WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate sensitivity results

  1. Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindzen, Richard [M.I.T.

    2011-11-09

    Warming observed thus far is entirely consistent with low climate sensitivity. However, the result is ambiguous because the sources of climate change are numerous and poorly specified. Model predictions of substantial warming aredependent on positive feedbacks associated with upper level water vapor and clouds, but models are notably inadequate in dealing with clouds and the impacts of clouds and water vapor are intimately intertwined. Various approaches to measuring sensitivity based on the physics of the feedbacks will be described. The results thus far point to negative feedbacks. Problems with these approaches as well as problems with the concept of climate sensitivity will be described.

  2. The climate impact of energy peat utilisation - comparison and sensitivity analysis of Finnish and Swedish results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, Kristina; Kirkinen, Johanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2006-06-15

    The climate impact of energy peat utilisation have been studied both in Finland by VTT Technical Research Centre and in Sweden by IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd. The main objective of this study is to compare the results of earlier studies by VTT and IVL and to perform a sensitivity analysis of previous and new results. The scientific approach of the two studies is very similar. The climate impact of peat utilisation is considered from a life-cycle point of view by taking into account all phases of the peat utilisation chain. Peat reserves can be both sinks and sources of greenhouse gas emissions as well as there are both uptake and emissions of greenhouse gases during the utilisation chain. The net impact of the utilisation chain is assessed as the climate impact due to the utilisation chain minus the climate impact of non-utilisation chain. The instantaneous radiative forcing and accumulated radiative forcing are used in both studies as the indicator of the climate impact. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes due to emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases. The differences in the models for calculating concentrations and radiative forcing are minor. There are some differences in the definitions and boundaries of the considered peat utilisation chains, although the differences in the results due to differences in the chain definitions are small. The main reason for the differences in results between the two studies is differences in emission (and uptake) estimates for the after-treatment phase and the non-utilisation chain. Both Swedish and Finnish studies show that the use of cultivated peatland for energy peat utilisation results in lower climate impact than using coal (within 100 years). Both studies show that the use of pristine mires for peat production will result in larger climate impact than the use of already drained peatlands. The climate impact of peat utilisation chains where fens and forestry

  3. The climate impact of energy peat utilisation - comparison and sensitivity analysis of Finnish and Swedish results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, Kristina; Kirkinen, Johanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2006-06-15

    The climate impact of energy peat utilisation have been studied both in Finland by VTT Technical Research Centre and in Sweden by IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd. The main objective of this study is to compare the results of earlier studies by VTT and IVL and to perform a sensitivity analysis of previous and new results. The scientific approach of the two studies is very similar. The climate impact of peat utilisation is considered from a life-cycle point of view by taking into account all phases of the peat utilisation chain. Peat reserves can be both sinks and sources of greenhouse gas emissions as well as there are both uptake and emissions of greenhouse gases during the utilisation chain. The net impact of the utilisation chain is assessed as the climate impact due to the utilisation chain minus the climate impact of non-utilisation chain. The instantaneous radiative forcing and accumulated radiative forcing are used in both studies as the indicator of the climate impact. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes due to emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases. The differences in the models for calculating concentrations and radiative forcing are minor. There are some differences in the definitions and boundaries of the considered peat utilisation chains, although the differences in the results due to differences in the chain definitions are small. The main reason for the differences in results between the two studies is differences in emission (and uptake) estimates for the after-treatment phase and the non-utilisation chain. Both Swedish and Finnish studies show that the use of cultivated peatland for energy peat utilisation results in lower climate impact than using coal (within 100 years). Both studies show that the use of pristine mires for peat production will result in larger climate impact than the use of already drained peatlands. The climate impact of peat utilisation chains where fens and forestry

  4. Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Previdi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the sensitivity of Earth's climate to an imposed external forcing is one of the great challenges in science and a critical component of efforts to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Climate sensitivity (or equilibrium global surface warming to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 has long been estimated to be about 3 °C, considering only fast climate feedbacks associated with increases in water vapor, decreases in sea ice, and changes in clouds. However, evidence from Earth's history suggests that slower surface albedo feedbacks due to vegetation change and melting of Greenland and Antarctica can come into play on the timescales of interest to humans, which could increase the sensitivity to significantly higher values, as much as 6 °C. Even higher sensitivity may result as present-day land and ocean carbon sinks begin to lose their ability to sequester anthropogenic CO2 in the coming decades. The evolving view of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene is therefore one in which a wider array of Earth system feedbacks are recognized as important. Since these feedbacks are overwhelmingly positive, the sensitivity is likely to be higher than has traditionally been assumed.

  5. Tropical convection and climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Ian Nobuo

    Surface temperature has become a popular measure of climate change, but it does not provide the most critical test of climate models. This thesis presents new methods to evaluate climate models based on processes determining the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing from atmospheric greenhouse gases. Cloud radiative feedbacks depend on temperature and relative humidity profiles in addition to surface temperature, through the dependence of cloud type on boundary layer buoyancy. Buoyancy provides a reference to which the onset of deep convection is invariant, and gives a compact description of sea surface temperature changes and cloud feedbacks suitable for diagnostics and as a basis for simplified climate models. This thesis also addresses uncertainties in climate sensitivity involving terrestrial ecosystem responses to global warming. Different diagnostics support different conclusions about atmospheric transport model errors that could imply either stronger or weaker northern terrestrial carbon sinks. Equilibrium boundary layer concepts were previously used in idealized tropical climate models, and are extended here to develop a diagnostic of boundary layer trace gas transport and mixing. Hypotheses linking surface temperature to climate and precipitation sensitivity were tested in this thesis using comprehensive and idealized climate model simulations, and observational datasets. The results do not support the thermostat hypothesis that predicts deep cloud cover will increase with radiative forcing and limit sea surface temperatures to the maximum present-day warm pool temperature. Warm pool temperatures increased along with or even faster than the tropical average over the past several decades, while diagnosed deep cloud cover has not significantly increased, in agreement with global warming simulations. Precipitation sensitivity also depends on more than surface temperature alone, including thermodynamic profiles and air-sea temperature differences. The

  6. Climate-sensitive subsea permafrost and related gas expulsions on the South Kara Sea shelf. Field studies and modeling results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnov, Alexey; Mienert, Jurgen; Serov, Pavel

    2015-04-01

    Thawing subsea permafrost controls methane release bearing a considerable impact on the climate-sensitive Arctic environment. Significant expulsion of methane into shallow Russian shelf areas may continue to rise into the atmosphere on the Arctic shelves in response to intense degradation of relict subsea permafrost. The release of formerly trapped gas, essentially methane, is linked to the permafrost evolution. Modeling of the permafrost at the West Yamal shelf allowed describing its evolution from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. During the previous work we detected extensive emissions of free gas into the water column at the boundary between today's shallow water permafrost and deeper water non-permafrost areas. These gas expulsions formed seismic and hydro-acoustic anomalies on the high-resolution seismic records. We supposed that in the water depths modeling results of relict permafrost distributions with these field data from the South Kara Sea. Modeling results suggest a highly-dynamic permafrost system that directly responds to even minor variations of lower and upper boundary conditions, e.g. heat flux from below and/or bottom water temperature changes from above. We present several scenarios of permafrost evolution and show that potentially minimal modern extent of the permafrost at the West Yamal shelf is limited by ~17 m isobaths, whereas maximal probable extent coincides with ~100 m isobaths. The model also predicts seaward tapering of relict permafrost with its maximal thickness 275-390 m near the shore line. We also present sensitivity analysis which define the wider range of modeling results depending on the changing input parameters (e.g. geothermal heat flux, bottom water temperature, porosity of the sediments). The model adapts well to corresponding field data, providing crucial information about the modern permafrost conditions, current location of the upper and lower permafrost boundaries and its possible impact on both the hydrosphere and

  7. Another Look at Climate Sensitivity

    CERN Document Server

    Zaliapin, Ilya

    2010-01-01

    We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such a response would imply irreducible uncertainty in climate change predictions and thus have notable implications for climate science and climate-related policy making. We show that equilibrium climate sensitivity in all generality does not support such an intrinsic indeterminacy; the latter appears only in essentially linear systems. The main flaw in the analysis that led to this claim is inappropriate linearization of an intrinsically nonlinear model; there is no room for physical interpretations or policy conclusions based on this mathematical error. Sensitive dependence nonetheless does exist in the climate system, as well as in climate models -- albeit in a very different sense from the one claimed in the linear work under scrutiny -- and we illustrate it using a classi...

  8. Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.; Levitus, S.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2014-01-01

    Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and

  9. Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO{sub 2} doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions

  10. A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2012-04-15

    Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

  11. Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO{sub 2} doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions

  12. Variation in ploidy level and phenology can result in large and unexpected differences in demography and climatic sensitivity between closely related ferns.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, de G.A.; Zuidema, P.A.; Groot, H.; During, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    • Premise of the study: Current environmental changes may affect the dynamics and viability of plant populations. This environmental sensitivity may differ between species of different ploidy level because polyploidization can influence life history traits. We compared the demography and climatic se

  13. Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, G. J.; Hamilton, K.; Zhu, W.

    2005-06-01

    A version of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled climate model is integrated under current climate conditions and in a series of experiments with climate forcings ranging from modest to very strong. The purpose of the experiments is to investigate the nature and behaviour of the climate feedback/sensitivity of the model, its evolution with time and climate state, the robustness of model parameterizations as forcing levels increase, and the possibility of a “runaway” warming under strong forcing. The model is integrated for 50 years, or to failure, after increasing the solar constant by 2.5, 10, 15, 25, 35, and 45% of its control value. The model successfully completes 50 years of integration for the 2.5, 10, 15, and 25% solar constant increases but fails for increases of 35% and 45%. The effective global climate sensitivity evolves with time and analysis indicates that a new equilibrium will be obtained for the 2.5, 10, and 15% cases but that runaway warming is underway for the 25% increase in solar constant. Feedback processes are analysed both locally and globally in terms of longwave and shortwave, clear-sky/surface, and cloud forcing components. Feedbacks in the system must be negative overall and of sufficient strength to balance the positive forcing if the system is to attain a new equilibrium. Longwave negative feedback processes strengthen in a reasonably linear fashion as temperature increases but shortwave feedback processes do not. In particular, solar cloud feedback becomes less negative and, for the 25% forcing case, eventually becomes positive, resulting in temperatures that “run away”. The conditions under which a runaway climate warming might occur have previously been investigated using simpler models. For sufficiently strong forcing, the greenhouse effect of increasing water vapour in a warmer atmosphere is expected to overwhelm the negative feedback of the longwave cooling to space as temperature increases. This is

  14. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroël-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel;

    2015-01-01

    , with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from...... disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change....

  15. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto; Pepke Pedersen, Jens Olaf

    2016-06-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8 Ma ago, a possible future warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5 K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming.

  16. Climate Sensitivity and Solar Cycle Response in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, M.; Lin, L.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate sensitivity, broadly defined, is a measure of the response of the climate system to the changes of external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and solar radiation, including climate feedback processes. General circulation models provide a means to quantitatively incorporate various feedback processes, such as water-vapor, cloud and albedo feedbacks. Less attention is devoted so far to the role of the oceans in significantly affecting these processes and hence the modelled transient climate sensitivity. Here we show that the oceanic mixing plays an important role in modifying the multi-decadal to centennial oscillations of the sea surface temperature, which in turn affect the derived climate sensitivity at various phases of the oscillations. The eleven-year solar cycle forcing is used to calibrate the response of the climate system. The GISS-EH coupled atmosphere-ocean model was run twice in coupled mode for more than 2000 model years, each with a different value for the ocean eddy mixing parameter. In both runs, there is a prominent low-frequency oscillation with a period of 300-500 years, and depending on the phase of such an oscillation, the derived climate gain factor varies by a factor of 2. The run with the value of the eddy ocean mixing parameter that is half that used in IPCC AR4 study has the more realistic low-frequency variability in SST and in the derived response to the known solar-cycle forcing.

  17. The Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Thermal Inertia

    CERN Document Server

    Royce, B S H

    2013-01-01

    The Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity has received much attention because of its relevance and importance for global warming policymaking. This paper focuses on the Earth's \\emph{thermal inertia time scale} which has received relatively little attention. The difference between the observed transient climate sensitivity and the equilibrium climate sensitivity is shown to be proportional to the thermal inertia time scale, and the numerical value of the proportionality factor is determined using recent observational data. Many useful policymaking insights can be extracted from the resulting empirical quantitative relation.

  18. Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Los, S. O.; Sellers, P. J.; Dazlich, D. A.; Tucker, C. J.; Randall, D. A.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi). Different scenarios using maximum and minimum vegetation cover were derived from satellite records spanning the period 1982-1990. Albedo decreased in the northern latitudes and increased in the tropics with increased ndvi. The increase in vegetation density revealed that the vegetation's physiological response was constrained by the limits of the available water resources. The difference between the maximum and minimum vegetation scenarios resulted in a 46% increase in absorbed visible solar radiation and a similar increase in gross photosynthetic C02 uptake on a global annual basis. This caused the canopy transpiration and interception fluxes to increase, and reduced those from the soil. The redistribution of the surface energy fluxes substantially reduced the Bowen ratio during the growing season, resulting in cooler and moister near-surface climate, except when soil moisture was limiting. Important effects of increased vegetation on climate are : (1) A cooling of about 1.8 K in the northern latitudes during the growing season and a slight warming during the winter, which is primarily due to the masking of high albedo of snow by a denser canopy. and (2) A year round cooling of 0.8 K in the tropics. These results suggest that increases in vegetation density could partially compensate for parallel increases in greenhouse warming . Increasing vegetation density globally caused both evapotranspiration and precipitation to increase. Evapotranspiration, however increased more than precipitation resulting in a global soil-water deficit of about 15 %. A spectral analysis on the simulated results showed that changes in the state of vegetation could affect the low

  19. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming:Climate Sensitivity Rise With Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto; Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleoce...

  20. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1{\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, bu...

  1. A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Ragone, Francesco; Lunkeit, Frank

    2014-01-01

    The sensitivity of the climate system to increasing CO2 concentration and the response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time scales. Conceptually, our results show that climate change assessment is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, our results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations, thus paving the way for red...

  2. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  3. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

  4. Metrics for palaeo climate sensitivity in the presence state-dependent feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Heydt, A. S.; Ashwin, P.

    2015-12-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity is one measure that is frequently used to predict long-term climate change in GCMs. Despite much research over the last decades, little progress has been made in constraining the uncertainty on climate sensitivity. One reason for this is the fact that the climate has a strong internal variability on many time scales, is subject to a non-stationary forcing and mostly out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Palaeo records of past climate variations can give insight into how the climate system responds to various forcings although care must be taken of the slow feedback processes at comparing palaeo climate sensitivity estimates with estimates from (short time scale) model simulations. In addition, for the late Pleistocene ice age cycles it has been shown from both proxy data and a conceptual climate model that climate sensitivity varies considerably between the cold and warm phases because the fast feedback processes change their relative strength over one cycle. Records of past CO2 and temperature together with 3D ice sheet model results extending back into the Pliocene suggest yet another value for the climate sensitivity in the warmer Pliocene. Here we use a conceptual model with known dynamics modelling the late Pleistocene ice ages to explore how climate sensitivity can be estimated from the model time series. Extracting the climate sensitivity from the relation between radiative forcing and global mean temperature leads to strongly state dependent behaviour and even negative values for climate sensitivity at rapid transitions into the deep glacial states. The degree to which the system is out of equilibrium and its relation to the equilibrium assumption of climate sensitivity needs therefore to be taken into account. Furthermore, Milankovitch forcing is generally not considered in palaeo climate sensitivity estimates. In the model time series we show how the sensitivity to Milankovitch forcing can be

  5. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Pleistocene climate oscillations imply a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 {\\pm} 1 {\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing for the average of climate states between the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the error estimate being large and partly subjective because of continuing uncertainty about LGM global surface climate. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we suggest that hysteresis and slow response in current ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding a strong increase in sensitivity when global temperature reaches early Cenozoic and higher levels, as increased water vapor eliminates the tropopause. It follows that...

  6. The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID) / CORDEX Southeast Asia Project and The Results of Its Sensitivity Experiments of RegCM4 Cumulus and Ocean Fluxes Parameterization Schemes on Temperature and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Cruz, Faye; Narisma, Gemma; Dado, Julie; Van, Tan-Phan; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Trinh-Tuan, Long; Nguyen-Xuan, Thanh; Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn; Singhruck, Patama; Gunawan, Dodo; Aldrian, Edvin

    2015-04-01

    The Southeast Asia (SEA) region is one of the more vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change because of the large population exposed to climate-related hazards, mostly living in countries with low adaptive capabilities. In order to adequately prepare and adapt to these future climate change impacts, it is therefore crucial for high-resolution climate projections to be available for this region. The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/CORDEX Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA) project aims to provide these projections through a collaborative effort in regional climate downscaling. As a first step, model simulations with the 4th version of Regional Climate Model system (RegCM4) developed by International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) were performed for the SEA domain (80°E-145°E; 15°S-40°N) at 36 km spatial resolution, to determine an optimal configuration of the model for the region. Using the ECMWF ERA Interim data as boundary condition, a total of 18 sensitivity experiments were done with different cumulus parameterization and ocean flux schemes for the period of 1989-2008. In this study, the model's performance in simulating mean temperature is evaluated against APHRODITE, a gridded observed temperature dataset. Initial results showed that RegCM4 tends to enhance the cold bias from the boundary forcing. There is also a consistent cold bias among all simulations over the Tibetan plateau and Indochina, especially during the boreal winter. Consequently, simulations had the smallest biases during boreal summer. The correlation of the model with the observed data is high over the northern half of the region, in contrast with the low correlation over the southern half, which may be due to uncertainties in the APHRODITE dataset over this region. Consistent with the spatial analysis, the analysis of the regional means indicates an overall better performance of the MIT Emanuel scheme, in terms of seasonality and spatial distribution. The

  7. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto;

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...... indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming....

  8. How does the sensitivity of climate affect stratospheric solar radiation management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, K.; Rowlands, D. J.; Ingram, W.; Keith, D.; Morgan, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    If implementation of proposals to engineer the climate through solar radiation management (SRM) ever occurs, it is likely to be contingent upon climate sensitivity. Despite this, no modeling studies have examined how the effectiveness of SRM forcings differs between the typical Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) with climate sensitivities close to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) mean and ones with high climate sensitivities. Here, we use a perturbed physics ensemble modeling experiment to examine variations in the response of climate to SRM under different climate sensitivities. When SRM is used as a substitute for mitigation its ability to maintain the current climate state gets worse with increased climate sensitivity and with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, our results also demonstrate that the potential of SRM to slow climate change, even at the regional level, grows with climate sensitivity. On average, SRM reduces regional rates of temperature change by more than 90 percent and rates of precipitation change by more than 50 percent in these higher sensitivity model configurations. To investigate how SRM might behave in models with high climate sensitivity that are also consistent with recent observed climate change we perform a "perturbed physics" ensemble (PPE) modelling experiment with the climateprediction.net (cpdn) version of the HadCM3L AOGCM. Like other perturbed physics climate modelling experiments, we simulate past and future climate scenarios using a wide range of model parameter combinations that both reproduce past climate within a specified level of accuracy and simulate future climates with a wide range of climate sensitivities. We chose 43 members ("model versions") from a subset of the 1,550 from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climateprediction.net project that have data that allow restarts. We use our results to explore how much assessments of SRM that use best

  9. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto;

    2016-01-01

    Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warmin...

  10. Climate change impacts are sensitive to the concentration stabilization path

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Analysis of policies to achieve the long-term objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid “dangerous” climate changes, must discriminate among the infinite number of emission and concentration trajectories that yield the same final concentration. Considerable attention has been devoted to path-dependent mitigation costs, generally for CO2 alone, but not to the differential climate change impacts implied by alternative trajectories. Here, we derive pathways leading to stabilization of equivalent CO2 concentration (including radiative forcing effects of all significant trace gases and aerosols) with a range of transient behavior before stabilization, including temporary overshoot of the final value. We compare resulting climate changes to the sensitivity of representative geophysical and ecological systems. Based on the limited available information, some physical and ecological systems appear to be quite sensitive to the details of the approach to stabilization. The likelihood of occurrence of impacts that might be considered dangerous increases under trajectories that delay emissions reduction or overshoot the final concentration. PMID:15545606

  11. Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thackeray, Stephen J.; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic...... groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing...... of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average)....

  12. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  13. Observation-based Estimate of Climate Sensitivity with a Scaling Climate Response Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    To properly adress the anthropogenic impacts upon the earth system, an estimate of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is essential. Observation-based estimates of climate sensitivity are often limited by their ability to take into account the slower response of the climate system imparted mainly by the large thermal inertia of oceans, they are nevertheless essential to provide an alternative to estimates from global circulation models and increase our confidence in estimates of climate sensitivity by the multiplicity of approaches. It is straightforward to calculate the Effective Climate Sensitivity(EffCS) as the ratio of temperature change to the change in radiative forcing; the result is almost identical to the Transient Climate Response(TCR), but it underestimates the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS). A study of global mean temperature is thus presented assuming a Scaling Climate Response Function to deterministic radiative forcing. This general form is justified as there exists a scaling symmetry respected by the dynamics, and boundary conditions, over a wide range of scales and it allows for long-range dependencies while retaining only 3 parameter which are estimated empirically. The range of memory is modulated by the scaling exponent H. We can calculate, analytically, a one-to-one relation between the scaling exponent H and the ratio of EffCS to TCR and EffCS to ECS. The scaling exponent of the power law is estimated by a regression of temperature as a function of forcing. We consider for the analysis 4 different datasets of historical global mean temperature and 100 scenario runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 distributed among the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios. We find that the error function for the estimate on historical temperature is very wide and thus, many scaling exponent can be used without meaningful changes in the fit residuals of historical temperatures; their response in the year 2100

  14. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate

  15. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  16. Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

    2016-08-11

    Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing

  17. Sensitivity of ring growth and carbon allocation to climatic variation vary within ponderosa pine trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M

    2012-01-01

    Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables

  18. Feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and the limits of linear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugenstein, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-12-01

    The term "feedback" is used ubiquitously in climate research, but implies varied meanings in different contexts. From a specific process that locally affects a quantity, to a formal framework that attempts to determine a global response to a forcing, researchers use this term to separate, simplify, and quantify parts of the complex Earth system. We combine large (>120 member) ensemble GCM and EMIC step forcing simulations over a broad range of forcing levels with a historical and educational perspective to organize existing ideas around feedbacks and linear forcing-feedback models. With a new method overcoming internal variability and initial condition problems we quantify the non-constancy of the climate feedback parameter. Our results suggest a strong state- and forcing-dependency of feedbacks, which is not considered appropriately in many studies. A non-constant feedback factor likely explains some of the differences in estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from different methods and types of data. We discuss implications for the definition of the forcing term and its various adjustments. Clarifying the value and applicability of the linear forcing feedback framework and a better quantification of feedbacks on various timescales and spatial scales remains a high priority in order to better understand past and predict future changes in the climate system.

  19. Sense in Sensitivity: Assessing Species Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Mcdougall, Amy

    2013-01-01

    This thesis investigates the impact of future climate change upon species vulnerability. Reports of shifts in species distributions are already numerous, but the pattern of change is not fully understood. This thesis looks to predict which species are likely to be most at risk under climate change and why? This thesis takes the equation; Vulnerability= Sensitivity + Exposure to better discover which species are most vulnerable to climate change. Additionally, this research explores how mitiga...

  20. Considerations for parameter optimization and sensitivity in climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Bracco, Annalisa; Luo, Hao; McWilliams, James C; Meyerson, Joyce E

    2010-12-14

    Climate models exhibit high sensitivity in some respects, such as for differences in predicted precipitation changes under global warming. Despite successful large-scale simulations, regional climatology features prove difficult to constrain toward observations, with challenges including high-dimensionality, computationally expensive simulations, and ambiguity in the choice of objective function. In an atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed sea surface temperature or coupled to a mixed-layer ocean, many climatic variables yield rms-error objective functions that vary smoothly through the feasible parameter range. This smoothness occurs despite nonlinearity strong enough to reverse the curvature of the objective function in some parameters, and to imply limitations on multimodel ensemble means as an estimator of global warming precipitation changes. Low-order polynomial fits to the model output spatial fields as a function of parameter (quadratic in model field, fourth-order in objective function) yield surprisingly successful metamodels for many quantities and facilitate a multiobjective optimization approach. Tradeoffs arise as optima for different variables occur at different parameter values, but with agreement in certain directions. Optima often occur at the limit of the feasible parameter range, identifying key parameterization aspects warranting attention--here the interaction of convection with free tropospheric water vapor. Analytic results for spatial fields of leading contributions to the optimization help to visualize tradeoffs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional error under minimization of global objective functions. The approach is sufficiently simple to guide parameter choices and to aid intercomparison of sensitivity properties among climate models.

  1. Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Fasullo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerous attempts have been made to constrain climate sensitivity with observations [1-10] (with [6] as LC09, [8] as SB11. While all of these attempts contain various caveats and sources of uncertainty, some efforts have been shown to contain major errors and are demonstrably incorrect. For example, multiple studies [11-13] separately addressed weaknesses in LC09 [6]. The work of Trenberth et al. [13], for instance, demonstrated a basic lack of robustness in the LC09 method that fundamentally undermined their results. Minor changes in that study’s subjective assumptions yielded major changes in its main conclusions. Moreover, Trenberth et al. [13] criticized the interpretation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO as an analogue for exploring the forced response of the climate system. In addition, as many cloud variations on monthly time scales result from internal atmospheric variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, cloud variability is not a deterministic response to surface temperatures. Nevertheless, many of the problems in LC09 [6] have been perpetuated, and Dessler [10] has pointed out similar issues with two more recent such attempts [7,8]. Here we briefly summarize more generally some of the pitfalls and issues involved in developing observational constraints on climate feedbacks. [...

  2. Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2011-01-01

    We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the

  3. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  4. The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-07-01

    Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario, there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.

  5. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

  6. Sensitivity of annual and seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration to principal climatic variables

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    G T Patle; D K Singh

    2015-06-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) represents the evaporative demand of the atmosphere and depends on climatic parameters such as radiation, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. Relative role of climatic parameter of ET0 varies from one climate to another and within the climate, and depends on the location and time. Sensitivity analysis was conducted and sensitivity coefficients were determined to evaluate the impact of principal climatic parameters on ET0 in Karnal district of India. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1981 to 2011 were estimated from FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation using the daily climate data collected from Central Soil Salinity Research Institute, Karnal. Results showed that seasonal and annual ET0 were most sensitive to maximum temperature followed by sunshine hours. However, wind speed, relative humidity, and minimum temperature had varying effect on mean ET0. After maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to wind speed followed by relative humidity and minimum temperature in summer. In monsoon, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to minimum temperature followed by relative humidity and wind speed. However, in winter, after maximum temperature and sunshine hours, ET0 was more sensitive to relative humidity followed by wind speed and minimum temperature. The study suggests that the climate variability would affect reference ET0; however, its impact on ET0 would be different for different parameters.

  7. A role of the variable sun in the Earth's climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andronova, N.

    2008-05-01

    Thirty years of satellite observations show that solar irradiance changes are of the order of a few tenths of a percent during 11-year solar cycles. Estimates made using a simple climate model indicate that such small changes in the Sun's luminosity are unlikely to significantly influence global temperature change. However, our earlier simulations of hemispheric-mean surface-air temperature changes since 1856 using our simple climate model showed that if the TSI varied before 1978 as has been reconstructed, the climate sensitivity is reduced by about 50 percent compared to the value required if there was no variation in solar forcing. Thus, there is a factor of two uncertainty in the value of climate sensitivity due to the uncertainty in solar forcing. In this paper we update our estimates of the climate sensitivity due to solar forcing and review results of similar estimations made by other researches.

  8. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  9. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  10. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.

    2014-10-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  11. Empirical Estimates of Global Climate Sensitivity: An Assessment of Strategies Using a Coupled GCM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Weijun; Kevin HAMILTON

    2008-01-01

    A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how well the actual realized global warming could be predicted just by analysis of the control results. This is a test, within a model context, of proposals that have been advanced to use knowledge of the present day climate to make "empirical" estimates of global climate sensitivity. The scaling of the top-of-the-atmosphere infrared flux and the planetary albedo as functions of surface temperature was inferred by examining four different temporal and geographical variations of the control simulations. Each of these inferences greatly overestimates the climate sensitivity of the model, largely because of the behavior of the cloud albedo. In each inference the control results suggest that cloudiness and albedo decrease with increasing surface temperature. However, the experiment with the increased solar constant actually has higher albedo and more cloudiness at most latitudes. The increased albedo is a strong negative feedback, and this helps account for the rather weak sensitivity of the climate in the NCAR model. To the extent that these model results apply to the real world, they suggest empirical evaluation of the scaling of global-mean radiative properties with surface temperature in the present day climate provides little useful guidance for estimates of the actual climate sensitivity to global changes.

  12. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  13. A geohydrologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Safeeq

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most assessments of the impacts of a changing climate to streamflow make use of downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs. Projected climate simulations from these GCMs are often too coarse for planning purposes, as they do not capture smaller scale topographic controls and other important watershed processes. This uncertainty is further amplified when downscaled climate predictions are coupled to macroscale hydrologic models that fail to capture streamflow contributions from deep groundwater. Deep aquifers play an important role in mediating streamflow response to climate change, and groundwater needs to be explicitly incorporated into sensitivity assessments. Here we develop and apply an analytical framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to a change in the timing and magnitude of recharge in a spatially-explicit fashion. Two patterns emerge from this analysis: first, areas with high streamflow sensitivity also have higher summer streamflows as compared to low sensitivity areas. Second, the level of sensitivity and spatial extent of highly sensitive areas diminishes over time as the summer progresses. Results of this analysis point to a robust, practical, and scalable approach that can help assess risk at the landscape scale, complement the downscaling approach, be applied to any climate scenario of interest, and provide a framework to assist land and water managers adapt to an uncertain and potentially challenging future.

  14. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  15. Hydroelectric Optimized System Sensitivity to Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, J. C.; Howard, C. D.

    2009-12-01

    This paper compares the response of a large hydro system, globally optimized for daily operations, under a range of reservoir system inflows. The modeled system consists of Projects and hydro operating constraints on the South Saskatchewan River, Lake Winnipeg, Southern Indian Lake, Churchill Diversion, Red River, Winnipeg River, and the Nelson River. The river system is continental in scale, stretching from the Rocky Mountains to Hudson Bay. The hydro storage is large enough to operate with a two year cycle, which includes freezeup conditions. The objective is to maximize seasonal value of energy generation over a two year time horizon. Linear and quadratic constraints represent reservoir stage-storage curves, tailwater stage-discharge curves, transient river routing, and seasonally dependent environmental constraints on operations. This paper describes the optimization modeling approaches used to represent an actual physical system and to accommodate uncertainties in the historical datasets used for calibration. The results are hypothetical, not a forecast.

  16. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  17. Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

  18. Glaciological and hydrological sensitivities to climate change in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, J. M.; Immerzeel, W.

    2014-12-01

    The impact of climate change on glaciers will affect the timing and magnitude of water availability from high-altitude catchments in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. In this study, we quantify the current sensitivity of glacier systems to climatic change and the associated sub-basin hydrological sensitivity throughout the HKH region using glacier inventory data and high-resolution dynamically downscaled climate fields. We first estimate the glaciological sensitivity, or change in glacierized area with change in equilibrium line altitude (ELA), for each sub-basin using a glacier inventory and SRTM DEM. We assign a climatic sensitivity of the ELA to temperature changes (dELA/dT) based on published values for tropical and sub-tropical glaciers and a high-resolution annual precipitation field. To assess the change in glacier meltwater contribution as a result of warming, we first estimate baseline glacier meltwater contributions using a mass balance gradient and estimated current ELA. Future climate warming scenarios of +1K and +2K are then used to examine the change in glacier meltwater contributions based on the increased ELA and ablation area. Finally, we calculate a glacier significance index that examines the relative importance of melt within each sub-basin, and discuss regional variations in glacier sensitivity and significance.

  19. Foliar temperature acclimation reduces simulated carbon sensitivity to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Nicholas G.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Shevliakova, Elena; Kattge, Jens; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

    2016-04-01

    Plant photosynthesis and respiration are the largest carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, and their parameterizations represent large sources of uncertainty in projections of land carbon uptake in Earth system models (ESMs). The incorporation of temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and foliar respiration, commonly observed processes, into ESMs has been proposed as a way to reduce this uncertainty. Here we show that, across 15 flux tower sites spanning multiple biomes at various locations worldwide (10° S-67° N), acclimation parameterizations improve a model's ability to reproduce observed net ecosystem exchange of CO2. This improvement is most notable in tropical biomes, where photosynthetic acclimation increased model performance by 36%. The consequences of acclimation for simulated terrestrial carbon uptake depend on the process, region and time period evaluated. Globally, including acclimation has a net effect of increasing carbon assimilation and storage, an effect that diminishes with time, but persists well into the future. Our results suggest that land models omitting foliar temperature acclimation are likely to overestimate the temperature sensitivity of terrestrial carbon exchange, thus biasing projections of future carbon storage and estimates of policy indicators such as the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions.

  20. Study on the Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Wheat to Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Fang; YANG Xiu; LIN Er-da; JU Hui; XIONG Wei

    2005-01-01

    Based on B2 climate change scenario produced by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), which was developed by the UK Hadley Center, and the wheat yield data outputted by CERES-wheat model, the sensitivity and vulnerability of wheat production to the future climate change in China were studied through analyzing the yield variation using the GIS (geographical information system) techniques. Results showed that, by the 2070s, there will be three negative sensitive areas of rain-fed wheat, i.e., northeastern China, the region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and part of the Loess Plateau. Irrigated wheat is generally sensitive to the future climate change for most areas of China, with a lower sensitive degree and a distribution of sensitive areas similar to the rain-fed wheat. For the irrigated wheat, northeast and northwest of China are strongly negative sensitive, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the coastal areas of southern China and the southwest of China, are moderately negative sensitive to the climate change. With the appropriate adaptation to the climate change, the rain-fed wheat in most regions of China will not be vulnerable and even has a yield increase, while the irrigated wheat will still have a larger vulnerable area (occupying about 2/3 of its total area in China), with the highly vulnerable regions distributed in northeastern China and northwestern China, and the medium and light vulnerable areas distributed along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Yunnan and Guizhou provinces.

  1. Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qingfeng; Chen, Xinping; Lobell, David B.; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Yi; Yang, Haishun; Zhang, Fusuo

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that modern, longer-maturing varieties have extended the growing period by an average of 8 days and have significantly offset the negative impacts of climate change on yield. However, the sensitivity of maize production to water has increased: maize yield across the CMB was 5% lower with rainfed than with irrigated maize in the 1980s and was 10% lower (and even >20% lower in some areas) in the 2000s because of both warming and the increased requirement for water by the longer-maturing varieties. Of the maize area in China, 40% now fails to receive the precipitation required to attain the full yield potential. Opportunities for water saving in maize systems exist, but water scarcity in China remains a serious problem.

  2. Sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to cloud changes in warm climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2016-04-01

    Climates of the deep past have posed the longstanding challenge to understand which mechanisms maintained very warm climates. Warm climates have been hard to simulate without very high CO2 concentrations compared to estimates from proxy data. Large climate sensitivity implies a route to warm temperatures without very high concentrations of CO2. In at least one model cloud feedbacks play a central role in increasing climate sensitivity with temperature. However, it is hard to evaluate cloud feedbacks using proxies. On the other hand, there are proxies that provide information about the hydrologic cycle for example through estimating aridity and isotope analysis of leaf wax. Cloud feedbacks could influence the hydrologic cycle through a change in the shortwave radiative flux at the surface that causes a change in latent heat flux and thereby a change in precipitation. We study the impact of clouds in a general circulation model for a broad range of temperatures. One set of simulations with variable clouds is compared to a set of simulations where clouds are represented by a climatology. Our aim to provide a constraint for cloud feedbacks based on hydrology proves elusive. Precipitation change with temperature is very similar regardless of cloud treatment and there is no saturation effect in precipitation as seen in idealized models. However, there is a large change in shortwave absorption by atmospheric water vapor. Our results indicate that the hydrologic cycle is not sensitive to cloud representation in Eocene-like climates but correct representation of shortwave absorption is essential.

  3. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, paraglaciation and climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    harrison, stephan

    2014-05-01

    Most mountain glaciers have been receding from their late historic positions during the last century and the rate of recession has increased over the past decades largely as a consequence of global warming. Because glaciers are coupled to their slope and valley-floor geomorphic systems, recession impacts upon these in a number of complex ways, producing a range of natural hazards that have severe impacts on downstream communities and infrastructure. The most important of these are glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Here, GLOFs are discussed in the context of paraglaciation and the concept of climate sensitivity. We use these ideas to assess three things: the geomorphological implications of current and future glacier recession; GLOFs and climate change attribution; paraglaciation as a guide to the future

  4. On the state dependency of fast feedback processes in (palaeo) climate sensitivity

    CERN Document Server

    von der Heydt, Anna S; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Dijkstra, Henk A

    2014-01-01

    The equilibrium (Charney) climate sensitivity is the equilibrium change in Earth's global mean surface temperature due to a radiative forcing associated with a doubling of the atmospheric CO$_2$ concentration. Palaeo data have been frequently used to determine this value, and - if slow feedback processes (e.g. land-ice albedo) are adequately taken into account - they indicate a similar range as estimates based on climate model results. In most studies it is implicitly assumed that the (fast) feedback processes are independent of the background climate state, e.g., are equally strong during warm and cold periods. Here we assess the dependency of the fast feedback processes on the background climate state using data of the last 800 kyr and a conceptual climate model for interpretation. By applying a new method which explicitly considers the background climate state we calculate a specific climate sensitivity of 0.59-1.15 K(Wm$^{-2}$)$^{-1}$ corresponding to a warming of 2.2 to 4.3 K for a CO$_2$ doubling at a 6...

  5. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Johannes A; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2015-12-21

    Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics.

  6. Sensitivity analysis of a forest gap model concerning current and future climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lasch, P.; Suckow, F.; Buerger, G.; Lindner, M.

    1998-07-01

    The ability of a forest gap model to simulate the effects of climate variability and extreme events depends on the temporal resolution of the weather data that are used and the internal processing of these data for growth, regeneration and mortality. The climatological driving forces of most current gap models are based on monthly means of weather data and their standard deviations, and long-term monthly means are used for calculating yearly aggregated response functions for ecological processes. In this study, the results of sensitivity analyses using the forest gap model FORSKA{sub -}P and involving climate data of different resolutions, from long-term monthly means to daily time series, including extreme events, are presented for the current climate and for a climate change scenario. The model was applied at two sites with differing soil conditions in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The sensitivity of the model concerning climate variations and different climate input resolutions is analysed and evaluated. The climate variability used for the model investigations affected the behaviour of the model substantially. (orig.)

  7. Chaotic Attractor Crisis and Climate Sensitivity: a Transfer Operator Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tantet, A.; Lucarini, V.; Lunkeit, F.; Dijkstra, H. A.

    2015-12-01

    The rough response to a smooth parameter change of some non-chaotic climate models, such as the warm to snowball-Earth transition in energy balance models due to the ice-albedo feedback, can be studied in the framework of bifurcation theory, in particular by analysing the Lyapunov spectrum of fixed points or periodic orbits. However, bifurcation theory is of little help to study the destruction of a chaotic attractor which can occur in high-dimensional General Circulation Models (GCM). Yet, one would expect critical slowing down to occur before the crisis, since, as the system becomes susceptible to the physical instability mechanism responsible for the crisis, it turns out to be less and less resilient to exogenous perturbations and to spontaneous fluctuations due to other types of instabilities on the attractor. The statistical physics framework, extended to nonequilibrium systems, is particularly well suited for the study of global properties of chaotic and stochastic systems. In particular, the semigroup of transfer operators governs the evolution of distributions in phase space and its spectrum characterises both the relaxation rate of distributions to a statistical steady-state and the stability of this steady-state to perturbations. If critical slowing down indeed occurs in the approach to an attractor crisis, the gap in the spectrum of the semigroup of transfer operators is expected to shrink. We show that the chaotic attractor crisis due to the ice-albedo feedback and resulting in a transition from a warm to a snowball-Earth in the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), a GCM of intermediate complexity, is associated with critical slowing down, as observed by the slower decay of correlations before the crisis (cf. left panel). In addition, we demonstrate that this critical slowing down can be traced back to the shrinkage of the gap between the leading eigenvalues of coarse-grained approximations of the transfer operators and that these eigenvalues capture the

  8. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III; Oglesby, R.J.

    1991-10-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. As one index of the magnitude of past climates change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide doubling. Simulating the climate changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the NCAR CCMO (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0), after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our comparisons have shown both some of the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The research so far has shown the feasibility of our methods for comparing paleoclimatic data and model results. Our research has also shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1991, we have continued our studies and this Progress Report documents the results to date. During this year, we have completed new modeling experiments, compiled new data sets, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling. 37 refs.

  9. R package climwin : climwin: Climate Window Analysis. Contains functions to detect and visualise periods of climate sensitivity (climate windows) for a given biological response.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, Liam; Van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Contains a number of functions used to detect a period of climate sensitivity (climate window) for a given biological response, and visualise the detected climate window. The functions provided in climwin allow users to select meaningful time periods over which to investigate the impacts of climate,

  10. An improved dust emission model with insights into the global dust cycle's climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, J. F.; Mahowald, N. M.; Albani, S.; Fratini, G.; Gillies, J. A.; Ishizuka, M.; Leys, J. F.; Mikami, M.; Park, M.-S.; Park, S.-U.; Van Pelt, R. S.; Ward, D. S.; Zobeck, T. M.

    2014-03-01

    Simulations of the global dust cycle and its interactions with a changing Earth system are hindered by the empirical nature of dust emission parameterizations in climate models. Here we take a step towards improving global dust cycle simulations by presenting a physically-based dust emission model. The resulting dust flux parameterization depends only on the wind friction speed and the soil's threshold friction speed, and can therefore be readily implemented into climate models. We show that our parameterization's functional form is supported by a compilation of quality-controlled vertical dust flux measurements, and that it better reproduces these measurements than existing parameterizations. Both our theory and measurements indicate that many climate models underestimate the dust flux's sensitivity to soil erodibility. This finding can explain why dust cycle simulations in many models are improved by using an empirical preferential sources function that shifts dust emissions towards the most erodible regions. In fact, implementing our parameterization in a climate model produces even better agreement against aerosol optical depth measurements than simulations that use such a source function. These results indicate that the need to use a source function is at least partially eliminated by the additional physics accounted for by our parameterization. Since soil erodibility is affected by climate changes, our results further suggest that many models have underestimated the climate sensitivity of the global dust cycle.

