ecosystem-based management endeavors to manage ecosystems holistically. However, ecosystem-based management lacks headline indicators to evaluate performance. We unify the inclusive wealth and ecosystem-based management paradigms, allowing apples-to-apples comparisons between the wealth of the ecosystem and other forms of wealth, while providing a headl...

  18. Reconnecting Social and Ecological Resilience in Salmon Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel L. Bottom

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Fishery management programs designed to control Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp. for optimum production have failed to prevent widespread fish population decline and have caused greater uncertainty for salmon, their ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them. In this special feature introduction, we explore several key attributes of ecosystem resilience that have been overlooked by traditional salmon management approaches. The dynamics of salmon ecosystems involve social-ecological interactions across multiple scales that create difficult mismatches with the many jurisdictions that manage fisheries and other natural resources. Of particular importance to ecosystem resilience are large-scale shifts in oceanic and climatic regimes or in global economic conditions that unpredictably alter social and ecological systems. Past management actions that did not account for such changes have undermined salmon population resilience and increased the risk of irreversible regime shifts in salmon ecosystems. Because salmon convey important provisioning, cultural, and supporting services to their local watersheds, widespread population decline has undermined both human well-being and ecosystem resilience. Strengthening resilience will require expanding habitat opportunities for salmon populations to express their maximum life-history variation. Such actions also may benefit the "response diversity" of local communities by expanding the opportunities for people to express diverse social and economic values. Reestablishing social-ecological connections in salmon ecosystems will provide important ecosystem services, including those that depend on clean water, ample stream flows, functional wetlands and floodplains, intact riparian systems, and abundant fish populations.

  19. Shifting conceptions of complexity in forest management and silviculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert T. Fahey; Brandon C. Alveshere; Julia I. Burton; Anthony W. D' Amato; Yvette L. Dickinson; William S. Keeton; Christel C. Kern; Andrew J. Larson; Brian J. Palik; Klaus J. Puettmann; Michael R. Saunders; Christopher R. Webster; Jeff W. Atkins; Christopher M. Gough; Brady S. Hardiman

    2018-01-01

    In the past several decades, a trend in forestry and silviculture has been toward promoting complexity in forest ecosystems, but how complexity is conceived and described has shifted over time as new ideas and terminology have been introduced. Historically, ecologically-focused silviculture has focused largely on manipulation of structural complexity, but often with...

  20. BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS VS BUSINESS DIGITAL ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela Lazarica

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available E-business is often described as the small organisations’ gateway to global business and markets. The adoption of Internet-based technologies for e-business is a continuous process, with sequential steps of evolution. The latter step in the adoption of Internet-based technologies for business, where the business services and the software components are supported by a pervasive software environment, which shows an evolutionary and self-organising behaviour are named digital business ecosystems. The digital business ecosystems are characterized by intelligent software components and services, knowledge transfer, interactive training frameworks and integration of business processes and e-government models.

  1. Placing ecosystem sustainability within the context of dynamic earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidle, R. C.

    2013-12-01

    Because the concept of ecosystem sustainability and the practice of sustainable land management both have long-term foci, it is necessary to view these from the perspective of dynamic rather than static systems. In addition to the typical static system approach for assessing ecosystem sustainability, three additional perspectives are presented. These are resilient systems, systems where tipping points occur, and systems subject to episodic geophysical resetting. Ecosystem resilience accommodates both natural and anthropogenic stressors and should be considered to properly frame many ecosystem assessments. A more complex problem emerges when stressors push systems to tipping points, causing a regime shift. Both chronic anthropogenic activities (e.g., over-grazing, forest conversion, poor irrigation practices) and natural changes (e.g., climate anomalies, geochemical weathering, tectonic uplift, vegetative succession) can exhaust ecosystem resilience leading to a rapid change in state. Anthropogenic perturbations can also lower the initiation threshold and increase the magnitude and frequency of certain natural disasters, increasing the likelihood of ecosystem change. Furthermore, when major episodic geophysical events (e.g., large earthquakes, tsunami, and floods; widespread volcanic activity and landslides) exceed thresholds of ecosystem resilience they may reset the attributes of entire systems or landscapes. Large disasters can initiate a cascade of linked events, as in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, where tsunami, fires, landslides, artificial fillslope collapses, radioactive releases, and associated health effects occurred. Understanding the potential for natural change (both chronic and episodic) in ecosystems is essential not only to the environmental aspect of sustainability but also to economic and social aspects. Examples are presented for: (1) ecosystems vulnerable to tipping points (Yunnan, China) and (2) ecosystems reset by earthquakes and

  2. The Emerging Promise of Business EcoSystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Carbone

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the relevance of new business models and ecosystems in the knowledge-era economy. We begin with an introduction then argue that the shift in what is valued drives the need for new business models. The third section provides examples of innovative business models. The fourth section describes two key roles in an ecosystem: keystone and niche player. Finally, the last section provides the conclusions of this article.

  3. Strategy scenario selection in the competition of mobile ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Hyun Joo; Kim, Jin Ki

    2013-01-01

    Competition in the mobile market is centered on platforms, or operating systems, for smartphones. The current competition and market structure of the global mobile market has shifted to a competition among ecosystems that utilize the same mobile operating systems of the platform operators. This paper aims to answer those questions. The direction of competition in the smartphone industry is traced. This study tries to list the selectable strategy options for each major ecosystem. Then the stra...

  4. Belowground ecosystems [chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carole Coe Klopatek

    1995-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service defined ecosystem management as "an ecological approach to achieve multiple-use management of national forests and grasslands by blending the needs of people and environmental values in such a way that national forests and grasslands represent diverse, healthy, productive, and sustainable ecosystems" (June 4, 1992, letter from Chief FS...

  5. Payments for Ecosystem Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chan, Kai M.A; Anderson, Emily K.; Chapman, Mollie

    2017-01-01

    Payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs are one prominent strategy to address economic externalities of resource extraction and commodity production, improving both social and ecological outcomes. But do PES and related incentive programs achieve that lofty goal? Along with considerable en...... sustainable relationships with nature, conserving and restoring ecosystems and their benefits for people now and in the future....

  6. Ecosystem Management and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.D. Peine; B.L. Jacobs; K.E. Franzreb; M.R. Stevens

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem management (EM) promotes an integrated approach to environmental issues; its central goal is the protection of entire ecosystems. By focusing on an interdisciplinary solution to environmental challenges, EM can help to synthesize societal, economic scientific, and governmental goals. Furthermore, as EM becomes part of the foundation of environmental...

  7. Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocock, K.L.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes information on the distribution and movement of radionuclides in semi-natural terrestrial ecosystems in north-west England with particular emphasis on inputs to, and outputs from ecosystems; on plant and soil aspects; and on radionuclides in fallout and in discharges by the nuclear industry. (author)

  8. Shifting currents: Progress, setbacks, and shifts in policy and practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Dunning, Charles; Robertson, Dale M.

    2016-01-01

    clean water future. More than a decade has passed since our first statewide WOW conversation and the report that captured recommendations from its participants: Waters of Wisconsin: The Future of Our Aquatic Ecosystems and Resources. Drawing from a diverse and growing set of stakeholders from across the state, the Wisconsin Academy initiated a new conversation in 2012 (known as WOW II) to assess progress in regard to our 2003 recommendations. We also sought to review the status of waters in Wisconsin today. The result of this renewed conversation is Shifting Currents: Progress, Setbacks, and Shifts in Policy and Practice. The new report assesses progress in brief, and explores in greater depth the continuing and emerging challenges to water quality, supply, and aquatic ecosystems in Wisconsin.In this report, we first review the context and frameworks for public decision-making about water and then examine some of the root causes—or “drivers”—and ecological stressors that underlie many of the symptoms we see in the form of pollution or ecosystem degradation in Wisconsin. This is followed by a summary of current water issues, many of which had been identified in the 2003 report and remain relevant today. We examine progress since 2003 but also setbacks, and discuss issues that we are likely to continue to face in the coming decades, including controlling agricultural runoff, mitigating climate change and grappling with its effects on the state’s waters, protecting groundwater from bacterial contamination and other pollutants, and preventing groundwater depletion. We also attempt to anticipate issues on the horizon. We offer a deeper look at some particular challenges, such as phosphorus pollution and groundwater contamination. We then consider the current decision-making framework and how it is shaping our capacity to respond to water challenges in Wisconsin. Finally, we offer recommendations and identify opportunities to safeguard Wisconsin’s waters in the

  9. Coastal ecosystems, productivity and ecosystem protection: Coastal ecosystem management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngoile, M.A.K.; Horrill, C.J.

    1993-01-01

    The coastal zone is a complex ecosystem under the influence of physical, chemical and biological processes. Under natural conditions these processes interact and maintain an equilibrium in the coastal ecosystem. Man makes a variety of important uses of coastal resources, ranging from harvesting of living resources, extraction of nonliving resources, and recreation, to the disposal of wastes. Man's extensive use of the oceans introduces factors which bring about an imbalance in the natural processes, and may result in harmful and hazardous effects to life hindering further use. Man's pressure on the resources of the coastal zone is already manifest and will increase manifold. This calls for an immediate solution to the protection and sustainable use of coastal resources. The current sectorized approach to the management of human activities will not solve the problem because the different resources of the coastal zone interact in such a manner that disturbances in one cause imbalance in the others. This is further complicated by the sectorized approach to research and limited communication between policy makers, managers, and scientists. This paper discusses strategies for managing coastal-resources use through an integrated approach. The coastal zone is presented as a unified ecosystem in equilibrium and shows that man's extensive use of the coastal resources destabilizes this equilibrium. Examples from the East Africa Region are presented. 15 refs, 2 figs, 3 tabs

  10. Mapping cultural ecosystem services:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Zulian, Grazia; Kopperoinen, Leena

    2014-01-01

    Research on ecosystem services mapping and valuing has increased significantly in recent years. However, compared to provisioning and regulating services, cultural ecosystem services have not yet been fully integrated into operational frameworks. One reason for this is that transdisciplinarity...... surveys are a main source of information. Among cultural ecosystem services, assessment of outdoor recreation can be based on a large pool of literature developed mostly in social and medical science, and landscape and ecology studies. This paper presents a methodology to include recreation...... in the conceptual framework for EU wide ecosystem assessments (Maes et al., 2013), which couples existing approaches for recreation management at country level with behavioural data derived from surveys, and population distribution data. The proposed framework is based on three components: the ecosystem function...

  11. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherwood, D.G.; Wilson, J.F.; Salton, R.B.; Fensterer, H.F.

    1981-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift reactor comprises apparatus for inserting and withdrawing water displacer elements from the reactor core for selectively changing the water-moderator volume in the core thereby changing the reactivity of the core. The apparatus includes drivemechanisms for moving the displacer elements relative to the core and guide mechanisms for guiding the displayer rods through the reactor vessel

  12. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherwood, D.G.; Wilson, J.F.; Salton, R.B.; Fensterer, H.F.

    1982-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift reactor comprises apparatus for inserting and withdrawing water displacer elements from the reactor core for selectively changing the water-moderator volume in the core thereby changing the reactivity of the core. The apparatus includes drive mechanisms for moving the displacer elements relative to the core and guide mechanisms for guiding the displacer rods through the reactor vessel. (author)

  13. Noise-induced stability in dryland plant ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2005-08-02

    Dryland plant ecosystems tend to exhibit bistable dynamics with two preferential configurations of bare and vegetated soils. Climate fluctuations are usually believed to act as a source of disturbance on these ecosystems and to reduce their stability and resilience. In contrast, this work shows that random interannual fluctuations of precipitation may lead to the emergence of an intermediate statistically stable condition between the two stable states of the deterministic dynamics of vegetation. As a result, there is an enhancement of ecosystem resilience and a decrease in the likelihood of catastrophic shifts to the desert state.

  14. Ecosystem approach in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabiullin, Iskander

    2017-04-01

    Environmental education is a base for sustainable development. Therefore, in our school we pay great attention to environmental education. Environmental education in our school is based on ecosystem approach. What is an ecosystem approach? Ecosystem is a fundamental concept of ecology. Living organisms and their non-living environments interact with each other as a system, and the biosphere planet functions as a global ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary for children to understand relationships in ecosystems, and we have to develop systems thinking in our students. Ecosystem approach and systems thinking should help us to solve global environmental problems. How do we implement the ecosystem approach? Students must understand that our biosphere functions as a single ecosystem and even small changes can lead to environmental disasters. Even the disappearance of one plant or animal species can lead to irreversible consequences. So in the classroom we learn the importance of each living organism for the nature. We pay special attention to endangered species, which are listed in the Red Data List. Kids are doing projects about these organisms, make videos, print brochures and newspapers. Fieldwork also plays an important role for ecosystem approach. Every summer, we go out for expeditions to study species of plants and animals listed in the Red Data List of Tatarstan. In class, students often write essays on behalf of any endangered species of plants or animals, this also helps them to understand the importance of each living organism in nature. Each spring we organise a festival of environmental projects among students. Groups of 4-5 students work on a solution of environmental problems, such as water, air or soil pollution, waste recycling, the loss of biodiversity, etc. Participants shoot a clip about their project, print brochures. Furthermore, some of the students participate in national and international scientific Olympiads with their projects. In addition to

  15. Broader perspective on ecosystem sustainability: consequences for decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidle, Roy C; Benson, William H; Carriger, John F; Kamai, Toshitaka

    2013-06-04

    Although the concept of ecosystem sustainability has a long-term focus, it is often viewed from a static system perspective. Because most ecosystems are dynamic, we explore sustainability assessments from three additional perspectives: resilient systems; systems where tipping points occur; and systems subject to episodic resetting. Whereas foundations of ecosystem resilience originated in ecology, recent discussions have focused on geophysical attributes, and it is recognized that dynamic system components may not return to their former state following perturbations. Tipping points emerge when chronic changes (typically anthropogenic, but sometimes natural) push ecosystems to thresholds that cause collapse of process and function and may become permanent. Ecosystem resetting occurs when episodic natural disasters breach thresholds with little or no warning, resulting in long-term changes to environmental attributes or ecosystem function. An example of sustainability assessment of ecosystem goods and services along the Gulf Coast (USA) demonstrates the need to include both the resilient and dynamic nature of biogeomorphic components. Mountain road development in northwest Yunnan, China, makes rivers and related habitat vulnerable to tipping points. Ecosystems reset by natural disasters are also presented, emphasizing the need to understand the magnitude frequency and interrelationships among major disturbances, as shown by (i) the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and resulting tsunami, including how unsustainable urban development exacerbates geodisaster propagation, and (ii) repeated major earthquakes and associated geomorphic and vegetation disturbances in Papua New Guinea. Although all of these ecosystem perturbations and shifts are individually recognized, they are not embraced in contemporary sustainable decision making.

  16. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.F.; Sherwood, D.G.

    1982-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift reactor comprises a reactive core having fuel assemblies accommodating both water displacer elements and neutron absorbing control rods for selectively changing the volume of water-moderator in the core. The fuel assemblies with displacer and control rods are arranged in alternating fashion so that one displacer element drive mechanism may move displacer elements in more than one fuel assembly without interfering with the movement of control rods of a corresponding control rod drive mechanisms. (author)

  17. Ecosystem quality in LCIA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Woods, John S.; Damiani, Mattia; Fantke, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results are used to assess potential environmental impacts of different products and services. As part of the UNEP-SETAC life cycle initiative flagship project that aims to harmonize indicators of potential environmental impacts, we provide a consensus...... viewpoint and recommendations for future developments in LCIA related to the ecosystem quality area of protection (AoP). Through our recommendations, we aim to encourage LCIA developments that improve the usefulness and global acceptability of LCIA results. Methods: We analyze current ecosystem quality...... metrics and provide recommendations to the LCIA research community for achieving further developments towards comparable and more ecologically relevant metrics addressing ecosystem quality. Results and discussion: We recommend that LCIA development for ecosystem quality should tend towards species...

  18. List identifies threatened ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-09-01

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) announced on 9 September that it will develop a new Red List of Ecosystems that will identify which ecosystems are vulnerable or endangered. The list, which is modeled on the group's Red List of Threatened Species™, could help to guide conservation activities and influence policy processes such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, according to the group. “We will assess the status of marine, terrestrial, freshwater, and subterranean ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels,” stated Jon Paul Rodriguez, leader of IUCN's Ecosystems Red List Thematic Group. “The assessment can then form the basis for concerted implementation action so that we can manage them sustainably if their risk of collapse is low or restore them if they are threatened and then monitor their recovery.”

  19. Formation of Service Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonas, Julia M.; Sörhammar, David; Satzger, Gerhard

    – i.e. the “birth phase” (Moore, 2009) of a service ecosystem. This paper, therefore, aims to explore how the somewhat “magic” processes of service ecosystem formation that are being taken for granted actually occur. Methodology/Approach: Building on a review of core elements in the definitions...... for Harvard students) or value proposition (share messages, photos, videos, etc. with friends). Processes of configuring actors, resources, and value propositions are influenced by the structural embeddedness of the service ecosystem (e.g., regional infrastructure, existing networks of actors, or resource...... availability) as well as guided by the actors’ own and shared institutions (e.g., rules, norms,and beliefs).We contextualize each starting point with illustrative cases and analyze the service ecosystem configuration process: “Axoon/Trumpf” (initiated by resources), “JOSEPHS – the service manufactory...

  20. Revisiting software ecosystems research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    ‘Software ecosystems’ is argued to first appear as a concept more than 10 years ago and software ecosystem research started to take off in 2010. We conduct a systematic literature study, based on the most extensive literature review in the field up to date, with two primarily aims: (a) to provide...... an updated overview of the field and (b) to document evolution in the field. In total, we analyze 231 papers from 2007 until 2014 and provide an overview of the research in software ecosystems. Our analysis reveals a field that is rapidly growing both in volume and empirical focus while becoming more mature...... from evolving. We propose means for future research and the community to address them. Finally, our analysis shapes the view of the field having evolved outside the existing definitions of software ecosystems and thus propose the update of the definition of software ecosystems....

  1. Ecosystem Analysis Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgess, R.L.

    1978-01-01

    Progress is reported on the following research programs: analysis and modeling of ecosystems; EDFB/IBP data center; biome analysis studies; land/water interaction studies; and computer programs for development of models

  2. Stakeholder Values and Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Sveinsdottir, Thordis; Wessels, Bridgette; Smallwood, Rod; Linde, Peter; Kalla, Vasso; Tsoukala, Victoria; Sondervan, Jeroen

    2013-01-01

    This report is the deliverable for Work Package 1 (WP1), Stakeholder Values and Ecosystems, of the EU FP7 funded project RECODE (Grant Agreement No: 321463), which focuses on developing Policy Recommendations for Open Access to Research Data in Europe. WP1 focuses on understanding stakeholder values and ecosystems in Open Access, dissemination and preservation in the area of scientific and scholarly data (thus not government data). The objectives of this WP are as follows: • Identify and map ...

  3. Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis-Reddy, Claire

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecoregions Terrestrial Biomes Protected Areas Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa | 75 7.2. Non-climatic drivers of ecosystem change 7.2.1. Land-use change, habitat loss and fragmentation Land-use change and landscape... concentrations of endemic plant and animal species, but these mainly occur in areas that are most threatened by human activity. Diverse terrestrial ecosystems in the region include tropical and sub-tropical forests, deserts, savannas, grasslands, mangroves...

  4. Privacy driven internet ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Trinh, Tuan Anh; Gyarmati, Laszlo

    2012-01-01

    The dominant business model of today's Internet is built upon advertisements; users can access Internet services while the providers show ads to them. Although significant efforts have been made to model and analyze the economic aspects of this ecosystem, the heart of the current status quo, namely privacy, has not received the attention of the research community yet. Accordingly, we propose an economic model of the privacy driven Internet ecosystem where privacy is handled as an asset that c...

  5. Progressive changes in the Western English Channel foster a reorganization in the plankton food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reygondeau, Gabriel; Molinero, J.C.; Coombs, S.

    2015-01-01

    . (2013) drive a profound restructuration of the plankton community modifying the phenology and the dominance of key planktonic groups including fish larvae. Consequently, the slow but deep modifications detected in the plankton community highlight a climate driven ecosystem shift in the Western English...

  6. Adaptation approaches for conserving ecosystems services and biodiversity in dynamic landscapes caused by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oswald J. Schmitz; Anne M. Trainor

    2014-01-01

    Climate change stands to cause animal species to shift their geographic ranges. This will cause ecosystems to become reorganized across landscapes as species migrate into and out of specific locations with attendant impacts on values and services that ecosystems provide to humans. Conservation in an era of climate change needs to ensure that landscapes are resilient by...

  7. Direct and terrestrial vegetation-mediated effects of environmental change on aquatic ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky A. Ball; John S. Kominoski; Heather E. Adams; Stuart E. Jones; Evan S. Kane; Terrance D. Loecke; Wendy M. Mahaney; Jason P. Martina; Chelse M. Prather; Todd M.P. Robinson; Christopher T. Solomon

    2010-01-01

    Global environmental changes have direct effects on aquatic ecosystems, as well as indirect effects through alterations of adjacent terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning. For example, shifts in terrestrial vegetation communities resulting from global changes can affect the quantity and quality of water, organic matter, and nutrient inputs to aquatic...

  8. On the ecosystemic network of saliva in healthy young adults

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaura, Egija; Brandt, Bernd W.; Prodan, Andrei; Teixeira De Mattos, Maarten Joost; Imangaliyev, Sultan; Kool, Jolanda; Buijs, Mark J.; Jagers, Ferry L.P.W.; Hennequin-Hoenderdos, Nienke L.; Slot, Dagmar E.; Fernandez Gutierrez, Maria; Kleerebezem, Michiel

    2017-01-01

    A dysbiotic state is believed to be a key factor in the onset of oral disease. Although oral diseases have been studied for decades, our understanding of oral health, the boundaries of a healthy oral ecosystem and ecological shift toward dysbiosis is still limited. Here, we present the

  9. The History of New Perspectives and Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Dale Robertson

    2004-01-01

    Abstract - Arkansas occupies a unique and important place in the history of New Perspectives and Ecosystem Management. An historic visit to the Ouachita National Forest by Senator David Pryor (D-Arkansas) in August 1990, thereafter called the walk in the woods, served as an opportunity to shift the Ouachita’s style of management in a manner that has...

