Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

Science.gov (United States)

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2016-01-01

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Re-shuffling of species with climate disruption: a no-analog future for California birds?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Stralberg

2009-09-01

Full Text Available By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages.

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, James A.

2009-01-01

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this

Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Skagen, Susan K.; Dreitz, Victoria; Conrey, Reesa Y.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.; Knuffman, Lekha

2016-01-01

The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Sensitivity encompasses the innate characteristics of a species and, in this context, is related to a species’ tolerance to changes in weather patterns. Groundnesting birds, including prairie birds, are particularly responsive to heat waves combined with drought conditions, as revealed by abundance and distribution patterns (Albright et al. 2010). To further assess sensitivity, we estimated reproductive parameters of nearly 3000 breeding attempts of a suite of prairie birds relative to prevailing weather. Fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado, 1997-2014, influenced breeding performance of a suite of avian species endemic to the shortgrass prairie, many of which have experienced recent population declines. High summer temperatures and intense rain events corresponded with lower nest survival for most species. Although dry conditions favored nest survival of Burrowing Owls and Mountain Plovers (Conrey 2010, Dreitz et al. 2012), drought resulted in smaller clutch sizes and lower nest survival for passerines (Skagen and Yackel Adams 2012, Conrey et al. in review). Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that some passerine species can maintain stable breeding populations in this region of the shortgrass prairie.

A review of climate change effects on terrestrial rangeland birds

Science.gov (United States)

D. M. Finch; K. E. Bagne; M. M. Friggens; D. M. Smith; K. M. Brodhead

2011-01-01

We evaluated existing literature on predicted and known climate change effects on terrestrial rangeland birds. We asked the following questions: 1) How does climate change affect birds? 2) How will birds respond to climate change? 3) Are species already responding? 4) How will habitats be impacted?

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2017-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Elevational distribution and extinction risk in birds.

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Rachel L White

Full Text Available Mountainous regions are hotspots of terrestrial biodiversity. Unlike islands, which have been the focus of extensive research on extinction dynamics, fewer studies have examined mountain ranges even though they face increasing threats from human pressures - notably habitat conversion and climate change. Limits to the taxonomic and geographical extent and resolution of previously available information have precluded an explicit assessment of the relative role of elevational distribution in determining extinction risk. We use a new global species-level avian database to quantify the influence of elevational distribution (range, maximum and midpoint on extinction risk in birds at the global scale. We also tested this relationship within biogeographic realms, higher taxonomic levels, and across phylogenetic contrasts. Potential confounding variables (i.e. phylogenetic, distributional, morphological, life history and niche breadth were also tested and controlled for. We show that the three measures of elevational distribution are strong negative predictors of avian extinction risk, with elevational range comparable and complementary to that of geographical range size. Extinction risk was also found to be positively associated with body weight, development and adult survival, but negatively associated with reproduction and niche breadth. The robust and consistent findings from this study demonstrate the importance of elevational distribution as a key driver of variation in extinction dynamics in birds. Our results also highlight elevational distribution as a missing criterion in current schemes for quantifying extinction risk and setting species conservation priorities in birds. Further research is recommended to test for generality across non-avian taxa, which will require an advance in our knowledge of species' current elevational ranges and increased efforts to digitise and centralise such data.

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

2006-01-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

2006-07-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Qiongyu; Sauer, John R; Dubayah, Ralph O

2017-09-01

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr -1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing

The evolution of high summit metabolism and cold tolerance in birds and its impact on present-day distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, David L; Garland, Theodore

2009-01-01

Summit metabolic rate (M(sum), maximum cold-induced metabolic rate) is positively correlated with cold tolerance in birds, suggesting that high M(sum) is important for residency in cold climates. However, the phylogenetic distribution of high M(sum) among birds and the impact of its evolution on current distributions are not well understood. Two potential adaptive hypotheses might explain the phylogenetic distribution of high M(sum) among birds. The cold adaptation hypothesis contends that species wintering in cold climates should have higher M(sum) than species wintering in warmer climates. The flight adaptation hypothesis suggests that volant birds might be capable of generating high M(sum) as a byproduct of their muscular capacity for flight; thus, variation in M(sum) should be associated with capacity for sustained flight, one indicator of which is migration. We collected M(sum) data from the literature for 44 bird species and conducted both conventional and phylogenetically informed statistical analyses to examine the predictors of M(sum) variation. Significant phylogenetic signal was present for log body mass, log mass-adjusted M(sum), and average temperature in the winter range. In multiple regression models, log body mass, winter temperature, and clade were significant predictors of log M(sum). These results are consistent with a role for climate in determining M(sum) in birds, but also indicate that phylogenetic signal remains even after accounting for associations indicative of adaptation to winter temperature. Migratory strategy was never a significant predictor of log M(sum) in multiple regressions, a result that is not consistent with the flight adaptation hypothesis.

Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

OpenAIRE

Rodney B. Siegel; Peter Pyle; James H. Thorne; Andrew J. Holguin; Christine A. Howell; Sarah Stock; Morgan W. Tingley

2014-01-01

In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed i...

Public support for conserving bird species runs counter to climate change impacts on their distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick

2014-01-01

believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely...

Climate change leads to decreasing bird migration distances

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, M.E.; Perdeck, A.C.; van Balen, J.H.; Both, C.

2009-01-01

Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe, shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades, for birds ringed during the breeding season

Climate change leads to decreasing bird migration distances

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Visser, Marcel E.; Perdeck, Albert C.; van Balen, Johan H.; Both, Christiaan

Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe, shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades, for birds ringed during the breeding season

Climate change will seriously impact bird species dwelling above the treeline: A prospective study for the Italian Alps.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alatalo, Juha M; Gustin, Marco

2017-07-15

High mountain systems are predicted to be especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change, with the climatically-constrained tree limit rapidly shifted upslope. In turn, the impact of upward treeline migration on mountain-dwelling bird species is expected to significantly reduce habitat suitability. We developed the first projection of the expected climate-driven rise of the whole treeline (19,256km) of the Italian Alps. The study area extends over 20,700km 2 , ranging over 550km in longitude and 320km in latitude. We then investigated how much the expected treeline rise will induce a) shrinking and shifting of the elevation range and b) loss in suitable habitat for the flagship species rock ptarmigan, an alpine bird species dwelling above the treeline and, similarly to many other alpine species, highly vulnerable to treeline rise. We also investigated the potential gain in suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan due to the climate-driven upshift in the uppermost thermal limit. At lower altitudes (1500-1600m a.s.l.), the average expected upshift in the current treeline resulted in 195, 274 and 354m over the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long term (2070-2099) respectively. Above 2400m a.s.l., it was less than 30m even in the long term. Overall, during the three climate periods the extent of suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan above the current treeline is projected to decrease by 28.12%, 38.43% and 49.11% respectively. In contrast, the expected gain in suitable habitat due to the shift in the uppermost thermal limit will be severely restrained by the limited surface extension in the top portion of the Italian Alps. The presented approach can promote similar studies elsewhere in the globe, providing a regional perspective to the projection of climate change impact on bird species dwelling above the treeline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Widespread correlations between climatic niche evolution and species diversification in birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooney, Christopher R; Seddon, Nathalie; Tobias, Joseph A

2016-07-01

The adaptability of species' climatic niches can influence the dynamics of colonization and gene flow across climatic gradients, potentially increasing the likelihood of speciation or reducing extinction in the face of environmental change. However, previous comparative studies have tested these ideas using geographically, taxonomically and ecologically restricted samples, yielding mixed results, and thus the processes linking climatic niche evolution with diversification remain poorly understood. Focusing on birds, the largest and most widespread class of terrestrial vertebrates, we test whether variation in species diversification among clades is correlated with rates of climatic niche evolution and the extent to which these patterns are modified by underlying gradients in biogeography and species' ecology. We quantified climatic niches, latitudinal distribution and ecological traits for 7657 (˜75%) bird species based on geographical range polygons and then used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to test whether niche evolution was related to species richness and rates of diversification across genus- and family-level clades. We found that the rate of climatic niche evolution has a positive linear relationship with both species richness and diversification rate at two different taxonomic levels (genus and family). Furthermore, this positive association between labile climatic niches and diversification was detected regardless of variation in clade latitude or key ecological traits. Our findings suggest either that rapid adaptation to unoccupied areas of climatic niche space promotes avian diversification, or that diversification promotes adaptation. Either way, we propose that climatic niche evolution is a fundamental process regulating the link between climate and biodiversity at global scales, irrespective of the geographical and ecological context of speciation and extinction. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher L. Coxen

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1 satellite tracked birds and 2 observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4, and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786 and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639. Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Science.gov (United States)

Coxen, Christopher L.; Frey, Jennifer K.; Carleton, Scott A.; Collins, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores (I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert S Rempel

Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Climatic and hydrologic influences on wading bird foraging patterns in Everglades National Park

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.

2007-12-01

A goal of the Everglades National Park (ENP) restoration project is to ensure that the ecological health of the ENP improves as a direct result of management activities. Achieving hydrologic targets through the proper timing and amount of releases from control structures is a first step in the management process. Significant climate and weather variations in the region influence the ability to make releases and also determine the ecological outcomes. An assessment of the relative impact of climate variations and water releases to ENP in determining ecological outcomes is consequently a key to the evaluation of the success or failure of any restoration plan. Seasonal water depths in ENP depend on managed surface water releases from control structures and on direct rainfall. Here we link wading bird foraging patterns - a fundamental aspect of Everglades' ecology - to hydrologic management and climate variability in the National Park. Our objective is multifold. First, we relate the water levels at P33 and Shark Slough to the synoptic hydrologic conditions. Second, we develop a statistical model relating water levels at a station in central Shark Slough (P33) to wading birds foraging patterns throughout ENP. We attempt to apply a Hierarchical Bayesian scheme to a time series of wading bird to provide an uncertainty distribution of the population over specified time periods given hydrologic condition. Third, we develop a set of hydrologic index derived by recorded water level at P33 for a use of the statistical model of wading birds as an input. Our study will focus on great egret and white ibis that are major species among wading birds in the ENP. The great egret and white ibis prediction predicted by the model using the proposed predictors exhibits strong correlation with the observed streamflow, with an correlation 0.8.

Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Socolar, Jacob B; Epanchin, Peter N; Beissinger, Steven R; Tingley, Morgan W

2017-12-05

Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5-12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.

Response of birds to climatic variability; evidence from the western fringe of Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, Alison; Cooney, Tom; Jennings, Eleanor; Buscardo, Erika; Jones, Mike

2009-05-01

Ireland’s geographic location on the western fringe of the European continent, together with its island status and impoverished avifauna, provides a unique opportunity to observe changes in bird migration and distribution patterns in response to changing climatic conditions. Spring temperatures have increased in western Europe over the past 30 years in line with reported global warming. These have been shown, at least in part, to be responsible for changes in the timing of life cycle events (phenology) of plants and animals. In order to investigate the response of bird species in Ireland to changes in temperature, we examined ornithological records of trans-Saharan migrants over the 31-year period 1969-1999. Analysis of the data revealed that two discrete climatic phenomena produced different responses in summer migrant bird species. Firstly, a number of long-distance migrants showed a significant trend towards earlier arrival. This trend was evident in some species and was found to be a response to increasing spring air temperature particularly in the month of March. Secondly, (1) a step change in the pattern of occurrences of non-breeding migrant bird species, and (2) an increase in the ringing data of migrant species were found to correlate with a step change in temperature in 1987-1988. These results indicate that, for migrant bird species, the impact of a sudden change in temperature can be as important as any long-term monotonic trend, and we suggest that the impact of step change events merits further investigation on a wider range of species and across a greater geographical range.

The effects of climate change on terrestrial birds of North America

Science.gov (United States)

David King; Deborah M. Finch

2013-01-01

A discussion of avian responses to climate change is of interest for a number of reasons. First, because birds are relatively easy to identify and measure and their responses to environmental perturbation are relatively well known, they are useful as indicators of ecological change (1). Furthermore, birds are of conservation interest in their own right. Bird...

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Princé

Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

Science.gov (United States)

Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability

Influence of land use and climate on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole region of Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Forcey, G.M.; Linz, G.M.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Bleier, W.J.

2007-01-01

Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna. ?? 2007 NRC.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary

Vulnerability of birds to climate change in California's Sierra Nevada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodney B. Siegel

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA. The CCVI assesses species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change within a defined geographic area, through the integration of (a species' range maps, (b information about species' natural history traits and ecological relationships, (c historic and current climate data, and (d spatially explicit climate change projections. We conducted the assessment under two different downscaled climate models with divergent projections about future precipitation through the middle of the 21st century. Assessments differed relatively little under the two climate models. Of five CCVI vulnerability ranking categories, only one species, White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura, received the most vulnerable rank, Extremely Vulnerable. No species received the second-highest vulnerability ranking, Highly Vulnerable. Sixteen species scored as Moderately Vulnerable using one or both climate models: Common Merganser (Mergus merganser, Osprey (Pandion haliaetus, Bald Eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus, Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis, Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus, Prairie Falcon (Falco mexicanus, Spotted Sandpiper (Actitis macularius, Great Gray Owl (Strix nebulosa, Black Swift (Cypseloides niger, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana, American Dipper (Cinclus mexicanus, Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus, American Pipit (Anthus rubescens, Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis, Pine Grosbeak

Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

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Frank A La Sorte

Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

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Richard D Gregory

Full Text Available Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th and late 21(st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

Climate Change, Northern Birds of Conservation Concern and Matching the Hotspots of Habitat Suitability with the Reserve Network

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Virkkala, Raimo; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko

2013-01-01

National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered. PMID:23700420

Rapid adjustment of bird community compositions to local climatic variations and its functional consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaüzère, Pierre; Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent

2015-09-01

The local spatial congruence between climate changes and community changes has rarely been studied over large areas. We proposed one of the first comprehensive frameworks tracking local changes in community composition related to climate changes. First, we investigated whether and how 12 years of changes in the local composition of bird communities were related to local climate variations. Then, we tested the consequences of this climate-induced adjustment of communities on Grinnellian (habitat-related) and Eltonian (function-related) homogenization. A standardized protocol monitoring spatial and temporal trends of birds over France from 2001 to 2012 was used. For each plot and each year, we used the spring temperature and the spring precipitations and calculated three indices reflecting the thermal niche, the habitat specialization, and the functional originality of the species within a community. We then used a moving-window approach to estimate the spatial distribution of the temporal trends in each of these indices and their congruency with local climatic variations. Temperature fluctuations and community dynamics were found to be highly variable in space, but their variations were finely congruent. More interestingly, the community adjustment to temperature variations was nonmonotonous. Instead, unexplained fluctuations in community composition were observed up to a certain threshold of climate change intensity, above which a change in community composition was observed. This shift corresponded to a significant decrease in the relative abundance of habitat specialists and functionally original species within communities, regardless of the direction of temperature change. The investigation of variations in climate and community responses appears to be a central step toward a better understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity. Our results suggest a fine-scale and short-term adjustment of community composition to temperature changes. Moreover

Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah M Eglington

Full Text Available Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

Bird banding and climate change: can we make a difference?

Science.gov (United States)

C. John Ralph; Jared D. Wolfe

2014-01-01

So how does your banding effort fit into the new paradigm of climate science? A little background: many bird populations underwent mass declines during the 19th century from a variety of causes including hunting and habitat change. Current human-induced climate change represents a new and fast-acting pressure that is inherently more difficult to curtail and may drive...

The relative importance of climate and vegetation properties on patterns of North American breeding bird species richness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goetz, Scott J; Sun, Mindy; Zolkos, Scott; Hansen, Andy; Dubayah, Ralph

2014-01-01

Recent advances in remote sensing and ecological modeling warrant a timely and robust investigation of the ecological variables that underlie large-scale patterns of breeding bird species richness, particularly in the context of intensifying land use and climate change. Our objective was to address this need using an array of bioclimatic and remotely sensed data sets representing vegetation properties and structure, and other aspects of the physical environment. We first build models of bird species richness across breeding bird survey (BBS) routes, and then spatially predict richness across the coterminous US at moderately high spatial resolution (1 km). Predictor variables were derived from various sources and maps of species richness were generated for four groups (guilds) of birds with different breeding habitat affiliation (forest, grassland, open woodland, scrub/shrub), as well as all guilds combined. Predictions of forest bird distributions were strong (R 2 = 0.85), followed by grassland (0.76), scrub/shrub (0.63) and open woodland (0.60) species. Vegetation properties were generally the strongest determinants of species richness, whereas bioclimatic and lidar-derived vertical structure metrics were of variable importance and dependent upon the guild type. Environmental variables (climate and the physical environment) were also frequently selected predictors, but canopy structure variables were not as important as expected based on more local to regional scale studies. Relatively sparse sampling of canopy structure metrics from the satellite lidar sensor may have reduced their importance relative to other predictor variables across the study domain. We discuss these results in the context of the ecological drivers of species richness patterns, the spatial scale of bird diversity analyses, and the potential of next generation space-borne lidar systems relevant to vegetation and ecosystem studies. This study strengthens current understanding of bird species�

Environmental temperature affects prevalence of blood parasites of birds on an elevation gradient: implications for disease in a warming climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Itzel Zamora-Vilchis

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. Many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. To understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the Australian Wet Tropics along an elevation gradient. We used PCR screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma in 403 birds. The overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with Haemoproteus the predominant genus. A total of 48 unique lineages were detected. Independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. Parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. In contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. We showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. We found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change.

Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.

2012-01-01

The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant–animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.

Emergence of long distance bird migrations: a new model integrating global climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Louchart, Antoine

2008-12-01

During modern birds history, climatic and environmental conditions have evolved on wide scales. In a continuously changing world, landbirds annual migrations emerged and developed. However, models accounting for the origins of these avian migrations were formulated with static ecogeographic perspectives. Here I reviewed Cenozoic paleoclimatic and paleontological data relative to the palearctic paleotropical long distance (LD) migration system. This led to propose a new model for the origin of LD migrations, the ‘shifting home’ model (SHM). It is based on a dynamic perspective of climate evolution and may apply to the origins of most modern migrations. Non-migrant tropical African bird taxa were present at European latitudes during most of the Cenozoic. Their distribution limits shifted progressively toward modern tropical latitudes during periods of global cooling and increasing seasonality. In parallel, decreasing winter temperatures in the western Palearctic drove shifts of population winter ranges toward the equator. I propose that this induced the emergence of most short distance migrations, and in turn LD migrations. This model reconciliates ecologically tropical ancestry of most LD migrants with predominant winter range shifts, in accordance with requirements for heritable homing. In addition, it is more parsimonious than other non-exclusive models. Greater intrinsic plasticity of winter ranges implied by the SHM is supported by recently observed impacts of the present global warming on migrating birds. This may induce particular threats to some LD migrants. The ancestral, breeding homes of LD migrants were not ‘northern’ or ‘southern’ but shifted across high and middle latitudes while migrations emerged through winter range shifts themselves.

Understanding Climate Change and Manifestation of its Driven ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This article examines the nature and manifestation of climate change driven impacts on the agrarian districts of Kongwa and Bahi in the semi arid areas of Dodoma region in Tanzania. A Survey of 398 households in the study area was undertaken to elicit information on the nature and manifestation of climate change driven ...

Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

Science.gov (United States)

Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all

Ancestral origins and invasion pathways in a globally invasive bird correlate with climate and influences from bird trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Hazel; Strubbe, Diederik; Tollington, Simon; Prys-Jones, Robert; Matthysen, Erik; Groombridge, Jim J

2015-08-01

Invasive species present a major threat to global biodiversity. Understanding genetic patterns and evolutionary processes that reinforce successful establishment is paramount for elucidating mechanisms underlying biological invasions. Among birds, the ring-necked parakeet (Psittacula krameri) is one of the most successful invasive species, established in over 35 countries. However, little is known about the evolutionary genetic origins of this species and what population genetic signatures tell us about patterns of invasion. We reveal the ancestral origins of populations across the invasive range and explore the potential influence of climate and propagule pressure from the pet trade on observed genetic patterns. Ring-necked parakeet samples representing the ancestral native range (n = 96) were collected from museum specimens, and modern samples from the invasive range (n = 855) were gathered from across Europe, Mauritius and Seychelles, and sequenced for two mitochondrial DNA markers comprising 868 bp of cytochrome b and control region, and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Invasive populations comprise birds that originate predominantly from Pakistan and northern areas of India. Haplotypes associated with more northerly distribution limits in the ancestral native range were more prevalent in invasive populations in Europe, and the predominance of Asian haplotypes in Europe is consistent with the higher number of Asian birds transported by the pet trade outside the native range. Successful establishment of invasive species is likely to be underpinned by a combination of environmental and anthropogenic influences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-smart Kenyan crop hits a setback – hungry birds | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2013-08-07

Aug 7, 2013 ... He says that seeds are a major part of the birds' diet “but they seem .... the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia, a joint initiative of IDRC and DFID. ... Exploring farmers' perceptions of climate variation and change in ... Au Kenya, des oiseaux nuisent à une culture adaptée au climat.

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2018-01-01

Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen

Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

2010-01-01

The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

2015-01-01

Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days),

Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success.

Science.gov (United States)

Auer, Sonya K; Martin, Thomas E

2013-02-01

Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant-herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant-herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing-induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant-herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Thomas E.; Auer, Sonya K.

2013-01-01

Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant–herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant–herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing-induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant–herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Science.gov (United States)

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range

Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

2008-06-15

The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory K. Silber

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere. The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately

Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Zielinski, Sarah

Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

Birds of the US-Mexico borderlands: Distribution, ecology and conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Ruth, Janet M.; Brush, Tim; Krueper, David J.

2008-01-01

The concept for this volume began as a scientifi c symposium at the North American Ornithological Conference (NAOC) in Veracruz, Mexico in October 2006. The symposium was entitled “Avian Distributional Change, Anthropogenic Challenges, and Recent Avian Research and Technological Advances within the US–Mexico Border Region,” and was cochaired by two of us (DJK and TB) along with Carol Beardmore (Sonoran Joint Venture) and Bill Howe (USDI Fish and Wildlife Service). In light of the importance of the borderland region for birds and bird conservation, and because of the great need for additional information about this poorly studied region, we have compiled this volume to present new information about bird distribution, ecology, and conservation.

Patterns of distribution, abundance, and change over time in a subarctic marine bird community

Science.gov (United States)

Cushing, Daniel A.; Roby, Daniel D.; Irons, David B.

2018-01-01

Over recent decades, marine ecosystems of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, have experienced concurrent effects of natural and anthropogenic perturbations, including variability in the climate system of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We documented spatial and temporal patterns of variability in the summer marine bird community in relation to habitat and climate variability using boat-based surveys of marine birds conducted during the period 1989-2012. We hypothesized that a major factor structuring marine bird communities in PWS would be proximity to the shoreline, which is theorized to relate to aspects of food web structure. We also hypothesized that shifts in physical ecosystem drivers differentially affected nearshore-benthic and pelagic components of PWS food webs. We evaluated support for our hypotheses using an approach centered on community-level patterns of spatial and temporal variability. We found that an environmental gradient related to water depth and distance from shore was the dominant factor spatially structuring the marine bird community. Responses of marine birds to this onshore-offshore environmental gradient were related to dietary specialization, and separated marine bird taxa by prey type. The primary form of temporal variability over the study period was monotonic increases or decreases in abundance for 11 of 18 evaluated genera of marine birds; 8 genera had declined, whereas 3 had increased. The greatest declines occurred in genera associated with habitats that were deeper and farther from shore. Furthermore, most of the genera that declined primarily fed on pelagic prey resources, such as forage fish and mesozooplankton, and few were directly affected by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Our observations of synchronous declines are indicative of a shift in pelagic components of PWS food webs. This pattern was correlated with climate variability at time-scales of several years to a decade.

Patterns of distribution, abundance, and change over time in a subarctic marine bird community

Science.gov (United States)

Cushing, Daniel; Roby, Daniel D.; Irons, David B.

2017-01-01

Over recent decades, marine ecosystems of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, have experienced concurrent effects of natural and anthropogenic perturbations, including variability in the climate system of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We documented spatial and temporal patterns of variability in the summer marine bird community in relation to habitat and climate variability using boat-based surveys of marine birds conducted during the period 1989–2012. We hypothesized that a major factor structuring marine bird communities in PWS would be proximity to the shoreline, which is theorized to relate to aspects of food web structure. We also hypothesized that shifts in physical ecosystem drivers differentially affected nearshore-benthic and pelagic components of PWS food webs. We evaluated support for our hypotheses using an approach centered on community-level patterns of spatial and temporal variability. We found that an environmental gradient related to water depth and distance from shore was the dominant factor spatially structuring the marine bird community. Responses of marine birds to this onshore-offshore environmental gradient were related to dietary specialization, and separated marine bird taxa by prey type. The primary form of temporal variability over the study period was monotonic increases or decreases in abundance for 11 of 18 evaluated genera of marine birds; 8 genera had declined, whereas 3 had increased. The greatest declines occurred in genera associated with habitats that were deeper and farther from shore. Furthermore, most of the genera that declined primarily fed on pelagic prey resources, such as forage fish and mesozooplankton, and few were directly affected by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Our observations of synchronous declines are indicative of a shift in pelagic components of PWS food webs. This pattern was correlated with climate variability at time-scales of several years to a decade.

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Reese, Gordon; Skagen, Susan K.

2017-01-01

To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

2016-04-01

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

2017-11-14

Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Altitudinal patterns in breeding bird species richness and density in relation to climate, habitat heterogeneity, and migration influence in a temperate montane forest (South Korea).

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jin-Yong; Lee, Sanghun; Shin, Man-Seok; Lee, Chang-Hoon; Seo, Changwan; Eo, Soo Hyung

2018-01-01

Altitudinal patterns in the population ecology of mountain bird species are useful for predicting species occurrence and behavior. Numerous hypotheses about the complex interactions among environmental factors have been proposed; however, these still remain controversial. This study aimed to identify the altitudinal patterns in breeding bird species richness or density and to test the hypotheses that climate, habitat heterogeneity (horizontal and vertical), and heterospecific attraction in a temperate forest, South Korea. We conducted a field survey of 142 plots at altitudes between 200 and 1,400 m a.s.l in the breeding season. A total of 2,771 individuals from 53 breeding bird species were recorded. Altitudinal patterns of species richness and density showed a hump-shaped pattern, indicating that the highest richness and density could be observed at moderate altitudes. Models constructed with 13 combinations of six variables demonstrated that species richness was positively correlated with vertical and horizontal habitat heterogeneity. Density was positively correlated with vertical, but not horizontal habitat heterogeneity, and negatively correlated with migratory bird ratio. No significant relationships were found between spring temperature and species richness or density. Therefore, the observed patterns in species richness support the hypothesis that habitat heterogeneity, rather than climate, is the main driver of species richness. Also, neither habitat heterogeneity nor climate hypotheses fully explains the observed patterns in density. However, vertical habitat heterogeneity does likely help explain observed patterns in density. The heterospecific attraction hypothesis did not apply to the distribution of birds along the altitudinal gradient. Appropriate management of vertical habitat heterogeneity, such as vegetation cover, should be maintained for the conservation of bird diversity in this area.

Modeling the Distribution of Rare or Cryptic Bird Species of Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsai-Yu Wu

2012-12-01

Full Text Available For the study of the macroecology and conservation of Taiwan’s birds, there was an urgent need to develop distribution models of bird species whose distribution had never before been modeled. Therefore, we here model the distributions of 27 mostly rare and cryptic breeding bird species using a statistical approach which has been shown to be especially reliable for modeling species with a low sample size of presence localities, namely the maximum entropy (Maxent modeling technique. For this purpose, we began with a dedicated attempt to collate as much high-quality distributional data as possible, assembling databases from several scientific reports, contacting individual data recorders and searching publicly accessible database, the internet and the available literature. This effort resulted in 2022 grid cells of 1 × 1 km size being associated with a presence record for one of the 27 species. These records and 10 pre-selected environmental variables were then used to model each species’ probability distribution which we show here with all grid cells below the lowest presence threshold being converted to zeros. We then in detail discuss the interpretation and applicability of these distributions, whereby we pay close attention to habitat requirements, the intactness and fragmentation of their habitat, the general detectability of the species and data reliability. This study is another one in an ongoing series of studies which highlight the usefulness of using large electronic databases and modern analytical methods to help with the monitoring and assessment of Taiwan’s bird species.

