WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate surface hydrology

  1. Climate change and California surface hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Schwartz, Marla Ann

    2016-01-01

    Understanding 21st century changes in California surface hydrology is critical to ensuring enough freshwater resources for the state’s municipal, ecological and agricultural purposes and assessing future ecosystem health and wildfire risk. To project 21st century surface hydrology over California – a region with highly complex topography that is not well captured by global climate models (GCMs) – downscaling is necessary. This work projects future changes in surface hydrology over the Los Ang...

  2. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and...... the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model...

  3. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-04-01

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  4. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  5. What will be the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology in France by 2070?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the Explore 2070 project, an evaluation of the possible impacts of climate change on surface water between the 1961-1990 reference period and the 2046-2065 period was carried out in continental France and i n overseas departments on the basis of the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario, seven general circulation models an d two hydrological models (Isba-Modcou and GR4J). In continental France, results indicate: (1) a possible increase in ai r temperature between +1.4 deg. C and +3 deg. C; (2) an uncertain evolution of precipitation, most models however agreeing on a decreasing trend in summer precipitation; (3) a significant decrease (10% to 40%) of mean annual flows at the country scale, especially pronounced in the Seine-Normandie and Adour-Garonne districts; (4) a strong decrease in summer lo w flows in most basins; (5) more heterogeneous and less significant evolutions for floods. A special care was given to the quantification of the uncertainties linked to these results. They provide an indication of the significance of projected changes. The evolutions calculated in the overseas zones can be considered non-significant given the level of uncertainty linked to the hydro-climatic modelling chain. These results urge to implement adaptation strategies based on a better management of water resources, among others. (authors)

  6. Eco-hydrological feedbacks between surface sealing and woody vegetation in dry climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sela, S.; Svoray, T.; Assouline, S.

    2013-12-01

    Physical sealing of the soil is a widespread natural process in the bare soil patches between shrubs, occurring frequently in dry environments. The seal layer has significantly lower hydraulic conductivity than the underlying undisturbed soil and thus, it affects significantly hydrological fluxes. Recent studies highlighted the significant role of the seal layer in controlling woody vegetation water availability through the allocation of overland flow. The seal layer however, induces another feedback by suppressing evaporation fluxes from the soil. This feedback is usually disregarded but it could have a broad impact on vegetation root water uptake (RWU). Up to date, no attempt has been made to quantify how the modulation of soil water content by the presence of a seal layer affects woody vegetation RWU. We approach this research gap using a model-based analysis of long term local climatic records (36y). The study site is a hillslope (0.075 KM2), located at the LTER Lehavim site in the Negev desert at the south of Israel (31020' N, 34045' E). Annual rainfall is 290 mm and the soils are brown lithosols and arid brown loess, prone to surface sealing. The vegetation is characterized by the dwarf shrub ( Sarcopoterium spinosum). The Feddes RWU parameters of the shrubs were acquired using a high resolution lysimeter experiment, enabling the simulation of vegetation RWU using The Hydrus2D model accounting explicitly for topographic and soil hydraulic parameters. Hydraulic properties of the seal layer at the soil surface were modeled following Mualem and Assouline (1989). The results indicate that the seal layer has a strong positive effect on vegetation RWU, with higher RWU in shrubs surrounded a sealed soil layer. This effect was found to be augmented during dry rainfall seasons, and is tightly coupled with within-season climatic variability (e.g. the timing and intensity of rainfall events). Assuming dry land vegetation go into a period of 'stress' when the soil

  7. Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

    2012-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

  8. Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

  9. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  10. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO2. Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  11. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  12. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  13. Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

  14. Mississippi Climate & Hydrology Conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawford, R.; Huang, J.

    2002-05-01

    The GEWEX Continental International Project (GCIP), which started in 1995 and completed in 2001, held its grand finale conference in New Orleans, LA in May 2002. Participants at this conference along with the scientists funded through the GCIP program are invited to contribute a paper to a special issue of Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR). This special JGR issue (called GCIP3) will serve as the final report on scientific research conducted by GCIP investigators. Papers are solicited on the following topical areas, but are not limited to, (1) water energy budget studies; (2) warm season precipitation; (3) predictability and prediction system; (4) coupled land-atmosphere models; (5) climate and water resources applications. The research areas cover observations, modeling, process studies and water resources applications.

  15. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Juston, John [DBE Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-06-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is conducting site investigations at two different locations, the Forsmark and Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The results from the investigations at the sites are used as a basic input to the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDM). The SDM shall summarise the current state of knowledge of the site, and provide parameters and models to be used in further analyses within Safety Assessment, Repository Design and Environmental Impact Assessment. The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 'data freeze' (July 31, 2004). The groundwater is very shallow, with groundwater levels within one meter below ground as an annual mean for almost all groundwater monitoring wells. Also, the annual groundwater level amplitude is less than 1.5 m for most wells. The shallow groundwater levels mean that there is a strong interaction between evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater. In the modelling, surface water and near-surface groundwater divides are assumed to coincide. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The observed differences in levels are not fully consistent with the good hydraulic contact between overburden and bedrock indicated by the hydraulic tests in the Quaternary deposits. However, the relatively lower groundwater levels in the bedrock may be caused by the horizontal to sub-horizontal highly

  16. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 ''data freeze'' (July 31, 2004). The area covered in the conceptual and descriptive modelling is characterised by a low relief and a small-scale topography. Almost the whole area is located below 20 m a s l (metres above sea level). The corrected mean annual precipitation is 600-650 mm and the mean annual evapotranspiration can be estimated to a little more than 400 mm, leaving approximately 200 mm x year-1 for runoff. Till is the dominating Quaternary deposit covering approximately 75% of the area. In most of the area, the till is sandy. Bedrock outcrops are frequent but cover only approximately 5% of the area. Direct groundwater recharge from precipitation is the dominant source of groundwater recharge. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The sediment stratigraphy of lakes and wetlands is crucial for their function as discharge areas for groundwater. Comparisons between measured lake water levels and groundwater levels below and around lakes indicate that the lakes in some cases may act as sources of groundwater recharge. Specifically, observations from Lake Bolundsfjaerden and Lake Eckarfjaerden show that such conditions were at hand during the dry summer of 2003. However, whether the observed water level relations correspond to significant water fluxes depends also on the hydrogeological properties of the lake sediments and the underlying Quaternary deposits. ''Old'' water with high

  17. Traits of surface water pollution under climate and land use changes: A remote sensing and hydrological modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Yuyan C.; Ghulam, Abduwasit; Hartling, Sean

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, spatial and temporal trajectories of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) derived from Landsat data record are combined with hydrological modeling to explore the implication of vegetation dynamics on soil erosion and total suspended sediment (TSS) loading to surface rivers. The inter-annual coefficient of variation (CoV) of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to screen the LCLUC and climate change. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is employed to identify the monthly TSS for two times interval (1991 to 2001 and 2001 to 2011) at subbasin levels. SWAT model is calibrated from 1991 to 2001 and validated from 2002 to 2011 at three USGS gauging sites located in the study area. The Spearman's rank correlation of annual mean TSS is used to assess the temporal trends of TSS dynamics in the subbasins in the two study periods. The spatial correlation among NDVI, LCLUC, climate change and TSS loading rate changes is quantified by using linear regression model and negative/positive trend analysis. Our results showed that higher rainfall yields contribute to higher TSS loading into surface waters. A higher inter-annual accumulated vegetation index and lower inter-annual CoV distributed over the uplands resulted in a lower TSS loading rate, while a relatively low vegetation index with larger CoV observed over lowlands resulted in a higher TSS loading rate. The TSS loading rate at the basin outlet increased with the decrease of annual NDVI due to expanding urban areas in the watershed. The results also suggested nonlinearity between the trends of TSS loading with any of a specific land cover change because of the fact that the contribution of a factor can be influenced by the effects of other factors. However, dominant factors that shape the relationship between the trend of TSS loading and specific land cover changes were detected. The change of forest showed a negative relationship while agriculture and pasture demonstrated positive

  18. California Basin Characterization Model Downscaled Climate and Hydrology

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The California Basin Characterization Model (CA-BCM 2014) dataset provides historical and projected climate and hydrologic surfaces for the region that encompasses...

  19. Climate Change And Hydrologic Instability In Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Funk, C. C.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.

    2015-12-01

    Yemen is one of the most food insecure nations in the world. Its agriculture is strongly dependent on soil moisture that is heavily influenced by surface temperature and annual precipitation. We examine observations of rainfall and surface temperature and find that the rainfall, which exhibits strong interannual variability, has seen a moderate downward trend over the last 35 years while surface temperature has seen a very significant rise over the same period. Yemen has high vulnerability and low resilience to these climate changes stemming from many geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. The threshold of resilience has been crossed as Yemen is embroiled in chaos and conflict. We examine the relationship between climate change and agricultural and water insecurity using observed data and the Noah land surface model. We further used atmospheric reanalyses to explore the atmospheric teleconnections that affect the anomalous regional circulation. According to these investigations the robust surface temperature increase over recent decades, expected to continue under climate change, has strongly depleted the soil moisture. This drying of the soil exacerbated the acute hydrologic insecurity in Yemen, stemming predominantly from unsustainable groundwater use, and was likely a contributing factor to the ongoing conflict. We show that during naturally occurring dry years and under climate change this region experiences anomalous dry air advection from the northeast and that these regional circulation changes appear to be linked to tropical sea-surface temperature forcing and to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation. These results are an important example of the emerging influence of climate change in hydrologically insecure regions.

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Hydrology in the Source Region of the Yellow River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, F.; Zhang, L.; Berndtsson, R.

    2015-12-01

    The source region of the Yellow River contributes about 35% of the total water yield in the Yellow River basin playing an important role for meeting the downstream water resources requirements. Hydroclimatic trend and periodicity during the last 50 years were investigated to identify significant changes in time and space over the study area. Results showed that mean annual temperature increased for all stations and it had an accelerated increasing trend during the last decade. Mean annual precipitation trends varied depending on station location; however, they were generally slightly decreasing. Annual streamflow decreased markedly especially from the 1990s but showed recovery during recent years. Statistically significant changes in trend occurred for temperature in 1998 and for streamflow in 1990. Based on the streamflow change point, seasonal analysis results showed that precipitation mainly decreased during the summer monsoon period (July-September) and temperature increased throughout the year. Corresponding to the weakened monsoon period the average runoff depth is decreasing by 0.74 mm/year over the whole area. Statistically significant 2 to 4-year periodicities for mean areal precipitation and temperature occurred over the area. For streamflow, an even stronger 8-year periodicity was revealed from the end of the 60s to the beginning of the 90s. Summer precipitation trends and teleconnections with global sea surface temperature (SST) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1961 to 2010 were investigated. The summer precipitation in the whole region shows statistically significant negative correlations with the central Pacific SST for 0-4 month lags and with the southern Indian and Atlantic Ocean SST for 5-8 month lags. Analyses of sub-regions reveal intricate and complex correlations with different SST areas that further explain the summer precipitation variability. The SOI had significant positive correlations mainly for 0-2 month lag with summer

  1. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and...

  2. A Physically Based Surface/ Subsurface Flow Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change Extremes on the Hydrology of an Upper Midwest U.S. Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acar, O.; Franz, K.; Simpkins, W. W.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is already affecting the Midwest U.S. Occurrence and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods are expected to increase in the next few decades. It is the climate extremes, not averages, that have the greater impact on crop and livestock productivity which are vital for the State's economy. Accordingly, potential changes in the hydrologic cycle under prospective climate conditions need to be addressed at the watershed scale for the Midwestern agricultural region to develop better management and adaptation solutions. For this purpose, the 3-D finite element model, HydroGeoSphere has been applied to and calibrated for a representative watershed in north-central Iowa, Tipton Creek watershed. The conceptual model for the watershed consists of all the elements of the hydrologic cycle from the ground surface through the Quaternary aquitard and into the underlying Mississippian limestone aquifer. Extreme wet and dry conditions derived from statistically downscaled climate model scenarios have been used as input to the basin model to simulate the impacts on streamflow and groundwater flow. The model accomplishes integrated hydrologic analysis by the coupled solution of the diffusion wave equation governing 2-D (areal) surface water flow and the Richards' equation governing 3-D unsaturated/ saturated subsurface flow. Thus, actual evapotranspiration is calculated internally as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative zone at each time step and interdependent processes like recharge that are critical for climate change can be handled more accurately. Preliminary results for HadCM3 scenario combined with two SRES projections, A2 and A1fi predict more remarkable increases in stream levels in response to wet periods than the decreases in flows for dry periods in comparison to control (contemporary) period simulations. The impacts on the water table levels seem to be more prominent, in the range of ±4 m for

  3. Hydrological Response to Climate Change over the Blue Nile Basin Distributed hydrological modeling based on surrogate climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berhane, F. G.; Anyah, R. O.

    2010-12-01

    The program Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2009) model has been applied to the Blue Nile Basin to study the hydrological response to surrogate climate changes over the Blue Nile Basin (Ethiopia) by downscaling gridded weather data. The specific objectives of the study include (i) examining the performance of the SWAT model in simulating hydrology-climate interactions and feedbacks within the entire Blue Nile Basin, and (ii) investigating the response of hydrological variables to surrogate climate changes. Monthly weather data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) are converted to daily values as input into the SWAT using Monthly to Daily Weather Converter (MODAWEC). Using the program SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm), data from 1979 to 1983 are applied for sensitivity analysis and calibration (P-factor = 90%, R-factor =0.7, R2 =0.93 and NS=0.93) and subsequently to validate hindcasts over the period 1984-1989 (R2 =0.92 and NS=0.92). The period from 1960-2000 was used as baseline and has been used to determine the changes and the effect of the surrogate climate changes over the Blue Nile Basin. Overall, our surrogate climate change based simulations indicate the hydrology of the Blue Nile catchment is very sensitive to potential climate change with 100%, 34% and 51% increase to the surface runoff, lateral flow and water yield respectively for the A2 scenario surrogate. Key Words: SWAT, MODAWEC, Blue Nile Basin, SUFI-2, climate change, hydrological modeling, CRU

  4. Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydrological Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dam, Jan C.

    2003-10-01

    Water is going to be one of the key, if not the most critical, environmental issues in the twenty-first century because of the escalation in socio-economic pressures on the environment in general. Any future climate change or climate variability will only accentuate such pressures. This volume initially follows the perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to infer possible changes in hydrological regimes and water quality based on the outputs from various scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs). In subsequent chapters, the possible effects of climate change on the hydrology of each of the continents is examined. The book concludes with an overview of hydrological models for use in the evaluation of the impacts of climate change. It will provide a valuable guide for environmental planners and policy-makers, and will also be of use to all students and researchers interested in the possible effects of climate change.

  5. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Lerer, Sara Maria; Overgaard, J.; Grooss, J.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Christensen, J.H.; Refsgaard, J. C.

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated with...... coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  6. Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J., Jr.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

    2000-01-01

    Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

  7. The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mougin, E.; Hiernaux, P.; Kergoat, L.; Grippa, M.; de Rosnay, P.; Timouk, F.; Le Dantec, V.; Demarez, V.; Lavenu, F.; Arjounin, M.; Lebel, T.; Soumaguel, N.; Ceschia, E.; Mougenot, B.; Baup, F.; Frappart, F.; Frison, P. L.; Gardelle, J.; Gruhier, C.; Jarlan, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Sanou, B.; Tracol, Y.; Guichard, F.; Trichon, V.; Diarra, L.; Soumaré, A.; Koité, M.; Dembélé, F.; Lloyd, C.; Hanan, N. P.; Damesin, C.; Delon, C.; Serça, D.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Seghieri, J.; Becerra, S.; Dia, H.; Gangneron, F.; Mazzega, P.

    2009-08-01

    SummaryThe Gourma site in Mali is one of the three instrumented meso-scale sites deployed in West-Africa as part of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Located both in the Sahelian zone sensu stricto, and in the Saharo-Sahelian transition zone, the Gourma meso-scale window is the northernmost site of the AMMA-CATCH observatory reached by the West African Monsoon. The experimental strategy includes deployment of a variety of instruments, from local to meso-scale, dedicated to monitoring and documentation of the major variables characterizing the climate forcing, and the spatio-temporal variability of surface processes and state variables such as vegetation mass, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture and surface fluxes. This paper describes the Gourma site, its associated instrumental network and the research activities that have been carried out since 1984. In the AMMA project, emphasis is put on the relations between climate, vegetation and surface fluxes. However, the Gourma site is also important for development and validation of satellite products, mainly due to the existence of large and relatively homogeneous surfaces. The social dimension of the water resource uses and governance is also briefly analyzed, relying on field enquiry and interviews. The climate of the Gourma region is semi-arid, daytime air temperatures are always high and annual rainfall amounts exhibit strong inter-annual and seasonal variations. Measurements sites organized along a north-south transect reveal sharp gradients in surface albedo, net radiation, vegetation production, and distribution of plant functional types. However, at any point along the gradient, surface energy budget, soil moisture and vegetation growth contrast between two main types of soil surfaces and hydrologic systems. On the one hand, sandy soils with high water infiltration rates and limited run-off support almost continuous herbaceous vegetation with scattered woody plants. On the other

  8. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  9. Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders

    OpenAIRE

    Boukhris, O.

    2008-01-01

    This PhD thesis presents the development of a methodology that analyzes potential climate change impacts on hydrological extremes along rivers in Flanders (Belgium).The main objective of this study is to show whether hydrological modelling techniques driven by climate modelling techniques and climate change scenarios enable a prediction of the long-term evolution of the hydrological system of the studied area.The climate change impact analysis is based on a continuous simulation approach: The...

  10. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  11. Deciphering the history of hydrologic and climatic changes on carbonate lowstand surfaces: calcrete and organic-matter/evaporite facies association on a palimpsest Middle Jurassic landscape from Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azerêdo, Ana C.; Paul Wright, V.; Mendonça-Filho, João; Cristina Cabral, M.; Duarte, Luís V.

    2015-06-01

    The unusual occurrence of calcretes and prominent organic matter in the Middle Jurassic (Lower Bathonian, Serra de Aire Formation) of the Lusitanian Basin of western Portugal (Western Iberian Margin) revealed a complex palimpsest exposure record, here interpreted as reflecting hydrological changes caused by phases of emergence and immersion. It serves as a potential model for understanding stratigraphic development at lowstand surfaces in carbonate successions. The exposure-dominated facies association grades upwards into peritidal and lagoonal limestones, and the interval is assigned to the regressive peak of a Transgressive-Regressive Facies Cycle (2nd order) of the thick Middle Jurassic carbonate ramp succession. The Galinha Quarry, Fátima region, NE of Lisbon, a type section for this lowstand assemblage, exhibits varied calcretes, with black-clasts, interbedded with, and grading into: organic-rich marly/clayey seams and lenses, locally with carbonate nodules; carbonates with evaporite traces; microbial laminites; black-clast and fenestral limestones; some lithofacies are dolomitized. The palynofacies contains phytoclasts associated with less refractory, more prone to degradation components, which suggests natural combustion/pyrolysis (wild fires). The lowstand surface represents a low relief landscape with small depressions/ponds bordering a more distal marginal-littoral setting; the partly subaerial and partly subaqueous settings were subjected to lengthy exposure and to fluctuating, very shallow water bodies and water table. Coeval climatic regime was a seasonally dry/wet one, with dry/semi-arid phases dominating over the sub-humid, as shown by the combined record of intense calcrete development, rhizogenic structures, microbial mats, brecciation, desiccation, evaporites and wild fire evidence. However, sea level rise caused changes to shallow, sea-water influenced restricted lagoonal-peritidal settings. Comparisons and differences with modern and ancient

  12. Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.

    1992-01-01

    The predictions of climate change studies depend crucially on the hydrological cycles embedded in the different models used. It is shown here that uncertainties in hydrological processes and inconsistencies in both climate and impact models limit confidence in current assessments of climate change. A future course of action to remedy this problem is suggested.

  13. HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH

  14. Climate-driven hydrologic transients in Holocene lake records

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Alison J; Donovan, Joseph J.; Engstrom, Daniel R.; Ito, Emi; Panek, Valerie; Gong, Eric

    1996-01-01

    Understanding the link between climate and regional hydrologic processes is of primary importance in estimating the possible impact of future climate change and in the validation of climate models that attempt to simulate such changes. Two distinct problems need to be addressed: quantitatively establishing the link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, and determining how these changes are expressed over differing temporal and spatial scales. To solve these problems, our interd...

  15. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    OpenAIRE

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; S. Folwell; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; J. Heinke; F. Ludwig

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climat...

  16. Impact of the use of a CO2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins

    OpenAIRE

    S. Queguiner; Martin, E.; LAFONT,S; Calvet, J.-C.; Faroux, S.; P. Quintana-Seguí

    2011-01-01

    In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs) is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared f...

  17. The hydrological cycle and its influence on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, Moustafa T.

    1992-01-01

    The current theoretical and observational understanding of the roles of the hydrological cycle in the climate system and its intimate connection to the energy cycle is evaluated. An attempt is made to show why the hydrological cycle has emerged as the central element in studies of climate change and to anticipate the main advances expected in modeling and observations in the coming decade.

  18. Hydrological Response of Alpine Wetlands to Climate Warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

    OpenAIRE

    Wenjiang Zhang; Yonghong Yi; Kechao Song; Kimball, John S.; Qifeng Lu

    2016-01-01

    Alpine wetlands in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) play a crucial role in the regional hydrological cycle due to their strong influence on surface ecohydrological processes; therefore, understanding how TP wetlands respond to climate change is essential for projecting their future condition and potential vulnerability. We investigated the hydrological responses of a large TP wetland complex to recent climate change, by combining multiple satellite observations and in-situ hydro-meteorological record...

  19. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  20. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    OpenAIRE

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, C.; Clark, D.B.; S. Folwell; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; J. Heinke; F. Ludwig; Voß, F.; A. J. Wiltshire

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–...

  1. Impact of the use of a CO2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Quintana-Seguí

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared for the present climate and for that at the end of the century. Reasonable agreement is found between models and with discharge observations. However, ISBA-A-gs has a lower mean evapotranspiration and a higher discharge than ISBA-Standard. Results for the impact of climate change are coherent on a yearly basis for evapotranspiration, total runoff, and discharge. However, the two versions of ISBA present contrasting seasonal variations. ISBA-A-gs develops a different vegetation cycle. The growth of the vegetation begins earlier and reaches a slightly lower maximum than in the present climate. This maximum is followed by a rapid decrease in summertime. In consequence, the springtime evapotranspiration is significantly increased when compared to ISBA-Standard, while the autumn evapotranspiration is lower. On average, discharge changes are more significant at the regional scale with ISBA-A-gs.

  2. Mid-21st Century Changes to Surface Hydrology Over the Los Angeles Region

    OpenAIRE

    Schwartz, Marla Ann

    2013-01-01

    This thesis explores projected mid-21st century changes to surface hydrological fluxes and states in the Los Angeles region at 2km resolution. This work quantifies and describes potential impacts of climate change to precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil column moisture content in the Los Angeles region. Little previous research has focused on the impacts of climate change to water resources and surface hydrology in this region. We simulate detailed climatologies of surface hydro...

  3. Hydrological drought types in cold climates

    OpenAIRE

    Loon, van, R.R.; S. W. Ploum; Parajka, J.; A. K. Fleig; Garnier, E.; Laaha, G.; Lanen, van, H.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    For drought management and prediction, knowledge of causing factors and socio-economic impacts of hydrological droughts is crucial. Propagation of meteorological conditions in the hydrological cycle results in different hydrological drought types that require separate analysis. In addition to the existing hydrological drought typology, we here define two new drought types related to snow and ice. A snowmelt drought is a deficiency in the snowmelt discharge peak in spring in snow-influenced ba...

  4. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  5. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  6. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, L. P.; Lauri, H.; Kummu, M.; Koponen, J.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Supit, I.; Leemans, R.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.

    2015-11-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the most recent CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high flow and low flow conditions). Similar to earlier CMIP3-based assessments, the hydrological cycle also intensifies in the CMIP5 climate change scenarios. The scenarios ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. We further found that extremely high flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risk in the basin. The implications of climate change induced hydrological changes are critical and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and disaster-risk reduction.

  7. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  8. Climate impacts on the hydrology of prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study was carried out in the St. Denis National Wildlife Area, 45 km east of Saskatoon, to observe the hydrological processes and the temporal and spatial variability of slough responses to climate. One slough was instrumented for detailed study, showing that the high water level in spring was supported by snowmelt. In summer, rainfall was the major source of water supply, but was exceeded by losses to evaporation and groundwater recharge, leading to a decline of the water table and complete drying by June 13th. The duration that water remains in sloughs varies temporally and spatially. Ephemeral sloughs, deriving water mainly from snowmelt, tend to occupy higher ground, temporary sloughs rely on precipitation and surface runoff, and may receive groundwater discharge during wetter years. Permanent sloughs often occupy lower areas, receiving water from precipitation, lateral runoff, and groundwater discharge which buffers them from year to year fluctuations in precipitation. Tree ring analyses showed that meltwater is the major factor influencing tree growth, correlating the spatial variability of slough inundation to the temporal variability of winter snowfall. A study of slough hydrology is important to the understanding of the responses of Prairie wetlands to climatic variability and change. 17 refs., 2 figs

  9. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B.; Refsgaard, Jens C.

    2016-03-01

    The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

  10. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

    2016-01-01

    The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies. PMID:26960564

  11. Predictive Understanding of Seasonal Hydrological Dynamics under Climate and Land Use-Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Kumar, P.; Cai, X.; Fraiture, C. D.

    2008-12-01

    Water has always been and will continue to be an important factor in agricultural production and any alteration in the seasonal distribution of water availability due to climate and land use-land cover change (LULCC) will significantly impact the future production. To achieve the ecologic, economic and social objectives of sustainability, physical understanding of the linkages between climatic changes, LULCC and hydrological response is required. Aided by satellite data, modeling and understanding of the interactions between physical processes of the climate system and society, more reliable regional LULCC and climate change projections are now available. However, resulting quantitative projection of changes on the regional scale hydrological components at the seasonal time scale are sparse. This study attempts to quantify the seasonal hydrological response due to projected LULCC and climate change scenario of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in different hydro-climatic regions of the world. The Common Land Model (CLM) is used for global assessment of future hydrologic response with the development of a consistent global GIS based database for the surface boundary conditions and meteorological forcing of the model. Future climate change projections are derived from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Working Group I - The Physical Science Basis. The study is performed over nine river basins selected from Asia, Africa and North America to present the broad climatic and landscape controls on the seasonal hydrological dynamics. Future changes in water availability are quite evident from our results based upon changes in the volume and seasonality of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration. Severe water scarcity is projected to occur in certain seasons which may not be known through annual estimates. Knowledge of the projected seasonal hydrological response can be effectively used for developing adaptive management strategies for the sustainability

  12. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  13. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches...... difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail, and the...

  14. Relative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles

    2010-09-01

    The recent evolution of continental runoff is still an open question. A related and controversial question is the attribution of this change and its consequences on our predictions of the behavior of future runoff. Here, the Land Surface Model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems is used to perform a set of transient simulations of the runoff from 1900 to 2100. We first show that the model's simulated runoff increases for the 20th century from a global point of view as well as its geographical pattern changes are close to the observations made in this paper. Moreover this trend is simulated to increase further during the 21st century under the SRES A2 scenario. We have designed a set of simulations to test the impact on global runoff evolution of three factors: climate, stomatal conductance, and vegetation growth, all sensitive to CO2 increase. A complete factor-separation analysis of the influence of these three factors and of their interactions shows that climate change largely drives the 20th and 21st century runoff increase. The other two factors (stomatal conductance and vegetation growth) play a minor role in the 20th century runoff trend but we show that these contributions increase for the 21st century simulations. Although the interactions between the factors also plays a negligible role in the 20th century global runoff increase, our results show that they become significant during the 21st century, usually reducing the direct effect of each factor. However, our study does not reveal any important negative feedback to counteract the effect of climate warming on the hydrological cycle.

  15. Bayesian parameter uncertainty modeling in a macroscale hydrologic model and its impact on Indian river basin hydrology under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raje, D.; Krishnan, R.

    2012-08-01

    Macroscale hydrologic models (MHMs) were developed to study changes in land surface hydrology due to changing climate over large domains, such as continents or large river basins. However, there are many sources of uncertainty introduced in MHM hydrological simulation, such as model structure error, ineffective model parameters, and low-accuracy model input or validation data. It is hence important to model the uncertainty arising in projection results from an MHM. The objective of this study is to present a Bayesian statistical inference framework for parameter uncertainty modeling of a macroscale hydrologic model. The Bayesian approach implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is used in this study to model uncertainty arising from calibration parameters of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) MHM. The study examines large-scale hydrologic impacts for Indian river basins and changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics, under climate change. Observed/reanalysis meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature and wind speed are used to drive the VIC macroscale hydrologic model. An objective function describing the fit between observed and simulated discharges at four stations is used to compute the likelihood of the parameters. An MCMC approach using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to update probability distributions of the parameters. For future hydrologic simulations, bias-corrected GCM projections of climatic variables are used. The posterior distributions of VIC parameters are used for projection of 5th and 95th percentile discharge statistics at four stations, namely, Farakka, Jamtara, Garudeshwar, and Vijayawada for an ensemble of three GCMs and three scenarios, for two time slices. Spatial differences in uncertainty projections of runoff and evapotranspiration for years 2056-2065 for the a1b scenario at the 5th and 95th percentile levels are also projected

  16. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V

    2016-01-15

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  17. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    OpenAIRE

    R. S. Crosbie; D. W. Pollock; F. S. Mpelasoka; Barron, O. V.; S. P. Charles; M. J. Donn

    2012-01-01

    The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate relative ...

  18. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    OpenAIRE

    R. S. Crosbie; D. W. Pollock; F. S. Mpelasoka; Barron, O. V.; S. P. Charles; M. J. Donn

    2012-01-01

    The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050 climate re...

  19. Embedding complex hydrology in the regional climate system – Dynamic coupling across different modelling domains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, Michael; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl;

    2014-01-01

    impacts are assessed at the catchment scale, the most important scale for water management. Feedback between groundwater, the land surface and the atmosphere occurs across a range of scales. Recognising this, the coupling was developed to allow dynamic exchange of water and energy at the catchment scale......To improve our understanding of the impacts of feedback between the atmosphere and the terrestrial water cycle including groundwater and to improve the integration of water resource management modelling for climate adaption we have developed a dynamically coupled climate–hydrological modelling...... atmosphere and the groundwater via the land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions, not normally accounted for in climate models. Meso-scale processes are important for climate in general and rainfall in particular. Hydrological...

  20. Modelling hydrological responses of Nerbioi River Basin to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Chust, Guillem; Torp, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Future climate change will affect aquatic systems on various pathways. Regarding the hydrological cycle, which is a very important pathway, changes in hydrometeorological variables (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) in first order impact discharges. The fourth report assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is evidence that the recent warming of the climate system would result in more frequent extreme precipitation events, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. Available research and climate model outputs indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99%). For example, it is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. In Spain, within the Atlantic basin, the hydrological variability will increase in the future due to the intensification of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This might cause flood frequency decreases, but its magnitude does not decrease. The generation of flood, its duration and magnitude are closely linked to changes in winter precipitation. The climatic conditions and relief of the Iberian Peninsula favour the generation of floods. In Spain, floods had historically strong socio-economic impacts, with more than 1525 victims in the past five decades. This upward trend of hydrological variability is expected to remain in the coming decades (medium uncertainty) when the intensification of the positive phase of the NAO index (MMA, 2006) is considered. In order to adapt or minimize climate change impacts in water resources, it is necessary to use climate projections as well as hydrological modelling tools. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the hydrological response to climate changes in flow conditions in Nerbioi river

  1. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin;

    2016-01-01

    simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface......The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate......, plant coverand the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub...

  2. Changes in Köppen-Geiger climate types under a future climate for Australia: hydrological implications

    OpenAIRE

    R. S. Crosbie; D. W. Pollock; F. S. Mpelasoka; Barron, O. V.; S. P. Charles; M. J. Donn

    2012-01-01

    The Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been used for over a century to delineate climate types across the globe. As it was developed to mimic the distribution of vegetation, it may provide a useful surrogate for making projections of the future distribution of vegetation, and hence resultant hydrological implications, under climate change scenarios. This paper developed projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate types covering the Australian continent for a 2030 and 2050...

  3. Climate model uncertainty vs. conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. O. Sonnenborg

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including CO2 emission scenario, climate model, downscaling and impact model. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B. The changes from the reference period (1991–2010 to the future period (2081–2100 in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty on the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

  4. Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnenborg, T. O.; Seifert, D.; Refsgaard, J. C.

    2015-09-01

    Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period (1991-2010) to the future period (2081-2100) in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context-dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty due to the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

  5. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  6. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  7. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  8. Climate change impacts on hydrological extremes in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Hoffmann, Peter

    2016-04-01

    An increase of hydro-climatic extremes can be observed worldwide and is challenging national and regional risk management and adaptation plans. Our study presents and discusses possible trends in climate drivers and hydro-climatic extremes in Europe observed and under future climate conditions. In a case study for Germany, impacts of different regional climate scenario ensembles are compared. To this end, a hydrological model was applied to transform the scenarios data into river runoff for more than 5000 river reaches in Germany. Extreme Value Distributions have been fitted to the hydrographs of the river reaches to derive the basic flood statistics. The results for each river reach have been linked to related damage functions as provided by the German Insurance Association considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The robust result is that under scenario conditions a significant increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany, while also the number of low flow events may rise.

  9. California climate change, hydrologic response, and flood forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, Norman L.

    2003-11-11

    There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research

  10. Consideration of potential effects of climate change and resulting hydrologic impacts on mine developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviewed current studies related to climatic and hydrologic changes with particular reference to the impact on the oil sand industry. General circulation models (GCMs) such as the Canadian Climate Center model predicts warming trends of 1.0 to 1.5 degrees C from 2001 to 2050 over the Canadian Prairies. This increase in near surface temperature could change precipitation and storm patterns, affecting the hydrology of rivers. It could also change the volume and timing of stream flow and river ice conditions. It was noted that predictions of changes in climate at a watershed scale or even a regional scale are either unknown or less reliable than global predictions. There is much uncertainty in predicting hydrologic changes for specific watersheds. However, the risks associated with various magnitudes of change during the planning and environmental assessments of mine developments must be considered because there is the potential for direct consequences for mine developments, such as increased risk of interrupted water supplies, more severe design criteria for impoundment structures due to increased magnitude or frequency of flood events. There is also the potential for indirect consequences through institutional policy changes designed to cope with climate change. Therefore, there is a vital need for scientific information on the potential and magnitude of region-specific climatic and hydrologic changes. The paper identifies gaps in our current understanding of the watersheds processes that may be affected. Some options to mitigate the impacts of potential hydrologic changes on mine developments were discussed and recommendations were proposed as to how climate change could be incorporated in future environmental assessments

  11. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  12. A strategy for using climate data for hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rust, Henning W.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Vagenas, Christos; Meredith, Edmund; Agbeko Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological modeling is the basis for water related impact assessment and the development of management strategies. These models are driven with meteorological data such as precipitation, temperature, wind and humidity. Depending on the nature of the problem, hydrological modelers require meteorological data with a very high spatial and temporal resolution, e.g. to a few kilometers and hours. As dynamical downscaling to such a high resolution is computationally very costly, a continuous downscaling of global climate projections is not feasible for a longer time period. For BINGO, a double-tracked strategy will be implemented to cope with this problem: 1) high resolution dynamical downscaling is limited to episodes favoring hydrological extremes and 2) conditional weather generators are used to simulated large ensembles of spatio-temporal driving fields consistent with the current or projected climate. The first track requires identification of the relevant episodes from global simulations. This is realized by clustering atmospheric variables to obtain a set of circulation patterns. Episodes containing sequences of circulation patterns associated with hydrological extremes are then further downscaled and bias corrected. The second track relies on setting up a weather generator allowing to simulate all relevant variables consistent with the recent climate. We seek to establish a link between this generator and large scale atmospheric drivers to allow simulations consistent with climate projections. While dynamical downscaling is strong in simulating meteorological driving data associated with particular events, conditional weather generators simulate a broader range of events consistent with the large scale situation. The two tracks thus complement each other.

  13. Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

    2005-01-01

    Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

  14. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

  15. A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Lopez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The current study focuses on the development of a regional framework to evaluate hydrologic and sediment sensitivity due to predicted future climate variability using developed archetypal watersheds. The developed archetypes are quasi-synthetic watersheds that integrate observed regional physiographic features (i.e., geomorphology, land cover patterns, etc. with synthetic derivation of basin and reach networks. Each of the three regional archetypes (urban, vegetated and mixed land covers simulates satisfactory hydrologic and sediment behavior compared to historical observations (flow and sediment prior to the climate sensitivity analysis. Climate scenarios considered increasing temperature estimated from the IPCC and precipitation variability based on historical observations and expectations. Archetypal watersheds are modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran model (EPA HSPF and relative changes to streamflow and sediment flux are evaluated. Results indicate that the variability and extent of vegetation play a key role in watershed sensitivity to predicted climate change. Temperature increase alone causes a decrease in annual flow and an increase in sediment flux within the vegetated archetypal watershed only, and these effects are partially mitigated by the presence of impervious surfaces within the urban and mixed archetypal watersheds. Depending on extent of precipitation variability, urban and moderately urban systems can expect the largest alteration to flow regimes where high flow events are expected to become more frequent. As a result, enhanced wash-off of suspended-sediments from available pervious surfaces is expected.

  16. Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-03-01

    Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

  17. Interactions between large-scale modes of climate and their relationship with Australian climate and hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whan, K. R.; Lindesay, J. A.; Timbal, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Williams, E.

    2010-12-01

    Australia’s natural environment is adapted to low rainfall availability and high variability but human systems are less able to adapt to variability in the hydrological cycle. Understanding the mechanisms underlying drought persistence and severity is vital to contextualising future climate change. Multiple external forcings mean the mechanisms of drought occurrence in south-eastern Australian are complex. The key influences on SEA climate are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the sub-tropical ridge (STR); each of these large-scale climate modes (LSCM) has been studied widely. The need for research into the interactions among the modes has been noted [1], although to date this has received limited attention. Relationships between LSCM and hydrometeorological variability are nonlinear, making linearity assumptions underlying usual statistical techniques (e.g. correlation, principle components analysis) questionable. In the current research a statistical technique that can deal with nonlinear interactions is applied to a new dataset enabling a full examination of the Australian water balance. The Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) dataset models the Australian water balance on a fine grid [2]. Hydrological parameters (e.g. soil moisture, evaporation, runoff) are modelled from meteorological data, allowing the complete Australian water balance (climate and hydrology) to be examined and the mechanisms of drought to be studied holistically. Classification and regression trees (CART) are a powerful regression-based technique that is capable of accounting for nonlinear effects. Although it has limited previous application in climate research [3] this methodology is particularly informative in cases with multiple predictors and nonlinear relationships such as climate variability. Statistical relationships between variables are the basis for the decision rules in CART that are used to split

  18. Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Loon, A. F.; Laaha, G.

    2015-07-01

    Impacts of a drought are generally dependent on the severity of the hydrological drought event, which can be expressed by streamflow drought duration or deficit volume. For prediction and the selection of drought sensitive regions, it is crucial to know how streamflow drought severity relates to climate and catchment characteristics. In this study we investigated controls on drought severity based on a comprehensive Austrian dataset consisting of 44 catchments with long time series of hydrometeorological data (on average around 50 year) and information on a large number of physiographic catchment characteristics. Drought analysis was performed with the variable threshold level method and various statistical tools were applied, i.e. bivariate correlation analysis, heatmaps, linear models based on multiple regression, varying slope models, and automatic stepwise regression. Results indicate that streamflow drought duration is primarily controlled by storage, quantified by the Base Flow Index or by a combination of catchment characteristics related to catchment storage and release, e.g. geology and land use. Additionally, the duration of dry spells in precipitation is important for streamflow drought duration. Hydrological drought deficit, however, is governed by average catchment wetness (represented by mean annual precipitation) and elevation (reflecting seasonal storage in the snow pack and glaciers). Our conclusion is that both drought duration and deficit are governed by a combination of climate and catchment control, but not in a similar way. Besides meteorological forcing, storage is important; storage in soils, aquifers, lakes, etc. influences drought duration and seasonal storage in snow and glaciers influences drought deficit. Consequently, the spatial variation of hydrological drought severity is highly dependent on terrestrial hydrological processes.

  19. Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J.C; Sonnenborg, Torben; Butts, Mike; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Christensen, Steen; Drews, Martin; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Flemming, Jørgensen; Larsen, Morten; Søren, Rasmussen; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Dorte, Seifert; Vilhelmsen, Troels Norvin

    2015-01-01

    surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for projections of well field...... capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor importance. The perspectives of reducing the uncertainties on climate change impact projections related to groundwater are discussed with particular focus on the potentials for reducing climate model biases through use of fully coupled......This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results similar to...

  20. Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Immerzeel, Walter W.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Konz, M.; Shrestha, A. B.; M. F. P. Bierkens

    2011-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future deve...

  1. Hydrological response to climate change in a glaciated catchment in the Himalayas

    OpenAIRE

    Immerzeel, W. W.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Konz, M.; Shresta, A.B.; M. F. P. Bierkens

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future deve...

  2. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens;

    - and river flow as well as land surface-atmosphere fluxes of water (evapotranspiration) and energy - significantly reduces precipitation bias compared to the regional climate model alone. For a six year simulation period (2004 – 2010) covering a 2500 km2 catchment substantial improvements in the......The complexity of precipitation processes makes it difficult for climate models to reliably simulate precipitation, particularly at sub-grid scales, where the important processes are associated with detailed land-atmosphere feedbacks like the vertical circulations driven by latent heat that affect...... convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...

  3. Hydrologic sensitivity of Indian sub-continental river basins to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Vimal; Lilhare, Rajtantra

    2016-04-01

    Climate change may pose profound implications for hydrologic processes in Indian sub-continental river basins. Using downscaled and bias corrected future climate projections and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we show that a majority of the Indian sub-continental river basins are projected to shift towards warmer and wetter climate in the future. During the monsoon (June to September) season, under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (8.5), the ensemble mean air temperature is projected to increase by more than 0.5 (0.8), 1.0 (2.0), and 1.5 (3.5) °C in the Near (2010-2039), Mid (2040-2069), and End (2070-2099) term climate, respectively. Moreover, the sub-continental river basins may face an increase of 3-5 °C in the post-monsoon season under the projected future climate. While there is a large intermodel uncertainty, robust increases in precipitation are projected in many sub-continental river basins under the projected future climate especially in the Mid and End term climate. A sensitivity analysis for the Ganges and Godavari river basins shows that surface runoff is more sensitive to change in precipitation and temperature than that of evapotranspiration (ET). An intensification of the hydrologic cycle in the Indian sub-continental basins is evident in the projected future climate. For instance, for Mid and End term climate, ET is projected to increase up to 10% for the majority of the river basins under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the monsoon season, ensemble mean surface runoff is projected to increase more than 40% in 11 (15) basins under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Moreover, streamflow is projected to increase more than 40% in 8 (9) basins during the monsoon season under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Results show that water availability in the sub-continental river basins is more sensitive towards changes in the monsoon season precipitation rather than air temperature. While in the majority

  4. The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.

    1997-01-01

    The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

  5. Climatic and hydrologic influences on wading bird foraging patterns in Everglades National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.

    2007-12-01

    A goal of the Everglades National Park (ENP) restoration project is to ensure that the ecological health of the ENP improves as a direct result of management activities. Achieving hydrologic targets through the proper timing and amount of releases from control structures is a first step in the management process. Significant climate and weather variations in the region influence the ability to make releases and also determine the ecological outcomes. An assessment of the relative impact of climate variations and water releases to ENP in determining ecological outcomes is consequently a key to the evaluation of the success or failure of any restoration plan. Seasonal water depths in ENP depend on managed surface water releases from control structures and on direct rainfall. Here we link wading bird foraging patterns - a fundamental aspect of Everglades' ecology - to hydrologic management and climate variability in the National Park. Our objective is multifold. First, we relate the water levels at P33 and Shark Slough to the synoptic hydrologic conditions. Second, we develop a statistical model relating water levels at a station in central Shark Slough (P33) to wading birds foraging patterns throughout ENP. We attempt to apply a Hierarchical Bayesian scheme to a time series of wading bird to provide an uncertainty distribution of the population over specified time periods given hydrologic condition. Third, we develop a set of hydrologic index derived by recorded water level at P33 for a use of the statistical model of wading birds as an input. Our study will focus on great egret and white ibis that are major species among wading birds in the ENP. The great egret and white ibis prediction predicted by the model using the proposed predictors exhibits strong correlation with the observed streamflow, with an correlation 0.8.

  6. Quadrotor helicopter for surface hydrological measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagano, C.; Tauro, F.; Porfiri, M.; Grimaldi, S.

    2013-12-01

    Surface hydrological measurements are typically performed through user-assisted and intrusive field methodologies which can be inadequate to monitor remote and extended areas. In this poster, we present the design and development of a quadrotor helicopter equipped with digital acquisition system and image calibration units for surface flow measurements. This custom-built aerial vehicle is engineered to be lightweight, low-cost, highly customizable, and stable to guarantee optimal image quality. Quadricopter stability guarantees minimal vibrations during image acquisition and, therefore, improved accuracy in flow velocity estimation through large scale particle image velocimetry algorithms or particle tracking procedures. Stability during the vehicle pitching and rolling is achieved by adopting large arm span and high-wing configurations. Further, the vehicle framework is composed of lightweight aluminum and durable carbon fiber for optimal resilience. The open source Ardupilot microcontroller is used for remote control of the quadricopter. The microcontroller includes an inertial measurement unit (IMU) equipped with accelerometers and gyroscopes for stable flight through feedback control. The vehicle is powered by a 3 cell (11.1V) 3000 mAh Lithium-polymer battery. Electronic equipment and wiring are hosted into the hollow arms and on several carbon fiber platforms in the waterproof fuselage. Four 35A high-torque motors are supported at the far end of each arm with 10 × 4.7 inch propellers. Energy dissipation during landing is accomplished by four pivoting legs that, through the use of shock absorbers, prevent the impact energy from affecting the frame thus causing significant damage. The data capturing system consists of a GoPro Hero3 camera and in-house built camera gimbal and shock absorber damping device. The camera gimbal, hosted below the vehicle fuselage, is engineered to maintain the orthogonality of the camera axis with respect to the water surface by

  7. Modeling the Hydrological Response to Climate Change in an Arid Inland River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, C.; Zhang, A.; Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Liu, J.

