WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate system study

  1. A Web-Based Geovisual Analytical System for Climate Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenlong Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate studies involve petabytes of spatiotemporal datasets that are produced and archived at distributed computing resources. Scientists need an intuitive and convenient tool to explore the distributed spatiotemporal data. Geovisual analytical tools have the potential to provide such an intuitive and convenient method for scientists to access climate data, discover the relationships between various climate parameters, and communicate the results across different research communities. However, implementing a geovisual analytical tool for complex climate data in a distributed environment poses several challenges. This paper reports our research and development of a web-based geovisual analytical system to support the analysis of climate data generated by climate model. Using the ModelE developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS as an example, we demonstrate that the system is able to (1 manage large volume datasets over the Internet; (2 visualize 2D/3D/4D spatiotemporal data; (3 broker various spatiotemporal statistical analyses for climate research; and (4 support interactive data analysis and knowledge discovery. This research also provides an example for managing, disseminating, and analyzing Big Data in the 21st century.

  2. An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Tongwen; WU Fanghua; LIU Yiming; ZHANG Fang; SHI Xueli; CHU Min; ZHANG Jie; FANG Yongjie; WANG Fang; LU Yixiong; LIU Xiangwen; SONG Lianchun; WEI Min; LIU Qianxia; ZHOU Wenyan; DONG Min; ZHAO Qigeng; JI Jinjun; Laurent LI; ZHOU Mingyu; LI Weiping; WANG Zaizhi; ZHANG Hua; XIN Xiaoge; ZHANG Yanwu; ZHANG Li; LI Jianglong

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125◦×2.8125◦) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125◦×1.125◦). Both versions are fully cou-pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase fi ve (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate pro jections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and pro jections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in-dicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  3. An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tongwen; Song, Lianchun; Li, Weiping; Wang, Zaizhi; Zhang, Hua; Xin, Xiaoge; Zhang, Yanwu; Zhang, Li; Li, Jianglong; Wu, Fanghua; Liu, Yiming; Zhang, Fang; Shi, Xueli; Chu, Min; Zhang, Jie; Fang, Yongjie; Wang, Fang; Lu, Yixiong; Liu, Xiangwen; Wei, Min; Liu, Qianxia; Zhou, Wenyan; Dong, Min; Zhao, Qigeng; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Laurent; Zhou, Mingyu

    2014-02-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC_CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC_CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125°×1.125°). Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC_CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC_CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC_CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  4. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie; Goldman, Charles

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the problem is to understand how the electric system is vulnerable to physical weather risk, and how to make use of information from climate models to characterize the way these risks may evolve over time, including a treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, to provide the necessary technical background in climate science, we present an overview of the basic physics of climate and explain some of the methodologies used in climate modeling studies, particularly the importance of emissions scenarios. We also provide a brief survey of recent climate-related studies relevant to electric system planning in the Western US. To define the institutional context, we discuss the core elements of the resource and reliability planning processes used currently by utilities and by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. To illustrate more precisely how climate-related risk could be incorporated into modeling exercises, we discuss three idealized examples. Overall, we argue that existing methods of analysis can and should be extended to encompass the uncertainties related to future climate. While the focus here is on risk related to physical impacts, the same principles apply to a consideration of how future climate change policy decisions might impact the design and functioning of the electric grid. We conclude with some suggestions and recommendations on how to begin developing this approach within the existing electric system planning framework for the West.

  5. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  6. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  7. HVAC systems in a field laboratory for indoor climate study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fang, Lei; Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the design of a HVAC system for a field lab. The design integrated mixing ventilation, displacement ventilation, low impulse vertical ventilation, personalized ventilation, natural ventilation, hybrid ventilation, active chilled beams, radiant ceiling and floor, and heat...

  8. Effects of climate change on regional energy systems focussing on space heating and cooling: A case study of Austria

    OpenAIRE

    Hausl Stephan; Themessl Matthias; Gadocha Sabine; Schardinger Ingrid; Biberacher Markus; Castellazzi Bernhard; Gobiet Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Climate change affects regions differently and therefore also climate change effects on energy systems need to be analyzed region specific. The objective of the study presented is to show and analyze these effects on regional energy systems following a high spatial resolution approach. Three regional climate scenarios are downscaled to a 1 km resolution and error corrected for three different testing regions in Austria. These climate data are used to analyz...

  9. Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system

    OpenAIRE

    Lenton, Timothy M.; Myerscough, Richard J.; Marsh, Robert; Livina, Valerie N.; Price, Andrew R.; Cox, Simon J.

    2009-01-01

    We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling framework to study the archetypal example of a tipping point in the climate system; a threshold for the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). eScience has been invaluable in this work and we explain how we have made it work for us. Two stable states of the THC have been found to coexist, under the same boundary conditions, in a hierarchy of models. The climate forcing required to collapse the THC and the revers...

  10. High Performance Work System, HRD Climate and Organisational Performance: An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muduli, Ashutosh

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to study the relationship between high-performance work system (HPWS) and organizational performance and to examine the role of human resource development (HRD) Climate in mediating the relationship between HPWS and the organizational performance in the context of the power sector of India. Design/methodology/approach: The…

  11. Framework for studying the hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallema, Dennis W.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gumiere, Silvio J.; Périard, Yann; Hiemstra, Paul H.; Bouttier, Léa; Fossey, Maxime; Paquette, Alain; Cogliastro, Alain; Olivier, Alain

    2014-09-01

    Alley cropping is an agroforestry practice whereby crops are grown between hedgerows of trees planted at wide spacings. The local climate and the physiological adaptation mechanisms of the trees are key factors in the growth and survival of the trees and intercrops, because they directly affect the soil moisture distribution. In order to evaluate the long-term hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system in eastern Canada, we developed a framework that combines local soil moisture data with local projections of climate change and a model of soil water movement, root uptake and evapotranspiration. Forty-five frequency domain reflectometers (FDR) along a transect perpendicular to the tree rows generated a two-year dataset that we used for the parameterization and evaluation of the model. An impact study with simulations based on local projections of three global and one regional climate simulation suggest that the soil becomes drier overall in the period between 2041 and 2070, while the number of critically wet periods with a length of one day increases slightly with respect to the reference period between 1967 and 1996. Hydrological simulations based on a fourth climate scenario however point toward wetter conditions. In all cases the changes are minor. Although our simulations indicate that the experimental alley cropping system will possibly suffer drier conditions in response to higher temperatures and increased evaporative demand, these conditions are not necessarily critical for vegetation during the snow-free season.

  12. Parametric sensibility study of an indirect evaporation passive cooling system in hot and humid climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almao, N.; Dopazo, J.; Rincon, J. [University of Zulia (Venezuela). Mechanical Engineering School; Gonzalez, E. [University of Zulia (Venezuela). Architecture Research Institute

    2000-07-01

    A numerical parametric study of an indirect evaporation passive cooling system (IEPCS) to obtain the design characteristics that will guarantee its best performance under hot and humid climate conditions is presented. This IEPCS will be part of a bioclimatic house prototype to be built in Maracaibo, Venezuela. Water thickness and air velocity over the water were selected as parameters affecting the system performance. Numerical simulations have been carried out using a two-dimensional CFD code. (author)

  13. Data Visualization and Analysis for Climate Studies using NASA Giovanni Online System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Hualan; Leptoukh, Gregory; Lloyd, Steven

    2008-01-01

    With many global earth observation systems and missions focused on climate systems and the associated large volumes of observational data available for exploring and explaining how climate is changing and why, there is an urgent need for climate services. Giovanni, the NASA GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd ANalysis Infrastructure, is a simple to use yet powerful tool for analysing these data for research on global warming and climate change, as well as for applications to weather. air quality, agriculture, and water resources,

  14. Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Nolasco, Rita; Rocha, Alfredo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Dubert, Jesus

    2016-07-01

    The present work aims at evaluating the impacts of a climate change scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the Iberian Upwelling System. Using regional ocean model configurations, the study domain is forced with three different sets of surface fields: a climatological dataset to provide the control run; a dataset obtained from averaging several global climate models (GCM) that integrate the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models used in climate scenarios, for the same period as the climatological dataset; and this same dataset but for a future period, retrieved from the IPCC A2 climate scenario. After ascertaining that the ocean run forced with the GCM dataset for the present compared reasonably well with the climatologically forced run, the results for the future run (relative to the respective present run) show a general temperature increase (from +0.5 to +3 °C) and salinity decrease (from -0.1 to -0.3), particularly in the upper 100-200 m, although these differences depend strongly on season and distance to the coast. There is also strengthening of the SST cross-shore gradient associated to upwelling, which causes narrowing and shallowing of the upwelling jet. This effect is contrary to the meridional wind stress intensification that is also observed, which would tend to strengthen the upwelling jet.

  15. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  16. Oscar: a portable prototype system for the study of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, Fabio; Rosoldi, Marco; Amato, Francesco

    2015-04-01

    The study of the techniques for the exploitation of solar energy implies the knowledge of nature, ecosystem, biological factors and local climate. Clouds, fog, water vapor, and the presence of large concentrations of dust can significantly affect the way to exploit the solar energy. Therefore, a quantitative characterization of the impact of climate variability at the regional scale is needed to increase the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. OSCAR (Observation System for Climate Application at Regional scale) project, funded in the frame of the PO FESR 2007-2013, aims at the design of a portable prototype system for the study of correlations among the trends of several Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the change in the amount of solar irradiance at the ground level. The final goal of this project is to provide a user-friendly low cost solution for the quantification of the impact of regional climate variability on the efficiency of solar cell and concentrators to improve the exploitation of natural sources. The prototype has been designed on the basis of historical measurements performed at CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO). Measurements from satellite and data from models have been also considered as ancillary to the study, above all, to fill in the gaps of existing datasets. In this work, the results outcome from the project activities will be presented. The results include: the design and implementation of the prototype system; the development of a methodology for the estimation of the impact of climate variability, mainly due to aerosol, cloud and water vapor, on the solar irradiance using the integration of the observations potentially provided by prototype; the study of correlation between the surface radiation, precipitation and aerosols transport. In particular, a statistical study will be presented to assess the impact of the atmosphere on the solar irradiance at the ground, quantifying the contribution due to aerosol and

  17. STUDY OF CLIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE TITU-OGREZENI IRRIGATION SYSTEM PERIMETER BY ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC DEFICIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Zamfir

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Our country's climate shows great changes both in time and space. These changes are also reflected on agriculturalproductions that also sometime presents substantial differences from one year to another and from one area to another.Based on statistical analyses on large arrays of years, it results that in Romania, the dry years are in very highproportion going up to 70%.For getting to knowing requirements from water of major agricultural crops, by the study achieved mainly thenecessary dimensioning of water for irrigations using the climate deficit method has been considered.From the chronological sequence analysis of years, under the climatic deficit, the change of this in a positive way thatleads to the need for irrigations is come out. Given the set of climatic parameters, the model that approximates the bestthe evolution tendency as some parametrical equations has been studied. Since 2009, for the next 57 years the trendline of the evolution of climatic deficit is clearly increasing in the months May-August.

  18. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  19. Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivey, Mark D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robinson, David G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, Kara J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Desilets, Darin Maurice [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reinert, Rhonda Karen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

  20. Testing a theory of organizational culture, climate and youth outcomes in child welfare systems: a United States national study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Nathaniel J; Glisson, Charles

    2014-04-01

    Theories of organizational culture and climate (OCC) applied to child welfare systems hypothesize that strategic dimensions of organizational culture influence organizational climate and that OCC explains system variance in youth outcomes. This study provides the first structural test of the direct and indirect effects of culture and climate on youth outcomes in a national sample of child welfare systems and isolates specific culture and climate dimensions most associated with youth outcomes. The study applies multilevel path analysis (ML-PA) to a U.S. nationwide sample of 2,380 youth in 73 child welfare systems participating in the second National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being. Youths were selected in a national, two-stage, stratified random sample design. Youths' psychosocial functioning was assessed by caregivers' responses to the Child Behavior Checklist at intake and at 18-month follow-up. OCC was assessed by front-line caseworkers' (N=1,740) aggregated responses to the Organizational Social Context measure. Comparison of the a priori and subsequent trimmed models confirmed a reduced model that excluded rigid organizational culture and explained 70% of the system variance in youth outcomes. Controlling for youth- and system-level covariates, systems with more proficient and less resistant organizational cultures exhibited more functional, more engaged, and less stressful climates. Systems with more proficient cultures and more engaged, more functional, and more stressful climates exhibited superior youth outcomes. Findings suggest child welfare administrators can support service effectiveness with interventions that improve specific dimensions of culture and climate.

  1. Climate data management system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drach, R

    1999-07-13

    The Climate Data Management System is an object-oriented data management system, specialized for organizing multidimensional, gridded data used in climate analysis and simulation. The building blocks of CDMS are variables, container classes, structural classes, and links. All gridded data stored in CDMS is associated with variables. The container objects group variables and structural objects. Variables are defined in terms of structural objects. Most CDMS objects can have attributes, which are scalar or one-dimensional metadata items. Attributes which are stored in the database, that is are persistent, are called external attributes. Some attributes are internal; they are associated with an object but do not appear explicitly in the database.

  2. Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkomwa, Emmanuel Charles; Joshua, Miriam Kalanda; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Monjerezi, Maurice; Chipungu, Felistus

    In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.

  3. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Models (RCMs cannot, however, be used to simulate such a large number of scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining future climate scenarios through a simple scaling methodology. The projections of several key meteorological variables obtained from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections drawn in a probability distribution of future global-mean warming. The resulting climate change scenarios are used to drive a hydrological and a water management model to analyse the potential climate change impacts on a water resources system. This methodology enables a joint quantification of the climate change impact uncertainty induced by the global-mean warming scenarios and the regional climate response. It is applied to a case study in Switzerland, a water resources system formed by three interconnected lakes located in the Jura Mountains. The system behaviour is simulated for a control period (1961–1990 and a future period (2070–2099. The potential climate change impacts are assessed through a set of impact indices related to different fields of interest (hydrology, agriculture and ecology. The results obtained show that future climate conditions will have a significant influence on the performance of the system and that the uncertainty induced by the inter-RCM variability will contribute to much of the uncertainty of the prediction of the total impact. These CSRs cover the area considered in the 2001–2004 EU funded project SWURVE.

  4. - A case study for sessile oak (Quercus petraea) distribution - Preliminarly results of a Decision Support System for climate impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Gálos, Borbála; Berki, Imre; Czimber, Kornél

    2014-05-01

    Rainfed sectors of forestry are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. To initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses, a Decision Support System is under development, which provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts. The case study will focus on the following aspects: • For the time period 1961-2010, precipitation and temperature means and extreme events have been analyzed in the Carpathian basin, using gridded station data from the EU-project CARPATCLIM (http://www.carpatclim-eu.org). • The climate indicators have been identified that characterize and determine the distribution, healty status and vitality of sessile oak. • As a product of the Decision Support System a distribution model is under development, which describes the connection between climate conditions and the distribution of sessile oak. The case study shows, how climate data can be used for impact analyses in the forestry sector. Applying different climate change scenarios, the expected distribution of tree species can be simulated. Acknowledgements: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change, decision support system, distribution model, sessile oak

  5. Effects of climate change on regional energy systems focussing on space heating and cooling: A case study of Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hausl Stephan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change affects regions differently and therefore also climate change effects on energy systems need to be analyzed region specific. The objective of the study presented is to show and analyze these effects on regional energy systems following a high spatial resolution approach. Three regional climate scenarios are downscaled to a 1 km resolution and error corrected for three different testing regions in Austria. These climate data are used to analyze effects of climate change on heating and cooling demand until the year 2050. Potentials of renewable energies such as solar thermal, photovoltaic, ambient heat and biomass are also examined. In the last process step the outcomes of the previous calculations are fed into two energy system models, where energy system optimizations are executed, which provide information concerning optimal setups and operations of future energy systems. Due to changing climate strong changes for the energy demand structure are noticed; lower heat demand in winter (between -7 and -15% until 2050 and - strongly differing between regions - higher cooling demand in summer (up to +355%. Optimization results show that the composition of energy supply carriers is barely affected by climate change, since other developments such as refurbishment actions, price developments and regional biomass availabilities are more influencing within this context.

  6. The climate system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunetti M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An overview of what we know about the climate of the planet Earth up to 5.5 millions of years from now is presented first, with the air temperature in proximity to the surface as the main, and more feasible, parameter to be followed. The behavior of this parameter exhibits a distinct periodicity with more internal fluctuations. This overview prompts us to a description of the physical basis of the climate system, capable of explaining such fluctuations. The system is the star-planet, initially described as a lamp-billiard ball simple system. Astronomical causes affect the distance lamp-billiard ball (star-planet and the ball (Earth rotation axis orientation, while astronomical causes affect the intensity of radiation emitted from the lamp (Sun. The complication introduced by the atmosphere is then explained, essentially through the triatomic gas molecules, aerosol and clouds. Atmospheric composition affects incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared one. The compartments relevant for climate definition are examined: lithosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere including vegetation and humans. However due to space limitations the interactions between the different compartments are not treated here and we restrict ourselves to the treatment of the atmosphere.

  7. Effects of climate change on coastal groundwater systems: A modeling study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, Gualbert; Van Baaren, Esther S.; De Louw, Perry G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change in combination with increased anthropogenic activities will affect coastal groundwater systems throughout the world. In this paper, we focus on a coastal groundwater system that is already threatened by a relatively high seawater level: the low‐lying Dutch Delta. Nearly one third of t

  8. Climate system model, numerical simulation and climate predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Thanks to its work of past more than 20 years,a research team led by Prof.ZENG Qingcun and Prof.WANG Huijun from the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) has scored innovative achievements in their studies of basic theory of climate dynamics,numerical model development,its related computational theory,and the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models.Their work received a second prize of the National Award for Natural Sciences in 2005.

  9. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot acc

  10. Study on the change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and the mechanism of its impact on eastern Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yaoming

    2014-05-01

    As the Third Pole of the earth, the Tibetan Plateau is an important water source of Asia. The 10 major rivers in China and abroad developed from the Tibet Plateau and provide living and production water for 1/3 of the world's population in East Asia and South Asia. The powerful dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibet Plateau significantly affect the East Asian climate pattern, the process of the Asian monsoon and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Global change influences the processes of hydrosphere and cryosphere on the Tibetan Plateau, changes the ecosystem and environment within the plateau, and affects the socio-economic development and living condition of people in the region. In addition to that, through atmospheric circulation and water cycle, global change directly impacts water security and nature disaster protection in East Asia and surrounding nations. In order to study on the change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and the mechanism of its impact on eastern Asia, one Chinese national research programme was launched in 2010. The research progresses of the programme in the past four years will be introduced. The research progresses are including five parts: the establishment an integrated network platform for the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area "water - cryosphere -atmosphere -biology" observation; the study on the relation between the Tibet Plateau land surface-atmosphere interaction and atmospheric circulation anomalies; the study on the interactions among atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere on the Tibetan Plateau feeding back to climate change; the study on the Tibetan Plateau climate system feeding back to East Asian regional climate change and its mechanism; and the study on the Tibetan Plateau ecological and socio-economic systems responding to climate change and adaptations.

  11. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  12. A Drought Early Warning System Using System Dynamics Model and Seasonal Climate Forecasts: a case study in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu

    2016-04-01

    In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. Moreover, the model can also provide the information under certain emergency scenarios, such as the accident or failure of a water treatment plant. At last, the performance of the proposed method and the original water resource management method that the government used were also compared. Keyword: Water Resource Management, Hydrology, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Reservoir, Early Warning, Drought

  13. Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, E.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

  14. Climate system studies: final report to the U.S. Department of Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2000-03-01

    In this final report, we summarize research on climate variability and forcing mechanisms responsible for these changes. We report on research related to high elevation climate change, changes in the hydrological cycle and the seasonality of precipitation and on changes in climatic extremes. A comprehensive bibliography of research articles and books arising from this grant is included as an appendix.

  15. The expedition ARCTIC `96 of RV `Polarstern` (ARK XII) with the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS). Cruise report; Die Expedition ARCTIC `96 des FS `Polarstern` (ARK XII) mit der Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS). Fahrtbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Augstein, E.

    1997-11-01

    The multinational expedition ARCTIC `96 was carried out jointly by two ships, the German RV POLARSTERN and the Swedish RV ODEN. The research programme was developed by scientists from British, Canadian, Finish, German, Irish, Norwegian, Russian, Swedish and US American research institutions and universities. The physical programme on POLARSTERN was primarily designed to foster the Arctic Climte System Study (ACSYS) in the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Investigations during the recent years have provided substantial evidence that the Arctic Ocean and the adjacent shelf seas play a significant role in the thermohaline oceanic circulation and may therefore have a distinct influence on global climate. Consequently the main ACSYS goals are concerned with studies of the governing oceanic, atmospheric and hydrological processes in the entire Arctic region. (orig.) [Deutsch] Die Expedition ARCTIC `96 wurde von zwei Forschungsschiffen, der deutschen POLARSTERN und der schwedischen ODEN unter Beteiligung von Wissenschaftlern und Technikern aus Deutschland, Finnland, Grossbritannien, Irland, Kanada, Norwegen, Russland, Schweden und den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika durchgefuehrt. Die physikalischen Projekte auf der POLARSTERN dienten ueberwiegend der Unterstuetzung der Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) des Weltklimaforschungsprogramms, die auf die Erforschung der vorherrschenden ozeanischen, atmosphaerischen, kryosphaerischen und hydrologischen Prozesse der Arktisregion ausgerichtet ist. (orig.)

  16. The impact on climate of groundwater induced soil moisture memory : a study with a fully coupled WRF-LEAFHYDRO system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Gómez, Breogán; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater dynamics and its interactions with the land-atmosphere system are increasingly being taking into consideration in climate and ecosystem modeling studies. A shallow water table slows down drainage and affects soil moisture and potentially evapotranspiration (ET) and climate, particularly in water-limited environments. Our area of interest, the Iberian Peninsula, with a typical Mediterranean climate of dry growing season, is one of such regions where ET is largely constrained by water availability. We investigate how the induced memory on soil moisture by groundwater affects spring precipitation and summer temperatures there using a fully coupled WRF-LEAFHYDRO system. The LEAFHYDRO Land Surface Model includes groundwater dynamics with a realistic water table validated with hundreds of observations over Spain and Portugal. We perform two sets of long-term offline simulations, with and without groundwater forced by ERA-Interim and detailed precipitation analyses for the Iberian Peninsula. The corresponding fully coupled simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), using exactly the same grid, take initial conditions from the off-line simulations at the end of the winter and are run for spring and summer, when we expect the impact of ET on climate to be largest. After a dry winter, in the run with groundwater soils are considerably wetter in regions with shallow water table and WRF results indicate that during spring the impact on precipitation can be sizeable when synoptic conditions are favorable for convection. Increased ET in the summer due also to more moisture availability in the run with groundwater leads in general to cooler temperatures. These preliminary results highlight the important role of groundwater on climate and the advantages of a fully coupled hydrology-atmospheric modeling system.

  17. AMS Climate Studies: Improving climate literacy through undergraduate education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; Kiley, T. P., Jr.; Ruwe, E. E.

    2009-12-01

    In working to promote scientific literacy among the public, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has produced a suite of introductory college-level courses that engage students by investigating relevant topics in Earth science, and utilizing the most current, real-world environmental data. The newest of these courses, AMS Climate Studies, is a turnkey package which will be licensed by individual colleges for local offering in online, blended, or traditional lecture/lab settings. The course will place students in a dynamic learning environment where they will investigate Earth’s climate system using real-world data. This will allow the course to keep a strong focus on the science, while still addressing many of the societal impacts that draw the attention of today’s students. In this way, the course will serve as a great primer in preparing students to become responsible, scientifically-literate participants in discussions of climate science and climate change. Developed with major support from NASA, AMS Climate Studies will encourage students to investigate the atmosphere and world ocean as components of a larger Earth system. More than 500 colleges and universities throughout the United States have already offered AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies, after which AMS Climate Studies will be modeled. The learning system will consist of a fully-integrated set of printed and online learning materials focused around a brand new, hardcover 15-chapter textbook, Climate Studies: Introduction to Climate Science and an Investigations Manual with 30 lab-style activities that will emphasize the use of authentic science data. The package will also include a course website providing weekly Current Climate Studies activities along with access to environmental data streams, including an impressive suite of NASA and NOAA images and products. The development and testing of AMS Climate Studies is currently nearing completion. A number of college and university

  18. Recent Progresses in studies of variations and Anomalies of EAM Climate System and Formation Mechanism of Severe Climate Disasters in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Ronghui

    2009-01-01

    @@ The East Asian monsoon (EAM) system is an important circulation system in the global climate system, which features strong southwesterlies with wet air over East Asia in summer and northwesterlies with dry air over North China, Northeast China, Korea and Japan and northeasterlies along the coast of Southeast China (e.g., Tao and Chen). Influenced by the variations and anomalies of the EAM system, therefore, the climate in China is characterized with the most frequent drought and flood disasters in summer and cold surges in winter (e.g., Huang and Zhou 2002).

  19. A Study on the Management of Micropollutants in Water System Considering Climate Change and other Potential Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, the management polices of micropollutants (MPs) were reviewed and the future management strategy was discussed considering climate change and etc. In Korea, the investigation of drinking water has been actively carried out for the priority contaminants as well as MPs. Recently river and lake waters have been also examined for MPs. However, the coverage and depth of the investigation is limited. Moreover, climate change is likely to increase air, water temperature and it will affect the hydrological cycle. Such changes may increase the residual concentrations of MPs in water system. As water reuse increases, the residual MPs of the recycled water may create public concerns. Thus, in a viewpoint of the precautionary principle, more stringent management of MPs is recommended for the drinking water and the body-contact water use. For the surface water, more studies are necessary to understand the ecological risk by MPs

  20. A Study on the Management of Micropollutants in Water System Considering Climate Change and other Potential Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hojeong; Ahn, Jong Ho [Korea Environment Institute (KEI), Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Yongsuk [Korea University, Sejong (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-12-15

    In this study, the management polices of micropollutants (MPs) were reviewed and the future management strategy was discussed considering climate change and etc. In Korea, the investigation of drinking water has been actively carried out for the priority contaminants as well as MPs. Recently river and lake waters have been also examined for MPs. However, the coverage and depth of the investigation is limited. Moreover, climate change is likely to increase air, water temperature and it will affect the hydrological cycle. Such changes may increase the residual concentrations of MPs in water system. As water reuse increases, the residual MPs of the recycled water may create public concerns. Thus, in a viewpoint of the precautionary principle, more stringent management of MPs is recommended for the drinking water and the body-contact water use. For the surface water, more studies are necessary to understand the ecological risk by MPs.

  1. Design and Development of System Platform of "Study on Relationship between Natural Phenology and Climate Change" Based on WEB and GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study design and development of system platform of "study on relationship between natural phenology and climate change" based on WEB and GIS. [Method] Relied on the technologies of WEB and GIS, a set of system platform of "study on relationship between natural phenology and climate change" was developed based on the hybrid architecture of C/S (Client/Server) and B/S (Browser/Server). Moreover, its establishing process and functional module were detailedly introduced. [Resul...

  2. Co-Adapting Water Demand and Supply to Changing Climate in Agricultural Water Systems, A Case Study in Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Mainardi, M.; Arias Munoz, C.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

    2013-12-01

    Exponentially growing water demands and increasing uncertainties in the hydrologic cycle due to changes in climate and land use will challenge water resources planning and management in the next decade. Improving agricultural productivity is particularly critical, being this sector the one characterized by the highest water demand. Moreover, to meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades, even though water availability is expected to decrease due to climate change impacts. Agricultural systems are called to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crop patterns and the corresponding water demand, or maximizing the efficiency in the water supply modifying irrigation scheduling and adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques) in order to re-optimize the use of limited water resources. Although many studies have assessed climate change impacts on agricultural practices and water management, most of them assume few scenarios of water demand or water supply separately, while an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Moreover, current practices are generally established according to historical agreements and normative constraints and, in the absence of dramatic failures, the shift toward more efficient water management is not easily achievable. In this work, we propose to activate an information loop between farmers and water managers to improve the effectiveness of agricultural water management practices by matching the needs of the farmers with the design of water supply strategies. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). A distributed-parameter, dynamic model of the system allows to simulate crop growth and the final yield over a range of hydro-climatic conditions, irrigation strategies and water-related stresses. The spatial component of the

  3. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  4. A study on the effect of organizational climate on organizational commitment: A case study of educational system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahman Saeidipou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Building strong commitment among organizational employees plays an important role in reducing delays and displacement. It can also increase employee efficiency, employees' mental freshness and manifesting both organizational admirable targets and personal goals. The purpose of this study is to detect and to forecast the impact of organizational climate on level of organizational commitment among staff education in city of Kermanshah located in west part Iran. The survey designs questionnaires and collects necessary information using a descriptive survey. The statistical population includes all 921 employees who were either enrolled in administration level or work as teacher in all areas of city of Kermanshah. The study selects 300 individuals from the statistical population randomly. The proposed model of this paper uses factor analysis to determine the most important factors influencing organizational commitment and Cronbach alpha is used to validate the results. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the components of role and paying enough attention to goals, the variable organizational climate, and the whole variable dimensions of organizational commitment. The other observation is that there was a weak relationship with some components of social commitment, and there was not any significant relationship with other aspects. Results of multivariate regression analysis shows that there was a high correlation between organizational climate and social commitment (t-student=6.208.

  5. Climate Observing Systems: Data System Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2001-12-01

    Existing observing and data systems have provided considerable information about past climate variations and changes. The recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Research Council, and the USGCRP National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change are testaments to a vast array of knowledge. These reports also expose some serious deficiencies in our ability to discern past climate variations and change which lead to substantial uncertainties in key climate state, climate feedback, and climate forcing variables. How significant are these uncertainties? For climate trends that have our highest confidence, like the change in mean global surface temperature, the 95 percent confidence intervals amount to about two-thirds of the calculated change. With such large uncertainties it is exceedingly difficult to discern accelerated changes. For other variables, especially variables related to climate feedbacks and forcings (with exceptions for long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2 or CH4) or climate and weather extremes, we often have little or no information to discern trends or cannot objectively assess confidence intervals. Do we know how to reduce existing uncertainties? First and foremost, a climate observation oversight and monitoring capability is needed that tracks the gathering of the data, the processing system, and the performance of the observations, especially time-dependent biases. An organized capability does not now exist, but could be developed at a new and/or existing centers. This center(s) should then have the means and influence to fix problems and be able to establish requirements for new in-situ and satellite observing including related data systems. Such a capability should complement the following: (1) Climate observations from both space-based and in-situ platforms that are taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999 Adequacy of Climate

  6. Building America Case Study: Advanced Extended Plate and Beam Wall System in a Cold-Climate House, Mount Joy, Pennsylvania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-01-01

    This report presents the design and evaluation of a innovative wall system. This highly insulated (high-R) light-frame wall system for use above grade in residential buildings is referred to as Extended Plate & Beam (EP&B). The EP&B design is the first of its kind to be featured in a new construction test house (NCTH) for the DOE Building America program. The EP&B wall design integrates standard building methods and common building products to construct a high-R wall that minimizes transition risks and costs to builders. The EP&B design combines optimized framing with integrated rigid foam sheathing to increase the wall system's R-value and reduce thermal bridging. The foam sheathing is installed between the wall studs and structural wood sheathing. The exterior wood sheathing is attached directly to a framing extension formed by extended top and bottom plates. The exterior wood sheathing can dry to the exterior and provides bracing, a clear drainage plane and flashing surface for window and door openings, and a nailing surface for siding attachment. With support of the DOE Building America program, Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with Lancaster County Career and Technology Center (LCCTC) to build a NCTH in Lancaster, PA to demonstrate the EP&B wall design in a cold climate (IECC climate zone 5A). The results of the study confirmed the benefits of the systems and the viability of its integration into the house construction process.

  7. A Climate System Model, Numerical Simulation and Climate Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Qingcun; WANG Huijun; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    @@ The implementation of the project has lasted for more than 20 years. As a result, the following key innovative achievements have been obtained, ranging from the basic theory of climate dynamics, numerical model development and its related computational theory to the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models:

  8. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  9. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  10. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  11. Climate@Home: Utilizing Citizen Science for Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K.; Yang, C.; Li, Z.; Sun, M.; Li, J.; Xu, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has become a serious and urgent issue in the past decades (Stern N. 2007). It will influence many domains such as agriculture, economy, ecosystem, and others. To help scientists to simulate the climate change, NASA conducted a project, Climate@Home, to develop a cyberinfrastructure for running the modelE climate model. ModelE contains over 500 variables and needs many days to finish a 10 year analysis task. If scientists need to run 300 tasks, it may need about 3 years to complete the task using a single machine. As an exploratory study, an infrastructure was constructed to recruit citizen volunteers for harvesting computing resources from citizens based on the citizen science mechanism. However, there are challenges in order to build the infrastructure: 1) modelE is a Linux based model but volunteers may have different operating system platforms such as Windows, Apple OSX etc (Anderson et al. 2006); 2) modelE has big downloading file and generates big results file, how to download and upload files efficiently? 3) currently the task schedule uses first-come-fist-get mechanism, how to schedule task efficiently? We address these challenges with several designs: 1) virtual machines are used to package the modelE, an operating system and configured running environments; 2) Building FTPS based on users' spatiotemporal information for data downloading and uploading; 3) crafting the schedule system to grant tasks based on the volunteers spatiotemporal information and computing conditions such as CPU, memory and bandwidth. Key words: Volunteer Computing, Climate Change, Spatiotemporal, References: 1. Anderson, D. P., Christensen, C., & Allen, B. (2006, November). Designing a runtime system for volunteer computing. In SC 2006 Conference, Proceedings of the ACM/IEEE (pp. 33-33). IEEE. 2. Stern, N. N. H. (Ed.). (2007). The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge University Press.

  12. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  13. System Identification for Indoor Climate Control

    CERN Document Server

    M., A W; H., P W M; Steskens,

    2012-01-01

    The study focuses on the applicability of system identification to identify building and system dynamics for climate control design. The main problem regarding the simulation of the dynamic response of a building using building simulation software is that (1) the simulation of a large complex building is time consuming, and (2) simulation results often lack information regarding fast dynamic behaviour (in the order of seconds), since most software uses a discrete time step, usually fixed to one hour. The first objective is to study the applicability of system identification to reduce computing time for the simulation of large complex buildings. The second objective is to research the applicability of system identification to identify building dynamics based on discrete time data (one hour) for climate control design. The study illustrates that system identification is applicable for the identification of building dynamics with a frequency that is smaller as the maximum sample frequency as used for identificat...

  14. Estimating the efficiency of P/V systems under a changing climate - the case study of Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grillakis, Manolis; Panagea, Ioanna; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2014-05-01

    The effect of climate change on P/V output is studied for the region of Greece. Solar radiation and temperature data from 9 RCMs of ENSEMBLES EU FP6 project are used to estimate the effect of these two parameters on the future P/V systems output over Greece. Examining the relative contributions of temperature and irradiance, a significant reduction due to the temperature increase is projected which is however outweighed by the irradiance increase, resulting an overall output increase in photovoltaic systems. Nonetheless, in some cases the temperature increase is too large to be compensated by the increase irradiance resulting reduction of PV output up to 3. This is projected after 2050s for the eastern parts of the Greek mainland, Aegean islands and some areas in Crete. Results show that the PV output is projected to have an increasing trend in all regions of Greece until 2050, and a steeper increase trend further until 2100. Moreover, high resolution topographic information was combined to the PV output results, producing high resolution of favorability for future PV systems installation.

  15. Simulation study on bi-stability of cloud-rain system and cosmic ray influence on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusano, Kanya; Hasegawa, Koichi; Shima, Shin-ichiro

    2012-07-01

    Although it has been pointed out many times that there is the correlation between solar activity, such as the Schwabe (11 year) cycle and the Maunder-type minima, and climate variability, the mechanism whereby the sun may affect climate is not yet well understood. Svensmark and Friis-Christensen (1997) proposed that galactic cosmic ray may control cloud through the ionization of atmosphere and the ion-induced nucleation. Recently, Kirkby et al. (2011) indicated in basis of experiments with artificial cosmic ray that the ion-induced nucleation is possible in the atmosphere if some conditions for chemical compounds and temperature are satisfied. However, although the experimental data show that the ion-induced nucleation rate for 1.7 nm diameter cluster J _{1.7}=10 ^{-2} to 10 ^{1}cm ^{-3}s ^{-1}, it is not yet clear how this rate affects cloud and climate. In this study, aiming at clarifying how the cloud-rain system depends on the change in the formation rate of cloud condensation nuclear, we have performed a systematic simulation study using super-droplet cloud model. The super-droplet cloud model is a novel computational technique to calculate the macro- and micro-physics of clouds (Shima, Kusano et al. 2009). We have implemented the super-droplet method on the cloud resolving model CReSS (Tsuboki & Sakakibara 2006), and developed an add-on function to create aerosols dynamically. Using it, we have surveyed the quasi-equilibrium state of cloud-rain system for different formation rate of 30 nm diameter aerosol J _{30}. The initial and boundary conditions are given by the data-set of RICO (Rain In Cumulus over the Ocean) project. As the results of simulations for J _{30} from 10 ^{-6} to 10 ^{0} cm ^{-3}s ^{-1}, we find that the cloud water path remains about 5 gm ^{-2} when J _{30} is smaller than 10 ^{-3}cm ^{-3}s ^{-1}, but it quickly increases to 20 gm ^{-2} for J _{30}=10 ^{-2}cm ^{-3}s ^{-1} and it keeps the value for higher J _{30}. On the other hand, the

  16. Case-study of thermo active building systems in Japanese climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Rongling; Yoshidomi, Togo; Ooka, Ryozo;

    2015-01-01

    is entirely new in Japan. This paper introduces and evaluates TABS under Tokyo weather conditions to clarify the potential of use TABS in Japan. Cooling capacity of thermo active building systems used in an office building was evaluated by means of dynamic simulations. Two central rooms of the office were...