Granivorous birds and sorghum crop in the province of Villa Clara,Cuba

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Orlando Miguel Saucedo Castillo

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In order to reduce the damages granivorous birds cause to sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench in the province of Villa Clara, Cuba, research based on the determination of the major endemic, migratory birds and their relationship with the distribution were made space of historical meteorological variables in the province in the seasonal behavior of birds in different climatic regions. Population to sorghum producers grouped in different forms surveys were conducted, which yielded a large database, such as the determination of the main grain-eating birds percentage damage incurred, varieties, grain color, growth stage and other indicators. Nine main species affecting sorghum grain-eating birds in our province were recorded; Passer domesticus, Lonchura malacca, Lonchura punctulata, Dives atroviolaceus, Passerina cyanea, Zonotrichia leucophrys, Columbina passerine, Zenaida macroura y Zenaida asiatica. The spatial distribution of meteorological variables and their relation to the seasonal behavior of birds in different climatic regions of the province was determined, based on record four preferential habitat areas. The results allowed us to provide companies and different forms of production in Villa Clara, the possibility of a varietal structure planting of sorghum on the basis of different preferential areas granivorous birds, together with the morphological and physiological characteristics of different genotypes introduced in agricultural production of the province and nationally.

North by north-west: climate change and directions of density shifts in birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Virkkala, Raimo

2016-03-01

There is increasing evidence that climate change shifts species distributions towards poles and mountain tops. However, most studies are based on presence-absence data, and either abundance or the observation effort has rarely been measured. In addition, hardly any studies have investigated the direction of shifts and factors affecting them. Here, we show using count data on a 1000 km south-north gradient in Finland, that between 1970-1989 and 2000-2012, 128 bird species shifted their densities, on average, 37 km towards the north north-east. The species-specific directions of the shifts in density were significantly explained by migration behaviour and habitat type. Although the temperatures have also moved on average towards the north north-east (186 km), the species-specific directions of the shifts in density and temperature did not correlate due to high variation in density shifts. Findings highlight that climate change is unlikely the only driver of the direction of species density shifts, but species-specific characteristics and human land-use practices are also influencing the direction. Furthermore, the alarming results show that former climatic conditions in the north-west corner of Finland have already moved out of the country. This highlights the need for an international approach in research and conservation actions to mitigate the impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Status, Distribution, and Diversity of Birds in Mining Environment of Kachchh, Gujarat

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Nikunj B. Gajera

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Opencast mining is one of the major reasons for the destruction of natural habitats for many wildlife including birds. The Kachchh region belongs to the arid part of India and is one of the rich areas of mineral resources in the country. In the recent time and after the 2001 earthquake, mining and other developmental activities are increased, and as a result, the natural habitats of birds are disturbed and fragmented. So, this study was conducted to assess the impact of mining and associated activities on the diversity and distribution of birds. Birds were studied by surveying 180 transects along 9 zones around three selected major mines, and each zone is made in every 2 km radius from the mine. Based on the record, it was found that the density and diversity of birds are highest in zone 5 and lowest in zone 1 and zone 2, respectively. The result indicates that the diversity and abundance of birds were less in zones which are located close to the mines in comparison to the zones far from the mines. In conclusion, mining and its associated activities have some impacts on the diversity and distribution of birds in Kachchh region in India.

Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

Science.gov (United States)

Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

2013-09-01

Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

2016-01-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of

The use of logistic regression in modelling the distributions of bird ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The method of logistic regression was used to model the observed geographical distribution patterns of bird species in Swaziland in relation to a set of environmental variables. Reporting rates derived from bird atlas data are used as an index of population densities. This is justified in part by the success of the modelling ...

Birds on the move in the face of climate change: High species turnover in northern Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Virkkala, Raimo; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2017-10-01

Species richness is predicted to increase in the northern latitudes in the warming climate due to ranges of many southern species expanding northwards. We studied changes in the composition of the whole avifauna and in bird species richness in a period of already warming climate in Finland (in northern Europe) covering 1,100 km in south-north gradient across the boreal zone (over 300,000 km 2 ). We compared bird species richness and species-specific changes (for all 235 bird species that occur in Finland) in range size (number of squares occupied) and range shifts (measured as median of area of occupancy) based on bird atlas studies between 1974-1989 and 2006-2010. In addition, we tested how the habitat preference and migration strategy of species explain species-specific variation in the change of the range size. The study was carried out in 10 km squares with similar research intensity in both time periods. The species richness did not change significantly between the two time periods. The composition of the bird fauna, however, changed considerably with 37.0% of species showing an increase and 34.9% a decrease in the numbers of occupied squares, that is, about equal number of species gained and lost their range. Altogether 95.7% of all species (225/235) showed changes either in the numbers of occupied squares or they experienced a range shift (or both). The range size of archipelago birds increased and long-distance migrants declined significantly. Range loss observed in long-distance migrants is in line with the observed population declines of long-distance migrants in the whole Europe. The results show that there is an ongoing considerable species turnover due to climate change and due to land use and other direct human influence. High bird species turnover observed in northern Europe may also affect the functional diversity of species communities.

Iodine metabolism and thyroid functions in various species of domestic animals and poultry birds. II - Distribution of iodine-131 in developing ova in poultry birds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parshad, Omkar; Setia, M.S.; Rattan, P.J.S.; Sodhi, S.P.S.; Varman, P.N.

1974-01-01

To study the distribution of iodine in different stages of developing ova in relation to iodine metabolism, twentyfour healthy laying birds were randomly distributed into four groups of 6 birds each. Each bird was injected with 25.26 μCi. of carrier-free iodine-131. Afterwards, birds of group I, II, III and IV were sacrificed at 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours respectively. The results have revealed that : (i) the state of development of ovum may be an important factor in controlling the distribution of iodine in ova; (ii) the iodine may be found distributed in both the lipid as well as non-lipid fractions of the ova; (iii) most of the iodine in the ova may be present in the form of inorganic iodine whereas very minor amount of the iodine may be as butanol-extractable iodine and (iv) the changes in iodine content in different stages of development of ova observed during the present study may be considered to have a direct effect on the overall metabolism of iodine in the poultry birds. (author)

Impact of climate change effecting Decline on Migration Birds of Bhadalwadi Lake Indapur Taluka M.S India

OpenAIRE

U.S .Gantaloo; Sangeeta B Dongare

2016-01-01

Environmental changes are now a day’s happening regularly day to day increase in temperature ,Scarcity of rainfall ,Drying of lakes have strong implication on Biodiversity .) .Global warming has set in motion and is affecting the timing of migration of birds .Birds are reliable indicator of environment change for centuries and their arrival indicate start of winter and departure summer in study area .There are many example of the effect of climate change on birds from all around t...

Filling the gaps: Using count survey data to predict bird density distribution patterns and estimate population sizes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sierdsema, H.; van Loon, E.E.

2008-01-01

Birds play an increasingly prominent role in politics, nature conservation and nature management. As a consequence, up-to-date and reliable spatial estimates of bird distributions over large areas are in high demand. The requested bird distribution maps are however not easily obtained. Intensive

Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D

2017-06-19

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.

How spatial variation in areal extent and configuration of labile vegetation states affect the riparian bird community in Arctic tundra.

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John-André Henden

Full Text Available The Arctic tundra is currently experiencing an unprecedented combination of climate change, change in grazing pressure by large herbivores and growing human activity. Thickets of tall shrubs represent a conspicuous vegetation state in northern and temperate ecosystems, where it serves important ecological functions, including habitat for wildlife. Thickets are however labile, as tall shrubs respond rapidly to both abiotic and biotic environmental drivers. Our aim was to assess how large-scale spatial variation in willow thicket areal extent, configuration and habitat structure affected bird abundance, occupancy rates and species richness so as to provide an empirical basis for predicting the outcome of environmental change for riparian tundra bird communities. Based on a 4-year count data series, obtained through a large-scale study design in low arctic tundra in northern Norway, statistical hierarchical community models were deployed to assess relations between habitat configuration and bird species occupancy and community richness. We found that species abundance, occupancy and richness were greatly affected by willow areal extent and configuration, habitat features likely to be affected by intense ungulate browsing as well as climate warming. In sum, total species richness was maximized in large and tall willow patches of small to intermediate degree of fragmentation. These community effects were mainly driven by responses in the occupancy rates of species depending on tall willows for foraging and breeding, while species favouring other vegetation states were not affected. In light of the predicted climate driven willow shrub encroachment in riparian tundra habitats, our study predicts that many bird species would increase in abundance, and that the bird community as a whole could become enriched. Conversely, in tundra regions where overabundance of large herbivores leads to decreased areal extent, reduced height and increased fragmentation

The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

2016-01-01

Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Liebergesell

Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

Determinants of bird species richness, endemism, and island network roles in Wallacea and the West Indies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalsgaard, Bo; Carstensen, Daniel Wisbech; Fjeldså, Jon

2014-01-01

, and network roles indicates that historical climate had little effects on extinction-immigration dynamics. This is in contrast to the strong effect of historical climate observed on the mainland, possibly because surrounding oceans buffer against strong climate oscillations and because geography is a strong....... Here, we evaluate the potential additional effects of historical climate on breeding land bird richness and endemism in Wallacea and the West Indies. Furthermore, on the basis of species distributions, we identify island biogeographical network roles and examine their association with geography......, current and historical climate, and bird richness/endemism. We found that island geography, especially island area but also isolation and elevation, largely explained the variation in island species richness and endemism. Current and historical climate only added marginally to our understanding...

Nepal’s National Red List of Birds

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Carol Inskipp

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The main objectives of the Nepal National Bird Red Data Book were to provide comprehensive and up-to-date accounts of all the bird species found in Nepal, assess their status applying the IUCN Guidelines at Regional Levels, identify threats to all bird species and recommend the most practical measures for their conservation.  It is hoped that the Bird RDB will help Nepal achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity target of preventing the extinction of known threatened species and improving their conservation status.  As population changes of Nepal’s birds have been studied for only a few species, assessments of species’ national status were mainly made by assessing changes in distribution.  Species distribution maps were produced for all of Nepal’s bird species except vagrants and compared to maps that were produced in 1991 using the same mapping system.  Of the 878 bird species recorded, 168 species (19% were assessed as nationally threatened. These comprise 68 (40% Critically Endangered species, 38 (23% Endangered species and 62 (37% Vulnerable species.  A total of 62 species was considered Near Threatened and 22 species Data Deficient.  Over 55% of the threatened birds are lowland grassland specialists, 25% are wetland birds and 24% tropical and sub-tropical broadleaved forest birds.  Larger birds appear to be more threatened than smaller birds with 98 (25% non-passerine species threatened and 67 (14% passerine species.  Habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation are the most important threats.  Other threats include chemical poisoning, over-exploitation, climate change, hydropower, invasive species, intensification of agriculture, disturbance, and limited conservation measures and research.  Measures to address these threats are described.  It was also concluded that re-assessments of the status of certain bird groups carried out every five years and the setting up of a national online system for storing and reporting

A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

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Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

2016-02-12

Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

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Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. B. B. Booth

2013-04-01

Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

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Kellermann, Jherime L.; van Riper, Charles

2015-01-01

Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

Distributions of Bacterial Generalists among the Guts of Birds ...

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Complex distributions of bacterial taxa within diverse animal microbiomes have inspired ecological and biogeographical approaches to revealing the functions of taxa that may be most important for host health. Of particular interest are bacteria that find many diverse habitats suitable for growth and remain competitive amongst finely-tuned host specialists. While previous work has focused on identifying these specialists, here our aims were to 1) identify generalist taxa, 2) identify taxonomic clades with enriched generalist diversity, and 3) describe the distribution of the largest generalist groups among hosts. We analyzed existing bacterial rRNA tag-sequencing data (v6) available on VAMPs (vamps.mbl.edu) from the microbiomes of 12 host species (106 samples total) spanning birds, mammals, and fish for generalist taxa using the CLAM test. OTUs with approximately equal abundance and a minimum of 10 reads in two hosts were classified as generalists. Generalist OTUs (n=2,982) were found in all hosts tested. Bacterial families Alcaligenaceae and Burkholderiaceae were significantly enriched with generalists OTUs compared to other families. Bacterial families such as Bacteroidaceae and Lachnospiraceae significantly lacked generalists OTUs compared to other families. Enterobacteriaceae, Peptostreptococcaceae, and Erysipelotrichaceae more so than other bacterial families were widely distributed and abundant in birds, mammals, and fish suggesting that these taxa mainta

Elevational Gradients in Bird Diversity in the Eastern Himalaya: An Evaluation of Distribution Patterns and Their Underlying Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Acharya, Bhoj Kumar; Sanders, Nathan J.; Vijayan, Lalitha; Chettri, Basundhara

2011-01-01

Background Understanding diversity patterns and the mechanisms underlying those patterns along elevational gradients is critically important for conservation efforts in montane ecosystems, especially those that are biodiversity hotspots. Despite recent advances, consensus on the underlying causes, or even the relative influence of a suite of factors on elevational diversity patterns has remained elusive. Methods and Principal Findings We examined patterns of species richness, density and range size distribution of birds, and the suite of biotic and abiotic factors (primary productivity, habitat variables, climatic factors and geometric constraints) that governs diversity along a 4500-m elevational gradient in the Eastern Himalayan region, a biodiversity hotspot within the world's tallest mountains. We used point count methods for sampling birds and quadrats for estimating vegetation at 22 sites along the elevational gradient. We found that species richness increased to approximately 2000 m, then declined. We found no evidence that geometric constraints influenced this pattern, whereas actual evapotranspiration (a surrogate for primary productivity) and various habitat variables (plant species richness, shrub density and basal area of trees) accounted for most of the variation in bird species richness. We also observed that ranges of most bird species were narrow along the elevation gradient. We find little evidence to support Rapoport's rule for the birds of Sikkim region of the Himalaya. Conclusions and Significance This study in the Eastern Himalaya indicates that species richness of birds is highest at intermediate elevations along one of the most extensive elevational gradients ever examined. Additionally, primary productivity and factors associated with habitat accounted for most of the variation in avian species richness. The diversity peak at intermediate elevations and the narrow elevational ranges of most species suggest important conservation implications

Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Availability and Configuration for an Endemic Coastal Alpine Bird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle M Jackson

Full Text Available North America's coastal mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet harbour a number of endemic species. With little room "at the top" to track shifting climate envelopes, alpine species may be especially negatively affected by climate-induced habitat fragmentation. We ask how climate change will affect the total amount, mean patch size, and number of patches of suitable habitat for Vancouver Island White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura saxatilis; VIWTP, a threatened, endemic alpine bird. Using a Random Forest model and a unique dataset consisting of citizen science observations combined with field surveys, we predict the distribution and configuration of potential suitable summer habitat for VIWTP under baseline and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climates using three general circulation models and two greenhouse gas scenarios. VIWTP summer habitat is predicted to decline by an average of 25%, 44%, and 56% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, under the low greenhouse gas scenario and 27%, 59%, and 74% under the high scenario. Habitat patches are predicted to become fragmented, with a 52-79% reduction in mean patch size. The average elevation of suitable habitat patches is expected to increase, reflecting a loss of patches at lower elevations. Thus ptarmigan are in danger of being "squeezed off the mountain", as their remaining suitable habitat will be increasingly confined to mountaintops in the center of the island. The extent to which ptarmigan will be able to persist in increasingly fragmented habitat is unclear. Much will depend on their ability to move throughout a more heterogeneous landscape, utilize smaller breeding areas, and survive increasingly variable climate extremes. Our results emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and protection for high elevation specialist species, and suggest that White-tailed Ptarmigan should be considered an indicator species for alpine ecosystems in the face of

Climate-driven changes in water level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik

2013-01-01

level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions...... hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350-8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260-8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...

Climate and changing winter distribution of alcids in the Northwest Atlantic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard R. Veit

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Population level impacts upon seabirds from changing climate are increasingly evident, and include effects on phenology, migration, dispersal, annual survivorship and reproduction. Most population data on seabirds derive from nesting colonies; documented climate impacts on winter ecology are scarce. We studied interannual variability in winter abundance of six species of alcids (Charadriiformes, Alcidae from a 58-year time series of data collected in Massachusetts 1954-2011. We used counts of birds taken during fall and winter from coastal vantage points. Counts were made by amateur birders, but coverage was consistent in timing and location. We found significant association between winter abundance of all six species of alcids and climate, indexed by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, at two temporal scales: 1. Significant linear trends at the 58-year scale of the time series; and 2. Shorter term fluctuations corresponding to the 5-8 year periodicity of NAO. Thus, variation in winter abundance of all six species of alcids was significantly related to the combined short-term and longer-term components of variation in NAO. Two low-Arctic species (Atlantic Puffin and Black Guillemot peaked during NAO positive years, while two high Arctic species (Dovekie and Thick-billed Murre peaked during NAO negative years. For Common Murres and Razorbills, southward shifts in winter distribution have been accompanied by southward expansion of breeding range, and increase within the core of the range. The proximate mechanism governing these changes is unclear, but, as for most other species of seabirds whose distributions have changed with climate, seems likely to be through their prey.

Distribution and conservation of three important bird groups of the Atlantic Forest in north-east Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, G A; Araújo, H F P; Azevedo-Júnior, S M

2016-01-01

The Pernambuco Endemism Center in north-east Brazil has the most fragmented forest cover and the largest number of threatened birds of the whole Atlantic Forest. We analyzed the distribution of three groups of bird species: forest-dependent, endemic and/or threatened using the interpolation method of Inverse Distance Weighting. We also checked the concentration of these birds in protected and unprotected areas, suggesting new sites that need to be protected. The richness concentration of forest-dependent, endemic and/or threatened birds in 123 sites were analysed. There was a greater concentration of the three groups in north Alagoas, south and north Pernambuco, and north and west Paraíba. The distribution of the three groups was almost regular in different vegetation types, although a lower concentration was found in the pioneer formation. There was a greater concentration of birds from all three groups between Pernambuco and Alagoas, and this must be due to the presence of more forest fragments with better structure and vegetation heterogeneity. The protected and unprotected areas hosted important records of endemic and/or threatened birds. We suggested some important places for implementation of new protected areas due to the larger concentrations of the target birds and because they are located within the boundaries of the Important Bird Areas.

Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years.

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Wu, Jianguo

2016-01-01

It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

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Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions

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Macmynowski, Dena P.; Root, Terry L.

2007-05-01

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979 2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.

Monitoring potential geographical distribution of four wild bird species in China

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, S.; Feng, D.; Xu, B.

2015-12-01

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype in wild birds and poultry have caught worldwide attention. To explore the association between wild bird migration and avian influenza virus transmission, we monitored potential geographical distribution of four wild bird species that might carry the avian influenza viruses in China. They are Bar-headed geese (Anser indicus), Ruddy Shelduck (Tadorna ferruginea), Whooper Swan (Cygnus cygnus) and Black-headed Gull (Larus ridibundus). They served as major reservoir of the avian influenza viruses. We used bird watching records with the precise latitude/longitude coordinates from January 2002 to August 2014, and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 5 km × 5 km from 2002 to 2014. The study utilized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on ecological niche model approaches, and got the following results: 1) MaxEnt model have good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.86-0.97; 2) The four wild bird species were estimated to concentrate in the North China Plain, the middle and lower region of the Yangtze River, Qinghai Lake, Tianshan Mountain and Tarim Basin, part of Tibet Plateau, and Hengduan Mountains; 3) Radiation and the minimum temperature were found to provide the most significant information. Our findings will help to understand the spread of avian influenza viruses by wild bird migration in China, which benefits for effective monitoring strategies and prevention measures.

Distribution and conservation of three important bird groups of the Atlantic Forest in north-east Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. A. Pereira

Full Text Available Abstract The Pernambuco Endemism Center in north-east Brazil has the most fragmented forest cover and the largest number of threatened birds of the whole Atlantic Forest. We analyzed the distribution of three groups of bird species: forest-dependent, endemic and/or threatened using the interpolation method of Inverse Distance Weighting. We also checked the concentration of these birds in protected and unprotected areas, suggesting new sites that need to be protected. The richness concentration of forest-dependent, endemic and/or threatened birds in 123 sites were analysed. There was a greater concentration of the three groups in north Alagoas, south and north Pernambuco, and north and west Paraíba. The distribution of the three groups was almost regular in different vegetation types, although a lower concentration was found in the pioneer formation. There was a greater concentration of birds from all three groups between Pernambuco and Alagoas, and this must be due to the presence of more forest fragments with better structure and vegetation heterogeneity. The protected and unprotected areas hosted important records of endemic and/or threatened birds. We suggested some important places for implementation of new protected areas due to the larger concentrations of the target birds and because they are located within the boundaries of the Important Bird Areas.

Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population.

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Pulido, Francisco; Berthold, Peter

2010-04-20

Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution, abundance, and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds, but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic adjustments are largely unknown. This knowledge is still crucial to predict whether populations of migratory birds will adapt to a rapid increase in temperature. We monitored migratory behavior in a population of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) to test for evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Using a common garden experiment in time and captive breeding we demonstrated a genetic reduction in migratory activity and evolutionary change in phenotypic plasticity of migration onset. An artificial selection experiment further revealed that residency will rapidly evolve in completely migratory bird populations if selection for shorter migration distance persists. Our findings suggest that current alterations of the environment are favoring birds wintering closer to the breeding grounds and that populations of migratory birds have strongly responded to these changes in selection. The reduction of migratory activity is probably an important evolutionary process in the adaptation of migratory birds to climate change, because it reduces migration costs and facilitates the rapid adjustment to the shifts in the timing of food availability during reproduction.

Lessons learned while integrating habitat, dispersal, disturbance, and life-history traits into species habitat models under climate change

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Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2011-01-01

We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134...

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Leedale

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Quantum work distribution for a driven diatomic molecule

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonard, Alison; Deffner, Sebastian

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A method for calculating the time-dependent solution for a driven system is proposed. • These solutions are used to compute the quantum work distribution. • This distribution is calculated for the Morse potential mimicking a diatomic molecule. • Due to bound and scattering states distribution exhibits continuous and discrete part. • Result is compared with that of a harmonic approximation. - Abstract: We compute the quantum work distribution for a driven Morse oscillator. To this end, we solve the time-dependent dynamics for a scale-invariant process, from which the exact expressions for the transition probabilities are found. Special emphasis is put on the contributions to the work distribution from discrete (bound) and continuous (scattering) parts of the spectrum. The analysis is concluded by comparing the work distribution for the exact Morse potential and the one resulting from a harmonic approximation

Climate-driven Sympatry does not Lead to Foraging Competition Between Adélie and Gentoo Penguins

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Cimino, M. A.; Moline, M. A.; Fraser, W.; Patterson-Fraser, D.; Oliver, M. J.

2016-02-01

Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species, population shifts and changes in ecosystem structure. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. At Palmer Station, we tested for foraging competition between these species by comparing their prey, Antarctic krill, distributions and penguin foraging behaviors on fine scales. To study these predator-prey dynamics, we simultaneously deployed penguin satellite transmitters, and a REMUS autonomous underwater vehicle that acoustically detected krill aggregations and measured physical and biological properties of the water column. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguin. In the upper 100 m of the water column, the distribution of krill aggregations were mainly associated with CHL and light, suggesting that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. Adélie and gentoo penguins mainly had spatially segregated foraging areas but in areas of overlap, gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is the major driver of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories.

Seasonal Changes in Bird Species and Feeding Guilds along Elevational Gradients of the Central Himalayas, Nepal

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Katuwal, Hem Bahadur; Basnet, Khadga; Khanal, Bhaiya; Devkota, Shiva; Rai, Sanjeev Kumar; Gajurel, Jyoti Prasad; Scheidegger, Christoph; Nobis, Michael P.

2016-01-01

The Himalayas are a global hotspot for bird diversity with a large number of threatened species, but little is known about seasonal changes in bird communities along elevational gradients in this region. We studied the seasonality of bird diversity in six valleys of the Central Himalayas, Nepal. Using 318 plots with a 50 m radius, located from 2200 to 3800 m a.s.l., and repeated sampling during different seasons (mainly pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon), we analyzed 3642 occurrences of 178 species. Birds classified in the literature as resident were more species-rich than migratory birds (140 vs. 38 species). In all six valleys and within the studied elevation range, species richness of all birds showed a peak at mid-elevation levels of 2600 or 3000 m a.s.l. Similar patterns were found for the most species-rich feeding guilds of insectivores (96 species) and omnivores (24 species), whereas the species richness of herbivores (37 species including frugivores) increased towards higher elevations. Among these feeding guilds, only species richness of insectivores showed pronounced seasonal changes with higher species numbers during post-monsoon season. Similarly, individual bird species showed distinct spatio-temporal distribution patterns, with transitions from species dominated by elevational differences to those characterized by strong seasonal changes. In an era of climate change, the results demonstrate that individual bird species as well as feeding guilds might greatly differ in their responses to climate warming and changes in the seasonality of the precipitation regime, two aspects of climate change which should not be analyzed independently. PMID:27367903

Distributed Energy Generation for Climate Resilience

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stout, Sherry; Hotchkiss, Eliza

2017-05-24

Distributed generation can play a critical role in supporting climate adaptation goals. This infographic style poster will showcase the role of distributed generation in achieving a wide range of technical and policy goals and social services associated with climate adaptation.

Bird diversity and distribution in relation to urban landscape types in northern Rwanda.

Science.gov (United States)

Gatesire, T; Nsabimana, D; Nyiramana, A; Seburanga, J L; Mirville, M O

2014-01-01

Using the point count method, linear mixed models, Shannon's diversity index, and Bray-Curtis cluster analysis, we conducted a study of the effect of urban fabric layout on bird diversity and distribution in northern Rwanda. The results showed a significant effect of city landscapes on bird richness and relative abundance; residential neighborhoods, institutional grounds, and informal settlements had the highest species diversity in comparison to other microlandscape types. Riversides were characterized by specialized bird species, commonly known to be restricted to wetland environments. Built-up areas and open field landscapes had comparable results. One Albertine Rift endemic bird species, the Ruwenzori Double-collared Sunbird (Cinnyris stuhlmanni), was recorded. Three migratory birds were found in Musanze city for the first time: the Common Sandpiper (Actitis hypoleucos), the Spotted Flycatcher (Muscicapa striata), and the Willow Warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus). Two bird species have not been previously reported in Rwanda: the Garden Warbler (Sylvia borin) and the Lesser Spotted Eagle (Aquila pomarina). The implications of this study are particularly relevant to urban decision makers who should consider the existence of a great diversity of avian fauna when developing and implementing master plans, especially when villages and cities are in proximity of protected areas or natural reserves.

Contemporary white-band disease in Caribbean corals driven by climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Randall, C. J.; van Woesik, R.

2015-04-01

Over the past 40 years, two of the dominant reef-building corals in the Caribbean, Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis, have experienced unprecedented declines. That loss has been largely attributed to a syndrome commonly referred to as white-band disease. Climate change-driven increases in sea surface temperature (SST) have been linked to several coral diseases, yet, despite decades of research, the attribution of white-band disease to climate change remains unknown. Here we hindcasted the potential relationship between recent ocean warming and outbreaks of white-band disease on acroporid corals. We quantified eight SST metrics, including rates of change in SST and contemporary thermal anomalies, and compared them with records of white-band disease on A. palmata and A. cervicornis from 473 sites across the Caribbean, surveyed from 1997 to 2004. The results of our models suggest that decades-long climate-driven changes in SST, increases in thermal minima, and the breach of thermal maxima have all played significant roles in the spread of white-band disease. We conclude that white-band disease has been strongly coupled with thermal stresses associated with climate change, which has contributed to the regional decline of these once-dominant reef-building corals.

Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra arthropods using weather and seasonal variations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tulp, I.; Schekkerman, H.

2008-01-01

Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra Arthropods using weather and seasonal variation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tulp, I.Y.M.; Schekkerman, H.

2008-01-01

Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

A GIS-driven integrated real-time surveillance pilot system for national West Nile virus dead bird surveillance in Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aramini Jeff

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An extensive West Nile virus surveillance program of dead birds, mosquitoes, horses, and human infection has been launched as a result of West Nile virus first being reported in Canada in 2001. Some desktop and web GIS have been applied to West Nile virus dead bird surveillance. There have been urgent needs for a comprehensive GIS services and real-time surveillance. Results A pilot system was developed to integrate real-time surveillance, real-time GIS, and Open GIS technology in order to enhance West Nile virus dead bird surveillance in Canada. Driven and linked by the newly developed real-time web GIS technology, this integrated real-time surveillance system includes conventional real-time web-based surveillance components, integrated real-time GIS components, and integrated Open GIS components. The pilot system identified the major GIS functions and capacities that may be important to public health surveillance. The six web GIS clients provide a wide range of GIS tools for public health surveillance. The pilot system has been serving Canadian national West Nile virus dead bird surveillance since 2005 and is adaptable to serve other disease surveillance. Conclusion This pilot system has streamlined, enriched and enhanced national West Nile virus dead bird surveillance in Canada, improved productivity, and reduced operation cost. Its real-time GIS technology, static map technology, WMS integration, and its integration with non-GIS real-time surveillance system made this pilot system unique in surveillance and public health GIS.

A Science-Driven Photojournalistic Documentation of Climate Change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Braasch, G.; Rothlein, J. E.

2013-12-01

Office of the President; two original books (one for middle schools with a co-author); publication in hundreds of magazines, textbooks and public interest websites; use during university, government and civic seminars and scientific meetings; and distribution among and use by Congressional offices. Most recently the project inspired films about youth involvement in citizen science and climate change education; and co-developed Apps for the iPad and iPhone which graphically show climate-driven changes in repeat photographs and maps. Financial support for this work has come principally from publication fees and grants from small foundations and individuals (via Blue Earth Alliance of Seattle).

How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

Science.gov (United States)

Lacressonnière, G.; Peuch, V.-H.; Arteta, J.; Josse, B.; Joly, M.; Marécal, V.; Saint Martin, D.; Déqué, M.; Watson, L.

2012-12-01

Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10. We study how the simulations driven by climate

Understanding patterns of vegetation structure and distribution across Great Smoky Mountains National Park using LiDAR and meteorology data

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Norman, S. P.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) in Tennessee is a biodiversity hotspot and home to a large number of plant, animal and bird species. Driven by gradients of climate (ex. temperature, precipitation regimes), topography (ex. elevation, slope, aspect), geology (ex. soil types, textures, depth), hydrology (ex. drainage, moisture availability) etc. GSMNP offers a diverse composition and distribution of vegetation which in turn supports an array of wildlife. Understanding the vegetation canopy structure is critical to understand, monitor and manage the complex forest ecosystems like the Great Smoky Mountain National Park (GSMNP). Vegetation canopies not only help understand the vegetation, but are also a critically important habitat characteristics of many threatened and endangered animal and bird species that GSMNP is home to. Using airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) we characterize the three-dimensional structure of the vegetation. LiDAR based analysis gives detailed insight in the canopy structure (overstory and understory) and its spatial variability within and across forest types. Vegetation structure and spatial distribution show strong correlation with climate, topographic, and edaphic variables and our multivariate analysis not just mines rich and large LiDAR data but presents ecological insights and data for vegetation within the park that can be useful to forest managers in their management and conservation efforts.

Greenness and Carbon Stocks of Mangroves: A climate-driven Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Lule, A. V.; Colditz, R. R.; Herrera-Silveira, J.; Guevara, M.; Rodriguez-Zuniga, M. T.; Cruz, I.; Ressl, R.; Vargas, R.

2017-12-01

Mangroves cover less than 1% of the earth's surface and are one o­­­f the most productive ecosystems of the world. They are highly vulnerable to climate variability due to their sensitivity to environmental changes; therefore, there are scientific and societal needs to designed frameworks to assess mangrove's vulnerability. We study the relationship between climate drivers, canopy greenness and carbon stocks to quantify a potential climate-driven effect on mangrove carbon dynamics. We identify greenness trends and their relationships with climate drivers and carbon stocks throughout 15 years (2001-2015) across mangrove forests of Mexico. We defined several categories for mangroves: a) Arid mangroves with superficial water input (ARsw); b) Humid mangroves with interior or underground water input (HUiw); and c) Humid mangroves with superficial water input (HUsw). We found a positive significant trend of greenness for ARsw and HUsw categories (pmangrove's categories (pmangrove categories showed higher greenness values during winter; which is likely driven by temperature with a lag of -3 to -5 months (r2 > 0.69). Precipitation and temperature drive canopy greenness only across HUsw. Regarding carbon stocks, the HUiw shows the lower amount of aboveground carbon (AGC; 12.7 Mg C ha-1) and the higher belowground carbon (BGC; 219 Mg C ha-1). The HUsw shows the higher amount of AGC (169.5 Mg C ha-1) and the ARsw the lower of BGC (92.4 Mg C ha-1). Climate drivers are better related with canopy greenness and AGC for both humid mangrove categories (r2 > 0.48), while the relationship of BGC and canopy greenness is lower for all categories (r2 mangrove's ecosystem function and environmental services, as well as their potential vulnerability to climate variability.

Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Rapacciuolo

Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months

Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

CERN Document Server

Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

2016-01-01

Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

The influence of vegetation on bird distribution in dry forests and oak woodlands of western Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Corcuera

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The bird species distribution along a dry forest-oak woodland vegetation gradient was studied in autumn and spring in two consecutive years. Intra-seasonal comparisons showed that bird species had similar distributions in each of the two years. Inter-seasonal changes were mainly due to compositional differences even though resident species generally used similar habitats in both seasons. Ordination analyses, based on the first year bird species abundances, showed a clearly segregated distribution between forest and woodland birds. Within these two vegetation types, the distribution tended to be more individualistic. Nevertheless further habitats could be identified according to groups of birds having similar distributions. These habitats did not correspond to the plant associations which resulted from a previous classification of the vegetation. Observations of the plant use by the birds during the study period showed that, in most cases, the plant variables associated with ordination analyses are unlikely to be very important for the bird species life cycles. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54(2: 657-672. Epub 2005 Jun 01.Se estudió la distribución de especies de aves a lo largo de un gradiente de vegetación bosque seco - bosque de encino en el otoño y primavera de dos años consecutivos. Las comparaciones intra-estacionales mostraron distribuciones similares de las especies de aves en ambos años. Los cambios inter-estacionales se debieron principalmente a diferencias en la composición, aunque las especies residentes normalmente usan hábitats similares en ambas estaciones. Los análisis de ordenación, basados en las abundancias de las aves en el primer año de muestreo, mostraron una distribución claramente segregada entre aves del bosque seco y del bosque de encino. Aunque la distribución de las especies fue más azarosa dentro de cada tipo de vegetación, se pudieron identificar ciertos hábitats en base a grupos de aves con distribuciones

Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiří Flousek

Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

Distributed Generation to Support Development-Focused Climate Action

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cox, Sadie; Gagnon, Pieter; Stout, Sherry; Zinaman, Owen; Watson, Andrea; Hotchkiss, Eliza

2016-09-01

This paper explores the role of distributed generation, with a high renewable energy contribution, in supporting low emission climate-resilient development. The paper presents potential impacts on development (via energy access), greenhouse gas emission mitigation, and climate resilience directly associated with distributed generation, as well as specific actions that may enhance or increase the likelihood of climate and development benefits. This paper also seeks to provide practical and timely insights to support distributed generation policymaking and planning within the context of common climate and development goals as the distributed generation landscape rapidly evolves globally. Country-specific distributed generation policy and program examples, as well as analytical tools that can inform efforts internationally, are also highlighted throughout the paper.

Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population

OpenAIRE

Pulido, Francisco; Berthold, Peter

2010-01-01

Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution, abundance, and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds, but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic adjustments are largely unknown. This knowledge is still crucial to predict whether populations of migratory birds will adapt to a rapid increase in temperature. We monitored migratory behavior in...

Asymptotic work distributions in driven bistable systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nickelsen, D; Engel, A

2012-01-01

The asymptotic tails of the probability distributions of thermodynamic quantities convey important information about the physics of nanoscopic systems driven out of equilibrium. We apply a recently proposed method to analytically determine the asymptotics of work distributions in Langevin systems to an one-dimensional model of single-molecule force spectroscopy. The results are in excellent agreement with numerical simulations, even in the centre of the distributions. We compare our findings with a recent proposal for an universal form of the asymptotics of work distributions in single-molecule experiments.

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline A Curtis

Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for

Defining the demands and meeting the challenges of integrated bird conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Charles K. Baxter

2005-01-01

Understanding the demands of integration bird conservation begins with a critical assessment of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative's (NABCI) goal."Regionally-based, biologically-driven, landscape oriented partnerships delivering the full spectrum of bird conservation across the entirety of North America."

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

Science.gov (United States)

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan P Lemoine

Full Text Available Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp. host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size.

Science.gov (United States)

Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Ribic, Christine A; McCauley, Lisa A

2018-02-06

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation. �

Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

Science.gov (United States)

Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

2017-01-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Distribution of aquatic birds in oxidation lagoons of La Paz city in South Baja California, Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Zamora-Orozco, Elvia Margarita; Carmona, Roberto; Brabata, Georgina

2007-06-01

Taxonomic composition, spatial and temporal distribution of aquatic birds in oxidation lagoons (LO) of La Paz city in south Baja California, Mexico, were determined during 24 censuses realized in two-week intervals (April/98-March/99). There are five lagoons of5 Ha each and 17 ha of terrains constantly flooded that serve as feeding areas for cattle and birds. One hundred twenty three species were observed, 75 of which were aquatic birds. A total of 46 041 observations were made (average 1 918 birds/census). Richness and abundance of aquatic birds were influenced mainly by migration of anatids and sandpipers. The first group had the greatest abundance due to its affinity towards fresh water bodies. The terrains were the favorite sites of dabbling ducks (Anas) and sandpipers. In contrast, two of the most abundant species (Oxyura jamaicensis, 12.5% of all species, and Fulica americana, 8.8 %) restricted their presence to the oxidation lagoons. LO presented a bird structure of its own and atypical, according to the dryness of the region.

Climate matching drives spread rate but not establishment success in recent unintentional bird introductions.

Science.gov (United States)

Abellán, Pedro; Tella, José L; Carrete, Martina; Cardador, Laura; Anadón, José D

2017-08-29

Understanding factors driving successful invasions is one of the cornerstones of invasion biology. Bird invasions have been frequently used as study models, and the foundation of current knowledge largely relies on species purposefully introduced during the 19th and early 20th centuries in countries colonized by Europeans. However, the profile of exotic bird species has changed radically in the last decades, as birds are now mostly introduced into the invasion process through unplanned releases from the worldwide pet and avicultural trade. Here we assessed the role of the three main drivers of invasion success (i.e., event-, species-, and location-level factors) on the establishment and spatial spread of exotic birds using an unprecedented dataset recorded throughout the last 100 y in the Iberian Peninsula. Our multimodel inference phylogenetic approach showed that the barriers that need to be overcome by a species to successfully establish or spread are not the same. Whereas establishment is largely related to event-level factors, apparently stochastic features of the introduction (time since first introduction and propagule pressure) and to the origin of introduced species (wild-caught species show higher invasiveness than captive-bred ones), the spread across the invaded region seems to be determined by the extent to which climatic conditions in the new region resemble those of the species' native range. Overall, these results contrast with what we learned from successful deliberate introductions and highlight that different management interventions should apply at different invasion stages, the most efficient strategies being related to event-level factors.

From Theory to Practice: How Mass Audubon Is Incorporating Strategic Framing about Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Fleischer, Amy

2013-01-01

Mass Audubon recognized that climate change was significantly impacting bird species distribution and seasonality. Unsure of how and when to engage visitors to their network of wildlife sanctuaries on the topic of climate change, its educators turned to the National Network of Ocean and Climate Change Interpreters' Study Circle (NNOCCI). Through…

Collision risks at sea: species composition and altitude distributions of birds in Danish offshore wind farms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blew, J.; Hoffmann, M.; Nehls, G. [BioConsult SH (Germany)

2007-07-01

This study investigates the collision risks of birds in operating offshore wind farms, focussing on all bird species present in the direct vicinity of the wind farms, their altitude distribution and reactions. The project was conducted jointly by BioConsult SH and the University of Hamburg in the two Danish offshore wind farms Horns Rev (North Sea) and Nysted (Baltic Sea) in the framework of a Danish-German cooperation and financed by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). Data were collected between March 2005 and November 2006, using a ship anchored at the edge of the offshore wind farms. In this way, bird species of all sizes could be considered. Daytime observations yielded data on species composition, flight routes and potential reactions of the birds. Radar observations provided altitude distributions inside and outside the wind farm area and also reactions. The results shall help to further describe and assess the collision risk of different species groups. Since data analysis is still running, exemplary results will be presented here. 114 species have been recorded in Nysted and 99 in Horns Rev, approximately 65% of which have been observed inside the wind farm areas. Migrating birds seem to avoid flying into the wind farms, whereas individuals present in the areas for extended time periods utilize areas within the wind farms. While a barrier effect exists for species on migration, resident species probably have a higher collision risk. Raptors migrating during daylight frequently enter the wind farm area on their flight routes, correcting their flight paths in order to avoid collisions. Radar results show that during times of intensive migration, the proportion of birds flying at high altitudes and thus above windmill height is higher than in times of low migration intensity. Consequently, there is a lower proportion of migrating birds flying within the risk area. Data will be further analysed to

Regionalizing land use impacts on farmland birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Glemnitz, Michael; Zander, Peter; Stachow, Ulrich

2015-06-01

The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds.

Theropod Fauna from Southern Australia Indicates High Polar Diversity and Climate-Driven Dinosaur Provinciality

Science.gov (United States)

Benson, Roger B. J.; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

2012-01-01

The Early Cretaceous fauna of Victoria, Australia, provides unique data on the composition of high latitude southern hemisphere dinosaurs. We describe and review theropod dinosaur postcranial remains from the Aptian–Albian Otway and Strzelecki groups, based on at least 37 isolated bones, and more than 90 teeth from the Flat Rocks locality. Several specimens of medium- and large-bodied individuals (estimated up to ∼8.5 metres long) represent allosauroids. Tyrannosauroids are represented by elements indicating medium body sizes (∼3 metres long), likely including the holotype femur of Timimus hermani, and a single cervical vertebra represents a juvenile spinosaurid. Single specimens representing medium- and small-bodied theropods may be referrable to Ceratosauria, Ornithomimosauria, a basal coelurosaur, and at least three taxa within Maniraptora. Thus, nine theropod taxa may have been present. Alternatively, four distinct dorsal vertebrae indicate a minimum of four taxa. However, because most taxa are known from single bones, it is likely that small-bodied theropod diversity remains underestimated. The high abundance of allosauroids and basal coelurosaurs (including tyrannosauroids and possibly ornithomimosaurs), and the relative rarity of ceratosaurs, is strikingly dissimilar to penecontemporaneous dinosaur faunas of Africa and South America, which represent an arid, lower-latitude biome. Similarities between dinosaur faunas of Victoria and the northern continents concern the proportional representatation of higher clades, and may result from the prevailing temperate–polar climate of Australia, especially at high latitudes in Victoria, which is similar to the predominant warm–temperate climate of Laurasia, but distinct from the arid climate zone that covered extensive areas of Gondwana. Most dinosaur groups probably attained a near-cosmopolitan distribution in the Jurassic, prior to fragmentation of the Pangaean supercontinent, and some aspects of the

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley

Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pulido, F.; Berthold, P.

2010-01-01

Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution, abundance, and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds, but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Bird communities of the arctic shrub tundra of Yamal: habitat specialists and generalists.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasiliy Sokolov

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The ratio of habitat generalists to specialists in birds has been suggested as a good indicator of ecosystem changes due to e.g. climate change and other anthropogenic perturbations. Most studies focusing on this functional component of biodiversity originate, however, from temperate regions. The Eurasian Arctic tundra is currently experiencing an unprecedented combination of climate change, change in grazing pressure by domestic reindeer and growing human activity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we monitored bird communities in a tundra landscape harbouring shrub and open habitats in order to analyse bird habitat relationships and quantify habitat specialization. We used ordination methods to analyse habitat associations and estimated the proportions of specialists in each of the main habitats. Correspondence Analysis identified three main bird communities, inhabiting upland, lowland and dense willow shrubs. We documented a stable structure of communities despite large multiannual variations of bird density (from 90 to 175 pairs/km(2. Willow shrub thickets were a hotspot for bird density, but not for species richness. The thickets hosted many specialized species whose main distribution area was south of the tundra. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: If current arctic changes result in a shrubification of the landscape as many studies suggested, we would expect an increase in the overall bird abundance together with an increase of local specialists, since they are associated with willow thickets. The majority of these species have a southern origin and their increase in abundance would represent a strengthening of the boreal component in the southern tundra, perhaps at the expense of species typical of the subarctic zone, which appear to be generalists within this zone.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Casajus

Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

A distribution-oriented approach to support landscape connectivity for ecologically distinct bird species.

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, José M; Alagador, Diogo; Salgueiro, Pedro; Mira, António

2018-01-01

Managing landscape connectivity is a widely recognized overarching strategy for conserving biodiversity in human-impacted landscapes. However, planning the conservation and management of landscape connectivity of multiple and ecologically distinct species is still challenging. Here we provide a spatially-explicit framework which identifies and prioritizes connectivity conservation and restoration actions for species with distinct habitat affinities. Specifically, our study system comprised three groups of common bird species, forest-specialists, farmland-specialists, and generalists, populating a highly heterogeneous agricultural countryside in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. We first performed a comprehensive analysis of the environmental variables underlying the distributional patterns of each bird species to reveal generalities in their guild-specific responses to landscape structure. Then, we identified sites which could be considered pivotal in maintaining current levels of landscape connectivity for the three bird guilds simultaneously, as well as the number and location of sites that need to be restored to maximize connectivity levels. Interestingly, we found that a small number of sites defined the shortest connectivity paths for the three bird guilds simultaneously, and were therefore considered key for conservation. Moreover, an even smaller number of sites were identified as critical to expand the landscape connectivity at maximum for the regional bird assemblage as a whole. Our spatially-explicit framework can provide valuable decision-making support to conservation practitioners aiming to identify key connectivity and restoration sites, a particularly urgent task in rapidly changing landscapes such as agroecosystems.

Distributional impacts of climate change mitigation in Indian electricity: The influence of governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, Narasimha D.

2013-01-01

Studies that examine the distributional impacts of climate change mitigation policies often neglect the influence of institutions that implement these policies. This study examines the short-term consumption-side distributional impacts of expanding low-carbon electric supply in the state of Maharashtra, India with a focus on the influence of regulatory discretion in pricing. Households' welfare impacts from economy-wide electricity price shocks are simulated against a baseline that is calibrated to actual household economic and electricity service conditions, including actual electricity budgets, block tier prices and supply rationing. Industrial price impacts are propagated to households using a Leontief input–output analysis. Regulatory pricing decisions are evaluated based on social welfare metrics for economic efficiency and income inequality. The analysis reveals new linkages between climate change mitigation, electricity policy and income distribution. Low-income households can be shielded from mitigation impacts without losses in aggregate welfare to the extent that regulators can recover mitigation costs through industrial price increases. Regulators' flexibility to distribute costs across households is constrained by industrial customers' migration off the grid. Reduced supply interruptions to the rural poor from the resulting demand contraction are a potential co-benefit of mitigation. Distributional impacts, therefore, depend on other electricity policies that are driven by the political economy of the sector. - Highlights: • Indirect price increases harm most households less than residential price increases. • Regulators have flexibility to distribute mitigation costs across income groups. • Reduced supply interruptions are a potential co-benefit of mitigation

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David D Gustine

Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Data-driven importance distributions for articulated tracking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hauberg, Søren; Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup

2011-01-01

We present two data-driven importance distributions for particle filterbased articulated tracking; one based on background subtraction, another on depth information. In order to keep the algorithms efficient, we represent human poses in terms of spatial joint positions. To ensure constant bone le...... filter, where they improve both accuracy and efficiency of the tracker. In fact, they triple the effective number of samples compared to the most commonly used importance distribution at little extra computational cost....

Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John G. Blake

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation; declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were ∼40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were ∼50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Niña events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate.

Distribution of marine birds on the mid- and North-Atlantic US outer continental shelf. Technical progress report, January 1978-July 1980

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Powers, K.D.; Pittman, G.L.; Fitch, S.J.

1980-09-01

The species composition, distribution, and abundance of marine birds on continental shelf waters from Cape Hatteras to the Bay of Fundy were examined using ships-of-opportunity. Northern Fulmar, Cory's Shearwater, Greater Shearwater, Sooty Shearwater, Wilson's Storm-Petrel, Gannet, Red Phalarope, Great Black-backed Gull, Herring Gull, and Black-legged Kittiwake were the most abundant and common species. These species were ecologically dominant within the bird community in numbers and biomass. Georges Bank and Gulf of Marine regions generally had greatest estimates of standing stock and biomass; whereas, in the Middle Atlantic region these estimates were consistently lowest. Species diversity throughout the study area was greatest in spring and least in fall. Oceanic fronts at the continental shelf break and at Nantucket Shoals influenced the distribution of Wilson's Storm-Petrels and Red Phalaropes. Fishing activities were particularly important to Larus gull distribution. Fishes, squids, and crustaceans were the most important groups of prey items in diets of nine bird species. An oiled bird or pollution index was developed. According to the index, frequency of oiled birds was greatest in winter and spring, and gulls made up the majority of species with oiled plumages.

The role of climate and environmental variables in structuring bird assemblages in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves

Full Text Available Understanding the processes that influence species diversity is still a challenge in ecological studies. However, there are two main theories to discuss this topic, the niche theory and the neutral theory. Our objective was to understand the importance of environmental and spatial processes in structuring bird communities within the hydrological seasons in dry forest areas in northeastern Brazil. The study was conducted in two National Parks, the Serra da Capivara and Serra das Confusões National Parks, where 36 areas were sampled in different seasons (dry, dry/rainy transition, rainy, rainy/dry transition, in 2012 and 2013. We found with our results that bird species richness is higher in the rainy season and lower during the dry season, indicating a strong influence of seasonality, a pattern also found for environmental heterogeneity. Richness was explained by local environmental factors, while species composition was explained by environmental and spatial factors. The environmental factors were more important in explaining variations in composition. Climate change predictions have currently pointed out frequent drought events and a rise in global temperature by 2050, which would lead to changes in species behavior and to increasing desertification in some regions, including the Caatinga. In addition, the high deforestation rates and the low level of representativeness of the Caatinga in the conservation units negatively affects bird communities. This scenario has demonstrated how climatic factors affect individuals, and, therefore, should be the starting point for conservation initiatives to be developed in xeric environments.

The role of climate and environmental variables in structuring bird assemblages in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs).

Science.gov (United States)

Gonçalves, Gabriela Silva Ribeiro; Cerqueira, Pablo Vieira; Brasil, Leandro Schlemmer; Santos, Marcos Pérsio Dantas

2017-01-01

Understanding the processes that influence species diversity is still a challenge in ecological studies. However, there are two main theories to discuss this topic, the niche theory and the neutral theory. Our objective was to understand the importance of environmental and spatial processes in structuring bird communities within the hydrological seasons in dry forest areas in northeastern Brazil. The study was conducted in two National Parks, the Serra da Capivara and Serra das Confusões National Parks, where 36 areas were sampled in different seasons (dry, dry/rainy transition, rainy, rainy/dry transition), in 2012 and 2013. We found with our results that bird species richness is higher in the rainy season and lower during the dry season, indicating a strong influence of seasonality, a pattern also found for environmental heterogeneity. Richness was explained by local environmental factors, while species composition was explained by environmental and spatial factors. The environmental factors were more important in explaining variations in composition. Climate change predictions have currently pointed out frequent drought events and a rise in global temperature by 2050, which would lead to changes in species behavior and to increasing desertification in some regions, including the Caatinga. In addition, the high deforestation rates and the low level of representativeness of the Caatinga in the conservation units negatively affects bird communities. This scenario has demonstrated how climatic factors affect individuals, and, therefore, should be the starting point for conservation initiatives to be developed in xeric environments.

[Hemoparasites in wild birds in Madagascar].

Science.gov (United States)

Raharimanga, V; Soula, F; Raherilalao, M J; Goodman, S M; Sadonès, H; Tall, A; Randrianarivelojosia, M; Raharimalala, L; Duchemin, J B; Ariey, F; Robert, V

2002-01-01

This study aims to evaluate the prevalence and density of haemoparasites in native Malagasy birds. Among the 387 birds, belonging to 43 species sampled at six localities in different bio-climatic zones of the island, 139 (35.9%) showed at least 1 hemoparasite with, by order of frequency, Plasmodium and/or Haemoproteus (19.9%), microfilariae (13.7% of 387 birds), Leucocytozoon (11.1%) and Trypanosoma (1.0%). An analysis to further elucidate these observations took into account the interaction of different environmental variables (altitude, season, site of collection) or aspects of the birds (age, weight, sex). There is evidence that some parasites preferentially infect some bird species or families. The largest male birds harboured the highest prevalences and densities of haemoparasite, regardless of species. These findings extend knowledge of bird/blood parasite relationships of Malagasy birds and provide interesting insights, especially concerning the pathogenicity of this type of parasitism and the parasite transmission by insect vectors.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

2010-06-15

We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

Specialized motor-driven dusp1 expression in the song systems of multiple lineages of vocal learning birds.

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Haruhito Horita

Full Text Available Mechanisms for the evolution of convergent behavioral traits are largely unknown. Vocal learning is one such trait that evolved multiple times and is necessary in humans for the acquisition of spoken language. Among birds, vocal learning is evolved in songbirds, parrots, and hummingbirds. Each time similar forebrain song nuclei specialized for vocal learning and production have evolved. This finding led to the hypothesis that the behavioral and neuroanatomical convergences for vocal learning could be associated with molecular convergence. We previously found that the neural activity-induced gene dual specificity phosphatase 1 (dusp1 was up-regulated in non-vocal circuits, specifically in sensory-input neurons of the thalamus and telencephalon; however, dusp1 was not up-regulated in higher order sensory neurons or motor circuits. Here we show that song motor nuclei are an exception to this pattern. The song nuclei of species from all known vocal learning avian lineages showed motor-driven up-regulation of dusp1 expression induced by singing. There was no detectable motor-driven dusp1 expression throughout the rest of the forebrain after non-vocal motor performance. This pattern contrasts with expression of the commonly studied activity-induced gene egr1, which shows motor-driven expression in song nuclei induced by singing, but also motor-driven expression in adjacent brain regions after non-vocal motor behaviors. In the vocal non-learning avian species, we found no detectable vocalizing-driven dusp1 expression in the forebrain. These findings suggest that independent evolutions of neural systems for vocal learning were accompanied by selection for specialized motor-driven expression of the dusp1 gene in those circuits. This specialized expression of dusp1 could potentially lead to differential regulation of dusp1-modulated molecular cascades in vocal learning circuits.