  11. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Climate Change Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2012-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) and multiple global model responses by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with a medium-high emissions scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within the NCEP reanalysis R2. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes six different RCMs that have been used in various intercomparison programs in Europe and the United States. Four different AOGCMs provide boundary conditions to drive the RCMS for 30 years in the current climate and 30 years for the mid 21st century. The resulting climate model simulations form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts and adaptation assessments over North America. All 12 sets of current and future simulations have been completed. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple simulations are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this overview talk, results from the various climate change experiments for various subregions, along with measures of uncertainty, will be presented

  12. Hydrologic sensitivity of Indian sub-continental river basins to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Vimal; Lilhare, Rajtantra

    2016-04-01

    Climate change may pose profound implications for hydrologic processes in Indian sub-continental river basins. Using downscaled and bias corrected future climate projections and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we show that a majority of the Indian sub-continental river basins are projected to shift towards warmer and wetter climate in the future. During the monsoon (June to September) season, under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (8.5), the ensemble mean air temperature is projected to increase by more than 0.5 (0.8), 1.0 (2.0), and 1.5 (3.5) °C in the Near (2010-2039), Mid (2040-2069), and End (2070-2099) term climate, respectively. Moreover, the sub-continental river basins may face an increase of 3-5 °C in the post-monsoon season under the projected future climate. While there is a large intermodel uncertainty, robust increases in precipitation are projected in many sub-continental river basins under the projected future climate especially in the Mid and End term climate. A sensitivity analysis for the Ganges and Godavari river basins shows that surface runoff is more sensitive to change in precipitation and temperature than that of evapotranspiration (ET). An intensification of the hydrologic cycle in the Indian sub-continental basins is evident in the projected future climate. For instance, for Mid and End term climate, ET is projected to increase up to 10% for the majority of the river basins under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the monsoon season, ensemble mean surface runoff is projected to increase more than 40% in 11 (15) basins under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Moreover, streamflow is projected to increase more than 40% in 8 (9) basins during the monsoon season under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Results show that water availability in the sub-continental river basins is more sensitive towards changes in the monsoon season precipitation rather than air temperature. While in the majority

  13. Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xun; Yee, Jeng-Hwa; Cai, Ming; Swartz, William H.; Coy, Lawrence; Aquila, Valentina; Talaat, Elsayed R.

    2014-01-01

    We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.

  14. Taxonomic and trophic-level differences in the climate sensitivity of seasonal events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Høye, T. T.; Thackeray, S.; Henrys, P. A.; Hemming, D.; Bell, J. R.; Botham, M. S.; Burthe, S.; Helaouet, P.; Johns, D.; Jones, I. D.; Leech, D. I.; Mackay, E. B.; Massimino, D.; Atkinson, S.; Bacon, P. J.; Brereton, T. M.; Carvalho, L.; Clutton-Brock, T. H.; Duck, C.; Edwards, M.; Elliott, J. M.; Hall, S.; Harrington, R.; Pearce-Higgins, J. W.; Kruuk, L. E.; Pemberton, J. M.; Sparks, T. H.; Thompson, P. M.; White, I.; Winfield, I. J.; Wanless, S.

    2015-12-01

    Among-species differences in phenological responses to climate change are of sufficient magnitude to desynchronise key ecological interactions, threatening ecosystem function and services. To assess these threats, it is vital to quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here we apply a novel Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, quantifying among-species variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms sharing taxonomic affinities or trophic position. Despite this, we detected a systematic difference in the direction and magnitude, but not seasonal timing, of phenological climate sensitivity among trophic levels. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups and are projected to lag behind phenological changes at lower trophic levels, potentially making them at higher risk of disconnection with seasonal resources.

  15. State-dependence of climate sensitivity: attractor constraints and palaeoclimate regimes

    CERN Document Server

    von der Heydt, Anna S

    2016-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity is a frequently used measure to predict long-term climate change. However, both climate models and observational data suggest a rather large uncertainty on climate sensitivity (CS). The reasons for this include: the climate has a strong internal variability on many time scales, it is subject to a non-stationary forcing and it is, on many timescales, out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Palaeo records of past climate variations give insight into how the climate system responds to various forcings although care must be taken of the slow feedback processes before comparing palaeo CS estimates with model estimates. In addition, the fast feedback processes can change their relative strength and time scales over time. Consequently, another reason for the large uncertainty on palaeo climate sensitivity may be the fact that it is strongly state-dependent. Using a conceptual climate model, we explore how CS can be estimated from unperturbed and perturbed model t...

  16. Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchen, Zoe A; Gorelick, Root

    2017-03-01

    The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species' phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km(2) area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species' phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology-climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late-summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could

  17. A sensitivity analysis of hazardous waste disposal site climatic and soil design parameters using HELP3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adelman, D.D. [Water Resources Engineer, Lincoln, NE (United States); Stansbury, J. [Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Omaha, NE (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, And Liability Act (CERCLA), and subsequent amendments have formed a comprehensive framework to deal with hazardous wastes on the national level. Key to this waste management is guidance on design (e.g., cover and bottom leachate control systems) of hazardous waste landfills. The objective of this research was to investigate the sensitivity of leachate volume at hazardous waste disposal sites to climatic, soil cover, and vegetative cover (Leaf Area Index) conditions. The computer model HELP3 which has the capability to simulate double bottom liner systems as called for in hazardous waste disposal sites was used in the analysis. HELP3 was used to model 54 combinations of climatic conditions, disposal site soil surface curve numbers, and leaf area index values to investigate how sensitive disposal site leachate volume was to these three variables. Results showed that leachate volume from the bottom double liner system was not sensitive to these parameters. However, the cover liner system leachate volume was quite sensitive to climatic conditions and less sensitive to Leaf Area Index and curve number values. Since humid locations had considerably more cover liner system leachate volume than and locations, different design standards may be appropriate for humid conditions than for and conditions.

  18. A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Lopez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The current study focuses on the development of a regional framework to evaluate hydrologic and sediment sensitivity due to predicted future climate variability using developed archetypal watersheds. The developed archetypes are quasi-synthetic watersheds that integrate observed regional physiographic features (i.e., geomorphology, land cover patterns, etc. with synthetic derivation of basin and reach networks. Each of the three regional archetypes (urban, vegetated and mixed land covers simulates satisfactory hydrologic and sediment behavior compared to historical observations (flow and sediment prior to the climate sensitivity analysis. Climate scenarios considered increasing temperature estimated from the IPCC and precipitation variability based on historical observations and expectations. Archetypal watersheds are modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran model (EPA HSPF and relative changes to streamflow and sediment flux are evaluated. Results indicate that the variability and extent of vegetation play a key role in watershed sensitivity to predicted climate change. Temperature increase alone causes a decrease in annual flow and an increase in sediment flux within the vegetated archetypal watershed only, and these effects are partially mitigated by the presence of impervious surfaces within the urban and mixed archetypal watersheds. Depending on extent of precipitation variability, urban and moderately urban systems can expect the largest alteration to flow regimes where high flow events are expected to become more frequent. As a result, enhanced wash-off of suspended-sediments from available pervious surfaces is expected.

  19. Thermal tolerance and climate warming sensitivity in tropical snails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, David J; Rezende, Enrico L; Baharuddin, Nursalwa; Choi, Francis; Helmuth, Brian

    2015-12-01

    Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their thermal tolerance limits generally lie close to current maximum air temperatures. This prediction derives primarily from studies on insects and lizards and remains untested for other taxa with contrasting ecologies. We studied the HCT (heat coma temperatures) and ULT (upper lethal temperatures) of 40 species of tropical eulittoral snails (Littorinidae and Neritidae) inhabiting exposed rocky shores and shaded mangrove forests in Oceania, Africa, Asia and North America. We also estimated extremes in animal body temperature at each site using a simple heat budget model and historical (20 years) air temperature and solar radiation data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that HCT and ULT exhibit limited adaptive variation across habitats (mangroves vs. rocky shores) or geographic locations despite their contrasting thermal regimes. Instead, the elevated heat tolerance of these species (HCT = 44.5 ± 1.8°C and ULT = 52.1 ± 2.2°C) seems to reflect the extreme temperature variability of intertidal systems. Sensitivity to climate warming, which was quantified as the difference between HCT or ULT and maximum body temperature, differed greatly between snails from sunny (rocky shore; Thermal Safety Margin, TSM = -14.8 ± 3.3°C and -6.2 ± 4.4°C for HCT and ULT, respectively) and shaded (mangrove) habitats (TSM = 5.1 ± 3.6°C and 12.5 ± 3.6°C). Negative TSMs in rocky shore animals suggest that mortality is likely ameliorated during extreme climatic events by behavioral thermoregulation. Given the low variability in heat tolerance across species, habitat and geographic location account for most of the variation in TSM and may adequately predict the vulnerability to climate change. These findings caution against generalizations on the impact of global warming across ectothermic taxa and highlight how the consideration of nonmodel animals, ecological transitions

  20. Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Crossman

    2014-07-01

    increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

  1. Complex interactions between climate change and toxicants: evidence that temperature variability increases sensitivity to cadmium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimberly, David A; Salice, Christopher J

    2014-07-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that global climate change will have significant impacts on environmental conditions including potential effects on sensitivity of organisms to environmental contaminants. The objective of this study was to test the climate-induced toxicant sensitivity (CITS) hypothesis in which acclimation to altered climate parameters increases toxicant sensitivity. Adult Physa pomilia snails were acclimated to a near optimal 22 °C or a high-normal 28 °C for 28 days. After 28 days, snails from each temperature group were challenged with either low (150 μg/L) or high (300 μg/L) cadmium at each temperature (28 or 22 °C). In contrast to the CITS hypothesis, we found that acclimation temperature did not have a strong influence on cadmium sensitivity except at the high cadmium test concentration where snails acclimated to 28 °C were more cadmium tolerant. However, snails that experienced a switch in temperature for the cadmium challenge, regardless of the switch direction, were the most sensitive to cadmium. Within the snails that were switched between temperatures, snails acclimated at 28 °C and then exposed to high cadmium at 22 °C exhibited significantly greater mortality than those snails acclimated to 22 °C and then exposed to cadmium at 28 °C. Our results point to the importance of temperature variability in increasing toxicant sensitivity but also suggest a potentially complex cost of temperature acclimation. Broadly, the type of temporal stressor exposures we simulated may reduce overall plasticity in responses to stress ultimately rendering populations more vulnerable to adverse effects.

  2. Climate Sensitivity of the Last Glacial Maximum from Paleoclimate Simulations and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Brady, E.; Kothavala, Z.

    2004-12-01

    Global coupled climate models run for future scenarios of increasing atmospheric CO2 give a range of response of the global average surface temperature. Regional responses, including the North Atlantic overturning circulation and tropical Pacific ENSO, also vary significantly among models. The second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) is coordinating simulations and data syntheses for the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years before present) to allow another assessment of climate sensitivity. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have been estimated using measurements from ice cores to be 185 ppmv, approximately 50% of present-day values. Global, annual mean surface temperature simulated by the slab ocean version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) shows a cooling of -2.8°C for LGM CO2 levels and a warming of 2.5°C for a doubling of CO2. Slab and coupled CCSM3 simulations that include the reductions of the other atmospheric trace gases and the large ice sheets covering North America and Eurasia at LGM give cooling in agreement with proxy inferences and indicate that LGM CO2 explains about half of the global cooling at LGM. Regional signatures of the climate system to changed LGM forcing are also an important measure of climate sensitivity and results from the fully coupled version of CCSM3 will be shown.

  3. 32 questions concerning climate change (results of a questionnaire)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auer, I.; Boehm, R. [Central Inst. for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna (Austria); Steinacker, R. [Vienna Univ. (Austria).Inst. for Meteorology and Geophysics

    1995-12-31

    The intention of the inquiry was to investigate the opinion within the scientific community about climate change questions that are believed to be already well solved in the public opinion. 32 questions were formulated that deal with 12 main assumptions about the existence, the predictability and the impacts of climate changes due to an artificially enhanced greenhouse effect. The possibilities to answer reached from `sure yes`, over `guess yes`, `not answerable or no opinion` to `guess no` and `sure no`. There were additional questions about the way the answers were gained: `by own research`, `by studying scientific literature or discussion with colleagues` and `by mass media consumption`. In the following some of the key assumptions about climate change topics will be discussed as the predictability of future evolution of climate by climate models and the detectability of an artificially enhanced greenhouse effect in climate time series. The other assumptions can be shown here only in the form of a comprehensive overview. In a very comprehensive form the results of the inquiry could be described in the following: A weak majority of climatologists believe today`s climate models to be able to describe a greenhouse gas induced climate change in global scale - much less in regional scale and not in local scale. A majority of climatologists believe an anthropogenic greenhouse gas forced climate and its impacts to be developing in the future but not already at present. The shape of the opinion spectra is in most cases far from that of a scientifically solved problem - a lot of work still has to be done

  4. Sensitivity of ecosystem models to the spatial resolution of the NCAR Community Climate Model CCM2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciret, C. [Macquarie Univ., Sydney (Australia). Climate Impacts Centre; Henderson-Sellers, A. [Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia)

    1998-06-01

    This study evaluates the sensitivity of ecosystem models to changes in the horizontal resolution of version 2 of the national centre for atmospheric research community climate model (CCM2). A previous study has shown that the distributions of natural ecosystems predicted by vegetation models using coarse resolution present-day climate simulations are poorly simulated. It is usually assumed that increasing the spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) will improve the simulation of climate, and hence will increase our level of confidence in the use of GCM output for impacts studies. The principal goals of this study is to investigate this hypothesis and to identify which biomes are more affected by the changes in spatial resolution of the forcing climate. The ecosystem models used are the BIOME-1 model and a version of the Holdridge scheme. The climate simulations come from a set of experiments in which CCM2 was run with increasing horizontal resolutions. The biome distributions predicted using CCM2 climates are compared against biome distributions predicted using observed climate datasets. Results show that increasing the resolution of CCM2 produces a significant improvement of the global-scale vegetation prediction, indicating that a higher level of confidence can be vested in the global-scale prediction of natural ecosystems using medium and high resolution GCMs. However, not all biomes are equally affected by the increased spatial resolution, and although certain biome distributions are improved (e.g. hot desert, tropical seasonal forest), others remain globally poorly predicted even at high resolution (e.g. grasses and xerophytic woods). In addition, these results show that some climatic biases are enhanced with increasing resolution (e.g. in mountain ranges), resulting in the inadequate prediction of biomes. (orig.) With 16 figs., 5 tabs., 37 refs.

  5. Sensitivity of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Reanalysis Choice and Implications for Regional Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzanas, R., Sr.; Brands, S.; San Martin, D., Sr.; Gutiérrez, J. M., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    This work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested -under a cross-validation scheme- separately for two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) for the period 1981-2000. When the observed and downscaled time-series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a Global Climate Model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to "delta-change" estimates differing by up to a 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is shown to importantly contribute to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections, and, consequently, should be treated with equal care as other, well-known, sources of uncertainty -e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method.- Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the Model Output Statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.

  6. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  7. Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Yoshida, Kohei; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2016-08-01

    Accumulations of global proxy data are essential steps for improving reliability of climate model simulations for the Pliocene warming climate. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2), a part project of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4, boundary forcing data have been updated from the PlioMIP phase 1 due to recent advances in understanding of oceanic, terrestrial and cryospheric aspects of the Pliocene palaeoenvironment. In this study, sensitivities of Pliocene climate simulations to the newly archived boundary conditions are evaluated by a set of simulations using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model, MRI-CGCM2.3. The simulated Pliocene climate is warmer than pre-industrial conditions for 2.4 °C in global mean, corresponding to 0.6 °C warmer than the PlioMIP1 simulation by the identical climate model. Revised orography, lakes, and shrunk ice sheets compared with the PlioMIP1 lead to local and remote influences including snow and sea ice albedo feedback, and poleward heat transport due to the atmosphere and ocean that result in additional warming over middle and high latitudes. The amplified higher-latitude warming is supported qualitatively by the proxy evidences, but is still underestimated quantitatively. Physical processes responsible for the global and regional climate changes should be further addressed in future studies under systematic intermodel and data-model comparison frameworks.

  8. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  9. Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Ramey, Holly S.; Roberts, Jason B.

    2011-01-01

    maintenance on these time scales. However, water vapor and hydrologic scaling relationships for this mode of variability cast doubt on the utility of ISO variations as proxies for climate sensitivity response to external radiatively forced (e.g. greenhouse gas-induced) climate change.

  10. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the retrieved essential climate variables from remotely sensed observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djepa, Vera; Badii, Atta

    2016-04-01

    The sensitivity of weather and climate system to sea ice thickness (SIT), Sea Ice Draft (SID) and Snow Depth (SD) in the Arctic is recognized from various studies. Decrease in SIT will affect atmospheric circulation, temperature, precipitation and wind speed in the Arctic and beyond. Ice thermodynamics and dynamic properties depend strongly on sea Ice Density (ID) and SD. SIT, SID, ID and SD are sensitive to environmental changes in the Polar region and impact the climate system. For accurate forecast of climate change, sea ice mass balance, ocean circulation and sea- atmosphere interactions it is required to have long term records of SIT, SID, SD and ID with errors and uncertainty analyses. The SID, SIT, ID and freeboard (F) have been retrieved from Radar Altimeter (RA) (on board ENVISAT) and IceBridge Laser Altimeter (LA) and validated, using over 10 years -collocated observations of SID and SD in the Arctic, provided from the European Space Agency (ESA CCI sea ice ECV project). Improved algorithms to retrieve SIT from LA and RA have been derived, applying statistical analysis. The snow depth is obtained from AMSR-E/Aqua and NASA IceBridge Snow Depth radar. The sea ice properties of pancake ice have been retrieved from ENVISAT/Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR). The uncertainties of the retrieved climate variables have been analysed and the impact of snow depth and sea ice density on retrieved SIT has been estimated. The sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of uncertainties of input climate variables (ID and SD) on accuracy of the retrieved output variables (SIT and SID). The developed methodology of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is essential for assessment of the impact of environmental variables on climate change and better understanding of the relationship between input and output variables. The uncertainty analysis quantifies the uncertainties of the model results and the sensitivity analysis evaluates the contribution of each input variable to

  11. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  12. River Runoff Sensitivity in Eastern Siberia to Global Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kashutina, E.

    2008-12-01

    During several last decades significant climate warming is observed in permafrost regions of Eastern Siberia. These changes include rise of air temperature as well as precipitation. Changes in regional climate are accompanied with river runoff changes. The analysis of the data shows that in the past 25 years, the largest contribution to the annual river runoff increase in the lower reaches of the Lena (Kyusyur) is made (in descending order) by the Lena river watershed (above Tabaga), the Aldan river (Okhotsky Perevoz), and the Vilyui river (Khatyryk-Khomo). The similar relation is also retained in the case of flood, with the seasonal river runoff of the Vilyui river being slightly decreased. Completely different relations are noted in winter, when a substantial river runoff increase is recorded in the lower reaches of the Lena river. In this case the major contribution to the winter river runoff increase in the Lena outlet is made by the winter river runoff increase on the Vilyui river. Unlike the above cases, the summer-fall river runoff in the lower reaches of the Lena river tends to decrease, which is similar to the trend exhibited by the Vilyui river. At the same time, the river runoff of the Lena (Tabaga) and Aldan (Verkhoyansky Perevoz) rivers increase. According to the results of hydrological modeling the expected anthropogenic climate warming in XXI century can bring more significant river runoff increase in the Lena river basin as compared with the recent one. Hydrological responses to climate warming have been evaluated for the plain part of the Lena river basin basing on a macroscale hydrological model featuring simplified description of processes developed in Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Two atmosphere-ocean global circulation models included in the IPCC (ECHAM4/OPY3 and GFDL-R30) were used as scenarios of future global climate. According to the results of hydrological modeling the expected anthropogenic climate warming in

  13. Reference evapotranspiration change and its sensitivity to climate variables in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tiegang; Li, Longguo; Lai, Jianbin; Liu, Chao; Zhuang, Wenhua

    2016-08-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is the key factor for hydrologic water balance, irrigation scheduling, and water resources planning. Based on Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith method and the climate variables of 57 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2010 in southwest China, the spatial and temporal distributions of ET0 were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. Sensitivity coefficient was used to analyze the sensitivities of ET0 to four climate variables, and the key climate variables attributed to ET0 change were determined. Result showed that there was a slight downward trend of ET0 from 1960 to 2010 and spatially increasing trend from northeast to southwest in annual time scale. Results also showed that ET0 had relatively higher sensitivity to wind speed and mean air temperature, and wind speed was the dominant variable for change of ET0 in southwest China. The inverse relationship between increasing air temperature and decreasing evaporation, "evaporation paradox," existed in southwest China, and the negative contribution of wind speed to the changes of ET0 offset the positive contribution of air temperature.

  14. Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

    2016-09-01

    Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

  15. Visualizing Life Zone Boundary Sensitivities Across Climate Models and Temporal Spans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sisneros, Roberto R [ORNL; Huang, Jian [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Ostrouchov, George [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Life zones are a convenient and quantifiable method for delineating areas with similar plant and animal communities based on bioclimatic conditions. Such ecoregionalization techniques have proved useful for defining habitats and for studying how these habitats may shift due to environmental change. The ecological impacts of climate change are of particular interest. Here we show that visualizations of the geographic projection of life zones may be applied to the investigation of potential ecological impacts of climate change using the results of global climate model simulations. Using a multi-factor classification scheme, we show how life zones change over time based on quantitative model results into the next century. Using two straightforward metrics, we identify regions of high sensitivity to climate changes from two global climate simulations under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Finally, we identify how preferred human habitats may shift under these scenarios. We apply visualization methods developed for the purpose of displaying multivariate relationships within data, especially for situations that involve a large number of concurrent relationships. Our method is based on the concept of multivariate classification, and is implemented directly in VisIt, a production quality visualization package.

  16. Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. R. Vivoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year.

  17. Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H.; Marshall, Harry H.; Morecroft, Mike D.; Brereton, Tom; Prudhomme, Christel; Huntingford, Chris

    2015-10-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with `business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

  18. First Results from The Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D. C.; Anderson, D. M.; Tardif, R.; Steiger, N. J.; Perkins, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    Paleoclimate proxies provide the only measured record of Earth's climate history, but they are noisy and sparse in space and time. Climate model simulations provide dynamically consistent spatial fields, but lack a direct connection to specific climate states prior to the instrumental record. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) provides an optimally weighted estimate of the climate state from these two sources of information based on their error characteristics. The Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis Project (LMR) uses an ensemble-based PDA method and annually-resolved proxy records to reconstruct Earth's climate for the past 1000 years on a regular latitude--longitude grid. First results of the LMR project are reported here. Proxy records used in the first LMR reconstructions include: trees (ring width and wood density), corals (d18O and luminescence), ice cores (d18O), and a small number of sediment and speleothem records. A component of the data assimilation approach that distinguishes it from other techniques concerns the use of proxy system models to estimate the proxy from climate variables from a model simulation. Proxies are linearly related to 2-meter air temperature in a calibration dataset. Given a prior estimate of the climate from a model (here, a randomly sampled 1000-year control integration of CCSM4), we estimate the proxy value from the linear relationship (derived independently from the model). LMR analyses are compared against both existing gridded reanalysis records and withheld proxy records. Results show a cooling trend in global-mean air temperature during 1000-1900 CE, which derives primarily from cooling of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, offset by weak tropical warming. There is no evidence of a Medieval Climate Anomaly. During the 20th century, the LMR estimate of the global-mean air temperature compares very closely with other reanalysis products. Skill appears insensitive to the calibration dataset used to derive the proxy system

  19. The Sensitivity of Earth's Climate History To Changes In The Rates of Biological And Geological Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltham, D.

    2014-12-01

    The faint young Sun paradox (early Earth had surface liquid water despite solar luminosity 70% of the modern value) implies that our planet's albedo has increased through time and/or greenhouse warming has fallen. The obvious explanation is that negative feedback processes stabilized temperatures. However, the limited temperature data available does not exhibit the expected residual temperature rise and, at least for the Phanerozoic, estimates of climate sensitivity exceed the Planck sensitivity (the zero net-feedback value). The alternate explanation is that biological and geological evolution have tended to cool Earth through time hence countering solar-driven warming. The coincidence that Earth-evolution has roughly cancelled Solar-evolution can then be explained as an emergent property of a complex system (the Gaia hypothesis) or the result of the unavoidable observational bias that Earth's climate history must be compatible with our existence (the anthropic principle). Here, I use a simple climate model to investigate the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in the rate of Earth-evolution. Earth-evolution is represented by an effective emissivity which has an intrinsic variation through time (due to continental growth, the evolution of cyanobacteria, orbital fluctuations etc) plus a linear feedback term which enhances emissivity variations. An important feature of this model is a predicted maximum in the radiated-flux versus temperature function. If the increasing solar flux through time had exceeded this value then runaway warming would have occurred. For the best-guess temperature history and climate sensitivity, the Earth has always been within a few percent of this maximum. There is no obvious Gaian explanation for this flux-coincidence but the anthropic principle naturally explains it: If the rate of biological/geological evolution is naturally slow then Earth is a fortunate outlier which evolved just fast enough to avoid solar-induced over

  20. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mezősi Gábor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990 in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  1. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  2. Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beck, Pieter S.A.

    2015-01-01

    Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance1–4. Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost2,5–8, yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting...... be incorporated into Earth system models to improve future projections of climate change impacts across the tundra biome....

  3. Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

    2014-12-01

    We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

  4. Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

    2016-05-24

    Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

  5. Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Schickhoff

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics to apparently complete inertia. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding sensitivity and response of Himalayan treelines to climate warming, based on extensive field observations, published results in the widely scattered literature, and novel data from ongoing research of the present authors. Several sensitivity indicators such as treeline type, treeline form, seed-based regeneration, and growth patterns are evaluated. Since most Himalayan treelines are anthropogenically depressed, observed advances are largely the result of land use change. Near-natural treelines are usually krummholz treelines which are relatively unresponsive. Nevertheless, intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth-climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive to temperature change, in particular in winter and pre-monsoon seasons. High pre-monsoon temperature trends will most likely drive tree growth performance in W and central Himalaya. Ecological niche modelling suggests that bioclimatic conditions for a range expansion of treeline trees will be created during coming decades.

  6. Sensitivity of regional forest carbon budgets to continuous and stochastic climate change pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Scheller, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change is expected to impact forest-atmosphere carbon budgets through three processes: 1. Increased disturbance rates, including fires, mortality due to pest outbreaks, and severe storms 2. Changes in patterns of inter-annual variability, related to increased incidence of severe droughts and defoliating insect outbreaks 3. Continuous changes in forest productivity and respiration, related to increases in mean temperature, growing season length, and CO2 fertilization While the importance of these climate change effects in future regional carbon budgets has been established, quantitative characterization of the relative sensitivity of forested landscapes to these different types of pressures is needed. We present a model- and- data-based approach to understanding the sensitivity of forested landscapes to climate change pressures. Eddy-covariance and biometric measurements from forests in the northern United States were used to constrain two forest landscape models. The first, LandNEP, uses a prescribed functional form for the evolution of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the age of a forested grid cell, which is reset following a disturbance event. This model was used for investigating the basic statistical properties of a simple landscape’s responses to climate change pressures. The second model, LANDIS-II, includes different tree species and models forest biomass accumulation and succession, allowing us to investigate the effects of more complex forest processes such as species change and carbon pool accumulation on landscape responses to climate change effects. We tested the sensitivity of forested landscapes to these three types of climate change pressures by applying ensemble perturbations of random disturbance rates, distribution functions of inter-annual variability, and maximum potential carbon uptake rates, in the two models. We find that landscape-scale net carbon exchange responds linearly to continuous changes in potential carbon uptake and

  7. The role of clouds in climate model bias and sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lacagnina, C.

    2014-01-01

    Clouds are prominent in the climate system, since they play a major role in the way energy and water are cycled through the atmosphere. One of the most relevant impacts of the clouds on the earth's climate is their interaction with the radiative fluxes. Changes in this interaction in response to an

  8. Updated Results from the COS Spectroscopic Sensitivity Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osten, Rachel A.; Massa, Derck; Bostroem, Azalee; Aloisi, Alessandra; Proffitt, Charles

    2011-06-01

    We report updated results from the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph spectroscopic sensitivity monitoring programs utilizing data taken through the end of Cycle 17 and beginning of Cycle 18. Earlier results (reported in Osten et al. 2010) had indicated a wavelengthdependent decline of the FUV sensitivity which was worse at longer wavelengths. Since mid-March 2010, the rate of this sensitivity decline has become much smaller and mostly wavelength independent, and the rate of decline is now between 2 and 5%/year for all Far-Ultraviolet (FUV) gratings with sufficient signal to characterize. The characteristics of the FUV sensitivity decline are consistent with degradation of the quantum efficiency of the CsI photocathode of the FUV detector. The initial steep decline may have been caused by water vapor outgassing after COS's installation, while the subsequent decline may be due to exposure to ambient atomic oxygen present at HST's orbital altitude. New FUV Time-Dependent Sensitivity (TDS) reference files have been delivered to correct the pipeline flux calibration, however, even after the application of these TDS corrections there remain discrepancies in the absolute flux calibration which appear to depend on central wavelength and FP-POS, and can be up to 5-10%. Further investigation reveals that some of this discrepancy may be due to additional sensitivity degradation during initial on-orbit operations. As reported in Osten et al. (2010), the two NUV bare-aluminum gratings (G225M and G285M) are also showing sensitivity declines, which appear to continue trends seen during ground testing, and which may be due to ongoing evolution of an oxide layer. In contrast, the throughputs of the NUV gratings coated with MgF2 (G185M and G230L) remain stable, showing little to no sensitivity decline. The NUV bare-aluminum sensitivity decline appears to be a continuing trend from that seen on the ground.

  9. Mass Balance of a Maritime Glacier on the Southeast Tibetan Plateau and Its Climatic Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, W.

    2014-12-01

    Based on glacio-meteorological measurements and mass-balance stake records during the five-year period of 2005-2010 on the southeast Tibetan Plateau, an energy-mass balance model was applied to study the surface mass balance of the Parlung No. 94 Glacier, as well as its response to regional climate conditions. The primary physical parameters involved in the model were locally calibrated by using relevant glacio-meteorological datasets. The good agreement between the snowpack height/mass balance simulations and the in-situ measurements available from a total of 12 monitoring stakes over this glacier confirmed the satisfactory performance of the energy-mass balance model. Results suggested that the recent state of the Parlung No. 94 Glacier was far removed from the 'ideal' climatic regime leading to zero mass balance, with its annual mass balance of approximately -0.9 m w.e. during 2005-2010. Climatic sensitivity experiments were also carried out to interpret the observed mass-balance changes, and the experiments demonstrated that the maritime glaciers concerned herein were theoretically more vulnerable to ongoing climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau than potential changes in the amount of precipitation. A plausible causal explanation for the recent glacier shrinkage in this region was concerned with the increasing air temperature. Moreover, both the mass balance simulations and the field measurements indicated that the mass accumulation over this maritime glacier occurred primarily in the boreal spring. Such "spring-accumulation type" glaciers are presumed to be distributed mainly within a narrow wedge-shaped region along the Brahmaputra River. Climatic sensitivities of the glacier mass balanceare also found to be closely linked to the regional precipitation seasonality that is simultaneously modulated by various atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the southern westerlies, the Bay of Bengal vortex in the spring season and the Indian monsoon in the summer

  10. Grain size trends reveal alluvial fan sensitivity to late Pleistocene climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, A. C.; D'Arcy, M. K.; Roda Boluda, D. C.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change on eroding landscapes and the sedimentary record remain poorly understood. The measurement of grain size fining rates in stream-flow dominated deposits provides one way to address this issue because, in principle, these trends embed important information about the dynamics of sediment routing systems and their sensitivities to external forcing. At a fundamental level, downstream fining is often driven by selective deposition of sediment. The relative efficiency of this process is determined by the physical characteristics of the input sediment supply and the spatial distribution of subsidence rate, which generates the accommodation necessary for mass extraction. Here, we measure grain size fining rates from apex to toe on two alluvial fan systems in northern Death Valley, California, which have well-exposed modern and 70 ka surfaces, where the long-term tectonic boundary conditions are known and where climatic variation over this time period is well-constrained. We integrate a self-similar gravel fraction fining model, based on selective sediment extraction, with cosmogenically-derived catchment erosion rates and gravel fining data, to estimate the change in sediment flux that occurred between 70 ka and the present day. Our results show that a 30 % decrease in average precipitation rate led to a 20 % decrease in sediment flux and a clear increase in the down-fan rate of fining. This supports existing landscape evolution models that relate a decrease in precipitation rate to a decrease in sediment flux, but implies that this relationship may be sub-linear. This study offers a new approach to applying grain size fining models to mountain catchments and their alluvial fan systems, and shows fan stratigraphy can be highly sensitive to climate changes over sensitivity is lost when sediment is remobilised and recycled over a time period longer than the duration of the climatic perturbation.

  11. Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the necessity to transform global energy supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwaan, Bob van der [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policies Studies Department, P.O. Box 37154, 1030 AD Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, 79 J.F.K. Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)]. E-mail: vanderzwaan@ecn.nl; Gerlagh, Reyer [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-11-15

    This paper analyses the policy relevance of the dominant uncertainty in our current scientific understanding of the terrestrial climate system, and provides further evidence for the need to radically transform-this century-our global energy supply infrastructure, given the global average temperature increase as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. We investigate the effect on required CO{sub 2} emission reduction efforts, both in terms of how much and when, of our present uncertain knowledge of the climate sensitivity to a doubling of the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. We use a top-down integrated assessment model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil and non-fossil. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and modest but non-zero demand exists for the relatively expensive carbon-free energy resource. We find that during the forthcoming two decades the relative roles of carbon-free energy and energy savings are similar, while in the long run the importance of carbon-free energy deployment becomes predominant, independent of the assumed climate sensitivity, but dependent on some of our model's characteristic features. We also find that, in the absence of the realisation of drastic energy efficiencies or a massive deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, non-carbon energy resources should provide 10-30% and 80-90% of total energy supply, in 2020 and 2100, respectively. Finally, we observe that in our model the timing of the emissions reduction effort is nearly linear and close to independent of either the climate sensitivity or policy target.

  12. Components of Population Vulnerability and Their Relationship With Climate-Sensitive Health Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, P B; Richardson, M J

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is increasingly being framed as risks that will impact the poorest and most vulnerable communities among us. This has led to more efforts to estimate climate change risks across populations and in the context of human health and health equity. We describe the public health dimensions of climate vulnerability-exposure, population sensitivity, and adaptive capacity-and explore how these dimensions can modify population health impacts and their distribution. An overview of health disparities associated with specific climate risks is presented, and we offer potential solutions grounded in equitable urban development and improved characterization of climate vulnerabilities.

  13. Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Allen, Jenica M.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Lancaster, Lesley T.; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Travers, Steven E.

    2012-01-01

    Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One—PEP725—has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other—NECTAR—includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

  14. Potential evaporation estimation through an unstressed surface energy balance and its sensitivity to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barella-Ortiz, A.; Polcher, J.; Tuzet, A.; Laval, K.

    2013-06-01

    Potential evaporation (ETP) is a basic input for hydrological and agronomic models, as well as a key variable in most actual evaporation estimations. It has been approached through several diffusive and energy balance methods, out of which the Penman-Monteith equation is recommended as the standard one. In order to deal with the diffusive approach, ETP must be estimated at a sub-diurnal frequency, as currently done in land surface models (LSM). This study presents an improved method, developed in the ORCHIDEE LSM, which consists in estimating ETP through an unstressed surface energy balance (USEB method). The results confirm the quality of the estimation which is currently implemented in the model (Milly, 1992). ETP has also been estimated using a reference equation (computed at a daily time step) provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). First, a comparison for a reference period under current climate conditions, shows that both formulations differ, specially in arid areas. However, they supply similar values when FAO's assumption of neutral stability conditions is relaxed, by replacing FAO's aerodynamic resistance by the model's one. Furthermore, if the vapour pressure deficit (VPD) estimated for FAO's equation, is substituted by ORCHIDEE's VPD or its humidity gradient, the daily mean estimate is further improved. In a second step, ETP's sensitivity to climate change is assessed comparing trends in both formulations for the 21st Century. It is found that the USEB method shows a higher sensitivity. Both VPD and the model's humidity gradient, as well as the aerodynamic resistance have been identified as key parameters in governing ETP trends. Finally, the sensitivity study is extended to three empirical approximations based on temperature, net radiation and mass transfer (Hargreaves, Priestley-Taylor and Rohwer, respectively). The sensitivity of these methods is compared to the USEB method's one to test if simplified equations are able to reproduce

  15. Potential evaporation estimation through an unstressed surface energy balance and its sensitivity to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Barella-Ortiz

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (ETP is a basic input for hydrological and agronomic models, as well as a key variable in most actual evaporation estimations. It has been approached through several diffusive and energy balance methods, out of which the Penman–Monteith equation is recommended as the standard one. In order to deal with the diffusive approach, ETP must be estimated at a sub-diurnal frequency, as currently done in land surface models (LSM. This study presents an improved method, developed in the ORCHIDEE LSM, which consists in estimating ETP through an unstressed surface energy balance (USEB method. The results confirm the quality of the estimation which is currently implemented in the model (Milly, 1992. ETP has also been estimated using a reference equation (computed at a daily time step provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO. First, a comparison for a reference period under current climate conditions, shows that both formulations differ, specially in arid areas. However, they supply similar values when FAO's assumption of neutral stability conditions is relaxed, by replacing FAO's aerodynamic resistance by the model's one. Furthermore, if the vapour pressure deficit (VPD estimated for FAO's equation, is substituted by ORCHIDEE's VPD or its humidity gradient, the daily mean estimate is further improved. In a second step, ETP's sensitivity to climate change is assessed comparing trends in both formulations for the 21st Century. It is found that the USEB method shows a higher sensitivity. Both VPD and the model's humidity gradient, as well as the aerodynamic resistance have been identified as key parameters in governing ETP trends. Finally, the sensitivity study is extended to three empirical approximations based on temperature, net radiation and mass transfer (Hargreaves, Priestley–Taylor and Rohwer, respectively. The sensitivity of these methods is compared to the USEB method's one to test if simplified equations are

  16. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Overview of Climate Change Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2012-04-01

    NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using six different regional climate models (RCMs ) and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within four atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. Insufficient funding was available to simulate all 24 combinations of RCMs and AOGCMs. Thus, we used a balanced fractional factorial statistical design to reduce the number of combinations of RCM-AOGCM pairs to twelve. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. The geographic domain was regionalized into 29 subregions based on common climatological features, and summary climate change statistics for each of the subregions have been produced. In this overview talk, results from the RCM climate change simulations for select subregions of North America will be presented.

  17. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  18. A tale of two springs: using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedl, Mark A.; Gray, Josh M.; Melaas, Eli K.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Hufkens, Koen; Keenan, Trevor F.; Bailey, Amey; O'Keefe, John

    2014-05-01

    By the end of this century, mean annual temperatures in the Northeastern United States are expected to warm by 3-5 °C, which will have significant impacts on the structure and function of temperate forests in this region. To improve understanding of these impacts, we exploited two recent climate anomalies to explore how the springtime phenology of Northeastern temperate deciduous forests will respond to future climate warming. Specifically, springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were the warmest on record in the Northeastern United States, with temperatures that were roughly equivalent to the lower end of warming scenarios that are projected for this region decades from now. Climate conditions in these two years therefore provide a unique empirical basis, that complements model-based studies, for improving understanding of how northeastern temperate forest phenology will change in the future. To perform our investigation, we analyzed near surface air temperatures from the United States Historical Climatology Network, time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and in situ phenological observations. Our study region encompassed the northern third of the eastern temperate forest ecoregion, extending from Pennsylvania to Canada. Springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were nearly 3 °C warmer than long-term average temperatures from 1971-2000 over the region, leading to median anomalies of more than 100 growing degree days. In response, satellite and ground observations show that leaf emergence occurred up to two weeks earlier than normal, but with significant sensitivity to the specific timing of thermal forcing. These results are important for two reasons. First, they provide an empirical demonstration of the sensitivity of springtime phenology in northeastern temperate forests to future climate change that supports and complements model-based predictions. Second, our results show that subtle

  19. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

  20. Sensitivity of Vadose Zone Water Fluxes to Climate Shifts in Arid Settings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfletschinger, H. [Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Inst. (BAW), Karlsruhe (Germany); Technical Univ. of Darmstadt (Germany). Inst. of Applied Geosciences; Prömmel, K. [Freie Univ., Berlin (Germany); Schüth, C. [Technical Univ. of Darmstadt (Germany). Inst. of Applied Geosciences; Herbst, M. [Agrosphere (IBG-3), Julich (Germany); Engelhardt, I. [Technical Univ. of Darmstadt (Germany). Inst. of Applied Geosciences; Agrosphere (IBG-3), Julich (Germany)

    2014-01-01

    Vadose zone water fluxes in arid settings are investigated regarding their sensitivity to hydraulic soil parameters and meteorological data. The study is based on the inverse modeling of highly defined soil column experiments and subsequent scenario modeling comparing different climate projections for a defined arid region. In arid regions, groundwater resources are prone to depletion due to excessive water use and little recharge potential. Especially in sand dune areas, groundwater recharge is highly dependent on vadose zone properties and corresponding water fluxes. Nevertheless, vadose zone water fluxes under arid conditions are hard to determine owing to, among other reasons, deep vadose zones with generally low fluxes and only sporadic high infiltration events. In this study, we present an inverse model of infiltration experiments accounting for variable saturated nonisothermal water fluxes to estimate effective hydraulic and thermal parameters of dune sands. A subsequent scenario modeling links the results of the inverse model with projections of a global climate model until 2100. The scenario modeling clearly showed the high dependency of groundwater recharge on precipitation amounts and intensities, whereas temperature increases are only of minor importance for deep infiltration. However, simulated precipitation rates are still affected by high uncertainties in the response to the hydrological input data of the climate model. Thus, higher certainty in the prediction of precipitation pattern is a major future goal for climate modeling to constrain future groundwater management strategies in arid regions.

  1. Sensitivity of global biogenic isoprenoid emissions to climate variability and atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Vaishali; Delire, Christine; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2004-03-01

    Isoprenoids (isoprene and monoterpenes) are the most dominant class of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and have been shown to significantly affect global tropospheric chemistry and composition, climate, and the global carbon cycle. In this study we assess the sensitivity of biogenic isoprene and monoterpene emissions to combined and isolated fluctuations in observed global climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the period 1971-1990. We integrate surface emission algorithms within the framework of a dynamic global ecosystem model, the Integrated Biospheric Simulator (IBIS), to simulate biogenic fluxes of isoprenoids as a component of the climate-vegetation dynamics. IBIS predicts global land surface isoprene emissions of 454 Tg C and monoterpenes of 72 Tg C annually and captures the spatial and temporal patterns well. The combined fluctuations in climate and atmospheric CO2 during 1971-1990 caused significant interannual and seasonal variability in global biogenic isoprenoid fluxes that was somewhat related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, an increasing trend in the simulated emissions was seen during this period that is attributed partly to the warming trend and partly to CO2 fertilization effect. The isolated effect of increasing CO2 during this period was to steadily increase emissions as a result of increases in foliar biomass. These fluctuations in biogenic emissions could have significant impacts on regional and global atmospheric chemistry and the global carbon budget.

  2. Thermal sensitivity of cold climate lizards and the importance of distributional ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonino, Marcelo F; Moreno Azócar, Débora L; Schulte, James A; Abdala, Cristian S; Cruz, Félix B

    2015-08-01

    One of the fundamental goals in macroecology is to understand the relationship among species' geographic ranges, ecophysiology, and climate; however, the mechanisms underlying the distributional geographic patterns observed remain unknown for most organisms. In the case of ectotherms this is particularly important because the knowledge of these interactions may provide a robust framework for predicting the potential consequences of climate change in these organisms. Here we studied the relationship of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance in Patagonian lizards and their geographic ranges, proposing that species with wider distributions have broader plasticity and thermal tolerance. We predicted that lizard thermal physiology is related to the thermal characteristics of the environment. We also explored the presence of trade-offs of some thermal traits and evaluated the potential effects of a predicted scenario of climate change for these species. We examined sixteen species of Liolaemini lizards from Patagonia representing species with different geographic range sizes. We obtained thermal tolerance data and performance curves for each species in laboratory trials. We found evidence supporting the idea that higher physiological plasticity allows species to achieve broader distribution ranges compared to species with restricted distributions. We also found a trade-off between broad levels of plasticity and higher optimum temperatures of performance. Finally, results from contrasting performance curves against the highest environmental temperatures that lizards may face in a future scenario (year 2080) suggest that the activity of species occurring at high latitudes may be unaffected by predicted climatic changes.

