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Sample records for climate variability niche

  1. Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Stephen T; Betancourt, Julio L; Booth, Robert K; Gray, Stephen T

    2009-11-17

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

  2. Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

    2012-08-01

    Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

  3. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broennimann, O.; Treier, Urs; Müller-Schärer, H.;

    2007-01-01

    Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in t...... of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions....

  4. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2012-07-01

    1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation

  5. Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change.

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    Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Tan, Jing-Fang; Yu, Fei-Hai

    2017-03-01

    Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country-wide level.

  6. CLIMBER: Climatic niche characteristics of the butterflies in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweiger, Oliver; Harpke, Alexander; Wiemers, Martin; Settele, Josef

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Detailed information on species’ ecological niche characteristics that can be related to declines and extinctions is indispensable for a better understanding of the relationship between the occurrence and performance of wild species and their environment and, moreover, for an improved assessment of the impacts of global change. Knowledge on species characteristics such as habitat requirements is already available in the ecological literature for butterflies, but information about their climatic requirements is still lacking. Here we present a unique dataset on the climatic niche characteristics of 397 European butterflies representing 91% of the European species (see Appendix). These characteristics were obtained by combining detailed information on butterfly distributions in Europe (which also led to the ‘Distribution Atlas of Butterflies in Europe’) and the corresponding climatic conditions. The presented dataset comprises information for the position and breadth of the following climatic niche characteristics: mean annual temperature, range in annual temperature, growing degree days, annual precipitation sum, range in annual precipitation and soil water content. The climatic niche position is indicated by the median and mean value for each climate variable across a species’ range, accompanied by the 95% confidence interval for the mean and the number of grid cells used for calculations. Climatic niche breadth is indicated by the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values for each climatic variable across a species’ range. Database compilation was based on high quality standards and the data are ready to use for a broad range of applications. It is already evident that the information provided in this dataset is of great relevance for basic and applied ecology. Based on the species temperature index (STI, i.e. the mean temperature value per species), the community temperature index (CTI, i.e. the average STI value across the species

  7. Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae)

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    Gómez, Camila; Tenorio, Elkin A.; Montoya, Paola; Cadena, Carlos Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour. PMID:26865303

  8. Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Camila; Tenorio, Elkin A; Montoya, Paola; Cadena, Carlos Daniel

    2016-02-10

    Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour.

  9. Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

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    Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

    2014-11-22

    The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change.

  10. Beyond climate: disturbance niche shifts in invasive species

    OpenAIRE

    González-Moreno, Pablo; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Richardson, David M.; Vilà, Montserrat

    2015-01-01

    Analysing how species niches shift between native and introduced ranges is a powerful tool for understanding the determinants of species distributions and for anticipating range expansions by invasive species. Most studies only consider the climatic niche, by correlating widely available presence-only data with regional climate. However, habitat characteristics and disturbance also shape species niches, thereby potentially confounding shifts attributed only to differences in climate. Here we ...

  11. Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olalla-Tárraga1, Miguel Á.; McInnes, Linsey; Bini, Luis M.

    2011-01-01

    in extant continental mammals and amphibians in order to identify those factors that are most evolutionarily conserved, and thus hypothesized to have played a major role in determining the geographic distributions of many species. We also test whether amphibians show stronger signals of climatic niche...... conservatism, as expected from their greater physiological sensitivity and lower dispersal abilities. Location Global; continental land masses excluding Antarctica. Methods We used nearly complete global distributional databases to estimate the climatic niche conservatism in extant continental mammals...... and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution...

  12. Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

    2016-01-01

    Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.

  13. Climatic niche divergence or conservatism? Environmental niches and range limits in ecologically similar damselflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellenreuther, Maren; Larson, Keith W; Svensson, Erik I

    2012-06-01

    The factors that determine species' range limits are of central interest to biologists. One particularly interesting group comprises odonates (dragonflies and damselflies), which show large differences in secondary sexual traits and respond quickly to climatic factors, but often have minor interspecific niche differences, challenging models of niche-based species coexistence. We quantified the environmental niches at two geographic scales to understand the ecological causes of northern range limits and the coexistence of two congeneric damselflies (Calopteryx splendens and C. virgo). Using environmental niche modeling, we quantified niche divergence first across the whole geographic range in Fennoscandia, and second only in the sympatric part of this range. We found evidence for interspecific divergence along the environmental axes of temperature and precipitation across the northern range in Fennoscandia, suggesting that adaptation to colder and wetter climate might have allowed C. virgo to expand farther north than C. splendens. However, in the sympatric zone in southern Fennoscandia we found only negligible and nonsignificant niche differences. Minor niche differences in sympatry lead to frequent encounters and intense interspecific sexual interactions at the local scale of populations. Nevertheless, niche differences across Fennoscandia suggest that species differences in physiological tolerances limit range expansions northward, and that current and future climate could have large effects on the distributional ranges of these and ecologically similar insects.

  14. Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.

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    Cang, F Alice; Wilson, Ashley A; Wiens, John J

    2016-09-01

    Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources.

  15. Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo

    2009-01-01

    Predicting past distributions of species climatic niches, hindcasting, by using climate envelope models (CEMs) is emerging as an exciting research area. CEMs are used to examine veiled evolutionary questions about extinctions, locations of past refugia and migration pathways, or to propose...... the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling and using inadequate methods for hindcasting CEMs may well entail a cascade of errors and naïve ecological and evolutionary inferences. We should also push integrative research lines linking macroecology, physiology, population biology, palaeontology...

  16. Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Ignacio; Wiens, John J

    2013-08-01

    A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.

  17. Climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andressa Duran

    Full Text Available Despite considerable interest in recent years on species distribution modeling and phylogenetic niche conservatism, little is known about the way in which climatic niches change over evolutionary time. This knowledge is of major importance to understand the mechanisms underlying limits of species distributions, as well as to infer how different lineages might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. In this study we investigate the tempo and mode climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini. Climatic conditions found throughout the distribution of 140 primate species were investigated using a principal component analysis, which indicated that mean temperature (particularly during the winter is the most important climatic correlate of platyrrhine geographical distributions, accounting for nearly half of the interspecific variation in climatic niches. The effects of precipitation were associated with the second principal component, particularly with respect to the dry season. When models of trait evolution were fit to scores on each of the principal component axes, significant phylogenetic signal was detected for PC1 scores, but not for PC2 scores. Interestingly, although all platyrrhine families occupied comparable regions of climatic space, some aotid species such as Aotus lemurinus, A. jorgehernandezi, and A. miconax show highly distinctive climatic niches associated with drier conditions (high PC2 scores. This shift might have been made possible by their nocturnal habits, which could serve as an exaptation that allow them to be less constrained by humidity during the night. These results underscore the usefulness of investigating explicitly the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution and its role in determining species distributions.

  18. Climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duran, Andressa; Meyer, Andreas L S; Pie, Marcio R

    2013-01-01

    Despite considerable interest in recent years on species distribution modeling and phylogenetic niche conservatism, little is known about the way in which climatic niches change over evolutionary time. This knowledge is of major importance to understand the mechanisms underlying limits of species distributions, as well as to infer how different lineages might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. In this study we investigate the tempo and mode climatic niche evolution in New World monkeys (Platyrrhini). Climatic conditions found throughout the distribution of 140 primate species were investigated using a principal component analysis, which indicated that mean temperature (particularly during the winter) is the most important climatic correlate of platyrrhine geographical distributions, accounting for nearly half of the interspecific variation in climatic niches. The effects of precipitation were associated with the second principal component, particularly with respect to the dry season. When models of trait evolution were fit to scores on each of the principal component axes, significant phylogenetic signal was detected for PC1 scores, but not for PC2 scores. Interestingly, although all platyrrhine families occupied comparable regions of climatic space, some aotid species such as Aotus lemurinus, A. jorgehernandezi, and A. miconax show highly distinctive climatic niches associated with drier conditions (high PC2 scores). This shift might have been made possible by their nocturnal habits, which could serve as an exaptation that allow them to be less constrained by humidity during the night. These results underscore the usefulness of investigating explicitly the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution and its role in determining species distributions.

  19. Niche variability and its consequences for species distribution modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt J Michel

    Full Text Available When species distribution models (SDMs are used to predict how a species will respond to environmental change, an important assumption is that the environmental niche of the species is conserved over evolutionary time-scales. Empirical studies conducted at ecological time-scales, however, demonstrate that the niche of some species can vary in response to environmental change. We use habitat and locality data of five species of stream fishes collected across seasons to examine the effects of niche variability on the accuracy of projections from Maxent, a popular SDM. We then compare these predictions to those from an alternate method of creating SDM projections in which a transformation of the environmental data to similar scales is applied. The niche of each species varied to some degree in response to seasonal variation in environmental variables, with most species shifting habitat use in response to changes in canopy cover or flow rate. SDMs constructed from the original environmental data accurately predicted the occurrences of one species across all seasons and a subset of seasons for two other species. A similar result was found for SDMs constructed from the transformed environmental data. However, the transformed SDMs produced better models in ten of the 14 total SDMs, as judged by ratios of mean probability values at known presences to mean probability values at all other locations. Niche variability should be an important consideration when using SDMs to predict future distributions of species because of its prevalence among natural populations. The framework we present here may potentially improve these predictions by accounting for such variability.

  20. Modeling the impact of climate change on wild Piper nigrum (Black Pepper) in Western Ghats, India using ecological niche models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Sandeep; Gode, Ameya; Ramanujam, Srirama; Ravikanth, G; Aravind, N A

    2016-11-01

    The center of diversity of Piper nigrum L. (Black Pepper), one of the highly valued spice crops is reported to be from India. Black pepper is naturally distributed in India in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot and is the only known existing source of its wild germplasm in the world. We used ecological niche models to predict the potential distribution of wild P. nigrum in the present and two future climate change scenarios viz (A1B) and (A2A) for the year 2080. Three topographic and nine uncorrelated bioclim variables were used to develop the niche models. The environmental variables influencing the distribution of wild P. nigrum across different climate change scenarios were identified. We also assessed the direction and magnitude of the niche centroid shift and the change in niche breadth to estimate the impact of projected climate change on the distribution of P. nigrum. The study shows a niche centroid shift in the future climate scenarios. Both the projected future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in the habitat of P. nigrum in Southern Western Ghats, which harbors many wild accessions of P. nigrum. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on P. nigrum and provide useful information for designing sound germplasm conservation strategies for P. nigrum.

  1. Adaptable habitablity, niche filling and exo-climate change

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    Hagai, Perets

    2015-07-01

    Planetary orbits may change due to gravitational perturbations by external bodies. Such changes can occur both on short and long timescales, and give rise to significant changes in the planetary climate and habitability. Such changes may render the climate inhabitable for any original pre-existing organisms. However, if the climate change timescale is longer than the timescale for organism genetic adaptation over several generations, the population of pre- existing organisms may evolve and adapt to the new conditions. This raises the possibility for the existence of planets in which life formed and evolved under favorable conditions, and then adapted to extreme conditions once significant climate-change occured. Such planets may therefore appear today as having too-extreme conditions as to allow for the emergence of life, even though life could have formed at ealier epoch at which time the planet climate differed. One can therefore discuss the possibility of "adaptable habitability", which relies not only on the current conditions but on the climate history and the dynamics of the planetary system. Moreover, once life emerges and evolves to the stage in which rapid adaptababilty is possible, organisms may adapt as to fill extreme environmental nches (e.g. extremophiles on Earth). Once climate-change leads to overall extreme planetary conditions, such originally extreme- niche filling organisms can prevail and occupy the main environments of the planets, where as such extreme planetary conditions, if they existed primordially, wouldn't have allowed for the emergence of life to begin with. We discuss these issues, and provide detailed planetary dynamics examples for such adaptable habitability to occur.

  2. Widespread correlations between climatic niche evolution and species diversification in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooney, Christopher R; Seddon, Nathalie; Tobias, Joseph A

    2016-07-01

    The adaptability of species' climatic niches can influence the dynamics of colonization and gene flow across climatic gradients, potentially increasing the likelihood of speciation or reducing extinction in the face of environmental change. However, previous comparative studies have tested these ideas using geographically, taxonomically and ecologically restricted samples, yielding mixed results, and thus the processes linking climatic niche evolution with diversification remain poorly understood. Focusing on birds, the largest and most widespread class of terrestrial vertebrates, we test whether variation in species diversification among clades is correlated with rates of climatic niche evolution and the extent to which these patterns are modified by underlying gradients in biogeography and species' ecology. We quantified climatic niches, latitudinal distribution and ecological traits for 7657 (˜75%) bird species based on geographical range polygons and then used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to test whether niche evolution was related to species richness and rates of diversification across genus- and family-level clades. We found that the rate of climatic niche evolution has a positive linear relationship with both species richness and diversification rate at two different taxonomic levels (genus and family). Furthermore, this positive association between labile climatic niches and diversification was detected regardless of variation in clade latitude or key ecological traits. Our findings suggest either that rapid adaptation to unoccupied areas of climatic niche space promotes avian diversification, or that diversification promotes adaptation. Either way, we propose that climatic niche evolution is a fundamental process regulating the link between climate and biodiversity at global scales, irrespective of the geographical and ecological context of speciation and extinction.

  3. Maximum Entropy-Based Ecological Niche Model and Bio-Climatic Determinants of Lone Star Tick (Amblyomma americanum) Niche.

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    Raghavan, Ram K; Goodin, Douglas G; Hanzlicek, Gregg A; Zolnerowich, Gregory; Dryden, Michael W; Anderson, Gary A; Ganta, Roman R

    2016-03-01

    The potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum ticks in Kansas was modeled using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches based on museum and field-collected species occurrence data. Various bioclimatic variables were used in the model as potentially influential factors affecting the A. americanum niche. Following reduction of dimensionality among predictor variables using principal components analysis, which revealed that the first two principal axes explain over 87% of the variance, the model indicated that suitable conditions for this medically important tick species cover a larger area in Kansas than currently believed. Soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation were highly correlated with the first two principal components and were influential factors in the A. americanum ecological niche. Assuming that the niche estimated in this study covers the occupied distribution, which needs to be further confirmed by systematic surveys, human exposure to this known disease vector may be considerably under-appreciated in the state.

  4. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

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    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Badano, Ernesto I

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  5. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge E Ramírez-Albores

    Full Text Available Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted, the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle, a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model. The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model, while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model. When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with

  6. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  7. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  8. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  9. Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche and Climate Refugia of Conservation Priority Salamander Species in the Northeastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B. Sutton

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

  10. Quantifying inter- and intra-population niche variability using hierarchical bayesian stable isotope mixing models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X; Ward, Eric J; Moore, Jonathan W; Darimont, Chris T

    2009-07-09

    Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population.

  11. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Muñoz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

  12. Phylogenetic constraints in key functional traits behind species' climate niches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kellermann, Vanessa; Loeschcke, Volker; Hoffmann, Ary A;

    2012-01-01

    adapted to similar environments or alternatively phylogenetic inertia. For desiccation resistance, weak phylogenetic inertia was detected; ancestral trait reconstruction, however, revealed a deep divergence that could be traced back to the genus level. Despite drosophilids’ high evolutionary potential......) for 92–95 Drosophila species and assessed their importance for geographic distributions, while controlling for acclimation, phylogeny, and spatial autocorrelation. Employing an array of phylogenetic analyses, we documented moderate-to-strong phylogenetic signal in both desiccation and cold resistance....... Desiccation and cold resistance were clearly linked to species distributions because significant associations between traits and climatic variables persisted even after controlling for phylogeny. We used different methods to untangle whether phylogenetic signal reflected phylogenetically related species...

  13. Mirador - Climate Variability and Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. NASA's role in climate variability study is centered around providing the global scale observational data sets on oceans and...

  14. Solar Variability and Planetary Climates

    CERN Document Server

    Calisesi, Y; Gray, L; Langen, J; Lockwood, M

    2007-01-01

    Variations in solar activity, as revealed by variations in the number of sunspots, have been observed since ancient times. To what extent changes in the solar output may affect planetary climates, though, remains today more than ever a subject of controversy. In 2000, the SSSI volume on Solar Variability and Climate reviewed the to-date understanding of the physics of solar variability and of the associated climate response. The present volume on Solar Variability and Planetary Climates provides an overview of recent advances in this field, with particular focus at the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere. The book structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005, the collection of invited workshop contributions and of complementary introductory papers synthesizing the current understanding in key research areas such as middle atmospheric processes, stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, tropospheric aerosols chemistry, solar storm influences, solar variability physics, and terrestri...

  15. Colour-variable birds have broader ranges, wider niches and are less likely to be threatened.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delhey, K; Smith, J; Peters, A

    2013-07-01

    Coloration fulfils a variety of adaptive functions in animals. Colour variability, both between and within species, can be caused by different colours being favoured for different functions and in different environments. Thus, species with highly variable coloration may have greater potential to persist in new and changing environments. As a consequence, such colour-variable species may be more able to adapt, colonize new areas and niches, occupy larger ranges, speciate more readily and in general be less vulnerable to environmental change and extinction. These predictions have been supported by comparative analyses on amphibians and reptiles. However, as coloration in ectotherms plays a key role in thermoregulation, it is unclear whether these results can be generalized to endotherms, such as birds and mammals. Here, we test the hypothesis that more colour-variable endotherms occupy larger ranges/niches and are less vulnerable to the threat of extinction by focussing on colour variation in Australian parrots and passerine birds. As predicted, colour variability was correlated with range size (parrots and passerines) and niche breadth (dietary heterogeneity, parrots only). These relationships support the predicted link between colour variability and adaptability, whereby range size and niche breadth may be a cause of colour variability or vice versa. Irrespective, and as predicted, colour variability was lower in threatened species, even after statistically controlling for other confounding variables. Hence, our study supports the hypothesis that colour-variable species in general are more resilient to environmental change.

  16. Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña-Gómez, Francisco T; Guerrero, Pablo C; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O

    2014-01-01

    Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche

  17. Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae, an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco T Peña-Gómez

    Full Text Available Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile, and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Species Distribution Models (SDMs, to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with

  18. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  19. Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Heerwaarden, Belinda; Sgrò, Carla M

    2014-09-07

    Species with restricted distributions make up the vast majority of biodiversity. Recent evidence suggests that Drosophila species with restricted tropical distributions lack genetic variation in the key trait of desiccation resistance. It has therefore been predicted that tropically restricted species will be limited in their evolutionary response to future climatic changes and will face higher risks of extinction. However, these assessments have been made using extreme levels of desiccation stress (less than 10% relative humidity (RH)) that extend well beyond the changes projected for the wet tropics under climate change scenarios over the next 30 years. Here, we show that significant evolutionary responses to less extreme (35% RH) but more ecologically realistic levels of climatic change and desiccation stress are in fact possible in two species of rainforest restricted Drosophila. Evolution may indeed be an important means by which sensitive rainforest-restricted species are able to mitigate the effects of climate change.

  20. Phylogenetic signals in the climatic niches of the world's amphibians

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2010-01-01

    The question of whether closely related species share similar ecological requirements has attracted increasing attention, because of its importance for understanding global diversity gradients and the impacts of climate change on species distributions. In fact, the assumption that related species...

  1. The fate of the Arctic seaweed Fucus distichus under climate change: an ecological niche modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Smolina, Irina; Coyer, James A; Hoarau, Galice

    2016-03-01

    Rising temperatures are predicted to melt all perennial ice cover in the Arctic by the end of this century, thus opening up suitable habitat for temperate and subarctic species. Canopy-forming seaweeds provide an ideal system to predict the potential impact of climate-change on rocky-shore ecosystems, given their direct dependence on temperature and their key role in the ecological system. Our primary objective was to predict the climate-change induced range-shift of Fucus distichus, the dominant canopy-forming macroalga in the Arctic and subarctic rocky intertidal. More specifically, we asked: which Arctic/subarctic and cold-temperate shores of the northern hemisphere will display the greatest distributional change of F. distichus and how will this affect niche overlap with seaweeds from temperate regions? We used the program MAXENT to develop correlative ecological niche models with dominant range-limiting factors and 169 occurrence records. Using three climate-change scenarios, we projected habitat suitability of F. distichus - and its niche overlap with three dominant temperate macroalgae - until year 2200. Maximum sea surface temperature was identified as the most important factor in limiting the fundamental niche of F. distichus. Rising temperatures were predicted to have low impact on the species' southern distribution limits, but to shift its northern distribution limits poleward into the high Arctic. In cold-temperate to subarctic regions, new areas of niche overlap were predicted between F. distichus and intertidal macroalgae immigrating from the south. While climate-change threatens intertidal seaweeds in warm-temperate regions, seaweed meadows will likely flourish in the Arctic intertidal. Although this enriches biodiversity and opens up new seaweed-harvesting grounds, it will also trigger unpredictable changes in the structure and functioning of the Arctic intertidal ecosystem.

  2. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker James R

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948 and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources

  3. Variable-data Printing Serves - Niches Here, There & Everywhere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Ynostroza

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available A milestone focus on high-end digital color presses capable of variable-data imaging - a technology that was introduced ten years ago and is just now at the beginning of wider, more successful implementation in commercial printing-tends to overshadow some real achievements on other variable-data fronts. Those activities involve ink-jet and electrophotographic imaging for high-volume transactional printing, print-on-demand books and catalogs, wide-format proofing and imaging, label production, and printing of text and coding of printed packaging.The capabilities of digital production color presses intrigue commercial printers the most, especially new units referred to by manufacturers as "Series II" or "third-generation" systems. Besides having more press-like characteristics, from offset-caliber quality, image consistency, and high output rates to sturdy construction, reliability, and stock choice, the units seem to represent a way to produce printing that’s beyond the norm.Some users are producing hybrid printed products (offset printing a quantity of "shells" that are later personalized by digital presses, while others are utilizing clients’ "dynamic" databases to personalize marketing materials that drive response rates up to 15%, even 35%. Finally, digital color systems prompt the creation of high-margin Internet-based print providers offering easy-to-design and easy-toorder print materials. Printers may do well to adopt the high-value communications capability that digital imaging offers.

  4. Tropical deforestation and climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voldoire, A.; Royer, J.F. [CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, Meteo-France, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France)

    2004-07-01

    A new tropical deforestation experiment has been performed, with the ARPEGE-Climat atmospheric global circulation model associated with the ISBA land surface scheme. Simulations are forced with observed monthly mean sea surface temperatures and thus inter-annual variability of the ocean system is taken into account. The local mean response to deforestation over Amazonia and Africa is relatively weak compared with most published studies and compensation effects are particularly important. However, a large increase in daily maximum temperatures is obtained during the dry season when soil water stress dominates. The analysis of daily variability shows that the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperatures are noticeably modified with an increase in extreme temperatures. Daily precipitation amounts also indicate a weakening of the convective activity. Conditions for the onset of convection are less frequently gathered, particularly over southern Amazonia and western equatorial Africa. At the same time, the intensity of convective events is reduced, especially over equatorial deforested regions. The inter-annual variability is also enhanced. For instance, El Nino events generally induce a large drying over northern Amazonia, which is well reproduced in the control simulation. In the deforested experiment, a positive feedback effect leads to a strong intensification of this drying and a subsequent increase in surface temperature. The change in variability as a response to deforestation can be more crucial than the change of the mean climate since more intense extremes could be more detrimental for agriculture than an increase in mean temperatures. (orig.)

  5. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  6. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae in climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Moo-Llanes

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  7. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  8. Climate variability, predictability and climate risks. A european perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wanner, H.; Grosjean, M.; Roethlisberger, R.; Xoplaki, E. [NCCR Climate, University of Bern, Erlachstrasse 9a, 3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2006-11-15

    Based on the book with the same title. The book provides an integrated assessment of issues related to climate variability and change, predictability and risks. The book deals with both the technical aspects of variability and (abrupt) climate change and the agricultural and economical impacts and consequences.

  9. Climate variability and climate change in Mexico: A review

    OpenAIRE

    Jáuregui, E.

    1997-01-01

    A review of research on climate variability, fluctuations and climate change in Mexico is presented. Earlier approaches include different time scales from paleoclimatic to historical and instrumental. The nature and causes of variability in Mexico have been attributed to large-scale southward/northward shifts of the mid-latitude major circulation and more recently to the ENSO cycle. Global greenhouse warming has become a major environmental issue and has spawned a large number of climate-chan...

  10. Seasonal Variability of Wind Climate in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PÉLINÉ NÉMETH, Csilla

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important effects of climate variability and climate change may comefrom changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes. Responding to the need of newclimatologic analyses, complex wind field research was carried out to study and provide reliableinformation about the state and variability of wind climate in Hungary. First of all, special attentionwas paid on creation of a high quality, homogeneous data series. The research is based on 36-yearlong(1975–2010 wind data series of 36 Hungarian synoptic meteorological stations. The means andextremes of near-surface wind conditions assist in estimating the regional effects of climate change,therefore a complex wind climate analysis was carried out. Spatial and temporal distribution of meanand extreme wind characteristics were estimated; wind extremes and trends were interpolated andmapped over the country. Furthermore, measured and ERA Interim reanalysis data were compared inorder to estimate the effects of regional climate change.

  11. Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Neteler, M; Tjaden, N B; Beierkuhnlein, C

    2014-02-13

    The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.

  12. Global climate niche estimates for bioenergy crops and invasive species of agronomic origin: potential problems and opportunities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob N Barney

    Full Text Available The global push towards a more biomass-based energy sector is ramping up efforts to adopt regionally appropriate high-yielding crops. As potential bioenergy crops are being moved around the world an assessment of the climatic suitability would be a prudent first step in identifying suitable areas of productivity and risk. Additionally, this assessment also provides a necessary step in evaluating the invasive potential of bioenergy crops, which present a possible negative externality to the bioeconomy. Therefore, we provide the first global climate niche assessment for the major graminaceous (9, herbaceous (3, and woody (4 bioenergy crops. Additionally, we contrast these with climate niche assessments for North American invasive species that were originally introduced for agronomic purposes as examples of well-intentioned introductions gone awry. With few exceptions (e.g., Saccharum officinarum, Pennisetum purpureum, the bioenergy crops exhibit broad climatic tolerance, which allows tremendous flexibility in choosing crops, especially in areas with high summer rainfall and long growing seasons (e.g., southeastern US, Amazon Basin, eastern Australia. Unsurprisingly, the invasive species of agronomic origin have very similar global climate niche profiles as the proposed bioenergy crops, also demonstrating broad climatic tolerance. The ecoregional evaluation of bioenergy crops and known invasive species demonstrates tremendous overlap at both high (EI≥30 and moderate (EI≥20 climate suitability. The southern and western US ecoregions support the greatest number of invasive species of agronomic origin, especially the Southeastern USA Plains, Mixed Woods Plains, and Mediterranean California. Many regions of the world have a suitable climate for several bioenergy crops allowing selection of agro-ecoregionally appropriate crops. This model knowingly ignores the complex biotic interactions and edaphic conditions, but provides a robust assessment of

  13. Processes Understanding of Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    The realistic representation of decadal climate variability in the models is essential for the quality of decadal climate predictions. Therefore, the understanding of those processes leading to decadal climate variability needs to be improved. Several of these processes are already included in climate models but their importance has not yet completely been clarified. The simulation of other processes requires sometimes a higher resolution of the model or an extension by additional subsystems. This is addressed within one module of the German research program "MiKlip II - Decadal Climate Predictions" (http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/) with a focus on the following processes. Stratospheric processes and their impact on the troposphere are analysed regarding the climate response to aerosol perturbations caused by volcanic eruptions and the stratospheric decadal variability due to solar forcing, climate change and ozone recovery. To account for the interaction between changing ozone concentrations and climate a computationally efficient ozone chemistry module is developed and implemented in the MiKlip prediction system. The ocean variability and air-sea interaction are analysed with a special focus on the reduction of the North Atlantic cold bias. In addition, the predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake with a special emphasis on the underlying mechanism is investigated. This addresses a combination of physical, biological and chemical processes.

  14. Tracking a medically important spider: climate change, ecological niche modeling, and the brown recluse (Loxosceles reclusa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin E Saupe

    Full Text Available Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae, causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses.

  15. Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

    2013-08-01

    Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.

  16. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and

  17. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae, Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno M Carvalho

    Full Text Available Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest. Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador

  18. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela

  19. GEOMORPHOLOGICAL ECOGEOGRAPHICAL VARIABLES DEFINIG FEATURES OF ECOLOGICAL NICHE OF COMMON MILKWEED (ASCLEPIAS SYRIACA L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Kunah

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The role of geomorphological ecogeographical variables have been shown, which are received by means of the digital elevation model created on the basis of remote sensing data as markers of an ecological niche of weeds on an example common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca L.. The research range chooses territory which is in settlement Vovnjanka district (the Poltava region. The range has the linear sizes of 26 kilometres in a direction from the east on the west and 15 kilometres in a direction from the north on the south, the range total area makes 390 км2. As geomorphological variables the topographical wetness index, topographic position index, mass balance index, erosion LS-factor, direct and disseminated insolation, altitude above channel network, multiresolution valley bottom flatness, multiresolution ridge top flatness index, vector ruggedness measure have been considered. It is established, that on set of the geomorphological indicators received by means of digital model of a relief, it is possible to assert, that within a separate agricultural field a wide variety of microconditions which is caused by relief features is formed. Possibly, the variation of thermal and water modes, moisture redistribution, and also productivity mechanical processings of soil and efforts under the control of number of weeds make a background in which limits there is possible a moving of weed plants, including common milkweed.

  20. The use of climatic niches in screening procedures for introduced species to evaluate risk of spread: a case with the American Eastern grey squirrel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Febbraro, Mirko; Lurz, Peter W W; Genovesi, Piero; Maiorano, Luigi; Girardello, Marco; Bertolino, Sandro

    2013-01-01

    Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel's niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species' climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.

  1. Environmental Variables Shaping the Ecological Niche of Thaumarchaeota in Soil: Direct and Indirect Causal Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jin-Kyung; Cho, Jae-Chang

    2015-01-01

    To find environmental variables (EVs) shaping the ecological niche of the archaeal phylum Thaumarchaeota in terrestrial environments, we determined the abundance of Thaumarchaeota in various soil samples using real-time PCR targeting thaumarchaeotal 16S rRNA gene sequences. We employed our previously developed primer, THAUM-494, which had greater coverage for Thaumarchaeota and lower tolerance to nonthaumarchaeotal taxa than previous Thaumarchaeota-directed primers. The relative abundance estimates (RVs) of Thaumarchaeota (RTHAUM), Archaea (RARCH), and Bacteria (RBACT) were subjected to a series of statistical analyses. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed a significant (p biplot. These negative relationships were further confirmed by correlation and regression analyses. Total nitrogen content (TN) appeared to be the EV that affected RTHAUM most strongly, and total carbon content (TC), which reflected the content of organic matter (OM), appeared to be the EV that affected it least. However, in the path analysis, a path model indicated that TN might be a mediator EV that could be controlled directly by the OM. Additionally, another path model implied that water content (WC) might also indirectly affect RTHAUM by controlling ammonium nitrogen (NH4+-N) level through ammonification. Thus, although most directly affected by NH4+-N, RTHAUM could be ultimately determined by OM content, suggesting that Thaumarchaeota could prefer low-OM or low-WC conditions, because either of these EVs could subsequently result in low levels of NH4+-N in soil.

  2. Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arshad, Muhammad; Kächele, Harald; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Abbas, Azhar; Mehmood, Yasir; Müller, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated t

  3. Climatic Variability In Tropical Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, L. W.

    2003-04-01

    atmospheric condition and hence reduces rainfall for about 1.5 years in tropical countries. This was proved in 2001. This forecast was presented as a paper in 1998 Stockholm Water Symposium. The results were true for Brazil as well. The danger is now over when the episode is relaxed. Second half of 2002 was heavily wet and all the tanks in Sri Lanka except Kirindioya complex in Hambanthoa area got filled. This condition was seen in 1997 where all tanks got filled. El Nino analysts declared 1997 as a drought year as the previous year had experienced warming in Pacific Ocean. Southern Oscillation events are now dissociating to conformity. Discussion Hambanthoa District remained in the dry zone of Sri Lanka for 2000 years as the soil forms expressed as reddish brown earths. Original kingdoms had its base in Anuradhapura in Northcentral Province and Magama in Hambanthota district. Tools used by contemporary farmers were not powerful to use enormous water resources in wet zone. A system of diversion dams and use of run of the river irrigation has proved as the main criteria of that era. Diversion dams and canal projects were in existence. The diversion dams with special shape was mistaken by british surveyors and marked as broken dams in plans. DLOMendis later identified these as effective deflecting dams. The purpose was to wet the area to do cultivation. This system of wetting the land was suitable for dry climates with low rainfall. High technology was introduced by Irrigation Department to construct several reservoirs in Hambanthota. This was planned after the insufficient water use of Ellagala anicut from Kirindi Oya. Next step was to plan a reservoir project at Lunugamvehera dam site. Precipitation data available for 50 years were studied and a reservoir was designed for 20 000acres of paddy. It was planned to cultivate rice for Maha season and other field crops for Yala season. Cultivation commenced in 1985 and the farmers had enough water for 20000acres including

  4. Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A. Asante

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

  5. Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in north america: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila González

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada, leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica, three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus, and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed

  6. Coexistence of competitors in marine metacommunities: environmental variability, edge effects, and the dispersal niche.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Christopher M; Navarrete, Sergio A

    2014-08-01

    Theoretical studies have shown that coexistence between competitors can be favored in a spatially heterogeneous environment by a number of mechanisms, which ultimately allow the expression of persistent or transitory variation in species competitive abilities, colonization, or reproduction. Four distinctive paradigms to model metacommunities have been identified according to assumptions about the biology of the species and essential aspects of the environment. Missing from these are mechanisms of coexistence that can arise from the dispersal process itself without explicit spatial heterogeneity or biological trade-offs. These mechanisms have only recently received attention, but they may be common in marine communities and other systems in which dispersal is obligatory and modulated by the physical environment. We investigate coexistence in spatially homogeneous metacommunities where there is no partitioning of resources, no competition-colonization trade-off, and no possibility of source-sink dynamics. Coexistence is shown to be possible through three distinct mechanisms related to the dispersal process itself. Firstly, in a neutral scenario, inclusion of temporal variability in the connectivity matrix, emulating an intrinsic attribute of ocean character and other turbulent environments, can promote the invasion of an equally matched competitor and, in a hierarchical competition scenario, the persistence of an otherwise unviable, inferior competitor (the dispersal variability mechanism). Secondly, a sufficiently large difference in the shape of the time-independent dispersal kernels of the two species, which may result from differences in larval-release timing, buoyancy, or behavior, can produce stable coexistence in the center of their shared range (the dispersal-shape mechanism). Thirdly, asymmetry in the dispersal process due to biased advection renders the metapopulation model reactive, such that small variations in the upstream abundances can be sufficient

  7. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.;

    2006-01-01

    Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions...... role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity....... Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact...

  8. Climate-driven diversification and Pleistocene refugia in Philippine birds: evidence from phylogeographic structure and paleoenvironmental niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosner, Peter A; Sánchez-González, Luis A; Peterson, A Townsend; Moyle, Robert G

    2014-09-01

    Avian diversification in oceanic archipelagos is largely attributed to isolation across marine barriers. During glacial maxima, lowered sea levels resulted in repeated land connections between islands joined by shallow seas. Consequently, such islands are not expected to show endemism. However, if climate fluctuations simultaneously caused shifts in suitable environmental conditions, limiting populations to refugia, then occurrence on and dispersal across periodic land bridges are not tenable. To assess the degree to which paleoclimate barriers, rather than marine barriers, drove avian diversification in the Philippine Archipelago, we produced ecological niche models for current-day, glacial maxima, and interglacial climate scenarios to infer potential Pleistocene distributions and paleoclimate barriers. We then tested marine and paleoclimate barriers for correspondence to geographic patterns of population divergence, inferred from DNA sequences from eight codistributed bird species. In all species, deep-water channels corresponded to zones of genetic differentiation, but six species exhibited deeper divergence associated with a periodic land bridge in the southern Philippines. Ecological niche models for these species identified a common paleoclimate barrier that coincided with deep genetic structure among populations. Although dry land connections joined southern Philippine islands during low sea level stands, unfavorable environmental conditions limited populations within landmasses, resulting in long-term isolation and genetic differentiation. These results highlight the complex nature of diversification in archipelagos: marine barriers, changes in connectivity due to sea level change, and climate-induced refugia acted in concert to produce great species diversity and endemism in the Philippines.

