WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate-driven catastrophic phase

  1. A gradient catastrophe mechanism in contexts of the phase change condition

    OpenAIRE

    Durmagambetov, A. A.

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the mechanism of occurrence of a gradient catastrophe when changing phase. Materials shows that classical methods of estimation theory of functions do not fit the problem of studying the gradient catastrophe. We present material showing that the embedding theorem can not give an opportunity to study the process of a gradient catastrophe. In fact, work justifies pessimism Terence Tao in the insolvency of modern mathematics to solve the problem of the Navier-Stokes equations...

  2. Scaling single-state variable catastrophe functions: an application to two-phase natural circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper I present transformation laws to scale physical processes governed by polynomial equations. Of particular importance is the class of polynomials which describe catastrophe functions. Many important, stability-related, thermal hydraulic phenomena are described by these catastrophe functions, including flooding, two-phase natural circulation, and critical heat flux. Catastrophe functions can be used to define the boundaries of stable system behavior. If a process evolves such that one of these boundaries are crossed, it will undergo a discontinuity which radically alters its evolution (i.e. morphogenesis). By scaling these catastrophe functions, processes exhibiting discontinuous behavior can be studied in scaled test models rather than experimenting with a full-scale, and typically very expensive, prototype. To illustrate their usefulness, the catastrophe function transformation laws are applied to the practical problem of scaling two-phase fluid natural circulation. In addition, the catastrophe manifold for two-phase fluid natural circulation is developed and evaluated to obtain a criterion for the onset of flow instability. ((orig.))

  3. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    García-Ramos, J.E., E-mail: enrique.ramos@dfaie.uhu.es [Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Huelva, 21071 Huelva (Spain); Unidad Asociada de la Universidad de Huelva al IEM (CSIC), Madrid (Spain); Arias, J.M., E-mail: ariasc@us.es [Departamento de Física Atómica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad de Sevilla, Apdo 1065, 41080 Sevilla (Spain); Unidad Asociada de la Universidad de Sevilla al IEM (CSIC), Madrid (Spain); Dukelsky, J., E-mail: dukelsky@iem.cfmac.csic.es [Instituto de Estructura de la Materia, CSIC, Serrano 123, 28006 Madrid (Spain)

    2014-09-07

    We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2). Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

  4. Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2). Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe

  5. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  6. Functional resilience against climate-driven extinctions

    OpenAIRE

    Liebergesell, Mario; Reu, Björn; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 trait...

  7. Phase diagram of the two-fluid Lipkin model: A "butterfly" catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ramos, J. E.; Pérez-Fernández, P.; Arias, J. M.; Freire, E.

    2016-03-01

    Background: In the past few decades quantum phase transitions have been of great interest in nuclear physics. In this context, two-fluid algebraic models are ideal systems to study how the concept of quantum phase transition evolves when moving into more complex systems, but the number of publications along this line has been scarce up to now. Purpose: We intend to determine the phase diagram of a two-fluid Lipkin model that resembles the nuclear proton-neutron interacting boson model Hamiltonian using both numerical results and analytic tools, i.e., catastrophe theory, and compare the mean-field results with exact diagonalizations for large systems. Method: The mean-field energy surface of a consistent-Q -like two-fluid Lipkin Hamiltonian is studied and compared with exact results coming from a direct diagonalization. The mean-field results are analyzed using the framework of catastrophe theory. Results: The phase diagram of the model is obtained and the order of the different phase-transition lines and surfaces is determined using a catastrophe theory analysis. Conclusions: There are two first-order surfaces in the phase diagram, one separating the spherical and the deformed shapes, while the other separates two different deformed phases. A second-order line, where the later surfaces merge, is found. This line finishes in a transition point with a divergence in the second-order derivative of the energy that corresponds to a tricritical point in the language of the Ginzburg-Landau theory for phase transitions.

  8. Phase diagram of the two-fluid Lipkin model: a butterfly catastrophe

    CERN Document Server

    García-Ramos, J E; Arias, J M; Freire, E

    2016-01-01

    Background: In the last few decades quantum phase transitions have been of great interest in Nuclear Physics. In this context, two-fluid algebraic models are ideal systems to study how the concept of quantum phase transition evolves when moving into more complex systems, but the number of publications along this line has been scarce up to now. Purpose: We intend to determine the phase diagram of a two-fluid Lipkin model, that resembles the nuclear proton-neutron interacting boson model Hamiltonian, using both numerical results and analytic tools, i.e., catastrophe theory, and to compare the mean-field results with exact diagonalizations for large systems. Method: The mean-field energy surface of a consistent-Q-like two-fluid Lipkin Hamiltonian is studied and compared with exact results coming from a direct diagonalization. The mean-field results are analyzed using the framework of catastrophe theory. Results: The phase diagram of the model is obtained and the order of the different phase-transition lines and ...

  9. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Petrakov

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  10. Catastrophic and Transitional Phase Inversion of Water-in-Oil Emulsion for Heavy and Light Crude Oil

    OpenAIRE

    Azhary H. Nour; A.N. Ilia Anisa; Abdurahman H. Nour

    2010-01-01

    The stability of emulsion plays an important role either for catastrophic or transitional phase inversion to break and inverse emulsion from w/o to o/w or vice versa. The stability of emulsion also depends on the rheology and characteristics of the crude oil. In this study, the characteristics of crude oil were investigated closely before emulsion was prepared to further study in catastrophic and transitional phase inversion. The prepared emulsion, volume fraction (10-90 to 60-40% w/o emulsio...

  11. Catastrophic regime shifts in model ecological communities are true phase transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in external conditions. Usual models introduce nonlinearities in the macroscopic dynamics of the ecosystem that lead to different stable attractors among which the shift takes place. Here we propose an alternative explanation of catastrophic regime shifts based on a recent model that pictures ecological communities as systems in continuous fluctuation, according to certain transition probabilities, between different micro-states in the phase space of viable communities. We introduce a spontaneous extinction rate that accounts for gradual changes in external conditions, and upon variations on this control parameter the system undergoes a regime shift with similar features to those previously reported. Under our microscopic viewpoint we recover the main results obtained in previous theoretical and empirical work (anomalous variance, hysteresis cycles, trophic cascades). The model predicts a gradual loss of species in trophic levels from bottom to top near the transition. But more importantly, the spectral analysis of the transition probability matrix allows us to rigorously establish that we are observing the fingerprints, in a finite size system, of a true phase transition driven by background extinctions

  12. Exposure-driven macroalgal phase shift following catastrophic disturbance on coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roff, George; Chollett, Iliana; Doropoulos, Christopher; Golbuu, Yimnang; Steneck, Robert S.; Isechal, Adelle L.; van Woesik, Robert; Mumby, Peter J.

    2015-09-01

    Environmental conditions play an important role in post-disturbance dynamics of ecosystems by modulating recovery of surviving communities and influencing patterns of succession. Here, we document the effects of wave exposure following a catastrophic disturbance on coral reefs in driving a phase shift to macroalgal dominance. In December 2012, a Category 5 super typhoon (`Typhoon Bopha') passed 50 km to the south of Palau (Micronesia), causing a major loss of reef corals. Immediately post-disturbance, a rapid and extensive phase shift of the macroalgae Liagora sp. (Rhodophyta) was observed at sites exposed to chronic wave exposure. To quantify the influence of biotic and abiotic drivers in modulating the extent of post-disturbance Liagora blooms, we compared benthic substrates and herbivore assemblages at sites surveyed pre- and post-disturbance across a gradient of wave exposure. Relative changes in herbivore biomass and coral cover before and after disturbance did not significantly predict the extent of Liagora cover, indicating that changes in herbivore biomass or reductions in grazing pressure were not directly responsible for driving the Liagora blooms. By contrast, the degree of wave exposure experienced at sites post-disturbance explained >90 % of model variance ( p exposure sites, while most extensive blooms were observed at highly exposed sites. At regional scales, spatial maps of wave exposure accurately predicted the presence of Liagora at impacted sites throughout the Palau archipelago (>150 km distance), highlighting the predictive capacity of wave exposure as an explanatory variable and the deterministic nature of post-disturbance macroalgal blooms. Understanding how physical conditions modulate recovery of ecosystems after disturbance allows insight into post-disturbance dynamics and succession of communities, ultimately allowing management strategies to prioritise restoration efforts in regions that are most effective.

  13. Climate-driven fluctuation of a wild bird population over the past half millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naef-Daenzer, B.; Luterbacher, J.; Nuber, M.; Rutishauser, Th.; Winkel, W.

    2009-04-01

    Mechanisms underlying climate-driven changes in ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood because hardly any ecological records start before the recent warming phase. We analyse an exceptional 100-year record of the great tit population (Parus major) and habitat phenology in Switzerland, and model climate-driven population fluctuations since AD 1500. Additional to high plasticity of the system, we find a significant influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation) on fitness-relevant life history traits and population dynamics. The multidecadal circulation impact resulted in low fecundity and population minima during the ‘Maunder Minimum' (1650-1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810-1850), whereas the warming since 1975 is related with the highest productivity since 1500 and an unprecedented increase of the population.

  14. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  15. Entanglement in quantum catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Emary, C; Brandes, T; Emary, Clive; Lambert, Neill; Brandes, Tobias

    2005-01-01

    We classify entanglement singularities for various two-mode bosonic systems in terms of catastrophe theory. Employing an abstract phase-space representation, we obtain exact results in limiting cases for the entropy in cusp, butterfly, and two-dimensional catastrophes. We furthermore use numerical results to extract the scaling of the entropy with the non-linearity parameter, and discuss the role of mixing entropies in more complex systems.

  16. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  17. Resounding Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Thomas Bjørnsten

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses specific aesthetic strategies for articulating and describing the catastrophic event of 9/11 by focusing on its auditory aspects. This is done through a reading of the American media- and sound artist Stephen Vitiello’s work and novelist Don DeLillo’s Falling Man....

  18. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  19. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in Denmark the article investigates the Palestinian temporality of Nakba that is equivalent to a time of security in the sense that it is concerned with existential threats and emergency action. The Arabic term Nakba literally means catastrophe and is in...... Palestinian national discourse used to designate the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, when more than half of the Palestinian population were expelled from their homeland – a reverse national myth about how Palestine failed to come into being. Yet, according to Palestinians in Denmark, the Nakba cannot be relegated...

  20. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. PMID:27062059

  1. Climate-driven diversity loss in a grassland community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Susan P; Gornish, Elise S; Copeland, Stella

    2015-07-14

    Local ecological communities represent the scale at which species coexist and share resources, and at which diversity has been experimentally shown to underlie stability, productivity, invasion resistance, and other desirable community properties. Globally, community diversity shows a mixture of increases and decreases over recent decades, and these changes have relatively seldom been linked to climatic trends. In a heterogeneous California grassland, we documented declining plant diversity from 2000 to 2014 at both the local community (5 m(2)) and landscape (27 km(2)) scales, across multiple functional groups and soil environments. Communities became particularly poorer in native annual forbs, which are present as small seedlings in midwinter; within native annual forbs, community composition changed toward lower representation of species with a trait indicating drought intolerance (high specific leaf area). Time series models linked diversity decline to the significant decrease in midwinter precipitation. Livestock grazing history, fire, succession, N deposition, and increases in exotic species could be ruled out as contributing causes. This finding is among the first demonstrations to our knowledge of climate-driven directional loss of species diversity in ecological communities in a natural (nonexperimental) setting. Such diversity losses, which may also foreshadow larger-scale extinctions, may be especially likely in semiarid regions that are undergoing climatic trends toward higher aridity and lower productivity. PMID:26100891

  2. Coherent catastrophism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asher, D. J.; Clube, S. V. M.; Napier, W. M.; Steel, D. I.

    We review the theoretical and observational evidence that, on timescales relevant to mankind, the prime collision hazard is posed by temporally correlated impacts (coherent catastrophism, Δt ˜ 10 2-10 4 yr) rather than random ones (stochastic catastrophism, Δt ˜ 10 5-10 8 yr). The mechanism whereby coherent incursions into and through the terrestrial atmosphere occur is described as being the result of giant cometary bodies arriving in orbits with perihelia in the inner solar system. Hierarchical fragmentation of such large (100 km-plus) bodies — due to thermal stresses near perihelion, collisions in the asteroid belt, or passages through the Jovian Roche radius — results in numerous ˜kilometre-sized objects being left in short-period orbits, and appearing in telescopic searches as Apollo-type asteroids. Many more smaller objects, in the 10-100 metre size range and only recently observed, by the Spacewatch team, are expected to be in replenished clusters in particular orbits as a result of continuing disintegrations of large, differentiated, cometary objects. Gravitational perturbations by Jupiter bring these clusters around to have a node at 1 AU in a cyclic fashion, leading to impacts at certain times of year every few years during active periods lasting a few centuries, such periods being separated by intervals of a few millennia. Furthermore, fragmentations within the hierarchy result in significant bombardment commensurabilities ( Δt ˜ 10-10 2 yr) during active periods occurring at random intervals ( Δt ˜ 10 2-10 3 yr). It appears that the Earth has been subject to such impacts since the break-up of such a comet ˜2×10 4 years ago; currently we are not passing through a high-risk epoch, although some phenomena originating in the products of this break-up have been observed in the 20th century. This most recent hierarchical disintegration, associated with four well-known meteor showers and termed the Taurid Complex, is now recognized as resulting

  3. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  4. Catastrophic volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Peter W.

    1988-01-01

    Since primitive times, catastrophes due to volcanic activity have been vivid in the mind of man, who knew that his activities in many parts of the world were threatened by lava flows, mudflows, and ash falls. Within the present century, increasingly complex interactions between volcanism and the environment, on scales not previously experienced historically, have been detected or suspected from geologic observations. These include enormous hot pyroclastic flows associated with collapse at source calderas and fed by eruption columns that reached the stratosphere, relations between huge flood basalt eruptions at hotspots and the rifting of continents, devastating laterally-directed volcanic blasts and pyroclastic surges, great volcanic-generated tsunamis, climate modification from volcanic release of ash and sulfur aerosols into the upper atmosphere, modification of ocean circulation by volcanic constructs and attendent climatic implications, global pulsations in intensity of volcanic activity, and perhaps triggering of some intense terrestrial volcanism by planetary impacts. Complex feedback between volcanic activity and additional seemingly unrelated terrestrial processes likely remains unrecognized. Only recently has it become possible to begin to evaluate the degree to which such large-scale volcanic processes may have been important in triggering or modulating the tempo of faunal extinctions and other evolutionary events. In this overview, such processes are examined from the viewpoint of a field volcanologist, rather than as a previous participant in controversies concerning the interrelations between extinctions, impacts, and volcanism.

  5. Investigation of shape phase transition in the U(5) ↔ SO(6) transitional region by catastrophe theory and critical exponents of some quantities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, we have analyzed the critical behavior of even–even Ru and Pd isotopes between U(5) and SO(6) limits of interacting boson model via Catastrophe Theory in combination with a coherent state formalism to generate energy surfaces. The parameters of the Hamiltonian are determined via least-square fitting to the experimental data for different Ru and Pd isotopes. Our results suggest a second-order phase transition in these isotopic chains and propose the best candidates for E(5) critical symmetry. Also, the analogy between the critical exponents of ground state quantum phase transition and Landau values for the critical exponents of thermodynamic phase transitions are described. (author)

  6. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  7. The Role of Menstrual Cycle Phase and Anxiety Sensitivity in Catastrophic Misinterpretation of Physical Symptoms During a CO2 Challenge

    OpenAIRE

    Nillni, Yael I.; Rohan, Kelly J.; Zvolensky, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined the interactive effects of anxiety sensitivity (AS; fear of anxiety and anxiety-related sensations) and menstrual cycle phase (premenstrual phase vs. follicular phase) on panic-relevant responding (i.e., cognitive and physical panic symptoms, subjective anxiety, and skin conductance level). Women completed a baseline session and underwent a 3-minute 10% CO2-enriched air biological challenge paradigm during her premenstrual and follicular menstrual cycle phases. Part...

  8. Climate-driven enrichment of pollutants in peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Martínez Cortizas

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands play an important role for global carbon dynamics, acting as a sink or source depending on climate. Such changes imply a series of additional effects because peatlands are also an important reservoir of atmospherically derived pollutants. Using a multiproxy approach (non-pollen-palynomorphs, δ15N, C/N, Se, Br, I, Hg, Ti, we show a relationship between climate (wetter–drier and peat decomposition, which affected element concentrations in a Spanish bog during the last 5500 years. Changes in superficial wetness played a critical role in the cycling of elements coupled to carbon dynamics. Dry phases caused increased peat mineralisation, resulting in a 2–3 times increase in concentrations of the analysed elements independent from atmospheric fluxes. Under the present trend of climate change large areas of northern peatlands are expected to be severely affected; in this context our findings indicate that the increase in carbon release, which leads to an enrichment of elements, may enhance the export of stored contaminants (Hg, organohalogens to the aquatic systems or to the atmosphere.

  9. Climate-driven enrichment of pollutants in peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Martínez Cortizas

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands play an important role for global carbon dynamics, acting as a sink or source depending on climate. Such changes imply a series of additional effects because peatlands are also an important reservoir of atmospherically derived pollutants. Using a multiproxy approach (non-pollen-palynomorphs, δ15N, C/N, Se, Br, I, Hg, Ti, we show a relationship between climate (wetter-drier and peat decomposition, which affected element concentrations in a Spanish bog during the last 5500 years. Changes in superficial wetness played a critical role in the cycling of elements coupled to carbon dynamics. Dry phases caused increased peat mineralisation, resulting in a 2–3 times increase in concentrations of the analysed elements independent from atmospheric fluxes. Under the present trend of climate change large areas of northern peatlands are expected to be severely affected; in this context our findings indicate that the increase in carbon release, which leads to an enrichment of elements, may enhance the export of stored contaminants (Hg, organohalogens to the aquatic systems or to the atmosphere.

  10. Projecting climate-driven increases in North American fire activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate regulates fire activity through controls on vegetation productivity (fuels), lightning ignitions, and conditions governing fire spread. In many regions of the world, human management also influences the timing, duration, and extent of fire activity. These coupled interactions between human and natural systems make fire a complex component of the Earth system. Satellite data provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of recent fire activity, as active fires, burned area, and land cover information can be combined to separate wildfires from intentional burning for agriculture and forestry. Here, we combined satellite-derived burned area data with land cover and climate data to assess fire-climate relationships in North America between 2000-2012. We used the latest versions of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burned area product and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate data to develop regional relationships between burned area and potential evaporation (PE), an integrated dryness metric. Logistic regression models were developed to link burned area with PE and individual climate variables during and preceding the fire season, and optimal models were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Overall, our model explained 85% of the variance in burned area since 2000 across North America. Fire-climate relationships from the era of satellite observations provide a blueprint for potential changes in fire activity under scenarios of climate change. We used that blueprint to evaluate potential changes in fire activity over the next 50 years based on twenty models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models suggest an increase of PE under low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with largest increases in projected burned area across the western US and central Canada. Overall, near

  11. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J. T.; Gardner, A. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Wiese, D. N.; Eicker, A.; Lo, M.-H.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level.

  12. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2016-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

  13. Understanding Atmospheric Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Winston C.

    2009-01-01

    The atmosphere, as in other parts of nature, is full of phenomena that involve rapid transitions from one (quasi-) equilibrium state to another--- i.e. catastrophes. These (quasi-) equilibria are the multiple solutions of the same dynamical system. Unlocking the mystery behind a catastrophe reveals not only the physical mechanism responsible for the transition, but also how the (quasi-) equilibria before and after the transition are maintained. Each catastrophe is different, but they do have some common traits. Understanding these common traits is the first step in studying these catastrophes. In this seminar, three examples chosen based on the speaker's research interest--tropical cyclogenesis, stratospheric sudden warming, and monsoon onset--are given to illustrate how atmospheric catastrophes can be studied.

  14. Habitability and cosmic catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Hanslmeier, Arnold; McKay, Christopher P

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic cosmic events such as asteroid impacts appear in the range of some 100 million years and have drastically affected evolution. The author discusses whether and how such events could have occurred in recently found extrasolar planetary systems.

  15. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shereef, Rawhya R; El-Abedin, Zein; Abdel Aziz, Rashad; Talat, Ibrahim; Saleh, Mohammed; Abdel-Samia, Hanna; Sameh, Amro; Sharha, Mahmoud

    2016-01-01

    This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Management of this patient is discussed in detail. PMID:27375916

  16. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  17. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    OpenAIRE

    Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0....

  18. Catastrophes in surface scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theoretical and experimental studies concerning atom-surface interactions in the energy range from hyperthermal to approximately 100 eV are reported. An extended study of the interaction of low energetic alkalis (sodium and potassium) with a silver crystal is presented. Finally the ultimate experimental result in this research, the first observation of catastrophes in surface scattering, is shown. The results clearly indicate the strength of the catastrophe analysis in gas-surface scattering. 218 refs.; 40 figs.; 170 schemes; 4 tabs

  19. Climate-driven sympatry may not lead to foraging competition between congeneric top-predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, Megan A; Moline, Mark A; Fraser, William R; Patterson-Fraser, Donna L; Oliver, Matthew J

    2016-01-01

    Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. On fine scales, we tested for foraging competition between these species during the chick-rearing period by comparing their foraging behaviors with the distribution of their prey, Antarctic krill. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguins, and found that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. In overlapping Adélie and gentoo penguin foraging areas, four gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion of Adélie penguins by gentoo penguins. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is one of the major drivers of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories. PMID:26732496

  20. Is Geothermal Simulation a "Catastrophe"?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, V.V.; Pinder, George F.

    1980-12-16

    All numerical simulators of geothermal reservoirs depend upon an accurate representation of the thermodynamics of steam-water systems. These relationships are required to render tractable the system of balance equations derived from the physics of flow through porous media. While it is generally recognized that the steam-water system (i.e. two phase) is not in thermodynamic equilibrium, equihbrium thermodynamics are employed in its description. In this paper, we present an alternative view based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The underpinnings of this approach are found in a branch of topology generally referred to as "catastrophe theory". [Thom, 1975

  1. Is geothermal simulation a catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, V.V.; Pinder, G.F.

    1980-01-01

    All numerical simulators of geothermal reservoirs depend upon an accurate representation of the thermodynamics of steam-water systems. These relationships are required to render tractable the system of balance equations derived from the physics of flow through porous media. While it is generally recognized that the steam-water system (i.e., two phase) is not in thermodynamic equilibrium, equilibrium thermodynamics are employed in its description. An alternative view based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics is presented. The underpinnings of this approach are found in a branch of topology generally referred to as catastrophe theory.

  2. Catastrophic breakdown of the Caves model for quantum noise in some phase-insensitive linear amplifiers or attenuators based on atomic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Minchuan; Zhou, Zifan; Shahriar, Selim M.

    2016-03-01

    When considering the effect of quantum noise (QN) in a phase-insensitive linear amplifier or attenuator, it is customary to use the single-channel Caves model (SC-CM). Although this model is valid in simple situations, such as the presence of a beam splitter, it is not necessarily valid when a system with many degrees of freedom is involved. In order to address this issue, we consider in this paper various atomic transitions corresponding to amplification or attenuation using the master-equation- (ME-) based approach to model the QN and to compare the results with the SC-CM. For a four-level system that consists of a transition producing a broad gain peak and a transition producing an absorption dip, which results in perfect transparency at the center, we observe a catastrophic breakdown of the SC-CM. We also show that for a general two-level atomic system, the SC-CM does not apply, except in the limiting case when only either amplification or attenuation exists. A special case where the two models predict the same result is a Λ-type three-level electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) system in which the QN at zero detuning vanishes while the system is in the dark state. We also study an optically pumped five-level gain EIT system which has a perfect transparency dip superimposed on a gain profile and yields the negative dispersion suitable for use in enhancing the sensitivity-bandwidth product of an interferometric gravitational wave detector. In this case, we find that, for some set of parameters, the QN is vanishingly small at the center of the dip, and the SC-CM agrees closely with the ME model. However, we also find that for some other set of parameters, the SC-SM model disagrees strongly with the ME model. All these cases illustrate a wide range of variations in the degree of disagreement between the predictions of the SC-CM and the ME approaches.

  3. Electron Vortex Production and Control Using Aberration Induced Diffraction Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, T. C.; Weyland, M.; Paganin, D. M.; Simula, T. P.; Eastwood, S. A.; Morgan, M. J.

    2013-01-01

    An aberration corrected electron microscope is used to create electron diffraction catastrophes, containing arrays of intensity zeros threading vortex cores. Vortices are ascribed to these arrays using catastrophe theory, scalar diffraction integrals, and experimentally retrieved phase maps. From measured wave function phases, obtained using focal-series phase retrieval, the orbital angular momentum density is mapped for highly astigmatic electron probes. We observe vortex rings and topological reconnections of nodal lines by tracking the vortex cores using the retrieved phases.

  4. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari S Myksvoll

    Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  5. Monitoring strategies of stream phosphorus under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyenola, Guillermo; Meerhoff, Marianna; Teixeira-de Mello, Franco;

    2015-01-01

    Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from land to downstream aquatic systems, in particular of phosphorus (P) from agricultural lands. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the differences in P export patterns and the...... performance of alternative monitoring strategies in streams under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes. We compared a set of paired streams draining lowland micro-catchments under temperate climate and stable discharge conditions (Denmark) and under sub-tropical climate and flashy conditions (Uruguay). We...... program to estimate P exports in flashy streams compared to the less variable streams. We also found signs of interaction between climate/hydrology and land use intensity, in particular in the presence of point sources of P, leading to a bias towards underestimation of P in hydrologically stable streams...

  6. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  7. Catastrophic Crop Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Edwards, William M.

    2003-01-01

    Beginning in 1995 farmers were offered the chance to carry a minimum level of Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) coverage at very little cost. This catastrophic or CAT insurance coverage replaces the protection offered to crop producers under federal disaster programs in recent years.

  8. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Flores (Gabriela); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section

  9. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  10. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  11. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    OpenAIRE

    O'Donnell, Owen; Flores, Gabriela

    2012-01-01

    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section data containing information on the means of financing health payments. We estimate medical expenditure risk in seven Asian countries and find it is highest in Laos and China, and is lowest in Mala...

  12. Valuing Catastrophic Citrus Losses

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Damian C.; Kilmer, Richard L.; Moss, Charles B.; Schmitz, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine "just compensation" when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of quantifying producer losses is estimating chang...

  13. The limits of catastrophe aversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Martin

    2002-06-01

    We discuss the management of catastrophe-risks from a theoretical point of view. The concept of a catastrophe is informally and formally defined, and a number of desiderata for catastrophe-averse decision rules are introduced. However, the proposed desiderata turn out to be mutually inconsistent. As a consequence of this result, it is argued that the "rigid" form of catastrophe aversion articulated by, for example, the maximin rule, the maximum probable loss rule, (some versions of) the precautionary principle, and the rule proposed in Ekenberg et al. (1997, 2000) should be given up. An alternative form of "non-rigid" catastrophe aversion is considered. PMID:12088231

  14. Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

    2013-09-01

    Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our

  15. Climatically driven loss of calcium in steppe soil as a sink for atmospheric carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenis, A.G.; Lawrence, G.B.; Bailey, S.W.; Aparin, B.F.; Shiklomanov, A.I.; Speranskaya, N.A.; Torn, M.S.; Calef, M.

    2008-01-01

    During the last several thousand years the semi-arid, cold climate of the Russian steppe formed highly fertile soils rich in organic carbon and calcium (classified as Chernozems in the Russian system). Analysis of archived soil samples collected in Kemannaya Steppe Preserve in 1920, 1947, 1970, and fresh samples collected in 1998 indicated that the native steppe Chernozems, however, lost 17-28 kg m-2 of calcium in the form of carbonates in 1970-1998. Here we demonstrate that the loss of calcium was caused by fundamental shift in the steppe hydrologic balance. Previously unleached soils where precipitation was less than potential evapotranspiration are now being leached due to increased precipitation and, possibly, due to decreased actual evapotranspiration. Because this region receives low levels of acidic deposition, the dissolution of carbonates involves the consumption of atmospheric CO2. Our estimates indicate that this climatically driven terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO2 is ???2.1-7.4 g C m-2 a-1. In addition to the net sink of atmospheric carbon, leaching of pedogenic carbonates significantly amplified seasonal amplitude of CO2 exchange between atmosphere and steppe soil. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

  17. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  18. Abdominal Vascular Catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Manpreet; Koyfman, Alex; Martinez, Joseph P

    2016-05-01

    Abdominal vascular catastrophes are among the most challenging and time sensitive for emergency practitioners to recognize. Mesenteric ischemia remains a highly lethal entity for which the history and physical examination can be misleading. Laboratory tests are often unhelpful, and appropriate imaging must be quickly obtained. A multidisciplinary approach is required to have a positive impact on mortality rates. Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm likewise may present in a cryptic fashion. A specific type of ruptured aneurysm, the aortoenteric fistula, often masquerades as the more common routine gastrointestinal bleed. The astute clinician recognizes that this is a more lethal variant of gastrointestinal hemorrhage. PMID:27133247

  19. Cosmic impacts, cosmic catastrophes. II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Clark R.; Morrison, David

    1990-01-01

    The role of extraterrestrial impacts in shaping the earth's history is discussed, arguing that cosmic impacts represent just one example of a general shift in thinking that has made the idea of catastrophes respectable in science. The origins of this view are presented and current catastrophic theory is discussed in the context of modern debate on the geological formation of the earth. Various conflicting theories are reviewed and prominent participants in the ongoing scientific controversy concerning catastrophism are introduced.

  20. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

    OpenAIRE

    Mario Liebergesell; Björn Reu; Ulrike Stahl; Martin Freiberg; Erik Welk; Jens Kattge; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Josep Peñuelas; Christian Wirth

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 trait...

  1. Climate-driven habitat size determines the latitudinal diversity gradient in temporary ponds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneitel, Jamie M

    2016-04-01

    The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) has been one of the most documented patterns in ecology, typically showing decreasing species diversity with increasing latitude. Studies of these patterns also used different spatial scales and dispersal traits to better understand the underpinning ecological factors. Seasonal freshwater ecosystems are less studied and may exhibit different patterns because they are more sensitive to climatic variation, which result in an inundation-desiccation cycle. In California, precipitation increases and temperature decreases with increasing latitude and thus the LDG pattern may be associated with this climatic gradient. Using collected data and United States Fish and Wildlife Service reports across seven degrees of latitude, analysis of California vernal pool invertebrate community (total richness and richness of passive and active dispersers) was conducted using correlations (Spearman rank and partial). Alpha diversity (total and passive dispersers) increased and beta diversity (passive dispersers) decreased with increasing latitude. Vernal pool surface area was correlated with active disperser alpha and passive disperser beta diversity. This suggests that climate-driven habitat size influences alpha and beta diversity patterns depending on dispersal ability. Active dispersers and predators exhibited higher beta diversity than passive dispersers and prey, respectively. Species composition differed among counties and some of these differences were correlated with pool depth and temperature. These results suggest that seasonal habitats will have diversity patterns strongly associated with local scale characteristics (habitat size and hydroperiod) determined by climate variation along the latitudinal gradient. Understanding these diversity patterns along the gradient will also contribute to management and restoration of these ecosystems with high endemism and diversity. PMID:27220212

  2. Evidence for climate-driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Joyce J L; Rountrey, Adam N; Zinke, Jens; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Grierson, Pauline F; O'Donnell, Alison J; Newman, Stephen J; Lough, Janice M; Trougan, Mélissa; Meekan, Mark G

    2016-08-01

    The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long-term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate-driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO-driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño-4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree-ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation

  3. Catastrophic medical expenditure risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Gabriela; O'Donnell, Owen

    2016-03-01

    We propose a measure of household exposure to particularly onerous medical expenses. The measure can be decomposed into the probability that medical expenditure exceeds a threshold, the loss due to predictably low consumption of other goods if it does and the further loss arising from the volatility of medical expenses above the threshold. Depending on the choice of threshold, the measure is consistent with a model of reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. Unlike the risk premium, the measure is only sensitive to particularly high expenses, and can identify households that expect to incur such expenses and would benefit from subsidised, but not actuarially fair, insurance. An empirical illustration using data from seven Asian countries demonstrates the importance of taking account of informal insurance and reveals clear differences in catastrophic medical expenditure risk across and within countries. In general, risk is higher among poorer, rural and chronically ill populations. PMID:26812650

  4. Presidential Address: Catastrophe Theory and Catastrophes in China's Civil Service Examinations (Part 1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Costa, Ayres

    1991-01-01

    Introduces Rene Thom's catastrophe theory, which is based upon complex theorems in multidimensional geometry. Catastrophe theory analysis begins by identifying the occurrence of major discontinuities, or catastrophes, in a system such as civil service exams, resulting in catastrophic change. (KS)

  5. Volcanoes and global catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simkin, Tom

    1988-01-01

    The search for a single explanation for global mass extinctions has let to polarization and the controversies that are often fueled by widespread media attention. The historic record shows a roughly linear log-log relation between the frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions and the volume of their products. Eruptions such as Mt. St. Helens 1980 produce on the order of 1 cu km of tephra, destroying life over areas in the 10 to 100 sq km range, and take place, on the average, once or twice a decade. Eruptions producing 10 cu km take place several times a century and, like Krakatau 1883, destroy life over 100 to 1000 sq km areas while producing clear global atmospheric effects. Eruptions producting 10,000 cu km are known from the Quaternary record, and extrapolation from the historic record suggests that they occur perhaps once in 20,000 years, but none has occurred in historic time and little is known of their biologic effects. Even larger eruptions must also exist in the geologic record, but documentation of their volume becomes increasingly difficult as their age increases. The conclusion is inescapable that prehistoric eruptions have produced catastrophes on a global scale: only the magnitude of the associated mortality is in question. Differentiation of large magma chambers is on a time scale of thousands to millions of years, and explosive volcanoes are clearly concentrated in narrow belts near converging plate margins. Volcanism cannot be dismissed as a producer of global catastrophes. Its role in major extinctions is likely to be at least contributory and may well be large. More attention should be paid to global effects of the many huge eruptions in the geologic record that dwarf those known in historic time.

  6. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  7. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Liebergesell

    Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  8. Should Governments Provide Catastrophe Insurance?

    OpenAIRE

    Jaffee, Dwight; Russell, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina and the terrorist attacks of 9/11 2001 have focused attention on the appropriate role of government in providing insurance against catastrophes. This paper argues that wherever possible governments should follow policies which enable the continuation of a private insurance market. In the event that government must itself provide catastrophe insurance it should follow the same actuarially based pricing and reserving rules that would be followed by a competitive private market.

  9. Women, catastrophe and mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raphael, Beverley; Taylor, Mel; McAndrew, Virginia

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the concept of catastrophic experience, its relationship to the range of acute and prolonged stressors to which women may be exposed and the broad impacts on their mental health and well-being. It identifies catastrophe in terms of multiple accumulated stresses including death, loss, victimization, demoralization, shame, stigmatization, helplessness and identity. Catastrophic experiences include personal violence in domestic circumstances of intimate partner abuse, sexual assault and child physical and sexual abuse. Women's experiences of loss through the violent deaths of children and loved ones may also have such enduring impacts. Terrorism victimizes men and women in this way, with the enduring impacts for women in terms of threat of ongoing attacks as well as acute effects and their aftermath. The catastrophes of war, conflict, genocide, sexual exploitation and refugee status differentially affect large numbers of women, directly and through their concerns for the care of their children and loved ones. Ultimate catastrophes such as Hiroshima and the Holocaust are discussed but with recognition of the very large numbers of women currently experiencing catastrophe in ongoing ways that may be silent and unrecognized. This is significant for clinical care and population impacts, and in the losses for women across such contexts. PMID:18058439

  10. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  11. Sudden stratospheric warmings as catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, W. C.