    2014-12-01

    Located deep in the hinterlands of Eurasia, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) is an arid inland river basin in northwest China where the hydrologic regime responds sensitively to climate change. From the headwater region to terminal lakes, the HRB can be roughly divided into three sections, i.e., the upstream Qilian Mountains, the midstream oases and the downstream Gobi Desert. Runoff generated in the upstream mountainous terrains, dominated by climate variations, is the critical water resource for the whole river basin. With increasing intensification of climate change, there is an urgent need to understand future changes of water resources and water-related disasters to support regional water management. This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic processes in the upper HRB for the future period of 2021~2150. Downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from six General Circulation Models under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are adopted to drive a commonly used flow model, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for the upper HRB. The impacts of climate change on the total runoff and its components are quantified based on the future climate scenario analysis and the results of SWAT simulation. To understand how the climate change affects the availability and distribution of water resources in the middle and lower HRB where irrigated agriculture and ecosystem conservation compete for water resources, runoffs from the upper HRB are used as the boundary conditions for an integrated groundwater-surface water model based on the USGS GSFLOW for the middle and lower HRB. The integrated model assimilated multiple types of data including groundwater levels at monitoring wells, streamflow at gaging stations, and evapotranspiration (ET) derived from remote sensing data. The calibrated model was able to adequately reproduce the observed hydrological variables. The integrated model was then used to assess the potential response of the

  8. Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

    2016-08-15

    Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative

  9. Impact of the use of a CO2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins

    OpenAIRE

    P. Quintana-Seguí; Faroux, S.; J.-C. Calvet; LAFONT,S; Martin, E.; S. Queguiner

    2011-01-01

    In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs) is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared for the present cli...

  10. Hydrologic effects of urbanization and climate change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viger, Roland; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Jones, John W.; Buell, Gary R.

    2011-01-01

    The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface- runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

  11. Climate Variability and Its Impact on Forest Hydrology on South Carolina Coastal Plain, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl C. Trettin

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the changes in hydrology of coastal forested wetlands induced by climate change is fundamental for developing strategies to sustain their functions and services. This study examined 60 years of climatic observations and 30 years of hydrological data, collected at the Santee Experimental Forest (SEF in coastal South Carolina. We also applied a physically-based, distributed hydrological model (MIKE SHE to better understand the hydrological responses to the observed climate variability. The results from both observation and simulation for the paired forested watershed systems indicated that the forest hydrology was highly susceptible to change due to climate change. The stream flow and water table depth was substantially altered with a change in precipitation. Both flow and water table level decreased with a rise in temperature. The results also showed that hurricanes substantially influenced the forest hydrological patterns for a short time period (several years as a result of forest damage.

  12. Holocene climatic and hydrological changes in Big Soda Lake, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, M. R.; Reidy, L. M.; Starratt, S.; Byrne, R.

    2014-12-01

    It is important to separate the role of hydrology from climate change when assessing the Holocene history of lake sediments. Big Soda Lake is a Holocene maar lake in the Great Basin of Nevada with a 9 m sediment record that covers the Holocene. The mm-scale laminations, diatoms, and δ18O and δ13C from bulk calcite in the core are consistent with a saline, closed-basin lake down to approximately 4.3 m below the sediment water interface. The top 7 cm of the core show the influence of human hydrologic modifications to the area. Below that, stable isotope data shows variable groundwater input that is mostly consistent with climate variation from other records in the western USA. Below 4.3 m depth, the laminations abruptly end and are replaced by unlaminated massive mud, sand, and gravel to the bottom. The isotopic composition of the calcite abruptly changes from covarying, to inversely varying compositions below this break. This break occurred at about 5,600 cal yr BP. In addition, the diatom assemblage below 4.3 m is similar to that found in modern Walker Lake; whereas the diatom assemblage above 4.3 m is similar to modern Mono Lake. The δ18O isotopic composition of the calcite is on average 6 ‰ more negative below 4.3 m than above the change, indicating that the lake contained fresher water before 5,600 cal yr BP ago. The cause for the abrupt change cannot be explained through climate shifts because climate in the Great Basin has been shown to be more arid between 8,000 and 5,000 cal yr BP. It has been hypothesized that the Walker River flowed to the Carson River Basin between about 14,000 and 5,000 cal yr BP, and this added water may have raised the groundwater table sufficiently in the Carson Basin to freshen Big Soda Lake. Once the Walker River diverted back to the Walker Basin, more saline conditions prevailed reflecting changes in climate and human influence at the top of the core.

  13. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

    OpenAIRE

    Fei Yuan; Mingwei Ma; Liliang Ren; Hongren Shen; Yue Li; Shanhu Jiang; Xiaoli Yang; Chongxu Zhao; Hao Kong

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB) in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrologi...

  14. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Walsum, P. E. V.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating wheth...

  15. Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

    2015-06-01

    In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

  16. Modelling and Mapping Oxygen-18 Isotope Composition of Precipitation in Spain for Hydrologic and Climatic Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A simple multiple regression model based on two geographic factors (latitude and elevation) has been developed that reproduces reasonably well the spatial distribution of the current mean oxygen-18 isotope composition in precipitation over spain. In a preliminary analysis, additional geographic and climatic factors do not improve the performance of the model. A continuous digital map of oxygen-18 isotope composition in precipitation has been produced by combining the polynomial model with a digital elevation model using GIS tools. Application of the resulting map to several groundwater case studies in spain has shown it to be useful as a reference of the input function to recharge. Further validation of the model, and further testing of its usefulness in surface hydrology and climatic studies, is ongoing through comparison of model results with isotope data from the GNIP database and from isotope studies in hydrogeology and climate change taking place in spain. (author)

  17. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

  18. Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

  19. Effects of Topographic Slopes on Hydrological Proecsses and Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on previous research results on river re-distribution models, a modification on the effects of topographic slopes for a runoff parameterization was proposed and implemented to the NCAR's land sur face model (LSM). This modification has two aspects: firstly, the topographic slopes cause outflows from higher topography and inflows into the lower topography points; secondly, topographic slopes also cause decrease of infiltration at higher topography and increases of infiltration at lower topography. Then changes in infiltration result in changes in soil moisture, surface fluxes and then in surface temperature, and eventual ly in the upper atmosphere and the climate. This mechanism is very clearly demonstrated in the point bud gets analysis at the Andes Mountains vicinities. Analysis from a regional scale perspective in the Mackenzie GEWEX Study (MAGS) area, the focus of the ongoing Canadian GEWEX program, shows that the modi fied runoff parameterization does bring significant changes in the regional surface climate. More important ly, detailed analysis from a global perspective shows many encouraging improvements introduced by the modified LSM over the original model in simulating basic atmospheric climate properties such as thermodynamic features (temperature and humidity). All of these improvements in the atmospheric climate simulation illustrate that the inclusion of topographic effects in the LSM can force the AGCM to produce a more realistic model climate.

  20. The implementation and validation of improved land-surface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Kevin D.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

    1993-01-01

    New land-surface hydrologic parameterizations are implemented into the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: 1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid-scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface and 2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water and root sink in the soil column. A one-dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three-dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new land-surface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics, is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show similar improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and land-surface) scale to the zonal, continental, and finally the regional river basin scales.

  1. Hydrologic Remote Sensing and Land Surface Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Moradkhani

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate, reliable and skillful forecasting of key environmental variables such as soil moisture and snow are of paramount importance due to their strong influence on many water resources applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management which collectively control the behavior of the climate system. Soil moisture is a key state variable in land surface–atmosphere interactions affecting surface energy fluxes, runoff and the radiation balance. Snow processes also have a large influence on land-atmosphere energy exchanges due to snow high albedo, low thermal conductivity and considerable spatial and temporal variability resulting in the dramatic change on surface and ground temperature. Measurement of these two variables is possible through variety of methods using ground-based and remote sensing procedures. Remote sensing, however, holds great promise for soil moisture and snow measurements which have considerable spatial and temporal variability. Merging these measurements with hydrologic model outputs in a systematic and effective way results in an improvement of land surface model prediction. Data Assimilation provides a mechanism to combine these two sources of estimation. Much success has been attained in recent years in using data from passive microwave sensors and assimilating them into the models. This paper provides an overview of the remote sensing measurement techniques for soil moisture and snow data and describes the advances in data assimilation techniques through the ensemble filtering, mainly Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and Particle filter (PF, for improving the model prediction and reducing the uncertainties involved in prediction process. It is believed that PF provides a complete representation of the probability distribution of state variables of interests (according to sequential Bayes law and could be a strong alternative to EnKF which is subject to some

  2. Large-scale experimental technology with remote sensing in land surface hydrology and meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brutsaert, Wilfried; Schmugge, Thomas J.; Sellers, Piers J.; Hall, Forrest G.

    1988-01-01

    Two field experiments to study atmospheric and land surface processes and their interactions are summarized. The Hydrologic-Atmospheric Pilot Experiment, which tested techniques for measuring evaporation, soil moisture storage, and runoff at scales of about 100 km, was conducted over a 100 X 100 km area in France from mid-1985 to early 1987. The first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Program field experiment was conducted in 1987 to develop and use relationships between current satellite measurements and hydrologic, climatic, and biophysical variables at the earth's surface and to validate these relationships with ground truth. This experiment also validated surface parameterization methods for simulation models that describe surface processes from the scale of vegetation leaves up to scales appropriate to satellite remote sensing.

  3. Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, E.; Kane, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    Fish and wildlife species in the Arctic have developed life history strategies to deal with the extreme climate of the North. In the case of Arctic grayling, these strategies include long life, yearly spawning, and migration. In order to understand how such a species will be affected by a changing climate, we must determine how these adaptive strategies may be at odds with the changing Arctic landscape. Arctic grayling migrate in the spring and early summer to spawning and feeding sites and then in the fall migrate back to overwintering sites. Migration to spawning sites occurs just after break up when rivers are quite swollen from the melting of an entire winter’s worth of snow. Low precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates early in the summer can lead to low water levels and a fragmentation of the hydrologic landscape. This fragmentation creates a barrier to fish migration. As the summer progresses, precipitation tends to increase and evapotranspiration decreases. Hydrologic connectivity is generally restored by the end of summer and soils are wet prior to freeze-up. Increased temperatures associated with climate change lead to greater evapotranspiration. This may lead to increased drying in the summer in the Arctic. Although annual precipitation rates are expected to increase, the direction and magnitude of the change in summer precipitation is less clear. Another possible change in precipitation may be in the form of increased variability or in the probability of extreme events. The research to be presented here details an attempt to recreate the occurrence of hydrologic barriers to fish migration in the Upper Kuparuk River on the North Slope of Alaska. Locations along the Upper Kuparuk which become barriers to migration during low flows were identified and monitored during the summer of 2010. These locations were chosen because during previous low flow events, these stretches run dry even though water is seen flowing both up and downstream of these

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Donald R.

    2001-01-01

    This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

  5. Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

    2015-01-01

    The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale. PMID:26544070

  6. On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Shukla

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Global seasonal hydrologic prediction is crucial to mitigating the impacts of droughts and floods, especially in the developing world. Hydrologic predictability at seasonal lead times (i.e., 1–6 months comes from knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs and seasonal climate forecast skill (FS. In this study we quantify the contributions of two primary components of IHCs – soil moisture and snow water content – and FS (of precipitation and temperature to seasonal hydrologic predictability globally on a relative basis throughout the year. We do so by conducting two model-based experiments using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC macroscale hydrology model, one based on ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP and another based on Reverse-ESP (Rev-ESP, both for a 47 yr re-forecast period (1961–2007. We compare cumulative runoff (CR, soil moisture (SM and snow water equivalent (SWE forecasts from each experiment with a VIC model-based reference data set (generated using observed atmospheric forcings and estimate the ratio of root mean square error (RMSE of both experiments for each forecast initialization date and lead time, to determine the relative contribution of IHCs and FS to the seasonal hydrologic predictability. We find that in general, the contributions of IHCs to seasonal hydrologic predictability is highest in the arid and snow-dominated climate (high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere during forecast periods starting on 1 January and 1 October. In mid-latitude regions, such as the Western US, the influence of IHCs is greatest during the forecast period starting on 1 April. In the arid and warm temperate dry winter regions of the Southern Hemisphere, the IHCs dominate during forecast periods starting on 1 April and 1 July. In equatorial humid and monsoonal climate regions, the contribution of FS is generally higher than IHCs through most of the year. Based on our findings, we argue that despite the limited FS

  7. Hydrological Response of Alpine Wetlands to Climate Warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjiang Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Alpine wetlands in the Tibetan Plateau (TP play a crucial role in the regional hydrological cycle due to their strong influence on surface ecohydrological processes; therefore, understanding how TP wetlands respond to climate change is essential for projecting their future condition and potential vulnerability. We investigated the hydrological responses of a large TP wetland complex to recent climate change, by combining multiple satellite observations and in-situ hydro-meteorological records. We found different responses of runoff production to regional warming trends among three basins with similar climate, topography and vegetation cover but different wetland proportions. The basin with larger wetland proportion (40.1% had a lower mean runoff coefficient (0.173 ± 0.006, and also showed increasingly lower runoff level (−3.9% year−1, p = 0.002 than the two adjacent basins. The satellite-based observations showed an increasing trend of annual non-frozen period, especially in the wetland-dominated region (2.64 day·year−1, p < 0.10, and a strong extension of vegetation growing-season (0.26–0.41 day·year−1, p < 0.10. Relatively strong increasing trends in evapotranspiration (ET (~1.00 mm·year−1, p < 0.01 and the vertical temperature gradient above ground surface (0.043 °C·year−1, p < 0.05 in wetland-dominant areas were documented from satellite-based ET observations and weather station records. These results indicate recent surface drying and runoff reduction of alpine wetlands, and their potential vulnerability to degradation with continued climate warming.

  8. Climate and hydrological uncertainties in projections of flood and low-flows in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauquet, E.; Vidal, J.-P.; Perrin, C.; Bourgin, P.-Y.; Chauveau, M.; Chazot, S.

    2012-04-01

    Changes in river flows are associated with different types of uncertainties, due to an imperfect knowledge of both future climate and rainfall-runoff processes. Due to computational constraints, impact and adaptation studies unfortunately cannot always afford to perform a detailed analysis of all these uncertainties. In that case, the modelling efforts have to focus on the most relevant source of uncertainty in order to provide the best estimate of the overall uncertainty. As part of the national Explore2070 project, the present study thus aims at assessing the hierarchy of uncertainties in changes on river flow extremes at the scale of France. Amongst all possible sources of uncertainties, two are here considered: (1) the uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) configuration, with 7 different models that adequately sample the range of changes as projected by the GCMs used in the IPCC AR4 over France, and (2) the uncertainty in hydrological model structure, with 2 quite different models: GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), a lumped conceptual model, and Isba-Modcou (Habets et al., 2008), a suite of a land surface scheme and a distributed hydrogeological model. The hydrological models have been run at more than 1500 locations in France over the 1961-1990 baseline period with forcings from both the Safran near-surface atmospheric reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010) and the GCM control runs downscaled with a weather type method (Boé et al., 2006), and over the 2046-2065 period with forcings from all downscaled GCM runs under the A1B emissions scenario. Various high flow indices (annual maximum daily flow with return period of 10 and 20 years, the daily flow value exceeded 10% of the time) and low flow indices (annual minimum monthly flow with a 5-year return period, annual minimum 10-day mean flow with a 2-year return period, the daily flow value exceeded 95% of the time) as well as seasonality indices have been computed for both periods. An analysis of variance has been

  9. The seasonal dynamics of Arctic surface hydrology in permafrost environments

    OpenAIRE

    Trofaier, Anna Maria

    2014-01-01

    Climate-induced landscape evolution is resulting in changes to biogeochemical and hydrologi- cal cycling. In the Arctic and sub-Arctic permafrost zones, rising air temperatures are warming, and in some regions even thawing, the frozen ground. Permafrost is a carbon sink. The thermal state of the ground therefore has important implications on carbon exchange with the atmo- sphere. Permafrost thaw mobilises previously sequestered carbon stocks, potentially turning these high latitude regions in...

  10. Assessment of the effect of climate change on the hydrological cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt

    (shortened) Climate change is a well-established problem that humanity is facing in this century. However, predicting and evaluating projected future changes in climate are subject to a range of uncertainties, this is also true when assessing future hydrological conditions. This Ph.D. study focuses...... on hydrological impacts and modelling uncertainties of two Danish catchments. This is investigated by calibrating a simple lumped hydrological model under non-stationary historical climate conditions. The model showed deteriorating performance for periods outside the period where the model was...... choosing a specific impact study setup was also investigated by simulating and analysing results from three factors; four climate models in combinations with three hydrological models and four land use scenarios. Results showed that the climate model was the dominant uncertainty factor on stream flow and...

  11. Development of a ground hydrology model suitable for global climate modeling using soil morphology and vegetation cover, and an evaluation of remotely sensed information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobler, L.; Lewis, R.

    1988-01-01

    The long-term purpose was to contribute to scientific understanding of the role of the planet's land surfaces in modulating the flows of energy and matter which influence the climate, and to quantify and monitor human-induced changes to the land environment that may affect global climate. Highlights of the effort include the following: production of geo-coded, digitized World Soil Data file for use with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model; contribution to the development of a numerical physically-based model of ground hydrology; and assessment of the utility of remote sensing for providing data on hydrologically significant land surface variables.

  12. Dynamics of Hydrological Growing Season at Kano as Evidence of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.A. Sawa

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The semi arid region of Nigeria is experiencing the impact of climate change. Daily rainfall records from 1976-2011 were used to examine the impact of climate change on the hydrological growing season at Kano. The onset, cessation and length of rainy season at Kano were determined. The estimated parameters were subjected to time series analysis. Trend lines and fitted linear trend line equations for each of the parameters were produced. The Mann-kendall tau (&tau statistic was used to investigate the significance of these trends. The results show that the rainy season has progressively been starting late as signified by the positive trend line equation of y = 0.183x+41054. Trend analysis showed that the rains ceases earlier in recent decades. This is corroborated by the negative linear trend line equation (y = -0.438x+41184. The results also indicated that the hydrological growing season is progressively shortening. The implication of late onset and early cessation is the decreasing length of the hydrological growing season as indicated by a negative linear trend line equation (y = -0.395x+1289. The length of the hydrological growing season has decreased from an average of about 140 ±5 days to about 120 ±5 in the state. The Mann-kendall tau (&tau statistic showed significant trends for all the parameters at 0.05 level. The results of this study have great implications for both surface and underground water resource management, agriculture and sustainable food security not only for the Kano region but Nigeria at large. Increased irrigation agriculture is eminent in this environment.

  13. Responses of Hydrological Cycle to Recent Climatic Changes in the Yellow River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Y.; Tang, Q.

    2012-12-01

    China Meteorological Administration (CMA) data showed that precipitation in Yellow River Basin was low in the 1990s but returned to above normal after 2002. In recent decades, the meteorological observations also showed rapid increase in surface air temperature and decrease in wind speed. However, little is known about how hydrological cycle responds to these recent climatic changes. Here, we applied a well calibrated and verified hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to reconstruct the hydrological cycle in the Yellow River Basin during 1960-2009. The basin was divided into 76 sub-basins. We calculated percentage changes in three hydrologic variables runoff, evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation between two periods 1991-2002 and 2003-2009 and historical period 1960-1990. The results showed that basin-averaged runoff and precipitation in 1991-2002 were lower than those in 1960-1990, and runoff became higher and precipitation was still lower in 2003-2009. ET in both periods 1991-2002 and 2003-2009 was lower than that in 1960-1990. The hydrologic changes were not homogeneous over the basin. In the arid upper and middle reaches, precipitation in 2003-2009 had recovered to be higher than that in 1960-1990. However, runoff was lower and ET was higher than that in 1960-1990. In the middle and lower basin, precipitation in 2003-2009 had never recovered to its level in 1960-1990 whereas runoff was greatest. Meanwhile, ET in 2003-2009 was lower than that in 1960-1990. The distinct change patterns in runoff and precipitation suggests long-term water resources change could be largely modulated by ET change.

  14. Olkiluoto surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The modeling approaches carried out with the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD) include palaeohydrological evolution of the Olkiluoto Island, examination of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone, simulations related to infiltration experiment, prediction of the influence of ONKALO on hydraulic head in shallow and deep bedrock and optimisation of the shallow monitoring network. A so called short-term prediction system was developed for continuous updating of the estimated drawdowns caused by ONKALO. The palaeohydrological simulations were computed for a period starting from the time when the highest hills on Olkiluoto Island rose above sea level around 2 500 years ago. The input data needed in the model were produced by the UNTAMO-toolbox. The groundwater flow evolution is primarily driven by the postglacial land uplift and the uncertainty in the land uplift model is the biggest single factor that influences the accuracy of the results. The consistency of the boundary condition at the geosphere-biosphere interface zone (GBIZ) was studied during 2010. The comparison carried out during 2010 showed that pressure head profiles computed with the SHYD model and deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA are in good agreement with each other in the uppermost 100 m of the bedrock. This implies that flux profiles computed with the two approaches are close to each other and hydraulic heads computed at level z=0 m with the SHYD can be used as head boundary condition in the deep groundwater flow model FEFTRA. The surface hydrological model was used to analyse the results of the infiltration experiment. Increase in bedrock recharge inside WCA explains around 60-63 % from the amount of water pumped from OL-KR14 and 37-40 % of the water pumped from OL-KR14 flows towards pumping section via the hydrogeological zones. Pumping from OL-KR14 has only a minor effect on heads and fluxes in zones HZ19A and HZ19C compared to responses caused by leakages into

  15. Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

    2015-01-01

    Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

  16. On the sources of global land surface hydrologic predictability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Shukla

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Global seasonal hydrologic prediction is crucial to mitigating the impacts of droughts and floods, especially in the developing world. Hydrologic prediction skill at seasonal lead times (i.e. 1–6 months comes from knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs – primarily the state of initial soil moisture and snow and seasonal climate forecast skill (FS. In this study we quantify the contributions of IHCs and FS to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill globally on a relative basis throughout the year. We do so by conducting two model-based experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC macroscale hydrology model, one based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP and another based on Reverse-ESP (rESP, both for a 47 yr reforecast period (1961–2007. We compare cumulative runoff (CR, soil moisture (SM and snow water equivalent (SWE forecasts obtained from each experiment with a control simulation forced with observed atmospheric forcings over the reforecast period and estimate the ratio of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE of both experiments for each forecast initialization date and lead time. We find that in general, the contributions of IHCs are greater than the contribution of FS over the Northern (Southern Hemisphere during the forecast period starting in October and January (April and July. Over snow dominated regions in the Northern Hemisphere the IHCs dominate the CR forecast skill for up to 6 months lead time during the forecast period starting in April. Based on our findings we argue that despite the limited FS (mainly for precipitation better estimates of the IHCs could lead to improvement in the current level of seasonal hydrologic forecast skill over many regions of the globe at least during some parts of the year.

  17. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.

    2011-11-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a

  18. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. E. V. van Walsum

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55 than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come

  19. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  20. Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of Uncertainties (Alexander von Humboldt Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujumdar, Pradeep P.

    2014-05-01

    Climate change results in regional hydrologic change. The three prominent signals of global climate change, viz., increase in global average temperatures, rise in sea levels and change in precipitation patterns convert into signals of regional hydrologic change in terms of modifications in water availability, evaporative water demand, hydrologic extremes of floods and droughts, water quality, salinity intrusion in coastal aquifers, groundwater recharge and other related phenomena. A major research focus in hydrologic sciences in recent years has been assessment of impacts of climate change at regional scales. An important research issue addressed in this context deals with responses of water fluxes on a catchment scale to the global climatic change. A commonly adopted methodology for assessing the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change is to use the climate projections provided by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) for specified emission scenarios in conjunction with the process-based hydrologic models to generate the corresponding hydrologic projections. The scaling problem arising because of the large spatial scales at which the GCMs operate compared to those required in distributed hydrologic models, and their inability to satisfactorily simulate the variables of interest to hydrology are addressed by downscaling the GCM simulations to hydrologic scales. Projections obtained with this procedure are burdened with a large uncertainty introduced by the choice of GCMs and emission scenarios, small samples of historical data against which the models are calibrated, downscaling methods used and other sources. Development of methodologies to quantify and reduce such uncertainties is a current area of research in hydrology. In this presentation, an overview of recent research carried out by the author's group on assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change addressing scale issues and quantification of uncertainties is provided. Methodologies developed

  1. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Ex...

  2. Fluorescent Particle Tracers for Surface Hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Tauro, Flavia

    2014-01-01

    Surface water processes control downstream runoff phenomena, waste and pollutant diffusion, erosion mechanics, and sediment transport. However, current observational methodologies do not allow for the identification and kinematic characterization of the physical processes contributing to catchment dynamics. Traditional methodologies are not capable to cope with extreme in-situ conditions, including practical logistic challenges as well as inherent flow complexity. In addition, available obs...

  3. Hydrological EXtreme Events in Changing Climate: The HEX Events project

    OpenAIRE

    G. Benito; Macklin, M. G.; Cohen, K.M.; J. Herget

    2013-01-01

    Chronological control of Late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial archives has much improved during the past decades, and this is renewing their use in order to improve records of extreme hydrological events worldwide. A extreme hydrological event is here defined in the sense given by Gregroy et al., (2006), meaning any past process or phenomena related to the hydrological cycle (e.g. rainfall, runoff, snowmelt, flood, water recharge) with a magnitude higher/lower than the mean and probably abov...

  4. Atmospheric and land surface measurements in a prototype hydrologic observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B.; Krajewski, W.; Famiglietti, J.; Duffy, C.

    2003-12-01

    Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in fluxes across interfaces and storage within reservoirs is critical for understanding the water cycle. The interfaces being considered in this presentation on the Neuse basin prototype hydrologic observatory (HO) include the land surface - atmosphere and land surface - groundwater. Critical fluxes include precipitation, infiltration, evapotranspiration and energy balance, and groundwater recharge; soil water storage in the unsaturated zone is an important determinant of flux partitioning at either interface. A companion presentation in this session (Genereux et al.) focuses on fluxes of water and solutes related to groundwater-surface water interfaces and surface water flow. The proposed measurement approach combines remote sensing and in-situ measurements to cover a wide range in spatial (1 m2 - 10,000 km2) scales. High-resolution precipitation maps will be provided by a combination of NEXRAD data and an enhanced ground-based network of rain gauges, disdrometers, and profilers. Evapotranspiration and energy balance fluxes will be monitored at several locations to characterize spatial patterns and process controls. Measurements of water content and matric potential will be co-located in the unsaturated zone to develop in situ water retention functions and to test existing pedotransfer functions for translating basic soils data to hydraulic parameters for modeling. Subsurface water fluxes in the unsaturated zone will also be estimated using newly developed fluxmeters. Co-located unsaturated and saturated zone instrumentation will be used to measure vertical and horizontal gradients to determine flux direction and to quantify fluxes using modeling. Fluxes in the unsaturated zone below the root zone may be equated to groundwater recharge. In addition, environmental tracers (tritium/helium and chlorofluorocarbons) will be measured in groundwater to estimate recharge rates. Ground-based measurements will be located in

  5. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    OpenAIRE

    N. Köplin; B. Schädler; D. Viviroli; R. Weingartner

    2012-01-01

    Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate s...

  6. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    OpenAIRE

    Köplin, Nina; Schädler, Bruno; Viviroli, Daniel; Weingartner, Rolf

    2013-01-01

    Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenario...

  7. Surface runoff in flat terrain: How field topography and runoff generating processes control hydrological connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appels, Willemijn M.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; van der Zee, Sjoerd E. A. T. M.

    2016-03-01

    In flat lowland agricultural catchments in temperate climate zones with highly permeable sandy soils, surface runoff is a rare process with a large impact on the redistribution of sediments and solutes and stream water quality. We examine hydrological data obtained on two field sites in the Netherlands for a period of 1.5 years to give an integrated narrative of surface runoff in this type of catchment. In the monitoring period, seven surface runoff events were observed with a magnitude of 9.8-975 L runoff. Four of these events were classified as saturation excess events, due to a shallow water table. Three of the events occurred under infiltration excess conditions due to rainfall in combination with snowmelt. Though the microtopography of the fields was quite different, they were identical in terms of topographical indicators. Therefore, we analyzed the dynamics of hydrological connectivity on these fields with a numerical model that takes into account routing variability through microtopography and calculated simplified hydrographs and Relative Surface Connection functions from the results. The connectivity dynamics of the fields were different as quantified by these indicators. We found that the dynamics of hydrological connectivity in this low-angle terrain are not just a function of the soil surface meso- and microtopography, but also of the type of surface runoff generating process. This is an important factor to consider when using connectivity functions as an upscaling tool in catchment scale modeling.

  8. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  9. Glacier and hydrology changes in future climate over western Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winger, Katja; Sushama, Laxmi; Marshall, Shawn

    2016-04-01

    Glaciers are frozen fresh water reservoirs that respond to changes in temperature and snowfall. Concern is growing about the impact that changes in glaciers may have on water resources in regions such as western Canada that derive a lot of their summer streamflow from glacier melt. Given that RCM projections are an important tool and are increasingly being used in assessing projected changes to water resources, particularly due to its high resolution compared with GCMs, realistic representation of glaciers in RCMs is very important. Currently, glaciers are only represented in an extremely simplified way in the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). This simple approach of representing glaciers as static glacier masks is appropriate for short-term integrations, where the response of glacier to changing atmospheric conditions might still be small due to glacier response times and therefore the feedback of changing glacier extent on large-scale atmospheric flow conditions might be negligible. A new dynamic glacier scheme has been developed for use within CRCM5, based on volume-area relationships. Simulations have been performed with this glacier model and Land Surface Scheme CLASS for the 2000-2100 period over a domain covering western Canada. These simulations were driven by outputs from a CRCM5 transient climate change simulation driven by CanESM2 at the lateral boundaries, for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Preliminary results suggest significant decreases to glacier fractions in future climate. Though the glacier contribution to streamflows is found to dramatically decrease in future climate, the total streamflows did not show any dramatic decreases due to the increase in precipitation for these regions.

  10. Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by the internal atmospheric variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gelfan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to the uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties. Importantly, the role of the internal atmospheric variability is the most visible over the spatial–temporal scales of water management in large river basins. The internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. The ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012 and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of the bias-corrected ECHAM5-outputs as well as ensemble averaged ECHAM5-output are used as the distributed input for ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and the Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the SD of the annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as the annual runoff trend are assessed. The uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by the internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that the uncertainty of the mean and SD of the runoff has a distinguished seasonal dependence with maximum during the periods of spring-summer snowmelt and summer-autumn rainfall floods. A noticeable non-linearity of the hydrological models' response to the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvine River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. The simulated trends are close to

  11. Hydrological EXtreme Events in Changing Climate: The HEX Events project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benito, G.; Macklin, M.G.; Cohen, K.M.; Herget, J.

    2013-01-01

    Chronological control of Late Pleistocene and Holocene fluvial archives has much improved during the past decades, and this is renewing their use in order to improve records of extreme hydrological events worldwide. A extreme hydrological event is here defined in the sense given by Gregroy et al., (

  12. Arctic Hydrology and the role of feedbacks in the climate system (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L. D.

    2009-12-01

    The effects of a warming climate on the terrestrial regions of the Arctic are already quite apparent and impacts to the hydrologic system are also quite evident. The broadest impacts to the terrestrial arctic regions will result through consequent effects of changing permafrost structure and extent. As the climate differentially warms in summer and winter, the permafrost will become warmer, the active layer (the layer of soil above the permafrost that annually experiences freeze and thaw) will become thicker, the lower boundary of permafrost will become shallower and permafrost extent will decrease in area. These simple structural changes will affect every aspect of the surface water and energy balances and local ecology. Surface moisture and surface temperature are the main driving variables in local terrestrial and atmospheric linkages. Surface temperature is the linchpin in energy fluxes since it links atmospheric thermal gradients, forcing convective heat transfer, with the subsurface thermal gradients, driving conductive heat transfer. Soil moisture exerts a strong influence upon energy fluxes through controls on evaporative heat flux, phase change in thawing of permafrost, and indirect effects on thermal conductivity. In order to understand and predict ecosystem responses to a changing climate and the resultant feedbacks, it is critical to quantify the dynamic interactions of soil moisture and temperature with changes in permafrost as a function of climatic processes, landscape type, and vegetation. In future climate scenarios, the Arctic is expected to be warmer, and experience greater precipitation. With the lengthening of the summer season, however, more of this precipitation will occur as rain. The periods of potential evaporation, and transpiration will also increase. Oddly enough, even now, the Arctic may be considered a desert. The vast wetlands that cover large portions of Alaska, Canada and Siberia exist because permafrost prevents soil moisture and

  13. Calibration of GEOtop for a Mountainous Watershed—a Hydrological Land-Surface Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullhart, A. T.; Kelleners, T.

    2015-12-01

    GEOtop is a distributed finite-difference hydrological land-surface model with a built-in snow evolution package. Ongoing model calibrations and solutions are presented for a very small, low-order watershed within a forested mountain range at ~10,000 ft. elevation. The catchment has a hydrological budget that is dominated by snow input. During model calibration, potential configurations for spatial discretization and resolution are tested by comparison to field measurements—as are alternative soil properties and surface runoff parameters. Also demonstrated is the effect of variable geomorphology as it relates to the energy budget and the subsequent distribution of modeled outputs. Within the larger scope of the WYCEHG research group (i.e. The Wyoming Center for Environmental Hydrology and Geophysics), which works towards a multi-disciplinary approach to field modeling, additional complexities beyond stream flow and soil moisture can be conceptualized and tested based on measurements of snowpacks, evapotranspiration, and geophysical imaging. A combination of these give a better understanding of critical components of the hydrological balance—some of which are in states of flux, e.g., tree cover (due to beetle-kill), and future climate change scenarios.

  14. Analysis of possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes of different regions in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bormann

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the impact of climate change scenarios on the hydrological regimes of five different regions in Germany is investigated. These regions (Northwest Germany, Northeast Germany and East German basins, upper and lower Rhine, pre-Alps differ with respect to present climate and projected climate change. The physically based SVAT-model SIMULAT is applied to theoretical soil columns based on combinations of land use, soil texture and groundwater depth to quantify climate change effects on the hydrological regime. Observed climate, measured at climate stations of the German Weather Service (1991–2007, is used for comparison with climate projections (2071–2100 generated by the regional scale climate model WETTREG.

    While all climate scenarios implicate an increase in precipitation in winter, a decrease in precipitation in summer and an increase in temperature, the simulated impacts on the hydrological regime are regionally different. In the Rhine region and in Northwest Germany, an increase in the annual runoff and groundwater recharge is simulated despite the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In the Eastern part of Germany and the pre-Alps, annual runoff and groundwater recharge will decrease. Due to dry conditions in summer, the soil moisture deficit will increase (in Northeast Germany and the East German basins in particular or remain constant (Rhine region. In all regions the seasonal variability in runoff and soil moisture status will increase. Despite regional warming actual evapotranspiration will decrease in most regions except in areas with shallow groundwater tables and the lower Rhine. Although the study is limited by the fact that only one climate model was used to drive one hydrologic model, the study shows that the hydrological regime will be affected by climate change. The direction of the expected changes seems to be obvious as well as the necessity of the adaptation of future water

  15. Discerning Climate and Land-use Change Impacts on Watershed Hydrology: Implications for Gulf Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the U.S. Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. Th...

  16. Climate refugia: The physical, hydrologic and disturbance basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Z. A.; Maneta, M. P.; Forthofer, J.

    2015-12-01

    Projected changes in global climate and associated shifts in vegetation have increased interest in understanding species persistence at local scales. We examine the climatic and physical factors that could mediate changes in the distribution of vegetation in regions of complex topography. Using massive networks of low-cost temperature and humidity sensors, we developed topographically-resolved daily historical gridded temperature data for the US Northern Rockies. We used the WindNinja model to create daily historical wind speed maps across the same domain. Using a spatially distributed ecohydrology model (ECH2O) we examine separately the sensitivity of modeled evapotranspiration and soil moisture to wind, radiation, soil properties, minimum temperature and humidity. A suite of physical factors including lower wind speeds, cold air drainage, solar shading and increased soil depth reduce evapotranspiration and increase late season moisture availability in valley bottoms. Evapotranspiration shows strong sensitivity to spatial variability in surface wind speed, suggesting that sheltering effects from winds may be an important factor contributing to mountain refugia. Fundamental to our understanding of patterns of vegetation change is the role of stand-replacing wildfires, which modify the physical environment and subsequent patterns of species persistence and recruitment. Using satellite-derived maps of burn severity for recent fires in the US Northern Rockies we examined relationships between wind speed, cold air drainage potential and soil depth and the occurrence of unburned and low severity fire. Severe fire is less likely to occur in areas with high cold air drainage potential and low wind speeds, suggesting that sheltered valley bottoms have mediated the severity of recent wildfires. Our finding highlight the complex physical mechanisms by which mountain weather and climate mediate fire-induced vegetation changes in the US Northern Rocky Mountains.

  17. Surface hydrologic investigations of the Columbia Plateau Region, Washington

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leonhart, L.S.

    1979-07-01

    The Washington State portion of the Columbia Plateau is divided into six hydrologic sub-basins on the basis of the principal surface drainage systems present, structural and topographic relationships, and political and other considerations. Baseline descriptions of the surface water systems and resources are presented for the Columbia Plateau with emphasis on the Pasco Sub-basin. A preliminary evaluation of the hydrologic budget for each sub-basin is derived. For each sub-basin, recharge/discharge relationships arising from precipitation/evapotranspiration/runoff, stream losses and gains, and artificial mechanisms are determined on the basis of available data. The net exchange between surface and groundwater systems is evaluated and relative estimates of the net groundwater flow into or out of the sub-basin are obtained. An evaluation is made of hydrologic risk factors arising from: (1) tributary flooding in eastern Washington; and, (2) major flooding of the Columbia River within the Pasco Sub-basin. Scenarios are presented for credible natural and man-generated catastrophic events.

  18. Surface hydrologic investigations of the Columbia Plateau Region, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Washington State portion of the Columbia Plateau is divided into six hydrologic sub-basins on the basis of the principal surface drainage systems present, structural and topographic relationships, and political and other considerations. Baseline descriptions of the surface water systems and resources are presented for the Columbia Plateau with emphasis on the Pasco Sub-basin. A preliminary evaluation of the hydrologic budget for each sub-basin is derived. For each sub-basin, recharge/discharge relationships arising from precipitation/evapotranspiration/runoff, stream losses and gains, and artificial mechanisms are determined on the basis of available data. The net exchange between surface and groundwater systems is evaluated and relative estimates of the net groundwater flow into or out of the sub-basin are obtained. An evaluation is made of hydrologic risk factors arising from: (1) tributary flooding in eastern Washington; and, (2) major flooding of the Columbia River within the Pasco Sub-basin. Scenarios are presented for credible natural and man-generated catastrophic events

  19. Surface radiation governs precipitation responses in transient and equilibrium climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth

    2014-05-01

    Changes in radiative forcing are important not only for their impact on the Earth's temperature but also for their impact on the hydrological cycle. We show that model predictions of an amplified hydrological cycle under higher-CO2 conditions are well explained by changes in the surface energy budget: increased latent heat export largely balances increased downwelling longwave radiation, primarily due to increased humidity in a warmer atmosphere (see also Wild and Liepert 2010). We demonstrate that similar fundamental radiative adjustments govern global precipitation evolution across models, using twenty different GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), purpose-run simulations with a fully-coupled GCM (CCSM3), and a simple one-column climate model (CliMT) with no cloud feedbacks but full representations of radiation, convection, turbulence, and surface ocean-atmosphere interaction. Physically understandable surface energy balance changes explain precipitation evolution in both equilibrium and transient climates (the well-documented 'fast' and 'slow' responses), in cases with different forcing agents (solar insolation and CO2), and in geo-engineering simulations where reduced shortwave forcing compensates for increased longwave opacity. We show that the enhancement in precipitation after an increase in radiative forcing is primarily due to the radiative effects of increased water vapor, which in turn produces the similarity in precipitation evolution in solar- and CO2-forced climates. We also show that differences in precipitation evolution between GCMs are due largely to differences in model shortwave feedbacks. The results of this study suggest that changes in the Earth's hydrological cycle under climate change can best be monitored and understood with surface measurements of longwave and shortwave fluxes, especially in the tropics and subtropics that account for the majority of the global moisture supply. References Wild, M. and B

  20. Impact of projected climate change within two hydrologic regimes in British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A. T.; Shrestha, R.

    2011-12-01

    Continued warming and changing precipitation patterns will have a large effect on the hydrology of British Columbia (BC), with the possibility for subsequent impacts to various ecological and water-related resources and activities. Throughout most of BC, seasonal runoff is either snow-dominated (nival regimes), or snow influenced (hybrid nival-pluvial or nival-glacial regimes), which makes the region particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. However, the hydro-climatology of British Columbia (BC) is spatially complex and it is expected that seasonal hydrologic impacts will vary regionally. To explore this regional variability, two watersheds with unique hydro-climatic settings were analyzed for their response to projections of future climate change. The Campbell River watershed in south-western BC experiences a coastal climate of mild wet winters and warm dry summers and, due to a large elevation range, the basin exhibits a mixed nival-pluvial hydrologic regime. The Upper Peace River basin, located in north-eastern BC, has a typical continental climate and possesses a nival hydrologic regime. Hydrologic changes were estimated based on temperature and precipitation projections from eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 project, run under three IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, and statistically downscaled, for a total of 23 combinations (not all scenarios were available for all GCMs). These transient scenarios provide projections that range from a future with relatively less warming and moistening ("cool/dry") to relatively more warming and moistening ("warm/wet"). This ensemble approach explicitly addresses both emissions and GCM uncertainty in the final suite of climate projections. Hydrologic impacts were then assessed by using the downscaled climate projections to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Hydrologic impacts were estimated by comparing the future period 2041 to 2071 (i.e., the 2050s) to the 1961 to

  1. Combining data sources to characterise climatic variability for hydrological modelling in high mountain catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritchard, David; Fowler, Hayley; Bardossy, Andras; O'Donnell, Greg; Forsythe, Nathan

    2016-04-01

    Robust hydrological modelling of high mountain catchments to support water resources management depends critically on the accuracy of climatic input data. However, the hydroclimatological complexity and sparse measurement networks typically characteristic of these environments present significant challenges for determining the structure of spatial and temporal variability in key climatic variables. Focusing on the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), this research explores how different data sources can be combined in order to characterise climatic patterns and related uncertainties at the scales required in hydrological modelling. Analysis of local observations with respect to underlying climatic processes and variability is extended relative to previous studies in this region, which forms a basis for evaluating the domains of applicability and potential insights associated with selected remote sensing and reanalysis products. As part of this, the information content of recent high resolution simulations for understanding climatic patterns is assessed, with particular reference to the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR). A strategy for integrating these different data sources to obtain plausible realisations of the distributed climatic fields needed for hydrological modelling is developed on the basis of this analysis, which provides a platform for exploring uncertainties arising from potential biases and other sources of error. The interaction between uncertainties in climatic input data and alternative approaches to process parameterisation in hydrological and cryospheric modelling is explored.

  2. Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

  3. Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. A. J. Van Lanen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale hydrological drought studies have demonstrated spatial and temporal patterns in observed trends, and considerable difference exists among global hydrological models in their ability to reproduce these patterns. In this study a controlled modeling experiment has been set up to systematically explore the role of climate and physical catchment structure (soils and groundwater systems to better understand underlying drought-generating mechanisms. Daily climate data (1958–2001 of 1495 grid cells across the world were selected that represent Köppen–Geiger major climate types. These data were fed into a conceptual hydrological model. Nine realizations of physical catchment structure were defined for each grid cell, i.e., three soils with different soil moisture supply capacity and three groundwater systems (quickly, intermediately and slowly responding. Hydrological drought characteristics (number, duration and standardized deficit volume were identified from time series of daily discharge. Summary statistics showed that the equatorial and temperate climate types (A- and C-climates had about twice as many drought events as the arid and polar types (B- and E-climates, and the durations of more extreme droughts were about half the length. Selected soils under permanent grassland were found to have a minor effect on hydrological drought characteristics, whereas groundwater systems had major impact. Groundwater systems strongly controlled the hydrological drought characteristics of all climate types, but particularly those of the wetter A-, C- and D-climates because of higher recharge. The median number of droughts for quickly responding groundwater systems was about three times higher than for slowly responding systems. Groundwater systems substantially affected the duration, particularly of the more extreme drought events. Bivariate probability distributions of drought duration and standardized deficit for combinations of K

  4. Surface Hydrological Load Displacements from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puskas, C. M.; Meertens, C. M.; Phillips, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    UNAVCO is currently developing forward displacement models from surface water stored in soil moisture, snowpack, and vegetation based on the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). UNAVCO already produces hydrological models from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), estimating the elastic loading from surface water at GPS coordinates for stations and processed by the GAGE Analysis Center. GLDAS incorporates satellite and ground observations into forcing parameters to be used for climate and weather models. The GLDAS forcing parameters include temperature, humidity, precipitation, radiation, wind, and pressure data at global 1º grid squares, excluding the oceanic surface. NLDAS uses the same set of forcing parameters but in an area restricted to the continental United States plus parts of Canada and Mexico and with a 0.125º grid. Research groups contribute Land Surface Models (LSMs) based on NLDAS or GLDAS to produce time series of modeled environmental parameters. Individual LSMs differ based on model equations and soil and vegetation properties. In this study we extract the parameters from the NLDAS LSMs to produce hydrologic displacement models at GPS station coordinates within the conterminous US. We check whether NLDAS displacement models can resolve regional variations due to topography that are smoothed in the GLDAS models. We compare the soil moisture, snowpack, and vegetation mass per area directly between the GLDAS and NLDAS LSMs, to see whether the mass variations between GLDAS and NLDAS are large enough to cause significant deformation changes. By comparing the hydrologic displacement models with GPS time series, we estimate how well the surface water loading predicts observed seasonal and secular GPS signals as opposed to tectonic signals. These comparisons will help us evaluate the NLDAS-derived displacement models as part of the process of developing a new model product for use in time series analysis, tectonic or hydrologic

  5. Bayesian inverse modeling at the hydrological surface-subsurface interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchi, K.; Rubin, Y.