  17. Fine-Resolution Modeling of the Santa Cruz and San Pedro River Basins for Climate Change and Riparian System Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.; Volo, T. J.; Rivera, E. R.; Dominguez, F.; Meixner, T.

    2011-12-01

    This project is part of a multidisciplinary effort aimed at understanding the impacts of climate variability and change on the ecological services provided by riparian ecosystems in semiarid watersheds of the southwestern United States. Valuing the environmental and recreational services provided by these ecosystems in the future requires a numerical simulation approach to estimate streamflow in ungauged tributaries as well as diffuse and direct recharge to groundwater basins. In this work, we utilize a distributed hydrologic model known as the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the upper Santa Cruz and San Pedro basins with the goal of generating simulated hydrological fields that will be coupled to a riparian groundwater model. With the distributed model, we will evaluate a set of climate change and population scenarios to quantify future conditions in these two river systems and their impacts on flood peaks, recharge events and low flows. Here, we present a model confidence building exercise based on high performance computing (HPC) runs of the tRIBS model in both basins during the period of 1990-2000. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available data across the US-Mexico border on topography, land cover and soils obtained from analysis of remotely-sensed imagery and government databases. Meteorological forcing over the historical period is obtained from a combination of sparse ground networks and weather radar rainfall estimates. We then focus on a comparison between simulation runs using ground-based forcing to cases where the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model is used to specify the historical conditions. Two spatial resolutions are considered from the WRF model fields - a coarse (35-km) and a downscaled (10- km) forcing. Comparisons will focus on the distribution of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation and recharge and assess the value of the WRF coarse and downscaled products. These results provide confidence in

  18. Modeling the impact of climate change on sediment transport and morphology in coupled watershed-coast systems:A case study using an integrated approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Achilleas GSAMARAS; Christopher GKOUTITAS

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is an issue of major concern nowadays. Its impact on the natural and human environment is studied intensively, as the expected shift in climate will be significant in the next few decades. Recent experience shows that the effects will be critical in coastal areas, resulting in erosion and inundation phenomena worldwide. In addition to that, coastal areas are subject to"pressures"from upstream watersheds in terms of water quality and sediment transport. The present paper studies the impact of climate change on sediment transport and morphology in the aforementioned coupled system. The study regards a sandy coast and its upstream watershed in Chalkidiki, North Greece; it is based on: (a) an integrated approach for the quantitative correlation of the two through numerical modeling, developed by the authors, and (b) a calibrated application of the relevant models Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and PELNCON-M, applied to the watershed and the coastal zone, respectively. The examined climate change scenarios focus on a shift of the rainfall distribution towards fewer and more extreme rainfall events, and an increased frequency of occurrence of extreme wave events. Results indicate the significance of climatic pressures in wide-scale sediment dynamics, and are deemed to provide a useful perspective for researchers and policy planners involved in the study of coastal morphology evolution in a changing climate.

  19. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  20. Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Guyla I.; Susskind, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much

  1. Assessing transition trajectories towards a sustainable energy system: A case study on the Dutch transition to climate-neutral transport fuel chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suurs, R.A.A.; Hekkert, M.P.; Meeus, M.T.H.; Nieuwlaar, E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for the ex ante evaluation of technological trajectories. As a case we study the Dutch transport energy system and its transition to climate neutrality. Two technological trajectories are proposed: (i) a sequence of transition steps based on radical infrastructural chang

  2. Influence of upper ocean on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: studies by observation and NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Rahman, H.; Dhakate, A.; Saha, Subodh K.; Pentakota, S.; Gairola, R. M.

    2016-08-01

    This study explores the role played by ocean processes in influencing Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and compares the observed findings with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-coupled model Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The excess and deficit ISMR clearly brings out the distinct signatures in sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, thermocline and mixed layer depth over north Indian Ocean. CFSv2 is successful in simulating SSH anomalies, especially over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal region. CFSv2 captures observed findings of SSH anomalies during flood and drought (e.g., Rossby wave propagation which reaches western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during flood years, Rossby wave propagation which did not reach western BoB during drought). It highlights the ability of CFSv2 to simulate the basic ocean processes which governs the SSH variability. These differences are basically generated by upwelling and downwelling caused by the equatorial and coastal Kelvin and Rossby waves, thereby causing difference in SSH anomaly and thermocline, and subsequently modifying the convection centers, which dictates precipitation over the Indian subcontinent region. Since the observed SSH anomaly and thermal structure show distinct characteristic features with respect to strong and weak ISMR variability, the assimilation of real ocean data in terms of satellite products (like SSHA from AVISO/SARAL) bestow great promise for the future improvement.

  3. The importance of terrestrial weathering for climate system modelling on extended timescales: a study with the UVic ESCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brault, Marc-Olivier; Matthews, Damon; Mysak, Lawrence

    2016-04-01

    The chemical erosion of carbonate and silicate rocks is a key process in the global carbon cycle and, through its coupling with calcium carbonate deposition in the ocean, is the primary sink of carbon on geologic timescales. The dynamic interdependence of terrestrial weathering rates with atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations is crucial to the regulation of Earth's climate over multi-millennial timescales. However any attempts to develop a modeling context for terrestrial weathering as part of a dynamic climate system are limited, mostly because of the difficulty in adapting the multi-millennial timescales of the implied negative feedback mechanism with those of the atmosphere and ocean. Much of the earlier work on this topic is therefore based on box-model approaches, abandoning spatial variability for the sake of computational efficiency and the possibility to investigate the impact of weathering on climate change over time frames much longer than those allowed by traditional climate system models. As a result we still have but a rudimentary understanding of the chemical weathering feedback mechanism and its effects on ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric CO2. Here, we introduce a spatially-explicit, rock weathering model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We use a land map which takes into account a number of different rock lithologies, changes in sea level, as well as an empirical model of the temperature and NPP dependency of weathering rates for the different rock types. We apply this new model to the last deglacial period (c. 21000BP to 13000BP) as well as a future climate change scenario (c. 1800AD to 6000AD+), comparing the results of our 2-D version of the weathering feedback mechanism to simulations using only the box-model parameterizations of Meissner et al. [2012]. These simulations reveal the importance of two-dimensional factors (i.e., changes in sea level and rock type distribution) in the

  4. Solar-climatic statistical study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, R.E.

    1979-02-01

    The Solar-Climatic Statistical Study was performed to provide statistical information on the expected future availability of solar and wind power at various nationwide sites. Historic data (SOLMET), at 26 National Weather Service stations reporting hourly solar insolation and collateral meteorological information, were interrogated to provide an estimate of future trends. Solar data are global radiation incident on a horizontal surface, and wind data represent wind power normal to the air flow. Selected insolation and wind power conditions were investigated for their occurrence and persistence, for defined periods of time, on a monthly basis. Information of this nature are intended as an aid to preliminary planning activities for the design and operation of solar and wind energy utilization and conversion systems. Presented in this volume are probability estimates of solar insolation and wind power, alone and in combination, occurring and persisting at or above specified thresholds, for up to one week, for each of the 26 SOLMET stations. Diurnal variations of wind power were also considered. Selected probability data for each station are presented graphically, and comprehensive plots for all stations are provided on a set of microfiche included in a folder in the back of this volume.

  5. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  6. Organizational Climate, Services, and Outcomes in Child Welfare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisson, Charles; Green, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This study examines the association of organizational climate, casework services, and youth outcomes in child welfare systems. Building on preliminary findings linking organizational climate to youth outcomes over a 3-year follow-up period, the current study extends the follow-up period to 7 years and tests main, moderating and…

  7. An expressed sequence tag (EST library for Drosophila serrata, a model system for sexual selection and climatic adaptation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McGraw Elizabeth A

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The native Australian fly Drosophila serrata belongs to the highly speciose montium subgroup of the melanogaster species group. It has recently emerged as an excellent model system with which to address a number of important questions, including the evolution of traits under sexual selection and traits involved in climatic adaptation along latitudinal gradients. Understanding the molecular genetic basis of such traits has been limited by a lack of genomic resources for this species. Here, we present the first expressed sequence tag (EST collection for D. serrata that will enable the identification of genes underlying sexually-selected phenotypes and physiological responses to environmental change and may help resolve controversial phylogenetic relationships within the montium subgroup. Results A normalized cDNA library was constructed from whole fly bodies at several developmental stages, including larvae and adults. Assembly of 11,616 clones sequenced from the 3' end allowed us to identify 6,607 unique contigs, of which at least 90% encoded peptides. Partial transcripts were discovered from a variety of genes of evolutionary interest by BLASTing contigs against the 12 Drosophila genomes currently sequenced. By incorporating into the cDNA library multiple individuals from populations spanning a large portion of the geographical range of D. serrata, we were able to identify 11,057 putative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, with 278 different contigs having at least one "double hit" SNP that is highly likely to be a real polymorphism. At least 394 EST-associated microsatellite markers, representing 355 different contigs, were also found, providing an additional set of genetic markers. The assembled EST library is available online at http://www.chenowethlab.org/serrata/index.cgi. Conclusion We have provided the first gene collection and largest set of polymorphic genetic markers, to date, for the fly D. serrata. The EST

  8. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

    OpenAIRE

    B. Hingray; Mouhous, N.; Mezghani, A.; Bogner, K.; Schaefli, B.; Musy, A.

    2007-01-01

    International audience A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) cannot, however, be used to simulate such a large number of scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining future climate scenarios through a simple scaling methodology. The projections of sever...

  9. Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

    CERN Document Server

    Sudakov, Ivan; Golden, Kenneth M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo $-$ a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a simple sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point $-$ an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a nonlinear phase transition model for melt ponds, and bifurcation analysis of a simple climate model with ice - albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to a potential bifurcation point.

  10. Beyond Interdisciplinarity: Integrated Climate System Sciences at University of Hamburg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckmann, Aike; Eden, Carsten; Hachfeld, Berit; Harms, Ingo; Held, Hermann; Hort, Matthias

    2013-04-01

    We present the philosophy and implementation of a combined MSc and PhD study program in climate system sciences (SICCS) that bring together environmental physics, geoscience, biogeochemistry and climate related economic and social sciences. The philosophy of SICCS includes the perspective for both students and lectures to work on, to develop and to communicate an integrative "world map" of climate and earth science. We report about first results, difficulties and experiences after successful implementation of the program.

  11. Parameter sensitivity of climate models and climate driven ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.

    2006-01-01

    Uncertainty in the outcome of numerical models of physical and biological processes, such as the climate and ecological systems, is widely recognized. One contributing factor is uncertainty in model parameters. Because of this uncertainty, a range of model outcomes is usually given. This might obstr

  12. Management system, organizational climate and performance relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, B. D.

    1979-01-01

    Seven aerospace firms were investigated to determine if a relationship existed among management systems, organizational climate, and organization performance. Positive relationships were found between each of these variables, but a statistically significant relationship existed only between the management system and organizational climate. The direction and amount of communication and the degree of decentralized decision-making, elements of the management system, also had a statistically significant realtionship with organization performance.

  13. Precambrian evolution of the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J C

    1990-01-01

    Climate is an important environmental parameter of the early Earth, likely to have affected the origin and evolution of life, the composition and mineralogy of sedimentary rocks, and stable isotope ratios in sedimentary minerals. There is little observational evidence constraining Precambrian climates. Most of our knowledge is at present theoretical. Factors that must have affected the climate include reduced solar luminosity, enhanced rotation rate of the Earth, an area of land that probably increased with time, and biological evolution, particularly as it affected the composition of the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. Cloud cover is a major uncertainty about the early Earth. Carbon dioxide and its greenhouse effect are the factors that have been most extensively studied. This paper presents a new examination of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon as they may have changed between an Archean Earth deficient in land, sedimentary rocks, and biological activity, and a Proterozoic Earth much like the modern Earth, but lacking terrestrial life and carbonate-secreting plankton. Results of a numerical simulation of this transition show how increasing biological activity could have drawn down atmospheric carbon dioxide by extracting sedimentary organic carbon from the system. Increasing area of continents could further have drawn down carbon dioxide by encouraging the accumulation of carbonate sediments. An attempt to develop a numerical simulation of the carbon cycles of the Precambrian raises questions about sources and sinks of marine carbon and alkalinity on a world without continents. More information is needed about sea-floor weathering processes.

  14. A Computing Infrastructure for Supporting Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, C.; Bambacus, M.; Freeman, S. M.; Huang, Q.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Xu, C.; Wojcik, G. S.; Cahalan, R. F.; NASA Climate @ Home Project Team

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges facing us on the Earth planet in the 21st century. Scientists build many models to simulate the past and predict the climate change for the next decades or century. Most of the models are at a low resolution with some targeting high resolution in linkage to practical climate change preparedness. To calibrate and validate the models, millions of model runs are needed to find the best simulation and configuration. This paper introduces the NASA effort on Climate@Home project to build a supercomputer based-on advanced computing technologies, such as cloud computing, grid computing, and others. Climate@Home computing infrastructure includes several aspects: 1) a cloud computing platform is utilized to manage the potential spike access to the centralized components, such as grid computing server for dispatching and collecting models runs results; 2) a grid computing engine is developed based on MapReduce to dispatch models, model configuration, and collect simulation results and contributing statistics; 3) a portal serves as the entry point for the project to provide the management, sharing, and data exploration for end users; 4) scientists can access customized tools to configure model runs and visualize model results; 5) the public can access twitter and facebook to get the latest about the project. This paper will introduce the latest progress of the project and demonstrate the operational system during the AGU fall meeting. It will also discuss how this technology can become a trailblazer for other climate studies and relevant sciences. It will share how the challenges in computation and software integration were solved.

  15. Two-Way Interpretation about Climate Change: Preliminary Results from a Study in Select Units of the United States National Park System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forist, B. E.; Knapp, D.

    2014-12-01

    Much interpretation in units of the National Park System, conducted by National Park Service (NPS) rangers and partners today is done in a didactic, lecture style. This "one-way" communication runs counter to research suggesting that long-term impacts of park interpretive experiences must be established through direct connections with the visitor. Previous research in interpretation has suggested that interpretive experiences utilizing a "two-way" dialogue approach are more successful at facilitating long-term memories than "one-way" approaches where visitors have few, if any, opportunities to ask questions, offer opinions, or share interests and experiences. Long-term memories are indicators of connections to places and resources. Global anthropogenic change poses critical threats to NPS sites, resources, and visitor experiences. As climate change plays an ever-expanding role in public, political, social, economic, and environmental discourse it stands to reason that park visitors may also be interested in engaging in this discourse. Indeed, NPS Director Jonathan Jarvis stated in the agency's Climate Change Action Plan 2012 - 2014 that, "We now know through social science conducted in parks that our visitors are looking to NPS staff for honest dialogue about this critical issue." Researchers from Indiana University will present preliminary findings from a multiple park study that assessed basic visitor knowledge and the impact of two-way interpretation related to climate change. Observations from park interpretive program addressing climate change will be presented. Basic visitor knowledge of climate change impacts in the select parks as well as immediate and long-term visitor recollections will be presented. Select units of the National Park System in this research included Cape Cod National Seashore, Cape Hatteras National Seashore, North Cascades National Park, Shenandoah National Park, and Zion National Park.

  16. The West African monsoon: Contribution of the AMMA multidisciplinary programme to the study of a regional climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, T.; Janicot, S.; Redelsperger, J. L.; Parker, D. J.; Thorncroft, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The AMMA international project aims at improving our knowledge and understanding of the West African monsoon and its variability with an emphasis on daily-to-interannual timescales. AMMA is motivated by an interest in fundamental scientific issues and by the societal need for improved prediction of the WAM and its impacts on water resources, health and food security for West African nations. The West African monsoon (WAM) has a distinctive annual cycle in rainfall that remains a challenge to understand and predict. The location of peak rainfall, which resides in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the year, moves from the ocean to the land in boreal spring. Around the end of June there is a rapid shift in the location of peak rainfall between the coast and around 10°N where it remains until about the end of August. In September the peak rainfall returns equatorward at a relatively steady pace and is located over the ocean again by November. The fact that the peak rainfall migrates irregularly compared to the peak solar heating is due to the interactions that occur between the land, the atmosphere and the ocean. To gain a better understanding of this complex climate system, a large international research programme was launched in 2002, the biggest of its kind into environment and climate ever attempted in Africa. AMMA has involved a comprehensive field experiment bringing together ocean, land and atmospheric measurements, on timescales ranging from hourly and daily variability up to the changes in seasonal activity over a number of years. This presentation will focus on the description of the field programme and its accomplishments, and address some key questions that have been recently identified to form the core of AMMA-Phase 2.

  17. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  18. 7th International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change(ISCS) through the Eyes of a Trainee

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Karen K.Y.Shum

    2010-01-01

    @@ At the invitation of Dr.Dahe Qin,the president of ISCS and the Co-Chair of IPCC WGI,the Hong Kong Observatory has been obliged to participate and benefit from the International Seminar in Beijing,China on 19-30 July 2010.Seminar topics included atmospheric chemistry and climate effects of aerosol biogeochemical cycles,cryosphere and its role in the climate system and climate change,climate models and its application in climate change research,climate change adaptation and mitigation.Data is a common ground for these multi-disciplinary studies around the globe.

  19. Cloud attenuation studies of the six major climatic zones of Africa for Ka and V satellite system design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temidayo Victor Omotosho

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-GB X-NONE X-NONE Cloud cover statistics, cloud base and top height, cloud temperature, frequency of precipitation, freezing height, total cloud liquid water content (TCLWC and cloud attenuation data have been obtained for the six major climatic zones of Africa. The present results reveal a strong positive correlation between the monthly distribution of low cloud cover, cloud top height, cloud temperature, and frequency of precipitation in the six zones. The cumulative distribution of the TCLWC derived from radiosonde measurement in each climatic zone shows a departure from the TCLWC recommended by the ITU Study Group 3 data, with an exceedance percentage difference of 32% to 90% occurring 0.01% to 10% of the time. The underestimation of the TCLWC is greatest in the tropical rain forest. A comparison of the cloud attenuation cumulative distribution in the Ka and V bands reveals that the International Telecommunication Union – Region (ITU-R is an intergovernmental organization that develops rain model based on collected data around the world. This model underestimates the cloud attenuation in all of the six climatic zones by 2.0 dB and 4.7 dB for the arid Sahara desert, 1.3 dB and 3.0 dB in semi-arid North Africa, 1.3 dB and 1.5 dB in savannah North Africa, 2.0 dB and 3.6 dB in the tropical rain forest, 1.3 dB and 2.9 dB in savannah South Africa and 0.9 dB and 2.6 dB in semi-arid South Africa, respectively, at 30 and 50 GHz. Overall, the cloud attenuation in the tropical rain-forest zone is very high because of the high annual total cloud cover (98%, high annual frequency of precipitation (4.5, low annual clear sky amount (8%, high cloud depth (10,937 m, high 0°C isotherm height (4.7 km, high TCLWC (4.0 kg/m2 at 0.01% and low seasonal cloud base height (356 m.

  20. AGU Position Statement: Geoengineering the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Human responsibility for most of the well-documented increase in global average temperatures over the last half century is well established. Further greenhouse gas emissions, particularly of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, will almost certainly contribute to additional widespread climate changes that can be expected to cause major negative consequences for most nations.1 Three proactive strategies could reduce the risks of climate change: 1) mitigation: reducing emissions; 2) adaptation: moderating climate impacts by increasing our capacity to cope with them; and 3) geoengineering: deliberately manipulating physical, chemical, or biological aspects of the Earth system.2 This policy statement focuses on large-scale efforts to geoengineer the climate system to counteract the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

  1. Urban Climate Map System for Dutch spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Chao; Spit, Tejo; Lenzholzer, Sanda; Yim, Hung Lam Steve; Heusinkveld, Bert; van Hove, Bert; Chen, Liang; Kupski, Sebastian; Burghardt, René; Katzschner, Lutz

    2012-08-01

    Facing climate change and global warming, outdoor climatic environment is an important consideration factor for planners and policy makers because improving it can greatly contribute to achieve citizen's thermal comfort and create a better urban living quality for adaptation. Thus, the climatic information must be assessed systematically and applied strategically into the planning process. This paper presents a tool named Urban Climate Map System (UCMS) that has proven capable of helping compact cities to incorporate climate effects in planning processes in a systematic way. UCMS is developed and presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform in which the lessons learned and experience gained from interdisciplinary studies can be included. The methodology of UCMS of compact cities, the construction procedure, and the basic input factors - including the natural climate resources and planning data - are described. Some literatures that shed light on the applicability of UMCS are reported. The Municipality of Arnhem is one of Dutch compact urban areas and still under fast urban development and urban renewal. There is an urgent need for local planners and policy makers to protect local climate and open landscape resources and make climate change adaptation in urban construction. Thus, Arnhem is chosen to carry out a case study of UCMS. Although it is the first work of Urban Climatic Mapping in The Netherlands, it serves as a useful climatic information platform to local planners and policy makers for their daily on-going works. We attempt to use a quick method to collect available climatic and planning data and create an information platform for planning use. It relies mostly on literature and theoretical understanding that has been well practiced elsewhere. The effort here is to synergize the established understanding for a case at hand and demonstrate how useful guidance can still be made for planners and policy makers.

  2. Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between

  3. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  4. Observing the carbon-climate system

    CERN Document Server

    Schimel, David; Moore, Berrien; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Baker, David; Berry, Joe; Bowman, Kevin; Crisp, Phillipe Ciais David; Crowell, Sean; Denning, Scott; Duren, Riley; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gierach, Michelle; Gurney, Kevin; Hibbard, Kathy; Houghton, Richard A; Huntzinger, Deborah; Hurtt, George; Jucks, Ken; Kawa, Randy; Koster, Randy; Koven, Charles; Luo, Yiqi; Masek, Jeff; McKinley, Galen; Miller, Charles; Miller, John; Moorcroft, Paul; Nassar, Ray; ODell, Chris; Ott, Leslie; Pawson, Steven; Puma, Michael; Quaife, Tristan; Riris, Haris; Romanou, Anastasia; Rousseaux, Cecile; Schuh, Andrew; Shevliakova, Elena; Tucker, Compton; Wang, Ying Ping; Williams, Christopher; Xiao, Xiangming; Yokota, Tatsuya

    2016-01-01

    Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-climate feedbacks remain poorly quantified. The impact of these uncertainties on future climate are of increasing concern, especially in the wake of recent climate negotiations. Emissions, long concentrated in the developed world, are now shifting to developing countries, where the emissions inventories have larger uncertainties. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 50 years. Will this change in the future as the climate evolves? Concentrations of CH4, the 2nd most important greenhouse gas, which had apparently stabilized, have recently resumed their increase, but the exact cause for this is unknown. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably he...

  5. Climate Literacy: Progress in AMS Climate Studies Undergraduate Course in Meteorology Program at Jackson State University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    AMS Climate Studies is an introductory college-level course developed by the American Meteorological Society for implementation at undergraduate institutions nationwide and increasing involvement of under-represented groups The course places students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate Earth's climate system using real-world environmental data. The AMS Climate Studies course package consists of a textbook, investigations manual, course website, and course management system-compatible files. Instructors can use these resources in combinations that make for an exciting learning experience for their students. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project Workshop participation is on a first-come, first-serve basis as determined by the date-of-receipt of the License Order Form. To grow AMS Diversity Programs to their fullest extent, institutions are encouraged to nominate course instructors who did not previously attend Diversity Project workshops. Until three months before the workshop, two-thirds of the workshop positions would be reserved for institutions new to AMS Diversity Projects. The AMS five day course implementation workshop was held in Washington, DC, during May 24-29, 2012. It covered essential course topics in climate science and global climate change, and strategies for course implementation. Talks would feature climate science and sustainability experts from Federal agencies and area research institutions, such as NASA, NOAA, University of Maryland, Howard University, George Mason University, and other Washington, DC, area institutions. The workshop would also include visits to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. JSU Meteorology Program will be offering AMS Climate Studies undergraduate course under MET 210: Climatology in spring 2014. AMS Climate Studies is offered as a 3 credit hour laboratory course with 2 lectures and 1 lab sessions per week. Although this course places

  6. Adapting to climate change in a forest-based land use system. A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshingkar, P.; Bradley, P.N.; Chadwick, M.J.; Leach, G. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden); Kaul, O.N.; Banerjee, S.P.; Singh, B.; Kanetkar, R. [Tata Energy Research Inst., New Delhi (India)

    1997-12-31

    Current climate models show an increase of 3 deg C by year 2100 for the state of Himachal Pradesh. The change in rainfall is difficult to predict, a range of -20% to +20% is suggested from different models. Dynamic vegetation modelling shows that under moderate climatic change there could be an 11% increase in the total area under tree cover in Himachal Pradesh. There will be a north-eastwards migration of forest types as cold habitat biomes are replaced by warm weather species. Current anthropogenic pressure from livestock management activities, unsustainable forest product exploitation and habitat fragmentation will probably outweigh any direct impacts of climate change on vegetation. Consequently, the change in the area under different forest types and the species composition within these forest types will differ from model predictions. It is likely that more competitive and robust species such as Chir Pine and Blue Pine will survive and those species which are already overexploited such as the oaks and Deodar will become more endangered. Sustainable adaption strategies should aim at reducing the pressures from subsistence and commercial activities on forests: ongoing efforts in participatory forest management should be strengthened to reflect the interests of various stakeholders. The resilience of forest ecosystems to climate change can also be increased by identifying and planting tree species which can tolerate a wider range of climatic conditions. This will require government and donor commitment to invest in building the necessary institutional and research capacity 147 refs, 42 figs, 12 tabs

  7. DataStreme Earth's Climate System: Building a Climate Literate Society through Effective Partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    Effective partnerships are key to increasing climate and overall environmental literacy. Financial support from NSF, NASA, and NOAA has allowed the American Meteorological Society (AMS) to offer DataStreme courses for almost 20 years. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. A long-standing partnership with State University of New York's The College at Brockport gives teachers the opportunity to receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits upon successful completion of each DataStreme course and construction of a Plan of Action for educational peer-training. DataStreme ECS investigates the fundamental science of Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. The course provides participants with the knowledge to make informed climate decisions. In fact, according to a recent three-year study conducted by AMS, 98% of DataStreme ECS participants reported an increase in environmental literacy as a result of the course. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and ECS content has been improved because of AMS partnerships with NOAA and NASA. Specifically, hundreds of NASA and NOAA scientists and faculty from numerous institutions both domestic and abroad have contributed and reviewed DataStreme ECS content. Additional collaborations with Consortium for Ocean Leadership and the U.S. Ice Drilling Program greatly improved the course's paleoclimate content. Looking ahead, the Climate Resilience Toolkit from NOAA's Climate Program Office will further bolster the course this fall. These partnerships have resulted in a powerful, content-rich climate science course for K-12 teachers, building the foundation to a climate literate society.

  8. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  9. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  10. Climate wise case study compendium: Report 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    This case study compendium is one of several Climate Wise tools available to help interested companies identify cost-effective options. Climate Wise, a private-public partnership program, is a key Federal initiative to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.

  11. Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in Developing Countries: A Generalized Framework and a Feasibility Study in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrice G. Renaud

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystems and therefore people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes have direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes is affecting the vulnerability of water resources. The concept of ‘vulnerability’ is not straightforward as there is no universally accepted approach for assessing vulnerability. In this study, we review the evolution of approaches to vulnerability assessment related to water resources. From the current practices, we identify research gaps, and approaches to overcome these gaps a generalized assessment framework is developed. A feasibility study is then presented in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB. The results of the feasibility study identify the current main constraints (e.g., lack of institutional coordination and opportunities (e.g., adaptation of LBRB. The results of this study can be helpful for innovative research and management initiatives and the described framework can be widely used as a guideline for the vulnerability assessment of water resources systems, particularly in developing countries.

  12. Improvements to AMS Pre-College Programs: Results of a Self-Study on DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, M. N.; Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; McGinnis, J. R.; Nugnes, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society (AMS) believes that all teachers should be earth science literate. To achieve this, the AMS Education Program offers content-rich, professional development courses for precollege teachers in the geosciences. During the Fall and Spring semesters, AMS partners with NOAA, NASA and SUNY Brockport to offer DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System. These courses are delivered to small groups of K-12 teachers through Local Implementation Teams (LITs) in nearly all 50 states, with twice-weekly online study materials, weekly mentoring, and several face-to-face meetings, supplemented by a provided textbook and investigations manual. Upon completion of each course, teachers receive three free graduate credits from SUNY Brockport. In 2010, AMS embarked on a comprehensive review to assess the program's practices and impacts. A significant aspect of the self-study was a case study of the AMS DataStreme LIT located in Wisconsin. Lead by an external evaluator, the focus of the study was to gain insight into the AMS DataStreme Model and its affect on knowledge growth and pedagogical development for K-12 teacher participants and their instructors. In particular, environmental literacy in atmospheric science, oceanography, and climate science was examined. The study also tracked the number of DataStreme courses offered in areas with groups traditionally underrepresented in science. In Spring 2011, 47% of DataStreme Atmosphere participants and 38% of DataStreme Ocean participants worked in schools with more than 25% minority student population. Data was retrieved using several different methods. The external evaluator conducted phone interviews with the LIT instructors and participating K-12 teachers, and an end-of-course survey data was collected and examined. Preliminary results look extremely favorable. When the participants were asked to what extent their participation in DataStreme Earth's Climate System increased their

  13. Energy saving systems in hot humid climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadjilambi, A.; D'Aquilo, A.; Rodenberg, O.

    2014-01-01

    This "designers' manual" is made during the TIDO-course AR0533 Innovation & Sustainability. The aim of this manual is the description and comparison of several systems and strategies for cooling buildings in hot humid climates. To cool down a building you need to move the energy from a space or fro

  14. Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maestas, A.M.; Jones, L.A.

    2005-03-18

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks about climate change for host communities close to the research sites. A kiosk for the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) community was installed at the Iupiat Heritage Center in 2003, and a kiosk for the Tropical Western Pacific locales will be installed in 2005. The kiosks feature interviews with local community elders, regional agency officials, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program scientists, which highlight both research and local observations of some aspects of environmental and climatic change in the Arctic and Pacific. The kiosks offer viewers a unique opportunity to learn about the environmental concerns and knowledge of respected community elders, and to also understand state-of-the-art climate research. An archive of interviews from the communities will also be distributed with supplemental lessons and activities to encourage teachers and students to compare and contrast climate change studies and oral history observations from two distinct locations. The U.S. Department of Energy's ACRF supports education and outreach efforts for communities and schools located near its sites. ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks at the request of the communities to provide an opportunity for the public to learn about climate change from both scientific and indigenous perspectives. Kiosks include interviews with ARM scientists and provide users with basic information about climate change studies as well as interviews with elders and community leaders

  15. Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling. PMID:26556581

  16. Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

  17. Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

    2016-01-01

    We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

  18. Analysis of the relationships between esophageal cancer cases and climatic factors using a Geographic Information System (GIS): a case study of Ardabil province in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahari, Saeid Sadeghieh; Agdam, Fridoon Babaei; Amani, Firouz; Yazdanbod, Abbas; Akhghari, Leyla

    2013-01-01

    Esophageal cancer is a mjaor health problems in many parts of the world. A geographical information system (GIS) allows investigation of the geographical distribution of diseases. The purpose of the present study was to explore the relationship between esophageal cancer and effective climatic factors using GIS. The dispersion distribution and the relationship between environmental factors effective on cancer were measured using Arc GIS. The highest degree of spread was in Germi town and the least was in Ardabil city. There was a significant relationship between effective environmental factors and esophageal cancer in Ardabil province. The results indicated that environmental factors probably are influential in determining the incidence of esophageal cancer. Also, these results can be considered as a window to future comprehensive research on esophageal cancer and related risk factors. PMID:23679321

  19. New Whole-House Solutions Case Study: Advanced Extended Plate and Beam Wall System in a Cold-Climate House

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-02-10

    A zero energy ready home was recently completed that features an innovative wall system. This highly insulated (high-R) light-frame wall system, called the extended plate and beam, is for use above grade in residential buildings. The Building America research team Home Innovation Research Labs featured this system in a new construction test house.

  20. Operating Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, S.

    2002-12-01

    Population and industrial growth has resulted in intense demands on the quantity and quality of water resources worldwide. Moreover, climate change/variability is making a growing percentage of the earth's population vulnerable to extreme weather events (drought and flood). The 1996 Saguenay flood, 1997 Red River flood, the 1998 ice storm, and recent droughts in prairies are few examples of extreme weather events in Canada. Rising economic prosperity, growth in urban population, aging infrastructure, and a changing climate are increasing the vulnerability of Canadians to even more serious impacts. This growing threat can seriously undermine the social and economic viability of the country. Our ability to understand the impacts of climate change/variability on water quantity, quality, and its distribution in time and space can prepare us for sustainable management of this precious resource. The sustainability of water resources, over the medium to long-term, is critically dependent on the ability to manage (plan and operate) water resource systems under a more variable and perhaps warmer future climate. Studying the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources is complex and challenging. It is further complicated by the fact that impacts vary with time and are different at different locations. This study deals with the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in a portion of the Red River Basin in Canada, both in terms of change in quantity and spatial-temporal distribution. A System Dynamics model is developed to describe the operation of the Shellmouth Reservoir located on the Red River in Canada. The climate data from Canadian Global Coupled Model, CGCM1 is used. The spatial system dynamics approach, based on distributed parameter control theory, is used to model the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in time and space. A decision support system is developed to help reservoir operators and decision makers in

  1. Climate change adaptation options in rainfed upland cropping systems in the wet tropics: A case study of smallholder farms in North-West Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touch, Van; Martin, Robert John; Scott, Jeannette Fiona; Cowie, Annette; Liu, De Li

    2016-11-01

    While climate change is confirmed to have serious impacts on agricultural production in many regions worldwide, researchers have proposed various measures that farmers can apply to cope with and adapt to those changes. However, it is often the case that not every adaptation measure would be practical and adoptable in a specific region. Farmers may have their own ways of managing and adapting to climate change that need to be taken into account when considering interventions. This study aimed to engage with farmers to: (1) better understand small-holder knowledge, attitudes and practices in relation to perceived or expected climate change; and (2) document cropping practices, climate change perceptions, constraints to crop production, and coping and adaptation options with existing climate variability and expected climate change. This study was conducted in 2015 in Sala Krau village near Pailin (12°52'N, 102°45'E) and Samlout (12°39'N, 102°36'E) of North-West Cambodia. The methods used were a combination of focus group discussions and one-on-one interviews where 132 farming households were randomly selected. We found that farmers were conscious of changes in climate over recent years, and had a good understanding of likely future changes. While farmers are aware of some practices that can be modified to minimize risk and cope with anticipated changes, they are reluctant to apply them. Furthermore; there are no government agricultural extension services provided at the village level and farmers have relied on each other and other actors in the value chain network for information to support their decision-making. There is a lack of knowledge of the principles of conservation agriculture that urgently require agricultural extension services in the region to build farmer ability to better cope and adapt to climate change.

