WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate policy models

  1. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wid

  2. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  3. A Model of Climate Policy Using Board Game Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Castronova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of how a board game can be modified to generate a serious game. We argue that board games are an interesting medium for serious games, especially when the goal is to teach players about particularly complex systems. In that case, the transparency of a board game makes it possible for players to “see the whole boards” – to see all of the various moving parts at work. That transparency also makes it very easy to modify board games. To demonstrate these claims, we present a modification to the board game CO2 that accurately models different policy options with regard to global warming. We show how a few major changes to the original game’s point systems, as well as removal of certain extraneous features, can significantly improve the game, adding an instructional value. The game allows players to experiment with several policy options, including carbon taxes, carbon emissions permit sales, and clean energy research support, and lets players see how these policies interact. We discuss ways that teachers, advocates, journalists, and others can the Climate Policy mod to more easily explain the incredibly complex interactions of power markets, carbon dioxide emissions, and public policy.

  4. General and Partial Equilibrium Modeling of Sectoral Policies to Address Climate Change in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pizer, William; Burtraw, Dallas; Harrington, Winston; Newell, Richard; Sanchirico, James; Toman, Michael

    2003-03-31

    This document provides technical documentation for work using detailed sectoral models to calibrate a general equilibrium analysis of market and non-market sectoral policies to address climate change. Results of this work can be found in the companion paper, "Modeling Costs of Economy-wide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Model".

  5. Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A. [Canadian Energy Research Inst., Calgary, AB (Canada); Backus, G. [Policy Assessment Corp., Arvada, CO (United States)

    2005-04-01

    Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs.

  6. Geospatial Issues in Energy-Climate Modeling: Implications for Modelers, Economists, Climate Scientists and Policy Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newmark, R. L.; Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Short, W.

    2010-12-01

    Accurate characterizations of renewable energy technologies, particularly wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, require an increasingly sophisticated understanding of location-specific attributes, including generation or production costs and the cost of transmission or transportation to a point of use, and climate induced changes to the resource base. Capturing these site-specific characteristics in national and global models presents both unique opportunities and challenges. National and global decisions, ideally, should be informed by geospatially rich data and analysis. Here we describe issues related to and initial advances in representing renewable energy technologies in global models, and the resulting implications for climate stabilization analysis and global assessments, including IPCC’s Assessment Round 5 and IEA’s World Energy Outlook.

  7. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  8. Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

    2016-12-01

    The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

  9. Climate - Options for broadening climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts JCJH; Asselt H van; Bakker SJA; Bayangos V; Beers C van; Berk MM; Biermann F; Bouwer LM; Bree L van; Coninck HC de; Dorland K; Elzen ME den; Gupta J; Heemst J van; Jansen JC; Kok MTJ; Nabuurs GJ; Veraert J; Verhagen A; Kok MTJ; Coninck HC de; ECN; KMD

    2005-01-01

    In this study ways are explored to increase the policy coherence between the climate regime and a selected number of climate relevant policy areas, by adding a non-climate policy track to national and international climate strategies. The report assesses first the potential, synergies and trade-offs

  10. ECLIPSE: An integrated energy-economy model for climate policy and scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2008-12-15

    This paper describes the development of the Energy and Climate Policy and Scenario Evaluation (ECLIPSE) model - a flexible integrated assessment tool for energy and climate change policy and scenario assessment. This tool builds on earlier efforts to link top-down and bottom-up models, and combines a macroeconomic energy demand model and a consumer-budget transport demand model with the technology-rich bottom-up energy and transport system model Energy Research and Investment Strategy (ERIS), and solves the models iteratively. Compared to previous efforts, ECLIPSE includes many new features, such as a more disaggregated production function, improved calibration and parameterization and separate modeling of passenger transport demand. The separate modeling of transportation makes ECLIPSE particularly well-suited to analyzing interactions between the transport sector and the broader energy market and economy. This paper presents results illustrating some features of the integrated model, compares technology deployment results with ECLIPSE and the bottom-up ERIS model, and briefly describes illustrative baseline and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios to highlight some of the features of the framework outlined in this paper. A number of modeling and policy insights arising from this scenario analysis are discussed. (author)

  11. [Energy policy rather than climate policy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroonenberg, Salomon B

    2009-01-01

    Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

  12. Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose

    2015-03-01

    Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

  13. Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

    CERN Document Server

    Rougier, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.

  14. The interaction of climate observation, parameter estimation, and mitigation decisions: Modeling climate policy under uncertainty with a partially observable Markov decision process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fertig, E.; Webster, M.

    2013-12-01

    Though climate sensitivity remains poorly constrained, the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions and observable climate data could lead to improved estimates. Updated parameter estimates could alter decisions on greenhouse mitigation policy, which in turn influences future observed climate data and parameter estimation. Previous research on global climate mitigation policy neglects the cyclic nature of climate observation, parameter estimation, and policy action, instead treating uncertainty in climate sensitivity with scenario analysis or assuming that it will be resolved completely at some point in the future. This paper advances quantitative analysis of decision making under uncertainty (DMUU) in climate sensitivity by modeling the observation/parameter estimation/policy action cycle as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). In a POMDP framework, an objective function is maximized while both observable parameters and probability distributions over unobservable parameters are retained as system states. As time progresses and more data are collected, the probability distributions are updated with Bayesian analysis. To model anthropogenic climate change as a POMDP, we maximize social welfare using a modified DICE model. Climate sensitivity is never directly observable; instead it is modeled with a distribution that is subject to Bayesian updating after observation of stochastic changes in global mean temperature. The maximization problem is posed as a stochastic Bellman equation, which expresses total social welfare as the sum of immediate social welfare resulting from a current mitigation decision under current knowledge of climate sensitivity and the expected cost-to-go, which is the discounted future social welfare in the subsequent time interval as a function of both global mean temperature and the consequent probability distribution over climate sensitivity. While similar, smaller stochastic dynamic programming problems can be solved

  15. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, M.

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  16. Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian Sue Wing

    2006-04-18

    The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal

  17. A Model of Water Resources & Thermoelectric Plant Productivity Considering Changing Climates & Environmental Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Wollheim, W. M.; Rosenzweig, B.

    2012-12-01

    all power plants were to comply with the CWA and if temperatures do increase in the future as is expected under greenhouse warming, electric power generation in the Northeast may become limited, particularly in the summer. To avoid a potential energy gap, back-up generators and other electric infrastructure, such as hydropower, may have to come online in order to meet the total electric demand. Furthermore, it is clear that the methodology and steps taken in the model are required to more accurately understand, estimate and evaluate the relationship between energy production, environmental and energy policy and biodiversity under forecasted and historic climate conditions. Our ongoing work uses this model to explore various future scenarios of policy, climate and natural resource management in the Northeastern US for the period 2010-2100.

  18. Combining climate and energy policies: synergies or antagonism? Modeling interactions with energy efficiency instruments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lecuyer, Oskar [EDF R and D - Efese, 1 av du General de Gaulle, 92141 Clamart (France)] [CIRED, 45 bis av de la Belle-Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne (France); Bibas, Ruben [CIRED, 45 bis av de la Belle-Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne (France)

    2012-01-15

    In addition to the already present Climate and Energy package, the European Union (EU) plans to include a binding target to reduce energy consumption. We analyze the rationales the EU invokes to justify such an overlapping and develop a minimal common framework to study interactions arising from the combination of instruments reducing emissions, promoting renewable energy (RE) production and reducing energy demand through energy efficiency (EE) investments. We find that although all instruments tend to reduce GHG emissions and although a price on carbon tends also to give the right incentives for RE and EE, the combination of more than one instrument leads to significant antagonisms regarding major objectives of the policy package. The model allows to show in a single framework and to quantify the antagonistic effects of the joint promotion of RE and EE. We also show and quantify the effects of this joint promotion on ETS permit price, on wholesale market price and on energy production levels. (authors)

  19. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  20. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  1. Informing energy and climate policies using energy systems models insights from scenario analysis increasing the evidence base

    CERN Document Server

    Giannakidis, George; Ó Gallachóir, Brian; Tosato, GianCarlo

    2015-01-01

    This book highlights how energy-system models are used to underpin and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions at national, multi-country and global levels. It brings together, for the first time in one volume, a range of methodological approaches and case studies of good modeling practice on a national and international scale from the IEA-ETSAP energy technology initiative. It provides insights for the reader into the rich and varied applications of energy-system models and the underlying methodologies and policy questions they can address. The book demonstrates how these mode

  2. Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa Pinto, L.M.; Harrison, G.W. [Universidade do Minho, Braga (Portugal). Nucleo de Investigacao em Microeconomia Aplicada, Departmento de Economia

    2000-07-01

    Negotiations in the real world have many features that tend to be ignored in policy modelling. They are often multilateral, involving many negotiating parties with preferences over outcomes that can differ substantially. They are also often multi-dimensional, in the sense that several policies are negotiated over simultaneously. Trade negotiations are a prime example, as are negotiations over environmental policies to abate CO{sub 2}. The authors demonstrate how one can formally model this type of negotiation process. They use a policy-oriented computable general equilibrium model to generate preference functions which are then used in a formal multilateral bargaining game. The case study is on climate change policy, but the main contribution is to demonstrate how one can integrate formal economic models of the impacts of policies with formal bargaining models of the negotiations over those policies. 8 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  3. Climate policies under wealth inequality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M; Levin, Simon A

    2014-02-11

    Taming the planet's climate requires cooperation. Previous failures to reach consensus in climate summits have been attributed, among other factors, to conflicting policies between rich and poor countries, which disagree on the implementation of mitigation measures. Here we implement wealth inequality in a threshold public goods dilemma of cooperation in which players also face the risk of potential future losses. We consider a population exhibiting an asymmetric distribution of rich and poor players that reflects the present-day status of nations and study the behavioral interplay between rich and poor in time, regarding their willingness to cooperate. Individuals are also allowed to exhibit a variable degree of homophily, which acts to limit those that constitute one's sphere of influence. Under the premises of our model, and in the absence of homophily, comparison between scenarios with wealth inequality and without wealth inequality shows that the former leads to more global cooperation than the latter. Furthermore, we find that the rich generally contribute more than the poor and will often compensate for the lower contribution of the latter. Contributions from the poor, which are crucial to overcome the climate change dilemma, are shown to be very sensitive to homophily, which, if prevalent, can lead to a collapse of their overall contribution. In such cases, however, we also find that obstinate cooperative behavior by a few poor may largely compensate for homophilic behavior.

  4. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, E.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Ebi, K.L.; Kram, T.; Riahi, K.; Winkler, J.; van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2014-01-01

    The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a

  5. Investment under Uncertain Climate Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barradale, Merrill Jones

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under uncertain climate policy). In modeling power plant investment decisions, most existing literature uses the expected carbon price (e.g., the price...... actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005–2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal-fired power plant development in the U.S. The data for this case study comes from an extensive online survey of 700 U.S. energy...... design better incentives for investing in low-carbon technologies...

  6. Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-08-07

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

  7. Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.

  8. Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

  9. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  10. Technology and international climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-05-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  11. Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otto, V.M.; Löschel, A.; Reilly, J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the cost-effe

  12. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  13. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  15. Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Fraser J; Daigneault, Adam J

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

  16. Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fraser J Morgan

    Full Text Available Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.

  17. Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.

    2016-02-01

    We present a carbon-cycle-climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM-ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response patterns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean temperatures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change.

  18. A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches : Rejoinder to the review of "Making or breaking climate targets - The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao-Skirbekk, Shilpa; Currás, Tabaré Arroyo; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Bertram, Christoph; Bibas, Ruben; Edmonds, Jae; Johnson, Nils; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; McCollum, David; Jiang, Kejun

    2015-01-01

    We provide a rejoinder to a review (Rosen, 2015) of our original article "Making or breaking climate targets - the AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy" (Kriegler et al., 2015a). We have a substantial disagreement with the content of the review, and feel that it is plagued b

  19. Mitigation and Solar Radiation Management in Climate Change Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Manousi, Vasiliki; Xepapadeas, Anastasios

    2013-01-01

    We couple a spatially homogeneous energy balance climate model with an economic growth model which incorporates two potential policies against climate change: mitigation, which is the traditional policy, and geoengineering. We analyze the optimal policy mix of geoengineering and mitigation in both a cooperative and a noncooperative framework, in which we study open loop and feedback solutions. Our results suggests that greenhouse gas accumulation is relatively higher when geoengineering polic...

  20. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies; Modeliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang: application aux politiques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crassous, R

    2008-11-15

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks.

  1. Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    This report explores the effects of the EU emissions trading scheme on the aluminium sector (i.e. competitiveness loss and carbon leakage). With its very high electricity intensity, primary aluminium stands out in the heavy industry picture: a sector whose emissions are not capped in the present EU ETS, European aluminium smelters still stand to lose profit margins and, possibly, market shares, as electricity prices increase following CO2 caps on generators' emissions - the famous pass-through of CO2 prices into electricity prices. The analysis includes a method of quantification of this issue, based on two indicators: profit margins and trade flows. As the EU is at the forefront of such policy, the paper provides policy messages to all countries on how trade exposed energy-intensive industries can be 'moved' by carbon constraint. This also is a contentious topic in Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, where ambitious climate policies -- including cap-and-trade systems -- are currently debated.

  2. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... policy objectives focusing on (1) the protection on current (native) species, and (2) all species, including immigrating species. The trade-offs between the protection of native species versus all species is illustrated. The study shows that the development of prediction models of future species...

  3. Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Simon [London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (United Kingdom); Asheim, Geir B. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics

    2011-08-15

    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies, where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs. In this paper, we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism (SDU) as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy. Unlike undiscounted utilitarianism, which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility, SDU is an axiomatically based criterion, which departs from DU by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future. Using the DICE integrated assessment model to run risk analysis, we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a 'business as usual' development path. Consequently SDU and DU differ, and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is (sometimes significantly) higher under SDU than under DU. Under SDU, stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare, even for a relatively high utility discount rate. (orig.)

  4. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

  5. Managing Climate Policy Information Facilitating Knowledge Transfer to Policy Makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charikleia Karakosta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the challenging context of intense negotiations and radical developments in the field of climate policy, informing stakeholders about opportunities and pathways and about scientific insights and warnings is important to help create positive dynamics. Policy makers need digestible information to design good policies, and understand their options and the possible impacts of these options. They need access to well-structured knowledge, as well as appropriate techniques to manage information and data. However, available information is often difficult to access, not in the right format and of limited use to stakeholders. The range of knowledge needs identified has to be effectively addressed by providing interested parties with suitable, to-the-point information, covering the identified gaps. This is the main aim of this article that proposes the design and development of a climate policy database, which contains all the resources that can cover the identified knowledge gaps. The resources are derived from a broad range of existing reports, research and climate policy decisions at different levels. The goal is to render climate policy associated stakeholders able to extract key policy conclusions. The added value of this database was verified by users and stakeholders that generally argued that the climate policy database facilitates solid understanding of climate policy implications and fosters collaborative knowledge exchange in the field.

  6. Cooperation and discord in global climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keohane, Robert O.; Victor, David G.

    2016-06-01

    Effective mitigation of climate change will require deep international cooperation, which is much more difficult to organize than the shallow coordination observed so far. Assessing the prospects for effective joint action on climate change requires an understanding of both the structure of the climate change problem and national preferences for policy action. Preferences have become clearer in light of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties in December 2015. Although deep cooperation remains elusive, many partial efforts could build confidence and lead to larger cuts in emissions. This strategy of decentralized policy coordination will not solve the climate problem, but it could lead incrementally to deeper cooperation.

  7. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  8. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  9. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  10. Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-21

    Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

  11. The Impacts of Policies To Meet The UK Climate Change Act Target on Air Quality - An Explicit Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M.; Beevers, S.; Lott, M. C.; Kitwiroon, N.

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a preliminary analysis of different pathways to meet the UK Climate Change Act target for 2050, of an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions on a base year of 1990. The pathways can result in low levels of air pollution emissions through the use of renewables and nuclear power. But large increases in biomass burning and the continued use of diesel cars they can result in larger air quality impacts. The work evaluated the air quality impacts in several pathways using an energy system optimisation model (UK TIMES) and a chemical transport model (CMAQ). The work described in this paper goes beyond the `damage cost' approach where only emissions in each are assessed. In this work we used scenarios produced by the UK TIMES model which we converted into air pollution emissions. Emissions of ammonia from agriculture are not attributed to the energy system and are thus not captured by energy system models, yet are crucial in forming PM2.5, acknowledged to be currently the most important pollutant associated with premature deaths. Our model includes these emissions and other non-energy sources of hydrocarbons which lead to the formation of ozone, another significant cause of air pollution health impacts. A key policy issue is how much biogenic hydrocarbons contribute to ozone formation compared with man-made emissions. We modelled pollution concentrations at a resolution of 7 km across the UK and at 2km in urban areas. These results allow us to estimate changes in premature mortality and morbidity associated with the changes in air pollution and subsequently the economic cost of the impacts on public health. The work shows that in the `clean' scenario, urban exposures to particles (PM2.5) and NO2 could decrease by very large amounts, but ozone exposures are likely to increase without further significant reductions world-wide. Large increases in biomass use however could lead to increases in urban levels of carcinogens and primary PM.

  12. People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

    2012-07-01

    How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

  13. Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

  14. Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

    2014-12-01

    To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

  15. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  16. Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

    2010-05-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission

  17. The fallacies of concurrent climate policy efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radetzki, Marian

    2010-05-01

    Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and expresses distrust about claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent, misguided and unduly costly, and that they have so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons, but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred, skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy plans currently on the table.

  18. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-01

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century.

  19. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

  20. Transport policies related to climate change mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Kappel, Jannik

    and their results are introduced as well. To provide an overview of current trends, related scientific projects and other analyses on climate change mitigation and transport are given in the report. The references used in this report can also serve as a source of data and inspiration for the reader. This report......This report presents the Danish national policies on reducing the emissions of greenhouse gasses and reducing Denmark’s dependency on fossil fuels in the transport sector, as well as some of the results of the policies. Systematic focus on efficient transport and climate mitigation started in 2008...... challenges for the transport sectors, which has not yet been systematically analysed from any Governmental body. In this report we list projects which have done so. The first chapter describes policies and initiatives of international relevance within climate mitigation. The following chapters explain...

  1. Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert, Markus

    2007-07-01

    Globally, the transport system faces a paradigmatic shift where, in addition to increased local traffic problems, climate change and depletion of fossil oil reserves will foster a successive transition to renewable fuels and a need for more resource-efficient mobility management and communication alternatives. Foresighted countries, cities or companies taking the lead in adapting to these tougher conditions might well not only solve those problems, but also turn the problems into business advantages. This thesis is based on six studies that attempt to develop future strategies based on rigorous principled emission and energy efficiency targets and to modulate the impact of travel policies, technical components and behaviours in economically advantageous ways. The modelling frameworks developed throughout the thesis build on a target-orientated approach called backcasting, where the following general components are applied: (1) target description at a conceptual level i.e. the potential for sustainable energy systems, emissions, costs, behavioural patterns, preferences, etc.; (2) mapping of the current situation in relation to target description; and (3) modelling of alternative sets of policies, technologies, behaviours and economic prerequisites to arrive at target achievement. Sustainable travel strategies are analysed from two main viewpoints. The first four studies focus on company travel planning, where behavioural modelling proved to be an important tool for deriving targetorientated travel policies consistent with employee preferences. The latter two studies focus on strategies and preconditions to meet future emission targets and energy efficiency requirements at a macroscopic regional level by 2030. Backcasting's role as a generic methodology for effective strategic planning is discussed

  2. Political motives in climate and energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruvoll, Annegrete; Dalen, Hanne Marit; Larsen, Bodil M.

    2012-07-01

    Standard economic theory provides clear guidance on the design of cost-efficient policy in the presence of imperfect markets and externalities. However, observed policies reveal extensive discrepancies between principles and practise. Based on interviews with core politicians from the Norwegian parliament, we investigate causes for the lack of cost efficiency in climate and energy policy. We find that politicians agree with the notion of cost efficiency in principle, but rather than ascribing efficient instruments directed at specific policy goals, they include concerns for industrial and regional development, income distribution and employment in the environmental policy design. Lacking insight in the functioning of economic instruments and perceptions of a non-binding budget constraint also violate the requirements for efficient policy decisions. The findings point to the role of economists and social scientists to communicate the functioning of complex instruments. Improved compensation procedures could help reduce the politicians' incentives to undermine efficiency in order to avoid unwanted distributional effects.(Author)

  3. Aligning climate policy with finance ministers' G20 agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar; Knopf, Brigitte; Bak, Céline; Bhattacharya, Amar

    2017-07-01

    There is no longer a choice between climate policy and no climate policy. G20 finance ministers have to play a key role in implementing smart climate policies like carbon pricing. Yet they remain reluctant to take advantage of the merits of carbon pricing for sound fiscal policy.

  4. Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Csete

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

  5. EU Climate Policy Tracker 2011. Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoehne, N.; Geurts, F.; Teckenburg, E.; Blok, K.; Becker, D. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    Limiting the rise in the average global temperature to 2C has been the EU goal since 1996, and in December 2010 the UN recognised the need to consider a 1.5C limit. Avoiding overshooting these levels will require massive emissions reductions - in the order of 80-95% for industrialised countries, like those in the EU. The next ten years are crucial in establishing whether society will be able to make this transition, or whether temperature increase limits will be irreversibly missed. Last year, the European Union Climate Policy Tracker (EU CPT) investigated each member state's implementation of policy and legislation, and rated their progress towards a 2050 vision of deep decarbonisation using renewable energy. The uniquely developed rating scheme, modelled on appliance efficiency labels (A-G), gave an indication of how member states were doing compared to a 'low-carbon policy package'. The average score was an 'E', indicating that the level of effort needed to treble, to be on a pace to reach the 2050 vision. However, aggregating best practices across sectors and countries doubled the score - meaning that the tools are already at hand for major improvements across Europe. This report builds on last year's EU CPT by giving an update on action in member states, and an indicative trend in the rating, as well as adding a new section on EU policy. The addition of an EU section is appropriate, with the Commission having produced a roadmap on a low-carbon economy by 2050, a transport white paper, and with another roadmap for 2050 focused on energy anticipated by the end of 2011. This report seeks to answer the question of whether these and other related initiatives are sufficient to help Europe reach its low-carbon goals. When interpreting the results of this report, it is important to understand that the goal underlying the vision here is not the same as the one in the European Commission's 'low-carbon economy' roadmap

  6. Bridging the Gap between Climate Research and Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, M.; Lambert, K. F.; Buonocore, J.; Driscoll, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    The weak link between science and policy jeopardizes the wellbeing of people and the planet. Climate change is a pressing example of this disconnect. Policies are not keeping pace with the best of our knowledge from climate change research. We are working to bridge the science-policy divide and advance climate solutions by focusing on the positive health, ecosystem, and economic benefits of policy action. In 2013, we brought together an interdisciplinary team to estimate the co-benefits of U.S. power plant carbon standards for air quality and health, plus the economic value of the benefits. The results demonstrate that strong carbon standards with flexible compliance options can change the power sector, yielding substantial air quality and health benefits nationwide. The results also show that the economic value of these benefits outweighs the costs nationally and regionally. We advanced the policy applications of this research through a strategic campaign with three key elements: media communication, targeted outreach, and information for policymakers. Our strategy was to build widespread awareness of the research outcomes via media engagement, amplify our message via targeted outreach to citizens groups, and inform policy solutions by sharing research results with decision makers. The research was reported in more than 600 unique news stories in mainstream media outlets and received social media posts by members of Congress and senior White House officials. We amplified the messages via 14 webinars for citizens groups. We also held 16 briefings for policymakers and the public, in addition to meetings with relevant policy staff. Regional, state and federal policy leaders have used the research to understand air quality and health benefits of power plant carbon standards. This model of pairing research with media communication, targeted outreach, and information for policymakers is effective for bridging the gap between climate research and policy, and can be

  7. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  8. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Robbie M.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.

    2013-09-01

    A growing number of countries regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions occurring within their borders, but due to rapid growth in international trade, the products consumed in many of the same countries increasingly rely on coal, oil and gas extracted and burned in other countries where CO2 is not regulated. As a consequence, existing national and regional climate policies may be growing less effective every year. Furthermore, countries that are dependent on imported products or fossil fuels are more exposed to energy and climate policies in other countries. We show that the combined international trade in carbon (as fossil fuels and also embodied in products) increased from 12.3 GtCO2 (55% of global emissions) in 1997 to 17.6 GtCO2 (60%) in 2007 (growing at 3.7% yr-1). Within this, trade in fossil fuels was larger (10.8 GtCO2 in 2007) than trade in embodied carbon (6.9 GtCO2), but the latter grew faster (4.6% yr-1 compared with 3.1% yr-1 for fuels). Most major economies demonstrate increased dependence on traded carbon, either as exports or as imports. Because energy is increasingly embodied in internationally traded products, both as fossil fuels and as products, energy and climate policies in other countries may weaken domestic climate policy via carbon leakage and mask energy security issues.

  9. Energy security and climate policy. Assessing interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-03-28

    World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising. This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly. The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The 'indicators' are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.

  10. Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

  11. Global trade and climate policy scenarios. Impact on Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honkatukia, J.; Kaitila, V.; Kotilainen, M.; Niemi, J.

    2012-09-15

    In this study we use the dynamic version of the GTAP model to analyse the effects of global trade policy changes and their interaction with different global climate policy regimes from Finland's point of view, and in particular, implications for Finnish export sectors. Scenarios explore further trade liberalisation as well as effects of higher-than-current tariffs on world markets. As a complementary dimension we analyse the impact of a global climate agreement that will lead to an additional improvement in energy efficiency and impose limitations to GHG emissions. We find a general trend towards a greater weight of services sector in Finland's total exports volume, whilst the share of traditionally important heavy industry and electronics industries declines. These trends are amplified by further trade liberalisation and slowed down by new barriers for trade. The global coverage of climate policy is particularly significant for energy-intensive industries. (orig.)

  12. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, Olivier [GERAD and Department of Management Sciences, HEC Montreal, Montreal (Qc) (Canada); Edwards, Neil R. [Earth and Environmental Sciences, CEPSAR, Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stocker, Thomas F. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. (author)

  13. Climate change economics and policy: an RFF anthology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Toman, Michael A

    2001-01-01

    .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi Climate Change Economics and Policies: An Overview Michael A. Toman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Part 1: 2. 3. Introduction 4. How...

  14. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-25

    species may become extinct , while others are likely to flourish. The local effects of climate change may contribute more to decision-making than national...in some climate model projections is the possibility of dieback of the Amazon rainforest , resulting in a self-reinforcing cycle of greater drying and...ecologists expect high rates of extinctions and loss of biological diversity if climate change projections are accurate. CRS-37 94 Tol, R.S.J., “New

  15. National policy response to climate change in South Africa | Garland ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    National policy response to climate change in South Africa. ... The National Climate Change Response Plan White Paper defines government's vision for ... in SA is critical to ensure that the health impacts from climate change are mitigated, ...

  16. Integrating agricultural policies and water policies under water supply and climate uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    MejíAs, Patricia; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Flichman, Guillermo

    2004-07-01

    Understanding the interactions of water and agricultural policies is crucial for achieving an efficient management of water resources. In the EU, agricultural and environmental policies are seeking to converge progressively toward mutually compatible objectives and, in this context, the recently reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Water Framework Directive constitute the policy framework in which irrigated agriculture and hence water use will evolve. In fact, one of the measures of the European Water Directive is to establish a water pricing policy for improving water use and attaining a more efficient water allocation. The aim of this research is to investigate the irrigators' responses to these changing policy developments in a self-managed irrigation district in southern Spain. A stochastic programming model has been developed to estimate farmers' response to the application of water pricing policies in different agricultural policy scenarios when water availability is subject to varying climate conditions and water storage capacity in the district's reservoir. Results show that irrigators are price-responsive, but a similar water-pricing policy in different agricultural policy options could have distinct effects on water use, farmers' income, and collected revenue by the water authority. Water availability is a critical factor, and pricing policies are less effective for reducing water consumption in drought years. Thus there is a need to integrate the objectives of water policies within the objectives of the CAP programs to avoid distortion effects and to seek synergy between these two policies.

  17. Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

  18. Agreeing to disagree on climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heal, Geoffrey M; Millner, Antony

    2014-03-11

    Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate--the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time--are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. Seemingly small differences in the discount rate yield very different policy prescriptions, and no consensus "correct" value has been identified. We argue that the choice of discount rate is an ethical primitive: there are many different legitimate opinions as to its value, and none should receive a privileged place in economic analysis of climate policy. Rather, we advocate a social choice-based approach in which a diverse set of individual discount rates is aggregated into a "representative" rate. We show that performing this aggregation efficiently leads to a time-dependent discount rate that declines monotonically to the lowest rate in the population. We apply this discounting scheme to calculations of the social cost of carbon recently performed by the US government and show that it provides an attractive compromise between competing ethical positions, and thus provides a possible resolution to the ethical impasse in climate change economics.

  19. FAIR 1.0 (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments): An interactive model to explore options for differentiation of future commitments in international climate policy making. User documentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elzen MGJ den; Berk MM; Both S; Faber A; Oostenrijk R; CIM

    2001-01-01

    This report contains the model documentation and user instructions of the FAIR model (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments). FAIR is an interactive - scanner-type - computer model to quantitatively explore a range of alternative climate policy options for inte

  20. FAIR 1.0 (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments): An interactive model to explore options for differentiation of future commitments in international climate policy making. User documentation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elzen MGJ den; Berk MM; Both S; Faber A; Oostenrijk R; CIM

    2001-01-01

    This report contains the model documentation and user instructions of the FAIR model (Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments). FAIR is an interactive - scanner-type - computer model to quantitatively explore a range of alternative climate policy options for inte

  1. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabel, Clive E; Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja;

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments. Methods:  Five European and two Chinese city...... authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium. The methodology involved modelling the impact of adopted urban climate-change mitigation transport, buildings and energy policy scenarios, usually for the year 2020 and comparing them with business as usual (BAU) scenarios (where...... policies had not been adopted). Carbon dioxide emissions, health impacting exposures (air pollution, noise and physical activity), health (cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and leukaemia) and wellbeing (including noise related wellbeing, overall wellbeing, economic wellbeing and inequalities) were...

  2. Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that the economic growth seen in recent decades will continue has dominated the discussion of future greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Given that long-term economic growth is uncertain, the impacts of a wide range of growth trajectories should be considered. In particular, slower economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to the detrimental impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown therefore heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now by moving to renewable energy sources, even if this incurs short-term economic cost. I quantify this counterintuitive impact of economic growth assumptions on present-day policy decisions in a simple global economy-climate model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE. In DICE, slow future growth increases the economically optimal present-day carbon tax rate and the utility of taxing carbon emissions, although the magnitude of the increase is sensitive to model parameters, including the rate of social time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Future scenario development should specifically include low-growth scenarios, and the possibility of low-growth economic trajectories should be taken into account in climate policy analyses.

  3. CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets : Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Méjean, Aurélie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine; Wada, Kenichi; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use

  4. Climate policy through changing consumption choices: Options and obstacles for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hertwich, E.G.