  3. Climatic sensitivity of the non-glaciated mountains cryosphere (Tatra Mts., Poland and Slovakia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gądek, Bogdan

    2014-10-01

    This paper concerns the response of the conditioned by orography cryosphere of the non-glaciated mountains of mid-latitude to the climate impulses. It presents the relationships among the air temperature, precipitation, snow cover, lake ice cover, firn-ice patches (glacierets) and permafrost in the Tatras. The data from the warmest multi-year in the history of the local meteorological measurements and statistical models (multiple regression) have been used. The results indicate that all the components of the contemporary cryosphere are very sensitive to the changes in the air temperature in winter or snow precipitation/accumulation. Due to the diverse orographic conditions, interannual variability of seasonal and perennial, surface and subsurface ice deposits in the mountain areas may not be synchronous. However, the long-term trends of this variability reflect the changes in the global climate system.

  4. The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakim, Gregory J.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Steig, Eric J.; Noone, David; Anderson, David M.; Tardif, Robert; Steiger, Nathan; Perkins, Walter A.

    2016-06-01

    An "offline" approach to DA is used, where static ensemble samples are drawn from existing CMIP climate-model simulations to serve as the prior estimate of climate variables. We use linear, univariate forward models ("proxy system models (PSMs)") that map climate variables to proxy measurements by fitting proxy data to 2 m air temperature from gridded instrumental temperature data; the linear PSMs are then used to predict proxy values from the prior estimate. Results for the LMR are compared against six gridded instrumental temperature data sets and 25% of the proxy records are withheld from assimilation for independent verification. Results show broad agreement with previous reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean 2 m air temperature, with millennial-scale cooling, a multicentennial warm period around 1000 C.E., and a cold period coincident with the Little Ice Age (circa 1450-1800 C.E.). Verification against gridded instrumental data sets during 1880-2000 C.E. reveals greatest skill in the tropics and lowest skill over Northern Hemisphere land areas. Verification against independent proxy records indicates substantial improvement relative to the model (prior) data without proxy assimilation. As an illustrative example, we present multivariate reconstructed fields for a singular event, the 1808/1809 "mystery" volcanic eruption, which reveal global cooling that is strongly enhanced locally due to the presence of the Pacific-North America wave pattern in the 500 hPa geopotential height field.

  5. After the Data: Taking Action on ClimateQUAL® Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Uzelac

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective – This paper discusses the actions taken by the staff development and training (SD&T team at the Sheridan Libraries and Johns Hopkins University Museums in response to results of a ClimateQUAL survey.Methods – The team administered the ClimateQUAL Organizational Climate and Diversity Assessment in March 2009 to the 150 staff members of the museums and libraries, and 80% responded. To get at the root of some of the results, the team conducted 23 focus group sessions over the course of two months. In each 90-minute session, 8 open-ended questions were used to probe the staff’s thoughts on the survey results and elicit concrete suggestions for moving forward. Participants were asked to discuss their personal experiences with six areas of concern: procedural justice, distributive justice, structural facilitation of teamwork, psychological safety, communication, and leadership. One year after the original ClimateQUAL survey, the team administered a one-question follow-up survey.Results – The team analyzed and coded the notes taken during the focus group sessions and developed three discrete written summaries for each session: a brief summary of themes, a list of specific actionable suggestions, and a general description of specific scenarios aired in the sessions. From these analyses, the team developed two types of recommendations: quick tactical actions and long-term strategic recommendations. Strategic recommendations were developed in three main areas: fostering a sense of global ownership of organizational issues, improving organizational communication, and improving leadership and facilitation of teamwork. With these recommendations, the team charged managers to take broad ownership of a plan for individual actions. The results of the one-year follow-up survey were mixed. Staff perceived positive change in communication, but indicated that the areas of procedural and distributive justice, psychological safety, and transparency

  6. Continuous rainfall generation for a warmer climate using observed temperature sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-01-01

    Continuous rainfall sequences are often used as inputs in hydrologic modeling, particularly where a probabilistic assessment is required. Continuous rainfall sequences provide a means for accounting of all aspects of rainfall that produce flooding, for example, not just the design rainfall event but also the rainfall prior to the extreme rainfall event. With the advent of climate change, higher temperatures have been associated with changes in rainfall, in particular intensifying rainfall extremes with less uniform temporal patterns. Given these demonstrated changes to extreme rainfall with temperature rise, there is a need to modify continuous rainfall generators to account for current and likely future changes in temperature. In this work we propose a novel method for simulating continuous rainfall sequences for a future warmer climate by conditioning parameters on their historical sensitivity with temperature. To demonstrate the proposed technique we use a one-dimensional Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model at two locations across Australia. The statistics used in the parameter estimation are conditioned on their historical sensitivity to average monthly temperature to simulate rainfall for a change in temperature. The results are validated by comparing the simulated rainfall against observations originating from differing temperatures and it is shown that the model captures the relative difference in the mean monthly rainfall and monthly maxima. Encouraged by these results we simulate rainfall for higher temperatures and capture expected changes to annual maxima and design temporal patterns for a warmer climate. While we demonstrate our methodology in the simulation of sub-daily rainfall using a specific model, the approach presented here can be applied to all weather generation schemes for projection in a warmer climate.

  7. Sensitivity of reservoir storage and outflow to climate change in a water-limited river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, G.; Gao, H.; Naz, B. S.; Kao, S. C.; Voisin, N.

    2015-12-01

    During the past several decades, numerous reservoirs have been built across the world for a variety of purposes such as flood control, irrigation, municipal water supplies, and hydropower. Consequently, streamflow timing and magnitude are altered significantly by reservoir operations. In addition, the hydrological cycle can be modified substantially by a changing climate. Therefore, a distributed hydrological model which has an embedded reservoir component is essential for representing these effects in future water management planning strategies. In this study, a multi-purpose reservoir module was integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The DHSVM model was selected because of its high spatial and temporal resolution and because of its explicit representation of the physical processes. Prescribed operating rules, which are designed to reduce flood risk and enhance water supply reliability, were adopted in this module. The integrated model was tested over a water-limited basin (i.e. the central Brazos River Basin, Texas). Both the calibration and validation results suggest that the model performed robustly at daily, weekly, and monthly levels. Subsequently, the effect of climate sensitivity on reservoir storage and outflow was assessed by perturbing precipitation within a range from -30% to 30% and temperature from -2 °C to 2 °C. Results suggest that both variables are more sensitive to precipitation than temperature. However, there are more uncertainties associated with future precipitation than temperature. It was also found that the sensitivities vary significantly by season. Enabled with the new reservoir component, the DHSVM model provides a platform for projecting future water availability estimations under flow regulation, climate change, and land cover/land use changes. We expect this integrated model to be beneficial for sustainable water resources management.

  8. Sensitivity of WRF Regional Climate Simulations to Choice of Land Use Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    The goal of this study is to assess the sensitivity of regional climate simulations run with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the choice of datasets representing land use and land cover (LULC). Within a regional climate modeling application, an accurate repres...

  9. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Sensitivity Coefifcients to Climate Factors in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jian-ying; LIU Qin; MEI Xu-rong; YAN Chang-rong; JU Hui; XUJian-wen

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will have important implications in water shore regions, such as Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) plain, where expected warmer and drier conditions might augment crop water demand. Sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation in reference evapotranspiration (ET0). In this study, the 51-yrET0 during winter wheat and summer maize growing season were calculated from a data set of daily climate variables in 40 meteorological stations. Sensitivity maps for key climate variables were estimated according to Kriging method and the spatial pattern of sensitivity coefifcients for these key variables was plotted. In addition, the slopes of the linear regression lines for sensitivity coefifcients were obtained. Results showed thatET0 during winter wheat growing season accounted for the largest proportion of annualET0, due to its long phenological days, whileET0 was detected to decrease signiifcantly with the magnitude of 0.5 mmyr-1 in summer maize growing season. Solar radiation is considered to be the most sensitive and primarily controlling variable for negative trend inET0 for summer maize season, and higher sensitive coefifcient value ofET0 to solar radiation and temperature were detected in east part and southwest part of 3H plain respectively. Relative humidity was demonstrated as the most sensitive factor forET0 in winter wheat growing season and declining relativity humidity also primarily controlled a negative trend inET0, furthermore the sensitivity coefifcient to relative humidity increased from west to southeast. The eight sensitivity centrals were all found located in Shandong Province. TheseET0 along with its sensitivity maps under winter wheat-summer maize rotation system can be applied to predict the agricultural water demand and will assist water resources planning and management for this region.

  10. High regional climate sensitivity over continental China constrained by glacial-recent changes in temperature and the hydrological cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagle, Robert A; Risi, Camille; Mitchell, Jonathan L; Eiler, John M; Seibt, Ulrike; Neelin, J David; Li, Gaojun; Tripati, Aradhna K

    2013-05-28

    The East Asian monsoon is one of Earth's most significant climatic phenomena, and numerous paleoclimate archives have revealed that it exhibits variations on orbital and suborbital time scales. Quantitative constraints on the climate changes associated with these past variations are limited, yet are needed to constrain sensitivity of the region to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Here, we show central China is a region that experienced a much larger temperature change since the Last Glacial Maximum than typically simulated by climate models. We applied clumped isotope thermometry to carbonates from the central Chinese Loess Plateau to reconstruct temperature and water isotope shifts from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We find a summertime temperature change of 6-7 °C that is reproduced by climate model simulations presented here. Proxy data reveal evidence for a shift to lighter isotopic composition of meteoric waters in glacial times, which is also captured by our model. Analysis of model outputs suggests that glacial cooling over continental China is significantly amplified by the influence of stationary waves, which, in turn, are enhanced by continental ice sheets. These results not only support high regional climate sensitivity in Central China but highlight the fundamental role of planetary-scale atmospheric dynamics in the sensitivity of regional climates to continental glaciation, changing greenhouse gas levels, and insolation.

  11. Impacts of carbonaceous aerosols on climate: Examination of the sensitivity of simulated regional climates to absorbing and scattering aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randles, Cynthia Ann

    This thesis is motivated by the critical need to better understand and quantify the climate effects of carbonaceous aerosols, i.e. black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The sensitivity of aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing to internally mixing sea salt and organic carbon aerosols is investigated. Increased organic mass content (1) decreases aerosol hygroscopic growth and (2) decreases aerosol scattering consistent with observations. Increased OC mass content also decreases clear-sky shortwave radiative cooling over the oceans relative to pure sea salt aerosols, with the magnitude of the change sensitive to the amount of absorption assumed for the organic carbon fraction. Guided by the available observations, numerical experiments are designed for the GFDL AM2 global climate model (GCM) with prescribed sea surface temperatures to test the sensitivity of aerosol direct radiative forcing and climate response to potential changes in aerosol amount (extinction optical depth; tau e) and aerosol absorption (absorption optical depth; tau a) that have occurred over India and China over the past half century. Aerosol optical properties and the resulting direct radiative forcing are compared to available observations. The response of the model to lower tau e is usually statistically insignificant. At higher tau e, increased taua contributes to enhanced shortwave atmospheric heating and an enhanced monsoonal circulation that increases precipitation, precipitable water, and low cloud amount over India. In contrast, decreasing taua spins down the hydrological cycle and decelerates the monsoon; also dimming at the surface is reduced because cloud amount decreases, counteracting the surface solar flux reduction due to high taue. Precipitation changes over southeastern and northeastern China are qualitatively consistent with observations when some aerosol absorption is present. The impacts of increased taue and changes in taua based on satellite observations are

  12. Sensitivity of Amazon rainforest to drought: results from forest inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteucci G

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A recent study based on inventory data from the RAINFOR network, published in the journal Science, reported a relevant effect of an anomalous dry year (2005 on biomass accumulation and mortality in Amazon old-growth forests. Results were obtained by comparing inventory data taken before and after the dry year and point to biomass losses in consequence of drought. These losses were driven by large mortality increases at some plots and by small but diffuse declines in growth. If upscaled to the area affected by drought, the release of carbon (1.21 PgC would be much larger than that resulting from deforestation in the area (0.3÷0.8 PgC and would offset the carbon gained in the recent past (0.5 PgC. As the frequency of extreme dry years is expected to increase in future climate scenarios, regional carbon balances may be strongly impacted with a positive feedback on climate change. The main results of the paper are briefly presented and commented.

  13. Sensitivity of the CCM climate to enhanced cloud absorption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiehl, J. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Recent indications suggest that clouds may be absorbing more solar radiation than was previously thought. This research investigates some of the evidence for this hypothesis; potential physical mechanisms are briefly discussed as well. The climatic implications of the enhanced absorption are investigated using the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). It is found that the model`s heat budget in the tropical warm pool agrees more closely with observations when enhanced absorption is included. On the whole, the addition of enhanced absorption improves the model`s performance in the tropics and degrades it in the extra-tropics. 3 figs.

  14. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days),

  15. Community vulnerability to climate change in the context of other exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk, Nunavut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Tozer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change in the Canadian north is, and will be, managed by communities that are already experiencing social, political, economic and other environmental changes. Hence, there is a need to understand vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple exposure-sensitivities at the community level. This article responds to this perceived knowledge need based on a case study of the community of Kugluktuk in Nunavut, Canada. An established approach for vulnerability assessment is used to identify current climatic and non-climatic exposure-sensitivities along with their associated contemporary adaptation strategies. This assessment of current vulnerability is used as a basis to consider Kugluktuk's possible vulnerability to climatic change in the future. Current climate-related exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk relate primarily to subsistence harvesting and community infrastructure. Thinner and less stable ice conditions and unpredictable weather patterns are making travel and harvesting more dangerous and some community infrastructure is sensitive to permafrost melt and extreme weather events (e.g., flash floods. The ability of individuals and households to adapt to these and other climatic exposure-sensitivities is influenced by non-climatic factors that condition adaptive capacity including substance abuse, the erosion of traditional knowledge and youth suicide. These and other non-climatic factors often underpin adaptive capacity to deal with and adapt to changing conditions and must be considered in an assessment of vulnerability. This research argues that Northern communities are challenged by multiple exposure-sensitivities—beyond just those posed by climate—and effective adaptation to climate change requires consideration if not resolution of socio-economic and other issues in communities.

  16. Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; Vogel, Bernhard; Cooke, William F.

    2016-10-01

    Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction.Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations that do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models.New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.

  17. A local scale assessment of the climate change sensitivity of snow in Pyrenean ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesado, Cristina; Pons, Marc; Vilella, Marc; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    The Pyrenees host one of the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps that encompasses the mountain area of the south of France, the north of Spain and the small country of Andorra. In this region, winter tourism is one of the main source of income and driving force of local development on these mountain communities. However, this activity was identified as one of the most vulnerable to a future climate change due to the projected decrease of natural snow and snowmaking capacity. However, within the same ski resorts different areas showed to have a very different vulnerability within the same resort based on the geographic features of the area and the technical management of the slopes. Different areas inside a same ski resort could have very different vulnerability to future climate change based on aspect, steepness or elevation. Furthermore, the technical management of ski resorts, such as snowmaking and grooming were identified to have a significant impact on the response of the snowpack in a warmer climate. In this line, two different ski resorts were deeply analyzed taken into account both local geographical features as well as the effect of the technical management of the runs. Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the main areas of the resort based on the geographic features (elevation, aspect and steepness) and identify the main representative areas with different local features. Snow energy and mass balance was simulated in the different representative areas using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) assuming different magnitudes of climate warming (increases of 2°C and 4°C in the mean winter temperature) both in natural conditions and assuming technical management of the slopes. Theses first results showed the different sensitivity and vulnerability to climate changes based on the local geography of the resort and the management of the ski runs, showing the importance to include these variables when analyzing the local vulnerability

  18. Assessing sensitivities in algorithmic detection of tropical cyclones in climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, Colin M.; Ullrich, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    This study applies a sensitivity analysis (SA) technique (the Morris method, MM) to an automated Lagrangian tropical cyclone (TC) tracking algorithm used on gridded climate data. MM demonstrates the ability to screen for input parameters defining TCs (such as minimum intensity and lifetime) that contribute significantly to sensitivity in output metrics (such as storm count). The SA is performed by tracking TCs in four different reanalyses. Tracked TC trajectories are compared to a pointwise observational record. Results show that using thermally integrated metrics for isolating TC warm cores is superior to single-temperature levels. Input thresholds defining TC vortex strength during tracking contribute the most variance in all output metrics. Integrated output metrics (such as accumulated cyclone energy) are less variable than "counting" metrics such as TC frequency. MM greatly reduces the computational requirements for tracker optimization, with tracked TCs demonstrating better hit and false alarm rates than previous studies.

  19. Applications of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation in Predictability Study and Sensitivity Analysis of Weather and Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Considering the limitation of the linear theory of singular vector (SV), the authors and their collaborators proposed conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and then applied it in the predictability study and the sensitivity analysis of weather and climate system. To celebrate the 20th anniversary of Chinese National Committee for World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), this paper is devoted to reviewing the main results of these studies. First, CNOP represents the initial perturbation that has largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time, which is different from linear singular vector (LSV) for the large magnitude of initial perturbation or/and the long optimization time interval. Second, CNOP,rather than linear singular vector (LSV), represents the initial anomaly that evolves into ENSO events most probably. It is also the CNOP that induces the most prominent seasonal variation of error growth for ENSO predictability; furthermore, CNOP was applied to investigate the decadal variability of ENSO asymmetry. It is demonstrated that the changing nonlinearity causes the change of ENSO asymmetry.Third, in the studies of the sensitivity and stability of ocean's thermohaline circulation (THC), the non-linear asymmetric response of THC to finite amplitude of initial perturbations was revealed by CNOP.Through this approach the passive mechanism of decadal variation of THC was demonstrated; Also the authors studies the instability and sensitivity analysis of grassland ecosystem by using CNOP and show the mechanism of the transitions between the grassland and desert states. Finally, a detailed discussion on the results obtained by CNOP suggests the applicability of CNOP in predictability studies and sensitivity analysis.

  20. A simple water-energy balance framework to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Renner

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009 presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We provide a theoretical foundation of this concept by showing that it is based on a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. The concept uses a special condition that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing.

    Here we apply this assumption and derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity on climate. We show how climate sensitivity is influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the new method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods.

  1. Seasonal divergence in the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to climate and vegetation growth in the Yellow River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Tingting; Wu, Xiuchen; Li, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Yu; Shi, Fangzhong; Ma, Yujun; Wang, Pei; Zhang, Cicheng

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal variations in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) have crucial impacts on the seasonal trajectories of the regional water cycle, vegetation growth, and local climate feedback. However, the possibly divergent roles of climate and vegetation growth variations in controlling seasonal ET patterns remain poorly quantified. This study therefore quantifies the interannual sensitivity and attribution of ET to climate and vegetation growth variations in different seasons and different biomes in the YRB in China between 1982 and 2011, using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), FLUXNET-based upscaled ET, and concurrent climate data. The results reveal a clear seasonal divergence in the interannual sensitivity of ET to climate and vegetation growth variations in the YRB. Interannual precipitation and NDVI variations play a dominant role in controlling seasonal ET variations in the YRB, with temperature having a marginal effect. Interannual ET sensitivity to precipitation weakens with an increasing mean annual precipitation gradient in almost all seasons, especially in summer and autumn. More importantly, a seasonally varying role of vegetation growth in mediating seasonal ET was discovered, and a crucial role of late-growing-season vegetation growth in controlling the seasonal trajectory of regional ET was explicitly identified. These results suggest that ongoing intensive vegetation restoration has crucial impacts on seasonal water-cycle patterns and consequent terrestrial-atmospheric biogeochemical feedback in the YRB.

  2. Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2009-01-01

    The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the...

  3. What do model results tell us regarding Climate Intervention (Geoengineering) strategies to counter high latitude climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasch, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    A number of modeling studies at various levels of complexity have taken place to explore consequences of climate intervention in countering climate change. I will review results from some of those studies, cover some new analysis, and identify areas where more study is needed, with a focus on high latitude climate.

  4. Natural ocean carbon cycle sensitivity to parameterizations of the recycling in a climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Romanou

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. The Southern Ocean emerges as a key region where the CO2 flux is as sensitive to biological parameterizations as it is to physical parameterizations. Mixing in the Southern Ocean is shown to be a~good indicator of the magnitude of the biological pump efficiency regardless of physical model choice.

  5. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  6. Sensitivity of source apportionment results to mobile source profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Tianqi; Schauer, James J; Huang, Wei; Fang, Dongqing; Shang, Jing; Wang, Yuqin; Zhang, Yuanxun

    2016-12-01

    The sensitivity of a source apportionment model to mobile source profiles was examined to determine the impact of using non-local mobile source profiles in chemical mass balance (CMB) models. We examined the impact of USA and Chinese mobile source profiles on source apportionment results in St. Louis, Missouri, and Beijing. The results showed that the use of non-local mobile source profiles did not impact the model apportionment results for vegetative detritus and biomass burning, but other primary source contributions were influenced by the use of non-local source profiles. Secondary organic carbon (SOC) contributions estimated by the CMB models with local and non-local profiles were compared to estimate of SOC from the EC tracer method and were found to be consistent with little bias. The results also showed that it is feasible to use the USA mobile profiles in China while model results were biased by using Chinese mobile profiles in the USA. Monthly and annual average concentrations of molecular markers in the source apportionment model showed lower sensitivity to source profiles than daily measurements, which has implications to the design of source apportionment studies.

  7. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  8. Alluvial fan sensitivity to glacial-interglacial climate change: case studies from Death Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Alexander; D'Arcy, Mitch; Roda-Boluda, Duna; Brooke, Sam

    2016-04-01

    The effects of climate change on eroding landscapes and the sedimentary record remain poorly understood. The measurement of regional grain size trends in stream-flow deposits provides one way to address this issue because, in principle, these trends embed important information on the dynamics of sediment routing systems and their sensitivity to external forcings. In many cases, downstream stratigraphic fining is primarily driven by selective deposition of sediment. The relative efficiency of this process is determined by the physical characteristics of the input sediment supply and the spatial distribution of subsidence rate, which generates the accommodation necessary for mass extraction. Here, we measure grain size fining rates from apex to toe for alluvial fan systems in Death Valley, California, which have well-exposed modern and late Pleistocene deposits, where the long-term tectonic boundary conditions are known and where climatic variation over this time period is well-constrained. Our field data demonstrate that input grain sizes and input fining rates do vary noticeably over the late Pleistocene-Holocene period in this study area, although there is little evidence for significant changes in rates of faulting in the last 200 ky. For two catchments in the Grapevine Mountains for which we have excellent stratigraphic constraints on modern and 70 ka fan deposits, we use a self-similarity based grain size fining model to understand changes in sediment flux to the fans over this time period. When calibrated with cosmogenically-derived catchment erosion rates, our results show that a 30 % decrease in average precipitation rate over this time-frame led to a 20 % decrease in sediment flux to the fans, and a clear increase in the down-fan rate of fining. This supports existing landscape evolution models that relate a decrease in precipitation rate to a decrease in sediment flux, but implies that the relationship between sediment flux and precipitation rate may be

  9. Review and Quantitative Analysis of Indices of Climate Change Exposure, Adaptive Capacity, Sensitivity, and Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is necessary, in addition to mitigation of climate change, to avoid unacceptable impacts of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC 2007]. UNFCCC Article 4 requires developed countries to assist developing countries that are "particularly vulnerable" to climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to its adverse effects. As a result, three funds have been established under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol to provide financial resources for assessing, planning, and implem...

  10. Evaluation of water-energy balance frameworks to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Renner

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009 presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We relate the concept to a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. We show that the concept is equivalent to the assumption that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing.

    Here, we use this assumption to derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity to climate. We show how, according to this assumption, climate sensitivity would be influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods and illustrated by three case studies. It appears that the largest differences between both approaches occur under limiting conditions. Specifically, the sensitivity framework based on the ecohydrological concept does not adhere to the water and energy limits, while the Budyko approach accounts for limiting conditions by increasing the sensitivity of streamflow to a catchment parameter encoding basin characteristics. Our findings do not support any application of the ecohydrological concept under conditions close to the water or energy limits, instead we suggest a correction based on the Budyko framework.

  11. Estimations of climate sensitivity based on top-of-atmosphere radiation imbalance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Schuster

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the accuracy in predicting the response of the Earth's climate to the increase of CO2 concentration within the atmosphere. This study explores a potential to reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimations using energy balance analysis, especially top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation imbalance. The time-scales studied generally cover from decade to century, that is, middle-range climate sensitivity is considered, which is directly related to the climate issue caused by atmospheric CO2 change. The significant difference between current analysis and previous energy balance models is that the current study targets at the boundary condition problem instead of solving the initial condition problem. Additionally, climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport are considered. The climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance and surface temperature measurements of the present climate.

    Currently, there is a lack of high accuracy measurements of TOA radiation imbalance. Available estimations indicate that TOA net radiative heating to the climate system is about 0.85 W/m2. Based on this value, a positive climate feedback with a feedback coefficient ranging from −1.3 to −1.0 W/m2/K is found. The range of feedback coefficient is determined by climate system memory. The longer the memory, the stronger the positive feedback. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70~120 years mainly owing to the deep ocean heat transport, implying that the system may be not in an equilibrium state under the external forcing during the industrial era. For the doubled-CO2 climate (or 3.7 W/m2 forcing, the estimated global warming would be 3.1 K if the current estimate of 0.85 W/m2 TOA net radiative heating could be confirmed. With accurate long-term measurements of TOA radiation, the

  12. Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines and rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics to apparently compl...

  13. Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The inconsistency of findings suggests distinct differences in the sensitivity of global treelines to recent climate change. It is still unclear where Himalayan treeline ecotones are located along the response gradient from rapid dynamics ...

  14. Central Sensitization and Perceived Indoor Climate among Workers with Chronic Upper-Limb Pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Jakobsen, Markus D; Brandt, Mikkel;

    2015-01-01

    threshold (PPT) was measured in muscles of the arm, shoulder, and lower leg. Cross-sectional associations were determined using general linear models controlled for age, smoking, and job position. The number of indoor climate complaints was twice as high among workers with chronic pain compared with pain...... not account for musculoskeletal pain in questionnaire assessment of indoor climate may be biased. Central sensitization likely explains the present findings....

  15. Hydrological response to large-scale climate variability across the Pearl River basin, China: Spatiotemporal patterns and sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this study is to examine whether the climatic driving forces can describe the observed variability in available water resources and the magnitude of flooding over the Pearl River basin. 62 stations with 41 years of monthly streamflow records and 28 stations with 60 years of annual maximum streamflow records were used in this study. Four climate indices related to the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans were used to analyze their influence on annual mean discharge (Qann) and annual maximum daily discharge (Qmax) of the Pearl River basin, and the indices are El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that the variations in available water resources and the magnitudes of floods across Pearl River can be explained by climate variability, potentially. The Qann and Qmax in different regions of the domain were significantly related to different climate indices at the same year or at the last year. In addition, in many regions the strengths of the relationships between climate indices and Qann and Qmax have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. Furthermore, the quantifications of climate indices impacts on Qann and Qmax (i.e. sensitive) were also assessed. The results showed that Qmax was more sensitive to the variability of atmospheric circulation than Qann. In addition, Qann varied on average between 0.3 and 24%, while Qmax varied between 0.5 and 31% per unit climate index change. The above relationships between climate indices and Qann and Qmax provided relevant information for water resources management in Pearl River basin, allowing the identification of regions with higher flood risk and enhancement of human mitigation to floods.

  16. Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

    2015-01-15

    Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions.

  17. Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulin Tao

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST under representative concentration pathways (RCPs scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

  18. Sensitivity of SWAT simulated streamflow to climatic changes within the Eastern Nile River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Mengistu

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological model SWAT was run with daily station based precipitation and temperature data for the whole Eastern Nile basin including the three subbasins: the Abbay (Blue Nile, BaroAkobo and Tekeze. The daily and monthly streamflows were calibrated and validated at six outlets with station-based streamflow data in the three different subbasins. The model performed very well in simulating the monthly variability while the validation against daily data revealed a more diverse performance. The simulations indicated that around 60% of the average annual rainfalls of the subbasins were lost through evaporation while the estimated runoff coefficients were 0.24, 0.30 and 0.18 for Abbay, BaroAkobo and Tekeze subbasins, respectively. About half to two-thirds of the runoff could be attributed to surface runoff while the other contributions came from groundwater.

    Twenty hypothetical climate change scenarios (perturbed temperatures and precipitation were conducted to test the sensitivity of SWAT simulated annual streamflow. The result revealed that the annual streamflow sensitivity to changes in precipitation and temperature differed among the basins and the dependence of the response on the strength of the changes was not linear. On average the annual streamflow responses to a change in precipitation with no temperature change were 19%, 17%, and 26% per 10% change in precipitation while the average annual streamflow responses to a change in temperature and no precipitation change were −4.4% K−1, −6.4% K−1, and −1.3% K−1 for Abbay, BaroAkobo and Tekeze river basins, respectively.

    47 temperature and precipitation scenarios from 19 AOGCMs participating inCMIP3 were used to estimate future changes in streamflow due to climate changes. The climate models disagreed on both the strength and the direction of future precipitation changes. Thus, no clear conclusions could be made about future

  19. Using stochastic sampling of parametric uncertainties to quantify relationships between CAM3.1 bias and climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, C. S.; Tobis, M.

    2011-12-01

    It is an untested assumption in climate model evaluation that climate model biases affect its credibility. Models with the smaller biases are often regarded as being more plausible than models with larger biases. However not all biases affect predictions. It is only those biases that are involved with feedback mechanisms can lead to scatter in its predictions of change. To date no metric of model skill has been defined that can predict a model's sensitivity greenhouse gas forcing. Being able to do so will be an important step to how we can use observations to define a model's credibility. We shall present results of a calculation in which we attempt to isolate the contribution of errors in particular regions and fields to uncertainties in CAM3.1 equilibrium sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 forcing. In this calculation, observations, Bayesian inference, and stochastic sampling are used to identify a large ensemble of CAM3.1 configurations that represent uncertainties in selecting 15 model parameters important to clouds, convection, and radiation. A slab ocean configuration of CAM3.1 is then used to estimate the effects of these parametric uncertainties on projections of global warming through its equilibrium response to 2 x CO2 forcing. We then correlate the scatter in the control climate at each grid point and field to the scatter in climate sensitivities. The presentation will focus on the analysis of these results.

  20. Climate change threatens archaeologically significant ice patches: insights into their age, internal structure, mass balance and climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strand Ødegård, Rune; Nesje, Atle; Isaksen, Ketil; Andreassen, Liss Marie; Eiken, Trond; Schwikowski, Margit; Uglietti, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    Despite numerous spectacular archaeological discoveries worldwide related to melting ice patches and the emerging field of glacial archaeology, governing processes related to ice patch development during the Holocene and their sensitivity to climate change are still largely unexplored. Here we present new results from an extensive 6-year (2009-2015) field experiment at the Juvfonne ice patch in Jotunheimen in central southern Norway. Our results show that the ice patch has existed continuously since the late Mesolithic period. Organic-rich layers and carbonaceous aerosols embedded in clear ice show ages spanning from modern at the surface to ca. 7600 cal years BP at the bottom. This is the oldest dating of ice in mainland Norway. The expanding ice patch covered moss mats appearing along the margin of Juvfonne about 2000 years ago. During the study period, the mass balance record showed a strong negative balance, and the annual balance is highly asymmetric over short distances. Snow accumulation is poorly correlated with estimated winter precipitation, and single storm events may contribute significantly to the total winter balance. Snow accumulation is approx. 20 % higher in the frontal area compared to the upper central part of the ice patch. There is sufficient meltwater to bring the permeable snowpack to an isothermal state within a few weeks in early summer. Below the seasonal snowpack, ice temperatures are between -2 and -4 °C. Juvfonne has clear ice stratification of isochronic origin.

  1. Photosynthesis sensitivity to climate change in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrique-Sunen, Andrea; Black, Emily; Verhoef, Anne; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2016-04-01

    Accurate representation of vegetation processes within land surface models is key to reproducing surface carbon, water and energy fluxes. Photosynthesis determines the amount of CO2 fixated by plants as well as the water lost in transpiration through the stomata. Photosynthesis is calculated in land surface models using empirical equations based on plant physiological research. It is assumed that CO2 assimilation is either CO2 -limited, radiation -limited ; and in some models export-limited (the speed at which the products of photosynthesis are used by the plant) . Increased levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration tend to enhance photosynthetic activity, but the effectiveness of this fertilization effect is regulated by environmental conditions and the limiting factor in the photosynthesis reaction. The photosynthesis schemes at the 'leaf level' used by land surface models JULES and CTESSEL have been evaluated against field photosynthesis observations. Also, the response of photosynthesis to radiation, atmospheric CO2 and temperature has been analysed for each model, as this is key to understanding the vegetation response that climate models using these schemes are able to reproduce. Particular emphasis is put on the limiting factor as conditions vary. It is found that while at present day CO2 concentrations export-limitation is only relevant at low temperatures, as CO2 levels rise it becomes an increasingly important restriction on photosynthesis.

  2. Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of

  3. Estimations of climate sensitivity based on top-of-atmosphere radiation imbalance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Lin

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the accuracy in predicting the response of the Earth's climate to the increase of CO2 concentration within the atmosphere. This study explores a potential to reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimations using energy balance analysis, especially top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation imbalance. The time-scales studied generally cover from decade to century, that is, middle-range climate sensitivity is considered, which is directly related to the climate issue caused by atmospheric CO2 change. The significant difference between current analysis and previous energy balance models is that the current study targets at the boundary condition problem instead of solving the initial condition problem. Additionally, climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport are considered. The climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance and surface temperature measurements of the present climate. In this study, the TOA imbalance value of 0.85 W/m2 is used. Note that this imbalance value has large uncertainties. Based on this value, a positive climate feedback with a feedback coefficient ranging from −1.3 to −1.0 W/m2/K is found. The range of feedback coefficient is determined by climate system memory. The longer the memory, the stronger the positive feedback. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70~120 years mainly owing to the deep ocean heat transport, implying that the system may be not in an equilibrium state under the external forcing during the industrial era. For the doubled-CO2 climate (or 3.7 W/m2 forcing, the estimated global warming would be 3.1 K if the current estimate of 0.85 W/m2 TOA net radiative heating could be confirmed. With accurate long-term measurements of TOA radiation, the analysis method suggested by this study provides a great potential in the

  4. Potential Evaporation Computation through an Unstressed Surface Energy Balance and its Sensitivity to Climate Change Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs; Polcher, Jan; Tuzet, Andrée; Laval, Katia

    2013-04-01

    , the first 2 approximations generally underestimate the trends yielded by USEB, resulting in a lower sensitivity. However, Rowher's equation provides higher ones, confirming the role of the VPD in ETP's sensitivity to climate change.

  5. Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.; Gregg, W. W.

    2014-01-01

    Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which

  6. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  7. Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleuning, Matthias; Fründ, Jochen; Schweiger, Oliver; Welk, Erik; Albrecht, Jörg; Albrecht, Matthias; Beil, Marion; Benadi, Gita; Blüthgen, Nico; Bruelheide, Helge; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Dehling, D. Matthias; Dormann, Carsten F.; Exeler, Nina; Farwig, Nina; Harpke, Alexander; Hickler, Thomas; Kratochwil, Anselm; Kuhlmann, Michael; Kühn, Ingolf; Michez, Denis; Mudri-Stojnić, Sonja; Plein, Michaela; Rasmont, Pierre; Schwabe, Angelika; Settele, Josef; Vujić, Ante; Weiner, Christiane N.; Wiemers, Martin; Hof, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks. PMID:28008919

  8. Position-sensitive transition edge sensor modeling and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammock, Christina E-mail: chammock@milkyway.gsfc.nasa.gov; Figueroa-Feliciano, Enectali; Apodaca, Emmanuel; Bandler, Simon; Boyce, Kevin; Chervenak, Jay; Finkbeiner, Fred; Kelley, Richard; Lindeman, Mark; Porter, Scott; Saab, Tarek; Stahle, Caroline

    2004-03-11

    We report the latest design and experimental results for a Position-Sensitive Transition-Edge Sensor (PoST). The PoST is motivated by the desire to achieve a larger field-of-view without increasing the number of readout channels. A PoST consists of a one-dimensional array of X-ray absorbers connected on each end to a Transition Edge Sensor (TES). Position differentiation is achieved through a comparison of pulses between the two TESs and X-ray energy is inferred from a sum of the two signals. Optimizing such a device involves studying the available parameter space which includes device properties such as heat capacity and thermal conductivity as well as TES read-out circuitry parameters. We present results for different regimes of operation and the effects on energy resolution, throughput, and position differentiation. Results and implications from a non-linear model developed to study the saturation effects unique to PoSTs are also presented.

  9. Titan Chemistry: Results From A Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Eric; West, R. A.; Friedson, A. J.; Oyafuso, F.

    2008-09-01

    We present results from a 3-dimesional global climate model of Titan's atmosphere and surface. This model, a modified version of NCAR's CAM-3 (Community Atmosphere Model), has been optimized for analysis of Titan's lower atmosphere and surface. With the inclusion of forcing from Saturn's gravitational tides, interaction from the surface, transfer of longwave and shortwave radiation, and parameterization of haze properties, constrained by Cassini observations, a dynamical field is generated, which serves to advect 14 long-lived species. The concentrations of these chemical tracers are also affected by 82 chemical reactions and the photolysis of 21 species, based on the Wilson and Atreya (2004) model, that provide sources and sinks for the advected species along with 23 additional non-advected radicals. In addition, the chemical contribution to haze conversion is parameterized along with the microphysical processes that serve to distribute haze opacity throughout the atmosphere. References Wilson, E.H. and S.K. Atreya, J. Geophys. Res., 109, E06002, 2004.

  10. Agriculture production’s sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Aronson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa in general has been approximately 2% hotter and at least 6% drier over the ten years between 1997 and 2006 compared to the 1970s. The use of water has also increased greatly over this same period. By 2000, 98.6% of that year’s surface water yield and 41% of the annual utilisable potential of ground water was allocated to use. Irrigation agriculture, comprising 60% of total consumption, is by far the largest single consumer of water. Given these climatic and water use changes as a backdrop, we employed a panel data econometric model to estimate how sensitive the nation’s agriculture may be to changes in rainfall. Net agricultural income in the provinces, contributing 10% or more to total production of both field crops and horticulture, is likely to be negatively affected by a decline in rainfall, especially rain-fed agriculture. For the country as a whole, each 1% decline in rainfall is likely to lead to a 1.1% decline in the production of maize (a summer grain and a 0.5% decline in winter wheat. These results are discussed with respect to both established and emerging farmers, and the type of agriculture that should be favoured or phased out in different parts of the country, in view of current and projected trends in climate, increasing water use, and declining water availability.

  11. Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timbal, B.; Mahfouf, J.F.; Royer, J.F. [Centre National de Recherches Meteoroloques, Toulouse (France)

    1995-12-31

    The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised the question of its impact on climate. Anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is an extra source in the complex carbon cycle involving the ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere. Three-dimensional general circulation models have been used world-wide over the last decade to perform climate research. Complete global change experiments need to couple an atmospheric model with an oceanic one and a thermodynamical and dynamical sea-ice model. Therefore realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas increases can be studied. These computer-time expensive experiments cannot be reproduced as often as necessary. A commonly used approach is to perform time-slice experiments at the equilibrium with an atmospheric GCM forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Several sensitivity experiments using higher resolutions or more sophisticated physical parameterisations can be performed. As the resolution increases, one can study the result over special areas of interest, such as Europe

  12. Debris flow sensitivity to glacial-interglacial climate change - supply vs transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Arcy, Mitch; Roda Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.

    2016-04-01

    Numerical models suggest that small mountain catchment-alluvial fan systems might be sensitive to climate changes over glacial-interglacial cycles, and record these palaeoclimate signals in the sedimentology of their deposits. However, these models are still largely untested, and the propagation of climate signals through simple sediment routing systems remains contentious. Here, we present detailed sedimentological records from 8 debris flow fan systems in Owens Valley, California, that capture the past ~ 120 ka of deposition. We identify a strong and sustained relationship between deposit grain size and palaeoclimate records over a full glacial-interglacial cycle, with significantly coarser-grained deposits found in warm and dry periods. Our data show that these systems are highly sensitive to climate with a rapid response timescale of debris flows are triggered by surface runoff during intense storms, we interpret that enhanced runoff rates in warm and stormy conditions are responsible for entraining larger clasts during debris flow initiation. This implies that debris flow fans might record signals of past storm intensity. Our study utilises field sedimentology and focuses on short transport distances (~ 10 km) and climate changes over ~ 1-100 ka timespans, but could additionally have important implications for how eroding landscapes might respond to future warming scenarios. We address the importance of extreme events (such as storms and debris flows) for determining how sensitive landscapes are to climate variability.

  13. Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth’s climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, T.; Leirvik, T.; Lohmann, U.; Phillips, P. C. B.; Wild, M.

    2016-04-01

    Earth’s climate sensitivity has long been subject to heated debate and has spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of its most likely range. Recent observational studies have produced estimates of transient climate sensitivity, that is, the global mean surface temperature increase at the time of CO2 doubling, as low as 1.3 K (refs ,), well below the best estimate produced by global climate models (1.8 K). Here, we present an observation-based study of the time period 1964 to 2010, which does not rely on climate models. The method incorporates observations of greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature and radiation from approximately 1,300 surface sites into an energy balance framework. Statistical methods commonly applied to economic time series are then used to decompose observed temperature trends into components attributable to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and surface radiation. We find that surface radiation trends, which have been largely explained by changes in atmospheric aerosol loading, caused a cooling that masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations over the past half-century. In consequence, the method yields a higher transient climate sensitivity (2.0 +/- 0.8 K) than other observational studies.

  14. Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely

  15. Regionalisation of climate change sensitive forest development types for potential afforestation areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Anke; Fürst, Christine; Frank, Susanne; Koschke, Lars; Makeschin, Franz

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes how to use sectoral planning information from forestry to predict and up-scale information on Climate Change sensitive forest development types for potential afforestation areas. The method was developed and applied in the frame of the project RegioPower with focus on the case study region 'Oberes Elbtal-Osterzgebirge'. The data for our study was taken from forest management planning at level of the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. Here, a silvicultural system is implemented, which describes best practices to develop our actual forests into Climate Change adapted forest development types. That includes the selection of drought resistant tree species, a broad range of tree species mixtures per eligible forest development type and the tending, harvesting and regeneration strategies to be applied. This information however, exists only for forest areas and not for areas which could be potentially afforested. The eligibility of the forest development types within the actual forest areas depends on site information, such as nutrient potential, exposition and hydrological soil parameters. The regionalisation of the forest development types to landscape scale had to be based on topographical parameters from the digital elevation model and hydrological soil parameters from soil mapping. In result, we could provide maps for regional planning and decision making with spatially explicit information on the eligible forest development types based on forest management planning information. These maps form a valuable input for testing and optimising afforestation areas with regard to improving the ability of our case study region to mitigate Climate Change effects such as water erosion or drought.

