WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate policy models

  1. Time to refine key climate policy models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Alexander R.

    2018-05-01

    Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

  2. Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

    2010-12-01

    The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

  3. Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin; Shittu, Ekundayo

    2008-01-01

    Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy. (author)

  4. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  5. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  6. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  7. Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.

    2003-01-01

    Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

  8. Climate policy: Bucket or drainer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomou, Vlasis; Patel, Martin; Worrell, Ernst

    2006-01-01

    Worldwide, industry is responsible for about 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it an important target for climate policy. Energy-intensive industries may be particularly vulnerable to higher energy costs caused by climate policy. If companies cannot offset rising energy costs and would face increased competition from countries without climate policy, they may decide to relocate their industrial production to the countries without climate policy. The resulting net effect of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries is typically referred to as 'carbon leakage'. Carbon leakage may lead to higher global GHG emissions due to the use of less advanced technology in less developed countries. Based on a literature review of climate policy, earlier environmental policy and analyses of historical trends, this paper assesses the carbon leakage effects of climate policy for energy-intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased global production share of Non-Annex 1 countries. However, from empirical analyses we conclude that the trend is primarily driven by regional demand growth. In contrast, climate policy models show a strong carbon leakage. Even though future climate policy may have a more profound impact than environmental policies in the past, the modelling results are doubtful. Leakage generally seems to be overestimated in current models, especially as potential positive spillovers are often not included in the models. The ambiguity of the empirical analyses and the modelling results warrants further research in the importance of production factors for relocation

  9. Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

    2005-01-01

    Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

  10. A top-down bottom-up modeling approach to climate change policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuladhar, Sugandha D.; Yuan, Mei; Bernstein, Paul; Montgomery, W. David; Smith, Anne

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes macroeconomic impacts of U.S. climate change policies for three different emissions pathways using a top-down bottom-up integrated model. The integrated model couples a technology-rich, bottom-up model of the U.S. electricity sector with a fully dynamic, forward-looking general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. Our model provides a unique and consistent modeling framework for climate change analysis. Because of the model's detail and flexibility, we use it to examine additional scenarios to analyze many of the major uncertainties surrounding the implementation and impact of climate change policies - the role of command-and-control measures, loss in flexibility mechanisms such as banking, limits on low-emitting technology, and availability of offsets. The results consistently demonstrate that those policies that combine market-oriented abatement incentives with full flexibility are the most cost-effective. (author)

  11. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Similarly, planners and policymakers face barriers in applying and using climate ... Advancing the application of climate and hydrological information and its ... Call for new OWSD Fellowships for Early Career Women Scientists now open.

  12. To support growth, to limit emissions: is China a model in terms of climate policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voita, Thibault

    2012-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to discuss how China has been able to adapt its economic policy to the challenges of climate change without forgetting its final objective of economic growth for the country. The author first describes some characteristics of the Chinese decision political system in the field of industrial and energy policy towards a low carbon economy: articulation between central power and local authorities, and complexity of decision processes at the central level. The author then shows how this system has changed to integrate policies of struggle against climate change, used them as an opportunity towards a low carbon economy, and put them at the service of the national industrial policy. Then, based on several case studies of actual projects (electric vehicles, gas liquefaction, local energy policies), the author proposes an assessment of the system efficiency, and tries to see whether one can talk of a Chinese political model regarding the policy of struggle against climate change. He notably discusses the efficiency of these policies in terms of relationship between industrial independence and climate policy

  13. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crassous, R.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks

  14. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Modelling future scenarios for better planning To create effective strategies, ... change adaptation situations in sectors spanning from agriculture to urban planning. ... En partenariat avec l'Organization for Women in Science for the Developing ...

  15. Climate and economy. Climate Policy Dossier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, A.M.; Koutstaal, P.R.; De Groot, H.L.F.; Tang, P.J.G.

    2001-01-01

    In this introductory article an overview is given of what can be expected in this dossier on climate policy in the Netherlands, focusing on the economic analysis of climate policy and climatic change. Attention will be paid to flexible mechanisms to reduce the costs of such policy and visions of interested parties. 1 ref

  16. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  17. Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose

    2015-03-01

    Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

  18. Learning by Doing vs Learning by Researching in a Model of Climate Change Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castelnuovo, E.; Galeotti, M.; Vergalli, S.; Gambarelli, G.

    2004-01-01

    Many predictions and conclusions in the climate change literature have been made and drawn on the basis of theoretical analyses and quantitative models that assume exogenous technological change. One is naturally led to wonder whether those conclusions and policy prescriptions hold in the more realistic case of endogenously evolving technologies. In previous work we took a popular integrated assessment model and modified it so as to allow for an explicit role of the stock of knowledge which accumulates through R and D investment. In our formulation knowledge affects both the output production technology and the emission-output ratio. In this paper we make further progress in our efforts aimed to model the process of technological change. In keeping with recent theories of endogenous growth, we specify two ways in which knowledge accumulates: via a deliberate, optimally selected R and D decision or via experience, giving rise to Learning by Doing. As an illustration, we simulate the model under the two versions of endogenous technical change and look at the dynamics of a selected number of relevant variables, including growth rates of GDP and physical capital, as well as total emissions and rate of domestic abatement. Keywords: Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

  19. Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haurie, A.; Tavoni, M.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

    2011-01-01

    This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

  20. Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haurie, A. [ORDECSYS, Geneva (Switzerland); Tavoni, M. [Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Policy Studies Department, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-07-15

    This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

  1. Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Toman, Michael; Shogren, Jason

    2000-01-01

    Having risen from relative obscurity as few as ten years ago, climate change now looms large among environmental policy issues. Its scope is global; the potential environmental and economic impacts are ubiquitous; the potential restrictions on human choices touch the most basic goals of people in all nations; and the sheer scope of the potential response—a significant shift away from using fossil fuels as the primary energy source in the modern economy—is daunting. In this paper, we explore t...

  2. Modelling issues on climate change policies. A discussion of the GTAP-E model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kremers, H.; Nijkamp, P.; Wang, Shunli

    2000-01-01

    Ater the Kyoto agreements the need has arisen to trace the implications of various international environmental strategies. In this paper, we discuss relevant modelling issues of incorporating important environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version, the GTAP-E (Global Trade Analysis Project - Energy) by addressing the question how to include the widely discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanisms. The paper will be concluded with some policy issues. 10 refs

  3. Modelling issues on climate change policies. A discussion of the GTAP-E model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremers, H.; Nijkamp, P.; Wang, Shunli [Department of Spatial Economics, Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2000-11-01

    Ater the Kyoto agreements the need has arisen to trace the implications of various international environmental strategies. In this paper, we discuss relevant modelling issues of incorporating important environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version, the GTAP-E (Global Trade Analysis Project - Energy) by addressing the question how to include the widely discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanisms. The paper will be concluded with some policy issues. 10 refs.

  4. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-11-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  5. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  6. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  7. Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian Sue Wing

    2006-04-18

    The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal

  8. Climate policy after Kyoto

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerholm, T.R.

    2002-01-01

    The Kyoto Convention recommends reductions in emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases, to mitigate the rate of climate change. Lively debate has taken place in many countries, not least over the political and economic implications. The basis for the Kyoto discussions was a set of studies commissioned, compiled and published by the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). At first glance this scientific foundation plainly shows that significant climate change will occur unless emissions of greenhouse gases are sharply curtailed. On closer examination, the scientific evidence provided in the IPCC material is far from clear. Reputable scientists have expressed critical views about the interpretation of the scientific results and, even more, of the way the material is being used for policy purposes. The main purpose of this book is to voice this critique. To give the reader some context, a central section from the IPCC's basic document is presented first. There follow nine papers, by prominent natural and social scientists, in which the reasons for their sceptical attitudes are developed. A final paper by Professor Bert Bolin, chairman of the IPCC during the time when most of the material was produced, provides a response and commentary to the critique. The aim of the editor and authors, in presenting the material in this way, rather than as a polemical tract, is to leave open to the reader the question: Is global warming a consequence of man's activities, or are there other reasons; if so, is adopting policies with significant economic consequences, a reasonable response? (Author)

  9. Combining climate and energy policies: synergies or antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecuyer, Oskar; Bibas, Ruben

    2012-01-01

    In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. (authors)

  10. An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, W. M.

    2010-12-01

    The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one

  11. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  12. Climate policy and ancillary benefits. A survey and integration into the modelling of international negotiations on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pittel, Karen; Ruebbelke, Dirk T.G.

    2008-01-01

    Currently informal and formal international negotiations on climate change take place in an intensive way since the Kyoto Protocol expires already in 2012. A post-Kyoto regulation to combat global warming is not yet stipulated. Due to rapidly increasing greenhouse-gas emission levels, industrialized countries urge major polluters from the developing world like China and India to participate in a future agreement. Whether these developing countries will do so, depends on the prevailing incentives to participate in international climate protection efforts. This paper identifies ancillary benefits of climate policy to provide important incentives to attend a new international protocol and to positively affect the likelihood of accomplishing a post-Kyoto agreement which includes commitments of developing countries. (author)

  13. U.S. climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreau, Blandine

    2011-11-01

    is also resolutely opposed to any commitment to a new agreement on the model of the Kyoto Protocol. In the end, only the development of the regulation implemented by the EPA and the pressure of American public opinion could lead to back, ultimately action against climate change at the top of the political agenda. Contents: - The dashed hopes of parliamentary bills; - A climate policy that advances masked?; - Beyond Durban: How to revive a credible climate strategy?

  14. Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delina, Laurence L.; Diesendorf, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes. - Highlights: • The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of using wartime experience as a model for rapid climate mitigation. • Wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour. • Wartime experience also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes

  15. Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa Pinto, L.M.; Harrison, G.W. [Universidade do Minho, Braga (Portugal). Nucleo de Investigacao em Microeconomia Aplicada, Departmento de Economia

    2000-07-01

    Negotiations in the real world have many features that tend to be ignored in policy modelling. They are often multilateral, involving many negotiating parties with preferences over outcomes that can differ substantially. They are also often multi-dimensional, in the sense that several policies are negotiated over simultaneously. Trade negotiations are a prime example, as are negotiations over environmental policies to abate CO{sub 2}. The authors demonstrate how one can formally model this type of negotiation process. They use a policy-oriented computable general equilibrium model to generate preference functions which are then used in a formal multilateral bargaining game. The case study is on climate change policy, but the main contribution is to demonstrate how one can integrate formal economic models of the impacts of policies with formal bargaining models of the negotiations over those policies. 8 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  16. Climate policies under wealth inequality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M; Levin, Simon A

    2014-02-11

    Taming the planet's climate requires cooperation. Previous failures to reach consensus in climate summits have been attributed, among other factors, to conflicting policies between rich and poor countries, which disagree on the implementation of mitigation measures. Here we implement wealth inequality in a threshold public goods dilemma of cooperation in which players also face the risk of potential future losses. We consider a population exhibiting an asymmetric distribution of rich and poor players that reflects the present-day status of nations and study the behavioral interplay between rich and poor in time, regarding their willingness to cooperate. Individuals are also allowed to exhibit a variable degree of homophily, which acts to limit those that constitute one's sphere of influence. Under the premises of our model, and in the absence of homophily, comparison between scenarios with wealth inequality and without wealth inequality shows that the former leads to more global cooperation than the latter. Furthermore, we find that the rich generally contribute more than the poor and will often compensate for the lower contribution of the latter. Contributions from the poor, which are crucial to overcome the climate change dilemma, are shown to be very sensitive to homophily, which, if prevalent, can lead to a collapse of their overall contribution. In such cases, however, we also find that obstinate cooperative behavior by a few poor may largely compensate for homophilic behavior.

  17. Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.

  18. Changing climate-protection policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodtli, M.

    2000-01-01

    This article presents an interview with Baldur Eliasson, a Swiss member of the International Energy Agency's committee on greenhouse gas reduction. Swiss involvement in the programme is discussed and the main areas of attention are described. Scientific and political factors involved in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are discussed and various economic models for the implementation of measures examined. In particular, the co-operation between industry and politics that is necessary to achieve the goals set by the Kyoto protocol on climate change are discussed and participative development projects in China are described. The application of CO 2 -pricing and further economical steering instruments is examined and the influence of public opinion on policy is looked at

  19. Investment under Uncertain Climate Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barradale, Merrill Jones

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under uncertain climate policy). In modeling power plant investment decisions, most existing literature uses the expected carbon price (e.g., the price...... actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005–2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal-fired power plant development in the U.S. The data for this case study comes from an extensive online survey of 700 U.S. energy...... design better incentives for investing in low-carbon technologies...

  20. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  1. Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2004-05-01

    After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO 2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

  2. Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-08-07

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

  3. New arrangements in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arts, B.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Climate policy, its content and the way it is being organised, is changing, both nationally and internationally. The Kyoto Protocol and its effects form an important catalyst for this process. The focus in climate discourse is increasingly on 'differentiation' and 'flexibilisation', while the role of the industrial sectors involved has changed since 1997, among other things expressed in the increasing influence exerted by the business community and the declining power of the environmental movement. There is a transition underway, from pluralist to private policy arrangements

  4. Oil Trade and Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Malik Curuk; Suphi Sen

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that a depletable resource owner might optimally increase near-term supply in response to environmental policies promoting the development of alternative resources, which might render climate policy ineffective or even counterproductive. This paper empirically confirms this prediction using data on crude oil exports from OPEC to OECD countries between 2001-2010 in a gravity framework. It documents that oil exporters decrease prices and increase quantity of oil exports in re...

  5. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  6. Build a Catastrophe: Using Digital World and Policy Models to Engage Political Science Students with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horodyskyj, L.; Lennon, T.; Mead, C.; Anbar, A. D.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is a problem that involves science, economics, and politics. Particularly in the United States, political resistance to addressing climate change has been exacerbated by a concerted misinformation campaign against the basic science, a negative response to how the proposed solutions to climate change intersect with values. Scientists often propose more climate science education as a solution to the problem, but preliminary studies indicate that more science education does not necessarily reduce polarization on the topic (Kahan et al. 2012). Is there a way that we can better engage non-science students in topics related to climate change that improve their comprehension of the problem and its implications, overcoming polarization? In an existing political science course, "Do You Want to Build a Nation?", we are testing a new digital world-building model based on resource development and consequent environmental and societal impacts. Students spend half the class building their nations based on their assigned ideology (i.e., socialist, absolute monarchy, libertarian) and the second half of the class negotiating with other nations to resolve global issues while remaining true to their ideologies. The course instructor, co-author Lennon, and ASU's Center for Education Through eXploration have collaborated to design a digital world model based on resources linked to an adaptive decision-making environment that translates student policies into modifications to the digital world. The model tracks students' exploration and justification of their nation's policy choices. In the Fall 2017 offering of the course, we will investigate how this digital world model and scenarios built around it affect student learning outcomes. Specifically, we anticipate improved understanding of the policy trade-offs related to energy development, better understanding of the ways that different ideologies approach solutions to climate change, and that both will result in more

  7. Technology and international climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-01-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  8. Technology and international climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-05-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  9. Local government and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, H.; Menkveld, M.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Local government in the Netherlands could play a greater role than they currently do in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the country. This fact formed the motivation for initiating the research project on Local Government and Climate Policy. Many local climate options are known in theory. Options for reduction that lie within the sphere of influence of Dutch local government are, for example, sustainable building or encouraging the utilisation of sustainable energy. But actual practice turns out to be rather refractory. If such options are to be implemented, then one has to overcome institutional barriers, such as the co-operation between different departments in the same local authority. The objective of this research is to improve the contribution that local government makes to climate policy

  10. Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

    2010-12-01

    Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

  11. Efficient and Equitable Climate Change Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Socrates Kypreos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This report describes the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO, which is a Ramsey-type macroeconomic growth model linked with a technology-rich engineering model of the energy-system and with a stylized sub-model of climate change. TIAM-MACRO contributes to coherent and consistent policy analyses at both the world and regional level and correlates demand for energy services to macro-economic developments across regions and time until the end of the 21st century. With the help of this model, two contrasting scenarios are defined related to the reference development (BASE case and the 2 °C (2DS case that follow long-term policies on climatic change mitigation in the spirit of the Paris agreement. Finally, we define ex-post market and non-market damages together with the damages related to Local Atmospheric Pollutants (LAP. The stringency of the 2DS case requires the complete restructuring of the energy and transport systems to be relying on carbon-free technologies and fuels together with technologies of negative emissions, at high costs. The study concludes that carbon policies not only consist of an insurance against the risk of climate change but also improve the ambient air quality, as they have secondary benefits that compensate for part of the cost of carbon control. However, the stringency of the 2DS case is so demanding that the cost of climate policies is above benefits.

  12. Hybrid modeling to support energy-climate policy: Effects of feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proença, Sara; St Aubyn, Miguel

    2013-01-01

    Feed-in tariffs have been the main policy instrument applied in Portugal for the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources under the EU Directives on energy and climate regulation. In this paper, we provide an empirical impact assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. Impact assessment of policy instruments plays a crucial role on decision-making process. For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium modeling approach, which represents a reliable tool to analyze the complex interactions between economic, energy, and environmental issues related to energy policies. Numerical simulations confirm the empirical evidence that the FITs policy implemented by Portugal was both an effective and a cost-efficient way to increase the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and thus to achieve the national RES-E target of 45% in 2010. Results show relatively modest macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of renewable energy source results in significant carbon emissions reductions. - Highlights: ► We provide an impact assessment of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. ► For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium model. ► Portugal's FITs policy proved to be a cost-efficient way to increase generation of renewable electricity. ► Results show relatively modest macroeconomic effects indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. ► The deployment of renewable energy sources results in significant carbon emission reductions

  13. Bridging Research and Policy in Energy Transition. Contributing to shape energy and climate policies through economic modelling and analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

    2015-11-01

    The growth model of the 20. century relied heavily on the exploitation of fossil energy and natural resources extracted at low cost. Yet, the depletion of these resources, the upward trend of their prices over the long term and the consequences of their use for the environment and climate are now challenging the sustainability of this model. The notion of energy transition is directed at rethinking the use of energy resources and natural capital to reach an economic growth that mitigates negative environmental effects, without sacrificing the well-being of populations. Turning this idea into action is a challenging task. AFD has designed and funded research and technical cooperation projects in order to inform decisions on the short-term cost and long-term impact of measures designed to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy regimes. Using tools for empirical economic analysis (particularly 'economy-energy' models), these projects have been carried out in several intervention settings, including South Africa, China and Mexico, which are discussed in this paper

  14. Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the

  15. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  16. Economics, ethics and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1993-01-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (118 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.)

  17. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  18. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  19. Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Richard S.J. Tol

    2012-01-01

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...

  20. Report on modelling the macroeconomic competitiveness impacts of EU climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This report details the results of a study carried out by Oxford Economics on the macroeconomic impacts of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on competitiveness in different sectors and different Member States. An economic model was used to assess the impacts of carbon pricing, building on previous work that looked at the effects on the UK economy. The model was used to estimate the impact on competitiveness and output associated with various carbon prices and assumptions for the proposed third EU ETS trading period (2013-2023) by sector for all countries. The model covered 30 sectors for each of the 27 EU Member states plus the USA, Japan and China. The report describes the EU model methodology (direct cost effects, second-round cost effects, cost effects without substitution, cost effects after substitution, pass through to prices, and output effects) and the key results in terms of: impacts of carbon-reduction policies unilateral EU action, sectoral impacts, electricity generation sector only; the non-power sector in the ETS; global action; developed world action; and a summary across all scenarios. The three annexes set out the UK Energy Industry Model (UKEIM), model equations for the EU-wide model and modelling assumptions for electricity generation

  1. Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2017-11-01

    Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

  2. International climate policy and trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuik, O.

    2000-01-01

    If a country takes steps to counter the greenhouse effect, it could influence the country's foreign trade. If a large group of countries consider such measures, e.g. the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol, that could possibly have major consequences for global trading patterns. How will the measures work out for countries, industries, and climate policy itself? Can countries mitigate any negative consequences for their trade balance? The results of a study to answer those questions are discussed

  3. Java Climate Model: a tool for interaction between science, policy and citizens, to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, B.

    2003-04-01

    To reach an effective global agreement to help avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system" (UNFCCC article 2) we must balance many complex interacting issues, and also inspire the active engagement of citizens around the world. So we have to transfer understanding back from computers and experts, into the ultimate "integrated assessment model" which remains the global network of human heads. The Java Climate Model (JCM) tries to help provide a quantitative framework for this global dialogue, by enabling anybody to explore many mitigation policy options and scientific uncertainties simply by adjusting parameter controls with a mouse in a web browser. The instant response on linked plots helps to demonstrate cause and effect, and the sensitivity to various assumptions, risk and value judgements. JCM implements the same simple models and formulae as used by IPCC for the TAR projections, in efficient modular structure, including carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry, radiative forcing, changes in temperature and sealevel, including some feedbacks. As well as explore the SRES scenarios, the user can create a wide variety of inverse scenarios for stabilising CO2, forcing, or temperature. People ask how local emissions which they can control, may influence the vast global natural and human systems, and change local climate impacts which affect them directly. JCM includes regional emissions and socioeconomic data, and scaled climate impact maps. However to complete this loop in a fast interactive model is a challenge! For transparency and accessibility, pop-up information is provided in ten languages, and documentation ranges from key cross-cutting questions, to them details of the model formulae, including all source code.

  4. Climate change and adaptation policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Jamie [Policy Research Initiative, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Lavender, B. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Smit, B. [Guelph Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Burton, I.

    2001-12-31

    In this document the authors indicate that some level of adaptation will be required as climate change affects our lives. They narrowed their examination to three sectors of Canadian society: human health, agriculture, and northern communities and infrastructure. Within each sector they discussed the policy research needs and the adaptation problems to be expected. Uncertainties remain concerning the magnitude of climate change, its timing and consequences, and further research is required to reduce the uncertainties. Canada presents certain vulnerabilities, and to enhance and improve the resilience of the population toward climate change, some adaptation measures must be put in place to reduce the vulnerabilities. Confidence will come as a by-product of the leadership required to bring about the required adaptation measures, and cooperation is a must between all levels of government, the private sector and society to reach agreement.

  5. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  6. Robustness and Uncertainty: Applications for Policy in Climate and Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, A. L., III

    2015-12-01

    Policymakers must often decide how to proceed when presented with conflicting simulation data from hydrological, climatological, and geological models. While laboratory sciences often appeal to the reproducibility of results to argue for the validity of their conclusions, simulations cannot use this strategy for a number of pragmatic and methodological reasons. However, robustness of predictions and causal structures can serve the same function for simulations as reproducibility does for laboratory experiments and field observations in either adjudicating between conflicting results or showing that there is insufficient justification to externally validate the results. Additionally, an interpretation of the argument from robustness is presented that involves appealing to the convergence of many well-built and diverse models rather than the more common version which involves appealing to the probability that one of a set of models is likely to be true. This interpretation strengthens the case for taking robustness as an additional requirement for the validation of simulation results and ultimately supports the idea that computer simulations can provide information about the world that is just as trustworthy as data from more traditional laboratory studies and field observations. Understanding the importance of robust results for the validation of simulation data is especially important for policymakers making decisions on the basis of potentially conflicting models. Applications will span climate, hydrological, and hydroclimatological models.

  7. Climate 2012 - Status and perspectives for Danish climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-03-01

    Through 'Climate 2012'. The Danish government wishes to give a total survey of the Danish climate policy. The intention with 'Climate 2012' is to lead to the Danish Parliament's ratification of the Kyoto-protocol. 'Climate 2012' is the result of a renewed analysis and updating of the Danish policy pursued till now relating to the emission of greenhouse gasses, so that this policy now more precisely includes all elements contained in the Kyoto-protocol. The climate strategy is also the basis for the coming years' national work within the climate area, through implementing a range of analyses and surveys review a range of aspects the climate area, of relevance to the Danish climate policy in the short and long term. Finally the climate strategy is the basis for an evaluation of the demand for establishing a strengthened Danish network within the climate area. (EHS)

  8. Preferences for distributional impacts of climate policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Lea Skræp; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of people living in the future in three geographical regions. The experiment is implemented on a representative sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model...... expresses some form of distributional preferences, but shows positive preferences for costs, suggesting that responses could be influenced by strategic behaviour and over-signalling of commitment. Our results provide support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate...

  9. The global climate Policy Evaluation Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohan, D.; Stafford, R.K.; Scheraga, J.D.; Herrod, S.

    1994-01-01

    The Policy Evaluation Framework (PEF) is a decision analysis tool that enables decision makers to continuously formulate policies that take into account the existing uncertainties, and to refine policies as new scientific information is developed. PEF integrates deterministic parametric models of physical, biological, and economic systems with a flexible decision tree system. The deterministic models represent greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric accumulation of these gases, global and regional climate changes, ecosystem impacts, economic impacts, and mitigation and adaptation options, The decision tree system captures the key scientific and economic uncertainties, and reflects the wide range of possible outcomes of alternative policy actions. The framework contains considerable flexibility to allow a wide range of scientific and economic assumptions or scenarios to be represented and explored. A key feature of PEF is its capability to address both mitigation policies and investments in anticipatory adaptation to protect ecological and economic systems, as well as interactions among such options. PEF's time structure allows issues related to the timing and flexibility of alternatives to be evaluated, while the decision tree structure facilitates examining questions involving the value of information, contingent actions, and probabilistic representations. This paper is intended to introduce PEF to the global climate policy community. The paper provides an overview of the structure, modules, and capabilities of PEF, and discusses selected results from an initial set of illustrative applications

  10. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies; Modeliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang: application aux politiques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crassous, R

    2008-11-15

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks.

  11. Boomerang effect of climate policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Researchers at the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) project that fossil fuel prices will rise only gradually in the next century. They also expect the gas price mainly to follow the oil price. A stringent global climate policy will do very little to change that. The analysis shows that fossil fuel prices during the next century will depend mainly on the cost of extracting the various conventional and non conventional oil reserves in the world, and by the strategies of OPEC and their allies

  12. Carbon Leakage Revisited : Unilateral Climate Policy with Directed Technical Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Di Maria, C.; van der Werf, E.H.

    2005-01-01

    The increase in carbondioxide emissions by some countries in reaction to an emission reduction by countries with climate policy (carbon leakage) is seen as a serious threat to unilateral climate policy.Using a two-country model where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions,

  13. Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2009-01-01

    This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

  14. The Transformation of Climate Models to Earth System Models and their Role in Policy Development and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, W. M.

    2012-12-01

    We have seen over the last few decades continued improvement in climate models such that they are becoming Earth system models (ESMs). Usually climate models use specified concentrations of greenhouse gases whereas ESMs allow carbon, water, biochemical and other cycles to be fully interactive between various model components. Typically ESMs have atmospheric, ocean, land/vegetation, sea ice, urbanization components and some are starting to include glacier change which can directly affect sea level change. Steve Schneider, for whom this lecture is named after, strongly encouraged the development of such models and he went further to strongly suggest that these tools be developed beyond just the climate science questions. The modeling community needs to be interacting with the social, behavioral, and economic science communities. This would allow for realistic humankind interactions with the Earth system. In 2012, the federal government with advice from the National Academies developed a new strategic plan for the U. S. Global Change Research Program entitled The National Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021. This new plan has added the social, behavioral, and economic sciences to the mix of research expertise. It should be pointed out that the Global Change Research Act of 1990 passed by Congress specified strategic goals: advance science, inform decisions, conduct assessments, and communicate and educate. In order to carry out these goals an implementation plan is being put together by the 13 federal agencies and departments. Throughout Steve's professional life, he knew that to make global change understood required this broad community of sciences to work together to answer the questions that the public and policymakers had about environmental change. This talk will not only be about the historical developments in the field but also about the future research challenges. As part of the talk I will show several unpublished video segments of Steve explaining what

  15. International climate policy : consequences for shipping

    OpenAIRE

    Mæstad, Ottar; Evensen, Annika Jaersen; Mathiesen, Lars; Olsen, Kristian

    2000-01-01

    This report summarises the main results from the project Norwegian and international climate policy consequences for shipping. The aim of the project has been to shed light on how climate policies might affect shipping, both from the cost side and from the demand side. The project has been divided into three sub-projects, investigating the consequences of climate policies for 1. Optimal shipping operations and management 2. The competitiveness of shipping relative to land transport 3. The tra...

  16. Unemployment effects of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babiker, Mustafa H.; Eckaus, Richard S.

    2007-01-01

    This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions. The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, in particular, the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover, only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters, the model shows that, with the labor market imperfections, if there were no offsetting policies, the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However, if there were two policies, instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy, as well as the emissions restrictions, the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated

  17. Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This report explores the effects of the EU emissions trading scheme on the aluminium sector (i.e. competitiveness loss and carbon leakage). With its very high electricity intensity, primary aluminium stands out in the heavy industry picture: a sector whose emissions are not capped in the present EU ETS, European aluminium smelters still stand to lose profit margins and, possibly, market shares, as electricity prices increase following CO2 caps on generators' emissions - the famous pass-through of CO2 prices into electricity prices. The analysis includes a method of quantification of this issue, based on two indicators: profit margins and trade flows. As the EU is at the forefront of such policy, the paper provides policy messages to all countries on how trade exposed energy-intensive industries can be 'moved' by carbon constraint. This also is a contentious topic in Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, where ambitious climate policies -- including cap-and-trade systems -- are currently debated.

  18. Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul G.

    2014-04-01

    Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

  19. Human capital, innovation, and climate policy: An integrated assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study the climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital incre...

  20. A Comparison of Computable General Equilibrium Models for Analyzing Climate Change Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kremers, H.; Nijkamp, P.; Wang, S.

    2002-01-01

    The current unsustainable trends in greenhouse gas emissions as projected in the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have raised considerable environmental concern among the developed countries. This concern has led to an agreement among these countries on goals

  1. Germany's climate policy: Facing an automobile dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gössling, Stefan; Metzler, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Germany has one of the most ambitious climate policy goals worldwide, having pledged to reduce national emissions by 40% by 2020, and 80–95% by 2050 (base year: 1990). 2015 data suggests that progress on decarbonisation has slowed, also because emissions from the transport sector have grown. Road transport, which is contributing 20.5% to Germany's CO_2 emissions, has become a major obstacle to achieving the country's policy goals. This paper analyses energy use from road transport in order to provide a better understanding of emissions from this sub-sector. Data is derived from representative longitudinal household surveys as well as mobility and fuel diaries for the period 2002–2015. Analysis reveals significant growth in energy-inefficient car choices, as well as considerable differences in mobility patterns (distances driven, driving styles) and actual fuel consumption between car segments. Findings suggest that German transport policies will fail to deliver significant emission reductions if complexities in car model choices and use patterns are ignored. Both command-and-control and market-based measures will be needed to align the transport sector with climate goals, while persisting policy inconsistencies will also have to be addressed. Findings are of central relevance for EU-wide and global climate policy in the transport sector. - Highlights: • Emissions from German road transport have remained constant between 1990 and 2015. • Non-progress on transport decarbonisation is barrier to national mitigation goals. • Analysis shows that wide range of complexities are overlooked by government. • Policies need to consider car fleet segmentation and driving patterns. • Command-and-control as well as market-based measures needed.

  2. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arvai, J. [Environmental Science and Policy Program, and Dept. of CARRS, Michigan State University, 305 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Bridge, G. [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma (United States); Dolsak, N. [University of Washington, Bothell (United States); Franzese, R. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A. [Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio (United States); Robbins, P. [University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona (United States); Richards, K. [Indiana University, Terre Haute, Indiana (United States); Smith Korfmacher, K. [University of Rochester, Rochester (United States); Tansey, J. [Oxford University, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2006-09-15

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor.

  3. Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem. Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvai, J.; Bridge, G.; Dolsak, N.; Franzese, R.; Koontz, T.; Luginbuhl, A.; Sohngen, B.; Thompson, A.; Robbins, P.; Richards, K.; Smith Korfmacher, K.; Tansey, J.

    2006-01-01

    To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor

  4. Impact of Climate Change. Policy Uncertainty in Power Investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, W.; Yang, M.