    2014-12-01

    In systems where surface and subsurface hydrological domains are highly connected, modeling surface and subsurface flow jointly is essential to accurately represent the physical processes and come up with reliable predictions of flows in river systems or stream-aquifer exchange. The flow quantification at the interface merging the two hydrosystem components is a function of both surface and subsurface spatially distributed parameters. In the present study, we apply inverse modeling techniques to a synthetic catchment with connected surface and subsurface hydrosystems. The model is physically-based and implemented with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis software. On the basis of hydrograph measurement at the catchment outlet, we estimate parameters such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, overland and channel roughness coefficients. We compare maximum likelihood estimates (ML) with the parameter distributions obtained using the Bayesian statistical framework for spatially random fields provided by the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD). While ML estimates maximize the probability of observing the data and capture the global trend of the target variables, MAD focuses on obtaining a probability distribution for the random unknown parameters and the anchors are designed to capture local features. We check the consistency between the two approaches and evaluate the additional information provided by MAD on parameter distributions. We also assess the contribution of adding new types of measurements such as water table depth or soil conductivity to the reduction of parameter uncertainty.

  6. Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure

    OpenAIRE

    Van Lanen, H. A. J.; Wanders, N.; L. M. Tallaksen; A. F. Van Loon

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale hydrological drought studies have demonstrated spatial and temporal patterns in observed trends, and considerable difference exists among global hydrological models in their ability to reproduce these patterns. In this study a controlled modeling experiment has been set up to systematically explore the role of climate and physical catchment structure (soils and groundwater systems) to better understand underlying drought-generating mechanisms. Daily c...

  7. Hydrologic Partitioning of Evapotranspiration, Flows and Storage Across Landscapes and Climate Regimes in the Congo Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloysius, N. R.; Saiers, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    We use a distributed hydrological modeling framework to simulate the spatial and temporal variability of water-balance components in the Congo River basin (CRB) in Central Africa. In particular, our goal is to develop a predictive framework suitable for describing surface-water runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and terrestrial-water storage and the responses of these processes to changes in climate and land cover. Information on the region's climate, soil properties, land cover, and topography are used to develop the model. The CRB is divided into 1,600 sub basins. The model computes the partitioning of precipitation (P) into quick flow (Qs), and soil wetting (W = P - Qs) at the sub basin level. The soil wetting component is further partitioned into ET, base flow (Qb), and storage. We calibrate the model by minimizing an objective function defined as the sum-of-squared differences between calculated and measured monthly average total flows, base flows and water yield at 27 stream-gage locations within the CRB. Annual precipitation within the basin varies between 1,000 to over 1,800 mm. The central parts of the basin, where the tropical evergreen forests are located, receive the highest amount of precipitation, whereas the northern and southern headwater regions are dryer. The model calculations of the fraction of annual precipitation returned to the atmosphere as ET from the land surface, lakes and wetlands varies from 0.30 to 0.90 across the CRB. The Aridity Index (AI), defined as the ratio of annual precipitation to potential ET, varies from 0.50 to 1.20. Nearly ten percent of the CRB area, mostly the southeastern headwater region, falls under semi-arid to dry sub-humid category (AI water runoff arises from local-scale variability in vegetation and climate. Their understanding is important to quantify the hydrological response to climate and land cover changes, and to quantify the accessible water resources for human appropriation within the CRB in space and time.

  8. Surface and near-surface hydrological model of Olkiluoto island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the study was to develop a 3D-model that calculates the overall water balance components of Olkiluoto Island in the present-day condition utilizing the existing extensive data sets available. The model links the unsaturated and saturated soil water in the overburden and groundwater in bedrock to a continuous pressure system. The parameterization of land use and vegetation was done in such a way that the model can later on be used for description of the past evolution of the overburden hydrology at the site and overburden's hydrological evolution in the future. Measured groundwater level in overburden tubes, pressure heads in shallow bedrock holes, snow depth, soil temperature, frost depth and discharge measurements were used in assessing the performance of the models in the calibration period (01.05.2001- 31.12.2005). Computed groundwater level variation can be characterized by variables ΔHMEAS and ΔHCOMP, which are the difference between maximum and minimum measured and computed groundwater level value during the calibration period. Average ΔHMEAS for all tubes located in fine-textured till soil was 1.99 m and the corresponding computed value ΔHCOMP was 1.83 m. Average ΔHMEAS for all tubes located in sandy till soil was 2.12 m and the corresponding computed value ΔHCOMP was 1.93 m. The computed results indicate that in future studies it is necessary to divide the two most important soil types into several subclasses. In the present study the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was carried out through a parameter uncertainty framework known as GLUE. According to the uncertainty analysis the average yearly runoff was around 175 mm a-1 and 50 % confidence limits were 155 and 195 mm a-1. Measured average yearly runoff during the calibration period was 190 mm a-1. Average yearly evapotranspiration estimate was 310 mm a-1 and the 50 % confidence limits were 290 and 330 mm a-1. Average value for recharge through the bedrock system was 1.7 % from the

  9. CORDEX - a treasure trove of open climate data for hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Rourke, Eleanor; Nikulin, Grigory; Kjellström, Erik

    2015-04-01

    The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was initiated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to coordinate high-resolution Regional Climate Modelling and provide a set of regional climate projections for the majority of global land regions. Additionally making this data available, and importantly useable, to impact and adaptation communities was a fundamental goal. Phase I of CORDEX, which came to a close in November 2013, was successful in developing a framework in which scientists around the world adopted a common protocol to guide the development of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) and empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) projections, and the intercomparison of these projections, on each continent, with a particular focus on the African region. As a result of these intensive activities by groups across the globe more than 47000 quality checked open datasets are now freely available to users through the searchable Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The integration of this data into large scale hydrological modelling is in action within the Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute (SMHI) exemplifying the great potential use of this resource to the hydrological community. The aim of CORDEX Phase II is to enhance the dialogue with end-users so as to meet the growing demand for tailored regional climate information. Here, greater interaction between the CORDEX and hydrological modelling community can only prove hugely beneficial leading to greater protection for those vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate.

  10. The integrated effects of future climate and hydrologic uncertainty on sustainable flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinschneider, S.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Flood risk management performance is investigated within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modeling uncertainty to explore system robustness. The research question investigated is whether structural and hydrologic parameterization uncertainties are significant relative to other uncertainties such as climate change when considering water resources system performance. Two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model that preserves the water balance and a physically-based model that preserves both water and energy balances. In the conceptual model, parameter and structural uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modeling framework with an innovative error model. Mean climate changes and internal climate variability are explored using an ensemble of simulations from a stochastic weather generator. The approach presented can be used to quantify the sensitivity of flood protection adequacy to different sources of uncertainty in the climate and hydrologic system, enabling the identification of robust projects that maintain adequate performance despite the uncertainties. The method is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, where increased flooding over the past several decades has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy.

  11. An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin - Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing

    2016-06-01

    This is the second paper of a two-part series on introducing an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin in northern China. While the natural hydrological predictability in terms of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) is investigated in a companion paper, the added value from eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate forecast models with a grand ensemble of 99 members is assessed in this paper, with an implicit consideration of human-induced uncertainty in the hydrological models through a post-processing procedure. The forecast skill in terms of anomaly correlation (AC) for 2 m air temperature and precipitation does not necessarily decrease over leads but is dependent on the target month due to a strong seasonality for the climate over the Yellow River basin. As there is more diversity in the model performance for the temperature forecasts than the precipitation forecasts, the grand NMME ensemble mean forecast has consistently higher skill than the best single model up to 6 months for the temperature but up to 2 months for the precipitation. The NMME climate predictions are downscaled to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model and a global routing model regionalized over the Yellow River basin to produce forecasts of soil moisture, runoff and streamflow. And the NMME/VIC forecasts are compared with the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP/VIC) through 6-month hindcast experiments for each calendar month during 1982-2010. As verified by the VIC offline simulations, the NMME/VIC is comparable to the ESP/VIC for the soil moisture forecasts, and the former has higher skill than the latter only for the forecasts at long leads and for those initialized in the rainy season. The forecast skill for runoff is lower for both forecast approaches, but the added value from NMME/VIC is more obvious, with an increase of the average AC by 0.08-0.2. To compare with the observed

  12. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Jens Christian, Refsgaard

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to...... considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present...... influenced by the forcing GCM, the emissions scenario, and the choice of RCM. Here, we focus on the choice of RCM and the effect of increasing horizontal resolution. A comparison of HIRHAM4 output to seven similar RCMs showed that for precipitation the HIRHAM4 model is as representative as any of the RCMs in...

  13. Key aspects in representing the impact of irrigation on hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vrese, Philipp; Hagemann, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    The hydrological cycle is a key component in the climate system and its alteration presents a critical anthropogenic influence on climate change. The amount of solar radiation absorbed by water vapor within the atmosphere makes it the most important greenhouse gas. Furthermore strong positive climate feedbacks are presumed in connection with atmospheric water vapor; increasing temperatures could increase the global water vapor concentration by increasing the water vapor pressure at saturation. This in turn increases the amount of absorbed solar radiation and thus temperatures. It is often assumed that on the global scale the atmospheric input of water vapor attributed to irrigation is negligible in comparison to the naturally occurring water vapor. On the regional scale however many studies showed that irrigation has a strong impact on climate which will very likely increase in the future due to increasing demands and changing climate conditions. Furthermore it is plausible that the estimated impact of irrigation is not only depending on the scope (regional vs. global) but also on the design of a given study. Thus the key concern of this study was not only to estimate the impact of irrigation on a global scale, but rather to evaluate the importance of the way irrigation is represented in a model. On one hand, the effect of the representation of different irrigation characteristics was investigated e.g. the extent to which irrigation was applied to the vegetated/ non-vegetated part of a grid box. On the other hand it was investigated, whether the scheme used to couple the two model components plays an important role for the impact of irrigation on climate. For the investigation, several 20-year-AMIP-type experiments were conducted using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's earth system model, i.e. the general circulation ECHAM6 coupled to a version of the land-surface model JSBACH, which had been modified to represent irrigated areas. It was found that

  14. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  15. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs. PMID:26429363

  16. Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology and Temperature of Pacific Northwest Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, J. A.; Wu, H.; Su, F.; Lucotch, J.; Kimball, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.

    2010-12-01

    A regional scale hydrologic simulation scheme was developed to predict stream flow and stream temperature changes under historical (1979 to 1999) and future (to 2098) climate change scenarios (IPCC AR4) as they affect current and future patterns of freshwater salmon habitat and associated productivity of Pacific Northwest (PNW) river basins. An efficient simulation scheme was developed, including: a hierarchical Dominant River Tracing (DRT) algorithm for automated extraction and spatial upscaling of flow directions and river networks from fine scale hydrography; a Shuffled Complex Evolution method (SCE-UA) for automatic calibration of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model simulations, and a DRT-based routing scheme and coupled stream temperature model. An observation-based meteorological forcing data set was applied to simulate historical daily flow and temperature conditions for PNW basins. The gridded daily meteorology intputs included daily precipitation, maximum and minimum daily air temperature and wind speed gridded to 1/8 degree spatial resolution. Five (of 15 candidate) GCMs (i.e. MPI ECHAM5, GFDL CM2.1, MIROC3.2, UKMO HADCM3, CCCma CGCM3.1) were selected to provide surface meteorological forcings under projected (IPCC A1B and B1) climate scenarios on the basis of favorable model performance relative to historical weather station records. The GCM simulations were statistically bias corrected and spatially and temporally downscaled. The resulting model simulations show favorable agreement for daily flow (with mean Nash coefficient of 52% and annual relative error of 18% from validations at 12 gauges) and temperature (with mean Nash coefficient of 74%, absolute relative error of 1.30 °C and RMSE of 2.21 °C, psalmon will decrease in the PNW, with viable habitats shifting to northern, coastal and higher elevation portions of the domain.

  17. Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, Van A.F.; Laaha, G.

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of a drought are generally dependent on the severity of the hydrological drought event, which can be expressed by streamflow drought duration or deficit volume. For prediction and the selection of drought sensitive regions, it is crucial to know how streamflow drought severity relates to

  18. Development of a Simple Framework to Assess Hydrological Extremes using Solely Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulon, E.; Gagnon, P.; Rousseau, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme flow conditions such as droughts and floods are in general the direct consequences of short- to long-term weather/climate anomalies. For example, in southern Quebec, Canada, winter and summer 7-day low flows are due to summer and fall precipitations. Which prompts the question: is it possible to assess future extreme flow conditions from meteorological/climate indices or should we rely on the classical approach of using outputs of climate models as input to a hydrological model? The objective of this study is to assess six hydrological indices describing extreme flows at the watershed scale (Qmax, Qmin;7d, Qmin;30d for two seasons: winter and summer) using local climate indices without relying on the aforementioned classical approach. To establish the relationship between climate and hydrological indices, daily precipitations, minimum and maximum temperatures from 89 climate projections are used as inputs to a distributed hydrological model. River flows are simulated at the outlet of the Yamaska and Bécancour watersheds in Québec for the 1961-2100 periods. To identify the best predictors, hydrological indices are extracted from the flow series, and climate indices are computed for different time intervals (from a day up to four years). The difference between four-month, cumulative, climatic demand (P-ETP) explains 69% of the 7-day summer low flow during the calibration process. For both watersheds, preliminary findings indicate that the selected indices explain, on average, 38 and 60% of the variability of high- and low-flow indices, respectively. Overall, the results clearly illustrate that the change in the hydrological indices can be detected through the concurrent trends in the climate indices. The use of many climate projections ensures the relationships are not simulation-dependent and shows summer events are particularly at risk with increasing high flows and decreasing low flows. The development of a simple predictive tool to assess the impact of

  19. Hydrological and climatic uncertainties associated with modeling the impact of climate change on water resources of small Mediterranean coastal rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lespinas, Franck; Ludwig, Wolfgang; Heussner, Serge

    2014-04-01

    This paper investigates the uncertainties associated with using regional climate models and one hydrological model calibrated from non-stationary hydroclimatic time series to simulate future water resources of six Mediterranean French coastal river basins. First, a conceptual hydrological model (the GR2M model) was implemented in order to reproduce the observed river discharge regimes. Climatic scenarios were then constructed from a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) outputs and fed into the hydrological model in order to produce water discharge scenarios for the 2071-2100 period. At last, an assessment of uncertainties associated with the hydrological scenarios is given. With respect to the 1961-1990 period, RCMs project a mean annual temperature increase of 4.3-4.5 °C (3.1-3.2 °C) under the IPCC A2 (B2) scenario. Precipitation changes, although more variable, indicate a decrease between -10% and -15.6% for A2 and between -6.1% and -11.6% for B2. As a result, the GR2M model simulates a general water discharge decrease between -26% (-14%) and -54% (-41%) for the A2 (B2) scenario, depending on the basin of interest. Sensitivity tests on the hydrological modelling revealed that the hydrological scenarios are sensitive to the choice of the PE formulation, although this climatic input is negligible in the model calibration. Also, a slight but significant drift between the modelled and observed time series was detected for most basins, indicating that the hydrological model fails to adapt to non-stationary discharge conditions. A simple correction method based on a dynamical parametrization of one model parameter with temperature data considerably reduces the model drift in half of the investigated basins. When extrapolated this new parametrization to the future climate scenarios, decrease of water discharge is found to be twice as great as estimated from the standard parametrization. Our results suggest that the uncertainties stemming from hydrological models with

  20. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. ...

  1. Results from a full coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model for a Danish catchment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Refsgaard, J.C.; Drews, Martin;

    2014-01-01

    A major challenge in the emerging research field of coupling of existing regional climate models (RCMs) and hydrology/land-surface models is the computational interaction between the models. Here we present results from a full two-way coupling of the HIRHAM RCM over a 4000 km × 2800 km domain at 11...

  2. Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

  3. Impacts of climate change on prioritizing conservation areas of hydrological ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Wan Yu; Lin, Yu Pin

    2015-04-01

    Ecosystem services (ESs) including hydrological services play important roles in our daily life and provide a lot of benefits for human beings from ecological systems. The systems and their services may be threatened by climate change from global to local scales. We herein developed a systematic approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological ecosystem services, such as water yield, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) retention, and soil retention in a watershed in Northern Taiwan. We first used an ecosystem service evaluation model, InVEST, to estimate the amount and spatial patterns of annual and monthly hydrological ecosystem services under historical weather data, and different climate change scenarios based on five GMSs. The monthly and annual spatiotemporal variations of the ESs were analyzed in this study. Finally, the multiple estimated ESs were considered as the protection conservation targets and regarded as the input data of the systematic conservation planning software, Zonation, to systematically prioritize reserve areas of the ESs under the climate change scenarios. The ES estimation results indicated that the increasing rainfall in wet season leads to the higher water yield and results in the higher sediment and nutrient export indirectly. The Zonation successfully fielded conservation priorities of the ESs. The conservation priorities of the ESs significantly varied spatially and monthly under the climate change scenarios. The ESs results also indicated that the areas where ESs values and conservation priorities with low resilience under climate change should be considered as high priority protected area to ensure the hydrological services in future. Our proposed approach is a novel systematic approach which can be applied to assess impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal variations of ESs as well as prioritize protected area of the ESs under various climate change scenarios. Keyword: climate change, ecosystem service

  4. Changes in the hydrologic cycle of the central U.S. since 1984: The relative roles of multiple climatic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, B.; Lenters, J. D.

    2012-12-01

    The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in hydrologically significant climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem / land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is employed in this study, forced by observed climatic inputs for the period 1984-2007. The results generally show an acceleration of the water cycle in the Upper Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, and Great Lakes basins, but with significant seasonal and spatial complexity. Over the past 24 years, evapotranspiration (ET) has increased in most regions and most seasons, particularly during the fall, which is also a time of pronounced solar brightening. Trends in runoff are characterized by distinct spatial and seasonal variations. Since recent warming has led to a greater fraction of winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, spring runoff in some snow-dominated regions (such as the northern Great Lakes) has declined significantly since 1984. Other regions, however, such as the northern Missouri basin, show large increases in runoff throughout all seasons, primarily as a result of increased precipitation. Sensitivity experiments using the Agro-IBIS model show that the aforementioned hydrologic responses to climate change are highly dependent on the regional availability of water and energy. In the western half of the central U.S., for example (a water-limited region), changes in precipitation dominate the ET trend, while in the energy

  5. Global impacts of hydrological and climatic extremes on vegetation (SAT-EX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Eck, Christel Melissa; Waegeman, Willem; Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Verhoest, Niko; Depoorter, Mathieu; Regnier, Pierre; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Dolman, A. Johannes; de Jeu, Richard; Dorigo, Wouter; Miralles, Diego G.

    2015-04-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, extreme precipitation events and heatwaves. Recent studies have underlined the critical impacts of these extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, particularly on the dynamics of vegetation. Yet, the latest IPCC report reveals large uncertainties in extremes trends and biomass impacts. Conversely, new advances in satellite Earth observation have led to the recent development of consistent global historical records of crucial environmental and climatic variables - like surface soil moisture, soil water storage, terrestrial evaporation or vegetation water content. These datasets provide alternative means to unravel the processes driving past climate extremes, uncover the spatiotemporal scales at which these extremes operate and understand their impact on terrestrial biomass. The SAT-EX project (funded by BELSPO) recently raised with the purpose of exploring the potential of the state-of-art remote sensing datasets to study the causes and consequences of the spatiotemporal changes in wet, dry and warm spells over the past three decades. Core methodologies involve the analysis of satellite-based climate extreme indices and vegetation characteristics through a novel combination of machine learning methods, fingerprint identification approaches, and spatio-temporal clustering. First results will show how droughts, heatwaves and extreme rain events have changed in frequency and intensity since the '80s, and attribute these changes to on-going processes like the widening of the tropical belt, ocean-atmospheric teleconnections, the intensification of land-atmospheric feedbacks or the overall rise in greenhouse gasses (and expected acceleration of the hydrological cycle). A specific focus will be given on large-scale vegetation response to climate extremes throughout our analyses. Further phases in the project will involve the evaluation of IPCC Earth System Models on the basis of their skill to

  6. The integrated hydrologic and societal impacts of a warming climate in interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Charles E., Jr.

    In this dissertation, interdisciplinary research methods were used to examine how changes in hydrology associated with climate affect Alaskans. Partnerships were established with residents of Fairbanks and Tanana to develop scientific investigations relevant to rural Alaskans. In chapter 2, local knowledge was incorporated into scientific models to identify a social-ecological threshold used to model potential driftwood harvest from the Yukon River. Anecdotal evidence and subsistence calendar records were combined with scientific data to model the harvest rates of driftwood. Modeling results estimate that between 1980 and 2010 hydrologic factors alone were responsible for a 29% decrease in the annual wood harvest, which approximately balanced a 23% reduction in wood demand due to a decline in number of households. The community's installation of wood-fired boilers in 2007 created a threshold increase (76%) in wood demand that is not met by driftwood harvest. Modeling of climatic scenarios illustrates that increased hydrologic variability decreases driftwood harvest and increases the financial or temporal costs for subsistence users. In chapter 3, increased groundwater flow related to permafrost degradation was hypothesized to be affect river ice thickness in sloughs of the Tanana River. A physically-based, numerical model was developed to examine the importance of permafrost degradation in explaining unfrozen river conditions in the winter. Results indicated that ice melt is amplified by increasing groundwater upwelling rates, groundwater temperatures, and snowfall. Modeling results also suggest that permafrost degradation could be a valid explanation of the phenomenon, but does not address the potential drivers (e.g. warming climate, forest fire, etc.) of the permafrost warming. In chapter 4, remote sensing techniques were hypothesized to be useful for mapping dangerous ice conditions on the Tanana River in interior Alaska. Unsupervised classification of high

  7. New lessons on the Sudd hydrology learned from remote sensing and climate modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite its local and regional importance, hydro-meteorological data on the Sudd (one of Africa's largest wetlands is very scanty. This is due to the physical and political situation of this area of Sudan. The areal size of the wetland, the evaporation rate, and the influence on the micro and meso climate are still unresolved questions of the Sudd hydrology. The evaporation flux from the Sudd wetland has been estimated using thermal infrared remote sensing data and a parameterization of the surface energy balance (SEBAL model. It is concluded that the actual spatially averaged evaporation from the Sudd wetland over 3 years of different hydrometeorological characteristics varies between 1460 and 1935 mm/yr. This is substantially less than open water evaporation. The wetland area appears to be 70% larger than previously assumed when the Sudd was considered as an open water body. The temporal analysis of the Sudd evaporation demonstrated that the variation of the atmospheric demand in combination with the inter-annual fluctuation of the groundwater table results into a quasi-constant evaporation rate in the Sudd, while open water evaporation depicts a clear seasonal variability. The groundwater table characterizes a distinct seasonality, confirming that substantial parts of the Sudd are seasonal swamps. The new set of spatially distributed evaporation parameters from remote sensing form an important dataset for calibrating a regional climate model enclosing the Nile Basin. The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO provides an insight not only into the temporal evolution of the hydro-climatological parameters, but also into the land surface climate interactions and embedded feedbacks. The impact of the flooding of the Sudd on the Nile hydroclimatology has been analysed by simulating two land surface scenarios (with and without the Sudd wetland. The paper presents some of the model results addressing the Sudd's influence on rainfall, evaporation

  8. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios consist of ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; their respective temperature and precipitation deltas are used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest is assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA. Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland are analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51% and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area. The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as evaporation or soil moisture is concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchment with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact studies is the climate scenario, though, and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e. a humid, mid

  9. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climate and land cover are principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevad...

  10. Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

    2016-04-01

    Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some

  11. US FRESHWATER RESOURCES IN THE COMING DECADES: AN INTEGRATED CLIMATE-HYDROLOGIC MODELING STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The outcome is a dynamically and nationally consistent assessment of the range of potential changes in the hydrologic states (snow, soil moisture, groundwater level, river flow, wetland extent) and fluxes (precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, water table recha...

  12. Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin

    OpenAIRE

    Masood, M.; P. J.-F. Yeh; Hanasaki, N.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-01-01

    The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basin and may ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on the basin-scale hydrology by using well-calibrated hydrologic mode...

  13. Impact of lake-river connectivity and interflow on the Canadian RCM simulated regional climate and hydrology for Northeast Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.

    2016-04-01

    Lakes affect regional climate by modulating surface albedo, surface energy, and moisture budgets. This is especially important for regions such as Northeast Canada with approximately 10 % of the landmass covered by lakes, wetlands and rivers. From the regional hydrology perspective, interactions between lakes and rivers are important as streamflow patterns can be significantly modified by lake storage, and similarly lake levels can be modified by streamflows. In this study, using a suite of experiments performed with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA40 reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries for the 1979-2010 period, lake-river-atmosphere interactions and their impact on the regional climate/hydrology of north-east Canada are assessed. In these CRCM5 simulations, a one-dimensional lake model represents lakes, while the rivers are modeled using a distributed routing scheme, and one of the simulations includes interflow, i.e. lateral flow of water in the soil layers. Comparison of CRCM5 simulations with and without lakes suggests significant differences in winter/summer precipitation and winter temperature for the study region. CRCM5 simulations performed with and without lake-river interactions suggest improved representation of streamflows when lake storage and routing are taken into account. Adding the interflow process leads to increased streamflows during summer and fall seasons for the majority of the rivers, causing modest changes to land-atmosphere interactions via modified soil moisture. The impact of interflow on streamflow, obtained in this study, is comparable to the impact of lake-atmosphere interactions on streamflows. This study clearly demonstrates the need for realistic representation of lake-river interactions in regional climate models for realistic simulation of regional hydrology, particularly streamflows.

  14. Improving Predictions and Management of Hydrological Extremes through Climate Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Hurk, Bart; Wijngaard, Janet; Pappenberger, Florian; Bouwer, Laurens; Weerts, Albrecht; Buontempo, Carlo; Doescher, Ralf; Manez, Maria; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Hananel, Cedric; Ercin, Ertug; Hunink, Johannes; Klein, Bastian; Pouget, Laurent; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    The EU Roadmap on Climate Services can be seen as a result of convergence between the society's call for "actionable research", and the climate research community providing tailored data, information and knowledge. However, although weather and climate have clearly distinct definitions, a strong link between weather and climate services exists that is not explored extensively. Stakeholders being interviewed in the context of the Roadmap consider climate as a far distant long term feature that is difficult to consider in present-day decision taking, which is dominated by daily experience with handling extreme events. It is argued that this experience is a rich source of inspiration to increase society's resilience to an unknown future. A newly started European research project, IMPREX, is built on the notion that "experience in managing current day weather extremes is the best learning school to anticipate consequences of future climate". This paper illustrates possible ways to increase the link between information and services addressing weather and climate time scales by discussing the underlying concepts of IMPREX and its expected outcome.

  15. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  16. A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions

    OpenAIRE

    M. H. J. van Huijgevoort; Hazenberg, P.; H. A. J. van Lanen; R. Uijlenhoet

    2012-01-01

    The identification of hydrological drought at global scale has received considerable attention during the last decade. However, climate-induced variation in runoff across the world makes such analyses rather complicated. This especially holds for the drier regions of the world (both cold and warm), where for a considerable period of time, zero runoff can be observed. In the current paper, we present a method that enables to identify drought at global scale across climate regimes in a consiste...

  17. Occurrence of Climate Variability and Change Within the Hydrological Time Series - A Statistical Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Mitosek, H.T.

    1992-01-01

    The paper summarizes results of Project A.2 "Analyzing Long-Time Series of Hydrological Data and Indices with Respect to Climate Variability and Change" as one component of the World Climate Program-Water (WCP-WATER). In collaboration with IIASA, an algorithm developed by WMO and the associated program called TIMESER 3 has been set up at the Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The computations used monthly data supplied by the Global Runoff Data Centre. Additionally, ev...

  18. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    OpenAIRE

    Mondal, A.; P. P. Mujumdar

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand ...

  19. Hydrology, element budgets, acidification, nutrient N in a climate change perspective for the northern forest region

    OpenAIRE

    Lundin L

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to discuss the potential impact of climate change on element budgets and acidity in northern forest ecosystems. A catchment approach should provide the most appropriate unit and to be investigated in several spatial scales. Future monitoring has also to address tree composition, forestry activities, follow the soil organic matter storage and include changes in hydrology with episodic extremes.

  20. A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Hazenberg, P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2012-01-01

    The identification of hydrological drought at global scale has received considerable attention during the last decade. However, climate-induced variation in runoff across the world makes such analyses rather complicated. This especially holds for the drier regions of the world (both cold and warm),

  1. Regional scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laymon, Charles; Crosson, William

    1995-01-01

    Through the CaPE Hydrometeorology Project, we have developed an understanding of some of the unique data quality issues involved in assimilating data of disparate types for regional-scale hydrologic modeling within a GIS framework. Among others, the issues addressed here include the development of adequate validation of the surface water budget, implementation of the STATSGO soil data set, and implementation of a remote sensing-derived landcover data set to account for surface heterogeneity. A model of land surface processes has been developed and used in studies of the sensitivity of surface fluxes and runoff to soil and landcover characterization. Results of these experiments have raised many questions about how to treat the scale-dependence of land surface-atmosphere interactions on spatial and temporal variability. In light of these questions, additional modifications are being considered for the Marshall Land Surface Processes Model. It is anticipated that these techniques can be tested and applied in conjunction with GCIP activities over regional scales.

  2. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

    2012-06-01

    Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated

  3. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. E. V. van Walsum

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI. The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation

  4. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  5. Modeling the Climate and Hydrological Controls of the Expansion of an Invasive Grass Over Southern Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, A.; Niu, G.; Zeng, X.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has an effect on the resilience of ecosystems and the occurrence of ecological perturbations (e.g. spread of invasive species, wildfires). Changes in vegetation in turn can interrupt regional scale climate patterns and alter the spatial and temporal propagation of ecological disturbances. Understanding the controls of vegetation change are essential for predicting future changes, and for setting conservation and restoration targets. Vegetation change in transition zones between ecological regions is a significant indicator of future shifts in the composition of neighboring plant communities. The Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed is in a grassland-shrubland transition zone between the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Desert in Southern Arizona. During the past decade, at some sites the cover of the invasive Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) drastically increased and the abundance of native vegetation decreased, causing a major decline in biodiversity. Focusing on a catchment scale (Kendall Site), we used an individual based vegetation model (ECOTONE) and a coupled vegetation-3D surface/subsurface hydrology model (ECOTONE-CATHY) to simulate vegetation change. We set up the models with soil and climatological data (NLDAS and AmeriFlux), incorporated initial conditions of species and biomass distribution and species parameters for the site. Using ECOTONE we tested our hypothesis that a combination of dry years and subsequent wet period caused Lehmann lovegass to have advantage over the natives. In ECOTONE species composition and species distribution of plant communities arise from dynamic interactions of individual plants with species specific traits through intra- and interspecific competition for resources (H2O, nitrogen) and their interaction with the environment (precipitation and temperature). Our results indicate that the competitive advantage of Lehmann lovegrass stems from its ability to withstand dryer conditions during establishment and due to

  6. A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. J. van Huijgevoort

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The identification of hydrological drought at global scale has received considerable attention during the last decade. However, climate-induced variation in runoff across the world makes such analyses rather complicated. This especially holds for the drier regions of the world (both cold and warm, where, for a considerable period of time, zero runoff can be observed. In the current paper, we present a method that enables to identify drought at global scale across climate regimes in a consistent manner. The method combines the characteristics of the classical variable threshold level method that is best applicable in regions with non-zero runoff most of the time, and the consecutive dry days (period method that is better suited for areas where zero runoff occurs. The newly presented method allows a drought in periods with runoff to continue in the following period without runoff. The method is demonstrated by identifying droughts from discharge observations of four rivers situated within different climate regimes, as well as from simulated runoff data at global scale obtained from an ensemble of five different land surface models. The identified drought events obtained by the new approach are compared to those resulting from application of the variable threshold level method or the consecutive dry period method separately. Results show that, in general, for drier regions, the threshold level method overestimates drought duration, because zero runoff periods are included in a drought, according to the definition used within this method. The consecutive dry period method underestimates drought occurrence, since it cannot identify droughts for periods with runoff. The developed method especially shows its relevance in transitional areas, because, in wetter regions, results are identical to the classical threshold level method. By combining both methods, the new method is able to identify single drought events that occur during positive and zero

  7. A generic method for hydrological drought identification across different climate regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. J. van Huijgevoort

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The identification of hydrological drought at global scale has received considerable attention during the last decade. However, climate-induced variation in runoff across the world makes such analyses rather complicated. This especially holds for the drier regions of the world (both cold and warm, where for a considerable period of time, zero runoff can be observed. In the current paper, we present a method that enables to identify drought at global scale across climate regimes in a consistent manner. The method combines the characteristics of the classical variable threshold level method that is best applicable in regions with non zero runoff most of the time, and the consecutive dry days (period method that is better suited for areas where zero runoff occurs. The newly presented method allows a drought in periods with runoff to continue in the following period without runoff. The method was demonstrated by identifying droughts from discharge observations of four rivers situated within different climate regimes, as well as from simulated runoff data at global scale obtained from an ensemble of five different land surface models. The identified drought events obtained by the new approach were compared to those resulting from application of the variable threshold level method or the consecutive dry period method separately. Results show that, in general, for drier regions, the threshold level method overestimates drought duration, because zero runoff periods were included in a drought, according to the definition used within this method. The consecutive dry period method underestimates drought occurrence, since it cannot identify droughts for periods with runoff. The developed method especially shows its relevance in transitional areas, because in wetter regions, results were identical to the classical threshold level method. By combining both methods, the new method is able to identify single drought events that occur during positive and zero

  8. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States : recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study reviewed previous and projected changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States. While climatic warming and increases in precipitation, snow, and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last 100 years, the most pronounced changes have occurred since 1970. However, trends in climatic and hydrological variables have differed both spatially and temporally in different regions. Decadal-scale climatic variations have also altered long-term trends. Climate models predict continued increases in both temperature and precipitation over the next century. Increases in growing season length are expected to increase evapotranspiration and the frequency of droughts. An increase in the frequency of droughts is also expected to increase the risk of fires and other disturbances. Forest productivity and maple syrup production will be impacted, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration will be diminished. It was concluded that climate and hydrological changes will have a profound impact on forest structure, composition and ecological functioning. 131 refs., 5 figs

  9. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes and patterns in the Spree River catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hölzel, H.; Gädeke, A.; Koch, H.; Grünewald, U.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays, a successful river catchment planning and management should consider climate change impacts on hydrological processes and patterns. This is of particular interest for stakeholders in the Spree River catchment, which is significantly affected by long term lignite mining activities. Furthermore, the consideration of climate change impacts is essential for the development of climate change adaptation strategies, e.g. land use change. Therefore, the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin (INKA BB), funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), was launched to reveal among others the impact of climate change on the hydrology at the regional scale. To achieve this, simulations with help of the process-based, spatially distributed Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM-ETH) were conducted. In a first step, a model for the Spree River catchment (up to gauge Leibsch, 4500 km2) was set up, calibrated (from 1998 to 2002), and validated (from 2002 to 2006) on measured discharge for a headwater sub-catchment (135 km2) which discharge is only minor affected by water management. To consider climate change impacts, results of the STAtistical Regional climate model STAR were used as meteorological input for hydrological modeling in a second step. From 100 available STAR-realizations, three were chosen which are closest to the median, the 10%-, and 90%-percentile of the entire number of realizations and hereafter called as moderate, dry, and wet scenario. The model period of the three scenarios spans over 10 years (from 2045 to 2054) and was compared to a 30 year period in the past (from 1961 to 1990) where measurements were used as climate input parameters (reference period). The model results show reduced precipitation (except the wet scenario), increased evapotranspiration and consequently reduced runoff in the scenarios compared to the reference period. Hence, the climate water budget decreases and hydrological patterns e

  10. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  11. Projecting future climate change effects on the extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin, China

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, F.; San, Y. Y.; Li, Y.; Ma, M.; Ren, L.; Zhao, C; Liu, Y; Yang, X.; Jiang, S.; H Shen

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a framework to project the potential future climate change impacts on extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin in North China is presented. This framework includes a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from a regional climate model for historical streamflow simulations and future streamflow projections, and models for univariate drought assessment and copula-based bivariate drought analysis. It is projected by the univa...

  12. Eco-hydrological and climatic drivers of fuel moisture dynamics in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, Petter; Duff, Thomas; Baillie, Craig; Sheridan, Gary

    2016-04-01

    Fuel moisture is a critical parameter for predicting fire behaviour and for planning prescribed burning operations. Moisture content in fuels located on or near the forest floor is particularly important because this fuel source 1) can comprise a large component of the overall fuel load, 2) can have a strong impact on fire spread, and 3) it can in many cases be effectively managed with prescribed burning. Being able to predict surface fuel moisture content is therefore an important research topic. Moisture dynamics in surface fuel are a function of microclimate above the litter layer, rainfall, interception, soil moisture and the hydraulic properties of the fuel itself. Process-based fuel moisture models include these factors in their predictions. However, the data needed to parametrise and test such models at landscape scales are often lacking. The relative importance of various components of the water balance in the litter layer is therefore unknown. In this research we seek to quantify how climate, vegetation and eco-hydrological feedback contribute to variation in net radiation and potential evaporation at the forest floor. Research sites were established at 16 locations in eucalyptus forests in south-east Australia with variable elevation, solar exposure, and drainage areas. Forests ranged from open woodland to tall temperate forests. At these sites we measured solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, throughfall, litter moisture, soil moisture, and litter temperature. Forest structure was characterised using hemispherical photos. Using these data on microclimate and vegetation structure we develop and parametrise a Penman-Monteith model of potential evaporation on the forest floor at daily timescales. Using this model of potential evaporation alongside landscape-scale information on the long term water and energy balance we quantify the effects of topography, long-term climate and eco-hydrological feedback on the energy and water balance at the

  13. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomer, M.D.; Schilling, K.E.

    2009-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios (p watersheds (p watersheds, agricultural changes were associated with ecohydrologic shifts that affected timing and significance, but not direction, of these trends. Thus, an ecohydrologic concept derived from small-watershed research, when regionally applied, suggests climate change has increased discharge from Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  14. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

    2011-01-01

    HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM...... output, while the other consisted of distribution-based scaling (DBS) of the RCM output. Distributionbased scaling resulted in RCM control period data closely approaching the observed climate data and thereby considerably improved the simulation of recharge and stream discharges. When comparing the...

  15. Response of hydrological processes to climate change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, X.; Cui, X.; Yu, J.; Sun, W.

    2015-05-01

    According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, the temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in the future. As a sensitive region to climate change, hydrological process in the middle reaches of the Yellow River will be significantly affected by climate change. In this study, water resources change in the future for a typical basin there: Lushi basin is assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Downscaled ensemble output from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s was input to SWAT as the regional climate change scenario. The prediction shows that ET of this basin increases in winter and spring, and decreases in summer and autumn, and the streamflow increases throughout the year. The increased streamflow will probably improve the water demand guarantee and be conducive to crop growth in winter and spring, and may improve the flood risk in summer.

  16. Relating climate change signals and physiographic catchment properties to clustered hydrological response types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to reduce a comprehensive set of 186 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland to fewer response types to climate change and name sensitive regions as well as catchment characteristics that govern hydrological change. We classified the hydrological responses of our study catchments through an agglomerative-hierarchical cluster analysis, and we related the dominant explanatory variables, i.e. the determining catchment properties and climate change signals, to the catchments' hydrological responses by means of redundancy analysis. All clusters except for one exhibit clearly decreasing summer runoff and increasing winter runoff. This seasonal shift was observed for the near future period (2025–2046 but is particularly obvious in the far future period (2074–2095. Within a certain elevation range (between 1000 and 2500 m a.s.l., the hydrological change is basically a function of elevation because the latter governs the dominant hydro-climatological processes associated with temperature, e.g. the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation and snow melt processes. For catchments below the stated range, hydrological change is mainly a function of precipitation change, which is not as pronounced as the temperature signal is. Future impact studies in Switzerland can be conducted on a reduced sample of catchments representing the sensitive regions or covering a range of altitudes.

  17. Comparison of climate datasets for lumped hydrological modeling over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essou, Gilles R. C.; Arsenault, Richard; Brissette, François P.

    2016-06-01

    Climate data measured by weather stations are crucially important and regularly used in hydrologic modeling. However, they are not always available due to the low spatial density and short record history of many station networks. To overcome these limitations, gridded datasets have become increasingly available. They have excellent continuous spatial coverage and no missing data. However, these datasets are usually interpolated using station data, with little new information besides elevation. Furthermore, minimal validation has been done on most of these datasets. This study compares three such datasets covering the continental United States to evaluate their differences and their impact on lumped hydrological modeling. Three daily time step gridded datasets with resolutions varying between 0.25° and 1 km were used in this study - Santa-Clara, Daymet and CPC. The hydrological modeling evaluation of these datasets was performed over 424 basins from the MOPEX database. Results show that there are significant differences between the datasets, even though they were essentially all interpolated from almost the same climate databases. Despite those differences, the hydrological model used in this study was able to perform equally well after a specific calibration to each dataset. While there were a few exceptions, by and large, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency metrics obtained in validation were not statistically different from one database to the other for most basins. It appears that there are no reasons to favor one dataset versus another for lumped hydrological modeling, and that these datasets perform just as well as using the original station data.

  18. A STUDY OF THE REFERENCE CLIMATIC PARAMETERS AND THEIR IMPACT UPON THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME. CASE STUDY: IALOMITA HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Borcan

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides an analysis for the evolution and spatio-temporal variation of two climatic parameters (precipitation and evapotranspiration and one hydrological parameter (the flown water volume over a common period of time (1970-2007 in Ialomita Hydrographical Basin which has been recently affected by extended periods of drought. In achieving this aim we started our analysis from the equation of the water balance in a large hydrographical basin over a long period of time. Among the elements of this equation the amount of rainfall (precipitation and evapotranspiration are further called the reference climatic parameters since they are the ones that influence the volume of the surface run-off. The evolution of the above mentioned parameters has been accomplished by taking into account the recorded data from 6 meteorological and hydrological posts that can be considered characteristic for Ialomita River Basin. They have been used to identify the tendency of these reference climatic parameters and establish their influence upon the hydrological regime. The parallel study of these three parameters may offer valuable data upon their tight connection in a regional context.We often use the air temperature as an indicator of how comfortable we will feel when we are involved in sports or other physical activities. However, the air temperature is only one factor in the assessment of thermal stress. Human thermal comfort depends on environmental and personal factors. The four environmental factors are: airflow (wind, air temperature, air humidity, and radiation from the sun and nearby hot surfaces. The personal factors are the clothing being worn and the person's level of physical activity.

  19. Phosphorus dynamics in lowland streams as a response to climatic, hydrological and agricultural land use gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyenola, G.; Meerhoff, M.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Graeber, D.; Fosalba, C.; Vidal, N.; Mazzeo, N.; Ovesen, N. B.; Jeppesen, E.; Kronvang, B.

    2015-03-01

    Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors for determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from agricultural fields to freshwaters. In this study, we evaluated the effect of agricultural intensification on the concentrations, dynamics and export of phosphorus (P) in streams in two contrasting climate and hydrological regimes (temperate Denmark and subtropical Uruguay). We applied two alternative nutrient sampling programmes (high frequency composite sampling and low frequency instantaneous-grab sampling) and three alternative methods to estimate exported P from the catchments. A source apportionment model was applied to evaluate the contribution derived from point and diffuse sources in all four catchments studied. Climatic and hydrological characteristics of catchments expressed as flow responsiveness (flashiness), exerted control on catchment and stream TP dynamics, having consequences that were more significant than the outcome of different TP monitoring and export estimation strategies. The impact of intensification of agriculture differed between the two contrasting climate zones. Intensification had a significant impact on subtropical climate with much higher total (as high as 4436 μg P L-1), particulate, dissolved and reactive soluble P concentrations and higher P export (as high as 5.20 kg P ha-1 year-1). However, we did not find an increased contribution of particulate P to total P as consequence of higher stream flashiness and intensification of agriculture. The high P concentrations at low flow and predominance of dissolved P in subtropical streams actually exacerbate the environmental and sanitary risks associated with eutrophication. In the other hand, temperate intensively farmed stream had lower TP than extensively farmed stream. Our results suggest that the lack of environmental regulations of agricultural production has more severe consequences on water quality, than climatic and hydrological differences between the analysed

  20. Eocene prevalence of monsoon-like climate over eastern China reflected by hydrological dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dehai; Lu, Shicong; Han, Shuang; Sun, Xiaoyan; Quan, Cheng

    2013-01-01

    Hydrological dynamics of sedimentary basins are essential for understanding regional climatic pattern in the geological past. In previous qualitative studies lithologically depending on the occurrence of featured sedimentary rocks, the Eocene climate of China had been subdivided into three latitudinal zones, with one subtropical high-controlled arid zone throughout middle China, and two humid zones respectively in the north and south. However, recent advances on mammalian fauna distribution, plant fossil-based quantitative paleoclimatic reconstruction, and modeling experiment jointly suggest that the relatively humid monsoonal climate might have prevailed over the territory. Here we examine and compare sedimentary sequences of 10 Eocene sections across eastern China, and hence the lake level fluctuations, to discuss the nature of climate type. Our results show that, instead of the categorically zonal pattern, the hydroclimate dynamics is intensified landward. This is demonstrated by the fact that, in contrast to the wide developed coal layers around the periphery, evaporites are growingly occurred endocentrically to the central part of middle China. However, although we have had assumed that all evaporites are indicator of extreme aridity, the highly oscillated climate in the central part of middle China was humid in the majority of the Eocene, distinct from permanent arid as seen in deserts or steppe along modern horse latitude. From the upcountry distribution pattern of the Eocene hydrological dynamics, it appears that the relatively dry climate in central China was caused by the impact of continentality or rain shadow effect under monsoonal, or monsoon-like climate.