[Geographic distribution of birds in the Sierra Madre Oriental of San Luis Potosi, Mexico: a regional analysis of conservation status].

Science.gov (United States)

Sahagún Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Navarro, Jaime Castro; Reyes Hernández, Humberto

2013-06-01

The Sierra Madre Oriental region in the mexican state of San Luis Potosi is a relevant place for bird conservation at a country level. Therefore the main goal of this study was to analyze the geographic patterns of distribution and the conservation current state of the birds, to support the needs to expand the conservation areas in the future. Data was collected from various databases of zoological museums and collections, and field sampling methods conducted from January 2009 to May 2011. Potential distributions were modeled for 284 species using GARP software and then a map was developed to determine areas with favorable environmental characteristics for the distribution of species richness. Finally, the importance of conservation areas for the potential distribution of birds in the region was evaluated. A total of 359 species were recorded of which 71.4% are permanent residents, 19% are winter migrants and 4% are summer residents. From this total, 41 species were endemic, 47 were species at risk and 149 were neotropical migrants. The largest species richness correspond to oak forests, cloud forests, and tropical moist forests located at altitudes from 100m to 1 500m. Their potential distribution was concentrated towards the center and Southeast of the study area. Only 10% of areas with a high potential conservation was included in areas of priority for bird conservation (AICA) and just 3% of all potential areas were under some governmental category of protection. However, no conservation area has a management plan currently applied and monitored. The information generated is important for the development of management proposals for birds conservation in the region.

Transport of Ixodid ticks and tick-borne pathogens by migratory birds.

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Gunnar eHasle

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Birds, particularly passerines, can be parasitized by Ixodid ticks, which may be infected with tick-borne pathogens, like Borrelia spp., Babesia spp., Anaplasma, Rickettsia/Coxiella, and tick-borne encephalitis virus. The prevalence of ticks on birds varies over years, season, locality and different bird species. The prevalence of ticks on different species depends mainly on the degree of feeding on the ground. In Europe, the Turdus spp., especially the blackbird, Turdus merula, appears to be most important for harboring ticks. Birds can easily cross barriers, like fences, mountains, glaciers, desserts and oceans, which would stop mammals, and they can move much faster than the wingless hosts. Birds can potentially transport tick-borne pathogens by transporting infected ticks, by being infected with tick-borne pathogens and transmit the pathogens to the ticks, and possibly act as hosts for transfer of pathogens between ticks through co-feeding. Knowledge of the bird migration routes and of the spatial distribution of tick species and tick-borne pathogens is crucial for understanding the possible impact of birds as spreaders of ticks and tick-borne pathogens. Successful colonization of new tick species or introduction of new tick-borne pathogens will depend on suitable climate, vegetation and hosts. Although it has never been demonstrated that a new tick species, or a new tick pathogen, actually has been established in a new locality after being seeded there by birds, evidence strongly suggests that this could occur.

Climatic and hydrologic influences on wading bird foraging patterns in Everglades National Park

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Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.

2008-05-01

The ability to map the relationship between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park is a key building block for the restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve habitat for wading bird species and to promote nesting. This paper reports on a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the Park We demonstrate that seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recording site are a) well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the Park, and b) are effective as predictors of Great Egret and White Ibis foraging numbers at the end of the nesting season when using a nonlinear Bayesian Hierarchical model that permits the estimation of a conditional distribution of bird populations given the seasonal statistics of stage at the index location. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty are both assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the recession rate, and the numbers of reversals in the recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the seasonal production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of wading bird foraging numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal and multi-decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

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Matto Mildenberger

Full Text Available While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Mildenberger, Matto; Howe, Peter; Lachapelle, Erick; Stokes, Leah; Marlon, Jennifer; Gravelle, Timothy

2016-01-01

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

Saving our shared birds: Partners in Flight tri-national vision for landbird conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Berlanga, Humberto; Kennedy, Judith A.; Rich, Terrell D.; Arizmendi, Maria del Coro; Beardmore, Carol J.; Blancher, Peter J.; Butcher, Gregory S.; Couturier, Andrew R.; Dayer, Ashley A.; Demarest, Dean W.; Easton, Wendy E.; Gustafson, Mary; Iñigo-Elias, Eduardo E.; Krebs, Elizabeth A.; Panjabi, Arvind O.; Rodriguez Contreras, Vicente; Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Ruth, Janet M.; Santana Castellon, Eduardo; Vidal, Rosa Ma.; Will, Tom

2010-01-01

Landbirds are the most abundant and diverse group of birds in North America, with nearly 900 species distributed across every major terrestrial habitat. Birds are indicators of environmental health; their populations track changes in habitat, water, disease, and climate. They are providers of invaluable ecosystem services, such as pest control, seed dispersal, and pollination. As the focus of bird watching, they help generate billions of dollars for national economies. Yet, we are in danger of losing this spectacular and irreplaceable bird diversity: landbirds are experiencing significant declines, ominous threats, and shrinking habitats across a continent with growing human populations, increasing resource consumption, and changing climate. Saving Our Shared Birds presents for the first time a comprehensive conservation assessment of landbirds in Canada, Mexico, and the continental United States. This new tri-national vision encompasses the complete range of many migratory species and highlights the vital links among migrants and highly threatened resident species in Mexico. It points to a set of continent-scale actions necessary to maintain the landbird diversity and abundance that are our shared responsibility. This collaborative effort of Partners in Flight (PIF) is the next step in linking the countries of the Western Hemisphere to help species at risk and keep common birds common through voluntary partnerships—our mission since 1990. Saving Our Shared Birds builds upon PIF’s 2004 North American Landbird Conservation Plan, which presented science-based priorities for the conservation of 448 landbird species in Canada and the United States. Our three nations have expressed their commitment to cooperative conservation through numerous international treaties, agreements, and programs, including formation of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) a decade ago. The NABCI partnership recognizes that effective conservation requires a concerted

Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

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Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

2014-09-01

Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds

Science.gov (United States)

Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. PMID:29467262

Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential

Climate Controls AM Fungal Distributions from Global to Local Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kivlin, S. N.; Hawkes, C.; Muscarella, R.; Treseder, K. K.; Kazenel, M.; Lynn, J.; Rudgers, J.

2016-12-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have key functions in terrestrial biogeochemical processes; thus, determining the relative importance of climate, edaphic factors, and plant community composition on their geographic distributions can improve predictions of their sensitivity to global change. Local adaptation by AM fungi to plant hosts, soil nutrients, and climate suggests that all of these factors may control fungal geographic distributions, but their relative importance is unknown. We created species distribution models for 142 AM fungal taxa at the global scale with data from GenBank. We compared climate variables (BioClim and soil moisture), edaphic variables (phosphorus, carbon, pH, and clay content), and plant variables using model selection on models with (1) all variables, (2) climatic variables only (including soil moisture) and (3) resource-related variables only (all other soil parameters and NPP) using the MaxEnt algorithm evaluated with ENMEval. We also evaluated whether drivers of AM fungal distributions were phylogenetically conserved. To test whether global correlates of AM fungal distributions were reflected at local scales, we then surveyed AM fungi in nine plant hosts along three elevation gradients in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, USA. At the global scale, the distributions of 55% of AM fungal taxa were affected by both climate and soil resources, whereas 16% were only affected by climate and 29% were only affected by soil resources. Even for AM fungi that were affected by both climate and resources, the effects of climatic variables nearly always outweighed those of resources. Soil moisture and isothermality were the main climatic and NPP and soil carbon the main resource related factors influencing AM fungal distributions. Distributions of closely related AM fungal taxa were similarly affected by climate, but not by resources. Local scale surveys of AM fungi across elevations confirmed that climate was a key driver of AM fungal

Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, James A.

2010-01-01

The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Christine; Stephens, Philip A; Tobias, Joseph A; Sheard, Catherine; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2018-02-28

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range potential and migratory refuelling requirements to simulate the number of stopovers required and the duration of current migratory journeys for 77 bird species breeding in Europe. Using tracking data, we show that our estimates accord with recorded journey times and stopovers for most species. We then combine projections of altered migratory distances under climate change with models of avian flight to predict future migratory journeys. We find that 37% of migratory journeys undertaken by long-distance migrants will necessitate an additional stopover in future. These greater distances and the increased number of stops will substantially increase overall journey durations of many long-distance migratory species, a factor not currently considered in climate impact studies. © 2018 The Authors.

Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Shengwu; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Li, Xianda; Ouyang, Yanlan

2016-09-01

The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qingfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met.

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Forkel

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1. SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1)

Science.gov (United States)

Forkel, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Lasslop, Gitta; Teubner, Irene; Chuvieco, Emilio; Thonicke, Kirsten

2017-12-01

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven

Bird distributional patterns support biogeographical histories and are associated with bioclimatic units in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, Cristiano DE Santana; Nascimento, Nayla Fábia Ferreira DO; Araujo, Helder F P DE

2017-10-17

Rivers as barriers to dispersal and past forest refugia are two of the hypotheses proposed to explain the patterns of biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest. It has recently been shown that possible past refugia correspond to bioclimatically different regions, so we tested whether patterns of shared distribution of bird taxa in the Atlantic Forest are 1) limited by the Doce and São Francisco rivers or 2) associated with the bioclimatically different southern and northeastern regions. We catalogued lists of forest birds from 45 locations, 36 in the Atlantic forest and nine in Amazon, and used parsimony analysis of endemicity to identify groups of shared taxa. We also compared differences between these groups by permutational multivariate analysis of variance and identified the species that best supported the resulting groups. The results showed that the distribution of forest birds is divided into two main regions in the Atlantic Forest, the first with more southern localities and the second with northeastern localities. This distributional pattern is not delimited by riverbanks, but it may be associated with bioclimatic units, surrogated by altitude, that maintain current environmental differences between two main regions on Atlantic Forest and may be related to phylogenetic histories of taxa supporting the two groups.

Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

2003-01-01

This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

Quasi-regular impurity distribution driven by charge-density wave

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldea, I.; Badescu, M.

1991-09-01

The displacive motion of the impurity distribution immersed into the one-dimensional system has recently been studied in detail as one kind of quasi-regularity driven by CDW. As a further investigation of this problem we develop here a microscopical model for a different kind of quasi-regular impurity distribution driven by CDW, consisting of the modulation in the probability of occupied sites. The dependence on impurity concentration and temperature of relevant CDW quantities is obtained. Data reported in the quasi-1D materials NbSe 3 and Ta 2 NiSe 7 (particularly, thermal hysteresis effects at CDW transition) are interpreted in the framework of the present model. Possible similarities to other physical systems are also suggested. (author). 38 refs, 7 figs

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frieda Beauregard

Full Text Available Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839 covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study

Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2016-12-01

Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon

Sensitivity of Distributions of Climate System Properties to Surface Temperature Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

2011-12-01

Predictions of climate change from models depend strongly on the representation of climate system properties emerging from the processes and feedbacks in the models. The quality of any model prediction can be evaluated by determining how well its output reproduces the observed climate system. With this evaluation, the reliability of climate projections derived from the model and provided for policy makers is assessed and quantified. In this study, surface temperature, upper-air temperature, and ocean heat content data are used to constrain the distributions of the parameters that define three climate system properties in the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake into the deep ocean, and net anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In particular, we explore the sensitivity of the distributions to the surface temperature dataset used to estimate the likelihood of model output given the observed climate records. In total, five different reconstructions of past surface temperatures are used and the resulting parameter distribution functions differ from each other. Differences in estimates of climate sensitivity mode and mean are as great as 1 K between the datasets, with an overall range of 1.2 to 5.3 K using the 5-95 confidence intervals. Ocean effective diffusivity is poorly constrained regardless of which dataset is used. All distributions show broad distributions and only three show signs of a distribution mode. When a mode is present, they tend to be for low diffusivity values. Distributions for the net aerosol forcing show similar shapes and cluster into two groups that are shifted by approximately 0.1 watts per square meter. However, the overall spread of forcing values from the 5-95 confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.83 watts per square meter, is small compared to other uncertainties in climate forcings. Transient climate response estimates derived from these distributions range between 0.87 and 2.41 K. Similar to the

Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

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Robin, V V; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2010-10-13

Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies. We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp) obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species. Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of this region.

Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V V Robin

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies.We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species.Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of

Biological consequences of global change for birds.

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Møller, Anders Pape

2013-06-01

Climate is currently changing at an unprecedented rate; so also human exploitation is rapidly changing the Earth for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and urbanization. In addition, pollution has affected even the most remote ecosystems, as has the omnipresence of humans, with consequences in particular for animals that keep a safe distance from potential predators, including human beings. Importantly, all of these changes are occurring simultaneously, with increasing intensity, and further deterioration in both the short and the long-term is predicted. While the consequences of these components of global change are relatively well studied on their own, the effects of their interactions, such as the combined effects of climate change and agriculture, or the combined effects of agriculture through nutrient leakage to freshwater and marine ecosystems and fisheries, and the effects of climate change and urbanization, are poorly understood. Here, I provide a brief overview of the effects of climate change on phenology, diversity, abundance, interspecific interactions and population dynamics of birds. I address whether these effects of changing temperatures are direct, or indirect through effects of climate change on the phenology, distribution or abundance of food, parasites and predators. Finally, I review interactions between different components of global change. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stainforth, David A; Chapman, Sandra C; Watkins, Nicholas W

2013-01-01

Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia. (letter)

Mapping global diversity patterns for migratory birds.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Somveille

Full Text Available Nearly one in five bird species has separate breeding and overwintering distributions, and the regular migrations of these species cause a substantial seasonal redistribution of avian diversity across the world. However, despite its ecological importance, bird migration has been largely ignored in studies of global avian biodiversity, with few studies having addressed it from a macroecological perspective. Here, we analyse a dataset on the global distribution of the world's birds in order to examine global spatial patterns in the diversity of migratory species, including: the seasonal variation in overall species diversity due to migration; the contribution of migratory birds to local bird diversity; and the distribution of narrow-range and threatened migratory birds. Our analyses reveal a striking asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, evident in all of the patterns investigated. The highest migratory bird diversity was found in the Northern Hemisphere, with high inter-continental turnover in species composition between breeding and non-breeding seasons, and extensive regions (at high latitudes where migratory birds constitute the majority of the local avifauna. Threatened migratory birds are concentrated mainly in Central and Southern Asia, whereas narrow-range migratory species are mainly found in Central America, the Himalayas and Patagonia. Overall, global patterns in the diversity of migratory birds indicate that bird migration is mainly a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. The asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres could not have easily been predicted from the combined results of regional scale studies, highlighting the importance of a global perspective.

Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant.

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Nourani, Elham; Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2017-05-17

Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts. © 2017 The Author(s).

Levels and distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in various tissues of birds of prey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voorspoels, Stefan; Covaci, Adrian; Lepom, Peter; Jaspers, Veerle L.B.; Schepens, Paul

2006-01-01

In the present study, concentrations and tissue distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs; IUPAC nos. 28, 47, 99, 100, 153, 154, 183, and 209) were examined in brain, adipose tissue, liver, muscle, and serum of birds of prey. Median ΣPBDE levels (BDE 28-183) in the tissues of sparrowhawks ranged from 360 to 1900 ng/g lipid weight (lw), which was in general one order of magnitude higher than in the tissues of common buzzards (26-130 ng/g lw). There were no differences in PBDE congener patterns between the various tissues within individuals of a certain species. Inter-species differences in PBDE patterns and in particular the percentage of BDE 99, 100 and 153 were, however, pronounced between sparrowhawk and common buzzard. BDE 209 was detected in nearly all serum and in some liver samples, but not in any other tissues. This observation suggests that exposure to BDE 209 is low or that this congener is poorly accumulated. Passive (lipid content related) diffusion could not completely describe the PBDE tissue distribution, e.g. the lowest PBDE-load was measured in brain, a fairly lipid rich tissue. - Distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in birds of prey is tissue dependent

Modeling of the spatial distribution of ten endangered bird species in jurisdiction of Corantioquia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez M, Ana Maria; Alvarez, Esteban

2006-01-01

Recently, thanks to advances made in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), techniques have been developed for the construction of models that predict the spatial distribution of species and other attributes of biodiversity. These methods have allowed for the development of objective criteria that are fundamental for making decisions regarding the creation of protected areas systems throughout the world. In this research, the spatial distribution of ten endangered species of birds found within the jurisdiction of CORANTIOQUIA (JDC from here on) was modelled, using GIS techniques. The JDC was divided into 177 squares of 15 x 10 Km and the following variables were quantified within each one: presence or absence of endangered species of birds, rainfall, temperature, sun brightness, relative humidity, day duration, altitude, vegetal cover, slope and primary net productivity. With the help of logistic regression were made predictive models. Based on logistic regressions techniques predictive models were made. These models allow to explain a percentage between 24% and 80% of spatial distribution variability of these species. Those results can help in the identification of valuable zones for the biodiversity conservation. In places where there are neither the time or the economic resources to carry out exhaustive analyses of biodiversity, the models can predict the probable presence of this endangered species

Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

Using regional bird density distribution models to evaluate protected area networks and inform conservation planning

Science.gov (United States)

John D. Alexander; Jaime L. Stephens; Sam Veloz; Leo Salas; Josée S. Rousseau; C. John Ralph; Daniel A. Sarr

2017-01-01

As data about populations of indicator species become available, proactive strategies that improve representation of biological diversity within protected area networks should consider finer-scaled evaluations, especially in regions identified as important through course-scale analyses. We use density distribution models derived from a robust regional bird...

Latitude, elevational climatic zonation and speciation in New World vertebrates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cadena, Carlos Daniel; Kozak, Kenneth H.; Gomez, Juan Pablo

2012-01-01

in tropical versus temperate areas. Here, we quantify overlap in the climatic distributions of 93 pairs of sister species of mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles restricted to either the New World tropics or to the Northern temperate zone. We show that elevational ranges of tropical- and temperate...

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2015-01-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant ( Pphenology that was driven by rising spring temperature ( P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly ( P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.

Ecological niche modeling as a new paradigm for large-scale investigations of diversity and distribution of birds

Science.gov (United States)

A. Townsend Peterson; Daniel A. Kluza

2005-01-01

Large-scale assessments of the distribution and diversity of birds have been challenged by the need for a robust methodology for summarizing or predicting species' geographic distributions (e.g. Beard et al. 1999, Manel et al. 1999, Saveraid et al. 2001). Methodologies used in such studies have at times been inappropriate, or even more frequently limited in their...

Spatial and temporal variation in marine birds in the north Gulf of Alaska: The value of marine bird monitoring within Gulf Watch Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Kuletz, Kathy J.; Esler, Daniel N.

2015-01-01

Birds offer useful insights into marine ecosystems. Marine birds are responsive to spatial and temporal variation in the environment, that often originates with fluctuations in oceanographic and climatic drivers and permeates up through food webs to conspicuous top predators such as seabirds (Coyle and Pinchuk 2005, Speckman et al. 2005, Gonzales-Solis et al. 2009, Cushing et al., this report). In that way, marine birds are excellent assimilators, samplers, and indicators of the status of marine environments (Montevecchi 1993, Piatt et al. 2007b, Zador et al. 2013). Marine bird responses to dynamic marine ecosystems can be detected in a variety of metrics, including abundance, distribution, and productivity. For example, in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA), decadal-scale variation in oceanographic conditions has been associated with dramatic shifts in prey composition and abundance (Anderson and Piatt 1999). In turn, these shifts were more closely correlated with changes in abundance of fish-eating birds of Prince William Sound (PWS), such as pigeon guillemots (Golet et al. 2002) and marbled and Kittlitz’s murrelets (Kuletz et al. 2011a, 2011b), than in the abundance of species that primarily consume plankton or benthic prey (Agler et al. 1999, Cushing et al., this report). Birds also are responsive to anthropogenic influences in marine environments, including commercial fishing, contamination, introduction of non-native species, coastal development, offshore resource extraction, and vessel traffic. A major anthropogenic perturbation in the northern GOA was the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, in which marine birds suffered high immediate mortality (Piatt and Ford 1996). Additionally, several species showed long-term evidence of declines in the oiled areas of PWS (Lance et al. 2001), as well as impacts to reproductive success years later (Golet et al. 2002). However, the degree of direct impact and vulnerability to chronic injury, which was related to exposure to

Is supplementary feeding in gardens a driver of evolutionary change in a migratory bird species?

Science.gov (United States)

Plummer, Kate E; Siriwardena, Gavin M; Conway, Greg J; Risely, Kate; Toms, Mike P

2015-12-01

Human activities are causing rapid environmental change at a global scale. Urbanization is responsible for some of the most extreme human-altered habitats and is a known driver of evolutionary change, but evidence and understanding of these processes is limited. Here, we investigate the potential underlying mechanisms contributing to the contemporary evolution of migration behaviour in the Eurasian blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla). Blackcaps from central Europe have been wintering in urban areas of Britain with increasing frequency over the past 60 years, rather than migrating south to the Mediterranean. It has been hypothesized that the popularization of providing supplementary foods for wild birds within Britain may have influenced this marked migratory change, but quantifying the selective forces shaping evolutionary changes remains challenging. Using a long-term national scale data set, we examine both the spatial distribution and interannual variation in blackcap wintering behaviour in Britain in relation to supplementary food availability and local climate. Over a 12-year period, we show that blackcaps are becoming increasingly associated with the provision of supplementary foods in British gardens, and that the reliability of bird food supplies is influencing their winter distribution at a national scale. In addition, local climatic temperatures and broader scale weather variation are also important determinants of blackcap wintering patterns once they arrive in Britain. Based on our findings, we conclude that a synergistic effect of increased availability of feeding resources, in the form of garden bird food, coupled with climatic amelioration, has enabled a successful new wintering population to become established in Britain. As global biodiversity is threatened by human-induced environmental change, this study presents new and timely evidence of the role human activities can play in shaping evolutionary trajectories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William B Monahan

Full Text Available The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus. Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004 further shows that: (i existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced

Preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenningsen, Lea Skræp; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of people living in the future in three geographical regions. The experiment is implemented on a representative sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model...... expresses some form of distributional preferences, but shows positive preferences for costs, suggesting that responses could be influenced by strategic behaviour and over-signalling of commitment. Our results provide support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate...

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

Science.gov (United States)

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate, non-climatic environmental factors, and spatial constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgaard, Anne Blach; Svenning, J.-C.; Dransfield, John

2010-01-01

-climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions......, water-related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non-environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability...

Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

2015-01-01

The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata, white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii, Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra, black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus, and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi. The endangered Mariana crow (x̄  =  81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI  =  815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba, rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae, and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca. Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low

Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rahbek, Carsten; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Colwell, Robert K

2007-01-01

the extraordinary diversity of avian species in the montane tropics, the most species-rich region on Earth. Our findings imply that correlative climatic models substantially underestimate the importance of historical factors and small-scale niche-driven assembly processes in shaping contemporary species-richness......The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients....... Here, we employ a fundamentally different approach that uses spatially explicit Monte Carlo models of the placement of cohesive geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous landscape. These models predict species richness of endemic South American birds (2248 species) measured...

ClimateSpark: An In-memory Distributed Computing Framework for Big Climate Data Analytics

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, F.; Yang, C. P.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Li, Z.

2016-12-01

Massive array-based climate data is being generated from global surveillance systems and model simulations. They are widely used to analyze the environment problems, such as climate changes, natural hazards, and public health. However, knowing the underlying information from these big climate datasets is challenging due to both data- and computing- intensive issues in data processing and analyzing. To tackle the challenges, this paper proposes ClimateSpark, an in-memory distributed computing framework to support big climate data processing. In ClimateSpark, the spatiotemporal index is developed to enable Apache Spark to treat the array-based climate data (e.g. netCDF4, HDF4) as native formats, which are stored in Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) without any preprocessing. Based on the index, the spatiotemporal query services are provided to retrieve dataset according to a defined geospatial and temporal bounding box. The data subsets will be read out, and a data partition strategy will be applied to equally split the queried data to each computing node, and store them in memory as climateRDDs for processing. By leveraging Spark SQL and User Defined Function (UDFs), the climate data analysis operations can be conducted by the intuitive SQL language. ClimateSpark is evaluated by two use cases using the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. One use case is to conduct the spatiotemporal query and visualize the subset results in animation; the other one is to compare different climate model outputs using Taylor-diagram service. Experimental results show that ClimateSpark can significantly accelerate data query and processing, and enable the complex analysis services served in the SQL-style fashion.

Analysis of the Effect of Interior Nudging on Temperature and Precipitation Distributions of Multi-year Regional Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T. L.; Bowden, J. H.; Otte, M. J.

2010-12-01

There is disagreement in the regional climate modeling community as to the appropriateness of the use of internal nudging. Some investigators argue that the regional model should be minimally constrained and allowed to respond to regional-scale forcing, while others have noted that in the absence of interior nudging, significant large-scale discrepancies develop between the regional model solution and the driving coarse-scale fields. These discrepancies lead to reduced confidence in the ability of regional climate models to dynamically downscale global climate model simulations under climate change scenarios, and detract from the usability of the regional simulations for impact assessments. The advantages and limitations of interior nudging schemes for regional climate modeling are investigated in this study. Multi-year simulations using the WRF model driven by reanalysis data over the continental United States at 36km resolution are conducted using spectral nudging, grid point nudging, and for a base case without interior nudging. The means, distributions, and inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation will be evaluated in comparison to regional analyses.

Bird communities and environmental correlates in southern Oregon and northern California, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Jaime L. Stephens; Eric C. Dinger; John D. Alexander; Sean R. Mohren; C. John Ralph; Daniel A. Sarr

2016-01-01

We examined avian community ecology in the Klamath Ecoregion and determined that individual bird species co-exist spatially to form 29 statistically distinguishable bird groups. We identified climate, geography, and vegetation metrics that are correlated with these 29 bird groups at three scales: Klamath Ecoregion, vegetation formation (agriculture, conifer, mixed...

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neil Paprocki

Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

Metabolic heat production and thermal conductance are mass-independent adaptations to thermal environment in birds and mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Fristoe, Trevor S; Burger, Joseph R; Balk, Meghan A; Khaliq, Imran; Hof, Christian; Brown, James H

2015-12-29

The extent to which different kinds of organisms have adapted to environmental temperature regimes is central to understanding how they respond to climate change. The Scholander-Irving (S-I) model of heat transfer lays the foundation for explaining how endothermic birds and mammals maintain their high, relatively constant body temperatures in the face of wide variation in environmental temperature. The S-I model shows how body temperature is regulated by balancing the rates of heat production and heat loss. Both rates scale with body size, suggesting that larger animals should be better adapted to cold environments than smaller animals, and vice versa. However, the global distributions of ∼9,000 species of terrestrial birds and mammals show that the entire range of body sizes occurs in nearly all climatic regimes. Using physiological and environmental temperature data for 211 bird and 178 mammal species, we test for mass-independent adaptive changes in two key parameters of the S-I model: basal metabolic rate (BMR) and thermal conductance. We derive an axis of thermal adaptation that is independent of body size, extends the S-I model, and highlights interactions among physiological and morphological traits that allow endotherms to persist in a wide range of temperatures. Our macrophysiological and macroecological analyses support our predictions that shifts in BMR and thermal conductance confer important adaptations to environmental temperature in both birds and mammals.