  16. Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

    2016-08-15

    Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative

  17. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaj M. Hansen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Mercury (Hg is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic followed by Europe (6% and North America (5%, with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

  18. Carbon uptake sensitivity of the North Atlantic to climate change: A model study with the Bergen Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goris, Nadine; Heinze, Christoph; Tjiputra, Jerry; Schwinger, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    The efficiency of the world's oceans to take up carbon is expected to decrease with ongoing climate change, thereby increasing the atmospheric burden of carbon. Here, the North Atlantic is a region of special interest as it is one of the most important oceanic carbon sinks, featuring an exceptionally high column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Several model studies have identified the carbon uptake of the North Atlantic as highly sensitive to climate change, but these studies are mostly global studies and are not concerned with a detailed attribution of the underlying mechanisms and their regional differences within the North Atlantic. Yet, quantifying the climate change induced CO2-uptake variability in the North Atlantic and identifying its main drivers is of high relevance for improving climate projections. In order to assess and understand the climate sensitivity of the CO2 uptake of the North Atlantic, we investigate the differences between two simulations (denoted as simulation COU and simulation BGC) carried out with the Bergen Earth System Model (BCM-C). While simulation COU features rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (based on observed records for 1850-1999 and the IPCC SRES-A2 scenario for 2000-2099) for radiation code and carbon fluxes, simulation BGC uses rising atmospheric concentrations only for the calculation of the carbon fluxes. The differences between those simulations identify climate induced changes. Our analysis confirms the important role of the North Atlantic for carbon uptake and demonstrates that this region is most sensitive to climate change (in comparison to other oceanic regions as defined in Tjiputra et al., 2010). We furthermore identify substantially different responses to climate change in different parts of the North Atlantic. Based on these differing responses, we divide the North Atlantic into 3 regions, namely the subpolar gyre region (SPG), the high latitude region (HL) and the rest of the North Atlantic (rNAT*, covering

  19. Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate Change of Precipitation Patterns via Integrated Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B. K.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on water resources is critical to ecosystems and to human well being. Most previous work has involved coupling hydrologic models to global and regional climate models. While there is impressive agreement among climate models on temperature increase, unfortunately precipitation estimates present "wildly diverging pictures" [Schiermeier, Nature 2010]. In the IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM on page 16 one sees for most of the mid-latitudes that more than 1/3 of the models disagree with the majority on even the sign of any precipitation change and significant agreement of 90% is typically only found in the polar reaches [Oreskes, Philosophy of Science 2010]. Since precipitation is the primary driver of hydrology, therefore coupling of these climate models to hydrology can only yield projections that are highly uncertain. This work instead offers basic insight into the connections between all sorts of climate possibilities and hydrology. The observational climate inputs to GSFLOW basin models have been tweaked to compute the sensitivity of hydrological components to change in many climate variables. Impacts were evaluated from individual changes from a precipitation pattern such as total amounts, event intensities, event rates, durations, frequencies, and season lengths. By considering each precipitation pattern separately, we separate the confounding factors when all are changing at the same time and can then observe the impact of each factor by itself. Sensitivities have been computed for some 20 hydrologic flow components, such as runoff, infiltration, soil ET, interflow, recharge, baseflow, and streamflows. This hydrological system is highly non-linear and so a single set of computed hydrologic sensitivity values only describes the hydrologic partitioning for a single environmental condition. For a more complete picture, hydrological sensitivities have been computed over wide ranges of climate variables, such as a warmer to a colder

  20. Sensitivity analysis of modelled responses of vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau to doubled CO2 and associated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Linjing; Liu, Xiaodong

    2016-04-01

    Increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration affect both the global climate and plant metabolism, particularly for high-altitude ecosystems. Because of the limitations of field experiments, it is difficult to evaluate the responses of vegetation to CO2 increases and separate the effects of CO2 and associated climate change using direct observations at a regional scale. Here, we used the Community Earth System Model (CESM, version 1.0.4) to examine these effects. Initiated from bare ground, we simulated the vegetation composition and productivity under two CO2 concentrations (367 and 734 ppm) and associated climate conditions to separate the comparative contributions of doubled CO2 and CO2-induced climate change to the vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results revealed whether the individual effect of doubled CO2 and its induced climate change or their combined effects caused a decrease in the foliage projective cover (FPC) of C3 arctic grass on the TP. Both doubled CO2 and climate change had a positive effect on the FPC of the temperate and tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) on the TP, but doubled CO2 led to FPC decreases of C4 grass and broadleaf deciduous shrubs, whereas the climate change resulted in FPC decrease in C3 non-arctic grass and boreal needleleaf evergreen trees. Although the combination of the doubled CO2 and associated climate change increased the area-averaged leaf area index (LAI), the effect of doubled CO2 on the LAI increase (95 %) was larger than the effect of CO2-induced climate change (5 %). Similarly, the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) were primarily sensitive to the doubled CO2, compared with the CO2-induced climate change, which alone increased the regional GPP and NPP by 251.22 and 87.79 g C m-2 year-1, respectively. Regionally, the vegetation response was most noticeable in the south-eastern TP. Although both doubled CO2 and associated climate change had a

  1. Tree Rings in the Tropics: Insights into the Ecology and Climate Sensitivity of Tropical Trees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brienen, R.J.W.; Schöngart, J.; Zuidema, P.A.

    2016-01-01

    Tree-ring studies provide important contributions to understanding the climate sensitivity of tropical trees and the effects of global change on tropical forests. This chapter reviews recent advances in tropical tree-ring research. In tropical lowlands, tree ring formation is mainly driven by season

  2. Modelled climate sensitivity of the mass balance of Morteratschgletscher and its dependence on albedo parameterization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, E.J.; Oerlemans, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the climate sensitivity of the mass balance of Morteratschgletscher in Switzerland, estimated from a two-dimensional mass balance model. Since the albedo scheme chosen is often the largest error source in mass balance models, we investigated the impact of using differe

  3. Can feedback analysis be used to uncover the physical origin of climate sensitivity and efficacy differences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Vanessa S.; Dietmüller, Simone; Ponater, Michael

    2016-12-01

    Different strengths and types of radiative forcings cause variations in the climate sensitivities and efficacies. To relate these changes to their physical origin, this study tests whether a feedback analysis is a suitable approach. For this end, we apply the partial radiative perturbation method. Combining the forward and backward calculation turns out to be indispensable to ensure the additivity of feedbacks and to yield a closed forcing-feedback-balance at top of the atmosphere. For a set of CO2-forced simulations, the climate sensitivity changes with increasing forcing. The albedo, cloud and combined water vapour and lapse rate feedback are found to be responsible for the variations in the climate sensitivity. An O3-forced simulation (induced by enhanced NOx and CO surface emissions) causes a smaller efficacy than a CO2-forced simulation with a similar magnitude of forcing. We find that the Planck, albedo and most likely the cloud feedback are responsible for this effect. Reducing the radiative forcing impedes the statistical separability of feedbacks. We additionally discuss formal inconsistencies between the common ways of comparing climate sensitivities and feedbacks. Moreover, methodical recommendations for future work are given.

  4. Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

  5. Luminescence sensitivity changes in quartz as a result of annealing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøtter-Jensen, L.; Agersnap Larsen, N.; Mejdahl, V.;

    1995-01-01

    Retrospective dosimetry using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) on quartz extracted from (for example) bricks needs to account for strong OSL sensitivity changes that are known to occur depending on the previous thermal treatment of the sample. Non-heated quartz exhibits OSL orders...... of magnitude less per unit radiation than that for heated material. The reason these temperature-induced sensitivity changes occur in quartz is presently not well understood. This phenomenon is also seen in the related area of luminescence dating in which sedimentary quartz and quartz from heated...... archaeological samples show very different OSL sensitivities. In this paper we report on studies of the effect of high temperature annealing on the OSL and phototransferred TL (PTTL) signals from sedimentary and synthetic quartz. A dramatic enhancement of both OSL and PTTL sensitivity was found especially...

  6. Subsea Permafrost Climate Modeling - Challenges and First Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodehacke, C. B.; Stendel, M.; Marchenko, S. S.; Christensen, J. H.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Nicolsky, D.

    2015-12-01

    Recent observations indicate that the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) releases methane, which stems from shallow hydrate seabed reservoirs. The total amount of carbon within the ESAS is so large that release of only a small fraction, for example via taliks, which are columns of unfrozen sediment within the permafrost, could impact distinctly the global climate. Therefore it is crucial to simulate the future fate of ESAS' subsea permafrost with regard to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. However only very few attempts to address the vulnerability of subsea permafrost have been made, instead most studies have focused on the evolution of permafrost since the Late Pleistocene ocean transgression, approximately 14000 years ago.In contrast to land permafrost modeling, any attempt to model the future fate of subsea permafrost needs to consider several additional factors, in particular the dependence of freezing temperature on water depth and salt content and the differences in ground heat flux depending on the seabed properties. Also the amount of unfrozen water in the sediment needs to be taken into account. Using a system of coupled ocean, atmosphere and permafrost models will allow us to capture the complexity of the different parts of the system and evaluate the relative importance of different processes. Here we present the first results of a novel approach by means of dedicated permafrost model simulations. These have been driven by conditions of the Laptev Sea region in East Siberia. By exploiting the ensemble approach, we will show how uncertainties in boundary conditions and applied forcing scenarios control the future fate of the sub sea permafrost.

  7. Multi-century Changes to Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Mirin, A; Wickett, M; Delire, C

    2005-02-17

    In this paper, we use a coupled climate and carbon cycle model to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to year 2300 that would occur if CO{sub 2} emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO{sub 2} reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In our simulation, the rate of emissions peak at over 30 PgC yr{sup -1} early in the 22nd century. Even at year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. In our simulations both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, our model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil-fuel carbon is ultimately released to the atmosphere.

  8. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  9. Quantifying PM2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-10-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 μg m-3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 μg m-3 (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 μg m-3 for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10-50% over the

  10. Dynamics of the coupled human-climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben; Keith, David W.; Jarvis, Andrew

    2014-07-01

    If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response. Feedback might also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. However, in addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a box-diffusion dynamic model of the climate system to understand how changing the properties of the feedback control affect the emergent dynamics of this coupled human-climate system, and evaluate these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain). This is a challenge for policy as a delayed response is needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification of natural variability, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to changes in the observed state of the climate system.

  11. Impact of climate change on Estonian coastal and inland wetlands. A summary with new results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kont, A.; Lode, E.; Ratas, U.; Rivis, R.; Tonisson, H. (Institute of Ecology, Tallinn University (EE)); Jaagus, J. (Institute of Geography, University of Tartu (EE)); Suursaar, U. (Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu (EE)); Orviku, K. (Merin Ltd, Tallinn (EE)); Endjaerv, E. (Estonian Environment Information Centre, Tallinn (EE))

    2007-07-01

    The natural environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change due to its location in a transitional zone between areas with different bioclimatic conditions. We studied the NAO index and data on temperature, moisture, wind, and sea level regimes in Estonia and the Baltic Sea region. We also looked at the relationships between meteorological forcing time series and changes in wetlands. The effects of changing climatic conditions are clearly reflected in the data from the station at Tooma mire, where we identified shorter snow-cover duration, decreased soil-frost depth and changed groundwater levels in the bog. In comparing various types of Estonian wetlands under such changing climatic conditions, we also identified greater instability in the character of coastal wetlands compared to that of the inland bogs. We found that the most marked coastal changes in Estonia result from a combination of strong storms, high sea levels induced by storm surge, ice free seas and unfrozen sediments. Finally, we also found that a significant trend in the development of seashore grasslands is the replacement of former meadows by reed beds, shrubberies or woodland. (orig.)

  12. Potential Sensitivity of Québec's Breeding Birds to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Luc DesGranges

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We examined the relationship between climatic factors and the distribution of breeding birds in southern Québec, Canada to identify the species whose distribution renders them potentially sensitive to climate change in the study area. We determined the degree of association between the distribution of 65 breeding bird species (601 presence-absence squares of the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Québec and climate variables (212 climatological stations in operation for at least 20 years over the period 1953-1984 by statistically correcting for the effects of several factors that are correlated with bird distribution. Factors considered were the nature and scale of land cover patterns that included vegetation types and landscape characterization, geographical coordinates, and elevation. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA was used to investigate the effect of climatic variables on breeding bird distribution. Independent variables accounted for a total of 29.1% of the variation in the species matrix. A very large portion of the variance explained by climate variables was shared with spatial variables, reflecting the relationships among latitude, longitude, elevation, and climate. After correcting for the effect of land cover variables, climatic variables still explained 11.4% of the variation in the species matrix, with temperature, i.e., warmer summers and milder winters, having a greater influence than precipitation, i.e., wetter summers. Of the 65 species, 14 appeared to be particularly climate-sensitive. Eight are insectivorous neotropical migrants and six species are at the northern limit of their range in the study area. The opposite is largely true for the eight others; they are practically absent from the southern part of the study area, except for the Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis, which is widespread there. The White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis is the only resident species that seemed responsive to climatic variables, i

  13. The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

    1990-01-01

    The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

  14. On the state-dependency of the equilibrium climate sensitivity during the last 5 million years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Köhler

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A still open question is how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing – the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S – is depending on background climate. We here present paleo-data based evidence on the state-dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with 3-D ice-sheet model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr. We find that the land-ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity was in similar approaches not accounted for due to previously more simplistic approximations of land-ice albedo radiative forcing being a linear function of sea level change. Important for the non-linearity between land-ice albedo and sea level is a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes.In our setup, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land-ice albedo (LI is combined, we find a state-dependency in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[CO2,LI] for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr. During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods S[CO2,LI] is on average ∼ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6–5 Myr BP the CO2 data uncertainties prevents a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land-ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[CO2,LI] was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state-change in the climate system with the wide appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land-ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar paleo data-based approaches to

  15. Recharge variability and sensitivity to climate: The example of Gidabo River Basin, Main Ethiopian Rift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abraham Mechal

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The average annual recharge for 1998–2010 reveals a remarkable decrease from the highland (410 mm/year towards the rift floor (25 mm/year. Both the spatial and temporal recharge variability is mainly controlled by the climate. In the rift floor, recharge is found to occur only when annual precipitation exceeds a threshold of approximately 800 mm. A sensitivity analysis reveals that annual recharge is very sensitive to variations in precipitation and moderately sensitive to temperature changes. The relative sensitivity increases from the highland to the rift floor across the watershed. Increases in both precipitation and temperature, as suggested by climate change projections for Ethiopia, appear to have an overall positive impact on recharge in the majority of the catchment. These findings have implications also for other catchments where recharge is spatially nonuniform and provide a basis for further investigations into the assessment of groundwater resources and their vulnerability to climate change at the watershed and sub-watershed scale.

  16. Scalable analysis tools for sensitivity analysis and UQ (3160) results.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karelitz, David B.; Ice, Lisa G.; Thompson, David C.; Bennett, Janine C.; Fabian, Nathan; Scott, W. Alan; Moreland, Kenneth D.

    2009-09-01

    The 9/30/2009 ASC Level 2 Scalable Analysis Tools for Sensitivity Analysis and UQ (Milestone 3160) contains feature recognition capability required by the user community for certain verification and validation tasks focused around sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ). These feature recognition capabilities include crater detection, characterization, and analysis from CTH simulation data; the ability to call fragment and crater identification code from within a CTH simulation; and the ability to output fragments in a geometric format that includes data values over the fragments. The feature recognition capabilities were tested extensively on sample and actual simulations. In addition, a number of stretch criteria were met including the ability to visualize CTH tracer particles and the ability to visualize output from within an S3D simulation.

  17. Land Surface Biophysical-Climate Impacts of Tropical Deforestation with Time-dependence: Sensitivity to Deforestation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, C. G.; Gurney, K. R.

    2010-12-01

    Deforestation perturbs both biophysical and carbon feedbacks on climate. However, biophysical feedbacks operate at more temporally-immediate and spatially-focused scales, and thus may be sensitive to the actual rate at which deforestation occurs rather than just to the total forest cover loss. Most of previous modeling experiments have focused on equilibrium impacts of mass instantaneous replacement of trees; but, anthropogenic deforestation evolves in time and may result in transient climatic changes which holistic assessments of land cover change impacts must be able to characterize for mitigation and adaptation initiatives to be effective. This exploratory work therefore attempts to determine if there exists a time-dependence within biophysical-climate impacts of deforestation; specifically, if indeed the rates of deforestation affect terrestrial biophysics-climate feedbacks during the period of active deforestation as well as the post-deforestation period. Described here is a method for simulating annual tropical deforestation in the fully-coupled Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) for testing biosphere-climate sensitivity to “preservation pathways.” We test two deforestation curves- one with a 10% annual tree population thinning (DFC10-PT10), and one with 1% (DFC1-PT10) - each with a preservation target of 10% tree cover. During the period of active deforestation, surface albedo, net radiation, latent heat flux and climate variables are compared for time-dependence and sensitivity to total tropical tree foliar projective cover across the tropical band, the Amazon Basin, Central Africa and Southeast Asia. The deforestation rates produce characteristic trends in biophysical variables with DFC10-PT10 resulting in rapid increase/decrease during the initial 10-30 years before a slow leveling off, while DFC1-PT10 exhibits more gradual changes. The deforestation rate is also found to have little effect on

  18. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution. There is a great interest in better understanding the geographic distribution of isoprene emission, and the interaction of the drivers that underlie its seasonal, interannual and long-term variation. Lack of process-understanding on the scale of the leaf as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or even global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future estimates of quantity and variability of isoprene emissions. Model intercomparison experiments, which for isoprene have not been performed before, can help to identify areas of largest uncertainty as well as important commonalities. Focusing on present-day climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm, with the aim to investigate the degree of between- vs. within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources, emission seasonality, and interannual variability. However, the models are all quite sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield a strong increase or decrease in total annual emissions and seasonal patterns to a degree that cannot be reconciled with today's understanding of isoprene atmospheric chemistry. A careful adaptation of individual isoprene model components is therefore required when simulations are to be

  19. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Haywood

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a co-ordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights the potential for models to underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Sensitivity tests exploring the "known unknowns" in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high-latitudes are also essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses. Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS, suggest that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS, and that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a best estimate of 1.5.

  20. Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.; Kamae, Y.; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Pickering, S. J.; Ramstein, G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Salzmann, U.; Sohl, L.; Stepanek, C.; Ueda, H.; Yan, Q.; Zhang, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

  1. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Haywood

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses. Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS, support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS, and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

  2. Climate of the last glacial maximum: sensitivity studies and model-data comparison with the LOVECLIM coupled model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Roche

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The Last Glacial Maximum climate is one of the classic benchmarks used both to test the ability of coupled models to simulate climates different from that ot the present-day and to better understand the possible range of mechanisms that could be involved in future climate change. It also bears the advantage of being one of the most well documented periods with respect to palaeoclimatic records, allowing a thorough data-model comparison. We present here an ensemble of Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations obtained with the Earth System model LOVECLIM, including coupled dynamic atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The climate obtained using standard parameter values is then compared to available proxy data for the surface ocean, vegetation, oceanic circulation and atmospheric conditions. Interestingly, the oceanic circulation obtained resembles that of the present-day, but with increased overturning rates. As this result is in contradiction with the "classic" palaeoceanographic view, we ran a range of sensitivity experiments to explore the response of the model and the possibilities for other oceanic circulation states. After a critical review of our LGM state with respect to available proxy data, we conclude that the balance between water masses obtained is consistent with the available data although the specific characteristics (temperature, salinity are not in full agreement. The consistency of the simulated state is further reinforced by the fact that the mean surface climate obtained is shown to be generally in agreement with the most recent reconstructions of vegetation and sea surface temperatures, even at regional scales.

  3. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F. [Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2000-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling for the North Sea is presented. The numerical model used for the study is the coupled ice-ocean model OPYC. In a hindcast of the years 1979 to 1993 it was forced with atmospheric forcing of the ECMWF reanalysis. The models capability in simulating the observed mean state and variability in the North Sea is demonstrated by the hindcast. Two time scale ranges, from weekly to seasonal and the longer-than-seasonal time scales are investigated. Shorter time scales, for storm surges, are not captured by the model formulation. The main modes of variability of sea level, sea-surface circulation, sea-surface temperature, and sea-surface salinity are described and connections to atmospheric phenomena, like the NAO, are discussed. T106 ''time-slice'' simulations with a ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' horizon are used to estimate the effects of a changing climate on the shelf sea ''North Sea''. The ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' changes in the surface forcing are accompanied by changes in the lateral oceanic boundary conditions taken from a global coupled climate model. For ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' the time mean sea level increases up to 25 cm in the German Bight in the winter, where 15 cm are due to the surface forcing and 10 cm due to thermal expansion. This change is compared to the ''natural'' variability as simulated in the ECMWF integration and found to be not outside the range spanned by it. The variability of sea level on the weekly-to-seasonal time-scales is significantly reduced in the scenario integration. The variability on the longer-than-seasonal time-scales in the control and scenario runs is much smaller then in the ECMWF integration. This is traced back to the use of ''time-slice'' experiments. Discriminating between locally forced changes and changes induced at the lateral oceanic boundaries of the model in the circulation and

  4. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  5. Hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity to climate warming in California's Sierra Nevada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, Sarah E; Viers, Joshua H; Mount, Jeffrey F

    2010-04-01

    This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2 degrees, 4 degrees, and 6 degrees C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds.

  6. Hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity to climate warming in California's Sierra Nevada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E Null

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2 degrees, 4 degrees, and 6 degrees C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds.

  7. Sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to sea ice salinity in a coupled global climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The impacts of the spatiotemporal variations of sea ice salinity on sea ice and ocean characteristics have not been studied in detail, as the existing climate models neglect or misrepresent this process. To address this issue, this paper formulated a parameterization with more realistic sea ice salinity budget, and examined the sensitivity of sea ice and ocean simulations to the ice salinity variations and associated salt flux into the ocean using a coupled global climate model. Results show that the inclusion of such a parameterization leads to an increase and thickening of sea ice in the Eurasian Arctic and within the ice pack in the Antarctic circumpolar region, and a weakening of the North Atlantic Deep Water and a strengthening of the Antarctic Bottom Water. The atmospheric responses associated with the ice changes were also discussed.

  8. Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J. M.; Julius, S. H.; Weaver, C. P.

    2012-03-01

    A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change.

  9. Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweiten, Michael A; Calcote, Randy R; Lynch, Elizabeth A; Hotchkiss, Sara C; Schuurman, Gregor W

    2015-10-01

    Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P climate (R² = 0.55, P change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features.

  10. Dynamics of the Coupled Human-climate System Resulting from Closed-loop Control of Solar Geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Keith, David; Jarvis, Andrew

    2014-07-08

    If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM, in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response; this would also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. This feedback creates an emergent coupled human-climate system, with entirely new dynamics. In addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a simple box-diffusion dynamic model to understand how changing feedback-control parameters and time delay affect the behavior of this coupled natural-human system, and verify these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain), but a delayed response needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to uncertain changes.

  11. Long-term climate sensitivity of an integrated water supply system: The role of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-09-15

    The assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability on water supply systems depends not only on possible variations of the resources availability, but also on the variation of the demand. In this framework, a robust estimation of direct (climate induced) and indirect (anthropogenically induced) effects of climate change is mandatory to design mitigation measures, especially in those regions of the planet where the groundwater equilibrium is strongly perturbed by exploitations for irrigation purposes. The main goal of this contribution is to propose a comprehensive model that integrates distributed crop water requirements with surface and groundwater mass balance, able to consider management rules of the water supply system. The proposed overall model, implemented, calibrated and validated for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from a surface artificial reservoir and from groundwater. The relative contributions of groundwater recharges and withdrawals to the aquifer stress have been evaluated under different climate perturbations, with emphasis on irrigation practices. Results point out that irrigated agriculture primarily affects groundwater discharge, indicating that ecosystem services connected to river base flow are particularly exposed to climate variation in irrigated areas. Moreover, findings show that the recharge both to surface and to groundwater is mainly affected by drier climate conditions, while hotter conditions have a major impact on the water demand. The non-linearity arising from combined drier and hotter conditions may exacerbate the aquifer stress by exposing it to massive sea-water intrusion.

  12. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

    2017-01-01

    There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study.

  13. Compositional Stability of the Bacterial Community in a Climate-Sensitive Sub-Arctic Peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weedon, James T.; Kowalchuk, George A.; Aerts, Rien; Freriks, Stef; Röling, Wilfred F. M.; van Bodegom, Peter M.

    2017-01-01

    The climate sensitivity of microbe-mediated soil processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling offers an interesting case for evaluating the corresponding sensitivity of microbial community composition to environmental change. Better understanding of the degree of linkage between functional and compositional stability would contribute to ongoing efforts to build mechanistic models aiming at predicting rates of microbe-mediated processes. We used an amplicon sequencing approach to test if previously observed large effects of experimental soil warming on C and N cycle fluxes (50–100% increases) in a sub-arctic Sphagnum peatland were reflected in changes in the composition of the soil bacterial community. We found that treatments that previously induced changes to fluxes did not associate with changes in the phylogenetic composition of the soil bacterial community. For both DNA- and RNA-based analyses, variation in bacterial communities could be explained by the hierarchy: spatial variation (12–15% of variance explained) > temporal variation (7–11%) > climate treatment (4–9%). We conclude that the bacterial community in this environment is stable under changing conditions, despite the previously observed sensitivity of process rates—evidence that microbe-mediated soil processes can alter without concomitant changes in bacterial communities. We propose that progress in linking soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes can be advanced by further investigating the relative importance of community composition effects versus physico-chemical factors in controlling biogeochemical process rates in different contexts.

  14. Runoff sensitivity over Asia: Role of climate variables and initial soil conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Di; Mishra, Ashok K.; Zhang, Ke

    2017-02-01

    We applied statistical and numerical modeling approach to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff (ROF) to climate variables using Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data and regional climate model (RegCM4). It was observed that ROF is more sensitive to precipitation (P) compared to other analyzed hydroclimatic variables (potential evapotranspiration (PET), 2 m air temperature (T2m), solar radiation (Rn), specific humidity (SSH), and wind speed (U), especially over India, Indochina, and south-north-northeast China semihumid-humid climate transition zones based on the higher correlation coefficient (>0.7) and elasticity (>2). The abnormal positive T2m-ROF observed over Tibetan Plateau region (TP) may be due to its high topography and cold weather regime, while positive PET-ROF over India and north China-southeast Mongolia regions can be attributed to the stronger influence of local land-atmosphere interactions. Soil moisture (SM) reflects high correlation with runoff, especially over the climate transition zones (i.e., India and Indochina-southeast China). The initial wet (dry) soil moisture (SM) anomalies lead to an increase (decrease) of ROF in each season with the hot spots mainly located in middle to high latitudes (spring), TP and northeast (summer and autumn), and Indochina (autumn) regions. Such influence can persist almost 4 months in spring while only about 1 month in autumn during dry and wet conditions. The wet condition has stronger influence at beginning but dissipates quickly, while the dry condition can last longer within the same season. The impact of initial soil temperature anomalies on ROF is weaker than SM, with the only obvious ROF changes located over south China (spring and summer) and north India (autumn).

  15. An improved lake model for climate simulations: Model structure, evaluation, and sensitivity analyses in CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary Subin

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Lakes can influence regional climate, yet most general circulation models have, at best, simple and largely untested representations of lakes. We developed the Lake, Ice, Snow, and Sediment Simulator(LISSS for inclusion in the land-surface component (CLM4 of an earth system model (CESM1. The existing CLM4 lake modelperformed poorly at all sites tested; for temperate lakes, summer surface water temperature predictions were 10–25uC lower than observations. CLM4-LISSS modifies the existing model by including (1 a treatment of snow; (2 freezing, melting, and ice physics; (3 a sediment thermal submodel; (4 spatially variable prescribed lakedepth; (5 improved parameterizations of lake surface properties; (6 increased mixing under ice and in deep lakes; and (7 correction of previous errors. We evaluated the lake model predictions of water temperature and surface fluxes at three small temperate and boreal lakes where extensive observational data was available. We alsoevaluated the predicted water temperature and/or ice and snow thicknesses for ten other lakes where less comprehensive forcing observations were available. CLM4-LISSS performed very well compared to observations for shallow to medium-depth small lakes. For large, deep lakes, the under-prediction of mixing was improved by increasing the lake eddy diffusivity by a factor of 10, consistent with previouspublished analyses. Surface temperature and surface flux predictions were improved when the aerodynamic roughness lengths were calculated as a function of friction velocity, rather than using a constant value of 1 mm or greater. We evaluated the sensitivity of surface energy fluxes to modeled lake processes and parameters. Largechanges in monthly-averaged surface fluxes (up to 30 W m22 were found when excluding snow insulation or phase change physics and when varying the opacity, depth, albedo of melting lake ice, and mixing strength across ranges commonly found in real lakes. Typical

  16. Sensitivity of direct climate forcing by atmospheric aerosols to aerosol size and composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilinis, Christodoulos; Pandis, Spyros N.; Seinfeld, John H.

    1995-09-01

    We evaluate, using a box model, the sensitivity of direct climate forcing by atmospheric aerosols for a "global mean" aerosol that consists of fine and coarse modes to aerosol composition, aerosol size distribution, relative humidity (RH), aerosol mixing state (internal versus external mixture), deliquescence/crystallization hysteresis, and solar zenith angle. We also examine the dependence of aerosol upscatter fraction on aerosol size, solar zenith angle, and wavelength and the dependence of single scatter albedo on wavelength and aerosol composition. The single most important parameter in determining direct aerosol forcing is relative humidity, and the most important process is the increase of the aerosol mass as a result of water uptake. An increase of the relative humidity from 40 to 80% is estimated for the global mean aerosol considered to result in an increase of the radiative forcing by a factor of 2.1. Forcing is relatively insensitive to the fine mode diameter increase due to hygroscopic growth, as long as this mode remains inside the efficient scattering size region. The hysteresis/deliquescence region introduces additional uncertainty but, in general, errors less than 20% result by the use of the average of the two curves to predict forcing. For fine aerosol mode mean diameters in the 0.2-0.5 μm range direct aerosol forcing is relatively insensitive (errors less than 20%) to variations of the mean diameter. Estimation of the coarse mode diameter within a factor of 2 is generally sufficient for the estimation of the total aerosol radiative forcing within 20%. Moreover, the coarse mode, which represents the nonanthropogenic fraction of the aerosol, is estimated to contribute less than 10% of the total radiative forcing for all RHs of interest. Aerosol chemical composition is important to direct radiative forcing as it determines (1) water uptake with RH, and (2) optical properties. The effect of absorption by aerosol components on forcing is found to be

  17. Sensitization to Aeroallergens in Patients with Respiratory Allergies Based on Skin-Prick Test Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G Bejtullahu

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was to identify the most common aeroallergens in patients with asthma and rhinitis.Methods: The study enrolled 102 participants including 64 patients with respiratory allergies (among them 15 were clinically diagnosed as asthma patients, 41 with rhinitis, 8 were both and 38 healthy controls. All of participants were subject of skin prick tests (SPT with series of common allergenic extracts. Sera from all participants were tested for total IgE and eosinophil count. To measure airflow limitation and reversibility in asthma patients the pulmonary function testing were carried out.Results: M/F ratio was 1:1.6 in patients and 1:0.7 in control group with mean age 28.88 year (SD 13.16; range 6 – 55year and 20.47 respectively (SD 1.16; range 19-23 year. The most common risk factors in these patients were total IgE more than 100 IU/ml, eosinophils above 4% and positive family history of atopy. Skin prick testing results showed prevalence rates for allergen groups in this manner: house dust mites 81.3 %, pollens 57.8 %, animal dandruff12.5% and moulds 4.9%. Polysensitization was common in 51.6% of all sensitized patients being positive to more than one group of allergens.Conclusion: House dust mites are the main sensitizing allergens among our allergic patients as well as healthy controls. Next in importance, in all participants, are grasses. This pattern of prevalence was expected based on herbal geography, climate and specially lifestyle. It was also compatible with the results from studies carried out in places with the same habitat.

  18. Reliability, sensitivity, and uncertainty of reservoir performance under climate variability in basins with different hydrogeologic settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Mateus

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated how reservoir performance varied across different hydrogeologic settings and under plausible future climate scenarios. The study was conducted in the Santiam River basin, OR, USA, comparing the North Santiam basin (NSB, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam basin (SSB, with low permeability, little groundwater storage, and rapid runoff response. We applied projections of future temperature and precipitation from global climate models to a rainfall-runoff model, coupled with a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis, to project future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. The performance of reservoir operations was evaluated as the reliability in meeting flood management, spring and summer environmental flows, and hydropower generation objectives. Despite projected increases in winter flows and decreases in summer flows, results suggested little evidence of a response in reservoir operation performance to a warming climate, with the exception of summer flow targets in the SSB. Independent of climate impacts, historical prioritization of reservoir operations appeared to impact reliability, suggesting areas where operation performance may be improved. Results also highlighted how hydrologic uncertainty is likely to complicate planning for climate change in basins with substantial groundwater interactions.

  19. The relationship between team climate and interprofessional collaboration: Preliminary results of a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agreli, Heloise F; Peduzzi, Marina; Bailey, Christopher

    2017-03-01

    Relational and organisational factors are key elements of interprofessional collaboration (IPC) and team climate. Few studies have explored the relationship between IPC and team climate. This article presents a study that aimed to explore IPC in primary healthcare teams and understand how the assessment of team climate may provide insights into IPC. A mixed methods study design was adopted. In Stage 1 of the study, team climate was assessed using the Team Climate Inventory with 159 professionals in 18 interprofessional teams based in São Paulo, Brazil. In Stage 2, data were collected through in-depth interviews with a sample of team members who participated in the first stage of the study. Results from Stage 1 provided an overview of factors relevant to teamwork, which in turn informed our exploration of the relationship between team climate and IPC. Preliminary findings from Stage 2 indicated that teams with a more positive team climate (in particular, greater participative safety) also reported more effective communication and mutual support. In conclusion, team climate provided insights into IPC, especially regarding aspects of communication and interaction in teams. Further research will provide a better understanding of differences and areas of overlap between team climate and IPC. It will potentially contribute for an innovative theoretical approach to explore interprofessional work in primary care settings.

  20. Uncertainties in simulating regional climate of Southern Africa: sensitivity to physical parameterizations using WRF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cretat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Richard, Yves [Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, CNRS UMR 5210, Universite de Bourgogne, Dijon (France); Drobinski, Philippe [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, LMD, Palaiseau (France)

    2012-02-15

    This study aims at quantifying seasonal biases of regional climate model outputs during southern African summer, against a dense in situ measurement network (daily rain-gauge and surface air temperature records, and 12 h UTC radiosondes), and uncertainties associated with some physical parameterizations. Using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Research Weather Forecast (WRF) laterally forced by ERA40 reanalysis, twenty-seven experiments configured with three schemes of cumulus (CU), planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MP), are performed at 35 km horizontal resolution during the core of a summer rainy season (December 1993 to February 1994 season) representative of the South African rainfall climatology. WRF simulates accurately seasonal large-scale rainfall patterns, as well as seasonal gradients of South African rainfall and 2-m temperature, and seasonal vertical profiles of the air temperature and humidity. However seasonal biases fluctuate strongly from an experiment to another, denoting considerable uncertainties generated by the physical package. Rainfall amounts are the most sensitive parameter to the tested schemes. Their geography, intensity, and intraseasonal characteristics are predominantly sensitive to CU schemes, and much less to PBL and MP schemes. Some CU-PBL combinations produce additive effects, which can dramatically either reduce or increase biases. Satisfactory configurations are found for South African climate, which would not have been possible without testing numerous physical parameterizations. (orig.)

  1. Seasonality of Tropical Dry Forests and its Sensitivity to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Powers, J. S.; Becknell, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are characterized by an annual dry season of 3-6 months duration. Although TDFs account for nearly 42% by area of total tropical vegetation, their representation in current dynamic vegetation models has rarely been challenged by ground-based observations. In this study, we assimilate several unique field datasets and MODIS-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) into the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2 (ED2). The field measurements were taken at 18 forested stands in Costa Rica including annual tree-level censuses, species-level leaf trait, monthly measurements of stand litterfall and soil properties since 2008. These measurements were used to develop plant functional types (PFTs) suitable for modeling TDFs, especially in terms of their allometry, phenology, and growth rates. The model was then forced with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections for Central America to quantify the response and sensitivity of vegetation dynamics to different radiative forcing scenarios. We expect that this study will improve our knowledge of TDFs, including their phenology and sensitivity future climate change, and also has implications for TDF carbon dynamics, energy budgets and hydrological cycling.

  2. Reply: Evaluation of Climate Sensitivity to Solar Influences Is an Important Goal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foukal, Peter

    The detection of an 11-year global temperature signal by Douglass and Clader, and in other studies cited by David Douglass in his letter, is an important achievement. However, these studies assume that the driver is the measured 11-year variation in total solar irradiance. They do not attempt to estimate the possible contributions of the equally well-measured 11-year variations in solar ultraviolet flux, and in solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. Both of these variable solar influences are under study as possible drivers of 11-year global temperature variation [e.g., Haigh, 1996; Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997]. These suggested mechanisms operate differently from the direct coupling of total irradiance to climate. So it may be premature to claim that the sensitivity to total irradiance has been measured. Also, to the extent that the sign of possible climate influences from solar UV [e.g., Shindell et al.; 1999] and plasma output variations remains model-dependent, it seems uncertain in what sense the reported sensitivities represent limits.

  3. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consum

  4. Sensitivity of climate effects of black carbon in China to its size distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xingxing; Liu, Hongnian; Liu, Jane J.; Zhuang, Bingliang

    2017-03-01

    The climate effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols are sensitive to BC size distributions and this sensitivity over China is studied using a regional climate model, namely RIEMS2.0. A new size-resolved scheme is developed based on observational data. The simulated BC concentrations with the new scheme are better compared with the observation than the previous uniform scheme, which is likely to overestimate BC concentrations, radiative forcings, and warming effects in many regions of China due to its simple assumption on BC size. The simulation with the size-resolved scheme suggests a reduction of the all-sky radiative forcing of BC at the top of atmosphere (TOA) by 0-0.25 W m- 2 over the most study domain. Correspondingly, the warming effect of BC is weakened by - 0.04 to - 0.16 K over most parts of South China and North China. The difference in BC-induced precipitation between the two schemes varies irregularly from region to region, ranging from - 2.8 to 2.8 mm d- 1. With the size-resolved scheme, the BC radiative properties and the climate effects are reassessed and the means (ranges) over the study domain are summarized as follows. The annual mean surface concentration of BC is 0.88 μg/m3, ranging from 1 to 8 μg/m3 over North China and Central China. The all-sky and clear-sky radiative forcings of BC at the TOA are 0.43 and 0.39 W/m2, respectively. Over most parts of Southwest China, Central China, and North China, the BC warming effect prevails, with enhanced temperature of 0.04-0.28 K. BC aerosols usually enhance precipitation in South China and North China, ranging from 0.40 to 2.8 mm d- 1.

  5. Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Lindvall, Jenny; Ekman, Annica M. L.; Svensson, Gunilla

    2016-11-01

    Here, we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model to investigate the plume development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war between emerging third-world nuclear powers. We simulate a standard scenario where 5 Tg of black carbon (BC) is emitted over 1 day in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. However, it is likely that the emissions from the fires ignited by bomb detonations include a substantial amount of particulate organic matter (POM) and that they last more than 1 day. We therefore test the sensitivity of the aerosol plume and climate system to the BC/POM ratio (1:3, 1:9) and to the emission length (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). We find that in general, an emission length of 1 month substantially reduces the cooling compared to the 1-day case, whereas taking into account POM emissions notably increases the cooling and the reduction of precipitation associated with the nuclear war during the first year following the detonation. Accounting for POM emissions increases the particle size in the short-emission-length scenarios (1 day/1 week), reducing the residence time of the injected particle. While the initial cooling is more intense when including POM emission, the long-lasting effects, while still large, may be less extreme compared to the BC-only case. Our study highlights that the emission altitude reached by the plume is sensitive to both the particle type emitted by the fires and the emission duration. Consequently, the climate effects of a nuclear war are strongly dependent on these parameters.

  6. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S. [Univ. of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, Lethbridge, Alberta (Canada)

    2008-06-15

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter {mu} {+-} 1{sigma}), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha{sup -1}{center_dot}year{sup -1}. This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat

  7. Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin - Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcanti, I. F. A.; Carril, A. F.; Penalba, O. C.; Grimm, A. M.; Menéndez, C. G.; Sanchez, E.; Cherchi, A.; Sörensson, A.; Robledo, F.; Rivera, J.; Pántano, V.; Bettolli, L. M.; Zaninelli, P.; Zamboni, L.; Tedeschi, R. G.; Dominguez, M.; Ruscica, R.; Flach, R.

    2015-04-01

    Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962-2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979-2001, with higher frequency in the south.

  8. Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Larriviere, Jack C.; From, Andrew S.

    2014-01-01

    Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

  9. Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans: equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Osland

    Full Text Available Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1 total aboveground biomass; (2 leaf biomass; (3 stem plus branch biomass; and (4 leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

  10. Sensitivity of the Arctic Climate to Leads in a Coupled Atmosphere-Mixed Layer Ocean Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, Stephen J.

    1995-02-01

    The thermodynamic sea ice code in a coupled atmosphere-mixed layer ocean GCM has been altered to allow the presence of open water within an ice pack (leads) and a prescribed turbulent oceanic heat flux at the ice bottom. Two experiments with the GCM are then performed: one with leads included and one without. A comparison between the two model runs is presented, in addition to a comparison between observations and the simulation with leads. Selected sea ice and atmospheric variables in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere are analyzed to assess the sensitivity of these climatic components to the presence of leads and to identify feedback mechanisms that are introduced by leads.The inclusion of leads causes Northern Hemispheric sea ice concentration to decrease in every season, with year-round statistically significant reductions at the highest latitude band (81°N). Using the improved sea ice code, the model's simulation of sea ice concentration in the central Arctic is consistent with observations in every season. Simulated summertime sea ice concentration at 81°N averages 93.8%, which agrees well with observations. There is a pronounced longitudinal variation to the lead fraction in summer, with the smallest values (0.01) neat the Canadian Archipelago and the largest (0.25) north of the East Siberian Sea. Consistent with observations, the model produces wintertime turbulent sensible heat fluxes over leads that are one to two orders of magnitude larger than over adjacent sea ice and of the opposite sign. Annual solar radiation absorption by leads in the central Arctic is 1.8 times as large as over adjacent sea ice, resulting in a summertime shortwave energy gain of over 2.5 W m2 at 8 1°N compared to the model run without leads.The inclusion of leads causes thicker sea ice in every season, because the very rapid ice growth rate in the leads is translated into enhanced accretion at the bottom of adjacent sea ice once a prescribed minimum lead fraction is reached

  11. 75 FR 8925 - Pressure Sensitive Plastic Tape from Italy: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Changed...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ... International Trade Administration Pressure Sensitive Plastic Tape from Italy: Preliminary Results of... pressure sensitive plastic tape from Italy pursuant to section 751(b) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended... review request. See Pressure Sensitive Plastic Tape from Italy: Notice of Initiation of Antidumping...

  12. Results of an Institutional LGBT Climate Survey at an Academic Medical Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chester, Sean D; Ehrenfeld, Jesse M; Eckstrand, Kristen L

    2014-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to characterize the climate and culture experienced by lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) employees and students at one large academic medical center. An anonymous, online institutional climate survey was used to assess the attitudes and experiences of LGBT employees and students. There were 42 LGBT and 14 non-LGBT survey participants. Results revealed that a surprisingly large percentage of LGBT individuals experienced pressure to remain "closeted" and were harassed despite medical center policies of non-discrimination. Continuing training, inclusive policies and practices, and the development of mechanisms to address LGBT-specific harassment are necessary for improving institutional climate.