  9. Within-population isotopic niche variability in savanna mammals: disparity between carnivores and herbivores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daryl eCodron

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Large mammal ecosystems have relatively simple food webs, usually comprising three – and sometimes only two – trophic links. Since many syntopic species from the same trophic level therefore share resources, dietary niche partitioning features prominently within these systems. In African and other subtropical savannas, stable carbon isotopes readily distinguish between herbivore species for which foliage and other parts of dicot plants (13C-depleted C3 vegetation are the primary resource (browsers and those for which grasses (13C-enriched C4 vegetation are staples (grazers. Similarly, carbon isotopes distinguish between carnivore diets that may be richer in either browser, grazer, or intermediate-feeding prey. Here, we investigate levels of carbon and nitrogen isotopic niche variation and niche partitioning within populations (or species of carnivores and herbivores from South African savannas. We emphasize predictable differences in within-population trends across trophic levels: we expect that herbivore populations, which require more foraging effort due to higher intake requirements, are far less likely to display within-population resource partitioning than carnivore populations. Our results reveal generally narrower isotopic niche breadths in herbivore than carnivore populations, but more importantly we find lower levels of isotopic differentiation across individuals within herbivore species. While these results offer some support for our general hypothesis, the current paucity of isotopic data for African carnivores limits our ability to test the complete set of predictions arising from our hypothesis. Nevertheless, given the different ecological and ecophysiological constraints to foraging behaviour within each trophic level, comparisons across carnivores and herbivores, which are possible within such simplified foodwebs, make these systems ideal for developing a process-based understanding of conditions underlying the evolution of

  10. The use of climatic niches in screening procedures for introduced species to evaluate risk of spread: a case with the American Eastern grey squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Di Febbraro

    Full Text Available Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM, a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM, a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM. Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel's niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species' climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.

  11. Interpolation of climate variables and temperature modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Lohar, Debasish; Pal, Babita

    2012-01-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and modeling are becoming powerful tools in agricultural research and natural resource management. This study proposes an empirical methodology for modeling and mapping of the monthly and annual air temperature using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The study area is Gangetic West Bengal and its neighborhood in the eastern India, where a number of weather systems occur throughout the year. Gangetic West Bengal is a region of strong heterogeneous surface with several weather disturbances. This paper also examines statistical approaches for interpolating climatic data over large regions, providing different interpolation techniques for climate variables' use in agricultural research. Three interpolation approaches, like inverse distance weighted averaging, thin-plate smoothing splines, and co-kriging are evaluated for 4° × 4° area, covering the eastern part of India. The land use/land cover, soil texture, and digital elevation model are used as the independent variables for temperature modeling. Multiple regression analysis with standard method is used to add dependent variables into regression equation. Prediction of mean temperature for monsoon season is better than winter season. Finally standard deviation errors are evaluated after comparing the predicted temperature and observed temperature of the area. For better improvement, distance from the coastline and seasonal wind pattern are stressed to be included as independent variables.

  12. Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with

  13. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas J Shinneman

    Full Text Available Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM, ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated

  14. Exploring Climate Niches of Ponderosa Pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) Haplotypes in the Western United States: Implications for Evolutionary History and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

    2016-01-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete

  15. Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

    2016-03-01

    For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.

  16. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  17. Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Fernández

    Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.

  18. Climate variability and Port wine quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Celia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Dacamara, Carlos

    2010-05-01

    ), suggesting that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Célia Gouveia and Ricardo M. Trigo. "Influence of climate variability on wheat production in Portugal". GeoENV2006- 6th International Conference on Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Rhodes, October, 25-27, 2006 Miranda, P.M.A., F. Coelho, A. R. Tomé, M. A Valente., A. Carvalho, C. Pires, H. O. Pires, V. C. Cabrinha and C. Ramalho (2002) "20th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios", in Santos, F.D., K Forbes and R. Moita (eds) Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adptation Measures", 27-83. Gradiva

  19. Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gengping Zhu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the environmental variables that associated with species’ occurrence records, ecological niche modeling (ENM seeks to characterize environmental conditions suitable for a particular species and then identify where suitable environmental habitats are distributed in the space. Recently, ENM has been used increasingly in biological invasion, conservation biology, biological responses toclimate change, disease spatial transmission, and variety aspects of ecology and evolutionary biology research. However, the theoretical background of these applications is generally poorly understood, leading to artifactual conclusions in some studies (e.g. niche differentiation during species’ invasion. In this paper we discuss the relationship between niche and geographic distribution and introduce the theoretical basis of ENM, along with relationships between the niche and ENM. Abiotic/biotic, historical and dispersal factors are three key elements that determine species’ geographic distributions at different scales. By using environmental variables derived from distributional records, ENM is based on observations that already include effects of biotic interactions, therefore ENM is used to characterize somewhere between the realized niche and potential niche, not the fundamental niche. Grinnellian and Eltonian niches are both manifested in ENM calibration, depending on the types of variables used to fit model, the natural spatial scale at which they can be measured, and the dispersal of individuals throughout the environment. Applications of ENM in understanding ecological requirements of species, discovery of new species or populations, nature reserve design, predicting potential invasion, modeling biological responses to climate change, niche conservatism, and pecies delimitation are discussed in this paper.

  20. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  1. Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Hirota, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle1 and is projected to increase rainfall variability2. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in rainfal

  2. Conclusions about niche expansion in introduced Impatiens walleriana populations depend on method of analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Mandle

    Full Text Available Determining the degree to which climate niches are conserved across plant species' native and introduced ranges is valuable to developing successful strategies to limit the introduction and spread of invasive plants, and also has important ecological and evolutionary implications. Here, we test whether climate niches differ between native and introduced populations of Impatiens walleriana, globally one of the most popular horticultural species. We use approaches based on both raw climate data associated with occurrence points and ecological niche models (ENMs developed with Maxent. We include comparisons of climate niche breadth in both geographic and environmental spaces, taking into account differences in available habitats between the distributional areas. We find significant differences in climate envelopes between native and introduced populations when comparing raw climate variables, with introduced populations appearing to expand into wetter and cooler climates. However, analyses controlling for differences in available habitat in each region do not indicate expansion of climate niches. We therefore cannot reject the hypothesis that observed differences in climate envelopes reflect only the limited environments available within the species' native range in East Africa. Our results suggest that models built from only native range occurrence data will not provide an accurate prediction of the potential for invasiveness if applied to areas containing a greater range of environmental combinations, and that tests of niche expansion may overestimate shifts in climate niches if they do not control carefully for environmental differences between distributional areas.

  3. Modelling species invasions using thermal and trophic niche dynamics under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone eLibralato

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changing marine temperatures modify the distributional ranges of natural populations, but the success of invasion of new areas depends on local physical and ecological conditions. We explore the invasion by thermophilic species and their ecosystem effects by simulating a sea surface temperature increase using a trophodynamic model for the northern Adriatic Sea (NAS, in which thermal and trophic niches are explicitly represented for each thermophilic non-indigenous species and native species. The NAS acts as a cul-de-sac for local species, preventing a further poleward migration as a response to temperature rise. In this situation, model results showed that effects of warming and invasion produced complex, non-linear changes on biomasses but never resulted in a complete overturn of a group of native species and/or a bloom of invasive ones. Despite this, the diversity index stabilizes at increased values after simulating invasion, possibly indicating that in such enclosed systems the establishment of invasive species could represent enrichment in ecosystem structure. In addition, the absence of complete species substitution clearly showed the contribution of resident species towards increasing the resilience, i.e. the capability of the system to cope with invasion without changing substantially. Contrasting scenarios highlighted that changes in ecosystem primary production and species adaptation had secondary effects in ecosystem structure, while results for scenarios with different exploitation levels indicated that fishing can destabilize community structure in these change contexts, e.g. reducing community resilience. The results confirmed the importance of an ecological niche approach to analyze possible effects of invasion and highlighted the complexity of dynamics linked to temperature-driven species invasion’, in terms of both the predicted strength of impacts and the direction of biomass change.

  4. A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Varela

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM. Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1 map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2 analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM during the LGM, and 3 quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11 are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12-BIO19 show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of

  5. Climate variability effects on spatial soil moisture dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    A. J. Teuling; Hupet, F.; R. Uijlenhoet; P. A. Troch

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the role of interannual climate variability on spatial soil moisture variability dynamics for a field site in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Observations were made during 3 years under intermediate (1999), wet (2000), and extremely dry conditions (2003). Soil moisture variability dynamics are simulated with a comprehensive model for the period 1989-2003. The results show that climate variability induces non-uniqueness and two distinct hysteresis modes in the yearly relation between...

  6. Thermal tolerance ranges and climate variability : A comparison between bivalves from differing climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Compton, Tanya J.; Rijkenberg, Micha J. A.; Drent, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

    2007-01-01

    The climate variability hypothesis proposes that in variable temperate climates poikilothermic animals have wide thermal tolerance windows, whereas in constant tropical climates they have small thermal tolerance windows. In this study we quantified and compared the upper and lower lethal thermal tol

  7. Exploratory Analysis of Dengue Fever Niche Variables within the Río Magdalena Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Austin Stanforth

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous research on Dengue Fever have involved laboratory tests or study areas with less diverse temperature and elevation ranges than is found in Colombia; therefore, preliminary research was needed to identify location specific attributes of Dengue Fever transmission. Environmental variables derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellites were combined with population variables to be statistically compared against reported cases of Dengue Fever in the Río Magdalena watershed, Colombia. Three-factor analysis models were investigated to analyze variable patterns, including a population, population density, and empirical Bayesian estimation model. Results identified varying levels of Dengue Fever transmission risk, and environmental characteristics which support, and advance, the research literature. Multiple temperature metrics, elevation, and vegetation composition were among the more contributory variables found to identify future potential outbreak locations.

  8. Phylogenetic assemblage structure of North American trees is more strongly shaped by glacial-interglacial climate variability in gymnosperms than in angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ziyu; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2016-05-01

    How fast does biodiversity respond to climate change? The relationship of past and current climate with phylogenetic assemblage structure helps us to understand this question. Studies of angiosperm tree diversity in North America have already suggested effects of current water-energy balance and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial-interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic endemism, the concentration of unique lineages in restricted ranges, may also be related to glacial-interglacial climate variability and needs more attention. We used a refined phylogeny of both angiosperms and gymnosperms to map phylogenetic diversity, clustering and endemism of North American trees in 100-km grid cells, and climate change velocity since Last Glacial Maximum together with postglacial accessibility to recolonization to quantify glacial-interglacial climate variability. We found: (1) Current climate is the dominant factor explaining the overall patterns, with more clustered angiosperm assemblages toward lower temperature, consistent with tropical niche conservatism. (2) Long-term climate stability is associated with higher angiosperm endemism, while higher postglacial accessibility is linked to to more phylogenetic clustering and endemism in gymnosperms. (3) Factors linked to glacial-interglacial climate change have stronger effects on gymnosperms than on angiosperms. These results suggest that paleoclimate legacies supplement current climate in shaping phylogenetic patterns in North American trees, and especially so for gymnosperms.

  9. A first approach to calculate BIOCLIM variables and climate zones for Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Monika; Trutschnig, Wolfgang; Bathke, Arne C.; Ruprecht, Ulrike

    2017-02-01

    For testing the hypothesis that macroclimatological factors determine the occurrence, biodiversity, and species specificity of both symbiotic partners of Antarctic lecideoid lichens, we present a first approach for the computation of the full set of 19 BIOCLIM variables, as available at http://www.worldclim.org/ for all regions of the world with exception of Antarctica. Annual mean temperature (Bio 1) and annual precipitation (Bio 12) were chosen to define climate zones of the Antarctic continent and adjacent islands as required for ecological niche modeling (ENM). The zones are based on data for the years 2009-2015 which was obtained from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) database of the Ohio State University. For both temperature and precipitation, two separate zonings were specified; temperature values were divided into 12 zones (named 1 to 12) and precipitation values into five (named A to E). By combining these two partitions, we defined climate zonings where each geographical point can be uniquely assigned to exactly one zone, which allows an immediate explicit interpretation. The soundness of the newly calculated climate zones was tested by comparison with already published data, which used only three zones defined on climate information from the literature. The newly defined climate zones result in a more precise assignment of species distribution to the single habitats. This study provides the basis for a more detailed continental-wide ENM using a comprehensive dataset of lichen specimens which are located within 21 different climate regions.

  10. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  11. Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

  12. Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold and affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems. Potentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of growing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily observations of temper

  13. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  14. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  15. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  16. Climate variability effects on spatial soil moisture dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teuling, A.J.; Hupet, F.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Troch, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the role of interannual climate variability on spatial soil moisture variability dynamics for a field site in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Observations were made during 3 years under intermediate (1999), wet (2000), and extremely dry conditions (2003). Soil moisture variability dynamics

  17. Modelling the ecological niche of hookworm in Brazil based on climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudenda, Ntombi B; Malone, John B; Kearney, Michael T; Mischler, Paula D; Nieto, Prixia del Mar; McCarroll, Jennifer C; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2012-09-01

    The distribution of hookworm in schistosomiasis-endemic areas in Brazil was mapped based on climate suitability. Known biological requirements of hookworm were fitted to data in a monthly long-term normal climate grid (18 x 18 km) using geographical information systems. Hookworm risk models were produced using the growing degree day (GDD) water budget (WB) concept. A moisture-adjusted model (MA-GDD) was developed based on accumulation of monthly temperatures above a base temperature of 15 °C (below which there is no lifecycle progression of Necator americanus) conditional on concurrent monthly values (rain/potential, evapotranspiration) of over 0.4. A second model, designated the gradient index, was calculated based on the monthly accumulation of the product of GDD and monthly WB values (GDD x WB). Both parameters had a significant positive correlation to hookworm prevalence. In the northeastern part of Brazil (the Caatinga), low hookworm prevalence was due to low soil moisture content, while the low prevalence in southern Brazil was related to low mean monthly temperatures. Both environmental temperature and soil moisture content were found to be important parameters for predicting the prevalence of N. americanus.

  18. Modelling the ecological niche of hookworm in Brazil based on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ntombi B. Mudenda

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of hookworm in schistosomiasis-endemic areas in Brazil was mapped based on climate suitability. Known biological requirements of hookworm were fitted to data in a monthly long-term normal climate grid (18 x 18 km using geographical information systems. Hookworm risk models were produced using the growing degree day (GDD water budget (WB concept. A moisture-adjusted model (MA-GDD was developed based on accumulation of monthly temperatures above a base temperature of 15 °C (below which there is no lifecycle progression of Necator americanus conditional on concurrent monthly values (rain/potential, evapotranspiration of over 0.4. A second model, designated the gradient index, was calculated based on the monthly accumulation of the product of GDD and monthly WB values (GDD x WB. Both parameters had a significant positive correlation to hookworm prevalence. In the northeastern part of Brazil (the Caatinga, low hookworm prevalence was due to low soil moisture content, while the low prevalence in southern Brazil was related to low mean monthly temperatures. Both environmental temperature and soil moisture content were found to be important parameters for predicting the prevalence of N. americanus.

  19. Spatial distribution analysis on climatic variables in northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Information ecology is a new research area of modern ecology.Here describes spatial distribution analysis methods of four sorts of climatic variables, i.e. temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine fraction on Northeast China. First,Digital terrain models was built with large-scale maps and vector data. Then trend surface analysis and interpolation method were used to analyze the spatial distribution of these four kinds of climatic variables at three temporal scale: (1) monthly data; (2)mean monthly data of thirty years, and (3) mean annual data of thirty years. Ecological information system were used for graphics analysis on the spatial distribution of these climate variables.

  20. A mechanistic niche model for measuring species' distributional responses to seasonal temperature gradients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche--the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equilibrium with respect to the variables or gradients included in the model. Here, I present a mechanistic niche model that measures species' responses to major seasonal temperature gradients that interact with the physiology of the organism. I then use lethal physiological temperatures to parameterize the model for bird species in North and South America and show that most focal bird species are not in direct physiological equilibrium with the gradients. Results also show that most focal bird species possess broad thermal tolerances encompassing novel climates that could become available with climate change. I conclude with discussion of how mechanistic niche models may be used to (i gain insights into the processes that cause species to respond to climate change and (ii build more accurate correlative distribution models in birds and other species.

  1. The ocean's role in climate variability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Dake

    2008-01-01

    Because of its vast volume and heat capacity, the ocean contains most of the memory of the earth's ocean - atmosphere coupled system. It has been suggested that the ocean may delay global warming by absorbing large amounts of heat, that it may cause ab- rupt climate change due to its disrupted thermohaline circulation, and that it may set the time-scales for various climate oscilla- tions. Although the slow pace and persistence of oceanic variations give hope to long-range prediction, there still exist large uncer- tainties in climate predictability. Presently available observations and models are generally inadequate for studying and predicting long-term climate changes. However, some short-term fluctuations such as ENSO have been well studied and shown to be highly predictable even with simplified models.

  2. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

        Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation   Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood syst

  3. Niche-specificity and the variable fraction of the Pectobacterium pan-genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasner, J D; Marquez-Villavicencio, M; Kim, H-S; Jahn, C E; Ma, B; Biehl, B S; Rissman, A I; Mole, B; Yi, X; Yang, C-H; Dangl, J L; Grant, S R; Perna, N T; Charkowski, A O

    2008-12-01

    We compare genome sequences of three closely related soft-rot pathogens that vary in host range and geographical distribution to identify genetic differences that could account for lifestyle differences. The isolates compared, Pectobacterium atrosepticum SCRI1043, P. carotovorum WPP14, and P. brasiliensis 1692, represent diverse lineages of the genus. P. carotovorum and P. brasiliensis genome contigs, generated by 454 pyrosequencing ordered by reference to the previously published complete circular chromosome of P. atrosepticum genome and each other, account for 96% of the predicted genome size. Orthologous proteins encoded by P. carotovorum and P. brasiliensis are approximately 95% identical to each other and 92% identical to P. atrosepticum. Multiple alignment using Mauve identified a core genome of 3.9 Mb conserved among these Pectobacterium spp. Each core genome is interrupted at many points by species-specific insertions or deletions (indels) that account for approximately 0.9 to 1.1 Mb. We demonstrate that the presence of a hrpK-like type III secretion system-dependent effector protein in P. carotovorum and P. brasiliensis and its absence from P. atrosepticum is insufficient to explain variability in their response to infection in a plant. Additional genes that vary among these species include those encoding peptide toxin production, enzyme production, secretion proteins, and antibiotic production, as well as differences in more general aspects of gene regulation and metabolism that may be relevant to pathogenicity.

  4. Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

  5. Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feynman, Joan

    If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earth's atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earth's mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earth's climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene. In the second section of the paper we will discuss the suggestion ( Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2007) that climate variability was the reason agriculture developed when it did and not before.

  6. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today’s Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-01

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  7. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  8. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  9. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  10. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, D.B.; Peterson, D.L.; Hessl, A.E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  11. Activity response to climate seasonality in species with fossorial habits: a niche modeling approach using the lowland burrowing treefrog (Smilisca fodiens).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encarnación-Luévano, Alondra; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Sigala-Rodríguez, J Jesús

    2013-01-01

    The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens) across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity), and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival.

  12. Activity response to climate seasonality in species with fossorial habits: a niche modeling approach using the lowland burrowing treefrog (Smilisca fodiens.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alondra Encarnación-Luévano

    Full Text Available The importance of climatic conditions in shaping the geographic distribution of amphibian species is mainly associated to their high sensitivity to environmental conditions. How they cope with climate gradients through behavioral adaptations throughout their distribution is an important issue due to the ecological and evolutionary implications for population viability. Given their low dispersal abilities, the response to seasonal climate changes may not be migration, but behavioral and physiological adaptations. Here we tested whether shifts in climatic seasonality can predict the temporal variation of surface activity of the fossorial Lowland Burrowing Treefrog (Smilisca fodiens across its geographical distribution. We employed Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM to perform a monthly analysis of spatial variation of suitable climatic conditions (defined by the July conditions, the month of greatest activity, and then evaluated the geographical correspondence of monthly projections with the occurrence data per month. We found that the species activity, based on the species' occurrence data, corresponds with the latitudinal variation of suitable climatic conditions. Due to the behavioral response of this fossorial frog to seasonal climate variation, we suggest that precipitation and temperature have played a major role in the definition of geographical and temporal distribution patterns, as well as in shaping behavioral adaptations to local climatic conditions. This highlights the influence of macroclimate on shaping activity patterns and the important role of fossorials habits to meet the environmental requirements necessary for survival.

  13. Combining a climatic niche model of an invasive fungus with its host species distributions to identify risks to natural assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Kriticos

    Full Text Available Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l. is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets.

  14. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CROP AREA ON MAIZE YIELD AND VARIABILITY IN GHANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry De-Graft Acquah

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This paper examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of maize yield in Ghana. The Just and Pope stochastic production function using the Cobb-Douglas functional form was employed. The results show that average maize yield is positively related to crop area and negatively related to rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, increase in crop area and temperature will enlarge maize yield variability while rainfall increase will decrease the variability in maize yield.

  15. Climate variability according to triple saros gravity cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Livingston, William R

    2013-01-01

    I describe a climate model which corresponds directly to eclipse cycles. The theory is based upon a similarity between the 54 year triple saros eclipse period and the periodicity of drought. I argue that eclipse shadows are an indication of gravity cycles, and that variable lunar gravitation is the most significant aspect of the eclipse process. I reinforce the idea that lunar gravitational forcing has a profound effect on the water vapor in Earth's atmosphere, and can affect the density and location of clouds. I explore the possibility that decadal variability of ocean surface levels may be explained by triple saros gravity cycles. I point out that lunar gravitation was excluded from the most significant climate report of 2007, and that climate data contradictions have been overlooked by researchers. I focus on the value of data that has not been aggregated into global averages. I touch upon the history of global warming, and I offer predictions based upon 54 year climate periodicity.

  16. Biogeographic ranges do not support niche theory in radiating Canary Island plant clades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinbauer, Manuel; Field, Richard; Fernández-Palacios, José María

    2016-01-01

    in allopatry. Main conclusions: The expectations from niche conservatism were frequently not met; instead our results suggest considerable climatic niche lability. All significant differences in climatic niche differentiation were opposite to the predictions from competitive displacement. These forces may...

  17. Terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs) at a glance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stitt, Susan; Dwyer, John; Dye, Dennis; Josberger, Edward

    2011-01-01

    The Global Terrestrial Observing System, Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites all support consistent global land observations and measurements. To accomplish this goal, the Global Terrestrial Observing System defined 'essential climate variables' as measurements of atmosphere, oceans, and land that are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation and that are needed to meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and requirements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following are the climate variables defined by the Global Terrestrial Observing System that relate to terrestrial measurements. Several of them are currently measured most appropriately by in-place observations, whereas others are suitable for measurement by remote sensing technologies. The U.S. Geological Survey is the steward of the Landsat archive, satellite imagery collected from 1972 to the present, that provides a potential basis for deriving long-term, global-scale, accurate, timely and consistent measurements of many of these essential climate variables.

  18. Mediterranean climate variability during the Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.S.L. CASFORD

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a study on four high sedimentation-rate marine cores with suppressed bioturbation effects, recovered along the northern margin of the eastern Mediterranean. We demonstrate that this region, central to the development of modern civilisation, was substantially affected throughout the Holocene by a distinct cycle of cooling events on the order of 2o C. In the best-preserved cases the onset of these events appears particularly abrupt, within less than a century. The cooling events typically lasted several centuries, and there are compelling indications that they were associated with increased aridity in the Levantine/NE African sector (Rossignol-Strick, 1995; 1998; Alley et al., 1997; Hassan, 1986; 1996; 1997a,b; McKim Malville et al., 1998. Several of these episodes appear coincident with cultural reorganisations, with indigenous developments (eg. cattle domestication, new technologies and population migrations and fusion of peoples and ideas (Hassan, 1986; 1996; 1997a,b; McKim Malville, 1998. We infer that climatic events of a likely high-latitude origin (O’Brien et al., 1995; Bond et al., 1997; Mayewski et al., 1997; Alley et al., 1997 caused cooling and aridity in and around the eastern Mediterranean via a direct atmospheric link, and therefore played an important role in the development of modern civilisation.

  19. Modeling Surgery: A New Way Toward Understanding Earth Climate Variability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Lixin; LIU Zhengyu; Robert Gallimore; Michael Notaro; Robert Jacob

    2005-01-01

    A new modeling concept, referred to as Modeling Surgery, has been recently developed at University of Wisconsin-Madison. It is specifically designed to diagnose coupled feedbacks between different climate components as well as climatic teleconnections within a specific component through systematically modifying the coupling configurations and teleconnective pathways. It thus provides a powerful means for identifying the causes and mechanisms of low-frequency variability in the Earth's climate system. In this paper, we will give a short review of our recent progress in this new area.

  20. Climatic variables and malaria incidence in Dehradun, Uttaranchal, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Pemola Devi ; R.K. Jauhari

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Mosquito-borne diseases particularly malaria and Japanese encephalitis(JE are becoming most dreaded health problems in Dehradun district. Keeping in view that theclimatic factors particularly temperature and rainfall may alter the distribution of vector species–increasing or decreasing the ranges, depending on weather conditions that are favourable orunfavourable for mosquito breeding, it is aimed to find out the effect of climatic factors on malariaincidence with particular emphasis to capture the essential events as a result of climatic variability.Methods: Mosquito sampling and identification was done using WHO entomological methods andfollow-up of recognised keys and catalogues. Data on malaria incidence and meteorologicalinformation were gathered in a collaborative study with the District Malaria Office, and the ForestResearch Institute, Dehradun respectively. Pearson’s correlation analysis was applied for establishingrelationship between climate variables and malaria transmission.Results: Higher positive correlation of association was found between monthly parasite incidenceand climatic variables (temperature, rainfall and humidity. However, highest significant correlationwas found between rainfall and malaria incidence (r = 0.718, p < 0.0001 when the data were staggeredto allow a lag of one-month.Interpretation & conclusion: Climatic variables that predict the presence or absence of malaria arelikely to be the best suited for forecasting the distribution of this disease at the edges of its range

  1. Estimating niche width using stable isotopes in the face of habitat variability: a modelling case study in the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, David O; Buhl, Jerome; Lee, Raymond W; Simpson, Stephen J; Holmes, Sebastian P

    2012-01-01

    Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of dietary breadth and foraging strategies on predator signatures. Outputs from the models reveal that isotopic niche widths can be greater for populations of dietary specialists rather than for generalists, which contravenes what is generally accepted in the literature. When a range of different mixing models are applied to determine if the conversion from δ to p-space can be used to improve model accuracy, predator signature variation is increased rather than model precision. Furthermore the mixing models applied failed to correctly identify dietary specialists and/or to accurately estimate diet contributions that may identify resource partitioning. The results presented illustrate the need to collect sufficiently large sample sizes, in excess of what is collected under most current studies, across the complete distribution of a species and its prey, before attempts to use stable isotopes to make inferences about niche width can be made.

  2. Estimating niche width using stable isotopes in the face of habitat variability: a modelling case study in the marine environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David O Cummings

    Full Text Available Distributions of stable isotopes have been used to infer an organism's trophic niche width, the 'isotopic niche', and examine resource partitioning. Spatial variation in the isotopic composition of prey may however confound the interpretation of isotopic signatures especially when foragers exploit resources across numerous locations. In this study the isotopic compositions from marine assemblages are modelled to determine the role of variation in the signature of prey items and the effect of dietary breadth and foraging strategies on predator signatures. Outputs from the models reveal that isotopic niche widths can be greater for populations of dietary specialists rather than for generalists, which contravenes what is generally accepted in the literature. When a range of different mixing models are applied to determine if the conversion from δ to p-space can be used to improve model accuracy, predator signature variation is increased rather than model precision. Furthermore the mixing models applied failed to correctly identify dietary specialists and/or to accurately estimate diet contributions that may identify resource partitioning. The results presented illustrate the need to collect sufficiently large sample sizes, in excess of what is collected under most current studies, across the complete distribution of a species and its prey, before attempts to use stable isotopes to make inferences about niche width can be made.

  3. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...... common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long...

  4. Exploring spectral wave climate variability using a weather type approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendez, F.; Espejo, A.; Camus, P.; Losada, I.

    2012-12-01

    Traditional approaches for determining wave climate variability in scales from month to decades have been broadly focused on aggregated or statistical parameters such as significant wave height, wave energy flux or mean wave direction. These studies, although revealing the major general modes of wave climate variability and trends, do not take in consideration the complexity of the gravity wave fields. Because ocean waves are the response of both local and remote winds, analyzing directional full spectrum variability can throw light on atmosphere circulation not only over the immediate ocean region, but also over a more broadly basin-scale. In this work we use the weather type approach (data mining) to explore wave climate variability in the frequency-direction domain. This approach identifies daily to 15 daily synoptic modes (depending on the basin) of the sea level pressure (from NCEP/NCAR) over the effective fetch of one selected ocean point, finding bi-univocal relations between each synoptic pattern (weather type) and each spectral wave energy distribution. Thus, it allows exploring wave spectrum (from GOW reanalisys, WaveWatchIII) covering all temporal scales of variability: daily, monthly, seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, long term trends and future climate change projections. The proposed scheme provides valuable information improving our ocean waves understanding. Moreover this new approach can support offshore wind-wave energy farms optimization or a more rigorous determination of wave induced sediment transport between others applications.

  5. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  6. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  7. Climate variability and predictability in Northwest Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baddour, O.; Djellouli, Y.

    2003-04-01

    Northwest Africa defined here as the area including Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, occupies a large territory in North Africa with an area exceeding 3.5 million km2. The geographical contrast is very important: while most of the southern part is desert, the northern and northwestern parts exhibit a contrasting geography including large flat areas in the western part of Morocco, northern Algeria and eastern part of Tunisia and the formidable Atlas mountains barrier extends from south west of Morocco toward north west of Tunisia crossing central Morocco and north Algeria. Agriculture is one of major socio-economic activities in the region with an extensive cash-crop for exporting to Europe especially from Morocco and Tunisia. The influence of the recurring droughts during the 80s and 90s was very crucial for the economic and societal aspects of the region. In Morocco, severe droughts have caused GDP fluctuation within past 20 years from 10% increase down to negative values in some particular years. Recent studies have investigated seasonal rainfall variability and prediction over MOROCCO in the framework of regional and international collaboration. Results from this work has shown that the main general circulation feature associated with the rainfall variability within Morocco is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The relationship is in fact due to the major role played by the AZORES high pressure with its role in modulating the main position of the active synoptic systems in the north Atlantic area and therefore in modulating the frequency and the intensity of the weather systems that impact the western part of the region. Mediterranean sea plays also major role in the mid of the region. In this paper we applied EOF technique on 500 hPa. The data used are monthly reanalysis NCEP/NCAR analyses for November from 1960 to 1990 climatological time series. Correlation analysis is then performed between EOF time series and global 4x4 degre SST anomalies. The results we

  8. Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

    2016-04-01

    Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.

  9. Effect of Flux Adjustments on Temperature Variability in Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, P.; Bell, J.; Covey, C.; Sloan, L.

    1999-12-27

    It has been suggested that ''flux adjustments'' in climate models suppress simulated temperature variability. If true, this might invalidate the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases since 1860 are anthropogenic, since this conclusion is based in part on estimates of natural temperature variability derived from flux-adjusted models. We assess variability of surface air temperatures in 17 simulations of internal temperature variability submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By comparing variability in flux-adjusted vs. non-flux adjusted simulations, we find no evidence that flux adjustments suppress temperature variability in climate models; other, largely unknown, factors are much more important in determining simulated temperature variability. Therefore the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases are anthropogenic cannot be questioned on the grounds that it is based in part on results of flux-adjusted models. Also, reducing or eliminating flux adjustments would probably do little to improve simulations of temperature variability.

  10. Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Hong-Li; Jin, Fei-Fei; Song, Lianchun; Lu, Bo; Tian, Ben; Zuo, Jinqing; Liu, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhao, Chongbo; Nie, Yu; Zhang, Peiqun; Ba, Jin; Wu, Yujie; Wan, Jianghua; Yan, Yuping; Zhou, Fang

    2017-02-01

    Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most important predictability sources in subseasonal-interannual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the research and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons (EAWM and EASM, respectively), on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system (CPPS) and completed a hindcast experiment for the period 1991-2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is systematically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improvements in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC's climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.

  11. Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Knuth, Kevin H; Curry, Charles T; Huyser, Karen A; Wheeler, Kevin R; Rossow, William B

    2013-01-01

    A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist suf...

  12. Climate variability in West Greenland during the past 1500 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    dos Santos Ribeiro, Sofia Isabel; Moros, Matthias; Ellegaard, Marianne;

    2012-01-01

    document late-Holocene climate variability in West Greenland as inferred from a marine sediment record from the outer Disko Bay. Organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts and other palynomorphs were used to reconstruct environmental changes in the area through the last c. 1500 years at 30–40 years resolution....... Sea ice cover and primary productivity were identified as the two main factors driving dinoflagellate cyst community changes through time. Our data provide evidence for an opposite climate trend in West Greenland relative to the NE Atlantic region from c. AD 500 to 1050. For the same period, sea......Ribeiro, S., Moros, M., Ellegaard, M. & Kuijpers, A. 2012 (January): Climate variability in West Greenland during the past 1500 years: evidence from a high-resolution marine palynological record from Disko Bay. Boreas, Vol. 41, pp. 68–83. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00216.x. ISSN 0300-9483. Here we...

  13. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Basso, Bruno; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Biernath, Christian; Brisson, Nadine; Challinor, Andrew J.; Doltra, Jordi; Gayler, Sebastian; Goldberg, Richard; Grant, Robert F.; Heng, Lee; Hooker, Josh; Hunt, Leslie A.; Ingwersen, Joachim; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Osborne, Tom M.; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Rötter, Reimund P.; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Steduto, Pasquale; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Travasso, Maria; Waha, Katharina; Wallach, Daniel; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and

  14. Phylogenetic assemblage structure of North American trees is more strongly shaped by glacial–interglacial climate variability in gymnosperms than in angiosperms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ziyu; Sandel, Brody Steven; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial-interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic edemism, patterns of unique lineages in restricted ranges is also related to glacial......-interglacial climate variability and needs more attention. We used a refined phylogeny of both angiosperms and gymnosperms to map phylogenetic diversity, clustering and endemism of North American trees in 100-km grid cells, and climate change velocity since Last Glacial Maximum together with postglacial accessibility...... is associated with higher angiosperm endemism, while higher postglacial accessibility is linked to to more phylogenetic clustering and endemism in gymnosperms. iii) Factors linked to glacial-interglacial climate change had stronger effects on gymnosperms than on angiosperms. These results suggest...

  15. Decadal Variability of Clouds and Comparison with Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, H.; Shen, T. J.; Jiang, J. H.; Yung, Y. L.

    2014-12-01

    An apparent climate regime shift occurred around 1998/1999, when the steady increase of global-mean surface temperature appeared to hit a hiatus. Coherent decadal variations are found in atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycles. Using 30-year cloud observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, we examine the decadal variability of clouds and associated cloud radiative effects on surface warming. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is performed. After removing the seasonal cycle and ENSO signal in the 30-year data, we find that the leading EOF modes clearly represent a decadal variability in cloud fraction, well correlated with the indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The cloud radiative effects associated with decadal variations of clouds suggest a positive cloud feedback, which would reinforce the global warming hiatus by a net cloud cooling after 1998/1999. Climate model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature are compared with satellite observed cloud decadal variability. Copyright:

  16. Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Ghil, Michael; Simonnet, Eric; 10.1016/j.physd.2008.03.036

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural ...

  17. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  18. Mid-Holocene regional reorganization of climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. W. Wirtz

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We integrate 130 globally distributed proxy time series to refine the understanding of climate variability during the Holocene. Cyclic anomalies and temporal trends in periodicity from the Lower to the Upper Holocene are extracted by combining Lomb-Scargle Fourier-transformed spectra with bootstrapping. Results were cross-checked by counting events in the time series. Main outcomes are: First, the propensity of the climate system to fluctuations is a region specific property. Many records of adjacent sites reveal a similar change in variability although they belong to different proxy types (e.g., δ18O, lithic composition. Secondly, at most sites, irreversible change occured in the Mid-Holocene. We suggest that altered ocean circulation together with slightly modified coupling intensity between regional climate subsystems around the 5.5 kyr BP event (termination of the African Humid Period were responsible for the shift. Fluctuations especially intensified along a pan-American corridor. This may have led to an unequal crisis probability for early human civilizations in the Old and New World. Our study did not produce evidence for millennial scale cyclicity in some solar activity proxies for the Upper Holocene, nor for a privileged role of the prominent 250, 550, 900 and 1450 yr cycles. This lack of global periodicities corroborates the regional character of climate variability.

  19. Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Kevin H.; Golera, Anthony; Curry, Charles T.; Huyser, Karen A.; Kevin R. Wheeler; Rossow, William B.