    2006-10-01

    Climate change policies are being introduced or actively considered in all IEA member countries, changing the investment conditions and technology choices in the energy sector. Many of these policies are at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is currently high. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impacts of climate change policy on power investment. We use Real Options Analysis approach in the study and model uncertain carbon price and fuel price with stochastic variables. The analysis compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with fuel price uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies. This paper considers views on the importance of climate policy risk, how it is managed, and how it might affect investment behaviour. The implications for policymakers are analyzed, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy design decisions. We found that in many cases, the dominant risks facing base-load generation investment decisions will be market risks associated with electricity and fuel prices. However, under certain conditions and for some technologies, climate policy uncertainty can be an important risk factor, creating an incentive to delay investment and raising investment thresholds. This paper concludes that government climate change policies to promote investment in low-carbon technologies should aim to overcome this incentive to delay by sending long-term investment signals backed up by strengthened international policy action to enhance domestic policy credibility

  5. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  6. Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Simon [London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (United Kingdom); Asheim, Geir B. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics

    2011-08-15

    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies, where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs. In this paper, we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism (SDU) as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy. Unlike undiscounted utilitarianism, which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility, SDU is an axiomatically based criterion, which departs from DU by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future. Using the DICE integrated assessment model to run risk analysis, we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a 'business as usual' development path. Consequently SDU and DU differ, and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is (sometimes significantly) higher under SDU than under DU. Under SDU, stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare, even for a relatively high utility discount rate. (orig.)

  7. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  8. Issues in International Climate Policy: Theory and Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.; Gupta, J.; Kok, M.T.J.

    2003-01-01

    Climate change is currently at the center of scientific and political debate, and the need for well-designed international climate policies is widely recognized. Despite this, the complexity of both the climate change problem and the international negotiation process has resulted in a large number

  9. EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

  10. Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

  11. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

  12. Economy of climate policy. Criticism and alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    The economy of climate policy is characterized by notions as cost-benefit analysis, optimal policy and optimal timing. It is argued that the use of such notions reflects an unjustified optimism with respect to the contribution of economic science to the discussion on climate policy. The complexity of the biosphere and the uncertainty about climatic change, as well as their socio-economic consequences, are extensive. Another economic approach of the climate problem is suggested, based on complexity and historical justice. 12 refs [nl

  13. Moving Toward Climate Budgeting : Policy Note

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2014-01-01

    Climate change action by countries - both mitigation measures and adaptation measures requires planning over a long horizon in the face of uncertainty as well as, for many governments, costly financing in the near term. While flows of international climate finance have grown in recent years, it has become ever clearer that countries need to consider all policy instruments. Climate change i...

  14. Co-benefits of climate policies: a potential keystone of climate negotiations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassen, Christophe; Guivarch, Celine; Lecocq, Franck

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5. IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess co-benefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greenhouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years

  15. Policy in Transition. New Framework for Russia's Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotov, V.

    2002-07-01

    In 2000, Russia entered the second round of radical reforms of its economic and political system. These changes affect the institutions of the macro- and microeconomic policy, of the energy policy, as well as the institutions of the climate policy. Thus, the framework is currently being built in Russia within which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are being and will be implemented. Success, or failure, in Russia's interactions with the international community in implementation of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol would depend, particularly, on whether it would be able to establish renovated climate policy institutions in the nearest future. Main provisions of the Kyoto Protocol open good perspectives for the climate policy of Russia. For these favourable perspectives to become a reality, Russia will have to accomplish quite a lot at the domestic, national level. Here, Russia is facing some serious problems. Among them are recently emerged problems with ratification of Kyoto Protocol

  16. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  17. Comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Aijun; Lin, Boqiang

    2013-01-01

    Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter mainly due to growing consumption of fossil fuels. In 2009, the Chinese government committed itself to reducing domestic carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Therefore, it is a top priority for the Chinese government to adopt efficient policy instruments to reduce its carbon intensity. Against this background, this paper develops a general equilibrium model and seeks to provide empirical contributions by comparing the potential impacts of several different policy options to reduce China's carbon emissions. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, these climate policies would affect the structure of economy and contribute to carbon emissions reduction and carbon intensity reduction. Secondly, there would be significant differences in the economic and environmental effects among different climate policies and hence, the government would trade-off among different economic objectives to overcome any potential resistances. Thirdly, there would be considerable differences in the emissions effects of absolute and intensity-based carbon emissions controls, implying that the government might adopt different climate policies for absolute or intensity-based carbon emissions controls. Looking ahead, the government should trade-off among different objectives when designing climate reforms. - Highlights: • We develop a static general equilibrium model to simulate the impacts of climate policies. • We compare the potential impacts of various climate policies in China. • We discuss how to design these policies to make them more effective

  18. European Union Climate Change Policy: in the nexus of internal policy-making and itnernational negotiations

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Hui

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the dissertation is to examine the European Union s climate policy in the nexus of domestic policy-making and international negotiations. I firstly test the EU s internal climate policy-making by applying the rational choice institutionalism on the model of institution and preference affect EU s policy outcomes and conclude that: as the EU has a convergent preference, the EU s unique decision-making procedure, the entrepreneurship and EU s membership had been driving EU s climate...

  19. Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-21

    Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

  20. Energy policies and climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, A.

    1994-01-01

    One year after the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, an assessment is made of what progress is being made towards sustainability. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate change has provided the expert background for action to protect the climate. It lists some of the measured and noticed first signs of climate change as identified by the German Bundestag Enquete Commission, and mentions the effects of climatically induced catastrophes on the world's insurance industry and the fact that the Third World is likely to suffer most from climatic change. A Greenpeace report advocates the phasing out of fossil fuels and of nuclear power as a way to combat climatic change. The article reviews developments relevant to protecting the climate worldwide and specifically in the Netherlands, incorporating Greenpeace's views on these

  1. Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

    2014-12-01

    To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

  2. People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

  3. People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

    2012-07-01

    How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

  4. Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

    2010-05-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission

  5. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Parker, Larry; Blodgett, John

    2008-01-01

    The 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change requires that signatories, including the United States, establish policies for constraining future emission levels of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2). The George H. W...

  6. EUROPEAN UNION POLICIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Canter

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges that humanity faces in the 21st century, and for the European Union, combating this phenomenon represents an important element, which is reflected both in the actions carried out in recent years, domestically and internationally, as well as in the EU policy on climate change. Within the EU, regulations were adopted, that demonstrate the importance that the Union confers to the limitation of this phenomenon, stressing at the same time the need for an integrated policy framework to ensure the security for potential investors and a coordinated approach between Member States. This paper will present recent developments for the most important policies to combat and mitigate climate change in the European Union, starting with "20-20-20" objectives, which are to be met through the package "Energy-Climate Change", continuing with 2030 and 2050 timeframes, and finally presenting the main lines of action to combat climate change.

  7. Comment: Legal Liability as Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Hilary Sigman

    2007-01-01

    Several U.S. states have attempted to use of legal liability imposed on greenhouse gas emitters as a public policy instrument for climate change. This brief comment considers the desirability of this approach, focusing on three possible roles for climate change liability: as a source of compensation, as a direct influence on greenhouse gas concentrations, and as a means to facilitate the adoption of ex ante public policies to control greenhouse gases. The strongest argument for liability may ...

  8. EU climate policy: dividing up the commons

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Delgado

    2007-01-01

    Juan Delgado discusses the economic impact of climate change policies. The EU has committed to an ambitious climate change agenda. The challenge facing Europe now is how to meet the targets at a minimum cost and how to allocate the cost in such a way that it has a neutral impact on competitiveness. This note was presented in August 2007 to the Economic Policy Committee of the EU.

  9. Economy and policy of climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faucheux, S.; Joumni, H.

    2005-01-01

    In an economical framework, this book discusses the following topics: policies against the climatic changes, the scientific prospectives facing this policies priority, their costs, the new international market of carbon, the future technological innovations. This book exposes also socio-economic, geopolitical and technological questions bound to theses climatic changes and their regulation. It analyzes more especially the North-South strategies and the flexibility tools challenges of the Kyoto protocol. (A.L.B.)

  10. The carbon rent economics of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalkuhl, Matthias; Brecha, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. We assess whether and how owners of oil, gas and coal can be compensated by a carbon permit grandfathering rule. One important finding is that reducing (cumulative) fossil resource use could actually increase scarcity rents and benefit fossil resource owners under a permit grandfathering rule. For our standard parameter setting overall scarcity rents under climate policy increase slightly. While low discount rates of resource owners imply higher rent losses due to climate policies, new developments of reserves or energy efficiency improvements could more than double scarcity rents under climate policy. Another important implication is that agents receiving the climate rent (regulating institutions or owners of grandfathered permits) could influence the climate target such that rents are maximized, rather than to limit global warming to a socially desirable level. For our basic parameter setting, rents would be maximized at approximately 650 GtC emissions (50% of business-as-usual emissions) implying a virtual certainty of exceeding a 2 °C target and a likelihood of 4 °C warming. - Highlights: • Fossil resource rents form a substantial share of the global GDP. • Fossil resource owners can benefit from climate policy. • Climate targets might be influenced by rent-maximizing aspects

  11. Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

  12. A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

  13. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  14. Targets for global climate policy : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater

  15. A history of international climate change policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, J.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the history of international climate change policy over the last 30 years, divided into five periods. It examines the pre-1990 period, the period leading up to the adoption of the Climate Change Convention, the period of the Kyoto Protocol until US withdrawal,

  16. Economic theory and climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, I.; Ackerman, F.

    1999-01-01

    Our willingness to embrace climate change policies depends on our perception of their benefits and costs. Evaluation of these costs and benefits requires careful economic analysis. Yet the standard tools for such assessment - computable general equilibrium (CGE) models - are inadequate on several grounds. Their underlying theory suffers from well-known logical difficulties; in general, their equilibria may be neither unique, stable, nor efficient. Moreover, real-world phenomena such as increasing returns to scale, learning, and technological innovation are neglected in CGE models. These phenomena make the resulting equilibria in the models inefficient; in the real world they can lock society into sub-optimal technology choices. They introduce uncertainty and path-dependence, annihilating the concept of a single efficient allocation produced by the unfettered market. Yet conventional economics assesses the cost of policies solely on the basis of their departure from a purportedly efficient equilibrium - ignoring deeper structural changes that are often decisive in practice. New socioeconomic theories and models are emerging that allow for bounded rationality, the limiting and enabling character of institutions, technological change, and the complexities and uncertainties in economic evolution. Meanwhile, existing models should be modified to better reflect real-world phenomena and to abandon unfounded assumptions about the inherent ''inefficiencies'' of government intervention in the market. (author)

  17. Uncertain climate policy and the green paradox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, Sjak A.; Tsur, Y.; Zemel, A.; Moser, E.; Semmler, W.; Tragler, G.; Veliov, V.

    2014-01-01

    Unintended consequences of announcing a climate policy well in advance of its implementation have been studied in a variety of situations. We show that a phenomenon akin to the so-called “Green-Paradox” holds also when the policy implementation date is uncertain. Governments are compelled, by

  18. Towards a policy model for climate change mitigation: China's experience with wind power development and lessons for developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lema, A.; Ruby, K. [Univ. of Roskilde (Denmark). International Development Studies

    2008-06-15

    China has created a policy path to alleviate the pressure on carbon dioxide emissions. As other developing countries with rising per capita GDPs are emerging as important greenhouse gas emitters, the experience of China holds important lessons. In order to mitigate the reality of climate change, developing countries need carefully to assess appropriate policy models for renewable energy development. This article contains an analysis of the Chinese policy path and impact on the speed and benefit of domestic wind turbine installations. It is found that policy-makers have faced a critical trade-off between 'fast-track' cutbacks on fossil energy sources through wind power development and 'slow-track' wind power installations through development of a local manufacturing industry. China's choice of the slow-track model has proved constructive with the largest potential for CO{sub 2} reductions. The article identifies China's ability to coordinate policies for supply and demand as an inevitable factor for the success of the model. The immediate value of this analysis is to the benefit of developing countries' future choice of policy model. Policy-makers in emerging economies that wish to develop renewable energy sources have to take into account the institutional, manufacturing and wind resource foundations of their respective countries. The article concludes that a majority of developing countries may have to look towards a fast-track policy model. However, the larger emerging economies with manufacturing capabilities and strong wind resource endowments could realize a greater part of the potential for emission reductions through the slow-track model of wind energy development.

  19. White Paper No 54 (2000-2001). Norwegian Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This White Paper from the Norwegian Government discusses the climate problem as a global challenge, Norway's strategy for meeting the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, the national climate policies of other countries, Norwegian national climate policy in the short term, and Norwegian national climate policy with the Kyoto agreement in force

  20. Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigras, S. C.

    2009-12-01

    It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

  1. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  2. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  3. Policy options for stabilizing global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashof, D.A.; Tirpak, D.A.

    1990-12-01

    This report to congress by the US EPA explains the greenhouse effect and its influence on global climate. It outlines the trends in the greenhouse gases - their concentration history, distribution, sources and sinks and chemical and radiative properties. Climate change processes are discussed including climate feedbacks. Human activities affecting trace gases and climate are explained, followed by a chapter on the technical options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which looks at energy services, energy supply, industry, forestry and agriculture. The future is considered, and the final chapters are concerned with policy options and international cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 934 refs., 102 figs., 84 tabs

  4. How will climate change policy affect upstream oil and gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyndman, R.

    2003-01-01

    This presentation outlined the status of climate change policies in Canada and Alberta for large industry with particular reference to the effect that the policies may have on upstream oil and gas. Global climate change and energy use was outlined along with what actions that should be taken to secure energy supplies and stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An economic model projection of global carbon dioxide emissions without the Kyoto agreement was presented. Global action on climate change will likely include greater efforts in energy efficiency to slow the growth in demand for energy. However, demand for oil and gas is still likely to increase in the next few decades due to a growing population worldwide. The author emphasized that developing countries should not forgo economic growth to avoid higher energy use. It was argued that Canadian climate change policies are out of line with the global climate change effort because they focus on short-term reductions rather than developing technologies. The policies also divert investment to competing suppliers that do not impose GHG costs, with no global GHG benefit. The author described why Alberta climate change policy rejects the Kyoto target. Natural Resource Canada's approach to large industrial emitters was also discussed along with a proposed policy framework by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) for long term certainty. 2 tabs., 12 figs

  5. Ecological public health and climate change policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, George P

    2010-01-01

    The fact that health and disease are products of a complex interaction of factors has long been recognized in public health circles. More recently, the term 'ecological public health' has been used to characterize an era underpinned by the paradigm that, when it comes to health and well-being, 'everything matters'. The challenge for policy makers is one of navigating this complexity to deliver better health and greater equality in health. Recent work in Scotland has been concerned to develop a strategic approach to environment and health. This seeks to embrace complexity within that agenda and recognize a more subtle relationship between health and place but remain practical and relevant to a more traditional hazard-focused environmental health approach. The Good Places, Better Health initiative is underpinned by a new problem-framing approach using a conceptual model developed for that purpose. This requires consideration of a wider social, behavioural etc, context. The approach is also used to configure the core systems of the strategy which gather relevant intelligence, subject it to a process of evaluation and direct its outputs to a broad policy constituency extending beyond health and environment. This paper highlights that an approach, conceived and developed to deliver better health and greater equality in health through action on physical environment, also speaks to a wider public health agenda. Specifically it offers a way to help bridge a gap between paradigm and policy in public health. The author considers that with development, a systems-based approach with close attention to problem-framing/situational modelling may prove useful in orchestrating what is a necessarily complex policy response to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

  6. Tropical forest policies for the global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

  7. Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, In Chang; Tol, Richard S.J.; Hofkes, Marjan W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. - Highlights: • A fat tail is classified and the tail effect on climate policy is discussed. • The optimal carbon tax is not necessarily unbounded. • The basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. • This is a numerical confirmation of the recent theoretical research.

  8. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  9. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  10. Transport policies related to climate change mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Kappel, Jannik

    and their results are introduced as well. To provide an overview of current trends, related scientific projects and other analyses on climate change mitigation and transport are given in the report. The references used in this report can also serve as a source of data and inspiration for the reader. This report......This report presents the Danish national policies on reducing the emissions of greenhouse gasses and reducing Denmark’s dependency on fossil fuels in the transport sector, as well as some of the results of the policies. Systematic focus on efficient transport and climate mitigation started in 2008...... challenges for the transport sectors, which has not yet been systematically analysed from any Governmental body. In this report we list projects which have done so. The first chapter describes policies and initiatives of international relevance within climate mitigation. The following chapters explain...

  11. Clashing strategic cultures and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ceronsky, M.; Hepburn, C.; Obersteiner, M.; Yamagata, Y.

    2004-07-01

    Kagan (2002) argues that the different responses of Europeans and Americans to major strategic and international challenges is not simply due to differences in the current administrations, but rather results from (i) a power gap and (ii) differing ideologies. This article applies Kagan's theory to climate policy, employing terrorism policy as a point of comparison. We argue that the power gap between Europe and America is unable to explain the differences in climate policy. In contrast, the ideology gap may indeed have some explanatory value. Furthermore, we argue that one additional feature is critical - the costs and benefits imposed by climate change and terrorism prevention, and the process by which such costs and benefits are evaluated, differ between America and Europe. (author)

  12. Does the Bush Administration's climate policy mean climate protection?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, Odile; Perkaus, James F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper analyzes the two major components of the Bush Administration's climate policy, namely an emission intensity target and a technology strategy. The question is whether those components will generate net emission reductions that will contribute to the stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration at a safe level in the long run. It comes out that the Bush Administration climate policy does not guarantee any meaningful contribution to climate protection. The lenient emission intensity target set by the Administration will most likely allow near term emissions to grow. In the long run, the Bush Administration places a big bet on future climate-friendly technological breakthroughs to cost-effectively compensate for the current and near term net emission increases. But the outcomes of those technological developments are uncertain in terms of emission reduction potential, cost, and timing. The way towards enhanced climate protection will most likely not come from the policies of the current Administration, but rather from the growing concern about the climate issue in Congress and at the state, corporate and civil society levels. These combined forces may raise the playing field at the federal level in the near future

  13. Climate protection policy. On Germany's pioneer role

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuebler, Knut

    2014-01-01

    After a downward trend of many years Germany's energy-related CO 2 emissions have risen again slightly over the past two years. This increase has prompted the federal government to initiate a new climate protection action campaign. After almost 30 years of experience in the field of climate protection policy there is every reason for Germany to be more consistent in using its political scope to act on the unrestrained increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. Climate Change Science,Technology & Policy

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Table of contents. Climate Change Science,Technology & Policy · Slide 2 · Slide 3 · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Millions at Risk from Parry et al., 2001 · Slide 7 · Slide 8 · Slide 9 · Slide 10 · Climate Change · Is the global warming in the 20th century due to the increase in radiation emitted by the sun? Frohlich C, Lean J. 1998; ...

  15. Robustness of climate metrics under climate policy ambiguity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, Tommi; Lindroos, Tomi J.; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We assess the economic impacts of using different climate metrics. • The setting is cost-efficient scenarios for three interpretations of the 2C target. • With each target setting, the optimal metric is different. • Therefore policy ambiguity prevents the selection of an optimal metric. • Robust metric values that perform well with multiple policy targets however exist. -- Abstract: A wide array of alternatives has been proposed as the common metrics with which to compare the climate impacts of different emission types. Different physical and economic metrics and their parameterizations give diverse weights between e.g. CH 4 and CO 2 , and fixing the metric from one perspective makes it sub-optimal from another. As the aims of global climate policy involve some degree of ambiguity, it is not possible to determine a metric that would be optimal and consistent with all policy aims. This paper evaluates the cost implications of using predetermined metrics in cost-efficient mitigation scenarios. Three formulations of the 2 °C target, including both deterministic and stochastic approaches, shared a wide range of metric values for CH 4 with which the mitigation costs are only slightly above the cost-optimal levels. Therefore, although ambiguity in current policy might prevent us from selecting an optimal metric, it can be possible to select robust metric values that perform well with multiple policy targets

  16. Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Csete

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

  17. Political motives in climate and energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruvoll, Annegrete; Dalen, Hanne Marit; Larsen, Bodil M.

    2012-07-01

    Standard economic theory provides clear guidance on the design of cost-efficient policy in the presence of imperfect markets and externalities. However, observed policies reveal extensive discrepancies between principles and practise. Based on interviews with core politicians from the Norwegian parliament, we investigate causes for the lack of cost efficiency in climate and energy policy. We find that politicians agree with the notion of cost efficiency in principle, but rather than ascribing efficient instruments directed at specific policy goals, they include concerns for industrial and regional development, income distribution and employment in the environmental policy design. Lacking insight in the functioning of economic instruments and perceptions of a non-binding budget constraint also violate the requirements for efficient policy decisions. The findings point to the role of economists and social scientists to communicate the functioning of complex instruments. Improved compensation procedures could help reduce the politicians' incentives to undermine efficiency in order to avoid unwanted distributional effects.(Author)

  18. Development of an integrated model for the Campaspe catchment: a tool to help improve understanding of the interaction between society, policy, farming decision, ecology, hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwanaga, Takuya; Zare, Fateme; Croke, Barry; Fu, Baihua; Merritt, Wendy; Partington, Daniel; Ticehurst, Jenifer; Jakeman, Anthony

    2018-06-01

    Management of water resources requires understanding of the hydrology and hydrogeology, as well as the policy and human drivers and their impacts. This understanding requires relevant inputs from a wide range of disciplines, which will vary depending on the specific case study. One approach to gain understanding of the impact of climate and society on water resources is through the use of an integrated modelling process that engages stakeholders and experts in specifics of problem framing, co-design of the underpinning conceptual model, and discussion of the ensuing results. In this study, we have developed such an integrated modelling process for the Campaspe basin in northern Victoria, Australia. The numerical model built has a number of components: - Node/link based surface water hydrology module based on the IHACRES rainfall-streamflow model - Distributed groundwater model for the lower catchment (MODFLOW) - Farm decision optimisation module (to determine irrigation requirements) - Policy module (setting conditions on availability of water based on existing rules) - Ecology module (determining the impacts of available streamflow on platypus, fish and river red gum trees) The integrated model is component based and has been developed in Python, with the MODFLOW and surface water hydrology model run in external programs, controlled by the master program (in Python). The integrated model has been calibrated using historical data, with the intention of exploring the impact of various scenarios (future climate scenarios, different policy options, water management options) on the water resources. The scenarios were selected based on workshops with, and a social survey of, stakeholders in the basin regarding what would be socially acceptable and physically plausible options for changes in management. An example of such a change is the introduction of a managed aquifer recharge system to capture dam overflows, and store at least a portion of this in the aquifer

  19. Economic development, climate and values: making policy

    OpenAIRE

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The ...

  20. International trade and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brack, D.; Grubb, M.; Windram, C.

    2000-01-01

    Can the World Trade Organisation deal with climate change? Can a world of liberalised trade implement the Kyoto Protocol? As trade and environment head for a global collision, this book provides an essential guide to one of the key confrontations. It analyzes the conflicts now intensifying. How will climate change policies, including energy and carbon taxation and the removal of energy subsidies, affect overall trade structures and volumes? Will countries tackling climate change become less competitive? What of taxing international aviation and marine fuels? Will the 'flexibility mechanisms' of the Kyoto Protocol, such as emissions trading, fall under WTO disciplines? Can trade restrictions be applied to enforce the Kyoto Protocol? (Author)

  1. Aligning climate policy with finance ministers' G20 agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar; Knopf, Brigitte; Bak, Céline; Bhattacharya, Amar

    2017-07-01

    There is no longer a choice between climate policy and no climate policy. G20 finance ministers have to play a key role in implementing smart climate policies like carbon pricing. Yet they remain reluctant to take advantage of the merits of carbon pricing for sound fiscal policy.

  2. EU Climate Policy Tracker 2011. Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoehne, N.; Geurts, F.; Teckenburg, E.; Blok, K.; Becker, D. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    Limiting the rise in the average global temperature to 2C has been the EU goal since 1996, and in December 2010 the UN recognised the need to consider a 1.5C limit. Avoiding overshooting these levels will require massive emissions reductions - in the order of 80-95% for industrialised countries, like those in the EU. The next ten years are crucial in establishing whether society will be able to make this transition, or whether temperature increase limits will be irreversibly missed. Last year, the European Union Climate Policy Tracker (EU CPT) investigated each member state's implementation of policy and legislation, and rated their progress towards a 2050 vision of deep decarbonisation using renewable energy. The uniquely developed rating scheme, modelled on appliance efficiency labels (A-G), gave an indication of how member states were doing compared to a 'low-carbon policy package'. The average score was an 'E', indicating that the level of effort needed to treble, to be on a pace to reach the 2050 vision. However, aggregating best practices across sectors and countries doubled the score - meaning that the tools are already at hand for major improvements across Europe. This report builds on last year's EU CPT by giving an update on action in member states, and an indicative trend in the rating, as well as adding a new section on EU policy. The addition of an EU section is appropriate, with the Commission having produced a roadmap on a low-carbon economy by 2050, a transport white paper, and with another roadmap for 2050 focused on energy anticipated by the end of 2011. This report seeks to answer the question of whether these and other related initiatives are sufficient to help Europe reach its low-carbon goals. When interpreting the results of this report, it is important to understand that the goal underlying the vision here is not the same as the one in the European Commission's 'low-carbon economy' roadmap

  3. Turkey's climate policy between ambition and reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieler, Wolfgang; Cetinyilmaz, Hakan

    2015-01-01

    This volume examines the Turkish climate policy and its main influencing factors. In what policy area, the priorities of Turkey between environmental, climate, and growth policies are to be located? What are the shaping factors of Turkish climate policy? What driving torques? In Turkish and international political science analyzes the subject has been previously treated only in basic approaches, so that the volume can be understood as a basic introduction to the Turkish climate policy. [de

  4. A climate for development. Climate change policy options for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okoth-Ogendo, H.W.O.; Ojwang, J.B.

    1995-01-01

    The seriousness of the potential impacts of climate change on development in Africa is now well recognized within, and increasingly outside, scientific circles. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a landmark in international environmental governance, providing a mechanism for exchange, negotiation and institution-building to re-direct development towards more efficient use of resources, especially energy. The message of 'A climate for Development' is that unless policy-makers fully understand both the international commitments made under the Convention and the essential national development priorities of their own countries, effective action on climate change is unlikely to be realized. The action needed, however, can at the same time stimulate capacity-building, planning and policy change which would strengthen the economic and ecological base of African countries. The climate change issue has hence brought us face to face with the urgency of the basic issues of sustainable development in Africa. The book discusses key issues that cut across all African countries, such as emissions and their impacts, financial resources and technology transfer for emissions abatement strategies. It then provides a sectoral analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and abatement options focusing on energy, industry, agriculture, forestry and transportation. The book concludes with guidelines for options which may be considered by African countries to ensure that climate change concerns are effectively dealt with in the context of their development priorities. 113 refs

  5. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrew, Robbie M; Peters, Glen P; Davis, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    A growing number of countries regulate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions occurring within their borders, but due to rapid growth in international trade, the products consumed in many of the same countries increasingly rely on coal, oil and gas extracted and burned in other countries where CO 2 is not regulated. As a consequence, existing national and regional climate policies may be growing less effective every year. Furthermore, countries that are dependent on imported products or fossil fuels are more exposed to energy and climate policies in other countries. We show that the combined international trade in carbon (as fossil fuels and also embodied in products) increased from 12.3 GtCO 2 (55% of global emissions) in 1997 to 17.6 GtCO 2 (60%) in 2007 (growing at 3.7% yr −1 ). Within this, trade in fossil fuels was larger (10.8 GtCO 2 in 2007) than trade in embodied carbon (6.9 GtCO 2 ), but the latter grew faster (4.6% yr −1 compared with 3.1% yr −1 for fuels). Most major economies demonstrate increased dependence on traded carbon, either as exports or as imports. Because energy is increasingly embodied in internationally traded products, both as fossil fuels and as products, energy and climate policies in other countries may weaken domestic climate policy via carbon leakage and mask energy security issues. (letter)

  6. Climate policy: Transparency for Loss and Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechler, Reinhard

    2017-10-01

    Loss and Damage (L&D) has been gaining traction since the Paris Agreement took the issue on as a separate article, arguably creating a third pillar of international climate policy. Debate so far has led to vague definitions of the remit of the L&D mechanism; research on actor perspectives may help to propel this discourse forward.

  7. Bridging the Gap between Climate Research and Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, M.; Lambert, K. F.; Buonocore, J.; Driscoll, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    The weak link between science and policy jeopardizes the wellbeing of people and the planet. Climate change is a pressing example of this disconnect. Policies are not keeping pace with the best of our knowledge from climate change research. We are working to bridge the science-policy divide and advance climate solutions by focusing on the positive health, ecosystem, and economic benefits of policy action. In 2013, we brought together an interdisciplinary team to estimate the co-benefits of U.S. power plant carbon standards for air quality and health, plus the economic value of the benefits. The results demonstrate that strong carbon standards with flexible compliance options can change the power sector, yielding substantial air quality and health benefits nationwide. The results also show that the economic value of these benefits outweighs the costs nationally and regionally. We advanced the policy applications of this research through a strategic campaign with three key elements: media communication, targeted outreach, and information for policymakers. Our strategy was to build widespread awareness of the research outcomes via media engagement, amplify our message via targeted outreach to citizens groups, and inform policy solutions by sharing research results with decision makers. The research was reported in more than 600 unique news stories in mainstream media outlets and received social media posts by members of Congress and senior White House officials. We amplified the messages via 14 webinars for citizens groups. We also held 16 briefings for policymakers and the public, in addition to meetings with relevant policy staff. Regional, state and federal policy leaders have used the research to understand air quality and health benefits of power plant carbon standards. This model of pairing research with media communication, targeted outreach, and information for policymakers is effective for bridging the gap between climate research and policy, and can be

  8. Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, R. B.

    2010-12-01

    The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

  9. Rain and sunshine in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Moor, A.

    2002-01-01

    The legal framework of the Kyoto Protocol was established during the 7th Climate Conference in Marrakech (November 2001), which opened the road to ratification and implementation. There was a single, major exception, however. the United States indicated they would not ratify the treaty since, in their view, it was fundamentally flawed. President Bush recently proposed a different approach that he saw as a better alternative to Kyoto. What is clear in any case is that both the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the alternative approach have major consequences for international climate policy. What is the significance of the Kyoto Protocol now? And what influence has America's withdrawal had? What do President Bush's proposals entail and what are the most important differences from the Kyoto Protocol? What are the implications for international climate policy?