    1985-01-01

    The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) process is qualitatively studied using a conceptual and numerical approach guided by catastrophe theory. A simple example of a catastrophe taken from nonlinear dynamics is given, and results from previous modelling studies of SSW are interpreted in light of catastrophe theory. Properties of this theory such as hysteresis, cusp, and triggering essential to SSW are numerically demonstrated using the truncated quasi-geostrophic beta-plane model of Holton and Mass (1976). A qualitative explanation of the transition from the steady regime to the vacillation regime is given for the Holton and Mass model in terms of the topographically induced barotropic Rossby wave instability. Some implications for the simulation and prediction of SSW are discussed.

  12. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  13. Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

  14. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mark Scriber

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

  15. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism...

  16. Constructive criterion of catastrophe inevitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A mathematical procedure is proposed for the constructive criteria of nuclear catastrophe inevitability. It was concluded that the procedure can fulfill the objective set, and it allows to make a full formal safety classification of object states. (N.T.). 1 ref., 1 fig

  17. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  18. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  19. Catastrophic events and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

    2010-12-01

    The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

  20. Climate-driven sediment aggradation and incision since the late Pleistocene in the NW Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Saptarshi; Thiede, Rasmus C.; Schildgen, Taylor F.; Wittmann, Hella; Bookhagen, Bodo; Scherler, Dirk; Jain, Vikrant; Strecker, Manfred R.

    2016-09-01

    Deciphering the response of sediment routing systems to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution. In the Kangra Basin (northwest Sub-Himalaya, India), upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 103 to 105 yr. To evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, we compare the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with climate archives. New surface-exposure dating of six terrace levels with in-situ cosmogenic 10Be indicates the onset of incision phases. Two terrace surfaces from the highest level (T1) sculpted into the oldest preserved alluvial fan (AF1) date back to 53.4 ± 3.2 ka and 43.0 ± 2.7 ka (1σ). T2 surfaces sculpted into the remnants of AF1 have exposure ages of 18.6 ± 1.2 ka and 15.3 ± 0.9 ka, while terraces sculpted into the upper Pleistocene-Holocene fan (AF2) provide ages of 9.3 ± 0.4 ka (T3), 7.1 ± 0.4 ka (T4), 5.2 ± 0.4 ka (T5) and 3.6 ± 0.2 ka (T6). Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, we find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon. During periods of increased monsoon intensity and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with incision.

  1. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

    2016-07-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. PMID:26990671

  2. The potential for climate-driven bathymetric range shifts: sustained temperature and pressure exposures on a marine ectotherm, Palaemonetes varians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, J P; Thatje, S; Cottin, D; Oliphant, A; Brown, A; Shillito, B; Ravaux, J; Hauton, C

    2015-11-01

    Range shifts are of great importance as a response for species facing climate change. In the light of current ocean-surface warming, many studies have focused on the capacity of marine ectotherms to shift their ranges latitudinally. Bathymetric range shifts offer an important alternative, and may be the sole option for species already at high latitudes or those within enclosed seas; yet relevant data are scant. Hydrostatic pressure (HP) and temperature have wide ranging effects on physiology, importantly acting in synergy thermodynamically, and therefore represent key environmental constraints to bathymetric migration. We present data on transcriptional regulation in a shallow-water marine crustacean (Palaemonetes varians) at atmospheric and high HP following 168-h exposures at three temperatures across the organisms' thermal scope, to establish the potential physiological limit to bathymetric migration by neritic fauna. We observe changes in gene expression indicative of cellular macromolecular damage, disturbances in metabolic pathways and a lack of acclimation after prolonged exposure to high HP. Importantly, these effects are ameliorated (less deleterious) at higher temperatures, and exacerbated at lower temperatures. These data, alongside previously published behavioural and heat-shock analyses, have important implications for our understanding of the potential for climate-driven bathymetric range shifts. PMID:26716003

  3. A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

  4. The Diseconomies of Environmental Catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2006-01-01

    Four factors are almost certain to lead to one or more catastrophes unless major remedial measures are taken. (1) China has replaced the United States as the world s leading consumer of resources, except for oil (Brown, 2006a), but China is already a major factor in the world market in this area also. Together, China and the United States consume approximately half the world s resources and the global population is still increasing on a finite planet. (2) The over 20% global ecological oversh...

  5. Catastrophic models of materials destruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupchishin, A. I.; Taipova, B. G.; Kupchishin, A. A.; Voronova, N. A.; Kirdyashkin, V. I.; Fursa, T. V.

    2016-02-01

    The effect of concentration and type of fillers on mechanical properties of composite material based on polyimide were studied. Polyethylene terephthalate (PET, polyester), polycarbonate (PCAR) and montmorillonite (MM) were used as the fillers. The samples were prepared by mechanically blending the polyimide-based lacquer solutions with different concentrations of the second component. The concentration of filler and its class, especially their internal structure and technology of synthesis determine features of physical and mechanical properties of obtained materials. Models of catastrophic failure of material satisfactorily describe the main features depending on tension ct from deformation e.

  6. Arctic char - friend or foe?: Climate driven seasonal variation in competitive impact of Arcticchar (Salvelinus alpinus L) on brown trout (Salmo truttaence L)

    OpenAIRE

    Ulvan, Eva Marita

    2010-01-01

    Here I test for climate driven seasonal effects on competition in lakes using brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.) as model organisms. Winter and summer brown trout consumption rates were estimated by 1374 Cs tracer methodology using brown trout sampled in  allopatric (brown trout) and 10 sympatric (brown trout/Arctic char) lakes, located along an altitudinal gradient in central Scandinavia. Lake catchment area  vegetation properties ranged from southern borea...

  7. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according to...... the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  8. Catastrophe mechanism & classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅰ) --Fold catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The mechanism of discontinuity behavior has important significance in the study of thermal science,such as fire,combustion,explosion and heat transfer.This sort of discontinuity behavior and the catastrophe caused by system nonlinearity may be equivalently classified according to the catastrophe model promulgated by catastrophe theory.Under the conditions of uniform temperature and thermal isolation,the self-ignition behavior of a Semenov System can be viewed as a result of the fold catastrophe of the system.

  9. Climate-driven variation in the intensity of a host-symbiont animal interaction along a broad elevation gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Meléndez

    Full Text Available Gradients of environmental stress may affect biotic interactions in unpredictable ways responding to climate variation, depending on the abiotic stress tolerance of interacting partners. Here, we study the effect of local climate on the intensity of feather mites in six mountain passerines along a 1400 m elevational gradient characterized by shifting temperature and rainfall. Although obligatory symbionts of warm-blooded organisms are assumed to live in mild and homeothermic environments, those inhabiting external, non-blood-irrigated body portions of the host organism, such as feather mites, are expected to endure exposure to the direct influence of a fluctuating climate. As expected, feather mite intensity declined with elevation in all bird species, a pattern that was also found in cold-adapted passerines that have typical alpine habits. The elevation cline was mainly explained by a positive effect of the average temperature upon mite intensity in five of the six species studied. Precipitation explained less variance in mite intensity than average temperature, and showed a negative correlation in half of the studied species. We found no climate-driven migration of mites along the wings of birds, no replacement of mite species along elevation gradients and no association with available food resources for mites (estimated by the size of the uropygial gland. This study suggests that ectosymbionts of warm-blooded animals may be highly sensitive to climatic variation and become less abundant under stressful environmental conditions, providing empirical evidence of the decline of specialized biotic interactions among animal species at high elevations.

  10. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

  11. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  12. Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2009-08-01

    While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

  13. Catastrophic disruption experiments: Recent results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martelli, G.; Ryan, E. V.; Nakamura, A. M.; Giblin, I.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the progress in the field of catastrophic disruption experiments over the past 4 years, since the publication of the review paper by Fujiwara et al. (1989). We describe the development of new techniques to produce shattering impacts relevant to the study of the collisional evolution of the asteroids, and summarize the results from numerous experiments which have been performed to date, using a variety of materials for both the impactor and the targets. Some of these, such as ice-on-ice, loose aggregates and pressurized targets, are quite new and have provided novel and exciting results. Some of the gaps existing previously in the data on fragment ejection-angle distributions, as well as translational and rotational velocity fields (including fine fragments) have been filled, and these new results will be surveyed.

  14. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  15. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  16. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  17. Fracto—emissions in Catastrophic Cleavage Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HonglaiTAN; WeiYANG

    1996-01-01

    Fracto-emissions accompanying crack propagation are observed in the recent experiments.The energy impulses during and after fracture stimulate the fracto-emissions.Model concerning atomic scale cleavage processes is proposed to formulate a catastrophic fracure theory relevant to these phenomena.A criterion for catastrophic jump of the cleavage potential is applied to representative crystals.

  18. 76 FR 50929 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-17

    ..., published at 48 FR 29115, June 24, 1983. Executive Order 12988 This proposed rule has been reviewed in...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Federal Crop Insurance Corporation 7 CFR Part 402 RIN 0563-AC31 Catastrophic Risk... Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) proposes to amend the Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  19. Environmental Catastrophes Under Time-inconsistent Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, T.O.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time-in

  20. Catastrophe mechanism and classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅱ) -- Cusp catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The catastrophe mechanisms of thermal performance characteristics of the firebox gas combustion system were analyzed from the viewpoint of catastrophe theory. The mathematical models of cusp catastrophe were established. The relationship between the thermal performance characteristics and the changing of system control variables was studied. The cusp catastrophe mechanisms of typical performance characteristics, such as kicking and lagging, and those of transition from quenching to igniting were explained. It was illustrated that discontinuity behavior of thermal systems with an "S" motion feature curve and lagging feature may be equivalently classified according to the topology of cusp catastrophe, influenced by two groups of independent control variables.

  1. Quantum catastrophes: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znojil, Miloslav

    2012-11-01

    The bound-state spectrum of a Hamiltonian H is assumed real in a non-empty domain D of physical values of parameters. This means that for these parameters, H may be called crypto-Hermitian, i.e. made Hermitian via an ad hoc choice of the inner product in the physical Hilbert space of quantum bound states (i.e. via an ad hoc construction of the operator Θ called the metric). The name quantum catastrophe is then assigned to the N-tuple-exceptional-point crossing, i.e. to the scenario in which we leave the domain D along such a path that at the boundary of D, an N-plet of bound-state energies degenerates and, subsequently, complexifies. At any fixed N ⩾ 2, this process is simulated via an N × N benchmark effective matrix Hamiltonian H. It is being assigned such a closed-form metric which is made unique via an N-extrapolation-friendliness requirement. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’.

  2. Quantum catastrophes: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The bound-state spectrum of a Hamiltonian H is assumed real in a non-empty domain D of physical values of parameters. This means that for these parameters, H may be called crypto-Hermitian, i.e. made Hermitian via an ad hoc choice of the inner product in the physical Hilbert space of quantum bound states (i.e. via an ad hoc construction of the operator Θ called the metric). The name quantum catastrophe is then assigned to the N-tuple-exceptional-point crossing, i.e. to the scenario in which we leave the domain D along such a path that at the boundary of D, an N-plet of bound-state energies degenerates and, subsequently, complexifies. At any fixed N ⩾ 2, this process is simulated via an N × N benchmark effective matrix Hamiltonian H. It is being assigned such a closed-form metric which is made unique via an N-extrapolation-friendliness requirement. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’. (paper)

  3. A story of transformation following catastrophic loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rateau, Margaret R

    2010-08-01

    The emotional impact following catastrophic loss is a highly individualized and personal experience. Such an experience may be life transforming and can significantly influence the course of one's emotional recovery. Through the gathering of story, a clearer understanding of the transformational experience may lead to more appropriate mental health support for those most in need. The purposes of this article are to share the author's 4-year autobiographical story following catastrophic loss from a house explosion and fire, to discuss the transpersonal perspective on transformation, and to offer the use of story for practice and research applications for persons experiencing catastrophic loss. PMID:20650371

  4. Insuring catastrophes and the role of governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, M. M.; Nyce, C. M.

    2013-08-01

    In this paper we model the cost of providing insurance coverage against natural and man-made hazards. We propose an insurance market model that explains (1) the use of reinsurance to help finance the cost of catastrophic events and (2) the implicit (or explicit) presence of government entities acting as (re)insurers of last resort. Using an economic model, we show how insurance programmes should be designed to cover the losses due to a possible catastrophic natural hazard. Our results show that the optimal structure of a reinsurance programme minimizes the cost of offering insurance protection. We also show how government intervention can reduce the cost of insurance against natural catastrophes and increase policyholders' welfare. Our paper therefore offers public policy implications as to the role and presence of government as an insurer of last resort and the minimum insurance premium necessary to cover the cost of catastrophic events.

  5. Catastrophes in Scale-Free Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; WANG Bing-Hong

    2005-01-01

    @@ An alternative model about cascading occurrences caused by perturbation is established to search the mechanism because catastrophes in networks occur. We investigate the avalanche dynamics of our model on two-dimensional Euclidean lattices and scale-free networks and find that the avalanche dynamic behaviour is sensitive to the topological structure of networks. The simulation results show that the catastrophes occur much more frequently in scale-free networks than those in Euclidean lattices, and the greatest catastrophe in scale-free networks is much more serious than that in Euclidean lattices. Furthermore, we have studied how to reduce the catastrophes'degree, and have schemed out an effective strategy, called the targeted safeguard strategy for scale-free networks.

  6. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  7. Insuring catastrophes and the role of governments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Boyer

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we model the cost of providing insurance coverage against natural and man-made hazards. We propose an insurance market model that explains (1 the use of reinsurance to help finance the cost of catastrophic events and (2 the implicit (or explicit presence of government entities acting as (reinsurers of last resort. Using an economic model, we show how insurance programmes should be designed to cover the losses due to a possible catastrophic natural hazard. Our results show that the optimal structure of a reinsurance programme minimizes the cost of offering insurance protection. We also show how government intervention can reduce the cost of insurance against natural catastrophes and increase policyholders' welfare. Our paper therefore offers public policy implications as to the role and presence of government as an insurer of last resort and the minimum insurance premium necessary to cover the cost of catastrophic events.

  8. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    probability distributions relating to available experimental data are derived. Caps are found to be short and the total rate of hydrolysis at a microtubule end is found to be dynamically coupled to growth. The so-called catastrophe rate is a simple function of the microtubule growth rare and fits experimental...... data. A constant nonzero catastrophe rare, identical for both microtubule ends, is predicted at large growth rates. The delay time for dilution-induced catastrophes is stochastic with a simple distribution that fits the experimental one and, like the experimental one, does not depend on the rate of...... unified description of several apparently contradictory experimental data. Experimental results for the catastrophe rate at different concentrations of magnesium ions and of microtubule associated proteins are discussed in terms of the model. Feasible experiments are suggested that can provide decisive...

  9. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Jian Liu; Jihong Xiao; Lizhao Yan; Fenghua Wen

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property C...

  10. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  11. Mindfulness, Acceptance and Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain

    OpenAIRE

    de Boer, Maaike J.; Steinhagen, Hannemike E.; Versteegen, Gerbrig J.; Struys, Michel M.R.F.; Sanderman, Robbert

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chr...

  12. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    OpenAIRE

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P J; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform disorders and chronic fatigue syndrome, pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs were found to be related to perceived disability and prognosis. Furthermore, it has been argued with respect to whiplash t...

  13. The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck; Neng Wang

    2013-01-01

    How likely is a catastrophic event that would substantially reduce the capital stock, GDP, and wealth? How much should society be willing to pay to reduce the probability or impact of a catastrophe? We answer these questions and provide a framework for policy analysis using a general equilibrium model of production, capital accumulation, and household preferences. Calibrating the model to economic and financial data, we estimate the mean arrival rate of shocks and their size distribution, the...

  14. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  15. 22 CFR 71.7 - Reports on catastrophes abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reports on catastrophes abroad. 71.7 Section 71... catastrophes abroad. Whenever a great catastrophe occurs abroad, either on land or on sea, the officer within whose district the catastrophe takes place or into whose district the survivors are brought shall...

  16. Research on catastrophe control in 1-D system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Yao; TANG Li-ping; LI Xue-lian

    2003-01-01

    A new method of catastrophe control is described in one dimension nonlinear system. Catastrophe control based on catastrophe theory is a brand new area for control theory. A certain catastrophe is created at a desired location by appropriate control, which has preferred properties. Washout filter is presented and applied to preserve the original equilibrium of a system. Washout filter aided dynamic feedback controller is developed for the creation of catastrophe, and an example is given to illustrate the process. Catastrophe control may provide a new way of designing warning signals of impending collapse or catastrophe for monitoring and control purposes.

  17. Pricing for Catastrophe Bonds Based on Expected-value Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfei Chen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available As the catastrophes cannot be avoided and result in huge economic losses, therefore the compensation issue for catastrophe losses become an important research topic. Catastrophe bonds can effectively disperse the catastrophe risks which mainly undertaken by the government and the insurance companies currently and focus on capital more effectively in broad capital market, therefore to be an ideal catastrophe securities product. This study adopts Expectancy Theory to supplement and improve the pricing of catastrophe bonds based on Value Theory. A model of expected utility is established to determine the conditions of the expected revenue R of catastrophe bonds. The pricing model of the value function is used to get the psychological value of R,U (R-R‾, for catastrophe bonds. Finally, the psychological value is improved by the value according to expected utility and this can more accurately evaluate catastrophe bonds at a reasonable price. This research can provide decision-making for the pricing of catastrophe bonds.

  18. Downward Catastrophe of Solar Magnetic Flux Ropes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-07-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  19. Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michielsen, T.

    2013-02-15

    I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

  20. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    nuclear opposition. Economical basis of nuclear energy stagnation is in not very successful competition of nuclear engineering with fossil energy production technologies. Much money has been spent for improvement of safety of NPPs. Social roots of the opposition are linked with a bad experience of the public with demonstration of the nuclear energy- The explosion of atomic bombs, some contamination of the territories after nuclear arm tests, misfortunes with TMI-2 and Chernobyl have created a stable enmity and non-acceptance of the all connected with 'atom'. The mass media have strongly promoted the dissemination of the fear of radiation exposures. There is also an influence on that attitude the radiation protection regulation via the declaration of the linear no-threshold dependence of the radiation detriments and dose of exposure. Such concept ignores the adoptive features of all living. But modem studies have showed that protracted irradiation at the same dose is much less dangerous compared with sharp one. It could change public attitude to nuclear energy in the society. Role of nuclear communication for public informing: The reactions of public on various technological and man-made events differ significantly and are being determined not scales of catastrophes but the mental impression and a multiplication of psychological stresses in the society by mass -media. In present situation a nuclear community has to improve the contacts with the pubic, to launch more effective campaign for explanation of real adventures of nuclear power. It needs to compare the risks of climate warming and health detriments from different electricity production technologies and to show that nuclear power is a single alternative all fossil burning techniques of electricity production. It's the truth the nuclear power is a real method of fight for suppression of emission the greenhouse gases, isn't it? (author)

  1. Household catastrophic health expenditure: evidence from Georgia and its policy implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoidze Akaki

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To quantify extent of catastrophic household health expenditures, determine factors influencing it and estimate Fairness in Financial Contribution (FFC index in Georgia to establish the baseline for expected reforms and contribute to the design and fine-tuning of the major reforms in health care financing initiated by the government mid-2007. Methods The research is based on the nationally representative Health Care Utilization and Expenditure survey conducted during May-June 2007, prior to preparing for new phase of implementation for the health care financing reforms. Households' catastrophic health expenditures were estimated according to the methodology proposed by WHO – Ke Xu 1. A logistic regression (logit model was used to predict probability of catastrophic health expenditure occurrence. Results In Georgia between 2000 and 2007 access to care for poor has improved slightly and the share of households facing catastrophic health expenditures have seemingly increased from 2.8% in 1999 to 11.7% in 2007. However, this variance may be associated with the methodological differences of the respective surveys from which the analysis were derived. The high level of the catastrophic health expenditure may be associated with the low share of prepayment in national health expenditure, adequate availability of services and a high level of poverty in the country. Major factors determining the financial catastrophe related to ill health were hospitalization, household members with chronic illness and poverty status of the household. The FFC for Georgia appears to have improved since 2004. Conclusion Reducing the prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure is a policy objective of the government, which can be achieved by focusing on increased financial protection offered to poor and expanding government financed benefits for poor and chronically ill by including and expanding inpatient coverage and adding drug benefits. This

  2. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  3. Consistent climate-driven spatial patterns of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes in the northern hemisphere: a theoretical framework and synthesis of empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, G.; Niu, S.; Chen, Z.; Zhu, X.

    2013-12-01

    A predictive understanding of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes has been developed slowly, largely owing to lack of broad generalizations and a theoretical framework as well as clearly defined hypotheses. We synthesized Eddy flux data in different regions of northern hemisphere and previously published papers, then developed a framework for the climate controls on the geoecological patterns of terrestrial ecosystem C fluxes, and proposed the underlying mechanisms. Based on the case studies and synthesis, we found that the spatial patterns of ecosystem C fluxes in China, Asia, three continents of the northern hemisphere all had general patterns: predominately controlled by temperature and precipitation, supporting and further developing the traditional theory of 'climate controls on the spatial patterns of ecosystem productivity' in Miami and other models. Five hypotheses were proposed to explain the ecological mechanisms and processes that attribute to the climate-driven spatial patterns of C fluxes. (1) Two key processes determining gross primary productivity (GPP), i.e. growing season length and carbon uptake capacity, are jointly controlled by temperature and precipitation; (2) Ecosystem respiration (ER) is predominately determined also by temperature and precipitation, as well as substrate supply; (3) Components of ecosystem C fluxes are closely coupled with each other in response to climate change; (4) Vegetation types and soil nutrients in particular area are fundamentally determined by environmental factors, which may impact C fluxes within a certain range, but couldn't change the climate-driven pattern of C fluxes at large scale, (5) Land use only changes the magnitude of C fluxes, but doesn't change the spatial patterns and their climate dependence. All of these hypotheses were well validated by the evidences of data synthesis, which could provide the foundation for a theoretical framework for better understanding and predicting geoecological

  4. Linking scientists, decision makers, and organizations to improve understanding of climate-driven changes in coastal storms and their impacts in Western Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, J. H.; Murphy, K.

    2012-12-01

    The coastal zones of Western Alaska are expected to experience a nexus of climate-driven changes in landform processes resulting from the impacts of sea ice loss; sea level change; permafrost thaw; and changes in frequency, intensity, and direction of coastal storms, etc. These climate-driven changes will cascade through the near-shore and coastal physical systems, ecological systems, and human communities, and thus present major sources of uncertainty for a wide variety of the region's decision makers. To effectively and efficiently address some of the information needs of these decision makers, the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative created a two-year program of applied science focused on 'Changes in Coastal Storms and their Impacts'. We summarize program components that successfully advanced applied science to address these decision maker information needs. All the components share a common feature of promoting linkages: (i) among resource decision makers, stakeholders and scientists, to identify and address key areas of uncertainty associated with coastal storms and thus align the science activities with decision maker needs for a variety of climate vulnerability assessments; (ii) among researchers, to mutually advance their science efforts; and (iii) among organizations, to efficiently address shared science needs. Resulting applied science benefits include (i) integrative projects using very fine resolution surge modeling to assess impacts of saltwater inundation on migratory waterfowl breeding populations and habitat; (ii) coordinating the selection of historic storms for reanalysis by two surge modeling efforts of differing resolution and domain, thus allowing for cross-model comparisons of performance over their shared spatial domain and future regional-scale application of the higher resolution model; and (iii) collaborative, cross-agency efforts to establish a water level network that meets multiple purposes (from model calibration to

  5. Differentiating between Land Use and Climate-driven Change using Long-term Vegetation Index Trends adjusted for Precipitation on the Mongolian Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, R.; Chen, J.; Kim, Y.; Yang, Z.; Xiao, J.; Shao, C.; Batkhishig, O.

    2014-12-01

    The Mongolian plateau is undergoing consistent warming in addition to an increase in extreme climatic events. Land cover/land use change has accelerated over the past three decades, owing to post liberalization socio-economic changes in Inner Mongolia, China (IM) Mongolia (MG) which have different political systems. Extensive anthropomorphic modifications of ecosystems have the ability to alter the structure and function of ecosystems and ecological processes such as the carbon and water cycle and it is therefore important to differentiate between such changes from climate-driven changes. This study identified climate-driven and human-induced changes in vegetation cover on the Mongolian plateau across desert, grassland and forest biomes as well as administrative divisions. We applied non-parametric trend tests on time series of vegetation index datasets that include MODIS EVI, Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) EVI2, and GIMMS 3g as well as precipitation and temperature obtained from TRMM and MERRA reanalysis datasets. We then correlated the VI trends with the climate drivers to determine and isolate primary climate drivers. VI residuals obtained from the regression of composites of peak season maximum VI and JJA monthly accumulated rainfall were analyzed for detection of trends in vegetation greenness not explained by rainfall dynamics over different time periods (2000-2012, and 1981 to 2010). In addition, we obtained trends in socioeconomic variables like total livestock and population density which were closely correlated with VI residual trends adjusted for rainfall. Some administrative subdivisions in IM and MG showed a decreasing trend in residuals that could be attributed to anthropogenic activity such as grazing, or urbanization, while other subdivisions showed an increasing trend in residuals increasing trend in residuals suggest that vegetation cover has improved and perhaps be attributed to restoration and conservation efforts.

  6. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun;

    2011-01-01

    Many parts of India are prone to natural disasters, particularly caused by earthquakes and floods because of its geographical location. The Catastrophic areas can be rural, remote or urban anywhere in the world. It has been understood that earthquakes directly do not cause causalities but instead...

  7. 78 FR 52832 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-27

    .... See the Notice related to 7 CFR part 3015, subpart V, published at 48 FR 29115, June 24, 1983... the Federal Register at 76 FR 50929-50931. The public was afforded 60 days to submit written comments... Federal Crop Insurance Corporation 7 CFR Part 402 RIN 0563-AC31 Catastrophic Risk Protection...

  8. INCORPORATING CATASTROPHES INTO INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT: SCIENCE, IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes,...

  9. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  10. CATASTROPHE FRACTURE OF THIN-WALL PRESSURE TUBES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏德敏; 杨桂通

    2002-01-01

    Catastrophe theory was used to investigate the fracture behavior of thin-wall cylindrical tubes subjected to nternal explosive pressure. Based on the energy theory and catastrophe theory, a cusp catastrophe model for the fracture was established, and a critical condition associated with the model is given.

  11. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M V [H H Wills Physics Laboratory, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL (United Kingdom); Howls, C J [School of Mathematics, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)

    2010-09-17

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X{sub 9} diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  12. Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

    2009-01-01

    As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

  13. On Catastrophe and Cavitation for Spherical Cavity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MingJIN; KefuHUANG; 等

    1999-01-01

    This work deals with catastrophe of a spherical cavity and cavitation of a spherical cavity for Hooke material with 1/2 Poisson's ratio.A nonlinear problem.which is the Cauchy traction problem,is solved analytically.The governing equations are written on the deformed region or on the present configuration.And the conditions are described on moving boundary.A closed form solution is found.Furthermore,a bifurcation solution in closed form is given from the trivial homogeneous solution of a solid sphere.The results indicate that there is a tangent bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a sphere with a cavity.On the tangent bifurcation point,the cavity grows up suddenly,which is a kind of catastrophe,And there is a pitchfork bifurcation on the displacement-load curve for a solid sphere.On the pitchfork bifurcation point.there is a cavitation in the solid sphere.

  14. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    An effective theory is formulated for the dynamics of the guanosine triphosphate (GTP) cap believed to stabilize growing microtubules. The theory provides a ''coarse-grained'' description of the cap's dynamics. ''Microscopic'' details, such as the microtubule lattice structure and the fate of its...... data. A constant nonzero catastrophe rare, identical for both microtubule ends, is predicted at large growth rates. The delay time for dilution-induced catastrophes is stochastic with a simple distribution that fits the experimental one and, like the experimental one, does not depend on the rate of....... A recent experimental result for the size of the minimal cap that can stabilize a microtubule is shown to agree with the result predicted by the cap model, after its parameters have been extracted from previous experimental results. Thus the effective theory and cap model presented here provide a...

  15. Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

  16. Valuing Catastrophic Losses for Perennial Agricultural Crops

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Damian C.; Kilmer, Richard L.; Moss, Charles B.; Schmitz, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Courts are often required to estimate changes in welfare to agricultural operations from catastrophic events. For example, courts must assign damages in lawsuits, such as with pesticide drift cases, or determine 'just compensation' when the government takes private land for public use, as with the removal of dairy farms from environmentally sensitive land or destruction of canker-contaminated citrus trees. In economics, the traditional method of estimating changes in producer welfare is the c...

  17. Catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment in Mongolia

    OpenAIRE

    Dorjdagva, Javkhlanbayar; Batbaatar, Enkhjargal; Svensson, Mikael; Dorjsuren, Bayarsaikhan; Kauhanen, Jussi

    2016-01-01

    Background The social health insurance coverage is relatively high in Mongolia; however, escalation of out-of-pocket payments for health care, which reached 41 % of the total health expenditure in 2011, is a policy concern. The aim of this study is to analyse the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures and to measure the rate of impoverishment from health care payments under the social health insurance scheme in Mongolia. Methods We used the data from the Household Socio-Economic Survey...

  18. Recent catastrophic landslides and mitigation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events such as heavy rainfall,snowline retreating,great earthquake together with human activities,catastrophic landslides happened more frequently than before,resulting in large-scale casualties due to the increasing occurrences of rapid long-runout rock avalanches,especially in China.This paper present...

  19. Catastrophic Consequences of Kicking the Chameleon

    OpenAIRE

    Erickcek, Adrienne L.; Barnaby, Neil; Burrage, Clare; Huang, Zhiqi

    2013-01-01

    The physics of the "dark energy" that drives the current cosmological acceleration remains mysterious, and the dark sector may involve new light dynamical fields. If these light scalars couple to matter, a screening mechanism must prevent them from mediating an unacceptably strong fifth force locally. Here we consider a concrete example: the chameleon mechanism. We show that the same coupling between the chameleon field and matter employed by the screening mechanism also has catastrophic cons...

  20. Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cavallo, Eduardo; Galiani, Sebastian; Noy, Ilan; Pantano, Juan

    2010-01-01

    We examine the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. We assess the counterfactual of the cases studied by constructing synthetic control groups taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output both in the short and long run. However, we also show that thi...

  1. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  2. Paleomagnetic study of the Tunguska catastrophe epicenter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gladysheva, O. G.; Popov, V. V.

    2016-03-01

    The Tunguska catastrophe occurred in the area of the East Siberian magnetic anomaly on June 30, 1908. The epicenter of the explosive destruction of the Tunguska cosmic body (TCB) was above the central neck of a paleovolcano (Mt. Stoikovich). According to the paleomagnetic data available, the bedrocks on the top of Mt. Stoikovich carry remanent magnetization, which is substantially higher than that in rocks from neighboring mountains. Analysis of the results of paleomagnetic measurements of rock samples collected in the vicinity of the Tunguska catastrophe epicenter showed that the destruction of the cosmic body was accompanied by the formation of multidirectional magnetic fields, which provide disturbances spreading over a distance of 25 km from the epicenter. The chaotic distribution pattern of magnetization vectors measured in the soil in the vicinity of the Tunguska catastrophe epicenter confirms the previously expressed assumption that destruction of the TCB was accompanied with multiple discharges. According to this, we can conclude that the matter of the Tunguska cosmic body was dispersed around the epicenter in a zone approximately 25 km in diameter.

  3. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  4. Catastrophic fragmentation of asteroids: Evidence from meteorites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keil, K.; Haack, H.; Scott, E. R. D.

    1994-01-01

    Meteorites are impact-derived fragments from approximately 85 parent bodies. For seven of these bodies, the meteorites record evidence suggesting that they may have been catastrophically fragmented. We identify three types of catastrophic events: (1) impact and reassemble events greater than 4.4 Gy ago, involving molten or very hot parent bodies (greater than 1200 C); this affected the parent bodies of the ureilites, Shallowater, and the mesosiderites. In each case, the fragments cooled rapidly (approximately 1-1000 C/day) and then reassembled. (2) Later impacts involving cold bodies which, in some cases, reassembled; this occurred on the H and L ordinary chondrite parent bodies. The L parent body probably suffered another catastrophic event about 500 My ago. (3) Recent impacts of cold, multi-kilometer-sized bodies that generated meter-sized meteoroids; this occurred on the parent bodies of the IIIAB irons (650 My ago), the IVA irons (400 My ago), and the H ordinary chondrite (7 My ago).

  5. Downward catastrophe of solar magnetic flux ropes

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Quanhao; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5D time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free. The system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Secondly, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by a jump of a solution from the u...

  6. Glacial climate driven sedimentation overwhelms tectonics in the battle for control of margin architecture: Southeast Alaska, St. Elias Orogeny

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulick, S. P.; Jaeger, J. M.; Willems, B.; Powell, R. D.; Lowe, L. A.

    2006-12-01

    The interplay of tectonic and climatic processes is fundamental to the development of mountain belts and the ensuing patterns of deformation and erosion. Of equal significance is the interaction of tectonic and climatic processes in the development of orogenic sedimentary basins, or in the case of a coastal mountain belt, in the growth of a continental margin. The Chugach-St. Elias Orogeny, which is driven by the collision of the Yakutat microplate with North America in southeast Alaska, has generated the highest coastal relief in the world. The combined forces of tectonic uplift and glacial erosion have resulted in the accumulation of over 5 km of sediment to form the continental shelf and the creation of the Surveyor Fan that is over 2 km thick proximally. High-resolution GI-gun seismic data allow for detailed examination of the margin architecture off the Bering Glacier within the leading edge of the Yakutat block. The deformation and growth of the margin appears to have first undergone a tectonically dominated phase followed more recently by a glacially dominated phase. During the tectonically dominated period a broad anticline-syncline system helped create accommodation space and the margin both shallowed and widened to its current 50 km width. Based on ties with industry well cuttings, the dominance switched sometime between 0.75 and 1.25 Ma to being completely controlled by glacial advance-retreat patterns. The mappable glacial sequences are undeformed by the underlying anticlines and display several notable features: 1) erosional bases that can often be mapped across the entire shelf, terminating at the shelf edge, 2) little evidence for terminal or retreat moraines on the shelf suggesting very rapid and single phase retreat of the glacier, 3) incomplete glacial sequences due to erosion by later advances, and 4) minimal creation of accommodation space. We investigate the cause of the switch to glacial dominance, the mechanisms and causes of the potentially

  7. Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Marcello A.; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P.