    2005-01-01

    The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

  20. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavita Tariyal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayan region represents enormous variability of climates, hydrological and ecological systems, plus a diversity of cultures and communities. It is an essentiality to the ecological security of the Indian landmass, through providing forest cover, feeding recurrent rivers that are the source of potable water, irrigation, and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich foundation for high value agriculture, and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the troposphere and the consequential global warming is posing a great environmental threat to water and food security at universal level. Change in climate may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. This potential variability in climate will have a serious impact on several ecosystem services, such as cleaning water and removing carbon from the atmosphere. Various services of ecosystems viz. land and water resources, agriculture, biodiversity will experience a wide range of stresses together with pests and pathogens, invasive species, atmospheric pollution, acute events, wildfires and floods. Direct stresses posed due to climate change may get intensified through high temperatures, reduced water availability, and altered frequency of extreme events and severe storms. Climate change will potentially make a threat on the availability of, and access to, water resources. The Himalayan ecosystem is vulnerable to the impacts and consequences of a changes on account of natural causes, b climate change resulting from human-induced emissions and c developmental paradigms of the modern society. Adaptation factors in the element of ‘sustainability’ into development initiatives and provides for additional measures and resources to safeguard environmental gains against climate impacts.

  1. The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Edna; Coelho, Micheline; Oliver, Leuda; Massad, Eduardo

    2011-12-01

    In this work we correlated dengue cases with climatic variables for the city of Singapore. This was done through a Poisson Regression Model (PRM) that considers dengue cases as the dependent variable and the climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity) as independent variables. We also used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to choose the variables that influence in the increase of the number of dengue cases in Singapore, where PC₁ (Principal component 1) is represented by temperature and rainfall and PC₂ (Principal component 2) is represented by relative humidity. We calculated the probability of occurrence of new cases of dengue and the relative risk of occurrence of dengue cases influenced by climatic variable. The months from July to September showed the highest probabilities of the occurrence of new cases of the disease throughout the year. This was based on an analysis of time series of maximum and minimum temperature. An interesting result was that for every 2-10°C of variation of the maximum temperature, there was an average increase of 22.2-184.6% in the number of dengue cases. For the minimum temperature, we observed that for the same variation, there was an average increase of 26.1-230.3% in the number of the dengue cases from April to August. The precipitation and the relative humidity, after analysis of correlation, were discarded in the use of Poisson Regression Model because they did not present good correlation with the dengue cases. Additionally, the relative risk of the occurrence of the cases of the disease under the influence of the variation of temperature was from 1.2-2.8 for maximum temperature and increased from 1.3-3.3 for minimum temperature. Therefore, the variable temperature (maximum and minimum) was the best predictor for the increased number of dengue cases in Singapore.

  2. Does Irrigation Buffer Agriculture from Climatic Variability? - Evidence from India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fishman, R.

    2010-12-01

    One of the key potential benefits of water storage and irrigation is the buffering of agricultural production from natural fluctuations in rainfall, be they intra-seasonal, inter-annual or decadal, by storing excess rainfall for times when it is deficient. Economically, the ability to protect food production and income from climatic and weather variability has always been important, especially in developing countries. This ability can be a key asset in adaptation to the uncertainties and enhanced variability in precipitation that is predicted to accompany climate change. It is therefore important to investigate empirically how well irrigation of different kinds has performed in this regard. We use agricultural production statistics in India, a country whose fortune has always been at the mercy of the stochastic monsoon rains, to investigate this question statistically, and study the performance of both surface and groundwater irrigation in different hydro-geologies.

  3. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  4. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E.; Craft, Meggan E.

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  5. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis E Escobar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches can fail to generate robust study designs, generating incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables, identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  6. Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of wild barley: refugia, large-scale post-LGM range expansion and limited mid-future climate threats?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Russell

    Full Text Available Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare. Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security.

  7. Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

    1994-01-01

    Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

  8. Monofractal nature of air temperature signals reveals their climate variability

    OpenAIRE

    Deliège, Adrien; Nicolay, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    We use the discrete "wavelet transform microscope" to show that the surface air temperature signals of weather stations selected in Europe are monofractal. This study reveals that the information obtained in this way are richer than previous works studying long range correlations in meteorological stations. The approach presented here allows to bind the H\\"older exponents with the climate variability. We also establish that such a link does not exist with methods previously carried out.

  9. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  10. Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsolver, Joel G.; Buckley, Lauren B.

    2015-01-01

    How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. PMID:25631995

  11. An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology

    1995-12-31

    A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary

  12. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    OpenAIRE

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

        Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation   Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood system in southern Africa. The main objectives of this study were first to understand the nature and sources of vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change, and second to use this knowledge to eva...

  13. Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo

    2015-04-01

    Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.

  14. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ploubidis George B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622 acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility, Odds Ratio (OR = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.4 - 4.0, endanger their life (perceived severity, OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1, or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5. Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1 or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2 for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4 or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2

  15. Saharan dust, climate variability, and asthma in Grenada, the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akpinar-Elci, Muge; Martin, Francis E.; Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael

    2015-11-01

    Saharan dust is transported across the Atlantic and interacts with the Caribbean seasonal climatic conditions, becoming respirable and contributing to asthma presentments at the emergency department. This study investigated the relationships among dust, climatic variables, and asthma-related visits to the emergency room in Grenada. All asthma visits to the emergency room ( n = 4411) over 5 years (2001-2005) were compared to the dust cover and climatic variables for the corresponding period. Variation in asthma was associated with change in dust concentration ( R 2 = 0.036, p cultures, population sizes, industrialization level, and economies. Therefore, different than from the studies in Trinidad and Barbados, Grenada is a non-industrialized low-income small island without major industrialized air pollution addition; asthma visits were inversely related to mean sea level pressure ( R 2 = 0.123, p = 0.006) and positively correlated with relative humidity ( R 2 = 0.593, p = 0.85). Saharan dust in conjunction with seasonal humidity allows for inhalable particulate matter that exacerbates asthma among residents in the Caribbean island of Grenada. These findings contribute evidence suggesting a broader public health impact from Saharan dust. Thus, this research may inform strategic planning of resource allocation among the Caribbean public health agencies.

  16. Niche explosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normark, Benjamin B; Johnson, Norman A

    2011-05-01

    The following syndrome of features occurs in several groups of phytophagous insects: (1) wingless females, (2) dispersal by larvae, (3) woody hosts, (4) extreme polyphagy, (5) high abundance, resulting in status as economic pests, (6) invasiveness, and (7) obligate parthenogenesis in some populations. If extreme polyphagy is defined as feeding on 20 or more families of hostplants, this syndrome is found convergently in several species of bagworm moths, tussock moths, root weevils, and 5 families of scale insects. We hypothesize that extreme polyphagy in these taxa results from "niche explosion", a positive feedback loop connecting large population size to broad host range. The niche explosion has a demographic component (sometimes called the "amplification effect" in studies of pathogens) as well as a population-genetic component, due mainly to the increased effectiveness of natural selection in larger populations. The frequent origins of parthenogenesis in extreme polyphages are, in our interpretation, a consequence of this increased effectiveness of natural selection and consequent reduced importance of sexuality. The niche explosion hypothesis makes detailed predictions about the comparative genomics and population genetics of extreme polyphages and related specialists. It has a number of potentially important implications, including an explanation for the lack of observed trade-offs between generalists and specialists, a re-interpretation of the ecological correlates of parthenogenesis, and a general expectation that Malthusian population explosions may be amplified by Darwinian effects.

  17. Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Mars Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1996-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate the nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mars'present climate. We have applied a three-dimensional climate model based on the full hydrostatic primitive equations to determine the spatial, but primarily, the temporal structures of the planet's large-scale circulation as it evolves during a given seasonal advance, and, over multi-annual cycles. The particular climate model applies simplified physical parameterizations and is computationally efficient. It could thus easily be integrated in a perpetual season or advancing season configuration, as well as over many Mars years. We have assessed both high and low-frequency components of the circulation (i.e., motions having periods of Omicron(2-10 days) or greater than Omicron(10 days), respectively). Results from this investigation have explored the basic issue whether Mars' climate system is naturally 'chaotic' associated with nonlinear interactions of the large-scale circulation-regardless of any allowance for year-to-year variations in external forcing mechanisms. Titles of papers presented at scientific conferences and a manuscript to be submitted to the scientific literature are provided. An overview of a areas for further investigation is also presented.

  18. Mapping the climate: guidance on appropriate techniques to map climate variables and their uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, N. R.; Hartley, A.; Hemming, D.

    2012-02-01

    Maps are a crucial asset in communicating climate science to a diverse audience, and there is a wealth of software available to analyse and visualise climate information. However, this availability makes it easy to create poor maps as users often lack an underlying cartographic knowledge. Unlike traditional cartography, where many known standards allow maps to be interpreted easily, there is no standard mapping approach used to represent uncertainty (in climate or other information). Consequently, a wide range of techniques have been applied for this purpose, and users may spend unnecessary time trying to understand the mapping approach rather than interpreting the information presented. Furthermore, communicating and visualising uncertainties in climate data and climate change projections, using for example ensemble based approaches, presents additional challenges for mapping that require careful consideration. The aim of this paper is to provide background information and guidance on suitable techniques for mapping climate variables, including uncertainty. We assess a range of existing and novel techniques for mapping variables and uncertainties, comparing "intrinsic" approaches that use colour in much the same way as conventional thematic maps with "extrinsic" approaches that incorporate additional geometry such as points or features. Using cartographic knowledge and lessons learned from mapping in different disciplines we propose the following 6 general mapping guidelines to develop a suitable mapping technique that represents both magnitude and uncertainty in climate data: text-indent:1em;">- use a sensible sequential or diverging colour scheme; text-indent:1em;">- use appropriate colour symbolism if it is applicable; text-indent:1em;">- ensure the map is usable by colour blind people; text-indent:1em;">- use a data classification scheme that does not misrepresent the data; text-indent:1em;">- use a map projection that does not distort the data text-indent:1em

  19. Impacts of forced and unforced climate variability on extreme floods using a large climate ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martel, Jean-Luc; Brissette, François; Chen, Jie

    2016-04-01

    Frequency analysis has been widely used for the inference of flood magnitude and rainfall intensity required in engineering design. However, this inference is based on the concept of stationarity. How accurate is it when taking into account climate variability (i.e. both internal- and externally-forced variabilities)? Even in the absence of human-induced climate change, the short temporal horizon of the historical records renders this task extremely difficult to accomplish. To overcome this situation, large ensembles of simulations from a single climate model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on precipitation and streamflow extremes. Thus, the objective of this project is to determine the reliability of return period estimates using the CanESM2 large ensemble. The spring flood annual maxima metric over snowmelt-dominated watersheds was selected to take into account the limits of global circulation models to properly simulate convective precipitation. The GR4J hydrological model coupled with the CemaNeige snow model was selected and calibrated using gridded observation datasets on snowmelt-dominated watersheds in Quebec, Canada. Using the hydrological model, streamflows were simulated using bias corrected precipitation and temperature data from the 50 members of CanESM2. Flood frequency analyses on the spring flood annual maxima were then computed using the Gumbel distribution with a 90% confidence interval. The 20-year return period estimates were then compared to assess the impact of natural climate variability over the 1971-2000 return period. To assess the impact of global warming, this methodology was then repeated for three time slices: reference period (1971-2000), near future (2036-2065) and far future (2071-2100). Over the reference period results indicate that the relative error between the return period estimates of two members can be up to 25%. Regarding the near future and far future periods, natural climate variability of extreme

  20. Attributing Sources of Variability in Regional Climate Model Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, C. G.; Sain, S. R.

    2008-12-01

    Variability in regional climate model (RCM) projections may be due to a number of factors, including the choice of RCM itself, the boundary conditions provided by a driving general circulation model (GCM), and the choice of emission scenario. We describe a new statistical methodology, Gaussian Process ANOVA, which allows us to decompose these sources of variability while also taking account of correlations in the output across space. Our hierarchical Bayesian framework easily allows joint inference about high probability envelopes for the functions, as well as decompositions of total variance that vary over the domain of the functions. These may be used to create maps illustrating the magnitude of each source of variability across the domain of the regional model. We use this method to analyze temperature and precipitation data from the Prudence Project, an RCM intercomparison project in which RCMs were crossed with GCM forcings and scenarios in a designed experiment. This work was funded by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).

  1. Estimating maritime snow density from seasonal climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormann, K. J.; Evans, J. P.; Westra, S.; McCabe, M. F.; Painter, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    Snow density is a complex parameter that influences thermal, optical and mechanical snow properties and processes. Depth-integrated properties of snowpacks, including snow density, remain very difficult to obtain remotely. Observations of snow density are therefore limited to in-situ point locations. In maritime snowfields such as those in Australia and in parts of the western US, snow densification rates are enhanced and inter-annual variability is high compared to continental snow regions. In-situ snow observation networks in maritime climates often cannot characterise the variability in snowpack properties at spatial and temporal resolutions required for many modelling and observations-based applications. Regionalised density-time curves are commonly used to approximate snow densities over broad areas. However, these relationships have limited spatial applicability and do not allow for interannual variability in densification rates, which are important in maritime environments. Physically-based density models are relatively complex and rely on empirical algorithms derived from limited observations, which may not represent the variability observed in maritime snow. In this study, seasonal climate factors were used to estimate late season snow densities using multiple linear regressions. Daily snow density estimates were then obtained by projecting linearly to fresh snow densities at the start of the season. When applied spatially, the daily snow density fields compare well to in-situ observations across multiple sites in Australia, and provide a new method for extrapolating existing snow density datasets in maritime snow environments. While the relatively simple algorithm for estimating snow densities has been used in this study to constrain snowmelt rates in a temperature-index model, the estimates may also be used to incorporate variability in snow depth to snow water equivalent conversion.

  2. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2016-08-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  3. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  4. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  5. Profound climatic effects on two East Asian black-throated tits (Ave: Aegithalidae, revealed by ecological niche models and phylogeographic analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanyin Dai

    Full Text Available Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis-concinnus with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs. We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG, last glacial maximum (LGM and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis-concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory.

  6. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  7. Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. L. Balascio

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Small glaciers and ice caps respond rapidly to climate variations and records of their past extent provide information on the natural envelope of past climate variability. Millennial-scale trends in Holocene glacier size are well documented and correspond with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, there is only sparse and fragmentary evidence for higher frequency variations in glacier size because in many Northern Hemisphere regions glacier advances of the past few hundred years were the most extensive and destroyed the geomorphic evidence of ice growth and retreat during the past several thousand years. Thus, most glacier records have been of limited use for investigating centennial scale climate forcing and feedback mechanisms. Here we report a continuous record of glacier activity for the last 9.5 ka from southeast Greenland, derived from high-resolution measurements on a proglacial lake sediment sequence. Physical and geochemical parameters show that the glaciers responded to previously documented Northern Hemisphere climatic excursions, including the "8.2 ka" cooling event, the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Neoglacial cooling, and 20th Century warming. In addition, the sediments indicate centennial-scale oscillations in glacier size during the late Holocene. Beginning at 4.1 ka, a series of abrupt glacier advances occurred, each lasting ~100 years and followed by a period of retreat, that were superimposed on a gradual trend toward larger glacier size. Thus, while declining summer insolation caused long-term cooling and glacier expansions during the late Holocene, climate system dynamics resulted in repeated episodes of glacier expansion and retreat on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. These episodes coincided with ice rafting events in the North Atlantic Ocean and periods of regional ice cap expansion, which confirms their regional significance and indicates that considerable glacier activity on these timescales is a

  8. Climate variability and wildfire risk and occurrence in northern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Codron, J. C.; Rasilla, D.; Diego, C.; Carracedo, V.

    2009-04-01

    In spite of their reputation of wetness, wildfires are a frequent event in Cantabria (Northern Spain), but their seasonality does not match the typical warm season maximum generalized in most of the Iberian Peninsula. They occur at the end of the winter and the beginning of the spring (January to March), being mostly anthropogenically triggered due to the necessity of preparing pastures in the uplands. However, catastrophic episodes of generalized burning are controlled by different atmospheric mechanisms, namely the occurrence of "Suradas", a downslope windstorms which combines high winds speeds and low humidities, and long periods of drought in late fall and winter. This contribution analyzes long term trends (1961 onwards) of several climatic variables during the highest wildfire risk period in order to assess to what extent the occurrence of wildfires may be linked to the recent climatic variability. Raw meteorological values of temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation are transformed into a well-known meteorological fire weather index, the Canadian Forest Fire Index (FWI). Besides, monthly values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index we used to assess the spatial and temporal magnitude and intensity of droughts. Our results show that the regional climate has become warmer and drier, due to the combined effects of increases in temperatures, sunshine duration, and the decrease in relative humidity and precipitation, variables that are likely to play an important role in drought. Unknown in the 60s, 70s and most of the 80s, drought has become a relatively frequent phenomenon during the last two decades, and, in fact, the two most extreme episodes of drought at century scale, during 1989-1990 and 1993, occur in the 90. However, both the frequency and the intensity of "Suradas" have reduced, and consequently, the high fire risk episodes are now less frequent, but their absolute maximum values remain unchanged. Those regional climate trends are strongly

  9. Climatic niche and neutral genetic diversity of the six Iberian pine species: a retrospective and prospective view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, A; Robledo-Arnuncio, J J; González-Martínez, S C; Smouse, P E; Alía, R

    2010-04-01

    Quaternary climatic fluctuations have left contrasting historical footprints on the neutral genetic diversity patterns of existing populations of different tree species. We should expect the demography, and consequently the neutral genetic structure, of taxa less tolerant to particular climatic extremes to be more sensitive to long-term climate fluctuations. We explore this hypothesis here by sampling all six pine species found in the Iberian Peninsula (2464 individuals, 105 populations), using a common set of chloroplast microsatellite markers, and by looking at the association between neutral genetic diversity and species-specific climatic requirements. We found large variation in neutral genetic diversity and structure among Iberian pines, with cold-enduring mountain species (Pinus uncinata, P. sylvestris and P. nigra) showing substantially greater diversity than thermophilous taxa (P. pinea and P. halepensis). Within species, we observed a significant positive correlation between population genetic diversity and summer precipitation for some of the mountain pines. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypotheses that: (i) more thermophilous species have been subjected to stronger demographic fluctuations in the past, as a consequence of their maladaptation to recurrent glacial cold stages; and (ii) altitudinal migrations have allowed the maintenance of large effective population sizes and genetic variation in cold-tolerant species, especially in more humid regions. In the light of these results and hypotheses, we discuss some potential genetic consequences of impending climate change.

  10. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  11. Precipitation variability and the sugarcane climate demand in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, V. R.; de Avila, A. M. H.; Blain, G.; Zullo, J., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    This study presents the precipitation variability in São Paulo state/Brazil considering the climate demand for high sugarcane productivity. The Brazilian sugarcane and the bioethanol chain are facing an increase demand in response of the biofuel industry expansion. The productivity improvement is the key point to face the challenges about the land expansion in the Brazilian agriculture. The sugarcane phenology is climate dependent even being efficient in the decarboxylation process. The sprouting, growing, yield and the sugar content are determined by the climate. The accumulated rainy days during the pre harvest or more than 180 days of dry period can reduce the sugar content during the maturation process. Daily rainfall time series for the period 1960-2003 from 210 rain gauges at São Paulo state - the major Brazilian producer - are used. We subset the time series in the annual, seasonal, ten-day totals and dry and wet spells analysis. We used the mann- kendall non-parametric test to calculate the trends. The annual, the seasonal totals and the dry and wet spells did not showed a significant change in time. However, the ten-day total analysis in the beginning of the rainy season - i.e. in October - showed an interesting changing pattern - 24% of gauges showed a significant negative trend (p_value<0.1). These gauges are located in specific regions with the highest sugarcane production. Also, the October totals showed significant and negative trends (p_value<0.1) for more than 95% of precipitation gauges. These results are strongly indicating a longer dry season in the last twenty years. These changes in the precipitation variability can be related with the instability of the sugarcane market in Brazil in the last years.

  12. Evidence of niche shift and global invasion potential of the Tawny Crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sunil; LeBrun, Edward G; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Stabach, Jared A; McDonald, Danny L; Oi, David H; LaPolla, John S

    2015-10-01

    Analysis of an invasive species' niche shift between native and introduced ranges, along with potential distribution maps, can provide valuable information about its invasive potential. The tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva, is a rapidly emerging and economically important invasive species in the southern United States. It is originally from east-central South America and has also invaded Colombia and the Caribbean Islands. Our objectives were to generate a global potential distribution map for N. fulva, identify important climatic drivers associated with its current distribution, and test whether N. fulva's realized climatic niche has shifted across its invasive range. We used MaxEnt niche model to map the potential distribution of N. fulva using its native and invaded range occurrences and climatic variables. We used principal component analysis methods for investigating potential shifts in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva during invasion. We found strong evidence for a shift in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva across its invasive range. Our models predicted potentially suitable habitat for N. fulva in the United States and other parts of the world. Our analyses suggest that the majority of observed occurrences of N. fulva in the United States represent stabilizing populations. Mean diurnal range in temperature, degree days at ≥10°C, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important variables associated with N. fulva distribution. The climatic niche expansion demonstrated in our study may suggest significant plasticity in the ability of N. fulva to survive in areas with diverse temperature ranges shown by its tolerance for environmental conditions in the southern United States, Caribbean Islands, and Colombia. The risk maps produced in this study can be useful in preventing N. fulva's future spread, and in managing and monitoring currently infested areas.

  13. Spatial distribution of sand fly species (Psychodidae: Phlebtominae), ecological niche, and climatic regionalization in zoonotic foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis, southwest of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Sahar; Bordbar, Ali; Rastaghi, Ahmad R Esmaeili; Parvizi, Parviz

    2016-06-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a complex vector-borne disease caused by Leishmania parasites that are transmitted by the bite of several species of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Monthly factor analysis of climatic variables indicated fundamental variables. Principal component-based regionalization was used for recognition of climatic zones using a clustering integrated method that identified five climatic zones based on factor analysis. To investigate spatial distribution of the sand fly species, the kriging method was used as an advanced geostatistical procedure in the ArcGIS modeling system that is beneficial to design measurement plans and to predict the transmission cycle in various regions of Khuzestan province, southwest of Iran. However, more than an 80% probability of P. papatasi was observed in rainy and temperate bio-climatic zones with a high potential of CL transmission. Finding P. sergenti revealed the probability of transmission and distribution patterns of a non-native vector of CL in related zones. These findings could be used as models indicating climatic zones and environmental variables connected to sand fly presence and vector distribution. Furthermore, this information is appropriate for future research efforts into the ecology of Phlebotomine sand flies and for the prevention of CL vector transmission as a public health priority.

  14. Climate variability and change in southern Mali : Learning from farmer perceptions and on-farm trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, B.; Wijk, van M.T.; Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Corbeels, M.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural production in the Sudano–Sahelian zone of west Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and climate change. The present study aimed to understand farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and change and to evaluate adaptation options together with farmers, inc

  15. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  16. A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches.

  17. Effect of climate and land use on niche utilization and distribution of nettle-feeding  butterflies

    OpenAIRE

    Audusseau, Hélène

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are causing a dramatic erosion of biodiversity. To understand this erosion, and predict future transformations of biodiversity, we need to understand better species’ response to these changes at different spatial and temporal scales. Modeling studies have identified correlations between physical parameters of the environment and species’ distribution at large spatial scales. However, this does not accurately characterize the response of a specific...

  18. Climate variability and change in Ethiopia : exploring impacts and adaptation options for cereal production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassie, B.T.

    2014-01-01

    Key words: Climate change, Adaptation, Crop modelling, Uncertainty, Maize (Zea mays), Central Rift Valley. Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia have been facing severe climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall and severe droughts that negativelyaffect their livelihoods.Anticipated

  19. Maximum Entropy Production and Non-Gaussian Climate Variability

    CERN Document Server

    Sura, Philip

    2016-01-01

    Earth's atmosphere is in a state far from thermodynamic equilibrium. For example, the large scale equator-to-pole temperature gradient is maintained by tropical heating, polar cooling, and a midlatitude meridional eddy heat flux predominantly driven by baroclinically unstable weather systems. Based on basic thermodynamic principles, it can be shown that the meridional heat flux, in combination with the meridional temperature gradient, acts to maximize entropy production of the atmosphere. In fact, maximum entropy production (MEP) has been successfully used to explain the observed mean state of the atmosphere and other components of the climate system. However, one important feature of the large scale atmospheric circulation is its often non-Gaussian variability about the mean. This paper presents theoretical and observational evidence that some processes in the midlatitude atmosphere are significantly non-Gaussian to maximize entropy production. First, after introducing the basic theory, it is shown that the ...

  20. Stochastic investigation of wind process for climatic variability identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligiannis, Ilias; Tyrogiannis, Vassilis; Daskalou, Olympia; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The wind process is considered one of the hydrometeorological processes that generates and drives the climate dynamics. We use a dataset comprising hourly wind records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  1. Stochastic investigation of temperature process for climatic variability identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerias, Eleutherios; Kalamioti, Anna; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yannis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The temperature process is considered as the most characteristic hydrometeorological process and has been thoroughly examined in the climate-change framework. We use a dataset comprising hourly temperature and dew point records to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale) for various time periods. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  2. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari Kovats, R.; Edwards, Sally J.; Charron, Dominique; Cowden, John; D'Souza, Rennie M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gauci, Charmaine; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Hajat, Shakoor; Hales, Simon; Hernández Pezzi, Gloria; Kriz, Bohumir; Kutsar, Kuulo; McKeown, Paul; Mellou, Kassiani; Menne, Bettina; O'Brien, Sarah; Pelt, Wilfrid; Schmid, Hans

    2005-03-01

    Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

  3. The relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The long-term integration with the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences has been used in the investigations on the relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability. The results show that the strength of the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation (THC) is negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Based on this kind of relationship, and also the instrument-measured climate record such as air pressure and sea surface temperature, the activity of the thermohaline circulation during the 20th century has been evaluated. The inferred variations of the strength of the THC is that, during two multi-decadal periods of 1867-1903 and 1934-1972, the THC is estimated to have been running stronger, whereas during the two periods of 1904-1933 and 1973-1994, it appears to have been weaker.

  4. Developing climate data records and essential climate variables from landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, John; Dinardo, Thomas P.; Muchoney, Douglas M.

    2011-01-01

    The series of Landsat missions has compiled the longest record of satellite observation of the Earth’s land surface, extending for more than 38 years for most areas of the globe. Landsat data are particularly important as long term climate data records because the scale of observation is sufficient to differentiate between natural and human drivers of land cover change. The USGS has established consistent radiometric calibration across the Landsat TM and ETM+ sensors, and have extended the calibration back to the earlier MSS sensors. The USGS is developing capabilities to create fundamental climate data records (FCDRs), thematic climate data records (TCDRs), and essential climate variables (ECVs) from the Landsat data archive. Two high priority TCDRs were identified: surface reflectance and land surface temperature because they have direct application or are required as input to the generation of ECVs. We will focus development on a few of the terrestrial ECVs that have a high potential for being derived from Landsat data, that include land cover, albedo, fire disturbance, surface water, snow and ice, and leaf area index (LAI). We are collaborating with scientists who have demonstrated successful algorithm development and application of these science products to develop a framework of processing capabilities to support research projects and land management applications, along with an independent strategy for product validation. Our goal is to scale the creation and validation of these products from specific sites in the conterminous U.S. and Alaska, for extension to continental and global scales.

  5. Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

  6. Phylogenetic conservatism of environmental niches in mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Natalie; Freckleton, Rob P; Jetz, Walter

    2011-08-01

    Phylogenetic niche conservatism is the pattern where close relatives occupy similar niches, whereas distant relatives are more dissimilar. We suggest that niche conservatism will vary across clades in relation to their characteristics. Specifically, we investigate how conservatism of environmental niches varies among mammals according to their latitude, range size, body size and specialization. We use the Brownian rate parameter, σ(2), to measure the rate of evolution in key variables related to the ecological niche and define the more conserved group as the one with the slower rate of evolution. We find that tropical, small-ranged and specialized mammals have more conserved thermal niches than temperate, large-ranged or generalized mammals. Partitioning niche conservatism into its spatial and phylogenetic components, we find that spatial effects on niche variables are generally greater than phylogenetic effects. This suggests that recent evolution and dispersal have more influence on species' niches than more distant evolutionary events. These results have implications for our understanding of the role of niche conservatism in species richness patterns and for gauging the potential for species to adapt to global change.

  7. Grazing and climatic variability in Sajama National Park, Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yager, K.

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Sajama National Park, the first protected area in Bolivia, includes five indigenous communities with a primary production base of pastoralism. The semi-arid region of the Central Andes is one of the most extreme areas of human occupation at 4200 meters altitude and affected by high climatic variability. This paper studies the relations between climate variability, resilience, biodiversity of pastures and pastoral production in Sajama National Park. We present a botanical study of palatable pasture herbs between two years, one humid (2006 and the other dry (2007. Thirty vascular plants were recorded. The number of species and the cover of iro (Festuca ortophylla peak in areas of intermediate disturbance; areas that are at a medium distance from camelid corrals. On the other hand, the cover of ephemeral plants between tussocks increases in high disturbance areas. This is interpreted as a result of the tradeoff between the damage of grazing and the benefit of the fertilization produced by the herding animals. The local people clearly perceive strong impacts of climate change, combined with changes in management and human pressures. The social dynamics and production management, combined with climate warming, water reduction, and the increasing variability of surface water regimes create potential risks for the local sustainability of pastoralism.

    El Parque Nacional Sajama, la primer área protegida de Bolivia, incluye a cinco comunidades indígenas con una base de producción principalmente de ganadería. Esta región semi-árida de los Andes Centrales es una de las áreas más extremas de ocupación humana a 4200 metros de altura y es afectada por una alta variabilidad climática. Este trabajo considera las relaciones entre la variabilidad climática, resiliencia, biodiversidad de pastos y la producción ganadera en el Parque Nacional Sajama. Presentamos un estudio botánico de las comunidades de hierbas palatables a lo largo de dos a

  8. Exploring the climate response to the 1815 Tambora eruption with respect to natural climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Stephan J.; Timmreck, Claudia; Jungclaus, Johann H.

    2010-05-01

    The largest historic volcanic eruption with known origin was the explosion of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in April 1815. In the aftermath of this devastating eruption, the following year 1816 came to be known as the "year without a summer", in particular in USA, Canada, and Europe, where the worst famine over a century as well as typhus epidemics accompanied by enhanced emigration from Europe were recorded. The stratospheric aerosol mass load was estimated to be about three times that of the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, leading to strong impact on the Earth's climate system. In a series of ensemble simulations of the last Millennium we applied our Earth system model, based on the ECHAM5/MPIOM model family, to investigate the climate signal of the Tambora eruption with respect to natural and forced variability. This event contributed to one of the strongest cooling periods during the last Millennium in the ensemble of simulations. However, this period is associated with a large ensemble spread in simulated air temperature on a hemispheric and global as well as on a regional scale, with limited to very strong atmospheric response. The unique path of the climate evolution through the Earth's history yielding the extreme summer in 1816 in North America and Europe is compared with the simulations. A special focus of our analysis is Tambora's impact on climate and its relationship with the status of the climate system, e.g. the ENSO state, at the time of the eruption. Additionally, the contribution of the large volcanic eruption with tropical but unknown location about six years prior to the Tambora in 1809 will be discussed.

  9. Climate Variability and Oceanographic Settings Associated with Interannual Variability in the Initiation of Dinophysis acuminata Blooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrick Berger

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In 2012, there were exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in early spring in what appeared to be a mesoscale event affecting Western Iberia and the Bay of Biscay. The objective of this work was to identify common climatic patterns to explain the observed anomalies in two important aquaculture sites, the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain and Arcachon Bay (SW France. Here, we examine climate variability through physical-biological couplings, Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies and time of initiation of the upwelling season and its intensity over several decades. In 2012, the mesoscale features common to the two sites were positive anomalies in SST and unusual wind patterns. These led to an atypical predominance of upwelling in winter in the Galician Rías, and increased haline stratification associated with a southward advection of the Gironde plume in Arcachon Bay. Both scenarios promoted an early phytoplankton growth season and increased stability that enhanced D. acuminata growth. Therefore, a common climate anomaly caused exceptional blooms of D. acuminata in two distant regions through different triggering mechanisms. These results increase our capability to predict intense diarrhetic shellfish poisoning outbreaks in the early spring from observations in the preceding winter.

  10. Climate Variabilities of Sea Level around the Korean Peninsula

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong-Hoon YOUN; Im Sang OH; Young-Hyang PARK; Ki-Hyun KIM

    2004-01-01

    In order to study the climate variabilities of the sea level around the Korean Peninsula, tidal data observed at local stations in Korea were compared against those obtained using TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetric sea level data. In the course of our study, the amount of sea level rise was estimated using the tidal data from 9 stations selected by an anomaly coherency analysis. The results indicated that the sea level has risen by 0.28 cm yr-1 around the Korean Peninsula over the past two decades. The extent of such a rise is about two times higher than that of the global increase (0.1-0.2 cm yr-1). However,because most global warming effects occurred mainly over mid- and high-latitudes, this level of change appears to be realistic. According to the spectral analysis (at a spectral window of k = 2, k is the number of subdivisions), the decadal band of sea level variability is computed at 30% of the energy. Its spectral peak is found at 12.8 years. In the interannual band, the predominant sea level variability is in the 1.4-1.9-year band, with a sharp peak at 1.6 years. A secondary peak, although marginal, has a period of 2.2years. Based on our estimates of sea level height from Topex/Poseidon, the quasi-biennial periodicity of 1.6 years is the representative interannual sea level variability in the seas adjacent to Korea. Trends vary greatly according to the geographical location, from a maximum of 1.0 cm yr-1 (the southern sector of the East Sea) to a minimum of 0.17 cm yr-1 (the northern sector of the East Sea). This is fairly consistent with the qualitative description already given with reference to the global map. As an analogue to the pattern seen in Korea, that of the Yellow Sea reveals practically the same trend as that of the adjacent seas (0.56 cm yr-1). However, in the case of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data, there is no clear evidence of a linkage between the interannual sea level variability around the Korean Peninsula and ENSO.

  11. Climatic variability between SST and river discharge at Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, M. E.; Silva, E. R. L.

    2012-04-01

    Climatic variability, related both to precipitation and river discharge, has been associated to ocean variability. Authors commonly relate Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variation to South America (SA) precipitation. Zonal displacement of Walker cell, with intensified subsidence over northern portion of SA, Subtropical Jet strengthening/weakening over extratropical latitudes of SA are, respectively, dynamical reasons scientifically accepted for increasing and depletion of precipitation at the respective areas. Many studies point out the influence of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in relation to precipitation/river discharge variability over northeast of Brazil. Aliseos variability at tropical Atlantic is also a physic process that contributes to explain precipitation and river flow variability over SA, mainly over the north portion. In this study, we aim to investigate the temporal correlation between SST, mainly from Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and rivers discharge at the Amazon region. Ji-Parana, Madeira and Tapajós river discharge in monthly and annual scale, between 1968 and 2008, were the time series selected to reach the purpose. Time series for river discharge were obtained from Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA, in Portuguese) and, SST data were obtained from CDC/NOAA. Before linear correlation computations between river discharge and SST have been made, seasonal cycle and linear tendency were removed from all original time series. Areas better correlated to river discharge at Amazon region show oceanic patterns apparently associated to PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and ENSO (El Niño-South Oscillation) variability, with absolute values greater than 0.3 and reaching 0.5 or 0.6. The spatial pattern observed at Pacific basin is similar to that showed by the first mode of PCA (Principal Component Analysis), such seen in many studies (the "horse shoe" pattern). In general, negative correlation values appear far more to the west of Pacific basin

  12. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature.

  13. Long-term ERP time series as indicators for global climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, E.; Grötzsch, A.; Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nevir, P.; Thomas, M.