  10. Novel urban ecosystems, biodiversity, and conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowarik, Ingo

    2011-01-01

    With increasing urbanization the importance of cities for biodiversity conservation grows. This paper reviews the ways in which biodiversity is affected by urbanization and discusses the consequences of different conservation approaches. Cities can be richer in plant species, including in native species, than rural areas. Alien species can lead to both homogenization and differentiation among urban regions. Urban habitats can harbor self-sustaining populations of rare and endangered native species, but cannot replace the complete functionality of (semi-)natural remnants. While many conservation approaches tend to focus on such relict habitats and native species in urban settings, this paper argues for a paradigm shift towards considering the whole range of urban ecosystems. Although conservation attitudes may be challenged by the novelty of some urban ecosystems, which are often linked to high numbers of nonnative species, it is promising to consider their associated ecosystem services, social benefits, and possible contribution to biodiversity conservation. - Highlights: → This paper reviews biotic responses to urbanization and urban conservation approaches. → Cities may be rich in both native and nonnative species. → Urban habitats cannot replace the functionality of natural remnants. → However, even novel urban habitats may harbour rare and endangered species. → Conservation approaches should consider the perspective of novel urban ecosystems. - This paper reviews the ways in which biodiversity is affected by urbanization and argues for expanding urban conservation approaches.

  11. Novel urban ecosystems, biodiversity, and conservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kowarik, Ingo, E-mail: kowarik@tu-berlin.de [Department of Ecology, Technische Universitaet Berlin, Rothenburgstr. 12, D 12165 Berlin (Germany)

    2011-08-15

    With increasing urbanization the importance of cities for biodiversity conservation grows. This paper reviews the ways in which biodiversity is affected by urbanization and discusses the consequences of different conservation approaches. Cities can be richer in plant species, including in native species, than rural areas. Alien species can lead to both homogenization and differentiation among urban regions. Urban habitats can harbor self-sustaining populations of rare and endangered native species, but cannot replace the complete functionality of (semi-)natural remnants. While many conservation approaches tend to focus on such relict habitats and native species in urban settings, this paper argues for a paradigm shift towards considering the whole range of urban ecosystems. Although conservation attitudes may be challenged by the novelty of some urban ecosystems, which are often linked to high numbers of nonnative species, it is promising to consider their associated ecosystem services, social benefits, and possible contribution to biodiversity conservation. - Highlights: > This paper reviews biotic responses to urbanization and urban conservation approaches. > Cities may be rich in both native and nonnative species. > Urban habitats cannot replace the functionality of natural remnants. > However, even novel urban habitats may harbour rare and endangered species. > Conservation approaches should consider the perspective of novel urban ecosystems. - This paper reviews the ways in which biodiversity is affected by urbanization and argues for expanding urban conservation approaches.

  12. Monetary accounting of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.; Edens, Bram; Schröter, Matthias; Hein, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting aims to provide a better understanding of ecosystem contributions to the economy in a spatially explicit way. Ecosystem accounting monitors ecosystem services and measures their monetary value using exchange values consistent with the System of National Accounts (SNA). We

  13. The shifting beverage landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storey, Maureen

    2010-04-26

    STOREY, M.L. The shifting beverage landscape. PHYSIOL BEHAV, 2010. - Simultaneous lifestyle changes have occurred in the last few decades, creating an imbalance in energy intake and energy expenditure that has led to overweight and obesity. Trends in the food supply show that total daily calories available per capita increased 28% since 1970. Total energy intake among men and women has also increased dramatically since that time. Some have suggested that intake of beverages has had a disproportional impact on obesity. Data collected by the Beverage Marketing Corporation between 1988-2008 demonstrate that, in reality, fewer calories per ounce are being produced by the beverage industry. Moreover, data from the National Cancer Institute show that soft drink intake represents 5.5% of daily calories. Data from NHANES 1999-2003 vs. 2003-06 may demonstrate a shift in beverage consumption for age/gender groups, ages 6 to>60years. The beverages provided in schools have significantly changed since 2006 when the beverage industry implemented School Beverage Guidelines. This voluntary action has removed full-calorie soft drinks from participating schools across the country. This shift to lower-calorie and smaller-portion beverages in school has led to a significant decrease in total beverage calories in schools. These data support the concept that to prevent and treat obesity, public health efforts should focus on energy balance and that a narrow focus on sweetened beverages is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on this complex problem. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Mechanical spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doshi, P.K.; George, R.A.; Dollard, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    A mechanical spectral shift arrangement for controlling a nuclear reactor includes a plurality of reactor coolant displacer members which are inserted into a reactor core at the beginning of the core life to reduce the volume of reactor coolant-moderator in the core at start-up. However, as the reactivity of the core declines with fuel depletion, selected displacer members are withdrawn from the core at selected time intervals to increase core moderation at a time when fuel reactivity is declining. (author)

  15. Spectral shift reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, W.R.; Piplica, E.J.

    1982-01-01

    A spectral shift pressurized water reactor comprising apparatus for inserting and withdrawing water displacer elements having differing neutron absorbing capabilities for selectively changing the water-moderator volume in the core thereby changing the reactivity of the core. The displacer elements comprise substantially hollow cylindrical low neutron absorbing rods and substantially hollow cylindrical thick walled stainless rods. Since the stainless steel displacer rods have greater neutron absorbing capability, they can effect greater reactivity change per rod. However, by arranging fewer stainless steel displacer rods in a cluster, the reactivity worth of the stainless steel displacer rod cluster can be less than a low neutron absorbing displacer rod cluster. (author)

  16. Network Skewness Measures Resilience in Lake Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langdon, P. G.; Wang, R.; Dearing, J.; Zhang, E.; Doncaster, P.; Yang, X.; Yang, H.; Dong, X.; Hu, Z.; Xu, M.; Yanjie, Z.; Shen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in ecosystem resilience defy straightforward quantification from biodiversity metrics, which ignore influences of community structure. Naturally self-organized network structures show positive skewness in the distribution of node connections. Here we test for skewness reduction in lake diatom communities facing anthropogenic stressors, across a network of 273 lakes in China containing 452 diatom species. Species connections show positively skewed distributions in little-impacted lakes, switching to negative skewness in lakes associated with human settlement, surrounding land-use change, and higher phosphorus concentration. Dated sediment cores reveal a down-shifting of network skewness as human impacts intensify, and reversal with recovery from disturbance. The appearance and degree of negative skew presents a new diagnostic for quantifying system resilience and impacts from exogenous forcing on ecosystem communities.

  17. Mobile Innovations in the Education Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Kim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shares macro-level perspectives drawn from business and engineering on the widespread efforts to bring innovation to education ecosystems. Significant shifts are occurring in the education marketplace: from content delivery technologies to video capturing and processing technologies. The changes involve a combination of large corporations and small innovative start-ups, for example, there is increased emphasis on engineering approaches to the integration of pedagogy and learning analytics into online education systems, more marketplace-based companies are surfacing, and global edupreneurs are building an array of skill-based training and workforce ecosystems. In short, it is highly predictable that the ways people acquire knowledge and learn new skills, evaluate competencies, and secure jobs will change drastically in the future.

  18. Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, Aliny Patricia Flauzino; Leal, Juliana da Silva; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. PMID:28422988

  19. Evaluating ecosystem services provided by non-native species: an experimental test in California grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Claudia; Hallett, Lauren M; Harpole, W Stanley; Suding, Katharine N

    2014-01-01

    The concept of ecosystem services--the benefits that nature provides to human's society--has gained increasing attention over the past decade. Increasing global abiotic and biotic change, including species invasions, is threatening the secure delivery of these ecosystem services. Efficient evaluation methods of ecosystem services are urgently needed to improve our ability to determine management strategies and restoration goals in face of these new emerging ecosystems. Considering a range of multiple ecosystem functions may be a useful way to determine such strategies. We tested this framework experimentally in California grasslands, where large shifts in species composition have occurred since the late 1700's. We compared a suite of ecosystem functions within one historic native and two non-native species assemblages under different grazing intensities to address how different species assemblages vary in provisioning, regulatory and supporting ecosystem services. Forage production was reduced in one non-native assemblage (medusahead). Cultural ecosystem services, such as native species diversity, were inherently lower in both non-native assemblages, whereas most other services were maintained across grazing intensities. All systems provided similar ecosystem services under the highest grazing intensity treatment, which simulated unsustainable grazing intensity. We suggest that applying a more comprehensive ecosystem framework that considers multiple ecosystem services to evaluate new emerging ecosystems is a valuable tool to determine management goals and how to intervene in a changing ecosystem.

  20. Repetition and Translation Shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Zupan

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Repetition manifests itself in different ways and at different levels of the text. The first basic type of repetition involves complete recurrences; in which a particular textual feature repeats in its entirety. The second type involves partial recurrences; in which the second repetition of the same textual feature includes certain modifications to the first occurrence. In the article; repetitive patterns in Edgar Allan Poe’s short story “The Fall of the House of Usher” and its Slovene translation; “Konec Usherjeve hiše”; are compared. The author examines different kinds of repetitive patterns. Repetitions are compared at both the micro- and macrostructural levels. As detailed analyses have shown; considerable microstructural translation shifts occur in certain types of repetitive patterns. Since these are not only occasional; sporadic phenomena; but are of a relatively high frequency; they reduce the translated text’s potential for achieving some of the gothic effects. The macrostructural textual property particularly affected by these shifts is the narrator’s experience as described by the narrative; which suffers a reduction in intensity.

  1. Dimensions of ecosystem theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, R.V.; Reichle, D.E.

    1979-01-01

    Various dimensions of ecosystem structure and behavior that seem to develop from the ubiquitous phenomena of system growth and persistence were studied. While growth and persistence attributes of ecosystems may appear to be simplistic phenomena upon which to base a comprehensive ecosystem theory, these same attributes have been fundamental to the theoretical development of other biological disciplines. These attributes were explored at a hierarchical level in a self-organizing system, and adaptive system strategies that result were analyzed. Previously developed causative relations (Reichle et al., 1975c) were examined, their theoretical implications expounded upon, and the assumptions tested with data from a variety of forest types. The conclusions are not a theory in themselves, but a state of organization of concepts contributing towards a unifying theory, along the lines promulgated by Bray (1958). The inferences drawn rely heavily upon data from forested ecosystems of the world, and have yet to be validated against data from a much more diverse range of ecosystem types. Not all of the interpretations are logically tight - there is room for other explanations, which it is hoped will provide fruitful grounds for further speculation

  2. Shift Work: Improving Daytime Sleep

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... night. Good daytime sleep is possible, though, if shift work is a necessary part of your work life. ... mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/adult-health/expert-answers/shift-work/faq-20057991 . Mayo Clinic Footer Legal Conditions and ...

  3. Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

    2018-06-01

    To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

  4. Forest restoration, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Globally, forests cover nearly one third of the land area and they contain over 80% of terrestrial biodiversity. Both the extent and quality of forest habitat continue to decrease and the associated loss of biodiversity jeopardizes forest ecosystem functioning and the ability of forests to provide ecosystem services. In the light of the increasing population pressure, it is of major importance not only to conserve, but also to restore forest ecosystems. Ecological restoration has recently started to adopt insights from the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) perspective. Central is the focus on restoring the relation between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here we provide an overview of important considerations related to forest restoration that can be inferred from this BEF-perspective. Restoring multiple forest functions requires multiple species. It is highly unlikely that species-poor plantations, which may be optimal for above-ground biomass production, will outperform species diverse assemblages for a combination of functions, including overall carbon storage and control over water and nutrient flows. Restoring stable forest functions also requires multiple species. In particular in the light of global climatic change scenarios, which predict more frequent extreme disturbances and climatic events, it is important to incorporate insights from the relation between biodiversity and stability of ecosystem functioning into forest restoration projects. Rather than focussing on species per se, focussing on functional diversity of tree species assemblages seems appropriate when selecting tree species for restoration. Finally, also plant genetic diversity and above - below-ground linkages should be considered during the restoration process, as these likely have prominent but until now poorly understood effects at the level of the ecosystem. The BEF-approach provides a useful framework to evaluate forest restoration in an ecosystem functioning context, but

  5. Lanthanide shift reagents, binding, shift mechanisms and exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, J.W.M. de

    1977-01-01

    Paramagnetic lanthanide shift reagents, when added to a solution of a substrate, induce shifts in the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrum of the substrate molecules. The induced shifts contain information about the structure of the shift reagent substrate complex. The structural information, however, may be difficult to extract because of the following effects: (1) different complexes between shift reagent and substrate may be present in solution, e.g. 1:1 and 1:2 complexes, and the shift observed is a weighed average of the shifts of the substrate nuclei in the different complexes; (2) the Fermi contact interaction, arising from the spin density at the nucleus, contributes to the induced shift; (3) chemical exchange effects may complicate the NMR spectrum. In this thesis, the results of an investigation into the influence of these effects on the NMR spectra of solutions containing a substrate and LSR are presented. The equations describing the pseudo contact and the Fermi contact shift are derived. In addition, it is shown how the modified Bloch equations describing the effect of the chemical exchange processes occurring in the systems studied can be reduced to the familiar equations for a two-site exchange case. The binding of mono- and bifunctional ethers to the shift reagent are reported. An analysis of the induced shifts is given. Finally, the results of the experiments performed to study the exchange behavior of dimethoxyethane and heptafluorodimethyloctanedionato ligands are presented

  6. Faktor Dan Penjadualan Shift Kerja

    OpenAIRE

    Maurits, Lientje Setyawati; Widodo, Imam Djati

    2008-01-01

    Work shift has negative effect in physical and mental health, work performance and job accident. Disturbance of circadian rhythms is indicated as source of the problems. This article explores some researches related to the impacts of work shift and establishes basic principles of work shift scheduling that considers human need and limitation.

  7. Isotope shifting capacity of rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blattner, P.; Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, Lower Hutt

    1980-01-01

    Any oxygen isotope shifted rock volume exactly defines a past throughput of water. An expression is derived that relates the throughput of an open system to the isotope shift of reservoir rock and present-day output. The small isotope shift of Ngawha reservoir rock and the small, high delta oxygen-18 output are best accounted for by a magmatic water source

  8. Working group 7: Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verheyen, R.

    1976-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the environmental impact of nuclear power plants. The effects of ionizing radiations, of the thermal and chemical pollution on aquatic ecosystems as well as on terrestrial ecosystems have been estimated. After a general survey of such effects and their interaction, practical conclusions in regard to determined areas such as Meuse-Escaut marine and the coast have been drawn. The contamination effects of food chains have been evaluted under deliberately pessimistic conditions with regard to the choice of the radionuclide as well as of concentration factors. Following the biodegradation conditions of the surface waters, criteria for the quality of the aquatic ecosystems have been established. Finally, attention has been paid on certain factors affecting the site selection especially within the frame of the nature conservation. The effects of cooling towers have been also considered. (G.C.)

  9. Sea Ice Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigo, Kevin R.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth. The liquid brine fraction of the ice matrix is home to a diverse array of organisms, ranging from tiny archaea to larger fish and invertebrates. These organisms can tolerate high brine salinity and low temperature but do best when conditions are milder. Thriving ice algal communities, generally dominated by diatoms, live at the ice/water interface and in recently flooded surface and interior layers, especially during spring, when temperatures begin to rise. Although protists dominate the sea ice biomass, heterotrophic bacteria are also abundant. The sea ice ecosystem provides food for a host of animals, with crustaceans being the most conspicuous. Uneaten organic matter from the ice sinks through the water column and feeds benthic ecosystems. As sea ice extent declines, ice algae likely contribute a shrinking fraction of the total amount of organic matter produced in polar waters.

  10. Drivers of treeline shift in different European mountains

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cudlín, Pavel; Klopčič, M.; Tognetti, R.; Máliš, F.; Alados, C. L.; Bebi, P.; Grunewald, K.; Zhiyanski, M.; Andonowski, V.; La Porta, N.; Bratanova-Doncheva, S.; Kachaunová, E.; Edwards-Jonášová, Magda; Ninot, J. M.; Rigling, A.; Hofgaard, A.; Hlásný, T.; Skalák, Petr; Wielgolaski, F. E.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 73, 1-2 (2017), s. 135-150 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠk(CZ) LD14039 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Vegetation zone shift * Climate change * Climate models * Treeline ecotone * European mountains * Ecosystem services Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016

  11. The shift in windpower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gipe, P.

    1992-01-01

    Despite new production records, the near-term market for new windpower projects in the US remains bleak. Congressional incentives and project proposals in the mid-1990s offer promise, but for now most development has shifted to Europe. During 1992 and 1993 the largest wind projects developed by US companies will not be in the US, but in the United Kingdom and Spain. Indeed, most of the US's windpower industry is going abroad, establishing offices overseas. This move toward Europe comes as little surprise. New project development for US firms has faltered at home while the European market has burgeoned. The topics of the article include the move to Europe, a reduction in California's share of producing wind power plants, a rise in Europe's share of producing wind power plants, the future market for wind power in the US, and reawakening California's market

  12. Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is undergoing major changes in many of its fundamental physical constituents, from a shift from multi- to first-year ice, shorter ice-covered periods, increasing freshwater runoff and surface stratification, to warming and alteration in the distribution of water masses....... These changes have important impacts on the chemical and biological processes that are at the root of marine food webs, influencing their structure, function and biodiversity. Here we summarise current knowledge on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and provide an overview of fundamental factors...... that structure ecosystem biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean. We also discuss climateassociated effects on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and discuss implications for the functioning of Arctic marine food webs. Based on the complexity and regional character of Arctic ecosystem reponses...

  13. Consumer-driven nutrient dynamics in freshwater ecosystems: from individuals to ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Carla L; Capps, Krista A; Rugenski, Amanda T; Vanni, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    The role of animals in modulating nutrient cycling [hereafter, consumer-driven nutrient dynamics (CND)] has been accepted as an important influence on both community structure and ecosystem function in aquatic systems. Yet there is great variability in the influence of CND across species and ecosystems, and the causes of this variation are not well understood. Here, we review and synthesize the mechanisms behind CND in fresh waters. We reviewed 131 articles on CND published between 1973 and 1 June 2015. The rate of new publications in CND has increased from 1.4 papers per year during 1973-2002 to 7.3 per year during 2003-2015. The majority of investigations are in North America with many concentrating on fish. More recent studies have focused on animal-mediated nutrient excretion rates relative to nutrient demand and indirect impacts (e.g. decomposition). We identified several mechanisms that influence CND across levels of biological organization. Factors affecting the stoichiometric plasticity of consumers, including body size, feeding history and ontogeny, play an important role in determining the impact of individual consumers on nutrient dynamics and underlie the stoichiometry of CND across time and space. The abiotic characteristics of an ecosystem affect the net impact of consumers on ecosystem processes by influencing consumer metabolic processes (e.g. consumption and excretion/egestion rates), non-CND supply of nutrients and ecosystem nutrient demand. Furthermore, the transformation and transport of elements by populations and communities of consumers also influences the flow of energy and nutrients across ecosystem boundaries. This review highlights that shifts in community composition or biomass of consumers and eco-evolutionary underpinnings can have strong effects on the functional role of consumers in ecosystem processes, yet these are relatively unexplored aspects of CND. Future research should evaluate the value of using species traits and abiotic

  14. Governance of Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Primmer, Eeva; Jokinen, Pekka; Blicharska, Malgorzata; Barton, David N.; Bugter, Rob; Potschin, Marion

    2015-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies justified with science and intrinsic value arguments have produced disappointing outcomes, and the need for conservation is now being additionally justified with the concept of ecosystem services. However, little, if any empirical attention is paid to ways in

  15. Shelf-sea ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, J J

    1980-01-01

    An analysis of the food chain dynamics of the Oregon, Alaskan, and New York shelves is made with respect to differences in physical forcing of these ecosystems. The world's shelves are 10% of the area of the ocean, yield 99% of the world's fish catch, and may be a major sink in the global CO/sub 2/ budget.

  16. Partitioning ecosystems for sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Martyn G

    2016-03-01

    Decline in the abundance of renewable natural resources (RNRs) coupled with increasing demands of an expanding human population will greatly intensify competition for Earth's natural resources during this century, yet curiously, analytical approaches to the management of productive ecosystems (ecological theory of wildlife harvesting, tragedy of the commons, green economics, and bioeconomics) give only peripheral attention to the driving influence of competition on resource exploitation. Here, I apply resource competition theory (RCT) to the exploitation of RNRs and derive four general policies in support of their sustainable and equitable use: (1) regulate resource extraction technology to avoid damage to the resource base; (2) increase efficiency of resource use and reduce waste at every step in the resource supply chain and distribution network; (3) partition ecosystems with the harvesting niche as the basic organizing principle for sustainable management of natural resources by multiple users; and (4) increase negative feedback between consumer and resource to bring about long-term sustainable use. A simple policy framework demonstrates how RCT integrates with other elements of sustainability science to better manage productive ecosystems. Several problem areas of RNR management are discussed in the light of RCT, including tragedy of the commons, overharvesting, resource collapse, bycatch, single species quotas, and simplification of ecosystems.

  17. Payment for ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Oddershede, Jakob Stoktoft; Pedersen, Anders Branth

    Research question: Northern Europe experiences an increasingly wet climate, leading to more frequent and severe fluvial flood events. Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is becoming recognised as a valuable yet under-utilised means to alleviating negative effects of a changing climate. This however,...

  18. Biocomplexity in Mangrove Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, I. C.; Lovelock, C. E.; Berger, U.; McKee, K. L.; Joye, S. B.; Ball, M. C.

    2010-01-01

    Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical coasts. Despite repeated demonstration of their economic and societal value, more than 50% of the world's mangroves have been destroyed, 35% in the past two decades to aquaculture and coastal development, altered hydrology, sea-level rise, and nutrient overenrichment. Variations in the structure and function of mangrove ecosystems have generally been described solely on the basis of a hierarchical classification of the physical characteristics of the intertidal environment, including climate, geomorphology, topography, and hydrology. Here, we use the concept of emergent properties at multiple levels within a hierarchical framework to review how the interplay between specialized adaptations and extreme trait plasticity that characterizes mangroves and intertidal environments gives rise to the biocomplexity that distinguishes mangrove ecosystems. The traits that allow mangroves to tolerate variable salinity, flooding, and nutrient availability influence ecosystem processes and ultimately the services they provide. We conclude that an integrated research strategy using emergent properties in empirical and theoretical studies provides a holistic approach for understanding and managing mangrove ecosystems.