  10. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  11. Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Vincent M.; Loeschel, Andreas; Reilly, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO 2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost effective climate policy to include a combination of R and D subsidies and CO 2 emission constraints, although R and D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO 2 constraint (i.e. CO 2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that cost effectiveness of climate policy improves if it is differentiated between technologies. Even our rudimentary distinction between CO 2 intensive technologies and non-CO 2 intensive technologies lead to this result. Such differentiated climate policy encourages growth in the non-CO 2 intensive sectors and discourages growth in CO 2 intensive sectors by harnessing positive effects of technology externalities on total factor productivity in the former and letting the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R and D subsidies or combinations of both are used as climate policy instruments. (author)

  12. Oceanic implications for climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, Ben I.

    2006-01-01

    Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its territorial sea, known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ is undoubtedly an anthropogenic CO 2 sink, it has been over-looked within international climate policy. In this paper I use an area-weighted scaling argument to show that the inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative. The advantages and disadvantages for inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink into global climate change policy are also explored. The most compelling argument for including the EEZ CO 2 sink is that it would enhance the equity and resources among coastal nations to combat and adapt against future climate change that will inherently impact coastal nations more so than land locked nations. If included, the funds raised could be used for either monitoring or adaptive coastal infrastructure among the most vulnerable nations. On the other hand, the EEZ anthropogenic CO 2 sink cannot be directly controlled by human activities and could be used as a disincentive for some developed nations to reduce fossil-fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. This may therefore dampen efforts to ultimately reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In consideration of these arguments it is therefore suggested that an 'EEZ clause' be added to Kyoto and any future international climate policy that explicitly excludes its use within national carbon accounts under these international climate frameworks

  13. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  14. A Scientific Basis for Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-08-01

    The Scientific Council on Climate Issues has been commissioned by the Swedish Government to provide a scientific assessment as a basis for the work of the Climate Committee, the all-party committee for the review of climate policy. An important part of this task is to provide a basis and recommendations for Swedish climate policy targets at national, EU and international level. In the opening chapters, the Council looks at climate change, its reasons and its consequences for ecosystems and society. The Council then makes recommendations concerning Swedish climate policy targets at global, EU and national levels, aimed at averting dangerous impact on the climate. In the concluding chapters, the Council presents a number of possible measures and policy instruments, and outlines the likely costs involved if the goals are to be achieved. Taken as a whole, the document represents a comprehensive basis for policy decisions that consider what needs to be achieved to reduce the risks of climate impact and what is actually achievable, i.e. decisions involving trade-offs between economic benefits and costs. The Council considers: that the EU's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 30-40 % by 2020 and by 75-90 % by 2050 if the Union is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that Sweden's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 20-25 % by 2020 and by 70-85 % by 2050 if Sweden is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that a national emission target for Sweden should be formulated as a target with deductible emissions allowances, i.e., that assessment of target achievement is based on the amount of emission allowances allocated or auctioned by Sweden to activities covered by the EU emissions trading scheme rather than the actual volume of emissions from these activities. The Council has provided an overview of possible measures for

  15. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1998-01-01

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  16. Energy policy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jean-Baptiste, Ph.; Ducroux, R.

    2001-01-01

    Twenty-two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are released in the air each year from the burning of fossil fuels. The problem of these massive emissions of CO 2 and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO 2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO 2 emissions worldwide. While enhancing natural carbon sinks (reforestation, soils conservation, etc...) can only buy tune for the next decades, energy savings, CO 2 capture/storage and the development of non-fossil energy sources (hydropower, nuclear, wind power,...) can be highly beneficial. In order to secure future energy needs while stabilizing the CO 2 atmospheric concentration around 550 ppm, the ratio of the CO 2 emitted per unit of energy produced must decrease from 2.6 t CO 2 /toe to 0.5-1.1 t CO 2 /toe by 2100. In a growing world economy, now dependent on fossil fuels for 90% of its energy, this will require a vast increase in the supply of carbon-free power. Among these energy sources, hydropower and nuclear energy (operated under western safety and environmental standards) are the most readily available sources capable of supplying vast amount of energy at a competitive price. Wind power is also to be encouraged, as it is expected to approach the competitiveness threshold soon. The French example, where fossil fuel CO 2 emissions were cut by 27% in a matter of a few years (1979-1986) despite increasing energy consumption, suggests that implementing CO 2 stabilization is technically feasible at a competitive price

  17. Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost

  18. Obstacles in the climate policy arena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manders, T.; Tang, P.

    2001-01-01

    Implementing climate policy is not a straightforward matter. International negotiations during the recent climate conference in The Hague ended in disagreement. With the present position of the United States chances to reach an agreement are even slimmer than ever. One of the obstacles is to what extent trade in emission rights should be allowed. Economically speaking, there are strong arguments for allowing as much flexibility as possible. Ironically, our analysis shows that the party favouring restrictions on emissions trade, the European Union, suffers most from curtailing flexibility. Another obstacle which comes up when addressing more ambitious goals in climate policy is the involvement of developing countries. A treaty should aim at emissions reductions in developing countries as well. If the potentially serious consequences of the greenhouse effect are to be avoided, that is even essential. To induce these reductions, the developed countries could consider to compensate the developing countries. For industrialised countries compensation has the effect to raise the costs of climate policy considerably

  19. European Climate Change Policy Beyond 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ulreich, S.

    2009-01-01

    Europe sees itself on the forefront to combat climate change. Consequently, the European Union has adopted in 2003 a Directive on Emissions Trading and since then, focuses more and more on effective methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there is little knowledge about the further development of Climate Change Policy in Europe after 2012. The EU has already started a review process to define the new legislation starting in 2013. Furthermore, negotiations take place to develop a successor of the Kyoto protocol. The European energy sector can deliver valuable input to the discussion about the coming climate goals and how to achieve them, by addressing the importance of new climate-friendly technologies. Furthermore, the impact of climate change goals on the current investment decisions in the energy sector has to be stressed. Europe will certainly not solve the climate problem on its own, but can help to deliver abatement technologies and to prove, that climate change can be reconciled with economic growth - provided a long-term framework is established that is in line with other goals like security of supply and affordable energy.(author).

  20. Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

  1. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-10-01

    The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

  2. Chinese climate policy - Institutions and intent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques

    2011-06-01

    Until the late 1990's, the balance of Chinese energy production and consumption was treated by the rest of the world as a net figure. No one knew what was going on inside the Chinese economy - it was a black box. As far as anyone was concerned, the Chinese would not soon be a major factor in world energy markets. Energy policy-makers realized how totally blind they were in 2004 when Chinese electricity production could not keep up with internal demand and the world experienced a surge in liquids demand as Chinese entrepreneurs fired up generator sets across the economy. No country has confronted the need to collect data and formulate coherent policy for nearly a billion and a half consumers. A number of institutional arrangements have succeeded each other until now, when stronger energy policy and administrative functions of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) are gaining traction. NDRC vice-chairman Zhang Guobao has maintained a steady hand on Chinese energy-policy evolution for several years - overseeing the increasing coherence of Chinese domestic and international energy policy - but the tension with powerful state enterprises and other vested interests still effectively defies efforts to truly centralize Chinese national-level energy policy and program authority. This study identifies the nature of the forces that drive or constrain change within China's energy sector, and explores the Chinese approach to climate change. Contents: 1. The Institutions of Energy Governance in china. 2. China's Foreign Energy Policy. 3. China's position and policy on climate change

  3. Economic convergence and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciscar, J.C.; Soria, A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper addresses the relevance of the economic convergence hypotheses between the developing and the developed world in international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions negotiations. The results are based on a two-region (the OECD and the rest of the world, ROW) neo-classical growth model with exogenous technical progress, different technological diffusion patterns, and a set of geophysical relationships that consider an environmental externality linked to GHG emissions. A game framework is taken into account in the model to capture the strategic interactions between agents. The outcome of the negotiations seems indeed to depend on the economic convergence hypotheses. Faster economic growth of the ROW countries would encourage them to further mitigate carbon emissions. (Author)

  4. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomou, V.; Patel, M.; Worrell, E.

    2004-12-01

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  5. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  6. Air pollution policy in Europe: Quantifying the interaction with greenhouse gases and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Brink, Corjan

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses the computable general equilibrium model WorldScan to analyse interactions between EU's air pollution and climate change policies. Covering the entire world and seven EU countries, WorldScan simulates economic growth in a neo-classical recursive dynamic framework, including emissions and abatement of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , N 2 O and CH 4 ) and air pollutants (SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and PM 2.5 ). Abatement includes the possibility of using end-of-pipe control options that remove pollutants without affecting the emission-producing activity itself. This paper analyses several variants of EU's air pollution policies for the year 2020. Air pollution policy will depend on end-of-pipe controls for not more than two thirds, thus also at least one third of the required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy through efficiency improvements, fuel switching and other structural changes in the economy. Greenhouse gas emissions thereby decrease, which renders climate change policies less costly. Our results show that carbon prices will fall, and may even drop to zero when the EU agrees on a more stringent air pollution policy. - Highlights: • This paper models bottom-up emission control in top-down CGE model. • We analyse interactions between air pollution and climate policies in Europe. • Structural changes induced by stringent air policies may make EU-ETS market obsolete

  7. What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haftendorn, C.; Kemfert, C.; Holz, F.

    2012-01-01

    Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often the first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possible market adjustments between demand regions through market effects are investigated with a numerical model of the global steam coal market: the “COALMOD-World” model. This equilibrium model computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and prices until 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateral European climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting policy and a fast-roll out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the broader context of climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustment effects in the coal market can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectiveness of climate policies. - Highlights: ► Interactions between climate policy and the global coal market until 2030 modeled. ► Analysis with the numerical model: “COALMOD-World”. ► Unilateral European climate policy partly compensated by market adjustment effects. ► A fast roll-out of CCS can lead to positive market adjustment effects. ► An export restricting supply-side policy generates virtuous market adjustments.

  8. The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Aijun; Du, Nan; Wei, Qian

    2014-01-01

    Because of worldwide growing concerns about global climate change, great interest has been expressed in the potential of alternative climate policies to reduce global carbon emissions. In this paper, we compare cross-country implications of alternative climate policies, including unilateral and multilateral climate policies. Our main findings are as follows. Firstly, there are large differences in cross-country effects of alternative unilateral climate policies, when the same given carbon emission reductions are achieved in each abating country respectively. Meanwhile, cross-border externalities undermine efficiency of unilateral climate policies. Secondly, there are significant differences in cross-country implications of alternative multilateral climate policies, when the same global emission reductions are allocated in several different ways among abating countries. Thirdly, it is difficult to reach a stable global climate treaty, since any abating country has the incentive to argue for small carbon emission reductions. Finally, multilateral climate policies can reduce the negative impacts of cross-border externalities, but cannot cure all cross-border externalities. Looking ahead, it will be a great policy challenge for the world to reduce carbon emissions in a cost-effective way. - highlights: • We compare impacts of unilateral climate policies across countries. • We compare effects of alternative multilateral climate policies. • We explore whether cross-border externalities disappear under multilateral climate policies

  9. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

  10. Climate change policy is an energy problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.; Lightfoot, H.D.

    1999-01-01

    In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free energy if GHG emissions are to be reduced and the atmospheric concentration of carbon eventually stabilized. Where will such large amounts of carbon free energy come from? The renewable energies (solar, wind, biomass) are dilute and enormously land-using. Their potential contribution is seemingly limited in a world in which competing demands for land for food production, living space, leisure activities, ecological preserve, and natural resource production are increasing. Nuclear energy is controversial (fission) or problematic (fusion). Fuel cells require hydrogen which must be produced using some other form of energy. Tapping the earth's mantle with its vast amount of geothermal energy may be a future possibility. The present limitations of existing alternatives to fossil fuels suggest climate change policy should focus to a greater extent on what 'can' be done, rather than the present emphasis on what 'should' be done. Once refocused, the aim of climate policy should be to spur a decades long search for and development of new carbon free energy sources and technologies capable of displacing fossil fuels and of eventually meeting the world's baseload energy requirements. (author)

  11. Local authorities in the context of energy and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, Gabriele; Cioccolanti, Luca; Polonara, Fabio; Brandoni, Caterina

    2012-01-01

    Several measures to boost the energy system towards a low-carbon future can be planned and implemented by local authorities, such as energy-saving initiatives in public buildings and lighting, information campaigns, and renewable energy pilot projects. This work analyzes the public administration's role in energy and climate policies by assessing carbon-lowering measures for properties and services managed directly by local governments in central Italy. Both short- and long-term schemes were considered in the analysis of local authority energy strategies. The MARKAL-TIMES energy model was applied to long-term energy planning to assess the effect of low-carbon initiatives on public-sector energy consumption up to 2030. Two energy scenarios were built, i.e. a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario based on current or soon-to-be-adopted national policies, and an Exemplary Public Scenario (EPS) including some further virtuous local policies suggested by local authorities. Our results show that a 20% primary energy reduction can be achieved with respect to the baseline year by means of short-term energy policies (5-year time span), while a primary energy saving of about 30% can be reached with longer-term energy policies (25-year time span), even after taking the increase in energy demand into account. This work goes to show the part that local governments can play in energy policy and their contribution to the achievement of climate goals. - Highlights: ► Assessment of Local Administration (LA) role in energy and climate policy. ► Analysis of both short-term and long-term carbon lowering measures. ► Use of MARKAL-TIMES model generator for long-term energy analysis. ► 20% primary energy reduction can be reached with short-term energy policies. ► 30% primary energy reduction can be reached with longer-term energy policies.

  12. The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technology detail in a social accounting framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sue Wing, Ian

    2008-01-01

    ''Hybrid'' climate policy simulations have sought to bridge the gap between ''bottom-up'' engineering and ''top-down'' macroeconomic models by integrating the former's energy technology detail into the latter's macroeconomic framework. Construction of hybrid models is complicated by the need to numerically calibrate them to multiple, incommensurate sources of economic and engineering data. I develop a solution to this problem following Howitt's [Howitt, R.E., 1995. Positive Mathematical Programming, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77: 329-342] positive mathematical programming approach. Using data for the U.S., I illustrate how the inputs to the electricity sector in a social accounting matrix may be allocated among discrete types of generation so as to be consistent with both technologies' input shares from engineering cost estimates, and the zero profit and market clearance conditions of the sector's macroeconomic production structure. (author)

  13. Energy policy in China: implications for global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ZhongXiang Zhang [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

    1998-12-31

    This is the first systematic and comprehensive analysis of the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy. It evaluates the economics of climate change and provides national, cost-effective policies for climate change. The book consists of three main parts, firstly, an analysis of the Chinese energy system to increase awareness of the implications of this sector for China`s future carbon dioxide emissions, secondly, a macroeconomic analysis of carbon dioxide emissions limits using a newly-developed computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy; and finally, a cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options by means of a technology-oriented dynamic optimization model.

  14. Science and climate policy: A history lesson

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrick, C.N.

    1992-01-01

    As a nation, the authors are engaged in a great deal of soul searching about the consequences of possible global climate change, aware that the authors must make choices but unsure when to make them or what they should be. Contrary to popular belief, this is not the first time that the nation will have to make major policy decisions based on the possibility of human-induced climate change. More than 100 years ago, the US government encouraged wide-scale settlement and development of the West, partly because of a scientifically grounded belief that early Western pioneers had caused the climate to become moister. Today, the US Global Climate Research Program has embarked on the task of resolving the many scientific uncertainties. As Powell learned a century ago, however, such information is critical but not sufficient to determining how a nation might respond to risk. If global climate research and assessment are to be driven by social relevance rather than scientific curiosity, these studies must reflect sociocultural as well as physical factors

  15. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

    2014-01-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  16. The Mexican hydro-meteorological disasters and climate network (redesclim) as model on outreach decision makers on disaster public policy in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Rodriguez-Estevez, J. M., Sr.; Romo-Aguilar, M. D. L.; Brito-Castillo, L.; Salinas-Prieto, A.; Gonzalez-Sosa, E.; Pérez-Campuzano, E.

    2017-12-01

    REDESCLIM was designed and develop in 2011 due to a public call from The Science and Technology Mexican Council (CONACYT); CONACYT lead the activities for its organization and development among the academic community. REDESCLIM was created to enhance the capacity of response to hydro-meteorological disasters and climate events through an integrative effort of researchers, technologists, entrepreneurs, politicians and society. Brief summary of our objectives: 1) Understand the causes of disasters, to reduce risks to society and ecosystems 2) Support research and interdisciplinary assessment of the physical processes in natural and social phenomena to improve understanding of causes and impacts 3) Strengths collaboration with academic, government, private and other interdisciplinary networks from Mexico and other countries 4) Build human capacity and promote the development of skills 5) Recommend strategies for climate hazard prevention, mitigation and response, especially for hazard with the greatest impacts in Mexico, such as hurricanes, floods, drought, wild fires and other extremes events. We provide a continues communication channel on members research results to provide scientific information that could be used for different proposes, specificaly for decision makers who are dealing with ecological and hydro meteorological problems that can result in disasters, and provide a services menu based on the members scientific projects, publications, teaching courses, in order to impact public policy as final result. http://www.redesclim.org.mx. So far we have some basic results: Fiver national meetings (participants from 35 countries around the world), 7 Workshops and seminars (virtual and in-person), Climatic data platforms ( http://clicom.mex.cicese.mx, http://clicom-mex.cicese.mx/malla, http://atlasclimatico.unam.mx/REDESCLIM2/ ), climate change scenarios for the general public at http://escenarios.inecc.gob.mx, 14 seed projects, one model to hurricane simulation

  17. Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemfert, C.

    2001-10-01

    This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

  18. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  19. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  20. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  1. Carbon leakage revisited. Unilateral climate policy under directed technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maria, Corrado Di; Van derWerf, E.

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the consequences of unilateral climate policy in the presence of directed technical change. We develop a dynamic two-country model in which two otherwise identical countries differ in their environmental policy: one of the countries enforces a (binding) cap on emissions while the other does not. Focusing on carbon leakage, we show how, compared with a 'traditional' endogenous growth model, directed technical change will always lead to lower emissions in the unconstrained country. When clean and dirty goods are good substitutes, it may even be induced to reduce its emissions below the optimum level when both countries are unconstrained, so leakage is negative

  2. US climate policy: evolution and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agrawala, S.; Andresen, S.

    2001-03-01

    Climate change is a problem which US science has significantly helped to bring to the world's attention. It now requires initiatives in US domestic policy for even the first steps towards any realistic global resolution of this problem. This paper addresses three questions: (1) How has US climate policy evolved since climate change became an international political concern in the late 1980s?; (2) what is the relative significance of various factors, both domestic and international, in shaping this evolution?; and (3) what are some likely future scenarios for the climate regime and the role of the US under the new Bush (Jr.) administration? This analysis suggests that the US has generally played a cautious, even blocking role on the international arena, although the period between 1992 and 1997 witnessed a rather uneven march towards progressivism, culminating in the US agreeing to a 7 per cent cut in its greenhouse emissions by 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. US policy during the Bush (Sr.) and Clinton administrations was primarily shaped by powerful ideologues, while a second critical determinant was the constitutional separation of powers between the executive and legislature. Scientific assessments and international negotiations meanwhile have given climate change unusual stamina on the domestic agenda, while the preferred set of policy responses has been constrained by a national culture that gives primacy to the market over the state. Looking into the future, the recent one-two punch delivered by President George W. Bush in reversing his pledge to regulate carbon dioxide followed by a rejection of US commitments under the Kyoto Protocol renders any expectation of measures to reduce domestic emissions unrealistic, and is likely to cripple the treaty in its present form. The possibility of an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol also appears very remote at this time. However, while official action is unlikely, it is possible that the growth of US

  3. Linking Physical Climate Research and Economic Assessments of Mitigation Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainforth, David; Calel, Raphael

    2017-04-01

    Evaluating climate change policies requires economic assessments which balance the costs and benefits of climate action. A certain class of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) are widely used for this type of analysis; DICE, PAGE and FUND are three of the most influential. In the economics community there has been much discussion and debate about the economic assumptions implemented within these models. Two aspects in particular have gained much attention: i) the costs of damages resulting from climate change - the so-called damage function, and ii) the choice of discount rate applied to future costs and benefits. There has, however, been rather little attention given to the consequences of the choices made in the physical climate models within these IAMS. Here we discuss the practical aspects of the implementation of the physical models in these IAMS, as well as the implications of choices made in these physical science components for economic assessments[1]. We present a simple breakdown of how these IAMS differently represent the climate system as a consequence of differing underlying physical models, different parametric assumptions (for parameters representing, for instance, feedbacks and ocean heat uptake) and different numerical approaches to solving the models. We present the physical and economic consequences of these differences and reflect on how we might better incorporate the latest physical science understanding in economic models of this type. [1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., "On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.

  4. Policy means of control in the climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Using the MARKAL simulation tool, different economic incentives in climate mitigation policy such as tradable emission permits, green certificates and carbon dioxide taxes have been analyzed. The analysis shows that there is an important advantage in applying the emission reductions internationally compared to a national policy, due to the varying marginal costs for the measures in different countries. The analysis also reveals at which price levels the Nordic countries as a whole become net sellers or net buyers of emission permits. The effects of combining emission permits with green certificates are analyzed, e.g. the inverse relation between permit and certificate prices. An appendix to the report gives a description of the Swedish energy system, emissions world-wide and examples of cost-effective mitigation measures for Sweden

  5. City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Tuomisto, Jouni; Jantunen, Matti; Pärjälä, Erkki; Sabel, Clive E

    2017-06-01

    Climate change mitigation policies aim to reduce climate change through reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions whereas adaption policies seek to enable humans to live in a world with increasingly variable and more extreme climatic conditions. It is increasingly realised that enacting such policies will have unintended implications for public health, but there has been less focus on their implications for wellbeing. Wellbeing can be defined as a positive mental state which is influenced by living conditions. As part of URGENCHE, an EU funded project to identify health and wellbeing outcomes of city greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, a survey designed to measure these living conditions and levels of wellbeing in Kuopio, Finland was collected in December 2013. Kuopio was the northmost among seven cities in Europe and China studied. Generalised estimating equation modelling was used to determine which living conditions were associated with subjective wellbeing (measured through the WHO-5 Scale). Local greenspace and spending time in nature were associated with higher levels of wellbeing whereas cold housing and poor quality indoor air were associated with lower levels of wellbeing. Thus adaption policies to increase greenspace might, in addition to reducing heat island effects, have the co-benefit of increasing wellbeing and improving housing insulation.

  6. Climate policy, asymmetric information and firm survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagem, C.

    2001-02-01

    The purpose of this paper is to compare the effect of different domestic climate policy instruments under asymmetric information when the regulator wants to secure the survival of a specific firm. It is a well-known result from economic theory that emission taxes lead to a cost-effective distribution of abatement across polluters. However, if the regulator wants to ensure the survival of a specific firm, it may need to design policy instruments that reduce the firm's cost of complying with an emission tax regime. The climate policy instruments considered in this paper are tradable emission permits with distribution of free permits, emission taxes in combination with a fixed subsidy, and two types of voluntary agreements. It demonstrates first that if distributing free tradable permits shall have a preventing effect, the allocation of permits has to be made contingent on production. It further shows that a voluntary agreement where a specific abatement target is set by the regulator can prevent a shutdown but leads to lower welfare than the use of emission taxes in combination with a fixed subsidy. And finally it illustrates that a voluntary agreement designed as a menu of abatement contracts increases social welfare compared to an emission tax regime

  7. Key uncertainties in climate change policy: Results from ICAM-2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to: inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives; and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.0. This model includes demographics, economic activities, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate change, sea level rise and other impact modules and the numerous associated feedbacks. The model has over 700 objects of which over 1/3 are uncertain. These have been grouped into seven different classes of uncertain items. The impact of uncertainties in each of these items can be considered individually or in combinations with the others. In this paper we demonstrate the relative contribution of various sources of uncertainty to different outcomes in the model. The analysis shows that climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. Extreme uncertainties in indirect aerosol forcing and behavioral response to climate change (adaptation) were characterized by using bounding analyses; the results suggest that these extreme uncertainties can dominate the choice of policy outcomes.

  8. Modeling glacial climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

    1984-01-01

    Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

  9. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...

  10. Climate change and energy policy in Chile: Up in smoke?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mundaca T, Luis

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides an ex-post assessment of the climate and energy policy developments in Chile emerging from a neoliberal economic model, during the period 1971–2007. First, correlation and regression analyses were performed to analyse historical CO 2 emissions as a product of demographic, economic and energy-wide drivers. Then I estimate indicators related to CO 2 emissions, energy use and economic activity. In the light of empirical results, I identify policy instruments and structural issues. Finally, I present a comparative analysis of Chile and other Latin American countries. Statistical tests show that variability of CO 2 emissions is explained mostly by GDP per capita (‘affluence’) than any other tested variable. Indicators show that the diversification and decarbonisation of the energy mix has been a major policy challenge. With two notable exceptions (hydro and natural gas), the CO 2 intensity of the energy supply mix suggests no effective policies, while energy security crises triggered negative carbon effects and increased prices. No clear policies to promote energy efficiency can be identified until 2005. Explicit policy instruments to promote renewable energy are only recognised after 2004. The results strongly suggest that Chile lacked of policies to effectively decarbonise its energy–economy system. - Highlight: ► The first paper that quantitatively assesses key drivers of CO 2 emissions in Chile. ► It examines energy and climate policy development during the period 1971–2007. ► GDP per capita (‘affluence’) is the main determinant of CO 2 emissions. ► Diversification and decarbonisation of energy mix has been a major policy challenge. ► Policy approach under analysed period not suited for a low-carbon economy.

  11. Explaining citizens’ perceptions of international climate-policy relevance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleich, Joachim; Faure, Corinne

    2017-01-01

    This paper empirically analyses the antecedents of citizens’ perceptions of the relevance of international climate policy. Its use of representative surveys in the USA, China and Germany controls for different environmental attitudes and socio-economic factors between countries. The findings of the micro-econometric analysis suggest that the perceived relevance of international climate policy is positively affected by its perceived effectiveness, approval of the key topics discussed at international climate conferences, and environmental attitudes, but is not affected by perceived procedural justice. A higher level of perceived trust in international climate policy was positively related to perceived relevance in the USA and in China, but not in Germany. Citizens who felt that they were well informed and that their position was represented at climate summits were more likely to perceive international climate policy as relevant in China in particular. Generally, the results show only weak evidence of socio-demographic effects. - Highlights: • Perceptions of climate-policy relevance increase with perceptions of effectiveness. • In China and the USA, trust increases perceptions of climate-policy relevance. • Environmental attitudes are related to perceptions of climate-policy relevance. • In China, well-informed citizens perceive climate policy as more relevant. • Socio-demographics only weakly affect perceptions of climate-policy relevance.

  12. Economy of climatic change. From mitigation to adaptation policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rousset, N.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change adaptation policies are the subject of this thesis. It has been showed that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the response strategies construction are characteristic of a pollutionist approach. This approach led to envision the question of climate change as a classic pollution and environment issue. As a result, this approach has generated a double bias to the disadvantage of adaptation compared to mitigation policies: adaptation has been confined in a secondary and marginal role in climate policies structuring, and with an inoperative conceptual and methodological framework for its implementation. The thesis proposes a deconstruction of this climate change conceptualization. Moreover, the major limits that characterize mitigation policies call into question the predominance given to them in climate policies construction. The 'pollutionist' approach deconstruction allows at first to show that adaptation policies definition and operationalization need to go beyond (i) the standard analytic framework of climate policies and, (ii) the climate change conceptualization as a classic pollution and environment management issue. The thesis then argues that adaptation has to be integrated in development promoting policies, which means that adaptation needs to be conceptualized no longer as an ad hoc management of pollution effects issue, but as a development issue. Whether in the proper context of adaptation policies, or more largely of climate policies, the thesis leaves open the questions of the viability, but also of the organization and financing modalities, of a climate regime which fits within development promoting. (author)

  13. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

  14. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  15. Climate change adaptation: policy and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, Amanda H.; Brunner, Ronald D.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Worldwide, the threefold increase in the incidence of extreme weather events since 1960 was been accompanied by a ninefold increase in damages, reaching a peak of US$219 billion in 2005 due to the impacts of Hurricane Katrina. There is strong evidence that the increases in extremes, particularly heatwave and flood, are related to climate change. Adaptive governance presents an opportunity to factor the global problem into many simpler local problems to be addressed in parallel. We propose opening up the established frame, based on insights from field testing the principles of adaptive governance and independently corroborated by other research. First, in terms of science, we propose more intensive research centred on case studies of local communities and extreme events, each of which is unique under a comprehensive description. Differences among them must be taken into account to understand past damages or reduce vulnerability. Second, in terms of policy, we support a procedurally-rational approach, one that accommodates inevitable uncertainties, integrates scientific and local knowledge into policies to advance the community's common interest, and relies on learning from experience. Importantly, the approach is constructed to give something back of value to the participating communities - usually information and insight on their own circumstances - in return for their time, expertise, and good will. Third, in terms of decision-making, we suggest structural changes that begin with harvesting experience from the bottom-up, to make policies that have worked anywhere on the ground available for voluntary adaptation by similar communities elsewhere, and to inform higher-level officials about local resource needs. This approach produces lessons that can be re-contextualised to inform both scientific understanding and policy action in similar contexts directly, without going through generalisations. The common interest lies in reducing the

  16. Redistribution effects of energy and climate policy: The electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirth, Lion; Ueckerdt, Falko

    2013-01-01

    Energy and climate policies are usually seen as measures to internalize externalities. However, as a side effect, the introduction of these policies redistributes wealth between consumers and producers, and within these groups. While redistribution is seldom the focus of the academic literature in energy economics, it plays a central role in public debates and policy decisions. This paper compares the distributional effects of two major electricity policies: support schemes for renewable energy sources, and CO 2 pricing. We find that the redistribution effects of both policies are large, and they work in opposed directions. While renewables support transfers wealth from producers to consumers, carbon pricing does the opposite. More specifically, we show that moderate amounts of wind subsidies can increase consumer surplus, even if consumers bear the subsidy costs. CO 2 pricing, in contrast, increases aggregated producer surplus, even without free allocation of emission allowances; however, not all types of producers benefit. These findings are derived from an analytical model of electricity markets, and a calibrated numerical model of Northwestern Europe. Our findings imply that if policy makers want to avoid large redistribution they might prefer a mix of policies, even if CO 2 pricing alone is the first-best climate policy in terms of allocative efficiency. -- Graphical abstract: Display Omitted -- Highlights: •CO 2 pricing and renewables support have strikingly different impacts on rents. •Carbon pricing increases producer surplus and decreases consumer surplus. •Renewable support schemes (portfolio standards, feed-in tariffs) do the opposite. •We model these impacts theoretically and quantify them for Europe. •Redistribution of wealth is found to be significant in size

  17. The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sassi, O.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

  18. Energy policy after 2020 : Economic arguments to pursue energy policy for non-climate related reasons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocsis, V.; Koutstaal, P.; Tieben, B.; van Hout, M.; Hof, B.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigates the contribution of sustainable energy policy and energy saving policy to the public goals of energy policy in the Netherlands. Not surprisingly current discussion about sustainable energy policy focus on the contribution of energy policy to the goals of climate policy,

  19. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  20. Climate change policies in the OECD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staahle, C.

    1993-01-01

    The author focuses on the United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED), held in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, and on carbon taxation. At the UNCED the Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed by 154 countries. This convention is intended to guide policy makers, and takes into account the great differences that exist between countries with regard to their ability to cater and pay for greenhouse gas emission reductions. It is pointed out that since 1985 the share of CO 2 emissions from non-OECD countries has exceeded that of OECD countries. An overview is given of stated OECD targets on CO 2 emission reductions. The global impact of reductions in OECD countries alone will be limited: if all targets are met, global emissions will be growing with 19% in the coming ten years, compared to 22% in a 'business-as-usual' scenario. It was noted that only very few OECD countries have developed action plans or implemented carbon taxes that could make their targets attainable. Details were given on carbon taxes now in place. It is concluded that no progress will be made if developing countries are not included in climate change policies. Also much work remains to be done in developed countries to meet emission reduction or stabilization targets. 3 figs., 4 tabs

  1. The determination of optimal climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaheim, Asbjoern

    2010-01-01

    Analyses of the costs and benefits of climate policy, such as the Stern Review, evaluate alternative strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by requiring that the cost of emission cuts in each and every year has to be covered by the associated value of avoided damage, discounted by a an exogenously chosen rate. An alternative is to optimize abatement programmes towards a stationary state, where the concentrations of greenhouse gases are stabilized and shadow prices, including the rate of discount, are determined endogenously. This paper examines the properties of optimized stabilization. It turns out that the implications for the evaluation of climate policy are substantial if compared with evaluations of the present value of costs and benefits based on exogenously chosen shadow prices. Comparisons of discounted costs and benefits tend to exaggerate the importance of the choice of discount rate, while ignoring the importance of future abatement costs, which turns out to be essential for the optimal abatement path. Numerical examples suggest that early action may be more beneficial than indicated by comparisons of costs and benefits discounted by a rate chosen on the basis of current observations. (author)

  2. Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrontisi, Zoi; Luderer, Gunnar; Saveyn, Bert; Keramidas, Kimon; Reis Lara, Aleluia; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bertram, Christoph; Sytze de Boer, Harmen; Drouet, Laurent; Fragkiadakis, Kostas; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Guivarch, Celine; Kitous, Alban; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Broin, Eoin Ó.; Paroussos, Leonidas; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2018-04-01

    The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO2eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO2 emission reductions in all scenarios, primarily through high penetration of renewables and energy efficiency improvements. In combination with an increased electrification of final energy demand, low-carbon power supply is the main short-term abatement option. We find that the global macroeconomic cost of mitigation efforts does not reduce the 2020–2030 annual GDP growth rates in any model more than 0.1 percentage points in the INDC or 0.3 and 0.5 in the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively even without accounting for potential co-benefits and avoided climate damages. Accordingly, the median GDP reductions across all models in 2030 are 0.4%, 1.2% and 3.3% of reference GDP for each respective scenario. Costs go up with increasing mitigation efforts but a fragmented action, as implied by the INDCs, results in higher costs per unit of abated emissions. On a regional level, the cost distribution is different across scenarios while fossil fuel exporters see the highest GDP reductions in all INDC, 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios.