  13. Sensitivity of worst-case strom surge considering influence of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya

    2016-04-01

    There are two standpoints when assessing risk caused by climate change. One is how to prevent disaster. For this purpose, we get probabilistic information of meteorological elements, from enough number of ensemble simulations. Another one is to consider disaster mitigation. For this purpose, we have to use very high resolution sophisticated model to represent a worst case event in detail. If we could use enough computer resources to drive many ensemble runs with very high resolution model, we can handle these all themes in one time. However resources are unfortunately limited in most cases, and we have to select the resolution or the number of simulations if we design the experiment. Applying PGWD (Pseudo Global Warming Downscaling) method is one solution to analyze a worst case event in detail. Here we introduce an example to find climate change influence on the worst case storm-surge, by applying PGWD to a super typhoon Haiyan (Takayabu et al, 2015). 1 km grid WRF model could represent both the intensity and structure of a super typhoon. By adopting PGWD method, we can only estimate the influence of climate change on the development process of the Typhoon. Instead, the changes in genesis could not be estimated. Finally, we drove SU-WAT model (which includes shallow water equation model) to get the signal of storm surge height. The result indicates that the height of the storm surge increased up to 20% owing to these 150 years climate change.

  14. Climate sensitivity due to increased CO2: experiments with a coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A.

    1989-06-01

    A version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research community climate model — a global, spectral (R15) general circulation model — is coupled to a coarse-grid (5° latitude-] longitude, four-layer) ocean general circulation model to study the response of the climate system to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Three simulations are run: one with an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 (from 330 to 660 ppm), another with the CO2 concentration starting at 330 ppm and increasing linearly at a rate of 1% per year, and a third with CO2 held constant at 330 pm. Results at the end of 30 years of simulation indicate a globally averaged surface air temperature increase of 1.6° C for the instantaneous doubling case and 0.7°C for the transient forcing case. Inherent characteristics of the coarse-grid ocean model flow sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics and higher-than-observed SSTs and reduced sea-ice extent at higher latitudes] produce lower sensitivity in this model after 30 years than in earlier simulations with the same atmosphere coupled to a 50-m, slab-ocean mixed layer. Within the limitations of the simulated meridional overturning, the thermohaline circulation weakens in the coupled model with doubled CO2 as the high-latitude ocean-surface layer warms and freshens and westerly wind stress is decreased. In the transient forcing case with slowly increasing CO2 (30% increase after 30 years), the zonal mean warming of the ocean is most evident in the surface layer near 30° 50° S. Geographical plots of surface air temperature change in the transient case show patterns of regional climate anomalies that differ from those in the instantaneous CO2 doubling case, particularly in the North Atlantic and northern European regions. This suggests that differences in CO2 forcing in the climate system are important in CO2 response in regard to time-dependent climate anomaly regimes. This confirms earlier studies with simple climate models

  15. Enhanced sensitivity of a mountain bog to climate change as a delayed effect of road construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. von Sengbusch

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Trees of Pinus rotundata (bog pine characterise many bogs in the mid-altitude mountains of central Europe (Switzerland, East and South Germany, Czech Republic. The research described here focuses on recent changes in the growth of bog pine on the Ennersbacher Moor, a mountain mire in the Black Forest (south-west Germany. An increase in the cover of bog pine is usually caused by drainage and subsequent drawdown of the water table. However, this bog has not been drained or directly disturbed in any other way. One possible explanation is that a road constructed in 1983 along one margin of the bog has diverted part of its water supply. Even though the road was designed to conduct potentially salt-contaminated drainage water away from the bog, its construction did not cause an immediate vegetation response in the 1980s and 1990s. Therefore, I hypothesise that it enhanced the sensitivity of the bog to climatic stress, predisposing it to a succession that was eventually triggered by a series of drought years in 2009–2011. Data collected near the centre of the bog over the period 1998–2014 indicate not only a distinct change in the relationship between height and trunk circumference of the trees, but also an increase of dwarf shrub cover and changes in the composition of Sphagnum communities. Although the pH of near-surface water may have increased slightly over this period, pH and EC values remain within typical ranges for raised bogs in the Black Forest. Examination of peat profiles reveals that the peat is more highly humified now than it was in 2002, and water table records from 2012–2014 show a greater amplitude of fluctuation than water table data collected in 1998–2001. Even though its mean level is only 105 mm below the ground surface, the water table is now observed to fall rapidly to depths of at least 350 mm during both wet and dry summers. Mapping surface (mesotopography and flow lines from the adjacent slope shows that the

  16. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  17. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allyson L Carroll

    Full Text Available Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood

  18. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  19. A Novel Method for Analyzing and Interpreting GCM Results Using Clustered Climate Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D. J.; Oglesby, R. J.

    2003-12-01

    A high-performance parallel clustering algorithm has been developed for analyzing and comparing climate model results and long time series climate measurements. Designed to identify biases and detect trends in disparate climate change data sets, this tool combines and simplifies large temporally-varying data sets from atmospheric measurements to multi-century climate model output. Clustering is a statistical procedure which provides an objective method for grouping multivariate conditions into a set of states or regimes within a given level of statistical tolerance. The groups or clusters--statistically defined across space and through time--possess centroids which represent the synoptic conditions of observations or model results contained in each state no matter when or where they occurred. The clustering technique was applied to five business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Three fields of significance (surface temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture) were clustered from 2000 through 2098. Our analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The same analysis subsequently applied to the ensemble as a whole demonstrates the consistency and variability of trends from each ensemble member. The patterns of cluster changes can be used to show predicted variability in climate on global and continental scales. Novel three-dimensional phase space representations of these climate regimes show the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time. Any single spot on the globe will exist in one of these climate regimes at any single point in time, and by incrementing time, that same spot will trace out a trajectory or orbit among these climate regimes in phase space. When a

  20. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

    OpenAIRE

    Beldring, Stein; Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Førland, Eirik J.; Roald, Lars A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or perturbation ...

  1. Climate Change Challenges of Managing Quality of Drinking Water: Survey Results from Utilities in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekstrom, J.; Bedsworth, L. W.

    2015-12-01

    Scientists have established that climate change threatens sources of drinking water through many different pathways, both in terms of quantity and quality. Recognizing water utilities will face the brunt of these impacts, this study seeks to better understand the disconnect between the projections produced and the needs of utilities on-the-ground. As part of the first stage of the three-year study, this presentation reports results of a statewide survey evaluating how far along water utilities in California are along in preparing for the projected climate change impacts on water quality, the range in respondents' perspectives (and concerns) of climate change on water quality, and how the state's four-year drought is already presenting treatment challenges. On-going case studies are investigating the needs and capacity of utilities to prepare for and adapt to the projected water quality impacts from increasing extreme events and how or whether climate scientists can help meet these needs.

  2. Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ18O: ice core data, orbital and increased CO2 climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Swingedouw

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 years ago. The IPSL-CM4 model produces a remarkably linear relationship between TOA incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship to be explored. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows calculation of a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4‰ per °C during warmer-than-present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO2, increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears half as large as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. It may, however, be model-dependent, as indicated by

  3. Sensitivity of lake ice regimes to climate change in the Nordic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebre, S.; Boissy, T.; Alfredsen, K.

    2014-08-01

    A one-dimensional process-based multi-year lake ice model, MyLake, was used to simulate lake ice phenology and annual maximum lake ice thickness for the Nordic region comprising Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries. The model was first tested and validated using observational meteorological forcing on a candidate lake (Lake Atnsjøen) and using downscaled ERA-40 reanalysis data set. To simulate ice conditions for the contemporary period of 1961-2000, the model was driven by gridded meteorological forcings from ERA-40 global reanalysis data downscaled to a 25 km resolution using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA). The model was then forced with two future climate scenarios from the RCA driven by two different general circulation models (GCMs) based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B. The two climate scenarios correspond to two future time periods namely the 2050s (2041-2070) and the 2080s (2071-2100). To take into account the influence of lake morphometry, simulations were carried out for four different hypothetical lake depths (5 m, 10 m, 20 m, 40 m) placed at each of the 3708 grid cells. Based on a comparison of the mean predictions in the future 30-year periods with the control (1961-1990) period, ice cover durations in the region will be shortened by 1 to 11 weeks in 2041-2070, and 3 to 14 weeks in 2071-2100. Annual maximum lake ice thickness, on the other hand, will be reduced by a margin of up to 60 cm by 2041-2070 and up to 70 cm by 2071-2100. The simulated changes in lake ice characteristics revealed that the changes are less dependent on lake depths though there are slight differences. The results of this study provide a regional perspective of anticipated changes in lake ice regimes due to climate warming across the study area by the middle and end of this century.

  4. Sensitivity of lake ice regimes to climate change in the nordic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gebre

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A one-dimensional process-based multi-year lake ice model, MyLake, was used to simulate lake ice phenology and annual maximum lake ice thickness for the Nordic region comprising Fennoscandia and the Baltic countries. The model was first tested and validated using observational meteorological forcing on a candidate lake (Lake Atnsjøen and using downscaled ERA-40 reanalysis data set. To simulate ice conditions for the contemporary period of 1961–2000, the model was driven by gridded meteorological forcings from ERA-40 global reanalysis data downscaled to a 25 km resolution using the Rossby Center Regional Climate Model (RCA. The model was then forced with two future climate scenarios from the RCA driven by two different GCMs based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The two climate scenarios correspond to two future time periods namely the 2050s (2041–2070 and the 2080s (2071–2100. To take into account the influence of lake morphometry, simulations were carried out for four different hypothetical lake depths (5 m, 10 m, 20 m, 40 m placed at each of the 3708 grid cells. Based on a comparison of the mean predictions in the future 30 yr periods with the control (1961–1990 period, ice cover durations in the region will be shortened by 1 to 11 weeks in 2041–2070, and 3 to 14 weeks in 2071–2100. Annual maximum lake ice thickness, on the other hand, will be reduced by a margin of up to 60 cm by 2041–2070 and up to 70 cm by 2071–2100. The simulated changes in lake ice characteristics revealed that the changes are less dependent on lake depths though there are slight differences. The results of this study provide a~regional perspective of anticipated changes in lake ice regimes due to climate warming across the study area by the middle and end of this century.

  5. Sensitivity of sediment contamination in the Elbe Estuary to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleisinger, Carmen; Haase, Holger; Hentschke, Uwe; Schubert, Birgit

    2015-04-01

    As a result of the projected climate-induced changes of temperature and precipitation (IPCC, 2007), an increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods, storm surges or of extended periods of low river discharge is to be expected. An increase of flood events would result in an additional input of contaminated sediments from the inland. Contaminated particles will be transported along the rivers to the estuaries and consequently, a deterioration of the quality of estuarine particulate matter may occur. In addition, a sea level rise is predicted to occur along with global warming. In case of sea level rise or more frequent low river discharge situations, the upstream transport of slightly contaminated sediments of marine origin may be intensified, and cause decreasing concentrations of contaminants in particulate matter. The contamination of particulate matter plays an important role for the ecological quality of water bodies and has accordingly to be taken into account in the sediment management of navigable waters. This study focuses on the assessment of potential climate-induced and other man-made changes of particle-bound contaminant concentrations in the estuary of the river Elbe and the resulting challenges for sediment management in this navigable waterway. The estimation of climate-induced changes of contaminant concentrations in estuarine particulate matter was based on results of projections on the fluvial particulate matter input into the Elbe estuary in the near (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) and on assumed extreme changes of such inputs. A mixing model using the concentrations of selected contaminants as indicators for marine and fluvial particulate matter was applied. Distinct changes of contaminant concentrations were found only for the far future and with the assumed extreme particulate matter inputs in the inner Elbe estuary. The worst-case scenario indicated that concentrations of some organochlorine contaminants in

  6. Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, D. M.; Mackie, D. C.; Wei, M.

    The Grand Forks aquifer, located in south-central British Columbia, Canada was used as a case study area for modeling the sensitivity of an aquifer to changes in recharge and river stage consistent with projected climate-change scenarios for the region. Results suggest that variations in recharge to the aquifer under the different climate-change scenarios, modeled under steady-state conditions, have a much smaller impact on the groundwater system than changes in river-stage elevation of the Kettle and Granby Rivers, which flow through the valley. All simulations showed relatively small changes in the overall configuration of the water table and general direction of groundwater flow. High-recharge and low-recharge simulations resulted in approximately a +0.05 m increase and a -0.025 m decrease, respectively, in water-table elevations throughout the aquifer. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect higher-than-peak-flow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of 2.72 and 3.45 m, respectively. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect lower-than-baseflow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of -0.48 and -2.10 m, respectively. Current observed water-table elevations in the valley are consistent with an average river-stage elevation (between current baseflow and peak-flow stages). L'aquifère de Grand Forks, situé en Colombie britannique (Canada), a été utilisé comme zone d'étude pour modéliser la sensibilité d'un aquifère à des modifications de la recharge et du niveau de la rivière, correspondant à des scénarios envisagés de changement climatique dans cette région. Les résultats font apparaître que les variations de recharge de l'aquifère pour différents scénarios de changement climatique, modélisées pour des conditions de régime permanent, ont un impact sur le système aquifère beaucoup plus faible que les changements du niveau des

  7. Operation of Marine Diesel Engines on Biogenic Fuels: Modification of Emissions and Resulting Climate Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Petzold, A.; P. Lauer; Fritsche, U.; Hasselbach, J.; Lichtenstern, M.; Schlager, H.; Fleischer, F.

    2011-01-01

    The modification of emissions of climate-sensitive exhaust compounds such as CO2, NOx, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter from medium-speed marine diesel engines was studied for a set of fossil and biogenic fuels. Applied fossil fuels were the reference heavy fuel oil (HFO) and the low-sulfur marine gas oil (MGO); biogenic fuels were palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and animal fat. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the production of biogenic fuels were treated by means of a fue...

  8. The sensitivity of southeastern United States climate to varying irrigation vigor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2016-07-01

    Four regional climate model runs centered on the Southeast United States (SEUS) assuming a crop growing season of May through October are irrigated at 25% (IRR25), 50% (IRR50), 75% (IRR75), and 100% (IRR100) of the root zone porosity to assess the sensitivity of the SEUS climate to irrigation. A fifth run, assuming no irrigation (CTL), is used as the basis for comparison. Across all IRR runs, it is found that there is a general reduction in seasonal mean precipitation over the irrigated cells relative to CTL. This manifests as an increase in dry (0-1 mm/d) days and reduction in > 1 mm/d rainfall events. A comparative moisture budget reveals that area-averaged precipitation over the irrigated cells displays a reduction in precipitation and runoff in IRR100 with a weaker reduction in IRR25. This is despite an increase in vertically integrated moisture convergence and local evaporation. We find that irrigation increases the lower atmospheric stability, which in turn reduces the convective rainfall over the irrigated areas. Seasonally averaged temperatures reduce over irrigated areas, with the intensity of the reduction increasing with irrigation vigor. This is largely attributed to a repartitioning of sensible heat flux into latent heat flux. There is also, however, a small increase of heat flow to deeper soil layers. Precipitation ahead of transient cold fronts is also reduced by irrigation as they pass over irrigated cells, owing to the increased stability in the lower troposphere. The intensity of this precipitation reduction becomes more intense as irrigation vigor increases. Lastly, heat waves in the SEUS are reduced in intensity over irrigated cells.

  9. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Angelen, J.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; Lhermitte, S.; Fettweis, X.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Meijgaard, E.; Smeets, C.J.P.P.

    2012-01-01

    We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover,

  10. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, New York (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  11. The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: sensitivity to climate change as revealed by energy-balance modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1991-01-01

    The sensitivity of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change is studied with an energy-balance model of the ice/snow surface, applied at 200 m elevation intervals for four characteristic regions of the ice sheet. Solar radiation, longwave radiation, turbulent heat fluxes and refr

  12. Some GCM simulation results on present and possible future climate in northern Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1995-12-31

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change initiated in 1993 a project entitled `Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations`. The two basic aims of this project were to assess the skill of current general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating present climate at a regional level and to intercompare the regional response of various GCMs to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. The public data base established for the comparison included simulation results from several modelling centres, but most of the data were available in the form of time-averaged seasonal means only, and important quantities like precipitation were totally lacking in many cases. This presentation summarizes the intercomparison results for surface air temperature and sea level pressure in northern Europe. The quality of the control simulations and the response of the models to increased CO{sub 2} are addressed in both winter (December-February) and summer (June-August)

  13. Validation of SWAT simulated streamflow in the Eastern Nile and sensitivity to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Mengistu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological model SWAT was calibrated with daily station based precipitation and temperature data for the whole Eastern Nile basin including the three subbasins: the Blue Nile, Baro Akobo and Tekeze. The daily and monthly streamflow was calibrated and validated at six outlets in the three different subbasins. The model performed very well in simulating the monthly variability of the Eastern Nile streamflow while comparison to daily data revealed a more diverse performance for the extreme events.

    Of the Eastern Nile average annual rainfall it was estimated that around 60% is lost through evaporation and estimated runoff coefficients were 0.24, 0.30 and 0.18 for Blue Nile, Baro Akobo and Tekeze subbasins, respectively. About half to two-thirds of the runoff could be attributed to surface runoff while the remaining contributions were from groundwater.

    The annual streamflow sensitivity to changes in precipitation and temperature differed among the basins and the dependence of the response on the strength of the changes was not linear. On average the annual streamflow responses to a change in precipitation with no temperature change was 19%, 17%, and 26% per 10% change in precipitation while the average annual streamflow responses to a change in temperature and no precipitation change was −4.4% K−1, −6.4% K−1, and −1.3% K−1 for Blue Nile, Baro Akobo and Tekeze river basin, respectively.

    While we show the Eastern Nile to be very sensitive to precipitation changes, using 47 temperature and precipitation scenarios from 19 AOGCMs participating in IPCC AR4 we estimated the future change in streamflow to be strongly dependent on the choice of climate model as the climate models disagree on both the strength and the direction of future precipitation changes. Thus, no clear conclusions can be made about the future changes in Eastern Nile streamflow.

  14. Radiative forcing and feedback by forests in warm climates - a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Port, Ulrike; Claussen, Martin; Brovkin, Victor

    2016-07-01

    We evaluate the radiative forcing of forests and the feedbacks triggered by forests in a warm, basically ice-free climate and in a cool climate with permanent high-latitude ice cover using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. As a paradigm for a warm climate, we choose the early Eocene, some 54 to 52 million years ago, and for the cool climate, the pre-industrial climate, respectively. To isolate first-order effects, we compare idealised simulations in which all continents are covered either by dense forests or by deserts with either bright or dark soil. In comparison with desert continents covered by bright soil, forested continents warm the planet for the early Eocene climate and for pre-industrial conditions. The warming can be attributed to different feedback processes, though. The lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback is stronger for the early Eocene climate than for the pre-industrial climate, but strong and negative cloud-related feedbacks nearly outweigh the positive lapse-rate and water-vapour feedback for the early Eocene climate. Subsequently, global mean warming by forests is weaker for the early Eocene climate than for pre-industrial conditions. Sea-ice related feedbacks are weak for the almost ice-free climate of the early Eocene, thereby leading to a weaker high-latitude warming by forests than for pre-industrial conditions. When the land is covered with dark soils, and hence, albedo differences between forests and soil are small, forests cool the early Eocene climate more than the pre-industrial climate because the lapse-rate and water-vapour feedbacks are stronger for the early Eocene climate. Cloud-related feedbacks are equally strong in both climates. We conclude that radiative forcing by forests varies little with the climate state, while most subsequent feedbacks depend on the climate state.

  15. Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    González Paula LM

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998, trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent

  16. Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC. In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period.

    In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this

  17. A methodology for model-based greenhouse design: Part 3, sensitivity analysis of a combined greenhouse climate-crop yield model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanthoor, B.H.E.; Henten, van E.J.; Stanghellini, C.; Visser, de P.H.B.

    2011-01-01

    Greenhouse design is an optimisation problem that might be solved by a model-based greenhouse design method. A sensitivity analysis of a combined greenhouse climate-crop yield model of tomato was done to identify the parameters, i.e. greenhouse design parameters, outdoor climate and climate set-poin

  18. The sensitivity of the climate response to the magnitude and location of freshwater forcing: last glacial maximum experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, Esther C.

    2010-01-01

    Proxy records indicate that the locations and magnitudes of freshwater forcing to the Atlantic Ocean basin as iceberg discharges into the high-latitude North Atlantic, Laurentide meltwater input to the Gulf of Mexico, or meltwater diversion to the North Atlantic via the St. Lawrence River and other eastern outlets may have influenced the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and global climate. We have performed Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations with the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) in which the magnitude of the freshwater forcing has been varied from 0.1 to 1 Sv and inserted either into the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. In these glacial freshening experiments, the less dense freshwater provides a lid on the ocean water below, suppressing ocean convection and interaction with the atmosphere above and reducing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This is the case whether the freshwater is added directly to the area of convection south of Greenland or transported there by the subtropical and subpolar gyres when added to the Gulf of Mexico. The AMOC reduction is less for the smaller freshwater forcings, but is not linear with the size of the freshwater perturbation. The recovery of the AMOC from a "slow" state is ˜200 years for the 0.1 Sv experiment and ˜500 years for the 1 Sv experiment. For glacial climates, with large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and reduced greenhouse gases, the cold subpolar North Atlantic is primed to respond rapidly and dramatically to freshwater that is either directly dumped into this region or after being advected from the Gulf of Mexico. Greenland temperatures cool by 6-8 °C in all the experiments, with little sensitivity to the magnitude, location or duration of the freshwater forcing, but exhibiting large seasonality. Sea ice is important for explaining the responses. The Northern Hemisphere high latitudes are slow to recover. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean show a

  19. Climate Change Resulting from Lunar Impact in the Year 1178 AD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chapman D. W.

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In June of the year 1178, an impact was observed on the Moon. Within a few years, Europe experienced a climatic event known as the Little Ice Age. Calculations of the reduction in sunlight due to dust in high earth orbit are consistent with the historical temperature decrease. Other past temperature reductions may have resulted from similar impacts on the Moon.

  20. Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

    2016-01-01

    Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

  1. 中国冰川系统对气候变化响应的敏感性分析%Sensitivity analysis of glacier systems to climate warming in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王欣; 谢自楚; 李巧媛; 王淑红; 程磊

    2008-01-01

    Data of 44 glacier systems in China used in this paper were obtained from Chinese Glacier Inventories and the meteorological data were got from Meteorological Atlas of Plateau of west China. Based on the statistical analysis and functional model simulation results of the 44 glacier systems in China, the glacier systems were divided into extremely-sensitive glacier system, semi-sensitive glacier system, extremely-steady glacier system and semi-steady glacier system in terms of glacier system's level of water-energy exchange, rising gradient of the equilibrium line altitudes and retreating rate of area to climate warming, their median size and vertical span distribution, and their runoff characteristics to climate warming. Furthermore,the functional model of glacier system to climate warming was applied in this paper to predict the average variation trends of the 4 types of glacier systems, which indicate that different sensitivity types of glacier systems respond to the climate warming differently.

  2. What Lies beneath Seemingly Positive Campus Climate Results: Institutional Sexism, Racism, and Male Hostility toward Equity Initiatives and Liberal Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaccaro, Annemarie

    2010-01-01

    This article presents qualitative results from a campus climate study at one predominately white university. Data analysis uncovered "what lies beneath" a seemingly positive campus climate. Gender differences in survey responses suggest that men and women experienced the climate in vastly different ways. Additionally, lack of deep diversity…

  3. Projected impact of climate change in the North and Baltic Sea. Results from dynamical downscaling of global CMIP climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröger, Matthias; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Sein, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    Climate models have predicted strongest climate change impact for the mid/high lattiude areas. Despite their importance, shelves seas (which are supposed to account for more than 20% of global marine primary production and for up to 50% of total marine carbon uptake) are not adequately resolved in climate models. In this study, the global ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC has been setup with an enhanced resolution over the NW European shelf (~10 km in the southern North Sea). For a realistic representation of atmosphere-ocean interactions the regional model REMO has been implemented. Thus, this model configuration allows a physically consistent simulation of climate signal propagation from the North Atlantic over the North Sea into the Baltic Sea since it interactively simulates mass and energy fluxes between the three basins. The results indicate substantial changes in hydrographic and biological conditions for the end of the 21st Century. A freshening by about 0.75 psu together with a surface warming of ~2.0 K and associated circulation changes in and outside the North Sea reduce biological production on the NW European shelf by ~35%. This reduction is twice as strong as the reduction in the open ocean. The underlying mechanism is a spatially well confined stratification feedback along the shelf break and the continental slope which reduces the winter mixed layer by locally more than 200 m compared to current conditions. As a consequence winter nutrient supply from the deep Atlantic declines between 40 and 50%. In addition to this, the volume transport of water and salt into the North Sea will slightly reduce (~10%) during summer. At the end of the 21st Century the North Sea appears nearly decoupled from the deep Atlantic. The projected decline in biological productivity and subsequent decrease of phytoplankton (by averaged 25%) will probably negatively affect the local fish stock in the North Sea. In the Baltic Sea the climate

  4. Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Yihui; SHI Xueli; LIU Yiming; LIU Yan; LI Qingquan; QIAN Yongfu; MIAO Manqian; ZHAI Guoqing; GAO Kun

    2006-01-01

    A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.

  5. Process based model sheds light on climate sensitivity of Mediterranean tree-ring width

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Touchan

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We use the process-based VS (Vaganov-Shashkin model to investigate whether a regional Pinus halepensis tree-ring chronology from Tunisia can be simulated as a function of climate alone by employing a biological model linking day length and daily temperature and precipitation (AD 1959–2004 from a climate station to ring-width variations. We check performance of the model on independent data by a validation exercise in which the model's parameters are tuned using data for 1982–2004 and the model is applied to generate tree-ring indices for 1959–1981. The validation exercise yields a highly significant positive correlation between the residual chronology and estimated growth curve (r=0.76 p<0.0001, n=23. The model shows that the average duration of the growing season is 191 days, with considerable variation from year to year. On average, soil moisture limits tree-ring growth for 128 days and temperature for 63 days. Model results depend on chosen values of parameters, in particular a parameter specifying a balance ratio between soil moisture and precipitation. Future work in the Mediterranean region should include multi-year natural experiments to verify patterns of cambial-growth variation suggested by the VS model.

  6. Assessment of Potential Yield andClimate Change Sensitivity of Peanut Crop in Cagayan Valley, Philippines using DSSAT Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderama, O. F.

    2013-12-01

    Peanut is a major upland crop in Cagayan Valley and a leguminous crop that requires less water and therefore, considered an important crop in improving productivity of upland and rainfed areas. However, little information is available on the potential productivity of the crop and analysis on the production constraints including climate change sensitivity. This study was aimed to determine yield potential and production constraints of peanut crop in Cagayan Valley through the use of Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) simulation modeling; analyze yield gaps between simulated and actual yield levels and to provide decision support to further optimize peanut production under climate change condition. Site of experiment for model calibration and validation was located on-station at Isabela State University, Echague, Isabela. Rainfall and other climatic variables were monitored using a HOBO weather station (Automatic Weather Station) which is strategically installed inside experimental zone.The inputs required to run the CSM model include information on soil and weather conditions, crop management practices and cultivar specific genetic coefficients. In the first step,a model calibration was conducted to determine the cultivar coefficients for certain peanut cultivar that are normally grown in Cagayan Valley. Crop growth and yield simulation modeling was undertaken using the Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) for small seeded peanut (Pn9). An evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-peanut model was performed with data sets from peanut experiment conducted from December 2011 to April 2012. The model was evaluated in the estimation of potential yield of peanut under rainfed condition and low-nitrogen application. Yield potential for peanut limited only by temperature and solar radiation and no-water and nutrient stress, ranged from 3274 to 4805 kg per hectare for six planting dates (October 1, October 15, November 1, November 15

  7. Long-term change in the sensitivity of tree-ring growth to climate forcing in Larix decidua.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrer, Marco; Urbinati, Carlo

    2006-01-01

    Tree rings are widely used long-term proxy data which, if combined with long-term instrumental climate records, can provide excellent information on global climate variability. This research aimed to determine whether interannual climate-growth responses in Alpine treeline forests are stationary over time. We used tree-ring width chronologies of Larix decidua (European larch) from 17 sites and monthly temperatures and precipitation data for the period 1800-1999. Climate-growth relationships were assessed with correlation and response functions, and their stationarity and consistency over time were measured using moving correlation. Tree-ring chronologies showed similar interannual variations over the last two centuries, suggesting that the same climatic factors synchronously limited growth at most sites. The most sensitive variables showed significant transient responses varying within the time period, indicating a possible deviation from the uniformitarian principle applied to dendroclimatology. If these findings are confirmed in future studies on other species and in other regions, we suggest that time-dependent variables should be taken into account to avoid overestimation of treeline advance, future forest carbon storage in temperature-limited environments and inaccurate reconstruction of past climate variability.

  8. Final Report for Collaborative Project: Sensitivity of Atmospheric Parametric Formulations to Regional Mesh Refinement in Global Climate Simulations Using CESM-HOMME

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neale, Richard B. [University Corporation For Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-12-01

    In this project we analyze climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in order to determine the modeled response and sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Simple aqua-planet configurations were used to provide a clean comparison of the response to resolution in CESM. This enables us to easily examine all aspects of the model sensitivity to resolution including mean quantities, variability and physical parameterization tendencies: the chief reflection of resolution sensitivity. An extension to the global resolution sensitivity study is the examination of regional grid refinement where resolution changes are prescribed in a single global simulation. We examine the relevance of the global resolution sensitivity results as applied to these regional refinement simulations. In particular we examine how variations in the grid resolution, centered on different parts of the globe, lead to differences in the parameterized response and the potential to generate residual circulations as a result. Given the potential to generate this resolution sensitivity we examine simple modifications to the parameterized physics that are able to moderate any residual circulations. Finally, we transfer the framework to the standard AMIP configuration to examine the resolution sensitivity in the presence of compounding effects such as land-sea distributions, orography and seasonal variation.

  9. Reasons for the variability of the climate sensitivity parameter regarding spatially inhomogeneous ozone perturbation; Ursachen der Variabilitaet des Klimasensitivitaetsparameters fuer raeumlich inhomogene Ozonstoerungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stuber, N.

    2003-07-01

    A reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is a condition precedent for implementing the framework convention on climate change. ''Metrics'' allow for a comparison of different emissions with regard to their potential effects on global climate and, hence, are a prerequisite for political decisions. Currently ''radiative forcing'' is the most common metric: Global, annual mean radiative forcing resulting from some perturbation of the climate system is proportional to equilibrium surface temperature response. The coefficient of proportionality, {lambda}, is called the ''climate sensitivity parameter''. However, several studies have indicated that for spatially inhomogeneous perturbations {lambda} can no longer be regarded as a constant. This doctoral thesis examines the reasons for the non-linear relationship between radiative forcing and climate response. The response to several idealized ozone perturbations has been analysed. The equilibrium response of some radiatively relevant parameters features a characteristic signature, implying that the respective feedback mechanisms act quite differently in the various experiments. Accordingly, equality of radiative forcing is not sufficient to guarantee comparability of the gross effect of all feedback mechanisms. Analysis shows that the variability of {lambda} is largely due to the very different strength of stratospheric water vapor and sea-ice albedo feedback for the various experiments. (orig.)

  10. A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI. The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet.

    A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  11. A new coupled ice sheet-climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model, that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI. The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet.

    A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  12. Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanowicz, Renata J.; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Debele, Sisay E.; Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Hisdal, Hege; Lawrence, Deborah; Meresa, Hadush K.; Napiórkowski, Jarosław J.; Osuch, Marzena; Strupczewski, Witold G.; Wilson, Donna; Wong, Wai Kwok

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish-Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight "twinned" catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021-2050) and the far-future (2071-2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.

  13. Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelung, B.; Moreno, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights

  14. Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for the Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM Version 2.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Wu, Tongwen; Huang, Anning; Fang, Yongjie

    2015-07-15

    In this study, we apply an efficient sampling approach and conduct a large number of simulations to explore the sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, including the climatological state and interannual variability, to eight parameters related to the cloud and precipitation processes in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). Our results show that BCC_AGCM2.1 has large biases in simulating the ASM precipitation. The precipitation efficiency and evaporation coefficient for deep convection are the most sensitive parameters in simulating the ASM precipitation. With optimal parameter values, the simulated precipitation climatology could be remarkably improved, e.g. increased precipitation over the equator Indian Ocean, suppressed precipitation over the Philippine Sea, and more realistic Meiyu distribution over Eastern China. The ASM precipitation interannual variability is further analyzed, with a focus on the ENSO impacts. It shows the simulations with better ASM precipitation climatology can also produce more realistic precipitation anomalies during El Niño decaying summer. In the low-skill experiments for precipitation climatology, the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies are most significant over continents (vs. over ocean in observation) in the South Asian monsoon region. More realistic results are derived from the higher-skill experiments with stronger anomalies over the Indian Ocean and weaker anomalies over India and the western Pacific, favoring more evident easterly anomalies forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming and stronger Indian Ocean-western Pacific tele-connection as observed. Our model results reveal a strong connection between the simulated ASM precipitation climatological state and interannual variability in BCC_AGCM2.1 when key parameters are perturbed.

  15. The East African Rift System and the impact of orographic changes on regional climate and the resulting aridification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommerfeld, Anja; Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-09-01

    Several proxy data indicate an aridification of the East African climate during the Neogene, which might be influenced by the orographic changes of the East African Rift System (EARS) induced by tectonic forcing during the last 20 million years. To investigate the impact of the orography and especially of the rifts, the regional climate model CCLM is used, covering the EARS with Lake Victoria in the centre of the model domain. CCLM is driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and applied with a double-nesting method resulting in a very high spatial resolution of 7 km. The resolution clearly shows the shoulders and rifts of the western and eastern branch of the EARS and the Rwenzoris within the western branch. To analyse the orographic influence on climate, a new technique of modifying the orography is used in this sensitivity study. The shoulders of the branches are lowered and the rifts are elevated, resulting in a smoothed orography structure with less altitude difference between the shoulders and rifts. The changes in 2 m-temperature are very local and associated with the changes in the orography. The vertically integrated moisture transport is characterised by less vortices, and its zonal component is increased over the branches. The resulting amount of precipitation is mainly decreased west of the western branch and increased in the rift of the western branch. In the eastern branch, however, the changes in the amount of precipitation are not significant. The changes in the precipitation and temperature patterns lead to a shift of biomes towards a vegetation coverage characterised by more humid conditions in the northern part of the model domain and more arid conditions in the South. Thus, the aridification found in the proxy data can be attributed to the orographic changes of the rifts only in the northern model domain.

  16. Land-atmosphere interactions and climate change: Recent results and new perspectives (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hirschi, M.; Mittelbach, H.; Mueller, B.; Mystakidis, S.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M.

    2013-12-01

    Land-atmosphere interactions play a key role in the climate system. In particular, soil moisture-climate interactions have been shown to affect the occurrence of extreme events in both present and future (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010). This presentation will provide an overview on recent results highlighting the impact of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks on hot extremes (e.g. Hirschi et al. 2010, Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Seneviratne et al. 2013). Furthermore, it will also address new findings in the area of soil moisture-precipitation and land albedo-climate feedbacks (Guillod et al. 2013, Davin et al. 2013). The representation of these feedbacks in current climate models will be discussed, based on analyses of CMIP5 simulations. We will especially highlight systematic biases found in some key relationships underlying these feedbacks (e.g. Mueller and Seneviratne 2013). Finally, we will address the question of terrestrial climate engineering through targeted modifications of the land surface. References: Davin, E.L., S.I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, and T. Wang, 2013: Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Submitted. Guillod, B., et al., 2013: Land surface controls on afternoon precipitation diagnosed from observational data: Uncertainties, confounding factors and the possible role of interception storage. Manuscript in preparation. Hirschi, M., S.I. Seneviratne, V. Alexandrov, F. Boberg, C. Boroneant, O.B. Christensen, H. Formayer, B. Orlowsky, and P. Stepanek, 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geoscience, 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne 2013: Systematic land climate and evapotranspiration biases in CMIP5

  17. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Jones

    Full Text Available One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  18. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  19. Greenland Ice Sheet influence on Last Interglacial climate: global sensitivity studies performed with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pfeiffer

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available During the Last Interglacial (LIG, 130–115 kiloyear before present, the northern high latitudes experienced higher temperatures than those of the late Holocene with a notably lower Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS. However, the impact of a reduced GIS on the global climate has not yet been well constrained. In this study, we quantify the contribution of the GIS to LIG warmth by performing various sensitivity studies, employing the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, with a focus on height and extent of the GIS. In order to asses the effects of insolation changes over time and for a comparison of LIG climate with the current interglacial, we perform transient simulations covering the whole LIG and Holocene. We analyze surface air temperature (SAT and separate the contribution of different forcings to LIG warmth. The strong Northern Hemisphere warming is mainly caused by increased summer insolation. Reducing the height and extent of the GIS leads to a warming of several degrees Celcius in the northern and southern high latitudes during local winter. In order to evaluate the performance of our LIG simulations, we additionally compare the simulated SAT anomalies with marine and terrestrial proxy-based LIG temperature anomalies. Our model results are in good agreement with proxy records with respect to the pattern, but underestimate the reconstructed temperatures. We are able to reduce the mismatch between model and data by taking into account the potential seasonal bias of the proxy record and the uncertainties in the dating of the proxy records for the LIG thermal maximum. The seasonal bias and the uncertainty of the timing are estimated from our own transient model simulations. We note however that our LIG simulations are not able to reproduce the full magnitude of temperature changes indicated by the proxies, suggesting a potential misinterpretation of the proxy records or deficits of our model.

  20. Testing the Climate Sensitivity of Mountain Hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) Near the Southern Limit of Its Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appleton, S.; St George, S.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the climate sensitivity of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr.) near the southern limit of its range, tests the stability of its climate-tree relations over the last few decades, and explores its potential as a hydroclimatic proxy for Crater Lake National Park. We collected tree cores at seven locations around the caldera rim, focusing on hemlock growing at higher elevations (2000-2400 masl). The median length of all ring-width series is 283 years, and the oldest hemlock sample extends back to C.E. 1450. Several types of anatomical anomalies, including frost rings, traumatic resin ducts, false rings, and light late-wood bands were observed within the specimens, the most common feature being a false ring in C.E. 1810. Each set of standardized ring-width measurements has a strong common signal, with between-tree correlations (r-bar) ranging from 0.31 to 0.49. Preliminary analysis suggests hemlock growth across the park is strongly and inversely related to total cool-season precipitation, and is also influenced positively (albeit more weakly) by mean summer temperature. Most sites are significantly and negatively correlated with total December-to-February precipitation (r = -0.41) and total precipitation from December to August (r = -0.48). Compared to other ring-width records exhibiting similar negative responses to winter precipitation, these hemlocks appear to track that specific signal quite clearly and, as a result, these data may be suitable to reconstruct past changes in cool-season moisture in Crater Lake National Park and across the broader southern Cascades.

  1. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  2. Climate Change and Increased Irrigation Demands: What Is Left for Hydropower Generation? Results from Two Semi-Arid Basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor Haakon Bakken

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we have modelled the effect of climate change and increased irrigation withdrawals on the available water for hydropower production in two semi-arid river basins, i.e., Kizilirmak (Turkey and Devoll (Albania, and the role of the reservoirs. The combined effect of climate change and extended irrigation withdrawals will overall lead to reduced runoff in the rivers, according to our simulations. The changes will be most dramatic at Kizilirmak, reducing the water available for hydropower production. The presence of the reservoirs will lead to extended water use/losses due to the provision of regulated flow, enabling larger irrigation withdrawals and increasing the evaporative losses from the reservoir surfaces. Comparing the water consumption losses at Kizilirmak, the irrigation losses are in the range of 2–4 times larger than the gross evaporation losses from reservoir surfaces. The reservoirs at Devoll will improve water availability for hydropower production during low flow periods, and the upstream irrigation represents presently a low risk to the downstream power producers. As the results are sensitive to specific river basin characteristics and the assumptions made, the results cannot be generalized to other river basins without taking these specifics into consideration.

  3. Does Education Plus Action Lead to Leadership on Climate? Preliminary Results from the ACE Leadership Development Longitudinal Survey Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, R. K.; Qusba, L.; Lappe, M.; Flora, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Through education and leadership development, Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) is building a generation of confident and capable youth driving climate solutions now throughout their lives. In 2011-12, a random sample of 2,800 high school students across the country was surveyed before and after seeing the ACE Assembly on climate science and solutions. The survey showed that the ACE Assembly resulted in a 27% increase in climate science knowledge scores, with 59% of students increasing their intentions to take action on climate and a doubling of the number of students talking to parents and peers about climate change. Students were also compared to the Global Warming's Six Americas classification of Americans' views on climate. Following the ACE Assembly, 60% of students were alarmed or concerned about climate change. Building off these results, in 2014 ACE began to assess the results of its leadership development program that follows the ACE Assembly. The goal of this survey project is to measure ACE's long-term impact on students' college and career pathways, civic engagement and climate action. Preliminary results show that a majority of students in ACE's leadership development program are alarmed about global warming and are having conversations about global warming. A majority of these students also feel confident in their ability to lead a climate-related campaign in their school and community. These students will continue to be surveyed through 2015.

  4. Climate-sensitive feedbacks between hillslope processes and fluvial erosion in sediment-driven incision models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skov, Daniel S.; Egholm, David L.

    2016-04-01

    Surface erosion and sediment production seem to have accelerated globally as climate cooled in the Late Cenozoic, [Molnar, P. 2004, Herman et al 2013]. Glaciers emerged in many high mountain ranges during the Quaternary, and glaciation therefore represents a likely explanation for faster erosion in such places. Still, observations and measurements point to increases in erosion rates also in landscapes where erosion is driven mainly by fluvial processes [Lease and Ehlers (2013), Reusser (2004)]. Flume experiments and fieldwork have shown that rates of incision are to a large degree controlled by the sediment load of streams [e.g. Sklar and Dietrich (2001), Beer and Turowski (2015)]. This realization led to the formulation of sediment-flux dependent incision models [Sklar and Dietrich (2004)]. The sediment-flux dependence links incision in the channels to hillslope processes that supply sediment to the channels. The rates of weathering and soil transport on the hillslopes are processes that are likely to respond to changing temperatures, e.g. because of vegetation changes or the occurrence of frost. In this study, we perform computational landscape evolution experiments, where the coupling between fluvial incision and hillslope processes is accounted for by coupling a sediment-flux-dependent model for fluvial incision to a climate-dependent model for weathering and hillslope sediment transport. The computational experiments first of all demonstrate a strong positive feedback between channel and hillslope processes. In general, faster weathering leads to higher rates of channel incision, which further increases the weathering rates, mainly because of hillslope steepening. Slower weathering leads to the opposite result. The experiments also demonstrate, however, that the feedbacks vary significantly between different parts of a drainage network. For example, increasing hillslope sediment production may accelerate incision in the upper parts of the catchment, while at

  5. Relating health and climate impacts to grid-scale emissions using adjoint sensitivity modeling for the Climate and Clean Air Coalition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henze, D. K.; Lacey, F.; Seltzer, M.; Vallack, H.; Kuylenstierna, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Anenberg, S.; Sasser, E.; Lee, C. J.; Martin, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) was initiated in 2012 to develop, understand and promote measures to reduce short lived climate forcers such as aerosol, ozone and methane. The Coalition now includes over 30 nations, and as a service to these nations is committed to providing a decision support toolkit that allows member nations to explore the benefits of a range of emissions mitigation measures in terms of the combined impacts on air quality and climate and so help in the development of their National Action Plans. Here we will present recent modeling work to support the development of the CCAC National Action Plans toolkit. Adjoint sensitivity analysis is presented as a means of efficiently relating air quality, climate and crop impacts back to changes in emissions from each species, sector and location at the grid-scale resolution of typical global air quality model applications. The GEOS-Chem adjoint model is used to estimate the damages per ton of emissions of PM2.5 related mortality, the impacts of ozone precursors on crops and ozone-related health effects, and the combined impacts of these species on regional surface temperature changes. We show how the benefits-per-emission vary spatially as a function of the surrounding environment, and how this impacts the overall benefit of sector-specific control strategies. We present initial findings for Bangladesh, as well as Mexico, Ghana and Colombia, some of the first countries to join the CCAC, and discuss general issues related to adjoint-based metrics for quantifying air quality and climate co-benefits.