  19. Adaptive management for ecosystem services (j/a) | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with manage

  20. Shifting environmental baselines in the Red Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, A R G; Ghazi, S J; Tkaczynski, P J; Venkatachalam, A J; Santillan, A; Pancho, T; Metcalfe, R; Saunders, J

    2014-01-15

    The Red Sea is among the world's top marine biodiversity hotspots. We re-examined coastal ecosystems at sites surveyed during the 1980s using the same methodology. Coral cover increased significantly towards the north, mirroring the reverse pattern for mangroves and other sedimentary ecosystems. Latitudinal patterns are broadly consistent across both surveys and with results from independent studies. Coral cover showed greatest change, declining significantly from a median score of 4 (1000-9999 m(2)) to 2 (10-99m(2)) per quadrat in 2010/11. This may partly reflect impact from coastal construction, which was evident at 40% of sites and has significantly increased in magnitude over 30 years. Beach oil has significantly declined, but shore debris has increased significantly. Although substantial, levels are lower than at some remote ocean atolls. While earlier reports have suggested that the Red Sea is generally healthy, shifting environmental baselines are evident from the current study. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimating ecosystem carbon change in the Conterminous United States based on 40 years of land-use change and disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Rayfield, B.; Liu, J.; Sherba, J.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Wilson, T. S.; Zhu, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Since 1970, the combined changes in land use, land management, climate, and natural disturbances have dramatically altered land cover in the United States, resulting in the potential for significant changes in terrestrial carbon storage and flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Processes including urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, and forest management have had impacts - both positive and negative - on the amount of natural vegetation, the age structure of forests, and the amount of impervious cover. Anthropogenic change coupled with climate-driven changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly the frequency and severity of wildfire, together determine the spatio-temporal patterns of land change and contribute to changing ecosystem carbon dynamics. Quantifying this effect and its associated uncertainties is fundamental to developing a rigorous and transparent carbon monitoring and assessment programs. However, large-scale systematic inventories of historical land change and their associated uncertainties are sparse. To address this need, we present a newly developed modeling framework, the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). The LUCAS model integrates readily available high quality, empirical land-change data into a stochastic space-time simulation model representing land change feedbacks on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We applied the LUCAS model to estimate regional scale changes in carbon storage, atmospheric flux, and net biome production in 84 ecological regions of the conterminous United States for the period 1970-2015. The model was parameterized using a newly available set of high resolution (30 m) land-change data, compiled from Landsat remote sensing imagery, including estimates of uncertainty. Carbon flux parameters for each ecological region were derived from the IBIS dynamic global vegetation model with full carbon cycle accounting. This paper presents our initial findings describing regional and

  2. Interannual Variations in Ecosystem Oxidative Ratio in Croplands, Deciduous Forest, Coniferous Forest, and Early Successional Forest Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masiello, C. A.; Hockaday, W. C.; Gallagher, M. E.; Calligan, L.

    2009-12-01

    Ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) can vary significantly with annual variations in precipitation and temperature. These climate variations can also drive changes in plant carbon allocation patterns. Shifting allocation patterns can lead to variation in net ecosystem biochemical stocks (e.g. kg cellulose, lignin, protein, and lipid/ha), which can in turn lead to shifts in ecosystem oxidative ratio (OR). OR is the molar ratio of O2 released : CO2 fixed during biosynthesis. Major plant biochemicals vary substantially in oxidative ratio, ranging from average organic acid OR values of 0.75 to average lipid OR values of 1.37 (Masiello et al., 2008). OR is a basic property of ecosystem biochemistry, and is also an essential variable needed to constrain the size of the terrestrial biospheric carbon sink (Keeling et al., 1996). OR is commonly assumed to be 1.10 (e.g. Prentice et al., 2001), but small variations in net ecosystem OR can drive large errors in estimates of the size of the terrestrial carbon sink (Randerson et al., 2006). We hypothesized that interannual changes in climate may drive interannual variation in ecosystem OR values. Working at Kellogg Biological Station NSF LTER, we measured the annual average OR of coniferous and deciduous forests, an early successional forest, and croplands under both corn and soy. There are clear distinctions between individual ecosystems (e.g., the soy crops have a higher OR than the corn crops, and the coniferous forests have a higher OR than the deciduous forests), but the ecosystems themselves retained remarkably constant annual OR values between 1998 and 2008.

  3. [Urban ecosystem services: A review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Qi-zheng; Huang, Gan-lin; Wu, Jian-guo

    2015-04-01

    Maintaining and improving ecosystem services in urban areas and human well-being are essential for sustainable development and therefore constitute an important topic in urban ecology. Here we reviewed studies on ecosystem services in urban areas. Based on the concept and classification of urban ecosystem services, we summarized characteristics of urban ecosystem services, including the human domination, high demand of ecosystem services in urban areas, spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services supply and demand in urban areas, multi-services of urban green infrastructures, the socio-economic dimension of ecosystem services supply and ecosystem disservices in urban areas. Among different urban ecosystem services, the regulating service and cultural service are particularly indispensable to benefit human health. We pointed out that tradeoffs among different types of ecosystem services mostly occur between supportive service and cultural service, as well as regulating service and cultural service. In particular, we emphasized the relationship between landscape design (i.e. green infrastructure) and ecosystem services supply. Finally, we discussed current gaps to link urban ecosystem services studies to landscape design and management and pointed out several directions for future research in urban ecosystem services.

  4. A hypothesis-testing framework for studies investigating ontogenetic niche shifts using stable isotope ratios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline M Hammerschlag-Peyer

    Full Text Available Ontogenetic niche shifts occur across diverse taxonomic groups, and can have critical implications for population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. In this study, we provide a hypothesis-testing framework combining univariate and multivariate analyses to examine ontogenetic niche shifts using stable isotope ratios. This framework is based on three distinct ontogenetic niche shift scenarios, i.e., (1 no niche shift, (2 niche expansion/reduction, and (3 discrete niche shift between size classes. We developed criteria for identifying each scenario, as based on three important resource use characteristics, i.e., niche width, niche position, and niche overlap. We provide an empirical example for each ontogenetic niche shift scenario, illustrating differences in resource use characteristics among different organisms. The present framework provides a foundation for future studies on ontogenetic niche shifts, and also can be applied to examine resource variability among other population sub-groupings (e.g., by sex or phenotype.

  5. Chemical shift imaging: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brateman, L.

    1986-01-01

    Chemical shift is the phenomenon that is seen when an isotope possessing a nuclear magnetic dipole moment resonates at a spectrum of resonance frequencies in a given magnetic field. These resonance frequencies, or chemical shifts, depend on the chemical environments of particular nuclei. Mapping the spatial distribution of nuclei associated with a particular chemical shift (e.g., hydrogen nuclei associated with water molecules or with lipid groups) is called chemical shift imaging. Several techniques of proton chemical shift imaging that have been applied in vivo are presented, and their clinical findings are reported and summarized. Acquiring high-resolution spectra for large numbers of volume elements in two or three dimensions may be prohibitive because of time constraints, but other methods of imaging lipid of water distributions (i.e., selective excitation, selective saturation, or variations in conventional magnetic resonance imaging pulse sequences) can provide chemical shift information. These techniques require less time, but they lack spectral information. Since fat deposition seen by chemical shift imaging may not be demonstrated by conventional magnetic resonance imaging, certain applications of chemical shift imaging, such as in the determination of fatty liver disease, have greater diagnostic utility than conventional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, edge artifacts caused by chemical shift effects can be eliminated by certain selective methods of data acquisition employed in chemical shift imaging

  6. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Population

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Population data sets provide baseline population information as one of the drivers of ecosystem change. The data helped in...

  7. Economic viewpoints on ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvis, H.J.; Heide, van der C.M.

    2013-01-01

    to help determine the different values of ecosystems. Ecosystem services are usually divided into four categories: provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and habitat services (previously denoted as supporting services). This overview highlights economic theories about

  8. Interregional flows of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, Matthias; Koellner, Thomas; Alkemade, Rob; Arnhold, Sebastian; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Erb, Karl Heinz; Frank, Karin; Kastner, Thomas; Kissinger, Meidad; Liu, Jianguo; López-Hoffman, Laura; Maes, Joachim; Marques, Alexandra; Martín-López, Berta; Meyer, Carsten; Schulp, Catharina J.E.; Thober, Jule; Wolff, Sarah; Bonn, Aletta

    2018-01-01

    Conserving and managing global natural capital requires an understanding of the complexity of flows of ecosystem services across geographic boundaries. Failing to understand and to incorporate these flows into national and international ecosystem assessments leads to incomplete and potentially

  9. Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2015-01-01

    Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

  10. Chemical shift homology in proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potts, Barbara C.M.; Chazin, Walter J.

    1998-01-01

    The degree of chemical shift similarity for homologous proteins has been determined from a chemical shift database of over 50 proteins representing a variety of families and folds, and spanning a wide range of sequence homologies. After sequence alignment, the similarity of the secondary chemical shifts of C α protons was examined as a function of amino acid sequence identity for 37 pairs of structurally homologous proteins. A correlation between sequence identity and secondary chemical shift rmsd was observed. Important insights are provided by examining the sequence identity of homologous proteins versus percentage of secondary chemical shifts that fall within 0.1 and 0.3 ppm thresholds. These results begin to establish practical guidelines for the extent of chemical shift similarity to expect among structurally homologous proteins

  11. Preface: Ecosystem services, ecosystem health and human communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, Hans-Peter

    2018-04-01

    This special issue contains a collection of manuscripts that were originally intended to be included in the special issue on "Physics and Economics of Ecosystem Services Flows" (Volume 101, guest editors H. Su, J. Dong and S. Nagarajan) and "Biogeochemical Processes in the Changing Wetland Environment" (Volume 103, guest editors J. Bai, L. Huang and H. Gao). All of them are addressing issues related to ecosystem services in different settings. Ecosystem services are of high value for both the ecosystems and human communities, and understanding the impacts of environmental processes and human activities on ecosystems is of fundamental importance for the preservation of these services.

  12. Promoting Transfer of Ecosystems Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yawen; Hmelo-Silver, Cindy E.; Jordan, Rebecca; Eberbach, Catherine; Sinha, Suparna

    2016-01-01

    This study examines to what extent students transferred their knowledge from a familiar aquatic ecosystem to an unfamiliar rainforest ecosystem after participating in a technology-rich inquiry curriculum. We coded students' drawings for components of important ecosystems concepts at pre- and posttest. Our analysis examined the extent to which each…

  13. The Coevolution of Digital Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    SungYong, Um

    2016-01-01

    Digital ecosystems are one of the most important strategic issues in the current digital economy. Digital ecosystems are dynamic and generative. They evolve as new firms join and as heterogeneous systems are integrated into other systems. These features digital ecosystems determine economic and technological success in the competition among…

  14. Shifted-modified Chebyshev filters

    OpenAIRE

    ŞENGÜL, Metin

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new type of filter approximation method that utilizes shifted-modified Chebyshev filters. Construction of the new filters involves the use of shifted-modified Chebyshev polynomials that are formed using the roots of conventional Chebyshev polynomials. The study also includes 2 tables containing the shifted-modified Chebyshev polynomials and the normalized element values for the low-pass prototype filters up to degree 6. The transducer power gain, group dela...

  15. Portable shift register

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halbig, J.K.; Bourret, S.C.; Hansen, W.J.; Hicks, D.V.; Klosterbuer, S.F.; Krick, M.S.

    1994-01-01

    An electronics package for a small, battery-operated, self-contained, neutron coincidence counter based on a portable shift-register (PSR) has been developed. The counter was developed for applications not adequately addressed by commercial packages, including in-plant measurements to demonstrate compliance with regulations (domestic and international), in-plant process control, and in-field measurements (environmental monitoring or safeguards). Our package's features, which address these applications, include the following: Small size for portability and ease of installation;battery or mains operation; a built-in battery to power the unit and a typical detector such as a small sample counter, for over 6 h if power lines are bad or noisy, if there is a temporary absence of power, or if portability is desired; complete support, including bias, for standard neutron detectors; a powerful communications package to easily facilitate robust external control over a serial port; and a C-library to simplify creating external control programs in computers or other controllers. Whereas the PSR specifically addresses the applications mentioned above, it also performs all the measurements made by previous electronics packages for neutron coincidence counters developed at Los Alamos and commercialized. The PSR electronics package, exclusive of carrying handle, is 8 by 10 by 20 cm; it contains the circuit boards, battery, and bias supply and weighs less than 2 kg. This instrument package is the second in an emerging family of portable measurement instruments being developed; the first was the Miniature and Modular Multichannel Analyzer (M 3 CA). The PSR makes extensive use of hardware and software developed for the M 3 CA; like the M 3 CA, it is intended primarily for use with an external controller interfaced over a serial channel

  16. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G W

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.

  17. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P.; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G. W.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered. PMID:28898262

  18. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Dirnböck

    Full Text Available Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+ together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.

  19. Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röpke, Cristhiana P; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J G; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H S; Winemiller, Kirk O

    2017-01-10

    Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon.

  20. Quantized beam shifts in graphene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-10-08

    We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α2. We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

  1. Drought effects on ecosystem functioning and interactions with CO2 and warming - results from CLIMAITE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Claus; Ibrom, Andreas; Linden, Leon G.; Selsted, Merete B.; Albert, Kristian R.; Kongstad, Jane; Andresen, Louise C.

    2010-05-01

    Current predictions indicate that, unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, atmospheric CO2 concentrations will double during the present century inducing an additional 1.4 to 5.8oC increase in mean global temperature, alterations in global and regional precipitation patterns, and increase the frequency and magnitude of severe weather events (e.g. droughts and floods). Such changes will have strong effects on the terrestrial ecosystems as CO2, temperature and water are main drivers in ecosystem processes. There is growing concern that climate driven changes in precipitation patterns and water availability will have significant effects on ecosystem processes and functioning, and in some regions may be the most influential climate change factor. Yet, it has received much less attention in recent climate change research relative to elevated CO2 and temperature. Furthermore, most precipitation experiments have focussed on water alone despite the fact that at least CO2 and temperature will change simultaneously and both of these factors will have direct or indirect effects on water status and use in the ecosystem. In the CLIMAITE project a Danish heathland has been exposed since 2005 to elevated CO2, temperature and extended drought in a full factorial experiment (Mikkelsen et al., 2008). The CO2 concentration in the canopy level is elevated by 50% by the Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) technique, temperature is elevated by 1-2 °C by the passive night time warming technique and summer drought is extended for 4-6 weeks by rain out shelters. The full factor combination mimics recent climate projections for Denmark 2075. Following the experiments, responses of major ecosystem processes and functioning is recorded. Drought generally leads to hypothesised reductions in most ecosystem processes during and shortly after the drought but on the short term, many of these processes also show a strong potential to recover during rewetting. Drought reduces

  2. Marine Ecosystem Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasler, Berit; Ahtiainen, Heini; Hasselström, Linus

    MARECOS (Marine Ecosystem Services) er et tværfagligt studie, der har haft til formål at tilvejebringe information vedrørende kortlægning og værdisætning af økosystemtjenester, som kan anvendes i forbindelse med udformning af regulering på det marine område såvel nationalt, som regionalt og inter...

  3. The river ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Descy, J.P.; Lambinon, J.

    1984-01-01

    From the standpoint of the ecologist, a river is an ecosystem characterized by its biocoenosis, in dynamic equilibrium with the abiotic environment. This ecosystem can be envisaged at the structural level by examining its physical, chemical and biological properties, together with the relationships existing between these compartments. The biocoenotic structure of a river is relatively complex: it manifests, among other specific features, the presence of plankton communities which show marked space-time variations. The function of the river ecosystem can be approximated by a study of the relationships between the biotic and abiotic components: primary production, secondary production, recycling of organic matter, etc. Lotic environments are subject to frequent disturbance from various forms of man-made pollution: organic pollution, eutrophization, thermal pollution, mineral pollution, contamination by organic and mineral micropollutants, as well as by radionuclides, mechanical pollution and physical degradation. The biocoenotic effects of these forms of pollution may be evaluated, in particular, using biological indicators (bioindicators): these are either able to show the overall impact of the pollution on the biocoenosis or else they permit the detection and evaluation of certain pollutant forms. (author)

  4. Characterizing the Danish telemedicine ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos; Hansen, Klaus Marius

    2013-01-01

    and interoperability issues, silo solutions, and lack of guidelines and standards. In this paper, we characterise the ecosystem evolved around the telemedicine services in Denmark and study the actors involved in this ecosystem. We establish a method for this study, where we define two actor roles and ways...... of characterizing actor contributions, and apply the method to the largest healthcare region of Denmark. Our findings reveal an ecosystem that is relatively closed to new actors, where the actors tend to be related to single telemedicine applications, the applications have low connectivity, and the most influential...... actors of the ecosystem can be characterised as both being beneficial and inhibitory to the ecosystem prosperity....

  5. Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisano, Masumi; Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

    2018-02-01

    Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  6. Ecosystem Management. A Management View

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

    The need for management of the marine ecosystem using a broad perspective has been recommended under a variety of names. This paper uses the term Ecosystem Management, which is seen as a convergence between the ecological idea of an organisational hierarchy and the idea of strategic planning...... with a planning hierarchy---with the ecosystem being the strategic planning level. Management planning requires, in order to establish a quantifiable means and ends chain, that the goals at the ecosystem level can be linked to operational levels; ecosystem properties must therefore be reducible to lower...... organisational levels. Emergence caused by constraints at both the component and system levels gives rise to phenomena that can create links between the ecosystem and operational levels. To create these links, the ecosystem's functional elements must be grouped according to their functionality, ignoring any...

  7. Work shifts in Emergency Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Recupero

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Emergency Medicine is known as a high stress specialty. The adverse effect of constantly rotating shifts is the single most important reason given for premature attrition from the field. In this work problems tied with night shift work will be taken into account and some solutions to reduce the impact of night work on the emergency physicians will be proposed.

  8. Flexible Schedules and Shift Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beers, Thomas M.

    2000-01-01

    Flexible work hours have gained prominence, as more than 25 million workers (27.6% of all full-time workers) can now vary their schedules. However, there has been little change since the mid-1980s in the proportion who work a shift other than a regular daytime shift. (JOW)

  9. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K.; Fenichel, Eli P.

    2017-01-01

    We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio’s performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth. PMID:28588145

  10. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K; Fenichel, Eli P

    2017-06-20

    We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio's performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth.

  11. Forest Ecosystem Processes at the Watershed Scale: Ecosystem services, feedback and evolution in developing mountainous catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Band, Larry

    2010-05-01

    Mountain watersheds provide significant ecosystem services both locally and for surrounding regions, including the provision of freshwater, hydropower, carbon sequestration, habitat, forest products and recreational/aesthetic opportunities. The hydrologic connectivity along hillslopes in sloping terrain provides an upslope subsidy of water and nutrients to downslope ecosystem patches, producing characteristic ecosystem patterns of vegetation density and type, and soil biogeochemical cycling. Recent work suggests that optimal patterns of forest cover evolve along these flowpaths which maximize net primary productivity and carbon sequestration at the hillslope to catchment scale. These watersheds are under significant pressure from potential climate change, changes in forest management, increasing population and development, and increasing demand for water export. As water balance and flowpaths are altered by shifting weather patterns and new development, the spatial distribution and coupling of water, carbon and nutrient cycling will spur the evolution of different ecosystem patterns. These issues have both theoretical and practical implications for the coupling of water, carbon and nutrient cycling at the landscape level, and the potential to manage watersheds for bundled ecosystem services. If the spatial structure of the ecosystem spontaneously adjusts to maximize landscape level use of limiting resources, there may be trade-offs in the level of services provided. The well known carbon-for-water tradeoff reflects the growth of forests to maximize carbon uptake, but also transpiration which limits freshwater availability in many biomes. We provide examples of the response of bundled ecosystem services to climate and land use change in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of the United States. These mountains have very high net primary productivity, biodiversity and water yields, and provide significant freshwater resources to surrounding regions. There has been a

  12. Developing micro-level urban ecosystem indicators for sustainability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dizdaroglu, Didem

    2015-01-01

    Sustainability assessment is increasingly being viewed as an important tool to aid in the shift towards sustainable urban ecosystems. An urban ecosystem is a dynamic system and requires regular monitoring and assessment through a set of relevant indicators. An indicator is a parameter which provides information about the state of the environment by producing a quantitative value. Indicator-based sustainability assessment needs to be considered on all spatial scales to provide efficient information of urban ecosystem sustainability. The detailed data is necessary to assess environmental change in urban ecosystems at local scale and easily transfer this information to the national and global scales. This paper proposes a set of key micro-level urban ecosystem indicators for monitoring the sustainability of residential developments. The proposed indicator framework measures the sustainability performance of urban ecosystem in 3 main categories including: natural environment, built environment, and socio-economic environment which are made up of 9 sub-categories, consisting of 23 indicators. This paper also describes theoretical foundations for the selection of each indicator with reference to the literature [tr

  13. Simultaneous shifts in elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids of Emiliania huxleyi in response to environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Rong; Ismar, Stefanie M. H.; Sommer, Ulrich; Zhao, Meixun

    2018-02-01

    Climate-driven changes in environmental conditions have significant and complex effects on marine ecosystems. Variability in phytoplankton elements and biochemicals can be important for global ocean biogeochemistry and ecological functions, while there is currently limited understanding on how elements and biochemicals respond to the changing environments in key coccolithophore species such as Emiliania huxleyi. We investigated responses of elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids (FAs) in a strain of E. huxleyi under three temperatures (12, 18 and 24 °C), three N : P supply ratios (molar ratios 10:1, 24:1 and 63:1) and two pCO2 levels (560 and 2400 µatm). Overall, C : N : P stoichiometry showed the most pronounced response to N : P supply ratios, with high ratios of particulate organic carbon vs. particulate organic nitrogen (POC : PON) and low ratios of PON vs. particulate organic phosphorus (PON : POP) in low-N media, and high POC : POP and PON : POP in low-P media. The ratio of particulate inorganic carbon vs. POC (PIC : POC) and polyunsaturated fatty acid proportions strongly responded to temperature and pCO2, both being lower under high pCO2 and higher with warming. We observed synergistic interactions between warming and nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2) on elemental cellular contents and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) proportion in most cases, indicating the enhanced effect of warming under nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2). Our results suggest differential sensitivity of elements and FAs to the changes in temperature, nutrient availability and pCO2 in E. huxleyi, which is to some extent unique compared to non-calcifying algal classes. Thus, simultaneous changes of elements and FAs should be considered when predicting future roles of E. huxleyi in the biotic-mediated connection between biogeochemical cycles, ecological functions and climate change.

  14. Dynamics of a producer-freeloader ecosystem on the brink of collapse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Lei; Gore, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystems can undergo sudden shifts to undesirable states, but recent studies with simple single-species ecosystems have demonstrated that advance warning can be provided by the slowing down of population dynamics near a tipping point. However, it is unclear how this “critical slowing down” will manifest in ecosystems with strong interactions between their components. Here we probe the dynamics of an experimental producer-freeloader ecosystem as it approaches a catastrophic collapse. Surprisingly, the producer population grows in size as the environment deteriorates, highlighting that population size can be a misleading measure of ecosystem stability. By analyzing the oscillatory producer-freeloader dynamics for over 100 generations in multiple environmental conditions, we find that the collective ecosystem dynamics slow down as the tipping point is approached. Analysis of the coupled dynamics of interacting populations may therefore be necessary to provide advance warning of collapse in complex communities. PMID:24785661

  15. Complex trophic interactions in kelp forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Danner, E.M.; Doak, D.F.; Konar, B.; Springer, A.M.; Steinberg, P.D.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, T.M.