    2009-04-01

    This study assesses whether variations in observed Earth orientation parameters (EOPs, IERS) such as length-of day (LOD EOP C04) and polar motion (PM EOP C04) can be applied as climate indicators. Data analyses suggest that observed EOPs are differently affected by parameters associated with the atmosphere and ocean. On interannual time scales the varying ocean-atmosphere effects on EOPs are in particular pronounced during episodes of the coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observed ENSO anomalies of spatial patterns of parameters affected by atmosphere and ocean (climate indices and sea surface temperatures) are related to LOD and PM variability and associated with possible physical background processes. Present time analyses (1962 - 2000) indicate that the main source of the varying ENSO signal on observed LOD can be associated with anomalies of the relative angular momentum (AAM) related to variations in location and strength of jet streams of the upper troposphere. While on interannual time scales observed LOD and AAM are highly correlated (r=0.75), results suggest that strong El Niño events affect the observed LOD - AAM relation differently strong (explained variance 71%- 98%). Accordingly, the relation between AAM and ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) in the NIÑO 3.4 region differs (explained variances 15%-73%). Corresponding analysis is conducted on modelled EOPs (ERA40 reanalysis, ECHAM5-OM1) to obtain Earth rotation parameters undisturbed by core-mantle activities, and to study rotational variations under climate variability and change. A total of 91 strong El Niño events are analysed in coupled ocean-atmosphere ECHAM5-OM1 scenarios concerning the 20th century (20C), climate warming (A1B) and pre-industrial climate variability. Analyses on a total of 61 strong El Niño events covering a time period of 505 simulation years under pre-industrial climate conditions indicate a range of El Niño events with a strong or

  14. Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo; Fyfe, John C.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Dai, Xingang

    2015-06-01

    Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown no discernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strong warming. The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific, intensifying trade winds, changes in El Niño activity, increasing volcanic activity and decreasing solar irradiance. Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the difference between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularly over the so-called `hiatus' period since about 2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns different from those associated with GHG-induced warming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.

  15. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    characterized in each region by high/low quality wines. Finally, we also investigated how climate variability is related to DOC wine quality for different regions using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Results reveal a strong dependence of wine quality for all regions on maximum temperature and precipitation during spring and summer (the growing season) as expected. However the role of temperature on wine quality seems to be distinct among the diverse regions probably due to their different climate zoning. Moreover, it is shown that the differences associated with high/low quality wine are in agreement with different synoptic fields patterns. Our results suggest that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage/high quality year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Santo F.E., de Lima M.I.P., Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Trends in seasonal surface air temperature in mainland Portugal, since 1941, International Journal Climatolology, 34: 1814-1837, doi: 10.1002/joc.3803 (2014) de Lima M.I.P., Santo F.E., Ramos A.M. , Trigo, R.M., Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941-2007, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-1079-6 (2014) Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

  16. Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the eff

  17. Analysis of climate variability in mainland Portugal using a combined Climate Extremes Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espírito Santo, Fátima; de Lima, Isabel P.

    2014-05-01

    summer and winter there is an increase (not statistically significant) towards more widespread events in both the dry and wet extremes. Overall, this study shows the usefulness of the CEI in regional applications, by allowing the increased understanding of the spatial and temporal development of extreme events while combining the air temperature and precipitation extremes. These climate variables are usually inspected separately whereas their combined analysis provides additional important information.

  18. Livelihood adaptations to climate variability: insights from farming households in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Antwi-Agyei, P; Stringer, LC; Dougill, AJ

    2014-01-01

    Climate variability poses a significant threat to many sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa's economy. Agriculture is one of the most climate sensitive sectors because of its dependence on rain-fed cultivation. This paper identifies the main adaptation strategies used by farming households in the Sudan savannah and forest-savannah transitional agro-ecological zones of Ghana, in order to reduce the adverse impacts of climate variability on their livelihood activities. It combines questionnaire survey...

  19. Climate variability effects on urban recharge beneath low impact development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newcomer, M. E.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater resources in urban and coastal environments are highly vulnerable to human pressures and climate variability and change, and many communities face water shortages and need to find alternative water supplies. Therefore, understanding how low impact development (LID) site planning and integrated/best management practices (BMPs) affect recharge rates and volumes is important because of the increasing use of LID and BMP to reduce stormwater runoff and improve surface-water quality. Often considered a secondary management benefit, many BMPs may also enhance recharge to local aquifers; however these hypothesized benefits have not been thoroughly tested or quantified. In this study, we quantify stormwater capture and recharge enhancement beneath a BMP infiltration trench of the LID research network at San Francisco State University, San Francisco, California. Stormwater capture and retention was analyzed using the SCS TR-55 curve number method and in-situ infiltration rates to assess LID storage. Recharge was quantified using vadose zone monitoring equipment, a detailed water budget analysis, and a Hydrus-2D model. Additionally, the effects of historical and predicted future precipitation on recharge rates were examined using precipitation from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) A1F1 climate scenario. Observed recharge rates beneath the infiltration trench range from 1,600 to 3,700 mm/year and are an order of magnitude greater than recharge beneath an irrigated grass lawn and a natural setting. The Hydrus-2D model results indicate increased recharge under the GFDL A1F1 scenario compared with historical and GFDL modeled 20th century rates because of the higher frequency of large precipitation events that induce runoff into the infiltration trench. However, under a simulated A1F1 El Niño year, recharge calculated by a water budget does not increase compared with current El Niño recharge rates. In comparison, simulated recharge rates were

  20. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm managemen

  1. Australia: Climate-Ecosystem Variability and Impacts on Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, K. C.; Diabate, M.; Anyamba, A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability in Australia is largely driven by an atmospheric phenomenon called the Southern Oscillation (SO), which involves a see-saw like behavior between low and high pressure systems within the equatorial Pacific regions. The interaction of SO with abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) - El Niño - or abnormally low SSTs - La Niña ("anti-El Niño") - creates extreme drought or extreme flooding respectively throughout the Australian continent. These El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have significant impacts on Australia's landscape, ecosystems, agriculture production, and, as this report show, human health. The teleconnection between ENSO and human health is straight forward but not obvious. During La Niña years, when ENSO events are characterized by increased rainfall and consequential flooding, Australia's tropical, warm climate in addition to an associated increase in vegetation growth from the increased rainfall creates an ideal habitat for mosquito population increase. Certain species of Australian mosquitoes [Culux annulirostris] are carriers of Murray Valley Encephalitis (MVE) virus which is a rare but potentially fatal infection that attacks neurological and muscular functioning. It is hypothesized that a widespread increase in vegetation indicates an expansion of ideal mosquito production habitats and will translate to an increased risk of MVE contraction. The objective of this research is to show if a correlation exists between the ENSO-driven climate- and consequential ecosystem- changes and MVE outbreaks throughout Australia. To do so, this study makes use of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor operating on NASA's Terra satellite to obtain monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. It is assumed in this research that an anomalous increase in NDVI values - indicative of vegetation growth - occurs as a result of increased rainfall. Due to Australia's tropical positioning and

  2. Incorporating climate change trends to near future variability of crop yields in Iberia Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa-Morocho, Mirian; Baethgen, Walter E.; Fernandes, Kátia; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we analyze the effects of near future climate variability on cropping systems in Iberian Peninsula (IP). For this purpose, we generated climate sequences that simulate realistic variability on annual to decadal time scales. The sequences incorporate nonlinear climate change trends, using statistical methods and and an ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Then, the climate sequences are temporal downscaled into daily weather data and used as inputs to crop models. As case study, we evaluate the impacts of plausible future climate scenarios on rain-fed wheat yield two agricultural locations in IP. We adapted the method by Greene et al., (2012 and 2015) for informing climate projections for the coming decades with a combination of seasonal to interannual and anthropogenically forced climate change information for accounting the Near-term Climate Change. Long-term data containing solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall are needed to apply this method. The climate variability observed was decomposed into long-range trend, decadal and interannual variability to understand the relative importance of each time scale. The interannual variability was modeled based on the observational records. The results of this study may have important implications on public and private sectors to analyze the probabilistic projections of impacts and agronomic adaptations of near future climate variability in Iberian Peninsula. This study has been funded by MACSUR project from FACCE-JPI. References Greene, A.M., Goddard, L., Gonzalez, P.L., Ines, A.V. and Chryssanthacopoulos, J., 2015.A climate generator for agricultural planning in southeastern South America.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 203: 217-228. Greene, A.M., Hellmuth, M. and Lumsden, T., 2012. Stochastic decadal climate simulations for the Berg and Breede water management areas, western Cape province, South Africa. Water Resources

  3. Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frieda Beauregard

    Full Text Available Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839 covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study

  4. Future climate variability impacts on potential erosion and soil organic carbon in European croplands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. van der Velde

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the impact of future climate variability on the potential vulnerability of soils to erosion and the consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC in European croplands. Soil erosion is an important carbon flux not characterized in Earth System Models. We use a~European implementation of EPIC, driven by reference climate data (CNTRL, and climate data with reduced variability (REDVAR. Whether erosion regimes will change across European cropland depends on the spatial conjunction of expected changes in climate variability and physiographic conditions conducive to erosion. We isolated the effect of erosion by performing simulations with and without erosion. Median CNTRL and REDVAR erosion rates equalled 14.4 and 9.1 ton ha−1, and 19.1 and 9.7, for 1981–2010 and 2071–2100, respectively. The total amount of carbon lost from European cropland due to erosion was estimated at 769 Tg C for 1981–2010 (from a total storage of 6197 Tg C without erosion under CNTRL climate. Climate trend impacts reduce the European cropland SOC stock by 578 Tg C without – and by 683 Tg C with erosion, from 1981 to 2100. Climate variability compounds these impacts and decreases the stock by an estimated 170 Tg without erosion and by 314 Tg C with erosion, by the end of the century. Future climate variability and erosion will thus compound impacts on SOC stocks arising from gradual climate change alone.

  5. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef;

    2008-01-01

    Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is mor...

  6. Modelling climate control on cropland and grassland development using phenologically tuned variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horion, Stéphanie Marie Anne F; Tychon, Bernard; Cornet, Yves

    2010-01-01

    Many studies already investigated the impact of climate change and climate variability on vegetation at global and continental scales. Using time series of remote sensing and climate data, Nemani et al. (2003) analyzed trends in Net Primary Production in relation with changes in climate and showed...... that, between 1982 and 1999, primary productivity increased by 6% globally in response to climate change. This study also stressed the need to take into account the spatial variability of climatic constraints to plant growth when analyzing the climate change impact on vegetation. Others authors......D research. Our objective is to identify the meteorological factors which limit the development of croplands and grasslands in relation with their geographical localization. For that purpose, we acquired 10-daily time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI, derived from SPOT...

  7. Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

    2008-06-15

    The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

  8. North atlantic multidecadal climate variability: An investigation of dominant time scales and processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankcombe, L.M.; von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2010-01-01

    The issue of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic has been an important topic of late. It is clear that there are multidecadal variations in several climate variables in the North Atlantic, such as sea surface temperature and sea level height. The details of this variability, in particular

  9. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the

  10. Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Theodore S.

    There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

  11. Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

    2010-05-01

    The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

  12. Spatial variability of the trends in climatic variables across China during 1961-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen; Hu, Qingfang; Lv, Huafang

    2015-05-01

    Distribution of meteorological stations is not uniform in many regions of the world, especially in developing countries like China. To eliminate the effect of uneven stations, this study produced a data set of areal average precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed from 736 meteorological station observations during 1961-2010 using an inverse-distance weighted technique. Based on the data set, this study detected the trends in climatic variables. Precipitation has a slight but no significant ( p = 0.78) trend for the whole of China and has a significant increase trend in northwest China. Surface air temperature has a significant ( p < 0.001) accelerating warming trend of 0.032 °C/a for the whole of China, and spatially larger in northern China than that in southern China. Solar radiation has a significant ( p < 0.001) dimming trend of -0.14 W/(m2 · a) for the whole of China, and the largest dimming trend appears in eastern China, the possible cause for which is a high-aerosol concentration. Surface wind speed has a significant ( p < 0.001) stilling trend of -0.012 m/(s·a) for the whole of China, the causes for which were speculated the changes in atmospheric circulation and surface roughness, as well as increases in aerosol concentration and the decrease in the south-north temperature gradient in China. In addition, three large-scale instrument replacements increase uncertainties of the trend analysis.

  13. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S

    2005-12-15

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  14. Estimating the climate variability of the last millennium on the East Antarctic plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Münch, Thomas; Laepple, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Quantitative knowledge about the climate variability on the Antarctic continent is crucial to attribute and detect the anthropogenic influence, and to understand the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet. Isotope records from firn and ice cores provide information about Holocene climate variability but strong non-climate effects hamper their quantitative interpretation, especially in low-accumulation regions. So far, the magnitude and time-scale dependency of both the climate signal and the noise is largely unknown. Here, we combine 16 annually-resolved firn cores spanning the last 200 years, three records covering the last millennium as well as surface snow data from the Amundsenisen region on the East Antarctic plateau. By means of a spectral correction technique we can separate the climate signal from noise and derive, for the first time, a time-scale dependent estimate of East-Antarctic temperature variability. Our preliminary results indicate that, unlike the raw isotope data, the obtained temperature variability for our study region shows a scaling behavior with more variability on longer time scales, similar to estimates from marine SST records. The noise levels we find are in accordance with the independent surface snow sampling results from Kohnen station. An analysis of the variability in current climate models on the other hand suggests less variability on centennial time scales. The discrepancy between the model and data-based results indicates either deficiencies in the model simulations, or further unknown processes affecting the ice-core records. Our estimate of East-Antarctic climate variability thus highlights the importance of an improved understanding of Holocene climate and ice-core derived variability.

  15. Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Chatzikosta, Isaia; Pastiadis, Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. METHODS: Data from 29 European...... countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. RESULTS......: The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high...

  16. Impacts of Sea Surface Salinity Bias Correction on North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Climate Variability in the Kiel Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2016-04-01

    We investigated impacts of correcting North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) biases on the ocean circulation of the North Atlantic and on North Atlantic sector mean climate and climate variability in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Bias reduction was achieved by applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region.

  17. Role of climate variability in the heatstroke death rates of Kanto region in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akihiko, Takaya; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K

    2014-07-10

    The death toll by heatstroke in Japan, especially in Kanto region, has sharply increased since 1994 together with large interannual variability. The surface air temperature and humidity observed during boreal summers of 1980-2010 were examined to understand the role of climate in the death toll. The extremely hot days, when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C, are more strongly associated with the death toll than the conventional Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index. The extremely hot days tend to be associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting a potential link with tropical climate variability to the heatstroke related deaths. Also, the influence of these climate modes on the death toll has strengthened since 1994 probably related to global warming. It is possible to develop early warning systems based on seasonal climate predictions since recent climate models show excellent predictability skills for those climate modes.

  18. Ecological niche of plant pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Fodor

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important for the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread.

  19. Assessing the relative effects of emissions, climate means, and variability on large water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whateley, Sarah; Brown, Casey

    2016-11-01

    Some of the greatest societal risks of climate change rise from the potential impacts to water supply. Yet prescribing adaptation policies in the near term is made difficult by the uncertainty in climate projections at relevant spatial scales and the conflating effects of uncertainties in emissions, model error, and internal variability. In this work, a new framework is implemented to explore the vulnerability of reservoir systems in the northeastern U.S. to climate change and attribute vulnerabilities to changes in mean climate, natural variability, or emission scenarios. Analysis of variance is used to explore the contributions of uncertainties to system performance. Diagnosing the relative risks to water supply will help water resource engineers better adapt to uncertain future conditions. The results indicate that uncertainty in water supply system performance can be attributed mostly to uncertainty in internal variability over policy-relevant planning horizons, and thus, adaptation efforts should focus on managing variability.

  20. Organizational climate and variable of interpersonal skills in construct of a transportation company.

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Rodrigo Sinnott; Faculdade Anhanguera do Rio Grande; Ramos, Liege da Silva; Faculdade Anhanguera do Rio Grande

    2015-01-01

    Studies indicate the importance of a satisfactory Organizational Climate in organizations, in favor of the company and employees. This study aimed to analyze the influence on the variable of Interpersonal Skills in building the Organizational Climate for a transport company. included a field survey which reached 77 employees of the company, these were submitted to answer two instruments with scales 1-5, Scale for Measuring Organizational Climate (ECO) and Universal Competency Report. The resu...

  1. Variability and Variation Characteristics of Climate in Northern Winter Wheat Zone during 1961-2004

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study the variability and variation characteristics of climate in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004.[Method] Based on the meteorological data (temperature,precipitation and sunshine) of 55 meteorological stations in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 and the yield data of winter wheat,by using the linear regression,correlated coefficient and climatic tendency rate,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural climatic resources (sunsh...

  2. Sliding window correlation analysis for dengue-climate variable relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiruchelvam, Loshini; Asirvadam, Vijanth S.; Dass, Sarat C.; Daud, Hanita; Gill, Balvinder S.

    2016-11-01

    This study discussed building of sliding windows to analyze the relationship between dengue incidences and weather variables of mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, across the timeline. A window sized of 20 was selected and applied to find correlation between dengue incidences and each of the weather variable. A few time lag of zero, two, four, six, and eight is compared and the time lag with best correlation is selected for each weather variable. Study did not found a good insight for analysis using mean temperature and relative humidity. For both these variables, it was suggested dengue incidences is better measured using fluctuation of maximum and minimum values. Analysis using rainfall variable was found to vary across the timeline in magnitude and direction of the correlation. Time lag of eight was found to be the most significant explaining the relationship between dengue incidences and rainfall variable.

  3. Land use and climate variability amplify carbon, nutrient, and contaminant pulses: a review with management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture and urbanization is increasing globally at the same time that climate extremes have increased in frequency and intensity. We review over 160 studies and show how the interaction between land use and climate variability alters the magnit...

  4. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  5. Sub-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability in observations and the Kiel Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reintges, Annika; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2016-07-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector. The corresponding index varies on a wide range of timescales, from days and months to decades and beyond. Sub-decadal NAO variability has been well documented, but the underlying mechanism is still under discussion. Other indices of North Atlantic sector climate variability such as indices of sea surface and surface air temperature or Arctic sea ice extent also exhibit pronounced sub-decadal variability. Here, we use sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations, and the Kiel Climate Model to investigate the dynamics of the sub-decadal NAO variability. The sub-decadal NAO variability is suggested to originate from dynamical large-scale air-sea interactions. The adjustment of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to previous surface heat flux variability provides the memory of the coupled mode. The results stress the role of coupled feedbacks in generating sub-decadal North Atlantic sector climate variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability in that region.

  6. Climate variability in the Carpathian Mountains Region over 1961-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheval, Sorin; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru

    2014-07-01

    The Carpathian Mountains Region (CMR) lies over parts of the territories of seven Central and Southeastern European countries, and the mountain chain induces major changes in the temperate climate specific to the latitudes between 43° and 49°N. Different administrations govern the long-term meteorological networks; the infrastructure, collection protocols, and storage capacities are specific to each country, so that a comprehensive study on the climate of the area has met considerable difficulties along time. Climate of the Carpathian Region (CARPATCLIM) is a regional initiative developed between 2010 and 2013 aiming to enhance the climatic information in the area by providing comprehensive, temporally and spatially homogenous data sets of the main meteorological variables. Based on daily data aggregated to a monthly scale at 10-km resolution, this study exploits and promotes the results of the CARPATCLIM project, documenting the variability of the main climatic variables over 1961-2010. For each month, the significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified, mapped and placed in the context of previous studies and climate change perspectives. The study has revealed several patterns in the climatic variability, i.e., positive or negative trends prevailing over the entire area, very distinct delineation between various trends induced by the Carpathian Mountain chain, and pledges for further scientific approaches, i.e., causes of the variability and applications in other domains.

  7. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located...

  8. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Y. Wang; Zhu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe b...

  9. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Y. Wang; Zhu, Y.

    2015-01-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinghe basin, located in ...

  10. Climate Variability and the Outbreaks of Cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A Time Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Reyburn, Rita; Kim, Deok Ryun; Emch, Michael; Khatib, Ahmed; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Ali, Mohammad

    2011-01-01

    Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera...

  11. Climate Variability, Child Labour and Schooling: Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margin

    OpenAIRE

    Colmer, Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    How does future income uncertainty affect child labour and human capital accumulation? Using a unique panel dataset, we examine the effect of changes in climate variability on the allocation of time among child labour activities (the intensive margin) as well as participation in education and labour activities (the extensive margin). We find robust evidence that increased climate variability increases the number of hours spent on farming activities while reducing the number of hours spent on ...

  12. The probabilistic niche model reveals substantial variation in the niche structure of empirical food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Richard J; Purves, Drew W

    2011-09-01

    The structure of food webs, complex networks of interspecies feeding interactions, plays a crucial role in ecosystem resilience and function, and understanding food web structure remains a central problem in ecology. Previous studies have shown that key features of empirical food webs can be reproduced by low-dimensional "niche" models. Here we examine the form and variability of food web niche structure by fitting a probabilistic niche model to 37 empirical food webs, a much larger number of food webs than used in previous studies. The model relaxes previous assumptions about parameter distributions and hierarchy and returns parameter estimates for each species in each web. The model significantly outperforms previous niche model variants and also performs well for several webs where a body-size-based niche model performs poorly, implying that traits other than body size are important in structuring these webs' niche space. Parameter estimates frequently violate previous models' assumptions: in 19 of 37 webs, parameter values are not significantly hierarchical, 32 of 37 webs have nonuniform niche value distributions, and 15 of 37 webs lack a correlation between niche width and niche position. Extending the model to a two-dimensional niche space yields networks with a mixture of one- and two-dimensional niches and provides a significantly better fit for webs with a large number of species and links. These results confirm that food webs are strongly niche-structured but reveal substantial variation in the form of the niche structuring, a result with fundamental implications for ecosystem resilience and function.

  13. Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wassie Berhanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change in the region is found to be very consistent with the actually recorded trends of increased temperature and the evident secular declines in precipitation. Not only long-term declines, trends in the region’s rainfall also appear to have taken a shift towards the direction of more unpredictability. Pastoralist adaptation response strategies broadly involve adjustments in pastoral practices and shifts to non-pastoral livelihoods. Results of the estimated models confirm that pastoral mobility is still quite essential in the present context of climate-induced household vulnerabilities. Increased mobility and diversification of pastoral herd portfolios in favor of a drought-tolerant species (camel are found to be positively associated with pastoral household net income. A policy stance that ignores the detrimental impacts of the currently pervasive private rangeland enclosures or intends to hasten pastoralist sedentarization in the area is simply untenable in the present context of climate-induced risks and pastoral livelihood vulnerability.

  14. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  15. Long-term successional forest dynamics: species and community responses to climatic variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Todd Jr, Donald E [ORNL; Hanson, Paul J [ORNL; Mulholland, Patrick J [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Question: Are tree dynamics sensitive to climatic variability, and do tree species differ in their responses to climatic variability? Hence, is vulnerability of forest communities to climatic variability depending on stand composition? Location: Mixed young forest at Walker Branch Watershed near Oak Ridge, East-Tennessee, USA. Methods: Using a long-term data set (1967-2006), we analyzed temporal forest dynamics at the tree and species level, and we analyzed community dynamics for forest stands that different in their initial species composition (i.e., Chestnut Oak, Oak-Hickory, Pine, and Yellow poplar stands). Using summer drought and growing season temperature as defined climate drivers, we evaluated relationships between forest dynamics and climate across levels of organization. Results: Over the 4-decade studied period, forest communities underwent successional change and substantially increased their biomass. Variation in summer drought and growing season temperature contributed to temporal biomass dynamics for some tree species, but not for others. Stand-level responses to climatic variability were shown to be related to responses of specific component species; however, not for Pine stands. Pinus echinata, the dominant species in stands initially identified as Pine stands, decreased over time due to periodical outbreaks of the pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis). The outbreaks on Walker Branch could not be directly related to climatic conditions. Conclusions: Our results imply that vulnerability of developing forests to predicted climate conditions is stand-type dependent, and hence, is a function of species composition. Autogenic successional processes (or insect outbreaks) were found to prevail over climatic variability in determining long-term forest dynamics for stands dominated by sensitive species, emphasizing the importance of studying interactions between forest succession and climate change.

  16. Utilizing Satellite Precipitation Products to Understand the Link Between Climate Variability and Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, V.; Mousam, A.; Delamater, P. L.; Cash, B. A.; Quispe, A.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria is a public health threat to people globally leading to 198 million cases and 584,000 deaths annually. Outbreaks of vector borne diseases such as malaria can be significantly impacted by climate variables such as precipitation. For example, an increase in rainfall has the potential to create pools of water that can serve as breeding locations for mosquitos. Peru is a country that is currently controlling malaria, but has not been able to completely eliminate the disease. Despite the various initiatives in order to control malaria - including regional efforts to improve surveillance, early detection, prompt treatment, and vector management - malaria cases in Peru have risen between 2011 and 2014. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variability plays a fundamental role in malaria occurrence over a 12-year period (2003-2014) in Peru. When analyzing climate variability, it is important to obtain high-quality, high-resolution data for a time series long enough to draw conclusion about how climate variables have been and are changing. Remote sensing is a powerful tool for measuring and monitoring climate variables continuously in time and space. A widely used satellite-based precipitation product, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), available globally since 1998, was used to obtain 3-hourly data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°. The precipitation data was linked to weekly (2003-2014) malaria cases collected by health centers and available at a district level all over Peru to investigate the relationship between precipitation and the seasonal and annual variations in malaria incidence. Further studies will incorporate additional climate variables such as temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and surface pressure from remote sensing data products and climate models. Ultimately, this research will help us to understand if climate variability impacts malaria incidence

  17. The Impact of Climate and Its Variability on Crop Yield and Irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Troy, T.

    2014-12-01

    As the global population grows and the climate changes, having a secure food supply is increasingly important especially under water stressed-conditions. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources. It is therefore important to understand how crop yields due to irrigation are affected by climate variability and how irrigation may buffer against climate, allowing for more resilient agricultural systems. Efforts to solve these barely exposed questions can benefit from comprehending the influence of climate variability on crop yield and irrigation water use in the past. To do this, we use historical climate data,irrigation water use data and rainfed and irrigated crop yields over the US to analyze the relationship among climate, irrigation and delta crop yields, gained by subtracting rainfed yield from irrigated yield since 1970. We find that the increase in delta crop yield due to irrigation is larger for certain climate conditions, such that there are optimal climate conditions where irrigation provides a benefit and other conditions where irrigation proves to have marginal benefits when temperature increased to certain degrees. We find that crop water requirements are linked to potential evapotranspiration, yet actual irrigation water use is largely decoupled from the climate conditions but related with other causes. This has important implications for agricultural and water resource system planning, as it implies there are optimal climate zones where irrigation is productive and that changes in water use, both temporally and spatially, could lead to increased water availability without negative impacts on crop yields. Furthermore, based on the exposed relationship between crop yield gained by irrigation and climate variability, those models predicting the global harvest will be redress to estimate crop production in the future more accurately.

  18. Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-02-27

    This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

  19. Impact of Climate Change on Drylands. Climate variability, livelihood strategies and policy options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verhagen, A. [Plant Research International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dietz, A.J. [Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies AGIDS, University of Amsterdam UvA, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-09-01

    The findings of the Impact of Climate Change on Drylands (ICCD) project were discussed during a workshop held on 26 and 27 April 2001. The aims of the workshop were to disseminate the findings of the ICCD project, create awareness of the possible effects of climate change and contribute to the dialogue on climate change research in West Africa. Both the workshop and the project were financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP), Centre Technique de Cooperation de Agricole et Rurale (CTA), Wageningen University (INREF), and Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies (AGIDS)

  20. Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901-2007

    CERN Document Server

    Aslam, O P M

    2014-01-01

    We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun-climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.

  1. Cropping frequency and area response to climate variability can exceed yield response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Vanwey, Leah K.; Spera, Stephanie A.; Mustard, John F.

    2016-06-01

    The sensitivity of agricultural output to climate change has often been estimated by modelling crop yields under climate change scenarios or with statistical analysis of the impacts of year-to-year climatic variability on crop yields. However, the area of cropland and the number of crops harvested per growing season (cropping frequency) both also affect agricultural output and both also show sensitivity to climate variability and change. We model the change in agricultural output associated with the response of crop yield, crop frequency and crop area to year-to-year climate variability in Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil, a key agricultural region. Roughly 70% of the change in agricultural output caused by climate was determined by changes in frequency and/or changes in area. Hot and wet conditions were associated with the largest losses and cool and dry conditions with the largest gains. All frequency and area effects had the same sign as total effects, but this was not always the case for yield effects. A focus on yields alone may therefore bias assessments of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts to agriculture should seek to limit production losses not only from crop yield, but also from changes in cropland area and cropping frequency.

  2. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability.

  3. Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Duchesne

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter, the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions.

  4. The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero Angel, M.; Carvajal Escobar, Y.; Garcia Vargas, M.

    2007-05-01

    Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.

  5. Long-range variability and predictability of the Ozark Highlands climate elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae-Won

    Interannual variations and intraannual variation of regional-scale and global-scale climate variables are characterized by principal component analysis (PCA). Climate consistency is detected among the entire United States, the North Central states, and the Ozark Highlands (OZHI). The regional-scale modes of the OZHI climate are classified as the predictands of the statistical climate model. Characteristic patterns and time coefficients are examined in global-scale climate variables as the predictor of the models. Relationships between regional-scale and global-scale climate variables are identified by the month lead cross- correlation analysis. The OZHI temperatures in January and July are highly correlated to lead time global-scale climate variables in the tropical and subtropical Pacific and Atlantic and those of lead time in the eastern subtropical and midlatitude Pacific, respectively. The OZHI precipitation levels in January and May are highly correlated to lead time global-scale climate variables in the western tropical Pacific and in the western tropical Indian, and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), respectively. From multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal components regression (PCR) analysis, the predictability of OZHI regional temperature and precipitation are discussed with model diagnostics and measurements of forecasting performance. This study suggests that PCR can clearly eliminate the multicollinearity among predictors. For the purpose of building the statistical climate model, the sensitivities of the main predictors (i.e., temperature and precipitation) are investigated, and relatively long-memory and short-memory predictors are uncovered. The sea surface temperatures have a relatively long-memory effect.

  6. Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho

    2016-06-01

    Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.

  7. Spatial variability and its scale dependency of observed and modeled soil moisture under different climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Li

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Past studies on soil moisture spatial variability have been mainly conducted in catchment scales where soil moisture is often sampled over a short time period. Because of limited climate and weather conditions, the observed soil moisture often exhibited smaller dynamic ranges which prevented the complete revelation of soil moisture spatial variability as a function of mean soil moisture. In this study, spatial statistics (mean, spatial variability and skewness of in situ soil moisture measurements (from a continuously monitored network across the US, modeled and satellite retrieved soil moisture obtained in a warm season (198 days were examined at large extent scales (>100 km over three different climate regions. The investigation on in situ measurements revealed that their spatial moments strongly depend on climates, with distinct mean, spatial variability and skewness observed in each climate zone. In addition, an upward convex shape, which was revealed in several smaller scale studies, was observed for the relationship between spatial variability of in situ soil moisture and its spatial mean across dry, intermediate, and wet climates. These climate specific features were vaguely or partially observable in modeled and satellite retrieved soil moisture estimates, which is attributed to the fact that these two data sets do not have climate specific and seasonal sensitive mean soil moisture values, in addition to lack of dynamic ranges. From the point measurements to satellite retrievals, soil moisture spatial variability decreased in each climate region. The three data sources all followed the power law in the scale dependency of spatial variability, with coarser resolution data showing stronger scale dependency than finer ones. The main findings from this study are: (1 the statistical distribution of soil moisture depends on spatial mean soil moisture values and thus need to be derived locally within any given area; (2 the boundedness of soil

  8. Review article "On the origins of decadal climate variability: a network perspective"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Tsonis

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This review is a synthesis of work spanning the last 25 yr. It is largely based on the use of climate networks to identify climate subsystems/major modes and to subsequently study how their collective behavior explains decadal variability. The central point is that a network of coupled nonlinear subsystems may at times begin to synchronize. If during synchronization the coupling between the subsystems increases, the synchronous state may, at some coupling strength threshold, be destroyed shifting climate to a new regime. This climate shift manifests itself as a change in global temperature trend. This mechanism, which is consistent with the theory of synchronized chaos, appears to be a very robust mechanism of the climate system. It is found in the instrumental records, in forced and unforced climate simulations, as well as in proxy records spanning several centuries.

  9. Climate cycles and dissolved oxygen variability off eastern Luzon, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, M.; San Diego-McGlone, M.; Jacinto, G.; Siringan, F.; Villanoy, C.; Gordon, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    We assess the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the variability of dissolved oxygen off eastern Luzon, Philippines. In this area, bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) into the Kuroshio and Mindanao Currents occurs. Hydrographic parameters and sediment cores obtained during the oceanographic cruises in 2011 and 2012, and data from the World Ocean Atlas 2009 (WOA09) were used in the study. Variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration was observed from surface to the thermocline between the neutral (2011) and La Niña (2012) phase. Based on optimum multiparameter analysis, there was a change in the fraction of water masses in the area. Under neutral conditions, waters off eastern Luzon consist mainly of water (NPSW) from the Kuroshio recirculation gyre that contain higher DO. In contrast, during La Niña conditions the North Equatorial Current becomes stronger bringing in water (NPTW) with lower DO. Thus, variability in DO off eastern Luzon is influenced by the change in the source of the water mass arising from the shift in bifurcation latitude that is linked to ENSO. Longer-term variability in DO was examined using a 2.15m sediment core taken in the shelf off eastern Luzon. The sediment record was used to reconstruct the depositional redox environment in the last 1000 years. The elements V, Ni, Cr, Mn and Fe were normalized to Ti and used as chemical proxies to track DO variability. Results show that DO fluctuations have occurred in the past, and these changes are in agreement with DO variability driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  10. Analysis of inter-variable relations in regional climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcke, Renate; Chandler, Richard

    2015-04-01

    The topic of physical consistency and inter-variable relations of climate model output, in particular when applying statistical downscaling and bias correction to single variables, is widely discussed in the climate impact modelling and climate impact communities. Many situations require the consideration of several climate variables simultaneously, as a result of which it is also necessary to check that the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by the RCMs. Given that it is common practice to bias-adjust RCM outputs so as to improve their properties with respect to the distribution of variables taken individually, it is also of interest to determine whether inter-variable relationships are affected by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping, that are applied separately to each variable. A pragmatic reason to look at this is, if bias-adjusted outputs are to be used in impacts studies, it is necessary to check that the inter-variable relationships are realistic. A more fundamental reason is, that RCMs are physically based and, before bias correction, their outputs should therefore ideally be physically consistent. However, an empirical bias adjustment procedure has the potential to break the physical consistency, thereby removing one of the strongest justifications for using RCMs in the first place. Based on these considerations, the study aims to answer two questions. The first is to assess the inter-variable relationships in a suite of RCM outputs in more detail than has previously been attempted, by examining conditional probability densities instead of correlations. The second is to quantify the extent to which these conditional densities are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. The results can be used both to evaluate the ability of current RCMs (bias-adjusted or not) to provide useful information for climate change impact assessments; and also to determine the viability of quantile mapping as a

  11. Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schneider

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP and export production (EP of particulate organic carbon (POC. Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation. Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006 with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

  12. Hydro-climatic variability and forest fires in Mexicos northern temperate forests

    OpenAIRE

    José Návar; Liliana Lizárraga-Mendiola

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is likely modifying the hydrological cycle of forested watersheds. This report set as objectives to: a) assess the hydrological variables interception loss, I, potential and actual evapotranspiration, E, Et, runoff, Q, and soil moisture content, θ; b) evaluate whether these variables are presenting consistent trends or oscillations that can be associated to global warming or climate variability; and c) relate θ to the number of wildfires and the burned area in Durango, Mexico. ...

  13. Variability of polar snow densification during climatic transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bréant, Camille; Martinerie, Patricia; Landais, Amaëlle; Arnaud, Laurent

    2015-04-01

    The transformation of snow into ice is a complex natural phenomenon and difficult to model. Depending on temperature and precipitation conditions, it may take several decades to millennia. This process is the cause of the age difference between the ice and the gases it contains. The prediction of gas trapping depth is a major challenge of paleoclimatology. The wide discrepancies observed in central Antarctica between densification model outputs and isotopic measurements of inert gases trapped in ice generate important uncertainty in past climate reconstructions. The LGGE thermo-mechanical model of firn densification includes the formulation of mechanical processes, thermal properties, and gas trapping criteria. The model performances have been tested against measurements of present-day density and temperature profiles, and trace gas data in ice cores (15N, 40Ar, CH4). Several ice cores are simulated with consistent model parameters. The model has been improved based on sensitivity tests and new experimental constraints (e.g. thermal properties such as activation energies, mechanical parameters: critical density, coordination number etc.). We will present the impact of model improvements on the variations of delta-depth/delta-age during climatic transitions.

  14. Impact of climate variability on an east Australian bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gräwe, U.; Wolff, J.-O.; Ribbe, J.