    2014-01-01

    While national climate policy can address countries’ production or consumption, climate mitigation via changes in consumption has previously received relatively little attention in climate policy literature. In the absence of an effective international climate policy, the focus on consumption is

  5. Speaking truth to power revisited : science, policy and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, D. [GKSS Forschungszentrum, Geesthacht (Germany)

    2000-06-01

    Two survey questionnaires were circulated among climate scientists located in major institutions in the USA, Germany, Canada, Denmark and Italy to better identify how scientists around the world interpret risks and how they can be negotiated. The selection of countries was representative of national, economic and environmental interests. For instance, because of the geographical expanse of North America, there are several climatic zones and long coastlines to deal with. Emphasis in this paper was on the German context which is more geographically and climatically homogeneous. Denmark and Italy were included because they face greater risks of rising sea levels. The paper also included a self assessment of the state of the art of the climate sciences and the relevance assigned to different sources of information by policy makers. Scientists were asked to assess the ability of atmospheric climate models that deal with the processes of hydrodynamics, radiation, clouds, precipitation and atmospheric convection. They were then asked if the current state of scientific knowledge is adequate to accurately assess the effects of turbulence, surface albedo, land surface processes, sea ice and greenhouse gases. It was shown that there is a reasonable level of agreement among the different scientific communities regarding the abilities of science. However, it was noted that while there is consensus concerning the ability of the science, scientists do not necessarily express an overly high level of confidence in these abilities. The general conclusion reached in this paper was that policy makers rely on a number of sources other than the direct results of science. Compared to scientists, policy makers demonstrate a greater sense of urgency to the issue of climate change. 7 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs.

  6. Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

    2011-12-01

    Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

  7. Expecting the Unexpected Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gajendra S. Chauhan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Analysts have been comparing a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy, to estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy. Both scenarios required assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change and non-climate policies like taxes. Approach: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic shocks to growth in developing countries or a global financial crisis on the performance of three climate policy regimes: A globally-harmonized carbon tax; a global cap and trade system and the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid. The G-cubed dynamic general equilibrium model has been used to explore how the shocks would affect emissions, prices, incomes and wealth under each regime. Results: It has been found that a global cap and trade regime will significantly change the way growth shocks will otherwise be transmitted between regions while price-based systems such as a global carbon tax or a hybrid policy will not. Moreover, in case of a financial meltdown, a price based system will enable significant emissions reductions at low economic cost whereas a quantity target base system will lead to loss of the opportunity for low cost emission reduction because the target is fixed. Conclusion: The results of this study have explored these issues by examining the effects of shocks that have actually occurred in the past decade: A surprising surge of economic growth in developing countries and a global financial crisis. Quantity based approaches such as a global permit trading regime tend to buffer some kinds of macro-economic shocks: Carbon prices rise and fall with the business cycle. However, price-based approaches such as a global carbon tax or a McKibbin Wilcoxen Hybrid would provide stronger firewalls to prevent adverse events in one carbon market from causing a collapse of the global system.

  8. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technolgical, and socioeconomic futures in a regional intergrated-assessment model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Kyle, G. Page; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-05-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of the building stock, commercial equipment and household appliances can have a major impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Subnational regions such as U.S. states wish to increase their energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions or adapt to climate change. Evaluating subnational policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change may undercut such policies. Assessing these uncertainties can be a significant modeling and computation burden. As part of this uncertainty assessment, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy using fractional factorial methods can be applied to reveal the important drivers for detailed uncertainty analysis.

  9. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  10. Implementing European climate adaptation policy : How local policymakers react to european policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  11. Adaptation, mitigation and risk-taking in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auerswald, Heike; Thum, Marcel [Technical Univ. Dresden (Germany). Faculty of Business and Economics; Konrad, Kai A. [Max-Planck-Insitute, Muenchen (Germany)

    2011-01-15

    The future consequences of climate change are highly uncertain. Today, the exact size of possible future damages are widely unknown. Governments try to cope with these risks by investing in mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation aims at a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions whereas adaptation reduces the follow-up costs of climate change. In contrast to the existing literature, we explicitly model the decision of risk-averse governments on mitigation and adaptation policies. Furthermore we also consider the interaction of the two strategies. Mitigation efforts of a single country trigger crowding out as other countries will reduce their mitigation efforts. We show that, under fairly mild conditions, a unilateral increase in mitigation efforts of a single country can even increase global emissions. In contrast, a unilateral commitment to large adaptation efforts benefits the single country and may reduce the global risk from climate change at the expense of other countries. (orig.)

  12. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination—the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  13. Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques [Institut Francais des Relations Internationales - Ifri, 27 rue de la Procession, 75740 Paris Cedex 15 (France); Andrews-Speed, Philip [Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland (United Kingdom); Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen [China Institute of International Studies (China)

    2011-06-15

    's energy sector. Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

  14. Governing climate change in Dutch cities: anchoring local climate strategies in organisation, policy and practical implementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Exter, den R.; Lenhart, J.L.; Kern, K.

    2015-01-01

    Although Dutch cities were among the forerunners in local climate policy, a systematic overview on climate mitigation and adaptation policy is still missing. This study aims to fill this gap by analysing 25 Dutch cities using indicators for the level of anchoring in policy, organisation and

  15. Evaluating European Climate Change Policy: An Ecological Justice Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhovic-Dorsner, Kamala

    2005-01-01

    To date, the concept of ecological justice, when applied to international climate change policy, has largely focused on the North-South dichotomy and has yet to be extended to Central and Eastern European countries. This article argues that current formulations of climate change policy cannot address potential issues of ecological injustice to…

  16. Policy modes for climate change: the role of tripartite partnerships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2010-01-01

    This position paper provides an initial overview of the role of tripartite partnerships for climate change in the broader framework of policy options available to address the issue. First, we will position partnerships in relation to other policy modes for climate change, including emissions trading

  17. Evaluating European Climate Change Policy: An Ecological Justice Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhovic-Dorsner, Kamala

    2005-01-01

    To date, the concept of ecological justice, when applied to international climate change policy, has largely focused on the North-South dichotomy and has yet to be extended to Central and Eastern European countries. This article argues that current formulations of climate change policy cannot address potential issues of ecological injustice to…

  18. Climate Stability and Policy: A Synthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Marsh, Gerald E

    2008-01-01

    During most of the Phanerozoic eon, which began about a half-billion years ago, there were few glacial intervals until the late Pliocene 2.75 million years ago. Beginning at that time, the Earth's climate entered a period of instability with the onset of cyclical ice ages. At first these had a 41,000 year cycle, and about 1 million years ago the period lengthened to 100,000 years, which has continued to the present. Over this period of instability the climate has been extraordinarily sensitive to small forcings, whether due to Milankovitch cycles, solar variations, aerosols, or albedo variations driven by cosmic rays. The current interglacial has lasted for some ten thousand years-about the duration of past interglacials-and serious policy considerations arise as it nears its likely end. It is extremely unlikely that the current rise in carbon dioxide concentration-some 30% since 1750, and projected further increase over the next few decades-will significantly postpone the next glaciation.

  19. Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

  20. Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term climate mitigation pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luderer, Gunnar; Bertram, Christoph; Calvin, Katherine V.; De Cian, Enrica; Kriegler, Elmar

    2016-05-09

    While the international community has set a target to limit global warming to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. In this scenario, GHG concentrations stabilize at approximately 650 ppm CO2e, which clearly falls short of the international community’s long-term climate target. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030, before global cooperative action is taken to pursue the long-term mitigation target. Despite weak near-term action, a 450 ppm CO2e target is achievable in all the models. However, we find that a deferral of ambitious action exacerbates the challenges of low stabilization. Specifically, weak near-term action leads to (a) higher temporary overshooting of radiative forcing, (b) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems after target adoption, (c) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, and (d) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices._

  1. Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Gowdy, John M.

    2007-01-01

    The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are "irrational" according to the...

  2. Two Decades of European Climate Policy: A Critical Appraisal

    OpenAIRE

    Christoph Böhringer

    2013-01-01

    Climate change ranks high on the policy agenda of the European Union (EU) which considers itself as a leading force in the battle against anthropogenic climate change. The EU is committed to the objective of limiting the rise in global average temperature to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This article provides a critical appraisal of two decades of EU climate policy. Based on the global nature of climate ch...

  3. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  4. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  5. Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

  6. Policy challenges for wildlife management in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark L. Shaffer

    2014-01-01

    Try as it might, wildlife management cannot make wild living things adapt to climate change. Management can, however, make adaptation more or less likely. Given that policy is a rule set for action, policy will play a critical role in society’s efforts to help wildlife cope with the challenge of climate change. To be effective, policy must provide clear goals and be...

  7. Preparing the Way for New Policy Regarding Adaptation of US Electricity Infrastructure to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, Melissa R [ORNL

    2013-10-01

    The following pages represent the status of policy regarding adaptation of the electric grid to climate change and proposed directions for new policy development. While strides are being made to understand the current climate and to predict hazards it may present to human systems, both the science and the policy remain at present in an analytical state. The policy proposed in this document involves first continued computational modeling of outcomes which will produce a portfolio of options to be considered in light of specific region-related risks. It is proposed that the modeling continue not only until reasonable policy at various levels of jurisdiction can be derived from its outcome but also on a continuing basis so that as improvements in the understanding of the state and trajectory of climate science along with advancements in technology arise, they can be incorporated into an appropriate and evolving policy.

  8. Air Pollution Policy in Europe. Quantifying the Interaction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bollen, J. [CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Den Haag (Netherlands); Brink, C. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2012-10-15

    In this study the Computable General Equilibrium Model called WorldScan is used to analyse interactions between European air pollution policies and policies aimed at addressing climate change. WorldScan incorporates the emissions of both greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, NH3 and PM2.5). WorldScan has been extended with equations that enable the simulation of end-of-pipe measures that remove pollutants without affecting the emission-producing activity itself. Air pollution policy will depend on end-of-pipe controls for not more than 50%, thus also at least 50% of the required emission reduction will come from changes in the use of energy through efficiency improvements, fuel switching and other structural changes in the economy. Greenhouse gas emissions thereby decrease which renders climate change policies less costly. Our results show that carbon prices will fall, but not more than 33%, although they could drop to zero when the EU agrees on a more stringent air pollution policy.

  9. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and

  10. Energy policies, liberalization and the framing of climate change policies in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherian, Anilla

    Global climate change has emerged a new environmental issue affecting developing countries particularly after the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in June 1992. This dissertation focuses on the factors which motivate Indian responses to global climate change at the international level. The study evaluates the relative impacts of two policy frames in the formulation of India's national climate change policy stance. The concept of "policy frames" refers to the idea that the definition of, and responses to a particular problem are constructed in terms of another more pressing and salient policy concern. A "policy frame" is an analytically constructed policy filter comprised of key, identifiable, policy features and existing resource constraints in a sector. The study traces the evolution of national energy (coal power and renewable energy) and environment sector policies under centralized planning based on a survey of a series of Five Year Plans (1970-1997). Characteristic sectoral policies are identified as constituting an "energy-related development policy frame" and an "environment-related development policy frame" under two distinct phases of national economic development--a managed economy and a liberalized economy. The study demonstrates that the 1991 shift towards phased economic liberalization resulted not only in a new set of energy (coal, power and renewable energy) policies and consequently an altered energy policy frame, but also in a largely unchanged set of environmental sector policies and consequently only a marginally altered environmental policy frame. The study demonstrates that the post-1991 energy policy changes together with existing energy resource constraints, constitute the dominant policy frame driving both the formulation of Indian policy stances at international climate change negotiations and also Indian responsiveness to coal, power, renewable energy, and climate change projects funded by the World Bank

  11. Exploring feedbacks between air pollution and climate policy

    OpenAIRE

    Chuwah, C.D.

    2015-01-01

    The climate of the Earth is changing in response to natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. Emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants have led to significant changes in the Earth’s climate systems and projections indicate that further extensive changes are likely. Increased scientific understanding into the processes responsible for climate change and the possible consequences of assumptions regarding future climate and air pollution policy is important to formulate effective r...

  12. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    , with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover......, while the insolation appears to be the dominant cause of the expected ice sheet reduction. The second part explores the atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming...... involves some of the same mechanisms in the two climate states. This thesis aims to investigate these mechanisms through climate model experiments. This two-part study has a special focus on the Arctic region, and the main paleoclimate experiments are supplemented by idealized experiments detailing...

  13. Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haug Constanze

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations.

  14. Climate change mitigation policy paradigms — national objectives and alignments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Garg, Amit; Christensen, John M.

    2014-01-01

    been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together...... to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals....

  15. Technology policy for climate change mitigation: a transatlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This workshop was the second climate policy conference jointly organized by RFF and IFRI in Paris. (The first one, ''How to Make Progress Post-Kyoto?'', was held on March 19, 2003). This Summary Paper is divided into two parts: The first part presents short summaries of all the presentations at the workshop (rationale and past experience in technology policies, the challenges and policy responses of the climate friendly technologies). The second part, which is an edited version of the closing remarks by Pierre Noel (Ifri), highlights some of the policy lessons that emerged from the workshop. (A.L.B.)

  16. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-01-15

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus an energy policy measures within the EU with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 24 percent by 2020 as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced its GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 24 percent of the energy used in 2020 must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 percent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order ta highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based an supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all EU Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and what will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  17. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  18. Climate Change and Public Health Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A; Vargo, Jason; Hoverter, Sara Pollock

    2017-03-01

    Climate change poses real and immediate impacts to the public health of populations around the globe. Adverse impacts are expected to continue throughout the century. Emphasizing co-benefits of climate action for health, combining adaptation and mitigation efforts, and increasing interagency coordination can effectively address both public health and climate change challenges.

  19. Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo; Stone, Dáithí; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-10-01

    The Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore different normative principles of justice relevant to climate change impacts, and ask how different forms of causal evidence of impacts drawn from detection and attribution research could inform policy approaches in accordance with justice considerations. We reveal a procedural injustice based on the imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries. This type of injustice needs to be considered in policy negotiations and decisions, and efforts strengthened to reduce it.

  20. distributive justice and human rights in climate policy

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    RAYAN_

    Keywords: Climate change, human rights, justice, policy, Paris Agreement .... the issues of historical responsibility, burden sharing, and differential obligations ... environment' (Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance.

  1. Mitigation and health: Climate policy not so costly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonocore, Jonathan

    2014-10-01

    Climate change mitigation can benefit human health by reducing air pollution. Research now shows that the economic value of health improvements can substantially outweigh mitigation costs, and that more flexible policies could have higher benefits.

  2. The Climate Policy Narrative for a Dangerously Warming World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanford, Todd [Union of Concerned Scientists; Frumhoff, Peter [Union of Concerned Scientists; Luers, Amy [Skoll Global Threats Fund; Gulledge, Jay [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures will likely rise above the 2 C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate.

  3. Emissions trading for climate policy - US and European perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernd Hansjuergens (ed.) [Martin Luther-Universitaet Halle-Wittenburg (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    The 1997 Kyoto Conference introduced emissions trading as a new policy instrument for climate protection. Bringing together scholars in the fields of economics, political science and law, this book provides a description, analysis and evaluation of different aspects of emissions trading as an instrument to control greenhouse gases. The authors analyse theoretical aspects of regulatory instruments for climate policy, provide an overview of US experience with market-based instruments, draw lessons from existing trading schemes for the control of greenhouse gases, and discuss options for emissions trading in climate policy. They also highlight the background of climate policy and instrument choice in the US and Europe and of the emerging new systems in Europe, particularly the new EU's directive for a CO{sub 2} emissions trading system. 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  4. Engaging Stakeholders in Climate and Clean Energy Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page discusses the value of state agency collaboration on planning and implementing climate and clean energy policies, as well as approaches for identifying and involving community stakeholders in program implementation.

  5. 气候政策建模研究综述:基于文献计量分析%Review on Climate Policy Modeling: An Analysis Based on Bibliometrics Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏一鸣; 米志付; 张皓

    2013-01-01

    Based on the online version of SCI-E from 1981 to 2012 and SSCI from 2002 to 2012,this study applies bibliometrics method to analyze the scientific production of climate policy modeling.By analyzing the basic characteristics of climate policy modeling,it is found that climate policy modeling is a kind of interdisciplinary field,involving environmental science,economic,meteorology and atmospheric science,geoscience,and management science.Developed countries have much stronger strength than developing countries,and the United States and Europe have the total predominance in this field.By frequency analysis of keywords,six hot research topics in climate policy modeling are summarized including greenhouse gas reduction,uncertainty,cost-benefit analysis,development scenario,technical change and equity.In addition,Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) is the most popular framework in climate policy modeling,and three main modeling methods are optimization models,Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models and Simulation Models.In the future,Behavior Models and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Models may have great application potential.Based on the synthetic analysis of Chinese research in climate policy modeling,this study gives several suggestions on the development in this field.Firstly,China should improve both quality and quantity of publications in this field.Secondly,China should train a group of scientific research personnel who concentrate on climate policy modeling.Thirdly,China should establish some specialized journals of this field,or drive related journals to pay attention to this field.%利用SCI-E和SSCI网络版数据库,使用文献计量方法对1981-2012年间气候政策建模领域的科学产出进行分析.通过对气候政策建模领域的基本特征分析,发现气候政策建模是一个多学科交叉的领域;发达国家在此领域的实力明显强于发展中国家,欧美占据主导地位.通过对关键词的词频分析,发

  6. Renewable energy technologies and climate change policies in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venkata, R.P. [Winrock International, New Delhi (India); Sinha, C.S. [Tata Energy and Resources Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Shukla, P.R. [Indian Inst. of Management, Ahmedabad (India)

    2001-07-01

    suggests that in the absence of stringent climate change policies, India is likely to go along the conventional fossil fuel path. The same can be true of many other developing countries. The policies in specific countries, especially developing nations with no binding carbon mitigation commitments, will be crucial for generating initial technology push, before the market will be ready to provide the demand pull in the long run. This paper provides a review of the renewable energy experience in India in terms of positive lessons and identified barriers, It looks at various policy options for India and develops, using macro-modelling tools, scenarios of the likely penetration of RETs under different climate change mitigation policy regimes. (author)

  7. Renewable energy technologies and climate change policies in India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venkata Ramana P [Winrock International, New Delhi (India); Chandra Shekhar Sinha [Tata Energy and Resources Institute, Washington, DC (United States)

    2001-07-01

    for India suggests that in the absence of stringent climate change policies, India is likely to go along the conventional fossil fuel path. The same can be true of many other developing countries. The policies in specific countries, especially developing nations with no binding carbon mitigation commitments, will be crucial for generating initial technology 'push', before the market will be ready to provide the demand 'pull' in the long run. This paper provides a review of the renewable energy experience in India in terms of positive lessons and identified barriers. It looks at various policy options for India and develops, using macro-modelling tools, scenarios of the likely penetration of RETs under different climate change mitigation policy regimes. (author)

  8. Mitigation and Adaptation within a Climate Policy Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term ques...

  9. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay

  10. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particul

  11. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particul

  12. Putting science to work in developing a climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cicerone, Ralph J

    2009-01-01

    The National Academy of Sciences is an honorific society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. This Viewpoint explores the interconnection between scientific research and policy making in developing a climate policy.

  13. Implications of Climate Policies for Future Aerosol: Health and Economic Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selin, N. E.; Wang, C.; Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Webster, M. D.; Reilly, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    We quantify the global changes in atmospheric aerosol (PM2.5) and their related health and economic impacts under a reference case and four greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios to 2050. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could reduce emissions of aerosol precursors, due to reduced energy use or cleaner energy generation. We assess these potential benefits using climate policy scenarios from the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, which consists of a set of coupled models for the climate, ecosystem, atmospheric chemistry and economy, at global scale. We use aerosol precursor emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from the IGSM to drive the MIT/NCAR version of the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3). We calculate the influence of future aerosol precursor emissions changes, climatic changes, and their combined effects on population-weighted average PM2.5 in sixteen global regions. We then use an economic and health model to quantify the implications of these changes for human disease and the global economy. Finally, we compare the magnitude of these changes to the cost of greenhouse gas policies. We find that global aerosol-related health and economic benefits associated with climate policies are smaller than estimated global costs of climate policy, but not negligible in the context of policy analysis.

  14. Cost-effectiveness of climate change policies for the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Rudd, Anne Elizabeth Sally

    2012-01-01

    This research project applies a hybrid energy-economy model to compare the cost-effectiveness of different climate change mitigation policies for the United States. Five policies are compared: (1) a technology regulation phasing out coal and natural gas generation, (2) Clean Electricity Standard, (3) Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standard, (4) Vehicles Emissions Standard, (5) economy-wide GHG tax. The cost of these policies is estimated using three different methodologies. The first methodol...

  15. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  16. Air Pollution Policy in Europe: Quantifying the Interaction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Johannes Bollen; Corjan Brink

    2012-01-01

    This paper (CPB/PBL) uses the computable general equilibrium model WorldScan to analyse interactions between EU’s air pollution and climate change policies. Covering the entire world and seven EU countries, WorldScan simulates economic growth in a neo-classical recursive dynamic framework, including emissions and abatement of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , N2O and CH4) and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, NH3 and PM2.5). Abatement includes the possibility of using end-of-pipe control options that remove...

  17. Science integration into US climate and ocean policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petes, Laura E.; Howard, Jennifer F.; Helmuth, Brian S.; Fly, Elizabeth K.

    2014-08-01

    The pace of environmental change lends urgency to the need for integration of climate considerations into ocean policy and management. A recent rapid expansion of ocean and climate policies provides a timely window of opportunity for the scientific community to inform and support these efforts. Lessons can be learned from successful initiatives, where scientists are working hand-in-hand with decision makers and managers to enhance ocean resilience. Looking ahead, the most pressing decision-needs associated with oceans and climate change should serve to prioritize and drive scientific efforts.

  18. Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randalls, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

  19. Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

    2012-01-01

    At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

  20. Normative aspects of climate adaptation policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, P.P.J.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van

    2011-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is a complex process of societal change and should be studied as such. Attention to issues of climate adaptation has increased considerably over the past few years. Until now, less attention has been paid to questions concerning normative issues of societal change. In

  1. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  2. Cooperation in global climate policy: potentialities and limitations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ipsen, D.; Roesch, R.; Scheffran, J. [Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre

    2001-03-01

    Since the Kyoto conference the role of the major developing countries (DCs) has been an issue involving a number of conflicting interests. While on the one hand we understand the reasons prompting DCs to refuse obligations to reduce climate gases, their sheer size makes at least the biggest DCs (China, India) major sources of climate gas emissions. Our intention here is to analyze the potentialities for a cooperative solution to this conflict. A conflict model is used to discuss the diverging interests of major DCs and industrialized countries (IC). Concentrating on the power-generation sector, we investigate the conditions for cooperation, i.e. for the DCs' voluntary participation in climate policy in their own interests. In the case of DCs with local environmental goals and DCs interested in joint implementation, secondary benefits provide he basis for cooperation. Thus, the DC's choice of technology becomes the crucial factor in conflict resolution. This enables us to formulate the conditions of cooperation interrelating the DC's choice of technology and the DCs' investment in joint implementation in such a way as to fulfill both global environmental goals and the DCs' national goals. The example of PR of China illustrates our reasoning. 29 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  3. Climate change and deforestation: the evolution of an intersecting policy domain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buizer, I.M.; Humphreys, D.; Jong, de W.

    2014-01-01

    Forests and climate change are increasingly dealt with as interconnected policy issues. Both the potential synergies and policy conflicts between forest conservation and restoration and climate change mitigation now receive sustained and high level attention from academic, policy analysis and

  4. Indonesian National Policy on Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Yun Santoso

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available From its arousal, the issue of climate change or global warming has become a distinct global trend setter in multidisciplinary discussion, including in the law perspective. Within legal discourse, the issue of climate change developed rapidly into several aspect, not only about adaptation nor mitigation, especially since the plurality of moral conviction relevant to the climate change facts. As a global matter, each country has the responsibility to adapt and mitigate with its own character and policy. This normative research aims to explore and describe in brief the Indonesian national policy in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Gradually, the contribution of Indonesia is getting firm and solid to the climate change regime, especially after the Bali Action Plan 2007.

  5. Meat consumption and climate policy; Vleesconsumptie en klimaatbeleid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.; Van Vuuren, D.P.; Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Eickhout, B.; Jeuken, M.; Van Oorschot, M. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Kabat, P. [Wageningen Universiteit, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2008-09-15

    Climate mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives little attention, although according to FAO it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of the total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have led to a revision of recommended meat consumption. Here, the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels is explored using a set of theoretical scenarios. By using an integrated assessment model, we found global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food, to have a dramatic effect on land use, with up to 2700 million ha of grassland and 100 million ha of cropland to be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission are reduced substantially. Assuming a global transition to recommended low-meat diets (and not accounting for the cost of this transition), the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilization target would be reduced by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes would thus not only have a substantial impact on global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies. [Dutch] Een mondiale afname van vleesconsumptie kan een behoorlijke bijdrage leveren aan vermindering van broeikasgasemissies. Daardoor kunnen de kosten van klimaatbeleid fors lager uitvallen. Dit blijkt uit een studie van het PBL, waarin de klimaatgevolgen van verschillende scenario's met verminderde vleesconsumptie, waaronder een mondiaal vleesarm dieet dat in vergelijking met de huidige Nederlandse vleesconsumptie een reductie van twee derde zou betekenen.

  6. Climate Change Policies for the XXIst Century: Mechanisms, Predictions and Recommendations

    CERN Document Server

    Khmelinskii, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes only very moderately to the observed warming, and that there is no climatic catastrophe in the making, independent on whether or not carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. In view of these developments, we discuss climate predictions for the XXIst century. Based on the solar activity tendencies, a new Little Ice Age is predicted by the middle of this century, with significantly lower global temperatures. We also show that IPCC climate models can't produce any information regarding future climate, due to essential physical phenomena lacking in those, and that the current budget deficit in many EU countries is mainly caused by the policies promoting renewable energies and other AGW-motivated measures. In absence of any predictable adverse climate...

  7. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

    2015-04-14

    Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

  8. The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-07-01

    Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario, there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.

  9. Climate policy: Equity and national mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenghelis, Dimitri

    2017-01-01

    A diverse range of approaches, including contributions based on national interest and local benefits of climate action, is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Now, research considers how equitable approaches may play a role.

  10. Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capon, Anthony G; Rissel, Chris E

    2010-01-01

    Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.

  11. Intensity-based climate change policies in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark

    2010-01-01

    To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from large industries the Canadian government proposed using a tradable emissions performance standard approach, where the intensity of emissions, rather than the absolute level, is regulated. Unlike a cap and trade system, an emissions performance standard does not guarantee a certain overall level of emission reductions, a fact that has led to significant criticism. However, because of the dynamics of performance standards, they may reduce concerns over reductions in international competitiveness in cases where a country has climate policies that are more aggressive than those of some of its trade partners. Likewise, a performance standard may mesh more efficiently with existing taxes and therefore cause less overall economic impact than an absolute cap and trade system. This paper considers the theoretical arguments for and against such a performance standard system and evaluates it in comparison to a cap and trade system using a dynamic general equilibrium model applied to Canada.

  12. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  13. A Municipal 'Climate Revolution'? The Shaping of Municipal Climate Change Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, Jens Villiam; Strobel, Bjarne W.

    2013-01-01

    This article investigates the climate policies formulated by Danish municipalities, and the huge variation in scope and ambition of these policies. Based on a survey covering all Danish municipalities, it is found that 72% of all municipalities have climate change action plans with annual CO2......-reduction goals between 0.9 and 5.9%. Size of municipality, degree of incorporation of climate change policies in the municipal administration, presence of ‘green organizations’, as well as membership of national and international climate networks, are found to be of importance for the level of ambition...... of the climate plans. Denne artikel undersøger danske kommuners klimapolitik, og den store variation i denne. Med udgangspunkt i en spørgeskemaundersøgelse omfattende alle danske kommuner konstateres det, at 72% af kommunerne har en klimahandlingsplan, som fastsætter årlige CO2-reduktioner for kommunen som...

  14. Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather

    2012-01-01

    This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

  15. Climate impacts, climate policies, and the role of adaptation through the lens of water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.

    2016-12-01

    Recognizing the critical role of water in human-Earth system interactions, most integrated assessment models are moving to incorporate water within their modeling frameworks and climate change impacts more broadly. However, none of the IA models used in generating the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) incorporated the potential feedbacks of water limitations on other modeled systems, meaning that these assessments did not consider the joint interactions between hydrologic and human systems simultaneously adapting to and mitigating climate change. Yet, hydrologic systems could impose severe limitations on both energy and land decisions. Also, previous efforts have been limited to taking information from IA and Earth system models and passing that information to global water management and hydrologic models with the implicit assumption that all unmet water demands are taken from non-renewable water resources, generally fossil groundwater. However, extracting and depleting water resources (e.g., aquifers) could have drastic impacts on both energy and land use systems and the ability to mitigate climate change. In this study, we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), where interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources interact simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system, to investigate: 1) how water scarcity affects energy and land use decisions as well as mitigation policies, 2) the effects of climate change impacts on the food-energy-water nexus, 3) how these impacts evolve in the context of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with specific details on water technologies, 4) the effects of different adaptation measures and their associate investment costs, and 5) the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated, as our simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter

  16. The role of economic policy in climate change adaption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konrad, Kai A. [Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance, Munich (Germany); Thum, Marcel [Technical Univ. Dresden (Germany). Faculty of Business and Economics

    2012-10-15

    This paper assesses the role of the public sector in adaptation to climate change. We first offer a definition and categorisation of climate change adaptation. We then consider the primary economic principles that can guide the assignment of adaptation tasks to either the private or the public sector, as well as those guiding assignment within the public sector itself. We find that the role of the state in adaptation policy is limited. We identify information policy, the provision of a suitable regulatory framework in some markets, the formation of human capital and policies that foster economic growth and technological and medical knowledge as the main areas in which the public sector has a role in climate change adaptation.

  17. Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Daniel H.

    2015-02-01

    Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions -- formal and informal, bilateral and multilateral -- among parties to help build the mutual trust needed for increased cooperation. A wealth of theoretical, empirical and experimental evidence supports the polycentric approach.

  18. Lessons for climate policy from The Great Stink of London

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skuce, A.

    2012-12-01

    A rapidly growing population and the introduction of the flush toilet in nineteenth-century London caused a crisis with sewage pollution in the River Thames (Halliday, 1999). There were decades of delays in implementing solutions owing to: inadequate governance institutions; political inertia; difficulties with financing; opposition from vested interests; scientific uncertainties; and technological challenges. Effective counter-measures were started only once the problem arose, quite literally, under the noses of parliamentarians. There are parallels, some of them pointed out earlier by Alley et al (2010), between the sewage crisis in Victorian London and the current problem with climate change. Both involve the unsustainable use of a common resource (a river, the atmosphere) for the unconstrained disposal of human waste products. Alley (2011) estimated that the costs of providing clean water and sanitation are comparable to the expected costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the similarities, the climate change issue is actually much more difficult because of: a) the unequal and uncertain global distribution of cause and effect; b) its long, intergenerational time lines; c) the insufficiency of adequate institutions, conventions or the tools— political, moral or economic—for tackling the climate crisis. This analysis is consistent with the model proposed by Gardiner (2011) in his book A Perfect Moral Storm. The three "storms" he identifies, the global, intergenerational and theoretical storms, combine in a powerful synergy to create a challenge of unprecedented intractability, providing opportunities for what Gardiner calls moral corruption: the obscuring of the buck-passing and procrastination that characterizes climate policy today. In Victorian London, the crucial steps to solve the sewage crises were not taken until the stench from the River Thames during the hot summer of 1858 rendered the House of Commons uninhabitable. A greater stink of a

  19. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. Report for Policy Advisors and Policy Makers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndes, Goran [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden); Bird, Nell [Joanneum Research (Austria); Cowle, Annette [National Centre for Rural Greenhouse Gas Research (Australia)

    2010-07-01

    The report addresses a much debated issue - bioenergy and associated land use change, and how the climate change mitigation from use of bioenergy can be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use change. The purpose of the report was to produce an unbiased, authoritative statement on this topic aimed especially at policy advisors and policy makers.