Seed-dispersal distributions by trumpeter hornbills in fragmented landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Lenz, Johanna; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Caprano, Tanja; Friedrichs, Wolfgang; Gaese, Bernhard H.; Wikelski, Martin; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

2011-01-01

Frugivorous birds provide important ecosystem services by transporting seeds of fleshy fruited plants. It has been assumed that seed-dispersal kernels generated by these animals are generally leptokurtic, resulting in little dispersal among habitat fragments. However, little is known about the seed-dispersal distribution generated by large frugivorous birds in fragmented landscapes. We investigated movement and seed-dispersal patterns of trumpeter hornbills (Bycanistes bucinator) in a fragmented landscape in South Africa. Novel GPS loggers provide high-quality location data without bias against recording long-distance movements. We found a very weakly bimodal seed-dispersal distribution with potential dispersal distances up to 14.5 km. Within forest, the seed-dispersal distribution was unimodal with an expected dispersal distance of 86 m. In the fragmented agricultural landscape, the distribution was strongly bimodal with peaks at 18 and 512 m. Our results demonstrate that seed-dispersal distributions differed when birds moved in different habitat types. Seed-dispersal distances in fragmented landscapes show that transport among habitat patches is more frequent than previously assumed, allowing plants to disperse among habitat patches and to track the changing climatic conditions. PMID:21177686

Overseas seed dispersal by migratory birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Viana, Duarte S; Gangoso, Laura; Bouten, Willem; Figuerola, Jordi

2016-01-13

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) promotes the colonization of isolated and remote habitats, and thus it has been proposed as a mechanism for explaining the distributions of many species. Birds are key LDD vectors for many sessile organisms such as plants, yet LDD beyond local and regional scales has never been directly observed nor quantified. By sampling birds caught while in migratory flight by GPS-tracked wild falcons, we show that migratory birds transport seeds over hundreds of kilometres and mediate dispersal from mainland to oceanic islands. Up to 1.2% of birds that reached a small island of the Canary Archipelago (Alegranza) during their migration from Europe to Sub-Saharan Africa carried seeds in their guts. The billions of birds making seasonal migrations each year may then transport millions of seeds. None of the plant species transported by the birds occurs in Alegranza and most do not occur on nearby Canary Islands, providing a direct example of the importance of environmental filters in hampering successful colonization by immigrant species. The constant propagule pressure generated by these LDD events might, nevertheless, explain the colonization of some islands. Hence, migratory birds can mediate rapid range expansion or shifts of many plant taxa and determine their distribution. © 2016 The Author(s).

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

Preferred habitat of breeding birds may be compromised by climate change: unexpected effects of an exceptionally cold, wet spring.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J Whitehouse

Full Text Available Previous studies of the consequences for breeding birds of climate change have explored how their populations may respond to increasing temperatures. However, few have considered the likely outcome of predicted extreme conditions and the relative vulnerability of populations in different habitats. Here, we compare phenology and breeding success in great tits and blue tits over a 10 year period, including the extremely harsh conditions during spring 2012, at three sites in eastern England--mixed deciduous woodland, riparian and urban habitat. Production, measured as brood biomass, was significantly lower in 2012 compared with the previous 9 years, with the decrease in productivity relatively greatest in woodland habitat. Production was related to hatch delay, i.e. birds not initiating incubation immediately after clutch completion, which was more common in 2012 than in previous years. The best predictor of hatch delay was daytime temperature (not nighttime minimum temperature and rainfall, which convincingly reflected low growth and activity of caterpillar prey. We found that birds breeding in riparian and urban habitats were less vulnerable to the extremes of weather than those breeding in mixed deciduous woodland.

Identifying Priority Areas for Conservation: A Global Assessment for Forest-Dependent Birds

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, Graeme M.; Donald, Paul F.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.

2011-01-01

Limited resources are available to address the world's growing environmental problems, requiring conservationists to identify priority sites for action. Using new distribution maps for all of the world's forest-dependent birds (60.6% of all bird species), we quantify the contribution of remaining forest to conserving global avian biodiversity. For each of the world's partly or wholly forested 5-km cells, we estimated an impact score of its contribution to the distribution of all the forest bird species estimated to occur within it, and so is proportional to the impact on the conservation status of the world's forest-dependent birds were the forest it contains lost. The distribution of scores was highly skewed, a very small proportion of cells having scores several orders of magnitude above the global mean. Ecoregions containing the highest values of this score included relatively species-poor islands such as Hawaii and Palau, the relatively species-rich islands of Indonesia and the Philippines, and the megadiverse Atlantic Forests and northern Andes of South America. Ecoregions with high impact scores and high deforestation rates (2000–2005) included montane forests in Cameroon and the Eastern Arc of Tanzania, although deforestation data were not available for all ecoregions. Ecoregions with high impact scores, high rates of recent deforestation and low coverage by the protected area network included Indonesia's Seram rain forests and the moist forests of Trinidad and Tobago. Key sites in these ecoregions represent some of the most urgent priorities for expansion of the global protected areas network to meet Convention on Biological Diversity targets to increase the proportion of land formally protected to 17% by 2020. Areas with high impact scores, rapid deforestation, low protection and high carbon storage values may represent significant opportunities for both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, for example through Reducing Emissions from

Identifying priority areas for conservation: a global assessment for forest-dependent birds.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Graeme M Buchanan

Full Text Available Limited resources are available to address the world's growing environmental problems, requiring conservationists to identify priority sites for action. Using new distribution maps for all of the world's forest-dependent birds (60.6% of all bird species, we quantify the contribution of remaining forest to conserving global avian biodiversity. For each of the world's partly or wholly forested 5-km cells, we estimated an impact score of its contribution to the distribution of all the forest bird species estimated to occur within it, and so is proportional to the impact on the conservation status of the world's forest-dependent birds were the forest it contains lost. The distribution of scores was highly skewed, a very small proportion of cells having scores several orders of magnitude above the global mean. Ecoregions containing the highest values of this score included relatively species-poor islands such as Hawaii and Palau, the relatively species-rich islands of Indonesia and the Philippines, and the megadiverse Atlantic Forests and northern Andes of South America. Ecoregions with high impact scores and high deforestation rates (2000-2005 included montane forests in Cameroon and the Eastern Arc of Tanzania, although deforestation data were not available for all ecoregions. Ecoregions with high impact scores, high rates of recent deforestation and low coverage by the protected area network included Indonesia's Seram rain forests and the moist forests of Trinidad and Tobago. Key sites in these ecoregions represent some of the most urgent priorities for expansion of the global protected areas network to meet Convention on Biological Diversity targets to increase the proportion of land formally protected to 17% by 2020. Areas with high impact scores, rapid deforestation, low protection and high carbon storage values may represent significant opportunities for both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, for example through Reducing

Identifying priority areas for conservation: a global assessment for forest-dependent birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, Graeme M; Donald, Paul F; Butchart, Stuart H M

2011-01-01

Limited resources are available to address the world's growing environmental problems, requiring conservationists to identify priority sites for action. Using new distribution maps for all of the world's forest-dependent birds (60.6% of all bird species), we quantify the contribution of remaining forest to conserving global avian biodiversity. For each of the world's partly or wholly forested 5-km cells, we estimated an impact score of its contribution to the distribution of all the forest bird species estimated to occur within it, and so is proportional to the impact on the conservation status of the world's forest-dependent birds were the forest it contains lost. The distribution of scores was highly skewed, a very small proportion of cells having scores several orders of magnitude above the global mean. Ecoregions containing the highest values of this score included relatively species-poor islands such as Hawaii and Palau, the relatively species-rich islands of Indonesia and the Philippines, and the megadiverse Atlantic Forests and northern Andes of South America. Ecoregions with high impact scores and high deforestation rates (2000-2005) included montane forests in Cameroon and the Eastern Arc of Tanzania, although deforestation data were not available for all ecoregions. Ecoregions with high impact scores, high rates of recent deforestation and low coverage by the protected area network included Indonesia's Seram rain forests and the moist forests of Trinidad and Tobago. Key sites in these ecoregions represent some of the most urgent priorities for expansion of the global protected areas network to meet Convention on Biological Diversity targets to increase the proportion of land formally protected to 17% by 2020. Areas with high impact scores, rapid deforestation, low protection and high carbon storage values may represent significant opportunities for both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, for example through Reducing Emissions from

Conservation status affects elevational gradient in bird diversity in the Himalaya: A new perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prakash Kumar Paudel

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Understanding diversity patterns along altitudinal gradients, and their underlying causes are important for conserving biodiversity. Previous studies have focused on climatic, energetic, and geographic variables (e.g., mid-domain effects, with less attention paid to human-induced habitat modifications. We used published data of bird distributions along an elevational gradient (0–4900 m in the Nepalese Himalaya and interpolated species presence between elevational limits. The relationship between species richness and environmental variables was analyzed using generalized linear models. A low plateau relationship between bird richness and elevation was observed, with a main peak at intermediate elevations (2800 m. Across the total gradient, interpolated bird species richness had a unimodal relationship to maximum monthly precipitation and a linear response to seasonal variation in temperature, proportion of forest cover, and proportion of protected area. In lower elevations (0–2800 m, interpolated species richness had a positive and linear response to the proportion of Ramsar sites and a unimodal response to habitat heterogeneity. At higher elevations (2900–4900 m, interpolated bird richness had a positive linear response to monthly variation in temperature and a negative linear response to proportion forest cover. We conclude that factors related to human management are important drivers of elevational gradients in bird species richness. Keywords: Elevational gradient, Biogeography, Bird species richness, Conservation, Himalaya, Nepal

Ringing and recovery data prove poor at detecting migratory short-stopping of diving ducks associated with climate change throughout Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tománková, Irena; Reid, Neil; Enlander, Ian

2013-01-01

Climate change has been shown to affect the distribution of many bird species. International Waterbird Census (IWC) data revealed that Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula and Goldeneye Bucephala clangula have shifted their European wintering distributions northeastwards as a direct response to increased ...... in recovery distances. We conclude that ringing and recovery data provide little utility in detecting changes in migratory behaviour of these waterbirds.......Climate change has been shown to affect the distribution of many bird species. International Waterbird Census (IWC) data revealed that Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula and Goldeneye Bucephala clangula have shifted their European wintering distributions northeastwards as a direct response to increased...... the southwest to northeast from 1950 onwards, but this change could not be linked to winter temperatures. Conversely, Tufted Duck directly violated our hypothesis with its recovery distances increasing significantly by about 400 km but again this change could not be explicitly linked to winter temperatures...

Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

2011-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

Climate-driven polar motion

Science.gov (United States)

Celaya, Michael A.; Wahr, John M.; Bryan, Frank O.

1999-06-01

The output of a coupled climate system model provides a synthetic climate record with temporal and spatial coverage not attainable with observational data, allowing evaluation of climatic excitation of polar motion on timescales of months to decades. Analysis of the geodetically inferred Chandler excitation power shows that it has fluctuated by up to 90% since 1900 and that it has characteristics representative of a stationary Gaussian process. Our model-predicted climate excitation of the Chandler wobble also exhibits variable power comparable to the observed. Ocean currents and bottom pressure shifts acting together can alone drive the 14-month wobble. The same is true of the excitation generated by the combined effects of barometric pressure and winds. The oceanic and atmospheric contributions are this large because of a relatively high degree of constructive interference between seafloor pressure and currents and between atmospheric pressure and winds. In contrast, excitation by the redistribution of water on land appears largely insignificant. Not surprisingly, the full climate effect is even more capable of driving the wobble than the effects of the oceans or atmosphere alone are. Our match to the observed annual excitation is also improved, by about 17%, over previous estimates made with historical climate data. Efforts to explain the 30-year Markowitz wobble meet with less success. Even so, at periods ranging from months to decades, excitation generated by a model of a coupled climate system makes a close approximation to the amplitude of what is geodetically observed.

Plant and Bird Presence Strongly Influences the Microbial Communities in Soils of Admiralty Bay, Maritime Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, Lia C. R. S.; Yeargeau, Etienne; Balieiro, Fabiano C.; Piccolo, Marisa C.; Peixoto, Raquel S.; Greer, Charles W.; Rosado, Alexandre S.

2013-01-01

Understanding the environmental factors that shape microbial communities is crucial, especially in extreme environments, like Antarctica. Two main forces were reported to influence Antarctic soil microbes: birds and plants. Both birds and plants are currently undergoing relatively large changes in their distribution and abundance due to global warming. However, we need to clearly understand the relationship between plants, birds and soil microorganisms. We therefore collected rhizosphere and bulk soils from six different sampling sites subjected to different levels of bird influence and colonized by Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Maritime Antarctic. Microarray and qPCR assays targeting 16S rRNA genes of specific taxa were used to assess microbial community structure, composition and abundance and analyzed with a range of soil physico-chemical parameters. The results indicated significant rhizosphere effects in four out of the six sites, including areas with different levels of bird influence. Acidobacteria were significantly more abundant in soils with little bird influence (low nitrogen) and in bulk soil. In contrast, Actinobacteria were significantly more abundant in the rhizosphere of both plant species. At two of the sampling sites under strong bird influence (penguin colonies), Firmicutes were significantly more abundant in D. antarctica rhizosphere but not in C. quitensis rhizosphere. The Firmicutes were also positively and significantly correlated to the nitrogen concentrations in the soil. We conclude that the microbial communities in Antarctic soils are driven both by bird and plants, and that the effect is taxa-specific. PMID:23840411

Plant and bird presence strongly influences the microbial communities in soils of Admiralty Bay, Maritime Antarctica.

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, Lia C R S; Yeargeau, Etienne; Balieiro, Fabiano C; Piccolo, Marisa C; Peixoto, Raquel S; Greer, Charles W; Rosado, Alexandre S

2013-01-01

Understanding the environmental factors that shape microbial communities is crucial, especially in extreme environments, like Antarctica. Two main forces were reported to influence Antarctic soil microbes: birds and plants. Both birds and plants are currently undergoing relatively large changes in their distribution and abundance due to global warming. However, we need to clearly understand the relationship between plants, birds and soil microorganisms. We therefore collected rhizosphere and bulk soils from six different sampling sites subjected to different levels of bird influence and colonized by Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Maritime Antarctic. Microarray and qPCR assays targeting 16S rRNA genes of specific taxa were used to assess microbial community structure, composition and abundance and analyzed with a range of soil physico-chemical parameters. The results indicated significant rhizosphere effects in four out of the six sites, including areas with different levels of bird influence. Acidobacteria were significantly more abundant in soils with little bird influence (low nitrogen) and in bulk soil. In contrast, Actinobacteria were significantly more abundant in the rhizosphere of both plant species. At two of the sampling sites under strong bird influence (penguin colonies), Firmicutes were significantly more abundant in D. antarctica rhizosphere but not in C. quitensis rhizosphere. The Firmicutes were also positively and significantly correlated to the nitrogen concentrations in the soil. We conclude that the microbial communities in Antarctic soils are driven both by bird and plants, and that the effect is taxa-specific.

Plant and bird presence strongly influences the microbial communities in soils of Admiralty Bay, Maritime Antarctica.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lia C R S Teixeira

Full Text Available Understanding the environmental factors that shape microbial communities is crucial, especially in extreme environments, like Antarctica. Two main forces were reported to influence Antarctic soil microbes: birds and plants. Both birds and plants are currently undergoing relatively large changes in their distribution and abundance due to global warming. However, we need to clearly understand the relationship between plants, birds and soil microorganisms. We therefore collected rhizosphere and bulk soils from six different sampling sites subjected to different levels of bird influence and colonized by Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Maritime Antarctic. Microarray and qPCR assays targeting 16S rRNA genes of specific taxa were used to assess microbial community structure, composition and abundance and analyzed with a range of soil physico-chemical parameters. The results indicated significant rhizosphere effects in four out of the six sites, including areas with different levels of bird influence. Acidobacteria were significantly more abundant in soils with little bird influence (low nitrogen and in bulk soil. In contrast, Actinobacteria were significantly more abundant in the rhizosphere of both plant species. At two of the sampling sites under strong bird influence (penguin colonies, Firmicutes were significantly more abundant in D. antarctica rhizosphere but not in C. quitensis rhizosphere. The Firmicutes were also positively and significantly correlated to the nitrogen concentrations in the soil. We conclude that the microbial communities in Antarctic soils are driven both by bird and plants, and that the effect is taxa-specific.

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

OpenAIRE

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.

2016-01-01

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Schmid, B. V.; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. R.; Ginzler, Ch.; Walloe, L.; Bramanti, B.; Stenseth, N. C.

2015-01-01

Roč. 112, č. 10 (2015), s. 3020-3025 ISSN 0027-8424 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : yersinia-pestis * xenopsylla-cheopis * bubonic plague * central-asia * synchrony * dynamics * transmission * temperature * populations * thresholds * Yersinia pestis * medieval epidemiology * climate-driven disease dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 9.423, year: 2015 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/10/3020.full.pdf

On the origin and distribution of magnolias: Tectonics, DNA and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hebda, R. J.; Irving, E.

Extant magnolias have a classic disjunct distribution in southeast Asia and in the Americas between Canada and Brazil, and nowhere in between. Of the 17 sections (about 210 species) in two subgenera, only two, Tulipastrum and Rhytidospermum, are truly disjunct. Molecular analyses reveal that several North American species are basal forms suggesting that magnolias originated in North America, as indicated by their fossil record. We recognize four elements in their evolution. (1) Ancestral magnolias originated in the Late Cretaceous of North America in high mid-latitudes (45°-60°N) at low altitudes in a greenhouse climate. (2) During the exceptionally warm climate of the Eocene, magnolias spread eastwards, via the Disko Island and Thulean isthmuses, first to Europe, and then across Asia, still at low altitudes and high mid-latitudes. (3) With mid-Cenozoic global cooling, they shifted to lower mid-latitudes (30°-45°N), becoming extinct in Europe and southern Siberia, dividing a once continuous distribution into two, centred in eastern Asia and in North America. (4) In the late Cenozoic, as ice-house conditions developed, magnolias migrated southward from both centres into moist warm temperate upland sites in the newly uplifted mountains ranges of South and Central America, southeast Asia, and the High Archipelago, where they diversified. Thus the late Cenozoic evolution of magnolias is characterized by impoverishment of northern and diversification of southern species, the latter being driven by a combination of high relief and climate oscillations, and neither of the present centers of diversity is the center of origin. Disjunction at the generic level and within section Tulipastrum likely occurred as part of the general mid-Cenozoic southward displacement assisted by the development of north-south water barriers, especially the Turgai Strait across western Siberia. Disjunction in section Rhytidospermum could be Neogene.

Multielemental accumulation and its intracellular distribution in tissues of some aquatic birds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nam, Dong-Ha; Anan, Yasumi; Ikemoto, Tokutaka; Tanabe, Shinsuke

2005-01-01

This study was aimed at determining multielemental concentration and its intracellular distribution in selected tissues of cormorant and waterfowl species. Non-essential elements such as Hg, Tl, Cd, Pb and V in tissues were generally consistent with those in ingested items, indicating the significance of food sources of non-essential metal accumulation in great cormorants and mallards. Great cormorants and four waterfowl species examined reflected natural background levels of toxic metals such as Cd, Hg and Pb as well as some essential elements, indicating no specific metal exposure from local sources. Most of Cu, Zn, Se, Rb, Ag, Cd, Cs, and Hg contents were present in the hepatocytosolic fraction, whereas a large percentage of V and Mo were present in insoluble fraction in great cormorant, mallard, and spot-billed duck. The major role of these subcelluar fractions in elemental regulation accounts for the high percentage contribution of each cellular fraction to the total metal contents. Cadmium and Cu are chiefly sequestered through binding to metallothioneins (MTs) of hepatocytosolic fraction in these three avian species. Both MTs and high-molecular-weight substance (HMWS) for Zn and low-molecular-weight substance (LMWS) for Rb were also involved in their sequestration in cytosolic fractions. Relatively different species-specific cytosolic substances were responsible for varying degrees of Ag, Mn, and Co accumulation. It is worth noting that these intracellular metal levels in birds are closely regulated by metal-associated cellular constituents. Therefore, risk assessment studies of metal accumulation in such wild birds should take intracellular metal distribution and specific cellular constituents into account

Biodiversity funds and conservation needs in the EU under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lung, Tobias; Meller, Laura; van Teeffelen, Astrid J A; Thuiller, Wilfried; Cabeza, Mar

2014-07-01

Despite ambitious biodiversity policy goals, less than a fifth of the European Union's (EU) legally protected species and habitats show a favorable conservation status. The recent EU biodiversity strategy recognizes that climate change adds to the challenge of halting biodiversity loss, and that an optimal distribution of financial resources is needed. Here, we analyze recent EU biodiversity funding from a climate change perspective. We compare the allocation of funds to the distribution of both current conservation priorities (within and beyond Natura 2000) and future conservation needs at the level of NUTS-2 regions, using modelled bird distributions as indicators of conservation value. We find that funding is reasonably well aligned with current conservation efforts but poorly fit with future needs under climate change, indicating obstacles for implementing adaptation measures. We suggest revising EU biodiversity funding instruments for the 2014-2020 budget period to better account for potential climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Implications of diversity of groups of indigenous birds to agricultural ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To explain such contribution of birds to agriculture their role in predicting forest cover the value of which was already verified should have been done. The diversities of all the four guilds significantly and positively explained patterns in forest cover across agro-climatic zones of Ethiopia. Thus birds are important for ...

Global elevational diversity and diversification of birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Quintero, Ignacio; Jetz, Walter

2018-03-08

Mountain ranges harbour exceptionally high biodiversity, which is now under threat from rapid environmental change. However, despite decades of effort, the limited availability of data and analytical tools has prevented a robust and truly global characterization of elevational biodiversity gradients and their evolutionary origins. This has hampered a general understanding of the processes involved in the assembly and maintenance of montane communities. Here we show that a worldwide mid-elevation peak in bird richness is driven by wide-ranging species and disappears when we use a subsampling procedure that ensures even species representation in space and facilitates evolutionary interpretation. Instead, richness corrected for range size declines linearly with increasing elevation. We find that the more depauperate assemblages at higher elevations are characterized by higher rates of diversification across all mountain regions, rejecting the idea that lower recent diversification rates are the general cause of less diverse biota. Across all elevations, assemblages on mountains with high rates of past temperature change exhibit more rapid diversification, highlighting the importance of climatic fluctuations in driving the evolutionary dynamics of mountain biodiversity. While different geomorphological and climatic attributes of mountain regions have been pivotal in determining the remarkable richness gradients observed today, our results underscore the role of ongoing and often very recent diversification processes in maintaining the unique and highly adapted biodiversity of higher elevations.

Species Diversity and Bird Feed in Residential Complex

Science.gov (United States)

Hadinoto; Suhesti, Eni

2017-12-01

Bird is one component of the ecosystem which has an important role in supporting the occurrence of an organism's life cycle. Therefore, the presence of birds in an area is important, because it can affect the existence and distribution of plant species. The purpose of this study is to calculate the diversity of bird species and identify the source of bird feed in the compound. This study was conducted by field surveys in the residential complex. In addition to the birds as a research object vegetation as habitat / foraging birds were also observed. Data were analyzed by using the bird diversity index, richenes index, bundance index, dominance analysis, analysis of bird distribution and analysis of the level of meeting types, while vegetation will be analyzed based on the type and part of what is eaten by birds. In Pandau Jaya housing complex, found as many as 12 species of birds which consists of seven families. Bird species often present is Cucak Kutilang (Pycnonotus aurigaster) of 20 individuals, Bondol Peking (Lonchura punctulata) 14 individuals and Perkutut Jawa (Geopelia striata) 10 individuals. Bird species diversity (H ‘) in Pandau Jaya housing complex is still relatively moderate with a value of 2.27, while the Evenness Index (E) of 0.91 and Richenes Index (R) of 2.45. Types of vegetation as a food source, among others: mango, guava, cherry, jackfruit, ketapang, coconut, areca, palm, banana, papaya, flowers and grasses.

Montane-breeding bird distribution and abundance across national parks of southwestern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Amundson, Courtney L.; Handel, Colleen M.; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Gill, Robert E.

2018-01-01

Between 2004 and 2008, biologists conducted an inventory of breeding birds during May–June primarily in montane areas (>100 m above sea level) in Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve (Aniakchak NMP), Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai NPP), and Lake Clark National Park and Preserve (Lake Clark NPP) in southwestern Alaska. Observers conducted 1,021 point counts along 169 transects within 63 10-km × 10-km plots that were randomly selected and stratified by ecological subsection. We created hierarchical N-mixture models to estimate detection probability and abundance for 15 species, including 12 passerines, 2 galliforms, and 1 shorebird. We first modeled detection probability relative to observer, date within season, and proportion of dense vegetation cover around the point, then modeled abundance as a function of land cover composition (proportion of seven coarse-scale land cover types) within 300 m of the survey point. Land cover relationships varied widely among species but most showed selection for low to tall shrubs (0.2–5 m tall) and an avoidance of alpine and 2 dwarf shrub–herbaceous cover types. After adjusting for species not observed, we estimated a minimum of 107 ± 9 species bred in the areas surveyed within the three parks combined. Species richness was negatively associated with elevation and associated land cover types. At comparable levels of survey effort (n = 721 birds detected), species richness was greatest in Lake Clark NPP (75 ± 12 species), lowest in Aniakchak NMP (45 ± 6 species), and intermediate at Katmai NPP (59 ± 10 species). Species richness was similar at equivalent survey effort (n = 973 birds detected) within the Lime Hills, Alaska Range, and Alaska Peninsula ecoregions (68 ± 8; 79 ± 11; 67 ± 11, respectively). Species composition was similar across all three parks and across the three major ecoregions (Alaska Range, Alaska Peninsula, Lime Hills) that encompass them. Our results provide baseline estimates of

Historical Prevalence and Distribution of Avian Influenza Virus A(H7N9) among Wild Birds

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2013-12-19

Dr. Mike Miller reads an abridged version of the Emerging Infectious Diseases’ dispatch, Historical Prevalence and Distribution of Avian Influenza Virus A(H7N9) among Wild Birds.  Created: 12/19/2013 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 12/24/2013.

Local temperature fine-tunes the timing of spring migration in birds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tøttrup, Anders P.; Rainio, Kalle; Coppack, Timothy

2010-01-01

and predict consequences of climatic change for migratory birds. In order to better understand migration phenology and adaptation in environmental changes, we here assess the scale at which weather affects timing of spring migration in passerine birds. We use three commonly used proxies of spring......-time climatic conditions: (1) vegetation "greenness" (NDVI) in Europe, (2) local spring temperatures in northern Europe, and (3) the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) as predictors of the phenology of avian migration as well as the strength of their effect on different subsets of populations...... breeding area. Local temperature was the best single predictor of phenology with the highest explanatory power achieved in combination with NAO. Furthermore, early individuals are more affected by climatic variation compared to individuals on later passage, indicating that climatic change affects subsets...

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subhashni Taylor

Full Text Available The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.

Resource configuration and abundance affect space use of a cooperatively breeding resident bird

Science.gov (United States)

Richard A. Stanton; Dylan C. Kesler; Frank R. Thompson III

2014-01-01

Movement and space use of birds is driven by activities associated with acquiring and maintaining access to critical resources. Thus, the spatial configuration of resources within home ranges should influence bird movements, and resource values should be relative to their locations. We radio-tracked 22 Brown-headed Nuthatches (Sitta pusilla) and...

A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

Plasma microinstabilities driven by loss-cone distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Summers, D.; Thorne, R.M.