    2010-01-01

    The climate along the subtropical east coast of Australia is changing significantly. Rainfall has decreased by about 50 mm per decade and temperature increased by about 0.1 °C per decade during the last 50 years. These changes are likely to impact upon episodes of hypersalinity and the persistence of inverse circulations, which are often characteristic features of the coastal zone in the subtropics and are controlled by the balance between evaporation, precipitation, and freshwater discharge. In this study, observations and results from a general ocean circulation model are used to investigate how current climate trends have impacted upon the physical characteristics of the Hervey Bay, Australia. During the last two decades, mean precipitation in Hervey Bay deviates by 13% from the climatology (1941-2000). In the same time, the river discharge is reduced by 23%. In direct consequence, the frequency of hypersaline and inverse conditions has increased. Moreover, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased and the evaporation induced residual circulation has accelerated. Contrary to the drying trend, the occurrence of severe rainfalls, associated with floods, leads to short-term fluctuations in the salinity. These freshwater discharge events are used to estimate a typical response time for the bay.

  15. Impacts of Climate Trends and Variability on Livestock Production in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, A.; Munger, J.; Gibbs, H.

    2015-12-01

    Cattle systems of Brazil are of major economic and environmental importance. They occupy ¼ of the land surface of the country, account for over 15 billion USD of annual revenue through the sale of beef, leather, and milk, are closely associated with deforestation, and have been projected to substantially grow in the coming decades. Sustainable intensification of production in the sector could help to limit environmental harm from increased production, but productivity growth could be inhibited by climate change. Gauging the potential future impacts of climate change on the Brazilian livestock sector can be aided by examining past evidence of the link between climate and cattle production and productivity. We use statistical techniques to investigate the contribution of climate variability and climate change to variability in cattle system output in Brazil's municipalities over the period 1974 to 2013. We find significant impacts of both temperature and precipitation variability and temperature trends on municipality-level exports and the production of both milk and beef. Pasture productivity, represented by a vegetation index, also varies significantly with climate shocks. In some regions, losses from exposure to climate trends were of comparable magnitude to technology and/or market-driven productivity gains over the study period.

  16. Combining data sources to characterise climatic variability for hydrological modelling in high mountain catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritchard, David; Fowler, Hayley; Bardossy, Andras; O'Donnell, Greg; Forsythe, Nathan

    2016-04-01

    Robust hydrological modelling of high mountain catchments to support water resources management depends critically on the accuracy of climatic input data. However, the hydroclimatological complexity and sparse measurement networks typically characteristic of these environments present significant challenges for determining the structure of spatial and temporal variability in key climatic variables. Focusing on the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), this research explores how different data sources can be combined in order to characterise climatic patterns and related uncertainties at the scales required in hydrological modelling. Analysis of local observations with respect to underlying climatic processes and variability is extended relative to previous studies in this region, which forms a basis for evaluating the domains of applicability and potential insights associated with selected remote sensing and reanalysis products. As part of this, the information content of recent high resolution simulations for understanding climatic patterns is assessed, with particular reference to the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR). A strategy for integrating these different data sources to obtain plausible realisations of the distributed climatic fields needed for hydrological modelling is developed on the basis of this analysis, which provides a platform for exploring uncertainties arising from potential biases and other sources of error. The interaction between uncertainties in climatic input data and alternative approaches to process parameterisation in hydrological and cryospheric modelling is explored.

  17. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  18. Shifts in climate foster exceptional opportunities for species radiation: the case of South african geraniums.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo I Martínez-Cabrera

    Full Text Available Climate change is often assumed to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, it can also set the stage for novel diversification in lineages with the evolutionary ability to colonize new environments. Here we tested if the extraordinary evolutionary success of the genus Pelargonium was related to the ability of its species to capitalize on the climate niche variation produced by the historical changes in southern Africa. We evaluated the relationship between rates of climate niche evolution and diversification rates in the main Pelargonium lineages and disentangled the roles of deep and recent historical events in the modification of species niches. Pelargonium clades exhibiting higher ecological differentiation along summer precipitation (SPP gradients also experienced higher diversification rates. Faster rates of niche differentiation in spatially structured variables, along with lower levels of niche overlap among closely related species, suggest recent modification in species niches (e.g. dispersal or range shift and niche lability. We suggest that highly structured SPP gradients established during the aridification process within southern Africa, in concert with niche lability and low niche overlap, contributed to species divergence. These factors are likely to be responsible for the extensive diversification of other lineages in this diversity hot spot.

  19. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability:The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2011-01-01

    Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrat

  20. Climate Variability and Change as Perceived by Rural Communities in Swaziland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norman Mhazo

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the research was to determine the perception of climate variability and change by rural communities in Swaziland. Interviews were conducted to a total of 60 members of three rural communities (20 from each community selected from Middleveld, Lowveld and the Lubombo ecological zones. The reported signs of climate variability included late rains, low rains, drought and famine. The effects of climate variability felt by community members included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields. The majority of the community members did not provide any scientifically proven causes of climate variability. The causes cited included that of community not keeping Swazi customs, supernatural powers and that of being an act of God. Community members did not have adequate information on climate variability and change. The limited information accessible to many communities was through the local radio in the form of daily weather forecast. The information was found to lack details and of a very short term nature. The feelings of the community members were that weather forecast should provide medium to long-term information. The weather prediction focused on major towns, and was of less relevance to many rural communities. Communities suggested an effective early warning system to operate at constituency level. They specified need for weather stations at community levels in order for them to monitor and record weather data.

  1. Information-Theoretic Methods for Identifying Relationships among Climate Variables

    CERN Document Server

    Knuth, Kevin H; Rossow, William B

    2014-01-01

    Information-theoretic quantities, such as entropy, are used to quantify the amount of information a given variable provides. Entropies can be used together to compute the mutual information, which quantifies the amount of information two variables share. However, accurately estimating these quantities from data is extremely challenging. We have developed a set of computational techniques that allow one to accurately compute marginal and joint entropies. These algorithms are probabilistic in nature and thus provide information on the uncertainty in our estimates, which enable us to establish statistical significance of our findings. We demonstrate these methods by identifying relations between cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and data from other sources, such as equatorial pacific sea surface temperatures (SST).

  2. Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Ortega, Pablo; Khodri, Myriam; Menegoz, Martin; Cassou, Christophe; Hanquiez, Vincent

    2017-03-01

    Volcanic eruptions eject largeamounts of materials into the atmosphere, which can have an impact on climate. In particular, the sulphur dioxide gas released in the stratosphere leads to aerosol formation that reflects part of the incoming solar radiation, thereby affecting the climate energy balance. In this review paper, we analyse the regional climate imprints of large tropical volcanic explosive eruptions. For this purpose, we focus on the impact on three major climatic modes, located in the Atlantic (the North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: AMO) and Pacific (the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) sectors. We present an overview of the chain of events that contributes to modifying the temporal variability of these modes. Our literature review is complemented by new analyses based on observations of the instrumental era as well as on available proxy records and climate model simulations that cover the last millennium. We show that the impact of volcanic eruptions of the same magnitude or weaker than 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the NAO and ENSO is hard to detect, due to the noise from natural climate variability. There is however a clear impact of the direct radiative forcing resulting from tropical eruptions on the AMO index both in reconstructions and climate model simulations of the last millennium, while the impact on the ocean circulation remains model-dependent. To increase the signal to noise ratio and better evaluate the climate response to volcanic eruptions, improved reconstructions of these climatic modes and of the radiative effect of volcanic eruptions are required on a longer time frame than the instrumental era. Finally, we evaluate climate models' capabilities to reproduce the observed and anticipated impacts and mechanisms associated with volcanic forcing, and assess their potential for seasonal to decadal prediction. We find a very large spread in the simulated responses across the different climate

  3. Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel S. [Leibniz-Inst. fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability is investigated by means of a multimillennial control run and forced experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The internal variability is studied by analyzing the control run. The externally forced variability is investigated in a run with periodic millennial solar forcing and in greenhouse warming experiments with enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. The surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere simulated in the control run displays enhanced variability relative to the red background at decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. Special emphasis is given to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The MOC plays an important role in the generation of internal climate modes. Furthermore, the MOC provides a strong negative feedback on the Northern Hemisphere SAT in both the solar and greenhouse warming experiments, thereby moderating the direct effects of the external forcing in the North Atlantic. The implications of the results for decadal predictability are discussed. (orig.)

  4. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  5. Land surface phenological response to decadal climate variability across Australia using satellite remote sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Broich

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Land surface phenological cycles of vegetation greening and browning are influenced by variability in climatic forcing. Quantitative information on phenological cycles and their variability is important for agricultural applications, wildfire fuel accumulation, land management, land surface modeling, and climate change studies. Most phenology studies have focused on temperature-driven Northern Hemisphere systems, where phenology shows annually reoccurring patterns. Yet, precipitation-driven non-annual phenology of arid and semi-arid systems (i.e. drylands received much less attention, despite the fact that they cover more than 30% of the global land surface. Here we focused on Australia, the driest inhabited continent with one of the most variable rainfall climates in the world and vast areas of dryland systems. Detailed and internally consistent studies investigating phenological cycles and their response to climate variability across the entire continent designed specifically for Australian dryland conditions are missing. To fill this knowledge gap and to advance phenological research, we used existing methods more effectively to study geographic and climate-driven variability in phenology over Australia. We linked derived phenological metrics with rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI. We based our analysis on Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS from 2000 to 2013, which included extreme drought and wet years. We conducted a continent-wide investigation of the link between phenology and climate variability and a more detailed investigation over the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB, the primary agricultural area and largest river catchment of Australia. Results showed high inter- and intra-annual variability in phenological cycles. Phenological cycle peaks occurred not only during the austral summer but at any time of the year, and their timing varied by more than a month in

  6. The impact of climate change and variability on the generation of electrical power

    OpenAIRE

    Hagen Koch; Stefan Vögele; Fred F. Hattermann; Shaochun Huang

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability and change affect electricity generation in several ways. Electricity generation is directly dependent on climate/weather parameters like wind (wind power generation) or air temperature and resulting water temperature (thermal power plants). River discharge as a result of precipitation and temperature, the latter being one main factor influencing evapotranspiration, is important for hydro power generation and cooling of thermal power plants. In this study possible effects ...

  7. Comparative response of Rangifer tarandus and other northern ungulates to climatic variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert B. Weladji

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available To understand the factors influencing life history traits and population dynamics, attention is increasingly being given to the importance of environmental stochasticity. In this paper, we review and discuss aspects of current knowledge concerning the effect of climatic variation (local and global on population parameters of northern ungu¬lates, with special emphasis on reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus. We also restrict ourselves to indirect effects of climate through both forage availability and quality, and insect activity. Various authors have used different weather variables; with sometime opposite trends in resulting life history traits of ungulates, and few studies show consistent effects to the same climatic variables. There is thus little consensus about which weather variables play the most sig¬nificant role influencing ungulate population parameters. This may be because the effects of weather on ungulate pop¬ulation dynamics and life history traits are scale dependent and it is difficult to isolate climatic effects from density dependent factors. This confirms the complexity of the relationship between environment and ecosystem. We point out limits of comparability between systems and the difficulty of generalizing about the effect of climate change broadly across northern systems, across species and even within species. Furthermore, insect harassment appears to be a key climate-related factor for the ecology of reindeer/caribou that has been overlooked in the literature of climatic effects on large herbivores. In light of this, there is a need for further studies of long time series in assessing effects of climate variability on reindeer/caribou.

  8. Spatiotemporal variability of reference evapotranspiration and contributing climatic factors in China during 1961-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhaoli; Xie, Peiwei; Lai, Chengguang; Chen, Xiaohong; Wu, Xushu; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Li, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important parameter for characterization of the hydrological cycle, and it is also important for agricultural, environmental and other studies. The ETo for 4189 grid points in China from 1961 to 2013 was calculated in this study utilizing the FAO Penman-Monteith method (P-M) based on an updated high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) gridded dataset. Five climatic variables including wind speed (WS), sunlight duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), maximum daily temperature (Tm) and minimum daily temperature (Tn), were selected to identify the contribution to variability of ETo. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of each climatic variable was also investigated. Results indicate that (1) ETo distribution in China differed significantly both in seasonal and spatial scale in general, and annual ETo significantly decreased 6.84 mm/decade (P < 0.05); a turning point occurred in 1982 for the temporal variability of ETo and the fluctuation periods of 2.4- and 3.4-years existed in the ETo series. (2) WS was the most influential climatic variable related to ETo variability with relative contribution of 32.31%, followed by Tm (26.65%), SD (19.70%), RH (14.33%) and Tn (7.02%); significant declines (P < 0.05) of WS and SD were indicated in the decrease of ETo while the increase of Tm and Tn and the decrease of RH contributed to enhancing ETo. (3) Relative contributions of climatic variables to ETo were temporally unstable and varied considerably in the nine agricultural regions and the whole China; spatial distribution for relative contribution of various climatic variables showed significant diversity among various agricultural regions. The results have the potential to provide a reference for agricultural production and management in China.

  9. Local Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change in Tropical Forests of Papua, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Boissière

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available People everywhere experience changes and events that impact their lives. Knowing how they perceive, react, and adapt to climatic changes and events is helpful in developing strategies to support adaptation to climate change. Mamberamo in Papua, Indonesia, is a sparsely populated watershed of 7.8 million hectares possessing rich tropical forests. Our study compares scientific and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK on climate, and analyzes how local people in Mamberamo perceive and react to climatic variations. We compared meteorological data for the region with local views gathered through focus group discussions and interviews in six villages. We explored the local significance of seasonality, climate variability, and climate change. Mamberamo is subject to strikingly low levels of climatic variation; nonetheless local people highlighted certain problematic climate-related events such as floods and droughts. As our results illustrate, the implications vary markedly among villages. People currently consider climate variation to have little impact on their livelihoods when contrasted with other factors, e.g., logging, mining, infrastructure development, and political decentralization. Nonetheless, increased salinity of water supplies, crop loss due to floods, and reduced hunting success are concerns in specific villages. To gain local engagement, adaptation strategies should initially focus on factors that local people already judge important. Based on our results we demonstrate that TEK, and an assessment of local needs and concerns, provide practical insights for the development and promotion of locally relevant adaptation strategies. These insights offer a foundation for further engagement.

  10. Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dall' Amico, Mauro [University of Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading (United Kingdom); Institut fuer Physik der Atmosphaere, Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany); Stott, Peter A.; Scaife, Adam A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Gray, Lesley J. [University of Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading (United Kingdom); Rosenlof, Karen H. [NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO (United States); Karpechko, Alexey Yu. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2010-02-15

    An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979-2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichon eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichon eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed. (orig.)

  11. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activity to streamflow variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Chang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impacts of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impacts on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resources management. By using an elasticity-based method, calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrologic models, we have quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activity and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinhe basin located in northwest of China. This is an important watershed of Shaanxi Province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million. The results from the three methods show that both human activity and climatic differences can have major effects on catchment streamflow, and the estimates of climate variability impacts from the hydrological models are similar to those from the elasticity-based method. Compared with the baseline period of 1960–1970, streamflow greatly decreased during 2001–2010. The change impacts of human activity and climate variability in 2001–2010 were about 83.5 and 16.5% of the total reduction respectively when averaged over the three methods. The maximum contribution value of human activity was appeared in 1981–1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal, which was 95, 112.5 and 92.4% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. The maximum value of the aridity index (E0/P was 1.91 appeared in 1991–2000. Compared with 1960–1970 baseline period, climate variability made the greatest contributions reduction in 1991–2000, which was 47.4, 43.9 and 29.9% from TOPMODEL, VIC model and elasticity-based method respectively. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occurre in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty and elasticity-based method (model parameter in climate change impact studies.

  12. Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

    2015-01-15

    Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions.

  13. Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

    2016-07-01

    This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing

  14. Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashyap, A

    2004-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities.

  15. Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Ermolli, I; de Wit, T Dudok; Krivova, N A; Tourpali, K; Weber, M; Unruh, Y C; Gray, L; Langematz, U; Pilewskie, P; Rozanov, E; Schmutz, W; Shapiro, A; Solanki, S K; Woods, T N

    2013-01-01

    The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth's atmosphere. Motivated by these results, we summarize here our current knowledge of SSI variability and its impact on Earth's climate. We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measurements and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earth's atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temp...

  16. Effects of climate oscillations on wind resource variability in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B. D.; Hamlington, P. E.; Collins, S. G.; Alexander, S. R.; Kim, K.-Y.

    2015-01-01

    Natural climate variations in the United States wind resource are assessed by using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) to decompose wind reanalysis data. Compared to approaches that average climate signals or assume stationarity of the wind resource on interannual time scales, the CSEOF analysis isolates variability associated with specific climate oscillations, as well as their modulation from year to year. Contributions to wind speed variability from the modulated annual cycle (MAC) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are quantified, and information provided by the CSEOF analysis further allows the spatial variability of these effects to be determined. The impacts of the MAC and ENSO on the wind resource are calculated at existing wind turbine locations in the United States, revealing variations in the wind speed of up to 30% at individual sites. The results presented here have important implications for predictions of wind plant power output and siting.

  17. Climate variability and ocean fertility during the Aptian Stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottini, C.; Erba, E.; Tiraboschi, D.; Jenkyns, H. C.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.

    2015-03-01

    Several studies have been conducted to reconstruct temperature variations across the Aptian Stage, particularly during early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a. There is a general consensus that a major warming characterized OAE 1a, although some studies have provided evidence for transient "cold snaps" or cooler intervals during the event. The climatic conditions for the middle-late Aptian are less constrained, and a complete record through the Aptian is not available. Here we present a reconstruction of surface-water palaeotemperature and fertility based on calcareous nannofossil records from the Cismon and Piobbico cores (Tethys) and DSDP Site 463 (Pacific Ocean). The data, integrated with oxygen-isotope and TEX86 records, provide a detailed picture of climatic and ocean fertility changes during the Aptian Stage, which are discussed in relation to the direct/indirect role of volcanism. Warm temperatures characterized the pre-OAE 1a interval, followed by a maximum warming (of ~ 1.5-2 °C) during the early phase of anoxia under intense volcanic activity of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP). A short-lived cooling episode interrupted the major warming, following a rapid increase in weathering rates. Nannofossils indicate that mesotrophic conditions were reached when temperatures were at their highest and OJP volcanism most intense, thus suggesting that continental runoff, together with increased input of hydrothermal metals, increased nutrient supply to the oceans. The latter part of OAE 1a was characterized by cooling events, probably promoted by CO2 sequestration during burial of organic matter. In this phase, high productivity was probably maintained by N2-fixing cyanobacteria, while nannofossil taxa indicating higher fertility were rare. The end of anoxia coincided with the cessation of volcanism and a pronounced cooling. The mid-Aptian was characterized by highest surface-water fertility and progressively decreasing temperatures, probably resulting from intense

  18. Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate.Part Ⅱ: Dominant Timescales in Decadal-Centennial Climate Variability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hengyi WENG

    2012-01-01

    Part Ⅱ of this study detects the dominant decadal-centennial timescales in four SST indices up to the 2010/2011 winter and tries to relate them to the observed 11-yr and 88-yr solar activity with the sunspot number up to Solar Cycle 24.To explore plausible solar origins of the observed decadal-centennial timescales in the SSTs and climate variability in general,we design a simple one-dimensional dynamical system forced by an annual cycle modulated by a small-amplitude single- or multi-scale “solar activity.” Results suggest that nonlinear harmonic and subharmonic resonance of the system to the forcing and period-doubling bifurcations are responsible for the dominant timescales in the system,including the 60-yr timescale that dominates the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.The dominant timescales in the forced system depend on the system's parameter setting.Scale enhancement among the dominant response timescales may result in dramatic amplifications over a few decades and extreme values of the time series on various timescales.Three possible energy sources for such amplifications and extremes are proposed.Dynamical model results suggest that solar activity may play an important yet not well recognized role in the observed decadal-centennial climate variability.The atmospheric dynamical amplifying mechanism shown in Part Ⅰ and the nonlinear resonant and bifurcation mechanisms shown in Part Ⅱ help us to understand the solar source of the multi-scale climate change in the 20th century and the fact that different solar influenced dominant timescales for recurrent climate extremes for a given region or a parameter setting.Part Ⅱ also indicates that solar influences on climate cannot be linearly compared with non-cyclic or sporadic thermal forcings because they cannot exert their influences on climate in the same way as the sun does.

  19. Methodological discussion for interdisciplinary project on the effects of climatic variability on cropping systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capa-Morocho, M.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Campus of International Excellence Moncloa (CEI, 2009) is a joint project of the Universities Complutense (UCM) and Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) which aims to promote connectivity between both of them in a context of scientific excellence. Within this framework an interdisciplinary doctoral Thesis is being developed, whose methodological line is presented here to collect the comments from the international scientific community. The aim of the Thesis is to assess the effect of the climatic variability in the agricultural systems of the Iberian Peninsula. It takes place between the group of agricultural systems (AgSystems) of the UPM and the TROPA group of Climatic Variability of the UCM. The provisional methodology consists on using time series of simulated crop yields and to correlate the monthly deviations with different atmospheric and oceanic anomalous fields in order to characterize the climate variability patterns affecting the fluctuations in productivity. We use observed data of climate reanalysis, general circulation models and crop simulation models. We have identified a common tool to connect both modeling disciplines: MATLAB software is used to program the functions used in data processing, for both climate and agricultural data. In this paper the methodological scheme will be shown. Both the potentials and synergies that we are finding between the group of modelers of climate and cropping systems, as well as the problems and methodological points to be resolved will be specified. We invite researchers with similar experiences to contribute to this discussion.

  20. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  1. Depletion and response of deep groundwater to climate-induced pumping variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Tess A.; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-01-01

    Groundwater constitutes a critical component of our water resources. Widespread groundwater level declines have occurred in the USA over recent decades, including in regions not typically considered water stressed, such as areas of the Northwest and mid-Atlantic Coast. This loss of water storage reflects extraction rates that exceed natural recharge and capture. Here, we explore recent changes in the groundwater levels of deep aquifers from wells across the USA, and their relation to indices of interannual to decadal climate variability and to annual precipitation. We show that groundwater level changes correspond to selected global climate variations. Although climate-induced variations of deep aquifer natural recharge are expected to have multi-year time lags, we find that deep groundwater levels respond to climate over timescales of less than one year. In irrigated areas, the annual response to local precipitation in the deepest wells may reflect climate-induced pumping variability. An understanding of how the human response to drought through pumping leads to deep groundwater changes is critical to manage the impacts of interannual to decadal and longer climate variability on the nation’s water resources.

  2. Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, T Edward; Swindles, Graeme T; Charman, Dan J; Langdon, Peter G; Morris, Paul J; Booth, Robert K; Parry, Lauren E; Nichols, Jonathan E

    2016-04-05

    Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. (14)C or (10)Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40-100 years, and 120-140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.

  3. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2016-10-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  4. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  5. Water management to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdy, A.; Trisorio-Liuzzi, G.

    2009-04-01

    In many parts of the world, variability in climatic conditions is already resulting in major impacts. These impacts are wide ranging and the link to water management problems is obvious and profound. The know-how and the available information undoubtedly indicate that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supply for sectorial water uses and, in particular, the irrigation field imposing notable negative effects on food security and poverty alleviation programs in most arid and semi-arid developing countries. At the United Nations Millennium Summit, in September 2000, world leaders adopted the Millennium Development Declaration. From this declaration, the IWRM was recognised as the key concept the water sector should be using for water related development and measures and, hence, for achieving the water related MDG's. However, the potential impacts of climate change and increasing climate variability are not sufficiently addressed in the IWRM plans. Indeed, only a very limited IWRM national plans have been prepared, coping with climate variability and changes. This is mainly due to the lack of operational instruments to deal with climate change and climate variability issues. This is particularly true in developing countries where the financial, human and ecological impacts are potentially greatest and where water resources may be already highly stressed, but the capacity to cope and adapt is weakest. Climate change has now brought realities including mainly rising temperatures and increasing frequency of floods and droughts that present new challenges to be addressed by the IWRM practice. There are already several regional and international initiatives underway that focus on various aspects of water resources management those to be linked with climate changes and vulnerability issues. This is the way where the water resources

  6. Final Report: Climate Variability, Stochasticity and Learning in Integrated Assessment Models, September 15, 1996 - September 14, 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolstad, Charles D.

    1999-09-14

    The focus of the work has been on climate variability and learning within computational climate-economy models (integrated assessment models--IAM's). The primary objective of the research is to improve the representation of learning in IAM's. This include's both endogenous and exogenous learning. A particular focus is on Bayesian learning about climate damage. A secondary objective is to improve the representation of climate variability within IAM's.

  7. Low frequency variability of Climate-Related-Energy penetration in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raynaud, Damien; Baptiste, François; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2016-04-01

    The penetration rate of Climate Related Energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power source measures the mismatch between the energy availability from those fatal productions and the energy demand which may be also partly dependent on the climate. The penetration rate is a key factor - with potentially large technical and economic implications, to be accounted for in public policies and private initiatives for a massive integration of renewables in the classical energy system. For a given region, it is classically estimated from high resolution time series of energy productions and energy demand derived from times series of their driving climatic variables (temperature, wind, radiation, precipitation). The penetration rate obviously highly depends on the seasonal and also high frequency time variability of these climatic variables (François et al. 2016). A less studied aspect of this penetration rate is its dependence to low frequency variability of climate, from annual to pluriannual time scales. We here explore this dependence for a set of 12 contrasted hydroclimatic regions in Europe with long time series of weather variables reconstructed for the whole 20th century. We discuss the interannual, and interdecadal variability of the penetration rate for the solar-power, wind-power and run-of-the river energy sources taken individually and for different mixes. We discuss how it can be increased / stabilized with local energy storage. Reference : François, B, Hingray, B., Raynaud, R., Borga, M. and Creutin, J.D., 2016. Increasing Climate-Related-Energy penetration by integrating run-of-the river hydropower to wind/solar mix. Renewable Energy. 87(1), pp.686-696. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.064 This work is part of the COMPLEX Project (European Collaborative Project FP7-ENV-2012 number: 308601; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

  8. Ecological response of Cedrus atlantica to climate variability in the Massif of Guetiane (Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Slimani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: The study analyzes the long-term response of Atlas cedar, Cedrus atlantica (Manneti, to climate variability. Area of study: Atlas cedar forest of Guetiane (Batna, Algeria.Material and methods: The dendrochronological approach was adopted. An Atlas cedar tree-ring chronology was established from twenty trees. The response of the species to climate variability was assessed through the pointer years (PYs, the common climate signal among the individual chronologies, expressed by the first component (PC1, the mean sensitivity (msx, and response function and correlations analysis involving the tree-ring index and climate data (monthly mean temperature and total precipitation.Results: The highest growth variability was registered from the second half of the 20th century. The lower than the mean PYs, the PC1, and the msx increased markedly during the studied period. Dramatic increases in the PC1 and msx were detected at the end of the 1970s, reflecting a shift towards drier conditions enhancing an increasing trend towards more synchronous response of trees to climate conditions. The response function and correlations analysis showed that tree growth was mainly influenced by precipitation variability.Research highlights: Our findings provide baseline knowledge concerning the ecological response of Atlas cedar to climate variability in in its southern distribution limit, where a high level of tree mortality has been observed during recent decades, coinciding with the driest period Algeria has ever experienced. This information is vital to support ongoing ecosystem management efforts in the region. Keywords: Atlas cedar; annual growth variability; dieback; dendrochronology. 

  9. Adaptation strategies to climate variability and change and its limitations to smallholder farmers. A literature search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Phillipo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of information. The collected information were analysed by using content analysis. This paper found that smallholder farmers use a variety of practices to adapt to climate variability and change. These practices include: crop management, livestock management, diversification of livelihood strategies and land use management. Availability of extension services, climate change information and membership to social networks were among the factors identified dictating smallholder farmers adaptation to climate variability and change. The paper recommends to the Government of sub-Saharan Africa and development partners to come up with adaptation framework that takes into consideration differences in geographical location. They are needed also to provide enabling conditions to smallholder farmers through strengthening farmers’ supportive services to enhance their adaptive capacities.

  10. Sensitivity analysis of a forest gap model concerning current and future climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lasch, P.; Suckow, F.; Buerger, G.; Lindner, M.

    1998-07-01

    The ability of a forest gap model to simulate the effects of climate variability and extreme events depends on the temporal resolution of the weather data that are used and the internal processing of these data for growth, regeneration and mortality. The climatological driving forces of most current gap models are based on monthly means of weather data and their standard deviations, and long-term monthly means are used for calculating yearly aggregated response functions for ecological processes. In this study, the results of sensitivity analyses using the forest gap model FORSKA{sub -}P and involving climate data of different resolutions, from long-term monthly means to daily time series, including extreme events, are presented for the current climate and for a climate change scenario. The model was applied at two sites with differing soil conditions in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The sensitivity of the model concerning climate variations and different climate input resolutions is analysed and evaluated. The climate variability used for the model investigations affected the behaviour of the model substantially. (orig.)

  11. Stochastic investigation of precipitation process for climatic variability identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotiriadou, Alexia; Petsiou, Amalia; Feloni, Elisavet; Kastis, Paris; Iliopoulou, Theano; Markonis, Yannis; Tyralis, Hristos; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2016-04-01

    The precipitation process is important not only to hydrometeorology but also to renewable energy resources management. We use a dataset consisting of daily and hourly records around the globe to identify statistical variability with emphasis on the last period. Specifically, we investigate the occurrence of mean, maximum and minimum values and we estimate statistical properties such as marginal probability distribution function and the type of decay of the climacogram (i.e., mean process variance vs. scale). Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  12. Climate Variability: Adaptation Strategies for Colorado River Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulp, T. J.; Prairie, J. R.

    2008-12-01

    The importance of the Colorado River system to the western United States and the Republic of Mexico is well documented. Much has been written recently in response to the lingering drought and increasing demands on the system. Questions such as "has the river run out of water?", "how low can it go?", and "will Lake Mead go dry?" express the concern that the river system will be hard-pressed to continue to meet future demands, particularly if droughts tend toward increased magnitudes and longer durations. Reservoirs on the main stream of the Colorado River are managed by the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), on behalf of the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior (Secretary). Over 80% of the 60 million acre-feet of storage capacity is contained in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, large reservoirs that are located in each of the sub-basins (Upper Basin and Lower Basin) defined in the 1922 Colorado River Compact. In response to the worst drought conditions in approximately one hundred years of recorded history and the lack of specific operational guidelines for operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead for drought and low reservoir conditions, the Secretary adopted new operational guidelines in December 2007 that will be used for an interim period (through 2026). The Interim Guidelines were the result of an intense, three-year effort in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). Several alternative operational rules were compared with respect to future potential impacts to Colorado River resources, including lake levels, water delivery, hydropower production, water quality, recreation, and fish and wildlife and published in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Due to the large uncertainty regarding future inflows into the system, particularly in a changing climate, these comparisons were presented in probabilistic terms in order to assess the risk of key events (e.g., the timing and magnitude of water shortages). Because it is

  13. Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

  14. The ESA climate change initiative: Satellite data records for essential climate variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollmann, R.; Merchant, C.J.; Saunders, R.

    2013-01-01

    that both ESA and third parties have established. This includes aspects of producing a CDR, which involve data acquisition, calibration, algorithm development, validation, maintenance, and provision of the data to the climate research community. The CCI is consistent with several international efforts...

  15. The influence of solar variability past, present and future, on North Atlantic climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunstone, Nick; Scaife, Adam; Ineson, Sarah; Gray, Lesley; Knight, Jeff; Lockwood, Mike; Maycock, Amanda

    2014-05-01

    There has long existed observational evidence for a link between solar activity (both the semi-regular 11-yr cycle and longer term variability) and regional climate variability. In the last few years progress is starting to be made in understanding such observational correlations from physical mechanistic viewpoint. Firstly, new observations of solar spectral irradiance from the SORCE satellite have raised the possibility of much larger variability in the UV than previously appreciated. Secondly, state of the art computer climate models now explicitly resolve the Earth's stratosphere allowing the influence of solar variability to be simulated here. By driving such climate models with the larger solar UV variability implied by the latest satellite observations, surface climate impacts have been shown in the Northern Hemisphere winter that are consistent with late 20th century climate data. Low solar activity is associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hence colder winters over northern Europe and the USA. We discuss the implications for seasonal/decadal climate prediction. Further work has examined the role of ocean feedbacks in amplifying this tropospheric response. There is robust statistical evidence that such a feedback operates in the observations and gives a lag of 3-4 years for the maximum tropospheric response after the maximum solar forcing. This lag does not generally appear to be reproduced by current climate models. We discuss how this observational evidence may be a valuable way of assessing the relative strength of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the present generation of climate models. The prolonged solar minimum during the transition between solar cycles 23 & 24, combined with the relatively low maximum activity of cycle 24, have increased suggestions that we may be coming to the end of the grand solar maximum which dominated the 20th century. A return to Maunder Minimum like solar activity is therefore a possible

  16. Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with

  17. The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W.

    2013-12-01

    The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward

  18. Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2007-12-01

    Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

  19. Responses of Montane Forest to Climate Variability in the Central Himalayas of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janardan Mainali

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes are having dramatic ecological impacts in mid- to high-latitude mountain ranges where growth conditions are limited by climatic variables such as duration of growing season, moisture, and ambient temperature. We document patterns of forest vegetative response for 5 major alpine forest communities to current climate variability in the central Himalayas of Nepal to provide a baseline for assessment of future changes, as well as offer some insight into the trajectory of these changes over time. We used mean monthly surface air temperature and rainfall and the monthly averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI to compare relative vegetation productivity among forest types and in relation to both climatic variables. Because changes in temperature and precipitation are directly manifested as changes in phenology, we examined current vegetative responses to climate variability in an effort to determine which climate variable is most critical for different alpine forest types. Our results show that correlations differ according to vegetation type and confirm that both precipitation and temperature affect monthly NDVI values, though more significant correlations were found with temperature data. The temperature response was more consistent because at the maximum increased temperatures, there was still an ongoing increase in vegetative vigor. This indicates that temperature is still the major limiting factor for plant growth at higher-elevation sites. This part of the Himalayas has abundant moisture, and some forest types are already saturated in terms of growth in relation to precipitation. Clear increases in productivity are documented on the upper treeline ecotones, and these systems are likely to continue to have increasing growth rates.

  20. Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Liang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the geography of phenological model prediction (first leaf represents the instantaneous effect of contemporary climate, the normalized land surface phenology potentially reveals vegetation heterogeneity that is related to climatic adaptation. The study was done at the continental scale for the conterminous U.S., with a focus on the eastern humid temperate domain. Our findings suggest that, in an analogous scenario, if a uniform contemporary climate existed everywhere, spring vegetation greenup would occur earlier in the north than in the south. This is in accordance with known species-level clinal variations—for many temperate plant species, populations adapted to colder climates require less thermal forcing to initiate growth than those in warmer climates. This study, for the first time, shows that such geographic adaption relationships are supported at the ecosystem level. Mapping large-scale vegetation climate adaptation patterns contributes to our ability to better track geographically varied phenological responses to climate change.

  1. Climate Variability, Dissolved Organic Carbon, UV Exposure, and Amphibian Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, P. D.; O'Reilly, C. M.; Diamond, S.; Corn, S.; Muths, E.; Tonnessen, K.; Campbell, D. H.

    2001-12-01

    Increasing levels of UV radiation represent a potential threat to aquatic organisms in a wide range of environments, yet controls on in situ variability on UV exposure are relatively unknown. The primary control on the penetration of UV radiation in surface water environments is the amount of photoreactive dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Consequently, biogeochemical processes that control the cycling of DOC also affect the exposure of aquatic organisms to UV radiation. Three years of monitoring UV extinction and DOC composition in Rocky Mountain, Glacier, Sequoia/ Kings Canyon, and Olympic National Parks demonstrate that the amount of fulvic acid DOC is much more important than the total DOC pool in controlling UV attenuation. This photoreactive component of DOC originates primarily in soil, and is subject both to biogeochemical controls (e.g. temperature, moisture, vegetation, soil type) on production, and hydrologic controls on transport to surface water and consequently UV exposure to aquatic organisms. Both of these controls are positively related to precipitation with greater production and transport associated with higher precipitation amounts. For example, an approximately 20 percent reduction in precipitation from 1999 to 2000 resulted in a 27% - 59% reduction in the amount of photoreactive DOC at three sites in Rocky Mountain National Park. These differences in the amount of hydrophobic DOC result in an increase in UV exposure in the aquatic environment by a factor of 2 or more. Implications of these findings for observed patterns of amphibian decline will be discussed.