  20. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

  1. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  2. Climate policy through changing consumption choices: Options and obstacles for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hertwich, E.G.

    2014-01-01

    While national climate policy can address countries’ production or consumption, climate mitigation via changes in consumption has previously received relatively little attention in climate policy literature. In the absence of an effective international climate policy, the focus on consumption is gai

  3. Energy policy design and China’s local climate governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ting, Guan; Delman, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    This study probes into climate policy design at city level in China, with Hangzhou’s energy efficiency and renewable energy policies between 2005 and 2014 as a case. The study applies a political action arena approach to accentuate the importance of different normative preferences behind climate...... energy efficiency is a more mature and comprehensive political action arena than renewable energy. The study also finds that there has been a significant shift away from preferences towards command-and-control to more marketbased instruments, while cooperative governance instruments are still...

  4. EU CLIMATE POLICY FROM KYOTO TO DURBAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ELENA ANDREEVSKA

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks posed by climate change are real and its impacts are already taking place. The biggest challenge about climate change is that there is no one single answer, no one single solution. This characteristic, together with the long history of political frictions and disputes worsened by environmental stresses suggests that global climatic changes have the potential to exacerbate existing international tensions. On December 31, 2012, the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period will expire. Unless states agree to a second commitment period, requiring a further round of emissions cuts, the Protocol will no longer impose any quantitative limits on states' greenhouse gas emissions. Although, as a legal matter, the Protocol will continue in force, it will be a largely empty shell, doing little if anything to curb global warming. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, which focused exclusively on developed country emissions, the ongoing negotiations on a post-2012 climate change regime have also addressed developing country mitigation actions, without which a solution to the climate change problem is impossible. This has made the current negotiations as much between developed and developing countries as between the U.S. and the European Union. Key issues include: Legal Form; Regulatory approach; and Differentiation. By the Durban conference in December 2011 the EU needs to decide whether - and how - it will sign-up to a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. This article focuses on the European Union needs to decide whether – and – how it will sign- up a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol. Because asking, whether others will act is the wrong question. The real question is whether signing- up to some form of second Kyoto commitment period will support Europe’s fundamental interests.

  5. Status of Norwegian climate policy 2011; Statusrapport for norsk klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Norwegians are generally little impressed what Norway as a society has achieved in the climate policy. This is consistent with the actual situation as it is mapped in this year's edition of the Status of Norwegian climate policy. The results obtained in a survey by TNS Gallup which was commissioned by BI Centre for Climate Strategy in connection with the disclosure of the agency's annual status report for the Norwegian climate policy. 1000 Norwegians have been asked about how good or bad they perceive the overall results in various areas of climate policy. Even for climate-friendly heating, which is the area where most perceive that there has been progress, only 39% of the population consider the results as very good or good. In addition to heating, energy efficiency in buildings, Norway's international efforts, research on climate technology and information to the public areas where most Norwegians still think the results are good, and which are the least dissatisfied.Year Status Report on Norwegian climate policy is a joint project between the organization Holder de ord (Do they keep promises) and BI Centre for Climate Strategy. The report shows that people have a fairly accurate picture of climate policy. In most areas, there is little substantial progress since the Low Emission submitted its recommendations in 2006. It is symptomatic that climate policy was recently delayed again - now to 2012. While it is a positive development in the areas that are at the top of people's list. Since 2006, for example, there has been a substantial expansion of district heating in Norway, and building standards have become much stricter when it comes to energy use. Motor vehicle taxes are changed and greenhouse emissions from new cars is 25% lower than in 2006. Norway also play a constructive role, both in relation to the negotiations at the UN on a new climate deal, but also for example in relation to a global sectoral agreement for shipping that was signed

  6. Stochastic Climate Theory and Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Franzke, Christian L E; Berner, Judith; Williams, Paul D; Lucarini, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochast...

  7. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Conservation policies and planning under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

    2011-01-01

    distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

  9. The climate policy of the EC - too hot to handle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skjaerseth, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    Has the climate policy of the European Community (EC) become stronger According to our criteria for strength, it has not. First, even with perfect and timely implementation of the climate package, there is no guarantee that the Community will succeed in curbing the anticipated growth of future CO[sub 2] emissions by the year 2000, to at least 12% of 1990 levels. Part of the decrease is expected from quite uncertain ''educative effects'', while 1.5% is left to ''new activities foreseen''. In addition, the expanding transport sector, which formed a central part of earlier proposals, has to a large extent been left out of the Community's climate policy. The stabilization target was adopted in October 1990; in 1991, CO[sub 2] emissions increased by about 4% in the Community. Secondly, the adoption and implementation of the climate package is uncertain. No legal proposals presented in the spring of 1992 have yet been adopted by the Council. Moreover, the proposed energy/carbon tax, which is to account for half of expected reductions, will not be implemented until other OECD countries follow suit. Thirdly, despite the clear political signals of the Community stabilization objective, almost half the member countries have no national goal and only three have a national policy on how to achieve their goals. Thus, from the remarkably smooth process up to goal formulation, the Community's climate policy seems to have been substantially watered down. On the other hand, the climate policy of the EC currently exists as a political commitment, and is thus quite sensitive to general political developments and fluctuations both within the Community and outside. 129 refs., 9 tabs.

  10. Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    ecological approach was given global scope by the “ Brundtland Report ” of the World Commission on Environment and Development. Articulating the goal of...Environmental Policy Resources, Science, and Industry Division Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for...Directorate for Information Operations and Reports , 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that

  11. Co-benefits of air quality and climate change policies on air quality of the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Luca; Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Unal, Alper; Kindap, Tayfun; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world where significant impacts due to climate changes are predicted to occur in the future. Observations and model simulations are used to provide to the policy makers scientifically based estimates of the necessity to adjust national emission reductions needed to achieve air quality objectives in the context of a changing climate, which is not only driven by GHGs, but also by short lived climate pollutants, such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols. There is an increasing interest and need to design cost-benefit emission reduction strategies, which could improve both regional air quality and global climate change. In this study we used the WRF-CMAQ air quality modelling system to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone and particulate matter concentrations in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and to understand how this contribution could change in different future scenarios. We have investigated four different future scenarios for year 2050 defined during the European Project CIRCE: a "business as usual" scenario (BAU) where no or just actual measures are taken into account; an "air quality" scenario (BAP) which implements the National Emission Ceiling directive 2001/81/EC member states of the European Union (EU-27); a "climate change" scenario (CC) which implements global climate policies decoupled from air pollution policies; and an "integrated air quality and climate policy" scenario (CAP) which explores the co-benefit of global climate and EU-27 air pollution policies. The BAP scenario largely decreases summer ozone concentrations over almost the entire continent, while the CC and CAP scenarios similarly determine lower decreases in summer ozone but extending all over the Mediterranean, the Middle East countries and Russia. Similar patterns are found for winter PM concentrations; BAP scenario improves pollution levels only in the Western EU countries, and the CAP scenario determines

  12. Intra-party policy entrepreneurship and party goals. The case of political parties’ climate policy preferences in Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Little, Conor

    2017-01-01

    This study contributes to the growing literature on the domestic politics of climate change by examining the climate policy preferences of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Labour Party over 20 years. Bringing the concept of ‘policy entrepreneurship’ into the study of intra-party politics, it uses...... secondary data, party documents, publicly-available information and a series of in-depth interviews to develop an understanding of intra-party policy entrepreneurship and political parties’ climate policy preferences. It finds that office-seeking incentives have tended to trump the activities of individuals...... who have engaged in policy entrepreneurship with the aim of strengthening their parties’ climate policy preferences. In instances where office-seeking incentives for climate policy have been strong, they have often contributed to changes in policy preferences, whether or not intra-party policy...

  13. State Policies on School Climate and Bully Prevention Efforts: Challenges and Opportunities for Deepening State Policy Support for Safe and Civil Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piscatelli, Jennifer; Lee, Chiqueena

    2011-01-01

    The National School Climate Center (NSCC) completed a 50-state policy scan on state school climate and anti-bullying policies to better understand the current state policy infrastructure supporting the development of positive school climates. This policy brief examines the current status of school climate and anti-bullying policies in each state,…

  14. An overview of domestic aspects in US climate policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solange Reis Ferreira

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article shows how domestic aspects influence the United States national and international climate policy. To accomplish the task, the authors analyzes the discussions when Bill Clinton was ruling the country, a time during which global discussions were forwarded. The paper recalls the debate in the Bush administration and the growing polarization since Barack Obama took office.

  15. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  16. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  17. Climate change policy of Germany, UK and USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Wurff, R.; Boersema, J.J.; Reijnders, L.

    2009-01-01

    International climate change politics provides a clear example of how cultural differences, conflicts of interest and scientific assessments interact to shape environmental policy-making. This section will explore these interrelationships by analysing the role of the United States, the United

  18. Climate change policy of Germany, UK and USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. van der Wurff

    2009-01-01

    International climate change politics provides a clear example of how cultural differences, conflicts of interest and scientific assessments interact to shape environmental policy-making. This section will explore these interrelationships by analysing the role of the United States, the United Kingdo

  19. The application of the GWP concept in climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen LHJM; Fransen W; LLO; KNMI

    1997-01-01

    Both the scientific aspects of the Global Warming Potential concept (GWP) and its use in climate policy are analysed and discussed in this document. GWPs are indexed numbers to allow assessment of the relative contribution of emissions of long-living greenhouse gases to the enhancement of the

  20. Fair division theory and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helm, C. [Technical University Darmstadt (Germany). Department of Law and Economics

    2008-09-30

    This paper analyzes the fair division of common property resources when monetary compensations are feasible. A prominent example is the fair division of the atmosphere's limited absorptive capacity for greenhouse gases. I propose a solution that is Pareto efficient and satisfies the axiomatic fair division criteria of individual rationality, stand-alone upper bound, and a version of envy-freeness. The latter criterion is adapted to problems where monetary compensations can be used to facilitate the fair division of the common resource. Applied to climate change, the solution implies that developing countries should participate in emission reduction efforts, but should be fully compensated for their incremental abatement costs.

  1. MCA4climate - a practical framework for pro-development climate policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trevor, Morgan

    multiple benefits from boosting water supplies and improving agriculture to maintaining natural sea defences and nurseries for fish. The 17th Conference of the Parties meeting in Durban, South Africa, later this year presents the world with another opportunity to advance the climate agenda and co...... on climate policymaking from around the world and uses an innovative approach to assessing policies that ensures that climate policies and strategies take full account of developmental concerns and objectives. The MCA4climate initiative reflects UNEP’s mission to provide leadership and encourage partnership....... Drawing upon best practices, tried and tested in other parts of the world, is clearly an advantage. The MCA4climate, a new UNEP initiative, is designed to assist policymakers, particularly in the developing world, in that endeavour. It o”ers concrete guidance and recommendations on a number of critical...

  2. Using a policy mix to combat climate change. An economic evaluation of policies in the German electricity sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehmann, Paul

    2010-01-28

    policy mix research. Simplified assumptions about policy design in existing models are substituted by more complex design characteristics as they can be found for actually existing policy mixes. Thereby, the book approaches economic theory of a policy mix to real-world conditions and increases its relevance for actual policy-making. It is shown that the consideration of complex real policy design may deliver results and policy recommendations that are contrary to those derived under a simplistic model. Two selected policy combinations are considered in particular: an emissions trading scheme combined with a feed-in tariff for renewable electricity generation, and with a tax on emissions or output. Economic theory suggests that the combination of emissions trading and a feed-in tariff is justified when a pollution externality is reinforced by spillovers related to learning-by-doing. Nevertheless, it is demonstrated in this book that the expected dynamic welfare gains of such a policy mix may be impaired by inefficient interactions when two characteristics of real feed-in tariff design are taken into account: the payment of the tariff irrespectively of the prevailing electricity price and the funding of the tariff by an add-on to the electricity price. Existing economic analyses also point out that the combination of emissions trading and a tax is likely to be inefficient in mitigating climate change when the incentives of both policies overlap, i.e. when firms have to hold an allowance and pay a tax in addition for each unit of emission. The resulting conclusion is usually to abolish the tax. However, it is emphasized in this book that this conclusion may be flawed in the real world where taxes address a variety of policy objectives and criteria, such as raising fiscal revenues or promoting equity. Given these restrictions, this book addresses three important issues, which have been neglected so far: (1) it identifies factors that drive the actual extent of inefficient

  3. Speaking truth to power revisited: science, policy and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, D. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Magdeburg (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserforschung; Krueck, C. [VDI-Technologiezentrum Physikalische Technologien, Duesseldorf (Germany). Abt. Zukuenftige Technologien

    2000-07-01

    The issue of climate change from the perspectives of climate change scientists and climate policy makers is discussed using results from two survey questionnaires. Emphasis is given to the German context. Included is the self assessment of the state of the art of the climate sciences and the importance assigned to different sources of information by policy makers. Conclusions indicate that policy makers rely on a number of sources other than the direct results of science, and have assigned a greater sense of urgency to the issue of climate change than have scientists. (orig.) [German] Auf Grundlage der Ergebnisse zweier Fragebogenaktionen wird diskutiert, wie sich die Problematik von Klimaveraenderungen aus der Perspektive von Klimaforschern und aus der Perspektive von mit Klimapolitik befassten Entscheidungstraegern darstellt. Die Betonung liegt auf den Verhaeltnissen in Deutschland. Eingeschlossen ist eine Einschaetzung des aktuellen Standes der Klimaforschung durch die Wissenschaftler selbst sowie der Bedeutung, welche von politischen Entscheidungstraegern verschiedenen Informationsquellen beigemessen wird. Es zeigt sich, dass sich politische Entscheidungstraeger auf zahlreiche Informationsquellen verlassen, die nur indirekt die Resultate der Klimaforschung wiedergeben und, dass dieser Personenkreis das Problem der Klimaveraenderungen als draengender ansieht als die Wissenschaftler selbst. (orig.)

  4. Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

  5. Unilateral or Reciprocal Climate Policy? Experimental Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Bernauer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The traditional political economy account of global climate change governance directs our attention to fundamental collective action problems associated with global public goods provision, resulting from positive or negative externalities as well as freeriding. The governance architecture of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol uses the traditional approaches of international diplomacy for addressing such challenges: legally binding commitments based on principles of reciprocity and (fair cost/burden sharing via formalized carbon-budgeting. Yet, the 2015 Paris Agreement has essentially abandoned this approach, as it now operates on the basis of internationally coordinated and monitored unilateralism. On the presumption that public opinion matters for government policy, we examine how citizens view this shift in climate policy from reciprocity to unilateralism, after many years of exposure to strong reciprocity rhetoric by governments and stakeholders. To that end, we fielded a survey experiment in China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG emitter. The results show that there is, perhaps surprisingly, strong and robust public support for unilateral, non-reciprocal climate policy. To the extent China is interested in pushing ahead with ambitious and thus costly GHG reduction policies, our results suggest that China can leverage segments of public support in order to overcome domestic obstacles to GHG mitigation policies.

  6. Unilateral or Reciprocal Climate Policy? Experimental Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Bernauer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The traditional political economy account of global climate change governance directs our attention to fundamental collective action problems associated with global public goods provision, resulting from positive or negative externalities as well as freeriding. The governance architecture of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol uses the traditional approaches of international diplomacy for addressing such challenges: legally binding commitments based on principles of reciprocity and (fair cost/burden sharing via formalized carbon-budgeting. Yet, the 2015 Paris Agreement has essentially abandoned this approach, as it now operates on the basis of internationally coordinated and monitored unilateralism. On the presumption that public opinion matters for government policy, we examine how citizens view this shift in climate policy from reciprocity to unilateralism, after many years of exposure to strong reciprocity rhetoric by governments and stakeholders. To that end, we fielded a survey experiment in China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG emitter. The results show that there is, perhaps surprisingly, strong and robust public support for unilateral, non-reciprocal climate policy. To the extent China is interested in pushing ahead with ambitious and thus costly GHG reduction policies, our results suggest that China can leverage segments of public support in order to overcome domestic obstacles to GHG mitigation policies.

  7. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  8. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty

  9. Policy modeling for industrial energy use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

    2003-03-01

    The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

  10. Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

    2016-06-01

    Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2-15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

  11. The Adaptation Policy Paradox: the Implementation Deficit of Policies Framed as Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann Dupuis

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of adaptation policies suffers from barriers and limits; even though adaptation is now set on the political agendas of developed and developing countries, surprisingly few examples of concrete policy realizations are found in comparative assessments. We investigate how the framings of adaptation as a policy problem can relate to tractability issues in implementation. We distinguish three framings of adaptation: climate change adaptation (CCA, climate variability adaptation (CVA, and vulnerability-centered adaptation (VCA that imply conflicting interpretations of the collective problem to be solved and the goals to be attained through policy solutions. Through the methodology of comparative case studies, we conduct an empirical analysis of three implementation processes in India and Switzerland, and examine how adaptation framings translate into formal policy design and concrete policy realizations. We find that, regardless of the adaptive capacity of the country where implementation takes place, the CCA framing meets more tractability issues than the VCA framing. Therefore, we discuss the paradox that the innovative and additional CCA types of policies, advocated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, are more likely to face a deficit in implementation according to our analysis.

  12. China's climate-change policy 1988-2011: From zero to hero?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stensdal, Iselin

    2012-11-01

    This report describes the evolution of China's domestic climate-change policy over the period 1988-2011, using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to explore the policy change. Policy development has been gradual, with the most notable change occurring in 2007, when the National Climate Change Programme elevated climate change to a national policy issue. Within the climate-change policy subsystem there emerged an advocacy coalition - the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition - urging that climate change should be taken into consideration in relevant policies. The ACF points to socioeconomic development and the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition's policy-oriented learning as explanations for the development of climate-change policy in China.(auth)

  13. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system...... the impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate...... the response at high northern latitudes, while the direct insolation impact is more dominant in the tropics. On Greenland, the simulated warming is low compared to the ice core reconstructions. Surface mass balance calculations indicate that the oceanic conditions favor increased accumulation in the southeast...

  14. Advancing methodological thinking and practice for development-compatible climate policy planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scrieciu, S. Şerban; Belton, Valerie; Chalabi, Zaid

    2014-01-01

    body of competitive general equilibrium optimization models and cost-benefit analysis techniques of aggregation and monetization. However, its recommendations for climate action are often based on highly restrictive underlying assumptions, which have been increasingly criticized for being too......There are growing calls for identifying climate mitigation and adaptation policy packages that would also support human development objectives at the national and regional levels. The literature on climate policy analysis and impact assessment continues to be driven by standard economics with its......-adaptationdevelopment interactions, accounting for institutional barriers, and drawing on a combination of an emerging body of new climate economics and multi-criteria decision analysis is suggested. We purport that, by using this framework, multi-dimensional impacts and multistakeholder interests could be better represented when...

  15. Food Trade and Its Water Footprint Under Climate and Policy Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konar, M.; Hussein, Z.; Hanasaki, N.

    2014-12-01

    Trade has become increasingly important in the global redistribution of food, with important ramifications for food security, water resources, and transportation infrastructure, among others. Thus, it essential to understand how food trade and its water footprint may change in the future. To this end, we project international food trade, as well as its water footprint, under climate and policy scenarios for the year 2030. We use the H08 global hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to staple crop yields and evapotranspiration. Using the yield changes projected with the H08 model, we estimate the bilateral trade of staple crops using the Global Trade Analysis Project model. We combine these projections to obtain the water footprint of food trade, global network properties, and trade-based water savings across scenarios. Our findings indicate the relative importance of near-future climate and policy scenarios for food trade and its water footprint.

  16. Sea Change: US Climate Policy Prospects under the Obama Administration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roman, Mikael (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)); Carson, Marcus (Dept. of Sociology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)). e-mail: mikael.roman@sei.se

    2009-03-15

    This report has been produced for the Swedish Government's Sustainability Commission in preparation for the Swedish EU Presidency during the second half of 2009, and consequent Swedish leadership of the EU delegation in the COP-15 negotiations in Copenhagen. The central task of the report is to provide an overview of the key factors that will condition the near-term development of United States climate policy, with a view to the eventual likelihood of the US signing and ratifying a new global agreement in the upcoming negotiations on climate change. While we take note of the importance of factors external to US politics, such as potential developments in bilateral discussions with China and other major greenhouse gas emitters, our analysis focuses primarily on factors that influence US domestic policy dynamics. To accomplish that task, the subsequent pages address three main questions. First, what are the stated goals and contours of the Obama Administration's policies regarding climate change? Second, what are the opportunities and obstacles connected with realizing this agenda - from negotiating and deciding, then effectively implementing it - and via which pathways of action are we likely to see important initiatives being moved? Finally, what are the implications for the negotiations in Copenhagen and beyond? We conclude by identifying a number of important considerations that should be taken into account in preparations for the Swedish EU Presidency and the climate negotiations in Copenhagen

  17. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  18. Providing Climate Policy Makers With a Strong Scientific Base (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzik, E.

    2009-12-01

    Scientists can and should inform public policy decisions in the Arctic. But the pace of climate change in the polar world has been occurring far more quickly than most scientists have been able to predict. This creates problems for decision-makers who recognize that difficult management decisions have to be made in matters pertaining to wildlife management, cultural integrity and economic development. With sea ice melting, glaciers receding, permafrost thawing, forest fires intensifying, and disease and invasive species rapidly moving north, the challenge for scientists to provide climate policy makers with a strong scientific base has been daunting. Clashing as this data sometimes does with the “traditional knowledge” of indigenous peoples in the north, it can also become very political. As a result the need to effectively communicate complex data is more imperative now than ever before. Here, the author describes how the work of scientists can often be misinterpreted or exploited in ways that were not intended. Examples include the inappropriate use of scientific data in decision-making on polar bears, caribou and other wildlife populations; the use of scientific data to debunk the fact that greenhouse gases are driving climate change, and the use of scientific data to position one scientist against another when there is no inherent conflict. This work will highlight the need for climate policy makers to increase support for scientists working in the Arctic, as well as illustrate why it is important to find new and more effective ways of communicating scientific data. Strategies that might be considered by granting agencies, scientists and climate policy decision-makers will also be discussed.

  19. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic

  20. Climate for Collaboration: Analysis of US and EU Lessons and Opportunities in Energy and Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vita, A.; de Connick, H.; McLaren, J.; Cochran, J.

    2009-11-01

    A deepening of cooperation between the United States and the European Union requires mutual trust, and understanding of current policies, challenges and successes. Through providing such understanding among policymakers, industry and other stakeholders in both economies, opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on climate change and energy policy emerge. This paper sets out by discussing the environmental, legislative, and economic contexts of the EU and US as related to climate. This context is essential to understanding how cap-and-trade, renewable energy and sustainable transportation policies have taken shape in the EU and the US, as described in Chapter 3.1. For each of these policies, a barrier analysis and discussion is provided. Chapter 4 builds off this improved understanding to listobservations and possible lessons learned. The paper concludes with recommendations on topics where EU and US interests align, and where further cooperation could prove beneficial.

  1. Normal forms for reduced stochastic climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Majda, A.J.; Franzke, C.; Crommelin, D.T.

    The systematic development of reduced low-dimensional stochastic climate models from observations or comprehensive highdimensional climate models is an important topic for atmospheric low-frequency variability, climate sensitivity, and improved extended range forecasting. Here techniques from

  2. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebler, Michael [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany); Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Environmental Economics and World Trade; Loeschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  3. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  4. ''Measuring the Costs of Climate Change Policies''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montgomery, W. D.; Smith, A. E.; Biggar, S. L.; Bernstein, P.M.

    2003-05-09

    Studies of the costs of climate change policies have utilized a variety of measures or metrics for summarizing costs. The leading economic models have utilized GNP, GDP, the ''area under a marginal cost curve,'' the discounted present value of consumption, and a welfare measure taken directly from the utility function of the model's representative agent (the ''Equivalent Variation''). Even when calculated using a single model, these metrics do not necessarily give similar magnitudes of costs or even rank policies consistently. This paper discusses in non-technical terms the economic concepts lying behind each concept, the theoretical basis for expecting each measure to provide a consistent ranking of policies, and the reasons why different measures provide different rankings. It identifies a method of calculating the ''Equivalent Variation'' as theoretically superior to the other cost metrics in ranking policies. When regulators put forward new economic or regulatory policies, there is a need to compare the costs and benefits of these new policies to existing policies and other alternatives to determine which policy is most cost-effective. For command and control policies, it is quite difficult to compute costs, but for more market-based policies, economists have had a great deal of success employing general equilibrium models to assess a policy's costs. Not all cost measures, however, arrive at the same ranking. Furthermore, cost measures can produce contradictory results for a specific policy. These problems make it difficult for a policy-maker to determine the best policy. For a cost measures to be of value, one would like to be confident of two things. First one wants to be sure whether the policy is a winner or loser. Second, one wants to be confident that a measure produces the correct policy ranking. That is, one wants to have confidence in a policy measure's ability to correctly rank

  5. The New Phase of the Global Policy on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Calanter

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, a phenomenon that occurs worldwide, is one of the great challenges of our times.The scientific community has repeatedly drawn policy makers attention to the imperative need to adopt ofpreventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to what constitutes a threat to the normal course of life onEarth. Adoption and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, with its ratification by Russia, in February 2005represented a major step forward in the global struggle against climate change. In this moment, however, theconclusion in 2012 of the commitment period for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases provided by theProtocol, and the brokenness of this period, put in front of the international community the need for furtherpolicy measures to prevent and combating climate change and its effects.

  6. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-19

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

  7. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  8. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-01

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents’ attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals’ demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several “upstream” climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies. PMID:26729883

  9. Madagascar's future climate change intensified actions and policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC), we reflect on the persistent .... Madagascar is a global biodiversity hotspot, but its economy, as reflected in its ..... business models for the development and delivery of physical goods and ...

  10. The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnell, N.W.; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Isaac, M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4 °C by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at

  11. The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnell, N.W.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Isaac, M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4 °C by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at

  12. SUSTAINING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION—POLICY, TECHNOLOGY, AND SOCIETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Rechkemmer

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In a world that is becoming more and more exposed and vulnerable to the effects of global climate change, combining integrated risk assessment tools with effective strategies for both mitigation and adaptation is a key prerogative for policy-making. With the focus of both researchers and decision-makers gradually shifting from observing and assessing the bio-physical aspects of climate change to a more human and society centered understanding of the nature of the problem, the social, behavioral, economic and technological aspects have entered center stage of the public discourse. Responses to the climate change challenge have to establish an optimal interplay between mitigation, adaptation and socio-economic instruments. Yet, given the band-width and scale of the climate problematique and its projected impacts, very ambitious mitigation measures have to be undertaken without delays, a fact that is particularly true for emerging economies with their very rapid and unprecedented growth rates, both in GDP and GHG emissions terms. The challenge for the next years is to harmonize poverty eradication and attaining the Millenium Development Goals through stable economic growth with mitigating the effects of climate change. Therefore, “inclusive green growth” has become the motto of the day. But how can this goal be achieved? Obviously, quite fundamental changes have to be introduced that affect both the production and the consumption sectors and allow for real innovation in technologies and energy, in urban mobility, infrastructure and transportation grids. This paper illustrates the deep social and societal nature of climate change response strategies, especially in the area of mitigation, and shows that transitions to green and low-carbon economies will have to embed policies, incentive schemes and economic instruments in a larger societal context of social learning and behavioral change.

  13. Chinas carbon-intensity target: climate actors and policy developments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stensdal, Iselin

    2012-11-01

    China has become the largest GHG emitting country, and announced in 2009 its first policy objective measured in carbon emissions. The carbon-intensity target is to reduce the carbon intensity by 40-45 % by 2020 compared to 200 levels. Since then there has been further policy developments in order to attain the reduction carbon intensity and steer China towards a low-carbon development. The 12th 5-year plan (2011-2015) is strong on incentives for reducing China's carbon intensity such as energy conservation measures and the establishment of new market-based mechanisms. While the central government forms the policies, the implementation is dependent on a range of actors. In addition to the climate change bureaucracy, the positive forces and actors on GHG mitigation is presented. All in all, there are promising developments in China for the years to come.(auth)

  14. Free Markets, Property Rights and Climate Change: How to Privatize Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham Dawson

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The goal has been to devise a strategy that protects as much as possible the rights and liberties of all agents, both users of fossil fuels and people whose livelihoods and territories are at risk if the anthropogenic global warming (AGW hypothesis is true. To achieve this goal the standard climate policy instruments, taxes and emissions trading, should be discontinued. There are weaknesses in the theoretical perspectives used to justify these policy instruments and climate science cannot provide the knowledge that would be needed to justify their implementation. In their place I propose a privatised policy, based on Austrian and libertarian frameworks of thought, which share an interpretation of climate change as a putative interpersonal conflict rather than market failure. The use of fossil fuels, like any other economic activity, should be subject to side-constraints designed to avoid the infringement of other people’s property rights. Tort litigation on the basis of strict liability would protect these rights, insofar as they need protecting. By providing a public arena for the competitive testing of scientific hypotheses concerning climate change, such litigation would also promote the public understanding and even the advancement of climate science.

  15. A framework for facilitating dialogue between policy planners and local climate change adaptation professionals: Cases from Sweden, Canada and Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larsen, R.K.; Swartling, A.G.; Powell, N.; May, B.; Plummer, R.; Simonsson, L.; Osbeck, M.

    2012-01-01

    The dominant approach to mainstreaming climate adaptation into sectoral policies relies on an ‘upscaling’ model in which it is envisaged to extract lessons from local change processes to inspire generic sub-national and national policies. One of the central methodological questions, which remain

  16. A Pedagogical "Toy" Climate Model

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, J I

    2010-01-01

    A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and warm interglacials, while intermediate states are unstable. This is in qualitative accord with the paleoclimatic data. The present climate may be unstable, with or without anthropogenic interventions such as CO$_2$ emission, unless there is additional stabilizing feedback such as "geoengineering".

  17. A Climate System Model, Numerical Simulation and Climate Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Qingcun; WANG Huijun; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    @@ The implementation of the project has lasted for more than 20 years. As a result, the following key innovative achievements have been obtained, ranging from the basic theory of climate dynamics, numerical model development and its related computational theory to the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models:

  18. Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

    2008-06-01

    Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

  19. Climate change policy instruments in a least regrets context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lenstra, W.J.; Bonney, M. [Ministry of Housing, The Hague (Netherlands). Spatial Planning and Environment

    1995-12-31

    The Dutch CO{sub 2} target - which was set down in the National Environmental Policy Plan Plus (NMP-plus) and sent to Parliament in 1990 - is to reduce emissions by 3 to 5 % in 2000 relative to 1989/1990. The second National Environmental Policy Plan (NMP-2), issued in December 1993, confirmed this target but also concluded that policies will have to be enhanced and additional measures taken in order to achieve it. The measures developed in NMP-plus assumed that real energy prices would rise substantially during the 1990`s. However, the prices are at their lowest level since the early 1970`s and official projections now assume that real energy prices will remain more or less constant between 1990 and 2000. Under these conditions, application of existing policy instruments will have to be intensified and additional policy instruments will have to be deployed in order to attain even the 3 % emission reduction target for CO{sub 2}. In December 1993 the Government`s second National Environmental Policy Plan and second Memorandum on Energy Conservation indicated how policy efforts in the area of climate change will be enhanced. Targets were set for improving energy efficiency in different sectors in the period 1989-2000: 23 % for households, 23 % for non-residential buildings, 19 % for industry, 26 % for agriculture, 10 % for transport and 26 % for power stations. The overall efficiency improvement (including renewables) will lead to energy consumption of 2865 PJ in 2000 (550 PJ less than what it would have been without the policy measures; slightly more than what it was in 1990). Energy efficiency (including renewables) will be responsible for roughly two thirds of the CO{sub 2} reduction needed, with the remainder coming from transport, recycling, reduced coal use, afforestation and structural changes

  20. National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, K.H.

    2006-01-01

    This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main...... first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited...... national awareness and the fact that climate policy is marginal compared to other national interests in Uganda, the experiences with donor support for the implementation of global climate policy nationally are analysed. This article demonstrates that neither national policies nor national management...