  3. Informing climate policy given incommensurable benefits estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.

    2003-01-01

    Underlying individual positions in debates over climate policy are assessments of benefit and costs - sometimes explicit, but more often implicit. What should we be willing to pay in the near term to reduce human emissions, given our understanding of the value of climate impacts avoided? What actions are justified now to ease adaptation to change that may come in any event? Such assessments may reflect the viewpoint of one nation, a group like Annex B, or the sum of all nations. They may incorporate uncertainty in different ways, and include different assumptions about future behavior as it influences the marginal benefit of action today. But, however done, any recommendation of a limit on human influence in the long term, or of the level of current effort, implies a weighing-up of the benefits expected, for comparison with the costs to be borne. An ability to communicate about perceived benefits thus is essential for authorities seeking a common response to the threat of human-caused change. They need some shared conception of what is at stake in the choice of one level of effort or another, and a common terminology for incorporating these considerations into international negotiations and domestic decision-making. The frustration of OECD governments with the current state of benefit information is revealed in the ambitious set of objectives set for this benefits project (OECD, 2002). They seek recommendations on how to develop a framework to assess not only the costs but the benefits of climate strategies, to improve the accounting for benefits to facilitate goal-setting for international policies. Besides this focus on global benefits, the OECD also looks for results that are relevant to national policy-making and to the development of adaptation strategies. Particular attention is asked to problems of accounting for non-market benefits, along with the intersection of climate policy with developing country issues. It is appropriate that the OECD seeks a

  4. Animating climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    DaPonte, John S.; Sadowski, Thomas; Thomas, Paul

    2006-05-01

    This paper describes a collaborative project conducted by the Computer Science Department at Southern Connecticut State University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS). Animations of output from a climate simulation math model used at GISS to predict rainfall and circulation have been produced for West Africa from June to September 2002. These early results have assisted scientists at GISS in evaluating the accuracy of the RM3 climate model when compared to similar results obtained from satellite imagery. The results presented below will be refined to better meet the needs of GISS scientists and will be expanded to cover other geographic regions for a variety of time frames.

  5. Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

    2008-01-01

    This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

  6. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahn, Olivier; Edwards, Neil R.; Knutti, Reto; Stocker, Thomas F.

    2011-01-01

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. - Research Highlights: → Preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction. → This could be achieved through strong changes in the energy mix. → Similar results would apply to any climate system tipping points.

  7. Climate policy through changing consumption choices: Options and obstacles for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hertwich, E.G.

    2014-01-01

    While national climate policy can address countries’ production or consumption, climate mitigation via changes in consumption has previously received relatively little attention in climate policy literature. In the absence of an effective international climate policy, the focus on consumption is

  8. What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    House, Joanna I; Knorr, Wolfgang; Cornell, Sarah E; Prentice, I Colin; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M; Harris, Glen R; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A

    2008-01-01

    Global policy targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions are being negotiated. The amount of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is controlled by carbon cycle processes in the ocean and on land. These processes are themselves affected by climate. The resulting 'climate-carbon cycle feedback' has recently been quantified, but the policy implications have not. Using a scheme to emulate the range of state-of-the-art model results for climate feedback strength, including the modelled range of climate sensitivity and other key uncertainties, we analyse recent global targets. The G8 target of a 50% cut in emissions by 2050 leaves CO 2 concentrations rising rapidly, approaching 1000 ppm by 2300. The Stern Review's proposed 25% cut in emissions by 2050, continuing to an 80% cut, does in fact approach stabilization of CO 2 concentration on a policy-relevant (century) timescale, with most models projecting concentrations between 500 and 600 ppm by 2100. However concentrations continue to rise gradually. Long-term stabilization at 550 ppm CO 2 requires cuts in emissions of 81 to 90% by 2300, and more beyond as a portion of the CO 2 emitted persists for centuries to millennia. Reductions of other greenhouse gases cannot compensate for the long-term effects of emitting CO 2 .

  9. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Klaus [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Robinson, Alexander [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Bradford, David F [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Oppenheimer, Michael [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO{sub 2} emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO{sub 2} emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO{sub 2} abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  10. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Klaus [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Robinson, Alexander [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Bradford, David F [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Oppenheimer, Michael [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO{sub 2} emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO{sub 2} emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO{sub 2} abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  11. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination—the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  12. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO 2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO 2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO 2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO 2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination-the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change

  13. What are the costs of Scotland's climate and renewable policies?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anandarajah, Gabrial; McDowall, Will

    2012-01-01

    The UK government has established ambitious policies to address climate change and promote renewable energy, and has set targets both for reducing carbon emissions and for deploying renewables. Scotland, a constituent nation of the UK, has also set its own targets for climate change mitigation and renewable electricity. This paper analyses the energy, economic and environmental implications of carbon and renewable electricity targets in Scotland and the UK using a newly developed two-region UK MARKAL energy system model, where Scotland (SCT) and rest of the UK (RUK) are the two regions. The paper shows that meeting Scotland's carbon targets does not require additional decarbonisation effort if the UK meets its own targets at least cost; and that Scotland's renewable energy ambitions do imply additional costs above the least cost path to the meeting the UK's obligations under the EU renewable energy directive. Meeting Scottish renewable electricity targets diverts investment and deployment in renewables from rest of the UK to Scotland. In addition to increased energy system cost, Scottish renewable electricity targets may also require early investment in new electricity transmission capacity between Scotland and rest of the UK. - Highlights: ► Scottish climate policy is less stringent than UK policy. ► Scottish targets would complement UK targets if UK policies fail to meet UK targets. ► The possible conclusion here is that Scottish carbon targets are unnecessary. ► Scottish renewable policy is more stringent than UK policy. ► As expected, this increased stringency leads to additional costs.

  14. Efficient Climate Policy with Internationally Mobile Firms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maestad, O.

    2001-01-01

    A major concern in the design of an incomplete climate agreement is that firms that use fossil fuels intensively may respond to emission regulations by relocating their plants from cooperating to non-cooperating countries. This paper analyses how the cooperating countries might deal with the issue of firm delocation through emission taxes, trade provisions and a localisation subsidy to mobile firms. It is shown that firms should not be induced to stay in the cooperating countries by lowering emission taxes below the Pigouvian tax rate. Incentives to stay should be given partly through trade provisions and partly through a localisation subsidy. A second best solution without localisation subsidies is also discussed. In that case, the efficient emission tax is lower than the Pigouvian tax rate. Finally, the paper discusses the implications of the first best and the second best policy regimes for the pattern of firm localisation. 19 refs

  15. Land-use change and global climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitz, V.

    2004-03-01

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  16. Canada's climate change policy in context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, S.

    2000-10-01

    Climate change has a wide range of implications for the health, well-being, and economic prospects for Canadians, and for the ecological systems that sustain life on this planet. The overwhelming scientific opinion, world leaders and even a growing number of corporate leaders now agree that the Earth is undergoing a significant and unusual warming period as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There is also wide agreement that much of this build-up is anthropogenic, and that a global effort is required to slow this trend. Because climate change is a global problem, it requires global solutions by way of reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, the Kyoto Agreement of 1997 constitutes a major breakthrough, even though it takes only a small step towards towards altering the human impact on global climate. Although some 80 states, plus the European Union signed the Kyoto Protocol, it remains unclear when it will come into force because the majority of states have failed to ratify it, pending the resolution of a variety of technical and operational details. Canada is the second highest emitter of greenhouse gases (16 tonnes per capita, compared to world average of 3.6 tonnes per capita). This, combined with Canada's foreign policy goals of playing a leading role in taking action and preserving its reputation as an honest broker, makes the challenge of meeting Canada's Kyoto commitments especially pressing. The purpose of this paper is to explain Canada's climate change policy in the context of these international and domestic pressures. The paper identifies the main climate change-related policy challenges, international responses to date and the constraints and opportunities open to Canada in the light of its economy, its federalist political structure, and place in the world as a middle power, as well as its geographic situation, natural resources and environmental endowment. There is a detailed discussion of the Kyoto

  17. Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques [Institut Francais des Relations Internationales - Ifri, 27 rue de la Procession, 75740 Paris Cedex 15 (France); Andrews-Speed, Philip [Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland (United Kingdom); Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen [China Institute of International Studies (China)

    2011-06-15

    's energy sector. Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

  18. Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen

    2011-06-01

    . Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

  19. The Role of Sustainable Investment in Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Schütze

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals requires a fundamental socio-economic transformation accompanied by substantial investment in low-carbon infrastructure. Such a sustainability transition represents a non-marginal change, driven by behavioral factors and systemic interactions. However, typical economic models used to assess a sustainability transition focus on marginal changes around a local optimum, which—by construction—lead to negative effects. Thus, these models do not allow evaluating a sustainability transition that might have substantial positive effects. This paper examines which mechanisms need to be included in a standard computable general equilibrium model to overcome these limitations and to give a more comprehensive view of the effects of climate change mitigation. Simulation results show that, given an ambitious greenhouse gas emission constraint and a price of carbon, positive economic effects are possible if (1 technical progress results (partly endogenously from the model and (2 a policy intervention triggering an increase of investment is introduced. Additionally, if (3 the investment behavior of firms is influenced by their sales expectations, the effects are amplified. The results provide suggestions for policy-makers, because the outcome indicates that investment-oriented climate policies can lead to more desirable outcomes in economic, social and environmental terms.

  20. Climate policies between carbon prices, oil rents and urban dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waisman, H.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis investigates the effects of constraints imposed on economic interactions by limitations due to natural resources, among which oil and urban land play a crucial role in the context of climate change. These dimensions, often neglected in existing analyses, have an ambiguous effect since they suggest both the risk of enhanced costs if carbon limitations reinforce the sub-optimalities caused by pre-existing constraints, but also, conversely, the possibility of co-benefits if the climate policy helps to correct some pre-existing imperfections of socio-economic trajectories. To investigate this issue, an innovative modeling framework of the energy-economy interactions is elaborated that embarks the specificities of the deployment of oil production capacities and the issues related to the spatial organization in urban areas. We demonstrate that, beyond the carbon price, the costs of climate policy essentially depend on the sequencing of complementary measures, with a crucial role of spatial policy designed to control transport-related emissions through mobility. (author)

  1. Interaction of the EU emissions Trading Directive with climate policy instrument in the Netherlands. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sijm, J.P.M.

    2003-11-01

    This policy brief presents an overview of the implications of the proposed EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for some selected energy and climate policy instruments in the Netherlands. It summarises the results of research that has been conducted by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) as part of the EU-funded project Interaction in EU Climate Policy

  2. Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

    2015-10-01

    The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

  3. The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

  4. Energy policy design and China’s local climate governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ting, Guan; Delman, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    This study probes into climate policy design at city level in China, with Hangzhou’s energy efficiency and renewable energy policies between 2005 and 2014 as a case. The study applies a political action arena approach to accentuate the importance of different normative preferences behind climate...

  5. Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Gowdy

    2007-01-01

    The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are "irrational" according to the...

  6. Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

  7. From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Agriculture. Research on climate change and its impact on the ... Outputs. Journal articles. Factors affecting households vulnerability to climate change in Swaziland : a case of Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme (ADP). Download PDF ...

  8. Policy challenges for wildlife management in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark L. Shaffer

    2014-01-01

    Try as it might, wildlife management cannot make wild living things adapt to climate change. Management can, however, make adaptation more or less likely. Given that policy is a rule set for action, policy will play a critical role in society’s efforts to help wildlife cope with the challenge of climate change. To be effective, policy must provide clear goals and be...

  9. Making the Climate Count: Climate Policy Integration and Coherence in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Kivimaa, Paula; Mickwitz, Per

    2009-01-01

    Tackling climate change in Finland and other industrialised countries requires major changes in production processes and consumption patterns. These changes will not take place unless climate change becomes a crucial factor in general and sector-specific policy-making. In this report climate policy integration in Finland is studied at different levels of policy-making: at the national level, regionally in Kymenlakso and the Metropolitan Area, as well as in the city of Helsinki and the town of...

  10. ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessels, J.R.; Bakker, S.J.A.

    2005-05-01

    Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

  11. A Multi-Model Study of Energy Supply Investments in Latin America under Climate Control Policy Energy Economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kober, T.; Falzon, J.; van der Zwaan, B.; Calvin, K.; Kanudia, A.; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M.

    In this paper we investigate energy supply investment requirements in Latin America until 2050 through a multi-model approach as jointly applied in the CLIMACAP-LAMP research project. We compare a business-as-usual scenario needed to satisfy anticipated future energy demand with a set of scenarios

  12. Climate-agriculture interactions and needs for policy making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, J. G.

    2010-12-01

    Research exploring climate change interactions with agriculture has evolved from simplistic “delta T” simulation experiments with crop models to work highlighting the importance of climate variability and extreme events, which characterized the negative impacts possible if no adaptation occurred. There soon followed consideration of socioeconomic factors allowing for adaptive strategies that are likely to mitigate the worst case outcomes originally projected. At the same time, improved understanding of biophysical feedbacks has led to a greater recognition of the role that agriculture plays in modifying climate, with a great deal of attention recently paid to strategies to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural systems. Advances in models of biogeochemical cycling applied to agronomic systems have allowed for new insights into greenhouse gas emissions and sinks associated with current, conventional farming systems. Yet this work is still relatively simplistic in that it seldom addresses interactions between climate dynamics, adoption of mitigation strategies, and feedbacks to the climate system and the surrounding environment. In order for agricultural policy to be developed that provides incentives for appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies over the next 50 years, a systems approach needs to be utilized that addresses feedbacks and interactions at field, farm and regional scales in a broader environmental context. Interactions between carbon and climate constraints on the one hand, and environmental impacts related to water, nutrient runoff, and pest control all imply a transformation of farming practices that is as of yet not well defined. Little attention has been paid to studying the implications of “alternative” farming strategies such as organic systems, intensive rotational grazing of livestock, or increases in the perennial component of farmscapes, all of which may be necessary responses to energy and other environmental constraints

  13. Preparing the Way for New Policy Regarding Adaptation of US Electricity Infrastructure to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, Melissa R [ORNL

    2013-10-01

    The following pages represent the status of policy regarding adaptation of the electric grid to climate change and proposed directions for new policy development. While strides are being made to understand the current climate and to predict hazards it may present to human systems, both the science and the policy remain at present in an analytical state. The policy proposed in this document involves first continued computational modeling of outcomes which will produce a portfolio of options to be considered in light of specific region-related risks. It is proposed that the modeling continue not only until reasonable policy at various levels of jurisdiction can be derived from its outcome but also on a continuing basis so that as improvements in the understanding of the state and trajectory of climate science along with advancements in technology arise, they can be incorporated into an appropriate and evolving policy.

  14. Air Pollution Policy in Europe. Quantifying the Interaction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bollen, J. [CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Den Haag (Netherlands); Brink, C. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2012-10-15

    In this study the Computable General Equilibrium Model called WorldScan is used to analyse interactions between European air pollution policies and policies aimed at addressing climate change. WorldScan incorporates the emissions of both greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, NH3 and PM2.5). WorldScan has been extended with equations that enable the simulation of end-of-pipe measures that remove pollutants without affecting the emission-producing activity itself. Air pollution policy will depend on end-of-pipe controls for not more than 50%, thus also at least 50% of the required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy through efficiency improvements, fuel switching and other structural changes in the economy. Greenhouse gas emissions thereby decrease which renders climate change policies less costly. Our results show that carbon prices will fall, but not more than 33%, although they could drop to zero when the EU agrees on a more stringent air pollution policy.

  15. Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

  16. Climate policy. The dirt, the country and the world. Part 1. Solo climate policy is damaging symbol politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, P.

    2008-01-01

    This article assumes that the objective of climate policy is to limit climate change. The alternative goal of security of supply was not considered. Some measures can be defended in view of both objectives. This is for example the case with energy saving. It is evident that the climate problem becomes increasingly urgent. If the Netherlands or Europe choose individual climate policy, some 'leakage effects' are unavoidable. Such symbol politics harm the economy, whereas the climate does not benefit. On a national and European scale all means must be put to use to bring global collaboration closer at the shortest possible term. [mk] [nl

  17. Senegal's national policy to combat climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dia Toure, F.

    2007-01-01

    Senegal's participation in the Earth Summit meeting in Rio in 1992 demonstrated its national political stand towards environmental causes. An initiative was taken to educate the population on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in relation to different sectors, including the energy sector, transportation, agriculture, forestry and waste management. Later, a group of negotiators followed the works of subsidiary bodies of the Kyoto Agreement. As a non-Annex 1 developing country, Senegal is not required to reduce GHG emissions as are Annex 1 countries. Therefore, Senegal has used judicial tools to benefit from the transfer of clean technologies. The implementation of Senegal's national adaptation action plan has involved global organizations, sectorial studies, public consultations, prioritization and project formulation. The action plan addresses concerns such as water resources, variation in precipitation, drought, agriculture and its vulnerability, and negative impacts due to climate change. The technical solutions include the promotion of agroforestry technologies; crop diversification; water conservation; community wood use; and, prevention of bush fires. Since several geographical regions within Senegal are also affected by global warming, policies are being formulated to protect humid zones and help in the fight against invasive species. Senegal imports much of its energy sources. Households rely on wood and coal for energy. New measures are being adapted and new sustainable technologies are being proposed for fireplaces, better recycling, and better landfill sites. 8 figs

  18. National Energy Policy and Climate Change Prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruggink, J.J.C.; Mallant, R.K.A.M.; Van der Wart, R.; Muradin-Szweykowska, M.

    1992-06-01

    Climate change prevention has become one of the major concerns of environmental policy in the Netherlands. The Dutch government has set definite targets for CO 2 emissions in the coming decade. These targets and the measures necessary to reach them are described in the paper. In addition, the technical feasibility of realizing the Toronto objective of a 20% reduction in CO 2 emissions by the year 2005 in the Netherlands is discussed. It appears that energy conservation options are most crucial for the short-term, but that eventually new supply technologies are needed to obtain drastic reductions in the long term. The increased need for research and development efforts has led to two innovative research programmes on sustainable energy development in the Netherlands. The ENGINE (ENergy Generation In the Natural Environment) programme is implemented by the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and addresses the specific problems associated with the three major components of supply: cleanliness in the case of fossil fuels, safety in the case of nuclear energy, and costs in the case of renewable sources. The complementary SYRENE (SYstem integration of Renewable ENergy and End use) is implemented by the Netherlands Agency for Energy and Environment (NOVEM) and addresses the system aspects of sustainable energy development. The objectives and approaches of these two programmes are briefly presented. 1 fig., 1 tab., 4 refs

  19. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

  20. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

  1. Climate Change and Climate Policy: An Inconvenient Issue, in the Low Countries Too

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leroy, P.

    2008-01-01

    Climate policy in Belgium and the Netherlands exhibits all the dilemmas of policy-making at the present juncture: the policy has to be global, but the political system remains largely national, and therefore operates on a relatively ineffective scale. The policy has to be long-term, but politicians

  2. Energy policy for integrating the building environmental performance model of an air conditioned building in a subtropical climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mui, K.W.

    2006-01-01

    For an air conditioned building, the major electricity consumption is by the heating, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. As energy saving strategies may be in conflict with the criteria of indoor air quality and thermal comfort, a concept of the building environmental performance model (BEPM) has been developed to optimize energy consumption in HVAC systems without any deterioration of the indoor air quality and thermal comfort. The BEPM is divided into two main modules: the adaptive comfort temperature (ACT) module and the new demand control ventilation (nDCV) module. This study aims to enhance and prompt the conventional operation of the air side systems by incorporating temperature reset with the adaptive comfort temperature control and the new demand control ventilation system in high rise buildings in Hong Kong. A new example weather year (1991) was established as a reference to compute the energy use of HVAC systems in buildings in order to obtain more representative data for predicting annual energy consumption. A survey of 165 Hong Kong office buildings was conducted and it provided valuable information on the existing HVAC design values in different grades of private commercial buildings in Hong Kong. It was found that the actual measured values of indoor temperature were lower than the design ones. Furthermore, with the new example weather year and the integration of the BEPM into Grade A private office buildings in Hong Kong, the total energy saving of the air conditioning systems was calculated (i.e. a saving of HK$122 million in electrical consumption per year) while the thermal comfort for the occupants was also maintained

  3. Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Longden, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    With a focus on the interaction between long-term climate targets and personal transport we review the electrification of light duty vehicles (LDVs) within a model that utilizes a learning-by-researching structure. By modeling the demand of vehicles, the use of fuels and emissions implied, the model solves for the optimum RD and D investments that decrease the cost of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. A range of technology and climate policy scenarios provide long term projections of vehicle use that highlight the potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. We find that even when the capital cost of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) remains higher than that of traditional combustion engine alternatives, EDVs are likely to play a key role in the decarbonisation implied by stringent climate policy. Limited innovation in batteries results in notable increases in policy costs consistent with a two degree climate policy target. - Highlights: • Significant increase in vehicles across regions in the medium to long term future. • Climate policy costs are sensitive to a lack of electric drive vehicles (EDVs). • Achieving 450ppm with no change in battery costs has a policy cost that is 2.86 percentage points higher than the base 450ppm scenario. • Climate policy hastens the introduction of electrified vehicles, however EDVs do not become the dominant vehicle of choice before the middle of the century

  4. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leggett, Jane A

    2007-01-01

    .... During the 20th Century, some areas became wetter while others experienced more drought. Most climate scientists conclude that humans have induced a large part of the climate change since the 1970s...

  5. Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haug Constanze

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations.

  6. Policy Coherence and Interplay between Climate Change Adaptation Policies and the Forestry Sector in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranabhat, Sunita; Ghate, Rucha; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Tankha, Sunil

    2018-06-01

    Least Developed Countries are likely to be hit the hardest by climate change and need focused efforts towards adaptation. Nepal recognizes that it needs to integrate climate change adaptation into various policies, but limited understanding of how to make these policies coherent is among the factors that hinder effective adaptation action. This can lead to wasted resources and lost opportunities. This paper applies concepts from policy coherence for development frameworks and policy content analysis to examine coherence in Nepal's climate and forest policies—and discusses the factors hindering effective implementation. The policies are analyzed at the horizontal/external level at three layers—motivation, measures, and planned implementation process. The paper finds that policies are more consistent on motivation level and adaptation measures, but are less coherent on implementation. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is more explicit in identifying institutions, organizations, roles and responsibilities, resource allocation (financial), and a monitoring and evaluation plan for climate change adaptation while other policies such as Climate Change Policy 2011, National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2014-2020, Forest Policy 2015, and Forest Sector Strategy 2016 have critical gaps in this area. This paper conclude that formulation of a policy, articulating targets, and mobilizing financial resources are in themselves not sufficient to effectively address climate change adaptation. Policy-based legislation is required, together with development of a supportive collaborative multi-stakeholder approach at different levels of governance, backed up by effective, collaborative monitoring and enforcement.

  7. Competitiveness and carbon leakages in industry under asymmetric climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demailly, D.

    2008-02-01

    This research aims at studying how to predict competitiveness loss for an industry submitted to an asymmetric carbon constraint, and carbon leakages, whether high losses and important leakages might be feared, and which policies can be used to mitigate these losses and escapes. The author analyses and comments the content of four articles dealing with: the impact on competitiveness, revenue distribution and economic efficiency of a change in the allocation rules for EU greenhouse gas allowances; the relationship between allocation of CO 2 allowances and competitiveness in the case of the European iron and steel industry; CO 2 abatement, competitiveness and leakage in the European cement industry under EU ETS; and leakage from climate policies and border tax adjustment (lessons from a geographic model of the cement industry). Then, the author combines several approaches to study the cement and steel industries

  8. Climate Change and Public Health Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A; Vargo, Jason; Hoverter, Sara Pollock

    2017-03-01

    Climate change poses real and immediate impacts to the public health of populations around the globe. Adverse impacts are expected to continue throughout the century. Emphasizing co-benefits of climate action for health, combining adaptation and mitigation efforts, and increasing interagency coordination can effectively address both public health and climate change challenges.

  9. Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawala, S.; Paris, R.

    2005-03-01

    Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are generally more dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, and because they are less able to cope with the impacts of climate change. How development occurs has implications, in turn, for climate change and for the vulnerability of societies to its impacts. Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of economic policies, development projects, and international aid efforts. Considerable analytical work has been done on how development can be made climate-friendly in terms of helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change, although implementation remains a challenge. Much less attention has been paid to how development can be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In a narrow engineering sense, this could involve taking climate changes into account in the siting and design of bridges and other infrastructure. At a policy level, it could involve considering the implications of climate change on a variety of development activities including poverty reduction, sectoral development, and natural resource management. Bridging the gap between the climate change adaptation and development communities, however, is not easy. The two communities have different priorities, often operate on different time and space scales, and do not necessarily 'speak the same language'. Specific information is therefore needed on the significance of climate change for development activities along with operational guidance on how best to adapt to its impacts, within the context of other pressing social priorities. This Policy Brief looks at how far current development policies and programmes are taking climate change risks into account, as well as at ways to improve the 'mainstreaming' of adaptation to climate change in development planning and assistance

  10. Effectiveness of climate policy in the built environment. Application of policy theory in the evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joosen, S.; Harmelink, M.; Blok, K.

    2004-01-01

    Due to climate policy in the sectors households and services in the Netherlands the annual emission of CO2 has been reduced by 2-6 million tons in 7 years. Without the climate policy the CO2 emission in these sectors would have been 7% higher [nl

  11. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  12. Technology policy for climate change mitigation: a transatlantic perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This workshop was the second climate policy conference jointly organized by RFF and IFRI in Paris. (The first one, ''How to Make Progress Post-Kyoto?'', was held on March 19, 2003). This Summary Paper is divided into two parts: The first part presents short summaries of all the presentations at the workshop (rationale and past experience in technology policies, the challenges and policy responses of the climate friendly technologies). The second part, which is an edited version of the closing remarks by Pierre Noel (Ifri), highlights some of the policy lessons that emerged from the workshop. (A.L.B.)

  13. Technology policy for climate change mitigation: a transatlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This workshop was the second climate policy conference jointly organized by RFF and IFRI in Paris. (The first one, ''How to Make Progress Post-Kyoto?'', was held on March 19, 2003). This Summary Paper is divided into two parts: The first part presents short summaries of all the presentations at the workshop (rationale and past experience in technology policies, the challenges and policy responses of the climate friendly technologies). The second part, which is an edited version of the closing remarks by Pierre Noel (Ifri), highlights some of the policy lessons that emerged from the workshop. (A.L.B.)

  14. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S.; Baranzini, A.; Germond-Duret, C.; Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A.; Rafaj, P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  15. Emissions trading for climate policy - US and European perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernd Hansjuergens (ed.) [Martin Luther-Universitaet Halle-Wittenburg (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    The 1997 Kyoto Conference introduced emissions trading as a new policy instrument for climate protection. Bringing together scholars in the fields of economics, political science and law, this book provides a description, analysis and evaluation of different aspects of emissions trading as an instrument to control greenhouse gases. The authors analyse theoretical aspects of regulatory instruments for climate policy, provide an overview of US experience with market-based instruments, draw lessons from existing trading schemes for the control of greenhouse gases, and discuss options for emissions trading in climate policy. They also highlight the background of climate policy and instrument choice in the US and Europe and of the emerging new systems in Europe, particularly the new EU's directive for a CO{sub 2} emissions trading system. 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  16. Aligning California's Transportation Funding with Its Climate Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    California has established itself as a leader in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. At the same time, the state has not reflected its ambitious policies for GHG reduction and climate action in its practices for allo...

  17. The efficiency cost of protective measures in climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Böhringer, Christoph; Garcia-Muros, Xaquin; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Arto, Iñaki

    2017-01-01

    Despite recent achievements towards a global climate agreement, climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remains quite heterogeneous across countries. Energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries in industrialized countries are concerned on stringent domestic emission pricing that puts them at a competitive disadvantage against producers of similar goods in other countries with more lenient emission regulation. This paper focuses on climate policy design in the United States of America (US) and compares the economic implications of four alternative protective measures for US EITE industries: (i) output-based rebates, (ii) exemptions from emission pricing, (iii) energy intensity standards, and (iv) carbon intensity standards. Using a large-scale computable general equilibrium model we quantify how these protective measures affect competitiveness of US EITE industries. We find that protective measures can improve common trade-related competitiveness indicators such as revealed comparative advantage or relative world trade shares but at the same time may lead to a decline in the output value for EITE industries because of negative income effects. The economy-wide cost of emission abatement under protective measures increase as compared to uniform emission pricing stand-alone such that the gains of protective measures for EITE exports may be more than compensated through losses in domestic EITE demand. - Highlights: • We assess impacts for US emission-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) industries. • EITE impacts are quantified via competitiveness metrics and production output. • Protective measures reduce adverse competitiveness impacts but can depress output. • Output losses are due to negative income effects that reduce domestic EITE demand. • Protective measures run the risk of making US climate policy much more costly.

  18. Co-creation of climate change mitigation policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, Jens Villiam

    The focus of this paper is on the places where citizens and public authorities meet – possible involving other stakeholders as well – to discuss, formulate and implement climate change mitigation policies at the local level. Through looking at a number of concrete cases stemming from the CIDEA re...... mitigation policies should be aimed at finding ways to support citizen initiated initiatives to a greater extent than is currently the case. Keywords: climate change mitigation, co-creation, behaviour, communities, citizen driven innovation....

  19. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China: An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hübler, Michael; Löschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi‐region, multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy‐ induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business‐as‐usual (BAU) in the same yea...

  20. Climate change mitigation policy paradigms — national objectives and alignments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Garg, Amit; Christensen, John M.

    2014-01-01

    for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options......, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have...... been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together...

  1. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  2. Mitigation and Adaptation within a Climate Policy Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term ques...

  3. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  4. The Governance of Climate Change Adaptation Through Urban Policy Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chu, E.K.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is increasingly posing risks to infrastructure and public services in cities across the global South. Building on ideas of policy experimentation at the nexus of institutional and transition theories, this paper assesses six climate change adaptation experiments across the cities of

  5. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay

  6. Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja

    2015-01-01

    This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...

  7. Local climate change policy in the United Kingdom and Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Bulkeley, Harriet; Kern, Kristine

    2004-01-01

    "For over a decade climate change has been considered one of the most significant political issues facing the international community. In order to address this challenge, attention needs to be focused not only at the international level of treaties and conventions, but also on how climate protection policy is taking shape at the local level. Germany and the UK have been leading countries for international action on climate change. However, the reductions in domestic emissions of greenhouse ga...