  2. Climatic variability of the column ozone over the Iranian plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavi, Seyyed Shafi; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Rahimi, Yousef Ghavidel; Bidokhti, Abbasali Aliakbari

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzes the total ozone column (TOC) variability over the Iranian plateau (Esfahan) from 1978 to 2011. Results show that the annual average of TOC in Esfahan tends to decrease with time, which is strongly dependent on the season, with maximum values during the winter-spring months (more than 2.2 %/decade). By applying a defined threshold that includes the TOC monthly -2σ, it is found that the maximum occurrence of low ozone events (LOEs) tends to be more frequent in the second half of year with about four-fifth of the observed LOEs (last summer, autumn, and early winter). During two cases of LOE, the tropopause height (TH) was uplifted ~2-4 km with temperature of 10 °C colder than the long-term mean, and the synoptic pattern was characterized by high-pressure systems in UTLS region. The extreme LOEs were consistent with the horizontal transport of ozone-poor air toward the Iranian plateau and vertical advection in UTLS region. The former mechanism plays a primary role in formation of extreme LOEs based on the observed TOC reductions during previous days over the source regions (Sahara desert and Himalaya region). Day-to-day variations of maximum UV index during LOEs show that by a decrease in TOC ~14 %, while the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the cloudless condition reach their lowest rates (lower than 0.3), UV radiation exceeds very high and extreme levels in late winter and mid-spring, respectively.

  3. Long-term measurements of solar spectral irradiance variability: toward the establishment of a climate record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Erik; Harder, Jerald; Pilewskie, Peter; Fontenla, Juan; Woods, Thomas; Brown, Steven; Lykke, Keith

    Knowledge of the top of the atmosphere (TOA) solar spectral irradiance (SSI) is crucial in interpreting the spectrally dependent radiative processes throughout Earth's climate system. Where this energy is deposited into the atmosphere and surface, how the climate responds to solar variability, and the mechanisms of climate response, are highly dependent on how the incident solar radiation is distributed with wavelength. In order to advance understanding of how natural and anthropogenic process affect Earth's climate system there is a strong scientific imperative to maintain accurate, long-term records of climate forcing and response. The contin-uation of SSI measurements provides a unique opportunity to characterize poorly understood wavelength dependent climate processes. Coupled chemistry-climate models require realistic assessments of the magnitudes and long-term trends in SSI for the interpretation and quantifi-cation of solar forcing in climate change scenarios. This places stringent requirements on the absolute calibration of the instrument (tied directly to international standards) and the ability to maintain that calibration on-orbit (long-term stability). The Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) is a solar spectral radiometer that continuously monitors the SSI from 200 nm -2400 nm, a wavelength region encompassing 96% of the total solar irradiance. The SIM instrument is included as part of the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) to continue the mea-surement of SSI, which began with the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE), launched in 2003. SORCE SIM measurements have characterized SSI variability during the descending phase of Solar Cycle (SC) 23, but the determination of multi-solar cycle dependen-cies remains a key climatic uncertainty. Analysis of the measured spectral irradiance variability during the SORCE mission has resulted in a number of instrument design refinements central to maintaining, on-orbit, the long-term absolute

  4. A Study on the Impact of Climate Variability/Change on Water Resources in the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents an effort toward a better understanding of the potential impact of climate variability and change on the hydrology and water resources in the Philippines. Impacts of extreme events such as droughts are discussed. A preliminary study on the variability of inflow in relation to rainfall at the major dams in Luzon and the natural water reservoir of Lake Lanao is presented. Areas for future study are also mentioned.

  5. Use of variability modes to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casado, M.J.; Pastor, M.A. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    This paper analyzes the ability of the multi-model simulations from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the main leading modes of variability over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter: the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian mode (SCAND), the East/Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia mode (EA/WR). These modes of variability have been evaluated both spatially, by analyzing the intensity and location of their anomaly centres, as well as temporally, by focusing on the probability density functions and e-folding time scales. The choice of variability modes as a tool for climate model assessment can be justified by the fact that modes of variability determine local climatic conditions and their likely change may have important implications for future climate changes. It is found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably well these four variability modes, the SCAND being the mode which is best spatially simulated. From a temporal point of view the NAO and SCAND modes are the best simulated. UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the models best at reproducing spatial characteristics, whereas CCSM3 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best ones with regard to the temporal features. GISS-AOM is the model showing the worst performance, in terms of both spatial and temporal features. These results may bring new insight into the selection and use of specific models to simulate Euro-Atlantic climate, with some models being clearly more successful in simulating patterns of temporal and spatial variability than others. (orig.)

  6. Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amikuzuno, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

  7. Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, Christian; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Dittmar, Christoph; Rothe, Andreas; Menzel, Annette

    2014-12-01

    The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree-specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree-ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low-growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change.

  8. Climate Variability, Andean Livelihood Strategies, Development and Adaptation in the Andean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, C.; Quiroz, R.; Zorogastua, P.; Baigorrea, G.

    2002-05-01

    Development programs in the Andes have failed to recognize climate variability as an element that is crucial to the adoption of new alternatives. Dairy, potatoes, improved sheep, forages are all part of the history of development in this region. A combination of climate variability, changes in the economy, the political environment, and land tenure reform shape rural livelihoods and welfare. Diversification, linking to markets, and networking are some elements that contribute to the resilience of families in the Andes. Strategies change, are flexible, and may incorporate non-agricultural activities. While some farmers are able to improve their welfare through the life cycle, others become poorer. Climate variability increases the vulnerability of some groups; in other cases, because of diversification and assets, households build economic portfolios that are more resilient to the elements. The many projects provide insights into how in the long run households improve their environment, hinting at mechanisms to adapt to climate change. In order to understand changing composition of portfolios in future scenarios of spatial heterogeneous areas such as mountains (Andes), estimates of models predicting climate change at a global scale are not useful because their resolution. Therefore, downscaling tools are useful. Spatial heterogeneity is assessed through agroecozoning. Both production and the impact on some environmental indicators are simulated through process-based models, for the Ilave-Huenque watershed in Peru that help in discussing scenarios of adaptation.

  9. Impacts of Climate Variability on Latin American Small-scale Fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Defeo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale fisheries (SSFs are social-ecological systems that play a critical role in terms of food security and poverty alleviation in Latin America. These fisheries are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic and climatic drivers acting at multiple scales. We review the effects of climate variability on Latin American SSFs, and discuss the combined effects of two additional human drivers: globalization of markets and governance. We show drastic long-term and large-scale effects of climate variability, e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies, wind intensity, sea level, and climatic indices, on SSFs. These variables, acting in concert with economic drivers, have exacerbated stock depletion rates in Latin American SSFs. The impact of these drivers varied according to the life cycle and latitudinal distribution of the target species, the characteristics of the oceanographic systems, and the inherent features of the social systems. Our review highlights the urgent need to improve management and governance systems to promote resilience as a way to cope with the increasing uncertainty about the impacts of climate and globalization of markets on Latin American SSFs.

  10. Making the best of climatic variability: options for upgrading rainfed farming in water scarce regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, J

    2004-01-01

    Coping with climatic variability for livelihood security is part of everyday life for rural communities in semi-arid and dry sub-humid savannas. Water scarcity caused by rainfall fluctuations is common, causing meteorological droughts and dry spells. However, this paper indicates, based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa and India, that the social impact on rural societies of climatically induced droughts is exaggerated. Instead, water scarcity causing food deficits is more often caused by management induced droughts and dry spells. A conceptual framework to distinguish between manageable and unmanageable droughts is presented. It is suggested that climatic droughts require focus on social resilience building instead of land and water resource management. Focus is then set on the manageable part of climatic variability, namely the almost annual occurrence of dry spells, short 2-4 week periods of no rainfall, affecting farmer yields. On-farm experiences in savannas of sub-Saharan Africa of water harvesting systems for dry spell mitigation are presented. It is shown that bridging dry spells combined with soil fertility management can double and even triple on-farm yield levels. Combined with innovative systems to ensure maximum plant water availability and water uptake capacity, through adoption of soil fertility improvement and conservation tillage systems, there is a clear opportunity to upgrade rainfed farming systems in vulnerable savanna environments, through appropriate local management of climatic variability.

  11. Analysis of ENSO-based climate variability in modulating drought risks over western Rajasthan in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Poulomi Ganguli; M Janga Reddy

    2013-02-01

    This paper investigates the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based climate variability in modulating multivariate drought risks in the drought-prone region of Western Rajasthan in India. Droughts are multivariate phenomenon, often characterized by severity, duration and peak. By using multivariate ENSO index, annual drought events are partitioned into three climatic states – El Niño, La Niña and neutral phases. For multivariate probabilistic representation of drought characteristics, trivariate copulas are employed, which have the ability to preserve the dependence structure of drought variables under uncertain environment. The first copula model is developed without accounting the climate state information to obtain joint and conditional return periods of drought characteristics. Then, copula-based models are developed for each climate state to estimate the joint and conditional probabilities of drought characteristics under each ENSO state. Results of the study suggest that the inclusion of ENSO-based climate variability is helpful in knowing the associated drought risks, and useful for management of water resources in the region.

  12. Studying interactions between climate variability and vegetation dynamic using a phenology based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horion, S.; Cornet, Y.; Erpicum, M.; Tychon, B.

    2013-02-01

    In this paper we investigated if and how a signature of climate control on vegetation growth can be individualized at regional scale using time series of SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI and ECMWF meteorological data. Twelve regions characterized by dominant and stable cropland or grassland covers were selected in Europe and Africa. Our results show that the relationship between NDVI and meteorological parameters is highly complex and significantly vary trough the phenological cycle of the plants. Hence, interactions between vegetation dynamics and climate variability must be studied at a smaller time scale in order to identify properly the limiting factors to vegetation growth. Using NDVI metrics, vegetative phases (from green-up to maximum NDVI) and reproductive phases (from maximum NDVI to maturity) were identified for each region. Cross-correlation analysis revealed that, in most of the cases, the best scores of Pearson's r are obtained when we considered the vegetative phase (from green-up to maximum of NDVI) and the reproductive phase (from maximum of NDVI to maturity) separately. We also showed that climatic constraints identified using yearly proxies of climate and vegetation do not depict correctly or completely the climate control on vegetation development. In that sense the complexity of the climate-vegetation relationship, which is spatially and temporally variable, is well underlined in this study.

  13. [Environmental pollution, climate variability and climate change: a review of health impacts on the Peruvian population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzales, Gustavo F; Zevallos, Alisson; Gonzales-Castañeda, Cynthia; Nuñez, Denisse; Gastañaga, Carmen; Cabezas, César; Naeher, Luke; Levy, Karen; Steenland, Kyle

    2014-01-01

    This article is a review of the pollution of water, air and the effect of climate change on the health of the Peruvian population. A major air pollutant is particulate matter less than 2.5 μ (PM 2.5). In Lima, 2,300 premature deaths annually are attributable to this pollutant. Another problem is household air pollution by using stoves burning biomass fuels, where excessive indoor exposure to PM 2.5 inside the household is responsible for approximately 3,000 annual premature deaths among adults, with another unknown number of deaths among children due to respiratory infections. Water pollution is caused by sewage discharges into rivers, minerals (arsenic) from various sources, and failure of water treatment plants. In Peru, climate change may impact the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been associated with an increase in cases of diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. Climate change increases the temperature and can extend the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, have impact on the availability of water and contamination of the air. In conclusion, Peru is going through a transition of environmental risk factors, where traditional and modern risks coexist and infectious and chronic problems remain, some of which are associated with problems of pollution of water and air.

  14. Climate change: is Southeast Asia up to the challenge?: the roles of climate variability and climate change on smoke haze occurrences in Southeast Asia region

    OpenAIRE

    Tangang, Fredolin

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the smoke-haze episodes in the Southeast Asia region and how their occurrence can be related to climate variability and future climate change in the region. The haze episode over this region has been an almost yearly occurrence but becomes severe during the prolonged dry period associated with the El Niño phenomenon. The longest and most severe case was the episode of September to November 1997 that occurred in conjunction with the extreme 1997/98 El ...

  15. The Neogene rise of the tropical Andes facilitated diversification of wax palms (Ceroxylon: Arecaceae) through geographical colonization and climatic niche separation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanín, María José; Kissling, W. Daniel; Bacon, Christine D.;

    2016-01-01

    out in the palm family (Arecaceae) due to its adaptation to cold, mountainous environments. Here, we reconstruct the biogeography and climatic preference of this lineage to test the hypothesis that Andean uplift allowed diversification by providing suitable habitats along climatic and elevational...

  16. Intrinsic variability in the eddying ocean at low frequency: climate-relevant fingerprints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penduff, T.; Gregorio, S.; Juza, M.; Barnier, B.; Dewar, W. K.; Molines, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Idealized studies (see the review by e.g. Dijkstra and Ghil, 2005) have shown that the nonlinear ocean circulation spontaneously generates low-frequency variability under constant atmospheric forcing. This phenomenon is chaotic and gets stronger with increasing Reynolds number. In the eddying regime, this intrinsic ocean variability has typical timescales of 1-10 years, and particularly affects the horizontal circulation. Nonlinear processes have been proposed to explain its generation, e.g. eddy-eddy interactions (Arbic et al. 2011), eddy PV fluxes or turbulent rectification (Spall 1996; Dewar 2003; Berloff et al 2007). Identifying the magnitude, spatial structure and fingerprints of this intrinsic chaotic variability in the real ocean would have important implications (e.g. for climate monitoring/hindcasting/forecasting, model assessment, etc). This can hardly be done from observations only since intrinsic and atmospherically-forced variabilities are entangled, but may be attempted from recent global, high-resolution, multi-decadal Ocean General Circulation Model simulations. In this presentation, we address the issues mentioned above by comparing a 327-year seasonally-forced simulation (no interannual forcing) performed with the Drakkar NEMO-based global 1/4° model, with its 50-year counterpart driven by a realistic forcing including the full range of timescales (i.e. with interannual forcing). Our seasonally-forced simulation reveals the imprint of the intrinsic interannual variability on various climate-relevant ocean variables, e.g. sea-level anomalies, sea-surface temperature, mixed layer depth, meridional overturning streamfunction. Comparing these intrinsic variances with their total counterpart (from the second simulation) then provides us with estimates of this chaotic component's fingerprint on climate-related variabilities. We show that intrinsic variances, which are negligeable in laminar IPCC-like (~2°) ocean models, may exceed their

  17. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  18. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  19. Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.; Cai, Wenju

    2016-06-01

    Complex interactions manifest between modes of tropical climate variability across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extends its influence on modes of variability in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which in turn feed back onto ENSO. Interactions between pairs of modes can alter their strength, periodicity, seasonality, and ultimately their predictability, yet little is known about the role that a third mode plays. Here we examine the interactions and relative influences between pairs of climate modes using ensembles of 100-year partially coupled experiments in an otherwise fully coupled general circulation model. In these experiments, the air-sea interaction over each tropical ocean basin, as well as pairs of ocean basins, is suppressed in turn. We find that Indian Ocean variability has a net damping effect on ENSO and Atlantic Ocean variability, and conversely they each promote Indian Ocean variability. The connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic is most clearly revealed in the absence of Indian Ocean variability. Our model runs suggest a weak damping influence by Atlantic variability on ENSO, and an enhancing influence by ENSO on Atlantic variability.

  20. Influence of seasonal weather and climate variability on crop yields in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2013-07-01

    The climatic sensitivity of four important agriculture crops (wheat, barley, oats, potatoes) in a northern temperate bioclimatic region is investigated using national-level yield data for 1963-2005. The climate variables include monthly and annual meteorological data, derived bioclimatic metrics, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Statistical analysis shows that significant relationships between yield and climate vary depending on the crop type and month but highlight the influence of precipitation (negative correlation) and sunshine duration (positive correlation) rather than temperature. Soil moisture deficit is shown to be a particular useful indicator of yield with drier summers providing the best yields for Scotland as a whole. It is also tentatively inferred that the sensitivity of these crops, particularly wheat and barley, to soil moisture deficits has increased in recent years. This suggests that improved crop yields are optimised for dry sunny years despite the continued prevalence of considerable inter-annual variability in seasonal weather.

  1. Potential impacts of climate variability on dengue hemorrhagic fever in Honduras, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano, L I; Sevilla, C; Reyes-García, S Z; Sierra, M; Kafati, R; Rodriguez-Morales, A J; Mattar, S

    2012-12-01

    Climate change and variability are affecting human health and disease direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one of those diseases that is strongly influenced by climate variability; however its study in Central America has been poorly approached. In this study, we assessed potential associations between macroclimatic and microclimatic variation and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in the main hospital of Honduras during 2010. In this year, 3,353 cases of DHF were reported in the Hospital Escuela, Tegucigalpa. Climatic periods marked a difference of 158% in the mean incidence of cases, from El Niño weeks (-99% of cases below the mean incidence) to La Niña months (+59% of cases above it) (pHonduras. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in the Central America region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as well as for prediction of dengue.

  2. Using traditional methods and indigenous technologies for coping with climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stigter, C.J.; Zheng Dawei,; Onyewotu, L.O.Z.; Mei Xurong,

    2005-01-01

    In agrometeorology and management of meteorology related natural resources, many traditional methods and indigenous technologies are still in use or being revived for managing low external inputs sustainable agriculture (LEISA) under conditions of climate variability. This paper starts with the intr

  3. Compound Vulnerabilities: The Intersection of Climate Variability and HIV/AIDS in Northwestern Tanzania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Githinji, V.; Crane, T.A.

    2014-01-01

    Drawing on ethnographic research conducted in Nsisha, a rural village located close to the shores of Lake Victoria in northwestern Tanzania, this article analyzes how climate change and variability intersect with other stressors that affect rural livelihoods, particularly HIV/AIDS. The analysis inte

  4. Late holocene linkages between decade-century scale climate variability and productivity at Lake Tanganyika, Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, A.S.; Lezzar, K.E.; Cole, J.; Dettman, D.; Ellis, G.S.; Gonneea, M.E.; Plisnier, P.D.; Langenberg, V.T.; Blaauw, M.; Zilifi, D.

    2006-01-01

    Microlaminated sediment cores from the Kalya slope region of Lake Tanganyika provide a near-annually resolved paleoclimate record between ~~2,840 and 1,420 cal. yr B.P. demonstrating strong linkages between climate variability and lacustrine productivity. Laminae couplets comprise dark, terrigenous-

  5. Forests and trees for social adaptation to climate variability and change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pramova, E.; Locatelli, B.; Djoudi, H.; Somorin, O.A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems provide important services that can help people adapt to climate variability and change. Recognizing this role of ecosystems, several international and nongovernmental organizations have promoted an ecosystem-based approach to adaptation. We review the scientific literature related to eco

  6. Comparing apples and oranges: the dependent variable problem in comparing and evaluating climate change adaptation policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dupuis, J.; Biesbroek, G.R.

    2013-01-01

    An increasing number of studies have compared climate change adaptation policies within and between different countries. In this paper we show that these comparative studies suffer from what is known as the ‘‘dependent variable problem’ – the indistinctness of the phenomenon that is being measured,

  7. Comparative hydrology across AmeriFlux sites: The variable roles of climate, vegetation, and groundwater

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thompson, S.E.; Harman, C.J.; Konings, A.G.; Sivapalan, M.; Neal, A.; Troch, P.A.

    2011-01-01

    Watersheds can be characterized as complex space‐time filters that transform incoming fluxes of energy, water, and nutrients into variable output signals. The behavior of these filters is driven by climate, geomorphology, and ecology and, accordingly, varies from site to site. We investigated this v

  8. STUDY OF NORTHERN WINTER ATMOSPHERIC ACTIVE CENTERS (AAC) CLIMATE BASE-STATE WITH ITS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EFFECTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The study of low-frequency oscillations is an important part of climate variability research. In view of insufficient efforts spent on multidecadal and ENSO-scale changes of the climate, the present paper undertakes study of > 30 year slowly-varying means, called climate base state (CBS), of northern winter AAC's in the past 100 years and more, with the CBS variability and its temporal evolution investigated, indicating that Aleutian low and Icelandic low (North Pacific high and North American high) experience maximum (minimum) variation in the CBS. The CBS exhibits two modes for its variation. The positive (negative) phase of mode I presents a weak (strong) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), a weaker (stronger) NPO (North Pacific Oscillation), a robust (feeble) Siberian high and a quite weak (vigorous) Aleutian low whilst the positive (negative) phase of mode II reveals a feeble (strong) Aleutian low and a weak (robust) Siberian high. Also, the research shows that the recent CBS of northern circulations is in a remarkably negative phase of mode I and a noticeably positive phase of mode II, viz., in the background of slowly-varying circulations of an exceptionally weak Siberian high, an extremely vigorous Aleutian low and an intense NAO. The background field is likely to persist for a matter of 30 years such that northern winter temperature is expected to be in such a warm situation for a long period to follow.

  9. Variability of the Atlantic Forest based on the EVI index and climate variables in Cunha-SP, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marianna Fernandes Santana

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the variability of the Atlantic Forest in the municipality of Cunha-SP, Brazil, based EVI index (Enhanced Vegetation Index and climatic variables (air temperature and rainfall. Images of MOD13Q1 product from MODIS sensor, which represent the index EVI were used. The descriptive statistics and multiple were applied to climate variables and EVI for the cycle 2007/2008 (strong La Niña event. The lowest average values of the rain were found for 2008 (171.60 mm, while the highest average rainfall was found for 2007 (187.02 mm. The vegetation behaved in a manner contrary, where the lowest average EVI index was found for 2007 (0.38, already 2008 had the highest rate (0.46, respectively. The coefficient of determination between the rainfall and the EVI in 2007 (R² = 0.43 higher than in 2008 (R² = 0.12, followed by correlation indexes in 2007 (r = 0.65 and 2008 (r = 0.34. However, both indexes were low, except correlation index in 2007. In the multiple regression analysis for the year 2007 obtained 87% correlation, while in 2008 only 27%. There is no correlation between vegetation and air temperature.

  10. Governmental responses and smallholders' adaptations to climatic variability in southeastern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardero Jimenez, Silvia Sofia; Schmook, Birgit; Christman, Zachary; Radel, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    Maize agriculture comprises a third of the area under cultivation in Mexico (75 million hectares), with only a quarter of this crop irrigated artificially. With the great dependence of the country's dominant crop on natural rainfall, there is potential for major losses in maize production due to climatic events, such as irregular rainfalls, droughts, and hurricanes. In 2012, droughts alone caused losses of 16 billion Mexican pesos nationwide in the agricultural sector. Over the last decades, political and economic pressures in the agrarian sector have further stressed Mexican smallholder farmers, as they have to respond to a combination of economic and climatic factors. This interdisciplinary study first documents local climate changes and then explores smallholder farmers' adaptations and governmental policy responses to the variable and changing precipitation and temperature patterns across southeastern Mexico. To assess local climate changes, we analyzed precipitation and temperature data from the land-based weather station network of CONAGUA for the 1973-2012 period. Precipitation anomalies were estimated to evaluate the annual and seasonal stability, deficit, or surplus; and linear regressions used to evaluate precipitation and temperature trends. Climatic analysis demonstrated, 1) a considerable increase in temperature across the study area; 2) a decline in precipitation across a sub-section; 3) increased drought frequency; and 4) an increase in negative anomalies in recent years. We then combine findings from our previous research (Mardero et al. 2014 and Mardero et al. 2015), based on interviews with 150 swidden maize smallholders in 10 communities, to new data from in-depth interviews with managers of local and regional agricultural associations and with members of governmental institutions in charge of climate policy implementation (n=19). The new data allow us to explore governmental responses to climatic variability in the agricultural sector in direct

  11. Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: An analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriver, Ryan L.; Forest, Chris E.; Keller, Klaus

    2015-07-01

    The uncertainties surrounding the initial conditions in Earth system models can considerably influence interpretations about climate trends and variability. Here we present results from a new climate change ensemble experiment using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to analyze the effect of internal variability on regional climate variables that are relevant for decision making. Each simulation is initialized from a unique and dynamically consistent model state sampled from a ~10,000 year fully coupled equilibrium simulation, which captures the internal unforced variability of the coupled Earth system. We find that internal variability has a sizeable contribution to the modeled ranges of temperature and precipitation. The effects increase for more localized regions. The ensemble exhibits skill in simulating key regional climate processes relevant to decision makers, such as seasonal temperature variability and extremes. The presented ensemble framework and results can provide useful resources for uncertainty quantification, integrated assessment, and climate risk management.

  12. The GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV data record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coldewey-Egbers

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We present the new GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV data record which has been created within the framework of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI. Total ozone column observations – based on the GOME-type Direct Fitting version 3 algorithm – from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY, and GOME-2 have been combined into one homogeneous time series, thereby taking advantage of the high inter-sensor consistency. The data record spans the 15-year period from March 1996 to June 2011 and it contains global monthly mean total ozone columns on a 1° × 1° grid. Geophysical ground-based validation using Brewer, Dobson, and UV-visible instruments has shown that the GTO-ECV level 3 data record is of the same high quality as the equivalent individual level 2 data products that constitute it. Both absolute agreement and long-term stability are excellent with respect to the ground-based data, for almost all latitudes apart from a few outliers which are mostly due to sampling differences between the level 2 and level 3 data. We conclude that the GTO-ECV data record is valuable for a variety of climate applications such as the long-term monitoring of the past evolution of the ozone layer, trend analysis and the evaluation of Chemistry–Climate Model simulations.

  13. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

    2012-01-01

    Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  14. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  15. Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conde, C.; Ferrer, R. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Circuito Exterior, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: e-mail: conde@servidor.unam.mx; Orozco, S. [Escuela de Agrobiologia, Universidad Autonoma de Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' involvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. [Spanish] Los eventos climaticos extremos (como los asociados con eventos fuertes de El Nino) afectan de manera importante a la agricultura mexicana, ya que mas del sesenta por ciento de ella es de temporal, esto es, depende fundamentalmente de una buena temporada de lluvias para producir. El cultivo que se siembra es basicamente maiz, que todavia es la principal fuente de nutrientes para

  16. Climatic Zonation and the Related Variables, Emphasizing Aerosol Parameters in Hamedan, Lorestan, and Markazi Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Lashanizand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the occurrence of dust storms threatens both financial and environmental resources. During recent years, atmosphere of the western and southwestern regions of Iran has been occupied by these storms. This research is aimed to provide climatic zoning for Lorestan, Hamedan, and Markazi provinces with an emphasis on the variables related to a climatic element of wind was done. For this purpose, at first, a database of climatic factors (temperature, humidity, precipitation, sundial, etc. was developed for the statistical period 1991-2010 by Excel and SPSS software packages. The principal components statistical method was utilized to reduce the dimension of the data matrix and, from among the resulting components, 6 components were selected as the principal components to determine the climatic zoning in the western region of Iran using variance and scree plot. The iso-cluster method in ArcGIS software was used for the climatic zoning of the considered area. Results showed that the studied area, during the days with dust in the air, was composed of 7 climatic zones, with an emphasis on the parameters associated with wind. Finally, map of the climatic zones was generated for the considered area in ArcGIS software.

  17. Sensitivity of annual and seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration to principal climatic variables

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    G T Patle; D K Singh

    2015-06-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) represents the evaporative demand of the atmosphere and depends on climatic parameters such as radiation, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Relative role of climatic parameter of ET0 varies from one climate to another and within the climate, and depends on the location and time. Sensitivity analysis was conducted and sensitivity coefficients were determined to evaluate the impact of principal climatic parameters on ET0 in Karnal district of India. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1981 to 2011 were estimated from FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation using the daily climate data collected from Central Soil Salinity Research Institute, Karnal. Results showed that seasonal and annual ET0 were most sensitive to maximum temperature followed by sunshine hours. However, wind speed, relative humidity, and minimum temperature had varying effect on mean ET0. After maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to wind speed followed by relative humidity and minimum temperature in summer. In monsoon, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to minimum temperature followed by relative humidity and wind speed. However, in winter, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to relative humidity followed by wind speed and minimum temperature. The study suggests that the climate variability would affect reference ET0; however, its impact on ET0 would be different for different parameters.

  18. Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

    2012-04-01

    As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

  19. Climate Variability is Influencing Agricultural Expansion and Output in a Key Agricultural Region of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spera, S. A.; Cohn, A.; VanWey, L.; Mustard, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last decade, the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso has both expanded and intensified its agricultural production to become the country's leading producer of soy, corn, and cotton. Yet this increase in agricultural production may be threatened due to changes in the region's climate stemming from deforestation caused by the agricultural expansion itself. The sensitivity of Mato Grosso's agriculture to climate variability has important implications for both climate change mitigation and climate adaptation. The vast bulk of research on the drivers of land use change in the region has examined economic and institutional drivers. Leveraging a novel remote sensing-derived dataset classifying shifts between single (cultivating one commercial crop per growing season) and double cropping (cultivating two commercial crops per growing season), we investigated the influence of climate variability on land use change during the period 2000 to 2011. Over the past decade, over half of Mato Grosso's farm area transitioned from single cropping to double cropping. We used regression analysis (controlling for space and time fixed effects) to show monthly rainfall, monthly temperature, agricultural commodity prices, and agricultural revenue to be the main drivers of adoption of double cropping and reversion to single cropping in the region. The influence of climate varies as much as five orders of magnitude across these outcomes, with both temperature and precipitation exhibiting the largest climatic influence on the transition from single to double cropping. Temperature consistently proves to be more important, explaining three times more of the variance than precipitation for each outcome. Months at the beginning of a given first crop season, the end of that first crop season, and middle of the subsequent second crop season are particularly important for planting decisions in the subsequent growing year. Fitting our land transition models using remote-sensing derived

  20. Thermal variability alters the impact of climate warming on consumer-resource systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fey, Samuel B; Vasseur, David A

    2016-07-01

    Thermal variation through space and time are prominent features of ecosystems that influence processes at multiple levels of biological organization. Yet, it remains unclear how populations embedded within biological communities will respond to climate warming in thermally variable environments, particularly as climate change alters existing patterns of thermal spatial and temporal variability. As environmental temperatures increase above historical ranges, organisms may increasingly rely on extreme habitats to effectively thermoregulate. Such locations desirable in their thermal attributes (e.g., thermal refugia) are often suboptimal for resource acquisition (e.g., underground tunnels). Thus, via the expected increase in both mean temperatures and diel thermal variation, climate warming may heighten the trade-off for consumers between behaviors maximizing thermal performance and those maximizing resource acquisition. Here, we integrate behavioral, physiological, and trophic ecology to provide a general framework for understanding how temporal thermal variation, mediated by access to a thermal refugium, alters the response of consumer-resource systems to warming. We use this framework to predict how temporal variation and access to thermal refugia affect the persistence of consumers and resources during climate warming, how the quality of thermal refugia impact consumer-resource systems, and how consumer-resource systems with fast vs. slow ecological dynamics respond to warming. Our results show that the spatial thermal variability provided by refugia can elevate consumer biomass at warmer temperatures despite reducing the fraction of time consumers spend foraging, that temporal variability detrimentally impacts consumers at high environmental temperatures, and that consumer-resource systems with fast ecological dynamics are most vulnerable to climate warming. Thus, incorporating both estimates of thermal variability and species interactions may be necessary to

  1. Potential impact of climatic variability on the epidemiology of dengue in Risaralda, Colombia, 2010-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero-Herrera, Liseth L; Ramírez-Jaramillo, Valeria; Bernal-Gutiérrez, Sergio; Cárdenas-Giraldo, Erika V; Guerrero-Matituy, Edwin A; Molina-Delgado, Anderson H; Montoya-Arias, Cindy P; Rico-Gallego, Jhon A; Herrera-Giraldo, Albert C; Botero-Franco, Shirley; Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

    2015-01-01

    Dengue continues to be the most important viral vector-borne disease in the world, particularly in Asia and Latin America, and is significantly affected by climate variability. The influence of climate in an endemic region of Colombia, from 2010 to 2011, was assessed. Epidemiological surveillance data (weekly cases) were collected, and incidence rates were calculated. Poisson regression models were used to assess the influence of the macroclimatic variable ONI (Oscillation Niño Index) and the microclimatic variable pluviometry (mm of rain for Risaralda) on the dengue incidence rate, adjusting by year and week. During the study period, 13,650 cases were reported. In 2010, the rates ranged from 8.6 cases/100,000 pop. up to a peak of 75.3 cases/100,000 pop. for a cumulative rate of 456.2 cases/100,000 pop. in that week. The climate variability in 2010 was higher (ONI 1.6, El Niño to -1.5, La Niña) than in 2011 (ONI -1.4, La Niña to -0.2, Neutral). The mean pluviometry was 248.45mm (min 135.9-max 432.84). During El Niño, cases were significantly higher (mean 433.81) than during the climate neutral period (142.48) and during the La Niña (52.80) phases (ANOVA F=66.59; pdengue incidence rate, after adjusting by year and week (pdengue in Risaralda. This association with climate change and variability should be considered in the elements influencing disease epidemiology. In addition, predictive models should be developed further with more available data from disease surveillance.

  2. EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph H. Hartman

    1999-09-01

    This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern

  3. Spectral Kernel Approach to Study Radiative Response of Climate Variables and Interannual Variability of Reflected Solar Spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Zhonghai; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Loukachine, Constantin; Charlock, Thomas P.; Young, David; Noeel, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    The radiative kernel approach provides a simple way to separate the radiative response to different climate parameters and to decompose the feedback into radiative and climate response components. Using CERES/MODIS/Geostationary data, we calculated and analyzed the solar spectral reflectance kernels for various climate parameters on zonal, regional, and global spatial scales. The kernel linearity is tested. Errors in the kernel due to nonlinearity can vary strongly depending on climate parameter, wavelength, surface, and solar elevation; they are large in some absorption bands for some parameters but are negligible in most conditions. The spectral kernels are used to calculate the radiative responses to different climate parameter changes in different latitudes. The results show that the radiative response in high latitudes is sensitive to the coverage of snow and sea ice. The radiative response in low latitudes is contributed mainly by cloud property changes, especially cloud fraction and optical depth. The large cloud height effect is confined to absorption bands, while the cloud particle size effect is found mainly in the near infrared. The kernel approach, which is based on calculations using CERES retrievals, is then tested by direct comparison with spectral measurements from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) (a different instrument on a different spacecraft). The monthly mean interannual variability of spectral reflectance based on the kernel technique is consistent with satellite observations over the ocean, but not over land, where both model and data have large uncertainty. RMS errors in kernel ]derived monthly global mean reflectance over the ocean compared to observations are about 0.001, and the sampling error is likely a major component.

  4. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  5. Decadal to millennial time scale climate variability in the Central Mediterranean during the Holocene: a reconstruction based on geochemical proxies from high resolution sedimentary records

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goudeau, M.S.

    2014-01-01

    To assess potential anthropogenic contributions to future climate change it is necessary to understand natural climate variability. This can be achieved by studying climate variability during the Holocene, when similar basic climate boundary conditions persisted as today. During this period climate

  6. The Contribution of Internal and Model Variabilities to the Uncertainty in CMIP5 Decadal Climate Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Strobach, Ehud

    2015-01-01

    Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal experiments, we quantified the total uncertainty associated with these predictions and the relative importance of each source. Annual and monthly averages of the surface temperature and wind components were considered. We show that different definitions of the anomaly results in different conclusions regarding the variance of the ensemble members. However, some features of the uncertainty are common to all the measures we considered. We found that over decadal time scales, there is no considerable increase in the uncertainty with time. The model variability is more sensitive to the annual cycle than the internal variability. This, in turn, results in a maximal uncertainty during the winter in the northern hemisphere. The uncertainty of the surface temperature prediction is dom...

  7. Characterizing climate predictability and model response variability from multiple initial condition and multi-model ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Devashish

    2016-01-01

    Climate models are thought to solve boundary value problems unlike numerical weather prediction, which is an initial value problem. However, climate internal variability (CIV) is thought to be relatively important at near-term (0-30 year) prediction horizons, especially at higher resolutions. The recent availability of significant numbers of multi-model (MME) and multi-initial condition (MICE) ensembles allows for the first time a direct sensitivity analysis of CIV versus model response variability (MRV). Understanding the relative agreement and variability of MME and MICE ensembles for multiple regions, resolutions, and projection horizons is critical for focusing model improvements, diagnostics, and prognosis, as well as impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. Here we find that CIV (MICE agreement) is lower (higher) than MRV (MME agreement) across all spatial resolutions and projection time horizons for both temperature and precipitation. However, CIV dominates MRV over higher latitudes generally an...

  8. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale climate variables and downscaling models – A case study

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Azadeh Ahmadi; Ali Moridi; Elham Kakaei Lafdani; Ghasem Kianpisheh

    2014-10-01

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.