  6. Building America Residential System Research Results: Achieving 30% Whole House Energy Savings Level in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Building Industry Research Alliance (BIRA); Building Science Consortium (BSC); Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB); Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC); IBACOS; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

    2006-08-01

    The Building America program conducts the system research required to reduce risks associated with the design and construction of homes that use an average of 30% to 90% less total energy for all residential energy uses than the Building America Research Benchmark, including research on homes that will use zero net energy on annual basis. To measure the program's progress, annual research milestones have been established for five major climate regions in the United States. The system research activities required to reach each milestone take from 3 to 5 years to complete and include research in individual test houses, studies in pre-production prototypes, and research studies with lead builders that provide early examples that the specified energy savings level can be successfully achieved on a production basis. This report summarizes research results for the 30% energy savings level and demonstrates that lead builders can successfully provide 30% homes in Cold Climates on a cost-neutral basis.

  7. Permafrost carbon-climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koven, Charles D; Lawrence, David M; Riley, William J

    2015-03-24

    Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon whose stability is contingent on remaining frozen. With future warming, these soils may release carbon to the atmosphere and act as a positive feedback to climate change. Significant uncertainty remains on the postthaw carbon dynamics of permafrost-affected ecosystems, in particular since most of the carbon resides at depth where decomposition dynamics may differ from surface soils, and since nitrogen mineralized by decomposition may enhance plant growth. Here we show, using a carbon-nitrogen model that includes permafrost processes forced in an unmitigated warming scenario, that the future carbon balance of the permafrost region is highly sensitive to the decomposability of deeper carbon, with the net balance ranging from 21 Pg C to 164 Pg C losses by 2300. Increased soil nitrogen mineralization reduces nutrient limitations, but the impact of deep nitrogen on the carbon budget is small due to enhanced nitrogen availability from warming surface soils and seasonal asynchrony between deeper nitrogen availability and plant nitrogen demands. Although nitrogen dynamics are highly uncertain, the future carbon balance of this region is projected to hinge more on the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and soil decomposition than on enhanced nitrogen availability for vegetation growth resulting from permafrost thaw.

  8. Climatically sensitive transfer of iron to maritime Antarctic ecosystems by surface runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodson, Andy; Nowak, Aga; Sabacka, Marie; Jungblut, Anne; Navarro, Francisco; Pearce, David; Ávila-Jiménez, María Luisa; Convey, Peter; Vieira, Gonçalo

    2017-01-01

    Iron supplied by glacial weathering results in pronounced hotspots of biological production in an otherwise iron-limited Southern Ocean Ecosystem. However, glacial iron inputs are thought to be dominated by icebergs. Here we show that surface runoff from three island groups of the maritime Antarctic exports more filterable (iron (6–81 kg km−2 a−1) than icebergs (0.0–1.2 kg km−2 a−1). Glacier-fed streams also export more acid-soluble iron (27.0–18,500 kg km−2 a−1) associated with suspended sediment than icebergs (0–241 kg km−2 a−1). Significant fluxes of filterable and sediment-derived iron (1–10 Gg a−1 and 100–1,000 Gg a−1, respectively) are therefore likely to be delivered by runoff from the Antarctic continent. Although estuarine removal processes will greatly reduce their availability to coastal ecosystems, our results clearly indicate that riverine iron fluxes need to be accounted for as the volume of Antarctic melt increases in response to 21st century climate change. PMID:28198359

  9. Sensitivity Analysis of FEAST-Metal Fuel Performance Code: Initial Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edelmann, Paul Guy [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Williams, Brian J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Yacout, Abdellatif [Argonne National Laboratories

    2012-06-27

    This memo documents the completion of the LANL milestone, M3FT-12LA0202041, describing methodologies and initial results using FEAST-Metal. The FEAST-Metal code calculations for this work are being conducted at LANL in support of on-going activities related to sensitivity analysis of fuel performance codes. The objective is to identify important macroscopic parameters of interest to modeling and simulation of metallic fuel performance. This report summarizes our preliminary results for the sensitivity analysis using 6 calibration datasets for metallic fuel developed at ANL for EBR-II experiments. Sensitivity ranking methodology was deployed to narrow down the selected parameters for the current study. There are approximately 84 calibration parameters in the FEAST-Metal code, of which 32 were ultimately used in Phase II of this study. Preliminary results of this sensitivity analysis led to the following ranking of FEAST models for future calibration and improvements: fuel conductivity, fission gas transport/release, fuel creep, and precipitation kinetics. More validation data is needed to validate calibrated parameter distributions for future uncertainty quantification studies with FEAST-Metal. Results of this study also served to point out some code deficiencies and possible errors, and these are being investigated in order to determine root causes and to improve upon the existing code models.

  10. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beldring, Stein; Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Førland, Eirik J.; Roald, Lars A.

    2008-05-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or perturbation method and an empirical adjustment procedure that reproduces observed monthly means and standard deviations for the control period. These climate scenarios were used for driving a spatially distributed version of the HBV hydrological model, yielding a set of simulations for the baseline period 1961-1990 and projections of climate change impacts on hydrological processes for the period 2071-2100. A comparison between the two methods used for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites is provided by comparing the results from the hydrological model for basins located in different parts of Norway. Projected changes in runoff are linked to changes in the snow regime. Snow cover will be more unstable and the snowmelt flood will occur earlier in the year. Increased rainfall leads to higher runoff in the autumn and winter.

  11. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beldring, Stein; Roald, Lars A. (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, PO Box 5091 Majorstua, 0301 Oslo (Norway)). e-mail: stein.beldring@nve.no; Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Foerland, Eirik J. (Norwegian Meteorological Inst., PO Box 43 Blindern, 0313 Oslo (Norway))

    2008-07-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max- Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or perturbation method and an empirical adjustment procedure that reproduces observed monthly means and standard deviations for the control period. These climate scenarios were used for driving a spatially distributed version of the HBV hydrological model, yielding a set of simulations for the baseline period 1961- 1990 and projections of climate change impacts on hydrological processes for the period 2071-2100. A comparison between the two methods used for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites is provided by comparing the results from the hydrological model for basins located in different parts of Norway. Projected changes in runoff are linked to changes in the snow regime. Snow cover will be more unstable and the snow melt flood will occur earlier in the year. Increased rainfall leads to higher runoff in the autumn and winter

  12. Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes: first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, Evgeny; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Okladinikov, Igor; Prusevich, Alex; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Description and first results of the cooperative project "Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes" recently started by SCERT IMCES and ESRC UNH are reported. The project is aimed at development of hardware and software platform prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes over the areas of mutual interest and demonstration the benefits of such collaboration that complements skills and regional knowledge across the northern extratropics. In the framework of the project, innovative approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platforms of two U.S. and Russian leading institutions involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research centers focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies by international research teams. DRC under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed by the cooperating teams' information-computational systems RIMS (http://rims.unh.edu) and CLIMATE(http://climate.scert.ru/), which are widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The project includes several major directions of research (Tasks) listed below. 1. Development of architecture and defining major hardware and software components of DRC for monitoring and projecting of regional environmental changes. 2. Development of an information database and computing software suite for distributed processing and analysis of large geospatial data hosted at ESRC and IMCES SB RAS. 3. Development of geoportal, thematic web client and web services providing international research teams with an access to "cloud" computing resources at DRC; two options will be executed: access through a basic graphical web browser and

  13. Climate change and physical disturbance manipulations result in distinct biological soil crust communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven, Blaire; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

    2015-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) colonize plant interspaces in many drylands and are critical to soil nutrient cycling. Multiple climate change and land use factors have been shown to detrimentally impact biocrusts on a macroscopic (i.e., visual) scale. However, the impact of these perturbations on the bacterial components of the biocrusts remain poorly understood. We employed multiple long-term field experiments to assess the impacts of chronic physical (foot trampling) and climatic changes (2 °C soil warming, altered summer precipitation (wetting), and combined warming and wetting) on biocrust bacterial biomass, composition, and metabolic profile. The biocrust bacterial communities adopted distinct states based on the mechanism of disturbance. Chronic trampling decreased biomass and caused small community compositional change. Soil warming had little effect on biocrust biomass or composition, while wetting resulted in an increase in cyanobacterial biomass and altered bacterial composition. Warming combined with wetting dramatically altered bacterial composition and decreased cyanobacteria abundance. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing identified four functional gene categories that differed in relative abundance among the manipulations, suggesting that climate and land use changes affected soil bacterial functional potential. This study illustrates that different types of biocrust disturbance damage biocrusts in macroscopically similar ways, but they differentially impact the resident soil bacterial communities and the community functional profile can differ depending on the disturbance type. Therefore, the nature of the perturbation and the microbial response are important considerations for management and restoration of drylands.

  14. Landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing: Results from an experimental landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Arvind; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

    2015-06-01

    Understanding how landscapes respond to climate dynamics in terms of macroscale (average topographic features) and microscale (landform reorganization) is of interest both for deciphering past climates from today's landscapes and for predicting future landscapes in view of recent climatic trends. Although several studies have addressed macro-scale response, only a few have focused on quantifying smaller-scale basin reorganization. To that goal, a series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted where a self-organized complete drainage network emerged under constant precipitation and uplift dynamics. Once steady state was achieved, the landscape was subjected to a fivefold increase in precipitation (transient state). Throughout the evolution, high-resolution spatiotemporal topographic data in the form of digital elevation models were collected. The steady state landscape was shown to possess three distinct geomorphic regimes (unchannelized hillslopes, debris-dominated channels, and fluvially dominated channels). During transient state, landscape reorganization was observed to be driven by hillslopes via accelerated erosion, ridge lowering, channel widening, and reduction of basin relief as opposed to channel base-level reduction. Quantitative metrics on which these conclusions were based included slope-area curve, correlation analysis of spatial and temporal elevation increments, and wavelet spectral analysis of the evolving landscapes. Our results highlight that landscape reorganization in response to increased precipitation seems to follow "an arrow of scale": major elevation change initiates at the hillslope scale driving erosional regime change at intermediate scales and further cascading to geomorphic changes at the channel scale as time evolves.

  15. Climate change and physical disturbance manipulations result in distinct biological soil crust communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven, Blaire; Kuske, Cheryl R; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Reed, Sasha C; Belnap, Jayne

    2015-11-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) colonize plant interspaces in many drylands and are critical to soil nutrient cycling. Multiple climate change and land use factors have been shown to detrimentally impact biocrusts on a macroscopic (i.e., visual) scale. However, the impact of these perturbations on the bacterial components of the biocrusts remains poorly understood. We employed multiple long-term field experiments to assess the impacts of chronic physical (foot trampling) and climatic changes (2°C soil warming, altered summer precipitation [wetting], and combined warming and wetting) on biocrust bacterial biomass, composition, and metabolic profile. The biocrust bacterial communities adopted distinct states based on the mechanism of disturbance. Chronic trampling decreased biomass and caused small community compositional changes. Soil warming had little effect on biocrust biomass or composition, while wetting resulted in an increase in the cyanobacterial biomass and altered bacterial composition. Warming combined with wetting dramatically altered bacterial composition and decreased Cyanobacteria abundance. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing identified four functional gene categories that differed in relative abundance among the manipulations, suggesting that climate and land use changes affected soil bacterial functional potential. This study illustrates that different types of biocrust disturbance damage biocrusts in macroscopically similar ways, but they differentially impact the resident soil bacterial communities, and the communities' functional profiles can differ depending on the disturbance type. Therefore, the nature of the perturbation and the microbial response are important considerations for management and restoration of drylands.

  16. Prospects for climate change on three Polynesian outliers in Solomon Islands: Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Kjeld; May, Wilhelm; Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses future prospects for climate change, impacts and adaptation of three small islands in Solomon Islands. Based on a review of literature a climate change scenario is suggested and with point of departure in a survey of three characteristics of the islands – bio-physical conditi...... is likely to be insufficient, especially in the case of Ontong Java (which is an atoll), and economic, social, institutional and political factors, external to the islands, will be of increasing importance....

  17. The effects of climatic change on crop production. Results of a five-year research project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mela, T.; Carter, T.; Hakala, K.; Kaukoranta, T.; Laurila, H.; Niemi, K.; Saarikko, R.; Tiilikkala, K. [Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, Jokioinen (Finland); Hannukkala, A. [Agricultural Research Centre, Rovaniemi (Finland). Lapland Research Station

    1996-12-31

    The aim of this research project, funded jointly by SILMU and by the Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, was to evaluate the possible effects of changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration on the growth, development and yield of field crops and on crop pests and diseases in Finland. The study focused on two cereal crops (spring wheat and spring barley), a grass species (meadow fescue), some common pathogens of cereals and potato, insect pests of small fruits and nematode risk of potato and sugar beet. The results of this study indicate the following effects on crop production of the `best guess` climate change anticipated for Finland by 2050: A lengthening of the potential growing season of 3-5 weeks. A northward expansion of about 250-500 km in suitability for cereal production. Increased yields of adapted spring cereals. New, longer-season cultivars would benefit from both higher temperatures and elevated CO{sub 2}. Improved potential for the cultivation of higher-yielding winter sown cereals. Increased grass yields due to a lengthening growing season and increased growth rates, assuming that water and nutrient limitations are minor. However, there is a possibility of reduced winter hardening under higher autumn temperatures and an increased risk of winter damage. Potential for the successful cultivation of new crops like maize in southern Finland. Increased potential for yield losses due to crop pests and diseases under climatic warming. The range of many species is expected to expand northwards, additional generations of some species would develop successfully, and new species may become established in Finland. The research is continuing as part of a new European Community project, and will explore a wider range of crop types, focusing on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk at national scale

  18. Shallow groundwater thermal sensitivity to climate change and land cover disturbances: derivation of analytical expressions and implications for stream temperature projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Kurylyk

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures, and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for coldwater fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warming of shallow groundwater. The temperature of shallow groundwater is particularly important for the thermal regimes of groundwater-dominated streams and rivers. Also, other recent stream temperature studies have investigated how land surface perturbations, such as wildfires or timber harvesting, can influence stream temperatures by changing surface heat fluxes, but these studies have typically not considered how these surface disturbances can also alter shallow groundwater temperatures and consequent streambed heat fluxes. In this study, several analytical solutions to the one-dimensional unsteady advection–diffusion equation for subsurface heat transport are employed to investigate the timing and magnitude of groundwater warming due to seasonal and long term variability in land surface temperatures. Novel groundwater thermal sensitivity formulae are proposed that accommodate different surface warming scenarios. The thermal sensitivity formulae demonstrate that shallow groundwater will warm in response to climate change and other surface perturbations, but the timing and magnitude of the warming depends on the rate of surface warming, subsurface thermal properties, aquifer depth, and groundwater velocity. The results also emphasize the difference between the thermal sensitivity of shallow groundwater to short term (e.g. seasonal and long term (e.g. multi-decadal land surface temperature variability, and thus demonstrate the limitations of using short term air and water

  19. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-11-15

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

  20. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration

  1. Climatic factors influence leaf structure and thereby affect the ozone sensitivity of Ipomoea nil 'Scarlet O'Hara'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Bárbara B; Alves, Edenise S

    2014-11-01

    Phenotypic plasticity of the leaves can interfere with the plant sensitivity to ozone (O3) toxic effect. This study aimed to assess whether the leaf structure of Ipomoea nil changes due to climatic variations and whether these changes affect the species' sensitivity. Field exposures, in different seasons (winter and spring) were made. The leaves that developed during the winter were thinner, with a lower proportion of photosynthetic tissues, higher proportion of intercellular spaces and lower density and stomatal index compared to those developed during the spring. The temperature and relative humidity positively influenced the leaf thickness and stomatal index. The visible injuries during winter were positively correlated with the palisade parenchyma thickness and negatively correlated with the percentage of spongy parenchyma; during the spring, the symptoms were positively correlated with the stomatal density. In conclusion, the leaf structure of I. nil varied among the seasons, interfering in its sensitivity to O3.

  2. Current analogues of future climate indicate the likely response of a sensitive montane tropical avifauna to a warming world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S Anderson

    Full Text Available Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species' environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species' actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species' responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT. Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp. than negative (7 spp. displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m. Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0

  3. Sensitivity of a regional climate model to land surface parameterization schemes for East Asian summer monsoon simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenkai; Guo, Weidong; Xue, Yongkang; Fu, Congbin; Qiu, Bo

    2016-10-01

    Land surface processes play an important role in the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) system. Parameterization schemes of land surface processes may cause uncertainties in regional climate model (RCM) studies for the EASM. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of a RCM to land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes for long-term simulation of the EASM. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with four different LSP schemes (Noah-MP, CLM4, Pleim-Xiu and SSiB), hereafter referred to as Sim-Noah, Sim-CLM, Sim-PX and Sim-SSiB respectively, have been applied for 22-summer EASM simulations. The 22-summer averaged spatial distributions and strengths of downscaled large-scale circulation, 2-m temperature and precipitation are comprehensively compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis and dense station observations in China. Results show that the downscaling ability of RCM for the EASM is sensitive to LSP schemes. Furthermore, this study confirms that RCM does add more information to the EASM compared to reanalysis that imposes the lateral boundary conditions (LBC) because it provides 2-m temperature and precipitation that are with higher resolution and more realistic compared to LBC. For 2-m temperature and monsoon precipitation, Sim-PX and Sim-SSiB simulations are more consistent with observation than simulations of Sim-Noah and Sim-CLM. To further explore the physical and dynamic mechanisms behind the RCM sensitivity to LSP schemes, differences in the surface energy budget between simulations of Ens-Noah-CLM (ensemble mean averaging Sim-Noah and Sim-CLM) and Ens-PX-SSiB (ensemble mean averaging Sim-PX and Sim-SSiB) are investigated and their subsequent impacts on the atmospheric circulation are analyzed. It is found that the intensity of simulated sensible heat flux over Asian continent in Ens-Noah-CLM is stronger than that in Ens-PX-SSiB, which induces a higher tropospheric temperature in Ens-Noah-CLM than in Ens-PX-SSiB over land. The adaptive

  4. Sensitivity of remote aerosol distributions to representation of cloud–aerosol interactions in a global climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5, have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as the upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol–climate model that explicitly represents convection and aerosol–cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the subgrid-scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a 10-fold (5-fold increase in the winter (summer months, resulting in a much-better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold

  5. Sensitivity of remote aerosol distributions to representation of cloud-aerosol interactions in a global climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5, have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold increase in the winter (summer months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold

  6. Sensitivity of Remote Aerosol Distributions to Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in a Global Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hailong; Easter, Richard C.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Qian, Yun; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Vinoj, V.

    2013-06-05

    Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in

  7. Sensitivity of forced air distribution system efficiency to climate, duct location, air leakage and insulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, Iain

    2001-09-01

    This study was performed in order to find suitable efficiency and leakage specifications for Energy Star duct systems and provide recommendations on duct insulation specifications. This analysis looks at a typical house, with a selection of duct locations, climates, duct insulation (R-value), and duct leakage. A set of calculations were performed with reduced capacity and airflow to look at the effect of variable capacity systems. This was done to address concerns regarding the increased efficiency of multi-capacity equipment due to good part load performance and how these efficiency gains may be offset by increased duct losses. The duct system efficiencies were calculated using the procedures in proposed ASHRAE Standard 152P ''Method of Test for Determining the Design and Seasonal Efficiencies of Residential Thermal Distribution Systems'' (ASHRAE 1999). This proposed ASHRAE Standard can be used to calculate duct efficiency for both design and seasonal weather conditions. In this report, the seasonal efficiencies are used for most of the analysis because they are the most appropriate for estimating energy consumption in buildings. The effects at peak conditions are examined for changing duct insulation in order to provide preliminary estimates of the potential responses to time of use pricing. The study was performed in two parts. The first part focused on duct leakage and the second part on duct insulation. The HVAC systems in the two parts share many attributes, however, they differ in detail and so are treated separately here. All the calculation results are summarized in tables in the Appendix, and specific results are given in the text.

  8. Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jing Peng; Li Dan; Mei Huang

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of...

  9. Cosmetic Contact Sensitivity in Patients with Melasma: Results of a Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabha, Neel; Mahajan, Vikram K.; Mehta, Karaninder S.; Chauhan, Pushpinder S.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Some of the patients with melasma perhaps have pigmented cosmetic dermatitis. However, cosmetic contact sensitivity in melasma remains poorly studied particularly in the Indian context. Objectives. To study cosmetic contact sensitivity in patients with melasma. Materials and Methods. 67 (F : M = 55 : 12) consecutive patients with melasma between 19 and 49 years of age were patch tested sequentially during January–December, 2012, with Indian Cosmetic and Fragrance Series, Indian Sunscreen Series, p-phenylenediamine, and patient's own cosmetic products. Results. 52 (78%) patients were in the age group of 20–40 years. The duration of melasma varied from 1 month to 20 years. Centrofacial, malar, and mandibular patterns were observed in 48 (72%), 18 (27%), and 1 (1%) patients, respectively. Indian Cosmetics and Fragrance Series elicited positive reactions in 29 (43.3%) patients. Cetrimide was the most common contact sensitizers eliciting positivity in 15 (52%) patients, followed by gallate mix in 9 (31%) patients and thiomersal in 7 (24%) patients. Only 2 of the 42 patients showed positive reaction from their own cosmetics while the other 5 patients had irritant reaction. Indian Sunscreen Series did not elicit any positive reaction. Conclusion. Cosmetics contact sensitivity appears as an important cause of melasma not associated with pregnancy, lactation, or hormone therapy. PMID:25132846

  10. Cosmetic Contact Sensitivity in Patients with Melasma: Results of a Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neel Prabha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Some of the patients with melasma perhaps have pigmented cosmetic dermatitis. However, cosmetic contact sensitivity in melasma remains poorly studied particularly in the Indian context. Objectives. To study cosmetic contact sensitivity in patients with melasma. Materials and Methods. 67 (F : M = 55 : 12 consecutive patients with melasma between 19 and 49 years of age were patch tested sequentially during January–December, 2012, with Indian Cosmetic and Fragrance Series, Indian Sunscreen Series, p-phenylenediamine, and patient’s own cosmetic products. Results. 52 (78% patients were in the age group of 20–40 years. The duration of melasma varied from 1 month to 20 years. Centrofacial, malar, and mandibular patterns were observed in 48 (72%, 18 (27%, and 1 (1% patients, respectively. Indian Cosmetics and Fragrance Series elicited positive reactions in 29 (43.3% patients. Cetrimide was the most common contact sensitizers eliciting positivity in 15 (52% patients, followed by gallate mix in 9 (31% patients and thiomersal in 7 (24% patients. Only 2 of the 42 patients showed positive reaction from their own cosmetics while the other 5 patients had irritant reaction. Indian Sunscreen Series did not elicit any positive reaction. Conclusion. Cosmetics contact sensitivity appears as an important cause of melasma not associated with pregnancy, lactation, or hormone therapy.

  11. Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: Concepts, issues and management responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perry, Ian; Cury, Philippe; Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have ramificati......Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have...

  12. Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazer, Susan J.; Travers, Steven E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Bolmgren, Kjell; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Inouye, David W.

    2013-01-01

    Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

  13. Operation of marine diesel engines on biogenic fuels: modification of emissions and resulting climate effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzold, Andreas; Lauer, Peter; Fritsche, Uwe; Hasselbach, Jan; Lichtenstern, Michael; Schlager, Hans; Fleischer, Fritz

    2011-12-15

    The modification of emissions of climate-sensitive exhaust compounds such as CO(2), NO(x), hydrocarbons, and particulate matter from medium-speed marine diesel engines was studied for a set of fossil and biogenic fuels. Applied fossil fuels were the reference heavy fuel oil (HFO) and the low-sulfur marine gas oil (MGO); biogenic fuels were palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and animal fat. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the production of biogenic fuels were treated by means of a fuel life cycle analysis which included land use changes associated with the growth of energy plants. Emissions of CO(2) and NO(x) per kWh were found to be similar for fossil fuels and biogenic fuels. PM mass emission was reduced to 10-15% of HFO emissions for all low-sulfur fuels including MGO as a fossil fuel. Black carbon emissions were reduced significantly to 13-30% of HFO. Changes in emissions were predominantly related to particulate sulfate, while differences between low-sulfur fossil fuels and low-sulfur biogenic fuels were of minor significance. GHG emissions from the biogenic fuel life cycle (FLC) depend crucially on energy plant production conditions and have the potential of shifting the overall GHG budget from positive to negative compared to fossil fuels.

  14. Taking a Multi-pronged Approach to Expand the Reach of Climate Research Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, R.; Unger, M.; Eastburn, T.; Rockwell, A.; Laursen, K. K.; National CenterAtmospheric Research

    2011-12-01

    Recognizing the importance of tailoring content to a variety of audiences, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) takes a multi-pronged approach to expand the reach of climate research results. The center's communications and education and outreach teams leverage Web 1.0 and 2.0 functionality - Google searches, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube - as well as face-to-face interactions and traditional media outlets to ensure climate change messages effectively connect with multiple audiences. Key to these efforts, NCAR seeks to frame messages that emphasize cultural cognition, that is, in a manner that recognizes and resonates with different audiences' values and thus their identities. Among the basic communications approaches NCAR uses to engage the public are one-on-one interactions with the visiting public, which ranges from school children and tourists, to dignitaries and journalists. As an example, the NCAR Journalism Fellowship brings a competitively selected group of internatoinal journalists to NCAR. During a week-long visit and ongoing contact, journalists are provided with a close-up, nuanced view of the science and individuals working on the bigger-picture research that drives climate-related sound bites reported by the press. NCAR provides media training for its scientists, giving them tools and practice in effectively handling interviews for print, Web and radio outlets. The institution hosts public events like "Super Science Saturday," and NCAR staff participate in external activities such as school science fairs, community events and continuing education sessions. In addition to interactive displays that allow the public to "experience" science directly and informally, NCAR develops educational programs and curricula targeted to specific age groups and levels of expertise. We will explore the importance of analogies, images and anecdotes in explaining complicated subjects to such a varied set of audiences, and identify key concepts in simplifying

  15. Sensitivity of simulated climate to latitudinal distribution of solar insolation reduction in SRM geoengineering methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Modak

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Solar radiation management (SRM geoengineering has been proposed as a potential option to counteract climate change. We perform a set of idealized geoengineering simulations to understand the global hydrological implications of varying the latitudinal distribution of solar insolation reduction in SRM methods. We find that for a fixed total mass of sulfate aerosols (12.6 Mt of SO4, relative to a uniform distribution which mitigates changes in global mean temperature, global mean radiative forcing is larger when aerosol concentration is maximum at the poles leading to a warmer global mean climate and consequently an intensified hydrological cycle. Opposite changes are simulated when aerosol concentration is maximized in the tropics. We obtain a range of 1 K in global mean temperature and 3% in precipitation changes by varying the distribution pattern: this range is about 50% of the climate change from a doubling of CO2. Hence, our study demonstrates that a range of global mean climate states, determined by the global mean radiative forcing, are possible for a fixed total amount of aerosols but with differing latitudinal distribution, highlighting the need for a careful evaluation of SRM proposals.

  16. Sensitivity to long-term climate change of subpermafrost groundwater systems in Svalbard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haldorsen, S.; Heim, M.; Dale, A.; Landvik, J.Y.; Ploeg, van der M.J.; Leijnse, A.; Salvigsen, O.; Ove Hagen, J.; Banks, D.

    2010-01-01

    Deep subpermafrost aquifers are highly climate-dependent, with the permafrost as an aquitard preventing groundwater recharge and discharge. A study from the high-arctic island of Spitsbergen, Svalbard, shows that during a glacial to interglacial phase, both the permafrost and the glacier regime will

  17. High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher.

  18. Post-impact climate conditions on early Mars: preliminary results from GCM simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steakley, Kathryn; Murphy, Jim; Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert

    2016-10-01

    Observations imply that liquid water was stable on Mars' surface during the late Noachian/early Hesperian era, with valley networks forming roughly 3.5-3.75 billion years ago, possibly from precipitation and runoff (Fassett & Head 2008, Icarus 195, 61; Hynek et al., 2010, JGR Planets, 115, E09008). Climate models, however, struggle to reproduce such warm conditions (Forget et al., 2013, Icarus 21, 81). Volcanism and impacts have been suggested as mechanisms of either inducing a warm and wet environment or causing local melting in a cold and wet environment. Comets and asteroids are capable of injecting into the atmosphere both kinetic energy from the impact and water from the object itself and from vaporized surface and subsurface ice. Segura et al. (2008, JGR Planets 113, E11007) find using a 1-D atmospheric model that significant rainfall and periods of above-freezing temperatures lasting months to years can follow impacts of objects between 30 and 100 km in diameter. We revisit this work utilizing a 3-D global climate model (GCM) to consider the effects of dynamics, topography, global surface ice variations, etc. We present preliminary results from the NASA ARC Mars GCM investigating global temperature and precipitation behavior in a post-impact, early Mars environment.

  19. Intense precipitation extremes in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    scoccimarro, enrico; gualdi, silvio; bellucci, alessio; zampieri, matteo; navarra, antonio

    2013-04-01

    In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the epoch difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the intensity associated with extreme precipitation events, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed extreme precipitation intensity, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the intensity of the extreme precipitations, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and the southern Africa during boreal winter. These changes are consistent with a strong increase of the column integrated water content availability over the afore mentioned regions.

  20. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Predicted changes in dissolved organic carbon induced by reductions in acid deposition or increases in temperature may potentially influence the recovery of surface waters from acidification and may offset the increase in pH resulting from S deposition reductions. However, many climate-induced changes in processes are generally not incorporated in current versions of acidification models. To allow more reliable forecasts, the mechanisms by

  1. Reliability, sensitivity, and uncertainty of reservoir performance under climate variability in basins with different hydrogeologic settings

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated how reservoir performance varied across different hydrogeologic settings and under plausible future climate scenarios. The study was conducted in the Santiam River basin, OR, USA, comparing the North Santiam basin (NSB), with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam basin (SSB), with low permeability, little groundwater storage, and rapid runoff response. We applied projections of future temperature and precipitatio...

  2. Sensitivity of the Colorado Plateau to Change: Climate, Ecosystems, and Society

    OpenAIRE

    Jayne Belnap; David R. Bowling; Susan Schwinning; Ehleringer, James R.

    2008-01-01

    The Colorado Plateau is located in the interior, dry end of two moisture trajectories coming from opposite directions, which have made this region a target for unusual climate fluctuations. A multi-decadal drought event some 850 years ago may have eliminated maize cultivation by the first human settlers of the Colorado Plateau, the Fremont and Anasazi people, and contributed to the abandonment of their settlements. Even today, ranching and farming are vulnerable to drought and struggle to per...

  3. Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Tuleya, Robert E.

    2004-09-01

    Previous studies have found that idealized hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO2 conditions, are more intense and have higher precipitation rates than under present-day conditions. The present study explores the sensitivity of this result to the choice of climate model used to define the CO2-warmed environment and to the choice of convective parameterization used in the nested regional model that simulates the hurricanes. Approximately 1300 five-day idealized simulations are performed using a higher-resolution version of the GFDL hurricane prediction system (grid spacing as fine as 9 km, with 42 levels). All storms were embedded in a uniform 5 m s-1 easterly background flow. The large-scale thermodynamic boundary conditions for the experiments— atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs—are derived from nine different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2+) climate models. The CO2-induced SST changes from the global climate models, based on 80-yr linear trends from +1% yr-1 CO2 increase experiments, range from about +0.8° to +2.4°C in the three tropical storm basins studied. Four different moist convection parameterizations are tested in the hurricane model, including the use of no convective parameterization in the highest resolution inner grid. Nearly all combinations of climate model boundary conditions and hurricane model convection schemes show a CO2-induced increase in both storm intensity and near-storm precipitation rates. The aggregate results, averaged across all experiments, indicate a 14% increase in central pressure fall, a 6% increase in maximum surface wind speed, and an 18% increase in average precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm center. The fractional change in precipitation is more sensitive to the choice of convective parameterization than is the fractional change of intensity. Current hurricane potential intensity theories, applied to the climate model environments, yield an average increase of intensity

  4. New proofs of the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau as a result of the increasing greenhouse gases emissions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Anmin; WU Guoxiong; ZHANG Qiong; LIU Yimin

    2006-01-01

    A striking climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau during the last decades has been revealed by many studies, but evidence linking it to human activity is insufficient. By using historical observations, here we show that the in situ climate warming is accompanied by a distinct decreasing trend of the diurnal range of surface air temperature. The ERA40 reanalysis further indicates that there seems to be a coherent warming trend near the tropopause but a cooling trend in the lower stratosphere. Moreover, all these features can be reproduced in two coupled climate models forced by observed CO2 concentration of the 20th century but cannot be produced by the fixed external conditions before the industrial revolution. These suggest that the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau primarily results from the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions, and impacts of the increased greenhouse gases emissions upon the climate change in the plateau are probably more serious than the rest of the world.

  5. Sensitivity of the Colorado Plateau to Change: Climate, Ecosystems, and Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayne Belnap

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Colorado Plateau is located in the interior, dry end of two moisture trajectories coming from opposite directions, which have made this region a target for unusual climate fluctuations. A multi-decadal drought event some 850 years ago may have eliminated maize cultivation by the first human settlers of the Colorado Plateau, the Fremont and Anasazi people, and contributed to the abandonment of their settlements. Even today, ranching and farming are vulnerable to drought and struggle to persist. The recent use of the Colorado Plateau primarily as rangeland has made this region less tolerant to drought due to unprecedented levels of surface disturbances that destroy biological crusts, reduce soil carbon and nitrogen stocks, and increase rates of soil erosion. The most recent drought of 2002 demonstrated the vulnerability of the Colorado Plateau in its currently depleted state and the associated costs to the local economies. New climate predictions for the southwestern United States include the possibility of a long-term shift to warmer, more arid conditions, punctuated by megadroughts not seen since medieval times. It remains to be seen whether the present-day extractive industries, aided by external subsidies, can persist in a climate regime that apparently exceeded the adaptive capacities of the Colorado Plateau's prehistoric agriculturalists.

  6. Sensitivity of the Colorado Plateau to change: Climate, ecosystems, and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwinning, S.; Belnap, J.; Bowling, David R.; Ehleringer, J.R.

    2008-01-01

    The Colorado Plateau is located in the interior, dry end of two moisture trajectories coming from opposite directions, which have made this region a target for unusual climate fluctuations. A multidecadal drought event some 850 years ago may have eliminated maize cultivation by the first human settlers of the Colorado Plateau, the Fremont and Anasazi people, and contributed to the abandonment of their settlements. Even today, ranching and farming are vulnerable to drought and struggle to persist. The recent use of the Colorado Plateau primarily as rangeland has made this region less tolerant to drought due to unprecedented levels of surface disturbances that destroy biological crusts, reduce soil carbon and nitrogen stocks, and increase rates of soil erosion. The most recent drought of 2002 demonstrated the vulnerability of the Colorado Plateau in its currently depleted state and the associated costs to the local economies. New climate predictions for the southwestern United States include the possibility of a long-term shift to warmer, more arid conditions, punctuated by megadroughts not seen since medieval times. It remains to be seen whether the present-day extractive industries, aided by external subsidies, can persist in a climate regime that apparently exceeded the adaptive capacities of the Colorado Plateau's prehistoric agriculturalists.

  7. Climatic Sensitivity of a Mixed Forest Association of White Spruce and Trembling Aspen at Their Southern Range Limit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophan Chhin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic sensitivity of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench Voss was examined growing in association with trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. at their southern limit of distribution in a transitional ecotone between the southern boreal forest and northern prairie region. The study was carried out in the Spruce Woods Provincial Park (SWPP located in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. The dry regional climate restricted trembling aspen growth during the growing season via moisture deficiency and temperature induced drought stress. Warm, mild winters also negatively affected radial growth of trembling aspen. Growth of white spruce was moderated by conditions within the aspen stands as radial growth patterns showed low variability from year to year, a low common growth signal, and a stronger response to temperature than to precipitation. Nonetheless, the dry regional climate still restricted growth of white spruce during the growing season via temperature induced drought stress. The findings of the study for white spruce support the stress gradient hypothesis in which facilitative interactions between tree species are expected under harsher environmental conditions.

  8. Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from

  9. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Arritt, R.; Biner, S.; Bukovsky, Melissa; McGinnis, Seth; Sain, Steve; Caya, Daniel; Correia Jr., James; Flory, Dave; Gutowski, William; Takle, Gene; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; McDaniel, Larry; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun; Roads, J.; Sloan, Lisa; Snyder, Mark A.

    2012-09-20

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is an international effort designed to systematically investigate the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and produce high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, with a common domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The program also includes an evaluation component (Phase I) wherein the participating RCMs are nested within 25 years of NCEP/DOE global reanalysis II. The grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km.

  10. From vision to action: roadmapping as a strategic method and tool to implement climate change adaptation - the example of the roadmap 'water sensitive urban design 2020'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasse, J U; Weingaertner, D E

    2016-01-01

    As the central product of the BMBF-KLIMZUG-funded Joint Network and Research Project (JNRP) 'dynaklim - Dynamic adaptation of regional planning and development processes to the effects of climate change in the Emscher-Lippe region (North Rhine Westphalia, Germany)', the Roadmap 2020 'Regional Climate Adaptation' has been developed by the various regional stakeholders and institutions containing specific regional scenarios, strategies and adaptation measures applicable throughout the region. This paper presents the method, elements and main results of this regional roadmap process by using the example of the thematic sub-roadmap 'Water Sensitive Urban Design 2020'. With a focus on the process support tool 'KlimaFLEX', one of the main adaptation measures of the WSUD 2020 roadmap, typical challenges for integrated climate change adaptation like scattered knowledge, knowledge gaps and divided responsibilities but also potential solutions and promising chances for urban development and urban water management are discussed. With the roadmap and the related tool, the relevant stakeholders of the Emscher-Lippe region have jointly developed important prerequisites to integrate their knowledge, to clarify vulnerabilities, adaptation goals, responsibilities and interests, and to foresightedly coordinate measures, resources, priorities and schedules for an efficient joint urban planning, well-grounded decision-making in times of continued uncertainties and step-by-step implementation of adaptation measures from now on.

  11. Different growth sensitivity to climate of the conifer Juniperus thurifera on both sides of the Mediterranean Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSoto, Lucía; Varino, Filipa; Andrade, José P; Gouveia, Celia M; Campelo, Filipe; Trigo, Ricardo M; Nabais, Cristina

    2014-12-01

    Mediterranean plants cope with cold wet winters and dry hot summers, with a drought gradient from northwest to southeast. Limiting climatic conditions have become more pronounced in the last decades due to the warming trend and rainfall decrease. Juniperus thurifera L., a long-lived conifer tree endemic to the western Mediterranean region, has a disjunct distribution in Europe and Africa, making it a suitable species to study sensitivity to climate in both sides of the Mediterranean Basin. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for three J. thurifera stands at Spain (Europe) and three in Morocco (Africa) and correlated with monthly temperature and precipitation. The temporal stability of climate-growth relationships was assessed using moving correlations; the drought effect on growth was calculated using the monthly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at different temporal scales. In the wettest stands, increasing spring temperature and summer precipitation enhanced growth, while in the driest stands, growth was enhanced by higher spring precipitation and lower summer temperature. The climate-growth correlations shifted during the twentieth century, especially since the 1970s. Particularly noticeable is the recent negative correlation with previous autumn and winter precipitation in the wettest stands of J. thurifera, probably related with an effect of cloud cover or flooding on carbon storage depletion for next year growth. The driest stands were affected by drought at long time scales, while the wettest stands respond to drought at short time scales. This reveals a different strategy to cope with drought conditions, with populations from drier sites able to cope with short periods of water deficit.

  12. Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Matthew G.; Nolin, Anne W.; Safeeq, Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Record low snowpack conditions were observed at Snow Telemetry stations in the Cascades Mountains, USA during the winters of 2014 and 2015. We tested the hypothesis that these winters are analogs for the temperature sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks. In the Oregon Cascades, the 2014 and 2015 winter air temperature anomalies were approximately +2 °C and +4 °C above the climatological mean. We used a spatially distributed snowpack energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of multiple snowpack metrics to a +2 °C and +4 °C warming and compared our modeled sensitivities to observed values during 2014 and 2015. We found that for each +1 °C warming, modeled basin-mean peak snow water equivalent (SWE) declined by 22%-30%, the date of peak SWE (DPS) advanced by 13 days, the duration of snow cover (DSC) shortened by 31-34 days, and the snow disappearance date (SDD) advanced by 22-25 days. Our hypothesis was not borne out by the observations except in the case of peak SWE; other snow metrics did not resemble predicted values based on modeled sensitivities and thus are not effective analogs of future temperature sensitivities. Rather than just temperature, it appears that the magnitude and phasing of winter precipitation events, such as large, late spring snowfall, controlled the DPS, SDD, and DSC.

  13. Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten;

    2015-01-01

    model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models......Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub...... fire-prone region that should gain further attention for future fire management....

  14. Climate change and river temperature sensitivity to warmer nighttime vs. warmer daytime air temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diabat, M.; Haggerty, R.; Wondzell, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    We investigated the July river temperature response to atmospheric warming over the diurnal cycle in a 36 km reach of the upper Middle Fork John Day River of Oregon, USA. The physical model Heat Source was calibrated and used to run 3 different cases of increased air temperature during July: 1) uniform increase over the whole day ("delta method"), 2) warmer daytime, and 3) warmer nighttime. All 3 cases had the same mean daily air temperatures - a 4 °C increase relative to 2002. Results show that the timing of air temperature increases has a significant effect on the magnitude, timing and duration of changes in water temperatures relative to current conditions. In all cases, river temperatures in the lower reach increased by at least 1.1 °C . For the delta case, water temperature increases never exceeded 2.3 °C. In contrast, under the warmer daytime case, water temperature increases exceeded 2.3 °C for 6.6 hours/day on average, with the largest increases occurring during mid-day. In the warmer night case the river temperature increases exceeded 2.3 °C for 4.3 hours/day on average with the largest increases occurring around midnight. In addition, an average increase of 4 °C in air temperature under the delta case increased the water temperature by an average of 1.9 °C uniformly during daytime and nighttime. Still, an average increase of 4 °C in air temperature under the warmer daytime case increased water temperature by an average of at least 1.6 °C during the daytime and by an average of up to 2.5 °C during the nighttime, while an average increase of 4 °C in air temperature under the warmer nighttime case increased the water temperature by an average of at least 1.4 °C during the nighttime and by an average of up to 2.4 °C during the daytime. The spatial response of temperature was different for each case. The lower 13 rkm warmed by at least 1.1 °C with the delta case, while only the lower 6 rkm warmed by at least 1.1 °C with the warmer daytime case

  15. Assessing the Sensitivity of a Reservoir Management System Under Plausible Assumptions About Future Climate Over Seasons to Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, M. N.; Brown, C. M.; Baroang, K. M.; Kaheil, Y. H.

    2011-12-01

    We illustrate an analysis procedure that explores the robustness and overall productivity of a reservoir management system under plausible assumptions about climate fluctuation and change. Results are presented based on a stylized version of a multi-use reservoir management model adapted from Angat Dam, Philippines. It represents a modest-sized seasonal storage reservoir in a climate with a pronounced dry season. The reservoir management model focuses on October-March, during which climatological inflow declines due to the arrival of the dry season, and reservoir management becomes critical and challenging. Inflow is assumed to be impacted by climate fluctuations representing interannal variation (white noise), decadal to multidecadal variation (MDV, here represented by a stochastic autoregressive process) and global change (GC), here represented by a systematic linear trend in seasonal inflow total over the simulation period of 2008-2047. Reservoir reliability, and risk of extreme persistent water shortfall, is assessed under different combinations and magnitudes of GC and MDV. We include an illustration of adaptive management, using seasonal forecasts and updated climate normals. A set of seasonal forecast and observed inflow values are generated for 2008-2047 by randomly rearranging the forecast-observed pairs for 1968-2007. Then, trends are imposed on the observed series, with differing assumptions about the extent to which the seasonal forecasts can be expected to track the trend. We consider the framework presented here well-suited to providing insights about managing the climate risks in reservoir operations, providing guidance on expected benefits and risks of different strategies and climate scenarios.