  2. Climate change adaptation options in rainfed upland cropping systems in the wet tropics: A case study of smallholder farms in North-West Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touch, Van; Martin, Robert John; Scott, Jeannette Fiona; Cowie, Annette; Liu, De Li

    2016-11-01

    While climate change is confirmed to have serious impacts on agricultural production in many regions worldwide, researchers have proposed various measures that farmers can apply to cope with and adapt to those changes. However, it is often the case that not every adaptation measure would be practical and adoptable in a specific region. Farmers may have their own ways of managing and adapting to climate change that need to be taken into account when considering interventions. This study aimed to engage with farmers to: (1) better understand small-holder knowledge, attitudes and practices in relation to perceived or expected climate change; and (2) document cropping practices, climate change perceptions, constraints to crop production, and coping and adaptation options with existing climate variability and expected climate change. This study was conducted in 2015 in Sala Krau village near Pailin (12°52'N, 102°45'E) and Samlout (12°39'N, 102°36'E) of North-West Cambodia. The methods used were a combination of focus group discussions and one-on-one interviews where 132 farming households were randomly selected. We found that farmers were conscious of changes in climate over recent years, and had a good understanding of likely future changes. While farmers are aware of some practices that can be modified to minimize risk and cope with anticipated changes, they are reluctant to apply them. Furthermore; there are no government agricultural extension services provided at the village level and farmers have relied on each other and other actors in the value chain network for information to support their decision-making. There is a lack of knowledge of the principles of conservation agriculture that urgently require agricultural extension services in the region to build farmer ability to better cope and adapt to climate change. PMID:27479240

  3. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  4. Subtropical atlantic climate studies: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, R L; Maul, G A; Chew, F; Wilson, W D; Busheell, M; Mayer, D; Leaman, K; Schott, F; Lee, T; Zantopp, R; Larsen, J C; Sanford, T B

    1985-01-18

    This report is an introduction to the accompanying collection of reports that present the results of a 2-year period of intensive monitoring of the Florida Current. Both direct observing systems (ship-deployed current profilers and moored current meters) and indirect observing systems (coastal tide gauge stations, bottom pressure gauge arrays, a submarine cable, acoustic arrays, and radar installations) were used to measure temperature and volume transport. PMID:17742098

  5. Chemical feedbacks in climate sensitivity studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietmüller, Simone; Ponater, Michael; Sausen, Robert

    2013-04-01

    Interactively coupled climate chemistry models extend the number of feedback mechanisms in climate change simulations by allowing a variation of several radiatively actice chemical tracers that are prescribed in conventional climate models. Different perturbation experiments including chemical feedbacks were performed using the chemistry-climate model system EMAC coupled to the mixed layer ocean model MLO. The influence of the chemical feedbacks O3, CH4 and N2O on climate response and climate sensitivity is quantified for a series of CO2-perturbation simulations: Equilibrium climate sensitivity is dampened, if chemical feedbacks are included. In case of a CO2 doubling simulation chemical feedbacks decrease climate sensitivity by -3.6% and in case of a 4*CO2 simulation by -8.1%. Analysis of the chemical feedbacks reveals, that the negative feedback of ozone, mainly the feedback of stratospheric ozone, is responsible for this dampening. The radiative feedbacks of CH4 and N2O are negligible, mainly because the model system does not allow interactive emission feedbacks at the Earth's surface for these gases. The feedback of physical parameters is significantly modified by the presence of chemical feedbacks. In case of the CO2-perturbation experiments the negative stratospheric ozone feedback is accompanied by a negative stratospheric H2O feedback change of the same order of magnitude. So the dampening effect of the direct O3 radiative feedback is enhanced. A non-linearity in the damping is found with increasing CO2 concentrations. Reasons are the nonlinear feedbacks of ozone, temperature, and stratospheric water vapor. Additional 6*CO2 simulations with and without chemical feedbacks included show, that the presence of chemic feedbacks helps to prevent a runaway greenhouse effect, as the O3 distribution can react to the upward shift of the tropopause. Also experiments driven by anthropogenic NOx- and CO-emissions were performed, where chemically active trace gases act

  6. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use

  7. Ceiling-mounted personalized ventilation system integrated with a secondary air distribution system - a human response study in hot and humid climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bin, Yang; Sekhar, S.C.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor

    2010-01-01

    The benefits of thermal comfort and indoor air quality with personalized ventilation (PV) systems have been demonstrated in recent studies. One of the barriers for wide spread acceptance by architects and HVAC designers has been attributed to challenges and constraints faced in the integration of...... PV systems with the work station. A newly developed ceiling-mounted PV system addresses these challenges and provides a practical solution while retaining much of the apparent benefits of PV systems. Assessments of thermal environment, air movement, and air quality for ceiling-mounted PV system were...... performed with tropically acclimatized subjects in a Field Environmental Chamber. Thirty-two subjects performed normal office work and could choose to be exposed to four different PV airflow rates (4, 8, 12, and 16 L/s), thus offering themselves a reasonable degree of individual control. Ambient...

  8. Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Denman, Kenneth L.; Brasseur , Guy; Chidthaisong, Amnat; Ciais, Philippe; Cox, Peter M.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Hauglustaine, Didier; Heinze, Christoph; Holland, Elisabeth; Jacob , Daniel; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ramachandran, Srikanthan; Leite da Silva Dias, Pedro; Wofsy, Steven C.; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2007-10-01

    The Earth's climate is determined by a number of complex connected physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the atmosphere, land and ocean. The radiative properties of the atmosphere, a major controlling factor of the Earth's climate, are strongly affected by the biophysical state of the Earth's surface and by the atmospheric abundance of a variety of trace constituents. These constituents include long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), as well as other radiatively active constituents such as ozone and different types of aerosol particles. The composition of the atmosphere is determined by processes such as natural and anthropogenic emissions of gases and aerosols, transport at a variety of scales, chemical and microphysical transformations, wet scavenging and surface uptake by the land and terrestrial ecosystems, and by the ocean and its ecosystems. These processes and, more generally the rates of biogeochemical cycling, are affected by climate change, and involve interactions between and within the different components of the Earth system. These interactions are generally nonlinear and may produce negative or positive feedbacks to the climate system. An important aspect of climate research is to identify potential feedbacks and assess if such feedbacks could produce large and undesired responses to perturbations resulting from human activities. Studies of past climate evolution on different time scales can elucidate mechanisms that could trigger nonlinear responses to external forcing. The purpose of this chapter is to identify the major biogeochemical feedbacks of significance to the climate system, and to assess current knowledge of their magnitudes and trends. Specifically, this chapter will examine the relationships between the physical climate system and the land surface, the carbon cycle, chemically reactive atmospheric gases and aerosol

  9. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L.N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jöhnk, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere–land surface–lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simu

  10. NASA's climate data system primer, version 1.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Closs, James W.; Reph, Mary G.; Olsen, Lola M.

    1989-01-01

    This is a beginner's manual for NASA's Climate Data System (NCDS), an interactive scientific information management system that allows one to locate, access, manipulate, and display climate-research data. Additional information on the use of the system is available from the system itself.

  11. Climatization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grant, Stephen; Tamason, Charlotte Crim; Jensen, Peter Kjær Mackie

    2015-01-01

    by climate change, in order to reach an intended goal or to distractthe discussion from the real problem which might have a different root course than caused bythe climate change effects. The implications of climatization are currently unclear – particularly to what extent climatizinga disaster might......In recent years, there has been a developing trend of labelling some disasters as ‘climatechange disasters’. In doing so, a discursive phenomenon can emerge that the authors havecoined ‘climatization’ which is specified as framing a disastrous event or degraded environmentalcondition as caused...... in the context of Bangladesh – a country that is expectedto be among the worst affected by climate change and a country in which some peopleclaim the effects of climate change can already be seen. A qualitative field study whichincluded key informant interviews, focus group discussions and a literature review...

  12. Sensitivity of Future U.S. Water Shortages to Socioeconomic and Climate Drivers: A Case Study in Georgia Using an Integrated Human-Earth System Modeling Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Kyle, G. Page; Liu, Lu; McJeon, Haewon C.; Mundra, Anupriya; Patel, Pralit L.; Rice, Jennie S.; Voisin, Nathalie

    2016-01-06

    One of the most important interactions between humans and climate is in the demand and supply of water. Humans withdraw, use, and consume water and return waste water to the environment for a variety of socioeconomic purposes, including domestic, commercial ,and industrial use, production of energy resources and cooling thermal-electric power plants, and growing food, fiber, and chemical feedstocks for human consumption. Uncertainties in the future human demand for water and in the future impacts of climatic change on water supplies are expected to impinge on policy decisions at the international, national, regional, and local level, but until recently tools were not available to assess the uncertainties surrounding these decisions. This paper demonstrates the use of a multi-model framework in a structured sensitivity analysis to project and quantify uncertainty in deficits in future surface water in the context of climate and socioeconomic change for all U.S. states and sub-basins. The framework treats all sources of water demand and supply consistently from the world to local level. The paper features an illustrative case study of a river basin in Georgia within the South Atlantic-Gulf Basin. Despite a substantial climate-related uncertainty in water supplies, the uncertainty with the largest impact on deficits was identified as growth of irrigation demand. Potential adaptive responses are discussed.

  13. Big Data and Data Models for Climate System Energetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillmore, D. W.; Habermann, T.; Goedecke, W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Multi-decade satellite missions, such as the NASA CERES mission designed to place observational constraints on the distribution of reflected solar radiation and emitted thermal radiation, present a significant challenge both in the analysis of heterogeneous Big Data and in data continuity. The NASA CERES EBAF dataset is a part of a broader effort to increase the usability of satellite observational data for the climate modeling community. Issues of accessibility, consistency, and reproducibility are paramount. Here we describe the transformation of CERES measurements from source to high level data products intended for direct use by the climate community. At each stage we examine data storage and processing patterns, metadata and potential challenges in reproducibility. The spatial distribution of net energy uptake and transport in the climate system, and its evolution over interannual and decadal time scales, is fundamental to the development of Earth system models. The workflow begins with the CERES footprint radiance seen by a polar orbiter, to the conversion of radiance to radiometric fluxes based on scene identification from MODIS and VIIRS imagery, followed by diurnal interpolation through the use of geostationary satellite imagery and eventually to the creation of high level gridded data products, the ultimate being the Energy Balanced and Filled flux product for direct comparison to climate models. Based on this CERES case study we try to anticipate future questions the may arise in the context of these massive satellite data collections, and what new data models may facilitate future data analysis.

  14. Fast adjustment of the climate system to changes in atmospheric CO2 and solar radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.; Bala, G.

    2011-12-01

    A key issue in the study of global climate change is the climate response to external forcing. When radiative forcing is applied to the climate system, the climate system starts to respond, resulting in changes in temperature and other fields. A new quasi-equilibrium climate state is achieved when the global mean net energy balance at the top-of-atmosphere returns to zero. The adjustment of the climate system is governed by different processes on different timescales. Within days to months, the climate system adjusts mainly to the imposed forcing and the change of land surface temperature. On longer timescale of years to centuries, when the ocean temperature starts to respond, changes in sea surface temperature exert a strong control on the adjustment of the climate system. By performing ensemble simulations using Hadley Center climate model, HadCM3L, we investigate climate system response to the applied forcing in the forms of additional atmospheric carbon dioxide and an increase in solar insolation. Both carbon dioxide and solar forcing affects the Earth's radiation balance and carbon dioxide also affects the climate system through its impact on plant stomata. We focus on the daily evolution of climate response within a timescale of one month over land and oceans. We will provide a mechanistic understanding of why increasing atmospheric CO2 causes a reduction in global-mean precipitation in the absence of sea surface temperature change. We will also discuss the adjustment of radiative forcing and the usefulness in radiative forcing as a predictor of equilibrium climate change. A discussion of the climate response from daily to millennium timescale will also be presented.

  15. Adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change: A socio-technical systems perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chappin, E.J.L.; Van der Lei, T.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect how society will function in this century. Because climate change effects may be severe, a next step is to study not only the effects on natural systems, but also the effects on built infrastructure systems and, in response to anticipated effects, the adaptation of

  16. Multi-System and Compound-Specific Isotopic Study of Neogene Vegetation and Climate Changes in the Siwalik Strata, Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, P. C.; Gani, M. R.; Huang, Y.; Gani, N. D.

    2014-12-01

    Despite many studies, causes of the late Neogene vegetation and climate change in the Siwalik succession deposited in the Himalayan foreland basin are still controversial. To render plausible mechanisms of C4 grass expansion replacing C3 trees, we applied compound specific isotope analysis of lipid biomarkers preserved in mudstones and paleosols of the Nepal Siwalik. We investigate δ13C (vegetation proxy), δD (precipitation proxy) and brGDGTs (mean annual air temperature proxy) of the sedimentary strata deposited in a continental fluvial environment. Samples were collected from various river sections of the Nepal Siwalik to document temporal as well as lateral (along east-west tectonic-strike) variations in vegetation and climate shift. Published paleomagnetic ages of the region provides age constrain of the studied deposits, which range in age from 16 Ma to 2 Ma. This is the first study that provides compound-specific isotopic data and paleotemperatures of the Siwalik strata in the region. As shown by δ13C values, C4 vegetation (grasses) likely started to expand around 6.5 Ma and became highly dominated in 5.2 Ma. Increased precipitation, likely due to monsoonal intensification, is recorded in δD data around this interval of vegetation shift. brGDGTs data revealed an intriguing cyclic (~2 Ma cycle) variation of paleotemperatures. Integration and further analyses of these key proxy data are ongoing. Key words: monsoon, Nepal Siwalik, late Neogene, vegetation and climate shift, paleotemperature.

  17. Solar Powered Automobile Interior Climate Control System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Richard T. (Inventor)

    2003-01-01

    There is provided a climate control system for a parked vehicle that includes a solar panel, thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers. The solar panel can serve as the sole source of electricity for the system. The system affords convenient installation and removal by including solar panels that are removably attached to the exterior of a vehicle. A connecting wire electrically connects the solar panels to a housing that is removably mounted to a partially opened window on the vehicle. The thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers are included within the housing. The thermostatic switch alternates the direction of the current flow through the thermoelectric coolers to selectively heat or cool the interior of the vehicle. The interior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with interior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an interior fan. Similarly, the exterior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with exterior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an exterior fan.

  18. Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

  19. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  20. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes...

  1. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a cloud-enabled web-service system that empowers physics-based, multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks. The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the observational datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation, (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs, and (3) ECMWF reanalysis outputs for several environmental variables in order to supplement observational datasets. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, (4) the calculation of difference between two variables, and (5) the conditional sampling of one physical variable with respect to another variable. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use, avoiding the hassle of local software installation and environment incompatibility. CMDA will be used as an educational tool for the summer school organized by JPL's Center for Climate Science in 2014. In order to support 30+ simultaneous users during the school, we have deployed CMDA to the Amazon cloud environment. The cloud-enabled CMDA will provide each student with a virtual machine while the user interaction with the system will remain the same

  2. CLIMESCO: evolution of cropping systems as affected by climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Ventrella

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this number of Italian Journal of Agronomy, seventeen scientific papers are published on the main results of the project CLIMESCO. This project was supported by three Italian Ministries (“Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Università e della Ricerca”, “Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali” and “Ministero dell'Ambiente e della tutela del territorio e del Mare” in the framework of “Fondo Integrativo Speciale Ricerca” (FISR, Special Integrated Research Fund. Most recent studies based on observed data and simulations of future climate conditions showed that the global increase of temperatures is most likely due to the increased concentration of Green House Gases. The effect of warming is unequally distributed around the globe, with some areas more sensitive to climate change than others, as the Mediterranean region. Climate change over this region is shown to be characterized by increasing temperatures and by relatively large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events for both temperature and rainfall. The agricultural and food systems represent one of the most sensitive and vulnerable sectors of the area....

  3. Amplified Feedback Mechanism of the Forests-Aerosols-Climate System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hede

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely has effects on vegetation so that trees grow faster due to carbon dioxide fertilization (a higher partial pressure increases the rate of reactions with Rubisco during photosynthesis and that trees can be established in new territories in a warmer climate. This has far-reaching significance for the climate system mainly due to a number of feedback mechanisms still under debate. By simulating the vegetation using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena guess dynamic vegetation model, a territory in northern Russia is studied during three different climate protocols assuming a doubling of carbon dioxide levels compared to the year 1975. A back of the envelope calculation is made for the subsequent increased levels of emissions of monoterpenes from spruce and pine forests. The results show that the emissions of monoterpenes at the most northern latitudes were estimated to increase with over 500% for a four-degree centigrade increase protocol. The effect on aerosol and cloud formation is discussed and the cloud optical thickness is estimated to increase more than 2%.

  4. Vulnerability of bank filtration systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprenger, C; Lorenzen, G; Hülshoff, I; Grützmacher, G; Ronghang, M; Pekdeger, A

    2011-01-15

    Bank filtration (BF) is a well established and proven natural water treatment technology, where surface water is infiltrated to an aquifer through river or lake banks. Improvement of water quality is achieved by a series of chemical, biological and physical processes during subsurface passage. This paper aims at identifying climate sensitive factors affecting bank filtration performance and assesses their relevance based on hypothetical 'drought' and 'flood' climate scenarios. The climate sensitive factors influencing water quantity and quality also have influence on substance removal parameters such as redox conditions and travel time. Droughts are found to promote anaerobic conditions during bank filtration passage, while flood events can drastically shorten travel time and cause breakthrough of pathogens, metals, suspended solids, DOC and organic micropollutants. The study revealed that only BF systems comprising an oxic to anoxic redox sequence ensure maximum removal efficiency. The storage capacity of the banks and availability of two source waters renders BF for drinking water supply less vulnerable than surface water or groundwater abstraction alone. Overall, BF is vulnerable to climate change although anthropogenic impacts are at least as important.

  5. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  6. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  7. Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyarko, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and

  8. Strengthening Carrying Capacity of a Water Supply System under Climate Change with the Drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Syujie; Liu, Tzuming; Li, Minghsu; Tung, Chingpin

    2016-04-01

    The carrying capacity of a water supply system is the maximal probable water supply amount under an acceptable risk which is related to the systematic combination of hydrology conditions, climatic conditions, and water infrastructures, for instance, reservoirs, weirs, and water treatment plants. Due to long-term imbalance of water supply and demand during the drought seasons, the carrying capacity of a water supply system may be affected gradually with more extreme climate events resulting from the climate change. To evaluate the carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change, three major steps to build adaptation capacity under climate change are adopted, including problem identification and goal setting, current risk assessment, and future risk assessment. The carrying capacities for current climate condition and future climate condition were estimated respectively. The early warning system was taken as the effective measure to strengthen the carrying capacity for the uncertain changing climate. The water supply system of Chuoshui River basin in Taiwan is used as the case study. The system dynamics modeling software, Vensim, was used to build the water resources allocation model for Chuoshui River basin. To apply the seasonal climate forecasts released from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) on modeling, a weather generator is adopted to generate daily weather data for the input of the hydrological component of GWLF model, to project inflows with the lead time of three months. Consequently, the water shortages with and without a drought early warning system were estimated to evaluate the effectiveness of a drought early warning system under climate change. Keywords: Climate change, Carrying capacity, Risk Assessment, Seasonal Climate Forecasts, Drought Early Warning System

  9. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  10. Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSR), for 1981 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to...

  11. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  12. Melancholia States in the Climate System: Exploring Global Instabilities and Critical Transitions

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-01-01

    Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and - for all practical purposes - irreversible changes in the properties of the system. The Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical/astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate, characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the climate response to forcings and focus on the properties of critical transitions in the context of both stochastic and deterministic dynamics, and assess strengths and weaknesses of simplified approaches. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and co. for the investigation of multistable turbulent fluids, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the ...

  13. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  14. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.;

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  15. Climate change mitigation studies in Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Sri Lanka, Climate Change Mitigation Studies have received low priority and have been limited to an ADB-sponsored preliminary study followed by an initial assessment of some mitigation options in the energy and agricultural sectors, with technical assistance from the US Country Studies Program. The major focus was on options of the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Owing to funding constraints, only the potential for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the various mitigation options were quantified; analysis of monetary costs and benefits or policy/programs for adoption of the options were not undertaken. For the non-energy sector, a very limited study on mitigation of methane emissions from rice fields was carried out. (au)

  16. Climate change mitigation studies in Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wickramaratne, Rupa [Ministry of Forestry and Environment, GEF/UNDP Enabling Activity Project (Sri Lanka)

    1998-12-01

    In Sri Lanka, Climate Change Mitigation Studies have received low priority and have been limited to an ADB-sponsored preliminary study followed by an initial assessment of some mitigation options in the energy and agricultural sectors, with technical assistance from the US Country Studies Program. The major focus was on options of the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Owing to funding constraints, only the potential for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the various mitigation options were quantified; analysis of monetary costs and benefits or policy/programs for adoption of the options were not undertaken. For the non-energy sector, a very limited study on mitigation of methane emissions from rice fields was carried out. (au)

  17. A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

  18. Model based design of optimal multivariable climate control systems.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henten, van E.J.

    1989-01-01

    The simulation results are presented of the application of the linear quadratic performance (LQP) control design methodology to a non-linear physical greenhouse climate system. A multivariable greenhouse climate model designed by Bot (1983) is used for controller design and evaluation. First, the no

  19. Systems studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Systems Studies Activity had two objectives: (1) to investigate nontechnical barriers to the deployment of biomass production and supply systems and (2) to enhance and extend existing systems models of bioenergy supply and use. For the first objective, the Activity focused on existing bioenergy markets. Four projects were undertaken: a comparative analysis of bioenergy in Sweden and Austria; a one-day workshop on nontechnical barriers jointly supported by the Production Systems Activity, the development and testing of a framework for analyzing barriers and drivers to bioenergy markets; and surveys of wood pellet users in Sweden, Austria and the U.S.A. For the second objective, two projects were undertaken. First, the Activity worked with the Integrated Bioenergy Systems (IBS) Activity of IEA Bioenergy Task XIII to enhance the BioEnergy Assessment Model (BEAM). This model is documented in the final report of the IBS Activity. The Systems Studies Activity contributed to enhancing the feedstock portion of the model by developing a coherent set of willow, poplar, and switchgrass production modules relevant to both the U.S.A. and the U.K. The Activity also developed a pretreatment module for switchgrass. Second, the Activity sponsored a three-day workshop on modelling bioenergy systems with the objectives of providing an overview of the types of models used to evaluate bioenergy and promoting communication among bioenergy modelers. There were nine guest speakers addressing different types of models used to evaluate different aspects of bioenergy, ranging from techno-economic models based on the ASPEN software to linear programming models to develop feedstock supply curves for the U.S.A. The papers from this workshop have been submitted to Biomass and Bioenergy and are under editorial review 8 refs, 10 tabs

  20. Systems Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, R.L.

    1998-03-17

    The Systems Studies Activity had two objectives: (1) to investigate nontechnical barriers to the deployment of biomass production and supply systems and (2) to enhance and extend existing systems models of bioenergy supply and use. For the first objective, the Activity focused on existing bioenergy markets. Four projects were undertaken: a comparative analysis of bioenergy in Sweden and Austria; a one-day workshop on nontechnical barriers jointly supported by the Production Systems Activity; the development and testing of a framework for analyzing barriers and drivers to bioenergy markets; and surveys of wood pellet users in Sweden, Austria and the US. For the second objective, two projects were undertaken. First, the Activity worked with the Integrated BioEnergy Systems (TBS) Activity of TEA Bioenergy Task XIII to enhance the BioEnergy Assessment Model (BEAM). This model is documented in the final report of the IBS Activity. The Systems Studies Activity contributed to enhancing the feedstock portion of the model by developing a coherent set of willow, poplar, and switchgrass production modules relevant to both the US and the UK. The Activity also developed a pretreatment module for switchgrass. Second, the Activity sponsored a three-day workshop on modeling bioenergy systems with the objectives of providing an overview of the types of models used to evaluate bioenergy and promoting communication among bioenergy modelers. There were nine guest speakers addressing different types of models used to evaluate different aspects of bioenergy, ranging from technoeconomic models based on the ASPEN software to linear programming models to develop feedstock supply curves for the US. The papers from this workshop have been submitted to Biomass and Bioenergy and are under editorial review.

  1. The GLOBE climate legislation study: a review of climate change legislation in 66 countries: fourth edition

    OpenAIRE

    Nachmany, Michal; Fankhauser, Samuel; Townshend, Terry; Collins, Murray; Landesman, Tucker; Matthews, Adam; Pavese, Carolina; Rietig, Katharina; SCHLEIFER, Philip; Setzer, Joana

    2014-01-01

    The GLOBE Climate Legislation Study is the most comprehensive audit of climate legislation across 66 countries, together responsible for around 88% of global manmade greenhouse gas emissions. It is produced by the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics in collaboration with GLOBE International. The 4th edition of the Study was formally launched at the 2nd GLOBE Climate Legislation Summit held at the Senate of the United States of America and at the World Bank in Was...

  2. Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pratik

    climate forecasts. Aqua is a major mission of the Earth Observing System (EOS), an international program centered in NASA's Earth Science Enterprise to study the Earth in detail from the unique vantage point of space. Focused on key measurements identified by a consensus of U.S. and international scientists, EOS is further enabling studies of the complex interactions amongst the Earth's land, ocean, air, ice and biological systems. Aqua's contributions to monitoring water in the Earth's environment will involve all six of Aqua's instruments: the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer- Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). Frozen water in the oceans, in the form of sea ice, will be examined with both AMSR-E and MODIS data, the former allowing routine monitoring of sea ice at a coarse resolution and the latter providing greater spatial resolution but only under cloud-free conditions. Sea ice can insulate the underlying liquid water against heat loss to the often frigid overlying polar atmosphere and also reflects sunlight that would otherwise be available to warm the ocean. AMSR-E measurements will allow the routine derivation of sea ice concentrations in both polar regions, through taking advantage of the marked contrast in microwave emissions of sea ice and liquid water. This will continue, with improved resolution and accuracy, a 22-year satellite record of changes in the extent of polar ice. MODIS, with its finer resolution, will permit the identification of individual ice flows, when unobscured by clouds. AMSR-E and MODIS will also provide monitoring, the AIRS/AMSU/HSB combination will provide more-accurate space-based measurements of atmospheric temperature and water vapor than have ever been obtained before, with the highest vertical

  3. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

  4. Climate's Long-term Impact on New Zealand Infrastructure (CLINZI) - A Case Study of Hamilton City, New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Jollands, Nigel; Ruth, Matthias; Bernier, C.; Golubiewski, N.

    2005-01-01

    Infrastructure systems and services (ISS) are vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper reports on a study of the impact of gradual climate changes on ISS in Hamilton City, New Zealand. This study is unique in that it is the first of its kind to be applied to New Zealand ISS. This study also considers a broader range of ISS than most other climate change studies recently conducted. Using historical climate data and four climate change scenarios, we modelled the impact of climate change on ...

  5. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  6. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  7. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

  8. White book Escrime. Climatic simulation studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ESCRIME project aims to manage the analysis realized on the climatic simulations on the framework of the fourth report of the GIEC (group of intergovernmental experts on the climate evolution), in particularly the simulations based on french models. This white book is constituted by 8 chapters: the global scenario, the climatic sensibility, the variation modes, the regionalization and the extremes, the hydrological cycle, the polar regions and the cryo-sphere, the carbon cycle, detection and attributions. (A.L.B.)

  9. CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Pt. 1. Model description and performance for present climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petoukhov, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Eliseev, A.; Kubatzki, C.; Rahmstorf, S.

    1998-02-01

    A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its performance for present climate conditions are presented. The model consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vegetation cover, and global carbon cycle. The modules interact (on-line) through the fluxes of momentum, energy, water and carbon. The model has a coarse spatial resolution, allowing nevertheless to capture the major features of the Earth`s geography. The model describes temporal variability of the system on seasonal and longer time scales. Due to the fact that the model does not employ any type of flux adjustment and has fast turnaround time, it can be used for study of climates significantly different from the present one and allows to perform long-term (multimillennia) simulations. The constraints for coupling the atmosphere and ocean without flux adjustment are discussed. The results of a model validation against present climate data show that the model successfully describes the seasonal variability of a large set of characteristics of the climate system, including radiative balance, temperature, precipitation, ocean circulation and cryosphere. (orig.) 62 refs.

  10. Progress in rapid climate changes and their modeling study in millennial and centennial scales

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is one of the most important aspects in paleoclimate study.It has been found that rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is a global phenomenon during both the glacial age and the Holocene with amplitudes typical of geological or astronomical time-scales.Simulations of glacial and Holocene climate changes have demonstrated the response of the climate system to the changes of earth orbital parameter and the importance of variations in feedbacks of ocean,vegetation,icecap and greenhouse gases.Modeling experiments suggest that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation was sensitive to the fresh water input into the North Atlantic and was closely related to the rapid climate changes during the last glacial age and the Holocene.Adopting the Earth-system models of inter mediate complexity (EMICs),CLIMBER-2,the response of East Asian climate change to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events during the typical last glacial period (60 ka B.P.-20 ka B.P.) and impacts of ice on the Tibetan plateau on Holocene climate change were stimulated,studied and revealed.Further progress of paleoclimate modeling depends on developing finer-grid models and reconstructing more reliable boundary conditions.More attention should be paid on the study of mechanisms of abrupt climatic changes as well as regional climate changes in the background of global climate change.

  11. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF CEILING RADIANT COOLING SYSTEM IN COMPOSITE CLIMATE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, Anuj [Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, India; Mathur, Jyotirmay [Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, India; Bhandari, Mahabir S [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Radiant cooling systems are proving to be an energy efficient solution due to higher thermal capacity of cooling fluid especially for the buildings that require individual zone controls and where the latent loads are moderate. The Conventional air conditioners work at very low temperature i.e.5-8 c (refrigerant evaporator inlet) while the radiant cooling systems, also referred as high temperature cooling system, work at high temperatures i.e. 14-18 c. The radiant cooling systems can maintain lower MRT (Mean Radiant Temperature) as ceiling panels maintain uniform temperature gradient inside room and provide higher human comfort. The radiant cooling systems are relatively new systems and their operation and energy savings potential are not quantified for a large number of buildings and operational parameters. Moreover, there are only limited numbers of whole building simulation studies have been carried out for these systems to have a full confidence in the capability of modelling tools to simulate these systems and predict the impact of various operating parameters. Theoretically, savings achieve due to higher temperature set point of chilled water, which reduces chiller-running time. However, conventional air conditioner runs continuously to maintain requisite temperature. In this paper, experimental study for performance evaluation of radiant cooling system carried out on system installed at Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur. This paper quantifies the energy savings opportunities and effective temperature by radiant cooling system at different chilled water flow rates and temperature range. The data collected/ analysed through experimental study will used for calibration and validation of system model of building prepared in building performance simulation software. This validated model used for exploring optimized combinations of key parameters for composite climate. These optimized combinations will used in formulation of radiant cooling system

  12. Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

  13. Supporting NGSS-aligned Study of Authentic Data about Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalles, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    The subject of climate change holds tremendous opportunity for students to learn how scientists use data to develop and test theories of how the natural world works and appreciate how climate change instantiates cross-cutting NGSS science themes like stability and change, energy and matter, and cause and effect. To do so, students and teachers need help seeing in authentic Earth system data complex climate interactions and generate plans for building greater understanding of the complexities through further data investigation. With ever-growing repositories of global and regional public data and user friendly tools for their display, K-12 educators are challenged to help students study data independently rather than through the usual pre-filtered didactic presentations of data found in textbooks. The paper will describe strategies for facilitating critical thinking about authentic climate-related data in two climate change education projects funded by NASA and NSF, as well as learning outcomes. Data Enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (dicce.sri.com) brings data from NASA satellite missions to classrooms. Studying Topography, Orographic Rainfall, and Ecosystems with Geospatial Information Technology (store.sri.com) provides recent climatological and vegetation data about certain study areas in California and New York plus geospatially distributed projected values of temperature, precipitation, and land cover in 2050 and 2099, derived from NCAR's A2 climate change model. Supportive resources help students move from naïve conceptions of simple linear relationships between variables into critical analysis of what other variables could be mediating those relationships. DICCE contains guides for how to interpret multiyear trends that are evident in the NASA mission data in relation to what we know about current climate change. If a learner plots a line of best fit across multiple months or years of regional data and notices that the line is either

  14. INTRODUCTION: Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    Geoengineering techniques for countering climate change have been receiving much press recently as a `Plan B' if a global deal to tackle climate change is not agreed at the COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen this December. However, the field is controversial as the methods may have unforeseen consequences, potentially making temperatures rise in some regions or reducing rainfall, and many aspects remain under-researched. This focus issue of Environmental Research Letters is a collection of research articles, invited by David Keith, University of Calgary, and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, that present and evaluate different methods for engineering the Earth's climate. Not only do the letters in this issue highlight various methods of climate engineering but they also detail the arguments for and against climate engineering as a concept. Further reading Focus on Geoengineering at http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/subject/tag=geoengineering IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science is an open-access proceedings service available at www.iop.org/EJ/journal/ees Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System Contents Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming David L Mitchell and William Finnegan Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change Andrew Ross and H Damon Matthews Researching geoengineering: should not or could not? Martin Bunzl Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering H Damon Matthews and Sarah E Turner Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research David R Morrow, Robert E Kopp and Michael Oppenheimer On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts Michael C MacCracken The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone P Heckendorn, D Weisenstein, S Fueglistaler, B P Luo, E Rozanov, M Schraner, L W Thomason and T Peter The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered

  15. Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Brock, W.A.; Xepapadeas, A.

    2015-01-01

    Human economies and ecosystems form a coupled system coevolving in time and space, since human economies use ecosystems services and at the same time affect ecosystems through their production and consumption activities. The study of the interactions between human economies and ecosystems is fundamental for the efficient use of natural resources and the protection of the environment. This necessitates the development and use of models capa- ble of tracing the main interactions, links and feed...

  16. Geographical Information Systems, Urban Forestry and Climate Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.S. Eludoyin

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper unfolds the use of urban forestry in controlling climate change and presents the use Geographical Information System (GIS as an adequate and efficient modern tool for analyzing and mapping the forest inventories for use in ameliorating the scourge of climate change in the society. The paper concludes that a holistic approach which involves the integrating urban forestry, GIS and elements of climate will go a long way to assist in saving the livelihood of mankind from being seriously affected by climate change. More so, adequate awareness should be given on the roles of urban forestry and GIS in reducing climate change. In addition, continual assessment of landuse and land cover should be done in order to detect the percentage change of urban forest resources over time with the use of GIS and remote sensing.

  17. Several Suggestions on the Climate Change and Its Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    According to the abundant studies,the relevant information and comprehensive analysis of the climate changes,several important problems on the climate changes and its studies were proposed.Based on the temporal distribution of the meteorological disaster of agriculture,the wave theory was expounded so as to draw people's attention on climate changes and to be objective,just and careful about the study.

  18. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  19. Providing a Scientific Foundation in Climate Studies for Non-Science Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Lambert, J.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; O'Neill, K. L.; Hyre, H. R.; Nugnes, K. A.; Moses, M. N.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change has become a politically charged topic, creating the necessity for a scientifically literate population. Therefore, the American Meteorological Society (AMS), in partnership with NASA, has produced an introductory level, climate science course that engages students, allows for course flexibility, and boosts scientific knowledge about climate. This course shares NASA’s goal of observing, understanding, and modeling the Earth system, to discover how it is changing, to better predict change, and to understand the consequences for life. In Spring 2010, AMS Climate Studies was piloted to determine the most effective method to foster an understanding of some of the more difficult concepts of climate science. This study was offered as part of the NASA grant. This presentation will report the results of that study. Faculty and students from fourteen colleges and universities throughout the country evaluated the course using pre- and post-test questions, which included multiple choice and short answer questions, weekly course content evaluations, and an extensive post-course evaluation. The large majority of participating teachers rated the overall course, scientific content, internet delivery, and study materials as ‘good’, the most positive response available. Feedback from faculty members as well as suggestions from NASA reviewers were used to enhance the final version of the textbook and Investigations Manual for the Fall 2010 academic semester. Following the proven course work of AMS Weather and AMS Ocean Studies, AMS Climate Studies is a turnkey package utilizing both printed and online materials. It covers topics such as the water in Earth’s climate system, paleoclimates, along with climate change and public policy. The Investigations include 30 complimentary lab-style activities including the Conceptual Energy Model, which explores the flow of energy from space to Earth. Additionally, the course website features Current Climate Studies where

  20. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious cl

  1. Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Kelly E.

    Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated

  2. Climate-Smart Farms? Case Studies in Burkina Faso and Colombia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andrieu, N.; Pédelahore, P.; Howland, F.; Descheemaeker, K.K.E.

    2016-01-01

    The climate-smart agriculture concept aims to encourage reflection on
    the transition to sustainable agricultural systems adapted to climate change. This chapter is based on participatory research studies carried out in Colombia and Burkina Faso to investigate, with farmers, the relevance of new

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Wastewater Systems in Reykjavík

    OpenAIRE

    Ásta Ósk Hlöðversdóttir 1982

    2011-01-01

    Due to climate change, precipitation is projected to increase in Northern Europe (Bates et. al., 2008). Such changes can influence the design and management of wastewater systems. Most of the current climate change studies have not analyzed short duration precipitation which is needed for wastewater system design. The objectives of this project are first to investigate whether changes in short duration extreme precipitation have occurred in Reykjavík in the past decades, then to assess increa...

  4. Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

    2003-01-01

    A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

  5. Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which

  6. Climate benefits and environmental challenges related to urban food systems

    OpenAIRE

    Verzandvoort, S.J.E.; Mol, G.; Meulen, van der, A.; Oostrom, van, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    In a short literature review, we have collected available knowledge on the potential benefits of urban agriculture, as part of local food systems, on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The effects of urban agriculture on climate change mitigation and adaptation depend on the type of agricultural practice (e.g. in greenhouses, in soil, in artificial substrates used resources) and the difference with previous land use (e.g. leading to an increase or decrease of sealed soil surface and gr...

  7. Impact of Climatic Variations on Storage Reservoir Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Z. Kaczmarek

    1990-01-01

    Within IIASA's Enironment Program, one of the objectives of the Water Resources Project is to investigate the impact of environmental and economic changes on water resources management. The climate/water resources problem raises a number of scientific questions that must be addressed to answer policy needs reflecting potential effects of global climatic change on regional water management, and possible adaptive measures that could be taken. Historically water resource systems have been design...

  8. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Johannes A; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2015-12-21

    Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics.