  9. Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future

  10. Interannual to Multidecadal Climate Variability and Groundwater Resources of the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate variability and change have important implications for groundwater recharge, discharge, contaminant transport, and resource sustainability. Reliable predictions of groundwater sustainability due to climate change will require improved understanding of the effects of global scale atmosphere-ocean climate oscillations on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Climate variability on these timescales partially controls precipitation, air temperature, drought, evapotranspiration, streamflow, recharge, and mobilization of subsurface-chemical reservoirs. Climate variability can augment or diminish human stresses on groundwater, and the responses in storage can be dramatic when different climate cycles lie coincident in a positive or negative phase of variability. Thus, understanding climate variability has particular relevance for management decisions during drought and for water resources close to the limits of sustainability. Major findings will be presented from a national scale study of climate variability on recharge rates and groundwater levels, and will highlight regional aquifers of the western United States, including the Basin and Range (700,000 km2), Central Valley (52,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and Mississippi Embayment (181,000 km2) aquifer systems. Using singular spectrum analysis, the groundwater pumping signal was removed and natural variations were identified in groundwater levels as partially coincident with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-80 year cycle). The PDO was the most significant contributor to recharge and groundwater level fluctuations in most aquifers. In the Central Valley and the Basin and Range, the PDO contributes to the greatest amount of variance (ranging from 13.6-83%) in all precipitation and groundwater level time series, with moderate to strong

  11. Atlantic near-term climate variability and the role of a resolved Gulf Stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, Leo; Kirtman, Ben P.

    2016-04-01

    There is a continually increasing demand for near-term (i.e., lead times up to a couple of decades) climate information. This demand is partly driven by the need to have robust forecasts and is partly driven by the need to assess how much of the ongoing climate change is due to natural variability and how much is due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases or other external factors. Here we discuss results from a set of state-of-the-art climate model experiments in comparison with observational estimates that show that an assessment of predictability requires models that capture the variability of major oceanic fronts, which are, at best, poorly resolved and may even be absent in the near-term prediction of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change class models. This is the first time that air-sea interactions associated with resolved Gulf Stream sea surface temperature have been identified in the context of a state-of-the-art global coupled climate model with inferred near-term predictability.

  12. The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vallis, Geoffrey K.

    2015-02-01

    The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.

  13. Low-frequency Pliocene climate variability in the eastern Nordic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risebrobakken, Bjørg; Andersson, Carin; De Schepper, Stijn; McClymont, Erin L.

    2016-09-01

    The Pliocene (5.3-2.6 Ma) is often described as a relatively stable climatic period, with warm temperatures characterizing high latitudes. New suborbital resolved stable isotope records from Ocean Drilling Program Hole 642B in the eastern Nordic Seas document that the Pliocene was not a stable period characterized by one climate. Rather, seven distinct climate phases, each lasting between 150,000 and 400,000 years, are identified and characterized in the time interval 5.1-3.1 Ma. Four of the transitions between the defined climate phases occurred close to an eccentricity minimum and a minimum in amplitude of change for Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, while two occurred around an eccentricity maximum and a maximum in amplitude in insolation change. Hence, a low-frequency response of the Nordic Seas to insolation forcing is indicated. In addition, paleogeographic and related paleoceanographic changes, expansion of the Arctic sea ice cover, and onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation were important factors behind the evolving Pliocene low-frequency variability in the eastern Nordic Seas. It is likely that the identified climate phases and transitions are important beyond the Nordic Seas, due to their association with changes to both insolation and paleogeography. However, a strong and variable degree of diagenetic calcite overgrowth is documented for the planktic foraminifera, especially influencing the planktic δ18O results; the absolute values and amplitude of change cannot be taken at face value.

  14. Impacts of Climate Variability on Lake Evaporation: Lessons Learned From Nearly Two Decades of Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenters, J. D.; Holman, K. D.

    2006-12-01

    Variations in lake evaporation have a significant impact on the energy and water budgets of lakes. Understanding these variations and the role of climate is important for water resource management as well as predicting future changes in lake hydrology as a result of climate change. However, accurate monitoring of evaporation from water bodies requires significant investments of time and resources to support energy budget and/or eddy covariance instrumentation, maintenance, and data processing. Thus, long-term monitoring studies of this type are rare, despite their importance for water resource management. In this study, we present results from an updated 17-year energy budget analysis of Sparkling Lake in northern Wisconsin (USA). Earlier results from this study have shown that lake evaporation varies significantly, on a wide variety of timescales, and that the climatic drivers of evaporation depend strongly on the timescale of interest. A recent extension of the original 10-year dataset (1989-1998) has now provided us with a longer timeseries with which to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on lake evaporation. We highlight some of the results of this recent analysis, including the relative roles of radiation, temperature, humidity, and wind speed in modulating the rate of evaporation from the lake surface. Particular attention is given to the interannual variability and long-term trends that are found to arise from the 17-year study, as well as the implications for water resources under future climate change.

  15. Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Martín-Puertas

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

  16. Archival explorations of climate variability and social vulnerability in colonial Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Endfield, G.H. [School of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG 7 2RD (United Kingdom)

    2007-07-15

    Unpublished archival documentary sources are used to explore the vulnerability to - and implications of - climatic variability and extreme weather events in colonial Mexico. Attention focuses on three regions covering a variety of environmental, social, economic, and political contexts and histories and located at key points along a north-south rainfall gradient: Chihuahua in the arid north, Oaxaca in the wetter south and Guanajuato located in the central Mexican highlands. A number of themes are considered. First, the significance of successive, prolonged, or combined climate events as triggers of agrarian crisis. Second, a case study demonstrating the national and regional impacts of a particularly devastating climate induced famine, culminating with the so-called 'Year of Hunger' between 1785 and 1786, is presented. The way in which social networks and community engagement were rallied as a means of fortifying social resilience to this and other crises will be highlighted. Third, the impacts of selected historical flood events are explored in order to highlight how the degree of impact of a flood was a function of public expectation, preparedness and also the particular socio-economic and environmental context in which the event took place. An overview of the spatial and temporal variations in vulnerability and resilience to climatic variability and extreme weather events in colonial Mexico is then provided, considering those recorded events that could potentially relate to broader scale, possibly global, climate changes.

  17. From water to bioethanol: The impact of climate variability on the water footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalla Marta, Anna; Mancini, Marco; Natali, Francesca; Orlando, Francesca; Orlandini, Simone

    2012-06-01

    SummaryDuring recent years, the opportunity to use energy crops for the production of biofuels aroused many interest by virtue of the potential reduction of green house gasses emissions associated to their large-scale use. Nevertheless, many studies highlight that the substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels from energy crops can lead up to serious problems related to the pressure on water resources. The present research had the aim to investigate the relations existing between biofuels production and the pressure on water resources, and how these relations are affected by climate variability. To this aim, the water footprint of maize cultivation in Tuscany (central Italy) was computed and its trend was analyzed during the last 55 years in relation to climate variability with particular attention to precipitations. The results demonstrated that the WF was affected by climate variability mainly through the effect of climate on the crop cycle. The total WF decreased over time but an increase of the blue component was found due to the change in precipitation patterns and to the rise of temperatures. Concerning the gray WF, despite a decrease in the last 55-years period mainly due to precipitation decrease, there was a reduction in N uptake by the crop and an accumulation of nitrate into the soil.

  18. Climate variability, weather and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand: time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aparna Lal

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand. METHODS: Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA models. RESULTS: No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β =  0.130, SE =  0.060, p <0.01 and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI two months previously (β =  -0.008, SE =  0.004, p <0.05. By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β  = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001 of the current month and SOI of the current (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050 and previous month (β  = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05. Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher. CONCLUSIONS: Although spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

  19. Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feyrer, Frederick V.; Cloern, James E.; Brown, Larry R.; Fish, Maxfield; Hieb, Kathryn; Baxter, Randall

    2015-01-01

    Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land–sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean–atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980–2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0–1), oligohaline (salinity = 1–12), mesohaline (salinity = 6–19), polyhaline (salinity = 19–28), and euhaline (salinity = 29–32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats.

  20. In search of a temporal niche: Environmental factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hut, Roelof A.; Kronfeld-Schor, Noga; van der Vinne, Vincent; De la Iglesia, Horacio

    2012-01-01

    Time as an ecological niche variable or "temporal niche" can be defined in the context of the most prominent environmental cycles, including the tidal cycle, the lunar day and month, the solar day, and the earth year. For the current review, we focus on the 24-h domain generated through the earth's

  1. Universal Spectrum for Natural Variability of Climate Implications for Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Pethkar, J S

    2001-01-01

    The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity. Self-similarity or scale invariance implies long-range spatiotemporal correlations and is manifested in atmospheric flows as the fractal geometry to spatial pattern concomitant with inverse power-law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations. Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures of self-organized criticality. Standard meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed self-organized criticality. Numerical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are subject to deterministic chaos and give unrealistic solutions. Deterministic chaos is a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative computations. Round-off error of finite precision computations doubles on an...

  2. Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.

    2015-09-01

    While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water and carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.

  3. Sustainability of Smart Cities under Climate Variability and Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, R.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    India has experienced a rapid urbanization during the past few decades. On the other hand, many parts of the country witnessed significant changes in mean and extreme climate related to precipitation and temperature. Here we analysed urban residence using the remotely sensed data considering the susceptibility of Indian cities to droughts and heat waves. We selected recently announced 100 urban areas that are planned to be developed as smart cities in future. Gridded precipitation data were used to compute SPEI values for frequency and ascertain the extent of droughts in the cities. The heat wave analysis was done in two phases. First phase included analysis using Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) to determine the intensity of such extreme events. In the second phase, Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect across different ecological configuration was studied for the cities. Land Surface Temperature (LST), urban extent map from MODIS and land-cover maps were used to study the UHI effect. For this, the urban extents were divided into urban core and sub-urban zones based on built up regions in the cities. The urban to rural temperature difference is analysed considering the ecological configuration in the region. The selected cities were categorised based on the biome features surrounding them. The results suggest aggravated condition in the urban space in India with reference to extreme events. For instance, extreme heat waves have substantially increased in India during the last few decades. In many urban areas, the UHI effect contributed a significant warming due to increased urbanization. We estimated projected changes in droughts and heat waves in the selected urban areas using the dynamically downscaled data from the region climate models. Our results suggest that a majority of urban areas are projected to face an elevated risk of temperature related extremes and issues of water sustainability in the coming decades.

  4. Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotti, Annarita [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy); Dell' Aquila, Alessandro [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy)

    2012-03-15

    We analyze decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region using observational datasets over the period 1850-2009 and a regional climate model simulation for the period 1960-2000, focusing in particular on the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Our results show that decadal variability associated with the winter and summer manifestations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and SNAO respectively) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly contribute to decadal climate anomalies over the Mediterranean region during these seasons. Over 30% of decadal variance in DJF and JJA precipitation in parts of the Mediterranean region can be explained by NAO and SNAO variability respectively. During JJA, the AMO explains over 30% of regional surface air temperature anomalies and Mediterranean Sea surface temperature anomalies, with significant influence also in the transition seasons. In DJF, only Mediterranean SST still significantly correlates with the AMO while regional surface air temperature does not. Also, there is no significant NAO influence on decadal Mediterranean surface air temperature anomalies during this season. A simulation with the PROTHEUS regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model is utilized to investigate processes determining regional decadal changes during the 1960-2000 period, specifically the wetter and cooler 1971-1985 conditions versus the drier and warmer 1986-2000 conditions. The simulation successfully captures the essence of observed decadal changes. Model set-up suggests that AMO variability is transmitted to the Mediterranean/European region and the Mediterranean Sea via atmospheric processes. Regional feedbacks involving cloud cover and soil moisture changes also appear to contribute to observed changes. If confirmed, the linkage between Mediterranean temperatures and the AMO may imply a certain degree of regional decadal climate predictability. The AMO and other decadal influences outlined here should be

  5. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-04-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located in the northwest of China. This is an important watershed of the Shaanxi province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million people. The results showed that the maximum value of the moisture index (E0/P) was 1.91 and appeared in 1991-2000, and the decreased speed of streamflow was higher since 1990 compared with 1960-1990. The average annual streamflow from 1990 to 2010 was reduced by 26.96 % compared with the multiyear average value (from 1960 to 2010). The estimates of the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decreases from the hydrological models were similar to those from the elasticity-based method. The maximum contribution value of human activities was 99 % when averaged over the three methods, and appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal. Climate variability made the greatest contribution to streamflow reduction in 1991-2000, the values of which was 40.4 %. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occur in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty) and elasticity-based method (model parameter) in climate change impact studies.

  6. Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fohlmeister

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Holocene climate was characterised by variability on multi-centennial to multi-decadal time scales. In central Europe, these fluctuations were most pronounced during winter. Here we present a record of past winter climate variability for the last 10.8 ka based on four speleothems from Bunker Cave, western Germany. Due to its central European location, the cave site is particularly well suited to record changes in precipitation and temperature in response to changes in the North Atlantic realm. We present high-resolution records of δ18O, δ13C values and Mg/Ca ratios. Changes in the Mg/Ca ratio are attributed to past meteoric precipitation variability. The stable C isotope composition of the speleothems most likely reflects changes in vegetation and precipitation, and variations in the δ18O signal are interpreted as variations in meteoric precipitation and temperature. We found cold and dry periods between 8 and 7 ka, 6.5 and 5.5 ka, 4 and 3 ka as well as between 0.7 and 0.2 ka. The proxy signals in the Bunker Cave stalagmites compare well with other isotope records and, thus, seem representative for central European Holocene climate variability. The prominent 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age cold events are both recorded in the Bunker Cave record. However, these events show a contrasting relationship between climate and δ18O, which is explained by different causes underlying the two climate anomalies. Whereas the Little Ice Age is attributed to a pronounced negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the 8.2 ka event was triggered by cooler conditions in the North Atlantic due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation.

  7. Inferring climate variability from nonlinear proxies: application to palaeo-ENSO studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2016-01-01

    Inferring climate from palaeodata frequently assumes a direct, linear relationship between the two, which is seldom met in practice. Here we simulate an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with surface temperature, and we demonstrate the pitfalls of ignoring nonlinearities in the proxy-climate relationship. We explore three approaches to using this idealized proxy to infer past climate: (i) methods commonly used in the palaeoclimate literature, without consideration of nonlinearities; (ii) the same methods, after empirically transforming the data to normality to account for nonlinearities; and (iii) using a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting nonlinearity often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals and leads to reconstructions with poorly quantified uncertainties. In contrast, explicit recognition of the nonlinear relationship, using either a mechanistic model or an empirical transform, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations, with more accurate uncertainty quantification. We apply these insights to two palaeoclimate settings. Accounting for nonlinearities in the classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha leads to quantitative departures from the results of the original study, and it markedly affects the detection of variance changes over time. A comparison with the Lake Challa record, also a nonlinear proxy for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, illustrates how inter-proxy comparisons may be altered when accounting for nonlinearity. The results hold implications for how univariate, nonlinear recorders of normally distributed climate variables are interpreted, compared to other proxy records, and incorporated into multiproxy reconstructions.

  8. Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  9. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penaluna, Brooke E; Dunham, Jason B; Railsback, Steve F; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  10. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brooke E Penaluna

    Full Text Available Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011, and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year, but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

  11. Adaptation of rainfed agriculture to climatic variability in the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogé, P.; Friedman, A. R.; Astier, M.; Altieri, M.

    2015-12-01

    The traditional management systems of the Mixteca Alta Region of Oaxaca, Mexico offer historical lessons about resilience to climatic variability. We interviewed small farmers to inquire about the dynamics of abandonment and persistence of a traditional management systems. We interpret farmers' narratives from a perspective of general agroecological resilience. In addition, we facilitated workshops in small farmers described their adaptation to past climate challenges and identified 14 indicators that they subsequently used to evaluate the condition of their agroecosystems. The most recent years presented increasingly extreme climatic and socioeconomic hardships: increased temperatures, delayed rainy seasons, reduced capacity of soils to retain soil moisture, changing cultural norms, and reduced rural labor. Farmers reported that their cropping systems were changing for multiple reasons: more drought, later rainfall onset, decreased rural labor, and introduced labor-saving technologies. Examination of climate data found that farmers' climate narratives were largely consistent with the observational record. There have been increases in temperature and rainfall intensity, and an increase in rainfall seasonality that may be perceived as later rainfall onset. Farmers ranked landscape-scale indicators as more marginal than farmer management or soil quality indicators. From this analysis, farmers proposed strategies to improve the ability of their agroecosystems to cope with climatic variability. Notably, they recognized that social organizing and education are required for landscape-level indicators to be improved. Transformative change is required to develop novel cropping systems and complementary activities to agriculture that will allow for farming to be sustained in the face of these challenges. Climate change adaptation by small farmers involves much more than just a set of farming practices, but also community action to tackle collective problems.

  12. Optimum Fisheries Management under Climate Variability: Evidence from Artisanal Marine Fishing in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wisdom Akpalu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In most developing coastal countries, the artisanal fisheries sector is managed as a common pool resource. As a result, such fisheries are overcapitalized and overfished. In Ghana, in addition to anthropogenic factors, there is evidence of rising coastal temperature and its variance, which could impact the environmental carrying capacity of the fish stock. This study investigates the effect of climate variation on biophysical parameters and yields. Our results indicate that the rising temperature is decreasing the carrying capacity. As a result, an optimum tax on harvest must reflect climate variability, as well as the congestion externality.

  13. Climate variability and environmental stress in the Sudan-Sahel zone of West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Maiga, Abdou;

    2012-01-01

    Environmental change in the Sudan-Sahel region of West Africa (SSWA) has been much debated since the droughts of the 1970s. In this article we assess climate variability and environmental stress in the region. Households in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria were asked about climatic...... changes and their perceptions were compared across north–south and west–east rainfall gradients. More than 80% of all households found that rainfall had decreased, especially in the wettest areas. Increases in wind speeds and temperature were perceived by an overall 60–80% of households. Contrary...

  14. Impacts of Climate Change/Variability and Human Activities on Contemporary Vegetation Productivity across Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugbaje, S. U.; Odeh, I. A.; Bishop, T.

    2015-12-01

    Vegetation productivity is increasingly being impacted upon by climate change/variability and anthropogenic activities, especially in developing countries, where many livelihoods depend on the natural resource base. Despite these impacts, the individual and combined roles of climate and anthropogenic factors on vegetation dynamics have rarely been quantified in many ecosystems and regions of the world. This paper analyzes recent trend in vegetation productivity across Africa and quantified the relative roles of climate change/variability and human activities in driving this trend over 2000-2014 using net primary productivity (NPP) as an indicator. The relative roles of these factors to vegetation productivity change were quantified by comparing the trend slope (pchange in interannual actual NPP (NPPA), potential NPP (NPPP), and human appropriated NPP (NPPH). NPP significantly increased across Africa relative to NPP decline, though the extent of NPP decline is also quite appreciable. Whereas estimated NPP declined by 207 Tg C over 140 X 104 km of land area, vegetation productivity was estimated to improve by 1415 Tg C over 786 X 104 km of land area. NPP improvement is largely concentrated in equatorial and northern hemispheric Africa, while subequatorial Africa exhibited the most NPP decline. Generally, anthropogenic activities dominated climate change/variability in improving or degrading vegetation productivity. Of the estimated total NPP gained over the study period, 32.6, 8.8, and 58.6 % were due to individual human, climate and combined impacts respectively. The contributions of the factors to NPP decline in the same order are: 50.7, 16.0 and 33.3 %. The Central Africa region is where human activities had the greatest impact on NPP improvement; whereas the Sahel and the coastlines of west northern Africa are areas associated with the greatest influence of climate-driven NPP gain. Areas with humans dominating NPP degradation include eastern Angola, western

  15. Spatiotemporal variability of the Black Sea wave climate in the last 37 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divinsky, B. V.; Kosyan, R. D.

    2017-03-01

    The main objective of our work is analysis of spatiotemporal variability of the Black Sea wave climate from 1979 to 2015. The analysis is based on mathematical modeling using the modern DHI MIKE 21 SW spectral wave model. Verification of the wave model was performed using numerous data of instrumental observations of wind wave parameters in the Black and Azov seas. Our studies revealed climatic trends in the spatial distribution of wave energy and made possible determining the main frequencies of wave energy fluctuations.

  16. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  17. Iranian speleothems: Investigating Quaternary climate variability in semi-arid Western Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolin, Stacy; Morgan, Jacob; Peckover, Emily; Walker, Richard; Henderson, Gideon; Rowe, Peter; Andrews, Julian; Ersek, Vasile; Sloan, Alastair; Talebian, Morteza; Fattahi, Morteza; Nezamdoust, Javad

    2016-04-01

    Rapid population growth and limited water supply has highlighted the need for vigorous water resource management practices in the semi-arid regions of Western Asia. One significant unknown in this discussion is the future change in rainfall amount due to the consequential effects of today's greenhouse gas forcing on the regional climate system. Currently, there is little paleoclimate proxy data in Western Asia to extend climate records beyond the limits of the instrumental period, leaving scant evidence to investigate the system's response to various climate forcings on different timescales. Here we present a synthesis of speleothem climate records across northern Iran, from the wetter climate of the Alborz and Zagros mountain ranges to the dry northeast, in order to investigate the magnitude of past climate variability and the forcings responsible. The stalagmites collected from the west and north-central mountain ranges, areas with ~200-400mm mean annual precipitation mostly falling within the fall-winter-spring months, all demonstrate growth limited to the interglacial periods of the Quaternary. We present overlapping Holocene stable isotope records with a complementary trace element record to assist in interpreting the isotopic variability. One of the records is sampled at <4yr resolution and spans 3.7-5.3 kyBP, a contested period of catastrophic droughts that allegedly eradicated civilizations in areas of the near East. Imposed upon decadal-scale variability, the record reveals a 1,000-yr gradual trend toward enriched stable oxygen isotope values, interpreted as a trend toward drier conditions, which ends with an abrupt 300-yr cessation in growth beginning at 4.3 kyBP, coincident with the so-called 4.2 kyBP drought event. From the northeast Iranian plateau, we present a new stalagmite record that spans the penultimate deglaciation and Stages 5e-5a. This region presently receives limited rain annually (~100-300mm/yr, regularly falling between November and May

  18. Validation of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles through the smoothness of climate variables

    KAUST Repository

    Lee, Myoungji

    2015-05-14

    Smoothness is an important characteristic of a spatial process that measures local variability. If climate model outputs are realistic, then not only the values at each grid pixel but also the relative variation over nearby pixels should represent the true climate. We estimate the smoothness of long-term averages for land surface temperature anomalies in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and compare them by climate regions and seasons. We also compare the estimated smoothness of the climate outputs in CMIP5 with those of reanalysis data. The estimation is done through the composite likelihood approach for locally self-similar processes. The composite likelihood that we consider is a product of conditional likelihoods of neighbouring observations. We find that the smoothness of the surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5 depends primarily on the modelling institution and on the climate region. The seasonal difference in the smoothness is generally small, except for some climate regions where the average temperature is extremely high or low.

  19. Data for comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    The data we used for this study include species occurrence data (n=15 species), climate data and predictions, an expert opinion questionnaire, and species masks that represented the model domain for each species. For this data release, we include the results of the expert opinion questionnaire and the species model domains (or masks). We developed an expert opinion questionnaire to gather information on expert opinion regarding the importance of climate variables in determining a species geographic range. The species masks, or model domains, were defined separately for each species using a variation of the “target-group” approach (Phillips et al. 2009), where the domain was determined using convex polygons including occurrence data for at least three phylogenetically related and similar species (Watling et al. 2012). The species occurrence data, climate data, and climate predictions are freely available online, and therefore not included in this data release. The species occurrence data were obtained from the online database Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org/), and from scientific literature (Watling et al. 2011). Climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database (Hijmans et al. 2005) and climate predictions were obtained from the Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University (https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/resources/data-sets/regional-downscaling). See metadata for references.

  20. Multi-model ensemble analysis of Pacific and Atlantic SST variability in unperturbed climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Rubino, A.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2016-08-01

    We assess internally-generated climate variability expressed by a multi-model ensemble of unperturbed climate simulations. We focus on basin-scale annual-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from twenty multicentennial pre-industrial control simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Ensemble spatial patterns of regional modes of variability and ensemble (cross-)wavelet-based phase-frequency diagrams of corresponding paired indices summarize the ensemble characteristics of inter-basin and regional-to-global SST interactions on a broad range of timescales. Results reveal that tropical and North Pacific SSTs are a source of simulated interannual global SST variability. The North Atlantic-average SST fluctuates in rough co-phase with the global-average SST on multidecadal timescales, which makes it difficult to discern the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) signal from the global signal. The two leading modes of tropical and North Pacific SST variability converge towards co-phase in the multi-model ensemble, indicating that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results from a combination of tropical and extra-tropical processes. No robust inter- or multi-decadal inter-basin SST interaction arises from our ensemble analysis between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, though specific phase-locked fluctuations occur between Pacific and Atlantic modes of SST variability in individual simulations and/or periods within individual simulations. The multidecadal modulation of PDO by the AMV identified in observations appears to be a recurrent but not typical feature of ensemble-simulated internal variability. Understanding the mechanism(s) and circumstances favoring such inter-basin SST phasing and related uncertainties in their simulated representation could help constraining uncertainty in decadal climate predictions.

  1. ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

    2016-04-01

    The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

  2. Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Gómez-Navarro

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analyse the role of internal variability in regional climate simulations through a comparison of two regional paleoclimate simulations for the last millennium. They share the same external forcings and model configuration, differing only in the initial condition used to run the driving global model simulation. A comparison of these simulations allows us to study the role of internal variability in climate models at regional scales, and how it affects the long-term evolution of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that, although temperature is homogeneously sensitive to the effect of external forcings, the evolution of precipitation is more strongly governed by random and unpredictable internal dynamics. There are, however, some areas where the role of internal variability is lower than expected, allowing precipitation to respond to the external forcings, and we explore the underlying physical mechanisms responsible. We find that special attention should be paid when comparing the evolution of simulated precipitation with proxy reconstructions at regional scales. In particular, this study identifies areas, depending on the season, in which this comparison would be meaningful, but also other areas where good agreement between model simulations and reconstructions should not be expected even if both are perfect.

  3. Reference evapotranspiration change and its sensitivity to climate variables in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tiegang; Li, Longguo; Lai, Jianbin; Liu, Chao; Zhuang, Wenhua

    2016-08-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is the key factor for hydrologic water balance, irrigation scheduling, and water resources planning. Based on Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith method and the climate variables of 57 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2010 in southwest China, the spatial and temporal distributions of ET0 were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. Sensitivity coefficient was used to analyze the sensitivities of ET0 to four climate variables, and the key climate variables attributed to ET0 change were determined. Result showed that there was a slight downward trend of ET0 from 1960 to 2010 and spatially increasing trend from northeast to southwest in annual time scale. Results also showed that ET0 had relatively higher sensitivity to wind speed and mean air temperature, and wind speed was the dominant variable for change of ET0 in southwest China. The inverse relationship between increasing air temperature and decreasing evaporation, "evaporation paradox," existed in southwest China, and the negative contribution of wind speed to the changes of ET0 offset the positive contribution of air temperature.

  4. Regional-scale climate-variability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petit Michel

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The relationship between cholera and climate was explored in Africa, the continent with the most reported cases, by analyzing monthly 20-year cholera time series for five coastal adjoining West African countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. Methods We used wavelet analyses and derived methods because these are useful mathematical tools to provide information on the evolution of the periodic component over time and allow quantification of non-stationary associations between time series. Results The temporal variability of cholera incidence exhibits an interannual component, and a significant synchrony in cholera epidemics is highlighted at the end of the 1980's. This observed synchrony across countries, even if transient through time, is also coherent with both the local variability of rainfall and the global climate variability quantified by the Indian Oscillation Index. Conclusion Results of this study suggest that large and regional scale climate variability influence both the temporal dynamics and the spatial synchrony of cholera epidemics in human populations in the Gulf of Guinea, as has been described for two other tropical regions of the world, western South America and Bangladesh.

  5. Impact of experimental thermal amplitude on ectotherm performance: Adaptation to climate change variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folguera, Guillermo; Bastías, Daniel A; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2009-11-01

    Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However, another but poorly studied main effect of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values, paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We tested the effects of daily thermal amplitude with constant mean (24-24 degrees C, 27-21 degrees C and 32-16 degrees C) on different performance traits (rollover speed, body mass balance and survival) in populations of woodlouse (Porcellio laevis) from two altitudes. We observed that maximum performance showed a significant effect of population in the first but not in the fifth week, and only the population effect was significant for optimum temperature. Interestingly, populations under higher amplitude in environmental temperature exhibited higher resistance to a fluctuating climatic regime. We suggest that our results indicate that thermal variability may produce important effects on biodiversity. Therefore, in order to develop more realistic scenarios of global climate change effects on biodiversity, the effects of thermal variability as well as mean need to be examined simultaneously.

  6. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the retrieved essential climate variables from remotely sensed observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djepa, Vera; Badii, Atta

    2016-04-01

    The sensitivity of weather and climate system to sea ice thickness (SIT), Sea Ice Draft (SID) and Snow Depth (SD) in the Arctic is recognized from various studies. Decrease in SIT will affect atmospheric circulation, temperature, precipitation and wind speed in the Arctic and beyond. Ice thermodynamics and dynamic properties depend strongly on sea Ice Density (ID) and SD. SIT, SID, ID and SD are sensitive to environmental changes in the Polar region and impact the climate system. For accurate forecast of climate change, sea ice mass balance, ocean circulation and sea- atmosphere interactions it is required to have long term records of SIT, SID, SD and ID with errors and uncertainty analyses. The SID, SIT, ID and freeboard (F) have been retrieved from Radar Altimeter (RA) (on board ENVISAT) and IceBridge Laser Altimeter (LA) and validated, using over 10 years -collocated observations of SID and SD in the Arctic, provided from the European Space Agency (ESA CCI sea ice ECV project). Improved algorithms to retrieve SIT from LA and RA have been derived, applying statistical analysis. The snow depth is obtained from AMSR-E/Aqua and NASA IceBridge Snow Depth radar. The sea ice properties of pancake ice have been retrieved from ENVISAT/Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR). The uncertainties of the retrieved climate variables have been analysed and the impact of snow depth and sea ice density on retrieved SIT has been estimated. The sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of uncertainties of input climate variables (ID and SD) on accuracy of the retrieved output variables (SIT and SID). The developed methodology of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is essential for assessment of the impact of environmental variables on climate change and better understanding of the relationship between input and output variables. The uncertainty analysis quantifies the uncertainties of the model results and the sensitivity analysis evaluates the contribution of each input variable to

  7. Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abebe Gemeda

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background:- In Ethiopia, malaria is seasonal and unstable, causing frequent epidemics. It usually occurs at altitudes 2,000 m above sea level. For transmission of malaria parasite, climatic factors are important determinants as well as non-climatic factors that can negate climatic influences. Indeed, there is a scarcity of information on the correlation between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the level of correlation between meteorological variables and malaria cases. Methods: - Time-series analysis was conducted using data on monthly meteorological variables and monthly total malaria in Jimma town, south west Ethiopia, for the period 2000-2009. All the data were entered and analyzed using SPSS-15 database program. Spearman correlation and linear regression analysis were used to asses association between the variables. Results: - During last ten years (2000-2009, a fluctuating trend of malaria transmission was observed with P.vivax becoming predominant species. Spearman correlation analysis showed that monthly minimum temperature, total rainfall and two measures of relative humidity were positively related with malaria but monthly maximum temperature negatively related. Also regression analysis suggested that monthly minimum (p = 0.008, monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013 and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040, at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. Conclusion: - Malaria incidences in the last decade seem to have a significant association with meteorological variables. In future, prospective and multidisciplinary cooperative research involving researchers from the fields of parasitology, epidemiology, botany, agriculture and climatology is necessary to identify the real effect of meteorological factors on vector- borne diseases like

  8. Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

  9. Net primary productivity of subalpine meadows in Yosemite National Park in relation to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Peggy E.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Yee, Julie L.; McClaran, Mitchel P.; Cole, David N.; McDougald, Neil K.; Brooks, Matthew L.

    2013-01-01

    Subalpine meadows are some of the most ecologically important components of mountain landscapes, and primary productivity is important to the maintenance of meadow functions. Understanding how changes in primary productivity are associated with variability in moisture and temperature will become increasingly important with current and anticipated changes in climate. Our objective was to describe patterns and variability in aboveground live vascular plant biomass in relation to climatic factors. We harvested aboveground biomass at peak growth from four 64-m2 plots each in xeric, mesic, and hydric meadows annually from 1994 to 2000. Data from nearby weather stations provided independent variables of spring snow water content, snow-free date, and thawing degree days for a cumulative index of available energy. We assembled these climatic variables into a set of mixed effects analysis of covariance models to evaluate their relationships with annual aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and we used an information theoretic approach to compare the quality of fit among candidate models. ANPP in the xeric meadow was negatively related to snow water content and thawing degree days and in the mesic meadow was negatively related to snow water content. Relationships between ANPP and these 2 covariates in the hydric meadow were not significant. Increasing snow water content may limit ANPP in these meadows if anaerobic conditions delay microbial activity and nutrient availability. Increased thawing degree days may limit ANPP in xeric meadows by prematurely depleting soil moisture. Large within-year variation of ANPP in the hydric meadow limited sensitivity to the climatic variables. These relationships suggest that, under projected warmer and drier conditions, ANPP will increase in mesic meadows but remain unchanged in xeric meadows because declines associated with increased temperatures would offset the increases from decreased snow water content.

  10. Millennial-scale climate variability through the Mid to Late Pleistocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, S.; Chen, J.; McManus, J. F.; Mokeddem, Z.; Theobald, M.; Thornalley, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Millennial-scale climate variability has been pervasive throughout the last 800kyr at least. The global expression of such variability is epitomised by ice core temperature records from Greenland and Antarctica, with northern records revealing abrupt changes while southern records generally display more gradual changes that are approximately out of phase with their northern counterparts. One of the most intuitive mechanisms invoked to explain these opposing signals involves varying the northward heat transport associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Additional evidence from a range of locations also highlights the importance of atmospheric shifts (e.g. rainfall and winds) in the global transmission of abrupt climate change. The (thermal) bipolar seesaw provides a simple means for transposing between the Antarctic and Greenland temperature records and has recently been exploited to produce a prediction of what Greenland records might look like if they extended back to 800ka. This exercise allowed an initial assessment of the potential interplay between millennial-scale variability and glacial-interglacial climate change (for example by confirming a link between seesaw oscillations and glacial terminations). However, the synthetic record is only a prediction and it is only 800kyr long. In order to place tighter constraints on the nature of millennial-scale variability through time and its relationship with the glacial cycles, we need to test and extend the prediction. Here we present the results from the first phase of a major effort to provide such a test. We present continuous high resolution (mean 2,200 samples - the final records will reach back to 1.7Ma and involve approximately 10,000 samples). Our results provide a vivid and revealing account of high latitude climate variability that can be compared directly with records from other sites and archives.

  11. Effects of climatic change and climatic variability on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Thornthwaite moisture index is useful as an indicator of the supply of water in an area relative to the demand under prevailing climatic conditions. This study examines the effects of long-term changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin. Temperature and precipitation estimates for doubled-CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index for steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions and for gradual changes from present to doubled-CO2 conditions. Results of the study indicate that temperature and precipitation under doubled-CO2 conditions will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying significantly drier conditions in the Delaware River basin than currently exist. The amount of decrease depends, however, on the GCM climatic-change scenario used. The results also indicate that future changes in the moisture index will be partly masked by natural year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation. ?? 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  12. Holocene winter climate variability in mid-latitude western North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ersek, Vasile; Clark, Peter U; Mix, Alan C; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    Water resources in western North America depend on winter precipitation, yet our knowledge of its sensitivity to climate change remains limited. Similarly, understanding the potential for future loss of winter snow pack requires a longer perspective on natural climate variability. Here we use stable isotopes from a speleothem in southwestern Oregon to reconstruct winter climate change for much of the past 13,000 years. We find that on millennial time scales there were abrupt transitions between warm-dry and cold-wet regimes. Temperature and precipitation changes on multi-decadal to century timescales are consistent with ocean-atmosphere interactions that arise from mechanisms similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Extreme cold-wet and warm-dry events that punctuated the Holocene appear to be sensitive to solar forcing, possibly through the influence of the equatorial Pacific on the winter storm tracks reaching the US Pacific Northwest region.

  13. CONSIDERATION ON THE CLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN OLTENIA IN THE AUTUMN OF 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARINICĂ ANDREEA FLORIANA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In the autumn of 2013, in Oltenia, weather evolution has been marked by an exceptional variability with fast transitions from a warm weather to an extremely cold and even excessively cold in some intervals and from an excessively rainy weather to a droughty weather. These fast transitions from one extreme to another of weather aspect are due to the increase of climatic variability, an aspect which is directly connected to climatic global warming. After the warmish summer of 2013, in the end of August, beginning with August 24, a cooling process has begun which has slowly continued during the whole month of September and has strengthened in the last two days. The cooling climax was registered in the interval October 4-5, when negative thermal minimum values were registered, frost in the air and ground and early hoarfrosts which affected crops, especially the vegetable crops. In November the high daily air temperature means led to gradual enforcements, and in the end of the month the autumn crops were in advanced development stages, and in rape the floral stems and studs appeared. The intense weather cooling and snowfalls were registered in the interval November 26-28 2013 which constituted a serious climatic hazard, surprising the unadapted crops to the intense weather cooling. The snow layer reached 22 cm in Caracal in Romanaţi Plain. The analysis of the climatic conditions in the south-west of Romania in the autumn of 2013 is a continuation of some extended studies on climate variability. The paper is useful to specialists, doctoral candidates and master graduates and to all people interested in the climate’s evolution (Bogdan, Marinică, 2007, Marinică et al. 2012, 2013, Sandu et al. 2012.