  1. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L; Sabel, Clive E

    2016-03-21

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn't been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high-tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co-benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.

  2. Effectiveness of a segmental approach to climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trancik, Jessika E; Chang, Michael T; Karapataki, Christina; Stokes, Leah C

    2014-01-01

    Resistance to adopting a cap on greenhouse gas emissions internationally, and across various national contexts, has encouraged alternative climate change mitigation proposals. These proposals include separately targeting clean energy uptake and demand-side efficiency in individual end-use sectors, an approach to climate change mitigation which we characterize as segmental and technology-centered. A debate has ensued on the detailed implementation of these policies in particular national contexts, but less attention has been paid to the general factors determining the effectiveness of a segmental approach to emissions reduction. We address this topic by probing the interdependencies of segmental policies and their collective ability to control emissions. First, we show for the case of U.S. electricity how the set of suitable energy technologies depends on demand-side efficiency, and changes with the stringency of climate targets. Under a high-efficiency scenario, carbon-free technologies must supply 60-80% of U.S. electricity demand to meet an emissions reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels by midcentury. Second, we quantify the enhanced propensity to exceed any intended emissions target with this approach, even if goals are set on both the supply and demand side, due to the multiplicative accumulation of emissions error. For example, a 10% error in complying with separate policies on the demand and supply side would combine to result in a 20% error in emissions. Third, we discuss why despite these risks, the enhanced planning capability of a segmental approach may help counteract growing infrastructural inertia. The emissions reduction impediment due to infrastructural inertia is significant in the electricity sectors of each of the greatest emitters: China, the U.S., and Europe. Commonly cited climate targets are still within reach but, as we show, would require more than a 50% reduction in the carbon intensity of new power plants built in these regions over

  3. Advanced Placement: Model Policy Components. Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinth, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Advanced Placement (AP), launched in 1955 by the College Board as a program to offer gifted high school students the opportunity to complete entry-level college coursework, has since expanded to encourage a broader array of students to tackle challenging content. This Education Commission of the State's Policy Analysis identifies key components of…

  4. Japan after the Quake: Prospects for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luta, Alexandru

    2011-07-01

    The triple calamity of 11 March 2011 has dealt a serious blow domestically to the credibility of the Japanese nuclear industry, putting the country's energy policy in flux.The severe impact on the country's infrastructure, the unwieldiness of its bureaucracy and the chaotic political situation preclude Japan's energy policy from explicitly re-orientating itself before the middle of 2012, but political consensus seems to be emerging that the country's mid-term pledge on emission reductions will need to be curtailed.The bill on renewable energy passed under Prime Minister Kan marked a step in the right direction, but was shallow and politically opportunistic. Its future impact on policy is uncertain.With other policy instruments on climate proposed by the Democratic Party of Japan toothless or abandoned, Tokyo's ability to engage in significant mitigation activities domestically is in question.Opposition to a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol remains firm; Japan will continue to pursue bilateral mechanisms outside the UNFCCC framework.Given its frail domestic policy and a stated readiness to act internationally outside multilateral frameworks, Japan's promise to carry out significant mitigation activities even in the absence of a clear and comprehensive post-2012 legal instrument should be viewed with a critical eye.(Author)

  5. How the Timing of Climate Change Policy Affects Infrastructure Turnover in the Electricity Sector: Engineering, Economic and Policy Considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izard, Catherine Finlay

    The electricity sector is responsible for producing 35% of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates suggest that ideally, the electricity sector would be responsible for approximately 85% of emissions abatement associated with climate polices such as America's Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). This is equivalent to ˜50% cumulative emissions reductions below projected cumulative business-as-usual (BAU) emissions. Achieving these levels of emissions reductions will require dramatic changes in the US electricity generating infrastructure: almost all of the fossil-generation fleet will need to be replaced with low-carbon sources and society is likely to have to maintain a high build rate of new capacity for decades. Unfortunately, the inertia in the electricity sector means that there may be physical constraints to the rate at which new electricity generating capacity can be built. Because the build rate of new electricity generating capacity may be limited, the timing of regulation is critical---the longer the U.S. waits to start reducing GHG emissions, the faster the turnover in the electricity sector must occur in order to meet the same target. There is a real, and thus far unexplored, possibility that the U.S. could delay climate change policy implementation for long enough that it becomes infeasible to attain the necessary rate of turnover in the electricity sector. This dissertation investigates the relationship between climate policy timing and infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector. The goal of the dissertation is to answer the question: How long can we wait before constraints on infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector make achieving our climate goals impossible? Using the Infrastructure Flow Assessment Model, which was developed in this work, this dissertation shows that delaying climate change policy increases average retirements rates by 200-400%, increases average construction rates by 25-85% and increases maximum construction

  6. EU policy options for climate and energy beyond 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koelemeijer, R.; Ros, J.; Notenboom, J.; Boot, P. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Groenenberg, H.; Winkel, T. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-05-15

    In 2009, the EU climate and energy package with targets for 2020 (the so-called 20-20-20 targets) were formulated. For the period after 2020, however, there are no legally binding targets at the EU level, except for a decreasing ETS cap which will not be sufficient in light of the ambition for 2050. This leads to uncertainty for market players, as project lead times are long and high upfront investments need to deliver returns well beyond 2020. In its Green Paper on a 2030 framework for climate and energy policies, the European Commission recognised the need for clarity regarding the post-2020 policy framework. Currently under discussion is whether the approach for 2020 should be continued towards 2030 in the form of three more stringent targets or that other approaches would be more appropriate. Within this context, the Dutch Government asked PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Ecofys for advice. PBL and Ecofys have subsequently analysed possible options for an EU policy framework for 2030 that will steer towards a low-carbon economy by 2050 in a cost-effective way.

  7. December 2012 Policy Update: School Climate and Bully Prevention Trends State-by-State Assessment. School Climate Brief, Number 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellizio, Dan

    2012-01-01

    This December 2012 Brief updates NSCC's 2011 report "State Policies on School Climate and Bully Prevention Efforts: Challenges and Opportunities for Deepening State Policy Support for Safe and Civil School"s (www.schoolclimate.org/climate/papers-briefs.php). This Brief provides a summary of State level: (1) anti-bullying legislation; (2)…

  8. Energy for climate in Europe. An assessment of energy policies with climate-relevance. The LinkS Project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Audun; Knudsen, Joergen K.; Jacobsen, Gerd B.

    2011-07-01

    The LinkS project aims at providing a better linkage between perspectives and projections for global climate policy development and regional energy systems, by linking relevant modelling tools. The present report provides a specific focus on energy policy measures within the EY with climate relevance. The EU has in recent years aimed at reinforcing the linkage between the climate and energy policies, both at strategic and operational levels. The EU has pledged itself to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 8 percent by 2008-12 as compared to the 1990 level, and by 20 percent by 2020 as compared to the as compared to the 2005 level. The EU-27 reduced it GHG emissions with 11,3 percent in 1990-2008. The 2020-target, however, will require stronger efforts and energy is a key sector: The EU has decided that 20 percent of the energy must be renewable, and that the energy usage in 2020 is to be 20 per sent more efficient than in 2005. A number of policy strategies, measures and legislation are formulated to fulfil these targets. In order to highlight the potential of these measures, this report specifically addresses the drivers and limitations given the existing decision-making structures in the EU. The methodology employed is mainly qualitative, based on document analysis and a review of secondary literature. Climate-change mitigation is in principle based on supra-national decision-making, but unanimity among all Eu Member States is still required in critical issues related to the energy sector. In addition, the national follow-up of the targets constitutes a particular challenge. This is here illustrated by the cases of Denmark and Norway. Energy policy is also substantially characterised by several conflicting interests between the Member States, resulting in diverging policy priorities. It is, therefore, an open question whether the EU will succeed in fulfilling its 20/20/20 percent targets by 2020, and will be the actual role of energy within the climate

  9. Climate Change and the Canadian Higher Education System: An Institutional Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Joseph; Bieler, Andrew; McKenzie, Marcia

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is a pressing concern. Higher education can address the challenge, but systematic analyses of climate change in education policy are sparse. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by reporting on how Canadian postsecondary educational institutions have engaged with climate change through policy actions. We used descriptive…

  10. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  11. CIRCLE 2 policy brief: Communicate uncertainties- design climate adaptation measures to be flexible and robust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelt, van S.C.; Avelar, D.; Swart, R.J.

    2010-01-01

    This policy brief is directed towards funders and managers of climate change impacts and adaptation research programmes as well as policy makers in this area. It notes various challenges in addressing uncertainties in climate change research and policy and provides suggestions on how to address

  12. Climate change and deforestation: the evolution of an intersecting policy domain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buizer, I.M.; Humphreys, D.; Jong, de W.

    2014-01-01

    Forests and climate change are increasingly dealt with as interconnected policy issues. Both the potential synergies and policy conflicts between forest conservation and restoration and climate change mitigation now receive sustained and high level attention from academic, policy analysis and practi

  13. On the relevance of ideology and environmental values for climate change beliefs, climate policy support, and climate protection activities: An empirical cross country analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ziegler, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Based on unique data from representative computer-based surveys among more than 3400 citizens, this paper empirically examines the determinants of climate change beliefs, climate policy support, and climate protection activities in three countries which are key players in international climate policy, namely the USA, Germany (as largest country in the European Union), and China. Our econometric analysis focuses on the effect of ideological and political identification and especially considers...

  14. Climate change: do we know enough for policy action?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Stephen H

    2006-10-01

    The climate change problem must be thought of in terms of risk, not certainty. There are many well-established elements of the problem that carry considerable confidence whereas some aspects are speculative. Therefore, the climate problem emerges not simply as a normal science research issue, but as a risk management policy debate as well. Descriptive science entails using empirical and theoretical methods to quantify the two factors that go into risk assessment: "What can happen?" and "What are the odds?" (Probability x Consequences). Policymakers should, in turn, take that information and use it to make value judgments about what is safe, what is dangerous, what is fair. To make these judgments, policymakers need to know the probabilities that experts assign to various possible outcomes in order to make risk management decisions to hedge against unsafe, dangerous and unfair outcomes. The climate debate needs to be reframed away from absolute costs--or benefits--into relative delay times to achieve specific caps or to avoid crossing specific agreed 'dangerous' climate change thresholds. Even in most optimistic scenarios, CO2 will stabilize at a much higher concentration than it has reached today, and temperature will rise accordingly. It will take even longer for sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of polar ice to occur, but what is most problematic is that how we handle our emissions now and in the next five decades preconditions the sustainability of the next millennium.

  15. Climate policy. Objectives, conflicts, solutions; Klimapolitik. Ziele, Konflikte, Loesungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar [TU Berlin (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer die Oekonomie des Klimawandels; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany); Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimaforschung (Germany); Jakob, Michael [Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin (Germany)

    2017-07-01

    Extreme temperatures and deaths in Pakistan, floods in Russia, draughts in California, melting glaciers, harvest losses and a century vine in the Rheingau 2015: the consequences of the climatic change can be observed on all continents and oceans. The international climate politics has installed the intergovernmental panel on climate change that is of fundamental importance for political agenda. Up to now mankind has little experience with the fair and efficient use of common assets. Therefore climate policy is of special importance for international cooperation. [German] Hitzetote in Pakistan, Ueberschwemmungen in Russland, Duerren in Kalifornien, schmelzende Gletscher, Ernteverluste und ein Jahrhundertwein im Rheingau 2015: Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels lassen sich bereits auf allen Kontinenten und in allen Ozeanen beobachten. Die internationale Klimapolitik hat sich im Weltklimarat ein einzigartiges Gremium geschaffen, das fuer die Agenda der Politik von grundlegender Bedeutung ist. Noch hat die Menschheit wenig Erfahrung mit der gerechten und effizienten Nutzung globaler Gemeinschaftsgueter. Daher kommt der Klimapolitik eine besondere Bedeutung zu, denn sie hat fuer die internationale Kooperation auf vielen Feldern eine Vorbildfunktion.

  16. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  17. Tax or no tax? Preferences for climate policy attributes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braennlund, Runar; Persson, Lars, e-mail: runar.brannlund@econ.umu.se

    2010-03-15

    Today, many countries around the world respond to the global warming and its consequences with various policy instruments such as e.g. taxes, subsidies, emission permit trading, regulations and information campaigns. In the economic literature, policy instruments have typically been analyzed with respect to efficiency, while little effort has been put on public preferences for these instruments. In this paper, an Internet-based choice experiment is conducted where respondents are asked to choose between two alternative policy instruments that both reduce the emissions of CO{sub 2} by the same amount. The policy instruments are characterized by a number of attributes; a technology-effect, an awareness-effect, cost distribution, geographic distribution and private cost (presented in more detail in the paper). By varying the levels of each of the attributes, respondents indirectly reveal their preferences for these attributes. Half of the respondents are faced with instruments labeled by 'tax' and 'other', whereas the other half are faced with unlabeled instruments. As for the label, the results show that people dislike the 'tax'. The results also show that people prefer instruments with a positive effect on environmentally-friendly technology and climate awareness. A progressive-like cost distribution is preferred to a regressive cost distribution, and the private cost is negatively related to the choice. Finally, the results indicate that Swedes want the reduction to take place in Europe but not necessarily in Sweden

  18. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  19. Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykoff, M. T.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox

  20. Benefits of European climate policies for mercury air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rafaj, P.; Cofala, J.; Kuenen, J.; Wyrwa, A.; Zyśk, J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and results of impact assessment of renewable energy policies on atmospheric emissions of mercury in Europe. The modeling exercise described here involves an interaction of several models. First, a set of energy scenarios has been developed with the REMix

  1. Benefits of European climate policies for mercury air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rafaj, P.; Cofala, J.; Kuenen, J.; Wyrwa, A.; Zyśk, J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and results of impact assessment of renewable energy policies on atmospheric emissions of mercury in Europe. The modeling exercise described here involves an interaction of several models. First, a set of energy scenarios has been developed with the REMix (Renewab

  2. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...... to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and recipitation between the two models are included...

  3. Table of Policy Options for Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sortable table of policy options discussed in the publication Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience, which can help local governments prepare for climate change while gaining other environmental, economic, health, and social benefits

  4. Optimising Russian natural gas - reform and climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-18

    The world's largest gas producer and exporter, Russia has an enormous energy saving potential. At least 30 billion cubic meters, a fifth of Russian exports to European OECD countries, could be saved every year by enhanced technology or energy efficiency. As the era of cheap gas in Russia comes to an end, this potential saving is increasingly important for Russians and importing countries. And, as domestic gas prices increase, efficiency investments will become increasingly economic - not to mention the incentive for Gazprom to enhance its efficiency against a backdrop of high European gas prices. The book analyzes and estimates the potential savings and the associated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the oil extraction (flaring), gas transmission, and distribution sectors. Achieving these savings will require linking long-standing energy efficiency goals with energy sector reforms, as well as climate policy objectives. The book also describes Russia's emerging climate policy and institutional framework, including work still ahead before the country is eligible for the Kyoto Protocol's flexibility mechanisms and can attract financing for greenhouse gas reductions. Stressed is the need for Russia to tap the full potential of energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions through a more competitive environment in the gas sector to attract timely investments.

  5. Climate change in Brazil: public policies, political agenda and media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adelaide Lombardo, Magda; Costa Freitas, Ruimar (Univ. Estadual Paulista, Univ. de Sao Paulo Bela Vista, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo (Brazil))

    2010-07-15

    The climate change and sustainable development issue, especially in the context of energy production, have been on the current national policy rhetoric, reflecting the focus of the issue on the world scenario. The Brazilian Agroenergy Plan (2006-2011), considered as an strategic action of the federal government, is an attempt to organize a propose for Research, Development, Innovation and Technology Transfer, aiming to grant sustainability, competitiveness and greater equity between the agroenergy chain agents, starting with the reality analysis and future perspectives for the world energetic matrix. In this context, this research seeks to analyze the proposals of the State of Sao Paulo to the laws implementations that allows the goal accomplishment of 20% reduction on the greenhouse effect emissions until 2020 (base 2005), through action to the deforestation control, creation of an adaptation fund, establishment of a sustainable transportation system, mapping the vulnerabilities of the territory and financial mechanisms to the development of a low carbon economy. From the perspective of the national media coverage agenda, that has extensively approached the climate changes theme, this research collaborates to the analysis of sustainable projects inside the Brazilian perspective and context. This research will emphasize the relation between media, political speech and public policies

  6. Hierarchical Climate Modeling for Cosmoclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuchi, Wataru

    2010-05-01

    It has been reported that there are correlations among solar activity, amount of galactic cosmic ray, amount of low clouds and surface air temperature (Svensmark and Friis-Chistensen, 1997). These correlations seem to exist for current climate change, Little Ice Age, and geological time scale climate changes. Some hypothetic mechanisms have been argued for the correlations but it still needs quantitative studies to understand the mechanism. In order to decrease uncertainties, only first principles or laws very close to first principles should be used. Our group at Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology has started modeling effort to tackle this problem. We are constructing models from galactic cosmic ray inducing ionization, to aerosol formation, to cloud formation, to global climate. In this talk, we introduce our modeling activities. For aerosol formation, we use molecular dynamics. For cloud formation, we use a new cloud microphysics model called "super droplet method". We also try to couple a nonhydrostatic atmospheric regional cloud resolving model and a hydrostatic atmospheric general circulation model.

  7. Climate system model, numerical simulation and climate predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Thanks to its work of past more than 20 years,a research team led by Prof.ZENG Qingcun and Prof.WANG Huijun from the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) has scored innovative achievements in their studies of basic theory of climate dynamics,numerical model development,its related computational theory,and the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models.Their work received a second prize of the National Award for Natural Sciences in 2005.

  8. Introduction to the Special Issue on Climate Ethics: Uncertainty, Values and Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2017-09-09

    Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach. This special issue will identify the main challenges that climate change poses from social, economic, methodological and ethical perspectives by focusing on the complex interrelations between uncertainty, values and policy in this context. This special issue brings together scholars from economics, social sciences and philosophy in order to address these challenges.

  9. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  10. Carbon emissions from U.S. ethylene production under climate change policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruth, Matthias; Amato, Anthony D; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur

    2002-01-15

    This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energy-such as carbon taxes or carbon permit systems-are relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capital-such as R&D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedules-may be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.

  11. Climate Policy after Doha: Turning Obstacles into Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Radermacher

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The international climate policy is in big trouble. The governments of the world cannot agree on a reasonable, enforceable cap on global CO2 emissions – not today and not in the future. Concerning a strict enough cap, this issue is politically not handleable today, because this would directly interfere with the options of countries to generate future economic growth. Problems in this respect are politically unfeasible.The present text, therefore, argues for a new approach, for thinking out of the box, for overcoming the traps the negotiations are stuck in at the moment. The idea is to have governments agreeing only on a relaxed instead of a strict cap. This is politically much easier to achieve. In the text, we show that a relaxed cap is sufficient to solve the climate issue, if the private sector can be motivated to do the rest, given that there is an enforceable relaxed cap in place. The private sector can use at least two wild cards to contribute to this aim, and it can do this within the framework of climate neutrality for companies, organizations, and individuals to take legal CO2 certificates out of order on the one hand, and, on the other hand, to plant trees (all over the world for the purpose of biological sequestration and to do this in huge volumes.

  12. Multi-basket approaches to climate and environmental policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Katsumasa

    2014-05-01

    Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) receive increasing attention because emission abatements of most of these substances not only reduce air pollution but also slow down the global warming. Cutting the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a long-lived gas in contrast, is of primary importance to mitigate the global climate change as well as to stop ocean acidification. To keep abreast of such multiple challenges in a flexible and cost-effective manner, emission caps can be specified in terms of a reference gas (e.g., CO2) and emissions of different components can be converted according to emission metrics. However, under a current one-basket approach (used continuously in the Kyoto Protocol), which allows trading for all the components, any emission metrics may not be scientifically acceptable due to their diverse atmospheric lifetimes among many other reasons. Here we question whether an emerging multi-basket approach, which groups substances based on their atmospheric lifetimes and permits trading for components within each basket, is more robust in guiding us to achieve multiple policy targets and more useful to maintain the balance between SLCP and CO2 abatements with relatively small additional costs. In a wider context a multi-basket approach may simplify the dialogue among stakeholders and underpin a parallel pursuit of multiple climate and environmental challenges that our society faces.

  13. Energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: The consistency of European CHP, renewables and energy efficiency policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-09-01

    This report is Volume 14 of individual reports of the Shared Analysis Project prepared for the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy. The three major objectives of the project were: to design a common framework of energy analysis that aimed to involve all Member States and the experts of industrial research groups (the shared approach to energy analysis); To analyse generic EU-wide issues important for energy policy and for future energy demand and production, putting particular emphasis on world energy market trends, strategic energy policy responses to the Kyoto process, and evaluation of response strategies to increasing energy import dependence and to climate change activities; to carry out quantitative analyses of energy trends and scenarios as an input for discussion. The present volume considers three main issues concerning energy policy responses to the climate change challenge: the penetration of CHP and renewables according to official objectives, focusing on infrastructure and institutions rather than technology; the consistency of promotion of CHP, renewables and energy savings at the same time; consumers' choices and priorities in a liberalised market. The volume describes examples of policies in several Member States for these technologies with emphasis on CHP for both large-scale and small-scale district heating systems. The penetration of CHP technologies is analysed quantitatively using a traditional optimisation model approach for stylised regions with heat markets suitable for CHP and facing a competitive European market for electricity. The Joint Final Report of the project, titled 'Economic Foundations for Energy Policy' is published as a Special Issue of Energy in Europe, December 1999. All reports are available on the Internet, www.shared-analysis.fhg.de/ The project started in January 1998, involving about 100 months of scientific labour. The project consortium consisted of nine member institutes co-ordinated by

  14. Benefits of European climate policies for mercury air pollution

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and results of impact assessment of renewable energy policies on atmospheric emissions of mercury in Europe. The modeling exercise described here involves an interaction of several models. First, a set of energy scenarios has been developed with the REMix (Renewable Energy Mix) model that simulates different levels of penetration of renewable energies in the European power sector. The energy scenarios were input to the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Polluti...

  15. Should the EU climate policy framework be reformed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ELLISON

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Though to-date the European Union (EU has played the most significant leadership role in international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, the emission-reducing performance of individual EU Member states has for many been less than stellar. Several EU15 Member states continue to raise rather than lower emissions. Analysing the most successful policy instruments, this paper argues EU policy efforts could benefit from three important innovations. The following strategies – the adoption of an EU-wide FIT (feed-in tariff, an EU-wide carbon tax and more flexibility in the trading of carbon credits – could significantly improve emission reductions, their relative cost-efficiency and spread burden-sharing more evenly across technologies and Member states. This raises important questions, both about the effectiveness of EU and Kyoto-style commitments, as well as the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS. The commitment strategy, and in particular the EU ETS mechanism, have had the smallest impact on emission reductions. The proposed set of strategies could make a far greater contribution to future EU efforts and potentially lock in the impressive progress already made. Such a policy shift, if successful, would also greatly enhance the EU’s already significant credibility and bargaining power in international climate negotiations.

  16. Is There Any Hope? How Climate Change News Imagery and Text Influence Audience Emotions and Support for Climate Mitigation Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol

    2017-08-02

    Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum. In turn, the influence of emotions on policy support depends on ideology: Hope and fear increase support for climate policies for all ideological groups but particularly conservatives, whereas anger polarizes the opinions of liberals and conservatives. Implications for climate change communication that appeals to emotions are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Modeling interactions between land cover and climate in integrated assessment models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) link representations of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate in an internally consistent framework. These models are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate, energy, and other policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. Additionally, these models are used to develop future scenarios of emissions and land cover for use in climate models (e.g., RCPs and CMIP5). Land use is strongly influenced by assumptions about population, income, diet, ecosystem productivity change, and climate policy. Population, income, and diet determine the amount of food production needed in the future. Assumptions about future changes in crop yields due to agronomic developments influence the amount of land needed to produce food crops. Climate policy has implications for land when land-based mitigation options (e.g., afforestation and bioenergy) are considered. IAM models consider each of these factors in their computation of land use in the future. As each of these factors is uncertain in the future, IAM models use scenario analysis to explore the implications of each. For example, IAMs have been used to explore the effect of different mitigation policies on land cover. These models can quantify the trade-offs in terms of land cover, energy prices, food prices, and mitigation costs of each of these policies. Furthermore, IAMs are beginning to explore the effect of climate change on land productivity, and the implications that changes in productivity have on mitigation efforts. In this talk, we describe the implications for future land use and land cover of a variety of socioeconomic, technological, and policy drivers in several IAM models. Additionally, we will discuss the effects of future land cover on climate and the effects of climate on future land cover, as simulated

  18. Greenhouse gas emissions trading and complementary policies. Developing a smart mix for ambitious climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.

    2010-06-15

    A debate has - most notably as a result of the introduction of fixed caps within the framework of emissions trading - been raised about the need for using additional instruments of climate and energy policy. A common line of argument is that the targets set within the emissions trading scheme are going to be met with a high degree of certainty, and flexibility among the regulated stakeholders will lead to market-based discovery processes. Additional instruments would only generate additional costs and would therefore have to be rejected. However, closer analysis of these fundamental arguments shows that they are constructed on a very high level of abstraction and sometimes rely on strongly simplifying or idealising assumptions. Their theoretical assumptions are, at least in part, very questionable and do not correspond to conditions in the real world for climate and energy policy. At the same time the debate about policy instruments cannot be held autonomously of the specific context of the problem at hand. In this sense the very extensive (complete) and above all effective decarbonisation of the economies of industrialised countries in a comparatively short time frame is the key basic condition for the analysis, assessment and design of the climate policy mix. Essentially, the question is what the best instruments are for purging the whole economic system almost entirely of CO{sub 2} emissions within a period of only forty years. The introduction of emissions trading schemes for greenhouse gases in an increasing number of OECD countries undoubtedly constitutes an important landmark of climate policy. They: - provide a high degree of certainty in terms of meeting targets; - create, on the basis of a standardised price signal, a clearing mechanism for the broad spectrum of emission reduction options close to the market, at least in the short to medium term; and - represent, by means of linking, an interesting option in terms of the globalisation of climate policy

  19. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  20. The Impact of Future Carbon Mitigation Policies and Climate on Regional Air Qaulity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnock, Steven; O'Connor, Fiona; Smith, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Air pollutants (ozone and particulate matter) can affect both climate and air quality. Future reductions in the anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and their precursors will improve air quality. However, it is uncertain the extent to which the choice of carbon mitigation policies could influence future regional air quality via changes to the co-emission of air pollutants from carbon sources. In addition, it is still uncertain how future changes in climate could influence air pollutants and future air quality may change through climate mitigation itself. Two consistent future scenarios, developed by the same integrated assessment model, are used within this study: one is a reference scenario of future economic development and population growth, whilst the other (RCP4.5) assumes the same development but applies mitigation measures to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations and stabilise anthropogenic radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2. Here we have applied these two emission scenarios to a coupled composition-climate model (HadGEM3-UKCA) to ascertain the impact of such carbon mitigation measures on future air quality, both globally and over specific regions, such as Europe and Asia. A comparison of the emission scenarios shows that the implementation of carbon mitigation measures reduces global air pollutant emissions by between 15-30% and by larger amounts over other regions. Additional simulations have also been undertaken to attribute the future air quality changes to either reductions in emissions or changes in climate. An evaluation of the model using air quality observations has also been undertaken for the year 2000. This study demonstrates that carbon mitigation policies to mitigate climate change have added co-benefits for global and regional air quality.

  1. Uncertainty vs. learning in climate policy: Some classical results and new directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lange, A. [Univ. of Maryland (United States); Treich, N. [Univ. of Toulouse (France)

    2007-07-01

    Climate policy decisions today have to be made under substantial uncertainty: the impact of accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is not perfectly known, the future economic and social consequences of climate change, in particular the valuation of possible damages, are uncertain. However, learning will change the basis of making future decisions on abatement policies. These important issues of uncertainty and learning are often presented in a colloquial sense. Two opposing effects are typically put forward: First, uncertainty about future climate damage, which is often associated with the possibility of a catastrophic scenario is said to give a premium to slow down global warming and therefore to increase abatement efforts today. Second learning opportunities will reduce scientific undertainty about climate damage over time. This is often used as an argument to postpone abatement efforts until new information is received. The effects of uncertainty and learning on the optimal design of current climate policy are still much debated both in the academic and the political arena. In this paper, the authors study and contrast the effect of uncertainty and learning in a two-decision model that encompasses most existing microeconomics models of climate change. They first consider the common expected utility framework: While uncertainty has generally no or a negative effect on welfare, learning has always a positive, and thus opposite, effect. The effects of both uncertainty and learning on decisions are less clear. Neither uncertainty nor learning can be used as an argument to increase or reduce emissions today, independently on the degree of risk aversion of the decision-marker and on the nature of irreversibility constraints. The authors then deviate from the expected utility framework and consider a model with ambiguity aversion. The model accounts well for situations of imprecise or multiple probability distributions, as present in the context of climate

  2. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human

  3. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  4. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  5. Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huanghe Gu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available China is one of the countries vulnerable to adverse climate changes. The potential climate change hotspots in China throughout the 21st century are identified in this study by using a multimodel, multiscenario climate model ensemble that includes Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Both high (RCP8.5 and low (RCP4.5 greenhouse gas emission trajectories are tested, and both the mean and extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation are considered in identifying regional climate change hotspots. Tarim basin and Tibetan Plateau in West China are identified as persistent regional climate change hotspots in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aggregate impacts of climate change increase throughout the 21st century and are more significant in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. Extreme hot event and mean temperature are two climate variables that greatly contribute to the hotspots calculation in all regions. The contribution of other climate variables exhibits a notable subregional variability. South China is identified as another hotspot based on the change of extreme dry event, especially in SON and DJF, which indicates that such event will frequently occur in the future. Our results can contribute to the designing of national and cross-national adaptation and mitigation policies.

  6. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  7. A Model for Analyzing Disability Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, Rud; Stowe, Matthew J.

    2017-01-01

    This article describes a 12-step model that can be used for policy analysis. The model encompasses policy development, implementation, and evaluation; takes into account structural foundations of policy; addresses both legal formalism and legal realism; demonstrates contextual sensitivity; and addresses application issues and different…

  8. Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gitz, V

    2004-03-15

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  9. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  10. Contribution of anaerobic digesters to emissions mitigation and electricity generation under U.S. climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaks, David P M; Winchester, Niven; Kucharik, Christopher J; Barford, Carol C; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M

    2011-08-15

    Livestock husbandry in the U.S. significantly contributes to many environmental problems, including the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas (GHG). Anaerobic digesters (ADs) break down organic wastes using bacteria that produce methane, which can be collected and combusted to generate electricity. ADs also reduce odors and pathogens that are common with manure storage and the digested manure can be used as a fertilizer. There are relatively few ADs in the U.S., mainly due to their high capital costs. We use the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to test the effects of a representative U.S. climate stabilization policy on the adoption of ADs which sell electricity and generate methane mitigation credits. Under such policy, ADs become competitive at producing electricity in 2025, when they receive methane reduction credits and electricity from fossil fuels becomes more expensive. We find that ADs have the potential to generate 5.5% of U.S. electricity.