    2004-01-01

    The distributions and abundances of species and populations change almost continuously. Understanding the processes responsible is perhaps ecology’s most fundamental challenge. Kelp-forest ecosystems in southwest Alaska have undergone several phase shifts between alga- and herbivore-dominated states in recent decades. Overhunting and recovery of sea otters caused the earlier shifts. Studies focusing on these changes demonstrate the importance of top-down forcing processes, a variety of indirect food-web interactions associated with the otter-urchin-kelp trophic cascade, and the role of food-chain length in the coevolution of defense and resistance in plants and their herbivores. This system unexpectedly shifted back to an herbivore-dominated state during the 1990s, because of a sea-otter population collapse that apparently was driven by increased predation by killer whales. Reasons for this change remain uncertain but seem to be linked to the whole-sale collapse of marine mammals in the North Pacific Ocean and southern Bering Sea. We hypothesize that killer whales sequentially "fished down" pinniped and sea-otter populations after their earlier prey, the great whales, were decimated by commercial whaling. The dynamics of kelp forests in southwest Alaska thus appears to have been influenced by an ecological chain reaction that encompassed numerous species and large scales of space and time.

  16. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

    2011-01-01

    The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

  17. Shifted Baselines Reduce Willingness to Pay for Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loren McClenachan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A loss of memory of past environmental degradation has resulted in shifted baselines, which may result in conservation and restoration goals that are less ambitious than if stakeholders had a full knowledge of ecosystem potential. However, the link between perception of baseline states and support for conservation planning has not been tested empirically. Here, we investigate how perceptions of change in coral reef ecosystems affect stakeholders' willingness to pay (WTP for the establishment of protected areas. Coral reefs are experiencing rapid, global change that is observable by the public, and therefore provide an ideal ecosystem to test links between beliefs about baseline states and willingness to support conservation. Our survey respondents perceived change to coral reef communities across six variables: coral abundance, fish abundance, fish diversity, fish size, sedimentation, and water pollution. Respondants who accurately perceived declines in reef health had significantly higher WTP for protected areas (US $256.80 vs. $102.50 per year, suggesting that shifted baselines may reduce engagement with conservation efforts. If WTP translates to engagement, this suggests that goals for restoration and recovery are likely to be more ambitious if the public is aware of long term change. Therefore, communicating the scope and depth of environmental problems is essential in engaging the public in conservation.

  18. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    , nutrients). With limited resources, these complementary experiments should be focused in high-priority ecosystems, with experimental treatments designed to address the major uncertainties in each system. Critical ecosystems, both managed and unmanaged, have been identified using the above criteria and key uncertainties in current understanding of ecosystem processes used to identify critical issues and experiments. The sizes of both the whole-ecosystem experiments and the multifactor experimental treatment units must be based on the sizes of the dominant organisms, the scale of major processes in each system, and the spatial heterogeneity of each system. For example, large-scale ecosystem manipulations in temperate forests should evaluate at a minimum CO{sub 2} and temperature and could be conducted on small, gauged catchments. The multifactor process experiments should address all major environmental driving variables, and the treatment units should be large enough to include multiple individuals of the major tree species. This approach represents a fundamental shift in the scale and integration of experimental ecosystem research: from the current small-scale, single- or two-factor experiments in simple natural or artificial ecosystems to highly coordinated, large-scale, replicated experiments in complex ecosystems, with multiple interacting factors being evaluated at two (or more) complementary levels of spatial scale and process resolution. These experiments will require an unprecedented long-term funding commitment and concentration of large-scale experimental research at a few major sites, with significant new investment in infrastructure to support large interdisciplinary teams of scientists.

  19. Sustainable web ecosystem design

    CERN Document Server

    O'Toole, Greg

    2013-01-01

    This book is about the process of creating web-based systems (i.e., websites, content, etc.) that consider each of the parts, the modules, the organisms - binary or otherwise - that make up a balanced, sustainable web ecosystem. In the current media-rich environment, a website is more than a collection of relative html documents of text and images on a static desktop computer monitor. There is now an unlimited combination of screens, devices, platforms, browsers, locations, versions, users, and exabytes of data with which to interact. Written in a highly approachable, practical style, this boo

  20. Alternative states of a semiarid grassland ecosystem: implications for ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark E.; Belote, R. Travis; Bowker, Matthew A.; Garman, Steven L.

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystems can shift between alternative states characterized by persistent differences in structure, function, and capacity to provide ecosystem services valued by society. We examined empirical evidence for alternative states in a semiarid grassland ecosystem where topographic complexity and contrasting management regimes have led to spatial variations in levels of livestock grazing. Using an inventory data set, we found that plots (n = 72) cluster into three groups corresponding to generalized alternative states identified in an a priori conceptual model. One cluster (biocrust) is notable for high coverage of a biological soil crust functional group in addition to vascular plants. Another (grass-bare) lacks biological crust but retains perennial grasses at levels similar to the biocrust cluster. A third (annualized-bare) is dominated by invasive annual plants. Occurrence of grass-bare and annualized-bare conditions in areas where livestock have been excluded for over 30 years demonstrates the persistence of these states. Significant differences among all three clusters were found for percent bare ground, percent total live cover, and functional group richness. Using data for vegetation structure and soil erodibility, we also found large among-cluster differences in average levels of dust emissions predicted by a wind-erosion model. Predicted emissions were highest for the annualized-bare cluster and lowest for the biocrust cluster, which was characterized by zero or minimal emissions even under conditions of extreme wind. Results illustrate potential trade-offs among ecosystem services including livestock production, soil retention, carbon storage, and biodiversity conservation. Improved understanding of these trade-offs may assist ecosystem managers when evaluating alternative management strategies.

  1. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

    2016-12-01

    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  2. Climatic drivers for multidecadal shifts in solute transport and methane production zones within a large peat basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Paul H.; Siegel, Donald I.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Reeve, Andrew S.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Corbett, J. Elizabeth; Dasgupta, Soumitri; Levy, Zeno

    2016-01-01

    Northern peatlands are an important source for greenhouse gases, but their capacity to produce methane remains uncertain under changing climatic conditions. We therefore analyzed a 43 year time series of the pore-water chemistry to determine if long-term shifts in precipitation altered the vertical transport of solutes within a large peat basin in northern Minnesota. These data suggest that rates of methane production can be finely tuned to multidecadal shifts in precipitation that drive the vertical penetration of labile carbon substrates within the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. Tritium and cation profiles demonstrate that only the upper meter of these peat deposits was flushed by downwardly moving recharge from 1965 to 1983 during a Transitional Dry-to-Moist Period. However, a shift to a moister climate after 1984 drove surface waters much deeper, largely flushing the pore waters of all bogs and fens to depths of 2 m. Labile carbon compounds were transported downward from the rhizosphere to the basal peat at this time producing a substantial enrichment of methane in Δ14C with respect to the solid-phase peat from 1991 to 2008. These data indicate that labile carbon substrates can fuel deep production zones of methanogenesis that more than doubled in thickness across this large peat basin after 1984. Moreover, the entire peat profile apparently has the capacity to produce methane from labile carbon substrates depending on climate-driven modes of solute transport. Future changes in precipitation may therefore play a central role in determining the source strength of peatlands in the global methane cycle.

  3. Climatic Drivers for Multi-Decadal Shifts in Solute Transport and Methane Production Zones within a Large Peat Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Paul H.; Siegel, Donald I.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Reeve, Andrew S.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Corbett, J. Elizabeth; Dasgupta, Soumitri; Levy, Zeno

    2016-01-01

    Northern peatlands are an important source for greenhouse gases but their capacity to produce methane remains uncertain under changing climatic conditions. We therefore analyzed a 43-year time series of pore-water chemistry to determine if long-term shifts in precipitation altered the vertical transport of solutes within a large peat basin in northern Minnesota. These data suggest that rates of methane production can be finely tuned to multi-decadal shifts in precipitation that drive the vertical penetration of labile carbon substrates within the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. Tritium and cation profiles demonstrate that only the upper meter of these peat deposits was flushed by downwardly moving recharge from 1965 through 1983 during a Transitional Dry-to-Moist Period. However, a shift to a moister climate after 1984 drove surface waters much deeper, largely flushing the pore waters of all bogs and fens to depths of 2 m. Labile carbon compounds were transported downward from the rhizosphere to the basal peat at this time producing a substantial enrichment of methane in Delta C-14 with respect to the solid-phase peat from 1991 to 2008. These data indicate that labile carbon substrates can fuel deep production zones of methanogenesis that more than doubled in thickness across this large peat basin after 1984. Moreover, the entire peat profile apparently has the capacity to produce methane from labile carbon substrates depending on climate-driven modes of solute transport. Future changes in precipitation may therefore play a central role in determining the source strength of peatlands in the global methane cycle.

  4. Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

    2018-01-01

    Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

  5. Developing micro-level urban ecosystem indicators for sustainability assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dizdaroglu, Didem, E-mail: dizdaroglu@bilkent.edu.tr

    2015-09-15

    Sustainability assessment is increasingly being viewed as an important tool to aid in the shift towards sustainable urban ecosystems. An urban ecosystem is a dynamic system and requires regular monitoring and assessment through a set of relevant indicators. An indicator is a parameter which provides information about the state of the environment by producing a quantitative value. Indicator-based sustainability assessment needs to be considered on all spatial scales to provide efficient information of urban ecosystem sustainability. The detailed data is necessary to assess environmental change in urban ecosystems at local scale and easily transfer this information to the national and global scales. This paper proposes a set of key micro-level urban ecosystem indicators for monitoring the sustainability of residential developments. The proposed indicator framework measures the sustainability performance of urban ecosystem in 3 main categories including: natural environment, built environment, and socio-economic environment which are made up of 9 sub-categories, consisting of 23 indicators. This paper also describes theoretical foundations for the selection of each indicator with reference to the literature [Turkish] Highlights: • As the impacts of environmental problems have multi-scale characteristics, sustainability assessment needs to be considered on all scales. • The detailed data is necessary to assess local environmental change in urban ecosystems to provide insights into the national and global scales. • This paper proposes a set of key micro-level urban ecosystem indicators for monitoring the sustainability of residential developments. • This paper also describes theoretical foundations for the selection of each indicator with reference to the literature.

  6. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

  7. Radio-capacity of ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kultakhmedov, Yu.; Kultakhmedova-Vyshnyakova, V.

    1997-01-01

    This paper consider a universal approach to ecosystems of different types, based on representation of their radio-capacity. The concept of ecosystem includes reproduction of components (bio-productivity) and conditions such as maintaining of environment quality. Radio-capacity in the case of radionuclide pollution appears in accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides in the ecosystem. As a result the radionuclides are redistributed and buried in soil or lake bottom sediments. Estimation models for the radio-capacity of water and terrestrial ecosystems are represented. The calculations of the radio-capacity factor of water ecosystems are performed, and the high radio-capacity of a freshwater reservoir (F=0.6-0.8) and extremely high radio-capacity of a reservoir cascade (F c =0.99) is shown material from the Dnieper's cascade reservoirs. The methods of radio-capacity estimation of agroecosystems, wood and marine ecosystems are developed. (authors)

  8. Inequalities for scattering phase shifts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumgartner, B.; Grosse, H.

    1985-01-01

    A recently developed method, which was used to derive bounds on energy levels, is applied to continuous spectra and gives relations between scattering phase shifts of various angular momenta. (Author)

  9. Isotope shifts in unstable nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebel, H.

    1980-05-01

    Current experimental investigations of isotope shifts in atomic spectra of unstable nuclei and the resulting information about size and shape of nuclei far off stability are discussed with reference to some representative examples. (orig.)

  10. Ecosystem services for energy security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athanas, Andrea; McCormick, Nadine

    2010-09-15

    The world is at an energy crossroads. The changes underway will have implications for ecosystems and livelihoods. Energy security is the reliable supply of affordable energy, of which there are two dimensions; reliability and resilience. Changes in ecosystem services linked to degradation and climate change have the potential to impact both on the reliabiity of energy systems and on their resiliance. Investing in ecosystems can help safeguard energy systems, and mitigate unforeseen risks to energy security. The energy and conservation community should come together to build reliable and resilliant energy systems in ways which recognise and value supporting ecosystems.

  11. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Biodiversity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Biodiversity provides data and information on amphibians, disease agents (extent and distribution of infectious and parasitic...

  12. Mercury in Nordic ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munthe, John; Waengberg, Ingvar (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Stockholm (SE)); Rognerud, Sigurd; Fjeld, Eirik (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo (Norway)); Verta, Matti; Porvari, Petri (Finnish Environment Inst. (SYKE), Helsinki (Finland)); Meili, Markus (Inst. of Applied Environmental Research (ITM), Stockholm (Sweden))

    2007-12-15

    This report provides a first comprehensive compilation and assessment of available data on mercury in air, precipitation, sediments and fish in the Nordic countries. The main conclusion is that mercury levels in Nordic ecosystems continue to be affected by long-range atmospheric transport. The geographical patterns of mercury concentrations in both sediments and fish are also strongly affected by ecosystem characteristics and in some regions possibly by historical pollution. An evaluation of geographical variations in mercury concentrations in precipitation indicates that the influence from anthropogenic sources from Central European areas is still significant. The annual variability of deposition is large and dependant of precipitation amounts. An evaluation of data from stations around the North Sea has indicated a significant decrease in mercury concentrations in precipitation indicating a continuous decrease of emissions in Europe (Waengberg et al., 2007). For mercury in air (TGM), the geographical pattern is less pronounced indicating the influence of mercury emissions and distribution over a larger geographical area (i.e. hemispherical transport). Comparison of recent (surficial) and historical lake sediments show significantly elevated concentrations of mercury most likely caused by anthropogenic atmospheric deposition over the past century. The highest pollution impact was observed in the coastal areas of southern Norway, in south western Finland and in Sweden from the coastal areas in the southwest across the central parts to the north-east. The general increase in recent versus old sediments was 2-5 fold. Data on mercury in Nordic freshwater fish was assembled and evaluated with respect to geographical variations. The fish data were further compared with temporal and spatial trends in mercury deposition and mercury contamination of lake sediments in order to investigate the coupling between atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury and local mercury

  13. Appropriate experimental ecosystem warming methods by ecosystem, objective, and practicality

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.L. Aronson; S.G. McNulty

    2009-01-01

    The temperature of the Earth is rising, and is highly likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The study of the effects of sustained heating on the ecosystems of the world is necessary so that wemight predict and respond to coming changes on both large and small spatial scales. To this end, ecosystem warming studies have...

  14. Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Benavides, Raquel; Kunstler, Georges; Espelta, Josep M; Ogaya, Romá; Peñuelas, Josep; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Gil, Wojciech; Grodzki, Wojciech; Ambrozy, Slawomir; Bergh, Johan; Hódar, José A; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-08-01

    Predicting climate-driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30-year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based approach. MD Smith, A Jarre. Abstract. This study explores the usefulness of a frame-based modelling approach in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, with four frames describing observed small pelagic fish dominance patterns. We modelled the ...

  16. Radionuclides in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strebl, F.; Bossew, P.; Kienzl, K.; Hiesel, E.

    2000-01-01

    Some regions within Austria were highly contaminated (> 50 kBq m -2 ) with radiocaesium by the deposition event following the Chernobyl reactor accident in 1986. Monitoring carried out by several Austrian institutions showed that in contrast to agricultural products radiocaesium levels in wild berries, mushrooms and game meat from forest ecosystems remained considerably higher over the years. To find reasons for this contrasting radioecological behavior and for the derivation of model input parameters, an extended study about the distribution of 137 Cs within three Austrian forest stands was carried out between 1987 and 1997. Results of this and subsequent studies are summarized and include the following ecosystem compartments: forest soils, litter, trees, bilberry, mushrooms, mosses, ferns, lichen, other vegetation, insects, small mammals, game animals and surface water. Besides the investigation of radioecological behavior an estimation of pool sizes and transfer rates as well as radioecological residence half times for 137 Cs in different forest species was used to compile a radiocaesium balance for the years 1988 and 1996. Soil proved to be an effective sink for radiocaesium contamination, but in long-term perspective it can act as a source for the contamination of vegetation and higher levels of the food-chain as well. Due to the high standing biomass trees represent the largest 'living' radiocaesium pool within the investigated forest stand. Dose estimations based on average consume habits gave no significant increase (less than 0.4 %) of the annual average population radiation dose due to the ingestion of forest products from the investigated forest stands. (author)

  17. Shifting schedules: the health effects of reorganizing shift work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambra, Clare L; Whitehead, Margaret M; Sowden, Amanda J; Akers, Joanne; Petticrew, Mark P

    2008-05-01

    Approximately one fifth of workers are engaged in some kind of shift work. The harmful effects of shift work on the health and work-life balance of employees are well known. A range of organizational interventions has been suggested to address these negative effects. This study undertook the systematic review (following Quality Of Reporting Of Meta [QUORUM] analyses guidelines) of experimental and quasi-experimental studies, from any country (in any language) that evaluated the effects on health and work-life balance of organizational-level interventions that redesign shift work schedules. Twenty-seven electronic databases (medical, social science, economic) were searched. Data extraction and quality appraisal were carried out by two independent reviewers. Narrative synthesis was performed. The review was conducted between October 2005 and November 2006. Twenty-six studies were found relating to a variety of organizational interventions. No one type of intervention was found to be consistently harmful to workers. However, three types were found to have beneficial effects on health and work-life balance: (1) switching from slow to fast rotation, (2) changing from backward to forward rotation, and (3) self-scheduling of shifts. Improvements were usually at little or no direct organizational cost. However, there were concerns about the generalizability of the evidence, and no studies reported on impacts on health inequalities. This review reinforces the findings of epidemiologic and laboratory-based research by suggesting that certain organizational-level interventions can improve the health of shift workers, their work-life balance, or both. This evidence could be useful when designing interventions to improve the experience of shift work.

  18. Wind impact on the Black Sea ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanichny, Sergey; Ratner, Yuriy; Shokurov, Mike; Stanychna, Rimma; Soloviev, Dmytro; Burdyugov, Vyacheslav

    2010-05-01

    Combination of the recent satellite and meteorological data for the regional investigation allowed to describe new features of the processes in marine ecosystem and detect some relations with wind variability for different time scales. Next topics are highlighted in presentation: 1. Inter-annual variability of the wind stress curl over the Black Sea. Shift in the atmospheric processes after 2003 year and related variations in chlorophyll concentration and intensity of the mesoscale currents. 2. Like-tropical cyclone in September 2005 and its impact o the Black Sea upper layer. 3. Strong storm November 11, 2007 and oil pollutions of the Kerch Strait. 4. Relation of the Danube waters transport with wind fields for summer 2007 and 2008. 5. "Valley" wind in the Eastern part of the Black Sea and its impact on the Rim current formation. 6. Low wind conditions and blue -green algae bloom. NCEP, SKIRON and MHI MM5 wind data together with AVHRR, MODIS, MERIS, ETM+, QuikSCAT, ASAR (ESA) satellite data were used for investigation. Work was done with support of the SESAME FP7, "Stable Ecosystem" and Operational Oceanography NASU projects.

  19. Understanding the mobile money ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tobbin, P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the structure of the new mobile money ecosystem and the roles of its key players. Mobile money is an evolving sector both in volume and in economic impact especially in the developing world. The paper is an exploratory study that investigates the structure of the ecosystem, p...

  20. Towards ecosystem-based management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tam, Jamie C.; Link, Jason S.; Rossberg, Axel G.; Rogers, Stuart I.; Levin, Philip S.; Rochet, Marie-Joelle; Bundy, Alida; Belgrano, Andrea; Libralato, Simone; Tomczak, Maciej; Wolfshaar, van de K.E.; Pranovi, Fabio; Gorokhova, Elena; Large, Scott I.; Niquil, Nathalie; Greenstreet, Simon P.R.; Druon, Jean-Noel; Lesutiene, Jurate; Johansen, Marie; Preciado, Izaskun; Patricio, Joana; Palialexis, Andreas; Tett, Paul; Johansen, Geir O.; Houle, Jennifer; Rindorf, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human and environmental) affecting marine ecosystems. The network of feeding interactions between co-existing species and populations (food webs) are an

  1. Ecology in Small Aquatic Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel René

    Small ecosystems are many-fold more abundant than their larger counterparts. Both on regional and global scale small lakes outnumber medium and large lakes and account for a much larger surface area. Small streams are also far more common than rivers. Despite their abundance small ecosystems are ...

  2. Carbon allocation in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creighton M. Litton; James W. Raich; Michael G. Ryan

    2007-01-01

    Carbon allocation plays a critical role in forest ecosystem carbon cycling. We reviewed existing literature and compiled annual carbon budgets for forest ecosystems to test a series of hypotheses addressing the patterns, plasticity, and limits of three components of allocation: biomass, the amount of material present; flux, the flow of carbon to a component per unit...

  3. Challenges in software ecosystems research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serebrenik, A.; Mens, T.; Crnkovic, I.

    2015-01-01

    The paper is a meta-analysis of the research field of software ecosystems, by method of surveying 26 authors in the field. It presents a relevant list of literature and six themes in which challenges for software ecosystems can be grouped: Architecture and Design, Governance, Dynamics and Evolution,

  4. Forest Ecosystem services: Water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; James Vose; Travis Warziniack; Bill Holman

    2017-01-01

    Since the publication of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005), awareness has steadily grown regarding the importance of maintaining natural capital. Forest vegetation is a valuable source of natural capital, and the regulation of water quantity and quality is among the most important forest ecosystem services in many regions around the world. Changes in...

  5. Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenckner, Thorsten; Llope, Marcos; Möllmann, Christian; Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F.; Casini, Michele; Lindegren, Martin; Folke, Carl; Chr. Stenseth, Nils

    2015-01-01

    Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change. PMID:25694626

  6. Soil microbial community successional patterns during forest ecosystem restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banning, Natasha C; Gleeson, Deirdre B; Grigg, Andrew H; Grant, Carl D; Andersen, Gary L; Brodie, Eoin L; Murphy, D V

    2011-09-01

    Soil microbial community characterization is increasingly being used to determine the responses of soils to stress and disturbances and to assess ecosystem sustainability. However, there is little experimental evidence to indicate that predictable patterns in microbial community structure or composition occur during secondary succession or ecosystem restoration. This study utilized a chronosequence of developing jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest ecosystems, rehabilitated after bauxite mining (up to 18 years old), to examine changes in soil bacterial and fungal community structures (by automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis [ARISA]) and changes in specific soil bacterial phyla by 16S rRNA gene microarray analysis. This study demonstrated that mining in these ecosystems significantly altered soil bacterial and fungal community structures. The hypothesis that the soil microbial community structures would become more similar to those of the surrounding nonmined forest with rehabilitation age was broadly supported by shifts in the bacterial but not the fungal community. Microarray analysis enabled the identification of clear successional trends in the bacterial community at the phylum level and supported the finding of an increase in similarity to nonmined forest soil with rehabilitation age. Changes in soil microbial community structure were significantly related to the size of the microbial biomass as well as numerous edaphic variables (including pH and C, N, and P nutrient concentrations). These findings suggest that soil bacterial community dynamics follow a pattern in developing ecosystems that may be predictable and can be conceptualized as providing an integrated assessment of numerous edaphic variables.