    2015-11-01

    Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell’Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

  8. Climate-driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, J; Serrão, E A; Claro, B; Perrin, C; Pearson, G A

    2014-06-01

    The climate-driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intraspecific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographical distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) during past extremes, present time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of persistence, extinction and expansion during glacial and postglacial periods. These explained the distribution and structure of present genetic diversity, consisting of differentiated genetic pools with maximal diversity in areas of long-term persistence. Most of the present species range comprises postglacial expansion zones and, in contrast to highly dispersive marine organisms, expansions involved only local fronts, leaving distinct genetic pools at rear edges. Besides unravelling a complex phylogeographical history and showing congruence between genetic diversity and persistent distribution zones, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism, range shifts and loss of unique genetic diversity at the rear edge were predicted for future climate scenarios, impoverishing the global gene pool. PMID:24766057

  9. RPF101, a new capsaicin-like analogue, disrupts the microtubule network accompanied by arrest in the G2/M phase, inducing apoptosis and mitotic catastrophe in the MCF-7 breast cancer cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sá-Júnior, Paulo Luiz de [Laboratory of Genetics, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Pasqualoto, Kerly Fernanda Mesquita [Biochemistry and Biophysical Laboratory, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Ferreira, Adilson Kleber [Laboratory of Genetics, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Tavares, Maurício Temotheo; Damião, Mariana Celestina Frojuello Costa Bernstorff [Department of Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Prof. Lineu Prestes Avenue, 580, Postal Code: 05508-000, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Azevedo, Ricardo Alexandre de [Biochemistry and Biophysical Laboratory, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Câmara, Diana Aparecida Dias; Pereira, Alexandre; Madeiro de Souza, Dener [Laboratory of Genetics, Butantan Institute, Vital Brasil Avenue 1500, Postal Code: 05503-900, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Parise Filho, Roberto, E-mail: roberto.parise@usp.br [Department of Pharmacy, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Prof. Lineu Prestes Avenue, 580, Postal Code: 05508-000, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2013-02-01

    Breast cancer is the world's leading cause of death among women. This situation imposes an urgent development of more selective and less toxic agents. The use of natural molecular fingerprints as sources for new bioactive chemical entities has proven to be a quite promising and efficient method. Capsaicin, which is the primary pungent compound in red peppers, was reported to selectively inhibit the growth of a variety tumor cell lines. Here, we report for the first time a novel synthetic capsaicin-like analogue, RPF101, which presents a high antitumor activity on MCF-7 cell line, inducing arrest of the cell cycle at the G2/M phase through a disruption of the microtubule network. Furthermore, it causes cellular morphologic changes characteristic of apoptosis and a decrease of Δψm. Molecular modeling studies corroborated the biological findings and suggested that RPF101, besides being a more reactive molecule towards its target, may also present a better pharmacokinetic profile than capsaicin. All these findings support the fact that RPF101 is a promising anticancer agent. -- Highlights: ► We report for the first time that RPF101 possesses anticancer properties. ► RPF101 induces apoptosis of human breast cancer cells. ► RPF 101 decreases mitochondrial potential and induces DNA fragmentation.

  10. RPF101, a new capsaicin-like analogue, disrupts the microtubule network accompanied by arrest in the G2/M phase, inducing apoptosis and mitotic catastrophe in the MCF-7 breast cancer cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breast cancer is the world's leading cause of death among women. This situation imposes an urgent development of more selective and less toxic agents. The use of natural molecular fingerprints as sources for new bioactive chemical entities has proven to be a quite promising and efficient method. Capsaicin, which is the primary pungent compound in red peppers, was reported to selectively inhibit the growth of a variety tumor cell lines. Here, we report for the first time a novel synthetic capsaicin-like analogue, RPF101, which presents a high antitumor activity on MCF-7 cell line, inducing arrest of the cell cycle at the G2/M phase through a disruption of the microtubule network. Furthermore, it causes cellular morphologic changes characteristic of apoptosis and a decrease of Δψm. Molecular modeling studies corroborated the biological findings and suggested that RPF101, besides being a more reactive molecule towards its target, may also present a better pharmacokinetic profile than capsaicin. All these findings support the fact that RPF101 is a promising anticancer agent. -- Highlights: ► We report for the first time that RPF101 possesses anticancer properties. ► RPF101 induces apoptosis of human breast cancer cells. ► RPF 101 decreases mitochondrial potential and induces DNA fragmentation.

  11. Catastrophic Fires in the Russian Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhinin, A. I.; Soja, A. J.; McRae, D. J.; Cahoon, D. R.; Stocks, B. J.; Dubrovskaya, O. A.; Ji-Zhong, J.; Flannigan, M.; DeGroot, B.; Westberg, D.; Stackhouse, P. W.; Conard, S. G.; Hao, W. M.

    2011-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the severity of wildfires and the implications for carbon emissions in the boreal zone are globally significant because Russia contains two-thirds of the world's boreal forest and peat lands. Wildfires in Russia burn from 2 to 20 million ha annually, depending on burning conditions, yet quantification of trends in fire patterns is hampered by the lack of accurate historic fire data. Official Russian wildfire records greatly underestimate burned areas. However, satellite data for Russia have become easily available for assessing area burned since 1980, and we are in the process of analyzing these data to map historic burned area and fire patterns. Catastrophic fire refers to large, uncontrollable fires that are associated with extreme weather conditions. In Russia, major catastrophic fire events are associated with stable anticyclonic systems, which lead to severe drought that supports extreme fire behavior. These forest fires result in large areas burned and high consumption of vegetation and organic soil horizons. Additionally, thick smoke can reduce visibility, which often paralyzes suppression efforts. In recent years, there have been several large and often economically devastating fire complexes across Russia (European Russia, Tyva, Sakha, Chita and the Far East). We present evidence of the association of these large fires with very high or extreme fire weather danger. We assert that these large fire systems have increased in severity in response to current changes in weather and climate, and we argue that catastrophic fires are likely to increase in the future, as climate warms in the northern hemisphere upper latitudes of Russia.

  12. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals: stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that m

  13. Catastrophizing and Parental Response to Child Symptom Complaints

    OpenAIRE

    Langer, Shelby L.; Romano, Joan M.; Levy, Rona L; Walker, Lynn S.; Whitehead, William E.

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated whether catastrophic thinking about pain by children with functional abdominal pain or by their parents is associated with health outcomes in the child. Subjects were 132 parent-child dyads. Child catastrophizing predicted child depression, anxiety and functional disability. Parents’ catastrophizing cognitions about their own pain predicted self-reported protective responses to their children’s abdominal pain (responding in ways that encourage illness behavior). Protec...

  14. Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Ian; Pindyck, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    How should we evaluate public policies or projects to avert, or reduce the likelihood of, a catastrophic event? Examples might include inspection and surveillance programs to avert nuclear terrorism, investments in vaccine technologies to help respond to a "mega-virus," or the construction of levees to avert major flooding. A policy to avert a particular catastrophe considered in isolation might be evaluated in a cost-benefit framework. But because society faces multiple potential catastrophe...

  15. Mutation accumulation and the catastrophic senescence of Pacific salmon

    CERN Document Server

    Penna, T J P; Stauffer, D; Stauffer, Dietrich

    1995-01-01

    The bit-string model of biological aging is used to simulate the catastrophic senescence of Pacific Salmon. We have shown that reproduction occuring only once and at a fixed age is the only ingredient needed to explain the catastrophic senescence according the mutation accumulation theory. Several results are presented, some of them with up to 10^8 fishes, showing how the survival rates in catastrophic senescence are affected by changes in the parameters of the model.

  16. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  17. Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D.; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J.

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency. PMID:25136959

  18. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency. PMID:25136959

  19. Gradient catastrophe and flutter in vortex filament dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Konopelchenko, B G

    2011-01-01

    Gradient catastrophe and flutter instability in the motion of vortex filament within the localized induction approximation are analyzed. It is shown that the origin if this phenomenon is in the gradient catastrophe for the dispersionless Da Rios system which describes motion of filament with slow varying curvature and torsion. Geometrically this catastrophe manifests as a rapid oscillation of a filament curve in a point that resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painlev\\'e-I equation.

  20. Gradient catastrophe and flutter in vortex filament dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gradient catastrophe and flutter instability in the motion of a vortex filament within the localized induction approximation are analyzed. It is shown that the origin of this phenomenon is in the gradient catastrophe for the dispersionless Da Rios system which describes the motion of a filament with slow varying curvature and torsion. Geometrically, this catastrophe manifests as a rapid oscillation of a filament curve in a point that resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically, it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painleve-I equation. (fast track communication)

  1. Gradient catastrophe and flutter in vortex filament dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konopelchenko, B G [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita del Salento and INFN, Sezione di Lecce, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Ortenzi, G, E-mail: giovanni.ortenzi@unimib.it [Dipartimento di Matematica Pura ed Applicazioni, Universita di Milano Bicocca, 20125 Milano (Italy)

    2011-10-28

    Gradient catastrophe and flutter instability in the motion of a vortex filament within the localized induction approximation are analyzed. It is shown that the origin of this phenomenon is in the gradient catastrophe for the dispersionless Da Rios system which describes the motion of a filament with slow varying curvature and torsion. Geometrically, this catastrophe manifests as a rapid oscillation of a filament curve in a point that resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically, it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painleve-I equation. (fast track communication)

  2. Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Deqin; Zhu, Wenquan; Zheng, Zhoutao; Zhang, Donghai; Pan, Yaozhong; Jiang, Nan; Zhou, Xiafei

    2015-01-01

    The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years). In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April) in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May) in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1) from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate. PMID:26098358

  3. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  4. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  5. Corporate Demand for Insurance: An Empirical Analysis of the U.S. Market for Catastrophe and Non-Catastrophe Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Raschky, Paul A.; Kunreuther, Howard C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper tests some existing theories developed over the past 25 years on corporate demand for insurance. Using a unique dataset of 1,809 large U.S. corporations it provides the first empirical analysis that compares corporate demand for standard property insurance and for catastrophe coverage (here, terrorism). We find that larger companies are more likely to have some catastrophe coverage. Corporate demand for catastrophe insurance is found to be more price inelastic than insurance for no...

  6. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  7. Catastrophic Consequences of Kicking the Chameleon

    CERN Document Server

    Erickcek, Adrienne L; Burrage, Clare; Huang, Zhiqi

    2013-01-01

    The physics of the "dark energy" that drives the current cosmological acceleration remains mysterious, and the dark sector may involve new light dynamical fields. If these light scalars couple to matter, a screening mechanism must prevent them from mediating an unacceptably strong fifth force locally. Here we consider a concrete example: the chameleon mechanism. We show that the same coupling between the chameleon field and matter employed by the screening mechanism also has catastrophic consequences for the chameleon during the Universe's first minutes. The chameleon couples to the trace of the stress-energy tensor, which is temporarily non-zero in a radiation-dominated universe whenever a particle species becomes non-relativistic. These "kicks" impart a significant velocity to the chameleon field, causing its effective mass to vary non-adiabatically and resulting in the copious production of quantum fluctuations. Dissipative effects strongly modify the background evolution of the chameleon field, invalidati...

  8. Experiments on Mixotrophic Protists and Catastrophic Darkness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harriet; Cockell, Charles S.; Goodson, Claire; Price, Nicola; Simpson, Annika; Thomas, Benjamin

    2009-08-01

    Catastrophically darkened photic zone conditions in water bodies are postulated to be induced by a diversity of mechanisms that are recorded in the geological record, including asteroid and comet impacts and large-scale volcanic eruptions. Giant wildfires, such as those that followed the great fires in Siberia in 1915, have been directly shown to cause large reductions in sunlight penetrating to the ground. Previous studies on the response of phototrophs to s udden prolonged darkness have focused on the survival of axenic strains. In this paper, we describe laboratory experiments to investigate the survival and growth of isolated and mixed cultures of freshwater and marine mixotrophs after 6 months of darkness and in the low light that would follow these events. Mixotrophs could survive 6 months of darkness. Some species used dissolved organic carbon, which can be released from dead biomass after loss of light and was shown to improve feeding rates. Mixotrophs also improved the survival and subsequent growth of obligate phototrophs at low light levels when grown in mixed cultures. The ability of mixotrophs to switch from photosynthesis to heterotrophy following sudden darkening would not only allow them to survive but to grow and contribute to active food chains. The experiments suggest that, following the return of light, resumption of photosynthesis can be rapid. These experiments improve our understanding of the collapse of photosynthesis following catastrophic darkening and emphasize the important role of mixotrophy in the resilience of the photosynthetic biosphere during such periods. We speculate on the implications for the Cretaceous-Tertiary impact event and periods of global freezing.

  9. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the “real” world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be “tools” rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a “both–and” rather than an “either–or” approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may

  10. Determinants of Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Ramezanian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households’ payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately.Method: This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households’ expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households’ expenditure surveys was applied.Results: The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households’ socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution.Conclusion: While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness

  11. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain housing market crashes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Diks; J. Wang

    2016-01-01

    Like stock market prices, housing prices often exhibit temporary booms and busts. A possible explanation for the observed abrupt changes is offered by the stochastic catastrophe model. This paper addresses the question whether the catastrophe model can describe and predict the dynamics of housing ma

  12. Wave dislocations in the diffraction pattern of a higher-order optical catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper explores a partial unfolding of the canonical three-dimensional diffraction field associated with the optical catastrophe X9 with modulus K = −6. A practical realization would be the focal region of a thin lens created by setting a drop of water on a horizontal glass slide and constraining its perimeter to be square. The pattern of caustics formed around the focus is a twisted and ribbed double trumpet with 4-fold symmetry. Like all diffraction catastrophes the essential structure is based on a pattern of line singularities (wave dislocations or optical vortices) on which the amplitude is zero and the phase is indeterminate. The caustic is encircled on the outside, and in the focal plane, by a highly puckered and non-circular ring and a forest of other dislocations. Far from the axis these are organized by the planar group 3m, despite the 4-fold symmetry. On the inside, the dislocation lines form a curved quasi-periodic lattice of small, nearly planar, nearly circular, rings based on the tetragonal space group I4mm. There are similarities to the pattern for the elliptic umbilic catastrophe, and, just as in that case, far from the focus the inner rings in lines close to the ribs of the caustic eventually join together to become the straight inner dislocations of the Pearcey pattern for the cusp. But the way in which this transition is accomplished, which involves four simultaneous reconnections, is quite different for the two catastrophes. Further, in the elliptic (and hyperbolic) umbilic catastrophes diffraction splits the focal spot longitudinally; in X9 with K = −6 it does not

  13. Grey forewarning and prediction for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Qi-hua; CAO Jian-jun

    2007-01-01

    Based on the theory of grey system, established GM (1, 1) grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing (not the volume of water inflowing). After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in -400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis,it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.

  14. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  15. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  16. Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  17. Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUN LI; WANG DE-HUI

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium.The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund.The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer,and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund.We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties,which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.

  18. Combined injuries and their significance in catastrophic medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problems involved in combined injuries and their significance for catastrophe medicine are investigated in animal experiments. Rats and mice were irradiated under various conditions. In addition, they were subjected to further traumas such as wounds, application of chemotherapeuticals, stress, amongst others, in order to test these combined injuries. Certain pathological parameters such as the influence of these combined injuries on hematopoiesis, erythropoiesis, metabolic behaviour, histological investigations on organs, mortality, recovery phase were tested. It was thus shown that the dose and time dependence are of decisive importance. The effects of pure radiation injuries - compared to those injuries brought about by other parameters - generally do not give a summation of the injuries within the combined injuries. Rather, we find a very different effect picture of the combined injuries compared to the so-called 'single injuries'. The varying behaviour of the species is also remarkable so that one cannot directly relate these results to humans. The results clearly show that yet several animal species must be investigated in order to be able to draw conclusions regarding combined injuries in humans. (GSE)

  19. Reassessing Catastrophic Infill of the Pokhara Valley, Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Adhikari, Basantha; Korup, Oliver

    2014-05-01

    The Pokhara valley, home to Nepal's second largest city and a major tourist attraction (28°15'N, 83°58'E), is covered by 4-5 km3 and 50-100 m thick intramontane fan deposits that resulted from massive aggradation of the Seti Khola, a river draining the Annapurna Massif of the Greater Himalaya. Poorly sorted, gravelly fluvial facies intercalated with debris-flow and mud-flow facies known as the Pokhara Gravels attest to highly energetic transport conditions during one or several catastrophic flow events. In May 2012, a devastative flash flood/debris flow in the Seti Khola rekindled interest in the formation processes and timing of the Pokhara Gravels as they may provide constraints on the magnitudes and frequencies of similar past events. Interpretations of previous sedimentological work and radiocarbon dating (Yamanaka, 1982; Fort, 1987) culminated in the belief that the Pokhara Gravels were catastrophically emplaced only 500 to 1000 years ago, although the exact nature, timing, and triggers of the purported event(s) remain obscure. Specifically, it remains debated whether the Pokhara Gravels were deposited instantaneously, possibly within less than a year, or whether sedimentation was more protracted over perhaps decades to millennia. We present new geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, and radiocarbon data and re-assess a potential catastrophic infill of the Pokhara Valley during one or several high-magnitude events. Support for this scenario is given by laterally continuous long-runout (~40 km) debris-flow deposits topped by large (i.e. up to >11-m) boulders, a distinctly calcareous lithology diagnostic of a small Greater Himalayan source area tens of kilometres upstream, and by historical anecdotes of a large flood that destroyed an earlier settlement in the area. However, we show that dated outcrops of fine-grained sediments in tributaries blocked by the Pokhara Gravels yield asynchronous ages. Although our radiocarbon dates are consistent with

  20. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N;

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...

  1. Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    This volume contains extended abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the conference on Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond, July 9-12, 2000, in Vienna, Austria.

  2. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjøgx, Heidi; Zachariae, Robert; Pfeiffer-Jensen, Mogens; Kasch, Helge; Svensson, Peter; Jensen, Troels S.; Vase, Lene

    2014-01-01

    Background: Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress, and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method: A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Beck Depression Inventory, and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency. Results: In both samples, high pain frequency was found to moderate the association between pain catastrophizing and pain intensity, whereas low pain frequency did not. The psychometric properties and the factor structure of the Danish version of the PCS were confirmed. Conclusions: This is the first study to validate the Danish version of the PCS and to show that pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and reported pain in both non-clinical and clinical populations. PMID:25646089

  3. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi eKjøgx

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method A non-clinical (247 students and a clinical (223 pain patients sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Beck Depression Inventory and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency Results In both samples, high pain frequency was found to moderate the association between pain catastrophizing and pain intensity, whereas low pain frequency did not. The psychometric properties and the factor structure of the Danish version of the PCS were confirmed.Conclusions This is the first study to validate the Danish version of the PCS and to show that pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and reported pain in both non-clinical and clinical populations.

  4. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.)

  5. Can we be prepared for the next accident or catastrophe?

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophes and accidents (natural, technological, or man--‐made) have been subjected to scientific research from different disciplines and perspectives for a long time. Examples of these perspectives include community risk and vulnerability, human behaviour during crisis, fire behaviour and eco--‐system management, decision--‐making, communication, and collaboration issues. This paper deals with different perspectives of preparation and prevention in terms of accidents and catastrophes. The...

  6. Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events

    OpenAIRE

    Verdière, Nathalie; Lanza, Valentina; Charrier, Rodolphe; Provitolo, Damienne; Dubos-Paillard, Edwige; Bertelle, Cyrille; Aziz-Alaoui, Moulay

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach for modeling the human collective behaviors in the speci c scenario of a sudden catastrophe, this catastrophe can be natural (i.e. earthquake, tsunami) or technological (nuclear event). The novelty of our work is to propose a mathematical model taking into account di erent concurrent behaviors in such situation and to include the processes of transition from one behavior to the other during the event. Here, we focus more on the sequence of behaviors ...

  7. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  8. Some Aspects of the Economics of Catastrophe Risk Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2005-01-01

    The ability to share risk efficiently in the economy is essential to welfare and growth. However, the increased frequency of natural catastrophes over the last decade has raised once again questions associated to the limits of insurability in a free-market economy, and to the relevance of public interventions on risk-sharing markets. In this paper, we explore the potential reasons for the lack of insurance specifically associated to catastrophe environmental risks. Our final aim is to link ea...

  9. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaput, Geneviève; Lajoie, Susanne P; Naismith, Laura M; Lavigne, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1) and 8 weeks (Time 2) after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r = .31 to .44), number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r = .35 to .45), psychological distress (r = .57 to .67), and level of functionality (r = -.43 to -.29). Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2). Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms. PMID:27445604

  10. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  11. Factors that determine catastrophic expenditure for tuberculosis care: a patient survey in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chengchao Zhou; Qian Long; Jiaying Chen; Li Xiang; Qiang Li; Shenglan Tang; Fei Huang

    2016-01-01

    Background:Tuberculosis (TB) often causes catastrophic economic effects on both the individual suffering the disease and their households.A number of studies have analyzed patient and household expenditure on TB care,but there does not appear to be any that have assessed the incidence,intensity and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) relating to TB care in China.That will be the objective of this paper.Methods:The data used for this study were derived from the baseline survey of the China Government-Gates Foundation TB Phase Ⅱ program.Our analysis included 747 TB cases.Catastrophic health expenditure for TB care was estimated using two approaches,with households defined as experiencing CHE if their annual expenditure on TB care:(a) exceeded 10 % of total household income;and (b) exceeded 40 % of their non-food expenditure (capacity to pay).Chi-square tests were used to identify associated factors and logistic regression analysis to identify the determinants of CHE.Results:The incidence of CHE was 66.8 % using the household income measure and 54.7 % using non-food expenditure (capacity to pay).An inverse association was observed between CHE rates and household income level.Significant determinants of CHE were:age,household size,employment status,health insurance status,patient income as a percentage of total household income,hospitalization and status as a minimum living security household.Factors including gender,marital status and type of TB case had no significant associations with CHE.Conclusions:Catastrophic health expenditure incidence from TB care is high in China.An integrated policy expanding the free treatment package and ensuring universal coverage,especially the height of UHC for TB patients,is needed.Financial and social protection interventions are essential for identified at-risk groups.

  12. The race between cooperation and catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If a nuclear weapon were detonated in London, or in any of the world's major cities, it would change our world forever. Beyond the horror and the immediate death, and the lives that would be shortened by radioactive fallout, the casualties could also include civil liberties, privacy, world confidence and the global economy. With so much at stake, our citizens have every reason to ask: 'Are we doing all we can to prevent a nuclear attack?' My emphatic answer is 'No, we are not.' We have, however, taken some important steps, including: - The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction programme, working since 1991 to secure and destroy weapons and material in the former Soviet Union. This programme helped Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus get rid of all their nuclear weapons, a historic achievement. - The G8 commitment launched three years ago to create and fund the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. - The recently launched US-Russian Global Threat Reduction Initiative to remove and secure high enriched uranium from research facilities around the globe. - The IAEA Nuclear Security Fund, launched to help Member States strengthen the security of nuclear material worldwide. - The commitment by Libya to give up its nuclear weapons programme following skilful diplomacy led by the United Kingdom and the United States of America, with important oversight by the IAEA. - The recent Bush-Putin summit, in which the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the USA each made a personal commitment to enhance and accelerate efforts to secure nuclear weapons and nuclear material worldwide. These are all indispensable steps for global security, but we have miles to go before we sleep. We must remove roadblocks, we must provide more resources, we must convert pledges to programmes and words to deeds. We must develop a global partnership against catastrophic terrorism that is effective, focused and truly global. This includes

  13. Predicting Predictable about Natural Catastrophic Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    predictable, but not the exact size, site, date, and probability of an extreme catastrophe. This, apparently natural concept, is illustrated by application to seismic extremes that show how understanding by modeling the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems of blocks-and-faults has led to reliable methodologies of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis and intermediate-term middle- to narrow-range earthquake prediction algorithms tested in real-time applications over the last decades.

  14. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  15. Catastrophic destabilization of tunnel under rocks slipping in faultage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Hai-qing; WANG Xue-qing; YUAN Jing

    2008-01-01

    The model of catastrophic destabilization of tunnel under rock slipping in fault zone based on catastrophic theory and the potential function of fault movement were presented. On the basis of the results above, through Taylor series expansion of the equation of equilibrium surface, its standard form was obtained. Analysis show that catastrophic destabilization of tunnel will occur only when stiffness ratio between elastic sector and strain weakening sector of soft rocks was larger than or equal to 1. On the other hand,sliding behavior and evolution path of fault were directly affected by exogenous process,and it was a major extraneous factor which leads to catastrophic destabilization of tunnel.In the condition of system catastrophe could be generated, if external forces vary from smaller to larger, firstly, fault sticks or creeps, and secondly, when external force equal to or larger than critical value, fault turns to slip suddenly. Inverse, if external forces vary from larger to smaller, fault smoothly slips firstly, when external force equal to or smaller than critical value, and fault turns to stick or creep suddenly.

  16. Cosmic Irony: SETI Optimism from Catastrophes?

    CERN Document Server

    Cirkovic, M M

    2003-01-01

    Classical arguments for skepticism regarding the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) are critically examined. It is suggested that the emerging class of "phase transition" astrobiological models can simultaneously account for all available astrophysical and biological evidence, explain several unresolved puzzle in Earth sciences, and rationally justify current and future SETI projects. In particular, the hypothesis of Annis that local gamma-ray bursts drive the astrobiological phase transition deserves to be further quantitatively elucidated. Some epistemological and ethical ramifications of such a model are briefly discussed.

  17. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  18. Catastrophic disasters and the design of disaster medical care systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, L E; Reutershan, T P

    1987-09-01

    The National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) is aimed at medical care needs resulting from catastrophic earthquakes, which may cause thousands of deaths and injuries. Other geophysical events may cause great mortality, but leave few injured survivors. Weather incidents, technological disasters, and common mass casualty incidents cause much less mortality and morbidity. Catastrophic disasters overwhelm the local medical care system. Supplemental care is provided by disaster relief forces; this care should be adapted to prevalent types of injuries. Most care should be provided at the disaster scene through supplemental medical facilities, while some can be provided by evacuating patients to distant hospitals. Medical response teams capable of stabilizing, sorting, and holding victims should staff supplemental medical facilities. The NDMS program includes hospital facilities, evacuation assets, and medical response teams. The structure and capabilities of these elements are determined by the medical care needs of the catastrophic disaster situation. PMID:3631673

  19. Gravothermal Catastrophe: the dynamical stability of a fluid model

    CERN Document Server

    Sormani, M C

    2013-01-01

    A re-investigation of the gravothermal catastrophe is presented. By means of a linear perturbation analysis, we study the dynamical stability of a spherical self-gravitating isothermal fluid of finite volume and find that the conditions for the onset of the gravothermal catastrophe, under different external conditions, coincide with those obtained from thermodynamical arguments. This suggests that the gravothermal catastrophe may reduce to Jeans instability, rediscovered in an inhomogeneous framework. We find normal modes and frequencies for the fluid system and show that instability develops on the dynamical time scale. We then discuss several related issues. In particular: (1) For perturbations at constant total energy and constant volume, we introduce a simple heuristic term in the energy budget to mimic the role of binaries. (2) We outline the analysis of the two-component case and show how linear perturbation analysis can be carried out also in this more complex context in a relatively straightforward wa...

  20. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Roda, Manuel; Zegers, Tanja E; Oosthoek, Jelmer H P

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios with morphological and structural analyses of imagery and elevation data for Aram Chaos in conjunction with numerical modeling of the morphological evolution of the catastrophic carving of the outflow valley. The morphological and geological analyses of Aram Chaos suggest large-scale collapse and subsidence (1500 m) of the entire area, which is consistent with a massive expulsion of liquid water from the subsurface in one single event. The combined observations suggest a complex process starting with the outflow of water from two small channels, followed by continuous groundwater sapping and headward erosion and ending with a catastrophic lake rim collapse and carving of the Aram Valley, which is synchronous with ...

  1. Application of Catastrophe Theory in 3D Seismic Data Interpretation of Coal Mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Mu-hua; YANG Wen-qiang; CUI Hui-xia

    2005-01-01

    In order to detect fault exactly and quickly, cusp catastrophe theory is used to interpret 3D coal seismic data in this paper. By establishing a cusp model, seismic signal is transformed into standard form of cusp catastrophe and catastrophe parameters, including time-domain catastrophe potential, time-domain catastrophe time, frequency-domain catastrophe potential and frequency- domain degree, are calculated. Catastrophe theory is used in 3D seismic structural interpretation in coal mine. The results show that the position of abnormality of the catastrophe parameter profile or curve is related to the location of fault, and the cusp catastrophe theory is effective to automatically pick up geology information and improve the interpretation precision in 3D seismic data.

  2. Crisis Management Aspects of Bam Catastrophic Earthquake: Review Article

    OpenAIRE

    Homayoun Sadeghi-Bazargani; Saber Azami-Aghdash; Abdolhassan Kazemi; Behrad Ziapour

    2015-01-01

    Background: Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis manage­ment during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran.Methods: Data needed for this systematic review were collected through search­ing PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis...

  3. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome presenting as fever of unknown origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatma I Al-Beladi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies with characteristic clinical manifestation, which include venous, arterial thrombosis, thrombotic microangiopathy, and recurrent fetal loss. The syndrome can be secondary to many causes including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE or "primary" antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS. We report a case of a man with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS, which occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thrombosis in less than a week. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is uncommon but often fatal. The patient received a successful treatment that controlled this disease and included intravenous heparin, antiplatelet, intravenous corticosteroid, and plasmapheresis.

  4. Super Persistent Chaotic Transients And Catastrophic Bifurcation From Riddled To Fractal Basins

    CERN Document Server

    Andrade, V A

    2002-01-01

    This dissertation treats two related problems in chaotic dynamics: (1) super persistent chaotic transients in physical systems, and (2) catastrophic bifurcation from riddled to fractal basins. For the first problem, we investigate super persistent chaotic transient by studying the effect of noise on phase synchronization of coupled chaotic oscillators. A super persistent chaotic transient is typically induced by an unstable-unstable pair bifurcation in which two unstable periodic orbits of the same period coalesce and disappear as a system parameter is changed through a critical value. So far examples illustrating this type of transient chaos utilize discrete-time maps. We present a class of continuous-time dynamical systems that exhibit super persistent chaotic transients in parameter regimes of positive measure. In particular, we examine the effect of noise on phase synchronization of coupled chaotic oscillators. It is found that additive white noise can induce phase slips in integer multi...

  5. 7 CFR 402.4 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... history program (7 CFR part 400, subpart G) or for crops not included under 7 CFR part 400, subpart G, the... Endorsement: (1) The Common Crop Insurance Policy (7 CFR 457.8) and crop provisions; (2) The Group Risk Plan... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement...

  6. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...

  7. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt;

    2013-01-01

    origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...

  8. Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, Max; Dekker, Stefan C.; Ruiter, Peter C. de; Koppel, Johan van de

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to c

  9. Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; de Ruiter, P.C.; Van de Koppel, J.

    2004-01-01

    Unexpected sudden catastrophic shifts may occur in ecosystems, with concomitant losses or gains of ecological and economic resources. Such shifts have been theoretically attributed to positive feedback and bistability of ecosystem states. However, verifications and predictive power with respect to c

  10. Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kefi, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Nes, E.H. van; Rietkerk, M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem responses to external changes can surprise us by their abruptness and irreversibility. Models have helped identifying indicators of impending catastrophic shifts, referred to as ‘generic early warning signals’. These indicators are linked to a phenomenon known as ‘critical slowing down’ wh

  11. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890. ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  12. Training and Practice in Trauma, Catastrophes, and Disaster Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Sharon L.; Roysircar, Gargi

    2011-01-01

    Trauma-related assistance in response to disasters or catastrophes is needed locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally, and the authors argue that there is a necessity for counseling psychologists and counseling psychology programs to incorporate it into their prevention, training, and social justice repertoire. Counseling psychologists…

  13. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. PMID:22967051

  14. Population resilience to catastrophic mortality events during early life stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlberger, Jan; Langangen, Øystein

    2015-07-01

    Catastrophic mortality events that drastically reduce the abundance of a population or a particular life stage can have long-term ecological and economic effects, and are of great concern in species conservation and management. Severe die-offs may be caused by natural catastrophes such as disease outbreaks and extreme climates, or human-caused disturbances such as toxic spills. Forecasting potential impacts of such disturbances is difficult and highly uncertain due to unknown future conditions, including population status and environmental conditions at the time of impact. Here, we present a framework for quantifying the range of potential, population-level effects of catastrophic events based on a hindcasting approach. A dynamic population model with Bayesian parameter estimation is used to simulate the impact of severe (50-99%) mortality events during the early life stages of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), an abundant marine fish population of high economic value. We quantify the impact of such die-offs in terms of subsequent changes in population biomass and harvest through direct comparison of simulated and historical trends, and estimate the duration of the impact as a measure of population resilience. Our results demonstrate strong resilience to catastrophic events that affect early life stages owing to density dependence in survival and a broad population age structure. Yet, while population recovery is. relatively fast, losses in harvest and economic value can be substantial. Future research efforts should focus on long-term and indirect effects via food web interactions in order to better understand the ecological and economic ramifications of catastrophic mortality events. PMID:26485960

  15. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  16. Distribution of cesium 137 between different sorption sites of soils contaminated by Chernobyl catastrophe products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The results of investigation of distribution of cesium 137 ions between different sorption sites of soils contaminated by Chernobyl catastrophe products are received. Using NH42 and Sr2+ as ousted cations the portion of radionuclide adsorbed by specific (FES) and regular (RES) exchangeable sites have been determined. The distribution of cesium 137 ions and its exchangeable form between soils and liquid phases of water saturated soils have been established. The distribution coefficients have been evaluated. The behavior of cesium 137 in a system 'soil - solution' with different contribution of FES and RES sites into radionuclide adsorption were considered. Effect of solution acidity and cation concentration compete for exchangeable adsorption have been analyzed. Higher cesium 137 mobility during its transfer from solid phase into solution in soils, where content of specific adsorption sites is limited, was revealed

  17. 15 CFR 2301.10 - Applications resulting from catastrophic damage or emergency situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... catastrophic damage or emergency situations. 2301.10 Section 2301.10 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations... Applications resulting from catastrophic damage or emergency situations. (a) An application may be filed with a... suffers catastrophic damage to the basic equipment essential to its continued operation as a result of...

  18. 78 FR 24310 - Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... Study and Report to Congress on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance AGENCY: Federal Insurance Office... market for natural catastrophe insurance in the United States.\\1\\ \\1\\ Public Law 112-141, Sec. 100247..., Attention: Study on Natural Catastrophes and Insurance, Room 1319 MT, Department of the Treasury,...

  19. Glacial curvilineations: gradual or catastrophic origin?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Chris; Livingstone, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    Glacial curvilineations (GCLs) are enigmatic landforms that have recently been discovered in Poland (Lesemann et al., 2010, 2014). They comprise parallel sets of sinuous ridges separated by troughs that are found in tunnel valleys and replicate the morphology and pattern of the valley sides. The sedimentology for some has been reported to indicate that the sediment composition relates to a pre-GCL phase. So far just one theory for their formation exists - erosion by longitudinal-vortices within high-energy subglacial meltwater flows (Lesemann et al., 2010). Here, we provide an alternative hypothesis for their formation developed from observations of GCLs found along the southern sector of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. In all cases GCLs were found associated with tunnel valley widenings or hollows and occur as distinct parallel sets that mimic each other in terms of nicks and cusps. Using analogies from tree-rings and coral growth we take such mimicry as indicating either incremental growth or development from a template over time. Although without a strong physical explanation we find it much less likely that a series of parallel water channels would maintain such strong mimicry. We instead suggest that subglacial thawing of frozen ground in association with discrete water bodies (tunnel valleys or subglacial lakes) resulted in retrogressive bank failure, possibly along a glide plane provided by a frozen surface. References: Lesemann, J.-E., Piotrowski, J. a, Wysota, W., 2010. "Glacial curvilineations": New glacial landforms produced by longitudinal vortices in subglacial meltwater flows. Geomorphology 120, 153-161. Lesemann, J.-E., Piotrowski, J. a, Wysota, W., 2014. Genesis of the "glacial curvilineation" landscape by meltwater processes under the former Scandinavian Ice Sheet, Poland. Sediment. Geol. 312, 1-18.

  20. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.)