  11. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson-Sellers, A. [Climatic Impacts Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can`t yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.

  12. Groundwater Management Policies for Maintaining Stream Flow Given Variable Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohll, G.; Carroll, R. W.; Brozovic, N.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater is an important resource to agriculture throughout the semi-arid United States, where farmers often supplement surface water diversions with groundwater pumping. Understanding the complex exchange over space and time between rivers and aquifers is important in developing management alternatives that are capable of preserving stream flow for habitat and increasing water deliveries downstream while minimizing lost crop production. Previous integrated hydrologic-economic models have generally assumed superposition of the impacts of groundwater pumping on the hydrologic system for analytical tractability. Although this assumption may be reasonable for some surface water-groundwater systems, in many systems the behavior diverges considerably from the linear assumption. We present analyses using an integrated hydrologic-economic model of surface water-groundwater interaction with nonlinear dynamics, developed for the Mason Valley area in Nevada. The study area has active water conflict between upstream and downstream water users, where groundwater pumping has an important impact on streamflow. The model replicates the movement of water throughout the coupled river and aquifer of the Walker River system and is used to analyze hypothetical tradeoffs between increasing streamflow at the basin outlet and meeting crop water demands for irrigation. The model is run from 1997 to 2006 to capture wet and dry climatic conditions, including a four year drought period in which groundwater pumping accounts for more than 50% of the irrigated water budget. Three alternate groundwater management policies are analyzed to compare economic performance (resulting from reductions in crop area due to reduced groundwater pumping) and hydrologic impact (in terms of increased stream discharge at the basin outlet). First, uniform pumping quotas are the simplest policy to implement and are modeled here as equal reductions in groundwater pumping for each stakeholder at a lumped field

  13. Climate Wrongs and Human Rights. Putting people at the heart of climate-change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raworth, K. (ed.) (and others)

    2008-09-15

    In failing to tackle climate change with urgency, rich countries are effectively violating the human rights of millions of the world's poorest people. Continued excessive greenhouse-gas emissions primarily from industrialised nations are - with scientific certainty - creating floods, droughts, hurricanes, sea-level rise, and seasonal unpredictability. The result is failed harvests, disappearing islands, destroyed homes, water scarcity, and deepening health crises, which are undermining millions of peoples' rights to life, security, food, water, health, shelter, and culture. Such rights violations could never truly be remedied in courts of law. Human-rights principles must be put at the heart of international climate-change policy making now, in order to stop this irreversible damage to humanity's future.

  14. Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hwang, I.C.; Reynès, F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of

  15. Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hwang, I.C.; Reynès, F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of i

  16. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurlbert, M.; Gupta, J.

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to clima

  17. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurlbert, M.; Gupta, J.

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to clima

  18. Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurlbert, M.; Gupta, J.

    2016-01-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to

  19. Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hwang, I.C.; Reynès, F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty plays a significant role in evaluating climate policy, and fat-tailed uncertainty may dominate policy advice. Should we make our utmost effort to prevent the arbitrarily large impacts of climate change under deep uncertainty? In order to answer to this question, we propose a new way of i

  20. Venezuelan policies and responses on climate change and natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caponi, Claudio; Rosales, Anibal

    1992-06-01

    Venezuela is an intertropical country which has the fortune not to suffer the severities of natural hazards which are usual in other countries of this region. It is a developing country, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production and exports. Its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, but it is expected that the planned industrialization development will bring an associated increase in emissions. As a nation, Venezuela has a highly developed environmental consciousness. The Ministry of environment, the first in Latin America, was created in 1977, and has been the main contributor to the national policy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. As in many developing countries actions and responses in this regard have been rather limited in scope, and even though legislation has been developed, many problems arise for its enforcement. Several local warning systems, civil defense procedures, and infrastructural protection measures are operational, however they have not been designed, revised, or planned taking into consideration the potential impacts of climate change. Presently Venezuela is an active participant state in the negotiation for a framework convention on climate change. That is a very difficult negotiation for our country. Here we have to conciliate enviromental principles with national economic interests. The elements of our position in this contex are presented in this statement.

  1. The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemos, M.C. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (United States). School of Natural Resources and Environment; Morehouse, B.J. [University of Arizona, Tucson (United States). Institute for the Study of Planet Earth

    2005-04-15

    This paper examines the use of interactive models of research in the US regional integrated scientific assessments (RISAS), using as a case study the climate assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS). It focuses on three components of regional climate assessments: interdisciplinarity, interaction with stakeholders and production of usable knowledge, and on the role of three explanatory variables - the level of 'fit' between state of knowledge production and application, disciplinary and personal flexibility, and availability of resources - which affect the co-production of science and policy in the context of integrated assessments. It finds that although no single model can fulfill the multitude of goals of such assessments, it is in highly interactive models that the possibilities of higher levels of innovation and related social impacts are most likely to occur. (author)

  2. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Berry, R.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

    2011-12-01

    We address challenges that sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods face when dealing with complex computational models. In particular, climate models are computationally expensive and typically depend on a large number of input parameters. We consider the Community Land Model (CLM), which consists of a nested computational grid hierarchy designed to represent the spatial heterogeneity of the land surface. Each computational cell can be composed of multiple land types, and each land type can incorporate one or more sub-models describing the spatial and depth variability. Even for simulations at a regional scale, the computational cost of a single run is quite high and the number of parameters that control the model behavior is very large. Therefore, the parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty propagation face significant difficulties for climate models. This work employs several algorithmic avenues to address some of the challenges encountered by classical uncertainty quantification methodologies when dealing with expensive computational models, specifically focusing on the CLM as a primary application. First of all, since the available climate model predictions are extremely sparse due to the high computational cost of model runs, we adopt a Bayesian framework that effectively incorporates this lack-of-knowledge as a source of uncertainty, and produces robust predictions with quantified uncertainty even if the model runs are extremely sparse. In particular, we infer Polynomial Chaos spectral expansions that effectively encode the uncertain input-output relationship and allow efficient propagation of all sources of input uncertainties to outputs of interest. Secondly, the predictability analysis of climate models strongly suffers from the curse of dimensionality, i.e. the large number of input parameters. While single-parameter perturbation studies can be efficiently performed in a parallel fashion, the multivariate uncertainty analysis

  3. Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Dylan E; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D; Murray, A Brad

    2015-01-01

    Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

  4. Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan E McNamara

    Full Text Available Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

  5. Global land-use and market interactions between climate and bioenergy policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, A.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.

    2011-12-01

    Over the past few years, interest in bioenergy has boomed with higher oil prices and concerns about energy security, farm incomes, and mitigation of climate change. Large-scale commercial bioenergy production could have far reaching implications for regional and global land use and output markets associated with food, forestry, chemical, and energy sectors, as well as household welfare. Similarly, there is significant interest in international agricultural and forestry based carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, which could also provide revenue to developing countries and farmers in exchange for modifying land management practices. However, bioenergy and climate policies are being formulated largely independent of one another. Understanding the interaction between these potentially competing policy objectives is important for identifying possible constraints that one policy might place on the other, potential complementarities that could be exploited in policy design, and net land-use change and management implications over time. This study develops a new dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GDyn-E-AEZ to assess the interaction between biofuels production and climate mitigation policies. The model is built on several existing CGE platforms, including 1) GTAP-AEZ-GHG model (Golub et al., 2009), 2) GTAP-BIO (Birur et al., 2008; Taheripour and Tyner, 2011), and 3) GDyn framework (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2001) extended to investigate the role of population and per capita income growth, changing consumption patterns, and global economic integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. The new model is used to assess the effects of domestic and global bioenergy expansion on future land use, as well as sectoral, regional and global GHG emissions mitigation potential. Do bioenergy programs facilitate or constrain GHG mitigation opportunities? For instance, Golub et al. (2009) estimate substantial GHG

  6. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

  7. Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US

  8. Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US

  9. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Pinder, Rob W.

    2016-04-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is reduced by ˜ 2 µg m-3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ˜ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (˜ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is ˜ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe, and ˜ 0.8 W m-2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing

  10. Understanding How and Why Cities Engage with Climate Policy: An Analysis of Local Climate Action in Spain and Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia De Gregorio Hurtado

    2015-10-01

    The results of the analysis show a trend towards an increasing awareness on climate mitigation (highly focused on energy efficiency and the promotion of cleaner energy sources, while adaptation remains an incipient local policy area in both countries. The analysis identifies also the beneficial influence of national and international climate city networks.

  11. The Future of Tourism: Can Tourism Growth and Climate Policy be Reconciled? A Climate Change Mitigation Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gössling, S.; Hall, C.M.; Peeters, P.M.; Scott, D.

    2010-01-01

    Tourism is an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Emissions growth in the sector is in substantial conflict with global climate policy goals that seek to mitigate climate change through deep emission reductions. This article discusses the role of various tourism s

  12. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  13. Policies, Actions and Effects for China s Forestry Response to Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a great concern of various countries, the public and science community, and forest plays an important role in mitigating climate change. The paper made a comprehensive analysis regarding the policy selections of China to promote forestry response to the global climate change, and elaborated the concrete actions and achievements in this regard. Policy selections include: 1) Reinforce tree planting and afforestation, increase the forested area and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration...

  14. Multi-level governance of climate change in Belgium. Modest subnational policies in a complex setting

    OpenAIRE

    Happaerts, Sander

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes subnational climate policies in Belgium as a crucial case of multi-level policy-making in Europe. In Belgian federalism, the subnational governments have a large autonomy to conduct their own climate policies, while the scope to act at the federal level is very limited. Moreover, the federal system had produced complex and ineffective coordination patterns, where the federal and the subnational governments each have the possibility to block agreements, e.g. on the intra-Be...

  15. National policy response to climate change in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Garland, Rebecca M

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The South African government has taken several steps in response to climate change and its associated threats to human health. The National Climate Change Response Plan White Paper defines government's vision for effective climate change response...

  16. Climate Sensitivity and Solar Cycle Response in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, M.; Lin, L.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate sensitivity, broadly defined, is a measure of the response of the climate system to the changes of external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and solar radiation, including climate feedback processes. General circulation models provide a means to quantitatively incorporate various feedback processes, such as water-vapor, cloud and albedo feedbacks. Less attention is devoted so far to the role of the oceans in significantly affecting these processes and hence the modelled transient climate sensitivity. Here we show that the oceanic mixing plays an important role in modifying the multi-decadal to centennial oscillations of the sea surface temperature, which in turn affect the derived climate sensitivity at various phases of the oscillations. The eleven-year solar cycle forcing is used to calibrate the response of the climate system. The GISS-EH coupled atmosphere-ocean model was run twice in coupled mode for more than 2000 model years, each with a different value for the ocean eddy mixing parameter. In both runs, there is a prominent low-frequency oscillation with a period of 300-500 years, and depending on the phase of such an oscillation, the derived climate gain factor varies by a factor of 2. The run with the value of the eddy ocean mixing parameter that is half that used in IPCC AR4 study has the more realistic low-frequency variability in SST and in the derived response to the known solar-cycle forcing.

  17. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricko, Oliver; Parkinson, Simon C.; Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; van Vliet, Michelle TH; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-03-01

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

  18. FACOTRS TO DETERMINE RISK PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ATTITUDE TOWARD ADAPTATION POLICY OF THE PUBLIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kenshi; Sugimoto, Takuya; Kubota, Hiromi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Tanaka, Mitsuru

    This study clarifies the factors to determine risk perception of climate change and attitudes toward adaptation policy by analyzing the data collecting from Internet survey to the general public. The results indicate the followings: 1) more than 70% people perceive some sort of risk of climate change, and most people are awaken to wind and flood damage. 2) most people recognize that mitigation policy is much more important than adaptation policy, whereas most people assume to accept adaptation policy as self-reponsibility, 3) the significant factors to determinane risk perception of climate chage and attitude towerd adaptation policy are cognition of benefits on the policy and procedural justice in the policy process in addion to demographics such as gender, experience of disaster, intension of inhabitant.

  19. A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keune, Hans; Ludlow, David; van den Hazel, Peter; Randall, Scott; Bartonova, Alena

    2012-06-28

    The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection

  20. The Greening of Innovation Systems for Eco-innovation - Towards an Evolutionary Climate Mitigation Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maj Munch; Foxon, Timothy J.

    2009-01-01

    -innovation policies in important ways. The paper argues that the evolutionary economic perspective entails a new policy rationale which not only puts more emphasis on greening of markets as a means towards reaching climate goals but also shifts the representation of the economy towards a more dynamic one. The policy...

  1. Support for Climate Change Policy: Social Psychological and Social Structural Influences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Thomas; Dan, Amy; Shwom, Rachael

    2007-01-01

    We investigated preferences for climate change mitigation policies and factors contributing to higher levels of policy support. The sample was comprised of 316 Michigan and Virginia residents, all of whom completed mail surveys. Of the eight policies proposed to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, respondents overwhelmingly indicated they would…

  2. CO2 emissions mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Mejean, Aurelie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine V.; Wada, Kenichi; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher and decrease with mitigation. A first deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes global emission targets until 2030, in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges and regionally-specific low-carbon technology targets. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger - twice and more - than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because leakage and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

  3. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.

    2016-07-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

  4. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios de

  5. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios de

  6. Relating climate change policy to poverty policy: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Prior to the COP21 conference in Paris this year, the World Bank published a report called "Shockwaves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty". The report flagged that ending poverty and stabilizing climate change should be jointly tackled and that without a good joint policy, a further 100 million people could become trapped in poverty by 2050. As part of the "Shockwaves" report, we investigated whether low-income households are disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. We also show how the amount of affected people to these natural hazards change in the future if nothing is done. We use recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard and a large sample of household surveys containing asset and income data to explore the relationships.

  7. National Climate Change Policies and Sustainable Water Management: Conflicts and Synergies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie Pittock

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Even in the absence of climate change, freshwater ecosystems and the resources they provide for people are under great pressure because of increasing demand for water and declines in water quality. The imminent onset of climate change will exacerbate these impacts, placing even greater pressure on already stressed resources and regions. A plethora of national climate change policies have been adopted that emphasize structural adjustment in the energy sector and increasing carbon sinks. To date, most public debate on water has focused on the direct impacts of climate change on hydrology. However, there is growing evidence that climate change policies themselves may have substantial additional and negative impacts on freshwater resources and ecosystems and may thus result in maladaptation. To avoid such maladaptation, integrated, coordinated policy making is required. In this paper, national climate change policies from Australia, Brazil, China, the European Union (EU, India, Mexico, South Africa, Tanzania, and the United Kingdom are compared to: (i identify where negative trade-offs exist between climate change policies and freshwater resources, (ii analyze where institutions and structures exist to optimize integration among climate, water, and biodiversity policies, and (iii provide a much needed overview from a broad selection of countries with a view to identifying further opportunities for theoretical exploration and testing. The synergies and conflicts among climate, energy, water, and environmental policies create additional challenges for governments to develop integrated policies to deliver multiple benefits. Success factors for better policy development identified in this assessment and synthesis include engagement of senior political leaders, cyclical policy development, multi-agency and stakeholder processes, and stronger accountability and enforcement measures.

  8. Shifts of climate zones in multi-model climate change experiments using the Koeppen climate classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanf, Franziska; Koerper, Janina; Spangehl, Thomas; Cubash, Ulrich [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie

    2012-04-15

    This study investigates the future changes in the climate zones' distribution of the Earth's land area due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in three IPCC SRES emissions scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The Koeppen climate classification is applied to climate simulations of seven atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and their multi-model mean. The evaluation of the skill of the individual climate models compared to an observation-reanalysis-based climate classification provides a first order estimate of relevant model uncertainties and serves as assessment for the confidence in the scenario projections. Uncertainties related to differences in simulation pathways of the future projections are estimated by both, the multi-model ensemble spread of the climate change signals for a given scenario and differences between different scenarios. For the recent climate the individual models fail to capture the exact Koeppen climate types in about 24-39 % of the global land area excluding Antarctica due to temperature and precipitation biases, while the multi-model ensemble mean simulates the present day observation-reanalysis-based distribution of the climate types more accurately. For the end of the 21{sup st} century compared to the present day climate the patterns of change are similar across the three scenarios, while the magnitude of change is largest for the highest emission scenario. Moreover, the temporal development of the climate shifts from the end of the 20st century and during the 21{sup st} century show that changes of the multi-model ensemble mean for the A2 and B1 scenario are generally within the ensemble spread of the individual models for the A1B scenario, illustrating that for the given range of scenarios the model uncertainty is even larger than the spread given by the different GHG concentration pathways. The multi-model ensemble mean's projections show climate shifts to dryer climates in the subtropics

  9. Benefits of European Climate Policies for Mercury Air Pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Rafaj

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the methodology and results of impact assessment of renewable energy policies on atmospheric emissions of mercury in Europe. The modeling exercise described here involves an interaction of several models. First, a set of energy scenarios has been developed with the REMix (Renewable Energy Mix model that simulates different levels of penetration of renewable energies in the European power sector. The energy scenarios were input to the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model, which prepared projections of mercury releases to the atmosphere through 2050, based on the current air pollution control policies in each country. Data on mercury emissions from individual sectors were subsequently disaggregated to a fine spatial resolution using various proxy parameters. Finally, the dispersion of mercury in the atmosphere was computed by the chemistry transport model, implemented to the air quality system, Polyphemus. The simulations provided information on changes in concentrations and depositions of various forms of mercury over Europe. Scenarios that simulate a substantial expansion of renewable energies within the power sector indicate extensive co-benefits for mercury abatement, due to the restructuring of the energy system and changes in the fuel mix. The potential for mercury reductions in Europe depends on the rate of fuel switches and renewable technology deployment, but is also influenced by the stringency and timing of the air quality measures. The overall scope for co-benefits is therefore higher in regions relying on coal combustion as a major energy source.

  10. Climate change and radical energy innovation: the policy issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Keith

    2009-01-15

    How can we sustain global economic performance while reducing and perhaps eliminating climate impacts? This dual objective ultimately requires the innovation of radically new low- or zero-emitting energy technologies. But what is involved in such innovation, and why and how should governments support it? What are the implications for innovation policy makers? The paper discusses the nature of the innovation challenge of climate change, develops a framework for analyzing modes of innovation, applies the framework to energy technologies and analyses policies for energy innovation. The overall argument is that we are 'locked in' to an unsustainable but large-scale hydrocarbon energy system. The innovation problem is to develop alternatives to this system as a whole. Yet despite widespread environmental innovation efforts and incentives, these are not yet addressing the innovation challenge on an adequate scale. The analytical framework sees technologies not as single techniques but as multi-faceted technological 'regimes'. Technological regimes comprise production systems and methods, scientific and engineering knowledge organization, infrastructures, and social patterns of technology use. We live not with individual energy technologies but with a complex hydrocarbon regime. Against this background we can identify three modes of innovation, with very different characteristics. They are; Incremental innovations - upgrades to existing technologies, producing innovation within existing technological regimes, such as increases in the capabilities and speeds of microprocessors; Disruptive innovations - new methods of performing existing technical functions, changing how things are done, but not changing the overall regime, such as the shift from film to digital imaging; Radical innovations - technological regime shifts, involving wholly new technical functions, new knowledge bases, and new organizational forms, such as the transition from steam power

  11. Climate change and radical energy innovation: the policy issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Keith

    2009-01-15

    How can we sustain global economic performance while reducing and perhaps eliminating climate impacts? This dual objective ultimately requires the innovation of radically new low- or zero-emitting energy technologies. But what is involved in such innovation, and why and how should governments support it? What are the implications for innovation policy makers? The paper discusses the nature of the innovation challenge of climate change, develops a framework for analyzing modes of innovation, applies the framework to energy technologies and analyses policies for energy innovation. The overall argument is that we are 'locked in' to an unsustainable but large-scale hydrocarbon energy system. The innovation problem is to develop alternatives to this system as a whole. Yet despite widespread environmental innovation efforts and incentives, these are not yet addressing the innovation challenge on an adequate scale. The analytical framework sees technologies not as single techniques but as multi-faceted technological 'regimes'. Technological regimes comprise production systems and methods, scientific and engineering knowledge organization, infrastructures, and social patterns of technology use. We live not with individual energy technologies but with a complex hydrocarbon regime. Against this background we can identify three modes of innovation, with very different characteristics. They are; Incremental innovations - upgrades to existing technologies, producing innovation within existing technological regimes, such as increases in the capabilities and speeds of microprocessors; Disruptive innovations - new methods of performing existing technical functions, changing how things are done, but not changing the overall regime, such as the shift from film to digital imaging; Radical innovations - technological regime shifts, involving wholly new technical functions, new knowledge bases, and new organizational forms, such as the transition from steam power

  12. Advances in urban climate modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo, Julia; Masson, Valéry; Baklanov, Alexander; Pigeon, Grégoire; Gimeno, Luis

    2008-12-01

    Cities interact with the atmosphere over a wide range of scales from the large-scale processes, which have a direct impact on global climate change, to smaller scales, ranging from the conurbation itself to individual buildings. The review presented in this paper analyzes some of the ways in which cities influence atmospheric thermodynamics and airborne pollutant transport. We present the main physical processes that characterize the urban local meteorology (the urban microclimate) and air pollution. We focus on small-scale impacts, including the urban heat island and its causes. The impact on the lower atmosphere over conurbations, air pollution in cities, and the effect on meteorological processes are discussed. An overview of the recent principal advances in urban climatology and air quality modeling in atmospheric numerical models is also presented.

  13. The health co-benefits of climate change policies: doctors have a responsibility to future generations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Ian

    2009-06-01

    Mitigating climate change presents unrivalled opportunities for improving public health. The policies that need to be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will also bring about substantial reductions in heart disease, cancer, obesity, diabetes, road deaths and injuries, and air pollution. The health benefits arise because climate change policies necessarily impact on two of the most important determinants of health: human nutrition and human movement. Although the health co-benefits of climate change policies are increasingly recognised by health professionals they are not widely appreciated by those responsible for policy. Because the existence of important health co-benefits will dramatically reduce the cost to society of taking strong action to mitigate climate change, failure to appreciate their importance could have serious environmental consequences. Health professionals have an urgent responsibility to ensure that the health benefits of environmental policies are understood by the public and by policymakers.

  14. Program on Promoting Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Bridging Policy Making and Science Research in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Y.; Chiang, W.; Sui, C.; Tung, C.; Ho, H.; Li, M.; Chan, S.; Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Program, National Science Council, Taiwan

    2010-12-01

    Climate changes adaptation needs innovative technological revolution on demand for transdisciplinary studies in various temporal and spatial scales. In our proposed program, a systematic and scientific framework will be developed to promote innovative adaptation technologies with respect to providing decision making information for government sectors, enhancing applicability of scientific research output, strengthening national research capabilities, and integrating both academic and non-academic resources. The objectives of this program are to identify key issues, required technologies, and scientific knowledge for climate change adaptations, and to build a transdisciplinary platform bridging science-supported technologies required by government sectors and demand-oriented scientific research conducted by academic communities. The approach proposed herein will be practiced in vulnerable regions, such as urban, rural, mountain, river basin, and coastal areas, which are particularly sensitive to climate change. The first phase of 3-year (2011~2013) work is to deploy framework and strategies of climate change impact assessment and adaptation measures between related government sectors and researchers from academic communities. The proposed framework involves three principle research groups, namely Environmental System, Vulnerability Assessment, and Risk Management and Adaptation Technology. The goal of the first group, Environmental System, is to combine climate change projections with enhanced scientific and environmental monitoring technologies for better adaptations to future scenarios in different social, economic, and environmental sectors to support adaptation measures planning and to reduce uncertainties on assessing vulnerability. The goal of the second group, Vulnerability Assessment, is to identify interfaces and information structures of climate change vulnerably issues and to develop protocol, models, and indices for vulnerability assessment. The goal of

  15. The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 Study on Technology Strategies and Climate Policy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Weyant, John; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Krey, Volker; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Richels, Richard G.; Rose, Steven; Tavoni, Massimo; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 19 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the value of individual mitigation technologies such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Achieving atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration targets at 450 and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent requires massive greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A fragmented policy approach at the level of current ambition is inconsistent with these targets. The availability of a negative emissions technology, in most models biofuels with CCS, proved to be a key element for achieving the climate targets. Robust characteristics of the transformation of the energy system are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy have largest value, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The individual value of low-carbon power technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO2e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology variability. Mitigation costs roughly double when moving from 550 ppm to 450 ppm CO2e, but remain below 3% of GDP for most models.

  16. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  17. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  18. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  19. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  20. Developing local climate services to support climate adaptation policies for Greek region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsanis, Ioannis; Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Jacob, Daniela

    2013-04-01

    The main aim of the Eclise EU FP6 project is to improve the delivery of climate services. The realization of climate service to Greek stakeholders is attempted in several sectors of interest within the project framework. High interest was raised for climate information related to solar energy, extremes of precipitation and temperature and information related to water resources. Technical University of Crete, partner of the ECLISE project has the role of delivering this information to relevant end users in the form of report and datasets with appropriate spatiotemporal resolution, as well as communication of the embedded uncertainties. Currently, simulations from 10 RCMs in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario at a spatial resolution of 25km and data from 3 GCMs in the frame of WATCH FP6 for A2 and B1 emission scenarios interpolated at a spatial resolution of 0.5o were used for the analysis. Additionally, RCM runs of RCA model at various spatial resolutions (50, 25, 12.5 and 6km) were provided from SMHI in order to study the effect of model scale on the ability to simulate the present climate. The analysis of the climate simulations will assist in the long-term strategic water resources planning and climate hazard mitigation. Regarding solar energy information, historical and projected radiation data from 11 RCMs in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario at a spatial resolution of 25km were downloaded for comparison with local measurements. The produced information will assist the future solar energy investments planning and security.

  1. Presenting a Framework to Analyze Local Climate Policy and Action in Small and Medium-Sized Cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoppe, Thomas; van der Vegt, Arjen; Stegmaier, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Academic attention to local climate policy usually focuses on large-sized cities. Given the climate challenges ahead this seems unjustified. Small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) deserve scholarly attention as well. The main question is: What factors influence climate change policy and local climate

  2. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  3. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  4. Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Kyle, G Page; Morgan, M Granger; Patel, Pralit; Liu, Lu

    2016-11-15

    This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3-7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% over the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35-40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.

  5. Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Kyle, G. Page; Morgan, M. Granger; Patel, Pralit; Liu, Lu

    2016-10-21

    This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3–7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% over the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35–40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.

  6. The science-policy interface : water and climate change, and the energy-water nexus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-03-15

    Details of a bilateral meeting held by Canadian and American researchers to explore fresh water research related to climatic change were presented. Attendants at the meeting discussed policy research needs for improving research links between Canada and the United States. Options for improving data acquisition processes and improving modelling and integration techniques were reviewed. Watershed management strategies were outlined, and various policy options for increasing water efficiency and improving flow requirements were discussed. The meeting resulted in both Canadian and American researchers agreeing to establish adaptive management processes while assessing the implication of climatic change on planned actions. Researchers also agreed to adopt a 'soft path' methodology which focused on scenario-planning through the use of backcasting to define sustainable future states for the management of water sources and uses and working backwards to identify necessary policies and programs. It was concluded that distributed governance decision-making will result in a shift from water to watershed management. Place-based management approaches will help to engage stakeholders and increase cooperation among stakeholder groups and governments.

  7. Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdous Ahmed

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD, which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia.

  8. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  9. Development perspectives of the Polish power generation sector according to the climate preservation conference COP21 policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szczerbowski Radosław

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Power generation policy equals the safety policy of a certain country. It should be reasonable and it should consider the access to available energy sources. The crucial issue revolves around minimizing the negative influence of power generation sector on the environment. At the same time, recent years have proven the united stand of world policies toward power generation. Poland has also attempted to determine a new model of power generation strategy. This strategy ought to consider the needs of both the recipients and climate challenges. But there is a crucial question of the shape of the new strategy for development of power system within the next years in the light of requirements of convention on climate change. During the Climate Conference in Paris in December 2015 – 195 countries accepted the first world agreement related to climate preservation. The agreement determines a world action plan, which is to prevent climate change as the result of climate warming. One of the goals is a quick reduction of emissions including power generation sector. This overview presents a current state of National Power System, availability of primary energy sources and various power technologies of future strategy for power system development. The technologies are described in view of their possible use for power generation and their applicability for the reduction of emissions of harmful substances to the atmosphere.

  10. Long-term perspective underscores need for stronger near-term policies on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcott, S. A.; Shakun, J. D.; Clark, P. U.; Mix, A. C.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Goldner, A. P.

    2014-12-01

    Despite scientific consensus that substantial anthropogenic climate change will occur during the 21st century and beyond, the social, economic and political will to address this global challenge remains mired in uncertainty and indecisiveness. One contributor to this situation may be that scientific findings are often couched in technical detail focusing on near-term changes and uncertainties and often lack a relatable long-term context. We argue that viewing near-term changes from a long-term perspective provides a clear demonstration that policy decisions made in the next few decades will affect the Earth's climate, and with it our socio-economic well-being, for the next ten millennia or more. To provide a broader perspective, we present a graphical representation of Earth's long-term climate history that clearly identifies the connection between near-term policy options and the geological scale of future climate change. This long view is based on a combination of recently developed global proxy temperature reconstructions of the last 20,000 years and model projections of surface temperature for the next 10,000 years. Our synthesis places the 20th and 21st centuries, when most emissions are likely to occur, into the context of the last twenty millennia over which time the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts will occur. This long-term perspective raises important questions about the most effective adaptation and mitigation policies. For example, although some consider it economically viable to raise seawalls and dikes in response to 21st century sea level change, such a strategy does not account for the need for continuously building much higher defenses in the 22nd century and beyond. Likewise, avoiding tipping points in the climate system in the short term does not necessarily imply that such thresholds will not still be crossed in the more distant future as slower components

  11. Climate policy coherence. Conflicts and synergies in policies influencing the production of forest bioenergy and food chains; Ilmastopolitiikan ja muun yhteiskuntapolitiikan koherenssi. Ristiriidat ja synergiat metsaebioenergiaan ja elintarvikeketjuihin vaikuttavissa politiikkatoimissa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kivimaa, P.; Huttunen, S.; Hilden, M.; Laturi, J.; Lehtonen, H.; Pohjola, J.; Uusivuori, J.; Virtanen, Y.

    2012-10-15

    To avoid policy conflicts and to enhance policy synergies, new knowledge on how policy instruments within and across different sectors affect climate change mitigation and adaptation is needed. An important question is how different policy sectors cohere with climate policy? In this study, climate policy coherence was examined with respect to policies related to forest bioenergy and food chains, from the perspectives of policy instruments and actors affected by the policies. The analysis was based on quantitative models, policy analysis, interviews and workshops. Clear shortcomings in both the recognition and acknowledgement of policy conflicts were identified. Regarding forest bioenergy this was manifested as overlapping targets for the utilization of forest resources without clear knowledge on how the climate policy aims are related to other aims for the use of forests. Local actors perceived coherence problems as rapidly changing instruments and as differences in the acknowledgement of different bioenergy chains. The quantitative models showed indirect and cross-sectoral effects. For example the increasing utilization of wood in energy production increases the prices and transportation costs of energy wood. This affects the relative price of wood against peat and, thus, the fuel choice of power plants. The market effects should be taken into account, for example, when introducing policy instruments tied to the prices of emission allowances. Increase in the price of pulpwood caused by energy use of wood is an example of a coherence problem between climate and industrial policies. Regarding food chains, nutrition recommendations are coherent with climate policy: Changing consumption to match the nutrition recommendations would reduce GHG emissions. On the other hand, actual consumption equivalent to the recommendations would not directly lead to significantly decreasing domestic agricultural production and emissions therein, but the effect would rather be global

  12. How Does Transport Policy Cope with Climate Challenges? Experiences from the UK and Other European Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudmundsson, Henrik; Lawler, Mary; Meza, Maria Josefina Figueroa

    2011-01-01

    Transport is one of the fastest growing sources of emissions of greenhouse gases. Some European countries have adopted comprehensive “sustainable transport” policies, in which climate change is addressed. This paper looks into how sustainable transport policy frameworks deal with climate change...... challenges in three countries: the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. In particular, the focus is on the role of follow-up and monitoring systems to keep the policies on track. For the United Kingdom, a critical analysis is made of strengths and weaknesses of the policy monitoring regime...