  7. An Indicator for ecosystem externalities in fishing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars; Andersen, Ken Haste; Vestergaard, Niels

    Ecosystem externalities arise when one use of an ecosystem affects its other uses through the production functions of the ecosystem.We use simulations from a size-spectrum ecosystem model to investigate the ecosystem externality created by fishing of multiple species. The model is based upon...

  8. Ecosystem Services : In Nordic Freshwater Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnussen, Kristin; Hasler, Berit; Zandersen, Marianne

    Human wellbeing is dependent upon and benefit from ecosystem services which are delivered by well-functioning ecosystems. Ecosystem services can be mapped and assessed consistently within an ecosystem service framework. This project aims to explore the use and usefulness of the ecosystem service ...

  9. Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Checkley, David M.; Koslow, J. Anthony

    2017-01-01

    concentrations and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean-atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases......, or whether the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom-up, top-down and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California...

  10. Plant Ecological Strategies Shift Across the Cretaceous–Paleogene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blonder, Benjamin; Royer, Dana L.; Johnson, Kirk R.; Miller, Ian; Enquist, Brian J.

    2014-01-01

    The Chicxulub bolide impact caused the end-Cretaceous mass extinction of plants, but the associated selectivity and ecological effects are poorly known. Using a unique set of North Dakota leaf fossil assemblages spanning 2.2 Myr across the event, we show among angiosperms a reduction of ecological strategies and selection for fast-growth strategies consistent with a hypothesized recovery from an impact winter. Leaf mass per area (carbon investment) decreased in both mean and variance, while vein density (carbon assimilation rate) increased in mean, consistent with a shift towards “fast” growth strategies. Plant extinction from the bolide impact resulted in a shift in functional trait space that likely had broad consequences for ecosystem functioning. PMID:25225914

  11. SAT in shift manager training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecuyer, F.

    1995-01-01

    EDF has improved the organization of the operation shift teams with the replacement of shift supervisor in shift manager function. The shift manager is not only responsible for tasks associated to plant operation (production), but he is also responsible for safety of these tasks and for management of shift team members. A job analysis of this new job position has been performed in order to design the training programme. It resulted in a 10-month training programme that includes 8 weeks in safety-related topics and 12 weeks in soft-skills related topics. The safety related training courses are mandatory, the other courses are optional courses depending on individual trainee needs. The training also includes the development of management competencies. During the 10 month period, each trainee develops an individual project that is evaluated by NPP manager. As well, as group project is undertaken by the trainees and overseen by a steering committee. The steering committee participates in the evaluation process and provides operational experience feedback to the trainee groups and to the overall programme

  12. Complex effects of ecosystem engineer loss on benthic ecosystem response to detrital macroalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, F.; Gribsholt, B.; Gazeau, F.; Di Santo, V.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies

  13. Complex Effects of Ecosystem Engineer Loss on Benthic Ecosystem Response to Detrital Macroalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, F.; Gribsholt, B.; Gazeau, F.; Di Santo, V.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies

  14. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. PMID:25394857

  15. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

  16. Catastrophic regime shifts in model ecological communities are true phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, J A; Cuesta, J A

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in external conditions. Usual models introduce nonlinearities in the macroscopic dynamics of the ecosystem that lead to different stable attractors among which the shift takes place. Here we propose an alternative explanation of catastrophic regime shifts based on a recent model that pictures ecological communities as systems in continuous fluctuation, according to certain transition probabilities, between different micro-states in the phase space of viable communities. We introduce a spontaneous extinction rate that accounts for gradual changes in external conditions, and upon variations on this control parameter the system undergoes a regime shift with similar features to those previously reported. Under our microscopic viewpoint we recover the main results obtained in previous theoretical and empirical work (anomalous variance, hysteresis cycles, trophic cascades). The model predicts a gradual loss of species in trophic levels from bottom to top near the transition. But more importantly, the spectral analysis of the transition probability matrix allows us to rigorously establish that we are observing the fingerprints, in a finite size system, of a true phase transition driven by background extinctions

  17. Does the ARFIMA really shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monache, Davide Delle; Grassi, Stefano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    Short memory models contaminated by level shifts have long-memory features similar to those associated to processes generated under fractional integration. In this paper, we propose a robust testing procedure, based on an encompassing parametric specification, that allows to disentangle the level...... the highest power compared to other existing tests for spurious long-memory. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach on the daily series of bipower variation and share turnover and on the monthly inflation series of G7 countries....... shift term from the ARFIMA component. The estimation is carried out via a state-space methodology and it leads to a robust estimate of the fractional integration parameter also in presence of level shifts.The Monte Carlo simulations show that this approach produces unbiased estimates of the fractional...

  18. Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

  19. Paradigm Shifts in Ophthalmic Diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebag, J; Sadun, Alfredo A; Pierce, Eric A

    2016-08-01

    Future advances in ophthalmology will see a paradigm shift in diagnostics from a focus on dysfunction and disease to better measures of psychophysical function and health. Practical methods to define genotypes will be increasingly important and non-invasive nanotechnologies are needed to detect molecular changes that predate histopathology. This is not a review nor meant to be comprehensive. Specific topics have been selected to illustrate the principles of important paradigm shifts that will influence the future of ophthalmic diagnostics. It is our impression that future evaluation of vision will go beyond visual acuity to assess ocular health in terms of psychophysical function. The definition of disease will incorporate genotype into what has historically been a phenotype-centric discipline. Non-invasive nanotechnologies will enable a paradigm shift from disease detection on a cellular level to a sub-cellular molecular level. Vision can be evaluated beyond visual acuity by measuring contrast sensitivity, color vision, and macular function, as these provide better insights into the impact of aging and disease. Distortions can be quantified and the psychophysical basis of vision can be better evaluated than in the past by designing tests that assess particular macular cell function(s). Advances in our understanding of the genetic basis of eye diseases will enable better characterization of ocular health and disease. Non-invasive nanotechnologies can assess molecular changes in the lens, vitreous, and macula that predate visible pathology. Oxygen metabolism and circulatory physiology are measurable indices of ocular health that can detect variations of physiology and early disease. This overview of paradigm shifts in ophthalmology suggests that the future will see significant improvements in ophthalmic diagnostics. The selected topics illustrate the principles of these paradigm shifts and should serve as a guide to further research and development. Indeed

  20. Morphisms Between Sofic Shift Spaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jan Agentoft

    The lower entropy factor problem asks for necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a factor map from a (mixing) sofic shift space onto another (mixing) sofic subshift of lower entropy. The problem was posed by Mike Boyle in 1984. It remains an open problem, but the present thesis...... gives a re-formulation which can be used to effectively decide the question for a larger class of sofic shifts than all previous results. In addition, the methods are used to make progress on the corresponding embedding problem which asks for necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence...

  1. Shift-Variant Multidimensional Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-29

    x,y;u,v) is the system response at (x,y) to an unit impulse applied at (u,v). The presence of additive noise in the preceding input-output model of a...space model developed works very effi- ciently to deblur images affected by 2-D linear shift- varying blurs, its use, in presence of noise needs to be...causal linear shift-variant (LSV) system, whose impulse res- ponse is a K-th order degenerate sequence, a K-th order state-space model was obtained

  2. Explaining (Missing) Regulator Paradigm Shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wigger, Angela; Buch-Hansen, Hubert

    2014-01-01

    The global financial and economic crisis has prompted some scholars to suggest that a fundamental regulatory shift away from neoliberalism will take place – both in general and in the field of EU competition regulation. This paper shows that so far no radical break with the neoliberal type...... regulation after the crisis in the 1970s, the paper argues that the preconditions for a fundamental shift in this issue area are not present this time around. Several reasons account for this: the current crisis has been construed by economic and political elites as a crisis within and not of neoliberal...

  3. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hao; Luo, Peng; Wang, Jun; Mou, Chengxiang; Mo, Li; Wang, Zhiyuan; Fu, Yao; Lin, Honghui; Yang, Yongping; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt

    2015-01-01

    Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang) increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  4. Water quality and ecosystem management: Data-driven reality check of effects in streams and lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destouni, Georgia; Fischer, Ida; Prieto, Carmen

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates nutrient-related water quality conditions and change trends in the first management periods of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD; since 2009) and Baltic Sea Action Plan (BASP; since 2007). With mitigation of nutrients in inland waters and their discharges to the Baltic Sea being a common WFD and BSAP target, we use Sweden as a case study of observable effects, by compiling and analyzing all openly available water and nutrient monitoring data across Sweden since 2003. The data compilation reveals that nutrient monitoring covers only around 1% (down to 0.2% for nutrient loads) of the total number of WFD-classified stream and lake water bodies in Sweden. The data analysis further shows that the hydro-climatically driven water discharge dominates the determination of waterborne loads of both total phosphorus and total nitrogen across Sweden. Both water discharge and the related nutrient loads are in turn well correlated with the ecosystem status classification of Swedish water bodies. Nutrient concentrations do not exhibit such correlation and their changes over the study period are on average small, but concentration increases are found for moderate-to-bad status waters, for which both the WFD and the BSAP have instead targeted concentration decreases. In general, these results indicate insufficient distinction and mitigation of human-driven nutrient components in inland waters and their discharges to the sea by the internationally harmonized applications of the WFD and the BSAP. The results call for further comparative investigations of observable large-scale effects of such regulatory/management frameworks in different parts of the world.

  5. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yang

    Full Text Available Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  6. Ecosystem functional response across precipitation extremes in a sagebrush steppe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Taylor, J Bret; Adler, Peter B

    2018-01-01

    Precipitation is predicted to become more variable in the western United States, meaning years of above and below average precipitation will become more common. Periods of extreme precipitation are major drivers of interannual variability in ecosystem functioning in water limited communities, but how ecosystems respond to these extremes over the long-term may shift with precipitation means and variances. Long-term changes in ecosystem functional response could reflect compensatory changes in species composition or species reaching physiological thresholds at extreme precipitation levels. We conducted a five year precipitation manipulation experiment in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem in Idaho, United States. We used drought and irrigation treatments (approximately 50% decrease/increase) to investigate whether ecosystem functional response remains consistent under sustained high or low precipitation. We recorded data on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species abundance, and soil moisture. We fit a generalized linear mixed effects model to determine if the relationship between ANPP and soil moisture differed among treatments. We used nonmetric multidimensional scaling to quantify community composition over the five years. Ecosystem functional response, defined as the relationship between soil moisture and ANPP, was similar among irrigation and control treatments, but the drought treatment had a greater slope than the control treatment. However, all estimates for the effect of soil moisture on ANPP overlapped zero, indicating the relationship is weak and uncertain regardless of treatment. There was also large spatial variation in ANPP within-years, which contributes to the uncertainty of the soil moisture effect. Plant community composition was remarkably stable over the course of the experiment and did not differ among treatments. Despite some evidence that ecosystem functional response became more sensitive under sustained drought conditions, the response

  7. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. This manuscript explores various methods of assessing the transition between alternative states in an ecological system described by a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset.

  8. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-06-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

  9. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-01-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence. (paper)

  10. Parasite infection alters nitrogen cycling at the ecosystem scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mischler, John; Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Townsend, Alan R

    2016-05-01

    Despite growing evidence that parasites often alter nutrient flows through their hosts and can comprise a substantial amount of biomass in many systems, whether endemic parasites influence ecosystem nutrient cycling, and which nutrient pathways may be important, remains conjectural. A framework to evaluate how endemic parasites alter nutrient cycling across varied ecosystems requires an understanding of the following: (i) parasite effects on host nutrient excretion; (ii) ecosystem nutrient limitation; (iii) effects of parasite abundance, host density, host functional role and host excretion rate on nutrient flows; and (iv) how this infection-induced nutrient flux compares to other pools and fluxes. Pathogens that significantly increase the availability of a limiting nutrient within an ecosystem should produce a measurable ecosystem-scale response. Here, we combined field-derived estimates of trematode parasite infections in aquatic snails with measurements of snail excretion and tissue stoichiometry to show that parasites are capable of altering nutrient excretion in their intermediate host snails (dominant grazers). We integrated laboratory measurements of host nitrogen excretion with field-based estimates of infection in an ecosystem model and compared these fluxes to other pools and fluxes of nitrogen as measured in the field. Eighteen nitrogen-limited ponds were examined to determine whether infection had a measurable effect on ecosystem-scale nitrogen cycling. Because of their low nitrogen content and high demand for host carbon, parasites accelerated the rate at which infected hosts excreted nitrogen to the water column in a dose-response manner, thereby shifting nutrient stoichiometry and availability at the ecosystem scale. Infection-enhanced fluxes of dissolved inorganic nitrogen were similar to other commonly important environmental sources of bioavailable nitrogen to the system. Additional field measurements within nitrogen-limited ponds indicated that

  11. Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mooney, H

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available of ecosystems, deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings for ecosystem service delivery and develop new tools and techniques for maintaining and restoring resilient biological and social systems. We will be building on an ecosystem foundation...

  12. Towards a consistent approach for ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edens, B.; Hein, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    In spite of an increasing interest in environmental economic accounting, there is still very limited experience with the integration of ecosystem services and ecosystem capital in national accounts. This paper identifies four key methodological challenges in developing ecosystem accounts: the

  13. Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, B.J.; Kennedy, V.H.; Nelson, A.

    1983-06-01

    A bibliographical database has been developed to provide quick access to research and background literature in the field of radioecology. This is a development of an earlier database described by Nelson (Bocock 1981). ITE's particular fields of interest have led to a subject bias in the bibliography towards studies in Cumbria, especially those concerned with radionuclides originating from the reprocessing plant at Sellafield, and towards ecological research studies that are complementary to radionuclide studies. Other subjects covered, include the chemistry of radionuclides, budgets and transfers within ecosystems and techniques for the analysis of environmental samples. ITE's research objectives have led to the establishment of a specialized database which is intended to complement rather than compete with the large international databases made available by suppliers such as IRS-DIALTECH or DIALOG. Currently the database holds about 1900 references which are stored on a 2 1/2 megabyte hard disk on a Digital PDP11/34 computer operating under a time shared system. The references follow a standard format. (author)

  14. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Tudela, Sergi; Palomera, Isabel; Pranovi, Fabio

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impacts of fishing-i.e., the level of ecosystem overfishing. Here we evaluate the historical and current risk of ecosystem overfishing at a global scale by quantifying the depletion of secondary production using the best available fisheries and ecological data (i.e., catch and primary production). Our results highlight an increasing trend in the number of unsustainable fisheries (i.e., an increase in the risk of ecosystem overfishing) from the 1950s to the 2000s, and illustrate the worldwide geographic expansion of overfishing. These results enable to assess when and where fishing became unsustainable at the ecosystem level. At present, total catch per capita from Large Marine Ecosystems is at least twice the value estimated to ensure fishing at moderate sustainable levels.

  15. Ecosystems science: Genes to landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2018-05-09

    Bountiful fisheries, healthy and resilient wildlife, flourishing forests and vibrant grasslands are coveted resources that benefit all Americans. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science supports the conservation and management of the Nation’s fish and wildlife, and the landscapes they inhabit. Our biological resources—ecosystems and the wild things that live in them—are the foundation of our conservation heritage and an economic asset to current and future generations of Americans.The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area, the biological research arm of the Department of the Interior (DOI), provides science to help America achieve sustainable management and conservation of its biological resources. This work is done within the broader mission of the USGS—to serve the Nation with science that advances understanding of our natural resources, informs land and water stewardship, and helps safeguard communities from natural and environmental hazards. The Ecosystems Mission Area provides research, technical assistance, and education conducted by Cooperative Research Units and Science Centers located in nearly every State.The quality of life and economic strength in America hinges on healthy ecosystems that support living things and natural processes. Ecosystem science better enables society to understand how and why ecosystems change and to guide actions that can prevent damage to, and restore and sustain ecosystems. It is through this knowledge that informed decisions are made about natural resources that can enhance our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being.

  16. Ecosystem services provided by bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Thomas H; Braun de Torrez, Elizabeth; Bauer, Dana; Lobova, Tatyana; Fleming, Theodore H

    2011-03-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits obtained from the environment that increase human well-being. Economic valuation is conducted by measuring the human welfare gains or losses that result from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Bats have long been postulated to play important roles in arthropod suppression, seed dispersal, and pollination; however, only recently have these ecosystem services begun to be thoroughly evaluated. Here, we review the available literature on the ecological and economic impact of ecosystem services provided by bats. We describe dietary preferences, foraging behaviors, adaptations, and phylogenetic histories of insectivorous, frugivorous, and nectarivorous bats worldwide in the context of their respective ecosystem services. For each trophic ensemble, we discuss the consequences of these ecological interactions on both natural and agricultural systems. Throughout this review, we highlight the research needed to fully determine the ecosystem services in question. Finally, we provide a comprehensive overview of economic valuation of ecosystem services. Unfortunately, few studies estimating the economic value of ecosystem services provided by bats have been conducted to date; however, we outline a framework that could be used in future studies to more fully address this question. Consumptive goods provided by bats, such as food and guano, are often exchanged in markets where the market price indicates an economic value. Nonmarket valuation methods can be used to estimate the economic value of nonconsumptive services, including inputs to agricultural production and recreational activities. Information on the ecological and economic value of ecosystem services provided by bats can be used to inform decisions regarding where and when to protect or restore bat populations and associated habitats, as well as to improve public perception of bats. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  17. Ecosystem Services: Benefits Supplied to Human Societies by Natural Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    The module provides a link to an article that is part of a series of articles in Issues in Ecology. This article discusses the many services an ecosystem provides in order to sustain and fulfill human needs.

  18. Leadership Shifts in Changing Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubrzycki, Jaclyn

    2013-01-01

    As groups representing local and state education players struggle to remain relevant in a policy conversation often dominated by foundations, think tanks, new advocacy groups, and political and business figures, a shift in leadership has been under way at major associations. Most of the changes have come as part of the natural churn; former…

  19. Crichton's phase-shift ambiguity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Atkinson, D.; Johnson, P.W.; Mehta, N.; Roo, M. de

    1973-01-01

    A re-examination of the SPD phase-shift ambiguity is made with a view to understanding certain singular features of the elastic unitarity constraint. An explicit solution of Crichton's equations is presented, and certain features of this solution are displayed graphically. In particular, it is shown

  20. Environmental Protection: a shifting focus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dr. ir. Jan Venselaar

    2004-01-01

    The last two decades have seen a fundamental change in the way chemistry handles environmental issues. A shift in focus has occurred from 'end-of-pipe' to prevention and process integration. Presently an even more fundamental change is brought about by the need for sustainable development. It is

  1. Anthropometric changes and fluid shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, W. E.; Hoffler, G. W.; Rummel, J. A.

    1974-01-01

    Several observations of body size, shape, posture, and configuration were made to document changes resulting from direct effects of weightlessness during the Skylab 4 mission. After the crewmen were placed in orbit, a number of anatomical and anthropometric changes occurred including a straightening of the thoracolumbar spine, a general decrease in truncal girth, and an increase in height. By the time of the earliest in-flight measurement on mission day 3, all crewmen had lost more than two liters of extravascular fluid from the calf and thigh. The puffy facies, the bird legs effect, the engorgement of upper body veins, and the reduced volume of lower body veins were all documented with photographs. Center-of-mass measurements confirmed a fluid shift cephalad. This shift remained throughout the mission until recovery, when a sharp reversal occurred; a major portion of the reversal was completed in a few hours. The anatomical changes are of considerable scientific interest and of import to the human factors design engineer, but the shifts of blood and extravascular fluid are of more consequence. It is hypothesized that the driving force for the fluid shift is the intrinsic and unopposed lower limb elasticity that forces venous blood and then other fluid cephalad.

  2. Ontogenetic functional diversity: size structure of a keystone predator drives functioning of a complex ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolf, Volker H W; Rasmussen, Nick L

    2013-05-01

    A central challenge in community ecology is to understand the connection between biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems. While traditional approaches have largely focused on species-level diversity, increasing evidence indicates that there exists substantial ecological diversity among individuals within species. By far, the largest source of this intraspecific diversity stems from variation among individuals in ontogenetic stage and size. Although such ontogenetic shifts are ubiquitous in natural communities, whether and how they scale up to influence the structure and functioning of complex ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we take an experimental approach to examine the consequences of ontogenetic niche shifts for the structure of communities and ecosystem processes. In particular we experimentally manipulated the stage structure in a keystone predator, larvae of the dragonfly Anax junius, in complex experimental pond communities to test whether changes in the population stage or size structure of a keystone species scale up to alter community structure and ecosystem processes, and how functional differences scale with relative differences in size among stages. We found that the functional role of A. junius was stage-specific. Altering what stages were present in a pond led to concurrent changes in community structure, primary producer biomass (periphyton and phytoplankton), and ultimately altered ecosystem processes (respiration and net primary productivity), indicating a strong, but stage-specific, trophic cascade. Interestingly, the stage-specific effects did not simply scale with size or biomass of the predator, but instead indicated clear ontogenetic niche shifts in ecological interactions. Thus, functional differences among stages within a keystone species scaled up to alter the functioning of entire ecosystems. Therefore, our results indicate that the classical approach of assuming an average functional role of a species can be misleading because

  3. Climate-driven population divergence in sex-determining systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pen, Ido; Uller, Tobias; Feldmeyer, Barbara; Harts, Anna; While, Geoffrey M.; Wapstra, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Sex determination is a fundamental biological process, yet its mechanisms are remarkably diverse(1,2). In vertebrates, sex can be determined by inherited genetic factors or by the temperature experienced during embryonic development(2,3). However, the evolutionary causes of this diversity remain

  4. Climate-driven flushing of pore water in peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, D. I.; Reeve, A. S.; Glaser, P. H.; Romanowicz, E. A.