  1. The Kychtym accident or the story of a secret catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyses the causes, the circumstances and the environmental consequences of the Kychtym catastrophe (Ural, USSR) that occurred in September 29, 1957 in the fuel recycle plant of the Tcheliabinsk military-industrial complex. A brief description of the separation process and of the installations used is given to understand the conclusions of the inquiry carried out by Russian and foreign experts. The violent redox reaction between nitrates and acetates that occurred, was due to a lack of cooling in the fission products storage ponds. The catastrophe produced a huge strontium 90-rich radioactive cloud which led to a 9000 to 15000 km2 surface contamination. A comparison with the PUREX separation process used in France is given to evaluate the risk of such industrial accidents in French fuel recycle centers. (J.S.). 1 fig., 2 photos

  2. Intraoperative endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst: An airway catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richa Gupta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydatid cyst disease of lungs may not be symptomatic. It may present as spontaneous rupture in pleura or a bronchus. During spontaneous breathing, cyst content of endobronchially ruptured pulmonary hydatid cyst is mostly evacuated by coughing. However, during positive pressure ventilation such extruded fragments may lodge into smaller airway leading to an airway catastrophe. We present such accidental endobronchial rupture of pulmonary hydatid cyst during surgery, its prompt detection, and management by rigid bronchoscopy.

  3. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836. ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant ostatní: GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  4. The Risk and Duration of Catastrophic Health Care Expenditures

    OpenAIRE

    Feenberg, Daniel; Skinner, Jonathan

    1992-01-01

    Catastrophic medical expenses are an important economic risk facing the elderly. Little is known about the persistence of such out-of-pocket medical costs. We measure the time-series property of medical costs using information on medical deductions from a panel of tax returns. During the period of analysis, 1968-73, taxpayers could deduct medical expenses above 3 percent of income. We correct for the resulting censoring bias using multivariate Tobit estimated with a variant of the smoothed si...

  5. Bank strategies in catastrophe settings: empirical evidence and policy suggestions

    OpenAIRE

    Leonardo Becchetti; Stefano Castriota; Pierluigi Conzo

    2012-01-01

    The poor in developing countries are the most exposed to natural catastrophes and microfinance organizations may potentially ease their economic recovery. Yet, no evidence on MFIs strategies after natural disasters exists. We aim to fill this gap by building adataset which merges bank records of loans, issued before and after the 2004 Tsunami by a Sri Lankan MFI recapitalized by Western donors, with detailed survey data on the corresponding borrowers. Evidence of effective post-calamity inter...

  6. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  7. Book review: Global NATO and the catastrophic failure in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    von Weitershausen, Inez

    2013-01-01

    "Global NATO and the Catastrophic Failure in Libya." Horace Campbell. Monthly Review Press. March 2013. --- Horace Campbell investigates the political and economic crises of the early twenty-first century through the prism of NATO’s intervention in Libya. He traces the origins of the conflict, situates it in the broader context of the Arab Spring uprisings, and explains the expanded role of a post-Cold War NATO. This military organization is the instrument through which the capitalist cla...

  8. Pricing Excess-of-loss Reinsurance Contracts Against Catastrophic Loss

    OpenAIRE

    J. David Cummins; Lewis, Christopher M.; Phillips, Richard D.

    1998-01-01

    This paper develops a pricing methodology and pricing estimates for the proposed Federal excess-of- loss (XOL) catastrophe reinsurance contracts. The contracts, proposed by the Clinton Administration, would provide per-occurrence excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage to private insurers and reinsurers, where both the coverage layer and the fixed payout of the contract are based on insurance industry losses, not company losses. In financial terms, the Federal government would be selling earthqua...

  9. An illustrative 'plug & play' catastrophe model for groundwater flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Hillier, John; Royse, Kate; Lee, Tzu-Fung; O'Niel, Jullian; Kingdon, Andrew; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    Economic losses from natural catastrophes are substantial; e.g., US130 billion in 2010. 'Catastrophe models' are stochastic event-set based models that simulate these risks and underpin their assessment in the insurance industry. Most catastrophe models are proprietary 'black boxes', which limit the level of user interaction, but new regulations (Solvency II) require firms to understand better the assumptions upon which the calculations ultimately rest. Part of this greater transparency requires constraining where uncertainty originates, perhaps by interchanging components provided by rival model vendors in 'plug and play' catastrophe models. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a practical, accessible way in which this may be made possible. Specifically to do this the first, illustrative 'plug and play' model was created efficiently and effectively using OpenMI, a free 'open-source' model linking standard. In about 100 man-hours climate, groundwater flow, vulnerability, exposure and loss components were linked to output financial losses, i.e., occurrence exceedance probability (OEP) curves. Groundwater flooding near Marlborough (UK) is used for this proof of concept. Losses from this example dataset are small, about £3.8 million for a 33 yr OEP, but groundwater is an important compounding factor in UK flooding and this is the first, albeit rudimentary, attempt to probabilistically model loss for this hazard. Selected components are swopped, and losses calculated to show how insights into the origin of uncertainty can be gained. Crucially, OpenMI has the future potential to operate online and shield valuable data within components whilst allowing them to be swopped. So, it has the potential to underpin a secure, open-source, practical framework of use to the insurance industry.

  10. Market Integration for Shrimp and the Effect of Catastrophic Events

    OpenAIRE

    Harri, Ardian; Muhammad, Andrew; Jones, Keithly G.

    2010-01-01

    Seasonal unit-root testing and seasonal cointegration methods are employed to investigate the price transmission in U.S. shrimp markets. ARIMA and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are used to identify the effect of catastrophic events on individual price series in one region and the spillover effects in the price series for other regions. Results showed that a cointegrating relation exists between neighboring states, specifically between Alabama and Mississippi and Louisiana and Texas. C...

  11. Catastrophic Fault Recovery with Self-Reconfigurable Chips

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Will Hua; Marzwell, Neville I.; Chau, Savio N.

    2006-01-01

    Mission critical systems typically employ multi-string redundancy to cope with possible hardware failure. Such systems are only as fault tolerant as there are many redundant strings. Once a particular critical component exhausts its redundant spares, the multi-string architecture cannot tolerate any further hardware failure. This paper aims at addressing such catastrophic faults through the use of 'Self-Reconfigurable Chips' as a last resort effort to 'repair' a faulty critical component.

  12. Dynamic of gastroduodenal bleeding distribution after Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It was investigated the evidence of gastroduodenal bleeding between Belarus population from 1989 to 1996 period. 27981 occurrences of this disease were registered. The annual permanent growth of the disease was revealed. Between persons, having worked in the Chernobyl region in the first year after the catastrophe, it was found the ulcer disease distribution in 7 times greater than between the whole population. It was concluded about heavy course of ulcer disease in residents of Belarus in the modern conditions

  13. Underwater studies in the regions of 'Komsomolets' nuclear submarine catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a summary of the results of an expedition in the area of the 'Komsomolets' nuclear submarine catastrophe. The submarine sunk in the Norvegian Sea, 1690 m deep-seated in April 1989. The ecological situation was studied, radioactivity levels onboard the submarine and around it were measured. Visual inspections of the submarine and its parts have shown permissible levels of radioactive contamination. 1 ref., 3 figs

  14. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  15. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  16. Bifurcation and catastrophe of seepage flow system in broken rock

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO Xie-xing; LI Shun-cai; CHEN Zhan-qing

    2009-01-01

    The study of dynamical behavior of water or gas flows in broken rock is a basic research topic among a series of key projects about stability control of the surrounding rocks in mines and the prevention of some disasters such as water inrush or gas outburst and the protection of the groundwater resource. It is of great theoretical and engineering importance in respect of promo-tion of security in mine production and sustainable development of the coal industry. According to the non-Darcy property of seepage flow in broken rock dynamic equations of non-Darcy and non-steady flows in broken rock are established. By dimensionless transformation, the solution diagram of steady-states satisfying the given boundary conditions is obtained. By numerical analysis of low relaxation iteration, the dynamic responses corresponding to the different flow parameters have been obtained. The stability analysis of the steady-states indicate that a saddle-node bifurcaton exists in the seepage flow system of broken rock. Consequently, using catastrophe theory, the fold catastrophe model of seepage flow instability has been obtained. As a result, the bifurcation curves of the seepage flow systems with different control parameters are presented and the standard potential function is also given with respect to the generalized state variable for the fold catastrophe of a dynamic system of seepage flow in broken rock.

  17. Catastrophic rupture of lunar rocks - A Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerz, F.; Schneider, E.; Gault, D. E.; Hartung, J. B.; Brownlee, D. E.

    1975-01-01

    A computer model based on Monte Carlo techniques was developed to simulate the destruction of lunar rocks by 'catastrophic rupture' due to meteoroid impact. Energies necessary to accomplish catastrophic rupture were derived from laboratory experiments. A crater-production rate derived from lunar rocks was utilized to calculate absolute time scales. Calculated median survival times for crystalline lunar rocks are 1.9, 4.6, 10.3, and 22 m.y. for rock masses of 10, 100, 1000, and 10,000 g, respectively. Corresponding times of 6, 14.5, 32, and 68 million years are required before the probability of destruction reaches 0.99. These results are consistent with absolute exposure ages measured on returned rocks. Some results also substantiate previous conclusions that the catastrophic-rupture process is significantly more effective in obliterating lunar rocks than mass wasting by single-particle abrasion. The view is also corroborated that most rocks presently on the lunar surface either are exhumed from the regolith or are fragments of much larger boulders rather than primary ejecta excavated from pristine bedrock.

  18. Molecular and Mechanical Causes of Microtubule Catastrophe and Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakharov, Pavel; Gudimchuk, Nikita; Voevodin, Vladimir; Tikhonravov, Alexander; Ataullakhanov, Fazoil I; Grishchuk, Ekaterina L

    2015-12-15

    Tubulin polymers, microtubules, can switch abruptly from the assembly to shortening. These infrequent transitions, termed "catastrophes", affect numerous cellular processes but the underlying mechanisms are elusive. We approached this complex stochastic system using advanced coarse-grained molecular dynamics modeling of tubulin-tubulin interactions. Unlike in previous simplified models of dynamic microtubules, the catastrophes in this model arise owing to fluctuations in the composition and conformation of a growing microtubule tip, most notably in the number of protofilament curls. In our model, dynamic evolution of the stochastic microtubule tip configurations over a long timescale, known as the system's "aging", gives rise to the nonexponential distribution of microtubule lifetimes, consistent with experiment. We show that aging takes place in the absence of visible changes in the microtubule wall or tip, as this complex molecular-mechanical system evolves slowly and asymptotically toward the steady-state level of the catastrophe-promoting configurations. This new, to our knowledge, theoretical basis will assist detailed mechanistic investigations of the mechanisms of action of different microtubule-binding proteins and drugs, thereby enabling accurate control over the microtubule dynamics to treat various pathologies. PMID:26682815

  19. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0∘ to 22∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  20. Genomic catastrophes frequently arise in esophageal adenocarcinoma and drive tumorigenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nones, Katia; Waddell, Nicola; Wayte, Nicci; Patch, Ann-Marie; Bailey, Peter; Newell, Felicity; Holmes, Oliver; Fink, J Lynn; Quinn, Michael C J; Tang, Yue Hang; Lampe, Guy; Quek, Kelly; Loffler, Kelly A; Manning, Suzanne; Idrisoglu, Senel; Miller, David; Xu, Qinying; Waddell, Nick; Wilson, Peter J; Bruxner, Timothy J C; Christ, Angelika N; Harliwong, Ivon; Nourse, Craig; Nourbakhsh, Ehsan; Anderson, Matthew; Kazakoff, Stephen; Leonard, Conrad; Wood, Scott; Simpson, Peter T; Reid, Lynne E; Krause, Lutz; Hussey, Damian J; Watson, David I; Lord, Reginald V; Nancarrow, Derek; Phillips, Wayne A; Gotley, David; Smithers, B Mark; Whiteman, David C; Hayward, Nicholas K; Campbell, Peter J; Pearson, John V; Grimmond, Sean M; Barbour, Andrew P

    2014-01-01

    Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is rapidly increasing in Western countries. A better understanding of EAC underpins efforts to improve early detection and treatment outcomes. While large EAC exome sequencing efforts to date have found recurrent loss-of-function mutations, oncogenic driving events have been underrepresented. Here we use a combination of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and single-nucleotide polymorphism-array profiling to show that genomic catastrophes are frequent in EAC, with almost a third (32%, n=40/123) undergoing chromothriptic events. WGS of 22 EAC cases show that catastrophes may lead to oncogene amplification through chromothripsis-derived double-minute chromosome formation (MYC and MDM2) or breakage-fusion-bridge (KRAS, MDM2 and RFC3). Telomere shortening is more prominent in EACs bearing localized complex rearrangements. Mutational signature analysis also confirms that extreme genomic instability in EAC can be driven by somatic BRCA2 mutations. These findings suggest that genomic catastrophes have a significant role in the malignant transformation of EAC. PMID:25351503

  1. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  2. Double scaling limits and airy functions for O(N) vector sigma models with elementary catastrophes or the catastrophe X9

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One and two vector sigma models are defined that possess catastrophes in their action. Each catastrophe defines a double scaling limit at N→∞. Critical indices are calculated and the Airy functions are shown to satisfy RG equations. Copyright copyright 1996 Academic Press, Inc

  3. Classification of inflationary Einstein-scalar-field-models via catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    Kusmartsev, F V; Obukhov, N; Schunck, E; Kusmartsev, V; Mielke, W; Obukhov, N; Schunck, E

    1995-01-01

    Various scenarios of the initial inflation of the universe are distinguished by the choice of a scalar field {\\em potential} U(\\phi) which simulates a {\\it temporarily} non--vanishing {\\em cosmological term}. Our new method, which involves a reparametrization in terms of the Hubble expansion parameter H, provides a classification of allowed inflationary potentials and of the stability of the critical points. It is broad enough to embody all known {\\it exact} solutions involving one scalar field as special cases. Inflation corresponds to the evolution of critical points of some catastrophe manifold. The coalescence of its nondegenerate critical points with the creation of a degenerate critical point corresponds the reheating phase of the universe. This is illustrated by several examples.

  4. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  5. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  6. Blue sky catastrophe as applied to modeling of cardiac rhythms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glyzin, S. D.; Kolesov, A. Yu.; Rozov, N. Kh.

    2015-07-01

    A new mathematical model for the electrical activity of the heart is proposed. The model represents a special singularly perturbed three-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations with one fast and two slow variables. A characteristic feature of the system is that its solution performs nonclassical relaxation oscillations and simultaneously undergoes a blue sky catastrophe bifurcation. Both these factors make it possible to achieve a phenomenological proximity between the time dependence of the fast component in the model and an ECG of the human heart.

  7. Catastrophic medical protection: a plan for sharing excessive costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, R D

    1982-01-01

    Cost sharing provisions in both private and public health insurance plans have greatly increased consumer out-of-pocket expenses for medical services in recent years. The effects of these provisions, coupled with the effects of massive unemployment, have been that many individuals are unable to afford adequate health insurance protection. To protect the nation's health, new proposals to expand health coverage have given rise to catastrophic health insurance. This new health policy priority may assist many low-wage and unemployed workers to meet their cost-sharing obligations in the face of rising medical costs. PMID:10298874

  8. Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

  9. A general theory for flooding implementing cuspoids catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper combines Kelvin-Helmholtz Theory and Catastrophe Theory to develop a general mathematical framework for the flooding phenomenon. The theoretical model proposed in this paper is based on the functional relationship between the gas and liquid flow rates expressed in terms of a modified Kutateladze number that takes into account the effects of entrainment and geometry. A large number of experimental data has been examined against the theoretical model prediction. In most cases, good agreement is obtained by empirically varying only one coefficient. (orig.)

  10. An experimental examination of catastrophizing-related interpretation bias for ambiguous facial expressions of pain using an incidental learning task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatibi, Ali; Schrooten, Martien G S; Vancleef, Linda M G; Vlaeyen, Johan W S

    2014-01-01

    Individuals with pain-related concerns are likely to interpret ambiguous pain-related information in a threatening manner. It is unknown whether this interpretation bias also occurs for ambiguous pain-related facial expressions. This study examined whether individuals who habitually attach a catastrophic meaning to pain are characterized by negative interpretation bias for ambiguous pain-related facial expressions. Sixty-four female undergraduates completed an incidental learning task during which pictures of faces were presented, each followed by a visual target at one of two locations. Participants indicated target location by pressing one of two response keys. During the learning phase, happy and painful facial expressions predicted target location. During two test phases, morphed facial expressions of pain and happiness were added, equally often followed by a target at either location. Faster responses following morphs to targets at the location predicted by painful expressions compared to targets at the location predicted by happy expressions were taken to reflect pain-related interpretation bias. During one test phase, faces were preceded by either a safe or threatening context cue. High, but not low, pain-catastrophizers responded faster following morphs to targets at the location predicted by painful expressions than to targets at the other location (when participants were aware of the contingency between expression type and target location). When context cues were presented, there was no indication of interpretation bias. Participants were also asked to directly classify the facial expressions that were presented during the incidental learning task. Participants classified morphs more often as happy than as painful, independent of their level of pain catastrophizing. This observation is discussed in terms of differences between indirect and direct measures of interpretation bias. PMID:25278913

  11. An experimental examination of catastrophizing-related interpretation bias for ambiguous facial expressions of pain using an incidental learning task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali eKHATIBI

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Individuals with pain-related concerns are likely to interpret ambiguous pain-related information in a threatening manner. It is unknown whether this interpretation bias also occurs for ambiguous pain-related facial expressions. This study examined whether individuals who habitually attach a catastrophic meaning to pain are characterized by negative interpretation bias for ambiguous pain-related facial expressions. Sixty-four female undergraduates completed an incidental learning task during which pictures of faces were presented, each followed by a visual target at one of two locations. Participants indicated target location by pressing one of two response keys. During the learning phase, happy and painful facial expressions predicted target location. During two test phases, morphed facial expressions of pain and happiness were added, equally often followed by a target at either location. Faster responses following morphs to targets at the location predicted by painful expressions compared to targets at the location predicted by happy expressions were taken to reflect pain-related interpretation bias. During one test phase, faces were preceded by either a safe or threatening context cue. High, but not low, pain-catastrophizers responded faster following morphs to targets at the location predicted by painful expressions than to targets at the other location (when participants were aware of the contingency between expression type and target location. When context cues were presented, there was no indication of interpretation bias. Participants were also asked to directly classify the facial expressions that were presented during the incidental learning task. Participants classified morphs more often as happy than as painful, independent of their level of pain catastrophizing. This observation is discussed in terms of differences between indirect and direct measures of interpretation bias.

  12. Pain catastrophizing, physiological indexes, and chronic pain severity: tests of mediation and moderation models

    OpenAIRE

    Wolff, Brandy; Burns, John W.; Quartana, Phillip J.; Lofland, Kenneth; Bruehl, Stephen; Chung, Ok Y.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophizing about pain is related to elevated pain severity and poor adjustment among chronic pain patients, but few physiological mechanisms by which pain catastrophizing maintains and exacerbates pain have been explored. We hypothesized that resting levels of lower paraspinal muscle tension and/or lower paraspinal and cardiovascular reactivity to emotional arousal may: (a) mediate links between pain catastrophizing and chronic pain intensity; (b) moderate these links such that only pati...

  13. Catastrophizing, Functional Disability and Pain Reports in Adults with Chronic Low Back Pain

    OpenAIRE

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that subjective reports of pain severity, pain intensity and functional disability correlate positively with catastrophizing.PATIENTS: Adults with chronic low back pain for six months or longer presenting to a tertiary care Pain Management Unit.METHODS: Catastrophizing was measured with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) in 40 subjects (23 males, 17 females). Functional disability was measured with the Pain Disability Index and pain severity/intensity was q...

  14. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  15. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  16. Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačev-Zavišić Branka

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4 and triiodothyronine (T3. Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency. The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger autoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction, is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consequences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima. The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  17. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  18. Crisis Management Aspects of Bam Catastrophic Earthquake: Review Article

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Homayoun Sadeghi-Bazargani

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis manage­ment during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran.Methods: Data needed for this systematic review were collected through search­ing PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis.Results: Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Manage­ment aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information manage­ment. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. Conclusion: The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  19. Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

  20. Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

  1. Agricultural Mechanism of Spreading Catastrophe Risk in China and Legislation Conception

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces agricultural catastrophe and its characteristics,and conducts comparative analysis on existing mechanism of spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,indicating that the mechanism of administrative remedy has the greatest efficiency and highest cost;the mechanism of social assistance has the lowest cost,but its efficiency is lowest and there are unstable factors;market mechanism,namely the insurance of agricultural catastrophe,is the rational choice of agricultural department in mechanism of risk spreading.This paper analyzes the status quo of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe,indicating that the main body of management in China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is missing.In addition,the market demand is critically scanty,and insurance of agricultural catastrophe lacks external development environment.The gap of China’s insurance law of agricultural catastrophe has become the greatest obstacle to the development of insurance of agricultural catastrophe.From legislative purpose,basic principle,nature,main body of legal relations,management range,policy support,supervision and management and so on,the legislation conception of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is put forward.

  2. Exposure of Human Lung Cancer Cells to 8-Chloro-Adenosine Induces G2/M Arrest and Mitotic Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Yu Zhang

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available 8-Chloro-adenosine (8-CI-Ado is a potent chemotherapeutic agent whose cytotoxicity in a variety of tumor cell lines has been widely investigated. However, the molecular mechanisms are uncertain. In this study, we found that exposure of human lung cancer cell lines A549 (p53-wt and H1299 (p53-depleted to 8-CI-Ado induced cell arrest in the G2/M phase, which was accompanied by accumulation of binucleated and polymorphonucleated cells resulting from aberrant mitosis and failed cytokinesis. Western blotting showed the loss of phosphorylated forms of Cdc2 and Cdc25C that allowed progression into mitosis. Furthermore, the increase in Ser10-phosphorylated histone H3-positive cells revealed by fluorescence-activated cell sorting suggested that the agent-targeted cells were able to exit the G2 phase and enter the M phase. Immunocytochemistry showed that microtubule and microfilament arrays were changed in exposed cells, indicating that the dynamic instability of microtubules and microfilaments was lost, which may correlate with mitotic dividing failure. Aberrant mitosis resulted in mitotic catastrophe followed by varying degrees of apoptosis, depending on the cell lines. Thus, 8-CI-Ado appears to exert its cytotoxicity toward cells in culture by inducing mitotic catastrophe.

  3. Withaferin-A induces mitotic catastrophe and growth arrest in prostate cancer cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Ram V; Suman, Suman; Das, Trinath P.; Luevano, Joe; Damodaran, Chendil

    2014-01-01

    Cell cycle deregulation is strongly associated with the pathogenesis of prostate cancer (CaP). Clinical trials of cell cycle regulators that target either the G0/G1 or G2/M phase to inhibit the growth of cancers including CaP are increasing. In this study, we determined the cell-cycle regulatory potential of the herbal molecule Withaferin-A (WA) on CaP cells. WA induced irreversible G2/M arrest in both CaP cell lines (PC3 and DU145) for 48 h. The G2/M arrest was accompanied by upregulation of phosphorylated Wee1, phophorylated histone H3, p21 and Aurora-B. On the other hand, downregulation of cyclins (E2, A, and B1) and phorphorylated Cdc2 (Tyr15) was observed in WA-treated CaP cells. In addition, decreased levels of phosphorylated Chk1 (Ser345) and Chk2 (Thr68) were evident in WA-treated CaP cells. Our results suggest that activation of Cdc2 leads to accumulation in M-phase, with abnormal duplication, and initiation of mitotic catastrophe that results in cell death. In conclusion, these results clearly highlight the potential of WA as a regulator of the G2/M phase of the cell cycle and as a therapeutic agent for CaP. PMID:24079846

  4. Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Eugene J.; Trathan, Philip N; Watkins, Jon L.; Reid, Keith; Meredith, Michael P.; Forcada, Jaume; Thorpe, Sally E.; Johnston, Nadine M; Rothery, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmosp...

  5. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  6. [Christopher Columbus flu. A hypothesis for an ecological catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Sanz, Agustín

    2006-05-01

    When Christopher Columbus and his men embarked on the second Colombian expedition to the New World (1493), the crew suffered from fever, respiratory symptoms and malaise. It is generally accepted that the disease was influenza. Pigs, horses and hens acquired in Gomera (Canary Islands) traveled in the same ship. The pigs may well have been the origin of the flu and the intermediary hosts for genetic recombination of other viral subtypes. The Caribbean archipelago had a large population of birds, the natural reservoir of the avian influenza virus. In this ecological scenario there was a concurrence of several biological elements that had never before coexisted in the New World: pigs, horses, the influenza virus and humans. We propose that birds are likely to have played an important role in the epidemiology of the flu occurring on the second Colombian trip, which caused a fatal demographic catastrophe, with an estimated mortality of 90% among the natives. PMID:16762260

  7. Rotation-Dependent Catastrophic Disruption of Gravitational Aggregates

    CERN Document Server

    Ballouz, Ronald-Louis; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen R

    2014-01-01

    We carry out a systematic exploration of the effect of pre-impact rotation on the outcomes of low-speed collisions between planetesimals modeled as gravitational aggregates. We use pkdgrav, a cosmology code adapted to collisional problems and recently enhanced with a new soft-sphere collision algorithm that includes more realistic contact forces. A rotating body has lower effective surface gravity than a non-rotating one and therefore might suffer more mass loss as the result of a collision. What is less well understood, however, is whether rotation systematically increases mass loss on average regardless of the impact trajectory. This has important implications for the efficiency of planet formation via planetesimal growth, and also more generally for the determination of the impact energy threshold for catastrophic disruption (leading to the largest remnant retaining 50% of the original mass), as this has generally only been evaluated for non-spinning bodies. We find that for most collision scenarios, rotat...

  8. Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems

    CERN Document Server

    Brummitt, Charles D; D'Souza, Raissa M

    2014-01-01

    A profoundly important challenge in several disciplines today is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a new technology platform, collapses in prices and in confidence in financial markets, and protests erupting in multiple countries. We characterize these phenomena using a simple model grounded in the theory of fast--slow ordinary differential equations and in catastrophe theory. In the model, a system consists of multiple subsystems (e.g., countries in the global economy or patches of an ecosystem), each described by a scalar quantity (such as economic output or population) that undergoes sudden changes via saddle-node bifurcations. The subsystems are coupled via their scalar quantities (e.g., trade couples economic output, diffusion couples populations); that coupling moves their bifurcations. The model elucidates two ways in which sudden changes can propaga...

  9. Industrial arsenic contamination causes catastrophic changes in freshwater ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guangjie; Shi, Haibin; Tao, Jianshuang; Chen, Li; Liu, Yuanyuan; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Xiaohai; Smol, John P.

    2015-11-01

    Heavy metal pollution is now widely recognized to pose severe health and environmental threats, yet much of what is known concerning its adverse impacts on ecosystem health is derived from short-term ecotoxicological studies. Due to the frequent absence of long-term monitoring data, little is known of the long-tem ecological consequences of pollutants such as arsenic. Here, our dated sediment records from two contaminated lakes in China faithfully document a 13.9 and 21.4-fold increase of total arsenic relative to pre-1950 background levels. Concurrently, coherent responses in keystone biota signal pronounced ecosystem changes, with a >10-fold loss in crustacean zooplankton (important herbivores in the food webs of these lake systems) and a >5-fold increase in a highly metal-tolerant alga. Such fundamental ecological changes will cascade through the ecosystem, causing potentially catastrophic consequences for ecosystem services in contaminated regions.

  10. Catastrophic chromosomal restructuring during genome elimination in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Ek Han; Henry, Isabelle M; Ravi, Maruthachalam; Bradnam, Keith R; Mandakova, Terezie; Marimuthu, Mohan Pa; Korf, Ian; Lysak, Martin A; Comai, Luca; Chan, Simon Wl

    2015-01-01

    Genome instability is associated with mitotic errors and cancer. This phenomenon can lead to deleterious rearrangements, but also genetic novelty, and many questions regarding its genesis, fate and evolutionary role remain unanswered. Here, we describe extreme chromosomal restructuring during genome elimination, a process resulting from hybridization of Arabidopsis plants expressing different centromere histones H3. Shattered chromosomes are formed from the genome of the haploid inducer, consistent with genomic catastrophes affecting a single, laggard chromosome compartmentalized within a micronucleus. Analysis of breakpoint junctions implicates breaks followed by repair through non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) or stalled fork repair. Furthermore, mutation of required NHEJ factor DNA Ligase 4 results in enhanced haploid recovery. Lastly, heritability and stability of a rearranged chromosome suggest a potential for enduring genomic novelty. These findings provide a tractable, natural system towards investigating the causes and mechanisms of complex genomic rearrangements similar to those associated with several human disorders. PMID:25977984

  11. Eradicating Catastrophic Collapse in Interdependent Networks via Reinforced Nodes

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Xin; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2016-01-01

    In interdependent networks, it is usually assumed, based on percolation theory, that nodes become nonfunctional if they lose connection to the network giant component. However, in reality, some nodes, equipped with alternative resources, together with their connected neighbors can still be functioning once disconnected from the giant component. Here we propose and study a generalized percolation model that introduces a fraction of reinforced nodes in the interdependent networks that can function and support their neighborhood. We analyze, both analytically and via simulations, the order parameter$-$the functioning component$-$comprising both the giant component and smaller components that include at least one reinforced node. Remarkably, we find that for interdependent networks, we need to reinforce only a small fraction of nodes to prevent abrupt catastrophic collapses. Moreover, we find that the universal upper bound of this fraction is 0.1756 for two interdependent Erd\\H{o}s-R\\'{e}nyi (ER) networks, regula...

  12. Can non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics solve the magnetic braking catastrophe?

    CERN Document Server

    Wurster, James; Bate, Matthew R

    2015-01-01

    We investigate whether or not the low ionisation fractions in molecular cloud cores can solve the `magnetic braking catastrophe', where magnetic fields prevent the formation of circumstellar discs around young stars. We perform three-dimensional smoothed particle non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the gravitational collapse of one solar mass molecular cloud cores, incorporating the effects of ambipolar diffusion, Ohmic resistivity and the Hall effect alongside a self-consistent calculation of the ionisation chemistry assuming 0.1 micron grains. When including only ambipolar diffusion or Ohmic resistivity, discs do not form in the presence of strong magnetic fields, similar to the cases using ideal MHD. With the Hall effect included, disc formation depends on the direction of the magnetic field with respect to the rotation vector of the gas cloud. When the vectors are aligned, strong magnetic braking occurs and no disc is formed. When the vectors are anti-aligned, a disc with radius of 13AU ca...

  13. Catastrophe analysis on pillar instability considered mining effect

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping

    2005-01-01

    The instability of the pillar was discussed based on the potential energy principle and the cusp catastrophe theory, and a simplified mechanical model of the pillar was established considering the mining effect. The necessary-sufficient conditions, the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were deduced. The results show that the instability of the pillar is related to the properties of the rock, the external force and the relative stiffness of the elastic area to the plastic area. The instability of system is like to occur with the enlarging of the softening area or the decreasing of E/λ. The calculation done shows that the estimated results correspond to practical experience.

  14. CUSP CATASTROPHE MODEL OF INSTABILITY OF PILLAR IN ASYMMETRIC MINING

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping

    2005-01-01

    A simplified mechanical model of pillar-hang wall was established in asymmetric mining and instability of the system was discussed by means of potential energy principle and cusp catastrophe theory. The necessary-sufficient condition and the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were derived,which established foundation for quantifying of the instability of system. The results show that instability of the system is related to load and its stiffness distribution. The critical load increases with the increasing relative stiffness, and the system is more stable. On the contrary, the instability of system is likely to occur, and the released energy is larger in instability process, and the harm is more tremendous accordingly.Furthermore, an example was calculated, and the estimated results are in good agreement with the practical experience, which provide basis for mining order and arranging stope.

  15. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  16. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  17. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  18. Cylinder on an incline as a fold catastrophe system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The motion of a cylinder on an inclined plane, acted upon by a torque along its axis, is studied theoretically and experimentally. It is shown that the potential for the centre-of-mass exhibits the features of a fold catastrophe potential, the control parameter being related to the strength of the torque. This parameter determines whether or not the system experiences stable equilibrium positions. If it does, and depending on the initial conditions, it may perform oscillations around an equilibrium position, or it may cross a no-return point and roll down. A cylinder with a magnet inside, placed on an inclined plane in a region where a uniform magnetic field is present, is a real example of such a system. We constructed that system and report the data obtained in a set of experiments

  19. Surviving protein quality control catastrophes--from cells to organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Kim; Bertolotti, Anne

    2015-11-01

    Organisms have evolved mechanisms to cope with and adapt to unexpected challenges and harsh conditions. Unfolded or misfolded proteins represent a threat for cells and organisms, and the deposition of misfolded proteins is a defining feature of many age-related human diseases, including the increasingly prevalent neurodegenerative diseases. These protein misfolding diseases are devastating and currently cannot be cured, but are hopefully not incurable. In fact, the aggregation-prone and potentially harmful proteins at the origins of protein misfolding diseases are expressed throughout life, whereas the diseases are late onset. This reveals that cells and organisms are normally resilient to disease-causing proteins and survive the threat of misfolded proteins up to a point. This Commentary will outline the limits of the cellular resilience to protein misfolding, and discuss the possibility of pushing these limits to help cells and organisms to survive the threat of misfolding proteins and to avoid protein quality control catastrophes. PMID:26483388

  20. Vegetative disthonic syndrome treatment in children, suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegetative diatonic syndrome was diagnosed in 28,3% of children, arrived to sanatorium from the regions, suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe. In order to make correction of this kind of pathology 62 children had undergone the treatment on the base of specially developed programs: 1-st - complex of spirulina reception, infrared radiation treatment, collar-neck zone massage, 2-nd - glycine reception and collar-neck zone massage, 3-d - short wave frequency therapy on active points (control group - 37 children). As the result, in children of the main group in comparison with control, for certain decreased somatic complains quantity (p=0,008), neurological state (p=0,0009) and autonomic system state (p=0,05) improved. Thus the suggested complexes exert gentle influence upon mane autonomic system characteristics and promote subsidence of clinical manifestation of the vegetative diatonic syndrome. (Authors)

  1. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  2. The Chernobyl catastrophe is the most terrible civil nuclear incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The 4th nuclear reactor of the Chernobyl NPP exploded on 26 April 1986, 20 years ago. It's the most terrible nuclear civil accident of all times. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident led to contamination of 3,1 million ha of arable land, 1,5 million ha of natural pasture land, 3,5 million ha of forests and changed the lifestyle for millions of people in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. It is well known that the mortality in the contaminated areas (infant mortality by cancer) drastically increased. The Chernobyl catastrophe is presented , such as a sad example for humanity, a complex political international, economical, social and, particular, ecological problem according to the traditional and new studies for the development of the nucleotide contaminated territories: 1. Financing of safety of stopped working 4th nuclear reactor (security of covering system) and of work another 3 blocks at the Chernobyl NPP. Detailed control of international financial support for guarantee the safety, security of the Chernobyl NPP and sustainable development for rehabilitation of the affected zones and people. 2. It should be marked increase in medical, demographic analysis and in social, economical protection of the people in the contaminated areas. 3. Analysis and synthesis, monitoring of the long-time data results due to environmental, ecological, social and political consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. 4. Protection from the possible terrorist (extra) actions and (inter) damage or incident function of the Chernobyl plant, such as an old generation nuclear power. 5. Planned budget for future studies in the affected territories and flexibility actually realization of budget (State and International). 6. Nuclear refuse and aria/water protection in the Ukraine, Belarus and Russia contaminated zones. 7. Risk evaluation of not good function of NPPs which are situated in Russia, Ukraine and in another places (always remembering that the Chernobyl catastrophe is the

  3. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  4. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, M.J. de; Struys, M.M.; Versteegen, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investig

  5. Pain-related catastrophizing in pain patients and people with pain in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, M. J.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Versteegen, G. J.