  8. Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maisonnave, Hélène; Pycroft, Jonathan; Saveyn, Bert; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

    2012-01-01

    The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyse the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy implies a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does imply an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP (making a total loss of 2.5% of GDP), but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

  9. Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menkveld, M.; Burger, H.; Kaal, M.B.T.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

    2001-10-01

    forces local governments to provide more explanation. The risk exists that more attention will be paid to the short-term quality of life issues instead of the long-term climate problems. In order to reinforce contributions from local governments to climate policy, a systematic integrative approach is needed. The ideal model focuses on formulating a so-called climate care system. Similar to quality and environment care systems, a systematic introduction of a (climate) interest in a broad field of activities and decisions are involved. We distinguish some necessary basic steps and elements. 138 refs

  10. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  11. Chinese and Russian Policies on Climate Change: Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    crop productivity in China by 2030 as a result of climate change, and a decline of up to 37 percent in rice, maize , and wheat yields after 2050...against global warming. Comparing and contrasting China’s and Russia’s climate change policies and programs may also help to identify gaps in...adequate measures to adapt agriculture to climate change, the annual economic loss from a decrease in climate-determined crop yield in Russia is

  12. Power Generation Technology Choice in the Presence of Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pettersson, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    The overall purpose of this thesis is to analyze power generation technology choices in the presence of climate policy. Special attention is paid to the diffusion of renewable power technologies following a carbon pricing policy, and this topic is analyzed in two self-contained papers. The overall objective of paper 1 is to analyze how future investments in the Swedish power sector can be affected by carbon pricing policies following the Kyoto Protocol. In the first part we focus on the price of carbon following the Kyoto commitments and to what extent this policy will affect the relative competitiveness of the available investment alternatives. The second part pays attention to the possible impacts of technology learning - and the resulting cost decreases - on the economics of power generation in the presence of climate policy. The first part considers the majority of power generation technologies available in Sweden, while the second part focuses solely on the competition between combined cycle natural gas plants and the cheapest renewable power alternative, wind power. Methodologically, we approach the above issues from the perspective of a power generator who considers investing in new generation capacity. This implies that we first of all assess the lifetime engineering costs of different power generation technologies in Sweden, and analyze the impact of carbon pricing on the competitive cost position of these technologies under varying rate-of-return requirements. Overall the results indicate that in general it is not certain that compliance with the Kyoto commitments implies substantial increases in renewable power sources. If, therefore, renewable power sources are favored for reasons beyond climate policy additional policy instruments will be needed. The purpose of paper 2 is to analyze the costs for reducing CO 2 emissions in the power-generating sectors in Croatia, the European part of Russia, Macedonia, Serbia and the Ukraine in 2020 by using a linear

  13. Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tompkins, Emma L.; Neil Adger, W.

    2005-01-01

    Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions

  14. Adapting fishing policies to address climate change in West Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-04-21

    Apr 21, 2011 ... ... French acronym APPECCAO) aims to integrate an improved understanding of climate change's ... The project builds on two existing regional structures: ENDA's West African Fisheries Policy Network (Reseau sur les ... policies, including those coordinated by the New Partnership for Africa's Development, ...

  15. Climate policy and nonrenewable resources : The green paradox and beyond

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pittel, Karen; van der Ploeg, Rick; Withagen, Cees

    2014-01-01

    Recent developments suggest that well-intended climate policies–including carbon taxes and subsidies for renewable energy – might not accomplish what policy makers intend. Hans-Werner Sinn has described a "green paradox," arguing that these policies could hasten global warming by encouraging owners

  16. Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flachsland, Christian; Brunner, Steffen; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Creutzig, Felix

    2011-01-01

    Current policies in the road transport sector fail to deliver consistent and efficient incentives for greenhouse gas abatement (see companion article by ). Market-based instruments such as cap-and-trade systems close this policy gap and complement traditional policies that are required where specific market failures arise. Even in presence of strong existing non-market policies, cap-and-trade delivers additional abatement and efficiency by incentivizing demand side abatement options. This paper analyzes generic design options and economic impacts of including the European road transport sector into the EU ETS. Suitable points of regulation are up- and midstream in the fuel chain to ensure effectiveness (cover all emissions and avoid double-counting), efficiency (incentivize all abatement options) and low transaction costs. Based on year 2020 marginal abatement cost curves from different models and current EU climate policy objectives we show that in contrast to conventional wisdom, road transport inclusion would not change the EU ETS allowance price. Hence, industrial carbon leakage induced by adding road transport to the EU ETS may be less important than previously estimated. - Research highlights: → We analyze the rationale, design and economic impacts of including road transportation into GHG cap-and-trade systems. → Suitable points of regulation are up- and mid-stream. → Including European road transport into the EU ETS by 2020 would not change the EU allowance price.

  17. Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randalls, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

  18. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  19. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  20. Climate policy in developing countries and conditional transfers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruebbelke, Dirk T.G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role international transfers may play in international climate policy in consideration of the policy's ancillary benefits, such as air quality improvements. Ancillary benefits are especially important in many developing countries, while climate protection benefits or primary benefits play a minor role on the political agenda of these countries. In contrast, industrialized countries have a strong interest in combating climate change. These often neglected asymmetries between the developing and industrialized world affect the impacts of transfers. Interestingly, as we will show, the cost differentials between different environmental technologies among countries are the crucial prerequisite for the functioning of a transfer scheme and not the cost differentials in the execution of climate policy. This result has been overlooked by standard pure public good approaches

  1. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  2. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  3. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  4. Climate policy in Belgium and the Flemish District

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sereno, M.

    2001-01-01

    According to the agreement of the Environment Ministers' Council of the European Union Belgium will have to reduce its overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7,5 % during the first commitment period (2008-2012) in relation to the reference year 1990. International climate change policy is implemented by Belgian federal authorities responsible for fiscal, labelling and product policies and regional authorities (Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels) responsible for energy, environmental and agricultural policies. This article discusses the important issues raised by Belgian federal and Flemish regional climate change policy. It focuses onto the Belgian national climate change plan' and the Flemish Region's policies as laid down in its regional Environmental Policy Plan. The overall context of this article is given in by the international climate change negotiations in The Hague during the sixth Conference of the Parties in execution of the United Nation's Framework on Climate Change. In conclusion of this article a brief overview of the Belgian point of view on the failed negotiations in The Hague is given. 6 refs

  5. Natural gas, uncertainty, and climate policy in the US electric power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bistline, John E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates how uncertainties related to natural gas prices and potential climate policies may influence capacity investments, utilization, and emissions in US electricity markets. Using a two-stage stochastic programming approach, model results suggest that climate policies are stronger drivers of greenhouse gas emission trajectories than new natural gas supplies. The dynamics of learning and irreversibility may give rise to an investment climate where strategic delay is optimal. Hedging strategies are shown to be sensitive to the specification of probability distributions for climate policy and natural gas prices, highlighting the important role of uncertainty quantification in future research. The paper also illustrates how this stochastic modeling framework could be used to quantify the value of limiting methane emissions from natural gas production. - Highlights: • This paper examines how uncertainty may impact natural gas in the power sector. • Uncertainties like gas prices, upstream emissions, and climate policy are modeled. • Climate policies are stronger drivers of emissions than gas supply conditions. • Lower gas prices are likely to spark greater utilization of existing capacity. • Irreversibility and uncertainty may make strategic delay optimal

  6. Beyond Bush: Environmental politics and prospects for US climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, Paul G.

    2009-01-01

    The United States was a pioneer in domestic environmental lawmaking, and it was a leader in international environmental cooperation in the final decades of the last century. During the current decade, however, it has moved away from cooperating with other states in finding new ways to protect the global environment. While its early efforts to address climate change were no worse, and often better than, other developed countries, it has fallen far behind as a number of European states and the European Union have started to implement robust policies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter recounts this evolution in US policy from environmental leader to environmental laggard. It summarizes the US climate change-related policies and diplomacy, recounting significant events during the presidential administrations of George HW Bush, Bill Clinton and George W Bush. It then extends this summary of events to assess the prospects for US climate policy in the near future

  7. Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

    2012-01-01

    At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

  8. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leggett, Jane A

    2007-01-01

    .... Although natural forces such as solar irradiance and volcanoes contribute to variability, scientists cannot explain the climate changes of the past few decades without including the effects of elevated greenhouse gas (GHG...

  9. Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

  10. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hartmann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these EU networks have on the adaptive capacity in cities. This paper uses two Dutch cities as an empirical base to evaluate the influence of two EU climate adaptation projects on both the experience of local public officials and the adaptive capacity in the respective cities. The main conclusion is that EU climate adaptation projects do not automatically lead to an increased adaptive capacity in the cities involved. This is due to the political opportunistic use of EU funding, which hampers the implementation of climate adaptation policies. Furthermore, these EU projects draw attention away from local network building focused on the development and implementation of climate adaptation policies. These factors have a negative cumulative impact on the performance of these transnational policy networks at the adaptive capacity level in the cities involved. Therefore, in order to strengthen the adaptive capacity in today’s European cities, a context-specific, integrative approach in urban planning is needed at all spatial levels. Hence, policy entrepreneurs should aim to create linkage between the issues in the transnational city network and the concerns in local politics and local networks.

  11. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    the impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate......Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system......, with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover...

  12. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

    2015-04-14

    Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

  13. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

    2015-01-01

    Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

  14. The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating

  15. African voices on climate change. Policy concerns and potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, S.

    1994-01-01

    This publication is the result of a process of building an understanding and facilitating a dialogue on the issues related to climate change, on the implications that climate change have to Africa, and on the relevance of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for the continent. Research work was carried out over a year and twelve African countries were directly engaged in this projects, contributing with the work and expertise of their specialists. A whole process of discussions was started aiming not only at identifying questions concerning the countries directly involved but at illustrating the diversity of Africa's economies and societies, and attempting to raise common issues of interest for the whole of the continent. The objective of this publication is to provide a starting point for the discussions to take place during the African Conference on Policy Options and Responses to Climate Change, 5-8 December 1994, in Nairobi. This conference is not only the culmination of 'Climate and Africa' but, most of all, it opens a forum for discussions on climate issues among African policy makers and for building African positions in relation to the Climate Convention. The ideas expressed here are drawn from the material produced in the Climate and Africa Project. Therefore, this publication does not necessarily represent the positions of the Stockholm Environment Institute or the African Center for Technology Studies in relation to Africa and the Climate Convention

  16. Climate change and deforestation: the evolution of an intersecting policy domain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buizer, I.M.; Humphreys, D.; Jong, de W.

    2014-01-01

    Forests and climate change are increasingly dealt with as interconnected policy issues. Both the potential synergies and policy conflicts between forest conservation and restoration and climate change mitigation now receive sustained and high level attention from academic, policy analysis and

  17. Municipal climate change policies. A case study for Amsterdam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schol, E.; Van den Bosch, A.; Ligthart, F.A.T.M.; Roemer, J.C.; Ruijg, G.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Dinkelman, G.H.; Kok, I.C.; De Paauw, K.F.B.

    1999-01-01

    Insight in the local policy options with respect to climate change is provided, in this case within the sphere of influence of Amsterdam local authorities. A list of new policy options for CO 2 reduction has been made with the assistance of local policy makers and representatives of interest groups. These policy options have been divided into three qualitative scenarios: Institutional Cultural Change, Technological Innovation and Least-Regrets. The environmental, economic and other effects have been described for each policy option. The three most interesting policy options have been selected by local policymakers and representatives of interest groups during a workshop. Implementation strategies have been developed for the options selected. These strategies have been discussed during a second workshop. The reduction target, stabilisation of CO 2 emissions in 2015 compared to 1993, can be reached by a combination of all the new policy options. The three selected policy options count for 40% of this total CO 2 emission reduction. Finally, a general outline on the methodology can also be applied to other cities and municipalities. For example, this methodology can be used by participants of Cities for Climate Protection, an initiative of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or the Netherlands Climate Association. 136 refs

  18. Nuclear power and post-2012 energy and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weisser, Daniel; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2008-01-01

    At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that - given the right framework conditions - some architectures, like 'cap and trade' regimes or 'policies and measures' can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility. For example, the provision of long-term commitment periods has the potential to enable better investments in existing low-carbon technologies but stifle the policy flexibility that political decision makers are often keen to retain so that they can respond more quickly to new scientific evidence or advances in clean technology development

  19. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  20. Determining energy and climate market policy using multiobjective programs with equilibrium constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Sauleh; Christensen, Adam

    2016-01-01

    Energy and climate market policy is inherently multiobjective and multilevel, in that desired choices often conflict and are made at a higher level than influenced actors. Analyzing tradeoff between reducing emissions and keeping fuel prices low, while seeking compromise among producers, traders, and consumers is the crux of the policy problem. This paper aims to address this issue by combining multiobjective optimization problems, which allow the study of tradeoff between choices, with equilibrium problems that model the networks and players over which these policies are chosen, to produce a formulation called a Multiobjective Program with Equilibrium Constraints. We apply this formulation to the United States renewable fuel market to help understand why it has been so difficult in releasing the 2014 mandate for the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard). The RFS ensures that a minimum volume of renewable fuel is included in transportation fuel sold in the United States. Determining the RFS volume requirements involves anticipating market reaction as well as balancing policy objectives. We provide policy alternatives to aid in setting these volume obligations that are applicable to a wide variety of climate and energy market settings and explain why the RFS is not an optimal policy for reducing emissions. - Highlights: • First time a MOPEC has been used to model energy markets and climate policy. • Method to endogenously determine energy policy along with associated tradeoff. • Computationally efficient algorithm for MOPECs and compare to methods. • Explain why the RFS is not an optimal policy for emission reduction.

  1. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Both the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report stressed the need for the...

  2. Teacher-student relationship climate and school outcomes: implications for educational policy initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barile, John P; Donohue, Dana K; Anthony, Elizabeth R; Baker, Andrew M; Weaver, Scott R; Henrich, Christopher C

    2012-03-01

    In recent discussions regarding concerns about the academic achievement of US students, educational policy makers have suggested the implementation of certain teacher policies. To address the limited empirical research on the putative educational impact of such policies, this study used multilevel structural equation models to investigate the longitudinal associations between teacher evaluation and reward policies, and student mathematics achievement and dropout with a national sample of students (n = 7,779) attending one of 431 public high schools. The student sample included an equal number of boys and girls averaging 16 years of age, and included a White (53%) majority. This study examined whether associations between teacher policies and student achievement were mediated by the teacher-student relationship climate. Results of this study were threefold. First, teacher evaluation policies that allowed students to evaluate their teachers were associated with more positive student reports of the classroom teaching climate. Second, schools with teacher reward policies that included assigning higher performing teachers with higher performing students had a negative association with student perceptions of the teaching climate. Lastly, schools with better student perceptions of the teaching climate were associated with lower student dropout rates by students' senior year. These findings are discussed in light of their educational policy implications.

  3. Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capon, Anthony G; Rissel, Chris E

    2010-01-01

    Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.

  4. Lessons for climate policy from The Great Stink of London

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skuce, A.

    2012-12-01

    A rapidly growing population and the introduction of the flush toilet in nineteenth-century London caused a crisis with sewage pollution in the River Thames (Halliday, 1999). There were decades of delays in implementing solutions owing to: inadequate governance institutions; political inertia; difficulties with financing; opposition from vested interests; scientific uncertainties; and technological challenges. Effective counter-measures were started only once the problem arose, quite literally, under the noses of parliamentarians. There are parallels, some of them pointed out earlier by Alley et al (2010), between the sewage crisis in Victorian London and the current problem with climate change. Both involve the unsustainable use of a common resource (a river, the atmosphere) for the unconstrained disposal of human waste products. Alley (2011) estimated that the costs of providing clean water and sanitation are comparable to the expected costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the similarities, the climate change issue is actually much more difficult because of: a) the unequal and uncertain global distribution of cause and effect; b) its long, intergenerational time lines; c) the insufficiency of adequate institutions, conventions or the tools— political, moral or economic—for tackling the climate crisis. This analysis is consistent with the model proposed by Gardiner (2011) in his book A Perfect Moral Storm. The three "storms" he identifies, the global, intergenerational and theoretical storms, combine in a powerful synergy to create a challenge of unprecedented intractability, providing opportunities for what Gardiner calls moral corruption: the obscuring of the buck-passing and procrastination that characterizes climate policy today. In Victorian London, the crucial steps to solve the sewage crises were not taken until the stench from the River Thames during the hot summer of 1858 rendered the House of Commons uninhabitable. A greater stink of a

  5. Energy exporters and climate change. Potential economic impacts of climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wit, R.C.N.

    1997-06-01

    This review paper has been written on a commission by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London and is part of a project to investigate the possible impact of greenhouse gas mitigation policies on energy markets and therefore on countries exporting oil, gas and coal. The aim of the project conducted by RIIA is to achieve a better understanding of the role of energy exporters in international climate change negotiations on the road towards the second Conference of Parties in Kyoto at the end of 1997 and the underlying national strategies. All four 'economy'-oriented global model studies reviewed in this paper indicate that CO2-reduction policies would cause wide differences in welfare effects across regions. It appears that energy-exporting countries would suffer the greatest welfare losses. Although several policy instruments can be implemented to achieve CO2-emission reductions, only carbon taxes are considered in the models. The model results show that if world level CO2 emissions are approximately stabilized at their 1990 levels, the cumulative losses in GDP of energy exporters generally range between 3% and 12% by 2010. It should be strongly emphasized that the sign and magnitude of the economic impact of CO2 policy on energy exporters depend critically on how the policy instrument is designed. In the case of a carbon tax the following factors are crucial: (1) the choice between a consumption and a production tax, (2) whether it is based on a global or unilateral agreement, (3) the mode of revenue redistribution among countries and (4) whether emission trading is allowed. 27 refs

  6. The global effects of subglobal climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Fischer, Carolyn; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2010-01-01

    Individual countries are in the process of legislating responses to the challenges posed by climate change. The prospect of rising carbon prices raises concerns in these nations about the effects on the competitiveness of their own energy-intensive industries and the potential for carbon leakage,

  7. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  8. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-01-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

  9. Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather

    2012-01-01

    This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

  10. The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandel, Munish K.; Pratson, Lincoln F.; Jackson, Robert B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO 2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO 2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO 2 ), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO 2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO 2 . - Highlights: → We analyze the impact of climate change policy on water use for electricity generation. → Water use decreases with an increase in CO 2 allowance price. → Retrofitting of coal plants with CCS could increase water use considerably.

  11. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

  12. Climate prosperity, parallel paths: Canada-U.S. climate policy choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE) has conducted a study on the economic risks and opportunities of climate policies for Canada in the Canada-United States relationship background. This research aims to inform future policy decisions and provide ideas on means to serve Canadian interests in the context of this climate changing world. The NRTEE's research presented in this report focuses on the economic and environmental implications for Canada of harmonizing with the U.S. on climate policy. The document follows two main objectives: evaluate the consequences of U.S. climate policy choices for Canada and identify the policy options that would lead to a long-term reduction of emissions, taking into account the economic risks associated to policy choices in the U.S. and in Canada. According to the NRTEE, the government of Canada should take under consideration the benefits of the implementation of its own strategy for harmonization. This document provides a path leading to the achievement of a climate policy harmonization with the United States. 52 refs., 18 tabs., 24 figs.

  13. Climate change: lived experience, policy and public action

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, Dina; Wilson, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the importance of lived experiences, as complementary knowledge to that provided by the sciences, for policy and intervention on climate change.\\ud Design/methodology/approach – This conceptual paper draws on several strands within the context of climate change: knowledge and power; human engagement; the meaning of “lived experience” (and its association with “local/indigenous knowledge”); its capture through interdisciplinary and transdiscipl...

  14. Rio - 10 Years After: A Critical Appraisal of Climate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Böhringer, Christoph; Vogt, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992, the developed world is likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol which has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection. Standard economic theory, however, casts doubt that Kyoto will go beyond symbolic policy. In this paper we show that the final concretion of the Kyoto Protocol obeys the theoretical prediction: Kyoto more or less boils down to business-as-usual without significant compliance costs to ratifying parties.

  15. Contested knowledge in Dutch climate change policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V.J.J.M. Bekkers (Victor); M.W. van Buuren (Arwin); A.R. Edwards (Arthur); H.J.M. Fenger (Menno)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIn dealing with wicked problems, policymakers increasingly are confronted with three competing ‘knowledge claims’: the notion of evidence-based policy, alternative ‘commons knowledge’ created by citizens, and ‘fact-free’ politics. Consequently, the knowledge base for

  16. International climate change policy. Coping with differentiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, J.; Jepma, C.J.; Blok, K.

    1998-01-01

    This article focuses on the emission allowances for developed countries and compares the co-operative instruments for implementing the climate treaties. It argues that the emission allowances are mainly based on political willingness and that the flexible instruments are not yet mutually consistent and may lead to opportunistic behaviour on the part of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. Such behaviour may hamper the achievement of the environmental goals of the Kyoto Protocol, unless the emission reduction units are made comparable. In addition, the European Union triptych approach can be applied to the developing countries in order to successfully involve them in the process without compromising their priorities. 25 refs

  17. Background document for climate change policy options in Northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newton, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an initial compilation of background material in support of the development of climate change policy options for the jurisdictions of Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut in Northern Canada. While Northern Canada contributes only a small fraction of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, scientists forecast changes in average annual temperatures to be among the highest in the world. The Northern Climate Exchange at Yukon College was created in March 2001 to address this issue and to help guide northerners in what they can do now and in the future. This paper includes an annotated bibliography of a total of 75 international, national, and territorial policy documents and major reference documents relevant to climate change issues. It is meant to be a resource for researchers, policy analysts and government officials developing policy options and implementing programs for Northern Canada. While each of the three northern territories are at a different stage in the evolution of their climate change activities, they are all striving to develop strategies and action plans and to initiate the implementation of those plans. It is recognized that many long-standing programs and initiatives, particularly in the areas of energy efficiency and alternate energy, will help northern jurisdictions address their climate change objectives. The three territories are cooperating to deliver their message to the federal government. 75 refs., 4 figs

  18. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. Report for Policy Advisors and Policy Makers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndes, Goran [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden); Bird, Nell [Joanneum Research (Austria); Cowle, Annette [National Centre for Rural Greenhouse Gas Research (Australia)

    2010-07-01

    The report addresses a much debated issue - bioenergy and associated land use change, and how the climate change mitigation from use of bioenergy can be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use change. The purpose of the report was to produce an unbiased, authoritative statement on this topic aimed especially at policy advisors and policy makers.

  19. Status of Norwegian climate policy 2011; Statusrapport for norsk klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Norwegians are generally little impressed what Norway as a society has achieved in the climate policy. This is consistent with the actual situation as it is mapped in this year's edition of the Status of Norwegian climate policy. The results obtained in a survey by TNS Gallup which was commissioned by BI Centre for Climate Strategy in connection with the disclosure of the agency's annual status report for the Norwegian climate policy. 1000 Norwegians have been asked about how good or bad they perceive the overall results in various areas of climate policy. Even for climate-friendly heating, which is the area where most perceive that there has been progress, only 39% of the population consider the results as very good or good. In addition to heating, energy efficiency in buildings, Norway's international efforts, research on climate technology and information to the public areas where most Norwegians still think the results are good, and which are the least dissatisfied.Year Status Report on Norwegian climate policy is a joint project between the organization Holder de ord (Do they keep promises) and BI Centre for Climate Strategy. The report shows that people have a fairly accurate picture of climate policy. In most areas, there is little substantial progress since the Low Emission submitted its recommendations in 2006. It is symptomatic that climate policy was recently delayed again - now to 2012. While it is a positive development in the areas that are at the top of people's list. Since 2006, for example, there has been a substantial expansion of district heating in Norway, and building standards have become much stricter when it comes to energy use. Motor vehicle taxes are changed and greenhouse emissions from new cars is 25% lower than in 2006. Norway also play a constructive role, both in relation to the negotiations at the UN on a new climate deal, but also for example in relation to a global sectoral agreement for shipping that was signed

  20. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  1. Catching air? Climate change policy in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabonis-Helf, Theresa

    2003-01-01

    Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have each participated actively in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties, and each is developing domestic rules and institutions to address UN obligations under the treaties. Russia and Ukraine are each Annex I/Annex B countries. Kazakhstan will become Annex I upon ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, but has not yet established itself as Annex B. Each state has evolved a distinct set of policies and priorities in the domestic and the international arena. Drawing largely on interviews in each country, this article presents brief histories of the evolution of climate policy, focusing on each state's behavior in the international arena, the sources of domestic policy leadership, and the forces that led to change in each national approach. Current policies and practices are evaluated with an eye towards learning from the successes and failures in each state

  2. The grand coalition's climate policy: retrospective and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bausch, C.; Gorlach, B.

    2008-01-01

    2007 was a year of exceptional importance for Germany, due to the dual presidency and the decision to declare climate change as one of the key issues for both the G8 and the EU Presidency. Supported by public and media interest, climate change was pushed to the top of the international political agenda, at a critical time in the development of the international climate regime. Germany was able to show profile and leadership in international climate policy and Europe was able to set a political agenda and decide on targets, which have shaped European policies and legislative proposals since then, and will continue to do so into the future. In Germany, the Meseberg programme is the main initiative aiming at the implementation of climate policy, while at the European level the heads of states have been able to agree on the widely discussed climate - energy package. The authors provide an overview of the measures taken and assess them in light of the EU self-imposed political targets

  3. Wetlands in a changing climate: Science, policy and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moomaw, William R.; Chmura, G.L.; Davies, Gillian T.; Finlayson, Max; Middleton, Beth A.; Natali, Sue M.; Perry, James; Roulet, Nigel; Sutton-Grier, Ariana

    2018-01-01

    Part 1 of this review synthesizes recent research on status and climate vulnerability of freshwater and saltwater wetlands, and their contribution to addressing climate change (carbon cycle, adaptation, resilience). Peatlands and vegetated coastal wetlands are among the most carbon rich sinks on the planet sequestering approximately as much carbon as do global forest ecosystems. Estimates of the consequences of rising temperature on current wetland carbon storage and future carbon sequestration potential are summarized. We also demonstrate the need to prevent drying of wetlands and thawing of permafrost by disturbances and rising temperatures to protect wetland carbon stores and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services. Preventing further wetland loss is found to be important in limiting future emissions to meet climate goals, but is seldom considered. In Part 2, the paper explores the policy and management realm from international to national, subnational and local levels to identify strategies and policies reflecting an integrated understanding of both wetland and climate change science. Specific recommendations are made to capture synergies between wetlands and carbon cycle management, adaptation and resiliency to further enable researchers, policy makers and practitioners to protect wetland carbon and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services.

  4. Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Narasimha D.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; Riahi, Keywan; Bosetti, Valentina

    2017-12-01

    As climate change progresses, the risk of adverse impacts on vulnerable populations is growing. As governments seek increased and drastic action, policymakers are likely to seek quantification of climate-change impacts and the consequences of mitigation policies on these populations. Current models used in climate research have a limited ability to represent the poor and vulnerable, or the different dimensions along which they face these risks. Best practices need to be adopted more widely, and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms need to be developed. Increased collaboration between modellers, economists, and other social scientists could aid these developments.

  5. Policy instruments for evolution of bounded rationality: Application to climate-energy problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nannen, V.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate how an evolutionary agent-based model can be used to evaluate climate policies that take the heterogeneity of strategies of individual agents into account. An essential feature of the model is that the fitness of an economic strategy is determined by the relative welfare of the

  6. Water demand management: A policy response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, R.; Tate, D.

    1990-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Great Lakes region are discussed. It is predicted that there will be a relative water scarcity in the Great Lakes basin of Ontario as climate changes occur over the next two decades. Declines in water supply will be accompanied by deterioration in the quality of fresh water as higher temperatures and higher relative quantities of discharged wastewater to water bodies reduce both assimilative and dilutive capacity. The most cost effective policy is to encourage water conservation through programs of water demand management. Water should be priced at the point at which its marginal cost is equal to its marginal product, ie. if priced any higher, less efficient substitutes would be used. Not only would water usage, and subsequent degradation of used water, be reduced, but energy and other cost savings would be achieved. The additional costs that apply to water users could be returned to the communities as additional revenue to be applied against sewage treatment upgrades and other environmental enhancements. Communities involved in water study should consider the development of water use analysis models to assist with decision making about allocation, pricing and availability of water supplies. 10 refs

  7. Innovations in climate policy: conclusions and new directions

    OpenAIRE

    Jordan, A.; Huitema, D.

    2014-01-01

    Academics and practitioners have responded to the gridlock in the international climate-change regime by more actively exploring the ability of individuals and/or groups of states to fill in the associated ‘governance gaps’ by engaging in policy innovation at the level of the nation state, including its regional and local emanations. Here, we draw together the findings of a collection that, for the first time, explores policy innovation at this level from three key perspectives: the source of...

  8. Climatic architecture: Situation, principles, establishment of technical policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brejon, P.

    1994-01-01

    Climatic architecture, despite the efforts of its protagonists, remains nearly marginal. Nevertheless, environmental awareness is gaining ground, whether through concern for the depletion of natural resources, for global warming or for CO 2 emissions. It is only by establishing technical policies, making an effort in terms of training and research and distributing knowledge to all those in the business that the principles of climatic architecture will actually be applied in the field. Resources are available to make climatic architecture a fundamental concern in the design of environmentally friendly buildings. (author). 6 refs, 3 tabs

  9. Energy security of supply under EU climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenenberg, H.; Wetzelaer, B.J.H.W.

    2006-12-01

    The implications of various climate policies for the security of supply in the EU-25 were investigated. The security of supply was quantified using the Supply/Demand (S/D) Index. This index aggregates quantitative information on a country's energy system into one single figure. It takes a value between 0 and 100, with higher values indicating a more secure energy system. The S/D Index was calculated for the year 2020 based on the information in a series of policy scenarios, including a baseline (S/D Index 50.7), an energy efficiency scenario (53.8), two renewable energy scenarios (52.6 and 53.3) and two scenarios with combined policies (55.9 and 55.6).The S/D Index proved a useful indicator for assessing the implications of climate policies for the security of supply. As climate policies become more stringent, CO2 index fall, and the S/D index increases. The magnitude of the changes in the two indices is not always similar however. Major falls in CO2 indices in the order of 20% for two scenarios with combined energy efficiency and renewable energy polices lead to less noteworthy improvements in the associated S/D indices. Nevertheless, this combination of policies leads to the greatest improvements in the security of supply

  10. Intra-party policy entrepreneurship and party goals. The case of political parties’ climate policy preferences in Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Little, Conor

    2017-01-01

    This study contributes to the growing literature on the domestic politics of climate change by examining the climate policy preferences of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Labour Party over 20 years. Bringing the concept of ‘policy entrepreneurship’ into the study of intra-party politics, it uses...... who have engaged in policy entrepreneurship with the aim of strengthening their parties’ climate policy preferences. In instances where office-seeking incentives for climate policy have been strong, they have often contributed to changes in policy preferences, whether or not intra-party policy...... entrepreneurship has been present. Theoretically, the study argues that the concept of ‘policy entrepreneurship’ can be usefully borrowed from the public policy literature by researchers of party policy preferences and intra-party politics. Empirically, it adds to the small but growing body of research on climate...

  11. Economic and ethical arguments inglobal climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaergaard, Niels

    1998-01-01

    The debate about the reduction of CO 2 -emissions, as seen for example at the UN climate conference in Kyoto, includes a mixture of economic and ethical arguments. Joint implementation using the market mechanisms is viewed as being unethical because the rich countries are able to pay others to carry out their redutions. This debate is seen as a continuation of a very old discussion about the ethics of the market. The Nordic electricity market is used as an example to demonstrate that the use of tradeable permissions has well defined positive consequences. (au) 26 refs

  12. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Uncertain discount rates in climate policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, R.G.; Pizer, W.A.

    2004-01-01

    Consequences in the distant future - such as those from climate change--have little value today when discounted using conventional rates. This result contradicts our 'gut feeling' about such problems and often leads to ad hoc application of lower rates for valuations over longer horizons - a step facilitated by confusion and disagreement over the correct rate even over short horizons. We review the theory and intuition behind the choice of discount rates now and, importantly, the impact of likely variation in rates in the future. Correlated changes in future rates imply that the distant future should be discounted at much lower rates than suggested by the current rate, thereby raising the value of future consequences - regardless of opinions concerning the current rate. Using historic data to quantity the likely changes and correlation in changes in future rates, we find that future valuations rise by a factor of many thousands at horizons of 300 years or more, almost doubling the expected present value of climate mitigation benefits relative to constant 4% discounting. Ironically, uncertainty about future rates reduces the ratio of valuations based on alternate choices of the current rate

  14. Advancing methodological thinking and practice for development-compatible climate policy planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scrieciu, S. Şerban; Belton, Valerie; Chalabi, Zaid

    2014-01-01

    planning climate policy actions.We also argue that analytical tools drawing on economic thinking which embraces interdisciplinary analysis and deep uncertainty and avoids the fallacy of unique optimal solutions, may deliver more effective strategies for pushing economies onto the transformational pathways...... body of competitive general equilibrium optimization models and cost-benefit analysis techniques of aggregation and monetization. However, its recommendations for climate action are often based on highly restrictive underlying assumptions, which have been increasingly criticized for being too...