  9. Planning and costing adaptation of perennial crop systems to climate change: Coffee and banana in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Mukashema, Adrie; Ikirezi, Mireille; Niyitanga, Fidele

    2011-10-15

    The Rwandan economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since agricultural production in Rwanda depends almost exclusively on the quality of the rainy season and specific temperature ranges, it makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The study objective of evaluating and costing the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for this geographic context responds to the Rwandan Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy, 2008-2012 (EDPRS) (MINECOFIN 2007), in which climate change and its adverse impacts were recently identified as a high priority. This study has particularly focused on coffee and banana farming systems and aimed at analysing shocks due to climate change from farmer to policymaker perspectives. The study found that in the last 30 years, Rwanda has experienced a series of climate fluctuations in terms of frequency, intensity, and persistence of existing extremes. Heavy rains, storms, heatwaves and droughts are the observed manifestations of climate change in specific areas of Rwanda. Changing weather patterns have an adverse impact on the country's agricultural production and thus on the country's GDP. Adaptation options for Rwanda include the following efficiency-enhancing agricultural interventions: 1. Adaption of crop calendars to new climate patterns (more effective distribution of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides). 2. Investments in farming equipment. 3. Improvement of extension services and research. 4. Restructuring of the institutional frameworks and development plans. Integrated water resources management (IWRM); setting up information systems for early warning systems and rapid intervention mechanisms; intense agri-pastoral activities; and research on climate-resilient varieties were identified as primary requirements for agricultural adaption to climate change. In addition, developing alternative energy sources (e.g., substituting firewood) and the promotion of non

  10. Coupled Climate Model Appraisal a Benchmark for Future Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J; AchutaRao, K; Bader, D; Covey, C; Doutriaux, C M; Fiorino, M; Gleckler, P J; Sperber, K R; Taylor, K E

    2005-08-22

    The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has produced an extensive appraisal of simulations of present-day climate by eleven representative coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) which were developed during the period 1995-2002. Because projections of potential future global climate change are derived chiefly from OAGCMs, there is a continuing need to test the credibility of these predictions by evaluating model performance in simulating the historically observed climate. For example, such an evaluation is an integral part of the periodic assessments of climate change that are reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The PCMDI appraisal thus provides a useful benchmark for future studies of this type. The appraisal mainly analyzed multi-decadal simulations of present-day climate by models that employed diverse representations of climate processes for atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, as well as different techniques for coupling these components (see Table). The selected models were a subset of those entered in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2, Covey et al. 2003). For these ''CMIP2+ models'', more atmospheric or oceanic variables were provided than the minimum requirements for participation in CMIP2. However, the appraisal only considered those climate variables that were supplied from most of the CMIP2+ models. The appraisal focused on three facets of the simulations of current global climate: (1) secular trends in simulation time series which would be indicative of a problematical ''coupled climate drift''; (2) comparisons of temporally averaged fields of simulated atmospheric and oceanic climate variables with available observational climatologies; and (3) correspondences between simulated and observed modes of climatic variability. Highlights of these climatic aspects manifested by different CMIP2+ simulations are briefly

  11. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2012-09-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

  12. 3D Geo-Information in Urban Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, F.; Aldea, M.; Luca, O.; Iacoboaea, C.; Gaman, F.; Parlow, E.

    2016-10-01

    3D geo-information is essential for urban climate studies. It is obvious that both natural environment and built-up environment play the fundamental role in defining the climatic conditions for urban areas, which affect the quality of human life and human comfort. The paper presents the main categories of 3D geo-information used in urban climate studies and roles in creating and operating the numerical models specially designed to simulate urban planning scenarios and improvement of the urban climate situation.

  13. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail

  14. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halden, Peter

    2007-12-15

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail.

  15. Climate Adaptive Planning for Urban green Roof System Chengdu Case Study%基于气候适应性的城市屋顶绿化系统规划研究以成都为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董靓; 黄瑞

    2014-01-01

    城市屋顶绿地应是以本地地域气候特征为基本出发点和落脚点。以适应气候为评价标准的屋顶绿地系统规划则应在规划布局上疏导城市通风;并利用热岛环流造风;利用屋顶绿化分散污染高浓度区域。以成都为例,从改善城市风环境的角度,探讨城市尺度的屋顶绿化系统的气候适应性规划问题。%Urban roof green space should make local regional climate features as its starting point and foundation. And the climate-adaptive roof green space planning should be beneficial to city ventilation, local air circulation and dividing high pol uted areas into smal er areas. Taking Chengdu as case study, this paper discusses climate adaptive planning for city-scale urban green roof system for the purpose of improving urban wind environment.

  16. THERMAL PERFORMANCE OF ROOFTOP GREENERY SYSTEM AT THE TROPICAL CLIMATE OF MALAYSIA A case study of a 10 storied building R.C.C flat rooftop at UTM, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rumana Rashid

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In tropical countries rooftop greenery is more sympathetic to the prevailing climate and provides comfortable indoor environment. This paper analyses the above hypothesis on a 10 storied residential apartments in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM. The analysis of actual performance of the rooftop greenery can provide the information on effectiveness of its application on contemporary houses for tropical climate in Malaysia. Empirical studies have been performed an internal and external roof surface, where temperature and air temperature were measured for a period of three days in two phases. The first phase of measurement was carried out when the rooftop was empty. After the rooftop greenery was built then the second phase of measurement was conducted. Expected findings of the research are that the green rooftop will tend to experience lower surface temperature than the original exposed roof surface. So this research work will provide an introduction or preliminary guide line for thermally responsive architecture on the basis of thermal performance of the rooftop greenery system. Temperature is the main criteria of human comfort. To provide an indoor comfortable environment through the greening of the rooftop of the building is more appropriate in the tropical climate of Malaysia.

  17. Non-linearity dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, V.R.; Wilcox, D.A.; Stottlemyer, R.; Barrow, W.; Fagre, D.; Baron, J.; Nielsen, J.L.; Allen, C.D.; Peterson, D.L.; Ruggerone, G.; Doyle, T.

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate cna lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  18. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deal, Clara [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States); Jin, Meibing [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States)

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  19. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    OpenAIRE

    Engels Stefan; van Geel Bas

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the ef...

  20. Urban climate studies: addressing the role of urban green spaces

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Artur (Ed.); Ribeiro, A.C.; Maia, Filipe; Pinto, M.V.; Feliciano, Manuel

    2013-01-01

    Cities present a wide range of climate transformations resulting from changes induced by buildings and other artificial structures, including such effects as the urban heat island (UHI) and the changes in the ventilation patterns. Under these conditions, urban climate analysis is increasingly considered as a necessary activity that should be part of the urban planning practice. Although there has been a wide development of climate studies across different countries, further improvement is...

  1. Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Fasullo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerous attempts have been made to constrain climate sensitivity with observations [1-10] (with [6] as LC09, [8] as SB11. While all of these attempts contain various caveats and sources of uncertainty, some efforts have been shown to contain major errors and are demonstrably incorrect. For example, multiple studies [11-13] separately addressed weaknesses in LC09 [6]. The work of Trenberth et al. [13], for instance, demonstrated a basic lack of robustness in the LC09 method that fundamentally undermined their results. Minor changes in that study’s subjective assumptions yielded major changes in its main conclusions. Moreover, Trenberth et al. [13] criticized the interpretation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO as an analogue for exploring the forced response of the climate system. In addition, as many cloud variations on monthly time scales result from internal atmospheric variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, cloud variability is not a deterministic response to surface temperatures. Nevertheless, many of the problems in LC09 [6] have been perpetuated, and Dessler [10] has pointed out similar issues with two more recent such attempts [7,8]. Here we briefly summarize more generally some of the pitfalls and issues involved in developing observational constraints on climate feedbacks. [...

  2. Incorporating climate-system and carbon-cycle uncertainties in integrated assessments of climate change. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D. L.; Reisinger, A.; Knutti, R.; Riahi, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2013-12-01

    The field of integrated assessment draws from a large body of knowledge across a range of disciplines to gain robust insights about possible interactions, trade-offs, and synergies. Integrated assessment of climate change, for example, uses knowledge from the fields of energy system science, economics, geophysics, demography, climate change impacts, and many others. Each of these fields comes with its associated caveats and uncertainties, which should be taken into account when assessing any results. The geophysical system and its associated uncertainties are often represented by models of reduced complexity in integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Such models include simple representations of the carbon-cycle and climate system, and are often based on the global energy balance equation. A prominent example of such model is the 'Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', MAGICC. Here we show how a model like MAGICC can be used for the representation of geophysical uncertainties. Its strengths, weaknesses, and limitations are discussed and illustrated by means of an analysis which attempts to integrate socio-economic and geophysical uncertainties. These uncertainties in the geophysical response of the Earth system to greenhouse gases remains key for estimating the cost of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios. We look at uncertainties in four dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. Our results indicate that while geophysical uncertainties are an important factor influencing projections of mitigation costs, political choices that delay mitigation by one or two decades a much more pronounced effect.

  3. Appraising the effect of the primary systems on the cost optimal design of nZEB: A case study in two different climates

    OpenAIRE

    Filippi, Marco; Ferrara, Maria; Fabrizio, Enrico

    2015-01-01

    The work concerns the application of the cost-optimal methodology to a low-consumption French single-family house in order to study how the primary energy system influences the envelope design of a cost optimal nZEB. This is done applying a simulation based optimization method that combines \\TRNSYS\\ with GenOpt in an iterative process. Four primary energy systems were considered (a gas condensing boiler, a wood boiler, an all-electrical radiator system and a combined reversible air to air hea...

  4. The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vicuna, S. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 612 Davis Hall, Mail Code 1710, Berkeley, CA 94720-1710 (United States); Dracup, J.A. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 625 Davis Hall, Mail Code 1710, Berkeley, CA 94720-1710 (United States)

    2007-06-15

    Potential global climate change impacts on hydrology pose a threat to water resources systems throughout the world. The California water system is especially vulnerable to global warming due to its dependence on mountain snow accumulation and the snowmelt process. Since 1983, more than 60 studies have investigated climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in California. These studies can be categorized in three major fields: (1) Studies of historical trends of streamflow and snowpack in order to determine if there is any evidence of climate change in the geophysical record; (2) Studies of potential future predicted effects of climate change on streamflow and; (3) Studies that use those predicted changes in natural runoff to determine their economic, ecologic, or institutional impacts. In this paper we review these studies with an emphasis on methodological procedures. We provide for each category of studies a summary of significant conclusions and potential areas for future work.

  5. Integrated web system of geospatial data services for climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required. An approach for integrated analysis of georefernced climatological data sets based on combination of web and GIS technologies in the framework of spatial data infrastructure paradigm is presented. According to this approach a dedicated data-processing web system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is being developed. It is based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement #14.613.21.0037.

  6. Actor Network Theory Approach and its Application in Investigating Agricultural Climate Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Sharifzadeh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Actor network theory as a qualitative approach to study complex social factors and process of socio-technical interaction provides new concepts and ideas to understand socio-technical nature of information systems. From the actor network theory viewpoint, agricultural climate information system is a network consisting of actors, actions and information related processes (production, transformation, storage, retrieval, integration, diffusion and utilization, control and management, and system mechanisms (interfaces and networks. Analysis of such systemsembody the identification of basic components and structure of the system (nodes –thedifferent sources of information production, extension, and users, and the understanding of how successfully the system works (interaction and links – in order to promote climate knowledge content and improve system performance to reach agricultural development. The present research attempted to introduce actor network theory as research framework based on network view of agricultural climate information system.

  7. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  8. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  9. Systems in peril: Climate change, agriculture and biodiversity in Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reflects on the interplay amongst three closely linked systems - climate, agriculture and biodiversity - in the Australian context. The advance of a European style of agriculture has imperilled Australian biodiversity. The loss and degradation of biodiversity has, in turn, had negative consequences for agriculture. Climate change is imposing new pressures on both agriculture and biodiversity. From a policy and management perspective, though, it is possible to envisage mitigation and adaptation responses that would alleviate pressures on all three systems (climate, agriculture, biodiversity). In this way, the paper seeks to make explicit the important connections between science and policy. The paper outlines the distinctive features of both biodiversity and agriculture in the Australian context. The discussion then addresses the impacts of agriculture on biodiversity, followed by an overview of how climate change is impacting on both of these systems. The final section of the paper offers some commentary on current policy and management strategies that are targeted at mitigating the loss of biodiversity and which may also have benefits in terms of climate change.

  10. Climate Informatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Alexander, Francis J.; Niculescu-Mizil, Alexandru; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tippett, Michael; Banerjee, Arindam; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Tedesco, Marco

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science.

  11. Nonlinear evolution characteristics of the climate system on the interdecadal-centennial timescale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xin-Quan; Zhang Wen

    2005-01-01

    To better understand the physical mechanism of the climate change on interdecadal-centennial timescale, this paper focuses on analysing and modelling the evolution characteristics of the climate change. The method of wavelet transform is used to pick out the interdecadal timescale oscillations from long-term instrumental observations, natural proxy records, and modelling series. The modelling series derived from the most simplified nonlinear climatic model are used to identify whether modifications are concerned with some forcings such as the solar radiation on the climate system. The results show that two major oscillations exist in various observations and model series, namely the 2030a and the 60-70a timescale respectively, and these quasi-periodicities are modulated with time. Further, modelling results suggest that the originations of these oscillations are not directly linked with the periodic variation of solar radiations such as the 1-year cycle, the 11-year cycle, and others, but possibly induced by the internal nonlinear effects of the climate system. It seems that the future study on the genesis of the climate change with interdecadal-centennial timescale should focus on the internal nonlinear dynamics in the climate system.

  12. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  13. Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Marjorie O.

    2010-01-01

    This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…

  14. Development, Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R. C.; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P. R.

    2009-05-01

    India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

  15. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.;

    and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...

  16. Leadership, organizational climate, and working alliance in a children's mental health service system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Amy E; Albanese, Brian J; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A

    2014-10-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve public sector services. Understanding these issues is important for program leaders, mental health service providers, and consumers because they can affect both the way services are delivered and ultimately, clinical outcomes.

  17. Evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Chemistry-Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Stone

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Chemistry climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth System. In particular, they are used for assessing the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model, focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 show a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. A significant innovation is the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (up to 26.4 % at Davis during winter and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10.1 K at the South Pole outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centered around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes. The models inability to explicitly simulated supercooled ternary solution may also explain the lack of depletion at lower altitudes. The simulated Southern Annular Mode (SAM index compares well with ERA-Interim data. Accompanying

  18. DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate

  19. A Standardized Evaluation System for Decadal Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Cubasch, U.

    2012-12-01

    The evaluation of decadal prediction systems is a scientific challenge as well as a technical challenge in the climate research. The major project MiKlip (www.fona-miklip.de) for medium-term climate prediction funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) has the aim to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal forecasts on climate and weather. The model system to be developed will be novel in several aspects, with great challenges for the methodology development. This concerns especially the determination of the initial conditions, the inclusion into the model of processes relevant to decadal predictions, the increase of the spatial resolution through regionalisation, the improvement or adjustment of statistical post-processing, and finally the synthesis and validation of the entire model system. Therefore, a standardized evaluation system will be part of the MiKlip system to validate it - developed by the project 'Integrated data and evaluation system for decadal scale prediction' (INTEGRATION). The presentation gives an overview of the different linkages of such a project, shows the different development stages and gives an outlook for users and possible end users in climate service. The technical interface combines all projects inside of MiKlip and invites them to participate in a common evaluation system. The system design and the validation strategy from a standalone tool in the beginning to a user friendly web based system using GRID technologies to an integrated part of the operational MiKlip system for industry and society will give the opportunity to enhance the MiKlip strategy. First results of different possibilities of such a system will be shown to present the scientific background through Taylor diagrams, ensemble skill scores and e.g. climatological means to show the usability and possibilities of MiKlip and the INTEGRATION project.

  20. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Engels; B. van Geel

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of t

  1. Climate control systems using pozzolan materials

    KAUST Repository

    Almadhoun, Mahmoud Nassar Mahmoud

    2016-02-18

    A system and method for conditioning air is provided that optimizes the use of sustainable and locally sourced materials with agrarian, residential, and industrial applications. The system can be formed with a porous siliceous, or siliceous and aluminous material that is sufficiently porous, to allow conditioning fluid to flow there through. The material can also be formed into a structure that includes one or more passageways configured to allow air to be conditioned to also pass there through. The structure can be configured to cause the conditioning fluid passing through the porous portions of the structure to intersect and mix with air passing there through. The structure may include a plurality of passageways and intersections and may include a plurality of air inlets and outlets for air passage. The system may additionally include a means for storing, collecting, and driving conditioning fluid through the system and a means for collecting solar radiation to drive airflow and regenerate conditioning fluid.

  2. The Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES): An Observational Campaign for Determining Role of Clouds, Aerosols and Radiation in Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarquhar, G. M.; Wood, R.; Bretherton, C. S.; Alexander, S.; Jakob, C.; Marchand, R.; Protat, A.; Quinn, P.; Siems, S. T.; Weller, R. A.

    2014-12-01

    The Southern Ocean (SO) region is one of the cloudiest on Earth, and as such clouds determine its albedo and play a major role in climate. Evidence shows Earth's climate sensitivity and the Intertropical Convergence Zone location depend upon SO clouds. But, climate models are challenged by uncertainties and biases in the simulation of clouds, aerosols, and air-sea exchanges in this region which trace back to a poor process-level understanding. Due to the SO's remote location, there have been sparse observations of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, radiation and the air-sea interface apart from those from satellites. Plans for an upcoming observational program, SOCRATES, are outlined. Based on feedback on observational and modeling requirements from a 2014 workshop conducted at the University of Washington, a plan is described for obtaining a comprehensive dataset on the boundary-layer structure and associated vertical distributions of liquid and mixed-phase cloud and aerosol properties across a range of synoptic settings, especially in the cold sector of cyclonic storms. Four science themes are developed: improved climate model simulation of SO cloud and boundary layer structure in a rapidly varying synoptic setting; understanding seasonal and synoptic variability in SO cloud condensation and ice nucleus concentration and the role of local biogenic sources; understanding supercooled liquid and mixed-phase clouds and their impacts; and advancing retrievals of clouds, precipitation, aerosols, radiation and surface fluxes. Testable hypotheses for each theme are identified. The observational strategy consists of long-term ground-based observations from Macquarie Island and Davis, continuous data collection onboard Antarctic supply ships, satellite retrievals, and a dedicated field campaign covering 2 distinct seasons using in-situ and remote sensors on low- and high-altitude aircraft, UAVs, and a ship-borne platform. A timeline for these activities is proposed.

  3. Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ωin,air and TReg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The Tsup,air, ωsup,air, COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

  4. Climate Change Education on Public Health Consequences and Impacts to the Human System - An Interdisciplinary Approach to Promoting Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matiella Novak, M.; Paxton, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    In this talk we will discuss our approach to translating an abstract, difficult to internalize idea ("climate change") into knowledge that speaks to people directly in terms of their own lives. Recent research suggests that communicating climate change in the context of public health impacts, and even national security risks, is a more effective method of reaching communities that are currently disengaged or nonresponsive to climate change science than the approaches currently being used. Understanding that these new perspectives might reach a broader audience, the Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project has proposed implementing a suite of education activities that focus on the public health consequences that will arise and/or becoming exacerbated by climate change. Reaching the disparate communities that must be brought together to create a workable approach is challenging. GAIA has developed a novel framework for sharing information and developing communities of interest that cross boundaries in what is otherwise a highly disciplinary approach to climate change studies. Members of the GAIA community include climate change, environmental and public health experts, as well as relevant stakeholders, policy makers and decision makers. By leveraging the existing expertise within the GAIA community, an opportunity exists to present climate change education (CCE) in a way that emphasizes how climate change will affect public health, and utilizes an approach that has been shown to engage a broader and more diverse audience. Focusing CCE on public health effects is a new and potentially transformative method since it makes the results more tangible and less "random". When CCE is focused on what will happen to the Earth's climate and associated meteorological hazards one might be tempted to view this as something that can be coped with thus enabling the individualist entrepreneur point of view. Weather disasters always seem to happen to someone else

  5. Certification of passive houses: lessons from real indoor climate systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mlecnik, E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines if and how indoor climate systems are important for passive house certification. The research subjects are passive houses in Belgium, occupied by owner-clients. These have received a quality assurance certificate from an independent organization. Through interviews with the owner

  6. Biofuels and climate neutrality - system analysis of production and utilisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives of this study were to investigate to what extent biofuels can be said to be climate neutral. An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the production and utilisation chains of a number of solid biofuels were made based on data available in the literature. The data has been used for making radiative forcing calculations. The study also includes a comparison between imported and domestic solid biofuels. We conclude that none of the investigated biofuel chains are 'climate neutral', since all of them result in net emissions of greenhouse gases. However, all of the chains result in lower emissions than corresponding emissions from the use of fossil fuels. The emission estimates for the fuel chains varies depending on fuels and on how system boundaries have been set in the different studies. The following factors can contribute significantly to the total emissions of greenhouse gases of the production and utilisation chain of a biofuel: impact of production system on soil carbon storage, land use methods (especially use of drained peatlands), the use of fertilisers (both direct and indirect), combustion technology, refining of the fuel (i.e. pelletisation) and storage (especially of comminuted fuels). Other sources that also contribute to the emissions during a production and utilisation chain are; harvesting machines, transportation and waste handling. The climate impacts of the greenhouse gas emissions from one of the biofuels, i.e. forest residues, were compared to the impacts of fossil fuels by the concept of radiative forcing. In the radiative forcing calculations the CO2 emissions from combustion of biofuels and the CO2 emissions that would have occurred if the residues had been left in the forest to decompose were included, and their different dynamics taken into consideration. The decomposition results in CO2 emissions during a long time period and in an amount equalling those that are emitted during combustion. Only a minor part is due to

  7. Indoor climate systems in passive houses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mlecnik, E.; Hasselaar, E.; Loon, S.

    2008-01-01

    According to the definition, passive houses in Europe meet a target energy demand for heating of less than 15 kWh per square meter and per year. This low level for the heating demand is based on heating by a small post-heater in the hygienic ventilation system at 52 0C maximum, while the ventilation

  8. Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

    2016-10-01

    Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

  9. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  10. A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

    2011-12-01

    Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used

  11. Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, Don

    2006-08-01

    The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

  12. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27123575

  13. The MIT IGSM-CAM framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) version 2.3 is an intermediate complexity fully coupled earth system model that allows simulation of critical feedbacks among its various components, including the atmosphere, ocean, land, urban processes and human activities. A fundamental feature of the IGSM2.3 is the ability to modify its climate parameters: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. As such, the IGSM2.3 provides an efficient tool for generating probabilistic distribution functions of climate parameters using optimal fingerprint diagnostics. A limitation of the IGSM2.3 is its zonal-mean atmosphere model that does not permit regional climate studies. For this reason, the MIT IGSM2.3 was linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 and new modules were developed and implemented in CAM in order to modify its climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing to match that of the IGSM. The IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and innovative framework to study regional climate change where climate parameters can be modified to span the range of uncertainty and various emissions scenarios can be tested. This paper presents results from the cloud radiative adjustment method used to modify CAM's climate sensitivity. We also show results from 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (a median "business as usual" scenario where no policy is implemented after 2012 and a policy scenario where greenhouse-gas are stabilized at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent concentrations by 2100) and three sets of climate parameters. The three values of climate sensitivity chosen are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the observed 20th century climate change with simulations by the IGSM with a wide range of climate parameters values. The associated aerosol forcing values were chosen to ensure a good agreement of the simulations

  14. Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013

  15. Long-term climate sensitivity of an integrated water supply system: The role of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-09-15

    The assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability on water supply systems depends not only on possible variations of the resources availability, but also on the variation of the demand. In this framework, a robust estimation of direct (climate induced) and indirect (anthropogenically induced) effects of climate change is mandatory to design mitigation measures, especially in those regions of the planet where the groundwater equilibrium is strongly perturbed by exploitations for irrigation purposes. The main goal of this contribution is to propose a comprehensive model that integrates distributed crop water requirements with surface and groundwater mass balance, able to consider management rules of the water supply system. The proposed overall model, implemented, calibrated and validated for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from a surface artificial reservoir and from groundwater. The relative contributions of groundwater recharges and withdrawals to the aquifer stress have been evaluated under different climate perturbations, with emphasis on irrigation practices. Results point out that irrigated agriculture primarily affects groundwater discharge, indicating that ecosystem services connected to river base flow are particularly exposed to climate variation in irrigated areas. Moreover, findings show that the recharge both to surface and to groundwater is mainly affected by drier climate conditions, while hotter conditions have a major impact on the water demand. The non-linearity arising from combined drier and hotter conditions may exacerbate the aquifer stress by exposing it to massive sea-water intrusion.

  16. A longitudinal study of an intervention to improve road safety climate: climate as an organizational boundary spanner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveh, Eitan; Katz-Navon, Tal

    2015-01-01

    This study presents and tests an intervention to enhance organizational climate and expands existing conceptualization of organizational climate to include its influence on employee behaviors outside the organization's physical boundaries. In addition, by integrating the literatures of climate and work-family interface, the study explored climate spillover and crossover from work to the home domain. Focusing on an applied practical problem within organizations, we investigated the example of road safety climate and employees' and their families' driving, using a longitudinal study design of road safety intervention versus control groups. Results demonstrated that the intervention increased road safety climate and decreased the number of traffic violation tickets and that road safety climate mediated the relationship between the intervention and the number of traffic violation tickets. Road safety climate spilled over to the family domain but did not cross over to influence family members' driving.

  17. Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations. (letter)

  18. Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2013-06-01

    The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

  19. Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Viola

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1 in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2 to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.

  20. The ATOMMS Radio Occultation Climate Remote Sensing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kursinski, E. R.; Otarola, A. C.; Ward, D.; McGhee, J.; Reed, H.; Walden, L.

    2012-12-01

    Increasingly complex computer models approximate the climate system and make predictions about how climate will change. In order to make informed decisions about what to do about climate change, one must know how trustworthy these predictions are. Assessing the accuracy of the models and their predictions can only come from comparing models with observations of the real climate. Therefore, we must have observations that precisely and unambiguously determine the state of the climate system, and they must do so independently from the atmospheric models they are being compared against. While this is a very basic point of logic, it is quite difficult to achieve in practice because of the difficulties and limitations of the observations. For this purpose we have been developing a new orbiting remote sensing system called the Active Temperature, Ozone and Moisture Microwave Spectrometer (ATOMMS) that is a cross between GPS radio occultation and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Unlike GPS which uses wavelengths that minimize interaction with the atmosphere, ATOMMS actively probes water vapor and other absorption lines at cm and mm wavelengths in an occultation geometry to simultaneously profile temperature and water vapor. During each occultation, ATOMMS measures the changes in signal amplitude and frequency caused by passage through the atmosphere relative to the amplitude and frequency measured less than 100 seconds earlier when the signal path was above the atmosphere. As such, the ATOMMS observations are inherently self-calibrating. Furthermore, unlike the inherently ambiguous and non-unique atmospheric profiles retrieved from thermal radiance measurements, the atmospheric profiles retrieved from occultations are unique. The expected accuracy of individual ATOMMS profiles of water vapor, temperature and pressure heights is approximately 1%, 0.4K and 10 m respectively with 200 m or better vertical resolution. Performance in cloudy areas will be within a factor of 2 of

  1. Empirical Analysis of Construction Safety Climate - A Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V.S.RAJA PRASAD

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Safety in the construction industry has always been a major issue. Though much improvement in construction safety has been achieved, the industry still continues to lag behind most other industries with regard to safety. The safety climate of any organization consists of employee’s attitudes towards and perceptions of, health and safety behavior. Construction workers attitudes towards safety are influenced by their perceptions of risk, management, safety rulesand procedures. A measure of safety climate could be used to identify those areas of safety that need more attention and improvement. The dynamic nature of safety climate, which has the ability to change on daily basis, means there is a great need for reliable tools that can measure safety climate. Safety climate is a leading performance indicator that can provide insight into safety performance before accidents have occurred. In the present study a questionnaire was framed to ascertain safety climate in major construction rganizations across India involved in construction of Thermal power plants, Hydro power plants, Highway projects, Bridge works, Refinery works, High rise works, Pipe line works and Dam woks and its content validity was verified. The internal consistency of the questionnaire was tested by using Cronbachs alpha coefficient. Data was collected based on questionnaire from employees working in various construction firms in India. The results of questionnaires survey was tested statistically by using the Kruskal – Wallis test to ascertain the attitudes of different categories of employees towards safety climate.

  2. Heterogeneous aquifer system modelisation under semi-arid climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drias, Tarek; Toubal, Ahmed Cherif

    2010-05-01

    The studied zone is a part of the Mellegne's (North-East of Algeria) under pound, this zone is characterised by its semi-arid climate. The water bearing system is formed by the plio-quaternairy alluviums resting on a marley substratuim of age Eocene. The geostatiscitcs approach of the hydrodynamics parameters (Hydrolic load, transmisivity) allowed the study of their spatial distrubution (casting) by the method of Krigeage by blocks and the identification of zones with water-bearing potentialities. In this respect, the zone of Ain Chabro which, is situated in the South of the plain shows the best values of the transmisivity...... The use of a bidimensinnel model in the differences ended in the permanent regime allowed us to establish the global balence sheet (overall assessment) of the tablecloth and to refine the transmisivity field. These would vary more exactley between 10-4 to 10-2 m²/s. The method associating the probability appraoch of Krigeage to that determining the model has facilited the wedging of the model and clarified the inflitration value. Keys words: hydrodynamics, geostatiscitcs, Modeling, Chabro, Tébessa.

  3. Future illumination systems and the climate change challenge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarklev, Araceli; Bjarklev, Anders Overgaard

    2010-01-01

    are met in conjunction with situations, where the esthetical design issues are addressed. Finally, our study also points out to the necessity of finding a trans-disciplinary cooperation across sectors to more effectively answer to the climate change challenge, when designing low-carbon technologies...

  4. The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semadeni-Davies, Annette; Hernebring, Claes; Svensson, Gilbert; Gustafsson, Lars-Göran

    2008-02-01

    SummaryAssessment of the potential impact of climate change on water systems has been an essential part of hydrological research over the last couple of decades. However, the notion that such assessments should also include technological, demographic and land use changes is relatively recent. In this study, the potential impacts of climate change and continued urbanisation on waste and stormwater flows in the combined sewer of central Helsingborg, South Sweden, have been assessed using a series of DHI MOUSE simulations run with present conditions as well as two climate change scenarios and three progressive urbanisation storylines. At present, overflows of untreated wastewater following heavy rainfalls are a major source of pollution to the coastal receiving waters and there is a worry that increased rainfall could exacerbate the problem. Sewer flows resulting from different urbanisation storylines were simulated for two 10-year periods corresponding to present (1994-2003) and future climates (nominally 2081-2090). In all, 12 simulations were made. Climate change was simulated by altering a high-resolution rainfall record according to the climate-change signal derived from a regional climate model. Urbanisation was simulated by altering model parameters to reflect current trends in demographics and water management. It was found that city growth and projected increases in precipitation, both together and alone, are set to worsen the current drainage problems. Conversely, system renovation and installation of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) has a positive effect on the urban environment in general and can largely allay the adverse impacts of both urbanisation and climate change.

  5. Raising Climate Literacy of K-12 Teachers with Datastreme Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society (AMS) DataStreme Project is a free professional development program for in-service K-12 teachers, in which they gain considerable subject matter content and confidence in Earth science instruction. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with a team of AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. The 3-member LITs mentor about 8 teachers and in some instances an emergency manager, per semester through a given DataStreme course. Teachers may receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits through State University of New York's The College at Brockport upon completion of each DataStreme course. DataStreme is in close alignment with A Framework for K-12 Science Education and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Investigating the scientific basis of the workings of Earth's atmosphere, ocean, and climate system follows the cross-cutting theme of the Framework and the NGSS and is the cornerstone of the DataStreme courses. In particular, DataStreme ECS explores the fundamental science of Earth's climate system and addresses the societal impacts relevant to today's teachers and students. The course utilizes resources from respected organizations, such as the IPCC and U.S. Global Change Research Program. Key to the NGSS is that students learn disciplinary core ideas in the context of science and engineering practices. In order for the students to learn in this way, the AMS believes that it is important to train the teachers in this context. DataStreme ECS emphasizes investigation of real-word and current NASA and NOAA data. Participants also are made aware of NASA's EdGCM, a research-grade Global Climate Model where they can explore various future climate scenarios in the same way that actual

  6. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  7. Combating climate change : A case study of Statoil′s climate strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Jönsson, Josefin; Eklöf, Camilla

    2008-01-01

    Level:                           Master thesis in Business administration with concentration towards Ecological economics   Title:             Combating climate change – a case study of Statoil’s climate strategy   Problem:       The world is facing an environmental situation where we no longer can ignore problems like climate change, losses of species and an overall environmental degradation. Many actors have to take their responsibility and do as much as they can for a sustainable developme...

  8. Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan D.G. Fraser

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1 different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2 rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3 the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecological and participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahari in Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers led to changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system. We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitative relationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where the system is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledge and practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducing system vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenario analyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari.

  9. Computer Model for Automobile Climate Control System Simulation and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emin Oker

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available A software to simulate the dynamic operation of climate control system for a generic automobile has been developed. The transient nature of passenger cabin temperature and relative humidity are predicted using the principles of thermodynamics. Analysis include detailed simulations of every component of the automobile air conditioning network. The methodology is validated by comparing the simulation results with the experimental results.

  10. Spatial distribution of the persistent organic pollutants across the Tibetan Plateau and its linkage with the climate systems: a 5-year air monitoring study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoping; Ren, Jiao; Gong, Ping; Wang, Chuanfei; Xue, Yonggang; Yao, Tandong; Lohmann, Rainer

    2016-06-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been contaminated by persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including legacy organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) through atmospheric transport. The exact source regions, transport pathways and time trends of POPs to the TP are not well understood. Here polystyrene-divinylbenzene copolymer resin (XAD)-based passive air samplers (PASs) were deployed at 16 Tibetan background sites from 2007 to 2012 to gain further insight into spatial patterns and temporal trends of OCPs and PCBs. The southeastern TP was characterized by dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT)-related chemicals delivered by Indian monsoon air masses. The northern and northwestern TP displayed the greatest absolute concentration and relative abundance of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in the atmosphere, caused by the westerly-driven European air masses. The interactions between the DDT polluted Indian monsoon air and the clean westerly winds formed a transition zone in central Tibet, where both DDT and HCB were the dominant chemicals. Based on 5 years of continuous sampling, our data indicated declining concentrations of HCB and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) across the Tibetan region. Inter-annual trends of DDT class chemicals, however, showed less variation during this 5-year sampling period, which may be due to the ongoing usage of DDT in India. This paper demonstrates the possibility of using POP fingerprints to investigate the climate interactions and the validity of using PAS to derive inter-annual atmospheric POP time trends.

  11. Linking Indigenous Knowledge and Observed Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Chief Clarence; Bynum, Nora; Johnson, Liz; King, Ursula; Mustonen, Tero; Neofotis, Peter; Oettle, Noel; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Sakakibara, Chie; Shadrin, Chief Vyacheslav; Vicarelli, Marta; Waterhouse, Jon; Weeks, Brian

    2010-01-01

    We present indigenous knowledge narratives and explore their connections to documented temperature and other climate changes and observed climate change impact studies. We then propose a framework for enhancing integration of these indigenous narratives of observed climate change with global assessments. Our aim is to contribute to the thoughtful and respectful integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific data and analysis, so that this rich body of knowledge can inform science, and so that indigenous and traditional peoples can use the tools and methods of science for the benefit of their communities if they choose to do so. Enhancing ways of understanding such connections are critical as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment process gets underway.

  12. Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2003-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

  13. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  14. Quantifying the Response Time of a Lake–Groundwater Interacting System to Climatic Perturbation

    OpenAIRE

    Yicheng Gong; Ganming Liu; Schwartz, Franklin W.

    2015-01-01

    Response time, describing how quickly a disturbed system would reach a new equilibrium, has been helpful to hydrogeologists in characterizing and understanding the hydrogeological systems. This study examined the complex response times associated with lake–groundwater perturbed by climate. Simulated hydraulic heads and lake stage values derived from a 3-D, MODFLOW-based model were used to calculate the response times for a closed, groundwater-fed lake system. Although obviously coupled, the r...

  15. Experimentation and Simulation of a Small-Scale Adsorption Cooling System in Temperate Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Sébastien; Hennaut, Samuel; Maas, Stefan; Andre, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the analysis of the operation of a solar cooling system based upon an adsorption chiller. The air-conditioned building studied is a laboratory located in a temperate climate region (Belgium). The monitoring reveals thermal and electrical coefficient of performance (COP) of the cooling system for different time scale (10s to 1 month). The whole system including solar collectors, adsorption machine, recooling unit and hot storage is simulated. The models are th...

  16. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-05-01

    -latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

  17. Effects of cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

  18. Aerial Moisture Transport in the Earth Climate System: A Study of the Mean State and Perturbations Due to CO2-Doubling using Numerical Water Tracers and a Novel Linear Algebra Analysis Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, H. A.; Bitz, C. M.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Noone, D. C.

    2015-12-01

    Aerial moisture transport is fundamental to the climate system, and numerical water tracers (WTs) are a powerful tool for understanding this transport. Here, we present a novel matrix operator framework that permits systematic, rather than ad hoc, analysis of WT results. We use this framework to study moisture transport, from evaporation (or sublimation) to precipitation, in a state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) which incorporates WTs. This framework separates moisture divergence over a given tagged region into local divergence (the export of locally-evaporated moisture) and remote convergence (the import of remotely-evaporated moisture). The remote convergence term may be further subdivided into zonal, meridional, intrabasin, and interbasin parts, and can be used to predict precipitation given a particular spatial pattern of evaporation (demonstrated in Figure 1a). Findings from analysis of the preindustrial mean state concur with findings from earlier moisture transport studies: water evaporated at the equator and high latitudes tends to precipitate locally, whereas water evaporated in the subtropics and midlatitudes tends to precipitate remotely; water evaporated in the subtropics diverges both equatorward and poleward of its source region, while water evaporated in the midlatitudes mostly diverges poleward. New insights from the method reveal fundamental differences between the major ocean basins, with the Atlantic basin having the largest local divergence, smallest remote convergence, and greatest interbasin moisture export. With quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling, we find that a greater fraction of locally-evaporated moisture is exported, moisture exchange between ocean basins increases (shown in Figure 2c), and moisture convergence within a given basin shifts towards greater distances between moisture source and sink regions. These changes can be understood in terms of a greater moisture residence time with warming, or, equivalently, a robust increase in

  19. Designing climate-smart conservation: guidance and case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Lara; Hoffman, Jennifer; Drews, Carlos; Mielbrecht, Eric

    2010-02-01

    To be successful, conservation practitioners and resource managers must fully integrate the effects of climate change into all planning projects. Some conservation practitioners are beginning to develop, test, and implement new approaches that are designed to deal with climate change. We devised four basic tenets that are essential in climate-change adaptation for conservation: protect adequate and appropriate space, reduce nonclimate stresses, use adaptive management to implement and test climate-change adaptation strategies, and work to reduce the rate and extent of climate change to reduce overall risk. To illustrate how this approach applies in the real world, we explored case studies of coral reefs in the Florida Keys; mangrove forests in Fiji, Tanzania, and Cameroon; sea-level rise and sea turtles in the Caribbean; tigers in the Sundarbans of India; and national planning in Madagascar. Through implementation of these tenets conservation efforts in each of these regions can be made more robust in the face of climate change. Although these approaches require reconsidering some traditional approaches to conservation, this new paradigm is technologically, economically, and intellectually feasible. PMID:20121842

  20. Organizational climate and hospital nurses' caring practices: a mixed-methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roch, Geneviève; Dubois, Carl-Ardy; Clarke, Sean P

    2014-06-01

    Organizational climate in healthcare settings influences patient outcomes, but its effect on nursing care delivery remains poorly understood. In this mixed-methods study, nurse surveys (N = 292) were combined with a qualitative case study of 15 direct-care registered nurses (RNs), nursing personnel, and managers. Organizational climate explained 11% of the variation in RNs' reported frequency of caring practices. Qualitative data suggested that caring practices were affected by the interplay of organizational climate dimensions with patients and nurses characteristics. Workload intensity and role ambiguity led RNs to leave many caring practices to practical nurses and assistive personnel. Systemic interventions are needed to improve organizational climate and to support RNs' involvement in a full range of caring practices.