    2012-01-01

    Background Catastrophizing is a defining factor in the pain experience and strongly contributes to the prediction of various aspects of health. Catastrophizing is not just present in pain patients, but may also be present in people with non-clinical pain. The aim of the present study is to investiga

  6. Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张亚平; 裴玉龙

    2004-01-01

    This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.

  7. Analysis of Interlayer Connection Catastrophe Characteristics in Internet AS level Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-yuan Jia

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on CAIDA’s (cooperative association for Internet data analysis statistics at AS-level collected from April 2009 to April 2010, it is found that network size, degree correlations and clustering have changed significantly three times. According to the definition of k-core, the Internet topology is divided into different levels. In this paper, by analyzing the changing connection on each level at the three time spots, we found that the connection difference between the highest and the lowest level varies cyclically. Before Internet has significant change, the connection difference between the highest and the lowest shell changes acutely. At that time point it is the later stage of the fluctuation period which is the accumulation of small fluctuation. The concept of catastrophe coefficient is proposed for quantifying the probability of Internet catastrophe so that the catastrophe coefficient of Internet could be calculated on real time, and the catastrophe time spots could be predicted. Using real data for verification, it turns out that catastrophe coefficient can accurately predict the "giant fluctuations" occurrence in the macroscopic structure. With the proposal of the concept of catastrophe coefficient, the research can play an important guiding role in understanding the actual network internal development and changes, analyzing the cause of Internet catastrophe, preventing devastating catastrophe, planning and further re-designing Ipv6.

  8. Household Catastrophic Healthcare Expenditure and Impoverishment Due to Rotavirus Gastroenteritis Requiring Hospitalization in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Loganathan, T; Lee, WS; Lee, KF; Jit, M.; Ng, CW

    2015-01-01

    Background While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. Objectives We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. Methods A...

  9. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit...

  10. Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk financing and Pooled Insurance Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Pollner, John D

    2001-01-01

    This report examines the constraints and opportunities in implementing a catastrophe insurance system which can resolve the key obstacles impeding broader implementation of a risk funding approach. The four main pillars in such a strategy involve: 1) strengthening insurance sector regulatory requirements and supervision; 2) establishing broad-based pooled catastrophe funding structures wit...

  11. Yoga attitudes in chronic low back pain: Roles of catastrophizing and fear of movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combs, Martha A; Thorn, Beverly E

    2015-08-01

    Chronic low back pain is a significant public health problem and, although underused, yoga may be an effective complementary treatment. The current study examined associations of pain catastrophizing and fear of movement with attitudes toward yoga in adults with chronic low back pain. Participants completed three quantitative questionnaires assessing specific constructs: beliefs about yoga, fear of movement, and pain catastrophizing. A semi-structured in-person interview was then conducted to obtain specific pain-related information. Hierarchical regression and mediational analyses were used to test hypotheses. Consistent with the fear-avoidance model of chronic pain, catastrophizing and fear of movement were negatively associated with yoga attitudes. Specifically, fear of movement was a mediator between catastrophizing and attitudes toward yoga. Individuals with higher levels of catastrophizing and fear of movement may be less likely to consider a pain treatment involving physical movement. PMID:26256134

  12. Gérard Brugnot, 2008, Les Catastrophes Naturelles, Paris, Le Cavalier Bleu, 127 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Callens

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available La collection « idées reçues » se propose de faire le point sur les savoirs et les croyances à propos d’un thème donné. Le thème des « catastrophes naturelles » est présenté par Gérard Brugnot, qui commente 16 idées reçues sur ces risques majeurs, regroupées dans quatre chapitres : 1/ « il y a toujours eu des catastrophes naturelles, il y en aura toujours », 2/ « Des catastrophes vraiment toutes naturelles ? », 3/ « On peut réduire les effets des catastrophes naturelles », 4/ « Catastrophes n...

  13. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  14. Gravothermal catastrophe in the framework of f(R) gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The anomalous rotation curves of spiral galaxies, the mass discrepancy in elliptical galaxies as well as in clusters of galaxies, are all well known observational aspects that led to the necessity of considering huge amounts of the so called dark matter at a galactic and extra-galactic scale. Relative to the mass discrepancy in the elliptical and in clusters of galaxies, the total mass can be estimated in two ways: I) by taking into account the motion of its members, the virial theorem provides MV , the so called virial mass; II) considering the total sum of each individual member's mass one may estimate the total baryonic mass MB. The mass discrepancy then arises when one verifies that MV is considerably greater than MB, typical values are MV / MB ∼ 20 - 30. There is nowadays a great debate about the mechanism behind this observed mass discrepancy. As long as the possibility that Einstein's and Newton's theories of gravity breaks down at galactic scale can not be excluded a priori, a number of galactic environment scenarios and modified gravity have been proposed in the literature. Perhaps the much simple of these models, f(R) gravity examines the possibility of modifying Einstein's general relativity by adding terms proportional to powers of the Ricci scalar R to the Einstein-Hilbert Lagrangian. Specific models of f(R) gravity were already examined in the literature which can explain the Pioneer anomaly and the flat rotation curves of spiral galaxies. As specified above, the virial theorem is in the core of the observed mass discrepancy. However, when one consider the virial theorem in the framework of f(R) gravity, supplementary geometric terms arise in the generalized Einstein's equations providing an effective contribution to the gravitational energy. Here we investigate how the total virial mass, which is proportional to the effective mass associated with the new geometrical term, affects the so called gravothermal catastrophe in the context of f

  15. Gravothermal catastrophe in the framework of f(R) gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Thiago B.R.F.; Santos, Janilo [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), RN (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    , affects the so called gravothermal catastrophe in the context of f(R) gravity. As is well known, the thermodynamics of self-gravitating systems shows a stable branch for negative specific heat, a phenomenon known as gravothermal catastrophe. This can be derived from the virial theorem applied to astrophysical systems and has important consequences for the stability of nuclear burning in the cores of stars. (author)

  16. Evaluation of catastrophic failure risk in pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the Nordic countries a four-year research programme in the area of elastic-plastic fracture mechanics was initiated in 1985. Seven laboratories from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are participating in the programme. The main technical objective of the programme is to clarify how catastrophic fracture can be prevented in pressure vessels and piping by using the leak-before-break concept. The major experimental effort of the programme is destructive pressurization of a large size pressure vessel up to rupture. The vessel has dimensions similar to a nuclear reactor pressure vessel and it has been in operation for 20 years in a Finnish oil refinery plant. The materials characterization of the vessel has been partially carried out within an extensive Nordic round-robin programme. Two pressure tests have been carried out. In both tests an artificial sharp axial surface flaw was made on the inner wall of the vessel. The experimental details of the last test including repair welding of the vessel, flaw prepration, instrumentation and material characterization are described in this report. The fracture behaviour as well as experimental results are reported. The failure pressure is compared to estimates of the analytical pre-test calculations

  17. Role of senescence and mitotic catastrophe in cancer therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukla Yogeshwer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Senescence and mitotic catastrophe (MC are two distinct crucial non-apoptotic mechanisms, often triggered in cancer cells and tissues in response to anti-cancer drugs. Chemotherapeuticals and myriad other factors induce cell eradication via these routes. While senescence drives the cells to a state of quiescence, MC drives the cells towards death during the course of mitosis. The senescent phenotype distinguishes tumor cells that survived drug exposure but lost the ability to form colonies from those that recover and proliferate after treatment. Although senescent cells do not proliferate, they are metabolically active and may secrete proteins with potential tumor-promoting activities. The other anti-proliferative response of tumor cells is MC that is a form of cell death that results from abnormal mitosis and leads to the formation of interphase cells with multiple micronuclei. Different classes of cytotoxic agents induce MC, but the pathways of abnormal mitosis differ depending on the nature of the inducer and the status of cell-cycle checkpoints. In this review, we compare the two pathways and mention that they are activated to curb the growth of tumors. Altogether, we have highlighted the possibilities of the use of senescence targeting drugs, mitotic kinases and anti-mitotic agents in fabricating novel strategies in cancer control.

  18. Chandler wobble excitation by catastrophic flooding of the Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Boschi

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available It is now widely accepted that during the late Quaternary glaciation the Black Sea formed an isolated inland lake (Ross et al., 1970. New geological data and the recognition of sudden population movements away from the Black Sea coasts suggest that the basin was rapidly flooded through the Bosphorus sill 7150 years bp, causing a sea level rise of ~ 135 m in a few years (Ryan et al., 1997. As shown here, such a catastrophic redistribution of mass has significantly altered the amplitude of the Chandler wobble, the free motion of the pole of rotation around the main inertia axis of the Earth (Lambeck, 1980. We also estimate that during the flooding the pole of rotation was diverted from its secular path and shifted by ~ 30 m, at a rate of several meters per year. These rotational variations are found to be orders of magnitude larger than those produced by other short-term geophysical processes, such as earthquakes seismic moment release (O'Connell and Dziewonski, 1979; Chao et al.,1996, anthropogenic water impoundment (Chao, 1995, and tectonic mass movements (Alfonsi and Spada, 1998. The Black Sea flooding may thus be responsible for the most drastic change in the rotational parameters of the Earth in the recent history of our planet.

  19. Vital signs: a banner year, barring political and economic catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barring political and economic catastrophes, key indicators in the oil and gas industry point to a good year in 2003. The optimistic forecast is based on strong commodity prices through the first quarter despite the anticipated military action in Iraq, strong land sale activity, capacity employment of drilling fleets and seriously depleted natural gas storage caverns across North America. In terms of well completions, Canada is looking for 17,500 completions in 2003, an 11 per cent increase over 2002. Crude markets are expected to be slightly weaker, but prices are expected to remain in the $27 to $29 range for many months to come, owing to the tight inventory situation throughout the western world. Similar fundamentals were responsible for strong performance by Canadian energy exporters in 2002, as shown by a number of statistical tables that form part of this article. Electricity prices are also expected to remain higher than in 2002, given that natural gas prices are high and snow packs lower than last year. FirstEnergy Capital Corporation pegged the Alberta power price to average $64.46 per megawatt-hour this year, up from $55.77 per megawatt-hour last year. tabs

  20. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. PMID:23763387

  1. Catastrophic debris avalanche deposit of Socompa volcano, northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, P. W.; Gardeweg, M.; Ramirez, C. F.; Rothery, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Between 10,000 and 500 yr ago the Socompa volcano in northern Chile experienced a catastrophic collapse of a 70 deg sector of the original cone, causing a debris avalanche that descended nearly 3000 m vertically and traveled more than 35 km from the volcano. The deposits cover some 490 sq km and have a minimum volume of 15 cu km. Parts of the original cone slumped in a nearly coherent form and are now preserved as large blocks more than 400 m high. The primary avalanche traveled northwestward over sloping ground before coming to rest transiently, forming a prominent marginal ridge, and then slid away northeastward to form a secondary flow, overriding much of the primary avalanche deposit. Abundant, prismatic, jointed dacite blocks within the debris avalanche deposit and a thin, fine-grained pumiceous deposit beneath it suggest that the collapse was triggered by magmatic activity and may have been accompanied by a violent lateral blast. Collapse was followed by eruption of pumiceous pyroclastic flows and extrusion of voluminous dacite domes.

  2. Reconciling the infrared catastrophe and observations of SN 2011fe

    CERN Document Server

    Fransson, Claes

    2015-01-01

    The observational effects of the 'Infrared Catastrophe' are discussed in view of the very late observations of the Type Ia SN 2011fe. Our model spectra at 1000d take non-local radiative transfer into account, and find that this has a crucial impact on the spectral formation. Although rapid cooling of the ejecta to a few 100 K occurs also in these models, the late-time optical/NIR flux is brighter by 1-2 magnitudes due to redistribution of UV emissivity, resulting from non-thermal excitation and ionization. This effect brings models into better agreement with late-time observations of SN 2011fe and other Type Ia supernovae, and offers a solution to the long standing discrepancy between models and observations. The models show that spectral formation shifts from Fe II and Fe III at 300d to Fe I at 1000d, which explains the apparent wavelength shifts seen in SN2011fe. We discuss effects of time dependence and energy input from 57Co, finding both to be important at 1000d.

  3. Quantum resonance catastrophe for conductance through a periodically driven barrier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuberg, Daniel; Reyes, Sebastián A.; Eggert, Sebastian

    2016-05-01

    We consider the quantum conductance in a tight-binding chain with a locally applied potential which is oscillating in time. The steady state for such a driven impurity can be calculated exactly for any energy and applied potential using the Floquet formalism. The resulting transmission has a nontrivial, nonmonotonic behavior depending on incoming momentum, driving frequency, and the strength of the applied periodic potential. Hence there is an abundance of tuning possibilities, which allows finding the resonances of total reflection for any choice of incoming momentum and periodic potential. Remarkably, this implies that even for an arbitrarily small infinitesimal impurity potential it is always possible to find a resonance frequency at which there is a catastrophic breakdown of the transmission T =0 . The points of zero transmission are closely related to the phenomenon of Fano resonances at dynamically created bound states in the continuum. The results are relevant for a variety of one-dimensional systems where local AC driving is possible, such as quantum nanodot arrays, ultracold gases in optical lattices, photonic crystals, or molecular electronics.

  4. Catastrophic anoxia in the chesapeake bay in 1984.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seliger, H H; Boggs, J A; Biggley, W H

    1985-04-01

    In 1984, four climatic sequences combined to produce what may be a major anoxic catastrophe in the northern Chesapeake Bay, sufficient to severely threaten the major benthic species. These sequences are (i) the highest late-winter streamflow on record from the Susquehanna River watershed; (ii) streamflows from the Susquehanna River for the consecutive months of June, July, and August that are higher by 2 standard deviations than the respective monthly mean values measured over the last 34 years; (iii) a stationary high in August off the Atlantic Coast; and (iv) an absence of strong storm events in summer. An empirical equation is proposed for the prediction of the monthly trend of dissolved oxygen decrease in terms of a temperature-dependent subpycnoclinal respiration and a modified estuarine Richardson number. As of 23 August 1984, the summer pycnocline of the northern bay had eroded upward from its historically recorded depth below 10 meters to an abnormally shallow 5 meters, with higher stratification than in earlier years. Dissolved oxygen concentrations directly below the pycnocline decreased to zero during June, 2 months earlier than for previous wet years. At present, oxygen-deficient waters containing significant concentrations of hydrogen sulfide have penetrated into Eastern Bay and the Choptank and Potomac rivers. Because most remaining shellfish-spawning and seed-bed areas in these tributaries are located at depths between 4 and 8 meters, the continued absence of major destratifying events will prolong the present anoxic trend and may result in high benthic mortalities. PMID:17811570

  5. Radiation-induced mitotic catastrophe in PARG-deficient cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation is a post-translational modification of proteins involved in the regulation of chromatin structure, DNA metabolism, cell division and cell death. Through the hydrolysis of poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR), Poly(ADP-ribose) glyco-hydrolase (PARG) has a crucial role in the control of life-and-death balance following DNA insult. Comprehension of PARG function has been hindered by the existence of many PARG isoforms encoded by a single gene and displaying various subcellular localizations. To gain insight into the function of PARG in response to irradiation, we constitutively and stably knocked down expression of PARG isoforms in HeLa cells. PARG depletion leading to PAR accumulation was not deleterious to undamaged cells and was in fact rather beneficial, because it protected cells from spontaneous single-strand breaks and telomeric abnormalities. By contrast, PARG-deficient cells showed increased radiosensitivity, caused by defects in the repair of single- and double-strand breaks and in mitotic spindle checkpoint, leading to alteration of progression of mitosis. Irradiated PARG-deficient cells displayed centrosome amplification leading to mitotic supernumerary spindle poles, and accumulated aberrant mitotic figures, which induced either polyploidy or cell death by mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest that PARG could be a novel potential therapeutic target for radiotherapy. (authors)

  6. Can non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics solve the magnetic braking catastrophe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurster, James; Price, Daniel J.; Bate, Matthew R.

    2016-03-01

    We investigate whether or not the low ionization fractions in molecular cloud cores can solve the `magnetic braking catastrophe', where magnetic fields prevent the formation of circumstellar discs around young stars. We perform three-dimensional smoothed particle non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the gravitational collapse of one solar mass molecular cloud cores, incorporating the effects of ambipolar diffusion, Ohmic resistivity and the Hall effect alongside a self-consistent calculation of the ionization chemistry assuming 0.1 μm grains. When including only ambipolar diffusion or Ohmic resistivity, discs do not form in the presence of strong magnetic fields, similar to the cases using ideal MHD. With the Hall effect included, disc formation depends on the direction of the magnetic field with respect to the rotation vector of the gas cloud. When the vectors are aligned, strong magnetic braking occurs and no disc is formed. When the vectors are anti-aligned, a disc with radius of 13 au can form even in strong magnetic when all three non-ideal terms are present, and a disc of 38 au can form when only the Hall effect is present; in both cases, a counter-rotating envelope forms around the first hydrostatic core. For weaker, anti-aligned fields, the Hall effect produces massive discs comparable to those produced in the absence of magnetic fields, suggesting that planet formation via gravitational instability may depend on the sign of the magnetic field in the precursor molecular cloud core.

  7. Catastrophe versus instability for the eruption of a toroidal solar magnetic flux rope

    CERN Document Server

    Kliem, B; Forbes, T G; Priest, E R; Török, T

    2014-01-01

    The onset of a solar eruption is formulated here as either a magnetic catastrophe or as an instability. Both start with the same equation of force balance governing the underlying equilibria. Using a toroidal flux rope in an external bipolar or quadrupolar field as a model for the current-carrying flux, we demonstrate the occurrence of a fold catastrophe by loss of equilibrium for several representative evolutionary sequences in the stable domain of parameter space. We verify that this catastrophe and the torus instability occur at the same point; they are thus equivalent descriptions for the onset condition of solar eruptions.

  8. Catastrophe versus instability for the eruption of a toroidal solar magnetic flux rope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kliem, B.; Lin, J. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Forbes, T. G. [Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03824 (United States); Priest, E. R. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, North Haugh, St Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Török, T., E-mail: bkliem@uni-potdam.de [Predictive Science Inc., 9990 Mesa Rim Rd., Ste 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The onset of a solar eruption is formulated here as either a magnetic catastrophe or as an instability. Both start with the same equation of force balance governing the underlying equilibria. Using a toroidal flux rope in an external bipolar or quadrupolar field as a model for the current-carrying flux, we demonstrate the occurrence of a fold catastrophe by loss of equilibrium for several representative evolutionary sequences in the stable domain of parameter space. We verify that this catastrophe and the torus instability occur at the same point; they are thus equivalent descriptions for the onset condition of solar eruptions.

  9. Vers une ontologie des risques et des catastrophes : le modèle conceptuel

    OpenAIRE

    Provitolo, Damienne; Dubos-Paillard, Edwige; Müller, Jean-Pierre

    2009-01-01

    Nous présentons une réflexion sur la construction d'une ontologie formalisée du domaine des risques et des catastrophes. L'objectif est de revenir sur les concepts essentiels permettant de caractériser le risque, l'accident, la catastrophe et les notions associées, et d'organiser ces concepts entre eux par des relations. Nous présentons donc le modèle conceptuel du domaine des risques et des catastrophes, modèle réalisé à partir des diagrammes de classe d'UML(Unified Modelling Language). Si l...

  10. Catastrophe versus instability for the eruption of a toroidal solar magnetic flux rope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The onset of a solar eruption is formulated here as either a magnetic catastrophe or as an instability. Both start with the same equation of force balance governing the underlying equilibria. Using a toroidal flux rope in an external bipolar or quadrupolar field as a model for the current-carrying flux, we demonstrate the occurrence of a fold catastrophe by loss of equilibrium for several representative evolutionary sequences in the stable domain of parameter space. We verify that this catastrophe and the torus instability occur at the same point; they are thus equivalent descriptions for the onset condition of solar eruptions.

  11. Networks of Zeeman catastrophe machines for the investigation of complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The investigation of chaotic motion and cooperative systems presents a great opportunity to involve modern physics into the basic course of mechanics taught to BSc-level students. In our previous paper (2014 Eur. J. Phys. 35 015018), it was demonstrated that a Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to gain introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also very interesting and show typical chaotic features. In this paper, we present a novel construction consisting of Zeeman machines linked into a network. Although Zeeman networks can be built with almost arbitrary topology, our discussion is restricted to a system where Zeeman machines are arranged in a two-dimensional periodical lattice and the angular variables of the machines are limited to discrete values only. It will be shown that the Zeeman-crystal is appropriate for studying the properties of a broad range of complex systems. Using NetLogo simulations (second- and first-order) phase transitions, its ferromagnetic- and anti-ferromagnetic-type behaviour is demonstrated. A limiting case of the theoretical model of Zeeman-crystal leads to a model that is analogous to the Potts clock model used frequently in statistical physics. The present paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where downloadable simulations, which are discussed in the paper, can be found. (paper)

  12. Anderson’s orthogonality catastrophe in one dimension induced by a magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to Anderson’s orthogonality catastrophe, the overlap of the N-particle ground states of a free Fermi gas with and without an (electric) potential decays in the thermodynamic limit. For the finite one-dimensional system various boundary conditions are employed. Unlike the usual setup the perturbation is introduced by a magnetic (vector) potential. Although such a magnetic field can be gauged away in one spatial dimension there is a significant and interesting effect on the overlap caused by the phases. We study the leading asymptotics of the overlap of the two ground states and the two-term asymptotics of the difference of the ground-state energies. In the case of periodic boundary conditions our main result on the overlap is based upon a well-known asymptotic expansion by Fisher and Hartwig on Toeplitz determinants with a discontinuous symbol. In the case of Dirichlet boundary conditions no such result is known to us and we only provide an upper bound on the overlap, presumably of the right asymptotic order. (paper)

  13. 30 years life with Chernobyl, 5 years life with Fukushima. Health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IPPNW report on health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima covers the following issues: Part.: 30 years life with Chernobyl: Summarized consequences of Chernobyl, the accident progression, basic data of the catastrophe, estimation of health hazards as a consequence of the severe accident of Chernobyl, health consequences for the liquidators, health consequences for the contaminated population, mutagenic and teratogenic effects. Part B: 5 years life with Fukushima: The start of the nuclear catastrophe, emissions and contamination, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on human health, thyroid surveys in the prefecture Fukushima, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on the ecosystem, outlook.

  14. Wavelength dependence of catastrophic optical damage threshold in 980nm semiconductor diode lasers

    OpenAIRE

    Lock, D; Sweeney, SJ; Adams, AR

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the wavelength dependence of the catastrophic optical damage current in 980nm lasers. Using high pressure and low temperature techniques, we find an intrinsic dependence of this threshold on wavelength.

  15. Establishment and Application of Assessment Indicator System of Agricultural Catastrophe Vulnerability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    To give play to the role of agricultural catastrophe risk fund in spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,we select natural conditions,economic conditions,social conditions,as the external vulnerability assessment indicators;select commodity rate of agricultural products,substitutability of agricultural products,the extent of agricultural products being related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood,as the internal vulnerability assessment indicators.We assign weight to indicators using Analytic Hierarchy Process,and establish assessment indicator system of agricultural catastrophe vulnerability,to analyze the compensation for losses of different agricultural products arising from agricultural catastrophe in different regions.And we take the case of rice in Sichuan Province,to demonstrate the role this indicator system.

  16. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  17. Mindfulness, functioning and catastrophizing after multidisciplinary pain management for chronic low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, Emma Louise; Atherton, Rachel Jane; Robertson, Noelle; Walsh, David Andrew; Gillett, Raphael

    2012-03-01

    We examined mindfulness in people with chronic low back pain who were attending a multidisciplinary pain management programme. Participants completed questionnaires at baseline (n=116) and after a 3-month cognitive-behaviourally informed multidisciplinary intervention (n=87). Self-reported mindfulness was measured before and after the intervention, and relationships were explored between mindfulness, disability, affect and pain catastrophizing. Mindfulness increased following participation in the intervention, and greater mindfulness was predictive of lower levels of disability, anxiety, depression and catastrophizing, even when pain severity was controlled. Mediator analyses suggested that the relationship between mindfulness and disability was mediated by catastrophizing. It is possible that cognitive-behavioural interventions and processes can affect both catastrophizing and mindfulness. PMID:22240149

  18. Catastrophe plan for areas surrounding nuclear facilities in the Federal Republic of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the FRG, the federal government is responsible for the construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as well as defence measures against the 'damaging effect of ionizing radiation'. The responsibility of guarding public safety and order from danger lies with the states. Catastrophe defense is a special part in this scope of duties. It guards against such interferences in public safety and order which, because of their extraordinary consequences and the necessity of specially organized defense, we call catastrophes. The duty of catastrophe defence is to prevent or alleviate immediate consequences for the population from high amounts of released radioactivity. This means that the catastrophe defence is equipped to prevent or aleviate so called non-stochastic damages, especially early damages, and to reduce individual risk

  19. Transient probabilities for a simple birth-death-immigration process under the influence of total catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randall J. Swift

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available The transient probabilities for a simple birth-death-immigration process are considered. Catastrophes occur at a constant rate, and when they occur, reduce the population to size zero.

  20. Extravasational side effects of cytotoxic drugs: A preventable catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In addition to their therapeutic effects on malignant cells, cytotoxic agents have the potential of causing destruction of healthy, normal cells. Extravasation of the drug can produce extensive necrosis of the skin and subcutaneous tissue. Management of these extravasational effects differs from one centre to another and prevention is usually strongly emphasized. We analyzed our management of 12 patients referred to us over five years with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs and reviewed the literature for different approaches with regard to prophylaxis and management of extravasational effects. Materials and Methods: This study was done in the department of plastic surgery of a medical college. Five years of retrospective data were studied of patients referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Results: We managed 12 cases referred to our department with extravasation of cytotoxic drugs. Mitomycin C was used in seven cases (58.33%, vincristine in two cases (16.66%, 5-Florouracil in another two cases while doxorubicin was responsible for extravasational side effects in one case (8.33%. The size of necrosis ranged from 3.75 cm 2 to 25 cm 2 with average size of 9.6 cm 2 . In terms of the area involved, the dorsum of the hand was involved in five cases (41.66%, the wrist in another five cases (41.66%, and the cubital fossa in the remaining two cases (16.66%. All cases were treated with daily debridement of necrotic tissue, saline dressing, and split skin grafting. Conclusion: Extravasation of cytotoxic drugs further increases the suffering of cancer patients. This catastrophe can only be avoided by vigilance and immediate application of antidotes. Once the local toxicity of the drugs takes effect, morbidity is unavoidable

  1. Fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction of catastrophic Mediterranean floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebora, N.; Gabellani, S.; Rudari, R.; Silvestro, F.; Parodi, A.; Gochis, D.

    2012-12-01

    On November 4th, 2011, the city of Genoa, Italy, located between the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Apennine mountains, was witness to a catastrophic flash flood. About 500 millimeters of rain -a third of the average annual rainfall- fell in approximately six hours. The waters that flooded the town center equated to an approximately 300 year flood event. Six people perished, commercial property was inundated, cars were swept away and many trees were uprooted. We analyze the performance of cloud-permitting (1 km) model simulations of the convective system responsible for this extreme event using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF, version 3.3) with its associated hydrological modeling extension ('WRF-Hydro') focusing on the utility of model quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for flash flood prediction. WRF model skill is assessed with respect to specification of cloud microphysics, convection and land surface physics parameterizations. The QPF results strongly suggest an event dominated by comparatively shallow warm rain processes where local maxima were the product of both synoptic scale dynamics and orographic enhancement over the Apennine mountain range. Land and sea surface temperature forcing was assess but found to be secondary in importance. Streamflow prediction skill from the fully coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system was compared against observations and against offline or 'uncoupled' hydrological model runs, driven by several quantitative precipitation estimate (QPEs) products. The results illustrate the significant sensitivity of the predicted (simulated) streamflow event to QPF (QPE) skill and emphasize the importance of taking into account many factors and sources of error in the hydrometeorological prediction chain. The end product of this study is a comprehensive evaluation and justification for optimal configurations of the WRF-Hydro modeling system for high-impact Mediterranean flood events for use in future forecasting

  2. Super-catastrophic disruption of asteroids at small perihelion distances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granvik, Mikael; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Jedicke, Robert; Bolin, Bryce; Bottke, William F.; Beshore, Edward; Vokrouhlický, David; Delbò, Marco; Michel, Patrick

    2016-02-01

    Most near-Earth objects came from the asteroid belt and drifted via non-gravitational thermal forces into resonant escape routes that, in turn, pushed them onto planet-crossing orbits. Models predict that numerous asteroids should be found on orbits that closely approach the Sun, but few have been seen. In addition, even though the near-Earth-object population in general is an even mix of low-albedo (less than ten per cent of incident radiation is reflected) and high-albedo (more than ten per cent of incident radiation is reflected) asteroids, the characterized asteroids near the Sun typically have high albedos. Here we report a quantitative comparison of actual asteroid detections and a near-Earth-object model (which accounts for observational selection effects). We conclude that the deficit of low-albedo objects near the Sun arises from the super-catastrophic breakup (that is, almost complete disintegration) of a substantial fraction of asteroids when they achieve perihelion distances of a few tens of solar radii. The distance at which destruction occurs is greater for smaller asteroids, and their temperatures during perihelion passages are too low for evaporation to explain their disappearance. Although both bright and dark (high- and low-albedo) asteroids eventually break up, we find that low-albedo asteroids are more likely to be destroyed farther from the Sun, which explains the apparent excess of high-albedo near-Earth objects and suggests that low-albedo asteroids break up more easily as a result of thermal effects.

  3. Terrestrial evidence of a nuclear catastrophe in paleoindian times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A common problem at paleoindian sites in the northeastern region of North America is the recovery of radiocarbon dates that are much younger than their western counterparts, sometimes by as much as 10,000 years. Other methods like thermoluminescence, geoarchaeology, and sedimentation suggest that the dates are incorrect. Evidence has been mounting that the peopling of the Americas occurred much earlier than 12,000 bp. The discovery of tracks and micrometeorite-like particles in paleoindian artifacts across North America demonstrates they were bombarded during a cosmic event. Measurements of Uranium 235 (235U), depleted by 17-77%, and enhanced concentrations of Plutonium 239 (239Pu), from neutron capture on Uranium 238 (238U), in artifacts, associated chert types, and sediments at depth indicates that the entire prehistoric North American landscape was bombarded by thermal neutrons. Radiocarbon dating assumes that there is no substantial change in isotopic composition over time. A large thermal neutron event would convert residual Nitrogen 14 (14N) in charcoal to Carbon 14 (14C) thus resetting the radiocarbon date to a younger value and pushing back the date that paleoindians occupied the Americas by thousands of years. Analysis of data from 11 locations across North America indicates there were episodes of cosmic ray bombardments of the prehistoric landscape in Late Glacial times. Examination of the radiocarbon record suggests these events were coupled with geomagnetic excursions at 41,000, 33,000, and 12,500 bp and irradiated the landscape with massive thermal neutron fluxes of the order of approximately1015 neutrons/cm2. These data provide a clear body of terrestrial evidence supporting either one of two longstanding hypotheses for catastrophe in paleoindian times: (1) a giant solar flare during a geomagnetic excursion as explored by Wolfendale and Zook, and (2) a supernova shockwave as forwarded by Brackenridge, Clarke, and Dar. The evidence is reviewed, and

  4. Using Catastrophe-Linked Securities to Diversity Insurance Risk: A Financial Analysis of Cat Bonds

    OpenAIRE

    Henri Louberge; Evis Kellezi; Manfred Gilli

    1999-01-01

    Severe natural catastrophes in the early 1990s generated a lack of financial capacity in the catastrophe line of the global reinsurance market. The finance industry reacted to this situation by issuing innovative products designed to spread the excess risk more widely among international investors (risk securitization). The paper reviews these developments and emphasizes their significance with respect to the economic theory of risk exchanges. Special attention is devoted to the case of catas...

  5. Use of catastrophe risk models in assessing sovereign food security for risk transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma, Mohan; Hohl, Roman

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses how catastrophe crop risk models can be used to assess food security needs at the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. The rationale for a system to evaluate food security needs at the national level is discussed. The role of technology and remote sensing data availability as an enabler of catastrophe crop risk models is discussed followed by a description...

  6. Financial Innovation in Property Catastrophe Reinsurance: The Convergence of Insurance and Capital Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Chichilnisky, Graciela

    1996-01-01

    The property catastrophe reinsurance industry faces a major challenge. Since 1989, climatic volatility has produced unprecedented insured losses of $43 billion, $18 billion of which were from Hurricane Andrew alone. A surge of insurer defaults and dramatic changes in capacity and pricing have followed in their wake. Catastrophic risks must be addressed with innovative financial approaches that bring the insurance industry closer to the securities industry. This article discusses the new f...

  7. Equilibrium balking strategies in the single server Markovian queue with catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Boudali, Olga

    2011-01-01

    We consider a Markovian queue subject to Poisson generated catastrophes. Whenever a catastrophe occurs, all customers are forced to abandon the system, the server is rendered inoperative and an exponential repair time is set on. We assume that the arriving customers decide whether to join the system or balk, based on a natural reward-cost structure. We study the balking behavior of the customers and derive the corresponding Nash equilibrium strategies.

  8. Modelling catastrophic risk in international equity markets: An extreme value approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, John

    2011-01-01

    This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using absolute returns for markets exhibiting diverging levels of risk. From an application to leading markets, the letter finds that the Nikkei is more prone to catastrophic risk than the FTSE and Dow Jones Indexes.

  9. Collaboration or Control?: the struggle for power in catastrophic disaster response

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardo, Tony S.

    2007-01-01

    Past domestic catastrophic disasters have required massive Department of Defense (DoD) Title 10 involvement. During Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina, DoDs initial response, although critical, was criticized as slow. The increased risks to the United States of cataclysmic events have solidified DoDs mandatory response to future events. This has punctuated the importance of DoDs initial response capability. Historically, DoDs response to catastrophic disasters was instantaneous. This was in p...

  10. Cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, and validity of the German version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, K.; Sprott, H.; Mannion, A. F.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: In patients with chronic pain, catastrophizing is a significant determinant of self-rated pain intensity and disability. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was developed to assist with both treatment planning and outcome assessment; to date, no German version has been validated. METHODS: A cross-cultural adaptation of the PCS into German was carried out, strictly according to recommended methods. A questionnaire booklet containing the PCS, visual analogue scales (numeric rating s...