  13. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  14. The case for integrated air quality and climate change policies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available management plans (AQMPS), which present opportunities to integrate climate change considerations. The extent to which cities are currently incorporating climate change concerns into existing air pollution strategies, and the opportunities for improved...

  15. Perceptions of climate change in China:The research and policy connection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiHua Zhou; J Scott Hauger; Ning Liu; HuiLing Lu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem of worldwide inter-est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec-essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change.

  16. Climate predictions: the chaos and complexity in climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Mihailović, Dragutin T; Arsenić, Ilija

    2013-01-01

    Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Godel's Theorem and Rosen's definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. It is pointed out to occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models is analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this systems. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, is analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameters, the logistic parameter and the parameter of exchange, was studied calculating the Lyapunov expone...

  17. School Climate: Research, Policy, Practice, and Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jonathan; McCabe, Libby; Michelli, Nicholas M.; Pickeral, Terry

    2009-01-01

    Background/Context: Educators have written about and studied school climate for 100 years. School climate refers to the quality and character of school life. School climate is based on patterns of people's experiences of school life and reflects norms, goals, values, interpersonal relationships, teaching and learning practices, and organizational…

  18. Climate change and diarrhoeal disease: Perspectives for development policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    2010-01-01

    higher temperatures and from more extreme events in particularly flooding. The number of people affected is by WHO projected to be approximately 700,000 dead and 22 mill disability adjusted life years in 2030 without climate change, so it is very important to initiate climate change adaptation measures...... related to climate proofing of Danida activities in the water supply and sanitation sector....

  19. Organisational sustainability policies and employee green behaviour : The mediating role of work climate perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norton, Thomas A.; Zacher, Hannes; Ashkanasy, Neal M.

    2014-01-01

    Organisations are increasingly introducing sustainability policies to encourage environmentally friendly behaviours. Employees' green work climate perceptions (i.e., how they perceive their organisations' and co-workers' orientations towards environmental sustainability) may constitute psychological

  20. Socio-economic research in support of climate policy development: Mistra's Research Program Clipore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grennfelt, Peringe; Kjellén, Bo; Linnér, Björn-Ola; Zetterberg, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Mistra's Climate Policy Research Program, Clipore, is one of the largest research programs directed to support international climate policy development, involving research groups in Sweden, Norway, United States and India. It has been running from 2004 to 2011 with a budget of more than 100 MSEK (15 M USD). The paper briefly describes the program and its outcomes in relation to climate policy development. Discussion focuses on how the program has been able to be in the front of and include the development of emissions trading systems in Europe and the United States and how the program has been able to follow and produce inputs to the agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The paper also discusses how the program has managed to present its outcomes and maintain an active dialogue with the various stakeholders. The paper emphasises options and obstacles in the communication between science and policy.

  1. FRIDAY: EPA Administrator to Attend the Virginia Coastal Policy Centers Climate Change Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    WASHINGTON - Tomorrow, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Gina McCarthy will be the luncheon speaker at the William ' Mary Law School's Virginia Coastal Policy Center third annual climate change conference, Show Me the Mon

  2. TODAY: EPA Administrator to Attend the Virginia Coastal Policy Centers Climate Change Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    WASHINGTON - Today, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Gina McCarthy will be the luncheon speaker at the William ' Mary Law School's Virginia Coastal Policy Center third annual climate change conference, Show Me the Money:

  3. Climate policy foundations: science and economics with lessons from monetary regulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Whitesell, William C

    2011-01-01

    "This book provides a thorough grounding in the science and economics of climate policy issues and draws key lessons from the longer experiences of central banks in grappling with related challenges...

  4. Organisational sustainability policies and employee green behaviour : The mediating role of work climate perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norton, Thomas A.; Zacher, Hannes; Ashkanasy, Neal M.

    Organisations are increasingly introducing sustainability policies to encourage environmentally friendly behaviours. Employees' green work climate perceptions (i.e., how they perceive their organisations' and co-workers' orientations towards environmental sustainability) may constitute psychological

  5. Organisational sustainability policies and employee green behaviour : The mediating role of work climate perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norton, Thomas A.; Zacher, Hannes; Ashkanasy, Neal M.

    2014-01-01

    Organisations are increasingly introducing sustainability policies to encourage environmentally friendly behaviours. Employees' green work climate perceptions (i.e., how they perceive their organisations' and co-workers' orientations towards environmental sustainability) may constitute psychological

  6. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  7. Madagascar's future climate change intensified actions and policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... actions and policy reforms: fostering local initiatives or business as usual? ... policies in Madagascar, and suggest that there may be fundamental flaws in ... However, World Bank statistics show that, in current terms, Madagascar was ...

  8. "It's a question of prestige": Climate change as public policy in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Erdi Lelandais, Gülçin

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Climate change has been a preoccupation of public bodies in Turkey since the country signed the UNFCC in 2004. Before then, periodic environmental policies were enacted, but under the remit of each Cabinet ministry and without handing over central control of the Ministry of the Environment. Furthermore, no action-oriented policies on climate change were developed. The issue came to public prominence relatively recently in Turkey, but interest in the issues at state is ...

  9. Climate paradox of the G-8: legal obligations, policy declarations and implementation gap

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Guenter Brauch

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the climate policy performance of the G-8 from 1992 to 2012 based on their legal commitments (Annex-1 and Annex-B countries under the UNFCCC (1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997 and their policy declarations on their GHG reduction goals until 2050. A climate paradox has emerged due to a growing implementation gap in Canada, USA and Japan, while Russia, Germany, UK, France and Italy fulfilled their GHG reduction obligation.

  10. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

    2017-09-01

    While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

  11. Cost-effective unilateral climate policy design: Size Matters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Fischer, Carolyn; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

    2011-07-01

    Given the bleak prospects for a global agreement on mitigating climate change, pressure for unilateral abatement is increasing. A major challenge is emissions leakage. Border carbon adjustments and output-based allocation of emissions allowances can increase effectiveness of unilateral action but introduce distortions of their own. We assess antileakage measures as a function of abatement coalition size. We first develop a partial equilibrium analytical framework to see how these instruments affect emissions within and outside the coalition. We then employ a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use to assess the strategies as the coalition grows. We find that full border adjustments rank first in global cost-effectiveness, followed by import tariffs and output-based rebates. The differences across measures and their overall appeal decline as the abatement coalition grows. In terms of cost, the coalition countries prefer border carbon adjustments; countries outside the coalition prefer output-based rebates.(Author)

  12. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  13. Contribution of ecosystem services to air quality and climate change mitigation policies: the case of urban forests in Barcelona, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baró, Francesc; Chaparro, Lydia; Gómez-Baggethun, Erik; Langemeyer, Johannes; Nowak, David J; Terradas, Jaume

    2014-05-01

    Mounting research highlights the contribution of ecosystem services provided by urban forests to quality of life in cities, yet these services are rarely explicitly considered in environmental policy targets. We quantify regulating services provided by urban forests and evaluate their contribution to comply with policy targets of air quality and climate change mitigation in the municipality of Barcelona, Spain. We apply the i-Tree Eco model to quantify in biophysical and monetary terms the ecosystem services "air purification," "global climate regulation," and the ecosystem disservice "air pollution" associated with biogenic emissions. Our results show that the contribution of urban forests regulating services to abate pollution is substantial in absolute terms, yet modest when compared to overall city levels of air pollution and GHG emissions. We conclude that in order to be effective, green infrastructure-based efforts to offset urban pollution at the municipal level have to be coordinated with territorial policies at broader spatial scales.

  14. Southern voices on climate policy choices: Analysis of and lessons learned from civil society advocacy on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Ampomah, Gifty; Prera, Maria Isabel Olazabal; Rabbani, Golam; Zvigadza, Shepard

    2012-05-15

    This report provides an analysis of the tools and tactics advocacy groups use to influence policy responses to climate change at international, regional, national and sub-national levels. More than 20 climate networks and their member organisations have contributed to the report with their experiences of advocacy on climate change, including over 70 case studies from a wide range of countries - including many of the poorest - in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific. These advocacy activities primarily target national governments, but also international and regional processes, donors and the private sector. Analyses and case studies show how civil society plays key roles in pushing for new laws, programmes, policies or strategies on climate change, in holding governments to account on their commitments; in identifying the lack of joined-up government responses to climate change; and in ensuring that national policy making does not forget the poor and vulnerable. The report is the first joint product of the Southern Voices Capacity Building Programme, or for short: Southern Voices on Climate Change.

  15. Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2013-12-01

    Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

  16. Efficacy Trade-Offs in Individuals' Support for Climate Change Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosentrater, Lynn D.; Saelensminde, Ingrid; Ekström, Frida; Böhm, Gisela; Bostrom, Ann; Hanss, Daniel; O'Connor, Robert E.

    2013-01-01

    Using survey data, the authors developed an architecture of climate change beliefs in Norway and their correlation with support for policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A strong majority of respondents believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and identify carbon dioxide emissions as a cause. Regression analysis shows…

  17. Efficacy Trade-Offs in Individuals' Support for Climate Change Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosentrater, Lynn D.; Saelensminde, Ingrid; Ekström, Frida; Böhm, Gisela; Bostrom, Ann; Hanss, Daniel; O'Connor, Robert E.

    2013-01-01

    Using survey data, the authors developed an architecture of climate change beliefs in Norway and their correlation with support for policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A strong majority of respondents believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and identify carbon dioxide emissions as a cause. Regression analysis shows…

  18. Mitigation and adaptation within a climate change policy portfolio: A research program

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is now recognized that optimal global climate policy is a portfolio of the two key responses for reducing the risks of climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Significant differences between the two responses have inhibited understanding of how to appropriately view these...

  19. Mitigation and adaptation within a climate change policy portfolio: A research program

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is now recognized that optimal global climate policy is a portfolio of the two key responses for reducing the risks of climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Significant differences between the two responses have inhibited understanding of how to appropriately view these...

  20. Global climate change : Canadian policy and the role of terrestrial ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooten, van G.C.; Hauer, G.

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of Canadian climate change policy. It is argued that voluntary action will contribute little to climate change mitigation and that forest management strategies can, at most, contribute some 7.5 percent of Canada’s required Kyoto CO2-emissions reduction target. To do s

  1. Multilevel modelling and public health policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leyland, Alastair H.; Groenewegen, Peter P.

    2003-01-01

    Background: Multilevel modelling is a statistical technique that extends ordinary regression analysis to the situation where the data are hierarchical. Such data form an increasingly common evidence base for public health policy, and as such it is important that policy makers should be aware of this

  2. Multilevel modelling and public health policy.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leyland, A.H.; Groenewegen, P.P.

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Multilevel modelling is a statistical technique that extends ordinary regression analysis to the situation where the data are hierarchical. Such data form an increasingly common evidence base for public health policy, and as such it is important that policy makers should be aware of this

  3. National Climate Change Policies and Sustainable Water Management: Conflicts and Synergies

    OpenAIRE

    Jamie Pittock

    2011-01-01

    Even in the absence of climate change, freshwater ecosystems and the resources they provide for people are under great pressure because of increasing demand for water and declines in water quality. The imminent onset of climate change will exacerbate these impacts, placing even greater pressure on already stressed resources and regions. A plethora of national climate change policies have been adopted that emphasize structural adjustment in the energy sector and increasing carbon sinks. To dat...

  4. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a workshop titled Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

  5. Scientific Data and Its Limits: Rethinking the Use of Evidence in Local Climate Change Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren

    2014-01-01

    Climate policy is typically seen as informed by scientific evidence that anthropogenic carbon emissions require reducing in order to avoid dangerous consequences. However, agreement on these matters has not translated into effective policy. Using interviews with local authority officials in the UK's East Midlands region, this paper argues that the…

  6. Reviews of the Norwegian climate policy - a synthesis of four international reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Bjoernaes, Christian; Reed, Eilif Ursin

    2011-07-01

    The report is a synthesis of four reviews on the Norwegian climate policy: 1. Environmental performance review of Norway, OECD 2011 2. Energy Policies of IEA Countries, Norway, IEA 2011 3. Economic Survey of Norway, OECD 2010 4. Report on the in-depth review of the fifth national communication of Norway.(auth)

  7. Immediate challenge of combating climate change: Effective implementation of energy efficiency policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morvaj, Zoran; Bukarica, Vesna

    2010-09-15

    Energy efficiency is the most readily available, rapid and cost-effective way to achieve desired greenhouse gases reductions. Therefore, it is the focus of energy and climate change policies world wide. The results of these policies are still missing in the desired extent, even in the EU, which has the most advanced energy efficiency policy. The main reason behind this policy failure is a complete lack of focus on implementing capacities that would ensure full policy uptake. Embracing full-scale energy management systems in public and business sectors and mobilisation of and cooperation between all stakeholders are the way towards higher efficiency.

  8. The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Karoly, David; Wiseman, John

    2016-01-01

    Reducing domestic carbon dioxide and other associated emissions can lead to short-term, localized health benefits. Quantifying and incorporating these health co-benefits into the development of national climate change mitigation policies may facilitate the adoption of stronger policies. There is, however, a dearth of research exploring the role of health co-benefits on the development of such policies. To address this knowledge gap, research was conducted in Australia involving the analysis of several data sources, including interviews carried out with Australian federal government employees directly involved in the development of mitigation policies. The resulting case study determined that, in Australia, health co-benefits play a minimal role in the development of climate change mitigation policies. Several factors influence the extent to which health co-benefits inform the development of mitigation policies. Understanding these factors may help to increase the political utility of future health co-benefits studies. PMID:27657098

  9. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...

  10. An Appraisal of Coupled Climate Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K; Gleckler, P; Covey, C; Taylor, K; Bader, D; Phillips, T; Fiorino, M; Achutarao, K

    2004-02-24

    In 2002, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) proposed the concept for a state-of-the-science appraisal of climate models to be performed approximately every two years. Motivation for this idea arose from the perceived needs of the international modeling groups and the broader climate research community to document progress more frequently than provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. A committee of external reviewers, which included senior researchers from four leading international modeling centers, supported the concept by stating in its review: ''The panel enthusiastically endorses the suggestion that PCMDI develop an independent appraisal of coupled model performance every 2-3 years. This would provide a useful 'mid-course' evaluation of modeling progress in the context of larger IPCC and national assessment activities, and should include both coupled and single-component model evaluations.''

  11. Impact of Climate Change: Views and Perceptions of Policy Makers on Smallholder Agriculture in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Tetteh

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The threat of global climate change has caused intense debate among policy makers as agricultural productivity and food security risks considerable decline due to changes in rainfallpatterns and temperature. Although the impact of climate change on crop yields vary greatly from region to region, smallholder farmers in developing countries who depend solely on rain-fed agriculture are among the most disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. While the successes in agricultural production in Africa and Ghana over the last decades are heralded, the inequitable distribution of benefits and unsustainable impacts on natural resources are becoming more evident. Many authors have blamed global warming and climate change on the emission of greenhouse gasses however, farming methods and other human activities are also to blame for the emerging change in the climate. Therefore, bringing farming practices and ecosystem services into decision-making in order to make full use of the potential gains from working with the natural environment and the underpinning biophysical processes is imperative. This paper assesses the views and perceptions of Ghanaian policy makers on the impact of climate change on smallholder agricultural productivity in order to sustain agricultural productivity in Ghana. The study used data from a case study conducted by the Environment Policy Action Node Project with sponsorship from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA in Ghana between 2012 and 2013. An interview guide was used to collect qualitatively data from 35 key policy making institutions/organization in Ghana. One important finding of the paper is that even though Ghana has a climate change policy, most of the policy makers were not aware of the policy document and its contents. The paper however argues that to improve smallholder agricultural productivity in Ghana, a national debate on climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are needed to ensure coherence

  12. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  13. An Analog Earth Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varekamp, J. C.

    2010-12-01

    The earth climate is broadly governed by the radiative power of the sun as well as the heat retention and convective cooling of the atmosphere. I have constructed an analog earth model for an undergraduate climate class that simulates mean climate using these three parameters. The ‘earth’ is a hollow, black, bronze sphere (4 cm diameter) mounted on a thin insulated rod, and illuminated by two opposite optic fibers, with light focused on the sphere by a set of lenses. The sphere is encased in a large double-walled aluminum cylinder (34 cm diameter by 26 cm high) with separate water cooling jackets at the top, bottom, and sides. The cylinder can be filled with a gas of choice at a variety of pressures or can be run in vacuum. The exterior is cladded with insulation, and the temperature of the sphere, atmosphere and walls is monitored with thermocouples. The temperature and waterflow of the three cooling jackets can be monitored to establish the energy output of the whole system; the energy input is the energy yield of the two optic fibers. A small IR transmissive lens at the top provides the opportunity to hook up the fiber of a hyper spectrometer to monitor the emission spectrum of the black ‘earth’ sphere. A pressure gauge and gas inlet-outlet system for flushing of the cell completes it. The heat yield of the cooling water at the top is the sum of the radiative and convective components, whereas the bottom jacket only carries off the radiative heat of the sphere. Undergraduate E&ES students at Wesleyan University have run experiments with dry air, pure CO2, N2 and Ar at 1 atmosphere, and a low vacuum run was accomplished to calibrate the energy input. For each experiment, the lights are flipped on, the temperature acquisition routine is activated, and the sphere starts to warm up until an equilibrium temperature has been reached. The lights are then flipped off and the cooling sequence towards ambient is registered. The energy input is constant for a given

  14. State Policy Climates for College Student Success: An Analysis of State Policy Documents Pertaining to College Persistence and Completion

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLendon, Michael K.; Tuchmayer, Jeremy B.; Park, Toby J.

    2010-01-01

    This article reports the findings of an exploratory analysis of state policy climates for college student persistence and completion. We performed an analysis of more than 100 documents collected from 8 states chosen largely on the basis of their performance on past "Measuring Up" reports. Our analysis of governors' state-of-the-state…

  15. Mitigation of adverse effects on competitiveness and leakage of unilateral EU climate policy: An assessment of policy instruments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antimiani, A.; Costantini, V.; Kuik, O.J.; Paglialunga, E.

    2016-01-01

    The European Union (EU) has developed a strategy to mitigate climate change by cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fostering low carbon technologies. However, the risk of implementing unilateral policies is that distortive effects are generated at the global scale affecting world energy price

  16. Climate Risk and Production Shocks: Using Index Insurance to Link Climate Science to Policy for Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarney, G. R.; Osgood, D. E.

    2011-12-01

    Smallholder farmers in developing countries are often severely impacted by droughts and other climate related events. However, agricultural insurance programs are largely unavailable in lower-income countries because of limitations in traditional loss-based indemnity insurance. As a result, it is often the case that farmers who are the most vulnerable to climate shocks lack access to the insurance tools that could help to reduce their production risk. Index insurance, a recent financial innovation, has the potential to increase access to insurance for smallholder farmers (Barrett et al. 2007). Index insurance allows farmers to insure their production risk based on a weather index (such as total seasonal rainfall) rather than on crop yields. The use of a weather index addresses many of the perverse incentive problems found in traditional crop insurance, and greatly reduces the costs of insuring smallholder farmers. The trade-off in index insurance, however, is limited accuracy in calibrating payouts to actual losses, a phenomenon commonly known as basis risk. While index insurance has promise as a risk-smoothing instrument, many argue it has greater promise as a mechanism for improving access to credit for smallholder farmers in developing countries (e.g. Barnett, Barrett & Skees 2008). In these areas, farmers are often fully exposed to climate shocks, which greatly affect their willingness to borrow. By smoothing the uncertainty in climate shocks, insurance may allow farmers to take credit for productive risks. There has been much discussion as to the optimal strategy for combining index insurance with credit, specifically if the financial institutions or the individual farmers themselves should hold the insurance policy. Many existing insurance implementations insure the farmer directly. However, since a weather index is a proxy for yield loss based on regional data, there is basis risk due to uninsured idiosyncratic differences between farmers. As a response to

  17. Climate Change Risk Perception and Policy Preferences. The Role of Affect, Imagery, and Values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leiserowitz, A. [Decision Research, 1201 Oak Street, Suite 200, Eugene, OR 97401 (United States)

    2006-07-15

    A national, representative survey of the U.S. public found that Americans have moderate climate change risk perceptions, strongly support a variety of national and international policies to mitigate climate change, and strongly oppose several carbon tax proposals. Drawing on the theoretical distinction between analytic and experiential decision-making, this study found that American risk perceptions and policy support are strongly influenced by experiential factors, including affect, imagery, and values, and demonstrates that public responses to climate change are influenced by both psychological and socio-cultural factors.

  18. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  19. Policy documents as sources for measuring societal impact: how often is climate change research mentioned in policy-related documents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornmann, Lutz; Haunschild, Robin; Marx, Werner

    2016-01-01

    In the current UK Research Excellence Framework (REF) and the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA), societal impact measurements are inherent parts of the national evaluation systems. In this study, we deal with a relatively new form of societal impact measurements. Recently, Altmetric-a start-up providing publication level metrics-started to make data for publications available which have been mentioned in policy documents. We regard this data source as an interesting possibility to specifically measure the (societal) impact of research. Using a comprehensive dataset with publications on climate change as an example, we study the usefulness of the new data source for impact measurement. Only 1.2 % (n = 2341) out of 191,276 publications on climate change in the dataset have at least one policy mention. We further reveal that papers published in Nature and Science as well as from the areas "Earth and related environmental sciences" and "Social and economic geography" are especially relevant in the policy context. Given the low coverage of the climate change literature in policy documents, this study can be only a first attempt to study this new source of altmetrics data. Further empirical studies are necessary, because mentions in policy documents are of special interest in the use of altmetrics data for measuring target-oriented the broader impact of research.

  20. COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Weber, Elke; Berger, Loïc; Budescu, David V.; Liu, Ning; Tavoni, Massimo

    2017-02-01

    Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest.

  1. National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidrich, O; Reckien, D; Olazabal, M; Foley, A; Salvia, M; de Gregorio Hurtado, S; Orru, H; Flacke, J; Geneletti, D; Pietrapertosa, F; Hamann, J J-P; Tiwary, A; Feliu, E; Dawson, R J

    2016-03-01

    Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modelling the International Climate Change Negotiations: A Non-Technical Outline of Model Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Underdal, Arild

    1997-12-31

    This report discusses in non-technical terms the overall architecture of a model that will be designed to enable the user to (1) explore systematically the political feasibility of alternative policy options and (2) to determine the set of politically feasible solutions in the global climate change negotiations. 25 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Carbon cycle observations: gaps threaten climate mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard Birdsey; Nick Bates; MIke Behrenfeld; Kenneth Davis; Scott C. Doney; Richard Feely; Dennis Hansell; Linda Heath; et al.

    2009-01-01

    Successful management of carbon dioxide (CO2) requires robust and sustained carbon cycle observations. Yet key elements of a national observation network are lacking or at risk. A U.S. National Research Council review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program earlier this year highlighted the critical need for a U.S. climate observing system to...

  4. Climate change ethics, rights, and policies: an introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barry, J.; Mol, A.P.J.; Zito, A.R.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change continues to dominate academic work within green/environmental politics. Indeed, there appears to be almost an inverse relationship between the lack of political leadership on tackling climate change and the growth in ever more sophisticated academic analyses of this complex and

  5. Climate change ethics, rights, and policies: an introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barry, J.; Mol, A.P.J.; Zito, A.R.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change continues to dominate academic work within green/environmental politics. Indeed, there appears to be almost an inverse relationship between the lack of political leadership on tackling climate change and the growth in ever more sophisticated academic analyses of this complex and multi

  6. Exploitation of Parallelism in Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baer, F.; Tribbia, J.J.; Williamson, D.L.

    1999-03-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE), through its CHAMMP initiative, hopes to develop the capability to make meaningful regional climate forecasts on time scales exceeding a decade, such capability to be based on numerical prediction type models. We propose research to contribute to each of the specific items enumerated in the CHAMMP announcement (Notice 91-3); i.e., to consider theoretical limits to prediction of climate and climate change on appropriate time scales, to develop new mathematical techniques to utilize massively parallel processors (MPP), to actually utilize MPPs as a research tool, and to develop improved representations of some processes essential to climate prediction. In particular, our goals are to: (1) Reconfigure the prediction equations such that the time iteration process can be compressed by use of MMP architecture, and to develop appropriate algorithms. (2) Develop local subgrid scale models which can provide time and space dependent parameterization for a state- of-the-art climate model to minimize the scale resolution necessary for a climate model, and to utilize MPP capability to simultaneously integrate those subgrid models and their statistics. (3) Capitalize on the MPP architecture to study the inherent ensemble nature of the climate problem. By careful choice of initial states, many realizations of the climate system can be determined concurrently and more realistic assessments of the climate prediction can be made in a realistic time frame. To explore these initiatives, we will exploit all available computing technology, and in particular MPP machines. We anticipate that significant improvements in modeling of climate on the decadal and longer time scales for regional space scales will result from our efforts.

  7. Climate change policy in the European Union: Confronting the dilemmas of mitigation and adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Alan

    2011-08-01

    There is no doubt that climate change presents an exquisite dilemma to global society and our systems of governance. Either we accept our collective responsibility and adapt our energy systems, or our societies and many critical ecosystems may be swept away by climate extremes, food crises, and, eventually, rising seas. The European Union (EU) has emerged in a leading role in the international struggle to govern climate change. Climate change is an accepted part of the political agenda in the EU, so agreement on targets has been relatively easy compared to the actual implementation of policies to reduce emissions. This book addresses in a historical context, from the late 1980s to 2010, the challenges that climate change policy has presented to the EU and how policy has been developed. The risks posed by climate change have been known for several decades. The evolution of climate change policy in the EU has occurred in parallel with extensive expansion of the EU itself, which grew from 9 member countries in the 1980s to its present 27. The EU is a relatively large emitter of greenhouse gases, and with 27 countries, it represents a microcosm of the global community, albeit with a unique form of governance.

  8. Who's getting the job done? An interview with Alden Meyer on the slow pace of climate change policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ames, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    New Solutions interviewed Alden Meyer, the director of strategy & policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). His work focuses primarily on climate change policy at the state, federal and international levels. He discusses the current state of climate change policy, progress and innovation on the state and international fronts, and the tangible impacts we can make as citizens to hasten political action.

  9. A comparison of taxes and tradable permits in national climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holtsmark, Bjart J.

    1999-11-01

    This article discusses domestic climate policy design in a country that has made a binding commitment to the Kyoto Protocol but at the same time want to limit the number of industry shutdowns that follows from the policy. It is furthermore considered how public budget constraints might affect climate policies. The similarities between an optionally designed taxation regime and a domestic tradable permit regime that is integrated into the international permit market are brought into focus. The similarities presuppose a greenhouse gas tax that fluctuates in accordance with the international permit price. It is argued that climate policy can generate double dividends but that the allocation of free permits reduces these dividends. It is concluded that some organisations promotion of systems tradable permits with distribution of permits free of charge as an alternative to carbon taxes must be understood from their effect on income distribution. 17 refs

  10. Optimal climate policy is a utopia. From quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. [Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, and Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-04-20

    The dominance of quantitative cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised. Among others, it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate-economy system as being analogous to individual inter-temporal welfare optimisation. The transfer of quantitative CBA and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good. An alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events, structural change and complexity. It is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative CBA that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy. This means: implement stringent GHG reduction policies as soon as possible.

  11. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  12. Climate change, geological and hydrological hazard and adaptation policy in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    The present work try to underling the scientific and technical background for a national plan for adaptation to climate change in the field of geo hydrological disasters. The adaptation policy represents the need tool to prevent from the adverse effect of climate change, minimizing the impacts and maximizing the opportunity from these changes. The "decision and policy makers" therefore needs to understand the vulnerability of existing territory in terms of impacts, related risks, opportunities, costs and consequences of different options and scenarios. Climate change has significant impacts on the hydrological cycle and all its related phenomena. Landslide and floods represent the conflict between natural and physic system and social and economical setting, constituting a fundamental imbalance and risk for population. Italian territory due to geological and geomorphological settings is always been interested by geological and hydrological extreme events. Between 1279 and 2002 A.D. in Italy, the AVI catalog (http://avi.gndci.cnr.it) recorded 4521 extreme events in terms of damages. In the same period we had 13.8 victims per year during landslide and 49.6 victims per year due to floods. To define a strong correlation between actual trend in occurrence of geological and hydrological hazards and future scenarios, it seems to be very difficult. The correlation should consider the relationship between meteorological trigger mechanisms (not yet very well associated to climate change) and hazard. For the Italian situations the most recent models provide the following scenario: further increase in temperature (steadily increasing trend already in the last two decades) with increasing periods of drought and heat waves; a general decrease in average precipitation; a decrease in wet days; an increase in intensity of rainfall (extreme events). Such trend seem to be more relevant in the southern part of Italy. The same problems arise when defining the socio economic impacts. The

  13. The MARKAL-MACRO model and the climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1996-07-01

    MARKAL-MACRO and its extensions is a model appropriate to study partial and general equilibrium in the energy markets and the implications of the carbon dioxide mitigation policy. The main advantage of MM is the explicit treatment of energy demand, supply and conversion technologies, including emission control and conservation options, within a general equilibrium framework. The famous gap between top-down and bottom-up models is resolved and the economic implications of environmental and supply policy constraints can be captured either in an aggregated (Macro) or in a sectorial (Micro) level. The multi-regional trade version of the model allows to study questions related to efficient and equitable allocation of cost and benefits associated with the climate change issue. Finally, the stochastic version of the model allows to assess policies related to uncertain and even catastrophic effects and define appropriate hedging strategies. The report is divided in three parts: - the first part gives an overview of the new model structure. It describes its macro economic part and explains its calibration, - the second part refers to the model applications for Switzerland when analyzing the economic implications of curbing CO{sub 2} emissions or policies related to the introduction of a carbon tax, including a hedging strategy, - the last part is organized in form of Appendices and gives a mathematical description and some potential extensions of the model. It describes also a sensitivity analysis done with MARKAL-MACRO in 1992. (author) figs., tabs., refs.

  14. A Quantification of Climate Feedback from Permafrost Degradation, Thermokarst-Lake Expansion, and Subsequent Methane Emission Under Climate Policy and Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Sokolov, A. P.; Walter Anthony, K.