  1. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  2. Climate Ocean Modeling on a Beowulf Class System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.; Wang, P.; Bondarenko, M.

    2000-01-01

    With the growing power and shrinking cost of personal computers. the availability of fast ethernet interconnections, and public domain software packages, it is now possible to combine them to build desktop parallel computers (named Beowulf or PC clusters) at a fraction of what it would cost to buy systems of comparable power front supercomputer companies. This led as to build and assemble our own sys tem. specifically for climate ocean modeling. In this article, we present our experience with such a system, discuss its network performance, and provide some performance comparison data with both HP SPP2000 and Cray T3E for an ocean Model used in present-day oceanographic research.

  3. The Characteristics of Earth System Thinking of Science Gifted Students in relation to Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Duk Ho; Cho, Kyu Seong; Hong, Deok Pyo; Park, Kyeong Jin

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to investigate the perception of earth system thinking of science gifted students in future problem solving (FPS) in relation to climate changes. In order to this study, the research problem associated with climate changes was developed through a literature review. The thirty seven science gifted students participated in lessons. The ideas in problem solving process of science gifted students were analyzed using the semantic network analysis method. The results are as follows. In the problem solving processes, science gifted students are ''changes of the sunlight by water layer'', ''changes of the Earth''s temperature'', ''changes of the air pressure'', '' change of the wind and weather''were represented in order. On other hand, regard to earth system thinking for climate changes, while science gifted students were used sub components related to atmospheres frequently, they were used sub components related to biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere a little. But, the analytical results of the structural relationship between the sub components related to earth system, they were recognised that biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere used very important in network structures. In conclusion, science gifted students were understood well that components of the earth system are influencing each other. Keywords : Science gifted students, Future problem solving, Climate change, Earth system thinking

  4. The research in climate system modeling, simulating and forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ The major point of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) is to predict the real-time climate change in seasons and years. Climate disasters in China occurred frequently, and resulted in a 200 billion RMB lost annually.

  5. Addressing Value and Belief Systems on Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K. S.

    2012-12-01

    influence classroom climate instruction. In order to assist this educator group, CLiPSE has aligned a sub-set of the Climate and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) education resources to 11 SEUS state standards in order to better enable educators to implement climate topics in their classrooms. As a potential method to address the unique belief systems in the SEUS, CLiPSE has determined that the best way to engage individuals in the SEUS on the topic of climate change is to invite them into an honest dialogue surrounding climate. To facilitate these conversations effectively, CLiPSE utilizes a dialogical community model that values diversity, encourages respect for one another, recognizes and articulates viewpoints, and prioritizes understanding over resolution. CLiPSE emphasizes people's values and beliefs as they relate to climate change information. Results from pilot studies indicate that this is a promising method to bring together diverse individuals on the climate change topic and initiate the conversation about this very important issue that can often be considered "taboo" in the SEUS.

  6. An assessment of the solar irradiance record for climate studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kopp Greg

    2014-01-01

    Total solar irradiance, the spatially and spectrally integrated radiant output from the Sun at a mean Sun-Earth distance of 1 astronomical unit, provides nearly all the energy driving the Earth’s climate system. Variations in this energy, particularly over long time scales, contribute to changes in Earth’s climate and have been linked to historical glaciation and inter-glacial periods as well as having a small effect on more recent global warming. Accurate measurements of solar irradiances re...

  7. Parallelizing Climate Data Management System, version 3 (CDMS3)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, D.; Williams, D. N.; Painter, J.; Doutriaux, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Climate Data Management System is an object-oriented data management system, specialized for organizing multidimensional, gridded data used in climate analyses for data observation and simulation. The basic unit of computation in CDMS3 is the variable, which consist of a multidimensional array that represents climate information in four dimensions corresponding to: time, pressure levels, latitudes, and longitudes. As model become more precise in their computation, the volume of data generated becomes bigger and difficult to handle due to the limit of computational resources. Model today can produce data a time frequency of one hourly, three hourly, or six hourly for spatial footprint close to satellite data used run models. The amount of time for scientists to analyze the data and retrieve useful information is more and more unmanageable. Parallelizing libraries such as CMDS3 would ease the burden of working with such big datasets. Multiple approaches of parallelizing are possible. The most obvious one is embarrassingly parallel or pleasingly parallel programming where each computer node processes one file at a time. A more challenging approach is to send a piece of the data to each node for computation and each node will save the results at its right place in a file as a slab of data. This is possible with Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). A final approach would be the use of Open Multi-Processing API (OpenMP) where a master thread is split in multiple threads for different sections of the main code. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. This poster bring to light each benefit of these methods and seek to find an optimal solution to compute climate data analyses in a efficient fashion using one or a mixtures of these parallelized methods.

  8. A study on relationship between organizational climate and creativity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Akbar Ahmadi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between organizational climate and women employees' creativity of Tabriz Red Crescent Organization. The research method is descriptive correlation performed among 120 women employed at the Red Crescent and 100 cases were selected for the proposed study. For data collection, Hoy and Miskel (2005's organizational climate and Randsyp creativity questionnaires with 0.78 and 0.82 Cronbach's alpha coefficients were used. Pearson correlation and multiple regressions were used to analyze research hypotheses. Results showed that there was a significant relationship between two indices of manager and subordinate behaviors and creativity. In addition, in investigating the relationship between climate and creativity components, findings showed that there was a significant relationship only between cooperation and pretending to job dimensions and creativity. This study also has shown that managers' behavior is closed and employees' behavior is more open than managers are.

  9. Hydrological impact of climate change: A sensitivity study for the netherlands. Doctoral thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandsma, T.

    1995-02-20

    The main objective of this study is to obtain boundaries within which the impact of climate change, due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, will fall for various aspects of the water management system of the Netherlands. The following selection has been made of aspects of the water management system of the Netherlands that will be dealt with in this study: (1) sewer systems; (2) urban groundwater levels; (3) public water supply; (4) agricultural water supply; (5) discharge of polders.

  10. Climatic Instability Study of Lanzhou since Last Glacial Maximum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Guifang; Peng Hongxia; Huang Changsheng; Yin Hongfu; Li Chang'an

    2005-01-01

    Organic carbon isotopes, CaCO3 content, coupled with carbonate carbon and oxygen isotopes are presented for identifying the climatic instability of Lanzhou from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A wavelet analysis of these indices was conducted in the Hongzuisi Section, Lanzhou area. The results indicate that some important variations dominated by global factors occurred in 11.5, 13.9, and 15.1 kaB.P. Respectively. In addition, several abrupt oscillations on different time scales during the Holocene can be revealed, indicating the complexity of the climatic system. Although the mechanism of these events has not been interpreted successfully, wavelet analysis can offer a valuable mathematic tool for a detailed analysis and greater understanding of climatic instability, thus providing a useful basis for the research of abrupt events.

  11. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  12. Methodological Issues on Climate Change Mitigation Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lene; Borges, Pedro Castro; Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses national greenhouse gas emission abatement costing studies as a case to discuss influential factors that determine their outcome and achievement. Costing studies are seen as part of an interconnected whole social process where actors (decision makers, clients, facilitators, experts....... Some methodological principles are suggested to address such contradictions, structure, and change th einteractions between the different dimensions of hte social process framework. Two studies are mentioned in which ideas are presented on how to deal with the central contradictions. Applying...

  13. Use of predictions in temperature control in buildings: A passive climate system application. Doctoral thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lute, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    The thesis consists of two parts. The first part is a general part about predictive control in the indoor climate field. The second part deals with the control system implementation in the passive indoor climate system. The fundamentals, general principles and mechanisms of the class of predictive controllers and control strategies with a linear objective function are described in chapter 2. Chapter 3 deals with the typical characteristics of the indoor and outdoor climate, that have to be incorporated in a predictive control system to make it a successful and robust predictive indoor climate control system. A general scheme for a predictive indoor climate system, that has self-learning features, is described in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 introduces the passive indoor climate system to which a predictive control strategy is applied. Finally, in Chapter 6, a test facility for passive climate systems, referred to as the TU Delft test cell, is described.

  14. Ecosystem biophysical memory in the southwestern North America climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To elucidate the potential role of vegetation to act as a memory source in the southwestern North America climate system, we explore correlation structures of remotely sensed vegetation dynamics with precipitation, temperature and teleconnection indices over 1982–2006 for six ecoregions. We found that lagged correlations between vegetation dynamics and climate variables are modulated by the dominance of monsoonal or Mediterranean regimes and ecosystem-specific physiological processes. Subtropical and tropical ecosystems exhibit a one month lag positive correlation with precipitation, a zero- to one-month lag negative correlation with temperature, and modest negative effects of sea surface temperature (SST). Mountain forests have a zero month lag negative correlation with precipitation, a zero–one month lag negative correlation with temperature, and no significant correlation with SSTs. Deserts show a strong one–four month lag positive correlation with precipitation, a low zero–two month lag negative correlation with temperature, and a high four–eight month lag positive correlation with SSTs. The ecoregion-specific biophysical memories identified offer an opportunity to improve the predictability of land–atmosphere interactions and vegetation feedbacks onto climate. (letter)

  15. Climatic controls on arid continental basin margin systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gough, Amy; Clarke, Stuart; Richards, Philip; Milodowski, Antoni

    2016-04-01

    Alluvial fans are both dominant and long-lived within continental basin margin systems. As a result, they commonly interact with a variety of depositional systems that exist at different times in the distal extent of the basin as the basin evolves. The deposits of the distal basin often cycle between those with the potential to act as good aquifers and those with the potential to act as good aquitards. The interactions between the distal deposits and the basin margin fans can have a significant impact upon basin-scale fluid flow. The fans themselves are commonly considered as relatively homogeneous, but their sedimentology is controlled by a variety of factors, including: 1) differing depositional mechanisms; 2) localised autocyclic controls; 3) geometrical and temporal interactions with deposits of the basin centre; and, 4) long-term allocyclic climatic variations. This work examines the basin margin systems of the Cutler Group sediments of the Paradox Basin, western U.S.A and presents generalised facies models for the Cutler Group alluvial fans as well as for the zone of interaction between these fans and the contemporaneous environments in the basin centre, at a variety of scales. Small-scale controls on deposition include climate, tectonics, base level and sediment supply. It has been ascertained that long-term climatic alterations were the main control on these depositional systems. Models have been constructed to highlight how both long-term and short-term alterations in the climatic regime can affect the sedimentation in the basin. These models can be applied to better understand similar, but poorly exposed, alluvial fan deposits. The alluvial fans of the Brockram Facies, northern England form part of a once-proposed site for low-level nuclear waste decommissioning. As such, it is important to understand the sedimentology, three-dimensional geometry, and the proposed connectivity of the deposits from the perspective of basin-scale fluid flow. The developed

  16. Performance investigation of solid desiccant evaporative cooling system configurations in different climatic zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Five configurations of a DEC system are analyzed in five climate zones. • DEC system model configurations are developed in Dymola/Modelica. • Performance analysis predicted a suitable DEC system configuration for each climate zone. • Results show that climate of Vienna, Sao Paulo, and Adelaide favors the ventilated-dunkle cycle. • While ventilation cycle configuration suits the climate of Karachi and Shanghai. - Abstract: Performance of desiccant evaporative cooling (DEC) system configurations is strongly influenced by the climate conditions and varies widely in different climate zones. Finding the optimal configuration of DEC systems for a specific climatic zone is tedious and time consuming. This investigation conducts performance analysis of five DEC system configurations under climatic conditions of five cities from different zones: Vienna, Karachi, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, and Adelaide. On the basis of operating cycle, three standard and two modified system configurations (ventilation, recirculation, dunkle cycles; ventilated-recirculation and ventilated-dunkle cycles) are analyzed in these five climate zones. Using an advance equation-based object-oriented (EOO) modeling and simulation approach, optimal configurations of a DEC system are determined for each climate zone. Based on the hourly climate data of each zone for its respective design cooling day, performance of each system configuration is estimated using three performance parameters: cooling capacity, COP, and cooling energy delivered. The results revealed that the continental/micro-thermal climate of Vienna, temperate/mesothermal climate of Sao Paulo, and dry-summer subtropical climate of Adelaide favor the use of ventilated-dunkle cycle configuration with average COP of 0.405, 0.89 and 1.01 respectively. While ventilation cycle based DEC configuration suits arid and semiarid climate of Karachi and another category of temperate/mesothermal climate of Shanghai with average COP of

  17. A Joint Approach to the Study of S-Type and P-Type Habitable Zones in Binary Systems: New Results in the View of 3-D Planetary Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuntz, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    In two previous papers, given by Cuntz (2014a,b) [ApJ 780, A14 (19 pages); arXiv:1409.3796], a comprehensive approach has been provided for the study of S-type and P-type habitable zones in stellar binary systems, P-type orbits occur when the planet orbits both binary components, whereas in case of S-type orbits, the planet orbits only one of the binary components with the second component considered a perturbator. The selected approach considers a variety of aspects, including (1) the consideration of a joint constraint including orbital stability and a habitable region for a possible system planet through the stellar radiative energy fluxes; (2) the treatment of conservative (CHZ), general (GHZ) and extended zones of habitability (EHZ) [see Paper I for definitions] for the systems as previously defined for the Solar System; (3) the provision of a combined formalism for the assessment of both S-type and P-type habitability; in particular, mathematical criteria are devised for which kind of system S-type and P-type habitability is realized; and (4) the applications of the theoretical approach to systems with the stars in different kinds of orbits, including elliptical orbits (the most expected case). Particularly, an algebraic formalism for the assessment of both S-type and P-type habitability is given based on a higher-order polynomial expression. Thus, an a prior specification for the presence or absence of S-type or P-type radiative habitable zones is - from a mathematical point of view - neither necessary nor possible, as those are determined by the adopted formalism. Previously, numerous applications of the method have been given encompassing theoretical star-panet systems and and observations. Most recently, this method has been upgraded to include recent studies of 3-D planetary climate models. Originally, this type of work affects the extent and position of habitable zones around single stars; however, it has also profound consequence for the habitable

  18. Identifying User Experience Goals for Interactive Climate Management Business Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Torkil; Barlow, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents findings from interpretative phenomenological interviews about the user experience of interactive climate management with six growers and crop consultants. The focus of user experience research has been on quantitative studies of consumers’ initial usage experiences, for example...... of mobile phones or e-commerce websites. In contrast, this empirical paper provides an example of how to capture user experience in work contexts and with a qualitative methodology. We present a model of the essence of the emotional user experience of interactive climate management. Then we suggest...... interpretations of these experiences in the forms of nomological networks of emotions by expanding the model for each of three main factors. In conclusion, the findings for two main stakeholder groups are reported in a user experience target table, which can be the basis for future research on user experience...

  19. Allocating greenhouse gas emissions in the German federal system: Regional interests and federal climate governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The academic debate on climate policies often portrays Germany as one of the most successful cases. Despite its federal system of joint decision-making, most studies of German climate policy focus primarily upon activities at the national level while disregarding the heterogeneous economic interests and veto options of the Länder. Using the cases on renewable energy policy and emission trading, we analyze the subnational interests and institutional mechanisms that shape the intergovernmental negotiations and policy outcomes within the federated system. The cases confirm assumptions made by general research on German federalism, according to which strategies for the externalization and compensation of costs are of particular importance for redistributive policies, and the EU plays a major role in dissolving potential barriers to the process of federal policy formation. Contrary to the reservations often expressed, we demonstrate that climate policies have led to an increased economic and political competition between the Länder and have supported effective solutions. However, recent shortfalls in the effectiveness of emission trading and in the cost-efficiency of renewable energy policies indicate that redistributive conflicts in the allocation of greenhouse gas emissions have to be addressed more systematically within the German (and the European) system(s) of joint decision-making. - Highlights: • Profound study of renewable energy policy and emission trading in Germany. • Study of joint-decision making in climate policy in the German federal system. • Intergovernmental conflicts and agreements in allocating GHG emissions. • Policy outcomes, potentials and restrictions of federal climate governance

  20. A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

  1. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  2. Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandramowli, Shankar N.

    Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan

  3. Integrated food–energy systems for climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanski Anne

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Food production needs to increase by 70%, mostly through yield increases, to feed the world in 2050. Increases in productivity achieved in the past are attributed in part to the significant use of fossil fuels. Energy use in agriculture is therefore also expected to rise in the future, further contributing to greenhouse emissions. At the same time, more than two-fifths of the world’s population still depends on unsustainably harvested wood energy for cooking and heating. Both types of energy use have detrimental impacts on the climate and natural resources. Continuing on this path is not an option as it will put additional pressure on the already stressed natural resource base and local livelihoods, while climate change is further reducing the resilience of agro-ecosystems and smallholder farmers. Ecosystem approaches that combine both food and energy production, such as agroforestry or integrated crop–livestock–biogas systems, could substantially mitigate these risks while providing both food and energy to rural and urban populations. Information and understanding on how to change course through the implementation of the practices outlined in this paper are urgently needed. Yet the scientific basis of such integrated systems, which is essential to inform decision-makers and to secure policy support, is still relatively scarce. The author therefore argues that new assessment methodologies based on a systems-oriented analysis are needed for analyzing these complex, multidisciplinary and large-scale phenomena.

  4. Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravelo, A. C.

    2003-12-01

    The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must

  5. Creating a Learning Climate: A South African Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrim, Nasima Mohamed Hoosen; Basson, Johan Schutte

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether there were differences in how one public and two private South African organizations created a learning climate. Design/methodology/approach: This article is based on a survey and comparative analysis of specific departments in a chemical and gas company, an insurance company, and a…

  6. Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahowald

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

  7. Dynamics of the larch taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Ningning [Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8601 (Japan); Yasunari, Tetsuzo [Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601 (Japan); Ohta, Takeshi, E-mail: zhangningning@lasg.iap.ac.cn [Study Consortium for Earth-Life Interactive Systems (SELIS) of Nagoya University, Nagoya (Japan)

    2011-04-15

    Larch taiga, also known as Siberian boreal forest, plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. Recent in situ observations have suggested that larch-dominated taiga and permafrost behave as a coupled eco-climate system across a broad boreal zone of Siberia. However, neither field-based observations nor modeling experiments have clarified the synthesized dynamics of this system. Here, using a new dynamic vegetation model coupled with a permafrost model, we reveal the processes of interaction between the taiga and permafrost. The model demonstrates that under the present climate conditions in eastern Siberia, larch trees maintain permafrost by controlling the seasonal thawing of permafrost, which in turn maintains the taiga by providing sufficient water to the larch trees. The experiment without permafrost processes showed that larch would decrease in biomass and be replaced by a dominance of pine and other species that suffer drier hydroclimatic conditions. In the coupled system, fire not only plays a destructive role in the forest, but also, in some cases, preserves larch domination in forests. Climate warming sensitivity experiments show that this coupled system cannot be maintained under warming of about 2 deg. C or more. Under such conditions, a forest with typical boreal tree species (dark conifer and deciduous species) would become dominant, decoupled from the permafrost processes. This study thus suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia, with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate.

  8. Cloud-Enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-Service using Reanalysis data: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, D.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; McInerney, M.; Tamkin, G.; Potter, G. L.; Thompson, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) maintains advanced data capabilities and facilities that allow researchers to access the enormous volume of data generated by weather and climate models. The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NCCS are merging their efforts to provide Climate Analytics-as-a-Service for the comparative study of the major reanalysis projects: ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. These reanalyses have been repackaged to netCDF4 file format following the CMIP5 Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention prior to be sequenced into the Hadoop Distributed File System ( HDFS ). A small set of operations that represent a common starting point in many analysis workflows was then created: min, max, sum, count, variance and average. In this example, Reanalysis data exploration was performed with the use of Hadoop MapReduce and accessibility was achieved using the Climate Data Service(CDS) application programming interface (API) created at NCCS. This API provides a uniform treatment of large amount of data. In this case study, we have limited our exploration to 2 variables, temperature and precipitation, using 3 operations, min, max and avg and using 30-year of Reanalysis data for 3 regions of the world: global, polar, subtropical.

  9. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  10. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  11. Long-term climate sensitivity of an integrated water supply system: The role of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-09-15

    The assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability on water supply systems depends not only on possible variations of the resources availability, but also on the variation of the demand. In this framework, a robust estimation of direct (climate induced) and indirect (anthropogenically induced) effects of climate change is mandatory to design mitigation measures, especially in those regions of the planet where the groundwater equilibrium is strongly perturbed by exploitations for irrigation purposes. The main goal of this contribution is to propose a comprehensive model that integrates distributed crop water requirements with surface and groundwater mass balance, able to consider management rules of the water supply system. The proposed overall model, implemented, calibrated and validated for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from a surface artificial reservoir and from groundwater. The relative contributions of groundwater recharges and withdrawals to the aquifer stress have been evaluated under different climate perturbations, with emphasis on irrigation practices. Results point out that irrigated agriculture primarily affects groundwater discharge, indicating that ecosystem services connected to river base flow are particularly exposed to climate variation in irrigated areas. Moreover, findings show that the recharge both to surface and to groundwater is mainly affected by drier climate conditions, while hotter conditions have a major impact on the water demand. The non-linearity arising from combined drier and hotter conditions may exacerbate the aquifer stress by exposing it to massive sea-water intrusion. PMID:27161129

  12. The Mars climate for a photovoltaic system operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appelbaum, Joseph; Flood, Dennis J.

    1989-01-01

    Detailed information on the climatic conditions on Mars are very desirable for the design of photovoltaic systems for establishing outposts on the Martian surface. The distribution of solar insolation (global, direct and diffuse) and ambient temperature is addressed. This data are given at the Viking lander's locations and can also be used, to a first approximation, for other latitudes. The insolation data is based on measured optical depth of the Martian atmosphere derived from images taken of the sun with a special diode on the Viking cameras; and computation based on multiple wavelength and multiple scattering of the solar radiation. The ambient temperature (diurnal and yearly distribution) is based on direct measurements with a thermocouple at 1.6 m above the ground at the Viking lander locations. The insolation and ambient temperature information are short term data. New information about Mars may be forthcoming in the future from new analysis of previously collected data or from future flight missions. The Mars climate data for photovoltaic system operation will thus be updated accordingly.

  13. 'Initial' Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Xueli

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the effects of 'initial' soil moisture (SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations (denoted as CTL), a series of sensitivity experi-ments were conducted, including the DRY and WET experiments, in which the simulated 'initial' SM over the region 30-50°N, 75 -105°E was only 5% and 50%, and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL, respectively. The results show that SM change can modify the subsequent climate in not only the SM-change region proper but also the far downstream regions in Eastern and even Northeastern China. The SM-change effects are generally more prominent in the WET than in the DRY experiments. After the SM is initially increased, the SM in the SM-change region is always higher than that in the CTL, the latent (sensible) heat flux there increases (decreases), and the surface air temperature decreases. Spatially, the most prominent changes in the WET experiments are surface air temperature decrease, geopotential height decrease and corresponding abnormal changes of cyclonic wind vectors at the mid-upper troposphere levels. Generally opposite effects exist in the DRY experiments but with much weaker intensity. In addi-tion, the differences between the results obtained from the two sets of sensitivity experiments and those of the CTL are not always consistent with the variation of the initial SM. Being different from the variation of temperature, the rainfall modifications caused by initial SM change are not so distinct and in fact they show some common features in the WET and DRY experiments. This might imply that SM is only one of the factors that impact the subsequent climate, and its effect is involved in complex processes within the atmosphere, which needs further investigation.

  14. Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skaggs, Richard; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Frumhoff, Peter; Lowry, Thomas; Middleton, Richard; Pate, Ron; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Arnold, J. G.; Averyt, Kristen; Janetos, Anthony C.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Rice, Jennie S.; Rose, Steven K.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides a framework to characterize and understand the important elements of climate and energy-water-land (EWL) system interactions. It identifies many of the important issues, discusses our understanding of those issues, and presents a long-term research program research needs to address the priority scientific challenges and gaps in our understanding. Much of the discussion is organized around two discrete case studies with the broad themes of (1) extreme events and (2) regional intercomparisons. These case studies help demonstrate unique ways in which energy-water-land interactions can occur and be influenced by climate.

  15. Building integration of photovoltaic systems in cold climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athienitis, Andreas K.; Candanedo, José A.

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents some of the research activities on building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems developed by the Solar and Daylighting Laboratory at Concordia University. BIPV systems offer considerable advantages as compared to stand-alone PV installations. For example, BIPV systems can play a role as essential components of the building envelope. BIPV systems operate as distributed power generators using the most widely available renewable source. Since BIPV systems do not require additional space, they are especially appropriate for urban environments. BIPV/Thermal (BIPV/T) systems may use exterior air to extract useful heat from the PV panels, cooling them and thereby improving their electric performance. The recovered thermal energy can then be used for space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) heating, supporting the utilization of BIVP/T as an appropriate technology for cold climates. BIPV and BIPV/T systems are the subject of several ongoing research and demonstration projects (in both residential and commercial buildings) led by Concordia University. The concept of integrated building design and operation is at the centre of these efforts: BIPV and BIPV/T systems must be treated as part of a comprehensive strategy taking into account energy conservation measures, passive solar design, efficient lighting and HVAC systems, and integration of other renewable energy systems (solar thermal, heat pumps, etc.). Concordia Solar Laboratory performs fundamental research on heat transfer and modeling of BIPV/T systems, numerical and experimental investigations on BIPV and BIPV/T in building energy systems and non-conventional applications (building-attached greenhouses), and the design and optimization of buildings and communities.

  16. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken place. A

  17. A study on safety climate at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the current study, we define safety climate as an organizational environment that induces members of the organization to give consideration to safety or take safety actions. It is of utmost importance that people holding managerial positions in an organization have a good understanding of the characteristics of the safety climate of the organization and implement safety promotion activities effectively. In the current research, we studied the rating scales and the characteristics of a safety climate. A survey was conducted, targeting technical engineers who belong to the three power stations of Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. The questionnaire mainly consisted of questions concerning safety measures taken by individuals and questions concerning safety measures taken by the organization, to which the individuals belong. As a result of a factor analysis of the responses, we extracted five factors, namely, 'confidence in knowledge and skill', attitude of supervisors,' 'safety education in workplace', 'clarity of tasks' and 'safety confirmation/report'. In studying the rating scales of the safety climate, we selected five items from each of the above five factors, and used the total scores of the ratings of the five items as scores of each factor. Then, we examined the correlation between scores of personal factors and scores of organizational environment factors. We treated the scores of safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill', which are personal factors, as criterion variables, and the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks', which are organizational environment factors, as predictor variables. As a result, we found that levels of 'safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill' can be deduced from the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks.' Hence, we have decided to use these three organizational environment

  18. STUDYING OF SAFETY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY AT STEEL INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan DARVISH

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of safety climate used as a practical means has determined and assessed potential problems relevant to safety issues in an organization and can be used in individuals’ performance and work efficiency and decreasing rate of incidents ;as well as; guidance to provide safety organization policy and comparison of safety performance in different organizations. The study wants to determine and prepare safety climate profile and application of its results in improving safety situation. In this study, applied tools presented by Loughborough University are used to evaluate safety climate in one of steel industries and data is collected through questionnaire, group discussions or purposeful interviews and observations, and safety climate score was obtained in 17 scopes. Calculating the score of each safety climate domain and preparing the profile indicated there is the average rate (4.89 2 in the safety climate of the industry.

  19. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  20. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

  1. Understanding the Impacts of Soil, Climate, and Farming Practices on Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: A Simulation Study in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godde, Cécile M; Thorburn, Peter J; Biggs, Jody S; Meier, Elizabeth A

    2016-01-01

    Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to improve soil biological, physical, and chemical properties. The review of literature pertaining to soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics within Australian grain farming systems does not enable us to conclude on the best farming practices to increase or maintain SOC for a specific combination of soil and climate. This study aimed to further explore the complex interactions of soil, climate, and farming practices on SOC. We undertook a modeling study with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator modeling framework, by combining contrasting Australian soils, climates, and farming practices (crop rotations, and management within rotations, such as fertilization, tillage, and residue management) in a factorial design. This design resulted in the transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations, giving soil-climate combinations that do not occur in the study area to help provide insights into the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. We statistically analyzed the model's outputs to determinate the relative contributions of soil parameters, climate, and farming practices on SOC. The initial SOC content had the largest impact on the value of SOC, followed by the climate and the fertilization practices. These factors explained 66, 18, and 15% of SOC variations, respectively, after 80 years of constant farming practices in the simulation. Tillage and stubble management had the lowest impacts on SOC. This study highlighted the possible negative impact on SOC of a chickpea phase in a wheat-chickpea rotation and the potential positive impact of a cover crop in a sub-tropical climate (QLD, Australia) on SOC. It also showed the complexities in managing to achieve increased SOC, while simultaneously aiming to minimize nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and nitrate leaching in farming systems. The transposition of contrasting soils and climates in

  2. Understanding the Impacts of Soil, Climate and Farming Practices on Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: a Simulation Study in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecile Marie Godde

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to improve soil biological, physical and chemical properties. The review of literature pertaining to soil organic carbon (SOC dynamics within Australian grain farming systems does not enable us to conclude on the best farming practices to increase or maintain SOC for a specific combination of soil and climate. This study aimed to further explore the complex interactions of soil, climate and farming practices on SOC. We undertook a modeling study with the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator modeling framework, by combining contrasting Australian soils, climates and farming practices (crop rotations, and management within rotations, such as fertilization, tillage and residue management in a factorial design. This design resulted in the transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations, giving soil-climate combinations that do not occur in the study area to help provide insights into the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. We statistically analyzed the model’s outputs to determinate the relative contributions of soil parameters, climate and farming practices on SOC. The initial SOC content had the largest impact on the value of SOC, followed by the climate and the fertilization practices. These factors explained 66%, 18% and 15% of SOC variations, respectively, after 80 years of constant farming practices in the simulation. Tillage and stubble management had the lowest impacts on SOC. This study highlighted the possible negative impact on SOC of a chickpea phase in a wheat-chickpea rotation and the potential positive impact of a cover crop in a sub-tropical climate (Queensland on SOC. It also showed the complexities in managing to achieve increased SOC, while simultaneously aiming to minimize nitrous oxide (N2O emissions and nitrate leaching in farming systems. The transposition of contrasting soils

  3. Understanding the Impacts of Soil, Climate, and Farming Practices on Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: A Simulation Study in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godde, Cécile M; Thorburn, Peter J; Biggs, Jody S; Meier, Elizabeth A

    2016-01-01

    Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has the capacity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to improve soil biological, physical, and chemical properties. The review of literature pertaining to soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics within Australian grain farming systems does not enable us to conclude on the best farming practices to increase or maintain SOC for a specific combination of soil and climate. This study aimed to further explore the complex interactions of soil, climate, and farming practices on SOC. We undertook a modeling study with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator modeling framework, by combining contrasting Australian soils, climates, and farming practices (crop rotations, and management within rotations, such as fertilization, tillage, and residue management) in a factorial design. This design resulted in the transposition of contrasting soils and climates in our simulations, giving soil-climate combinations that do not occur in the study area to help provide insights into the importance of the climate constraints on SOC. We statistically analyzed the model's outputs to determinate the relative contributions of soil parameters, climate, and farming practices on SOC. The initial SOC content had the largest impact on the value of SOC, followed by the climate and the fertilization practices. These factors explained 66, 18, and 15% of SOC variations, respectively, after 80 years of constant farming practices in the simulation. Tillage and stubble management had the lowest impacts on SOC. This study highlighted the possible negative impact on SOC of a chickpea phase in a wheat-chickpea rotation and the potential positive impact of a cover crop in a sub-tropical climate (QLD, Australia) on SOC. It also showed the complexities in managing to achieve increased SOC, while simultaneously aiming to minimize nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and nitrate leaching in farming systems. The transposition of contrasting soils and climates in

  4. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in the pastoral livestock system of Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tumbo, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Kimambo, A.; Rwehumbiza, F.

    2011-08-15

    farmers (such as those involving temporary and permanent migration). From this study, some policy-relevant recommendations have been formulated: 1. The need to establish an environmental section in the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development (MLFD). 2. The necessity for increased investment systems and structures for animal agriculture. 3. The need for increased investment in research, extension and training. 4. The requirement for more bottom-up studies on the economics of climate change in agriculture to be undertaken in order to fill knowledge gaps, apply existing and emerging methods, and improve the estimates.

  5. Quantitative assessment of resilience of a water supply system under rainfall reduction due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarasinghe, Pradeep; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Barnes, Paul; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2016-09-01

    A water supply system can be impacted by rainfall reduction due to climate change, thereby reducing its supply potential. This highlights the need to understand the system resilience, which refers to the ability to maintain service under various pressures (or disruptions). Currently, the concept of resilience has not yet been widely applied in managing water supply systems. This paper proposed three technical resilience indictors to assess the resilience of a water supply system. A case study analysis was undertaken of the Water Grid system of Queensland State, Australia, to showcase how the proposed indicators can be applied to assess resilience. The research outcomes confirmed that the use of resilience indicators is capable of identifying critical conditions in relation to the water supply system operation, such as the maximum allowable rainfall reduction for the system to maintain its operation without failure. Additionally, resilience indicators also provided useful insight regarding the sensitivity of the water supply system to a changing rainfall pattern in the context of climate change, which represents the system's stability when experiencing pressure. The study outcomes will help in the quantitative assessment of resilience and provide improved guidance to system operators to enhance the efficiency and reliability of a water supply system.

  6. Energy analysis of the personalized ventilation system in hot and humid climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiavon, S.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Sekhar, C.

    2010-01-01

    , inhaled air quality, thermal comfort, and self-estimated productivity. Little is known about its energy performance. In this study, the energy consumption of a personalized ventilation system introduced in an office building located in a hot and humid climate (Singapore) has been investigated by means of......Personalized ventilation (PV) is an individually controlled air distribution system aimed at improving the quality of inhaled air and the thermal comfort of each occupant. Numerous studies have shown that PV in comparison with traditional mechanical ventilation systems may improve occupants’ health...

  7. An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

    2016-04-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  8. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  9. Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellon, Mauricio R; Hodson, David; Hellin, Jon

    2011-08-16

    Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10-2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world.

  10. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Eby

    2013-05-01

    is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

  11. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  12. Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg

    2016-04-01

    Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and

  13. Regional modelling of nitrate leaching from Swiss organic and conventional cropping systems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calitri, Francesca; Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Zaccone, Claudio; Spiess, Ernst; Herrera, Juan; Six, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Organic cropping systems have been promoted as a sustainable alternative to minimize the environmental impacts of conventional practices. Relatively little is known about the potential to reduce NO3-N leaching through the large-scale adoption of organic practices. Moreover, the potential to mitigate NO3-N leaching and thus the N pollution under future climate change through organic farming remain unknown and highly uncertain. Here, we compared regional NO3-N leaching from organic and conventional cropping systems in Switzerland using a terrestrial biogeochemical process-based model DayCent. The objectives of this study are 1) to calibrate and evaluate the model for NO3-N leaching measured under various management practices from three experiments at two sites in Switzerland; 2) to estimate regional NO3-N leaching patterns and their spatial uncertainty in conventional and organic cropping systems (with and without cover crops) for future climate change scenario A1B; 3) to explore the sensitivity of NO3-N leaching to changes in soil and climate variables; and 4) to assess the nitrogen use efficiency for conventional and organic cropping systems with and without cover crops under climate change. The data for model calibration/evaluation were derived from field experiments conducted in Liebefeld (canton Bern) and Eschikon (canton Zürich). These experiments evaluated effects of various cover crops and N fertilizer inputs on NO3-N leaching. The preliminary results suggest that the model was able to explain 50 to 83% of the inter-annual variability in the measured soil drainage (RMSE from 12.32 to 16.89 cm y-1). The annual NO3-N leaching was also simulated satisfactory (RMSE = 3.94 to 6.38 g N m-2 y-1), although the model had difficulty to reproduce the inter-annual variability in the NO3-N leaching losses correctly (R2 = 0.11 to 0.35). Future climate datasets (2010-2099) from the 10 regional climate models (RCM) were used in the simulations. Regional NO3-N leaching

  14. International Symposium on Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems, and Climate Change Studies. Presentations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human activities have had a far-reaching impact on the aquatic environments - both marine and freshwater systems. The protection of these systems against further deterioration and the promotion of sustainable use are vital. In order to deepen understanding about the main processes affecting the present situation, as well as possible developments in the future, further investigation is required. The oceans play a major role in climate change, for example, and ocean acidification by increased CO2 release is one major threat to the world's oceans. Isotope methods can play a critical role in identifying and quantifying key processes within aquatic environments. Addressing the problems of global water resources has become a matter of urgency. Water resources are subject to multiple pressures for various reasons, including increasing populations, climate change, rising food and energy costs, the global economic crisis and pollutant loading. Isotope hydrology provides the unique and critical tools required to address complex water problems and helps managers and policy makers understand the closely intertwined relationship between water resources and the various pressures affecting them, as well as the issue of sustainability. The symposium will be an important forum for the exchange of knowledge on the present state of marine and freshwater environments, use of isotopes in water resources investigations and management, and climate change studies. The meeting will involve leading scientists in the field of climate change and hydrology, as well as representatives from other United Nations bodies and international organizations that focus on climate change and other important environmental issues. TOPICS: The role of isotopes in understanding and modelling climate change, marine ecosystems and the water cycle; Carbon dioxide sequestration and related aspects of the carbon cycle, such as ocean acidification; Isotopes in groundwater flow modelling for large aquifers

  15. Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Daniel Salomón

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardenal, Silvio Javier Pereira; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    2014-01-01

    , these impacts have not yet been evaluated at the peninsular level. We coupled a hydrological model with a power market model to study three impacts of climate change on the current Iberian power system: changes in hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, changes in temporal......Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However...... patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that changes...