  11. The importance of catastrophizing for successful pharmacological treatment of peripheral neuropathic pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toth C

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Cory Toth, Shauna Brady, Melinda Hatfield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Objective: Catastrophizing may be a negative predictor of pain-related outcomes. We evaluated the impact of catastrophizing upon success of first-line pharmacotherapy in the management of neuropathic pain (NeP due to peripheral polyneuropathy. Methods: Patients with confirmed NeP with NeP Visual Analog Scale (VAS pain severity score ≥4 (0–10 scale completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire (CSQ catastrophizing subscale at baseline. Pharmacological therapy consisting of first-line agents gabapentin, pregabalin, or a tricyclic antidepressant was initiated. Other measures examined included the Karnofsky Performance Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, EuroQol Quality of Life Health Questionnaire, and Modified Brief Pain Inventory. At 3 and 6 months, questionnaires were repeated and adverse effect reporting was completed. Outcome measures assessed were pharmacotherapy success (≥30% relief of NeP and tolerability over 6 months of follow-up. Bivariate relationships using Pearson product-moment correlations were examined for baseline CSQ catastrophizing subscale score and the change in the NeP VAS scores and medication discontinuation. Results: Sixty-six patients were screened, 62 subjects participated, and 58 subjects (94% completed the final follow-up visit. Greater catastrophizing was associated with poor pain relief response and greater likelihood of discontinuation of pharmacotherapy, reports of greater disability, and impaired quality of life. Duration of pain was negatively associated with likelihood of pharmacotherapy success. Conclusion: Catastrophizing exerts maladaptive effects on outcomes with pharmacotherapy in NeP patients. Detection of catastrophizing during clinical visits when pharmacological therapy is being considered can be a predictive factor for patient outcomes. Keywords: neuropathic pain

  12. The reasons for the application of chaos theory to the analysis of catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valery, Kudin

    2014-05-01

    The study of catastrophes is necessary for understanding the nature of the interaction between the individual and the universal in the process of the development of complex systems. Chaos theory, allowing describing adaptation and bifurcation mechanisms for the development of systems, defines the catastrophes as a transition of the system into a different state (change of structure). The previous state of the system is destroyed because of fluctuations, which do not play a role in the development of the system until it reaches the instability region that is inherent to any system. The catastrophe is considered in this theory as a stage in the evolution of the system, and thus emphasizes the importance of catastrophes for the development of any system. We rarely manage events comprehensively, as events are always subject to changes like gas molecules changing the trajectory of motion each moment under the influence of countless blows. The concept of catastrophes is much broader and is generally applicable to any final result of collision of opposing aspirations. Philosophical definition of catastrophes comes down to the destruction of the unity, accompanied by violent collision between different parts, the growing disruption, failure to prevent crossing the dangerous threshold... As a final vertex of action, disaster is not, however, directly its end: the action may continue after the catastrophe, but in the direction that is determined by the character of opposing aspirations. Major catastrophes, which have already destroyed and continue to ravage the world today, come from a superficial use of the laws of the development of complex systems and, in particular, of individual techniques of the chaos theory.

  13. Catastrophizing and fear of tinnitus predict quality of life in patients with chronic tinnitus

    OpenAIRE

    Cima, Rilana FF; Crombez, Geert; Vlaeyen, Johan WS

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: It is well established that catastrophic misinterpretations and fear are involved in the suffering and disability of patients with chronic pain. This study investigated whether similar processes explain suffering and disability in patients with chronic tinnitus. We hypothesized that patients who catastrophically (mis)interpret their tinnitus would be more fearful of tinnitus, more vigilant toward their tinnitus, and report less quality of life. Moreover, tinnitus-related fear was ...

  14. Validity and Reliability of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

    OpenAIRE

    Ayse Kart

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Importance of catastrophic cognitions is well known for the development and maintance of panic disorder. Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire (CCQ) measures thoughts associated with danger and was originally developed by Khawaja (1992). In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of CCQ- Turkish version. Material and Method: CCQ was administered to 250 patients with panic disorder. Turkish version of CCQ was created by translation, back-translation and pilot as...

  15. Childhood Trauma and Pain and Pain Catastrophizing in Adulthood: A Cross-Sectional Survey Study

    OpenAIRE

    Sansone, Randy A.; Watts, Daron A.; Wiederman, Michael W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Previous studies have indicated relationships between trauma in childhood and pain in adulthood, although some studies have reported no such relationships and challenge the methodologies of large-scale community samples. In this study involving a clinical sample, we examined relationships among (1) childhood trauma at ages 12 or younger, (2) rated pain for 3 time points in adulthood, and (3) pain catastrophizing (ie, catastrophic thoughts and feelings about pain).

  16. A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

  17. Using of catastrophe theory for processing of experimental results measured in low-temperature plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For acoustoplasma of CO2 laser the obtained family of dynamic volt-ampere characteristics for different modulation frequencies of the discharge current is described by catastrophe theory. We propose a method of processing the experimental results, which allows obtaining not only qualitative but also quantitative characteristics of the control parameters. The best agreement with experimental data is obtained for 'dovetail catastrophe'. The areas of changing of control parameters are determined

  18. Cusp catastrophe of symmetry breaking in two-component Bose-Einstein condensates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bifurcation analysis is applied to the spontaneous spatial symmetry breaking occurring in the ground state of two-component Bose-Einstein condensates. The cusp catastrophe describing the supercritical pitchfork bifurcation associated with the symmetry breaking is derived via the identification of the local curvature of the Gross-Pitaevskii energy functional. The bifurcation diagram and universal scaling laws for the eigenvalue and energy are obtained from the catastrophe function

  19. Prediction of catastrophe theory for heavy-ion collisions at high energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studying the nature of limiting fragmentation of nuclei in high energy heavy-ion collisions has shown that the dynamic system of the nucleus is inclined to enter a nonequilibrium state, schottische and disintegrate on separate nucleons under conditions typical to each collision. There is a question: how the phenomenon of multifragmentation is possible here, i. e. formation of several nucleus with masses on interval from a nucleon up to a material nucleus A in a final state. What is it - debris of a material nucleus or newly created daughter nuclei? The purpose of offered report is discussion of this question. The initial for us statement is taken from the theory of dynamic systems. Chaos is a result of hashing of phase space which is carried out by means of operations of distension and compression. The appropriate transformation are called baker-transformation or Smale's horseshoe. The geometrical picture of chaos is a folded relief of multi-dimensional phase space. The stochastic amplification is understood as growth of folder number and their size. In typical interactions of massive ions, chaos formation conditions are provided automatically due to alternate force influence of Coulomb and Yukawa fields - compression is replaced by distension, and distension - by compression. Extending this representation on a case of massive ion collision, we supplement it accounting a possibility of constituents (nucleons) strong interaction on small distances. The easiest way to make it is approximating minima of potential function V(x, c) in catastrophe theory by rectangular holes of Fermi-gas in nuclear physics. The catastrophe theory is necessary to find connection between channels of fragments birth of different charge and masses, proceeding from the general form of a multi-dimensional phase space relief (a kind of potential function). The main result which can be taken from this theory at the given stage of researches consists in the general form of a curve of a

  20. Pain catastrophizing and interpersonal problems: a circumplex analysis of the communal coping model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gurtman, Michael B

    2004-08-01

    Using the circumplex model of interpersonal behavior [Handbook of research methods in clinical psychology, 1982], this study tested the communal coping model of catastrophizing (CCM) in a large (N = 179) sample of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a common, benign chronic pain disorder associated with significant painful extraintestinal comorbidity (e.g. headache, low back pain). Patients completed the Coping Strategies Questionnaire, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems. The main findings were: (1) individuals who reported higher levels of catastrophizing described greater interpersonal problems; (2) the interpersonal problems described by catastrophizers fell within the friendly and friendly submissive quadrants of the circumplex supporting the notion that they have an interpersonal style demanding support and care-taking [Pain 103 (2003) 151]; (3) the pain coping behavior most strongly associated with interpersonal problems was catastrophizing; and (4) the relationship between interpersonal problems and catastrophizing remained after removing the influence of general symptomatic distress (i.e. an overall tendency to complain of psychological problems in general). In general, data provide evidence supporting the interpersonal distinctiveness of pain catastrophizing as postulated by the CCM. Advantages of a circumplex model and of interpersonal theory for understanding and testing the CCM are discussed. PMID:15288400

  1. Relationships Between Refraining From Catastrophic Thinking, Repetitive Negative Thinking, and Psychological Distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiura, Tomoko; Sugiura, Yoshinori

    2016-10-01

    Skills to refrain from catastrophic thinking were negatively related to worry and a wide range of psychological distress. Repetitive negative thinking (including worry) is proposed as a common etiological factor for a wide range of psychological distress. Therefore, reduced repetitive negative thinking would mediate the negative relation between refraining from catastrophic thinking and psychological distress (depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsessions and compulsions). As an overlap between five indices of psychological distress was expected, we first computed latent factors underlying them, which were then predicted by refraining from catastrophic thinking and repetitive negative thinking. Cross-sectional questionnaire data from 125 nonclinical voluntarily participating students (M age = 19.0 years, SD = 3.6; 54% women) supported the predictions: refraining from catastrophic thinking was negatively correlated with depression, social anxiety, phobia, generalized anxiety, and obsession and compulsion. Repetitive negative thinking mediated the negative relationship between refraining from catastrophic thinking and latent factors underlying psychological distress (Fear and Distress). Refraining from catastrophic thinking may be negatively correlated with psychological distress due to its negative relation to repetitive negative thinking. PMID:27511967

  2. Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mwai

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

  3. Polymorphism in serotonin receptor 3B is associated with pain catastrophizing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Horjales-Araujo

    Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a coping style characterized by excessively negative thoughts and emotions in relation to pain, is one of the psychological factors that most markedly predicts variability in the perception of pain; however, only little is known about the underlying neurobiology. The aim of this study was to test for associations between psychological variables, such as pain catastrophizing, anxiety and depression, and selected polymorphisms in genes related to monoaminergic neurotransmission, in particular serotonin pathway genes. Three hundred seventy-nine healthy participants completed a set of psychological questionnaires: the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck's Depression Inventory, and were genotyped for 15 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in nine genes. The SNP rs1176744 located in the serotonin receptor 3B gene (5-HTR3B was found to be associated with pain catastrophizing scores: both the global score and the subscales of magnification and helplessness. This is the first study to show an association between 5-HTR3B and PCS scores, thus suggesting a role of the serotonin pathway in pain catastrophizing. Since 5-HTR3B has previously been associated with descending pain modulation pathways, future studies will be of great interest to elucidate the molecular pathways involved in the relation between serotonin, its receptors and pain catastrophizing.

  4. Sensitization of catastrophic cognition in cognitive-behavioral therapy for panic disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kataoka Miyako

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cognitive model of panic disorder have proposed that panic attacks result from the catastrophic misinterpretation of certain bodily sensations. Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT for panic disorder aims to change these catastrophic cognitions. CBT intervention successfully caused reduction of catastrophic cognitions and symptomatic improvement in the majority of cases. However there are some patients who fail to modify their catastrophic cognitions or rather experience an increase in them during CBT treatment. It is clinically and theoretically important to understand about cognitive sensitization of panic disorder during CBT sessions. The purpose of the present study is 1 to clarify the baseline characteristics of panic patients who would experience sensitization of their catastrophic cognitions through the CBT treatment, and 2 to examine the course of symptomatic changes for them. Methods Of ninety-five outpatients with panic disorder started the group CBT program for treatment of panic disorder, seventy-nine completer were classified as "cognitively sensitized (CS" or "cognitive responding (CR" or "no-responder" according to the difference of the Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire score across treatment. We compared the CS and CR patients in terms of their baseline clinical characteristics. Then we assessed the symptomatic and functional changes for both groups. Results At the start of the CBT program, despite of the same degree of panic disorder severity, CS scored significantly lower on ACQ score than CR. CS also showed significantly lower score on anticipatory anxiety compared to CR. At the end of treatment CS showed significant improvement in severity of panic disorder, although the degree of improvement was smaller than that for CR. Then CS would progressively reduce their agoraphobic fear and avoidance, and would improve their functional impairment up to three month of follow-up. Conclusion Panic patients who would

  5. The Error and Repair Catastrophes: A Two-Dimensional Phase Diagram in the Quasispecies Model

    OpenAIRE

    Tannenbaum, Emmanuel; Shakhnovich, Eugene I.

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a two gene, single fitness peak model for determining the equilibrium distribution of genotypes in a unicellular population which is capable of genetic damage repair. The first gene, denoted by $ \\sigma_{via} $, yields a viable organism with first order growth rate constant $ k > 1 $ if it is equal to some target ``master'' sequence $ \\sigma_{via, 0} $. The second gene, denoted by $ \\sigma_{rep} $, yields an organism capable of genetic repair if it is equal to some target ...

  6. Emergency obstetric care in Mali: catastrophic spending and its impoverishing effects on households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Arsenault

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To investigate the frequency of catastrophic expenditures for emergency obstetric care, explore its risk factors, and assess the effect of these expenditures on households in the Kayes region, Mali. METHODS: Data on 484 obstetric emergencies (242 deaths and 242 near-misses were collected in 2008-2011. Catastrophic expenditure for emergency obstetric care was assessed at different thresholds and its associated factors were explored through logistic regression. A survey was subsequently administered in a nested sample of 56 households to determine how the catastrophic expenditure had affected them. FINDINGS: Despite the fee exemption policy for Caesareans and the maternity referral-system, designed to reduce the financial burden of emergency obstetric care, average expenses were 152 United States dollars (equivalent to 71 535 Communauté Financière Africaine francs and 20.7 to 53.5% of households incurred catastrophic expenditures. High expenditure for emergency obstetric care forced 44.6% of the households to reduce their food consumption and 23.2% were still indebted 10 months to two and a half years later. Living in remote rural areas was associated with the risk of catastrophic spending, which shows the referral system's inability to eliminate financial obstacles for remote households. Women who underwent Caesareans continued to incur catastrophic expenses, especially when prescribed drugs not included in the government-provided Caesarean kits. CONCLUSION: The poor accessibility and affordability of emergency obstetric care has consequences beyond maternal deaths. Providing drugs free of charge and moving to a more sustainable, nationally-funded referral system would reduce catastrophic expenses for households during obstetric emergencies.

  7. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Hewitt

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et imprévisible, ainsi que sur la réponse post-catastrophe (phase d’urgence. La prise en compte d’autres facteurs apparaît nécessaire. Les héritages des histoires économique et sociale des territoires montagnards, et, plus particulièrement, les relations tissées avec les acteurs métropolitains et le reste du pays, contribuent, de manière décisive, à façonner la réalité contemporaine des montagnes. Le développement des transports, l’extraction de ressources et le tourisme, qui profitent à l’État et s’inscrivent dans la tendance internationale, peuvent paradoxalement accroître le risque pour les populations montagnardes et saper les stratégies préexistantes destinées à réduire le risque environnemental. Plus que tout, l’urbanisation rapide des montagnes en général, et de l’Himalaya en particulier, a largement contribué à intensifier les risques et à créer de nouvelles formes de vulnérabilités. La majeure partie de l’histoire actuelle des montagnes reste influencée par les déplacements contraints de population et la densification des centres urbains. Cela doit faire l’objet d’une analyse particulière. L’expansion rapide du bâti et des infrastructures, mis à part la sécurité de ces structures, engendre des risques nouveaux et complexes et détériore parallèlement le rapport habituel des hommes à leurs terres, en dégradant ainsi la capacité de résilience des individus. Dans la

  8. Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

  9. Catastrophe model and its experimental verification of static loading rock system under impact load

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    According to the catastrophe model for impact buckling of static loading structures, a new catastrophe model for impact loading failure of a static loading rock system was established, and one dimension (1D) catastrophe model was analyzed. The analysis results indicate that the furcation collection where catastrophe may take place is not only decided by mechanical system itself but also relates to exterior loading, which is different from the results obtained under mono-static loading where the bifurcation collection is only determined by mechanics of the system itself and has nothing to do with exterior loading. In addition, the corresponding 1D coupled static-dynamic loading experiment is designed to verify the analysis results of catastrophe model The test is done with Instron 1342 electroservo controlled testing system, in which medium strain rate is caused by monotony rising dynamic load. The parameters are obtained combining theoretical model with experiment. The experimental and theoretical curves of critical dynamic load vs static load are rather coincided, thus the new model is proved to be correct.

  10. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  11. Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Norwegian pain catastrophizing scale in patients with low back pain

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandes Linda; Storheim Kjersti; Lochting Ida; Grotle Margreth

    2012-01-01

    Background Pain catastrophizing has been found to be an important predictor of disability and days lost from work in patients with low back pain. The most commonly used outcome measure to identify pain catastrophizing is the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). To enable the use of the PCS in clinical settings and research in Norwegian speaking patients, the PCS had to be translated. The purpose of this study was therefore to translate and cross-culturally adapt the PCS into N...

  12. The influence of catastrophizing on treatment outcome in patients with non-specific low back pain: A systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Wertli, Maria M; Burgstaller, Jakob M.; Weiser, Sherri; Steurer, Johann; Kofmehl, Reto; Held, Ulrike

    2014-01-01

    Study Design. Systematic reviewObjective. The aim of the current study was to assess the effect of catastrophizing on treatment efficacy and outcome in patients treated for low back pain.Summary of Background Data. Psychological factors including catastrophizing thoughts are believed to increase the risk for chronic low back pain. The influence of catastrophizing is debated.Methods. In September 2012 the following databases were searched: BIOSIS, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, OTSeeker, Pe...

  13. Pain-related Catastrophizing and Perceived Social Responses: Inter-relationships in the Context of Chronic Pain

    OpenAIRE

    Buenaver, Luis F.; Edwards, Robert R.; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A.

    2006-01-01

    Pain-related coping, particularly catastrophizing, plays a significant role in shaping pain responses. One way catastrophizing is hypothesized to amplify pain and disability is via its effect on patients, social environments (e.g., communal coping model), though empirical support is limited. The present study tested whether the association between catastrophizing and deleterious pain-related outcomes was mediated by patients’ perceptions of significant others’ responses to their pain in a sam...

  14. Association between catastrophizing and self-rated pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain

    OpenAIRE

    K. Meyer; Tschopp, A.; Sprott, H; Mannion, A. F.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Catastrophizing plays an important role in models of pain chronicity, showing a consistent correlation with both pain intensity and disability. It is conceivable that these associations are mediated or confounded by other psychological attributes. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relative influence of catastrophizing and other psychological variables on pain and disability in patients with chronic low back pain. METHODS: Seventy-eight patients completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Ro...

  15. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  16. Bifurcations and catastrophes in a nonlinear dynamical model of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge line index and its evolution mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Zhang, Ren; Li, Ming; Wang, Shuo; Zeng, Wenhua; Wang, Zhengxin

    2016-04-01

    Despite much previous effort, the establishment of an accurate model of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and analysis of its chaotic behavior has proved to be difficult. Based on a phase-space technique, a nonlinear dynamical model of the WPSH ridge line and summer monsoon factors is constructed here from 50 years of data. Using a genetic algorithm, model inversion and parameter optimization are performed. The Lyapunov spectrum, phase portraits, time history, and Poincaré surface of section of the model are analyzed and an initial-value sensitivity test is performed, showing that the model and data have similar phase portraits and that the model is robust. Based on equilibrium stability criteria, four types of equilibria of the model are analyzed. Bifurcations and catastrophes of the equilibria are studied and related to the physical mechanism and actual weather phenomena. The results show that the onset and enhancement of the Somali low-level jet and the latent heat flux of the Indian monsoon are among the most important reasons for the appearance and maintenance of the double-ridge phenomenon. Violent breakout and enhancement of the Mascarene cold high will cause the WPSH to jump northward, resulting in the "empty plum" phenomenon. In the context of bifurcation and catastrophe in the dynamical system, the influence of the factors considered here on the WPSH has theoretical and practical significance. This work also opens the way to new lines of research on the interaction between the WPSH and the summer monsoon system.

  17. Quasi-classical approximation in vortex filament dynamics. Integrable systems, gradient catastrophe and flutter

    CERN Document Server

    Konopelchenko, B G

    2012-01-01

    Quasiclassical approximation in the intrinsic description of the vortex filament dynamics is discussed. Within this approximation the governing equations are given by elliptic system of quasi-linear PDEs of the first order. Dispersionless Da Rios system and dispersionless Hirota equation are among them. They describe motion of vortex filament with slow varying curvature and torsion without or with axial flow. Gradient catastrophe for governing equations is studied. It is shown that geometrically this catastrophe manifests as a fast oscillation of a filament curve around the rectifying plane which resembles the flutter of airfoils. Analytically it is the elliptic umbilic singularity in the terminology of the catastrophe theory. It is demonstrated that its double scaling regularization is governed by the Painleve' I equation.

  18. Loading-rate-independent delay of catastrophic avalanches in a bulk metallic glass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. H.; Chan, K. C.; Wang, G.; Wu, F. F.; Xia, L.; Ren, J. L.; Li, J.; Dahmen, K. A.; Liaw, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    The plastic flow of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) is characterized by intermittent bursts of avalanches, and this trend results in disastrous failures of BMGs. In the present work, a double-side-notched BMG specimen is designed, which exhibits chaotic plastic flows consisting of several catastrophic avalanches under the applied loading. The disastrous shear avalanches have, then, been delayed by forming a stable plastic-flow stage in the specimens with tailored distances between the bottoms of the notches, where the distribution of a complex stress field is acquired. Differing from the conventional compressive testing results, such a delaying process is independent of loading rate. The statistical analysis shows that in the specimens with delayed catastrophic failures, the plastic flow can evolve to a critical dynamics, making the catastrophic failure more predictable than the ones with chaotic plastic flows. The findings are of significance in understanding the plastic-flow mechanisms in BMGs and controlling the avalanches in relating solids.

  19. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai;

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single......-event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...... understanding of catastrophic failure of IGBTs, the state-of-the-art research on their failure behaviors and failure mechanisms is presented in this paper. Moreover, various fault-tolerant design methods, to prevent converter level malfunctions in the event of IGBT failure, are also reviewed....

  20. Analgesic effect of perioperative escitalopram in high pain catastrophizing patients after total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Hansen, Torben Bæk;

    2015-01-01

    has not previously been investigated. The authors hypothesized that perioperative escitalopram would reduce pain after TKA in high pain catastrophizing patients. METHODS: A total of 120 pain catastrophizing patients (selected using the pain catastrophizing scale as preoperative screening tool......) scheduled for TKA were randomized in a double-blind manner to either 10 mg escitalopram or placebo daily from preanesthesia to postoperative day 6 in addition to a standardized analgesic regime. The primary outcome was pain upon ambulation 24 h after surgery. Secondary outcomes were overall pain during well......-defined mobilizations and at rest from 2 to 48 h and from days 2 to 6, morphine equivalents, anxiety, depression, and side effects. RESULTS: Pain upon ambulation (mean [95% CI]) 24 h after surgery in the escitalopram versus placebo group was 58 (53 to 64) versus 64 (58 to 69), the mean difference being -5 (-13 to 3), P...

  1. Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law

  2. Evaluation of the propensity for coal spontaneous combustion based on catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yu-tao; ZHANG Xi-chen; TIEN Jerry C; LI Ya-qing

    2011-01-01

    Generally,different prevention measures should be taken according to spontaneous combustion propensities.The current methods to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion,such as chromatographic method of oxygen adsorption,oxidation kinetics method and activation energy method,are mostly affected by human factors.Their boundaries among different classes of propensities were all established by subjective judgments.A new evaluation method using catastrophe theory is introduced.This method can accurately depict the process of coal spontaneous combustion and the evaluation index,"catastrophe temperature",be obtained based on the model.In terms of catastrophe temperature,the spontaneous combustion propensity of different coals can be sequenced.Experimental data indicate that this method is appropriate to describe the spontaneous combustion process and to evaluate the propensity of coal spontaneous combustion.

  3. CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hai-xia; WAN Zhong-juan; YU Shao-peng; LUO Xin-zheng; SUN Guang-you

    2004-01-01

    Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thom Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.

  4. 2-(3-Methoxyphenyl)-5-methyl-1,8-naphthyridin-4(1H)-one (HKL-1) induces G2/M arrest and mitotic catastrophe in human leukemia HL-60 cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2-(3-Methoxyphenyl)-5-methyl-1,8-naphthyridin-4(1H)-one (HKL-1), a 2-phenyl-1,8-naphthyridin-4-one (2-PN) derivative, was synthesized and evaluated as an effective antimitotic agent in our laboratory. However, the molecular mechanisms are uncertain. In this study, HKL-1 was demonstrated to induce multipolar spindles, sustain mitotic arrest and generate multinucleated cells, all of which indicate mitotic catastrophe, in human leukemia HL-60 cells. Western blotting showed that HKL-1 induces mitotic catastrophe in HL-60 cells through regulating mitotic phase-specific kinases (down-regulating CDK1, cyclin B1, CENP-E, and aurora B) and regulating the expression of Bcl-2 family proteins (down-regulating Bcl-2 and up-regulating Bax and Bak), followed by caspase-9/-3 cleavage. These findings suggest that HKL-1 appears to exert its cytotoxicity toward HL-60 cells in culture by inducing mitotic catastrophe. Highlights: ► HKL-1 is a potential antimitotic agent against HL-60 cells. ► HKL-1 induces spindle disruption and sustained resulted in mitotic catastrophe. ► CENP-E and aurora B protein expressions significantly reduced. ► Bcl-2 family protein expressions altered and caspase-9/-3 activation. ► HKL-1 is an attractive candidate for possible use as a novel antimitotic agent.

  5. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tharani Loganathan

    Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

  6. Requiem for analytical psychology: a reflection on Jung's (anti)catastrophic psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Marco Heleno

    2014-02-01

    This article is an interpretation of analytical psychology in the light of the catastrophic vision and dreams that Jung had in 1913 and 1914. It is shown how the guiding spirit of Jung's psychological project is to be found in that psychic material. Then it is proposed that the completion of the symbolic catastrophe displayed in Jung's last vision (1961) points to the end of the psychological foundations upon which analytical psychology is built, and thus to its cultural obsolescence, extensive to any psychology grounded in Jung's notion of 'soul'. PMID:24467353

  7. Roll stability catastrophe mechanism of a flooded ship on regular sea waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on a typical one-free-degree ship roll motion equation, the cusp catastrophe model is built including the bifurcation set equation, splitting factor ‘u’ and regular factor ‘v’, where both ‘u’ and ‘v’ are further expressed with typical flooded ship parameters. Then, the roll catastrophe mechanism is analyzed mainly by means ‘u’, under the given parameters of a typical trawler boat. The aim of this research is to reveal the mutagenic mechanism of the roll stability and provide a reference for improving ship roll stability. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  8. Catastrophes and Conservation: Lessons from Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Estes J.A.

    1992-02-01

    Full Text Available The Exxon Valdez spill is broadly perceived as an environmental catastrophe. However, expected catastrophic declines in the region's sea otter population cannot be demonstrated, not because they didn't occur but because the necessary information is lacking. Furthermore, efforts to rehabilitate oiled sea otters following the spill were extremely expensive and ineffective. Some improvements are possible with better planning. However, post-spill capture and rehabilitation probably can not be used to substantially reduce sea otter losses from future spills, and the use of such measures to conserve populations is unrealistic.

  9. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  10. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  11. Model and algorithm for optimization of rescue center location of emergent catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ding-wei; ZHANG Guo-xiang

    2006-01-01

    The location of rescue centers is a key problem in optimal resource allocation and logistics in emergency response.We propose a mathematical model for rescue center location with the considerations of emergency occurrence probability,catastrophe diffusion function and rescue function.Because the catastrophe diffusion and rescue functions are both nonlinear and time-variable,it cannot be solved by common mathematical programming methods.We develop a heuristic embedded genetic algorithm for the special model solution.The computation based on a large number of examples with practical data has shown us satisfactory results.

  12. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  13. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  14. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    precipitation, as well as magmatic activity and eruptions. (3) Risk of collapse begins with initial magmatic activity and increases as intrusion proceeds. An archetypal debris flow from volcanic terrain occurred in Colombia with a tectonic earthquake (M 6.4) in 1994. The Rio Piez conveyed a catastrophic wave of debris flow over 100 kilometers, coalesced from multiple slides of surflcial material weakened both by weathering and by hydrothermal alteration in a large strato- volcano. Similar seismogenic flows occurred in Mexico in 1920 (M -6.5), Chile in 1960 (M 9.2), and Ecuador in 1987 (M 6.1 and 6.9). Velocities of wave fronts in two examples were 60 to 90 km/hr (17-25 meters per second) over the initial 30 kilometers. Volcano flank and sector collapses may produce untransformed debris avalanches, as occurred initially at Mount St. Helens in 1980. However, at least as common is direct transformation of the failed mass to a debris flow. At two other volcanoes in the Cascade Range-- Mount Rainier and Mount Baker--rapid transformation and high mobility were typical of most of at least 15 Holocene flows. This danger exists downstream from many stratovolcanoes worldwide; the population at risk is near 150,000 and increasing at Mount Rainier. The first step in preventing future catastrophes is documenting past flows. Deposits of some debris flows, however, can be mistaken for those of less-mobile debris avalanches on the basis of mounds formed by buoyed megaclasts. Megaclasts may record only the proximal phase of a debris flow that began as a debris avalanche. Runout may have extended much farther, and thus furore flow mobility may be underestimated. Processes and behaviors of megaclast-bearing paleoflows are best inferred from the intermegaclast matrix. Mitigation strategy can respond to volcanic flows regardless of type and trigger by: (1) Avoidance: Limit settlement in flow pathways to numbers that can be evacuated after event warnings (flow is occurring). (2) Instrumental even

  15. Forecasting scenarios of collision catastrophes produced by celestial body falls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shor, V.; Kochetova, O.; Chernetenko, Y.; Zheleznov, N.; Deryugin, V.; Zaitsev, A.

    2014-07-01

    The subject under discussion arose in the course of developing a computer program, which gives the possibility for numerical and graphical modeling of the scenarios of catastrophes caused by collisions of cosmic bodies with the Earth. It is expected that this program can be used for computer-assisted training of the personnel of units of the Ministry for Emergency Situations in the case of a situation caused by the fall of a celestial body on the Earth. Also, it is anticipated that the program can be used in real situations when a dangerous body is discovered on an orbit leading to an imminent collision with the Earth. From the scientific point of view, both variants of use require solving of analogous tasks. In what follows, we discuss both variants. 1. The computation of the circumstances for a fall on the Earth (or approach within short distance) of a real body begins with the determination of its orbit from the observations available using the least-squares method. The mean square error of the representation of the observations on the base of the initial values of the coordinates and the velocities is computed, as well as their covariance matrix. Then, the trajectory of the body's motion is followed by numerical integration starting from the osculating epoch to the collision with the Earth or to its flyby. The computer program takes into account the various cases: at the initial moment, the body can move away from or approach the Earth, it can be outside the sphere of action or inside it. At the moment, when the body enters the sphere of action, the coordinates of the center of the dispersion ellipse on the target plane are computed as well as the dimensions of its axes. Using these data, the probability of collision with the Earth is calculated. Then, the point of penetration of the body into the Earth's atmosphere at a given height above the level of the Earth geoid is determined. In case the body is passing by the Earth, the minimum distance of the body from

  16. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

    2016-04-01

    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain. PMID:26713422

  17. Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

  18. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...

  19. Collapsed Shape of Shallow Unlined Tunnels Based on Functional Catastrophe Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengping Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow unlined tunnels under conditions of plane strain. The analysis is performed following the framework from a branch of catastrophe theory, functional catastrophe theory. First, the basic principles of functional catastrophe theory are introduced. Then, an analytical solution for the shape curve of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel is derived using functional catastrophe theory based on the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The effects of the rock mass parameters of the proposed method on the shape and weight of the collapsing block are examined. Moreover, a critical cover depth expression to classify deep and shallow tunnels is proposed. The analytical results are consistent with those obtained by numerical simulation using the particle flow code, demonstrating the validity of the proposed analytical method. The obtained formulas can be used to predict the height and width of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel and to provide a direct estimate of the overburden on the tunnel lining. The obtained formulas can be easily used by tunnel engineers and researchers due to their simplicity.

  20. Explaining health care utilization for panic attacks using cusp catastrophe modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katerndahl, David

    2008-10-01

    Despite increased health care utilization, patients with panic disorder continue to report unmet needs. The objective was to compare the fit of linear and Cusp Catastrophe Modeling in explaining changes in utilization of emergency, general and mental health settings, and self-treatments for panic symptoms. This community-based study surveyed 97 subjects with panic attacks drawn from a sample of randomly-selected adults from randomly-selected households. The stressor (splitting) variable used was Phobic Anxiety while predisposing variables included Family Health Care Utilization, Perceived Life Threat and Need For Treatment, and Treatment Experience. Outcomes consisted of the number of sites and self-treatments used for panic symptoms when first seeking care and during the 2 months prior to survey. Use of mental health sites and self-treatments demonstrated superior modeling with cusp catastrophe approaches using treatment experience as the predisposing variable, accounting for 47% and 38% of variances respectively, improving the fit by over 20% compared to the best linear models in both cases. Cusp catastrophe modeling accounted for more variance than all linear models when describing use of mental health settings and self-treatments. Cusp catastrophe may explain bimodal distributions in behavior, delays in behavior change, and sudden shifts in behavior in stressful situations. PMID:18765074

  1. Pain Catastrophizing is Associated with Dental Pain in a Stressful Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C.-S.; Niddam, D.M.; Hsu, M.-L.; Hsieh, J.-C.

    2013-01-01

    Pain is associated with anxiety in a dental setting. It has remained unclear how cognitive-affective factors modulate pain and anxiety in a stressful context, such as receiving dental procedures. We hypothesized that both the situational factor (unpredictability about painful stimuli) and the trait factor (pain catastrophizing, i.e., the tendency to interpret pain in negative orientation) account for dental pain. Fifteen healthy participants were recruited to perform an associative learning task. They were asked to learn the pairing between visual cues and the intensity of incoming painful stimuli delivered at the right upper central incisor. Brain activation associated with pain was recorded by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The participants reported increased anxiety and pain in the stressful context, where stimuli intensity was not predicted by the preceding cue. The score of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was positively correlated with the increased pain modulated by unpredictability. Brain activation at the right posterior hippocampus, a region critically related to associative learning of aversive stimuli and context, was correlated with the individual catastrophizing level. Our findings suggest that both the situational factor (unpredictability) and the trait factor (catastrophizing) influence dental pain, highlighting the role of cognitive-affective factors in pain control of dental patients. PMID:23232145

  2. Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Porter, Catherine; White, Emily

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes the potential to combine catastrophe risk modelling (CAT risk modeling) with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realized shocks and household expenditure/consu...

  3. Methodological aspects of health evaluation of the population suffered after the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ecological situation in Belarus and the necessity of liquidation of medical consequences of the Chernobyl NPP Catastrophe demand many years' dynamic observation after the health condition of large people's contingents. At present this problem is being solved by the clinical follow up of the population undergone irradiation due to the Chernobyl catastrophe which is the basis of medical-prevention measures, directed to low medical consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe. All the information on population's health received during the clinical follow up is put to a special State Data Base which was started for a clinical follow op information support, carrying out scientific researches and receiving reliable data on medical- biological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe. At present there's a problem of correct evaluation of health changes of the population who need clinical follow up on all its levels. The problem of comparative analyses of stored data hasn't been solved yet. It's necessary to underline that illness data of the population suffered after the Chernobyl catastrophe received due to intensive clinical follow up can't be compared with illness data of the population in general received due to ordinary applies to hospitals. It would be methodologically incorrect. Besides all said above, including into the research all the classes and forms of illnesses according to IDC-9, IDC-10 (International Disease Classification 9,10) what in a great degree enlarges volume of the research and its expenses is irrational. While studying the Chernobyl catastrophe medical consequences one must include to the analysis classes and nosologic illness forms which level and dynamic changes connected in some extend to radiation irradiation. By doing this one can minimize the volume and the expenses in the research like this. In this situation it's necessary to state such population health indexes which level exposed to a distortion in the lowest degree in the result of

  4. Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

  5. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the techniqu

  6. Characteristics of cerebrovascular pathology in Chernobyl catastrophe after-effects liquidators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forty eight liquidators of Chernobyl catastrophe after-effects (1986-1987) had been observed for 10-12 years. Their clinical and psychological status, brain functional state, cerebral hemodynamics and results of magnet resonance tomography were assessed. Differential diagnostic criteria for vasomotor dystonia and cerebrovascular diseases were determined. Chronic cerebrovascular insufficiency was determined to increase in those persons (authors)

  7. Spatial ecology of peatland ecosystems: Spatial self-organization and catastrophic shifts in bogs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eppinga, M.B.