  1. Functional integrity of freshwater forested wetlands, hydrologic alteration, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.; Souter, Nicholas J.;

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will challenge managers to balance the freshwater needs of humans and wetlands. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that most regions of the world will be exposed to higher temperatures, CO2, and more erratic precipitation, with some regions likely to have alternating episodes of intense flooding and mega-drought. Coastal areas will be exposed to more frequent saltwater inundation as sea levels rise. Local land managers desperately need intra-regional climate information for site-specific planning, management, and restoration activities. Managers will be challenged to deliver freshwater to floodplains during climate change-induced drought, particularly within hydrologically altered and developed landscapes. Assessment of forest health, both by field and remote sensing techniques, will be essential to signal the need for hydrologic remediation. Studies of the utility of the release of freshwater to remediate stressed forested floodplains along the Murray and Mississippi Rivers suggest that brief episodes of freshwater remediation for trees can have positive health benefits for these forests. The challenges of climate change in forests of the developing world will be considered using the Tonle Sap of Cambodia as an example. With little ecological knowledge of the impacts, managing climate change will add to environmental problems already faced in the developing world with new river engineering projects. These emerging approaches to remediate stressed trees will be of utmost importance for managing worldwide floodplain forests with predicted climate changes.

  2. Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Peruvian Amazon-Andes basin

    OpenAIRE

    Casimiro, W. S. L.; Labat, D.; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Ardoin Bardin, Sandra

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we propose an investigation of the modifications of the hydrological response of two Peruvian AmazonasAndes basins in relationship with the modifications of the precipitation and evapotranspiration rates inferred by the IPCC. These two basins integrate around 10% of the total area of the Amazonian basin. These estimations are based on the application of two monthly hydrological models, GR2M and MWB3, and the climatic projections come from BCM2, CSMK3 and MIHR models for A1B a...

  3. Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling in southern Britain

    OpenAIRE

    Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Crooks, Sue; Bell, Vicky

    2014-01-01

    Previous work driving hydrological models directly with data from regional climate models (RCMs) used data on an approximately 25x25km grid, which generally required some form of further downscaling before use by hydrological models. Recently, higher resolution data have become available from a NERC Changing Water Cycle project, CONVEX. As part of that project the Met Office Hadley Centre has run a very high resolution (1.5km) RCM, nested in a 12km RCM driven by ERA-Interim boundary condition...

  4. Hydrologic regime alteration of a Mediterranean catchment under climate change projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Herrmann, Frank; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2014-05-01

    Most of the climate models projections for the Mediterranean basin have showed that the region will likely to experience a general tendency towards drier climate conditions with decreases in total precipitation, increases in temperature, alterations in the rainfall extreme events and droughts frequency (IPCC, 2007; Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; López-Moreno et al., 2011). The region is already suffering from water resources scarcity and vulnerability which are expected to amplify in the next century (Ludwig et al., 2011; Schneider et al., 2013). Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of Mediterranean catchments is with a major concern not only to scientist but also to water resources policy makers and general public. However, most of the climate change impact studies focus on the flow regime on global or regional scale rather than on the catchment scale which is more useful and more appropriate to guide practical mitigation and adaptation policy. This is because hydro-climate modeling at the local scale is confronted to the variability in climate, topography, geology, lack of observations and anthropogenic activities within the catchment. Furthermore, it is well recognized that hydrological and climate models forecasts are always affected with uncertainty making the assessment of climate change impact on Mediterranean catchment hydrology more challenging. This work aims to assess the impact of climate change on a Mediterranean catchment located in North Africa (the Chiba catchment in northeast Tunisia) through a conjunctive use of physically based hydrological model (SWAT) driven with four climate models*. Quantification of the impact of climate change has been conducted by means of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (Richter et al., 1996) which are also ecologically meaningful. By comparing changes in these indicators in the reference period (1971-2000) to the projected ones in the future (2041-2070), it was possible to draw

  5. Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mocko, David M.; Sud, Y. C.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

  6. Appropriate Hydrological Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on River Flooding

    OpenAIRE

    Booij, M. J.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Jakeman, A. J.

    2002-01-01

    How good should a river basin model be to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding for a specific geographical area? The determination of such an appropriate model should reveal which physical processes should be incorporated and which data and mathematical process descriptions should be used at which spatial and temporal scales. A procedure for determining an appropriate model has been developed and applied to the above mentioned specific problem for the Meuse river in France, B...

  7. Hydrological cycle and climate change over France: mechanisms, uncertainties, impacts on water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Discrepancies between climate models results over France are largely due to the complexity of mechanisms involved in the continental water cycle and thus on the ensuing uncertainties in the impact of the anthropological climate changes.This article presents the feedback mechanisms involved and emphasizes the importance for climate models to properly represent the hydrological cycle of today's climate. This is particularly critical to forecast the effect of climate change in summer over France, and more broadly, over the wide transition zone between Northern and Southern Europe. For these areas, a better understanding of the changes in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic is also necessary. Ending with an impact study, this paper highlights that with today's understanding, important consequences are to be expected on water supply over France. (author)

  8. Impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Flanner, M. G.; Leung, L.; Wang, W.

    2010-12-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. The snowpack and glaciers over the TP provide fresh water to billions of Asian people, but the TP glaciers have been retreating faster than those anywhere else in the world. In this study a series of experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative forcing (RF) of black carbon (BC) in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope, with concentration larger than 100 µg/kg. Because of high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation, the TP exhibits the largest surface RF induced by BC in snow compared to other snow-covered regions in the world. The BC-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface RF of 5-15 W/m2 during spring. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0oC averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer, i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates. The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1-4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April-July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its thermodynamical forcing. During boreal spring, aerosols are transported by

  9. Modeling hydrological regimes of lakes under climate change conditions using heat-water balance method by Budyko

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemeshko, Natalia; Eitzinger, Josef; Kubu, Gerhard

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change will lead to increasing air temperatures over the next decades and is expected at least to be 1-2°C above the pre-industrial values in near future. Close relationships between the physical processes in the atmosphere and the surface of the planet cause not only temperature changes, but also changes in other parameters of the climate system including hydrosphere. In this context the investigations of a possible change in moisture regime with global warming are very important for assessment of the future changes in the hydrological cycle. A steady-state hydrological model has been developed for evaluation of the changes in climate and hydrological parameters with the progress of global warming. This model is based on the heat-water balance method by M. Budyko and paleoclimatic scenarios. The Budyko's heat-water balance method is based on the combined solution of energy and water balance equations, as well as two empirical dependences: the evaporation rate on soil water content and the surface runoff on precipitation and soil moisture. This method is a universal one as it was developed using empirical data of different climates, including specific humid and arid ones. The method allows to calculate the mean monthly values of evaporation, runoff and water content of the active soil layer (1 m) using data on mean monthly values of surface air temperature, air humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, surface albedo and solar radiation, both for the actual climatic conditions, and for climatic conditions different from the present ones. Some additional assumptions have been made to adapt the method for scenarios of climate change. The paleoclimate scenarios are considered to a certain extent as analogs of future climates. The scenarios used consist of regional deviation from actual climate of annual precipitation, winter and summer air temperatures for Holocene optimum (6-5 KA B.P.) and Last Interglacial (about 125 KA B.P.), which correspond to global

  10. Assessment of climate change impacts on meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Jucar River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos-Garcia, Patricia; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme natural phenomena, and more specifically droughts, constitute a serious environmental, economic and social issue in Southern Mediterranean countries, common in the Mediterranean Spanish basins due to the high temporal and spatial rainfall variability. Drought events are characterized by their complexity, being often difficult to identify and quantify both in time and space, and an universally accepted definition does not even exist. This fact, along with future uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the phenomena on account of climate change, makes necessary increasing the knowledge about the impacts of climate change on droughts in order to design management plans and mitigation strategies. The present abstract aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts, through the use of a generalization of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We use the Standardized Flow Index (SFI) to assess the hydrological drought, using flow time series instead of rainfall time series. In the case of the meteorological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been applied to assess the variability of temperature impacts. In order to characterize climate change impacts on droughts, we have used projections from the CORDEX project (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). Future rainfall and temperature time series for short (2011-2040) and medium terms (2041-2070) were obtained, applying a quantile mapping method to correct the bias of these time series. Regarding the hydrological drought, the Témez hydrological model has been applied to simulate the impacts of future temperature and rainfall time series on runoff and river discharges. It is a conceptual, lumped and a few parameters hydrological model. Nevertheless, it is necessary to point out the time difference between the meteorological and the hydrological droughts. The case study is the Jucar river basin

  11. "As-If" the Climate Has Changed; What We Can Expect in Hydrologic Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieux, B. E.; Looper, J.

    2015-12-01

    Predicting the effects of climate change through hydrologic modeling with hydrologic forcing representative of historic and future climates. Understanding the hydrologic impacts of various climate scenarios and pathways is accomplished with a physics-based distributed hydrologic model with historic and future precipitation and evapotranspiration inputs. Vflo is a gridded hydrologic model setup for the 71,009 sq.-km. study area, the Canadian River, extending from arid areas in eastern New Mexico, across the Texas Panhandle to Lake Eufaula in sub-humid eastern Oklahoma. This model uses merged radar and rain gauge data to generate hydrographs at gauged and ungauged locations. Vflo is calibrated to observed stream gauge data minimizing Nash-Sutcliffe error function for volume and discharge. Streamflow characteristics at ungauged locations, for both historic and future scenarios, are used to develop ecological relationships between water quality, discharge, and fish species. Testing the change in hydrologic response from future potential evapotranspiration (PET) and future precipitation is accomplished using observed rainfall. Historical rainfall is perturbed to represent future climate scenarios. Model-based simulations are used to test various scenarios comprising: 1) warmer and drier, 2) warmer and status quo precipitation, and 3) status quo PET but drier. Bias corrected and spatially down-sampled CMIP3 datasets are used to create perturbations for the latter portion of the 21st Century, 2070-2099. The change in precipitation and PET between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 is applied to radar data from the observed period, 1995-2010. Then GCM-predicted changes in precipitation under the perturbation of historic rainfall accomplishes an important feature, i.e. preserving realistic spatial, temporal, and convective patterns of rainfall typical of the southern plains, which adds confidence to the model-based simulation of future climate impacts. Simulation of the perturbed

  12. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2016-02-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  13. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomer, Mark D.; Schilling, Keith E.

    2009-09-01

    SummaryImpacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios ( p Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  14. Estimating long-term surface hydrological components by coupling remote sensing observation with surface flux model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, J.; Wesely, M. L.

    2002-05-02

    A model framework for parameterized subgrid-scale surface fluxes (PASS) has been applied to use satellite data, models, and routine surface observations to infer root-zone available moisture content and evapotranspiration rate with moderate spatial resolution within Walnut River Watershed in Kansas. Biweekly composite normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) data are derived from observations by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites. Local surface observations provide data on downwelling solar irradiance, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Surface parameters including roughness length, albedo, surface water conductance, and the ratio of soil heat flux to net radiation are estimated; pixel-specific near-surface meteorological conditions such as air temperature, vapor pressure, and wind speed are adjusted according to local surface forcing. The PASS modeling system makes effective use of satellite data and can be run for large areas for which flux data do not exist and surface meteorological data are available from only a limited number of ground stations. The long-term surface hydrological budget is evaluated using radar-derived precipitation estimates, surface meteorological observations, and satellite data. The modeled hydrological components in the Walnut River Watershed compare well with stream gauge data and observed surface fluxes during 1999.

  15. Estimating long-term surface hydrological components by coupling remote sensing observation with surface flux model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A model framework for parameterized subgrid-scale surface fluxes (PASS) has been applied to use satellite data, models, and routine surface observations to infer root-zone available moisture content and evapotranspiration rate with moderate spatial resolution within Walnut River Watershed in Kansas. Biweekly composite normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) data are derived from observations by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites. Local surface observations provide data on downwelling solar irradiance, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Surface parameters including roughness length, albedo, surface water conductance, and the ratio of soil heat flux to net radiation are estimated; pixel-specific near-surface meteorological conditions such as air temperature, vapor pressure, and wind speed are adjusted according to local surface forcing. The PASS modeling system makes effective use of satellite data and can be run for large areas for which flux data do not exist and surface meteorological data are available from only a limited number of ground stations. The long-term surface hydrological budget is evaluated using radar-derived precipitation estimates, surface meteorological observations, and satellite data. The modeled hydrological components in the Walnut River Watershed compare well with stream gauge data and observed surface fluxes during 1999

  16. VIC distributed hydrological model to predict climate change impact in the Hanjiang Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, the general circulation model (GCM), which is widely used to simulate future climate scenario, operates on a coarse scale and does not provide reliable data on local or regional scale for hydrological modeling. Therefore the outputs from GCM have to be downscaled to obtain the information fit for hydrologic studies. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) distributed hydrological model with 9×9 km2 grid resolution was applied and calibrated in the Hanjiang Basin. Validation results show that SSVM can approximate observed precipitation and temperature data reasonably well, and that the VIC model can simulate runoff hydrograph with high model efficiency and low relative error. By applying the SSVM model, the trends of precipitation and temperature (including daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature) projected from CGCM2 under A2 and B2 scenarios will decrease in the 2020s (2011―2040), and increase in the 2080s (2071―2100). However, in the 2050s (2041―2070), the precipitation will be decreased under A2 scenario and no significant changes under B2 scenario, but the temperature will be not obviously changed under both climate change scenarios. Under both climate change scenarios, the impact analysis of runoff, made with the downscaled precipitation and temperature time series as input of the VIC distributed model, has resulted in a decreasing trend for the 2020s and 2050s, and an overall increasing trend for the 2080s.

  17. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kallache

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

  19. International Symposium on Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems, and Climate Change Studies. Presentations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human activities have had a far-reaching impact on the aquatic environments - both marine and freshwater systems. The protection of these systems against further deterioration and the promotion of sustainable use are vital. In order to deepen understanding about the main processes affecting the present situation, as well as possible developments in the future, further investigation is required. The oceans play a major role in climate change, for example, and ocean acidification by increased CO2 release is one major threat to the world's oceans. Isotope methods can play a critical role in identifying and quantifying key processes within aquatic environments. Addressing the problems of global water resources has become a matter of urgency. Water resources are subject to multiple pressures for various reasons, including increasing populations, climate change, rising food and energy costs, the global economic crisis and pollutant loading. Isotope hydrology provides the unique and critical tools required to address complex water problems and helps managers and policy makers understand the closely intertwined relationship between water resources and the various pressures affecting them, as well as the issue of sustainability. The symposium will be an important forum for the exchange of knowledge on the present state of marine and freshwater environments, use of isotopes in water resources investigations and management, and climate change studies. The meeting will involve leading scientists in the field of climate change and hydrology, as well as representatives from other United Nations bodies and international organizations that focus on climate change and other important environmental issues. TOPICS: The role of isotopes in understanding and modelling climate change, marine ecosystems and the water cycle; Carbon dioxide sequestration and related aspects of the carbon cycle, such as ocean acidification; Isotopes in groundwater flow modelling for large aquifers

  20. Mesoscale climate hydrology: Earth Observation System - definition phase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    1995-01-01

    The use of airborne and space observations to map surface heat fluxes and soil water content at heterogeneous land surfaces was studied. Algorithms to estimate evaporation fluxes with satellite observations were evaluated against measurements. Spatialcorrelation lengths were studied with estimated m

  1. Mesoscale climate hydrology: Earth Observation System - definition phase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    1997-01-01

    The use of airborne and space observations to map surface heat fluxes and soil water content at heterogeneous land surfaces was studied. Algorithms to estimate evaporation fluxes with satellite observations were evaluated against measurements. Spatialcorrelation lengths were studied with estimated m

  2. Vulnerability of North American Boreal Peatlands to Interactions between Climate, Hydrology, and Wildland Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Jenkins, L. K.; Kasischke, E. S.; Turetsky, M.; Benscoter, B.; Banda, E. J.; Boren, E. J.; Endres, S. L.; Billmire, M.

    2013-12-01

    North American boreal peatland sites of Alaska, Alberta Canada, and the southern limit of the boreal ecoregion (Michigan's Upper Peninsula) are the focus of an ongoing project to better understand the fire weather, hydrology, and climatic controls on boreal peatland fires. The overall goal of the research project is to reduce uncertainties of the role of northern high latitude ecosystems in the global carbon cycle and to improve carbon emission estimates from boreal fires. Boreal peatlands store tremendous reservoirs of soil carbon that are likely to become increasingly vulnerable to fire as climate change lowers water tables and exposes C-rich peat to burning. Increasing fire activity in peatlands could cause these ecosystems to become net sources of C to the atmosphere, which is likely to have large influences on atmospheric carbon concentrations through positive feedbacks that enhance climate warming. Remote sensing is key to monitoring, understanding and quantifying changes occurring in boreal peatlands. Remote sensing methods are being developed to: 1) map and classify peatland cover types; 2) characterize seasonal and inter-annual variations in the moisture content of surface peat (fuel) layers; 3) map the extent and seasonal timing of fires in peatlands; and 4) discriminate different levels of fuel consumption/burn severity in peat fires. A hybrid radar and optical infrared methodology has been developed to map peatland types (bog vs. fen) and level of biomass (open herbaceous, shrubby, forested). This methodology relies on multi-season data to detect phenological changes in hydrology which characterize the different ecosystem types. Landsat data are being used to discriminate burn severity classes in the peatland types using standard dNBR methods as well as individual bands. Cross referencing the peatland maps and burn severity maps will allow for assessment of the distribution of upland and peatland ecosystems affected by fire and quantitative analysis of

  3. Far-infrared surface emissivity and climate

    OpenAIRE

    Feldman, Daniel R.; Collins, William D.; Pincus, Robert; Huang, Xianglei; Chen, Xiuhong

    2014-01-01

    We find that many of the Earth's climate variables, including surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, cooling rates, and frozen surface extent, are sensitive to far-IR surface emissivity, a largely unconstrained, temporally and spatially heterogeneous scaling factor for the blackbody radiation from the surface at wavelengths between 15 μm and 100 μm. We also describe a previously unidentified mechanism that amplifies high-latitude and high-altitude warming in finding significantly l...

  4. Effects of the climate change in the hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arreguin Cortés, F.; López Pérez, M.

    2010-03-01

    Among the different effects resulting from the Climate Change around the world related to the water cycle those that account more are the drought and the flooding. Also the water supply sources is expected to diminished or polluted, wetlands tend to disappear and aquatic environments degrade, population is expected to be displaced because of the increase in sea level in deltaic zones and a lowering in health standards related to water diseases due to extreme meteorological phenomena and new climatic conditions. That the climate has changed in México is a fact and its features are the increase in seasonal temperature (winter and summer) as well as a reduction in summer precipitation in central and northern Mexico coupled to an increase in winter in the northwestern regions. More frequent severe storms in different Mexican regions (southeastern and central Mexico) and in urban areas like Mexico City and the gradual reduction in the water flowing in rivers are also evidence of this change. The National Water Commission has developed studies using maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation analysis from a new data base called Maya v1 which accounts for a regular network that covers the entire country. Also coastal aquifer studies, hurricane strikes incidence and identification of specific areas in water basins with major vulnerability (closely related to urban and rural settlements invading floodplains and water courses) are underway. Some studies and actions that need to be developed and taken are indicated and an example of coordinated work is shown. In addition a set of adaptation measures to take according to the regional situation is described. Such measures should focus on the present situation as well as for the future and need to be studied and foreseen now. If such measures are quickly taken in those vulnerable areas the costs they represent will be less compared with the costs of the damages due to the presence of the hydrometeorological

  5. Land surface phenology, hydrology and CO2 fluxes of forests and grasslands in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, X.; Li, C.; Kurbatova, J.; Varlagin, A.; Zhang, J.; Wu, J.; Wu, W.; Biradar, C.; Chen, J.

    2008-12-01

    Land surface phenology (LSP) is a key indicator of ecosystem dynamics under a changing environment. Changes in phenology of plants affect the carbon cycle, water cycle, climate through photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. We have combined satellite observations, CO2 eddy flux tower sites and process-based biogeochemical model to improve our understanding of the effect of land surface phenology and hydrology on gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) from a variety of ecosystem types. In this paper, we will present case studies from two spruce forest sites (wet spruce forest and dry spruce forest) in Russia, a deciduous broadleaf forest site and a grassland site in Northern China. Among the three vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI), both LSWI and EVI agreed well with the photosynthetically active period (as defined by estimated GPP data from CO2 eddy flux tower sites) than NDVI does. The Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), which uses EVI and LSWI data as input, provides improved prediction of GPP for various types of terrestrial ecosystems. NEE is the difference between GPP and ecosystem respiration. Simulations of processed-based DNDC model for two spruce forests (wet and dry spruce forests) suggested that ecosystem respiration (and consequently NEE) fluxes are highly sensitive to water table depth at the sites. Because Northern Eurasia has a large area of wetlands and underwent significant climate change, potential change in water table due to hydrological processes could have significant implication to the carbon fluxes and carbon balance (carbon sink or source) in the region.

  6. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  7. Impact of climate change on hydrological behaviour and crop production in a glacial river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remesan, Renji; Holman, Ian; Janes, Victoria

    2015-04-01

    Himalayan valleys are confronting severe climate change related issues (flash flood and landslides, water scarcity in higher altitudes) because of fluctuating monsoon precipitation and increasing seasonal temperatures. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied to the River Beas basin, using daily Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) meteorological data to simulate the river regime and crop yields. The Beas is regionally significant as it holds two giant dams, one which annually diverts 4700 Mm3 of water to a nearby basin. We have applied Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2 (SUFI-2) to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the stream flow modelling. The model evaluation statistics for Daily River flows at the Jwalamukhi and Pong gauges show good agreement with measured flows (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.70 and PBIAS of 7.54 %). We then applied the models within a scenario-neutral framework to develop hydrological and crop yield Impact Response Surfaces (IRS) for future changes in annual temperature and precipitation for the region from AR5. Future Q10 and Q90 daily flows indicate amplified 'flash flood' situations and increased low flows, respectively, with increasing temperatures due to increased snowmelt from retreating glaciers. Under existing crop and irrigation management practices, the IRS show decreasing and increasing crop yields for summer (monsoon) and winter (post monsoon) crops, respectively, with rising temperature. The sensitivity of winter (post monsoon) crop yields to precipitation increases with increasing temperature. The paper will consider the implications of the research for future agricultural water management and the potential of agronomic and irrigation adaptation to offset yield losses

  8. Hydrological impact of climate change in a Mediterranean catchment with limited data availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is one of the areas of the world where climate changes due to global warming are expected to be more significant. Future scenarios predicted by global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) indicate a decrease in water availability, which will lead to social and economic consequences, mainly affecting the agricultural sector. Reducing the uncertainty in the quantification of the climate changes impacts in Mediterranean watersheds is the main goal of the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) project, funded by the 7th EU Framework Programme. One of the study sites of CLIMB is the Rio Mannu at Monastir (473 km2) basin, located in an agricultural area of Southern Sardinia, Italy, that has experienced severe drought periods during the last 30 years with dramatic decreases of crop productivity. To quantify the climate change impacts, outputs of four RCMs are used to force a distributed and physically-based hydrologic model, known as TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). In this study, we first illustrate the tRIBS model calibration, using the limited dataset available in the Rio Mannu basin, a common feature in most regions of the world. In our study site, hydrometeorological data (streamflow, precipitation, temperature and meteorological variables) are available at different resolution and during non-overlapping periods. To create the database at hourly resolution required for tRIBS application, we designed two downscaling strategies, aimed at (i) disaggregating precipitation from daily to hourly resolution using a multifractal model, and (ii) obtaining reference evapotranspiration at hourly time scale from daily records of minimum and maximum temperature. We demonstrate how the downscaling tools are able to generate a reliable database to calibrate the hydrologic model, and how they can be used to disaggregate coarse outputs of climate models. In a second part of the study, the

  9. Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change will very likely impact future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of human water use including reservoir regulation and climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale. The global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB is used to simulate daily discharge globally at 0.5 ° resolution for 1971-2099. The model was forced with the latest CMIP5 climate projections taken from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four emission scenarios (RCPs), under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. A natural or pristine scenario has been used to calculate the impact of the changing climate on hydrological drought and has been compared to a scenario with human influences. In the latter scenario reservoir operations and human water use are included in the simulations of discharge for the 21st century. The impact of humans on the low flow regime and hydrological drought characteristics has been studied at a catchment scale. Results show a significant impact of climate change and human water use in large parts of Asia, Middle East and the Mediterranean, where the relative contribution of humans on the changed drought severity can be close to 100%. The differences between Representative Concentration Pathways are small indicating that human water use is proportional to the changes in the climate. Reservoirs tend to reduce the impact of drought by water retention in the wet season, which in turn will lead to increased water availability in the dry season, especially for large regions in Europe and North America. The impact of climate change varies throughout the season for parts of Europe and North-America, while in other regions (e.g. North-Africa, Middle East and Mediterranean), the impact is not influenced by seasonal changes. This study illustrates that the impact of human water use and reservoirs is nontrivial

  10. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lauri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia between the baseline (1982–1992 and projected time period (2032–2042 ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will

  11. Impact of climate and water management changes on the hydrological balance of the Laborec wetland system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridrich Tegelhoffova, Martina; Hlavcova, Kamila; Kohnova, Silvia; Soltesz, Andrej

    2010-05-01

    The modeling of existing and changed conditions of hydrological balance in the selected wetland ecosystem in the Eastern Slovakia Lowland was evaluated using the hydrological model Mike SHE. The pilot area - Sennianska depression is located near by the Senne village, between Laborec and Uh Rivers and it is specific by traditional landscape of meadows, wet meadows, cultivated soils, small water control structures and forests. The pilot area is important in terms of vegetation conditions and for total restoration of the wetland system in the modeling area. As the input data for modeling of water balance following characteristics were selected: hydrologic and climate data (rainfall, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration), data from gauging stations and ground water wells (discharges, water levels and ground water levels), also the distributed layers of physical-geographical properties and characteristics of the area. Basic layers are represented by digital elevation model, the soil and land use maps and the map of geological layers. Other input data are distributed parameters from land use map, parameters from geological properties and parameters from soil map. Built-up physically based hydrological model Mike SHE (model domain 1 x 1 m) was used for modeling hydrological balance of the Sennianska depression considering climatic changes scenarios for future decades. Scenarios of possible trends of daily rainfall and average daily air temperature were processed based on outputs of climatic model CGCM3.1, which is the newest version of the Canadian atmosphere and ocean circulation model. Regional modification of the scenarios into the climatic stations on the Laborec River basin was developed at the Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics FMFI UK in Bratislava based on the methodology published in Lapin et al. (2006). Two emission scenarios - SRES A2 a SRES B1 have been used. The first one presents pessimistic assumption of human behavior till the year 2100, and

  12. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

    2015-10-01

    Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

  13. Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

    1988-01-01

    A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

  14. Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2016-02-01

    Catchment flow regimes alteration is likely to be a prominent consequence of climate change projections in the Mediterranean. Here we explore the potential effects of climatic change on the flow regime of the Thau and the Chiba catchments which are located in Southern France and Northeastern Tunisia, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is forced with projections from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) to assess changes and uncertainty in relevant hydrological indicators related to water balance, magnitude, frequency and timing of the flow between a reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2071) periods. Results indicate that both catchments are likely to experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the future. Consequently, runoff and soil water content are projected to decrease whereas potential evapotranspiration is likely to increase in both catchments. Yet uncertain, the projected magnitudes of these changes are higher in the wet period than in the dry period. Analyses of extreme flow show similar trend in both catchments, projecting a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. Further, significant increase in low flow frequency as a proxy for hydrological droughts is projected for both catchments but with higher uncertainty in the wet period than in the dry period. Although no changes in the average timing of maximum and minimum flow events for different flow durations are projected, substantial uncertainty remains in the hydrological projections. While the results in both catchments show consistent trend of change for most of the hydrologic indicators, the overall degree of alteration on the flow regime of the Chiba catchment is projected to be higher than that of the Thau catchment. The projected magnitudes of alteration as well as their associated uncertainty vary depending on the catchment characteristics and flow seasonality. PMID:26170115

  15. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  16. Effects of Climate-Induced Hydrologic Modifications on Biogeochemical Cycling of Trace Metals in Alluvial and Coastal Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.; Natter, M. G.; Keevan, J. P.; Guerra, K.; Saunders, J.; Uddin, A.; Humayun, M.; Wang, Y.; Keimowitz, A. R.

    2013-12-01

    Assessing the impacts of climate changes on water quality requires an understanding of the biogeochemical cycling of trace metals. Evidence from research on alluvial aquifers and coastal watersheds shows direct impacts of climate change on the fate and transformation of trace metals in natural environments. This study employs field data and numerical modeling techniques to test assumptions about the effects of climate change on natural arsenic contamination of groundwater in alluvial aquifers and mercury bioaccumulation in coastal saltmarshes. The results show that the rises of sea level and river base during the warm Holocene period has led to an overall increase in groundwater arsenic concentration due to the development of reducing geochemical conditions and sluggish groundwater movement. Modeling results indicate that the intrusion of seawater occurring during high sea-level stand may lead to desorption of arsenic from the surfaces of hydrous oxides due to pH effects and ionic competition for mineral sorbing sites. Our results also show that contamination and bioaccumulation of Hg and other metals in estuarine and coastal ecosystems may be influenced by climate-induced hydrologic modifications (atmospheric deposition, riverine input, salinity level, etc.). An integrated research framework consisting of numerical modeling, long-term monitoring, laboratory experiments will be necessary for building a comprehensive understanding of the complex response of biogeochemical cycling of trace metals to climate change.

  17. Hydrologic Science and Satellite Measurements of Surface Water (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsdorf, D. E.; Mognard, N. M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2010-12-01

    While significant advances continue to be made for satellite measurements of surface waters, important science and application opportunities remain. Examples include the following: (1) Our current methods of measuring floodwater dynamics are either sparsely distributed or temporally inadequate. As an example, flood depths are measured by using high water marks, which capture only the peak of the flood wave, not its temporal variability. (2) Discharge is well measured at individual points along stream networks using in-situ gauges, but these do not capture within-reach hydraulic variability such as the water surface slope changes on the rising and falling limbs of flood waves. (3) Just a 1.0 mm/day error in ET over the Congo Basin translates to a 35,000 m3/s discharge error. Knowing the discharge of the Congo River and its many tributaries should significantly improve our understanding of the water balance throughout the basin. The Congo is exemplary of many other basins around the globe. (4) Arctic hydrology is punctuated by millions of unmeasured lakes. Globally, there might be as many as 30 million lakes larger than a hectare. Storage changes in these lakes are nearly unknown, but in the Arctic such changes are likely an indication of global warming. (5) Well over 100 rivers cross international boundaries, yet the sharing of water data is poor. Overcoming this helps to better manage the entire river basin while also providing a better assessment of potential water related disasters. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT, http://swot.jpl.nasa.gov/) mission is designed to meet these needs by providing global measurements of surface water hydrodynamics. SWOT will allow estimates of discharge in rivers wider than 100m (50m goal) and storage changes in water bodies larger than 250m by 250m (and likely as small as one hectare).

  18. Climate change impact assessment on various components of the hydrological regime of the Malše river basin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Němečková, Soňa; Slámová, Romana; Šípek, Václav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 2 (2011), s. 131-143. ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : climate change * hydrological modelling * hydrological cycle Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2011

  19. Development and implementation of a Variable Infiltration Capacity model of surface hydrology into the General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is described for the representation of land surface hydrology in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The VIC model computes runoff as a function of the distribution of soil moisture capacity within a GCM grid cell. The major distinguishing feature of the VIC model relative to the bucket model currently used to represent the land surface in many GCMs is that it parameterizes the nonlinearity of the fraction of precipitation that infiltrates over a large area (hence the production of direct runoff) as a function of spatial average soil moisture storage, and that it models subsurface runoff between storms via a simple recession mechanism. The VIC model was incorporated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM at R15 resolution (roughly 4.5 degrees latitude by 7.5 degrees longitude). Ten-year simulations of global climate were produced using the GFDL GCM with both VIC land surface hydrology, and, for comparison purposes, the standard bucket representation. Comparison of the ten year runs using the VIC model with those using bucket hydrology showed that for the VIC run, global average runoff increased, soil moisture decreased, evaporation decreased, land surface temperature increased, and precipitation decreased. As expected, changes in precipitation occurred primarily over the continents, especially in the northern hemisphere. Changes in the surface water balance for Africa, Australia, and South America were much less than for North American and Eurasia. Both VIC and bucket simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation were compared with gridded monthly average observation fields. These comparisons indicated that the VIC hydrology reproduced winter temperatures better, and summer temperatures worse, than the bucket model. The VIC hydrology better represented global precipitation, primarily as a result of partially reducing the upward bias in precipitation associated with the GFDL R15 bucket runs

  20. Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

  1. Shrub patterns and surface hydrological fluxes in a semiarid hillslope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svoray, Tal; Sela, Shai; Assouline, Shmuel

    2010-05-01

    Climate-vegetation interactions and feedbacks are the subject of many studies and recently, the rainfall-plant-soil interplay in the hillslope scale is in the foci of ecohydrology. As most of the models in this scale rely on synthetic environments, there is a need for studies that use remotely sensed and in-situ data to examine the effect of hillslope hydrological processes on ecosystem functioning and plant population spread in a more realistic manner. A major problem is the difficulty encountered in simulating water budget and measuring vegetation at the individual level. In this research, a typical hillslope was chosen offering variations in slope decline and orientation, soil depth and vegetation cover, at the LTER Lehavim site in the center of Israel (31020' N, 34045' E). The annual rainfall is 290 mm, the soils are brown lithosols and arid brown loess and the dominant rock formations are Eocenean limestone and chalk with patches of calcrete. The vegetation is characterized by scattered dwarf shrubs (dominant species Sarcopoterium spinosum) and patches of herbaceous vegetation, mostly annuals, are spread between rocks and dwarf shrubs. Eight areal photographs of the slope, between the years 1978-2005, were acquired, georeferenced and shrub cover was estimated based on supervised classification of the airphotos. An extensive spatial database of soil hydraulic and environmental parameters (e.g. slope, radiation, bulk density, soil depth) was measured in the field and interpolated to continuous maps using geostatistical techniques and physically-based modeling. This spatio-temporal database was used to characterize 1187 spatial cells serving as an input to a numeric hydrological model (Hydrus 1D) solving the flow equations to predict soil water content at the single storm and seasonal scales. The model was verified by sampling soil moisture at 63 random locations at the research site, during three consecutive storms in the 2008-09 rainy seasons. The results show

  2. Changes in hydrological regime under changed climate and forest conditions in mountainous basins in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavcova, Kamila; Roncak, Peter; Maliarikova, Marcela; Latkova, Tamara; Korbelova, Lenka

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of land use and climate change on hydrological regime have been an important field of research in recent decades, especially with respect to runoff formation. Land use directly impacts basic hydrological processes, such as evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff. The study focuses on estimating impact of land use and climate changes on runoff generation in selected mountainous basins in Slovakia. Changes in land use were represented by changes in forest distribution and composition induced by changed climate. Two climate scenarios of the daily air temperatures, specific air humidity and precipitation (KNMI A1B and MPI A1B) regionally downscaled for the territory of Slovakia until the time horizon of 2075 were applied. For simulations of runoff and other components of hydrological balance under changed conditions a distributed rainfall-runoff model was used. The simulations were done with an emphasis on the parameterization of the land cover properties (spatially distributed model parameters) and calibration of global parameters of the hydrological model in changed conditions. The outcomes of the runoff simulations indicate that changes in the long-term mean monthly discharges are expected. During the winter and early spring periods, an increase in the long-term mean monthly runoff could be assumed. The period of an increase in runoff could occur from November/December to February/April. This increase could be caused by an increase in air temperature and a shift in the snow melting period from the spring months to the winter period. The period of a decrease in runoff could occur from March/April to September/November. The increase in winter runoff and the decrease in summer runoff are expected to be more extreme for the later time horizons.

  3. CLIMB - Climate induced changes on the hydrology of mediterranean basins - Reducing uncertainties and quantifying risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2010-05-01

    According to future climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources. Threats include severe droughts and extreme flooding, salinization of coastal aquifers, degradation of fertile soils and desertification due to poor and unsustainable water management practices. It can be foreseen that, unless appropriate adaptation measures are undertaken, the changes in the hydrologic cycle will give rise to an increasing potential for tension and conflict among the political and economic actors in this vulnerable region. The presented project initiative CLIMB, funded under EC's 7th Framework Program (FP7-ENV-2009-1), has started in January 2010. In its 4-year design, it shall analyze ongoing and future climate induced changes in hydrological budgets and extremes across the Mediterranean and neighboring regions. This is undertaken in study sites located in Sardinia, Northern Italy, Southern France, Tunisia, Egypt and the Palestinian-administered area Gaza. The work plan is targeted to selected river or aquifer catchments, where the consortium will employ a combination of novel field monitoring and remote sensing concepts, data assimilation, integrated hydrologic (and biophysical) modeling and socioeconomic factor analyses to reduce existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. Advanced climate scenario analysis will be employed and available ensembles of regional climate model simulations will be downscaling. This process will provide the drivers for an ensemble of hydro(-geo)logical models with different degrees of complexity in terms of process description and level of integration. The results of hydrological modeling and socio-economic factor analysis will enable the development of a GIS-based Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool. This tool will serve as a platform

  4. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J. T.; Gardner, A. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Wiese, D. N.; Eicker, A.; Lo, M.-H.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level.

  5. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    subsequent variety of management options and adaptation strategies. Therefore, the 4-year FP7-project CLIMB (Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins, GA: 244151) includes a major focus on the assessment and quantification of uncertainties. First, CLIMB employs a rigorous climate change model analysis, auditing the Global and Regional Climate Model data available through the ENSEMBLES and PRUDENCE initiatives. The audits lead to select the best regional performers as compared to observed values during the climatic reference period (1971- 2000). Specific bias correction and downscaling procedures are applied to provide the driving inputs and meet the demands of the subsequent impact models, transferring a future climate signal (2041-2070) into hydrological quantities at the catchment or landscape scale. However, very limited quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment, where predictive power becomes more and more important and raises the demand for process-based and spatially explicit model types. Thus, CLIMB uses hydrological model ensembles to analyze the performance of existing models and works to identify the appropriate level of model complexity, and thus to determine the data specifications required to provide robust results in a climate change context. The presentation focuses on the CLIMB multi-level strategy to uncertainty assessment and highlights latest findings in some of the seven CLIMB case studies. In particular, the presentation will demonstrate the current constraints of hydro-meteorological data availability and processing and searches for solutions that can eventually be provided by integrating hydro-meteorology and ICT research communities.

  6. CLIMATE AND LULC CHANGE SCENARIOS TO STUDY ITS IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Aggarwal

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, whether as a natural cycle variability and/or due to anthropogenic reasons, is affecting and likely to further affect the water resources, which is a vital necessity for existence of life form. The predicted intensification of hydrological cycle would change all of its constituents both in time and space domain. This is a long term phenomenon and the necessity is to understand the intensity of the effects on various aspects of water resources by way of scientific studies backed by the available field data. Therefore, in the present study, the impact of climate and land use land cover change on entire India under different assumed plausible hypothetical scenarios has been studied. These scenarios were developed by increasing; temperature by 1, 2 and 30C; rainfall by 5, 10 and 15%; and then the combination of both. To carry out this analysis, variable infiltration capacity (VIC semi-distributed macroscale hydrological model has been investigated. It was found that slight change in climate may pose huge difference on hydrological cycle and its component.

  7. Planned Contributions of The Wcrp Climate and Cryosphere (clic) Project To Mountain Hydrological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, R. G.

    Formal discussions within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) since 1997 have addressed the question of the role of the cryosphere in the climate system. An outcome has been the approval in March 2000 of a Science and Co-ordination Plan for a new Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project by the WCRP Joint Scientific Com- mittee in March 2000. The concept of this plan (WCRP, 2001) and particular topics of concern for high-mountain hydrology are discussed here. The proposed definition of the cryosphere is that portion of the climate system consisting of the world's ice masses and snow deposits. of relevance for mountains are: ice caps and glaciers, sea- sonal snow cover, lake and river ice, and seasonally frozen ground and permafrost. Existing projects both within the framework of the WCRP, as well as of the IGBP are mainly regional and links into the global climate research effort are not sufficiently comprehensive. The WCRP GEWEX project has cryospheric components concerning the high latitude hydrological cycle, but mountain studies are currently only in Ti- bet. Other relevant programs include: the IGBP-BAHC Mountain Research Initiative, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS), and Permafrost and Climate in Europe (PACE), for example. Integration of existing cryospheric projects within a global research structure, together with new efforts addressing current gaps, is re- quired in order to: - enhance links between regional and global climatic components studies, - promote appropriate treatment of cryospheric processes in climate models, and - assemble and make accessible quality controlled, well documented, comprehen- sive and coherent global gridded data sets necessary for driving and validating climate models. The principal scientific questions relating to the cryosphere in mountain re- gions concern: - glacier melt contributions to global sea level change, - the energy and water cycle in regions with land ice, snow cover and frozen ground, - the

  8. The HC-LAC: a Platform for Modeling Hydrology and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreda, F.; Wyatt, A.; Bruhn, M.; Wheaton, W.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.; Muñoz-Castillo, R.; Rineer, J.

    2013-05-01

    This platform, called the Hydrology and Climate Change in Latin America and The Caribbean, or "HC-LAC", is an integrated quantitative simulation of hydrology and climate change. The HC-LAC is composed of two principal components: the Analytical Hydrography Dataset (AHD) and an enhanced version of the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The AHD is a spatially explicit surface water data layer of Central and South America derived from digital elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and modified by the USGS to provide more accurate flow between cells in the raster data. For the LAC area, AHD consists 230, 000 catchments and stream segments with an average area of 100 km2 and length of 10 km, respectively. The AHD data structure is patterned after the US National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus), thus providing a proven structure for flexible data integration and analyses necessary for spatial models like the HC-LAC. The structure of the AHD enables the implementation of water balance modeling and general routing of flows through the stream network thus supporting a range of environmental models. GWLF is applied on each AHD catchment which is characterized by multiple land use and soil type. The response of each land use in a given catchment is modeled separately in generating stream flow as well as recharge to soil storage. The stream flows generated from each catchment are routed through stream networks, providing total flow at any point in the stream network. A pilot implementation of the HC-LAC was established for the Rio Grande basin in North West Argentina (drainage area 6,700 km2). The model was parameterized and calibrated using readily available data. Three stream flow time series were generated using a reference climate case and two climate change projections. The reference case was based on historical records and assumes no climate change. The two climate change projections were generated using the IPCC "A2" high

  9. The hydrological response of the Ourthe catchment to climate change as modelled by the HBV model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. L. A. Driessen

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The Meuse is an important river in western Europe, and almost exclusively rain-fed. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics due to climate change, therefore, are expected to have a considerable effect on the hydrological regime of the river Meuse. We focus on an important tributary of the Meuse, the Ourthe, measuring about 1600 km2. The well-known hydrological model HBV is forced with three high-resolution (0.088° regional climate scenarios, each based on one of three different IPCC CO2 emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. To represent the current climate, a reference model run at the same resolution is used. Prior to running the hydrological model, the biases in the climate model output are investigated and corrected for. Different approaches to correct the distributed climate model output using single-site observations are compared. Correcting the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is found to give the best results, but still large differences exist between observations and simulations. The bias corrected data are then used to force HBV. Results indicate a small increase in overall discharge for especially the B1 scenario during the beginning of the 21st century. Towards the end of the century, all scenarios show a decrease in summer discharge, partially because of the diminished buffering effect by the snow pack, and an increased discharge in winter. It should be stressed, however, that we used results from only one GCM (the only one available at such a high resolution. It would be interesting to repeat the analysis with multiple models.

  10. Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidong Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

  11. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change Induced Permafrost Retreat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thawing permafrost peatlands substantially influence Canadian northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our International polar y ear (IPY) study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated patches permafrost Zone (northern alberta), to the continuous permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH4 and CO2 concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH4 production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in canada's arctic (approximately. 2.5 km/a). (author)

  12. Identifying and Evaluating the Relationships that Control a Land Surface Model's Hydrological Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Mahanama, Sarith P.

    2012-01-01

    The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today 's land surface models (LSMs) arguably reflect a lot of guesswork given the lack of contemporaneous evaporation and soil moisture observations at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. The inherent soil moisture-runoff relationships used in the LSMs are also of uncertain accuracy. Evaluating these relationships is difficult but crucial given that they have a major impact on how the land component contributes to hydrological and meteorological variability within the climate system. The relationships, it turns out, can be examined efficiently and effectively with a simple water balance model framework. The simple water balance model, driven with multi-decadal observations covering the conterminous United States, shows how different prescribed relationships lead to different manifestations of hydrological variability, some of which can be compared directly to observations. Through the testing of a wide suite of relationships, the simple model provides estimates for the underlying relationships that operate in nature and that should be operating in LSMs. We examine the relationships currently used in a number of different LSMs in the context of the simple water balance model results and make recommendations for potential first-order improvements to these LSMs.