    1995-04-01

    NORTHERN peatlands can act as either important sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon1,2. It is therefore important to understand how carbon cycling in these regions will respond to a changing climate. Existing carbon balance models for peatlands assume that fluid flow and advective mass transport are negligible at depth3,4, and that the effects of climate change should be essentially limited to the near-surface. Here we report the response of groundwater flow and porewater chemistry in the Glacial Lake Agassiz peat-lands of northern Minnesota to the regional drought cycle. Comparison of field observations and numerical simulations indicates that climate fluctuations of short duration may temporarily reverse the vertical direction of fluid flow through the peat, although this has little effect on water chemistry5. On the other hand, periods of drought persisting for at least 3-5 years produce striking changes in the chemistry of the pore water. These longer-term changes in hydrology influence the flux of nutrients and dissolved organic matter through the deeper peat, and therefore affect directly the rates of fermentation and methanogenesis, and the export of dissolved carbon compounds from the peatland.

  5. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Yu

    2018-03-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth's hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 121(11):8352-8370, 2016) by combining the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with an ocean model output. In this study, we reconstructed the observed seasonal geocenter motion with geophysical model predictions of mass variations in the polar ice sheets, continental glaciers, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and atmosphere and dynamic ocean (AO). The reconstructed geocenter motion time series is shown to be in close agreement with the solution based on GRACE data supporting with an ocean bottom pressure model. Over 85% of the observed geocenter motion time series, variance can be explained by the reconstructed solution, which allows a further investigation of the driving mechanisms. We then demonstrated that AO component accounts for 54, 62, and 25% of the observed geocenter motion variances in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. The TWS component alone explains 42, 32, and 39% of the observed variances. The net mass changes over oceans together with self-attraction and loading effects also contribute significantly (about 30%) to the seasonal geocenter motion in the X and Z directions. Other contributing sources, on the other hand, have marginal (less than 10%) impact on the seasonal variations but introduce a linear trend in the time series.

  6. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Y.

    2018-01-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth’s hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid

  7. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  8. Implications of tristability in pattern-forming ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelnik, Yuval R.; Gandhi, Punit; Knobloch, Edgar; Meron, Ehud

    2018-03-01

    Many ecosystems show both self-organized spatial patterns and multistability of possible states. The combination of these two phenomena in different forms has a significant impact on the behavior of ecosystems in changing environments. One notable case is connected to tristability of two distinct uniform states together with patterned states, which has recently been found in model studies of dryland ecosystems. Using a simple model, we determine the extent of tristability in parameter space, explore its effects on the system dynamics, and consider its implications for state transitions or regime shifts. We analyze the bifurcation structure of model solutions that describe uniform states, periodic patterns, and hybrid states between the former two. We map out the parameter space where these states exist, and note how the different states interact with each other. We further focus on two special implications with ecological significance, breakdown of the snaking range and complex fronts. We find that the organization of the hybrid states within a homoclinic snaking structure breaks down as it meets a Maxwell point where simple fronts are stationary. We also discover a new series of complex fronts between the uniform states, each with its own velocity. We conclude with a brief discussion of the significance of these findings for the dynamics of regime shifts and their potential control.

  9. Puako Ecosystem Model Output Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are valued differently by different users. Managers are challenged to comprehensively address the full...

  10. Soil-based ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghaley, Bhim Bahadur; Porter, John Roy; Sandhu, Harpinder S.

    2014-01-01

    Among the soil-based ecosystem services (ES), nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration have direct influence on the biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gas emissions affecting provision of other ES that support human existence. We reviewed methods to assess the two key ES by identifying...... their strengths and weaknesses and have made suggestions for using appropriate methods for better understanding of the ecosystem functions for the provision of ES. Relevant papers for the review were chosen on the basis of (i) diversity of studies on the two key ES in different ecosystems, (ii) methodologies...... applied and (iii) detailed descriptions of the trial locations in terms of vegetation, soil type, location and climatic information. We concluded that (i) elemental stoichiometrical ratios could be a potential approach to assess the health of ecosystems in terms of provision of the two ES discussed, (ii...

  11. Mineral nutrients in mediterranean ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Day, JA

    1983-06-01

    Full Text Available The notion of ecological convergence has influenced taxonomists and biogeographers since the development of ecology in the mid-nineteenth century. Our initial understanding of the ecosystems of the world resulted from plant geographers...

  12. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Coll, M; Libralato, S; Tutela, S; Palomera, I; Pranovi, F.

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impac...

  13. nitrogen saturation in stream ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Earl, S. R.; Valett, H. M.; Webster, J. R.

    2006-01-01

    The concept of nitrogen (N) saturation has organized the assessment of N loading in terrestrial ecosystems. Here we extend the concept to lotic ecosystems by coupling Michaelis-Menten kinetics and nutrient spiraling. We propose a series of saturation response types, which may be used to characterize the proximity of streams to N saturation. We conducted a series of short-term N releases using a tracer ((NO3)-N-15-N) to measure uptake. Experiments were conducted in streams spanning a gradient ...

  14. Cycling indices for ecosystem models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1979-01-01

    The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

  15. Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Niels Martin; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier

    2017-01-01

    How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they ...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

  16. [Burden and health effects of shift work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitmann, Jörg

    2010-10-01

    In Germany aprox. 15% of all employees have irregular or flexible working hours. Disturbed sleep and/or hypersomnia are direct consequences of shift work and therefore described as shift work disorder. Beyond this, shift work can also be associated with specific pathological disorders. There are individual differences in tolerance to shift work. Optimization of both shift schedules and sleep to "non-physiological" times of the day are measures to counteract the negative effects of shift work. There is still not enough evidence to recommend drugs for routine use in shift workers. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.

  17. Special training of shift personnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, H.D.

    1981-01-01

    The first step of on-the-job training is practical observation phase in an operating Nuclear Plant, where the participants are assigned to shift work. The simulator training for operating personnel, for key personnel and, to some extent, also for maintenance personnel and specialists give the practical feeling for Nuclear Power Plant behaviour during normal and abnormal conditions. During the commissioning phase of the own Nuclear Power Plant, which is the most important practical training, the participants are integrated into the commissioning staff and assisted during their process of practical learning by special instructors. The preparation for the licensing exams is vitally important for shift personnel and special courses are provided after the first non-nuclear trial operation of the plant. Personnel training also includes performance of programmes and material for retraining, training of instructors and assistance in building up special training programmes and material as well as training centers. (orig./RW)

  18. Shift work as an oxidative stressor

    OpenAIRE

    Pasalar Parvin; Farahani Saeed; Sharifian Akbar; Gharavi Marjan; Aminian Omid

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Background Some medical disorders have higher prevalence in shift workers than others. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of night-shift-working on total plasma antioxidant capacity, with respect to the causative role of oxidative stress in induction of some of these disorders. Methods Two blood samples were taken from 44 workers with a rotational shift schedule, one after their day shift and one after their night shift. The total plasma antioxidant capacity of each worke...

  19. Ecological shift and resilience in China's lake systems during the last two centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke; Dong, Xuhui; Yang, Xiangdong; Kattel, Giri; Zhao, Yanjie; Wang, Rong

    2018-06-01

    The worldwide decline of wetland ecosystems calls for an urgent reassessment of their current status from a resilience perspective. Understanding the trajectories of changes that have produced the current situation is fundamental for assessing system resilience. Here, we examine long-term dynamics of wetland ecosystem change by reviewing paleoecological records from 11 representative lakes in China. We identify unprecedented change in alga communities in the context of last two centuries. Striking ecological shifts have occurred in all lakes, yet with spatial and temporal differences. The long-term trajectories of change in diatom species composition and structure indicate gradually eroded system resilience. These ecological shifts were shaped by socio-economic activities as China transformed from a rural agricultural to an industrialized society within the last several decades, during which multiple drivers have accumulated and acted synergistically. The balance between ecosystem and society, which appeared to exist for thousands of years, was broken by increasing population, new technology, and urbanization since the 1980s. The consequences are the emergence of new positive feedbacks with the potential to drive the coupled systems into undesirable states. By linking long-term social and ecological change at a regional scale, our study provides a novel contribution to the understanding of lake ecosystems resilience in present-day China. We argue that sustaining wetland ecosystems requires integrated approaches that incorporate a deeper understanding of social-ecological dynamics over decadal-centennial timescales to address the complex underlying mechanisms leading to the current degradation.

  20. Perihelium shifts in central potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amorim, A.E.A.; Ferreira, P.L.

    1987-01-01

    Motivated by the rigorous results on level ordering for arbitrary central potentials recently derived in the literature a classical treatment of the perihelium shifts is presented, based on the consideration of those orbits which lie in the vicinity of a circular orbit. The role played by the Laplacian of the potential is emphasized. By the same approach Bertrand's theorem is also discussed, in connection with Arnold's proof. (Author) [pt

  1. Multicolor Holography With Phase Shifting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vikram, Chandra S.

    1996-01-01

    Prototype apparatus constructed to test feasibility of two-color holographic interferometric scheme in which data for reconstructing holographic wavefront obtained with help of phase-shifting technique. Provides two sets of data needed to solve equations for effects of temperature and concentration. Concept extended to holography at three or more wavelengths to measure three or more phenomena associated with significant variations in index of refraction

  2. Comparing pristine and depleted ecosystems: The Sørfjord, Norway versus the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. Effects of intense fisheries on marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morissette, Lyne; Pedersen, Torstein; Nilsen, Marianne

    2009-04-01

    The Sørfjord, Norway, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, are two sub-arctic ecosystems with similar trophic structure. However, in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, severe exploitation of groundfish stocks has lead to important shifts in the trophic structure. In the Sørfjord, the situation is different: fishing pressure is much lighter. Our hypothesis is that overexploitation leads to changes in the trophic structure and severely alters the resilience of ecosystems. Based on the same modelling approach ( Ecopath with Ecosim) the food web structure was compared, using different ecosystem indicators. Patterns of food web structure and trophodynamics were contrasted. Cod was the keystone species in both ecosystems, and forage fish were also important. Even after similar environmental changes in both ecosystems, and after a reduction of fishing pressure in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, there is no recovery of cod stocks in this ecosystem. In the Sørfjord, after different perturbations (but not from the fishery), the ecosystem seems to return to its equilibrium.

  3. Shift Work and Endocrine Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Ulhôa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this review was to investigate the impact of shift and night work on metabolic processes and the role of alterations in the sleep-wake cycle and feeding times and environmental changes in the occurrence of metabolic disorders. The literature review was performed by searching three electronic databases for relevant studies published in the last 10 years. The methodological quality of each study was assessed, and best-evidence synthesis was applied to draw conclusions. The literature has shown changes in concentrations of melatonin, cortisol, ghrelin, and leptin among shift workers. Melatonin has been implicated for its role in the synthesis and action of insulin. The action of this hormone also regulates the expression of transporter glucose type 4 or triggers phosphorylation of the insulin receptor. Therefore, a reduction in melatonin can be associated with an increase in insulin resistance and a propensity for the development of diabetes. Moreover, shift work can negatively affect sleep and contribute to sedentarism, unhealthy eating habits, and stress. Recent studies on metabolic processes have increasingly revealed their complexity. Physiological changes induced in workers who invert their activity-rest cycle to fulfill work hours include disruptions in metabolic processes.

  4. PSYCHE Pure Shift NMR Spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foroozandeh, Mohammadali; Morris, Gareth; Nilsson, Mathias

    2018-03-13

    Broadband homodecoupling techniques in NMR, also known as "pure shift" methods, aim to enhance spectral resolution by suppressing the effects of homonuclear coupling interactions to turn multiplet signals into singlets. Such techniques typically work by selecting a subset of "active" nuclear spins to observe, and selectively inverting the remaining, "passive", spins to reverse the effects of coupling. Pure Shift Yielded by Chirp Excitation (PSYCHE) is one such method; it is relatively recent, but has already been successfully implemented in a range of different NMR experiments. Paradoxically, PSYCHE is one of the trickiest of pure shift NMR techniques to understand but one of the easiest to use. Here we offer some insights into theoretical and practical aspects of the method, and into the effects and importance of the experimental parameters. Some recent improvements that enhance the spectral purity of PSYCHE spectra will be presented, and some experimental frameworks including examples in 1D and 2D NMR spectroscopy, for the implementation of PSYCHE will be introduced. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Evolving Ecosystems in Education: The Nature and Implications of Private Supplementary Tutoring in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, Mark; Kobakhidze, Magda Nutsa

    2015-01-01

    An established literature draws on ecological concepts to analyze interrelationships within education structures and processes, and the impact of shifting balances. Private supplementary tutoring--relatively new in ecosystems of education around the world--is creating significant changes in relationships, particularly as they concern teachers'…

  6. Analyzing the ecosystem carbon dynamics of four European coniferous forests using a biogeochemistry model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Churkina, G.; Tenhunen, J.; Thornton, P.; Falge, E.; Elbers, J.A.; Erhard, M.; Grünwald, T.; Kowalski, A.; Rannik, Ü.; Sprinz, D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides the first steps toward a regional-scale analysis of carbon (C) budgets. We explore the ability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to estimate the daily and annual C dynamics of four European coniferous forests and shifts in these dynamics in response to changing environmental

  7. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem

  8. Positive feedbacks in seagrass ecosystems - implications for success in conservation and restoration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heide, van Tj.; Nes, van E.H.; Geerling, G.W.; Smolders, A.J.P.; Bouma, T.J.; Katwijk, van M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Seagrasses are threatened by human activity in many locations around the world. Their decline is often characterized by sudden ecosystem collapse from a vegetated to a bare state. In the 1930s, such a dramatic event happened in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Before the shift, large seagrass beds (Zostera

  9. Positive feedbacks in seagrass ecosystems : Implications for success in conservation and restoration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Heide, T.; van Nes, E.H.; Geerling, G.W.; Smolders, A.J.P.; Bouma, T.J.; van Katwijk, M.

    2007-01-01

    Seagrasses are threatened by human activity in many locations around the world. Their decline is often characterized by sudden ecosystem collapse from a vegetated to a bare state. In the 1930s, such a dramatic event happened in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Before the shift, large seagrass beds (Zostera

  10. Beyond urban legends: an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward T.A. Pickett; Mary L. Cadenasso; J. Morgan Grove; Peter M. Groffman; Lawrence E. Band; Christopher G. Boone; William R., Jr. Burch; Susan B. Grimmond; John Hom; Jennifer C. Jenkins; Neely L. Law; Charles H. Nilon; Richard V. Pouyat; Katalin Szlavecz; Paige S. Warren; Matthew A. Wilson

    2008-01-01

    The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions...

  11. An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska

    2015-01-01

    Widespread coral reef decline, including decline in reef fish populations upon which many coastal human populations depend, have led to phase-shifts from the coral-dominated systems, found desirable by humans, to algal-dominated systems that provide less ecosystem services, and the loss of

  12. Navigating complexity through knowledge coproduction: Mainstreaming ecosystem services into disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyers, Belinda; Nel, Jeanne L; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Sitas, Nadia; Nel, Deon C

    2015-06-16

    Achieving the policy and practice shifts needed to secure ecosystem services is hampered by the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their management. Methods for the participatory production and exchange of knowledge offer an avenue to navigate this complexity together with the beneficiaries and managers of ecosystem services. We develop and apply a knowledge coproduction approach based on social-ecological systems research and assess its utility in generating shared knowledge and action for ecosystem services. The approach was piloted in South Africa across four case studies aimed at reducing the risk of disasters associated with floods, wildfires, storm waves, and droughts. Different configurations of stakeholders (knowledge brokers, assessment teams, implementers, and bridging agents) were involved in collaboratively designing each study, generating and exchanging knowledge, and planning for implementation. The approach proved useful in the development of shared knowledge on the sizable contribution of ecosystem services to disaster risk reduction. This knowledge was used by stakeholders to design and implement several actions to enhance ecosystem services, including new investments in ecosystem restoration, institutional changes in the private and public sector, and innovative partnerships of science, practice, and policy. By bringing together multiple disciplines, sectors, and stakeholders to jointly produce the knowledge needed to understand and manage a complex system, knowledge coproduction approaches offer an effective avenue for the improved integration of ecosystem services into decision making.

  13. “Coral Dominance”: A Dangerous Ecosystem Misnomer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S. Vroom

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Over 100 years ago, before threats such as global climate change and ocean acidification were issues engrossing marine scientists, numerous tropical reef biologists began expressing concern that too much emphasis was being placed on coral dominance in reef systems. These researchers believed that the scientific community was beginning to lose sight of the overall mix of calcifying organisms necessary for the healthy function of reef ecosystems and demonstrated that some reefs were naturally coral dominated with corals being the main organisms responsible for reef accretion, yet other healthy reef ecosystems were found to rely almost entirely on calcified algae and foraminifera for calcium carbonate accumulation. Despite these historical cautionary messages, many agencies today have inherited a coral-centric approach to reef management, likely to the detriment of reef ecosystems worldwide. For example, recent research has shown that crustose coralline algae, a group of plants essential for building and cementing reef systems, are in greater danger of exhibiting decreased calcification rates and increased solubility than corals in warmer and more acidic ocean environments. A shift from coral-centric views to broader ecosystem views is imperative in order to protect endangered reef systems worldwide.

  14. Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.

    2017-01-01

    Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

  15. Defining Ecosystem Assets for Natural Capital Accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Ken; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems' capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.

  16. Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, M.

    2013-12-01

    Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in coming decades in all parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resource development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of co-evolution of the coupled human-water system, to serve as the theoretical framework for more detailed analysis of

  17. Origin of Pareto-like spatial distributions in ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manor, Alon; Shnerb, Nadav M

    2008-12-31

    Recent studies of cluster distribution in various ecosystems revealed Pareto statistics for the size of spatial colonies. These results were supported by cellular automata simulations that yield robust criticality for endogenous pattern formation based on positive feedback. We show that this patch statistics is a manifestation of the law of proportionate effect. Mapping the stochastic model to a Markov birth-death process, the transition rates are shown to scale linearly with cluster size. This mapping provides a connection between patch statistics and the dynamics of the ecosystem; the "first passage time" for different colonies emerges as a powerful tool that discriminates between endogenous and exogenous clustering mechanisms. Imminent catastrophic shifts (such as desertification) manifest themselves in a drastic change of the stability properties of spatial colonies.

  18. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Cregger, Melissa [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [ORNL; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

  19. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

  20. Developing spatial biophysical accounting for multiple ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.; Schroter, M.; Hein, L.G.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is receiving increasing interest as a way to systematically monitor the conditions of ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. A critical element of ecosystem accounting is understanding spatially explicit flows of ecosystem services. We developed spatial biophysical

  1. Accumulation of carbon in northern mire ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolonen, K.; Turunen, J.; Alm, J. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology; Korhola, A. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Physical Geography; Jungner, H. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dating Lab.; Vasander, H. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    The basic feature in the functional ecology of any mire ecosystem is retardation of the effective decay of organic material resulting in a conspicuous accumulation of plant debris as peat overtime. The carbon accumulation process is slow, and climatic change may have an impact on the carbon cycle of peatlands, therefore, it has been of interest to study the rate of carbon accumulation by geological methods from dated peat strata. The approach is hampered by several facts. First, the mires vary enormously as to their vegetation and hydrology and hence their production and decay properties. It follows that a great number of study sites are needed. Second, the peat in mires expands both vertically and laterally, and this requires a spatial reconstruction of carbon accumulation within a mire basin. Third, simple geological methods cannot account for the actual rate of carbon accumulation in peat, and finally, an additional carbon sink in the mire ecosystems can be the mineral subsoil beneath peat. The proposed warming will perhaps shift northwards the existing climatic mire regimes and, thus, the northern aapa fens will change to Sphagnum bogs that are more effective in sequestering carbon, but distinctly less effective in their CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O emanation. The role of mire fires in more remote northern areas may then become another important factor. The answer to the important question of future total sequestration of carbon to peatlands depends on the precipitation and its seasonal distribution pattern. Most climatic scenarios predict a decrease in the evaporation surplus during the summer at northern regions. Presumably, the consequent lowering of the water table would improve growth of forest on mires and simultaneously decrease the methane fluxes from peat. The combined net effect could be a clear restraining of the radiative forcing

  2. Accumulation of carbon in northern mire ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolonen, K; Turunen, J; Alm, J [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology; Korhola, A [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Physical Geography; Jungner, H [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dating Lab.; Vasander, H [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1997-12-31

    The basic feature in the functional ecology of any mire ecosystem is retardation of the effective decay of organic material resulting in a conspicuous accumulation of plant debris as peat overtime. The carbon accumulation process is slow, and climatic change may have an impact on the carbon cycle of peatlands, therefore, it has been of interest to study the rate of carbon accumulation by geological methods from dated peat strata. The approach is hampered by several facts. First, the mires vary enormously as to their vegetation and hydrology and hence their production and decay properties. It follows that a great number of study sites are needed. Second, the peat in mires expands both vertically and laterally, and this requires a spatial reconstruction of carbon accumulation within a mire basin. Third, simple geological methods cannot account for the actual rate of carbon accumulation in peat, and finally, an additional carbon sink in the mire ecosystems can be the mineral subsoil beneath peat. The proposed warming will perhaps shift northwards the existing climatic mire regimes and, thus, the northern aapa fens will change to Sphagnum bogs that are more effective in sequestering carbon, but distinctly less effective in their CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O emanation. The role of mire fires in more remote northern areas may then become another important factor. The answer to the important question of future total sequestration of carbon to peatlands depends on the precipitation and its seasonal distribution pattern. Most climatic scenarios predict a decrease in the evaporation surplus during the summer at northern regions. Presumably, the consequent lowering of the water table would improve growth of forest on mires and simultaneously decrease the methane fluxes from peat. The combined net effect could be a clear restraining of the radiative forcing

  3. Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueter, Franz J.; Broms, Cecilie; Drinkwater, Kenneth F.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hunt, George L., Jr.; Melle, Webjørn; Taylor, Maureen

    2009-04-01

    As part of the international MENU collaboration, we compared and contrasted ecosystem responses to climate-forced oceanographic variability across several high latitude regions of the North Pacific (Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA)) and North Atlantic Oceans (Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank (GOM/GB) and the Norwegian/Barents Seas (NOR/BAR)). Differences in the nitrate content of deep source waters and incoming solar radiation largely explain differences in average primary productivity among these ecosystems. We compared trends in productivity and abundance at various trophic levels and their relationships with sea-surface temperature. Annual net primary production generally increases with annual mean sea-surface temperature between systems and within the EBS, BAR, and GOM/GB. Zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled by both top-down (predation by fish) and bottom-up forcing (advection, SST) in the BAR and NOR regions. In contrast, zooplankton in the GOM/GB region showed no evidence of top-down forcing but appeared to control production of major fish populations through bottom-up processes that are independent of temperature variability. Recruitment of several fish stocks is significantly and positively correlated with temperature in the EBS and BAR, but cod and pollock recruitment in the EBS has been negatively correlated with temperature since the 1977 shift to generally warmer conditions. In each of the ecosystems, fish species showed a general poleward movement in response to warming. In addition, the distribution of groundfish in the EBS has shown a more complex, non-linear response to warming resulting from internal community dynamics. Responses to recent warming differ across systems and appear to be more direct and more pronounced in the higher latitude systems where food webs and trophic interactions are simpler and where both zooplankton and fish species are often limited by cold temperatures.