    2004-01-01

    Positive feedback interactions, as between plants and their abiotic environment, may have the consequence that an ecosystem has alternate stable equilibrium states. As a result, a gradual change in environmental conditions may lead to discontinuous, catastrophic shifts in such ecosystems. Until now,

  8. SOIL CONTAMINATION CAUSED BY EMERGENCY BIO-REDUCTION OF CATASTROPHIC LIVESTOCK MORTALITIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catastrophic regional losses of poultry and livestock have caused environmental officials in North America to seek emergency on-farm disposal alternatives that pose less pollution risk to soil and shallow groundwater than burial. Bio-decomposition of remains followed by land application of the resul...

  9. 78 FR 46256 - Security Program, Report of Suspected Crimes, Suspicious Transactions, Catastrophic Acts and Bank...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-31

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 748 Security Program, Report of Suspected Crimes, Suspicious Transactions, Catastrophic Acts and Bank Secrecy Act Compliance CFR Correction In Title 12 of the Code of Federal...

  10. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 749 - Catastrophic Act Preparedness Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... program address the following five elements: 1 See 12 CFR 748.1(b) concerning a FICU's reporting of any catastrophic act that occurs at its office to its regional director and 12 CFR 749.3 concerning the location of... addressed in 12 CFR 748.1(b); vi. Training and documentation of training to ensure all employees...

  11. Critical Periods and Catastrophic Interference Effects in the Development of Self-Organizing Feature Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Fiona M.; Thomas, Michael S. C.

    2008-01-01

    The use of self-organizing feature maps (SOFM) in models of cognitive development has frequently been associated with explanations of "critical" or "sensitive periods". By contrast, error-driven connectionist models of development have been linked with "catastrophic interference" between new knowledge and old knowledge. We introduce a set of…

  12. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and cata

  13. THE NONLINEAR CUSP-CATASTROPHE MODEL OF THE SEDIMENT TRANSPORT RATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In the catastrophe theory of nonlinear science,the intensity of water-flow and the coefficient of non-uniformsediment m are regarded as two bound variables, and the in-tensity of bed-load transport Φ as the state variable in the mo-tion of non-uniform sediment in cusp-catastrophe model.Based on the standard equation of the cusp-catastrophe theo-ry, the relation equation between the intensity of bed-loadtransport Φ and the intensity of water-flow has been derivedby used coordinate transform and topology transform. The e-quation of bed load transport rate was built on the cusp-catas-trophe theory of nonlinear science. The others are applied toverify this equation, that the results calculated by the cusp-ca-tastrophe equation agree well with the other equations. Thisindicates that the cusp-catastrophe equation is reasonable, and the results fully reflect the characteristics of threshold motionand transport of non-uniform sediment. The purpose of thispaper is to explore the incipient motion and transport laws ofnon-uniform sediment from the viewpoint of nonlinear science.

  14. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht;

    2010-01-01

    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  15. Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

  16. 灾难性医疗支出研究%Study on Catastrophic Health Expenditure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    褚福灵

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic heath expenditure occurs when the total out-of-pocket health payments are ≥40%of the household’s capacity to pay(non-living expenses). Studies have showed that the highest rate of catastrophic payments was 13%% in the world, and there were about 5% of poverty caused by serious illness. We should calculate the rate of catastrophic payment and poverty due to illness by using normative methods, and adopt comprehensive measures to prevent the occurrence of catastrophic health expenditure.%家庭的医疗费用支出等于或超过家庭支付能力(非生存支出)的40%时,该家庭即发生了灾难性医疗支出。世界范围内,家庭灾难性医疗支出发生率最高为13%,因病致贫发生率最高为5%。应采用规范的方法测算灾难性医疗支出发生率与因病致贫率,并采取综合措施防范灾难性医疗风险的发生。

  17. Observational support for the current sheet catastrophe model of substorm current disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It has recently been found that a one-dimensional current sheet equilibrium with a non-zero convection electric field, Ey, and a non-zero normal magnetic field component, Bn, can reach a point of catastrophe through either the reduction of the drift velocity, υD = cEy/Bn or the increase of Bn. This point of catastrophe coincides with a value of κA ≅ 0.7, where κA is the self-consistent value of κ = (Rmin/ρAmax)1/2 corresponding to ions of average energy. (Here Rmin is the minimum field-line radius of curvature and ρAmax is the maximum gyroradius for ions of average energy.) The point of catastrophe was found to be preceded by a twisting of the current sheet field-lines into the dawnward direction, i.e., by the development of a y-component of B, with odd symmetry in z, and a sign opposite Bx, where positive x is earthward, positive y is in the dawn-to-dusk direction and positive z is northward. Since the loss of the current sheet would causee the local configuration to become more dipolar, it was suggested that the catastrophic loss of the local current sheet equilibrium could correspond to local current disruption and dipolarization. In this paper, observations of some of the signatures predicted by theory are presented

  18. Pedagogy in Catastrophic Times: Giroux and the Tasks of Critical Public Intellectuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Doug

    2012-01-01

    This article reflects on Henry Giroux's work as a critical public intellectual and the important role his work plays in fostering educated hope and insurgent possibilities during our present times of daily and longer term catastrophes. In addition to attempting to capture the experience of what it means and how it feels to read Giroux along with…

  19. New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

  20. The Relationship between Victimization at School and Achievement: The Cusp Catastrophe Model for Reading Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sideridis, Georgios D.; Antoniou, Faye; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Morgan, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the relationship between victimization and academic achievement from a nonlinear perspective using a cusp catastrophe model. Participants were 62 students with identified learning disabilities (LD) using statewide criteria in Greece. Students participated in a 2-year cohort-sequential design. Reading assessments involved measures of…

  1. Folding catastrophes due to viscosity in multiferroic domains: implications for room-temperature multiferroic switching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, J F

    2015-12-16

    Unusual domains with curved walls and failure to satisfy the Landau-Lifshitz-Kittel Law are modeled as folding catastrophes (saddle-node bifurcations). This description of ballistic motion in a viscous medium is based upon early work by Dawber et al 2003 Appl. Phys. Lett. 82 436. It suggests that ferroelectric films can exhibit folds or vortex patterns but not both. PMID:26575273

  2. A Call to Action: Responding to Large-Scale Disasters, Catastrophes, and Traumas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, William D.

    2011-01-01

    The ascendance of large-scale disasters, catastrophes, and traumas as a concentrated focus of academic inquiry in counseling psychology is timely, and this special issue and subsequent investigations represent welcome areas of scholarship. The observations and comments herein salute the authors for responding to a post-Katrina discovery by…

  3. Spectral signatures of compact sources in the inverse Compton catastrophe limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petropoulou, M.; Piran, T.; Mastichiadis, A.

    2015-09-01

    The inverse Compton catastrophe is defined as a dramatic rise in the luminosity of inverse Compton scattered photons. It is described by a non-linear loop of radiative processes that sets in for high values of the electron compactness and is responsible for the efficient transfer of energy from electrons to photons, predominantly through inverse Compton scatterings. We search for the conditions that drive a magnetized non-thermal source to the inverse Compton catastrophe regime and study its multiwavelength (MW) photon spectrum. We develop a generic analytical framework and use numerical calculations as a backup to the analytical predictions. We find that the escaping radiation from a source in the Compton catastrophe regime bears some unique features. The MW photon spectrum is a broken power law with a break at ˜mec2 due to the onset of the Klein-Nishina suppression. The spectral index below the break energy depends on the electron and magnetic compactnesses logarithmically, while it is independent of the electron power-law index (s). The maximum radiating power emerges typically in the γ-ray regime, at energies ˜mec2 (˜γmax mec2) for s > 2 (s ≲ 2), where γmax is the maximum Lorentz factor of the injected electron distribution. We apply the principles of the inverse Compton catastrophe to blazars and γ-ray bursts using the analytical framework we developed, and show how these can be used to impose robust constraints on the source parameters.

  4. Assessment of Flood Catastrophe Risk for Grain Production at the Provincial Scale in China Based on the BMM Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Lei; ZHANG Qiao; ZHOU Ai-lian; HUO Ran

    2013-01-01

    Flood catastrophe risk assessment is imperative for the steady development of agriculture under the context of global climate change, and meanwhile, it is an urgent scientiifc issue need to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. This paper developed the methodology of lfood catastrophe risk assessment, which can be shown as the standard process of crop loss calculation, Monte Carlo simulation, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) iftting, and risk evaluation. Data on crop loss were collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard equation. Monte Carlo simulation based on appropriate distribution was used to expand sample size to overcome the insufifciency of crop loss data. Block maxima model (BMM) approach based on the extreme value theory was for modeling the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) of lfood catastrophe loss, and then lfood catastrophe risk at the provincial scale in China was calculated. The Type III Extreme distribution (Weibull) has a weighted advantage of modeling lfood catastrophe risk for grain production. The impact of lfood catastrophe to grain production in China was signiifcantly serious, and high or very high risk of lfood catastrophe mainly concentrates on the central and eastern regions of China. Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century lfood disaster, for majority of the major-producing provinces, the probability of 10% reduction of grain output is more than 90%. Especially, the probabilities of more than 15% decline in grain production reach up to 99.99, 99.86, 99.69, and 91.60% respectively in Anhui, Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang. Flood catastrophe assessment can provide multifaceted information about lfood catastrophe risk that can help to guide management of lfood catastrophe.

  5. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Edmund M; Avilés, Leticia

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are

  6. Reconstructing local population dynamics in noisy metapopulations--the role of random catastrophes and Allee effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmund M Hart

    Full Text Available Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity--demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes--affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity--positive and negative environmental fluctuations--caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp. as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our

  7. Fragment shapes in impact experiments ranging from cratering to catastrophic disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michikami, Tatsuhiro; Hagermann, Axel; Kadokawa, Tokiyuki; Yoshida, Akifumi; Shimada, Akira; Hasegawa, Sunao; Tsuchiyama, Akira

    2016-01-01

    Laboratory impact experiments have found that impact fragments tend to be elongated. Their shapes, as defined by axes a, b and c, these being the maximum dimensions of the fragment in three mutually orthogonal planes (a ⩾ b ⩾ c), are distributed around mean values of the axial ratios b/a ∼ 0.7 and c/a ∼ 0.5. This corresponds to a:b:c in the simple proportion 2:√2:1. The shape distributions of some boulders on Asteroid Eros, the small- and fast-rotating asteroids (diameter <200 m and rotation period <1 h), and asteroids in young families, are similar to those of laboratory fragments created in catastrophic disruptions. Catastrophic disruption is, however, a process that is different from impact cratering. In order to systematically investigate the shapes of fragments in the range from impact cratering to catastrophic disruption, impact experiments for basalt targets 5-15 cm in size were performed. A total of 28 impact experiments were carried out by firing a spherical nylon projectile (diameter 7.14 mm) perpendicularly into the target surface at velocities of 1.60-7.13 km/s. More than 12,700 fragments with b ⩾ 4 mm generated in the impact experiments were measured. We found that the mean value of c/a in each impact decreases with decreasing impact energy per unit target mass. For instance, the mean value of c/a in an impact cratering event is nearly 0.2, which is considerably smaller than c/a in a catastrophic disruption (∼0.5). The data presented here can provide important evidence to interpret the shapes of asteroids and boulders on asteroid surfaces, and can constrain current interpretations of asteroid formation. As an example, by applying our experimental results to the boulder shapes on Asteroid Itokawa's surface, we can infer that Itokawa's parent body must have experienced a catastrophic disruption.

  8. The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

  9. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a Flood Catastrophe Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Sampson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and re-insurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge corrected rainfall radar, meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim and a satellite rainfall product (CMORPH. Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find these loss estimates to be highly sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving observational datasets, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

  10. Poor qubits make for rich physics: noise-induced quantum Zeno effects and noise-induced Berry phases

    OpenAIRE

    Whitney, Robert S.

    2009-01-01

    We briefly review three ways that environmental noise can slow-down (or speed-up) quantum transitions; (i) Lamb shifts, (ii) over-damping and (iii) orthogonality catastrophe. We compare them with the quantum Zeno effect induced by observing the system. These effects are relevant to poor qubits (those strongly coupled to noise). We discuss Berry phases generated by the orthogonality catastrophe, and argue that noise may make it easier to observe Berry phases.

  11. Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

  12. Ophiopogonin B induces apoptosis, mitotic catastrophe and autophagy in A549 cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Meijuan; Guo, Yuanyuan; Zhao, Ruolin; Wang, Xiaoxia; Jiang, Miao; Fu, Haian; Zhang, Xu

    2016-07-01

    Ophiopogonin B (OP-B), a saponin compound isolated from Radix Ophiopogon japonicus, was verified to inhibit cell proliferation in numerous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells in our previous study. However, the precise mechanisms of action have remained unclear. In the present study, we mainly investigated the effects of OP-B on adenocarcinoma A549 cells to further elaborate the underlying mechanisms of OP-B in different NSCLC cell lines. Detection by high content screening (HCS) and TUNEL assay verified that OP-B induced apoptosis in this cell line, while detection of Caspase-3, Bcl-2 and Bax showed that OP-B induced cell death was caspase and mitochondrial independent. Further experiments showed that OP-B induced cell cycle arrest in the S and G2/M phases by inhibiting the expression of Myt1 and phosphorylation of Histone H3 (Ser10), which resulted in mitotic catastrophe in the cells. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observation of cell micro-morphology combined with detection of Atgs by western blot analysis showed that OP-B induced autophagy in this cell line. Autophagy inhibition by the lysosome inhibitor CQ or Beclin1-siRNA knockdown both attenuated cell viability, demonstrated that autophagy also being the vital reason resulted in cell death. More importantly, the xenograft model using A549 cells provided further evidence of the inhibition of OP-B on tumor proliferation. Immunohistochemistry detection of LC3 and Tunel assay both verified that high dose of OP-B (75 mg/kg) induced autophagy and apoptosis in vivo, and western blot detection of p-Histone H3 (Ser10), Survivin and XIAP further indicated the molecular mechanism of OP-B in vivo. As our findings revealed, multiple types of cell death overlapped in OP-B treated A549 cells, it displayed multitarget characteristics of the compounds extracted from the Chinese herbal, which may be used as candidate anticancer medicine in clinic. PMID:27175570

  13. Catastrophic loss of stratospheric ozone in dense volcanic clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prather, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Rapid, localized loss of ozone is predicted to occur in the midlatitude and tropical stratosphere in the presence of very large concentrations of sulfate aerosols. Volcanic eruptions can increase the effective surface area of sulfuric acid so that heterogeneous reactions involving ClONO2, and secondarily N2O5, are able to suppress NO(x) abundances by more than a factor of 10 relative to gas phase chemistry. When NO(x) levels fall below a threshold, e.g., 0.6 ppb at 24 km in mid-latitudes, the chlorine-catalyzed loss of O3 proceeds at rates comparable to those during the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, more than 50 ppb per day. If such losses occurred following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the most volcanically perturbed regions over the tropics and mid-latitudes, this model predicts that they are driven primarily by the suppression of NO(x) below these critical levels. The increase in stratospheric chlorine since El Chichon has made Mount Pinatubo more than twice as effective in causing rapid O3 loss.

  14. The impact of mega-catastrophes on insurers: an exposure-based analysis of the U.S. homeowners' insurance market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Insurance is a key risk-sharing mechanism that protects citizens and governments from the losses caused by natural catastrophes. Given the increase in the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes over recent years, this article analyzes the performance effects of mega-catastrophes for U.S. insurance firms using a measure of market expectations. Specifically, we analyze the share price losses of insurance firms in response to catastrophe events to ascertain whether mega-catastrophes significantly damage the performance of insurers and whether different types of mega-catastrophes have different impacts. The main message from our analysis is that the impact of mega-catastrophes on insurers has not been too damaging. While the exact impact of catastrophes depends on the nature of the event and the degree of competition within the relevant insurance market (less competition allows insurers to recoup catastrophe losses through adjustments to premiums), our overall results suggest that U.S. insurance firms can adequately manage the risks and costs of mega-catastrophes. From a public policy perspective, our results show that insurance provides a robust means of sharing catastrophe losses to help reduce the financial consequences of a catastrophe event. PMID:25041510

  15. A Comparison of Three Catastrophic On-Orbit Collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stansbery, Gene; Matney, Mark; Liou, J. C.; Whitlock, Dave

    2007-01-01

    Orbital debris environment models, such as NASA's LEGEND model, show that accidental collisions between satellites will begin to be the dominant cause for future debris population growth within the foreseeable future. The collisional breakup models employed are obviously a critical component of the environment models. The Chinese Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test which destroyed the Fengyun-1C weather satellite provided a rare, but not unique, chance to compare the breakup models against an actual on-orbit collision. Measurements from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), for debris larger than 10-cm, and from Haystack, for debris larger than 1-cm, show that the number of fragments created from Fengyun significantly exceeds model predictions using the NASA Standard Collisional Breakup Model. However, it may not be appropriate to alter the model to match this one, individual case. Two other on-orbit collisions have occurred in the past which have produced significant numbers of debris fragments. In September 1985, the U.S. conducted an ASAT test against the Solwind P-78 spacecraft at an altitude of approximately 525 km. A year later, in September 1986, the Delta 180 payload was struck by its Delta II rocket body in a planned collision at 220 km altitude. Although no Haystack data is available in 1985-6 and very few debris pieces were cataloged from Delta 180 due to its low altitude, measurements were collected in dedicated tests by phased array radars in the SSN in the days after each test. This paper will examine the available radar data from each test and compare and contrast the results with model predictions and with the results from the more recent Fengyun ASAT test.

  16. Catastrophic Health Care Expenditure among Older People with Chronic Diseases in 15 European Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenijevic, Jelena; Pavlova, Milena; Rechel, Bernd; Groot, Wim

    2016-01-01

    Introduction It is well-known that the prevalence of chronic diseases is high among older people, especially those who are poor. Moreover, chronic diseases can result in catastrophic health expenditure. The relationship between chronic diseases and their financial burden on households is thus double-sided, as financial difficulties can give rise to, and result from, chronic diseases. Our aim was to examine the levels of catastrophic health expenditure imposed by private out-of-pocket payments among older people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases and cancer in 15 European countries. Methods The SHARE dataset for individuals aged 50+ and their households, collected in 2010–2012 was used. The total number of participants included in this study was N = 51,661. The sample consisted of 43.8% male and 56.2% female participants. The average age was 67 years. We applied an instrumental variable approach for binary instrumented variables known as a treatment-effect model. Results We found that being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases was associated with catastrophic health expenditure among older people even in comparatively wealthy countries with developed risk-pooling mechanisms. When compared to the Netherlands (the country with the lowest share of out-of-pocket payments as a percentage of total health expenditure in our study), older people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus in Portugal, Poland, Denmark, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, the Czech Republic and Hungary were more likely to experience catastrophic health expenditure. Similar results were observed for diagnosed cardiovascular diseases. In contrast, cancer was not associated with catastrophic health expenditure. Discussion Our study shows that older people with diagnosed chronic diseases face catastrophic health expenditure even in some of the wealthiest countries in Europe. The effect differs across chronic diseases and countries. This may be due to different socio

  17. Catastrophic disruption of asteriods and satellites; Proceedings of the International Workshop, Pisa, Italy, July 30-August 2, 1985

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, D. R. (Editor); Farinella, P. (Editor); Paolicchi, P. (Editor); Zappala, V. (Editor)

    1986-01-01

    Theoretical, numerical, and experimental investigations of the violent disruption of asteroids or planetary satellites are discussed in reviews and reports. Topics examined include acceleration techniques and results of experiments simulating catastrophic fragmentation events; laboratory simulations of catastrophic impact; scaling laws for the catastrophic collisions of asteroids; asteroid collisional history, the origin of the Hirayama families, and disruption of small satellites; and the implications of the inferred compositions of a steroids for their collisional evolution. Diagrams, graphs, tables, and a summary of the discussion at the workshop are provided.

  18. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

  19. Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth Hewitt; Manjari Mehta

    2012-01-01

    Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

  20. The shapes of fragments in hypervelocity impact experiments ranging from cratering to catastrophic disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michikami, T.; Hagermann, A.; Kadokawa, T.; Yoshida, A.; Shimada, A.; Hasegawa, S.; Tsuchiyama, A.

    2015-12-01

    Laboratory impact experiments have found that the shapes of impact fragments as defined by axes a, b and c, these being the maximum dimensions of the fragment in three mutually orthogonal planes (a ≥ b ≥ c) are distributed around mean values of the axial ratios b/a ~0.7 and c/a ~0.5, i.e., corresponding to a : b: c in the simple proportion 2: √2: 1. The shape distributions of some boulders on asteroid Eros, the small- and fast-rotating asteroids (diameter 8 m) on asteroid Itokawa. The mean value of c/a of these boulders is 0.46, which is similar to the value for catastrophic disruption. This implies that the parent body of Itokawa could have experienced a catastrophic disruption.

  1. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing

  2. INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL INNOVATION AND EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKETS. THE CASE OF CATASTROPHE BONDS AND LISTED REINSURANCE COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CONSTANTIN LAURA-GABRIELA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Focusing on the financial innovation – stock market interconnections, the present research studies the association between the insurance-linked market activity of European (reinsurance companies and their evolution on the capital markets. With the aim of emphasizing the connections from the perspective of the stock performance and their risk, the empirical analysis is based on vector autoregression (VAR and Granger causality analyses. The proposed examination is further developed by considering both impulse response functions and variance decomposition insights. The proxies of the catastrophe bond market, as financial innovation, there are employed both the size and the number of catastrophe bonds transactions, while the stock returns and their standard deviation stand for representatives of the evolution of the reinsurance companies on the capital markets in terms of financial performance and risk. The main results confirm other studies, suggesting that the effects of issuing cat bonds on the ceding companies is reflected rather in terms of stocks’ risk diminishing.

  3. Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai;

    2013-01-01

    , better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance to...... investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits.......Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics...

  4. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure during economic recession in the field of cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanourgiakis, John; Kanoupakis, Emmanuel

    2014-02-01

    Economic crisis drives many governments into drastic spending cuts in order to minimize their healthcare costs, resulting in an increase of out-of-pocket payment. This causes mainly the most vulnerable social groups, not only in poor countries, to lose their access to quality care and their ability to pay, and leads them in to catastrophic healthcare expenditures. Questions about whether health spending can be catastrophic rise across nations where there is an income reduction, unemployment and serious or chronic illness. Cardiovascular disease is the number one cause of death today. The first cost-of-illness study, which estimated the costs of cardiovascular disease in the EU in 2003, found them to be €169 billion a year, while the most recent, in 2009, estimated them at nearly €196 billion a year. Financial protection measures must be taken by governments in order to protect their citizens, particularly the most vulnerable ones. PMID:24308449

  5. Catastrophic cervical spine injuries in the collision sport athlete, part 2: principles of emergency care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Rahul; Palumbo, Mark A; Fadale, Paul D

    2004-01-01

    Catastrophic cervical spine injuries can lead to devastating consequences for the collision athlete. Improved understanding of these injuries can lead to identification of risk factors, early diagnosis, and effective on-field management. This article is the second in a 2-part series. The first part, published in the June 2004 issue, reviewed the current concepts regarding the epidemiology, functional anatomy, and diagnostic considerations relevant to cervical spine trauma in collision sports. In this article, the principles of on-field emergency care of the spine-injured athlete are reviewed. The authors discuss the need for effective pre-event planning, on-field evaluation and management of cervical spine injuries, and the transition of care from the playing field to the emergency room. The protocol for equipment removal, when necessary, is also reviewed. An organized, rapid approach to the management of cervical spine-injured collision athletes can help to optimize the outcomes of these catastrophic injuries. PMID:15494346

  6. A CUSP CATASTROPHE MODEL FOR DEVELOPING MARKETING STRATEGIES FOR ONLINE ART AUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Xiang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Online auction is one of the successful business models in electronic commerce. In recent years, online auction has once again become an important part in many people’s lives, setting new records in transaction amounts and bringing huge profits to the owners of auction websites. Customer satisfaction has become an important issue for online auction. The main purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between e-service quality and satisfaction by using a catastrophe model. The latent variables and manifest variables are defined in the Structural Equation Model (SEM. The catastrophe model was used to developing marketing. The empirical results demonstrated that design is the key factors to impact on consumers to choose the online art auction web site.

  7. Catastrophic model for stability analysis of high pile-column bridge pier

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    According to the engineering features of higher pile-column bridge pier in mountainous area, a clamped beam mechanical model was set up by synthetically analyzing the higher pile-column bridge pier buckling mechanism. Based on the catastrophe theory, the cusp catastrophe model of higher pile-column bridge pier was established by the determination of its potential function and bifurcation set equation, the necessary instability conditions of high pile-column bridge pier were deduced, and the determination method for column-buckling and lateral displacement of high pile-column bridge pier was derived. The comparison between the experimental and calculated results show that the calculated curves agree with testing curves and the method is reasonable and effective.

  8. Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. PMID:26676354

  9. Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

  10. Orthogonality catastrophe as a consequence of qubit embedding in an ultracold Fermi gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We investigate the behavior of a two-level atom coupled to a one-dimensional, ultracold Fermi gas. The sudden switching on of the scattering between the two entities leads to the loss of any coherence in the initial state of the impurity and we show that the exact dynamics of this process is strongly influenced by the effect of the orthogonality catastrophe within the gas. We highlight the relationship between the Loschmidt echo and the retarded Green's function - typically used to formulate the dynamical theory of the catastrophe - and demonstrate that the effect is reflected in the impurity dynamics. We show that the expected nonexponential decay of the spectral function can be observed using Ramsey interferometry on the two-level atom and comment on finite temperature effects.

  11. Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vipul; Dixit, Narendra M.

    2015-10-01

    Increasing the mutation rate, μ , of viruses above a threshold, {μ }c, has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution. We find a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: τ ≈ 0.6/≤ft(μ -{μ }c\\right). The law is robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens. We estimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.

  12. Assessing the utility of work team theory in a unified command environment at catastrophic incidents

    OpenAIRE

    Templeton, Douglas R.

    2005-01-01

    CHDS State/Local Since 9/11 much progress has been made by Federal, State and local authorities to prepare for future Catastrophic Incidents. The March 1, 2004 release of the National Incident Management System (NIMS) mandated the use of Unified Command and Incident Management Teams (IMTs) for multi-agency, multi-jurisdictional incidents. These teams have strong potential for improving complex incident management. However, the potential for interagency conflict threatens effectual IMT func...

  13. Risque extensif et risque quotidien dans le Chaco bolivien : sources de crise et catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian R. Reyes Pando

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Les risques de catastrophe suivent un continuum qui va des risques structurels initiaux (de pré-impact aux risques futurs ou directement liés aux pratiques de reconstruction et à une récupération1 inadéquate, en passant par les risques contingents (résultant directement de l’impact. Ces différentes catégories sont souvent construites à partir de risques chroniques déjà existants. Elles sont utilisées pour démontrer l’évolution cyclique des catastrophes de 2009 et 2011, associées à la sécheresse et au gel, ayant affectés le Chaco bolivien. Par ailleurs, cet article vise à montrer en quoi une analyse des facteurs de causalité et des impacts post-catastrophe déjà connus est nécessaire. Ces notions sont souvent associées aux aléas à grande échelle pouvant survenir brutalement, mais elles occultent la compréhension des besoins lors de crises qui surviennent à causes d’aléas diffus, extensifs, liés aux styles de vie. Il s’agit également de révéler en quoi les tentatives d’appréhender les catégories successives de risques, apparemment séquencées, en utilisant des mécanismes et des cadres institutionnels indépendants, sont vouées à l’échec. De fait, des relations existent entre risques principaux, risques contingents et risques futurs, et la gestion des risques de catastrophe ainsi que les mécanismes de développement nécessaires pour les réduire.

  14. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  15. OPTIMAL INSURANCE FOR CATASTROPHIC RISK: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO NUCLEAR CORPORATE LIABILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Louaas, Alexis; Picard, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the optimal insurance coverage for high severity-low probability accidents, both from theoretical and applied standpoints. Such accidents qualify as catastrophic when their risk premium is a non-negligible proportion of the victims’ wealth, although the probability of occurrence is very small. We show that this may be the case when the individual’s absolute risk aversion is very large in the accident case. We characterize the optimal insurance contract firstly for an individual, an...

  16. Chaos and catastrophe near the plasma frequency in the rf-biased Josephson junction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    At bias frequencies much higher than the plasma frequency, the zero-voltage state of the rf-biased Josephson junction is known to span a range of dc bias proportional to the zero-order Bessel function of the rf amplitude. This pattern is modified at frequencies near the plasma frequency by the onset of chaotic instabilities and by the presence of cusp catastrophes

  17. Folding catastrophes due to viscosity in multiferroic domains: implications for room-temperature multiferroic switching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unusual domains with curved walls and failure to satisfy the Landau–Lifshitz-Kittel Law are modeled as folding catastrophes (saddle-node bifurcations). This description of ballistic motion in a viscous medium is based upon early work by Dawber et al 2003 Appl. Phys. Lett. 82 436. It suggests that ferroelectric films can exhibit folds or vortex patterns but not both. (fast track communication)

  18. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    OpenAIRE

    Krasilnikov, E. Yu.

    2002-01-01

    Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the tropospher...

  19. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973. ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.653, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  20. Infrared catastrophe and tunneling into strongly correlated electron systems: Perturbative x-ray edge limit

    OpenAIRE

    Patton, Kelly R.; Geller, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    The tunneling density of states exhibits anomalies (cusps, algebraic suppressions, and pseudogaps) at the Fermi energy in a wide variety of low-dimensional and strongly correlated electron systems. We argue that in many cases these spectral anomalies are caused by an infrared catastrophe in the screening response to the sudden introduction of a new electron into the system during a tunneling event. A nonperturbative functional-integral method is introduced to account for this effect, making u...

  1. Infrared catastrophe and tunneling into strongly correlated electron systems: Beyond the x-ray edge limit

    OpenAIRE

    Patton, Kelly R.; Geller, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a nonperturbative method to calculate the electron propagator in low-dimensional and strongly correlated electron systems. The method builds on our earlier work using a Hubbard-Stratonovich transformation to map the tunneling problem to the x-ray edge problem, which accounts for the infrared catastrophe caused by the sudden introduction of a new electron into a conductor during a tunneling event. Here we use a cumulant expansion to include fluctuations about this x-ray edge limit. ...

  2. Catastrophe risk sharing and public-private partnerships : From natural disasters to terrorism

    OpenAIRE

    De Marcelis-Warin, Nathalie; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

    2003-01-01

    Recent extreme events showed how insurers, deprived of reinsurance capacity at an affordable price, could decide to stop covering for specific extreme events and rapidly let people and firms uncovered. Developing public-private partnerships could constitute one of the most appealing ways to solve the problem of financing the consequences of those extremes events by taking advantage of strengths of both sectors. Catastrophic risks present, however, very specific characteristics which really ch...

  3. Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsü, Kenneth J.

    1980-05-01

    Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

  4. CATASTROPHIC ABDOMINAL INJURY WITH EVISCERATION OF JEJUNUM AND ILEUM IN A DRAUGHT DONKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Hussain, M. Athar, A. Yousaf, G. Muhammad and M. Saqib

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The present report describes a catastrophic penetrating abdominal injury associated with a roadside accident in a draught donkey. Though repair of the eviscerated, damaged portion of the small intestine was accomplished successfully, the animal could not be saved. After postmortem it was concluded that hypovolemia and respiratory distress resulted in the death of the wounded donkey before any resuscitating attempt could be made.

  5. The earthquake and tsunami - observations by Japanese physicians since the 11 March catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Nagamatsu, Soichiro; Maekawa, Tsuyoshi; Ujike,Yoshihito; Hashimoto, Satoru; FUKE,Nobuo

    2011-01-01

    Japan was struck by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and a tsunami on 11 March 2011. Although this catastrophe has caused the most devastating damage to Japan since World War II, we believe that our systematic preparation for disasters somewhat alleviated the damage. Learning lessons from the magnitude 7.3 Great Hanshin earthquake in 1995, the government organized approximately 700 medical teams specialized in disaster management. In this earthquake of 2011, hundreds of medical teams were successfu...

  6. Catastrophizing and anxiety sensitivity mediate the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janke, E Amy; Jones, Elizabeth; Hopkins, Christina M; Ruggieri, Madelyn; Hruska, Alesha

    2016-08-01

    Stress-induced or "emotional eating" contributes to increased caloric intake and weight gain, yet models examining psychosocial factors that promote and sustain this behavior are incomplete. There is a need to identify explicit, clinically-relevant mechanisms of emotional eating behavior. Pain is a common stressor associated with increased weight and, potentially, altered eating behaviors. The present study applies the Fear Avoidance Model (FAM) of pain to examine processes that may explain the relationship between pain and increased weight while also providing the opportunity to examine specific mechanisms that may encourage eating during a variety of stressors. Our aim is to better understand the impact of pain on eating behavior and the potential for the FAM to improve our understanding of the psychological mechanisms that promote eating during times of duress. A survey of 312 adults explored the link between pain experience and stress-induced eating, further examining the mediating effects of the psychological aspects of the FAM (e.g., anxiety sensitivity, catastrophizing, and pain-related fear). 24% of respondents reported persistent pain, and had significantly higher BMIs than their pain-free peers. All three FAM components were positively correlated with measures of emotional, external, and restrained eating. Anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing significantly mediated the relationship between persistent pain and emotional eating behavior, while anxiety sensitivity alone mediated the relationship between persistent pain and external eating. Findings suggest pain may be associated with increased likelihood for emotional eating and that characteristics from FAM, in particular anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing, may mediate the relationship between the presence of persistent pain and emotional eating behavior. Evidence-based treatments targeting anxiety sensitivity and catastrophizing could be useful to address emotional eating in individuals struggling

  7. How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses

    OpenAIRE

    Kron, W.; Steuer, M.; Löw, P.; Wirtz, A

    2012-01-01

    Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of hum...

  8. Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster

    OpenAIRE

    Plyer, Allison; Bonaguro, Joy; Hodges, Ken

    2009-01-01

    After a large scale evacuation, authorities need to know the new and frequently changing population distributions in order to meet needs for housing, schools, health care, and other services. This paper reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets that can form the basis of sound, relevant, and timely county-level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event. The most appropriate data to estimate population i...

  9. Study on Evaluation Models of Highway Safety Based on Catastrophe Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Hezheng Bi; Linjun Lu; Jian Lu; Chen Wang

    2014-01-01

    Evaluating safety performance of first-class highways in China is important due to their high mortality rates. Traditional models for statistical crash prediction and traffic conflict techniques require long periods of data collection which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper introduces a safety evaluation method based on catastrophe theory for highways in China. The method firstly divides the highway into multiple road sections and uses video-based road detection (VRD) system t...

  10. Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesperance, Ann M.

    2008-06-30

    On March 19, 2008, policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and Public Health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Catastrophic Incident Recovery: Long-Term Recovery from an Anthrax Event. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about restoration and recovery through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems.

  11. Equalization Reserves for Natural Catastrophes and Shareholder Value: a Simulation Study

    OpenAIRE

    Dacorogna M.; Albrecher H.; Moller M.; Sahiti S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects on the company value for shareholders of keeping equalization reserves for catastrophic risk in an insurance company. We perform an extensive simulation study to compare the performance of the company with and without equalization reserves for several standard profitability measures. Equalization reserves turn out to be beneficial for shareholders in terms of the resulting expected Sharpe ratio and also with respect to the value of the call option on assets...