    2011-12-01

    A direct consequence of climate warming in the Arctic will be the likelihood of widespread permafrost degradation. Subsequent subsidence of the landscape and hydrologic changes would then support the expansion of saturated areas such as thermokarst lakes and wetlands. These conditions over regions of carbon-rich, yedoma soils present a strong potential for increased methane emissions. In this study, we quantify the future changes in the high latitude near-surface permafrost and methane emission from thermokarst lake regions from climate projections of the 21st century. For the model simulations, we use the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, which considers the full range of plausible transient climate response (TCR), emissions uncertainty with or without greenhouse gas stabilization targets, as well as a provision for uncertainty in regional climate changes. To account for this regional climate-change uncertainty, we modify the geographic shifts in precipitation, temperature and radiation conditioned by results from general circulation models (GCMs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) archive. The numerical experiments with the IGSM indicate that the Arctic undergoes widespread and nearly complete degradation of the (near-surface) permafrost under a "No Policy" case. The uncertainties in TCR, emissions, and regional climate change have little effect on this end-of-century outcome, but affect the dynamic response. Under an aggressive greenhouse stabilization target and the full range of uncertainties, the IGSM simulations substantially reduce the permafrost degradation extent. Subsequent to the permafrost degradation, the simulated expanse of saturated areas can be large (up to 50%), but the uncertainties in TCR and the regional climate response have a large impact in both the dynamic and the end-of-century response. The corresponding, inferred increases in methane emission rates by the end of the century from thermokarst lakes

  15. Climate change and diarrhoeal disease: Perspectives for development policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    2010-01-01

    This paper points to the key role of health in development programmes and illustrates through diarrhoeal diseases as a case example, how climate change can impose increasing risks, which particularly will hit young children and the poor. The increased incidence can both be expected to emerge from...... that can help to reduce these risks. An attempt to start such a process i.e. has been done by the Danish Overseas Development Assistance Programme, Danida, which has conducted a climate screening of programme activities in Bangladesh. The paper presents a number of conclusions from this climate screening...

  16. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century – Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Hejazi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM, a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT which excludes land use change emissions are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  17. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  18. Viewpoint – The Next Nexus? Environmental Ethics, Water Policies, and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Groenfeldt

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Water policies are based on ethical assumptions, and efforts to promote more sustainable policies need to address those underlying values. The history of water policies from 'command-and-control' to more ecological approaches reveals an ethical evolution, but adaptation to climate change will require further ethical shifts. The case of the Santa Fe river in New Mexico (USA illustrates how values that go unrecognised interfere with sustainable management. Exploring the underlying value dynamics is an essential step in the policy reform process and takes on added urgency in the face of climate change and the need to formulate adaptive water strategies. Bringing the topic of values and ethics into the water policy discourse can help clarify management goals and promote more sustainable practices.

  19. Climate change impacts: Public policies and perception in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elona Pojani

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to discuss some of the main impacts of climate change in Albania. More specifically the paper will try to analyze the public response toward these new challenges. This analysis will be preceded by a brief review of the international literature regarding climate change consequences. In addition, the paper will discuss public perception and awareness toward climate change. This discussion will be based on a survey which has involved a wide range of population. The main results of the survey show that the level of awareness of the study group (which consisted mainly on high educated participants about climate change and its relationship with the development is very low. Therefore more emphasis should be put to information regarding environmental issues, through education system and awareness campaigns.

  20. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  1. How will the EU climate adaptation strategy affect EU agricultural policies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helle Ørsted; Karali, Eleni; Castellari, Sergio;

    A key objective in the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM (2013) 216 final) is to ensure mainstreaming, i.e. integration, of adaptation measures into European sectoral policies. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is one such sectoral policy which is prioritised in the strategy...... to adaptation in agricultural production and analyses to what extent the reformed CAP as currently proposed will provide the tools to deal with the key vulnerabilities and adaptation needs. Specifically, the paper analyses the policy instruments available in the CAPs 1st and 2nd pillars and assesses......, the paper will also analyze the institutional mechanisms available in the adaptation strategy in order to assess their strength with regards to mainstreaming adaptation into agricultural policy. The paper is based on analysis of key EU policy documents and compares the policy instruments...

  2. Role of motor vehicle lifetime extension in climate change policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Shigemi; Nansai, Keisuke; Kondo, Yasushi; Hubacek, Klaus; Suh, Sangwon; Minx, Jan; Kudoh, Yuki; Tasaki, Tomohiro; Nakamura, Shinichiro

    2011-02-15

    Vehicle replacement schemes such as the "cash for clunkers" program in the U.S. and the "scrappage scheme" in the UK have featured prominently in the economic stimulation packages initiated by many governments to cope with the global economic crisis. While these schemes were designed as economic instruments to support the vehicle production industry, governments have also claimed that these programs have environmental benefits such as reducing CO2 emissions by bringing more fuel-efficient vehicles onto the roads. However, little evidence is available to support this claim as current energy and environmental accounting models are inadequate for comprehensively capturing the economic and environmental trade-offs associated with changes in product life and product use. We therefore developed a new dynamic model to quantify the carbon emissions due to changes in product life and consumer behavior related to product use. Based on a case study of Japanese vehicle use during the 1990-2000 period, we found that extending, not shortening, the lifetime of a vehicle helps to reduce life-cycle CO2 emissions throughout the supply chain. Empirical results also revealed that even if the fuel economy of less fuel-efficient ordinary passenger vehicles were improved to levels comparable with those of the best available technology, i.e. hybrid passenger cars currently being produced in Japan, total CO2 emissions would decrease by only 0.2%. On the other hand, we also find that extending the lifetime of a vehicle contributed to a moderate increase in emissions of health-relevant air pollutants (NOx, HC, and CO) during the use phase. From the results, this study concludes that the effects of global warming and air pollution can be somewhat moderated and that these problems can be addressed through specific policy instruments directed at increasing the market for hybrid cars as well as extending lifetime of automobiles, which is contrary to the current wisdom.

  3. Modelling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Bakan, S. (Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany))

    1993-06-01

    The delay of anthropogenic climate change caused by oceans and other slowly reacting climate system components forces us to numerical modeling as the basis of decisions. For three three-dimensional numerical examples, namely transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the additional greenhouse effect, internal ocean-atmosphere variability, and disturbance by soot particles from burning oil wells, the present-day status is described. From all anthropogenic impacts on the radiative balance, the contribution from trace gases is the most important.

  4. The Validation of Climate Models: The Development of Essential Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, R. B.

    2011-12-01

    It is possible from both a scientific and philosophical perspective to state that climate models cannot be validated. However, with the realization that the scientific investigation of climate change is as much a subject of politics as of science, maintaining this formal notion of "validation" has significant consequences. For example, it relegates the bulk of work of many climate scientists to an exercise of model evaluation that can be construed as ill-posed. Even within the science community this motivates criticism of climate modeling as an exercise of weak scientific practice. Stepping outside of the science community, statements that validation is impossible are used in political arguments to discredit the scientific investigation of climate, to maintain doubt about projections of climate change, and hence, to prohibit the development of public policy to regulate the emissions of greenhouse gases. With the acceptance of the impossibility of validation, scientists often state that the credibility of models can be established through an evaluation process. A robust evaluation process leads to the quantitative description of the modeling system against a standard set of measures. If this process is standardized as institutional practice, then this provides a measure of model performance from one modeling release to the next. It is argued, here, that such a robust and standardized evaluation of climate models can be structured and quantified as "validation." Arguments about the nuanced meaning of validation and evaluation are a subject about which the climate modeling community needs to develop a standard. It does injustice to a body of science-based knowledge to maintain that validation is "impossible." Rather than following such a premise, which immediately devalues the knowledge base, it is more useful to develop a systematic, standardized approach to robust, appropriate validation. This stands to represent the complexity of the Earth's climate and its

  5. Summing up the parts. Combining Policy Instruments for Least-Cost Climate Mitigation Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Meeting the enormous challenge of decarbonising world energy systems will require a rapid expansion of investment in clean technologies on a global scale. Mobilising these resources will be a daunting task, and it is important to undertake the transition at the lowest cost possible. This paper seeks to provide some guidance on climate change policy-making within real-world constraints, focusing on the justification of policies to supplement a carbon price, interactions between carbon pricing and supplementary policies, and management of these interactions to enable a least-cost policy response.

  6. Strategic effects of future environmental policy commitments: climate change, solar radiation management and correlated air pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jingwen; Silva, Emilson Caputo Delfino

    2015-03-15

    We study the effects of environmental policy commitments in a futuristic world in which solar radiation management (SRM) can be utilized to reduce climate change damages. Carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions (correlated pollutants) can be reduced through tradable permits. We show that if nations simultaneously commit to carbon permit policies, national SRM levels rise with carbon quotas. Alternatively, if they simultaneously commit to SRM policies, the global temperature falls with each unit increase in the global SRM level. A nation always wishes to be a leader in policymaking, but prefers carbon to SRM policymaking. The globe prefers SRM policy commitments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Paradigms of global climate change and sustainable development: Issues and related policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhat Kumar Rai

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Combating climate change is intimately linked with peace and resource equity. Therefore, critical link establishment between climate change and sustainable development is extremely relevant in global scenario. Following the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, the international sustainable development agenda was taken up by the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD; the climate change agenda was carried forward by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. International and local climate change mitigation policies need to be assessed based on sustainability criteria. The increasing concern over climate change drives towards the search of solutions enabling to combat climate change into broader context of sustainable development. The core element of sustainable development is the integration of economic, social and environmental concerns in policy-making. Therefore, article also analyzes post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes and their impact on sustainable development. Wide range of post- Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures has different impact on different groups of countries. Nevertheless, there are several reasons for optimism that sustainable consumption patterns might develop. One is the diversity of current consumption patterns and the growing minority concerned with ethical consumption. Another is the growing understanding of innovation processes, developed to address technological change, but applicable to social innovation. A third reason is the growing reflexivity of communities and institutions.

  8. A Tool for Sharing Empirical Models of Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rising, J.; Kopp, R. E.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists, policy advisors, and the public struggle to synthesize the quickly evolving empirical work on climate change impacts. The Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to estimate the impacts of climate change and the effects of adaptation and mitigation policies can also benefit greatly from recent empirical results (Kopp, Hsiang & Oppenheimer, Impacts World 2013 discussion paper). This paper details a new online tool for exploring, analyzing, combining, and communicating a wide range of impact results, and supporting their integration into IAMs. The tool uses a new database of statistical results, which researchers can expand both in depth (by providing additional results that describing existing relationships) and breadth (by adding new relationships). Scientists can use the tool to quickly perform meta-analyses of related results, using Bayesian techniques to produce pooled and partially-pooled posterior distributions. Policy advisors can apply the statistical results to particular contexts, and combine different kinds of results in a cost-benefit framework. For example, models of the impact of temperature changes on agricultural yields can be first aggregated to build a best-estimate of the effect under given assumptions, then compared across countries using different temperature scenarios, and finally combined to estimate a social cost of carbon. The general public can better understand the many estimates of climate impacts and their range of uncertainty by exploring these results dynamically, with maps, bar charts, and dose-response-style plots. Front page of the climate impacts tool website. Sample "collections" of models, within which all results are estimates of the same fundamental relationship, are shown on the right. Simple pooled result for Gelman's "8 schools" example. Pooled results are calculated analytically, while partial-pooling (Bayesian hierarchical estimation) uses posterior simulations.

  9. Residential Water Scarcity in Cyprus: Impact of Climate Change and Policy Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodoros Zachariadis

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an assessment of the cost of water scarcity in Cyprus, today and in the next 20 years, taking into account the effect of projected climate change in the region. It focuses on the residential sector, accounting also for tourism and industry. Using a simple demand function, total scarcity costs in Cyprus are computed for the period 2010–2030, and three scenarios of future water demand are presented. The central estimate shows that the present value of total costs due to water shortages will amount to 72 million Euros (at 2009 prices, and, if future water demand increases a little faster, these costs may reach 200 million Euros. Using forecasts of regional climate models, costs are found to be about 20% higher in a “climate change” scenario. Compared to the loss of consumer surplus due to water shortages, desalination is found to be a costly solution, even if environmental damage costs from the operation of desalination plants are not accounted for. Finally, dynamic constrained optimization is employed and shows that efficient residential water prices should include a scarcity price of about 40 Eurocents per cubic meter at  2009 prices; this would constitute a 30–100% increase in current prices faced by residential consumers. Reductions in rainfall due to climate change would raise this price by another 2-3 Eurocents. Such a pricing policy would provide a clear long-term signal to consumers and firms and could substantially contribute to a sustainable use of water resources in the island.

  10. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin; Wang, Shuyu; Xiong, Zhe; Gutowski, William J.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; McGregor, John L.; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; Kim, Jeong-Woo; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2005-02-01

    Improving the simulation of regional climate change is one of the high-priority areas of climate study because regional information is needed for climate change impact assessments. Such information is especially important for the region covered by the East Asian monsoon where there is high variability in both space and time. To this end, the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia has been established to evaluate and improve regional climate model (RCM) simulations of the monsoon climate. RMIP operates under joint support of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and several projects of participating nations. The project currently involves 10 research groups from Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, as well as scientists from India, Italy, Mongolia, North Korea, and Russia.RMIP has three simulation phases: March 1997-August 1998, which covers a full annual cycle and extremes in monsoon behavior; January 1989-December 1998, which examines simulated climatology; and a regional climate change scenario, involving nesting with a global model. This paper is a brief report of RMIP goals, implementation design, and some initial results from the first phase studies.

  11. Common metrics. Comparing the warming effect of climate forcers in climate policy; Common metrics. Laempenemiseen vaikuttavien paeaestoejen yhteismitallistaminen ilmastopolitiikassa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindroos, T. J.; Ekholm, T.; Savolainen, I.

    2012-11-15

    Climate policy needs a relatively simple method to compare the warming effect of different greenhouse gases (GHGs). Otherwise it would be necessary to negotiate a different reduction target for each gas. At the moment, Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept is used to compare different GHGs. Numerical values of GWP factors have been updated alongside with scientific understanding and majority seems content to the GWP. From 2005 onwards there have been many proposals of optional metrics. The most well known is Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) concept which measures the change of temperature as does global climate policies. The decision between metrics is a multicriteria decision which should include at least the coherence with climate policy and cost efficiency. The GWP concept may be a little more difficult to understand than the GTP but it is more cost efficient. Alongside with new metrics, scientists and politicians have started to discuss of new emission which have an effect on warming. These Short Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) have either warming or cooling effect. Their effect can be presented with GWP and GTP but the uncertainties in the emission factors are large. In total, SLCFs reduce overall emissions of EU approximately 1% in year 2000. NO{sub x}, SO{sub x} (cooling) and black carbon (warming) emissions were the biggest factors. EU is planning to reduce the SLCF emissions to achieve health and environmental benefits, but at the same time this reduces the effect of EU's climate policies by approximately 10%. Uncertainties in the estimates are large. (orig.)

  12. Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Macauley, Molly

    2012-01-01

    Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an

  13. Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

    2013-12-19

    Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.

  14. Climate Change and Public Health Policy: Translating the Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieta Braks

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.

  15. The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J -F; Foley, A M; Chewpreecha, U; Pollitt, H

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of possible uses of climate policy instruments for the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector in a non-equilibrium economic and technology innovation-diffusion perspective. Emissions reductions occur through changes in technology and energy consumption; in this context, investment decision-making opportunities occur periodically, which energy policy can incentivise in order to transform energy systems and meet reductions targets. Energy markets are driven by innovation, dynamic costs and technology diffusion; yet, the incumbent systems optimisation methodology in energy modelling does not address these aspects nor the effectiveness of policy onto decision-making since the dynamics modelled take their source from the top-down `social-planner' assumption. This leads to an underestimation of strong technology lock-ins in cost-optimal scenarios of technology. Our approach explores the global diffusion of low carbon technology in connection to a highly disaggregated sector...

  16. Modeling of Past Climates: Some Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutzbach, J. E.

    2008-12-01

    Important new ideas related to modeling of past climates go hand in hand with new observations, with advances in our understanding and ability to represent physical and biogeochemical processes, and with advances in computer capacity and speed. Important first steps in quantitative climate modeling using energy balance models were underway in the early 20th century. Dynamical climate models began to be used to study past climates in the 1970s and 1980s, with a focus first on the atmosphere, and then on coupled models of atmosphere and upper ocean. In the past decades, coupled dynamical models include atmosphere, global ocean, vegetation, cryosphere and carbon cycle components. This astonishingly rapid development in modeling potential has been greatly facilitated by the rapid increase in computational power. Equally important is the rapid development of more diverse, accurate and worldwide observations of present and past environments from land, lakes, oceans and ice. The topics of early, more recent, and current research on modeling of past climates come from a diverse range of ideas about the mechanisms that might force fundamental changes in climate - for example: changes in greenhouse gases, changes in insolation caused by orbital changes, changes in land-sea distribution, changes in orography, and changes in ocean gateways. Past and current research on these topics, using climate models, illustrates the process and the progress. Certain fundamental principles of modeling and analysis have been important in the past, are important now, and most likely will continue to be important. These principles will be enumerated. Looking toward the future, new observations, improved models and even faster computers are to be expected. But there will also be new challenges: intermodel comparisons and analysis and correction of model bias, understanding feedback processes, understanding non-linear responses, understanding the response to combinations of forcing, and studying

  17. Chapter 4. Economic Considerations: Cost-Effective and Efficient Climate Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximilian Auffhammer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this chapter we discuss the economics of climate change. We begin with a discussion of economic considerations that are important to take into account when designing and evaluating climate policy, including cost effectiveness and efficiency. We then discuss specific policies at the state, national, and international level in light of these economic considerations.  We have several recommendations for the path forward for climate policy. First, the goal of climate policy should be to reduce the damages caused by greenhouse gases. In addition to mitigation policy to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, one can also reduce the damages causes by greenhouse gases by adaptation measures that reduce our vulnerability to climate change impacts.  Second, policy-makers should use incentive- (or market- based instruments as opposed to command and control policies (including quantity-based mandates whenever possible. Whenever unpriced emissions are the sole market failure, incentive-based instruments such as a carbon tax or cap and trade program are more likely to achieve the social optimum and maximize social net benefits [1, 2]. Lin and Prince [3] calculate that the optimal gasoline tax for the state of California is $1.37 per gallon.  Our third recommendation is to address the risk of emissions leakage, which arises when only one jurisdiction (e.g., California imposes climate policy, but not the entire world. One way to reduce emissions leakage is to use the strategic distribution of emissions allowances to local producers. This method, known as “output-based allocation” or benchmarking, effectively subsidizes local producers and at least partially offsets the increase in their costs caused by an emissions cap [4]. Importantly, only local production is eligible for an allocation of valuable allowances, providing a counterweight to the incentive for emission leakage. Our fourth recommendation is that if they are used instead

  18. Co-creation of climate change mitigation policies: the superiority of a community-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, Jens Villiam

    The focus of this paper is on the places where citizens and public authorities meet – possible involving other stakeholders as well – to discuss, formulate and implement climate change mitigation policies at the local level. Through looking at a number of concrete cases stemming from the CIDEA...... mitigation policies should be aimed at finding ways to support citizen initiated initiatives to a greater extent than is currently the case. Keywords: climate change mitigation, co-creation, behaviour, communities, citizen driven innovation.......-reductions), as well as from a democratic perspective, citizen initiated projects involving communities of different kinds are clearly superior to for example government initiated campaigns aimed at the behaviour of individuals. This finding has clear policy-implications meaning that local climate change...

  19. Values and uncertainties in the predictions of global climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsberg, Eric

    2012-06-01

    Over the last several years, there has been an explosion of interest and attention devoted to the problem of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in climate science-that is, to giving quantitative estimates of the degree of uncertainty associated with the predictions of global and regional climate models. The technical challenges associated with this project are formidable, and so the statistical community has understandably devoted itself primarily to overcoming them. But even as these technical challenges are being met, a number of persistent conceptual difficulties remain. So why is UQ so important in climate science? UQ, I would like to argue, is first and foremost a tool for communicating knowledge from experts to policy makers in a way that is meant to be free from the influence of social and ethical values. But the standard ways of using probabilities to separate ethical and social values from scientific practice cannot be applied in a great deal of climate modeling, because the roles of values in creating the models cannot be discerned after the fact-the models are too complex and the result of too much distributed epistemic labor. I argue, therefore, that typical approaches for handling ethical/social values in science do not work well here.

  20. Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020. Economic and political implications in selected industry and emerging countries. Pre2020 climate policy ambition. Draft version

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braun, Nadine; Hoehne, Niklas; Hagemann, Markus; Day, Thomas [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Healy, Sean; Schumacher, Katja [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); Duscha, Vicki [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2014-06-06

    The objective of this research paper is to analyse the current efforts of country activities towards the 2020 2 C target, in order to identify best practices and their possible impact on emission reduction in 2020. A first scan of policies in countries with high greenhouse gas emissions and countries with remarkably ambitious climate change mitigation strategies (see Table 1) revealed that thematic areas with notable coverage in domestic climate policy are: general strategies and targets, renewable energy support schemes for electricity, product standards and codes for energy efficiency in buildings, and direct subsidies and fuel quotas for renewables in Transport. From this, along with initial indications of mitigation potential, we identified four areas where ambition could be significantly enhanced by 2020.

  1. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate

  2. The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2015-03-15

    Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

  3. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  4. Policy documents as sources for measuring societal impact: How is climate change research perceived in policy documents?

    CERN Document Server

    Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

    2015-01-01

    In the current UK Research Excellence Framework (REF) and the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) societal impact measurements are inherent parts of the national evaluation systems. In this study, we deal with a relatively new form of societal impact measurements. Recently, Altmetric - a start-up providing publication level metrics - started to make data for publications available which have been mentioned in policy documents. We regard this data source as an interesting possibility to specifically measure the (societal) impact of research. Using a comprehensive dataset with publications on climate change as an example, we study the usefulness of the new data source for impact measurement. Only 1.2 percent (2341) out of 191276 publications on climate change in the dataset have at least one policy mention. We further reveal that papers published in Nature and Science as well as from the areas "Earth and related environmental sciences" and "Social and economic geography" are especially relevant in the po...

  5. A third option for climate policy within potential limits to growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.

    2017-02-01

    Climate change has revived debates around the concept of limits to growth, 45 years after it was first proposed. Many citizens, scientists and politicians fear that stringent climate policy will harm economic growth. Some are anti-growth, whereas others believe green growth is compatible with a transition to a low-carbon economy. As the window to curb warming at 2 °C closes, this debate will intensify. This Review critically reflects on both positions, providing an overview of existing literature on the growth versus climate debate. Both positions are argued here to jeopardize environmental or social goals. A third position, labelled an 'agrowth' strategy, is proposed to depolarize the debate and reduce resistance to climate policies.

  6. Local institutions responses to climate governance policies in adaptation to climate change : a case of small scale farmers in Alego Usonga-Siaya County in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Shilaho, Haron Alusiola

    2016-01-01

    Alego Usonga-Siaya County in Kenya can be considered a climate change vulnerable area with larger population dependent on substance and rain-fed farming and other social-economic activities. Drawing on national climate policy the study explore and analyse how vulnerable small scale farmers adapted more (adaptation+) to changes in local forms of institutions. The aim of the study is to gain more insights into roles of planned national climate state use policies and responses of village level i...

  7. Climate policy studies by the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, ECON and Energy Data:10 Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andresen, S.; Eikeland, P.O.; Eleri, E.O.; Fermann, G.; Fredriksen, O.; Halseth, A.; Hansen, S.; Haugland, T.; Malnes, R.; Skjaerseth, J.B.; Ottosen, R

    1993-07-01

    The overall focus is the relation between energy, environment and development on the national level and international co-operation concerning sustainable energy management and global environmental change. A series of country studies analyses the economic, political and institutional factors influencing energy, environment and climate policies. The role of non-state actors like NGOs and the energy industries in international environmental affairs is also closely examined. Strategies to enhance energy efficiency are studied with a particular focus on identifying and overcoming barriers to policy implementation. The ways in which developments in international energy markets affect the potential and scope of international environmental agreements are analysed, as are the impacts of different international environmental regimes on energy markets. Particular attention is paid on the opportunities and limitations of international institutions like the European Community, the United Nations, the multilateral development banks and GATT, in promoting international co-operation on energy and environmental issues. Strategies to overcome North/South conflicts over global environmental issues are examined, including issue linkages in international negotiations and North/South transfer of resources and technology. Another important area of sustainable production and consumption of energy in developing countries. Project titles are: 1) ''Leader'' and ''entrepreneur'' in international negotiations . A conceptual analysis. 2) Choosing climate policy. Decision theoretical premises. 3) Japan in the greenhouse responsibilities, policies and prospects for combating global warming. 4) Impacts on developing economies from changing trade regimes and growing international environmental concerns. 5) US energy policy in the greenhouse from the North slope forests to the Gulf Stream waters - this land was made for fossil fuels. 6) The climate policy of

  8. Adaptation to Climate Change in European Water Law and Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keessen, Andrea M.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van

    2012-01-01

    Climate change exacerbates the challenges that water management nowadays has to deal with. This highlights the need for a legal framework that promotes adaptation by addressing the ecological value of water and the risks of flooding and drought. This paper analyzes to what extent the European legal

  9. From Nash to Lindahl in Climate Change Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, L.F.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073642398; Swart, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/319017540

    2015-01-01

    To reach an international agreement on the cost of abatement of climate change, one needs to specify a fair burden sharing rule. This paper evaluates different burden sharing rules in terms of their redistributive impact and by the extent to which they realize the aim of optimal abatement. It is

  10. The Current Policy of the European Parliament on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TODEA Al.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Approaches are presented to Parliament in order to take measures on climate change through suitable laws thataims to reduce bad habits that lead to greenhouse gas emissions, in order to reduce them by 20%, increase energyefficiency by 20% and use of resources renewable energy reaching 20% of all energy - with the deadline until 2020.

  11. Moving targets-costs-effective climate policy under scientific uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Michielsen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The IPCC’s fifth assessment report of Working Group III has just come out. It pays special attention to the 2 °C temperature target and tells us that the window of opportunity to prevent such climate change is rapidly closing. Yet, the report also presents a portfolio of stabilization targets,

  12. Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Patel, Pralit L. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

    2013-10-16

    Many papers have shown that bioenergy and land-use are potentially important elements in a strategy to limit anthropogenic climate change. But, significant expansion of bioenergy production can have a large terrestrial footprint. In this paper, we test the implications for land use, the global energy system, carbon cycle, and carbon prices of meeting a specific climate target, using a single fossil fuel and industrial sector policy instrument—the carbon tax, but with five alternative bioenergy and land-use policy architectures. We find that the policies we examined have differing effects on the different segments of the economy. Comprehensive land policies can reduce land-use change emissions, increasing allowable emissions in the energy system, but have implications for the cost of food. Bioenergy taxes and constraints, on the other hand, have little effect on food prices, but can result in increased carbon and energy prices.

  13. Assessing the Role of Energy in Development and Climate Policies - Conceptual Approach and Key Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Garg, Amit

    2011-01-01

    Africa, and some other countries. It concludes that energy plays an important role as a productivity enhancing factor in economic development and in human well being. Several policy goals related to sustainable development, energy, and climate can be integrated. However, meeting all these policy goals......The paper discusses a number of key conceptual issues related to the role of energy in development and its potential synergies and tradeoffs with climate change. The relationship between economic development and energy over time is discussed and illustrated by data from China, India and South...

  14. Greenhouse policy without regrets. A free market approach to the uncertain risks of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adler, J.H. (et al.)

    2000-07-01

    Due to uncertainty about climate change, and human contributions thereto, many policymakers call for 'precautionary' measures to reduce the risk of global warming. Such policies are characterized as 'insurance'. Such insurance against the risks of climate change can be achieved by either lessening the likelihood of change by reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases through a combination of emission controls and carbon sequestration strategies, or by enacting mitigation measures to reduce the possible economic and ecological impact of a potential climate change. No insurance policy is worthwhile if the cost of the premiums exceeds the protection purchased. For greenhouse insurance to be worthwhile, it must either reduce the risks of anthropogenic climate change or reduce the costs of emission reductions designed to achieve the same goal, without imposing off-setting risks, such as those which would result from policies that slow economic growth and technological advance. Currently proposed precautionary measures, such as the Kyoto Protocol, call for government interventions to control greenhouse-gas emissions and suppress the use of carbon-based fuels. Such policies would impose substantial costs and yet do little, if anything, to reduce the risks of climate change. Such policies cannot be characterized as cost-effective greenhouse 'insurance'. Rather than adopt costly regulatory measures that serve to suppress energy use and economic growth, policy makers should seek to eliminate government interventions in the marketplace that obstruct emission reductions and discourage the adoption of lower emission technologies. Such an approach is a 'no regrets' strategy, as these policy recommendations will provide economic and environmental benefits by fostering innovation and economic efficiency whether or not climate change is a serious threat. While fear of global warming may prompt the enactment of these reforms, they

  15. Building Upon Kyoto. The Long Term Prospects of International Climate Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-23

    The first day of this two-day conference reviewed the UNFCCC process and the latest climate science as well as in-depth analyses of different post-2012 regimes that had been proposed to date. The environmental community's view on the future targets was also presented. The second day focused on the current status and challenges of policy implementation in key industrialized countries. The conference was intended to provide vital information for policymakers, experts and the general public in considering long-term international climate policies.

  16. Vulnerability on the Roof of the World: Resilience to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, J. A.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Hu, J.; Nyima, Y.; Boone, R.; Galvin, K.; Kang, S.; Ojima, D. S.

    2010-12-01

    Pastoralists on the Tibetan Plateau are a marginalized people living in an extreme environment and may be especially vulnerable as the system approaches critical thresholds. In Tibet, temperatures are increasing several times more than the global average while the frequency and severity of severe snowstorms is predicted to increase. Pastoralists are also experiencing reduced mobility and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods that include a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing, and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events within the context of changing natural resource policies in China. The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika). We established the experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region (4,870 m) and are monitoring microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, carbon fluxes and stable isotopes. We are investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it is likely to cross critical thresholds, and how resilient this system may be to predicted climate and land use changes. Semi-structured interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climatic and ecological change and vulnerability to snow disasters. To integrate our ecological and social findings, we are coupling an ecosystem model to an agent-based pastoral household model. Our results from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant species and primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to warming. Snow additions can partially mediate this effect. Herders throughout this region share common knowledge about both climatic and ecological changes, but appear to be more closely attuned to

  17. Validity of information security policy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Onome Imoniana

    Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

  18. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

  19. Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica

    2014-11-28

    Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

  20. Assessing the role of energy in development and climate policies in large developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, A.; Halsnaes, K. [UNEP Risoe Centre (Denmark)

    2007-05-15

    The paper discusses a number of key conceptual issues related to the role of energy in development and its potential synergies and tradeoffs with climate change. The relationship between economic development and energy over time is discussed and illustrated by data from Brazil, China, India and South Africa. It is concluded that energy plays an important role as a productivity enhancing factor in economic development and in human well being and several policy goals related to sustainable development (SD), energy and climate can be integrated. However, meeting all these policy goals requires a special effort and can imply costs. An analytical approach that can be used to assess development, energy and climate policies is introduced and empirical indicators of Sustainable development trends for the period 2000-2030 are presented. In a pragmatic way, it is proposed to use indicators of economic, social, and environmental SD dimensions such as costs, employment generation, energy access, local and global emissions, income distribution, and local participation in the evaluation of specific policies. The approach is developed and tested as part of the Development, Energy, and Climate project which is international project cooperation between the UNEP Risoe Centre and teams in Brazil, China, India and South Africa. The results demonstrate that there is a huge potential for energy efficiency improvements in the energy systems in these countries and thereby cost savings and reduced emissions intensity. However, the implied greenhouse gas emissions depend on fuel and technology compositions and reduction will imply that specific policies are put in place. (au)

  1. Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    According to Milankovitch theory of ice ages, glacial cycles are driven by variations in the insolation, i.e. the amount of the incoming solar radiation reaching the Earth. These variations are associated with variations of the Earth's orbit. Many attempts have been made to identify the in uence...... to the orbitally driven variations in insolation. However, the relationship is far from linear, and insolation alone can not explain the climatic variability seen in the records. In the rst part of this thesis, we discuss the possible dynamical mechanisms for linking the frequencies observed in the records...