  17. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  18. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations. PMID:27179801

  19. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  20. A regional climate simulation study with land cover dynamics in Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hanjie; Ju, Yongmao; Li, Jianyun; Qiu, Guoyu

    2007-09-01

    A social-economic database based on the Governmental Statistical Annals, county-to-county investigation, literature verification, as well as the satellite identification was completed recently by the Remote Sensing and GIS Research Center, Beijing Normal University of China. The GIS Operational System handing this database not only provides details of the social, ecological, and economic information of the Northern China's 13 provinces since earlier 1950s, but also gives out predictions of these information by 2050 with different sceneries concerning the population increase, land use variation, governmental policy adjusting, administrating capability, science and technology development, National GDP increment, as well as world climate change. Aims at further regional climate simulation study, there is a special module nested in the GIS Operational System that interprets the county-level administrative data-units to a 60 × 60 km numerical mesh-grid suitable for climate model. By incorporating the land use dynamics provided by the above database, the new generation of the Regional Integrate Environment Modeling System (RIEMS2.0) was used for climate simulation study. The preliminary simulation studies show that: (1) the regional climate will be affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed; (2) the integrate impact of the LULC variation on climate (such as temperature, humidity and net long-wave radiation, precipitation) is not only limited to the Northern China where LULC varies, but also to the whole numerical domain where the LULC does not vary at all; (3) the ecological construction engineering implemented in Northern China including the Green-Great Wall construction engineering, the replace farming with forestry and grass movement, and the natural forest conservation etc has shown and will work positively on the eco-environment improvement, particularly shown as the increased

  1. Lidar studies on climate sensitivity characteristics of tropical cirrus clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motty, G. S.; Jayeshlal, G. S.; Satyanarayana, Malladi; Mahadevan Pillai, V. P.

    2016-05-01

    The cirrus clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget due to their high frequency of occurrence, non-spherical ice crystal formations, and variability in the scattering/absorption characteristics. Mostly, the tropical cirrus clouds are considered as greenhouse modulators. Thus the parameterization of tropical cirrus clouds in terms of the micro- physical properties and the corresponding radiative effects are highly important for the climate studies. For characterizing the radiative properties of cirrus clouds, which depend on the size, shape and number of the ice crystals, the knowledge of extinction coefficient (σ) and optical depth (τ) are necessary. The σ provides information needed for understanding the influence of the scatterers on the radiative budget whereas the τ gives an indication on the composition and thickness of the cloud. Extensive research on the tropical cirrus clouds has been carried out by using a ground based and satellite based lidar systems. In this work, the characteristics of tropical cirrus cloud derived by using the data from the ground based lidar system over the tropical site Gadanki [13.5°N, 79.2°E], India during 2010 are presented. Some of the results are compared with those obtained by us from satellite based CALIOP lidar observations of the CALIPSO mission. It is observed that there is a strong dependence of the some of the physical properties such as occurrence height, cloud temperature and the geometrical thickness on the microphysical parameters in terms of extinction coefficient and optical depth. The correlation of both the σ and τ with temperature is also observed.

  2. Planned Contributions of The Wcrp Climate and Cryosphere (clic) Project To Mountain Hydrological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, R. G.

    Formal discussions within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) since 1997 have addressed the question of the role of the cryosphere in the climate system. An outcome has been the approval in March 2000 of a Science and Co-ordination Plan for a new Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project by the WCRP Joint Scientific Com- mittee in March 2000. The concept of this plan (WCRP, 2001) and particular topics of concern for high-mountain hydrology are discussed here. The proposed definition of the cryosphere is that portion of the climate system consisting of the world's ice masses and snow deposits. of relevance for mountains are: ice caps and glaciers, sea- sonal snow cover, lake and river ice, and seasonally frozen ground and permafrost. Existing projects both within the framework of the WCRP, as well as of the IGBP are mainly regional and links into the global climate research effort are not sufficiently comprehensive. The WCRP GEWEX project has cryospheric components concerning the high latitude hydrological cycle, but mountain studies are currently only in Ti- bet. Other relevant programs include: the IGBP-BAHC Mountain Research Initiative, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS), and Permafrost and Climate in Europe (PACE), for example. Integration of existing cryospheric projects within a global research structure, together with new efforts addressing current gaps, is re- quired in order to: - enhance links between regional and global climatic components studies, - promote appropriate treatment of cryospheric processes in climate models, and - assemble and make accessible quality controlled, well documented, comprehen- sive and coherent global gridded data sets necessary for driving and validating climate models. The principal scientific questions relating to the cryosphere in mountain re- gions concern: - glacier melt contributions to global sea level change, - the energy and water cycle in regions with land ice, snow cover and frozen ground, - the

  3. Building America Residential System Research Results: Achieving 30% Whole House Energy Savings Level in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Building Industry Research Alliance (BIRA); Building Science Consortium (BSC); Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB); Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC); IBACOS; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

    2006-08-01

    The Building America program conducts the system research required to reduce risks associated with the design and construction of homes that use an average of 30% to 90% less total energy for all residential energy uses than the Building America Research Benchmark, including research on homes that will use zero net energy on annual basis. To measure the program's progress, annual research milestones have been established for five major climate regions in the United States. The system research activities required to reach each milestone take from 3 to 5 years to complete and include research in individual test houses, studies in pre-production prototypes, and research studies with lead builders that provide early examples that the specified energy savings level can be successfully achieved on a production basis. This report summarizes research results for the 30% energy savings level and demonstrates that lead builders can successfully provide 30% homes in Cold Climates on a cost-neutral basis.

  4. Interdisciplinary MSc and Doctoral Education in Climate System Science at the University of Hamburg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilly, Oliver; Stammer, Detlef; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2010-05-01

    starting with the interdisciplinary MSc program Integrated Climate System Sciences and then get in-depth disciplinary expertise during PhD studies. The completion of the total MSc curriculum may not be essential. Advantages and limitations of this concept will be discussed.

  5. New climate-proof cropping systems in dry areas of the Mediterranean region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Sven-Erik

    2014-01-01

    A climate-proof cropping system is a system which is able to mitigate the effects of climate change, which often are unpredictable and extreme. The special issue is related to the subject of improving cropping systems in the Mediterranean region, which is one of the regions in the world facing mo...... of the world, where Mediterranean climate is found, such as Western Australia and Western Chile, and in many dry areas of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East....

  6. Climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower system in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani Larijani, Kaveh

    The high-elevation hydropower system in California, composed of more than 150 hydropower plants and regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), supplies 74 percent of in-state hydropower. The system has modest reservoir capacities and has been designed to take advantage of snowpack. The expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter as a result of climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and earlier snowmelt, might have important effects on hydropower operations. Estimation of climate warming effects on such a large system by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. This dissertation presents a novel approach for modeling large hydropower systems. Conservation of energy and energy flows are used as the basis for modeling high-elevation high-head hydropower systems in California. The unusual energy basis for reservoir modeling allows for development of hydropower operations models to estimate large-scale system behavior without the expense and time needed to develop traditional streamflow and reservoir volume-based models in absence of storage and release capacity, penstock head, and efficiency information. An Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) is developed to facilitate a practical climate change study based on the historical generation data high-elevation hydropower plants in California. Employing recent historical hourly energy prices, energy generation in California is explored for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. Currently, the high-elevation hydropower plants in California have to renew their FERC licenses. A method based on cooperative game theory is developed to explore FERC relicensing process, in which dam owners negotiate over the available instream water with other interest groups downstream. It is discussed how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long

  7. PROGRESS IN THE STUDY OF RETROSPECTIVE NUMERICAL SCHEME AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Wenjie; CHOU Jieming; FENG Guolin

    2004-01-01

    The retrospective numerical scheme (RNS) is a numerical computation scheme designed for multiple past value problems of the initial value in mathematics and considering the selfmemory property of the system in physics. This paper briefly presents the historical background of RNS, elaborates the relation of the scheme with other difference schemes and other meteorological prediction methods, and introduces the application of RNS to the regional climatic self-memory model,simplified climate model, barotropic model, spectral model, and mesoscale model. At last, the paper sums up and points out the application perspective of the scheme and the direction for the future study.

  8. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  9. Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

    2008-01-01

    There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

  10. Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

  11. Elucidation of circulation mechanism on climatic changing vapor caused by water field ecology system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As climatic change caused by increase of carbon dioxide amounts emitted by industrial development is much anxious, it is well-known that water field ecology system relaxes change of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, which is a climatic changing gas and has a closed relationship to the earth warming, is caught from atmosphere in the water field ecology system to be fixed as organic carbon and constitutes a starting point of food chains thereafter. In this study, in order to examine change of carbon dioxide, which is one of climatic changing gas or greenhouse effect gas caused by water field ecology system, 14-C was added to microcosm, which constructs a water field ecology system model, to measure 14-C amounts in each organism. As a result, it was found that carbon transfer in the system could be examined. And, it was also found that it was possible to understand more precise flow of substances and to elucidate quantitatively absorption of carbon dioxide and flow of carbon thereafter under different conditions, by future attempts on upgrading precision such as changing amounts of adding RI, and so forth. (G.K.)

  12. Analysis of Radiant Cooling System Configurations Integrated with Cooling Tower for Different Indian Climatic Zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathur, Jyotirmay [Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, India; Bhandari, Mahabir S [ORNL; Jain, Robin [Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, India; Srivastava, Prateek [Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, India

    2016-01-01

    Radiant cooling system has proven to be a low energy consumption system for building cooling needs. This study describes the use of cooling tower in radiant cooling system to improve the overall system efficiency. A comprehensive simulation feasibility study of the application of cooling tower in radiant cooling system was performed for the fifteen cities in different climatic zones of India. It was found that in summer, the wet bulb temperature (WBT) of the different climatic zones except warm-humid is suitable for the integration of cooling tower with radiant cooling system. In these climates, cooling tower can provide on average 24 C to 27 C water In order to achieve the energy saving potential, three different configurations of radiant cooling system have been compared in terms of energy consumption. The different configurations of the radiant cooling system integrated with cooling tower are: (1) provide chilled water to the floor, wall and ceiling mounted tubular installation. (2) provide chilled water to the wall and ceiling mounted tabular installation. In this arrangement a separate chiller has also been used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor mounted tubular installation. (3) provide chilled water to the wall mounted tabular installation and a separate chiller is used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor and ceiling mounted tabular installation. A dedicated outdoor air system is also coupled for dehumidification and ventilation in all three configurations. A conventional all-air system was simulated as a baseline to compare these configurations for assessing the energy saving potential.

  13. Studies of urban climates and air pollution in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In addition to an assessment of the factors that are responsible for urban climate change, this paper describes climatological studies and peculiarities of some Swiss cities. Although these cities are small, urban air pollution presents a real problem for urban planning. This is a result of the narow street canyons, the high traffic concentration and the complex topography, which favors air stagnation during anticyclonic weather conditions

  14. Revisiting climate changes. Isotope studies open scientific windows to the past

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earlier this year, scientists warned that 'an increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system'. The conclusion came from the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Today, it is widely accepted that recent warning is largely a product of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere derived from post-industrial combustion of fossil fuels and biomass energy sources. However, great uncertainty remains regarding the causal relationships between specific parameters and climate phenomena, and regarding the impacts of climate change on the earth's water cycle. The science of climate change is dynamic. The IAEA contributes to studies via coordination of climate research, participation and support for international scientific programmes, and dissemination of isotope technology and applications. The third quadrennial scientific gathering on the use of isotopes for studying environmental change was held at the IAEA in Vienna 23-27 April 2001. The Conference - attended by 150 experts from 38 countries and seven international organizations - served as an important forum for presentation of results, discussion of ideas and concepts, establishment of international collaboration, and identification of avenues for future research. Selected highlights of issues discussed include: Isotopes are being used as validation tools for predicting impacts of deforestation of the Amazon Basin and for examining the past isotope signals of El Nino events; Isotope signatures in ice cores from low-latitude environments are showing similar temperature signals to polar ice cores,suggesting widespread (global) changes in the past; Isotopes are being used in the World Ocean Circulation Experiment to trace the movement, mixing and residence time of oceanic circulation patterns. Changes in ocean circulation are one of the most important factors controlling the variability of the

  15. The Soft Underbelly of System Change: The Role of Leadership and Organizational Climate in Turnover during Statewide Behavioral Health Reform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarons, Gregory A; Sommerfeld, David H; Willging, Cathleen E

    2011-01-01

    This study examined leadership, organizational climate, staff turnover intentions, and voluntary turnover during a large-scale statewide behavioral health system reform. The initial data collection occurred nine months after initiation of the reform with a follow-up round of data collected 18 months later. A self-administered structured assessment was completed by 190 participants (administrators, support staff, providers) employed by 14 agencies. Key variables included leadership, organizational climate, turnover intentions, turnover, and reform-related financial stress ("low" versus "high") experienced by the agencies. Analyses revealed that positive leadership was related to a stronger empowering climate in both high and low stress agencies. However, the association between more positive leadership and lower demoralizing climate was evident only in high stress agencies. For both types of agencies empowering climate was negatively associated with turnover intentions, and demoralizing climate was associated with stronger turnover intentions. Turnover intentions were positively associated with voluntary turnover. Results suggest that strong leadership is particularly important in times of system and organizational change and may reduce poor climate associated with turnover intentions and turnover. Leadership and organizational context should be addressed to retain staff during these periods of systemic change.

  16. On the Application of Hilbert Spectral Analysis for Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Norden E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Hilbert spectral analysis (Huang et al, 1998, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, A 454, pp 903-995) consisted of two steps: First, the data has to be reduced into a finite number of Intrinsic Mode Function by the Empirical Mode Decomposition method, then the resulting Intrinsic Mode Functions are converted to time-frequency-energy distribution through Hilbert transform. In this approach, the Empirical Mode Functions served as the basis functions with which the data is expanded. This basis function is adaptive, and the decomposition is nonlinear. Furthermore, as the Hilbert transform is a singular transform, it retains a high degree of local information. The instantaneous frequency is determined by differentiation of the phase function; therefore, there is no restriction of the 'uncertainty principle' for all the time-frequency analysis resulting from a priori basis approach. With the adaptive basis and the instantaneous frequency, the Hilbert Spectral analysis can represent data from nonlinear and nonstationary processes without resorting to the harmonics. Another advantage of using instantaneous frequency is the ability to find out frequency from limited length of data, which is a critical problem in climate studies. As the processes driving the climate changes could be both nonlinear and nonstationary, the Hilbert Spectral Analysis could be of great use in examining the underlying mechanisms. A preliminary study based on the length of day data will be presented as example for the application of the Hilbert Spectral Analysis for climate study.

  17. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-04-09

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m{sup 2} between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m{sup 2} depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  18. Climate Literacy: Climate.gov Follow-Up Evaluation—A Study of the Four NOAA Audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F., III; Sullivan, S. B.; Gold, A. U.; Lynds, S. E.; Kirk, K.

    2014-12-01

    NOAA Climate.gov provides science and information for a climate-smart nation. Americans' health, security, and economic well-being are closely linked to climate and weather. NOAA Climate.gov's goals are to promote public understanding of climate science and climate-related events, to make our data products and services easy to access and use, to support educators in improving the nations climate literacy, and to serve people making climate-related decisions with tools and resources that help them answer specific questions.The Climate.Gov Follow-Up Study of the four NOAA Audiences (climate interested public, educators, scientists, policy-makers) built upon the previous literature review and evaluation study conducted by Mooney and Phillips in 2010 and 2012, http://tinyurl.com/ma8vo83. The CIRES Education and Outreach team at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at University of Colorado at Boulder and the NOAA Climate.gov team will present results of the new study that used the Quality of Relationship index (awareness, trust, satisfaction, usability, and control mutuality). This index was developed in the previous study and places a new emphasis on the experience of individual users from the four audiences in their regular work or home setting. This new evaluation project used mixed methods, including an online survey, usability studies, phone interviews, and web statistics, providing multiple lines of evidence from which to draw conclusion and recommendations.In the session, we will explore how the NOAA Climate.gov teams used the literature review and new CIRES research to address underlying challenges to achieving the portal's goals. The research in these studies finds that people seek information in ways that are complex and that they do so by consulting a vast array of technologies. Improved and different modes of access to information have, throughout history, been led by technological innovation, but human behavior tends to be

  19. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  20. Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions

  1. Correlation Assessment of Climate and Geographic Distribution of Tuberculosis Using Geographical Information System (GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza BEIRANVAND

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Tuberculosis (TB spread pattern is influenced by geographic and social factors. Nowadays Geographic Information System (GIS is one of the most important epidemiological instrumentation identifying high-risk population groups and geographic areas of TB. The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between climate and geographic distribution of TB in Khuzestan Province using GIS during 2005-2012.Methods: Through an ecological study, all 6363 patients with definite diagnosis of TB from 2005 until the end of September 2012 in Khuzestan Province, southern Iran were diagnosed. Data were recorded using TB- Register software. Tuberculosis incidence based on the climate and the average of annual rain was evaluated using GIS. Data were analyzed through SPSS software. Independent t-test, ANOVA, Linear regression, Pearson and Eta correlation coefficient with a significance level of less than 5% were used for the statistical analysis.Results: The TB incidence was different in various geographic conditions. The highest mean of TB cumulative incidence rate was observed in extra dry areas (P= 0.017. There was a significant inverse correlation between annual rain rate and TB incidence rate (R= -0.45, P= 0.001. The lowest TB incidence rate (0-100 cases per 100,000 was in areas with the average of annual rain more than 1000 mm (P= 0.003.Conclusion: The risk of TB has a strong relationship with climate and the average of annual rain, so that the risk of TB in areas with low annual rainfall and extra dry climate is more than other regions. Services and special cares to high-risk regions of TB are recommended.Keywords: Annual rain, Climatic processes, Geographic information systems, Tuberculosis

  2. Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyarko, B. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.

  3. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.00C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  4. A decision support system for management planning of Eucalyptus plantations facing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia-Gonzalo, J.; Borges, J.G.; Palma, J. H. N.; Zubizarreta-Gerendiain, A.

    2014-01-01

    & Context Climate change studies in Portugal point to warming winters and increase in the dry season length, impacting growth of plants. New tools are needed to increase the effectiveness of forest management planning under climate change. & Aims To develop research tools that may help forest managers cope with climate change challenges to long-term planning. These tools should help assess the impact of climate change on the timing and location of forest management options as well as on fores...

  5. Feedbacks between climate, CO2 and N2O quantified by a fully coupled Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracher, D.; Reick, C. H.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is evoked by an anthropogenic increase of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, induced by direct emissions from industrial processes or indirectly due to human impacts on ecosystems. Those indirect GHG emissions are strongly influenced by climatic conditions implying several feedback loops in the climate - carbon (C) - nitrogen (N) system. In our study we aim at quantifying the climate - nitrous oxide (N2O) feedback strength in comparison to other feedback mechanisms by applying an Earth system model with explicit representation of interactive N2O in the atmosphere-land-ocean system. Beside the feedbacks emerging due to the temperature sensitivity of biogenic CO2 and N2O emissions, another feedback addressed arises from additional inter-linkages between climate and C and N cycles. Future increased atmospheric CO2 leads to enhanced primary productivity ('CO2 fertilization') causing changes in N availability in the different land and ocean ecosystems. As N2O emissions are driven by availability of N, increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations will impact the climate system also via modifications in N2O emissions. Those changes in N2O emissions will feed back to the climate and will hence also modify the natural biogenic release of CO2 into the atmosphere. This and other associated feedbacks are quantified by applying MPI-ESM, the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. MPI-ESM is an atmosphere and ocean global circulation model with model components for land and ocean biogeochemistry. For both CO2 and N2O, land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere exchange as well as atmospheric transport are simulated explicitly. Hence, different feedback components in the climate-C-N system can be quantified by cutting artificially single feedback pathways in the model.

  6. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  7. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  8. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of climatic shifts on the production and processing of native and traditional crops in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alder eKeleman Saxena

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data was collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed-methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes a the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia; and b the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp., oca (Oxalis tuberosa, tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis, papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus, and charkay (llama or sheep jerky. Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Further, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. While these findings are drawn from a single case-study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, indigenous food systems. Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture, and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  9. Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khomenko, Inna

    2016-04-01

    Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities. Transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes owing to development of emission scenarios. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport along highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean and maximum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 8 cities (Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Odesa, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Voznesensk) situated down the highways. The highways of 'Odesa-Voznesensk-Dnipropetrovsk-Kharkiv' and 'Dnipropetrovsk-Kirovohrad-Vinnytsia-Khmelnytskyi-Ternopil' are considered. The first highway goes across the Black Sea Lowland, the Dnieper Upland and Dnieper Lowland, the other passes through the Dnieper and Volhynia-Podillia Uplands. The both highways are situated in steppe and forest-steppe native zones. For both scenarios, significant climate warming is registered; it is revealed in significant increase of average monthly and yearly temperature by 2-3°C in all cities in questions, and also, in considerable increment of frequency of days with maximum temperature higher than +30 and 35°C, except Kharkiv, where decrease number of days with such temperatures is observed. On the contrary, number of days with daily mean temperature being equal to or below 0°C decreases in the south of steppe, is constant in the north of steppe and increases in the forest-steppe native zone. Extreme negative temperatures don't occur in the steppe zone, but takes place in the forest-steppe zone. Results obtained shows that road surface must hold in extreme maximum temperature, and in the forest-steppe zone hazards of extreme negative temperatures

  10. Knowledge systems in upland farming practices in the Philippines and implications for climate change adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Espaldon, Maria Victoria O.

    2008-01-01

    The paper focuses on the importance of multiple knowledge systems on enhancing the adaptive capacity of farming communities in the Philippines. It discusses the epistemologies of knowledge that are pertinent to strengthen the resilience of small farmers and farming households, who are one of the most vulnerable groups in the event of climatic variabilities, climatic extremes and climate change. It also brings to the discussion the need for effective communication systems to disseminate the kn...

  11. Groundwater and climate change in Africa : review of recharge studies

    OpenAIRE

    Bonsor, H. C.; A M. Macdonald

    2010-01-01

    The review of recharge studies was conducted as part of a one year DFID-funded research programme, aimed at improving understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and local livelihoods – see http://www.bgs.ac.uk/GWResilience/. The review is one of a series of components within the project. The overall outputs of the project are: Two hydrogeological case studies in West and East Africa – which assess the storage and availability of groundwater in different aquifers a...

  12. Implications of recent multimodel attribution studies for climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Nicholas

    2016-03-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is inferred from estimates of instrumental-period warming attributable solely to greenhouse gases (AW), as derived in two recent multi-model detection and attribution (D&A) studies that apply optimal fingerprint methods with high spatial resolution to 3D global climate model simulations. This approach minimises the key uncertainty regarding aerosol forcing without relying on low-dimensional models. The "observed" AW distributions from the D&A studies together with an observationally-based estimate of effective planetary heat capacity (EHC) are applied as observational constraints in (AW, EHC) space. By varying two key parameters—ECS and effective ocean diffusivity—in an energy balance model forced solely by greenhouse gases, an invertible map from the bivariate model parameter space to (AW, EHC) space is generated. Inversion of the constrained (AW, EHC) space through a transformation of variables allows unique recovery of the observationally-constrained joint distribution for the two model parameters, from which the marginal distribution of ECS can readily be derived. The method is extended to provide estimated distributions for transient climate response (TCR). The AW distributions from the two D&A studies produce almost identical results. Combining the two sets of results provides best estimates (5-95 % ranges) of 1.66 (0.7-3.2) K for ECS and 1.37 (0.65-2.2) K for TCR, in line with those from several recent studies based on observed warming from all causes but with tighter uncertainty ranges than for some of those studies. Almost identical results are obtained from application of an alternative profile likelihood statistical methodology.

  13. The 21st century Museum Climatic Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W.-S.

    2015-08-01

    Technology has provided us work convenience and shaped our quality of life; it has enabled an unprecedented level of access to knowledge by flipping screen of a hand-held electronic device without going elsewhere but stay connected wireless communication. This kind of technology has been broadly acquired at museums in Hong Kong for preserving their valuable collections. Similar gadget was applied on the monitoring system to record climatic conditions of museum's stores and galleries. Sensors have been equipped with chips for the wireless transmission of RH/Temp, without installation of any conduit or LAN lines. Useful and important data will then be grouped into a packet format for efficient delivery. As long as the static IP address of the target workstation has been set, data can be accurately retrieved from one place to another via commercially available browsers, such as: Firefox or Internet Explorer, even on hand-held electronic devices. This paper will discuss the detail of this system, its pros and cons in comparison with the old model. After all, the new technology is highly significant in supporting the current needs and the future developments of the museum service.

  14. Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasheva, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

  15. NEW PHYTOTRON FOR STUDYING THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT PATHOGENS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lodovica Gullino

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its recent fourth assessment report predicts that, because of higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, until 2100 the global mean temperature would rise between 0.6 and 4°C, in combination with changes in precipitation and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. Despite this trend, the extent and mechanisms through which elevated CO2 affects plant diseases remain uncertain. Increases in CO2 and temperatures are also expected to induce complex effects on plant pathogens. Although re- 10 search on the effects of climate change continues to be limited, new tools are permitting to study the effects of climate variables on infection rates in the case of some pathosystems. The shortage of critical epidemiological data on individual plant diseases needs to be addressed using experimental approaches. A useful tool for such types of studies is represented by phytotrons. Hereby, a new phytotron typology, built with the specific aim of studying the effect of climate change on plant disease, is described. Beginning from a general plant overview, key mechanical and electrical systems are described (i.e. air temperature and relative humidity control, lighting and CO2 control system etc. as environmental parameters and operation cycle are summarized. In particular both parameters which could be set and monitored and those measured and stored are reported. After a suitable testing period, several operation cycles were performed in order to assess the control system’s stability and to optimize the management of all systems involved and the first experimental trials were carried out. The effect of three different simulated climatic conditions: 450 ppm of CO2 with standard temperature (ranging from 18 to 24°C or 18 to 26°C, elevated CO2 (800 ppm with standard temperature and elevated CO2 (800 ppm with elevated temperature (4°C higher than standard on the development of grape

  16. Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial

  17. A study on the influence of organizational climate on motivation of employees

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel Gök

    2009-01-01

    The relation between organizational climate and organizational efficiency is frequently pointed out in recent management and labour psychology studies. Organizational climate has positive or negative impacts on performance, job satisfaction, and motivation of employees. In this study, which consists of two parts, the relation between organizational climate and work motivation is examined. The first part of the study contains theoretical framework with regard to the organizational climate an...

  18. 全球气候研究计划(WCRP)中的气候与冰冻圈项目(CliC): 冰冻圈与气候的优先研究领域%The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC): Priority Studies of the Cryosphere and Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The cryosphere is an integral part of the global climate system, however, many aspects of the cryosphere have not been fully covered within WCRP. Issues relating to potential changes in the climate cryosphere system become more and more important in order to describes research and coordination initiatives required to integrate fully studies of impact and response of the cryosphere to climate change. The article also indicates the recent progress of CliC, and its future plan.

  19. Are we ready to build health systems that consider the climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayhew, Susannah; Van Belle, Sara; Hammer, Michael

    2014-04-01

    At last, climate change does appear to have entered mainstream consciousness. In the scientific community, the climate change debate has shifted from focusing on establishing the truth of the claim that climate change is a reality to warming public opinion to the cause and acknowledging that climate change will have far-reaching effects on how we build, organize and manage climate-responsive social systems including health care systems. There is particular urgency to the debate for health services and systems in low income countries where some of the worst effects of climate change will be felt and where health systems are already over-stretched due to long-term lack of investment, a double burden of disease (preventive and non-communicable), a crisis in human resources and governance deficiencies. Despite the urgency, the health care systems development community appears insular in its interests and actions, and a clear leader that could coordinate the activities of different researchers, research bodies, policy makers and international organizations across relevant sectors including disaster management, climate and health care systems, has yet to emerge. This essay considers the political landscape, possible leaders and why it is necessary for health systems' professionals to move beyond the health sector in order to secure support for health and health care systems development in a post-Millennium Development Goals development framework that is defined by climate change. PMID:24366158

  20. Analysis agriculture's impact in a system of lakes on a karst environment with tropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olea Olea, Selene; Escolero Fuentes, Oscar

    2015-04-01

    This paper has as main object to analyze the impact of agriculture in the water quality of the "Lagos de Montebello" area; which is located in the Southeast of Mexico. This area is prominent by its tropical climate and a karstic environment. The issue arises in a lake system affected by pollution in the later years, which has turned its former clear water into a highly sedimented muddy water in the topographically lower terrains while no polluted on the higher ones; therefore it is intended to determine if the rise in agricultural activity in the lower terrains has induced this phenomenon. The impact of agriculture has been historically studied in temperate climates with karstic environments; nevertheless it has not been very well studied in tropical climates; which are the reason of this proposal to perform a study to analyze the impact of the intensive agriculture running in the area. To develop this project we studied the area regarding to the types of crops that has being established in the zone, being mostly tomato, corn, and bean; and the fertilizers and pesticides applied to them. A groundwater monitoring plan was designed with a variety of phases such as: piezometers building, measurement of groundwater levels, measurement of field parameters, with a two months intervals (Ph, temperature, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids), and water samplings for laboratory analysis (major ions, nutrients, total organic carbon, pesticides) at twice a year, once during rainy season and then on drought. The rates of pollution agents infiltration depends on the type of soil retention and volume of water. The materials found in the soil by the piezometers are clay, silt, sand and variations between them. We determined that the geochemical qualities of the groundwater vary from calcic bicarbonate to calcic sulfated. The results reached with this monitoring provides a preliminary diagnosis on the possible causes and other implications that intensive agriculture in a

  1. Adapting complex multi-level landscape systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koomen, E.; Steingröver, E.G.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is becoming a prominent issue in both landscape research and landuse planning. Current research focuses mainly on the description of potential impacts for different societal sectors and in general fails to provide useful information to help define climate adaptation stra

  2. Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska's changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kofinas, G.P. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; Chapin, F.S. III; Schmidt, J.I.; Kielland, K. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; BurnSilver, S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Fresco, N.L.; Springsteen, A.; Rupp, T.S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning; Martin, S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Social and Economic Research

    2010-07-15

    Indigenous peoples have occupied interior Alaska for 6000 to 9000 years. The arrival of different cultural groups, or Athabascan Peoples, preceded or coincided with the arrival of black spruce dominated fire-prone vegetation that developed in interior Alaska about 6000 years ago. The Athabascan subsistence hunting system of interior Alaska is a tightly integrated social-ecological system in which people depend on nature for a wide range of ecosystem services such as subsistence resources, protection from fire risk, and cultural ties to their traditional lands. This paper described the effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of the region and depicted the changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. The study focused primarily on moose because of the high dependence on moose by village households. The vulnerability of Athabascan subsistence systems to climatic change has increased in some respects, but has also improved aspects of village resilience. Communities facing future climate and socioeconomic changes, have limited but potentially effective mitigation and adaptation opportunities, but the extent to which they can be realized depends on the responsiveness of institutions to meet local needs through effective management strategies. 1 tab., 6 figs.

  3. Land Use and Climate Impacts on Fluvial Systems (LUCIFS): A PAGES - Focus 4 (PHAROS) research activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dearing, John; Hoffmann, Thomas

    2010-05-01

    LUCIFS is a global research program which is concerned with understanding past interactions between climate, human activity and fluvial systems. Its focus is on evaluating the geomorphic impact of humans on landscapes, with a strong emphasis on geomorphological and sedimentological perspectives on mid- to long-term man-landscape interactions. Of particular relevance are aspects of sediment redistribution systems such as non-linear behaviour, the role of system configuration, scale effects, and emergent properties Over the last decade the LUCIFS program has been investigating both contemporary and long-term river response to global change with the principal aims of i)quantifying land use and climate change impacts of river-borne fluxes of water, sediment, C, N and P; ii) identification of key controls on these fluxes at the catchment scale; and iii) identification of the feedback on both human society and biogeochemical cycles of long-term changes in the fluxes of these materials The major scientific tasks of the LUCIFS-program are: • synthesising results of regional case studies • identify regional gaps and encouraging new case studies • addressing research gaps and formulating new research questions • organising workshops and conferences In this paper we present the LUCIFS program within the new PAGES structure. LUCIFS is located in the Focus 4 (PHAROS) dealing with how a knowledge of human-climate-ecosystem interactions in the past can help inform understanding and management today. In conjunction with the other working groups HITE (Human Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems), LIMPACS (Human Impacts on Lake Ecosystems) and IHOPE (Integrated History of People on Earth) PHAROS aims to compare regional-scale reconstructions of environmental and climatic processes using natural archives, documentary and instrumental data, with evidence of past human activity obtained from historical, paleoecological and archaeological records.

  4. Climate Change Management Approaches of Cities: A Comparative Study Between Globally Leading and Turkish Metropolitan Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solmaz Filiz Karabag

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have focused on climate change policies and action at the national level, but few have studied policies and action at the city level, especially cities in emerging economies. To address this gap, the present study analyzes the management strategies globally leading cities have developed to address climate change and related issues and compares them with the city strategies of one rapidly urbanizing emerging economy, Turkey. In the analysis, the strategic plans of five leading global cities are compared with those of sixteen Turkish cities. While the leading global cities have specific managerial approaches to mitigate climate change, none of the Turkish cities exhibits any comprehensive approach. Furthermore, while leading global cities modify urban services to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, few Turkish cities adjust any services to address this challenge. Some Turkish cities propose an increased use of renewable energy sources and modification in their transportation system, but the focus in these plans is the current daily needs of their inhabitants. The findings of this study suggest several climate change strategies both for Turkish cities and cities in other developing countries.

  5. Rapid climatic signal propagation from source to sink in a southern California sediment-routing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covault, J.A.; Romans, B.W.; Fildani, A.; McGann, M.; Graham, S.A.

    2010-01-01

    Terrestrial source areas are linked to deep-sea basins by sediment-routing systems, which only recently have been studied with a holistic approach focused on terrestrial and submarine components and their interactions. Here we compare an extensive piston-core and radiocarbon-age data set from offshore southern California to contemporaneous Holocene climate proxies in order to test the hypothesis that climatic signals are rapidly propagated from source to sink in a spatially restricted sediment-routing system that includes the Santa Ana River drainage basin and the Newport deep-sea depositional system. Sediment cores demonstrate that variability in rates of Holocene deep-sea turbidite deposition is related to complex ocean-atmosphere interactions, including enhanced magnitude and frequency of the North American monsoon and El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation cycles, which increased precipitation and fluvial discharge in southern California. This relationship is evident because, unlike many sediment-routing systems, the Newport submarine canyon-and-channel system was consistently linked tothe Santa Ana River,which maintained sediment delivery even during Holocene marine transgression and highstand. Results of this study demonstrate the efficiency of sediment transport and delivery through a spatially restricted, consistently linked routing system and the potential utility of deep-sea turbidite depositional trends as paleoclimate proxies in such settings. ?? 2010 by The University of Chicago.

  6. Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Guoyu; DING Yihui; ZHAO Zongci; ZHENG Jingyun; WU Tongwen; TANG Guoli; XU Ying

    2012-01-01

    An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China,average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃ (10 yr)-1 to 0.12℃ (10 yr)-1.This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring.In the past 50 years in China,at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization.Overall,no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country,while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends.The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly,but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly.Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China,but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD).Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods,with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years.The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide.The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years,which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover.However,natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and

  7. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  8. Impacts of Irrigation on Daily Extremes in the Coupled Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Krakauer, Nir; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenka, Larissa; Kelly, Maxwell; Wada, Yoshihide

    2014-01-01

    Widespread irrigation alters regional climate through changes to the energy and water budgets of the land surface. Within general circulation models, simulation studies have revealed significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Here we investigate the feedbacks of irrigation with a focus on daily extremes at the global scale. We simulate global climate for the year 2000 with and without irrigation to understand irrigation-induced changes. Our simulations reveal shifts in key climate-extreme metrics. These findings indicate that land cover and land use change may be an important contributor to climate extremes both locally and in remote regions including the low-latitudes.