  12. Governing Ignorance: Emerging Catastrophic Risks—Industry Responses and Policy Frictions

    OpenAIRE

    Giuliano Castellano

    2010-01-01

    The growing interconnections between people, markets and networks together with the development of new technologies have increased the frequency and impact of large-scale disasters around the globe. Many of these events, defined as emerging catastrophic (or systemic) risks, have no previous record. At the same time there is a strong probability that their frequency and impact will increase in the future. This paper takes a governance perspective by assuming that policy actions should be desig...

  13. 'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

  14. Using participating and financial contracts to insure catastrophe risk: Implications for crop risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Enjolras, Geoffroy; Kast, Robert

    2008-01-01

    High losses generated by natural catastrophes reduce the availability of insurance. Among the ways to manage risk, the subscriptions of participating and non-participating contracts respectively permit to implement the two major principles in risk allocation: the mutuality and the transfer principles. Decomposing a global risk into its idiosyncratic and systemic components, we show that: the participating contract hedges the individual losses under a variable premium and the systemic risk is ...

  15. Using participating and financial contracts to insure catastrophe risk: implications for crop risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Enjolras, Geoffroy; Kast, Robert; European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists

    2007-01-01

    High losses generated by natural catastrophes reduce the availability of insurance. Among the ways to manage risk, the subscriptions of participating and non-participating contracts respectively permit to implement the two major principles in risk allocation: the mutuality and the transfer principles. Decomposing a global risk into its idiosyncratic and systemic components, we show that: the participating contract hedges the individual losses under a variable premium and the systemic risk is ...

  16. Generation of a family of Pearcey beams based on Fresnel diffraction catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the theory of differential geometry and Fresnel diffraction catastrophes, we theoretically prove that the cusped caustic of Pearcey beams are the evolute of a parabola and thus identify the key factor determining the optical structure of Pearcey beams. We numerically simulate and experimentally generate a family of Pearcey beams with various optical topological structures using different parabolas. We then investigate their optical structures and propagation properties. (paper)

  17. Development of a Catastrophe Model for Managing the Risks of Urban Flash Flooding in Vienna

    OpenAIRE

    K.L. Compton; Faber, R.; Ermolieva, T.; J. Linnerooth-Bayer; Nachtnebel, H.-P.

    2008-01-01

    This report provides a case study examining flood risks in the city of Vienna. The purpose is to illustrate an interdisciplinary approach to flood risk analysis, combining hydrological flood risk assessment and simulation modeling with the finances of flood risk management. Three scenarios were preliminarily identified for analysis: catastrophic flooding on a major European river (the Danube) that flows through Vienna; storm flooding due to failure of storm drainage systems; and flash ...

  18. Genetic consequences of radionuclide contamination 9 years later the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genetic consequences of radionuclide contamination in the zone of estrangement within 9 years of the Chernobyl catastrophe are studied. By the example of winter wheat, the essential increase is revealed in a natural level of chromosomal mutations and visible morphological attributes (by 2.49-6.39 and 2.6-13 times, respectively). This indicates that the retained high level of radionuclide contamination continues to be an effective mutagen factor of the environment and is a genetic threat for living organisms

  19. Nuclear power station with nuclear reactor accommodated largely secure against catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If the nuclear reactor is installed underground near the power station unit, then danger to the environment due to radiation contamination can be largely or nearly completely prevented by a covering of constant thickness or by a covering which can be installed by a catastrophic accident. The extinguishing of a burning reactor is also relatively simple for a reactor accommodated in a pit. The above-mentioned measures can be used individually or combined. (orig./HP)

  20. Stories from Around the Globe: Financing Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Selected Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Dela Cruz, Anna Mae D.; Nuevo, Christian Edward L.; Haw, Nel Jason L.; Tang, Vincent Anthony S.

    2014-01-01

    This study reviews literature on financing catastrophic health expenditures in selected countries to describe and synthesize the strategies of relatively successful health financing schemes. It begins with a review of basic concepts and definitions to set the stage for later discussions. This is followed by a country selection process, where countries were selected based on their income level, health outcomes, coverage outcomes, cost effectiveness, and the availability of information on their...

  1. Incorporating Family Function into Chronic Pain Disability: The Role of Catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Akbari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Observers’ responses to pain are recently investigated to more comprehensively explain chronic pain (CP and disability. However, the role of family context, defined as interference in roles, communication, and problem-solving, and how (i.e., through which mechanisms these variables contribute to CP related disability have yet to be examined. Objectives. The aim of the present study is to examine family context in relationship to pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and depression and its role in understanding CP disability. Three different models were examined. Methods. A total sample of 142 patients with musculoskeletal chronic pain was recruited to examine the role of fear of movement, pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and depression in relationship to family functioning as predictors of disability. Results. Findings indicated that two models showed acceptable fit, but one of them revealed superior fit indices. Results of the model with superior fit indices indicated that family dysfunction may contribute to catastrophic thinking, which, in turn, contributes to patients’ disability through increasing fear of movement and depression. Discussion. The current study provides further support for the notion that the impact of emotional and cognitive variables upon CP-related disability can be better understood when we consider the social context of pain patients and family function in particular.

  2. Catastrophe of coronal magnetic flux ropes in fully open magnetic field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI; Guoqiang(李国强); HU; Youqiu(胡友秋)

    2002-01-01

    The catastrophe of coronal magnetic flux ropes is closely related to solar explosive phenomena, such as prominence eruptions, coronal mass ejections, and two-ribbon solar flares. Using a 2-dimensional, 3-component ideal MHD model in Cartesian coordinates, numerical simulations are carried out to investigate the equilibrium property of a coronal magnetic flux rope which is embedded in a fully open background magnetic field. The flux rope emerges from the photosphere and enters the corona with its axial and annular magnetic fluxes controlled by a single "emergence parameter". For a flux rope that has entered the corona, we may change its axial and annular fluxes artificially and let the whole system reach a new equilibrium through numerical simulations. The results obtained show that when the emergence parameter, the axial flux, or the annular flux is smaller than a certain critical value, the flux rope is in equilibrium and adheres to the photosphere. On the other hand, if the critical value is exceeded, the flux rope loses equilibrium and erupts freely upward, namely, a catastrophe takes place. In contrast with the partly-opened background field, the catastrophic amplitude is infinite for the case of fully-opened background field.

  3. 论灾难的德育价值%The Ethical Value of Catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程德慧

    2009-01-01

    the developing history of human kind has in fact been the course of buffeting with all sorts of misfortunes. The formation, development of natural disasters and social catastrophes need to be further ex-plored, so the sagacious people could have a greater ability to overcome natural disasters and minimize the damage. The article applies the ethical approaches to analyze the formation and presentation of social catastrophes, and the causes of civic awareness and responsibilities when facing these misfortunes, with the hope that these catastrophes could be an important resources of citizenship education and bring beneficial inspiration for the sound development of civil society.%人类文明的发展历程就是与各种灾难斗争的历程,加强对灾难及社会危机事件的研究,可以使人类认识灾难的发生、发展的规律,增强人类征服自然、改造自然的能力.同时,将会对我国公民社会健康发展带来很多有益的启示.

  4. The surface of Mars: An unusual laboratory that preserves a record of catastrophic and unusual events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, M.G.

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophic and unusual events on Earth such as bolide impacts, megafloods, supereruptions, flood volcanism, and subice volcanism may have devastating effects when they occur. Although these processes have unique characteristics and form distinctive features and deposits, we have diffi culties identifying them and measuring the magnitude of their effects. Our diffi culties with interpreting these processes and identifying their consequences are understandable considering their infrequency on Earth, combined with the low preservation potential of their deposits in the terrestrial rock record. Although we know these events do happen, they are infrequent enough that the deposits are poorly preserved on the geologically active face of the Earth, where erosion, volcanism, and tectonism constantly change the surface. Unlike the Earth, on Mars catastrophic and unusual features are well preserved because of the slow modifi cation of the surface. Signifi cant precipitation has not occurred on Mars for billions of years and there appears to be no discrete crustal plates to have undergone subduction and destruction. Therefore the ancient surface of Mars preserves geologic features and deposits that result from these extraordinary events. Also, unlike the other planets, Mars is the most similar to our own, having an atmosphere, surface ice, volcanism, and evidence of onceflowing water. So although our understanding of precursors, processes, and possible biological effects of catastrophic and unusual processes is limited on Earth, some of these mysteries may be better understood through investigating the surface of Mars. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  5. Observational Features of Large-Scale Structures as Revealed by the Catastrophe Model of Solar Eruptions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale magnetic structures are the main carrier of major eruptions in the solar atmosphere. These structures are rooted in the photosphere and are driven by the unceasing motion of the photospheric material through a series of equilibrium configurations. The motion brings energy into the coronal magnetic field until the system ceases to be in equilibrium. The catastrophe theory for solar eruptions indicates that loss of mechanical equilibrium constitutes the main trigger mechanism of major eruptions, usually shown up as solar flares,eruptive prominences, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Magnetic reconnection which takes place at the very beginning of the eruption as a result of plasma instabilities/turbulence inside the current sheet, converts magnetic energy into heating and kinetic energy that are responsible for solar flares, and for accelerating both plasma ejecta (flows and CMEs) and energetic particles. Various manifestations are thus related to one another, and the physics behind these relationships is catastrophe and magnetic reconnection. This work reports on recent progress in both theoretical research and observations on eruptive phenomena showing the above manifestations. We start by displaying the properties of large-scale structures in the corona and the related magnetic fields prior to an eruption, and show various morphological features of the disrupting magnetic fields. Then, in the framework of the catastrophe theory,we look into the physics behind those features investigated in a succession of previous works,and discuss the approaches they used.

  6. Catastrophic Health Expenditures for Households with Disabled Members: Evidence from the Korean Health Panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong-Eun; Shin, Hyung-Ik; Do, Young Kyung; Yang, Eun Joo

    2016-03-01

    Persons with disabilities use more health care services due to ill health and face higher health care expenses and burden. This study explored the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures of households with persons with disabilities compared to that of those without such persons. We used the Korean Health Panel (KHP) dataset for the years 2010 and 2011. The final sample was 5,610 households; 800 (14.3%) of these were households with a person with a disability and 4,810 (85.7%) were households without such a person. Households with a person with a disability faced higher catastrophic health expenditures, spending about 1.2 to 1.4 times more of their annual living expenditures for out-of-pocket medical expenses, compared to households without persons with disabilities. Households having low economic status and members with chronic disease were more likely to face catastrophic health expenditures, while those receiving public assistance were less likely. Exemption or reduction of out-of-pocket payments in the National Health Insurance and additional financial support are needed so that the people with disabilities can use medical services without suffering financial crisis. PMID:26955233

  7. Effects of Catastrophic Insect Outbreaks on the Harvesting Solutions of Dahurian Larch Plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Optimal harvesting under pest outbreak risk was studied on a set of even-aged Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii stands in northeastern Inner Mongolia, China. The effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks caused by the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus on the economic harvesting plan are compared through both deterministic and stochastic cases. Stand simulation is based on an individual-tree growth system. A scenario approach is applied when simulating the effects of catastrophic pest outbreaks. Insect damage is assumed to be a Poisson process with an average rate of 0.1 per year. One hundred scenarios of insect damage are created using the Poisson process to simulate the distribution of bare land value of each of the optimal regimes. Numerical results show that the optimal rotation is shortened with an increasing probability of a catastrophe. The average bare land values in the stochastic case are approximately 14.8% to 22.9% lower. Numbers of thinnings are decreased for most plots when seeking a highest bare land value, compared to the deterministic optima. If given a constant thinning rate, increasing risk-taking shortens the optimum rotation, as the model set used.

  8. Spectral signatures of compact sources in the inverse Compton catastrophe limit

    CERN Document Server

    Petropoulou, Maria; Mastichiadis, Apostolos

    2015-01-01

    The inverse Compton catastrophe is defined as a dramatic rise in the luminosity of inverse Compton scattered photons. It is described by a non-linear loop of radiative processes that sets in for high values of the electron compactness and is responsible for the efficient transfer of energy from electrons to photons, predominantly through inverse Compton scatterings. We search for the conditions that drive a magnetized non-thermal source to the inverse Compton catastrophe regime and study its multi-wavelength (MW) photon spectrum. We develop a generic analytical framework and use numerical calculations as a backup to the analytical predictions. We find that the escaping radiation from a source in the Compton catastrophe regime bears some unique features. The MW photon spectrum is a broken power law with a break at $\\sim m_e c^2$ due to the onset of the Klein-Nishina suppression. The spectral index below the break energy depends on the electron and magnetic compactnesses logarithmically, while it is independent...

  9. GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Zolotarev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

  10. Analysis of Environmental Contamination resulting from Catastrophic Incidents: Part two: Building Laboratory Capability by Selecting and Developing Analytical Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples with analytically diverse types including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface resid...

  11. Virtual reality exposure therapy as treatment for pain catastrophizing in fibromyalgia patients: proof-of-concept study (Study Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spottiswoode Bruce

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Albeit exercise is currently advocated as one of the most effective management strategies for fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS; the implementation of exercise as a FMS treatment in reality is significantly hampered by patients' poor compliance. The inference that pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance in FMS patients, justifies considering the alteration of pain catastrophizing in improving compliance towards exercises in FMS patients. The aim of this study is to provide proof-of-concept for the development and testing of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy (VRET program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS patients. Methods Two interlinked experimental studies will be conducted. Study 1 aims to objectively ascertain if neurophysiological changes occur in the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing, when catastrophizing FMS subjects are exposed to visuals of exercise activities. Study 2 aims to ascertain the preliminary efficacy and feasibility of exposure to visuals of exercise activities as a treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in FMS subjects. Twenty subjects will be selected from a group of FMS patients attending the Tygerberg Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa and randomly allocated to either the VRET (intervention group or waiting list (control group. Baseline neurophysiological activity for subjects will be collected in study 1 using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI. In study 2, clinical improvement in pain catastrophizing will be measured using fMRI (objective and the pain catastrophizing scale (subjective. Discussion The premise is if exposing FMS patients to visuals of various exercise activities trigger the functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophizing; then as a treatment, repeated exposure to visuals of the exercise activities using a VRET program could possibly decrease exercise-related pain catastrophizing

  12. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  13. Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

  14. Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

  15. Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

  16. Catastrophic disruption in the solar system - Asteroid collisional history, origin of Hirayama families and disruption of small satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, D. R.

    1986-01-01

    The process of collisional catastrophic disruption has played a significantly role in structuring the solar system. Diverse populations of bodies such as the asteroid belt, small satellites of Jupiter and Saturn and perhaps even the rings of Saturn have been created or substantially changed by catastrophic distruption. Understanding the outcome of large scale impacts is essential to learning about the early history of the solar system in the asteroid zone and the reason why a planet failed to form there.

  17. Characteristics of deep-seated catastrophic landslide in a valley, movement process, and determination of deposition hazard area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Chia-Ming; Weng, Meng-Chia

    2013-04-01

    During extreme rainfall, deep-seated catastrophic landslide is a frequent mishap in main stream and tributaries of Taiwan. Reviewing the histories of Taiwan landslide events, as a large and deep-seated rock/soil mass of simultaneous movements in a valley, it might cause serious disasters. Reviewing the present literatures, there are morphological indications that the potential deep-seated catastrophic landslide can be track and find. Especially, the slate slope is influenced by weathering and gravitation for a long time, it become weak and it may cause the sliding slope creep and folding rock that will become the sliding surface of deep-seated catastrophic landslide. But analysis deep-seated catastrophic landslides for disaster preparedness and response planning are sometimes inadequate due to the complexity of such slopes. Whereas, this study mainly focus on deep-seated catastrophic landslide in valley. The study area has chosen Xiandushan Mountain, the 115.9 k of Suhua highway, and Zhuoshui River which to discuss the characteristics of deep-seated catastrophic landslide in a valley, movement process, and deposition hazard area. Base on the past events of deep-seated catastrophic landslide, the geological investigation, morphological analysis, and remote sensing technology will helpful to induce the geological characteristics and the morphological evolution. Besides, the deep-seated catastrophic landslide events will simplify to set up the physical modeling, its interpret the variation conditions to influence the characteristics, movement process, and deposition hazard area for deep-seated catastrophic landslide. The results of physical modeling were compared with those produced by numerical analysis (Application of discrete element method by PFC3D program) so that the correctness of the numerical simulation could be justified. Subsequently, calibrated numerical methods adopted in the small-scale model were used to simulate the full-scale model. The simulation

  18. The prognosis of radioactive contamination of an environment of Belarus after catastrophe on Chernobyl NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: On the 26th of April 1986 an accident at the 4th unit of the Chernobyl NPP took place. The accident became known to the whole world as a Chernobyl catastrophe. By its scale, by complexity of global problems stipulated by the accident, by long-term consequences it is the largest and the gravest catastrophe in the history of nuclear energy application. After Chernobyl catastrophe the system of radiation monitoring of the environment in Belarus has ensured the collection and analysis of information about radioactive contamination of an atmospheric air, surface waters and territories. These results of radiation monitoring are used for an estimation of a radiation condition of an environment and prognosis in future. The analysis of results of monitoring shows, that in the first period after catastrophe the maximum levels of an exposure gamma-rates in cities were fixed in Bragin (April 30, 1986). The results of monitoring show, that exposure gamma-rates decreases in a result of processes of natural radioactive decay and vertical migration of radionuclides in soil. The results of monitoring of exposure gamma-rates allow to make the prognosis and to calculate a year, when exposure gamma-rates will be equal to levels before the catastrophe on ChNPP. The numerical prognosis shows, that in Bragin town exposure gamma-rates will be equal to level before the catastrophe on ChNPP approximately after 65 years, in Slavgorod and Chechersk towns - after 23-24 years. Due to use GIS the prognosis of restoring of the contaminated territories, contaminated by Cs- 37 to 2016 and 2046 was obtained. The analysis of the evolution of area under contamination exceeding 37 kBq/m2 for the period 1986 - 2046 shows: - In 30 years (2016) the territory contaminated with levels in excess of 37 kBq/m2 will be approximately 16%, i.e. a decrease with a factor 1,5 in comparison with 1986; - In 60 years (2046) contaminated surface will be approximately 10%, i.e. will decrease with a factor 2

  19. Small Satellites Constellation for Monitoring of Natural and Man-made Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyarchuk, K.; Oraevsky, V.; Salikhov, R.; Danilkin, V.

    The possibility of creation a new conception of using the small satellites constellation arises today in connection with the development of the circuit technology for manufacturing real small space vehicles (SSV). Their low price allows to form the multi purpose satellite constellation. Such constellation is formed in frame of the Russian Federal space program till 2006. It is intended for monitoring of the natural (typhoons, hurricanes, eruptions of volcano etc.) and man-made (radioactive contamination etc.) catastrophes. The space segment will be designed and manufactured by Research Institute for Electromechanics Federal State Unitary Enterprise. The scientific instrumentation and program will be designed by IZMIRAN. Three types of SSV will be in the constellation: The high-altitude group is composed by 4 SV (200 kg each) and the low-altitude group consists of up to 12 SV (200 kg or 60 kg each). Parameters measured by the on-board information system are as follows: plasma composition, ionosphere altitude profile, UHF/VHF/HF noise factor, atmosphere glow, weather parameters, the Earth surface temperature, high-energy particles, magnetic field, electric field. The multi-spectrum instrumentation of remote sensing will be also mounted on vehicle. The first SV are scheduled to be launched to the sun-sinchronous orbit by ROCOT, STRELA or SHTEL launch- vehicles within 2005 - 2006. After realization of the first projects the system configuration can be changed.For example the multisatellite system can provide: - Short-term, intermediate term and long-term prognosis of earthquakes, typhoons, hurricanes, tsunami; - Monitoring of radioactive and other contaminations - Evaluation of extreme situations and consequences of catastrophes in regions; - Analysis of a condition of the equipment and pipelines of gas and oil complex, scattering of gas emissions in turbulent atmosphere, prediction of the probable man- made catastrophes; - Analysis of influence of solar activity on

  20. A Globally Consistent Methodology for an Exposure Model for Natural Catastrophe Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Pandey, Bishwa; Saito, Keiko

    2013-04-01

    There is a high demand for the development of a globally consistent and robust exposure data model employing a top down approach, to be used in national level catastrophic risk profiling for the public sector liability. To this effect, there are currently several initiatives such as UN-ISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR) and Global Exposure Database for Global Earthquake Model (GED4GEM). However, the consistency and granularity differs from region to region, a problem that is overcome in this proposed approach using national datasets for example in Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LCR). The methodology proposed in this paper aim to produce a global open exposure dataset based upon population, country specific building type distribution and other global/economic indicators such as World Bank indices that are suitable for natural catastrophe risk modelling purposes. The output would be a GIS raster grid at approximately 1 km spatial resolution which would highlight urbaness (building typology distribution, occupancy and use) for each cell at sub national level and compatible with other global initiatives and datasets. It would make use of datasets on population, census, demographic, building data and land use/land cover which are largely available in the public domain. The resultant exposure dataset could be used in conjunction with hazard and vulnerability components to create views of risk for multiple hazards that include earthquake, flood and windstorms. The model we hope would also assist in steps towards future initiatives for open, interchangeable and compatible databases for catastrophe risk modelling. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

  1. The restoration of radioactive-contaminated territories of Belarus after Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After Chernobyl catastrophes the system of radiation monitoring of the environment in Belarus has ensured the collection and analysis of information about radioactive contamination of an atmospheric air, surface waters and territories. These results of radiation monitoring are used for an estimation of a radiation condition of a environment and prognosis it of restoring. The analysis of results of monitoring shows, that in the first period after catastrophe the maximum levels of a exposure gamma-ray dose in cities were fixed in Bragin (April 30, 1986). The numerical prognosis shows, that the restoring of this magnitude lakes before catastrophe is possible to expect approximately in 65 years. The map of contamination of Belarus by Cs-137 was constructed about use Geo Information System based of results of monitoring, which are introduced in an automated data bank. Due to use GIS the prognosis of restoring of the contaminated territories, contaminated by Cs-137 to 2016 and 2046 was obtained. The analysis of dynamics of squares of contamination more than 37 kBq/sq.m for period 1986 - 2046 shows: The square of initial contamination (1986) by Cs-137 more than 37 kBq/sq.m was equaled 23,7 %; In 30 years (2016) squares of contamination will make approximately 16 %, i.e. will decrease in 1,5 on a comparison 1986; In 60 years (2046) squares of contamination will make approximately 10 %, i.e. will decrease in 2,4 on a comparison 1986. The prognosis of space distribution of activity Am-241 in Belarus shows, that the high levels of contamination will be in 30-km to a zone Chernobyl NPP and on around territories, where the population lives. Maximum volumes the activity of Am-241 will achieve to 2060 and will exceed activity of Pu-238,239,240 approximately in 2 times

  2. Catastrophes and conservation: Lessons from sea otters and the Exxon Valdez

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this commentary, the author considers the effort to save sea otters after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Despite immense expenditures, the emerging facts lead to two conclusions: population losses were poorly documented, and few animals were saved. These findings cast doubt on our ability to protect sea otters from future spills and lead to troubling questions about how to recognize and document the effects of catastrophic events, and, ultimately, the utility of highly visible and expensive efforts to save wildlife from perceived environmental catastrophes. On 24 March 1989, the Exxon Valdez ran aground on Bligh Reef in northeastern Prince William Sound, spilling more than 10 million gallons of crude oil. Catastrophic losses were expected and a monumental effort was made to save sea otters. The Exxon Valdez spill spread over a linear distance of more than 700 kilometers and soiled an estimated 5,300 kilometers of shoreline. While cleaning up and capturing oiled wildlife for rehabilitation, 878 sea otter carcasses were recovered - a minimal estimate of loss. However, many animals killed by the spill undoubtedly were not found. Losses have been estimated from pre- and post-spill surveys, although these surveys shed little light on the population-level effect, mainly because the size and distribution of the population just prior to the spill is poorly known. This is because a comprehensive survey of Prince William Sound and adjacent waters was not done immediately after the spill but before oil dispersed into southwestern Prince William Sound and the northern Gulf of Alaska. Thus, although the Exxon Valdez spill undoubtedly killed many sea otters and may have reduced populations substantially, available data lack the power to demonstrate population changes

  3. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, Carine; Blondiaux, Eleonore; Dacher, Jean-Nicolas [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Radiology, Rouen (France); Blanc, Thierry [University Hospital of Rouen, Department of Neonatal Medicine, Rouen (France); Borg, Jeanne-Yvonne [University Hospital of Rouen, Haematology Laboratory, Rouen (France)

    2006-08-15

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  4. Application of Cusp Catastrophe Theory to U.S. Stock Market Crashes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    Bratislava: University of Economics in Bratislava, 2008, s. 19-27 ISBN 978-80-8078-217-7. [Quantitative Methods in Economics: Multiplie Criteria Decision Making XIV. Tatranská Lomnica (SK), 05.07.2008-07.07.2008] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/0107 Grant ostatní: MŚMT(CZ) LC06075 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : cusp catastrophe * bifurcation, * singularity * stock market crash * nonlinear dynamics Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  5. Risk Assessment of Power System Catastrophic Failures and Hidden Failure Monitoring & Control System

    OpenAIRE

    Qiu, Qun

    2003-01-01

    One of the objectives of this study is to develop a methodology, together with a set of software programs that evaluate, in a power system, the risks of catastrophic failures caused by hidden failures in the hardware or software components of the protection system. The disturbance propagation mechanism is revealed by the analysis of the 1977 New York Blackout. The step-by-step process of estimating the relay hidden failure probability is presented. A Dynamic Event Tree for the risk-based ana...

  6. Possibility of catastrophic black hole growth in the warped brane-world scenario at the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, we present the results of our analysis of the growth and decay of black holes possibly produced at the Large Hadron Collider, based on our previous study of black holes in the context of the warped brane-world scenario. The black hole mass accretion and decay is obtained as a function of time, and the maximum black hole mass are obtained as a function of a critical mass parameter. The latter occurs in our expression for the luminosity and is related to the size of extra-dimensional corrections to Newton's law. Based on this analysis, we argue against the possibility of catastrophic black hole growth at the LHC.

  7. An undergraduate laboratory experiment on measuring the velocity of light with a catastrophic machine

    CERN Document Server

    Mishonov, T M; Maskimovski, D D; Manolev, S G; Gourev, V N; Yordanov, V G

    2016-01-01

    An experimental setup for electrostatic measurement of $\\varepsilon_0$, magneto-static measurement of $\\mu_0$ and determination of the velocity of light $c=1/\\sqrt{\\varepsilon_0 \\mu_0}$ with percent accuracy is described. No forces are measured with the experimental setup therefore there is no need of a scale and the experiment price less than \\pounds20 is mainly due to the batteries used. Multiplied 137~times, this experimental setup was given at the fourth open international Experimental Physics Olympiad (EPO4) and a dozen high school students did very well. This article, however, focuses on the catastrophe theory, which is the basis of the methodology.

  8. Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) Charger: Spacesuit Battery Charger Design with 2-Fault Tolerance to Catastrophic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Davies, Frank

    2009-01-01

    Charger design that is 2-fault tolerant to catastrophic has been achieved for the Spacesuit Li-ion Battery with key features. Power supply control circuit and 2 microprocessors independently control against overcharge. 3 microprocessor control against undercharge (false positive: Go for EVA) conditions. 2 independent channels provide functional redundancy. Capable of charge balancing cell banks in series. Cell manufacturing and performance uniformity is excellent with both designs. Once a few outliers are removed, LV cells are slightly more uniform than MoliJ cells. If cell balance feature of charger is ever invoked, it will be an indication of a significant degradation issue, not a nominal condition.

  9. A comprehensive model of catastrophic optical-damage in broad-area laser diodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, A. K.; Bertaska, R. K.; Jaspan, M. A.; Flusberg, A. M.; Swartz, S. D.; Knapczyk, M. T.; Petr, R.; Smilanski, I.; Jacob, J. H.

    2009-02-01

    The present model of formation and propagation of catastrophic optical-damage (COD), a random failure-mode in laser diodes, was formulated in 1974 and has remained substantially unchanged. We extend the model of COD phenomena, based on analytical studies involving EBIC (electron-beam induced current), STEM (scanning transmission-electron microscopy) and sophisticated optical-measurements. We have determined that a ring-cavity mode, whose presence has not been previously reported, significantly contributes to COD initiation and propagation in broad-area laser-diodes.

  10. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary embolism in a 3-year-old child

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We report a rare example of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a young child. A 3-year-old girl with no previous medical history presented with extensive and recurrent thromboses. The diagnosis of CAPS was based on the occurrence of cardiopulmonary embolism in the child with a high titre of autoantibodies directed against phospholipids and beta-2-glycoprotein 1. In spite of a relatively rapid diagnosis and multiple treatments, the outcome was unfavourable. Multimodality imaging, including both ultrasonography and spiral CT, allowed close follow-up of the thromboses. (orig.)

  11. Hydrogen Civilization Doctrine: Whether the Humankind Can Prevent Global Ecological Catastrophe?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GOLTSOV V. A.; GOLTSOVA L. F.; SPORTSMEN L. A.; GOLTSOVA M. V.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrogen Civilization (HyCi) doctrine is a novel world outlook,all-embracing vision of the sustainability of the human future:humanity can preclude world climate catastrophe and conserve the biosphere's ability to maintain the life of humanity by the only way,just by the sustainable movement along the vector "Hydrogen Energy → Hydrogen Economy → Hydrogen Civilization".HyCi doctrine is overcoming boundaries between different sciences,between peoples and nations.Hydrogen civilization is a public ideal (‘superattractor’)putting in the forefront Shakespeare's Hamlet question on a global scale:"To be or not to be the humankind:that is the question".

  12. Catastrophic optical mirror damage in diode lasers monitored during single-pulse operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zegler, M.; Tomm, J.W.; Reeber, D.;

    2009-01-01

    is achieved. The thermal runaway process is unambiguously related to the occurrence of a “thermal flash.” A one-by-one correlation between nearfield, thermal flash, thermal runaway, and structural damage is observed. The single-pulse excitation technique allows for controlling the propagation......Catastrophic optical mirror damage (COMD) is analyzed for 808 nm emitting diode lasers in single-pulse operation in order to separate facet degradation from subsequent degradation processes. During each pulse, nearfield and thermal images are monitored. A temporal resolution better than 7 µs...... of the structural damage into the cavity. We propose this technique for the analysis of early stages of COMD....

  13. An information system for analyzing some aspects of radiological contamination cause by Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we briefly report a set of programming tools designed to support the analysis of some aspects of radiological contamination caused by Chernobyl catastrophe. First of all a system for data storing is characterized; after mentioning basic data structures, two mutations of this system are described (one version for data collected during a pilot study and the second for the main investigation). Next the problems of data analysis are discussed. Again we distinguish between pilot and main analysis. A simple query language is introduced and the procedures for coding some variables are mentioned. Lastly the problems and difficulties arising during the whole analysis are specified. (author). 2 refs

  14. Dynamics of radioactive pollution of atmospheric air on the territory of Belarus after the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The dynamics of atmospheric air radioactive pollution on the territory of Belarus in the first period (April-May 1986) after the catastrophe on Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant has been considered. Dynamics of gamma-radiation exposure dose rate in several towns of the Republic for the period 1986-1993 has been presented. Average monthly values of total beta activity in near earth layer of the atmosphere in Brest, Gomel, Mozyr, Minsk, Mogilev for the period 1987-1989 have been given. The atmospheric air pollution by caesium-137 and strontium-90 in Mozyr, Gomel and Mogilev have also been shown. (author)

  15. Mutations of winter wheat induced by radionuclide contamination resulted from Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is shown that a high level of radionuclide contamination has been retained until 1992 in the zone of Chernobyl catastrophe (village Chistogalovka and the town of Pripyat).This causes the increase of the frequency of chromosome aberrations and visible mutations within the winter wheat (2.49 to 6.39 times) and (2.6 to 13.0 times), correspondingly. Chromosome aberrations and visible mutations which effect qualitative and quantitative characteristics, revealed over a long period of time, indicate that the retaining level of radionuclide contamination continues to be an efficient mutagen factor of the environment

  16. Targeting pain catastrophization in patients with fibromyalgia using virtual reality exposure therapy: a proof-of-concept study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Linzette Deidrè; Louw, Quinette Abegail; Grimmer, Karen Anne; Meintjes, Ernesta

    2015-11-01

    [Purpose] Pain catastrophizing is a key predictor of poor compliance to exercises among patients with fibromyalgia syndrome. Alteration of pain catastrophizing in this group is thus warranted. This study aimed to provide proof-of-concept of a novel virtual reality exposure therapy program as treatment for exercise-related pain catastrophizing in patients with fibromyalgia syndrome. [Subjects and Methods] An exploratory, case-controlled study was conducted (fibromyalgia syndrome group and matched control group). Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to acquire neural correlates. The functional magnetic resonance imaging task consisted of two stimuli: active (exercise activity visuals) and passive (relaxing visuals). Structural images and blood-oxygenation-level-dependent contrasts were acquired for the conditions and compared within subjects/groups and between groups. Statistic images were thresholded using corrected clusters (determined by Z>2.3; level of significance: 0.05). [Results] Thirteen fibromyalgia syndrome subjects and nine healthy matched controls were included. The right inferior frontal gyrus, right middle frontal gyrus, right posterior cerebellum, left thalamus, and left supramarginal gyrus were activated in the fibromyalgia syndrome subjects. [Conclusion] The study results provide preliminary proof indicating that exposing patients with fibromyalgia syndrome to visuals of exercises elicits neurophysiological changes in functional brain areas associated with pain catastrophization and add to the current body of knowledge regarding the possibility of objectively identifying cognitive behavioral strategies like pain catastrophization. PMID:26696719

  17. Breakout and Tether-cutting Eruption Models Are Both Catastrophic (Sometimes)

    CERN Document Server

    Longcope, D W

    2013-01-01

    We present a simplified analytic model of a quadrupolar magnetic field and flux rope to model coronal mass ejections. The model magnetic field is two-dimensional, force-free and has current only on the axis of the flux rope and within two currents sheets. It is a generalization of previous models containing a single current sheet anchored to a bipolar flux distribution. Our new model can undergo quasi-static evolution due either to changes at the boundary or to magnetic reconnection at either current sheet. We find that all three kinds of evolution can lead to a catastrophe known as loss of equilibrium. Some equilibria can be driven to catastrophic instability either through reconnection at the lower current sheet, known as tether cutting, or through reconnection at the upper current sheet, known as breakout. Other equilibria can be destabilized through only one and not the other. Still others undergo no instability, but evolve increasingly rapidly in response to slow steady driving (ideal or reconnective). O...

  18. Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J; Seager, T P; Rao, P S C; Convertino, M; Linkov, I

    2013-03-01

    Recent natural and man-made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience-based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures. PMID:22967095

  19. Catastrophic floods may pave the way for increased genetic diversity in endemic artesian spring snail populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Worthington Wilmer

    Full Text Available The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988-1990 and post (1995, 2002-2006 a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances in which they have evolved.

  20. Sri Lanka : de la lutte contre le terrorisme à la catastrophe humanitaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delon Madavan

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available La volonté du gouvernement sri lankais d’en finir militairement avec le LTTE a abouti à une catastrophe humanitaire. L’armée et les Tigres se rendent coupables de crime de guerre et de crime contre l’humanité à l’encontre des civils tamouls, qui sont piégés dans la zone de combat ou enfermés dans des camps de détention. La perception différenciée de l’opération militaire selon les communautés nécessiterait la création d’un Tribunal Pénal International pour Sri Lanka.The will of Sri Lankan government to finish militarily with LTTE has ended with an humanitarian catastrophe. Both the Sri Lankan Army and the Tigers are guilty of international war and humanitarian crimes against Tamil civilians, who are trapped in the war zone or locked in detention camps. The different perceptions of the military operation according to the communities should need the creation of an International Penal Court for Sri Lanka