  13. Land surface hydrology parameterization for atmospheric general circulation models including subgrid scale spatial variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entekhabi, D.; Eagleson, P. S.

    1989-01-01

    Parameterizations are developed for the representation of subgrid hydrologic processes in atmospheric general circulation models. Reasonable a priori probability density functions of the spatial variability of soil moisture and of precipitation are introduced. These are used in conjunction with the deterministic equations describing basic soil moisture physics to derive expressions for the hydrologic processes that include subgrid scale variation in parameters. The major model sensitivities to soil type and to climatic forcing are explored.

  14. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies. Vol. I. Proceedings of an International Symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by theWater Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the P rincipality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community

  15. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies, Vol. 2. Proceedings of the International Symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by the Water Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the Principality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community

  16. Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

  17. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  18. Identifying a robust method to build RCMs ensemble as climate forcing for hydrological impact models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmos Giménez, P.; García Galiano, S. G.; Giraldo-Osorio, J. D.

    2016-06-01

    The regional climate models (RCMs) improve the understanding of the climate mechanism and are often used as climate forcing to hydrological impact models. Rainfall is the principal input to the water cycle, so special attention should be paid to its accurate estimation. However, climate change projections of rainfall events exhibit great divergence between RCMs. As a consequence, the rainfall projections, and the estimation of uncertainties, are better based in the combination of the information provided by an ensemble approach from different RCMs simulations. Taking into account the rainfall variability provided by different RCMs, the aims of this work are to evaluate the performance of two novel approaches based on the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method for building RCMs ensembles of monthly precipitation over Spain. The proposed methodologies are based on probability density functions (PDFs) considering the variability of different levels of information, on the one hand of annual and seasonal rainfall, and on the other hand of monthly rainfall. The sensitivity of the proposed approaches, to two metrics for identifying the best ensemble building method, is evaluated. The plausible future scenario of rainfall for 2021-2050 over Spain, based on the more robust method, is identified. As a result, the rainfall projections are improved thus decreasing the uncertainties involved, to drive hydrological impacts models and therefore to reduce the cumulative errors in the modeling chain.

  19. Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanowicz Renata J

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes. The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021–2050 and the far-future (2071–2100. The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.

  20. Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viola, F; Francipane, A; Caracciolo, D; Pumo, D; La Loggia, G; Noto, L V

    2016-02-15

    The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. PMID:26674680

  1. Climate change, geological and hydrological hazard and adaptation policy in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    The present work try to underling the scientific and technical background for a national plan for adaptation to climate change in the field of geo hydrological disasters. The adaptation policy represents the need tool to prevent from the adverse effect of climate change, minimizing the impacts and maximizing the opportunity from these changes. The "decision and policy makers" therefore needs to understand the vulnerability of existing territory in terms of impacts, related risks, opportunities, costs and consequences of different options and scenarios. Climate change has significant impacts on the hydrological cycle and all its related phenomena. Landslide and floods represent the conflict between natural and physic system and social and economical setting, constituting a fundamental imbalance and risk for population. Italian territory due to geological and geomorphological settings is always been interested by geological and hydrological extreme events. Between 1279 and 2002 A.D. in Italy, the AVI catalog (http://avi.gndci.cnr.it) recorded 4521 extreme events in terms of damages. In the same period we had 13.8 victims per year during landslide and 49.6 victims per year due to floods. To define a strong correlation between actual trend in occurrence of geological and hydrological hazards and future scenarios, it seems to be very difficult. The correlation should consider the relationship between meteorological trigger mechanisms (not yet very well associated to climate change) and hazard. For the Italian situations the most recent models provide the following scenario: further increase in temperature (steadily increasing trend already in the last two decades) with increasing periods of drought and heat waves; a general decrease in average precipitation; a decrease in wet days; an increase in intensity of rainfall (extreme events). Such trend seem to be more relevant in the southern part of Italy. The same problems arise when defining the socio economic impacts. The

  2. Comparison of hydrological signal in polar motion excitation with those based on the FGOALS-g2 climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David

    2016-04-01

    Our investigations are focused on the influence of different land hydrosphere surface parameters (precipitation, evaporation, total runoff, soil moisture, accumulated snow) on polar motion excitation functions at seasonal and nonseasonal timescales. Here these different variables are obtained from the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Grid point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), which is a climate model from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5); with CMIP5 being composed of separate component models of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. In this study Terrestrial Water Storage TWS changes were determined as: differences between the precipitation, evaporation and total surface runoff content, and as the total soil moisture content being a sum of soil moisture and snowfall flux changes. We compare the model-based data with those from estimates of the Equivalent Water Thickness determined by GRACE satellite observations from the Center for Space Research (CSR). The transfer of angular momentum from global geophysical fluids to the solid Earth is described by the equatorial components χ1 and χ2 of the polar motion excitation functions. Observationally, these so-called geodetic excitation functions of polar motion can be determined on the basis of the equations of motion by using observed x, y components of the pole. The second-degree, first-order coefficients of the Earth gravity field are proportional to variations of the equatorial component χ1, χ2 of the series of the gravimetric excitation function of polar motion. This gravimetric function can be compared with the mass term of geodetic excitation of polar motion. Our analysis comprises (1) determinations and comparisons of regional patterns of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion, and (2) comparison of the global hydrological function determined from the FGOALS-g2 and GRACE data with a hydrological signal in the geodetic excitation function of

  3. Phosphorus dynamics in lowland streams as a response to climatic, hydrological and agricultural land use gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyenola, G.; Meerhoff, M.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.;

    2015-01-01

    contrasting climate and hydrological regimes (temperate Denmark and subtropical Uruguay). We applied two alternative nutrient sampling programmes (high frequency composite sampling and low frequency instantaneous-grab sampling) and three alternative methods to estimate exported P from the catchments. A source...... were more significant than the outcome of different TP monitoring and export estimation strategies. The impact of intensification of agriculture differed between the two contrasting climate zones. Intensification had a significant impact on subtropical climate with much higher total (as high as 4436 μg...... P L-1), particulate, dissolved and reactive soluble P concentrations and higher P export (as high as 5.20 kg P ha-1 year-1). However, we did not find an increased contribution of particulate P to total P as consequence of higher stream flashiness and intensification of agriculture. The high P...

  4. Surface hydrology of drainage basins disturbed by surface mining and reclamation, central Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Infilration capacity of newly reclaimed minesoils is uniformly low (< 1 cm/hr) and generally increases (up to 6 cm/hr) with age, the magnitude of increase being dependent on soil characteristics and vegetation. In drainage basins with lower rates of infiltration recovery (< 2 cm/hr), infiltration-excess overland flow is the dominant runoff process. Increased peek runoff rate and stream power in the basins are sufficient to initiate drainage network evolution, with phases of network expansion and abstraction. In contrast, in basins where infiltration recovery is greater than 2 cm/hr, the hydrologic system is initially dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow but evolves toward a system dominated by saturation overland flow. Drainage development is limited to skeletal network initiation and elongation and occurs during the early period of infiltration-excess dominated flow conditions. Total runoff remains essentially constant due to increased proportions of return flow, reflected in the extended and less steep recession limb of saturation-dominated storm hydrographs. The results of this study are applicable to hydrologic prediction for purposes of surface mine permitting and reclamation design. Previously limited availability of rainfall-runoff data from watersheds disturbed by surface mining preclude adequate calibration of empirical methods, such as the runoff curve number method, or evaluation of a more sophisticated approach, such as the use of distributed hydrologic models, for hydrologic prediction. Runoff curve numbers calibrated by means of rainfall-runoff data from the study drainage basins indicate that presently accepted methods of determining curve numbers, using pre-mine soil classification, underestimate total runoff by as much as 50%

  5. Quantifying the role of climate and landscape characteristics on hydrologic partitioning and vegetation response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voepel, Hal; Ruddell, Benjamin; Schumer, Rina; Troch, Peter A.; Brooks, Paul D.; Neal, Andrew; Durcik, Matej; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2011-10-01

    There is no consensus on how changes in both temperature and precipitation will affect regional vegetation. We investigated controls on hydrologic partitioning at the catchment scale across many different ecoregions, and compared the resulting estimates of catchment wetting and vaporization (evapotranspiration) to remotely sensed indices of vegetation greenness. The fraction of catchment wetting vaporized by plants, known as the Horton index, is strongly related to the ratio of available energy to available water at the Earth's surface, the aridity index. Here we show that the Horton index is also a function of catchment mean slope and elevation, and is thus related to landscape characteristics that control how much and how long water is retained in a catchment. We compared the power of the components of the water and energy balance, as well as landscape characteristics, to predict Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a surrogate for vegetation productivity, at 312 Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) catchments across the United States. Statistical analysis revealed that the Horton index provides more precision in predicting maximum annual NDVI for all catchments than mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, or their ratio, the aridity index. Models of vegetation productivity should emphasize plant-available water, rather than just precipitation, by incorporating the interaction of climate and landscape. Major findings related to the Horton index are: (1) it is a catchment signature that is relatively constant from year-to-year; (2) it is related to specific landscape characteristics; (3) it can be used to create catchment typologies; and (4) it is related to overall catchment greenness.

  6. Estimating groundwater dynamics at a Colorado River floodplain site using historical hydrological data and climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jinsong; Hubbard, Susan S.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Ficklin, Darren L.

    2016-03-01

    Long-term prediction of groundwater dynamics is important for assessing water resources and their impacts on biogeochemical cycling. However, estimating future groundwater dynamics is challenging due to the wide range of spatiotemporal scales in hydrological processes and uncertainty in future climate conditions. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to combine small-scale historical hydrological data with large-scale climate information to estimate groundwater dynamics at a floodplain site in Rifle, Colorado. Although we have only a few years of groundwater elevation measurements, we have 47 years of streamflow data from a gaging station approximately 43 km upstream and long-term climate prediction on the Upper Colorado River Basin. To estimate future daily groundwater dynamics, we first develop a time series model to downscale the monthly streamflow derived from climate information to daily streamflow, and then transform the daily streamflow to groundwater dynamics at the downstream floodplain site. We use Monte Carlo methods to estimate future groundwater dynamics at the site through sampling from the joint posterior probability distribution. The results suggest that although future groundwater levels are expected to be similar to the current levels, the timing of the high groundwater levels is predicted to occur about 1 month earlier. The developed framework is extendable to other sites to estimate future groundwater dynamics given disparate data sets and climate projections. Additionally, the obtained estimates are being used as input to a site-specific watershed reactive transport models to predict how climate-induced changes will influence future biogeochemical cycling relevant to a variety of ecosystem services.

  7. On the benefit of high-resolution climate simulations in impact studies of hydrological extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Dankers

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effect of changing the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model (RCM on the simulation of hydrological extremes. We employed the results of three experiments of the RCM HIRHAM using a grid size of approximately 12, 25 and 50 km. These simulations were used to drive the hydrological model LISFLOOD, developed for flood forecasting at European scale. The discharge simulations of LISFLOOD were compared with statistics of observed river runoff at 209 gauging stations across Europe. The largest discrepancies in peak flow occurred in climates with a seasonal snow cover, which may be explained by inaccuracies in the simulated precipitation that accumulate over winter. Although previous studies have found that high resolution climate simulations result in more realistic patterns of extreme precipitation, especially in mountainous regions, we did not find conclusive evidence that the 12-km HIRHAM run generally yields a better simulation of peak discharges. At some gauging stations the model performance is increasing with increasing horizontal resolution of the RCM, while at other stations it is decreasing. However, the differences between the three experiments become less important in larger river basins. Above about 30 000 km2 and 120 000 km2, respectively, the 25- and 50-km runs generally provided a good approximation of the simulations based on the 12-km climatology. Under the A2 scenario of climate change, the changes in extreme discharge levels were similar between the three experiments at continental scale. At the scale of individual river basins, however, there were occasionally important differences. If we assume the 12-km HIRHAM simulation to be more realistic, the use of lower-resolution climate simulations may lead to an underestimation of future flood hazard. This means that results obtained with lower-resolution RCM simulations should be interpreted with care, as the grid scale of the climate

  8. Impact of Climate Seasonality on Hydrological Partitioning by Using Stochastic Soil Moisture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, M. W.; Lee, J.; Okjeong, L.; Gyeong, C. B.; Kim, S.

    2015-12-01

    As an index representing the hydrologic characteristics of the watershed, Horton index can be cited. This index is defined as the ratio of the amount of vaporization for the wetting amount and often used as a value of quantifying the water use efficiency of vegetation in the watershed. Since this index is relatively small annual fluctuations, this index is being evaluated as a good indicator of precipitation partitioning characteristics of the watershed. Thus, using this index, many studies on the relationship among the climate, terrain and vegetation of the watershed are being conducted in various ways. In this presentation, the seasonal effect of climate on the hydrologic partitioning of the watershed is analyzed using Horton index. The probability density of the soil moisture is stochastically simulated using the meteorologic date at Seoul, Daegu, Busan and Jeju observation site in the Korean peninsula and Horton index is calculated using the simulated probability density of the soil moisture. As a result of examining the relationship between Horton index and annual precipitation and annual potential evapotranspiration, annual precipitation is a strong negative correlation with Horton index, while annual potential evapotranspiration is found to have a very weak positive correlation. This means that the amount of water supplied to the watershed has a greater impact on Horton index rather than the energy fed to the watershed. In order to investigate the impact of the climate seasonality on the hydrologic partitioning, Horton index considering the climate seasonality and Horton index removing the climate seasonality are calculated, respectively. It can be seen that the seasonality has an effect in reducing Horton index. Considering Horton index is proportional to the water use efficiency of vegetation, seasonality can be thought to inhibit the vegetation water use efficiency. In addition, much more than usual precipitation in seoul with a wet climate and much less

  9. Evaluation of the transferability of hydrological model parameters for simulations under changed climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bastola

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Conceptual hydrological models are widely used for climate change impact assessment. The implicit assumption in most such work is that the parameters estimated from observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. This paper evaluates a simple threshold based approach for testing this assumption, where a set of behavioural simulators are identified for different climatic conditions for the future simulation i.e. wet, average and dry conditions. These simulators were derived using three different data sets that are generated by sampling a block of one year of data without replacement from the observations such that they define the different climatic conditions. The simulators estimated from the wet climatic data set showed the tendency to underestimate flow when applied to dry data set and vice versa. However, the performances of the three sets of basin simulators on chronologically coherent data are identical to the simulators identified from a sufficiently long data series that contains both wet and dry climatic conditions. The results presented suggest that the issue of time invariance in the value of parameters has a minimal effect on the simulation if the change in precipitation is less than 10 % of the data used for calibration.

  10. On the Potential Predictability of Seasonal Land-Surface Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J

    2001-10-01

    The chaotic behavior of the continental climate of an atmospheric general circulation model is investigated from an ensemble of decadal simulations with common specifications of radiative forcings and monthly ocean boundary conditions, but different initial states of atmosphere and land. The variability structures of key model land-surface processes appear to agree sufficiently with observational estimates to warrant detailed examination of their predictability on seasonal time scales. This predictability is inferred from several novel measures of spatio-temporal reproducibility applied to eleven model variables. The reproducibility statistics are computed for variables in which the seasonal cycle is included or excluded, the former case being most pertinent to climate model simulations, and the latter to predictions of the seasonal anomalies. Because the reproducibility metrics in the latter case are determined in the context of a ''perfectly'' known ocean state, they are properly viewed as estimates of the potential predictability of seasonal climate. Inferences based on these reproducibility metrics are shown to be in general agreement with those derived from more conventional measures of potential predictability. It is found that the land-surface variables which include the seasonal cycle are impacted only marginally by changes in initial conditions; moreover, their seasonal climatologies exhibit high spatial reproducibility. In contrast, the reproducibility of a seasonal land-surface anomaly is generally low, although it is considerably higher in the Tropics; its spatial reproducibility also fluctuates in tandem with warm and cold phases of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. However, the detailed sensitivities to initial conditions depend somewhat on the land-surface process: pressure and temperature anomalies exhibit the highest temporal reproducibilities, while hydrological and turbulent flux anomalies show the highest spatial

  11. The Eco-Hydrological Role of Physical Surface Sealing in Dry Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sela, Shai; Svoray, Tal; Assouline, Shmuel

    2016-04-01

    Soil surface sealing is a widespread natural process in dry environments occurring frequently in bare soil areas between vegetation patches. The low hydraulic conductivity that characterizes the seal layer reduces both infiltration and evaporation fluxes from the soil, and thus has the potential to affect local vegetation water availability and consequently transpiration rates. This effect is investigated here using two separate physically based models - a runoff model, and a root water uptake model. High resolution rainfall data is used to demonstrate the seal layer effect on runoff generation and vegetation water availability, while the seal layer effect on vegetation water uptake is studied using a long-term climatic dataset (44 years) from three dry sites presenting a climatic gradient in the Negev Desert, Israel. The Feddes water uptake parameters for the dominant shrub at the study site (Sarcopoterium spinosum) were acquired using an inverse calibration procedure using data from a lysimeter experiment. The results indicate that the presence of surface sealing increases significantly vegetation water availability through runoff generation. Following water infiltration, the shrub transpiration generally increases if the shrub is surrounded by a seal layer, but this effect can switch from positive to negative depending on initial soil water content, rainfall intensity, and the duration of the subsequent drying intervals. These factors have a marked effect on inter-annual variability of the seal layer effect on the shrub transpiration, which on average was found to be 26% higher under sealed conditions than in the case of unsealed soil surfaces. These results shed light on the importance of surface sealing on the eco-hydrology of dry environments and its contribution to the resilience of woody vegetation.

  12. On the utilization of hydrological modelling for road drainage design under climate and land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, Zahra; Briel, Annemarie; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

    2014-03-15

    Road drainage structures are often designed using methods that do not consider process-based representations of a landscape's hydrological response. This may create inadequately sized structures as coupled land cover and climate changes can lead to an amplified hydrological response. This study aims to quantify potential increases of runoff in response to future extreme rain events in a 61 km(2) catchment (40% forested) in southwest Sweden using a physically-based hydrological modelling approach. We simulate peak discharge and water level (stage) at two types of pipe bridges and one culvert, both of which are commonly used at Swedish road/stream intersections, under combined forest clear-cutting and future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The frequency of changes in peak flow and water level varies with time (seasonality) and storm size. These changes indicate that the magnitude of peak flow and the runoff response are highly correlated to season rather than storm size. In all scenarios considered, the dimensions of the current culvert are insufficient to handle the increase in water level estimated using a physically-based modelling approach. It also appears that the water level at the pipe bridges changes differently depending on the size and timing of the storm events. The findings of the present study and the approach put forward should be considered when planning investigations on and maintenance for areas at risk of high water flows. In addition, the research highlights the utility of physically-based hydrological models to identify the appropriateness of road drainage structure dimensioning. PMID:24480630

  13. Climatic change due to land surface alterations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, S.H.; Rao, V.B.

    1992-01-01

    A primitive equations global zonally averaged climate model is developed. The model includes biofeedback mechanisms. For the Northern Hemisphere the parameterization of biofeedback mechanisms is similar to that used by Gutman et al. For the Southern Hemisphere new parameterizations are derived. The model simulates reasonably well the mean annual zonally averaged climate and geobotanic zones. Deforestation, desertification, and irrigation experiments are performed. In the case of deforestation and desertification there is a reduction in the surface net radiation, evaporation, and precipitation and an increase in the surface temperature. In the case of irrigation experiment opposite changes occurred. In all the cases considered the changes in evapotranspiration overcome the effect of surface albedo modification. In all the experiments changes are smaller in the Southern Hemisphere.

  14. Evaluation of Airborne Lidar Elevation Surfaces for Propagation of Coastal Inundation: The Importance of Hydrologic Connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Poppenga

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Detailed information about coastal inundation is vital to understanding dynamic and populated areas that are impacted by storm surge and flooding. To understand these natural hazard risks, lidar elevation surfaces are frequently used to model inundation in coastal areas. A single-value surface method is sometimes used to inundate areas in lidar elevation surfaces that are below a specified elevation value. However, such an approach does not take into consideration hydrologic connectivity between elevation grids cells resulting in inland areas that should be hydrologically connected to the ocean, but are not. Because inland areas that should drain to the ocean are hydrologically disconnected by raised features in a lidar elevation surface, simply raising the water level to propagate coastal inundation will lead to inundation uncertainties. We took advantage of this problem to identify hydrologically disconnected inland areas to point out that they should be considered for coastal inundation, and that a lidar-based hydrologic surface should be developed with hydrologic connectivity prior to inundation analysis. The process of achieving hydrologic connectivity with hydrologic-enforcement is not new, however, the application of hydrologically-enforced lidar elevation surfaces for improved coastal inundation mapping as approached in this research is innovative. In this article, we propagated a high-resolution lidar elevation surface in coastal Staten Island, New York to demonstrate that inland areas lacking hydrologic connectivity to the ocean could potentially be included in inundation delineations. For inland areas that were hydrologically disconnected, we evaluated if drainage to the ocean was evident, and calculated an area exceeding 11 ha (~0.11 km2 that could be considered in inundation delineations. We also assessed land cover for each inland area to determine the type of physical surfaces that would be potentially impacted if the inland areas

  15. Implications for the hydrologic cycle under climate change due to the expansion of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phong V V; Kumar, Praveen; Drewry, Darren T

    2011-09-13

    To meet emerging bioenergy demands, significant areas of the large-scale agricultural landscape of the Midwestern United States could be converted to second generation bioenergy crops such as miscanthus and switchgrass. The high biomass productivity of bioenergy crops in a longer growing season linked tightly to water use highlight the potential for significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in the region. This issue is further exacerbated by the uncertainty in the response of the vegetation under elevated CO(2) and temperature. We use a mechanistic multilayer canopy-root-soil model to (i) capture the eco-physiological acclimations of bioenergy crops under climate change, and (ii) predict how hydrologic fluxes are likely to be altered from their current magnitudes. Observed data and Monte Carlo simulations of weather for recent past and future scenarios are used to characterize the variability range of the predictions. Under present weather conditions, miscanthus and switchgrass utilized more water than maize for total seasonal evapotranspiration by approximately 58% and 36%, respectively. Projected higher concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) (550 ppm) is likely to decrease water used for evapotranspiration of miscanthus, switchgrass, and maize by 12%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. However, when climate change with projected increases in air temperature and reduced summer rainfall are also considered, there is a net increase in evapotranspiration for all crops, leading to significant reduction in soil-moisture storage and specific surface runoff. These results highlight the critical role of the warming climate in potentially altering the water cycle in the region under extensive conversion of existing maize cropping to support bioenergy demand. PMID:21876137

  16. Monthly Diversions from the Surface-Water Network of the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset contains the monthly diversions from the surface-water network for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM). The Central Valley encompasses...

  17. Location of diversions from the surface-water network of the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset contains the name and location for the diversions from the surface-water network for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM). The Central...

  18. Surface-Water Network for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset contains the surface-water network for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM). The Central Valley encompasses an approximate...

  19. Grid cells used for Surface-Water Network for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset contains the segment and reaches for the surface-water network by model cell for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM). The Central Valley...

  20. Monthly inflows to the surface-water network for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset contains the monthly inflows to the surface-water network for the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM). The Central Valley encompasses an...

  1. Modelling of spatio-temporal precipitation relevant for urban hydrology with focus on scales, extremes and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen

    structures for all possible weather and not only for extreme precipitation where problems are expected. Observational data is investigated at different spatio-temporal scales and rel-evant scales for assessment of climate change for urban application are iden-tified. Four different observational data sets of......Time series of precipitation are necessary for assessment of urban hydrological systems. In a changed climate this is challenging as climate model output is not directly comparable to observations at the scales relevant for urban hydrology. The focus of this PhD thesis is downscaling of...... precipitation to spatio-temporal scales used in urban hydrology. It investigates several observational data products and identifies relevant scales where climate change and precipitation can be assessed for urban use. Precipitation is modelled at different scales using different stochastic techniques. A weather...

  2. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  3. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  4. Controls of Caribbean surface hydrology during the mid- to late Holocene: insights from monthly resolved coral records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Giry

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Several proxy-based and modeling studies have investigated long-term changes in Caribbean climate during the Holocene, however, very little is known on its variability on short timescales. Here we reconstruct seasonality and interannual to multidecadal variability of sea surface hydrology of the southern Caribbean Sea by applying paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements on fossil annually banded Diploria strigosa corals from Bonaire. This allows for better understanding of seasonal to multidecadal variability of the Caribbean hydrological cycle during the mid- to late Holocene. The monthly resolved coral Δδ18O records are used as a proxy for the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw of the southern Caribbean Sea. Consistent with modern day conditions, annual δ18Osw cycles reconstructed from three modern corals reveal that freshwater budget at the study site is influenced by both net precipitation and advection of tropical freshwater brought by wind-driven surface currents. In contrast, the annual δ18Osw cycle reconstructed from a mid-Holocene coral indicates a sharp peak towards more negative values in summer, suggesting intense summer precipitation at 6 ka BP (before present. In line with this, our model simulations indicate that increased seasonality of the hydrological cycle at 6 ka BP results from enhanced precipitation in summertime. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, the systematic positive correlation observed between reconstructed sea surface temperature and salinity suggests that freshwater discharged from the Orinoco and Amazon rivers and transported into the Caribbean by wind-driven surface currents is a critical component influencing sea surface hydrology on these timescales.

  5. Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

  6. Sensitivity of Surface Flux Simulations to Hydrologic Parameters Based on an Uncertainty Quantification Framework Applied to the Community Land Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lin, Guang; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

    2012-08-10

    Uncertainties in hydrologic parameters could have significant impacts on the simulated water and energy fluxes and land surface states, which will in turn affect atmospheric processes and the carbon cycle. Quantifying such uncertainties is an important step toward better understanding and quantification of uncertainty of integrated earth system models. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to analyze sensitivity of simulated surface fluxes to selected hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model (CLM4) through forward modeling. Thirteen flux tower footprints spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions were selected to perform sensitivity analyses by perturbing the parameters identified. In the UQ framework, prior information about the parameters was used to quantify the input uncertainty using the Minimum-Relative-Entropy approach. The quasi-Monte Carlo approach was applied to generate samples of parameters on the basis of the prior pdfs. Simulations corresponding to sampled parameter sets were used to generate response curves and response surfaces and statistical tests were used to rank the significance of the parameters for output responses including latent (LH) and sensible heat (SH) fluxes. Overall, the CLM4 simulated LH and SH show the largest sensitivity to subsurface runoff generation parameters. However, study sites with deep root vegetation are also affected by surface runoff parameters, while sites with shallow root zones are also sensitive to the vadose zone soil water parameters. Generally, sites with finer soil texture and shallower rooting systems tend to have larger sensitivity of outputs to the parameters. Our results suggest the necessity of and possible ways for parameter inversion/calibration using available measurements of latent/sensible heat fluxes to obtain the optimal parameter set for CLM4. This study also provided guidance on reduction of parameter set dimensionality and parameter

  7. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Taye

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

    The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  8. Hydrologic response of Upper Ganga basin under changing land use and climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujumdar, P.; Chawla, I.

    2013-12-01

    In the backdrop of recent devastation caused by flooding of the Ganga River in the upstream reaches of Uttarakhand region, India, it has become necessary to understand the implications of climate variability and human induced changes in landscape on the hydrology of the region. The present study assesses the effect of changing land use and climate on the hydrology of the Upper Ganga basin (UGB) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Initially, the temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) of the region are identified using high resolution multispectral satellite imageries from Landsat, for the years 1973, 1980, 2000 and 2011. The LULC analysis results show an increase in crop land and urban area in the region by 47% and 122% respectively from 1973 to 2011. After an initial decline in dense forest for three decades (from 14.5% in 1973 to 11.44% in 2000), a slight increase in dense forest is observed between 2000- 2011,from 11.44% to 14.8%. The scrub forest area and the barren land are observed to decline in the study region by 62% and 96% respectively since 1973. The land cover information along with meteorological data and soil data are used to drive the VIC model to investigate the impact of LULC changes on hydrological processes such as streamflow, baseflow, evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture in the UGB. For the simulation purpose, the basin is divided into three regions: (1) upstream, (2) midstream and (3) downstream. The VIC model is calibrated and validated for all the three regions independently at monthly time scale. The model outputs from the three regions are aggregated appropriately to generate the hydrologic response of the entire UGB. Using the calibrated model for the three regions of the UGB, sensitivity analysis is performed by generating hydrologic scenarios corresponding to different land use (LU) and climate conditions. The results from an experiment in which the climate is held constant at 1971 level and effect of

  9. Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: An experiment on 216 Australian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coron, L.; AndréAssian, V.; Perrin, C.; Lerat, J.; Vaze, J.; Bourqui, M.; Hendrickx, F.

    2012-05-01

    This paper investigates the actual extrapolation capacity of three hydrological models in differing climate conditions. We propose a general testing framework, in which we perform series of split-sample tests, testing all possible combinations of calibration-validation periods using a 10 year sliding window. This methodology, which we have called the generalized split-sample test (GSST), provides insights into the model's transposability over time under various climatic conditions. The three conceptual rainfall-runoff models yielded similar results over a set of 216 catchments in southeast Australia. First, we assessed the model's efficiency in validation using a criterion combining the root-mean-square error and bias. A relation was found between this efficiency and the changes in mean rainfall (P) but not with changes in mean potential evapotranspiration (PE) or air temperature (T). Second, we focused on average runoff volumes and found that simulation biases are greatly affected by changes in P. Calibration over a wetter (drier) climate than the validation climate leads to an overestimation (underestimation) of the mean simulated runoff. We observed different magnitudes of these models deficiencies depending on the catchment considered. Results indicate that the transfer of model parameters in time may introduce a significant level of errors in simulations, meaning increased uncertainty in the various practical applications of these models (flow simulation, forecasting, design, reservoir management, climate change impact assessments, etc.). Testing model robustness with respect to this issue should help better quantify these uncertainties.

  10. The impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle and on the water resource management of the Peribonka watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the water resource management in the Peribonka watershed by comparing the hydropower production of 3 power houses with the reliability and vulnerability associated with two climate change scenarios. The Peribonka catchment area was described along with scenarios of climate change for the watershed over a time horizon up to 2080. Synthetic time series for each scenario were then produced with a stochastic weather generator and were introduced in the HSAMI hydrological model in order to simulate future hydrological cycles. The reservoir system simulation model ResSim showed that the hydroelectric power plant Passes-Dangereuses, will experience either an increase in the annual hydroelectric production of 8 per cent or a reduction of 20 per cent, depending on the scenario considered. The simulation showed that the reliability of upstream reservoirs, namely Lakes Manouane and Peribonka, could decrease while their vulnerability could increase. This paper described the procedure used to develop the climatic change scenarios, the stages of hydrological modeling and the modeling of the hydrological cycle. The impacts of the climatic change scenarios on the flows were also presented along with a short discussion of recommendations to be considered for the next stages of the project. Subsequent stages of this water management project will relate specifically to the quantification of partial and total uncertainties associated with general circulation models, methods of reduction of scale and the applied hydrological models. 20 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

  11. Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the SIM hydrological model over France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Draper

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines whether the assimilation of remotely sensed near-surface soil moisture observations might benefit an operational hydrological model, specifically Météo-France's SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM model. Soil moisture data derived from ASCAT backscatter observations are assimilated into SIM using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter (SEKF over 3.5 years. The benefit of the assimilation is tested by comparison to a delayed cut-off version of SIM, in which the land surface is forced with more accurate atmospheric analyses, due to the availability of additional atmospheric observations after the near-real time data cut-off. However, comparing the near-real time and delayed cut-off SIM models revealed that the main difference between them is a dry bias in the near-real time precipitation forcing, which resulted in a dry bias in the root-zone soil moisture and associated surface moisture flux forecasts. While assimilating the ASCAT data did reduce the root-zone soil moisture dry bias (by nearly 50%, this was more likely due to a bias within the SEKF, than due to the assimilation having accurately responded to the precipitation errors. Several improvements to the assimilation are identified to address this, and a bias-aware strategy is suggested for explicitly correcting the model bias. However, in this experiment the moisture added by the SEKF was quickly lost from the model surface due to the enhanced surface fluxes (particularly drainage induced by the wetter soil moisture states. Consequently, by the end of each winter, during which frozen conditions prevent the ASCAT data from being assimilated, the model land surface had returned to its original (dry-biased climate. This highlights that it would be more effective to address the precipitation bias directly, than to correct it by constraining the model soil moisture through data assimilation.

  12. Toward improving our understanding of climate change during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly using hydrologic models of the Walker River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, D. P.; Barth, C.; Bassett, S.; Garner, C.

    2013-12-01

    Walker lake, similar to other closed basin lakes in the mid-latitudinal dry lands, serves as an indicator of past climate change before the hydrologic system of the basin was altered through agricultural activities beginning in the mid to late 1800s. There have been a number of studies aimed at collecting a diverse set of proxy data to better understand the lake level fluctuations of Walker Lake during the Holocene. These data sets include biological proxies such as diatom, ostracod, pollen sources, isotope dating of sediment cores, sediment chemistry, paleomagnetic susceptibility, the dating of tufa deposits and analysis of stromatolites from the lake shores, near lake tree stump and shrub evidence, and geomorphological evidence of various lake stages. Lake level chronologies have been developed and reported based on this diverse set of proxy information. In this study, a simple, spatially distributed hydrologic model was applied to the Walker River Basin from the headwaters in the Sierra Nevada to the terminus at Walker Lake to simulate the watershed and lake responses associated with changes in precipitation and temperature. Experiments were conducted with the model to better understand how the climate might have been different (compared with the modern 30-year normal values) during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA). The model was also used to investigate previously reported hypotheses that at times during or near the MCA, the Walker River may have been diverted through Adrian Gap into the Carson Sink leading to decreasing lake levels and even desiccation of Walker Lake. Our modeling results indicate that the MCA low stand lake levels can be sustained with 60% to 70% of modern precipitation and that it is unlikely that the low levels of Walker Lake during the MCA were a result of a breakout of the Walker River at Adrian Gap.

  13. Cretaceous desert cycles, wind direction and hydrologic cycle variations in Ordos Basin:Evidence for Cretaceous climatic unequability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Xinsheng; PAN Zhongxi; XIE Yuan; LI Minghui

    2004-01-01

    Climatic state under greenhouse effect is a currently hot point. Whether greenhouse climate in geological history, especially in Cretaceous, was equable or not has aroused extensive discussion. By analysis on depositional cyclcity, wind direction change and hydrologic cycle variation of Cretaceous desert in the Ordos Basin of China, the unequability of Cretaceous climate is dealt. It is shown that Cretaceous climate was extremely cyclic, not only having long and mid term but also having strong seasonal even instantaneous changes. Therefore, it is suggested that Cretaceous climate was not equable.

  14. Cretaceous desert cycles, wind direction and hydrologic cycle variations in Ordos Basin: Evidence for Cretaceous climatic unequability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG; Xinsheng; PAN; Zhongxi; XIE; Yuan; LI; Minghui

    2004-01-01

    Climatic state under greenhouse effect is a currently hot point. Whether greenhouse climate in geological history, especially in Cretaceous, was equable or not has aroused extensive discussion. By analysis on depositional cyclcity, wind direction change and hydrologic cycle variation of Cretaceous desert in the Ordos Basin of China, the unequability of Cretaceous climate is dealt. It is shown that Cretaceous climate was extremely cyclic, not only having long and mid term but also having strong seasonal even instantaneous changes. Therefore, it is suggested that Cretaceous climate was not equable.

  15. Wetlands as a Record of Climate Change and Hydrological Response in Arid Rift Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, G. M.

    2004-12-01

    Of all the terrestrial depositional settings, rift basins typically provide the greatest accommodation space, and consequently have some of the longest records of continental sedimentation. Lake deposits were the only rift component studied for records of long-term climatic change and for testing hypotheses of orbital forcing. Recently, the continuing quest for the paleontological and cultural records of human origins entombed in the sedimentary rocks of the East African Rift System raised questions concerning hydrologic and biologic response to climatic change. Additional issues are the impact of climate on paleolandscapes and the environmental stresses that might have affected human evolution. Other important indicators of rift hydrology, such as springs and wetlands are now emerging as viable records of climate change. Rift valley basins are shallow, hydrologically closed systems that are responsive to shifts in climate, and specifically sensitive to changes in the hydrologic budget (P-ET). Long term wet-dry cycles in the low latitudes are thought to be astronomically controlled, i.e. Milankovitch precession cycles (19-23 ka). In the tropics, precipitation (P) varies with changes in solar insolation which fluctuates similarly. Springs and groundwater-fed wetlands are common, however the sources and sustainability of water or what geologic factors lead to the formation and longevity of wetlands is not well established. It appears that rainfall is trapped on topographic highs (rift fault blocks and volcanoes). This meteoric water infiltrates quickly through porous volcanic rocks and is stored in aquifers and released slowly. As a component of the rift hydrologic system, wetlands appear to be reliable indicators of rainfall fluctuations on both Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch time scales. Wetland sediments are commoner in the geologic record during times of higher rainfall and are less common during drier periods. Modern arid rift wetland records are peats and

  16. Utilization of Hydrologic Remote Sensing Data in Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation: Current Status and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Reichl, Rolf; Harrison, Kenneth; Santanello, Joseph

    2010-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have enabled the monitoring and measurement of the Earth's land surface at an unprecedented scale and frequency. The myriad of these land surface observations must be integrated with the state-of-the-art land surface model forecasts using data assimilation to generate spatially and temporally coherent estimates of environmental conditions. These analyses are of critical importance to real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management and flood, drought, weather and climate prediction. This need motivated the development of NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an expert system encapsulating a suite of modeling, computational and data assimilation tools required to address challenging hydrological problems. LIS integrates the use of several community land surface models, use of ground and satellite based observations, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation techniques and high performance computing and data management tools to enable the assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales of interest. This presentation will focus on describing the results, challenges and lessons learned from the use of remote sensing data for improving land surface modeling, within LIS. More specifically, studies related to the improved estimation of soil moisture, snow and land surface temperature conditions through data assimilation will be discussed. The presentation will also address the characterization of uncertainty in the modeling process through Bayesian remote sensing and computational methods.

  17. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yuzhou; Ficklin, Darren L; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-04-15

    The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change. PMID:23467178

  18. Hydrological changes of DOM composition and biodegradability of rivers in temperate monsoon climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yera; Lee, Eun-Ju; Jeon, Young-Joon; Hur, Jin; Oh, Neung-Hwan

    2016-09-01

    The spatial and hydrological dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition and biodegradability were investigated for the five largest rivers in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) during the years 2012-2013 using incubation experiments and spectroscopic measurements, which included parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). The lower reaches of the five rivers were selected as windows showing the integrated effects of basin biogeochemistry of different land use under Asian monsoon climates, providing an insight on consistency of DOM dynamics across multiple sites which could be difficult to obtain from a study on an individual river. The mean dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations of the five rivers were relatively low, ranging from 1.4 to 3.4 mg L-1, due to the high slope and low percentage of wetland cover in the basin. Terrestrial humic- and fulvic-like components were dominant in all the rivers except for one, where protein-like compounds were up to ∼80%. However, terrestrial components became dominant in all five of the rivers after high precipitation during the summer monsoon season, indicating the strong role of hydrology on riverine DOM compositions for the basins under Asian monsoon climates. Considering that 64% of South Korea is forested, our results suggest that the forests could be a large source of riverine DOM, elevating the DOM loads during monsoon rainfall. Although more DOM was degraded when DOM input increased, regardless of its sources, the percent biodegradability was reduced with increased proportions of terrestrially derived aromatic compounds. The shift in DOM quality towards higher percentages of aromatic terrestrial compounds may alter the balance of the carbon cycle of coastal ecosystems by changing microbial metabolic processes if climate extremes such as heavy storms and typhoons become more frequent due to climate change.

  19. Assessing Low Frequency Climate Signals in Global Circulation Models using an Integrated Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.

    2010-12-01

    Climate signals with periodicities of approximately one decade are pervasive in long-term streamflow records for streams in the western United States that receive significant baseflow. The driver of these signals is unknown but hypotheses have been presented, such as variations in solar input to the Earth, or harmonics of internal (i.e., processes in the ocean and troposphere) forcings like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate signals of about 1 decade are important for several reasons, including their relation to climate extremes (i.e., droughts and floods), and because the drivers of these climate signals are clearly important for projecting future climate conditions. Furthermore, identifying the drivers of these climate signals is important for separating the relative impacts of human production of greenhouse gases on global warming verses external drivers of climate change, such as sunspot cycles. Studies using Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that do not incorporate solar forcings associated with sun spots have identified oscillations of about a decade long in certain model output. However, these oscillations can be difficult to identify in simulated precipitation data due to high frequency variations (less than 1 year) that obscure low frequency (decade) signals. We have found that simulations using an integrated hydrologic model (IHM) called GSFLOW reproduce decade-long oscillations in streamflow when driven by measured precipitation records, and that these oscillations are also present in simulated streamflow when driven by temperature and precipitation data projected by GCMs. Because the IHM acts as a low-pass filter that reveals low frequency signals (i.e. decadal oscillations), they can be used to assess GCMs in terms of their ability to reproduce important low-frequency climate oscillations. We will present results from GSFLOW applied to three basins in the eastern Sierra Nevada driven by 100 years of

  20. GRACE-derived surface water mass anomalies by energy integral approach: application to continental hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramillien, Guillaume; Biancale, R.; Gratton, S.; Vasseur, X.; Bourgogne, S.

    2011-06-01

    We propose an unconstrained approach to recover regional time-variations of surface mass anomalies using Level-1 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) orbit observations, for reaching spatial resolutions of a few hundreds of kilometers. Potential differences between the twin GRACE vehicles are determined along short satellite tracks using the energy integral method (i.e., integration of orbit parameters vs. time) in a quasi-inertial terrestrial reference frame. Potential differences residuals corresponding mainly to changes in continental hydrology are then obtained after removing the gravitational effects of the known geophysical phenomena that are mainly the static part of the Earth's gravity field and time-varying contributions to gravity (Sun, Moon, planets, atmosphere, ocean, tides, variations of Earth's rotation axis) through ad hoc models. Regional surface mass anomalies are restored from potential difference anomalies of 10 to 30-day orbits onto 1◦ continental grids by regularization techniques based on singular value decomposition. Error budget analysis has been made by considering the important effects of spectrum truncation, the time length of observation (or spatial coverage of the data to invert) and for different levels of noise.

  1. Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Ficklin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the

  2. Landscape and Hydrological Transformation in the Canadian High Arctic: Climate Change and Permafrost Degradation As Drivers of Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamoureux, S. F.; Lafreniere, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    Recent climate warming and landscape instability arising from permafrost degradation in the Canadian High Arctic have resulted in significant changes to the hydrological system. We have undertaken an integrated watershed and permafrost research program at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (75°N, 109°W) in paired watershed-lake systems to assess the impact of these changes. Research has captured hydrological changes resulting from exceptional warmth, and permafrost degradation and disturbance. Results highlight the contrasting effect of thermal (deeper soil thaw) versus physical perturbation (slope failures and permafrost degradation). Thermal perturbation applies to most of the landscape, and results indicate that ground ice melt alters flow and mobilizes solutes for a number of years following a single warm year. These effects are measureable at the slope-catchment scale, especially during baseflow. By contrast, physical disturbance is highly localized and produces high sediment and particulate carbon erosion from slopes, but downstream particulate delivery is dependent on surface connectivity. Recovery from disturbances appears to occur rapidly, and continued geomorphic change and new slope channels result in sustained delivery of particulates to channels. The result is increased long term landscape heterogeneity with respect to erosion compared to the pre-disturbance condition. Downstream channel response to particulate loading further dampens the response to physical disturbance through channel storage of material. Hence, at the larger watershed scale, the effect of physical perturbation is minimal in the initial years of recovery. These results point to a landscape that has been substantially impacted by recent hydrological and permafrost changes. Understanding and distinguishing these impacts provides a basis for systematically evaluating biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem responses in aquatic settings.