  9. Study on the Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Wheat to Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Fang; YANG Xiu; LIN Er-da; JU Hui; XIONG Wei

    2005-01-01

    Based on B2 climate change scenario produced by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), which was developed by the UK Hadley Center, and the wheat yield data outputted by CERES-wheat model, the sensitivity and vulnerability of wheat production to the future climate change in China were studied through analyzing the yield variation using the GIS (geographical information system) techniques. Results showed that, by the 2070s, there will be three negative sensitive areas of rain-fed wheat, i.e., northeastern China, the region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and part of the Loess Plateau. Irrigated wheat is generally sensitive to the future climate change for most areas of China, with a lower sensitive degree and a distribution of sensitive areas similar to the rain-fed wheat. For the irrigated wheat, northeast and northwest of China are strongly negative sensitive, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the coastal areas of southern China and the southwest of China, are moderately negative sensitive to the climate change. With the appropriate adaptation to the climate change, the rain-fed wheat in most regions of China will not be vulnerable and even has a yield increase, while the irrigated wheat will still have a larger vulnerable area (occupying about 2/3 of its total area in China), with the highly vulnerable regions distributed in northeastern China and northwestern China, and the medium and light vulnerable areas distributed along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Yunnan and Guizhou provinces.

  10. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael;

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider...... to a range in hydrological effects of climate change, mainly originating from simulated precipitation amounts......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present...

  11. Past, present, and future climate at select INDEPTH member Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Africa and Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Hondula

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate and weather affect human health directly and indirectly. There is a renewed interest in various aspects of environmental health as our understanding of ongoing climate change improves. In particular, today, the health effects in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs are not well understood. Many computer models predict some of the biggest changes in places where people are equipped with minimal resources to combat the effects of a changing environment, particularly with regard to human health. Objective: This article documents the observed and projected climate profiles of select sites within the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH network of Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Africa and Asia to support the integration of climate research with health practice and policy. Design: The climatology of four meteorological stations representative of a suite of INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs was assessed using daily data of 10 years. Historical and future trends were analyzed using reanalysis products and global climate model projections. Results: The climate characteristics of the HDSS sites investigated suggest vulnerability to different environmental stressors, and the changes expected over the next century are far greater in magnitude than those observed at many of the INDEPTH member sites. Conclusions: The magnitude of potential future climate changes in the LMICs highlights the need for improvements in collaborative climate–health research in these countries. Climate data resources are available to support such research efforts. The INDEPTH studies presented in this supplement are the first attempt to assess and document associations of climatic factors with mortality at the HDSSs.

  12. Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect

  13. Nonlinear problems of complex natural systems: Sun and climate dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bershadskii, A

    2012-01-01

    Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression detrended data. Role of the oceanic Rossby waves in the year-scale global temperature fluctuations and the nonlinear resonance contribution to the El Nino phenomenon have been discussed in detail. The large fluctuations of the reconstructed temperature on the millennial time-scales (Antarctic ice cores data for the past 400,000 years) are also shown to be dominated by the one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to Earth precession effect on the energy that the intertropical regions receive from the Sun. Effects of Galactic turbulence on the temperature fluctuations are discussed in this content. It is also shown that the one-third subharmonic resonance can be considered as a background for the 11-years solar cycle, and again the global (solar) rotation and chaoti...

  14. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  15. Final report: The effect of climate change on the Norwegian Energy System towards 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, P.; Rosenberg, E.; Fidje, A.; Meir, M.; Haugen, J.E.; Jarlseth, T.

    2010-08-15

    The climate impact on the renewable resources, end use demand, and on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050 is identified. Climate change will reduce the heat demand, increase the cooling demand, result in no impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro power potential. The total impact is reduced energy system costs, and lower Norwegian electricity prices. The net electricity export will increase, and national investments in new renewable power production like offshore wind- , tidal- and wave power will decrease due to climate change. Additionally, the electricity consumption in the residential and in the commercial sector will decrease, and climate change will lead to an earlier profitable implementation of electric based vehicles in Norway. Despite great uncertainties in the future climate, various future emission scenarios are compatible regarding the Norwegian climate impact, although the magnitude of the impact varies. (Author)

  16. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  17. Estonia in the system of global climate change. Publication 4/1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estonia is among the countries who signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at the UN Conference in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The FCCC calls on its parties to inventory national sources, to reduction in greenhouse gases and to development of projects responding to climate change. In 1994, an Estonian Country Study Project was initiated within the U.S. Country Studies Program. The Estonian Country Study Project is comprehensive, covering all sectors and directions of activity in Estonia that might impact climate change or be influenced by Global Climate Change. This book contains a collection of papers, covering the aims of the Estonian Country Study Project

  18. Use of a crop climate modeling system to evaluate climate change adaptation practices: maize yield in East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, N. J.; Alagarswamy, G.; Andresen, J.; Olson, J.; Thornton, P.

    2013-12-01

    Sub Saharan African agriculture is dominated by small-scale farmers and is heavily depend on growing season precipitation. Recent studies indicate that anthropogenic- induced warming including the Indian Ocean sea surface significantly influences precipitation in East Africa. East Africa is a useful region to assess impacts of future climate because of its large rainfall gradient, large percentage of its area being sub-humid or semi-arid, complex climatology and topography, varied soils, and because the population is particularly vulnerable to shifts in climate. Agronomic adaptation practices most commonly being considered include include a shift to short season, drought resistant maize varieties, better management practices especially fertilizer use, and irrigation. The effectiveness of these practices with climate change had not previously been tested. We used the WorldClim data set to represent current climate and compared the current and future climate scenarios of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs) including a wetter (CCSM) and drier (HadCM3) GCM downscaled to 6 km resolution. The climate data was then used in the process-based CERES maize crop model to simulate the current period (representing 1960- 1990) and change in future maize production (from 2000 to 2050s). The effectiveness of agronomic practices, including short duration maize variety, fertilizer use and irrigation, to reduce projected future yield losses due to climate change were simulated. The GCMs project an increase in maximum temperature during growing season ranging from 1.5 to 3°C. Changes in precipitation were dependent on the GCM, with high variability across different topographies land cover types and elevations. Projected warmer temperatures in the future scenarios accelerated plant development and led to a reduction in growing season length and yields even where moisture was sufficient Maize yield changes in 2050 relative to the historical period were highly varied, in excess of +/- 500 kg

  19. Evaluating the Representation and Impact of Convective Processes in the NCAR’s Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiaoqing Wu

    2008-07-31

    Convection and clouds affect atmospheric temperature, moisture and wind fields through the heat of condensation and evaporation and through redistributions of heat, moisture and momentum. Individual clouds have a spatial scale of less than 10 km, much smaller than the grid size of several hundred kilometers used in climate models. Therefore the effects of clouds must be approximated in terms of variables that the model can resolve. Deriving such formulations for convection and clouds has been a major challenge for the climate modeling community due to the lack of observations of cloud and microphysical properties. The objective of our DOE CCPP project is to evaluate and improve the representation of convection schemes developed by PIs in the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and study its impact on global climate simulations.

  20. System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Analytic Services Application Programming Interface Distribution Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnase, John L. (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data analytic services application programming interface distribution package. The example system can provide various components. The system provides a climate data analytic services application programming interface library that enables software applications running on a client device to invoke the capabilities of a climate data analytic service. The system provides a command-line interface that provides a means of interacting with a climate data analytic service by issuing commands directly to the system's server interface. The system provides sample programs that call on the capabilities of the application programming interface library and can be used as templates for the construction of new client applications. The system can also provide test utilities, build utilities, service integration utilities, and documentation.

  1. STUDYING OF SAFETY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY AT STEEL INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Hassan DARVISH; Mehdi ROOSTAEI; Azizi, Saeed

    2011-01-01

    Evolution of safety climate used as a practical means has determined and assessed potential problems relevant to safety issues in an organization and can be used in individuals’ performance and work efficiency and decreasing rate of incidents ;as well as; guidance to provide safety organization policy and comparison of safety performance in different organizations. The study wants to determine and prepare safety climate profile and application of its results in improving safety situation. In ...

  2. Climate change impact on freshwater resources in a deltaic environment: A groundwater modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matiatos, Ioannis; Alexopoulos, John D.; Panagopoulos, Andreas; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Kotsopoulos, Spyros; Ghionis, George; Poulos, Serafim

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle, altering seawater level and groundwater recharge to coastal aquifers with various other associated impacts on natural ecosystems and human activities. As the sustainable use of groundwater resources is a great challenge for many countries in the world, groundwater modeling has become a very useful and well established tool for studying groundwater management problems. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the groundwater of the deltaic plain of River Pinios (Central Greece). Geophysical data processing indicates that the phreatic aquifer extends mainly in the central and northern parts of the region. A one-layer transient groundwater flow and contaminant mass transport model of the aquifer system is calibrated and validated. Impacts of climate change were evaluated by incorporating the estimated recharge input and sea level change of different future scenarios within the simulation models. The most noticeable and consistent result of the climate change impact simulations is a prominent sea water intrusion in the coastal aquifer mainly as a result of sea level change which underlines the need for a more effective planning of environmental measures.

  3. Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates - a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Port, Ulrike; Claussen, Martin; Brovkin, Victor

    2016-07-01

    We evaluate the radiative forcing of forests and the feedbacks triggered by forests in a warm, basically ice-free climate and in a cool climate with permanent high-latitude ice cover using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. As a paradigm for a warm climate, we choose the early Eocene, some 54 to 52 million years ago, and for the cool climate, the pre-industrial climate, respectively. To isolate first-order effects, we compare idealised simulations in which all continents are covered either by dense forests or by deserts with either bright or dark soil. In comparison with desert continents covered by bright soil, forested continents warm the planet for the early Eocene climate and for pre-industrial conditions. The warming can be attributed to different feedback processes, though. The lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback is stronger for the early Eocene climate than for the pre-industrial climate, but strong and negative cloud-related feedbacks nearly outweigh the positive lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback for the early Eocene climate. Subsequently, global mean warming by forests is weaker for the early Eocene climate than for pre-industrial conditions. Sea-ice related feedbacks are weak for the almost ice-free climate of the early Eocene, thereby leading to a weaker high-latitude warming by forests than for pre-industrial conditions. When the land is covered with dark soils, and hence, albedo differences between forests and soil are small, forests cool the early Eocene climate more than the pre-industrial climate because the lapse-rate and water-vapour feedbacks are stronger for the early Eocene climate. Cloud-related feedbacks are equally strong in both climates. We conclude that radiative forcing by forests varies little with the climate state, while most subsequent feedbacks depend on the climate state.

  4. Populus Responses to Edaphic and Climatic Cues: Emerging Evidence from Systems Biology Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL; Weston, David [ORNL; Davis, John M [University of Florida

    2009-01-01

    The emergence of Populus as a model system for tree biology continues to be driven by a community of scientists dedicated to developing the resources needed to undertake genetic and functional genomic studies in this genus. As a result, understanding the molecular processes that underpin the growth and development of cottonwood, aspen, and hybrid poplar has steadily increased over the last several decades. Recently, our ability to examine the basic mechanisms whereby trees respond to a changing climate and resource limitations has benefited greatly from the sequencing of the P. trichocarpa genome. This landmark event has laid a solid foundation upon which biologists can now quantify, in breathtaking and unprecedented detail, the diversity of genes, proteins, and metabolites that govern the growth and development of some of the longest living and tallest growing organisms on Earth. Although the challenges likely to be encountered by scientists who work with trees are many, recent literature provides a few examples where a systems approach, one that focuses on integrating transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic analyses, is beginning to provide insights into the molecular-scale response of poplars to their climatic and edaphic environment. In this review, our objectives are to look at evidence from studies that examine the molecular response of poplar to edaphic and climatic cues and highlight instances where two or more omic-scale measurements confirm and hopefully expand our inferences about mechanisms contributing to observed patterns of response. Based on conclusions drawn from these studies, we propose that three requirements will be essential as systems biology in poplar moves to reveal unique insights. These include use of genetically-defined individuals (e.g., pedigrees or transgenics) in studies; incorporation of modeling as a complement to transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic data; and inclusion of whole-tree and stand-level phenotypes to place

  5. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  6. THE VULNERABILITY OF THE BAIA MARE URBAN SYSTEM (ROMANIA TO EXTREME CLIMATE PHENOMENA DURING THE WARM SEMESTER OF THE YEAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DRAGOTĂ CARMEN

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The geographical position of the Baia Mare Urban System (intra-hilly depression favours the occurrence of a wide range of extreme climate phenomena which, coupled with the industrial profile of the city (non-ferrous mining and metallurgical industry triggering typical emissions (CO2, SOX, particulate matters and Pb, might pose a significant threat to human health. The article is aiming to assess the occurrence, frequency and amplitude of these extreme climate phenomena based on monthly and daily extreme climatic values from Baia Mare weather station in order to identify the areas more exposed. A GIS-based qualitative-heuristic method was used, each extreme climatic hazard being evaluated on a 1 to 3 scale according to its significance/impact in the study area and assigned with a weight (w and a rank (r, resulting the climate hazard map for the warm semester of the year. The authors further relate the areas exposed to the selected extreme climatic events to socio-economic aspects: demographic and economic in order to delineate the spatial distribution of the environmental vulnerability in the Baia Mare Urban System.

  7. Study on Characteristics of Climatic Variation in Yanhe Watershed during 1974-2004

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the climate changes of Yanhe watershed during 1974-2004. [Method] The monthly temperature and precipitation during 1974-2004 in seven representative stations in Yanhe watershed were chosen. By dint of climate statistics analysis method, accumulated anomaly and signal/noise ratio method, the regional temperature and precipitation changes in recent 31 years were expounded and its changes features and the year having climate mutation were found out. [Result] The climate changes...

  8. An Agent-based Extensible Climate Control System for Sustainable Greenhouse Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jan Corfixen; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard; Klein, Mark;

    2011-01-01

    The slow adoption pace of new control strategies for sustainable greenhouse climate control by industrial growers is mainly due to the complexity of identifying and resolving potentially conflicting climate control requirements. In this paper, we present a multi-agent-based climate control system....... Negotiation is done using a novel multi-issue negotiation protocol that uses a generic algorithm to find an optimized solution within the search space. The Multi-Agent control system has been empirically evaluated in an ornamental floriculture research facility in Denmark. The evaluation showed...... that it is realistic to implement the climate control requirements as individual agents, thereby opening greenhouse climate control systems for integration of independently produced control strategies....

  9. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  10. The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2016-02-01

    This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

  11. Revisiting the climate impacts of cool roofs around the globe using an Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George

    2016-08-01

    Solar reflective ‘cool roofs’ absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11 ± 0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14 ± 0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean

  12. The trophic responses of two different rodent–vector–plague systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. PMID:25540277

  13. Atmospheric Air –the Effective Source of Low-Grade Thermal Energy for Heat Pump Snow Melting Systems under Climatic Conditions of Moscow

    OpenAIRE

    Vasilyev G.P.; Leskov V.A.; Mitrofanova N.V.; Gornov V.F.; Kolesova M.V.; Yurchenko I.A.; Filippov M.D.

    2015-01-01

    The article presents the results of field experimental studies to evaluate effectiveness of heat pump snow melting systems use under climatic conditions of Moscow. The studies were conducted on a mock-up near-house heat pump snow melting site using low-grade atmospheric air heat. Experimental studies carried out in field conditions confirmed feasibility and efficiency of using atmospheric air as a source of low-grade heat for evaporators of heat pump snow melting systems under climatic condit...

  14. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concent

  15. Exterior Insulation Implications for Heating and Cooling Systems in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herk, Anastasia; Poerschke, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is interested in finding cost-effective solutions for deep energy retrofits (DERs) related to exterior wall insulation in a cold climate, with targets of 50% peak load reduction and 50% space conditioning energy savings. The U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, IBACOS, in collaboration with GreenHomes America, Inc. (GHA), was contracted by NYSERDA to research exterior wall insulation solutions. In addition to exterior wall insulation, the strategies included energy upgrades where needed in the attic, mechanical and ventilation systems, basement, band joist, walls, and floors. Under Building America, IBACOS is studying the impact of a “thermal enclosure” DER on the sizing of the space conditioning system and the occupant comfort if the thermal capacity of the heating and cooling system is dramatically downsized without any change in the existing heating and cooling distribution system (e.g., size, tightness and supply outlet configurations).

  16. Exterior Insulation Implications for Heating and Cooling Systems in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herk, Anastasia [IBACOS Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Poerschke, Andrew [IBACOS Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2015-04-09

    The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is interested in finding cost-effective solutions for deep energy retrofits (DERs) related to exterior wall insulation in a cold climate, with targets of 50% peak load reduction and 50% space conditioning energy savings. The U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, IBACOS, in collaboration with GreenHomes America, Inc. (GHA), was contracted by NYSERDA to research exterior wall insulation solutions. In addition to exterior wall insulation, the strategies included energy upgrades where needed in the attic, mechanical and ventilation systems, basement, band joist, walls, and floors. Under Building America, IBACOS is studying the impact of a “thermal enclosure” DER on the sizing of the space conditioning system and the occupant comfort if the thermal capacity of the heating and cooling system is dramatically downsized without any change in the existing heating and cooling distribution system (e.g., size, tightness and supply outlet configurations).

  17. Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

    2013-12-01

    In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced

  18. Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: Concepts, issues and management responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perry, Ian; Cury, Philippe; Brander, Keith;

    2010-01-01

    Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have ramificati...... of climate and fishing. Overall, a less-heavily fished marine system, and one which shifts the focus from individual species to functional groups and fish communities, is likely to provide more stable catches with climate variability and change than would a heavily fished system....

  19. An inverse approach to perturb historical rainfall data for scenario-neutral climate impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger

    2016-04-01

    Scenario-neutral approaches are used increasingly for climate impact assessments, as they allow water resource system performance to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. An important element of these approaches is the generation of perturbed series of hydrometeorological variables that form the inputs to hydrologic and water resource assessment models, with most scenario-neutral studies to-date considering only shifts in the average of each variable. In this study a stochastic generation approach is used to perturb not only the average of the relevant hydrometeorological variables, but also attributes such as the intermittency and extremes. An optimization-based inverse approach is developed to obtain hydroclimatic time series with uniform coverage across the range of possible rainfall attributes (referred to as the 'exposure space'). The approach is demonstrated using a widely used rainfall generator, WGEN, at a case study at Adelaide, Australia, and is shown to be capable of producing evenly-distributed samples over the exposure space. The inverse approach expands the applicability of the scenario-neutral approach in evaluating a water resource system's sensitivity to a wider range of plausible climate change scenarios.

  20. Using climate response functions in analyzing electricity production variables. A case study from Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøfte, Lena S.; Martino, Sara; Mo, Birger

    2016-04-01

    This study analyses whether and to which extent today's hydropower system and reservoirs in Mid-Norway are able to balance new intermittent energy sources in the region, in both today's and tomorrow's climate. We also investigate if the electricity marked model EMPS gives us reasonable results also when run in a multi simulation mode without recalibration. Climate related energy (CRE) is influenced by the weather, the system for energy production and transport, and by market mechanisms. In the region of Mid-Norway, nearly all power demand is generated by hydro-electric facilities. Due to energy deficiency and limitations in the power grid the region experiences a deficit of electricity. The region is likely to experience considerable investments in wind power and small-scale hydropower and the transmission grid within and out of the region will probably be extended, so this situation might change. In addition climate change scenarios for the region agree on higher temperatures, more precipitation in total and a larger portion of the precipitation coming as rain instead of snow, as well as we expect slightly higher wind speed and more storms during the winter. Changing temperatures will also change the electricity demand. EMPS is a tool for forecasting and planning in electricity markets, developed for optimization and simulation of hydrothermal power systems with a considerable share of hydro power. It takes into account transport constraints and hydrological differences between major areas or regional subsystems. During optimization the objective is to minimize the expected cost in the whole system subject to all constraints. Incremental water values (marginal costs for hydropower) are computed for each area using stochastic dynamic programming. A heuristic approach is used to treat the interaction between areas. In the simulation part of the model total system costs are minimized week by week for each climate scenario in a linear problem formulation. A detailed

  1. Speeding up CRMs for cloud-climate interaction studies by acceleration of mean state tendencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are routinely used to simulate boundary-layer and deep convective cloud processes, aid in the development of moist physical parameterization for global models, study cloud-climate feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interaction, and as the heart of superparameterized climate models. CRMs are computationally demanding, placing practical constraints on their use in these applications, especially for long, climate-relevant simulations. In many situations, the horizontal-mean atmospheric structure evolves slowly compared to the turnover time of the most energetic turbulent eddies. We use this time scale separation to accelerate the time-integration of a CRM, the System for Atmospheric Modelling. Our approach uses a large time step to evolve the horizontally averaged state variables, followed by a short time step to calculate the turbulent fluctuations about the mean state. Using this approach, we are able to accelerate the model evolution by a factor of 8 or more in idealized stratocumulus, shallow and deep cumulus convection without substantial loss of accuracy in simulating mean cloud statistics and their sensitivity to climate change perturbations. We show how to adapt the approach to challenges arising from rapidly falling precipitation and from advecting scalars with a variety of lifetimes.

  2. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  3. Integrated hydrological SVAT model for climate change studies in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollerup, M.; Refsgaard, J.; Sonnenborg, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    hydrological impacts of characterising climate change in terms of changes in the reference evapotranspiration or in the individual climate variables have been analysed. References Abrahamsen, P., and Hansen, S. (2000) Daisy: An Open Soil-Crop-Atmosphere System Model. Environ. Model. Software 15, 313-330. Hansen, S., Jensen, H. E., Nielsen, N. E., and Svendsen, H. (1990). Daisy - soil plant atmostphere system model. Technical Report A10, Miljostyrelsen. Henriksen, H. J., Troldborg, L., Nyegaard, P., Sonnenborg, T. O., Refsgaard, J. C. and Madsen, B. (2003) Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark. Journal of Hydrology 280(1-4), 52-71. Henriksen, H. J., Troldborg, L., Hojberg, A. L. and Refsgaard, J. C. (2008) Assessment of exploitable groundwater resources of Denmark by use of ensemble resource indicators and a numerical groundwater-surface water model. Journal of Hydrology 348(1-2), 224-240.

  4. Robust cropping systems to tackle pests under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lamichhane, Jay Ram; Barzman, Marco; Booij, Kees;

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture in the twenty-first century faces the challenge of meeting food demands while satisfying sustainability goals. The challenge is further complicated by climate change which affects the distribution of crop pests (intended as insects, plants, and pathogenic agents injurious to crops......) and the severity of their outbreaks. Increasing concerns over health and the environment as well as new legislation on pesticide use, particularly in the European Union, urge us to find sustainable alternatives to pesticide-based pest management. Here, we review the effect of climate change on crop protection...... and propose strategies to reduce the impact of future invasive as well as rapidly evolving resident populations. The major points are the following: (1) the main consequence of climate change and globalization is a heightened level of unpredictability of spatial and temporal interactions between weather...

  5. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  6. Climate change adaptation strategies: Water resources management options for smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Ngigi, S.N.

    2009-01-01

    Metadata only record This report describes a study that evaluated water management systems and their potential to address water scarcity problems in sub-Saharan Africa. Stress on water availability induced by climate change is negatively affecting smallholders causing crop productivity to decline. This study also notes that political and financial support of these small-scale water management systems is very important for sustainability. These researchers argue that there needs to be a Blu...

  7. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  8. Advanced Extended Plate and Beam Wall System in a Cold-Climate House

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, Dave [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Wiehagen, Joseph [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Kochkin, Vladimir [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States)

    2016-01-29

    This report presents the design and evaluation of an innovative wall system. This highly insulated (high-R) light-frame wall system for use above grade in residential buildings is referred to as Extended Plate & Beam (EP&B). The EP&B design is the first of its kind to be featured in a new construction test house (NCTH) for the DOE Building America program. The EP&B wall design integrates standard building methods and common building products to construct a high-R wall that minimizes transition risks and costs to builders. The EP&B design combines optimized framing with integrated rigid foam sheathing to increase the wall system's R-value and reduce thermal bridging. The foam sheathing is installed between the wall studs and structural wood sheathing. The exterior wood sheathing is attached directly to a framing extension formed by extended top and bottom plates. The exterior wood sheathing can dry to the exterior and provides bracing, a clear drainage plane and flashing surface for window and door openings, and a nailing surface for siding attachment. With support of the DOE Building America program, Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with Lancaster County Career and Technology Center (LCCTC) to build a NCTH in Lancaster, PA to demonstrate the EP&B wall design in a cold climate (IECC climate zone 5A). The results of the study confirmed the benefits of the systems and the viability of its integration into the house construction process.

  9. Contribution of anthropology to the study of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Jessica; Dove, Michael; Lahsen, Myanna; Mathews, Andrew; McElwee, Pamela; McIntosh, Roderick; Moore, Frances; O'Reilly, Jessica; Orlove, Ben; Puri, Rajindra; Weiss, Harvey; Yager, Karina

    2013-06-01

    Understanding the challenge that climate change poses and crafting appropriate adaptation and mitigation mechanisms requires input from the breadth of the natural and social sciences. Anthropology's in-depth fieldwork methodology, long engagement in questions of society-environment interactions and broad, holistic view of society yields valuable insights into the science, impacts and policy of climate change. Yet the discipline's voice in climate change debates has remained a relatively marginal one until now. Here, we identify three key ways that anthropological research can enrich and deepen contemporary understandings of climate change.

  10. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs

  11. Self-organized criticality of power system faults and its application in adaptation to extreme climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU Sheng; LI YinHong; DUAN XianZhong

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the statistics of faults in a transmission and distribution networks in central China, unveils long-term autocorrelation and power law distribution of power system faults, which indicates that power system fault has self-organized criticality (SOC) feature. The conclusion is consistent with the power systems data in 2008 with ice storm present. Since power systems cover large areas, climate is the key factor to its safety and stability. In-depth analysis shows that the SOC of atmosphere system contributes much to that of power system faults. Extreme climate will be more intense and frequent with global warming, it will have more and more impact upon power systems. The SOC feature of power system faults is utilized to develop approaches to facilitate power systems adaptation to climate varia-tion in an economical and efficient way.

  12. Knowledge systems of societies for adaptation and mitigation of impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is broadly recognized as a key environmental issue affecting social and ecological systems worldwide. At the Cancun summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's 16th Conference, the parties jointly agreed that the vulnerable groups particularly in developing countries and whose livelihood is based on land use practices are the most common victims as in most cases their activities are shaped by the climate. Therefore, solving the climate dilemma through mitigation processes and scientific research is an ethical concern. Thus combining the knowledge systems of the societies and scientific evidences can greatly assist in the creation of coping mechanisms for sustainable development in a situation of changing climate. International Humboldt Kolleg focusing on ''knowledge systems of societies and Climate Change'' was organized at ISEC. This event was of unique importance, as the year 2011-12 was celebrated as the 60th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between India and Germany with the motto ''Germany and India - Infinite Opportunities.'' This volume is the outcome of the papers presented during the IHK 2011 at ISEC, India. It reports on the present knowledge systems in a third world country which has always practiced a live and let live philosophy. Furthermore it provides valuable information for understanding the complexity of socio-ecological systems in relation to the projected impacts of climate change.

  13. Knowledge systems of societies for adaptation and mitigation of impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nautiyal, Sunil; Raju, K.V. [Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources; Rao, K.S. [Delhi Univ. (India). Dept. of Botany; Kaechele, Harald [Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Muencheberg (Germany). Inst. of Socioeconomics; Schaldach, Ruediger (ed.) [Kassel Univ. (Germany). Centre for Environmental System Research

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is broadly recognized as a key environmental issue affecting social and ecological systems worldwide. At the Cancun summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's 16th Conference, the parties jointly agreed that the vulnerable groups particularly in developing countries and whose livelihood is based on land use practices are the most common victims as in most cases their activities are shaped by the climate. Therefore, solving the climate dilemma through mitigation processes and scientific research is an ethical concern. Thus combining the knowledge systems of the societies and scientific evidences can greatly assist in the creation of coping mechanisms for sustainable development in a situation of changing climate. International Humboldt Kolleg focusing on ''knowledge systems of societies and Climate Change'' was organized at ISEC. This event was of unique importance, as the year 2011-12 was celebrated as the 60th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between India and Germany with the motto ''Germany and India - Infinite Opportunities.'' This volume is the outcome of the papers presented during the IHK 2011 at ISEC, India. It reports on the present knowledge systems in a third world country which has always practiced a live and let live philosophy. Furthermore it provides valuable information for understanding the complexity of socio-ecological systems in relation to the projected impacts of climate change.

  14. A Fast Version of LASG/IAP Climate System Model and Its 1000-year Control Integration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tianjun; WU Bo; WEN Xinyu; LI Lijuan; WANG Bin

    2008-01-01

    A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geo- physical Fluid Dynamics (LASG)/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) climate system model is briefly documented. The fast coupled model employs a low resolution version of the atmospheric component Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG (GAMIL), with the other parts of the model, namely an oceanic com- ponent LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model (LICOM), land component Common Land Model (CLM), and sea ice component from National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR CCSM2), as the same as in the standard version of LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System model (FGOALS_g). The parameterizatious of physical and dynamical processes of the at- mospheric component in the fast version are identical to the standard version, although some parameter values are different. However, by virtue of reduced horizontal resolution and increased time-step of the most time-consuming atmospheric component, it runs faster by a factor of 3 and can serve as a useful tool for long- term and large-ensemble integrations. A 1000-year control simulation of the present-day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. The final 600 years of this simulation has virtually no trends in global mean sea surface temperatures and is recommended for internal variability studies. Several aspects of the control simulation's mean climate and variability axe evaluated against the observational or reanalysis data. The strengths and weaknesses of the control simulation are evaluated. The mean atmospheric circulation is well simulated, except in high latitudes. The Asian-Australian monsoonal meridional cell shows realistic features, however, an artificial rainfall center is located to the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau persists throughout the year. The mean bias of SST resembles that of the standard version, appearing as a "double ITCZ" (Inter

  15. An Integrated Control System for Heating and Indoor Climate Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahersima, Fatemeh

    2012-01-01

    Low temperature hydronic heating and cooling systems connected to renewable energy sources have gained more attention in the recent decades. This is due to the growing public awareness of the adverse environmental impacts of energy generation using fossil fuel. Radiant hydronic sub-floor heating...... pipes and radiator panels are two examples of such systems that have reputation of improving the quality of indoor thermal comfort compared to forced-air heating or cooling units. Specifically, a radiant water-based sub-floor heating system is usually combined with low temperature heat sources, among...... which geothermal heat pump, solar driven heat pumps and the other types are categorized as renewable or renewable energy sources. In the present study, we investigated modeling and control of hydronic heat emitters integrated with a ground-source heat pump. Optimization of the system performance...

  16. Load calculation and system evaluation for electric vehicle climate control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aceves-Saborio, S.; Comfort, W.J. III

    1993-10-27

    Providing air conditioning for electric vehicles (EVs) represents an important challenge, because vapor compression air conditioners, which are common in gasoline powered vehicles, may consume a substantial part of the total energy stored in the EV battery. This report consists of two major parts. The first part is a cooling and heating load calculation for electric vehicles. The second part is an evaluation of several systems that can be used to provide the desired cooling and heating in EVs. Four cases are studied. Short range and full range EVs are each analyzed twice, first with the regular vehicle equipment, and then with a fan and heat reflecting windows, to reduce hot soak. Recent legislation has allowed the use of combustion heating whenever the ambient temperature drops below 5{degrees}C. This has simplified the problem of heating, and made cooling the most important problem. Therefore, systems described in this project are designed for cooling, and their applicability to heating at temperatures above 5{degrees}C is described. If the air conditioner systems cannot be used to cover the whole heating load at 5{degrees}C, then the vehicle requires a complementary heating system (most likely a heat recovery system or electric resistance heating). Air conditioners are ranked according to their overall weight. The overall weight is calculated by adding the system weight and the weight of the battery necessary to provide energy for system operation.

  17. New Methods for Gas Hydrate Energy and Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppel, C. D.; Pohlman, J.; Waite, W. F.; Hunt, A. G.; Stern, L. A.; Casso, M.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past few years, the USGS Gas Hydrates Project has focused on advancements designed to enhance both energy resource and climate-hydrate interaction studies. On the energy side, the USGS now manages the Pressure Core Characterization Tools (PCCTs), which includes the Instrumented Pressure Testing Chamber (IPTC) that we have long maintained. These tools, originally built at Georgia Tech, are being used to analyze hydrate-bearing sediments recovered in pressure cores during gas hydrate drilling programs (e.g., Nankai 2012; India 2015). The USGS is now modifying the PCCTs for use on high-hydrate-saturation and sand-rich sediments and hopes to catalyze third-party tool development (e.g., visualization). The IPTC is also being used for experiments on sediments hosting synthetic methane hydrate, and our scanning electron microscope has recently been enhanced with a new cryo-stage for imaging hydrates. To support climate-hydrate interaction studies, the USGS has been re-assessing the amount of methane hydrate in permafrost-associated settings at high northern latitudes and examined the links between methane carbon emissions and gas hydrate dissociation. One approach relies on the noble gas signature of methane emissions. Hydrate dissociation uniquely releases noble gases partitioned by molecular weight, providing a potential fingerprint for hydrate-sourced methane emissions. In addition, we have linked a DOC analyzer with an IRMS at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, allowing rapid and precise measurement of DOC and DIC concentrations and carbon isotopic signatures. The USGS has also refined methods to measure real-time sea-air flux of methane and CO2 using cavity ring-down spectroscopy measurements coupled with other data. Acquiring ~8000 km of data on the Western Arctic, US Atlantic, and Svalbard margins, we have tested the Arctic methane catastrophe hypothesis and the link between seafloor methane emissions and sea-air methane flux.

  18. An integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-03-01

    This paper describes an integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyse uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the economic model parameters and uncertainty in future climate policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. Thus, the IGSM-CAM is a computationally efficient framework to explore the uncertainty in future global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions. This study presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) and three sets of climate parameters. The chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century global climate change. As such, this study presents new estimates of the 90% probability interval of regional climate change for different emissions scenarios. These results underscore the large uncertainty in regional climate change resulting from uncertainty in climate parameters and emissions, especially when it comes to changes in precipitation.

  19. An integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Monier

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an integrated assessment modelling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0 incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyse uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the economic model parameters and uncertainty in future climate policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. Thus, the IGSM-CAM is a computationally efficient framework to explore the uncertainty in future global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions. This study presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent and three sets of climate parameters. The chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century global climate change. As such, this study presents new estimates of the 90% probability interval of regional climate change for different emissions scenarios. These results underscore the large uncertainty in regional climate change resulting from uncertainty in climate parameters and emissions, especially when it comes to changes in precipitation.

  20. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  1. Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song YANG; WEN Min; R Wayne HIGGINS

    2008-01-01

    The operational climate forecast system (CFS) of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predic-tions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizon-tal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of mon-soon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic time-scale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encoun-ters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-to-interannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequencyvariability of the Asian monsoon.

  2. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  4. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  5. A Spatial Extrapolation Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pina, J.; Tilmant, A.; Anctil, F.

    2015-12-01

    The typical approach to assess climate change impacts on water resources systems is based on a vertical integration/coupling of models: GCM models are run to project future precipitations and temperatures, which are then downscaled and used as inputs to hydrologic models whose outputs are processed by water systems models. From a decision-making point of view, this top-down vertical approach presents some challenges. For example, since the range of uncertainty that can be explored with GCM is limited, researchers are relying on ensembles to enlarge the spread, making the modeling approach even more demanding in terms of computation time and resource. When a particular water system must be analyzed, the question is to know whether this computationally intensive vertical approach is necessary in the first place or if we could extrapolate projections available in neighboring systems to feed the water system model? This would be equivalent to a horizontal approach. The proposed study addresses this question by comparing the performance of a water resource system under future climate conditions using the vertical and horizontal approaches. The methodology is illustrated with the hydropower system of the Gatineau River Basin in Quebec, Canada. Vertically obtained hydrologic projections available in those river basins are extrapolated and used as inputs to a stochastic multireservoir optimization model. Two different extrapolation techniques are tested. The first one simply relies on the ratios between the drainage areas. The second exploits the covariance structure found in historical flow data throughout the region. The analysis of the simulation results reveals that the annual and weekly energy productions of the system derived from the horizontal approach are statistically equivalent to those obtained with the vertical one, regardless of the extrapolation technique used.

  6. Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterling, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

  7. Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

    2005-03-24

    Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

  8. Energetic, Exergetic and Exergoeconomic Analysis of CO2 Refrigeration Systems Operating in Hot Climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gullo, Paride; Elmegaard, Brian; Cortella, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Carbon dioxide is one of the most interesting refrigerants in terms of both environmental impact and efficiency at low outdoor temperatures. Its use in warm climates still needs for some improvements as well as some economic evaluations in order to analyse its real potential in such weather...... conditions. CO2 refrigeration system with parallel compression represents one of the solutions which have been proposed in the last few years in order to enhance the performance of a single-stage refrigeration system. The main target of this study is to compare the thermodynamic efficiency and the final cost...... of the product of a R744 refrigeration solution with auxiliary compressor with those of a R744 conventional system, both of them operating in transcritical conditions. The results pointed out that the adoption of an auxiliary compressor resulted in an increase of the COP by approximately 18.7% over...