1995-01-01

Electromagnetic and electrostatic instabilities driven by loss-cone particle distributions have been invoked to explain a variety of plasma phenomena observed in space and in the laboratory. In this paper we analyse how the loss-cone feature (as determined by the loss-cone index or indices) influences the growth of such instabilities in a fully ionized, homogeneous, hot plasma in a uniform magnetic field. Specifically, we consider three loss-cone distributions: a generalized Lorentzian (kappa) loss-cone distribution, the Dory-Guest-Harris distribution and the Ashour-Abdalla-Kennel distribution (involving a subtracted Maxwellian). Our findings are common to all three distributions. We find that, for parallel propagation, electromagnetic instabilities are only affected by the loss-cone indices in terms of their occurrence in the temperature anisotropy. However, for oblique propagation, even including propagation at small angles to the ambient magnetic field, the loss-cone indices do independently affect the growth of instabilities for electromagnetic waves, in contrast to certain claims in the literature. For electrostatic waves such that 1/2(κ perpendicular to ρ L σ 2 L σ is the Larmor radius for particle species σ, we find that the loss-cone indices only enter the dispersion equation via the temperature anisotropy, and so in this case the loss-cone feature and perpendicular effective thermal speed do not independently affect wave growth. (Author)

ClimateSpark: An in-memory distributed computing framework for big climate data analytics

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Fei; Yang, Chaowei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Xu, Mengchao; Bowen, Michael K.; Lee, Tsengdar; Song, Weiwei

2018-06-01

The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple-dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

2018-01-01

AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

Avian Information Systems: Developing Web-Based Bird Avoidance Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judy Shamoun-Baranes

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Collisions between aircraft and birds, so-called "bird strikes," can result in serious damage to aircraft and even in the loss of lives. Information about the distribution of birds in the air and on the ground can be used to reduce the risk of bird strikes and their impact on operations en route and in and around air fields. Although a wealth of bird distribution and density data is collected by numerous organizations, these data are not readily available nor interpretable by aviation. This paper presents two national efforts, one in the Netherlands and one in the United States, to develop bird avoidance nodels for aviation. These models integrate data and expert knowledge on bird distributions and migratory behavior to provide hazard maps in the form of GIS-enabled Web services. Both models are in operational use for flight planning and flight alteration and for airfield and airfield vicinity management. These models and their presentation on the Internet are examples of the type of service that would be very useful in other fields interested in species distribution and movement information, such as conservation, disease transmission and prevention, or assessment and mitigation of anthropogenic risks to nature. We expect that developments in cyber-technology, a transition toward an open source philosophy, and higher demand for accessible biological data will result in an increase in the number of biological information systems available on the Internet.

Conserving migratory land birds in the new world: do we know enough?

Science.gov (United States)

Faaborg, John; Holmes, Richard T; Anders, Angela D; Bildstein, Keith L; Dugger, Katie M; Gauthreaux, Sidney A; Heglund, Patricia; Hobson, Keith A; Jahn, Alex E; Johnson, Douglas H; Latta, Steven C; Levey, Douglas J; Marra, Peter P; Merkord, Christopher L; Nol, Erica; Rothstein, Stephen I; Sherry, Thomas W; Sillett, T Scott; Thompson, Frank R; Warnock, Nils

2010-03-01

Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season, fall migration, wintering, and spring migration; thus, management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season, although several issues remain unsettled, including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species, knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas, Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season, when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and, possibly, reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions, wintering sites, habitat use, and basic ecology. Studies are complicated, however, by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites, which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds. The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking, with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings, towers, and wind generators adding to the risk. Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients, but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration, quality and distribution of habitats, threats posed by towers and other tall structures, and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human

Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munguí­a, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.

2012-01-01

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a compl...

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

Science.gov (United States)

Myksvoll, Mari S; Erikstad, Kjell E; Barrett, Robert T; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

2013-01-01

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Ecological Sustainability of Birds in Boreal Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerald Niemi

1998-12-01

Full Text Available We review characteristics of birds in boreal forests in the context of their ecological sustainability under both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. We identify the underlying ecological factors associated with boreal bird populations and their variability, review the interactions between boreal bird populations and disturbance, and describe some tools on how boreal bird populations may be conserved in the future. The boreal system has historically been an area with extensive disturbance such as fire, insect outbreaks, and wind. In addition, the boreal system is vulnerable to global climate change as well as increasing pressure on forest and water resources. Current knowledge indicates that birds play an important role in boreal forests, and sustaining these populations affords many benefits to the health of boreal forests. Many issues must be approached with caution, including the lack of knowledge on our ability to mimic natural disturbance regimes with management, our lack of understanding on fragmentation due to logging activity, which is different from permanent conversion to other land uses such as agriculture or residential area, and our lack of knowledge on what controls variability in boreal bird populations or the linkage between bird population fluctuations and productivity. The essential role that birds can provide is to clarify important ecological concerns and variables that not only will help to sustain bird populations, but also will contribute to the long-term health of the boreal forest for all species, including humans.

Temporal genomic evolution of bird sex chromosomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Zongji; Zhang, Jilin; Yang, Wei

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Sex chromosomes exhibit many unusual patterns in sequence and gene expression relative to autosomes. Birds have evolved a female heterogametic sex system (male ZZ, female ZW), through stepwise suppression of recombination between chrZ and chrW. To address the broad patterns and complex...... driving forces of Z chromosome evolution, we analyze here 45 newly available bird genomes and four species' transcriptomes, over their course of recombination loss between the sex chromosomes. RESULTS: We show Z chromosomes in general have a significantly higher substitution rate in introns and synonymous...... ('fast-Z' evolution). And species with a lower level of intronic heterozygosities tend to evolve even faster on the Z chromosome. Further analysis of fast-evolving genes' enriched functional categories and sex-biased expression patterns support that, fast-Z evolution in birds is mainly driven by genetic...

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had

Dynamics of a recovering Arctic bird population: the importance of climate, density dependence, and site quality

Science.gov (United States)

Bruggeman, Jason E.; Swem, Ted; Andersen, David E.; Kennedy, Patricia L.; Nigro, Debora A.

2015-01-01

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect vital rates and population-level processes, and understanding these factors is paramount to devising successful management plans for wildlife species. For example, birds time migration in response, in part, to local and broadscale climate fluctuations to initiate breeding upon arrival to nesting territories, and prolonged inclement weather early in the breeding season can inhibit egg-laying and reduce productivity. Also, density-dependent regulation occurs in raptor populations, as territory size is related to resource availability. Arctic Peregrine Falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius; hereafter Arctic peregrine) have a limited and northern breeding distribution, including the Colville River Special Area (CRSA) in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, USA. We quantified influences of climate, topography, nest productivity, prey habitat, density dependence, and interspecific competition affecting Arctic peregrines in the CRSA by applying the Dail-Madsen model to estimate abundance and vital rates of adults on nesting cliffs from 1981 through 2002. Arctic peregrine abundance increased throughout the 1980s, which spanned the population's recovery from DDT-induced reproductive failure, until exhibiting a stationary trend in the 1990s. Apparent survival rate (i.e., emigration; death) was negatively correlated with the number of adult Arctic peregrines on the cliff the previous year, suggesting effects of density-dependent population regulation. Apparent survival and arrival rates (i.e., immigration; recruitment) were higher during years with earlier snowmelt and milder winters, and apparent survival was positively correlated with nesting season maximum daily temperature. Arrival rate was positively correlated with average Arctic peregrine productivity along a cliff segment from the previous year and initial abundance was positively correlated with cliff height. Higher cliffs with documented higher productivity (presumably

Data near processing support for climate data analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kindermann, Stephan; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Hempelmann, Nils

2016-04-01

Climate data repositories grow in size exponentially. Scalable data near processing capabilities are required to meet future data analysis requirements and to replace current "data download and process at home" workflows and approaches. On one hand side, these processing capabilities should be accessible via standardized interfaces (e.g. OGC WPS), on the other side a large variety of processing tools, toolboxes and deployment alternatives have to be supported and maintained at the data/processing center. We present a community approach of a modular and flexible system supporting the development, deployment and maintenace of OGC-WPS based web processing services. This approach is organized in an open source github project (called "bird-house") supporting individual processing services ("birds", e.g. climate index calculations, model data ensemble calculations), which rely on basic common infrastructural components (e.g. installation and deployment recipes, analysis code dependencies management). To support easy deployment at data centers as well as home institutes (e.g. for testing and development) the system supports the management of the often very complex package dependency chain of climate data analysis packages as well as docker based packaging and installation. We present a concrete deployment scenario at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The DKRZ one hand side hosts a multi-petabyte climate archive which is integrated e.g. into the european ENES and worldwide ESGF data infrastructure, and on the other hand hosts an HPC center supporting (model) data production and data analysis. The deployment scenario also includes openstack based data cloud services to support data import and data distribution for bird-house based WPS web processing services. Current challenges for inter-institutionnal deployments of web processing services supporting the european and international climate modeling community as well as the climate impact community are highlighted

Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard E. Feldman

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-01

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Ground Water and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike;

9 CFR 93.104 - Certificate for pet birds, commercial birds, zoological birds, and research birds.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Certificate for pet birds, commercial birds, zoological birds, and research birds. 93.104 Section 93.104 Animals and Animal Products ANIMAL... (INCLUDING POULTRY) AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS IMPORTATION OF CERTAIN ANIMALS, BIRDS, FISH, AND POULTRY, AND CERTAIN...

Population Change in a Marine Bird Colony is Driven By Changes in Recruitment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony J. Gaston

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The population dynamics of long-lived birds are thought to be very sensitive to changes in adult survival. However, where natal philopatry is low, recruitment from the larger metapopulation may have the strongest effect on population growth rate even in long-lived species. Here, we illustrate such a situation where changes in a seabird colony size appeared to be the consequence of changes in recruitment. We studied the population dynamics of a declining colony of Ancient Murrelets (Synthliboramphus antiquus at East Limestone Island, British Columbia. During 1990-2010, Ancient Murrelet chicks were trapped at East Limestone Island while departing to sea, using a standard trapping method carried on throughout the departure period. Adult murrelets were trapped while departing from the colony during 1990-2003. Numbers of chicks trapped declined during 1990-1995, probably because of raccoon predation, increased slightly from 1995-2000 and subsequently declined again. Reproductive success was 30% lower during 2000-2003 than in earlier years, mainly because of an increase in desertions. The proportion of nonbreeders among adult birds trapped at night also declined over the study period. Mortality of adult birds, thought to be mainly prebreeders, from predators more than doubled over the same period. Apparent adult survival of breeders remained constant during 1991-2002 once the first year after banding was excluded, but the apparent survival rates in the first year after banding fell and the survival of birds banded as chicks to age three halved over the same period. A matrix model of population dynamics suggested that even during the early part of the study immigration from other breeding areas must have been substantial, supporting earlier observations that natal philopatry in this species is low. The general colony decline after 2000 probably was related to diminished recruitment, as evidenced by the lower proportion of nonbreeders in the trapped

Virginia ESI: BIRDS (Bird Polygons)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, raptors, diving birds, pelagic birds, passerine birds, and gulls...

[Distribution of aquatic and raptor birds in a freshwater artificial pond of Baja California Sur, Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo-Guerrero, J A; Carmona, R

2001-01-01

We determined the taxonomic composition and spatial-temporal distribution of aquatic and raptor birds in a freshwater artificial pond of El Centenario, Baja California Sur, México, during 24 biweekly censuses (April, 1998 to March, 1999). The pond is particularly attractive for birds because of its variety of food items. A total 25,563 records of 69 species were done, among them the first report of Chlidonias niger and Phalaropus tricolor for the region. Species richness and abundance were determined for the migrant component, mostly Anatidae (16 species and 55.6% of the total abundance) and shorebirds (18 species and 13.3%). The greater number of species and individuals was in C the deepest and more heterogeneous section of the pond. The most important species was Oxyura jamaicensis (30% of the total observed individuals), with highest abundance in the peninsula. The artificial pond presented an atypical and distinct ornithological composition because it is located in an arid region, and acts as a resting site for migrant birds. The site included species that usually live in freshwater and coastal areas, a characteristic reflected in their high richness. It contributes noticeably to the local avian biodiversity.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

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Xuezhen Ge

Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Numerical simulation of geomorphic, climatic and anthropogenic drivers of soil distribution on semi-arid hillslopes

Science.gov (United States)

Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.; Svoray, T.; Sela, S.; Hancock, G. R.

2010-12-01

Numerical models are an important tool for studying landscape processes as they allow us to isolate specific processes and drivers and test various physics and spatio-temporal scenarios. Here we use a distributed physically-based soil evolution model (mARM4D) to describe the drivers and processes controlling soil-landscape evolution on a field-site at the fringe between the Mediterranean and desert regions of Israel. This study is an initial effort in a larger project aimed at improving our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers that led to the extensive removal of soils from the loess covered hillslopes of this region. This specific region is interesting as it is located between the Mediterranean climate region in which widespread erosion from hillslopes was attributed to human activity during the Holocene and the arid region in which extensive removal of loess from hillslopes was shown to have been driven by climatic changes during the late-Pleistocene. First we study the sediment transport mechanism of the soil-landscape evolution processes in our study-site. We simulate soil-landscape evolution with only one sediment transport process (fluvial or diffusive) at a time. We find that diffusive sediment transport is likely the dominant process in this site as it resulted in soil distributions that better corresponds to current observations. We then simulate several realistic climatic/anthropogenic scenarios (based on the literature) in order to quantify the sensitivity of the soil-landscape evolution process to temporal fluctuations. We find that this site is relatively insensitive to short term (several thousands of years) sharp, changes. This suggests that climate, rather then human activity, was the main driver for the extensive removal of loess from the hillslopes.

Using radar to advance migratory bird management: An interagency collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Sojda, R.; Ruth, J.M.; Barrow, W.C.; Dawson, D.K.; Diehl, R.H.; Manville, A.; Green, M.T.; Krueper, D.J.; Johnston, S.

2005-01-01

Migratory birds face many changes to the landscapes they traverse and the habitats they use. Wind turbines and communications towers, which pose hazards to birds and bats in flight, are being erected across the United States and offshore. Human activities can also destroy or threaten habitats critical to birds during migratory passage, and climate change appears to be altering migratory patterns. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and other agencies are under increasing pressure to identify and evaluate movement patterns and habitats used during migration and other times.

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mari S Myksvoll

Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Spatial and historical distribution of organic phosphorus driven by environment conditions in lake sediments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lü, Changwei; He, Jiang; Wang, Bing

2018-02-01

The chemistry of sedimentary organic phosphorus (OP) and its fraction distribution in sediments are greatly influenced by environmental conditions such as terrestrial inputs and runoffs. The linkage of OP with environmental conditions was analyzed on the basis of OP spatial and historical distributions in lake sediments. The redundancy analysis and OP spatial distribution results suggested that both NaOH-OP (OP extracted by NaOH) and Re-OP (residual OP) in surface sediments from the selected 13 lakes reflected the gradient effects of environmental conditions and the autochthonous and/or allochthonous inputs driven by latitude zonality in China. The lake level and salinity of Lake Hulun and the runoff and precipitation of its drainage basin were reconstructed on the basis of the geochemistry index. This work showed that a gradient in weather conditions presented by the latitude zonality in China impacts the OP accumulation through multiple drivers and in many ways. The drivers are mainly precipitation and temperature, governing organic matter (OM) production, degradation rate and transportation in the watershed. Over a long temporal dimension (4000years), the vertical distributions of Re-OP and NaOH-OP based on a dated sediment profile from HLH were largely regulated by the autochthonous and/or allochthonous inputs, which depended on the environmental and climate conditions and anthropogenic activities in the drainage basin. This work provides useful environmental geochemistry information to understand the inherent linkage of OP fractionation with environmental conditions and lake evolution. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

2015-07-01

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pecl, Gretta T.; Bastos, Miguel; Bell, Johann D.

2017-01-01

Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that ...... by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals....

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2012-01-01

The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

Science.gov (United States)

Scallion, M.

2017-12-01

Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to

Comparing aerodynamic efficiency in birds and bats suggests better flight performance in birds.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian T Muijres

Full Text Available Flight is one of the energetically most costly activities in the animal kingdom, suggesting that natural selection should work to optimize flight performance. The similar size and flight speed of birds and bats may therefore suggest convergent aerodynamic performance; alternatively, flight performance could be restricted by phylogenetic constraints. We test which of these scenarios fit to two measures of aerodynamic flight efficiency in two passerine bird species and two New World leaf-nosed bat species. Using time-resolved particle image velocimetry measurements of the wake of the animals flying in a wind tunnel, we derived the span efficiency, a metric for the efficiency of generating lift, and the lift-to-drag ratio, a metric for mechanical energetic flight efficiency. We show that the birds significantly outperform the bats in both metrics, which we ascribe to variation in aerodynamic function of body and wing upstroke: Bird bodies generated relatively more lift than bat bodies, resulting in a more uniform spanwise lift distribution and higher span efficiency. A likely explanation would be that the bat ears and nose leaf, associated with echolocation, disturb the flow over the body. During the upstroke, the birds retract their wings to make them aerodynamically inactive, while the membranous bat wings generate thrust and negative lift. Despite the differences in performance, the wake morphology of both birds and bats resemble the optimal wake for their respective lift-to-drag ratio regimes. This suggests that evolution has optimized performance relative to the respective conditions of birds and bats, but that maximum performance is possibly limited by phylogenetic constraints. Although ecological differences between birds and bats are subjected to many conspiring variables, the different aerodynamic flight efficiency for the bird and bat species studied here may help explain why birds typically fly faster, migrate more frequently and migrate

Comparing aerodynamic efficiency in birds and bats suggests better flight performance in birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Muijres, Florian T; Johansson, L Christoffer; Bowlin, Melissa S; Winter, York; Hedenström, Anders

2012-01-01

Flight is one of the energetically most costly activities in the animal kingdom, suggesting that natural selection should work to optimize flight performance. The similar size and flight speed of birds and bats may therefore suggest convergent aerodynamic performance; alternatively, flight performance could be restricted by phylogenetic constraints. We test which of these scenarios fit to two measures of aerodynamic flight efficiency in two passerine bird species and two New World leaf-nosed bat species. Using time-resolved particle image velocimetry measurements of the wake of the animals flying in a wind tunnel, we derived the span efficiency, a metric for the efficiency of generating lift, and the lift-to-drag ratio, a metric for mechanical energetic flight efficiency. We show that the birds significantly outperform the bats in both metrics, which we ascribe to variation in aerodynamic function of body and wing upstroke: Bird bodies generated relatively more lift than bat bodies, resulting in a more uniform spanwise lift distribution and higher span efficiency. A likely explanation would be that the bat ears and nose leaf, associated with echolocation, disturb the flow over the body. During the upstroke, the birds retract their wings to make them aerodynamically inactive, while the membranous bat wings generate thrust and negative lift. Despite the differences in performance, the wake morphology of both birds and bats resemble the optimal wake for their respective lift-to-drag ratio regimes. This suggests that evolution has optimized performance relative to the respective conditions of birds and bats, but that maximum performance is possibly limited by phylogenetic constraints. Although ecological differences between birds and bats are subjected to many conspiring variables, the different aerodynamic flight efficiency for the bird and bat species studied here may help explain why birds typically fly faster, migrate more frequently and migrate longer distances

Integrated Cost-Benefit Assessment of Customer-Driven Distributed Generatio

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Čedomir Zeljković

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Distributed generation (DG has the potential to bring respectable benefits to electricity customers, distribution utilities and community in general. Among the customer benefits, the most important are the electricity bill reduction, reliability improvement, use of recovered heat, and qualifying for financial incentives. In this paper, an integrated cost-benefit methodology for assessment of customer-driven DG is presented. Target customers are the industrial and commercial end-users that are critically dependent on electricity supply, due to high consumption, high power peak demand or high electricity supply reliability requirements. Stochastic inputs are represented by the appropriate probability models and then the Monte Carlo simulation is employed for each investment alternative. The obtained probability distributions for the prospective profit are used to assess the risk, compare the alternatives and make decisions.

Rapid and recent diversification patterns in Anseriformes birds: Inferred from molecular phylogeny and diversification analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Zhonglou; Pan, Tao; Hu, Chaochao; Sun, Lu; Ding, Hengwu; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Chenling; Jin, Hong; Chang, Qing; Kan, Xianzhao; Zhang, Baowei

2017-01-01

The Anseriformes is a well-known and widely distributed bird order, with more than 150 species in the world. This paper aims to revise the classification, determine the phylogenetic relationships and diversification patterns in Anseriformes by exploring the Cyt b, ND2, COI genes and the complete mitochondrial genomes (mito-genomes). Molecular phylogeny and genetic distance analyses suggest that the Dendrocygna species should be considered as an independent family, Dendrocygnidae, rather than a member of Anatidae. Molecular timescale analyses suggests that the ancestral diversification occurred during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (58 ~ 50 Ma). Furthermore, diversification analyses showed that, after a long period of constant diversification, the median initial speciation rate was accelerated three times, and finally increased to approximately 0.3 sp/My. In the present study, both molecular phylogeny and diversification analyses results support that Anseriformes birds underwent rapid and recent diversification in their evolutionary history, especially in modern ducks, which show extreme diversification during the Plio-Pleistocene (~ 5.3 Ma). Therefore, our study support that the Plio-Pleistocene climate fluctuations are likely to have played a significant role in promoting the recent diversification for Anseriformes.

Rapid and recent diversification patterns in Anseriformes birds: Inferred from molecular phylogeny and diversification analyses.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhonglou Sun

Full Text Available The Anseriformes is a well-known and widely distributed bird order, with more than 150 species in the world. This paper aims to revise the classification, determine the phylogenetic relationships and diversification patterns in Anseriformes by exploring the Cyt b, ND2, COI genes and the complete mitochondrial genomes (mito-genomes. Molecular phylogeny and genetic distance analyses suggest that the Dendrocygna species should be considered as an independent family, Dendrocygnidae, rather than a member of Anatidae. Molecular timescale analyses suggests that the ancestral diversification occurred during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (58 ~ 50 Ma. Furthermore, diversification analyses showed that, after a long period of constant diversification, the median initial speciation rate was accelerated three times, and finally increased to approximately 0.3 sp/My. In the present study, both molecular phylogeny and diversification analyses results support that Anseriformes birds underwent rapid and recent diversification in their evolutionary history, especially in modern ducks, which show extreme diversification during the Plio-Pleistocene (~ 5.3 Ma. Therefore, our study support that the Plio-Pleistocene climate fluctuations are likely to have played a significant role in promoting the recent diversification for Anseriformes.

Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia's Threatened Species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasmine R Lee

Full Text Available Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.

Data-Driven Iterative Vibration Signal Enhancement Strategy Using Alpha Stable Distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grzegorz Żak

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The authors propose a novel procedure for enhancement of the signal to noise ratio in vibration data acquired from machines working in mining industry environment. Proposed method allows performing data-driven reduction of the deterministic, high energy, and low frequency components. Furthermore, it provides a way to enhance signal of interest. Procedure incorporates application of the time-frequency decomposition, α-stable distribution based signal modeling, and stability parameter in the time domain as a stoppage criterion for iterative part of the procedure. An advantage of the proposed algorithm is data-driven, automative detection of the informative frequency band as well as band with high energy due to the properties of the used distribution. Furthermore, there is no need to have knowledge regarding kinematics, speed, and so on. The proposed algorithm is applied towards real data acquired from the belt conveyor pulley drive’s gearbox.

Digital Accessible Knowledge and well-inventoried sites for birds in Mexico: baseline sites for measuring faunistic change.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2016-01-01

Faunal change is a basic and fundamental element in ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology, yet vanishingly few detailed studies have documented such changes rigorously over decadal time scales. This study responds to that gap in knowledge, providing a detailed analysis of Digital Accessible Knowledge of the birds of Mexico, designed to marshal DAK to identify sites that were sampled and inventoried rigorously prior to the beginning of major global climate change (1980). We accumulated DAK records for Mexican birds from all relevant online biodiversity data portals. After extensive cleaning steps, we calculated completeness indices for each 0.05° pixel across the country; we also detected 'hotspots' of sampling, and calculated completeness indices for these broader areas as well. Sites were designated as well-sampled if they had completeness indices above 80% and >200 associated DAK records. We identified 100 individual pixels and 20 broader 'hotspots' of sampling that were demonstrably well-inventoried prior to 1980. These sites are catalogued and documented to promote and enable resurvey efforts that can document events of avifaunal change (and non-change) across the country on decadal time scales. Development of repeated surveys for many sites across Mexico, and particularly for sites for which historical surveys document their avifaunas prior to major climate change processes, would pay rich rewards in information about distributional dynamics of Mexican birds.

Modelling climate change impact on the spatial distribution of fresh water snails hosting trematodes in Zimbabwe.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Ulrik B; Stendel, Martin; Midzi, Nicholas; Mduluza, Takafira; Soko, White; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Vennervald, Birgitte J; Mukaratirwa, Samson; Kristensen, Thomas K

2014-12-12

Freshwater snails are intermediate hosts for a number of trematodes of which some are of medical and veterinary importance. The trematodes rely on specific species of snails to complete their life cycle; hence the ecology of the snails is a key element in transmission of the parasites. More than 200 million people are infected with schistosomes of which 95% live in sub-Saharan Africa and many more are living in areas where transmission is on-going. Human infection with the Fasciola parasite, usually considered more of veterinary concern, has recently been recognised as a human health problem. Many countries have implemented health programmes to reduce morbidity and prevalence of schistosomiasis, and control programmes to mitigate food-borne fascioliasis. As these programmes are resource demanding, baseline information on disease prevalence and distribution becomes of great importance. Such information can be made available and put into practice through maps depicting spatial distribution of the intermediate snail hosts. A biology driven model for the freshwater snails Bulinus globosus, Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis was used to make predictions of snail habitat suitability by including potential underlying environmental and climatic drivers. The snail observation data originated from a nationwide survey in Zimbabwe and the prediction model was parameterised with a high resolution Regional Climate Model. Georeferenced prevalence data on urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis and fascioliasis was used to calibrate the snail habitat suitability predictions to produce binary maps of snail presence and absence. Predicted snail habitat suitability across Zimbabwe, as well as the spatial distribution of snails, is reported for three time slices representative for present (1980-1999) and future climate (2046-2065 and 2080-2099). It is shown from the current study that snail habitat suitability is highly variable in Zimbabwe, with distinct high- and low

Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Ocampo-Peñuela

Full Text Available Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species' ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800 m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800 m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400 m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species' elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species' elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Pimm, Stuart L

2015-01-01

Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species' ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800 m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800 m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400 m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species' elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species' elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

Birds and bird habitats: guidelines for wind power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-10-01

Established in 2009, the Green Energy Act aims to increase the use of renewable energy sources including wind, water, solar and bioenergy in Ontario. The development of these resources is a major component of the province's plan, which aims to mitigate the contribution to climate change and to involve the Ontario's economy in the improvement of the quality of the environment. The Green Energy Act also considers as important the implementation of a coordinated provincial approval process, suggesting the integration of all Ministry requirements into a unique process during the evaluation of newly proposed renewable energy projects. The Ministry of the Environment's Renewable Energy Approval Regulation details the requirements for wind power projects involving significant natural features. Birds are an important part of Ontario's biodiversity and, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources, their habitats are considered as significant wildlife habitat (SWH). The Renewable Energy Approval Regulation and this guideline are meant to provide elements and guidance in order to protect bird SWH during the selection of a location of wind power facilities. . 27 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs.

Resource tracking within and across continents in long-distance bird migrants

KAUST Repository

Thorup, Kasper

2017-01-05

Migratory birds track seasonal resources across and between continents. We propose a general strategy of tracking the broad seasonal abundance of resources throughout the annual cycle in the longest-distance migrating land birds as an alternative to tracking a certain climatic niche or shorter-term resource surplus occurring, for example, during spring foliation. Whether and how this is possible for complex annual spatiotemporal schedules is not known. New tracking technology enables unprecedented spatial and temporal mapping of long-distance movement of birds. We show that three Palearctic-African species track vegetation greenness throughout their annual cycle, adjusting the timing and direction of migratory movements with seasonal changes in resource availability over Europe and Africa. Common cuckoos maximize the vegetation greenness, whereas red-backed shrikes and thrush nightingales track seasonal surplus in greenness. Our results demonstrate that the longest-distance migrants move between consecutive staging areas even within the wintering region in Africa to match seasonal variation in regional climate. End-of-century climate projections indicate that optimizing greenness would be possible but that vegetation surplus might be more difficult to track in the future.