  15. Integrated simulation, evaluation of the climatic risks and safety policies. Synthesis report july 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.Ch.; LeTreut, H.

    2002-07-01

    The aim of this program is the improvement of the natural phenomena representation in the integrated models of the climate policies evaluation and to precise the methodological problems resulting from the damages treatment. It underlines the importance of the retroactions between the CO 2 emissions, the lands affectation and the carbon cycle, as the importance of the uncertainties on the climate sensitivity. (A.L.B.)

  16. Global climate policy and local energy politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Mark Daniel; Michaelowa, Katharina

    2016-01-01

    Along with the large middle-income countries Brazil, China, and South Africa, India has been put under increasing pressure to shoulder parts of the mitigation burden and commit to national emission reduction targets. India, however, refers to its limited capacity and widespread poverty. Is India......-poor arguments advanced at the international level. Given their large number and the country's democratic system, the poor do have some weight in Indian politics. However, pro-poor policies end where they do not translate into greater vote shares. Moreover, India's international position ignores the existing...

  17. Policy modeling for industrial energy use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

    2003-03-01

    The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

  18. The application of the GWP concept in climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen LHJM; Fransen W; LLO; KNMI

    1997-01-01

    Both the scientific aspects of the Global Warming Potential concept (GWP) and its use in climate policy are analysed and discussed in this document. GWPs are indexed numbers to allow assessment of the relative contribution of emissions of long-living greenhouse gases to the enhancement of the

  19. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  20. Innovations in climate policy: conclusions and new directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jordan, A.; Huitema, D.

    2014-01-01

    Academics and practitioners have responded to the gridlock in the international climate-change regime by more actively exploring the ability of individuals and/or groups of states to fill in the associated ‘governance gaps’ by engaging in policy innovation at the level of the nation state, including

  1. Integrating development and climate policies: National and international benefits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, M.; Metz, B.; Verhagen, J.

    2008-01-01

    What lessons for policy makers at national and international level can be drawn from the growing experiences of reconciling development and climate change? The key to achieving this is to approach the problem from the development perspective, since that is where in most countries the priority lies.

  2. Speaking truth to power revisited: science, policy and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, D. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Magdeburg (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserforschung; Krueck, C. [VDI-Technologiezentrum Physikalische Technologien, Duesseldorf (Germany). Abt. Zukuenftige Technologien

    2000-07-01

    The issue of climate change from the perspectives of climate change scientists and climate policy makers is discussed using results from two survey questionnaires. Emphasis is given to the German context. Included is the self assessment of the state of the art of the climate sciences and the importance assigned to different sources of information by policy makers. Conclusions indicate that policy makers rely on a number of sources other than the direct results of science, and have assigned a greater sense of urgency to the issue of climate change than have scientists. (orig.) [German] Auf Grundlage der Ergebnisse zweier Fragebogenaktionen wird diskutiert, wie sich die Problematik von Klimaveraenderungen aus der Perspektive von Klimaforschern und aus der Perspektive von mit Klimapolitik befassten Entscheidungstraegern darstellt. Die Betonung liegt auf den Verhaeltnissen in Deutschland. Eingeschlossen ist eine Einschaetzung des aktuellen Standes der Klimaforschung durch die Wissenschaftler selbst sowie der Bedeutung, welche von politischen Entscheidungstraegern verschiedenen Informationsquellen beigemessen wird. Es zeigt sich, dass sich politische Entscheidungstraeger auf zahlreiche Informationsquellen verlassen, die nur indirekt die Resultate der Klimaforschung wiedergeben und, dass dieser Personenkreis das Problem der Klimaveraenderungen als draengender ansieht als die Wissenschaftler selbst. (orig.)

  3. Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

  4. Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

    2005-01-01

    This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

  5. Climate policies: distributive effects and recycling revenue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    Implementing the Environment Grenelle will involve the introduction of a 'climate-energy' contribution, compensated by a drop in overall tax burden. Last February, the French President ordered a study into the extent to which this contribution could compensate for the abolition of professional taxes. The Senate's Finance Commission has since constituted a work group on environmental taxation, chaired by Fabienne Keller, to analyse, by the yardstick of foreign experiences, the conditions for creating a 'carbon tax' in France. Such a tax could have a negative impact on the most disadvantaged households. However, it is possible - following the example of other countries - to use part of this new tax to neutralise regressive effects and allocate another part to an objective of growth, competitiveness and employment. (author)

  6. Cities in Climate Change Mitigation Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

    2015-03-01

    The phenomenon of accelerated urbanization of emerging and developing economies is a potential source of harmful environmental impacts on people's well-being. Major negative effects can especially be expected on the climate, possibly compromising, in the long run, large-scale local economic development. This is because the urban environment is characterized by a concentration of activities with high energy consumption (between 56 and 78% of final energy used is ascribable to transportation and buildings, as well as to industries and services). These activities, in addition to generating significant local pollution, are a large source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Due to divergent methods of calculation as well as to the perimeter of urban activities, there is uncertainty about the exact extent to which these activities contribute to GHG. Nonetheless, a strong increase in the overall impact of cities on climate change can be expected. The international community wants to reach a coordinated commitment to keep global warming between now and the end of the 21. century under the threshold of an average 2 deg. C higher than the temperature of the pre-industrial age and thereby prevent irreversible damage from climate disturbance. This comes down to examining the potential of cities to contribute to implementing effective solutions. However, analysis of mid- to long-term impacts of urban development strategies on GHG emissions is still difficult, due to great complexity of the underlying impact mechanisms. Because of the large number of sectors and services concerned (transportation infrastructures and networks, energy-management services, and urban spatial planning), urban development strategies can simultaneously have a direct and indirect effect on several sources of GHG emissions. They are also highly dependent on each country's competence level and institutional organization. Despite this complexity, the urgency of the climate issues linked to growing

  7. On the efficiency of climate policies international coordination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalil, Helioui

    2006-01-01

    This article analyses the economic efficiency of climate policies international coordination acknowledging long term perspectives and political constraints. It questions the economic and political viability of emission trading with respect to market power and dynamic distortions. The latter proves more worrying. While one may reasonably expect national positions being decentralized, the Climate Convention cannot commit on long term emission objectives. As a consequence, there is room for strategic behaviour by governments. Structural public programs, crucial to curb long term emissions, are likely to be scaled down because governments expect post-2012 quotas to be revised according to observed trends. This might jeopardize the climate action and further weaken the political consensus it requires. Are carbon taxes a better policy option? It might be the case provided the tax is levied at the international level, but this option faces political obstacles. A hybrid scheme should realize a good compromise between economic efficiency and political acceptability. (author)

  8. Unilateral or Reciprocal Climate Policy? Experimental Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Bernauer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The traditional political economy account of global climate change governance directs our attention to fundamental collective action problems associated with global public goods provision, resulting from positive or negative externalities as well as freeriding. The governance architecture of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol uses the traditional approaches of international diplomacy for addressing such challenges: legally binding commitments based on principles of reciprocity and (fair cost/burden sharing via formalized carbon-budgeting. Yet, the 2015 Paris Agreement has essentially abandoned this approach, as it now operates on the basis of internationally coordinated and monitored unilateralism. On the presumption that public opinion matters for government policy, we examine how citizens view this shift in climate policy from reciprocity to unilateralism, after many years of exposure to strong reciprocity rhetoric by governments and stakeholders. To that end, we fielded a survey experiment in China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG emitter. The results show that there is, perhaps surprisingly, strong and robust public support for unilateral, non-reciprocal climate policy. To the extent China is interested in pushing ahead with ambitious and thus costly GHG reduction policies, our results suggest that China can leverage segments of public support in order to overcome domestic obstacles to GHG mitigation policies.

  9. Coal transport demand in Western Europe and Japan: Impacts of energy market liberalisation and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golombek, Rolf; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Maestad, Ottar

    2005-12-01

    Western Europe and Japan are among the main importers of coal. Climate policies following the Kyoto agreement are creating pressure to substitute away from coal and turn to less emission intensive energy sources. At the same time, liberalizations of energy markets in Europe and Japan are likely to cause reduced electricity prices, which will boost the overall demand for electricity. This paper analyses the combined effect of electricity market liberalization and climate policies on the international coal trade. Using the numerical equilibrium model LIBEMOD, we find that while liberalization of electricity markets will imply a large increase in aggregate coal transport demand, the negative impact of climate policies may be even larger, in particular if Russia and Ukraine utilise their market power in the market for emission permits. If this market power is exploited, the total effect of liberalisation and climate policy - when including the impact of general economic growth - is a 20% reduction in aggregate coal transport between 2000 and 2010. Further, impacts differ markedly between Western Europe and Japan. A main difference is that liberalisation has a much more positive - and climate policies have a much stronger negative - impact on steam coal demand in Western Europe than in Japan

  10. Climate change and US energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streets, D.G.; Bloyd, C.N.; Boyd, G.A.; Santini, D.J.; Veselka, T.D.

    1991-01-01

    We present an analysis of the ability of the US to achieve significant reductions in CO 2 emissions in the future. The emission-reduction objectives are 20% by the year 2000 and 50% by 2010, measured relative to 1985 levels. The economic sectors studied are electricity supply, industrial manufacturing; and transportation. The near-term reductions are considered to be achievable but with significant disruptions; the long-term goals are unlikely to be achieved without new breakthroughs in technology. Electricity-supply options, such as increased use of NG and more-efficient technologies, cannot alone allow us to achieve the goals, and end-use conservation will likely be the major contributor. Policy intervention in the industrial sector could achieve significant emission reductions, but concerns about international competition are important. In the transportation sector, analysis shows that fuel-economy regulation is preferable to gasoline-price increases. (author)

  11. A left-wing policy for climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, Benjamin

    2014-07-01

    As a recent IPCC report outlined the potential increase of the planet temperature due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, the objective would be to reduce these emissions by a factor 2 by 2050, but also by a factor 4 or 5 for western countries. The author outlines that greenhouse gas emissions are generally attributed to carbonated energy sources (coal, oil, gas) whereas the IPCC report states that this share is indeed important but not predominant. Focussing on the reduction of these energies bypasses risks associated with the development of the nuclear sector (accidents, waste management, proliferation) or those associated with shale gas production (high methane leakages). Then, the author identifies two main ways of thinking. The first one relies on an absolute necessity of economic growth to address the main difficulties faced by the society (jobs, purchasing power, and reduction of inequalities) without putting determining factors of energy demand evolution into question again (urban sprawl, development of office buildings, mobility, agriculture and food practices). The second one puts environmental constraints and economic and social issues on the same level. Thus, prospective scenarios based on these different approaches and policies give different results, at the national level as well as at the international level. These different obtained trajectories (based either on a still important energy demand, on energy efficiency and collective and individual savings) are summarized and compared, notably in terms of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The author then outlines the challenges of a policy aimed at energy savings and low energy consumption, discusses how to generalise good practices. He discusses the implications in terms of industry and jobs, and shows how the French bill project on energy transition can be perceived as disappointing on different aspects (technical, political, financial)

  12. State Policies on School Climate and Bully Prevention Efforts: Challenges and Opportunities for Deepening State Policy Support for Safe and Civil Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piscatelli, Jennifer; Lee, Chiqueena

    2011-01-01

    The National School Climate Center (NSCC) completed a 50-state policy scan on state school climate and anti-bullying policies to better understand the current state policy infrastructure supporting the development of positive school climates. This policy brief examines the current status of school climate and anti-bullying policies in each state,…

  13. Development of Taiwanese government’s climate policy after the Kyoto protocol: Applying policy network theory as an analytical framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shyu, Chian-Woei

    2014-01-01

    Given its limited involvement in and recognition by international organizations, Taiwan is not presently a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Kyoto Protocol. The objective of this study is to analyze how and the extent to which changes in an exogenous factor, namely the Kyoto Protocol and Post-Kyoto climate negotiations, affect and ultimately lead to the formulation of and changes in the Taiwanese government's climate policy. This study applies policy network theory to examine the development of and changes in the Taiwanese government's climate policy. The results demonstrate that international climate agreements and negotiations play a key role in the development of, changes to, and transformation of Taiwan's climate policy. Scarce evidence was found in this study to demonstrate that domestic or internal factors affect climate change policy. Despite its lack of participation in the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, Taiwan has adopted national climate change strategies, action plans, and programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, these climate policies and measures are fairly passive and aim to only conform to the minimal requirements for developing countries under international climate agreements and negotiations. This process results in inconsistent and variable climate policies, targets, and regulations. - Highlights: • Taiwan is not a signatory to the UNFCCC or its Kyoto Protocol. • International climate agreements strongly affected Taiwan's climate policy. • Little evidence was found that domestic factors affect Taiwan's climate policy. • New climate policies, regulations, and laws are formulated and implemented. • Climate policies, targets, and regulations change frequently and are inconsistent

  14. Environmental federalism and US climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, L.M. [Bracewell and Patterson, LLP (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Environmental disputes involving states over the proper state and federal roles have grown in number and magnitude over the last several years, with many disputes engaging dozens of states. States with competing views are fully engaged in the ongoing debate over climate change, a textbook case for testing the contours of environmental federalism. The issue has all the necessary components: transboundary environmental impacts; competing state economic and environmental interests; state self-interest; disagreement on first principles including what is the proper role of the states; and a somewhat ill-defined federal role. With those qualities, one would expect the federal government to step in and regulate. Instead, the federal government has declined to regulate, inviting a national discourse on whether and how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As of Spring 2004, twenty-eight states have launched or are planning initiatives, some of which will directly regulate sources of GHG emissions. As these programs take root, pressure will build for a greater federal role. This paper will advance the position that even with this building momentum, the federal government is not likely to emulate state programs that mandate CO{sub 2} emission reductions. In the face of high national cost, uncertain environmental benefits, and a history of federal non-regulatory action, federal regulation at this time appears to be a remote possibility. State efforts to address global climate change add value to the debate, but they do not create the cocoon of consensus the federal government seeks before launching mandatory programs of this magnitude. The more likely scenario is that the federal government will continue on its present course, funding research and development, investing in energy efficient technologies, and supporting voluntary measures. Under this scenario, states and the private sector would continue to function as the 'laboratories' to develop new ideas to

  15. Environmental federalism and US climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, L.M.

    2004-01-01

    Environmental disputes involving states over the proper state and federal roles have grown in number and magnitude over the last several years, with many disputes engaging dozens of states. States with competing views are fully engaged in the ongoing debate over climate change, a textbook case for testing the contours of environmental federalism. The issue has all the necessary components: transboundary environmental impacts; competing state economic and environmental interests; state self-interest; disagreement on first principles including what is the proper role of the states; and a somewhat ill-defined federal role. With those qualities, one would expect the federal government to step in and regulate. Instead, the federal government has declined to regulate, inviting a national discourse on whether and how to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As of Spring 2004, twenty-eight states have launched or are planning initiatives, some of which will directly regulate sources of GHG emissions. As these programs take root, pressure will build for a greater federal role. This paper will advance the position that even with this building momentum, the federal government is not likely to emulate state programs that mandate CO 2 emission reductions. In the face of high national cost, uncertain environmental benefits, and a history of federal non-regulatory action, federal regulation at this time appears to be a remote possibility. State efforts to address global climate change add value to the debate, but they do not create the cocoon of consensus the federal government seeks before launching mandatory programs of this magnitude. The more likely scenario is that the federal government will continue on its present course, funding research and development, investing in energy efficient technologies, and supporting voluntary measures. Under this scenario, states and the private sector would continue to function as the 'laboratories' to develop new ideas to improve energy

  16. Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

    2014-12-01

    Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

  17. R and D Subsidies and Climate Policy. Is There a 'Free Lunch'?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popp, D.

    2006-01-01

    Because of the long-term nature of the climate problem, technological advances are often seen as an important component of any solution. However, when considering the potential for technology to help solve the climate problem, two market failures exist which lead to underinvestment in climate-friendly R and D: environmental externalities and the public goods nature of new knowledge. As a result, government subsidies to climate-friendly R and D projects are often proposed as part of a policy solution. Using the ENTICE model, I analyze the effectiveness of such subsidies, both with and without other climate policies, such as a carbon tax. While R and D subsidies do lead to significant increases in climate-friendly R and D, this R and D has little impact on the climate itself. Subsidies address the problem of knowledge as a public good, but they do not address the environmental externality, and thus offer no additional incentive to adopt new technologies. Moreover, high opportunity costs to R and D limit the potential role that subsidies can play. While R and D subsidies can improve efficiency, policies that directly affect the environmental externality have a much larger impact on both atmospheric temperature and economic welfare

  18. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty

  19. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai Sian Ng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measures taken by this small country could offer policy insights for small states and states without access to alternative energy sources. This research analyzes the online policy documents posted by eleven organizations to answer the main research question of identifying policy levers as theoretical constructs to form a framework that can be used to study climate change policies. A qualitative data analysis software, QSR NVivo 10, is used to classify the proposed nodes developed by the researchers using a system perspective integrating the insights from the key international climate change frameworks with the theoretical concepts from the model of pro-environmental behavior. The findings can offer insights toward developing a new contextual influence framework, which can help strengthen policy development and outcome measurement.

  20. Energy policy and climate change in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaygusuz, Kamil

    2003-01-01

    The problem of massive emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the burning of fossil fuels and their climatic impact have become major scientific and political issues. Future stabilization of the atmospheric CO 2 content requires a drastic decrease of CO 2 emissions worldwide. In this study, energy utilization and its major environmental impacts are discussed from the standpoint of sustainable development, including anticipated patterns of future energy use and subsequent environmental issues in Turkey. Several aspects relating to energy utilization, renewable energy, energy efficiency, environment and sustainable development are examined from both current and future perspectives. Turkey is an energy importing country; with more than half of the energy requirement being supplied by imports. Domestic oil and lignite reserves are limited, and the lignites are characterised by high ash, sulfur and moisture contents. Because of increasing energy consumption, air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern for the future in the country. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions for sustainable energy development and environmental pollution prevention in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of the renewable energy sources

  1. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  2. Point Climat no. 22 'Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is laying the initial foundations for a European agricultural climate policy'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foucherot, Claudine; Bellassen, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has had a very small climate component since 1992. The recent inclusion of green payments and the climate risk management tools proposed for the CAP for the period beyond 2013 illustrate the European Commission's willingness to expand this climate component. Furthermore, there is little mention of the agricultural sector in the tools rolled out by the European climate policy, particularly those derived from the 2009 'Climate and Energy' Package. Therefore, even if this autumn's parliamentary debate results in the reform proposals being diluted, the post-2013 CAP could nevertheless become a principal tool for a common EU climate policy in the agricultural sector

  3. International Survey on agriculture-climate change policy instruments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernagut, M.; Priem, M.; Sorgeloos, L.

    2011-09-15

    The title study provides an international overview of agriculture-climate change policy instruments for the reduction of methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The aim of this study is to clarify how national and/or international agriculture-climate-policies could or should be instrumented during the coming three to five years to achieve significant emission reductions of methane and nitrous oxide in the Dutch agricultural sector by 2020. The study includes an international survey, a quick-scan inventory of useful and inspiring examples of policy and reduction measures to reduce non CO2 greenhouse gases. ERM used an approach consisting out of three phases. In the first phase countries were selected on the basis of emissions and Kyoto protocol targets. In the second phase policy measures of these countries were listed, based on publicly available national and international sources. In a third phase a sub-set of this selection was analyzed in-depth through communications with local focal points and additional review of policy documents, to enhance the understanding of context, impact and results of each of these policies and measures.

  4. The safety valve and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Ellerman, A.D.

    2004-01-01

    The 'safety valve' is a possible addition to a cap-and-trade system of emissions regulation whereby the authority offers to sell permits in unlimited amount at a pre-set price. In this way the cost of meeting the cap can be limited. It was proposed in the US as a way to control perceived high costs of the Kyoto Protocol, and possibly as a way to shift the focus of policy from the quantity targets of the Protocol to emissions price. In international discussions, the idea emerged as a proposal for a compliance penalty. The usefulness of the safety valve depends on the conditions under which it might be introduced. For a time it might tame an overly stringent emissions target. It also can help control the price volatility during the introduction of gradually tightening one, although permit banking can ultimately serve the same function. It is unlikely to serve as a long-term feature of a cap-and-trade system, however, because of the complexity of coordinating price and quantity instruments and because it will interfere with the development of systems of international emissions trade

  5. Induced innovations and climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakeman, G.; Hinchy, M.; Fisher, B.S.; Woffenden, K.; Hanslow, K.

    2004-01-01

    With the recent progress in Bonn and Marrakech on the details required for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, entry into force in 2003 is now a possibility. This paper assesses the potential macroeconomic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol, given the recent negotiated developments. In addition, given the recent attempts in the literature to model endogenous technical change in general equilibrium models, a new methodology for incorporating the induced innovations hypothesis into a general equilibrium model is described and implemented. In line with previous work, it is found that incorporation of the hypothesis reduces abatement costs. (author)

  6. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  7. China's climate-change policy 1988-2011: From zero to hero?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stensdal, Iselin

    2012-11-01

    This report describes the evolution of China's domestic climate-change policy over the period 1988-2011, using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to explore the policy change. Policy development has been gradual, with the most notable change occurring in 2007, when the National Climate Change Programme elevated climate change to a national policy issue. Within the climate-change policy subsystem there emerged an advocacy coalition - the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition - urging that climate change should be taken into consideration in relevant policies. The ACF points to socioeconomic development and the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition's policy-oriented learning as explanations for the development of climate-change policy in China.(auth)

  8. Sea Change: US Climate Policy Prospects under the Obama Administration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roman, Mikael [Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Carson, Marcus [Dept. of Sociology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-03-15

    This report has been produced for the Swedish Government's Sustainability Commission in preparation for the Swedish EU Presidency during the second half of 2009, and consequent Swedish leadership of the EU delegation in the COP-15 negotiations in Copenhagen. The central task of the report is to provide an overview of the key factors that will condition the near-term development of United States climate policy, with a view to the eventual likelihood of the US signing and ratifying a new global agreement in the upcoming negotiations on climate change. While we take note of the importance of factors external to US politics, such as potential developments in bilateral discussions with China and other major greenhouse gas emitters, our analysis focuses primarily on factors that influence US domestic policy dynamics. To accomplish that task, the subsequent pages address three main questions. First, what are the stated goals and contours of the Obama Administration's policies regarding climate change? Second, what are the opportunities and obstacles connected with realizing this agenda - from negotiating and deciding, then effectively implementing it - and via which pathways of action are we likely to see important initiatives being moved? Finally, what are the implications for the negotiations in Copenhagen and beyond? We conclude by identifying a number of important considerations that should be taken into account in preparations for the Swedish EU Presidency and the climate negotiations in Copenhagen

  9. Sea Change: US Climate Policy Prospects under the Obama Administration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roman, Mikael (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)); Carson, Marcus (Dept. of Sociology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)). e-mail: mikael.roman@sei.se

    2009-03-15

    This report has been produced for the Swedish Government's Sustainability Commission in preparation for the Swedish EU Presidency during the second half of 2009, and consequent Swedish leadership of the EU delegation in the COP-15 negotiations in Copenhagen. The central task of the report is to provide an overview of the key factors that will condition the near-term development of United States climate policy, with a view to the eventual likelihood of the US signing and ratifying a new global agreement in the upcoming negotiations on climate change. While we take note of the importance of factors external to US politics, such as potential developments in bilateral discussions with China and other major greenhouse gas emitters, our analysis focuses primarily on factors that influence US domestic policy dynamics. To accomplish that task, the subsequent pages address three main questions. First, what are the stated goals and contours of the Obama Administration's policies regarding climate change? Second, what are the opportunities and obstacles connected with realizing this agenda - from negotiating and deciding, then effectively implementing it - and via which pathways of action are we likely to see important initiatives being moved? Finally, what are the implications for the negotiations in Copenhagen and beyond? We conclude by identifying a number of important considerations that should be taken into account in preparations for the Swedish EU Presidency and the climate negotiations in Copenhagen

  10. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  11. Framework agreement on climate change: a scientific and policy history

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hecht, A.D.; Tirpak, D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is a mixture of journalism and history. It is journalistic in the sense of providing an annotated chronology of key events and publications since 1970 that ultimately led to the signing of the Framework Agreement on Climate Change (herein referred to as the Convention). It is also history in that the authors share their insight on these events and offer their perspective of how science and policy-making interacted. After the signing of the Climate Convention at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (June, 1992), the authors began to think about the many events that led to this historic agreements. When did the process really begin? What were the seminal scientific papers? When did climate change become a policy issue? What lessons do we learn for the future? The authors soon recognized there was no clear beginning to either the science or policy story. Both aspects evolved, with science and policy decisions affecting each other. The resulting history is decidedly a US perspective. While there will no doubt be arguments over the significance of all the events cited as well as the omission of others, the authors have for the first time synthesized the major themes that led to the climate convention. The discussion is organized into three periods of time: 1970-1980 (ending with the first World Climate Conference), 1980-1987 (ending with the US presidential election), and 1988-1992 (signing of the Convention). For each period there is an overall summary and analysis followed by a chronology of selected events. 52 refs

  12. Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, Neil

    2011-01-01

    Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

  13. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  14. Environmental research organizations and climate change policy analytical capacity : an assessment of the Canadian case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howlett, M.; Oliphant, S.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a topic of increasing interest to contemporary decision makers. In order for governments to make informed decisions in climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, environmental policy makers require strong research and analytical capabilities to design and implement effective policies to deal with wide-ranging and complex policy issues. This articles presented a 7-criteria model of policy analytical capacity (PAC) and applied it to 3 prominent Canadian environmental policy research organizations. The 2 governmental organizations examined in this study were Environment Canada and the British Columbia Ministry of the Environment, while the non-government organization was the David Suzuki Foundation. Following the 7 principles that determine the PAC of an organization, each case study examined the education/training of the organization's employees; the types and mix of policy analysis techniques used by the organization; the culture and structure of decision making in the organization; the nature and source of demand for the organization's research; and the organization's access to necessary data and information to conduct work at a high level of competence. Interview data provided information on the status of each organizations' current research capacity and the effect this has on overall government policy-making capability in the face of climate change challenges. 75 refs.

  15. Climate change: Moving from scientific to institutional and policy questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, B.

    1990-01-01

    The issue of how societies, through their policies and institutional arrangements, can most effectively respond to climate change, is discussed. Four characteristics contributing to the continued failure to resolve the issue are an enormous uncertainty in every part of the problem; the long time scale of effects, ensuring that a modest amount of discounting reduces the present day cost of any future environmental impact that is less than catastrophic to minor proportions; a belief that trying to avert climate change will be very expensive no matter how it is done; and the global nature of the issues calls for an unprecedented amount of international cooperation. Strategies to deal with climate change may be grouped into three categories: preventative, curative and adaptive. The preventative or adjustment strategy involves the restriction or reduction of activities that contribute to carbon dioxide emissions. Under this approach there would be no new fossil fuel plants constructed, and some existing plants might be closed. The curative strategy focuses on addressing the carbon dioxide concentrations being produced and concentrates on neutralizing them. The adaptive or adaptation strategy assumes that carbon dioxide concentrations will continue to build and that society will eventually develop means to cope with the climatic alteration. To assist policy makers, those conducting research need to devote more effort to examining the interrelationships among climate change and other societal concerns, the aspects of uncertainty and surprise, and the range of strategies. 21 refs

  16. Climate policies in a second-best world-A case study on India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Guivarch, Celine

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this article is to analyze the potential for synergies between climate policies and development in a case study on India focusing on the power sector sub-optimalities. To do so, we use IMACLIM-R, a dynamic recursive energy-economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. The analysis suggests (i) global carbon pricing induces prohibitive macroeconomic costs for the Indian economy, even in the case of significant financial transfers associated with a global cap-and-trade system and a 'Contraction and Convergence in 2100' allocation scheme and (ii) the most cost efficient climate policies are not uniform carbon pricing only. The implementation of domestic policies suited to the national context, for instance targeting sub-optimalities in the power sector for India, allows reducing significantly the macroeconomic costs induced by international mitigation policies.

  17. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic

  18. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  19. Climate for Collaboration: Analysis of US and EU Lessons and Opportunities in Energy and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vita, A.; de Connick, H.; McLaren, J.; Cochran, J.

    2009-11-01

    A deepening of cooperation between the United States and the European Union requires mutual trust, and understanding of current policies, challenges and successes. Through providing such understanding among policymakers, industry and other stakeholders in both economies, opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on climate change and energy policy emerge. This paper sets out by discussing the environmental, legislative, and economic contexts of the EU and US as related to climate. This context is essential to understanding how cap-and-trade, renewable energy and sustainable transportation policies have taken shape in the EU and the US, as described in Chapter 3.1. For each of these policies, a barrier analysis and discussion is provided. Chapter 4 builds off this improved understanding to listobservations and possible lessons learned. The paper concludes with recommendations on topics where EU and US interests align, and where further cooperation could prove beneficial.

  20. Carbon Sequestration and Optimal Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grimaud, Andre; Rouge, Luc

    2009-01-01

    We present an endogenous growth model in which the use of a non-renewable natural resource generates carbon-dioxide emissions that can be partly sequestered. This approach breaks with the systematic link between resource use and pollution emission. The accumulated stock of remaining emissions has a negative impact on household utility and corporate productivity. While sequestration quickens the optimal extraction rate, it can also generate higher emissions in the short run. It also has an adverse effect on economic growth. We study the impact of a carbon tax: the level of the tax has an effect in our model, its optimal level is positive, and it can be interpreted ex post as a decreasing ad valorem tax on the resource

  1. FAIR 1.0 (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments). An interactive model to explore options for differentiation of future commitments in international climate policy making. User documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Berk, M.M.; Both, S.; Faber, A.; Oostenrijk, R.

    2001-02-01

    This report contains the model documentation and user instructions of the FAIR model (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments). FAIR is an interactive - scanner-type - computer model to quantitatively explore a range of alternative climate policy options for international differentiation of future commitments and link these to targets for global climate protection. The model includes three different approaches for evaluating international commitment regimes: (1) Increasing participation: in this mode the number of parties involved and their level of commitment gradually increase according to participation and differentiation rules, such as per capita income, per capita emissions, or contribution to global warming; (2) Convergence: in this mode all parties participate in the burden-sharing regime, with emission rights converging to equal per capita levels over time; (3) Triptych: different burden sharing rules are applied for different sectors (e.g. convergence of per capita emissions in the domestic sector, efficiency and de-carbonisation targets for the industry sector and the power generation sector). The first two modes are representatives of top-down methodologies, so from global emission ceilings to regional emission budgets, whereas the triptych approach is more bottom-up in character, although it can be combined with specific emission targets (as illustrated in the case of the EU). In order to construct and evaluate global emission profiles, the FAIR model also has the mode: Scenario construction. In this mode the impacts in terms of the main climate indicators can be scanned of a constructed or well-defined global emissions profile

  2. How reliably can climate change and mitigation policy impacts on electric utilities be assessed?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kopp, R.J.; Palmer, K.; De Witt, D.