  4. Unintended cultivation, shifting baselines, and conflict between objectives for fisheries and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Christopher J; Trebilco, Rowan

    2014-06-01

    The effects of fisheries on marine ecosystems, and their capacity to drive shifts in ecosystem states, have been widely documented. Less well appreciated is that some commercially valuable species respond positively to fishing-induced ecosystem change and can become important fisheries resources in modified ecosystems. Thus, the ecological effects of one fishery can unintentionally increase the abundance and productivity of other fished species (i.e., cultivate). We reviewed examples of this effect in the peer-reviewed literature. We found 2 underlying ecosystem drivers of the effect: trophic release of prey species when predators are overfished and habitat change. Key ecological, social, and economic conditions required for one fishery to unintentionally cultivate another include strong top-down control of prey by predators, the value of the new fishery, and the capacity of fishers to adapt to a new fishery. These unintended cultivation effects imply strong trade-offs between short-term fishery success and conservation efforts to restore ecosystems toward baseline conditions because goals for fisheries and conservation may be incompatible. Conflicts are likely to be exacerbated if fisheries baselines shift relative to conservation baselines and there is investment in the new fishery. However, in the long-term, restoration toward ecosystem baselines may often benefit both fishery and conservation goals. Unintended cultivation can be identified and predicted using a combination of time-series data, dietary studies, models of food webs, and socioeconomic data. Identifying unintended cultivation is necessary for management to set compatible goals for fisheries and conservation. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Progress and challenges in the development of ecosystem accounting as a tool to analyse ecosystem capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, Lars; Obst, Carl; Edens, Bram; Remme, R.P.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting has been developed as a systematic approach to incorporate measures of ecosystem services and ecosystem assets into an accounting structure. Ecosystem accounting involves spatially explicit modelling of ecosystem services and assets, in both physical and monetary terms. A

  7. Visual attention shifting in autism spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Annette E; Lajiness-O'Neill, Renee

    2015-01-01

    Abnormal visual attention has been frequently observed in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Abnormal shifting of visual attention is related to abnormal development of social cognition and has been identified as a key neuropsychological finding in ASD. Better characterizing attention shifting in ASD and its relationship with social functioning may help to identify new targets for intervention and improving social communication in these disorders. Thus, the current study investigated deficits in attention shifting in ASD as well as relationships between attention shifting and social communication in ASD and neurotypicals (NT). To investigate deficits in visual attention shifting in ASD, 20 ASD and 20 age- and gender-matched NT completed visual search (VS) and Navon tasks with attention-shifting demands as well as a set-shifting task. VS was a feature search task with targets defined in one of two dimensions; Navon required identification of a target letter presented at the global or local level. Psychomotor and processing speed were entered as covariates. Relationships between visual attention shifting, set shifting, and social functioning were also examined. ASD and NT showed comparable costs of shifting attention. However, psychomotor and processing speed were slower in ASD than in NT, and psychomotor and processing speed were positively correlated with attention-shifting costs on Navon and VS, respectively, for both groups. Attention shifting on VS and Navon were correlated among NT, while attention shifting on Navon was correlated with set shifting among ASD. Attention-shifting costs on Navon were positively correlated with restricted and repetitive behaviors among ASD. Relationships between attention shifting and psychomotor and processing speed, as well as relationships between measures of different aspects of visual attention shifting, suggest inefficient top-down influences over preattentive visual processing in ASD. Inefficient attention shifting may be

  8. "Pleistocene Park" - A Glacial Ecosystem in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A.

    2011-12-01

    Most people if asked what association they have to the phrase - ice age, will answer - "Mammoth". But mammoths are not only big wooly elephants which went extinct in the beginning of Holocene. They were also part of a great ecosystem, the Northern Steppe or Mammoth Ecosystem, which was the world's largest ecosystem for hundreds thousand of years. This ecosystem, with extremely high rates of biocycling, could maintain animal densities which can be hardly found anywhere in the modern world. Northern steppe played an important role in shaping the glacial climate of the planet. High albedo grasslands reflected a much bigger portion of sun heat back to the atmosphere. Cold soils and permafrost served as sinks of carbon, helping to keep greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at low levels. In the beginning of Holocene, simultaneously with wave of human expansion, an extinction wave took place. Tens of megafauna species became extinct at that time worldwide, while ones that resisted the extinction substantially dropped in numbers. The Northern Steppe ecosystem became imbalanced. Without large numbers of herbivores grazing and trampling the pasture, trees, shrubs and moss invaded grasslands. Within just a few hundreds years the mammoth ecosystem was gone, replaced by much lower productivity ecosystems. Already 14 thousand year ago, by simply increasing hunting pressure, humans managed to dramatically change Earth's appearance. We propose that by artificially maintaining a high animal density and diversity on a limited territory for extended period of time, it will be possible to reverse the shift, reestablishing the productive Northern Steppe ecosystem. Moss, shrubs and tree sprouts are not able to resist grazing pressure so they will be quickly replaced by grasses and herbs. Animals digesting all aboveground biomass would accelerate nutrition cycling and consequently increase bioproductivity. Higher bioproductivity would increase evapotranspiration, keeping soils

  9. Parallel ecological networks in ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olff, Han; Alonso, David; Berg, Matty P.; Eriksson, B. Klemens; Loreau, Michel; Piersma, Theunis; Rooney, Neil

    2009-01-01

    In ecosystems, species interact with other species directly and through abiotic factors in multiple ways, often forming complex networks of various types of ecological interaction. Out of this suite of interactions, predator–prey interactions have received most attention. The resulting food webs, however, will always operate simultaneously with networks based on other types of ecological interaction, such as through the activities of ecosystem engineers or mutualistic interactions. Little is known about how to classify, organize and quantify these other ecological networks and their mutual interplay. The aim of this paper is to provide new and testable ideas on how to understand and model ecosystems in which many different types of ecological interaction operate simultaneously. We approach this problem by first identifying six main types of interaction that operate within ecosystems, of which food web interactions are one. Then, we propose that food webs are structured among two main axes of organization: a vertical (classic) axis representing trophic position and a new horizontal ‘ecological stoichiometry’ axis representing decreasing palatability of plant parts and detritus for herbivores and detrivores and slower turnover times. The usefulness of these new ideas is then explored with three very different ecosystems as test cases: temperate intertidal mudflats; temperate short grass prairie; and tropical savannah. PMID:19451126

  10. Ecosystem services provided by waterbirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Andy J; Elmberg, Johan

    2014-02-01

    Ecosystem services are ecosystem processes that directly or indirectly benefit human well-being. There has been much recent literature identifying different services and the communities and species that provide them. This is a vital first step towards management and maintenance of these services. In this review, we specifically address the waterbirds, which play key functional roles in many aquatic ecosystems, including as predators, herbivores and vectors of seeds, invertebrates and nutrients, although these roles have often been overlooked. Waterbirds can maintain the diversity of other organisms, control pests, be effective bioindicators of ecological conditions, and act as sentinels of potential disease outbreaks. They also provide important provisioning (meat, feathers, eggs, etc.) and cultural services to both indigenous and westernized societies. We identify key gaps in the understanding of ecosystem services provided by waterbirds and areas for future research required to clarify their functional role in ecosystems and the services they provide. We consider how the economic value of these services could be calculated, giving some examples. Such valuation will provide powerful arguments for waterbird conservation. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  11. Belowground dynamics in mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangrove ecosystems are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal communities are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services (fig. 1). Mangrove wetlands are important filters of materials moving between the land and sea, trapping sediment, nutrients, and pollutants in runoff from uplands and preventing their direct introduction into sensitive marine ecosystems such as seagrass beds and coral reefs. Mangroves serve as nursery grounds and refuge for a variety of organisms and are consequently vital to the biological productivity of coastal waters. Furthermore, because mangroves are highly resilient to disturbances such as hurricanes, they represent a self-sustaining, protective barrier for human populations living in the coastal zone. Mangrove ecosystems also contribute to shoreline stabilization through consolidation of unstable mineral sediments and peat formation. In order to help conserve mangrove ecoystems, scientists with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand the dynamics that impact these vital ecosystems.

  12. Seagrass sediments reveal the long-term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem

    KAUST Repository

    Serrano, Oscar

    2016-01-28

    © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time-course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass-dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments <0.125 mm and stable carbon isotope signatures (δ13C) of the organic matter were detected between 1850s and 1920s, whereas the shift detected in P concentration occurred several decades later (1960s). The first degradation phase (1850s-1950s) follows the onset of European settlement in Australia and was characterized by a strong increase in sediment accumulation rates and fine-grained particles, driven primarily by enhanced run-off due to land clearance and agriculture in the catchment. About 80% of total seagrass area at Oyster Harbour was lost during the second phase of environmental degradation (1960s until present). The sharp increase in P concentration and the increasing contribution of algae and terrestrial inputs into the sedimentary organic matter pool around 1960s provides compelling evidence of the documented eutrophication of the estuary and the subsequent loss of seagrass meadows. The results presented demonstrate the power of seagrass sedimentary archives to reconstruct the trajectories of anthropogenic pressures on estuarine ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems.

  13. Seagrass sediments reveal the long-term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem

    KAUST Repository

    Serrano, Oscar; Lavery, Paul; Masque, Pere; Inostroza, Karina; Bongiovanni, James; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time-course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass-dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments <0.125 mm and stable carbon isotope signatures (δ13C) of the organic matter were detected between 1850s and 1920s, whereas the shift detected in P concentration occurred several decades later (1960s). The first degradation phase (1850s-1950s) follows the onset of European settlement in Australia and was characterized by a strong increase in sediment accumulation rates and fine-grained particles, driven primarily by enhanced run-off due to land clearance and agriculture in the catchment. About 80% of total seagrass area at Oyster Harbour was lost during the second phase of environmental degradation (1960s until present). The sharp increase in P concentration and the increasing contribution of algae and terrestrial inputs into the sedimentary organic matter pool around 1960s provides compelling evidence of the documented eutrophication of the estuary and the subsequent loss of seagrass meadows. The results presented demonstrate the power of seagrass sedimentary archives to reconstruct the trajectories of anthropogenic pressures on estuarine ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems.

  14. Accommodating state shifts within the conceptual framework of the wetland continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushet, David M.; McKenna, Owen; LaBaugh, James W.; Euliss, Ned H.; Rosenberry, Donald O.

    2018-01-01

    The Wetland Continuum is a conceptual framework that facilitates the interpretation of biological studies of wetland ecosystems. Recently summarized evidence documenting how a multi-decadal wet period has influenced aspects of wetland, lake and stream systems in the southern prairie-pothole region of North America has revealed the potential for wetlands to shift among alternate states. We propose that incorporation of state shifts into the Wetland Continuum, as originally proposed or as modified by Hayashi et al., is a relatively simple matter if one allows for shifts of wetlands along the horizontal, groundwater axis of the framework under conditions of extreme and sustained wet or dry conditions. We suggest that the ease by which state shifts can be accommodated within both the original and modified frameworks of the Wetland Continuum is a testament to the robustness of the concept when it is related to the alternative-stable-state concept.

  15. Defining Ecosystem Assets for Natural Capital Accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Ken; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems’ capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks. PMID:27828969

  16. Defining ecosystem assets for natural capital accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems’ capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.

  17. The carbon balance pivot point of southwestern U.S. semiarid ecosystems: Insights from the 21st century drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Russell L.; Biederman, Joel A.; Hamerlynck, Erik P.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.

    2015-12-01

    Global-scale studies indicate that semiarid regions strongly regulate the terrestrial carbon sink. However, we lack understanding of how climatic shifts, such as decadal drought, impact carbon sequestration across the wide range of structural diversity in semiarid ecosystems. Therefore, we used eddy covariance measurements to quantify how net ecosystem production of carbon dioxide (NEP) differed with relative grass and woody plant abundance over the last decade of drought in four Southwest U.S. ecosystems. We identified a precipitation "pivot point" in the carbon balance for each ecosystem where annual NEP switched from negative to positive. Ecosystems with grass had pivot points closer to the drought period precipitation than the predrought average, making them more likely to be carbon sinks (and a grass-free shrubland, a carbon source) during the current drought. One reason for this is that the grassland located closest to the shrubland supported higher leaf area and photosynthesis at the same water availability. Higher leaf area was associated with a greater proportion of evapotranspiration being transpiration (T/ET), and therefore with higher ecosystem water use efficiency (gross ecosystem photosynthesis/ET). Our findings strongly show that water availability is a primary driver of both gross and net semiarid productivity and illustrate that structural differences may contribute to the speed at which ecosystem carbon cycling adjusts to climatic shifts.

  18. Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

    2017-04-01

    Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. How the origin of organic compounds affects vegetation patchiness and regime shifts in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, S.C.; Nierop, K.G.J.; Mao, J.

    2012-01-01

    Soil water repellency (SWR) is a common property of soils and has been reported from all inhabited continents. It can have negative consequences for plant growth due to stagnation of water infiltration. Recently, the understanding of SWR has increased, mainly for the soil physical mechanisms.

  20. Regime shifts and weakened environmental gradients in open oak and pine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brice B. Hanberry; Dan C. Dey; Hong S. He

    2012-01-01

    Fire suppression allows tree species that are intolerant of fire stress to increase their distribution, potentially resulting in disruption of historical species-environmental relationships. To measure changes between historical General Land Office surveys (1815 to 1850) and current USDA Forest Inventory and Assessment surveys (2004 to 2008), we compared composition,...

  1. The shift to Cloud Computing : The impact of disruptive technology on the enterprise software business ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuis, Lambert J.M.; Ehrenhard, Michel L.; Prause, Lars

    2017-01-01

    The rapid diffusion of Cloud Computing influences the way enterprise software is developed, distributed, and implemented. This uptake of Cloud Computing has profound implications for the IT industry and related industries, as it does not only affect the vendors' business models but also the other

  2. Bundling ecosystem services in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turner, Katrine Grace; Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith

    2014-01-01

    We made a spatial analysis of 11 ecosystem services at a 10 km × 10 km grid scale covering most of Denmark. Our objective was to describe their spatial distribution and interactions and also to analyze whether they formed specific bundle types on a regional scale in the Danish cultural landscape....... We found clustered distribution patterns of ecosystem services across the country. There was a significant tendency for trade-offs between on the one hand cultural and regulating services and on the other provisioning services, and we also found the potential of regulating and cultural services...... to form synergies. We identified six distinct ecosystem service bundle types, indicating multiple interactions at a landscape level. The bundle types showed specialized areas of agricultural production, high provision of cultural services at the coasts, multifunctional mixed-use bundle types around urban...

  3. Valuation of rangeland ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascoigne, W.R.

    2011-01-01

    Economic valuation lends itself well to the anthropocentric orientation of ecosystem services. An economic perspective on ecosystems portrays them as natural assets providing a flow of goods and services valuable to individuals and society collectively. A few examples include the purification of drinking water, reduced risk from flooding and other extreme events, pollination of agricultural crops, climate regulation, and recreation opportunities from plant and animal habitat maintenance, among many others. Once these goods and services are identified and quantified, they can be monetized to complete the valuation process. The monetization of ecosystem goods and services (in the form of dollars) provides a common metric that allows for cross-comparison of attributes and evaluation of differing ecological scenarios. Complicating the monetization process is the fact that most of these goods and services are public and non-market in nature; meaning they are non-rival and non-exclusive and are typically not sold in a traditional market setting where monetary values are revealed. Instead, one must employ non-market valuation techniques, with primary valuation methods typically being very time and resource consuming, intimidating to non-economists, and often impractical. For these reasons, benefit transfer methods have gained popularity. This methodology harnesses the primary collection results of existing studies to make inferences about the economic values of non-market goods and services at an alternative policy site (in place and/or in time). For instance, if a primary valuation study on oak reestablishment on rangelands in southern California yielded a value of $30 per-acre associated with water regulation, this result can be transferred, with some adjustments, to say something about the value of an acre of oaks on rangelands in northern portions of the state. The economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services has many roles. Economic values may be used as input

  4. Simultaneous shifts in elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids of Emiliania huxleyi in response to environmental changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate-driven changes in environmental conditions have significant and complex effects on marine ecosystems. Variability in phytoplankton elements and biochemicals can be important for global ocean biogeochemistry and ecological functions, while there is currently limited understanding on how elements and biochemicals respond to the changing environments in key coccolithophore species such as Emiliania huxleyi. We investigated responses of elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids (FAs in a strain of E. huxleyi under three temperatures (12, 18 and 24 °C, three N : P supply ratios (molar ratios 10:1, 24:1 and 63:1 and two pCO2 levels (560 and 2400 µatm. Overall, C : N : P stoichiometry showed the most pronounced response to N : P supply ratios, with high ratios of particulate organic carbon vs. particulate organic nitrogen (POC : PON and low ratios of PON vs. particulate organic phosphorus (PON : POP in low-N media, and high POC : POP and PON : POP in low-P media. The ratio of particulate inorganic carbon vs. POC (PIC : POC and polyunsaturated fatty acid proportions strongly responded to temperature and pCO2, both being lower under high pCO2 and higher with warming. We observed synergistic interactions between warming and nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2 on elemental cellular contents and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA proportion in most cases, indicating the enhanced effect of warming under nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2. Our results suggest differential sensitivity of elements and FAs to the changes in temperature, nutrient availability and pCO2 in E. huxleyi, which is to some extent unique compared to non-calcifying algal classes. Thus, simultaneous changes of elements and FAs should be considered when predicting future roles of E. huxleyi in the biotic-mediated connection between biogeochemical cycles, ecological functions and climate change.

  5. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

    2015-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus

  6. Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandasamy, Narayanan; Hardy, Ben; Page, Lionel; Schaffner, Markus; Graggaber, Johann; Powlson, Andrew S; Fletcher, Paul C; Gurnell, Mark; Coates, John

    2014-03-04

    Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over 8 d to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking and found that participants became more risk-averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an underappreciated cause of market instability.

  7. Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandasamy, Narayanan; Hardy, Ben; Page, Lionel; Schaffner, Markus; Graggaber, Johann; Powlson, Andrew S.; Fletcher, Paul C.; Gurnell, Mark; Coates, John

    2014-01-01

    Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over 8 d to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking and found that participants became more risk-averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an underappreciated cause of market instability. PMID:24550472

  8. Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. Wang; P. Ciais; S.L. Piao; C. Ottle; P. Brender; F. Maignan; A. Arain; A. Cescatti; D. Gianelle; C. Gough; L Gu; P. Lafleur; T. Laurila; B. Marcolla; H. Margolis; L. Montagnani; E. Moors; N. Saigusa; T. Vesala; G. Wohlfahrt; C. Koven; A. Black; E. Dellwik; A. Don; D. Hollinger; A. Knohl; R. Monson; J. Munger; A. Suyker; A. Varlagin; S. Verma

    2011-01-01

    Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal...

  9. Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnosky, Anthony D; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Gonzalez, Patrick; Head, Jason; Polly, P David; Lawing, A Michelle; Eronen, Jussi T; Ackerly, David D; Alex, Ken; Biber, Eric; Blois, Jessica; Brashares, Justin; Ceballos, Gerardo; Davis, Edward; Dietl, Gregory P; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Doremus, Holly; Fortelius, Mikael; Greene, Harry W; Hellmann, Jessica; Hickler, Thomas; Jackson, Stephen T; Kemp, Melissa; Koch, Paul L; Kremen, Claire; Lindsey, Emily L; Looy, Cindy; Marshall, Charles R; Mendenhall, Chase; Mulch, Andreas; Mychajliw, Alexis M; Nowak, Carsten; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Schnitzler, Jan; Das Shrestha, Kashish; Solari, Katherine; Stegner, Lynn; Stegner, M Allison; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Wake, Marvalee H; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-02-10

    Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. Mapping monetary values of ecosystem services in support of developing ecosystem accounts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars; Edens, Bram; Suwarno, Aritta

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting has been proposed as a comprehensive, innovative approach to natural capital accounting, and basically involves the biophysical and monetary analysis of ecosystem services in a national accounting framework. Characteristic for ecosystem accounting is the spatial approach

  11. Software ecosystems – a systematic literature review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos; Hansen, Klaus Marius

    2013-01-01

    A software ecosystem is the interaction of a set of actors on top of a common technological platform that results in a number of software solutions or services. Arguably, software ecosystems are gaining importance with the advent of, e.g., the Google Android, Apache, and Salesforce.com ecosystems....... However, there exists no systematic overview of the research done on software ecosystems from a software engineering perspective. We performed a systematic literature review of software ecosystem research, analyzing 90 papers on the subject taken from a gross collection of 420. Our main conclusions...... are that while research on software ecosystems is increasing (a) there is little consensus on what constitutes a software ecosystem, (b) few analytical models of software ecosystems exist, and (c) little research is done in the context of real-world ecosystems. This work provides an overview of the field, while...

  12. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Seeing the forest and the trees - A cross-scale assessment of wildfire and carbon dynamics in fire-prone, forested ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel A. Loehman; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Karin L. Riley

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires are an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and one of the main pathways for movement of carbon from the land surface to the atmosphere. Fires have received much attention in recent years as potential catalysts for shifting landscapes from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Unless structural or functional ecosystem shifts occur, net carbon balance...

  13. Vegetation - Herbivory Dynamics in Rangeland Ecosystems: Geospatial Modeling for Savanna and Wildlife Conservation in California and Namibia

    OpenAIRE

    Tsalyuk, Miriam

    2014-01-01

    Rangelands cover about half of Earth's land surface, encompass considerable biodiversity, and provide pivotal ecosystem services. However, rangelands across the globe face degradation due to changes in climate, land use, and management. Moreover, since herbivory is fundamental to rangeland ecosystem dynamics, shifts in the distribution of herbivores lead to overgrazing and desertification. To better understand, predict, and prevent changes on rangelands it is important to monitor these landsc...