  14. Streamflow estimation using WRF-Hydro with dynamically downscaled climate variables over southern tropical Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June to September), which constitutes around 80% of India's annual rainfall, has shown an increasing trend in intensity and frequency of extreme events (Goswami et al., 2006). It is a widely recognized fact that the increasing temperature in association with anthropogenic activities can affect the hydrological cycle, which leads to extreme events. In addition a shift in extremes of the spatial pattern of ISMR has recently been observed (Ghosh et al., 2011). Such changes in rainfall on temporal and spatial scale can further affect the stream flow over a given region subsequently making water resource management a difficult task (Mondal and Mujumdar, 2015). The hydrological models used for the stream flow estimation are dependent on various climate variables as input data. These climate variables could be obtained through either observational networks or climate model outputs. Due to the scarcity of the observational data over the Indian region and the coarse resolution of global climate model output, which is used as input to hydrologic models, large uncertainties are introduced in stream flow output (Overgaard et al., 2007). In the present study we have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al. 2008) to downscale the essential climate variables (surface temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.) as an input for its coupled hydrological extension, WRF Hydro (NCAR user's guide). We will present the results obtained from the WRF-hydro simulation to estimate the stream flow over the Thamirabarani river basin in Southern Tropical Indian region. Preliminary simulations using WRF to estimate the precipitation showed the reasonable quantitative agreement with observed values. An attempt will be made to demonstrate how these results can further be used for developing flood-forecasting techniques and for local regional water resource management.

  15. Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fohlmeister

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Holocene climate was characterised by variability on multi-centennial to multi-decadal time scales. In central Europe, these fluctuations were most pronounced during winter. Here we present a new record of past winter climate variability for the last 10.8 ka based on four speleothems from Bunker Cave, Western Germany. Due to its central European location, the cave site is particularly well suited to record changes in precipitation and temperature in response to changes in the North Atlantic realm. We present high resolution records of δ18O, δ13C values and Mg/Ca ratios. We attribute changes in the Mg/Ca ratio to variations in the meteoric precipitation. The stable C isotope composition of the speleothems most likely reflects changes in vegetation and precipitation and variations in the δ18O signal are interpreted as variations in meteoric precipitation and temperature. We found cold and dry periods between 9 and 7 ka, 6.5 and 5.5 ka, 4 and 3 ka as well as between 0.7 to 0.2 ka. The proxy signals in our stalagmites compare well with other isotope records and, thus, seem representative for central European Holocene climate variability. The prominent 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age cold events are both recorded in the Bunker cave record. However, these events show a contrasting relationship between climate and δ18O, which is explained by different causes underlying the two climate anomalies. Whereas the Little Ice Age is attributed to a pronounced negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the 8.2 ka event was triggered by cooler conditions in the North Atlantic due to a slowdown of the Thermohaline Circulation.

  16. Plant stem cell niches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aichinger, Ernst; Kornet, Noortje; Friedrich, Thomas; Laux, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Multicellular organisms possess pluripotent stem cells to form new organs, replenish the daily loss of cells, or regenerate organs after injury. Stem cells are maintained in specific environments, the stem cell niches, that provide signals to block differentiation. In plants, stem cell niches are situated in the shoot, root, and vascular meristems-self-perpetuating units of organ formation. Plants' lifelong activity-which, as in the case of trees, can extend over more than a thousand years-requires that a robust regulatory network keep the balance between pluripotent stem cells and differentiating descendants. In this review, we focus on current models in plant stem cell research elaborated during the past two decades, mainly in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. We address the roles of mobile signals on transcriptional modules involved in balancing cell fates. In addition, we discuss shared features of and differences between the distinct stem cell niches of Arabidopsis.

  17. Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent climate variability: An information theoretic approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bhaskar, Ankush; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S

    2016-01-01

    Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance (TSI ) and cosmic ray flux (CR); El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding climate signals. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO 2 (~24%), CH 4 (~19%) and volcanic aerosols (~23%) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV (~9%) and ENSO (~12%) act as secondary dri...

  18. Toward a Unified Representation of Atmospheric Convection in Variable-Resolution Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walko, Robert [Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (United States)

    2016-11-07

    The purpose of this project was to improve the representation of convection in atmospheric weather and climate models that employ computational grids with spatially-variable resolution. Specifically, our work targeted models whose grids are fine enough over selected regions that convection is resolved explicitly, while over other regions the grid is coarser and convection is represented as a subgrid-scale process. The working criterion for a successful scheme for representing convection over this range of grid resolution was that identical convective environments must produce very similar convective responses (i.e., the same precipitation amount, rate, and timing, and the same modification of the atmospheric profile) regardless of grid scale. The need for such a convective scheme has increased in recent years as more global weather and climate models have adopted variable resolution meshes that are often extended into the range of resolving convection in selected locations.

  19. Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D.; Massom, Rob A.; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A.; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

    2017-01-01

    Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies. PMID:28233791

  20. Cholera and shigellosis: different epidemiology but similar responses to climate variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin A Cash

    Full Text Available Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate.The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event.The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an early indicator of

  1. Sustainability analysis of bioenergy based land use change under climate change and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Brouder, S. M.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Frankenberger, J.; Goforth, R. R.; Gramig, B. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    Sustainability analyses of futuristic plausible land use and climate change scenarios are critical in making watershed-scale decisions for simultaneous improvement of food, energy and water management. Bioenergy production targets for the US are anticipated to impact farming practices through the introduction of fast growing and high yielding perennial grasses/trees, and use of crop residues as bioenergy feedstocks. These land use/land management changes raise concern over potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production scenarios, both in terms of water availability and water quality; impacts that may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The objective of the study was to assess environmental, economic and biodiversity sustainability of plausible bioenergy scenarios for two watersheds in Midwest US under changing climate scenarios. The study considers fourteen sustainability indicators under nine climate change scenarios from World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate perennial bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and corn stover removal at various removal rates and their impacts on hydrology and water quality. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) developed to evaluate stream fish response to hydrology and water quality changes associated with land use change were used to quantify biodiversity sustainability of various bioenergy scenarios. The watershed-scale sustainability analysis was done in the St. Joseph River watershed located in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; and the Wildcat Creek watershed, located in Indiana. The results indicate streamflow reduction at watershed outlet with increased evapotranspiration demands for high-yielding perennial grasses. Bioenergy crops in general improved in-stream water quality compared to conventional cropping systems (maize-soybean). Water

  2. Impact of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from forested catchments in southeast Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhou

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Most of the surface water for natural environmental and human water uses in southeast Australia is sourced from forested catchments located in the higher rainfall areas. Water yield of these catchments is mainly affected by climatic conditions, but it is also greatly affected by vegetation cover change. Bushfires are a major natural disturbance in forested catchments and potentially modify the water yield of the catchments through changes to evapotranspiration (ET, interception and soil moisture storage. This paper quantifies the impacts of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from three southeast Australian catchments where Ash Wednesday bushfires occurred in February 1983. The hydrological models used here include AWRA-L, Xinanjiang and GR4J. The three models are first calibrated against streamflow data from the pre-bushfire period and they are used to simulate runoff for the post-bushfire period with the calibrated parameters. The difference between the observed and model simulated runoff for the post-bushfire period provides an estimate of the impact of bushfire on streamflow. The hydrological modelling results for the three catchments indicate that there is a substantial increase in streamflow in the first 15 yr after the 1983 bushfires. The increase in streamflow is attributed to initial decreases in ET and interception resulting from the fires, followed by logging activity. After 15 yr, streamflow dynamics are more heavily influenced by climate effects, although some impact from fire and logging regeneration may still occur. It is shown that hydrological models provide reasonable consistent estimates of forest disturbance and climate impacts on streamflow for the three catchments. The results might be used by forest managers to understand the relationship between forest disturbance and climate variability impacts on water yield in the context of climate change.

  3. THE INFLUENCE OF EUROPEAN CLIMATE VARIABILITY MECHANISM ON AIR TEMPERATURE IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. MATEI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the present paper is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of air-temperature in Romania, by using mean air-temperature values provided by the ECA&D project (http://eca.knmi.nl/. These data sets will be filtered by means of the EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, which describes various modes of space variability and time coefficient series (PC series. The EOF analysis will also be used to identify the main way of action of the European climate variability mechanism, by using multiple variables in grid points, provided by the National Centre of Atmospheric Research (NCAR, USA. The variables considered here are: sea level pressure (SLP, geopotential height at 500 mb (H500 and air temperature at 850 mb (T850, for the summer and winter seasons. The linear trends and shift points of considered variables are then assessed by means of the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests. By interpreting the results, we can infer that there is causal relationship between the large-scale analyzed parameters and temperature variability in Romania. These results are consistent with those presented by Busuioc et al., 2010, where the main variation trends of the principal European variables are shown.

  4. Late Quaternary climate variability in the Sahel: inferences from marine dust records offshore Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuut, J. W.; Meyer, I.; Fischer, H.; Mollenhauer, G.; Mulitza, S.; Pittauerova, D.; Zabel, M.; Schulz, M.

    2008-12-01

    Societies and ecosystems in northern Africa are strongly affected by the availability of water. As a consequence, long-term absence of rainfall has very dear effects on the ecosystems, as was dramatically shown in the 70'ies and 80'ies of the 20th century. Recent high-resolution reconstructions of Sahel palaeoclimate allow for new insights into these drastic climate variations and to disentangle the effects of the different components of the climate system on African climate change. In this study we extend the instrumental record of climate variability using marine sediment cores that were retrieved off the coast of Senegal, northwest Africa. The sediment records contain continuous high-resolution records of dust sedimentation ranging from about 4,000 to about 57,000 years. A 210Pb age model for the youngest sediments allows for a matching of the proxy rainfall record with instrumental precipitation data. Specifically, variations in the grain-size distributions of the terrigenous sediment fraction, deconvolved with an end-member modelling algorithm (Weltje, 1997) are used to reconstruct rainfall variability on land throughout the late Quaternary.

  5. Late Holocene climate variability in the Sahel: inferences from a marine dust record offshore Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuut, Jan-Berend; Mulitza, Stefan; Heslop, David; Pittauerova, Daniela; Fischer, Helmut; Zabel, Matthias; Collins, James; Kuhnert, Henning; Mollenhauer, Gesine; Meyer, Inka

    2010-05-01

    Societies and ecosystems in northern Africa are strongly affected by the availability of water. As a consequence, long-term absence of rainfall has very dear effects on the ecosystems, as was dramatically shown in the 70'ies and 80'ies of the 20 century. Recent high-resolution reconstructions of Sahel palaeoclimate allow for new insights into these drastic climate variations and to disentangle the effects of the different components of the climate system on African climate change. In this study we extend the instrumental record of climate variability using a marine sediment core that was retrieved off the coast of Senegal, northwest Africa. The 530-cm long record covers the last 4,000 years continuously. A Pb age model allows for a matching of the proxy record with instrumental data. Specifically, variations in the grain-size distributions of the terrigenous sediment fraction, deconvolved with an end-member modelling algorithm (Weltje, 1997) are used to reconstruct rainfall variability on land. In addition, chemical data are used to study the effect of human-induced dust production throughout the late Holocene. We show that dust deposition is closely related to monsoonal precipitation in West Africa until the 17th century AD, followed by a sharp increase in dust deposition at the beginning of the 18th century. We hypothesise that this increase in dust mobilisation is related to the advent of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region.

  6. Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.

    2015-12-01

    Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

  7. Impacts of Convective Triggering on Convective Variability in a Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y. C.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we investigated the impacts of the triggering designs of the deep convection scheme on convective variability from diurnal rainfall cycle to intraseasonal rainfall variability by using NCAR CAM5 model. Using single-column simulations at the Southern Great Plains site, we found that the underestimated nighttime rainfall of diurnal cycle can be greatly improved when two convective triggering designs from the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme (SAS) are implemented into the default Zhang-Mcfarlane (ZM) scheme. We further conducted AMIP-type climate simulations with this modified ZM scheme (ZMMOD), and found that improvements can also be seen for the diurnally propagating convection over topographical regions, such as Maritime Continent and the western coast of Columbia. We further examined the rainfall variability from synoptic to intraseasonal scales, and found that using ZMMOD scheme increases rainfall variability of 2-10-day over South America and Africa land regions. However, this improvement does not seem to transfer to the intraseasonal convective organization (20-100 days), such as the MJO. This study demonstrates the importance of convective triggering and its impacts on convective variability. This work is still on-going to understand the physical processes of such impacts and how they might affect climate systems through multiscale interactions.

  8. Climatic variability and spatial distribution of herbaceous fodders in the Sudanian zone of Benin (West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myrèse C. Ahoudji

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on future spatial distributions of Andropogon gayanus, Loxodera ledermanii and Alysicarpus ovalifolius regarding bioclimatic variables in the Sudanian zone of Benin, particularly in the W Biosphere Reserve (WBR. These species were selected according to their importance for animals feed and the intensification of exploitation pressure induced change in their natural spatial distribution. Twenty (20 bioclimatic variables were tested and variables with high auto-correlation values were eliminated. Then, we retained seven climatic variables for the model. A MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy method was used to identify all climatic factors which determined the spatial distribution of the three species. Spatial distribution showed for Andropogon gayanus, a regression of high area distribution in detriment of low and moderate areas. The same trend was observed for Loxodera ledermannii spatial distribution. For Alysicarpus ovalifolius, currently area with moderate and low distribution were the most represented but map showed in 2050 that area with high distribution increased. We can deduce that without bioclimatic variables, others factors such as: biotic interactions, dispersion constraints, anthropic pressure, human activities and another historic factor determined spatial distribution of species. Modeling techniques that require only presence data are therefore extremely valuable.

  9. Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Mézo, Priscilla; Lefort, Stelly; Séférian, Roland; Aumont, Olivier; Maury, Olivier; Murtugudde, Raghu; Bopp, Laurent

    2016-01-01

    This modeling study analyzes the simulated natural variability of pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our model system includes a global Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5A-LR), the biogeochemical model PISCES and the ecosystem model APECOSM that simulates upper trophic level organisms using a size-based approach and three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic). Analyzing an idealized (e.g., no anthropogenic forcing) 300-yr long pre-industrial simulation, we find that low and high frequency variability is dominant for the large and small organisms, respectively. Our model shows that the size-range exhibiting the largest variability at a given frequency, defined as the resonant range, also depends on the community. At a given frequency, the resonant range of the epipelagic community includes larger organisms than that of the migratory community and similarly, the latter includes larger organisms than the resonant range of the mesopelagic community. This study shows that the simulated temporal variability of marine pelagic organisms' abundance is not only influenced by natural climate fluctuations but also by the structure of the pelagic community. As a consequence, the size- and community-dependent response of marine ecosystems to climate variability could impact the sustainability of fisheries in a warming world.

  10. History and variability of East Asian monsoon climate since the late Miocene

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ The variability and dynamic mechanism of the East Asian monsoon climate is a major scientific puzzle in the exploration of global change.As early as in the late 1990s,a research team led by Prof.AN Zhisheng from the CAS Institute of Earth Environment started their work in this topic,with an objective of improving the hypothesis of monsoon-controlled East Asian environment and advancing the basic studies of past global changes in eastern Asia.

  11. Hyperspectral lidar in non-destructive 4D monitoring of climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaasalainen, S.; Hakala, T.; Nevalainen, O.; Puttonen, E.; Anttila, K.

    2014-09-01

    The first applications of a prototype 8-channel full waveform active hyperspectral lidar (HSL) show a possibility to determine various target 3D characteristics with remote observations. The results open up a prospect for four-dimensional (4D - a three dimensional target representation with time as a fourth dimension) monitoring of important climate variables, such as those related to tree physiology or snow pollution.

  12. Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Brooke E Penaluna; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Ivan Arismendi; Johnson, Sherri L.; Robert E Bilby; Mohammad Safeeq; Arne E Skaugset

    2015-01-01

    Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows...

  13. Streamflow response to climate variability and human activities in the upper catchment of the Yellow River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO FangFang; XU ZongXue; ZHANG Lu; ZUO DePeng

    2009-01-01

    Both sensitivity-based method and simulation method are used to analyze the streamflow response to climate variability and human activities in the upper catchment of the Yellow River Basin (UYRB) in this study.The separation regime of effects from climate variability and human activities is investigated.Results show that the changes of streamflow are more sensitive to precipitation than potential evapotranspiration (PET).Effect of climate variability on streamflow estimated using the sensitiv-ity-based method is weak in the upper catchment of Jimai station, and strong in the upper catchment of Lanzhou station, where the climate effects accounted for about 50% of total streamflow changes.Effects of human activities on streamflow accounted for about 40% in the UYRB, with weaker effects in the upper catchment of Tangnaihai station than those in the upper catchment of Lanzhou station.Both climate variability and human activities are main factors to affect the changes of streamflow in the UYRB.

  14. Streamflow response to climate variability and human activities in the upper catchment of the Yellow River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Both sensitivity-based method and simulation method are used to analyze the streamflow response to climate variability and human activities in the upper catchment of the Yellow River Basin (UYRB) in this study. The separation regime of effects from climate variability and human activities is investigated. Results show that the changes of streamflow are more sensitive to precipitation than potential evapotranspiration (PET). Effect of climate variability on streamflow estimated using the sensitivity-based method is weak in the upper catchment of Jimai station, and strong in the upper catchment of Lanzhou station, where the climate effects accounted for about 50% of total streamflow changes. Effects of human activities on streamflow accounted for about 40% in the UYRB, with weaker effects in the upper catchment of Tangnaihai station than those in the upper catchment of Lanzhou station. Both climate variability and human activities are main factors to affect the changes of streamflow in the UYRB.

  15. Plant Functional Variability in Response to Late-Quaternary Climate Change Recorded in Ancient Packrat Middens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmgren, C. A.; Potts, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    Responses of plant functional traits to environmental variability are of enduring interest because they constrain organism performance and ecosystem function. However, most inferences regarding plant functional trait response to climatic variability have been limited to the modern period. To better understand plant functional response to long-term climate variability and how adjustments in leaf morphology may contribute to patterns of species establishment, persistence, or extirpation, we measured specific leaf area (SLA) from macrofossils preserved in ancient packrat middens collected along the Arizona/New Mexico border, USA. Our record spanned more than 32,000 years and included six woodland and Chihuahuan Desert species: Berberis cf. haematocarpa, Juniperus cf. coahuilensis, Juniperus osteosperma, Larrea tridentata, Prosopis glandulosa and Parthenium incanum. We predicted that regional climatic warming and drying since the late Pleistocene would result in intraspecific decreases in SLA. As predicted, SLA was positively correlated with midden age for three of the six species (L. tridentata, J. osteosperma, B. cf. haematocarpa). SLA was also negatively correlated with December (L. tridentata, J. cf. coahuilensis) or June (B. cf. haematocarpa, J. osteosperma) insolation. A unique record of vegetation community dynamics, plant macrofossils preserved in packrat middens also represent a rich and largely untapped source of information on long-term trends in species functional response to environmental change.

  16. Evaluation of energy efficiency in street lighting: model proposition considering climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaury Caruzzo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the impacts of climate variability on efficient electricity consumption in street lighting in Brazil. The Climate Demand Method (CDM was applied, and the energy savings achieved by Brazil’s National Efficient Street Lighting Program (ReLuz in 2005 were calculated, considering the monthly climatology of sunshine duration, disaggregated by county in Brazil. The total energy savings in street lighting in 2005 were estimated at 63 GWh/year or 1.39% higher than the value determined by ReLuz/Eletrobrás and there was a 15 MW reduction in demand in Brazil, considering the nearly 393,000 points in ReLuz served in 2005. The results indicate that, besides the difference in latitude, climate variability in different county increases the daily usage of street lighting up to 19%. Furthermore, Brazil’s large size means that seasonality patterns in energy savings are not homogeneous, and there is a correlation between the monthly variability in sunshine duration and the latitude of mesoregions. The CDM was also shown to be suitable for ranking mesoregions with the highest levels of energy saving lighting.

  17. The impact of climate variability on the production of Black Sea anchovy: a modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guraslan, Ceren; Fach, Bettina A.; Oguz, Temel I.; Salihoglu, Baris

    2010-05-01

    The influence of climate variability on anchovy eggs and larvae production and the interaction with gelatineous zooplankton in the Black Sea is studied with a one-dimensional, lower trophic level and anchovy bioenergetics model including parameterizations for a gelatineous predator. Stochastic climate variability in the form of fifty-year interannual temperature and nutrient entrainment rate variability is used to simulate how climate-mediated effects cascade across trophic levels and how the anchovy population production responds to such disturbances. Model results reveal a high correlation of egg production and recruitment success in response to changes in temperature and nutrient entrainment rates and complex and highly nonlinear interactions between anchovy and gelatineous populations. Moreover, it is indicated in the results that temperature variation has strong long-term effects on anchovy population production and its signal propagates through successive adult year classes. Although, temperature has a direct effect on anchovy egg and larvae production via influencing mortality rates, it indirectly influences anchovy production by modulating the mixed layer depth, which affects phytoplankton blooms and zooplankton availability, the major food source of anchovy.

  18. Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P. C. D.; Jaffé, Peter R.

    2016-07-01

    Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr-1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

  19. Using Ecological Niche Modeling for Biodiversity Conservation Guidance in the Western Podillya (Ukraine: Reptiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tytar V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Using Ecological Niche Modeling for Biodiversity Conservation Guidance in the Western Podillya (Ukraine: Reptiles. Tytar, V., Sobolenko, L., Nekrasova, O. Mezhzherin, S. - Maximum entropy niche modeling was employed as a tool to assess potential habitat suitability for 10 reptile species and to map their potential distribution in the Western Podillya (Ukraine. We used climate, topography and human impact (assessed by the Human Footprint as predictor variables. “Isothermality”, “temperature seasonality” and the “mean temperature of coldest month” were three most important factors in predicting habitat suitability and distribution. A profound contribution to the modeling has been displayed by the Human Footprint, meaning that human infrastructure may benefit reptile species. Areas have been distinguished that in the first place should be of interest to biodiversity conservationists targeting reptiles and maps summarizing predicted habitat suitability and species richness were produced for guiding conservation efforts.

  20. Potential Distribution of Chagas Disease Vectors (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) in Colombia, Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez-Escudero, Laura C.; González-Caro, Sebastián

    2016-01-01

    Ecological niche modeling of Triatominae bugs allow us to establish the local risk of transmission of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, which causes Chagas disease. This information could help to guide health authority recommendations on infection monitoring, prevention, and control. In this study, we estimated the geographic distribution of triatomine species in Colombia and identified the relationship between landscape structure and climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 2451 records of 4 triatomine species (Panstrongylus geniculatus, Rhodnius pallescens, R. prolixus, and Triatoma maculata) were analyzed. The variables that provided more information to explain the ecologic niche of these vectors were related to precipitation, altitude, and temperature. We found that the species with the broadest potential geographic distribution were P. geniculatus, R. pallescens, and R. prolixus. In general, the models predicted the highest occurrence probability of these vectors in the eastern slope of the Eastern Cordillera, the southern region of the Magdalena valley, and the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta. PMID:28115946

  1. Links between global CO2 variability and climate anomalies of biomes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peter; S.; BAKWIN

    2008-01-01

    The global rate of fossil fuel combustion continues to rise, but the amount of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere has not increased accordingly. The causes for this discrepancy are widely debated. Par- ticularly, the location and drivers for the interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 are highly uncertain. Here we examine links between global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) and the climate anomalies of biomes based on (1986―1995) global climate data of ten years and accompanying satellite data sets. Our results show that four biomes, the tropical rainforest, tropical savanna, C4 grassland and boreal forest, and their responses to climate anomalies, are the major climate-sensitive CO2 sinks/sources that control the CGR. The nature and magnitude by which these biomes respond to climate anomalies are generally not the same. However, one common influence did emerge from our analysis; the ex- tremely high CGR observed for the one extreme El Nio year was caused by the response of the tropical biomes (rainforest, savanna and C4 grassland) to temperature.

  2. Links between global CO2 variability and climate anomalies of biomes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; YI ChuiXiang; Peter S.BAKWIN; ZHU Li

    2008-01-01

    The global rate of fossil fuel combustion continues to rise, but the amount of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere has not increased accordingly. The causes for this discrepancy are widely debated. Par-ticularly, the location and drivers for the interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 are highly uncertain. Here we examine links between global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) and the climate anomalies of biomes based on (1986--1995) global climate data of ten years and accompanying satellite data sets. Our results show that four biomes, the tropical rainforest, tropical savanna, C4 grassland and boreal forest, and their responses to climate anomalies, are the major climate-sensitive CO2 sinks/sources that control the CGR. The nature and magnitude by which these biomes respond to climate anomalies are generally not the same. However, one common influence did emerge from our analysis; the ex-tremely high CGR observed for the one extreme El Nino year was caused by the response of the tropical biomes (rainforest, savanna and C4 grassland) to temperature.

  3. Evaluation of methods for estimating the effects of vegetation change and climate variability on streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fangfang; Zhang, Lu; Xu, Zongxue; Scott, David F.

    2010-03-01

    Changes in vegetation cover can significantly affect streamflow. Two common methods for estimating vegetation effects on streamflow are the paired catchment method and the time trend analysis technique. In this study, the performance of these methods is evaluated using data from paired catchments in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. Results show that these methods generally yield consistent estimates of the vegetation effect, and most of the observed streamflow changes are attributable to vegetation change. These estimates are realistic and are supported by the vegetation history. The accuracy of the estimates, however, largely depends on the length of calibration periods or pretreatment periods. For catchments with short or no pretreatment periods, we find that statistically identified prechange periods can be used as calibration periods. Because streamflow also responds to climate variability, in assessing streamflow changes it is necessary to consider the effect of climate in addition to the effect of vegetation. Here, the climate effect on streamflow was estimated using a sensitivity-based method that calculates changes in rainfall and potential evaporation. A unifying conceptual framework, based on the assumption that climate and vegetation are the only drivers for streamflow changes, enables comparison of all three methods. It is shown that these methods provide consistent estimates of vegetation and climate effects on streamflow for the catchments considered. An advantage of the time trend analysis and sensitivity-based methods is that they are applicable to nonpaired catchments, making them potentially useful in large catchments undergoing vegetation change.

  4. Assessing the relative importance of climate variables to rice yield variation using support vector machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hong-Bin

    2016-10-01

    Climate factors have distinct impacts on crop yields. Understanding the relative importance of these factors to crop yield variation could provide valuable information about crop planting and management under climate change condition for policymakers and farmers. The current study investigated the applicability of support vector machines (SVMs) in determining the relative importance of climate factors (mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, daily temperature range, and rainy days) to yield variation of paddy rice in southwestern China. The SVM models were compared with traditional artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression. The performance accuracy was evaluated by mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative absolute error (MRAE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), and coefficient of determination ( R 2). Comparative results showed that SVMs outperformed artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression. The SVM with radial basis function performed best with MAE of 0.06 t ha-1, MRAE of 0.9 %, RMSE of 0.15 t ha-1, RRMSE of 2.23 %, and R 2 of 0.94. The results showed that SVMs are suitable for determining the effects of climate on crop yield variability. The relative importance of the studied climate factors to rice yield variation was in order of sunshine hours > daily temperature range > rainfall > relative humidity > mean temperature > rainy days in the current study area.

  5. The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar

  6. Contributions of Climate Variability and Human Activities to Runoff Changes in the Upper Catchment of the Red River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yungang Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes will contribute to regional water resource planning and management. This study aims to separate the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes in the upper catchment of the Red River Basin in China. The Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test methods were applied to identify the trends and change points of the hydro-meteorological variables. The hydrological sensitivity, climate elasticity and hydrological simulation methods were adopted to estimate the contributions of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. Results showed that annual runoff significantly decreased by 1.57 mm/year during the period of 1961–2012. A change point in annual runoff coefficient occurred in 2002. Accordingly, the annual runoff series were divided into the baseline period (1961–2002 and the impacted period (2003–2012. Mean annual runoff of the impacted period decreased by 29.13% compared with the baseline period. Similar estimates of the contributions of climate variability and human activities were obtained by the three different methods. Climate variability was estimated to be responsible for 69%–71% of the reduction in annual runoff, and human activities accounted for 29%–31%. Climate variability was the main driving factor for runoff decrease in the catchment.

  7. Climate variability of Late Pleistocene deglaciation in the North American midcontinent derived from tree rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panyushkina, Irina P.; Livina, Valerie N.; Leavitt, Steve W.; Mode, William N.

    2016-04-01

    High-resolution climatic proxies, such as tree rings spanning millennia, have excellent potential to describe high- and low-frequency variability of climate. In practice, however, although the number of Holocene millennium-length tree-ring records is still rather limited, they are especially rare for the Late Pleistocene warming period following the Last Glacial Maximum. Furthermore, detection of climatic variability in tree-ring data is hindered due to intricate methodology of chronology development that transforms changes in tree geometry and a variety of environmental responses of tree growth to a climatic signal. Following meticulous derivation of a new tree-ring chronology, we propose a novel approach to analyze annual, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial climate-related variability of floating tree rings dated back near the end of the Pleistocene. We have developed a 1400-year tree-ring width chronology of spruce from the Green Bay area (Wisconsin) dated from 14.5 ka to 13.1ka cal BP. This new North American midcontinent record is composed of 10 overlapped site chronologies and has two short gaps filled with linear interpolation. The Green Bay chronology covers most of the warm and moist Bølling-Allerød interstadial (14.7 ka -12.7 ka BP). Within the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, there were several abrupt and brief cooling excursions such as the Older Dryas with full-glacial-like temperature conditions. We have applied tipping point analysis to detect the changes of climate-system states during these turbulent times and obtained early warning signals in the tree-ring variance. The analysis detected four short-term bifurcations dated ca. 14,450 cal BP, 14,000 cal BP, 13,750-13,600 cal BP and 13,180-13,100 cal BP. The bifurcation events of the tree-ring record correspond well to the abrupt and short cooling temperature excursions of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial documented in δ18O and Ca of GRIP ice-core records, and the Laurentide ice sheet dynamics

  8. Oscar: a portable prototype system for the study of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, Fabio; Rosoldi, Marco; Amato, Francesco

    2015-04-01

    The study of the techniques for the exploitation of solar energy implies the knowledge of nature, ecosystem, biological factors and local climate. Clouds, fog, water vapor, and the presence of large concentrations of dust can significantly affect the way to exploit the solar energy. Therefore, a quantitative characterization of the impact of climate variability at the regional scale is needed to increase the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. OSCAR (Observation System for Climate Application at Regional scale) project, funded in the frame of the PO FESR 2007-2013, aims at the design of a portable prototype system for the study of correlations among the trends of several Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the change in the amount of solar irradiance at the ground level. The final goal of this project is to provide a user-friendly low cost solution for the quantification of the impact of regional climate variability on the efficiency of solar cell and concentrators to improve the exploitation of natural sources. The prototype has been designed on the basis of historical measurements performed at CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO). Measurements from satellite and data from models have been also considered as ancillary to the study, above all, to fill in the gaps of existing datasets. In this work, the results outcome from the project activities will be presented. The results include: the design and implementation of the prototype system; the development of a methodology for the estimation of the impact of climate variability, mainly due to aerosol, cloud and water vapor, on the solar irradiance using the integration of the observations potentially provided by prototype; the study of correlation between the surface radiation, precipitation and aerosols transport. In particular, a statistical study will be presented to assess the impact of the atmosphere on the solar irradiance at the ground, quantifying the contribution due to aerosol and

  9. Millennial Scale Variability of the AMOC and its Link to Climate During the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornalley, D. J.; Oppo, D.; Keigwin, L. D.; Hall, I. R.; Moffa Sanchez, P.

    2014-12-01

    Several proxy and modelling studies suggest that there may have been considerable change in the operation the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Holocene. Yet despite its importance for regional and global climate, the Holocene history of the AMOC is poorly constrained. Improving our knowledge of past AMOC variability will contribute to our general understanding of the dynamics of ocean circulation and the role it may play in causing or amplifying climate variability on millennial timescales. We present Holocene grain-size records in depth transects from Blake Outer Ridge and Cape Hatteras, sampling the full-depth range of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), the lower limb of the AMOC. These records will complement a depth-transect of grain-size records sampling the Iceland-Scotland (I-S) overflow, showing Holocene variations that reflect deglacial meltwater forcing in the early Holocene and insolation-forced trends from the middle-to-late Holocene (Thornalley et al., 2013, Climate of the Past). We will also present detailed grain-size records for the last 2,000 years, both in a depth transect of cores off Cape Hatteras, and from cores in the Iceland Basin, sampling the I-S overflow. Our extensive datasets enable us to provide a coherent synthesis of changes in the flow strength of key components of the AMOC on centennial-millennial and orbital timescales, which we can use to develop our understanding of past millennial-scale climate variability. Specific questions to be addressed include: How well coupled are Holocene trends in Iceland-Scotland overflow and the DWBC? How did I-S overflow and the AMOC vary during the last millennia, including the last ~150 years since the end of the Little Ice Age? Initial results suggest a long-term anti-phasing of the Nordic overflows, wherein mid-late Holocene weakening of the I-S overflow has been compensated for by a strengthening of Denmark Strait overflow. We will also report on pronounced

  10. The double tragedy of agriculture vulnerability to climate variability in Africa: How vulnerable is smallholder agriculture to rainfall variability in Ghana?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel K. Derbile

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article analysed vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate variability, particularly the alternating incidences of drought and heavy precipitation events in Ghana. Although there is an unmet need for understanding the linkages between climate change and livelihoods, the urgent need for climate change adaptation planning (CCAP in response to climate change makes vulnerability assessment even more compelling in development research. The data for analysis were collected from two complementary studies. These included a regional survey in the Upper West Region and an in-depth study in three selected communities in the Sissala East District. The results showed that smallholder agriculture is significantly vulnerable to climate variability in the region and that three layers of vulnerability can be identified in a ladder of vulnerability. Firstly, farmers are confronted with the double tragedy of droughts and heavy precipitation events, which adversely affect both crops and livestock. Secondly, farmers have to decide on crops for adaptation, but each option – whether indigenous crops, new early-maturing crops or genetically modified crops – predisposes farmers to a different set of risks. Finally, the overall impact is a higher-level vulnerability, namely the risk of total livelihood failure and food insecurity. The article recommended CCAP and an endogenous development (ED approach to addressing agriculture vulnerability to climate variability within the framework of decentralisation and local governance in Ghana.Keywords: Climate variability; agriculture; vulnerability; endogenous development; Ghana

  11. Regional Climate and Variability of the Summertime Continental United States in Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M G.; Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, B.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding climate variability at regional scales is an important for research and societal needs. Atmospheric retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate multitudes of observing systems with numerical models to produce continuous data that include variables not easily observed, if at all. The breadth of variables as well as observational influence included in reanalyses make them ideal for investigating climate variability. In this paper, we assess NASA s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) regional variability in North America, specifically the United States, in conjunction with current satellite data reanalyses. Emphasis is placed on summertime precipitation because 1) it is a difficult parameter to capture in the most difficult season, 2) significant observational resources exist to benchmark comparisons, and 3) accurate assessment of precipitation variability is crucial to a multitude of sectors and applications. Likewise, we have also begun to evaluate surface air temperature. While precipitation biases are identified, year to year variability of the precipitation variations, in many cases, are quite reasonable. However, some spurious long term trends and sudden shifts in the time series are also identified. In surface air temperature, analysis of station observations provides ERA Interim a clear overall advantage. However, in a number of regions, all the reanalyses are quite comparable in variability and trend. In other regions, significant precipitation biases may occur, which has implications for the ancillary process data in a reanalysis, such as surface fluxes. We also characterize the reanalyses ability to capture variability related to ENSO. In general, the summertime variations of precipitation in the reanalyses are more highly correlated (positively) to ENSO (using ENSO34) than are the observations. The Northwestern US shows the largest positive correlations to ENSO34, and reanalyses agree with that, and

  12. Mammalian niche conservation through deep time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa R G DeSantis

    Full Text Available Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ~2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of

  13. Regression tree modeling of forest NPP using site conditions and climate variables across eastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Y.

    2013-12-01