  16. Sensitivity of isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN to the time resolution of input climate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ashworth

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effect of varying the temporal resolution of the input climate data on isoprene emission estimates generated by the community emissions model MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature. The estimated total global annual emissions of isoprene is reduced from 766 Tg y−1 when using hourly input data to 746 Tg y−1 (a reduction of 3% for daily average input data and 711 Tg y−1 (down 7% for monthly average input data. The impact on a local scale can be more significant with reductions of up to 55% at some locations when using monthly average data compared with using hourly data. If the daily and monthly average temperature data are used without the imposition of a diurnal cycle the global emissions estimates fall by 27–32%, and local annual emissions by up to 77%. A similar pattern emerges if hourly isoprene fluxes are considered. In order to better simulate and predict isoprene emission rates using MEGAN, we show it is necessary to use temperature and radiation data resolved to one hour. Given the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system and the low computational cost of the MEGAN algorithms, we recommend that chemistry-climate models and the new generation of Earth system models input biogenic emissions at the highest temporal resolution possible.

  17. Climate Sensitivity of Franz-Josef Glacier, New Zealand, as revealed by numerical modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1997-01-01

    The sensitivity of Franz Josef Glacier is studied with a numerical ice-flow model. The model calculates ice mass flux along a central flow line and deals with the three-dimensional geometry in a parameterized way. Forcing is provided through a mass balance model that generates specific balance from

  18. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    around 100m are smaller than 3.2% at offshore sites, except for those that are affected by the wake of a wind farm or the coastline. These biases are smaller than those obtained by using winds directly from the reanalysis. We study the sensitivity of the WRF-simulated wind climatology to various model...

  19. Quantifying the Mass Balance of Ice Caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. III: Sensitivity of Ice Caps in Severnaya Zemlya to Future Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Bassford, R.P.; Siegert, M. J.; J. A. Dowdeswell

    2006-01-01

    A coupled surface mass balance and ice-flow model was used to predict the response of three ice caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic, to the present climate and to future climate changes as postulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Ice cap boundary conditions are derived from recent airborne geophysical surveying (Dowdeswell et al., 2002), and model inputs are constructed from available climate data. Model results indicate that, currently, the state of balance of...

  20. Query sensitive comparative summarization of search results using concept based segmentation

    CERN Document Server

    Chitra, P; Sarukesi, K

    2012-01-01

    Query sensitive summarization aims at providing the users with the summary of the contents of single or multiple web pages based on the search query. This paper proposes a novel idea of generating a comparative summary from a set of URLs from the search result. User selects a set of web page links from the search result produced by search engine. Comparative summary of these selected web sites is generated. This method makes use of HTML DOM tree structure of these web pages. HTML documents are segmented into set of concept blocks. Sentence score of each concept block is computed with respect to the query and feature keywords. The important sentences from the concept blocks of different web pages are extracted to compose the comparative summary on the fly. This system reduces the time and effort required for the user to browse various web sites to compare the information. The comparative summary of the contents would help the users in quick decision making.

  1. Assessing climate change induced modification of Penman potential evaporation and runoff sensitivity in a large water-limited basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qiang; McVicar, Tim R.

    2012-09-01

    SummaryPotential evaporation (Ep) reflects the combined effects of four key meteorological variables: (i) net radiation (Rn); (ii) wind speed (u); (iii) relative humidity (rh); and (iv) air temperature (Ta). Here, attribution analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the four key meteorological variables to changes of a physically-based Ep in a large water-limited basin, the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. Then the influences of these changes, and precipitation (P) changes, on streamflow (Q) were explored analytically. Results show that: (i) Ep presented different temporal trends for the water yielding region (WYR) and water consuming region (WCR) with a overall changes of +0.16 mm a-2 and -0.66 mm a-2 during 1961-2010, respectively; (ii) trend analysis of Ep and the four key meteorological variables at the basin scale showed that increasing trend in Ta increased Ep during 1961-2010, while changes in Rn and u increased the 1961-1979 Ep rate and reduced it during 1980-1994 and 1995-2010; (iii) revealed by attribution analysis, Ep increased by changes in Ta and rh and reduced by changes of Rn and u in both WYR and WCR, in all, Ep rate presented positive and negative trends in the WYR and WCR, respectively; (iv) the changes of Q and actual evaporation (E) are much more sensitive to changes in P than the changes in Ep; and (v) of critical importance for water resource management of the YRB changes in Q are mainly attributed to changes in catchment-specific parameter (n) and P, while Ep reduced Q in WYR and increased Q in WCR. These results indicated that the causes of trend of Ep rates, influenced by combined effects of radiative and aerodynamic variables should be explicitly explained using fully physically based Ep formulations. Additionally, in the water-limited YRB, changes of Q are primarily controlled by the changes in catchment conditions, and secondarily by hydroclimatic factors where the available water (P) rather than energy condition (Ep) is

  2. The economics of climate change mitigation in developing countries - methodological and empirical results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K.

    1997-12-01

    This thesis presents a methodological and empirical discussion of the costs associated with implementing greenhouse gas reduction strategies in developing countries. It presents a methodological framework for national costing studies and evaluates a number of associated valuation methods. The methodological framework has been applied in several developing countries as part of a UNEP project in which the author has participated, and reference is made to the results of these country studies. Some of the theoretical issues associated with the determination of the costs of emission reductions are discussed with reference to a number of World Bank and UN guidelines for project analysis in developing countries. The use of several accounting prices is recommended for mitigation projects, with a distinction being made between internationally and domestically traded goods. The consequences of using different accounting prices are discussed with respect to the methodology applied in the UNEP country studies. In conclusion the thesis reviews the results of some of the most important international studies of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. The review, which encompasses a total of 27 country studies, was undertaken by the author for the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, the IPCC. Its conclusion is that the UNEP methodological framework and associated country study results are consistent with the recommendations and conclusions of the IPCC. (EG) 23 refs.

  3. Distribution of a climate-sensitive species at an interior range margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Chris; Beever, Erik; Rodhouse, Thomas J.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in understanding the factors that limit a species’ range, particularly in the context of climate change, have come disproportionately through investigations at range edges or margins. The margins of a species’ range might often correspond with anomalous microclimates that confer habitat suitability where the species would otherwise fail to persist. We addressed this hypothesis using data from an interior, climatic range margin of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), an indicator of relatively cool, mesic climates in rocky habitats of western North America. Pikas in Lava Beds National Monument, northeastern California, USA, occur at elevations much lower than predicted by latitude and longitude. We hypothesized that pika occurrence within Lava Beds would be associated primarily with features such as “ice caves” in which sub-surface ice persists outside the winter months. We used data loggers to monitor sub-surface temperatures at cave entrances and at non-cave sites, confirming that temperatures were cooler and more stable at cave entrances. We surveyed habitat characteristics and evidence of pika occupancy across a random sample of cave and non-cave sites over a 2-yr period. Pika detection probability was high (~0.97), and the combined occupancy of cave and non-cave sites varied across the 2 yr from 27% to 69%. Contrary to our hypothesis, occupancy was not higher at cave sites. Vegetation metrics were the best predictors of site use by pikas, followed by an edge effect and elevation. The importance of vegetation as a predictor of pika distribution at this interior range margin is congruent with recent studies from other portions of the species’ range. However, we caution that vegetation composition depends on microclimate, which might be the proximal driver of pika distribution. The microclimates available in non-cave crevices accessible to small animals have not been characterized adequately for lava landscapes. We advocate innovation in the

  4. Economic behavior of fishers under climate-related uncertainty: results from field experiments in Mexico and Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    Arroyo Mina, José Santiago; Daniel A. Revollo Fernández; Aguilar Ibarra, Alonso; Georgantzis, Nikolaos

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of economic experiments run among fishermen from the Mexican and Colombian Pacific. The experimental design aims at studying behavior under uncertainty concerning the possible effects of climate change on fisheries. We find that subjects’ risk-aversion diminishes the level of catches and changes fishing practices (e.g. adopting marine reserves), provided that fishermen have ex ante information on possible climatic consequences. Furthermore, social preferences (...

  5. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found through analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, an understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial.

  6. The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Nudged simulations of the year 2000 are carried out to compare the aerosol properties and global distribution in HAM1 and HAM2, and to evaluate them against various observations. Sensitivity experiments are performed to help identify the impact of each individual update in model formulation.

    Results indicate that from HAM1 to HAM2 there is a marked weakening of aerosol water uptake in the lower troposphere, reducing the total aerosol water burden from 75 Tg to 51 Tg. The main reason is the newly introduced κ-Köhler-theory-based water uptake scheme uses a lower value for the maximum relative humidity cutoff. Particulate organic matter loading in HAM2 is considerably higher in the upper troposphere, because the explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols allows highly volatile oxidation products of the precursors to be vertically transported to regions of very low temperature and to form aerosols there. Sulfate, black carbon, particulate organic matter and mineral dust in HAM2 have longer lifetimes than in HAM1 because of weaker in-cloud scavenging, which is in turn related to lower autoconversion efficiency in the newly introduced two-moment cloud microphysics scheme. Modification in the sea salt emission scheme causes a significant increase in the ratio (from 1.6 to 7.7 between accumulation mode and coarse mode emission fluxes of

  7. Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to

  8. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    OpenAIRE

    A. M. Haywood; D. J. Hill; Dolan, A. M.; B. L. Otto-Bliesner; F. Bragg; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; H. J. Dowsett; A. Jost; Y. Kamae; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Pickering, S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are cle...

  9. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  10. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. van Angelen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover, solar zenith angle and black carbon concentration. For the control experiment the overestimation of absorbed shortwave radiation (+6% at the K-transect (west Greenland for the period 2004–2009 is considerably reduced compared to the previous density-dependent albedo scheme (+22%. To simulate realistic snow albedo values, a small concentration of black carbon is needed, which has strongest impact on melt in the accumulation area. A background ice albedo field derived from MODIS imagery improves the agreement between the modeled and observed SMB gradient along the K-transect. The effect of enhanced meltwater retention and refreezing is a decrease of the albedo due to an increase in snow grain size. As a secondary effect of refreezing the snowpack is heated, enhancing melt and further lowering the albedo. Especially in a warmer climate this process is important, since it reduces the refreezing potential of the firn layer that covers the Greenland Ice Sheet.

  11. Abrupt millennial variability and interdecadal-interstadial oscillations in a global coupled model: sensitivity to the background climate state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzel, Olivier [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France); England, Matthew H. [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Verdiere, Alain Colin de; Huck, Thierry [Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France)

    2012-07-15

    The origin and bifurcation structure of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions under steady external solar forcing and in the absence of atmospheric synoptic variability is studied by means of a global coupled model of intermediate complexity. We show that the origin of Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in the model is caused by the weaker northward oceanic heat transport in the Atlantic basin. This is in agreement with previous studies realized with much simpler models, based on highly idealized geometries and simplified physics. The existence of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions during glacial times can therefore be interpreted as a consequence of the weakening of the negative temperature-advection feedback. This is confirmed through a series of numerical experiments designed to explore the sensitivity of the bifurcation structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels under glacial boundary conditions. Contrasting with the cold, stadial, phases of millennial oscillations, we also show the emergence of strong interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic sector during warm interstadials. The instability driving these interdecadal-interstadial oscillations is shown to be identical to that found in ocean-only models forced by fixed surface buoyancy fluxes, that is, a large-scale baroclinic instability developing in the vicinity of the western boundary current in the North Atlantic. Comparisons with modern observations further suggest a physical mechanism similar to that driving the 30-40 years time scale associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. (orig.)

  12. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. van Angelen

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo parameterization. The snow albedo parameterization uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover, solar zenith angle and black carbon concentration. For the control experiment the overestimation of absorbed shortwave radiation (+6 % at the K-transect (West Greenland for the period 2004–2009 is considerably reduced compared to the previous density-dependent albedo parameterization (+22 %. To simulate realistic snow albedo values, a small concentration of black carbon is needed. A background ice albedo field derived from MODIS imagery improves the agreement between the modeled and observed SMB gradient along the K-transect. The effect of enhanced retention and refreezing is a decrease of the albedo due to an increase in snow grain size. As a secondary effect of refreezing the snowpack is heated, enhancing melt and further lowering the albedo. Especially in a warmer climate this process is important, since it reduces the refreezing potential of the firn layer covering the Greenland Ice Sheet.

  13. Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality in the United States: implications for PM2.5 sensitivity to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Fisher

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We applied a multiple linear regression model to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with meteorological variables in the contiguous US and from there to infer the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change. We used 2004–2008 PM2.5 observations from ~1000 sites (~200 sites for PM2.5 components and compared to results from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM. All data were deseasonalized to focus on synoptic-scale correlations. We find strong positive correlations of PM2.5 components with temperature in most of the US, except for nitrate in the Southeast where the correlation is negative. Relative humidity (RH is generally positively correlated with sulfate and nitrate but negatively correlated with organic carbon. GEOS-Chem results indicate that most of the correlations of PM2.5 with temperature and RH do not arise from direct dependence but from covariation with synoptic transport. We applied principal component analysis and regression to identify the dominant meteorological modes controlling PM2.5 variability, and show that 20–40% of the observed PM2.5 day-to-day variability can be explained by a single dominant meteorological mode: cold frontal passages in the eastern US and maritime inflow in the West. These and other synoptic transport modes drive most of the overall correlations of PM2.5 with temperature and RH except in the Southeast. We show that interannual variability of PM2.5 in the US Midwest is strongly correlated with cyclone frequency as diagnosed from a spectral-autoregressive analysis of the dominant meteorological mode. An ensemble of five realizations of 1996–2050 climate change with the GISS general circulation model (GCM using the same climate forcings shows inconsistent trends in cyclone frequency over the Midwest (including in sign, with a likely decrease in cyclone frequency implying an increase in PM2.5. Our results demonstrate the need for multiple GCM realizations (because of climate chaos when diagnosing

  14. Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality in the United States: implications for PM2.5 sensitivity to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Fisher

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available We applied a multiple linear regression model to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with meteorological variables in the contiguous US and from there to infer the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change. We used 2004–2008 PM2.5 observations from ~1000 sites (~200 sites for PM2.5 components and compared to results from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM. All data were deseasonalized to focus on synoptic-scale correlations. We find strong positive correlations of PM2.5 components with temperature in most of the US, except for nitrate in the Southeast where the correlation is negative. Relative humidity (RH is generally positively correlated with sulfate and nitrate but negatively correlated with organic carbon. GEOS-Chem results indicate that most of the correlations of PM2.5 with temperature and RH do not arise from direct dependence but from covariation with synoptic transport. We applied principal component analysis and regression to identify the dominant meteorological modes controlling PM2.5 variability, and show that 20–40% of the observed PM2.5 day-to-day variability can be explained by a single dominant meteorological mode: cold frontal passages in the eastern US and maritime inflow in the West. These and other synoptic transport modes drive most of the overall correlations of PM2.5 with temperature and RH except in the Southeast. We show that interannual variability of PM2.5 in the US Midwest is strongly correlated with cyclone frequency as diagnosed from a spectral-autoregressive analysis of the dominant meteorological mode. An ensemble of five realizations of 1996–2050 climate change with the GISS general circulation model (GCM using the same climate forcings shows inconsistent trends in cyclone frequency over the Midwest (including in sign, with a likely decrease in cyclone frequency implying an increase in PM2.5. Our results demonstrate the need for multiple GCM realizations (because of climate chaos when diagnosing

  15. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus; Haywood, Alan; Pickering, Steven

    2016-04-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicates. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found in analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, a better understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial in understanding proxy derived estimates of high latitude surface temperature change, and the ability of climate models to reproduce this. In GCM simulations, the mPWP is typically represented with fixed orbital forcing, usually identical to modern, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ˜ 400 ppm. However, orbital forcing varied over the ˜ 240,000 years of the mPWP, and it is likely that atmospheric CO2 varied as well. A previous study has suggested that the parameterisation of sea ice albedo in the HadCM3 GCM may not reflect the sea ice albedo for a warmer climate, where seasonal sea ice constitutes a greater proportion of the Arctic sea ice cover. These three factors, in isolation and combined, can greatly influence the simulation of Arctic sea ice cover and the degree of high latitude surface temperature warming. This paper explores the impact of various combinations of potential mPWP orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and minimum sea ice albedo on sea ice extent and high latitude warming. The focus is on the Northern Hemisphere, due to availability of proxy data, and the large data-model discrepancies in this region. Changes in orbital forcings are demonstrated to be sufficient to alter the Arctic sea ice simulated by

  16. Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ18O to orbital and CO2 forcing: climate simulations and ice core data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Sjolte

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 yr ago. The IPSL model produces a remarkably linear relationship between top of atmosphere incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires to explore the stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows to calculate a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4 ‰ per °C during warmer than present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO2, increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears twice as small as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. A preliminary comparison with other model

  17. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations - Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

  18. SAT-MAP-CLIMATE project results[SATellite base bio-geophysical parameter MAPping and aggregation modelling for CLIMATE models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bay Hasager, C.; Woetmann Nielsen, N.; Soegaard, H.; Boegh, E.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Jensen, N.O.; Schultz Rasmussen, M.; Astrup, P.; Dellwik, E.

    2002-08-01

    Earth Observation (EO) data from imaging satellites are analysed with respect to albedo, land and sea surface temperatures, land cover types and vegetation parameters such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the leaf area index (LAI). The observed parameters are used in the DMI-HIRLAM-D05 weather prediction model in order to improve the forecasting. The effect of introducing actual sea surface temperatures from NOAA AVHHR compared to climatological mean values, shows a more pronounced land-sea breeze effect which is also observable in field observations. The albedo maps from NOAA AVHRR are rather similar to the climatological mean values so for the HIRLAM model this is insignicant, yet most likely of some importance in the HIRHAM regional climate model. Land cover type maps are assigned local roughness values determined from meteorological field observations. Only maps with a spatial resolution around 25 m can adequately map the roughness variations of the typical patch size distribution in Denmark. A roughness map covering Denmark is aggregated (ie area-average non-linearly) by a microscale aggregation model that takes the non-linear turbulent responses of each roughness step change between patches in an arbitrary pattern into account. The effective roughnesses are calculated into a 15 km by 15 km grid for the HIRLAM model. The effect of hedgerows is included as an added roughness effect as a function of hedge density mapped from a digital vector map. Introducing the new effective roughness maps into the HIRLAM model appears to remedy on the seasonal wind speed bias over land and sea in spring. A new parameterisation on the effective roughness for scalar surface fluxes is developed and tested on synthetic data. Further is a method for the estimation the evapotranspiration from albedo, surface temperatures and NDVI succesfully compared to field observations. The HIRLAM predictions of water vapour at 12 GMT are used for atmospheric correction of

  19. Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olive, Jean-Arthur; Behn, Mark; Ito, Garrett; Escartin, Javier; Buck, Roger; Howell, Samuel

    2016-04-01

    Abyssal hills are the most common topographic feature on the surface of the solid Earth, yet the detailed mechanisms through which they are formed remain a matter of debate. Classical seafloor observations suggest hills acquire their shape at mid-ocean ridges through a combination of normal faulting and volcanic accretion. However, recent studies have proposed that the fabric of the seafloor reflects rapid fluctuations in ridge magma supply caused by oscillations in sea level modulating the partial melting process beneath the ridge [Crowley et al., 2015, Science]. In order to move this debate forward, we propose a modeling framework relating the magma supply of a mid-ocean ridge to the morphology of the seafloor it produces, i.e., the spacing and amplitude of abyssal hills. We specifically assess whether fluctuations in melt supply of a given periodicity can be recorded in seafloor bathymetry through (1) static compensation of crustal thickness oscillations, (2) volcanic extrusion, and (3) fault growth modulated by dike injection. We find that topography-building processes are generally insensitive to fluctuations in melt supply on time scales shorter than ~50-100 kyr. Further, we show that the characteristic wavelengths found in seafloor bathymetry across all spreading rates are best explained by simple tectono-magmatic interaction models, and require no periodic (climatic) forcing. Finally, we explore different spreading regimes where a smaller amplitude sea-level signal super-imposed on the dominant faulting signal could be most easily resolved.

  20. Trend and climatic sensitivity of vegetation phenology in semiarid and arid ecosystems in the US Great Basin during 1982–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We quantified the temporal trend and climatic sensitivity of vegetation phenology in dryland ecosystems in the US Great Basin during 1982–2011. Our results indicated that vegetation greenness in the Great Basin increased significantly during the study period, and this positive trend occurred in autumn but not spring and summer. Spatially, increases in vegetation greenness were more apparent in the northwestern, southeastern, and eastern Great Basin but less apparent in the central and southwestern Great Basin. In addition, the start of growing season (SOS was not advanced while the end of growing season (EOS was delayed significantly at a rate of 3.0 days per decade during the study period. The significant delay in EOS and lack of earlier leaf onset caused growing season length (GSL to increase at a rate of 3.0 days per decade during 1982–2011. Interestingly, we found that the variation of mean vegetation greenness in the period of March to November (SSA was not significantly correlated with its mean surface air temperature but was strongly correlated with its total precipitation. Seasonally, the variation of mean vegetation greenness in spring, summer, and autumn was mainly attributable to changes in pre-season precipitation in winter and spring. Nevertheless, climate warming played a strong role in extending GSL that in turn resulted in the upward trend in mean vegetation greenness during 1982–2011. Overall, our results suggested that changes in wintertime and springtime precipitation played a stronger role than temperature in affecting the interannual variability of vegetation greenness while climate warming was mainly responsible for the 30-year upward trend in the magnitudes of mean vegetation greenness in the dryland ecosystems during 1982–2011.

  1. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

  2. Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Results of a National Academies Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friday, E.; Barron, E. J.; Elfring, C.; Geller, L.

    2002-12-01

    When a major East Coast snowstorm was forecast during the winter of 2001, people began preparing - both the public and the decision-makers responsible for public services. There was an air of urgency, heightened because just the previous year the region had been hit hard by a storm of unpredicted strength. But this time, the storm never materialized and people were left wondering what went "wrong" with the forecast. Did something go wrong or did forecasters just fail to communicate their information in an effective way? Did they convey a sense of the likelihood of the event and keep people up to date as information changed? In the summer of 2001, the National Academies' Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate hosted a workshop designed to explore the communication of uncertainty in weather and climate information. Workshop participants examined five case studies that were chosen to illustrate a range of forecast timescales and certainty levels. The cases were: Red River Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997; East Coast Winter Storm, March 2001; Oklahoma-Kansas Tornado Outbreak, May 3, 1999; El Nino 1997-1998, and Climate Change Science, a report issued in 2001. In each of these cases, participants examined who said what, when, to whom, how, and with what effect. The last two cases specifically address climate-related topics. This paper summarizes the final workshop report (Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Summary of a Workshop, NRC 2002), including an overview of the five cases and lessons learned about communicating uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts. Among other findings, the report stresses that communication and appropriate dissemination of information, including information about uncertainty in the forecasts and the forecaster's confidence in the product, should be an integral, ongoing part of the forecasting process, not an afterthought. Explaining uncertainty should be an integral part of what weather and climate

  3. What is the role of historical anthropogenically-induced land-cover change on the surface climate of West Africa? Results from the LUCID intercomparison project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souleymane, S.

    2015-12-01

    West Africa has been highlighted as a hot spot of land surface-atmosphere interactions. This study analyses the outputs of the project Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) over West Africa. LUCID used seven atmosphere-land models with a common experimental design to explore the impacts of Land Use induced Land Cover Change (LULCC) that are robust and consistent across the climate models. Focusing the analysis on Sahel and Guinea, this study shows that, even though the seven climate models use the same atmospheric and land cover forcing, there are significant differences of West African Monsoon variability across the climate models. The magnitude of that variability differs significantly from model to model resulting two major "features": (1) atmosphere dynamics models; (2) how the land-surface functioning is parameterized in the Land surface Model, in particular regarding the evapotranspiration partitioning within the different land-cover types, as well as the role of leaf area index (LAI) in the flux calculations and how strongly the surface is coupled to the atmosphere. The major role that the models'sensitivity to land-cover perturbations plays in the resulting climate impacts of LULCC has been analysed in this study. The climate models show, however, significant differences in the magnitude and the seasonal partitioning of the temperature change. The LULCC induced cooling is directed by decreases in net shortwave radiation that reduced the available energy (QA) (related to changes in land-cover properties other than albedo, such as LAI and surface roughness), which decreases during most part of the year. The biophysical impacts of LULCC were compared to the impact of elevated greenhouse gases resulting changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent (CO2SST). The results show that the surface cooling (related a decrease in QA) induced by the biophysical effects of LULCC are insignificant compared to surface warming (related an

  4. Learning from decoys to improve the sensitivity and specificity of proteomics database search results.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar Yadav

    Full Text Available The statistical validation of database search results is a complex issue in bottom-up proteomics. The correct and incorrect peptide spectrum match (PSM scores overlap significantly, making an accurate assessment of true peptide matches challenging. Since the complete separation between the true and false hits is practically never achieved, there is need for better methods and rescoring algorithms to improve upon the primary database search results. Here we describe the calibration and False Discovery Rate (FDR estimation of database search scores through a dynamic FDR calculation method, FlexiFDR, which increases both the sensitivity and specificity of search results. Modelling a simple linear regression on the decoy hits for different charge states, the method maximized the number of true positives and reduced the number of false negatives in several standard datasets of varying complexity (18-mix, 49-mix, 200-mix and few complex datasets (E. coli and Yeast obtained from a wide variety of MS platforms. The net positive gain for correct spectral and peptide identifications was up to 14.81% and 6.2% respectively. The approach is applicable to different search methodologies--separate as well as concatenated database search, high mass accuracy, and semi-tryptic and modification searches. FlexiFDR was also applied to Mascot results and showed better performance than before. We have shown that appropriate threshold learnt from decoys, can be very effective in improving the database search results. FlexiFDR adapts itself to different instruments, data types and MS platforms. It learns from the decoy hits and sets a flexible threshold that automatically aligns itself to the underlying variables of data quality and size.

  5. Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsugli, Joseph J.; Hobbins, Michael T.; Kumar, Sanjiv

    2017-01-01

    Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models’ expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified

  6. Some influences of approximate values for velocity, density and total temperature sensitivities on hot wire anemometer results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainback, P. C.

    1986-01-01

    There is a renewed interest in hot wire anemometry at transonic speeds. Recent results were published which indicate that at transonic speeds a heated wire is sensitive only to mass flow and total temperature, results similar to those obtained for supersonic flows. Other results were obtained to show that the sensitivity is a function of velocity, density, and total temperature, results in agreement with many of those obtained in the 1950s. An analysis of anemometry results was made to evaluate possible errors when various assumptions were made concerning the sensitivity of a heated wire to fluid flow variables.

  7. Effects of Climate Change on Drinking Water Distribution Network Integrity: Predicting Pipe Failure Resulting from Differential Soil Settlement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wols, B.A.; Van Daal, K.; Van Thienen, P.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may result in lowering of ground water levels and consolidation of the soil. The resulting (differential) settlements, associated with soil property transitions, may damage underground pipe infrastructure, such as drinking water distribution sys- tems. The work presented here offers a

  8. Representation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in regional climate model: sensitivity to convective physics

    KAUST Repository

    Umakanth, U.

    2015-11-07

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the performance of regional climate model (RegCM) version 4.4 over south Asian CORDEX domain to simulate seasonal mean and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) during Indian summer monsoon. Three combinations of Grell (G) and Emanuel (E) cumulus schemes namely, RegCM-EG, RegCM-EE and RegCM-GE have been used. The model is initialized at 1st January, 2000 for a 13-year continuous simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km. The models reasonably simulate the seasonal mean low level wind pattern though they differ in simulating mean precipitation pattern. All models produce dry bias in precipitation over Indian land region except in RegCM-EG where relatively low value of dry bias is observed. On seasonal scale, the performance of RegCM-EG is more close to observation though it fails at intraseasonal time scales. In wave number-frequency spectrum, the observed peak in zonal wind (850 hPa) at 40–50 day scale is captured by all models with a slight change in amplitude, however, the 40–50 day peak in precipitation is completely absent in RegCM-EG. The space–time characteristics of MISOs are well captured by RegCM-EE over RegCM-GE, however it fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent. Except RegCM-EE all other models completely underestimates the moisture advection from Equatorial Indian Ocean onto Indian land region during life-cycle of MISOs. The characteristics of MISOs are studied for strong (SM) and weak (WM) monsoon years and the differences in model performances are analyzed. The wavelet spectrum of rainfall over central India denotes that, the SM years are dominated by high frequency oscillations (period <20 days) whereas little higher periods (>30 days) along with dominated low periods (<20 days) observed during WM years. During SM, RegCM-EE is dominated with high frequency oscillations (period <20 days) whereas in WM, RegCM-EE is dominated with periods >20

  9. Representation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in regional climate model: sensitivity to convective physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umakanth, U.; Kesarkar, Amit P.; Raju, Attada; Vijaya Bhaskar Rao, S.

    2016-08-01

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the performance of regional climate model (RegCM) version 4.4 over south Asian CORDEX domain to simulate seasonal mean and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) during Indian summer monsoon. Three combinations of Grell (G) and Emanuel (E) cumulus schemes namely, RegCM-EG, RegCM-EE and RegCM-GE have been used. The model is initialized at 1st January, 2000 for a 13-year continuous simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km. The models reasonably simulate the seasonal mean low level wind pattern though they differ in simulating mean precipitation pattern. All models produce dry bias in precipitation over Indian land region except in RegCM-EG where relatively low value of dry bias is observed. On seasonal scale, the performance of RegCM-EG is more close to observation though it fails at intraseasonal time scales. In wave number-frequency spectrum, the observed peak in zonal wind (850 hPa) at 40-50 day scale is captured by all models with a slight change in amplitude, however, the 40-50 day peak in precipitation is completely absent in RegCM-EG. The space-time characteristics of MISOs are well captured by RegCM-EE over RegCM-GE, however it fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent. Except RegCM-EE all other models completely underestimates the moisture advection from Equatorial Indian Ocean onto Indian land region during life-cycle of MISOs. The characteristics of MISOs are studied for strong (SM) and weak (WM) monsoon years and the differences in model performances are analyzed. The wavelet spectrum of rainfall over central India denotes that, the SM years are dominated by high frequency oscillations (period 30 days) along with dominated low periods (20 days. Except RegCM-EE, all other models fail to capture the observed spectral features for SM and WM years.

  10. Experimental Results of Site Calibration and Sensitivity Measurements in OTR for UWB Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanadham, Chandana; Rao, P. Mallikrajuna

    2016-08-01

    System calibration and parameter accuracy measurement of electronic support measures (ESM) systems is a major activity, carried out by electronic warfare (EW) engineers. These activities are very critical and needs good understanding in the field of microwaves, antennas, wave propagation, digital and communication domains. EW systems are broad band, built with state-of-the art electronic hardware, installed on different varieties of military platforms to guard country's security from time to time. EW systems operate in wide frequency ranges, typically in the order of thousands of MHz, hence these are ultra wide band (UWB) systems. Few calibration activities are carried within the system and in the test sites, to meet the accuracies of final specifications. After calibration, parameters are measured for their accuracies either in feed mode by injecting the RF signals into the front end or in radiation mode by transmitting the RF signals on to system antenna. To carry out these activities in radiation mode, a calibrated open test range (OTR) is necessary in the frequency band of interest. Thus site calibration of OTR is necessary to be carried out before taking up system calibration and parameter measurements. This paper presents the experimental results of OTR site calibration and sensitivity measurements of UWB systems in radiation mode.

  11. Seismic hazard analysis application of methodology, results, and sensitivity studies. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernreuter, D. L

    1981-08-08

    As part of the Site Specific Spectra Project, this report seeks to identify the sources of and minimize uncertainty in estimates of seismic hazards in the Eastern United States. Findings are being used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to develop a synthesis among various methods that can be used in evaluating seismic hazard at the various plants in the Eastern United States. In this volume, one of a five-volume series, we discuss the application of the probabilistic approach using expert opinion. The seismic hazard is developed at nine sites in the Central and Northeastern United States, and both individual experts' and synthesis results are obtained. We also discuss and evaluate the ground motion models used to develop the seismic hazard at the various sites, analyzing extensive sensitivity studies to determine the important parameters and the significance of uncertainty in them. Comparisons are made between probabilistic and real spectral for a number of Eastern earthquakes. The uncertainty in the real spectra is examined as a function of the key earthquake source parameters. In our opinion, the single most important conclusion of this study is that the use of expert opinion to supplement the sparse data available on Eastern United States earthquakes is a viable approach for determining estimted seismic hazard in this region of the country. 29 refs., 15 tabs.

  12. Glacial marine carbon cycle sensitivities to Atlantic ocean circulation reorganization by coupled climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. O. Chikamoto

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM marine carbon cycle sensitivity experiments is conducted to test the effect of different physical processes, as simulated by two atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM experiments, on the atmospheric pCO2. One AOGCM solution exhibits an increase in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW formation, whereas the other mimics an increase in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW associated with a weaker NADW. Due to enhanced gas solubility associated with lower sea surface temperature, both experiments generate a reduction of atmospheric pCO2 by about 20–23 ppm. However, neither a weakening of NADW nor an increase of AABW formation causes a large atmospheric pCO2 change. A marked enhancement in AABW formation is required to represent the reconstructed vertical gradient of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC during LGM conditions. The efficiency of Southern Ocean nutrient utilization reduces in response to an enhanced AABW formation, which counteracts the circulation-induced ocean carbon uptake.

  13. Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

    2016-01-01

    Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

  14. Sensitivity of the Carbon Storage of Potential Vegetation to Historical Climate Variability and CO2 in Continental China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MAO Jiafu; WANG Bin; DAI Yongjiu

    2009-01-01

    The interest in the national levels of the terrestrial carbon sink and its spatial and temporal variability with the climate and CO2 concentrations has been increasing. How the climate and the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the last century affect the carbon storage in continental China was investigated in this study by using the Modified Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (M-SDGVM). The estimates of the M-SDGVM indicated that during the past 100 years a combination of increasing CO2 with historical temperature and precipitation variability in continental China have caused the total vegetation carbon storage to increase by 2.04 Pg C, with 2.07 Pg C gained in the vegetation biomass but 0.03 Pg C lost from the organic soil carbon matter. The increasing CO2 concentration in the 20th century is primarily responsible for the increase of the total potential vegetation carbon. These factorial experiments show that temperature variability alone decreases the total carbon storage by 1.36 Pg C and precipitation variability alone causes a loss of 1.99 Pg C. The effect of the increasing CO2 concentration alone increased the total carbon storage in the potential vegetation of China by 3.22 Pg C over the past 100 years. With the changing of the climate, the CO2 fertilization on China's ecosystems is the result of the enhanced net biome production (NBP), which is caused by a greater stimulation of the gross primary production (GPP) than the total soil-vegetation respiration. Our study also shows notable interannual and decadal variations in the net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in China due to the historical climate variability.

  15. Primary School Student Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change: Comparing the Results Given by Concept Maps and Communication Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratinen, Ilkka; Viiri, Jouni; Lehesvuori, Sami

    2012-11-01

    Climate change is a complex environmental problem that can be used to examine students' understanding, gained through classroom communication, of climate change and its interactions. The present study examines a series of four science sessions given to a group of primary school student teachers (n = 20). This includes analysis of the communication styles used and the students' pre- and post-conceptualisation of climate change based on results obtained via essay writing and drawings. The essays and drawings concerned the students' unprompted pre- and post-conceptions about climate change, collected before and after each of the four inquiry-based science sessions (in physics, chemistry, biology and geography). Concept mapping was used in the analysis of the students' responses. The communication used in the four sessions was analysed with a communicative approach in order to find out the discussion about climate change between teacher and students. The analyses indicated that the students did not have the knowledge or the courage to participate in discussion, but post-conceptualisation map showed that students' thinking had become more coherent after the four sessions. Given the results of the present study, proposals for using concepts maps and/or communication analysis in studying students' conceptions are presented.

  16. Threshold responses in cinnamic-aldehyde-sensitive subjects: results and methodological aspects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, J D; Andersen, Klaus Ejner; Rastogi, S C

    1996-01-01

    tests and 6-week graded use tests with 0.02, 0.1 and 0.8% cinnamic aldehyde in ethanol was studied in a group of cinnamic-aldehyde-sensitive eczema patients. The minimum effect level demonstrated was 0.02% cinnamic aldehyde on patch testing and 0.1% cinnamic aldehyde on use testing, which are allowed...... exposure information is needed to evaluate more fully the consequences of cinnamic aldehyde sensitivity....

  17. Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Noblet-Ducoudré, de N.; Cruz, F.T.; Davin, E.L.; Bonan, G.B.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Delire, C.; Ganzeveld, L.N.; Gayler, V.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Lawrence, P.J.; Molen, van der M.K.; Müller, C.; Reick, C.H.; Senevirantne, S.I.; Strengers, B.J.; Voldoire, A.

    2009-01-01

    Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The imposed LCC led to statistically significant decreases in the northern hemisphere summer latent heat flux in three models, and increases in three models. F

  18. Assessment of Equal Opportunity Climate: Results of the 1989 Navy-wide Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-05-01

    Development Center. Dansby, M. R., & Landis, D. (1991). Measuring equal opportunity climate in the military environment. International Journal of Intercultural Relations , 15...ethnicity, and gender issues: A historical review. International Journal of Intercultural Relations , 15, 407-426. Siegel, A. L., & Tumey, J. R

  19. Modeling drifting snow in Antarctica with a regional climate model: 2. Results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a model study of the impact of drifting snow on the lower atmosphere, surface snow characteristics, and surface mass balance of Antarctica. We use the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.1/ANT with a high horizontal resolution (27 km), equipped with a drifting snow routine

  20. Cloud forming properties of ambient aerosol in the Netherlands and resultant shortwave radiative forcing of climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khlystov, A.

    1998-01-01

    This thesis discusses properties of ambient aerosols in the Netherlands which are controlling the magnitude of the local aerosol radiative forcing. Anthropogenic aerosols influence climate by changing the radiative transfer through the atmosphere via two effects, one is direct and a second is indire

  1. Aerobiological importance and allergic sensitization to Amaranthaceae under arid climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvira-Rendueles, Belén; Zapata, Juan J; Miralles, Juan C; Moreno, José M; García-Sánchez, Antonio; Negral, Luis; Moreno-Grau, Stella

    2017-04-01

    Species of the Amaranthaceae family are abundant in the Southeast of Spain, one of the driest areas in Europe. The Amaranthaceae include species of interest from the point of view of allergic diseases. With the expansion of aridity, many species belonging to this family will be favoured. The objectives of this study were: first, to define the prevalence of sensitization to Amaranthaceae pollen in allergic patients in the Southeast of Spain; second, to present the aerobiological features of this taxon; and, finally, to demarcate those periods of increased risk of suffering allergic symptoms with the aim of improving the diagnosis and prevention of hay fever. Skin prick tests with extracts of pollen were performed on patients with symptoms of respiratory allergy referred for consultation for the first time in Almería and Murcia. Samples of the atmospheric bioaerosol were taken using a Lanzoni VPPS 2000 volumetric sampler, samples treatment and subsequent counts being carried out according to the methodology approved by the Spanish Aerobiological Network. The statistical significance of the correlation between aerobiological and meteorological data from this arid region in 2010-2014 was determined. The aerobiological study revealed the presence of two distinct peaks responsible for pollen symptoms. The flowering of this taxon is especially noteworthy in the city of Cartagena, where it supposes 94% of the total pollen collected in these periods. This situation converts Amaranthaceae pollen in the second leading cause of hay fever in the Southeast of Spain. With the expansion of aridity, an increase in the presence of these species is expected. Bearing in mind their prevalence in the spring and summer/autumn periods and their extensive presence in the bioaerosol, this makes data from Southeastern Spanish a benchmark with respect to the aerobiology of this type of pollen.

  2. Uncertainty vs. learning in climate policy: Some classical results and new directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lange, A. [Univ. of Maryland (United States); Treich, N. [Univ. of Toulouse (France)

    2007-07-01

    Climate policy decisions today have to be made under substantial uncertainty: the impact of accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is not perfectly known, the future economic and social consequences of climate change, in particular the valuation of possible damages, are uncertain. However, learning will change the basis of making future decisions on abatement policies. These important issues of uncertainty and learning are often presented in a colloquial sense. Two opposing effects are typically put forward: First, uncertainty about future climate damage, which is often associated with the possibility of a catastrophic scenario is said to give a premium to slow down global warming and therefore to increase abatement efforts today. Second learning opportunities will reduce scientific undertainty about climate damage over time. This is often used as an argument to postpone abatement efforts until new information is received. The effects of uncertainty and learning on the optimal design of current climate policy are still much debated both in the academic and the political arena. In this paper, the authors study and contrast the effect of uncertainty and learning in a two-decision model that encompasses most existing microeconomics models of climate change. They first consider the common expected utility framework: While uncertainty has generally no or a negative effect on welfare, learning has always a positive, and thus opposite, effect. The effects of both uncertainty and learning on decisions are less clear. Neither uncertainty nor learning can be used as an argument to increase or reduce emissions today, independently on the degree of risk aversion of the decision-marker and on the nature of irreversibility constraints. The authors then deviate from the expected utility framework and consider a model with ambiguity aversion. The model accounts well for situations of imprecise or multiple probability distributions, as present in the context of climate

  3. Tight coupling between atmospheric ρCO2 and temperature change during the Late Triassic: observational evidence for enhanced climate sensitivity in a hothouse state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knobbe, T.; Schaller, M. F.

    2015-12-01

    Climate sensitivity is the change in global equilibrium surface temperature per doubling of atmospheric ρCO2. Modern climate sensitivity, based on paleoclimate data and fast-feedback processes (Charney sensitivity), is observed to be ~3°C per doubling of CO2. However, Charney sensitivity may not be representative of ice-free hothouse states that have dominated most of Earth history where sensitivity may be higher. Few opportunities exist to empirically determine climate sensitivity during a hothouse state based on contemporaneous observations of ρCO2 and temperature. Here we present evidence for tight coupling between ρCO2 and temperature during the Late Triassic (end-Norian through Rhaetian) from the Newark basin and Lagonegro/Sicani basins, respectively. Detailed magnetostratigraphy and biostratigraphy allows for correlation between the Lagonegro and Sicani basins (Italy), which are magnetostratigraphically correlated to the Newark basin. Temperature is calculated from δ18O values of conodont apatite published from the Lagonegro and Sicani basins, while ρCO2 estimates are from pedogenic carbonates in the Newark basin. We find a distinct rise and subsequent fall in atmospheric ρCO2 that is precisely mirrored by a contemporaneous rise and fall in temperature. Between 212-209 Ma, we observe a concomitant increase in ρCO2 (1900 to 4800 ppm) and temperature (20 to 27°C), followed by a more protracted concomitant decrease in atmospheric ρCO2 (4800 to 2200 ppm) and temperature (27 to 21°C) from 209-202 Ma. We use simple numerical methods to calculate climate sensitivity for the Late Triassic from these complementary data sets and find that sensitivity through both a doubling and subsequent halving of pCO2 are on the order of 5°C, in close agreement with empirically based model assessments from younger sections. We note sensitivities as high as 7°C/doubling are observed when using the lowest pCO2 estimate allowed by the formal error window assigned to the

  4. Planktonic Foraminifera as Sensitive Recorders of Climate Variability in the Eastern Mediterranean During the Last ~90 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almogi-Labin, A.; Bar-Matthews, M.; Ayalon, A.; Paterne, M.