  3. Increasing the reliability of the Olkiluoto surface and near-surface hydrological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the study was to improve the reliability of the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model that calculates the overall water balance components of Olkiluoto Island. ONKALO and Korvensuo reservoir were added as explicit structures to the model. The model links the unsaturated and saturated soil water in the overburden and groundwater in bedrock to a continuous pressure system. With the model it is possible to evaluate the influence of water leaking to ONKALO on groundwater level in overburden soils and pressure head in shallow bedrock drillholes. Anisotropy was added to the surface hydrological model and several model runs were carried out using anisotropy factors 1, 5 and 10. Anisotropy factor of 10 is used in the 2008 version of the deep hydrogeological model and the same anisotropy will be used in future calculations of the surface hydrological model to ensure consistency of the parameter values in the two models. The correspondence between measured and computed groundwater levels has been improved due to new soil type delineation and the calibration of the soil water retention curve parameters. Computed groundwater level variation can be characterized by a measure ΔHCOMP, which is difference between maximum and minimum value during the calibration period. Average ΔHCOMP in groundwater tubes was 1.98 m and the corresponding measured value ΔHMEAS was 2.08 m, i.e. the difference between measured and computed value was around 0.1 m (0.16 m in the 2007 version). Temporal variation (difference between maximum and minimum pressure head) was simulated well also in most of the shallow bedrock drillholes. ONKALO was added to the 2008 version of the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model. Influence of ONKALO is taken into account by giving the total discharge as input data from existing measurements or from calculations of the deep hydrogeological model of the Olkiluoto Island. The computed results show that ONKALO has a temporal effect on groundwater level in the

  4. Radar monitoring of hydrology in Maryland's forested coastal plain wetlands: Implications for predicted climate change and improved mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner Lang, Megan

    Wetlands provide important services to society but Mid-Atlantic wetlands are at high risk for loss, with forested wetlands being especially vulnerable. Hydrology (flooding and soil moisture) controls wetland function and extent but it may be altered due to changes in climate and anthropogenic influence. Wetland hydrology must better understood in order to predict and mitigate the impact of these changes. Broad-scale forested wetland hydrology is difficult to monitor using ground-based and traditional remote sensing methods. C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could improve the capability to monitor forested wetland hydrology but the abilities and limitations of these data need further investigation. This study examined: (1) the link between climate and wetland hydrology; (2) the ability of ENVISAT SAR (C-HH and C-VV) data to monitor inundation and soil moisture in forested wetlands; (3) limitations inherent to C-band data (incidence angle, polarization, and phenology) when monitoring forested wetland hydrology; and (4) the accuracy of forested wetland maps produced using SAR data. The study was primarily conducted near the Patuxent River in Maryland but the influence of incidence angle was considered along the Roanoke River in North Carolina. This study showed: (1) climate was highly correlated with wetland inundation; (2) significant differences in C-VV and C-HH backscatter existed between forested areas of varying hydrology (uplands and wetlands) throughout the year; (3) C-HH backscatter was better correlated to hydrology than C-VV backscatter; (4) correlations were stronger during the leaf-off season; (5) the difference in backscatter between flooded and non-flooded areas did not sharply decline with incidence angle, as predicted; and (6) maps produced using SAR data had relatively high accuracy levels. Based on these findings, I concluded that hydrology is influenced by climate at the study site, and C-HH data should be able to monitor changes in

  5. Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios in the Lena and the Mackenzie basins: modeling and uncertainty issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfan, Alexander; Gustafsson, David; Motovilov, Yury; Arheimer, Berit; Kalugin, Andrei; Krylenko, Inna; Lavrenov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The ECOMAG and the HYPE regional hydrological models were setup to assess possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of two pan-Arctic great drainage basins: the Lena and the Mackenzie rivers. We firstly assessed the reliability of the hydrological models to reproduce the historical streamflow series and analyse the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in three 30-year periods: early- (2006-2035), mid- (2036-2065) and end-century (2070-2099) using an ensemble of five GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Results show, particularly, that the basins react with multi-year delay to changes in the RCP2.6 mitigation (peak-and-decline) scenario, and consequently to the potential mitigation measures. Then we assessed the hydrological projections' uncertainty, which is caused by the GCM's and RCP's variabilities, and indicated that the uncertainty rises with the time horizon of the projection and, generally, the uncertainty interval is wider for Mackenzie than for Lena. We finally compare the potential future hydrological impacts predicted based on the GCM-scenario ensemble approach and the delta-change transformation method of the historical observations. We found that the latter method can produce useful information about the climate change impact in the great Arctic rivers, at least for the nearest decades.

  6. The influence of the hydrologic cycle on the extent of sea ice with climatic implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analysis techniques and models are being developed to provide a basis to investigate the role of the hydrologic cycle on the extent of sea ice throughout the Arctic Basin and hence its net influence on regional as well as global climate. A predicted global climatic warming may have a pronounced effect on the Arctic environment including a decrease in the extent of sea ice. This will affect the fluxes of heat and moisture transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere in the region, as well as the arctic marine ecosystem. Rivers are an important source of thermal energy and fresh water to this marine environment. The magnitude of the influence of the rivers is being assessed in a limited region offshore of Alaska and Canada (Mackenzie River). This region was chosen for logistical reasons and because of the availability of supporting field data. Two numerical models are being developed to assess the effect of the hydrologic cycle on the break-up and formation of sea ice, and to evaluate the associated heat and moisture fluxes at the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interface. A break-up model will simulate the river discharge as a fresh water plume which provides sensible heat to the nearshore sea ice-ocean environment, and affects the radiation budget of the sea ice by significantly altering its albedo. The second model is a mixed-layer model of the oceanic salinity-temperature regime to predict the initial formation of the sea ice cover as a function of late summer oceanic stratification and autumn meteorological conditions. Satellite imagery, hydrologic field measurements and meteorological data will be used for the calibration and testing of the models

  7. Periodicity of Climatic, Hydrological and Lacustrine Sedimentation Processes in the South of the East-European Plain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lisetskii, F.N.; Stolba, Vladimir; Pichura, V.I.

    2013-01-01

    s did not result in an increase in the water volume in the Dnieper. This suggests that the declining sensitivity of the hydrological cycles to the climatic rhythms is the effect of a strong anthropogenic impact. Accordingly, the Dnieper water-volume formation period (1900–1946) optimal for...... make it possible to define the contribution of annual sums of precipitation and air temperature to the riverine discharge, the study has established the climatic dependence of the hydrological processes. It has also demonstrated that an essential increase in the annual precipitation sums since the 1940...... simulation has been defined, which most accurately reflects the impact of natural climatic factors on the riverine discharge. The regression model for the conditions when the water discharge is over 1686 m3/s can be used for prognosis (and retrognosis) of extreme hydrological events in the south of the East...

  8. Hydrology of surface waters and thermohaline circulation during the last glacial period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sedimentological studies on oceanic cores from the north Atlantic have revealed, over the last glacial period, abrupt climatic changes with a periodicity of several thousand years which contrasts strongly with the glacial-interglacial periodicity (several tens of thousand years). These periods of abrupt climate changes correspond to massive icebergs discharges into the north Atlantic. The aim of this work was to study the evolution of the thermohaline circulation in relation to these episodic iceberg discharges which punctuated the last 60 ka. To reconstruct the oceanic circulation in the past, we have analysed oxygen and carbon stable isotopes on benthic foraminifera from north Atlantic deep-sea cores. First of all, the higher temporal resolution of sedimentary records has enabled us to establish a precise chrono-stratigraphy for the different cores. Then, we have shown the close linkage between surface water hydrology and deep circulation, giving evidence of the sensibility of thermohaline circulation to melt water input in the north Atlantic ocean. Indeed, changes in deep circulation are synchronous from those identified in surface waters and are recorded on a period which lasted ∼ 1500 years. Deep circulation reconstructions, before and during a typical iceberg discharge reveal several modes of circulation linked to different convection sites at the high latitudes of the Atlantic basin. Moreover, the study of the last glacial period gives the opportunity to differentiate circulation changes due to the external forcing (variations of the orbital parameters) and those linked to a more local forcing (icebergs discharges). 105 refs., 50 figs., 14 tabs., 4 appends

  9. On improving cold region hydrological processes in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganji, Arman; Sushama, Laxmi; Verseghy, Diana; Harvey, Richard

    2015-09-01

    Regional and global climate model simulated streamflows for high-latitude regions show systematic biases, particularly in the timing and magnitude of spring peak flows. Though these biases could be related to the snow water equivalent and spring temperature biases in models, a good part of these biases is due to the unaccounted effects of non-uniform infiltration capacity of the frozen ground and other related processes. In this paper, the treatment of frozen water in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), which is used in the Canadian regional and global climate models, is modified to include fractional permeable area, supercooled liquid water and a new formulation for hydraulic conductivity. The impact of these modifications on the regional hydrology, particularly streamflow, is assessed by comparing three simulations performed with the original and two modified versions of CLASS, driven by atmospheric forcing data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-Interim) for the 1990-2001 period over a northeast Canadian domain. The two modified versions of CLASS differ in the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential formulations, with one version being based on formulations from a previous study and the other one is newly proposed. Results suggest statistically significant decreases in infiltration and therefore soil moisture during the snowmelt season for the simulation with the new hydraulic conductivity and matric potential formulations and fractional permeable area concept compared to the original version of CLASS, which is also reflected in the increased spring surface runoff and streamflows in this simulation with modified CLASS over most of the study domain. The simulated spring peaks and their timing in this simulation are also in better agreement to those observed. This study thus demonstrates the importance of treatment of frozen water for realistic simulation of streamflows.

  10. Climate-vegetation-soil interactions and long-term hydrologic partitioning: signatures of catchment co-evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Troch

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Catchment hydrologic partitioning, regional vegetation composition and soil properties are strongly affected by climate, but the effects of climate-vegetation-soil interactions on river basin water balance are still poorly understood. Here we use a physically-based hydrologic model separately parameterized in 12 US catchments across a climate gradient to decouple the impact of climate and landscape properties to gain insight into the role of climate-vegetation-soil interactions in long-term hydrologic partitioning. The 12 catchment models (with different parameterizations are subjected to the 12 different climate forcings, resulting in 144 10-yr model simulations. The results are analyzed per catchment (one catchment model subjected to 12 climates and per climate (one climate filtered by 12 different model parameterization, and compared to water balance predictions based on Budyko's hypothesis (E/P = φ (EP/P; E: evaporation, P: precipitation, EP: potential evaporation. We find significant anti-correlation between average deviations of the evaporation index (E/P computed per catchment vs. per climate, compared to that predicted by Budyko. Catchments that on average produce more E/P have developed in climates that on average produce less E/P, when compared to Budyko's prediction. Water and energy seasonality could not explain these observations, confirming previous results reported by Potter et al. (2005. Next, we analyze which model (i.e., landscape filter characteristics explain the catchment's tendency to produce more or less E/P. We find that the time scale that controls perched aquifer storage release explains the observed trend. This time scale combines several geomorphologic and hydraulic soil properties. Catchments with relatively longer aquifer storage release time scales produce significantly more E/P. Vegetation in these catchments have longer access to this additional groundwater source and thus are less prone to water stress. Further

  11. Using a stochastic hydrological model to study the sensitivity of flood frequency to climate change (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantet, Philippe; Arnaud, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    The great interest in climate change during the past 20 years has led to a quasi unanimous conclusion for scientists: the Earth's climate is changing (IPCC 2013). It is important to know if this global change could lead to an increase in extreme events in order to prevent hydrological risks. In this work, the analysis of the climate change impact on flood was studied by a chain formed by projections (provided by climate models under SRES scenarios) and a stochastic hydrological model. The National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (Irstea) has developed an original method for flood frequency analysis applied on the whole French territory: the SHYREG method (Arnaud et al., 2008). It generates sequentially a lot of rainfall events at an hourly time step for which a rainfall-runoff transformation is performed. The stochastic rainfall generator has three parameters which are estimated by average, not by extreme, values of daily climatic characteristics. Few parameters enable to run the rainfall-runoff model. These parameters have been regionalized on the whole French territory in order to estimate rainfall/flood quantiles at the spatial resolution of 1 km². The rainfall model shows a good skill in reproducing extreme rainfall frequency (Carreau et al., 2013) and has been already used in a climate change context to detect trends in extreme rainfall (Cantet et al., 2011). (Boé at al., 2006) propose climate projections on France at a 8km horizontal spatial resolution with daily rainfall available for two periods: reference period (1981-2000) and the end of the 21th century (2081-2100) under three SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2). The parameters of the rainfall model can be easily estimated for the different periods and scenarios and so, the sensitivity of flood frequency to the climate change can be studied under some hypothesis. First, the performance of the climatic model to reproduce extreme rainfall has been tested throughout

  12. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model that...

  13. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karvonen, T. [WaterHope, Helsinki (Finland)

    2013-11-15

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  14. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  15. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Soil water availability is one of the main components of the terroir concept, influencing crop yield and fruit composition in grapes. The aim of this work is to analyze some elements of the "natural environment" of terroir (climate and soil) in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. From a reference (1961-90) to a future (2021-50) climate case, the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability are assessed and, regarding soil water regime as a predictor variable, the potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars is determined. In a region of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, 20,000 ha), where a terroir classification has been produced (Bonfante et al., 2011), we applied an agro-hydrological model to determine water availability indicators. Simulations were performed in 60 soil typological units, over the entire study area, and water availability (= hydrological) indicators were determined. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of predictions by general circulation models (AOGCM) under A1B SRES scenario. Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological indicators was addressed. With respect to temporal variability, both inter-annual and intra-annual (i.e. at different stages of crop cycle) variability were analyzed. Some cultivar-specific relations between hydrological indicators and characteristics of must quality were established. Moreover, for several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to soil water availability, through the re-analysis of experimental data derived from scientific literature. The standard errors of estimated

  16. The Impact of Microwave-Derived Surface Soil Moisture on Watershed Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONeill, P. E.; Hsu, A. Y.; Jackson, T. J.; Wood, E. F.; Zion, M.

    1997-01-01

    The usefulness of incorporating microwave-derived soil moisture information in a semi-distributed hydrological model was demonstrated for the Washita '92 experiment in the Little Washita River watershed in Oklahoma. Initializing the hydrological model with surface soil moisture fields from the ESTAR airborne L-band microwave radiometer on a single wet day at the start of the study period produced more accurate model predictions of soil moisture than a standard hydrological initialization with streamflow data over an eight-day soil moisture drydown.

  17. Plot-scale field experiment of surface hydrologic processes with EOS implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laymon, Charles A.; Macari, Emir J.; Costes, Nicholas C.

    1992-01-01

    Plot-scale hydrologic field studies were initiated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to a) investigate the spatial and temporal variability of surface and subsurface hydrologic processes, particularly as affected by vegetation, and b) develop experimental techniques and associated instrumentation methodology to study hydrologic processes at increasingly large spatial scales. About 150 instruments, most of which are remotely operated, have been installed at the field site to monitor ground atmospheric conditions, precipitation, interception, soil-water status, and energy flux. This paper describes the nature of the field experiment, instrumentation and sampling rationale, and presents preliminary findings.

  18. Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Management in the Skagit River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEE, S.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2012-12-01

    Based on global climate model (GCM) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) and subsequent hydrologic modeling studies for the Pacific Northwest, the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the Skagit River Basin are likely to be substantial under natural (unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of increasing extreme flows (floods and low flows) and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily time step reservoir operations model was built for the Skagit River Basin. The model simulates current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s and 2080s using five different GCMs with the A1B emissions scenarios, and estimates sediment loading. By simulating alternative reservoir operating policies that provide increased flood storage and start flood evacuation one month earlier, prospects for adaptation in response to increased flood risks are considered. Results from the daily time step reservoir operations modeling show that regulated hydrologic extremes in the basin will likely become more intense. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase substantially in the future in comparison with historical regulated 100-year flood (23% by the 2040s and 40% by the 2080s). The regulated extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) are also projected to decrease by about 30 % in the future. Alternative flood control operations (earlier and larger drafting of reservoirs) are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating the increased flood risks in the lower Skagit, supporting the argument that climate change adaptation efforts will need to focus primarily on improving management of the floodplain, rather than focusing on modifying flood control operations in existing headwater projects. Projected changes in the Skagit River's flow regime are shown to have dramatic effects on estimated total suspended sediment load in the

  19. Recent climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological changes over the interior of western Canada: a review and synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, Chris M.; Wheater, Howard S.; Carey, Sean K.; Chun, Kwok P.

    2016-04-01

    It is well established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological regimes in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) introduced in this review seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve the capacity to predict future change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the observed changes in various Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid- or late 20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and data sets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Increases in air temperature are the most notable changes within the domain, rising on average 2 °C throughout the western interior since 1950. This increase in air temperature is associated with hydrologically important changes to precipitation regimes and unambiguous declines in snow cover depth, persistence, and spatial extent. Consequences of warming air temperatures have caused mountain glaciers to recede at all latitudes, permafrost to thaw at its southern limit, and active layers over permafrost to thicken

  20. Role of the hydrological cycle in regulating the planetary climate system of a simple nonlinear dynamical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Nordstrom

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the construction of a dynamic area fraction model (DAFM, representing a new class of models for an earth-like planet. The model presented here has no spatial dimensions, but contains coupled parameterizations for all the major components of the hydrological cycle involving liquid, solid and vapor phases. We investigate the nature of feedback processes with this model in regulating Earth's climate as a highly nonlinear coupled system. The model includes solar radiation, evapotranspiration from dynamically competing trees and grasses, an ocean, an ice cap, precipitation, dynamic clouds, and a static carbon greenhouse effect. This model therefore shares some of the characteristics of an Earth System Model of Intermediate complexity. We perform two experiments with this model to determine the potential effects of positive and negative feedbacks due to a dynamic hydrological cycle, and due to the relative distribution of trees and grasses, in regulating global mean temperature. In the first experiment, we vary the intensity of insolation on the model's surface both with and without an active (fully coupled water cycle. In the second, we test the strength of feedbacks with biota in a fully coupled model by varying the optimal growing temperature for our two plant species (trees and grasses. We find that the negative feedbacks associated with the water cycle are far more powerful than those associated with the biota, but that the biota still play a significant role in shaping the model climate. third experiment, we vary the heat and moisture transport coefficient in an attempt to represent changing atmospheric circulations.

  1. Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrological system used in the CNRM-CM6 climate model for the next CMIP6 exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decharme, Bertrand; Vergnes, Jean-Pierre; Minvielle, Marie; Colin, Jeanne; Delire, Christine

    2016-04-01

    The land surface hydrology represents an active component of the climate system. It is likely to influence the water and energy exchanges at the land surface, the ocean salinity and temperature at the mouth of the largest rivers, and the climate at least at the regional scale. In climate models, the continental hydrology is simulated via Land Surface Models (LSM), which compute water and energy budgets at the surface, coupled to River Routing Model (RRM), which convert the runoff simulated by the LSMs into river discharge in order to transfer the continental fresh water into the oceans and then to close the global hydrological cycle. Validating these Continental Hydrological Systems (CHS) at the global scale is therefore a crucial task, which requires off-line simulations driven by realistic atmospheric fluxes to avoid the systematic biases commonly found in the atmospheric models. In the CNRM-CM6 climate model of Météo-France, that will be used for the next Coupled Climate Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) exercise, the land surface hydrology is simulated using the ISBA-TRIP CHS coupled via the OASIS-MCT coupler. The ISBA LSM solves explicitly the one dimensional Fourier law for soil temperature and the mixed form of the Richards equation for soil moisture using a 14-layers discretization over 12m depths. For the snowpack, a discretization using 12 layers allows the explicit representation of some snow key processes as its viscosity, its compaction due to wind, its age and its albedo on the visible and near infrared spectra. The TRIP RRM uses a global river channel network at 0.5° resolution. It is based on a three prognostic equations for the surface stream water, the seasonal floodplains, and the groundwater. The streamflow velocity is computed using the Maning's formula. The floodplain reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the river bankfull height and vice-versa. The flood interacts with the ISBA soil hydrology through infiltration and with

  2. Hydrologic drivers of tree biodiversity: The impact of climate change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Konar, M.; Muneepeerakul, R.; Azaele, S.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rinaldo, A.

    2009-12-01

    Biodiversity of forests is of major importance for society. The possible impact of climate change on the characteristics of tree diversity is a topic of crucial importance with relevant implications for conservation campaigns and resource management. Here we present the main results of the expected biodiversity changes in the Mississippi-Missouri River Basin (MMRS) and two of its subregions under different scenarios of possible climate change. A mechanistic neutral metapopulation model is developed to study the main drivers of large scale biodiversity signatures in the MMRS system. The region is divided into 824 Direct Tributary Areas (DTAs), each one characterized by its own habitat capacity. Data for the spatial occurrence of the 231 species present in the system is taken from the US Forest Service Inventory and Analysis Database. The model has permeable boundaries to account for immigration from the regions surrounding the MMRS. The model accounts for key aspects of ecological dynamics (e.g., birth, death, speciation, and migration) and is fundamentally driven by the mean annual precipitation characteristic of each of the DTAs in the system. It is found that such a simple model, with only four parameters, yields an excellent representation of the observed local species richness (LSR), between-community (β) diversity, and species rank-occupancy function. The mean annual rainfall of each DTA is then changed according to the climate scenarios and new habitat capacities are thus obtained throughout the MMRS and its subregions. The resulting large-scale biodiversity signatures are computed and compared with those of the present scenario, showing that there are very important changes arising from the climate change conditions. For the dry scenarios, it is shown that there is a considerable decrease of species richness, both at local and regional scales, and a contraction of species' geographic ranges. These findings link the hydrologic and ecological dynamics of the

  3. Climatic and Hydrological Changes of Past 100 Years in Asian Arid Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhaodong; Salnikov, Vitaliy; Xu, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The Asian Arid Zone (AAZ) is here defined to include the following regions: northwestern China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Generally speaking, the AAZ has experienced a temperature rising during the past 100 years that was significantly faster than the global average (0.14 ºC per decade). Specifically, the rate was 0.39 ºC per decade in northwestern China (1950-2010), 0.26 ºC per decade in Kazakhstan (1936-2005), 0.22 ºC per decade in Mongolia (1940-2010), 0.29 ºC per decade in Uzbekistan (1950-2005), 0.18 ºC per decade in Turkmenistan (1961-1995). It should be noted that the mountainous parts of AAZ seems to have experienced a slower rate of temperature rising. For example, the rate was 0.10 ºC per decade in Tajikistan (1940-2005) and was 0.08 ºC per decade in Kyrgyzstan (1890-2005). Precipitation has a slight increasing trend in northwestern China, but it has fluctuated along a near-constant line in the rest of the AAZ. Hydrological data from high-elevation basin show that the runoff has been increasing primarily as a result of rising temperature that caused increases in ice melting. A natural decreasing trend of surface runoff in low-elevation basins is undeniable and the decreasing trend is attributable to intensified evaporation under warming conditions. It is true that the total amount of runoff in the Tianshan Mountains and the associated basins has been increased primarily as a result of temperature rising-resulted increases in ice melting. But, approaching to the turning point of glacier-melting supplies to runoff will pose a great threat to socio-economic sustainability and to ecological security. The turning point refers to the transition from increasing runoff to decreasing runoff within ice melting supplied watersheds under a warming climate.

  4. Climate-vegetation-soil interactions and long-term hydrologic partitioning: signatures of catchment co-evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Troch

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Budyko (1974 postulated that long-term catchment water balance is controlled to first order by the available water and energy. This leads to the interesting question of how do landscape characteristics (soils, geology, vegetation and climate properties (precipitation, potential evaporation, number of wet and dry days interact at the catchment scale to produce such a simple and predictable outcome of hydrological partitioning? Here we use a physically-based hydrologic model separately parameterized in 12 US catchments across a climate gradient to decouple the impact of climate and landscape properties to gain insight into the role of climate-vegetation-soil interactions in long-term hydrologic partitioning. The 12 catchment models (with different paramterizations are subjected to the 12 different climate forcings, resulting in 144 10 yr model simulations. The results are analyzed per catchment (one catchment model subjected to 12 climates and per climate (one climate filtered by 12 different model parameterization, and compared to water balance predictions based on Budyko's hypothesis (E/P = ϕ (Ep/P; E: evaporation, P: precipitation, Ep: potential evaporation. We find significant anti-correlation between average deviations of the evaporation index (E/P computed per catchment vs. per climate, compared to that predicted by Budyko. Catchments that on average produce more E/P have developed in climates that on average produce less E/P, when compared to Budyko's prediction. Water and energy seasonality could not explain these observations, confirming previous results reported by Potter et al. (2005. Next, we analyze which model (i.e., landscape filter characteristics explain the catchment's tendency to produce more or less E/P. We find that the time scale that controls subsurface storage release explains the observed trend. This time scale combines several geomorphologic and hydraulic soil properties. Catchments with relatively longer

  5. Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

  6. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

  7. Interactions between climate change, hydrology and soil erosion in different climatic zones in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, A.; Pavanelli, D.

    2010-03-01

    In Italy, during last century the mean annual temperature (Tym) increased by 0.4°C/100 years in Northern areas (N) (continental zone) and by 0.7°C/100 years in Central (C) and Southern (S) parts (peninsular zones). A negative trend of annual rainfall (Py) was evident in both N and S areas. Extreme events had different tendencies, corresponding to increases in rainfall intensity and in drought conditions in both N and S areas. Climate change affects both vegetation water availability and runoff and erosion. Different results on climatic trends were obtained for smaller sub-regions of Southern Italy. Therefore, climate change studies at a regional level should also account for geographical factors (e.g. distance from the sea, elevation, aspect). In the current study trend in precipitation recorded during last century in three different climatic zones in Italy were investigated and compared. The three zones are: a typical Tuscan-Emilian Apennines watershed (the Reno river) located in the continental area, the Calabria region located in the peninsular zone, and the Sicily region, an island located in the South of Italy. For Reno river mountain watershed (2.597 km2), an attempt was made to gain some knowledge about the changes in the 20th century of the land use and of the climate, connected to the erosion soil risk. The Italian Apennines, from the 16th century, were exploited for farming and for agro forestry and pastoral activities. This human activities encouraged intense erosive processes, but an important factor controlling the intense morphodynamics is the contemporary increase of rainfall in the "Little Ice Age". From the beginning of the 1900, have been led two conflicting and simultaneous phenomena: population moving both to cities and valley bottoms and agricultural mechanization. Their consequences have been evident on land use: abandonment of unproductive fields, of forestry practices and enlargement of the remaining plots. The Calabria region is a long

  8. Soil macropores: Control on infiltration, hillslope and surface hydrology on a reclaimed surface-mined watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The hydrologic response of a surface-mined watershed in central Pennsylvania is controlled by rapid macropore flow within the unsaturated man-made topsoil. Newly reclaimed surface-mined watersheds in central Pennsylvania exhibit low steady-state infiltration rates (1--2 cm/hr) and produce runoff dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow. However, within four years after reclamation, infiltration rates on some mine surfaces approach premined rates (8 cm/hr). As infiltration rate increases, the volume of infiltrated water increases, but the total porosity of minesoil matrix remains constant. There is little change in the surface discharge volume, indicating that infiltrated water continues to contribute to the basin surface discharge by the processes of throughflow and return flow. Throughflow in the topsoil horizon occurs in rapid response to rainfall input, producing large volumes of water with throughflow rates closely related to rainfall rates and with throughflow peaks following rainfall peaks by only minutes. Increased return flow alters the shape of the surface runoff hydrograph by slightly lagging behind infiltration excess overland flow. These changes in the shape of the surface runoff hydrograph reduce the potential for severe gully erosion on the reclaimed site. In addition, throughflow water remains predominantly in the topsoil horizon, and therefore has limited contact with potentially acid-producing backfill. Better understanding of macropore flow processes in reclaimed minesoils will help investigators evaluate past strategies and develop new reclamation techniques that will minimize the short-term surface erosional effects of mining and reclamation, while optimizing the long-term effluent and groundwater quality

  9. Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology and Water Quality of a Small Partially-Irrigated Agricultural Lowland Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visser, A.; Kroes, J.; van Vliet, M. T.; Blenkinsop, S.; Broers, H.

    2010-12-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of the small partially-irrigated agricultural lowland catchment of the Keersop, in south of the Netherlands, as well as the transport of a pre-existing spatially extensive trace metal contamination. The area surrounding the Keersop has been contaminated with heavy metals by the atmospheric emissions of four zinc ore smelters. This heavy metal contamination, with Cd and Zn for example, has accumulated in the topsoil and leaches towards the surface water system, especially during periods with high groundwater levels and high discharge rates. Daily time-series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were derived from the results of eight regional climate model experiments under the SRES A2 emissions scenario. They each span 100 years and are representative for the periods 1961-1990 (“baseline climate”) and 2071-2100 (“future climate”). The time-series of future climate were characterized by lower precipitation (-1% to -12%) and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C), and as a result higher potential evapotranspiration, especially in summer. The time-series were used to drive the quasi-2D unsaturated-saturated zone model (SWAP) of the Keersop catchment (43 km2). The model consisted of an ensemble of 686 1D models, each of which represented a 250x250 m area within the catchment. Simulation results for the future climate scenarios show a shift in the water balance of the catchment. The decrease in annual rainfall is nearly compensated by an increase in irrigation in the catchment, if present day irrigation rules are followed. On the other hand, both evaporation and transpiration fluxes increase. This increase is compensated by a decrease in the drainage flux and groundwater recharge. As a result, groundwater levels decline and the annual discharge of the Keersop stream decreases under all future climate scenarios, by 26% to 46%. Because Cd and Zn

  10. Dominant hydrological processes at three contrasting small permafrost watersheds in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebedeva, Liudmila; Semenova, Olga

    2016-04-01

    The most pronounced climatic changes are observed and projected in the Arctic. Large part of the Arctic is influenced by permanently or seasonally frozen ground that controls river runoff generation. The research aims at assessment of observed and projected changes of hydrological regime and identification of dominant hydrological processes at three small watersheds in different landscape and permafrost conditions of Siberia for the last sixty years by data analysis and process-based modelling. Three studied watersheds are located within the Yenisei, Lena and Kolyma river basins. The Graviyka river basin (323 km2) is situated in discontinuous permafrost in transition zone between tundra and taiga ecotones in the lower Yenisei region. Mean annual precipitation is 510 mm/year and air temperature is -8°C (1936-2014). Both air temperature and precipitation have shown significant increase for the last forty years. The Shestakovka river basin (170 km2), a tributary of the Lena river near Yakutsk, is characterized by extremely dry (240 mm/year) and cold (-9.5°C) climate of Central Yakutiya. Larch and pine forests grow on sandy deposits covered by continuous permafrost. Air temperature and river flow have increased for the last thirty years but precipitation have shown no significant changes. The Kontaktovy creek watershed (22 km2) is located in mountains of upper Kolyma river basin. The permafrost is continuous. Main land cover types are bare rocks, mountain tundra and sparse larch forest. Only insignificant changes of air temperature, precipitation and river flow were detected for the last decades. To assess dominant hydrological processes and to project their future changes in each studied watershed the process-based Hydrograph model was applied to historical and future time periods using temperate and extreme climate scenarios. The Hydrograph model does not rely on calibration and the parameters were estimated using all available a-priori information - thematic maps

  11. Hydrological projections under climate change in the near future by RegCM4 in Southern Africa using a large-scale hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lu; Diallo, Ismaïla; Xu, Chong-Yu; Stordal, Frode

    2015-09-01

    This study aims to provide model estimates of changes in hydrological elements, such as EvapoTranspiration (ET) and runoff, in Southern Africa in the near future until 2029. The climate change scenarios are projected by a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM), RegCM4, which is the latest version of this model developed by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). The hydrological projections are performed by using a large-scale hydrological model (WASMOD-D), which has been tested and customized on this region prior to this study. The results reveal that (1) the projected temperature shows an increasing tendency over Southern Africa in the near future, especially eastward of 25°E, while the precipitation changes are varying between different months and sub-regions; (2) an increase in runoff (and ET) was found in eastern part of Southern Africa, i.e. Southern Mozambique and Malawi, while a decrease was estimated across the driest region in a wide area encompassing Kalahari Desert, Namibia, southwest of South Africa and Angola; (3) the strongest climate change signals are found over humid tropical areas, i.e. north of Angola and Malawi and south of Dem Rep of Congo; and (4) large spatial and temporal variability of climate change signals is found in the near future over Southern Africa. This study presents the main results of work-package 2 (WP2) of the 'Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change in Sub-equatorial Africa (SoCoCA)' project, which is funded by the Research Council of Norway.

  12. Evaluation of high-resolution WRF climate simulations for hydrological variables over Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; De Franciscis, Sebastiano; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Esteban-Parra, María Jesus

    2016-04-01

    Meteorological inputs play an essential role in predicting the potential effects of climate change on water resources. Consequently, this study is focused on evaluating the skill of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate present climate characteristics in term of different variables used for hydrological modeling. For the 35-yr period (1980-2014), high-resolution simulations have been performed with a spatial resolution of 0.088° over a domain encompassing the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the coarser EURO-CORDEX domain (0.44° resolution). WRF model was driven by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1). In addition, other simulation forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) as "perfect boundary conditions" was also run. For validation purposes, WRF outputs were compared for Spain and Portugal independently, using two observational data sources: the Spain02 version 4 daily precipitation and (maximum and minimum) temperature gridded datasets, and the PT02 daily gridded precipitation data. The study was carried out at different time scales in order to evaluate the model ability to capture long-term mean values (from annual to monthly) and high-order statistics (extreme events) by directly comparing grid-points. Furthermore, the observational gridded data were grouped using a multistep regionalization to facilitate the comparison in term of several parameters such as the monthly annual cycle or the percentiles of daily values. The main result is that WRF provides useful information at regional scale, with significant improvement in complex terrain areas such as Iberian Peninsula. Although considerable errors are still observed, the model is able to capture the main precipitation and temperature patterns. The major benefits of using WRF are related to the better representation of extreme events that are an

  13. Analysis of hydrologic variation under climate change environment in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Chau; Chen, Yu-Chin; Chen, Wen-Fu

    2014-05-01

    Impact and adaptation is an important issue in response to climate change. We need to know the affections of climate change on hydrologic characteristics before estimating the impacts and making adaptation strategies of concerned area. The wet and dry seasons of southern Taiwan are significant. In addition, the amount of average annual rainfall is about 2,100mm in southern Taiwan. Most of rainfalls happen in wet season and are caused by cyclones (typhoons) or thunderstorms in wet season. It implies that both quantity and intensity of rainfall are large in wet season, while they are small in dry season. Corresponding to the phenomena, the possibility of flood in wet season and draught in dry season is high. This means significant hydrologic variations may cause disasters. The purpose of this study is to analyze hydrologic variation due to recent climate changes in southern Taiwan, and provide decision makers some information to understand possible impacts and make adaptation strategies. Before typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan, southern Taiwan was suffering from aridity. As usual, people were expecting the rainfall accompanied with typhoons will resolve the drought in this area. However, it fell down huge amount of water within a short period of time and the rain became a big disaster in this area. The rainfall is an over 200-year event, a record breaker. The data used in this research is based on the records of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun station, respectively. The trends of temperature, amount of rainfall, and number of rainy days are examined. Both Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method are chosen as the means to do trend examination.The results show that annual mean temperatures at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun have raised 0.5~0.9°C during past decades under the impact of global warming. The amount of annual rainfall does not appear statistically significant trend. However, the number of annual rainy

  14. Critical Ecosystems and Disturbance Science: Capturing the Feedbacks between Climate, Drought Mortality, Wildfire, and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, R. S.; Atchley, A. L.; Coon, E.; Honig, K.; Kikinzon, E.; Koo, E.; Linn, R.; McDowell, N. G.; Winterkamp, J.; Xu, C.

    2015-12-01

    West watersheds in the United States are increasingly affected by a combination of novel climate conditions (such as snow-to-rain regime shifts), extreme events (droughts and floods), wildfire behavior, and forest mortality. We term the interaction and feedback between these processes "disturbance science." Existing ecohydrologic models are often ill-suited for understanding the independencies and feedbacks within disturbance science, particularly coupled process-level interactions between multiple climate, ecosystem, and hydrologic drivers. We have developed a unique multi-physics ecohydrologic framework—the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS)—to better understand basin-scale disturbance science. We demonstrate the framework using a well-instrumented small watershed in northern New Mexico, a watershed that has been exposed to moderate wildfire, drought-induced forest mortality, and frequent flooding events in the last 5-10 years. We modeled wildfire behavior is modeled using the FIRETEC platform as well as direct observations from the 2013 fire season, including litter bulk load and canopy destruction. Ecologic changes were simulated using a novel 2D spatial dynamic vegetation model that captures spatiotemporal vegetation response to climate change. We examined three representative disturbance-driven scenarios: (1) pristine pre-fire vegetation, (2) observed moderate fire behavior, and (3) modeled intense fire conditions, focusing on short- and long-term hydrology to illustrate impacts over a range of temporal scales. Results show dramatic post-disturbance impacts on hydrologic regimes with significant changes to baseflow (in response to reduced basin-wide transpiration) and streamflow in response to convective precipitation events (linked to removal of groundcover). These flashy, or rapid, runoff events are a key driver of catastrophic erosion, with deleterious impacts to the catchments and downstream channel morphology often exhibited in Mountain West

  15. Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Silva, C. G.; Rigsby, C. A.; Absy, M. L.; Almeida, R. P.; Caputo, M.; Chiessi, C. M.; Cruz, F. W.; Dick, C. W.; Feakins, S. J.; Figueiredo, J.; Freeman, K. H.; Hoorn, C.; Jaramillo, C.; Kern, A. K.; Latrubesse, E. M.; Ledru, M. P.; Marzoli, A.; Myrbo, A.; Noren, A.; Piller, W. E.; Ramos, M. I. F.; Ribas, C. C.; Trnadade, R.; West, A. J.; Wahnfried, I.; Willard, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

  16. Uncertainty of tipping elements on risk analysis in hydrology under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Tawatari, R.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    Risk analysis in this study characterizes the events that could be caused by climate change and estimates their effects on society. In order to characterize climate change risks, events that might be caused by climate change will be investigated focusing on critical geophysical phenomena such as changes in thermohaline circulation (THC) in oceans and the large-scale melting of the Greenland and other ice sheets. The results of numerical experiments with climate models and paleoclimate studies will be referenced in listing up these phenomena. The trigger mechanisms, tendency to occur and relationship of these phenomena to global climate will be clarified. To clarify that relationship between the RCP scenarios and tipping elements, we identified which year tipping elements in case of "Arctic summer sea ice" and "Greenland ice sheet" are appeared using the increase of global average temperature in 5 GCMs under RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from Zickfeld et al. (2013) and IPCC (2013), and tipping point of each tipping elements from IPCC (2013). In case of "Greenland ice sheet" (Tipping point takes a value within the range of 1.0oC and 4.0oC), we found that "Greenland ice sheet" may melt down when the tipping point is 1.0oC as lowest value. On the other hand, when tipping point sets as 4.0oC, it may not melt down except for RCP 8.5. As above, we show the uncertainty of tipping point itself. In future, it is necessary how to reflect such uncertainty in risk analysis in hydrology.

  17. Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

    OpenAIRE

    Qian, Y.; M. G. Flanner; L. R. Leung; Wang, W

    2010-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau in the world, has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. The snowpack and glaciers over the TP provide fresh water to billions of people in Asian countries, but the TP glaciers have been retreating faster than those anywhere else in the world. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative forcin...

  18. Evaluating the influence of long term historical climate change on catchment hydrology – using drought and flood indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Refsgaard

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study uses a 133 yr data set from the 1055 km2 Skjern River catchment in a western Danish catchment to evaluate: long-term past climate changes in the area; the capability of a conceptual hydrological model NAM to simulate climate change impacts on river discharge; and the occurrences of droughts and floods in a changing climate. The degree of change in the climatic variables is examined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. During the last 133 yr the area has experienced a significant change in precipitation of 46% and a temperature change of 1.3 °C leading to (simulated increases in discharge of 103% and groundwater recharge of 172%. Only a small part of the past climatic changes was found to be correlated to the climatic drivers: NAO, SCA and AMO. The NAM model was calibrated on the period 1961–1970 and showed generally an excellent match between simulated and observed discharge. The capability of the hydrological model to predict climate change impact was investigated by looking at performances outside the calibration period. The results showed a reduced model fit, especially for the modern time periods (after the 1970s, and not all hydrological changes could be explained. This might indicate that hydrological models cannot be expected to predict climate change impacts on discharge as accurately in the future, as they perform under present conditions, where they can be calibrated. The (simulated stream discharge was subsequently analyzed using flood and drought indices based on the threshold method. The extreme signal was found to depend highly on the period chosen as reference to normal. The analysis, however, indicated enhanced amplitude of the hydrograph towards the drier extremes superimposed on the overall discharge increase leading to more relative drought periods.

  19. A land surface scheme for atmospheric and hydrologic models: SEWAB (Surface Energy and Water Balance)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mengelkamp, H.T.; Warrach, K.; Raschke, E. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    A soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme is presented here which solves the coupled system of the Surface Energy and Water Balance (SEWAB) equations considering partly vegetated surfaces. It is based on the one-layer concept for vegetation. In the soil the diffusion equations for heat and moisture are solved on a multi-layer grid. SEWAB has been developed to serve as a land-surface scheme for atmospheric circulation models. Being forced with atmospheric data from either simulations or measurements it calculates surface and subsurface runoff that can serve as input to hydrologic models. The model has been validated with field data from the FIFE experiment and has participated in the PILPS project for intercomparison of land-surface parameterization schemes. From these experiments we feel that SEWAB reasonably well partitions the radiation and precipitation into sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as into runoff and soil moisture Storage. (orig.) [Deutsch] Ein Landoberflaechenschema wird vorgestellt, das den Transport von Waerme und Wasser zwischen dem Erdboden, der Vegetation und der Atmosphaere unter Beruecksichtigung von teilweise bewachsenem Boden beschreibt. Im Erdboden werden die Diffusionsgleichungen fuer Waerme und Feuchte auf einem Gitter mit mehreren Schichten geloest. Das Schema SEWAB (Surface Energy and Water Balance) beschreibt die Landoberflaechenprozesse in atmosphaerischen Modellen und berechnet den Oberflaechenabfluss und den Basisabfluss, die als Eingabedaten fuer hydrologische Modelle genutzt werden koennen. Das Modell wurde mit Daten des FIFE-Experiments kalibriert und hat an Vergleichsexperimenten fuer Landoberflaechen-Schemata im Rahmen des PILPS-Projektes teilgenommen. Dabei hat sich gezeigt, dass die Aufteilung der einfallenden Strahlung und des Niederschlages in den sensiblen und latenten Waermefluss und auch in Abfluss und Speicherung der Bodenfeuchte in SEWAB den beobachteten Daten recht gut entspricht. (orig.)

  20. Holocene Decadal to Multidecadal Hydrologic Variability in the Everglades: Climate and Implications for Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, C. S.; Anderson, W. T.; Saunders, C.; Rebenack, C.

    2009-12-01

    The Florida Everglades are a complex, unique ecosystem. Adding to the complexity, a system of canals and gates control the flow of waters from central Florida southward into the Everglades, and ultimately Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. With south Florida’s distinct wet and dry seasons, the hydrology has driven ecosystem evolution over the last 4-5 kya. However, since the 1920s the water content of the Everglades has largely been anthropogenically modulated, with the exception of the natural variability of evaporation and precipitation over the large area south of the Tamiami Trail. Because of the incredibly flat nature of the Everglades, small changes in the freshwater balance have substantial impacts on the diversity and distribution of organisms. Decadal and multidecadal variability in precipitation, hurricane incidence, and sea level rise all have important effects on the ecosystem. During the instrumental record, the natural precipitation across south Florida has been strongly influenced by combinations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and ENSO. Here we discuss evidence of natural climate variability impacts on the ecosystem beyond the anthropogenic hydrological controls. Proxy environmental data from seeds, charcoal, and trees, plus the sparse, but available, instrumental records provide evidence of changes in the ecosystem over the Holocene, and suggest considerations for future management.

  1. Hydrological processes at the Suntar-Hayata ridge (Eastern Siberia) in past, current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesterova, Nataliia; Semenova, Olga; Lebedeva, Liudmila

    2016-04-01

    The detailed studies of permafrost, hydrological and glaciological processes at the Suntar-Hayata Ridge started within the Program of International Geophysical Year (1957-1958). The Suntar-Hayta Ridge (with highest mountain reaching 2959 m) is situated in Eastern Siberia and divides the Lena, Indigirka and the Okhotsk sea rivers basins. It is characterized by original combination of climate, geological and glaciological conditions. In 2015 our research group got the access to the reports of High-Mountain Glaciological and Geocriological Suntar-Hayata station which were stored in the archives of Melnikov Permafrost Institute in Yakutsk (Russia). We used revealed data for assessment of runoff formation processes and the factors affecting them in remote high-elevation permafrost area, and estimated the parameters of hydrological model based on those findings. Two watersheds of different scale were selected as the objects of our studies - the Suntar river (7680 km2) and the Sakharyniya River (84.4 km2). The Hydrograph model (Vinogradov et al., 2011; Semenova et al., 2013) was used in the study as it explicitly describes hydrological processes in different permafrost environments including the dynamics of ground thaw/freeze (ex., Lebedeva et al., 2014). In the Hydrograph model the processes have a physical basis and certain strategic conceptual simplifications. The level of model complexity is suitable for a remote, sparsely gauged region such as Eastern Siberia as it allows for a priori assessment of the model parameters. Based on the observations (meteorological data, ground temperature at different depth, soil profile physical properties, characteristics of vegetation, snow measurements, etc.) the model parameters were estimated for four main landscapes of the studied watersheds (bare ground, mountain tundra, sparse larch forest and riparian forest at swamped soils). At the first stage we conducted the simulation of individual processes and compared the results with

  2. Biological Soil Crusts Influence Hydrologic Function Differently in Various Deserts And Future Climate and Land Use will Affect These Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belnap, J.; Wilcox, B.; Barger, N.; Herrick, J.; van Soyoc, M.