  9. Prediction of the performance of a solar water detoxification system under Malaysian climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jubran, B.A.; Ismail, A.F.; Pervez, T. [International Islamic University Malaysia, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    2000-07-01

    This paper reports a prediction study for computing the ultra violet (UV) light received by two types of solar collector systems used in solar detoxification systems under Malaysian climatic conditions. Furthermore, the average daily yield outputs of two types of solar detoxification are predicted. The predicted results indicate that the average daily UV light insolation throughout the year in Malaysia is almost constant with values of 40 and 30 W/m{sup 2} for flat plate and compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) collectors, respectively. The average daily yield outputs of the solar detoxification systems investigated are 1000 l/m{sup 2} for the flat plate collector and 600 l/m{sup 2} for the CPC collector with unit costs per 1000 gallons of 36 US dollars and 42 US dollars for flat plate and CPC collectors, respectively. (Author)

  10. Systems thinking methodology in researching the impacts of climate change on livestock industry

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Quan; Nguyen, Nam Cao

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on livestock production are complex problems, existing in the rela-tionship among this sector and others sectors such as environmental, social, economic and political systems. The complexity and dynamic of these impacts cannot be solved simply in isolation with the linear approach. A system thinking methodology is introduced in this paper to understand the impacts of climate change on livestock production, and identify effective interventions strategies to addres...

  11. Impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower systems in central and southern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamududu, Byman H.

    2012-11-15

    Climate change is altering hydrological processes with varying degrees in various regions of the world. This research work investigates the possible impacts of climate change on water resource and Hydropower production potential in central and southern Africa. The Congo, Zambezi and Kwanza, Shire, Kafue and Kabompo basins that lie in central and southern Africa are used as case studies. The review of climate change impact studies shows that there are few studies on impacts of climate change on hydropower production. Most of these studies were carried out in Europe and north America and very few in Asia, south America and Africa. The few studies indicate that southern Africa would experience reduction in precipitation and runoff, consequently reductions in hydropower production. There are no standard methods of assessing the resulting impacts. Two approaches were used to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower. One approach is lumping changes on country or regional level and use the mean climate changes on mean annual flows as the basis for regional changes in hydropower production. This is done to get an overall picture of the changes on global and regional level. The second approach is a detailed assessment process in which downscaling, hydrological modelling and hydropower simulations are carried out. The possible future climate scenarios for the region of central and southern Africa depicted that some areas where precipitation are likely to have increases while other, precipitation will reduce. The region northern Zambia and southern Congo showed increases while the northern Congo basin showed reductions. Further south in southern African region, there is a tendency of decreases in precipitation. To the west, in Angola, inland showed increases while towards the coast highlighted some decreases in precipitation. On a global scale, hydropower is likely to experience slight changes (0.08%) due to climate change by 2050. Africa is

  12. Portfolio of recent climate change studies utilizing AMS at ANTARES, ANSTO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) to the measurement of the radionuclides 14C, 10Be, 26Al and 36Cl has dramatically increased our understanding of factors that affect climate and has led to a greater understanding of natural processes. Using the ANTARES AMS facility at ANSTO we are able to analyse samples containing as few as 105 atoms of these radionuclides. Cosmogenic radionuclides produced by the interaction of cosmic rays with the upper atmosphere and exposed surface rocks are stored in natural archives. By measuring small variations in the concentrations of these isotopes over time, information can be inferred about the systems governing these changes. Over the last four years we have undertaken a broad range of climate change and environmental studies, based on the ultra-sensitive technique of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Some specific examples of projects investigating the ice sheet at Law Dome, Antarctica and minerals extracted from geological surface formations will be given

  13. Crop yield network and its response to changes in climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokozawa, M.

    2013-12-01

    Crop failure (reduction in crop yield) due to extreme weather and climate change could lead to unstable food supply, reflecting the recent globalization in world agricultural production. Specifically, in several major production countries producing large amount of main cereal crops, wheat, maize, soybean and rice, abrupt crop failures in wide area are significantly serious for world food supply system. We examined the simultaneous changes in crop yield in USA, China and Brazil, in terms of the changes in climate system such as El Nino, La nina and so on. In this study, we defined a crop yield networks, which represent the correlation between yearly changes in crop yields and climate resources during the crop growing season in two regions. The climate resources during the crop growing season represents here the average temperature and the accumulated precipitation during the crop growing season of a target crop. As climate data, we used a reanalysis climate data JRA-25 (Japan Meteorological Agency). The yearly changes in crop yields are based on a gridded crop productivity database with a resolution of 1.125 degree in latitude/longitude (Iizumi et al. 2013). It is constructed from the agriculture statistics issued by local administrative bureau in each country, which covers the period during 1982 to 2006 (25 years). For the regions being lack of data, the data was interpolated referring to NPP values estimated by satellite data. Crop yield network is constructed as follows: (1) let DY(i,y) be negative difference in crop yield of year y from the trend yield at grid i; (2) define the correlation of the differences Cij(y) = DY(i, y) DY(j, y); (3) if Cij(y) > Q, then grids i and j are mutually linked for a threshold value Q. Links between grids make a crop yield network. It is here noted that only negative differences are taken into account because we focused on the lean year cases (i.e. yields of both grids were lower than those in the long-term trend). The arrays of

  14. Teaching Scales in the Climate System: An example of interdisciplinary teaching and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baehr, Johanna; Behrens, Jörn; Brüggemann, Michael; Frisius, Thomas; Glessmer, Mirjam S.; Hartmann, Jens; Hense, Inga; Kaleschke, Lars; Kutzbach, Lars; Rödder, Simone; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is commonly regarded as one of 21st century's grand challenges that needs to be addressed by conducting integrated research combining natural and social sciences. To meet this need, how to best train future climate researchers should be reconsidered. Here, we present our experience from a team-taught semester-long course with students of the international master program "Integrated Climate System Sciences" (ICSS) at the University of Hamburg, Germany. Ten lecturers with different backgrounds in physical, mathematical, biogeochemical and social sciences accompanied by a researcher trained in didactics prepared and regularly participated in a course which consisted of weekly classes. The foundation of the course was the use of the concept of 'scales' - climate varying on different temporal and spatial scales - by developing a joint definition of 'scales in the climate system' that is applicable in the natural sciences and in the social sciences. By applying this interdisciplinary definition of 'scales' to phenomena from all components of the climate system and the socio-economic dimensions, we aimed for an integrated description of the climate system. Following the concept of research-driven teaching and learning and using a variety of teaching techniques, the students designed their own scale diagram to illustrate climate-related phenomena in different disciplines. The highlight of the course was the presentation of individually developed scale diagrams by every student with all lecturers present. Based on the already conducted course, we currently re-design the course concept to be teachable by a similarly large group of lecturers but with alternating presence in class. With further refinement and also a currently ongoing documentation of the teaching material, we will continue to use the concept of 'scales' as a vehicle for teaching an integrated view of the climate system.

  15. [Research progress on carbon sink function of agroforestry system under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Ting-Ting; Su, Pei-Xi; Zhou, Zi-Juan; Shan, Li-Shan

    2014-10-01

    As a land comprehensive utilization system, agroforestry system can absorb and fix CO2 effectively to increase carbon storage, and also reduces greenhouse effect convincingly while reaching the aim of harvest. The regulatory role in CO2 makes humans realize that agroforestry systems have significant superiority compared with single cropping systems, therefore, understanding the carbon sinks of different components in an agroforestry system and its influencing factors play an important role in studying global carbon cycle and accurate evaluation of carbon budget. This paper reviewed the concept and classification of agroforestry system, and then the carbon sequestration potentials of different components in agroforestry systems and influencing factors. It was concluded that the carbon sequestration rate of plants from different agroforestry systems in different regions are highly variable, ranging from 0.59 to 11.08 t C · hm(-2) · a(-1), and it is mainly influenced by climatic factors and the characteristics of agroforestry systems (species composition, tree density and stand age). The soil C sequestration of any agroforestry system is influenced by the amount and quality of biomass input provided by tree and nontree components of the system and the soil properties such as soil texture and soil structure. Overall the amount of carbon storage in any agroforestry system depends on the structure and function of its each component. The future studies should focus on the carbon sink functions of structurally optimized agroforestry systems, the temporal variation and spatial distribution pattern of carbon storage in agroforestry system and its carbon sequestration mechanism in a long time.

  16. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    environment change, formation mechanism and prediction theory of major climate and weather disasters in China, technologies of efficient use of clean energy, energy conservation and improvement of energy efficiency, development and utilisation technology of renewable energy and new energy. The EU recognises that developing countries, such as China and India, need to strengthen their economies through industrialisation. However this needs to be achieved at the same time as protecting the environment and sustainable use of energy. The EU has committed itself to assisting developing countries to achieve their goals in four priority areas: 1) raising the policy profile of climate change; 2) support for adaption to climate change; 3) support for mitigation of climate change; and 4) capacity development. This comparative study is part of the EU funded SPRING project which seeks to understand and assess Chinese and European competencies, with the aim of facilitating greater cooperation in future climate and environment research.

  17. Direct and semi-direct aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate variability using a coupled regional climate system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc; Sevault, Florence; Chiacchio, Marc; Wild, Martin

    2015-02-01

    A fully coupled regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM4) has been used over the Mediterranean region to investigate the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols, but also their role in the radiation-atmosphere-ocean interactions through multi-annual ensemble simulations (2003-2009) with and without aerosols and ocean-atmosphere coupling. Aerosols have been taken into account in CNRM-RCSM4 through realistic interannual monthly AOD climatologies. An evaluation of the model has been achieved, against various observations for meteorological parameters, and has shown the ability of CNRM-RCSM4 to reproduce the main patterns of the Mediterranean climate despite some biases in sea surface temperature (SST), radiation and cloud cover. The results concerning the aerosol radiative effects show a negative surface forcing on average because of the absorption and scattering of the incident radiation. The SW surface direct effect is on average -20.9 Wm-2 over the Mediterranean Sea, -14.7 Wm-2 over Europe and -19.7 Wm-2 over northern Africa. The LW surface direct effect is weaker as only dust aerosols contribute (+4.8 Wm-2 over northern Africa). This direct effect is partly counterbalanced by a positive semi-direct radiative effect over the Mediterranean Sea (+5.7 Wm-2 on average) and Europe (+5.0 Wm-2) due to changes in cloud cover and atmospheric circulation. The total aerosol effect is consequently negative at the surface and responsible for a decrease in land (on average -0.4 °C over Europe, and -0.5 °C over northern Africa) and sea surface temperature (on average -0.5 °C for the Mediterranean SST). In addition, the latent heat loss is shown to be weaker (-11.0 Wm-2) in the presence of aerosols, resulting in a decrease in specific humidity in the lower troposphere, and a reduction in cloud cover and precipitation. Simulations also indicate that dust aerosols warm the troposphere by absorbing solar radiation, and prevent radiation from reaching the surface, thus

  18. Multi-year GNSS monitoring of atmospheric IWV over Central and South America for climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Clara Eugenia; Mendoza, Luciano Pedro Oscar; Fernández, Laura Isabel; Natali, María Paula; Meza, Amalia Margarita; Francisco Moirano, Juan

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric water vapour has been acknowledged as an essential climate variable. Weather prediction and hazard assessment systems benefit from real-time observations, whereas long-term records contribute to climate studies. Nowadays, ground-based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) products have become widely employed, complementing satellite observations over the oceans. Although the past decade has seen a significant development of the GNSS infrastructure in Central and South America, its potential for atmospheric water vapour monitoring has not been fully exploited. With this in mind, we have performed a regional, 7-year-long and homogeneous analysis, comprising 136 GNSS tracking stations, obtaining high-rate and continuous observations of column-integrated water vapour and troposphere zenith total delay. As a preliminary application for this data set, we have estimated local water vapour trends, their significance, and their relation with specific climate regimes. We have found evidence of drying at temperate regions in South America, at a rate of about 2 % per decade, while a slow moistening of the troposphere over tropical regions is also weakly suggested by our results. Furthermore, we have assessed the regional performance of the empirical model GPT2w to blindly estimate troposphere delays. The model reproduces the observed mean delays fairly well, including their annual and semi-annual variations. Nevertheless, a long-term evaluation has shown systematical biases, up to 20 mm, probably inherited from the underlying atmospheric reanalysis. Additionally, the complete data set has been made openly available as supplementary material.

  19. Residential Solar-Based Seasonal Thermal Storage Systems in Cold Climates: Building Envelope and Thermal Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Hugo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of electricity use for heating and domestic hot water in cold climates can be achieved by: (1 reducing the heating loads through the improvement of the thermal performance of house envelopes, and (2 using solar energy through a residential solar-based thermal storage system. First, this paper presents the life cycle energy and cost analysis of a typical one-storey detached house, located in Montreal, Canada. Simulation of annual energy use is performed using the TRNSYS software. Second, several design alternatives with improved thermal resistance for walls, ceiling and windows, increased overall air tightness, and increased window-to-wall ratio of South facing windows are evaluated with respect to the life cycle energy use, life cycle emissions and life cycle cost. The solution that minimizes the energy demand is chosen as a reference house for the study of long-term thermal storage. Third, the computer simulation of a solar heating system with solar thermal collectors and long-term thermal storage capacity is presented. Finally, the life cycle cost and life cycle energy use of the solar combisystem are estimated for flat-plate solar collectors and evacuated tube solar collectors, respectively, for the economic and climatic conditions of this study.

  20. Modeling the Roles of Precipitation Increasing in Glacier Systems Responding to Climate Warming - Taking Xinjiang Glaciated Region as Example

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xin; XIE Zichu; LIU Shiyin; TAO Jianjun; HAN Yongshun; YANG Yuelong

    2005-01-01

    The studies on prediction of climate in Xinjiang almost show that the precipitation would increase in the coming 50 years, although there were surely some uncertainties in precipitation predictions.On the basis of the structure of glacier system and nature of equilibrium line altitude at steady state (ELAo), a functional model of the glacier system responding to climate changes was established, and it simultaneously involved the rising of summer mean temperature and increasing of mean precipitation.The results from the functional model under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rates of 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05 K/year indicated that the precipitation increasing would play an evident role in glacier system responding to climate change: if temperature become 1℃ higher, the precipitation would be increased by 10%, which can slow down the glaciers retreating rate in the area by 4%, accelerate runoff increasing rate by 8% and depress the ELAo rising gradient by 24 m in northern Xinjiang glacier system where semi-continental glaciers dominate,while it has corresponding values of only 1%, 5 % and 18m respectively in southern Xinjiang glacier system,where extremely continental glaciers dominate.

  1. An Integrated Control System for Heating and Indoor Climate Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Tahersima, Fatemeh

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated modeling and control of hydronic heat emitters integrated with a ground-source heat pump. Optimization of the system performance in terms of energy efficiency, associated energy cost and occupants' thermal comfort is the main objective to be fulfilled via de-sign of an integrated controller. We also proposed control strategies to manage energy consumption of the building to turn domestic heat demands into a flexible load in the smart electricity grid. We ...

  2. Influence of external climate forcing on coastal upwelling systems analysed in ensemble of past millennium climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit; Yi, Xin; Emeis, Kay

    2016-04-01

    Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are highly productive coastal ocean areas where nutrient rich, cold water upwells by the action of favorable winds. Observations over the 20th century and ocean sediment records, which may be indicative of upwelling, display an intensification due to stronger external climate forcing, such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or changes in solar irradiance. This intensification is compatible with the hypothesis put forward by Bakun (1990) that a stronger external radiative forcing should lead to a more intense coastal upwelling. Here, we analyze ensemble of simulations covering the past millennium with the aim of identifying and quantifying the role of external climate forcing on upwelling in the major Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. We analyse the decadal variability and centennial trends of upwelling in ensemble of simulations with the global climate model MPI-ESM covering the past millennium, the last 150 years and the next 100 years. The future simulations were driven by three IPCC scenarios of concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. For the past millennium and the last 150 years, coastal upwelling does not show any imprint of external forcing. This result indicates that chaotic internal variability has dominated upwelling intensity in major upwelling regions over the last thousand years and even since industrialisation up to present. For the 21st century, all ensemble members show a consistent and significant intensification of upwelling in the strongest scenario RCP8.5 for the Benguela upwelling region, consistent and significant weakening for Morocco and California, and no significant change for the Peruvian upwelling. Weaker scenarios do not produce consistent long-term trends that are replicated in all ensemble members. The results are confirmed by analysing another ensemble of past millennium simulations with the model CESM-CAM5 (Community Earth System Model

  3. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. W. Jewitt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. A further difficulty in assessing these interactions will be that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model could be used with confidence to simulate the

  4. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. W. Jewitt

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. Further difficulties in assessing these interactions are that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model can be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows

  5. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

  6. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  7. A bottom-up, vulnerability-based framework for identifying the adaptive capacity of water resources systems in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, Sam; Noble, Stephanie; Timbs, Michael; Yates, Adam; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Maier, Holger; Westra, Seth

    2015-04-01

    Water resource system infrastructure and operating policies are commonly designed on the assumption that the statistics of future rainfall, temperature and other hydrometeorological variables are equal to those of the historical record. There is now substantial evidence demonstrating that this assumption is no longer valid, and that climate change will significantly impact water resources systems worldwide. Under different climatic inputs, the performance of these systems may degrade to a point where they become unable to meet the primary objectives for which they were built. In such a changing context, using existing infrastructure more efficiently - rather than planning additional infrastructure - becomes key to restore the system's performance at acceptable levels and minimize financial investments and associated risk. The traditional top-down approach for assessing climate change impacts relies on the use of a cascade of models from the global to the local scale. However, it is often difficult to utilize this top-down approach in a decision-making procedure, as there is disparity amongst various climate projections, arising from incomplete scientific understanding of the complicated processes and feedbacks within the climate system, and model limitations in reproducing those relationships. In contrast with this top-down approach, this study contributes a framework to identify the adaptive capacity of water resource systems under changing climatic conditions adopting a bottom-up, vulnerability-based approach. The performance of the current system management is first assessed for a comprehensive range of climatic conditions, which are independent of climate model forecasts. The adaptive capacity of the system is then estimated by re-evaluating the performance of a set of adaptive operating policies, which are optimized for each climatic condition under which the system is simulated. The proposed framework reverses the perspective by identifying water system

  8. A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李崇银; 何金海; 朱锦红

    2004-01-01

    Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability,the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.

  9. Explicit convection studies in a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Malcolm J.; Peatman, Simon; Birch, Cathryn; Mizielinski, Matthew; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Schiemann, Reinhard

    2014-05-01

    Most global climate models typically have a diurnal cycle of precipitation peaking near midday in the tropics, which is primarily attributed to the formulation of the parameterisation of convection. Recent advances in supercomputing have made it possible to follow the lead of regional modelling (such as the CASCADE project), and a few global modelling groups, to push global model resolutions far enough into the convective "grey zone" to consider removing or reducing the impact of such parameterisation. Although the explicit representation of convection at such coarse resolutions may be questionable, it does enable an investigation (in a global modelling context) of how a change in the diurnal cycle of precipitation might feed back on the large-scale mean state. Several multi-year simulations using a global atmospheric model at 12km resolution (based on the Met Office Unified Model with Global Atmosphere GA3.0 configuration) have been completed, using either parameterised convection or an explicit representation of either all or just deep convection in combination with a Smagorinsky-type turbulence scheme. The diurnal cycle of precipitation over tropical land is shown to be greatly improved when no parameterisation of deep convection is used: it is revealed both in the timing and magnitude of precipitation events, with much improved propagation of convective systems over Africa, albeit not over the Great Plains of the US. The impact that the changed diurnal cycle has on aspects of the mean state, such as surface fluxes, soil moisture and surface winds has also been investigated. There are interesting differences in the diurnal cycle of surface winds between the models, with changes to both sea breeze-type circulations as well as to very large-scale wind direction between morning and evening, which are also seen in satellite-derived observations from QuikScat. The former has important implications for the formation of intense thunderstorms and associated

  10. Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slingo, Julia; Bates, Kevin; Nikiforakis, Nikos; Piggott, Matthew; Roberts, Malcolm; Shaffrey, Len; Stevens, Ian; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Weller, Hilary

    2009-03-13

    Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

  11. Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901-2007

    OpenAIRE

    Aslam, O. P. M.; Badruddin

    2014-01-01

    We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun-climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to...

  12. Climate mitigation comparison of woody biomass systems with the inclusion of land-use in the reference fossil system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While issues of land-use have been considered in many direct analyses of biomass systems, little attention has heretofore been paid to land-use in reference fossil systems. Here we address this limitation by comparing forest biomass systems to reference fossil systems with explicit consideration of land-use in both systems. We estimate and compare the time profiles of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) of woody biomass systems and reference fossil systems. A life cycle perspective is used that includes all significant elements of both systems, including GHG emissions along the full material and energy chains. We consider the growth dynamics of forests under different management regimes, as well as energy and material substitution effects of harvested biomass. We determine the annual net emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 for each system over a 240-year period, and then calculate time profiles of CRF as a proxy measurement of climate change impact. The results show greatest potential for climate change mitigation when intensive forest management is applied in the woody biomass system. This methodological framework provides a tool to help determine optimal strategies for managing forests so as to minimize climate change impacts. The inclusion of land-use in the reference system improves the accuracy of quantitative projections of climate benefits of biomass-based systems. - Highlights: • We analyze the dynamics of GHG emissions from woody biomass and fossil systems. • With a life cycle perspective, we account for forest land-use in both systems. • Replacing more carbon intensive fossil fuels gives greater climate benefit. • Increasing the intensity of forest management gives greater climate benefit. • Methodological choices in defining temporal system boundaries are important

  13. The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

  14. Renewable energy and climate policies: Studies in the forest and energy sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kangas, H.-L.

    2012-07-01

    This dissertation examines the impacts of energy and climate policies on the energy and forest sectors, focusing on the case of Finland. The thesis consists of an introduction article and four separate studies. The dissertation was motivated by the climate concern and the increasing demand for renewable energy. In particular, the renewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the European Union were driving this work. In Finland, both forest and energy sectors are in key roles in achieving these targets. In fact, the separation between forest and energy sector is diminishing as the energy sector is utilizing increasing amounts of wood in energy production and as the forest sector is becoming more and more important energy producer. The objective of this dissertation is to find out and measure the impacts of climate and energy policies on the forest and energy sectors. In climate policy, the focus is on emissions trading, and in energy policy the dissertation focuses on the promotion of renewable forestbased energy use. The dissertation relies on empirical numerical models that are based on microeconomic theory. Numerical partial equilibrium mixed complementarity problem models were constructed to study the markets under scrutiny. The separate studies focus on co-firing of wood biomass and fossil fuels, liquid biofuel production in the pulp and paper industry, and the impacts of climate policy on the pulp and paper sector. The dissertation shows that the policies promoting wood-based energy may have unexpected negative impacts. When feed-in tariff is imposed together with emissions trading, in some plants the production of renewable electricity might decrease as the emissions price increases. The dissertation also shows that in liquid biofuel production, investment subsidy may cause high direct policy costs and other negative impacts when compared to other policy instruments. The results of the dissertation also indicate that from the

  15. The farming system sensibility of the Normandy in connection with the Climatic Change (2000-2100)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Gouée, Patrick; Cantat, Olivier; Bensaïd, Abdelkrim; Savouret, Edwige

    2010-05-01

    The French agricultural economy is closely connected with weather-climatic conditions. For example, dryness caused by the heat-wave of 2003 seriously affected the vegetation leading to a significant slowdown of photosynthetic activity. This resulted in logical decrease of agricultural production, in particular for arable lands and fodders. The Global warming that has begun at the end of the 19th century and seems to continue and even intensify during the 21st century (GIEC, 2007) arises a question of farming system sensibility when faced with Climate Change in the future. In France, recent studies (Cloppet and al, 2009) have conducted to the probable climate features spatialization on the national territory according to different scenarios. Whatever the scenario considered, it seems that the present Norman climate type is going to disappear by the end of century to be supplanted by a type of weather influenced by raising evapotranspiration, minimal and maximum temperatures as well as a raising speed of wind and solar radiation. Globally, this could emphasize agriculture soil dryness negative impact on large cereal land and pastures production (Butault, 2009, Ruget & Brisson, 2007). However, this climatic evolution could bring some production gain when the available water content of soils allows preventing or strongly limiting the hydrous stress emergence. For the current period and horizon 2100, according to the scenario A1B of the GIEC, the evaluation and the mapping with fine spatial resolution of this pedo-climatic indicator present a capital stake to appreciate the sensitivity of the agriculture of the Normandy in connection with the climatic evolution announced for the end of the 21st century. This exploratory work has been undertaken for the departmental territory of Calvados (5500 km²). For that purpose, it has been necessary beforehand to work out a precise mapping of soils on the basis of 7514 soil boreholes. The treatment of the soil database has allowed

  16. A Proposal for Mapping Historic Irrigation Channels to Reveal Insights into Agro-Climatic Systems: A Case Study in Upper Austria. GI_Forum 2013 – Creating the GISociety|

    OpenAIRE

    Neuwirth, Christian; Eisank, Clemens; D'Oleire-Oltmanns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the remains of two historic irrigation channels were re-discovered in the Upper Austrian municipality of Regau. Since the current average precipitation in the region is sufficient to sustain a productive agricultural land use, the irrigation channels raise several questions related to climate variability. To verify different hypotheses such as the construction as a response to a changing climate or the assumed purpose of grassland irrigation, potential coherences are discussed. In a...

  17. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable.

  18. Operation of hydropower generation systems in the Alps under future climate and socio-economic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    describes the behavior of hydropower operators. This integrated model allows to quantitatively explore possible trajectories of future evolution of the hydropower systems under the combined effect of climate and socio-economic drivers. In a multi-objective perspective, the model can test how different hydropower operation strategies perform in terms of power production, reliability and flexibility of supply, profitability of operation, and ecosystem conservation. This contribution presents the methodological framework designed to formulate the integrated model, its expected outcomes, and some preliminary results on a pilot study.

  19. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Columbia River Basin Agriculture through Integrated Crop Systems, Hydrologic, and Water Management Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Kruger, C.; Yoder, J.; Marsh, T.

    2011-12-01

    The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest covers parts of US and Canada with a total drainage area of about 670,000 square kilometers. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of Columbia River water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area in the CRB. Agriculture is an important component of the economy in the region, with an annual value over $5 billion in Washington State alone. The availability of surface water for irrigation in the basin is expected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Previous climate change studies in the CRB region suggest a likelihood of increasing temperatures and a shift in precipitation patterns, with precipitation higher in the winter and lower in the summer. Warming further exacerbates summer water availability in many CRB tributaries as they shift from snowmelt-dominant towards rain-dominant hydrologic regimes. The goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on CRB water availability and agricultural production in the expectation that curtailment will occur more frequently in an altered climate. Towards this goal it is essential that we understand the interactions between crop-growth dynamics, climate dynamics, the hydrologic cycle, water management, and agricultural economy. To study these interactions at the regional scale, we use the newly developed crop-hydrology model VIC-CropSyst, which integrates a crop growth model CropSyst with the hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC). Simulation of future climate by VIC-CropSyst captures the socio-economic aspects of this system through economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on crop patterns. This integrated framework (submitted as a separate paper) is linked to a reservoir operations simulations model, Colsim. ColSim is modified to explicitly account for agricultural withdrawals. Washington State water

  20. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, JeanFrancois; Cazenave, Anny; Ablain, Michael; Larnicol, Gilles; Benveniste, Jerome; Johannessen, Johnny; Timms, Gary; Andersen, Ole; Cipollini, Paolo; Roca, Monica; Rudenko, Sergei; Fernandes, Joana; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Quartly, Graham; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Meyssignac, Benoit; Scharffenberg, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. We will firstly present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. At last, new altimeter standards have been developed and the best one have been recently selected in order to produce a full

  1. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA climate change initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, JeanFrancois; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of a first version of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. Within phase II, new altimeter standards have been developed and tested in order to reprocess the dataset with the best standards for climate studies. The reprocessed ECV will be released in summer 2016. We will present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product

  2. Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnett, T; Zwiers, F; Hegerl, G; Allen, M; Crowley, T; Gillett, N; Hasselmann, K; Jones, P; Santer, B; Schnur, R; Stott, P; Taylor, K; Tett, S

    2005-01-26

    We review recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean-heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal climate variability, and they are consistent with the responses to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are simulated with climate models. The evidence indicates that natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible for the large-scale temperature changes observed over the past century, and that a large fraction of the warming over the last 50 years can be attributed to greenhouse gas increases. Thus the recent research supports and strengthens the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that ''most of the global warming over the past 50 years is likely due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases''.

  3. Evaluating Vulnerability and Resilience between Urban and Rural Area in a Regional Water Resources System under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T. M.; Tung, C. P.; Li, M. H.; Tsao, J. H.; Lin, C. Y.

    2014-12-01

    To the threat of climate change, the risk of water resources vary in different area but the same system because of the structure of water supply system and the different sensitivity and exposure to climate for different urbanization area. For example, the urban area with high population density is sensitive to any disturbance from drought and the rural area with unpopular tap water system is insensitive to disturbance of drought but highly risk to water shortage. The resilience of water supply relies on water storage from reservoirs or lakes and water management in urban area but relies on intake from groundwater in rural area. The strategies to water resources should be considered with the water mass flow between urban and rural area. To strengthen the whole water resources system, also, it is important to find where the vulnerability from, how to reduce it and how to build up the resilience for both urban and rural area. This study aims to evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of water resources in different township and city but in the same system. An integrated tool - TaiWAP (Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Program) for climate change vulnerability assessment on water resources is used for climate impact assessment. For the simulation of the complex water supply system, the system dynamics model- VENSIM which is connected with TaiWAP is adopted to simulate a water supply system and evaluate risk of each township and city in a water supply system. The cause of vulnerability will be identified and discussed in both urban and rural. The strategies to reduce vulnerability of water resources for urban and rural will be proposed and discussed in this study.

  4. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  5. Good Practice in Designing and Implementing National Monitoring Systems for Adaptation to Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naswa, Prakriti; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Bouroncle, Claudia;

    In this report, we identify, analyse and compare international good practices in the design and implementation of national monitoring and evaluating indicator systems for climate change adaptation. This first chapter provides an introduction to the context and key terminology in the domain...... of climate change adaptation and indicators for M&E of adaptation. The second chapter discusses the existing approaches to M&E, while Chapter 3 provides a general overview of approaches to M&E Frameworks for Climate Change Adaptation. Chapters 4 and 5 outline and discuss the application and relevance...

  6. Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics....... This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage infrastructure design and management....

  7. Portable treatment systems study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherick, M.J.; Schwinkendorf, W.E.; Bechtold, T.E.; Cole, L.T.

    1997-03-01

    In developing their Site Treatment Plans (STPs), many of the Department of Energy installations identified some form of portable treatment, to facilitate compliant disposition of select mixed low-level wastestreams. The Environmental Management Office of Science and Technology requested that a systems study be performed to better define the potential role of portable treatment with respect to mixed low-level waste, highlight obstacles to implementation, and identify opportunities for future research and development emphasis. The study was performed by first establishing a representative set of mixed waste, then formulating portable treatment system concepts to meet the required processing needs for these wastes. The portable systems that were conceptualized were evaluated and compared to a fixed centralized treatment alternative. The system evaluations include a life-cycle cost analysis and an assessment of regulatory, institutional, and technical issues associated with the potential use of portable systems. The results of this study show that when all costs are included, there are no significant cost differences between portable systems and fixed systems. However, it is also emphasized that many uncertainties exist that could impact the cost of implementing portable treatment systems. Portable treatment could be made more attractive through private sector implementation, although there is little economic incentive for a commercial vendor to develop small, specialized treatment capabilities with limited applicability. Alternatively, there may also be valid reasons why fixed units cannot be used for some problematic wastestreams. In any event, there are some site-specific problems that still need to be addressed, and there may be some opportunity for research and development to make a positive impact in these areas.

  8. Portable treatment systems study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In developing their Site Treatment Plans (STPs), many of the Department of Energy installations identified some form of portable treatment, to facilitate compliant disposition of select mixed low-level wastestreams. The Environmental Management Office of Science and Technology requested that a systems study be performed to better define the potential role of portable treatment with respect to mixed low-level waste, highlight obstacles to implementation, and identify opportunities for future research and development emphasis. The study was performed by first establishing a representative set of mixed waste, then formulating portable treatment system concepts to meet the required processing needs for these wastes. The portable systems that were conceptualized were evaluated and compared to a fixed centralized treatment alternative. The system evaluations include a life-cycle cost analysis and an assessment of regulatory, institutional, and technical issues associated with the potential use of portable systems. The results of this study show that when all costs are included, there are no significant cost differences between portable systems and fixed systems. However, it is also emphasized that many uncertainties exist that could impact the cost of implementing portable treatment systems. Portable treatment could be made more attractive through private sector implementation, although there is little economic incentive for a commercial vendor to develop small, specialized treatment capabilities with limited applicability. Alternatively, there may also be valid reasons why fixed units cannot be used for some problematic wastestreams. In any event, there are some site-specific problems that still need to be addressed, and there may be some opportunity for research and development to make a positive impact in these areas

  9. Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901-2007

    CERN Document Server

    Aslam, O P M

    2014-01-01

    We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun-climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.

  10. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  11. A Power Efficient Exaflop Computer Design for Global Cloud System Resolving Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Oliker, L.; Shalf, J.

    2008-12-01

    Exascale computers would allow routine ensemble modeling of the global climate system at the cloud system resolving scale. Power and cost requirements of traditional architecture systems are likely to delay such capability for many years. We present an alternative route to the exascale using embedded processor technology to design a system optimized for ultra high resolution climate modeling. These power efficient processors, used in consumer electronic devices such as mobile phones, portable music players, cameras, etc., can be tailored to the specific needs of scientific computing. We project that a system capable of integrating a kilometer scale climate model a thousand times faster than real time could be designed and built in a five year time scale for US$75M with a power consumption of 3MW. This is cheaper, more power efficient and sooner than any other existing technology.

  12. Reconciling Scale Mismatch in Water Governance, Hydro-climatic Processes and Infrastructure Systems of Water Supply in Las Vegas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M. E.; Alarcon, T.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water resource systems are a classic example of a common pool resource due to the high cost of exclusion and the subtractability of the resource; for common pool resources, the performance of governance systems primarily depends on how well matched the institutional arrangements and rules are to the biophysical conditions and social norms. Changes in water governance, hydro-climatic processes and infrastructure systems occur on disparate temporal and spatial scales. A key challenge is the gap between current climate change model resolution, and the spatial and temporal scale of urban water supply decisions. This gap will lead to inappropriate management policies if not mediated through a carefully crafted decision making process. Traditional decision support and planning methods (DSPM) such as classical decision analysis are not equipped to deal with a non-static climate. While emerging methods such as decision scaling, robust decision making and real options are designed to deal with a changing climate, governance systems have evolved under the assumption of a static climate and it is not clear if these methods are well suited to the existing governance regime. In our study, these questions are contextualized by examining an urban water utility that has made significant changes in policy to adapt to changing conditions: the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) which serves metropolitan Las Vegas. Like most desert cities, Las Vegas exists because of water; the artesian springs of the Las Vegas Valley once provided an ample water supply for Native Americans, ranchers and later a small railroad city. However, population growth has increased demands far beyond local supplies. The area now depends on the Colorado River for the majority of its water supply. Natural climate variability with periodic droughts has further challenged water providers; projected climate changes and further population growth will exacerbate these challenges. Las Vegas is selected as a case

  13. Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhik, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Salunke, Kiran D.; Dhakate, Ashish R.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

    2016-05-01

    The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere-ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further

  14. Diminished Wastewater Treatment: Evaluation of Septic System Performance Under a Climate Change Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Boving, T. B.; Morales, I.; Amador, J.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change are expected to reduce the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), to treat domestic wastewater. In the northeastern U.S., the projected increase in atmospheric temperature, elevation of water tables from rising sea levels, and heightened precipitation will reduce the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment. Incomplete removal of contaminants may lead to transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) to groundwater, increasing the risk to public health and likelihood of eutrophying aquatic ecosystems. Advanced OWTS, which include pre-treatment steps and provide unsaturated drainfields of greater volume relative to conventional OWTS, are expected to be more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify water quality functions for two advanced shallow narrow drainfield types and a conventional drainfield under a current climate scenario and a moderate climate change scenario of 30 cm rise in water table and 5°C increase in soil temperature. While no fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) was released under the current climate scenario, up to 109 CFU FCB/mL (conventional) and up to 20 CFU FCB/mL (shallow narrow) were released under the climate change scenario. Total P removal rates dropped from 100% to 54% (conventional) and 71% (shallow narrow) under the climate change scenario. Total N removal averaged 17% under both climate scenarios in the conventional, but dropped from 5.4% to 0% in the shallow narrow under the climate change scenario, with additional leaching of N in excess of inputs indicating release of previously held N. No significant difference was observed between scenarios for BOD removal. The initial data indicate that while advanced OWTS retain more function under the climate change scenario, all three drainfield types experience some diminished treatment capacity.

  15. Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jørgen E; Trnka, M; Kersebaum, K C;

    2011-01-01

    of climate and climate change on agriculture in Europe was distributed to agro-climatic and agronomy experts in 26 countries. Europe was divided into 13 Environmental Zones (EZ). In total, we had 50 individual responses for specific EZ. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information...... in the questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of negative expectations concerning the impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate northern European countries. The expected impacts, both positive and negative, are just as large in northern Europe......The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe show consistent projections of increases in temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and decreases over parts of southern and eastern Europe. In many...

  16. Perceptions and understanding of climate change in Sri Lanka : a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patabendi, P. [Team for Disaster Prevention and Sustainable Development, Kaduwela (Sri Lanka)

    2000-06-01

    A citizen's organization in Sri Lanka is conducting a study on current perceptions and attitudes of climate change in a small village in southern Sri Lanka just 100 km north of the capital city of Colombo. The