    1993-01-01

    Numerous mechanisms link climate change and electric utilities. Electricity generation releases radiatively active trace substances (RATS). Significant changes in atmospheric concentration of RATS can lead to a change in regional and global climate regimes. Mitigation action designed to prevent or limit climate change is possible through curbing emissions. Climate change and related mitigation actions impact on electric utilities. Foresight in electric utility planning requires reliable predictions of how the utilities may be affected in the decades ahead. In this paper the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies are noted, and our ability to assess these is reviewed. To this end a suite of models exploring supply and demand questions have been developed. The overall conclusion of the study is that the demand-side uncertainties dominate other unknowns and need to be better characterized and understood. (author)

  3. The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woersdoerfer, Mechthild [Directorate-General for Energy European Commission, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-05-01

    In the light of experiences and lessons learnt from current energy and climate policies and the changing economic and energy market context, the Commission proposed a new framework for climate and energy policies for the period until 2030 on which the European Council reached an agreement on October 24, 2014. The framework is structured around four headline targets: a binding EU level target for domestic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 40 % compared to 1990 levels; a binding EU level target for the share of renewable energy of at least 27 %; an indicative EU level target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 27 % and an objective for electricity interconnections of 15 % in 2030.

  4. The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woersdoerfer, Mechthild

    2015-01-01

    In the light of experiences and lessons learnt from current energy and climate policies and the changing economic and energy market context, the Commission proposed a new framework for climate and energy policies for the period until 2030 on which the European Council reached an agreement on October 24, 2014. The framework is structured around four headline targets: a binding EU level target for domestic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 40 % compared to 1990 levels; a binding EU level target for the share of renewable energy of at least 27 %; an indicative EU level target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 27 % and an objective for electricity interconnections of 15 % in 2030.

  5. Economics, ethics, and climate policy: framing the debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, Richard B.; Monahan, Patricia A.

    1996-04-01

    This paper examines the economic and ethical dimensions of climate policy in light of existing knowledge of the impacts of global warming and the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement. We find that the criterion of economic efficiency, operationalized through cost-benefit analysis, is ill-equipped to cope with the pervasive uncertainties and issues of intergenerational fairness that characterize climate change. In contrast, the concept of sustainable development—that today's policies should ensure that future generations enjoy life opportunities undiminished relative to the present—is a normative criterion that explicitly addresses the uncertainties and distributional aspects of global environmental change. If one interprets the sustainability criterion to imply that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  6. NGO and industry perspectives on energy and climate change policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hornung, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper highlighted the clear contradiction between projected business as usual energy development in Canada and its climate change commitments. It was cautioned that these contradictions can only be resolved by actively incorporating climate change considerations into energy policies and by making efforts to promote energy efficiency and investment in renewable energy technologies. Canada's commitments to the Kyoto Protocol seem to be inconsistent with the ongoing policy of exporting greater amounts of oil and gas to the United States. In the short-term, the author advocates the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and supports the debate on how the cost of meeting greenhouse gas commitments should be distributed, and how they can be minimized

  7. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  8. The Brazilian Policy on Climate Change: Regulatory and Governance Aspects

    OpenAIRE

    Ronaldo Seroa da Motta

    2012-01-01

    Through the Copenhagen Accord and the Conference of the Parties (COP 16) in Cancun, Brazil has confirmed its national voluntary reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with reductions between 36.1 per cent and 38.9 per cent of projected emissions by 2020. These targets were defined in the National Climate Change Policy (PNMC, in Portuguese) approved by the National Congress (Law No. 12.187, dated 29 December 2009). These national targets focus on controlling deforestation, which...

  9. Ocean carbon sinks and international climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S.J.; Wetzel, Patrick

    2006-01-01

    Terrestrial vegetation sinks have entered the Kyoto Protocol as offsets for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but ocean sinks have escaped attention. Ocean sinks are as unexplored and uncertain as were the terrestrial sinks at the time of negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol. It is not unlikely that certain countries will advocate the inclusion of ocean carbon sinks to reduce their emission reduction obligations in post-2012 negotiations. We use a simple model of the international market for carbon dioxide emissions to evaluate who would gain or loose from allowing for ocean carbon sinks. Our analysis is restricted to information on anthropogenic carbon sequestration within the exclusive economic zone of a country. We use information on the actual carbon flux and derive the human-induced uptake for the period from 1990 onwards. Like the carbon sequestration of business as usual forest management activities, natural ocean carbon sequestration applies at zero costs. The total amount of anthropogenic ocean carbon sequestration is large, also in the exclusive economic zones. As a consequence, it substantially alters the costs of emission reduction for most countries. Countries such as Australia, Denmark, France, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway and Portugal would gain substantially, and a large number of countries would benefit too. Current net exporters of carbon permits, particularly Russia, would gain less and oppose the inclusion of ocean carbon sinks

  10. Agricultural policy environmental eXtender model simulation of climate change impacts on runoff from a small no-till watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term hydrologic data sets are required to quantify the impacts of management, and climate on runoff at the field scale where management practices are applied. This study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of long-term management and climate on runoff from a small watershed managed with no-ti...

  11. White Paper No 21 (2011-2012). Norwegian Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The Norwegian Government intends to take a number of steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote technological advances. Some of the most important are: establishing a new climate and energy fund, raising the CO 2 tax rate for the offshore industry, and improving public transport. The white paper keeps to the targets set out in the 2008 agreement on climate policy. Measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be implemented in most sectors in Norway. A climate and energy fund will be established for the development of emission reduction technology. The CO 2 tax on emissions from Norway's offshore petroleum production will rise by Nok 200 per tonne, giving operating companies a stronger incentive to use electricity generated onshore. The Government will also focus on public transport, energy-efficient housing and forest-related measures to maintain and increase CO 2 uptake.(Author)

  12. Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy

  13. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-19

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

  14. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  15. Time for Change? Climate Science Reconsidered: Report of the UCL Policy Commission on Communicating Climate Science, 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Rapley, C. G.; De Meyer, K.; Carney, J.; Clarke, R.; Howarth, C.; Smith, N.; Stilgoe, J.; Youngs, S.; Brierley, C.; Haugvaldstad, A.; Lotto, B.; Michie, S.; Shipworth, M.; Tuckett, D.

    2014-01-01

    The UCL Policy Commission on the Communication of Climate Science, chaired by Professor Chris Rapley comprises a cross-disciplinary project group of researchers from psychology, neuroscience, science and technology studies, earth sciences and energy research. The Commission examined the challenges faced in communicating climate science effectively to policy-makers and the public, and the role of climate scientists in communication. / The Commission explored the role of climate scientists in c...

  16. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebler, Michael [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany); Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Environmental Economics and World Trade; Loeschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  17. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huebler, Michael

    2014-01-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  18. SUSTAINING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION—POLICY, TECHNOLOGY, AND SOCIETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Rechkemmer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In a world that is becoming more and more exposed and vulnerable to the effects of global climate change, combining integrated risk assessment tools with effective strategies for both mitigation and adaptation is a key prerogative for policy-making. With the focus of both researchers and decision-makers gradually shifting from observing and assessing the bio-physical aspects of climate change to a more human and society centered understanding of the nature of the problem, the social, behavioral, economic and technological aspects have entered center stage of the public discourse. Responses to the climate change challenge have to establish an optimal interplay between mitigation, adaptation and socio-economic instruments. Yet, given the band-width and scale of the climate problematique and its projected impacts, very ambitious mitigation measures have to be undertaken without delays, a fact that is particularly true for emerging economies with their very rapid and unprecedented growth rates, both in GDP and GHG emissions terms. The challenge for the next years is to harmonize poverty eradication and attaining the Millenium Development Goals through stable economic growth with mitigating the effects of climate change. Therefore, “inclusive green growth” has become the motto of the day. But how can this goal be achieved? Obviously, quite fundamental changes have to be introduced that affect both the production and the consumption sectors and allow for real innovation in technologies and energy, in urban mobility, infrastructure and transportation grids. This paper illustrates the deep social and societal nature of climate change response strategies, especially in the area of mitigation, and shows that transitions to green and low-carbon economies will have to embed policies, incentive schemes and economic instruments in a larger societal context of social learning and behavioral change.

  19. Free Markets, Property Rights and Climate Change: How to Privatize Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham Dawson

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The goal has been to devise a strategy that protects as much as possible the rights and liberties of all agents, both users of fossil fuels and people whose livelihoods and territories are at risk if the anthropogenic global warming (AGW hypothesis is true. To achieve this goal the standard climate policy instruments, taxes and emissions trading, should be discontinued. There are weaknesses in the theoretical perspectives used to justify these policy instruments and climate science cannot provide the knowledge that would be needed to justify their implementation. In their place I propose a privatised policy, based on Austrian and libertarian frameworks of thought, which share an interpretation of climate change as a putative interpersonal conflict rather than market failure. The use of fossil fuels, like any other economic activity, should be subject to side-constraints designed to avoid the infringement of other people’s property rights. Tort litigation on the basis of strict liability would protect these rights, insofar as they need protecting. By providing a public arena for the competitive testing of scientific hypotheses concerning climate change, such litigation would also promote the public understanding and even the advancement of climate science.

  20. Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    of the orbital variations on Earth's climate; however, the knowledge and tools needed to complete a unied theory for ice ages have not been developed yet. Here, we focus on the climatic variations that have occurred over the last few million years. Paleoclimatic records show that the glacial cycles are linked...... to those present in the astronomical forcing. We shall do this in terms of a general framework of conceptual dynamical models, which may or may not exhibit internal self-sustained oscillations. We introduce and discuss two distinct mechanisms for a periodic response at a dierent period to a periodic...

  1. Chinas carbon-intensity target: climate actors and policy developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stensdal, Iselin

    2012-11-01

    China has become the largest GHG emitting country, and announced in 2009 its first policy objective measured in carbon emissions. The carbon-intensity target is to reduce the carbon intensity by 40-45 % by 2020 compared to 200 levels. Since then there has been further policy developments in order to attain the reduction carbon intensity and steer China towards a low-carbon development. The 12th 5-year plan (2011-2015) is strong on incentives for reducing China's carbon intensity such as energy conservation measures and the establishment of new market-based mechanisms. While the central government forms the policies, the implementation is dependent on a range of actors. In addition to the climate change bureaucracy, the positive forces and actors on GHG mitigation is presented. All in all, there are promising developments in China for the years to come.(auth)

  2. Intervention model in organizational climate

    OpenAIRE

    Cárdenas Niño, Lucila; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Arciniegas Rodríguez, Yuly Cristina; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Barrera Cárdenas, Mónica; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess whether the intervention model in organizational climate PMCO, was effective in the Hospital of Yopal, Colombia. The following five phases, proposed by the model, were implemented: 1) problem analysis, 2) awareness, 3) strategies design and planning, at the individual, intergroup, and organizational levels, 4) implementation of the strategy, and 5) process evaluation. A design composed of two groups, experimental and control, was chosen, analyzing whether t...

  3. Forks in the Road. Alternative Routes for International Climate Policies and their Implications for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slingerland, S.; Meyer, L.; Van Vuuren, D.; Den Elzen, M.

    2011-11-01

    Several scenarios are possible for future international climate policies, each with a different role in the climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These scenarios assume policies that are comparable to the current policies, as well as more fragmented and more integrated international climate policies. The various alternative routes have been assessed with respect to their potential consequences. These assessments showed that none of the proposed routes could fully replace the current negotiation process under the UNFCCC, but rather that they could contribute to generating societal support for future climate policies. In addition, the report presents an analysis of how the Netherlands could use this development of alternative routes for international climate policy. Possible responses by the Netherlands to each of these scenarios would depend on the degree to which climate change as a policy topic is considered a priority in the Netherlands.

  4. ''Measuring the Costs of Climate Change Policies''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montgomery, W. D.; Smith, A. E.; Biggar, S. L.; Bernstein, P.M.

    2003-05-09

    Studies of the costs of climate change policies have utilized a variety of measures or metrics for summarizing costs. The leading economic models have utilized GNP, GDP, the ''area under a marginal cost curve,'' the discounted present value of consumption, and a welfare measure taken directly from the utility function of the model's representative agent (the ''Equivalent Variation''). Even when calculated using a single model, these metrics do not necessarily give similar magnitudes of costs or even rank policies consistently. This paper discusses in non-technical terms the economic concepts lying behind each concept, the theoretical basis for expecting each measure to provide a consistent ranking of policies, and the reasons why different measures provide different rankings. It identifies a method of calculating the ''Equivalent Variation'' as theoretically superior to the other cost metrics in ranking policies. When regulators put forward new economic or regulatory policies, there is a need to compare the costs and benefits of these new policies to existing policies and other alternatives to determine which policy is most cost-effective. For command and control policies, it is quite difficult to compute costs, but for more market-based policies, economists have had a great deal of success employing general equilibrium models to assess a policy's costs. Not all cost measures, however, arrive at the same ranking. Furthermore, cost measures can produce contradictory results for a specific policy. These problems make it difficult for a policy-maker to determine the best policy. For a cost measures to be of value, one would like to be confident of two things. First one wants to be sure whether the policy is a winner or loser. Second, one wants to be confident that a measure produces the correct policy ranking. That is, one wants to have confidence in a policy measure's ability to correctly rank

  5. Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

    2007-01-01

    The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

  6. United States policy for mitigating global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, P.; Kane, R.; Kildow, J.

    1998-01-01

    The primary objective of this paper is to explain current US policy on global climate change. US Department of Energy (DOE) efforts to implement this policy are described. A secondary objective of this paper is to discuss from a US perspective the social and political efforts which must be initiated in order for ocean storage of CO 2 to be considered as a viable CO 2 mitigation option. The fact that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has not been successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now recognized. Thus, US policy has shifted towards the development of binding medium-term emissions targets and long-term atmosphere concentration goals. The US believes these goals can be accomplished through the adoption of cost-effective joint implementation agreements and international emissions trading mechanisms. Studies are currently underway to assess specific targets and timetables for emissions reductions. Voluntary efforts on the part of US industry have proven to be extremely successful in reducing US CO 2 -emissions. The US electric utility industry has taken the lead in voluntarily lowering greenhouse gas emissions under the DOE Climate Challenge Program. Areas of research interest to DOE include the development of high efficiency advanced power generation cycles and CO 2 sequestration technology. The US currently spends $1.6 billion on understanding global climate phenomena and only $1.6 million on CO 2 mitigation research. A number of socio-political considerations must be looked at in assessing the feasibility of ocean storage of CO 2 . Developing public trust appears to be a major concern in establishing the acceptability of ocean storage. Uncertainties in the effects of CO 2 on marine life, potential safety hazards associated with pipelining, and ship transport of CO 2 are all issues which must be dealt with as soon as possible. Some hidden costs associated with ocean disposal is also discussed

  7. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  8. The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommenget, D.

    2013-12-01

    The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

  9. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  10. Climate change policy instruments in a least regrets context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenstra, W.J.; Bonney, M. [Ministry of Housing, The Hague (Netherlands). Spatial Planning and Environment

    1995-12-31

    The Dutch CO{sub 2} target - which was set down in the National Environmental Policy Plan Plus (NMP-plus) and sent to Parliament in 1990 - is to reduce emissions by 3 to 5 % in 2000 relative to 1989/1990. The second National Environmental Policy Plan (NMP-2), issued in December 1993, confirmed this target but also concluded that policies will have to be enhanced and additional measures taken in order to achieve it. The measures developed in NMP-plus assumed that real energy prices would rise substantially during the 1990`s. However, the prices are at their lowest level since the early 1970`s and official projections now assume that real energy prices will remain more or less constant between 1990 and 2000. Under these conditions, application of existing policy instruments will have to be intensified and additional policy instruments will have to be deployed in order to attain even the 3 % emission reduction target for CO{sub 2}. In December 1993 the Government`s second National Environmental Policy Plan and second Memorandum on Energy Conservation indicated how policy efforts in the area of climate change will be enhanced. Targets were set for improving energy efficiency in different sectors in the period 1989-2000: 23 % for households, 23 % for non-residential buildings, 19 % for industry, 26 % for agriculture, 10 % for transport and 26 % for power stations. The overall efficiency improvement (including renewables) will lead to energy consumption of 2865 PJ in 2000 (550 PJ less than what it would have been without the policy measures; slightly more than what it was in 1990). Energy efficiency (including renewables) will be responsible for roughly two thirds of the CO{sub 2} reduction needed, with the remainder coming from transport, recycling, reduced coal use, afforestation and structural changes

  11. Climate change policy instruments in a least regrets context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenstra, W J; Bonney, M [Ministry of Housing, The Hague (Netherlands). Spatial Planning and Environment

    1996-12-31

    The Dutch CO{sub 2} target - which was set down in the National Environmental Policy Plan Plus (NMP-plus) and sent to Parliament in 1990 - is to reduce emissions by 3 to 5 % in 2000 relative to 1989/1990. The second National Environmental Policy Plan (NMP-2), issued in December 1993, confirmed this target but also concluded that policies will have to be enhanced and additional measures taken in order to achieve it. The measures developed in NMP-plus assumed that real energy prices would rise substantially during the 1990`s. However, the prices are at their lowest level since the early 1970`s and official projections now assume that real energy prices will remain more or less constant between 1990 and 2000. Under these conditions, application of existing policy instruments will have to be intensified and additional policy instruments will have to be deployed in order to attain even the 3 % emission reduction target for CO{sub 2}. In December 1993 the Government`s second National Environmental Policy Plan and second Memorandum on Energy Conservation indicated how policy efforts in the area of climate change will be enhanced. Targets were set for improving energy efficiency in different sectors in the period 1989-2000: 23 % for households, 23 % for non-residential buildings, 19 % for industry, 26 % for agriculture, 10 % for transport and 26 % for power stations. The overall efficiency improvement (including renewables) will lead to energy consumption of 2865 PJ in 2000 (550 PJ less than what it would have been without the policy measures; slightly more than what it was in 1990). Energy efficiency (including renewables) will be responsible for roughly two thirds of the CO{sub 2} reduction needed, with the remainder coming from transport, recycling, reduced coal use, afforestation and structural changes

  12. Introduction to the Special Issue on Climate Ethics: Uncertainty, Values and Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Roeser, S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach. This special issue will identify the main challenges that climate change poses from social, economic, methodological ...

  13. Climate change and protected area policy and planning in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, D. [Canada Research Chairs, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Lemieux, C. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography

    2005-10-01

    Challenges concerning climate change for agencies involved the management of Canada's protected areas were reviewed. Most protected areas have been designed to represent specific natural features, species and ecological communities, and are the most common and most important strategy for biodiversity conservation. It remains undecided whether adaptation should be a matter of responding to climate change as it manifests, or whether initiatives should be taken in advance to anticipate the potential effects of climate change. There are growing concerns that emergency adaptation will be less effective and more costly than anticipatory or precautionary adaptation over the long-term. Species extinction could result. It was noted that the northward shift of species from the United States will meet Parks Canada's existing definition of alien species in need of management interventions. The conservation objectives of individual protected areas would also be affected by projected biome and species changes, particularly as each of Canada's national parks is responsible for protecting ecosystems representative of the natural region within which it is located. All 6 vegetation change scenarios examined in a recent study projected the eventual loss of boreal forest in the Prince Albert National Park, suggesting that the park's current mandate to protect the ecological integrity of the area would no longer be viable. An overview of the policy and planning implications of climate change for protected areas in Canada was presented using examples from national and provincial park systems. A portfolio of climate change adaptation options in conservation literature was reviewed. Recommended strategies included system planning and policy development; active, adaptive ecosystem management; research and monitoring; and capacity building and awareness. It was concluded that governments will need to make major new investments in protected area establishment, personnel

  14. Modeling Two Types of Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-live...

  15. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miaomiao Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn’t been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763 from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health, psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high–tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use and one adaption policy (increasing resilience brought positive co–benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.

  16. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L; Sabel, Clive E

    2016-03-21

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn't been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high-tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co-benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.

  17. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  18. Long-term climate policy implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Piontek, Franziska; Bertram, Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar

    2014-01-01

    It is often argued that fossil fuel subsidies hamper the transition towards a sustainable energy supply as they incentivize wasteful consumption. We assess implications of a subsidy phase-out for the mitigation of climate change and the low-carbon transformation of the energy system, using the global energy–economy model REMIND. We compare our results with those obtained by the International Energy Agency (based on the World Energy Model) and by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD-Model ENV-Linkages), providing the long-term perspective of an intertemporal optimization model. The results are analyzed in the two dimensions of subsidy phase-out and climate policy scenarios. We confirm short-term benefits of phasing-out fossil fuel subsidies as found in prior studies. However, these benefits are only sustained to a small extent in the long term, if dedicated climate policies are weak or nonexistent. Most remarkably we find that a removal of fossil fuel subsidies, if not complemented by other policies, can slow down a global transition towards a renewable based energy system. The reason is that world market prices for fossil fuels may drop due to a removal of subsidies. Thus, low carbon alternatives would encounter comparative disadvantages. - Highlights: • We assess implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the mitigation of climate change. • The removal of subsidies leads to a net-reduction in the use of energy. • Emission reductions contribute little to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm if not combined with climate policies. • Low carbon alternatives may encounter comparative disadvantages due to relative price changes at world markets

  19. Monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment: The case of oil-exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waisman, Henri; Rozenberg, Julie; Hourcade, Jean Charles

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the Kyoto Protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies. The amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under international climate policy and the macroeconomic effect of carbon pricing on Middle-East's economy. We show that compensating the drop of exportation revenues does not offset GDP and welfare losses because of the time profile of the general equilibrium effects. When considering instead compensation based on GDP losses, the effectiveness of monetary transfers proves to be drastically limited by general equilibrium effects in opened economies. The main channels of this efficiency gap are investigated and its magnitude proves to be conditional upon strategic and policy choices of the Middle-East. This leads us to suggest that other means than direct monetary compensating transfers should be discussed to engage the Middle-East in climate policies. - Highlights: • We endogenize the interplay between climate policy, oil markets and the macroeconomy. • We quantify the transfers to compensate climate policy losses in oil-exporting countries. • We assess the general equilibrium effect of monetary transfers in opened economies. • The macroeconomic efficiency of transfers is altered by general equilibrium effects. • Monetary compensation schemes are not efficient for oil exporters in climate policy

  20. Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

    1998-01-01

    Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

  1. The institutional economics of market-based climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woerdman, E.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this book is to analyze the institutional barriers to implementing market-based climate policy, as well as to provide some opportunities to overcome them. The approach is that of institutional economics, with special emphasis on political transaction costs and path dependence. Instead of rejecting the neoclassical approach, this book uses it where fruitful and shows when and why it is necessary to employ a new or neo-institutionalist approach. The result is that equity is considered next to efficiency, that the evolution and possible lock-in of both formal and informal climate institutions are studied, and that attention is paid to the politics and law of economic instruments for climate policy, including some new empirical analyses. The research topics of this book include the set-up costs of a permit trading system, the risk that credit trading becomes locked-in, the potential legal problem of grandfathering in terms of actional subsidies under WTO law or state aid under EC law, and the changing attitudes of various European officials towards restricting the use of the Kyoto Mechanisms

  2. Japan after the Quake: Prospects for climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luta, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The triple calamity of 11 March 2011 has dealt a serious blow domestically to the credibility of the Japanese nuclear industry, putting the country's energy policy in flux.The severe impact on the country's infrastructure, the unwieldiness of its bureaucracy and the chaotic political situation preclude Japan's energy policy from explicitly re-orientating itself before the middle of 2012, but political consensus seems to be emerging that the country's mid-term pledge on emission reductions will need to be curtailed.The bill on renewable energy passed under Prime Minister Kan marked a step in the right direction, but was shallow and politically opportunistic. Its future impact on policy is uncertain.With other policy instruments on climate proposed by the Democratic Party of Japan toothless or abandoned, Tokyo's ability to engage in significant mitigation activities domestically is in question.Opposition to a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol remains firm; Japan will continue to pursue bilateral mechanisms outside the UNFCCC framework.Given its frail domestic policy and a stated readiness to act internationally outside multilateral frameworks, Japan's promise to carry out significant mitigation activities even in the absence of a clear and comprehensive post-2012 legal instrument should be viewed with a critical eye.(Author)

  3. Japan after the Quake: Prospects for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luta, Alexandru

    2011-07-01

    The triple calamity of 11 March 2011 has dealt a serious blow domestically to the credibility of the Japanese nuclear industry, putting the country's energy policy in flux.The severe impact on the country's infrastructure, the unwieldiness of its bureaucracy and the chaotic political situation preclude Japan's energy policy from explicitly re-orientating itself before the middle of 2012, but political consensus seems to be emerging that the country's mid-term pledge on emission reductions will need to be curtailed.The bill on renewable energy passed under Prime Minister Kan marked a step in the right direction, but was shallow and politically opportunistic. Its future impact on policy is uncertain.With other policy instruments on climate proposed by the Democratic Party of Japan toothless or abandoned, Tokyo's ability to engage in significant mitigation activities domestically is in question.Opposition to a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol remains firm; Japan will continue to pursue bilateral mechanisms outside the UNFCCC framework.Given its frail domestic policy and a stated readiness to act internationally outside multilateral frameworks, Japan's promise to carry out significant mitigation activities even in the absence of a clear and comprehensive post-2012 legal instrument should be viewed with a critical eye.(Author)

  4. From macroeconomics of energy-climate policies to the convergence between climate and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine

    2016-01-01

    After a brief presentation of her research curriculum, an indication of her various publications and contributions to conferences, the author presents her expertise works and her participation to national and international projects such as: Fairness in the post-2030 climatic regime, Towards an energetic autonomy in island and isolated territories, scenarios under a carbon constraint, comparative analysis of tools of implementation of multilateral agreements on the environment, mechanism for a clean development and domestic measures, Deep De-carbonation Pathway Project or DDPP, EncilowCarb engaging civil society in low carbon scenarios, climate and development or how to re-conciliate environmental constraints and national development policies, Developmental additionnality of the Clean Development Mechanism and public aid to development. In the next part, she proposes an overview of her research works by distinguishing two directions: a macro-economic analysis of climate policies integrating second raw elements (Imaclim-R France), and strategies of struggle against climate change integrated into development policies. In a third part, she discusses research perspectives regarding energy transition and natural resources, mankind in the energy transition, and the citizen (scenarios, democracy and energy transition) [fr

  5. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

    2003-01-01

    A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

  6. Climate change policies analysis of sectoral changes in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbier, C.; Baron, R.; Colombier, M.; Boemare, C.

    2004-01-01

    This study addresses the following question, at the core of Europe's climate policy: Beyond the question of the European Union's ability to meet its emissions commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, are sectoral emissions trends displaying structural changes deemed necessary to reduce emissions, and to attain levels that are consistent with the UNFCCC greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation objectives? What lessons can we draw from emissions trends for the EU future climate policy? Greenhouse gas emissions have been stable for the last decade, but mostly due to events and policy developments unrelated to climate policy, and unlikely to be reproduced in other countries: Germany's reunification, substitution from coal to gas in the United Kingdom driven by power market reform. We should not expect changes of such magnitude in the near future. The issue of our future climate policy hence requires a closer look at underlying trends. Industry's direct emissions decreased thanks to constant improvements in energy efficiency and to the substitution of electricity to direct fossil fuel use. In spite of efficiency gains in the residential sector, increasing floor space and level of equipment entail growing energy consumption. Smaller-size households are now spreading to Southern European countries and should be expected in new Member states as well. Turning to the tertiary/services sector, we find that value added and floor space grew significantly over the decade - 35% and 32% respectively in the EU-15. There again, energy efficiency improvements do not compensate for growing floor spaces. Transport's growth, especially freight, has been significant in all countries. The highest rates of traffic growth per unit of gross domestic product are in Spain and Portugal, two countries where rail infrastructure is fairly limited. CO 2 emissions from transport grew by 18% in the EU between 1990 and 2000. Power generation's CO 2 emissions have decreased slightly in spite of strong

  7. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  8. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  9. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  10. Ancillary benefits of climate policy in a small open economy: The case of Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krook Riekkola, Anna; Ahlgren, Erik O.; Soederholm, Patrik

    2011-01-01

    It is increasingly recognised that GHG reduction policies can have important ancillary benefits in the form of positive local and regional environmental impacts. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the domestic ancillary pollution benefits of climate policy in Sweden, and investigate how these are affected by different climate policy designs. The latter differ primarily in terms of how the country chooses to meet a specific target and where the necessary emission reductions take place. The analysis relies on simulations within the energy system optimisation model TIMES-Sweden, and focuses on four non-GHG pollutants: Nitrogen Oxides (NO X ), Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC), inhalable particles (PM 2.5 ), and Sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ). The simulations permit detailed assessments of the respective technology and fuel choices that underlie any net changes in the estimated ancillary effects. The results indicate that the ancillary benefits constitute a far from insignificant share of total system costs, and this share appears to be highest in the scenarios that entail the largest emission reductions domestically. This result reflects the fact that carbon dioxide emission reductions abroad also implies a lost opportunity of achieving substantial domestic welfare gain from the reductions of regional and local environmental pollutants. - Highlights: → We estimate the domestic ancillary pollution benefits of climate policy in Sweden. → These constitute a sizeable share of total system costs. → The ancillary benefits are highest in the policy scenarios that entail the largest emission reductions domestically.

  11. Climate Policy in Terms of Open Energy Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granic, G.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the objectives and approach to the climate policy impact analysis on the development of energy sector. The analysis included the goals for CO2 emission reduction until 2050, by sectors and in total, with reference to last 5-10 years. The analysis of energy market development in terms of CO2 emission reduction is given, and also the analysis of the final consumption for Croatia in period until 2050. The analysis of measures, of the manner in which the measures are carried out and of the potential of measures for CO2 emission reduction is presented. Estimations of economic and financial indicators for measurement implementation are given. Technological, energy, economic, organizational and institutional limitations are specifically analysed as part of objectives realisation of CO2 emission reduction, as is the risk of measurement implementation. The important parts of CO2 emission reduction policy are: technological development, expectations and possible risks of not achieving the set objectives. The important assumption of CO2 emission reduction objective realisation is institutional organisation of creation of energy policy and measurement implementation, in which the important measure is the forming of Ministry of energy, environment protection and climate change. At the end, recommendations are given, based on the performed analysis. (author).

  12. EU policy options for climate and energy beyond 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koelemeijer, R.; Ros, J.; Notenboom, J.; Boot, P. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Groenenberg, H.; Winkel, T. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-05-15

    In 2009, the EU climate and energy package with targets for 2020 (the so-called 20-20-20 targets) were formulated. For the period after 2020, however, there are no legally binding targets at the EU level, except for a decreasing ETS cap which will not be sufficient in light of the ambition for 2050. This leads to uncertainty for market players, as project lead times are long and high upfront investments need to deliver returns well beyond 2020. In its Green Paper on a 2030 framework for climate and energy policies, the European Commission recognised the need for clarity regarding the post-2020 policy framework. Currently under discussion is whether the approach for 2020 should be continued towards 2030 in the form of three more stringent targets or that other approaches would be more appropriate. Within this context, the Dutch Government asked PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Ecofys for advice. PBL and Ecofys have subsequently analysed possible options for an EU policy framework for 2030 that will steer towards a low-carbon economy by 2050 in a cost-effective way.