  14. Comparison of coral reef ecosystems along a fishing pressure gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Three trophic mass-balance models representing coral reef ecosystems along a fishery gradient were compared to evaluate ecosystem effects of fishing. The majority of the biomass estimates came directly from a large-scale visual survey program; therefore, data were collected in the same way for all three models, enhancing comparability. Model outputs-such as net system production, size structure of the community, total throughput, production, consumption, production-to-respiration ratio, and Finn's cycling index and mean path length-indicate that the systems around the unpopulated French Frigate Shoals and along the relatively lightly populated Kona Coast of Hawai'i Island are mature, stable systems with a high efficiency in recycling of biomass. In contrast, model results show that the reef system around the most populated island in the State of Hawai'i, O'ahu, is in a transitional state with reduced ecosystem resilience and appears to be shifting to an algal-dominated system. Evaluation of the candidate indicators for fishing pressure showed that indicators at the community level (e.g., total biomass, community size structure, trophic level of the community were most robust (i.e., showed the clearest trend and that multiple indicators are necessary to identify fishing perturbations. These indicators could be used as performance indicators when compared to a baseline for management purposes. This study shows that ecosystem models can be valuable tools in identification of the system state in terms of complexity, stability, and resilience and, therefore, can complement biological metrics currently used by monitoring programs as indicators for coral reef status. Moreover, ecosystem models can improve our understanding of a system's internal structure that can be used to support management in identification of approaches to reverse unfavorable states.

  15. Whole-ecosystem nitrogen effects research in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.J.

    1993-01-01

    There has been an enormous increase during the past few years in the amount of research being conducted in Europe on the effects of atmospheric deposition of nitrogen on aquatic, and especially terrestrial, ecosystems. Nitrogen deposition increases the emissions of N 2 O from forest soils and may decrease CH 4 uptake. Both increased N 2 O production and decreased CH 4 consumption would increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Thus there are important linkages between nitrogen deposition (and consequent ecosystem effects) and the release of greenhouse gases that have been implicated in potential global climate change. This paper summarises some of the European research that has been carried out in recent years. The experimental approach has shifted heavily into whole-ecosystem experimental manipulations, which are being conducted across gradients of atmospheric deposition and other environmental factors. Manipulations are focused primarily on coniferous forest ecosystems and involve increasing ambient deposition of sulfur and nitrogen; excluding ambient deposition via the construction of roofs over entire forested plots or catchments; and manipulating climatic factors, especially water availability. Experiments are designed to continue for long periods (i.e., 5-10 years) and are augmented by detailed, process-level studies at the manipulation sites. Results of the broad-scale and detailed studies are being used to build, test, and validate mathematical models that simulate nitrogen processing, nutrient cycling, and water regulation in coniferous forest ecosystems under varying depositional and climatic regimes. Ultimately, these models will be used to predict nitrogen saturation, estimate the critical loads of nitrogen for European forests, and specify emission controls needed to protect European forests and surface waters from the detrimental effects of excess nitrogen deposition. 19 refs., 1 fig., 2 photos

  16. Individual differences in shift work tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers-van der Holst, H.M.

    2016-01-01

    Shift work is a key feature of our contemporary 24/7 society, employing several successive work teams to sustain around-the-clock operations. However, numerous studies imply that frequently shifting the periods of sleep and wakefulness poses a serious threat to the shift worker’s physical, mental

  17. Shifting Cultivation : Promoting Innovative Policy and Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Shifting Cultivation : Promoting Innovative Policy and Development Options in the Eastern Himalayas. Shifting ... pressure and market forces. The idea is to share good policies and practices related to shifting cultivation and alternative options through regional exchange. ... Les chaînes de valeur comme leviers stratégiques.

  18. Variable impact of late-Quaternary megafaunal extinction in causing ecological state shifts in North and South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnosky, Anthony D.; Lindsey, Emily L.; Villavicencio, Natalia A.; Bostelmann, Enrique; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Wanket, James; Marshall, Charles R.

    2016-01-01

    Loss of megafauna, an aspect of defaunation, can precipitate many ecological changes over short time scales. We examine whether megafauna loss can also explain features of lasting ecological state shifts that occurred as the Pleistocene gave way to the Holocene. We compare ecological impacts of late-Quaternary megafauna extinction in five American regions: southwestern Patagonia, the Pampas, northeastern United States, northwestern United States, and Beringia. We find that major ecological state shifts were consistent with expectations of defaunation in North American sites but not in South American ones. The differential responses highlight two factors necessary for defaunation to trigger lasting ecological state shifts discernable in the fossil record: (i) lost megafauna need to have been effective ecosystem engineers, like proboscideans; and (ii) historical contingencies must have provided the ecosystem with plant species likely to respond to megafaunal loss. These findings help in identifying modern ecosystems that are most at risk for disappearing should current pressures on the ecosystems' large animals continue and highlight the critical role of both individual species ecologies and ecosystem context in predicting the lasting impacts of defaunation currently underway.

  19. Tilt shift determinations with spatial-carrier phase-shift method in temporal phase-shift interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Qian; Wang, Yang; He, Jianguo; Ji, Fang; Wang, Baorui

    2014-01-01

    An algorithm is proposed to deal with tilt-shift errors in temporal phase-shift interferometry (PSI). In the algorithm, the tilt shifts are detected with the spatial-carrier phase-shift (SCPS) method and then the tilt shifts are applied as priori information to the least-squares fittings of phase retrieval. The algorithm combines the best features of the SCPS and the temporal PSI. The algorithm could be applied to interferograms of arbitrary aperture without data extrapolation for the Fourier transform is not involved. Simulations and experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. The statistics of simulation results show a satisfied accuracy in detecting tilt-shift errors. Comparisons of the measurements with and without environmental vibration show that the proposed algorithm could compensate tilt-shift errors and retrieve wavefront phase accurately. The algorithm provides an approach to retrieve wavefront phase for the temporal PSI in vibrating environment. (paper)

  20. Dry-season retreat and dietary shift of the dart-poison frog Dendrobates tinctorius (Anura: Dendrobatidae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Born, M.; Bongers, F.; Poelman, E.H.; Sterck, F.J.

    2010-01-01

    Dry-season retreat and dietary shift of the dart-poison frog Delldrobates tillCtOrillS (Anura: Dendrobatidae). Seasonal rainfall affects tropical forest dynamics and behavior of species that are part of these ecosystems. TIle positive correlation between amphibian ac tivity pattems and rainfall has

  1. Quantifying the web browser ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdman, Sela; Minkov, Einat; Bekkerman, Ron; Gefen, David

    2017-01-01

    Contrary to the assumption that web browsers are designed to support the user, an examination of a 900,000 distinct PCs shows that web browsers comprise a complex ecosystem with millions of addons collaborating and competing with each other. It is possible for addons to "sneak in" through third party installations or to get "kicked out" by their competitors without user involvement. This study examines that ecosystem quantitatively by constructing a large-scale graph with nodes corresponding to users, addons, and words (terms) that describe addon functionality. Analyzing addon interactions at user level using the Personalized PageRank (PPR) random walk measure shows that the graph demonstrates ecological resilience. Adapting the PPR model to analyzing the browser ecosystem at the level of addon manufacturer, the study shows that some addon companies are in symbiosis and others clash with each other as shown by analyzing the behavior of 18 prominent addon manufacturers. Results may herald insight on how other evolving internet ecosystems may behave, and suggest a methodology for measuring this behavior. Specifically, applying such a methodology could transform the addon market.

  2. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  3. Conditions for entrepreneurial ecosystem development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Radziwon, Agnieszka; Bogers, Marcel; Brem, Alexander

    ecosystems. The key findings discussed in the paper include general organizational requirements and governing structures, the role of leadership and ownership of the initiatives, and suggestions for potential collaborative areas. The paper concludes with suggestions both for potential inter......-firm collaborative areas and for policy makers’ support....

  4. Parallel ecological networks in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olff, Han; Alonso, David; Berg, Matty P.; Eriksson, B. Klemens; Loreau, Michel; Piersma, Theunis; Rooney, Neil

    2009-01-01

    In ecosystems, species interact with other species directly and through abiotic factors in multiple ways, often forming complex networks of various types of ecological interaction. Out of this suite of interactions, predator-prey interactions have received most attention. The resulting food webs,

  5. Biological invasions in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Susan Kalisz; Martin A. Nuñez; David A. Wardle; Michael J. Wingfield

    2017-01-01

    Forests play critical roles in global ecosystem processes and provide numerous services to society. But forests are increasingly affected by a variety of human influences, especially those resulting from biological invasions. Species invading forests include woody and herbaceous plants, many animal species including mammals and invertebrates, as well as a variety of...

  6. Simulating the net ecosystem CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Li, Longhui; Ceschia, Eric; Wattenbach, Martin; Bernhofer, Christian; Emmel, Carmen; Grünwald, Thomas; Jans, Wilma; Loubet, Benjamin; Wu, Xiuchen

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, efforts have been carried on to develop and evaluate versions of global terrestrial ecosystem models (GTEM) in which crop specificities are represented. The goal of this study is to evaluate the ability of the ORCHIDEE-STICS (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic

  7. 1 Ecosystem-based.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Abstract. The ecosystem approach is a widely accepted framework for natural resource ... Here, we present a set of indicators, and a toolkit to aid their application, that are intended to support the ... Ability to adapt to different spatial scales ... growth of plants and algae, which may increase to create .... taxonomic resources).

  8. Microtopography recreation benefits ecosystem restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wei; Liding Chen; Lei Yang; F. Fred Samadani; Ge Sun

    2012-01-01

    Within the context of global warming and accelerated human activities, the surrounding environments of many terrestrial ecosystems worldwide have become increasingly deteriorated, such that finding suitable methods and effective environmental technology to confront climate change and prevent land degradation is critical to the health and sustainability of the earth. In...

  9. Stability measures in arid ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosshi, M. I.; Brunsell, N. A.; Koerner, S.

    2015-12-01

    Stability, the capacity of ecosystems to persist in the face of change, has proven its relevance as a fundamental component of ecological theory. Here, we would like to explore meaningful and quantifiable metrics to define stability, with a focus on highly variable arid and semi-arid savanna ecosystems. Recognizing the importance of a characteristic timescale to any definition of stability, our metrics will be focused scales from annual to multi-annual, capturing different aspects of stability. Our three measures of stability, in increasing order of temporal scale, are: (1) Ecosystem resistance, quantified as the degree to which the system maintains its mean state in response to a perturbation (drought), based on inter-annual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). (2) An optimization approach, relevant to arid systems with pulse dynamics, that models vegetation structure and function based on a trade off between the ability to respond to resource availability and avoid stress. (3) Community resilience, measured as species turnover rate (β diversity). Understanding the nature of stability in structurally-diverse arid ecosystems, which are highly variable, yields theoretical insight which has practical implications.

  10. Quantifying the web browser ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdman, Sela; Minkov, Einat; Gefen, David

    2017-01-01

    Contrary to the assumption that web browsers are designed to support the user, an examination of a 900,000 distinct PCs shows that web browsers comprise a complex ecosystem with millions of addons collaborating and competing with each other. It is possible for addons to “sneak in” through third party installations or to get “kicked out” by their competitors without user involvement. This study examines that ecosystem quantitatively by constructing a large-scale graph with nodes corresponding to users, addons, and words (terms) that describe addon functionality. Analyzing addon interactions at user level using the Personalized PageRank (PPR) random walk measure shows that the graph demonstrates ecological resilience. Adapting the PPR model to analyzing the browser ecosystem at the level of addon manufacturer, the study shows that some addon companies are in symbiosis and others clash with each other as shown by analyzing the behavior of 18 prominent addon manufacturers. Results may herald insight on how other evolving internet ecosystems may behave, and suggest a methodology for measuring this behavior. Specifically, applying such a methodology could transform the addon market. PMID:28644833

  11. A framework to assess biogeochemical response to ecosystem disturbance using nutrient partitioning ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kranabetter, J. Marty; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Enders, Sara K.; Fraterrigo, Jennifer M.; Higuera, Philip E.; Morris, Jesse L.; Rastetter, Edward B.; Barnes, Rebecca; Buma, Brian; Gavin, Daniel G.; Gerhart, Laci M.; Gillson, Lindsey; Hietz, Peter; Mack, Michelle C.; McNeil, Brenden; Perakis, Steven

    2016-01-01

    Disturbances affect almost all terrestrial ecosystems, but it has been difficult to identify general principles regarding these influences. To improve our understanding of the long-term consequences of disturbance on terrestrial ecosystems, we present a conceptual framework that analyzes disturbances by their biogeochemical impacts. We posit that the ratio of soil and plant nutrient stocks in mature ecosystems represents a characteristic site property. Focusing on nitrogen (N), we hypothesize that this partitioning ratio (soil N: plant N) will undergo a predictable trajectory after disturbance. We investigate the nature of this partitioning ratio with three approaches: (1) nutrient stock data from forested ecosystems in North America, (2) a process-based ecosystem model, and (3) conceptual shifts in site nutrient availability with altered disturbance frequency. Partitioning ratios could be applied to a variety of ecosystems and successional states, allowing for improved temporal scaling of disturbance events. The generally short-term empirical evidence for recovery trajectories of nutrient stocks and partitioning ratios suggests two areas for future research. First, we need to recognize and quantify how disturbance effects can be accreting or depleting, depending on whether their net effect is to increase or decrease ecosystem nutrient stocks. Second, we need to test how altered disturbance frequencies from the present state may be constructive or destructive in their effects on biogeochemical cycling and nutrient availability. Long-term studies, with repeated sampling of soils and vegetation, will be essential in further developing this framework of biogeochemical response to disturbance.

  12. Decadal ecosystem response to an anomalous melt season in a polar desert in Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooseff, Michael N; Barrett, John E; Adams, Byron J; Doran, Peter T; Fountain, Andrew G; Lyons, W Berry; McKnight, Diane M; Priscu, John C; Sokol, Eric R; Takacs-Vesbach, Cristina; Vandegehuchte, Martijn L; Virginia, Ross A; Wall, Diana H

    2017-09-01

    Amplified climate change in polar regions is significantly altering regional ecosystems, yet there are few long-term records documenting these responses. The McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) cold desert ecosystem is the largest ice-free area of Antarctica, comprising soils, glaciers, meltwater streams and permanently ice-covered lakes. Multi-decadal records indicate that the MDV exhibited a distinct ecosystem response to an uncharacteristic austral summer and ensuing climatic shift. A decadal summer cooling phase ended in 2002 with intense glacial melt ('flood year')-a step-change in water availability triggering distinct changes in the ecosystem. Before 2002, the ecosystem exhibited synchronous behaviour: declining stream flow, decreasing lake levels, thickening lake ice cover, decreasing primary production in lakes and streams, and diminishing soil secondary production. Since 2002, summer air temperatures and solar flux have been relatively consistent, leading to lake level rise, lake ice thinning and elevated stream flow. Biological responses varied; one stream cyanobacterial mat type immediately increased production, but another stream mat type, soil invertebrates and lake primary productivity responded asynchronously a few years after 2002. This ecosystem response to a climatic anomaly demonstrates differential biological community responses to substantial perturbations, and the mediation of biological responses to climate change by changes in physical ecosystem properties.

  13. Future directions of ecosystem science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Galvin, Kathleen A.

    1990-01-01

    Scientific knowledge about ecosystem structure and function has expanded greatly during the past few decades. Terrestrial and aquatic nutrient cycling, ecosystem energetics, population dynamics, belowground processes, and food webs have been studied at the plot, stand, watershed, and landscape levels at many locations around the globe. Ideas about terrestrial-atmospheric interactions and human interference in these processes have changed dramatically. There is new appreciation of the need to incorporate into ecosystem studies the interactions between human populations and the ecosystem, not only because humans affect ecosystem processes, but because these systems support human populations (Glantz 1988, Holden 1988, Parry et al. 1988, WCED 1987). Recent advances in ecosystem science are due, in part, to technological improvements in computing power, new laboratory and field physical and chemical analytical techniques, and satellite imagery for remote sensing of Earth's structure and dynamics. Modeling and geographic information systems have provided the capability for integrating multiple data sets with process simulations to generate hypotheses about regional ecosystem function. Concurrent with these scientific developments has been a growing concern about the links between the health of the environment and world-wide industrial, land, and resource-management practices. Environmental damage at the local level was widely recognized in the 1960s, prompting the environmental movement of that decade. Regional environmental problems with multiple effects and politically difficult solutions have been perceived more recently; the issue of acidic deposition provides an example of such a second-generation concern (Clark and Holling 1985). Today there is a growing awareness of global-scale environmental degradation brought about by the combined actions of all peoples on Earth (Clark 1989, Woodmansee et al. 1988). The three levels of environmental concern--local, regional

  14. Steady State Shift Damage Localization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sekjær, Claus; Bull, Thomas; Markvart, Morten Kusk

    2017-01-01

    The steady state shift damage localization (S3DL) method localizes structural deterioration, manifested as either a mass or stiffness perturbation, by interrogating the damage-induced change in the steady state vibration response with damage patterns cast from a theoretical model. Damage is, thus...... the required accuracy when examining complex structures, an extensive amount of degrees of freedom (DOF) must often be utilized. Since the interrogation matrix for each damage pattern depends on the size of the system matrices constituting the FE-model, the computational time quickly becomes of first......-order importance. The present paper investigates two sub-structuring approaches, in which the idea is to employ Craig-Bampton super-elements to reduce the amount of interrogation distributions while still providing an acceptable localization resolution. The first approach operates on a strict super-element level...

  15. Identical and shifted identical bands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodder, R.S; Jones, E.F.; Hamilton, J.H.

    1997-01-01

    Spontaneous fission of 252 Cm was studied with 72 large Compton suppressed Ge detectors in Gamma sphere. New isotopes 160 Sm and 162 Gd were identified. Through X-ray-γ and γ-γ-γ) coincidence measurements, level energies were established to spins 14 + to 20 + in 152 , 154 156 60 Nd 92 94 96 , 156 , 158 , 160 62 Sm 94 , 96 , 98 , and 160 , 162 64 Gd 96 , 98 . These nuclei exhibit a remarkable variety of identical bands and bands where the energies and moments of inertia are shifted by the same constant amount for every spin state from 2 + to 12 + for various combinations of nuclei differing by 2n, 4n, 2p, 4p, and α

  16. Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

    2016-03-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

  17. [Research progress of ecosystem service flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hui Min; Fan, Yu Long; Ding, Sheng Yan

    2016-07-01

    With the development of social economy, human disturbance has resulted in a variety of ecosystem service degradation or disappearance. Ecosystem services flow plays an important role in delivery, transformation and maintenance of ecosystem services, and becomes one of the new research directions. In this paper, based on the classification of ecosystem services flow, we analyzed ecosystem service delivery carrier, and investigated the mechanism of ecosystem service flow, including the information, property, scale features, quantification and cartography. Moreover, a tentative analysis on cost-effective of ecosystem services flow (such as transportation costs, conversion costs, usage costs and cost of relativity) was made to analyze the consumption cost in ecosystem services flow process. It aimed to analyze dissipation cost in ecosystem services flow process. To a certain extent, the study of ecosystem service flow solved the problem of "double counting" in ecosystem services valuation, which could make a contribution for the sake of recognizing hot supply and consumption spots of ecosystem services. In addition, it would be conducive to maximizing the ecosystem service benefits in the transmission process and putting forward scientific and reasonable ecological compensation.

  18. Shifts in tree functional composition amplify the response of forest biomass to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Niinemets, Ülo; Sheffield, Justin; Lichstein, Jeremy W.

    2018-04-01

    Forests have a key role in global ecosystems, hosting much of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity and acting as a net sink for atmospheric carbon. These and other ecosystem services that are provided by forests may be sensitive to climate change as well as climate variability on shorter time scales (for example, annual to decadal). Previous studies have documented responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and climate variability, including drought-induced increases in tree mortality rates. However, relationships between forest biomass, tree species composition and climate variability have not been quantified across a large region using systematically sampled data. Here we use systematic forest inventories from the 1980s and 2000s across the eastern USA to show that forest biomass responds to decadal-scale changes in water deficit, and that this biomass response is amplified by concurrent changes in community-mean drought tolerance, a functionally important aspect of tree species composition. The amplification of the direct effects of water stress on biomass occurs because water stress tends to induce a shift in tree species composition towards species that are more tolerant to drought but are slower growing. These results demonstrate concurrent changes in forest species composition and biomass carbon storage across a large, systematically sampled region, and highlight the potential for climate-induced changes in forest ecosystems across the world, resulting from both direct effects of climate on forest biomass and indirect effects mediated by shifts in species composition.

  19. Shifts in tree functional composition amplify the response of forest biomass to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Niinemets, Ülo; Sheffield, Justin; Lichstein, Jeremy W

    2018-04-05

    Forests have a key role in global ecosystems, hosting much of the world's terrestrial biodiversity and acting as a net sink for atmospheric carbon. These and other ecosystem services that are provided by forests may be sensitive to climate change as well as climate variability on shorter time scales (for example, annual to decadal). Previous studies have documented responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and climate variability, including drought-induced increases in tree mortality rates. However, relationships between forest biomass, tree species composition and climate variability have not been quantified across a large region using systematically sampled data. Here we use systematic forest inventories from the 1980s and 2000s across the eastern USA to show that forest biomass responds to decadal-scale changes in water deficit, and that this biomass response is amplified by concurrent changes in community-mean drought tolerance, a functionally important aspect of tree species composition. The amplification of the direct effects of water stress on biomass occurs because water stress tends to induce a shift in tree species composition towards species that are more tolerant to drought but are slower growing. These results demonstrate concurrent changes in forest species composition and biomass carbon storage across a large, systematically sampled region, and highlight the potential for climate-induced changes in forest ecosystems across the world, resulting from both direct effects of climate on forest biomass and indirect effects mediated by shifts in species composition.

  20. Rapid ecosystem change challenges the adaptive capacity of Local Environmental Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; Luz, Ana C; Cabeza, Mar; Pyhälä, Aili; Reyes-García, Victoria

    2015-03-01

    The use of Local Environmental Knowledge has been considered as an important strategy for adaptive management in the face of Global Environmental Change. However, the unprecedented rates at which global change occurs may pose a challenge to the adaptive capacity of local knowledge systems. In this paper, we use the concept of the shifting baseline syndrome to examine the limits in the adaptive capacity of the local knowledge of an indigenous society facing rapid ecosystem change. We conducted semi-structured interviews regarding perceptions of change in wildlife populations and in intergenerational transmission of knowledge amongst the Tsimane', a group of hunter-gatherers of Bolivian Amazonia ( n = 300 adults in 13 villages). We found that the natural baseline against which the Tsimane' measure ecosystem changes might be shifting with every generation as a result of (a) age-related differences in the perception of change and (b) a decrease in the intergenerational sharing of environmental knowledge. Such findings suggest that local knowledge systems might not change at a rate quick enough to adapt to conditions of rapid ecosystem change, hence potentially compromising the adaptive success of the entire social-ecological system. With the current pace of Global Environmental Change, widening the gap between the temporal rates of on-going ecosystem change and the timescale needed for local knowledge systems to adjust to change, efforts to tackle the shifting baseline syndrome are urgent and critical for those who aim to use Local Environmental Knowledge as a tool for adaptive management.