  2. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  3. Connecting Climate Science to Policy: from Global Food Production to the US Supreme Court

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, D. S.

    2016-12-01

    There are myriad ways climate science has been used to inform on global food security, and to affect law and policy. In this talk, I will summarize examples that include the application of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation science to improve food security in Indonesia and provide water forecasts for agriculture in northwest Mexico, as well as the application of climate change science to project changes in global grain production. In the latter case, reliable information on the impact of increasing greenhouse gases on growing season temperature is applied to assess the impact of climate change on average crop yields, on the volatility in crop yields, and on the loss of yield due to increasing pest pressure - all of which have acute implications for agricultural policy. In the US, climate change science was of paramount importance for the Supreme Court decision in the case "Massachusetts vs. EPA," which to this day greatly shapes US policy related to climate change - most notably in setting emission standards for vehicles. My colleagues and I have learned several lessons from our experiences in these applications of climate science that I will share, including some thoughts on the nature of interdisciplinary teams for producing reliable and effective products, and the on the professional pros and cons of pursuing applied work.

  4. A New Wave of European Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a 2030 Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanrahan, Gina

    2013-06-11

    Against a complex, challenging, and often contradictory background, the EU is currently trying to decide what kind of climate and energy regime it wants and needs in the post-2020 period. Should it replicate the formula of the 2008 Climate and Energy Package to 2030 and beyond? Or are there other pathways that may prove more effective or politically palatable? The European Commission has recently published a consultation paper on a 2030 climate and energy framework and enormous efforts are being expended in Brussels and across the Member States as stakeholders work to shape to terms of the debate. This policy brief attempts to provide an understanding of the current debates and to illuminate the key challenges in designing a new wave of European climate policy. It first sets out the current EU energy and climate framework and discusses progress made to date, before going on to outline a range of key challenges in the design of a 2030 framework. This is the fourth in a series of Environment Nexus policy briefs by experts in the field of climate, energy, agriculture and water.

  5. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Sims

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to briefly discus the current frontiers in quantitative modeling for forecastina and policy analvsis. It does so by summarizing some recent developmenrs in three areas: reduced form forecasting models; theoretical models including elements of stochastic optimization; and identification. In the process, the paper tries to provide some remarks on the direction we seem to be headed. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

  6. Impact of Climate Change on Drylands. Climate variability, livelihood strategies and policy options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verhagen, A. [Plant Research International, Wageningen (Netherlands); Dietz, A.J. [Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies AGIDS, University of Amsterdam UvA, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-09-01

    The findings of the Impact of Climate Change on Drylands (ICCD) project were discussed during a workshop held on 26 and 27 April 2001. The aims of the workshop were to disseminate the findings of the ICCD project, create awareness of the possible effects of climate change and contribute to the dialogue on climate change research in West Africa. Both the workshop and the project were financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP), Centre Technique de Cooperation de Agricole et Rurale (CTA), Wageningen University (INREF), and Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies (AGIDS)

  7. Modeling Hepatitis C treatment policy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuypers, Marshall A.; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Moore, Thomas W.; Glass, Robert John,; Finley, Patrick D.; Ross, David; Chartier, Maggie

    2013-09-01

    Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depth meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.

  8. Climate model uncertainty vs. conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. O. Sonnenborg

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including CO2 emission scenario, climate model, downscaling and impact model. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B. The changes from the reference period (1991–2010 to the future period (2081–2100 in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty on the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow.

  9. Confluence of climate change policies and international trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vickery, R.E. Jr.

    1997-12-31

    The paper summarizes market information on energy conservation and renewable energy industries in the U.S., and highlights activities of the International Trade Administration. International treaties agreements on environmental issues are examined with respect to their influence on U.S. trade promotion and job creation. A sectoral analysis of the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions reductions on industries is very briefly summarized. Finally, the need for a climate change treaty in spite of possible adverse impacts is discussed. 1 tab.

  10. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary E;

    2016-01-01

    findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii......?benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should...

  11. Summary for Policy Makers: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arvizu, Dan; Bruckner, Thomas; Christensen, John; Devernay, Jean-Michel; Faaij , Andre; Fischedick, Manfred; Goldstein, Barry; Hansen, Gerrit; Huckerby , John; Jager-Waldau, Arnulf; Kadner, Susanne; Kammen, Daniel; Krey, Volker; Kumar, Arun; Lewis , Anthony; Lucon, Oswaldo; Matschoss, Patrick; Maurice, Lourdes; Mitchell , Catherine; Moomaw, William; Moreira, Jose; Nadai, Alain; Nilsson, Lars J.; Nyboer, John; Rahman, Atiq; Sathaye, Jayant; Sawin, Janet; Schaeffer, Roberto; Schei, Tormod; Schlomer, Steffen; Sims, Ralph; von Stechow, Christoph; Verbruggen, Aviel; Urama, Kevin; Wiser, Ryan; Yamba, Francis; Zwickel, Timm

    2011-05-08

    The Working Group III Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of the literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of the contribution of six renewable energy (RE) sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is intended to provide policy relevant information to governments, intergovernmental processes and other interested parties. This Summary for Policymakers provides an overview of the SRREN, summarizing the essential findings. The SRREN consists of 11 chapters. Chapter 1 sets the context for RE and climate change; Chapters 2 through 7 provide information on six RE technologies, and Chapters 8 through 11 address integrative issues.

  12. Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tol, R.S.J. [Centre for Marine and Climate Studies, Hamburg University, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg (Germany)

    2001-01-01

    The literature of welfare-maximising greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies pays remarkably little attention to equity. This paper introduces three ways to consider efficiency and equity simultaneously. The first method, inspired by Kant and Rawls, maximises net present welfare, without international cooperation, as if all regions share the fate of the region affected worst by climate change. Optimal emission abatement varies greatly depending on the spatial and temporal resolution, that is, the grid at which 'maximum impact' is defined. The second method is inspired by Varian's no-envy. Emissions are reduced so as to equalise total costs and benefits of climate change over all countries of the world and over all time periods. Emission reductions are substantial. This method approximately preserves the inequities that would occur in a world without climate change. The third method uses non-linear aggregations of welfare (the utilitarian default is linear) in a cooperative setting. This method cannot distinguish between sources of inequity. The higher the aversion to inequity, the higher optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction. 59 refs.

  13. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. How much can disaster and climate science contribute to loss and damage mechanisms in international climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Allen, Simon; Eicken, Hajo; Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2015-04-01

    As the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently has shown, there is increasing evidence of observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. Some of these impacts are negative and result in damage and loss of lives and assets. In international climate policy negotiations under the UNFCCC the discussions on loss and damage have gained significant traction during the past negotiation rounds. At COP 19 the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) was created as an institutional arrangement to address this issue. Thereby, loss and damage (L&D) are typically defined as the residual damage and loss that occur beyond mitigation and adaptation efforts. This implies that effective mitigation and adaptation policy can substantially reduce L&D. While there is wide agreement that knowledge and understanding needs to be strengthened on how L&D due to climate change affects countries, in particular highly vulnerable countries and populations, there is still substantial disagreement on several aspects. In fact, after COP20 in Lima a number of options are on the table, including whether L&D should be located under the adaptation framework or form a separate institutional arrangement, or whether a compensation regime should be established to support developing countries. Similarly, the scientific framework for a clear L&D concept, its application in real-world cases, and implications for international climate policy, in particular with respect to questions of responsibility, liability, compensation and financing, is still evolving. Earlier proposals, for instance, have included a threshold concept, with payments released upon crossing of certain thresholds of climate (related) parameters, similar to insurance procedures. The threshold would be defined as a departure of the parameter from baseline conditions, for instance a rainfall event that is more intense than a certain baseline based threshold. Further

  15. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  16. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  17. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  18. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  19. Teacher-Student Relationship Climate and School Outcomes: Implications for Educational Policy Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barile, John P.; Donohue, Dana K.; Anthony, Elizabeth R.; Baker, Andrew M.; Weaver, Scott R.; Henrich, Christopher C.

    2012-01-01

    In recent discussions regarding concerns about the academic achievement of US students, educational policy makers have suggested the implementation of certain teacher policies. To address the limited empirical research on the putative educational impact of such policies, this study used multilevel structural equation models to investigate the…

  20. Teacher-Student Relationship Climate and School Outcomes: Implications for Educational Policy Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barile, John P.; Donohue, Dana K.; Anthony, Elizabeth R.; Baker, Andrew M.; Weaver, Scott R.; Henrich, Christopher C.

    2012-01-01

    In recent discussions regarding concerns about the academic achievement of US students, educational policy makers have suggested the implementation of certain teacher policies. To address the limited empirical research on the putative educational impact of such policies, this study used multilevel structural equation models to investigate the…

  1. Calculating Air Quality and Climate Co-Benefits Metrics from Adjoint Elasticities in Chemistry-Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spak, S.; Henze, D. K.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2013-12-01

    The science and policy communities both need common metrics that clearly, comprehensively, and intuitively communicate the relative sensitivities of air quality and climate to emissions control strategies, include emissions and process uncertainties, and minimize the range of error that is transferred to the metric. This is particularly important because most emissions control policies impact multiple short-lived climate forcing agents, and non-linear climate and health responses in space and time limit the accuracy and policy value of simple emissions-based calculations. Here we describe and apply new second-order elasticity metrics to support the direct comparison of emissions control policies for air quality and health co-benefits analyses using adjoint chemical transport and chemistry-climate models. Borrowing an econometric concept, the simplest elasticities in the atmospheric system are the percentage changes in concentrations due to a percentage change in the emissions. We propose a second-order elasticity metric, the Emissions Reduction Efficiency, which supports comparison across compounds, to long-lived climate forcing agents like CO2, and to other air quality impacts, at any temporal or spatial scale. These adjoint-based metrics (1) possess a single uncertainty range; (2) allow for the inclusion of related health and other impacts effects within the same framework; (3) take advantage of adjoint and forward sensitivity models; and (4) are easily understood. Using global simulations with the adjoint of GEOS-Chem, we apply these metrics to identify spatial and sectoral variability in the climate and health co-benefits of sectoral emissions controls on black carbon, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5. We find spatial gradients in optimal control strategies on every continent, along with differences among megacities.

  2. 75 FR 8046 - National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Draft Guidance, “Consideration of the Effects of Climate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-23

    ... QUALITY National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Draft Guidance, ``Consideration of the Effects of Climate... Availability, Draft Guidance, ``Consideration of the Effects of Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions... Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Enacted in 1970, NEPA is a fundamental tool used to harmonize our economic...

  3. Climate change adaptation among Tibetan pastoralists: challenges in enhancing local adaptation through policy support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  4. Climate Change Adaptation Among Tibetan Pastoralists: Challenges in Enhancing Local Adaptation Through Policy Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R. Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  5. Modelling climate impacts on the aviation sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul

    2017-04-01

    The climate is changing, not just where we live at ground level, but also where we fly at 35,000 feet. We have long known that air travel contributes to climate change through its emissions. However, we have only recently become aware that climate change could have significant consequences for air travel. This presentation will give an overview of the possible impacts of climate change on the aviation sector. The presentation will describe how the impacts are modelled and how their social and economic costs are estimated. The impacts are discussed in the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO's) latest Environmental Report (Puempel and Williams 2016). Some of the possible impacts are as follows. Rising sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal airports, such as La Guardia in New York, which was flooded by the remnants of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Warmer air at ground level reduces the lift force and makes it more difficult for planes to take-off (Coffel and Horton 2015). More extreme weather may cause flight disruptions and delays. Clear-air turbulence is expected to become up to 40% stronger and twice as common (Williams and Joshi 2013). Transatlantic flights may collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year because of changes to the jet stream, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide (Williams 2016). These modelled impacts provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change. References Coffel E and Horton R (2015) Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation. Weather, Climate, and Society, 7, 94-102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00026.1 Puempel H and Williams PD (2016) The impacts of climate change on aviation: Scientific challenges and adaptation pathways. ICAO Environmental Report 2016: On Board A Sustainable Future, pp 205-207. http

  6. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  7. Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga L. Kupika

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs, address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.Keywords: mainstreaming, biodiversity, wildlife, climate change policy, east and southern Africa

  8. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

  9. Essays on globalization. Policies in trade, development, resources and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerkelae, L.

    2009-07-01

    This research study on globalization consists of an introduction on the methodology applied, a summary and four independent essays focussing on applied policy research in international trade. The study follows the CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) research tradition. The simulation environment is the publicly available GTAP model. The essays examine the specific topics of trade and aid policies, price liberalization of the Russian energy markets, trade preferences in the sugar sector of the EU and the role of carbon sinks in mitigating climate change. The first essay examines trade and aid policies in Mozambique. The essay analyses the impact of alternative options like trade agreements, aid and trade facilitation. The results suggest that Mozambique has very little to gain from trade agreements or the Doha Round, although some agreements with the EU do yield some benefit. Trade facilitation and aid-for-trade programs on the other hand have the potential for larger benefits. The second essay examines the impact of liberalising RussiaAEs energy sector. The analysis is based on the implicit subsidies in regulated prices of electricity and gas and focuses on the effect of the different taxes and subsidies with respect to welfare and GDP in Russia and abroad. Increases in the price of electricity and gas improve efficiency and shift output from domestic markets to exports. The third essay investigates the impact of liberalising the EUAEs sugar sector by taking into account the complex structure of the EU sugar market and preferences in imports for developing countries. The fourth essay focuses on the effects of including carbon sinks into the analysis of the impacts of the Kyoto agreement. (orig.)

  10. Effects of agriculture upon the air quality and climate: research, policy, and regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aneja, Viney P; Schlesinger, William H; Erisman, Jan Willem

    2009-06-15

    Scientific assessments of agricultural air quality, including estimates of emissions and potential sequestration of greenhouse gases, are an important emerging area of environmental science that offers significant challenges to policy and regulatory authorities. Improvements are needed in measurements, modeling, emission controls, and farm operation management. Controlling emissions of gases and particulate matter from agriculture is notoriously difficult as this sector affects the most basic need of humans, i.e., food. Current policies combine an inadequate science covering a very disparate range of activities in a complex industry with social and political overlays. Moreover, agricultural emissions derive from both area and point sources. In the United States, agricultural emissions play an important role in several atmospherically mediated processes of environmental and public health concerns. These atmospheric processes affect local and regional environmental quality, including odor, particulate matter (PM) exposure, eutrophication, acidification, exposure to toxics, climate, and pathogens. Agricultural emissions also contribute to the global problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural emissions are variable in space and time and in how they interact within the various processes and media affected. Most important in the U.S. are ammonia (where agriculture accounts for approximately 90% of total emissions), reduced sulfur (unquantified), PM25 (approximately 16%), PM110 (approximately 18%), methane (approximately 29%), nitrous oxide (approximately 72%), and odor and emissions of pathogens (both unquantified). Agriculture also consumes fossil fuels for fertilizer production and farm operations, thus emitting carbon dioxide (CO2), oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)), sulfur oxides (SO(x)), and particulates. Current research priorities include the quantification of point and nonpoint sources, the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of ammonia, reduced sulfur

  11. Comparing apples and oranges: the dependent variable problem in comparing and evaluating climate change adaptation policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dupuis, J.; Biesbroek, G.R.

    2013-01-01

    An increasing number of studies have compared climate change adaptation policies within and between different countries. In this paper we show that these comparative studies suffer from what is known as the ‘‘dependent variable problem’ – the indistinctness of the phenomenon that is being measured,

  12. The climate challenge: the limits of public policies; Le defi climatique: les limites des politiques publiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourg, D. [Universite de Technologie de Troyes, Centre d' Etudes et de Recherches Interdisciplinaires sur le Developpement Durable, 10 - Troyes (France)

    2003-07-01

    Can democratic societies organize the energy diet imposed by the prevention of climate change? What would be the difficulties to overcome? This challenge could not be met without changing the nature of public policies and without learning how to determine collectively new individual lifestyles, not separable from duties. (author)

  13. Enacting Effective Climate Policy Advice: Institutional Strategies to Foster Saliency, Credibility and Legitimacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Anja; Pregernig, Michael; Reinecke, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    This article asks how scientific advisory institutions (SAIs) in climate policy strive towards effectiveness. Our analysis is grounded on the assumption that effectiveness is not passively experienced but is deliberately enacted by SAIs. We draw on a widely used set of criteria, namely saliency, credibility and legitimacy (SCL). Based on an…

  14. Climate change and the future of freshwater biodiversity in Europe: a primer for policy-makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moss, B.; Hering, D.; Green, A.J.; Aidoud, A.; Becares, E.; Beklioglu, M.; Bennion, H.; Boix, D.; Carvalho, L.; Clement, B.; Davidson, T.; Declerck, S.; Dobson, M.; Donk, van E.; Dudley, B.; Feuchtmayr, H.; Friberg, N.; Grenouillet, G.; Hillebrand, H.; Hobaek, A.; Irvine, K.; Jeppesen, E.; Johnson, R.; Jones, I.; Kernan, M.; Lauridsen, T.L.; Manca, M.; Meerhoff, M.; Olafsson, J.; Ormerod, S.; Papastergiadou, E.; Penning, W.E.; Ptacnik, R.; Quintana, X.; Sandin, L.; Seferlis, M.; Simpson, G.; Triga, C.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.; Weyhenmeyer, G.A.

    2009-01-01

    Earth’s climate is changing, and by the end of the 21st century in Europe, average temperatures are likely to have risen by at least 2 °C, and more likely 4 °C, with associated effects on patterns of precipitation and the frequency of extreme weather events. Attention among policy-makers is divided

  15. Comparing apples and oranges: the dependent variable problem in comparing and evaluating climate change adaptation policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dupuis, J.; Biesbroek, G.R.

    2013-01-01

    An increasing number of studies have compared climate change adaptation policies within and between different countries. In this paper we show that these comparative studies suffer from what is known as the ‘‘dependent variable problem’ – the indistinctness of the phenomenon that is being measured,

  16. Using Online Tools to Assess Public Responses to Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nophea Sasaki

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available As a member of the Annex 1 countries to the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Japan is committed to reducing 6% of the greenhouse gas emissions. In order to achieve this commitment, Japan has undertaken several major mitigation measures, one of which is the domestic measure that includes ecologically friendly lifestyle programs, utilizing natural energy, participating in local environmental activities, and amending environmental laws. Mitigation policies could be achieved if public responses were strong. As the internet has increasingly become an online platform for sharing environmental information, public responses to the need for reducing greenhouse gas emissions may be assessed using available online tools. We used Google Insights for Search, Google AdWords Keyword Tool, and Google Timeline View to assess public responses in Japan based on the interest shown for five search terms that define global climate change and its mitigation policies. Data on online search interests from January 04, 2004 to July 18, 2010 were analyzed according to locations and categories. Our study suggests that the search interests for the five chosen search terms dramatically increased, especially when new mitigation policies were introduced or when climate change related events were organized. Such a rapid increase indicates that the Japanese public strongly responds to climate change mitigation policies.

  17. Recent Trends in National Policy on Education for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laessøe, Jeppe; Mochizuki, Yoko

    2015-01-01

    Climate change education (CCE) is a new phenomenon which is gaining increasing significance in the work of international organizations and international non-governmental organizations. Based primarily on a cross-national desk study of national policy documents relevant to CCE in 17 countries, which was commissioned by UNESCO to gain a robust…

  18. EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks:Operational aspects and link to climate action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Philippe QUEVAUVILLER; Marco GEMMER

    2015-01-01

    Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities:the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration.

  19. Recent Trends in National Policy on Education for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laessøe, Jeppe; Mochizuki, Yoko

    2015-01-01

    Climate change education (CCE) is a new phenomenon which is gaining increasing significance in the work of international organizations and international non-governmental organizations. Based primarily on a cross-national desk study of national policy documents relevant to CCE in 17 countries, which was commissioned by UNESCO to gain a robust…

  20. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Building upon on the smoothness of the response of an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM to changes of four adjustable parameters, Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate the AGCM. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g., how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  1. High dimensional decision dilemmas in climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bracco

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available An important source of uncertainty in climate models is linked to the calibration of model parameters. Interest in systematic and automated parameter optimization procedures stems from the desire to improve the model climatology and to quantify the average sensitivity associated with potential changes in the climate system. Neelin et al. (2010 used a quadratic metamodel to objectively calibrate an atmospheric circulation model (AGCM around four adjustable parameters. The metamodel accurately estimates global spatial averages of common fields of climatic interest, from precipitation, to low and high level winds, from temperature at various levels to sea level pressure and geopotential height, while providing a computationally cheap strategy to explore the influence of parameter settings. Here, guided by the metamodel, the ambiguities or dilemmas related to the decision making process in relation to model sensitivity and optimization are examined. Simulations of current climate are subject to considerable regional-scale biases. Those biases may vary substantially depending on the climate variable considered, and/or on the performance metric adopted. Common dilemmas are associated with model revisions yielding improvement in one field or regional pattern or season, but degradation in another, or improvement in the model climatology but degradation in the interannual variability representation. Challenges are posed to the modeler by the high dimensionality of the model output fields and by the large number of adjustable parameters. The use of the metamodel in the optimization strategy helps visualize trade-offs at a regional level, e.g. how mismatches between sensitivity and error spatial fields yield regional errors under minimization of global objective functions.

  2. [The climate change policy of the city of São Paulo, Brazil: reflexivity and permeability of the health sector].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landin, Rubens; Giatti, Leandro Luiz

    2014-10-01

    São Paulo is today an unsustainable city in which social and environmental vulnerabilities are obliged to tackle the uncertainties of climate change. To face up to this situation, in 2009 the city unveiled its Climate Change Policy. The scope of this paper is to analyze how the health sector is preparing to contribute to the implementation of this policy by 2012. Content analysis was the method adopted by examining official documents and conducting semi-structured interviews. In a context of social transformation affected by environmental degradation and socio-environmental consequences there is a need for the cessation of inertia and a demand for new knowledge systems. The outcomes of the study showed a positive intersectorial dialectic relationship, since the research hypothesis was that the health sector would be called upon to back actions on air quality monitoring. Its verification showed a broad scope introducing health promotion and preventive actions as the determinant focus, especially influencing other public policies. Thus, the process under scrutiny acquired reflexivity when evolving with interactive measures breaking with the traditional sectorial and reductionist policy model. It shows an intersectorial perspective based on the importance of issues related to local public health.

  3. Technology for Climate Change Adaptation in Nepal Himalaya: Policy, Practices and Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, K.; Panthi, J., Sr.

    2016-12-01

    The recent scientific findings and the periodic reports corroborated by IPCC has disclosed the climate change is unequivocal and the Himalayan region is one of the hardest hit by the change and variability in climatic system due to its sensitive ecosystem, low resilience capacity and geographical extremes. Nepal, which lies in the central Himalayan region, has developed its strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change by developing national, regional and local plan of actions which are being implemented and some of them have already been proven. Nepal, as a party to the UNFCCC, has accomplished technology need assessment that identifies the need for new technology, equipment, knowledge and skills for reducing vulnerability to climate change. The plan has recommended an enabling framework for the diffusion of the prioritized technologies and the actions necessary to reduce or remove policy finance and technology related barriers. This paper aims to analyze the technological penetration in national level policy instruments such as NAPA, LAPA, Climate Change Policy and how those technologies have been used in actual field during the implementation of LAPA activities in western Nepal taking two administrative districts, one from low land and another from highland, as a pilot study.

  4. Coastal Blue Carbon: Climate and Coastal Resilience National and International Policy Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton-Grier, A.; McCarty, A.

    2014-12-01

    There is growing interest nationally and internationally in leveraging the carbon benefits (termed "blue carbon") of coastal habitats in climate and coastal resilience policies. Coastal wetlands (specifically mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows) have unique characteristics that make them incredibly efficient, natural carbon sinks with most carbon stored belowground in soils. Protecting and restoring these ecosystems around the globe will help maintain all the societal benefits these ecosystems provide including the natural climate mitigation benefits, but also the food security, water quality, and storm protection benefits that enhance coastal communities and economies. This presentation will focus on some emerging policy opportunities including: (1) incorporation of coastal wetland carbon in U.S. national climate, resilience, and conservation efforts; (2) potential steps to incorporate coastal wetlands in national greenhouse gas inventories as suggested by the 2013 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Wetlands Supplement; and (3) dialogue at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) about blue carbon habitats and their potential for inclusion. The presentation will conclude by highlighting some of the most pressing blue carbon scientific gaps that need to be filled in order to support these developing policies.

  5. Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy integration in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Väätäinen-Chimpuku, S.

    2015-12-01

    Integration of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) policies, their implementation measures and the contribution of these to development has been gaining attention recently. Due to the shared objectives of CCA and particularly Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a component of DRM, their integration provides many benefits. At the implementation level, DRR and CCA are usually integrated. Policy integration, however, is often lacking. This study presents a novel analysis of the policy integration of DRR and CCA by 1) suggesting a definition for their integration at a general and further at horizontal and vertical levels, 2) using an analysis framework for policy integration cycle, which separates the policy formulation and implementation processes, and 3) applying these to a case study in Zambia. Moreover, the study identifies the key gaps in the integration process, obtains an understanding of identified key factors for creating an enabling environment for the integration, and provides recommendations for further progress. The study is based on a document analysis of the relevant DRM, climate change (CC), agriculture, forestry, water management and meteorology policy documents and Acts, and 21 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Horizontal integration has occurred both ways, as the revised DRM policy draft has incorporated CCA, and the new CC policy draft has incorporated DRR. This is not necessarily an optimal strategy and unless carefully implemented, it may create pressure on institutional structures and duplication of efforts in the implementation. Much less vertical integration takes place, and where it does, no guidance on how potential goal conflicts with sectorial and development objectives ought to be handled. The objectives of the instruments show convergence. At the programme stage, the measures are fully integrated as they can be classified as robust CCA measures, providing benefits in the current and future

  6. Coping with Climate Change: A Food Policy Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Timmer, C. Peter

    2013-01-01

    The early drafts of Food Policy Analysis were stimulated by the attention to high food prices following the world food crisis in 1973-74, and the fears of a repeat in 1979-80. But by the fourth full draft, in 1982, it became apparent that surpluses were returning to world food markets. A volume predicated on a world running out of food would have been out of date before the ink was dry, and a full-scale revamping of the analytical messages was needed. After a nearly complete re-write, the new...

  7. Adaptation to Climate Change in European Water Law and Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea M. Keessen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change exacerbates the challenges that water management nowadays has to deal with. This highlights the need for a legal framework that promotes adaptation by addressing the ecological value of water and the risks of flooding and drought. This paper analyzes to what extent the European legal framework meets this need. This is evaluated by analyzing to what extent the Water Framework Directive, the Floods Directive and the Water Scarcity and Drought Strategy build resilience. Resilience is an important concept in the adaptation to climate change discourse. It refers to the capacity of a social-ecological system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks. This paper uses five criteria to measure this: (1 the flexibility of rules and (2 the adaptiveness of such rules (3 openness, public participation and access to the courts (4 multilevel governance at the bioregional scale and (5 effectiveness. The European legal framework partly meets these criteria. It offers a river basin approach and both the setting of goals and objectives and their achievement is a multilevel, cyclical process, which includes public participation. However, the achievement of the goals is not easily enforceable and coordination within international river basins is legally weak. This detracts from the expected effectiveness of the EU legal framework in promoting adaptation by protecting the aquatic ecosystem and reducing flood and drought risks.

  8. A method for the deliberate and deliberative selection of policy instrument mixes for climate change adaptation

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    Heleen L. P. Mees

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Policy instruments can help put climate adaptation plans into action. Here, we propose a method for the systematic assessment and selection of policy instruments for stimulating adaptation action. The multi-disciplinary set of six assessment criteria is derived from economics, policy, and legal studies. These criteria are specified for the purpose of climate adaptation by taking into account four challenges to the governance of climate adaptation: uncertainty, spatial diversity, controversy, and social complexity. The six criteria and four challenges are integrated into a step-wise method that enables the selection of instruments starting from a generic assessment and ending with a specific assessment of policy instrument mixes for the stimulation of a specific adaptation measure. We then apply the method to three examples of adaptation measures. The method's merits lie in enabling deliberate choices through a holistic and comprehensive set of adaptation specific criteria, as well as deliberative choices by offering a stepwise method that structures an informed dialog on instrument selection. Although the method was created and applied by scientific experts, policy-makers can also use the method.

  9. CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Glen P; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2008-03-01

    The flow of pollution through international trade flows has the ability to undermine environmental policies, particularly for global pollutants. In this article we determine the CO2 emissions embodied in international trade among 87 countries for the year 2001. We find that globally there are over 5.3 Gt of CO2 embodied in trade and that Annex B countries are net importers of CO2 emissions. Depending on country characteristics--such as size variables and geographic location--there are considerable variations in the embodied emissions. We argue that emissions embodied in trade may have a significant impact on participation in and effectiveness of global climate policies such as the Kyoto Protocol. We discuss several policy options to reduce the impact of trade in global climate policy. If countries take binding commitments as a part of a coalition, instead of as individual countries, then the impacts of trade can be substantially reduced. Adjusting emission inventories for trade gives a more consistent description of a country's environmental pressures and circumvents many trade related issues. It also gives opportunities to exploit trade as a means of mitigating emissions. Not least, a better understanding of the role that trade plays in a country's economic and environmental development will help design more effective and participatory climate policy post-Kyoto.

  10. Explaining the evolution of European Union foreign climate policy: A case of bounded adaptiveness

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    Simon Schunz

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Ever since the inception of the United Nations climate regime in the early 1990s, the European Union has aspired to play a leading part in the global combat against climate change. Based on an analysis of how the Union has developed its foreign climate policy to fulfil this role over the past two decades, the paper sets out to identify the driving factors behind this evolution. It demonstrates that the EU’s development in this area was co-determined by adaptations to shifting international dynamics strongly bounded by purely domestic concerns. Providing a concise understanding and explanation of how the Union designs its foreign policy with regard to one emblematic issue of its international activity, the contribution provides insights into the remarkably rapid, but not always effective maturation of this unique actor’s involvement in global politics.

  11. Equity and the Global Policy on Climate Change: A Law and Economic Perspective

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    Andri Gunawan Wibisana

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The opponents of the global commitment to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs emissions seem to have shifted their arguments from the one emphasising on the issue of uncertainty to the one focusing on the economic burdens disproportionately placed on the current generation in general, and some developed countries in particular. Inevitably, the issue of equity becomes of highly importance in the recent climate policy debates. This paper attempts to analyze the implementation of equity principles, i.e. intergenerational and intragenerational equity, in the global climate policy. In doing so, it will first briefly outline some prominent economic appraisals on the impacts of climate change. Afterwards, some proposals to incorporate equity into the economic appraisals will be analyzed. Emphasizing on the concepts of equity, this paper will finally offer some recommendations for post-Kyoto negotiations.

  12. A balance of bottom-up and top-down in linking climate policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Jessica F.; Sterner, Thomas; Wagner, Gernot

    2014-12-01

    Top-down climate negotiations embodied by the Kyoto Protocol have all but stalled, chiefly because of disagreements over targets and objections to financial transfers. To avoid those problems, many have shifted their focus to linkage of bottom-up climate policies such as regional carbon markets. This approach is appealing, but we identify four obstacles to successful linkage: different levels of ambition; competing domestic policy objectives; objections to financial transfers; and the difficulty of close regulatory coordination. Even with a more decentralized approach, overcoming the 'global warming gridlock' of the intergovernmental negotiations will require close international coordination. We demonstrate how a balance of bottom-up and top-down elements can create a path toward an effe