Resource tracking within and across continents in long-distance bird migrants.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorup, Kasper; Tøttrup, Anders P; Willemoes, Mikkel; Klaassen, Raymond H G; Strandberg, Roine; Vega, Marta Lomas; Dasari, Hari P; Araújo, Miguel B; Wikelski, Martin; Rahbek, Carsten

2017-01-01

Migratory birds track seasonal resources across and between continents. We propose a general strategy of tracking the broad seasonal abundance of resources throughout the annual cycle in the longest-distance migrating land birds as an alternative to tracking a certain climatic niche or shorter-term resource surplus occurring, for example, during spring foliation. Whether and how this is possible for complex annual spatiotemporal schedules is not known. New tracking technology enables unprecedented spatial and temporal mapping of long-distance movement of birds. We show that three Palearctic-African species track vegetation greenness throughout their annual cycle, adjusting the timing and direction of migratory movements with seasonal changes in resource availability over Europe and Africa. Common cuckoos maximize the vegetation greenness, whereas red-backed shrikes and thrush nightingales track seasonal surplus in greenness. Our results demonstrate that the longest-distance migrants move between consecutive staging areas even within the wintering region in Africa to match seasonal variation in regional climate. End-of-century climate projections indicate that optimizing greenness would be possible but that vegetation surplus might be more difficult to track in the future.

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Climate Science's Globally Distributed Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, D. N.

2016-12-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is primarily funded by the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science (the Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] Climate Data Informatics Program and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research Next Generation Network for Science Program), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), the European Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modeling (IS-ENES), and the Australian National University (ANU). Support also comes from other U.S. federal and international agencies. The federation works across multiple worldwide data centers and spans seven international network organizations to provide users with the ability to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a series of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered and united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports), multiple model intercomparison projects (MIPs; endorsed by the World Climate Research Programme [WCRP]), and the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME; ESGF is included in the overarching ACME workflow process to store model output). ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs the global climate science community. Data served by ESGF includes not only model output but also observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalysis, and generated images.

Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy

2011-01-01

It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation), climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle...... cultivation and cattle farming, probably reflecting a change to a more favorable climate for maize cultivation: in the beginning of the study period, northern areas were mostly too cold for maize cultivation, irrespective of cattle density, but this limitation has been diminishing as climate has warmed...

Data-driven diagnostics of terrestrial carbon dynamics over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Jingfeng Xiao; Scott V. Ollinger; Steve Frolking; George C. Hurtt; David Y. Hollinger; Kenneth J. Davis; Yude Pan; Xiaoyang Zhang; Feng Deng; Jiquan Chen; Dennis D. Baldocchi; Bevery E. Law; M. Altaf Arain; Ankur R. Desai; Andrew D. Richardson; Ge Sun; Brian Amiro; Hank Margolis; Lianhong Gu; Russell L. Scott; Peter D. Blanken; Andrew E. Suyker

2014-01-01

The exchange of carbon dioxide is a key measure of ecosystem metabolism and a critical intersection between the terrestrial biosphere and the Earth's climate. Despite the general agreement that the terrestrial ecosystems in North America provide a sizeable carbon sink, the size and distribution of the sink remain uncertain. We use a data-driven approach to upscale...

Late Quaternary climate-change velocity: Implications for modern distributions and communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandel, Brody Steven; Dalsgaard, Bo; Arge, Lars Allan

a global map of climate-change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and used this measure of climate instability to address a number of classic hypotheses. Results/Conclusions We show that historical climate-change velocity is related to a wide range of characteristics of modern distributions...

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valerie Steen

Full Text Available The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs. We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%. However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper to -100% (Wilson's Snipe. Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Study of Climate Change Impact to Local Rainfall Distribution in Lampung Provinces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tumiar Katarina Manik

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Global warming which leads to climate change has potential affect to Indonesia agriculture activities and production. Analyzing rainfall pattern and distribution is important to investigate the impact of global climate change to local climate. This study using rainfall data from 1976-2010 from both lowland and upland area of Lampung Province. The results show that rainfall tends to decrease since the 1990s which related to the years with El Nino event. Monsoonal pattern- having rain and dry season- still excist in Lampung; however, since most rain fell below the average, it could not meet crops water need. Farmers conclude that dry seasons were longer and seasonal pattern has been changed. Global climate change might affect Lampung rainfall distribution through changes on sea surface temperature which could intensify the El Nino effect. Therefore, watching the El Nino phenomena and how global warming affects it, is important in predicting local climate especially the rainfall distribution in order to prevent significant loss in agriculture productivities.

Heat Driven Cooling in District Energy Systems; Vaermedriven Kyla

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rydstrand, Magnus; Martin, Viktoria; Westermark, Mats [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Technology

2004-07-01

This report is reviewing different heat driven technologies for the production of cooling. It is shown that the supply of cooling gives the highest fuel utilization if heat from CHP production is used for the production of cooling instead of maximizing the electricity output in a condensing plant. High fuel utilization is reached since the direct production of cooling from heat is a thermodynamic shortcut as compared to the production of electricity as an intermediate product before cooling is produced. At direct production of cooling from heat it is possible to obtain 70 percent of the obtainable cooling of an ideal process. If electricity is produced from heat, 70 percent electricity could be obtained as compared to an ideal process. If this electricity would be used for the production of cooling 70 percent of the obtainable cooling in an ideal process would the result. The total production of cooling from heat with electricity as an intermediate product would therefore give 50 percent cooling as compared to an ideal process. Hence, heat driven cooling will give more cooling for a given fuel input. In the review of the different heat driven cooling options it was found that there are many alternatives suitable for different applications. Absorption cooling is suitable for water distributed cooling if the latent cooling load is low. Desiccant cooling is believed to have a large market in climates (applications) with high latent cooling loads. In the energy efficiency evaluation it is found that the highest fuel utilization is given for a central production of electricity using either district heating or district cooling as the energy carrier to supply cooling. In fact the potential of district heating as the energy carrier is thought to be the largest in large cities with humid climates. Further it is found that the chiller heat sink can contribute significantly to the cost in many applications, especially if water and/or electricity consumption are issues with

Climate induced changes in biome distribution, NPP and hydrology for potential vegetation of the Upper Midwest U.S

Science.gov (United States)

Motew, M.; Kucharik, C. J.

2011-12-01

While much attention is focused on future impacts of climate change on ecosystems, much can be learned about the previous interactions of ecosystems with recent climate change. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation distributions (i.e. grasses, trees, and shrubs) and carbon and water cycling across the Upper Midwest USA from 1948-2007 using the Agro-IBIS dynamic vegetation model. We drove the model using a historical, gridded daily climate data set (temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at a spatial resolution of 5 min x 5 min. While trends in climate variables exhibited heterogeneous spatial patterns over the study period, the overall impact of climate change on vegetation productivity was positive. We observed total increases in net primary productivity (NPP) ranging from 20-150 g C m-2, based on linear regression analysis. We determined that increased summer relative humidity, increased annual precipitation and decreased mean maximum summer temperatures were key variables contributing to these positive trends, likely through a reduction in soil moisture stress (e.g., increased available water) and heat stress. Model simulations also illustrated an increase in annual drainage throughout the region of 20-140 mm yr-1, driven by substantial increases in annual precipitation. Evapotranspiration had a highly variable spatial trend over the 60-year period, with total change over the study period ranging between -100 and +100 mm yr-1. We also analyzed potential changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions at the biome level, but hypothesize that the model may be unable to adequately capture competitive interactions among PFTs as well as the dynamics between upper and lower canopies consisting of trees, grasses and shrubs. An analysis of the bioclimatic envelopes for PFTs common to the region revealed no significant change to the boreal conifer tree climatic domain over the study

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2014-12-01

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xue; Ge, Xuezhen; Chen, Linghong; Zhang, Linjing; Wang, Tao; Shixiang, Zong

2018-05-28

Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in northwestern China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N - 51° N and 74° E - 134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N - 53° N and 74° E - 134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The Origin and Diversification of Birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Brusatte, Stephen L; O'Connor, Jingmai K; Jarvis, Erich D

2015-10-05

Birds are one of the most recognizable and diverse groups of modern vertebrates. Over the past two decades, a wealth of new fossil discoveries and phylogenetic and macroevolutionary studies has transformed our understanding of how birds originated and became so successful. Birds evolved from theropod dinosaurs during the Jurassic (around 165-150 million years ago) and their classic small, lightweight, feathered, and winged body plan was pieced together gradually over tens of millions of years of evolution rather than in one burst of innovation. Early birds diversified throughout the Jurassic and Cretaceous, becoming capable fliers with supercharged growth rates, but were decimated at the end-Cretaceous extinction alongside their close dinosaurian relatives. After the mass extinction, modern birds (members of the avian crown group) explosively diversified, culminating in more than 10,000 species distributed worldwide today. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alabama ESI: BIRDS (Bird Polygons)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, raptors, diving birds, seabirds, passerine birds, gulls, and terns...

Maryland ESI: BIRDS (Bird Polygons)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, raptors, diving birds, seabirds, passerine birds, and gulls and...

Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

2018-06-01

The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

2016-07-01

Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

Influence of hiking trails on montane birds

Science.gov (United States)

William V. Deluca; David I. King

2014-01-01

Montane forests contribute significantly to regional biodiversity. Long-term monitoring data, often located along hiking trails, suggests that several indicator species of this ecosystem have declined in recent decades. Declining montane bird populations have been attributed to anthropogenic stressors such as climate change and atmospheric deposition. Several studies...

Bird associations with shrubsteppe plant communities at the proposed reference repository location in southeastern Washington

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schuler, C.A.; Rickard, W.H.; Sargeant, G.A.

1988-03-01

This report provides information on te seasonal use of shrubsteppe vegetation by bird species at the RRL. Bird abundance and distribution were studied at the RRL to ensure that the DOE monitored migratory bird species pursuant to the Migratory Bird Treaty Act and to assess potential impacts of site characterization activities on bird populations. Birds were counted on two transects that together sampled an areas of 1.39 km/sup 2/. The relative abundance of birds, species richness, seasonal distribution, and the association of breeding shrubsteppe birds with major vegetation types were determined from Janurary through December 1987. Only 38 species were counted during 82 surveys. Total bird density during the nesting season (March-June) was 42.96 birdskm/sup 2/ and the density for the entire year was 26.74 birdskm/sup 2/. The characteristic nesting birds in shrubsteppe habitats were western meadowlark, sage sparrow, burrowing owl, mourning dove, horned lark, long-billed curlew, lark sparrow, and loggerhead shrike. Western meadowlark and sage sparrows were the most abundant breeding birds with an average density of 11.25 and 7.76 birdskm/sup 2/, respectively. Seasonal distribution of birds varied with species, but most species were present from March to September. Distribution and abunandance of nesting birds were correlated with habitat type. About 63% of the habitat surveyed was sagebrush, 26% was cheatgrass, and 11% was spiny hopsage. Sagebrush habitat supproted a greeater total bird density than cheatgrass or hopsage habitats. Sage sparrows were closely associated with sagebrush habitats, while western meadowlarks showed no strong habitat affinities. 22 refs., 9 figs., 6 tabs

Behavior of emu bird (Dromaius novaehollandiae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. R. Patodkar

Full Text Available Emu is the second largest living bird of world belonging to order Ratite. This order is of flightless birds with flat breast bone and it includes emu, ostrich, rhea, cassowary and kiwi. Emus are reared commercially in many parts of the world for their meat, oil, skin and feathers, which are of high economic value. The anatomical and physiological features of these birds appear to be suitable for temperate and tropical climatic conditions. Emu is newly introduced species in India. Although emu farming is considered to be economical, we have to study the behavior of emus to increase the profitability by providing housing, feeding and breeding facilities more or less same as that of in wild condition during their rearing in captivity and we will have to carry out comparative study of behavior in captivity as well as in wild condition. [Vet World 2009; 2(11.000: 439-440

Climate-Driven Changes Within the Larch Forest of Northern Siberia

Science.gov (United States)

Kharuk, V.

2015-12-01

Thanks to the support of NASA's Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Focus Area programs, joint NASA/ Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences studies have been conducted throughout Siberia. The overall objective has been to obtain field and satellite measurements to examine carbon stocks and track changes in forests across this vast area. In this presentation, we discuss some of the finding from this 25+ year collaboration' i.e., observed climate-driven changes within larch communities in northern Siberia. Field measurements and satellite data, including Terra/MODIS, Landsat, GRACE and QuickBird were used for analysis of forest conditions. The following results will be discussed. (1). At the northern limit of larch (Larix gmelinii) range (i.e.,~72°N) tree mortality was observed during the cooling period from the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century. Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) trees re-establishment followed warming temperatures by the middle of the19th century. The current tree line has recovered to the pre-LIA line location although tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower. The mean rate of upward migration was found to be 0.35 m yr-1 (with a range of 0.21-0.58). (2) The migration of the "dark needle conifers" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) into the southern margin zone of larch dominated forest was documented. Meanwhile, within the traditional DNC range decline and mortality of both Siberian pine and fir were observed and attributed, primarily, due to an increased drought. (3) Within Central Siberia larch growth is limited by early summer temperatures and available water from thawing permafrost. Larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), drought (SPEI; r = 0.68-0.82), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), previous year precipitation (r = 0.63) and soil water anomalies (r = 0.79). Larch TRW growth and Gross Primary Productivity

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Science.gov (United States)

Dyderski, Marcin K; Paź, Sonia; Frelich, Lee E; Jagodziński, Andrzej M

2018-03-01

Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using a choice experiment and birder preferences to guide bird-conservation funding.

Science.gov (United States)

Steven, Rochelle; Smart, James C R; Morrison, Clare; Castley, J Guy

2017-08-01

Conservation of biodiversity, including birds, continues to challenge natural-area managers. Stated-preference methods (e.g., choice experiment [CE]) are increasingly used to provide data for valuation of natural ecosystems. We used a CE to calculate birders' willingness to pay for different levels of bioecological attributes (threatened species, endemic species, and diversity) of birding sites with hypothetical entry fees. The CE was delivered at popular birding and avitourism sites in Australia and the United Kingdom. Latent-class modeling results revealed heterogeneous preferences among birders and correspondingly variable willingness to pay. Four clear groups were apparent: quantity-driven birders, special-birds seekers, confused respondents, and price-is-no-object birders. Quantity-driven birders were attracted to sites that deliver high levels of diversity and endemic species for which they were willing to pay $135 and $66 to visit, respectively, above what they were willing to pay to visit a site with low levels of diversity and few endemic and threatened species . Special-bird seekers valued threatened species and high levels of endemic species most (willingness to pay $45 and $46, respectively). Confused respondents' preferences were difficult to determine, but they were the most sensitive to the hypothetical entry fees, unlike the price-is-no-object birders, who were not at all sensitive to cost. Our findings demonstrate that birders are amenable to paying for their preferred birding experience. These payments could provide an alternative source of funding in some avitourism sites on both public and private land. Such alternative revenue streams should be explored and given full consideration in increasingly competitive conservation-financing environments. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Spectral decomposition of regulatory thresholds for climate-driven fluctuations in hydro- and wind power availability

Science.gov (United States)

Wörman, A.; Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Zmijewski, N.; Riml, J.

2017-08-01

Climate-driven fluctuations in the runoff and potential energy of surface water are generally large in comparison to the capacity of hydropower regulation, particularly when hydropower is used to balance the electricity production from covarying renewable energy sources such as wind power. To define the bounds of reservoir storage capacity, we introduce a dedicated reservoir volume that aggregates the storage capacity of several reservoirs to handle runoff from specific watersheds. We show how the storage bounds can be related to a spectrum of the climate-driven modes of variability in water availability and to the covariation between water and wind availability. A regional case study of the entire hydropower system in Sweden indicates that the longest regulation period possible to consider spans from a few days of individual subwatersheds up to several years, with an average limit of a couple of months. Watershed damping of the runoff substantially increases the longest considered regulation period and capacity. The high covariance found between the potential energy of the surface water and wind energy significantly reduces the longest considered regulation period when hydropower is used to balance the fluctuating wind power.

Distributed Energy Planning for Climate Resilience

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stout, Sherry R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Day, Megan H [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lee, Nathan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Holm, Alison [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2018-05-01

At various levels of government across the United States and globally climate resilient solutions are being adopted and implemented. Solutions vary based on predicted hazards, community context, priorities, complexity, and available resources. Lessons are being learned through the implementation process, which can be replicated regardless of level or type of government entity carrying out the resiliency planning. Through a number of analyses and technical support across the world, NREL has learned key lessons related to resilience planning associated with power generation and water distribution. Distributed energy generation is a large factor in building resilience with clean energy technologies and solutions. The technical and policy solutions associated with distributed energy implementation for resilience fall into a few major categories, including spatial diversification, microgrids, water-energy nexus, policy, and redundancy.

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

Science.gov (United States)

Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

2017-06-01

Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires

Data-Driven H∞ Control for Nonlinear Distributed Parameter Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Biao; Huang, Tingwen; Wu, Huai-Ning; Yang, Xiong

2015-11-01

The data-driven H∞ control problem of nonlinear distributed parameter systems is considered in this paper. An off-policy learning method is developed to learn the H∞ control policy from real system data rather than the mathematical model. First, Karhunen-Loève decomposition is used to compute the empirical eigenfunctions, which are then employed to derive a reduced-order model (ROM) of slow subsystem based on the singular perturbation theory. The H∞ control problem is reformulated based on the ROM, which can be transformed to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs (HJI) equation, theoretically. To learn the solution of the HJI equation from real system data, a data-driven off-policy learning approach is proposed based on the simultaneous policy update algorithm and its convergence is proved. For implementation purpose, a neural network (NN)- based action-critic structure is developed, where a critic NN and two action NNs are employed to approximate the value function, control, and disturbance policies, respectively. Subsequently, a least-square NN weight-tuning rule is derived with the method of weighted residuals. Finally, the developed data-driven off-policy learning approach is applied to a nonlinear diffusion-reaction process, and the obtained results demonstrate its effectiveness.

Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

2016-12-01

The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana M. Vale

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Background A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. Methods We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. Results We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Discussion Our results indicate that: (i planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2016-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author).

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2014-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author)

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2015-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author)

Equity in climate-economy scenarios: the importance of subnational income distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, Paul

2009-01-01

It is widely accepted that climate change raises equity considerations, and this has been addressed in various explicit and implicit ways in scenario-based climate and climate-policy research. In this paper I look in particular at the IPCC's well-known 'Special Report on Emissions Scenarios', in which equity is primarily quantified as the distribution of income between countries, and highlight the need for more explicit treatment of equity both within and across national borders. I apply an existing method for modeling subnational income distributions and show that this affects the results of welfare calculations of the type used in economic analyses of climate policy. Additionally, I suggest ways in which this kind of equity analysis could be applied to questions that address broader considerations of climate policy and development, such as burden sharing in the allocation of obligations, and conclude with remarks that frame the scenario development process in the context of what I call 'the contested storyline of the present'.

Advancing migratory bird conservation and management by using radar: An interagency collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Ruth, Janet M.; Barrow, Wylie C.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Diehl, Robert H.; Manville, Albert; Green, Michael T.; Krueper, David J.; Johnston, Scott

2005-01-01

Migratory birds face many changes to the landscapes they traverse and the habitats they use. Wind turbines and communications towers, which pose hazards to birds and bats in flight, are being erected or proposed across the United States and offshore. Human activities can also destroy or threaten habitats critical to birds during migratory passage, and climate change appears to be altering migratory patterns. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and other agencies are under increasing pressure to identify and evaluate movement patterns and habitats used during migration and other times.

Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williamson, James [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States); Aldrich, Robb [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States)

2015-08-19

Traditionally, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have been used more often in warmer climates; however, some new ASHPs are gaining ground in colder areas. These systems operate at subzero (Fahrenheit) temperatures and many do not include backup electric resistance elements. There are still uncertainties, however, about capacity and efficiency in cold weather. Also, questions such as “how cold is too cold?” do not have clear answers. These uncertainties could lead to skepticism among homeowners; poor energy savings estimates; suboptimal system selection by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning contractors; and inconsistent energy modeling. In an effort to better understand and characterize the heating performance of these units in cold climates, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven, ductless ASHPs across the Northeast. Operating data were collected for three Mitsubishi FE18 units, three Mitsubishi FE12 units, and one Fujitsu 15RLS2 unit. The intent of this research was to assess heat output, electricity consumption, and coefficients of performance (COPs) at various temperatures and load conditions. This assessment was accomplished with long- and short-term tests that measured power consumption; supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures; and airflow through the indoor fan coil.

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

2016-10-01

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

Science.gov (United States)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; van Rooijen, Arnold; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia

2015-01-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

Science.gov (United States)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; Rooijen, Arnold; Cheriton, Olivia; Dongeren, Ap

2015-08-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

A Data-Driven Stochastic Reactive Power Optimization Considering Uncertainties in Active Distribution Networks and Decomposition Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ding, Tao; Yang, Qingrun; Yang, Yongheng

2018-01-01

To address the uncertain output of distributed generators (DGs) for reactive power optimization in active distribution networks, the stochastic programming model is widely used. The model is employed to find an optimal control strategy with minimum expected network loss while satisfying all......, in this paper, a data-driven modeling approach is introduced to assume that the probability distribution from the historical data is uncertain within a confidence set. Furthermore, a data-driven stochastic programming model is formulated as a two-stage problem, where the first-stage variables find the optimal...... control for discrete reactive power compensation equipment under the worst probability distribution of the second stage recourse. The second-stage variables are adjusted to uncertain probability distribution. In particular, this two-stage problem has a special structure so that the second-stage problem...

Climate and waterfowl populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diamond, A.W.; Brace, R.K.

1991-01-01

Climate affects waterfowl populations through a variety of pathways, categorized as direct impacts (physiological effects on the bird itself), and indirect, acting through the bird's habitats and changes in land use practices. Graphs are presented of wetland use by Prairie ducks, duck use by pothole size and class, duck use by wetland type, wetland use by grebes, numbers of nongame birds, wetland use by shorebirds and wetland use by blackbirds. Wetlands are classified according to the following scheme: ephemeral and temporary, which are shallow and are first to thaw in the spring; seasonal, which become available later in the year and last longer; semipermanent wetlands, which hold water well into late summer; permanent wetlands, which are relatively less productive than other types, and which are mainly used as staging habitat for fall migration; and alkali wetlands, which are relatively little used. The types of wetland available to waterfowl and other migratory birds are as important as numbers and total area. In general, smaller wetlands are more important than larger, more permanent water bodies. Small, impermanent wetlands are more vulnerable to climatic warming and drying, and species such as waterfowl and migratory birds in general are at great risk from further drying of the hydrological regime of the Prairies and Great Plains. 12 refs., 9 figs

Effect of climatic changes on the prevalence of zoonotic diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neelam Sachan and V.P.Singh

Full Text Available Combustion of fossil fuels and human activities has led to sharp increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These climate changes have tremendous effect on prevalence of zoonotic diseases. The changes in climate may increase the insect vectors, prolong transmission cycles or increase the importation of vectors or animal reservoirs. It may also have an adverse effect on biodiversity, distribution of animals and microflora which may lead to emergence of zoonotic disease outbreaks. A historical perspective on major vector-borne diseases such as arboviral encephalitides, dengue fever and Rift Valley fever, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, malaria, plague, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and dengue fever have been shown to have a distinct seasonal pattern and in some instances their frequency has been shown to be weather sensitive. Because of the sensitivities of the vectors and animal hosts of these diseases to climactic factors, climate change-driven ecological changes such as variations in rainfall and temperature could significantly alter the range, seasonality and human incidence of many zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. The evolution of emerging zoonotic diseases globally during the period 1996 to 2007 was Ebola haemorrhagic fever, Rift Valley fever, avian influenza H5N1, plague and Nipah virus. Whereas, bird flu and swine flu like diseases are still creating havoc for human and animal health worldwide. It is a today’s and tomorrow’s demand that interdisciplinary communication between health professionals, veterinarians, environmental scientists, ecologists, geographers and economists seeking to understand climate change will be key to protecting people in India and worldwide against these threats. Rigorous cross-disciplinary studies using a variety of methodological tools will enable us to predict the transmission dynamics of diseases under different climate scenarios and estimate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies. In this

Digital Accessible Knowledge and well-inventoried sites for birds in Mexico: baseline sites for measuring faunistic change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Townsend Peterson

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background Faunal change is a basic and fundamental element in ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology, yet vanishingly few detailed studies have documented such changes rigorously over decadal time scales. This study responds to that gap in knowledge, providing a detailed analysis of Digital Accessible Knowledge of the birds of Mexico, designed to marshal DAK to identify sites that were sampled and inventoried rigorously prior to the beginning of major global climate change (1980. Methods We accumulated DAK records for Mexican birds from all relevant online biodiversity data portals. After extensive cleaning steps, we calculated completeness indices for each 0.05° pixel across the country; we also detected ‘hotspots’ of sampling, and calculated completeness indices for these broader areas as well. Sites were designated as well-sampled if they had completeness indices above 80% and >200 associated DAK records. Results We identified 100 individual pixels and 20 broader ‘hotspots’ of sampling that were demonstrably well-inventoried prior to 1980. These sites are catalogued and documented to promote and enable resurvey efforts that can document events of avifaunal change (and non-change across the country on decadal time scales. Conclusions Development of repeated surveys for many sites across Mexico, and particularly for sites for which historical surveys document their avifaunas prior to major climate change processes, would pay rich rewards in information about distributional dynamics of Mexican birds.

New software methods in radar ornithology using WSR-88D weather data and potential application to monitoring effects of climate change on bird migration

Science.gov (United States)

Mead, Reginald; Paxton, John; Sojda, Richard S.; Swayne, David A.; Yang, Wanhong; Voinov, A.A.; Rizzoli, A.; Filatova, T.

2010-01-01

Radar ornithology has provided tools for studying the movement of birds, especially related to migration. Researchers have presented qualitative evidence suggesting that birds, or at least migration events, can be identified using large broad scale radars such as the WSR-88D used in the NEXRAD weather surveillance system. This is potentially a boon for ornithologists because such data cover a large portion of the United States, are constantly being produced, are freely available, and have been archived since the early 1990s. A major obstacle to this research, however, has been that identifying birds in NEXRAD data has required a trained technician to manually inspect a graphically rendered radar sweep. A single site completes one volume scan every five to ten minutes, producing over 52,000 volume scans in one year. This is an immense amount of data, and manual classification is infeasible. We have developed a system that identifies biological echoes using machine learning techniques. This approach begins with training data using scans that have been classified by experts, or uses bird data collected in the field. The data are preprocessed to ensure quality and to emphasize relevant features. A classifier is then trained using this data and cross validation is used to measure performance. We compared neural networks, naive Bayes, and k-nearest neighbor classifiers. Empirical evidence is provided showing that this system can achieve classification accuracies in the 80th to 90th percentile. We propose to apply these methods to studying bird migration phenology and how it is affected by climate variability and change over multiple temporal scales.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami.

Science.gov (United States)

Ofori, Benjamin Y; Stow, Adam J; Baumgartner, John B; Beaumont, Linda J

2017-01-01

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species' range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin Y Ofori

Full Text Available The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070 and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species' range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.

Impact of wind-driven rain on historic brick wall buildings in a moderately cold and humid climate: Numerical analyses of mould growth risk, indoor climate and energy consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

2009-01-01

This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...... response, mould growth at interior wall surfaces, indoor climate and energy consumption. First the WDR load oil the facades of a 4 m x 4 m x 10 m tower is determined. Then the hygrothermal behaviour of the brick walls is analysed oil a horizontal slice through the tower. The simulations demonstrate...