    2012-04-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) can completely cover plant interspaces in dryland regions, and can constitute 70% or more of the living ground cover. In these areas, where precipitation is low and soils have low fertility, native plants often rely on intact biological soil crusts to provide water and nutrient flow to the broadly scattered vegetation. In cool desert systems, well-developed biocrusts (dominated by lichens and mosses) roughen the soil surface, increasing residence time of surface water flow. This results in increased and relatively homogenous infiltration of water into the soils. Filaments associated with cyanobacteria, fungi, mosses and lichens increase aggregate formation and stabilize soils, thus reducing sediment production, with well-developed biocrusts conferring much more stability on soils than less developed cyanobacterial dominated biocrusts. In hot and hyper-arid desert systems, biocrusts are generally less developed and dominated by cyanobacteria. These biocrusts generally increase runoff from plant interspaces to downslope vegetation. While reduced infiltration may seem to be negative, it can actually be advantageous to the downslope plants, as they may require small watersheds above them to provide the needed amount of water and nutrients required for their growth. Thus, infiltration and nutrient additions are more heterogenous than in cool desert systems. Soil surface disturbance and climate change have the potential to dramatically alter the species composition and thereby function of biological soil crusts in different deserts. Compressional disturbances results in reduced cover and a loss of lichen and moss species. Changes in climate regimes, such as an increase in temperature or a shift in the amount, timing, or intensity of rainfall, will influence the composition and physiological functioning of biological soil crusts, as various crust components have different photosynthetic and respiration responses to temperature and

  3. HESS Opinions: "Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Karavokiros

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 1990 extensive funds have been spent on research in climate change. Although Earth Sciences, including climatology and hydrology, have benefited significantly, progress has proved incommensurate with the effort and funds, perhaps because these disciplines were perceived as "tools" subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. At the same time, research was misleadingly focused more on the "symptom", i.e. the emission of greenhouse gases, than on the "illness", i.e. the unsustainability of fossil fuel-based energy production. Unless energy saving and use of renewable resources become the norm, there is a real risk of severe socioeconomic crisis in the not-too-distant future. A framework for drastic paradigm change is needed, in which water plays a central role, due to its unique link to all forms of renewable energy, from production (hydro and wave power to storage (for time-varying wind and solar sources, to biofuel production (irrigation. The extended role of water should be considered in parallel to its other uses, domestic, agricultural and industrial. Hydrology, the science of water on Earth, must move towards this new paradigm by radically rethinking its fundamentals, which are unjustifiably trapped in the 19th-century myths of deterministic theories and the zeal to eliminate uncertainty. Guidance is offered by modern statistical and quantum physics, which reveal the intrinsic character of uncertainty/entropy in nature, thus advancing towards a new understanding and modelling of physical processes, which is central to the effective use of renewable energy and water resources.

  4. HESS Opinions "Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Karavokiros

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Since 1990 extensive funds have been spent on research in climate change. Although Earth Sciences, including climatology and hydrology, have benefited significantly, progress has proved incommensurate with the effort and funds, perhaps because these disciplines were perceived as "tools" subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. At the same time, research was misleadingly focused more on the "symptom", i.e. the emission of greenhouse gases, than on the "illness", i.e. the unsustainability of fossil fuel-based energy production. There is a real risk of severe socioeconomic crisis in the not-too-distant future, unless energy saving and use of renewables become the norm. A framework for drastic change is needed, in which water plays a central role, due to its unique link to all forms of renewable energy, from production (hydro, wave to storage (for time-varying wind and solar sources, to biofuel production (irrigation. The expanded role of water should be considered in parallel to usual roles in domestic, agricultural and industrial use. Hydrology, the science of water on Earth, must reinvent itself within this new paradigm and radically rethink its fundaments, which are unjustifiably trapped in the 19th-century myths of deterministic theories and the zeal to eliminate uncertainty. Guidance is offered by modern statistical and quantum physics, revealing the intrinsic character of uncertainty/entropy in nature, thus advancing towards a new understanding and modelling of physical processes, which is fundamental for the effective use of renewable energy and water resources.

  5. Development of hydrological models and surface process modelization Study case in High Mountain slopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hydrological models are useful because allow to predict fluxes into the hydrological systems, which is useful to predict foods and violent phenomenon associated to water fluxes, especially in materials under a high meteorization level. The combination of these models with meteorological predictions, especially with rainfall models, allow to model water behavior into the soil. On most of cases, this type of models is really sensible to evapotranspiration. On climatic studies, the superficial processes have to be represented adequately. Calibration and validation of these models is necessary to obtain reliable results. This paper is a practical exercise of application of complete hydrological information at detailed scale in a high mountain catchment, considering the soil use and types more representatives. The information of soil moisture, infiltration, runoff and rainfall is used to calibrate and validate TOPLATS hydrological model to simulate the behavior of soil moisture. The finds show that is possible to implement an hydrological model by means of soil moisture information use and an equation of calibration by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).

  6. Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-02-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important

  7. Assessment of Regional Climatic and Hydrological Changes in the Eastern Himalayan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, A.; Tayal, S.

    2014-12-01

    tools for factors affecting glacier melt rates are urgently needed for planning for climate change adaptation. The presentation will link the changing regional climate of Sikkim to the changing area and volume of the glaciers and the hydrology of the region. The results of our work can be used by hydrological modelers to predict the future water availability of the region.

  8. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  9. Using continuous surface water level and temperature data to characterize hydrological connectivity in riparian wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabezas, Alvaro; Gonzalez-Sanchís, Maria; Gallardo, Belinda; Comín, Francisco A

    2011-12-01

    Methods to characterize hydrological connectivity at riparian wetlands are necessary for ecosystem management given its importance over ecosystem structure and functioning. In this paper, we aimed to describe hydrological connectivity at one Ebro River reach (NE Spain) and test a method to perform such characterization. Continuous surface water level and temperature data were recorded at five riparian wetlands during the period October 2006-June 2007. Combining water level and temperature, we classified the examined wetlands in three groups, which mainly differed in the dominant water source during different flood stages. Firstly, a comparison of water level fluctuations in riparian wetlands with those in the river channel during events with different characteristics was used to describe hydrological connectivity. Such comparison was also used to extract quantitative hydrological connectivity descriptors as the wetland response initiation time. Secondly, water temperature series were divided in phases with different average, range and daily oscillation, and these parameters were interpreted for each phase to identify dominant flowpaths. By doing so, a more complete description of hydrological connectivity was achieved. Our method provided useful insights to describe hydrological connectivity using a qualitative approach that can be expanded if required to include quantitative parameters for studies of biotic assemblages or ecosystem processes. PMID:21400244

  10. Hydrological model for the transport of radioisotope in surface water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The use of radioisotopes has gained grounds in Ghana as a result of the numerous benefits that could be derived from it. In Ghana, radioisotope materials are used for various purposes in a number of institutions. However, improper disposal of the waste poses threat to the environment. To evaluate the environmental impact of radioisotope pollution, mathematical models play a major role in predicting the pollution level in any medium. This study is concerned with the hydrological model for the transport of radioactive material in the river. The model was composed by employing partial differential equations, describing relevant physical processes evolution (water level, velocities and dissolved substances concentrations) that occurs in water bodies. The mass conservation and momentum laws, state equation and state transport equations are equation system basis. The explicit central difference scheme in space and a forward difference method in time were used for the evaluation of the generalized transport equation, the Advection-Dispersion Equation. A Matlab code was developed to predict the concentration of the radioactive contaminant at any particular time along the river and in a reservoir. The model was able to simulate accurately the various levels of radionuclide concentration changes in the flowing rivers as the flows are augmented by tributary inflows. (au)

  11. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology : Development of a Methodology through a Case Study in the Andes of Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Vergara, Walter; Deeb, Alejandro; Leino, Irene; Kitoh, Akio; Escobar, Marisa

    2011-01-01

    The objective of study of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology is to develop a methodology to assess the net impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in mountainous regions. This is done through a case study in the Peruvian Andes. There are few examples of predictions of the impact of climate change on resource availability and even fewer examples of the applic...

  12. Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Changchun; CHEN Yaning; LI Weihong; CHEN Yapeng

    2006-01-01

    Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50years are the focus of more and more researchers'attention. In this paper, both temperature and precipitation time series were found to present a monotonic increasing trend using nonparametric tests.Noticeably, a significant step change in both temperature and precipitation time series occurred in 1986. By contrasting the trends of natural water process in headstream and mainstream, we found that it was anthropogenic activities not climate change that caused the river dried up and vegetation degenerated in the lower reaches of Tarim River. The results of gray correlation analysis show that the runoff of higher latitude distributing river is more closely associated with winter snow stocking, while that of lower latitude is more closely related to summer temperature. Runoff in the headstream is more sensitive to precipitation, while that in the mainstream is more sensitive to evaporation. The strong evaporation caused by increasing temperature weakened runoff to some extent in spite of the fact that precipitation increased over the past 50 years.

  13. Cloud microphysics and surface properties in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamnes, K. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Cloud optical thickness is determined from ground-based measurements of broadband incoming solar irradiance using a radiation model in which the cloud optical depth is adjusted until computed irradiance agrees with the measured value. From spectral measurements it would be feasible to determine both optical thickness and mean drop size, which apart from cloud structure and morphology, are the most important climatic parameters of clouds. A radiative convective model is used to study the sensitivity of climate to cloud liquid water amount and cloud drop size. This is illustrated in Figure 21.1 which shows that for medium thick clouds a 10 % increase in drop size yields a surface warming of 1.5{degrees}C, which is the same as that due to a doubling of carbon dioxide. For thick clouds, a 5% decrease in drop size is sufficient to offset the warming due to doubling of carbon dioxide. A radiative transfer model for the coupled atmosphere/sea ice/ocean system is used to study the partitioning of radiative energy between the three strata, and the potential for testing such a model in terms of planned experiments in the Arctic is discussed.

  14. Hydrological modelling of a closed lake (Laguna Mar Chiquita, Argentina) in the context of 20th century climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troin, Magali; Vallet-Coulomb, Christine; Sylvestre, Florence; Piovano, Eduardo

    2010-11-01

    SummaryA major hydroclimatic change occured in southeastern South America at the beginning of the 1970s. This change was recorded in Laguna Mar Chiquita (central Argentina), the terminal saline lake of a 127,000 km 2 catchment as a dramatic rise in lake level larger than any observed over the past 230 years. Based on available continuous lake level monitoring since 1967, our study aimed to develop a lake water balance model for investigating the link between climate and lake level variations. Since un-gauged downstream surfaces represented approximately 80% of the catchment, the main challenge of the model development and implementation came from estimating the magnitude of catchment inputs from sparsely available gauge data. We determined a strongly negative water balance in the un-gauged part of the catchment that can be attributed to evapotranspiration in two large surface water hydrosystems. The chloride balance indicated that the lake is hydrologically closed, without significant groundwater outflows. Using contrasted hydroclimatic conditions, the robustness of the model calibration was evaluated with the model residual, and a short validation proposed for the 1998-2006 time period. Sensitivity analyses were performed in order to identify the main forcing factors of lake variations. We determined that the abrupt lake level rise in the early 1970s could be attributed to increased runoff in the upper northern sub-basin, suggesting a tropical climatic influence. Based on available hydroclimatic data, we propose a continuous lake level simulation for the 1926-2006 time period which could be used as a reference curve for better constraining paleohydrological reconstructions from sedimentary proxies.

  15. Estimating future ecoregion distributions within the Okavango Delta Wetlands based on hydrological simulations and future climate and development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, C.; Burg, V.; Kinzelbach, W.

    2010-02-01

    SummaryThe terminal wetlands of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana are driven by the balance between inflows and evapotranspiration. The present situation is threatened by climate change and possible agricultural and industrial development in Botswana and the upstream countries Angola and Namibia. A new balance will affect the spatial extent and character of the Okavango Delta Wetlands. We apply a distributed hydrological model to study the impact of those threats on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The relation between the present distribution of hydrological conditions and the occurrence of vegetation classes is investigated and a good correlation is found between depth to groundwater and vegetation class. By assuming that the distribution of vegetation will in the long term adapt to hydrological conditions, the simulated hydrological conditions under climate change and water management scenarios are translated into vegetation maps for these scenarios. Drier conditions are expected for the future and aquatic vegetation zones will be reduced in size. This change will however occur non-homogeneously over the Delta.

  16. Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study is based on both the recent and the predicted twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over the mountainous Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which are influenced by snow and glacier melting. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) data for the periods 1976–2005, 2006–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) data for the periods of 2041–2050 and 2071–2080 with RCP8.5 are used for climatic projection and, after bias correction, the same data are used as an input to the University of British Columbia (UBC) hydrological model for river flow projections. The projections of all of the future periods were compared with the results of 1976–2005 and with each other. Projections of future changes show a consistent increase in air temperature and precipitation. However, temperature and precipitation increase is relatively slow during 2071–2100 in contrast with 2041–2070. Northern parts are more likely to experience an increase in precipitation and temperature in comparison to the southern parts. A higher increase in temperature is projected during spring and winter over southern parts and during summer over northern parts. Moreover, the increase in minimum temperature is larger in both scenarios for all future periods. Future river flow is projected by both models to increase in the twenty first century (CCAM and RegCM) in both scenarios. However, the rate of increase is larger during the first half while it is relatively small in the second half of the twenty first century in RCP4.5. The possible reason for high river flow during the first half of the twenty first century is the large increase in temperature, which may cause faster melting of snow, while in the last half of the century there is a decreasing trend in river flow, precipitation, and temperature (2071–2100) in comparison to 2041–2070 for RCP4.5. Generally, for all future periods, the percentage of increased river flow is

  17. Investigatigating inter-/intra-annual variability of surface hydrology at northern high latitude from spaceborne measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, K.; Duguay, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    Lakes encompass a large part of the surface cover in the northern boreal and tundra areas of northern Canada and are therefore a significant component of the terrestrial hydrological system. To understand the hydrologic cycle over subarctic and arctic landscapes, estimating surface parameters such as surface net radiation, soil moisture, and surface albedo is important. Although ground-based field measurements provide a good temporal resolution, these data provide a limited spatial representation and are often restricted to the summer period (from June to August), and few surface-based stations are located in high-latitude regions. In this respect, spaceborne remote sensing provides the means to monitor surface hydrology and to estimate components of the surface energy balance with reasonable spatial and temporal resolutions required for hydrological investigations, as well as for providing more spatially representative lake-relevant information than available from in situ measurements. The primary objective of this study is to quantify the sources of temporal and spatial variability in surface albedo over subarctic wetland from satellite derived albedo measurements in the Hudson Bay Lowlands near Churchill, Manitoba. The spatial variability in albedo within each land-cover type is investigated through optical satellite imagery from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager obtained in different seasons from spring into fall (April and October) over a 30-year period (1984-2013). These data allowed for an examination of the spatial variability of surface albedo under relatively dry and wet summer conditions (i.e. 1984, 1998 versus 1991, 2005). A detailed analysis of Landsat-derived surface albedo (ranging from 0.09 to 0.15) conducted in the Churchill region for August is inversely related to surface water fraction calculated from Landsat images. Preliminary analysis of surface albedo observed between

  18. Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; Bowling, Laura C.

    2016-08-01

    Despite the fact that Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs have been used to project hydrologic impacts of climate change using off-line hydrologic models for two decades, many of these efforts have been disjointed - applications or at least calibrations have been focused on individual river basins and using a few of the available GCMs. This study improves upon earlier attempts by systematically projecting hydrologic impacts for the entire conterminous United States (US), using outputs from ten GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, with seamless hydrologic model calibration and validation techniques to produce a spatially and temporally consistent set of current hydrologic projections. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was forced with ten-member ensemble projections of precipitation and air temperature that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° (~ 4 km) grid resolution for the baseline (1966-2005) and future (2011-2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Based on regional analysis, the VIC model projections indicate an increase in winter and spring total runoff due to increases in winter precipitation of up to 20% in most regions of the US. However, decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days will lead to significant decreases in summer runoff with more pronounced shifts in the time of occurrence of annual peak runoff projected over the eastern and western US. In contrast, the central US will experience year-round increases in total runoff, mostly associated with increases in both extreme high and low runoff. The projected hydrological changes described in this study have implications for various aspects of future water resource management, including water supply, flood and drought preparation, and reservoir operation.

  19. An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

    2009-12-01

    A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions

  20. A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.-L. Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the Western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada using CCSM4 (CAM4/CLM4 global model with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation [3-D − PP (plane-parallel] adjustment to ensure that energy balance at the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization. We show that deviations of the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains, but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while decreases for higher elevations with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases in higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.

  1. Comparing and Combining Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature Products for Improved Hydrological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert M. Parinussa

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Land surface temperature (LST is an important variable that provides a valuable connection between the energy and water budget and is strongly linked to land surface hydrology. Space-borne remote sensing provides a consistent means for regularly observing LST using thermal infrared (TIR and passive microwave observations each with unique strengths and weaknesses. The spatial resolution of TIR based LST observations is around 1 km, a major advantage when compared to passive microwave observations (around 10 km. However, a major advantage of passive microwaves is their cloud penetrating capability making them all-weather sensors whereas TIR observations are routinely masked under the presence of clouds and aerosols. In this study, a relatively simple combination approach that benefits from the cloud penetrating capacity of passive microwave sensors was proposed. In the first step, TIR and passive microwave LST products were compared over Australia for both anomalies and raw timeseries. A very high agreement was shown over the vast majority of the country with R2 typically ranging from 0.50 to 0.75 for the anomalies and from 0.80 to 1.00 for the raw timeseries. Then, the scalability of the passive microwave based LST product was examined and a pixel based merging approach through linear scaling was proposed. The individual and merged LST products were further compared against independent LST from the re-analysis model outputs. This comparison revealed that the TIR based LST product agrees best with the re-analysis data (R2 0.26 for anomalies and R2 0.76 for raw data, followed by the passive microwave LST product (R2 0.16 for anomalies and R2 0.66 for raw data and the combined LST product (R2 0.18 for anomalies and R2 0.62 for raw data. It should be noted that the drop in performance comes with an increased revisit frequency of approximately 20% compared to the revised frequency of the TIR alone. Additionally, this comparison against re

  2. Climate and Hydrological Data Analysis for hydrological and solute transport modelling purposes in the Muriaé River basin, Atlantic Forest Biome, SE Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Juliana; Künne, Annika; Kralisch, Sven; Fink, Manfred; Brenning, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The Muriaé River basin in SE Brazil has been experiencing an increasing pressure on water resources, due to the population growth of the Rio de Janeiro urban area connected with the growth of the industrial and agricultural sector. This leads to water scarcity, riverine forest degradation, soil erosion and water quality problems among other impacts. Additionally the region has been suffering with seasonal precipitation variations leading to extreme events such as droughts, floods and landslides. Climate projections for the near future indicate a high inter-annual variability of rainfall with an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events combined with a statistically significant increase in the duration of dry periods and a reduced duration of wet periods. This may lead to increased soil erosion during the wet season, while the longer dry periods may reduce the vegetation cover, leaving the soil even more exposed and vulnerable to soil erosion. In consequence, it is crucial to understand how climate affects the interaction between the timing of extreme rainfall events, hydrological processes, vegetation growth, soil cover and soil erosion. In this context, physically-based hydrological modelling can contribute to a better understanding of spatial-temporal process dynamics in the Earth's system and support Integrated Water Resourses Management (IWRM) and adaptation strategies. The study area is the Muriaé river basin which has an area of approx. 8000 km² in Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro States. The basin is representative of a region of domain of hillslopes areas with the predominancy of pasture for livestock production. This study will present some of the relevant analyses which have been carried out on data (climate and streamflow) prior to using them for hydrological modelling, including consistency checks, homogeneity, pattern and statistical analyses, or annual and seasonal trends detection. Several inconsistencies on the raw data were

  3. Quantification of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean basin in Sardinia, Italy, through high-resolution simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Piras

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Future climate projections robustly indicate that the Mediterranean region will experience a significant decrease of mean annual precipitation and an increase in temperature. These changes are expected to seriously affect the hydrologic regime, with a limitation of water availability and an intensification of hydrologic extremes, and to negatively impact local economies. In this study, we quantify the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB, an agricultural watershed of 472.5 km2 in Sardinia, Italy. To simulate the wide range of runoff generation mechanisms typical of Mediterranean basins, we adopted a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model. The high-resolution forcings in reference and future conditions (30-year records for each period were provided by four combinations of global and regional climate models, bias-corrected and downscaled in space and time (from ~25 km, 24 h to 5 km, 1 h through statistical tools. The analysis of the hydrologic model outputs indicates that the RMB is expected to be severely impacted by future climate change. The range of simulations consistently predict: (i a significant diminution of mean annual runoff at the basin outlet, mainly due to a decreasing contribution of the runoff generation mechanisms depending on water available in the soil; (ii modest variations in mean annual runoff and intensification of mean annual discharge maxima in flatter sub-basins with clay and loamy soils, likely due to a higher occurrence of infiltration excess runoff; (iii reduction of soil water content and real evapotranspiration in most areas of the basin; and (iv a drop in the groundwater table. Results of this study are useful to support the adoption of adaptive strategies for management and planning of agricultural activities and water resources in the region.

  4. Should anticipated impacts of climate change on hydrology modify water management practices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    , governments, and investors want reliable projections to meet future load and energy demand and to properly plan for upgrades of existing assets; they therefore are starting to require hydrological and energy capability assessments to consider potential climate change impacts. To date, however, while climate models have provided indications of global and continental-scale changes in precipitation patterns, they have supplied very little quantitative, probabilistic, or seasonal information at the regional or watershed scales. The presentation will conclude by asking the following question for open discussion: is there sufficient information available to allow hydrologists to add a climate change factor to their assessments, on top of annual variability and cyclical meteorological events implicitly included in historical series? (author)

  5. Contrasting responses of terrestrial eco-hydrologic quantities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheff, Jacob; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan; Liu, Haibo

    2016-04-01

    Much recent literature on terrestrial hydroclimate under planetary warming has concluded that continents will become "drier" in some important sense. However, paleoclimatologists have usually interpreted cold, low-greenhouse periods to be "dry" on land and warmer epochs to be "wet," and other modern-climate studies have come to similar conclusions. Here, we show that both of these ideas are fundamentally misleading: under CO2-driven warming, climate models strongly decrease surface soil moisture and near-surface relative humidity, yet strongly increase photosynthesis and vegetation cover (a main objective of hydroclimatology), moderately increase runoff production, and barely change deep-layer soil moisture. This holds both for future anthropogenic warming and for glacial-interglacial warming: the models project wet surfaces with decreased photosynthesis at the last glacial maximum. Thus, the paucity of forest cover and expanse of open habitat in the LGM record is actually consistent with the models, and does not imply that the glacial environment was "dry", but merely that CO2 was low. In contrast, in order to explain the paleo-record without invoking a CO2 effect on vegetation, one would likely have to conclude that the LGM (and future) surface moisture projections are grossly incorrect. In short, the words "drier" and "wetter" are not sufficient to describe greenhouse terrestrial climate change past, present or future, and their use in isolation is discouraged.

  6. Understanding wetland sub-surface hydrology using geologic and isotopic signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sahu

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to utilize hydrogeology and isotope composition of groundwater to understand the present hydrological processes prevalent in a freshwater wetland, source of wetland groundwater, surface water/groundwater interaction and mixing of groundwater of various depth zones in the aquifer. This study considers East Calcutta Wetlands (ECW – a freshwater peri-urban inland wetland ecosystem located at the lower part of the deltaic alluvial plain of South Bengal Basin and east of Kolkata city. This wetland is well known over the world for its resource recovery systems, developed by local people through ages, using wastewater of the city. Geological investigations reveal that the sub-surface geology is completely blanketed by the Quaternary sediments comprising a succession of silty clay, sand of various grades and sand mixed with occasional gravels and thin intercalations of silty clay. At few places the top silty clay layer is absent due to scouring action of past channels. In these areas sand is present throughout the geological column and the areas are vulnerable to groundwater pollution. Groundwater mainly flows from east to west and is being over-extracted to the tune of 65×103 m3/day. δ18O and δD values of shallow and deep groundwater are similar indicating resemblance in hydrostratigraphy and climate of the recharge areas. Groundwater originates mainly from monsoonal rain with some evaporation prior to or during infiltration and partly from bottom of ponds, canals and infiltration of groundwater withdrawn for irrigation. Relatively high tritium content of the shallow groundwater indicates local recharge, while the deep groundwater with very low tritium is recharged mainly from distant areas. At places the deep aquifer has relatively high tritium, indicating mixing of groundwater of shallow and deep aquifers. Metals such as copper, lead, arsenic, cadmium, aluminium, nickel and chromium are also

  7. Understanding wetland sub-surface hydrology using geologic and isotopic signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Sikdar

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to utilize hydrogeoloy and isotope composition of groundwater to understand the present hydrological processes prevalent in a freshwater wetland, source of wetland groundwater, surface water/groundwater interaction and mixing of groundwater of various depth zones in the aquifer. This study considers East Calcutta Wetlands (ECW – a freshwater peri-urban inland wetland ecosystem located at the lower part of the deltaic alluvial plain of South Bengal Basin and east of Kolkata city. This wetland is well known over the world for its resource recovery systems, developed by local people through ages, using wastewater from the city. Geological investigations reveal that the sub-surface geology is completely blanketed by the Quaternary sediments comprising a succession of silty clay, sand of various grades and sand mixed with occasional gravels and thin intercalations of silty clay. Aquifer within the depths of 80 m to 120 m has the maximum potential to supply water. Groundwater mainly flows from east to west and is being over-extracted to the tune of 65×103 m3/day. δ18O and δD values of shallow and deep groundwater are similar indicating resemblance in hydrostratigraphy and climate of the recharge areas. Groundwater originates mainly from monsoonal rain with some evaporation prior to or during infiltration and partly from bottom of ponds, canals and infiltration of groundwater withdrawn for irrigation. Relatively high tritium content of the shallow groundwater indicates local recharge, while the deeper groundwater with very low tritium is recharged mainly from distant areas. At places the deeper aquifer has relatively high tritium, indicating mixing of groundwater of shallow and deep aquifers. Metals such as copper, lead, arsenic, cadmium, aluminum, nickel and chromium are also present in groundwater of various depths. Therefore, aquifers of wetland and surrounding urban areas which are heavily

  8. Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Flanner, M. G.; Leung, L. R.; Wang, W.

    2010-10-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau in the world, has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. The snowpack and glaciers over the TP provide fresh water to billions of people in Asian countries, but the TP glaciers have been retreating faster than those anywhere else in the world. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope, with concentration larger than 100 μg/kg. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative forcing induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to other snow-covered regions in the world. Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative forcing of 5-25 W m-2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0 °C averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1-4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April-July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation

  9. Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Flanner, M.; Leung, R.; Wang, W.

    2012-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative effect of black carbon (BC) and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative flux changes induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to any other snow-covered regions in the world. Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative flux changes of 5-25 W m-2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0oC averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1-4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April-July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its dynamical and thermal forcing. Simulation results show that during boreal spring

  10. Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Qian

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The Tibetan Plateau (TP, the highest and largest plateau in the world, has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. The snowpack and glaciers over the TP provide fresh water to billions of people in Asian countries, but the TP glaciers have been retreating faster than those anywhere else in the world. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative forcing of black carbon (BC and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope, with concentration larger than 100 μg/kg. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative forcing induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust in snow compared to other snow-covered regions in the world.

    Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative forcing of 5–25 W m−2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0 °C averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates. The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1–4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April–July, indicating that BC-in-snow more

  11. Hydrologic response to forest cover changes following a Mountain Pine Beetle outbreak in the context of a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Dan; Jost, Georg; Nelson, Harry; Smith, Russell

    2013-04-01

    Over the last 15 years, there has been extensive mortality of pine forests in western North America associated with an outbreak of Mountain Pine Beetle, often followed by salvage logging. The objective of this study was to quantify the separate and combined effects of forest recovery and climate change over the 21st century on catchment hydrology in the San Jose watershed, located in the semi-arid Interior Plateau of British Columbia. Forest cover changes were simulated using a dynamic spatial model that uses a decentralized planning approach. We implemented management strategies representing current timber management objectives around achieving targeted harvest levels and incorporating existing management constraints under two different scenarios, one with no climate change and one under climate change, using climate-adjusted growth and yield curves. In addition, higher rates of fire disturbance were modelled under climate change. Under climate change, while productivity improves for some species (mainly Douglas-fir on better quality sites), on drier and poorer quality sites most species, especially Lodgepole Pine, become significantly less productive, and stocking is reduced to the point that those sites transition into grasslands. The combined effect of initial age classes (where the forest has been severely impacted by MPB), increased fire, and reduced stocking results in a greater proportion of the forest in younger age classes compared to a "Business As Usual" scenario with no climate change. The hydrologic responses to changes in vegetation cover and climate were evaluated with the flexible Hydrology Emulator and Modelling Platform (HEMP) developed at the University of British Columbia. HEMP allows a flexible discretization of the landscape. Water is moved vertically within landscape units by processes such as precipitation, canopy interception and soil infiltration, and routed laterally between units as a function of local soil and groundwater storage. The

  12. Hydrological land surface response in a tropical regime and a midlatitudinal regime

    OpenAIRE

    Niyogi, Dev; Xue, Yongkang; Raman, Sethu

    2002-01-01

    A statistical–dynamical study was performed on the role of hydrometeorological interactions in the midlatitudes and the semiarid Tropics. For this, observations from two field experiments, the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) and the Hydrological Atmospheric Pilot Experiment (HAPEX)– Sahel, representative of the midlatitudes and the semiarid tropical conditions, and simulated results from a land surface model, Simplified Simple Biosphere (...

  13. Hydrological drought types in cold climates: quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative survey of impacts

    OpenAIRE

    A. F. Van Loon; S. W. Ploum; Parajka, J.; A. K. Fleig; Garnier, E.; Laaha, G.; H. A. J. van Lanen

    2015-01-01

    For drought management and prediction, knowledge of causing factors and socio-economic impacts of hydrological droughts is crucial. Propagation of meteorological conditions in the hydrological cycle results in different hydrological drought types that require separate analysis. In addition to the existing hydrological drought typology, we here define two new drought types related to snow and ice. A snowmelt drought is a deficiency in the s...

  14. River Stage Influences on Uranium Transport in a Hydrologically Dynamic Groundwater-Surface Water Transition Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zachara, John M.; Chen, Xingyuan; Murray, Christopher J.; Hammond, Glenn

    2016-03-17

    A tightly spaced well-field within a groundwater uranium (U) plume in the groundwater-surface water transition zone was monitored for a three year period for groundwater elevation and dissolved solutes. The plume discharges to the Columbia River, which displays a dramatic spring stage surge resulting from mountain snowmelt. Groundwater exhibits a low hydrologic gradient and chemical differences with river water. River water intrudes the site in spring. Specific aims were to assess the impacts of river intrusion on dissolved uranium (Uaq), specific conductance (SpC), and other solutes, and to discriminate between transport, geochemical, and source term heterogeneity effects. Time series trends for Uaq and SpC were complex and displayed large temporal well-to well variability as a result of water table elevation fluctuations, river water intrusion, and changes in groundwater flow directions. The wells were clustered into subsets exhibiting common temporal behaviors resulting from the intrusion dynamics of river water and the location of source terms. Concentration hot spots were observed in groundwater that varied in location with increasing water table elevation. Heuristic reactive transport modeling with PFLOTRAN demonstrated that mobilized U was transported between wells and source terms in complex trajectories, and was diluted as river water entered and exited the groundwater system. While uranium time-series concentration trends varied significantly from year to year as a result of climate-caused differences in the spring hydrograph, common and partly predictable response patterns were observed that were driven by water table elevation, and the extent and duration of the river water intrusion event.

  15. Hydrologic Sensitivities of Upper Indus Basin (North Pakistan) Rivers to Multi-Decadal Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhan, S. B.; Zhang, Y.; Ma, Y.; Haifeng, G.; Jilani, R.; Hashmi, D.; Rasul, G.

    2014-12-01

    Thermal inputs play a vital role in the management and seasonal distribution of stream-flows particularly in snow and glacier fed basins, therefore the signatures of the recent climate trends can also be observed in various hydrological variables in those basins. Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is located in the western part of Tibetan Plateau, and most of its flows are dependent on snow- and glacier-melt produced water, thus the analyses of historical stream-flows and climatic indicators in the snow-melt dominated rivers of UIB was carried out, which points towards an advance in the spring flow onset time over the past few decades. Trend results reveal that warm temperature spells in spring have occurred much earlier in recent years, which explains in part the trend in the timing of spring peak stream-flows owing to earlier occurrence of snow melt onset. The observed increase in spring stream-flows and decrease in summer stream-flows suggests a broad shift of snow-melt yield and spring peak flows. These trends are found to be strongest at lower elevations basins where winter temperatures are closer to the melting point, even modest variation in temperatures are capable to enforce large shifts in the basin hydrologic feedback. In addition, it appears that in recent years due to winter and spring warming, more of the precipitation is falling as rain rather than snow particularly in late winter and early spring seasons, consequently it is speculated that this shift in precipitation ratio (snow vs rain) and early warming spells might also affect local (basin-scale) Albedo via early recession and systematic decrease of snow cover area, which tends in lowering Albedo from an increased fraction of snow-free area, which instigate positive feedback on radiative balance that can perhaps causes local-scale heat redistribution, which collectively in turn augmented winter and early spring stream-flows in those basins. These observed hydro-climatological trends over UIB can have

  16. The access project: agro-climatic change and european soil suitability - a spatially distributed soil, agro-climatic and soil hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Loveland

    1996-09-01

    Full Text Available Most attempts to predict the effects of climate change on soils, and hence land use, have been made at coarse scales and have made little use of the detailed soil, land use and climatic information available. Much of this information is available in digital form and lends itself readily to manipulation by computer procedures, often within geographic information systems. The ACCESS project was designed to take advantage of this situation. The target was a spatially distributed soil, agro-climatic and soil hydrological model to predict the effects of climate change on land use within the European Community. In the event, the project was extended successfully to Hungary, Poland and Romania, which gave a much wider range of soil, soil hydrological and climatic regimes than originally envisaged. The model structure drew on earlier work, which related simple soil properties, such as might be obtained during soil surveys, to crop suitability. More powerful approaches to the estimation of the soil hydrological state and crop water demands were incorporated into the new model, as are new approaches to land type classification. Much effort also went into deriving robust pedo-transfer functions, which allow the derivation of soil hydrological properties from simple soil survey data. The new model (ACCESS was purposely designed to run at two levels; a more general approach to utilise the results of the site specific approach to allow extrapolation of the modelling to large areas of land, and a detailed approach to use site specific data for calibration and validation. The most significant difference between the two routes through the model, is that the site specific model operates at a daily meteorological time-step, whilst the broad scale model runs at a monthly time-step.

  17. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

  18. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff

  19. Investigation of Black Carbon Effects on Precipitation and Surface Hydrology over the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, H. L. R.; Liou, K. N.; Gu, Y.; Fovell, R. G.; Li, Q.

    2015-12-01

    The current Exceptional Drought (US Drought Monitor) over the western United States warrants an in-depth investigation of possible causes of decreased precipitation and surface hydrology. Black carbon (BC), being the most radiatively-absorptive of any aerosol species, has the potential to semi-directly influence atmospheric physics and dynamics. Aloft, BC can exacerbate the aridity in some areas while increasing precipitation in other locations. On the surface, BC can also alter surface hydrology parameters such as surface runoff and snow water equivalent. In this study, we examine the role of BC and its possible effect on spatial precipitation redistribution and surface hydrology west of and over the Rocky Mountains from an online and coupled meteorological and chemical perspective. In particular, we utilize the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model at the horizontal resolution of 30 km, employing the Fu-Liou-Gu plane-parallel radiation scheme and a three-dimensional radiation parameterization over mountainous areas to account for BC feedback with clouds, radiation, local circulation, and precipitation. Preliminary results of a January 2005 low pressure system show the inclusion of BC increases (decreases) precipitation on the windward (leeward) side of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, and the Sierra Nevada. Results also show BC contributes to an increase in surface runoff on the windward side of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, the Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, but a decrease in snow water equivalent over Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.

  20. A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, W.-L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.; Leung, L. R.; Hsu, H.-H.

    2015-05-01

    We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model version 4; Community Atmosphere Model/Community Land Model - CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23° x 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation (3-D-PP (plane-parallel)) adjustment to ensure that the energy balance at the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher-elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while it decreases for higher elevations, with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases at higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.

  1. Dual Heuristics for Assessment of Hydrologic Sensitivities to Climate Change in Watersheds of the Lower Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, K. W.; Murphy, B. S.; Ellis, A. W.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties surrounding potential impacts of climate change on water resources can be reduced in part by an accurate understanding of a watershed's hydrologic response to shifts in temperature and precipitation. This has typically been pursued by computationally-intensive land surface modeling involving complex parameterizations. A viable and more efficient alternative lies in two heuristics: temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity of runoff. Their comprehensive descriptions are vital for watersheds with distinct seasons, low runoff efficiencies, large coefficients of variation, and highly skewed distributions - such as for the Salt and Verde Rivers of the arid lower Colorado River Basin. Long data records together with an amplified temperature response of these watersheds relative to global trends enable a thorough exploration of temperature sensitivity and precipitation elasticity grounded in observational data. Regression analyses and kriging methods have been employed in this study to develop these seasonal heuristics. While results align with expectations at the mean, trends were revealed across key variables, posing important stream flow implications depending on relative position within the distributions. Winter temperature sensitivity is nearly indistinguishable at low evapotranspiration response, while it is significant in summer with overland flow impairment. It is lessened by an active monsoon season, which also dilutes loss contributions at reservoirs. Precipitation elasticity of runoff is often assumed to be approximately 2.0, but this study revealed higher values in winter and lower ones in summer, with smaller elasticity when approaching the base flow level and in the upper range of runoff efficiency. Descriptive algorithms have been derived that can be readily applied to distribution functions with any climate change assumption to assess stream flow impact and water resource sustainability for the region.

  2. Global surface water quality hotspots under climate change and anthropogenic developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Yearsley, John R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, freshwater usage for various sectors (e.g. agriculture, industry, energy and domestic) has more than doubled. A growing global population will place further demands on water supplies, whereas the availability and quality of water resources will be affected by climate change and human impacts. These developments will increase imbalances between fresh water demand and supply in terms of both water quantity and water quality. Here we discuss a methodology to identify regions of the world where surface water quality is expected to deteriorate under climate change and anthropogenic developments. Our approach integrates global hydrological-water quality modelling, climate and socio-economic scenarios and relations of water quality with physical and socio-economic drivers.

  3. Quantifying the impacts of climate change and ecological restoration on streamflow changes based on a Budyko hydrological model in China's Loess Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Wei; Bai, Dan; Wang, Feiyu; Fu, Bojie; Yan, Junping; Wang, Shuai; Yang, Yuting; Long, Di; Feng, Minquan

    2015-08-01

    Understanding hydrological effects of ecological restoration (ER) is fundamental to develop effective measures guiding future ER and to adapt climate change in China's Loess Plateau (LP). Streamflow (Q) is an important indicator of hydrological processes that represents the combined effects of climatic and land surface conditions. Here 14 catchments located in the LP were chosen to explore the Q response to different driving factors during the period 1961-2009 by using elasticity and decomposition methods based on the Budyko framework. Our results show that (1) annual Q exhibited a decreasing trend in all catchments (-0.30 ˜ -1.71 mm yr-2), with an average reduction of -0.87 mm yr-2. The runoff coefficients in flood season and nonflood season were both decreasing between two periods divided by the changing point in annual Q series; (2) the precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (E0) elasticity of Q are 2.75 and -1.75, respectively, indicating that Q is more sensitive to changes in P than that in E0; (3) the two methods consistently demonstrated that, on average, ER (62%) contributing to Q reduction was much larger than that of climate change (38%). In addition, parameter n that entails catchment characteristics in the Budyko framework showed positive correlation with the relative area of ER measures in all catchments (eight of them are statistically significant with p < 0.05). These findings highlight the importance of ER measures on modifying the hydrological partitioning in the region. However, ER actions over the sloping parts of the landscape weakened the impact of those in channels (i.e., check-dams) on Q, especially after the implementation of the Grain-for-Green project in 1999.

  4. Evaluation of five hydrological models across Europe and their suitability for making projections under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greuell, W.; Andersson, J. C. M.; Donnelly, C.; Feyen, L.; Gerten, D.; Ludwig, F.; Pisacane, G.; Roudier, P.; Schaphoff, S.

    2015-10-01

    The main aims of this paper are the evaluation of five large-scale hydrological models across Europe and the assessment of the suitability of the models for making projections under climate change. For the evaluation, 22 years of discharge measurements from 46 large catchments were exploited. In the reference simulations forcing was taken from the E-OBS dataset for precipitation and temperature, and from the WFDEI dataset for other variables. On average across all catchments, biases were small for four of the models, ranging between -29 and +23 mm yr-1 (-9 and +8 %), while one model produced a large negative bias (-117 mm yr-1; -38 %). Despite large differences in e.g. the evapotranspiration schemes, the skill to simulate interannual variability did not differ much between the models, which can be ascribed to the dominant effect of interannual variation in precipitation on interannual variation in discharge. Assuming that the skill of a model to simulate interannual variability provides a measure for the model's ability to make projections under climate change, the skill of future discharge projections will not differ much between models. The quality of the simulation of the mean annual cycles, and low and high discharge was found to be related to the degree of calibration of the models, with the more calibrated models outperforming the crudely and non-calibrated models. The sensitivity to forcing was investigated by carrying out alternative simulations with all forcing variables from WFDEI, which increased biases by between +66 and +85 mm yr-1 (21-28 %), significantly changed the inter-model ranking of the skill to simulate the mean and increased the magnitude of interannual variability by 28 %, on average.

  5. Efects of Crop Growth on Hydrological Processes in River Basins and on Regional Climate in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIN; Pei-Hua; CHEN; Feng; XIE; Zheng-Hui

    2013-01-01

    The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES,called the RegCM3CERES model,was used to study the efects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China.A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin,Songhuajiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin.When compared with the RegCM3 control run,RegCM3CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temperature over most of the seven basins in summer,especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin.The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer(JJA)was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze,Haihe,Huaihe and Pearl Rivers.The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components(runof,evapotranspiration and total precipitation)over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation.Compared to the RegCM3,RegCM3CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin,but reduced precipitation in the other five basins.Furthermore,a lower summer leaf area index(1.20 m2m 2),greater root soil moisture(0.01 m3m 3),lower latent heat flux(1.34 W m 2),and greater sensible heat flux(2.04 W m 2)are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin.

  6. The hydrological behaviour of extensive and intensive green roofs in a dry climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaghmanesh, M; Beecham, S

    2014-11-15

    This paper presents the results of a hydrological investigation of four medium scale green roofs that were set up at the University of South Australia. In this study, the potential of green roofs as a source control device was investigated over a 2 year period using four medium size green roof beds comprised of two growth media types and two media depths. During the term of this study, 226 rainfall events were recorded and these were representative of the Adelaide climate. In general, there were no statistically significant differences between the rainfall and runoff parameters for the intensive and extensive beds except for peak attenuation and peak runoff delay, for which higher values were recorded in the intensive beds. Longer dry periods generally resulted in higher retention coefficients and higher retention was also recorded in warmer seasons. The average retention coefficient for intensive systems (89%) was higher than for extensive systems (74%). It was shown that rainfall depth, intensity, duration and also average dry weather period between events can change the retention performance and runoff volume of the green roofs. Comparison of green and simulated conventional roofs indicated that the former were able to mitigate the peak of runoff and could delay the start of runoff. These characteristics are important for most source control measures. The recorded rainfall and runoff data displayed a non-linear relationship. Also, the results indicated that continuous time series modelling would be a more appropriate technique than using peak rainfall intensity methods for green roof design and simulation. PMID:25194906

  7. Improving pan-European hydrological simulation of extreme events through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Rojas

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work we asses the benefits of removing bias in climate forcing data used for hydrological climate change impact assessment at pan-European scale, with emphasis on floods. Climate simulations from the HIRHAM5-ECHAM5 model driven by the SRES-A1B emission scenario are corrected for bias using a histogram equalization method. As target for the bias correction we employ gridded interpolated observations of precipitation, average, minimum, and maximum temperature from the E-OBS data set. Bias removal transfer functions are derived for the control period 1961–1990. These are subsequently used to correct the climate simulations for the control period, and, under the assumption of a stationary error model, for the future time window 2071–2100. Validation against E-OBS climatology in the control period shows that the correction method performs successfully in removing bias in average and extreme statistics relevant for flood simulation over the majority of the European domain in all seasons. This translates into considerably improved simulations with the hydrological model of observed average and extreme river discharges at a majority of 554 validation river stations across Europe. Probabilities of extreme events derived employing extreme value techniques are also more closely reproduced. Results indicate that projections of future flood hazard in Europe based on uncorrected climate simulations, both in terms of their magnitude and recurrence interval, are likely subject to large errors. Notwithstanding the inherent limitations of the large-scale approach used herein, this study strongly advocates the removal of bias in climate simulations prior to their use in hydrological impact assessment.

  8. Applications of remote sensing and GIS in surface hydrology: Snow cover, soil moisture and precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianwei

    Studies on surface hydrology can generally be classified into two categories, observation for different components of surface water, and modeling their dynamic movements. This study only focuses on observation part of surface water components: snow cover, soil moisture, and precipitation. Moreover, instead of discussion on the detailed algorithm and instrument technique behind each component, this dissertation pours efforts on analysis of the standard remotely sensed products and their applications under different settings. First in Chapter 2, validation of MODIS Terra 8-day maximum snow cover composite (MOD10A2) in the Northern Xinjiang, China, from 2000-2006, shows that the 8-day MODIS/Terra product has high agreements with in situ measurements as the in situ snow depth is larger or equal to 4 cm, while the agreement is low for the patchy snow as the in situ snow depth less than 4 cm. According to the in situ observation, this chapter develops an empirical algorithm to separate the cloud-covered pixels into snow and no snow. Continued long-term production of MODIS-type snow cover product is critical to assess water resources of the study area, as well as other larger scale global environment monitoring. Terra and Aqua satellites carry the same MODIS instrument and provide two parallel MODIS daily snow cover products at different time (local time 10:30 am and 1:30 pm, respectively). Chapter 3 develops an algorithm and automated scripts to combine the daily MODIS Terra (MOD10A1) and Aqua (MYD10A1) snow cover products, and to automatically generate multi-day Terra-Aqua snow cover image composites, with flexible starting and ending dates and a user-defined cloud cover threshold. Chapter 4 systematically compares the difference between MODIS Terra and Aqua snow cover products within a hydrologic year of 2003-2004, validates the MODIS Terra and Aqua snow cover products using in situ measurements in Northern Xinjiang, and compares the accuracy among the standard MODIS

  9. Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  10. A STUDY OF THE REFERENCE CLIMATIC PARAMETERS AND THEIR IMPACT UPON THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME. CASE STUDY: IALOMITA HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela Borcan

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides an analysis for the evolution and spatio-temporal variation of two climatic parameters (precipitation and evapotranspiration) and one hydrological parameter (the flown water volume) over a common period of time (1970-2007) in Ialomita Hydrographical Basin which has been recently affected by extended periods of drought. In achieving this aim we started our analysis from the equation of the water balance in a large hydrographical basin over a long period of time. Among the el...