  13. How the Timing of Climate Change Policy Affects Infrastructure Turnover in the Electricity Sector: Engineering, Economic and Policy Considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izard, Catherine Finlay

    The electricity sector is responsible for producing 35% of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates suggest that ideally, the electricity sector would be responsible for approximately 85% of emissions abatement associated with climate polices such as America's Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). This is equivalent to ˜50% cumulative emissions reductions below projected cumulative business-as-usual (BAU) emissions. Achieving these levels of emissions reductions will require dramatic changes in the US electricity generating infrastructure: almost all of the fossil-generation fleet will need to be replaced with low-carbon sources and society is likely to have to maintain a high build rate of new capacity for decades. Unfortunately, the inertia in the electricity sector means that there may be physical constraints to the rate at which new electricity generating capacity can be built. Because the build rate of new electricity generating capacity may be limited, the timing of regulation is critical---the longer the U.S. waits to start reducing GHG emissions, the faster the turnover in the electricity sector must occur in order to meet the same target. There is a real, and thus far unexplored, possibility that the U.S. could delay climate change policy implementation for long enough that it becomes infeasible to attain the necessary rate of turnover in the electricity sector. This dissertation investigates the relationship between climate policy timing and infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector. The goal of the dissertation is to answer the question: How long can we wait before constraints on infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector make achieving our climate goals impossible? Using the Infrastructure Flow Assessment Model, which was developed in this work, this dissertation shows that delaying climate change policy increases average retirements rates by 200-400%, increases average construction rates by 25-85% and increases maximum construction

  14. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance. The LinkS Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-07-01

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus on energy policy measures within the EY with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 20 percent by 2020 as compared to the as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced it GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 20 percent of the energy must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 per sent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order to highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based on supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all Eu Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  15. December 2012 Policy Update: School Climate and Bully Prevention Trends State-by-State Assessment. School Climate Brief, Number 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellizio, Dan

    2012-01-01

    This December 2012 Brief updates NSCC's 2011 report "State Policies on School Climate and Bully Prevention Efforts: Challenges and Opportunities for Deepening State Policy Support for Safe and Civil School"s (www.schoolclimate.org/climate/papers-briefs.php). This Brief provides a summary of State level: (1) anti-bullying legislation; (2)…

  16. Climate policy. Objectives, conflicts, solutions; Klimapolitik. Ziele, Konflikte, Loesungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar [TU Berlin (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer die Oekonomie des Klimawandels; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany); Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimaforschung (Germany); Jakob, Michael [Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany)

    2017-07-01

    Extreme temperatures and deaths in Pakistan, floods in Russia, draughts in California, melting glaciers, harvest losses and a century vine in the Rheingau 2015: the consequences of the climatic change can be observed on all continents and oceans. The international climate politics has installed the intergovernmental panel on climate change that is of fundamental importance for political agenda. Up to now mankind has little experience with the fair and efficient use of common assets. Therefore climate policy is of special importance for international cooperation. [German] Hitzetote in Pakistan, Ueberschwemmungen in Russland, Duerren in Kalifornien, schmelzende Gletscher, Ernteverluste und ein Jahrhundertwein im Rheingau 2015: Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels lassen sich bereits auf allen Kontinenten und in allen Ozeanen beobachten. Die internationale Klimapolitik hat sich im Weltklimarat ein einzigartiges Gremium geschaffen, das fuer die Agenda der Politik von grundlegender Bedeutung ist. Noch hat die Menschheit wenig Erfahrung mit der gerechten und effizienten Nutzung globaler Gemeinschaftsgueter. Daher kommt der Klimapolitik eine besondere Bedeutung zu, denn sie hat fuer die internationale Kooperation auf vielen Feldern eine Vorbildfunktion.

  17. Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

  18. Climate policy and the intertemporal supply of fossil resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beermann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    This thesis was written by Christian Beermann while he was a research assistant at the Center for Economic Studies (CES) at the University of Munich. It was completed in December 2014 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich in May 2015. The thesis analyses the intertemporal supply reaction of the fossil resource supply side to demand-reducing climate policies while explicitly taking into account the global warming problem. The interaction between a climate coalition that can either be global or incomplete, comprising only a subset of the world's countries in the latter case, and a representative competitive resource supplier is analysed in a Stackelberg differential game in which the coalition leads.

  19. Climate policy and the intertemporal supply of fossil resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beermann, Christian

    2015-05-13

    This thesis was written by Christian Beermann while he was a research assistant at the Center for Economic Studies (CES) at the University of Munich. It was completed in December 2014 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich in May 2015. The thesis analyses the intertemporal supply reaction of the fossil resource supply side to demand-reducing climate policies while explicitly taking into account the global warming problem. The interaction between a climate coalition that can either be global or incomplete, comprising only a subset of the world's countries in the latter case, and a representative competitive resource supplier is analysed in a Stackelberg differential game in which the coalition leads.

  20. Analysing countries' contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elzen, Michel den; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hoehne, Niklas; Trudinger, Cathy; Lowe, Jason; Matthews, Ben; Romstad, Bard; Pires de Campos, Christiano; Andronova, Natalia

    2005-01-01

    This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the 'Brazilian Proposal'). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change-from emissions of greenhouse gases alone-are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO 2 emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points

  1. A Unique Climate and Energy Policy - Key Problems and Possible Solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granic, G.

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyses problems of independent application of climate and energy policy. In order to accomplish the goals from The Paris Climate Agreement, an agreement about the goals and measures for climate preservation from 2015, a unique climate and energy policy is suggested, as well as the measures for the implementation of it. To achieve no CO2 and GHG emissions in the energy sector, to have it be completely market based, energy efficient and technologically approved, a unique climate and energy policy is a necessary option and the only viable option to accomplish previously agreed climate goals.(author).

  2. Promoting interactions between local climate change mitigation, sustainable energy development, and rural development policies in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streimikiene, Dalia; Baležentis, Tomas; Kriščiukaitienė, Irena

    2012-01-01

    Lithuania has developed several important climate change mitigation policy documents however there are no attempts in Lithuania to develop local climate change mitigation policies or to decentralize climate change mitigation policy. Seeking to achieve harmonization and decentralization of climate change mitigation and energy policies in Lithuania the framework for local climate change mitigation strategy need to be developed taking into account requirements, targets and measures set in national climate change mitigation and energy policy documents. The paper will describe how national climate change mitigation and energy policies can be implemented via local energy and climate change mitigation plans. The aim of the paper is to analyze the climate change mitigation policy and its relationship with policies promoting sustainable energy development in Lithuania and to present a framework for local approaches to climate change mitigation in Lithuania, in the context of the existing national and supra-national energy, climate change, and rural development policies. - Highlights: ► The framework for local energy action plans is offered. ► The structural support possibilities are assessed with respect to the Lithuanian legal base. ► The proposals are given for further promotion of sustainable energy at the local level.

  3. The European framework for energy and climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helm, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    European energy and climate change policy rests on two main pillars: the internal energy market (IEM), and the climate change package (CCP). The IEM aimed at third party access and unbundling, neglecting the physical infrastructure and the basis for asset valuations and hence the harmonisation of network charges. The Commission plans to complete the IEM by 2014—almost a quarter of a century after embarking on the policy. Yet even if all the IEM directives are implemented, the EU will remain far from a single competitive market. The CCP was grounded on short term targets (the 2020-20-20 programme) on the assumption that fossil fuel prices would rise, making renewables competitive, and hence yielding a competitive advantage to the EU. The EUETS was intended to lead the way to a global trading system and an international agreement at Copenhagen. The EU has reduced the production of carbon emissions, but only as a result of de-industrialisation and slow growth, and at the expense of rising carbon consumption. Renewables have not led to green growth, but rather to a further eroding of competitiveness. The EUETS price has collapsed. In order for the EU to put the IEM and the CCP back on track, both need to be radically reconsidered. The IEM requires a refocusing on physical infrastructure, common accounting rules and an EU-wide approach to capacity markets and renewables trading. The CCP requires a refocusing on carbon consumption, on limiting the dash-for-coal, and on future rather than current renewables. - Highlights: • The design of the internal energy market. • The design of the climate change package. • The interaction between the internal energy market and the climate change package. • Required reforms

  4. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  5. Protection of industry competitiveness, climate policy, and WTO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cros, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    This report analyses the possibilities left by the WTO to its members to compensate an additional cost which would result from a policy of struggle against climate change. In a first part, the author identifies the existing possibilities within WTO rules themselves: rules based of production processes, border tax adjustments, subsidies. In a second part, he questions the exception regime established by the GATT's article X X which allows under some circumstances some measures to be implemented which are not compliant with WTO rules

  6. Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykoff, M. T.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox

  7. Thirteen Plus One. A Comparison of Global Climate Policy Architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldy, J.E.; Barrett, S.; Stavins, R.N.

    2003-07-01

    We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is t oo little, too fast ; developing countries should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance

  8. Thirteen plus one. A comparison of global climate policy architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldy, Joseph E.; Barrett, Scott; Stavins, Robert N.

    2003-01-01

    We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is 'too little, too fast'; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance

  9. Energy Climate Change - Challenges and Prospects of the EU Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blecic, P.; Bosnjakovic, B.; Frankovic, B.

    2013-01-01

    The paper discusses the main challenges and prospects of EU policy in the field of energy and climate change, without going into technical details, but establishes the main themes of sustainability: economy, environment and new jobs. It describes the foundations and the objectives of the current EU energy policy, and the reasons why the current approach to reduction of greenhouse gases emissions is disappointing. Also, the question is whether EU will achieve the renewable energy goals for the year 2020. The security of energy supply and availability is also considered, especially in view of high dependence on import energy in the today fragmented market. For the way forward to mid-century, the targets to year 2030 are of critical importance. Also, the paper gives an overview of the state of renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions in Croatia.(author)

  10. Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies: What are the implications for economic efficiency, environmental efficacy, and climate policy design?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, Jesse D.

    2014-01-01

    Economists traditionally view a Pigouvian fee on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, either via carbon taxes or emissions caps and permit trading (“cap-and-trade”), as the economically optimal or “first-best” policy to address climate change-related externalities. Yet several political economy factors can severely constrain the implementation of these carbon pricing policies, including opposition of industrial sectors with a concentration of assets that would lose considerable value under such policies; the collective action nature of climate mitigation efforts; principal agent failures; and a low willingness-to-pay for climate mitigation by citizens. Real-world implementations of carbon pricing policies can thus fall short of the economically optimal outcomes envisioned in theory. Consistent with the general theory of the second-best, the presence of binding political economy constraints opens a significant “opportunity space” for the design of creative climate policy instruments with superior political feasibility, economic efficiency, and environmental efficacy relative to the constrained implementation of carbon pricing policies. This paper presents theoretical political economy frameworks relevant to climate policy design and provides corroborating evidence from the United States context. It concludes with a series of implications for climate policy making and argues for the creative pursuit of a mix of second-best policy instruments. - Highlights: • Political economy constraints can bind carbon pricing policies. • These constraints can prevent implementation of theoretically optimal carbon prices. • U.S. household willingness-to-pay for climate policy likely falls in the range of $80–$200 per year. • U.S. carbon prices may be politically constrained to as low as $2–$8 per ton of CO 2 . • An opportunity space exists for improvements in climate policy design and outcomes

  11. Climate change policy and international trade. Policy considerations in the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, Christopher L.; Peters, Glen P.

    2009-01-01

    Significant recent attention, in both research and policy realms, has been given to the intersection of international trade and global climate change. Trade presents challenges to climate policy through carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns, but also potential solutions through the use of cooperative trade agreements, technology transfer, or carbon tariffs against recalcitrant nations. This study examines how trade may affect climate policy in the US and specifically examines the use of carbon tariffs as suggested by recent bills before the US Congress. We argue that even if such actions are legal at the World Trade Organization, they are probably not necessary to protect industrial competitiveness in the traditional sense, could cover only a small proportion of total embodied emissions in trade, and may in fact be counterproductive at a moment when global cooperation is desperately needed. While political agreement may necessitate at least the threat of carbon tariffs, cooperative agreements such as global sectoral agreements, technology sharing, etc. could be more productive in the short term. (author)

  12. Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

    2018-01-01

    Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

  13. Benefits of European climate policies for mercury air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rafaj, P.; Cofala, J.; Kuenen, J.; Wyrwa, A.; Zyśk, J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and results of impact assessment of renewable energy policies on atmospheric emissions of mercury in Europe. The modeling exercise described here involves an interaction of several models. First, a set of energy scenarios has been developed with the REMix

  14. The Europeanization of German energy and climate policies. New forms of policy-making and EU multi-level-governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, Severin

    2015-01-01

    The Energy Transition (''Energiewende'') is one of the hot topics of the political debate in Germany for some years. As a consequence of ongoing European integration, EU level politics have gained growing importance. The focus of this study is on the interaction of German and EU energy and climate policies. How have German actors influenced EU policy-making processes and in how far are EU policies relevant for national policy-making in Germany? Three case studies look at processes in the fields of electricity market regulation, renewable energy policy and climate protection between 2007 and 2013.

  15. The effect of health benefits on climate change mitigation policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Magnus, J.R.; Sakamoto, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with eleven heterogeneous regions, with special emphasis on USA, Europe, China, India, and Africa. We introduce health impacts into a simple economic integrated assessment model where both the local cooling

  16. Madagascar's future climate change intensified actions and policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    or business as usual? Jean-Roger MercierI ... reduce its 2030 emissions by 64% compared to the 'Business As ..... tion of work in the global, climate-conscious digital economy. ... business models for the development and delivery of physical goods and services. The potential for deploying ICTs for innovative products ...

  17. Optimising Russian natural gas - reform and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-18

    The world's largest gas producer and exporter, Russia has an enormous energy saving potential. At least 30 billion cubic meters, a fifth of Russian exports to European OECD countries, could be saved every year by enhanced technology or energy efficiency. As the era of cheap gas in Russia comes to an end, this potential saving is increasingly important for Russians and importing countries. And, as domestic gas prices increase, efficiency investments will become increasingly economic - not to mention the incentive for Gazprom to enhance its efficiency against a backdrop of high European gas prices. The book analyzes and estimates the potential savings and the associated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the oil extraction (flaring), gas transmission, and distribution sectors. Achieving these savings will require linking long-standing energy efficiency goals with energy sector reforms, as well as climate policy objectives. The book also describes Russia's emerging climate policy and institutional framework, including work still ahead before the country is eligible for the Kyoto Protocol's flexibility mechanisms and can attract financing for greenhouse gas reductions. Stressed is the need for Russia to tap the full potential of energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions through a more competitive environment in the gas sector to attract timely investments.

  18. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  19. Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksson, S.

    2013-09-01

    Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy

  20. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    1996-01-01

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can't yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes

  1. Table of Policy Options for Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sortable table of policy options discussed in the publication Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience, which can help local governments prepare for climate change while gaining other environmental, economic, health, and social benefits

  2. Make way for the climate. National adaptation strategy. The policy paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-11-01

    The policy paper is a background document of the interdepartmental memorandum 'Make way for climate', in which the outline is described for a national strategy for adaptation to the consequences of climate change. [mk] [nl

  3. Phase Two European Energy Policy Project. European energy and climate policy - Time for something new

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helm, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    During 2014, European energy and climate change policy has moved centre stage. The annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of Eastern Ukraine have raised tensions with Russia to levels not seen since the Cold War. The EU has responded with an energy security plan, and sanctions. Developments elsewhere have further complicated matters. In the Middle East, the rapid advances of ISIS (now called the Islamic State), the internal conflicts in Libya, the war in Gaza, and the continuing negotiations with Iran on nuclear matters suggest that early optimism about the 'Arab Spring' was at best misplaced, and chronic instability has returned. In the US, the energy revolution continues to change the geopolitics of oil and gas, with the early skepticism about the scale of the changes and the shift towards North American energy independence giving way to recognition that the changes are permanent and profound - for both global energy markets and Europe. The full implications of the end of the commodity super-cycle are both profound for European energy policy and very poorly understood. Commodity prices have tumbled, with oil prices falling below $80 a barrel. On climate change, there is almost certainly not going to be a continuation of the Kyoto style international framework after the Paris conference in December 2015. Chinese emissions per head have now exceeded those of the Europeans, and it is at last being recognized that the climate change problem is one in which China, not the EU, is centre stage. China has announced that it does not intend to cap its carbon emissions until after 2030, by which time they may peak anyway - from a very much higher base after another decade and a half of increases. The Paris conference will see a series of 'pledges' and 'commitments' very much on the pattern of the Copenhagen Accord, not the credible, enforceable legally binding measures that had been proposed at the Durban Conference of the Parties in 2011

  4. A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermeling, Claudia; Löschel, Andreas; Mennel, Tim

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on Gauss Quadrature and applies it to check the robustness of a large-scale climate policy evaluation. The revised version of the Gauss-quadrature approach to sensitivity analysis reduces computations considerably vis-à-vis the commonly applied Monte-Carlo methods; this allows for a stochastic sensitivity analysis also for large scale models and multi-dimensional changes of parameters. In the application, an impact assessment of EU2020 climate policy, we focus on sectoral elasticities that are part of the basic parameters of the model and have been recently determined by econometric estimation, alongside with standard errors. The impact assessment is based on the large scale CGE model PACE. We show the applicability of the Gauss-quadrature approach and confirm the robustness of the impact assessment with the PACE model. The variance of the central model outcomes is smaller than their mean by order four to eight, depending on the aggregation level (i.e. aggregate variables such as GDP show a smaller variance than sectoral output). - Highlights: ► New, simplified method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for CGE analysis. ► Gauss quadrature with orthogonal polynomials. ► Application to climate policy—the case of the EU 2020 targets

  5. Policy progress in mitigation of climate change in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Jenn Jiang; Chang, Wei Ru

    2011-01-01

    To make an active contribution to the global effort in mitigation of climate change, Taiwan government has implemented the 'Frameworks for Sustainable Energy Policy-An Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reduction Action Plan' in June 2008. It has made a commitment of a stepwise reduction of nationwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which returns the nationwide GHG emission to 2008 levels by 2020, then reduces to 2000 levels by 2025, and finally cuts 50% of 2000 levels by 2050. The fundamental strategy is to reduce the GHG emission under acceptable economic development and energy security to achieve generation-spanning triple-win in energy, environment and economy. The major policy instruments such as 'Statute for Renewable Energy Development', 'GHG Reduction Law (draft),' 'Regulation for Energy Tax (draft),' and 'Energy Management Act' have been either implemented or scheduled for legislative reviewing. The purpose of this paper is to present an updated review of the outcomes of GHG emission reduction in Taiwan. In addition, the progress and priority of policy instruments in GHG emission reduction are analyzed as well. - Research highlights: →Taiwan has made a commitment of stepwise targets of GHG emission reduction to contribute to the global efforts in combating climate change in 2008. →The near-term target returns the nationwide GHG emissions back to 2008 levels during years of 2016-2020. Then, emission levels are cut to 2000 levels by 2025, and finally 50% of 2000 levels by 2050. →In addition to finish legislative review of the 'GHG Reduction Act', Taiwan has prepared a comprehensive action plan to reduce the national GHG emissions, involving improvement of the efficiency in energy use, development of the sustainable energy, and taxation of carbon on fossils.

  6. World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030. WETO 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Starting from a set of clear key assumptions on economic activity, population and hydrocarbon resources, WETO describes in detail scenarios for the evolution of World and European energy systems, power generation technologies and impacts of climate change policy in the main world regions or countries.It presents a coherent framework to analyse the energy, technology and environment trends and issues over the period to 2030, focusing on Europe in a world context. Three of the key results of this work are: (1) in a Reference scenario, i.e.if no strong specific policy initiatives and measures are taken, world CO2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 and, with a share of 90%, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy system; (2) the great majority of the increase in oil production will come from OPEC countries and the EU will rely predominantly on natural gas imported from the CIS; and (3) as the largest growing energy demand and CO2 emissions originate from developing countries (mainly China and India), Europe will have to intensify its co-operation, particularly in terms of transfer of technologies. The analysis of long-term scenarios and a particular attention to the energy world context, is an important element for efficient energy, technology and environment policies towards a sustainable world

  7. Fuel taxes: An important instrument for climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sterner, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    This article shows that fuel taxes serve a very important role for the environment and that we risk a backlash of increased emissions if they are abolished. Fuel taxes have restrained growth in fuel demand and associated carbon emissions. Although fuel demand is large and growing, our analysis shows that it would have been much higher in the absence of domestic fuel taxes. People often assert that fuel demand is inelastic but there is strong research evidence showing the opposite. The price elasticity is in fact quite high but only in the long-run: in the short run it may be quite inelastic which has important implications for policy makers. Had Europe not followed a policy of high fuel taxation but had low US taxes, then fuel demand would have been twice as large. Hypothetical transport demand in the whole OECD area is calculated for various tax scenarios and the results show that fuel taxes are the single most powerful climate policy instrument implemented to date-yet this fact is not usually given due attention in the debate

  8. Should the EU climate policy framework be reformed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ELLISON

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Though to-date the European Union (EU has played the most significant leadership role in international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, the emission-reducing performance of individual EU Member states has for many been less than stellar. Several EU15 Member states continue to raise rather than lower emissions. Analysing the most successful policy instruments, this paper argues EU policy efforts could benefit from three important innovations. The following strategies – the adoption of an EU-wide FIT (feed-in tariff, an EU-wide carbon tax and more flexibility in the trading of carbon credits – could significantly improve emission reductions, their relative cost-efficiency and spread burden-sharing more evenly across technologies and Member states. This raises important questions, both about the effectiveness of EU and Kyoto-style commitments, as well as the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS. The commitment strategy, and in particular the EU ETS mechanism, have had the smallest impact on emission reductions. The proposed set of strategies could make a far greater contribution to future EU efforts and potentially lock in the impressive progress already made. Such a policy shift, if successful, would also greatly enhance the EU’s already significant credibility and bargaining power in international climate negotiations.

  9. Introduction to the Special Issue on Climate Ethics: Uncertainty, Values and Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach. This special issue will identify the main challenges that climate change poses from social, economic, methodological and ethical perspectives by focusing on the complex interrelations between uncertainty, values and policy in this context. This special issue brings together scholars from economics, social sciences and philosophy in order to address these challenges.

  10. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  11. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  12. Carbon emissions from U.S. ethylene production under climate change policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruth, Matthias; Amato, Anthony D; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur

    2002-01-15

    This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energy-such as carbon taxes or carbon permit systems-are relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capital-such as R&D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedules-may be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.

  13. Energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: The consistency of European CHP, renewables and energy efficiency policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-09-01

    This report is Volume 14 of individual reports of the Shared Analysis Project prepared for the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy. The three major objectives of the project were: to design a common framework of energy analysis that aimed to involve all Member States and the experts of industrial research groups (the shared approach to energy analysis); To analyse generic EU-wide issues important for energy policy and for future energy demand and production, putting particular emphasis on world energy market trends, strategic energy policy responses to the Kyoto process, and evaluation of response strategies to increasing energy import dependence and to climate change activities; to carry out quantitative analyses of energy trends and scenarios as an input for discussion. The present volume considers three main issues concerning energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: the penetration of CHP and renewables according to official objectives, focusing on infrastructure and institutions rather than technology; the consistency of promotion of CHP, renewables and energy savings at the same time; consumers' choices and priorities in a liberalised market. The volume describes examples of policies in several Member States for these technologies with emphasis on CHP for both large-scale and small-scale district heating systems. The penetration of CHP technologies is analysed quantitatively using a traditional optimisation model approach for stylised regions with heat markets suitable for CHP and facing a competitive European market for electricity. The Joint Final Report of the project, titled 'Economic Foundations for Energy Policy' is published as a Special Issue of Energy in Europe, December 1999. All reports are available on the Internet, www.shared-analysis.fhg.de/ The project started in January 1998, involving about 100 months of scientific labour. The project consortium consisted of nine member institutes co-ordinated by

  14. Energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: The consistency of European CHP, renewables and energy efficiency policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-09-01

    This report is Volume 14 of individual reports of the Shared Analysis Project prepared for the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy. The three major objectives of the project were: to design a common framework of energy analysis that aimed to involve all Member States and the experts of industrial research groups (the shared approach to energy analysis); To analyse generic EU-wide issues important for energy policy and for future energy demand and production, putting particular emphasis on world energy market trends, strategic energy policy responses to the Kyoto process, and evaluation of response strategies to increasing energy import dependence and to climate change activities; to carry out quantitative analyses of energy trends and scenarios as an input for discussion. The present volume considers three main issues concerning energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: the penetration of CHP and renewables according to official objectives, focusing on infrastructure and institutions rather than technology; the consistency of promotion of CHP, renewables and energy savings at the same time; consumers' choices and priorities in a liberalised market. The volume describes examples of policies in several Member States for these technologies with emphasis on CHP for both large-scale and small-scale district heating systems. The penetration of CHP technologies is analysed quantitatively using a traditional optimisation model approach for stylised regions with heat markets suitable for CHP and facing a competitive European market for electricity. The Joint Final Report of the project, titled 'Economic Foundations for Energy Policy' is published as a Special Issue of Energy in Europe, December 1999. All reports are available on the Internet, www.shared-analysis.fhg.de/ The project started in January 1998, involving about 100 months of scientific labour. The project consortium consisted of nine member institutes co-ordinated by the Fraunhofer

  15. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  16. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  17. Greenhouse gas emissions trading and complementary policies. Developing a smart mix for ambitious climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.

    2010-06-15

    A debate has - most notably as a result of the introduction of fixed caps within the framework of emissions trading - been raised about the need for using additional instruments of climate and energy policy. A common line of argument is that the targets set within the emissions trading scheme are going to be met with a high degree of certainty, and flexibility among the regulated stakeholders will lead to market-based discovery processes. Additional instruments would only generate additional costs and would therefore have to be rejected. However, closer analysis of these fundamental arguments shows that they are constructed on a very high level of abstraction and sometimes rely on strongly simplifying or idealising assumptions. Their theoretical assumptions are, at least in part, very questionable and do not correspond to conditions in the real world for climate and energy policy. At the same time the debate about policy instruments cannot be held autonomously of the specific context of the problem at hand. In this sense the very extensive (complete) and above all effective decarbonisation of the economies of industrialised countries in a comparatively short time frame is the key basic condition for the analysis, assessment and design of the climate policy mix. Essentially, the question is what the best instruments are for purging the whole economic system almost entirely of CO{sub 2} emissions within a period of only forty years. The introduction of emissions trading schemes for greenhouse gases in an increasing number of OECD countries undoubtedly constitutes an important landmark of climate policy. They: - provide a high degree of certainty in terms of meeting targets; - create, on the basis of a standardised price signal, a clearing mechanism for the broad spectrum of emission reduction options close to the market, at least in the short to medium term; and - represent, by means of linking, an interesting option in terms of the globalisation of climate policy

  18. Informing Public Perceptions About Climate Change: A 'Mental Models' Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

    2017-10-01

    As the specter of climate change looms on the horizon, people will face complex decisions about whether to support climate change policies and how to cope with climate change impacts on their lives. Without some grasp of the relevant science, they may find it hard to make informed decisions. Climate experts therefore face the ethical need to effectively communicate to non-expert audiences. Unfortunately, climate experts may inadvertently violate the maxims of effective communication, which require sharing communications that are truthful, brief, relevant, clear, and tested for effectiveness. Here, we discuss the 'mental models' approach towards developing communications, which aims to help experts to meet the maxims of effective communications, and to better inform the judgments and decisions of non-expert audiences.

  19. Uncertainty vs. learning in climate policy: Some classical results and new directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lange, A. [Univ. of Maryland (United States); Treich, N. [Univ. of Toulouse (France)

    2007-07-01

    Climate policy decisions today have to be made under substantial uncertainty: the impact of accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is not perfectly known, the future economic and social consequences of climate change, in particular the valuation of possible damages, are uncertain. However, learning will change the basis of making future decisions on abatement policies. These important issues of uncertainty and learning are often presented in a colloquial sense. Two opposing effects are typically put forward: First, uncertainty about future climate damage, which is often associated with the possibility of a catastrophic scenario is said to give a premium to slow down global warming and therefore to increase abatement efforts today. Second learning opportunities will reduce scientific undertainty about climate damage over time. This is often used as an argument to postpone abatement efforts until new information is received. The effects of uncertainty and learning on the optimal design of current climate policy are still much debated both in the academic and the political arena. In this paper, the authors study and contrast the effect of uncertainty and learning in a two-decision model that encompasses most existing microeconomics models of climate change. They first consider the common expected utility framework: While uncertainty has generally no or a negative effect on welfare, learning has always a positive, and thus opposite, effect. The effects of both uncertainty and learning on decisions are less clear. Neither uncertainty nor learning can be used as an argument to increase or reduce emissions today, independently on the degree of risk aversion of the decision-marker and on the nature of irreversibility constraints. The authors then deviate from the expected utility framework and consider a model with ambiguity aversion. The model accounts well for situations of imprecise or multiple probability distributions, as present in the context of climate

  20. AGE assessment of interactions between climate change policy instruments and pre-existing taxes: the case of Ireland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wissema, W.W.; Dellink, R.B.

    2010-01-01

    We introduce a computable general equilibrium model for Ireland to investigate the impact of climate policy on the Irish economy, taking special notice of interactions with the existing tax structure. To this end, we extend the model with a detailed representation of the tax system using separate

  1. Integrating science, economics and law into policy: The case of carbon sequestration in climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Kenneth

    Carbon sequestration, the extraction and storage of carbon from the atmosphere by biomass, could potentially provide a cost-effective means to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. The claims on behalf of carbon sequestration may be inadvertently overstated, however. Several key observations emerge from this study. First, although carbon sequestration studies all report results in terms of dollars per ton, the definition of that term varies significantly, meaning that the results of various analyses can not be meaningfully compared. Second, when carbon sequestration is included in an energy-economy model of climate change policy, it appears that carbon sequestration could play a major, if not dominant role in a national carbon emission abatement program, reducing costs of emissions stabilization by as much as 80 percent, saving tens of billions of dollars per year. However, the results are very dependant upon landowners' perceived risk. Studies may also have overstated the potential for carbon sequestration because they have not considered the implementation process. This study demonstrates that three factors will reduce the cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration. First, the implementation costs associated with measurement and governance of the government-private sector relation are higher than in the case of carbon source control. Second, legal constraints limit the range of instruments that the government can use to induce private landowners to expand their carbon sinks. The government will likely have to pay private parties to expand their sinks, or undertake direct government production. In either case, additional revenues will be required, introducing social costs associated with excess burden. Third, because of the very long time involved in developing carbon sinks (up to several decades) the government may not be able to make credible commitments against exactions of one type or another that would effectively reduce the value of private sector investments

  2. Climatic change and local policy, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Policy options and implementation strategies to reduce emission of CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schol, E.; Van den Bosch, A.; Ligthart, F.A.T.M.; Roemer, J.C.; Ruijg, G.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Dinkelman, D.H.; Kok, I.C.; De Paauw, K.F.B.

    1998-04-01

    Insight is given into the local policy options with respect to climate change, in this case within the sphere of influence of Amsterdam local authorities. A list of new policy options for CO2-reduction has been made with the assistance of local policy makers and representatives of interest groups. These policy options have been divided into three qualitative scenarios: Institutional Cultural Change, Technological Innovation and Least Regrets. The environmental, economic and other effects have been described for each policy option. The three most interesting policy options have been selected by local policy makers and representatives of interest groups during a workshop. Implementation strategies have been developed for the options selected. These strategies have been discussed during a second workshop. The reduction target, stabilization of CO2-emissions in 2015 compared to 1993, can be realized by a combination of all the new policy options. The three selected policy options count for 40% of this total CO2-emission reduction. Finally, a general outline on the methodology to construct local policies for climate protection has been described. This methodology can also be applied to other cities and municipal administrators, e.g. participants of Cities for Climate Protection, an initiative of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or the Netherlands Climate Association. 136 refs

  3. The structural effects of cap and trade climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goettle, Richard J.; Fawcett, Allen A.

    2009-01-01

    The Inter-temporal General Equilibrium Model (IGEM) explores the cost to the U.S. economy of increasingly more stringent cap and trade regimes. The economy-wide losses are small with energy, agriculture, chemicals, high tech manufacturing and trade being most affected. The availability of lower cost offsets substantially reduces these economic losses. The economy becomes less capital but more labor intensive. Household welfare losses are smaller for full consumption (goods, services and leisure). A more inelastic trade-off between consumption and leisure dramatically reduces policy costs as do more favorable revenue recycling options. Induced technical change yields a small, measurable reduction in policy costs. (author)

  4. Investment under uncertain climate policy: A practitioners' perspective on carbon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barradale, Merrill Jones

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO 2 emissions under uncertain climate policy). In modeling power plant investment decisions, most existing literature uses the expected carbon price (e.g., the price of traded permits or carbon tax) as a proxy for carbon risk. In contrast, this paper identifies expected carbon payment as a more accurate measure of carbon risk as perceived by industry practitioners. This measure of carbon risk incorporates both expected price and the probability that this price would actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005–2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal-fired power plant development in the U.S. The data for this case study comes from an