The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

2013-08-01

A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

2017-08-01

The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

Science.gov (United States)

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Climate variability and the energetic pathways of evolution: the origin of endothermy in mammals and birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Portner, Hans O

2004-01-01

Large-scale climate oscillations in earth's history have influenced the directions of evolution, last but not least, through mass extinction events. This analysis tries to identify some unifying forces behind the course of evolution that favored an increase in organismic complexity and performance, paralleled by an increase in energy turnover, and finally led to endothermy. The analysis builds on the recent concept of oxygen-limited thermal tolerance and on the hypothesis that unifying principles exist in the temperature-dependent biochemical design of the eukaryotic cell in animals. The comparison of extant water-breathing and air-breathing animal species from various climates provides a cause-and-effect understanding of the trade-offs and constraints in thermal adaptation and their energetic consequences. It is hypothesized that the high costs of functional adaptation to fluctuating temperatures, especially in the cold (cold eurythermy), cause an increase in energy turnover and, at the same time, mobility and agility. These costs are associated with elevated mitochondrial capacities at minimized levels of activation enthalpies for proton leakage. Cold eurythermy is seen as a precondition for the survival of evolutionary crises elicited by repeated cooling events during extreme climate fluctuations. The costs of cold eurythermy appear as the single most important reason why metazoan evolution led to life forms with high energy turnover. They also explain why dinosaurs were able to live in subpolar climates. Finally, they give insight into the pathways, benefits, and trade-offs involved in the evolution of constant, elevated body temperature maintained by endothermy. Eurythermy, which encompasses cold tolerance, is thus hypothesized to be the "missing link" between ectothermy and endothermy. Body temperatures between 32 degrees and 42 degrees C in mammals and birds then result from trade-offs between the limiting capacities of ventilation and circulation and the

Arthropods and associated arthropod-borne diseases transmitted by migrating birds. The case of ticks and tick-borne pathogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Sparagano, Olivier; George, David; Giangaspero, Annunziata; Špitalská, Eva

2015-09-30

Geographic spread of parasites and pathogens poses a constant risk to animal health and welfare, particularly given that climate change is expected to potentially expand appropriate ranges for many key species. The spread of deleterious organisms via trade routes and human travelling is relatively closely controlled, though represents only one possible means of parasite/pathogen distribution. The transmission via natural parasite/pathogen movement between geographic locales, is far harder to manage. Though the extent of such movement may be limited by the relative inability of many parasites and pathogens to actively migrate, passive movement over long distances may still occur via migratory hosts. This paper reviews the potential role of migrating birds in the transfer of ectoparasites and pathogens between geographic locales, focusing primarily on ticks. Bird-tick-pathogen relationships are considered, and evidence provided of long-range parasite/pathogen transfer from one location to another during bird migration events. As shown in this paper not only many different arthropod species are carried by migrating birds but consequently these pests carry many different pathogens species which can be transmitted to the migrating birds or to other animal species when those arthropods are dropping during these migrations. Data available from the literature are provided highlighting the need to understand better dissemination paths and disease epidemiology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Columbia River ESI: BIRDS (Bird Polygons)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains sensitive biological resource data for wading birds, shorebirds, waterfowl, diving birds, seabirds, passerine birds, gulls, and terns in...

Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Todd, Andrew S; Manning, Andrew H; Verplanck, Philip L; Crouch, Caitlin; McKnight, Diane M; Dunham, Ryan

2012-09-04

A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100-400% (400-2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO(4) and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2-1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon Mark Scriber

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Scriber, Jon Mark

2013-12-24

Comprising 50%-75% of the world's fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including "invasive species" in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. "Invasive genes" (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. "Genetic rescue" via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced "reshuffling" (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes may become

Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

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Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

2015-04-01

Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

2016-03-01

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2013-01-01

Lake sediments are excellent archives of climate and environmental change. Lakes typically exhibit high sedimentation rates, contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible for study. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to recontsruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sedimentary cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author). 31 refs., 11 figs.

Response of spatial vegetation distribution in China to climate changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Shrestha, Nawal; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Tang, Zhiyao; Wang, Zhiheng

2017-01-01

Analyzing how climate change affects vegetation distribution is one of the central issues of global change ecology as this has important implications for the carbon budget of terrestrial vegetation. Mapping vegetation distribution under historical climate scenarios is essential for understanding the response of vegetation distribution to future climatic changes. The reconstructions of palaeovegetation based on pollen data provide a useful method to understand the relationship between climate and vegetation distribution. However, this method is limited in time and space. Here, using species distribution model (SDM) approaches, we explored the climatic determinants of contemporary vegetation distribution and reconstructed the distribution of Chinese vegetation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) and Middle-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP). The dynamics of vegetation distribution since the LGM reconstructed by SDMs were largely consistent with those based on pollen data, suggesting that the SDM approach is a useful tool for studying historical vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change across time and space. Comparison between the modeled contemporary potential natural vegetation distribution and the observed contemporary distribution suggests that temperate deciduous forests, subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests, temperate deciduous shrublands and temperate steppe have low range fillings and are strongly influenced by human activities. In general, the Tibetan Plateau, North and Northeast China, and the areas near the 30°N in Central and Southeast China appeared to have experienced the highest turnover in vegetation due to climate change from the LGM to the present. PMID:28426780

Evolution of the earliest horses driven by climate change in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Science.gov (United States)

Secord, Ross; Bloch, Jonathan I; Chester, Stephen G B; Boyer, Doug M; Wood, Aaron R; Wing, Scott L; Kraus, Mary J; McInerney, Francesca A; Krigbaum, John

2012-02-24

Body size plays a critical role in mammalian ecology and physiology. Previous research has shown that many mammals became smaller during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but the timing and magnitude of that change relative to climate change have been unclear. A high-resolution record of continental climate and equid body size change shows a directional size decrease of ~30% over the first ~130,000 years of the PETM, followed by a ~76% increase in the recovery phase of the PETM. These size changes are negatively correlated with temperature inferred from oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth and were probably driven by shifts in temperature and possibly high atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. These findings could be important for understanding mammalian evolutionary responses to future global warming.

Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models

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Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

2016-01-01

Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Science.gov (United States)

Glotter, Michael J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Elliott, Joshua W.

2015-01-01

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

[Altitudinal distribution, richness and composition of bird assemblages in a mountainous region in Southern Nayarit, Mexico].

Science.gov (United States)

Jaime-Escalante, Nidia Gissell; Figueroa-Esquivel, Elsa Margarita; Villaseñor Gómez, José Fernando; Jacobo-Sapien, Edwin Alberto; Puebla-Olivares, Fernando

2016-12-01

Elevation gradient studies have strengthened the evaluation of changes in richness and composition of bird assemblages. They also provide information on environmental variables that determine bird distribution, and the variables that define their population structure. Our aim was to describe their variation through an elevational cline in Southern Nayarit, Mexico. To analyze the behavior of richness across the gradient, we gathered information through point counts in nine elevational intervals (300 m from each other) from sea level to 2 700 m of elevation. With a standardized sampling effort, we produced rarefaction curves and analyzed changes in species composition by hierarchical classification using the TWINSPAN technique. In order to identify variables associated with richness changes, we examined the effect of precipitation and habitat structure via regression trees. An analysis of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) was implemented with the purpose to determine if the changes in composition correspond to changes in vegetation types. Species richness varied significantly across the gradient: high in the lower parts of the gradient, reached its peak in the middle, and decreased monotonically with elevation. Species responded to changes in the cline and were grouped in three elevational zones. Analyses suggest that changes in richness and species composition are influenced by vegetation, its structure and precipitation regime, as well as various aspects related to habitat features and disturbance. These aspects should be taken into account in order to design appropriate strategies for the conservation of the birds of Nayarit.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham’s skink, Egernia cunninghami

Science.gov (United States)

Stow, Adam J.; Baumgartner, John B.; Beaumont, Linda J.

2017-01-01

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming “unlimited” or “no” dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham’s skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020–2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23–63% at 1 km and 26–64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species’ range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change. PMID:28873398

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2015-03-10

The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2015-01-01

The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas

2012-01-01

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and

Deformation Measurement of a Driven Pile Using Distributed Fibre-optic Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Monsberger, Christoph; Woschitz, Helmut; Hayden, Martin

2016-03-01

New developments in distributed fibre-optic sensing allow the measurement of strain with a very high precision of about 1 µm / m and a spatial resolution of 10 millimetres or even better. Thus, novel applications in several scientific fields may be realised, e. g. in structural monitoring or soil and rock mechanics. Especially due to the embedding capability of fibre-optic sensors, fibre-optic systems provide a valuable extension to classical geodetic measurement methods, which are limited to the surface in most cases. In this paper, we report about the application of an optical backscatter reflectometer for deformation measurements along a driven pile. In general, pile systems are used in civil engineering as an efficient and economic foundation of buildings and other structures. Especially the length of the piles is crucial for the final loading capacity. For optimization purposes, the interaction between the driven pile and the subsurface material is investigated using pile testing methods. In a field trial, we used a distributed fibre-optic sensing system for measuring the strain below the surface of an excavation pit in order to derive completely new information. Prior to the field trial, the fibre-optic sensor was investigated in the laboratory. In addition to the results of these lab studies, we briefly describe the critical process of field installation and show the most significant results from the field trial, where the pile was artificially loaded up to 800 kN. As far as we know, this is the first time that the strain is monitored along a driven pile with such a high spatial resolution.

The Bird Community Resilience Index: a novel remote sensing-based biodiversity variable for quantifying ecological integrity

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, N. L.; Wilsey, C.; Burkhalter, C.; Trusty, B.; Langham, G.

2017-12-01

Scalable indicators of biodiversity change are critical to reporting overall progress towards national and global targets for biodiversity conservation (e.g. Aichi Targets) and sustainable development (SDGs). These essential biodiversity variables capitalize on new remote sensing technologies and growth of community science participation. Here we present a novel biodiversity metric quantifying resilience of bird communities and, by extension, of their associated ecological communities. This metric adds breadth to the community composition class of essential biodiversity variables that track trends in condition and vulnerability of ecological communities. We developed this index for use with North American grassland birds, a guild that has experienced stronger population declines than any other avian guild, in order to evaluate gains from the implementation of best management practices on private lands. The Bird Community Resilience Index was designed to incorporate the full suite of species-specific responses to management actions, and be flexible enough to work across broad climatic, land cover, and bird community gradients (i.e., grasslands from northern Mexico through Canada). The Bird Community Resilience Index consists of four components: density estimates of grassland and arid land birds; weighting based on conservation need; a functional diversity metric to incorporate resiliency of bird communities and their ecosystems; and a standardized scoring system to control for interannual variation caused by extrinsic factors (e.g., climate). We present an analysis of bird community resilience across ranches in the Northern Great Plains region of the United States. As predicted, Bird Community Resilience was higher in lands implementing best management practices than elsewhere. While developed for grassland birds, this metric holds great potential for use as an Essential Biodiversity Variable for community composition in a variety of habitat.

Circadian flight schedules in night-migrating birds caught on migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Coppack, Timothy; Becker, Simon F; Becker, Philipp J J

2008-12-23

Many species of migratory birds migrate in a series of solitary nocturnal flights. Between flights, they stop to rest and refuel for the next segment of their journey. The mechanism controlling this behaviour has long remained elusive. Here, we show that wild-caught migratory redstarts (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) are consistent in their flight scheduling. An advanced videographic system enabled us to determine the precise timing of flight activity in redstarts caught at a northern European stopover site during their return trip from Africa. Birds were held captive for three days in the absence of photoperiodic cues (constant dim light) and under permanent food availability. Despite the absence of external temporal cues, birds showed clear bimodal activity patterns: intense nocturnal activity alternating with diurnal foraging and resting periods. The onset of their migratory activity coincided with the time of local sunset and was individually consistent on consecutive nights. The data demonstrate that night-migrating birds are driven by autonomous circadian clocks entrained by sunset cues. This timekeeping system is probably the key factor in the overall control of nocturnal songbird migration.

Distribution and habitat of brazilian-pine according to global climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Silveira Wrege

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol. O. Kuntze., also known as brazilian-pine, is a forest native species from Brazil. A. angustifolia is more vulnerable to global climate change, considering it is living in cold and humid mountain regions from southern and southeastern Brazil. Among the native Brazilian forest species, it presents one of the greatest growth and genetic gain potential. It shows excellent wood quality and can still be used in human and animal food, presenting great economic, social and environmental value. In order to determine current distribution of the species and better know its habitat, we worked in the regions representing the borders of natural occurrence, identifying populations and getting trees altitude and geographycal position. Field information along with secondary data from the Environmental Information Center (CRIA were used to map current distribution of brazilian-pine and to project the distribution in the next decades, with the projection of future climate scenarios. Mapping studies of ecological niches in present and future climate scenarios characterizing the environments in which they are living is essential for a better understanding of the risks of species extinction and which mitigating measures could be adequate to reduce the impacts of global climate change on species, thus contributing to the conservation and knowledge of this important species.

A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pasgaard, Maya; Strange, Niels

2013-01-01

investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates...... the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change...... the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge...

Invasive alien birds in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fox, Anthony David; Heldbjerg, Henning; Nyegaard, Timme

2015-01-01

Avian Introduced Alien Species (IAS) constitute a threat to the integrity of native biodiversity, the economy and human health, so here we briefly review some of the problems posed by such species around the world in relation to such bird species in Denmark. A new European Union Regulation...... on Invasive Alien Species implemented in January 2015 establishes a framework for actions to combat alien species, which requires Member States to prevent the spread of alien species, provide early warning and rapid responses to their presence and management of established alien species where they occur. We...... show the importance of mechanisms such as DOF’s (Dansk Ornitologisk Forening, BirdLife Denmark) Atlas project, Common Bird Census (breeding and wintering species) and DOFbasen to contribute data on the current geographical and numerical distribution of the few serious alien avian species already...

Invasive alien birds in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nyegaard, Timme; Heldbjerg, Henning; Fox, Anthony David

Avian Introduced Alien Species (IAS) constitute a threat to the integrity of native biodiversity, the economy and human health, so here we briefly review some of the problems posed by such species around the world in relation to bird species in Denmark. A new European Union Regulation on Invasive...... Alien Species implemented in January 2015 requires a framework for actions to combat alien species, which requires Member States to prevent the spread of alien species, provide early warning and rapid responses to their presence and management of established alien species where they occur. We show...... the importance of mechanisms such as DOFs (Danish Ornithological Society, BirdLife Denmark) Atlas project, Common Bird Monitoring (breeding and wintering species) and DOFbasen to contribute data on the current geographical and numerical distribution of the few serious alien avian species already present...

A comparative analysis of the influence of weather on the flight altitudes of birds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shamoun-Baranes, J.; van Loon, E.; van Gasteren, H.; van Belle, J.; Bouten, W.; Buurma, L.

2006-01-01

Birds pose a serious risk to flight safety worldwide. A Bird Avoidance Model (BAM) is being developed in the Netherlands to reduce the risk of bird-aircraft collisions. In order to develop a temporally and spatially dynamic model of bird densities, data are needed on the flight-altitude distribution

Species distributions and climate change - linking the past and the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levinsky, Irina

Climate change is predicted to have a marked impact on biodiversity, and changes in the distributions of numerous species have already been correlated with ongoing climate change. Climatic oscillations, however, were also the rule during the Pleistocene, and a look to the past may therefore shed ...... conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, explore surrogates for the dispersal ability of African starlings and critically assess the tools I use and the assumptions behind them....

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akiko Hirata

Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in Europe under present and future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuck, Gill; Glendining, Margaret J.; Smith, Pete; Wattenbach, Martin; House, Jo I.

2006-01-01

We have derived maps of the potential distribution of 26 promising bioenergy crops in Europe, based on simple rules for suitable climatic conditions and elevation. Crops suitable for temperate and Mediterranean climates were selected from four groups: oilseeds (e.g. oilseed rape, sunflower), starch crops (e.g. potatoes), cereals (e.g. barley) and solid biofuel crops (e.g. sorghum, Miscanthus). The impact of climate change under different scenarios and GCMs on the potential future distribution of these crops was determined, based on predicted future climatic conditions. Climate scenarios based on four IPCC SRES emission scenarios, A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, implemented by four global climate models, HadCM3, CSIRO2, PCM and CGCM2, were used. The potential distribution of temperate oilseeds, cereals, starch crops and solid biofuels is predicted to increase in northern Europe by the 2080s, due to increasing temperatures, and decrease in southern Europe (e.g. Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and Greece) due to increased drought. Mediterranean oil and solid biofuel crops, currently restricted to southern Europe, are predicted to extend further north due to higher summer temperatures. Effects become more pronounced with time and are greatest under the A1FI scenario and for models predicting the greatest climate forcing. Different climate models produce different regional patterns. All models predict that bioenergy crop production in Spain is especially vulnerable to climate change, with many temperate crops predicted to decline dramatically by the 2080s. The choice of bioenergy crops in southern Europe will be severely reduced in future unless measures are taken to adapt to climate change. (author)

Bird numbers and distributions in the Horns Rev offshore wind farm area. Annual status report 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krag Petersen, I.

2005-07-01

This report presents data from four aerial surveys of birds in the Horns Rev wind farm area in 2004. Three surveys from the winter and spring of 2004 are thoroughly reported here. The fourth survey of 9 September 2004 is reported in general terms, but not included in presentations of distribution and effect analyses of the wind farm. Data from this survey will be thoroughly dealt with in a future report. Including the four surveys of 2004, a total of 29 surveys have been performed in that area since August 1999. (au)

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Data-driven modeling and real-time distributed control for energy efficient manufacturing systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou, Jing; Chang, Qing; Arinez, Jorge; Xiao, Guoxian

2017-01-01

As manufacturers face the challenges of increasing global competition and energy saving requirements, it is imperative to seek out opportunities to reduce energy waste and overall cost. In this paper, a novel data-driven stochastic manufacturing system modeling method is proposed to identify and predict energy saving opportunities and their impact on production. A real-time distributed feedback production control policy, which integrates the current and predicted system performance, is established to improve the overall profit and energy efficiency. A case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control policy. - Highlights: • A data-driven stochastic manufacturing system model is proposed. • Real-time system performance and energy saving opportunity identification method is developed. • Prediction method for future potential system performance and energy saving opportunity is developed. • A real-time distributed feedback control policy is established to improve energy efficiency and overall system profit.

Explaining the species richness of birds along a subtropical elevational gradient in the Hengduan Mountains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Yongjie; Colwell, Robert K.; Rahbek, Carsten

2013-01-01

AimTo document the species richness pattern of birds in the Hengduan Mountains and to understand its causes. LocationHengduan Mountains, China. MethodsSpecies richness of 738 breeding bird species was calculated for each 100-m elevational band along a gradient from 100 to 6000m a.s.l. Climate data...... were compiled based on monthly records from 182 meteorological stations in the Hengduan Mountains from 1959 to 2004. We calculated the planimetric area, predicted richness under geometric constraints, three-year average NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and EVI (enhanced vegetation index...... that climatic and energy factors correlate well with the richness pattern of birds, and that on the surveyed subtropical mountain, the elevational bands with highest seasonality harbour fewer species than areas with less seasonal variation in temperature. The results, however, vary somewhat among taxonomic...

[Response of forest bird communities to forest gap in winter in southwestern China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-Dong; Wu, Ying-Huan; Lu, Zhou; Jiang, Guang-Wei; Zhou, Fang

2013-06-01

Although forest gap ecology is an important field of study, research remains limited. By plot setting and point counted observation, the response of birds to forest gaps in winter as well as bird distribution patterns in forest gaps and intact canopies were studied in a north tropical monsoon forest of southwestern China from November 2011 to February 2012 in the Fangcheng Golden Camellia National Nature Reserve, Guangxi. The regression equation of bird species diversity to habitat factor was Y1=0.611+0.002 X13+0.043 X2+0.002 X5-0.003 X8+0.006 X10+0.008 X1 and the regression equation of bird species dominance index to habitat factor was Y3=0.533+0.001 X13+0.019 X2+0.002 X3-0.017 X4+0.002 X1. There were 45 bird species (2 orders and 13 families) recorded in the forest gap, accounting for 84.9% of all birds (n=45), with an average of 9.6 species (range: 2-22). Thirty-nine bird species (5 orders and 14 families) were recorded in non-gap areas, accounting for 73.6% of all birds (n=39), with an average of 5.3 species (range: 1-12). These results suggested that gap size, arbor average height (10 m from gap margin), arbor quantity (10 m from gap margin), shrub quantity (10 m from gap margin), herbal average coverage (1 m from gap margin) and bare land ratio were the key forest gap factors that influenced bird diversities. On the whole, bird diversity in the forest gap was greater than in the intact canopy. Spatial distributions in the forest gaps were also observed in the bird community. Most birds foraged in the "middle" and "canopy" layers in the vertical stratification. In addition, "nearly from" and "close from" contained more birds in relation to horizontal stratification. Feeding niche differentiation was suggested as the main reason for these distribution patterns.

Determination of Habitat Requirements For Birds in Suburban Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Jack Ward Thomas; Richard M. DeGraaf; Joseph C. Mawson

1977-01-01

Songbird populations can be related to habitat components by a method that allows the simultaneous determination of habitat requirements for a variety of species . Through correlation and multiple-regression analyses, 10 bird species were studied in a suburban habitat, which was stratified according to human density. Variables used to account for bird distribution...

Efficient and Flexible Climate Analysis with Python in a Cloud-Based Distributed Computing Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Gannon, C.

2017-12-01

As climate models become progressively more advanced, and spatial resolution further improved through various downscaling projects, climate projections at a local level are increasingly insightful and valuable. However, the raw size of climate datasets presents numerous hurdles for analysts wishing to develop customized climate risk metrics or perform site-specific statistical analysis. Four Twenty Seven, a climate risk consultancy, has implemented a Python-based distributed framework to analyze large climate datasets in the cloud. With the freedom afforded by efficiently processing these datasets, we are able to customize and continually develop new climate risk metrics using the most up-to-date data. Here we outline our process for using Python packages such as XArray and Dask to evaluate netCDF files in a distributed framework, StarCluster to operate in a cluster-computing environment, cloud computing services to access publicly hosted datasets, and how this setup is particularly valuable for generating climate change indicators and performing localized statistical analysis.

Research and management priorities for Hawai‘i forest birds

Science.gov (United States)

Paxton, Eben H.; Laut, Megan; Vetter, J.P.; Kendall, Steve J.

2018-01-01

Hawai‘i’s forest birds face a number of conservation challenges that, if unaddressed, will likely lead to the extinction of multiple species in the coming decades. Threats include habitat loss, invasive plants, non-native predators, and introduced diseases. Climate change is predicted to increase the geographic extent and intensity of these threats, adding urgency to implementation of tractable conservation strategies. We present a set of actionable research and management approaches, identified by conservation practitioners in Hawai’i, that will be critical for the conservation of Hawaiian forest birds in the coming years. We also summarize recent progress on these conservation priorities. The threats facing Hawai‘i’s forest birds are not unique to Hawai‘i, and successful conservation strategies developed in Hawai‘i can serve as a model for other imperiled communities around the world, especially on islands.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

Science.gov (United States)

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Preferred temperature and thermal breadth of birds wintering in peninsular Spain: the limited effect of temperature on species distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis M. Carrascal

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Background. The availability of environmental energy, as measured by temperature, is expected to limit the abundance and distribution of endotherms wintering at temperate latitudes. A prediction of this hypothesis is that birds should attain their highest abundances in warmer areas. However, there may be a spatial mismatch between species preferred habitats and species preferred temperatures, so some species might end-up wintering in sub-optimal thermal environments. Methods. We model the influence of minimum winter temperature on the relative abundance of 106 terrestrial bird species wintering in peninsular Spain, at 10 ×10 km2 resolution, using 95%-quantile regressions. We analyze general trends across species on the shape of the response curves, the environmental preferred temperature (at which the species abundance is maximized, the mean temperature in the area of distribution and the thermal breadth (area under the abundance-temperature curve. Results. Temperature explains a low proportion of variation in abundance. The most significant effect is on limiting the maximum potential abundance of species. Considering this upper-limit response, there is a large interspecific variability on the thermal preferences and specialization of species. Overall, there is a preponderance of positive relationships between species abundance and temperature; on average, species attain their maximum abundances in areas 1.9 °C warmer than the average temperature available in peninsular Spain. The mean temperature in the area of distribution is lower than the thermal preferences of the species. Discussion. Many species prefer the warmest areas to overwinter, which suggests that temperature imposes important restrictions to birds wintering in the Iberian Peninsula. However, one third of species overwinter in locations colder than their thermal preferences, probably reflecting the interaction between habitat and thermal requirements. There is a high inter

Youth Climate Summits: Empowering & Engaging Youth to Lead on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

The Wild Center's Youth Climate Summits is a program that engages youth in climate literacy from knowledge and understanding to developing action in their schools and communities. Each Youth Climate Summit is a one to three day event that brings students and teachers together to learn about climate change science, impacts and solutions at a global and local level. Through speakers, workshops and activities, the Summit culminates in a student-driven Climate Action Plan that can be brought back to schools and communities. The summits have been found to be powerful vehicles for inspiration, learning, community engagement and youth leadership development. Climate literacy with a focus on local climate impacts and solutions is a key component of the Youth Climate Summit. The project-based learning surrounding the creation of a unique, student driven, sustainability and Climate Action Plan promotes leadership skills applicable and the tools necessary for a 21st Century workforce. Student driven projects range from school gardens and school energy audits to working with NYS officials to commit to going 100% renewable electricty at the three state-owned downhill ski facilities. The summit model has been scaled and replicated in other communities in New York State, Vermont, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states as well as internationally in Finland, Germany and Sri Lanka.

Waterbird flight initiation distances at Barberspan Bird Sanctuary, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carina Coetzer

2017-05-01

Full Text Available With tourism in South Africa expanding, the number of avitourists increases. The increase in infrastructure and human activities in protected areas, if not managed properly, can be harmful to birds. Flight initiation distances (FID can be used as a method to monitor habituation to disturbances. This study was performed at the Barberspan Bird Sanctuary, North West province, South Africa, to determine the levels of habituation among waterbirds and make appropriate recommendations regarding the management of the reserve. Our results indicated a 0.29 m increase in FID per gram reported mean biomass. Compared with conspecific or congeneric birds from Australia, Europe and North America, South African birds have relatively larger FIDs to human disturbance, which may indicate lower habituation. We also calculated buffer zones based on the maximum FID of the waterbirds for three mass groups. These buffer zones were then matched with the spatial distribution of the birds along the shoreline. We recommend that the mean FID for the blacksmith lapwing, Vanellus armatus (62 m, can be used as approach distance outside the breeding season in areas where the birds are sparsely distributed and 104 m during the breeding season in breeding areas. A large buffer of 200 m is suggested for areas with threatened, sensitive and skittish species. However, it is still preferable for avitourists to use the bird hides along the shores. Conservation implications: This study provides information for conservation management at Barberspan, based on typical birder activity. Smaller birds would need smaller buffer zones, while larger birds need much greater distances from observers to minimise disturbance. Similar studies can be applied elsewhere.

The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James O Vafidis

Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014. Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites. The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net

Lognormal firing rate distribution reveals prominent fluctuation-driven regime in spinal motor networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Peter C.; Berg, Rune W.

2016-01-01

fraction that operates within either a ‘mean-driven’ or a ‘fluctuation–driven’ regime. Fluctuation-driven neurons have a ‘supralinear’ input-output curve, which enhances sensitivity, whereas the mean-driven regime reduces sensitivity. We find a rich diversity of firing rates across the neuronal population...... as reflected in a lognormal distribution and demonstrate that half of the neurons spend at least 50 %% of the time in the ‘fluctuation–driven’ regime regardless of behavior. Because of the disparity in input–output properties for these two regimes, this fraction may reflect a fine trade–off between stability...

Rapid assessment of endemic bird areas in Michoacan, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Gilberto Chavez-Leon; Deborah M. Finch

1999-01-01

Non-sustainable land use practices in the state of Michoacan, Mexico, have perturbed endemic bird h~bitats for several decades. Endemic birds have a restricted geographic and ecological distribution. This feature makes them suitable to be used as indicators of biological diversity and environmental perturbation. Forty-one Mexican endemic species have been recorded in...