    2014-12-01

    Planktonic foraminifera (PF) are widely used in Quaternary paleoceanography as carriers of oxygen stable isotope signal. This signal is one of the main tools for establishing chronostratigraphy and determining the nature of global and local glacial and interglacial cycles. In this study, the focus is on the PF assemblages which are sensitive recorders of climate and water column properties including the degree of water column stratification and trophic levels. In order to reconstruct the climate variability of the last ~90 ka, core MDVAL9501 (980 m water depth), taken by R/V Marion Dufresnae, SE of Cyprus, was studied. A δ18O-Globigerinoides ruber stratigraphy was established and correlated with well-dated (U/Th) speleothem records of Soreq Cave and radiocarbon dates. The sedimentary record in this core covers the last ~90ka. Variations in PF assemblage composition indicate that conditions shifted between two main climatic scenarios. During the last glacial cooler, more aerated, less stratified and more mesotrophic water column persisted with distinct seasonality. This is evident from the occurrence of two deep water dwellers Globorotalia inflata being abundant from 75 to 50 ka BP and G. scitula from 55 to 15 ka BP (with respective SST of 15-16 ºC and 11-13 ºC) and accompanied continuously by the cold water species Neogloboqudrina pachyderma and Globigerina bulloides. Among the "warm" water species G. ruber is nearly the only "survivor" during the glacial period comprising 25-50% of the assemblage with lower values corresponding to minima in D-O events. During Holocene, water column was warmer, more stratified, mostly oligotrophic with reduced seasonality. The dominating species were G. ruber and other "warm" water species comprising >75% of the assemblage and occurring in low numbers. An exception are sapropel S1 (early Holocene) and S3 (MIS 5.1) periods, when lower δ18O and highest TOC values prevail with significantly increased numerical abundance of PF

  5. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

  6. Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Experimental Hygrothermal Performance. Cloquet Residential Research Facility Laboratory Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, Louise F. [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Harmon, Anna C. [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    2015-04-09

    This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes. NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. These data currently span the period from November 10, 2012 through May 31, 2014 and are anticipated to be extended through November 2014. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.

  7. The sensitivity of stand-scale photosynthesis and transpiration to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijt, B.; Barton, C.; Rey, A.; Jarvis, P. G.

    The 3-dimensional forest model MAESTRO was used to simulate daily and annual photosynthesis and transpiration fluxes of forest stands and the sensitivity of these fluxes to potential changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]), temperature, water stress and phenology. The effects of possible feed-backs from increased leaf area and limitations to leaf nutrition were simulated by imposing changes in leaf area and nitrogen content. Two different tree species were considered: Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr., a conifer with long needle longevity and large leaf area, and Betula pendula Roth., a broad-leaved deciduous species with an open canopy and small leaf area. Canopy photosynthetic production in trees was predicted to increase with atmospheric [CO2] and length of the growing season and to decrease with increased water stress. Associated increases in leaf area increased production further only in the B. pendula canopy, where the original leaf area was relatively small. Assumed limitations in N uptake affected B. pendula more than P. sitchensis. The effect of increased temperature was shown to depend on leaf area and nitrogen content. The different sensitivities of the two species were related to their very different canopy structure. Increased [CO2] reduced transpiration, but larger leaf area, early leaf growth, and higher temperature all led to increased water use. These effects were limited by feedbacks from soil water stress. The simulations suggest that, with the projected climate change, there is some increase in stand annual `water use efficiency', but the actual water losses to the atmosphere may not always decrease.

  8. The sensitivity of stand-scale photosynthesis and transpiration to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Kruijt

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The 3-dimensional forest model MAESTRO was used to simulate daily and annual photosynthesis and transpiration fluxes of forest stands and the sensitivity of these fluxes to potential changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2], temperature, water stress and phenology. The effects of possible feed-backs from increased leaf area and limitations to leaf nutrition were simulated by imposing changes in leaf area and nitrogen content. Two different tree species were considered: Picea sitchensis (Bong. Carr., a conifer with long needle longevity and large leaf area, and Betula pendula Roth., a broad-leaved deciduous species with an open canopy and small leaf area. Canopy photosynthetic production in trees was predicted to increase with atmospheric [CO2] and length of the growing season and to decrease with increased water stress. Associated increases in leaf area increased production further only in the B. pendula canopy, where the original leaf area was relatively small. Assumed limitations in N uptake affected B. pendula more than P. sitchensis. The effect of increased temperature was shown to depend on leaf area and nitrogen content. The different sensitivities of the two species were related to their very different canopy structure. Increased [CO2] reduced transpiration, but larger leaf area, early leaf growth, and higher temperature all led to increased water use. These effects were limited by feedbacks from soil water stress. The simulations suggest that, with the projected climate change, there is some increase in stand annual `water use efficiency', but the actual water losses to the atmosphere may not always decrease.

  9. Determining the sensitivity of the high mountain region in Northern Romania to climate and land use changes through multi-proxy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurdean, Angelica; Geanta, Anca; Tantau, Ioan; Auer, Andreea; Hutchinson, Simon

    2013-04-01

    Climate and land use changes can have a great impact on high altitude environments due to their species' narrow tolerance capabilities, habitat fragmentation and habitat restriction. Since trees at the timberline and the treeline ecotone grow at their temperature and soil tolerance limit, even small alterations in these parameters can result in marked changes in the position of the treeline ecotone, diversity, and species composition. Current and future climate warming is anticipated to shift the tree and timberlines upwards, whereas land use changes can drive this movement in the opposite direction. Therefore the long-term responses of vegetation to past climate variations and land use changes are of particular relevance for the prediction of future vegetation change in high mountain areas. Here, we use a multi-proxy analysis (pollen, spores, micro and macrocharcoal, mineral magnetic properties and AMS 14C dating) of a 1m lacustrine sequence covering the last 5000 years located in the subalpine zone (1910 m a.s.l.) in the Rodna Mountains (Northern Romanian Carpathians) to determine the sensitivity of high mountain habitats (i.e., movements of the timberline and treeline ecotones, and changes in vegetation composition diversity) in response to climate, fires and land use. The pollen and stomata records reveal regional forests dominated by Pinus sylvestris between ca. 5000 and 4250 cal yrs BP, which were replaced by Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica from about 4200 cal yrs BP onwards. The proximity of the lake was treeless, dominated by sub-alpine shrubs (Alnus viridis), alpine herbaceous communities (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Apiaceae, Asteraceae Tubuliflorae, A. Liguliflorae, Thalictrum) and ruderal species (Artemisia, Rumex, Chenopodiaceae) through almost the whole record. However, Pinus stomata found between 5000 and 4000 cal yr BP probably indicate a higher position of the treeline and the local occurrence of Pinus before 4000 cal yr BP. Our results show

  10. Land and Land-use Change in the Climate Sensitive High Plains: An Automated Approach with Landsat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, Alexander F.; Williams, D. L. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The High Plains is an economically important and climatologically sensitive region of the United States and Canada. The High Plains contain 100,000 sq km of Holocene sand dunes and sand sheets that are currently stabilized by natural vegetation. Droughts and the larger threat of global warming are climate phenomena that could cause depletion of natural vegetation and make this region susceptible to sand dune reactivation. The original proposal was directed toward the use of Landsat TM data to establish the state and ongoing changes of the surface in the 1.2 million sq. km, semi-arid High Plains region of the central US, A key objective was to develop a model to predict the reactivation of the 100,000 sq. km of Holocene dunes found on the High Plains during an extended drought. At least one Landsat 5 image per year for 1985, 1988 and 1996 was obtained for 32 scenes on the High Plains to coincide with wet and dry years. Additional Landsat 7 data were acquired for 1999 and 2000 primarily for Colorado and Nebraska. As luck would have it, there was no severe drought during the study period 1985-2000. Attention was focused on developing methods for mapping dry vs. green vegetation on sparsely vegetated rangelands in sandy soils, since these were the areas most susceptible to surface reactivation during a drought.

  11. Plant responses to elevated temperatures: a field study on phenological sensitivity and fitness responses to simulated climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springate, David A; Kover, Paula X

    2014-02-01

    Significant changes in plant phenology have been observed in response to increases in mean global temperatures. There are concerns that accelerated phenologies can negatively impact plant populations. However, the fitness consequence of changes in phenology in response to elevated temperature is not well understood, particularly under field conditions. We address this issue by exposing a set of recombinant inbred lines of Arabidopsis thaliana to a simulated global warming treatment in the field. We find that plants exposed to elevated temperatures flower earlier, as predicted by photothermal models. However, contrary to life-history trade-off expectations, they also flower at a larger vegetative size, suggesting that warming probably causes acceleration in vegetative development. Although warming increases mean fitness (fruit production) by ca. 25%, there is a significant genotype-by-environment interaction. Changes in fitness rank indicate that imminent climate change can cause populations to be maladapted in their new environment, if adaptive evolution is limited. Thus, changes in the genetic composition of populations are likely, depending on the species' generation time and the speed of temperature change. Interestingly, genotypes that show stronger phenological responses have higher fitness under elevated temperatures, suggesting that phenological sensitivity might be a good indicator of success under elevated temperature at the genotypic level as well as at the species level.

  12. Plant responses to elevated temperatures: a field study on phenological sensitivity and fitness responses to simulated climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springate, David A; Kover, Paula X

    2014-01-01

    Significant changes in plant phenology have been observed in response to increases in mean global temperatures. There are concerns that accelerated phenologies can negatively impact plant populations. However, the fitness consequence of changes in phenology in response to elevated temperature is not well understood, particularly under field conditions. We address this issue by exposing a set of recombinant inbred lines of Arabidopsis thaliana to a simulated global warming treatment in the field. We find that plants exposed to elevated temperatures flower earlier, as predicted by photothermal models. However, contrary to life-history trade-off expectations, they also flower at a larger vegetative size, suggesting that warming probably causes acceleration in vegetative development. Although warming increases mean fitness (fruit production) by ca. 25%, there is a significant genotype-by-environment interaction. Changes in fitness rank indicate that imminent climate change can cause populations to be maladapted in their new environment, if adaptive evolution is limited. Thus, changes in the genetic composition of populations are likely, depending on the species’ generation time and the speed of temperature change. Interestingly, genotypes that show stronger phenological responses have higher fitness under elevated temperatures, suggesting that phenological sensitivity might be a good indicator of success under elevated temperature at the genotypic level as well as at the species level. PMID:24130095

  13. Sensitivity of the Runoff Characteristics of Small Alpine Catchments to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meißl, Gertraud; Klebinder, Klaus; Formayer, Herbert; Kerl, Florian; Schöberl, Friedrich; Geitner, Clemens; Markart, Gerhard; Kohl, Bernhard; Nadeem, Imran; Leidinger, David; Bronstert, Axel; Bürger, Gerd

    2016-04-01

    Floods and debris flows in small torrent catchments (Nardus stricta) may show increased surface runoff in case of precipitation events with high intensity after dry periods. The analyses of the maximum intensity of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase up to 10% till the end of the century. If one of these trends equalizes the other out resulting in unchanged occurrence probabilities of extreme runoff events, cannot be answered generally because of the local characteristics of relevant processes and uncertainties regarding the modelling chain. Regardless of the open question about its return period, peak runoff of extreme events may increase by approximately 25% comparing to current peak runoff due to the higher rain intensities.

  14. Climate sensitivity of reproduction in a mast-seeding boreal conifer across its distributional range from lowland to treeline forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, Carl A; Schmidt, Joshua H; Johnstone, Jill F

    2014-03-01

    Mast-seeding conifers such as Picea glauca exhibit synchronous production of large seed crops over wide areas, suggesting climate factors as possible triggers for episodic high seed production. Rapidly changing climatic conditions may thus alter the tempo and spatial pattern of masting of dominant species with potentially far-reaching ecological consequences. Understanding the future reproductive dynamics of ecosystems including boreal forests, which may be dominated by mast-seeding species, requires identifying the specific cues that drive variation in reproductive output across landscape gradients and among years. Here we used annual data collected at three sites spanning an elevation gradient in interior Alaska, USA between 1986 and 2011 to produce the first quantitative models for climate controls over both seedfall and seed viability in P. glauca, a dominant boreal conifer. We identified positive associations between seedfall and increased summer precipitation and decreased summer warmth in all years except for the year prior to seedfall. Seed viability showed a contrasting response, with positive correlations to summer warmth in all years analyzed except for one, and an especially positive response to warm and wet conditions in the seedfall year. Finally, we found substantial reductions in reproductive potential of P. glauca at high elevation due to significantly reduced seed viability there. Our results indicate that major variation in the reproductive potential of this species may occur in different landscape positions in response to warming, with decreasing reproductive success in areas prone to drought stress contrasted with increasing success in higher elevation areas currently limited by cool summer temperatures.

  15. Changing Climate Sensitivity in Response to Forest-Tundra Snow Albedo Feedback during the mid to late Pliocene Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiewonsky, P.

    2015-12-01

    The forest-tundra snow albedo feedback is an important feedback in Earth's climate system, especially due to its potential role in modulating glacial cycles. Until now, little research has been done on how the strength of this feedback might vary with the background climate state. Over the last 4 million years, I hypothesize that the feedback has been generally weaker under warm Northern Hemispheric conditions when tundra has been primarily confined to the high Arctic and forest has extended to most of the Arctic coastline than under cooler Northern Hemispheric conditions in which the forest-tundra boundary has generally lain to the south, extending across the interiors of the large continental land masses. To test the hypothesis of the weakened/strengthened feedback, I used an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity that consists of a dynamic terrestrial vegetation model coupled to a climate model. A set of time-slice experiments with different orbital and greenhouse gas concentrations were analyzed. In one set of experiments, the feedback gain with respect to annual average top-of-atmosphere net short wave radiation due to vegetation was 1.42 for modern conditions but only 1.14 for the mid-Pliocene. Additionally, we compared experiments with different shortwave-radiation parameterizations, which differed in the amount of shortwave energy flux reaching the surface (and subsequently affecting vegetative biomass). These techniques allowed us to isolate the mechanisms responsible for the varying strength of the forest-tundra snow albedo feedback. The results also show that many factors affect the strength of feedback. In this presentation I will concentrate on the availability of land for conversion of forest to tundra (and vice versa), cloud cover near the forest-tundra boundary, and the integrated surface insolation contrast between tundra and forest during the snow-covered season.

  16. Climate change sensitivity of the African ivory nut palm, Hyphaene petersiana Klotzsch ex Mart. (Arecaceae) - a keystone species in SE Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blach-Overgaard, A.; Svenning, J.-C.; Balslev, H.

    2009-11-01

    Africa is the most vulnerable continent to future climate change. Profound changes are projected for southwestern Africa with increased drying, notably with delayed onset of the rainy season in September-November, and temperature increases in all seasons. The projected climate changes combined with land-use changes are thought to constitute the main threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. To be able to predict the potential impact on biodiversity, it is crucial to achieve a better insight into the controls of contemporary species ranges. Using species distribution modeling, we assessed the climate sensitivity of the key-stone palm species Hyphaene petersiana (African ivory nut palm) in southern Africa. We tested the relative roles of climate vs. non-climatic range-controls and found that climate had a clear effect on the range of H. petersiana and that especially water-related variables (annual precipitation and precipitation driest quarter) were of high importance. Nevertheless, latitude was the overall most dominant variable, reflecting spatial constraints on the continental-scale distribution. Of the remaining non-climatic factors, soil type and human influence were as important as the climatic factors. A future decrease in annual precipitation below 400 mm and hydrological changes towards drier conditions could cause a dramatic decline in H. petersiana populations, while the influence of temperature changes is less clear. The ongoing, unsustainable utilization pressures on this palm species by humans and livestock are likely to exacerbate the negative effect of future climate changes on its populations, especially, given the expected human population increase in Africa.

  17. Direction-sensitive dark matter search results in a surface laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miuchi, Kentaro [Cosmic-Ray Group, Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University Kitashirakawa-oiwakecho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)], E-mail: miuchi@cr.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Hattori, Kaori; Kabuki, Shigeto; Kubo, Hidetoshi; Kurosawa, Shunsuke; Nishimura, Hironobu; Okada, Yoko; Takada, Atsushi; Tanimori, Toru; Tsuchiya, Ken' ichi; Ueno, Kazuki [Cosmic-Ray Group, Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University Kitashirakawa-oiwakecho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan); Sekiya, Hiroyuki; Takeda, Atsushi [Kamioka Observatory, ICRR, University of Tokyo Higashi-Mozumi, Kamioka cho, Hida 506-1205 (Japan)

    2007-10-11

    We developed a three-dimensional gaseous tracking device and performed a direction-sensitive dark matter search in a surface laboratory. By using 150 Torr carbon-tetrafluoride (CF{sub 4}) gas, we obtained a sky map drawn with the recoil directions of the carbon and fluorine nuclei, and set the first limit on the spin-dependent WIMP (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles)-proton cross section by a direction-sensitive method. Thus, we showed that a WIMP-search experiment with a gaseous tracking device can actually set limits. Furthermore, we demonstrated that this method will potentially play a certain role in revealing the nature of dark matter when a low-background large-volume detector is developed.

  18. First underground results with NEWAGE-0.3a direction-sensitive dark matter detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miuchi, Kentaro, E-mail: miuchi@cr.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.j [Cosmic-Ray Group, Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University Kitashirakawa-oiwakecho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8502 (Japan); Nishimura, Hironobu; Hattori, Kaori; Higashi, Naoki; Ida, Chihiro; Iwaki, Satoshi; Kabuki, Shigeto; Kubo, Hidetoshi; Kurosawa, Shunsuke; Nakamura, Kiseki; Parker, Joseph; Sawano, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Michiaki; Tanimori, Toru; Taniue, Kojiro; Ueno, Kazuki [Cosmic-Ray Group, Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University Kitashirakawa-oiwakecho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8502 (Japan); Sekiya, Hiroyuki; Takeda, Atsushi [Kamioka Observatory, ICRR, The University of Tokyo Higashi-Mozumi, Kamioka cho, Hida 506-1205 (Japan); Tsuchiya, Ken' ichi [National Research Institute of Police Science 6-3-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-0882 (Japan); Takada, Atsushi [Scientific Balloon Laboratory, ISAS, JAXA Yoshinodai 3-1-1, Sagamihara, Kanagawa, 229-8510 (Japan)

    2010-03-15

    A direction-sensitive dark matter search experiment at Kamioka underground laboratory with the NEWAGE-0.3a detector was performed. The NEWAGE-0.3a detector is a gaseous micro-time-projection chamber filled with CF{sub 4} gas at 152 Torr. The fiducial volume and target mass are 20x25x31 cm{sup 3} and 0.0115 kg, respectively. With an exposure of 0.524 kg days, improved spin-dependent weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP)-proton cross section limits by a direction-sensitive method were achieved including a new record of 5400 pb for 150 GeV/c{sup 2} WIMPs. We studied the remaining background and found that ambient gamma-rays contributed about one-fifth of the remaining background and radioactive contaminants inside the gas chamber contributed the rest.

  19. The sensitivity of soil O2 and redox biogeochemistry to landscape position and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silver, W. L.; Ruan, L.; O'Connell, C.; Gutiérrez del Arroyo, O.

    2015-12-01

    Soil oxygen (O2) availability and associated redox dynamics are key drivers of carbon and nitrogen cycling and greenhouse gas emissions in terrestrial ecosystems. However, few studies have measured soil O2 availability, and even fewer have related this to biogeochemical cycling over space and time. Redox dynamics are likely to play a particularly important role in humid tropical forests characterized by high rainfall, near constant warm temperatures, high biological activity, and finely textured soils, all of which contribute to periodic O2 depletion throughout the soil profile. These ecosystems exhibit rapid C turnover and are a globally important source of the major greenhouse gases. We report on an extensive network of galvanic O2 sensors and time-domain reflectometry along topographic gradients in a lower montane wet tropical forest in Puerto Rico (n = 105 sensors). Within the sensor field we also installed three automated surface flux chambers in each topographic zone (ridge, slope and valley). A Cavity Ring-Down Spectroscopy (CRDS) gas analyzer was used to measure pseudo-continuous fluxes of CO2, N2O, and CH4. Soil O2 concentrations decrease nonlinearly from ridges to valleys along topographic gradients. Soil moisture was the best single predictor of soil O2 concentrations explaining over 50% of the variability in the data, even in these well-drained soils. Drought conditions dramatically altered soil O2 dynamics in both time and space, and showed that redox drivers differed by topographic position. Both ridges and slopes produced higher CO2 fluxes than valleys. Daily CH4 emissions went up to ~2000 g CH4 ha-1d-1 for valleys (hot spots and hot moments). Soil O2 dynamics also helped explain patterns in reactive Fe species and C storage, as well as pH along the catena. Our results highlight the potential for soil O2 concentrations as an integrator of biogeochemical dynamics in variable redox environments. They also provide a mechanism for identifying and

  20. Climate change and permafrost stability in the eastern Canada Cordillera:The results of 33 years of measurements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Stuart; A.Harris

    2009-01-01

    Over the last 33 years,a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm,Alberta,north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon.Taken together with the data from the US National Weather Service and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service,the results indicate a cooling of mean annual air temperature south of Calgary,no significant change in Calgary,a slight warming at Jasper,and a major warming at Summit Lake,west of Fort Nelson.In contrast,the south eastern and central Yukon show only a minor warming trend that lies well within the limits of a sixty-year record measured by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service.Along the Mackenzie valley and on the North Slope of Alaska,the mean annual air temperature is rising.Permafrost is aggrading on Plateau Mountain,degrading at Summit Lake,and appears to be stable in southern Yukon and southern Alaska.This is in contrast to the warming occurring on the Arctic coastal plain and along the Mackenzie valley.It therefore appears that changes in climate vary considera-bly from place to place,and even where warming may occur,it may not continue indefinitely.There has been a northward shift of the arctic front due to a weakening of air pressure in the Yukon and Alaska relative to the continental tropical(cT) and maritime polar(mT) air masses to the south.Any actual changes that may be occurring appear to undergo amplification along the Mackenzie valley and Arctic coastal plain and reduction by buffering in the interior Yukon and Alaskan mountains,a result of mi-cro-environmental factors.Continued,careful monitoring of the climate is required and needs to be expanded in the National Parks in the mountains in order to provide data on the changes that may be taking place.Such measurements can provide a sound basis for interpreting ecological and other climate-related data.The existing climate models are not working satisfactorily because

  1. Climate change and permafrost stability in the eastern Canada Cordillera: The results of 33 years of measurements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Stuart A. Harris

    2009-01-01

    Over the last 33 years, a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm, Alberta, north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon. Taken together with the data from the US National Weather Service and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service, the results indicate a cooling of mean annual air temperature south of Calgary, no significant change in Calgary, a slight warming at Jasper, and a major warming at Summit Lake, west of Fort Nelson. In contrast, the south eastern and central Yukon show only a minor warming trend that lies well within the limits of a sixty-year record measured by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. Along the Mackenzie valley and on the North Slope of Alaska, the mean annual air temperature is rising. Permafrost is aggrading on Plateau Mountain,degrading at Summit Lake, and appears to be stable in southern Yukon and southern Alaska. This is in contrast to the warming occurring on the Arctic coastal plain and along the Mackenzie valley. It therefore appears that changes in climate vary considerably from place to place, and even where warming may occur, it may not continue indefinitely. There has been a northward shift of the arctic front due to a weakening of air pressure in the Yukon and Alaska relative to the continental tropical (cT) and maritime polar (mT) air masses to the south. Any actual changes that may be occurring appear to undergo amplification along the Mackenzie valley and Arctic coastal plain and reduction by buffering in the interior Yukon and Alaskan mountains, a result of micro-environmental factors. Continued, careful monitoring of the climate is required and needs to be expanded in the National Parks in the mountains in order to provide data on the changes that may be taking place. Such measurements can provide a sound basis for interpreting ecological and other climate-related data. The existing climate models are not

  2. The Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC): Mission overview and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelhaf, Hermann; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Rapp, Markus; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Engel, Andreas; Bönisch, Harald

    2016-04-01

    The POLSTRACC mission aims at providing new scientific knowledge on the Arctic lowermost stratosphere and upper troposphere under the present load of halogens and state of climate variables. POLSTRACC employs the German High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft (HALO) and is the only HALO mission dedicated to study the UTLS at high latitudes several years after the last intensive Arctic campaigns. The scientific scope of POLSTRACC is broadened by its combination with the SALSA (Seasonality of Air mass transport and origin in the Lowermost Stratosphere using the HALO Aircraft) and GW-LCYCLE (Gravity Wave Life Cycle Experiment, a BMBF/ROMIC project) missions, which address complementary scientific goals sharing the same HALO payload. POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE offer the unique opportunity to study the bottom of the polar vortex and the high-latitude UTLS along with their impact on lower latitudes throughout an entire winter/spring cycle. The payload for the combined POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE campaigns comprises an innovative combination of remote sensing techniques providing 2- and 3-D distributions of temperature and a large number of substances, and precise in-situ instruments measuring T, O3, H2O, tracers of different lifetimes and chemically active species at the aircraft level with high time-resolution. Drop sondes will add information about temperature, humidity and wind in the atmosphere underneath the aircraft. The POLSTRACC consortium includes national (KIT, Forschungszentrum Jülich, DLR, Universities of Frankfurt, Heidelberg, Mainz and Wuppertal; PTB) and international partners (e.g. NASA). The field campaign is divided into three phases for addressing (i) the early polar vortex and its wide-scale vicinity in December 2015 (from Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany), (ii) the mid-winter vortex from January to March 2016 (from Kiruna, Sweden), and (iii) the late dissipating vortex and its wide-scale vicinity in March 2016 (from Kiruna and

  3. A review of the relevance of the 'CLOUD' results and other recent observations to the possible effect of cosmic rays on the terrestrial climate

    CERN Document Server

    Erlykin, Anatoly; Wolfendale, Arnold

    2013-01-01

    The problem of the contribution of cosmic rays to climate change is a continuing one and one of importance. In principle, at least, the recent results from the CLOUD project at CERN provide information about the role of ionizing particles in 'sensitizing' atmospheric aerosols which might, later, give rise to cloud droplets. Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there will be a small global cooling, not warming.

  4. Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.

  5. Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Peng

    Full Text Available Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet. The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.

  6. Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

    2014-12-01

    GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest

  7. Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Experimental Hygrothermal Performance: Cloquet Residential Research Facility Laboratory Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldberg, Louise F. [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Harmon, Anna C. [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Thermal and moisture problems in existing basements create a unique challenge because the exterior face of the wall is not easily or inexpensively accessible. This approach addresses thermal and moisture management from the interior face of the wall without disturbing the exterior soil and landscaping. the interior and exterior environments. This approach has the potential for improving durability, comfort, and indoor air quality. This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes. NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.

  8. Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2C global temperature rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Tin, T. [National Observatory of Athens, Athens (Greece); Bindi, M.; Moriondo, M. [Department of Agronomy and Land Management, Florence (Italy)

    2005-07-01

    The goal of the present study is to provide the first piece of the puzzle in understanding the impacts of a 2C global temperature rise on the Mediterranean region, using high temporal resolution climate model output that has been made newly available. The analysis has been based on the temperature, precipitation and wind daily outputs of the HadCM3 model using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The study is focussed on the thirty-year period (2031-2060) centred on the time that global temperature is expected to reach 2C above pre-industrial levels, as defined by an earlier companion study. Changes in both the mean (temperature, precipitation) and the extremes (heatwaves, drought) under the different scenarios were assessed. The impacts of these climatic changes on energy demand, forest fire, tourism and agriculture were subsequently investigated either using existing numerical models or an expertbased approach. Based on recent studies, the impacts on biodiversity, water resources and sea level rise in the region were also discussed.

  9. Climatic sensitivity of hydrology and carbon exchanges in boreal peatland ecosystems, with implications on sustainable management of reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea, L.) on cutaway peatlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong Jinnan

    2013-11-01

    and western areas of Finland. Peat extraction and RCG cultivation tends to limit the influence of WT on the root-zone moisture content in a peatland ecosystem, resulting in a high sensitivity of soil moisture content to the regularity of summer rainfall. However, the phenological cycle of RCG may represent an adaptive feature of photosynthesis to the stochasticity of summer precipitation. By the end of the 21st century, climate change will decrease the CO{sub 2} sequestration by 63%-87% in a cutaway RCG peatland during a main rotation period of 12 years. Nevertheless, the site could sustain a net CO{sub 2} sink, which is comparable to the pristine peatlands in the same region. (orig.)

  10. A new shallow underground gas-proportional counting lab--first results and Ar-37 sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalseth, C E; Day, A R; Fuller, E S; Hoppe, E W; Keillor, M E; Leferriere, B; Mace, E K; Merriman, J; Myers, A W; Overman, C T; Panisko, M E; Seifert, A; Warren, G A; Williams, R M

    2013-11-01

    A new ultra-low-background proportional counter was recently developed with an internal volume of 100 cm(3) and has been characterized at pressures from 1-10 atm with P-10 (90% Ar, 10% methane) gas. This design, along with a counting system providing event digitization and passive and active shielding, has been developed to complement a new shallow underground laboratory (30 m water-equivalent). Backgrounds and low-level reference materials have been measured, and system sensitivity for (37)Ar has been calculated.

  11. Reactive nitrogen in Mexico City and its relation to ozone-precursor sensitivity: results from photochemical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sillman

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available We use results of a 3-D photochemistry/transport model for ozone formation in Mexico City during events in 1997 to investigate ambient concentrations of reactive nitrogen in relation to ozone-precursor sensitivity. Previous results from other locations suggest that ratios such as O3/NOy and H2O2/HNO3 might provide measurement-based indicators for NOx-sensitive or VOC-sensitive conditions. Mexico City presents a different environment due to its high concentrations of VOC and high level of pollutants in general. The model predicts a correlation between PAN and O3 with relatively high PAN/O3 (0.07, which is still lower than measured values. The model PAN is comparable with results from a model for Paris but much higher than were found in Nashville in both models and measurements. The difference can be explained by the lower temperature in Mexico City relative to Nashville. Model HNO3 in Mexico City is unusually low for an urban area and PAN/HNO3 is very high, probably due to the high ratio of reactivity-weighted VOC to NOx. The model predicts that VOC-sensitive chemistry in Mexico is associated with high NOx, NOy and NOx/NOy and with low O3/NOy and H2O2/HNO3, suggesting that these indicators work well for Mexico City. The relation between ozone-precursor sensitivity and either O3/NOz or O3/HNO3 is more ambiguous. VOC-sensitive conditions are associated with higher O3/HNO3 than would be found in NOx-sensitive conditions, but model O3/HNO3 associated with both NOx-sensitive and VOC-sensitive chemistry is higher in Mexico than in other cities. The model predicts mixed sensitivity to NOx and VOC in Mexico City, with a

  12. Reactive nitrogen in Mexico City and its relation to ozone-precursor sensitivity: results from photochemical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sillman

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available We use results of a 3-D photochemistry/transport model for ozone formation in Mexico City during events in 1997 to investigate ambient concentrations of reactive nitrogen in relation to ozone-precursor sensitivity. Previous results from other locations suggest that ratios such as O3/NOy and H2O2/HNO3 might provide measurement-based indicators for NOx-sensitive or VOC-sensitive conditions. Mexico City presents a different environment due to its high concentrations of VOC and high level of pollutants in general. The model predicts a correlation between PAN and O3 with relatively high PAN/O3 (0.07, which is still lower than measured values. The model PAN is comparable with results from a model for Paris but much higher than were found in Nashville in both models and measurements. The difference is due in part to the lower temperature in Mexico City relative to Nashville. Model HNO3 in Mexico City is unusually low for an urban area and PAN/HNO3 is very high, probably due to the high ratio of reactivity-weighted VOC to NOx. The model predicts that VOC-sensitive chemistry in Mexico is associated with high NOx, NOy and NOx/NOy and with low O3/NOy and H2O2/HNO3, suggesting that these indicators work well for Mexico City. The relation between ozone-precursor sensitivity and either O3/NOz or O3/HNO3 is more ambiguous. VOC-sensitive conditions are associated with higher O3/HNO3 than would be found in NOx-sensitive conditions, but model O3/HNO3 associated with both NOx-sensitive and VOC-sensitive chemistry is higher in Mexico than in other cities. The model predicts a mixed pattern of ozone-precursor sensitivity in Mexico City, with

  13. Texas Field Experiment Results: Performance of the Weatherization Assistance Program in Hot-Climate, Low-Income Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCold, Lance Neil [ORNL; Goeltz, Rick [ORNL; Ternes, Mark P [ORNL; Berry, Linda G [ORNL

    2008-04-01

    A field test involving 35 houses was performed in Texas between 2000 and 2003 to study the response of low-income homes in hot climates to weatherization performed as part of the U.S Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program and to investigate certain methods to improve weatherization performance. The study found that improved Program designs and the use of advanced energy audits resulted in better weatherization measures being installed (use of blower doors to guide the infiltration work, more frequent installation of attic insulation, and installation of wall insulation) in the study homes, improved space-heating savings performance compared to the Program as implemented in the hot climates in 1989, and more comfortable indoor temperatures. Two key policy dilemmas for Texas and other hot-climate states were highlighted by the study; namely, how to balance expenditures between installing cost-effective weatherization measures and performing health, safety, and repair items, and that health, safety, and repair items can have an adverse impact on energy savings, which further complicates the weatherization decision process. Several occupant and equipment-related behaviors were observed in the field test homes that help explain why audits may over predict energy consumptions and savings and why air-conditioning electricity savings are difficult to measure. Based on this study, it is recommended that states in hot climates be encouraged to select from an expanded list of measures using advanced audits or other techniques, and further studies examining the benefits obtained from air conditioner measures should be performed. In addition, guidelines should be developed for the hot-climate states on how to (a) balance the objectives of saving energy, improving health and safety, and addressing repair issues, and (b) select repair items.

  14. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF THE INVESTMENT CLIMATE IN RUSSIA AS A RESULT OF MODERNIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN CIVIL CODE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Musin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article traces the history, and discusses some of the recent changes in the Russian Federation Civil Code, which result in a more favorable business climate inRussia. In particular, it discusses the development of changes related to the documentation of contracts, expansion in the durations and uses of powers of attorney, and the modernization of the statute of limitations period for bringing an action.">Russia >

  15. Concrete spalling sensitivity versus microstructure: Preliminary results on the effect of polypropylene fibers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rossino Chiara

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The phisyco-mechanical processes triggering concrete explosive spalling are related to the heat-induced micro- and meso-structural changes. To have new information on concrete properties at the microstructural level, as well as on how concrete spalling sensitivity is affected by polypropylene and steel fibers, and by aggregate type, ordinary and high-performance concretes are investigated in this research project, after being heated to different temperatures. The focus is on the relationship among porosity, vapor permeability, pore pressure and microcracking inside the cementitious matrix. Polypropylene fibers are shown to increase the total porosity, to favor microcracking and to reduce significantly pore pressure, to the advantage of concrete resistance to explosive spalling, whose risk is markedly reduced – or even zeroed.

  16. Instrumentation and First Results of the Reflected Solar Demonstration System for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCorkel, Joel; Thome, Kurtis; Hair, Jason; McAndrew, Brendan; Jennings, Don; Rabin, Douglas; Daw, Adrian; Lundsford, Allen

    2012-01-01

    The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission key goals include enabling observation of high accuracy long-term climate change trends, use of these observations to test and improve climate forecasts, and calibration of operational and research sensors. The spaceborne instrument suites include a reflected solar spectroradiometer, emitted infrared spectroradiometer, and radio occultation receivers. The requirement for the RS instrument is that derived reflectance must be traceable to Sl standards with an absolute uncertainty of instrument, and presents initial calibration and characterization methods and results. SOLARIS is an Offner spectrometer with two separate focal planes each with its own entrance aperture and grating covering spectral ranges of 320-640, 600-2300 nm over a full field-of-view of 10 degrees with 0.27 milliradian sampling. Results from laboratory measurements including use of integrating spheres, transfer radiometers and spectral standards combined with field-based solar and lunar acquisitions are presented. These results will be used to assess the accuracy and repeatability of the radiometric and spectral characteristics of SOLARIS, which will be presented against the sensor-level requirements addressed in the CLARREO RS instrument error budget.

  17. Evapotranspiration as a Regional Climate Priority: Results from a NASA/USDA Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawford, Richard; Kustas, Bill; Toll, David; Anderson, Martha; Doorn, Bradley; Allen, Richard; Engman, Ted; Morse, Tony

    2011-01-01

    On April 5 to 7, 2011, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) sponsored a Workshop on Evapotranspiration (ET) in Silver Spring Maryland. The workshop was a response to a recommendation in the 2009-2011 GEO (Group on Earth Observations) Work Plan that a workshop on ET should be held to discuss issues related to ET products and services and the potential for incorporating ET activities into the 2012-2015 GEO Work Plan. The workshop had a regional emphasis, although there were several excellent international and global presentations including one on the GEWEX LANDFLUX project. The different scales of these activities suggests that a framework is needed that can accommodate both regional and global ET activities. Despite limitations with the workshop's scheduling, it attracted 76 experts who contributed informative presentations and insightful discussions. The goals of the workshop involved the exchange of information and ideas and the development of plans for providing more visibility for ET issues. Specific objectives included 1) defining the needs and requirements for evapotranspiration data in weather and climate studies, in natural and agro-ecoystem monitoring, and in water resource management; 2) reviewing the methods used to measure and model evapotranspiration; 3) assessing surface and satellite observation systems required to support ET measurement, modeling and evaluation; 4) assessing the feasibility of developing a proposal for a task on evapotranspiration for the 2012-2015 GEO Work Plan, and 5) exploring the level of support and consensus for developing a strategy for establishing evapotranspiration as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) within the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) framework The workshop featured a combination of oral presentations and breakout group sessions focused on the above objectives. There were also poster presentations

  18. The Sensitivity of Characteristics of Large Scale Baroclinic Unstable Waves in Southern Hemisphere to the Underlying Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Soldatenko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of the main characteristics of baroclinically unstable waves with respect to fundamental parameters of the atmosphere (the static stability parameter σ0 and vertical shear of a zonal wind Λ is theoretically explored. Two types of waves are considered: synoptic scale waves and planetary scale (ultralong waves based on an Eady-type model and model with vertically averaged primitive equations. Sensitivity functions are obtained that estimate the impact of variations in σ0 and Λ on the growth rate and other characteristics of unstable waves and demonstrate that waves belonging to the short-wave part of the spectrum of unstable waves are more sensitive to changes in the static stability parameter than waves belonging to the long-wave part of the spectrum. The obtained theoretical results show that the increase of the static stability and decrease of the meridional temperature gradient in midlatitude baroclinic zones in some areas of the southern hemisphere lead to a slowing of the growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves and an increasing wavelength of baroclinic unstable wave maximum growth rate, that is, a spectrum shift of unstable waves towards longer wavelengths. These might affect the favorable conditions for the development of baroclinic instability and, therefore, the intensity of cyclone generation activity.

  19. Impacts of climate change on Middle Eastern societies over the last 2700 years: new results from the Gejkar speleothem, Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Bosomworth, Matt; Cheng, Hai; Sadekov, Aleksey; Matthews, Roger; Matthews, Wendy; Black, Stuart; Edwards, Lawrence

    2016-04-01

    Climatic and environmental changes are often cited as a major factor for past social, economic, and political changes. This is especially relevant in the semi-arid to arid Middle East, where, however, only few precisely dated, high-resolution climate records are available. Here we present new results from an up to annually resolved stalagmite from Gejkar Cave in the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq region. Based on Uranium-series dating and annual layer counts, the record dates back ~2700 years, and its annual layer thickness and carbon and oxygen isotope profile appear indicative of precipitation and effective moisture. We also assess if observed decadal to multi-decadal shifts in precipitation are synchronous with socio-economic changes as observed in the archaeological and historical record in the wider Middle East over the last 2000 years, such as the largely prosperous Roman and Byzantine periods, the Seljuq invasion, and the decline of the Ottoman Empire.

  20. Building America Residential System Research Results: Achieving 30% Whole House Energy Savings Level in Marine Climates; January 2006 - December 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Building America Industrialized Housing Partnership (BAIHP); Building Industry Research Alliance (BIRA); Building Science Consortium (BSC); Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB); Davis Energy Group (DEG); IBACOS; National Association of Home Builders Research Center (NAHBRC); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

    2006-12-01

    The Building America program conducts the system research required to reduce risks associated with the design and construction of homes that use an average of 30% to 90% less total energy for all residential energy uses than the Building America Research Benchmark, including research on homes that will use zero net energy on annual basis. To measure the program's progress, annual research milestones have been established for five major climate regions in the United States. The system research activities required to reach each milestone take from 3 to 5 years to complete and include research in individual test houses, studies in pre-production prototypes, and research studies with lead builders that provide early examples that the specified energy savings level can be successfully achieved on a production basis. This report summarizes research results for the 30% energy savings level and demonstrates that lead builders can successfully provide 30% homes in the Marine Climate Region on a cost neutral basis.

  1. Sensitivity of water balance and water use efficiency to climate and crop type at an agricultural site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brümmer, C.; Kutsch, W. L.

    2012-04-01

    The effects of climatic factors and crop type on evapotranspiration (E) and water use efficiency (WUE) were analyzed using tower-based eddy-covariance data for an agricultural site in Thuringia, Germany. During ten years of observation, winter wheat (five times) and winter barley (once) were alternately planted with potato (twice), rapeseed (once) and sugar beet (once). The seasonal pattern of E was closely linked to growing-season length and rainfall distribution. Although annual precipitation (P) was highly variable (380-700 mm), minimum annual E was not less than 250 mm and was limited to 380 mm. However, a positive correlation between annual P and annual E with E plateauing at high P as was usually found at forest, grassland and peatland sites could not be observed. Winter wheat tended to limit annual E and was found to be relatively insensitive with changing annual P and solar irradiance. A hysteretic relationship between monthly mean values of E and net radiation (Rn) indicated that E lagged behind the typical seasonal progression of Rn. Annual means of daytime dry-foliage Priestley-Taylor α much less than the theoretical maximum of 1.26 for extensive well-watered vegetation showed that E on an annual basis was either water limited and/or stomatal control of transpiration must have been prevalent. In all years, a strong linear correlation between monthly mean values of gross primary production and E resulted in WUE being relatively constant between 2.5 and 3.5 g C kg-1 H2O. Our study shows that crop selection has a major impact on the water balance of an agricultural site with the influence of climatic factors being significantly different than usually found for natural ecosystems.

  2. Mainstreaming climate adaptation into urban planning: overcoming barriers, seizing opportunities and evaluating the results in two Dutch case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uittenbroek, C.J.; Janssen-Jansen, L.B.; Runhaar, H.A.C.

    2012-01-01

    With cities facing climate change, climate adaptation is necessary to reduce risks such as heat stress and flooding and maintain the goals of sustainable urban development. In climate change literature, the focus has been on developing a new dedicated policy domain for climate adaptation. Yet, empir

  3. How to ensure that the results of climate risk analysis make a difference? - Experience from applied research addressing the challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Zebisch, Marc; Becker, Daniel; Pedoth, Lydia; Renner, Kathrin; Kienberger, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Changing climate conditions may have beneficial or adverse effects on the social-ecological systems we are living in. In any case, the possible effects result from complex and interlinked physical and social processes embedded in these systems. Traditional research addresses these bio-physical and societal issues in a separate way. Therefore, in general, studies on risks related to climate change are still mono-disciplinary in nature with an increasing amount of work following a multi-disciplinary approach. The quality and usefulness of the results of such research for policy or decision making in practice may further be limited by study designs that do not acknowledge appropriately the significance of integrating or at least mixing qualitative and quantitative information and knowledge. Finally,