  11. Comparing snow models under current and future climates over three Nordic catchments: uncertainties and implications for hydrological impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulin, A.; Troin, M.; Baraer, M.; Brissette, F.

    2015-12-01

    Projected climate change effects on snow hydrology are investigated for the 2041-2060 horizon following the SRES A2 emissions scenario over three catchments in Quebec, Canada. A 16-member ensemble of eight snow models (SM) simulations, based on the high-resolution Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-15km) simulations driven by two realizations of the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3), is established per catchment. This study aims to compare a range of SMs in their ability at simulating snow processes under current climate, and to evaluate how they affect the assessment of the climate change-induced snow impacts at the catchment scale. The variability of snow processes caused by the use of two SM approaches (degree-day versus mixed degree-day/energy balance) is evaluated, as well as the uncertainty of natural climate variability (CRCM inter-member variability). The simulations in the virtual world cover 1961-1990 in the present period and 2041-2060 in the future period. This virtual world offers a high-resolution coherent dataset with no missing data or inconsistencies in time and in space. The virtual world experiments were compared to the same experiments over a short validation in the real world. The results show that, when comparing to snow water equivalent (SWE) from the virtual world, all SMs perform similarly at modeling SWE for the reference and future periods. These findings can be extended to the real world, where the SMs lead to a high level of agreement with the observations in reproducing catchment scale snow hydrology. The results of various snow indicators show that most of the uncertainty arises from natural climate variability followed by the SM. The uncertainty linked to the choice of a SM is larger than that associated with the choice of the SM approach in quantifying the snow hydrology impacts. Overall, the SMs provide a low degree of uncertainty to the total uncertainty in hydrologic modeling for climate change impact studies. Keywords

  12. Projected impacts of climate change on hydrology, water resource use and adaptation needs for the Chu and Talas cross-border rivers basin, Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamil Iliasov, Shamil; Dolgikh, Svetlana; Lipponen, Annukka; Novikov, Viktor

    2014-05-01

    The observed long-term trends, variability and projections of future climate and hydrology of the Chu and Talas transboundary rivers basin were analysed using a common approach for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan parts of the basin. Historical, current and forecasted demands and main uses of water in the basin were elaborated by the joint effort of both countries. Such cooperative approach combining scientific data, water practitioners' outlook with decision making needs allowed the first time to produce a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in the Chu-Talas transboundary rivers basin, identify future needs and develop the initial set of adaptation measures and recommendations. This work was carried out under the project "Promoting Cooperation to Adapt to Climate Change in the Chu and Talas Transboundary Basin", supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Climate change projections, including air temperatures and rainfall in the 21st century were determined with a spatial resolution 0.5 degrees based on the integration of 15 climate change model outputs (derived from IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, and partially 5th Assessment Report) combined with locally-designed hydrology and glacier models. A significant increase in surface air temperatures by 3-6°C may be expected in the basin area, especially in summer and autumn. This change is likely to be accompanied by rainfall increase during the cold season and a decrease in the warm half of the year. As a result, a deterioration of moisture conditions during the summer-autumn period is possible. Furthermore, milder winters and hotter summers can be expected. Mountains will likely receive more liquid precipitation, than snow, while the area and volume of glaciers may significantly reduce. Projected changes in climate and glaciers have implications for river hydrology and different sectors of the economy dependent

  13. Hydrological response to climate change in the Lesse and the Vesdre catchments: contribution of a physically based model (Wallonia, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bauwens

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Meuse is an important rain-fed river in North-Western Europe. Nine million people live in its catchment, split over five countries. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature characteristics due to climate change would have a significant impact on the Meuse River and its tributaries. In this study, we focused on the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two sub-catchments of the Meuse in Belgium, the Lesse and the Vesdre, placing the emphasis on the water-soil-plant continuum in order to highlight the effects of climate change on plant growth, and water uptake on the hydrology of two sub-catchments. These effects were studied using two climate scenarios and a physically based distributed model, which reflects the water-soil-plant continuum. Our results show that the vegetation will evapotranspirate between 10 and 17 % less at the end of the century because of water scarcity in summer, even if the root development is better under climate change conditions. In the low scenario, the mean minimal 7 days discharge value could decrease between 19 and 24 % for a two year return period, and between 20 and 35 % for a fifty year return period. It will lead to rare but severe drought in rivers, with potentially huge consequences on water quality.

  14. HOBE – a hydrological observatory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Illangasekare, Tissa

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a short introducO on is given to the Danish hydrological observatory—HOBE. We describe characteristics of the catchment, which is subject to experimental and modeling investigations. An overview is given of the research reported in this special section of the journal, which includes...... 11 papers of original research covering precipitation, evapotranspiration, emission of greenhouse gasses, unsaturated flow, groundwater–surface water interaction, and climate change impacts on hydrology....

  15. A lysimeter-based approach to quantify the impact of climate change on soil hydrological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slawitsch, Veronika; Steffen, Birk; Herndl, Markus

    2016-04-01

    The predicted climate change involving increasing CO2 concentrations and increasing temperatures will have effects on both vegetation and soil properties and thus on the soil water balance. The aim of this work is to quantify the effects of changes in these climatic factors on soil hydrological processes and parameters. For this purpose data of six high precision weighable lysimeters will be used. The lysimeters are part of a Lysi-T-FACE concept, where free-air will be enriched with CO2 (FACE-Technique) and infrared heaters heat the plots for investigation on effects of increasing temperatures (T-FACE-Technique). The Lysi-T-FACE concept was developed on the „Clim Grass Site" at the HBLFA Raumberg-Gumpenstein (Styria, Austria) in 2011 and 2012 with a total of 54 experimental plots. These include six plots with lysimeters where the two climatic factors are varied in different combinations. On the basis of these grass land lysimeters the soil hydraulic parameters under different experimental conditions will be investigated. The lysimeters are equipped with TDR-Trime sensors and temperature sensors combined with tensiometers in different depths. In addition, a mechanical separation snow cover system is implemented to obtain a correct water balance in winter. To be able to infer differences between the lysimeters reliably a verification of functionalities and a plausibility check of the data from the lysimeters as well as adequate data corrections are needed. Both an automatic and a user-defined control including the recently developed filter method AWAT (Adaptive Window and Adaptive Threshold Filter) are combined with a visualisation tool using the software NI DIAdem. For each lysimeter the raw data is classified in groups of matric potentials, soil water contents and lysimeter weights. Values exceeding technical thresholds are eliminated and marked automatically. The manual data control is employed every day to obtain high precision seepage water weights. The

  16. Regional Climate Simulations of the Hydrological Cycle in the Iberian Peninsula with a Coupled WRF-HYDRO Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios-Entenza, A.; Miguez-Macho, G.

    2008-12-01

    Land-atmosphere water exchanges and heat fluxes play an important role in climate and particularly in controlling precipitation in water-limited regions. One of such regions is the Iberian Peninsula, and in this study we examine the relevance of water recycling in convective precipitation regimes of the Fall and Spring there, when rainfall is critical for agriculture and many other human activities. We conducted simulations with WRF-ARW model at 5 km horizontal resolution, using a 1500 km x 1500 km nested grid that covers the Iberian Peninsula, with a parent domain that uses spectral nudging in order to avoid the distortion of the large-scale circulation caused by the interaction of the modeled flow with the lateral boundaries of the nested grid. For land-surface interactions we coupled WRF with the LEAF-HYDRO land surface model, which includes water table dynamics. We use therefore a tool that simulates the entire water cycle, including the water table, which has been reported to be critical for soil moisture dynamics in semi-arid regions like the Iberian Peninsula. For each one of the events that we selected, we performed two simulations: a control one, where all land-atmosphere feedbacks are taken into account, and the experiment, where infiltration of the precipitated water into the soil was suppressed. In this manner we explore the role of upward latent and sensible heat fluxes and evapotranspiration in precipitation dynamics. Preliminary results suggest that water recycling is a key factor in extending convective precipitation during several days, and that the total new water added in the area as a whole is only a fraction of the total measured rainfall. An estimation of this fraction is very important to better understanding the water budget and for hydrological planning in this water-stressed region.

  17. The Water Cycle from Space: Use of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology and Water Resource Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laymon, Charles; Blankenship, Clay; Khan, Maudood; Limaye, Ashutosh; Hornbuckle, Brian; Rowlandson, Tracy

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews how our understanding of the water cycle is enhanced by our use of satellite data, and how this informs land surface hydrology and water resource management. It reviews how NASA's current and future satellite missions will provide Earth system data of unprecedented breadth, accuracy and utility for hydrologic analysis.

  18. Recent changes in climate, hydrology and sediment load in the Wadi Abd, Algeria (1970–2010)

    OpenAIRE

    Achite, M.; Ouillon, S

    2015-01-01

    Here we investigate the changes of temperature, precipitation, river runoff and sediment transport in the Wadi Abd in NW Algeria over a time series of 40 hydrological years (1970–2010). Temperature increased and precipitation decreased with the reduction in rainfall being relatively higher during the rainy season. A shift towards an earlier onset of first rains during summer was also found with cascading effects on hydrology (hydrological regimes, vegetation etc) and thus on erosion ...

  19. Recent changes in climate, hydrology and sediment load in the Wadi Abd, Algeria (1970–2010)

    OpenAIRE

    Achite, Mohammed; Ouillon, Sylvain

    2016-01-01

    Here we investigate the changes of temperature, precipitation, river runoff and sediment transport in the Wadi Abd in northwest Algeria over a time series of 40 hydrological years (1970–2010). Temperature increased and precipitation decreased with the reduction in rainfall being relatively higher during the rainy season. A shift towards an earlier onset of first rains during summer was also found with cascading effects on hydrology (hydrological regimes, vegetation, et...

  20. Energy budget increases reduce mean streamflow more than snow–rain transitions: using integrated modeling to isolate climate change impacts on Rocky Mountain hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Lauren M.; Bearup, Lindsay A.; Molotch, Noah P.; Brooks, Paul D.; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2016-04-01

    In snow-dominated mountain regions, a warming climate is expected to alter two drivers of hydrology: (1) decrease the fraction of precipitation falling as snow; and (2) increase surface energy available to drive evapotranspiration. This study uses a novel integrated modeling approach to explicitly separate energy budget increases via warming from precipitation phase transitions from snow to rain in two mountain headwaters transects of the central Rocky Mountains. Both phase transitions and energy increases had significant, though unique, impacts on semi-arid mountain hydrology in our simulations. A complete shift in precipitation from snow to rain reduced streamflow between 11% and 18%, while 4 °C of uniform warming reduced streamflow between 19% and 23%, suggesting that changes in energy-driven evaporative loss, between 27% and 29% for these uniform warming scenarios, may be the dominant driver of annual mean streamflow in a warming climate. Phase changes induced a flashier system, making water availability more susceptible to precipitation variability and eliminating the runoff signature characteristic of snowmelt-dominated systems. The impact of a phase change on mean streamflow was reduced as aridity increased from west to east of the continental divide.

  1. Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the French SIM hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, C.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Wagner, W.

    2011-06-01

    The impact of assimilating near-surface soil moisture into the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) hydrological model over France is examined. Specifically, the root-zone soil moisture in the ISBA land surface model is constrained over three and a half years, by assimilating the ASCAT-derived surface degree of saturation product, using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter. In this experiment ISBA is forced with the near-real time SAFRAN analysis, which analyses the variables required to force ISBA from relevant observations available before the real time data cut-off. The assimilation results are tested against ISBA forecasts generated with a higher quality delayed cut-off SAFRAN analysis. Ideally, assimilating the ASCAT data will constrain the ISBA surface state to correct for errors in the near-real time SAFRAN forcing, the most significant of which was a substantial dry bias caused by a dry precipitation bias. The assimilation successfully reduced the mean root-zone soil moisture bias, relative to the delayed cut-off forecasts, by close to 50 % of the open-loop value. The improved soil moisture in the model then led to significant improvements in the forecast hydrological cycle, reducing the drainage, runoff, and evapotranspiration biases (by 17 %, 11 %, and 70 %, respectively). When coupled to the MODCOU hydrogeological model, the ASCAT assimilation also led to improved streamflow forecasts, increasing the mean discharge ratio, relative to the delayed cut off forecasts, from 0.68 to 0.76. These results demonstrate that assimilating near-surface soil moisture observations can effectively constrain the SIM model hydrology, while also confirming the accuracy of the ASCAT surface degree of saturation product. This latter point highlights how assimilation experiments can contribute towards the difficult issue of validating remotely sensed land surface observations over large spatial scales.

  2. Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the French SIM hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Draper

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of assimilating near-surface soil moisture into the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydrological model over France is examined. Specifically, the root-zone soil moisture in the ISBA land surface model is constrained over three and a half years, by assimilating the ASCAT-derived surface degree of saturation product, using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter. In this experiment ISBA is forced with the near-real time SAFRAN analysis, which analyses the variables required to force ISBA from relevant observations available before the real time data cut-off. The assimilation results are tested against ISBA forecasts generated with a higher quality delayed cut-off SAFRAN analysis. Ideally, assimilating the ASCAT data will constrain the ISBA surface state to correct for errors in the near-real time SAFRAN forcing, the most significant of which was a substantial dry bias caused by a dry precipitation bias. The assimilation successfully reduced the mean root-zone soil moisture bias, relative to the delayed cut-off forecasts, by close to 50 % of the open-loop value. The improved soil moisture in the model then led to significant improvements in the forecast hydrological cycle, reducing the drainage, runoff, and evapotranspiration biases (by 17 %, 11 %, and 70 %, respectively. When coupled to the MODCOU hydrogeological model, the ASCAT assimilation also led to improved streamflow forecasts, increasing the mean discharge ratio, relative to the delayed cut off forecasts, from 0.68 to 0.76. These results demonstrate that assimilating near-surface soil moisture observations can effectively constrain the SIM model hydrology, while also confirming the accuracy of the ASCAT surface degree of saturation product. This latter point highlights how assimilation experiments can contribute towards the difficult issue of validating remotely sensed land surface observations over large spatial scales.

  3. Twentieth Century Climate in the New York Hudson Highlands and the Potential Impacts on Eco-Hydrological Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warrach, K. [Institut fuer Physik und Meteorologie, Universitaet Hohenheim, Garbenstr. 30, 70593 Stuttgart (Germany); Stieglitz, M. [School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Shaman, J. [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Harvard (United States); Engel, V.C. [National Parks Service, Everglades National Park, Homestead, FL (United States); Griffin, K.L. [Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, New York (United States)

    2006-01-15

    During the 20th century the northeastern U.S.A. has undergone an annual temperature increase of 1C, the combined effect of winter warming and an increase in daily summer minimum temperatures. A significant cooling of spring through autumn in maximum air temperatures is also evident since 1950. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to document these climate trends and variability over the last century. A secondary objective is to provide a preliminary analysis of how these changes may have impacted hydrologic and ecosystem processes. Specifically, with respect to ecosystem processes, we examine how the cooling of daytime maximum temperatures may have impacted plant respiration and biomass accumulation. The study site is the Black Rock Forest, an experimental forest located in Hudson Highlands of New York that has been maintained as a conservation area over the last 100 years. For the region centered about the forest, there exists a climate/weather record and an extensively maintained biomass record that extends continuously from the early part of the 20th century through present. With such an extensive physical and biological record to draw from, this forest provides a microcosm for studying how changes in 20th century local and regional climate may have impacted ecosystem processes such as species adaptation, biomass growth, and 20th century carbon sequestration. In a subsequent paper we will more extensively explore the relationship between this record of changing climate and eco-hydrological processes.

  4. Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

  5. Detrital cave sediments record Late Quaternary hydrologic and climatic variability in northwestern Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Tyler S.; van Hengstum, Peter J.; Horgan, Meghan C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Reibenspies, Joseph H.

    2016-04-01

    Detrital sediment in Florida's (USA) submerged cave systems may preserve records of regional climate and hydrologic variability. However, the basic sedimentology, mineralogy, stratigraphic variability, and emplacement history of the successions in Florida's submerged caves remains poorly understood. Here we present stratigraphic, mineralogical, and elemental data on sediment cores from two phreatic cave systems in northwestern Florida (USA), on the Dougherty Karst Plain: Hole in the Wall Cave (HITW) and Twin Cave. Water flowing through these caves is subsurface flow in the Apalachicola River drainage basin, and the caves are located just downstream from Jackson Blue (1st magnitude spring, > 2.8 m3 s- 1 discharge). Sedimentation in these caves is dominated by three primary sedimentary styles: (i) ferromanganese deposits dominate the basal recovered stratigraphy, which pass upsection into (ii) poorly sorted carbonate sediment, and finally into (iii) fine-grained organic matter (gyttja) deposits. Resolving the emplacement history of the lower stratigraphic units was hampered by a lack of suitable material for radiocarbon dating, but the upper organic-rich deposits have a punctuated depositional history beginning in the earliest Holocene. For example, gyttja primarily accumulated in HITW and Twin Caves from ~ 5500 to 3500 cal yr. BP, which coincides with regional evidence for water-table rise of the Upper Floridian Aquifer associated with relative sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico, and evidence for invigorated drainage through the Apalachicola River drainage basin. Gyttja sediments were also deposited in one of the caves during the Bølling/Allerød climate oscillation. Biologically, these results indicate that some Floridian aquatic cave (stygobitic) ecosystems presently receive minimal organic matter supply in comparison to prehistoric intervals. The pre-Holocene poorly sorted carbonate sediment contains abundant invertebrate fossils, and likely documents a period

  6. Hydrological Responses of Andean Lakes and Tropical Floodplains to Climate Variability and Human Intervention: an Integrative Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, I. C.; González Morales, C.; Serna López, J. P.; Duque, C. L.; Canon Barriga, J. E.; Dominguez, F.

    2013-12-01

    Andean water bodies in tropical regions are significantly influenced by fluctuations associated with climatic and anthropogenic drivers, which implies long term changes in mountain snow peaks, land covers and ecosystems, among others. Our work aims at providing an integrative framework to realistically assess the possible future of natural water bodies with different degrees of human intervention. We are studying in particular the evolution of three water bodies in Colombia: two Andean lakes and a floodplain wetland. These natural reservoirs represent the accumulated effect of hydrological processes in their respective basins, which exhibit different patterns of climate variability and distinct human intervention and environmental histories. Modelling the hydrological responses of these local water bodies to climate variability and human intervention require an understanding of the strong linkage between geophysical and social factors. From the geophysical perspective, the challenge is how to downscale global climate projections in the local context: complex orography and relative lack of data. To overcome this challenge we combine the correlational and physically based analysis of several sources of spatially distributed biophysical and meteorological information to accurately determine aspects such as moisture sources and sinks and past, present and future local precipitation and temperature regimes. From the social perspective, the challenge is how to adequately represent and incorporate into the models the likely response of social agents whose water-related interests are diverse and usually conflictive. To deal with the complexity of these systems we develop interaction matrices, which are useful tools to holistically discuss and represent each environment as a complex system. Our goal is to assess partially the uncertainties of the hydrological balances in these intervened water bodies we establish climate/social scenarios, using hybrid models that combine

  7. Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Rousseau, Alain N; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Chouinard, Gérald

    2016-07-01

    Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC. PMID:26331624

  8. Hydrological Changes in the Climate System from Leaf Responsesto Increasing CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, B.; Dickinson, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    Vegetation is a major component of the climate system because of its controls on the energy and water balance over land. This functioning changes because of the physiological response of leaves to increased CO2. A climate model is used to compare these changes with the climate changes from radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. For this purpose, we use the Community Earth System Model coupled to a slab ocean. Ensemble integrations are done for current and doubled CO2. The consequent reduction of transpiration and net increase of surface radiative heating from reduction in cloudiness increases the temperature over land by a significant fraction of that directly from the radiative warming by CO2. Large-scale atmospheric circulation adjustments result. In particular, over the tropics, a low-level westerly wind anomaly develops associated with reduced geopotential height over land, enhancing moisture transport and convergence, and precipitation increases over the western Amazon, the Congo basin, South Africa, and Indonesia, while over mid-latitudes, land precipitation decreases from reduced evapotranspiration. On average, land precipitation is enhanced by 0.03 mm day-1 (about 19 % of the CO2 radiative forcing induced increase). This increase of land precipitation with decreased ET is an apparent negative feedback, i.e., less ET makes more precipitation. Global precipitation is slightly reduced. Runoff increases associated with both the increased land precipitation and reduced evapotranspiration. Examining the consistency of the variations among ensemble members shows that vegetation feedbacks on precipitation are more robust over the tropics and in mid to high latitudes than over the subtropics where vegetation is sparse and the internal climate variability has a larger influence.

  9. Analysis of the sensitivity of water balance components to hydrological conditions and climatic change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nassery, H.; Buchtele, Josef

    Ljubljana : International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 1997, s. 205-212. [FRIEND '97 - Regional Hydrology Concepts and Models for Sustainable Water Resource Management . Postojna (SI), 30.09.1997-05.10.1997] R&D Projects: GA ČR PECO Grant ostatní: European Econ. Com.(XE) EV5V-CT94-0114

  10. Hydrological Modelling and data assimilation of Satellite Snow Cover Area using a Land Surface Model, VIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naha, Shaini; Thakur, Praveen K.; Aggarwal, S. P.

    2016-06-01

    The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH) have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006). Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU), rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated using observed

  11. Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2016-06-01

    We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed. PMID:27162339

  12. Evolution of Lake Chad Basin hydrology during the mid-Holocene: A preliminary approach from lake to climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Schuster, Mathieu; Ramstein, Gilles; Krinnezr, Gerhard; Girard, Jean-Francois; Vignaud, Patrick; Brunet, Michel

    2008-03-01

    simulated response of Lake Chad to the hydrologic changes caused by 6 kyr BP forcings (orbital variations, albedo, sea surface temperatures) as a test for a future use of the model for studies of the Miocene climate. We show that the induced northward shift of the simulated ITCZ, and the hydrological changes around the lake caused by this shift, are consistent with an increased water balance over the Lake Chad Basin 6000 yr ago. Water supply from the soil (runoff and river inputs) will have to be taken into account in further simulations in order to discuss the timing of the onset, expansion and decay of such a giant water surface in subtropical Africa.

  13. Hydrological analysis relevant to surface water storage at Jabiluka. Supervising Scientist report 142

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report is prepared for the Supervising Scientist at Jabiru. It describes part of an investigation into hydrological issues relating to the water management system proposed for the Jabiluka project. Specifically, the objective is to estimate the water storage capacity required to store surface runoff and other water within the total containment zone (TCZ) of the Jabiluka project. The water storage volume is calculated for a range of probabilities up to 0.002% that the pond design volume would be exceeded over a 30-year mine life. In this study, 50 000 sets of 30 years of daily rainfall and monthly pan evaporation data are stochastically generated to simulate the storage water balance. The approach used by Kinhill and Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) is reviewed and the pond design compared with the estimates derived here. The Kinhill-ERA approach is described in the Jabiluka Mill Alternative Public Environment Report and the Jabiluka Mill Alternative Public Environment Report Technical Appendices (hereon referred to as Jabiluka PER Appendices) (1998). The two reports also provide background to many other issues. The structural design of the storage and other features of the mine site are not considered here. This study also assumes that the bunds and other drainage diversion structures will prevent all water outside the TCZ from entering the TCZ and vice versa. The storage water balance components are discussed in section 2. Some of the water inflows into the storage and losses from the storage are discussed in detail, while elsewhere, the values used by Kinhill-ERA are adopted. Section 3 describes the selection of the climate stations used here, the rainfall and pan evaporation characteristics in the area and the stochastic generation of 1.5 million years of daily rainfall and monthly pan evaporation data. Section 4 describes the approach used to estimate the storage capacity, and presents the storage capacity estimates for various probabilities of

  14. The significance of surface complexation reactions in hydrologic systems: a geochemist's perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koretsky, C.

    2000-05-01

    Complexation reactions at the mineral-water interface affect the transport and transformation of metals and organic contaminants, nutrient availability in soils, formation of ore deposits, acidification of watersheds and the global cycling of elements. Such reactions can be understood by quantifying speciation reactions in homogeneous aqueous solutions, characterizing reactive sites at mineral surfaces and developing models of the interactions between aqueous species at solid surfaces. In this paper, the application of thermodynamic principles to quantify aqueous complexation reactions is described. This is followed by a brief overview of a few of the methods that have been used to characterize reactive sites on mineral surfaces. Next, the application of empirical and semi-empirical models of adsorption at the mineral-water interface, including distribution coefficients, simple ion exchange models, and Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms is discussed. Emphasis is placed on the limitations of such models in providing an adequate representation of adsorption in hydrological systems. These limitations arise because isotherms do not account for the structure of adsorbed species, nor do they account for the development of surface charge with adsorption. This is contrasted with more sophisticated models of adsorption, termed 'surface complexation models', which include the constant capacitance model, the diffuse layer model, the triple layer model and the MUSIC model. In these models, speciation reactions between surface functional groups and dissolved species control the variable surface charge build-up and the specific adsorption properties of minerals in aqueous solutions. Next, the influence of mineral surface speciation on the reactivity of adsorbed species and on far from equilibrium dissolution rates of minerals is discussed. Finally, the applicability of microscopic models of surface complexation to field-scale systems is explored and the need to integrate

  15. Hydrological connectivity of alluvial Andean valleys: a groundwater/surface-water interaction case study in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzmán, Pablo; Anibas, Christian; Batelaan, Okke; Huysmans, Marijke; Wyseure, Guido

    2016-06-01

    The Andean region is characterized by important intramontane alluvial and glacial valleys; a typical example is the Tarqui alluvial plain, Ecuador. Such valley plains are densely populated and/or very attractive for urban and infrastructural development. Their aquifers offer opportunities for the required water resources. Groundwater/surface-water (GW-SW) interaction generally entails recharge to or discharge from the aquifer, dependent on the hydraulic connection between surface water and groundwater. Since GW-SW interaction in Andean catchments has hardly been addressed, the objectives of this study are to investigate GW-SW interaction in the Tarqui alluvial plain and to understand the role of the morphology of the alluvial valley in the hydrological response and in the hydrological connection between hillslopes and the aquifers in the valley floor. This study is based on extensive field measurements, groundwater-flow modelling and the application of temperature as a groundwater tracer. Results show that the morphological conditions of a valley influence GW-SW interaction. Gaining and losing river sections are observed in narrow and wide alluvial valley sections, respectively. Modelling shows a strong hydrological connectivity between the hillslopes and the alluvial valley; up to 92 % of recharge of the alluvial deposits originates from lateral flow from the hillslopes. The alluvial plain forms a buffer or transition zone for the river as it sustains a gradual flow from the hills to the river. Future land-use planning and development should include concepts discussed in this study, such as hydrological connectivity, in order to better evaluate impact assessments on water resources and aquatic ecosystems.

  16. High Resolution Climatic Surfaces of Nallihan Ecosystem in Turkey; a Convenient Methodology to Create Climate Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mete Dogan, Hakan

    In this study, a new methodology, based upon Local Climate Estimator (LOCCLIM) free software of Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN), was developed to create the climatic maps of Nallihan Region in Turkey. Suggested methodology improves the spatial resolution quality of the derived climatic data and contains the steps that show how climatic surfaces can be established in geographic information system (GIS) environment. For this purpose, total 570 points (sites) were established with 0.01 decimal degree (~1000 m) grid intervals on the map of study area. Then, climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) of each point was derived by using LOCCLIM and (user defined) digital elevation model (DEM) with 1/25000 scale. Finally, climatic maps were developed by using derived point data and Inverse Distance Weighted Average (IDWA) method in GIS. To test the developed climatic surface maps, linear regression analyses were conducted with the original climatic data. Additional climatic surfaces were produced by using regression equations, DEM and map calculation functions of GIS. All developed climatic maps originated from LOCCLIM were subtracted from the corresponding regressed surface maps. The differences were found low for temperature variables, when some great differences were detected for the other climatic variables. Results showed that LOCCLIM supplied a strong background as a worldwide database source and software and proposed methodology could be a good solution to create the temperature related continuous surfaces. On the other hand, it is concluded that users should be cautious when they are working with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variables.

  17. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models

  18. Simulating hydrology with an isotopic land surface model in western Siberia: what do we learn from water isotopes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Guglielmo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Improvements in the evaluation of land surface models would translate into more reliable predictions of future climate changes, as significant uncertainties persist in the quantification and representation of the relative contributions of soil and vegetation to the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of water stable isotopes in land surface models studying land surface processes. To achieve this, we implemented 18O and 2H and the computation of the oxygen (δ18O and deuterium (δD stable isotope composition of soil and leaf water pools in a~recent version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE. We performed point-wise simulations with this new model and evaluated its performance on vertical profiles of soil water isotope ratios measured in summer 2012 at four experimental sites located in a boreal region of the Artic zone of western Siberia. The model performed relatively well in simulating some features of the δ18O soil profiles, but poorly reproduced the d-excess profiles, at all four stations. The response of the simulated δ18O profiles to variations in key hydrological parameters revealed the importance of the choice of a correct infiltration pathway in ORCHIDEE. Our results show also that the strength of the evaporative enrichment signal plays a role in shaping the profiles, too and, therefore, the relevance of the vegetation and bare soil characterization. We investigated furthermore to which extent we are able to determine the relative contribution of the evaporation to the evapotranspiration. This study's results confirm that the use of water stable isotopes measurements helps constrain the representation of key land surface processes in land surface models.

  19. Simulating hydrology with an isotopic land surface model in western Siberia: what do we learn from water isotopes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, F.; Risi, C.; Ottlé, C.; Valdayskikh, V.; Radchenko, T.; Nekrasova, O.; Cattani, O.; Stukova, O.; Jouzel, J.; Zakharov, V.; Dantec-Nédélec, S.; Ogée, J.

    2015-09-01

    Improvements in the evaluation of land surface models would translate into more reliable predictions of future climate changes, as significant uncertainties persist in the quantification and representation of the relative contributions of soil and vegetation to the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of water stable isotopes in land surface models studying land surface processes. To achieve this, we implemented 18O and 2H and the computation of the oxygen (δ18O) and deuterium (δD) stable isotope composition of soil and leaf water pools in a~recent version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE. We performed point-wise simulations with this new model and evaluated its performance on vertical profiles of soil water isotope ratios measured in summer 2012 at four experimental sites located in a boreal region of the Artic zone of western Siberia. The model performed relatively well in simulating some features of the δ18O soil profiles, but poorly reproduced the d-excess profiles, at all four stations. The response of the simulated δ18O profiles to variations in key hydrological parameters revealed the importance of the choice of a correct infiltration pathway in ORCHIDEE. Our results show also that the strength of the evaporative enrichment signal plays a role in shaping the profiles, too and, therefore, the relevance of the vegetation and bare soil characterization. We investigated furthermore to which extent we are able to determine the relative contribution of the evaporation to the evapotranspiration. This study's results confirm that the use of water stable isotopes measurements helps constrain the representation of key land surface processes in land surface models.

  20. Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leterme, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The

  1. Evaluating hydrologic response to land cover and climate change: An example from the Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, J. W.; Briggs, M.; Kulongoski, J. T.; Pollock, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    The Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge is located in the central Pacific Ocean, about 1,000 miles south of the island of Oahu. Impacts on the atoll's hydrologic and ecologic systems are anticipated from two key anthropogenic drivers of change: (1) eradication of invasive coconut palms and replanting of native Pisonia grandis trees, and (2) global climate change. In the near-term, the palm eradication program is expected to modify the distribution and quality of groundwater proximal to the reforested areas. Longer term, sea level rise, changes in precipitation, and changes in storm frequency and intensity are expected to have a broader impact on the freshwater resources of the atoll. We have initiated a project to characterize current climatic and hydrologic conditions on Palmyra, and monitor changes in order to model baseline conditions and future changes in groundwater distribution. Because rain water harvest satisfies human need on Palmyra, the atoll enables study of groundwater resource change uncomplicated by groundwater pumping stress. Field trips conducted in 2008 and 2013 have included geophysical surveys, weather station upgrades, installation of monitoring wells, and geochemical sampling. Nine wells have been installed on Cooper Island (the largest island of the atoll), each instrumented with a combination of temperature, conductivity, and pressure sensors. Repeated frequency-domain electromagnetic conductivity surveys indicate a reduction in the thickness of the freshwater lens on the southern side of the Cooper Island since 2008, possibly linked to recent modification to the atoll's runway and drainage system. These results indicate that we can successfully capture future transformations induced by land cover and climate changes. The Palmyra Atoll project provides open-source information and insight about human-driven change to the vulnerable freshwater resources of low-lying islands; we hope others will take interest in, and make use of the

  2. Description of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes the modelling of the surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that was performed for the final site descriptive model of Forsmark produced in the site investigation stage, SDM-Site Forsmark. The comprehensive investigation and monitoring programme forms a strong basis for the developed conceptual and descriptive model of the hydrological and near-surface hydrological system of the site investigation area. However, there are some remaining uncertainties regarding the interaction of deep and near-surface groundwater and surface water of importance for the understanding of the system: The groundwaters in till below Lake Eckarfjaerden, Lake Gaellbotraesket, Lake Fiskarfjaerden and Lake Bolundsfjaerden have high salinities. The hydrological and hydrochemical interpretations indicate that these waters are relict waters of mainly marine origin. From the perspective of the overall water balance, the water below the central parts of the lakes can be considered as stagnant. However, according to the hydrochemical interpretation, these waters also contain weak signatures of deep saline water. Rough chloride budget calculations for the Gaellbotraesket depression also raise the question of a possible upward flow of deep groundwater. No absolute conclusion can be drawn from the existing data analyses regarding the key question of whether there is a small ongoing upward flow of deep saline water. However, Lake Bolundsfjaerden is an exception where the clear downward flow gradient from the till to the bedrock excludes the possibility of an active deep saline source. The available data indicate that there are no discharge areas for flow systems involving deep bedrock groundwater in the northern part of the tectonic lens, where the repository is planned to be located (the so-called 'target area'). However, it can not be excluded that such discharge areas exist. Data indicate that the prevailing downward vertical flow gradients from the QD to the bedrock

  3. Description of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof (Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    This report describes the modelling of the surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that was performed for the final site descriptive model of Forsmark produced in the site investigation stage, SDM-Site Forsmark. The comprehensive investigation and monitoring programme forms a strong basis for the developed conceptual and descriptive model of the hydrological and near-surface hydrological system of the site investigation area. However, there are some remaining uncertainties regarding the interaction of deep and near-surface groundwater and surface water of importance for the understanding of the system: The groundwaters in till below Lake Eckarfjaerden, Lake Gaellbotraesket, Lake Fiskarfjaerden and Lake Bolundsfjaerden have high salinities. The hydrological and hydrochemical interpretations indicate that these waters are relict waters of mainly marine origin. From the perspective of the overall water balance, the water below the central parts of the lakes can be considered as stagnant. However, according to the hydrochemical interpretation, these waters also contain weak signatures of deep saline water. Rough chloride budget calculations for the Gaellbotraesket depression also raise the question of a possible upward flow of deep groundwater. No absolute conclusion can be drawn from the existing data analyses regarding the key question of whether there is a small ongoing upward flow of deep saline water. However, Lake Bolundsfjaerden is an exception where the clear downward flow gradient from the till to the bedrock excludes the possibility of an active deep saline source. The available data indicate that there are no discharge areas for flow systems involving deep bedrock groundwater in the northern part of the tectonic lens, where the repository is planned to be located (the so-called 'target area'). However, it can not be excluded that such discharge areas exist. Data indicate that the prevailing downward vertical flow gradients from the QD to

  4. A study of climate change impacts on hydrologic regime of the Vogršček accumulation (SW Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Trček

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on hydrologic regime of the Vogršček accumulation (Vipava valley were studied for a decade period 1995-2004. During this time water capture from the accumulation has been increased. Although a pumping did not influence the accumulationlevel a lot, it oscillated much different during single halves of the decade. The results indicated that this could result from a decrease of effective precipitation amounts, which recharge the accumulation, from changes of their distribution, as well as from an increasedfrequency of extreme dry periods and extreme precipitation events during the second decade half.

  5. 30 CFR 817.57 - Hydrologic balance: Surface activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... MINING RECLAMATION AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR PERMANENT PROGRAM PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PERMANENT PROGRAM PERFORMANCE STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.57 Hydrologic balance: Surface... permittee or operator, may not conduct surface activities that would disturb the surface of land within...

  6. A one-dimensional interactive soil-atmosphere model for testing formulations of surface hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.

    1990-01-01

    A model representing a soil-atmosphere column in a GCM is developed for off-line testing of GCM soil hydrology parameterizations. Repeating three representative GCM sensitivity experiments with this one-dimensional model demonstrates that, to first order, the model reproduces a GCM's sensitivity to imposed changes in parameterization and therefore captures the essential physics of the GCM. The experiments also show that by allowing feedback between the soil and atmosphere, the model improves on off-line tests that rely on prescribed precipitation, radiation, and other surface forcing.

  7. Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River Basin – Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ribeiro Neto

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change especially in the arid and semi-arid tropics. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of reservoirs and related infrastructure to meet targets for water supply in the Capibaribe River Basin (CRB, in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-urban reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now increasingly experiencing water-scarcity effects. As a result, rural populations in the CRB are concentrating around infrastructural water supplies in a socio-hydrological transition process that results from (a hydroclimatic variability, (b investment and assistance programs that may enhance but can also supplant local adaptive capacity, and (c demographic trends driving urbanization of the state capital, Recife, which mirror urban growth across Brazil. In the CRB, demands are currently composed of 69.1% urban potable water, 14.3% industrial, 16.6% irrigation (with ecosystem-service demands met by residual flow. Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 31.8% translated to streamflow reduction of 67.4% under present reservoir operations rules. The increasing demand due to population was also taken into account. This would entail severe water supply reductions for human consumption (−45.3% and irrigation (−78.0% by the end of the 21st century. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the broader

  8. Parameter Estimation of a Physically-Based Land Surface Hydrologic Model Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Y.; Davis, K. J.; Zhang, F.; Duffy, C.

    2012-12-01

    A fully-coupled physically-based land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, is developed by incorporating a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land-surface scheme is mainly adapted from the Noah LSM, which is widely used in mesoscale atmospheric models and has undergone extensive testing. Because PIHM is capable of simulating lateral water flow and deep groundwater, Flux-PIHM is able to represent both the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as some of the land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. Flux-PIHM has been implemented and manually calibrated at the Shale Hills watershed (0.08 km2) in central Pennsylvania. Model predictions of discharge, soil moisture, water table depth, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and soil temperature show good agreement with observations. The discharge prediction is significantly better than state-of-the-art conceptual models implemented at similar watersheds. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) provides a promising approach for physically-based land surface hydrologic model calibration. A Flux-PHIM data assimilation system is developed by incorporating EnKF into Flux-PIHM for model parameter and state estimation. This is the first parameter estimation using EnKF for a physically-based hydrologic model. Both synthetic and real data experiments are performed at the Shale Hills watershed to test the capability of EnKF in parameter estimation. Six model parameters selected from a model parameter sensitivity test are estimated. In the synthetic experiments, synthetic observations of discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, land surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and transpiration are assimilated into the system. Observations are assimilated every 72 hours in wet periods, and every 144 hours in dry periods. Results show that EnKF is capable of accurately estimating model parameter values for Flux-PIHM. In the first set of experiments

  9. Evapotranspiration and runoff from large land areas: Land surface hydrology for atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, Eric F.

    1993-01-01

    A land surface hydrology parameterization for use in atmospheric GCM's is presented. The parameterization incorporates subgrid scale variability in topography, soils, soil moisture and precipitation. The framework of the model is the statistical distribution of a topography-soils index, which controls the local water balance fluxes, and is therefore taken to represent the large land area. Spatially variable water balance fluxes are integrated with respect to the topography-soils index to yield our large topography-soils distribution, and interval responses are weighted by the probability of occurrence of the interval. Grid square averaged land surface fluxes result. The model functions independently as a macroscale water balance model. Runoff ratio and evapotranspiration efficiency parameterizations are derived and are shown to depend on the spatial variability of the above mentioned properties and processes, as well as the dynamics of land surface-atmosphere interactions.

  10. Global climate models’ bias in surface temperature trends and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth has warmed in the last century with the most rapid warming occurring near the surface in the Arctic. This Arctic amplification occurs partly because the extra heat is trapped in a thin layer of air near the surface due to the persistent stable-stratification found in this region. The amount of warming depends upon the extent of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere, which is described by the depth of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Global climate models (GCMs) tend to over-estimate the depth of stably-stratified ABLs, and here we show that GCM biases in the ABL depth are strongly correlated with biases in the surface temperature variability. This highlights the need for a better description of the stably-stratified ABL in GCMs in order to constrain the current uncertainty in climate variability and projections of climate change in the surface layer. (letter)

  11. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in the biosphere assessment BSA-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Finnish nuclear waste disposal company, Posiva Oy, is planning an underground repository for spent nuclear fuel to be constructed on the island of Olkiluoto on the south-west coast of Finland. This study is part of the biosphere assessment (BSA-2012) within the safety case for the repository. The surface hydrological modelling described in this report is aimed at providing link between radionuclide transport in the geosphere and in the biosphere systems. The SVAT-model and Olkiluoto site scale surface hydrological model were calibrated and validated in the present day conditions using the input data provided by the Olkiluoto Monitoring Programme (OMO). During the next 10 000 years the terrain and ecosystem development is to a large extent driven by the postglacial crustal uplift. UNTAMO is a GIS toolbox developed for simulating land-uplift driven or other changes in the biosphere. All the spatial and temporal input data (excluding meteorological data) needed in the surface hydrological modelling were provided by the UNTAMO toolbox. The specific outputs given by UNTAMO toolbox are time-dependent evolution of the biosphere objects. They are continuous and sufficiently homogeneous sub-areas of the modelled area that could potentially receive radionuclides released from the repository. Possible ecosystem types for biosphere objects are coast, lake, river, forest, cropland, pasture and wetland. The primary goal of this study was to compute vertical and horizontal water fluxes in the biosphere objects. These data will be used in the biosphere radionuclide transport calculations. The method adopted here is based on calculating average vertical and horizontal fluxes for biosphere objects from the results of the full 3D-model. It was not necessary to develop any simplified hydrological model for the biosphere objects. This report includes modelling results from for the Reference Case (present day climate) and TerrMaxAgri Case (maximum extent of agricultural areas and

  12. Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are ...

  13. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    OpenAIRE

    N. Wanders; Lanen, van, H.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forci...

  14. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    OpenAIRE

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological droughts characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a results of climate change. Magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is largely unknown. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three General Circulation Models for the A2 emission scenario (GCM forced...

  15. Projection of climate change and its impact on the hydrological regimes of the Vistula and the Odra watersheds as the two major river basins in Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Berezowski, Tomasz; Kardel, Ignacy; Okruszko, Tomasz; Dobler, Andreas; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew

    2016-04-01

    Water resources management and associated hydrological risks require a reliable characterisation of hydrological behaviour under historical and future climate conditions. Even under the historical climate conditions, it is difficult to estimate the natural variability of hydrological regimes. We propose high-resolution simulations of natural daily streamflow for the period 1951-2013 in a dense network of river reaches of the transboundary Vistula and Odra basins occupying 313,000 km2, using SWAT model. The SWAT model is calibrated on a gridded daily (minimum and maximum) temperature and precipitation dataset (5 km resolution) developed, for this purpose, for the entire study area based on kriging technique (DOI 10.4121/uuid:e939aec0-bdd1-440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07). After validating the SWAT model in reproducing key observed hydrological features in a set of 80 relatively unimpaired sub-catchments, nine hydrological projections are produced where gridded meteorological variables as inputs in SWAT are replaced with meteorological variables from nine GCM-RCM runs projected to the year 2100 for RCP 4.5 provided within the EURO-CORDEX experiment. We will first present a comparison of the performance of the hydrological SWAT model driven by GCM-RCM runs for the historical period using both bias-corrected and raw GCM-RCM output variables. A particular interest will be on how well reproduced are meteorological extremes. Then, we will present the ability of the combined simulation approach to reproduce reliable change of key hydrological variables and especially extreme floods at different spatial scales of the catchments. Finally, hydrological projections under future climate conditions and their impacts on the Odra and Vistula river basins are analysed and discussed. Acknowledgements. Support of the project CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) of the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme is gratefully acknowledged.

  16. A WRF simulation of the impact of 3-D radiative transfer on surface hydrology over the Rocky–Sierra Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. N. Liou

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Essentially all modern climate models utilize a plane-parallel (PP radiative transfer approach in physics parameterizations; however, the potential errors that arise from neglecting three-dimensional (3-D interactions between radiation and mountains/snow on climate simulations have not been studied and quantified. This paper is a continuation of our efforts to investigate 3-D mountains/snow effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the Western United States, specifically the Rocky and Sierra-Nevada Mountains. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model applied at a 30 km grid resolution with incorporation of a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization covering a time period from 1 November 2007 to 31 May 2008 during which abundant snowfall occurred. Comparison of the 3-D WRF simulation with the observed snow water equivalent (SWE and precipitation from Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL sites shows reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and daily and seasonal variability, although the simulation generally has a positive precipitation bias. We show that 3-D mountain features have a profound impact on the diurnal and monthly variation of surface radiative and heat fluxes and on the consequent elevation-dependence of snowmelt and precipitation distributions. In particular, during the winter months, large deviations (3-D–PP of the monthly mean surface solar flux are found in the morning and afternoon hours due to shading effects for elevations below 2.5 km. During spring, positive deviations shift to earlier morning. Over the mountain tops above 3 km, positive deviations are found throughout the day, with the largest values of 40–60 W m−2 occurring at noon during the snowmelt season of April to May. The monthly SWE deviations averaged over the entire domain show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runo